MiGUE-Bench - Event Prediction: leaderboard

Metric: Accuracy (%) on 300 next-event prediction multiple-choice questions with LLM-built distractors over news document sequences; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around 2028. 12 models tracked.

Top models

#ModelScore
1Gemini 3 Pro58.14
2Claude Opus 4.555.44
3DeepSeek V3.252.1
4Kimi K251.5
5GLM-4.748.67
6Qwen 3 Max45.85
7Claude Haiku 4.544.52
8Qwen 3 235B A22B43.52
9GPT-5.2 Pro42.31
10Qwen 3 30B A3B35.22
11Qwen 3 8B33.55

Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=migue-bench-event-prediction · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-29.