TFRBench - Web Traffic - Forecasting Correctness: leaderboard
Metric: Mean LLM-judge score (1-5) for forecasting correctness of the model's chain-of-thought forecasting reasoning on the TFRBench daily web traffic (Monash archive, web/cloud operations) windows, judged by Gemini 3 Pro against the benchmark's verified reference reasoning (w/ Reasoning setting: the model reasons step by step from the history window, then forecasts; no tools; mean of three runs); higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around March 2027. 5 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 3 Pro | 3.17 |
| 2 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | 2.9 |
| 3 | Gemini 2.5 Pro | 2.83 |
| 4 | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2.33 |
| 5 | Claude Sonnet 4 | 2.1 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=tfrbench-web-traffic-forecasting-correctness · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-07.