SocietyBench - Temporal Accuracy: leaderboard

Metric: Temporal score (0-100): 100 x (1 - weighted normalized date miss within 30-day buckets up to 90 days after the cutoff); five real social events (Wuhan Library, US-Iran, TikTok, SMCI, Trump Tariff) anonymized into counterfactual worlds, 25 prediction points each, averaged over the Chinese and English editions; temperature 0; trivial anchor 50. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around December 2026. 6 models tracked.

Top models

#ModelScore
1GPT-5.574.6
2Claude Opus 4.870
3Gemini 3.5 Flash67.3
4DeepSeek V4 Pro64.9
5Kimi K2.563.6
6Seed 2.0 Pro62.6

Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=societybench-temporal-accuracy · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-29.