{"schema_version":1,"benchmark":"The Aggregate - Chart Recall","shape_benchmark":"The Aggregate - Chart Recall - Shape","run_start":"2026-11-10","run_end":"2026-11-10","months":["2016-01","2016-02","2016-03","2016-04","2016-05","2016-06","2016-07","2016-08","2016-09","2016-10","2016-11","2016-12","2017-01","2017-02","2017-03","2017-04","2017-05","2017-06","2017-07","2017-08","2017-09","2017-10","2017-11","2017-12","2018-01","2018-02","2018-03","2018-04","2018-05","2018-06","2018-07","2018-08","2018-09","2018-10","2018-11","2018-12","2019-01","2019-02","2019-03","2019-04","2019-05","2019-06","2019-07","2019-08","2019-09","2019-10","2019-11","2019-12","2020-01","2020-02","2020-03","2020-04","2020-05","2020-06","2020-07","2020-08","2020-09","2020-10","2020-11","2020-12","2021-01","2021-02","2021-03","2021-04","2021-05","2021-06","2021-07","2021-08","2021-09","2021-10","2021-11","2021-12","2022-01","2022-02","2022-03","2022-04","2022-05","2022-06","2022-07","2022-08","2022-09","2022-10","2022-11","2022-12","2023-01","2023-02","2023-03","2023-04","2023-05","2023-06","2023-07","2023-08","2023-09","2023-10","2023-11","2023-12","2024-01","2024-02","2024-03","2024-04","2024-05","2024-06","2024-07","2024-08","2024-09","2024-10","2024-11","2024-12","2025-01","2025-02","2025-03","2025-04","2025-05","2025-06","2025-07","2025-08","2025-09","2025-10","2025-11","2025-12"],"system_prompt":"You answer from your own knowledge. You have no tools and cannot look anything up.","prompt_template":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"{title}\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","scoring":{"overall":"Mean across articles of RMSE between predicted and real log10(max(value, 1)) monthly views; lower is better.","shape":"Mean across articles of Pearson correlation between predicted and real log10(max(value, 1)) monthly views; higher is better, from -1 to 1. A constant curve scores 0.","missing_prediction":"A null prediction is a final unparsable answer, not a model-drawn flat line. For grading only, use that article's flat_reference_value for all 120 months. Its shape correlation is 0.","flat_reference":"10 raised to the mean of the other 196 articles' mean log10(max(real views, 1)). The article being scored is left out."},"models":[{"id":"openai/gpt-6.1-terra","name":"GPT-6.1 Terra","mean_log10_rmse":0.27246839085395685,"mean_log10_pearson":0.44347849739824385,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"openai/gpt-6.1-terra","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":196,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"google/gemini-4-carbon","name":"Gemini 4 Carbon","mean_log10_rmse":0.27259770675833433,"mean_log10_pearson":0.5794558175057594,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"google/gemini-4-carbon","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":28,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120,"pilot_max_output_tokens":16000}},{"id":"google/gemini-3.8-flash","name":"Gemini 3.8 Flash","mean_log10_rmse":0.27925157479282164,"mean_log10_pearson":0.5032597213795423,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"google/gemini-3.8-flash","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"claude-opus-5-5","name":"Claude Opus 5.5","mean_log10_rmse":0.28583504527959824,"mean_log10_pearson":0.3848652325104837,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"claude-opus-5-5","route":"claude_cli","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":null,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120,"output_limit":"CLI default; not recorded"}},{"id":"claude-fable-5-2","name":"Claude Fable 5.2","mean_log10_rmse":0.29167904602135164,"mean_log10_pearson":0.5139238240332308,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"claude-fable-5-2","route":"claude_cli","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":null,"pilot_answers":28,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120,"output_limit":"CLI default; not recorded"}},{"id":"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash","name":"GLM-5.3 Flash","mean_log10_rmse":0.4109439441216288,"mean_log10_pearson":0.3669380860466979,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":196,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"meta/muse-spark-1.3","name":"Muse Spark 1.3","mean_log10_rmse":0.4120205752368599,"mean_log10_pearson":0.39301892962554585,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"meta/muse-spark-1.3","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":193,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro","name":"MiMo-V2.6-Pro","mean_log10_rmse":0.42508321158933277,"mean_log10_pearson":0.32269017506674813,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":196,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017","name":"DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (1017)","mean_log10_rmse":0.5321438006209591,"mean_log10_pearson":0.3820095142333565,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"meta/muse-ember","name":"Muse Ember","mean_log10_rmse":0.533896046501805,"mean_log10_pearson":0.3235907772037881,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"meta/muse-ember","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":196,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0","name":"Mistral Large 4","mean_log10_rmse":0.5724473211241239,"mean_log10_pearson":0.2643672256513588,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash","name":"MiniMax-M3.1-Flash","mean_log10_rmse":0.5946229512530422,"mean_log10_pearson":0.1555572421551476,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"claude-sonnet-5-5","name":"Claude Sonnet 5.5","mean_log10_rmse":0.6743110815876713,"mean_log10_pearson":0.35476669735477834,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","route":"claude_cli","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":null,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120,"output_limit":"CLI default; not recorded"}},{"id":"qwen/qwen3.8-flash","name":"Qwen 3.8 Flash","mean_log10_rmse":0.7306698968890439,"mean_log10_pearson":0.23395264652184314,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"qwen/qwen3.8-flash","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"openai/gpt-6-luna","name":"GPT-6 Luna","mean_log10_rmse":0.8057735188773459,"mean_log10_pearson":0.34936058160473693,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","route":"openrouter","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":32000,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120}},{"id":"claude-haiku-5-5","name":"Claude Haiku 5.5","mean_log10_rmse":0.9307636510586397,"mean_log10_pearson":0.27046623018056354,"run_configuration":{"source_model":"claude-haiku-5-5","route":"claude_cli","reasoning":"provider default","max_output_tokens":null,"pilot_answers":0,"valid_answers":197,"scored_charts":197,"months_per_chart":120,"output_limit":"CLI default; not recorded"}}],"references":[{"model":"Average article (baseline)","error":0.40221754739995874,"shape_r":0.18765100847313848,"reference":true},{"model":"Flat line (baseline)","error":0.4030342008424341,"shape_r":0.0,"reference":true}],"articles":[{"title":"Air Caraïbes","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Air Caraïbes\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3529,3273,3902,3329,3982,3675,3806,3540,3943,4546,3940,5014,5651,6435,10603,6394,5808,5514,5812,6358,5744,4786,4776,4619,5440,4874,5082,4977,5350,4780,5228,5167,4988,5273,4773,4804,5568,4966,5161,4879,4730,4743,4965,4934,6091,5136,5020,6252,5720,5315,5080,5254,4735,3871,3924,3655,3433,3984,3291,3771,5028,3582,3963,3596,3479,4022,4814,4046,3405,4190,4033,5799,5061,3847,4358,4924,4569,4570,4897,4658,4125,4458,4201,4654,5001,4444,5025,4717,4904,5082,5271,5220,4883,4949,4408,4681,5841,4851,5709,4526,4675,4910,4745,4786,4350,4178,4379,4740,5705,4739,5283,4656,4932,5016,5294,5356,5377,4058,4297,4873],"flat_reference_value":17073.934214906047,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2050.0,1900.0,2100.0,1950.0,2000.0,2150.0,2400.0,2350.0,1950.0,2050.0,1950.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,3300.0,2550.0,2300.0,2400.0,2650.0,2600.0,3050.0,2450.0,2300.0,2550.0,2500.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2450.0,2550.0,2900.0,2850.0,2450.0,2550.0,2400.0,2700.0,2700.0,2500.0,2750.0,2650.0,2700.0,2800.0,3150.0,3050.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,3400.0,2900.0,2700.0,2750.0,1700.0,1550.0,1700.0,2050.0,2100.0,1800.0,1750.0,1600.0,1950.0,1900.0,1750.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,2150.0,2550.0,2500.0,2150.0,2250.0,2150.0,2450.0,2350.0,2200.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,3350.0,3250.0,2800.0,2900.0,2750.0,3100.0,3050.0,2800.0,3100.0,3000.0,3150.0,3300.0,3750.0,3650.0,3150.0,3250.0,3100.0,3500.0,3450.0,3200.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3650.0,4100.0,4000.0,3450.0,3550.0,3400.0,3850.0,3800.0,3450.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3950.0,4450.0,4300.0,3750.0,3850.0,3700.0,4150.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[7420.0,6810.0,7130.0,6420.0,6090.0,6310.0,7240.0,7350.0,5920.0,6040.0,6210.0,7150.0,7630.0,9840.0,11250.0,7480.0,6790.0,6910.0,7820.0,7940.0,8610.0,6530.0,6410.0,7320.0,7840.0,7210.0,7530.0,6890.0,6420.0,6610.0,7540.0,7680.0,6230.0,6390.0,6580.0,7410.0,8120.0,7490.0,7780.0,7110.0,6630.0,6820.0,7740.0,7890.0,6480.0,6690.0,6920.0,10430.0,8790.0,7860.0,7380.0,3410.0,3620.0,4310.0,5420.0,5190.0,3890.0,3780.0,3510.0,4820.0,5210.0,4090.0,4230.0,4010.0,4520.0,5630.0,6810.0,6390.0,4720.0,5040.0,5410.0,6320.0,6640.0,6210.0,6730.0,6490.0,6120.0,6410.0,7380.0,7510.0,6020.0,6180.0,6340.0,7210.0,7690.0,7080.0,7310.0,6720.0,6310.0,6520.0,7490.0,7610.0,6090.0,6210.0,6380.0,7120.0,7510.0,6890.0,7140.0,6410.0,6020.0,6190.0,7030.0,7120.0,5890.0,6340.0,6010.0,6920.0,7210.0,6580.0,6810.0,6190.0,5820.0,6010.0,6830.0,6910.0,5620.0,5740.0,5890.0,6610.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5210.0,4780.0,4920.0,4480.0,4130.0,4350.0,5120.0,4890.0,3950.0,4210.0,4440.0,5340.0,5650.0,6840.0,7210.0,5130.0,4620.0,4850.0,5420.0,5210.0,6120.0,4530.0,4740.0,5560.0,5430.0,4920.0,5110.0,4680.0,4310.0,4590.0,5320.0,5010.0,4120.0,4350.0,4620.0,5610.0,5740.0,5050.0,5230.0,4790.0,4420.0,4710.0,5450.0,5140.0,4230.0,4510.0,4830.0,6250.0,5520.0,4810.0,4190.0,2620.0,2840.0,3210.0,3820.0,3610.0,2930.0,3120.0,3340.0,3950.0,3710.0,3420.0,3630.0,3310.0,3520.0,3910.0,4540.0,4320.0,3450.0,3720.0,4110.0,4830.0,4920.0,4430.0,4710.0,4520.0,4210.0,4630.0,5240.0,4930.0,4020.0,4340.0,4720.0,5430.0,5350.0,4820.0,5040.0,4620.0,4310.0,4740.0,5410.0,5120.0,4130.0,4450.0,4810.0,5630.0,5540.0,5020.0,5210.0,4730.0,4420.0,4830.0,5510.0,5240.0,4250.0,4530.0,4910.0,5720.0,5620.0,5110.0,5330.0,4820.0,4510.0,4920.0,5630.0,5310.0,4320.0,4620.0,5010.0,5830.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[4300.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,3950.0,4100.0,4600.0,4700.0,3900.0,3850.0,3800.0,4200.0,4400.0,4000.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4800.0,4900.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,4200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3900.0,3950.0,3900.0,4050.0,4500.0,4600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3650.0,4000.0,4100.0,3700.0,3700.0,3750.0,3700.0,3850.0,4300.0,4400.0,3600.0,3550.0,3500.0,3850.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,2000.0,2100.0,2400.0,2800.0,2900.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,3100.0,3200.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,2950.0,3100.0,3500.0,3500.0,2900.0,2850.0,2800.0,3100.0,3100.0,2800.0,2850.0,2900.0,2850.0,2950.0,3300.0,3350.0,2750.0,2700.0,2650.0,2950.0,2950.0,2700.0,2700.0,2750.0,2700.0,2800.0,3150.0,3200.0,2650.0,2600.0,2550.0,2850.0,2850.0,2600.0,2600.0,2650.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3050.0,2550.0,2500.0,2450.0,2750.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4800.0,4700.0,4200.0,4300.0,4300.0,4700.0,5000.0,5100.0,5600.0,5000.0,4900.0,4900.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,5000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,5100.0,5100.0,5100.0,5600.0,5500.0,4900.0,4900.0,4800.0,5200.0,5500.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,5600.0,5500.0,4900.0,4900.0,4900.0,5500.0,5400.0,4800.0,4200.0,2900.0,3000.0,3300.0,3800.0,3700.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3900.0,4400.0,4300.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4400.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,4900.0,4800.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4500.0,4700.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4400.0,4800.0,4700.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4500.0,4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,4400.0,4600.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4600.0,4500.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,2900.0,2600.0,3200.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,3000.0,7500.0,4600.0,3400.0,4200.0,3600.0,3300.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3400.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,9500.0,1500.0,1300.0,1700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,2600.0,2600.0,2400.0,2700.0,2300.0,2400.0,3200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3800.0,3600.0,4400.0,4800.0,4600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,4200.0,4000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,4200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,4000.0,3800.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3900.0,3700.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2834.0,2591.0,2427.0,2183.0,2089.0,2214.0,2618.0,2723.0,2195.0,2093.0,2317.0,2812.0,2964.0,2738.0,2541.0,2332.0,2217.0,2364.0,2761.0,2879.0,6483.0,3187.0,2513.0,2968.0,3112.0,2843.0,2647.0,2441.0,2318.0,2462.0,2864.0,2941.0,2397.0,2311.0,2519.0,3064.0,3217.0,2984.0,2813.0,2592.0,2448.0,2615.0,3018.0,3142.0,2546.0,2463.0,2668.0,3261.0,3314.0,3092.0,5237.0,4815.0,3214.0,2513.0,2619.0,2718.0,2214.0,2097.0,2218.0,2613.0,2714.0,2493.0,2417.0,2198.0,2113.0,2317.0,2719.0,2814.0,2296.0,2212.0,2418.0,2913.0,3017.0,2794.0,2713.0,2518.0,2396.0,2619.0,3114.0,3217.0,2613.0,2498.0,2714.0,3318.0,3146.0,2913.0,2748.0,2561.0,2443.0,2662.0,3168.0,3264.0,2647.0,2549.0,2763.0,3361.0,3213.0,2948.0,2817.0,2594.0,2512.0,2718.0,3219.0,3314.0,2713.0,2597.0,2816.0,3412.0,3114.0,2847.0,2719.0,2513.0,2418.0,2614.0,3119.0,3216.0,2618.0,2511.0,2719.0,3317.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4000.0,3500.0,3250.0,3050.0,2750.0,3050.0,3850.0,3700.0,2750.0,2700.0,3250.0,4050.0,4300.0,3750.0,3400.0,3250.0,2900.0,3250.0,4100.0,3950.0,7200.0,4300.0,3400.0,4300.0,4550.0,3950.0,3600.0,3450.0,3050.0,3450.0,4350.0,4150.0,3050.0,3100.0,3600.0,4550.0,4800.0,4200.0,3850.0,3650.0,3250.0,3650.0,4600.0,4400.0,3250.0,3300.0,3850.0,4800.0,4800.0,4250.0,6500.0,2700.0,2450.0,2650.0,3550.0,3450.0,2850.0,2750.0,2950.0,3850.0,4050.0,3500.0,3650.0,3350.0,3050.0,3450.0,4850.0,4750.0,3250.0,3150.0,4250.0,5100.0,4650.0,4350.0,3750.0,3550.0,3200.0,3550.0,4500.0,4300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3750.0,4650.0,4550.0,4000.0,3650.0,3450.0,3100.0,3450.0,4350.0,4200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3650.0,4550.0,4400.0,3900.0,3550.0,3350.0,3000.0,3350.0,4200.0,4050.0,3000.0,3000.0,3550.0,4400.0,4300.0,3800.0,3450.0,3300.0,2950.0,3250.0,4100.0,3950.0,2950.0,2950.0,3450.0,4300.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[820.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,700.0,760.0,880.0,900.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,800.0,900.0,1800.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1050.0,1100.0,1500.0,1000.0,900.0,1000.0,1050.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,1100.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1150.0,1150.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,2200.0,1500.0,900.0,650.0,700.0,750.0,600.0,550.0,550.0,600.0,650.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,800.0,850.0,700.0,650.0,600.0,700.0,800.0,750.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,1050.0,1050.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,1000.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,1100.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,1050.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1150.0,1150.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1200.0,1200.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1050.0],"meta/muse-ember":[618.0,594.0,712.0,688.0,571.0,629.0,842.0,867.0,492.0,518.0,583.0,731.0,635.0,608.0,735.0,702.0,589.0,641.0,861.0,894.0,2147.0,1385.0,627.0,764.0,666.0,638.0,772.0,741.0,612.0,663.0,889.0,918.0,539.0,562.0,618.0,788.0,702.0,671.0,804.0,781.0,645.0,698.0,933.0,967.0,574.0,589.0,652.0,827.0,718.0,694.0,512.0,149.0,176.0,257.0,429.0,473.0,286.0,308.0,327.0,382.0,318.0,304.0,366.0,351.0,389.0,458.0,618.0,674.0,397.0,415.0,462.0,541.0,512.0,529.0,648.0,627.0,538.0,618.0,834.0,871.0,519.0,537.0,609.0,754.0,574.0,552.0,677.0,651.0,558.0,1287.0,1089.0,914.0,557.0,574.0,639.0,798.0,618.0,597.0,724.0,699.0,584.0,658.0,1142.0,803.0,607.0,621.0,683.0,849.0,652.0,631.0,764.0,738.0,619.0,693.0,887.0,923.0,586.0,998.0,742.0,912.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[980.0,935.0,940.0,890.0,810.0,850.0,980.0,980.0,760.0,810.0,850.0,2200.0,1900.0,2550.0,1350.0,1000.0,900.0,950.0,1100.0,1500.0,4400.0,2100.0,1250.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,950.0,1400.0,1150.0,1150.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1300.0,2550.0,1800.0,1200.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1250.0,1300.0,2100.0,7300.0,6200.0,3600.0,2650.0,2500.0,2300.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1650.0,2250.0,2050.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1700.0,1400.0,1300.0,1350.0,1250.0,1150.0,1200.0,1700.0,1700.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1450.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1100.0,1950.0,1300.0,1300.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1400.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1050.0,1600.0,1250.0,1250.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1200.0,1200.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1250.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3842.0,3711.0,4126.0,3963.0,4287.0,4521.0,5034.0,5267.0,4488.0,4116.0,3806.0,4354.0,4031.0,3887.0,4347.0,4168.0,4491.0,4743.0,5119.0,5468.0,26840.0,10760.0,4522.0,4911.0,4523.0,4188.0,4607.0,4391.0,4744.0,4995.0,5401.0,5622.0,5063.0,4647.0,4265.0,4768.0,4342.0,4016.0,6180.0,5340.0,4860.0,4802.0,5146.0,5394.0,4817.0,4481.0,4377.0,4684.0,4512.0,4386.0,11850.0,8420.0,5860.0,4735.0,5004.0,4867.0,4615.0,4862.0,5126.0,6714.0,5367.0,4571.0,6240.0,4509.0,4803.0,5094.0,5546.0,5812.0,5174.0,4638.0,4492.0,6105.0,6082.0,4956.0,4785.0,4398.0,4706.0,4971.0,5356.0,5594.0,8860.0,5168.0,4579.0,4978.0,4772.0,4288.0,4476.0,4126.0,4425.0,4689.0,5036.0,5241.0,4688.0,4311.0,3947.0,4382.0,4204.0,3716.0,3987.0,3695.0,4004.0,4286.0,4641.0,4857.0,4337.0,3973.0,3648.0,4037.0,4106.0,3648.0,3935.0,3681.0,3992.0,4223.0,4544.0,4771.0,4288.0,3947.0,3652.0,4046.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[650.0,620.0,640.0,600.0,610.0,630.0,700.0,680.0,620.0,600.0,590.0,640.0,660.0,630.0,650.0,620.0,610.0,640.0,720.0,700.0,640.0,620.0,610.0,660.0,700.0,670.0,690.0,660.0,650.0,680.0,760.0,740.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,700.0,780.0,740.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,760.0,850.0,830.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,780.0,760.0,720.0,650.0,520.0,500.0,560.0,640.0,650.0,600.0,580.0,540.0,560.0,580.0,560.0,580.0,570.0,560.0,600.0,680.0,670.0,620.0,600.0,590.0,630.0,640.0,620.0,640.0,630.0,620.0,650.0,720.0,700.0,650.0,630.0,620.0,660.0,680.0,650.0,670.0,660.0,650.0,680.0,760.0,740.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,690.0,700.0,670.0,690.0,680.0,660.0,690.0,780.0,760.0,690.0,670.0,660.0,700.0,710.0,680.0,700.0,690.0,670.0,700.0,790.0,770.0,700.0,680.0,670.0,710.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1250.0,1200.0,1000.0,850.0,760.0,950.0,1100.0,1150.0,910.0,790.0,900.0,1270.0,1270.0,1230.0,1030.0,870.0,780.0,980.0,1140.0,1190.0,1170.0,960.0,920.0,1310.0,1240.0,1190.0,1010.0,840.0,750.0,960.0,1080.0,1140.0,890.0,770.0,880.0,1260.0,1230.0,1180.0,1000.0,830.0,760.0,950.0,1080.0,1130.0,880.0,790.0,890.0,1220.0,1200.0,1040.0,620.0,360.0,300.0,420.0,640.0,700.0,520.0,430.0,470.0,880.0,650.0,620.0,610.0,520.0,460.0,640.0,870.0,960.0,660.0,580.0,720.0,1160.0,1120.0,1110.0,990.0,820.0,680.0,950.0,1160.0,1210.0,900.0,770.0,910.0,1380.0,1300.0,1260.0,1030.0,860.0,750.0,980.0,1140.0,1190.0,910.0,800.0,930.0,1320.0,1330.0,1290.0,1060.0,890.0,770.0,1010.0,1180.0,1230.0,950.0,820.0,960.0,1360.0,1350.0,1300.0,1080.0,900.0,790.0,1020.0,1200.0,1260.0,960.0,830.0,970.0,1370.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[820.0,760.0,800.0,750.0,790.0,850.0,880.0,830.0,760.0,790.0,770.0,860.0,810.0,750.0,790.0,740.0,780.0,840.0,870.0,820.0,750.0,780.0,760.0,850.0,790.0,730.0,770.0,720.0,760.0,820.0,850.0,800.0,730.0,760.0,740.0,830.0,770.0,710.0,750.0,700.0,740.0,800.0,830.0,780.0,710.0,740.0,720.0,810.0,760.0,720.0,1080.0,900.0,790.0,760.0,820.0,760.0,690.0,710.0,680.0,750.0,700.0,650.0,690.0,660.0,700.0,740.0,770.0,720.0,660.0,680.0,660.0,740.0,710.0,660.0,700.0,670.0,710.0,760.0,790.0,740.0,680.0,710.0,690.0,770.0,720.0,670.0,710.0,680.0,720.0,770.0,800.0,750.0,690.0,720.0,700.0,780.0,710.0,660.0,700.0,670.0,710.0,760.0,790.0,740.0,680.0,710.0,690.0,770.0,690.0,640.0,680.0,650.0,690.0,740.0,770.0,720.0,660.0,690.0,670.0,750.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[683.0,637.0,650.0,618.0,631.0,650.0,728.0,715.0,650.0,637.0,631.0,683.0,735.0,686.0,700.0,665.0,679.0,700.0,784.0,770.0,700.0,686.0,679.0,735.0,756.0,706.0,720.0,684.0,698.0,720.0,806.0,792.0,720.0,706.0,698.0,756.0,767.0,715.0,730.0,694.0,708.0,730.0,818.0,803.0,730.0,715.0,708.0,767.0,546.0,510.0,430.0,380.0,380.0,400.0,450.0,440.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,420.0,452.0,421.0,430.0,409.0,417.0,430.0,482.0,473.0,430.0,421.0,417.0,452.0,504.0,470.0,480.0,456.0,466.0,480.0,538.0,528.0,480.0,470.0,466.0,504.0,494.0,461.0,470.0,447.0,456.0,470.0,526.0,517.0,470.0,461.0,456.0,494.0,452.0,421.0,430.0,409.0,417.0,430.0,482.0,473.0,430.0,421.0,417.0,452.0,420.0,392.0,400.0,380.0,388.0,400.0,448.0,440.0,400.0,392.0,388.0,420.0]}},{"title":"CIH (computer virus)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"CIH (computer virus)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3893,5080,3652,4784,8616,4640,4211,3739,4133,4059,3955,3321,3679,3130,3959,4412,5993,3402,3176,2539,2854,3988,4824,3557,3519,2880,3387,3984,3160,2702,2682,4397,2719,3488,3337,3250,3512,2552,3072,4060,3474,3458,2659,2636,2926,2983,3401,3121,3700,2923,3413,4813,5230,2484,2655,3053,2616,3068,2881,2860,3202,3011,3695,3549,2703,2748,2160,2517,2779,3511,3661,3959,3347,2744,3316,3037,2823,2330,2189,2895,2891,3282,3171,2749,3257,2835,3471,3208,2958,3278,3143,3499,2925,3947,3453,3325,3099,2794,2847,3440,5024,4410,3988,3256,2877,2707,2937,2535,2782,2517,2578,3080,2585,1969,2311,2203,2209,3741,2628,2401],"flat_reference_value":17106.706219133586,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[4800.0,4600.0,5000.0,7200.0,5100.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4900.0,7100.0,9800.0,7000.0,5600.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,4700.0,5100.0,7400.0,5300.0,5700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,4700.0,4900.0,4600.0,5200.0,12000.0,6500.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,5000.0,7500.0,5400.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4700.0,4400.0,4800.0,7100.0,5000.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4900.0,4600.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,5100.0,6900.0,4900.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,4200.0,4600.0,6700.0,4800.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,4200.0,4600.0,10500.0,5500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,4400.0,6500.0,4600.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4650.0,4420.0,4710.0,9600.0,4850.0,4210.0,4050.0,4120.0,4380.0,4590.0,4480.0,4290.0,4510.0,4180.0,4560.0,8350.0,9120.0,6840.0,4620.0,4230.0,4390.0,4520.0,4340.0,4110.0,4320.0,3980.0,4350.0,8900.0,4460.0,3920.0,3850.0,3910.0,4080.0,4290.0,4150.0,3990.0,4210.0,3890.0,4310.0,14200.0,7850.0,6420.0,4580.0,4190.0,4260.0,4410.0,4220.0,4080.0,4350.0,4120.0,4680.0,9350.0,4920.0,4490.0,4380.0,4420.0,4560.0,4710.0,4530.0,4390.0,4520.0,4180.0,4510.0,8640.0,4610.0,4120.0,4010.0,4090.0,4240.0,4380.0,4210.0,4060.0,4280.0,4950.0,5380.0,8720.0,4490.0,3980.0,3890.0,3940.0,4080.0,4190.0,4020.0,3870.0,4050.0,3740.0,4090.0,7920.0,4180.0,3710.0,3640.0,3690.0,3810.0,3950.0,3790.0,3620.0,3810.0,3580.0,3890.0,9650.0,4120.0,3590.0,6180.0,3840.0,3680.0,3790.0,3610.0,3480.0,3640.0,3350.0,3690.0,7350.0,3820.0,3410.0,3340.0,3390.0,3510.0,3620.0,3460.0,3320.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5600.0,5420.0,5830.0,11200.0,6150.0,5300.0,5210.0,5080.0,5540.0,5890.0,5710.0,5120.0,5450.0,4980.0,5620.0,8850.0,5780.0,5210.0,5040.0,4920.0,5380.0,5750.0,5510.0,4890.0,5320.0,4870.0,5410.0,9230.0,5640.0,5120.0,4960.0,4850.0,5290.0,5680.0,5430.0,4910.0,5390.0,4950.0,5580.0,9800.0,17850.0,12400.0,7820.0,6210.0,6050.0,6340.0,5970.0,5420.0,5630.0,5280.0,6510.0,10740.0,7320.0,6190.0,5840.0,5530.0,5910.0,6220.0,5870.0,5350.0,5510.0,5080.0,5740.0,9420.0,6180.0,5390.0,5120.0,4930.0,5460.0,5690.0,5350.0,4820.0,5140.0,5390.0,5850.0,8670.0,5520.0,4940.0,4760.0,4610.0,5080.0,5320.0,5110.0,4550.0,4890.0,4520.0,5130.0,7920.0,5210.0,4680.0,4510.0,4390.0,4850.0,5070.0,4820.0,4350.0,4650.0,4380.0,4920.0,7650.0,5030.0,4510.0,4340.0,4210.0,4670.0,4910.0,4650.0,4180.0,4480.0,4210.0,4730.0,7320.0,4850.0,4390.0,4190.0,4080.0,4520.0,4760.0,4490.0,4050.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[19000.0,18500.0,19200.0,21500.0,18800.0,17000.0,16500.0,16800.0,17800.0,18500.0,18200.0,16500.0,17800.0,17200.0,17900.0,20000.0,18500.0,16200.0,15600.0,15800.0,16500.0,17200.0,16900.0,15300.0,16500.0,15900.0,16400.0,18600.0,16000.0,14800.0,14500.0,14700.0,15200.0,15800.0,15500.0,14200.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,17200.0,18500.0,17800.0,15000.0,14200.0,14300.0,14600.0,14400.0,13200.0,14000.0,13600.0,15200.0,17500.0,15500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13200.0,13000.0,13400.0,13100.0,12200.0,13000.0,12500.0,12900.0,14800.0,12600.0,11800.0,11500.0,11600.0,11900.0,12300.0,12100.0,11000.0,11800.0,11300.0,11700.0,13500.0,11400.0,10600.0,10400.0,10500.0,10800.0,11200.0,11000.0,10000.0,10800.0,10300.0,10700.0,12200.0,10400.0,9700.0,9500.0,9600.0,9800.0,10100.0,9900.0,9100.0,9800.0,9400.0,9700.0,11100.0,9500.0,8900.0,8700.0,8800.0,9000.0,9300.0,9100.0,8400.0,9000.0,8600.0,8900.0,10200.0,8700.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,8300.0,8600.0,8400.0,7800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9200.0,8900.0,9300.0,12000.0,9400.0,8500.0,8300.0,8400.0,8600.0,9000.0,9100.0,8600.0,8900.0,8400.0,8800.0,10800.0,11500.0,9000.0,8200.0,7900.0,8000.0,8300.0,8200.0,7700.0,8000.0,7400.0,7800.0,10500.0,7900.0,7000.0,6900.0,6900.0,7000.0,7300.0,7200.0,6800.0,7100.0,6600.0,6900.0,8800.0,6900.0,6200.0,6200.0,6200.0,6300.0,6600.0,6500.0,6200.0,6500.0,6100.0,6500.0,8500.0,7200.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,6000.0,6100.0,6000.0,5900.0,6100.0,5600.0,5900.0,7500.0,5900.0,5300.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,5300.0,4900.0,5200.0,6600.0,5200.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4900.0,4800.0,4600.0,4900.0,4500.0,4800.0,6200.0,4900.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,5900.0,4700.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,4200.0,4500.0,5800.0,4700.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6300.0,6000.0,6400.0,14000.0,7500.0,6000.0,5700.0,5800.0,6300.0,6500.0,6100.0,5200.0,5800.0,5500.0,5900.0,8500.0,9800.0,7200.0,5600.0,5500.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,4800.0,5300.0,5100.0,5400.0,8000.0,6400.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,5400.0,5300.0,5000.0,4400.0,4900.0,4700.0,5000.0,11500.0,7500.0,5600.0,4700.0,4800.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4100.0,4600.0,4400.0,4900.0,7000.0,5800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4400.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0,3800.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,6500.0,5300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3500.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,6000.0,4900.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,5800.0,4600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,5500.0,4400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3000.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,5200.0,4200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,2900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":null,"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3400.0,3200.0,3500.0,11800.0,4100.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3900.0,3400.0,3000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3900.0,13500.0,8200.0,6400.0,4300.0,3800.0,4100.0,4600.0,4000.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,4100.0,18500.0,5000.0,4200.0,3800.0,3700.0,4000.0,4700.0,4100.0,3700.0,4100.0,3900.0,4300.0,15200.0,5100.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,4200.0,5000.0,4300.0,3900.0,4700.0,4600.0,5400.0,17500.0,5900.0,5100.0,4700.0,4600.0,5100.0,6000.0,5200.0,4700.0,5000.0,4800.0,5300.0,17000.0,5900.0,5200.0,4800.0,4700.0,5200.0,6100.0,5300.0,4800.0,4800.0,4500.0,5000.0,15800.0,5600.0,4900.0,4500.0,4400.0,4900.0,5800.0,5000.0,4600.0,5100.0,4900.0,5400.0,19200.0,6100.0,5300.0,4900.0,4800.0,5300.0,6300.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5300.0,5800.0,20500.0,6500.0,5700.0,5300.0,5200.0,5700.0,6800.0,5900.0,5400.0,5900.0,5700.0,6300.0,22000.0,7000.0,6100.0,5700.0,5600.0,6100.0,7300.0,6300.0,5800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[850.0,800.0,900.0,2600.0,1000.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,750.0,800.0,750.0,850.0,2300.0,950.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,700.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,4500.0,1100.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,750.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,3500.0,1000.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,750.0,750.0,700.0,800.0,2500.0,850.0,750.0,700.0,700.0,800.0,800.0,750.0,650.0,700.0,650.0,750.0,2200.0,800.0,700.0,650.0,650.0,750.0,750.0,700.0,600.0,700.0,650.0,750.0,2400.0,800.0,700.0,650.0,650.0,750.0,750.0,700.0,600.0,700.0,650.0,750.0,2500.0,800.0,700.0,650.0,650.0,750.0,750.0,700.0,600.0,750.0,700.0,800.0,3000.0,850.0,750.0,700.0,700.0,800.0,800.0,750.0,650.0,700.0,650.0,750.0,2600.0,800.0,700.0,650.0,650.0,750.0,750.0,700.0,600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1080.0,1000.0,1120.0,1650.0,1030.0,970.0,880.0,930.0,1150.0,1180.0,1090.0,960.0,1010.0,960.0,1060.0,1580.0,1620.0,1340.0,860.0,870.0,1100.0,1115.0,1040.0,920.0,990.0,930.0,1030.0,1520.0,950.0,900.0,820.0,860.0,1060.0,1080.0,1380.0,890.0,960.0,910.0,1010.0,2300.0,1650.0,920.0,800.0,840.0,1040.0,1050.0,990.0,870.0,1010.0,940.0,1080.0,1600.0,990.0,910.0,830.0,850.0,1070.0,1090.0,1030.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,990.0,1480.0,930.0,870.0,790.0,830.0,1030.0,1040.0,980.0,860.0,890.0,860.0,1150.0,1420.0,870.0,810.0,740.0,770.0,960.0,970.0,920.0,810.0,840.0,800.0,880.0,1350.0,820.0,760.0,710.0,730.0,900.0,920.0,1100.0,760.0,790.0,750.0,830.0,1550.0,770.0,720.0,660.0,690.0,850.0,860.0,810.0,720.0,730.0,690.0,760.0,1180.0,710.0,650.0,610.0,630.0,780.0,800.0,750.0,660.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[880.0,920.0,950.0,2600.0,980.0,1050.0,990.0,960.0,940.0,930.0,950.0,1000.0,1010.0,990.0,1030.0,2900.0,2600.0,3400.0,1900.0,1150.0,1080.0,1050.0,1060.0,1120.0,1150.0,1120.0,1180.0,3800.0,1300.0,1350.0,1200.0,1150.0,1120.0,1100.0,1130.0,1180.0,1220.0,1180.0,1250.0,4200.0,6500.0,4800.0,2600.0,1700.0,1450.0,1380.0,1320.0,1300.0,1350.0,1380.0,1500.0,4300.0,1900.0,1750.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1480.0,1450.0,1500.0,1420.0,1380.0,1400.0,3200.0,1500.0,1420.0,1350.0,1300.0,1280.0,1250.0,1220.0,1200.0,1150.0,2200.0,4200.0,5500.0,2400.0,1600.0,1300.0,1150.0,1080.0,1020.0,980.0,950.0,920.0,880.0,900.0,2100.0,920.0,950.0,880.0,850.0,840.0,830.0,820.0,840.0,800.0,780.0,790.0,1900.0,790.0,820.0,1050.0,790.0,770.0,760.0,750.0,760.0,700.0,680.0,690.0,1600.0,670.0,700.0,640.0,620.0,610.0,600.0,590.0,600.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1150.0,1020.0,1180.0,2050.0,1300.0,1150.0,980.0,900.0,1120.0,1260.0,1160.0,1020.0,1150.0,1050.0,1280.0,2350.0,2650.0,1400.0,1100.0,1000.0,1220.0,1350.0,1240.0,1080.0,1160.0,1080.0,2900.0,5200.0,2050.0,1550.0,1220.0,1080.0,1280.0,1420.0,1300.0,1120.0,1180.0,1090.0,1400.0,3000.0,1650.0,1420.0,1160.0,1040.0,1250.0,1390.0,1280.0,1130.0,1220.0,1120.0,1900.0,3400.0,2000.0,1600.0,1300.0,1150.0,1350.0,1500.0,1350.0,1180.0,1250.0,1140.0,1480.0,3100.0,1750.0,1530.0,1240.0,1100.0,1300.0,1450.0,1320.0,1180.0,1280.0,1160.0,1500.0,3350.0,1820.0,1580.0,1260.0,1120.0,1330.0,1480.0,1350.0,1210.0,1290.0,1170.0,2050.0,4700.0,2100.0,1650.0,1300.0,1150.0,1350.0,1500.0,1370.0,1230.0,1300.0,1190.0,1550.0,3600.0,1880.0,1620.0,1280.0,1140.0,1340.0,1490.0,1370.0,1230.0,1320.0,1200.0,1570.0,3750.0,1920.0,1650.0,1300.0,1150.0,1350.0,1500.0,1380.0,1240.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1900.0,1500.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1350.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1750.0,1500.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1700.0,1450.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1250.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1700.0,1500.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1250.0,1350.0,1350.0,1450.0,1600.0,1450.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1350.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1500.0,1350.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1150.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1450.0,1300.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1400.0,1250.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1050.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1350.0,1200.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1300.0,1150.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,950.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1950.0,1720.0,1880.0,24200.0,2680.0,2110.0,1840.0,1630.0,1790.0,1920.0,1800.0,2010.0,2130.0,1970.0,2160.0,23100.0,29600.0,13200.0,2510.0,1980.0,1860.0,2200.0,2010.0,2320.0,2080.0,1940.0,2210.0,19200.0,2650.0,2030.0,1840.0,1670.0,1780.0,1990.0,1850.0,2150.0,2240.0,2100.0,2430.0,41800.0,18600.0,3900.0,2160.0,1980.0,2140.0,2390.0,2170.0,2520.0,2260.0,2150.0,2310.0,21900.0,2760.0,2050.0,1870.0,1750.0,1910.0,2130.0,2070.0,2430.0,2210.0,2080.0,2240.0,16600.0,2470.0,2010.0,1820.0,1690.0,1810.0,2040.0,1950.0,2260.0,2100.0,1980.0,2130.0,13800.0,2250.0,1920.0,1730.0,1620.0,1740.0,1960.0,1870.0,2170.0,2280.0,2150.0,2430.0,30200.0,5400.0,2870.0,1960.0,1790.0,1910.0,2160.0,2030.0,2360.0,2110.0,1990.0,2150.0,15800.0,2460.0,1980.0,1750.0,1630.0,1750.0,1970.0,1880.0,2180.0,2020.0,1910.0,2070.0,13100.0,2180.0,1820.0,1610.0,1510.0,1630.0,1850.0,1760.0,1970.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[170.0,160.0,180.0,330.0,190.0,175.0,180.0,165.0,170.0,190.0,185.0,150.0,160.0,155.0,170.0,315.0,180.0,165.0,170.0,155.0,165.0,180.0,170.0,145.0,155.0,150.0,175.0,390.0,195.0,170.0,165.0,160.0,170.0,185.0,175.0,145.0,160.0,155.0,180.0,450.0,210.0,180.0,175.0,165.0,175.0,190.0,180.0,150.0,170.0,165.0,185.0,370.0,200.0,185.0,180.0,170.0,180.0,195.0,185.0,155.0,160.0,155.0,175.0,340.0,185.0,170.0,165.0,155.0,165.0,180.0,170.0,145.0,150.0,145.0,165.0,310.0,175.0,160.0,155.0,150.0,160.0,175.0,165.0,140.0,145.0,140.0,160.0,295.0,170.0,155.0,150.0,145.0,155.0,170.0,160.0,135.0,150.0,145.0,170.0,360.0,185.0,160.0,155.0,150.0,160.0,175.0,165.0,140.0,135.0,130.0,150.0,270.0,155.0,145.0,140.0,135.0,145.0,155.0,150.0,125.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1100.0,1155.0,1210.0,2300.0,1100.0,1045.0,990.0,990.0,1155.0,1155.0,1100.0,990.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1900.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,900.0,900.0,945.0,990.0,1600.0,900.0,855.0,810.0,810.0,945.0,945.0,900.0,810.0,820.0,861.0,902.0,1420.0,820.0,779.0,738.0,738.0,861.0,861.0,820.0,738.0,800.0,840.0,880.0,1300.0,800.0,760.0,720.0,720.0,840.0,840.0,800.0,720.0,720.0,756.0,792.0,1120.0,720.0,684.0,648.0,648.0,756.0,756.0,720.0,648.0,680.0,714.0,748.0,1030.0,680.0,646.0,612.0,612.0,714.0,714.0,680.0,612.0,620.0,651.0,682.0,920.0,620.0,589.0,558.0,558.0,651.0,651.0,620.0,558.0,560.0,588.0,616.0,810.0,560.0,532.0,504.0,504.0,588.0,588.0,560.0,504.0,470.0,494.0,517.0,670.0,470.0,447.0,423.0,423.0,494.0,494.0,470.0,423.0]}},{"title":"Ixelles","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Ixelles\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3795,3578,5830,4017,6322,6587,3838,3451,3549,4220,4078,3905,4205,3985,4152,4056,4482,5175,3739,3888,3574,3605,4353,3452,3870,3250,3921,3323,4244,3433,3843,3682,3956,3936,3195,3437,3600,3520,4590,3832,3937,3443,6870,4289,3952,4371,4477,8279,6242,6163,5012,5576,6028,3964,4643,4054,4172,4852,4808,7339,5113,4355,5838,5094,4474,3902,4083,4152,4110,3895,3748,4078,4024,4000,4486,4702,5438,5114,4114,4455,4435,4490,4078,5517,4776,4826,5423,4779,4976,4632,4954,4581,4694,4938,4524,7718,5481,5180,5340,4891,5527,6304,5648,4851,5185,4859,4689,4947,6567,5847,5990,5508,5534,4708,6183,6730,5427,4801,4765,5185],"flat_reference_value":17076.16408309044,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2350.0,2180.0,3400.0,2650.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2250.0,2400.0,2250.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,2650.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2350.0,2500.0,2300.0,2550.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,3050.0,2800.0,2950.0,2850.0,2600.0,2450.0,2600.0,2400.0,2650.0,2700.0,2800.0,2750.0,2900.0,2850.0,3050.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2700.0,2500.0,2550.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2650.0,2850.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2500.0,2800.0,2750.0,2850.0,2900.0,3000.0,2950.0,3200.0,3050.0,2800.0,2600.0,2850.0,2650.0,2950.0,2900.0,3100.0,3050.0,3200.0,3150.0,3350.0,3200.0,2950.0,2750.0,2950.0,2750.0,3050.0,3000.0,3200.0,3150.0,3300.0,3250.0,3450.0,3350.0,3050.0,2850.0,3050.0,2850.0,3150.0,3100.0,3300.0,3250.0,3450.0,3350.0,3550.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,2850.0,3200.0,3150.0,3350.0,3300.0,3450.0,3400.0,3600.0,3450.0,3150.0,2950.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4950.0,4420.0,7850.0,5310.0,4890.0,4720.0,4860.0,5140.0,5280.0,4810.0,4490.0,4120.0,4580.0,4190.0,4670.0,4610.0,4820.0,4690.0,4880.0,5190.0,5340.0,4790.0,4460.0,4050.0,4620.0,4150.0,4640.0,4590.0,4780.0,4630.0,4850.0,5160.0,5290.0,5420.0,4510.0,4080.0,4690.0,4230.0,4740.0,4680.0,5020.0,4710.0,4930.0,5240.0,5380.0,4860.0,4520.0,4140.0,4720.0,4380.0,3690.0,3380.0,3540.0,3710.0,3950.0,4180.0,4260.0,4120.0,3780.0,3610.0,3940.0,3620.0,3980.0,4190.0,4080.0,4150.0,4380.0,4690.0,4850.0,4490.0,4210.0,3890.0,4360.0,4010.0,4520.0,4580.0,4760.0,4680.0,4890.0,5120.0,5210.0,4730.0,4390.0,4020.0,4680.0,4110.0,4560.0,4510.0,4690.0,4580.0,4790.0,5040.0,5110.0,4920.0,4320.0,3940.0,4380.0,4020.0,4350.0,4290.0,4460.0,4340.0,4520.0,4760.0,4840.0,4910.0,4120.0,3760.0,4150.0,3740.0,4120.0,4080.0,4230.0,4140.0,4310.0,4540.0,4620.0,4210.0,3920.0,3590.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[4210.0,3980.0,6150.0,4830.0,4410.0,4120.0,3720.0,3610.0,4350.0,4680.0,4510.0,3890.0,4250.0,4110.0,4720.0,4390.0,4560.0,4200.0,3650.0,3810.0,4480.0,4890.0,4670.0,3980.0,4320.0,4180.0,4610.0,4490.0,4620.0,4250.0,3840.0,3920.0,4550.0,4910.0,4730.0,4050.0,4420.0,4290.0,4980.0,4630.0,4810.0,4490.0,5620.0,4120.0,4760.0,5130.0,5080.0,4380.0,4620.0,4410.0,3870.0,3520.0,3790.0,3950.0,3610.0,3740.0,4310.0,4480.0,4290.0,3820.0,4150.0,3990.0,4460.0,4280.0,4390.0,4180.0,3810.0,3900.0,4520.0,4740.0,4680.0,4010.0,4360.0,4120.0,4710.0,4530.0,4640.0,4380.0,3910.0,4050.0,4780.0,4920.0,4810.0,4150.0,4510.0,4260.0,4880.0,4620.0,4750.0,4430.0,4020.0,4110.0,4890.0,5040.0,4890.0,4210.0,4590.0,4380.0,4820.0,4670.0,4790.0,4510.0,4150.0,4230.0,4960.0,5120.0,4970.0,4320.0,4630.0,4410.0,4850.0,4710.0,4830.0,4540.0,4180.0,4270.0,4990.0,5160.0,5010.0,4360.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[7200.0,7000.0,8900.0,7600.0,7000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6200.0,6700.0,6900.0,6800.0,6000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6900.0,6500.0,6400.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,5600.0,6300.0,6000.0,6300.0,6000.0,5900.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,5700.0,5900.0,5800.0,5100.0,5800.0,5500.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5300.0,5500.0,5400.0,4800.0,5400.0,5200.0,4800.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4600.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,4500.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4300.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,4600.0,4400.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,3900.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,3600.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3300.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[5800.0,5600.0,7200.0,6000.0,5900.0,5700.0,5600.0,5700.0,5800.0,5900.0,5700.0,5300.0,5800.0,5400.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,5500.0,5500.0,5600.0,5700.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,5700.0,5300.0,5700.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5500.0,5900.0,5500.0,5100.0,5600.0,5200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5300.0,5400.0,5400.0,5400.0,5500.0,5300.0,5000.0,5400.0,5000.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,5100.0,4700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4600.0,4900.0,4600.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4700.0,4400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4100.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5400.0,5200.0,16500.0,6800.0,6000.0,5800.0,7200.0,8000.0,7800.0,5800.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,7000.0,7600.0,7400.0,5800.0,5400.0,5100.0,5100.0,5000.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,7600.0,8100.0,7500.0,5900.0,5500.0,5200.0,5200.0,5100.0,5600.0,5800.0,7400.0,6200.0,7400.0,8200.0,7900.0,6000.0,5600.0,5300.0,5300.0,5100.0,6800.0,4200.0,4500.0,4700.0,5600.0,6200.0,6500.0,5200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,5600.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,6400.0,7200.0,7000.0,5500.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,5500.0,5600.0,5600.0,5600.0,7300.0,8300.0,8000.0,6200.0,5800.0,5500.0,5500.0,5400.0,5900.0,6000.0,6000.0,6100.0,7800.0,8600.0,8300.0,6400.0,6000.0,5700.0,5800.0,5600.0,6200.0,6300.0,6400.0,7600.0,8400.0,9200.0,8900.0,6800.0,6300.0,6000.0,6100.0,6000.0,6500.0,6600.0,6700.0,6800.0,8600.0,9400.0,9100.0,7000.0,6600.0,6300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[893.0,871.0,2384.0,1547.0,1002.0,1041.0,1095.0,1048.0,983.0,962.0,898.0,781.0,872.0,844.0,964.0,918.0,981.0,1017.0,1062.0,1029.0,965.0,941.0,879.0,769.0,851.0,823.0,931.0,893.0,953.0,989.0,1034.0,1001.0,938.0,917.0,857.0,748.0,828.0,801.0,909.0,869.0,927.0,962.0,1008.0,973.0,935.0,891.0,832.0,727.0,809.0,782.0,1192.0,1215.0,1081.0,941.0,983.0,951.0,912.0,872.0,813.0,710.0,785.0,760.0,863.0,824.0,879.0,913.0,955.0,924.0,886.0,846.0,790.0,689.0,766.0,742.0,842.0,804.0,859.0,891.0,933.0,901.0,867.0,826.0,771.0,672.0,747.0,724.0,822.0,784.0,838.0,869.0,910.0,879.0,846.0,1528.0,1004.0,656.0,728.0,706.0,801.0,764.0,817.0,848.0,887.0,857.0,824.0,786.0,733.0,640.0,709.0,688.0,781.0,744.0,796.0,826.0,864.0,834.0,803.0,766.0,714.0,623.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[9400.0,9800.0,36200.0,15100.0,12300.0,13100.0,15200.0,14600.0,11900.0,11100.0,10700.0,11400.0,10800.0,11200.0,13100.0,12200.0,12500.0,13900.0,16200.0,15700.0,12800.0,11900.0,11600.0,12400.0,11700.0,12100.0,12600.0,12900.0,13500.0,14900.0,16900.0,17300.0,13300.0,12600.0,12900.0,13400.0,12500.0,12800.0,13300.0,13800.0,14400.0,15900.0,18100.0,17700.0,14500.0,13600.0,13100.0,13800.0,13000.0,12900.0,11600.0,7500.0,6800.0,7300.0,8500.0,8100.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,7100.0,6800.0,6900.0,7500.0,7800.0,8300.0,9200.0,10500.0,10100.0,8500.0,8000.0,7700.0,8300.0,8200.0,8500.0,9100.0,9700.0,10200.0,11900.0,13600.0,14100.0,11000.0,10200.0,9800.0,10500.0,10100.0,10400.0,11100.0,11600.0,12200.0,13700.0,15500.0,15000.0,12600.0,13400.0,11500.0,12200.0,11800.0,12100.0,12800.0,13300.0,13900.0,15400.0,17000.0,16500.0,13600.0,12800.0,12300.0,13000.0,12400.0,12700.0,13300.0,13800.0,14300.0,15700.0,17300.0,16700.0,13800.0,12900.0,12100.0,12500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[6510.0,6324.0,8370.0,7130.0,6510.0,6200.0,5580.0,5270.0,6510.0,6820.0,6510.0,5890.0,6195.0,5900.0,6077.0,6018.0,6077.0,5900.0,5310.0,5015.0,6195.0,6372.0,6136.0,5605.0,6300.0,6000.0,6240.0,6180.0,6240.0,6000.0,5400.0,5160.0,6360.0,6540.0,6300.0,5760.0,6510.0,6200.0,6448.0,6386.0,6572.0,6324.0,5580.0,5332.0,6572.0,6758.0,6510.0,5952.0,5985.0,5700.0,6270.0,5985.0,5700.0,5415.0,5016.0,4845.0,5814.0,6042.0,5928.0,5415.0,6240.0,6000.0,6180.0,6120.0,6180.0,6000.0,5400.0,5160.0,6300.0,6480.0,6240.0,5760.0,6615.0,6300.0,6552.0,6489.0,6552.0,6300.0,5670.0,5418.0,6678.0,6867.0,6615.0,6048.0,6825.0,6500.0,6760.0,6695.0,6760.0,6500.0,5850.0,5590.0,6890.0,7085.0,6825.0,6240.0,7140.0,6800.0,7072.0,7004.0,7140.0,7344.0,6120.0,5848.0,7208.0,7412.0,7140.0,6528.0,7350.0,7000.0,7280.0,7210.0,7280.0,7000.0,6300.0,6020.0,7420.0,7630.0,7350.0,6720.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2408.0,2352.0,7500.0,4200.0,2968.0,4200.0,3360.0,3192.0,3248.0,2912.0,2800.0,2352.0,2494.0,2436.0,2784.0,2900.0,3074.0,3306.0,3480.0,3306.0,3364.0,3016.0,2726.0,2436.0,2580.0,2520.0,2880.0,3000.0,3180.0,3420.0,3600.0,3420.0,3480.0,3120.0,2820.0,2520.0,2709.0,2646.0,3024.0,3150.0,3900.0,3591.0,3780.0,3591.0,3654.0,3276.0,2961.0,2646.0,2623.0,2562.0,4800.0,4000.0,3100.0,3400.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,2900.0,2600.0,2300.0,2752.0,2688.0,3072.0,3200.0,3392.0,3648.0,3400.0,3300.0,3712.0,3328.0,3008.0,2688.0,2838.0,4800.0,5200.0,3300.0,3498.0,3762.0,3960.0,3762.0,3828.0,4000.0,3102.0,2772.0,2924.0,2856.0,3264.0,3400.0,3604.0,3876.0,4080.0,3876.0,3944.0,3536.0,3196.0,2856.0,3010.0,2940.0,3360.0,3500.0,3710.0,4700.0,4200.0,3990.0,4060.0,3640.0,3290.0,2940.0,2950.0,2780.0,3200.0,4100.0,3550.0,3800.0,4000.0,3800.0,3860.0,3460.0,3130.0,2800.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3780.0,3630.0,13500.0,6500.0,5100.0,4600.0,5800.0,4500.0,4180.0,3940.0,3780.0,4100.0,4070.0,3910.0,7500.0,4200.0,4330.0,4580.0,4750.0,4660.0,4490.0,4240.0,4070.0,4410.0,4460.0,4280.0,4550.0,4600.0,4740.0,5010.0,7300.0,5110.0,4920.0,4650.0,4460.0,4830.0,4750.0,4560.0,4850.0,4900.0,5050.0,5340.0,5540.0,5440.0,5240.0,4950.0,4750.0,5150.0,5040.0,4840.0,9800.0,8200.0,6900.0,5900.0,5880.0,5770.0,5560.0,5600.0,6200.0,5700.0,5430.0,5210.0,5800.0,5600.0,5770.0,6100.0,7800.0,6220.0,5990.0,5660.0,5430.0,5880.0,5240.0,5020.0,5350.0,5400.0,5560.0,5890.0,6100.0,5990.0,5780.0,5450.0,5900.0,6000.0,4950.0,4740.0,5050.0,5100.0,5250.0,5560.0,5760.0,5660.0,5460.0,5150.0,4950.0,5355.0,4750.0,4560.0,4850.0,4900.0,5050.0,5340.0,6800.0,5440.0,5240.0,4950.0,4750.0,5150.0,4560.0,4370.0,4650.0,4700.0,4840.0,5120.0,5310.0,5210.0,5030.0,4750.0,4560.0,4935.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4300.0,4450.0,5850.0,5200.0,5050.0,5350.0,5700.0,5550.0,5000.0,4900.0,4600.0,4250.0,4050.0,4200.0,4400.0,4550.0,4750.0,5000.0,5350.0,5200.0,4700.0,4650.0,4300.0,3950.0,4050.0,4200.0,4450.0,4600.0,4750.0,5100.0,5450.0,5300.0,4850.0,4750.0,4400.0,4100.0,3950.0,4050.0,4250.0,4350.0,4550.0,4800.0,5150.0,5000.0,4650.0,4550.0,4250.0,3900.0,4100.0,4050.0,3700.0,3050.0,2900.0,3050.0,3400.0,3450.0,3400.0,3650.0,3350.0,3150.0,3250.0,3350.0,3550.0,3650.0,3800.0,4100.0,4400.0,4250.0,3900.0,3850.0,3600.0,3300.0,3550.0,3650.0,3900.0,4050.0,4200.0,4450.0,4800.0,4650.0,4250.0,4200.0,3950.0,3650.0,3750.0,3850.0,4050.0,4200.0,4350.0,4650.0,4950.0,4850.0,4450.0,4400.0,4150.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3900.0,4050.0,4200.0,4450.0,4750.0,4650.0,4250.0,4200.0,3950.0,3650.0,3650.0,3750.0,3950.0,4100.0,4250.0,4500.0,4800.0,4700.0,4350.0,4250.0,4000.0,3700.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3400.0,6200.0,4600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3300.0,3600.0,3600.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,3800.0,3800.0,3400.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,3800.0,3800.0,3400.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3300.0,3600.0,3600.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3300.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1160.0,1080.0,1480.0,1240.0,1190.0,1320.0,1490.0,1430.0,1310.0,1220.0,1140.0,1050.0,1210.0,1140.0,1260.0,1180.0,1240.0,1380.0,1520.0,1470.0,1330.0,1250.0,1170.0,1090.0,1240.0,1170.0,1290.0,1220.0,1280.0,1410.0,1560.0,1500.0,1370.0,1810.0,1330.0,1150.0,1280.0,1210.0,1400.0,1320.0,2080.0,1520.0,1710.0,1650.0,1500.0,1390.0,1270.0,1180.0,1310.0,1230.0,2240.0,2410.0,1980.0,2070.0,1870.0,1790.0,1620.0,1440.0,1340.0,1240.0,1360.0,1240.0,1290.0,1210.0,1320.0,1450.0,1600.0,1550.0,1420.0,1310.0,1230.0,1140.0,1290.0,1220.0,1660.0,1540.0,1420.0,1570.0,1720.0,1680.0,1490.0,1360.0,1280.0,1200.0,1260.0,1180.0,1310.0,1240.0,1410.0,1560.0,1690.0,1640.0,1510.0,1380.0,1300.0,1210.0,1320.0,1240.0,1360.0,1300.0,1870.0,1690.0,1800.0,1740.0,1610.0,2140.0,1420.0,1280.0,1290.0,1210.0,1340.0,1270.0,1410.0,1570.0,1680.0,1630.0,1500.0,1380.0,1290.0,1200.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[650.0,610.0,1120.0,760.0,700.0,670.0,620.0,600.0,630.0,680.0,620.0,570.0,620.0,590.0,650.0,620.0,660.0,630.0,590.0,570.0,610.0,640.0,600.0,540.0,590.0,560.0,630.0,600.0,650.0,620.0,580.0,560.0,600.0,620.0,590.0,530.0,570.0,550.0,610.0,590.0,630.0,600.0,560.0,540.0,580.0,610.0,570.0,510.0,560.0,530.0,700.0,650.0,620.0,590.0,570.0,550.0,580.0,610.0,590.0,540.0,550.0,520.0,570.0,550.0,580.0,560.0,530.0,510.0,540.0,570.0,540.0,490.0,520.0,500.0,550.0,530.0,570.0,550.0,520.0,500.0,530.0,560.0,530.0,480.0,510.0,490.0,540.0,520.0,550.0,530.0,510.0,490.0,530.0,720.0,570.0,500.0,500.0,480.0,530.0,510.0,560.0,540.0,510.0,490.0,540.0,600.0,530.0,480.0,490.0,470.0,520.0,500.0,540.0,520.0,490.0,470.0,510.0,540.0,500.0,450.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2835.0,2835.0,3300.0,2700.0,2646.0,2430.0,2160.0,1890.0,2835.0,2970.0,2835.0,2430.0,2625.0,2625.0,2625.0,2500.0,2450.0,2250.0,2000.0,1750.0,2625.0,2750.0,2625.0,2250.0,2520.0,2520.0,2520.0,2400.0,2352.0,2160.0,1920.0,1680.0,2520.0,2640.0,2520.0,2160.0,2415.0,2415.0,2415.0,2300.0,2254.0,2070.0,1840.0,1610.0,2415.0,2530.0,2415.0,2070.0,2468.0,2468.0,2700.0,2600.0,2303.0,2115.0,1880.0,1645.0,2468.0,2585.0,2468.0,2115.0,2205.0,2205.0,2205.0,2100.0,2058.0,1890.0,1680.0,1470.0,2205.0,2310.0,2205.0,1890.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,1960.0,1800.0,1600.0,1400.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,1800.0,1995.0,1995.0,1995.0,1900.0,1862.0,1710.0,1520.0,1330.0,1995.0,2090.0,1995.0,1710.0,1890.0,1890.0,1890.0,1800.0,1764.0,1620.0,1440.0,1260.0,1890.0,1980.0,1890.0,1620.0,1785.0,1785.0,1785.0,1700.0,1666.0,1530.0,1360.0,1190.0,1785.0,1870.0,1785.0,1530.0]}},{"title":"Agent provocateur","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Agent provocateur\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[10952,9176,10580,8528,11259,10757,15162,8547,8486,14573,22275,9904,19511,24287,12669,9614,10069,8664,9651,18170,11512,12227,9240,8889,9709,12475,8994,6937,7696,7430,7220,9278,7210,7406,10130,8067,9375,8193,9459,7512,7288,8266,13714,13833,9899,9509,9720,7251,7499,6774,6340,11029,124466,72961,13638,11469,8900,9560,10981,8392,21353,9954,9265,8752,7079,7979,7884,6753,7397,7097,7936,6259,9528,9323,7260,5730,6285,6716,7267,6873,6821,6823,6098,6378,6942,6085,7999,7842,6137,5967,6360,7247,6547,7135,7375,7087,8415,8021,9547,8161,10109,6974,6850,9265,9390,7217,8628,7726,7748,7195,11284,7143,6490,9532,6115,6919,8904,7954,6153,5716],"flat_reference_value":17017.34346813935,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[21000.0,19800.0,22200.0,21600.0,23000.0,24500.0,23800.0,21800.0,22500.0,23700.0,27500.0,21000.0,26000.0,24200.0,25000.0,23100.0,23900.0,23400.0,22000.0,26000.0,23500.0,24200.0,22800.0,20000.0,23700.0,21900.0,22900.0,22100.0,23200.0,22500.0,21700.0,22400.0,21900.0,23400.0,24400.0,22100.0,24100.0,22500.0,23000.0,22400.0,23800.0,26600.0,25100.0,26800.0,25900.0,27000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23500.0,22200.0,24500.0,24000.0,39000.0,92000.0,48000.0,42000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,25000.0,68000.0,34000.0,29000.0,26500.0,26000.0,25500.0,24000.0,24500.0,25000.0,25500.0,24000.0,21000.0,24500.0,24000.0,25500.0,23500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22500.0,23000.0,24000.0,22500.0,20500.0,23000.0,21500.0,23000.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,22000.0,27000.0,26000.0,22500.0,23500.0,22000.0,23000.0,27000.0,31000.0,24500.0,23000.0,23500.0,22500.0,24000.0,23500.0,21000.0,24000.0,22500.0,23000.0,24000.0,23500.0,30000.0,24500.0,22500.0,23000.0,23500.0,22000.0,20000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[22400.0,21100.0,23800.0,22100.0,21900.0,23200.0,24600.0,22300.0,23500.0,58400.0,36200.0,23900.0,28700.0,29400.0,31200.0,25800.0,23100.0,21900.0,22400.0,32600.0,24800.0,22900.0,22100.0,21300.0,22500.0,20800.0,21600.0,20900.0,20400.0,20100.0,20700.0,21500.0,20900.0,23400.0,22800.0,24900.0,21800.0,19700.0,20600.0,20200.0,20500.0,22100.0,23800.0,36500.0,27400.0,25600.0,23100.0,20900.0,21700.0,20300.0,21400.0,22600.0,134000.0,192000.0,56800.0,44200.0,35900.0,31400.0,32800.0,24500.0,96500.0,34800.0,26700.0,24900.0,21800.0,31900.0,24600.0,22300.0,24100.0,29800.0,27500.0,25400.0,43200.0,35600.0,23900.0,22400.0,20800.0,23500.0,20900.0,21700.0,19800.0,20600.0,20100.0,19400.0,20800.0,18500.0,24700.0,19600.0,19200.0,18400.0,18900.0,18700.0,19500.0,21300.0,22800.0,18600.0,19700.0,17200.0,17800.0,23400.0,24900.0,17600.0,19200.0,20800.0,16900.0,18500.0,19400.0,24600.0,22300.0,16800.0,16400.0,16100.0,15700.0,21400.0,16900.0,15800.0,16200.0,15600.0,14900.0,14500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[29400.0,28100.0,31200.0,28900.0,27800.0,29600.0,34500.0,30200.0,31100.0,32800.0,36100.0,28500.0,33200.0,31500.0,30100.0,28400.0,27900.0,27200.0,28800.0,37600.0,30400.0,29100.0,28300.0,26900.0,28100.0,26400.0,28700.0,27500.0,26900.0,26200.0,27100.0,28300.0,27800.0,29200.0,30500.0,32100.0,29800.0,26700.0,27500.0,26100.0,25800.0,28900.0,31400.0,40200.0,37100.0,34800.0,32600.0,28400.0,29100.0,27200.0,26500.0,28300.0,48500.0,142000.0,58300.0,44100.0,36900.0,34200.0,37800.0,31600.0,84500.0,46200.0,35400.0,31200.0,29800.0,28500.0,28100.0,27600.0,28900.0,30200.0,29100.0,28400.0,33100.0,38400.0,29500.0,26800.0,27400.0,28200.0,25900.0,26400.0,25300.0,26100.0,27500.0,24800.0,27900.0,24600.0,26100.0,24800.0,25200.0,24100.0,24500.0,25800.0,25100.0,26900.0,27300.0,23900.0,26800.0,25400.0,26200.0,36100.0,41800.0,27400.0,31200.0,26500.0,25100.0,27800.0,29200.0,24100.0,27500.0,24900.0,25600.0,24300.0,24800.0,23900.0,24100.0,24600.0,24200.0,25100.0,25800.0,23500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[18000.0,17500.0,18200.0,17800.0,17000.0,16200.0,16500.0,16000.0,16800.0,17500.0,18500.0,16000.0,18500.0,17800.0,17500.0,17000.0,16800.0,15800.0,15500.0,16500.0,16200.0,16500.0,16300.0,14800.0,16200.0,15800.0,16000.0,15600.0,15200.0,14500.0,14200.0,14300.0,14800.0,15200.0,15500.0,13800.0,15000.0,14600.0,14800.0,14300.0,14000.0,14200.0,13800.0,14500.0,14300.0,15000.0,15200.0,13500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14800.0,15500.0,24000.0,38000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,15000.0,55000.0,21000.0,16000.0,14500.0,13800.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13800.0,14500.0,14200.0,13500.0,19000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13200.0,12800.0,13000.0,12500.0,12200.0,12300.0,12800.0,12600.0,11800.0,13500.0,12500.0,13200.0,12300.0,12000.0,12200.0,13500.0,12500.0,12800.0,12300.0,12000.0,11200.0,12500.0,11800.0,11900.0,11500.0,11300.0,11400.0,12800.0,11800.0,11600.0,12000.0,12300.0,10800.0,12000.0,11200.0,11300.0,10900.0,10700.0,11200.0,10600.0,10400.0,10600.0,10900.0,10700.0,9800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,25000.0,28000.0,24000.0,28000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,36000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,34000.0,75000.0,34000.0,32000.0,29000.0,25000.0,25000.0,22000.0,85000.0,28000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,25000.0,23000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,22000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,15000.0,15000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[7000.0,6500.0,6900.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,7500.0,6800.0,7300.0,7600.0,8200.0,6300.0,9000.0,7000.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7000.0,7400.0,6900.0,7200.0,7300.0,7000.0,5900.0,6800.0,6700.0,7000.0,6900.0,6800.0,6600.0,6600.0,6400.0,6900.0,7200.0,7400.0,6400.0,6800.0,6600.0,6700.0,6900.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,6700.0,7100.0,7200.0,7300.0,6000.0,6800.0,6700.0,6400.0,6000.0,9500.0,24000.0,21000.0,13000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8800.0,6500.0,22000.0,12000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7200.0,6200.0,8000.0,9500.0,7800.0,7400.0,7400.0,7300.0,7000.0,6900.0,7400.0,7300.0,7200.0,6000.0,9000.0,7200.0,7000.0,7000.0,7100.0,7000.0,7200.0,6900.0,7300.0,7400.0,7100.0,5900.0,7000.0,7000.0,7300.0,8000.0,9000.0,7800.0,7600.0,7200.0,7600.0,8000.0,8200.0,6200.0,8500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7200.0,7400.0,9000.0,7400.0,7200.0,7300.0,7400.0,7200.0,6000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[11042.0,9352.0,11038.0,9591.0,9824.0,8395.0,10874.0,9107.0,9498.0,11682.0,13341.0,8213.0,14482.0,10465.0,9779.0,9771.0,9324.0,8898.0,8626.0,14758.0,10412.0,9975.0,9960.0,8034.0,10075.0,10823.0,9500.0,9478.0,8604.0,8223.0,7807.0,8478.0,9035.0,10571.0,9200.0,7726.0,8931.0,8247.0,9127.0,7994.0,8689.0,7438.0,7518.0,7596.0,8667.0,8939.0,9958.0,7863.0,8695.0,8150.0,10892.0,9738.0,12845.0,27840.0,15873.0,11812.0,9715.0,9682.0,11694.0,7948.0,20934.0,12478.0,9842.0,8427.0,7443.0,16583.0,10927.0,8358.0,7634.0,8044.0,9462.0,6551.0,8025.0,8994.0,7645.0,7407.0,6996.0,11038.0,8341.0,6562.0,7335.0,7639.0,7477.0,6090.0,7458.0,6813.0,8517.0,7023.0,6631.0,6272.0,6015.0,7541.0,6879.0,8594.0,7442.0,5769.0,7054.0,6809.0,7136.0,9874.0,11762.0,7118.0,7638.0,5939.0,6776.0,7275.0,9157.0,5572.0,8042.0,5874.0,6441.0,6181.0,5894.0,11047.0,7086.0,5692.0,8573.0,7304.0,6295.0,5129.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5620.0,5510.0,5320.0,5360.0,5200.0,4990.0,4780.0,4730.0,5100.0,5360.0,5860.0,4940.0,9050.0,6740.0,5880.0,5770.0,5600.0,5380.0,5150.0,6600.0,5490.0,5770.0,5610.0,5320.0,6590.0,6470.0,6400.0,6150.0,6100.0,5860.0,5610.0,5550.0,5980.0,6280.0,7080.0,7000.0,7130.0,7000.0,6930.0,6800.0,6600.0,7540.0,7270.0,7200.0,7270.0,6800.0,6640.0,6270.0,7990.0,7840.0,7770.0,8420.0,9600.0,17300.0,8810.0,7530.0,7250.0,7620.0,10120.0,7830.0,18500.0,9980.0,9200.0,9040.0,8000.0,7680.0,7360.0,7410.0,7840.0,8240.0,8240.0,7600.0,11360.0,12190.0,10410.0,9050.0,8200.0,7870.0,7540.0,7460.0,8210.0,8450.0,8450.0,7790.0,10400.0,9220.0,9140.0,8960.0,8700.0,8210.0,8000.0,7920.0,8530.0,10460.0,9960.0,8270.0,10040.0,10040.0,9770.0,12580.0,13800.0,10430.0,8560.0,9660.0,9110.0,9580.0,10580.0,8840.0,10480.0,10280.0,10040.0,11490.0,10700.0,12810.0,10420.0,9430.0,9510.0,9990.0,9990.0,9220.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[5720.0,5460.0,6100.0,5200.0,5100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5400.0,5600.0,7200.0,5300.0,6100.0,5900.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,5200.0,4900.0,10500.0,5900.0,6100.0,6000.0,5800.0,6500.0,6200.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0,6900.0,6600.0,6500.0,6300.0,6200.0,5800.0,5600.0,18000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,6400.0,7800.0,7400.0,7200.0,7000.0,6900.0,25000.0,18500.0,15500.0,12500.0,11000.0,9500.0,7500.0,30000.0,13000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7100.0,6600.0,6400.0,6500.0,7600.0,7800.0,7700.0,7400.0,8200.0,7800.0,11500.0,9500.0,7300.0,6800.0,6500.0,6700.0,7800.0,8000.0,7900.0,7600.0,8400.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,7500.0,7000.0,6700.0,6800.0,8000.0,14500.0,11200.0,7800.0,8600.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,11000.0,7200.0,6900.0,7000.0,8200.0,8500.0,12500.0,8000.0,8800.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,7400.0,7000.0,7200.0,8400.0,8600.0,8500.0,8200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1000.0,930.0,1150.0,980.0,960.0,910.0,860.0,890.0,1080.0,1250.0,1550.0,960.0,1250.0,1080.0,1120.0,1180.0,1060.0,1000.0,950.0,1850.0,1650.0,1260.0,1180.0,1030.0,1120.0,1070.0,1250.0,1130.0,1110.0,1040.0,990.0,1320.0,1390.0,1460.0,1360.0,1160.0,1460.0,1260.0,1360.0,1410.0,1290.0,2120.0,2320.0,1760.0,1660.0,1860.0,1430.0,1210.0,1560.0,1490.0,1610.0,1530.0,2820.0,3420.0,2210.0,2620.0,2120.0,2620.0,2920.0,2210.0,4200.0,2620.0,2120.0,2320.0,2420.0,2020.0,1820.0,1760.0,2120.0,2020.0,2420.0,2120.0,2220.0,2620.0,2420.0,1820.0,1660.0,2120.0,1760.0,1660.0,1920.0,1860.0,2120.0,1760.0,2120.0,2420.0,1920.0,1760.0,1660.0,1560.0,1510.0,1560.0,2220.0,2020.0,1860.0,1610.0,2120.0,1860.0,1960.0,2420.0,2620.0,2020.0,2320.0,2020.0,2120.0,2320.0,2720.0,1860.0,3020.0,2220.0,2320.0,2120.0,2020.0,2620.0,2120.0,1920.0,3220.0,2620.0,2420.0,2020.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2700.0,2800.0,3600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2400.0,2400.0,2700.0,2800.0,4200.0,2300.0,3600.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2700.0,8500.0,6000.0,3800.0,3400.0,2700.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3000.0,3000.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3200.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,12000.0,9500.0,8500.0,6500.0,6000.0,9000.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,5500.0,6000.0,16000.0,40000.0,22000.0,15000.0,10000.0,9000.0,10000.0,6500.0,28000.0,13000.0,8500.0,6500.0,7000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,6500.0,4200.0,5800.0,16000.0,24000.0,11000.0,7500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5200.0,8500.0,6500.0,5800.0,4500.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4800.0,6500.0,6000.0,5000.0,5200.0,20000.0,13000.0,8500.0,5200.0,5400.0,5200.0,5600.0,7500.0,5800.0,8000.0,5500.0,5600.0,6500.0,7000.0,6000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,13000.0,7500.0,5200.0,4800.0,5500.0,4600.0,3800.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,4200.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3700.0,4300.0,3900.0,8800.0,5300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3700.0,4300.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,7400.0,6100.0,5800.0,5100.0,6500.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4200.0,4000.0,4600.0,5000.0,4900.0,4500.0,4800.0,4700.0,6000.0,7000.0,7200.0,8200.0,6000.0,5200.0,6100.0,5600.0,5700.0,5100.0,8400.0,5300.0,5800.0,6200.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,5000.0,5600.0,6200.0,5300.0,5800.0,6700.0,7500.0,6400.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5900.0,5400.0,5300.0,5600.0,5800.0,5700.0,7200.0,5500.0,6000.0,6300.0,12400.0,9600.0,6500.0,5800.0,6700.0,5600.0,6800.0,6000.0,7500.0,6200.0,8300.0,7100.0,6000.0,5600.0,6200.0,7100.0,7000.0,5800.0,7100.0,6600.0,8000.0,6500.0,6100.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,6400.0,7000.0,6600.0,5800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,2000.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,2000.0,1800.0,2000.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,2600.0,3600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,3000.0,2300.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4320.0,3610.0,3880.0,4040.0,3910.0,3290.0,3180.0,3400.0,4380.0,4160.0,3740.0,5100.0,5050.0,3970.0,4140.0,4550.0,4090.0,6700.0,4920.0,3950.0,10370.0,6140.0,4080.0,4050.0,4870.0,3840.0,4010.0,4200.0,3930.0,3420.0,3210.0,3560.0,4330.0,8450.0,3920.0,3580.0,5090.0,4370.0,4560.0,5010.0,4590.0,3910.0,8640.0,4750.0,5690.0,4850.0,8820.0,4460.0,15200.0,8490.0,5210.0,5390.0,5340.0,13860.0,6660.0,5490.0,9720.0,5450.0,6120.0,5150.0,5120.0,4470.0,8210.0,6340.0,4610.0,4750.0,3730.0,3990.0,6070.0,4950.0,4580.0,4180.0,6410.0,5040.0,14850.0,6610.0,5310.0,4520.0,7900.0,4620.0,12580.0,5620.0,5150.0,4730.0,6420.0,5630.0,10350.0,7990.0,5830.0,5980.0,8350.0,5030.0,7970.0,8690.0,5640.0,5280.0,7100.0,6210.0,12400.0,10180.0,8400.0,17610.0,11780.0,6200.0,9500.0,6880.0,6290.0,5790.0,6350.0,5440.0,5880.0,6060.0,5720.0,4940.0,4510.0,5040.0,6210.0,6130.0,5560.0,5170.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[820.0,780.0,850.0,810.0,840.0,790.0,830.0,870.0,900.0,1080.0,1240.0,1010.0,1120.0,1280.0,1050.0,980.0,940.0,920.0,950.0,1390.0,1080.0,1010.0,970.0,900.0,950.0,920.0,980.0,890.0,910.0,870.0,900.0,930.0,890.0,960.0,910.0,840.0,880.0,850.0,910.0,860.0,870.0,820.0,850.0,890.0,860.0,920.0,900.0,810.0,890.0,860.0,1040.0,1160.0,1780.0,2140.0,1510.0,1230.0,1120.0,1420.0,1600.0,1230.0,1970.0,1330.0,1090.0,990.0,950.0,920.0,970.0,1010.0,930.0,980.0,960.0,850.0,900.0,930.0,1060.0,910.0,880.0,860.0,890.0,920.0,870.0,900.0,880.0,790.0,840.0,810.0,850.0,820.0,890.0,860.0,830.0,900.0,870.0,1090.0,1030.0,820.0,870.0,850.0,920.0,1280.0,1530.0,1120.0,970.0,930.0,960.0,1240.0,1180.0,890.0,900.0,870.0,910.0,940.0,890.0,860.0,880.0,920.0,900.0,950.0,930.0,820.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2700.0,2625.0,2625.0,2550.0,2500.0,2375.0,2250.0,2250.0,2550.0,2575.0,2800.0,2300.0,2800.0,2730.0,2750.0,2650.0,2600.0,2480.0,2600.0,2350.0,2650.0,2680.0,2650.0,2400.0,2530.0,2470.0,2450.0,2400.0,2350.0,2230.0,2120.0,2120.0,2400.0,2420.0,2380.0,2150.0,2430.0,2360.0,2340.0,2290.0,2240.0,2180.0,2100.0,2400.0,2550.0,2600.0,2350.0,2080.0,2520.0,2480.0,2600.0,2650.0,2550.0,3300.0,2650.0,2450.0,2420.0,2450.0,2500.0,2350.0,3600.0,2650.0,2550.0,2500.0,2420.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2350.0,2350.0,2300.0,2100.0,2350.0,2280.0,2260.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,1950.0,1950.0,2100.0,2120.0,2080.0,1900.0,2200.0,2130.0,2120.0,2060.0,2010.0,1930.0,1830.0,1820.0,1950.0,1980.0,1930.0,1780.0,2030.0,1970.0,1960.0,1900.0,1860.0,1790.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1850.0,1650.0,1820.0,1770.0,1750.0,1700.0,1670.0,1600.0,1520.0,1500.0,1600.0,1640.0,1600.0,1450.0]}},{"title":"Centrifugal compressor","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Centrifugal compressor\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[12175,13744,14693,14037,14575,13029,11752,12581,13707,14090,15652,13743,12971,13259,15620,14224,15547,11044,11931,11698,13532,13969,15277,12650,12459,12116,13947,13624,12961,9935,10802,10817,10391,12429,12195,10929,11165,10518,12674,12967,11603,9504,9749,9374,9652,11003,11467,9424,9670,9490,9224,11134,10014,8524,8118,7861,9039,10345,9895,9220,8852,8768,10891,10201,8557,8141,7969,6801,7326,8309,7171,7053,6135,6689,6947,6514,6072,5913,5731,5926,6100,6022,7160,6084,6688,6432,7228,6434,7582,6815,6447,6573,6604,6891,6931,6782,7449,6595,6745,6281,6106,5547,5484,4922,4627,4790,4627,4794,4906,4419,4866,4538,4388,4146,3969,4003,3875,4091,4125,3660],"flat_reference_value":17023.528446405904,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[8200.0,8800.0,9600.0,9400.0,9000.0,7900.0,7400.0,7700.0,9000.0,9700.0,9300.0,8000.0,8900.0,9400.0,10300.0,10100.0,9700.0,8400.0,7900.0,8200.0,9500.0,10400.0,10000.0,8500.0,9300.0,9900.0,10900.0,10600.0,10200.0,8800.0,8300.0,8700.0,10000.0,11000.0,10600.0,9000.0,9800.0,10200.0,11300.0,11100.0,10600.0,9200.0,8700.0,9000.0,10400.0,11500.0,11000.0,9300.0,9900.0,10400.0,10200.0,9000.0,8700.0,8300.0,8100.0,8500.0,9800.0,10600.0,10300.0,8800.0,9400.0,10000.0,11000.0,10700.0,10200.0,8900.0,8400.0,8800.0,10100.0,11100.0,10700.0,9100.0,9300.0,9900.0,10900.0,10600.0,10200.0,8800.0,8300.0,8700.0,10000.0,11000.0,10600.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10500.0,10200.0,9800.0,8500.0,8000.0,8300.0,9600.0,10600.0,10200.0,8600.0,8400.0,9000.0,9800.0,9600.0,9200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7800.0,9000.0,9900.0,9500.0,8100.0,7900.0,8400.0,9300.0,9100.0,8700.0,7500.0,7100.0,7400.0,8500.0,9300.0,9000.0,7600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[18200.0,20400.0,22600.0,23100.0,21800.0,18500.0,17600.0,18400.0,20900.0,22800.0,22400.0,18100.0,19000.0,21200.0,23900.0,24200.0,22900.0,19300.0,18500.0,19400.0,21800.0,23800.0,23500.0,18900.0,19800.0,21900.0,24600.0,25100.0,23400.0,19800.0,19100.0,20100.0,22400.0,24700.0,24000.0,19400.0,20200.0,22100.0,24800.0,25000.0,23300.0,19600.0,19000.0,19900.0,22300.0,24500.0,23700.0,19200.0,19900.0,21600.0,20500.0,21200.0,21800.0,19400.0,18700.0,19200.0,21400.0,23200.0,22600.0,18800.0,19500.0,21000.0,23400.0,23600.0,22100.0,18900.0,18100.0,18800.0,21000.0,22700.0,22100.0,18200.0,18900.0,20400.0,22800.0,22900.0,21500.0,19400.0,19800.0,20200.0,22100.0,22900.0,21900.0,17800.0,18300.0,19500.0,21400.0,21000.0,19800.0,17100.0,16400.0,17000.0,18600.0,20100.0,19400.0,15900.0,16500.0,17600.0,19100.0,19300.0,18100.0,15500.0,15000.0,15400.0,16900.0,18300.0,17700.0,14600.0,15100.0,16100.0,17600.0,17800.0,16700.0,14300.0,13900.0,14200.0,15700.0,16900.0,16300.0,13600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[18240.0,20810.0,23150.0,22430.0,19620.0,15730.0,14980.0,16120.0,19740.0,23310.0,24250.0,17380.0,18870.0,21460.0,23820.0,22910.0,20240.0,16180.0,15390.0,16840.0,20520.0,24110.0,24760.0,17950.0,19230.0,21690.0,23940.0,23120.0,19930.0,16040.0,15150.0,16470.0,20210.0,23650.0,24380.0,17610.0,18640.0,20950.0,23110.0,22280.0,19250.0,15410.0,14630.0,15870.0,19620.0,22840.0,23490.0,16980.0,18190.0,20380.0,21250.0,20730.0,18560.0,15020.0,14210.0,15480.0,18970.0,21960.0,22610.0,16450.0,17320.0,19540.0,21760.0,20910.0,18050.0,14590.0,13740.0,15060.0,18320.0,21180.0,21850.0,15820.0,16640.0,18780.0,20850.0,20040.0,17290.0,13860.0,13150.0,14370.0,17510.0,20260.0,20930.0,15110.0,15420.0,17350.0,19280.0,18460.0,15910.0,12750.0,12080.0,13190.0,16120.0,18640.0,19270.0,13950.0,14310.0,16140.0,17920.0,17210.0,14830.0,11880.0,11250.0,12290.0,15040.0,17360.0,17950.0,12980.0,13620.0,15340.0,17050.0,16380.0,14060.0,11270.0,10680.0,11650.0,14230.0,16490.0,17020.0,12340.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[12300.0,13400.0,14000.0,13700.0,13000.0,12000.0,11700.0,11900.0,13000.0,13900.0,13800.0,11400.0,11900.0,12900.0,13500.0,13100.0,12500.0,11500.0,11200.0,11500.0,12500.0,13400.0,13200.0,11000.0,10900.0,11800.0,12400.0,12100.0,11500.0,10600.0,10300.0,10600.0,11500.0,12300.0,12200.0,10100.0,10400.0,11300.0,11900.0,11500.0,11000.0,10100.0,9900.0,10100.0,11000.0,11800.0,11600.0,9700.0,10000.0,10800.0,10600.0,10200.0,10100.0,9700.0,9500.0,9700.0,10500.0,11200.0,11100.0,9200.0,9500.0,10300.0,10800.0,10500.0,10000.0,9200.0,9000.0,9200.0,10000.0,10700.0,10600.0,8800.0,8600.0,9300.0,9700.0,9500.0,9000.0,8300.0,8100.0,8300.0,9000.0,9600.0,9500.0,7900.0,7800.0,8400.0,8900.0,8600.0,8200.0,7500.0,7400.0,7500.0,8200.0,8800.0,8700.0,7200.0,7100.0,7700.0,8100.0,7900.0,7500.0,6900.0,6800.0,6900.0,7500.0,8000.0,7900.0,6600.0,6700.0,7200.0,7600.0,7400.0,7000.0,6400.0,6300.0,6400.0,7000.0,7500.0,7400.0,6200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[18200.0,18700.0,19600.0,19400.0,18600.0,16700.0,16000.0,16400.0,17800.0,18600.0,18500.0,16100.0,17200.0,17500.0,18400.0,18000.0,17400.0,15600.0,15000.0,15300.0,16500.0,17300.0,17200.0,14900.0,15800.0,15900.0,16600.0,16300.0,15600.0,14000.0,13500.0,13700.0,14700.0,15400.0,15300.0,13200.0,14000.0,14100.0,14700.0,14400.0,13800.0,12400.0,12000.0,12200.0,13000.0,13600.0,13500.0,11700.0,12600.0,12500.0,12400.0,13000.0,13200.0,12300.0,11800.0,11600.0,12200.0,12500.0,12300.0,10900.0,11400.0,11300.0,11900.0,11500.0,11000.0,10100.0,9700.0,9700.0,10200.0,10600.0,10500.0,9200.0,9700.0,9700.0,10200.0,9900.0,9500.0,8600.0,8300.0,8400.0,8900.0,9300.0,9200.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,8700.0,8400.0,7600.0,7400.0,7500.0,7900.0,8300.0,8200.0,7200.0,7800.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,7100.0,6900.0,7000.0,7400.0,7700.0,7600.0,6800.0,7300.0,7200.0,7600.0,7400.0,7200.0,6600.0,6400.0,6500.0,6900.0,7200.0,7100.0,6400.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[14900.0,16100.0,16000.0,15800.0,14600.0,13100.0,12200.0,13000.0,15500.0,16700.0,16900.0,13300.0,15600.0,16500.0,17200.0,16300.0,15400.0,13700.0,12900.0,13600.0,16000.0,17500.0,17700.0,14000.0,16100.0,17600.0,17900.0,17200.0,15900.0,14400.0,13500.0,14200.0,16800.0,18100.0,18600.0,14400.0,16700.0,18000.0,18400.0,17500.0,16500.0,14800.0,13900.0,14700.0,17300.0,18600.0,19200.0,14900.0,18200.0,19700.0,20800.0,20500.0,19200.0,16800.0,15500.0,16100.0,18900.0,20400.0,20800.0,16300.0,18500.0,20000.0,20300.0,19600.0,18200.0,16300.0,15400.0,16200.0,19200.0,20600.0,21100.0,16500.0,18000.0,19500.0,19900.0,19100.0,18000.0,16100.0,15200.0,15900.0,18800.0,20300.0,20600.0,16200.0,17700.0,19000.0,19300.0,18800.0,17400.0,15700.0,14700.0,15500.0,18400.0,19700.0,20000.0,15900.0,17500.0,18900.0,19100.0,18600.0,17300.0,15500.0,14600.0,15300.0,18200.0,19500.0,19900.0,15700.0,17200.0,18600.0,18800.0,18300.0,17000.0,15200.0,14300.0,15100.0,17900.0,19100.0,19700.0,15300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3740.0,3364.0,3925.0,3551.0,3323.0,2941.0,2664.0,3007.0,3696.0,3761.0,3688.0,2733.0,3886.0,3615.0,3879.0,3950.0,3628.0,2961.0,3116.0,3026.0,3838.0,4350.0,3827.0,3078.0,4086.0,3840.0,4417.0,3950.0,4049.0,3274.0,3120.0,3551.0,4117.0,4358.0,4442.0,3168.0,4470.0,3877.0,4508.0,4456.0,4090.0,3512.0,3246.0,3662.0,4499.0,4628.0,4580.0,3436.0,4596.0,4429.0,5517.0,5528.0,4689.0,3955.0,3539.0,3803.0,4719.0,4854.0,4757.0,3493.0,4844.0,4247.0,4935.0,4503.0,4524.0,3656.0,3628.0,3659.0,4783.0,5067.0,4677.0,3612.0,4762.0,4562.0,4848.0,4843.0,4581.0,3702.0,3822.0,3901.0,4797.0,4977.0,4930.0,3617.0,4642.0,4108.0,4728.0,4355.0,4508.0,3610.0,3440.0,3953.0,4449.0,5001.0,4524.0,3603.0,4252.0,3899.0,4159.0,4156.0,3891.0,3439.0,3152.0,3414.0,4198.0,4269.0,4315.0,3368.0,3810.0,3580.0,3998.0,3722.0,3665.0,2931.0,3027.0,3057.0,3801.0,4227.0,3866.0,2986.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[9080.0,9340.0,9790.0,9970.0,9350.0,8190.0,7570.0,7300.0,8900.0,9790.0,9610.0,8100.0,9490.0,9770.0,10230.0,10420.0,9770.0,8560.0,7910.0,7630.0,9300.0,10230.0,10040.0,8460.0,9890.0,10190.0,10670.0,10860.0,10190.0,8920.0,8250.0,7950.0,9700.0,10670.0,10480.0,8830.0,10300.0,10610.0,11110.0,11310.0,10610.0,9290.0,8590.0,8280.0,10100.0,11110.0,10910.0,9190.0,11120.0,11450.0,16190.0,15630.0,12820.0,10830.0,9820.0,9390.0,11340.0,12470.0,12240.0,10120.0,11440.0,12710.0,12100.0,12320.0,11550.0,10120.0,9350.0,9020.0,11000.0,12100.0,11880.0,10010.0,11020.0,11340.0,12470.0,12100.0,11340.0,9940.0,9180.0,8860.0,11660.0,12470.0,12010.0,9830.0,11420.0,11760.0,12320.0,12540.0,11760.0,10300.0,9520.0,9180.0,11200.0,12320.0,12100.0,10190.0,11830.0,12180.0,12760.0,12990.0,12180.0,10670.0,9860.0,9510.0,11600.0,12760.0,12530.0,10560.0,12140.0,12500.0,13090.0,13330.0,12500.0,10950.0,10120.0,9760.0,11900.0,13090.0,12850.0,10830.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1280.0,1510.0,1640.0,1580.0,1470.0,1260.0,1180.0,1240.0,1570.0,1710.0,1660.0,1270.0,1340.0,1580.0,1690.0,1640.0,1510.0,1320.0,1230.0,1300.0,1620.0,1760.0,1710.0,1330.0,1390.0,1630.0,1740.0,1690.0,1560.0,1360.0,1270.0,1340.0,1670.0,1810.0,1760.0,1370.0,1430.0,1680.0,1790.0,1740.0,1610.0,1400.0,1310.0,1380.0,1720.0,1860.0,1810.0,1410.0,1390.0,1630.0,1740.0,1690.0,1560.0,1360.0,1270.0,1340.0,1670.0,1810.0,1760.0,1370.0,1430.0,1680.0,1790.0,1740.0,1610.0,1400.0,1310.0,1380.0,1720.0,1860.0,1810.0,1410.0,1470.0,1730.0,1840.0,1790.0,1660.0,1440.0,1350.0,1420.0,1770.0,1910.0,1860.0,1450.0,1430.0,1680.0,1790.0,1740.0,1610.0,1400.0,1310.0,1380.0,1720.0,1860.0,1810.0,1410.0,1390.0,1630.0,1740.0,1690.0,1560.0,1360.0,1270.0,1340.0,1670.0,1810.0,1760.0,1370.0,1340.0,1580.0,1690.0,1640.0,1510.0,1320.0,1230.0,1300.0,1620.0,1760.0,1710.0,1330.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,1860.0,1700.0,1440.0,1460.0,1510.0,2020.0,1940.0,1930.0,1350.0,2010.0,2040.0,2160.0,1870.0,1895.0,1620.0,1445.0,1650.0,2110.0,2230.0,1930.0,1520.0,2080.0,2280.0,2260.0,2200.0,1880.0,1775.0,1570.0,1720.0,2390.0,2260.0,2160.0,1500.0,2350.0,2335.0,2480.0,2210.0,2150.0,1740.0,1780.0,1810.0,2400.0,2660.0,2210.0,1740.0,2530.0,2730.0,3000.0,2710.0,2440.0,2020.0,1975.0,2055.0,2855.0,2790.0,2630.0,1840.0,2750.0,2790.0,2900.0,2750.0,2420.0,2280.0,1960.0,2190.0,2865.0,3120.0,2695.0,2055.0,2740.0,3040.0,3150.0,2685.0,2635.0,2160.0,2115.0,2310.0,3060.0,2980.0,2875.0,2025.0,2720.0,2760.0,2845.0,2670.0,2520.0,2150.0,2100.0,2100.0,2980.0,2910.0,2800.0,1935.0,2500.0,2720.0,2640.0,2525.0,2265.0,2095.0,1815.0,2050.0,2710.0,2890.0,2500.0,1905.0,2420.0,2460.0,2530.0,2280.0,2265.0,1910.0,1835.0,1835.0,2600.0,2590.0,2420.0,1720.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[5184.0,5040.0,5376.0,5280.0,4896.0,4128.0,3744.0,4224.0,5376.0,5280.0,5088.0,3984.0,5616.0,5460.0,5824.0,5720.0,5304.0,4472.0,4056.0,4576.0,5824.0,5720.0,5512.0,4316.0,6048.0,5880.0,6272.0,6160.0,5712.0,4816.0,4368.0,4928.0,6272.0,6160.0,5936.0,4648.0,6588.0,6405.0,6832.0,6710.0,6222.0,5246.0,4758.0,5368.0,6832.0,6710.0,6466.0,5063.0,7452.0,7245.0,7728.0,7590.0,7038.0,5934.0,5382.0,6072.0,7728.0,7590.0,7314.0,5727.0,8208.0,7980.0,8512.0,8360.0,7752.0,6536.0,5928.0,6688.0,8512.0,8360.0,8056.0,6308.0,7776.0,7560.0,8064.0,7920.0,7344.0,6192.0,5616.0,6336.0,8064.0,7920.0,7632.0,5976.0,7452.0,7245.0,7728.0,7590.0,7038.0,5934.0,5382.0,6072.0,7728.0,7590.0,7314.0,5727.0,7128.0,6930.0,7392.0,7260.0,6732.0,5676.0,5148.0,5808.0,7392.0,7260.0,6996.0,5478.0,6912.0,6720.0,7168.0,7040.0,6528.0,5504.0,4992.0,5632.0,7168.0,7040.0,6784.0,5312.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[18250.0,18450.0,17900.0,17700.0,17550.0,17200.0,16850.0,16850.0,18100.0,18600.0,19000.0,17900.0,18750.0,18950.0,18400.0,18200.0,18050.0,17650.0,17300.0,17300.0,18600.0,19150.0,19500.0,18400.0,19300.0,19450.0,18900.0,18700.0,18500.0,18150.0,17750.0,17750.0,19100.0,19650.0,20050.0,18900.0,19800.0,20000.0,19400.0,19200.0,19000.0,18600.0,18250.0,18250.0,19600.0,20200.0,20550.0,19400.0,19800.0,20000.0,18800.0,16600.0,17100.0,18200.0,18100.0,18400.0,19700.0,20300.0,20700.0,19500.0,21100.0,21300.0,20700.0,20500.0,20300.0,19850.0,19450.0,19450.0,20900.0,21550.0,21950.0,20700.0,22700.0,22900.0,23500.0,22200.0,22000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21100.0,22900.0,23800.0,24400.0,23100.0,24500.0,24700.0,24100.0,23750.0,23500.0,23050.0,22550.0,22600.0,24250.0,25000.0,25450.0,24300.0,26800.0,27000.0,26400.0,26000.0,25800.0,25300.0,24800.0,24850.0,26650.0,27450.0,27950.0,26700.0,28850.0,29050.0,28400.0,28000.0,27800.0,27250.0,26700.0,26750.0,28350.0,29200.0,29700.0,28700.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1120.0,1080.0,950.0,900.0,920.0,1100.0,1180.0,1200.0,1000.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1120.0,980.0,930.0,950.0,1150.0,1220.0,1250.0,1050.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1170.0,1020.0,970.0,1000.0,1200.0,1280.0,1300.0,1080.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1050.0,1000.0,1030.0,1250.0,1320.0,1340.0,1120.0,1250.0,1280.0,1250.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1080.0,1280.0,1350.0,1370.0,1150.0,1280.0,1320.0,1380.0,1330.0,1280.0,1120.0,1070.0,1100.0,1300.0,1380.0,1400.0,1180.0,1300.0,1340.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1140.0,1090.0,1120.0,1320.0,1400.0,1420.0,1200.0,1320.0,1360.0,1420.0,1370.0,1320.0,1160.0,1110.0,1140.0,1340.0,1420.0,1440.0,1220.0,1340.0,1380.0,1440.0,1390.0,1340.0,1180.0,1130.0,1160.0,1360.0,1440.0,1460.0,1240.0,1360.0,1400.0,1460.0,1410.0,1360.0,1200.0,1150.0,1180.0,1380.0,1460.0,1480.0,1260.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[800.0,710.0,900.0,660.0,720.0,640.0,490.0,535.0,910.0,845.0,730.0,610.0,825.0,720.0,905.0,700.0,750.0,670.0,515.0,560.0,950.0,880.0,745.0,615.0,900.0,780.0,990.0,805.0,840.0,725.0,555.0,600.0,1035.0,950.0,825.0,680.0,960.0,840.0,1060.0,820.0,905.0,770.0,600.0,650.0,1110.0,1020.0,885.0,735.0,1075.0,960.0,1185.0,970.0,1020.0,870.0,680.0,720.0,1245.0,1150.0,990.0,820.0,1130.0,990.0,1240.0,970.0,1075.0,910.0,705.0,765.0,1305.0,1200.0,1040.0,860.0,1190.0,1040.0,1300.0,1020.0,1120.0,955.0,740.0,800.0,1370.0,1260.0,1090.0,905.0,1245.0,1090.0,1360.0,1070.0,1180.0,1000.0,775.0,840.0,1430.0,1320.0,1140.0,945.0,1300.0,1140.0,1420.0,1110.0,1230.0,1045.0,810.0,875.0,1500.0,1380.0,1195.0,990.0,1355.0,1190.0,1485.0,1165.0,1285.0,1090.0,850.0,915.0,1565.0,1440.0,1245.0,1030.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1640.0,1580.0,1770.0,1680.0,1720.0,1560.0,1450.0,1510.0,1630.0,1740.0,1690.0,1480.0,1700.0,1650.0,1820.0,1760.0,1790.0,1600.0,1510.0,1580.0,1700.0,1810.0,1760.0,1540.0,1780.0,1710.0,1880.0,1810.0,1840.0,1650.0,1540.0,1630.0,1740.0,1850.0,1800.0,1580.0,1820.0,1770.0,1930.0,1850.0,1870.0,1690.0,1580.0,1660.0,1780.0,1900.0,1840.0,1620.0,1900.0,1840.0,2040.0,2110.0,2050.0,1820.0,1700.0,1770.0,1900.0,1980.0,1900.0,1690.0,1880.0,1810.0,1970.0,1900.0,1930.0,1740.0,1630.0,1690.0,1810.0,1900.0,1840.0,1610.0,1760.0,1690.0,1840.0,1770.0,1800.0,1620.0,1510.0,1580.0,1690.0,1780.0,1710.0,1500.0,1650.0,1580.0,1730.0,1660.0,1690.0,1510.0,1410.0,1480.0,1570.0,1660.0,1610.0,1410.0,1580.0,1510.0,1650.0,1580.0,1610.0,1450.0,1350.0,1420.0,1510.0,1590.0,1540.0,1350.0,1510.0,1450.0,1590.0,1520.0,1550.0,1400.0,1300.0,1370.0,1450.0,1530.0,1480.0,1300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1208.0,1265.0,1265.0,1208.0,1150.0,1012.0,943.0,978.0,1208.0,1265.0,1208.0,1012.0,1239.0,1298.0,1298.0,1239.0,1180.0,1038.0,968.0,1003.0,1239.0,1298.0,1239.0,1038.0,1260.0,1320.0,1320.0,1260.0,1200.0,1056.0,984.0,1020.0,1260.0,1320.0,1260.0,1056.0,1208.0,1265.0,1265.0,1208.0,1150.0,1012.0,943.0,978.0,1208.0,1265.0,1208.0,1012.0,1208.0,1265.0,1320.0,1265.0,1200.0,1040.0,960.0,990.0,1208.0,1265.0,1208.0,1012.0,1155.0,1210.0,1210.0,1155.0,1100.0,968.0,902.0,935.0,1155.0,1210.0,1155.0,968.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,880.0,820.0,850.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,880.0,945.0,990.0,990.0,945.0,900.0,792.0,738.0,765.0,945.0,990.0,945.0,792.0,840.0,880.0,880.0,840.0,800.0,704.0,656.0,680.0,840.0,880.0,840.0,704.0,735.0,770.0,770.0,735.0,700.0,616.0,574.0,595.0,735.0,770.0,735.0,616.0]}},{"title":"Charles Sanders Peirce","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Charles Sanders Peirce\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[13484,14362,14111,15178,13476,11697,11176,11413,14589,14604,15621,14672,14972,14793,16693,14420,15000,12116,11988,16629,13736,15579,15086,14430,14337,13754,14981,14501,13724,11988,13326,13366,14668,16272,16090,20146,16869,13968,14016,13676,13832,11671,11486,15548,14768,16267,14619,12979,13103,12492,13214,14784,13023,10932,10489,11949,14806,12996,12888,12265,12063,11898,13544,14720,13262,10973,11447,11342,12999,14214,12622,11622,13442,11912,12777,12147,11796,10289,10025,10541,11465,11910,12328,11396,12041,11059,12419,12051,12286,11606,10628,11219,12149,12343,11850,10892,13196,12711,13017,12278,11961,10899,9887,10611,12053,11682,11244,11582,11317,11003,11326,10432,10665,9837,9041,10308,11444,11817,10806,10026],"flat_reference_value":16987.78228490492,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[20500.0,21300.0,22400.0,22000.0,20500.0,17600.0,16800.0,17800.0,21300.0,23200.0,22200.0,19000.0,21800.0,21800.0,23600.0,22400.0,21300.0,18300.0,17500.0,18700.0,22400.0,24400.0,23100.0,19900.0,22600.0,22500.0,24300.0,23500.0,22000.0,19000.0,18200.0,19400.0,23500.0,25400.0,24000.0,20700.0,23400.0,23100.0,24900.0,24200.0,22900.0,19600.0,18800.0,20000.0,25500.0,26200.0,24800.0,21400.0,24200.0,23700.0,25100.0,25200.0,23500.0,20500.0,19800.0,20800.0,25000.0,26800.0,25400.0,22000.0,25000.0,24200.0,26200.0,25400.0,23800.0,20500.0,19600.0,21000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25500.0,21900.0,24400.0,23500.0,25500.0,24700.0,23200.0,20000.0,19200.0,20500.0,24500.0,26400.0,24900.0,21400.0,24000.0,23100.0,25100.0,24300.0,22800.0,19600.0,18800.0,20200.0,24100.0,26000.0,24500.0,21100.0,23600.0,23000.0,24600.0,24000.0,22400.0,19200.0,18400.0,19800.0,23600.0,25500.0,24000.0,20700.0,23100.0,22200.0,24000.0,23300.0,21800.0,18700.0,18000.0,19300.0,23000.0,24900.0,23400.0,20100.