General365 - Probability & Uncertainty: leaderboard
Metric: Accuracy (%) on the problems labelled Probability & Uncertainty (a problem may carry several challenge labels), out of 1,460 problems (365 hand-written seeds and 1,095 expansions); numeric answers checked with math-verify, choice and text answers graded by GPT-4.1; temperature 1.0 for reasoning and 0.7 for chat models, highest available reasoning effort; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around January 2027. 26 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 3 Flash | 60.2 |
| 2 | GPT-5 (High) | 59.1 |
| 3 | Qwen 3.5 397B A17B (Thinking) | 59.1 |
| 4 | GLM-4.7 (Thinking) | 58 |
| 5 | GLM-5 (Thinking) | 56.8 |
| 6 | DeepSeek V3.2 Speciale | 55.7 |
| 7 | Gemini 3 Pro | 54.5 |
| 8 | Kimi K2.5 (Thinking) | 54.5 |
| 9 | DeepSeek V3.2 (Thinking) | 53.4 |
| 10 | Qwen 3 Max (Thinking) | 53.4 |
| 11 | Kimi K2 (Thinking) | 52.3 |
| 12 | LongCat-Flash-Thinking-2601 | 51.1 |
| 13 | DeepSeek V3.1 (Thinking) | 50 |
| 14 | GPT-5.1 (High) | 47.7 |
| 15 | O4 Mini (High) | 47.7 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=general365-probability-uncertainty · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-07.