Hedge-Bench - Risk: leaderboard

Metric: Macro dense mean rubric score (out of 4) on the Risk task category: each trial scores 0 to 4 by the themes it covers, 4 only with full coverage plus a synthesis that reconciles conflicting evidence, averaged within each task and then over the tasks where the model had a valid run; 102 open-ended financial-analyst research tasks derived from recorded expert analyst discussions, run in the Harbor harness with the Terminus 2 agent over a sandboxed document corpus, eight trials per task, graded by a Gemini-3.1-Pro judge against expert rubric moves with hallucination-supported moves discounted; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around June 2028. 8 models tracked.

Top models

#ModelScore
1Claude Sonnet 4.61.75
2Claude Opus 4.71.58
3Claude Opus 4.81.51
4Gemini 3.5 Flash1.31
5GPT-5.51.3
6Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview)0.95
7Claude Haiku 4.50.92
8GPT-5.4 Mini0.53

Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=hedge-bench-risk · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-29.