Hedge-Bench - Risk Pass@1: leaderboard

Metric: Pass@1 (%): share of trials in the Risk task category that earned a perfect 4 of 4 rubric score; 102 open-ended financial-analyst research tasks derived from recorded expert analyst discussions, run in the Harbor harness with the Terminus 2 agent over a sandboxed document corpus, eight trials per task, graded by a Gemini-3.1-Pro judge against expert rubric moves with hallucination-supported moves discounted; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around 2030. 8 models tracked.

Top models

#ModelScore
1Claude Sonnet 4.612.4
2Gemini 3.5 Flash5.7
3Claude Opus 4.85.6
4Claude Opus 4.75.4
5GPT-5.51.8
6Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview)1.7
7Claude Haiku 4.50.9
8GPT-5.4 Mini0

Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=hedge-bench-risk-pass-1 · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-29.