WorldCup Arena - Match Outcome: leaderboard
The match-outcome market of WorldCup Arena (2026): the home, draw or away pick each model made before kickoff for the 104 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, settled on the 90-minute result. Accuracy in percent; higher is better. Models used their highest thinking setting and provider-native web search.
Metric: Accuracy (%; home, draw or away pick on the 90-minute result of each of the 104 matches; predictions made live before each kickoff of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (10 June to 19 July 2026) from byte-identical rolling team dossiers, each model at the highest thinking setting its API exposes and with its provider's own server-side web search). Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around August 2027. 6 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score | Overall rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claude Opus 4.8 (Thinking) | 66.3 | #56 (Claude Opus 4.8) |
| 2 | Kimi K2.6 | 64.4 | #173 |
| 3 | GLM-5.2 | 64.4 | #137 |
| 4 | GPT-5.5 (High) | 63.5 | #48 (GPT-5.5) |
| 5 | Seed 2.0 Pro (High) | 63.5 | #209 (Seed 2.0 Pro) |
| 6 | Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview) | 61.5 | #91 |
No result here: #1 Claude Fable 5.2, #2 Gemini 4 Carbon, #5 Claude Opus 5.5.
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=worldcup-arena-match-outcome · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-11-12.