MiGUE-Bench - Event Prediction: leaderboard
The event prediction task of MiGUE-Bench (2026), a benchmark of event analysis over news documents: accuracy in percent on 300 multiple-choice questions asking which event follows a sequence of news documents, with LLM-built distractors. Higher is better.
Metric: Accuracy (%) on 300 next-event prediction multiple-choice questions with LLM-built distractors over news document sequences; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around November 2027. 12 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score | Overall rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 3 Pro | 58.14 | #137 |
| 2 | Claude Opus 4.5 | 55.44 | #156 |
| 3 | DeepSeek V3.2 | 52.1 | #406 |
| 4 | Kimi K2 | 51.5 | #439 |
| 5 | GLM-4.7 | 48.67 | #366 |
| 6 | Qwen 3 Max | 45.85 | #403 |
| 7 | Claude Haiku 4.5 | 44.52 | #568 |
| 8 | Qwen 3 235B A22B | 43.52 | #623 |
| 9 | GPT-5.2 Pro | 42.31 | #124 |
| 10 | Qwen 3 30B A3B | 35.22 | #1122 |
| 11 | Qwen 3 8B | 33.55 | #1830 |
No result here: #1 Claude Fable 5.2, #2 Gemini 4 Carbon, #5 Claude Opus 5.5.
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=migue-bench-event-prediction · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-11-13.