BehaviorBench (Behavioral Traces) - Trade Direction (RetrievalGen): leaderboard
Metric: Direction accuracy (%): predicted BUY or SELL of the next transaction; history interface RetrievalGen (behaviorally similar examples retrieved from a disjoint support pool of wallets); 2,000 pseudonymous prediction-market wallets reconstructed from public Polymarket metadata and Polygon on-chain logs, about 59,560 chronologically held-out test transactions; unparsable outputs count as failures; chance 50, context-only baseline 52.85; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around July 2027. 11 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-5.4 | 68.86 |
| 2 | Claude 3.7 Sonnet | 66.67 |
| 3 | GPT-5.4 Mini | 65.07 |
| 4 | Claude Opus 4 | 63.92 |
| 5 | Gemma 3 27B (IT) | 60.55 |
| 6 | Llama 4 Scout Instruct | 60.46 |
| 7 | NVIDIA-Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B-BF16 | 60.2 |
| 8 | GPT-OSS-20B | 59.99 |
| 9 | Gemma 3 12B (IT) | 59.82 |
| 10 | Ministral-3-14B-Instruct-2512 | 50.67 |
| 11 | GPT-5.4 Nano | 50.38 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=behaviorbench-behavioral-traces-trade-direction-retrievalgen · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-29.