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[34200.0,38500.0,39800.0,39100.0,35400.0,28600.0,27400.0,29100.0,38900.0,42300.0,40800.0,33500.0,34800.0,38900.0,41200.0,39500.0,35800.0,28900.0,27800.0,29500.0,39400.0,42800.0,41100.0,33200.0,34500.0,38200.0,40600.0,39200.0,35100.0,28100.0,27200.0,28900.0,38700.0,41900.0,40200.0,32800.0,34100.0,37900.0,40100.0,38800.0,34900.0,27900.0,26900.0,28700.0,39600.0,41600.0,39800.0,32400.0,33900.0,37400.0,35800.0,38900.0,36200.0,29800.0,28500.0,30100.0,38800.0,41400.0,39600.0,33100.0,34600.0,37500.0,39700.0,38200.0,34400.0,27800.0,26700.0,28300.0,37400.0,39900.0,38400.0,31500.0,32900.0,35800.0,37900.0,36400.0,32800.0,26400.0,25500.0,27100.0,35900.0,38200.0,36700.0,29800.0,31200.0,33800.0,35600.0,34100.0,30700.0,24800.0,24100.0,25400.0,33400.0,35500.0,34100.0,27900.0,29100.0,31600.0,33200.0,32100.0,28900.0,23500.0,22800.0,24100.0,31500.0,33600.0,32100.0,26400.0,27600.0,30100.0,31800.0,30700.0,27600.0,22400.0,21900.0,23100.0,30200.0,32100.0,30800.0,25300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[25100.0,29800.0,33400.0,34100.0,30200.0,21300.0,20100.0,21800.0,28900.0,34800.0,36200.0,25400.0,26000.0,30500.0,34800.0,35200.0,31100.0,22200.0,20800.0,22500.0,29600.0,35600.0,36900.0,26100.0,26900.0,31300.0,35700.0,36000.0,31900.0,22800.0,21400.0,23200.0,30400.0,36500.0,37700.0,26800.0,27400.0,31800.0,36100.0,36400.0,32100.0,23000.0,21700.0,23500.0,30900.0,36800.0,38100.0,27100.0,27800.0,32400.0,34200.0,37100.0,33500.0,24100.0,22800.0,24600.0,31700.0,37400.0,38600.0,27500.0,28100.0,32900.0,36800.0,37200.0,32800.0,23600.0,22100.0,23900.0,31200.0,36900.0,37800.0,26900.0,27300.0,31500.0,35400.0,35800.0,31400.0,22500.0,21000.0,22800.0,29800.0,35200.0,36100.0,25600.0,26100.0,30200.0,34100.0,34400.0,29900.0,21400.0,19900.0,21600.0,28200.0,33700.0,34500.0,24200.0,24900.0,28900.0,32700.0,33100.0,28700.0,20600.0,19100.0,20800.0,27100.0,32400.0,33200.0,23400.0,24200.0,28000.0,31800.0,32100.0,27900.0,20000.0,18500.0,20200.0,26400.0,31500.0,32300.0,22800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[32300.0,34700.0,36700.0,35700.0,33300.0,28900.0,27900.0,28900.0,33300.0,37400.0,38100.0,29900.0,30400.0,32600.0,34600.0,33600.0,31400.0,27200.0,26200.0,27200.0,31400.0,35200.0,35800.0,28200.0,28500.0,30600.0,32400.0,31500.0,29400.0,25500.0,24600.0,25500.0,29400.0,33000.0,33600.0,26400.0,27100.0,29100.0,30800.0,29900.0,27900.0,24200.0,23400.0,24200.0,27900.0,31400.0,31900.0,25100.0,26600.0,28600.0,31500.0,32300.0,29800.0,24600.0,23500.0,23800.0,27400.0,30800.0,31400.0,24600.0,24700.0,26500.0,28100.0,27300.0,25500.0,22100.0,21300.0,22100.0,25500.0,28600.0,29100.0,22900.0,22800.0,24500.0,25900.0,25200.0,23500.0,20400.0,19700.0,20400.0,23500.0,26400.0,26900.0,21100.0,21400.0,23000.0,24300.0,23600.0,22100.0,19100.0,18500.0,19100.0,22100.0,24800.0,25200.0,19800.0,20000.0,21400.0,22700.0,22100.0,20600.0,17900.0,17200.0,17900.0,20600.0,23100.0,23500.0,18500.0,18100.0,19400.0,20500.0,20000.0,18600.0,16200.0,15600.0,16200.0,18600.0,20900.0,21300.0,16700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[46000.0,47000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,45000.0,48000.0,47000.0,41000.0,44000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,35000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,33000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,41000.0,41000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,34000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,32000.0,32000.0,28000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[12850.0,15600.0,14240.0,12830.0,12330.0,10500.0,10080.0,11140.0,13000.0,14000.0,13340.0,11570.0,12340.0,12580.0,13200.0,12320.0,11840.0,10080.0,9680.0,10700.0,12400.0,13440.0,12810.0,11110.0,11830.0,12060.0,12650.0,11820.0,11350.0,9660.0,9280.0,10250.0,11890.0,12890.0,12280.0,10650.0,11320.0,11540.0,12110.0,11310.0,10860.0,9250.0,8880.0,9810.0,11590.0,12330.0,11750.0,10190.0,10810.0,11020.0,12720.0,11340.0,10370.0,8830.0,8480.0,9370.0,10690.0,11780.0,11220.0,9730.0,10400.0,10600.0,11130.0,10390.0,9980.0,8500.0,8160.0,9020.0,11180.0,11330.0,10800.0,9360.0,10000.0,10190.0,10690.0,9980.0,9590.0,8160.0,7840.0,8660.0,10030.0,10890.0,10370.0,9000.0,9590.0,9770.0,10250.0,9570.0,9200.0,7830.0,7520.0,8310.0,9630.0,10440.0,9950.0,8630.0,9180.0,9360.0,9820.0,9170.0,8810.0,7500.0,7200.0,7960.0,9670.0,10000.0,9530.0,8260.0,8870.0,9040.0,9490.0,8860.0,8510.0,7250.0,6960.0,7690.0,9170.0,9670.0,9210.0,7990.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[17384.0,17145.0,18235.0,16870.0,14990.0,12060.0,11805.0,13700.0,16630.0,18140.0,17170.0,12555.0,17002.0,16684.0,17700.0,16570.0,14750.0,11950.0,11565.0,13350.0,16340.0,17960.0,16480.0,12356.0,16470.0,16756.0,16710.0,16520.0,13840.0,12000.0,10970.0,12920.0,16690.0,16750.0,16430.0,12104.0,15620.0,16378.0,16740.0,15650.0,13890.0,11360.0,11040.0,12090.0,16160.0,16220.0,15980.0,11732.0,16430.0,16376.0,19820.0,20580.0,16740.0,12520.0,11540.0,12780.0,16130.0,17250.0,16590.0,12144.0,15400.0,15276.0,16130.0,14940.0,13300.0,10890.0,10560.0,12010.0,14970.0,16210.0,15020.0,11254.0,14590.0,14452.0,15275.0,14230.0,12605.0,10340.0,10020.0,11380.0,14670.0,14815.0,14560.0,10680.0,13410.0,13260.0,13990.0,12990.0,11570.0,9450.0,9180.0,10460.0,13010.0,14080.0,13040.0,9780.0,12710.0,12618.0,13290.0,12400.0,10980.0,8990.0,8710.0,9910.0,12780.0,12910.0,12680.0,9300.0,12030.0,11960.0,12590.0,11730.0,10400.0,8520.0,8250.0,9390.0,12080.0,12240.0,12010.0,8800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[29100.0,29700.0,30200.0,30000.0,28000.0,25800.0,24600.0,25200.0,28000.0,29700.0,30000.0,27400.0,28800.0,29400.0,29900.0,29600.0,27700.0,25500.0,24400.0,24900.0,27700.0,29400.0,29600.0,27100.0,28500.0,29000.0,29600.0,29300.0,27400.0,25200.0,24100.0,24700.0,27400.0,29000.0,29300.0,26900.0,28200.0,28700.0,29300.0,29000.0,27100.0,24900.0,23800.0,24400.0,27100.0,28700.0,29000.0,26600.0,28000.0,28500.0,30200.0,29900.0,28000.0,25200.0,24100.0,24700.0,26900.0,28500.0,28800.0,26400.0,27600.0,28100.0,28600.0,28400.0,26500.0,24400.0,23300.0,23900.0,26500.0,28100.0,28400.0,26000.0,27100.0,27700.0,28200.0,27900.0,26100.0,24000.0,23000.0,23500.0,26100.0,27700.0,27900.0,27600.0,29400.0,27200.0,27800.0,27500.0,25700.0,25100.0,24000.0,24500.0,27000.0,28600.0,28900.0,26400.0,27800.0,28300.0,28600.0,28300.0,25700.0,23600.0,22600.0,23100.0,25700.0,26700.0,27000.0,24700.0,25500.0,25800.0,26000.0,25600.0,23700.0,21500.0,20300.0,20600.0,22700.0,23900.0,23900.0,21700.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2840.0,2670.0,2420.0,2380.0,2510.0,3100.0,3090.0,3000.0,2630.0,2920.0,3030.0,3130.0,3310.0,2880.0,2610.0,2570.0,2700.0,3280.0,3330.0,3230.0,2830.0,3140.0,3250.0,3360.0,3290.0,3090.0,2800.0,2750.0,2900.0,3520.0,3560.0,3460.0,3020.0,3360.0,3480.0,3600.0,3870.0,3310.0,2990.0,2940.0,3090.0,3480.0,3800.0,3680.0,3220.0,3590.0,3710.0,3830.0,4120.0,3520.0,3180.0,3130.0,3290.0,4140.0,4040.0,3910.0,3420.0,3810.0,3930.0,4060.0,4290.0,3730.0,3370.0,3310.0,3480.0,3910.0,4280.0,4140.0,3620.0,4030.0,4160.0,4300.0,4200.0,3940.0,3560.0,3500.0,3670.0,4460.0,4510.0,4370.0,3820.0,4250.0,4390.0,4530.0,4870.0,4150.0,3750.0,3690.0,3870.0,4350.0,4750.0,4600.0,4020.0,4470.0,4610.0,4760.0,4650.0,4370.0,3940.0,3870.0,4060.0,5120.0,4990.0,4830.0,4220.0,4690.0,4840.0,5000.0,5270.0,4580.0,4140.0,4060.0,4260.0,4790.0,5220.0,5060.0,4420.0],"meta/muse-ember":[6093.0,5865.0,6207.0,5900.0,5626.0,4777.0,4760.0,5107.0,6521.0,6618.0,6128.0,5398.0,6307.0,5865.0,6425.0,6107.0,5823.0,4944.0,4927.0,5286.0,6750.0,6850.0,6343.0,5587.0,6521.0,6063.0,6643.0,6314.0,6021.0,5112.0,5094.0,5466.0,6978.0,7082.0,6558.0,5777.0,6735.0,6262.0,6861.0,6521.0,6218.0,5279.0,5261.0,5645.0,9009.0,7314.0,6773.0,5966.0,7162.0,6894.0,8610.0,7767.0,7010.0,5615.0,5595.0,6003.0,8048.0,8168.0,7203.0,6345.0,7376.0,6859.0,7514.0,7142.0,6810.0,5782.0,5762.0,6182.0,7894.0,8011.0,7418.0,6534.0,7590.0,7057.0,7732.0,7349.0,7008.0,5950.0,5929.0,6362.0,8122.0,8243.0,7633.0,6724.0,8124.0,7554.0,8276.0,7866.0,7501.0,6369.0,6346.0,6810.0,9738.0,9882.0,9150.0,7917.0,8552.0,8232.0,8712.0,8280.0,7896.0,6704.0,6680.0,7168.0,10525.0,10681.0,8600.0,7576.0,8873.0,8250.0,9039.0,8591.0,8192.0,6955.0,6931.0,7437.0,9495.0,9636.0,8923.0,7860.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[17200.0,19900.0,21500.0,20700.0,19400.0,16100.0,14800.0,16800.0,22300.0,21400.0,20300.0,15500.0,17900.0,20700.0,22300.0,21500.0,19900.0,16600.0,15400.0,17500.0,23100.0,22400.0,20800.0,16200.0,18700.0,21600.0,23300.0,22500.0,20800.0,17400.0,16100.0,18600.0,24200.0,23300.0,22000.0,17000.0,20100.0,23300.0,25100.0,24200.0,22300.0,18400.0,17300.0,19600.0,35100.0,25000.0,23700.0,18200.0,21600.0,25000.0,29600.0,28000.0,24000.0,20100.0,19100.0,21100.0,27900.0,27000.0,25500.0,19600.0,23100.0,26300.0,28400.0,27300.0,25300.0,21200.0,19600.0,22200.0,29400.0,28400.0,26800.0,20600.0,22200.0,25700.0,27700.0,27500.0,24700.0,20700.0,19200.0,21700.0,28700.0,27700.0,26200.0,20200.0,20900.0,24300.0,26200.0,25200.0,23300.0,19500.0,18100.0,20500.0,27600.0,26200.0,24800.0,19000.0,19400.0,22400.0,24800.0,24000.0,21600.0,18000.0,16700.0,18900.0,25100.0,24200.0,22900.0,17600.0,18000.0,20900.0,22600.0,21200.0,20100.0,16800.0,15600.0,17600.0,23400.0,22600.0,21300.0,16400.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[34200.0,36800.0,38100.0,39400.0,39000.0,36700.0,33500.0,33800.0,37000.0,42500.0,40200.0,35600.0,37500.0,40000.0,41500.0,42200.0,42000.0,39500.0,36000.0,36400.0,39800.0,45800.0,43500.0,38400.0,41000.0,43400.0,44700.0,45500.0,45000.0,42400.0,38500.0,39000.0,42500.0,49200.0,46800.0,41500.0,43500.0,45700.0,47000.0,47800.0,47300.0,44600.0,40500.0,49000.0,236500.0,112400.0,72500.0,52000.0,58500.0,60200.0,64000.0,78500.0,75000.0,70500.0,64000.0,62500.0,70000.0,78500.0,72000.0,62000.0,66000.0,67000.0,68000.0,68500.0,67500.0,64500.0,59500.0,59000.0,65000.0,73000.0,69000.0,61000.0,62500.0,63500.0,64500.0,64500.0,63500.0,60500.0,55500.0,55500.0,61500.0,69500.0,65500.0,58000.0,76000.0,86500.0,79000.0,74000.0,73000.0,68500.0,62500.0,62000.0,68000.0,75000.0,71000.0,64000.0,68500.0,70500.0,71500.0,70500.0,70000.0,66500.0,61000.0,60500.0,66500.0,73500.0,70000.0,63000.0,66500.0,70000.0,71000.0,71000.0,70500.0,67000.0,62000.0,62000.0,68000.0,75000.0,71000.0,64500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,3900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,4000.0,4400.0,4400.0,3500.0,3900.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,3900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,4000.0,4400.0,4400.0,3500.0,3900.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,3900.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,3900.0,4300.0,4300.0,3400.0,3800.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,3800.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3900.0,4300.0,4200.0,3300.0,3800.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3900.0,4300.0,4300.0,3400.0,3800.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,3800.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4200.0,3300.0,3700.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,3700.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,3800.0,4100.0,4100.0,3200.0,3600.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3600.0,2900.0,2700.0,2900.0,3600.0,3900.0,3900.0,3000.0,3400.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,3400.0,2700.0,2500.0,2700.0,3400.0,3700.0,3700.0,2800.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3200.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,3200.0,3500.0,3500.0,2600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4780.0,4420.0,4290.0,3950.0,3690.0,3010.0,2680.0,4080.0,4700.0,4360.0,3990.0,2920.0,4950.0,4620.0,4450.0,4110.0,3860.0,3150.0,2820.0,4240.0,4870.0,4590.0,4170.0,3070.0,5170.0,4840.0,4680.0,4290.0,3990.0,3270.0,2950.0,4420.0,5090.0,4760.0,4340.0,3180.0,5440.0,5090.0,4870.0,4500.0,4190.0,3450.0,3100.0,4640.0,5330.0,4990.0,4570.0,3340.0,5880.0,5500.0,6180.0,5620.0,5090.0,4070.0,3720.0,5380.0,5960.0,5600.0,5050.0,3750.0,6400.0,5850.0,5840.0,5300.0,4880.0,4050.0,3650.0,5450.0,6380.0,5780.0,5280.0,3850.0,6600.0,6050.0,6120.0,5350.0,4980.0,4150.0,3720.0,5570.0,6600.0,5950.0,5420.0,4020.0,6750.0,6700.0,6350.0,5600.0,5250.0,4320.0,3900.0,5800.0,6900.0,6300.0,5720.0,4200.0,7050.0,7050.0,6580.0,5900.0,5500.0,4550.0,4100.0,6100.0,7200.0,6650.0,6000.0,4380.0,7450.0,6900.0,6850.0,6200.0,5750.0,4700.0,4250.0,6400.0,7550.0,6950.0,6350.0,4600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2350.0,2180.0,2530.0,2400.0,2460.0,2210.0,2090.0,2200.0,2670.0,2780.0,2460.0,2170.0,2420.0,2260.0,2610.0,2470.0,2550.0,2300.0,2160.0,2280.0,2790.0,2860.0,2540.0,2240.0,2480.0,2300.0,2670.0,2510.0,2580.0,2310.0,2180.0,2310.0,2810.0,2920.0,2600.0,2250.0,2500.0,2320.0,2710.0,2550.0,2630.0,2360.0,2210.0,2330.0,2870.0,2980.0,2640.0,2300.0,2560.0,2440.0,2920.0,3240.0,3110.0,2940.0,2730.0,2820.0,3260.0,3400.0,3090.0,2760.0,2850.0,2660.0,2980.0,2810.0,2870.0,2600.0,2430.0,2540.0,3010.0,3130.0,2810.0,2480.0,2690.0,2510.0,2860.0,2700.0,2770.0,2490.0,2330.0,2450.0,2920.0,3050.0,2740.0,2410.0,2730.0,2530.0,2920.0,2760.0,2830.0,2540.0,2390.0,2510.0,3000.0,3140.0,2810.0,2470.0,2840.0,2630.0,3020.0,2870.0,2940.0,2650.0,2480.0,2600.0,3100.0,3260.0,2910.0,2550.0,2790.0,2580.0,2970.0,2810.0,2890.0,2600.0,2440.0,2560.0,3040.0,3190.0,2860.0,2510.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[9500.0,9800.0,10200.0,9000.0,8800.0,8200.0,7600.0,7400.0,9800.0,10000.0,9600.0,8000.0,9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,8600.0,8400.0,7900.0,7300.0,7100.0,9300.0,9500.0,9100.0,7600.0,9000.0,9300.0,9500.0,8300.0,8000.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,7300.0,9000.0,9400.0,9600.0,8400.0,8100.0,7700.0,7100.0,6900.0,9100.0,9300.0,8900.0,7300.0,9200.0,9800.0,10500.0,9600.0,9200.0,8600.0,8100.0,7800.0,9300.0,9400.0,9000.0,7800.0,8700.0,8900.0,9000.0,8000.0,7700.0,7300.0,6900.0,6700.0,8500.0,8600.0,8200.0,6900.0,8200.0,8400.0,8500.0,7600.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6300.0,8000.0,8100.0,7700.0,6500.0,7600.0,7800.0,7900.0,7000.0,6700.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,7300.0,7300.0,7000.0,5900.0,7000.0,7200.0,7200.0,6400.0,6100.0,5800.0,5500.0,5300.0,6600.0,6600.0,6300.0,5300.0,6300.0,6400.0,6400.0,5700.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,5800.0,5800.0,5500.0,4700.0]}},{"title":"Gareth Peirce","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Gareth Peirce\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3494,3769,3813,2404,2611,3344,2456,2691,1905,2615,2657,2488,3182,2356,2670,2392,2227,3041,2437,3591,2151,2967,2878,2460,3364,3218,2967,2254,2163,1921,2621,2224,2483,2797,4512,2915,4123,3301,4812,12432,3630,3435,2735,4201,2774,2653,2929,3095,2665,2642,2590,5246,3149,3511,2958,3759,3479,5710,9670,5624,5814,4507,7486,15870,6726,6170,6166,4223,4825,4460,3512,3121,4750,4539,4756,4838,7154,5358,3532,2889,2810,3383,4522,6889,4741,19023,6471,3880,4229,4594,9188,12668,5338,4635,4669,4401,6754,20373,6026,8648,3821,5817,3861,5114,6318,5744,7004,8308,6581,4378,4336,4918,6118,14957,9890,8185,6270,6233,5764,7395],"flat_reference_value":17082.909516871834,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2150.0,1820.0,1950.0,1780.0,1860.0,1640.0,1720.0,1690.0,1900.0,2050.0,1970.0,2210.0,2360.0,1930.0,2100.0,1960.0,2030.0,1790.0,1840.0,1810.0,2050.0,2170.0,2110.0,2300.0,2450.0,2010.0,2230.0,2050.0,2160.0,1900.0,1980.0,1920.0,2200.0,2320.0,2250.0,2420.0,2540.0,2240.0,2480.0,6800.0,3850.0,2750.0,2490.0,2250.0,2510.0,2820.0,2530.0,2670.0,2780.0,3020.0,2650.0,2420.0,2560.0,2280.0,2390.0,2310.0,3200.0,2850.0,2600.0,2760.0,3850.0,2610.0,2750.0,2500.0,2600.0,2310.0,2380.0,2250.0,2520.0,2680.0,2560.0,2830.0,2870.0,2520.0,2660.0,2570.0,2640.0,2900.0,2370.0,2280.0,2510.0,2700.0,2560.0,2800.0,2930.0,2440.0,2610.0,2470.0,2550.0,2300.0,2350.0,2260.0,2490.0,2650.0,2540.0,2810.0,2900.0,2940.0,2770.0,2540.0,2700.0,5200.0,3100.0,2400.0,2520.0,2700.0,2580.0,2860.0,2950.0,2460.0,2600.0,2450.0,2520.0,2260.0,2340.0,2240.0,2460.0,2630.0,2510.0,2800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[6120.0,5640.0,6890.0,5780.0,5490.0,5310.0,5580.0,5420.0,5690.0,5950.0,6210.0,5840.0,6430.0,5810.0,7150.0,6020.0,5740.0,5520.0,5890.0,5670.0,5910.0,6340.0,6180.0,6090.0,6650.0,5940.0,7320.0,6150.0,5880.0,5610.0,5790.0,5920.0,6080.0,6470.0,6830.0,6290.0,6740.0,6120.0,7480.0,10450.0,7620.0,6490.0,6180.0,6050.0,6390.0,6950.0,6710.0,6480.0,7120.0,8460.0,8690.0,8920.0,8340.0,7580.0,7240.0,7190.0,9680.0,7850.0,7490.0,7360.0,10840.0,7920.0,8540.0,7410.0,7080.0,6750.0,7190.0,6840.0,6920.0,7680.0,7140.0,8730.0,7450.0,6580.0,7690.0,6890.0,6320.0,7410.0,6190.0,6040.0,6280.0,6510.0,6390.0,6120.0,6640.0,5890.0,7080.0,6140.0,6950.0,6230.0,5870.0,5710.0,5840.0,6090.0,5960.0,5780.0,6210.0,7840.0,7420.0,6080.0,6790.0,12460.0,7350.0,5690.0,5540.0,5720.0,6890.0,7480.0,6920.0,5460.0,6580.0,6190.0,8940.0,6420.0,7150.0,5380.0,5240.0,5410.0,5530.0,5390.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2180.0,2040.0,2110.0,1950.0,1820.0,1750.0,1890.0,1780.0,1920.0,2240.0,2100.0,1980.0,2150.0,1870.0,2060.0,1930.0,2210.0,1850.0,1790.0,1910.0,1830.0,2020.0,2140.0,1990.0,2220.0,1880.0,2010.0,1940.0,1830.0,1790.0,1820.0,1760.0,1890.0,2150.0,2280.0,2050.0,2130.0,3820.0,4410.0,8250.0,4120.0,2860.0,2420.0,2290.0,2350.0,2710.0,2480.0,2190.0,2380.0,3120.0,2690.0,3050.0,2840.0,2290.0,3610.0,2150.0,2820.0,2430.0,2320.0,2190.0,2850.0,3740.0,2610.0,2230.0,2080.0,1940.0,2010.0,1980.0,2150.0,2420.0,2260.0,2510.0,2290.0,2070.0,2410.0,2380.0,2120.0,2250.0,1980.0,1860.0,2010.0,2180.0,2090.0,1970.0,2160.0,2890.0,2340.0,2050.0,1920.0,1880.0,1810.0,1870.0,1990.0,2240.0,2110.0,1950.0,2080.0,2420.0,2210.0,2140.0,2290.0,4820.0,2850.0,2130.0,2060.0,2270.0,2180.0,2010.0,2150.0,2040.0,2120.0,1970.0,1890.0,1840.0,1810.0,1780.0,1890.0,2080.0,1990.0,1920.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,2900.0,2850.0,2700.0,2650.0,2500.0,2450.0,2400.0,2550.0,2700.0,2750.0,2900.0,3000.0,2700.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2450.0,2600.0,2650.0,2700.0,2800.0,3400.0,2700.0,2550.0,2450.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2350.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2450.0,2500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2250.0,2350.0,2400.0,2450.0,2500.0,2300.0,2350.0,2250.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2350.0,2150.0,2150.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,2050.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2000.0,2050.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1850.0,1950.0,2000.0,2050.0,2100.0,1950.0,1950.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2300.0,2000.0,2050.0,1850.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1850.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3700.0,4200.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3700.0,4200.0,3900.0,3900.0,4200.0,9500.0,6000.0,4800.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,4500.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,6500.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,5500.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,6500.0,4300.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3900.0,3600.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3700.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3600.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,4200.0,3800.0,3500.0,3700.0,6500.0,3800.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,4500.0,4200.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,4500.0,11000.0,5000.0,8000.0,7500.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[460.0,640.0,520.0,430.0,450.0,470.0,540.0,430.0,470.0,660.0,760.0,480.0,830.0,570.0,550.0,510.0,1180.0,610.0,520.0,470.0,500.0,540.0,570.0,770.0,540.0,500.0,630.0,560.0,500.0,470.0,450.0,430.0,460.0,480.0,570.0,460.0,520.0,530.0,640.0,9100.0,2650.0,1150.0,820.0,660.0,560.0,760.0,570.0,490.0,650.0,1720.0,870.0,650.0,540.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,1420.0,1240.0,570.0,610.0,3300.0,1050.0,720.0,760.0,610.0,590.0,540.0,540.0,570.0,1520.0,2150.0,960.0,860.0,710.0,1060.0,650.0,710.0,2350.0,1010.0,660.0,600.0,650.0,570.0,530.0,660.0,1310.0,710.0,630.0,650.0,1450.0,700.0,570.0,570.0,590.0,610.0,790.0,1310.0,1920.0,1120.0,710.0,2420.0,4250.0,1320.0,700.0,630.0,900.0,650.0,570.0,570.0,540.0,570.0,520.0,510.0,530.0,520.0,470.0,490.0,690.0,620.0,510.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2234.0,1956.0,1892.0,1723.0,1688.0,1521.0,1389.0,1412.0,1654.0,1789.0,1823.0,1544.0,2087.0,1812.0,1765.0,1623.0,1598.0,1422.0,1298.0,1405.0,1641.0,1712.0,1745.0,1398.0,1984.0,1762.0,3428.0,1638.0,1511.0,1387.0,1302.0,1329.0,1612.0,1728.0,1635.0,1367.0,2195.0,1917.0,1899.0,1715.0,2845.0,1563.0,1408.0,1492.0,2421.0,1854.0,1761.0,1462.0,2489.0,3185.0,2264.0,2038.0,1923.0,1745.0,1582.0,1627.0,1948.0,2093.0,1987.0,1658.0,2682.0,2105.0,2023.0,1887.0,1764.0,1649.0,1513.0,1622.0,1891.0,2014.0,1932.0,1594.0,2258.0,1973.0,2387.0,1769.0,1721.0,1548.0,1437.0,1524.0,1773.0,1859.0,1866.0,1492.0,2112.0,1839.0,1815.0,1642.0,1607.0,1441.0,1338.0,1426.0,1668.0,1734.0,1741.0,1395.0,2153.0,1886.0,1862.0,1684.0,1649.0,6842.0,2873.0,1685.0,1692.0,1811.0,1728.0,1433.0,2042.0,1781.0,1768.0,1597.0,1562.0,1398.0,1297.0,1384.0,1609.0,1723.0,1648.0,1356.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5410.0,5250.0,5150.0,5500.0,5200.0,4850.0,4640.0,4740.0,5100.0,5250.0,5200.0,4850.0,5300.0,5150.0,5050.0,5000.0,4900.0,4750.0,4550.0,4650.0,5000.0,5150.0,5100.0,4750.0,5190.0,5050.0,4950.0,4900.0,4800.0,4650.0,4460.0,4560.0,4900.0,5050.0,5000.0,4650.0,5140.0,5000.0,4900.0,7450.0,5450.0,5010.0,4410.0,4510.0,4850.0,5350.0,4950.0,4610.0,5350.0,5500.0,5100.0,5050.0,4950.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5300.0,5200.0,5150.0,4800.0,8450.0,5900.0,5000.0,4950.0,4850.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4950.0,5100.0,5050.0,5600.0,5390.0,4890.0,4800.0,4750.0,4650.0,5110.0,4570.0,4420.0,4750.0,4890.0,4850.0,4510.0,4930.0,4790.0,4700.0,4650.0,4560.0,4620.0,4230.0,4320.0,4650.0,4790.0,4740.0,4420.0,4820.0,4890.0,4600.0,4550.0,5160.0,6520.0,4640.0,4230.0,4550.0,4690.0,5040.0,4320.0,4610.0,4480.0,4390.0,4350.0,4260.0,4130.0,3960.0,4050.0,4700.0,4630.0,4440.0,4130.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[280.0,260.0,300.0,290.0,310.0,270.0,250.0,240.0,300.0,320.0,310.0,290.0,300.0,280.0,310.0,300.0,320.0,280.0,260.0,250.0,310.0,330.0,320.0,300.0,320.0,300.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,310.0,290.0,280.0,340.0,360.0,350.0,330.0,360.0,340.0,380.0,6500.0,2800.0,700.0,450.0,400.0,420.0,450.0,430.0,410.0,430.0,410.0,450.0,440.0,460.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,2200.0,1200.0,500.0,480.0,2400.0,900.0,550.0,520.0,540.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,550.0,530.0,520.0,1500.0,700.0,600.0,650.0,2000.0,900.0,1500.0,800.0,650.0,700.0,680.0,660.0,640.0,650.0,630.0,700.0,680.0,720.0,1200.0,800.0,700.0,750.0,730.0,710.0,690.0,720.0,1600.0,900.0,800.0,850.0,6000.0,2200.0,1000.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,800.0,750.0,820.0,800.0,850.0,780.0,760.0,740.0,800.0,820.0,810.0,790.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1026.0,979.0,998.0,1520.0,979.0,950.0,922.0,855.0,988.0,1469.0,969.0,808.0,1080.0,1030.0,1575.0,1000.0,1030.0,1000.0,970.0,900.0,1040.0,1030.0,1020.0,850.0,1145.0,1092.0,1113.0,1060.0,1092.0,1060.0,1028.0,1526.0,1102.0,1092.0,1081.0,901.0,1231.0,2583.0,1197.0,2736.0,1878.0,1140.0,1106.0,1026.0,1186.0,1174.0,1163.0,969.0,1210.0,1154.0,1176.0,1120.0,1154.0,1680.0,1086.0,1008.0,1165.0,1616.0,1142.0,952.0,1296.0,1236.0,2268.0,1200.0,1236.0,1200.0,1164.0,1080.0,1248.0,1236.0,1836.0,1020.0,1361.0,1298.0,1323.0,2016.0,1298.0,1260.0,1222.0,1134.0,1310.0,1947.0,1285.0,1071.0,1490.0,2416.0,1449.0,1380.0,1421.0,1380.0,4687.0,2484.0,2009.0,1421.0,1408.0,1173.0,1598.0,1524.0,2486.0,1480.0,1524.0,1480.0,1436.0,1332.0,1539.0,2591.0,1510.0,1258.0,1706.0,1627.0,1659.0,1580.0,4556.0,2686.0,1533.0,1422.0,1643.0,1627.0,1612.0,1343.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[850.0,950.0,990.0,2400.0,1600.0,1000.0,725.0,810.0,890.0,950.0,990.0,810.0,780.0,875.0,905.0,740.0,820.0,780.0,720.0,740.0,820.0,875.0,905.0,740.0,720.0,805.0,835.0,685.0,755.0,1500.0,960.0,685.0,755.0,805.0,835.0,685.0,650.0,730.0,755.0,620.0,2400.0,1300.0,900.0,620.0,1050.0,1650.0,1150.0,620.0,560.0,630.0,810.0,665.0,735.0,630.0,525.0,585.0,590.0,630.0,650.0,530.0,500.0,560.0,580.0,475.0,525.0,450.0,500.0,1200.0,525.0,560.0,580.0,475.0,460.0,515.0,535.0,435.0,485.0,415.0,390.0,435.0,485.0,515.0,535.0,435.0,430.0,480.0,500.0,410.0,450.0,390.0,365.0,410.0,700.0,1100.0,800.0,410.0,400.0,448.0,464.0,380.0,420.0,360.0,340.0,380.0,420.0,448.0,464.0,380.0,375.0,420.0,435.0,355.0,395.0,420.0,390.0,355.0,395.0,420.0,435.0,355.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[260.0,235.0,220.0,205.0,195.0,185.0,180.0,190.0,205.0,215.0,225.0,235.0,210.0,195.0,185.0,175.0,165.0,155.0,160.0,170.0,180.0,185.0,190.0,195.0,280.0,1650.0,1050.0,560.0,420.0,330.0,270.0,300.0,390.0,430.0,350.0,290.0,330.0,1250.0,880.0,510.0,390.0,300.0,250.0,270.0,320.0,360.0,310.0,270.0,240.0,270.0,250.0,220.0,205.0,215.0,230.0,220.0,210.0,200.0,230.0,300.0,210.0,220.0,200.0,185.0,175.0,180.0,185.0,190.0,205.0,215.0,220.0,260.0,190.0,200.0,185.0,170.0,160.0,155.0,160.0,170.0,180.0,190.0,200.0,215.0,250.0,420.0,330.0,260.0,220.0,205.0,195.0,205.0,220.0,235.0,220.0,250.0,280.0,500.0,380.0,300.0,255.0,235.0,225.0,235.0,255.0,270.0,260.0,290.0,235.0,250.0,225.0,200.0,185.0,175.0,180.0,190.0,200.0,210.0,205.0,220.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,3700.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,4300.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,6000.0,5200.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4200.0,4800.0,5400.0,4800.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,5200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4900.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4400.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4300.0,4300.0,4000.0,4300.0,5200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,5300.0,4400.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[22.0,106.0,31.0,28.0,27.0,35.0,24.0,26.0,38.0,27.0,24.0,21.0,21.0,98.0,27.0,33.0,30.0,42.0,25.0,28.0,34.0,26.0,23.0,20.0,24.0,121.0,32.0,29.0,58.0,36.0,27.0,31.0,36.0,28.0,25.0,22.0,25.0,148.0,34.0,30.0,40.0,68.0,33.0,35.0,82.0,30.0,27.0,24.0,26.0,136.0,38.0,31.0,83.0,122.0,61.0,35.0,41.0,30.0,27.0,25.0,28.0,127.0,54.0,33.0,37.0,45.0,62.0,34.0,46.0,31.0,29.0,26.0,30.0,155.0,42.0,35.0,93.0,52.0,38.0,36.0,57.0,84.0,32.0,28.0,36.0,587.0,215.0,142.0,238.0,147.0,96.0,73.0,64.0,72.0,41.0,33.0,34.0,163.0,89.0,57.0,49.0,44.0,38.0,36.0,43.0,51.0,35.0,30.0,33.0,152.0,76.0,52.0,45.0,40.0,37.0,35.0,42.0,48.0,34.0,31.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[115.0,108.0,123.0,117.0,132.0,126.0,119.0,111.0,124.0,139.0,128.0,121.0,122.0,135.0,128.0,141.0,153.0,144.0,136.0,130.0,148.0,159.0,210.0,175.0,170.0,190.0,180.0,175.0,185.0,176.0,168.0,164.0,180.0,205.0,194.0,183.0,190.0,205.0,198.0,720.0,390.0,280.0,245.0,260.0,310.0,360.0,295.0,270.0,310.0,1250.0,520.0,330.0,300.0,325.0,350.0,480.0,950.0,620.0,390.0,710.0,1050.0,510.0,350.0,310.0,295.0,330.0,340.0,315.0,360.0,380.0,420.0,590.0,390.0,340.0,360.0,610.0,430.0,720.0,410.0,350.0,330.0,365.0,390.0,345.0,320.0,340.0,325.0,350.0,365.0,345.0,330.0,315.0,340.0,380.0,355.0,330.0,350.0,375.0,360.0,390.0,420.0,1450.0,780.0,510.0,440.0,465.0,430.0,390.0,380.0,395.0,410.0,390.0,420.0,405.0,385.0,370.0,400.0,430.0,410.0,385.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[380.0,360.0,400.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,380.0,390.0,420.0,350.0,400.0,380.0,390.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,340.0,390.0,370.0,400.0,620.0,450.0,400.0,380.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,360.0,380.0,400.0,460.0,1600.0,1100.0,850.0,700.0,650.0,620.0,600.0,620.0,560.0,650.0,1400.0,900.0,750.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,650.0,1000.0,800.0,700.0,620.0,620.0,640.0,600.0,560.0,540.0,800.0,580.0,540.0,520.0,560.0,540.0,500.0,520.0,500.0,510.0,480.0,470.0,490.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,480.0,500.0,450.0,500.0,480.0,520.0,600.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,470.0,480.0,500.0,490.0,460.0,520.0,1000.0,750.0,620.0,600.0,2000.0,1300.0,800.0,650.0,600.0,580.0,540.0,560.0,520.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,460.0,470.0,450.0,430.0]}},{"title":"Jenny Saville","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Jenny Saville\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[6955,6645,6711,6900,6118,4788,3348,3323,5738,6497,6847,4758,6239,6796,6912,5106,5018,3861,2637,2671,5232,5555,6219,4320,5619,4877,6418,6157,5944,4866,3451,3673,4760,15914,5430,4621,4767,4494,5577,5263,4486,3539,2838,3160,4363,4856,4903,3729,5824,6399,4511,4727,4446,3456,3474,3430,4184,4905,5980,4460,4730,4200,5059,4647,4033,3131,2566,3497,4366,6969,4800,3688,5169,4196,4535,4011,3735,2507,2400,3519,6400,4648,4913,3253,4167,4083,4339,3815,4217,3369,4653,4934,4627,4601,5384,3474,5185,4369,4357,4156,4194,4712,3254,2773,3430,4556,4150,3490,4257,3861,6446,4101,5890,20477,11511,12927,9424,5953,5998,4500],"flat_reference_value":17073.738844923144,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[3800.0,3600.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,3700.0,3300.0,3200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4200.0,3600.0,4100.0,3900.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,4300.0,4700.0,4600.0,3900.0,4500.0,4300.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,5000.0,32000.0,11000.0,7000.0,6900.0,6200.0,6800.0,6300.0,6200.0,5600.0,5000.0,4900.0,6000.0,6600.0,6300.0,5200.0,5900.0,5700.0,6200.0,5900.0,6100.0,5600.0,5000.0,4800.0,6100.0,6700.0,6500.0,5400.0,6100.0,5900.0,6500.0,6200.0,6300.0,5800.0,5300.0,5200.0,8500.0,14000.0,10500.0,8500.0,9000.0,6900.0,7200.0,6700.0,6800.0,6100.0,5500.0,5300.0,6600.0,7300.0,7000.0,5800.0,6600.0,6300.0,7100.0,6700.0,6800.0,6200.0,5600.0,5400.0,6700.0,7400.0,7100.0,5900.0,6800.0,6500.0,7300.0,6900.0,7000.0,6400.0,5800.0,5600.0,6900.0,7600.0,7300.0,6100.0,7000.0,6700.0,7500.0,7200.0,7800.0,12500.0,14500.0,12500.0,11000.0,8500.0,7800.0,6500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[21420.0,22150.0,21680.0,19840.0,19110.0,15890.0,13420.0,13180.0,19750.0,23410.0,22890.0,17340.0,21860.0,22390.0,22940.0,19620.0,19450.0,16120.0,13680.0,13510.0,20180.0,23870.0,23150.0,17620.0,22410.0,22780.0,22530.0,20340.0,19890.0,16950.0,15820.0,16440.0,21560.0,72480.0,26930.0,19410.0,24120.0,24560.0,24890.0,21470.0,22830.0,17460.0,14920.0,14680.0,21840.0,25410.0,24380.0,18590.0,23450.0,23810.0,19640.0,18920.0,18750.0,15980.0,14210.0,13960.0,19830.0,22740.0,22190.0,17280.0,21360.0,21740.0,21520.0,19180.0,18640.0,15120.0,13190.0,13040.0,19450.0,22860.0,22140.0,16890.0,19870.0,19950.0,19610.0,17240.0,16820.0,13840.0,11960.0,11720.0,16930.0,19420.0,18760.0,14380.0,17120.0,16980.0,16840.0,14790.0,14350.0,11890.0,10340.0,10180.0,14620.0,16890.0,16410.0,12740.0,15280.0,15460.0,15190.0,13640.0,13280.0,11120.0,9780.0,9640.0,13850.0,15920.0,15480.0,12150.0,14680.0,14820.0,14950.0,13910.0,19640.0,26380.0,31240.0,27490.0,22160.0,18240.0,17190.0,13420.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[14200.0,13800.0,15400.0,14100.0,14500.0,13200.0,12500.0,12800.0,14600.0,16200.0,17100.0,13900.0,15100.0,14600.0,16800.0,15200.0,15500.0,13800.0,13200.0,13500.0,15300.0,16700.0,17400.0,14500.0,16200.0,15800.0,17500.0,16100.0,16800.0,14900.0,14200.0,14500.0,16800.0,104000.0,29500.0,18200.0,17800.0,16500.0,18900.0,17200.0,17500.0,15300.0,14700.0,15100.0,16900.0,18500.0,19100.0,15800.0,17200.0,16900.0,18400.0,21200.0,20500.0,17100.0,16200.0,16500.0,17800.0,19200.0,19800.0,16500.0,17500.0,16800.0,18600.0,17100.0,16900.0,15200.0,14800.0,15500.0,18200.0,24500.0,23100.0,18400.0,18200.0,17100.0,18500.0,16800.0,16200.0,14600.0,14100.0,14300.0,15800.0,17200.0,17500.0,14800.0,16100.0,15200.0,16900.0,15500.0,15100.0,13800.0,13200.0,13500.0,14900.0,16200.0,16500.0,13900.0,15200.0,14500.0,15900.0,14800.0,14400.0,13100.0,12600.0,12900.0,14200.0,15500.0,15800.0,13400.0,14800.0,14100.0,15400.0,14300.0,13900.0,12700.0,12200.0,12500.0,13800.0,15000.0,15300.0,13000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[12000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9500.0,11500.0,13500.0,13500.0,10500.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,11000.0,13000.0,13000.0,10000.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,11000.0,30000.0,16000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8500.0,10500.0,12000.0,12000.0,9500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,13500.0,13000.0,10500.0,9000.0,8500.0,10000.0,11500.0,11500.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9500.0,11000.0,11000.0,8500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9500.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,9000.0,10500.0,10500.0,8000.0,9000.0,9500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,9000.0,10500.0,10500.0,8000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,8500.0,10000.0,10000.0,8000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,19000.0,16000.0,14500.0,13000.0,11500.0,10500.0,8500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[23000.0,23500.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15500.0,20000.0,24000.0,25000.0,20000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,21000.0,21000.0,17500.0,15500.0,15000.0,19000.0,23000.0,24000.0,19000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,20000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15500.0,15000.0,19000.0,38000.0,25000.0,19000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,16000.0,14500.0,14000.0,17500.0,21000.0,21500.0,17000.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19000.0,19500.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,17000.0,20000.0,20500.0,17000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20500.0,18000.0,17500.0,15000.0,13500.0,13000.0,16000.0,19000.0,19000.0,15500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,14500.0,17000.0,17500.0,14000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,14000.0,16500.0,16500.0,13500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,14500.0,14500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,13500.0,16000.0,16000.0,13500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16500.0,15500.0,16500.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,15000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,4400.0,4600.0,9000.0,5000.0,4000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,4000.0,5100.0,5000.0,5200.0,4700.0,4900.0,5300.0,4400.0,4200.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,4500.0,5700.0,5900.0,6100.0,9200.0,7600.0,11500.0,8800.0,7100.0,6400.0,39000.0,9200.0,6100.0,6300.0,6200.0,6600.0,5900.0,6100.0,6600.0,5300.0,5100.0,6100.0,6300.0,6400.0,5100.0,7000.0,6600.0,7600.0,7200.0,6300.0,6600.0,5500.0,5300.0,8100.0,6800.0,6400.0,5600.0,6600.0,6500.0,6900.0,6300.0,6400.0,6900.0,5600.0,5400.0,6600.0,6700.0,6500.0,5700.0,7000.0,7000.0,7300.0,6600.0,6800.0,7300.0,5900.0,5700.0,6900.0,7100.0,6900.0,6100.0,7300.0,7300.0,7600.0,6900.0,7100.0,7600.0,6100.0,5900.0,7300.0,10800.0,9300.0,6900.0,7500.0,7500.0,7900.0,7200.0,7400.0,7800.0,6300.0,6100.0,7500.0,7700.0,7600.0,6500.0,7700.0,7700.0,8100.0,7400.0,7900.0,15500.0,23000.0,19000.0,12000.0,8000.0,7600.0,6900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[6120.0,5650.0,5730.0,5380.0,5210.0,4720.0,4080.0,4470.0,5520.0,5790.0,5390.0,4590.0,6710.0,6310.0,6350.0,6020.0,5840.0,5290.0,4560.0,4980.0,6150.0,6420.0,6010.0,5180.0,7130.0,6820.0,6700.0,6510.0,6200.0,5580.0,4960.0,5270.0,6510.0,28500.0,14200.0,5600.0,6790.0,6490.0,6370.0,6200.0,5900.0,5310.0,4720.0,5020.0,6200.0,6490.0,6200.0,5310.0,7820.0,7480.0,9180.0,9520.0,8580.0,6120.0,5440.0,5780.0,7140.0,7480.0,7140.0,6120.0,7020.0,6710.0,6590.0,6410.0,6100.0,5490.0,4880.0,5190.0,6410.0,6710.0,6410.0,5490.0,6440.0,6160.0,6050.0,5880.0,5600.0,5040.0,4480.0,4760.0,5880.0,6160.0,5880.0,5040.0,6560.0,6270.0,6160.0,5990.0,5700.0,5130.0,4560.0,4850.0,5990.0,6270.0,5990.0,5130.0,7120.0,6810.0,6680.0,6500.0,6210.0,5580.0,4970.0,5290.0,6510.0,6820.0,6500.0,5580.0,8630.0,8250.0,8100.0,7880.0,7500.0,14200.0,16800.0,15400.0,12800.0,9100.0,7880.0,6750.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[15800.0,16200.0,17000.0,16400.0,15900.0,14800.0,13600.0,13200.0,16500.0,18200.0,17600.0,15400.0,16800.0,17400.0,18300.0,17900.0,17200.0,15900.0,14500.0,14100.0,17800.0,19600.0,18900.0,16200.0,17600.0,18200.0,19400.0,18800.0,20500.0,18600.0,16300.0,15800.0,22600.0,132000.0,46000.0,24500.0,22300.0,21400.0,22800.0,21900.0,20600.0,19200.0,17500.0,17000.0,21300.0,24800.0,23100.0,19400.0,19800.0,20400.0,20900.0,19700.0,18900.0,18400.0,17600.0,17200.0,19900.0,21600.0,20700.0,18200.0,19100.0,19800.0,21600.0,20900.0,20200.0,18900.0,17600.0,17300.0,20800.0,23500.0,22400.0,19300.0,20100.0,20900.0,23200.0,22400.0,21100.0,19800.0,18300.0,17900.0,21600.0,25400.0,23800.0,20200.0,21300.0,22100.0,23900.0,22800.0,21600.0,20400.0,18900.0,18500.0,22300.0,27600.0,25100.0,21200.0,22000.0,22900.0,25300.0,24200.0,23100.0,21700.0,20100.0,19600.0,23400.0,28900.0,26300.0,22100.0,22800.0,23700.0,26100.0,25000.0,23800.0,22300.0,20700.0,20200.0,24100.0,29600.0,27000.0,22800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1900.0,1800.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,2200.0,2600.0,2400.0,1900.0,2200.0,2100.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2200.0,2600.0,2500.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,3200.0,70000.0,18000.0,8000.0,5500.0,4500.0,4800.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,3900.0,3800.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,3800.0,4200.0,4100.0,4700.0,5200.0,5500.0,5100.0,4600.0,4500.0,5200.0,5800.0,5500.0,4700.0,5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,5400.0,5900.0,5700.0,5200.0,5100.0,6000.0,6500.0,6200.0,5300.0,5800.0,5600.0,6300.0,6100.0,6800.0,7500.0,6600.0,6400.0,7200.0,8000.0,7700.0,6400.0,6300.0,6100.0,6800.0,6500.0,7200.0,6900.0,6300.0,6100.0,7000.0,7400.0,7200.0,6100.0,6600.0,6400.0,7200.0,6900.0,7600.0,7300.0,6700.0,6500.0,7400.0,7900.0,7600.0,6500.0,7100.0,6900.0,7800.0,7500.0,8300.0,16000.0,38000.0,32000.0,19000.0,10500.0,8800.0,7200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[6000.0,6400.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,6600.0,6500.0,6400.0,5300.0,6400.0,6800.0,7000.0,6700.0,6600.0,6000.0,5500.0,5700.0,7100.0,7000.0,6800.0,5700.0,6900.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7200.0,6500.0,5900.0,6100.0,7900.0,18800.0,10400.0,6000.0,7300.0,7800.0,8000.0,7700.0,7500.0,6900.0,6300.0,6500.0,8100.0,8000.0,7800.0,6400.0,7900.0,8400.0,9200.0,9000.0,8600.0,7400.0,6700.0,6900.0,13100.0,10800.0,8400.0,6900.0,8200.0,8700.0,9000.0,8600.0,8500.0,7700.0,7100.0,7300.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,7300.0,8600.0,9100.0,9500.0,9600.0,9300.0,8100.0,7500.0,7700.0,9600.0,9400.0,9200.0,7600.0,9100.0,11600.0,12100.0,11500.0,11000.0,8600.0,7900.0,8100.0,10100.0,9900.0,9700.0,8100.0,9600.0,10200.0,10500.0,10100.0,9900.0,9100.0,8300.0,8500.0,10700.0,11800.0,10900.0,8500.0,10100.0,10700.0,11000.0,10600.0,10400.0,9600.0,8700.0,8900.0,11100.0,10900.0,10700.0,8900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3675.0,3710.0,4375.0,3710.0,3500.0,3255.0,3010.0,2905.0,3675.0,3920.0,3780.0,3150.0,4095.0,4134.0,4875.0,4134.0,3900.0,3627.0,3354.0,3237.0,4095.0,4368.0,4212.0,3510.0,4620.0,4664.0,5500.0,4664.0,4400.0,4092.0,3784.0,3652.0,4900.0,21500.0,7400.0,3960.0,5355.0,5406.0,6375.0,5406.0,5100.0,4743.0,4386.0,4233.0,8800.0,7700.0,6300.0,4590.0,5775.0,5830.0,10000.0,8200.0,7200.0,6100.0,5000.0,4600.0,5800.0,6200.0,5900.0,5000.0,6195.0,6254.0,7375.0,6254.0,5900.0,5487.0,5074.0,4897.0,6195.0,9300.0,6400.0,5310.0,6510.0,6572.0,7750.0,6572.0,6200.0,5766.0,5332.0,5146.0,6510.0,6944.0,6696.0,5580.0,6930.0,6996.0,8250.0,6996.0,6600.0,6138.0,5676.0,5478.0,6930.0,7392.0,7128.0,5940.0,7350.0,7420.0,8750.0,7420.0,7000.0,6510.0,6020.0,5810.0,7350.0,7840.0,7560.0,6300.0,7875.0,7950.0,9375.0,7950.0,7500.0,6975.0,6450.0,6225.0,7875.0,8400.0,8100.0,6750.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[12000.0,11500.0,12200.0,12500.0,12700.0,12300.0,11800.0,12400.0,13000.0,13500.0,13800.0,13200.0,13500.0,13800.0,42000.0,22000.0,16000.0,15500.0,14800.0,15200.0,15800.0,16500.0,17000.0,16200.0,16500.0,16800.0,17500.0,17800.0,18200.0,17500.0,16800.0,26000.0,76000.0,105000.0,122000.0,104000.0,112000.0,68000.0,94000.0,88000.0,80000.0,75000.0,69000.0,73000.0,85000.0,52000.0,39000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,25000.0,27000.0,49000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,48000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,58000.0,49000.0,50000.0,52000.0,55000.0,72000.0,68000.0,70000.0,56000.0,48000.0,51000.0,53000.0,55000.0,50000.0,53000.0,57000.0,59000.0,62000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,55000.0,58000.0,60000.0,61000.0,56000.0,66000.0,102000.0,118000.0,108000.0,95000.0,105000.0,72000.0,66000.0,68000.0,70000.0,66000.0,60000.0,67000.0,72000.0,77000.0,81000.0,75000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[6200.0,6500.0,6800.0,6600.0,6400.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,6300.0,7000.0,6900.0,5600.0,6400.0,6700.0,7000.0,6700.0,6500.0,5700.0,5300.0,5400.0,6400.0,7100.0,7000.0,5700.0,6500.0,6800.0,7100.0,6800.0,6600.0,5900.0,5500.0,5600.0,6600.0,16500.0,10500.0,7200.0,7400.0,7600.0,7900.0,7600.0,7400.0,6500.0,6100.0,6200.0,7200.0,7900.0,7800.0,6400.0,7300.0,7500.0,7700.0,7600.0,7400.0,6800.0,6500.0,6400.0,7400.0,8000.0,7900.0,6700.0,7600.0,7900.0,8200.0,8000.0,7700.0,7000.0,6700.0,6700.0,7700.0,8400.0,8300.0,7000.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,8400.0,10200.0,8300.0,7300.0,7200.0,8100.0,8700.0,8500.0,7200.0,8200.0,8500.0,8800.0,8600.0,8400.0,7500.0,7200.0,7200.0,8300.0,9000.0,8800.0,7400.0,8500.0,8800.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,8000.0,7700.0,7800.0,9000.0,9800.0,9500.0,8000.0,9000.0,9300.0,9700.0,9500.0,9300.0,8500.0,8100.0,8200.0,9400.0,10200.0,9900.0,8300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2100.0,1700.0,1750.0,1600.0,1500.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1600.0,1450.0,1750.0,2300.0,2200.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,2600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1800.0,1600.0,2100.0,2500.0,2400.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,2300.0,2200.0,3600.0,3000.0,3300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3000.0,3300.0,3800.0,2800.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,3100.0,2900.0,3600.0,4100.0,4200.0,3600.0,4600.0,4000.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,3700.0,3500.0,4200.0,4700.0,4700.0,4100.0,4600.0,3800.0,4200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,4600.0,5900.0,5300.0,5700.0,6300.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,5200.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,5500.0,5000.0,6100.0,6700.0,7200.0,9500.0,7500.0,5600.0,5200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,6200.0,5700.0,6900.0,7500.0,8300.0,6500.0,7200.0,5900.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,6300.0,5800.0,7200.0,8000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[720.0,680.0,760.0,790.0,820.0,780.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,920.0,820.0,760.0,800.0,760.0,850.0,900.0,910.0,880.0,920.0,960.0,1010.0,1050.0,920.0,870.0,900.0,850.0,980.0,1050.0,1120.0,1100.0,1180.0,1250.0,1550.0,11800.0,5200.0,2600.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1950.0,1850.0,1750.0,1850.0,1950.0,2100.0,2350.0,1900.0,1650.0,1750.0,1800.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,2050.0,2100.0,1950.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2400.0,2600.0,2800.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,2050.0,1900.0,2100.0,2250.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2350.0,2500.0,2700.0,2850.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2450.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,3200.0,2800.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2900.0,3200.0,3800.0,6200.0,7500.0,6200.0,4500.0,3300.0,2900.0,2700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[683.0,683.0,715.0,683.0,650.0,618.0,553.0,553.0,683.0,800.0,683.0,585.0,630.0,630.0,660.0,630.0,600.0,570.0,510.0,510.0,630.0,660.0,630.0,540.0,735.0,735.0,770.0,735.0,700.0,665.0,595.0,595.0,735.0,1100.0,735.0,630.0,683.0,683.0,715.0,683.0,900.0,618.0,553.0,553.0,683.0,715.0,683.0,585.0,630.0,630.0,660.0,630.0,600.0,570.0,510.0,510.0,630.0,660.0,630.0,540.0,683.0,683.0,715.0,683.0,650.0,618.0,553.0,553.0,683.0,715.0,683.0,585.0,735.0,735.0,770.0,735.0,700.0,1000.0,595.0,595.0,735.0,770.0,735.0,630.0,683.0,683.0,715.0,683.0,650.0,618.0,553.0,553.0,683.0,715.0,683.0,585.0,630.0,630.0,660.0,630.0,600.0,570.0,510.0,510.0,630.0,660.0,630.0,540.0,750.0,578.0,605.0,578.0,550.0,523.0,468.0,468.0,578.0,605.0,578.0,495.0]}},{"title":"Division by zero","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Division by zero\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[36315,37362,36295,33722,28618,27692,23600,26257,38121,34926,34947,31199,31707,28759,28806,25915,26020,22848,22086,23242,31757,32809,30014,24517,27748,26802,29074,28253,27908,23889,22909,28381,34394,35282,32314,30472,31828,32237,33933,31358,28897,25191,26265,27851,32072,31366,31986,23960,25337,24186,23291,27245,24304,19988,22013,22399,27472,28872,23432,21867,21354,20176,21888,17205,17969,15931,16555,18565,21336,19538,18035,16663,16657,15292,17459,15565,17439,13154,14355,12865,18289,17421,17473,13036,14276,14021,14553,13522,14993,13228,12829,14226,16320,16857,22574,58813,24509,25967,21671,16917,17334,17434,15337,34980,20000,19493,17685,17697,15908,14143,18822,12904,18004,13388,11156,12309,12363,12621,12088,12248],"flat_reference_value":16941.108710889243,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[39500.0,40200.0,41700.0,40600.0,39100.0,32900.0,29200.0,31800.0,38400.0,43700.0,42100.0,34200.0,40900.0,39800.0,43800.0,41100.0,40500.0,34100.0,30100.0,32600.0,40300.0,45500.0,43800.0,35700.0,42100.0,40900.0,44700.0,42900.0,41600.0,35200.0,31200.0,33900.0,41400.0,46900.0,45100.0,36500.0,43800.0,41800.0,45600.0,44300.0,43100.0,36400.0,32500.0,34800.0,42500.0,48200.0,46000.0,37900.0,45200.0,43300.0,45800.0,47400.0,44700.0,36900.0,33200.0,35700.0,45100.0,49100.0,46800.0,39100.0,45600.0,44100.0,48300.0,45600.0,44000.0,37400.0,33100.0,36100.0,44200.0,49600.0,47100.0,38500.0,45200.0,42900.0,47100.0,44500.0,42900.0,35800.0,32100.0,35000.0,43300.0,48300.0,45800.0,37300.0,43800.0,41800.0,45700.0,43000.0,41400.0,34800.0,31000.0,33900.0,41800.0,46600.0,44200.0,36100.0,42400.0,40900.0,44200.0,42000.0,40100.0,33700.0,30100.0,32900.0,40400.0,45100.0,42800.0,34900.0,40800.0,38900.0,42700.0,40600.0,38500.0,32500.0,28900.0,31700.0,38900.0,43600.0,41200.0,33700.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[51840.0,50620.0,53410.0,51290.0,48950.0,41230.0,39180.0,41560.0,50420.0,54190.0,51870.0,45610.0,49230.0,48150.0,52840.0,50120.0,48390.0,40110.0,38240.0,40380.0,49560.0,53120.0,50940.0,44320.0,47890.0,46740.0,51260.0,49180.0,47050.0,39280.0,37490.0,39610.0,48320.0,51940.0,49410.0,43180.0,46950.0,45820.0,50430.0,48670.0,46590.0,38740.0,37120.0,39250.0,48190.0,51680.0,48920.0,42850.0,46710.0,45980.0,47340.0,50820.0,48910.0,41350.0,39420.0,41180.0,49640.0,52730.0,49850.0,44190.0,46820.0,45390.0,49150.0,47280.0,45120.0,37840.0,36190.0,38050.0,46230.0,49480.0,47160.0,41520.0,44630.0,43290.0,47180.0,45040.0,43190.0,36250.0,34680.0,36540.0,44390.0,47620.0,45180.0,39470.0,41850.0,40120.0,43690.0,41280.0,39450.0,33180.0,31640.0,33420.0,40510.0,43260.0,40890.0,35740.0,37920.0,36840.0,39750.0,37810.0,39640.0,33890.0,29450.0,30820.0,36940.0,39180.0,36750.0,32140.0,34280.0,33190.0,36120.0,34450.0,32890.0,27640.0,26380.0,27910.0,33840.0,35960.0,33720.0,29480.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[49200.0,54100.0,58300.0,55900.0,49800.0,38200.0,35400.0,40100.0,56800.0,62400.0,59700.0,45100.0,48700.0,52600.0,59400.0,54800.0,51200.0,37900.0,34800.0,39500.0,55300.0,61700.0,58400.0,44200.0,47900.0,51800.0,57600.0,53900.0,48700.0,36500.0,33900.0,38400.0,54200.0,59800.0,57100.0,43500.0,46800.0,50900.0,56200.0,52800.0,47600.0,35200.0,33100.0,37500.0,53100.0,58400.0,55900.0,42100.0,46200.0,49800.0,48100.0,53500.0,49200.0,36800.0,34600.0,39200.0,56100.0,61200.0,58900.0,43800.0,48300.0,51500.0,57400.0,54200.0,48900.0,36100.0,33800.0,38100.0,53900.0,59100.0,56400.0,42500.0,46500.0,49800.0,54900.0,51700.0,46300.0,34800.0,32100.0,36400.0,51800.0,56200.0,53400.0,40100.0,43200.0,46400.0,50800.0,47900.0,42700.0,32100.0,29800.0,33900.0,47200.0,51600.0,49100.0,37200.0,40800.0,44100.0,48200.0,45300.0,40900.0,30500.0,28400.0,32200.0,44900.0,48800.0,46500.0,35300.0,38900.0,42100.0,45800.0,43200.0,38700.0,29100.0,27200.0,30800.0,42900.0,46700.0,44300.0,33900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,54000.0,56000.0,55000.0,52000.0,58000.0,82000.0,60000.0,53000.0,54000.0,53000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,47000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,45000.0,49000.0,49000.0,41000.0,45000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,45000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,43000.0,46000.0,46000.0,39000.0,42000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,40000.0,43000.0,43000.0,37000.0,41000.0,42000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,37000.0,34000.0,34000.0,39000.0,42000.0,42000.0,36000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,35000.0,38000.0,38000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,32000.0,35000.0,35000.0,30000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,30000.0,32000.0,32000.0,28000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,26000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,26000.0,28000.0,28000.0,24000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[78000.0,76000.0,77000.0,72000.0,70000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,72000.0,75000.0,73000.0,65000.0,72000.0,70000.0,71000.0,65000.0,64000.0,56000.0,53000.0,55000.0,65000.0,68000.0,66000.0,59000.0,66000.0,63000.0,64000.0,60000.0,59000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,60000.0,63000.0,61000.0,54000.0,60000.0,57000.0,58000.0,55000.0,54000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,56000.0,58000.0,56000.0,50000.0,55000.0,53000.0,55000.0,58000.0,56000.0,49000.0,46000.0,46000.0,53000.0,55000.0,53000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,47000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,43000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,41000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,41000.0,41000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,38000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,37000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[32800.0,31500.0,33900.0,32700.0,35200.0,30200.0,29100.0,31300.0,39400.0,38100.0,34700.0,29800.0,34500.0,33800.0,36100.0,35200.0,37300.0,32100.0,30800.0,33200.0,45200.0,41400.0,37900.0,33400.0,38100.0,36900.0,39200.0,38300.0,40400.0,34300.0,33100.0,35600.0,46300.0,43200.0,39800.0,35100.0,39700.0,39100.0,41300.0,40200.0,42800.0,36200.0,34900.0,37400.0,47100.0,44900.0,42100.0,37200.0,41800.0,43100.0,45200.0,48700.0,47500.0,40400.0,39100.0,42600.0,52300.0,50100.0,46400.0,41200.0,44900.0,45800.0,46900.0,47100.0,49300.0,42100.0,40800.0,44200.0,54100.0,51400.0,48200.0,43100.0,46800.0,47900.0,48300.0,47200.0,50100.0,43400.0,42100.0,45300.0,55200.0,52300.0,49100.0,44200.0,49100.0,50800.0,52100.0,51200.0,53400.0,46100.0,44900.0,48300.0,59200.0,56100.0,53200.0,48300.0,51800.0,52900.0,54100.0,53400.0,56200.0,48900.0,47700.0,51200.0,62100.0,58900.0,55800.0,50700.0,53900.0,55100.0,56200.0,55300.0,58400.0,50800.0,49600.0,53100.0,64300.0,61100.0,57900.0,52800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[36800.0,38150.0,39200.0,36500.0,35700.0,28900.0,23800.0,27150.0,37400.0,39100.0,35600.0,25400.0,35900.0,36900.0,38100.0,35400.0,34500.0,27900.0,23000.0,26300.0,36200.0,37950.0,34600.0,24700.0,34900.0,35800.0,36900.0,34400.0,33500.0,27100.0,22300.0,25500.0,35150.0,36800.0,33500.0,23900.0,33800.0,34700.0,35700.0,33300.0,32400.0,26200.0,21600.0,24700.0,34000.0,35600.0,32450.0,23100.0,33600.0,34500.0,45200.0,48500.0,42100.0,26800.0,21900.0,24900.0,34200.0,35800.0,32700.0,23300.0,32800.0,33600.0,34500.0,32300.0,31400.0,25400.0,20900.0,23900.0,32900.0,34500.0,31400.0,22400.0,31700.0,32400.0,33300.0,31200.0,30300.0,24500.0,20200.0,23100.0,31800.0,33300.0,30350.0,21600.0,30600.0,31300.0,32200.0,30100.0,29300.0,23700.0,19500.0,22300.0,30700.0,32150.0,29300.0,20900.0,30000.0,30700.0,31600.0,29500.0,28700.0,23250.0,19150.0,21900.0,30150.0,31600.0,28750.0,20500.0,29500.0,30200.0,31050.0,29000.0,28200.0,22800.0,18800.0,21500.0,29600.0,31000.0,28250.0,20100.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[114482.0,109740.0,107315.0,104268.0,99872.0,93104.0,88951.0,96233.0,119467.0,124838.0,117205.0,111340.0,112915.0,106482.0,104207.0,101163.0,96948.0,91236.0,86712.0,93451.0,116328.0,121046.0,114205.0,108417.0,110536.0,104872.0,102615.0,99204.0,95338.0,89417.0,84926.0,91483.0,114205.0,118742.0,112316.0,106482.0,108417.0,102736.0,100482.0,97205.0,93615.0,87417.0,83205.0,89615.0,111205.0,115482.0,109417.0,103736.0,111205.0,107482.0,134205.0,131482.0,114205.0,98615.0,92417.0,95205.0,117482.0,121205.0,116417.0,108736.0,108205.0,102615.0,100482.0,96736.0,93205.0,86482.0,82615.0,88205.0,110482.0,114736.0,109205.0,102482.0,104205.0,99482.0,97615.0,93205.0,90482.0,83736.0,80205.0,85482.0,107205.0,111482.0,106736.0,99205.0,101482.0,97205.0,95615.0,91482.0,88205.0,81736.0,78482.0,84205.0,118736.0,110205.0,105482.0,98615.0,100205.0,96482.0,94205.0,90736.0,87482.0,81205.0,78482.0,83615.0,104205.0,108736.0,103482.0,96205.0,98482.0,94205.0,92736.0,88615.0,85482.0,79205.0,76736.0,81482.0,102205.0,106482.0,101736.0,94615.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[15200.0,15800.0,15400.0,14900.0,14100.0,12200.0,11300.0,13100.0,16100.0,15700.0,15100.0,13200.0,15800.0,16300.0,15900.0,15500.0,14600.0,12700.0,11900.0,13600.0,16600.0,16400.0,15500.0,13700.0,16500.0,16800.0,16600.0,16000.0,15200.0,13100.0,12300.0,14000.0,17100.0,16900.0,16000.0,14200.0,17000.0,17300.0,17100.0,16600.0,15700.0,13500.0,12700.0,14500.0,17700.0,17500.0,16600.0,14700.0,18600.0,19000.0,21600.0,22800.0,18900.0,14800.0,13900.0,15800.0,20800.0,19100.0,18200.0,16100.0,17500.0,17900.0,17700.0,17200.0,16200.0,13900.0,13100.0,14900.0,18200.0,18000.0,17100.0,15100.0,17000.0,17300.0,17100.0,16700.0,15700.0,13500.0,12700.0,14500.0,17700.0,17500.0,16600.0,14700.0,16500.0,16800.0,16600.0,16100.0,15200.0,13000.0,12300.0,14000.0,17100.0,16900.0,16100.0,14200.0,15900.0,16200.0,16000.0,15600.0,14700.0,12600.0,11900.0,13500.0,16500.0,16300.0,15600.0,13800.0,15400.0,15700.0,15500.0,15100.0,14200.0,12200.0,11500.0,13100.0,16000.0,15800.0,15100.0,13300.0],"meta/muse-ember":[36100.0,32700.0,35400.0,32600.0,34700.0,29100.0,26600.0,31000.0,44100.0,38000.0,35000.0,28800.0,33800.0,33500.0,33500.0,34200.0,32200.0,30100.0,24700.0,32100.0,43000.0,37800.0,33100.0,28900.0,33500.0,30900.0,34800.0,31500.0,32500.0,28300.0,25200.0,29900.0,42500.0,35900.0,33800.0,25900.0,31200.0,31800.0,32100.0,31500.0,32800.0,27200.0,23500.0,29900.0,39600.0,36600.0,31800.0,26400.0,35500.0,35100.0,43100.0,40400.0,37300.0,31300.0,27500.0,33300.0,50500.0,41700.0,37300.0,30300.0,36200.0,33100.0,35500.0,33100.0,34200.0,31300.0,25700.0,32100.0,47300.0,39700.0,35200.0,27800.0,33700.0,33000.0,33300.0,33700.0,32000.0,29400.0,25600.0,30100.0,42700.0,37200.0,34300.0,37800.0,41400.0,36600.0,36200.0,32200.0,32200.0,28300.0,24000.0,30500.0,42100.0,36700.0,32800.0,27000.0,29400.0,27600.0,29900.0,27700.0,28500.0,24600.0,21900.0,26200.0,37300.0,31800.0,29400.0,23400.0,25700.0,25500.0,25700.0,25500.0,24700.0,22700.0,19200.0,24200.0,33700.0,28500.0,26500.0,21600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[20800.0,21800.0,23200.0,21600.0,20800.0,16400.0,14000.0,15200.0,22400.0,23000.0,21800.0,16800.0,21840.0,22890.0,24360.0,22680.0,21840.0,17220.0,14700.0,15960.0,23520.0,24150.0,22890.0,17640.0,23400.0,24525.0,26100.0,24300.0,23400.0,18450.0,15750.0,17100.0,25200.0,25875.0,24525.0,18900.0,25480.0,26705.0,28420.0,26460.0,25480.0,20090.0,17150.0,18620.0,27440.0,28175.0,26705.0,20580.0,28080.0,29430.0,39150.0,45200.0,32290.0,22140.0,18900.0,20520.0,30240.0,31050.0,29430.0,22680.0,29640.0,31065.0,33060.0,30780.0,29640.0,23370.0,19950.0,21660.0,31920.0,32775.0,31065.0,23940.0,28600.0,29975.0,31900.0,29700.0,28600.0,22550.0,19250.0,20900.0,30800.0,31625.0,29975.0,31190.0,40560.0,37610.0,34800.0,32400.0,31200.0,24600.0,21000.0,22800.0,33600.0,34500.0,32700.0,25200.0,32760.0,34335.0,36540.0,34020.0,32760.0,25830.0,22050.0,23940.0,35280.0,36225.0,34335.0,26460.0,33800.0,35425.0,37700.0,35100.0,33800.0,26650.0,22750.0,24700.0,36400.0,37375.0,35425.0,27300.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[95200.0,91400.0,98700.0,101300.0,98900.0,91600.0,82800.0,85400.0,99600.0,102700.0,95300.0,85600.0,99600.0,95700.0,103200.0,105800.0,103300.0,95800.0,86600.0,89300.0,104100.0,107200.0,99800.0,89600.0,104300.0,100100.0,108000.0,110700.0,108100.0,100500.0,90900.0,93700.0,109100.0,112400.0,104700.0,94000.0,109200.0,104900.0,113100.0,115900.0,113200.0,105300.0,95300.0,98200.0,113800.0,117300.0,109300.0,98100.0,112600.0,108700.0,120300.0,134500.0,138200.0,131400.0,119800.0,126700.0,140800.0,144600.0,137900.0,127300.0,139800.0,134600.0,141900.0,146100.0,143400.0,136200.0,124100.0,131500.0,146700.0,151000.0,143900.0,132500.0,134900.0,129600.0,137200.0,141300.0,138500.0,131300.0,119700.0,126900.0,141600.0,145800.0,138800.0,127700.0,129600.0,124400.0,132100.0,136000.0,133300.0,126200.0,115000.0,121800.0,136100.0,140200.0,133300.0,122400.0,125700.0,120300.0,128300.0,132100.0,129300.0,122100.0,113000.0,118000.0,132000.0,136100.0,129200.0,118500.0,123400.0,118200.0,126000.0,129800.0,127000.0,119800.0,109000.0,115500.0,129200.0,133300.0,126400.0,116000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[5200.0,5500.0,5600.0,5300.0,5400.0,4200.0,3800.0,4100.0,5300.0,5600.0,5500.0,4300.0,5400.0,5700.0,5800.0,5400.0,5500.0,4300.0,3900.0,4200.0,5400.0,5800.0,5700.0,4400.0,5600.0,5900.0,6000.0,5600.0,5700.0,4400.0,4000.0,4300.0,5600.0,6000.0,5900.0,4500.0,5700.0,6000.0,6100.0,5700.0,5800.0,4500.0,4100.0,4400.0,5700.0,6100.0,6000.0,4600.0,5800.0,6100.0,6200.0,6400.0,6200.0,5000.0,4500.0,4800.0,6000.0,6400.0,6300.0,5000.0,6100.0,6400.0,6500.0,6200.0,6100.0,4800.0,4400.0,4700.0,6000.0,6400.0,6300.0,4900.0,6000.0,6300.0,6400.0,6000.0,6000.0,4700.0,4300.0,4600.0,5900.0,6300.0,6200.0,4800.0,6000.0,6400.0,6500.0,6100.0,6100.0,4700.0,4300.0,4700.0,6000.0,6400.0,6300.0,4800.0,5900.0,6200.0,6300.0,6000.0,5900.0,4600.0,4200.0,4500.0,5800.0,6200.0,6100.0,4700.0,5800.0,6100.0,6200.0,5800.0,5700.0,4400.0,4000.0,4400.0,5600.0,6000.0,5900.0,4500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[275000.0,220000.0,231000.0,216000.0,209000.0,242000.0,165000.0,187000.0,286000.0,231000.0,202000.0,172000.0,300000.0,240000.0,252000.0,235000.0,228000.0,264000.0,180000.0,204000.0,312000.0,252000.0,221000.0,187000.0,319000.0,255000.0,268000.0,250000.0,242000.0,281000.0,191000.0,217000.0,332000.0,268000.0,235000.0,199000.0,344000.0,275000.0,289000.0,270000.0,261000.0,303000.0,206000.0,234000.0,358000.0,289000.0,253000.0,215000.0,385000.0,270000.0,400000.0,345000.0,255000.0,310000.0,205000.0,225000.0,500000.0,275000.0,236000.0,194000.0,349000.0,255000.0,268000.0,250000.0,242000.0,261000.0,191000.0,217000.0,352000.0,258000.0,215000.0,199000.0,300000.0,240000.0,252000.0,235000.0,228000.0,264000.0,180000.0,204000.0,312000.0,252000.0,221000.0,187000.0,333000.0,230000.0,263000.0,245000.0,238000.0,275000.0,188000.0,213000.0,350000.0,238000.0,230000.0,195000.0,361000.0,255000.0,268000.0,260000.0,242000.0,292000.0,189000.0,225000.0,370000.0,278000.0,234000.0,206000.0,370000.0,270000.0,294000.0,275000.0,256000.0,309000.0,210000.0,238000.0,384000.0,284000.0,259000.0,212000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[19400.0,18100.0,20500.0,19800.0,20700.0,19800.0,19000.0,20200.0,21900.0,21300.0,20800.0,18400.0,18700.0,17900.0,20000.0,19400.0,20500.0,19700.0,19000.0,20100.0,21800.0,21100.0,20700.0,18200.0,18800.0,18000.0,20100.0,19500.0,20900.0,20000.0,19300.0,20500.0,22300.0,21500.0,20900.0,18400.0,19100.0,18400.0,20600.0,19900.0,21200.0,20400.0,19600.0,20900.0,22700.0,21900.0,21400.0,18800.0,19400.0,19000.0,22400.0,24600.0,23700.0,22200.0,21200.0,22100.0,23900.0,23200.0,22500.0,20100.0,21000.0,19900.0,21800.0,21100.0,21900.0,21000.0,20200.0,21200.0,22800.0,22000.0,21500.0,19300.0,20400.0,19400.0,21100.0,20200.0,21000.0,20100.0,19400.0,20200.0,21700.0,21100.0,20500.0,18500.0,19500.0,18600.0,20100.0,19400.0,20200.0,19400.0,18700.0,19500.0,20900.0,20300.0,19800.0,17800.0,18700.0,17900.0,19400.0,18800.0,19600.0,18800.0,18100.0,18900.0,20200.0,19600.0,19100.0,17200.0,18100.0,17400.0,18800.0,18200.0,19000.0,18200.0,17600.0,18300.0,19600.0,19000.0,18500.0,16700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[121.0,124.0,124.0,117.0,115.0,98.0,90.0,98.0,126.0,129.0,121.0,101.0,116.0,119.0,119.0,112.0,110.0,94.0,86.0,94.0,121.0,123.0,116.0,97.0,110.0,113.0,113.0,107.0,105.0,89.0,82.0,89.0,116.0,118.0,110.0,92.0,105.0,108.0,108.0,102.0,100.0,85.0,78.0,85.0,110.0,112.0,105.0,88.0,110.0,113.0,123.0,117.0,110.0,92.0,84.0,93.0,121.0,123.0,112.0,93.0,100.0,103.0,103.0,97.0,95.0,81.0,74.0,81.0,104.0,106.0,100.0,84.0,92.0,95.0,95.0,90.0,88.0,75.0,69.0,75.0,97.0,99.0,92.0,77.0,84.0,86.0,86.0,82.0,80.0,68.0,62.0,68.0,88.0,90.0,84.0,70.0,71.0,73.0,73.0,69.0,68.0,58.0,53.0,58.0,75.0,76.0,71.0,60.0,61.0,63.0,63.0,59.0,58.0,49.0,45.0,49.0,64.0,65.0,61.0,51.0]}},{"title":"Dominick Cruz","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Dominick Cruz\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[393108,44759,95903,95847,78337,150148,60179,68773,67542,68245,80635,358936,115528,62173,56947,62061,39998,38814,53928,38676,53953,55258,86943,31439,41807,32486,29807,38707,28303,29828,50753,128518,24503,49397,26310,43247,60954,32939,41143,35238,19742,36939,52381,36100,44664,28594,29169,34736,52158,35318,46305,111224,350783,67474,46563,44224,25109,33704,35959,49223,40592,78573,200503,52078,63735,29393,82393,44696,26569,37637,34542,177969,37289,20265,33658,40907,36059,44370,48275,225984,28485,37512,19125,21906,29754,30674,62773,32132,46410,17661,22714,41997,22442,17938,20162,26230,25868,26553,33106,23239,16944,17324,17233,22156,22370,15035,23751,22219,41742,53356,17762,12233,14592,26312,19783,16414,20728,16734,23754,21963],"flat_reference_value":16887.297651323966,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[185000.0,42000.0,30000.0,26000.0,32000.0,120000.0,38000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26000.0,35000.0,115000.0,130000.0,39000.0,28000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,20000.0,24000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,16000.0,18000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,40000.0,195000.0,41000.0,25000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,26000.0,85000.0,30000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,27000.0,95000.0,35000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,31000.0,150000.0,40000.0,26000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,25000.0,85000.0,29000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[290000.0,64000.0,48000.0,46000.0,72000.0,225000.0,58000.0,45000.0,41000.0,44000.0,62000.0,340000.0,145000.0,46000.0,42000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,41000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,54000.0,39000.0,36000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,33000.0,43000.0,31000.0,34000.0,30000.0,41000.0,39000.0,29000.0,31000.0,27000.0,28000.0,34000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,56000.0,355000.0,46000.0,37000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,27000.0,31000.0,32000.0,43000.0,155000.0,36000.0,30000.0,29000.0,38000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,34000.0,165000.0,42000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,27000.0,28000.0,37000.0,230000.0,41000.0,35000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,32000.0,22000.0,23000.0,30000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,26000.0,25000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,25000.0,19000.0,21000.0,23000.0,29000.0,78000.0,24000.0,19000.0,18000.0,23000.0,21000.0,18000.0,17000.0,20000.0,17000.0,19000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[340000.0,85000.0,52000.0,46000.0,68000.0,220000.0,62000.0,48000.0,41000.0,44000.0,58000.0,410000.0,175000.0,56000.0,44000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,39000.0,46000.0,37000.0,36000.0,32000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,38000.0,32000.0,36000.0,34000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,28000.0,27000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,25000.0,52000.0,260000.0,58000.0,36000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,135000.0,46000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,38000.0,140000.0,48000.0,33000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,42000.0,180000.0,48000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0,28000.0,25000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26000.0,28000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,24000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[160000.0,45000.0,30000.0,28000.0,45000.0,130000.0,40000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,50000.0,190000.0,85000.0,32000.0,25000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,16000.0,18000.0,17000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,35000.0,110000.0,25000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,18000.0,55000.0,16000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,18000.0,50000.0,17000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,13000.0,12000.0,20000.0,75000.0,18000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9500.0,10000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,11000.0,28000.0,11000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[480000.0,110000.0,90000.0,75000.0,85000.0,260000.0,100000.0,85000.0,70000.0,70000.0,90000.0,330000.0,210000.0,75000.0,65000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,65000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,80000.0,70000.0,58000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,52000.0,55000.0,48000.0,55000.0,45000.0,55000.0,55000.0,45000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,90000.0,380000.0,70000.0,65000.0,55000.0,50000.0,50000.0,42000.0,45000.0,50000.0,55000.0,190000.0,55000.0,48000.0,48000.0,55000.0,45000.0,45000.0,48000.0,55000.0,210000.0,60000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,45000.0,48000.0,60000.0,290000.0,55000.0,50000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,38000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,40000.0,85000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,38000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[92000.0,16000.0,11000.0,10000.0,13000.0,78000.0,15000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,16000.0,145000.0,22000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,8000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,6000.0,5500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,7000.0,9000.0,18000.0,65000.0,13000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,12000.0,12000.0,9000.0,16000.0,48000.0,12000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9000.0,16000.0,55000.0,15000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,13000.0,62000.0,17000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[285000.0,45000.0,28000.0,22000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,24000.0,26000.0,35000.0,135000.0,95000.0,30000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,11000.0,15000.0,18000.0,22000.0,20000.0,25000.0,310000.0,60000.0,25000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,25000.0,145000.0,40000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,22000.0,185000.0,40000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,15000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15000.0,18000.0,35000.0,22000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[45200.0,12800.0,6200.0,5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,46000.0,11500.0,6400.0,5600.0,5900.0,71000.0,33500.0,10200.0,7000.0,6000.0,5800.0,5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5700.0,8900.0,6100.0,7300.0,6400.0,5800.0,5600.0,5700.0,5400.0,5500.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,5900.0,6300.0,6900.0,11600.0,7800.0,10400.0,7600.0,7200.0,7400.0,7900.0,7600.0,7300.0,7700.0,8300.0,8100.0,7700.0,8300.0,11200.0,14600.0,72500.0,19800.0,10900.0,9200.0,8800.0,8500.0,8700.0,9100.0,8900.0,8700.0,32600.0,12300.0,9700.0,9300.0,9500.0,9200.0,9100.0,9300.0,9900.0,28400.0,11400.0,9300.0,8900.0,8700.0,9100.0,9300.0,10600.0,41500.0,13400.0,9300.0,8900.0,9100.0,8700.0,8300.0,8500.0,8100.0,8300.0,8500.0,8700.0,8300.0,7900.0,7900.0,7800.0,8100.0,7700.0,7300.0,7500.0,7300.0,7500.0,7700.0,7900.0,7500.0,7300.0,7100.0,7300.0,7500.0,6700.0,6300.0,6500.0,6300.0,6100.0,6300.0,6100.0,5900.0,5900.0,6100.0,5900.0,5700.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[280000.0,75000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,220000.0,80000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,42000.0,190000.0,110000.0,45000.0,30000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,26000.0,210000.0,55000.0,25000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,20000.0,22000.0,270000.0,60000.0,30000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,130000.0,45000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,20000.0,190000.0,50000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,15000.0,60000.0,110000.0,50000.0,20000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26500.0,33000.0,58000.0,30500.0,28000.0,27000.0,31000.0,35000.0,62000.0,82000.0,27000.0,23000.0,21000.0,26000.0,24000.0,22000.0,34000.0,37000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,18500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,17500.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10500.0,13500.0,14500.0,16500.0,23000.0,27000.0,96000.0,28500.0,18500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17500.0,19500.0,44000.0,27000.0,21000.0,19500.0,18500.0,21500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,20500.0,22000.0,25000.0,58000.0,31000.0,24000.0,20000.0,18500.0,19000.0,21000.0,24000.0,53000.0,21500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16500.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,17500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11500.0,13500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12500.0,21000.0,29000.0,92000.0,29000.0,16500.0,14500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[45000.0,10200.0,9800.0,10500.0,13500.0,10800.0,150000.0,18500.0,12000.0,10600.0,10300.0,125000.0,8500.0,7200.0,7500.0,7000.0,7300.0,7100.0,7400.0,8200.0,7000.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,7000.0,6600.0,6800.0,6500.0,6700.0,6900.0,7800.0,6800.0,6600.0,6700.0,6500.0,6800.0,8200.0,7900.0,8100.0,7800.0,8000.0,8300.0,7900.0,8100.0,8000.0,8400.0,8200.0,9500.0,9200.0,11000.0,12500.0,21000.0,200000.0,17000.0,10500.0,9800.0,9500.0,9300.0,9000.0,9200.0,8400.0,8200.0,8500.0,8300.0,11500.0,9800.0,14000.0,9000.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,12000.0,48000.0,14000.0,9500.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,8900.0,9100.0,9000.0,13000.0,44000.0,12500.0,9300.0,9000.0,8800.0,8700.0,8900.0,8600.0,8800.0,9000.0,14500.0,10500.0,90000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9700.0,9500.0,9300.0,9100.0,17000.0,10500.0,9800.0,9600.0,15000.0,115000.0,7500.0,10500.0,8000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,7800.0,6200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5000.0,4600.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[32000.0,74000.0,38000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,17000.0,24000.0,58000.0,42000.0,28000.0,82000.0,48000.0,32000.0,30000.0,92000.0,54000.0,34000.0,25000.0,26000.0,21000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,18000.0,28000.0,78000.0,43000.0,30000.0,23000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,15000.0,17000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,11000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,16000.0,14000.0,15000.0,17000.0,24000.0,38000.0,82000.0,48000.0,32000.0,23000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,16000.0,26000.0,34000.0,18000.0,16000.0,48000.0,25000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[42000.0,30000.0,26000.0,25000.0,30000.0,70000.0,42000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,22000.0,18000.0,20000.0,38000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,20000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,14000.0,22000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,18000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2800.0,6500.0,11000.0,6500.0,9500.0,62000.0,17000.0,5500.0,6500.0,12500.0,16000.0,48000.0,18000.0,8500.0,14000.0,58000.0,15000.0,5500.0,4500.0,4000.0,5500.0,9500.0,5500.0,4500.0,4500.0,9500.0,31000.0,8500.0,5000.0,4000.0,3500.0,3800.0,4200.0,5500.0,4500.0,4000.0,4200.0,5500.0,8000.0,5500.0,4500.0,7500.0,16000.0,9500.0,6000.0,7000.0,14000.0,38000.0,9500.0,13000.0,18000.0,55000.0,17000.0,7500.0,5500.0,4500.0,6500.0,9500.0,5500.0,13000.0,45000.0,15000.0,8000.0,5500.0,4500.0,7000.0,26000.0,8500.0,5500.0,6000.0,4500.0,4000.0,5500.0,9500.0,30000.0,10000.0,5500.0,4500.0,7000.0,24000.0,9500.0,5000.0,4200.0,11000.0,13000.0,7500.0,5000.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,6500.0,5000.0,4200.0,5000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4200.0,3600.0,4800.0,3800.0,4000.0,4600.0,4300.0,3900.0,4200.0,4800.0,4400.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,4300.0,3700.0,4000.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,4200.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[42000.0,11000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,26000.0,6500.0,4000.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,3200.0,17000.0,5000.0,3000.0,2800.0,4000.0,28000.0,6500.0,3500.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2800.0,5000.0,18000.0,6000.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,3500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2500.0,15000.0,4500.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,1600.0,1200.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,950.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,750.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,800.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,800.0,750.0,800.0,800.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,750.0,700.0,750.0,700.0,750.0,750.0,800.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,700.0]}},{"title":"Paul Pogba","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Paul Pogba\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[141588,118125,132203,105905,116747,435396,1029558,1042375,282910,247970,203259,222570,233677,284778,176758,149972,329921,164327,178032,220394,121344,96400,144763,151824,168439,138852,155224,184814,164513,445937,1232272,237796,166031,141949,119314,246209,228348,245021,171733,188514,159339,182874,154652,179280,95185,97242,88493,140578,118893,98411,118372,142293,94796,135888,190503,145582,110346,205451,123316,169966,191908,85701,117698,149401,170789,485600,224270,217133,180925,161728,105894,84890,109688,113989,131406,136174,148926,326963,258052,212465,167237,138095,215037,423887,157009,140935,133689,90582,138225,106949,134885,115977,207254,137190,103581,118159,116525,246832,192997,92600,103675,212525,238863,104994,107155,237241,176162,126164,111422,109724,178418,156418,96671,300297,198699,115701,124880,117995,145918,86930],"flat_reference_value":16767.018569023836,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[260000.0,245000.0,280000.0,290000.0,330000.0,750000.0,1400000.0,2200000.0,750000.0,550000.0,480000.0,450000.0,500000.0,430000.0,420000.0,390000.0,470000.0,390000.0,370000.0,460000.0,510000.0,420000.0,400000.0,410000.0,450000.0,470000.0,440000.0,420000.0,450000.0,850000.0,2400000.0,800000.0,590000.0,470000.0,420000.0,470000.0,520000.0,490000.0,470000.0,450000.0,430000.0,490000.0,500000.0,530000.0,440000.0,390000.0,350000.0,370000.0,370000.0,320000.0,300000.0,270000.0,280000.0,420000.0,380000.0,340000.0,350000.0,360000.0,340000.0,360000.0,410000.0,370000.0,340000.0,350000.0,390000.0,690000.0,540000.0,480000.0,390000.0,370000.0,350000.0,320000.0,340000.0,330000.0,320000.0,340000.0,370000.0,480000.0,650000.0,450000.0,560000.0,340000.0,390000.0,410000.0,300000.0,310000.0,320000.0,270000.0,300000.0,250000.0,240000.0,270000.0,700000.0,410000.0,270000.0,250000.0,240000.0,620000.0,450000.0,260000.0,240000.0,250000.0,270000.0,230000.0,240000.0,620000.0,390000.0,280000.0,260000.0,250000.0,390000.0,290000.0,280000.0,570000.0,480000.0,400000.0,330000.0,300000.0,280000.0,260000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[145000.0,155000.0,165000.0,150000.0,185000.0,520000.0,980000.0,1650000.0,540000.0,380000.0,270000.0,290000.0,310000.0,280000.0,240000.0,230000.0,350000.0,220000.0,240000.0,290000.0,250000.0,185000.0,235000.0,260000.0,245000.0,255000.0,225000.0,310000.0,240000.0,640000.0,1350000.0,420000.0,340000.0,245000.0,225000.0,390000.0,360000.0,320000.0,250000.0,265000.0,230000.0,310000.0,330000.0,295000.0,195000.0,165000.0,150000.0,190000.0,185000.0,155000.0,135000.0,120000.0,125000.0,215000.0,235000.0,190000.0,165000.0,185000.0,175000.0,230000.0,240000.0,175000.0,165000.0,195000.0,225000.0,560000.0,280000.0,380000.0,230000.0,245000.0,165000.0,145000.0,150000.0,165000.0,160000.0,175000.0,165000.0,290000.0,360000.0,325000.0,195000.0,145000.0,285000.0,330000.0,125000.0,135000.0,115000.0,105000.0,130000.0,95000.0,105000.0,115000.0,460000.0,230000.0,105000.0,95000.0,85000.0,210000.0,430000.0,110000.0,85000.0,140000.0,145000.0,90000.0,85000.0,440000.0,270000.0,165000.0,135000.0,115000.0,210000.0,105000.0,95000.0,390000.0,310000.0,155000.0,125000.0,135000.0,225000.0,145000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[220000.0,210000.0,235000.0,260000.0,350000.0,850000.0,1420000.0,2650000.0,860000.0,610000.0,480000.0,450000.0,420000.0,380000.0,350000.0,360000.0,550000.0,320000.0,350000.0,420000.0,380000.0,310000.0,390000.0,410000.0,420000.0,400000.0,360000.0,480000.0,410000.0,1120000.0,2850000.0,720000.0,550000.0,480000.0,420000.0,680000.0,520000.0,480000.0,420000.0,380000.0,350000.0,450000.0,420000.0,490000.0,360000.0,290000.0,260000.0,320000.0,290000.0,260000.0,180000.0,160000.0,190000.0,320000.0,380000.0,310000.0,250000.0,270000.0,260000.0,310000.0,340000.0,290000.0,280000.0,290000.0,350000.0,820000.0,480000.0,520000.0,360000.0,310000.0,260000.0,240000.0,230000.0,260000.0,240000.0,280000.0,320000.0,410000.0,780000.0,450000.0,680000.0,290000.0,280000.0,320000.0,220000.0,260000.0,250000.0,210000.0,240000.0,180000.0,170000.0,220000.0,980000.0,420000.0,210000.0,240000.0,200000.0,750000.0,310000.0,180000.0,160000.0,190000.0,170000.0,150000.0,160000.0,820000.0,420000.0,210000.0,200000.0,220000.0,450000.0,280000.0,220000.0,210000.0,230000.0,260000.0,220000.0,190000.0,170000.0,160000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[160000.0,150000.0,180000.0,170000.0,230000.0,450000.0,650000.0,1300000.0,480000.0,380000.0,340000.0,330000.0,320000.0,300000.0,290000.0,280000.0,310000.0,260000.0,280000.0,330000.0,300000.0,270000.0,260000.0,270000.0,280000.0,290000.0,300000.0,280000.0,300000.0,600000.0,1150000.0,420000.0,360000.0,300000.0,270000.0,300000.0,290000.0,260000.0,250000.0,250000.0,240000.0,300000.0,320000.0,330000.0,230000.0,210000.0,190000.0,200000.0,190000.0,170000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,170000.0,170000.0,160000.0,170000.0,190000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,160000.0,320000.0,240000.0,220000.0,200000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,140000.0,160000.0,200000.0,300000.0,330000.0,350000.0,220000.0,240000.0,200000.0,150000.0,140000.0,130000.0,120000.0,120000.0,120000.0,120000.0,130000.0,330000.0,200000.0,150000.0,130000.0,120000.0,340000.0,220000.0,150000.0,130000.0,140000.0,130000.0,130000.0,130000.0,250000.0,160000.0,140000.0,130000.0,120000.0,180000.0,130000.0,130000.0,250000.0,170000.0,140000.0,140000.0,120000.0,150000.0,110000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[350000.0,330000.0,350000.0,330000.0,350000.0,700000.0,1300000.0,1500000.0,700000.0,600000.0,500000.0,500000.0,500000.0,480000.0,450000.0,420000.0,480000.0,350000.0,350000.0,420000.0,400000.0,350000.0,350000.0,380000.0,420000.0,450000.0,420000.0,450000.0,380000.0,800000.0,1600000.0,550000.0,500000.0,450000.0,400000.0,500000.0,420000.0,380000.0,380000.0,360000.0,300000.0,300000.0,300000.0,330000.0,270000.0,230000.0,210000.0,220000.0,200000.0,180000.0,170000.0,170000.0,180000.0,220000.0,200000.0,200000.0,190000.0,220000.0,220000.0,220000.0,230000.0,220000.0,200000.0,220000.0,220000.0,500000.0,400000.0,330000.0,260000.0,240000.0,220000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,190000.0,190000.0,180000.0,220000.0,260000.0,330000.0,300000.0,220000.0,250000.0,280000.0,180000.0,150000.0,140000.0,130000.0,130000.0,130000.0,120000.0,130000.0,330000.0,180000.0,130000.0,130000.0,130000.0,300000.0,200000.0,130000.0,120000.0,130000.0,130000.0,100000.0,100000.0,250000.0,170000.0,130000.0,130000.0,110000.0,130000.0,110000.0,110000.0,180000.0,170000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,120000.0,110000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[280000.0,240000.0,210000.0,200000.0,230000.0,480000.0,900000.0,2050000.0,620000.0,400000.0,340000.0,300000.0,330000.0,300000.0,270000.0,290000.0,340000.0,210000.0,260000.0,340000.0,300000.0,260000.0,240000.0,270000.0,320000.0,260000.0,240000.0,230000.0,300000.0,750000.0,2250000.0,700000.0,460000.0,360000.0,330000.0,430000.0,400000.0,320000.0,300000.0,280000.0,260000.0,190000.0,360000.0,400000.0,290000.0,250000.0,230000.0,210000.0,210000.0,220000.0,260000.0,200000.0,230000.0,260000.0,300000.0,260000.0,310000.0,260000.0,220000.0,200000.0,230000.0,210000.0,190000.0,190000.0,240000.0,470000.0,520000.0,400000.0,300000.0,260000.0,240000.0,230000.0,300000.0,240000.0,210000.0,230000.0,310000.0,400000.0,560000.0,430000.0,320000.0,270000.0,360000.0,280000.0,300000.0,250000.0,220000.0,260000.0,300000.0,210000.0,200000.0,280000.0,1900000.0,620000.0,360000.0,270000.0,320000.0,850000.0,380000.0,310000.0,240000.0,230000.0,240000.0,340000.0,380000.0,780000.0,420000.0,330000.0,380000.0,420000.0,480000.0,330000.0,340000.0,820000.0,650000.0,520000.0,430000.0,340000.0,300000.0,280000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[118400.0,109200.0,132500.0,148700.0,182300.0,452000.0,648000.0,1215000.0,592000.0,395000.0,342000.0,348500.0,298000.0,252000.0,261500.0,283000.0,352000.0,295000.0,348000.0,302000.0,278000.0,259000.0,241000.0,254000.0,252000.0,228000.0,262000.0,238000.0,282000.0,812000.0,1820000.0,505000.0,298000.0,276000.0,258000.0,348000.0,248000.0,218000.0,232000.0,258000.0,202000.0,345000.0,352000.0,278000.0,218000.0,198000.0,182000.0,192000.0,182000.0,168000.0,148000.0,82000.0,92000.0,122000.0,178000.0,202000.0,198000.0,182000.0,162000.0,172000.0,172000.0,158000.0,182000.0,218000.0,232000.0,505000.0,352000.0,252000.0,202000.0,182000.0,172000.0,182000.0,178000.0,162000.0,182000.0,168000.0,182000.0,282000.0,405000.0,198000.0,152000.0,138000.0,198000.0,182000.0,122000.0,108000.0,118000.0,112000.0,118000.0,98000.0,92000.0,112000.0,305000.0,182000.0,148000.0,138000.0,142000.0,352000.0,248000.0,178000.0,152000.0,152000.0,132000.0,122000.0,132000.0,298000.0,182000.0,158000.0,132000.0,122000.0,148000.0,132000.0,142000.0,348000.0,295000.0,218000.0,202000.0,178000.0,162000.0,152000.