ForecastBench Baseline - Zero-Shot - Market: leaderboard
Metric: Market Brier Index (difficulty-adjusted, higher is better). Source: www.forecastbench.org. 80 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-4.5 (Preview) | 61.8 |
| 2 | Grok 4.20 0309 (Reasoning) | 61.7 |
| 3 | Claude Opus 4.1 (20250805) | 61.7 |
| 4 | Grok Beta | 61.4 |
| 5 | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 61.3 |
| 6 | GPT-5.5 | 61.1 |
| 7 | Grok 4.20 Beta (0309) (Reasoning) | 61.1 |
| 8 | GLM-5 | 60.9 |
| 9 | Grok 4.3 | 60.9 |
| 10 | O4 Mini (2025-04-16) | 60.8 |
| 11 | O3 (2025-04-16) | 60.7 |
| 12 | Llama 3.3 70B Instruct | 60.5 |
| 13 | Claude Haiku 4.5 (20251001) | 60.4 |
| 14 | Claude Sonnet 4 (20250514) | 60.3 |
| 15 | Llama 3 8B Chat Base | 60.3 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=forecastbench-baseline-zero-shot-market · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-19.