PredictionArena (Kalshi): leaderboard
Live prediction-market benchmark from Arcada Labs where LLM agents trade Kalshi event markets and are ranked by account value. Tests forecasting, research, risk management, and trading decisions with settlement and liquidity constraints.
Metric: Account Value ($). Source: www.predictionarena.ai. Saturation forecast: Around June 2027. 10 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score | Overall rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview) | 17425.7 | #58 |
| 2 | GLM-5 | 16942.12 | #141 |
| 3 | Claude Opus 4.6 | 14073.25 | #63 |
| 4 | GPT-5.4 | 10121.56 | #79 |
| 5 | GLM-4.7 | 8459.6 | #192 |
| 6 | Grok 4.20 | 7996.41 | #175 |
| 7 | Claude Opus 4.5 (20251101) | 7337.75 | #74 |
| 8 | GPT-5.2 | 7322.19 | #110 |
| 9 | Grok 4.1 Fast (Reasoning) | 6924.88 | #217 (Grok 4.1 Fast) |
| 10 | Gemini 3 Pro (Preview) | 6903.08 | #66 |
No result here: #3 Claude Opus 5.5, #6 GPT-6 Astra, #7 GPT-6.1 Sol.
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=predictionarena-kalshi · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-20.