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[340000.0,310000.0,350000.0,330000.0,360000.0,950000.0,3600000.0,4300000.0,780000.0,520000.0,480000.0,500000.0,450000.0,430000.0,520000.0,560000.0,820000.0,560000.0,540000.0,640000.0,560000.0,530000.0,590000.0,520000.0,490000.0,520000.0,570000.0,680000.0,620000.0,1250000.0,7200000.0,1650000.0,830000.0,700000.0,680000.0,1150000.0,1250000.0,880000.0,900000.0,760000.0,620000.0,980000.0,1050000.0,880000.0,640000.0,520000.0,430000.0,520000.0,560000.0,520000.0,430000.0,320000.0,330000.0,420000.0,480000.0,570000.0,480000.0,470000.0,560000.0,480000.0,520000.0,500000.0,560000.0,680000.0,950000.0,1250000.0,1900000.0,1050000.0,680000.0,580000.0,560000.0,500000.0,660000.0,520000.0,500000.0,470000.0,560000.0,980000.0,1450000.0,720000.0,480000.0,470000.0,620000.0,720000.0,480000.0,430000.0,430000.0,420000.0,460000.0,420000.0,460000.0,1450000.0,1150000.0,580000.0,470000.0,440000.0,430000.0,3200000.0,1250000.0,560000.0,470000.0,520000.0,500000.0,430000.0,420000.0,1350000.0,950000.0,520000.0,470000.0,450000.0,680000.0,520000.0,560000.0,1150000.0,880000.0,620000.0,580000.0,540000.0,500000.0,450000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[90000.0,95000.0,100000.0,105000.0,120000.0,180000.0,420000.0,1500000.0,520000.0,300000.0,260000.0,240000.0,240000.0,230000.0,240000.0,250000.0,280000.0,240000.0,280000.0,260000.0,240000.0,230000.0,220000.0,210000.0,230000.0,220000.0,240000.0,250000.0,280000.0,600000.0,1200000.0,420000.0,280000.0,260000.0,240000.0,230000.0,260000.0,240000.0,260000.0,300000.0,330000.0,480000.0,560000.0,420000.0,280000.0,260000.0,240000.0,230000.0,240000.0,220000.0,200000.0,160000.0,150000.0,160000.0,180000.0,200000.0,220000.0,230000.0,210000.0,200000.0,220000.0,210000.0,200000.0,210000.0,240000.0,380000.0,480000.0,330000.0,280000.0,260000.0,240000.0,220000.0,230000.0,210000.0,220000.0,200000.0,230000.0,290000.0,340000.0,290000.0,380000.0,290000.0,240000.0,210000.0,210000.0,420000.0,330000.0,240000.0,210000.0,190000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,190000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,140000.0,150000.0,160000.0,230000.0,200000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,190000.0,170000.0,180000.0,200000.0,320000.0,230000.0,210000.0,380000.0,280000.0,240000.0,210000.0,190000.0,180000.0,170000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[185000.0,195000.0,180000.0,170000.0,260000.0,780000.0,720000.0,1850000.0,480000.0,360000.0,310000.0,270000.0,260000.0,340000.0,260000.0,250000.0,420000.0,210000.0,240000.0,360000.0,320000.0,230000.0,280000.0,220000.0,260000.0,300000.0,270000.0,280000.0,340000.0,1650000.0,1450000.0,620000.0,380000.0,360000.0,300000.0,340000.0,300000.0,300000.0,190000.0,210000.0,240000.0,360000.0,380000.0,320000.0,210000.0,160000.0,170000.0,180000.0,150000.0,180000.0,150000.0,110000.0,110000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,150000.0,170000.0,140000.0,140000.0,130000.0,170000.0,160000.0,210000.0,680000.0,320000.0,300000.0,200000.0,280000.0,190000.0,150000.0,130000.0,170000.0,200000.0,140000.0,220000.0,200000.0,360000.0,220000.0,280000.0,180000.0,260000.0,280000.0,190000.0,140000.0,210000.0,130000.0,160000.0,120000.0,110000.0,130000.0,560000.0,300000.0,150000.0,120000.0,100000.0,110000.0,240000.0,90000.0,110000.0,170000.0,110000.0,120000.0,80000.0,90000.0,210000.0,130000.0,80000.0,70000.0,150000.0,90000.0,110000.0,380000.0,300000.0,180000.0,160000.0,140000.0,320000.0,190000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[180000.0,175000.0,195000.0,260000.0,340000.0,1250000.0,1650000.0,3600000.0,780000.0,520000.0,460000.0,400000.0,540000.0,680000.0,440000.0,470000.0,950000.0,320000.0,280000.0,680000.0,430000.0,440000.0,410000.0,370000.0,440000.0,410000.0,520000.0,430000.0,390000.0,2300000.0,5200000.0,950000.0,560000.0,530000.0,490000.0,440000.0,470000.0,440000.0,500000.0,460000.0,410000.0,290000.0,360000.0,560000.0,440000.0,430000.0,410000.0,390000.0,430000.0,450000.0,520000.0,390000.0,430000.0,720000.0,580000.0,850000.0,500000.0,470000.0,440000.0,420000.0,460000.0,430000.0,460000.0,440000.0,680000.0,2600000.0,1900000.0,760000.0,540000.0,520000.0,490000.0,470000.0,720000.0,560000.0,510000.0,470000.0,540000.0,1900000.0,2600000.0,820000.0,560000.0,530000.0,780000.0,1150000.0,490000.0,460000.0,530000.0,480000.0,440000.0,390000.0,360000.0,410000.0,2300000.0,1500000.0,950000.0,1150000.0,720000.0,620000.0,1250000.0,620000.0,520000.0,470000.0,430000.0,410000.0,470000.0,1900000.0,950000.0,720000.0,560000.0,510000.0,1050000.0,660000.0,560000.0,1550000.0,1250000.0,720000.0,610000.0,590000.0,560000.0,510000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,48000.0,58000.0,85000.0,240000.0,850000.0,430000.0,250000.0,175000.0,145000.0,150000.0,135000.0,145000.0,175000.0,195000.0,145000.0,210000.0,180000.0,230000.0,175000.0,155000.0,200000.0,185000.0,150000.0,185000.0,185000.0,240000.0,620000.0,1500000.0,360000.0,240000.0,205000.0,195000.0,185000.0,200000.0,190000.0,235000.0,190000.0,210000.0,195000.0,185000.0,180000.0,175000.0,165000.0,160000.0,165000.0,175000.0,185000.0,195000.0,160000.0,195000.0,180000.0,170000.0,270000.0,175000.0,165000.0,170000.0,185000.0,185000.0,165000.0,175000.0,205000.0,195000.0,340000.0,255000.0,400000.0,270000.0,950000.0,340000.0,290000.0,245000.0,200000.0,190000.0,180000.0,225000.0,280000.0,260000.0,215000.0,480000.0,195000.0,185000.0,200000.0,180000.0,190000.0,170000.0,225000.0,180000.0,225000.0,245000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,160000.0,170000.0,150000.0,145000.0,148000.0,200000.0,168000.0,155000.0,185000.0,160000.0,190000.0,158000.0,165000.0,170000.0,185000.0,270000.0,195000.0,165000.0,160000.0,195000.0,185000.0,165000.0,220000.0,175000.0,165000.0,175000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[120000.0,120000.0,110000.0,110000.0,130000.0,210000.0,260000.0,420000.0,230000.0,200000.0,180000.0,180000.0,160000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,170000.0,140000.0,130000.0,150000.0,130000.0,130000.0,130000.0,130000.0,130000.0,120000.0,130000.0,130000.0,150000.0,260000.0,480000.0,220000.0,200000.0,190000.0,170000.0,200000.0,210000.0,180000.0,170000.0,150000.0,140000.0,150000.0,200000.0,220000.0,150000.0,130000.0,120000.0,120000.0,120000.0,110000.0,100000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,130000.0,110000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,90000.0,90000.0,100000.0,120000.0,160000.0,200000.0,150000.0,150000.0,150000.0,220000.0,200000.0,120000.0,100000.0,100000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,110000.0,230000.0,130000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,130000.0,120000.0,170000.0,90000.0,80000.0,75000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,65000.0,65000.0,65000.0,60000.0,65000.0,60000.0,65000.0,65000.0,90000.0,95000.0,85000.0,70000.0,65000.0,60000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[165000.0,128000.0,104000.0,92000.0,112000.0,740000.0,1280000.0,4820000.0,1220000.0,720000.0,540000.0,620000.0,206000.0,131000.0,108000.0,102000.0,168000.0,127000.0,154000.0,268000.0,146000.0,123000.0,151000.0,211000.0,218000.0,132000.0,107000.0,119000.0,212000.0,858000.0,1980000.0,316000.0,159000.0,137000.0,176000.0,258000.0,241000.0,142000.0,114000.0,107000.0,158000.0,136000.0,168000.0,256000.0,143000.0,122000.0,147000.0,215000.0,196000.0,134000.0,107000.0,66000.0,74000.0,102000.0,132000.0,156000.0,118000.0,129000.0,151000.0,203000.0,202000.0,140000.0,112000.0,101000.0,186000.0,428000.0,660000.0,518000.0,148000.0,124000.0,156000.0,209000.0,191000.0,131000.0,109000.0,97000.0,312000.0,428000.0,866000.0,372000.0,264000.0,172000.0,338000.0,541000.0,174000.0,127000.0,104000.0,92000.0,112000.0,122000.0,138000.0,222000.0,528000.0,301000.0,192000.0,248000.0,178000.0,586000.0,247000.0,112000.0,96000.0,102000.0,118000.0,128000.0,109000.0,97000.0,112000.0,368000.0,214000.0,147000.0,316000.0,178000.0,152000.0,242000.0,498000.0,382000.0,202000.0,162000.0,151000.0,192000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[125000.0,115000.0,120000.0,128000.0,150000.0,220000.0,310000.0,950000.0,420000.0,310000.0,285000.0,220000.0,210000.0,190000.0,205000.0,210000.0,245000.0,230000.0,260000.0,235000.0,215000.0,230000.0,205000.0,190000.0,200000.0,190000.0,205000.0,230000.0,260000.0,430000.0,620000.0,350000.0,260000.0,230000.0,210000.0,195000.0,205000.0,190000.0,210000.0,195000.0,220000.0,205000.0,230000.0,215000.0,200000.0,185000.0,175000.0,165000.0,160000.0,155000.0,175000.0,160000.0,180000.0,200000.0,185000.0,175000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,170000.0,180000.0,195000.0,210000.0,260000.0,390000.0,440000.0,700000.0,430000.0,300000.0,270000.0,250000.0,240000.0,220000.0,225000.0,230000.0,250000.0,340000.0,520000.0,350000.0,270000.0,230000.0,210000.0,200000.0,190000.0,175000.0,180000.0,165000.0,170000.0,160000.0,155000.0,150000.0,480000.0,410000.0,240000.0,200000.0,185000.0,650000.0,380000.0,240000.0,260000.0,220000.0,180000.0,170000.0,190000.0,360000.0,230000.0,200000.0,170000.0,160000.0,175000.0,165000.0,170000.0,180000.0,190000.0,175000.0,160000.0,155000.0,150000.0,145000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[40000.0,40000.0,45000.0,40000.0,45000.0,90000.0,170000.0,280000.0,120000.0,90000.0,70000.0,60000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,45000.0,50000.0,55000.0,70000.0,80000.0,60000.0,55000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,50000.0,150000.0,380000.0,120000.0,70000.0,60000.0,55000.0,50000.0,55000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,55000.0,50000.0,60000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,50000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,35000.0,40000.0,40000.0,35000.0,35000.0,40000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,45000.0,60000.0,70000.0,60000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,35000.0,40000.0,35000.0,60000.0,40000.0,45000.0,150000.0,80000.0,50000.0,40000.0,60000.0,50000.0,40000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,40000.0,120000.0,70000.0,50000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,45000.0,80000.0,60000.0,45000.0,60000.0,40000.0,45000.0,40000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,40000.0,40000.0,50000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0]}},{"title":"Conan O'Brien","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Conan O'Brien\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[252931,162822,159864,150995,125394,114567,114664,93209,95406,123687,383012,151189,132504,145893,176881,121518,127688,97876,103820,108214,147639,166433,118797,100283,138174,107214,129780,158755,118393,103700,156085,138446,137668,115673,131346,177139,311482,212488,125674,150585,169311,134772,158450,147230,134796,148109,167851,150638,158804,136518,173706,215821,179367,121988,111451,115627,128193,127053,175223,155302,132423,113456,142884,135377,217914,525500,220584,121484,176884,126479,99202,98179,135592,174117,133467,129340,100191,113057,103517,133822,94646,121097,141509,111713,111339,104070,128304,145468,140372,118102,123871,114997,129980,186879,121828,144692,185602,112983,123200,397268,172249,105685,96472,97905,92551,111132,139547,167525,163113,176779,390655,113838,306596,117042,137735,111075,143579,157420,110613,233015],"flat_reference_value":16779.996571853186,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[225000.0,250000.0,210000.0,205000.0,200000.0,195000.0,205000.0,210000.0,195000.0,200000.0,215000.0,215000.0,230000.0,235000.0,215000.0,205000.0,210000.0,200000.0,205000.0,215000.0,210000.0,205000.0,210000.0,225000.0,310000.0,250000.0,225000.0,220000.0,220000.0,210000.0,215000.0,220000.0,215000.0,225000.0,250000.0,230000.0,300000.0,240000.0,235000.0,225000.0,230000.0,220000.0,225000.0,230000.0,225000.0,230000.0,220000.0,235000.0,245000.0,225000.0,260000.0,255000.0,240000.0,225000.0,230000.0,235000.0,225000.0,230000.0,340000.0,260000.0,255000.0,230000.0,240000.0,235000.0,280000.0,750000.0,340000.0,260000.0,240000.0,240000.0,230000.0,245000.0,255000.0,230000.0,245000.0,235000.0,260000.0,240000.0,235000.0,245000.0,235000.0,240000.0,230000.0,250000.0,260000.0,235000.0,250000.0,245000.0,250000.0,235000.0,245000.0,250000.0,245000.0,255000.0,245000.0,260000.0,270000.0,250000.0,275000.0,850000.0,400000.0,290000.0,280000.0,275000.0,265000.0,280000.0,420000.0,1000000.0,380000.0,360000.0,1800000.0,480000.0,350000.0,300000.0,300000.0,300000.0,285000.0,290000.0,280000.0,310000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[195000.0,235000.0,185000.0,210000.0,175000.0,170000.0,180000.0,168000.0,175000.0,182000.0,190000.0,185000.0,192000.0,178000.0,225000.0,185000.0,176000.0,168000.0,175000.0,170000.0,215000.0,180000.0,188000.0,182000.0,245000.0,175000.0,178000.0,195000.0,172000.0,165000.0,170000.0,168000.0,190000.0,205000.0,230000.0,195000.0,240000.0,185000.0,190000.0,182000.0,178000.0,175000.0,172000.0,255000.0,185000.0,178000.0,180000.0,185000.0,190000.0,175000.0,215000.0,225000.0,195000.0,180000.0,185000.0,175000.0,170000.0,175000.0,290000.0,195000.0,190000.0,175000.0,180000.0,185000.0,230000.0,520000.0,240000.0,175000.0,235000.0,170000.0,165000.0,170000.0,195000.0,160000.0,165000.0,162000.0,245000.0,175000.0,160000.0,155000.0,158000.0,162000.0,168000.0,165000.0,172000.0,152000.0,160000.0,158000.0,165000.0,155000.0,162000.0,158000.0,165000.0,175000.0,170000.0,178000.0,195000.0,175000.0,210000.0,480000.0,265000.0,195000.0,185000.0,180000.0,190000.0,185000.0,420000.0,550000.0,340000.0,390000.0,1250000.0,310000.0,380000.0,240000.0,210000.0,195000.0,205000.0,195000.0,200000.0,225000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[154000.0,172000.0,149000.0,182000.0,141000.0,136000.0,152000.0,128000.0,134000.0,139000.0,148000.0,143000.0,138000.0,144000.0,179000.0,136000.0,129000.0,124000.0,146000.0,126000.0,142000.0,131000.0,133000.0,128000.0,158000.0,131000.0,127000.0,162000.0,124000.0,119000.0,136000.0,121000.0,126000.0,132000.0,166000.0,139000.0,161000.0,134000.0,138000.0,147000.0,133000.0,128000.0,141000.0,132000.0,152000.0,136000.0,142000.0,134000.0,146000.0,132000.0,141000.0,137000.0,131000.0,126000.0,143000.0,124000.0,129000.0,131000.0,282000.0,163000.0,151000.0,139000.0,144000.0,142000.0,192000.0,464000.0,212000.0,156000.0,172000.0,146000.0,138000.0,133000.0,141000.0,134000.0,139000.0,133000.0,211000.0,148000.0,139000.0,132000.0,138000.0,133000.0,139000.0,134000.0,138000.0,132000.0,137000.0,142000.0,158000.0,139000.0,138000.0,133000.0,129000.0,134000.0,143000.0,137000.0,168000.0,149000.0,182000.0,625000.0,312000.0,188000.0,164000.0,154000.0,162000.0,149000.0,382000.0,191000.0,204000.0,285000.0,820000.0,248000.0,172000.0,156000.0,148000.0,142000.0,151000.0,139000.0,144000.0,138000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[210000.0,200000.0,205000.0,195000.0,190000.0,185000.0,195000.0,185000.0,180000.0,185000.0,180000.0,175000.0,185000.0,175000.0,180000.0,170000.0,170000.0,165000.0,175000.0,165000.0,160000.0,165000.0,160000.0,155000.0,165000.0,155000.0,160000.0,155000.0,185000.0,155000.0,160000.0,150000.0,145000.0,150000.0,145000.0,145000.0,190000.0,160000.0,155000.0,150000.0,145000.0,140000.0,155000.0,140000.0,135000.0,140000.0,135000.0,135000.0,140000.0,135000.0,145000.0,160000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,130000.0,135000.0,130000.0,135000.0,130000.0,135000.0,135000.0,170000.0,330000.0,170000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,125000.0,125000.0,120000.0,135000.0,175000.0,145000.0,125000.0,125000.0,120000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,115000.0,115000.0,115000.0,125000.0,125000.0,130000.0,210000.0,170000.0,145000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,135000.0,290000.0,180000.0,200000.0,380000.0,1300000.0,320000.0,260000.0,230000.0,220000.0,200000.0,260000.0,210000.0,200000.0,210000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[290000.0,300000.0,280000.0,290000.0,260000.0,250000.0,250000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,250000.0,250000.0,260000.0,250000.0,260000.0,250000.0,250000.0,230000.0,230000.0,225000.0,220000.0,225000.0,225000.0,230000.0,250000.0,220000.0,220000.0,215000.0,230000.0,210000.0,210000.0,210000.0,210000.0,215000.0,230000.0,235000.0,270000.0,250000.0,240000.0,235000.0,235000.0,230000.0,235000.0,230000.0,230000.0,230000.0,240000.0,245000.0,260000.0,240000.0,250000.0,290000.0,290000.0,270000.0,270000.0,260000.0,250000.0,250000.0,300000.0,270000.0,280000.0,260000.0,270000.0,270000.0,320000.0,650000.0,380000.0,280000.0,260000.0,250000.0,250000.0,260000.0,270000.0,240000.0,250000.0,250000.0,270000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,235000.0,240000.0,245000.0,250000.0,270000.0,250000.0,260000.0,250000.0,270000.0,250000.0,260000.0,260000.0,250000.0,250000.0,260000.0,280000.0,300000.0,290000.0,320000.0,800000.0,520000.0,370000.0,340000.0,320000.0,300000.0,300000.0,380000.0,480000.0,420000.0,450000.0,1700000.0,480000.0,420000.0,360000.0,350000.0,330000.0,340000.0,320000.0,320000.0,600000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[175000.0,235000.0,185000.0,215000.0,180000.0,175000.0,165000.0,170000.0,175000.0,185000.0,245000.0,195000.0,175000.0,180000.0,285000.0,190000.0,185000.0,175000.0,165000.0,175000.0,255000.0,185000.0,180000.0,160000.0,235000.0,180000.0,175000.0,250000.0,180000.0,175000.0,165000.0,165000.0,175000.0,180000.0,220000.0,235000.0,210000.0,180000.0,185000.0,220000.0,240000.0,180000.0,170000.0,170000.0,175000.0,265000.0,185000.0,170000.0,175000.0,175000.0,215000.0,205000.0,255000.0,200000.0,190000.0,185000.0,185000.0,180000.0,175000.0,165000.0,170000.0,170000.0,175000.0,180000.0,225000.0,340000.0,205000.0,180000.0,190000.0,180000.0,175000.0,165000.0,170000.0,215000.0,180000.0,180000.0,175000.0,175000.0,170000.0,165000.0,170000.0,170000.0,170000.0,160000.0,165000.0,170000.0,170000.0,170000.0,175000.0,165000.0,160000.0,160000.0,165000.0,170000.0,170000.0,160000.0,170000.0,170000.0,175000.0,245000.0,215000.0,180000.0,175000.0,170000.0,175000.0,180000.0,320000.0,200000.0,245000.0,305000.0,1150000.0,420000.0,310000.0,235000.0,215000.0,205000.0,205000.0,215000.0,235000.0,215000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[192847.0,173512.0,181204.0,164338.0,158921.0,152476.0,144302.0,149885.0,163740.0,169512.0,176083.0,159274.0,174625.0,149832.0,159417.0,144908.0,139574.0,134211.0,124689.0,129453.0,144207.0,149836.0,154902.0,139516.0,164738.0,141205.0,149618.0,137942.0,134577.0,127893.0,121456.0,125831.0,139674.0,144903.0,151227.0,134589.0,248962.0,179435.0,164812.0,149673.0,144258.0,134901.0,124773.0,129640.0,141885.0,147932.0,152418.0,137506.0,149823.0,141679.0,181345.0,189712.0,159834.0,144927.0,134512.0,137896.0,149573.0,154681.0,282419.0,179853.0,164592.0,154377.0,159851.0,154903.0,169742.0,382164.0,208937.0,149624.0,144518.0,139876.0,144932.0,129647.0,139815.0,131942.0,137685.0,129834.0,134916.0,221473.0,149281.0,134672.0,129953.0,134807.0,139624.0,124518.0,134739.0,119864.0,124917.0,121538.0,117692.0,111845.0,107923.0,114689.0,119754.0,124836.0,139472.0,114831.0,134928.0,129674.0,144892.0,482317.0,199584.0,159732.0,149416.0,154823.0,169547.0,164293.0,321758.0,179642.0,209834.0,341592.0,954823.0,381264.0,219738.0,189524.0,174891.0,199637.0,209452.0,194817.0,189633.0,174258.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[132000.0,108000.0,102000.0,172000.0,96000.0,91000.0,89000.0,94000.0,102000.0,108000.0,112000.0,92000.0,106000.0,100000.0,232000.0,104000.0,95000.0,88000.0,86000.0,118000.0,96000.0,99000.0,92000.0,84000.0,96000.0,90000.0,88000.0,85000.0,82000.0,138000.0,81000.0,78000.0,86000.0,89000.0,128000.0,96000.0,112000.0,84000.0,81000.0,78000.0,75000.0,73000.0,70000.0,72000.0,79000.0,83000.0,112000.0,76000.0,81000.0,78000.0,98000.0,112000.0,82000.0,76000.0,73000.0,70000.0,76000.0,79000.0,92000.0,86000.0,80000.0,78000.0,84000.0,78000.0,86000.0,320000.0,128000.0,88000.0,82000.0,78000.0,76000.0,72000.0,76000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,82000.0,64000.0,61000.0,58000.0,64000.0,68000.0,66000.0,60000.0,66000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0,55000.0,54000.0,60000.0,62000.0,62000.0,56000.0,62000.0,60000.0,66000.0,168000.0,96000.0,72000.0,66000.0,62000.0,66000.0,72000.0,96000.0,84000.0,105000.0,118000.0,1180000.0,210000.0,112000.0,92000.0,84000.0,80000.0,88000.0,94000.0,118000.0,92000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[170000.0,160000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,160000.0,170000.0,170000.0,180000.0,180000.0,170000.0,250000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,230000.0,180000.0,180000.0,190000.0,250000.0,180000.0,190000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,240000.0,180000.0,180000.0,190000.0,190000.0,180000.0,190000.0,180000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,160000.0,180000.0,190000.0,200000.0,210000.0,220000.0,210000.0,300000.0,280000.0,250000.0,240000.0,220000.0,220000.0,240000.0,250000.0,260000.0,270000.0,280000.0,260000.0,280000.0,270000.0,550000.0,1200000.0,600000.0,350000.0,300000.0,290000.0,290000.0,300000.0,260000.0,240000.0,250000.0,240000.0,230000.0,220000.0,210000.0,210000.0,230000.0,240000.0,250000.0,270000.0,250000.0,240000.0,260000.0,650000.0,280000.0,260000.0,240000.0,240000.0,260000.0,280000.0,290000.0,310000.0,320000.0,300000.0,350000.0,900000.0,450000.0,380000.0,350000.0,340000.0,370000.0,390000.0,600000.0,850000.0,500000.0,450000.0,3500000.0,900000.0,700000.0,550000.0,500000.0,480000.0,520000.0,550000.0,600000.0,650000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[84000.0,78000.0,82000.0,81000.0,79000.0,74000.0,72000.0,73000.0,76000.0,85000.0,93000.0,78000.0,88000.0,74000.0,76000.0,75000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,67000.0,75000.0,77000.0,74000.0,68000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,60000.0,58000.0,59000.0,62000.0,69000.0,71000.0,61000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,79000.0,64000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,69000.0,62000.0,60000.0,54000.0,58000.0,54000.0,66000.0,68000.0,60000.0,55000.0,53000.0,54000.0,56000.0,62000.0,99000.0,62000.0,64000.0,60000.0,62000.0,67000.0,150000.0,58000.0,44000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,38000.0,39000.0,36000.0,45000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,33000.0,37000.0,34000.0,36000.0,39000.0,55000.0,44000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,42000.0,34000.0,79000.0,42000.0,99000.0,48000.0,63000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,33000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[152000.0,149000.0,154000.0,151000.0,146000.0,141000.0,138000.0,140000.0,151000.0,156000.0,158000.0,147000.0,148000.0,145000.0,150000.0,147000.0,142000.0,137000.0,134000.0,136000.0,146000.0,151000.0,153000.0,142000.0,154000.0,151000.0,156000.0,153000.0,148000.0,143000.0,140000.0,142000.0,152000.0,157000.0,410000.0,330000.0,141000.0,138000.0,143000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,127000.0,129000.0,139000.0,144000.0,146000.0,136000.0,156000.0,153000.0,235000.0,225000.0,170000.0,158000.0,152000.0,155000.0,165000.0,170000.0,173000.0,160000.0,151000.0,148000.0,153000.0,150000.0,205000.0,620000.0,190000.0,158000.0,154000.0,158000.0,160000.0,150000.0,126000.0,123000.0,128000.0,125000.0,120000.0,115000.0,112000.0,114000.0,124000.0,129000.0,131000.0,121000.0,122000.0,119000.0,124000.0,121000.0,116000.0,111000.0,108000.0,110000.0,120000.0,125000.0,127000.0,117000.0,132000.0,138000.0,205000.0,195000.0,165000.0,150000.0,145000.0,170000.0,520000.0,430000.0,320000.0,210000.0,300000.0,480000.0,850000.0,380000.0,260000.0,210000.0,195000.0,200000.0,235000.0,255000.0,270000.0,220000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[48000.0,96000.0,55000.0,46000.0,64000.0,58000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,77000.0,52000.0,63000.0,49000.0,45000.0,90000.0,86000.0,72000.0,51000.0,46000.0,46000.0,48000.0,57000.0,55000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,49000.0,53000.0,49000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,47000.0,82000.0,57000.0,54000.0,50000.0,46000.0,46000.0,49000.0,46000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,47000.0,67000.0,53000.0,52000.0,49000.0,67000.0,96000.0,112000.0,84000.0,70000.0,64000.0,61000.0,66000.0,95000.0,72000.0,103000.0,67000.0,59000.0,56000.0,55000.0,52000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,53000.0,72000.0,62000.0,58000.0,54000.0,51000.0,53000.0,104000.0,87000.0,65000.0,60000.0,57000.0,61000.0,116000.0,77000.0,68000.0,58000.0,54000.0,53000.0,59000.0,85000.0,61000.0,55000.0,53000.0,58000.0,77000.0,65000.0,67000.0,57000.0,52000.0,52000.0,54000.0,77000.0,119000.0,84000.0,62000.0,73000.0,106000.0,73000.0,104000.0,68000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,49000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,52000.0,74000.0,61000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[260000.0,240000.0,240000.0,235000.0,240000.0,230000.0,215000.0,215000.0,225000.0,235000.0,235000.0,240000.0,250000.0,240000.0,240000.0,230000.0,230000.0,220000.0,215000.0,215000.0,225000.0,230000.0,235000.0,240000.0,250000.0,240000.0,240000.0,230000.0,230000.0,225000.0,220000.0,215000.0,225000.0,230000.0,235000.0,240000.0,250000.0,235000.0,235000.0,230000.0,230000.0,240000.0,250000.0,225000.0,225000.0,230000.0,235000.0,240000.0,250000.0,240000.0,260000.0,250000.0,240000.0,230000.0,225000.0,220000.0,225000.0,230000.0,235000.0,240000.0,250000.0,240000.0,240000.0,250000.0,290000.0,380000.0,270000.0,250000.0,250000.0,250000.0,255000.0,260000.0,265000.0,255000.0,260000.0,250000.0,250000.0,245000.0,240000.0,235000.0,245000.0,250000.0,255000.0,260000.0,265000.0,255000.0,260000.0,255000.0,260000.0,250000.0,245000.0,240000.0,250000.0,260000.0,270000.0,275000.0,280000.0,270000.0,280000.0,330000.0,320000.0,290000.0,285000.0,280000.0,290000.0,300000.0,310000.0,330000.0,330000.0,400000.0,620000.0,380000.0,340000.0,320000.0,310000.0,330000.0,340000.0,330000.0,330000.0,340000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[79800.0,72500.0,88200.0,95100.0,214300.0,156800.0,101200.0,92600.0,104900.0,89400.0,97700.0,112300.0,88600.0,79300.0,76800.0,98700.0,72400.0,67500.0,64900.0,70300.0,89200.0,73100.0,82400.0,85100.0,85400.0,77900.0,168500.0,87200.0,70600.0,65800.0,63900.0,74200.0,98400.0,76300.0,84100.0,88600.0,91200.0,83400.0,79800.0,99300.0,72100.0,66700.0,64300.0,75900.0,103600.0,78200.0,86900.0,93100.0,103800.0,94200.0,119600.0,101400.0,84700.0,78100.0,76400.0,89900.0,118300.0,86600.0,97500.0,101200.0,97600.0,88400.0,85300.0,105200.0,76800.0,70900.0,69100.0,81600.0,101400.0,77300.0,88700.0,93400.0,113400.0,102800.0,105900.0,291500.0,147300.0,101700.0,92100.0,112900.0,147600.0,106200.0,122800.0,128900.0,131700.0,221400.0,232800.0,198600.0,151300.0,112900.0,103400.0,128700.0,174300.0,122100.0,149600.0,161200.0,188300.0,170400.0,164900.0,192700.0,160200.0,145500.0,140300.0,481200.0,341700.0,251400.0,208900.0,229600.0,172900.0,156400.0,149800.0,174300.0,142700.0,131200.0,127400.0,311500.0,232800.0,167400.0,181900.0,189600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[82000.0,79000.0,85000.0,81000.0,83000.0,80000.0,78000.0,81000.0,85000.0,87000.0,92000.0,88000.0,85000.0,80000.0,82000.0,79000.0,81000.0,78000.0,76000.0,79000.0,82000.0,84000.0,87000.0,85000.0,82000.0,86000.0,155000.0,102000.0,85000.0,82000.0,79000.0,81000.0,83000.0,85000.0,88000.0,86000.0,82000.0,79000.0,81000.0,78000.0,80000.0,77000.0,75000.0,77000.0,80000.0,82000.0,85000.0,83000.0,81000.0,80000.0,91000.0,95000.0,90000.0,87000.0,85000.0,83000.0,86000.0,88000.0,90000.0,87000.0,85000.0,82000.0,87000.0,92000.0,145000.0,215000.0,135000.0,97000.0,90000.0,92000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,82000.0,84000.0,81000.0,82000.0,80000.0,78000.0,79000.0,82000.0,84000.0,87000.0,85000.0,81000.0,78000.0,80000.0,77000.0,79000.0,76000.0,74000.0,76000.0,79000.0,81000.0,84000.0,82000.0,79000.0,78000.0,82000.0,79000.0,80000.0,77000.0,75000.0,77000.0,80000.0,83000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,145000.0,325000.0,175000.0,115000.0,98000.0,90000.0,88000.0,92000.0,95000.0,98000.0,94000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,85000.0,52000.0,41000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0]}},{"title":"The Three Stooges","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"The Three Stooges\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[96199,83346,97462,78854,98345,75893,85369,94901,93741,91592,80089,89609,124589,77484,76001,82671,73371,99206,75483,70289,65046,76863,80392,90610,95245,65378,83650,83408,80499,88388,111474,91624,68684,69499,66144,78202,96886,66656,69725,69015,75396,81828,80835,97066,95125,87324,88676,90779,81471,81385,104425,119806,120252,97529,109865,92982,88462,85814,84455,90164,89984,83981,152339,120304,126985,96771,96165,104804,97514,99470,77535,82977,99159,84399,94494,91732,97998,96220,91753,87023,76939,80789,86442,97370,94366,93357,99109,94528,109989,85893,96636,92129,91962,110555,101256,97626,116889,116861,98778,82171,80336,80416,75228,76720,85205,85952,73544,76915,84218,79748,82668,70251,77010,87272,79700,75871,69662,89016,80978,69120],"flat_reference_value":16821.026017026463,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[76000.0,66000.0,68000.0,65000.0,64000.0,66000.0,70000.0,66000.0,61000.0,65000.0,62000.0,70000.0,78000.0,64000.0,67000.0,65000.0,62000.0,67000.0,69000.0,65000.0,60000.0,64000.0,61000.0,69000.0,76000.0,62000.0,65000.0,63000.0,61000.0,63000.0,68000.0,64000.0,59000.0,63000.0,60000.0,68000.0,74000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,66000.0,63000.0,58000.0,62000.0,59000.0,67000.0,75000.0,63000.0,79000.0,95000.0,85000.0,76000.0,77000.0,72000.0,66000.0,69000.0,66000.0,74000.0,80000.0,65000.0,69000.0,66000.0,63000.0,65000.0,69000.0,65000.0,61000.0,64000.0,62000.0,70000.0,76000.0,61000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,66000.0,62000.0,57000.0,61000.0,58000.0,66000.0,72000.0,58000.0,61000.0,59000.0,57000.0,59000.0,63000.0,60000.0,55000.0,59000.0,56000.0,64000.0,70000.0,57000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0,62000.0,58000.0,53000.0,57000.0,55000.0,62000.0,68000.0,55000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,56000.0,60000.0,57000.0,52000.0,55000.0,53000.0,61000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[154200.0,124800.0,131500.0,122400.0,119600.0,114300.0,121900.0,118700.0,115200.0,120800.0,123900.0,138400.0,158900.0,123100.0,129400.0,121700.0,118200.0,112800.0,120500.0,117900.0,113600.0,119400.0,124600.0,141200.0,161300.0,121500.0,128700.0,120300.0,116800.0,111900.0,119200.0,116400.0,112700.0,118100.0,122800.0,139700.0,159400.0,119800.0,127600.0,118900.0,117300.0,112400.0,118800.0,117100.0,113200.0,119500.0,124100.0,142600.0,163800.0,124200.0,146500.0,162900.0,157400.0,143800.0,145200.0,141600.0,134900.0,138700.0,141300.0,158200.0,176400.0,136800.0,141200.0,131500.0,127900.0,121400.0,126800.0,124300.0,119700.0,124900.0,128400.0,145900.0,165200.0,125600.0,131800.0,124500.0,122100.0,116800.0,123400.0,120200.0,115900.0,121300.0,125100.0,141800.0,158600.0,117400.0,122900.0,115800.0,112600.0,107900.0,114500.0,111800.0,107200.0,112400.0,116300.0,132700.0,149800.0,112300.0,116700.0,109400.0,106800.0,102500.0,108900.0,106100.0,101800.0,106500.0,110200.0,126400.0,143500.0,105900.0,110800.0,103700.0,101200.0,97400.0,103100.0,100600.0,96800.0,101400.0,104900.0,120800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[88400.0,74100.0,76500.0,72300.0,70800.0,68400.0,71200.0,69500.0,67800.0,71000.0,72500.0,81200.0,85300.0,71800.0,73200.0,69100.0,68500.0,66200.0,68900.0,67400.0,64800.0,67200.0,69500.0,78600.0,82100.0,68400.0,71200.0,66500.0,65800.0,63400.0,66100.0,65200.0,63100.0,65800.0,67200.0,76400.0,79500.0,66100.0,67800.0,64200.0,63500.0,62100.0,64800.0,63200.0,61500.0,64100.0,65900.0,74800.0,78200.0,65400.0,78900.0,92400.0,84100.0,71500.0,69200.0,67800.0,64300.0,66700.0,68200.0,77500.0,80600.0,67200.0,68900.0,65100.0,63800.0,61400.0,64200.0,62800.0,60500.0,63100.0,64700.0,73400.0,76800.0,63500.0,65100.0,61800.0,60400.0,58900.0,61200.0,59800.0,57600.0,60200.0,62100.0,70500.0,74200.0,61800.0,63400.0,59700.0,58200.0,56800.0,59100.0,57500.0,55400.0,58100.0,60300.0,68900.0,72100.0,59800.0,61200.0,57900.0,56400.0,54800.0,57200.0,55600.0,53800.0,56300.0,58400.0,66700.0,70500.0,58200.0,59600.0,56100.0,54900.0,53400.0,55800.0,54100.0,52500.0,54800.0,56900.0,64800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[145000.0,134000.0,139000.0,136000.0,135000.0,128000.0,132000.0,130000.0,125000.0,130000.0,134000.0,145000.0,128000.0,118000.0,123000.0,120000.0,120000.0,114000.0,117000.0,116000.0,111000.0,116000.0,119000.0,129000.0,117000.0,107000.0,112000.0,110000.0,110000.0,104000.0,108000.0,106000.0,102000.0,106000.0,109000.0,118000.0,106000.0,97000.0,102000.0,100000.0,100000.0,95000.0,98000.0,97000.0,93000.0,97000.0,100000.0,108000.0,104000.0,96000.0,108000.0,122000.0,115000.0,102000.0,103000.0,100000.0,95000.0,98000.0,101000.0,109000.0,101000.0,92000.0,96000.0,95000.0,94000.0,90000.0,93000.0,92000.0,88000.0,92000.0,95000.0,102000.0,93000.0,85000.0,90000.0,88000.0,88000.0,83000.0,86000.0,85000.0,82000.0,85000.0,88000.0,95000.0,90000.0,82000.0,87000.0,85000.0,85000.0,81000.0,83000.0,82000.0,79000.0,82000.0,85000.0,92000.0,84000.0,78000.0,82000.0,80000.0,80000.0,76000.0,78000.0,78000.0,74000.0,78000.0,80000.0,86000.0,79000.0,73000.0,77000.0,75000.0,75000.0,71000.0,74000.0,73000.0,70000.0,73000.0,75000.0,81000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[205000.0,185000.0,185000.0,178000.0,175000.0,170000.0,175000.0,172000.0,165000.0,165000.0,170000.0,185000.0,195000.0,170000.0,172000.0,165000.0,160000.0,158000.0,162000.0,158000.0,150000.0,150000.0,155000.0,170000.0,178000.0,155000.0,155000.0,148000.0,145000.0,142000.0,146000.0,143000.0,136000.0,137000.0,140000.0,155000.0,163000.0,142000.0,143000.0,137000.0,135000.0,132000.0,136000.0,134000.0,127000.0,128000.0,132000.0,145000.0,152000.0,135000.0,145000.0,165000.0,160000.0,145000.0,143000.0,140000.0,132000.0,130000.0,133000.0,145000.0,152000.0,135000.0,136000.0,128000.0,126000.0,122000.0,125000.0,123000.0,116000.0,117000.0,120000.0,132000.0,138000.0,120000.0,122000.0,116000.0,115000.0,112000.0,115000.0,113000.0,107000.0,108000.0,110000.0,122000.0,128000.0,112000.0,114000.0,108000.0,108000.0,105000.0,108000.0,106000.0,101000.0,102000.0,104000.0,115000.0,121000.0,107000.0,108000.0,103000.0,103000.0,100000.0,103000.0,101000.0,97000.0,98000.0,100000.0,110000.0,115000.0,101000.0,103000.0,99000.0,98000.0,95000.0,97000.0,96000.0,92000.0,93000.0,95000.0,104000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[60300.0,60900.0,58500.0,58600.0,56300.0,56800.0,52900.0,55600.0,59200.0,62100.0,57400.0,55600.0,59100.0,56800.0,59100.0,55700.0,57900.0,53400.0,50800.0,53900.0,56200.0,61400.0,54600.0,52900.0,57900.0,54500.0,57900.0,54600.0,53500.0,53900.0,50200.0,51800.0,55700.0,56700.0,56200.0,49800.0,55600.0,55600.0,54000.0,53500.0,51900.0,51300.0,49200.0,48800.0,55100.0,56100.0,55600.0,54700.0,53900.0,52900.0,62600.0,67800.0,65200.0,56600.0,53500.0,51600.0,53400.0,53900.0,51900.0,48300.0,52800.0,50800.0,51800.0,48800.0,52300.0,50200.0,45400.0,47300.0,50800.0,53300.0,48800.0,47300.0,53300.0,54700.0,57200.0,58900.0,58900.0,60000.0,56000.0,53800.0,55200.0,56300.0,51200.0,46300.0,52100.0,48300.0,50200.0,46400.0,47800.0,45000.0,43100.0,44900.0,47800.0,50200.0,46400.0,44100.0,47700.0,45900.0,47800.0,45000.0,45900.0,43200.0,41000.0,43600.0,46800.0,48200.0,44500.0,43200.0,47200.0,45000.0,46300.0,44100.0,39800.0,39300.0,37300.0,38500.0,41400.0,43400.0,40200.0,38500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[47100.0,42400.0,44150.0,41200.0,40800.0,37100.0,37800.0,38650.0,39100.0,42800.0,40350.0,45350.0,44500.0,40100.0,41700.0,39000.0,38900.0,35200.0,35800.0,36600.0,37200.0,40500.0,38300.0,43000.0,42400.0,38200.0,39700.0,37200.0,37000.0,33500.0,34000.0,34800.0,35400.0,62000.0,36500.0,41000.0,40300.0,36300.0,37800.0,35400.0,35200.0,31900.0,32400.0,33100.0,33700.0,36600.0,34600.0,38900.0,38900.0,35200.0,47000.0,46500.0,43500.0,37500.0,36500.0,34000.0,33500.0,36000.0,34000.0,38500.0,37600.0,32600.0,35200.0,33100.0,32900.0,29800.0,30200.0,30800.0,31400.0,34300.0,32300.0,36400.0,35800.0,31100.0,33500.0,31500.0,31300.0,28400.0,28800.0,29400.0,30000.0,32700.0,30800.0,34500.0,34400.0,29900.0,32200.0,30200.0,30100.0,27300.0,27700.0,28200.0,28800.0,31400.0,29600.0,33200.0,32700.0,29500.0,30600.0,28700.0,28600.0,25900.0,26300.0,26800.0,27400.0,29800.0,28100.0,31500.0,31300.0,27200.0,29300.0,27500.0,27400.0,24800.0,25100.0,25700.0,26200.0,28500.0,26900.0,30200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[78900.0,71200.0,67800.0,69700.0,70100.0,72600.0,77500.0,72200.0,66300.0,68100.0,70400.0,75700.0,82400.0,68100.0,66900.0,66700.0,69200.0,69500.0,75300.0,71100.0,65600.0,65200.0,68300.0,73600.0,81500.0,66100.0,65200.0,64800.0,67100.0,67400.0,73900.0,68100.0,63800.0,63300.0,66500.0,71300.0,73200.0,64100.0,63300.0,69200.0,65100.0,65400.0,71800.0,66100.0,60900.0,62600.0,63500.0,70400.0,76400.0,69300.0,77900.0,81300.0,77500.0,74800.0,83100.0,73600.0,65900.0,66400.0,70600.0,78500.0,74300.0,65100.0,64200.0,63700.0,66100.0,66500.0,72400.0,67100.0,61800.0,63500.0,71100.0,70400.0,75400.0,63200.0,60300.0,61900.0,62200.0,64600.0,67900.0,65200.0,59000.0,60700.0,61500.0,68400.0,76800.0,61200.0,60400.0,59900.0,62300.0,62500.0,68100.0,63100.0,59100.0,58700.0,61700.0,66200.0,68800.0,60200.0,59400.0,59000.0,67600.0,62700.0,65800.0,63200.0,57100.0,58800.0,59600.0,66300.0,76300.0,62200.0,58500.0,58000.0,60300.0,72400.0,75600.0,64100.0,57300.0,56800.0,59700.0,65100.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[142000.0,119000.0,125000.0,125000.0,123000.0,119000.0,119000.0,119000.0,123000.0,129000.0,128000.0,140000.0,135000.0,112000.0,118000.0,118000.0,116000.0,112000.0,112000.0,112000.0,116000.0,122000.0,120000.0,132000.0,128000.0,106000.0,112000.0,112000.0,110000.0,106000.0,106000.0,106000.0,110000.0,115000.0,114000.0,125000.0,123000.0,103000.0,108000.0,108000.0,106000.0,103000.0,103000.0,103000.0,106000.0,111000.0,110000.0,121000.0,137000.0,114000.0,125000.0,132000.0,126000.0,114000.0,114000.0,114000.0,118000.0,124000.0,122000.0,138000.0,128000.0,106000.0,112000.0,112000.0,110000.0,106000.0,106000.0,106000.0,110000.0,115000.0,114000.0,125000.0,142000.0,119000.0,148000.0,140000.0,133000.0,119000.0,119000.0,119000.0,123000.0,144000.0,128000.0,140000.0,118000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,103000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,103000.0,108000.0,107000.0,117000.0,126000.0,106000.0,112000.0,112000.0,126000.0,106000.0,106000.0,106000.0,110000.0,115000.0,114000.0,124000.0,112000.0,95000.0,100000.0,100000.0,98000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,98000.0,103000.0,102000.0,112000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[41000.0,37800.0,42700.0,40200.0,43900.0,44200.0,46000.0,43000.0,42200.0,40600.0,41400.0,37400.0,42300.0,37200.0,42000.0,39600.0,42000.0,44900.0,43100.0,42800.0,41600.0,39200.0,39200.0,37200.0,40100.0,36700.0,39400.0,39800.0,40200.0,42500.0,44200.0,40500.0,40200.0,40200.0,37100.0,37400.0,38400.0,35400.0,39100.0,39500.0,44300.0,41000.0,42200.0,39800.0,39500.0,37600.0,38000.0,35000.0,36300.0,35900.0,51400.0,53700.0,51900.0,48400.0,45600.0,41600.0,37700.0,37700.0,38000.0,34800.0,39200.0,34100.0,38900.0,37000.0,39600.0,42800.0,42300.0,39200.0,38100.0,37000.0,35200.0,35100.0,37200.0,34000.0,39500.0,36500.0,44800.0,50900.0,46200.0,38700.0,37600.0,36100.0,36100.0,33600.0,36400.0,32600.0,36400.0,34700.0,37100.0,39700.0,42000.0,36700.0,35700.0,35700.0,32900.0,32900.0,34000.0,32000.0,36100.0,33300.0,35700.0,38900.0,38100.0,36000.0,34700.0,38100.0,37600.0,31600.0,34600.0,31000.0,34700.0,33000.0,37100.0,40300.0,38100.0,35300.0,33300.0,33300.0,31400.0,31000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[112000.0,93000.0,104000.0,97000.0,102000.0,93000.0,90000.0,92000.0,97000.0,99000.0,101000.0,103000.0,103000.0,99000.0,101000.0,101000.0,102000.0,98000.0,94000.0,90000.0,100000.0,103000.0,100000.0,106000.0,105000.0,101000.0,105000.0,101000.0,108000.0,98000.0,96000.0,94000.0,102000.0,104000.0,104000.0,107000.0,111000.0,104000.0,114000.0,109000.0,109000.0,105000.0,98000.0,99000.0,107000.0,110000.0,111000.0,113000.0,102000.0,96000.0,139000.0,155000.0,144000.0,113000.0,98000.0,94000.0,98000.0,102000.0,101000.0,110000.0,98000.0,95000.0,100000.0,95000.0,102000.0,94000.0,88000.0,89000.0,96000.0,99000.0,98000.0,103000.0,92000.0,86000.0,94000.0,89000.0,93000.0,86000.0,83000.0,84000.0,88000.0,91000.0,93000.0,94000.0,87000.0,81000.0,87000.0,82000.0,88000.0,82000.0,77000.0,77000.0,83000.0,86000.0,85000.0,90000.0,83000.0,77000.0,83000.0,79000.0,91000.0,77000.0,74000.0,74000.0,78000.0,81000.0,81000.0,85000.0,81000.0,73000.0,125000.0,84000.0,133000.0,81000.0,71000.0,69000.0,75000.0,77000.0,88000.0,81000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[48200.0,43100.0,42400.0,50800.0,44700.0,39600.0,38900.0,42000.0,46100.0,48900.0,51300.0,54600.0,57500.0,46300.0,44700.0,49600.0,44500.0,39200.0,38600.0,41900.0,45500.0,48700.0,50900.0,56400.0,49800.0,45000.0,43900.0,47900.0,43200.0,38400.0,37800.0,41300.0,45700.0,49100.0,56800.0,55900.0,47900.0,43500.0,42800.0,48600.0,44100.0,39000.0,38200.0,41800.0,45600.0,48900.0,51400.0,52700.0,53800.0,47700.0,50800.0,52600.0,49300.0,43900.0,42600.0,46400.0,50900.0,62500.0,55700.0,58900.0,55400.0,49100.0,49700.0,53300.0,58800.0,50200.0,46900.0,49700.0,53600.0,55900.0,56500.0,59300.0,56200.0,50300.0,50900.0,55100.0,64500.0,54000.0,48400.0,50800.0,54700.0,57100.0,58200.0,59700.0,57400.0,51100.0,50700.0,55600.0,51000.0,44900.0,50000.0,48500.0,51800.0,55200.0,57000.0,58100.0,57600.0,51900.0,51200.0,57300.0,52400.0,46200.0,44800.0,48600.0,52900.0,56000.0,58000.0,61000.0,58900.0,52800.0,52300.0,58600.0,53700.0,47200.0,45700.0,49400.0,53800.0,57000.0,59100.0,62300.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4700.0,4700.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4500.0,4500.0,4300.0,4800.0,5200.0,4900.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4500.0,4500.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4200.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[76800.0,70100.0,65400.0,62800.0,66800.0,72100.0,74800.0,68100.0,60100.0,61400.0,68100.0,81500.0,76200.0,69600.0,64900.0,62300.0,66300.0,71600.0,74300.0,67600.0,59700.0,61000.0,67600.0,80900.0,75100.0,68600.0,64000.0,61400.0,65300.0,70500.0,73200.0,66600.0,58800.0,60100.0,66600.0,79700.0,74000.0,67600.0,63000.0,60500.0,64400.0,69500.0,72100.0,65600.0,57900.0,59200.0,65600.0,78500.0,74600.0,68100.0,79400.0,71900.0,69400.0,71400.0,76300.0,67500.0,58400.0,59600.0,66100.0,87000.0,77500.0,67500.0,61100.0,58700.0,62400.0,67400.0,69900.0,63700.0,56200.0,57400.0,63700.0,76200.0,72300.0,63500.0,59300.0,56900.0,60500.0,65300.0,67800.0,61700.0,54400.0,55600.0,61700.0,73800.0,68700.0,61500.0,57400.0,55100.0,58600.0,63200.0,65600.0,59700.0,52700.0,53800.0,59700.0,71500.0,65100.0,59400.0,55500.0,53200.0,56600.0,61100.0,63400.0,57700.0,51000.0,52100.0,57700.0,69100.0,63400.0,57900.0,54000.0,51900.0,55200.0,59600.0,61800.0,56300.0,49600.0,50700.0,56300.0,67300.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[15100.0,13900.0,14300.0,13600.0,13200.0,12900.0,13400.0,13000.0,12700.0,14500.0,13900.0,15700.0,14500.0,13200.0,13500.0,12900.0,12600.0,12400.0,12800.0,12300.0,12100.0,13700.0,13200.0,14900.0,13700.0,12400.0,12800.0,12100.0,11900.0,11700.0,12200.0,11700.0,11400.0,13100.0,12600.0,14300.0,13200.0,12100.0,12400.0,11900.0,11600.0,11400.0,11900.0,11300.0,11200.0,12800.0,12300.0,13900.0,14500.0,13700.0,15300.0,14900.0,14600.0,14200.0,13800.0,13400.0,13200.0,14700.0,14100.0,15700.0,14100.0,12800.0,13200.0,12500.0,12100.0,11900.0,12400.0,11800.0,11600.0,13100.0,12600.0,14200.0,13400.0,12200.0,12700.0,12000.0,11700.0,11500.0,12100.0,11600.0,11900.0,15100.0,13700.0,14600.0,12900.0,11800.0,12200.0,11600.0,11300.0,11100.0,11600.0,11000.0,10900.0,12400.0,11900.0,13500.0,12500.0,11400.0,11800.0,11200.0,11000.0,10800.0,11300.0,10800.0,10600.0,12100.0,11600.0,13200.0,12200.0,11200.0,11500.0,10900.0,10700.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10300.0,11800.0,11300.0,12900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[17600.0,16000.0,16320.0,15680.0,15520.0,15200.0,14720.0,14720.0,15680.0,16480.0,16320.0,16800.0,16500.0,15000.0,15300.0,14700.0,14550.0,14250.0,13800.0,13800.0,14700.0,15450.0,15300.0,15750.0,15400.0,14000.0,14280.0,13720.0,13580.0,13300.0,12880.0,12880.0,13720.0,14420.0,14280.0,14700.0,14300.0,13000.0,13260.0,12740.0,12610.0,12350.0,11960.0,11960.0,12740.0,13390.0,13260.0,13650.0,14850.0,13500.0,13770.0,16000.0,13100.0,12825.0,12420.0,12420.0,13230.0,13905.0,13770.0,14175.0,13200.0,12000.0,12240.0,11760.0,11640.0,11400.0,11040.0,11040.0,11760.0,12360.0,12240.0,12600.0,12100.0,11000.0,11220.0,10780.0,10670.0,10450.0,10120.0,10120.0,10780.0,11330.0,11220.0,11550.0,11000.0,10000.0,10200.0,9800.0,9700.0,9500.0,9200.0,9200.0,9800.0,10300.0,10200.0,10500.0,9900.0,9000.0,9180.0,8820.0,8730.0,8550.0,8280.0,8280.0,8820.0,9270.0,9180.0,9450.0,9020.0,8200.0,8364.0,8036.0,7954.0,7790.0,7544.0,7544.0,8036.0,8446.0,8364.0,8610.0]}},{"title":"USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[14542,13796,14546,13563,13585,12396,11160,11432,10995,15433,14325,14919,15836,13168,16223,29398,16640,16449,18321,13237,12167,18521,15776,10465,9928,8934,12090,17745,13874,11673,12827,12017,11129,12170,10211,11868,12167,13430,13566,12770,16239,16000,15151,15490,12080,12482,12454,13127,16917,11084,40507,263567,32560,23049,19807,13434,12855,12719,12786,19103,20921,16203,18208,25022,16589,15487,16867,12341,11078,10147,9404,9270,11932,12701,15145,12469,20626,28476,15946,19940,13754,12423,12286,15368,16022,13287,18720,14965,15201,13932,16803,16737,13682,30287,14976,14244,18032,13180,13374,16253,14797,23994,15415,37282,12534,12374,11829,10891,11669,10191,12066,11097,11014,12982,11448,10050,8794,11260,11320,10509],"flat_reference_value":16975.191976035,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[21000.0,19500.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,25000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,35000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,180000.0,900000.0,130000.0,70000.0,55000.0,48000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,33000.0,32000.0,38000.0,45000.0,42000.0,38000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,42000.0,48000.0,45000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[21500.0,19800.0,20400.0,19600.0,20200.0,19100.0,20500.0,19700.0,18900.0,19500.0,21200.0,19400.0,20800.0,19200.0,20600.0,22500.0,20900.0,19500.0,21000.0,20400.0,19800.0,26500.0,36000.0,22800.0,22400.0,20500.0,23800.0,22100.0,24500.0,19800.0,20200.0,19600.0,18800.0,19400.0,20100.0,19000.0,20600.0,22500.0,21200.0,20100.0,23400.0,20500.0,21400.0,20800.0,19700.0,20900.0,20300.0,19900.0,26500.0,22400.0,195000.0,540000.0,78000.0,46000.0,33000.0,27500.0,25000.0,26200.0,25800.0,27400.0,31500.0,34000.0,27800.0,29500.0,25600.0,22800.0,23500.0,22900.0,21800.0,22400.0,21500.0,20800.0,22600.0,23900.0,25800.0,22400.0,32500.0,38000.0,27500.0,24800.0,22600.0,21900.0,21200.0,20500.0,21800.0,19900.0,23200.0,20800.0,20400.0,19600.0,20500.0,20100.0,19200.0,25400.0,22800.0,20600.0,28500.0,24800.0,23600.0,25200.0,22900.0,34500.0,38000.0,56000.0,41000.0,29500.0,21800.0,19800.0,20400.0,18500.0,19600.0,19200.0,18900.0,23500.0,19400.0,18600.0,17900.0,18400.0,18100.0,17800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[39500.0,37200.0,38100.0,36400.0,38900.0,35800.0,37400.0,36100.0,35200.0,36800.0,38400.0,37900.0,39100.0,36800.0,38500.0,42100.0,40300.0,39200.0,38100.0,37400.0,36900.0,48200.0,61500.0,44300.0,43100.0,39800.0,41200.0,44500.0,43200.0,38900.0,39700.0,44100.0,41800.0,39200.0,38700.0,37500.0,41200.0,38100.0,39400.0,38800.0,42100.0,40500.0,39800.0,38200.0,37100.0,38600.0,41500.0,39200.0,43800.0,42100.0,185000.0,1420000.0,245000.0,128000.0,76000.0,58500.0,52100.0,49300.0,47200.0,45800.0,53200.0,58400.0,51100.0,54800.0,48200.0,44300.0,42100.0,41500.0,39200.0,40800.0,41200.0,38900.0,42500.0,44100.0,45300.0,42800.0,82000.0,124000.0,81000.0,56000.0,45200.0,42100.0,41500.0,39800.0,43200.0,38900.0,40500.0,39100.0,41800.0,39400.0,42300.0,40100.0,38600.0,46200.0,44100.0,41500.0,48200.0,44500.0,43800.0,45100.0,47200.0,78500.0,115000.0,94000.0,62000.0,48300.0,43500.0,41200.0,43500.0,41000.0,42200.0,40800.0,41500.0,39800.0,41200.0,40500.0,39200.0,40800.0,41100.0,39900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[19000.0,17500.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,18000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17500.0,16000.0,16500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,15000.0,15500.0,60000.0,420000.0,75000.0,35000.0,25000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,18000.0,19000.0,16500.0,17000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,15000.0,17000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,36000.0,33000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,32000.0,33000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,30000.0,28000.0,170000.0,420000.0,80000.0,55000.0,42000.0,36000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,32000.0,38000.0,30000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,36000.0,40000.0,40000.0,32000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[26000.0,25000.0,26500.0,25000.0,23500.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,24500.0,25500.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25500.0,26000.0,26500.0,25000.0,26500.0,27500.0,28000.0,29500.0,36000.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,34000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,22000.0,20500.0,21500.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,21000.0,20500.0,20500.0,21500.0,22500.0,22000.0,20500.0,34000.0,30000.0,240000.0,1600000.0,300000.0,120000.0,85000.0,75000.0,40000.0,30000.0,26000.0,23000.0,60000.0,45000.0,32000.0,29000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24500.0,23500.0,22500.0,23500.0,22500.0,21500.0,23000.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25500.0,24000.0,23500.0,22000.0,20500.0,20500.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,22000.0,21500.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20500.0,21500.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,23000.0,25500.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4200.0,3900.0,4300.0,4100.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,3800.0,4400.0,4100.0,4500.0,4700.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,5800.0,7200.0,9400.0,6200.0,4800.0,4400.0,5200.0,6100.0,5500.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,4200.0,4700.0,4300.0,4800.0,5100.0,5600.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,5400.0,5200.0,5500.0,4900.0,5400.0,5600.0,125000.0,385000.0,112000.0,34000.0,18500.0,12800.0,10500.0,9800.0,10200.0,8900.0,9200.0,8400.0,8800.0,9100.0,8700.0,8900.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,7900.0,8100.0,7200.0,7800.0,7400.0,7600.0,7400.0,7800.0,8100.0,8300.0,8000.0,7600.0,7500.0,7700.0,6800.0,7300.0,6800.0,7100.0,7000.0,7400.0,7700.0,7500.0,7600.0,7200.0,7800.0,8300.0,7600.0,7900.0,7400.0,7600.0,8100.0,9300.0,12500.0,18400.0,16200.0,13800.0,9800.0,8400.0,7700.0,8000.0,7400.0,7800.0,7600.0,7900.0,8200.0,8600.0,8300.0,7900.0,7700.0,7600.0,7100.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[37200.0,34800.0,38100.0,36900.0,41300.0,39200.0,43800.0,38700.0,36100.0,37400.0,40200.0,36800.0,35100.0,33200.0,36400.0,35200.0,38300.0,37100.0,41900.0,46200.0,35800.0,34900.0,38100.0,35200.0,33100.0,31200.0,34300.0,33100.0,35200.0,33400.0,37100.0,35200.0,33100.0,36200.0,35100.0,32300.0,31100.0,29200.0,32100.0,31200.0,33200.0,32100.0,35100.0,33200.0,31100.0,32300.0,33100.0,31200.0,32200.0,33100.0,482000.0,3420000.0,212000.0,67400.0,48100.0,41200.0,38300.0,37200.0,35400.0,34100.0,32300.0,29400.0,36200.0,40300.0,33100.0,32200.0,36100.0,32100.0,30200.0,31100.0,33200.0,31100.0,29100.0,27200.0,30100.0,31200.0,29100.0,28200.0,31200.0,30100.0,29200.0,30300.0,30100.0,29100.0,28100.0,30200.0,29100.0,30300.0,29200.0,28100.0,31200.0,33100.0,30200.0,36200.0,34100.0,30300.0,31200.0,29300.0,45200.0,33100.0,32100.0,41200.0,95400.0,56200.0,51300.0,55400.0,38100.0,34200.0,32100.0,43200.0,38100.0,31200.0,30300.0,33100.0,35200.0,33100.0,36200.0,33100.0,35300.0,32200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2600.0,3400.0,2500.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2400.0,3600.0,3300.0,2900.0,3100.0,2700.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2600.0,3200.0,180000.0,850000.0,180000.0,55000.0,26000.0,16000.0,13000.0,11000.0,9500.0,8500.0,7500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4700.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4400.0,4600.0,5000.0,5500.0,8000.0,28000.0,65000.0,48000.0,32000.0,16000.0,8500.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2050.0,2150.0,2300.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,1950.0,2600.0,2350.0,1900.0,1950.0,2050.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2250.0,2050.0,1750.0,1850.0,1950.0,2100.0,1900.0,1950.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,2150.0,2000.0,1650.0,1900.0,2000.0,2150.0,2050.0,2100.0,2250.0,2150.0,2050.0,2150.0,2950.0,3450.0,2650.0,7000.0,6000.0,16000.0,65000.0,26000.0,17500.0,12000.0,9000.0,6000.0,4800.0,4300.0,3700.0,4200.0,4400.0,5700.0,5500.0,4400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,5100.0,4700.0,3900.0,4300.0,5100.0,4900.0,4400.0,4500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4900.0,4600.0,3900.0,4500.0,4700.0,4900.0,4600.0,4800.0,6300.0,5900.0,5300.0,5000.0,5500.0,5100.0,4300.0,4900.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,8600.0,7900.0,8300.0,6300.0,6100.0,7900.0,5900.0,6000.0,5700.0,6300.0,5600.0,5900.0,8500.0,6300.0,5500.0,5100.0,5700.0,5300.0,4500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,42000.0,85000.0,130000.0,75000.0,44000.0,70000.0,62000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,49000.0,50000.0,47000.0,58000.0,54000.0,310000.0,1080000.0,590000.0,330000.0,215000.0,155000.0,122000.0,98000.0,80000.0,69000.0,62000.0,56000.0,52000.0,50000.0,78000.0,70000.0,48000.0,46000.0,49000.0,51000.0,52000.0,49000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,44000.0,46000.0,47000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,55000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,70000.0,260000.0,360000.0,210000.0,300000.0,250000.0,150000.0,130000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,38000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6800.0,5900.0,6600.0,6200.0,7200.0,8100.0,9000.0,8500.0,6900.0,7800.0,6900.0,6100.0,7800.0,6800.0,7500.0,7800.0,15500.0,10500.0,9200.0,8900.0,7600.0,9600.0,8200.0,7100.0,7000.0,6200.0,6700.0,6400.0,7200.0,7900.0,8700.0,8400.0,7100.0,8200.0,7200.0,7900.0,8200.0,7200.0,7600.0,7300.0,8700.0,16800.0,10500.0,9600.0,8500.0,9900.0,9300.0,22500.0,12500.0,9800.0,178000.0,118000.0,47000.0,22000.0,16500.0,15200.0,14500.0,16800.0,28500.0,15500.0,22500.0,27500.0,20500.0,18800.0,21200.0,19500.0,21800.0,22600.0,27200.0,24100.0,20500.0,24500.0,22500.0,29500.0,26000.0,22500.0,23800.0,21500.0,23000.0,285000.0,52000.0,31500.0,28500.0,46500.0,31500.0,26500.0,83000.0,61000.0,118000.0,41000.0,20500.0,16500.0,36500.0,23500.0,20500.0,16000.0,12500.0,10800.0,11600.0,10900.0,13200.0,14700.0,17100.0,15900.0,13100.0,15400.0,14100.0,12200.0,19500.0,17100.0,19800.0,16400.0,18200.0,24500.0,20100.0,19400.0,17600.0,19300.0,17400.0,15800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,32000.0,90000.0,24000.0,12000.0,8000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3000.0,3000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[880.0,950.0,1050.0,1220.0,1350.0,1480.0,1630.0,1540.0,1360.0,1440.0,1790.0,1210.0,1000.0,1120.0,1260.0,1420.0,1590.0,1760.0,1940.0,1850.0,1680.0,1610.0,1820.0,1320.0,1130.0,1260.0,1440.0,1670.0,1920.0,2130.0,2350.0,2220.0,2000.0,1920.0,2280.0,1640.0,1420.0,1580.0,1810.0,2090.0,2390.0,2650.0,2930.0,2800.0,2560.0,2460.0,2850.0,2060.0,1860.0,1770.0,9250.0,165000.0,74500.0,27800.0,12400.0,7300.0,5650.0,5250.0,4950.0,4400.0,2540.0,2180.0,2420.0,2930.0,2610.0,2890.0,3320.0,3050.0,2730.0,2510.0,2700.0,2140.0,2060.0,2180.0,2390.0,2670.0,2880.0,3060.0,3380.0,3150.0,2870.0,2710.0,2930.0,2340.0,2240.0,2260.0,2510.0,2810.0,3020.0,3250.0,3580.0,3380.0,3080.0,2950.0,3190.0,2590.0,2690.0,3380.0,4250.0,5210.0,5820.0,6440.0,7360.0,8120.0,7610.0,9840.0,8950.0,6720.0,6140.0,7410.0,6890.0,6240.0,5820.0,5520.0,5810.0,5340.0,4940.0,4650.0,4310.0,3820.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8200.0,9000.0,8500.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,8200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7600.0,7100.0,7400.0,7800.0,8800.0,7500.0,7300.0,7200.0,7400.0,7000.0,6900.0,6800.0,7000.0,6500.0,6900.0,6700.0,7000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6400.0,6200.0,6500.0,6200.0,6000.0,6100.0,5800.0,6200.0,6000.0,6500.0,6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,6800.0,7200.0,6500.0,6200.0,6500.0,6200.0,38000.0,160000.0,47000.0,18000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,9000.0,10000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6700.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,6600.0,6500.0,6700.0,6900.0,6400.0,6200.0,6500.0,6100.0,6500.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6200.0,6300.0,6100.0,6400.0,6200.0,6000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6800.0,7500.0,8000.0,15000.0,22000.0,18000.0,12000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6600.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6800.0,6400.0,6200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1300.0,1200.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,2500.0,40000.0,18000.0,8000.0,4500.0,3000.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1600.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0]}},{"title":"Get Happy!! (Elvis Costello album)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Get Happy!! (Elvis Costello album)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3992,3742,3694,3602,3684,3187,3565,3887,3519,3505,3569,3120,3978,3627,4326,3589,3436,3756,3621,3346,2961,2965,3064,2914,3470,3637,4227,3850,3902,3318,4245,3545,3536,4519,3715,3179,3668,3276,3495,3486,3289,3237,3749,3623,3076,3222,3290,2874,3570,4756,4113,5467,5383,3513,3677,4085,3607,4050,4417,3997,3772,3988,4196,4009,3798,3365,3497,3870,3310,3556,3284,2951,5989,4306,3281,3327,3213,3267,3965,3757,3086,2878,3051,2854,3409,4255,4876,3182,3360,3079,3360,3368,3065,2840,3244,3068,3746,3573,3668,3243,2854,2922,3191,3373,3444,2912,3030,3100,3461,3635,3304,3002,3028,3163,3199,3589,3232,3262,3071,2836],"flat_reference_value":17099.504892287314,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2300.0,2050.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2050.0,2150.0,2200.0,2100.0,2250.0,2150.0,2000.0,2150.0,2000.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0,2150.0,2300.0,2200.0,2150.0,2250.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2050.0,2150.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,3600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2800.0,2450.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2250.0,2200.0,2300.0,2250.0,2400.0,2450.0,2300.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0,2450.0,4700.0,3000.0,2550.0,2500.0,2350.0,2450.0,2400.0,2300.0,2550.0,2350.0,2200.0,2350.0,2250.0,2350.0,2250.0,2300.0,2200.0,2350.0,2300.0,2500.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0,2600.0,2250.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2250.0,2350.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2150.0,2050.0,2200.0,2500.0,2450.0,2200.0,2250.0,2200.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2250.0,2100.0,2000.0,2150.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2150.0,2250.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,1950.0,2200.0,3200.0,2350.0,2100.0,2200.0,2150.0,2250.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,1950.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[3340.0,2910.0,3080.0,2890.0,2960.0,2840.0,2990.0,3020.0,2810.0,2930.0,2850.0,2970.0,3140.0,2720.0,2980.0,2860.0,3010.0,3090.0,3120.0,2970.0,2790.0,2910.0,2840.0,2920.0,3090.0,2680.0,2950.0,2810.0,2880.0,2790.0,3460.0,3040.0,2920.0,3410.0,3120.0,2980.0,3110.0,2710.0,2960.0,2820.0,2890.0,2760.0,2940.0,2990.0,2780.0,2910.0,2870.0,2950.0,3210.0,3560.0,3140.0,3190.0,3260.0,3050.0,3110.0,3150.0,3280.0,3340.0,3390.0,3120.0,3180.0,2790.0,2990.0,2840.0,2880.0,2730.0,2850.0,2910.0,2960.0,2870.0,2760.0,2820.0,3270.0,2740.0,2790.0,2630.0,2680.0,2540.0,2660.0,2710.0,2520.0,2610.0,2530.0,2590.0,2730.0,2580.0,2640.0,2460.0,2510.0,2440.0,2560.0,2530.0,2380.0,2470.0,2390.0,2450.0,2590.0,2310.0,2460.0,2340.0,2410.0,2330.0,2450.0,2960.0,2490.0,2440.0,2570.0,2430.0,2520.0,2210.0,2390.0,2290.0,2420.0,2640.0,2730.0,2480.0,2310.0,2370.0,2280.0,2350.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2420.0,2610.0,2350.0,2280.0,2190.0,2110.0,2240.0,2300.0,2150.0,2230.0,2340.0,2180.0,2310.0,2480.0,2290.0,2170.0,2120.0,2040.0,2180.0,2250.0,2090.0,2160.0,2210.0,2050.0,2190.0,2350.0,2140.0,2080.0,2020.0,1990.0,3120.0,2410.0,2130.0,2270.0,2110.0,1980.0,2150.0,2320.0,2090.0,1970.0,1940.0,1880.0,2010.0,1960.0,1890.0,1990.0,2050.0,1920.0,2100.0,3290.0,2580.0,2690.0,2430.0,2180.0,2120.0,2050.0,1970.0,2040.0,2130.0,1950.0,2060.0,2190.0,2020.0,1940.0,1880.0,1820.0,1910.0,1870.0,1790.0,1860.0,1930.0,1810.0,2280.0,2140.0,1960.0,1880.0,1820.0,1740.0,1810.0,1780.0,1690.0,1770.0,1820.0,1710.0,1840.0,1980.0,1790.0,1710.0,1660.0,1610.0,1690.0,1650.0,1580.0,1660.0,1720.0,1600.0,1730.0,1850.0,1680.0,1620.0,1570.0,1510.0,1590.0,1560.0,1490.0,1550.0,1630.0,1520.0,1640.0,1780.0,1600.0,1530.0,1480.0,1420.0,1500.0,1460.0,1390.0,1470.0,1540.0,1450.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[2750.0,2600.0,2700.0,2650.0,2600.0,2500.0,2550.0,2500.0,2450.0,2550.0,2450.0,2350.0,2500.0,2400.0,2450.0,2400.0,2350.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2300.0,2200.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,2150.0,2050.0,1950.0,2100.0,2000.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2350.0,2150.0,2250.0,2150.0,1950.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1750.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1680.0,1650.0,1700.0,1680.0,1600.0,1720.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1620.0,1560.0,1580.0,1550.0,1520.0,1600.0,1560.0,1480.0,1600.0,1530.0,1570.0,1530.0,1500.0,1450.0,1470.0,1450.0,1420.0,1480.0,1450.0,1380.0,1500.0,1430.0,1470.0,1430.0,1400.0,1350.0,1380.0,1360.0,1330.0,1400.0,1370.0,1300.0,1420.0,1360.0,1400.0,1370.0,1340.0,1300.0,1320.0,1300.0,1280.0,1340.0,1310.0,1250.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[3900.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3700.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3500.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2550.0,2850.0,2650.0,2450.0,2500.0,2400.0,2350.0,2250.0,2250.0,2200.0,2350.0,2400.0,2400.0,2700.0,2600.0,2450.0,2500.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,4600.0,2600.0,2450.0,2450.0,2350.0,2650.0,2500.0,2350.0,2400.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2200.0,2150.0,2300.0,2350.0,2300.0,2600.0,2500.0,2950.0,3200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2500.0,3100.0,2550.0,2800.0,2600.0,2400.0,2450.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2150.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2550.0,2900.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2350.0,2300.0,2550.0,2450.0,2350.0,2400.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2250.0,2150.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2450.0,2250.0,2300.0,2450.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2450.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1245.0,1028.0,1173.0,1065.0,1118.0,1012.0,975.0,1042.0,1095.0,1348.0,1125.0,945.0,1145.0,935.0,1038.0,972.0,1015.0,928.0,884.0,952.0,987.0,1068.0,1012.0,845.0,1180.0,972.0,1095.0,1035.0,1048.0,990.0,2100.0,1420.0,1085.0,1130.0,1065.0,880.0,1075.0,862.0,1010.0,920.0,965.0,875.0,840.0,905.0,945.0,1025.0,975.0,795.0,1165.0,1285.0,1330.0,1240.0,1255.0,985.0,920.0,995.0,1040.0,1105.0,1070.0,880.0,1020.0,815.0,960.0,870.0,915.0,830.0,795.0,855.0,895.0,970.0,925.0,740.0,1105.0,770.0,885.0,840.0,865.0,785.0,750.0,810.0,860.0,905.0,875.0,705.0,905.0,725.0,850.0,775.0,815.0,740.0,710.0,765.0,795.0,860.0,825.0,665.0,885.0,730.0,825.0,755.0,790.0,720.0,695.0,745.0,775.0,840.0,805.0,650.0,855.0,680.0,795.0,725.0,760.0,690.0,670.0,715.0,745.0,805.0,775.0,630.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[742.0,803.0,769.0,711.0,688.0,641.0,612.0,655.0,704.0,758.0,731.0,826.0,791.0,812.0,734.0,692.0,663.0,618.0,594.0,607.0,659.0,702.0,685.0,763.0,728.0,771.0,709.0,667.0,642.0,611.0,1148.0,736.0,681.0,912.0,834.0,802.0,786.0,823.0,707.0,674.0,649.0,612.0,598.0,616.0,671.0,719.0,698.0,774.0,921.0,887.0,853.0,892.0,781.0,706.0,679.0,712.0,1043.0,968.0,826.0,818.0,777.0,806.0,721.0,684.0,659.0,626.0,604.0,617.0,673.0,716.0,692.0,758.0,884.0,819.0,738.0,697.0,671.0,634.0,612.0,624.0,668.0,711.0,687.0,749.0,716.0,733.0,674.0,641.0,618.0,586.0,567.0,579.0,628.0,669.0,648.0,708.0,684.0,701.0,647.0,615.0,592.0,563.0,545.0,556.0,601.0,641.0,622.0,678.0,651.0,668.0,618.0,589.0,567.0,539.0,521.0,533.0,575.0,612.0,594.0,647.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[185.0,180.0,190.0,175.0,180.0,170.0,165.0,170.0,180.0,190.0,185.0,175.0,180.0,175.0,185.0,170.0,175.0,165.0,160.0,165.0,175.0,185.0,180.0,170.0,175.0,170.0,180.0,170.0,175.0,170.0,520.0,300.0,220.0,330.0,230.0,195.0,190.0,185.0,195.0,180.0,185.0,175.0,170.0,175.0,185.0,195.0,190.0,180.0,200.0,900.0,260.0,230.0,220.0,210.0,205.0,210.0,220.0,230.0,225.0,215.0,210.0,205.0,215.0,200.0,205.0,195.0,190.0,195.0,205.0,215.0,210.0,200.0,450.0,240.0,220.0,210.0,215.0,205.0,200.0,205.0,215.0,225.0,220.0,210.0,200.0,195.0,230.0,190.0,195.0,185.0,180.0,185.0,195.0,205.0,200.0,190.0,180.0,175.0,185.0,170.0,175.0,165.0,160.0,240.0,175.0,185.0,260.0,180.0,170.0,300.0,175.0,160.0,165.0,350.0,250.0,155.0,165.0,175.0,170.0,160.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1050.0,1250.0,1380.0,1850.0,1200.0,1000.0,950.0,980.0,1020.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,920.0,1080.0,900.0,880.0,940.0,900.0,1650.0,1150.0,950.0,980.0,890.0,850.0,880.0,1050.0,920.0,850.0,900.0,860.0,910.0,880.0,950.0,1750.0,1350.0,980.0,920.0,1100.0,940.0,900.0,960.0,910.0,880.0,920.0,950.0,1000.0,900.0,870.0,950.0,1650.0,1500.0,1420.0,1300.0,1150.0,1080.0,1100.0,2050.0,1600.0,1180.0,1050.0,1020.0,1250.0,1080.0,1020.0,1100.0,1000.0,980.0,1030.0,1050.0,1550.0,1200.0,1020.0,980.0,1180.0,1020.0,970.0,1010.0,960.0,1150.0,1080.0,930.0,970.0,900.0,860.0,880.0,1400.0,910.0,860.0,900.0,940.0,880.0,850.0,900.0,880.0,830.0,800.0,820.0,980.0,840.0,800.0,860.0,830.0,810.0,1250.0,1100.0,950.0,860.0,820.0,800.0,970.0,830.0,790.0,820.0,780.0,800.0,760.0,790.0,810.0,750.0,720.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[764.0,738.0,822.0,908.0,895.0,778.0,681.0,694.0,810.0,847.0,793.0,635.0,758.0,729.0,812.0,901.0,876.0,768.0,887.0,766.0,813.0,824.0,797.0,628.0,776.0,747.0,832.0,925.0,899.0,788.0,690.0,701.0,820.0,1241.0,1008.0,655.0,728.0,701.0,782.0,866.0,844.0,739.0,648.0,658.0,769.0,805.0,754.0,614.0,766.0,751.0,1190.0,3298.0,2655.0,1168.0,819.0,742.0,824.0,1044.0,927.0,668.0,701.0,673.0,752.0,833.0,811.0,709.0,635.0,615.0,739.0,774.0,724.0,590.0,968.0,866.0,772.0,855.0,833.0,729.0,652.0,631.0,759.0,795.0,744.0,607.0,681.0,654.0,731.0,809.0,789.0,690.0,605.0,616.0,718.0,753.0,704.0,574.0,662.0,636.0,711.0,786.0,767.0,670.0,588.0,599.0,698.0,732.0,684.0,558.0,643.0,617.0,690.0,1149.0,964.0,651.0,570.0,582.0,677.0,711.0,664.0,542.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[486.0,642.0,537.0,503.0,521.0,554.0,588.0,651.0,574.0,539.0,581.0,532.0,451.0,574.0,498.0,467.0,489.0,519.0,551.0,613.0,532.0,503.0,548.0,496.0,443.0,1938.0,702.0,505.0,524.0,558.0,596.0,674.0,575.0,536.0,584.0,525.0,414.0,561.0,472.0,436.0,452.0,484.0,521.0,604.0,503.0,472.0,522.0,468.0,393.0,524.0,356.0,329.0,345.0,391.0,433.0,501.0,454.0,432.0,471.0,428.0,371.0,487.0,411.0,382.0,394.0,431.0,471.0,523.0,481.0,453.0,492.0,441.0,363.0,542.0,433.0,402.0,414.0,453.0,492.0,553.0,502.0,472.0,512.0,462.0,351.0,1516.0,526.0,413.0,434.0,474.0,522.0,605.0,534.0,494.0,552.0,491.0,323.0,467.0,384.0,354.0,364.0,403.0,444.0,521.0,463.0,434.0,474.0,425.0,305.0,443.0,363.0,335.0,347.0,384.0,423.0,483.0,433.0,405.0,451.0,404.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[380.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,340.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,320.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,320.0,310.0,330.0,320.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,310.0,310.0,300.0,330.0,420.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,320.0,310.0,340.0,450.0,350.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,300.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,320.0,310.0,330.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,320.0,310.0,310.0,310.0,320.0,340.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,350.0,350.0,340.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1372.0,1151.0,1378.0,1124.0,1218.0,1004.0,998.0,969.0,1128.0,1246.0,1214.0,1092.0,1299.0,1051.0,1263.0,1077.0,1132.0,944.0,938.0,905.0,1058.0,1184.0,1111.0,1016.0,1202.0,992.0,1246.0,986.0,1058.0,881.0,901.0,850.0,989.0,1113.0,1046.0,956.0,1218.0,990.0,1211.0,982.0,1044.0,888.0,877.0,866.0,994.0,1098.0,1057.0,951.0,1389.0,1112.0,2055.0,1134.0,1172.0,1016.0,1021.0,959.0,1128.0,1246.0,1174.0,1058.0,1119.0,940.0,1156.0,922.0,987.0,827.0,841.0,797.0,936.0,1022.0,991.0,875.0,1112.0,907.0,1135.0,918.0,952.0,822.0,809.0,795.0,904.0,1017.0,966.0,858.0,1726.0,1187.0,1417.0,1038.0,1106.0,942.0,927.0,913.0,1041.0,1162.0,1094.0,1001.0,1279.0,1072.0,1363.0,1056.0,1128.0,947.0,960.0,911.0,1071.0,1538.0,1264.0,1015.0,1984.0,1031.0,1692.0,1019.0,1074.0,926.0,912.0,891.0,1033.0,1129.0,1087.0,978.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[310.0,285.0,300.0,278.0,295.0,320.0,350.0,335.0,305.0,325.0,342.0,380.0,315.0,270.0,285.0,260.0,275.0,300.0,326.0,308.0,280.0,290.0,310.0,348.0,295.0,260.0,270.0,250.0,265.0,290.0,430.0,390.0,320.0,300.0,305.0,340.0,290.0,250.0,265.0,245.0,260.0,280.0,310.0,295.0,275.0,310.0,290.0,325.0,280.0,245.0,270.0,300.0,295.0,310.0,405.0,370.0,315.0,290.0,285.0,320.0,275.0,240.0,255.0,235.0,250.0,270.0,295.0,280.0,260.0,275.0,270.0,305.0,285.0,250.0,270.0,245.0,260.0,285.0,310.0,295.0,270.0,290.0,280.0,315.0,270.0,235.0,250.0,230.0,245.0,260.0,290.0,275.0,255.0,265.0,260.0,295.0,260.0,230.0,245.0,225.0,240.0,255.0,280.0,265.0,245.0,255.0,250.0,285.0,250.0,220.0,235.0,215.0,230.0,245.0,270.0,255.0,235.0,245.0,240.0,275.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[374.0,357.0,357.0,340.0,333.0,313.0,299.0,306.0,340.0,357.0,357.0,323.0,358.0,341.0,341.0,325.0,319.0,299.0,286.0,293.0,325.0,341.0,341.0,309.0,341.0,326.0,326.0,310.0,304.0,285.0,273.0,279.0,310.0,326.0,326.0,295.0,330.0,315.0,315.0,300.0,294.0,276.0,264.0,270.0,300.0,315.0,315.0,285.0,352.0,336.0,336.0,320.0,314.0,294.0,282.0,288.0,320.0,336.0,336.0,304.0,319.0,305.0,305.0,290.0,284.0,267.0,255.0,261.0,290.0,305.0,305.0,276.0,297.0,284.0,284.0,270.0,265.0,248.0,238.0,243.0,270.0,284.0,284.0,257.0,264.0,252.0,252.0,240.0,235.0,221.0,211.0,216.0,240.0,252.0,252.0,228.0,242.0,231.0,231.0,220.0,216.0,202.0,194.0,198.0,220.0,231.0,231.0,209.0,220.0,210.0,210.0,200.0,196.0,184.0,176.0,180.0,200.0,210.0,210.0,190.0]}},{"title":"Honda Beat","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Honda Beat\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[7363,6053,8846,7899,7971,6428,6638,7754,6988,6934,6646,6880,8226,7601,6798,6563,7271,6697,6648,8168,7336,7439,6449,6678,7775,6535,6808,6617,6443,5970,7582,8419,6576,5898,5388,5946,6625,6283,6409,7274,7131,6904,6624,6505,7243,6336,7201,6059,7295,5973,6098,5461,7146,6121,6396,6037,6735,6038,6324,5965,7414,7164,7574,6824,8710,7997,7808,7227,8077,6696,7426,6116,6883,8320,8443,11561,7724,7259,6999,8397,8283,9020,8213,7979,7845,7909,8446,10033,14872,9879,9402,11854,10804,9702,8899,9406,10109,8015,9369,13714,10625,9574,8866,8548,8109,8958,7631,6836,7526,6787,6726,7177,7119,6365,5887,6332,5610,6307,5193,8415],"flat_reference_value":17034.582495284994,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7200.0,6800.0,7500.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,8900.0,8600.0,8100.0,8700.0,7900.0,7600.0,8200.0,7700.0,8600.0,8900.0,9400.0,9100.0,9600.0,9900.0,9100.0,9600.0,8900.0,8500.0,9100.0,8500.0,9500.0,9800.0,10300.0,9900.0,10600.0,11000.0,10200.0,10800.0,9700.0,9300.0,10000.0,9200.0,10300.0,10600.0,11300.0,10900.0,11500.0,11800.0,11000.0,11600.0,10500.0,10000.0,10800.0,10100.0,11200.0,12500.0,13200.0,12800.0,13500.0,14100.0,13000.0,13600.0,12400.0,12000.0,13200.0,12300.0,13900.0,14400.0,15100.0,14700.0,15800.0,16500.0,14900.0,15600.0,14300.0,13700.0,14800.0,13700.0,15100.0,15500.0,16300.0,15900.0,16800.0,17500.0,15800.0,16500.0,15100.0,14600.0,15700.0,14500.0,16200.0,16500.0,17300.0,16800.0,17800.0,18200.0,16900.0,18000.0,16100.0,15500.0,16700.0,15700.0,17300.0,17600.0,18500.0,17800.0,18900.0,19400.0,17900.0,18700.0,17000.0,16300.0,17800.0,16500.0,18300.0,18600.0,19500.0,18800.0,20100.0,20500.0,18800.0,19700.0,18000.0,17300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[12100.0,11350.0,12400.0,12650.0,14200.0,13800.0,14100.0,13950.0,12800.0,12500.0,11700.0,11450.0,12300.0,11200.0,12750.0,12900.0,13450.0,13300.0,13700.0,13600.0,12650.0,12800.0,11950.0,11700.0,12600.0,11400.0,12950.0,13100.0,13650.0,13400.0,14100.0,15600.0,13500.0,13200.0,12300.0,12050.0,12900.0,11800.0,13350.0,13500.0,14050.0,13850.0,14300.0,14450.0,13600.0,14800.0,13100.0,12750.0,13400.0,12450.0,12200.0,13650.0,15200.0,15600.0,16100.0,15950.0,14700.0,14550.0,13800.0,13650.0,14600.0,13400.0,15850.0,15600.0,16700.0,15900.0,16200.0,15850.0,14600.0,14350.0,13600.0,13400.0,14250.0,13100.0,18600.0,16450.0,15500.0,14950.0,15300.0,15100.0,13900.0,13750.0,12950.0,12700.0,13600.0,12400.0,13950.0,14100.0,14650.0,14400.0,14850.0,14600.0,13450.0,13200.0,12400.0,12100.0,12850.0,11950.0,13100.0,13250.0,13800.0,13550.0,13750.0,13500.0,12450.0,12200.0,11450.0,11200.0,11850.0,10750.0,11900.0,11950.0,12400.0,12150.0,12350.0,12100.0,11200.0,10950.0,10350.0,10150.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[11800.0,11200.0,12400.0,12900.0,13500.0,13100.0,13800.0,14200.0,13400.0,12800.0,12500.0,11900.0,12700.0,12300.0,13900.0,14500.0,15100.0,14800.0,15600.0,16200.0,15400.0,16900.0,22100.0,18400.0,15800.0,14900.0,16500.0,17200.0,18100.0,17900.0,19400.0,23500.0,19100.0,17800.0,17200.0,16100.0,16800.0,15900.0,17400.0,18200.0,19000.0,18600.0,20200.0,21100.0,18700.0,17900.0,17300.0,16500.0,17100.0,16800.0,19200.0,24800.0,23900.0,21500.0,21800.0,20700.0,18900.0,18200.0,17900.0,17400.0,18500.0,17800.0,19600.0,19800.0,20500.0,19900.0,21200.0,20400.0,18600.0,18100.0,17300.0,16900.0,17600.0,17100.0,23200.0,20800.0,19300.0,18700.0,19100.0,18400.0,17200.0,16500.0,15800.0,15200.0,16100.0,15400.0,17300.0,17600.0,18200.0,17700.0,18100.0,17500.0,16200.0,15600.0,14900.0,14300.0,15200.0,14800.0,16400.0,16900.0,17400.0,16800.0,17300.0,16700.0,15500.0,14900.0,14200.0,13800.0,14700.0,14100.0,15600.0,16200.0,16800.0,16300.0,16700.0,16100.0,15100.0,14500.0,13900.0,13400.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[12500.0,11800.0,13200.0,13800.0,14300.0,14100.0,14800.0,14600.0,13700.0,13500.0,13000.0,13200.0,14000.0,13300.0,14800.0,15300.0,15900.0,15600.0,16200.0,16000.0,15000.0,14800.0,14300.0,14500.0,15200.0,14300.0,15800.0,16100.0,16700.0,16300.0,17000.0,16800.0,15700.0,15400.0,14900.0,15100.0,15600.0,14700.0,16200.0,16500.0,17100.0,16800.0,17400.0,17200.0,16000.0,15800.0,15300.0,15500.0,16000.0,15200.0,17000.0,19500.0,19800.0,18600.0,18800.0,18300.0,16900.0,16500.0,16000.0,16300.0,16800.0,15700.0,17000.0,17200.0,17500.0,16900.0,17300.0,17000.0,15800.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,15300.0,14200.0,15400.0,15500.0,15800.0,15200.0,15600.0,15300.0,14200.0,14000.0,13500.0,13600.0,13900.0,12900.0,14000.0,14100.0,14400.0,13900.0,14300.0,14000.0,13000.0,12800.0,12400.0,12500.0,12800.0,12000.0,12900.0,13000.0,13300.0,12800.0,13200.0,12900.0,12000.0,11800.0,11400.0,11500.0,11800.0,11000.0,11900.0,12000.0,12300.0,11800.0,12100.0,11900.0,11100.0,10900.0,10600.0,10700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9200.0,8800.0,9300.0,9100.0,9400.0,9300.0,9600.0,9700.0,9000.0,8900.0,8700.0,8900.0,9500.0,8800.0,9400.0,9200.0,9500.0,9400.0,9800.0,9900.0,9100.0,9000.0,8800.0,9000.0,9600.0,8700.0,9300.0,9100.0,9400.0,9200.0,9600.0,9700.0,9000.0,9100.0,8900.0,9100.0,9700.0,8900.0,9500.0,9400.0,9800.0,9600.0,10000.0,10100.0,9400.0,9300.0,9100.0,9400.0,10000.0,9500.0,10200.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11600.0,11500.0,10800.0,10700.0,10600.0,11000.0,11800.0,10900.0,11600.0,11400.0,11600.0,11200.0,11400.0,11300.0,10500.0,10400.0,10200.0,10500.0,10900.0,9900.0,10500.0,10300.0,10500.0,10200.0,10500.0,10500.0,9800.0,9700.0,9500.0,9700.0,10200.0,9300.0,10000.0,9800.0,10100.0,9800.0,10100.0,10100.0,9400.0,9300.0,9100.0,9300.0,9800.0,9100.0,9600.0,9500.0,9800.0,9500.0,9800.0,9800.0,9100.0,9000.0,8800.0,9000.0,9500.0,8700.0,9400.0,9300.0,9600.0,9300.0,9500.0,9500.0,8900.0,8800.0,8600.0,8800.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10600.0,10400.0,11200.0,11800.0,15100.0,11900.0,11700.0,11300.0,10900.0,10600.0,10400.0,10100.0,10500.0,10300.0,11000.0,11500.0,11600.0,14500.0,12000.0,11200.0,10700.0,10400.0,10200.0,9900.0,10300.0,10100.0,10800.0,11300.0,11400.0,11300.0,11200.0,10900.0,10500.0,10300.0,10000.0,9800.0,10400.0,10200.0,10900.0,11400.0,11500.0,11400.0,11300.0,11000.0,10600.0,10400.0,10100.0,9900.0,10500.0,10300.0,14000.0,15500.0,13200.0,12000.0,11800.0,11300.0,10900.0,10700.0,10400.0,10200.0,10800.0,10600.0,11400.0,11900.0,12000.0,19000.0,13500.0,11400.0,11000.0,10800.0,11400.0,11100.0,11300.0,11100.0,17500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12600.0,12400.0,12000.0,11600.0,11400.0,11100.0,10900.0,11700.0,11500.0,12300.0,12800.0,12900.0,12800.0,12700.0,12300.0,11900.0,11700.0,11400.0,11200.0,12100.0,11900.0,12700.0,13200.0,13300.0,13200.0,13100.0,12700.0,12300.0,12100.0,13800.0,12200.0,12500.0,12300.0,13100.0,13600.0,13700.0,13600.0,13500.0,13100.0,12700.0,12500.0,12200.0,12000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2150.0,2080.0,2480.0,2785.0,2910.0,2715.0,3845.0,3560.0,2515.0,2470.0,2235.0,1980.0,2025.0,1990.0,2385.0,2670.0,2795.0,2605.0,2655.0,2540.0,2370.0,2425.0,2140.0,1895.0,1930.0,1915.0,2310.0,2555.0,2680.0,2495.0,2560.0,2430.0,2285.0,2320.0,2050.0,1810.0,2010.0,2005.0,2390.0,2620.0,2810.0,2685.0,5520.0,3545.0,2410.0,2380.0,2175.0,1920.0,2195.0,2230.0,3185.0,3450.0,3310.0,2840.0,2875.0,2755.0,2590.0,2615.0,2360.0,2055.0,2270.0,2290.0,2715.0,2990.0,4235.0,2945.0,3005.0,2850.0,2680.0,2725.0,2410.0,2140.0,2105.0,2115.0,2520.0,2765.0,2905.0,2730.0,2780.0,2640.0,2485.0,2510.0,2240.0,1975.0,2020.0,2010.0,2425.0,2650.0,2785.0,2625.0,2660.0,2535.0,2395.0,3820.0,2610.0,1910.0,1935.0,1965.0,2325.0,2545.0,2670.0,2510.0,2550.0,2435.0,2290.0,2315.0,2060.0,1825.0,3525.0,1890.0,2215.0,2440.0,2560.0,2405.0,2445.0,2330.0,2185.0,2220.0,1965.0,1740.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6842.0,5913.0,5287.0,5631.0,5374.0,5052.0,4826.0,4613.0,4947.0,5238.0,4982.0,5391.0,5874.0,5168.0,5432.0,5726.0,5514.0,5283.0,4968.0,4871.0,5204.0,5538.0,5327.0,5642.0,5918.0,5296.0,5628.0,6143.0,5907.0,5612.0,5318.0,5084.0,5426.0,5813.0,5579.0,5934.0,6247.0,5583.0,6018.0,6432.0,6185.0,5874.0,5543.0,5391.0,5768.0,6126.0,5882.0,6327.0,6284.0,6073.0,8241.0,8617.0,7382.0,6834.0,6526.0,6288.0,6612.0,7043.0,6897.0,7326.0,7612.0,7284.0,7936.0,8624.0,8371.0,8105.0,7743.0,7418.0,7826.0,8532.0,8284.0,8713.0,8194.0,8026.0,10643.0,9382.0,8741.0,8326.0,7918.0,7603.0,8017.0,8426.0,8113.0,8524.0,7832.0,7246.0,7718.0,8324.0,8013.0,7642.0,7226.0,6987.0,7342.0,7731.0,7428.0,7846.0,7312.0,6826.0,7214.0,7743.0,7518.0,7136.0,6782.0,6524.0,6917.0,7238.0,7026.0,7384.0,6924.0,6483.0,6812.0,7326.0,7108.0,6783.0,6427.0,6192.0,6534.0,6843.0,6621.0,6958.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[340.0,360.0,390.0,420.0,720.0,430.0,410.0,385.0,395.0,375.0,365.0,330.0,360.0,380.0,410.0,440.0,460.0,440.0,420.0,400.0,410.0,400.0,380.0,350.0,390.0,410.0,450.0,470.0,500.0,480.0,450.0,430.0,440.0,430.0,410.0,370.0,420.0,440.0,480.0,510.0,540.0,520.0,490.0,470.0,480.0,460.0,440.0,400.0,450.0,470.0,520.0,540.0,560.0,540.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,430.0,540.0,560.0,620.0,660.0,1500.0,700.0,660.0,620.0,640.0,620.0,1200.0,600.0,600.0,620.0,1800.0,900.0,750.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,690.0,670.0,650.0,600.0,520.0,540.0,590.0,620.0,650.0,630.0,600.0,580.0,590.0,570.0,550.0,510.0,560.0,580.0,630.0,660.0,690.0,670.0,640.0,620.0,630.0,610.0,590.0,550.0,590.0,610.0,660.0,690.0,720.0,700.0,670.0,650.0,660.0,640.0,620.0,580.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1180.0,1210.0,1360.0,1460.0,1580.0,1690.0,1750.0,1710.0,1560.0,1400.0,1240.0,1090.0,1220.0,1250.0,1410.0,1510.0,1630.0,1760.0,1830.0,1790.0,1630.0,1470.0,1300.0,1140.0,1260.0,1300.0,1470.0,1570.0,1690.0,1820.0,1900.0,1850.0,1700.0,1530.0,1360.0,1190.0,1310.0,1350.0,1530.0,1640.0,1760.0,1890.0,1970.0,1920.0,1760.0,1590.0,1410.0,1250.0,1330.0,1360.0,1240.0,1080.0,1140.0,1280.0,1360.0,1330.0,1260.0,1190.0,1110.0,1050.0,1180.0,1210.0,1370.0,1490.0,1620.0,1740.0,1820.0,1780.0,1640.0,1480.0,1320.0,1170.0,1290.0,1330.0,1500.0,1620.0,1760.0,1890.0,1980.0,1930.0,1770.0,1600.0,1420.0,1260.0,1360.0,1410.0,1600.0,1730.0,1880.0,2020.0,2110.0,2060.0,1900.0,1930.0,1680.0,1480.0,1390.0,1430.0,1610.0,1740.0,1870.0,2000.0,2080.0,2020.0,1860.0,1680.0,1490.0,1320.0,1300.0,1330.0,1490.0,1610.0,1730.0,1850.0,1930.0,1870.0,1720.0,1550.0,1370.0,1220.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3666.0,3666.0,3978.0,4134.0,7790.0,4056.0,3822.0,3705.0,3900.0,4017.0,3822.0,3510.0,3478.0,3478.0,3774.0,3922.0,4070.0,3848.0,3626.0,3515.0,3700.0,3811.0,3626.0,3330.0,3243.0,3243.0,3519.0,3657.0,3795.0,3588.0,3381.0,3278.0,4050.0,3554.0,3381.0,3105.0,3055.0,3055.0,3315.0,3445.0,3575.0,3380.0,3585.0,3088.0,3250.0,3348.0,3185.0,2925.0,2867.0,2867.0,3361.0,3533.0,3355.0,3172.0,2989.0,2898.0,3050.0,3142.0,2989.0,2745.0,2632.0,2632.0,2856.0,2968.0,4480.0,2912.0,2744.0,2660.0,2800.0,2884.0,2744.0,2520.0,2444.0,2444.0,2652.0,2756.0,2860.0,2704.0,2548.0,2470.0,2600.0,2678.0,3048.0,2340.0,2256.0,2256.0,2448.0,2544.0,2640.0,2496.0,2352.0,2280.0,2400.0,2472.0,2352.0,2160.0,2068.0,2068.0,2244.0,2332.0,2420.0,2638.0,2156.0,2090.0,2200.0,2266.0,2156.0,1980.0,1927.0,1927.0,2341.0,2173.0,2255.0,2132.0,2009.0,1948.0,2050.0,2412.0,2359.0,2045.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,5500.0,3500.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3700.0,3400.0,2900.0,3400.0,3600.0,4000.0,5200.0,4800.0,4100.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,4200.0,4100.0,4400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,4600.0,4100.0,3900.0,3700.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,4000.0,3600.0,3000.0,3300.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,3500.0,3400.0,6000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3300.0,2700.0,4800.0,2800.0,2500.0,2600.0,3000.0,3300.0,2800.0,2500.0,2700.0,3200.0,2900.0,2400.0,3500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,3100.0,2800.0,2200.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[520.0,540.0,560.0,530.0,550.0,540.0,560.0,570.0,540.0,550.0,530.0,520.0,560.0,540.0,580.0,570.0,590.0,560.0,580.0,600.0,570.0,580.0,560.0,550.0,590.0,570.0,600.0,610.0,620.0,600.0,630.0,640.0,600.0,610.0,590.0,580.0,620.0,600.0,640.0,650.0,660.0,640.0,670.0,680.0,640.0,650.0,630.0,620.0,660.0,640.0,650.0,700.0,720.0,710.0,730.0,740.0,710.0,720.0,700.0,690.0,740.0,730.0,780.0,800.0,820.0,810.0,840.0,850.0,820.0,830.0,800.0,790.0,830.0,810.0,850.0,870.0,880.0,860.0,890.0,900.0,860.0,870.0,840.0,820.0,850.0,830.0,870.0,880.0,890.0,870.0,900.0,910.0,870.0,880.0,850.0,830.0,860.0,840.0,880.0,890.0,900.0,880.0,910.0,920.0,880.0,890.0,860.0,840.0,870.0,850.0,890.0,900.0,910.0,890.0,920.0,930.0,890.0,900.0,870.0,850.