PersonalHomeBench - Counterfactual Reasoning (Sole Reasoning): leaderboard
Metric: Accuracy (%) on 2,000 counterfactual questions, macro-averaged over the variants that change and that keep the ground-truth answer (exact match, else a Gemini 2.5 Pro semantic-equivalence judge), over the text-based split of PersonalHomeBench (1,100 generated, manually reviewed households with persona-based occupants and appliances), temperature 0, in the sole-reasoning setting (no tools; the full household context, occupant profiles and memories are given in the prompt); each model at its stated reasoning mode; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around January 2027. 11 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-OSS-20B (High) | 74 |
| 2 | GPT-4 | 73.45 |
| 3 | GPT-OSS-20B | 72.81 |
| 4 | GPT-OSS-20B (Low) | 72.8 |
| 5 | GPT-4o | 71.3 |
| 6 | Qwen 3 4B (Reasoning) | 71 |
| 7 | nemotron-3-nano-30B-a3B | 70.83 |
| 8 | Qwen 3 4B (Non-reasoning) | 67.5 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=personalhomebench-counterfactual-reasoning-sole-reasoning · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-07.