BehaviorBench (Behavioral Traces) - Belief Choice (DirectGen): leaderboard
Metric: Choice accuracy (%): predicted final revealed side (YES or NO) of the wallet in the target market; history interface DirectGen (the target wallet's most recent visible history, up to 30 events for Belief); 2,000 pseudonymous prediction-market wallets reconstructed from public Polymarket metadata and Polygon on-chain logs, 22,204 chronologically held-out wallet-market test instances; chance 50, context-only baseline 53.13; higher is better. Source: arxiv.org. Saturation forecast: Around December 2027. 11 models tracked.
Top models
| # | Model | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-5.4 | 70.75 |
| 2 | Claude Opus 4 | 70.22 |
| 3 | Gemma 3 12B (IT) | 70.21 |
| 4 | Gemma 3 27B (IT) | 70.08 |
| 5 | Claude 3.7 Sonnet | 67.68 |
| 6 | GPT-5.4 Mini | 66.34 |
| 7 | GPT-OSS-20B | 66 |
| 8 | GPT-5.4 Nano | 65.8 |
| 9 | Llama 4 Scout Instruct | 64.77 |
| 10 | Ministral-3-14B-Instruct-2512 | 59.82 |
| 11 | NVIDIA-Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B-BF16 | 58.63 |
Interactive version: theaggregate.ai/benchmark?slug=behaviorbench-behavioral-traces-belief-choice-directgen · How It Works · Data refreshed daily, snapshot 2026-09-29.