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[186.0,211.0,158.0,149.0,165.0,172.0,181.0,197.0,175.0,161.0,148.0,143.0,226.0,542.0,336.0,195.0,208.0,206.0,227.0,246.0,218.0,197.0,172.0,181.0,257.0,318.0,231.0,219.0,235.0,243.0,254.0,403.0,258.0,226.0,211.0,207.0,281.0,336.0,255.0,241.0,250.0,269.0,277.0,310.0,392.0,253.0,228.0,222.0,336.0,388.0,661.0,448.0,307.0,321.0,335.0,369.0,401.0,295.0,270.0,263.0,358.0,612.0,321.0,306.0,334.0,349.0,366.0,589.0,358.0,325.0,288.0,299.0,438.0,604.0,387.0,361.0,482.0,918.0,612.0,571.0,435.0,392.0,353.0,355.0,468.0,694.0,423.0,400.0,415.0,446.0,467.0,560.0,466.0,559.0,379.0,377.0,511.0,844.0,462.0,479.0,452.0,548.0,752.0,723.0,508.0,460.0,415.0,412.0,661.0,807.0,497.0,448.0,482.0,519.0,545.0,628.0,530.0,471.0,431.0,438.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[980.0,890.0,940.0,900.0,960.0,930.0,990.0,1010.0,920.0,950.0,900.0,920.0,970.0,930.0,990.0,950.0,1000.0,980.0,1040.0,1070.0,970.0,1000.0,940.0,960.0,1010.0,960.0,1030.0,990.0,1050.0,1020.0,1090.0,1110.0,1010.0,1040.0,970.0,995.0,1040.0,990.0,1060.0,1020.0,1080.0,1050.0,1110.0,1140.0,1030.0,1060.0,990.0,1010.0,1080.0,1020.0,1110.0,1070.0,1150.0,1120.0,1190.0,1220.0,1110.0,1140.0,1050.0,1090.0,1160.0,1120.0,1480.0,1300.0,1250.0,1210.0,1260.0,1300.0,1180.0,1210.0,1140.0,1160.0,1200.0,1130.0,1170.0,1100.0,1160.0,1120.0,1180.0,1210.0,1100.0,1130.0,1050.0,1080.0,1140.0,1080.0,1120.0,1050.0,1110.0,1070.0,1130.0,1160.0,1050.0,1080.0,1000.0,1030.0,1090.0,1030.0,1070.0,1000.0,1060.0,1020.0,1080.0,1110.0,1000.0,1030.0,950.0,980.0,1040.0,980.0,1020.0,950.0,1010.0,970.0,1030.0,1060.0,960.0,990.0,910.0,940.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,2100.0,2100.0,1950.0,1900.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2050.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,2000.0,2000.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,1950.0,1850.0,1900.0,1900.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1750.0,1800.0,1800.0,1650.0,1800.0,1800.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2050.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,1950.0,1800.0,1650.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1550.0,1450.0,1450.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1250.0,1250.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1250.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1050.0,950.0,950.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,900.0]}},{"title":"Bowling","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Bowling\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[33140,31799,31591,30618,29524,26793,25912,29925,27431,31141,30817,31370,37835,34151,35944,35097,28467,25939,27045,25984,25385,28645,29151,26729,31813,30635,31072,27061,25166,24284,26150,27754,25988,26404,27331,27293,29992,26561,29561,24979,24463,25290,26585,25355,24661,26161,27551,28192,31459,27837,22910,19868,19458,15884,16555,18987,18985,20424,19480,19639,20985,21639,23063,20821,20472,17842,21649,22303,21232,21854,21833,20921,23700,23794,26011,24689,24593,20414,21967,25772,27173,28632,32185,27326,30683,31419,29522,27875,31467,27265,28479,29333,29055,30726,31304,31652,34650,30614,30585,28388,24554,19428,20425,20494,19453,19099,18346,18284,19777,19539,20548,17954,14442,13716,14212,15990,14201,14342,18512,14848],"flat_reference_value":16930.66244974816,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[105000.0,101000.0,99000.0,94000.0,87000.0,79000.0,77000.0,80000.0,89000.0,98000.0,96000.0,101000.0,103000.0,97000.0,97000.0,91000.0,85000.0,77000.0,76000.0,79000.0,87000.0,96000.0,94000.0,99000.0,101000.0,95000.0,95000.0,89000.0,83000.0,75000.0,74000.0,78000.0,85000.0,94000.0,92000.0,97000.0,99000.0,93000.0,93000.0,87000.0,81000.0,74000.0,73000.0,76000.0,83000.0,92000.0,90000.0,95000.0,98000.0,92000.0,80000.0,57000.0,59000.0,62000.0,65000.0,68000.0,72000.0,76000.0,73000.0,74000.0,77000.0,73000.0,78000.0,77000.0,76000.0,72000.0,73000.0,77000.0,83000.0,90000.0,88000.0,92000.0,95000.0,89000.0,91000.0,85000.0,79000.0,72000.0,71000.0,75000.0,81000.0,89000.0,87000.0,92000.0,93000.0,87000.0,89000.0,83000.0,77000.0,70000.0,69000.0,73000.0,79000.0,87000.0,85000.0,90000.0,91000.0,85000.0,87000.0,81000.0,75000.0,68000.0,67000.0,71000.0,77000.0,85000.0,83000.0,88000.0,89000.0,82000.0,85000.0,79000.0,73000.0,66000.0,65000.0,69000.0,75000.0,83000.0,81000.0,86000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[53400.0,51200.0,50800.0,47500.0,45100.0,43800.0,45600.0,52300.0,43200.0,44700.0,46100.0,47900.0,51600.0,48900.0,49400.0,45800.0,43500.0,41900.0,43700.0,42800.0,40500.0,42100.0,43600.0,45200.0,48700.0,46900.0,46200.0,43100.0,40400.0,39200.0,41500.0,40800.0,38400.0,39700.0,41200.0,42900.0,46500.0,43800.0,44900.0,41300.0,39800.0,43400.0,44100.0,39600.0,37800.0,39100.0,40300.0,41900.0,45400.0,43700.0,34800.0,29600.0,30900.0,32400.0,34700.0,35200.0,33600.0,34900.0,34100.0,36300.0,40200.0,42600.0,41100.0,37900.0,36400.0,35800.0,43500.0,42900.0,35100.0,36800.0,37500.0,38900.0,41800.0,39400.0,39900.0,38700.0,37600.0,35200.0,36900.0,36100.0,33800.0,35400.0,36700.0,37800.0,40900.0,38600.0,39200.0,36500.0,34700.0,34100.0,36200.0,35600.0,33900.0,37800.0,38400.0,37200.0,40100.0,38300.0,38900.0,35900.0,34400.0,35700.0,41600.0,43200.0,33500.0,34800.0,35900.0,37100.0,39800.0,37600.0,38200.0,35400.0,33900.0,33200.0,35100.0,34600.0,32700.0,34100.0,35300.0,36600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[72400.0,68200.0,67500.0,61800.0,57400.0,53100.0,51200.0,52900.0,58300.0,64100.0,69500.0,71800.0,68100.0,63500.0,62800.0,57600.0,53900.0,49800.0,47900.0,49400.0,54600.0,60200.0,65300.0,67400.0,63500.0,59200.0,58400.0,53800.0,50100.0,46300.0,44700.0,46100.0,51000.0,56200.0,61000.0,62800.0,59200.0,55000.0,54300.0,49800.0,46500.0,42900.0,41300.0,42800.0,47100.0,52000.0,56400.0,58100.0,55800.0,51600.0,41200.0,34500.0,33200.0,32800.0,32100.0,33500.0,37400.0,41500.0,43200.0,44800.0,48200.0,45100.0,46900.0,43500.0,41000.0,38200.0,37100.0,38600.0,42300.0,46800.0,50400.0,52100.0,52500.0,48800.0,49600.0,45200.0,42400.0,39500.0,38400.0,39900.0,43700.0,48100.0,51900.0,53600.0,50200.0,46500.0,47400.0,43100.0,40500.0,37800.0,36700.0,38100.0,41900.0,46000.0,49500.0,51200.0,48100.0,44800.0,45500.0,41300.0,38900.0,36200.0,35100.0,36500.0,40100.0,44000.0,47300.0,49000.0,46200.0,43000.0,43800.0,39800.0,37400.0,34900.0,33800.0,35200.0,38600.0,42400.0,45500.0,47100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[34100.0,32600.0,32600.0,31000.0,29500.0,27300.0,27300.0,28500.0,30100.0,31600.0,32600.0,31000.0,31900.0,30500.0,30500.0,29000.0,27600.0,25500.0,25500.0,26700.0,28100.0,29600.0,30500.0,29000.0,29700.0,28400.0,28400.0,27000.0,25700.0,23800.0,23800.0,24800.0,26200.0,27500.0,28400.0,27000.0,28100.0,26800.0,26800.0,25500.0,24200.0,22400.0,22400.0,23500.0,24700.0,26000.0,26800.0,25500.0,26400.0,25200.0,26000.0,26500.0,24500.0,21100.0,21100.0,22100.0,23300.0,24500.0,25200.0,24000.0,25300.0,24200.0,24200.0,23000.0,21900.0,20200.0,20200.0,21200.0,22300.0,23500.0,24200.0,23000.0,23700.0,22600.0,22600.0,21500.0,20400.0,18900.0,18900.0,19800.0,20900.0,21900.0,22600.0,21500.0,22600.0,21500.0,21500.0,20500.0,19500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18900.0,19900.0,20900.0,21500.0,20500.0,21500.0,20500.0,20500.0,19500.0,18500.0,17200.0,17200.0,17900.0,18900.0,19900.0,20500.0,19500.0,19300.0,18400.0,18400.0,17500.0,16600.0,15400.0,15400.0,16100.0,17000.0,17900.0,18400.0,17500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[52000.0,48000.0,49000.0,45000.0,44000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,50000.0,45000.0,47000.0,42000.0,42000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,46000.0,42000.0,43000.0,39000.0,38000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,40000.0,37000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,35000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,31000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[120000.0,104000.0,96000.0,89000.0,84000.0,80000.0,81000.0,88000.0,82000.0,84000.0,89000.0,120000.0,117000.0,101000.0,92000.0,86000.0,81000.0,77000.0,78000.0,86000.0,79000.0,81000.0,86000.0,115000.0,113000.0,97000.0,89000.0,83000.0,78000.0,75000.0,76000.0,83000.0,77000.0,78000.0,83000.0,111000.0,109000.0,94000.0,86000.0,80000.0,76000.0,72000.0,73000.0,80000.0,74000.0,76000.0,80000.0,108000.0,104000.0,90000.0,78000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,66000.0,64000.0,64000.0,62000.0,78000.0,90000.0,80000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,65000.0,70000.0,65000.0,66000.0,70000.0,96000.0,92000.0,79000.0,72000.0,67000.0,64000.0,61000.0,62000.0,67000.0,62000.0,63000.0,67000.0,92000.0,88000.0,75000.0,69000.0,64000.0,61000.0,58000.0,59000.0,64000.0,59000.0,60000.0,64000.0,87000.0,84000.0,72000.0,66000.0,61000.0,58000.0,55000.0,56000.0,61000.0,56000.0,58000.0,61000.0,83000.0,81000.0,69000.0,63000.0,59000.0,56000.0,53000.0,54000.0,59000.0,55000.0,56000.0,59000.0,80000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[62841.0,60215.0,54732.0,49810.0,45233.0,39872.0,38745.0,41209.0,44789.0,50347.0,55412.0,57890.0,59734.0,58120.0,52560.0,47683.0,43511.0,38102.0,37655.0,39014.0,42987.0,48326.0,53145.0,54879.0,55980.0,54322.0,49108.0,45271.0,40235.0,36341.0,34892.0,37188.0,40803.0,44712.0,49856.0,51423.0,54012.0,51247.0,47605.0,42819.0,38942.0,34108.0,33821.0,34965.0,39011.0,43258.0,47034.0,49720.0,50984.0,49562.0,54387.0,57832.0,46410.0,33045.0,31722.0,33891.0,36678.0,41287.0,44856.0,47492.0,47233.0,45918.0,41542.0,38271.0,33958.0,30682.0,29374.0,31429.0,34476.0,37712.0,42105.0,43418.0,44018.0,41765.0,38792.0,34789.0,31743.0,27751.0,27586.0,28432.0,31807.0,35234.0,38218.0,40571.0,40987.0,39884.0,36045.0,33271.0,29458.0,26692.0,25491.0,27328.0,29964.0,32742.0,36587.0,38213.0,39022.0,36945.0,34387.0,30768.0,28153.0,24592.0,24416.0,25187.0,28204.0,31259.0,33842.0,35908.0,37784.0,35721.0,33296.0,29783.0,27241.0,23768.0,23652.0,24389.0,27315.0,30247.0,32758.0,34792.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[312000.0,301000.0,293000.0,277000.0,262000.0,254000.0,258000.0,265000.0,306000.0,298000.0,288000.0,311000.0,320000.0,306000.0,297000.0,282000.0,268000.0,259000.0,263000.0,271000.0,312000.0,303000.0,294000.0,316000.0,325000.0,311000.0,302000.0,287000.0,272000.0,263000.0,268000.0,275000.0,317000.0,308000.0,299000.0,321000.0,330000.0,315000.0,299000.0,288000.0,274000.0,264000.0,266000.0,278000.0,317000.0,310000.0,301000.0,320000.0,332000.0,320000.0,338000.0,272000.0,252000.0,268000.0,280000.0,285000.0,312000.0,306000.0,298000.0,318000.0,322000.0,311000.0,300000.0,288000.0,274000.0,266000.0,268000.0,278000.0,314000.0,308000.0,300000.0,318000.0,312000.0,302000.0,291000.0,279000.0,265000.0,257000.0,259000.0,268000.0,303000.0,298000.0,291000.0,308000.0,301000.0,292000.0,281000.0,270000.0,256000.0,248000.0,250000.0,259000.0,294000.0,289000.0,281000.0,297000.0,290000.0,281000.0,270000.0,260000.0,247000.0,239000.0,252000.0,248000.0,284000.0,279000.0,270000.0,286000.0,279000.0,271000.0,260000.0,250000.0,237000.0,230000.0,232000.0,240000.0,273000.0,268000.0,260000.0,275000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[51700.0,50800.0,49400.0,47000.0,45600.0,43200.0,41800.0,42800.0,46500.0,48900.0,47900.0,46100.0,50100.0,49100.0,47800.0,45500.0,44100.0,41900.0,40500.0,41400.0,45000.0,47300.0,46400.0,44600.0,49000.0,48100.0,46700.0,44500.0,43200.0,40900.0,39600.0,40500.0,44100.0,46300.0,45400.0,43600.0,47900.0,47000.0,45700.0,43500.0,42200.0,40000.0,38700.0,39600.0,43100.0,45200.0,44400.0,42600.0,42000.0,41000.0,38500.0,33500.0,32500.0,31500.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,37500.0,36500.0,34500.0,45500.0,44000.0,42500.0,41000.0,39500.0,37500.0,36500.0,37000.0,40500.0,42500.0,41500.0,39500.0,43500.0,42500.0,41500.0,39500.0,38000.0,36500.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,38500.0,42500.0,41500.0,40500.0,38500.0,37000.0,35500.0,34000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37500.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37500.0,36000.0,34500.0,33000.0,34000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36500.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36500.0,35000.0,33500.0,32000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[41000.0,39500.0,37000.0,34500.0,33000.0,30500.0,29500.0,30500.0,33000.0,34500.0,37500.0,39000.0,42500.0,41000.0,38500.0,36000.0,34500.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34500.0,36000.0,39000.0,40500.0,44000.0,42500.0,40000.0,37500.0,36000.0,33500.0,32500.0,33500.0,36000.0,37500.0,40500.0,42000.0,46000.0,44500.0,42000.0,39000.0,37500.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37500.0,39000.0,42500.0,44000.0,46500.0,45000.0,40000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33500.0,32000.0,33500.0,36500.0,39000.0,42000.0,41000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,42500.0,40500.0,37500.0,36500.0,37500.0,40500.0,43000.0,46000.0,46500.0,45500.0,44000.0,41500.0,39000.0,37500.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43500.0,42000.0,39500.0,37000.0,35500.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35500.0,42000.0,39500.0,40500.0,42000.0,40500.0,38500.0,36000.0,34500.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34500.0,36500.0,39000.0,40000.0,40500.0,39500.0,37000.0,35000.0,33500.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33500.0,35000.0,37500.0,38500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[56160.0,58760.0,53560.0,50960.0,48880.0,47840.0,46800.0,47840.0,50440.0,55120.0,57200.0,57720.0,58860.0,61585.0,56135.0,53410.0,51230.0,50140.0,49050.0,50140.0,52865.0,57770.0,59950.0,60495.0,62100.0,64975.0,59225.0,56350.0,54050.0,52900.0,51750.0,52900.0,55775.0,60950.0,63250.0,63825.0,64800.0,67800.0,61800.0,58800.0,56400.0,55200.0,54000.0,55200.0,58200.0,63600.0,66000.0,66600.0,61560.0,64410.0,55860.0,46740.0,47880.0,54150.0,54720.0,55860.0,57000.0,60420.0,62700.0,61560.0,67500.0,70625.0,64375.0,61250.0,58750.0,57500.0,56250.0,57500.0,60625.0,66250.0,68750.0,69375.0,65340.0,68365.0,62315.0,59290.0,56870.0,55660.0,54450.0,55660.0,58685.0,64130.0,66550.0,67155.0,62100.0,64975.0,59225.0,56350.0,54050.0,52900.0,51750.0,52900.0,55775.0,60950.0,63250.0,63825.0,58860.0,61585.0,56135.0,53410.0,51230.0,50140.0,49050.0,50140.0,52865.0,57770.0,59950.0,60495.0,55620.0,58195.0,53045.0,50470.0,48410.0,47380.0,46350.0,47380.0,49955.0,54590.0,56650.0,57165.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[96420.0,93850.0,85670.0,78910.0,74430.0,74120.0,78740.0,85060.0,88220.0,94380.0,91760.0,92510.0,99900.0,97250.0,88600.0,81320.0,77110.0,76980.0,81430.0,87540.0,91290.0,97640.0,95010.0,94870.0,103410.0,100750.0,91620.0,84050.0,79780.0,79540.0,84160.0,89970.0,94330.0,100910.0,98110.0,98570.0,106800.0,104100.0,94470.0,86980.0,82330.0,88200.0,91600.0,92760.0,97490.0,103900.0,101300.0,101940.0,125400.0,126300.0,127500.0,139200.0,136700.0,119600.0,108300.0,113400.0,122100.0,129200.0,126800.0,119500.0,121300.0,118500.0,107300.0,98700.0,93600.0,93100.0,98900.0,106100.0,111000.0,123600.0,119000.0,115900.0,112300.0,109600.0,99400.0,91300.0,86700.0,86400.0,91300.0,97700.0,102600.0,109400.0,106800.0,107300.0,117900.0,115200.0,104300.0,95900.0,91000.0,90600.0,95900.0,103200.0,108000.0,124500.0,119100.0,112700.0,123600.0,120700.0,109200.0,100500.0,95400.0,99500.0,107300.0,109600.0,113000.0,120200.0,117400.0,117900.0,130200.0,127300.0,115100.0,105900.0,100600.0,100000.0,106000.0,113900.0,119200.0,136500.0,132800.0,124500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[165000.0,155000.0,150000.0,140000.0,130000.0,120000.0,120000.0,125000.0,135000.0,145000.0,150000.0,165000.0,170000.0,158000.0,152000.0,140000.0,132000.0,120000.0,120000.0,125000.0,135000.0,145000.0,150000.0,165000.0,168000.0,155000.0,150000.0,138000.0,128000.0,118000.0,118000.0,122000.0,132000.0,142000.0,148000.0,160000.0,165000.0,152000.0,148000.0,136000.0,126000.0,116000.0,116000.0,120000.0,130000.0,140000.0,145000.0,158000.0,162000.0,152000.0,120000.0,95000.0,100000.0,105000.0,108000.0,112000.0,120000.0,128000.0,130000.0,142000.0,148000.0,138000.0,135000.0,125000.0,115000.0,108000.0,108000.0,112000.0,120000.0,128000.0,132000.0,142000.0,145000.0,135000.0,132000.0,122000.0,112000.0,105000.0,105000.0,108000.0,116000.0,124000.0,128000.0,138000.0,140000.0,130000.0,128000.0,118000.0,108000.0,100000.0,100000.0,104000.0,112000.0,120000.0,124000.0,134000.0,136000.0,126000.0,124000.0,114000.0,104000.0,96000.0,96000.0,100000.0,108000.0,116000.0,120000.0,130000.0,132000.0,122000.0,120000.0,110000.0,101000.0,94000.0,94000.0,98000.0,106000.0,114000.0,118000.0,128000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[370000.0,345000.0,330000.0,275000.0,285000.0,320000.0,300000.0,325000.0,405000.0,360000.0,285000.0,290000.0,390000.0,375000.0,345000.0,280000.0,290000.0,330000.0,325000.0,340000.0,430000.0,380000.0,295000.0,305000.0,395000.0,385000.0,360000.0,290000.0,305000.0,340000.0,345000.0,350000.0,445000.0,400000.0,310000.0,315000.0,410000.0,395000.0,370000.0,300000.0,315000.0,355000.0,340000.0,365000.0,465000.0,420000.0,320000.0,330000.0,365000.0,350000.0,300000.0,245000.0,255000.0,290000.0,275000.0,305000.0,400000.0,370000.0,290000.0,300000.0,360000.0,345000.0,315000.0,270000.0,285000.0,300000.0,295000.0,310000.0,395000.0,365000.0,285000.0,295000.0,385000.0,375000.0,350000.0,285000.0,300000.0,335000.0,320000.0,340000.0,435000.0,390000.0,300000.0,310000.0,370000.0,355000.0,340000.0,275000.0,290000.0,325000.0,310000.0,330000.0,420000.0,375000.0,290000.0,300000.0,350000.0,340000.0,325000.0,265000.0,275000.0,310000.0,295000.0,315000.0,395000.0,355000.0,280000.0,285000.0,335000.0,320000.0,305000.0,250000.0,260000.0,295000.0,280000.0,305000.0,370000.0,335000.0,265000.0,275000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[26400.0,23760.0,22440.0,21560.0,20680.0,19800.0,19140.0,19580.0,20900.0,21780.0,22880.0,25080.0,26160.0,23544.0,22236.0,21364.0,20492.0,19620.0,18966.0,19402.0,20710.0,21582.0,22672.0,24852.0,25200.0,22680.0,21420.0,20580.0,19740.0,18900.0,18270.0,18690.0,19950.0,20790.0,21840.0,23940.0,24480.0,22032.0,20808.0,19992.0,19176.0,18360.0,17748.0,18156.0,19380.0,20196.0,21216.0,23256.0,24600.0,22500.0,22000.0,20200.0,19500.0,18700.0,18100.0,18400.0,19600.0,20300.0,21200.0,23200.0,23160.0,20844.0,19686.0,18914.0,18142.0,17370.0,16791.0,17177.0,18335.0,19107.0,20072.0,22002.0,22200.0,19980.0,18870.0,18130.0,17390.0,16650.0,16095.0,16465.0,17575.0,18315.0,19240.0,21090.0,21360.0,19224.0,18156.0,17444.0,16732.0,16020.0,15486.0,15842.0,16910.0,17622.0,18512.0,20292.0,20640.0,18576.0,17544.0,16856.0,16168.0,15480.0,14964.0,15308.0,16340.0,17028.0,17888.0,19608.0,19920.0,17928.0,16932.0,16268.0,15604.0,14940.0,14442.0,14774.0,15770.0,16434.0,17264.0,18924.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[126000.0,124800.0,126000.0,122400.0,120000.0,114000.0,110400.0,114000.0,122400.0,124800.0,123600.0,110400.0,120750.0,119600.0,120750.0,117300.0,115000.0,109250.0,105800.0,109250.0,117300.0,119600.0,118450.0,105800.0,115500.0,114400.0,115500.0,112200.0,110000.0,104500.0,101200.0,104500.0,112200.0,114400.0,113300.0,101200.0,110250.0,109200.0,110250.0,107100.0,105000.0,99750.0,96600.0,99750.0,107100.0,109200.0,108150.0,96600.0,120750.0,119600.0,125000.0,130000.0,128000.0,120000.0,112000.0,112000.0,115000.0,117000.0,116000.0,105800.0,110250.0,109200.0,110250.0,107100.0,105000.0,99750.0,96600.0,99750.0,107100.0,109200.0,108150.0,96600.0,99750.0,98800.0,99750.0,96900.0,95000.0,90250.0,87400.0,90250.0,96900.0,98800.0,97850.0,87400.0,89250.0,88400.0,89250.0,86700.0,85000.0,80750.0,78200.0,80750.0,86700.0,88400.0,87550.0,78200.0,78750.0,78000.0,78750.0,76500.0,75000.0,71250.0,69000.0,71250.0,76500.0,78000.0,77250.0,69000.0,68250.0,67600.0,68250.0,66300.0,65000.0,61750.0,59800.0,61750.0,66300.0,67600.0,66950.0,59800.0]}},{"title":"Bullet Club","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Bullet Club\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[252695,95455,76155,298244,192231,114470,92962,101595,68791,52192,49284,111225,153740,77518,103066,93883,111933,77588,85807,85037,68437,110378,99343,74305,202540,111493,94704,108241,94207,85183,118033,66285,62926,103401,73256,68511,86526,41906,38468,38378,42970,43538,52957,49240,27953,40776,45879,30542,35462,23462,25530,35630,30757,26022,58563,29599,29168,24629,21607,35520,74843,50251,29027,29867,26564,19236,65545,46881,79325,35241,33690,23151,30474,78600,60756,47805,74166,82648,28714,25252,30125,53140,33766,26247,45857,46388,62177,94435,48723,84769,70131,54615,45335,55234,43640,34839,70949,54259,56575,82238,82808,39947,39444,29829,22079,27680,27642,23452,34382,32151,29907,31773,39965,32359,26189,32339,19822,35921,20599,21741],"flat_reference_value":16866.632824588047,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[118000.0,69000.0,58000.0,78000.0,62000.0,55000.0,67000.0,72000.0,58000.0,52000.0,49000.0,51000.0,97000.0,66000.0,61000.0,65000.0,63000.0,88000.0,78000.0,94000.0,86000.0,79000.0,68000.0,71000.0,116000.0,104000.0,89000.0,84000.0,85000.0,112000.0,137000.0,111000.0,126000.0,99000.0,85000.0,78000.0,112000.0,85000.0,69000.0,77000.0,62000.0,58000.0,65000.0,69000.0,56000.0,59000.0,52000.0,50000.0,75000.0,50000.0,42000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,39000.0,37000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,43000.0,71000.0,55000.0,46000.0,48000.0,43000.0,41000.0,48000.0,45000.0,40000.0,42000.0,39000.0,37000.0,51000.0,50000.0,39000.0,42000.0,47000.0,50000.0,41000.0,43000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,50000.0,54000.0,49000.0,61000.0,48000.0,51000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,39000.0,50000.0,38000.0,37000.0,59000.0,52000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,46000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,32000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,31000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[244500.0,118200.0,96400.0,148300.0,134600.0,98700.0,109400.0,127800.0,86500.0,79200.0,76800.0,91400.0,156200.0,92300.0,84100.0,88900.0,94600.0,99200.0,108500.0,97400.0,83600.0,79800.0,82400.0,86900.0,162400.0,94800.0,89500.0,96200.0,87300.0,103600.0,112800.0,91400.0,94700.0,96800.0,72500.0,69800.0,108400.0,68900.0,63400.0,71800.0,62500.0,56900.0,54200.0,69400.0,51800.0,48600.0,46200.0,47900.0,69500.0,48300.0,42100.0,39600.0,38400.0,41200.0,63800.0,49500.0,43100.0,42800.0,41900.0,46700.0,87400.0,83600.0,58900.0,51200.0,48700.0,45300.0,47800.0,51400.0,44600.0,42300.0,40800.0,39500.0,54200.0,48900.0,46500.0,43800.0,51600.0,59400.0,44700.0,45900.0,39800.0,38400.0,36900.0,37600.0,56800.0,45200.0,52900.0,63400.0,51800.0,57600.0,49200.0,46500.0,39400.0,37800.0,35600.0,34900.0,47300.0,38600.0,35200.0,33800.0,32400.0,36100.0,31900.0,32800.0,28400.0,27100.0,26500.0,27800.0,39400.0,29600.0,27400.0,26100.0,25800.0,27900.0,26400.0,28700.0,24300.0,23100.0,22400.0,23600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[95200.0,68400.0,52100.0,58300.0,64200.0,55100.0,50400.0,72300.0,58100.0,52400.0,48200.0,56700.0,85400.0,62100.0,58300.0,55200.0,68400.0,72500.0,80100.0,75300.0,68200.0,62400.0,65100.0,60300.0,98400.0,85200.0,75100.0,70300.0,68100.0,82400.0,88300.0,78200.0,92100.0,84300.0,70200.0,65400.0,88100.0,62400.0,48300.0,58200.0,45100.0,42300.0,40200.0,52400.0,42100.0,38400.0,35200.0,36100.0,52300.0,38100.0,24200.0,18400.0,19100.0,25300.0,45200.0,32100.0,30400.0,34200.0,28100.0,26300.0,42100.0,32400.0,28200.0,26100.0,29300.0,25200.0,31400.0,27100.0,30200.0,28400.0,25100.0,24200.0,34100.0,31200.0,28300.0,29400.0,38200.0,48100.0,35300.0,34200.0,29100.0,28400.0,27200.0,26100.0,38400.0,42100.0,39200.0,52300.0,44100.0,48200.0,42100.0,45300.0,40100.0,44200.0,48400.0,36200.0,40200.0,32100.0,35400.0,33200.0,29100.0,28300.0,29400.0,31200.0,26100.0,24300.0,23200.0,22100.0,28200.0,23400.0,22100.0,21300.0,20400.0,22100.0,21200.0,24100.0,21000.0,20200.0,19400.0,20100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[260000.0,190000.0,165000.0,185000.0,150000.0,140000.0,145000.0,135000.0,125000.0,120000.0,118000.0,115000.0,140000.0,120000.0,115000.0,110000.0,108000.0,115000.0,118000.0,120000.0,115000.0,118000.0,120000.0,125000.0,160000.0,150000.0,145000.0,130000.0,125000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,140000.0,120000.0,110000.0,105000.0,135000.0,85000.0,70000.0,65000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,52000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,27000.0,30000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[450000.0,300000.0,270000.0,290000.0,300000.0,260000.0,280000.0,270000.0,230000.0,220000.0,210000.0,215000.0,280000.0,220000.0,215000.0,220000.0,210000.0,215000.0,225000.0,230000.0,215000.0,210000.0,205000.0,225000.0,320000.0,260000.0,260000.0,270000.0,250000.0,260000.0,290000.0,250000.0,260000.0,230000.0,200000.0,200000.0,250000.0,170000.0,150000.0,160000.0,160000.0,140000.0,130000.0,130000.0,115000.0,115000.0,105000.0,105000.0,135000.0,105000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,110000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,100000.0,80000.0,78000.0,75000.0,72000.0,68000.0,70000.0,70000.0,68000.0,65000.0,66000.0,68000.0,85000.0,75000.0,78000.0,80000.0,80000.0,85000.0,75000.0,72000.0,68000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,90000.0,78000.0,85000.0,85000.0,78000.0,78000.0,75000.0,72000.0,66000.0,65000.0,64000.0,64000.0,75000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,57000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,51000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,62000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":null,"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[45000.0,32000.0,28000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,26000.0,55000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,28000.0,52000.0,33000.0,30000.0,32000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,35000.0,38000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,42000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,21000.0,28000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,22000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,22000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,20000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,19000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,12000.0,17000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,9800.0,10200.0,9800.0,10500.0,15500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,9200.0,9500.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,8600.0,9200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[68000.0,46000.0,36000.0,31000.0,33000.0,39000.0,37000.0,43000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,98000.0,50000.0,42000.0,37000.0,35000.0,42000.0,58000.0,50000.0,39000.0,37000.0,33000.0,35000.0,82000.0,45000.0,41000.0,37000.0,39000.0,76000.0,50000.0,46000.0,55000.0,58000.0,41000.0,39000.0,92000.0,50000.0,45000.0,65000.0,72000.0,50000.0,46000.0,50000.0,55000.0,48000.0,43000.0,39000.0,68000.0,41000.0,37000.0,31000.0,37000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,45000.0,39000.0,41000.0,37000.0,55000.0,37000.0,39000.0,37000.0,47000.0,41000.0,43000.0,50000.0,59000.0,41000.0,45000.0,39000.0,55000.0,37000.0,41000.0,39000.0,48000.0,82000.0,50000.0,45000.0,54000.0,52000.0,45000.0,39000.0,55000.0,41000.0,45000.0,47000.0,50000.0,78000.0,52000.0,56000.0,50000.0,56000.0,48000.0,43000.0,59000.0,45000.0,48000.0,52000.0,54000.0,76000.0,54000.0,60000.0,54000.0,50000.0,48000.0,44000.0,56000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,74000.0,52000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[85000.0,35000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,35000.0,40000.0,55000.0,35000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,130000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,70000.0,50000.0,60000.0,40000.0,38000.0,55000.0,60000.0,160000.0,60000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,90000.0,65000.0,60000.0,100000.0,60000.0,55000.0,50000.0,120000.0,65000.0,55000.0,55000.0,80000.0,60000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,40000.0,70000.0,40000.0,30000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,45000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,35000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,50000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,35000.0,65000.0,45000.0,35000.0,35000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,70000.0,35000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,50000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,45000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,28000.0,25000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,40000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[34000.0,31000.0,23000.0,27000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,21000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,38000.0,32000.0,25000.0,24000.0,30000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,47000.0,36000.0,33000.0,35000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,30000.0,32000.0,28000.0,52000.0,44000.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,29000.0,24000.0,30000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,21000.0,30000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,32000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,34000.0,32000.0,29000.0,25000.0,27000.0,23000.0,21000.0,40000.0,36000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,35000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20000.0,26000.0,24000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,22000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,20000.0,85000.0,34000.0,15000.0,10000.0,8600.0,11500.0,7200.0,5900.0,5700.0,5500.0,5700.0,7000.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,4700.0,5400.0,6800.0,6100.0,5900.0,6600.0,7400.0,7200.0,8400.0,6900.0,6500.0,6100.0,6100.0,6700.0,8000.0,6300.0,5900.0,6100.0,5900.0,5900.0,7000.0,5700.0,5500.0,5300.0,5300.0,5900.0,7000.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,5600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4700.0,5600.0,4100.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,4000.0,4800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,4000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3500.0,4200.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3500.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,3000.0,3500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1180.0,1060.0,1210.0,1140.0,1280.0,1240.0,1380.0,1330.0,1200.0,1280.0,1320.0,1060.0,1230.0,1120.0,2740.0,2450.0,2520.0,2270.0,2090.0,1950.0,1790.0,1880.0,1970.0,1580.0,1500.0,1380.0,1610.0,1480.0,1640.0,1570.0,1730.0,1660.0,1510.0,1600.0,1680.0,1360.0,1470.0,1330.0,1540.0,1430.0,1610.0,1540.0,1700.0,1630.0,1480.0,1580.0,3920.0,1740.0,1580.0,1440.0,1660.0,1540.0,1810.0,3760.0,2350.0,2010.0,1870.0,2050.0,2200.0,1740.0,1900.0,1730.0,2030.0,1880.0,2160.0,2090.0,2330.0,2230.0,3190.0,2490.0,2600.0,2090.0,2200.0,1980.0,2270.0,2100.0,2410.0,2330.0,2580.0,2470.0,2290.0,2460.0,5480.0,3720.0,3370.0,3020.0,3540.0,3280.0,3750.0,3640.0,4130.0,3950.0,3650.0,4210.0,6120.0,4720.0,4550.0,4070.0,4620.0,4300.0,4900.0,4750.0,5400.0,5150.0,4700.0,5050.0,5350.0,4350.0,5650.0,5100.0,6000.0,5650.0,6500.0,6300.0,7100.0,6800.0,6200.0,6650.0,6950.0,5700.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,70000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,58000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,46000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,42000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,38000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,20000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[24500.0,17000.0,16500.0,37000.0,21000.0,57000.0,44500.0,31500.0,23000.0,20000.0,24500.0,28500.0,58500.0,43500.0,47000.0,70500.0,48500.0,46000.0,54500.0,92500.0,68000.0,52000.0,63000.0,66500.0,51000.0,35500.0,38000.0,50000.0,30500.0,28500.0,29500.0,43000.0,33500.0,27500.0,36000.0,39500.0,39000.0,21500.0,20500.0,24000.0,19000.0,17500.0,15500.0,31500.0,22500.0,17000.0,19000.0,21500.0,31000.0,20500.0,18500.0,22000.0,20500.0,16500.0,14500.0,24000.0,16500.0,14500.0,17000.0,18500.0,28500.0,19000.0,17000.0,20000.0,17500.0,16000.0,14000.0,19000.0,16000.0,13500.0,15500.0,17000.0,26500.0,18000.0,16500.0,19500.0,17000.0,15500.0,13500.0,17500.0,15000.0,13000.0,15000.0,16500.0,25000.0,17000.0,16000.0,18500.0,16000.0,14500.0,13000.0,16500.0,14500.0,12500.0,14500.0,16000.0,25500.0,17000.0,15500.0,18000.0,16000.0,14000.0,12500.0,16000.0,14000.0,12000.0,14000.0,16500.0,24500.0,16000.0,15000.0,17500.0,15500.0,13500.0,12000.0,15500.0,13500.0,11500.0,13500.0,15000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[10500.0,9200.0,8100.0,7600.0,7300.0,7800.0,8200.0,7500.0,7200.0,7600.0,7100.0,6800.0,7400.0,7900.0,8500.0,8100.0,9000.0,9500.0,10200.0,9800.0,9200.0,10500.0,11800.0,10800.0,12000.0,11400.0,12600.0,13800.0,13200.0,14900.0,15700.0,23100.0,20500.0,17100.0,14300.0,13200.0,14200.0,12700.0,13600.0,15100.0,18400.0,16400.0,14900.0,15700.0,14100.0,12800.0,11900.0,11200.0,10400.0,9800.0,9300.0,8200.0,7800.0,8500.0,9200.0,8800.0,9400.0,8200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7600.0,7200.0,7800.0,8100.0,8500.0,9100.0,8400.0,8900.0,9800.0,8700.0,8200.0,7900.0,8600.0,8300.0,9200.0,10100.0,12800.0,28400.0,20300.0,15100.0,12800.0,11300.0,12400.0,10900.0,15200.0,11700.0,10900.0,13600.0,16200.0,14700.0,12900.0,12100.0,11400.0,10800.0,10500.0,9800.0,11200.0,10100.0,10900.0,13800.0,12600.0,11800.0,10900.0,10400.0,9800.0,10200.0,9600.0,9100.0,9300.0,8800.0,9200.0,9700.0,9400.0,10100.0,9600.0,9100.0,8700.0,9000.0,8500.0,8200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[7200.0,6300.0,6600.0,6000.0,5900.0,6800.0,5600.0,5800.0,6100.0,6900.0,6500.0,7400.0,11500.0,7800.0,6600.0,5900.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5600.0,5900.0,6200.0,5800.0,6900.0,8400.0,5600.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4200.0,4800.0,6000.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4400.0,4800.0,5200.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,3200.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,3400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,3000.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2800.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0]}},{"title":"UK Independence Party","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"UK Independence Party\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[38347,44480,40255,43566,63673,243244,97744,32998,46711,72970,80810,47975,48635,55271,54280,61230,87628,142344,26577,22811,38392,36557,30163,29815,63398,37445,36702,34993,44448,49400,50817,32769,42089,37066,44449,57439,56716,48764,69744,93492,136957,39516,38824,38222,44725,43184,72868,83632,31468,29268,21719,27077,28422,32750,25798,23831,27243,30596,42942,32833,40406,29622,39650,39840,49336,23665,25823,20759,22993,30174,26513,30980,28482,23525,23570,26043,32521,25626,31906,20499,27974,40508,27931,22325,22344,20230,23324,25058,40482,22261,31629,20247,21916,28481,41037,28555,29635,29024,35693,28170,54306,113378,129283,29777,21317,25525,28575,29666,36782,31255,36371,28885,49746,27674,29020,42736,51761,53461,35712,28644],"flat_reference_value":16893.250177810663,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[92000.0,112000.0,119000.0,137000.0,182000.0,510000.0,340000.0,151000.0,174000.0,191000.0,145000.0,104000.0,103000.0,132000.0,97000.0,112000.0,157000.0,219000.0,95000.0,69000.0,82000.0,75000.0,63000.0,56000.0,89000.0,96000.0,62000.0,54000.0,51000.0,53000.0,50000.0,46000.0,49000.0,54000.0,65000.0,71000.0,62000.0,55000.0,71000.0,80000.0,142000.0,85000.0,54000.0,45000.0,49000.0,52000.0,61000.0,76000.0,42000.0,35000.0,31000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,39000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,29000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,27000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,31000.0,58000.0,72000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,30000.0,40000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[88000.0,105000.0,112000.0,125000.0,175000.0,640000.0,265000.0,108000.0,135000.0,182000.0,145000.0,84000.0,78000.0,114000.0,96000.0,142000.0,188000.0,315000.0,82000.0,64000.0,94000.0,68000.0,58000.0,55000.0,118000.0,92000.0,66000.0,58000.0,72000.0,52000.0,56000.0,49000.0,54000.0,51000.0,89000.0,112000.0,68000.0,57000.0,84000.0,132000.0,195000.0,66000.0,54000.0,61000.0,56000.0,62000.0,83000.0,98000.0,76000.0,46000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,34000.0,37000.0,35000.0,39000.0,36000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,43000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,33000.0,25000.0,29000.0,24000.0,28000.0,34000.0,25000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,29000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,19000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,44000.0,86000.0,108000.0,46000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,32000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,39000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[75000.0,95000.0,90000.0,110000.0,160000.0,650000.0,280000.0,90000.0,130000.0,170000.0,140000.0,80000.0,70000.0,90000.0,65000.0,95000.0,140000.0,220000.0,55000.0,45000.0,75000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,75000.0,85000.0,42000.0,50000.0,40000.0,35000.0,38000.0,32000.0,35000.0,34000.0,48000.0,65000.0,52000.0,45000.0,55000.0,75000.0,140000.0,55000.0,38000.0,42000.0,30000.0,38000.0,45000.0,62000.0,40000.0,25000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,22000.0,19000.0,17000.0,20000.0,18000.0,19000.0,24000.0,22000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,24000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,19000.0,16000.0,18000.0,15000.0,15000.0,19000.0,15000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,16000.0,14000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,19000.0,32000.0,45000.0,20000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[85000.0,95000.0,90000.0,100000.0,140000.0,380000.0,170000.0,90000.0,95000.0,105000.0,100000.0,70000.0,70000.0,85000.0,75000.0,80000.0,110000.0,125000.0,55000.0,45000.0,55000.0,45000.0,42000.0,38000.0,50000.0,45000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,45000.0,60000.0,35000.0,30000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,28000.0,30000.0,24000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,16000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,11500.0,14000.0,14500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[130000.0,150000.0,140000.0,150000.0,200000.0,600000.0,350000.0,160000.0,180000.0,220000.0,200000.0,130000.0,130000.0,170000.0,130000.0,200000.0,280000.0,330000.0,100000.0,90000.0,115000.0,90000.0,75000.0,70000.0,105000.0,90000.0,70000.0,70000.0,80000.0,70000.0,75000.0,68000.0,70000.0,65000.0,80000.0,100000.0,85000.0,70000.0,85000.0,150000.0,260000.0,100000.0,70000.0,65000.0,65000.0,65000.0,110000.0,150000.0,60000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,40000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,46000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,34000.0,31000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,50000.0,110000.0,130000.0,55000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,55000.0,45000.0,45000.0,48000.0,58000.0,50000.0,45000.0,42000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[80000.0,85000.0,90000.0,95000.0,115000.0,320000.0,145000.0,65000.0,75000.0,72000.0,76000.0,62000.0,62000.0,68000.0,52000.0,48000.0,62000.0,150000.0,56000.0,40000.0,42000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,66000.0,56000.0,44000.0,46000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,43000.0,52000.0,82000.0,72000.0,66000.0,56000.0,60000.0,145000.0,56000.0,46000.0,41000.0,36000.0,39000.0,42000.0,46000.0,33000.0,36000.0,26000.0,21000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,29000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,25000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,25000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,20000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,15000.0,21000.0,19000.0,36000.0,16000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,16000.0,23000.0,16000.0,17000.0,30000.0,21000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[65000.0,78000.0,62000.0,68000.0,95000.0,285000.0,165000.0,75000.0,92000.0,78000.0,52000.0,38000.0,42000.0,68000.0,48000.0,55000.0,78000.0,110000.0,34000.0,26000.0,42000.0,28000.0,22000.0,18000.0,32000.0,22000.0,18000.0,15500.0,17000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14500.0,19000.0,15000.0,14000.0,11500.0,15000.0,18500.0,26000.0,31000.0,48000.0,21000.0,15000.0,11500.0,12500.0,15500.0,22000.0,26500.0,16500.0,12500.0,8500.0,7200.0,7500.0,7800.0,7000.0,6800.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,8200.0,9000.0,11500.0,8000.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6800.0,7500.0,8500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6200.0,7000.0,7500.0,6200.0,5800.0,6200.0,6000.0,6300.0,6500.0,7500.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,5500.0,5800.0,6000.0,6200.0,6800.0,7500.0,12500.0,14500.0,7000.0,6200.0,6000.0,6300.0,5800.0,6000.0,5800.0,6000.0,6500.0,7800.0,6200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5600.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[85000.0,115000.0,95000.0,85000.0,130000.0,800000.0,420000.0,175000.0,265000.0,195000.0,160000.0,95000.0,85000.0,78000.0,88000.0,72000.0,78000.0,210000.0,62000.0,48000.0,92000.0,55000.0,48000.0,40000.0,130000.0,95000.0,45000.0,68000.0,48000.0,40000.0,35000.0,32000.0,36000.0,38000.0,140000.0,85000.0,62000.0,55000.0,58000.0,55000.0,145000.0,68000.0,52000.0,58000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,88000.0,38000.0,32000.0,34000.0,28000.0,25000.0,38000.0,28000.0,22000.0,21000.0,28000.0,18000.0,16000.0,20000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,11000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,13000.0,11000.0,13000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,8500.0,9500.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,15000.0,17000.0,32000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8000.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[55000.0,60000.0,65000.0,75000.0,110000.0,380000.0,180000.0,100000.0,90000.0,80000.0,75000.0,65000.0,70000.0,100000.0,70000.0,85000.0,130000.0,170000.0,80000.0,65000.0,65000.0,55000.0,55000.0,45000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,35000.0,40000.0,45000.0,50000.0,40000.0,40000.0,35000.0,35000.0,45000.0,60000.0,40000.0,35000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,35000.0,40000.0,32000.0,28000.0,32000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,28000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,16000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,8000.0,8000.0,10000.0,12000.0,20000.0,10000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[95000.0,88000.0,102000.0,135000.0,175000.0,420000.0,310000.0,145000.0,165000.0,150000.0,135000.0,90000.0,78000.0,105000.0,92000.0,110000.0,135000.0,165000.0,62000.0,48000.0,58000.0,72000.0,52000.0,44000.0,38000.0,36000.0,42000.0,46000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,38000.0,44000.0,40000.0,48000.0,34000.0,42000.0,58000.0,68000.0,75000.0,98000.0,64000.0,42000.0,36000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,44000.0,58000.0,42000.0,32000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,18000.0,22000.0,26000.0,19000.0,16000.0,17000.0,15000.0,18000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,13000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8200.0,11000.0,9500.0,8500.0,7500.0,7800.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,7500.0,6500.0,6200.0,6000.0,6400.0,6100.0,6300.0,5600.0,5800.0,5400.0,5600.0,6200.0,7000.0,8500.0,9800.0,6000.0,5400.0,5200.0,5500.0,4900.0,5200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4500.0,4100.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,3800.0,4100.0,3600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[90000.0,115000.0,135000.0,165000.0,225000.0,480000.0,285000.0,150000.0,185000.0,140000.0,115000.0,92000.0,105000.0,98000.0,165000.0,205000.0,265000.0,410000.0,185000.0,125000.0,105000.0,88000.0,78000.0,62000.0,72000.0,68000.0,88000.0,62000.0,82000.0,58000.0,98000.0,62000.0,57000.0,62000.0,88000.0,135000.0,95000.0,78000.0,145000.0,72000.0,155000.0,95000.0,105000.0,72000.0,68000.0,105000.0,88000.0,135000.0,115000.0,72000.0,62000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,43000.0,36000.0,42000.0,47000.0,52000.0,46000.0,52000.0,42000.0,47000.0,41000.0,47000.0,40000.0,44000.0,36000.0,42000.0,44000.0,47000.0,36000.0,42000.0,46000.0,52000.0,41000.0,47000.0,41000.0,57000.0,36000.0,62000.0,46000.0,41000.0,33000.0,39000.0,44000.0,47000.0,39000.0,50000.0,41000.0,39000.0,33000.0,42000.0,47000.0,43000.0,34000.0,42000.0,62000.0,47000.0,50000.0,75000.0,95000.0,115000.0,62000.0,47000.0,44000.0,41000.0,33000.0,39000.0,36000.0,41000.0,39000.0,55000.0,36000.0,34000.0,29000.0,36000.0,39000.0,37000.0,29000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[73000.0,95000.0,126000.0,102000.0,149000.0,548000.0,332000.0,195000.0,174000.0,171000.0,253000.0,190000.0,166000.0,139000.0,183000.0,127000.0,132000.0,243000.0,217000.0,147000.0,139000.0,135000.0,155000.0,122000.0,119000.0,107000.0,120000.0,118000.0,164000.0,133000.0,114000.0,104000.0,109000.0,137000.0,179000.0,158000.0,146000.0,152000.0,225000.0,186000.0,149000.0,131000.0,114000.0,133000.0,157000.0,188000.0,219000.0,439000.0,318000.0,271000.0,329000.0,386000.0,319000.0,274000.0,229000.0,211000.0,243000.0,348000.0,266000.0,203000.0,184000.0,159000.0,142000.0,133000.0,128000.0,135000.0,114000.0,106000.0,110000.0,119000.0,130000.0,111000.0,116000.0,107000.0,115000.0,119000.0,144000.0,171000.0,139000.0,115000.0,113000.0,154000.0,158000.0,122000.0,120000.0,124000.0,140000.0,140000.0,171000.0,206000.0,165000.0,132000.0,131000.0,170000.0,181000.0,147000.0,150000.0,140000.0,154000.0,159000.0,232000.0,473000.0,684000.0,450000.0,289000.0,249000.0,234000.0,214000.0,205000.0,190000.0,185000.0,180000.0,215000.0,264000.0,319000.0,274000.0,250000.0,240000.0,233000.0,220000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[90000.0,95000.0,100000.0,110000.0,150000.0,330000.0,190000.0,110000.0,110000.0,120000.0,100000.0,75000.0,70000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,75000.0,80000.0,50000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,26000.0,26000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,32000.0,42000.0,28000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,26000.0,28000.0,22000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,13500.0,18000.0,18000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,14500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[111800.0,118500.0,134200.0,168700.0,317400.0,1447000.0,618000.0,331500.0,226800.0,183200.0,151900.0,128400.0,107600.0,96800.0,104900.0,135700.0,245300.0,382600.0,189500.0,124800.0,105300.0,107400.0,115800.0,101700.0,86400.0,79100.0,85600.0,89700.0,114200.0,189800.0,101600.0,75800.0,80100.0,82700.0,79400.0,73600.0,70300.0,65800.0,74900.0,85200.0,143600.0,111400.0,76900.0,65400.0,70800.0,76200.0,81500.0,124800.0,81200.0,69800.0,87600.0,66700.0,61900.0,56800.0,52700.0,45600.0,46300.0,49400.0,46800.0,51200.0,50100.0,48200.0,52700.0,58900.0,76400.0,61700.0,51500.0,42900.0,44700.0,43500.0,41300.0,38600.0,39200.0,36700.0,41300.0,45100.0,59800.0,49700.0,41600.0,35400.0,37200.0,38600.0,36100.0,34900.0,32600.0,30400.0,34500.0,38800.0,48900.0,42700.0,36600.0,31200.0,32900.0,34100.0,32200.0,29100.0,28700.0,30600.0,36200.0,45800.0,67500.0,96800.0,243600.0,112400.0,62300.0,46800.0,41200.0,37500.0,33800.0,30200.0,36100.0,41500.0,55900.0,48600.0,44700.0,36400.0,39200.0,37600.0,34500.0,31800.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[26000.0,24000.0,29000.0,31000.0,35000.0,82000.0,48000.0,33000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,29000.0,36000.0,52000.0,42000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,26000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,18000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,22000.0,25000.0,30000.0,32000.0,42000.0,65000.0,95000.0,68000.0,52000.0,45000.0,56000.0,58000.0,52000.0,35000.0,26000.0,22000.0,25000.0,19000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,8000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,9500.0,13000.0,16000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[45000.0,40000.0,42000.0,48000.0,70000.0,180000.0,95000.0,55000.0,50000.0,60000.0,75000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,45000.0,65000.0,90000.0,50000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,36000.0,32000.0,60000.0,40000.0,35000.0,32000.0,42000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,25000.0,40000.0,30000.0,32000.0,45000.0,42000.0,35000.0,60000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,40000.0,45000.0,50000.0,32000.0,28000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,13000.0,15000.0,22000.0,14000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,14000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0]}},{"title":"Nokia","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Nokia\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[123910,121946,131304,107576,125166,132676,121373,112897,135381,148984,126689,156128,201450,210594,144906,99012,106772,120203,165514,160714,142984,147024,123697,113565,130544,117016,122918,119340,127773,106166,124170,119747,120497,142757,120309,111736,116527,108296,109084,95412,108709,103757,104573,110622,117765,124123,109471,97955,97209,92507,89770,111496,127441,217245,142658,96412,89854,104863,85816,84827,113143,85940,81650,71793,72334,73986,78432,74774,79103,88193,74784,69039,78404,67247,70409,67806,66310,59477,75187,80868,73959,82500,72320,63231,69806,94552,99800,76202,86400,91785,93384,100300,100647,107648,91503,101058,109274,96942,84152,68534,68938,60185,64666,68120,74392,83016,76947,68910,81456,68962,95991,71343,63478,57085,65124,88449,86126,84590,76816,68710],"flat_reference_value":16812.29010865427,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[205000.0,195000.0,200000.0,190000.0,245000.0,210000.0,200000.0,195000.0,200000.0,210000.0,220000.0,230000.0,340000.0,420000.0,460000.0,330000.0,320000.0,310000.0,285000.0,290000.0,275000.0,280000.0,265000.0,255000.0,275000.0,280000.0,285000.0,250000.0,245000.0,235000.0,230000.0,235000.0,225000.0,235000.0,225000.0,220000.0,235000.0,240000.0,235000.0,215000.0,210000.0,205000.0,200000.0,205000.0,200000.0,205000.0,195000.0,195000.0,210000.0,200000.0,210000.0,220000.0,210000.0,195000.0,190000.0,195000.0,190000.0,230000.0,200000.0,195000.0,230000.0,205000.0,210000.0,195000.0,190000.0,185000.0,185000.0,190000.0,185000.0,190000.0,180000.0,180000.0,190000.0,180000.0,190000.0,175000.0,175000.0,170000.0,170000.0,175000.0,175000.0,180000.0,170000.0,170000.0,185000.0,230000.0,255000.0,185000.0,180000.0,175000.0,170000.0,175000.0,170000.0,180000.0,170000.0,165000.0,180000.0,170000.0,175000.0,165000.0,165000.0,160000.0,160000.0,165000.0,160000.0,165000.0,155000.0,155000.0,170000.0,160000.0,165000.0,155000.0,155000.0,150000.0,150000.0,155000.0,150000.0,155000.0,150000.0,150000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[205000.0,195000.0,190000.0,185000.0,245000.0,185000.0,180000.0,185000.0,190000.0,188000.0,192000.0,215000.0,285000.0,360000.0,330000.0,225000.0,230000.0,205000.0,198000.0,210000.0,195000.0,192000.0,188000.0,185000.0,192000.0,215000.0,205000.0,182000.0,180000.0,170000.0,175000.0,178000.0,174000.0,176000.0,172000.0,175000.0,182000.0,190000.0,185000.0,168000.0,182000.0,165000.0,168000.0,166000.0,164000.0,170000.0,162000.0,165000.0,175000.0,178000.0,182000.0,185000.0,180000.0,195000.0,210000.0,185000.0,178000.0,192000.0,175000.0,178000.0,560000.0,265000.0,195000.0,175000.0,168000.0,172000.0,168000.0,165000.0,158000.0,160000.0,155000.0,158000.0,168000.0,155000.0,162000.0,152000.0,150000.0,145000.0,152000.0,150000.0,148000.0,150000.0,146000.0,148000.0,158000.0,235000.0,310000.0,165000.0,155000.0,148000.0,152000.0,148000.0,142000.0,146000.0,140000.0,144000.0,160000.0,210000.0,155000.0,142000.0,145000.0,138000.0,140000.0,138000.0,135000.0,136000.0,132000.0,135000.0,142000.0,135000.0,138000.0,128000.0,126000.0,122000.0,125000.0,124000.0,122000.0,145000.0,125000.0,122000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[215000.0,208000.0,212000.0,198000.0,265000.0,224000.0,210000.0,205000.0,215000.0,218000.0,222000.0,240000.0,275000.0,490000.0,440000.0,265000.0,245000.0,230000.0,222000.0,235000.0,228000.0,220000.0,215000.0,225000.0,210000.0,260000.0,245000.0,205000.0,195000.0,188000.0,182000.0,189000.0,185000.0,192000.0,188000.0,195000.0,190000.0,225000.0,210000.0,178000.0,182000.0,169000.0,165000.0,168000.0,172000.0,175000.0,168000.0,174000.0,172000.0,168000.0,178000.0,175000.0,168000.0,160000.0,164000.0,158000.0,162000.0,169000.0,163000.0,171000.0,620000.0,380000.0,210000.0,175000.0,168000.0,172000.0,160000.0,155000.0,152000.0,158000.0,154000.0,159000.0,155000.0,148000.0,152000.0,142000.0,145000.0,138000.0,136000.0,139000.0,143000.0,147000.0,144000.0,150000.0,146000.0,240000.0,330000.0,165000.0,148000.0,139000.0,135000.0,138000.0,141000.0,143000.0,137000.0,142000.0,140000.0,138000.0,136000.0,131000.0,133000.0,127000.0,125000.0,128000.0,132000.0,135000.0,130000.0,134000.0,132000.0,128000.0,130000.0,124000.0,126000.0,121000.0,119000.0,122000.0,125000.0,127000.0,123000.0,126000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[148000.0,150000.0,145000.0,138000.0,155000.0,135000.0,128000.0,130000.0,135000.0,140000.0,142000.0,145000.0,185000.0,290000.0,200000.0,160000.0,170000.0,150000.0,140000.0,145000.0,140000.0,138000.0,135000.0,130000.0,135000.0,165000.0,140000.0,128000.0,125000.0,118000.0,115000.0,117000.0,120000.0,125000.0,122000.0,115000.0,120000.0,140000.0,128000.0,118000.0,115000.0,108000.0,105000.0,107000.0,110000.0,112000.0,110000.0,105000.0,110000.0,112000.0,118000.0,122000.0,115000.0,105000.0,102000.0,100000.0,103000.0,105000.0,104000.0,100000.0,105000.0,102000.0,104000.0,100000.0,98000.0,94000.0,92000.0,93000.0,96000.0,98000.0,97000.0,94000.0,96000.0,98000.0,97000.0,92000.0,90000.0,86000.0,85000.0,86000.0,88000.0,90000.0,89000.0,86000.0,90000.0,160000.0,115000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,83000.0,84000.0,86000.0,87000.0,86000.0,83000.0,86000.0,90000.0,88000.0,84000.0,82000.0,79000.0,78000.0,79000.0,82000.0,83000.0,81000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,80000.0,77000.0,76000.0,73000.0,72000.0,73000.0,75000.0,76000.0,75000.0,72000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[245000.0,235000.0,235000.0,228000.0,275000.0,232000.0,225000.0,228000.0,225000.0,228000.0,232000.0,250000.0,300000.0,370000.0,305000.0,255000.0,255000.0,245000.0,240000.0,250000.0,235000.0,235000.0,225000.0,225000.0,228000.0,225000.0,215000.0,205000.0,205000.0,195000.0,195000.0,198000.0,190000.0,192000.0,185000.0,182000.0,188000.0,180000.0,180000.0,170000.0,175000.0,165000.0,165000.0,165000.0,160000.0,165000.0,158000.0,155000.0,160000.0,150000.0,155000.0,160000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,148000.0,142000.0,145000.0,140000.0,140000.0,145000.0,135000.0,140000.0,133000.0,132000.0,128000.0,130000.0,128000.0,123000.0,125000.0,122000.0,120000.0,125000.0,118000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,110000.0,112000.0,112000.0,108000.0,110000.0,108000.0,107000.0,112000.0,140000.0,122000.0,108000.0,108000.0,103000.0,104000.0,104000.0,100000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,97000.0,98000.0,95000.0,96000.0,97000.0,94000.0,96000.0,93000.0,94000.0,98000.0,93000.0,95000.0,92000.0,93000.0,90000.0,91000.0,92000.0,90000.0,115000.0,98000.0,92000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[320000.0,290000.0,280000.0,270000.0,330000.0,270000.0,250000.0,255000.0,270000.0,275000.0,280000.0,270000.0,560000.0,700000.0,380000.0,260000.0,250000.0,240000.0,230000.0,300000.0,250000.0,240000.0,230000.0,210000.0,240000.0,430000.0,250000.0,210000.0,200000.0,190000.0,180000.0,180000.0,185000.0,185000.0,175000.0,160000.0,170000.0,300000.0,190000.0,170000.0,310000.0,190000.0,170000.0,160000.0,160000.0,165000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,150000.0,145000.0,130000.0,130000.0,120000.0,140000.0,125000.0,135000.0,135000.0,125000.0,115000.0,125000.0,135000.0,125000.0,115000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,110000.0,115000.0,115000.0,110000.0,105000.0,110000.0,120000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,100000.0,380000.0,170000.0,120000.0,115000.0,110000.0,105000.0,110000.0,110000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,175000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,90000.0,95000.0,130000.0,110000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,90000.0,95000.0,100000.0,280000.0,150000.0,100000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[65214.0,69842.0,64378.0,70512.0,85367.0,74891.0,67843.0,65109.0,68327.0,65480.0,70155.0,80342.0,95218.0,182463.0,119874.0,90312.0,85209.0,79876.0,75243.0,95108.0,80234.0,77891.0,74562.0,69873.0,68214.0,95437.0,74892.0,65123.0,61874.0,58211.0,55208.0,60145.0,58367.0,59823.0,57654.0,54891.0,60128.0,70345.0,59872.0,55109.0,52384.0,48213.0,46127.0,48392.0,52176.0,49843.0,48109.0,45238.0,48352.0,50218.0,60174.0,62389.0,58112.0,50347.0,48265.0,50418.0,52376.0,68294.0,55123.0,50187.0,52134.0,55321.0,50287.0,48192.0,46318.0,44127.0,42384.0,44219.0,46153.0,45128.0,44207.0,42165.0,44312.0,46284.0,52347.0,48193.0,44276.0,40382.0,38415.0,40128.0,42234.0,41187.0,40092.0,38347.0,40218.0,65387.0,55129.0,42376.0,40192.0,37284.0,35312.0,36187.0,38245.0,40163.0,38219.0,35128.0,36234.0,38291.0,36145.0,35218.0,34127.0,45283.0,38142.0,33187.0,34265.0,33194.0,32218.0,30145.0,32176.0,42183.0,38247.0,33129.0,31184.0,29213.0,28147.0,28392.0,30128.0,31245.0,30187.0,28234.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[141000.0,141000.0,134000.0,128000.0,140000.0,122000.0,115000.0,118000.0,132000.0,136000.0,133000.0,125000.0,190000.0,610000.0,261000.0,173000.0,162000.0,164000.0,143000.0,146000.0,173000.0,169000.0,156000.0,139000.0,133000.0,236000.0,157000.0,130000.0,127000.0,124000.0,117000.0,120000.0,150000.0,156000.0,128000.0,117000.0,120000.0,201000.0,139000.0,118000.0,116000.0,112000.0,106000.0,109000.0,132000.0,120000.0,116000.0,106000.0,124000.0,145000.0,160000.0,144000.0,132000.0,116000.0,110000.0,112000.0,122000.0,124000.0,120000.0,110000.0,114000.0,145000.0,118000.0,112000.0,110000.0,106000.0,101000.0,103000.0,125000.0,126000.0,110000.0,101000.0,104000.0,129000.0,118000.0,122000.0,100000.0,97000.0,92000.0,94000.0,114000.0,104000.0,100000.0,92000.0,108000.0,505000.0,200000.0,127000.0,104000.0,101000.0,95000.0,98000.0,106000.0,108000.0,104000.0,95000.0,94000.0,113000.0,97000.0,92000.0,90000.0,88000.0,83000.0,85000.0,92000.0,94000.0,90000.0,83000.0,87000.0,122000.0,100000.0,85000.0,83000.0,81000.0,77000.0,78000.0,85000.0,87000.0,83000.0,77000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[100000.0,103000.0,101000.0,95000.0,98000.0,87000.0,84000.0,86000.0,95000.0,98000.0,95000.0,90000.0,108000.0,145000.0,150000.0,108000.0,103000.0,97000.0,92000.0,105000.0,108000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,90000.0,105000.0,96000.0,88000.0,86000.0,81000.0,77000.0,79000.0,88000.0,91000.0,88000.0,84000.0,85000.0,96000.0,88000.0,82000.0,80000.0,75000.0,72000.0,74000.0,82000.0,85000.0,82000.0,78000.0,88000.0,92000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,79000.0,76000.0,78000.0,86000.0,89000.0,86000.0,82000.0,92000.0,95000.0,93000.0,88000.0,86000.0,81000.0,78000.0,80000.0,88000.0,91000.0,88000.0,84000.0,75000.0,78000.0,76000.0,72000.0,70000.0,66000.0,63000.0,65000.0,72000.0,75000.0,72000.0,68000.0,80000.0,95000.0,100000.0,82000.0,78000.0,72000.0,69000.0,71000.0,79000.0,82000.0,79000.0,75000.0,65000.0,68000.0,66000.0,62000.0,60000.0,56000.0,54000.0,55000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,63000.0,61000.0,58000.0,56000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,58000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[108000.0,115000.0,118000.0,145000.0,195000.0,112000.0,105000.0,110000.0,102000.0,128000.0,115000.0,165000.0,285000.0,475000.0,230000.0,158000.0,212000.0,148000.0,132000.0,245000.0,148000.0,198000.0,140000.0,122000.0,114000.0,365000.0,225000.0,148000.0,198000.0,156000.0,132000.0,124000.0,128000.0,156000.0,140000.0,165000.0,122000.0,330000.0,208000.0,156000.0,140000.0,148000.0,124000.0,124000.0,224000.0,165000.0,132000.0,148000.0,114000.0,122000.0,262000.0,156000.0,140000.0,124000.0,116000.0,120000.0,174000.0,156000.0,182000.0,156000.0,114000.0,106000.0,110000.0,208000.0,148000.0,140000.0,116000.0,120000.0,166000.0,172000.0,128000.0,110000.0,114000.0,196000.0,148000.0,128000.0,122000.0,110000.0,124000.0,106000.0,174000.0,148000.0,110000.0,122000.0,106000.0,298000.0,174000.0,140000.0,116000.0,102000.0,182000.0,106000.0,116000.0,102000.0,140000.0,98000.0,98000.0,104000.0,98000.0,94000.0,90000.0,90000.0,94000.0,156000.0,138000.0,104000.0,98000.0,132000.0,96000.0,92000.0,106000.0,108000.0,102000.0,90000.0,86000.0,86000.0,90000.0,88000.0,86000.0,84000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[555000.0,430000.0,495000.0,460000.0,580000.0,415000.0,405000.0,395000.0,430000.0,470000.0,455000.0,405000.0,465000.0,770000.0,570000.0,480000.0,450000.0,475000.0,610000.0,495000.0,450000.0,490000.0,475000.0,425000.0,370000.0,430000.0,435000.0,385000.0,360000.0,345000.0,355000.0,330000.0,360000.0,395000.0,380000.0,340000.0,360000.0,665000.0,550000.0,375000.0,385000.0,335000.0,330000.0,320000.0,350000.0,380000.0,370000.0,330000.0,355000.0,330000.0,400000.0,370000.0,345000.0,315000.0,295000.0,305000.0,330000.0,360000.0,350000.0,310000.0,395000.0,320000.0,355000.0,340000.0,320000.0,305000.0,300000.0,295000.0,320000.0,350000.0,340000.0,300000.0,350000.0,355000.0,570000.0,435000.0,355000.0,325000.0,305000.0,315000.0,340000.0,370000.0,360000.0,320000.0,370000.0,580000.0,455000.0,385000.0,360000.0,465000.0,375000.0,330000.0,360000.0,395000.0,380000.0,340000.0,410000.0,400000.0,460000.0,430000.0,400000.0,845000.0,505000.0,405000.0,420000.0,435000.0,425000.0,375000.0,410000.0,540000.0,500000.0,405000.0,380000.0,400000.0,360000.0,350000.0,380000.0,415000.0,400000.0,355000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[385000.0,355000.0,405000.0,375000.0,345000.0,365000.0,330000.0,345000.0,395000.0,475000.0,425000.0,375000.0,380000.0,385000.0,510000.0,405000.0,345000.0,380000.0,310000.0,330000.0,380000.0,455000.0,405000.0,360000.0,350000.0,320000.0,395000.0,340000.0,315000.0,345000.0,295000.0,310000.0,360000.0,425000.0,380000.0,340000.0,370000.0,415000.0,390000.0,350000.0,320000.0,345000.0,300000.0,315000.0,375000.0,455000.0,400000.0,355000.0,350000.0,325000.0,395000.0,330000.0,305000.0,330000.0,290000.0,300000.0,350000.0,405000.0,370000.0,330000.0,345000.0,315000.0,380000.0,330000.0,305000.0,335000.0,285000.0,300000.0,350000.0,400000.0,365000.0,325000.0,315000.0,285000.0,345000.0,295000.0,270000.0,295000.0,255000.0,270000.0,315000.0,360000.0,330000.0,290000.0,330000.0,295000.0,355000.0,305000.0,280000.0,310000.0,265000.0,280000.0,330000.0,370000.0,335000.0,295000.0,335000.0,285000.0,350000.0,300000.0,360000.0,305000.0,265000.0,280000.0,335000.0,365000.0,335000.0,295000.0,315000.0,275000.0,340000.0,285000.0,265000.0,300000.0,250000.0,260000.0,305000.0,345000.0,315000.0,280000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[300000.0,295000.0,290000.0,280000.0,275000.0,265000.0,265000.0,260000.0,270000.0,280000.0,300000.0,310000.0,300000.0,340000.0,380000.0,330000.0,310000.0,290000.0,280000.0,275000.0,285000.0,290000.0,295000.0,295000.0,285000.0,290000.0,280000.0,265000.0,260000.0,245000.0,245000.0,240000.0,245000.0,250000.0,250000.0,250000.0,240000.0,245000.0,240000.0,230000.0,225000.0,215000.0,215000.0,210000.0,215000.0,220000.0,220000.0,220000.0,215000.0,215000.0,225000.0,230000.0,220000.0,210000.0,205000.0,200000.0,205000.0,210000.0,210000.0,210000.0,205000.0,215000.0,225000.0,205000.0,195000.0,190000.0,185000.0,185000.0,190000.0,195000.0,195000.0,195000.0,190000.0,190000.0,195000.0,185000.0,180000.0,172000.0,170000.0,170000.0,175000.0,178000.0,180000.0,178000.0,175000.0,178000.0,172000.0,165000.0,162000.0,155000.0,155000.0,152000.0,158000.0,165000.0,165000.0,160000.0,158000.0,160000.0,155000.0,150000.0,148000.0,142000.0,142000.0,140000.0,145000.0,150000.0,148000.0,145000.0,143000.0,145000.0,142000.0,138000.0,135000.0,130000.0,130000.0,128000.0,132000.0,135000.0,135000.0,132000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[55000.0,72000.0,64000.0,125000.0,55000.0,60000.0,48000.0,52000.0,62000.0,57000.0,55000.0,63000.0,58000.0,138000.0,102000.0,85000.0,55000.0,54000.0,50000.0,55000.0,72000.0,62000.0,56000.0,60000.0,52000.0,82000.0,62000.0,56000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,60000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,48000.0,68000.0,58000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,45000.0,47000.0,58000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,45000.0,58000.0,78000.0,60000.0,52000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,60000.0,55000.0,54000.0,56000.0,42000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,44000.0,46000.0,42000.0,45000.0,52000.0,65000.0,50000.0,48000.0,38000.0,52000.0,45000.0,40000.0,36000.0,40000.0,35000.0,37000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,35000.0,48000.0,42000.0,38000.0,34000.0,37000.0,32000.0,34000.0,40000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,36000.0,50000.0,43000.0,38000.0,35000.0,38000.0,33000.0,36000.0,42000.0,38000.0,35000.0,38000.0,37000.0,52000.0,45000.0,40000.0,36000.0,38000.0,34000.0,37000.0,43000.0,39000.0,36000.0,39000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[28600.0,27000.0,26300.0,25400.0,27000.0,25200.0,24100.0,25000.0,26900.0,27800.0,26300.0,24200.0,29000.0,43800.0,67500.0,49800.0,39200.0,34100.0,30900.0,30200.0,31800.0,33700.0,31400.0,28500.0,29200.0,35100.0,32900.0,30400.0,29800.0,27900.0,26600.0,27300.0,29200.0,30600.0,28800.0,26000.0,27800.0,29500.0,28400.0,26800.0,26200.0,24700.0,23800.0,24400.0,25800.0,27100.0,25500.0,23200.0,25600.0,26700.0,30200.0,31500.0,28600.0,26900.0,25800.0,26400.0,27900.0,29100.0,27400.0,25100.0,26700.0,26300.0,27200.0,25900.0,25300.0,23900.0,23100.0,23700.0,24900.0,25800.0,24400.0,22500.0,24600.0,25900.0,30300.0,32200.0,28900.0,27100.0,25100.0,25500.0,26700.0,27600.0,26100.0,24000.0,26700.0,47500.0,40100.0,31100.0,28400.0,26900.0,25000.0,25700.0,26700.0,27500.0,26000.0,23700.0,25500.0,26900.0,26200.0,25000.0,24600.0,26100.0,23500.0,23900.0,24800.0,25600.0,24100.0,22100.0,23900.0,24800.0,25200.0,23800.0,23200.0,22000.0,21300.0,21800.0,22700.0,23500.0,22100.0,20400.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[73500.0,80500.0,77000.0,70000.0,68600.0,66500.0,63000.0,63000.0,71400.0,73500.0,72100.0,64400.0,78750.0,180000.0,120000.0,75000.0,73500.0,71250.0,67500.0,67500.0,76500.0,78750.0,77250.0,69000.0,63000.0,69000.0,66000.0,60000.0,58800.0,57000.0,54000.0,54000.0,61200.0,63000.0,61800.0,55200.0,54600.0,59800.0,57200.0,52000.0,50960.0,49400.0,46800.0,46800.0,53040.0,54600.0,53560.0,47840.0,50400.0,55200.0,52800.0,48000.0,47040.0,45600.0,43200.0,43200.0,48960.0,50400.0,49440.0,44160.0,48300.0,52900.0,50600.0,46000.0,45080.0,43700.0,41400.0,41400.0,46920.0,48300.0,47380.0,42320.0,44100.0,48300.0,46200.0,42000.0,41160.0,39900.0,37800.0,37800.0,42840.0,44100.0,43260.0,38640.0,37800.0,41400.0,39600.0,36000.0,35280.0,34200.0,32400.0,32400.0,36720.0,37800.0,37080.0,33120.0,32550.0,35650.0,34100.0,31000.0,30380.0,29450.0,27900.0,27900.0,31620.0,32550.0,31930.0,28520.0,28350.0,31050.0,29700.0,27000.0,26460.0,25650.0,24300.0,24300.0,27540.0,28350.0,27810.0,24840.0]}},{"title":"Xavier Becerra","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Xavier Becerra\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3110,4920,5666,5230,17589,32118,35141,5454,4260,9257,11161,29893,28683,20720,25129,16950,11228,17903,9020,7186,12929,9409,7809,9137,21543,8842,22334,10008,22613,22844,7508,6718,8673,19545,25141,8087,16860,26774,10682,8156,7245,10701,8659,8242,8045,10212,8009,7291,7675,7455,7655,8992,8163,11947,10802,35657,10233,19230,51150,234203,113571,74799,100579,35931,28321,22762,24120,19849,19202,34889,18153,18107,26577,20227,19282,20507,16848,20127,24405,18177,13491,17214,21193,15487,17920,17001,17450,16812,13931,15378,15465,13330,14440,17388,13086,11711,13835,16658,16237,15719,12967,13308,39365,33860,20269,23666,297026,42068,113393,142125,42170,57349,39867,26105,23913,30551,46073,46197,34474,18658],"flat_reference_value":16958.983630231513,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[4300.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,5200.0,5600.0,5100.0,5200.0,6100.0,12000.0,85000.0,52000.0,25000.0,19000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,16000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,13000.0,11000.0,12000.0,18000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,14000.0,25000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,30000.0,260000.0,105000.0,145000.0,190000.0,85000.0,65000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,44000.0,41000.0,39000.0,46000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,40000.0,36000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,25000.0,22000.0,29000.0,22000.0,21000.0,85000.0,36000.0,26000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[7800.0,8400.0,8100.0,7900.0,8600.0,12500.0,36000.0,11200.0,9400.0,10800.0,28500.0,135000.0,88000.0,46000.0,29000.0,22000.0,19500.0,18200.0,17500.0,19000.0,28000.0,21000.0,17800.0,16500.0,24500.0,21000.0,26500.0,19800.0,22500.0,34000.0,18500.0,19200.0,21500.0,32000.0,58000.0,19500.0,23000.0,48000.0,21500.0,18400.0,17900.0,17200.0,18600.0,17500.0,18900.0,18200.0,19500.0,17800.0,19200.0,18500.0,22000.0,21500.0,23500.0,24000.0,22500.0,45000.0,26000.0,31000.0,85000.0,480000.0,96000.0,145000.0,235000.0,58000.0,42000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28500.0,31000.0,26500.0,25000.0,24000.0,28500.0,46000.0,37000.0,29500.0,24500.0,23500.0,24000.0,21500.0,23000.0,21500.0,24500.0,22000.0,21000.0,19500.0,18800.0,19200.0,20500.0,20000.0,19500.0,18500.0,20500.0,19800.0,22500.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,26000.0,25500.0,22000.0,25000.0,115000.0,48000.0,56000.0,52000.0,18500.0,46000.0,17500.0,15500.0,21000.0,18500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[11200.0,10500.0,11800.0,12400.0,14200.0,18500.0,22100.0,12900.0,11400.0,13100.0,19800.0,124500.0,78200.0,39500.0,31200.0,26400.0,24100.0,23800.0,22500.0,28400.0,35100.0,24900.0,21800.0,22300.0,27600.0,23400.0,28900.0,25100.0,24600.0,32800.0,26200.0,23500.0,24100.0,29800.0,46200.0,21500.0,25800.0,29400.0,23100.0,21800.0,22400.0,20900.0,21500.0,19800.0,20600.0,21200.0,19400.0,18900.0,21400.0,20800.0,23600.0,24100.0,25300.0,29800.0,26400.0,28100.0,27200.0,29500.0,68400.0,625000.0,184000.0,248000.0,362000.0,89000.0,58200.0,49500.0,52100.0,61400.0,48200.0,44100.0,41800.0,45300.0,48100.0,39400.0,41200.0,38600.0,54200.0,68500.0,49200.0,43100.0,37800.0,34900.0,36200.0,32800.0,36100.0,33400.0,35800.0,38900.0,46200.0,34100.0,31500.0,32800.0,30900.0,29800.0,31200.0,28400.0,31500.0,32100.0,34600.0,33200.0,38100.0,35900.0,39400.0,42100.0,33800.0,32500.0,37400.0,31200.0,44800.0,26200.0,23100.0,20400.0,21800.0,19500.0,18200.0,17600.0,18400.0,17900.0,18800.0,17200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,7500.0,9000.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,12000.0,75000.0,45000.0,30000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,17000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,15000.0,22000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,12000.0,35000.0,260000.0,90000.0,150000.0,160000.0,70000.0,55000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,22000.0,18000.0,22000.0,13000.0,12000.0,28000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,15000.0,45000.0,20000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,17000.0,28000.0,65000.0,18000.0,15000.0,17000.0,30000.0,150000.0,85000.0,50000.0,48000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,42000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,38000.0,34000.0,42000.0,36000.0,40000.0,52000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,42000.0,55000.0,34000.0,36000.0,40000.0,36000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,38000.0,34000.0,55000.0,38000.0,38000.0,90000.0,330000.0,95000.0,150000.0,170000.0,65000.0,50000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,28000.0,26000.0,32000.0,24000.0,24000.0,48000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,34000.0,60000.0,42000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10000.0,9000.0,9500.0,8000.0,8000.0,10500.0,9500.0,8500.0,9000.0,10000.0,14000.0,42000.0,33000.0,18000.0,30000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,20000.0,13000.0,13000.0,11000.0,14000.0,13000.0,18000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,14000.0,16000.0,22000.0,12000.0,16000.0,13000.0,15000.0,13000.0,16000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,14000.0,25000.0,380000.0,100000.0,170000.0,190000.0,45000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,26000.0,20000.0,18000.0,16000.0,24000.0,42000.0,25000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,30000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,20000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,20000.0,14000.0,45000.0,10000.0,15000.0,55000.0,18000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,18000.0,15000.0,13000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[6800.0,6200.0,6500.0,6100.0,6400.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,7200.0,8100.0,12400.0,48200.0,61300.0,18200.0,16500.0,14300.0,13800.0,12900.0,11800.0,11200.0,13500.0,12400.0,11900.0,11300.0,12100.0,11800.0,13200.0,12500.0,14800.0,18200.0,12400.0,11800.0,13600.0,19800.0,27400.0,13400.0,12800.0,11500.0,12200.0,11800.0,11200.0,10500.0,9800.0,9200.0,10800.0,11200.0,10600.0,10100.0,11500.0,10800.0,13200.0,12100.0,11800.0,10900.0,11200.0,14800.0,12500.0,14200.0,18600.0,184500.0,112300.0,138700.0,235400.0,89200.0,54200.0,46200.0,38800.0,36500.0,41200.0,34800.0,31200.0,29800.0,32400.0,28500.0,26200.0,24800.0,23600.0,27100.0,26400.0,23800.0,22100.0,21800.0,23400.0,20800.0,22400.0,20200.0,21600.0,20500.0,19800.0,21200.0,18900.0,18200.0,19500.0,20100.0,19300.0,17800.0,18900.0,18400.0,19200.0,18800.0,17600.0,18300.0,22100.0,21400.0,18900.0,20500.0,24800.0,22400.0,31200.0,14800.0,16200.0,78400.0,32600.0,24800.0,19200.0,17800.0,18600.0,21400.0,19800.0,17200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6200.0,5600.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,4600.0,5800.0,4400.0,5000.0,5600.0,11500.0,38000.0,22000.0,12000.0,10500.0,9800.0,9200.0,8600.0,8000.0,7400.0,8200.0,8000.0,8600.0,9000.0,11500.0,10800.0,9500.0,9000.0,8600.0,8200.0,7600.0,7200.0,8400.0,10200.0,12500.0,8800.0,9800.0,9200.0,8800.0,8400.0,8000.0,7800.0,7400.0,7000.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,8600.0,9000.0,8800.0,11000.0,9500.0,8800.0,10500.0,9000.0,8600.0,9200.0,10500.0,16000.0,55000.0,30000.0,40000.0,30000.0,18000.0,15000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12800.0,13500.0,14500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10800.0,12000.0,11500.0,12500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10200.0,10000.0,11000.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,10200.0,9800.0,9000.0,8600.0,9200.0,9500.0,9200.0,9600.0,10000.0,9800.0,9600.0,9800.0,9500.0,9200.0,10500.0,9000.0,9200.0,10500.0,11500.0,10000.0,14000.0,7000.0,5500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,4000.0,4300.0,4500.0,4100.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1500.0,1400.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1700.0,5000.0,2000.0,1800.0,1900.0,2800.0,30000.0,15000.0,4500.0,8000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,7000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3500.0,3800.0,3500.0,7000.0,3800.0,3600.0,5000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,4000.0,7000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3800.0,5500.0,6000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4800.0,5000.0,4500.0,4800.0,7000.0,150000.0,60000.0,35000.0,110000.0,20000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9500.0,8500.0,10500.0,9500.0,8500.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5500.0,40000.0,13000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3800.0,3600.0,4100.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,4300.0,4700.0,4900.0,6800.0,12800.0,9900.0,16800.0,14500.0,9900.0,8900.0,9200.0,8500.0,8800.0,9400.0,8600.0,9100.0,8700.0,9300.0,9000.0,9600.0,9800.0,9200.0,9600.0,15200.0,10300.0,9800.0,10200.0,10900.0,18500.0,10600.0,9600.0,9100.0,9400.0,9800.0,10300.0,9800.0,9300.0,9600.0,9900.0,10400.0,9800.0,9500.0,9800.0,10300.0,14200.0,12800.0,11900.0,12600.0,11200.0,15100.0,12200.0,13800.0,21800.0,124000.0,69000.0,93000.0,119000.0,53000.0,48000.0,39000.0,42000.0,47000.0,59000.0,43000.0,37000.0,45000.0,29000.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,55000.0,32000.0,39000.0,26000.0,23000.0,28000.0,21000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17600.0,16600.0,26000.0,18000.0,15600.0,16100.0,24500.0,18600.0,17100.0,15100.0,14600.0,13800.0,14200.0,13500.0,14800.0,15300.0,13900.0,17600.0,16900.0,18300.0,21200.0,16600.0,32500.0,12100.0,8900.0,7600.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,7000.0,18500.0,56500.0,24500.0,16200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,3500.0,3900.0,4300.0,24000.0,13000.0,11000.0,9500.0,8000.0,7500.0,6800.0,6200.0,6000.0,17000.0,8000.0,7200.0,6400.0,6800.0,6300.0,6800.0,6300.0,6300.0,9000.0,6800.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,12000.0,7000.0,7600.0,7100.0,7600.0,7100.0,7100.0,6600.0,6100.0,6100.0,7200.0,7200.0,6600.0,6100.0,7600.0,8200.0,15000.0,12500.0,10500.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,35000.0,70000.0,22000.0,45000.0,80000.0,26000.0,21000.0,18000.0,28000.0,30000.0,22000.0,26000.0,23000.0,38000.0,60000.0,24000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,16000.0,18000.0,30000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,22000.0,15000.0,15000.0,12000.0,14000.0,30000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,13000.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,14000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,12000.0,12000.0,16000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[8700.0,7900.0,7100.0,6600.0,6200.0,6500.0,6900.0,7400.0,8000.0,9800.0,13500.0,9700.0,39500.0,21000.0,12500.0,9000.0,8200.0,8800.0,9300.0,9000.0,9500.0,10500.0,14500.0,9500.0,12500.0,11500.0,12800.0,13500.0,27000.0,38000.0,18000.0,15500.0,15000.0,19000.0,48000.0,16000.0,10500.0,8800.0,8300.0,8000.0,7400.0,7700.0,8100.0,8500.0,9000.0,9500.0,11500.0,9200.0,14000.0,12500.0,28000.0,46000.0,22000.0,16000.0,20000.0,34000.0,27000.0,21000.0,52000.0,146000.0,174000.0,126000.0,78000.0,38000.0,31000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19500.0,17000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,16000.0,17000.0,18500.0,21000.0,25000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,20000.0,15500.0,14500.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16000.0,17500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15000.0,16000.0,18500.0,43000.0,28000.0,22000.0,27000.0,67000.0,91000.0,188000.0,96000.0,37000.0,51000.0,40000.0,76000.0,52000.0,62000.0,39000.0,35000.0,38000.0,34000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,3800.0,3700.0,4500.0,4300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,4200.0,15000.0,16000.0,11000.0,9000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,8500.0,7500.0,8500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,7500.0,6500.0,6800.0,6200.0,6000.0,7500.0,6800.0,6000.0,6000.0,6200.0,6800.0,6000.0,6200.0,5800.0,5800.0,5500.0,5500.0,5800.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5500.0,5600.0,7500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6200.0,6500.0,9000.0,6500.0,7500.0,14000.0,42000.0,45000.0,60000.0,42000.0,25000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,16000.0,24000.0,19000.0,17000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,12000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9500.0,10500.0,10500.0,15000.0,10500.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14000.0,15000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1800.0,1200.0,1050.0,950.0,1250.0,3600.0,1850.0,1600.0,2150.0,4200.0,9500.0,5600.0,13200.0,4600.0,3900.0,3400.0,4100.0,3700.0,4500.0,5100.0,4600.0,4900.0,7100.0,4300.0,6500.0,5300.0,6100.0,8700.0,7200.0,5900.0,5400.0,9500.0,7000.0,7400.0,14800.0,8200.0,10100.0,7400.0,8300.0,6700.0,7600.0,6600.0,9300.0,8200.0,10700.0,8800.0,11600.0,9800.0,11200.0,13400.0,21400.0,20300.0,18500.0,16700.0,14600.0,17500.0,15900.0,23200.0,53800.0,40600.0,68900.0,46200.0,101400.0,63800.0,52700.0,44900.0,60100.0,82300.0,67200.0,54300.0,78100.0,122900.0,90600.0,63800.0,48900.0,37600.0,59200.0,88100.0,70200.0,53100.0,40700.0,47500.0,59400.0,51200.0,56900.0,43200.0,32800.0,25700.0,35200.0,28500.0,23900.0,33500.0,28100.0,37800.0,31200.0,42500.0,49100.0,33700.0,25200.0,21700.0,26500.0,31900.0,43300.0,28700.0,25800.0,36800.0,64700.0,45600.0,49800.0,25900.0,17600.0,14200.0,16300.0,14600.0,16900.0,22400.0,19800.0,21100.0,24500.0,21300.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2600.0,2400.0,2700.0,2500.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3700.0,13500.0,8500.0,7200.0,6200.0,6000.0,6400.0,5900.0,6100.0,6800.0,7000.0,6500.0,6300.0,12500.0,9000.0,8000.0,7600.0,7800.0,8500.0,7500.0,7400.0,7800.0,8100.0,7600.0,8000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8100.0,9000.0,8800.0,8200.0,8500.0,9000.0,9200.0,8700.0,9200.0,9500.0,9000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,10500.0,12000.0,13000.0,16000.0,52000.0,75000.0,55000.0,85000.0,45000.0,37000.0,33000.0,40000.0,39000.0,35000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,31000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,27000.0,29000.0,33000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,34000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,65000.0,80000.0,55000.0,50000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,45000.0,36000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2800.0,2000.0,2600.0,2800.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,4000.0,3500.0,4000.0,4500.0,3000.0,2500.0,3500.0,2500.0,2000.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,3000.0,2200.0,2000.0,2500.0,2800.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,1900.0,2100.0,2500.0,2500.0,3500.0,9000.0,15000.0,9000.0,7000.0,5000.0,5500.0,5500.0,4500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3500.0,4000.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,5500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3500.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,4500.0,3500.