DDx-TRACE - Confidence Alignment: leaderboard
Metric: Final-turn confidence alignment (-1 to 1): probability on exact or acceptable diagnoses minus probability on unmatched diagnoses on DDx-TRACE (211 physician-adjudicated multimodal neuroradiology cases), the model starts from limited history, requests imaging in free form (at most 6 requests), updates a four-item probabilistic differential after each turn and stops with a localized diagnosis, provider default decoding; endpoints judged against case rubrics by Gemini 3 Flash at temperature 0; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around January 2027. 13 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 3 Flash | 0.53 |
| 2 | Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview) | 0.5 |
| 3 | GPT-5.4 | 0.18 |
| 4 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 0.12 |
| 5 | GPT-5.4 Mini | 0.04 |
| 6 | Qwen 3.5 35B A3B | 0.02 |
| 7 | Qwen 3.5 27B | -0.07 |
| 8 | Gemma 3 27B | -0.23 |
| 9 | Qwen 3.5 9B | -0.27 |
| 10 | MedGemma-27B-IT | -0.27 |
| 11 | Qwen 3.5 4B | -0.36 |
| 12 | Lingshu-32B | -0.42 |
| 13 | MedGemma 1.5 4B | -0.63 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=ddx-trace-confidence-alignment · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-10-07.