TFRBench - Amazon Pricing - Forecasting Correctness: leaderboard
Metric: Mean LLM-judge score (1-5) for forecasting correctness of the model's chain-of-thought forecasting reasoning on the TFRBench daily Amazon stock pricing, five channels (finance) windows, judged by Gemini 3 Pro against the benchmark's verified reference reasoning (w/ Reasoning setting: the model reasons step by step from the history window, then forecasts; no tools; mean of three runs); higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around June 2028. 5 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2.01 |
| 2 | Gemini 3 Pro | 1.83 |
| 3 | Claude Sonnet 4 | 1.68 |
| 4 | Gemini 2.5 Pro | 1.49 |
| 5 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | 1.47 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=tfrbench-amazon-pricing-forecasting-correctness · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-07.