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,3500.0,3000.0]}},{"title":"Geddy Lee","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Geddy Lee\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[32830,34089,33071,32021,29658,47652,36939,28810,35920,29485,29869,31704,33949,34127,36305,43216,42629,32713,69261,34922,30367,51189,42782,46910,45352,35104,37928,38068,32467,30437,46788,36347,34720,29388,30117,43764,47933,43213,35605,33753,35121,32311,46563,37830,30594,31786,31055,30817,214661,43253,35118,43611,39215,36879,46610,42936,42180,41981,37655,39656,50095,45473,44657,44232,43522,46281,63829,47901,46765,35659,31244,38381,43887,34608,37873,41108,34713,33529,46716,48816,47868,38897,29757,35127,40196,36931,40000,46080,39570,38524,58809,49512,40720,42899,104358,109924,67672,46212,46972,42465,40274,37919,49768,48990,39784,37267,34793,34280,47528,37910,47171,38437,35013,38234,43482,39829,34026,118802,46840,29640],"flat_reference_value":16886.75828051421,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[58000.0,49000.0,51000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,53000.0,49000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,48000.0,52000.0,47000.0,49000.0,50000.0,49000.0,48000.0,55000.0,49000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,49000.0,78000.0,55000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,48000.0,56000.0,51000.0,48000.0,51000.0,53000.0,85000.0,66000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,55000.0,59000.0,65000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,51000.0,53000.0,750000.0,130000.0,85000.0,75000.0,70000.0,66000.0,73000.0,65000.0,62000.0,62000.0,59000.0,61000.0,82000.0,58000.0,59000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,67000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,56000.0,59000.0,72000.0,56000.0,62000.0,60000.0,59000.0,58000.0,66000.0,60000.0,125000.0,69000.0,59000.0,61000.0,72000.0,57000.0,59000.0,58000.0,59000.0,58000.0,69000.0,61000.0,60000.0,70000.0,180000.0,145000.0,100000.0,75000.0,67000.0,63000.0,62000.0,60000.0,71000.0,62000.0,59000.0,60000.0,58000.0,61000.0,75000.0,59000.0,62000.0,60000.0,63000.0,61000.0,74000.0,63000.0,60000.0,63000.0,61000.0,64000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[94200.0,82500.0,85100.0,81400.0,83900.0,80200.0,91800.0,84600.0,79300.0,81700.0,106400.0,88500.0,86300.0,77400.0,82900.0,80100.0,81600.0,78800.0,92400.0,81200.0,76900.0,78500.0,79800.0,84100.0,108500.0,81300.0,83700.0,79200.0,80900.0,77600.0,90500.0,82400.0,78100.0,83200.0,87600.0,112300.0,96400.0,82800.0,86500.0,83100.0,89700.0,84200.0,98600.0,95400.0,81500.0,79900.0,81200.0,86700.0,524000.0,146800.0,102500.0,98300.0,96100.0,89400.0,101200.0,92700.0,86500.0,85900.0,84300.0,91600.0,104200.0,84700.0,88900.0,85300.0,84100.0,81600.0,94800.0,85200.0,79400.0,80800.0,78900.0,83500.0,87200.0,76800.0,81400.0,79600.0,78300.0,76500.0,89700.0,144600.0,186200.0,104800.0,84900.0,83100.0,86400.0,75900.0,80700.0,77800.0,79200.0,78500.0,111400.0,86300.0,84100.0,116800.0,342500.0,231800.0,126400.0,88700.0,82300.0,76100.0,74800.0,72400.0,86900.0,75300.0,70800.0,71500.0,72900.0,76400.0,78200.0,84600.0,93800.0,74500.0,72100.0,69800.0,83400.0,71900.0,68400.0,69700.0,70500.0,74200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[68000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,55000.0,53000.0,48000.0,47000.0,51000.0,53000.0,56000.0,49000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,52000.0,49000.0,46000.0,48000.0,50000.0,51000.0,58000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,53000.0,47000.0,46000.0,49000.0,55000.0,76000.0,71000.0,58000.0,55000.0,52000.0,56000.0,59000.0,64000.0,52000.0,49000.0,51000.0,54000.0,58000.0,448000.0,112000.0,69000.0,65000.0,61000.0,58000.0,63000.0,57000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,56000.0,72000.0,55000.0,53000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,56000.0,52000.0,49000.0,48000.0,51000.0,53000.0,61000.0,49000.0,51000.0,48000.0,47000.0,49000.0,54000.0,62000.0,215000.0,84000.0,58000.0,57000.0,63000.0,52000.0,54000.0,51000.0,53000.0,55000.0,62000.0,58000.0,66000.0,82000.0,275000.0,218000.0,115000.0,72000.0,62000.0,57000.0,55000.0,54000.0,61000.0,56000.0,53000.0,55000.0,58000.0,60000.0,64000.0,53000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,53000.0,56000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[72000.0,66000.0,68000.0,65000.0,64000.0,62000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,72000.0,68000.0,64000.0,58000.0,60000.0,58000.0,57000.0,55000.0,59000.0,57000.0,55000.0,56000.0,56000.0,55000.0,58000.0,53000.0,55000.0,53000.0,52000.0,50000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,56000.0,62000.0,56000.0,51000.0,53000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,49000.0,50000.0,210000.0,85000.0,68000.0,66000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,57000.0,54000.0,54000.0,53000.0,54000.0,58000.0,51000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,47000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,48000.0,44000.0,50000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,72000.0,52000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,52000.0,115000.0,72000.0,60000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,45000.0,44000.0,48000.0,240000.0,105000.0,82000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[78000.0,70000.0,70000.0,68000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0,68000.0,64000.0,64000.0,68000.0,70000.0,72000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,58000.0,58000.0,58000.0,62000.0,68000.0,58000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,56000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,57000.0,60000.0,70000.0,66000.0,58000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,62000.0,58000.0,58000.0,58000.0,62000.0,390000.0,95000.0,82000.0,90000.0,88000.0,78000.0,78000.0,74000.0,70000.0,70000.0,68000.0,72000.0,80000.0,70000.0,70000.0,66000.0,66000.0,64000.0,68000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,72000.0,64000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,76000.0,90000.0,68000.0,64000.0,66000.0,70000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,64000.0,64000.0,72000.0,150000.0,125000.0,95000.0,76000.0,74000.0,70000.0,70000.0,68000.0,72000.0,70000.0,66000.0,66000.0,66000.0,70000.0,76000.0,66000.0,68000.0,66000.0,66000.0,66000.0,70000.0,68000.0,68000.0,260000.0,110000.0,90000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[88000.0,76000.0,71000.0,67000.0,65000.0,66000.0,63000.0,64000.0,69000.0,74000.0,96000.0,82000.0,74000.0,70000.0,67000.0,65000.0,63000.0,61000.0,59000.0,61000.0,67000.0,64000.0,66000.0,71000.0,67000.0,65000.0,63000.0,64000.0,62000.0,61000.0,59000.0,72000.0,64000.0,63000.0,74000.0,76000.0,69000.0,66000.0,63000.0,62000.0,61000.0,61000.0,61000.0,69000.0,74000.0,72000.0,86000.0,132000.0,850000.0,235000.0,145000.0,92000.0,74000.0,86000.0,66000.0,62000.0,60000.0,59000.0,60000.0,69000.0,84000.0,59000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,55000.0,57000.0,55000.0,56000.0,58000.0,66000.0,63000.0,61000.0,64000.0,62000.0,78000.0,60000.0,58000.0,59000.0,70000.0,116000.0,66000.0,61000.0,66000.0,62000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,56000.0,59000.0,57000.0,59000.0,62000.0,81000.0,265000.0,152000.0,96000.0,67000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,60000.0,58000.0,62000.0,66000.0,64000.0,77000.0,81000.0,94000.0,82000.0,122000.0,112000.0,335000.0,152000.0,112000.0,101000.0,96000.0,91000.0,94000.0,101000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[53000.0,45600.0,50400.0,48000.0,48000.0,43200.0,40800.0,42200.0,48000.0,50400.0,50400.0,45600.0,51500.0,44500.0,49100.0,46800.0,46800.0,42100.0,39800.0,41200.0,46800.0,49100.0,49100.0,44500.0,50200.0,43300.0,47900.0,45600.0,45600.0,41000.0,38800.0,40100.0,45600.0,47900.0,47900.0,43300.0,48800.0,42200.0,46600.0,44400.0,44400.0,40000.0,37700.0,39100.0,44400.0,46600.0,46600.0,42200.0,342000.0,120000.0,70000.0,43200.0,43200.0,38900.0,36700.0,38000.0,43200.0,45400.0,45400.0,41000.0,46200.0,39900.0,44100.0,42000.0,42000.0,37800.0,35700.0,37000.0,42000.0,44100.0,44100.0,39900.0,44900.0,38800.0,42800.0,40800.0,40800.0,36700.0,34700.0,35900.0,88000.0,42800.0,42800.0,38800.0,43600.0,37600.0,41600.0,39600.0,39600.0,35600.0,33700.0,34800.0,39600.0,55000.0,95000.0,68000.0,42200.0,36500.0,40300.0,38400.0,38400.0,34600.0,32600.0,33800.0,38400.0,40300.0,40300.0,36500.0,40900.0,35300.0,39100.0,37200.0,37200.0,33500.0,31600.0,32700.0,37200.0,39100.0,39100.0,35300.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[30500.0,29000.0,28000.0,26800.0,25800.0,24200.0,25200.0,25600.0,27800.0,29200.0,33500.0,31800.0,33800.0,31800.0,30800.0,29200.0,28200.0,26800.0,28000.0,28000.0,30500.0,32000.0,33200.0,34200.0,35800.0,33800.0,32800.0,31000.0,30000.0,28800.0,30000.0,29800.0,32000.0,33800.0,35200.0,39500.0,41500.0,38000.0,36000.0,34500.0,33200.0,31800.0,33500.0,33200.0,35500.0,37500.0,39000.0,40500.0,520000.0,118000.0,64000.0,54000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48500.0,46500.0,48000.0,49500.0,51000.0,53000.0,52000.0,46000.0,43500.0,41500.0,40000.0,38500.0,41000.0,39500.0,41500.0,43500.0,45500.0,47500.0,46500.0,43500.0,41500.0,39500.0,38000.0,36500.0,39000.0,37500.0,39500.0,41500.0,43000.0,45000.0,43500.0,41000.0,39500.0,37500.0,36000.0,34500.0,38000.0,36500.0,38500.0,41000.0,135000.0,88000.0,56000.0,45000.0,41500.0,39500.0,38000.0,36500.0,39500.0,38000.0,40000.0,42500.0,44500.0,46500.0,42000.0,39500.0,38000.0,36500.0,35500.0,34000.0,37500.0,36000.0,38500.0,42000.0,46000.0,43000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,450000.0,70000.0,55000.0,50000.0,48000.0,45000.0,52000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,47000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,50000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,43000.0,48000.0,45000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,51000.0,47000.0,95000.0,55000.0,48000.0,45000.0,50000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,53000.0,49000.0,48000.0,55000.0,260000.0,130000.0,90000.0,75000.0,65000.0,58000.0,55000.0,52000.0,60000.0,54000.0,52000.0,55000.0,53000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,54000.0,50000.0,49000.0,51000.0,50000.0,48000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[20500.0,19800.0,21500.0,28500.0,22000.0,22500.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,22500.0,21000.0,20000.0,21500.0,21000.0,22000.0,22500.0,23000.0,23500.0,27000.0,24500.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21500.0,23000.0,22200.0,23500.0,28000.0,24000.0,24500.0,28000.0,25500.0,24000.0,23500.0,22800.0,22000.0,24000.0,23200.0,24800.0,25500.0,26000.0,26500.0,30500.0,27500.0,26000.0,25500.0,24500.0,23800.0,98000.0,52000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30500.0,35000.0,32000.0,30500.0,31500.0,30000.0,28500.0,29500.0,28500.0,29000.0,29500.0,30000.0,31000.0,35500.0,32500.0,41000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,35000.0,30000.0,30500.0,31000.0,31500.0,32000.0,36500.0,33500.0,42000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31500.0,30500.0,31000.0,32000.0,38000.0,33000.0,37500.0,34000.0,33000.0,32500.0,41000.0,48500.0,36000.0,32000.0,31500.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,35000.0,45000.0,68000.0,48000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,49000.0,41000.0,35000.0,40000.0,36000.0,38000.0,115000.0,72000.0,45000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[8150.0,7900.0,8000.0,7700.0,7550.0,7250.0,6850.0,6800.0,7750.0,7900.0,8000.0,7100.0,7600.0,7400.0,7450.0,7150.0,7050.0,6750.0,6400.0,6300.0,7250.0,7400.0,7450.0,6600.0,7900.0,7700.0,7750.0,7450.0,7350.0,7050.0,6650.0,6600.0,7550.0,7700.0,7750.0,6900.0,8350.0,8100.0,8200.0,7900.0,7700.0,7400.0,7000.0,6950.0,7950.0,8100.0,8200.0,7250.0,92000.0,31000.0,20500.0,13000.0,11500.0,8350.0,7900.0,7850.0,9000.0,9150.0,9250.0,8200.0,12200.0,12650.0,11450.0,10050.0,9400.0,9050.0,8550.0,10550.0,16000.0,26700.0,18450.0,11050.0,12350.0,11200.0,11300.0,9900.0,9700.0,9300.0,8800.0,10050.0,13000.0,12450.0,11100.0,9100.0,12200.0,10500.0,10600.0,10200.0,10000.0,9600.0,9100.0,9000.0,10300.0,11550.0,10600.0,9400.0,12700.0,10900.0,12700.0,13550.0,11950.0,10000.0,9450.0,9350.0,10700.0,10900.0,11050.0,9750.0,15400.0,11350.0,11450.0,11000.0,10800.0,10350.0,9800.0,9700.0,11100.0,11350.0,11450.0,10150.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[62000.0,43000.0,47000.0,69000.0,165000.0,104000.0,155000.0,87000.0,58000.0,81000.0,59000.0,51000.0,62000.0,93000.0,66000.0,45000.0,53000.0,112000.0,64000.0,47000.0,94000.0,171000.0,122000.0,52000.0,103000.0,57000.0,67000.0,218000.0,166000.0,98000.0,212000.0,295000.0,132000.0,82000.0,64000.0,57000.0,136000.0,70000.0,64000.0,75000.0,89000.0,84000.0,143000.0,103000.0,324000.0,291000.0,207000.0,102000.0,75000.0,58000.0,103000.0,127000.0,82000.0,69000.0,59000.0,55000.0,64000.0,68000.0,70000.0,128000.0,64000.0,51000.0,57000.0,52000.0,86000.0,72000.0,58000.0,55000.0,75000.0,83000.0,66000.0,72000.0,59000.0,50000.0,55000.0,51000.0,63000.0,58000.0,55000.0,60000.0,82000.0,72000.0,64000.0,70000.0,81000.0,894000.0,436000.0,218000.0,136000.0,102000.0,82000.0,76000.0,83000.0,91000.0,86000.0,104000.0,94000.0,82000.0,88000.0,78000.0,86000.0,82000.0,88000.0,92000.0,119000.0,306000.0,173000.0,99000.0,91000.0,105000.0,84000.0,79000.0,87000.0,91000.0,86000.0,112000.0,128000.0,96000.0,89000.0,100000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3800.0,3500.0,3500.0,3900.0,3600.0,4200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,4300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,7500.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,4200.0,6500.0,4500.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,9500.0,6500.0,5200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[20400.0,17200.0,16000.0,16900.0,18100.0,16600.0,17000.0,17700.0,19200.0,18900.0,18400.0,22000.0,19900.0,16600.0,15500.0,16500.0,17600.0,16100.0,16500.0,17200.0,18800.0,18200.0,17900.0,21100.0,21200.0,17500.0,16600.0,17400.0,18600.0,17200.0,17600.0,18500.0,22400.0,20300.0,18800.0,22600.0,20800.0,17300.0,16200.0,17100.0,18200.0,16700.0,17000.0,17800.0,19600.0,18900.0,18400.0,22100.0,186000.0,61000.0,27500.0,21200.0,20400.0,18900.0,19200.0,20100.0,22900.0,21700.0,20600.0,29200.0,26200.0,21400.0,18800.0,20200.0,21000.0,19100.0,19500.0,20300.0,22600.0,21600.0,20900.0,25300.0,25000.0,20900.0,19200.0,20500.0,21700.0,19900.0,20300.0,21100.0,24400.0,31500.0,26400.0,28200.0,27900.0,23200.0,21600.0,22800.0,24200.0,22100.0,22600.0,23700.0,27100.0,60500.0,36500.0,35200.0,30500.0,25800.0,42700.0,46900.0,34500.0,27100.0,25500.0,24500.0,26900.0,28200.0,26300.0,30800.0,27000.0,22400.0,20800.0,21800.0,22900.0,21000.0,21400.0,22300.0,24900.0,24200.0,23100.0,26800.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[10500.0,9200.0,8700.0,8500.0,8800.0,8200.0,7900.0,8200.0,9000.0,9600.0,8900.0,8500.0,9300.0,8300.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7700.0,8100.0,8500.0,7900.0,7600.0,8000.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7600.0,8200.0,10600.0,12500.0,11000.0,9200.0,9000.0,8200.0,8000.0,7900.0,8100.0,7700.0,7500.0,7800.0,8200.0,8400.0,8700.0,11000.0,112000.0,28000.0,15000.0,12100.0,11500.0,10900.0,10500.0,11000.0,10800.0,11200.0,11600.0,12200.0,11000.0,9300.0,9200.0,9000.0,8900.0,8600.0,8500.0,8700.0,9100.0,9300.0,8800.0,9000.0,10500.0,9200.0,9000.0,9000.0,9100.0,8800.0,8900.0,10000.0,24000.0,14000.0,10500.0,9800.0,10500.0,9500.0,9200.0,9300.0,9400.0,9200.0,9700.0,11200.0,18000.0,24000.0,42000.0,26000.0,15000.0,12400.0,11500.0,10800.0,11000.0,10500.0,10700.0,11200.0,12000.0,13000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11200.0,11500.0,13000.0,85000.0,42000.0,28000.0,30000.0,25000.0,22000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2900.0,4200.0,4000.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3400.0,5800.0,4200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,11500.0,6000.0,4300.0,3800.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0]}},{"title":"Christopher Eccleston","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Christopher Eccleston\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[92987,69054,73369,90921,62780,50612,64693,57481,53750,52304,58056,63585,71947,65321,56352,89418,77782,67209,111785,59574,52627,49229,84129,89298,63701,58754,98182,89901,50660,41555,55745,50616,54619,75835,53744,53447,60060,41136,42936,47091,51466,49663,51932,52628,83028,59740,46645,50189,61189,60258,66189,87628,117094,78778,58677,71599,57419,64309,59404,64467,85116,68467,66252,73563,64212,51268,58208,65229,55534,58785,89863,63455,63849,55693,49449,49172,72678,67631,57958,54725,85160,89030,70609,67006,71661,53454,53695,65961,53964,60514,65674,57894,64427,70013,102343,163141,230990,195155,84310,60755,78534,66337,61162,57678,56120,56054,54169,93127,71384,55713,55270,62889,68042,143443,70114,53552,57504,53942,54616,53218],"flat_reference_value":16846.04676183663,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[48000.0,45000.0,67000.0,63000.0,49000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,46000.0,51000.0,47000.0,42000.0,45000.0,55000.0,61000.0,57000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,61000.0,57000.0,45000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,39000.0,52000.0,46000.0,48000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,57000.0,48000.0,41000.0,44000.0,45000.0,39000.0,49000.0,51000.0,66000.0,58000.0,42000.0,44000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,44000.0,42000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,50000.0,42000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,42000.0,40000.0,46000.0,46000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,42000.0,40000.0,44000.0,42000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,62000.0,58000.0,105000.0,112000.0,59000.0,44000.0,49000.0,48000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,48000.0,46000.0,41000.0,52000.0,48000.0,46000.0,105000.0,82000.0,51000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,47000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[115000.0,102000.0,132000.0,128000.0,114000.0,98000.0,104000.0,99000.0,95000.0,98000.0,101000.0,108000.0,112000.0,96000.0,105000.0,152000.0,168000.0,158000.0,118000.0,104000.0,98000.0,101000.0,126000.0,122000.0,115000.0,102000.0,138000.0,112000.0,125000.0,98000.0,96000.0,94000.0,97000.0,118000.0,106000.0,104000.0,108000.0,92000.0,98000.0,96000.0,95000.0,90000.0,94000.0,99000.0,186000.0,132000.0,105000.0,108000.0,114000.0,98000.0,112000.0,124000.0,142000.0,126000.0,112000.0,162000.0,115000.0,108000.0,106000.0,112000.0,118000.0,102000.0,104000.0,98000.0,116000.0,95000.0,96000.0,94000.0,92000.0,95000.0,134000.0,118000.0,112000.0,122000.0,108000.0,98000.0,96000.0,105000.0,94000.0,92000.0,89000.0,96000.0,94000.0,98000.0,104000.0,92000.0,96000.0,91000.0,94000.0,89000.0,95000.0,92000.0,96000.0,175000.0,210000.0,165000.0,385000.0,420000.0,175000.0,115000.0,122000.0,112000.0,135000.0,108000.0,96000.0,94000.0,92000.0,98000.0,102000.0,88000.0,128000.0,98000.0,104000.0,92000.0,89000.0,87000.0,85000.0,88000.0,86000.0,92000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[55000.0,52000.0,68000.0,71000.0,58000.0,51000.0,48000.0,49000.0,46000.0,48000.0,51000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,54000.0,65000.0,74000.0,68000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,51000.0,63000.0,57000.0,53000.0,50000.0,62000.0,57000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,49000.0,58000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,48000.0,125000.0,182000.0,84000.0,65000.0,61000.0,54000.0,58000.0,67000.0,78000.0,58000.0,53000.0,164000.0,86000.0,62000.0,56000.0,58000.0,55000.0,51000.0,53000.0,56000.0,82000.0,63000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,57000.0,59000.0,54000.0,52000.0,57000.0,53000.0,49000.0,58000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,71000.0,54000.0,49000.0,48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,51000.0,57000.0,96000.0,114000.0,142000.0,133000.0,72000.0,55000.0,51000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,50000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,46000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,48000.0,40000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,85000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,35000.0,37000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,33000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[230000.0,200000.0,270000.0,300000.0,230000.0,200000.0,195000.0,190000.0,190000.0,195000.0,190000.0,200000.0,215000.0,190000.0,195000.0,270000.0,320000.0,330000.0,240000.0,210000.0,190000.0,200000.0,260000.0,250000.0,210000.0,180000.0,230000.0,230000.0,180000.0,165000.0,160000.0,160000.0,160000.0,170000.0,165000.0,175000.0,175000.0,150000.0,155000.0,150000.0,150000.0,145000.0,145000.0,150000.0,260000.0,180000.0,160000.0,165000.0,185000.0,160000.0,180000.0,220000.0,260000.0,210000.0,170000.0,175000.0,155000.0,150000.0,155000.0,165000.0,180000.0,160000.0,155000.0,150000.0,145000.0,135000.0,135000.0,140000.0,135000.0,140000.0,170000.0,155000.0,150000.0,135000.0,135000.0,130000.0,140000.0,125000.0,125000.0,125000.0,120000.0,130000.0,135000.0,135000.0,135000.0,120000.0,125000.0,120000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,115000.0,115000.0,125000.0,180000.0,190000.0,520000.0,430000.0,180000.0,140000.0,145000.0,130000.0,120000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,110000.0,125000.0,120000.0,105000.0,105000.0,115000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,110000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[54200.0,55800.0,71500.0,67600.0,57300.0,55100.0,52400.0,52900.0,54800.0,56200.0,61400.0,104600.0,62100.0,53400.0,52100.0,62500.0,66200.0,60300.0,50800.0,49900.0,51200.0,52400.0,63600.0,70500.0,58400.0,52300.0,68200.0,58100.0,53400.0,52100.0,50200.0,48900.0,50300.0,54200.0,53400.0,56200.0,53100.0,50400.0,49200.0,48300.0,48100.0,47200.0,46100.0,47300.0,156400.0,78200.0,52300.0,55100.0,72400.0,58300.0,60100.0,58400.0,57200.0,54100.0,52800.0,161500.0,86300.0,58200.0,56300.0,58400.0,57100.0,51200.0,50200.0,54300.0,68400.0,56100.0,52200.0,51100.0,52300.0,56200.0,88400.0,62300.0,55200.0,50300.0,49200.0,50400.0,62300.0,54200.0,49100.0,48300.0,50200.0,62400.0,52100.0,55300.0,53200.0,50100.0,49200.0,50300.0,52100.0,51200.0,50100.0,52200.0,54300.0,58400.0,101300.0,68200.0,55200.0,92400.0,72300.0,52100.0,58300.0,53200.0,49200.0,51200.0,50100.0,52300.0,53200.0,56300.0,54200.0,52300.0,50100.0,54300.0,86200.0,70300.0,50200.0,136400.0,78200.0,50300.0,52200.0,57100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[28400.0,26100.0,43200.0,38500.0,33500.0,27200.0,24800.0,23600.0,25100.0,26900.0,24300.0,22800.0,24500.0,22100.0,23400.0,21800.0,21600.0,20900.0,19800.0,20500.0,21200.0,22800.0,31200.0,27500.0,22300.0,20900.0,21500.0,22800.0,28400.0,22400.0,19800.0,18700.0,19600.0,21200.0,20500.0,19900.0,20800.0,19400.0,20100.0,21300.0,22600.0,20200.0,19800.0,20500.0,24800.0,62300.0,32400.0,24100.0,23200.0,22400.0,29800.0,31200.0,34800.0,27500.0,26400.0,89200.0,43800.0,31200.0,26800.0,25200.0,26400.0,24200.0,25800.0,27300.0,41200.0,26800.0,23900.0,22400.0,23100.0,24500.0,25800.0,24700.0,22800.0,20900.0,21500.0,20200.0,19800.0,18400.0,17900.0,18600.0,19300.0,22500.0,20800.0,19200.0,20500.0,18900.0,19800.0,18700.0,19200.0,18800.0,19600.0,20100.0,21400.0,24800.0,58700.0,28400.0,23200.0,21400.0,20500.0,19800.0,21200.0,19600.0,18300.0,17800.0,18600.0,19400.0,20300.0,18900.0,19800.0,18200.0,18900.0,20300.0,21500.0,20100.0,18800.0,17500.0,18200.0,19100.0,20500.0,18700.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,46000.0,43000.0,36000.0,37000.0,52000.0,56000.0,50000.0,43000.0,46000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,50000.0,38000.0,34000.0,38000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,62000.0,42000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,32000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,46000.0,36000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,36000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,30000.0,29000.0,33000.0,36000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,45000.0,48000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,38000.0,36000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,36000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,34000.0,45000.0,36000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,31000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[30000.0,28000.0,34000.0,52000.0,43000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,32000.0,37000.0,34000.0,33000.0,29000.0,31000.0,36000.0,43000.0,46000.0,31000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,39000.0,41000.0,31000.0,28000.0,42000.0,36000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,29000.0,34000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,29000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,31000.0,33000.0,52000.0,41000.0,36000.0,100000.0,60000.0,46000.0,52000.0,41000.0,39000.0,36000.0,41000.0,52000.0,82000.0,62000.0,56000.0,46000.0,41000.0,43000.0,51000.0,46000.0,36000.0,33000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,34000.0,31000.0,31000.0,33000.0,35000.0,41000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,35000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,36000.0,41000.0,105000.0,72000.0,46000.0,39000.0,36000.0,37000.0,46000.0,41000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,43000.0,39000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0,39000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,38000.0,35000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[17000.0,16500.0,21000.0,22000.0,18500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,17800.0,18500.0,17500.0,15000.0,18500.0,17500.0,20000.0,26000.0,28000.0,21000.0,16500.0,15500.0,16500.0,16000.0,18000.0,15500.0,14500.0,13500.0,19500.0,17500.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,13500.0,15000.0,14500.0,12500.0,12500.0,11500.0,13000.0,13500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,10000.0,26000.0,44000.0,18000.0,17000.0,15500.0,14500.0,13500.0,13000.0,14000.0,14500.0,13500.0,11500.0,13000.0,15500.0,14500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,12000.0,13500.0,12500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10500.0,18000.0,24000.0,15000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,11000.0,14000.0,13500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,13000.0,14000.0,12500.0,11500.0,10500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,8500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[9200.0,9800.0,8600.0,8400.0,8100.0,7600.0,7200.0,7400.0,8200.0,8500.0,8800.0,14200.0,9000.0,8600.0,8300.0,11500.0,13000.0,12200.0,11800.0,8600.0,8400.0,8800.0,9200.0,19500.0,8200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6700.0,7300.0,12500.0,14000.0,23000.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6100.0,5900.0,5700.0,5800.0,6200.0,6400.0,6600.0,7200.0,7400.0,8600.0,38000.0,46000.0,30000.0,12000.0,7200.0,6800.0,7000.0,7400.0,7800.0,9500.0,9800.0,8600.0,8200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7300.0,32000.0,16000.0,12000.0,24000.0,42000.0,38000.0,22000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,26000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,24000.0,78000.0,34000.0,26000.0,24000.0,16000.0,12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,22000.0,12000.0,11000.0,16000.0,115000.0,68000.0,26000.0,17000.0,13000.0,11500.0,24000.0,30000.0,15000.0,12000.0,22000.0,12500.0,12000.0,17500.0,18000.0,15000.0,42000.0,55000.0,38000.0,18000.0,14000.0,13000.0,26000.0,14500.0,14000.0,20000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6800.0,6300.0,6500.0,6200.0,7000.0,6700.0,6300.0,6100.0,6400.0,6600.0,6800.0,7300.0,6900.0,6400.0,6200.0,6300.0,7100.0,8000.0,6700.0,6300.0,6500.0,6700.0,7000.0,7400.0,6200.0,8300.0,6600.0,6400.0,7400.0,6800.0,6500.0,7400.0,6500.0,6700.0,6900.0,7200.0,6600.0,6300.0,6500.0,6800.0,7500.0,6900.0,6700.0,7100.0,11500.0,8500.0,7100.0,9000.0,11000.0,8300.0,7300.0,7000.0,7800.0,15500.0,10500.0,8700.0,8300.0,10800.0,8100.0,8600.0,7700.0,7400.0,7600.0,11500.0,8200.0,8300.0,7900.0,8200.0,8400.0,8700.0,8500.0,9000.0,8100.0,7800.0,7700.0,8100.0,8900.0,8300.0,8100.0,8500.0,9200.0,78000.0,32000.0,19000.0,12500.0,9800.0,10500.0,9500.0,9200.0,8300.0,8100.0,8400.0,8700.0,10500.0,11200.0,9500.0,8400.0,13500.0,8700.0,9000.0,9700.0,8700.0,8300.0,8500.0,11000.0,9500.0,11500.0,10500.0,13500.0,12500.0,16000.0,28000.0,58000.0,39000.0,27000.0,21000.0,18000.0,20000.0,17500.0,18500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,41000.0,37000.0,38000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,41000.0,42000.0,38000.0,42000.0,44000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,43000.0,43000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,40000.0,43000.0,42000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,42000.0,47000.0,62000.0,52000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[31800.0,27200.0,29700.0,27900.0,29200.0,28600.0,31100.0,30300.0,27800.0,30900.0,33200.0,42700.0,34200.0,28400.0,31100.0,47500.0,30200.0,41300.0,69200.0,31000.0,29600.0,32800.0,33900.0,76800.0,29600.0,25100.0,27900.0,26700.0,27400.0,27000.0,28900.0,28100.0,26200.0,30200.0,29400.0,34800.0,28800.0,24100.0,26600.0,25400.0,26200.0,25900.0,27600.0,26900.0,25100.0,29300.0,30700.0,39200.0,34600.0,28400.0,23900.0,22700.0,23500.0,23200.0,24600.0,23800.0,23000.0,25300.0,27200.0,37600.0,26800.0,22300.0,24500.0,23300.0,24100.0,23700.0,25400.0,24600.0,23100.0,25900.0,27600.0,34500.0,28900.0,24100.0,26400.0,25300.0,26000.0,25600.0,27700.0,26900.0,25700.0,29100.0,37200.0,46500.0,40200.0,31900.0,33700.0,32500.0,33800.0,33300.0,44100.0,37800.0,36200.0,49200.0,119500.0,107800.0,33900.0,29400.0,31200.0,37100.0,50200.0,36800.0,35400.0,33100.0,34700.0,43600.0,37200.0,47900.0,29100.0,24400.0,26000.0,28200.0,36800.0,27600.0,26100.0,25200.0,25500.0,27300.0,28900.0,38200.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[10800.0,9600.0,10200.0,11100.0,10700.0,11900.0,10500.0,9800.0,10300.0,11200.0,13700.0,12500.0,10800.0,9700.0,10500.0,11700.0,12300.0,13400.0,12100.0,10200.0,10500.0,11200.0,14800.0,13200.0,10100.0,9300.0,9800.0,10300.0,10500.0,10800.0,10000.0,9500.0,9900.0,10900.0,13500.0,12000.0,10400.0,9600.0,10200.0,11000.0,10600.0,11500.0,10800.0,10500.0,14300.0,28600.0,22400.0,16900.0,14200.0,12700.0,15100.0,18400.0,16700.0,15400.0,14800.0,13900.0,16100.0,17900.0,20700.0,18100.0,15800.0,14100.0,15600.0,19400.0,21600.0,27800.0,23100.0,18700.0,17100.0,16500.0,19400.0,17200.0,14600.0,13200.0,13900.0,14500.0,14900.0,15300.0,14400.0,13700.0,14100.0,15100.0,18400.0,16200.0,14500.0,13600.0,14300.0,15500.0,16400.0,17100.0,16000.0,15800.0,17200.0,22100.0,39700.0,32300.0,19600.0,16900.0,17600.0,16800.0,18300.0,17500.0,16200.0,15300.0,15800.0,17100.0,20400.0,18600.0,15800.0,14600.0,15100.0,15700.0,16400.0,15900.0,14900.0,14200.0,14600.0,15700.0,18100.0,16600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,4200.0,3900.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,3300.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2900.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2700.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2800.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1900.0,1700.0]}},{"title":"Web colors","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Web colors\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[42461,45002,48707,46969,46524,46986,47426,47032,48374,51643,51455,43987,49928,48520,52076,45723,44194,45216,40115,49923,60419,77864,76431,64024,69999,66480,75994,68244,64289,53894,56916,61182,83203,89630,73611,70145,79081,76311,73922,69713,61949,46325,46756,44950,51555,58882,50038,45008,50810,56425,55635,61221,61254,51231,48501,46100,52357,58431,57435,62945,63884,62420,66783,55386,49878,43827,57178,59764,66528,70504,65974,58561,54407,52471,55251,57992,43360,35535,33988,39168,47387,43903,41862,34481,37431,36701,41921,34476,36543,31109,30165,31359,39481,38405,35873,32243,38518,42068,44263,43113,40261,33613,33650,34650,39420,43611,39593,37187,39495,35822,35845,32731,31452,27301,26539,28279,33506,32335,30621,28277],"flat_reference_value":16873.28890150994,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[29500.0,30200.0,32500.0,31800.0,31000.0,28500.0,27800.0,28700.0,31500.0,33000.0,32000.0,28000.0,30500.0,30000.0,33500.0,32000.0,32500.0,29500.0,28500.0,30000.0,32000.0,34500.0,32500.0,28500.0,31500.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32500.0,29000.0,28500.0,29500.0,31000.0,33500.0,32000.0,28000.0,30500.0,28500.0,31500.0,31000.0,31500.0,28000.0,27500.0,28500.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,26500.0,29500.0,28000.0,31500.0,34000.0,35000.0,31500.0,30500.0,31000.0,33000.0,34500.0,32500.0,28500.0,31500.0,29500.0,33000.0,31500.0,31000.0,28500.0,27500.0,28500.0,31000.0,32500.0,30500.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,30500.0,29000.0,29500.0,26500.0,25500.0,27000.0,28500.0,30000.0,28500.0,25000.0,27500.0,25500.0,28500.0,27000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25500.0,27000.0,28500.0,27000.0,23500.0,25500.0,24500.0,26500.0,25500.0,26000.0,23000.0,22500.0,23500.0,24500.0,26500.0,24500.0,21500.0,23500.0,22000.0,24500.0,23500.0,23500.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,22500.0,24000.0,22500.0,19500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[94200.0,95800.0,104500.0,101200.0,97600.0,87400.0,84900.0,86800.0,99100.0,105300.0,100400.0,85600.0,91300.0,90400.0,100800.0,96500.0,93900.0,84100.0,81700.0,83500.0,94800.0,100900.0,96200.0,81900.0,86700.0,85900.0,95400.0,92100.0,88700.0,79300.0,77600.0,79100.0,89600.0,95200.0,90800.0,77400.0,82100.0,81300.0,90200.0,87400.0,84500.0,75200.0,74100.0,75600.0,85900.0,91400.0,86700.0,74300.0,79500.0,79800.0,86400.0,91200.0,89700.0,80400.0,78200.0,79600.0,88500.0,93800.0,89100.0,76900.0,81400.0,79900.0,88300.0,85100.0,81900.0,73200.0,71400.0,72800.0,81700.0,86500.0,82400.0,70600.0,74800.0,73900.0,81600.0,78200.0,75700.0,67800.0,65900.0,67400.0,75900.0,80300.0,76100.0,64800.0,68400.0,67100.0,73800.0,69900.0,67200.0,59800.0,58100.0,59400.0,66700.0,70200.0,66500.0,56400.0,59700.0,59200.0,63900.0,61400.0,58800.0,52300.0,51100.0,52100.0,58400.0,61800.0,58200.0,49600.0,52400.0,51300.0,56200.0,54100.0,51900.0,46400.0,45200.0,46100.0,51800.0,54700.0,51600.0,44100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[185000.0,196000.0,212000.0,204000.0,191000.0,164000.0,154000.0,161000.0,186000.0,198000.0,192000.0,153000.0,174000.0,178000.0,193000.0,181000.0,172000.0,149000.0,139000.0,146000.0,169000.0,176000.0,171000.0,137000.0,157000.0,161000.0,173000.0,163000.0,154000.0,134000.0,125000.0,131000.0,151000.0,158000.0,152000.0,121000.0,139000.0,142000.0,153000.0,144000.0,136000.0,118000.0,110000.0,116000.0,133000.0,139000.0,134000.0,107000.0,125000.0,128000.0,123000.0,132000.0,125000.0,109000.0,102000.0,106000.0,121000.0,127000.0,122000.0,97000.0,113000.0,115000.0,123000.0,117000.0,109000.0,94000.0,87000.0,92000.0,105000.0,111000.0,106000.0,84000.0,98000.0,101000.0,107000.0,102000.0,95000.0,82000.0,76000.0,80000.0,92000.0,97000.0,92000.0,72000.0,81000.0,83000.0,87000.0,82000.0,77000.0,66000.0,61000.0,65000.0,74000.0,78000.0,75000.0,58000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0,68000.0,64000.0,55000.0,51000.0,54000.0,62000.0,65000.0,62000.0,48000.0,54000.0,56000.0,59000.0,55000.0,52000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,49000.0,51000.0,49000.0,38000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[150000.0,147000.0,157000.0,153000.0,150000.0,138000.0,135000.0,139000.0,150000.0,157000.0,157000.0,132000.0,140000.0,137000.0,147000.0,143000.0,140000.0,129000.0,126000.0,130000.0,140000.0,147000.0,147000.0,123000.0,125000.0,122000.0,131000.0,127000.0,125000.0,115000.0,112000.0,116000.0,125000.0,131000.0,131000.0,110000.0,110000.0,108000.0,115000.0,112000.0,110000.0,101000.0,99000.0,102000.0,110000.0,115000.0,115000.0,97000.0,100000.0,98000.0,108000.0,110000.0,105000.0,93000.0,90000.0,93000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,88000.0,90000.0,88000.0,94000.0,92000.0,90000.0,83000.0,81000.0,84000.0,90000.0,94000.0,94000.0,79000.0,80000.0,78000.0,84000.0,82000.0,80000.0,74000.0,72000.0,74000.0,80000.0,84000.0,84000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,75000.0,73000.0,72000.0,66000.0,65000.0,67000.0,72000.0,75000.0,75000.0,63000.0,65000.0,64000.0,68000.0,66000.0,65000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,65000.0,68000.0,68000.0,57000.0,58000.0,57000.0,61000.0,59000.0,58000.0,53000.0,52000.0,54000.0,58000.0,61000.0,61000.0,51000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[168000.0,165000.0,170000.0,162000.0,160000.0,148000.0,142000.0,145000.0,155000.0,160000.0,158000.0,140000.0,158000.0,152000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,138000.0,132000.0,134000.0,142000.0,148000.0,146000.0,128000.0,142000.0,136000.0,142000.0,134000.0,132000.0,120000.0,116000.0,117000.0,122000.0,128000.0,125000.0,110000.0,122000.0,115000.0,120000.0,114000.0,113000.0,103000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,110000.0,107000.0,95000.0,105000.0,100000.0,104000.0,110000.0,108000.0,98000.0,94000.0,92000.0,95000.0,97000.0,95000.0,86000.0,94000.0,88000.0,92000.0,86000.0,84000.0,78000.0,75000.0,75000.0,78000.0,80000.0,79000.0,71000.0,77000.0,73000.0,77000.0,71000.0,70000.0,65000.0,63000.0,63000.0,65000.0,67000.0,66000.0,60000.0,66000.0,62000.0,65000.0,61000.0,61000.0,56000.0,55000.0,55000.0,57000.0,59000.0,58000.0,52000.0,58000.0,55000.0,57000.0,54000.0,54000.0,50000.0,49000.0,49000.0,51000.0,53000.0,52000.0,47000.0,52000.0,49000.0,52000.0,49000.0,49000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,47000.0,43000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[95.0,96.0,98.0,91.0,86.0,80.0,74.0,77.0,93.0,98.0,92.0,74.0,89.0,91.0,92.0,86.0,81.0,76.0,71.0,72.0,87.0,92.0,87.0,70.0,85.0,86.0,88.0,82.0,78.0,72.0,67.0,69.0,83.0,87.0,82.0,66.0,83.0,84.0,86.0,80.0,76.0,70.0,65.0,67.0,81.0,85.0,80.0,64.0,83.0,84.0,90.0,92.0,84.0,73.0,66.0,68.0,81.0,84.0,79.0,64.0,81.0,82.0,84.0,78.0,74.0,68.0,64.0,65.0,79.0,83.0,78.0,63.0,78.0,79.0,80.0,74.0,71.0,66.0,61.0,63.0,76.0,80.0,75.0,60.0,79.0,80.0,81.0,75.0,72.0,67.0,62.0,64.0,77.0,103.0,100.0,82.0,108.0,110.0,112.0,104.0,99.0,92.0,86.0,88.0,106.0,111.0,105.0,85.0,106.0,108.0,110.0,102.0,97.0,90.0,84.0,86.0,104.0,109.0,103.0,84.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[119524.0,98184.0,121733.0,106855.0,111596.0,99144.0,92959.0,99186.0,112266.0,126447.0,111132.0,102676.0,109520.0,92243.0,113799.0,107161.0,103237.0,92700.0,92274.0,91785.0,109232.0,115909.0,111395.0,96943.0,107393.0,88635.0,107181.0,99960.0,102276.0,87318.0,86073.0,91784.0,100842.0,113625.0,101871.0,94101.0,99896.0,82463.0,105864.0,92963.0,98980.0,84537.0,80865.0,84565.0,99603.0,102542.0,98627.0,86647.0,97390.0,81618.0,126443.0,123600.0,103524.0,83160.0,75744.0,80818.0,92400.0,101030.0,91476.0,81989.0,90055.0,72125.0,93554.0,85507.0,84048.0,76194.0,73628.0,74717.0,89765.0,92459.0,87150.0,80486.0,85476.0,69163.0,86178.0,78764.0,82209.0,68796.0,68507.0,72344.0,81081.0,88663.0,83538.0,73413.0,77621.0,66024.0,81468.0,75949.0,74676.0,66357.0,62834.0,66379.0,77417.0,84639.0,74351.0,69401.0,75256.0,61820.0,74370.0,69360.0,70967.0,61200.0,60918.0,60595.0,71400.0,78069.0,72114.0,64002.0,68355.0,56421.0,71714.0,62975.0,65097.0,56133.0,55886.0,57286.0,64827.0,73760.0,65489.0,61092.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[147200.0,141800.0,149300.0,142600.0,136900.0,125400.0,117100.0,122700.0,154800.0,157300.0,148100.0,118900.0,153400.0,148200.0,157900.0,149600.0,143800.0,131500.0,122400.0,128900.0,163200.0,165800.0,155100.0,124700.0,165100.0,158700.0,168300.0,159800.0,153200.0,140100.0,130500.0,137200.0,173600.0,177200.0,165400.0,132800.0,174600.0,168900.0,178400.0,169700.0,162300.0,148600.0,138200.0,144900.0,181500.0,185700.0,173200.0,139800.0,178400.0,174900.0,192300.0,198600.0,190200.0,176500.0,168300.0,172400.0,201700.0,207800.0,193400.0,158200.0,186300.0,179600.0,188700.0,181400.0,174900.0,159800.0,149200.0,155600.0,187300.0,191500.0,178200.0,143700.0,174200.0,168400.0,177300.0,169900.0,163100.0,148700.0,139400.0,145200.0,175600.0,179300.0,166800.0,134100.0,158700.0,152300.0,164900.0,155200.0,147800.0,133600.0,124100.0,129700.0,157400.0,160800.0,148300.0,118900.0,143200.0,138600.0,147900.0,140100.0,133700.0,121400.0,112800.0,117900.0,143600.0,146700.0,135200.0,108400.0,128900.0,124300.0,132700.0,125800.0,119600.0,108200.0,100400.0,105300.0,127600.0,130100.0,119800.0,95700.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[63600.0,62400.0,61800.0,60600.0,59400.0,56400.0,55200.0,57000.0,63000.0,64200.0,61800.0,56400.0,60950.0,59800.0,59225.0,58075.0,56925.0,54050.0,52900.0,54625.0,60375.0,61525.0,59225.0,54050.0,58300.0,57200.0,56650.0,55550.0,54450.0,51700.0,50600.0,52250.0,57750.0,58850.0,56650.0,51700.0,56180.0,55120.0,54590.0,53530.0,52470.0,49820.0,48760.0,50350.0,55650.0,56710.0,54590.0,49820.0,57240.0,56160.0,55620.0,54540.0,53460.0,50760.0,49680.0,51300.0,56700.0,57780.0,55620.0,50760.0,54060.0,53040.0,52530.0,51510.0,50490.0,47940.0,46920.0,48450.0,53550.0,54570.0,52530.0,47940.0,51940.0,50960.0,50470.0,49490.0,48510.0,46060.0,45080.0,46550.0,51450.0,52430.0,50470.0,46060.0,49290.0,48360.0,47900.0,46965.0,46035.0,43710.0,42780.0,44175.0,48825.0,49755.0,47895.0,43710.0,47170.0,46280.0,45835.0,44945.0,44055.0,41830.0,40940.0,42275.0,46725.0,47615.0,45835.0,41830.0,45050.0,44200.0,43775.0,42925.0,42075.0,39950.0,39100.0,40375.0,44625.0,45475.0,43775.0,39950.0],"meta/muse-ember":[27000.0,25700.0,27300.0,25800.0,25200.0,22800.0,22000.0,23400.0,27300.0,28600.0,26500.0,24200.0,27800.0,26500.0,26500.0,27300.0,25500.0,24200.0,22200.0,23400.0,28600.0,28300.0,27800.0,25200.0,27100.0,27600.0,27400.0,26000.0,26600.0,24000.0,23600.0,23200.0,28700.0,28400.0,28700.0,24500.0,28100.0,26700.0,28100.0,27300.0,25700.0,25100.0,23100.0,24100.0,28300.0,29700.0,27800.0,25400.0,29600.0,29400.0,32000.0,32000.0,29900.0,27300.0,25800.0,26900.0,32000.0,32000.0,31100.0,27900.0,30100.0,28900.0,29500.0,28400.0,27200.0,25800.0,24000.0,25500.0,30300.0,30300.0,30100.0,26400.0,26600.0,26900.0,26100.0,26400.0,24600.0,23300.0,22800.0,23500.0,27400.0,27600.0,27400.0,24100.0,24400.0,23200.0,23900.0,23200.0,23200.0,20900.0,22700.0,21900.0,25100.0,25000.0,24900.0,21400.0,21400.0,21600.0,21400.0,21600.0,20200.0,19300.0,17900.0,18900.0,22900.0,22400.0,22300.0,19600.0,20400.0,19600.0,20400.0,19200.0,19000.0,17500.0,16600.0,17600.0,20900.0,20900.0,20800.0,17900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[48800.0,45500.0,48300.0,46000.0,45100.0,43700.0,42800.0,44200.0,49200.0,50100.0,48800.0,39600.0,51900.0,48500.0,51500.0,49000.0,48000.0,46600.0,45600.0,47000.0,52400.0,53400.0,51900.0,42100.0,57200.0,53500.0,56700.0,54000.0,52900.0,51300.0,50200.0,51800.0,57800.0,58900.0,57200.0,46400.0,63600.0,59400.0,63000.0,60000.0,58800.0,57000.0,55800.0,57600.0,64200.0,65400.0,63600.0,51600.0,65700.0,61400.0,71100.0,67000.0,63300.0,59900.0,57700.0,59500.0,66300.0,67600.0,65700.0,53300.0,70000.0,65300.0,69300.0,66000.0,64700.0,62700.0,61400.0,63400.0,70600.0,71900.0,70000.0,56800.0,67800.0,63400.0,67200.0,64000.0,62700.0,60800.0,59500.0,61400.0,68500.0,69800.0,67800.0,55000.0,68900.0,64400.0,68300.0,65000.0,63700.0,61800.0,60500.0,62400.0,69600.0,70900.0,68900.0,55900.0,61500.0,57400.0,60900.0,58000.0,56800.0,55100.0,53900.0,55700.0,62100.0,63200.0,61500.0,49900.0,57200.0,53500.0,56700.0,54000.0,52900.0,51300.0,50200.0,51800.0,57800.0,58900.0,57200.0,46400.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[17600.0,16900.0,18400.0,20800.0,18300.0,17200.0,16100.0,17000.0,19500.0,21300.0,19800.0,18900.0,19300.0,18800.0,20400.0,21000.0,20100.0,19000.0,18200.0,19400.0,22000.0,23100.0,21700.0,20600.0,20900.0,19700.0,21500.0,22300.0,21800.0,20600.0,19400.0,20800.0,23600.0,24800.0,23400.0,22100.0,22400.0,21200.0,23300.0,23800.0,23200.0,22000.0,20700.0,22300.0,24900.0,26200.0,24800.0,23500.0,24100.0,23000.0,27800.0,26700.0,26300.0,25000.0,23800.0,25600.0,28900.0,29800.0,28200.0,27000.0,27500.0,25700.0,27900.0,28500.0,27800.0,26400.0,24900.0,26800.0,30200.0,31500.0,29700.0,29000.0,27900.0,25900.0,28300.0,29100.0,28200.0,26800.0,25100.0,27000.0,30400.0,31200.0,29600.0,28200.0,29300.0,27500.0,31300.0,31900.0,30100.0,28700.0,27000.0,28900.0,32400.0,33700.0,31900.0,32500.0,33600.0,30300.0,32100.0,32900.0,31700.0,30200.0,28400.0,30500.0,34100.0,35600.0,33900.0,32800.0,33900.0,31400.0,33200.0,34300.0,33200.0,31700.0,29900.0,32000.0,35700.0,36900.0,35100.0,37500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[9000.0,9450.0,9450.0,9450.0,9000.0,8100.0,7650.0,8100.0,9450.0,9900.0,9900.0,8100.0,8800.0,9240.0,9240.0,9240.0,8800.0,7920.0,7480.0,7920.0,9240.0,9680.0,9680.0,7920.0,8500.0,8930.0,8930.0,8930.0,8500.0,7650.0,7230.0,7650.0,8930.0,9350.0,9350.0,7650.0,8200.0,8610.0,8610.0,8610.0,8200.0,7380.0,6970.0,7380.0,8610.0,9020.0,9020.0,7380.0,8000.0,8400.0,8600.0,8800.0,8200.0,7400.0,6800.0,7400.0,8400.0,8800.0,8800.0,7200.0,7500.0,7875.0,7875.0,7875.0,7500.0,6750.0,6375.0,6750.0,7875.0,8250.0,8250.0,6750.0,7000.0,7350.0,7350.0,7350.0,7000.0,6300.0,5950.0,6300.0,7350.0,7700.0,7700.0,6300.0,6500.0,6825.0,6825.0,6825.0,6500.0,5850.0,5525.0,5850.0,6825.0,7150.0,7150.0,5850.0,6000.0,6300.0,6300.0,6300.0,6000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5400.0,6300.0,6600.0,6600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5880.0,5880.0,5880.0,5600.0,5040.0,4760.0,5040.0,5880.0,6160.0,6160.0,5040.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[160500.0,148700.0,156800.0,155400.0,148300.0,139400.0,132600.0,138200.0,172100.0,167500.0,158900.0,152600.0,187300.0,170200.0,183900.0,180600.0,171400.0,160300.0,152100.0,161800.0,198200.0,192700.0,182400.0,174600.0,214200.0,194500.0,208300.0,206100.0,195400.0,182800.0,174900.0,181600.0,224700.0,217400.0,207900.0,198100.0,241800.0,217500.0,233200.0,231700.0,218300.0,203600.0,193200.0,204500.0,250700.0,242900.0,231300.0,219100.0,267400.0,247600.0,299100.0,281300.0,253800.0,225700.0,216200.0,223100.0,284300.0,274600.0,252800.0,256500.0,293800.0,286100.0,308500.0,282700.0,265200.0,249400.0,236300.0,245100.0,302600.0,292400.0,290200.0,263800.0,322400.0,289700.0,311200.0,305100.0,288900.0,269400.0,255700.0,266300.0,328200.0,317500.0,300600.0,286400.0,347200.0,313500.0,335800.0,330600.0,337300.0,290400.0,344100.0,289500.0,371400.0,342700.0,323200.0,308100.0,400300.0,341900.0,362400.0,355200.0,338800.0,312600.0,298400.0,308700.0,399200.0,369500.0,347600.0,330400.0,402600.0,361700.0,405300.0,380200.0,361100.0,334600.0,318900.0,330400.0,422800.0,392500.0,370800.0,352600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[19800.0,18100.0,19700.0,19000.0,19500.0,18800.0,18400.0,18600.0,19200.0,19400.0,18600.0,17900.0,19700.0,17900.0,19400.0,18800.0,19200.0,18500.0,18100.0,18300.0,18900.0,19100.0,18300.0,17700.0,19200.0,17600.0,19000.0,18400.0,18800.0,18100.0,17700.0,17900.0,18500.0,18700.0,18000.0,17300.0,18900.0,17200.0,18600.0,18000.0,18400.0,17700.0,17300.0,17500.0,18100.0,18300.0,17600.0,16900.0,18600.0,17400.0,19000.0,19800.0,20100.0,19400.0,18900.0,19100.0,19600.0,19800.0,19100.0,18400.0,19000.0,17400.0,18800.0,18100.0,18400.0,17700.0,17300.0,17500.0,18000.0,18200.0,17500.0,16800.0,18300.0,16800.0,18000.0,17400.0,17700.0,17000.0,16600.0,16800.0,17300.0,17500.0,16800.0,16200.0,17700.0,16200.0,17500.0,16900.0,17300.0,16600.0,16200.0,16400.0,16900.0,17100.0,16400.0,15800.0,17200.0,15700.0,16900.0,16300.0,16700.0,16000.0,15600.0,15800.0,16300.0,16500.0,15800.0,15200.0,16500.0,15100.0,16300.0,15700.0,16000.0,15400.0,15000.0,15200.0,15700.0,15900.0,15200.0,14600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[19800.0,20700.0,19800.0,18000.0,17100.0,15300.0,14400.0,16200.0,19800.0,20700.0,18900.0,15300.0,18700.0,19550.0,18700.0,17000.0,16150.0,14450.0,13600.0,15300.0,18700.0,19550.0,17850.0,14450.0,17600.0,18400.0,17600.0,16000.0,15200.0,13600.0,12800.0,14400.0,17600.0,18400.0,16800.0,13600.0,16500.0,17250.0,16500.0,15000.0,14250.0,12750.0,12000.0,13500.0,16500.0,17250.0,15750.0,12750.0,17050.0,17825.0,17050.0,15500.0,14725.0,13175.0,12400.0,13950.0,17050.0,17825.0,16275.0,13175.0,14850.0,15525.0,14850.0,13500.0,12825.0,11475.0,10800.0,12150.0,14850.0,15525.0,14175.0,11475.0,13200.0,13800.0,13200.0,12000.0,11400.0,10200.0,9600.0,10800.0,13200.0,13800.0,12600.0,10200.0,11550.0,12075.0,11550.0,10500.0,9975.0,8925.0,8400.0,9450.0,11550.0,12075.0,11025.0,8925.0,10450.0,10925.0,10450.0,9500.0,9025.0,8075.0,7600.0,8550.0,10450.0,10925.0,9975.0,8075.0,8800.0,9200.0,8800.0,8000.0,7600.0,6800.0,6400.0,7200.0,8800.0,9200.0,8400.0,6800.0]}},{"title":"Diego Maradona","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Diego Maradona\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[106392,103714,114980,114013,109713,319105,163146,99346,81999,124501,105950,97714,114528,111458,104823,110901,126323,136832,123888,110812,101761,194719,115922,153569,111841,100642,156557,156306,170547,1407707,540712,107428,124218,127657,134680,118363,115003,101699,129193,117319,133352,225780,156203,121836,180025,429465,258241,169015,141242,154505,371707,321229,220800,220419,149553,160249,129636,199345,6168360,924564,225946,155995,183764,146490,249620,273247,400443,209135,167008,240918,423639,280035,183372,144754,156578,182031,204977,215121,160730,185341,209366,281411,768862,2862769,375036,176007,227891,204434,265612,228833,191931,203844,179605,224048,197802,195363,190439,174791,159481,148873,155749,211564,281914,129724,141047,164652,166737,138263,138217,147125,195696,159382,190463,175878,158394,126458,132238,151151,163651,158342],"flat_reference_value":16757.60325479425,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[105000.0,96000.0,98000.0,92000.0,102000.0,130000.0,115000.0,95000.0,93000.0,110000.0,102000.0,100000.0,108000.0,97000.0,101000.0,98000.0,106000.0,110000.0,112000.0,101000.0,105000.0,122000.0,110000.0,112000.0,115000.0,105000.0,114000.0,112000.0,125000.0,650000.0,330000.0,145000.0,150000.0,135000.0,125000.0,120000.0,125000.0,112000.0,115000.0,115000.0,125000.0,210000.0,165000.0,135000.0,210000.0,190000.0,145000.0,130000.0,135000.0,125000.0,125000.0,120000.0,125000.0,130000.0,125000.0,120000.0,130000.0,190000.0,5500000.0,1200000.0,350000.0,250000.0,210000.0,185000.0,175000.0,180000.0,220000.0,175000.0,160000.0,180000.0,240000.0,165000.0,160000.0,145000.0,150000.0,145000.0,150000.0,160000.0,155000.0,145000.0,150000.0,180000.0,300000.0,950000.0,320000.0,190000.0,170000.0,155000.0,155000.0,155000.0,160000.0,145000.0,150000.0,175000.0,180000.0,160000.0,160000.0,145000.0,150000.0,145000.0,145000.0,175000.0,210000.0,145000.0,140000.0,165000.0,180000.0,150000.0,155000.0,140000.0,145000.0,140000.0,145000.0,150000.0,155000.0,140000.0,140000.0,170000.0,190000.0,150000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[295000.0,275000.0,290000.0,285000.0,300000.0,480000.0,360000.0,290000.0,280000.0,325000.0,295000.0,290000.0,310000.0,280000.0,305000.0,295000.0,315000.0,320000.0,335000.0,310000.0,290000.0,340000.0,315000.0,350000.0,315000.0,285000.0,320000.0,310000.0,390000.0,2150000.0,920000.0,360000.0,410000.0,355000.0,330000.0,320000.0,325000.0,290000.0,310000.0,315000.0,370000.0,560000.0,460000.0,365000.0,395000.0,530000.0,380000.0,345000.0,350000.0,335000.0,360000.0,395000.0,385000.0,370000.0,355000.0,375000.0,345000.0,420000.0,10500000.0,1850000.0,740000.0,490000.0,440000.0,405000.0,415000.0,520000.0,730000.0,460000.0,380000.0,410000.0,530000.0,390000.0,375000.0,340000.0,365000.0,390000.0,590000.0,470000.0,360000.0,355000.0,370000.0,440000.0,1680000.0,4750000.0,940000.0,435000.0,420000.0,475000.0,790000.0,410000.0,375000.0,355000.0,330000.0,415000.0,365000.0,340000.0,325000.0,295000.0,310000.0,295000.0,305000.0,430000.0,590000.0,320000.0,285000.0,315000.0,310000.0,280000.0,275000.0,250000.0,385000.0,290000.0,430000.0,310000.0,295000.0,265000.0,255000.0,295000.0,355000.0,380000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[134000.0,121000.0,128000.0,131000.0,142000.0,195000.0,178000.0,135000.0,126000.0,138000.0,129000.0,122000.0,141000.0,118000.0,125000.0,122000.0,130000.0,136000.0,129000.0,134000.0,127000.0,145000.0,131000.0,138000.0,142000.0,135000.0,148000.0,156000.0,182000.0,540000.0,415000.0,168000.0,210000.0,185000.0,162000.0,149000.0,155000.0,141000.0,152000.0,158000.0,172000.0,285000.0,260000.0,174000.0,225000.0,192000.0,168000.0,154000.0,162000.0,148000.0,139000.0,151000.0,165000.0,158000.0,161000.0,147000.0,155000.0,182000.0,9250000.0,1620000.0,420000.0,285000.0,262000.0,245000.0,270000.0,310000.0,415000.0,248000.0,215000.0,265000.0,340000.0,230000.0,210000.0,182000.0,195000.0,188000.0,192000.0,235000.0,198000.0,185000.0,178000.0,212000.0,345000.0,1150000.0,290000.0,205000.0,185000.0,174000.0,188000.0,172000.0,168000.0,161000.0,154000.0,178000.0,210000.0,165000.0,162000.0,149000.0,155000.0,151000.0,168000.0,220000.0,245000.0,164000.0,148000.0,165000.0,182000.0,152000.0,150000.0,138000.0,144000.0,142000.0,149000.0,158000.0,152000.0,146000.0,140000.0,155000.0,172000.0,145000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[185000.0,170000.0,180000.0,175000.0,170000.0,210000.0,190000.0,170000.0,165000.0,175000.0,170000.0,160000.0,165000.0,155000.0,165000.0,160000.0,155000.0,150000.0,150000.0,150000.0,150000.0,165000.0,150000.0,150000.0,155000.0,145000.0,155000.0,150000.0,165000.0,480000.0,300000.0,160000.0,175000.0,150000.0,140000.0,135000.0,140000.0,130000.0,135000.0,130000.0,135000.0,190000.0,155000.0,135000.0,145000.0,160000.0,140000.0,130000.0,130000.0,120000.0,120000.0,135000.0,125000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,110000.0,160000.0,4500000.0,750000.0,300000.0,220000.0,210000.0,190000.0,180000.0,185000.0,180000.0,165000.0,160000.0,260000.0,280000.0,170000.0,160000.0,145000.0,150000.0,145000.0,140000.0,145000.0,135000.0,130000.0,130000.0,150000.0,320000.0,600000.0,200000.0,150000.0,145000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,120000.0,120000.0,135000.0,150000.0,120000.0,120000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,130000.0,135000.0,110000.0,110000.0,120000.0,135000.0,110000.0,110000.0,105000.0,140000.0,130000.0,145000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,115000.0,130000.0,105000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[430000.0,410000.0,420000.0,410000.0,430000.0,600000.0,520000.0,430000.0,410000.0,450000.0,440000.0,420000.0,420000.0,390000.0,410000.0,400000.0,420000.0,410000.0,390000.0,400000.0,390000.0,420000.0,410000.0,400000.0,410000.0,380000.0,420000.0,430000.0,520000.0,1700000.0,1150000.0,450000.0,520000.0,440000.0,430000.0,450000.0,430000.0,390000.0,420000.0,410000.0,450000.0,620000.0,560000.0,470000.0,520000.0,600000.0,580000.0,520000.0,480000.0,430000.0,480000.0,600000.0,580000.0,500000.0,470000.0,450000.0,430000.0,560000.0,11500000.0,2400000.0,900000.0,680000.0,620000.0,580000.0,600000.0,750000.0,820000.0,560000.0,500000.0,560000.0,680000.0,560000.0,500000.0,450000.0,470000.0,460000.0,480000.0,460000.0,430000.0,430000.0,450000.0,500000.0,1400000.0,2600000.0,650000.0,450000.0,460000.0,430000.0,450000.0,420000.0,410000.0,400000.0,390000.0,420000.0,430000.0,400000.0,390000.0,370000.0,380000.0,370000.0,380000.0,420000.0,460000.0,370000.0,360000.0,380000.0,390000.0,370000.0,360000.0,340000.0,430000.0,400000.0,410000.0,370000.0,350000.0,340000.0,340000.0,360000.0,370000.0,350000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[190000.0,185000.0,195000.0,185000.0,200000.0,275000.0,240000.0,190000.0,185000.0,195000.0,200000.0,180000.0,185000.0,190000.0,195000.0,200000.0,210000.0,230000.0,210000.0,200000.0,210000.0,205000.0,200000.0,185000.0,195000.0,200000.0,210000.0,215000.0,250000.0,780000.0,480000.0,240000.0,260000.0,230000.0,235000.0,210000.0,400000.0,280000.0,250000.0,240000.0,235000.0,330000.0,360000.0,250000.0,300000.0,350000.0,280000.0,250000.0,265000.0,260000.0,270000.0,260000.0,270000.0,280000.0,275000.0,270000.0,280000.0,350000.0,5200000.0,1900000.0,900000.0,600000.0,480000.0,430000.0,410000.0,430000.0,450000.0,340000.0,330000.0,380000.0,620000.0,380000.0,320000.0,300000.0,290000.0,300000.0,300000.0,320000.0,290000.0,280000.0,280000.0,320000.0,950000.0,850000.0,480000.0,330000.0,300000.0,280000.0,280000.0,300000.0,290000.0,270000.0,270000.0,300000.0,380000.0,290000.0,280000.0,260000.0,270000.0,260000.0,270000.0,310000.0,320000.0,260000.0,250000.0,270000.0,340000.0,260000.0,250000.0,240000.0,300000.0,260000.0,250000.0,260000.0,250000.0,240000.0,240000.0,260000.0,360000.0,250000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[168421.0,152337.0,171204.0,158992.0,172455.0,218730.0,184115.0,162308.0,163941.0,159872.0,155430.0,147892.0,152104.0,138975.0,154820.0,143665.0,156212.0,179543.0,162874.0,148932.0,151466.0,149823.0,145119.0,138440.0,141230.0,132875.0,149302.0,154618.0,232410.0,684520.0,492310.0,187432.0,163285.0,171904.0,158377.0,144902.0,148735.0,139412.0,156890.0,152345.0,178230.0,462180.0,318450.0,208730.0,176542.0,169384.0,174921.0,158663.0,158210.0,152477.0,132845.0,118932.0,127410.0,149832.0,162418.0,168955.0,174230.0,198745.0,8742150.0,1124380.0,452310.0,342185.0,298740.0,276532.0,268914.0,312475.0,328190.0,254632.0,242817.0,258394.0,512860.0,287432.0,247185.0,228934.0,242517.0,231688.0,245320.0,258914.0,236475.0,229830.0,238412.0,261753.0,584290.0,862415.0,264310.0,231455.0,247890.0,238120.0,342750.0,272384.0,248916.0,235702.0,241388.0,249573.0,398412.0,254817.0,238492.0,221375.0,235810.0,228433.0,241592.0,287340.0,292815.0,236174.0,228936.0,235441.0,372580.0,238915.0,229384.0,208512.0,224730.0,215968.0,228145.0,241320.0,229874.0,216542.0,221308.0,224915.0,312480.0,238260.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[245000.0,235000.0,245000.0,250000.0,265000.0,385000.0,300000.0,255000.0,250000.0,260000.0,275000.0,275000.0,280000.0,385000.0,310000.0,285000.0,290000.0,375000.0,305000.0,285000.0,300000.0,315000.0,320000.0,345000.0,310000.0,295000.0,300000.0,310000.0,355000.0,720000.0,900000.0,385000.0,545000.0,450000.0,455000.0,415000.0,365000.0,350000.0,355000.0,425000.0,400000.0,525000.0,485000.0,365000.0,525000.0,455000.0,425000.0,415000.0,385000.0,365000.0,425000.0,345000.0,335000.0,365000.0,355000.0,350000.0,375000.0,720000.0,11200000.0,3100000.0,1250000.0,850000.0,720000.0,680000.0,675000.0,785000.0,825000.0,625000.0,625000.0,985000.0,1180000.0,625000.0,585000.0,565000.0,560000.0,555000.0,865000.0,685000.0,650000.0,585000.0,605000.0,725000.0,2050000.0,2450000.0,725000.0,570000.0,565000.0,545000.0,565000.0,625000.0,605000.0,565000.0,585000.0,645000.0,725000.0,625000.0,565000.0,565000.0,565000.0,565000.0,585000.0,855000.0,805000.0,585000.0,565000.0,625000.0,725000.0,605000.0,565000.0,545000.0,785000.0,565000.0,545000.0,625000.0,585000.0,545000.0,545000.0,625000.0,705000.0,585000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[165000.0,155000.0,160000.0,170000.0,180000.0,230000.0,220000.0,185000.0,165000.0,205000.0,175000.0,165000.0,160000.0,150000.0,155000.0,165000.0,175000.0,185000.0,200000.0,175000.0,160000.0,195000.0,170000.0,165000.0,180000.0,175000.0,185000.0,205000.0,260000.0,750000.0,850000.0,380000.0,260000.0,270000.0,230000.0,215000.0,210000.0,195000.0,205000.0,215000.0,225000.0,255000.0,310000.0,240000.0,220000.0,250000.0,230000.0,220000.0,235000.0,225000.0,270000.0,310000.0,360000.0,310000.0,290000.0,270000.0,260000.0,320000.0,12000000.0,2600000.0,1250000.0,650000.0,520000.0,470000.0,430000.0,410000.0,520000.0,390000.0,360000.0,470000.0,720000.0,420000.0,370000.0,340000.0,360000.0,350000.0,370000.0,410000.0,390000.0,410000.0,460000.0,520000.0,1600000.0,2200000.0,750000.0,520000.0,460000.0,410000.0,390000.0,360000.0,370000.0,350000.0,340000.0,410000.0,520000.0,370000.0,360000.0,330000.0,340000.0,350000.0,370000.0,410000.0,520000.0,360000.0,340000.0,410000.0,460000.0,360000.0,340000.0,310000.0,330000.0,340000.0,350000.0,370000.0,410000.0,360000.0,340000.0,390000.0,520000.0,360000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[820000.0,780000.0,810000.0,790000.0,840000.0,1100000.0,980000.0,800000.0,860000.0,830000.0,800000.0,770000.0,790000.0,750000.0,780000.0,760000.0,800000.0,840000.0,890000.0,810000.0,780000.0,820000.0,790000.0,760000.0,800000.0,770000.0,800000.0,820000.0,950000.0,1650000.0,1350000.0,850000.0,820000.0,870000.0,830000.0,800000.0,810000.0,780000.0,800000.0,810000.0,840000.0,920000.0,850000.0,820000.0,990000.0,890000.0,850000.0,820000.0,840000.0,810000.0,830000.0,790000.0,780000.0,800000.0,810000.0,830000.0,810000.0,960000.0,5200000.0,2700000.0,1150000.0,1050000.0,1020000.0,990000.0,1000000.0,1180000.0,1280000.0,1020000.0,980000.0,1060000.0,1580000.0,1150000.0,1020000.0,990000.0,1010000.0,980000.0,1040000.0,1140000.0,1000000.0,980000.0,1030000.0,1100000.0,2100000.0,2800000.0,1300000.0,1050000.0,1020000.0,1000000.0,1260000.0,1080000.0,1010000.0,990000.0,1010000.0,1090000.0,1320000.0,1080000.0,1010000.0,980000.0,1000000.0,980000.0,1020000.0,1160000.0,1270000.0,990000.0,1000000.0,1080000.0,1310000.0,1040000.0,1000000.0,970000.0,1180000.0,1120000.0,1240000.0,1060000.0,1050000.0,970000.0,980000.0,1060000.0,1280000.0,1020000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4200000.0,4080000.0,4280000.0,4340000.0,4400000.0,5600000.0,6300000.0,4720000.0,4480000.0,5050000.0,4520000.0,4380000.0,4680000.0,4620000.0,4780000.0,4840000.0,4900000.0,5000000.0,4940000.0,4880000.0,4960000.0,5520000.0,5080000.0,4980000.0,5320000.0,5240000.0,5400000.0,5460000.0,6400000.0,16000000.0,8600000.0,5720000.0,5600000.0,6320000.0,5680000.0,5560000.0,5820000.0,5740000.0,5900000.0,5960000.0,6020000.0,8600000.0,9600000.0,6220000.0,6100000.0,6820000.0,6180000.0,6080000.0,6320000.0,6180000.0,6820000.0,7040000.0,7220000.0,6640000.0,6520000.0,6600000.0,6720000.0,7680000.0,26000000.0,15000000.0,7240000.0,7020000.0,7120000.0,7220000.0,7320000.0,11800000.0,20000000.0,7640000.0,7520000.0,8260000.0,12600000.0,10600000.0,8560000.0,7620000.0,7720000.0,7820000.0,7920000.0,8020000.0,8120000.0,8020000.0,7920000.0,8680000.0,30000000.0,88000000.0,9560000.0,8220000.0,8120000.0,8020000.0,7960000.0,7900000.0,7860000.0,7820000.0,7760000.0,8440000.0,7720000.0,7640000.0,8320000.0,8220000.0,8260000.0,8320000.0,8360000.0,14000000.0,24000000.0,8640000.0,8520000.0,9140000.0,8420000.0,8220000.0,7820000.0,7760000.0,7720000.0,7660000.0,7620000.0,7720000.0,7680000.0,7620000.0,7580000.0,8120000.0,7520000.0,7440000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[104000.0,93000.0,107000.0,116000.0,126000.0,153000.0,198000.0,168000.0,132000.0,139000.0,153000.0,132000.0,137000.0,119000.0,132000.0,138000.0,151000.0,177000.0,191000.0,174000.0,158000.0,2380000.0,930000.0,485000.0,350000.0,255000.0,237000.0,231000.0,244000.0,274000.0,460000.0,275000.0,228000.0,254000.0,340000.0,281000.0,229000.0,202000.0,218000.0,210000.0,228000.0,286000.0,268000.0,228000.0,207000.0,225000.0,241000.0,230000.0,218000.0,199000.0,178000.0,147000.0,153000.0,177000.0,238000.0,204000.0,182000.0,286000.0,3550000.0,1780000.0,920000.0,485000.0,377000.0,312000.0,286000.0,311000.0,340000.0,279000.0,254000.0,296000.0,379000.0,323000.0,271000.0,245000.0,241000.0,239000.0,254000.0,287000.0,317000.0,286000.0,269000.0,279000.0,487000.0,1520000.0,690000.0,465000.0,402000.0,345000.0,321000.0,342000.0,370000.0,334000.0,309000.0,336000.0,372000.0,346000.0,316000.0,284000.0,303000.0,283000.0,295000.0,326000.0,392000.0,345000.0,314000.0,378000.0,356000.0,327000.0,314000.0,281000.0,298000.0,275000.0,288000.0,326000.0,368000.0,334000.0,307000.0,332000.0,347000.0,334000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[330000.0,320000.0,320000.0,300000.0,300000.0,380000.0,340000.0,290000.0,290000.0,300000.0,310000.0,300000.0,310000.0,290000.0,300000.0,290000.0,290000.0,300000.0,280000.0,270000.0,280000.0,300000.0,300000.0,290000.0,300000.0,290000.0,300000.0,290000.0,320000.0,560000.0,480000.0,330000.0,320000.0,330000.0,340000.0,320000.0,320000.0,300000.0,300000.0,290000.0,290000.0,310000.0,300000.0,280000.0,290000.0,330000.0,330000.0,310000.0,310000.0,290000.0,290000.0,300000.0,280000.0,270000.0,270000.0,270000.0,290000.0,420000.0,3500000.0,1000000.0,560000.0,450000.0,420000.0,380000.0,360000.0,370000.0,360000.0,330000.0,330000.0,340000.0,420000.0,360000.0,340000.0,330000.0,330000.0,320000.0,320000.0,310000.0,300000.0,290000.0,300000.0,340000.0,620000.0,900000.0,430000.0,350000.0,340000.0,320000.0,320000.0,310000.0,300000.0,290000.0,290000.0,300000.0,340000.0,320000.0,310000.0,300000.0,300000.0,290000.0,290000.0,340000.0,330000.0,280000.0,280000.0,290000.0,330000.0,300000.0,300000.0,290000.0,290000.0,280000.0,280000.0,280000.0,270000.0,260000.0,270000.0,290000.0,350000.0,300000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[14800.0,13600.0,15100.0,14700.0,16200.0,18100.0,20700.0,19800.0,17300.0,16400.0,17200.0,18900.0,18400.0,17100.0,18900.0,19300.0,20700.0,23100.0,26500.0,24400.0,21500.0,19800.0,20900.0,23300.0,23700.0,22100.0,24600.0,23900.0,27400.0,168000.0,225000.0,102000.0,54000.0,41000.0,38000.0,43000.0,39000.0,34200.0,37100.0,36600.0,128000.0,82000.0,54000.0,43000.0,39500.0,41200.0,45000.0,49500.0,132000.0,88000.0,52000.0,49000.0,54000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,52000.0,780000.0,2650000.0,146000.0,98000.0,72000.0,61000.0,57000.0,53000.0,51000.0,49000.0,52000.0,55000.0,159000.0,105000.0,82000.0,73000.0,86000.0,65000.0,62000.0,77000.0,64000.0,59000.0,58000.0,65000.0,415000.0,895000.0,118000.0,89000.0,74000.0,64000.0,60000.0,57000.0,54000.0,50000.0,48000.0,51000.0,126000.0,83000.0,88000.0,70000.0,62000.0,55000.0,57000.0,83000.0,218000.0,97000.0,66000.0,59000.0,138000.0,76000.0,71000.0,57000.0,51000.0,46000.0,47000.0,53000.0,48000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,150000.0,88000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[118000.0,112000.0,125000.0,119000.0,128000.0,171000.0,154000.0,132000.0,129000.0,138000.0,145000.0,141000.0,132000.0,121000.0,139000.0,130000.0,145000.0,153000.0,147000.0,135000.0,142000.0,149000.0,155000.0,160000.0,148000.0,137000.0,151000.0,142000.0,158000.0,410000.0,520000.0,185000.0,160000.0,169000.0,172000.0,180000.0,164000.0,151000.0,159000.0,154000.0,167000.0,175000.0,169000.0,157000.0,161000.0,173000.0,182000.0,176000.0,182000.0,169000.0,178000.0,185000.0,193000.0,204000.0,196000.0,188000.0,202000.0,218000.0,3800000.0,430000.0,230000.0,205000.0,194000.0,188000.0,201000.0,212000.0,198000.0,190000.0,203000.0,220000.0,275000.0,230000.0,205000.0,194000.0,211000.0,218000.0,224000.0,230000.0,221000.0,216000.0,229000.0,241000.0,520000.0,1050000.0,244000.0,219000.0,231000.0,226000.0,238000.0,268000.0,232000.0,218000.0,226000.0,240000.0,255000.0,246000.0,231000.0,218000.0,240000.0,233000.0,251000.0,286000.0,350000.0,245000.0,238000.0,250000.0,264000.0,257000.0,244000.0,231000.0,252000.0,246000.0,263000.0,275000.0,258000.0,249000.0,261000.0,280000.0,330000.0,285000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[155000.0,150000.0,148000.0,145000.0,142000.0,170000.0,150000.0,140000.0,138000.0,135000.0,140000.0,132000.0,135000.0,130000.0,128000.0,125000.0,124000.0,128000.0,126000.0,122000.0,121000.0,120000.0,124000.0,118000.0,124000.0,120000.0,118000.0,117000.0,119000.0,165000.0,175000.0,135000.0,128000.0,124000.0,122000.0,120000.0,125000.0,122000.0,120000.0,118000.0,117000.0,119000.0,205000.0,150000.0,135000.0,128000.0,126000.0,124000.0,128000.0,124000.0,130000.0,126000.0,122000.0,123000.0,120000.0,118000.0,124000.0,135000.0,3800000.0,900000.0,420000.0,260000.0,210000.0,190000.0,185000.0,180000.0,175000.0,170000.0,168000.0,172000.0,290000.0,200000.0,165000.0,150000.0,148000.0,146000.0,145000.0,148000.0,150000.0,146000.0,150000.0,160000.0,360000.0,720000.0,150000.0,140000.0,138000.0,135000.0,134000.0,136000.0,134000.0,132000.0,135000.0,138000.0,210000.0,165000.0,135000.0,128000.0,125000.0,122000.0,120000.0,122000.0,118000.0,115000.0,116000.0,118000.0,190000.0,130000.0,118000.0,110000.0,108000.0,105000.0,104000.0,106000.0,103000.0,100000.0,102000.0,105000.0,200000.0,125000.0]}},{"title":"Wishbone Ash","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Wishbone Ash\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[16220,14686,13675,13356,13440,12178,11517,12943,13767,14749,13946,13050,17242,17361,14138,12331,13536,11748,12163,13285,14819,14277,14226,12662,15742,16149,16931,17194,13373,13068,12411,13683,13383,14912,13935,12436,18550,15383,13914,15380,14161,14598,12004,14248,12891,16376,15475,13398,17167,21060,21117,19531,19941,14192,14316,14913,12768,13151,13624,15005,14829,16819,18434,16645,15829,13760,14051,14793,13954,17540,17049,13301,15188,15709,16513,15292,16720,12096,13163,14734,13061,18308,17465,15877,19433,19159,18754,19649,16971,17240,15621,18436,21507,16946,15558,17396,17985,15448,15552,16329,14010,13581,14415,17117,17009,19354,16528,13628,14570,14890,14969,13309,13216,12262,13793,19015,16185,17458,16140,14215],"flat_reference_value":16972.54534337971,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[9200.0,8500.0,9100.0,8800.0,8600.0,8200.0,8100.0,8400.0,8800.0,9400.0,9100.0,8900.0,9800.0,9000.0,9500.0,9100.0,9300.0,8700.0,8500.0,9000.0,9400.0,10100.0,9600.0,9200.0,10000.0,9000.0,9700.0,9300.0,9200.0,8700.0,8600.0,9000.0,9200.0,9900.0,9500.0,9300.0,9900.0,9000.0,9700.0,9400.0,9300.0,9000.0,8900.0,9300.0,9700.0,10300.0,9900.0,9700.0,10200.0,11100.0,11900.0,11800.0,11200.0,10300.0,9900.0,10100.0,10200.0,10800.0,10300.0,10100.0,10700.0,9600.0,10200.0,9900.0,9600.0,9100.0,9000.0,9400.0,9600.0,10100.0,9800.0,9600.0,10100.0,9200.0,9800.0,10500.0,10300.0,9200.0,9000.0,9300.0,9500.0,10100.0,9700.0,9500.0,10000.0,9000.0,9700.0,9200.0,9300.0,8800.0,8700.0,9000.0,9200.0,9800.0,9400.0,9200.0,9800.0,9000.0,9600.0,9100.0,9200.0,8700.0,8600.0,8900.0,9100.0,9700.0,9300.0,9100.0,9700.0,8700.0,9400.0,9000.0,9100.0,8600.0,8500.0,8800.0,9000.0,9500.0,9200.0,15000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[29400.0,26500.0,27800.0,27100.0,27600.0,25900.0,26800.0,27200.0,26900.0,29100.0,29600.0,27500.0,30200.0,33800.0,28400.0,27300.0,28600.0,26100.0,26700.0,26900.0,26500.0,28900.0,29300.0,27400.0,28800.0,25600.0,28200.0,31900.0,30400.0,26300.0,26800.0,27100.0,26700.0,28800.0,29200.0,27100.0,28500.0,25400.0,27600.0,26900.0,27200.0,25800.0,26500.0,27000.0,27800.0,31400.0,31800.0,28300.0,29500.0,34600.0,36200.0,31100.0,30400.0,28500.0,28900.0,28600.0,27500.0,28200.0,28400.0,27900.0,29600.0,26800.0,28100.0,27400.0,27000.0,25500.0,26100.0,26400.0,26200.0,28500.0,28900.0,26700.0,27800.0,24600.0,26200.0,29800.0,28300.0,24700.0,25100.0,25300.0,24900.0,27100.0,27500.0,25200.0,26400.0,23500.0,25100.0,28400.0,26300.0,23600.0,24100.0,24300.0,23900.0,26100.0,26500.0,24200.0,25300.0,22900.0,24100.0,23400.0,23700.0,22200.0,22800.0,23100.0,22700.0,24900.0,25200.0,23100.0,24200.0,21600.0,23100.0,22500.0,22800.0,21400.0,21900.0,22200.0,21800.0,23900.0,24300.0,22400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[22400.0,21100.0,21800.0,20700.0,19900.0,19200.0,19500.0,20100.0,19800.0,21300.0,22900.0,21600.0,22800.0,20400.0,21200.0,20100.0,19600.0,18900.0,19300.0,18800.0,19400.0,20800.0,21900.0,20500.0,22100.0,19800.0,20900.0,21500.0,19700.0,18300.0,18900.0,18400.0,19200.0,20600.0,21400.0,20100.0,21800.0,19300.0,20500.0,19800.0,19100.0,18200.0,18700.0,18500.0,19400.0,21100.0,22300.0,21500.0,22900.0,24800.0,26200.0,26700.0,24100.0,21300.0,20800.0,19900.0,20200.0,21500.0,22100.0,21000.0,21900.0,19700.0,20400.0,19500.0,18800.0,17900.0,18300.0,17800.0,18600.0,19800.0,20500.0,19700.0,20800.0,18600.0,19200.0,18900.0,17800.0,17100.0,17400.0,17000.0,17900.0,19100.0,19900.0,19200.0,20300.0,18400.0,19600.0,23400.0,20900.0,17700.0,17200.0,16900.0,17500.0,18800.0,19400.0,18600.0,19800.0,18100.0,18700.0,17900.0,17100.0,16400.0,16700.0,16200.0,17000.0,18200.0,18900.0,17800.0,18900.0,17200.0,17900.0,17100.0,16500.0,15800.0,16100.0,15700.0,16400.0,17400.0,18100.0,17200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[11800.0,11000.0,11300.0,10900.0,10800.0,10400.0,10600.0,10500.0,10300.0,10900.0,11100.0,11500.0,11400.0,10500.0,10800.0,10400.0,10300.0,9900.0,10100.0,10000.0,9800.0,10300.0,10400.0,10800.0,10900.0,10000.0,10300.0,9900.0,9800.0,9400.0,9600.0,9600.0,9300.0,9800.0,9900.0,10200.0,10300.0,9400.0,9700.0,9300.0,9200.0,8900.0,9100.0,9000.0,8800.0,9200.0,9300.0,9700.0,9800.0,9100.0,10000.0,11200.0,10800.0,9900.0,9700.0,9500.0,9100.0,9300.0,9400.0,9700.0,9800.0,8900.0,9100.0,8800.0,8700.0,8300.0,8500.0,8500.0,8200.0,8600.0,8700.0,9000.0,9100.0,8300.0,8500.0,8200.0,8100.0,7800.0,8000.0,7900.0,7700.0,8100.0,8200.0,8500.0,8600.0,7800.0,8000.0,7700.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7500.0,7200.0,7600.0,7700.0,8000.0,8100.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,7300.0,7600.0,7700.0,7000.0,7200.0,6900.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,6700.0,6500.0,6900.0,7000.0,7200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[35500.0,33000.0,33800.0,32000.0,31800.0,30500.0,31000.0,31200.0,31000.0,33000.0,32500.0,33000.0,34500.0,31000.0,32500.0,31000.0,30500.0,29000.0,29500.0,29800.0,29500.0,31000.0,30500.0,31000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31500.0,30000.0,29500.0,28000.0,28500.0,28500.0,28500.0,30500.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30500.0,29000.0,28500.0,27000.0,27500.0,27500.0,27500.0,29500.0,29000.0,29500.0,31500.0,32000.0,32000.0,33500.0,33000.0,30000.0,29500.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31500.0,28500.0,29500.0,28000.0,27500.0,26000.0,26500.0,26500.0,26000.0,27500.0,27500.0,28000.0,29500.0,26500.0,27500.0,26000.0,26000.0,24500.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26500.0,26000.0,26500.0,28000.0,25500.0,26500.0,25000.0,25000.0,23500.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,25500.0,25500.0,26000.0,27500.0,25500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23500.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,25500.0,25000.0,25500.0,27000.0,24500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23500.0,24000.0,24000.0,23500.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[11800.0,10200.0,9900.0,9700.0,9850.0,9200.0,8900.0,9050.0,9700.0,10100.0,9950.0,8900.0,9700.0,9500.0,9400.0,9300.0,9200.0,8700.0,8400.0,8500.0,9000.0,9300.0,9200.0,8200.0,8900.0,8800.0,8700.0,8600.0,8600.0,8100.0,7900.0,8000.0,8500.0,8700.0,8600.0,7800.0,8500.0,8400.0,8400.0,8300.0,8400.0,7900.0,7700.0,7900.0,8700.0,9200.0,9400.0,8500.0,9300.0,9600.0,11200.0,10400.0,9600.0,8900.0,8700.0,8800.0,9300.0,9400.0,9200.0,8400.0,9000.0,8800.0,8800.0,8700.0,8600.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,8500.0,8700.0,8600.0,7900.0,8500.0,8600.0,9000.0,9600.0,9400.0,8800.0,8400.0,8500.0,9000.0,9100.0,8900.0,8100.0,8400.0,8300.0,8300.0,8200.0,8200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7700.0,8100.0,8300.0,8200.0,7500.0,7900.0,7800.0,7800.0,7800.0,7700.0,7300.0,7100.0,7200.0,7600.0,7800.0,7700.0,7000.0,7400.0,7300.0,7300.0,7300.0,16500.0,9500.0,7800.0,7000.0,7200.0,7400.0,7300.0,6700.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[7400.0,6950.0,6900.0,6420.0,6250.0,5780.0,5600.0,5690.0,6230.0,6580.0,6770.0,5900.0,7100.0,8300.0,6700.0,6250.0,6050.0,5600.0,5400.0,5500.0,5940.0,6360.0,6550.0,5850.0,6800.0,6400.0,6350.0,5950.0,5750.0,5320.0,5180.0,5250.0,5720.0,6080.0,6240.0,5580.0,6450.0,6100.0,6020.0,5650.0,5480.0,5080.0,4900.0,4980.0,5450.0,5760.0,5920.0,5300.0,6200.0,5880.0,6580.0,6700.0,6030.0,5000.0,4720.0,4820.0,5280.0,5560.0,5720.0,5120.0,5880.0,5550.0,5520.0,5150.0,4990.0,4620.0,4480.0,4550.0,4980.0,5260.0,5400.0,4840.0,5550.0,5240.0,5200.0,5800.0,5360.0,4380.0,4220.0,4290.0,4700.0,4960.0,5090.0,4560.0,5220.0,4910.0,4880.0,4550.0,4420.0,4090.0,3970.0,4020.0,4410.0,5100.0,4780.0,4290.0,4880.0,4590.0,4570.0,4250.0,4130.0,3820.0,3710.0,3760.0,4120.0,4360.0,4460.0,4010.0,4650.0,4380.0,4360.0,4050.0,3940.0,3640.0,3540.0,3590.0,3930.0,4150.0,4260.0,3830.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5150.0,4980.0,5230.0,5090.0,4870.0,5120.0,5480.0,5160.0,4830.0,5060.0,4940.0,5420.0,5020.0,4610.0,4820.0,4740.0,4560.0,4780.0,5060.0,4810.0,4520.0,4690.0,4620.0,5100.0,4780.0,4420.0,4610.0,4520.0,4360.0,4560.0,4820.0,4590.0,4310.0,4470.0,4410.0,4870.0,4820.0,4610.0,4740.0,4880.0,5020.0,6850.0,5940.0,5210.0,4720.0,4620.0,4540.0,5010.0,4520.0,5380.0,5620.0,3480.0,3260.0,3380.0,3520.0,3420.0,3310.0,3400.0,3520.0,3820.0,3980.0,3820.0,3910.0,4020.0,3860.0,3960.0,4180.0,3920.0,3740.0,3850.0,3920.0,4260.0,3920.0,3840.0,3960.0,5180.0,4520.0,4020.0,4180.0,3980.0,3810.0,3920.0,3980.0,4320.0,3860.0,3680.0,3760.0,3880.0,3720.0,3820.0,4020.0,3810.0,3620.0,3980.0,3760.0,4090.0,3720.0,3520.0,3600.0,3710.0,3560.0,3820.0,3860.0,3620.0,3460.0,3550.0,3580.0,3900.0,3560.0,3380.0,3450.0,3560.0,3410.0,3510.0,3680.0,3520.0,3350.0,3430.0,3460.0,3760.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[10800.0,10500.0,10400.0,10200.0,10000.0,9700.0,9500.0,9600.0,10200.0,10400.0,10600.0,10900.0,10500.0,10200.0,10100.0,9900.0,9700.0,9400.0,9200.0,9300.0,9900.0,10100.0,10300.0,10600.0,10200.0,9900.0,9800.0,9600.0,9400.0,9100.0,8900.0,9000.0,9600.0,9800.0,10000.0,10300.0,9900.0,9600.0,9500.0,9300.0,9100.0,8800.0,8600.0,8700.0,9300.0,9500.0,9700.0,10000.0,9500.0,12000.0,14000.0,11000.0,9300.0,8550.0,8370.0,8460.0,9000.0,9180.0,9360.0,9630.0,8900.0,8700.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,7900.0,8400.0,8600.0,8700.0,9000.0,9100.0,8900.0,8800.0,10600.0,10400.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,8600.0,8800.0,8900.0,9200.0,9300.0,9100.0,9000.0,8800.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,8300.0,11800.0,11000.0,10200.0,9900.0,8700.0,8400.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,7700.0,8200.0,8400.0,8500.0,8800.0,8400.0,8100.0,8100.0,7900.0,7700.0,7500.0,7300.0,7400.0,7900.0,8100.0,8200.0,8500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[12480.0,13100.0,14250.0,14980.0,14890.0,16230.0,16100.0,16040.0,14610.0,14370.0,13220.0,12560.0,12400.0,19400.0,13820.0,14560.0,14430.0,15780.0,15640.0,15590.0,14180.0,13950.0,12840.0,12180.0,11620.0,12280.0,13310.0,14010.0,13920.0,15210.0,15080.0,15030.0,13670.0,13440.0,12380.0,11740.0,11360.0,12010.0,12990.0,13700.0,13610.0,17480.0,18650.0,16520.0,13780.0,13140.0,12100.0,11480.0,10820.0,11430.0,9850.0,10420.0,11740.0,14480.0,15560.0,14620.0,12760.0,12510.0,11540.0,10930.0,10380.0,10960.0,11880.0,12520.0,12430.0,13590.0,13460.0,13420.0,12210.0,12000.0,11060.0,10480.0,9940.0,10490.0,11380.0,19380.0,11920.0,12990.0,12890.0,12840.0,14180.0,11490.0,10590.0,10040.0,9490.0,10030.0,10870.0,11450.0,11370.0,12420.0,12310.0,12270.0,11170.0,10980.0,10120.0,9590.0,9050.0,9560.0,10370.0,10910.0,10840.0,11840.0,11740.0,11700.0,10650.0,10470.0,9640.0,9140.0,8600.0,9090.0,9850.0,10380.0,10310.0,11260.0,11160.0,11130.0,10130.0,9950.0,9170.0,8690.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4370.0,4240.0,4310.0,4260.0,4150.0,3990.0,3900.0,3870.0,4200.0,4230.0,4160.0,3660.0,4180.0,4090.0,4140.0,4050.0,3990.0,3870.0,3700.0,3760.0,4020.0,4060.0,4010.0,3480.0,3960.0,3950.0,4010.0,3890.0,3840.0,3720.0,3550.0,3600.0,3850.0,3890.0,3840.0,3380.0,4240.0,4130.0,4200.0,4160.0,4010.0,3920.0,3740.0,3810.0,4380.0,4400.0,4340.0,3830.0,3690.0,3610.0,4450.0,4530.0,4260.0,3930.0,4240.0,3950.0,3990.0,3760.0,3640.0,3110.0,3510.0,3500.0,3560.0,3440.0,3390.0,3280.0,3170.0,3160.0,3420.0,3470.0,3400.0,2980.0,3400.0,3820.0,4510.0,4680.0,4400.0,3680.0,3350.0,3030.0,3280.0,3300.0,3290.0,2870.0,3230.0,3200.0,3240.0,3200.0,3120.0,2990.0,2930.0,2900.0,3150.0,3160.0,3150.0,2750.0,3290.0,3220.0,3260.0,3230.0,3130.0,3050.0,2910.0,2960.0,3140.0,3230.0,3160.0,2740.0,3010.0,2960.0,2990.0,2950.0,2860.0,2790.0,2910.0,2890.0,3100.0,2940.0,2910.0,2540.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[12800.0,12100.0,12900.0,13600.0,14300.0,13900.0,13100.0,15200.0,17400.0,27800.0,23600.0,15300.0,11800.0,11100.0,11700.0,12300.0,12900.0,12500.0,11800.0,13000.0,14100.0,15800.0,15000.0,11200.0,11700.0,11000.0,11800.0,12500.0,13100.0,12800.0,12000.0,14500.0,19600.0,23800.0,20600.0,13100.0,14000.0,13200.0,14600.0,15400.0,16200.0,15900.0,14700.0,18000.0,23000.0,26500.0,30500.0,18800.0,13500.0,12900.0,14000.0,12800.0,12200.0,12500.0,13000.0,14900.0,17400.0,25800.0,23800.0,15500.0,26000.0,14100.0,12800.0,12200.0,12800.0,12300.0,11500.0,12100.0,13400.0,15200.0,14500.0,10900.0,10400.0,9900.0,10600.0,11000.0,11500.0,10900.0,10100.0,11300.0,12100.0,13800.0,13200.0,9600.0,10700.0,10100.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11400.0,10700.0,13000.0,16800.0,20100.0,18300.0,12200.0,11400.0,10600.0,11200.0,11800.0,12400.0,11900.0,11100.0,13500.0,17400.0,20600.0,19100.0,12500.0,11000.0,10300.0,10900.0,11400.0,12000.0,11500.0,10700.0,12400.0,15200.0,19300.0,18000.0,11800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4400.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,4300.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2050.0,1780.0,1700.0,1620.0,2100.0,1750.0,1630.0,1700.0,1900.0,1970.0,1790.0,1950.0,1980.0,1730.0,1650.0,1560.0,1570.0,1490.0,1480.0,1570.0,1810.0,1890.0,1730.0,1890.0,2030.0,1780.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1850.0,1950.0,1750.0,1950.0,1860.0,1630.0,1550.0,1470.0,1470.0,1400.0,1390.0,1470.0,1700.0,1780.0,1630.0,1780.0,2100.0,1840.0,1750.0,1660.0,1660.0,1570.0,1570.0,1660.0,1920.0,2000.0,2050.0,2500.0,2220.0,1950.0,1850.0,1760.0,2250.0,2660.0,2080.0,1760.0,2040.0,2130.0,2520.0,2760.0,2200.0,1950.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,2400.0,6200.0,3300.0,3600.0,3000.0,2250.0,2400.0,2300.0,1980.0,1900.0,2200.0,2000.0,1750.0,1750.0,1800.0,2050.0,2150.0,1980.0,2150.0,2160.0,1890.0,1800.0,1710.0,1750.0,1620.0,1620.0,1710.0,1980.0,2070.0,1890.0,2070.0,2220.0,1940.0,1850.0,1750.0,1800.0,1660.0,1660.0,1760.0,2040.0,2130.0,1940.0,2130.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2200.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,2050.0,1950.0,2100.0,1900.0,2050.0,2000.0,2150.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,1800.0,2050.0,1950.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,2150.0,2150.0,2000.0,2250.0,2200.0,2300.0,2150.0,2400.0,2200.0,2500.0,2350.0,2600.0,2900.0,2300.0,2100.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2450.0,2550.0,2700.0,2300.0,2100.0,2250.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0,2000.0,2250.0,2150.0,2250.0,2400.0,2200.0,2050.0,2150.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,2100.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,2150.0,2300.0,2100.0,1950.0,2050.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,1800.0,1950.0,1900.0,2050.0,2200.0,2000.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1950.0,1750.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,2150.0,1900.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1850.0,1650.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,2050.