KellyBench - Strategy Sophistication: leaderboard
Metric: Strategy sophistication (% of the 52-point expert rubric of 45 criteria on feature development, modelling, wagering and handling non-stationarity, built with practitioners from quantitative betting funds), averaged over five seeds on KellyBench's sequential simulation of the 2023/24 English Premier League season, where the agent builds betting models from historical data, lineups and public odds and places bets matchday by matchday from a 100,000 GBP bankroll (ReSum harness, maximum reasoning budget with interleaved thinking, 500-1000 tool calls per episode), five seeds; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around 2029. 5 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claude Opus 4.6 (Max) | 26.5 |
| 2 | GPT-5.4 (xHigh) | 22.3 |
| 3 | GLM-5 (Thinking) | 17.3 |
| 4 | Kimi K2.5 (Thinking) | 12.7 |
| 5 | Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview) | 8.8 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=kellybench-strategy-sophistication · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-07.