KellyBench: leaderboard
Metric: Average return on investment (%, -100 is ruin, unbounded above) over five seeds on KellyBench's sequential simulation of the 2023/24 English Premier League season, where the agent builds betting models from historical data, lineups and public odds and places bets matchday by matchday from a 100,000 GBP bankroll (ReSum harness, maximum reasoning budget with interleaved thinking, 500-1000 tool calls per episode), five seeds; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around July 2027. 5 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-5.4 (xHigh) | -7.9 |
| 2 | Claude Opus 4.6 (Max) | -11.2 |
| 3 | GLM-5 (Thinking) | -51.6 |
| 4 | Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview) | -66 |
| 5 | Kimi K2.5 (Thinking) | -89.6 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=kellybench · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-07.