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1208.0,1185.0,1173.0,1150.0,1127.0,1104.0,1058.0,1058.0,1127.0,1150.0,1173.0,1127.0,1155.0,1133.0,1122.0,1100.0,1078.0,1056.0,1012.0,1012.0,1078.0,1100.0,1122.0,1078.0,1103.0,1082.0,1071.0,1050.0,1029.0,1008.0,966.0,966.0,1029.0,1050.0,1071.0,1029.0,1050.0,1030.0,1020.0,1000.0,980.0,960.0,920.0,920.0,980.0,1000.0,1020.0,980.0,1071.0,1051.0,1040.0,1020.0,1000.0,979.0,938.0,938.0,1000.0,1020.0,1040.0,1000.0,998.0,979.0,969.0,950.0,931.0,912.0,874.0,874.0,931.0,950.0,969.0,931.0,1029.0,1009.0,1000.0,980.0,960.0,941.0,902.0,902.0,960.0,1150.0,1100.0,960.0,945.0,927.0,918.0,900.0,882.0,864.0,828.0,828.0,882.0,900.0,918.0,882.0,903.0,886.0,877.0,860.0,843.0,826.0,791.0,791.0,843.0,860.0,877.0,843.0,861.0,845.0,836.0,820.0,804.0,787.0,754.0,754.0,804.0,820.0,836.0,804.0]}},{"title":"Reliance Industries","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Reliance Industries\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[65317,58897,52881,57600,51845,54849,61333,71460,116228,82467,88860,71340,74561,65706,71554,77897,71326,62985,89404,82845,82535,86488,81700,94834,94082,72975,82384,76027,76306,73408,115313,98320,99543,103987,83555,183012,107806,99697,97153,26468,31460,17371,20957,26685,20819,24105,21620,21346,21810,22496,22047,33752,28186,106436,189514,132382,134813,127496,116749,131192,107833,94870,106637,107231,114352,118928,110829,105691,125363,144438,112671,104188,117278,104944,98050,93622,86851,95614,87439,101601,98507,89155,100379,96298,127775,98731,88045,281824,199575,115098,110756,107972,99191,92631,100615,107632,133513,121613,531021,112043,84045,80992,403607,140538,96714,111425,89899,86555,93320,71994,85151,69536,66086,70051,66526,70339,60562,59007,58708,65542],"flat_reference_value":16827.390919015845,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[65000.0,63000.0,68000.0,66000.0,69000.0,70000.0,76000.0,85000.0,150000.0,118000.0,102000.0,96000.0,98000.0,105000.0,112000.0,115000.0,105000.0,108000.0,125000.0,120000.0,112000.0,105000.0,106000.0,102000.0,110000.0,105000.0,113000.0,110000.0,115000.0,118000.0,140000.0,132000.0,122000.0,117000.0,115000.0,112000.0,120000.0,115000.0,123000.0,120000.0,125000.0,126000.0,132000.0,165000.0,140000.0,130000.0,128000.0,125000.0,135000.0,130000.0,145000.0,245000.0,225000.0,270000.0,310000.0,255000.0,220000.0,195000.0,175000.0,165000.0,170000.0,160000.0,170000.0,160000.0,158000.0,185000.0,170000.0,175000.0,170000.0,165000.0,160000.0,155000.0,165000.0,155000.0,165000.0,160000.0,170000.0,165000.0,175000.0,195000.0,170000.0,165000.0,160000.0,155000.0,165000.0,155000.0,165000.0,160000.0,165000.0,170000.0,225000.0,235000.0,180000.0,170000.0,165000.0,160000.0,175000.0,180000.0,215000.0,175000.0,170000.0,180000.0,230000.0,205000.0,175000.0,165000.0,160000.0,155000.0,165000.0,155000.0,165000.0,160000.0,160000.0,155000.0,170000.0,185000.0,165000.0,155000.0,150000.0,145000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[84000.0,79000.0,85000.0,83000.0,81000.0,82000.0,88000.0,96000.0,215000.0,132000.0,104000.0,108000.0,102000.0,106000.0,112000.0,105000.0,101000.0,99000.0,168000.0,124000.0,115000.0,110000.0,108000.0,104000.0,112000.0,103000.0,109000.0,107000.0,114000.0,108000.0,156000.0,131000.0,118000.0,115000.0,109000.0,128000.0,119000.0,112000.0,121000.0,118000.0,116000.0,111000.0,125000.0,195000.0,142000.0,128000.0,134000.0,122000.0,126000.0,118000.0,135000.0,340000.0,265000.0,285000.0,310000.0,245000.0,210000.0,165000.0,152000.0,148000.0,144000.0,138000.0,142000.0,135000.0,132000.0,182000.0,145000.0,140000.0,138000.0,146000.0,134000.0,129000.0,135000.0,128000.0,136000.0,142000.0,134000.0,139000.0,137000.0,178000.0,144000.0,130000.0,128000.0,125000.0,132000.0,124000.0,129000.0,125000.0,127000.0,123000.0,168000.0,175000.0,134000.0,126000.0,121000.0,119000.0,128000.0,152000.0,198000.0,132000.0,124000.0,126000.0,215000.0,164000.0,128000.0,122000.0,116000.0,112000.0,115000.0,108000.0,114000.0,112000.0,109000.0,107000.0,118000.0,148000.0,116000.0,108000.0,104000.0,102000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[75000.0,72000.0,78000.0,74000.0,76000.0,80000.0,85000.0,95000.0,165000.0,125000.0,105000.0,98000.0,92000.0,88000.0,90000.0,86000.0,89000.0,91000.0,130000.0,115000.0,95000.0,92000.0,90000.0,94000.0,96000.0,91000.0,95000.0,93000.0,97000.0,95000.0,140000.0,110000.0,98000.0,94000.0,96000.0,115000.0,105000.0,98000.0,112000.0,102000.0,104000.0,101000.0,110000.0,160000.0,125000.0,115000.0,120000.0,110000.0,112000.0,108000.0,115000.0,210000.0,245000.0,280000.0,320000.0,260000.0,220000.0,180000.0,165000.0,150000.0,140000.0,132000.0,135000.0,128000.0,122000.0,175000.0,150000.0,138000.0,132000.0,130000.0,125000.0,120000.0,122000.0,118000.0,121000.0,125000.0,120000.0,135000.0,128000.0,165000.0,135000.0,126000.0,120000.0,122000.0,124000.0,118000.0,116000.0,115000.0,120000.0,122000.0,155000.0,170000.0,138000.0,125000.0,122000.0,124000.0,128000.0,140000.0,210000.0,145000.0,138000.0,142000.0,235000.0,165000.0,145000.0,132000.0,130000.0,125000.0,124000.0,120000.0,122000.0,118000.0,121000.0,125000.0,135000.0,155000.0,130000.0,122000.0,120000.0,123000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[78000.0,76000.0,80000.0,79000.0,82000.0,84000.0,86000.0,98000.0,165000.0,125000.0,105000.0,98000.0,95000.0,96000.0,94000.0,90000.0,88000.0,87000.0,105000.0,95000.0,92000.0,93000.0,96000.0,90000.0,92000.0,88000.0,90000.0,89000.0,88000.0,87000.0,98000.0,102000.0,92000.0,90000.0,88000.0,91000.0,93000.0,90000.0,95000.0,94000.0,96000.0,95000.0,98000.0,130000.0,108000.0,110000.0,118000.0,105000.0,104000.0,100000.0,115000.0,150000.0,145000.0,140000.0,138000.0,125000.0,122000.0,112000.0,108000.0,105000.0,106000.0,102000.0,105000.0,104000.0,103000.0,110000.0,102000.0,100000.0,104000.0,105000.0,100000.0,98000.0,99000.0,96000.0,98000.0,100000.0,97000.0,99000.0,98000.0,108000.0,100000.0,96000.0,94000.0,92000.0,95000.0,92000.0,93000.0,92000.0,91000.0,90000.0,96000.0,100000.0,92000.0,90000.0,88000.0,87000.0,92000.0,90000.0,112000.0,95000.0,93000.0,98000.0,120000.0,100000.0,92000.0,88000.0,85000.0,83000.0,84000.0,80000.0,82000.0,81000.0,80000.0,78000.0,79000.0,86000.0,78000.0,76000.0,74000.0,73000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[165000.0,170000.0,165000.0,160000.0,160000.0,165000.0,175000.0,185000.0,260000.0,200000.0,190000.0,185000.0,195000.0,200000.0,200000.0,195000.0,190000.0,195000.0,240000.0,215000.0,205000.0,200000.0,200000.0,195000.0,205000.0,200000.0,195000.0,190000.0,195000.0,200000.0,235000.0,225000.0,210000.0,205000.0,205000.0,225000.0,220000.0,210000.0,215000.0,205000.0,205000.0,205000.0,220000.0,300000.0,240000.0,240000.0,245000.0,230000.0,235000.0,225000.0,240000.0,340000.0,360000.0,390000.0,450000.0,350000.0,360000.0,300000.0,280000.0,280000.0,290000.0,270000.0,265000.0,255000.0,265000.0,300000.0,270000.0,260000.0,260000.0,255000.0,245000.0,235000.0,240000.0,230000.0,230000.0,230000.0,225000.0,225000.0,220000.0,245000.0,220000.0,210000.0,205000.0,200000.0,210000.0,205000.0,200000.0,190000.0,190000.0,185000.0,205000.0,215000.0,190000.0,185000.0,180000.0,175000.0,185000.0,185000.0,200000.0,175000.0,170000.0,175000.0,210000.0,190000.0,175000.0,175000.0,160000.0,155000.0,160000.0,150000.0,155000.0,150000.0,150000.0,150000.0,155000.0,165000.0,150000.0,145000.0,140000.0,140000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[52000.0,49000.0,56000.0,51000.0,54000.0,63000.0,78000.0,95000.0,320000.0,210000.0,160000.0,125000.0,115000.0,105000.0,108000.0,95000.0,86000.0,89000.0,185000.0,145000.0,115000.0,98000.0,92000.0,96000.0,94000.0,97000.0,93000.0,101000.0,96000.0,103000.0,165000.0,128000.0,142000.0,105000.0,98000.0,99000.0,93000.0,96000.0,94000.0,108000.0,103000.0,106000.0,112000.0,158000.0,124000.0,113000.0,108000.0,103000.0,106000.0,112000.0,145000.0,245000.0,205000.0,215000.0,305000.0,235000.0,185000.0,165000.0,175000.0,135000.0,122000.0,132000.0,112000.0,118000.0,122000.0,162000.0,126000.0,134000.0,142000.0,138000.0,120000.0,116000.0,112000.0,118000.0,122000.0,117000.0,111000.0,120000.0,128000.0,168000.0,133000.0,128000.0,116000.0,112000.0,108000.0,115000.0,107000.0,111000.0,106000.0,117000.0,158000.0,182000.0,126000.0,118000.0,122000.0,125000.0,128000.0,148000.0,158000.0,133000.0,127000.0,138000.0,205000.0,192000.0,142000.0,136000.0,130000.0,127000.0,138000.0,155000.0,136000.0,132000.0,136000.0,140000.0,150000.0,184000.0,146000.0,141000.0,140000.0,142000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[13400.0,12800.0,14200.0,13700.0,14500.0,15200.0,16800.0,18400.0,58200.0,38900.0,22400.0,19500.0,17200.0,15900.0,17800.0,17100.0,18200.0,19500.0,32800.0,24400.0,21800.0,19600.0,18300.0,16900.0,18800.0,17500.0,19200.0,18900.0,20100.0,20800.0,26900.0,22300.0,20500.0,21500.0,19700.0,18200.0,20500.0,19400.0,21200.0,20800.0,22100.0,22800.0,24200.0,34800.0,25500.0,23400.0,22600.0,21000.0,23500.0,22800.0,31400.0,68200.0,59400.0,64800.0,78500.0,56200.0,49800.0,44200.0,36500.0,32800.0,30200.0,28500.0,29400.0,27800.0,26500.0,28200.0,29600.0,30400.0,28900.0,27500.0,26800.0,25100.0,27800.0,26600.0,29500.0,28400.0,29200.0,30100.0,31800.0,38500.0,32200.0,30500.0,29400.0,27200.0,29800.0,28200.0,30100.0,29500.0,31200.0,32800.0,48200.0,46500.0,34800.0,33200.0,31500.0,29800.0,32500.0,31800.0,44800.0,34200.0,35600.0,38200.0,87400.0,51200.0,38800.0,36200.0,34800.0,32400.0,33500.0,31200.0,34800.0,33600.0,34200.0,35500.0,39800.0,38200.0,35400.0,34200.0,33100.0,30500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[118000.0,115000.0,124000.0,129000.0,127000.0,134000.0,131000.0,172000.0,415000.0,258000.0,212000.0,243000.0,184000.0,166000.0,283000.0,176000.0,156000.0,151000.0,418000.0,211000.0,167000.0,155000.0,151000.0,146000.0,152000.0,147000.0,173000.0,158000.0,152000.0,151000.0,248000.0,243000.0,166000.0,161000.0,164000.0,156000.0,161000.0,167000.0,174000.0,171000.0,184000.0,179000.0,198000.0,518000.0,328000.0,256000.0,221000.0,196000.0,191000.0,208000.0,263000.0,782000.0,638000.0,521000.0,617000.0,421000.0,458000.0,331000.0,287000.0,264000.0,249000.0,236000.0,246000.0,237000.0,251000.0,329000.0,244000.0,236000.0,234000.0,266000.0,238000.0,233000.0,226000.0,229000.0,264000.0,244000.0,224000.0,223000.0,284000.0,363000.0,246000.0,243000.0,234000.0,224000.0,229000.0,226000.0,224000.0,233000.0,229000.0,231000.0,338000.0,402000.0,254000.0,243000.0,246000.0,254000.0,264000.0,263000.0,542000.0,328000.0,284000.0,372000.0,703000.0,432000.0,303000.0,286000.0,283000.0,274000.0,263000.0,313000.0,284000.0,273000.0,304000.0,276000.0,284000.0,403000.0,294000.0,284000.0,276000.0,266000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[34000.0,32000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,48000.0,62000.0,128000.0,72000.0,52000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,51000.0,49000.0,47000.0,52000.0,64000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,52000.0,47000.0,56000.0,53000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,63000.0,82000.0,74000.0,65000.0,68000.0,62000.0,57000.0,66000.0,63000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,73000.0,78000.0,142000.0,105000.0,84000.0,78000.0,72000.0,82000.0,80000.0,96000.0,168000.0,128000.0,112000.0,185000.0,138000.0,110000.0,102000.0,96000.0,90000.0,86000.0,83000.0,92000.0,98000.0,92000.0,132000.0,112000.0,98000.0,92000.0,100000.0,92000.0,86000.0,80000.0,77000.0,84000.0,86000.0,81000.0,84000.0,92000.0,128000.0,104000.0,91000.0,85000.0,80000.0,79000.0,76000.0,84000.0,82000.0,80000.0,85000.0,132000.0,120000.0,98000.0,91000.0,87000.0,82000.0,88000.0,85000.0,94000.0,92000.0,89000.0,95000.0,148000.0,132000.0,108000.0,101000.0,95000.0,89000.0,94000.0,91000.0,99000.0,96000.0,94000.0,99000.0,118000.0,158000.0,132000.0,112000.0,106000.0,100000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[16500.0,16000.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,18500.0,19500.0,22000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,36000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,48000.0,62000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,52000.0,53000.0,54000.0,66000.0,88000.0,98000.0,94000.0,96000.0,78000.0,74000.0,76000.0,70000.0,66000.0,65000.0,63000.0,66000.0,62000.0,64000.0,68000.0,70000.0,67000.0,72000.0,74000.0,69000.0,65000.0,67000.0,72000.0,76000.0,71000.0,68000.0,70000.0,75000.0,72000.0,77000.0,76000.0,72000.0,68000.0,71000.0,77000.0,75000.0,73000.0,80000.0,78000.0,92000.0,108000.0,98000.0,94000.0,112000.0,88000.0,86000.0,89000.0,91000.0,89000.0,90000.0,93000.0,105000.0,118000.0,102000.0,96000.0,108000.0,92000.0,93000.0,95000.0,94000.0,98000.0,95000.0,103000.0,110000.0,122000.0,118000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[28100.0,26000.0,30700.0,31700.0,27300.0,23900.0,29100.0,29900.0,128600.0,58600.0,26000.0,23400.0,32400.0,30000.0,35400.0,36600.0,31500.0,27600.0,53600.0,34500.0,43000.0,33000.0,30000.0,27000.0,38900.0,36000.0,42500.0,43900.0,37800.0,33100.0,40300.0,51400.0,54600.0,39600.0,36000.0,32400.0,47500.0,44000.0,51900.0,53700.0,46200.0,40500.0,49300.0,120600.0,73400.0,48400.0,44000.0,49600.0,56200.0,52000.0,96400.0,153400.0,79600.0,47800.0,208200.0,104800.0,77200.0,57200.0,52000.0,46800.0,62600.0,58000.0,68400.0,115800.0,115900.0,53400.0,75000.0,66700.0,63800.0,73800.0,58000.0,52200.0,69100.0,74000.0,75500.0,78100.0,67200.0,58900.0,71700.0,183600.0,115400.0,85400.0,64000.0,67600.0,75600.0,70000.0,82600.0,85400.0,73500.0,64400.0,78400.0,110500.0,77000.0,77000.0,70000.0,78000.0,82100.0,166000.0,114700.0,92700.0,79800.0,69900.0,120100.0,167400.0,108600.0,83600.0,86000.0,68400.0,88600.0,82000.0,96800.0,100000.0,86100.0,75400.0,91800.0,149300.0,110200.0,90200.0,82000.0,73800.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[9400.0,9100.0,10600.0,12800.0,11200.0,11700.0,10300.0,10900.0,23800.0,26900.0,25100.0,18800.0,16800.0,19300.0,18100.0,20700.0,18500.0,19600.0,17400.0,17100.0,21800.0,24700.0,22900.0,21300.0,22600.0,20100.0,21400.0,20300.0,19700.0,22100.0,19500.0,19100.0,20500.0,21800.0,20700.0,23100.0,25400.0,21800.0,23300.0,22400.0,22000.0,23800.0,22100.0,21600.0,25700.0,23400.0,24900.0,27100.0,22500.0,21600.0,42000.0,108000.0,89000.0,53000.0,45000.0,62000.0,67000.0,48000.0,56000.0,35000.0,37000.0,34200.0,35800.0,65000.0,76000.0,51000.0,46000.0,43500.0,49000.0,45500.0,47000.0,38500.0,37500.0,34200.0,35800.0,33200.0,35500.0,39100.0,34800.0,34100.0,37200.0,43800.0,37800.0,34400.0,33500.0,30900.0,33500.0,36800.0,39700.0,35800.0,32900.0,32600.0,36300.0,42500.0,37600.0,33800.0,34200.0,32100.0,34800.0,33600.0,36700.0,42100.0,39800.0,35400.0,36900.0,38500.0,41100.0,34700.0,49200.0,37400.0,35900.0,34900.0,38500.0,40400.0,36100.0,35400.0,36900.0,38200.0,37500.0,35500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[62000.0,60000.0,61000.0,60000.0,59000.0,58000.0,60000.0,63000.0,78000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,69000.0,68000.0,70000.0,69000.0,68000.0,67000.0,68000.0,70000.0,71000.0,72000.0,70000.0,69000.0,72000.0,71000.0,70000.0,70000.0,69000.0,68000.0,70000.0,74000.0,72000.0,72000.0,70000.0,69000.0,71000.0,70000.0,70000.0,71000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,80000.0,74000.0,76000.0,75000.0,74000.0,78000.0,79000.0,88000.0,100000.0,98000.0,105000.0,112000.0,108000.0,110000.0,100000.0,96000.0,92000.0,95000.0,94000.0,90000.0,88000.0,86000.0,88000.0,86000.0,88000.0,85000.0,86000.0,84000.0,82000.0,84000.0,86000.0,84000.0,82000.0,80000.0,80000.0,82000.0,84000.0,80000.0,79000.0,78000.0,76000.0,84000.0,86000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,75000.0,74000.0,78000.0,80000.0,86000.0,80000.0,78000.0,78000.0,82000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,75000.0,74000.0,76000.0,75000.0,74000.0,74000.0,73000.0,74000.0,75000.0,78000.0,76000.0,75000.0,74000.0,73000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[28600.0,24900.0,29100.0,26800.0,27300.0,25500.0,29200.0,31100.0,27400.0,24800.0,25700.0,23600.0,32800.0,28900.0,33200.0,41500.0,30700.0,29500.0,45800.0,36700.0,96200.0,64100.0,30200.0,35300.0,36200.0,41400.0,48200.0,34500.0,34300.0,32400.0,51300.0,58700.0,35100.0,44200.0,41800.0,30500.0,39800.0,34200.0,39100.0,57600.0,37200.0,35000.0,59300.0,43400.0,37300.0,50100.0,42700.0,33000.0,49100.0,42600.0,47800.0,45500.0,136400.0,114900.0,114500.0,72900.0,76200.0,68400.0,78500.0,55800.0,58300.0,50900.0,82400.0,65700.0,110300.0,88400.0,148900.0,88100.0,85500.0,71200.0,69700.0,63800.0,65800.0,94100.0,89400.0,77300.0,62500.0,59800.0,136600.0,111200.0,87100.0,103800.0,88900.0,74800.0,74200.0,65400.0,93100.0,105300.0,90400.0,82600.0,154200.0,110300.0,105800.0,106400.0,91200.0,82000.0,82300.0,118800.0,101900.0,168200.0,108700.0,95200.0,192400.0,128900.0,108600.0,133900.0,108200.0,94300.0,120700.0,146300.0,125900.0,181400.0,111600.0,127800.0,211800.0,143500.0,141600.0,146300.0,126100.0,95500.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[18100.0,16900.0,18300.0,17600.0,18800.0,19400.0,20100.0,21300.0,29800.0,35100.0,26700.0,22100.0,21900.0,20100.0,21800.0,21100.0,22400.0,23000.0,23400.0,24600.0,22900.0,24100.0,23200.0,21000.0,22600.0,21300.0,23200.0,22400.0,23800.0,24500.0,26000.0,27300.0,24800.0,25700.0,26400.0,23300.0,24800.0,22800.0,24600.0,23900.0,25300.0,26700.0,28100.0,29000.0,27000.0,28600.0,30100.0,26500.0,27200.0,25600.0,32200.0,39100.0,42100.0,44700.0,40200.0,36300.0,33800.0,31900.0,30300.0,28100.0,29700.0,27800.0,30200.0,28900.0,30400.0,31600.0,33200.0,32100.0,29900.0,31100.0,30500.0,27800.0,28300.0,26400.0,28700.0,27800.0,29100.0,30300.0,32200.0,31000.0,29400.0,30300.0,29700.0,27300.0,28100.0,26500.0,29100.0,28000.0,29900.0,31400.0,33800.0,32700.0,31100.0,32500.0,31800.0,28600.0,30300.0,32000.0,48900.0,38300.0,35900.0,41200.0,68200.0,47800.0,37200.0,35600.0,34100.0,30800.0,31900.0,30100.0,32400.0,30900.0,31800.0,33700.0,34900.0,33000.0,31500.0,32400.0,31800.0,28900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,22000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,17000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,19000.0,18000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0]}},{"title":"List of football clubs in England","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"List of football clubs in England\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[23800,21563,21759,22229,25562,23193,20373,20458,19515,20525,26154,23884,34427,27606,23006,21716,22078,17954,20745,25633,21598,22213,23204,19921,23867,19552,26342,23647,21579,21219,27769,21989,17477,18368,22998,19337,24242,18010,18054,21464,20709,17081,18452,22135,15949,16417,16710,19780,20181,18849,64835,65774,36612,26560,33738,23866,21308,17649,18514,19080,26600,21535,21739,19483,20929,16753,22297,19811,18000,18980,14749,13962,15060,13168,14205,15132,16562,12949,14080,17366,18601,15859,17097,16944,18884,15018,16154,22395,25172,22488,20379,23491,19791,23196,22342,20829,21025,19089,20806,21394,26499,19937,18289,16408,16456,19863,21636,21405,21827,18829,17566,16097,15666,12079,12008,15155,13012,12058,11397,11917],"flat_reference_value":16948.404594075106,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[15700.0,15100.0,16400.0,15800.0,17300.0,19200.0,18500.0,20100.0,18300.0,17600.0,16500.0,15800.0,16800.0,15800.0,17200.0,16900.0,18300.0,16500.0,17600.0,21300.0,19600.0,18700.0,17600.0,17000.0,17900.0,16900.0,18200.0,17900.0,19700.0,22500.0,24100.0,22900.0,20500.0,19700.0,18600.0,18000.0,19000.0,17900.0,19300.0,18900.0,20700.0,18500.0,19900.0,24000.0,22000.0,20900.0,19700.0,19100.0,20100.0,19000.0,17300.0,13900.0,15100.0,18800.0,21200.0,22100.0,24000.0,21800.0,20500.0,19900.0,21100.0,19900.0,21300.0,21900.0,23500.0,24800.0,27400.0,26500.0,24200.0,23100.0,21800.0,21000.0,21900.0,20600.0,22000.0,21800.0,24100.0,21800.0,23200.0,27900.0,25100.0,24000.0,25800.0,28100.0,23200.0,21600.0,23200.0,23000.0,25400.0,22600.0,24300.0,29000.0,26400.0,25000.0,23600.0,22800.0,23900.0,22600.0,24100.0,23900.0,26000.0,28700.0,32000.0,29700.0,26700.0,25400.0,23900.0,23200.0,24200.0,22500.0,24200.0,23900.0,26200.0,23500.0,25100.0,29900.0,27000.0,25600.0,24100.0,23400.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[61420.0,53180.0,52410.0,51890.0,56740.0,44320.0,47650.0,64890.0,55910.0,54230.0,52140.0,53670.0,60950.0,52840.0,53120.0,52680.0,57410.0,42190.0,46830.0,66120.0,56450.0,54980.0,52760.0,54110.0,62340.0,53490.0,54180.0,53270.0,58160.0,51240.0,57890.0,68430.0,57920.0,55640.0,53810.0,55930.0,63780.0,54620.0,55310.0,54890.0,59640.0,44780.0,48920.0,69250.0,58410.0,56290.0,54730.0,56840.0,64910.0,56720.0,43850.0,31420.0,34680.0,52390.0,58740.0,61280.0,65430.0,59810.0,56940.0,58120.0,66840.0,57930.0,58410.0,64720.0,61350.0,55890.0,62470.0,72640.0,62180.0,59740.0,57620.0,58950.0,67120.0,58340.0,57890.0,57420.0,62810.0,46930.0,51240.0,73850.0,64920.0,61830.0,68410.0,71260.0,68940.0,58710.0,59480.0,61920.0,65340.0,47810.0,51690.0,71420.0,61250.0,57840.0,55390.0,56710.0,63480.0,54920.0,55140.0,55860.0,59420.0,51730.0,56280.0,66390.0,55810.0,52940.0,50620.0,51870.0,57930.0,49840.0,50210.0,49760.0,53890.0,41250.0,44680.0,61420.0,51340.0,48920.0,47180.0,48650.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[56200.0,51400.0,54100.0,57800.0,66400.0,48300.0,53900.0,72100.0,65300.0,58200.0,63400.0,57100.0,58700.0,52600.0,55800.0,59500.0,69200.0,50100.0,56400.0,74800.0,67200.0,60900.0,65800.0,59300.0,61200.0,54700.0,57400.0,62100.0,71500.0,52900.0,58100.0,76300.0,68900.0,62400.0,67300.0,60800.0,62500.0,55900.0,59100.0,63800.0,73400.0,51800.0,57200.0,75100.0,67800.0,61300.0,66200.0,59400.0,60900.0,54600.0,49200.0,52800.0,56100.0,54500.0,64800.0,68200.0,74600.0,64100.0,67500.0,61200.0,62400.0,55100.0,57900.0,61800.0,70900.0,49400.0,55200.0,73700.0,66100.0,59700.0,64900.0,58300.0,59800.0,53400.0,56200.0,60100.0,68800.0,48200.0,54600.0,71800.0,64500.0,58200.0,61400.0,55900.0,58100.0,51900.0,54800.0,58700.0,67200.0,46900.0,52800.0,69400.0,62700.0,56600.0,61900.0,55100.0,56400.0,50800.0,53200.0,56900.0,65100.0,45300.0,51200.0,67300.0,60800.0,54900.0,59700.0,53400.0,54800.0,49100.0,51700.0,55200.0,63500.0,43900.0,49800.0,65200.0,58900.0,53200.0,57800.0,51600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[21500.0,20600.0,20400.0,19800.0,19500.0,18200.0,18300.0,21400.0,21000.0,20700.0,20200.0,19000.0,20200.0,19500.0,19300.0,18600.0,18200.0,16300.0,16800.0,20000.0,19600.0,19300.0,18900.0,17800.0,18700.0,17900.0,17800.0,17200.0,16800.0,15800.0,16000.0,18200.0,17700.0,17500.0,17000.0,16000.0,16700.0,15900.0,15800.0,15300.0,14900.0,13300.0,13800.0,16100.0,15700.0,15500.0,15100.0,14200.0,14800.0,14200.0,13600.0,11200.0,11500.0,11800.0,12300.0,13900.0,14000.0,13600.0,13300.0,12600.0,13500.0,12900.0,12800.0,12400.0,12200.0,11600.0,11400.0,13000.0,12600.0,12400.0,12100.0,11400.0,12600.0,12000.0,11900.0,11600.0,11400.0,10300.0,10600.0,12500.0,12200.0,12000.0,11900.0,11300.0,11800.0,11200.0,11100.0,10800.0,10500.0,9500.0,9800.0,11500.0,11200.0,11000.0,10800.0,10200.0,10800.0,10300.0,10200.0,9900.0,9700.0,9200.0,9400.0,10500.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,9300.0,10000.0,9500.0,9400.0,9100.0,8900.0,8000.0,8300.0,9700.0,9500.0,9300.0,9100.0,8600.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[76000.0,70000.0,69000.0,68000.0,72000.0,62000.0,64000.0,74000.0,68000.0,67000.0,65000.0,64000.0,72000.0,65000.0,65000.0,63000.0,66000.0,56000.0,59000.0,68000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,59000.0,66000.0,59000.0,59000.0,58000.0,60000.0,54000.0,56000.0,62000.0,56000.0,56000.0,54000.0,53000.0,58000.0,52000.0,52000.0,51000.0,53000.0,46000.0,48000.0,54000.0,49000.0,49000.0,48000.0,47000.0,52000.0,47000.0,48000.0,55000.0,54000.0,48000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,50000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,42000.0,43000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,44000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,36000.0,37000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,31000.0,31000.0,35000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,28000.0,29000.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,36000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,34000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,33000.0,36000.0,40000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,36000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,37000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,37000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,42000.0,50000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,39000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,40000.0,37000.0,32000.0,33000.0,40000.0,36000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,32000.0,35000.0,37000.0,33000.0,32000.0,35000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,42000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,33000.0,28000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[16800.0,16300.0,17600.0,16500.0,22100.0,15900.0,16800.0,23800.0,21100.0,18400.0,16400.0,14700.0,18200.0,17200.0,19100.0,17900.0,21200.0,14100.0,16300.0,25900.0,22600.0,20100.0,17900.0,15800.0,18900.0,18800.0,20200.0,18900.0,22300.0,19300.0,20400.0,27200.0,23800.0,21200.0,18800.0,16800.0,18600.0,18300.0,19600.0,18400.0,21700.0,14400.0,16700.0,26600.0,23200.0,20600.0,18300.0,16200.0,20800.0,21100.0,27600.0,31200.0,27800.0,19700.0,19900.0,28400.0,26300.0,23200.0,20800.0,18400.0,19800.0,19700.0,21200.0,19800.0,23400.0,20200.0,22400.0,28600.0,25000.0,22100.0,19700.0,17600.0,20500.0,20200.0,21600.0,20300.0,23900.0,15900.0,18400.0,29300.0,25600.0,22700.0,24900.0,22800.0,19100.0,18200.0,20100.0,18900.0,22300.0,14800.0,17200.0,27400.0,23800.0,21200.0,18800.0,16600.0,19500.0,19300.0,20600.0,19400.0,22900.0,20800.0,22900.0,27900.0,24400.0,21600.0,19300.0,17100.0,18100.0,17200.0,19200.0,17900.0,21200.0,14100.0,16400.0,25900.0,22600.0,20100.0,17800.0,15800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[49700.0,46900.0,47400.0,48300.0,50200.0,45600.0,42200.0,53000.0,51600.0,49200.0,47900.0,48800.0,47700.0,44900.0,45400.0,46300.0,48100.0,39100.0,40500.0,50800.0,49500.0,47200.0,45900.0,46700.0,48200.0,45400.0,45800.0,46800.0,48600.0,47500.0,51200.0,51300.0,50000.0,47700.0,46400.0,47200.0,45100.0,42500.0,42900.0,43800.0,45500.0,37000.0,38300.0,48000.0,46800.0,44600.0,43400.0,44200.0,46600.0,44000.0,47500.0,44500.0,45500.0,42000.0,44000.0,48500.0,50500.0,47000.0,45500.0,46500.0,48700.0,45900.0,46400.0,52500.0,49200.0,51500.0,59000.0,51900.0,50500.0,48200.0,46900.0,47800.0,49200.0,46400.0,46900.0,47800.0,49700.0,40400.0,41800.0,52400.0,51100.0,48700.0,55500.0,57500.0,44800.0,42200.0,43100.0,43500.0,45200.0,36800.0,38600.0,47700.0,46500.0,44300.0,43100.0,43900.0,46100.0,43500.0,43900.0,44800.0,46500.0,46200.0,51700.0,49100.0,47800.0,45700.0,44400.0,45200.0,43000.0,40500.0,41000.0,41700.0,43400.0,37000.0,38500.0,45800.0,44600.0,42600.0,41400.0,42200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1510.0,1380.0,1320.0,1290.0,1410.0,1010.0,1090.0,1880.0,1760.0,1520.0,1460.0,1390.0,1580.0,1430.0,1360.0,1340.0,1470.0,1060.0,1140.0,1970.0,1840.0,1600.0,1510.0,1440.0,1690.0,1530.0,1450.0,1430.0,1560.0,1410.0,1490.0,2070.0,1980.0,1690.0,1610.0,1540.0,1640.0,1490.0,1410.0,1390.0,1510.0,1110.0,1190.0,2030.0,1920.0,1640.0,1560.0,1490.0,1470.0,1340.0,1260.0,1120.0,1060.0,990.0,1070.0,1810.0,1730.0,1470.0,1400.0,1330.0,1640.0,1490.0,1410.0,1400.0,1490.0,1280.0,1360.0,2010.0,1930.0,1640.0,1560.0,1490.0,1750.0,1590.0,1510.0,1490.0,1590.0,1430.0,1520.0,2150.0,2060.0,1750.0,1670.0,1590.0,1640.0,1490.0,1410.0,1400.0,1490.0,1110.0,1190.0,2020.0,1930.0,1640.0,1560.0,1490.0,1700.0,1540.0,1460.0,1450.0,1540.0,1330.0,1410.0,2080.0,2000.0,1700.0,1620.0,1540.0,1590.0,1440.0,1360.0,1350.0,1440.0,1080.0,1150.0,1950.0,1870.0,1590.0,1510.0,1440.0],"meta/muse-ember":[45240.0,39000.0,35880.0,43384.0,55224.0,37939.0,30927.0,54054.0,42900.0,37830.0,35100.0,44990.0,47560.0,41000.0,36966.0,44280.0,51660.0,29602.0,25318.0,55744.0,45100.0,39770.0,36900.0,45920.0,50460.0,43500.0,40020.0,47920.0,56376.0,45623.0,41847.0,58568.0,47850.0,42195.0,39150.0,48720.0,52780.0,45500.0,41860.0,50123.0,61152.0,45646.0,34011.0,61261.0,50050.0,44135.0,40950.0,50960.0,55100.0,47500.0,55936.0,62586.0,63840.0,48735.0,37668.0,50160.0,61655.0,46075.0,42750.0,53200.0,58568.0,49500.0,45540.0,73775.0,70092.0,49658.0,46654.0,66647.0,54450.0,48015.0,44550.0,56549.0,58000.0,50000.0,46000.0,54000.0,63000.0,42560.0,41600.0,67320.0,50600.0,48500.0,57600.0,68320.0,58580.0,50500.0,46460.0,54540.0,65448.0,45298.0,40047.0,73326.0,55550.0,48985.0,45450.0,56560.0,59740.0,51500.0,47380.0,56732.0,66744.0,52839.0,47535.0,69340.0,56650.0,49955.0,46350.0,57680.0,60900.0,52500.0,48300.0,56700.0,66780.0,47082.0,44363.0,71379.0,57750.0,50925.0,47250.0,58800.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[94200.0,91500.0,89800.0,93300.0,95900.0,99700.0,96000.0,99600.0,90600.0,85400.0,83600.0,88900.0,100600.0,97800.0,95900.0,99600.0,102500.0,90200.0,94900.0,104300.0,96800.0,91200.0,89300.0,94900.0,111300.0,108200.0,106100.0,110200.0,113400.0,114800.0,136600.0,121200.0,107100.0,100900.0,98800.0,105000.0,107000.0,104000.0,102000.0,106000.0,109000.0,103700.0,113100.0,111000.0,103000.0,97000.0,95000.0,101000.0,111300.0,108200.0,101800.0,99200.0,106600.0,105800.0,107100.0,115400.0,107100.0,100900.0,98800.0,110300.0,130500.0,126900.0,124400.0,129300.0,133000.0,142900.0,170000.0,146300.0,125700.0,118300.0,115900.0,123200.0,126300.0,122700.0,120400.0,125100.0,128600.0,115500.0,119200.0,131000.0,121500.0,114500.0,148000.0,152600.0,115600.0,112300.0,110200.0,114500.0,117700.0,103700.0,125400.0,146300.0,113500.0,104800.0,102600.0,109100.0,117700.0,114400.0,112200.0,116600.0,119900.0,121400.0,146700.0,129400.0,113300.0,106700.0,104500.0,111100.0,104900.0,101900.0,100000.0,103900.0,106800.0,105400.0,116800.0,114200.0,100900.0,95100.0,93100.0,99000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[51000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,51000.0,118000.0,125000.0,52000.0,48000.0,49000.0,51000.0,45000.0,53000.0,45000.0,48000.0,47000.0,53000.0,36000.0,34000.0,54000.0,50000.0,51000.0,53000.0,47000.0,55000.0,47000.0,50000.0,49000.0,55000.0,136000.0,153000.0,56000.0,52000.0,54000.0,55000.0,49000.0,57000.0,49000.0,51000.0,50000.0,57000.0,40000.0,36000.0,58000.0,54000.0,56000.0,57000.0,51000.0,59000.0,51000.0,53000.0,64000.0,74000.0,76000.0,43000.0,60000.0,56000.0,58000.0,59000.0,53000.0,62000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,62000.0,148000.0,164000.0,63000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,55000.0,64000.0,55000.0,57000.0,56000.0,64000.0,49000.0,113000.0,65000.0,60000.0,61000.0,279000.0,187000.0,66000.0,56000.0,59000.0,58000.0,66000.0,46000.0,55000.0,67000.0,62000.0,64000.0,66000.0,59000.0,68000.0,58000.0,61000.0,60000.0,68000.0,177000.0,253000.0,69000.0,64000.0,66000.0,68000.0,61000.0,70000.0,60000.0,63000.0,62000.0,70000.0,69000.0,115000.0,92000.0,67000.0,68000.0,70000.0,63000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2200.0,1800.0,1750.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2150.0,2250.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2150.0,1850.0,1750.0,2150.0,2100.0,2100.0,2050.0,2050.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,2100.0,1750.0,1700.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,1900.0,1900.0,1850.0,1750.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,1700.0,1650.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1850.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,1600.0,1550.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1750.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1750.0,1500.0,1450.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1650.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1400.0,1350.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1550.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1550.0,1300.0,1250.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[12650.0,10800.0,10450.0,11200.0,12300.0,10800.0,12100.0,12950.0,11000.0,11000.0,11350.0,11700.0,12900.0,11000.0,10700.0,11400.0,12600.0,11000.0,12350.0,13200.0,11200.0,11200.0,11600.0,11900.0,13500.0,11600.0,11200.0,12000.0,13150.0,13000.0,14500.0,13900.0,11800.0,11800.0,12100.0,12500.0,13050.0,11100.0,10750.0,11550.0,12700.0,11100.0,12500.0,13400.0,11300.0,11300.0,11650.0,12050.0,13200.0,11250.0,12900.0,13050.0,14300.0,12100.0,12600.0,13550.0,11450.0,11450.0,11800.0,12200.0,13550.0,11550.0,11150.0,12000.0,13200.0,13650.0,15250.0,13900.0,11750.0,11750.0,12100.0,12500.0,13800.0,11800.0,11400.0,12200.0,13450.0,12400.0,14500.0,14250.0,12000.0,12000.0,13100.0,13500.0,12150.0,10400.0,10050.0,10750.0,11850.0,10400.0,11650.0,12500.0,10600.0,10600.0,10850.0,11200.0,12900.0,11000.0,10650.0,11400.0,12550.0,13800.0,15500.0,13300.0,11150.0,11150.0,11550.0,11900.0,11150.0,9500.0,9200.0,9850.0,10850.0,9500.0,10650.0,11450.0,9700.0,9700.0,9950.0,10300.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1900.0,1950.0,2100.0,2150.0,2400.0,2900.0,3200.0,2900.0,2750.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2350.0,2450.0,2950.0,2800.0,2550.0,2400.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2350.0,2400.0,2600.0,3500.0,3900.0,3100.0,2850.0,2600.0,2450.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2350.0,2450.0,2650.0,2400.0,2500.0,3050.0,2850.0,2600.0,2450.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2300.0,2550.0,2750.0,2650.0,2850.0,3150.0,2950.0,2700.0,2550.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2450.0,2550.0,2800.0,3400.0,3900.0,3250.0,3000.0,2750.0,2550.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2450.0,2550.0,2750.0,2500.0,2650.0,3200.0,3000.0,2750.0,3500.0,3300.0,2350.0,2300.0,2450.0,2500.0,2700.0,2450.0,2600.0,3100.0,2900.0,2650.0,2500.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2400.0,2500.0,2750.0,3300.0,3900.0,3200.0,2950.0,2700.0,2500.0,2350.0,2250.0,2200.0,2350.0,2400.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,3000.0,2800.0,2550.0,2400.0,2250.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,4750.0,4500.0,4000.0,4000.0,6250.0,5500.0,5250.0,5000.0,5250.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,4940.0,4680.0,4160.0,4160.0,6500.0,5720.0,5460.0,5200.0,5460.0,5600.0,5600.0,5600.0,5320.0,5040.0,4930.0,4930.0,7000.0,6160.0,5880.0,5600.0,5880.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5225.0,4950.0,4400.0,4400.0,6875.0,6050.0,5775.0,5500.0,5775.0,5800.0,5800.0,6100.0,5800.0,5500.0,4650.0,4650.0,7250.0,6380.0,6090.0,5800.0,6090.0,5400.0,5400.0,5400.0,5130.0,4860.0,4320.0,4320.0,6750.0,5940.0,5670.0,5400.0,5670.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,4940.0,4680.0,4160.0,4160.0,6500.0,5720.0,5460.0,5720.0,6000.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4465.0,4230.0,3760.0,3760.0,5875.0,5170.0,4935.0,4700.0,4935.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4085.0,3870.0,3440.0,3440.0,5375.0,4730.0,4515.0,4300.0,4515.0,3900.0,3900.0,3900.0,3705.0,3510.0,3120.0,3120.0,4875.0,4290.0,4095.0,3900.0,4095.0]}},{"title":"Pig","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Pig\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[65168,64888,66311,64391,71336,59335,54832,53182,60770,61934,61848,58843,70399,62194,69365,61703,67557,52789,54510,56112,55803,60774,60138,56030,63251,61324,67324,65433,69793,55098,53347,56148,57523,60079,59734,57335,66784,65909,65264,58266,60030,48141,49137,56658,54344,56459,54766,50455,63392,59307,62163,65516,59615,51103,51392,49917,52866,55974,55231,54131,92142,79868,128609,82551,81138,65859,80813,68878,82534,78344,66759,64033,76288,63058,65498,63753,65395,58056,58807,70248,70967,86994,83063,69756,83121,78288,87566,76965,94946,78225,75576,76590,80026,83879,84063,81456,94174,82081,81684,75474,68213,50534,50614,54255,57027,59322,59237,56659,60990,51340,60604,52247,56854,49471,46666,52575,49957,51584,60327,50469],"flat_reference_value":16848.56513747287,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[145000.0,138000.0,151000.0,143000.0,148000.0,132000.0,125000.0,132000.0,145000.0,152000.0,148000.0,137000.0,150000.0,140000.0,156000.0,147000.0,154000.0,138000.0,129000.0,136000.0,149000.0,158000.0,152000.0,142000.0,154000.0,143000.0,160000.0,151000.0,157000.0,142000.0,132000.0,140000.0,153000.0,161000.0,156000.0,146000.0,165000.0,195000.0,167000.0,158000.0,162000.0,145000.0,137000.0,180000.0,160000.0,165000.0,157000.0,149000.0,161000.0,154000.0,175000.0,185000.0,178000.0,160000.0,150000.0,155000.0,168000.0,175000.0,167000.0,155000.0,168000.0,156000.0,173000.0,165000.0,170000.0,150000.0,145000.0,151000.0,164000.0,172000.0,164000.0,151000.0,190000.0,155000.0,169000.0,160000.0,166000.0,148000.0,139000.0,146000.0,159000.0,169000.0,161000.0,148000.0,161000.0,149000.0,166000.0,157000.0,162000.0,145000.0,136000.0,143000.0,156000.0,165000.0,157000.0,145000.0,157000.0,147000.0,165000.0,154000.0,159000.0,142000.0,133000.0,140000.0,153000.0,162000.0,154000.0,142000.0,153000.0,142000.0,158000.0,150000.0,155000.0,138000.0,130000.0,137000.0,149000.0,158000.0,150000.0,138000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[128000.0,122000.0,134000.0,131000.0,130000.0,114000.0,110000.0,112000.0,123000.0,132000.0,130000.0,121000.0,129000.0,120000.0,136000.0,131000.0,132000.0,115000.0,112000.0,113000.0,124000.0,133000.0,131000.0,122000.0,130000.0,119000.0,134000.0,130000.0,129000.0,113000.0,111000.0,115000.0,125000.0,134000.0,132000.0,126000.0,142000.0,164000.0,139000.0,134000.0,133000.0,118000.0,116000.0,117000.0,126000.0,135000.0,132000.0,125000.0,133000.0,124000.0,141000.0,158000.0,154000.0,132000.0,126000.0,125000.0,131000.0,137000.0,134000.0,128000.0,136000.0,125000.0,138000.0,134000.0,132000.0,121000.0,168000.0,152000.0,129000.0,133000.0,129000.0,126000.0,144000.0,121000.0,131000.0,126000.0,125000.0,111000.0,109000.0,110000.0,118000.0,124000.0,121000.0,115000.0,123000.0,113000.0,125000.0,120000.0,119000.0,106000.0,105000.0,106000.0,113000.0,119000.0,116000.0,110000.0,117000.0,110000.0,128000.0,116000.0,114000.0,101000.0,99000.0,100000.0,107000.0,113000.0,110000.0,104000.0,111000.0,102000.0,114000.0,110000.0,109000.0,96000.0,95000.0,96000.0,103000.0,108000.0,105000.0,100000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[84200.0,82500.0,89400.0,86100.0,81300.0,71200.0,69800.0,72400.0,84600.0,93200.0,90100.0,76500.0,81900.0,80200.0,87800.0,84100.0,79600.0,69400.0,67900.0,71100.0,82300.0,91500.0,88400.0,74200.0,79400.0,77800.0,85100.0,82600.0,78200.0,68100.0,66500.0,70300.0,81200.0,89700.0,86400.0,73100.0,82400.0,108300.0,87200.0,83900.0,79500.0,68800.0,67100.0,71400.0,81800.0,88600.0,85300.0,72400.0,78100.0,76300.0,92400.0,104800.0,93200.0,74500.0,71800.0,73900.0,83200.0,89100.0,84700.0,72600.0,77400.0,75200.0,81600.0,78900.0,74800.0,68400.0,114200.0,94800.0,81500.0,85900.0,82700.0,71300.0,106500.0,82100.0,80400.0,77200.0,73100.0,64300.0,63100.0,65800.0,75200.0,81400.0,78600.0,66800.0,72900.0,70800.0,77600.0,74100.0,70500.0,61800.0,60900.0,63400.0,72800.0,78900.0,75600.0,64200.0,70400.0,68700.0,74800.0,71900.0,68300.0,59700.0,58600.0,61200.0,70500.0,76200.0,73100.0,62500.0,68100.0,66400.0,72900.0,69800.0,66500.0,58200.0,57100.0,59600.0,68800.0,74500.0,71200.0,60800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[82000.0,83000.0,86000.0,82000.0,80000.0,72000.0,70000.0,71000.0,78000.0,82000.0,81000.0,72000.0,78000.0,78000.0,82000.0,77000.0,76000.0,68000.0,66000.0,67000.0,73000.0,77000.0,76000.0,67000.0,72000.0,73000.0,76000.0,72000.0,70000.0,63000.0,61000.0,62000.0,68000.0,71000.0,70000.0,66000.0,80000.0,105000.0,75000.0,70000.0,68000.0,61000.0,59000.0,61000.0,66000.0,68000.0,66000.0,59000.0,64000.0,63000.0,70000.0,74000.0,68000.0,60000.0,58000.0,57000.0,61000.0,63000.0,62000.0,56000.0,60000.0,59000.0,61000.0,58000.0,56000.0,51000.0,50000.0,50000.0,54000.0,56000.0,55000.0,50000.0,62000.0,54000.0,56000.0,53000.0,52000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,50000.0,52000.0,51000.0,46000.0,50000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,48000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,46000.0,48000.0,47000.0,43000.0,47000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,43000.0,45000.0,44000.0,40000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,37000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[128000.0,125000.0,127000.0,122000.0,120000.0,108000.0,104000.0,106000.0,115000.0,120000.0,118000.0,110000.0,120000.0,115000.0,118000.0,112000.0,112000.0,100000.0,97000.0,99000.0,106000.0,110000.0,108000.0,100000.0,110000.0,104000.0,106000.0,101000.0,100000.0,90000.0,88000.0,90000.0,96000.0,100000.0,98000.0,96000.0,120000.0,150000.0,104000.0,97000.0,96000.0,86000.0,84000.0,85000.0,90000.0,93000.0,90000.0,86000.0,93000.0,90000.0,95000.0,104000.0,100000.0,88000.0,84000.0,83000.0,86000.0,88000.0,87000.0,84000.0,90000.0,85000.0,87000.0,82000.0,80000.0,74000.0,72000.0,72000.0,75000.0,78000.0,77000.0,73000.0,80000.0,75000.0,77000.0,72000.0,72000.0,66000.0,65000.0,66000.0,68000.0,71000.0,70000.0,68000.0,74000.0,70000.0,73000.0,70000.0,71000.0,66000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0,80000.0,85000.0,84000.0,92000.0,90000.0,93000.0,90000.0,90000.0,82000.0,80000.0,81000.0,85000.0,88000.0,86000.0,83000.0,88000.0,83000.0,85000.0,82000.0,82000.0,75000.0,73000.0,74000.0,77000.0,79000.0,77000.0,74000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[118000.0,112000.0,122000.0,117000.0,119000.0,111000.0,107000.0,111000.0,127000.0,130000.0,123000.0,112000.0,117000.0,119000.0,125000.0,121000.0,117000.0,116000.0,105000.0,111000.0,129000.0,132000.0,124000.0,114000.0,120000.0,118000.0,124000.0,120000.0,117000.0,110000.0,108000.0,116000.0,130000.0,134000.0,127000.0,120000.0,168000.0,268000.0,135000.0,128000.0,124000.0,116000.0,112000.0,121000.0,131000.0,129000.0,122000.0,119000.0,127000.0,132000.0,143000.0,140000.0,127000.0,121000.0,114000.0,119000.0,133000.0,131000.0,124000.0,117000.0,122000.0,126000.0,132000.0,128000.0,123000.0,117000.0,146000.0,137000.0,131000.0,129000.0,122000.0,116000.0,136000.0,119000.0,125000.0,121000.0,117000.0,111000.0,107000.0,113000.0,125000.0,123000.0,116000.0,109000.0,111000.0,113000.0,119000.0,115000.0,111000.0,105000.0,103000.0,107000.0,119000.0,117000.0,111000.0,105000.0,109000.0,112000.0,126000.0,113000.0,109000.0,103000.0,101000.0,105000.0,115000.0,113000.0,112000.0,101000.0,127000.0,116000.0,119000.0,111000.0,107000.0,101000.0,99000.0,103000.0,113000.0,111000.0,105000.0,99000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[53214.0,49876.0,53402.0,51030.0,47551.0,40912.0,38120.0,41305.0,48673.0,54019.0,50845.0,42110.0,52040.0,48920.0,52315.0,49610.0,46802.0,39540.0,37205.0,40118.0,47330.0,52890.0,49975.0,41380.0,51200.0,47650.0,51450.0,48200.0,45800.0,38900.0,36540.0,43210.0,50820.0,56100.0,53400.0,43000.0,68900.0,77150.0,66200.0,60450.0,51800.0,44050.0,41300.0,44600.0,52400.0,57800.0,55100.0,46200.0,55300.0,52700.0,69100.0,66300.0,57800.0,42600.0,39800.0,42900.0,50500.0,55600.0,53000.0,44100.0,48600.0,45900.0,48800.0,46500.0,43700.0,37100.0,34900.0,37800.0,44300.0,48900.0,46200.0,38700.0,93400.0,62100.0,57200.0,49800.0,46900.0,39800.0,37200.0,40100.0,47200.0,52000.0,49500.0,41500.0,47600.0,44800.0,47900.0,45200.0,42800.0,36200.0,34100.0,36900.0,64800.0,54300.0,45000.0,37800.0,44200.0,41500.0,61900.0,48400.0,39800.0,33700.0,31800.0,34200.0,40300.0,44500.0,42100.0,35200.0,42000.0,39400.0,42300.0,40100.0,37900.0,32100.0,30200.0,32600.0,38400.0,42200.0,40000.0,33500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[158400.0,147200.0,157800.0,143600.0,151200.0,138500.0,141900.0,146300.0,144100.0,154600.0,143200.0,161500.0,160400.0,156800.0,157200.0,152300.0,151000.0,146200.0,145100.0,150200.0,147600.0,158300.0,152700.0,161800.0,165200.0,160300.0,161500.0,156100.0,155200.0,149400.0,148800.0,154100.0,151600.0,162400.0,156100.0,166200.0,212400.0,308700.0,193200.0,178900.0,169300.0,164100.0,161200.0,170600.0,169800.0,178300.0,165400.0,182600.0,177600.0,173200.0,194800.0,191200.0,180400.0,164300.0,163500.0,169100.0,166800.0,178200.0,170300.0,181700.0,172300.0,167100.0,168900.0,162400.0,162100.0,156200.0,155600.0,161200.0,158900.0,169400.0,162300.0,173800.0,175400.0,170200.0,171900.0,165800.0,165200.0,158900.0,158400.0,164100.0,161500.0,172600.0,165800.0,177200.0,180900.0,175200.0,177200.0,170800.0,170300.0,163700.0,163200.0,169100.0,166400.0,177900.0,170800.0,182400.0,186200.0,186700.0,182500.0,175700.0,175400.0,168400.0,168100.0,174000.0,171500.0,183000.0,175700.0,187800.0,191600.0,185400.0,187700.0,180600.0,180400.0,173100.0,172900.0,178900.0,176400.0,188200.0,180600.0,193200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[105000.0,101000.0,103000.0,100000.0,97000.0,90000.0,86000.0,88000.0,99000.0,104000.0,102000.0,93000.0,110000.0,106000.0,108000.0,105000.0,101000.0,94000.0,90000.0,92000.0,104000.0,109000.0,107000.0,97000.0,114000.0,110000.0,112000.0,109000.0,105000.0,98000.0,94000.0,100000.0,113000.0,118000.0,116000.0,105000.0,135000.0,330000.0,160000.0,135000.0,125000.0,115000.0,110000.0,112000.0,125000.0,130000.0,128000.0,117000.0,128000.0,124000.0,122000.0,130000.0,128000.0,114000.0,107000.0,109000.0,122000.0,128000.0,126000.0,114000.0,122000.0,118000.0,120000.0,117000.0,113000.0,106000.0,195000.0,150000.0,124000.0,129000.0,127000.0,116000.0,121000.0,117000.0,119000.0,116000.0,112000.0,104000.0,99000.0,101000.0,114000.0,119000.0,117000.0,107000.0,116000.0,112000.0,114000.0,111000.0,107000.0,100000.0,95000.0,97000.0,109000.0,114000.0,112000.0,103000.0,111000.0,107000.0,109000.0,106000.0,102000.0,95000.0,91000.0,93000.0,104000.0,109000.0,107000.0,98000.0,106000.0,102000.0,104000.0,101000.0,97000.0,90000.0,86000.0,88000.0,99000.0,104000.0,102000.0,93000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[61000.0,64000.0,59000.0,57000.0,56000.0,54000.0,51000.0,53000.0,60000.0,61000.0,58000.0,55000.0,62600.0,65500.0,60300.0,58500.0,57300.0,55000.0,52700.0,58000.0,62000.0,62600.0,59700.0,56200.0,65300.0,68300.0,62800.0,61000.0,59800.0,57300.0,54900.0,61800.0,67000.0,65300.0,62200.0,58600.0,90000.0,100000.0,88000.0,82000.0,80000.0,71000.0,68000.0,71000.0,81000.0,81000.0,78000.0,73000.0,88000.0,92000.0,97000.0,90000.0,84000.0,77000.0,74000.0,88000.0,91000.0,88000.0,86000.0,79000.0,83000.0,87000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,73000.0,70000.0,73000.0,83000.0,93000.0,86000.0,75000.0,108000.0,92000.0,91000.0,78000.0,74000.0,76000.0,68000.0,70000.0,80000.0,80000.0,77000.0,72000.0,74000.0,77000.0,76000.0,69000.0,68000.0,78000.0,68000.0,64000.0,80000.0,74000.0,70000.0,66000.0,73000.0,76000.0,88000.0,88000.0,77000.0,67000.0,66000.0,63000.0,72000.0,81000.0,69000.0,65000.0,65000.0,82000.0,69000.0,70000.0,60000.0,57000.0,55000.0,57000.0,65000.0,65000.0,62000.0,59000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[178900.0,175400.0,177200.0,172000.0,170300.0,161700.0,154800.0,160000.0,175400.0,180600.0,182300.0,168600.0,185100.0,181600.0,183300.0,178000.0,176200.0,167300.0,160200.0,165500.0,181600.0,186900.0,188700.0,174400.0,193400.0,189700.0,191600.0,186000.0,184100.0,174800.0,167400.0,181600.0,201100.0,205100.0,205000.0,182300.0,254800.0,309900.0,222100.0,201900.0,199900.0,189800.0,181700.0,187700.0,199900.0,205800.0,207800.0,192100.0,233000.0,228500.0,265300.0,280000.0,261700.0,231600.0,211700.0,212500.0,228500.0,235200.0,237400.0,219500.0,230900.0,226400.0,228700.0,222000.0,219800.0,208700.0,205800.0,206500.0,226400.0,233100.0,235300.0,217600.0,216300.0,212200.0,214200.0,208000.0,205900.0,195500.0,187200.0,193400.0,212200.0,218400.0,220500.0,203800.0,203800.0,199900.0,201900.0,196000.0,194000.0,184200.0,176400.0,182300.0,199900.0,205800.0,207800.0,192100.0,193400.0,189700.0,191600.0,186000.0,184100.0,174800.0,167400.0,173000.0,189700.0,195300.0,197200.0,182300.0,185100.0,181600.0,183300.0,178000.0,176200.0,167300.0,160200.0,165500.0,181600.0,186900.0,188700.0,174400.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6480000.0,6050000.0,6420000.0,6350000.0,6560000.0,6180000.0,5920000.0,6020000.0,6340000.0,6620000.0,6780000.0,6150000.0,6710000.0,6330000.0,6650000.0,6580000.0,6720000.0,6460000.0,6210000.0,6280000.0,6540000.0,6840000.0,7010000.0,6390000.0,6880000.0,6520000.0,6770000.0,6720000.0,6890000.0,6610000.0,6360000.0,7150000.0,7480000.0,7260000.0,7350000.0,6720000.0,10800000.0,18900000.0,11400000.0,8600000.0,8800000.0,8350000.0,8000000.0,8350000.0,9000000.0,9200000.0,9450000.0,8650000.0,9300000.0,9000000.0,10800000.0,12200000.0,11400000.0,10200000.0,9700000.0,9900000.0,10100000.0,10500000.0,11100000.0,9600000.0,9700000.0,9200000.0,9000000.0,8700000.0,8900000.0,8550000.0,8200000.0,8550000.0,8800000.0,9100000.0,9350000.0,8550000.0,8900000.0,8550000.0,8850000.0,8750000.0,9000000.0,8650000.0,8300000.0,9000000.0,8900000.0,9250000.0,9550000.0,8750000.0,9100000.0,8800000.0,9000000.0,8950000.0,9200000.0,8850000.0,8500000.0,8700000.0,9050000.0,9400000.0,9650000.0,8900000.0,9550000.0,9250000.0,9450000.0,9350000.0,9650000.0,9300000.0,8900000.0,9100000.0,9450000.0,9800000.0,10100000.0,9250000.0,9450000.0,9150000.0,9350000.0,9300000.0,9550000.0,9150000.0,8800000.0,9000000.0,9350000.0,9650000.0,9950000.0,9100000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,3800.0,3600.0,4000.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4300.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,4600.0,4500.0,3800.0,3700.0,4000.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4300.0,4700.0,4800.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,5600.0,6200.0,5000.0,4500.0,4300.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4300.0,4300.0,4000.0,3900.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,3800.0,3700.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3600.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3600.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3600.0,3500.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[87340.0,101720.0,87560.0,94230.0,76410.0,68020.0,58710.0,77840.0,90450.0,83260.0,71580.0,69030.0,84160.0,98240.0,83890.0,77560.0,72310.0,61080.0,55930.0,69770.0,86840.0,78410.0,67940.0,66280.0,106270.0,115660.0,104890.0,97820.0,91170.0,76430.0,73220.0,100750.0,146280.0,125410.0,86530.0,84290.0,98650.0,126870.0,107620.0,90340.0,84130.0,71360.0,66810.0,80920.0,100180.0,95680.0,80130.0,84670.0,133240.0,145780.0,154310.0,126720.0,112900.0,97960.0,94570.0,106880.0,138510.0,118730.0,107840.0,115610.0,152790.0,166210.0,152090.0,174580.0,131440.0,115020.0,110430.0,149210.0,155040.0,137620.0,124290.0,126180.0,121930.0,143070.0,129020.0,110780.0,103170.0,84930.0,79360.0,99580.0,126410.0,111670.0,95120.0,100130.0,113420.0,126610.0,111540.0,107280.0,94170.0,78820.0,74290.0,92080.0,114650.0,101520.0,89090.0,91810.0,114980.0,130340.0,115970.0,103510.0,95770.0,82290.0,90110.0,93830.0,115890.0,106510.0,93860.0,93420.0,119180.0,138040.0,120430.0,111780.0,102910.0,87590.0,86310.0,99520.0,121480.0,117090.0,99170.0,99020.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[27900.0,25500.0,26400.0,24900.0,25200.0,23900.0,22100.0,22800.0,23900.0,24600.0,25100.0,26100.0,26900.0,24200.0,25100.0,23900.0,24100.0,22900.0,21300.0,21900.0,23100.0,23800.0,24300.0,25200.0,26100.0,23800.0,24500.0,23100.0,23400.0,22300.0,20700.0,21400.0,22600.0,23700.0,26800.0,35600.0,82400.0,61800.0,34800.0,27900.0,26700.0,25100.0,23200.0,23900.0,24700.0,25400.0,26100.0,26900.0,27400.0,25100.0,26700.0,27800.0,26000.0,24500.0,22600.0,23200.0,24400.0,25100.0,25700.0,26600.0,26400.0,23900.0,24700.0,23500.0,23700.0,22400.0,20700.0,21300.0,22400.0,23200.0,23800.0,24600.0,25100.0,22800.0,23600.0,22300.0,22500.0,21400.0,19800.0,20300.0,21400.0,22100.0,22700.0,23500.0,23900.0,21800.0,22500.0,21300.0,21500.0,20400.0,18900.0,19400.0,20400.0,21100.0,21700.0,22400.0,23100.0,21000.0,21700.0,20500.0,20700.0,19700.0,18200.0,18700.0,19700.0,20300.0,20900.0,21600.0,22200.0,20200.0,20900.0,19800.0,19900.0,18900.0,17500.0,18000.0,18900.0,19500.0,20100.0,20800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[63600.0,61200.0,62400.0,60000.0,58800.0,55800.0,54000.0,55200.0,61800.0,63000.0,61200.0,57000.0,61500.0,59200.0,60300.0,58000.0,56800.0,53900.0,52200.0,53400.0,59700.0,60900.0,59200.0,55100.0,60400.0,58100.0,59300.0,57000.0,55900.0,53000.0,51300.0,52400.0,58700.0,59900.0,58100.0,54200.0,59400.0,65100.0,58200.0,56000.0,54900.0,52100.0,50400.0,51500.0,57700.0,58800.0,57100.0,53200.0,59400.0,57100.0,62200.0,60000.0,54900.0,52100.0,50400.0,51500.0,57700.0,58800.0,57100.0,53200.0,56200.0,54100.0,55100.0,53000.0,51900.0,49300.0,47700.0,48800.0,54600.0,55700.0,54100.0,50400.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,46500.0,45000.0,46000.0,51500.0,52500.0,51000.0,47500.0,50900.0,49000.0,49900.0,48000.0,47000.0,44600.0,43200.0,44200.0,49400.0,50400.0,49000.0,45600.0,47700.0,45900.0,46800.0,45000.0,44100.0,41900.0,40500.0,41400.0,46400.0,47300.0,45900.0,42800.0,43500.0,41800.0,42600.0,41000.0,40200.0,38100.0,36900.0,37700.0,42200.0,43100.0,41800.0,39000.0]}},{"title":"Mohammed V International Airport","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Mohammed V International Airport\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[8099,7211,7882,7330,7799,7311,7851,7809,7355,7636,7305,7985,9875,8595,10043,8766,7931,7756,8333,7573,7323,8139,8218,8134,9183,8526,9995,8825,9444,9447,9346,8975,8367,10006,8967,10383,10223,10532,9951,9518,8818,8436,8734,10671,9168,8933,8507,8732,10158,8886,7934,7558,6256,5411,5239,4670,4554,4800,4746,6596,6177,4797,5836,5180,6030,5899,7123,6389,6040,6783,6363,5241,5772,6361,7328,7223,7780,7925,8604,8758,7843,7788,8473,11576,8960,8532,9714,9348,9297,8905,10243,9730,9622,10628,9787,10916,12496,10201,11150,10040,9411,8546,8715,9113,8374,9120,8595,9721,10280,8831,9031,8593,8152,8137,8847,17887,8098,8358,8846,10145],"flat_reference_value":17025.852330435457,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[3900.0,3700.0,4100.0,4300.0,4600.0,5100.0,6100.0,6500.0,5000.0,4500.0,4100.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,4400.0,4700.0,4900.0,5400.0,6500.0,6900.0,5400.0,4800.0,4400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4200.0,4800.0,5100.0,5300.0,5800.0,7000.0,7400.0,5800.0,5300.0,4800.0,5100.0,4800.0,4500.0,5100.0,5500.0,5700.0,6300.0,7600.0,8100.0,6300.0,5700.0,5200.0,5500.0,5200.0,4900.0,5200.0,2600.0,2500.0,2900.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,4400.0,5400.0,5800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4400.0,4500.0,4100.0,4200.0,5000.0,5500.0,5900.0,6600.0,8000.0,8500.0,6800.0,6100.0,5700.0,6800.0,5700.0,5400.0,6200.0,6700.0,7000.0,7600.0,9000.0,9400.0,8100.0,7100.0,6300.0,6700.0,6100.0,5900.0,6600.0,7100.0,7500.0,8100.0,9600.0,10100.0,7900.0,7300.0,6600.0,7000.0,6500.0,6200.0,7000.0,7500.0,7900.0,8500.0,10200.0,10700.0,8400.0,7700.0,7100.0,8000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[8600.0,7900.0,8700.0,8900.0,9200.0,9800.0,10600.0,10300.0,9100.0,8800.0,8400.0,8800.0,9000.0,8200.0,9100.0,9400.0,9700.0,10300.0,11200.0,10900.0,9600.0,9300.0,8900.0,9300.0,9600.0,8800.0,9700.0,10000.0,10300.0,10900.0,11900.0,11600.0,10200.0,9900.0,9500.0,11100.0,10400.0,9500.0,10500.0,10800.0,11000.0,11700.0,12700.0,12400.0,11000.0,10600.0,10100.0,10500.0,10800.0,9600.0,9200.0,4300.0,3900.0,4400.0,5300.0,5100.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,4700.0,4900.0,5600.0,7900.0,8600.0,8300.0,6600.0,6900.0,7300.0,6300.0,5900.0,7600.0,8300.0,8600.0,9300.0,10300.0,11400.0,11000.0,9600.0,9400.0,9900.0,14600.0,10700.0,9400.0,10200.0,10600.0,10900.0,11700.0,12800.0,12500.0,13500.0,10700.0,9900.0,10400.0,10600.0,9700.0,10400.0,10800.0,11100.0,11800.0,12900.0,12600.0,11100.0,10700.0,10200.0,10800.0,11200.0,10300.0,11500.0,11300.0,11600.0,12300.0,13400.0,13100.0,11600.0,11300.0,11500.0,14800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[13800.0,14200.0,15400.0,15100.0,16200.0,15900.0,19400.0,18900.0,16100.0,15500.0,14100.0,15000.0,14500.0,14800.0,16200.0,16900.0,17100.0,16800.0,20800.0,20400.0,17300.0,16700.0,15200.0,16100.0,15600.0,15400.0,17300.0,17800.0,17500.0,17200.0,21500.0,21100.0,18000.0,17400.0,15900.0,16800.0,16200.0,16100.0,18400.0,18700.0,18100.0,18300.0,22600.0,22100.0,18900.0,18200.0,16800.0,17500.0,17800.0,16900.0,12800.0,6400.0,7100.0,8500.0,11200.0,11600.0,9800.0,10100.0,9200.0,10400.0,9900.0,9700.0,11200.0,11800.0,12400.0,14900.0,17600.0,16800.0,13900.0,14200.0,12600.0,11800.0,12200.0,14800.0,16400.0,16900.0,17600.0,18500.0,22200.0,21800.0,18400.0,18100.0,17900.0,19600.0,17800.0,17100.0,19200.0,19600.0,19900.0,20400.0,24100.0,23500.0,25800.0,20100.0,18500.0,19700.0,18900.0,18600.0,20400.0,20800.0,21200.0,21600.0,25200.0,24800.0,21100.0,20700.0,19200.0,20400.0,19500.0,19200.0,21100.0,21500.0,22000.0,22400.0,26100.0,25700.0,21900.0,21400.0,19800.0,21000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[16500.0,15000.0,16200.0,16300.0,16800.0,17500.0,19800.0,19900.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,17200.0,15500.0,16800.0,16900.0,17400.0,18000.0,20500.0,20600.0,17600.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17800.0,16000.0,17300.0,17400.0,17900.0,19000.0,21200.0,21000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,18300.0,16500.0,17800.0,17800.0,18300.0,19200.0,21800.0,21600.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,18500.0,17000.0,15500.0,8500.0,8800.0,10500.0,12500.0,12000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10800.0,10500.0,9500.0,10500.0,10800.0,11500.0,14000.0,15500.0,14500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,14000.0,14500.0,15500.0,16500.0,19000.0,18800.0,16000.0,15800.0,16500.0,19000.0,17000.0,15500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18500.0,21000.0,20500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,15500.0,16500.0,16800.0,17000.0,18000.0,20000.0,19800.0,16800.0,16200.0,15800.0,16500.0,16000.0,14500.0,15200.0,15500.0,15800.0,16500.0,18500.0,18300.0,15500.0,15200.0,15500.0,20000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[14500.0,13800.0,14800.0,14500.0,14800.0,15200.0,16800.0,16900.0,15000.0,14800.0,14200.0,15000.0,15800.0,14500.0,15500.0,15400.0,15300.0,15600.0,17500.0,17600.0,15600.0,15500.0,14800.0,15600.0,16200.0,14800.0,15800.0,15600.0,15200.0,15800.0,17600.0,17500.0,15500.0,15400.0,14800.0,15500.0,15800.0,14300.0,15200.0,15000.0,14600.0,15200.0,16800.0,16700.0,14800.0,14600.0,14000.0,14800.0,14500.0,13000.0,11500.0,6000.0,5800.0,6500.0,7800.0,7600.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,7200.0,7500.0,7000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7800.0,9200.0,10200.0,9800.0,8800.0,8800.0,8800.0,9500.0,9000.0,9200.0,10000.0,10200.0,10500.0,11000.0,12300.0,12200.0,11000.0,11200.0,11200.0,13000.0,12200.0,11200.0,11800.0,11800.0,11800.0,12000.0,13200.0,13200.0,12800.0,12000.0,11500.0,12200.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12300.0,13500.0,13400.0,12200.0,12200.0,11800.0,12500.0,12800.0,11600.0,12200.0,12300.0,12400.0,12600.0,13600.0,13500.0,12400.0,12500.0,12300.0,15500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9200.0,8400.0,9600.0,9000.0,9400.0,10300.0,11000.0,10800.0,9300.0,9000.0,8700.0,10200.0,9000.0,8600.0,9800.0,9400.0,9600.0,10600.0,11400.0,11200.0,9700.0,9300.0,9000.0,10600.0,9700.0,9300.0,10600.0,10100.0,10300.0,11400.0,12300.0,12100.0,10500.0,10100.0,9800.0,11400.0,10600.0,10100.0,11500.0,11000.0,11200.0,12400.0,13400.0,13100.0,11500.0,11000.0,10700.0,12500.0,11400.0,10900.0,16500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6400.0,7000.0,7300.0,7800.0,8200.0,8700.0,9200.0,8900.0,9300.0,10200.0,10600.0,10200.0,11300.0,12200.0,12600.0,11200.0,10600.0,14200.0,13400.0,12200.0,15600.0,13200.0,12800.0,13400.0,14800.0,15600.0,15200.0,13400.0,13000.0,16400.0,23800.0,16200.0,13600.0,13200.0,13800.0,13500.0,15200.0,16400.0,16000.0,21500.0,17600.0,14200.0,15400.0,14300.0,13600.0,14800.0,13900.0,14400.0,15900.0,16800.0,16200.0,14600.0,14100.0,14700.0,16800.0,15600.0,14200.0,14900.0,14300.0,14800.0,16400.0,17300.0,16700.0,16200.0,17900.0,21500.0,29500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1923.0,1745.0,1952.0,2034.0,2187.0,2456.0,2874.0,3041.0,2318.0,2056.0,1832.0,2214.0,1987.0,1812.0,2084.0,2175.0,2301.0,2598.0,2987.0,3154.0,2423.0,2145.0,1928.0,2387.0,2094.0,1913.0,2198.0,2284.0,2426.0,2745.0,3123.0,3298.0,2534.0,2267.0,2031.0,2512.0,2215.0,2023.0,2314.0,2408.0,2567.0,2893.0,3312.0,3456.0,2678.0,2389.0,2145.0,2643.0,2354.0,2287.0,3821.0,2134.0,1623.0,1548.0,1789.0,1956.0,1674.0,1562.0,1438.0,1589.0,1492.0,1387.0,1564.0,1621.0,1748.0,1932.0,2245.0,2413.0,1987.0,1824.0,1713.0,1945.0,1823.0,1765.0,2043.0,2198.0,2376.0,2764.0,3215.0,3389.0,2612.0,2431.0,2358.0,4127.0,2384.0,2198.0,2476.0,2589.0,2743.0,3098.0,3567.0,3742.0,5238.0,3421.0,2614.0,2987.0,2543.0,2387.0,2689.0,2794.0,2956.0,3345.0,3876.0,4054.0,3123.0,2845.0,2621.0,3148.0,2698.0,2476.0,2812.0,2934.0,3128.0,3567.0,4098.0,4287.0,3315.0,3042.0,3124.0,5462.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5300.0,5000.0,5500.0,5700.0,6300.0,7400.0,8400.0,7900.0,6300.0,5800.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,5500.0,6100.0,6300.0,7000.0,8300.0,9300.0,8800.0,7000.0,6400.0,6100.0,6700.0,6200.0,5800.0,6500.0,6700.0,7400.0,9200.0,10600.0,9500.0,7500.0,6800.0,6500.0,7100.0,6700.0,6300.0,7000.0,7300.0,8100.0,9500.0,10700.0,10100.0,8100.0,7400.0,7000.0,7700.0,6700.0,6300.0,12500.0,8200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4800.0,4700.0,5000.0,5300.0,5000.0,5600.0,5100.0,4700.0,5200.0,5400.0,5600.0,7600.0,8600.0,8200.0,6600.0,6200.0,7200.0,8500.0,6200.0,7000.0,7600.0,8000.0,8800.0,10200.0,11800.0,11200.0,8800.0,8200.0,9000.0,11500.0,7600.0,7200.0,8000.0,8400.0,9300.0,10800.0,12400.0,11800.0,18500.0,11000.0,9200.0,10200.0,8400.0,8000.0,8900.0,9300.0,10200.0,11800.0,13500.0,12800.0,10300.0,9600.0,9100.0,10000.0,8800.0,8400.0,9300.0,9700.0,10700.0,12300.0,14200.0,13400.0,10800.0,10000.0,9500.0,10400.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[11000.0,10400.0,11800.0,12400.0,13500.0,15200.0,17000.0,17600.0,14800.0,13000.0,11800.0,13500.0,11500.0,10800.0,12300.0,13000.0,14200.0,16000.0,17800.0,18400.0,15500.0,13600.0,12300.0,14100.0,12100.0,11400.0,13000.0,13700.0,15000.0,16900.0,18800.0,19400.0,16400.0,14400.0,13000.0,14900.0,12800.0,12000.0,13700.0,14400.0,15800.0,17800.0,19800.0,20500.0,17300.0,15200.0,13700.0,15700.0,13500.0,12600.0,9500.0,4800.0,4200.0,5000.0,6800.0,7800.0,7200.0,6600.0,6100.0,6700.0,6200.0,5800.0,7200.0,8400.0,9500.0,11200.0,14000.0,14600.0,11800.0,10100.0,9500.0,10600.0,10000.0,9400.0,11200.0,12300.0,14000.0,16200.0,18500.0,19100.0,15700.0,14000.0,14600.0,16800.0,14000.0,13200.0,15100.0,16200.0,17900.0,20200.0,22400.0,23000.0,20200.0,17900.0,16200.0,17900.0,15700.0,14800.0,16800.0,17900.0,19600.0,21900.0,24100.0,24700.0,20800.0,19000.0,17400.0,19000.0,16800.0,15900.0,17900.0,19100.0,20800.0,23200.0,25400.0,26000.0,21900.0,20200.0,18500.0,20200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[5900.0,5500.0,6200.0,6700.0,7200.0,8500.0,9300.0,9700.0,7900.0,6700.0,6200.0,7100.0,6400.0,5900.0,6700.0,7300.0,7800.0,8600.0,10100.0,10600.0,8600.0,7300.0,6800.0,7700.0,7100.0,6600.0,7500.0,9300.0,8800.0,9600.0,11300.0,11800.0,9600.0,8200.0,7600.0,8600.0,8000.0,7400.0,8400.0,9100.0,9800.0,12000.0,13800.0,13200.0,10700.0,9100.0,8500.0,9600.0,8200.0,7600.0,18100.0,8900.0,7100.0,5800.0,6500.0,7100.0,8000.0,6100.0,5500.0,5700.0,4400.0,3900.0,4600.0,4800.0,5400.0,7100.0,8600.0,9200.0,8300.0,7100.0,9000.0,6400.0,5300.0,10300.0,9700.0,10100.0,10700.0,13300.0,14800.0,15000.0,12100.0,10000.0,11300.0,12400.0,9200.0,8600.0,10100.0,10600.0,11300.0,12400.0,14600.0,15300.0,18000.0,12100.0,9800.0,11100.0,9900.0,9200.0,10400.0,11300.0,12200.0,13300.0,15700.0,16400.0,13300.0,11300.0,10500.0,12600.0,10500.0,9800.0,11000.0,12000.0,12900.0,14100.0,16600.0,17400.0,14100.0,12000.0,11100.0,14100.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[9800.0,10200.0,11500.0,12000.0,11800.0,13500.0,16800.0,17500.0,12500.0,11800.0,10800.0,13200.0,11200.0,11800.0,13200.0,13800.0,13500.0,15800.0,19500.0,20200.0,14200.0,13500.0,12200.0,15000.0,12000.0,12600.0,14000.0,14800.0,14500.0,46000.0,78000.0,26000.0,15500.0,14800.0,13400.0,16200.0,13000.0,13800.0,15600.0,16200.0,15800.0,18500.0,23500.0,24800.0,16800.0,15900.0,14500.0,17800.0,14200.0,14800.0,10500.0,4200.0,3100.0,3800.0,5200.0,5600.0,5000.0,5800.0,6500.0,7800.0,7200.0,7600.0,8800.0,8200.0,8500.0,9800.0,12500.0,13000.0,10500.0,11200.0,10800.0,12500.0,10500.0,11200.0,12800.0,13500.0,13200.0,15200.0,18800.0,19500.0,14800.0,16500.0,145000.0,82000.0,17500.0,18200.0,19800.0,20500.0,20000.0,23000.0,28500.0,29500.0,24000.0,25500.0,19500.0,22500.0,19000.0,20000.0,22500.0,23500.0,22800.0,26500.0,32000.0,33500.0,25000.0,24000.0,21500.0,25500.0,22500.0,23500.0,25500.0,26500.0,25800.0,29500.0,36000.0,37500.0,27500.0,26500.0,24000.0,68000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,5400.0,5900.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,5600.0,6200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5300.0,5700.0,6200.0,5800.0,5500.0,5700.0,5900.0,6500.0,6200.0,5800.0,6000.0,5900.0,5700.0,6100.0,6700.0,6200.0,5900.0,6100.0,6300.0,6900.0,6600.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6100.0,6500.0,7100.0,6600.0,6300.0,6500.0,6700.0,7300.0,7000.0,6800.0,8000.0,6000.0,3400.0,2600.0,2300.0,2400.0,2800.0,3300.0,3700.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,4100.0,3900.0,3700.0,4200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,5300.0,5700.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,5700.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,6100.0,11500.0,9500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6700.0,6600.0,6900.0,7300.0,8500.0,8000.0,13000.0,7400.0,7600.0,8200.0,8700.0,8100.0,8400.0,8300.0,8100.0,8500.0,9100.0,8400.0,8600.0,8900.0,9200.0,9900.0,9700.0,9100.0,9400.0,9300.0,9200.0,10400.0,11200.0,9600.0,12500.0,11600.0,10200.0,11000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,28000.0,29000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,30000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,31000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,31000.0,32000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,17000.0,9000.0,8000.0,9000.0,11000.0,12000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10500.0,13000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,20000.0,21000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,22000.0,23000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,23000.0,24000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,29000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1050.0,990.0,1160.0,1110.0,1260.0,1380.0,1620.0,1680.0,1150.0,1090.0,1020.0,1260.0,1180.0,1120.0,1300.0,1260.0,1420.0,1560.0,1800.0,1870.0,1310.0,1240.0,1180.0,1430.0,1300.0,1240.0,1450.0,1400.0,1590.0,1730.0,2010.0,2090.0,1450.0,1380.0,1310.0,1590.0,1480.0,1410.0,1650.0,1590.0,1800.0,1960.0,2280.0,2370.0,1640.0,1560.0,1480.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,2600.0,2800.0,2400.0,2600.0,3100.0,3000.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,2400.0,1900.0,1750.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2600.0,3050.0,3150.0,2450.0,2250.0,2000.0,2500.0,2450.0,2100.0,2300.0,2150.0,2350.0,2650.0,3050.0,3150.0,2450.0,2250.0,2100.0,3700.0,2800.0,2100.0,2350.0,2250.0,2450.0,2750.0,3150.0,3250.0,3300.0,2550.0,2200.0,2650.0,2350.0,2200.0,2450.0,2350.0,2550.0,2850.0,3250.0,3350.0,2650.0,2450.0,2250.0,2750.0,2450.0,2300.0,2550.0,2450.0,2650.0,2900.0,3300.0,3400.0,2850.0,2800.0,3300.0,4700.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2100.0,1950.0,2200.0,2050.0,2150.0,2350.0,2600.0,2750.0,2300.0,2200.0,2050.0,2400.0,2150.0,2050.0,2300.0,2250.0,2350.0,2500.0,2800.0,2900.0,2450.0,2350.0,2200.0,2550.0,2300.0,2150.0,2450.0,2350.0,2500.0,2750.0,3100.0,3200.0,2700.0,2550.0,2400.0,2750.0,2500.0,2350.0,2650.0,2500.0,2700.0,2950.0,3350.0,3500.0,2900.0,2750.0,2600.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,1750.0,1650.0,1800.0,1950.0,2050.0,1850.0,1900.0,1750.0,1950.0,1850.0,1750.0,1950.0,1850.0,2000.0,2200.0,2450.0,2600.0,2200.0,2250.0,2150.0,2450.0,2350.0,2250.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,2850.0,3150.0,3300.0,2800.0,2950.0,4400.0,5900.0,3400.0,2850.0,2900.0,2750.0,2850.0,3150.0,3500.0,3650.0,4700.0,3400.0,3050.0,3300.0,3000.0,2800.0,2950.0,2850.0,3000.0,3250.0,3650.0,3800.0,3200.0,3100.0,2950.0,3350.0,3150.0,2950.0,3200.0,3050.0,3200.0,3500.0,3900.0,4050.0,3450.0,3300.0,3150.0,3550.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2500.0,2700.0,2700.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0,2600.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1600.0,1000.0,900.0,1000.0,1200.0,1400.0,1500.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,3500.0,2200.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2800.0,3000.0]}},{"title":"Hawkwind","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Hawkwind\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[83923,29785,26821,35124,26283,21833,20383,21707,21010,20596,26818,25142,27684,23265,24535,23756,28660,23352,20489,21827,19643,20525,29096,22763,26716,20890,22835,21800,21015,19067,20394,22056,23010,22096,21152,20415,23604,23128,21662,22220,21967,23507,21325,22555,20562,33826,28655,20416,23454,21381,23971,26762,27129,23282,23712,25219,20529,28728,23499,24247,23553,23816,29303,27538,26969,24901,24030,26891,26174,23974,21603,22032,22854,19155,21422,21451,21531,28872,22509,25506,24475,22411,46335,24709,24778,21438,29720,26837,29215,26729,24080,26437,24516,23931,26286,23584,26105,23068,25979,29398,22386,21283,22880,25031,21447,23528,21114,23456,24878,24578,24868,28631,33117,21360,27026,27435,21024,20843,20540,20885],"flat_reference_value":16931.751805250984,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[54000.0,33000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,27000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,33000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,23000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,32000.0,29000.0,35000.0,30000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,63000.0,31000.0,26000.0,22000.0,24000.0,29000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,28000.0,25000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,28000.0,26000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[88400.0,39200.0,37600.0,41500.0,37800.0,35400.0,36200.0,35900.0,34700.0,36500.0,36100.0,37900.0,36800.0,32400.0,35600.0,35900.0,40200.0,35100.0,35800.0,35300.0,34200.0,35700.0,41800.0,36400.0,36100.0,31800.0,35200.0,34100.0,34600.0,33500.0,34800.0,34500.0,37900.0,38400.0,36700.0,35800.0,35900.0,31500.0,34900.0,33800.0,34400.0,33600.0,34900.0,35200.0,35600.0,44600.0,41200.0,36500.0,36700.0,33100.0,36400.0,38900.0,38500.0,36200.0,36800.0,36400.0,35700.0,38600.0,36100.0,36900.0,36500.0,31900.0,34800.0,33900.0,34200.0,32800.0,33700.0,33900.0,36800.0,35900.0,34500.0,34800.0,34200.0,29600.0,32400.0,31700.0,31900.0,30800.0,31800.0,31600.0,30900.0,32300.0,48200.0,33500.0,32600.0,28400.0,31500.0,35600.0,32800.0,30400.0,31200.0,31400.0,30600.0,31900.0,31100.0,31500.0,30800.0,27900.0,30200.0,34400.0,30900.0,28700.0,29500.0,29800.0,28900.0,30100.0,29400.0,29900.0,29200.0,25600.0,28400.0,29800.0,32500.0,27900.0,28400.0,28600.0,27800.0,29100.0,28500.0,31400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[128500.0,56200.0,47100.0,49800.0,45300.0,42100.0,41400.0,43500.0,40200.0,42600.0,43100.0,44800.0,42900.0,39500.0,41800.0,40600.0,44500.0,39200.0,38100.0,39900.0,38600.0,41200.0,39700.0,41000.0,40800.0,37400.0,39500.0,38200.0,37600.0,36100.0,36900.0,37800.0,42300.0,39100.0,38400.0,39600.0,39200.0,36100.0,38500.0,37200.0,36400.0,35800.0,36700.0,38100.0,37900.0,43200.0,41800.0,39400.0,38700.0,36200.0,41500.0,45300.0,43800.0,38900.0,37600.0,36900.0,36100.0,39200.0,37400.0,38100.0,38300.0,34900.0,36700.0,35400.0,34800.0,33200.0,33900.0,34600.0,38800.0,36200.0,35100.0,36400.0,35800.0,32900.0,35100.0,33700.0,33400.0,32100.0,32600.0,33500.0,32800.0,33900.0,74200.0,42100.0,36200.0,32800.0,34700.0,33100.0,32400.0,31200.0,31800.0,32500.0,31900.0,33400.0,32700.0,33800.0,33600.0,31200.0,32900.0,36800.0,33500.0,30800.0,31400.0,32100.0,31500.0,32400.0,31900.0,33100.0,32800.0,30100.0,31700.0,31200.0,30800.0,29600.0,30200.0,30900.0,30400.0,31600.0,31000.0,32200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[46000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28500.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26500.0,27000.0,27500.0,27000.0,27000.0,25500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23500.0,23500.0,24000.0,24500.0,24500.0,24000.0,24500.0,23000.0,23500.0,23000.0,22500.0,21500.0,21500.0,21500.0,22000.0,22500.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20500.0,23000.0,21000.0,20500.0,21000.0,20000.0,21500.0,23500.0,23000.0,21000.0,20500.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19500.0,20500.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,31000.0,19500.0,18000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[105000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,46000.0,46000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,44000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,39000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,58000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,29000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[62400.0,27100.0,20600.0,22900.0,20200.0,19400.0,18600.0,18900.0,20100.0,20400.0,20200.0,21300.0,19900.0,19600.0,19200.0,18400.0,20700.0,18900.0,17300.0,17000.0,17800.0,17500.0,17100.0,17800.0,17100.0,16800.0,16300.0,15900.0,15600.0,15200.0,14700.0,14800.0,16400.0,15500.0,15300.0,16000.0,16100.0,16500.0,16900.0,16600.0,16400.0,16900.0,16000.0,15800.0,17300.0,18500.0,17400.0,17800.0,17100.0,16300.0,17900.0,17500.0,16100.0,15300.0,14400.0,14200.0,16300.0,15000.0,14500.0,15200.0,14700.0,14300.0,14000.0,13800.0,13500.0,13200.0,12700.0,12600.0,13300.0,13700.0,15500.0,14600.0,14400.0,14000.0,13700.0,13400.0,13200.0,13000.0,12500.0,12600.0,13900.0,13700.0,52000.0,19600.0,15300.0,14900.0,14700.0,14500.0,14400.0,14200.0,13700.0,13800.0,14900.0,15200.0,15400.0,16000.0,16400.0,16200.0,16600.0,19300.0,17500.0,16900.0,16300.0,16400.0,17700.0,18200.0,18400.0,19100.0,19500.0,19100.0,19300.0,18900.0,18700.0,18300.0,17700.0,17900.0,19600.0,21600.0,20900.0,21700.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[17800.0,12200.0,11400.0,12450.0,10900.0,10500.0,10200.0,10550.0,10900.0,11100.0,11250.0,10100.0,11500.0,9700.0,11100.0,10750.0,11800.0,10200.0,9900.0,10100.0,10400.0,10800.0,10750.0,9800.0,11000.0,9400.0,10600.0,10300.0,10450.0,9900.0,9600.0,9800.0,10300.0,10500.0,10600.0,12100.0,10500.0,9000.0,10200.0,10000.0,10150.0,9600.0,9400.0,9550.0,10200.0,11200.0,11500.0,9700.0,10400.0,9300.0,12300.0,13500.0,12800.0,10900.0,10200.0,10100.0,10400.0,10700.0,10650.0,9800.0,10200.0,8800.0,9900.0,9600.0,9700.0,9300.0,9000.0,10200.0,12500.0,10800.0,10000.0,9200.0,9800.0,8600.0,9500.0,9200.0,9350.0,8900.0,8700.0,8850.0,9100.0,9400.0,23500.0,12800.0,10100.0,8800.0,9500.0,10800.0,10200.0,9000.0,8700.0,8900.0,9200.0,9500.0,9600.0,8700.0,9500.0,8300.0,9600.0,11000.0,9800.0,8800.0,8500.0,8600.0,9000.0,9300.0,9400.0,8500.0,9200.0,8000.0,9000.0,10200.0,9800.0,8600.0,8400.0,8500.0,8800.0,9100.0,9200.0,8400.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[46000.0,23500.0,18500.0,21500.0,18500.0,17500.0,16000.0,17000.0,18500.0,19500.0,20000.0,21500.0,20000.0,18500.0,17500.0,20500.0,18000.0,16500.0,15500.0,16500.0,17500.0,18500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19500.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,15500.0,16500.0,19500.0,18500.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,20500.0,25000.0,27000.0,23000.0,20500.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,19000.0,19500.0,20000.0,23500.0,19500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,21000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,18500.0,19000.0,54000.0,30000.0,19500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,22500.0,19500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,16000.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[52400.0,38900.0,33300.0,44900.0,37600.0,31100.0,29200.0,29500.0,32000.0,32900.0,33200.0,34800.0,31900.0,30400.0,29800.0,30400.0,40100.0,31600.0,28700.0,29000.0,30500.0,31400.0,45700.0,36300.0,30800.0,29400.0,28800.0,29400.0,29100.0,27600.0,26800.0,27100.0,37500.0,32400.0,30600.0,32200.0,29700.0,28300.0,27800.0,28300.0,28100.0,26700.0,25900.0,26100.0,27500.0,38300.0,31600.0,31200.0,28600.0,27300.0,26800.0,27300.0,27000.0,25700.0,24900.0,25200.0,33500.0,29300.0,28600.0,29100.0,27500.0,26300.0,25800.0,32300.0,27000.0,24700.0,24000.0,24200.0,32500.0,28300.0,27500.0,28000.0,26500.0,25200.0,24700.0,25200.0,25000.0,23800.0,23000.0,23300.0,24500.0,25200.0,65500.0,38000.0,25400.0,24200.0,23700.0,33200.0,27000.0,22800.0,22100.0,22300.0,24500.0,25200.0,25400.0,25900.0,24300.0,23200.0,30700.0,26200.0,24000.0,21800.0,21200.0,21400.0,23500.0,24200.0,24400.0,24900.0,23200.0,22100.0,21700.0,29100.0,23900.0,20900.0,20200.0,20400.0,22500.0,23100.0,23400.0,30800.0],"meta/muse-ember":[58000.0,26000.0,23500.0,24500.0,25000.0,25500.0,26000.0,25500.0,24000.0,25000.0,23500.0,27000.0,22500.0,20500.0,22000.0,21500.0,23000.0,23500.0,24500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,21500.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,23000.0,22000.0,21500.0,22000.0,23000.0,22500.0,21500.0,21000.0,20500.0,19000.0,22500.0,23500.0,24000.0,26500.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24500.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,21500.0,22000.0,21000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21500.0,22000.0,21500.0,21000.0,22500.0,20500.0,21000.0,21500.0,20000.0,21500.0,22000.0,22500.0,23000.0,23500.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,24000.0,21000.0,22500.0,21000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24500.0,25000.0,26000.0,38000.0,28000.0,25000.0,52000.0,32000.0,23500.0,22000.0,24000.0,23500.0,27500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25500.0,24500.0,24000.0,27000.0,28500.0,23500.0,22500.0,24500.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25500.0,28500.0,26000.0,22500.0,25500.0,22000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25500.0,24500.0,24000.0,23500.0,24500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[190080.0,109725.0,82693.0,72930.0,65148.0,65340.0,64015.0,60500.0,57200.0,57750.0,58850.0,61600.0,56160.0,49400.0,50440.0,66300.0,65363.0,62920.0,59935.0,57200.0,54080.0,54600.0,55640.0,58240.0,53136.0,46740.0,47724.0,50184.0,50616.0,54120.0,55656.0,54120.0,51168.0,51660.0,52584.0,55104.0,50328.0,44270.0,45202.0,49909.0,50398.0,58949.0,71115.0,87142.0,94505.0,85628.0,72320.0,62630.0,51322.0,43890.0,53350.0,62832.0,61182.0,57112.0,54692.0,50820.0,50336.0,57750.0,54142.0,51744.0,49421.0,41496.0,42370.0,42432.0,42848.0,45760.0,47008.0,45760.0,43264.0,43680.0,44512.0,46592.0,42552.0,37430.0,38218.0,40188.0,40582.0,47674.0,51200.0,48541.0,42983.0,43439.0,42158.0,44128.0,40176.0,35340.0,36084.0,37944.0,38316.0,44194.0,47148.0,49104.0,56098.0,62496.0,55726.0,47914.0,39917.0,33440.0,34144.0,35904.0,38069.0,45690.0,49720.0,47238.0,41001.0,39917.0,39547.0,41395.0,37762.0,31635.0,32301.0,34645.0,36014.0,41026.0,44402.0,42125.0,37403.0,36713.0,36700.0,39161.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2800.0,2500.0,2850.0,3650.0,3000.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,2850.0,3050.0,3200.0,2850.0,2550.0,2750.0,2900.0,3050.0,3400.0,3550.0,3350.0,3050.0,2950.0,3300.0,3150.0,3050.0,2750.0,2900.0,3050.0,3250.0,3550.0,3700.0,3450.0,3150.0,3050.0,3150.0,3300.0,3150.0,2850.0,3100.0,3350.0,3750.0,4450.0,4250.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3650.0,3950.0,3550.0,3350.0,4300.0,4750.0,4950.0,5250.0,5450.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4850.0,5000.0,4650.0,4350.0,7600.0,6400.0,6000.0,6250.0,6400.0,6050.0,5650.0,5500.0,5650.0,5800.0,5450.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5700.0,6000.0,6200.0,5900.0,5600.0,5450.0,6900.0,6250.0,5650.0,5250.0,5500.0,5750.0,6550.0,6200.0,6450.0,6100.0,5800.0,5650.0,5800.0,5950.0,5800.0,5400.0,6800.0,9200.0,8100.0,8350.0,8600.0,8200.0,7800.0,7550.0,7700.0,7900.0,7400.0,6850.0,7100.0,7350.0,7600.0,7900.0,8100.0,7750.0,7450.0,7300.0,7550.0,7750.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[52000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,38000.0,36000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[9040.0,6210.0,3980.0,3620.0,3460.0,3670.0,4210.0,3890.0,3560.0,3420.0,3610.0,5480.0,3210.0,2980.0,5190.0,4560.0,3920.0,4030.0,4510.0,4120.0,3540.0,3470.0,3310.0,3780.0,3280.0,3070.0,3530.0,3720.0,3960.0,4210.0,4680.0,4350.0,4180.0,3870.0,3660.0,4020.0,3420.0,3190.0,3610.0,3840.0,4080.0,4310.0,4790.0,4480.0,4210.0,4050.0,5720.0,6310.0,3720.0,3530.0,5240.0,5910.0,6180.0,6370.0,6990.0,6520.0,5810.0,5330.0,4980.0,5420.0,4340.0,3980.0,6830.0,7090.0,6510.0,6220.0,6740.0,6190.0,5680.0,5410.0,5180.0,5630.0,4090.0,3880.0,6520.0,5230.0,4640.0,4820.0,5140.0,4720.0,4830.0,6310.0,6720.0,5170.0,3810.0,3520.0,3920.0,4110.0,4380.0,4670.0,5210.0,4810.0,4390.0,4170.0,5490.0,4630.0,3620.0,3410.0,4230.0,4590.0,6120.0,5740.0,5230.0,4820.0,4410.0,4180.0,4390.0,4860.0,3510.0,3320.0,3730.0,3910.0,4240.0,4510.0,5030.0,4680.0,4410.0,4120.0,4250.0,4640.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[8500.0,4800.0,4000.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2800.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,10000.0,5600.0,4200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2700.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4800.0,3300.0,3000.0,3000.0,2950.0,2850.0,2750.0,2700.0,2950.0,3000.0,2950.0,2750.0,2900.0,2750.0,2800.0,2800.0,2750.0,2650.0,2550.0,2500.0,2750.0,2800.0,2750.0,2550.0,2800.0,2650.0,2700.0,2650.0,2650.0,2550.0,2450.0,2400.0,2650.0,2700.0,2650.0,2450.0,2700.0,2550.0,2600.0,2550.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2350.0,2600.0,2750.0,2900.0,2550.0,2600.0,2500.0,2750.0,2650.0,2550.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2450.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2300.0,2300.0,2250.0,2100.0,3900.0,2600.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,2150.0,2150.0,2100.0,1950.0,2100.0,1950.0,2000.0,1950.0,1950.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1950.0,1950.0,1900.0,1750.0,2000.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1850.0,1850.0,1800.0,1650.0,1900.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1750.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1750.0,1750.0,1700.0,1550.0]}},{"title":"Saif Ali Khan","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Saif Ali Khan\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[166477,143169,156030,159704,151079,165699,212068,174485,182243,166499,187415,421218,216250,207130,160887,150825,147535,178975,193131,190904,146566,179268,144570,264263,203069,173080,194513,188030,186516,193435,234413,257413,165506,208541,573519,680096,394221,194721,196179,185752,171216,195724,165792,215585,181068,204198,195145,230794,318192,281127,224652,328075,324731,301166,261565,366535,214692,174293,163463,231191,267862,260149,219528,185618,200721,192903,225681,244074,204930,182780,173951,253227,233481,165719,130476,179748,136314,137776,190113,237922,172745,223665,126578,116370,139710,171727,215164,159893,185977,306490,176658,224165,184912,161447,179358,311154,228761,136304,211961,129901,143354,128558,135224,141544,180121,184397,156632,137129,664668,128680,134339,125295,96877,90557,113146,96814,82549,100615,81085,82459],"flat_reference_value":16756.07967894742,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[105000.0,98000.0,102000.0,97000.0,103000.0,110000.0,108000.0,135000.0,105000.0,112000.0,125000.0,360000.0,195000.0,160000.0,145000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,140000.0,180000.0,170000.0,200000.0,155000.0,165000.0,210000.0,160000.0,145000.0,140000.0,145000.0,160000.0,390000.0,300000.0,210000.0,185000.0,175000.0,180000.0,175000.0,160000.0,155000.0,150000.0,160000.0,165000.0,195000.0,420000.0,260000.0,220000.0,225000.0,210000.0,490000.0,270000.0,190000.0,185000.0,180000.0,195000.0,185000.0,230000.0,190000.0,185000.0,190000.0,200000.0,370000.0,320000.0,220000.0,185000.0,175000.0,180000.0,185000.0,245000.0,230000.0,190000.0,235000.0,215000.0,195000.0,175000.0,180000.0,175000.0,180000.0,185000.0,190000.0,250000.0,340000.0,310000.0,210000.0,205000.0,200000.0,185000.0,190000.0,180000.0,205000.0,410000.0,285000.0,255000.0,195000.0,190000.0,185000.0,200000.0,215000.0,185000.0,190000.0,180000.0,185000.0,190000.0,195000.0,270000.0,310000.0,260000.0,200000.0,215000.0,2400000.0,550000.0,310000.0,265000.0,245000.0,230000.0,235000.0,300000.0,230000.0,220000.0,215000.0,225000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[148000.0,139000.0,145000.0,142000.0,150000.0,158000.0,165000.0,162000.0,154000.0,168000.0,172000.0,565000.0,285000.0,245000.0,178000.0,155000.0,152000.0,148000.0,162000.0,175000.0,160000.0,195000.0,158000.0,182000.0,215000.0,165000.0,160000.0,158000.0,168000.0,175000.0,435000.0,310000.0,195000.0,230000.0,265000.0,410000.0,240000.0,185000.0,178000.0,172000.0,175000.0,170000.0,195000.0,365000.0,210000.0,225000.0,185000.0,192000.0,465000.0,320000.0,245000.0,235000.0,225000.0,295000.0,315000.0,340000.0,290000.0,215000.0,205000.0,265000.0,485000.0,330000.0,215000.0,190000.0,185000.0,180000.0,195000.0,210000.0,265000.0,195000.0,235000.0,190000.0,185000.0,165000.0,160000.0,158000.0,162000.0,155000.0,165000.0,180000.0,245000.0,355000.0,195000.0,175000.0,170000.0,155000.0,158000.0,152000.0,210000.0,625000.0,245000.0,185000.0,172000.0,168000.0,165000.0,175000.0,168000.0,150000.0,155000.0,145000.0,148000.0,142000.0,155000.0,165000.0,325000.0,275000.0,185000.0,165000.0,2150000.0,460000.0,295000.0,265000.0,185000.0,160000.0,155000.0,162000.0,150000.0,158000.0,148000.0,155000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[221000.0,194000.0,182000.0,174000.0,186000.0,191000.0,215000.0,224000.0,198000.0,207000.0,218000.0,678000.0,425000.0,262000.0,212000.0,196000.0,183000.0,188000.0,192000.0,186000.0,194000.0,235000.0,204000.0,242000.0,284000.0,211000.0,198000.0,203000.0,225000.0,252000.0,846000.0,618000.0,339000.0,378000.0,312000.0,294000.0,263000.0,231000.0,219000.0,212000.0,224000.0,241000.0,289000.0,608000.0,376000.0,315000.0,258000.0,283000.0,718000.0,482000.0,312000.0,279000.0,254000.0,388000.0,419000.0,342000.0,261000.0,249000.0,238000.0,264000.0,652000.0,521000.0,318000.0,261000.0,239000.0,228000.0,243000.0,308000.0,341000.0,268000.0,319000.0,258000.0,242000.0,229000.0,218000.0,211000.0,214000.0,219000.0,208000.0,238000.0,358000.0,476000.0,281000.0,239000.0,228000.0,212000.0,201000.0,209000.0,288000.0,816000.0,418000.0,259000.0,238000.0,229000.0,218000.0,211000.0,282000.0,221000.0,198000.0,189000.0,194000.0,206000.0,212000.0,242000.0,458000.0,379000.0,241000.0,222000.0,212000.0,201000.0,194000.0,188000.0,184000.0,181000.0,186000.0,189000.0,183000.0,188000.0,184000.0,193000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[190000.0,175000.0,170000.0,165000.0,160000.0,155000.0,160000.0,175000.0,165000.0,170000.0,180000.0,420000.0,230000.0,220000.0,175000.0,160000.0,150000.0,145000.0,150000.0,150000.0,145000.0,165000.0,150000.0,160000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,135000.0,135000.0,140000.0,260000.0,230000.0,180000.0,190000.0,160000.0,175000.0,150000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,120000.0,120000.0,125000.0,150000.0,125000.0,135000.0,125000.0,130000.0,210000.0,160000.0,145000.0,180000.0,165000.0,150000.0,140000.0,150000.0,130000.0,125000.0,125000.0,130000.0,200000.0,190000.0,135000.0,125000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,120000.0,125000.0,115000.0,125000.0,115000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,110000.0,150000.0,145000.0,110000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,120000.0,190000.0,115000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,100000.0,95000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,100000.0,150000.0,130000.0,100000.0,100000.0,1300000.0,220000.0,160000.0,150000.0,115000.0,100000.0,95000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,90000.0,95000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[360000.0,340000.0,330000.0,320000.0,320000.0,330000.0,350000.0,370000.0,350000.0,380000.0,360000.0,800000.0,450000.0,400000.0,350000.0,330000.0,330000.0,340000.0,350000.0,370000.0,350000.0,380000.0,340000.0,370000.0,380000.0,340000.0,330000.0,330000.0,350000.0,380000.0,700000.0,500000.0,400000.0,380000.0,380000.0,550000.0,420000.0,360000.0,340000.0,330000.0,340000.0,340000.0,350000.0,450000.0,380000.0,380000.0,360000.0,380000.0,650000.0,450000.0,400000.0,450000.0,450000.0,480000.0,430000.0,600000.0,450000.0,400000.0,380000.0,380000.0,600000.0,550000.0,380000.0,350000.0,360000.0,340000.0,350000.0,380000.0,400000.0,330000.0,330000.0,320000.0,310000.0,290000.0,280000.0,280000.0,280000.0,270000.0,280000.0,300000.0,380000.0,320000.0,280000.0,280000.0,290000.0,260000.0,260000.0,260000.0,280000.0,500000.0,300000.0,290000.0,270000.0,260000.0,260000.0,270000.0,260000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,270000.0,400000.0,350000.0,280000.0,300000.0,3200000.0,550000.0,350000.0,350000.0,300000.0,290000.0,290000.0,290000.0,270000.0,270000.0,260000.0,270000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[55000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,52000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,55000.0,105000.0,118000.0,96000.0,72000.0,56000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,54000.0,55000.0,66000.0,56000.0,62000.0,70000.0,56000.0,53000.0,55000.0,55000.0,57000.0,170000.0,115000.0,82000.0,88000.0,72000.0,86000.0,70000.0,61000.0,58000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,66000.0,140000.0,86000.0,80000.0,65000.0,80000.0,150000.0,92000.0,66000.0,50000.0,50000.0,92000.0,82000.0,66000.0,61000.0,59000.0,58000.0,63000.0,175000.0,110000.0,66000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,76000.0,65000.0,76000.0,63000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,110000.0,86000.0,70000.0,68000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,86000.0,185000.0,105000.0,70000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,65000.0,65000.0,70000.0,76000.0,115000.0,85000.0,72000.0,70000.0,560000.0,165000.0,85000.0,96000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,66000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[31200.0,27800.0,30500.0,28400.0,29600.0,26900.0,30400.0,31800.0,33500.0,37200.0,41500.0,182000.0,112000.0,86000.0,52000.0,43000.0,38000.0,36500.0,39000.0,40500.0,44200.0,68500.0,46000.0,48500.0,61000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,58000.0,138000.0,108000.0,56000.0,67000.0,52000.0,76000.0,54000.0,49000.0,50500.0,52000.0,51000.0,54000.0,62000.0,126000.0,72000.0,76000.0,56000.0,67000.0,148000.0,82000.0,68000.0,65000.0,58000.0,88000.0,71000.0,60000.0,57000.0,55000.0,56000.0,58000.0,112000.0,96000.0,62000.0,58000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50500.