NoisyCausal - Irrelevant Variable: leaderboard
Causal reasoning under structured noise (NoisyCausal; Xu and Fu, 2026), irrelevant variable condition: random 3-7 variable causal graphs are grounded in medicine, education or economics scenarios and the model answers an interventional, counterfactual or attributional question whose answer follows from the clean model, with injected non-causal variables that correlate spuriously with the outcome in the story. Accuracy in percent, higher is better.
Metric: Accuracy (%; synthetic structural-causal-model questions with injected non-causal variables that correlate spuriously with the outcome). Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Estimated already saturated. 4 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score | Overall rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-4 | 56.3 | #996 |
| 2 | GPT-3.5 | 49.6 | #2430 |
No result here: #1 Claude Fable 5.2, #2 Gemini 4 Carbon, #5 Claude Opus 5.5.
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=noisycausal-irrelevant-variable · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-11-12.