Dr-CiK - Codex Evidence: leaderboard
Metric: Scaled CRPS (mean over 225 tasks, per-task values winsorized at 5; 25 sampled trajectories; forecaster given Codex-synthesized evidence). Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around May 2027. 6 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Qwen 3.5 9B | 0.3 |
| 2 | Qwen 3.5 4B | 0.31 |
| 3 | Qwen 3.5 27B | 0.32 |
| 4 | Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite (Preview) | 0.33 |
| 5 | Mistral Medium 3.1 | 0.38 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=dr-cik-codex-evidence · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-25.