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,46000.0,44000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,52000.0,55000.0,58000.0,96000.0,71000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,55000.0,112000.0,66000.0,50000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,50000.0,56000.0,92000.0,66000.0,46000.0,44000.0,1420000.0,285000.0,95000.0,108000.0,62000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,52000.0,55000.0,50000.0,52000.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[78000.0,74000.0,80000.0,76000.0,82000.0,88000.0,84000.0,86000.0,92000.0,98000.0,104000.0,380000.0,190000.0,240000.0,130000.0,105000.0,100000.0,96000.0,102000.0,108000.0,104000.0,145000.0,120000.0,128000.0,118000.0,112000.0,118000.0,120000.0,126000.0,650000.0,430000.0,260000.0,195000.0,265000.0,185000.0,172000.0,168000.0,158000.0,156000.0,150000.0,158000.0,162000.0,168000.0,470000.0,235000.0,245000.0,185000.0,178000.0,470000.0,310000.0,200000.0,185000.0,178000.0,186000.0,235000.0,190000.0,182000.0,188000.0,194000.0,190000.0,410000.0,260000.0,196000.0,188000.0,182000.0,180000.0,186000.0,192000.0,275000.0,210000.0,245000.0,196000.0,196000.0,188000.0,198000.0,192000.0,198000.0,202000.0,204000.0,210000.0,415000.0,315000.0,222000.0,212000.0,212000.0,214000.0,220000.0,214000.0,220000.0,560000.0,315000.0,242000.0,236000.0,245000.0,250000.0,246000.0,246000.0,240000.0,248000.0,242000.0,250000.0,246000.0,310000.0,262000.0,520000.0,335000.0,272000.0,266000.0,1300000.0,520000.0,320000.0,288000.0,292000.0,286000.0,296000.0,302000.0,310000.0,318000.0,328000.0,322000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[72000.0,68000.0,70000.0,74000.0,78000.0,82000.0,85000.0,80000.0,76000.0,72000.0,70000.0,74000.0,85000.0,130000.0,100000.0,88000.0,88000.0,90000.0,95000.0,92000.0,98000.0,120000.0,95000.0,95000.0,140000.0,110000.0,105000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,480000.0,320000.0,180000.0,180000.0,130000.0,120000.0,140000.0,125000.0,120000.0,120000.0,125000.0,130000.0,170000.0,380000.0,220000.0,180000.0,140000.0,130000.0,420000.0,260000.0,170000.0,150000.0,145000.0,145000.0,150000.0,155000.0,150000.0,145000.0,145000.0,150000.0,400000.0,240000.0,180000.0,160000.0,155000.0,155000.0,160000.0,170000.0,250000.0,190000.0,165000.0,165000.0,175000.0,165000.0,165000.0,165000.0,175000.0,185000.0,190000.0,200000.0,320000.0,420000.0,220000.0,190000.0,190000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,185000.0,185000.0,190000.0,195000.0,190000.0,190000.0,190000.0,200000.0,210000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,210000.0,220000.0,230000.0,250000.0,430000.0,300000.0,230000.0,220000.0,3800000.0,700000.0,350000.0,450000.0,260000.0,230000.0,220000.0,220000.0,210000.0,210000.0,210000.0,210000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,45000.0,52000.0,42000.0,115000.0,95000.0,68000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,34000.0,58000.0,72000.0,45000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,58000.0,235000.0,145000.0,68000.0,85000.0,55000.0,72000.0,68000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,165000.0,95000.0,52000.0,48000.0,78000.0,310000.0,175000.0,130000.0,85000.0,62000.0,78000.0,95000.0,58000.0,54000.0,56000.0,72000.0,68000.0,380000.0,210000.0,135000.0,115000.0,60000.0,56000.0,55000.0,58000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,85000.0,78000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,54000.0,55000.0,70000.0,185000.0,125000.0,70000.0,62000.0,58000.0,125000.0,95000.0,60000.0,115000.0,340000.0,165000.0,78000.0,62000.0,60000.0,65000.0,68000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,92000.0,78000.0,65000.0,62000.0,75000.0,230000.0,155000.0,70000.0,82000.0,1200000.0,380000.0,180000.0,170000.0,115000.0,85000.0,72000.0,68000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[44000.0,47000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,44000.0,47000.0,78000.0,360000.0,47000.0,50000.0,51000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,62000.0,50000.0,51000.0,43000.0,51000.0,54000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,49000.0,47000.0,47000.0,50000.0,55000.0,55000.0,47000.0,57000.0,60000.0,61000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,56000.0,61000.0,70000.0,82000.0,71000.0,75000.0,95000.0,85000.0,90000.0,210000.0,160000.0,110000.0,85000.0,90000.0,95000.0,120000.0,110000.0,150000.0,430000.0,95000.0,82000.0,78000.0,74000.0,74000.0,100000.0,86000.0,87000.0,74000.0,84000.0,89000.0,91000.0,89000.0,86000.0,82000.0,115000.0,77000.0,83000.0,90000.0,91000.0,77000.0,88000.0,94000.0,95000.0,94000.0,90000.0,120000.0,115000.0,100000.0,87000.0,95000.0,95000.0,85000.0,84000.0,95000.0,150000.0,100000.0,86000.0,82000.0,77000.0,90000.0,83000.0,90000.0,91000.0,77000.0,1400000.0,260000.0,170000.0,110000.0,320000.0,160000.0,95000.0,88000.0,90000.0,95000.0,90000.0,75000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[12400.0,15800.0,13600.0,13100.0,12800.0,13200.0,12900.0,14100.0,13700.0,15400.0,16800.0,14900.0,13700.0,16900.0,15400.0,14800.0,14100.0,14600.0,16200.0,31500.0,22400.0,16100.0,17300.0,15700.0,14900.0,18600.0,39500.0,25800.0,21000.0,16300.0,15800.0,16900.0,17400.0,20100.0,34200.0,18900.0,17300.0,46000.0,24200.0,18100.0,16700.0,19800.0,16300.0,23700.0,21500.0,19400.0,24100.0,20200.0,19100.0,19700.0,30500.0,25800.0,20900.0,18700.0,18100.0,23900.0,19600.0,21300.0,27800.0,55000.0,30500.0,22100.0,31600.0,21400.0,19800.0,25800.0,20600.0,19700.0,20500.0,21900.0,23300.0,21800.0,21400.0,27600.0,23100.0,20900.0,20300.0,24000.0,42500.0,29800.0,22400.0,23800.0,27900.0,23100.0,22800.0,26900.0,30400.0,23100.0,21700.0,22600.0,22000.0,23400.0,79000.0,42500.0,24800.0,25600.0,24700.0,31500.0,25100.0,23300.0,22700.0,24600.0,23500.0,31800.0,25400.0,34200.0,27900.0,25800.0,25400.0,35800.0,31600.0,27900.0,26300.0,38500.0,26900.0,25200.0,26100.0,29300.0,29800.0,27500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[330000.0,280000.0,270000.0,260000.0,250000.0,250000.0,260000.0,250000.0,240000.0,250000.0,260000.0,330000.0,360000.0,300000.0,290000.0,280000.0,270000.0,270000.0,270000.0,280000.0,270000.0,280000.0,290000.0,300000.0,310000.0,290000.0,300000.0,420000.0,340000.0,300000.0,290000.0,300000.0,290000.0,300000.0,320000.0,310000.0,300000.0,280000.0,280000.0,270000.0,270000.0,260000.0,260000.0,280000.0,270000.0,270000.0,280000.0,320000.0,360000.0,300000.0,280000.0,260000.0,240000.0,270000.0,250000.0,240000.0,240000.0,230000.0,240000.0,250000.0,290000.0,270000.0,250000.0,240000.0,230000.0,230000.0,230000.0,230000.0,220000.0,220000.0,230000.0,240000.0,230000.0,220000.0,220000.0,210000.0,210000.0,200000.0,200000.0,220000.0,290000.0,250000.0,220000.0,220000.0,230000.0,210000.0,210000.0,200000.0,200000.0,230000.0,200000.0,190000.0,200000.0,190000.0,190000.0,200000.0,200000.0,190000.0,190000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,210000.0,190000.0,180000.0,190000.0,650000.0,300000.0,230000.0,210000.0,200000.0,190000.0,190000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,190000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[24500.0,22500.0,23500.0,22000.0,21500.0,23000.0,22500.0,54000.0,31000.0,73000.0,122000.0,104000.0,24000.0,47000.0,33000.0,24000.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,29000.0,23500.0,23000.0,24000.0,25500.0,23500.0,24500.0,80000.0,41000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26500.0,27500.0,26500.0,28000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24500.0,27000.0,27000.0,33000.0,67000.0,41000.0,30000.0,28500.0,27000.0,28000.0,30500.0,33000.0,24000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,22000.0,20500.0,19500.0,19000.0,20000.0,22500.0,22000.0,23000.0,56000.0,34000.0,27500.0,25500.0,26500.0,75000.0,67000.0,33000.0,26000.0,28000.0,132000.0,89000.0,42000.0,30000.0,28500.0,28000.0,28500.0,29500.0,83000.0,162000.0,77000.0,35000.0,158000.0,84000.0,39000.0,30500.0,29500.0,30000.0,29000.0,30500.0,31500.0,34500.0,36500.0,122000.0,27500.0,27500.0,248000.0,152000.0,52000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,38000.0,31000.0,30500.0,35000.0,33500.0,34000.0,260000.0,610000.0,195000.0,92000.0,70000.0,72000.0,145000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[30100.0,27800.0,29400.0,31900.0,30300.0,28600.0,31200.0,29800.0,32600.0,35400.0,39200.0,61200.0,46700.0,52300.0,33700.0,30200.0,31100.0,32500.0,31700.0,33100.0,34800.0,44100.0,39800.0,36500.0,48700.0,39700.0,33700.0,32900.0,35100.0,48200.0,118000.0,92700.0,60300.0,41100.0,38600.0,37400.0,42100.0,37400.0,35200.0,34800.0,36200.0,39700.0,53600.0,109000.0,69400.0,45100.0,41400.0,39000.0,68300.0,52800.0,39700.0,34500.0,33100.0,35800.0,37100.0,39600.0,40200.0,37900.0,36100.0,34900.0,34200.0,32900.0,31500.0,30600.0,29800.0,31100.0,32800.0,39700.0,34100.0,32900.0,45100.0,35800.0,34900.0,33100.0,31600.0,30400.0,31200.0,32500.0,31900.0,34200.0,51800.0,47200.0,35600.0,33800.0,34100.0,32200.0,30900.0,30200.0,32600.0,81900.0,56200.0,37400.0,34700.0,33800.0,32900.0,31500.0,31800.0,30600.0,29400.0,28700.0,29600.0,31200.0,30500.0,31900.0,55700.0,84600.0,43900.0,37200.0,480000.0,124000.0,62200.0,48300.0,42600.0,39400.0,38100.0,40200.0,41700.0,38900.0,37100.0,36200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[6200.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,6200.0,6000.0,6100.0,6300.0,6400.0,6200.0,6000.0,6500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6400.0,6600.0,6500.0,6700.0,6600.0,6800.0,6900.0,6700.0,7000.0,7000.0,6900.0,7200.0,7300.0,8500.0,9500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7500.0,7800.0,7600.0,7400.0,7300.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7000.0,7600.0,8800.0,7600.0,7300.0,7200.0,7100.0,10500.0,8000.0,7800.0,7500.0,7600.0,7400.0,7300.0,7200.0,7300.0,7400.0,7600.0,7500.0,7600.0,7400.0,7300.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7300.0,7400.0,7500.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7900.0,7800.0,7700.0,7800.0,7900.0,8000.0,8200.0,9500.0,9800.0,8600.0,8400.0,8600.0,8500.0,8400.0,8300.0,8500.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8800.0,9000.0,9200.0,9800.0,9000.0,8800.0,8700.0,8600.0,8800.0,9000.0,9100.0,9200.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9300.0,45000.0,16000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10200.0,10000.0,10300.0,10100.0,10000.0,9800.0,9600.0]}},{"title":"List of Community episodes","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"List of Community episodes\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[43767,35437,36979,33012,34053,34133,35983,36636,33985,31968,31693,33242,36619,29809,30071,28281,24350,22866,26708,27391,26818,27585,22382,23941,27716,23508,25791,23833,30167,23324,22948,25266,21971,17584,17798,20075,21888,18390,19553,18802,20480,19563,22779,23728,19071,16787,17919,18560,18769,15964,21956,215106,176713,107029,87275,65633,51591,46006,45550,50310,52658,42129,44536,40391,37992,33459,37085,34291,29807,26544,23533,23380,28612,24660,27825,29159,25984,25018,27752,28929,27114,33876,27088,25657,32573,27408,28544,28299,27262,23692,25237,23986,20711,18351,18479,18801,21858,20587,24760,16958,12539,11470,12116,12224,12929,11803,12891,12706,13687,13276,14716,11551,11566,12068,15848,16884,14133,13510,13018,12782],"flat_reference_value":16928.205114922446,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,37000.0,35000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,39000.0,190000.0,165000.0,130000.0,115000.0,100000.0,90000.0,88000.0,81000.0,88000.0,85000.0,74000.0,75000.0,69000.0,68000.0,63000.0,64000.0,65000.0,62000.0,65000.0,61000.0,69000.0,65000.0,57000.0,59000.0,55000.0,56000.0,52000.0,53000.0,53000.0,57000.0,76000.0,59000.0,60000.0,56000.0,50000.0,51000.0,48000.0,49000.0,46000.0,47000.0,48000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,52000.0,49000.0,44000.0,47000.0,45000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,40000.0,46000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,44000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[68400.0,61200.0,62500.0,58900.0,59400.0,61800.0,64100.0,61500.0,55200.0,54800.0,53600.0,58300.0,60900.0,52400.0,55700.0,53100.0,54600.0,56200.0,58800.0,56900.0,50400.0,49800.0,49100.0,53500.0,56400.0,48700.0,52100.0,49600.0,50300.0,52800.0,55900.0,54100.0,48200.0,47500.0,46900.0,51200.0,54300.0,46800.0,49900.0,47400.0,48600.0,50500.0,53200.0,51800.0,46100.0,45700.0,45900.0,50400.0,52800.0,47900.0,64500.0,218000.0,242000.0,184000.0,146000.0,121000.0,98500.0,92400.0,88700.0,94200.0,97600.0,82300.0,81500.0,75400.0,73800.0,71900.0,73500.0,70800.0,63400.0,62100.0,60500.0,65800.0,68900.0,58400.0,60200.0,57600.0,58100.0,59400.0,61800.0,59700.0,61200.0,84500.0,62300.0,61900.0,64200.0,54600.0,57800.0,55100.0,54300.0,56700.0,58900.0,56200.0,49800.0,48900.0,48200.0,51600.0,53900.0,48500.0,58400.0,46200.0,38900.0,37800.0,39400.0,38100.0,34600.0,34200.0,33800.0,36900.0,38500.0,33400.0,35600.0,33900.0,34200.0,35100.0,36800.0,35700.0,31900.0,31500.0,31200.0,34100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[42100.0,39500.0,38200.0,36700.0,35400.0,37100.0,38900.0,37800.0,36100.0,37400.0,38200.0,41500.0,43200.0,37900.0,38500.0,35100.0,33800.0,36200.0,37400.0,36100.0,34500.0,36800.0,35700.0,38600.0,40100.0,34800.0,35600.0,33900.0,32100.0,33400.0,35800.0,34200.0,32500.0,33700.0,34900.0,38100.0,39400.0,33600.0,35200.0,33100.0,31800.0,33500.0,35400.0,34200.0,35900.0,36700.0,35100.0,39800.0,41200.0,36800.0,51400.0,284000.0,312000.0,188000.0,132000.0,104000.0,84500.0,76200.0,68400.0,71800.0,74500.0,63200.0,61800.0,57900.0,54200.0,55600.0,58300.0,56100.0,52400.0,53900.0,51800.0,56200.0,58700.0,50400.0,51900.0,48200.0,46500.0,49100.0,51600.0,50200.0,66800.0,94700.0,63500.0,58200.0,60100.0,51400.0,52900.0,49600.0,47300.0,48800.0,50700.0,49200.0,46500.0,48100.0,47200.0,51500.0,52800.0,46400.0,54100.0,47800.0,43500.0,44900.0,46800.0,45100.0,42600.0,43900.0,43100.0,46700.0,48200.0,41800.0,42900.0,40500.0,39100.0,41000.0,42800.0,41500.0,39800.0,41200.0,40400.0,43600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[72000.0,64000.0,63000.0,58000.0,57000.0,56000.0,57000.0,55000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,53000.0,56000.0,49000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,44000.0,47000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,42000.0,115000.0,125000.0,105000.0,92000.0,82000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,70000.0,72000.0,63000.0,63000.0,59000.0,57000.0,55000.0,56000.0,54000.0,50000.0,50000.0,49000.0,51000.0,54000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,52000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[155000.0,140000.0,135000.0,125000.0,120000.0,120000.0,125000.0,120000.0,110000.0,108000.0,105000.0,112000.0,118000.0,100000.0,102000.0,98000.0,95000.0,96000.0,100000.0,98000.0,90000.0,88000.0,86000.0,92000.0,98000.0,86000.0,88000.0,84000.0,82000.0,82000.0,86000.0,85000.0,78000.0,77000.0,76000.0,82000.0,88000.0,78000.0,80000.0,78000.0,78000.0,78000.0,80000.0,80000.0,75000.0,75000.0,76000.0,82000.0,88000.0,82000.0,110000.0,520000.0,500000.0,400000.0,350000.0,300000.0,250000.0,230000.0,215000.0,225000.0,235000.0,200000.0,195000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,160000.0,155000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,135000.0,140000.0,120000.0,120000.0,112000.0,108000.0,102000.0,102000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,95000.0,96000.0,100000.0,88000.0,88000.0,84000.0,80000.0,76000.0,76000.0,74000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0,74000.0,66000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,57000.0,54000.0,53000.0,52000.0,55000.0,57000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[15500.0,13800.0,14900.0,14200.0,16300.0,13900.0,14800.0,14400.0,17200.0,15600.0,14700.0,16800.0,15200.0,13700.0,14600.0,14100.0,15700.0,17400.0,17800.0,15700.0,15400.0,14500.0,14000.0,16200.0,15100.0,13600.0,14700.0,14800.0,19800.0,15600.0,15100.0,14700.0,15700.0,14600.0,14100.0,15700.0,14800.0,13300.0,14100.0,13600.0,14600.0,13600.0,14200.0,13700.0,16700.0,14100.0,13700.0,15700.0,15600.0,16000.0,22500.0,124000.0,79000.0,47000.0,37500.0,30000.0,26500.0,23000.0,21000.0,23000.0,20200.0,18100.0,17600.0,16600.0,16100.0,15200.0,14700.0,14700.0,14600.0,14300.0,15000.0,16400.0,15800.0,15200.0,17800.0,14700.0,15600.0,14700.0,14500.0,14100.0,27500.0,37500.0,22500.0,18900.0,17900.0,16400.0,17500.0,16700.0,16800.0,16200.0,15700.0,15200.0,15200.0,15100.0,15200.0,16700.0,17400.0,14700.0,15200.0,15100.0,16400.0,15100.0,15300.0,14700.0,15100.0,15100.0,15200.0,16800.0,15300.0,14100.0,15800.0,15200.0,15800.0,16900.0,18400.0,17700.0,16700.0,16200.0,15700.0,17200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[13300.0,11800.0,11500.0,10200.0,9900.0,8200.0,7800.0,8100.0,10200.0,10800.0,11100.0,10500.0,12200.0,10800.0,10500.0,9200.0,8900.0,7600.0,7100.0,7400.0,9300.0,9900.0,10200.0,9600.0,11200.0,10000.0,9700.0,8600.0,8300.0,7000.0,6700.0,6900.0,8600.0,9200.0,9400.0,8900.0,10400.0,9200.0,9000.0,8000.0,7800.0,6500.0,6200.0,6400.0,8000.0,8500.0,8800.0,8300.0,9900.0,9100.0,16800.0,34200.0,38900.0,24500.0,18300.0,16900.0,15800.0,16200.0,17100.0,16400.0,15200.0,13900.0,14200.0,12800.0,12400.0,10500.0,9900.0,10200.0,12600.0,13100.0,13600.0,12900.0,12400.0,11200.0,11400.0,10300.0,10000.0,8600.0,8200.0,8600.0,17800.0,26100.0,16800.0,13900.0,12800.0,11400.0,11800.0,10500.0,10100.0,8800.0,8400.0,8700.0,10400.0,11000.0,11400.0,10800.0,11500.0,10300.0,10600.0,9400.0,9100.0,7800.0,7400.0,7700.0,9300.0,9900.0,10200.0,9700.0,10600.0,9500.0,9800.0,8700.0,8400.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,8600.0,9100.0,9400.0,8900.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10300.0,11200.0,9800.0,9500.0,10100.0,10600.0,10200.0,11600.0,10500.0,9500.0,9200.0,8900.0,9100.0,9600.0,8800.0,8500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9200.0,10400.0,9500.0,8800.0,8500.0,8200.0,9600.0,9100.0,8300.0,8100.0,8600.0,9100.0,8900.0,10100.0,9300.0,8900.0,8600.0,8400.0,8600.0,9400.0,9200.0,8400.0,8900.0,9400.0,9100.0,10300.0,9600.0,9300.0,11800.0,65000.0,54000.0,35000.0,27000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22500.0,21500.0,23000.0,22000.0,20500.0,20000.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,19500.0,19000.0,20500.0,21500.0,20500.0,22500.0,21500.0,20500.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,21500.0,19500.0,19500.0,47000.0,32000.0,25500.0,23500.0,21500.0,20000.0,24500.0,23000.0,22500.0,21000.0,19500.0,19000.0,20500.0,21000.0,20500.0,22000.0,24000.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,23000.0,24500.0,22000.0,21500.0,23000.0,24000.0,23500.0,25500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25500.0,26000.0,27500.0,25500.0,25000.0,26500.0,28000.0,27500.0,30000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[7200.0,6500.0,6800.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5700.0,6300.0,6100.0,6200.0,6600.0,6400.0,5900.0,6100.0,5700.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,5100.0,5700.0,5500.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,5200.0,5400.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,5100.0,4700.0,4900.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,6500.0,38000.0,24000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,11000.0,9500.0,8800.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,7500.0,7800.0,8500.0,8200.0,8300.0,8800.0,8500.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7200.0,7000.0,7200.0,9000.0,38000.0,18000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,9500.0,8500.0,8200.0,8400.0,9000.0,8800.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8800.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8500.0,8300.0,8400.0,8800.0,8200.0,7800.0,9500.0,11000.0,16000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[5450.0,4700.0,5050.0,4800.0,5100.0,4950.0,4850.0,4600.0,6600.0,5600.0,4900.0,5450.0,4750.0,4250.0,4500.0,4800.0,4550.0,4450.0,4350.0,4150.0,5800.0,5000.0,4450.0,4900.0,4450.0,3950.0,4150.0,4100.0,6600.0,5900.0,4200.0,4900.0,4550.0,4250.0,4150.0,4600.0,4350.0,3900.0,4050.0,5050.0,4750.0,4050.0,5250.0,3850.0,5600.0,4700.0,4050.0,4450.0,4750.0,4250.0,6400.0,6750.0,5900.0,4500.0,6200.0,5400.0,4950.0,4600.0,4450.0,5100.0,5600.0,4900.0,4800.0,4250.0,4450.0,4350.0,5100.0,4100.0,5100.0,4500.0,4350.0,4800.0,4550.0,4050.0,5200.0,4150.0,4350.0,4250.0,4200.0,4000.0,5800.0,10200.0,6400.0,5200.0,4100.0,4700.0,3900.0,3750.0,3950.0,3800.0,3750.0,3600.0,4300.0,4600.0,3850.0,4250.0,4200.0,5650.0,5800.0,5750.0,4800.0,3950.0,3900.0,3800.0,5500.0,4050.0,3950.0,4350.0,5000.0,6400.0,5200.0,4300.0,3700.0,3650.0,3600.0,3400.0,3950.0,3750.0,3650.0,4050.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[21000.0,20200.0,21800.0,22400.0,23800.0,27500.0,38500.0,35200.0,28600.0,30400.0,27200.0,33800.0,24800.0,23700.0,24300.0,23600.0,23100.0,24900.0,26300.0,25800.0,24000.0,25800.0,23400.0,27600.0,22600.0,21700.0,22200.0,21400.0,20900.0,22500.0,23400.0,22900.0,21300.0,22900.0,20800.0,24800.0,20700.0,19900.0,20400.0,19800.0,19300.0,20800.0,21700.0,21200.0,19900.0,21500.0,19300.0,23500.0,19100.0,19600.0,27200.0,47500.0,40200.0,28400.0,30600.0,24100.0,22400.0,24600.0,21700.0,27200.0,20800.0,19900.0,20500.0,19700.0,19200.0,20900.0,22300.0,21700.0,20100.0,22000.0,19600.0,24500.0,18900.0,18100.0,18700.0,18000.0,17600.0,19100.0,20000.0,19500.0,29800.0,24100.0,20100.0,23500.0,18200.0,17500.0,18100.0,17400.0,17000.0,18600.0,19400.0,18900.0,17700.0,19500.0,17400.0,21900.0,17700.0,17000.0,17600.0,16900.0,16500.0,25100.0,20500.0,18700.0,18300.0,20000.0,17600.0,22300.0,19100.0,18400.0,19000.0,18300.0,19300.0,27400.0,22800.0,20600.0,22000.0,21500.0,19700.0,24900.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[51000.0,54000.0,190000.0,108000.0,68000.0,49000.0,45000.0,47000.0,52000.0,57000.0,55000.0,46000.0,47000.0,65000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,80000.0,77000.0,53000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,72000.0,60000.0,48000.0,44000.0,63000.0,52000.0,46000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,51000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,46000.0,44000.0,72000.0,56000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,54000.0,56000.0,49000.0,43000.0,42000.0,46000.0,44000.0,55000.0,47000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,75000.0,57000.0,47000.0,45000.0,50000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,48000.0,44000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,49000.0,55000.0,57000.0,50000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,40000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,21000.0,20000.0,26000.0,30000.0,25000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,22000.0,19000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[52430.0,46280.0,43160.0,40920.0,39780.0,43720.0,39640.0,38110.0,42560.0,46830.0,54970.0,61840.0,51280.0,44910.0,41730.0,39280.0,36840.0,40670.0,36910.0,35120.0,39240.0,43080.0,49720.0,56410.0,46970.0,41180.0,37840.0,35460.0,33680.0,36890.0,33120.0,31450.0,35210.0,39270.0,44820.0,51780.0,43160.0,37420.0,34190.0,32050.0,31280.0,33940.0,31010.0,29360.0,32470.0,35140.0,40230.0,45380.0,38720.0,35390.0,48260.0,55810.0,46390.0,41140.0,37210.0,35260.0,39570.0,44480.0,51590.0,60430.0,81690.0,94230.0,77650.0,60310.0,51820.0,49660.0,45970.0,43880.0,49260.0,55120.0,64830.0,76210.0,67480.0,57860.0,50240.0,45380.0,42110.0,43970.0,40320.0,38940.0,43860.0,49120.0,57340.0,65610.0,56120.0,48370.0,44280.0,40850.0,45310.0,55130.0,45460.0,41980.0,46520.0,52340.0,62070.0,71480.0,60890.0,53460.0,48310.0,45740.0,61820.0,77850.0,62340.0,54980.0,61270.0,69840.0,80540.0,91820.0,83250.0,72140.0,64280.0,60130.0,77950.0,95410.0,84180.0,75260.0,82390.0,91850.0,104720.0,118360.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2680.0,2420.0,2510.0,2460.0,2520.0,2450.0,2380.0,2550.0,2740.0,2820.0,2600.0,2760.0,2540.0,2310.0,2470.0,2390.0,2480.0,2420.0,2350.0,2500.0,2630.0,2710.0,2490.0,2620.0,2390.0,2180.0,2310.0,2240.0,2370.0,2290.0,2210.0,2380.0,2510.0,2590.0,2410.0,2550.0,2440.0,2210.0,2350.0,2300.0,2390.0,2320.0,2250.0,2430.0,2570.0,2680.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2450.0,3600.0,9800.0,11200.0,8400.0,6900.0,6100.0,5900.0,6200.0,5600.0,6500.0,5700.0,5200.0,5500.0,5100.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,5300.0,5500.0,5100.0,5600.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,5100.0,4800.0,4900.0,5100.0,6500.0,6100.0,5200.0,5600.0,5100.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,5000.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,5000.0,5100.0,4800.0,5200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4900.0,5600.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,5200.0,5100.0,4800.0,5300.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5400.0,5700.0,5300.0,5800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1620.0,1710.0,1800.0,1710.0,1710.0,1620.0,1530.0,1620.0,1890.0,1980.0,1890.0,1800.0,1440.0,1520.0,1600.0,1520.0,1520.0,1440.0,1360.0,1440.0,1680.0,1760.0,1680.0,1600.0,1305.0,1378.0,1450.0,1378.0,1378.0,1305.0,1233.0,1305.0,1523.0,1595.0,1523.0,1450.0,1260.0,1330.0,1400.0,1330.0,1330.0,1260.0,1190.0,1260.0,1470.0,1540.0,1470.0,1400.0,1485.0,1568.0,1650.0,1568.0,1568.0,1485.0,1403.0,1485.0,1733.0,1815.0,1733.0,1650.0,1170.0,1235.0,1300.0,1235.0,1235.0,1170.0,1105.0,1170.0,1365.0,1430.0,1365.0,1300.0,1035.0,1093.0,1150.0,1093.0,1093.0,1035.0,978.0,1035.0,1208.0,1265.0,1208.0,1150.0,990.0,1045.0,1100.0,1045.0,1045.0,990.0,935.0,990.0,1155.0,1210.0,1155.0,1100.0,945.0,998.0,1050.0,998.0,998.0,945.0,893.0,945.0,1103.0,1155.0,1103.0,1050.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0]}},{"title":"Phish","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Phish\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[34526,34932,36043,28882,28073,42958,46324,32191,34205,42757,27924,31944,35400,27330,26643,26424,25923,26172,54227,46659,27406,21548,21173,26218,27823,22558,27496,24612,22750,23710,38448,50763,27538,32510,30974,36248,40373,25866,26466,27730,27285,54114,50231,33576,27405,28384,28296,38160,38493,29986,28573,44482,34750,28290,30336,31400,24469,25556,30986,25423,29145,25201,27967,26974,32553,25725,33507,49711,35012,42494,27026,56988,44414,27067,28528,36657,30826,35894,46158,44048,30445,25300,23842,26837,31263,26673,26930,33863,42597,30893,49995,43257,31728,33689,25612,43408,44112,33681,31109,66968,36735,42451,71221,53351,42292,37717,26450,35332,37451,39322,33817,44729,35099,36258,50862,32202,36751,25058,27871,32419],"flat_reference_value":16904.694326043253,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[59000.0,51000.0,53000.0,55000.0,57000.0,69000.0,76000.0,67000.0,58000.0,74000.0,59000.0,68000.0,61000.0,52000.0,53000.0,54000.0,56000.0,61000.0,98000.0,91000.0,60000.0,57000.0,56000.0,69000.0,61000.0,51000.0,52000.0,53000.0,55000.0,61000.0,73000.0,88000.0,59000.0,67000.0,57000.0,68000.0,61000.0,51000.0,53000.0,52000.0,55000.0,72000.0,74000.0,65000.0,62000.0,55000.0,58000.0,71000.0,64000.0,52000.0,58000.0,61000.0,55000.0,57000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,57000.0,52000.0,58000.0,55000.0,47000.0,49000.0,50000.0,53000.0,57000.0,71000.0,85000.0,70000.0,76000.0,58000.0,62000.0,57000.0,49000.0,51000.0,69000.0,53000.0,61000.0,75000.0,78000.0,59000.0,52000.0,50000.0,67000.0,59000.0,50000.0,51000.0,62000.0,51000.0,55000.0,79000.0,78000.0,59000.0,61000.0,50000.0,70000.0,61000.0,50000.0,55000.0,135000.0,68000.0,59000.0,76000.0,110000.0,63000.0,62000.0,51000.0,67000.0,60000.0,49000.0,51000.0,52000.0,53000.0,64000.0,78000.0,80000.0,62000.0,55000.0,51000.0,68000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[74200.0,53100.0,54800.0,52400.0,56900.0,76500.0,88400.0,73200.0,62100.0,84600.0,61500.0,66800.0,75300.0,52900.0,55400.0,51800.0,56200.0,61900.0,124500.0,136800.0,68400.0,55900.0,53200.0,69100.0,73600.0,51400.0,54700.0,51200.0,54900.0,61300.0,83500.0,106200.0,64800.0,78900.0,74100.0,68500.0,71800.0,54600.0,53900.0,56100.0,55800.0,79400.0,86700.0,67200.0,59800.0,54300.0,57600.0,76900.0,94300.0,56400.0,58900.0,79200.0,61400.0,54800.0,56100.0,55300.0,49700.0,52600.0,48900.0,55400.0,57200.0,49100.0,51800.0,50600.0,59400.0,56700.0,74800.0,88300.0,67500.0,96400.0,65200.0,58900.0,56300.0,52700.0,51400.0,91800.0,63500.0,64900.0,78600.0,76200.0,61400.0,50800.0,49200.0,64700.0,68900.0,49600.0,48700.0,64300.0,51200.0,54800.0,81500.0,84900.0,58600.0,61200.0,49500.0,68400.0,108500.0,56200.0,58400.0,218000.0,104600.0,64800.0,89300.0,102400.0,63700.0,58900.0,48600.0,64200.0,69800.0,96500.0,64100.0,88700.0,56300.0,65400.0,82600.0,69400.0,61800.0,51200.0,47900.0,63500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[52000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,53000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,62000.0,49000.0,54000.0,51000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,52000.0,88000.0,105000.0,60000.0,49000.0,46000.0,56000.0,48000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,49000.0,56000.0,72000.0,55000.0,58000.0,52000.0,57000.0,48000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,52000.0,58000.0,55000.0,53000.0,46000.0,47000.0,56000.0,48000.0,42000.0,49000.0,75000.0,53000.0,48000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,40000.0,44000.0,41000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,45000.0,46000.0,58000.0,65000.0,55000.0,64000.0,48000.0,46000.0,41000.0,38000.0,40000.0,55000.0,44000.0,48000.0,56000.0,54000.0,51000.0,43000.0,42000.0,52000.0,44000.0,38000.0,40000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,54000.0,58000.0,50000.0,48000.0,42000.0,54000.0,48000.0,44000.0,46000.0,125000.0,58000.0,48000.0,62000.0,68000.0,49000.0,44000.0,41000.0,51000.0,45000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,48000.0,55000.0,54000.0,49000.0,43000.0,41000.0,50000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[46000.0,39000.0,41000.0,41000.0,42000.0,49000.0,58000.0,54000.0,43000.0,50000.0,43000.0,52000.0,47000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,43000.0,50000.0,66000.0,72000.0,45000.0,44000.0,41000.0,51000.0,44000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,45000.0,54000.0,50000.0,45000.0,46000.0,39000.0,48000.0,41000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,44000.0,51000.0,48000.0,39000.0,42000.0,36000.0,46000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,40000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,32000.0,35000.0,32000.0,36000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,37000.0,44000.0,45000.0,38000.0,43000.0,36000.0,42000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,38000.0,34000.0,39000.0,45000.0,43000.0,36000.0,38000.0,33000.0,40000.0,34000.0,30000.0,31000.0,36000.0,32000.0,36000.0,43000.0,42000.0,34000.0,36000.0,31000.0,39000.0,34000.0,32000.0,38000.0,98000.0,45000.0,40000.0,46000.0,50000.0,36000.0,37000.0,32000.0,39000.0,32000.0,28000.0,30000.0,52000.0,33000.0,34000.0,40000.0,37000.0,31000.0,33000.0,29000.0,35000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[82000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,66000.0,80000.0,95000.0,85000.0,75000.0,82000.0,70000.0,80000.0,82000.0,66000.0,65000.0,63000.0,66000.0,72000.0,115000.0,125000.0,78000.0,68000.0,64000.0,78000.0,80000.0,64000.0,63000.0,62000.0,63000.0,70000.0,88000.0,100000.0,72000.0,78000.0,68000.0,76000.0,76000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,78000.0,85000.0,75000.0,68000.0,62000.0,60000.0,75000.0,72000.0,60000.0,58000.0,62000.0,58000.0,54000.0,54000.0,53000.0,50000.0,50000.0,49000.0,54000.0,56000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,53000.0,55000.0,66000.0,76000.0,66000.0,68000.0,60000.0,62000.0,60000.0,54000.0,54000.0,60000.0,58000.0,64000.0,74000.0,72000.0,62000.0,56000.0,54000.0,62000.0,64000.0,56000.0,55000.0,62000.0,56000.0,58000.0,74000.0,76000.0,64000.0,62000.0,56000.0,64000.0,68000.0,60000.0,64000.0,125000.0,72000.0,62000.0,78000.0,92000.0,66000.0,62000.0,58000.0,64000.0,68000.0,88000.0,66000.0,72000.0,64000.0,70000.0,80000.0,68000.0,66000.0,60000.0,57000.0,64000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[52300.0,40800.0,41900.0,43100.0,47600.0,62400.0,66100.0,64200.0,53500.0,74600.0,46200.0,77200.0,50400.0,39200.0,41100.0,43800.0,49300.0,58700.0,146500.0,113800.0,50600.0,54100.0,48300.0,88400.0,47200.0,37100.0,38400.0,36500.0,45200.0,59400.0,62800.0,119400.0,61700.0,78600.0,52400.0,86500.0,45300.0,35200.0,36900.0,35400.0,44100.0,57300.0,63500.0,60600.0,58400.0,47200.0,43800.0,81200.0,43100.0,34200.0,46400.0,31200.0,33400.0,32100.0,30900.0,30200.0,31500.0,62400.0,56800.0,44300.0,39100.0,31300.0,32400.0,34200.0,41900.0,50300.0,72600.0,98400.0,66300.0,55700.0,46200.0,82300.0,46300.0,35100.0,36200.0,40200.0,47400.0,61200.0,64100.0,67200.0,63400.0,54300.0,47100.0,77300.0,43300.0,40100.0,38200.0,37400.0,46100.0,58200.0,57400.0,92600.0,62300.0,50400.0,47200.0,95200.0,50200.0,41300.0,48300.0,132600.0,52100.0,64300.0,88400.0,78200.0,64100.0,52300.0,46400.0,87200.0,48200.0,39200.0,37100.0,41200.0,47300.0,62400.0,67300.0,72100.0,58400.0,49200.0,44300.0,83400.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[23841.0,21873.0,25112.0,25904.0,28157.0,33128.0,35942.0,34109.0,29874.0,26133.0,24058.0,31976.0,26145.0,21092.0,24178.0,25064.0,27189.0,32154.0,68315.0,85240.0,35112.0,28047.0,25931.0,33108.0,26984.0,22137.0,24155.0,26021.0,29073.0,34062.0,38194.0,55218.0,32045.0,27088.0,25019.0,34017.0,27963.0,22048.0,25077.0,26093.0,29014.0,35039.0,37026.0,36081.0,31042.0,27915.0,25066.0,35084.0,27012.0,23055.0,26138.0,28071.0,26034.0,25089.0,27047.0,26018.0,24073.0,26096.0,25012.0,28033.0,24051.0,21024.0,23088.0,24107.0,26042.0,28095.0,34018.0,36054.0,32061.0,28029.0,26073.0,33046.0,26038.0,21071.0,24092.0,26017.0,29055.0,33087.0,36033.0,35069.0,31018.0,27044.0,25081.0,33092.0,26074.0,21033.0,24067.0,26049.0,28062.0,32095.0,37081.0,35027.0,30058.0,27019.0,25044.0,34062.0,26091.0,22063.0,27048.0,75137.0,35092.0,32071.0,36048.0,38065.0,30037.0,26082.0,24029.0,32054.0,25083.0,20047.0,23061.0,25038.0,27094.0,31072.0,34059.0,33016.0,29043.0,25097.0,23012.0,30068.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[65000.0,57000.0,59000.0,61000.0,65000.0,71000.0,81000.0,74000.0,65000.0,62000.0,57000.0,84000.0,69000.0,61000.0,63000.0,65000.0,69000.0,76000.0,137000.0,115000.0,73000.0,66000.0,61000.0,89000.0,71000.0,63000.0,65000.0,67000.0,71000.0,78000.0,88000.0,82000.0,71000.0,88000.0,63000.0,92000.0,74000.0,64000.0,67000.0,69000.0,74000.0,81000.0,91000.0,84000.0,74000.0,70000.0,64000.0,95000.0,76000.0,70000.0,58000.0,51000.0,57000.0,60000.0,67000.0,62000.0,59000.0,59000.0,56000.0,83000.0,70000.0,61000.0,67000.0,69000.0,78000.0,89000.0,106000.0,120000.0,89000.0,81000.0,68000.0,120000.0,82000.0,72000.0,74000.0,76000.0,82000.0,90000.0,101000.0,94000.0,82000.0,105000.0,72000.0,105000.0,84000.0,74000.0,76000.0,78000.0,84000.0,92000.0,104000.0,96000.0,84000.0,80000.0,74000.0,108000.0,88000.0,77000.0,80000.0,82000.0,88000.0,97000.0,137000.0,111000.0,88000.0,84000.0,77000.0,113000.0,92000.0,81000.0,84000.0,86000.0,92000.0,101000.0,114000.0,106000.0,92000.0,88000.0,81000.0,119000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[48000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,52000.0,65000.0,60000.0,46000.0,82000.0,52000.0,55000.0,50000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,47000.0,55000.0,120000.0,105000.0,55000.0,48000.0,44000.0,58000.0,52000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,46000.0,55000.0,68000.0,92000.0,55000.0,48000.0,43000.0,55000.0,50000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,45000.0,55000.0,68000.0,62000.0,46000.0,43000.0,39000.0,54000.0,48000.0,41000.0,46000.0,80000.0,55000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,44000.0,39000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,40000.0,46000.0,55000.0,72000.0,60000.0,48000.0,43000.0,50000.0,46000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,41000.0,48000.0,60000.0,58000.0,43000.0,40000.0,36000.0,48000.0,43000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,46000.0,58000.0,54000.0,41000.0,37000.0,34000.0,46000.0,42000.0,34000.0,36000.0,110000.0,50000.0,46000.0,85000.0,78000.0,50000.0,41000.0,36000.0,50000.0,45000.0,35000.0,34000.0,37000.0,39000.0,46000.0,54000.0,50000.0,40000.0,36000.0,33000.0,43000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,42000.0,42000.0,52000.0,58000.0,56000.0,46000.0,44000.0,37000.0,51000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,42000.0,44000.0,58000.0,72000.0,62000.0,48000.0,45000.0,38000.0,54000.0,39000.0,36000.0,35000.0,44000.0,44000.0,57000.0,64000.0,70000.0,50000.0,47000.0,39000.0,56000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,40000.0,48000.0,67000.0,64000.0,60000.0,49000.0,46000.0,39000.0,57000.0,37000.0,35000.0,42000.0,60000.0,46000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,40000.0,43000.0,63000.0,58000.0,47000.0,50000.0,44000.0,62000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,43000.0,45000.0,57000.0,59000.0,56000.0,47000.0,45000.0,38000.0,54000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,45000.0,57000.0,61000.0,58000.0,49000.0,50000.0,43000.0,57000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,88000.0,56000.0,61000.0,74000.0,76000.0,50000.0,53000.0,42000.0,60000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,42000.0,46000.0,59000.0,62000.0,59000.0,49000.0,47000.0,40000.0,57000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[175000.0,115000.0,110000.0,118000.0,122000.0,160000.0,230000.0,225000.0,140000.0,245000.0,145000.0,220000.0,145000.0,155000.0,130000.0,132000.0,138000.0,160000.0,590000.0,680000.0,155000.0,170000.0,160000.0,245000.0,150000.0,133000.0,130000.0,137000.0,143000.0,180000.0,260000.0,265000.0,160000.0,390000.0,165000.0,250000.0,160000.0,142000.0,138000.0,147000.0,153000.0,195000.0,275000.0,285000.0,172000.0,187000.0,177000.0,270000.0,185000.0,166000.0,260000.0,450000.0,260000.0,255000.0,270000.0,280000.0,255000.0,245000.0,235000.0,190000.0,205000.0,176000.0,171000.0,180000.0,189000.0,225000.0,400000.0,410000.0,216000.0,280000.0,216000.0,380000.0,205000.0,180000.0,175000.0,186000.0,194000.0,247000.0,360000.0,370000.0,218000.0,237000.0,224000.0,350000.0,216000.0,360000.0,190000.0,200000.0,210000.0,270000.0,420000.0,430000.0,230000.0,260000.0,270000.0,420000.0,242000.0,255000.0,210000.0,900000.0,300000.0,350000.0,930000.0,1000000.0,285000.0,300000.0,275000.0,460000.0,248000.0,220000.0,212000.0,225000.0,235000.0,310000.0,490000.0,500000.0,265000.0,290000.0,270000.0,460000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[12600.0,10900.0,11800.0,13200.0,14700.0,18300.0,67500.0,31800.0,24600.0,18700.0,15900.0,12700.0,13200.0,11500.0,15100.0,17400.0,19800.0,24700.0,29400.0,26100.0,22200.0,18600.0,16700.0,13900.0,14300.0,12500.0,14100.0,19300.0,19700.0,22400.0,27900.0,35600.0,25100.0,20400.0,18500.0,15400.0,15700.0,13500.0,15300.0,20100.0,20600.0,23400.0,29800.0,28200.0,23700.0,20300.0,18900.0,16200.0,17200.0,15600.0,20500.0,27800.0,31400.0,34900.0,38600.0,30100.0,34000.0,27700.0,23500.0,19800.0,18400.0,15900.0,17300.0,19400.0,21200.0,23300.0,26400.0,24100.0,21800.0,20200.0,20900.0,17900.0,18700.0,16300.0,17900.0,21400.0,25900.0,30100.0,34300.0,35900.0,27800.0,22700.0,22300.0,19600.0,20400.0,17800.0,28500.0,35900.0,25100.0,28800.0,36400.0,38700.0,30100.0,25800.0,58700.0,29300.0,22700.0,27500.0,35800.0,57900.0,33900.0,36800.0,45600.0,62400.0,38900.0,31800.0,43700.0,29200.0,25900.0,24100.0,71500.0,45800.0,37300.0,40200.0,49800.0,52600.0,41000.0,35400.0,36900.0,30400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[52000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,50000.0,47000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,46000.0,50000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,42000.0,52000.0,60000.0,47000.0,43000.0,41000.0,45000.0,49000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,39000.0,43000.0,47000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,42000.0,46000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,37000.0,41000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,42000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,41000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,41000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,41000.0,36000.0,37000.0,46000.0,39000.0,37000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,40000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[42000.0,41000.0,62000.0,58000.0,47000.0,53000.0,68000.0,72000.0,56000.0,59000.0,65000.0,76000.0,52000.0,49000.0,88000.0,76000.0,62000.0,65000.0,82000.0,85000.0,70000.0,82000.0,94000.0,112000.0,65000.0,60000.0,76000.0,70000.0,58000.0,61000.0,75000.0,79000.0,67000.0,72000.0,80000.0,92000.0,68000.0,60000.0,70000.0,65000.0,54000.0,70000.0,76000.0,87000.0,72000.0,78000.0,84000.0,95000.0,52000.0,48000.0,65000.0,45000.0,38000.0,58000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,48000.0,45000.0,56000.0,40000.0,37000.0,52000.0,58000.0,64000.0,96000.0,82000.0,120000.0,92000.0,76000.0,66000.0,98000.0,62000.0,55000.0,78000.0,90000.0,76000.0,104000.0,96000.0,126000.0,110000.0,98000.0,117000.0,135000.0,68000.0,62000.0,102000.0,88000.0,66000.0,118000.0,102000.0,138000.0,118000.0,113000.0,122000.0,132000.0,74000.0,88000.0,112000.0,96000.0,76000.0,126000.0,114000.0,148000.0,128000.0,122000.0,136000.0,162000.0,88000.0,82000.0,112000.0,98000.0,78000.0,118000.0,112000.0,142000.0,122000.0,116000.0,128000.0,148000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[14500.0,11500.0,12800.0,12400.0,14000.0,15500.0,19400.0,18600.0,15800.0,16900.0,13500.0,17200.0,14000.0,11000.0,12700.0,13200.0,14500.0,17000.0,28500.0,19000.0,15600.0,18500.0,14000.0,18000.0,14500.0,11200.0,12500.0,13100.0,14600.0,16500.0,20000.0,18000.0,15500.0,17500.0,14000.0,18500.0,14200.0,10800.0,12300.0,12800.0,14300.0,16600.0,20500.0,18700.0,15100.0,17800.0,13800.0,18100.0,15000.0,12000.0,14500.0,13200.0,12000.0,10500.0,12000.0,11200.0,11900.0,15000.0,11200.0,17000.0,13000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12500.0,14000.0,18000.0,23000.0,27000.0,20000.0,24000.0,15000.0,21000.0,15500.0,11800.0,13000.0,13500.0,15000.0,18500.0,22500.0,20500.0,16500.0,19500.0,14800.0,19000.0,15000.0,11500.0,12800.0,13500.0,15000.0,18000.0,22000.0,19500.0,18000.0,21000.0,31000.0,25000.0,28000.0,21000.0,25000.0,55000.0,28000.0,20000.0,22000.0,30000.0,17000.0,20000.0,16000.0,21000.0,16500.0,12500.0,14000.0,15000.0,16500.0,19500.0,24000.0,22500.0,17500.0,20500.0,15500.0,22000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[6300.0,5950.0,6300.0,6650.0,7000.0,7700.0,8750.0,8400.0,7000.0,6650.0,6300.0,8400.0,6120.0,5780.0,6120.0,6460.0,6800.0,7480.0,8500.0,8160.0,6800.0,6460.0,6120.0,8160.0,5850.0,5525.0,5850.0,6175.0,6500.0,7150.0,8125.0,7800.0,6500.0,6175.0,5850.0,7800.0,5580.0,5270.0,5580.0,5890.0,6200.0,6820.0,7750.0,7440.0,6200.0,5890.0,5580.0,7440.0,6120.0,5780.0,6800.0,7200.0,7500.0,7800.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6400.0,6400.0,8500.0,5400.0,5100.0,5400.0,5700.0,6000.0,6600.0,7500.0,7200.0,6000.0,5700.0,5400.0,7200.0,5580.0,5270.0,5580.0,5890.0,6200.0,6820.0,7750.0,7440.0,6200.0,5890.0,5580.0,7440.0,5670.0,5355.0,5670.0,5985.0,6300.0,6930.0,7875.0,7560.0,6300.0,5985.0,5670.0,7560.0,9000.0,6400.0,6900.0,7100.0,7500.0,8250.0,9400.0,11000.0,7500.0,7100.0,6750.0,9000.0,5940.0,5610.0,5940.0,6270.0,6600.0,7260.0,8250.0,7920.0,6600.0,6270.0,5940.0,7920.0]}},{"title":"Graham Greene (actor)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Graham Greene (actor)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[28645,22657,31521,28749,20368,23897,23714,25225,27967,31782,29199,38312,34179,34367,45727,25916,27662,31500,35645,42594,44585,37802,51986,52252,57661,40623,61528,44590,40473,30199,36129,30355,24899,36458,41155,42741,40144,42840,35333,31805,26094,27049,28256,31127,32676,41999,29661,32716,34060,35670,33320,41513,46273,36937,49286,38981,38490,34821,40573,56348,52908,45714,62553,49717,47470,35744,38966,38108,51180,47692,47268,60254,61217,70207,63381,43539,39324,39787,38922,40966,37985,34653,41362,50852,71646,104646,63496,49768,44453,48431,47782,76236,52554,48101,47190,54373,128539,59213,52746,47010,42266,42486,43620,40390,44770,37807,50470,60204,56017,46002,58346,56593,48921,46912,54138,46516,1332126,112225,101956,98747],"flat_reference_value":16880.498607076108,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,20000.0,20500.0,21000.0,28500.0,30000.0,24500.0,22500.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,25000.0,22500.0,41000.0,52000.0,38000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23500.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26500.0,27000.0,25000.0,24500.0,23500.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,36000.0,30000.0,27500.0,27500.0,25500.0,29000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27500.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25500.0,26000.0,27000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,44000.0,57000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,34000.0,35000.0,145000.0,90000.0,47000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,115000.0,58000.0,40000.0,65000.0,48000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,100000.0,56000.0,41000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[52400.0,46800.0,47500.0,45200.0,46100.0,45900.0,48300.0,47600.0,56200.0,51400.0,48900.0,52100.0,54600.0,47900.0,48500.0,46700.0,47800.0,46900.0,50200.0,96400.0,87500.0,61800.0,81300.0,84900.0,124600.0,81500.0,67400.0,55800.0,53200.0,51900.0,54600.0,56100.0,52800.0,77400.0,134800.0,96200.0,78500.0,59400.0,57200.0,53800.0,54100.0,52600.0,55900.0,56700.0,54300.0,67800.0,58400.0,60200.0,58900.0,53400.0,65200.0,74600.0,70800.0,62400.0,61500.0,60900.0,57300.0,58600.0,59200.0,63800.0,64500.0,57800.0,59400.0,56200.0,55700.0,54900.0,57600.0,58300.0,55400.0,67900.0,63500.0,62800.0,64200.0,75600.0,108400.0,73800.0,60400.0,57900.0,59600.0,58200.0,55800.0,56900.0,59300.0,66400.0,94200.0,214800.0,115600.0,71900.0,61400.0,58700.0,61200.0,91800.0,104500.0,69800.0,59600.0,62400.0,174900.0,83600.0,63800.0,55400.0,53200.0,51800.0,53900.0,52700.0,49800.0,51200.0,50600.0,54800.0,55300.0,48900.0,52400.0,64700.0,56800.0,49200.0,50400.0,49600.0,48100.0,48900.0,49500.0,53200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[29400.0,26800.0,25100.0,23900.0,24200.0,23100.0,24800.0,26200.0,24500.0,25900.0,28100.0,29800.0,28500.0,25300.0,26100.0,24200.0,23800.0,24900.0,27200.0,43500.0,37100.0,28900.0,27400.0,30200.0,31400.0,26800.0,25900.0,24700.0,24100.0,23500.0,25200.0,26800.0,27300.0,42100.0,54800.0,39200.0,32600.0,28400.0,27900.0,25600.0,24800.0,24100.0,26500.0,27100.0,25300.0,26900.0,28200.0,31500.0,30800.0,27100.0,33400.0,38200.0,36100.0,29800.0,28500.0,27400.0,26300.0,28200.0,29500.0,32100.0,31200.0,27400.0,26800.0,25300.0,24700.0,23900.0,25600.0,26400.0,29800.0,28500.0,27100.0,30500.0,31800.0,26500.0,27100.0,25200.0,24600.0,23800.0,26100.0,27300.0,28900.0,27800.0,28400.0,31200.0,32500.0,94800.0,46200.0,33100.0,28400.0,26700.0,27900.0,30500.0,28100.0,27600.0,28900.0,34100.0,73200.0,41500.0,31200.0,27400.0,25800.0,24900.0,26300.0,27100.0,25800.0,26900.0,28200.0,30400.0,29800.0,26100.0,26700.0,25100.0,24400.0,23600.0,25200.0,26000.0,24900.0,25800.0,27100.0,29300.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,38000.0,40000.0,33000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,45000.0,60000.0,48000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,42000.0,33000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,900000.0,110000.0,60000.0,50000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[62000.0,55000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,50000.0,55000.0,58000.0,50000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,50000.0,95000.0,105000.0,85000.0,120000.0,110000.0,115000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,65000.0,85000.0,75000.0,65000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,65000.0,68000.0,58000.0,58000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,80000.0,65000.0,62000.0,65000.0,58000.0,65000.0,80000.0,75000.0,65000.0,65000.0,62000.0,58000.0,57000.0,60000.0,65000.0,70000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0,65000.0,65000.0,60000.0,60000.0,65000.0,75000.0,120000.0,85000.0,68000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,65000.0,65000.0,60000.0,62000.0,68000.0,75000.0,260000.0,120000.0,75000.0,68000.0,65000.0,68000.0,72000.0,70000.0,65000.0,65000.0,70000.0,110000.0,75000.0,68000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,62000.0,70000.0,90000.0,80000.0,72000.0,70000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,1600000.0,170000.0,120000.0,110000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,9000.0,12000.0,9500.0,28000.0,12000.0,7500.0,7000.0,8500.0,16000.0,8000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6200.0,6500.0,6400.0,6600.0,6800.0,7200.0,7500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6400.0,6200.0,6000.0,6300.0,6200.0,6400.0,6500.0,7000.0,7200.0,6500.0,7000.0,7200.0,6800.0,8500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6700.0,6900.0,7400.0,7200.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,6500.0,7000.0,6400.0,6500.0,6600.0,6800.0,7000.0,7500.0,7300.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0,6600.0,7100.0,6500.0,6600.0,6800.0,7000.0,7200.0,22000.0,45000.0,32000.0,14000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,10500.0,38000.0,14000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,9200.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,9800.0,10500.0,11000.0,24000.0,26000.0,18000.0,12000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[13842.0,12457.0,13120.0,11483.0,10952.0,10418.0,11567.0,12134.0,10984.0,11652.0,12189.0,10873.0,11234.0,10218.0,10976.0,10452.0,10889.0,11245.0,15873.0,28451.0,22478.0,16234.0,12876.0,15234.0,12118.0,10542.0,11234.0,10387.0,9876.0,9423.0,10145.0,9872.0,9634.0,10456.0,10789.0,9845.0,10234.0,8934.0,9678.0,9123.0,8876.0,8345.0,9123.0,9456.0,8912.0,9345.0,9876.0,9123.0,9567.0,9234.0,13456.0,14892.0,13234.0,11567.0,10894.0,10456.0,10234.0,10987.0,11456.0,10892.0,10234.0,9456.0,9876.0,9234.0,8945.0,8678.0,9123.0,9345.0,9567.0,10234.0,12456.0,20345.0,22187.0,17894.0,11234.0,9876.0,9234.0,8765.0,8934.0,9123.0,9345.0,9234.0,10876.0,9876.0,9234.0,8123.0,8678.0,8234.0,7987.0,7645.0,8123.0,8345.0,7987.0,8456.0,8765.0,8123.0,27654.0,15432.0,9876.0,8765.0,8345.0,7987.0,8234.0,8456.0,8123.0,8765.0,9123.0,8543.0,9123.0,8234.0,8765.0,8345.0,8123.0,7987.0,8456.0,9123.0,842367.0,78234.0,23145.0,14234.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[28000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,32000.0,45000.0,85000.0,60000.0,42000.0,36000.0,38000.0,55000.0,48000.0,42000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,48000.0,62000.0,55000.0,52000.0,70000.0,78000.0,72000.0,55000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,55000.0,62000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4700.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,5200.0,5400.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,200000.0,22000.0,8500.0,6500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[21500.0,26800.0,17400.0,12200.0,11800.0,12400.0,12900.0,12600.0,17200.0,18500.0,14200.0,11300.0,10600.0,10200.0,10900.0,11400.0,11200.0,11800.0,12300.0,11900.0,16800.0,14600.0,16200.0,11000.0,10400.0,9800.0,10400.0,10200.0,10600.0,11100.0,11500.0,11200.0,10900.0,10600.0,10100.0,9600.0,17500.0,15800.0,14200.0,10600.0,10200.0,10800.0,11200.0,11000.0,10500.0,10800.0,10300.0,9700.0,9800.0,9500.0,12800.0,13500.0,12400.0,10800.0,11200.0,11000.0,10600.0,10200.0,10400.0,10600.0,9200.0,8800.0,9400.0,9200.0,9600.0,10100.0,11000.0,23500.0,27200.0,17800.0,12400.0,9600.0,9000.0,8700.0,10300.0,9200.0,9600.0,19600.0,21400.0,16500.0,12200.0,9900.0,9500.0,9200.0,8900.0,8600.0,9200.0,9000.0,9400.0,18800.0,21000.0,18200.0,12800.0,14500.0,11200.0,9100.0,8700.0,8400.0,8900.0,8700.0,13500.0,10500.0,9500.0,9300.0,12600.0,10800.0,9700.0,8900.0,21800.0,17500.0,11200.0,19500.0,22300.0,12800.0,10500.0,10800.0,238000.0,37500.0,18700.0,13200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4028.0,3876.0,3990.0,3800.0,3876.0,3610.0,3420.0,3496.0,3914.0,4028.0,3990.0,3610.0,4240.0,4080.0,4200.0,4000.0,4080.0,5320.0,3600.0,3680.0,4120.0,4240.0,4200.0,3800.0,4452.0,4284.0,5733.0,4200.0,4284.0,3990.0,3780.0,3864.0,4326.0,5342.0,4410.0,3990.0,4770.0,4590.0,4725.0,4500.0,4590.0,5558.0,4050.0,4140.0,4635.0,4770.0,4725.0,7695.0,7992.0,5916.0,6090.0,5800.0,5916.0,5510.0,5220.0,5336.0,5974.0,7992.0,13398.0,6612.0,5936.0,5712.0,5880.0,5600.0,5712.0,5320.0,5040.0,5152.0,6922.0,11872.0,8232.0,5320.0,6148.0,5916.0,6090.0,7540.0,5916.0,5510.0,5220.0,5336.0,5974.0,6148.0,6090.0,6612.0,6572.0,6324.0,6510.0,6200.0,6324.0,5890.0,7254.0,5704.0,6386.0,6572.0,6510.0,5890.0,6890.0,6630.0,6825.0,6500.0,9282.0,6175.0,5850.0,5980.0,6695.0,6890.0,8190.0,6175.0,7420.0,7140.0,7350.0,7000.0,9282.0,14630.0,9450.0,6440.0,7210.0,7420.0,7350.0,8645.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[104200.0,98900.0,101500.0,154800.0,101700.0,97400.0,92600.0,90100.0,97300.0,134600.0,99500.0,108400.0,102900.0,96200.0,99800.0,145300.0,99100.0,95200.0,90400.0,88100.0,95000.0,244500.0,97800.0,106200.0,101600.0,94300.0,97900.0,139400.0,97200.0,93100.0,88300.0,86200.0,92900.0,123800.0,94100.0,102700.0,99400.0,92100.0,95400.0,135800.0,94700.0,91100.0,86700.0,84200.0,91500.0,162400.0,91200.0,100100.0,106800.0,97200.0,112600.0,145300.0,112000.0,104700.0,97600.0,93800.0,101500.0,132700.0,99800.0,113200.0,102700.0,94400.0,97600.0,157100.0,97200.0,93100.0,88400.0,85700.0,92800.0,134100.0,92300.0,101600.0,98100.0,90300.0,93700.0,137900.0,93100.0,89200.0,84100.0,81700.0,89300.0,118600.0,88200.0,97400.0,94900.0,105500.0,91200.0,132600.0,90300.0,86400.0,81200.0,78800.0,85700.0,113800.0,84900.0,93500.0,91800.0,84600.0,88100.0,129400.0,87200.0,83100.0,78700.0,76500.0,82900.0,219500.0,81800.0,90700.0,88600.0,81400.0,84700.0,123800.0,83300.0,79800.0,75900.0,73700.0,80100.0,107900.0,78600.0,87400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,3200.0,2400.0,2000.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2800.0,2600.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,3000.0,2600.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,2500.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[863.0,752.0,717.0,690.0,664.0,637.0,622.0,651.0,679.0,726.0,749.0,826.0,928.0,875.0,860.0,886.0,791.0,721.0,732.0,1103.0,1037.0,1025.0,973.0,1057.0,1063.0,1087.0,984.0,873.0,924.0,803.0,822.0,978.0,986.0,992.0,1228.0,1782.0,1952.0,1564.0,1204.0,1038.0,972.0,903.0,897.0,931.0,1051.0,1104.0,1093.0,1188.0,1369.0,1381.0,1208.0,1188.0,1125.0,1018.0,950.0,1029.0,1152.0,1218.0,1232.0,1241.0,1703.0,1732.0,1415.0,1248.0,1184.0,1106.0,1092.0,1171.0,1256.0,1286.0,1361.0,1474.0,1574.0,1548.0,1398.0,1282.0,1243.0,1260.0,1131.0,1204.0,1342.0,1462.0,1614.0,1590.0,2064.0,2273.0,1799.0,1595.0,1419.0,1311.0,1282.0,1372.0,1647.0,1674.0,1974.0,1731.0,2148.0,2058.0,1724.0,1569.0,1547.0,1403.0,1452.0,1672.0,1866.0,1812.0,1808.0,1884.0,2138.0,2913.0,2596.0,2329.0,1965.0,1606.0,1558.0,1667.0,1864.0,1877.0,1869.0,1952.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[920.0,860.0,980.0,910.0,950.0,890.0,1020.0,1080.0,970.0,940.0,1010.0,1080.0,960.0,910.0,1050.0,980.0,1010.0,1050.0,1390.0,1960.0,1630.0,1220.0,1080.0,1130.0,1010.0,920.0,1060.0,990.0,1030.0,980.0,1100.0,1050.0,990.0,1070.0,1000.0,1140.0,1020.0,940.0,1080.0,1010.0,1040.0,990.0,1120.0,1090.0,1030.0,1100.0,1050.0,1190.0,1110.0,1030.0,1190.0,1140.0,1090.0,1060.0,1170.0,1120.0,1080.0,1160.0,1110.0,1340.0,1160.0,1070.0,1210.0,1140.0,1180.0,1310.0,1510.0,1660.0,1430.0,1270.0,1190.0,1320.0,1260.0,1140.0,1290.0,1210.0,1240.0,1190.0,1350.0,1290.0,1230.0,1310.0,1250.0,1410.0,1290.0,1190.0,1360.0,1280.0,1310.0,1480.0,1740.0,1830.0,1550.0,1370.0,1300.0,1450.0,1320.0,1220.0,1380.0,1300.0,1340.0,1280.0,1430.0,1380.0,1310.0,1400.0,1340.0,1510.0,1400.0,1290.0,1450.0,1380.0,1420.0,1360.0,1510.0,1470.0,155000.0,14800.0,7800.0,6200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1950.0,1950.0,2000.0,2100.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0]}},{"title":"Julius Erving","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Julius Erving\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[52135,72836,46190,76176,67256,87301,59193,39180,43344,36609,43238,56573,53069,71250,69891,58748,75065,146827,61991,45475,44818,39064,47228,53078,77943,81926,59443,62921,68954,66526,56336,42691,32853,43291,48019,49953,53651,74075,59214,54698,61785,59370,104108,52400,39619,33170,36703,41621,75344,96015,65752,108862,180846,76133,52382,57661,56151,84791,59808,57691,60394,69292,74365,84229,64342,75236,65673,45354,44740,42754,39183,51426,58427,92308,108558,156630,163039,148492,77175,77622,45228,48509,47535,47426,66000,116638,75374,69966,124834,83411,77132,88624,75852,50021,49148,59954,57835,80555,59632,63613,81281,62466,44095,42547,35790,58778,47596,49971,52490,66109,62691,51615,59539,54272,47925,37616,26976,40604,43504,40169],"flat_reference_value":16852.912023491608,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[56000.0,64000.0,53000.0,59000.0,62000.0,65000.0,46000.0,42000.0,43000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,51000.0,62000.0,54000.0,61000.0,65000.0,68000.0,47000.0,44000.0,45000.0,52000.0,53000.0,50000.0,55000.0,67000.0,57000.0,66000.0,71000.0,69000.0,49000.0,46000.0,47000.0,54000.0,55000.0,52000.0,57000.0,69000.0,59000.0,66000.0,72000.0,74000.0,53000.0,49000.0,50000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,72000.0,100000.0,69000.0,88000.0,105000.0,78000.0,68000.0,73000.0,70000.0,75000.0,58000.0,57000.0,62000.0,76000.0,66000.0,68000.0,76000.0,80000.0,69000.0,55000.0,53000.0,78000.0,65000.0,60000.0,65000.0,95000.0,78000.0,105000.0,120000.0,85000.0,60000.0,55000.0,54000.0,62000.0,62000.0,59000.0,64000.0,79000.0,67000.0,80000.0,85000.0,80000.0,60000.0,55000.0,54000.0,61000.0,60000.0,57000.0,62000.0,77000.0,65000.0,75000.0,81000.0,76000.0,59000.0,55000.0,53000.0,61000.0,59000.0,57000.0,63000.0,92000.0,66000.0,76000.0,81000.0,78000.0,59000.0,54000.0,53000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[78000.0,135000.0,86000.0,84000.0,89000.0,95000.0,72000.0,61000.0,59000.0,68000.0,73000.0,76000.0,79000.0,112000.0,85000.0,83000.0,88000.0,94000.0,71000.0,62000.0,61000.0,72000.0,108000.0,77000.0,81000.0,118000.0,87000.0,89000.0,96000.0,92000.0,75000.0,63000.0,60000.0,71000.0,74000.0,78000.0,82000.0,115000.0,86000.0,88000.0,97000.0,91000.0,76000.0,64000.0,62000.0,73000.0,75000.0,79000.0,114000.0,128000.0,85000.0,132000.0,175000.0,96000.0,84000.0,88000.0,92000.0,95000.0,78000.0,84000.0,89000.0,122000.0,92000.0,126000.0,112000.0,104000.0,96000.0,74000.0,71000.0,106000.0,86000.0,85000.0,88000.0,142000.0,95000.0,93000.0,98000.0,158000.0,94000.0,73000.0,68000.0,76000.0,78000.0,81000.0,84000.0,124000.0,88000.0,87000.0,95000.0,91000.0,112000.0,96000.0,67000.0,74000.0,75000.0,78000.0,80000.0,116000.0,83000.0,82000.0,89000.0,88000.0,73000.0,65000.0,61000.0,69000.0,70000.0,73000.0,76000.0,110000.0,79000.0,78000.0,85000.0,84000.0,69000.0,59000.0,57000.0,65000.0,67000.0,70000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[58000.0,85000.0,55000.0,52000.0,58000.0,62000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,50000.0,53000.0,52000.0,55000.0,68000.0,54000.0,52000.0,56000.0,59000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,51000.0,53000.0,50000.0,165000.0,75000.0,56000.0,54000.0,58000.0,55000.0,48000.0,45000.0,44000.0,52000.0,55000.0,51000.0,56000.0,70000.0,55000.0,53000.0,57000.0,60000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,53000.0,54000.0,52000.0,72000.0,80000.0,55000.0,95000.0,110000.0,65000.0,52000.0,51000.0,55000.0,58000.0,52000.0,50000.0,54000.0,72000.0,56000.0,55000.0,58000.0,60000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,82000.0,62000.0,55000.0,56000.0,85000.0,58000.0,56000.0,60000.0,62000.0,49000.0,48000.0,46000.0,54000.0,52000.0,51000.0,55000.0,92000.0,58000.0,56000.0,62000.0,60000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,53000.0,52000.0,50000.0,54000.0,74000.0,56000.0,54000.0,58000.0,62000.0,49000.0,50000.0,47000.0,52000.0,51000.0,50000.0,53000.0,70000.0,55000.0,53000.0,57000.0,59000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[72000.0,80000.0,74000.0,70000.0,71000.0,69000.0,62000.0,60000.0,59000.0,64000.0,66000.0,65000.0,68000.0,76000.0,69000.0,66000.0,67000.0,65000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,60000.0,61000.0,60000.0,63000.0,70000.0,64000.0,62000.0,63000.0,61000.0,54000.0,52000.0,51000.0,56000.0,57000.0,56000.0,58000.0,65000.0,59000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,52000.0,53000.0,52000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,78000.0,80000.0,62000.0,55000.0,53000.0,52000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,54000.0,59000.0,54000.0,52000.0,53000.0,52000.0,47000.0,45000.0,45000.0,56000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,60000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,53000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,49000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,58000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[125000.0,135000.0,125000.0,130000.0,135000.0,135000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,120000.0,125000.0,120000.0,120000.0,125000.0,125000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,105000.0,108000.0,110000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,120000.0,125000.0,120000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,112000.0,120000.0,118000.0,105000.0,98000.0,92000.0,98000.0,100000.0,102000.0,115000.0,115000.0,115000.0,210000.0,230000.0,140000.0,120000.0,115000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,105000.0,110000.0,120000.0,115000.0,100000.0,95000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,102000.0,110000.0,110000.0,115000.0,115000.0,200000.0,125000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,98000.0,105000.0,98000.0,105000.0,108000.0,100000.0,92000.0,90000.0,85000.0,88000.0,88000.0,90000.0,92000.0,98000.0,92000.0,95000.0,100000.0,98000.0,90000.0,88000.0,82000.0,85000.0,85000.0,86000.0,88000.0,92000.0,88000.0,90000.0,95000.0,92000.0,84000.0,80000.0,76000.0,80000.0,80000.0,82000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[49400.0,62300.0,53100.0,60200.0,58900.0,57600.0,46800.0,43900.0,43200.0,48700.0,49800.0,46300.0,44500.0,55800.0,48200.0,52700.0,54100.0,51900.0,41800.0,39400.0,39900.0,44300.0,45600.0,42100.0,43600.0,54900.0,46800.0,51900.0,52800.0,50400.0,42300.0,38700.0,38100.0,43900.0,44700.0,41200.0,41300.0,51700.0,44900.0,49600.0,50300.0,47800.0,39700.0,36800.0,36100.0,41400.0,42800.0,39200.0,81500.0,67900.0,39800.0,58400.0,61700.0,49900.0,43600.0,45200.0,46100.0,44700.0,42900.0,44300.0,44800.0,57900.0,52300.0,53100.0,54200.0,52900.0,41600.0,39900.0,40200.0,88400.0,62300.0,49700.0,46200.0,71800.0,55400.0,58100.0,57600.0,52800.0,43100.0,62400.0,44200.0,46800.0,45700.0,43900.0,43700.0,60900.0,48900.0,51600.0,52700.0,57900.0,41900.0,38900.0,38200.0,44100.0,43800.0,41700.0,42900.0,58300.0,45200.0,49800.0,51200.0,60100.0,42400.0,38300.0,37600.0,43200.0,42800.0,40900.0,41800.0,59700.0,44900.0,49600.0,50300.0,48800.0,41100.0,37200.0,36800.0,45900.0,43100.0,40600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[30400.0,28500.0,26900.0,28300.0,27100.0,25400.0,21800.0,20900.0,23600.0,26200.0,27500.0,24100.0,29100.0,27700.0,25900.0,27200.0,26100.0,24600.0,20800.0,20100.0,22800.0,25300.0,78500.0,27400.0,28100.0,26500.0,24900.0,26100.0,24800.0,23500.0,19900.0,19300.0,21900.0,24300.0,25100.0,22400.0,26800.0,25400.0,23800.0,25100.0,23900.0,22600.0,19100.0,18500.0,21000.0,23300.0,24000.0,21400.0,87500.0,41200.0,24800.0,21200.0,19800.0,18900.0,17500.0,18200.0,20500.0,22800.0,23600.0,21900.0,24400.0,23200.0,21800.0,22900.0,22100.0,20700.0,17400.0,16900.0,19200.0,26800.0,23400.0,19600.0,23300.0,22700.0,22900.0,21800.0,20700.0,19600.0,22400.0,16100.0,18200.0,20300.0,20900.0,18600.0,22100.0,21000.0,19700.0,20700.0,20100.0,18600.0,15800.0,15200.0,17400.0,19300.0,19800.0,17600.0,21000.0,19900.0,18700.0,19600.0,18800.0,17600.0,14900.0,14400.0,16500.0,18300.0,18800.0,16700.0,20400.0,19400.0,18200.0,19100.0,18200.0,17100.0,14500.0,14000.0,16000.0,17800.0,18300.0,16200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[42000.0,47000.0,44000.0,50000.0,48000.0,53000.0,41000.0,32000.0,29000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,44000.0,51000.0,47000.0,49000.0,51000.0,54000.0,43000.0,34000.0,32000.0,44000.0,41000.0,41000.0,47000.0,54000.0,51000.0,54000.0,56000.0,59000.0,52000.0,38000.0,36000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,51000.0,58000.0,54000.0,58000.0,59000.0,63000.0,51000.0,40000.0,38000.0,51000.0,49000.0,47000.0,66000.0,61000.0,65000.0,78000.0,73000.0,59000.0,63000.0,57000.0,61000.0,58000.0,51000.0,58000.0,60000.0,61000.0,69000.0,63000.0,69000.0,71000.0,72000.0,62000.0,47000.0,74000.0,58000.0,56000.0,63000.0,71000.0,68000.0,70000.0,73000.0,76000.0,63000.0,61000.0,48000.0,62000.0,59000.0,57000.0,63000.0,79000.0,68000.0,70000.0,72000.0,77000.0,63000.0,50000.0,47000.0,64000.0,61000.0,58000.0,59000.0,66000.0,63000.0,65000.0,70000.0,76000.0,61000.0,64000.0,52000.0,57000.0,55000.0,52000.0,56000.0,63000.0,59000.0,62000.0,65000.0,70000.0,57000.0,45000.0,42000.0,56000.0,53000.0,51000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,60000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,60000.0,38000.0,33000.0,32000.0,60000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32000.0,42000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,65000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[15600.0,17900.0,17000.0,18400.0,19000.0,19600.0,13900.0,15500.0,16700.0,20100.0,17900.0,15000.0,15200.0,17300.0,16500.0,17800.0,18500.0,19000.0,13500.0,14000.0,16200.0,31000.0,17300.0,14500.0,14500.0,16600.0,15800.0,17100.0,17700.0,18200.0,13000.0,13400.0,15500.0,18600.0,16600.0,13900.0,14300.0,16300.0,15500.0,16700.0,17400.0,17800.0,12700.0,13200.0,15200.0,18300.0,16300.0,13600.0,15200.0,26000.0,21000.0,24000.0,23500.0,19500.0,15000.0,16500.0,17000.0,20500.0,17000.0,17500.0,14700.0,16800.0,16000.0,17300.0,17900.0,18400.0,13100.0,16500.0,15700.0,34000.0,16800.0,19000.0,14500.0,33000.0,15800.0,17100.0,17700.0,18200.0,13000.0,13400.0,15500.0,26000.0,16600.0,13900.0,14300.0,16300.0,15500.0,16700.0,20500.0,19000.0,12700.0,13200.0,15200.0,18300.0,16300.0,13600.0,14700.0,16800.0,16000.0,19500.0,21500.0,25000.0,14500.0,16000.0,28500.0,19000.0,16800.0,14100.0,14500.0,25000.0,15800.0,17100.0,17700.0,18200.0,13000.0,13400.0,15500.0,20500.0,16600.0,13900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,25400.0,26000.0,23000.0,18000.0,17200.0,17800.0,21900.0,22500.0,21600.0,21000.0,22100.0,23600.0,25000.0,25200.0,24100.0,18900.0,18100.0,18700.0,22900.0,23600.0,22600.0,23000.0,24200.0,26800.0,30800.0,32500.0,26300.0,20700.0,19800.0,20500.0,25000.0,25700.0,25200.0,24500.0,25700.0,27000.0,31400.0,35200.0,28000.0,22100.0,21100.0,21800.0,26000.0,26700.0,26200.0,33500.0,32900.0,30300.0,30800.0,31600.0,30300.0,35000.0,28000.0,28500.0,34000.0,28900.0,28300.0,33000.0,34700.0,36300.0,37000.0,38000.0,39300.0,29700.0,28400.0,29400.0,33700.0,34700.0,69000.0,42000.0,41500.0,33000.0,37600.0,43500.0,34000.0,27000.0,25800.0,26700.0,30600.0,31500.0,30900.0,28500.0,29900.0,32000.0,35900.0,52800.0,33400.0,27700.0,24500.0,25400.0,29100.0,29900.0,29400.0,25500.0,26800.0,29100.0,31600.0,42300.0,28100.0,22900.0,24000.0,22700.0,26000.0,26800.0,26300.0,21500.0,22600.0,26000.0,26100.0,24700.0,23700.0,37400.0,24500.0,19100.0,21900.0,22600.0,22100.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[21800.0,20700.0,23100.0,26400.0,28700.0,27200.0,23900.0,22100.0,23600.0,27100.0,28400.0,30100.0,24900.0,23800.0,25600.0,28400.0,30200.0,30800.0,26400.0,25200.0,26700.0,28900.0,30200.0,31800.0,27400.0,25800.0,28100.0,31200.0,33300.0,32700.0,28600.0,26300.0,28400.0,30800.0,32400.0,34000.0,30400.0,28600.0,31200.0,34600.0,37300.0,36700.0,32800.0,30400.0,33100.0,35900.0,37700.0,39400.0,36800.0,34900.0,39200.0,42100.0,40400.0,36900.0,34600.0,35300.0,38000.0,70000.0,430000.0,132000.0,98000.0,73500.0,65800.0,72400.0,78200.0,81600.0,67900.0,61700.0,68400.0,81500.0,94000.0,74300.0,76400.0,68900.0,71800.0,105000.0,87300.0,91500.0,72800.0,205000.0,111000.0,86500.0,96000.0,83200.0,79800.0,71600.0,74200.0,80600.0,86400.0,119000.0,88500.0,75600.0,79800.0,88900.0,101500.0,87300.0,84200.0,76800.0,79400.0,86700.0,91500.0,86000.0,85500.0,77400.0,80900.0,90800.0,100500.0,92000.0,90500.0,82100.0,84600.0,128000.0,100500.0,98000.0,88200.0,81400.0,85000.0,93800.0,106000.0,96500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,5200.0,6500.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[6900.0,10800.0,8400.0,9000.0,9500.0,15400.0,7700.0,7100.0,8300.0,8500.0,7900.0,7200.0,7500.0,11200.0,8800.0,9400.0,10100.0,14300.0,8300.0,7700.0,8900.0,9200.0,8100.0,7500.0,7900.0,11800.0,9200.0,10000.0,10700.0,15500.0,8800.0,8200.0,9600.0,9800.0,8700.0,8000.0,8400.0,12600.0,9800.0,10800.0,11400.0,16700.0,9100.0,8500.0,10100.0,10600.0,9300.0,8700.0,24300.0,14200.0,10800.0,11800.0,12900.0,18800.0,10800.0,9700.0,10800.0,11500.0,10300.0,9700.0,10300.0,15200.0,12100.0,13000.0,14600.0,19700.0,11800.0,10700.0,11800.0,29600.0,12900.0,10700.0,10700.0,15800.0,12400.0,14000.0,15600.0,20800.0,12400.0,11200.0,12300.0,12900.0,11700.0,10600.0,11200.0,16800.0,12900.0,14600.0,16200.0,28700.0,17300.0,13100.0,13600.0,14000.0,12200.0,11100.0,10900.0,16100.0,12900.0,14300.0,15900.0,20100.0,11800.0,10900.0,12500.0,13300.0,11800.0,10700.0,10600.0,15600.0,12400.0,13700.0,15000.0,19100.0,11300.0,10400.0,12000.0,12600.0,11300.0,10400.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[13200.0,14900.0,13700.0,14200.0,14500.0,16100.0,13900.0,11900.0,11600.0,12800.0,12400.0,13500.0,12800.0,15100.0,13300.0,13900.0,14400.0,15700.0,13600.0,11800.0,11500.0,12600.0,12300.0,13200.0,12500.0,14600.0,13100.0,13700.0,14100.0,15300.0,13200.0,11400.0,11200.0,12100.0,11900.0,12800.0,12100.0,14300.0,12800.0,13400.0,13900.0,14900.0,12900.0,11000.0,10800.0,11700.0,11500.0,12300.0,12700.0,14600.0,15800.0,23100.0,35400.0,21600.0,15800.0,13800.0,12500.0,13900.0,13400.0,14100.0,13300.0,15100.0,13600.0,14000.0,14600.0,15800.0,13800.0,11900.0,11600.0,21800.0,15100.0,15600.0,13100.0,14800.0,13200.0,13600.0,13900.0,15100.0,13000.0,11300.0,10800.0,11900.0,11400.0,12100.0,12400.0,14400.0,12900.0,13300.0,13800.0,14600.0,12700.0,10800.0,10300.0,11200.0,10900.0,11700.0,11900.0,14000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14400.0,12400.0,10500.0,10100.0,11000.0,10700.0,11500.0,11900.0,21800.0,13900.0,13300.0,13700.0,14700.0,12600.0,10800.0,10400.0,11300.0,11000.0,11700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0]}},{"title":"Teruo Nakamura","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Teruo Nakamura\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[13546,10464,17760,11928,12259,12663,10195,12683,12998,10008,13819,13130,20815,10882,14338,13962,21166,13591,14300,22155,10804,15268,17018,11770,17340,10553,14140,12129,11434,10156,15205,13253,11533,11711,12872,14617,23118,14247,17850,17761,15685,16671,16661,18008,18739,16002,16503,17908,23146,16192,23150,19409,20240,17076,18784,32430,16228,13862,23911,17992,19995,26544,26786,18968,18340,21309,27185,19041,16272,15479,22179,14671,28262,19179,33891,22465,26809,23470,22174,17969,22491,18865,20341,19897,30099,20154,18310,14870,18625,16357,17539,25002,15029,13660,17078,24545,36883,14690,17762,20510,35743,22986,13862,15581,12555,14326,11973,12660,16262,12626,14470,16081,16105,18615,15182,16457,11428,12136,13265,11700],"flat_reference_value":16963.657630591948,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2800.0,2400.0,2600.0,2300.0,2500.0,2700.0,3100.0,3800.0,3000.0,2600.0,2800.0,4300.0,3000.0,2500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,3200.0,4000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,4600.0,3200.0,2800.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3500.0,4300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,5000.0,3500.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,3800.0,4600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3700.0,7000.0,4200.0,3400.0,3800.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,5600.0,4200.0,3800.0,3900.0,5600.0,4000.0,3400.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4100.0,5000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,5500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3900.0,4200.0,5100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,5700.0,4100.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,4300.0,5200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,6000.0,4300.0,3800.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,5500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4800.0,11000.0,5500.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,4700.0,6500.0,4800.0,4100.0,4300.0,6500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[5200.0,4700.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,4600.0,4900.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,6400.0,5400.0,4800.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,6700.0,5600.0,4900.0,5500.0,5200.0,5300.0,5100.0,9400.0,8100.0,6000.0,5700.0,5500.0,7100.0,6000.0,5300.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,5500.0,5900.0,6100.0,5700.0,5900.0,5800.0,7400.0,6300.0,5700.0,6500.0,7400.0,7600.0,7000.0,7200.0,7500.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,8500.0,7400.0,6600.0,7300.0,6900.0,7100.0,7500.0,8800.0,8200.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,9100.0,7800.0,6900.0,7500.0,7200.0,7400.0,9600.0,8700.0,7900.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,8800.0,7600.0,6700.0,7300.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,7200.0,7400.0,6800.0,7000.0,6700.0,8400.0,7100.0,6400.0,6800.0,6500.0,6700.0,6300.0,6600.0,6800.0,6400.0,6600.0,6500.0,13500.0,7800.0,6200.0,6600.0,6300.0,6400.0,6000.0,6300.0,6500.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,7800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[6820.0,6150.0,7240.0,6910.0,17850.0,8120.0,7430.0,8290.0,7650.0,7110.0,7380.0,8940.0,7520.0,6890.0,8100.0,7420.0,7860.0,7230.0,7690.0,8410.0,8150.0,16400.0,8950.0,9230.0,8120.0,7480.0,8730.0,8200.0,8610.0,7940.0,8350.0,9120.0,8440.0,8050.0,8870.0,9810.0,8540.0,7630.0,8920.0,8310.0,8750.0,8140.0,8490.0,9320.0,8650.0,8210.0,8980.0,10450.0,8760.0,8240.0,11320.0,13450.0,12100.0,9870.0,9240.0,9810.0,8930.0,8620.0,9150.0,10220.0,9410.0,8320.0,9150.0,8740.0,8910.0,8250.0,22400.0,11200.0,8780.0,8390.0,8850.0,9740.0,8920.0,7950.0,8840.0,8190.0,8510.0,7820.0,8230.0,8960.0,8140.0,7980.0,8410.0,9530.0,8470.0,7680.0,8590.0,8110.0,8420.0,7790.0,8150.0,8740.0,8020.0,8280.0,8610.0,9880.0,8720.0,8030.0,14210.0,9480.0,8890.0,8150.0,8520.0,9210.0,8460.0,8630.0,10150.0,24800.0,11350.0,8420.0,8910.0,8260.0,8540.0,7980.0,8310.0,8890.0,8170.0,8340.0,8720.0,9850.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4600.0,4300.0,3800.0,4000.0,5200.0,3900.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,4300.0,4000.0,3600.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,4800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,4100.0,3800.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3900.0,3700.0,3400.0,3800.0,4200.0,3900.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3800.0,3600.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3400.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3500.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,3300.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,3200.0,2900.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[19000.0,17000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16000.0,17500.0,21000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17500.0,19000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16000.0,34000.0,17000.0,17500.0,19000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,18000.0,19000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,18000.0,19500.0,27000.0,17000.0,16500.0,18000.0,19500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,20000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,19000.0,21000.0,19000.0,21000.0,25000.0,26000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,23000.0,23000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,19500.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,20000.0,21000.0,18500.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,19000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3912.0,3677.0,3854.0,3701.0,3816.0,3632.0,3510.0,3594.0,3777.0,3712.0,3621.0,3688.0,3715.0,3480.0,3596.0,3512.0,3620.0,3415.0,3390.0,3527.0,3511.0,3423.0,3318.0,3396.0,3404.0,3212.0,3287.0,3205.0,3316.0,3178.0,3092.0,3221.0,3186.0,3120.0,3013.0,3164.0,3108.0,2896.0,3012.0,2985.0,2968.0,2903.0,2881.0,2994.0,2977.0,2902.0,2814.0,2961.0,2903.0,2781.0,3042.0,3210.0,3017.0,2912.0,2896.0,3764.0,3128.0,2814.0,2796.0,2883.0,2817.0,2624.0,2705.0,2618.0,2692.0,2603.0,3380.0,5920.0,4136.0,3572.0,3214.0,3140.0,3186.0,2994.0,3107.0,2812.0,2790.0,2688.0,2592.0,2704.0,2696.0,2511.0,2497.0,2583.0,2596.0,2294.0,2387.0,2281.0,2306.0,2189.0,2181.0,2287.0,2281.0,2189.0,2103.0,2284.0,2387.0,2094.0,2183.0,2088.0,2160.0,2081.0,2096.0,2174.0,2189.0,2087.0,2161.0,5482.0,3114.0,1987.0,2093.0,1994.0,2081.0,1986.0,1981.0,2984.0,3096.0,1988.0,1887.0,2074.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[212.0,198.0,205.0,189.0,194.0,182.0,171.0,175.0,201.0,208.0,196.0,188.0,225.0,201.0,218.0,197.0,205.0,192.0,181.0,189.0,210.0,222.0,208.0,199.0,230.0,205.0,222.0,201.0,211.0,195.0,184.0,190.0,214.0,226.0,212.0,203.0,235.0,210.0,228.0,207.0,215.0,412.0,189.0,196.0,219.0,231.0,217.0,208.0,242.0,238.0,312.0,358.0,321.0,247.0,232.0,238.0,267.0,275.0,261.0,249.0,272.0,251.0,269.0,255.0,260.0,248.0,262.0,285.0,312.0,648.0,492.0,385.0,314.0,276.0,291.0,272.0,281.0,262.0,249.0,257.0,285.0,298.0,283.0,270.0,298.0,272.0,295.0,278.0,286.0,269.0,256.0,263.0,292.0,305.0,289.0,276.0,308.0,282.0,302.0,285.0,293.0,278.0,265.0,272.0,301.0,315.0,298.0,1124.0,468.0,312.0,328.0,305.0,314.0,298.0,283.0,290.0,322.0,335.0,318.0,304.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2750.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2550.0,2700.0,3050.0,2900.0,2750.0,2650.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2850.0,2950.0,2850.0,2700.0,2850.0,3200.0,3050.0,2900.0,2800.0,3350.0,3050.0,2850.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2850.0,3000.0,3350.0,3200.0,3050.0,2950.0,3500.0,3150.0,3000.0,3150.0,3250.0,3150.0,3000.0,3150.0,3500.0,3350.0,3200.0,3100.0,4200.0,3350.0,3150.0,3300.0,3450.0,3350.0,3150.0,3350.0,4300.0,4100.0,3350.0,3250.0,3850.0,3450.0,3300.0,3450.0,3550.0,3450.0,3300.0,3500.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,4050.0,3650.0,3450.0,3600.0,3750.0,3650.0,3450.0,3700.0,4150.0,3950.0,3700.0,3550.0,4250.0,3850.0,3650.0,3800.0,3950.0,3850.0,3650.0,3850.0,4350.0,4150.0,3900.0,3750.0,4450.0,4050.0,3850.0,4050.0,4200.0,4100.0,3850.0,4100.0,4650.0,4450.0,4200.0,4800.0,12800.0,5100.0,4300.0,4250.0,4350.0,4250.0,4050.0,4250.0,4750.0,4550.0,4300.0,4150.0,4900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[780.0,660.0,710.0,690.0,720.0,840.0,700.0,650.0,690.0,710.0,740.0,1850.0,840.0,710.0,760.0,740.0,770.0,900.0,750.0,700.0,740.0,760.0,800.0,2000.0,900.0,760.0,810.0,790.0,820.0,960.0,800.0,750.0,790.0,810.0,850.0,2150.0,960.0,810.0,860.0,840.0,870.0,1020.0,850.0,800.0,840.0,860.0,900.0,2300.0,1020.0,860.0,910.0,890.0,920.0,1080.0,900.0,850.0,890.0,910.0,950.0,2450.0,1080.0,910.0,960.0,940.0,970.0,1140.0,950.0,900.0,940.0,960.0,1000.0,2600.0,1140.0,960.0,1010.0,990.0,1020.0,1200.0,1000.0,950.0,990.0,1010.0,1050.0,2750.0,1200.0,1010.0,1060.0,1040.0,1070.0,1260.0,1050.0,1000.0,1040.0,1060.0,1100.0,2900.0,1260.0,1060.0,1110.0,1090.0,1120.0,1320.0,1100.0,1050.0,1090.0,1110.0,1150.0,16500.0,2800.0,1100.0,1160.0,1140.0,1170.0,1380.0,1150.0,1100.0,1140.0,1160.0,1200.0,3100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[68.0,62.0,74.0,71.0,76.0,70.0,82.0,118.0,85.0,78.0,73.0,69.0,72.0,68.0,80.0,77.0,82.0,76.0,88.0,125.0,90.0,83.0,78.0,74.0,78.0,72.0,86.0,82.0,88.0,81.0,94.0,134.0,96.0,88.0,81.0,77.0,84.0,78.0,92.0,89.0,95.0,88.0,102.0,148.0,103.0,95.0,89.0,84.0,88.0,85.0,132.0,138.0,125.0,105.0,118.0,165.0,112.0,102.0,96.0,90.0,95.0,89.0,105.0,100.0,106.0,98.0,112.0,158.0,115.0,122.0,128.0,110.0,100.0,94.0,110.0,105.0,112.0,103.0,118.0,168.0,120.0,110.0,102.0,96.0,96.0,90.0,105.0,100.0,107.0,99.0,113.0,160.0,115.0,106.0,98.0,93.0,102.0,96.0,112.0,107.0,114.0,105.0,121.0,172.0,124.0,114.0,108.0,165.0,108.0,101.0,118.0,112.0,120.0,110.0,128.0,210.0,138.0,124.0,115.0,108.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[6900.0,3550.0,3900.0,3750.0,3850.0,3600.0,4050.0,5600.0,4450.0,3500.0,4250.0,7500.0,6700.0,3450.0,3800.0,3600.0,3750.0,3550.0,3950.0,5650.0,4200.0,3400.0,4100.0,5250.0,6400.0,3350.0,3700.0,3550.0,3650.0,3400.0,3850.0,5350.0,4250.0,3300.0,4000.0,5100.0,6350.0,3250.0,3550.0,3450.0,3600.0,3300.0,3700.0,5400.0,3950.0,3250.0,3900.0,4950.0,6200.0,3150.0,4150.0,3950.0,4200.0,3800.0,3650.0,7000.0,4600.0,3150.0,3800.0,4800.0,6000.0,3050.0,3350.0,3250.0,3400.0,3100.0,3550.0,5050.0,3700.0,3050.0,3650.0,4700.0,5800.0,3550.0,3600.0,3750.0,3150.0,3050.0,3400.0,4850.0,3600.0,2950.0,3550.0,4550.0,5650.0,2900.0,3150.0,3050.0,3100.0,2950.0,3300.0,4700.0,3500.0,2850.0,3450.0,4400.0,18000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,3050.0,2900.0,3250.0,4650.0,3450.0,2800.0,3400.0,4300.0,5350.0,2750.0,3000.0,2900.0,2950.0,2800.0,4000.0,9000.0,5200.0,2750.0,3300.0,4200.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[560.0,520.0,610.0,2330.0,680.0,690.0,650.0,680.0,710.0,640.0,580.0,530.0,520.0,480.0,560.0,590.0,630.0,640.0,620.0,630.0,1090.0,600.0,540.0,500.0,500.0,460.0,540.0,560.0,600.0,610.0,590.0,600.0,630.0,570.0,520.0,480.0,470.0,440.0,510.0,540.0,570.0,590.0,560.0,570.0,600.0,550.0,490.0,460.0,480.0,450.0,520.0,550.0,580.0,590.0,570.0,1130.0,590.0,560.0,500.0,470.0,460.0,430.0,500.0,770.0,560.0,570.0,550.0,560.0,580.0,530.0,480.0,440.0,440.0,410.0,470.0,500.0,730.0,540.0,520.0,530.0,550.0,500.0,460.0,420.0,410.0,390.0,450.0,470.0,500.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,510.0,480.0,430.0,400.0,390.0,370.0,420.0,440.0,470.0,480.0,460.0,470.0,660.0,450.0,410.0,380.0,370.0,350.0,400.0,420.0,450.0,460.0,440.0,450.0,460.0,430.0,390.0,360.