Guesswork: leaderboard

This site's own live benchmark for predicting benchmark scores: frontier and budget LLMs forecast newly published (model, benchmark) results a day before they land, scored in per-benchmark z-units (MAE, lower is better) against the same-information statistical baseline The Aggregate.

Source: theaggregate.ai. Status: years away from saturation.

Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=guesswork · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-05.