CausalDS - Pass Rate: leaderboard
Metric: Pass rate (%; share correct on the discrete slice, which pools binary content answers and abstention decisions; a task is graded as an abstention binary when the truth is non-identifiable or the model abstains, so the slice holds 34 to 38 tasks per model; missing answers count as failures; on a 100-scene realistic exam of Pearl-ladder causal data-science tasks (28 associational, 51 interventional, 21 counterfactual) over SCM-generated data files, solved in the mini-swe-agent harness with at most 100 steps). Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around December 2026. 6 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-5.5 (High) | 82.4 |
| 2 | Claude Opus 4.8 (High) | 82.4 |
| 3 | Gemini 3.1 Pro (Preview) | 76.5 |
| 4 | Kimi K2.6 | 65.7 |
| 5 | Qwen 3.6 35B A3B | 63.2 |
| 6 | Gemma 4 26B | 55.9 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=causalds-pass-rate · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-29.