SDABench - Predictive (MCQ): leaderboard
SDABench (2026) predictive tasks, which estimate unknown observations or future states from measured variables, on held-out synthetic scientific datasets from five domains, posed as four-option multiple choice with perturbation-based distractors. The score is accuracy in percent, with 25 percent at chance; higher is better.
Metric: Accuracy (%) of four-option multiple-choice answers with perturbation-based distractors on the held-out SDA-Synth test split (the 400 predictive analysis instances; zero-shot; 25% chance); higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around May 2027. 13 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score | Overall rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview) | 63.75 | #94 |
| 2 | GPT-5.4 | 58.25 | #123 |
| 3 | Qwen 3 235B A22B 2507 Instruct | 49.5 | #619 |
| 4 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 48 | #161 |
| 5 | DeepSeek V3.2 | 47.75 | #406 |
| 6 | GLM-5 | 41 | #260 |
| 7 | GPT-5.4 Mini | 39.75 | #389 |
| 8 | DeepSeek R1 | 36.5 | #473 |
| 9 | Qwen 3.5 397B A17B | 35.25 | #246 |
| 10 | Llama 3.3 70B Instruct | 28.25 | #1357 |
| 11 | Kimi K2.5 | 25.75 | #256 |
| 12 | Llama 3.1 8B Instruct | 24.75 | #4246 |
No result here: #1 Claude Fable 5.2, #2 Gemini 4 Carbon, #5 Claude Opus 5.5.
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=sdabench-predictive-mcq · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-11-13.