ForecastBench Baseline - Scratchpad - Overall: leaderboard
Metric: Overall Brier Index (difficulty-adjusted, higher is better). Source: www.forecastbench.org. 36 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | O3 (2025-04-16) | 61.7 |
| 2 | Claude 3.7 Sonnet (20250219) | 60.9 |
| 3 | Claude Opus 4.1 (20250805) | 60.9 |
| 4 | O4 Mini (2025-04-16) | 60.8 |
| 5 | GPT-4.1 | 60.5 |
| 6 | Claude Opus 4 (20250514) | 60.3 |
| 7 | GPT-4.5 (Preview) | 60.3 |
| 8 | Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022) | 59.9 |
| 9 | Gemini 2.5 Flash (Preview 04-17) | 59.5 |
| 10 | DeepSeek R1 | 59.1 |
| 11 | Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20240620) | 58.5 |
| 12 | Claude Sonnet 4 (20250514) | 58.4 |
| 13 | Gemini 1.5 Pro | 58.3 |
| 14 | DeepSeek V3 | 58.2 |
| 15 | QwQ 32B-Preview | 57.5 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=forecastbench-baseline-scratchpad-overall · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-19.