ForecastBench Baseline - Scratchpad - Dataset: leaderboard
Metric: Dataset Brier Index (difficulty-adjusted, higher is better). Source: www.forecastbench.org. 36 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-4.5 (Preview) | 61.2 |
| 2 | Claude Opus 4 (20250514) | 60.9 |
| 3 | Gemini 2.5 Flash (Preview 04-17) | 60.7 |
| 4 | O4 Mini (2025-04-16) | 60.5 |
| 5 | O3 (2025-04-16) | 60.4 |
| 6 | GPT-4.1 | 60.3 |
| 7 | Claude 3.7 Sonnet (20250219) | 60.2 |
| 8 | Claude Opus 4.1 (20250805) | 59.8 |
| 9 | DeepSeek R1 | 58.8 |
| 10 | DeepSeek V3 | 58.7 |
| 11 | O3 Mini (2025-01-31) | 58.7 |
| 12 | Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022) | 58.6 |
| 13 | Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20240620) | 58.6 |
| 14 | Claude Sonnet 4 (20250514) | 58 |
| 15 | Gemini 1.5 Pro | 57.7 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=forecastbench-baseline-scratchpad-dataset · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-19.