TopBench - Treatment Effect: leaderboard
Metric: Trend accuracy (0 to 1) on TopBench's 105 treatment-effect questions, which ask whether a counterfactual change to a profile raises or lowers its outcome given a historical table, answered from the serialized table (header kept, rows randomly sampled when it exceeds the context budget) without tools: share of questions whose predicted direction matches the reference; values and decisions extracted from the free-text answer by a DeepSeek-V3.2 judge and checked against the answer text; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around January 2027. 8 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 3 Flash | 0.62 |
| 2 | DeepSeek V3.2 | 0.59 |
| 3 | DeepSeek V3.2 (Thinking) | 0.59 |
| 4 | Qwen 3 235B A22B 2507 Instruct | 0.55 |
| 5 | GPT-5.2 | 0.51 |
| 6 | Qwen 3 235B A22B 2507 (Thinking) | 0.46 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=topbench-treatment-effect · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-07.