ForecastBench Baseline - Scratchpad - Market: leaderboard
Metric: Market Brier Index (difficulty-adjusted, higher is better). Source: www.forecastbench.org. 36 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | O3 (2025-04-16) | 63.1 |
| 2 | Claude Opus 4.1 (20250805) | 61.9 |
| 3 | Claude 3.7 Sonnet (20250219) | 61.5 |
| 4 | O4 Mini (2025-04-16) | 61.2 |
| 5 | Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022) | 61.1 |
| 6 | GPT-4.1 | 60.7 |
| 7 | Claude Opus 4 (20250514) | 59.8 |
| 8 | GPT-4.5 (Preview) | 59.4 |
| 9 | DeepSeek R1 | 59.3 |
| 10 | Gemini 1.5 Pro | 59 |
| 11 | Claude Sonnet 4 (20250514) | 58.9 |
| 12 | Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20240620) | 58.5 |
| 13 | Gemini 2.5 Flash (Preview 04-17) | 58.4 |
| 14 | QwQ 32B-Preview | 58.3 |
| 15 | GPT-4o (2024-05-13) | 57.9 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=forecastbench-baseline-scratchpad-market · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-19.