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[520.0,480.0,500.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,480.0,520.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,520.0,480.0,450.0,470.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,450.0,470.0,440.0,430.0,450.0,490.0,460.0,430.0,450.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,430.0,450.0,420.0,410.0,430.0,470.0,450.0,420.0,440.0,410.0,400.0,390.0,420.0,450.0,430.0,410.0,420.0,460.0,440.0,420.0,430.0,450.0,430.0,420.0,440.0,500.0,470.0,430.0,420.0,450.0,470.0,440.0,450.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,430.0,460.0,430.0,420.0,430.0,460.0,440.0,420.0,440.0,410.0,400.0,390.0,420.0,440.0,420.0,410.0,420.0,450.0,430.0,410.0,430.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,410.0,430.0,410.0,400.0,410.0,440.0,420.0,400.0,420.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,400.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,400.0,430.0,410.0,390.0,410.0,380.0,380.0,370.0,400.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,400.0,430.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[63.0,54.0,60.0,57.0,54.0,57.0,72.0,99.0,78.0,75.0,57.0,48.0,66.0,57.0,63.0,60.0,57.0,60.0,76.0,104.0,82.0,79.0,60.0,50.0,71.0,61.0,68.0,65.0,61.0,65.0,82.0,112.0,88.0,85.0,65.0,54.0,77.0,66.0,125.0,95.0,66.0,69.0,88.0,120.0,95.0,91.0,69.0,58.0,84.0,72.0,80.0,76.0,72.0,76.0,96.0,420.0,250.0,180.0,76.0,64.0,80.0,68.0,76.0,72.0,68.0,72.0,91.0,125.0,99.0,95.0,72.0,61.0,84.0,72.0,80.0,76.0,72.0,76.0,96.0,132.0,104.0,100.0,76.0,64.0,90.0,77.0,86.0,82.0,77.0,82.0,103.0,142.0,112.0,108.0,82.0,69.0,105.0,90.0,100.0,95.0,90.0,95.0,500.0,300.0,180.0,140.0,95.0,80.0,121.0,104.0,115.0,109.0,104.0,109.0,138.0,400.0,250.0,500.0,150.0,120.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[118.0,109.0,127.0,121.0,135.0,130.0,144.0,202.0,139.0,128.0,135.0,152.0,125.0,116.0,130.0,128.0,141.0,134.0,147.0,216.0,142.0,139.0,130.0,165.0,121.0,115.0,128.0,119.0,132.0,126.0,138.0,194.0,133.0,127.0,124.0,148.0,130.0,119.0,141.0,132.0,145.0,138.0,157.0,230.0,150.0,144.0,139.0,170.0,137.0,129.0,140.0,145.0,153.0,161.0,185.0,338.0,169.0,156.0,149.0,175.0,140.0,130.0,147.0,138.0,153.0,146.0,160.0,225.0,158.0,149.0,145.0,171.0,143.0,135.0,151.0,141.0,157.0,149.0,168.0,244.0,165.0,156.0,152.0,180.0,150.0,139.0,159.0,150.0,168.0,162.0,184.0,271.0,178.0,168.0,164.0,195.0,163.0,151.0,176.0,165.0,183.0,174.0,199.0,302.0,190.0,187.0,215.0,620.0,190.0,177.0,205.0,190.0,210.0,203.0,239.0,445.0,210.0,205.0,198.0,230.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[326.0,322.0,326.0,310.0,310.0,295.0,280.0,310.0,295.0,310.0,310.0,280.0,305.0,300.0,302.0,290.0,288.0,275.0,262.0,288.0,275.0,290.0,286.0,262.0,273.0,269.0,271.0,260.0,258.0,247.0,234.0,258.0,247.0,260.0,256.0,234.0,252.0,248.0,250.0,240.0,238.0,228.0,216.0,238.0,228.0,240.0,236.0,216.0,262.0,258.0,265.0,262.0,258.0,240.0,228.0,252.0,240.0,250.0,246.0,228.0,231.0,227.0,229.0,220.0,218.0,209.0,198.0,218.0,209.0,220.0,216.0,198.0,210.0,206.0,208.0,200.0,198.0,190.0,180.0,198.0,190.0,200.0,196.0,180.0,200.0,196.0,198.0,190.0,188.0,180.0,171.0,188.0,180.0,190.0,186.0,171.0,189.0,185.0,187.0,180.0,178.0,171.0,162.0,178.0,171.0,180.0,176.0,162.0,178.0,175.0,177.0,170.0,168.0,162.0,153.0,168.0,162.0,170.0,166.0,153.0]}},{"title":"Henry Cejudo","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Henry Cejudo\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[10073,30709,45246,114772,11627,7594,10765,19866,33690,15519,20921,46413,8500,5638,13896,21728,28611,8920,8508,9550,49320,16933,19925,44376,9386,11075,8742,11090,10077,25459,42427,219179,26961,62228,48512,42757,326406,46326,58414,63605,38964,262712,75987,92120,72954,60497,53287,87157,76431,74123,109008,106197,509207,158429,125898,64213,46914,78173,70389,67002,57807,65496,118508,84538,75527,61518,108782,89846,53452,61483,47185,54267,117174,31085,57796,102867,39293,31598,79655,67934,45387,77324,54990,45227,51195,69581,158801,139610,413918,36147,38001,75844,33221,32663,31871,38741,41324,209722,45437,33149,22430,23788,25808,37259,59798,21975,32491,42731,54342,159631,28637,31057,26724,41611,37770,32997,18275,44636,40843,149527],"flat_reference_value":16879.207909813224,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[12000.0,11000.0,14000.0,52000.0,21000.0,13000.0,14000.0,22000.0,13000.0,13000.0,19000.0,46000.0,16000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,14000.0,17000.0,47000.0,18000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,19000.0,29000.0,155000.0,49000.0,34000.0,35000.0,47000.0,190000.0,68000.0,46000.0,45000.0,69000.0,250000.0,92000.0,61000.0,50000.0,47000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,44000.0,42000.0,54000.0,290000.0,81000.0,57000.0,49000.0,44000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,35000.0,32000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,39000.0,39000.0,32000.0,33000.0,37000.0,34000.0,42000.0,35000.0,34000.0,41000.0,41000.0,50000.0,82000.0,270000.0,78000.0,53000.0,59000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,55000.0,170000.0,57000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,44000.0,155000.0,57000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[15200.0,16800.0,24500.0,115000.0,28400.0,17900.0,21300.0,48600.0,26100.0,22400.0,29800.0,68500.0,19400.0,16700.0,18200.0,21500.0,24900.0,16300.0,17800.0,22100.0,51200.0,58400.0,29600.0,72300.0,23800.0,19500.0,20400.0,21900.0,23100.0,26800.0,49500.0,285000.0,46200.0,35800.0,48900.0,56400.0,385000.0,64200.0,49800.0,47500.0,68900.0,345000.0,69400.0,54200.0,46800.0,43500.0,42100.0,48600.0,52400.0,55800.0,58200.0,74500.0,520000.0,78400.0,54600.0,49200.0,44800.0,46500.0,39800.0,41200.0,44600.0,41900.0,47800.0,53400.0,40200.0,42500.0,58900.0,79500.0,39400.0,37600.0,46800.0,38900.0,51200.0,38400.0,39600.0,48500.0,43200.0,41800.0,45600.0,39200.0,36800.0,42400.0,37500.0,39800.0,44200.0,48900.0,76500.0,94200.0,365000.0,62400.0,46800.0,49500.0,35200.0,33800.0,34600.0,38400.0,58900.0,245000.0,48200.0,36500.0,32400.0,31800.0,45600.0,68400.0,33200.0,30500.0,31900.0,34800.0,48600.0,175000.0,44200.0,56800.0,29400.0,28100.0,27500.0,28900.0,27200.0,34600.0,49800.0,182000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[18200.0,21400.0,38600.0,185000.0,46200.0,24100.0,19800.0,22300.0,19500.0,21000.0,34800.0,68400.0,24500.0,19200.0,17800.0,18600.0,23400.0,19100.0,18400.0,26200.0,54100.0,24800.0,31200.0,49600.0,23800.0,21500.0,24200.0,22100.0,27900.0,34500.0,61200.0,515000.0,112000.0,58400.0,74100.0,86300.0,685000.0,124000.0,92500.0,96800.0,162000.0,625000.0,141000.0,89400.0,69200.0,63500.0,58700.0,78200.0,68400.0,79500.0,62300.0,115000.0,748000.0,138000.0,69200.0,49500.0,44100.0,39600.0,34200.0,33800.0,36200.0,32100.0,35400.0,38200.0,42500.0,37100.0,34800.0,33200.0,36500.0,41200.0,38400.0,32900.0,34500.0,31800.0,33100.0,56400.0,44200.0,38100.0,36500.0,34200.0,35800.0,41200.0,38600.0,37400.0,46200.0,59500.0,71800.0,118000.0,426000.0,79200.0,48500.0,39100.0,34600.0,33800.0,39500.0,44200.0,68500.0,238000.0,54200.0,34100.0,29800.0,27400.0,26800.0,25900.0,33500.0,24900.0,23600.0,22800.0,24500.0,23800.0,22400.0,21900.0,22600.0,21500.0,20800.0,21200.0,22100.0,20900.0,20400.0,21000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[22000.0,21000.0,28000.0,70000.0,30000.0,22000.0,22000.0,35000.0,20000.0,19000.0,24000.0,48000.0,24000.0,20000.0,22000.0,45000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,24000.0,50000.0,26000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,28000.0,50000.0,260000.0,80000.0,65000.0,70000.0,90000.0,210000.0,90000.0,75000.0,70000.0,95000.0,240000.0,90000.0,75000.0,70000.0,75000.0,70000.0,80000.0,75000.0,70000.0,80000.0,110000.0,300000.0,110000.0,80000.0,70000.0,60000.0,60000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,50000.0,55000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,45000.0,42000.0,45000.0,50000.0,55000.0,70000.0,90000.0,180000.0,60000.0,50000.0,55000.0,45000.0,45000.0,48000.0,55000.0,70000.0,130000.0,55000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,48000.0,50000.0,85000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,45000.0,55000.0,110000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[35000.0,38000.0,50000.0,260000.0,55000.0,35000.0,35000.0,60000.0,40000.0,40000.0,45000.0,130000.0,40000.0,32000.0,32000.0,38000.0,55000.0,32000.0,35000.0,45000.0,110000.0,40000.0,45000.0,120000.0,45000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,45000.0,55000.0,90000.0,620000.0,130000.0,110000.0,95000.0,140000.0,720000.0,170000.0,150000.0,130000.0,190000.0,850000.0,200000.0,160000.0,130000.0,120000.0,110000.0,130000.0,120000.0,130000.0,130000.0,160000.0,950000.0,180000.0,160000.0,130000.0,110000.0,110000.0,90000.0,90000.0,95000.0,85000.0,100000.0,95000.0,85000.0,85000.0,100000.0,80000.0,85000.0,85000.0,80000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,110000.0,85000.0,85000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,95000.0,75000.0,80000.0,90000.0,100000.0,150000.0,140000.0,620000.0,100000.0,90000.0,95000.0,75000.0,75000.0,70000.0,80000.0,100000.0,400000.0,110000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,65000.0,65000.0,75000.0,70000.0,65000.0,70000.0,80000.0,300000.0,85000.0,60000.0,65000.0,60000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,65000.0,80000.0,260000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[30000.0,34000.0,42000.0,155000.0,58000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,29000.0,70000.0,38000.0,29000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,28000.0,30000.0,52000.0,42000.0,295000.0,105000.0,62000.0,55000.0,56000.0,275000.0,98000.0,62000.0,52000.0,55000.0,255000.0,98000.0,52000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,48000.0,64000.0,88000.0,105000.0,315000.0,125000.0,78000.0,44000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,38000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,36000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,42000.0,46000.0,48000.0,72000.0,82000.0,95000.0,305000.0,118000.0,68000.0,48000.0,44000.0,52000.0,58000.0,66000.0,88000.0,265000.0,105000.0,58000.0,44000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,44000.0,48000.0,44000.0,44000.0,68000.0,235000.0,88000.0,54000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9000.0,9500.0,11000.0,35000.0,12000.0,10000.0,11000.0,14000.0,9000.0,10000.0,11000.0,28000.0,12000.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,10000.0,25000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,15000.0,30000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,14000.0,16000.0,25000.0,135000.0,35000.0,25000.0,22000.0,25000.0,165000.0,40000.0,30000.0,35000.0,50000.0,190000.0,60000.0,40000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,25000.0,28000.0,30000.0,35000.0,260000.0,90000.0,35000.0,28000.0,25000.0,22000.0,25000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,25000.0,24000.0,18000.0,18000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,20000.0,28000.0,25000.0,22000.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,28000.0,35000.0,45000.0,80000.0,310000.0,90000.0,40000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,35000.0,60000.0,180000.0,50000.0,30000.0,25000.0,22000.0,28000.0,26000.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,25000.0,45000.0,110000.0,35000.0,20000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[15000.0,12000.0,32000.0,130000.0,34000.0,15000.0,13000.0,48000.0,18000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,15000.0,62000.0,22000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,16000.0,52000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,26000.0,48000.0,520000.0,95000.0,52000.0,42000.0,48000.0,470000.0,92000.0,55000.0,62000.0,78000.0,390000.0,76000.0,55000.0,58000.0,50000.0,48000.0,58000.0,62000.0,68000.0,92000.0,110000.0,620000.0,98000.0,62000.0,52000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,45000.0,48000.0,42000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,52000.0,42000.0,55000.0,95000.0,65000.0,58000.0,68000.0,80000.0,85000.0,72000.0,420000.0,68000.0,42000.0,36000.0,38000.0,45000.0,48000.0,42000.0,45000.0,58000.0,195000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,45000.0,135000.0,52000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[5200.0,5600.0,7800.0,62000.0,24000.0,8500.0,6500.0,6200.0,7000.0,5800.0,6500.0,26000.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,8000.0,7500.0,7800.0,9000.0,24000.0,10000.0,11000.0,32000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,18000.0,125000.0,38000.0,14000.0,12000.0,13000.0,95000.0,30000.0,13000.0,14000.0,22000.0,115000.0,36000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,15000.0,16000.0,22000.0,190000.0,45000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,9500.0,11000.0,18000.0,14000.0,16000.0,18000.0,30000.0,175000.0,42000.0,18000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,22000.0,115000.0,30000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,16000.0,105000.0,26000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[21000.0,19000.0,22000.0,46000.0,32000.0,48000.0,28000.0,30000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,18500.0,16500.0,15500.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17500.0,20500.0,38500.0,22000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15500.0,18000.0,17500.0,19000.0,20000.0,23000.0,26000.0,34000.0,215000.0,85000.0,42000.0,38000.0,45000.0,185000.0,95000.0,65000.0,48000.0,52000.0,150000.0,75000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,35500.0,48000.0,175000.0,85000.0,26000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16500.0,15500.0,16500.0,18000.0,19000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,26000.0,42000.0,155000.0,65000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,95000.0,52000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,32000.0,88000.0,42000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,30000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4200.0,4600.0,7200.0,120000.0,24000.0,16000.0,14000.0,17500.0,12800.0,12000.0,17000.0,95000.0,21000.0,15500.0,14200.0,20000.0,70000.0,22000.0,15800.0,14600.0,14000.0,13800.0,14200.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18500.0,19500.0,21000.0,34000.0,170000.0,30000.0,23000.0,42000.0,320000.0,210000.0,42000.0,34000.0,30000.0,40000.0,155000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,70000.0,450000.0,68000.0,34000.0,29000.0,26000.0,24000.0,22500.0,22000.0,20500.0,19800.0,19400.0,19000.0,19000.0,19400.0,27000.0,30000.0,20500.0,19500.0,19000.0,19400.0,18500.0,17800.0,17400.0,17000.0,16800.0,16800.0,17200.0,16800.0,16400.0,16400.0,16000.0,16000.0,15800.0,15400.0,15000.0,14800.0,14600.0,14800.0,26000.0,16200.0,15200.0,15600.0,23000.0,42000.0,58000.0,80000.0,28000.0,19500.0,17000.0,15800.0,32000.0,28000.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,15600.0,15400.0,15000.0,14800.0,14800.0,15200.0,18500.0,24000.0,30000.0,19500.0,16500.0,15400.0,15000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[700.0,8500.0,6200.0,3000.0,3300.0,3800.0,36000.0,22000.0,6200.0,5200.0,5700.0,34000.0,17500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7500.0,7000.0,7800.0,8500.0,23000.0,10500.0,8500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8200.0,8500.0,9000.0,9200.0,9600.0,10500.0,43000.0,16500.0,11000.0,9500.0,9200.0,9500.0,11000.0,29000.0,16500.0,13000.0,11500.0,11200.0,25000.0,27500.0,14500.0,12000.0,14500.0,16500.0,14000.0,22000.0,19000.0,35000.0,18500.0,17000.0,60000.0,26000.0,18500.0,17000.0,22500.0,42000.0,165000.0,65000.0,34000.0,29000.0,26000.0,29000.0,46000.0,31000.0,38000.0,185000.0,67000.0,46000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,28500.0,29500.0,35000.0,82000.0,45000.0,36000.0,31500.0,36000.0,42000.0,70000.0,130000.0,60000.0,40000.0,35500.0,128000.0,65000.0,45000.0,40500.0,40000.0,50000.0,160000.0,73000.0,50000.0,52000.0,43000.0,39500.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,46000.0,62000.0,190000.0,72000.0,57000.0,50000.0,47000.0,43500.0,40500.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,47000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,14000.0,40000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,18000.0,22000.0,30000.0,45000.0,50000.0,40000.0,30000.0,42000.0,90000.0,65000.0,50000.0,45000.0,75000.0,60000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,45000.0,42000.0,50000.0,45000.0,120000.0,75000.0,60000.0,80000.0,55000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,28000.0,25000.0,42000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,24000.0,28000.0,30000.0,32000.0,38000.0,42000.0,60000.0,95000.0,50000.0,36000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[9800.0,4100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3600.0,4300.0,3700.0,4800.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3900.0,3500.0,7200.0,4100.0,3400.0,3700.0,12100.0,5400.0,8300.0,4000.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,4200.0,4300.0,5100.0,8300.0,78000.0,17600.0,9700.0,52000.0,11500.0,6300.0,5600.0,6100.0,5700.0,5300.0,7600.0,5900.0,6600.0,134000.0,25400.0,11100.0,8700.0,7900.0,7300.0,46500.0,7800.0,7100.0,9600.0,169000.0,23400.0,10100.0,7900.0,7300.0,6500.0,6100.0,5700.0,5800.0,5200.0,4800.0,4500.0,5500.0,4300.0,4100.0,5100.0,10400.0,4900.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4000.0,3800.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,5100.0,7300.0,8600.0,6400.0,4500.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,4100.0,3800.0,3900.0,4300.0,4700.0,6200.0,5100.0,4500.0,4900.0,8300.0,10700.0,6400.0,5100.0,4900.0,5900.0,7300.0,11200.0,12900.0,7000.0,9400.0,112000.0,22600.0,14900.0,23600.0,11800.0,9500.0,8600.0,81000.0,19400.0,11300.0,8700.0,7500.0,6800.0,7100.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3200.0,2800.0,3000.0,3400.0,15000.0,4500.0,3300.0,3000.0,2800.0,3500.0,3200.0,4200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,9000.0,4500.0,4300.0,5000.0,25000.0,8000.0,6500.0,6000.0,35000.0,9000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,6000.0,5500.0,6500.0,7500.0,65000.0,18000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,9000.0,18000.0,95000.0,24000.0,12000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7500.0,6500.0,6000.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,17000.0,55000.0,13000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,13000.0,45000.0,16000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,10000.0,25000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2300.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,3000.0,3300.0,3500.0,3800.0,4000.0,4500.0,5000.0,26000.0,14000.0,9000.0,7000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,6000.0,22000.0,11000.0,8000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0]}},{"title":"Duncan James","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Duncan James\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15379,20649,23852,17107,18370,14412,13883,26397,17196,15507,19438,24303,40516,25094,26082,21900,19120,21074,32711,16424,13978,20065,33923,18086,24736,13486,18147,30597,20004,14160,17085,22348,32520,22362,16023,15081,13982,14915,23277,14691,15941,25949,40107,32552,17700,77016,19267,21066,16366,13548,14403,26469,23710,16153,25597,13355,11035,11837,16821,22360,16326,40584,63737,16678,21105,20928,15113,178084,33996,27380,15496,35062,20130,14517,14956,13818,17199,42418,39114,24326,17313,27557,21384,36269,42786,14868,12726,17217,18052,21596,19594,25397,27985,27315,16978,62987,22609,18993,16405,27082,24239,17219,15934,14555,15301,21363,47395,24213,44620,30129,22697,14668,17549,13038,12948,16259,20275,14586,20539,22960],"flat_reference_value":16942.703870995338,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6100.0,5600.0,5900.0,6800.0,7200.0,8400.0,9100.0,8700.0,10500.0,11200.0,9600.0,8900.0,9900.0,9200.0,10500.0,10900.0,10200.0,9800.0,10300.0,10100.0,11200.0,14500.0,15800.0,12100.0,16000.0,13700.0,14900.0,17800.0,10800.0,8600.0,8100.0,7900.0,7600.0,8000.0,7500.0,7300.0,8200.0,6900.0,7200.0,7400.0,6800.0,7100.0,7200.0,6900.0,6600.0,7100.0,6700.0,6800.0,7300.0,6700.0,7200.0,7700.0,7500.0,6900.0,6800.0,6700.0,6400.0,6900.0,6700.0,7000.0,7800.0,7000.0,6900.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,7400.0,7800.0,7500.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,7600.0,7100.0,7600.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,8900.0,9200.0,11500.0,9800.0,10800.0,12500.0,8200.0,7100.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7600.0,7800.0,7500.0,7100.0,7400.0,7000.0,7300.0,8000.0,7200.0,7500.0,7700.0,7400.0,7900.0,8100.0,7800.0,7400.0,7700.0,7200.0,7500.0,8200.0,7300.0,7600.0,7800.0,7500.0,7900.0,8200.0,8000.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,7700.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[28500.0,25400.0,26100.0,25800.0,42000.0,48500.0,41200.0,53000.0,38400.0,34200.0,31500.0,33000.0,32800.0,29500.0,44000.0,46500.0,35200.0,31800.0,33400.0,34100.0,51000.0,47200.0,36500.0,34800.0,35600.0,31200.0,36800.0,42500.0,58000.0,34000.0,29800.0,28500.0,27400.0,28100.0,27900.0,30500.0,31200.0,26800.0,27500.0,26900.0,27200.0,28400.0,68000.0,36500.0,29400.0,31800.0,28500.0,31000.0,30400.0,27600.0,28200.0,45000.0,34500.0,27800.0,26500.0,25900.0,25200.0,26100.0,25800.0,27400.0,29500.0,28200.0,59000.0,34200.0,28900.0,27500.0,28800.0,64000.0,82000.0,39500.0,33200.0,34800.0,33500.0,28400.0,27900.0,31500.0,33800.0,30200.0,34600.0,41000.0,35400.0,43500.0,36200.0,44800.0,31500.0,26800.0,26200.0,27500.0,28100.0,26900.0,27400.0,26500.0,25800.0,26400.0,27100.0,29800.0,28200.0,24500.0,25100.0,32400.0,31800.0,25600.0,24800.0,24200.0,23500.0,25900.0,24600.0,27500.0,25800.0,22400.0,22900.0,23500.0,24100.0,23200.0,22800.0,22500.0,21900.0,22600.0,23100.0,25400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[22400.0,20800.0,21500.0,23100.0,32000.0,68400.0,61200.0,54300.0,38700.0,34200.0,31900.0,29600.0,32100.0,28400.0,33200.0,30500.0,29100.0,27800.0,26400.0,25900.0,31200.0,28300.0,27500.0,26100.0,27900.0,25200.0,29800.0,42100.0,58600.0,28400.0,24100.0,23500.0,22100.0,21300.0,20400.0,22800.0,22100.0,19800.0,21200.0,20300.0,22600.0,24800.0,76500.0,34100.0,22900.0,20500.0,19400.0,21800.0,20100.0,18900.0,17800.0,18200.0,19400.0,18500.0,19100.0,17900.0,17200.0,16800.0,17500.0,19300.0,18200.0,20500.0,18700.0,17400.0,19100.0,21300.0,22800.0,52100.0,71400.0,27300.0,23500.0,25200.0,22100.0,20400.0,21800.0,22600.0,27400.0,24900.0,23100.0,21800.0,22500.0,28600.0,31200.0,36700.0,24100.0,20800.0,21500.0,22300.0,24100.0,21400.0,19800.0,18600.0,17900.0,17200.0,18100.0,21500.0,20200.0,18400.0,18900.0,20100.0,21300.0,20800.0,19500.0,18100.0,17400.0,16900.0,17800.0,20600.0,19500.0,17800.0,18200.0,18900.0,20100.0,19400.0,18300.0,17500.0,16800.0,16400.0,17200.0,19800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9800.0,11500.0,9500.0,9600.0,9800.0,9200.0,9300.0,9500.0,10200.0,10000.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,10200.0,8600.0,8700.0,9500.0,11000.0,9500.0,8800.0,9200.0,9000.0,8300.0,8200.0,8000.0,9300.0,7800.0,7900.0,8000.0,7600.0,7700.0,7800.0,8400.0,8200.0,7500.0,7400.0,7300.0,8500.0,7200.0,7300.0,7400.0,7000.0,7100.0,7200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7000.0,7300.0,7800.0,7900.0,7000.0,6900.0,6800.0,6500.0,6600.0,6700.0,7200.0,7000.0,6600.0,6500.0,6400.0,7400.0,6800.0,7500.0,7200.0,6900.0,7600.0,7300.0,7800.0,7500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6200.0,7200.0,6100.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,6000.0,6100.0,6600.0,6500.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,6800.0,5700.0,5700.0,5800.0,5600.0,5600.0,5700.0,6100.0,6000.0,5500.0,5400.0,5400.0,6300.0,5300.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,5300.0,5800.0,5600.0,5100.0,5000.0,5000.0,5800.0,4900.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,4900.0,5400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,36000.0,32000.0,38000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,36000.0,33000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,40000.0,32000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,28000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,38000.0,30000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,21000.0,20000.0,18000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6140.0,5820.0,6090.0,5730.0,6360.0,5880.0,15900.0,10400.0,9350.0,7750.0,7180.0,7640.0,8050.0,8620.0,26100.0,14400.0,11300.0,9480.0,8850.0,9150.0,8430.0,8020.0,7580.0,8260.0,9020.0,7790.0,11900.0,8760.0,8180.0,7020.0,9420.0,6980.0,6240.0,5820.0,5570.0,6050.0,5480.0,5310.0,5580.0,5180.0,5760.0,5120.0,4980.0,5360.0,4880.0,5060.0,6150.0,5840.0,5020.0,4780.0,5620.0,5280.0,4920.0,4520.0,4280.0,4580.0,4420.0,4180.0,4120.0,4470.0,4620.0,4410.0,12900.0,8460.0,6520.0,5180.0,5020.0,4790.0,5160.0,4870.0,4720.0,5080.0,4830.0,4590.0,6380.0,5040.0,5570.0,4820.0,4580.0,5010.0,11800.0,8950.0,7240.0,7580.0,5380.0,4720.0,4490.0,4410.0,5280.0,4380.0,4210.0,4460.0,4320.0,4180.0,4420.0,4980.0,4620.0,4290.0,4210.0,4120.0,4760.0,4010.0,4180.0,6820.0,5580.0,4420.0,4190.0,4680.0,4420.0,4090.0,4020.0,4180.0,5150.0,3920.0,4080.0,4260.0,4020.0,3880.0,4120.0,4530.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9800.0,8600.0,9300.0,9100.0,14800.0,8600.0,7900.0,8050.0,9400.0,9600.0,9450.0,7700.0,8800.0,7600.0,8200.0,8000.0,7850.0,7500.0,7000.0,7100.0,8250.0,8450.0,8300.0,6800.0,22500.0,11800.0,7500.0,7000.0,6900.0,6600.0,6100.0,6250.0,7200.0,7350.0,7300.0,6000.0,6050.0,5250.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5150.0,4850.0,4900.0,5650.0,5800.0,5700.0,4700.0,5500.0,4750.0,5200.0,5350.0,4950.0,4700.0,4400.0,4450.0,5150.0,5250.0,5200.0,4250.0,4950.0,4300.0,4600.0,4500.0,7800.0,4250.0,3950.0,4000.0,4650.0,4750.0,4700.0,3850.0,6050.0,5250.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,6800.0,6200.0,6300.0,7800.0,11500.0,7000.0,4700.0,5500.0,4750.0,5100.0,5000.0,6200.0,4700.0,4400.0,4450.0,5150.0,5250.0,5200.0,4250.0,4950.0,4280.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4230.0,3960.0,4000.0,4630.0,4730.0,4680.0,3830.0,4620.0,3990.0,4280.0,4200.0,4120.0,3950.0,3700.0,3740.0,4320.0,4410.0,4370.0,3570.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3600.0,5200.0,3800.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,4100.0,3400.0,3600.0,8800.0,5200.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,4300.0,4600.0,4200.0,4800.0,5200.0,6200.0,21500.0,9500.0,6000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4600.0,5400.0,8200.0,5600.0,5200.0,4200.0,3800.0,4300.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,4200.0,3400.0,3100.0,2800.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3700.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,4100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4200.0,4600.0,4200.0,4400.0,5200.0,8800.0,6200.0,7200.0,5400.0,4200.0,3800.0,3900.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3800.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3800.0,4600.0,4300.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3900.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,9000.0,7000.0,5200.0,4600.0,4800.0,4300.0,8500.0,6200.0,5200.0,4200.0,3700.0,3600.0,7500.0,5400.0,4700.0,4200.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3600.0,8500.0,6200.0,4700.0,3800.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,3600.0,9500.0,6800.0,5200.0,4700.0,3600.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0],"meta/muse-ember":[4800.0,10200.0,6200.0,5400.0,4800.0,6500.0,24800.0,21400.0,9800.0,6200.0,7500.0,11500.0,8200.0,5600.0,5000.0,5200.0,4700.0,5100.0,4400.0,4600.0,4900.0,5800.0,11800.0,8400.0,6800.0,5200.0,4800.0,4700.0,7200.0,5400.0,4600.0,6500.0,8200.0,4200.0,3800.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3100.0,3400.0,3200.0,3600.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3000.0,3200.0,3600.0,3300.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2900.0,3000.0,2600.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,4800.0,6200.0,4200.0,4600.0,7800.0,5200.0,5600.0,8200.0,7600.0,4200.0,3800.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,2800.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2900.0,2600.0,2400.0,2700.0,7200.0,4300.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,4200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4200.0,2660.0,2800.0,2660.0,2800.0,2940.0,2380.0,2380.0,2800.0,2800.0,2940.0,5320.0,4500.0,2850.0,3000.0,2850.0,3000.0,3150.0,2550.0,2550.0,3000.0,3000.0,3150.0,5700.0,4800.0,3040.0,3200.0,3040.0,3200.0,3360.0,2720.0,2720.0,3200.0,3200.0,3360.0,6080.0,5100.0,3230.0,3400.0,3230.0,3400.0,4170.0,2890.0,2890.0,3400.0,3400.0,3570.0,6460.0,5850.0,3705.0,4095.0,4150.0,4368.0,4586.0,3713.0,3713.0,4368.0,4368.0,4586.0,8300.0,5740.0,3895.0,4100.0,3895.0,4100.0,4305.0,3485.0,3485.0,4100.0,4100.0,5205.0,7380.0,6020.0,4085.0,4300.0,4085.0,5000.0,5215.0,3655.0,3655.0,4300.0,4300.0,4515.0,7740.0,6300.0,4275.0,4500.0,5775.0,6500.0,7225.0,6825.0,6325.0,6000.0,5500.0,4725.0,8100.0,6580.0,4465.0,4700.0,4465.0,4700.0,4935.0,3995.0,3995.0,4700.0,4700.0,4935.0,7520.0,6370.0,4655.0,38000.0,13000.0,6500.0,5545.0,4165.0,4165.0,4900.0,4900.0,5145.0,8330.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1800.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,2100.0,4700.0,6200.0,2500.0,5800.0,7200.0,4100.0,3000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,2400.0,6500.0,5600.0,3100.0,3400.0,3000.0,2800.0,4200.0,6500.0,8800.0,7400.0,4800.0,3000.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,6100.0,4700.0,3600.0,3100.0,2600.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,3500.0,4100.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,2500.0,2900.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,3500.0,2900.0,2500.0,4700.0,3400.0,2800.0,4500.0,2500.0,2400.0,6500.0,18000.0,24000.0,30000.0,43000.0,22000.0,14000.0,11000.0,9500.0,8500.0,7000.0,5800.0,5400.0,5600.0,6000.0,8500.0,9000.0,17000.0,8000.0,6500.0,9000.0,8000.0,6500.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,5700.0,6500.0,5700.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4800.0,7000.0,8000.0,5600.0,5000.0,5200.0,7000.0,8000.0,6000.0,7200.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,6000.0,5300.0,4500.0,4600.0,5000.0,6500.0,7000.0,5500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,16500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1050.0,1100.0,1250.0,1400.0,1550.0,1500.0,1700.0,1950.0,1650.0,1750.0,3100.0,2650.0,1950.0,1550.0,1750.0,2150.0,2000.0,1800.0,1950.0,2150.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,2200.0,1550.0,1500.0,1850.0,2200.0,2000.0,1750.0,1850.0,2000.0,1700.0,1650.0,2000.0,2450.0,2000.0,1650.0,1850.0,2050.0,2100.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1900.0,2900.0,2600.0,1700.0,1550.0,2350.0,1800.0,2100.0,1950.0,1750.0,1650.0,2700.0,2400.0,1650.0,1500.0,1650.0,1800.0,2100.0,1950.0,2150.0,2250.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2250.0,1550.0,1500.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1900.0,2050.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,2050.0,1450.0,1400.0,1600.0,1900.0,2000.0,1750.0,1850.0,1750.0,1950.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,1650.0,1550.0,1750.0,1700.0,1850.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,3000.0,3800.0,3400.0,2450.0,1900.0,1800.0,1950.0,2050.0,1950.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1950.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1500.0,1370.0,1450.0,1320.0,1480.0,1260.0,1400.0,1310.0,1550.0,1760.0,1600.0,1430.0,1540.0,1460.0,1680.0,1580.0,1810.0,1700.0,1760.0,1630.0,1920.0,2050.0,1840.0,1690.0,1800.0,1700.0,1880.0,1790.0,1940.0,1810.0,1720.0,1900.0,2200.0,2750.0,4200.0,3100.0,1400.0,1300.0,1430.0,1260.0,1380.0,1190.0,1250.0,1180.0,1320.0,1460.0,1280.0,1130.0,1080.0,1050.0,1180.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1050.0,980.0,1080.0,1180.0,1040.0,920.0,950.0,900.0,1050.0,980.0,1100.0,1250.0,1190.0,1080.0,1210.0,1390.0,1260.0,1130.0,1020.0,960.0,1100.0,1050.0,1180.0,1070.0,980.0,1040.0,1130.0,1280.0,1160.0,1020.0,1650.0,1840.0,1700.0,1580.0,1740.0,1610.0,1530.0,1690.0,1930.0,2280.0,1970.0,1760.0,1500.0,1380.0,1460.0,1320.0,1480.0,1400.0,1280.0,1350.0,1520.0,1710.0,1580.0,1420.0,1650.0,1510.0,1740.0,1600.0,1820.0,1680.0,1590.0,1720.0,1980.0,2200.0,1900.0,1750.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1680.0,1632.0,1632.0,1600.0,1600.0,1552.0,1504.0,1472.0,1568.0,1648.0,1664.0,1600.0,1575.0,1530.0,1530.0,1500.0,1500.0,1455.0,1410.0,1380.0,1470.0,1545.0,1560.0,1500.0,1470.0,1428.0,1428.0,1400.0,1400.0,1358.0,1316.0,1288.0,1372.0,1442.0,1456.0,1400.0,1365.0,1326.0,1326.0,1300.0,1300.0,1261.0,1222.0,1196.0,1274.0,1339.0,1352.0,1300.0,1313.0,1275.0,1275.0,1250.0,1250.0,1213.0,1175.0,1150.0,1225.0,1288.0,1300.0,1250.0,1260.0,1224.0,1224.0,1200.0,1200.0,1164.0,1128.0,1104.0,1176.0,1236.0,1248.0,1200.0,1260.0,1224.0,2100.0,2600.0,2400.0,2000.0,1500.0,1300.0,1250.0,1280.0,1300.0,1250.0,1365.0,1326.0,1326.0,1300.0,1300.0,1261.0,1222.0,1196.0,1274.0,1339.0,1352.0,1300.0,1260.0,1224.0,1224.0,1200.0,1200.0,1164.0,1128.0,1104.0,1176.0,1236.0,1248.0,1200.0,1208.0,1173.0,1173.0,1150.0,1150.0,1116.0,1081.0,1058.0,1127.0,1185.0,1196.0,1150.0]}},{"title":"Lisa Gerrard","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Lisa Gerrard\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15634,13333,15638,14542,14901,12675,12689,12625,13477,14120,13838,14375,14570,13421,13640,14293,14573,13257,12577,11594,11635,12379,12429,12043,14003,12162,18777,14558,14043,13309,12662,12883,13945,13274,16829,15044,14191,12812,16625,15275,16476,14527,14302,12560,11677,16421,15224,11886,12781,11850,11290,14336,14279,11722,12594,13238,12652,12939,13550,14552,14995,13978,14730,13259,13022,11161,12024,12074,13415,13089,12754,11227,12558,12299,12811,17275,15579,12286,11626,12206,12052,12405,12194,11022,13519,10739,11229,13366,12989,15525,12769,12856,12303,11843,12410,12159,13443,12227,16042,15399,11799,10021,12944,10347,14562,15321,24449,19242,15530,13130,11993,14178,12710,12639,11256,12288,11227,12147,15232,14330],"flat_reference_value":16983.429902111675,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[16500.0,15100.0,15800.0,14900.0,16000.0,15300.0,16100.0,16800.0,15100.0,16300.0,15700.0,18000.0,16100.0,13900.0,15000.0,14500.0,15700.0,14800.0,16000.0,16500.0,14600.0,15400.0,14900.0,16700.0,15700.0,14000.0,14900.0,14600.0,15400.0,15100.0,15900.0,16400.0,16200.0,17300.0,21100.0,18600.0,17400.0,15800.0,16700.0,17800.0,19700.0,18300.0,17700.0,18000.0,16500.0,17400.0,16600.0,18400.0,17600.0,16400.0,19500.0,22600.0,23300.0,20500.0,19900.0,20500.0,18400.0,19000.0,18400.0,20700.0,19300.0,17100.0,18200.0,17400.0,18400.0,17600.0,18500.0,19000.0,16900.0,17800.0,17100.0,19300.0,18400.0,16300.0,17300.0,16800.0,18000.0,17000.0,18100.0,18300.0,16400.0,17300.0,16600.0,18700.0,17800.0,15700.0,16800.0,16100.0,17200.0,16500.0,17400.0,17800.0,16000.0,16900.0,16300.0,18300.0,17600.0,15900.0,17100.0,16400.0,17500.0,16900.0,21000.0,19600.0,17900.0,19800.0,29400.0,28500.0,24500.0,19700.0,20400.0,18800.0,19800.0,18800.0,19700.0,20100.0,18100.0,19100.0,18400.0,20500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[40200.0,36800.0,39100.0,37900.0,39500.0,37200.0,38400.0,38100.0,36900.0,38300.0,37600.0,39400.0,40800.0,36200.0,39300.0,43500.0,42100.0,39800.0,40500.0,38700.0,37400.0,38900.0,38100.0,39600.0,40900.0,35900.0,39200.0,37800.0,40400.0,38600.0,39100.0,39800.0,42300.0,44700.0,56200.0,45800.0,41500.0,36700.0,39600.0,38900.0,43800.0,44200.0,40100.0,38900.0,37800.0,39200.0,38400.0,40300.0,41600.0,37900.0,42500.0,46800.0,54900.0,43700.0,41900.0,41200.0,39400.0,40600.0,39800.0,41700.0,42400.0,37500.0,51800.0,43900.0,46300.0,39700.0,39200.0,38800.0,45600.0,74500.0,52300.0,43100.0,41800.0,36400.0,39500.0,43600.0,44900.0,41200.0,38700.0,37900.0,43200.0,38600.0,36900.0,38200.0,39400.0,34600.0,37800.0,36500.0,37200.0,35400.0,36800.0,36100.0,34900.0,35800.0,35200.0,36900.0,37600.0,36400.0,63800.0,45200.0,38100.0,35600.0,36900.0,35800.0,34700.0,39400.0,94600.0,72300.0,49800.0,36900.0,36400.0,34200.0,34900.0,33100.0,34000.0,33600.0,32400.0,33500.0,33100.0,34800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[24500.0,21200.0,21800.0,20500.0,22100.0,20400.0,21000.0,20200.0,21500.0,22800.0,22000.0,23400.0,23100.0,20800.0,21400.0,20100.0,21000.0,19800.0,20500.0,19900.0,21200.0,21600.0,21100.0,22500.0,22000.0,20500.0,21200.0,23800.0,22900.0,21100.0,20800.0,21500.0,25400.0,27200.0,33500.0,27800.0,24200.0,21800.0,22500.0,23100.0,25600.0,24900.0,21500.0,20800.0,21300.0,22000.0,21400.0,22700.0,23000.0,21500.0,24800.0,27500.0,26100.0,23400.0,22100.0,21000.0,20600.0,21400.0,21900.0,23200.0,22800.0,20400.0,21000.0,21900.0,24500.0,22600.0,20100.0,19800.0,20500.0,20200.0,20800.0,21500.0,21200.0,19800.0,21500.0,24200.0,23800.0,21700.0,20300.0,19400.0,21000.0,19800.0,19500.0,20800.0,20500.0,18900.0,19700.0,18800.0,19200.0,18400.0,18900.0,18100.0,18700.0,19300.0,19100.0,20400.0,20100.0,19200.0,19800.0,19500.0,20200.0,20800.0,25400.0,22300.0,23500.0,26800.0,44200.0,41500.0,28600.0,23500.0,22000.0,20800.0,20100.0,19400.0,19000.0,18600.0,19200.0,19700.0,19900.0,21200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28500.0,27000.0,27500.0,27000.0,26500.0,27000.0,27000.0,27500.0,28000.0,26000.0,26500.0,25500.0,25500.0,24500.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,24500.0,25000.0,23500.0,24000.0,23500.0,23500.0,22500.0,23000.0,23500.0,23500.0,25000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24500.0,23500.0,24000.0,26500.0,27000.0,25000.0,23500.0,23000.0,22500.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,23000.0,22500.0,25000.0,28000.0,28500.0,25000.0,24000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,23000.0,21500.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20000.0,20000.0,19500.0,20000.0,20500.0,19500.0,20000.0,20000.0,21500.0,21000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,20000.0,32000.0,26000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,19500.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,45000.0,46000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,46000.0,43000.0,42000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,45000.0,42000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,40000.0,46000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,39000.0,40000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,58000.0,48000.0,38000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10500.0,9900.0,11200.0,10200.0,9700.0,9400.0,9100.0,9500.0,10600.0,10100.0,10700.0,11300.0,10600.0,10000.0,11600.0,10500.0,10100.0,9700.0,9500.0,10200.0,11200.0,10500.0,11200.0,12300.0,12100.0,11400.0,12000.0,11400.0,11200.0,12500.0,10900.0,11600.0,12100.0,12800.0,24500.0,17200.0,13200.0,12600.0,15200.0,19400.0,18800.0,14100.0,12900.0,13400.0,13200.0,12600.0,12700.0,13600.0,13100.0,12400.0,14100.0,19300.0,16200.0,14100.0,13300.0,13100.0,13600.0,13100.0,13600.0,14100.0,13100.0,12400.0,12400.0,12700.0,15100.0,13600.0,12400.0,12000.0,12500.0,12100.0,12500.0,13200.0,12600.0,12000.0,12400.0,12100.0,12100.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12100.0,12000.0,12100.0,12600.0,12000.0,11500.0,11900.0,11500.0,11400.0,11000.0,10600.0,10600.0,11100.0,11600.0,12100.0,12100.0,12100.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12100.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,15000.0,82000.0,46000.0,20500.0,16200.0,12100.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,10100.0,10600.0,12600.0,11200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[12400.0,10500.0,12100.0,11300.0,11000.0,10400.0,10300.0,10700.0,11200.0,11700.0,11500.0,10300.0,11800.0,9100.0,11300.0,10700.0,10300.0,9800.0,9700.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10800.0,9700.0,11000.0,8600.0,10600.0,10000.0,9600.0,9200.0,9100.0,9350.0,9800.0,10200.0,14500.0,9100.0,10400.0,8100.0,10000.0,9500.0,11100.0,10500.0,8700.0,8900.0,9300.0,9700.0,9600.0,8600.0,11400.0,9400.0,13200.0,12500.0,10000.0,9600.0,9500.0,9700.0,10200.0,10600.0,10500.0,9400.0,10100.0,7900.0,9700.0,9200.0,8800.0,8450.0,8350.0,8600.0,9000.0,9400.0,9300.0,8300.0,9500.0,7400.0,9200.0,8700.0,8300.0,8000.0,7900.0,8100.0,8500.0,11800.0,8800.0,7800.0,9200.0,7100.0,8850.0,8350.0,8050.0,7700.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,8550.0,8450.0,7550.0,10000.0,8300.0,9700.0,9200.0,8800.0,8450.0,9900.0,9000.0,9600.0,12800.0,22500.0,16800.0,10200.0,6800.0,8400.0,7950.0,7650.0,7300.0,7250.0,7450.0,7800.0,8100.0,8050.0,7200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[8700.0,8450.0,8280.0,8200.0,8120.0,7870.0,7630.0,7710.0,8200.0,8450.0,8610.0,8120.0,8480.0,8240.0,8080.0,8000.0,7920.0,7680.0,7440.0,7520.0,8000.0,8240.0,8400.0,7920.0,8590.0,8340.0,8180.0,8100.0,8020.0,7780.0,7530.0,7610.0,9400.0,11300.0,14600.0,8720.0,9120.0,8860.0,8690.0,11100.0,11000.0,9760.0,8500.0,8080.0,11100.0,11860.0,11530.0,9010.0,7740.0,7520.0,7370.0,7300.0,7230.0,7010.0,6790.0,6860.0,7300.0,7520.0,7670.0,7230.0,8370.0,8140.0,7980.0,7900.0,11320.0,8780.0,7850.0,7430.0,7900.0,8140.0,8300.0,7820.0,8590.0,8340.0,8180.0,8100.0,8020.0,7780.0,7530.0,10810.0,9600.0,8340.0,8610.0,8020.0,9120.0,8860.0,8690.0,8600.0,8510.0,9760.0,8800.0,8080.0,8600.0,8860.0,9030.0,8510.0,10920.0,10610.0,10400.0,13800.0,11700.0,9890.0,13580.0,11180.0,11300.0,13110.0,24800.0,16200.0,14870.0,13040.0,11810.0,11200.0,12600.0,10750.0,10420.0,10530.0,11200.0,11540.0,11760.0,11090.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[12800.0,12100.0,12400.0,11800.0,12200.0,11500.0,10800.0,11200.0,11900.0,12300.0,12600.0,12000.0,13000.0,12300.0,12600.0,12000.0,12400.0,11700.0,11100.0,11500.0,12100.0,12600.0,12900.0,12300.0,13200.0,12500.0,12800.0,12200.0,12600.0,11900.0,11300.0,11700.0,12400.0,13000.0,18500.0,16500.0,15000.0,14200.0,14600.0,13900.0,15200.0,14300.0,13500.0,14000.0,14800.0,15300.0,15700.0,14900.0,16000.0,15200.0,15800.0,15500.0,17200.0,16000.0,15000.0,15400.0,16200.0,16600.0,17000.0,16000.0,15500.0,14800.0,15200.0,14600.0,16200.0,15200.0,14300.0,14700.0,15400.0,15800.0,16100.0,15300.0,15000.0,14300.0,14700.0,14100.0,14500.0,13800.0,13100.0,14500.0,14800.0,15200.0,15500.0,14700.0,14500.0,13800.0,14200.0,13600.0,14000.0,13300.0,12600.0,13000.0,13700.0,14100.0,14400.0,13700.0,14200.0,13500.0,13900.0,13300.0,13700.0,13000.0,12300.0,12700.0,13400.0,13800.0,88000.0,45000.0,28000.0,20000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15200.0,14400.0,14800.0,15500.0,15900.0,16200.0,15400.0],"meta/muse-ember":[9800.0,10000.0,9400.0,10000.0,11600.0,8800.0,9600.0,8700.0,9900.0,10900.0,9900.0,9900.0,10700.0,10100.0,11000.0,9600.0,10900.0,9900.0,9300.0,10900.0,10100.0,10800.0,11200.0,10200.0,11200.0,11600.0,11100.0,10500.0,11700.0,10800.0,9900.0,16200.0,12200.0,11200.0,19200.0,14700.0,12600.0,15600.0,14700.0,13600.0,11800.0,12000.0,10700.0,11200.0,14900.0,14500.0,12800.0,12000.0,12600.0,12800.0,15900.0,14000.0,20500.0,16000.0,12000.0,11200.0,12700.0,13600.0,13600.0,13600.0,13400.0,12700.0,13600.0,12400.0,14100.0,12700.0,11400.0,12900.0,12800.0,15700.0,14000.0,12900.0,13400.0,12500.0,13400.0,11800.0,14300.0,12100.0,11400.0,12000.0,17400.0,18900.0,13900.0,12700.0,13900.0,13300.0,13900.0,12800.0,19100.0,16600.0,14600.0,12800.0,14300.0,18900.0,16100.0,13900.0,14800.0,14100.0,14900.0,13400.0,15100.0,14000.0,23000.0,21900.0,30400.0,37100.0,54900.0,38900.0,28900.0,21700.0,18100.0,15200.0,16000.0,14300.0,13400.0,14500.0,14600.0,15500.0,15700.0,14900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[39200.0,41500.0,40100.0,38000.0,42500.0,47800.0,52600.0,50300.0,40900.0,39800.0,41200.0,38600.0,42800.0,45400.0,44000.0,41000.0,45900.0,39800.0,38600.0,39500.0,41600.0,42200.0,44300.0,41500.0,46500.0,49300.0,47800.0,45000.0,50400.0,43700.0,42400.0,43500.0,45900.0,52300.0,66800.0,59500.0,56800.0,60300.0,58400.0,55000.0,66500.0,75200.0,73400.0,70100.0,63800.0,60500.0,58900.0,55600.0,59500.0,63400.0,68200.0,74500.0,71800.0,63900.0,60100.0,60800.0,61500.0,60300.0,62100.0,59000.0,61800.0,65700.0,63700.0,60000.0,67300.0,58500.0,56900.0,68400.0,72100.0,62400.0,64100.0,60800.0,55400.0,58900.0,57200.0,54000.0,60500.0,52700.0,51200.0,52300.0,54800.0,55400.0,57700.0,54500.0,51200.0,54400.0,52800.0,50000.0,56000.0,48700.0,47300.0,48400.0,50800.0,51200.0,53400.0,50300.0,53600.0,57000.0,55400.0,52500.0,58800.0,51000.0,49600.0,50800.0,56500.0,64200.0,88500.0,76300.0,50500.0,56800.0,54200.0,58600.0,78900.0,66300.0,61800.0,59400.0,55600.0,55900.0,58200.0,56100.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6500.0,6100.0,6500.0,6200.0,6600.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,6800.0,7500.0,10500.0,9200.0,7800.0,7600.0,8200.0,9000.0,9300.0,8800.0,7900.0,7700.0,8500.0,9800.0,12500.0,11000.0,8600.0,8100.0,8500.0,8300.0,8700.0,8200.0,7600.0,7500.0,8400.0,9300.0,11500.0,9700.0,8300.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8000.0,7900.0,8600.0,9100.0,10300.0,9600.0,9000.0,8600.0,10200.0,9400.0,9100.0,8800.0,8300.0,8100.0,9000.0,9600.0,13500.0,11800.0,11200.0,11900.0,31500.0,24500.0,20500.0,16000.0,14000.0,13300.0,13800.0,15200.0,22500.0,18800.0,13500.0,12800.0,14100.0,14700.0,15200.0,14200.0,13100.0,13400.0,14300.0,15700.0,18100.0,16600.0,14200.0,13500.0,13900.0,14700.0,16200.0,15300.0,13800.0,14200.0,15900.0,15100.0,17200.0,15800.0,15100.0,14300.0,14900.0,15800.0,18100.0,17400.0,15300.0,14700.0,16000.0,16900.0,19800.0,18100.0,16900.0,15800.0,16700.0,17400.0,19100.0,18300.0,16900.0,24500.0,33800.0,46500.0,78000.0,57500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,62000.0,48000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4635.0,4342.0,4261.0,4203.0,4078.0,3952.0,3826.0,3984.0,4247.0,4462.0,4708.0,4081.0,4412.0,4136.0,4044.0,3992.0,3885.0,3766.0,3649.0,3801.0,4047.0,4253.0,4486.0,3883.0,4637.0,4345.0,4262.0,4189.0,4061.0,3908.0,3789.0,4012.0,4391.0,6427.0,11785.0,11243.0,6008.0,5623.0,5784.0,7276.0,7058.0,6842.0,6148.0,6425.0,7091.0,7169.0,6987.0,5549.0,5062.0,4753.0,4901.0,4796.0,8794.0,4407.0,4198.0,4451.0,4697.0,5002.0,5253.0,4498.0,4756.0,4447.0,4309.0,4252.0,4101.0,4048.0,3907.0,4096.0,4347.0,4601.0,4858.0,4197.0,5198.0,4853.0,4747.0,4759.0,5296.0,5304.0,4498.0,4702.0,4897.0,6392.0,6705.0,4801.0,4904.0,4607.0,4501.0,4553.0,4402.0,4298.0,4207.0,4305.0,4603.0,4906.0,5197.0,4452.0,6102.0,5608.0,5206.0,7395.0,6497.0,12184.0,6493.0,6298.0,7486.0,6803.0,24421.0,13817.0,6812.0,6204.0,5706.0,5409.0,11973.0,8492.0,6503.0,6794.0,5906.0,6109.0,6403.0,5502.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3800.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3500.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,3900.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,6800.0,5900.0,4800.0,4500.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,5200.0,5700.0,6200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4900.0,5100.0,4800.0,4500.0,4600.0,4300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4900.0,4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,4700.0,4900.0,5100.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,4700.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5600.0,7000.0,13500.0,9800.0,7200.0,6500.0,6800.0,6400.0,6600.0,6900.0,7100.0,6700.0,7000.0,7400.0,6900.0,6300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1760.0,1760.0,2040.0,2100.0,2100.0,1840.0,1995.0,1995.0,1995.0,1900.0,1900.0,1805.0,1672.0,1672.0,1938.0,1995.0,1995.0,1748.0,2205.0,2205.0,2205.0,2300.0,2300.0,1995.0,1848.0,1848.0,2142.0,2205.0,2205.0,1932.0,1890.0,1890.0,1890.0,1800.0,1800.0,1710.0,1584.0,1584.0,1836.0,1890.0,1890.0,1656.0,1995.0,1995.0,2000.0,1900.0,2600.0,1805.0,1672.0,1672.0,1938.0,1995.0,1995.0,1748.0,1680.0,1680.0,1680.0,1600.0,1600.0,1520.0,1408.0,1408.0,1632.0,1680.0,1680.0,1472.0,1575.0,1575.0,1575.0,1500.0,1500.0,1425.0,1320.0,1320.0,1530.0,1575.0,1575.0,1380.0,1418.0,1418.0,1418.0,1350.0,1350.0,1283.0,1188.0,1188.0,1377.0,1418.0,1418.0,1242.0,1365.0,1365.0,1365.0,1300.0,1300.0,1235.0,1144.0,1144.0,1326.0,1365.0,2100.0,1196.0,1260.0,1260.0,1260.0,1200.0,1200.0,1140.0,1056.0,1056.0,1224.0,1260.0,1260.0,1104.0]}},{"title":"Self-awareness","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Self-awareness\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[29730,30842,31604,27458,25413,24766,27090,23838,27546,29305,27939,25540,28569,26820,30514,26160,25074,22728,23727,25088,28271,31727,33810,28443,32977,29558,31459,27793,28323,25250,27016,28600,30497,31581,152688,27318,27408,28885,29264,25896,24293,22254,21992,22693,24944,28005,27999,23044,28153,29413,25934,24229,23842,20920,21196,22155,27922,28888,26609,27998,26195,25535,32288,26477,21727,21257,21184,21014,23647,26258,21882,21820,23162,21310,24285,20533,20179,20961,20010,21017,22920,24641,25425,22322,24298,32958,26490,19324,17920,14493,15909,15603,15997,17152,16196,15203,16669,16679,20764,18416,18670,17410,17682,19351,18464,19981,15803,13944,15552,11634,12120,11121,10506,8990,9756,10101,9814,9686,9305,9333],"flat_reference_value":16939.223427290504,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[48000.0,47000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0,42000.0,40000.0,43000.0,50000.0,54000.0,53000.0,45000.0,52000.0,50000.0,55000.0,53000.0,52000.0,46000.0,43000.0,47000.0,54000.0,58000.0,57000.0,49000.0,56000.0,54000.0,59000.0,57000.0,56000.0,49000.0,47000.0,50000.0,58000.0,62000.0,61000.0,52000.0,60000.0,57000.0,63000.0,61000.0,59000.0,52000.0,50000.0,53000.0,61000.0,65000.0,63000.0,54000.0,62000.0,60000.0,65000.0,68000.0,64000.0,57000.0,54000.0,57000.0,65000.0,69000.0,68000.0,59000.0,67000.0,64000.0,70000.0,68000.0,65000.0,58000.0,55000.0,59000.0,67000.0,71000.0,69000.0,60000.0,66000.0,63000.0,69000.0,66000.0,64000.0,56000.0,53000.0,57000.0,65000.0,69000.0,67000.0,58000.0,65000.0,62000.0,69000.0,67000.0,65000.0,57000.0,54000.0,58000.0,65000.0,69000.0,67000.0,57000.0,63000.0,60000.0,65000.0,63000.0,61000.0,54000.0,51000.0,55000.0,62000.0,66000.0,64000.0,55000.0,61000.0,57000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,51000.0,49000.0,52000.0,59000.0,63000.0,61000.0,52000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[41200.0,45800.0,47500.0,46900.0,43100.0,36400.0,34800.0,36900.0,44600.0,49200.0,48700.0,39500.0,43100.0,46800.0,50400.0,48200.0,44900.0,37600.0,35900.0,38100.0,46200.0,51300.0,50100.0,40800.0,44500.0,47900.0,51200.0,49600.0,45400.0,37800.0,36500.0,38900.0,46800.0,52100.0,49800.0,40200.0,44900.0,47600.0,50800.0,49100.0,45200.0,37400.0,36800.0,39100.0,47200.0,51900.0,49400.0,40600.0,45100.0,47800.0,44300.0,48900.0,47200.0,40500.0,39200.0,40800.0,46900.0,51400.0,49200.0,41500.0,45600.0,47300.0,49800.0,47600.0,43900.0,37200.0,35800.0,37900.0,44800.0,48500.0,46900.0,38700.0,42400.0,44600.0,47200.0,45100.0,42300.0,41800.0,36900.0,37400.0,43500.0,46800.0,45200.0,38900.0,42800.0,45900.0,48400.0,45600.0,41800.0,35400.0,34600.0,36200.0,42700.0,46100.0,44800.0,37500.0,41200.0,43500.0,45200.0,43800.0,39900.0,33800.0,32900.0,34100.0,39800.0,42600.0,40900.0,34200.0,36800.0,38500.0,40400.0,39100.0,35600.0,30400.0,29500.0,30800.0,35900.0,38400.0,36900.0,31200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[53200.0,58400.0,61200.0,62500.0,54800.0,43100.0,41800.0,46200.0,57300.0,63900.0,64200.0,47500.0,51900.0,57100.0,60400.0,59800.0,53200.0,41900.0,40200.0,44700.0,55100.0,61800.0,62400.0,45800.0,50100.0,54800.0,58200.0,57900.0,51400.0,39800.0,38700.0,43200.0,53600.0,59700.0,60100.0,44200.0,48900.0,53100.0,56700.0,56100.0,49800.0,38600.0,37400.0,41800.0,51900.0,57800.0,58300.0,42900.0,48100.0,51600.0,55400.0,59100.0,53800.0,42100.0,40500.0,43900.0,52700.0,58400.0,57600.0,43200.0,47200.0,50800.0,54600.0,53900.0,47800.0,37600.0,36800.0,40900.0,50100.0,55800.0,56200.0,41500.0,46500.0,49800.0,53400.0,52600.0,48100.0,71200.0,52800.0,44300.0,52400.0,57900.0,58700.0,48200.0,51400.0,54800.0,61200.0,58900.0,51300.0,41200.0,39800.0,43500.0,53100.0,58400.0,57800.0,42700.0,47600.0,51200.0,54900.0,53800.0,47900.0,38400.0,37200.0,41500.0,50800.0,56100.0,55400.0,41800.0,46800.0,50400.0,53900.0,52800.0,46900.0,37800.0,36500.0,40700.0,49800.0,55200.0,54600.0,41200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,33000.0,37000.0,37000.0,30000.0,32000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,32000.0,35000.0,35000.0,28000.0,30000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,29000.0,32000.0,32000.0,26000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,27000.0,30000.0,29000.0,24000.0,27000.0,28000.0,31000.0,33000.0,30000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,28000.0,28000.0,23000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,23000.0,25000.0,25000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,26000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,23000.0,23000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,17000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,15000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17000.0,14000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,77000.0,74000.0,66000.0,64000.0,67000.0,76000.0,79000.0,78000.0,68000.0,74000.0,73000.0,76000.0,72000.0,70000.0,62000.0,60000.0,63000.0,71000.0,74000.0,73000.0,63000.0,70000.0,68000.0,71000.0,68000.0,66000.0,58000.0,57000.0,59000.0,66000.0,69000.0,67000.0,58000.0,65000.0,63000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,53000.0,52000.0,54000.0,61000.0,63000.0,61000.0,53000.0,60000.0,59000.0,61000.0,66000.0,66000.0,60000.0,58000.0,57000.0,61000.0,62000.0,60000.0,54000.0,59000.0,57000.0,59000.0,55000.0,53000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,51000.0,52000.0,50000.0,44000.0,48000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,44000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,39000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[44850.0,31900.0,34200.0,33400.0,29800.0,26900.0,26100.0,28300.0,35600.0,33200.0,30800.0,27900.0,48300.0,35100.0,38400.0,37200.0,33900.0,30200.0,28800.0,31600.0,40300.0,38100.0,34900.0,31700.0,54200.0,39300.0,42100.0,41400.0,37800.0,33200.0,31900.0,35300.0,44600.0,42300.0,39100.0,35000.0,58600.0,43200.0,46400.0,46000.0,41900.0,37100.0,35800.0,39200.0,48700.0,46300.0,42800.0,38600.0,68300.0,51200.0,62400.0,75800.0,55300.0,44100.0,42800.0,45900.0,57400.0,54800.0,50600.0,45700.0,72400.0,53800.0,58200.0,57100.0,51900.0,46700.0,44800.0,48300.0,61200.0,58000.0,53600.0,47900.0,76200.0,56800.0,61300.0,59900.0,55200.0,92400.0,62100.0,51300.0,64300.0,60800.0,56900.0,56100.0,96500.0,80200.0,88600.0,81700.0,74300.0,60100.0,57400.0,62200.0,77100.0,73000.0,68200.0,61000.0,93800.0,71200.0,75400.0,74100.0,68300.0,61200.0,58700.0,63200.0,79200.0,74800.0,69900.0,63000.0,95900.0,72300.0,77200.0,75800.0,69700.0,62100.0,60300.0,64200.0,80400.0,75900.0,70600.0,63800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[16432.0,16108.0,17045.0,15812.0,14689.0,12453.0,11984.0,12837.0,15412.0,17681.0,17105.0,13278.0,17561.0,17034.0,17984.0,16702.0,15477.0,13102.0,12795.0,13248.0,16573.0,18312.0,18341.0,14002.0,18497.0,17935.0,18962.0,17891.0,15984.0,14112.0,13205.0,14196.0,17108.0,19544.0,18973.0,14987.0,19115.0,19123.0,19608.0,18745.0,17056.0,14501.0,14127.0,14602.0,18234.0,20189.0,20197.0,15408.0,20345.0,19768.0,25987.0,26415.0,21340.0,17712.0,16189.0,17055.0,21834.0,23897.0,21123.0,16342.0,23310.0,22945.0,23912.0,20567.0,18392.0,16188.0,15211.0,16297.0,19612.0,22378.0,21745.0,16893.0,22187.0,21594.0,22733.0,21108.0,19456.0,16593.0,16074.0,16702.0,20745.0,23008.0,22967.0,17542.0,23095.0,22478.0,23681.0,22012.0,20247.0,17289.0,16752.0,17408.0,21593.0,23945.0,23891.0,18276.0,24013.0,23389.0,24612.0,23174.0,20763.0,18245.0,17138.0,18367.0,22415.0,25189.0,24518.0,19247.0,24962.0,24287.0,25591.0,23756.0,21834.0,18642.0,18057.0,18773.0,23268.0,25834.0,25712.0,19705.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[92700.0,82100.0,83500.0,77600.0,74300.0,70700.0,66900.0,68400.0,75900.0,77400.0,72300.0,69800.0,97400.0,86500.0,87900.0,81700.0,81500.0,77500.0,73200.0,74900.0,83100.0,81700.0,75900.0,73700.0,103600.0,91900.0,93400.0,86800.0,83200.0,79100.0,74700.0,76600.0,85100.0,86600.0,80800.0,78100.0,109700.0,97300.0,98900.0,91900.0,88300.0,83600.0,79300.0,81100.0,89900.0,91900.0,85400.0,82900.0,126700.0,112400.0,133100.0,118700.0,109300.0,100600.0,95300.0,97400.0,107000.0,109400.0,101700.0,98600.0,136900.0,121100.0,123500.0,114300.0,109900.0,104400.0,98800.0,100900.0,112100.0,114500.0,106600.0,102800.0,144000.0,127300.0,129900.0,120300.0,115700.0,143100.0,112500.0,106300.0,117900.0,120500.0,112000.0,119700.0,185100.0,159700.0,181600.0,151800.0,137300.0,127900.0,118800.0,121200.0,131900.0,134700.0,125300.0,121500.0,173100.0,162800.0,156300.0,144700.0,146100.0,136200.0,125000.0,127700.0,142100.0,144900.0,134800.0,130700.0,185300.0,164200.0,167100.0,155100.0,148900.0,155200.0,143500.0,139600.0,151900.0,155100.0,144300.0,139900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[26400.0,24960.0,24480.0,23760.0,23280.0,22080.0,21120.0,21840.0,25200.0,25680.0,24720.0,22560.0,27500.0,26000.0,25500.0,24750.0,24250.0,23000.0,22000.0,22750.0,26250.0,26750.0,25750.0,23500.0,28600.0,27040.0,26520.0,25740.0,25220.0,23920.0,22880.0,23660.0,27300.0,27820.0,26780.0,24440.0,29700.0,28080.0,27540.0,26730.0,26190.0,24840.0,23760.0,24570.0,28350.0,28890.0,27810.0,25380.0,34100.0,32240.0,33500.0,33000.0,31500.0,29500.0,28000.0,29000.0,33000.0,33170.0,31930.0,29140.0,31900.0,30160.0,29580.0,28710.0,28130.0,26680.0,25520.0,26390.0,30450.0,31030.0,29870.0,27260.0,30800.0,29120.0,28560.0,27720.0,27160.0,25760.0,24640.0,25480.0,29400.0,29960.0,28840.0,30000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33500.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29500.0,30500.0,34500.0,35000.0,33500.0,31000.0,33000.0,31200.0,30600.0,29700.0,29100.0,27600.0,26400.0,27300.0,31500.0,32100.0,30900.0,28200.0,30800.0,29120.0,28560.0,27720.0,27160.0,25760.0,24640.0,25480.0,29400.0,29960.0,28840.0,26320.0],"meta/muse-ember":[25600.0,22700.0,22100.0,21000.0,22700.0,20000.0,18900.0,18900.0,24200.0,31000.0,25400.0,19300.0,26800.0,23800.0,23100.0,22000.0,23800.0,20900.0,19800.0,19800.0,25300.0,26000.0,23100.0,20200.0,28100.0,24800.0,24200.0,23000.0,24800.0,21900.0,20700.0,20700.0,26500.0,27100.0,24200.0,21200.0,29300.0,25900.0,25200.0,24000.0,25900.0,22800.0,21600.0,21600.0,27600.0,28300.0,25200.0,22100.0,31700.0,28100.0,39600.0,35100.0,32300.0,28400.0,23400.0,23400.0,29900.0,30700.0,27300.0,23900.0,33600.0,29700.0,28900.0,27500.0,29700.0,26100.0,24800.0,24800.0,31600.0,32500.0,28900.0,25300.0,35400.0,31300.0,30500.0,29000.0,31300.0,45500.0,37800.0,26100.0,33400.0,34200.0,30500.0,50700.0,51900.0,45900.0,43000.0,36200.0,35700.0,29900.0,43900.0,31600.0,36200.0,37200.0,33100.0,29000.0,40300.0,35600.0,34700.0,42900.0,39200.0,31400.0,29700.0,29700.0,38000.0,44800.0,34700.0,30400.0,37200.0,32900.0,32000.0,30500.0,32900.0,29000.0,27500.0,27500.0,35100.0,36000.0,32000.0,28100.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[37400.0,32100.0,33600.0,31400.0,33800.0,30800.0,29100.0,29400.0,36800.0,36100.0,36200.0,30300.0,45200.0,38300.0,39900.0,37500.0,39700.0,36400.0,34100.0,34800.0,43000.0,42300.0,41700.0,34600.0,51200.0,43400.0,45200.0,42300.0,44800.0,40800.0,38100.0,38600.0,47800.0,47000.0,46400.0,38700.0,57600.0,48800.0,50600.0,47100.0,49900.0,45700.0,42700.0,42900.0,53000.0,51600.0,50800.0,42100.0,61200.0,52100.0,72800.0,78200.0,75100.0,56300.0,45700.0,46300.0,57300.0,56100.0,55700.0,46400.0,68700.0,58100.0,60400.0,56300.0,59500.0,54100.0,50600.0,51000.0,62700.0,61200.0,60300.0,49900.0,72500.0,60800.0,62100.0,57500.0,61300.0,59700.0,59100.0,62200.0,79000.0,85500.0,104000.0,99500.0,100500.0,77800.0,70300.0,57900.0,55500.0,47500.0,42300.0,40800.0,48600.0,45900.0,44000.0,35700.0,55200.0,45700.0,46800.0,42700.0,44600.0,40000.0,36500.0,36400.0,44000.0,42500.0,41100.0,33600.0,48700.0,40700.0,41400.0,38000.0,39800.0,35700.0,32600.0,32600.0,39600.0,38200.0,37200.0,30400.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[15300.0,14800.0,15100.0,13700.0,14500.0,13100.0,12600.0,13000.0,14300.0,15600.0,15100.0,14700.0,15800.0,15200.0,14600.0,13900.0,14400.0,13500.0,13000.0,13400.0,14900.0,16200.0,16800.0,15200.0,15100.0,14600.0,14100.0,13500.0,13900.0,13600.0,12700.0,13000.0,14500.0,15800.0,15300.0,14900.0,15500.0,14900.0,14500.0,13800.0,14300.0,13500.0,13100.0,13500.0,15100.0,16400.0,15900.0,15500.0,16100.0,15700.0,17400.0,18600.0,17900.0,16900.0,16100.0,16600.0,17200.0,18100.0,17700.0,17200.0,17300.0,16500.0,17000.0,16200.0,16600.0,15600.0,15000.0,15400.0,16900.0,17800.0,17400.0,17000.0,17500.0,16900.0,16600.0,16000.0,16300.0,15400.0,14900.0,15500.0,17100.0,18000.0,19500.0,22400.0,20500.0,19100.0,19400.0,18100.0,18600.0,17600.0,17100.0,17800.0,19500.0,20700.0,21400.0,20600.0,21400.0,20200.0,20900.0,19800.0,20300.0,19300.0,18700.0,19300.0,21000.0,22300.0,22900.0,22100.0,23100.0,21800.0,22500.0,21300.0,21800.0,20700.0,20000.0,20700.0,22400.0,23800.0,24500.0,23700.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1550.0,1580.0,1560.0,1520.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1550.0,1650.0,1650.0,1350.0,1600.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1300.0,1250.0,1400.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1450.0,1750.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1400.0,1350.0,1500.0,1850.0,1950.0,1950.0,1550.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,1650.0,2050.0,2100.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2000.0,1800.0,1850.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,1800.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,1800.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,1800.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,1800.0,1700.0,1850.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,1800.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,2050.0,2150.0,2100.0,1650.0,1950.0,2000.0,2050.0,2000.0,1900.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1900.0,2000.0,1950.0,1550.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[36400.0,31200.0,29300.0,28100.0,30600.0,26800.0,25400.0,28500.0,37200.0,35100.0,33400.0,30200.0,38700.0,34200.0,31500.0,30300.0,32600.0,27500.0,26200.0,29400.0,39600.0,37300.0,35700.0,32400.0,41900.0,36800.0,34500.0,32800.0,34700.0,29800.0,28300.0,31900.0,41500.0,40100.0,37800.0,35200.0,44800.0,39600.0,36900.0,35300.0,37600.0,31500.0,30100.0,34200.0,44700.0,43200.0,40600.0,38000.0,50700.0,46500.0,54200.0,58600.0,45900.0,37400.0,35200.0,39700.0,48900.0,46300.0,43800.0,42100.0,56300.0,51700.0,49400.0,47100.0,49800.0,42600.0,40300.0,45500.0,58700.0,55400.0,52200.0,49300.0,62400.0,57600.0,54800.0,52200.0,54900.0,47300.0,45100.0,50200.0,66500.0,61000.0,57400.0,54700.0,72600.0,68200.0,70100.0,61400.0,65300.0,55600.0,52200.0,58400.0,69200.0,65300.0,60700.0,57100.0,80900.0,74300.0,72600.0,70200.0,73800.0,62100.0,59400.0,65700.0,82400.0,77500.0,71800.0,68300.0,88600.0,82100.0,80400.0,77600.0,80900.0,68500.0,65200.0,72700.0,90300.0,85600.0,78400.0,75100.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[18500.0,17600.0,18100.0,17400.0,16900.0,16500.0,16300.0,16600.0,17100.0,17500.0,16800.0,16000.0,17800.0,17000.0,17400.0,16900.0,16400.0,16000.0,15800.0,16100.0,16600.0,16900.0,16300.0,15500.0,17000.0,16300.0,16600.0,16000.0,15500.0,15100.0,14900.0,15200.0,15700.0,16000.0,15400.0,14700.0,16200.0,15500.0,15800.0,15200.0,14800.0,14400.0,14200.0,14500.0,15000.0,15300.0,14700.0,14000.0,16500.0,16200.0,17100.0,18400.0,17900.0,17400.0,16900.0,17100.0,17600.0,18100.0,17400.0,16800.0,18000.0,17200.0,17500.0,16900.0,16400.0,16000.0,15800.0,16100.0,16600.0,17000.0,16400.0,15700.0,16900.0,16200.0,16500.0,15900.0,15400.0,15000.0,14800.0,15100.0,15600.0,16000.0,15400.0,14700.0,16300.0,15600.0,16000.0,15400.0,15000.0,14700.0,14500.0,14900.0,15500.0,16000.0,15400.0,14800.0,16700.0,16000.0,16400.0,15900.0,15500.0,15200.0,15000.0,15400.0,16000.0,16500.0,15900.0,15300.0,17100.0,16400.0,16800.0,16300.0,15900.0,15600.0,15400.0,15800.0,16400.0,16900.0,16300.0,15700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[6700.0,6630.0,6570.0,6320.0,6200.0,5580.0,5270.0,5700.0,6700.0,6820.0,6450.0,5460.0,6480.0,6420.0,6360.0,6120.0,6000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5520.0,6480.0,6600.0,6240.0,5280.0,6370.0,6310.0,6250.0,6020.0,5900.0,5310.0,5020.0,5430.0,6370.0,6490.0,6140.0,5190.0,6160.0,6100.0,6040.0,5810.0,5700.0,5130.0,4850.0,5240.0,6160.0,6270.0,5930.0,5020.0,7130.0,7060.0,8050.0,8410.0,7260.0,6240.0,5610.0,6070.0,7130.0,7260.0,6860.0,5810.0,6590.0,6530.0,6470.0,6220.0,6100.0,5490.0,5190.0,5610.0,6590.0,6710.0,6340.0,5370.0,6050.0,5990.0,5940.0,5710.0,5600.0,5040.0,4760.0,5150.0,6050.0,6160.0,5820.0,4930.0,5400.0,5350.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4500.0,4250.0,4600.0,5400.0,5500.0,5200.0,4400.0,4970.0,4920.0,4880.0,4690.0,4600.0,4140.0,3910.0,4230.0,4970.0,5060.0,4780.0,4050.0,4540.0,4490.0,4450.0,4280.0,4200.0,3780.0,3570.0,3860.0,4540.0,4620.0,4370.0,3700.0]}},{"title":"Our House (Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young song)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Our House (Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young song)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[4574,4352,4657,4972,4592,4076,4241,4601,4655,4205,3905,4324,4587,4013,4417,4118,3929,3708,3691,3950,4131,4315,3750,3522,3695,3436,4361,3672,3691,3688,4452,4870,4237,3942,4556,4187,5022,4430,7238,4949,4696,5118,5496,6222,4652,4676,5605,4525,5050,19770,17997,12121,10302,10778,9391,8573,7110,7983,7888,6508,8316,7615,7660,7337,10450,8442,6414,5999,5217,4556,4164,4765,6040,5213,4275,4068,4044,4632,5874,6416,4940,5092,4893,4711,23537,6795,5600,6088,5897,5350,5794,5736,6108,5389,5864,5751,8453,10984,8642,7077,6289,5392,5506,6080,7369,8267,14138,13417,10063,8262,10942,11365,8051,7093,7063,7110,10521,8822,6835,6686],"flat_reference_value":17054.505934602617,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7600.0,7200.0,7800.0,7500.0,8000.0,7700.0,8100.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,7900.0,7600.0,8100.0,7400.0,8200.0,7900.0,8500.0,8100.0,8600.0,8400.0,8300.0,8900.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,7900.0,8700.0,8500.0,9100.0,8800.0,9200.0,9100.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9100.0,8400.0,9400.0,9200.0,9700.0,9500.0,10500.0,13000.0,10700.0,10400.0,10000.0,9400.0,10100.0,9600.0,11000.0,12300.0,12100.0,11600.0,12000.0,12200.0,11900.0,12500.0,11700.0,11000.0,11900.0,10900.0,12100.0,11800.0,12400.0,12100.0,12700.0,12500.0,12200.0,13000.0,12300.0,11600.0,13900.0,13000.0,13200.0,12700.0,13500.0,13100.0,14500.0,13900.0,13300.0,14100.0,13300.0,12400.0,43000.0,21000.0,16500.0,14700.0,15100.0,14300.0,14900.0,14700.0,14300.0,15100.0,14200.0,13200.0,14400.0,14500.0,15000.0,14300.0,15000.0,14500.0,15200.0,15000.0,14500.0,15300.0,14400.0,13500.0,14700.0,13600.0,15200.0,14600.0,15400.0,14900.0,15700.0,15400.0,14900.0,15700.0,14800.0,13900.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[8100.0,7500.0,7900.0,7700.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7400.0,7300.0,7600.0,8100.0,8500.0,8400.0,7700.0,8100.0,7900.0,7800.0,7500.0,7800.0,7700.0,7600.0,8000.0,8400.0,8800.0,8700.0,7900.0,8500.0,8300.0,8200.0,7900.0,8200.0,8100.0,8000.0,8400.0,8900.0,9300.0,9100.0,8300.0,8900.0,17400.0,10200.0,10600.0,9800.0,9100.0,8700.0,8900.0,9400.0,9800.0,9600.0,8900.0,10400.0,11200.0,10900.0,14800.0,12100.0,10500.0,9800.0,10100.0,10600.0,11000.0,10800.0,9700.0,10300.0,9900.0,13600.0,11800.0,10200.0,9700.0,9300.0,9600.0,10200.0,10500.0,12400.0,14200.0,10100.0,9600.0,11900.0,9500.0,11400.0,10600.0,9100.0,9300.0,9700.0,10100.0,33500.0,13200.0,10400.0,9800.0,10100.0,9200.0,9400.0,9100.0,8700.0,8900.0,9300.0,9600.0,9400.0,11600.0,9200.0,8600.0,8500.0,8100.0,8300.0,8100.0,7800.0,8700.0,8500.0,8900.0,8700.0,7900.0,8200.0,7900.0,7800.0,7500.0,7700.0,7600.0,7400.0,7700.0,8100.0,8400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[14200.0,13500.0,13900.0,13100.0,14500.0,13800.0,14100.0,13600.0,14300.0,14900.0,15200.0,15800.0,15100.0,13600.0,14400.0,13900.0,14200.0,13700.0,13500.0,13800.0,14100.0,14600.0,14800.0,15300.0,14700.0,13200.0,14100.0,13600.0,13900.0,13400.0,13200.0,13500.0,13800.0,14200.0,14500.0,15100.0,14400.0,13000.0,13700.0,13300.0,13600.0,12900.0,12800.0,13100.0,13400.0,13900.0,14200.0,14800.0,13900.0,13100.0,16800.0,18200.0,15400.0,13700.0,13200.0,13000.0,13300.0,13600.0,14100.0,14600.0,13800.0,12600.0,13400.0,13100.0,16500.0,13300.0,12700.0,12500.0,12800.0,13100.0,13500.0,14200.0,21500.0,27400.0,16200.0,13800.0,13400.0,12700.0,12400.0,12300.0,12600.0,12900.0,13200.0,13700.0,53600.0,22400.0,15100.0,13200.0,12800.0,12100.0,11900.0,11700.0,12000.0,12300.0,12600.0,13100.0,12800.0,11800.0,12400.0,12000.0,12200.0,11600.0,11400.0,11300.0,11600.0,11900.0,12200.0,12700.0,12300.0,11400.0,11900.0,11600.0,11800.0,11200.0,11000.0,10900.0,11200.0,11500.0,11800.0,12300.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[5600.0,5300.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5500.0,5500.0,5300.0,5400.0,5600.0,5900.0,5600.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,5300.0,5100.0,5200.0,5300.0,5700.0,5300.0,4900.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,5100.0,5500.0,5100.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,5600.0,6200.0,5800.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5100.0,4700.0,4900.0,4800.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,5200.0,4700.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4800.0,14500.0,7200.0,5500.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4700.0,4600.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,5100.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,5600.0,6500.0,7000.0,7800.0,6500.0,6000.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5900.0,6000.0,5600.0,5800.0,5500.0,5600.0,5300.0,5300.0,5300.0,5100.0,5200.0,5300.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,13500.0,6800.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4900.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,5700.0,5700.0,5600.0,5300.0,5300.0,5600.0,5700.0,5500.0,4900.0,6100.0,6000.0,5900.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5100.0,5200.0,5400.0,5500.0,5400.0,4800.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,5500.0,5400.0,5100.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5300.0,4700.0,5900.0,5800.0,5700.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0,6200.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,5600.0,5000.0,5900.0,5800.0,6200.0,6100.0,5900.0,5700.0,5400.0,5400.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,4900.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5600.0,5200.0,5200.0,5400.0,6300.0,5800.0,5100.0,5900.0,6000.0,5700.0,5400.0,5500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,4600.0,45000.0,9500.0,6000.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,5000.0,4800.0,4400.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4100.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9412.0,8598.0,9015.0,8723.0,8450.0,7588.0,7512.0,7704.0,8533.0,8890.0,8802.0,9056.0,8764.0,8231.0,8365.0,8098.0,7954.0,7182.0,7105.0,7248.0,8023.0,8472.0,8189.0,8513.0,8412.0,7689.0,8024.0,7810.0,7532.0,6795.0,6740.0,6883.0,7645.0,7921.0,7874.0,8098.0,8185.0,7492.0,7815.0,7580.0,7348.0,6621.0,6580.0,9184.0,7432.0,7725.0,7680.0,7895.0,7984.0,7412.0,8568.0,7625.0,7450.0,6702.0,6510.0,6635.0,7328.0,7489.0,7362.0,7714.0,7523.0,6884.0,7192.0,6975.0,6742.0,6088.0,6035.0,6172.0,6834.0,7091.0,7058.0,7246.0,7112.0,6684.0,6780.0,6592.0,6458.0,5813.0,5784.0,5896.0,6532.0,6774.0,6741.0,6930.0,27485.0,13842.0,8924.0,7021.0,6284.0,5632.0,5608.0,5715.0,6342.0,6578.0,6534.0,6728.0,6785.0,6278.0,6552.0,6369.0,6145.0,5532.0,5510.0,5624.0,6238.0,6462.0,6430.0,6625.0,6568.0,6075.0,6341.0,6158.0,5952.0,5368.0,5334.0,5447.0,6038.0,6255.0,6224.0,6408.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6200.0,5700.0,6050.0,6150.0,6750.0,7350.0,7650.0,7150.0,6350.0,6100.0,6300.0,6850.0,6050.0,5550.0,5850.0,6100.0,6550.0,7150.0,7400.0,7050.0,6250.0,6050.0,6250.0,6750.0,5950.0,5450.0,5750.0,5950.0,6450.0,7050.0,7300.0,6950.0,6200.0,6000.0,6150.0,6650.0,6150.0,5650.0,5950.0,6150.0,6550.0,7150.0,7550.0,7150.0,6350.0,6150.0,6350.0,6900.0,6350.0,5950.0,8250.0,7650.0,8750.0,8150.0,8450.0,7850.0,7050.0,6850.0,7050.0,7550.0,6850.0,6350.0,6650.0,6850.0,7250.0,7850.0,8150.0,7650.0,6950.0,6750.0,6950.0,7350.0,6650.0,6150.0,6450.0,6650.0,7050.0,7550.0,7850.0,7450.0,6850.0,6650.0,6850.0,7250.0,33000.0,11200.0,8300.0,7250.0,9450.0,9150.0,8500.0,7950.0,7250.0,7050.0,7300.0,7700.0,7050.0,6550.0,6850.0,7050.0,7450.0,8050.0,8350.0,7950.0,7250.0,7050.0,7300.0,7700.0,7150.0,6650.0,6950.0,7150.0,7550.0,8150.0,8450.0,8050.0,7350.0,7150.0,8700.0,7800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1450.0,1380.0,1420.0,1470.0,1510.0,1390.0,1330.0,1360.0,1480.0,1520.0,1490.0,1560.0,1580.0,1490.0,1540.0,1560.0,1610.0,1500.0,1450.0,1470.0,1590.0,1630.0,1600.0,1680.0,1700.0,1610.0,1660.0,1690.0,1740.0,1620.0,1570.0,1590.0,1710.0,1760.0,1730.0,1810.0,1840.0,1740.0,1790.0,1820.0,1880.0,1760.0,1710.0,2200.0,1950.0,1900.0,1870.0,1950.0,1980.0,1900.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2050.0,1950.0,2000.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,2150.0,2200.0,2050.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2050.0,1980.0,2000.0,2120.0,2180.0,2150.0,2250.0,2300.0,2150.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2150.0,2080.0,2100.0,2220.0,2280.0,2250.0,2350.0,12000.0,4500.0,3000.0,2600.0,2500.0,2350.0,2280.0,2300.0,2420.0,2480.0,2450.0,2550.0,2650.0,2450.0,2500.0,2550.0,2600.0,2450.0,2380.0,2400.0,2520.0,2580.0,2550.0,2650.0,2750.0,2550.0,2600.0,2650.0,2700.0,2550.0,2480.0,2500.0,2620.0,2680.0,2650.0,2750.0],"meta/muse-ember":[9000.0,8600.0,8650.0,9050.0,9150.0,8900.0,8700.0,8200.0,9400.0,8800.0,9050.0,9800.0,9100.0,8100.0,8950.0,8350.0,9100.0,8750.0,8250.0,8400.0,8700.0,8950.0,8600.0,9450.0,8650.0,8200.0,8300.0,8450.0,8400.0,8650.0,8150.0,7900.0,8650.0,8200.0,8700.0,9050.0,8650.0,7600.0,8350.0,8000.0,8450.0,8250.0,8100.0,10500.0,9600.0,8100.0,8350.0,8900.0,8850.0,8250.0,11450.0,11050.0,9800.0,8600.0,8250.0,8000.0,8950.0,8600.0,8850.0,9550.0,8700.0,7900.0,8450.0,8150.0,8650.0,8550.0,7950.0,8050.0,8700.0,11300.0,9850.0,9150.0,12000.0,9100.0,8550.0,7800.0,8200.0,8050.0,7500.0,7750.0,8050.0,8200.0,8050.0,8600.0,29500.0,12700.0,8950.0,7700.0,8100.0,7950.0,7700.0,7350.0,8050.0,7950.0,9250.0,8600.0,9950.0,6950.0,8750.0,7300.0,7650.0,7350.0,7150.0,6800.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,8100.0,8800.0,6800.0,7150.0,7050.0,7450.0,8700.0,7700.0,6750.0,7400.0,7100.0,7300.0,7800.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[25600.0,24800.0,26300.0,26400.0,27600.0,27000.0,24300.0,24100.0,25300.0,26700.0,27400.0,28900.0,29600.0,28500.0,30200.0,30400.0,31800.0,31000.0,28000.0,27900.0,29200.0,30800.0,32000.0,33200.0,33200.0,32800.0,34300.0,34500.0,35900.0,35200.0,31800.0,31500.0,33100.0,34900.0,36200.0,37600.0,38400.0,37200.0,39200.0,39600.0,41200.0,40400.0,36500.0,36100.0,38000.0,40000.0,41500.0,43100.0,44300.0,43000.0,56500.0,49700.0,49600.0,46600.0,42100.0,41600.0,44000.0,46100.0,47900.0,49700.0,51200.0,49700.0,52300.0,52800.0,54900.0,53800.0,48700.0,48000.0,50800.0,53200.0,55300.0,57400.0,46200.0,44900.0,47200.0,47800.0,49500.0,48700.0,44000.0,43400.0,45900.0,48100.0,50000.0,51900.0,68000.0,38200.0,40300.0,40600.0,42200.0,41400.0,37400.0,37000.0,39000.0,40900.0,42600.0,44200.0,33100.0,32700.0,34200.0,34400.0,35800.0,35100.0,31700.0,31400.0,33000.0,34800.0,36100.0,37500.0,28300.0,27700.0,29200.0,29400.0,30600.0,30000.0,27100.0,26800.0,28300.0,29700.0,30900.0,32000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3040.0,2860.0,2790.0,3010.0,3270.0,3540.0,3820.0,3690.0,3410.0,3270.0,4380.0,5210.0,3870.0,3640.0,3710.0,4020.0,4370.0,4890.0,5680.0,7040.0,6410.0,5430.0,4970.0,5140.0,4510.0,4170.0,4480.0,6490.0,5860.0,5540.0,5290.0,5620.0,5330.0,4970.0,4740.0,5060.0,4310.0,3980.0,4170.0,4520.0,4930.0,5270.0,4960.0,5480.0,4910.0,4540.0,4680.0,5120.0,5720.0,6840.0,6110.0,4690.0,4820.0,5560.0,5910.0,5680.0,5430.0,7120.0,10120.0,12840.0,15460.0,13980.0,13140.0,11960.0,11280.0,12420.0,11560.0,10890.0,11940.0,13760.0,17840.0,21680.0,20540.0,18860.0,18120.0,16380.0,17620.0,18940.0,18320.0,17860.0,16940.0,18010.0,19180.0,20760.0,17680.0,16140.0,15380.0,14490.0,15860.0,17820.0,21100.0,19240.0,16910.0,16280.0,19340.0,43700.0,25160.0,22940.0,21620.0,21030.0,22680.0,29350.0,26410.0,24260.0,22570.0,23540.0,25810.0,27720.0,24380.0,22860.0,23570.0,24760.0,27480.0,30620.0,28740.0,32280.0,26840.0,25090.0,28960.0,31820.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[520.0,480.0,490.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,480.0,560.0,520.0,490.0,500.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,460.0,470.0,550.0,510.0,480.0,490.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,450.0,460.0,540.0,500.0,470.0,480.0,450.0,440.0,440.0,460.0,520.0,440.0,440.0,450.0,530.0,490.0,470.0,560.0,580.0,520.0,470.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,440.0,450.0,530.0,490.0,460.0,470.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,430.0,440.0,520.0,480.0,450.0,460.0,430.0,420.0,420.0,440.0,420.0,410.0,420.0,430.0,510.0,470.0,440.0,450.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,410.0,400.0,390.0,410.0,420.0,490.0,450.0,430.0,430.0,410.0,400.0,390.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,400.0,410.0,480.0,440.0,420.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,390.0,400.0,470.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1390.0,1075.0,1245.0,1090.0,1165.0,1050.0,1135.0,1260.0,1310.0,1245.0,1120.0,1480.0,1425.0,1115.0,1290.0,1130.0,1210.0,1100.0,1160.0,1255.0,1365.0,1295.0,1205.0,1505.0,1510.0,1170.0,1330.0,1210.0,1250.0,1150.0,1255.0,1350.0,1385.0,1340.0,1220.0,1600.0,1575.0,1210.0,1365.0,1255.0,1300.0,1195.0,1310.0,1400.0,1440.0,1410.0,1265.0,1670.0,1825.0,1540.0,1780.0,1830.0,1740.0,1705.0,1860.0,2850.0,2080.0,1810.0,1620.0,1950.0,1585.0,1240.0,1420.0,1275.0,1340.0,1230.0,1310.0,1525.0,1480.0,1450.0,1300.0,1685.0,1580.0,1320.0,1380.0,1245.0,1305.0,1190.0,1265.0,1345.0,1650.0,1500.0,1260.0,1660.0,1745.0,1360.0,1525.0,1400.0,1460.0,1325.0,1410.0,1560.0,1655.0,1570.0,1405.0,1810.0,1865.0,1450.0,1625.0,1465.0,1545.0,1425.0,1500.0,1675.0,1750.0,1675.0,1490.0,1935.0,1520.0,1210.0,1365.0,1235.0,1300.0,1185.0,1270.0,1355.0,1440.0,1400.0,1265.0,1620.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[720.0,680.0,740.0,700.0,690.0,720.0,750.0,810.0,690.0,710.0,670.0,740.0,700.0,680.0,720.0,710.0,700.0,730.0,760.0,820.0,700.0,720.0,680.0,760.0,730.0,690.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,760.0,790.0,850.0,730.0,750.0,700.0,780.0,760.0,720.0,820.0,780.0,760.0,800.0,1000.0,1250.0,850.0,800.0,760.0,850.0,820.0,780.0,900.0,850.0,880.0,920.0,900.0,980.0,830.0,850.0,820.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,870.0,850.0,900.0,940.0,1000.0,850.0,880.0,820.0,900.0,820.0,780.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,850.0,880.0,920.0,800.0,830.0,780.0,850.0,6200.0,2800.0,1500.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,850.0,880.0,820.0,900.0,800.0,760.0,820.0,790.0,770.0,810.0,840.0,880.0,760.0,780.0,740.0,810.0,780.0,740.0,800.0,770.0,750.0,790.0,820.0,860.0,740.0,760.0,720.0,790.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[546.0,546.0,530.0,520.0,504.0,484.0,478.0,489.0,520.0,530.0,520.0,510.0,504.0,504.0,490.0,480.0,466.0,446.0,442.0,451.0,480.0,490.0,480.0,470.0,483.0,483.0,469.0,460.0,446.0,428.0,423.0,432.0,460.0,469.0,460.0,451.0,452.0,452.0,438.0,430.0,417.0,400.0,396.0,404.0,430.0,439.0,430.0,421.0,462.0,462.0,470.0,468.0,427.0,409.0,405.0,414.0,440.0,449.0,440.0,431.0,420.0,420.0,408.0,400.0,388.0,372.0,368.0,376.0,400.0,408.0,400.0,392.0,389.0,389.0,378.0,370.0,359.0,340.0,340.0,348.0,370.0,377.0,370.0,363.0,1150.0,620.0,430.0,400.0,380.0,355.0,350.0,357.0,380.0,387.0,380.0,372.0,347.0,347.0,337.0,330.0,317.0,304.0,302.0,309.0,330.0,337.0,330.0,323.0,315.0,315.0,306.0,300.0,288.0,276.0,274.0,280.0,300.0,306.0,300.0,294.0]}},{"title":"Wigan","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Wigan\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[11935,11650,13185,12341,12626,13284,13319,11702,11653,12804,11473,11904,18100,12545,12785,11600,14626,11174,11500,11936,10220,10602,10524,11298,13714,20938,14174,11599,11152,10138,11683,12405,11363,12031,12673,12528,12846,12584,12963,11583,13172,10488,10568,11322,11536,13799,11871,12891,13702,11897,10685,13977,12149,10114,17051,12701,11961,16116,11404,12181,12854,10830,11200,13724,12129,10112,11822,11318,11334,12108,11443,10988,12418,10945,11338,11230,12916,10105,11978,12683,12565,12337,12283,11271,13613,15149,15475,12532,12452,11963,11641,13616,12749,13857,13849,13512,22627,15300,13458,12147,11996,11042,12205,13103,10895,12308,11394,15297,19435,12984,13082,11162,11039,12923,13762,17095,13568,12955,13748,10687],"flat_reference_value":16989.221377487316,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[12500.0,11900.0,13200.0,12700.0,13100.0,12000.0,12400.0,12700.0,13100.0,13700.0,13200.0,12600.0,13600.0,12700.0,13600.0,13000.0,13400.0,12300.0,12900.0,13200.0,13500.0,14100.0,13600.0,13000.0,14400.0,21000.0,15700.0,13700.0,14000.0,12800.0,13300.0,13700.0,13900.0,14500.0,14000.0,13400.0,14500.0,13400.0,14500.0,13900.0,14200.0,13000.0,13600.0,14000.0,14100.0,14800.0,14200.0,13600.0,14800.0,13800.0,15400.0,14600.0,14300.0,13600.0,19000.0,15100.0,14500.0,15100.0,14700.0,14100.0,15600.0,14300.0,15400.0,14600.0,14900.0,13800.0,14300.0,14700.0,15000.0,15500.0,14900.0,14300.0,15500.0,14300.0,15300.0,14700.0,15100.0,13800.0,14400.0,14700.0,14900.0,16000.0,15400.0,14300.0,15700.0,14300.0,15400.0,14800.0,15200.0,14000.0,14500.0,14900.0,15100.0,15800.0,15100.0,14500.0,15800.0,15300.0,15500.0,14900.0,15300.0,14000.0,14600.0,14900.0,15100.0,15700.0,15000.0,14400.0,15500.0,14200.0,15100.0,14500.0,14800.0,13600.0,14100.0,14400.0,14600.0,15200.0,14500.0,14000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[28400.0,25900.0,27300.0,26800.0,29500.0,31200.0,28100.0,27900.0,26700.0,27100.0,25800.0,24600.0,28200.0,25100.0,27400.0,26900.0,27600.0,29800.0,27500.0,27800.0,26400.0,26900.0,25600.0,24300.0,28100.0,37400.0,29200.0,27100.0,27800.0,26500.0,27900.0,28300.0,26600.0,27000.0,25700.0,24500.0,28500.0,25400.0,27600.0,26800.0,27200.0,26400.0,27700.0,28100.0,26900.0,27400.0,28300.0,31600.0,31900.0,29400.0,28100.0,28900.0,29600.0,28800.0,33400.0,30200.0,29500.0,33800.0,28900.0,27400.0,31200.0,28100.0,29800.0,28700.0,29100.0,27900.0,28600.0,28900.0,27400.0,27800.0,26500.0,25400.0,28600.0,25300.0,27100.0,26800.0,27400.0,26100.0,27200.0,27500.0,26300.0,26700.0,25400.0,24200.0,27300.0,24400.0,26200.0,25800.0,26500.0,25100.0,26000.0,26400.0,25300.0,28200.0,24600.0,23500.0,26400.0,28900.0,25700.0,24900.0,25600.0,26300.0,28500.0,25800.0,24500.0,26100.0,23700.0,22800.0,25300.0,22600.0,24400.0,23900.0,24500.0,23600.0,24300.0,24700.0,23400.0,23800.0,22500.0,21700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[28400.0,27100.0,28900.0,27800.0,27200.0,25100.0,26300.0,25400.0,26800.0,28100.0,27500.0,25900.0,27900.0,26300.0,28400.0,26800.0,26100.0,24200.0,25100.0,25500.0,26400.0,27800.0,27200.0,25800.0,28100.0,35800.0,30200.0,28100.0,26900.0,23800.0,24600.0,25900.0,26800.0,28200.0,27400.0,25600.0,27500.0,25800.0,27900.0,26200.0,25400.0,23600.0,24800.0,25500.0,26700.0,28100.0,27100.0,24900.0,26500.0,25200.0,28300.0,32100.0,30400.0,28200.0,45800.0,33200.0,28100.0,27400.0,26200.0,24800.0,26100.0,24500.0,26400.0,25100.0,24300.0,22800.0,23900.0,24600.0,24200.0,25800.0,25100.0,23700.0,25400.0,23800.0,25900.0,26800.0,25100.0,22600.0,22400.0,23800.0,24700.0,25800.0,24900.0,23100.0,24600.0,23200.0,25100.0,24200.0,23400.0,21500.0,22100.0,22900.0,23800.0,25600.0,24400.0,22800.0,24100.0,30800.0,25200.0,23400.0,22500.0,21100.0,21800.0,22600.0,23700.0,25400.0,24100.0,22600.0,23500.0,22100.0,24200.0,22800.0,21900.0,20400.0,21200.0,21800.0,22900.0,24500.0,23400.0,22100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[32000.0,30000.0,30500.0,29500.0,29000.0,28000.0,27500.0,27000.0,28000.0,30500.0,28500.0,26000.0,29500.0,28500.0,28000.0,27000.0,26500.0,25500.0,25000.0,24500.0,25500.0,26500.0,26000.0,23500.0,26500.0,25500.0,25500.0,24500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,22500.0,23500.0,26000.0,24000.0,21500.0,24500.0,23000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,22500.0,22000.0,20000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25500.0,24000.0,22500.0,26000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,19500.0,21500.0,20000.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,17500.0,19500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,16500.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,19500.0,17500.0,16000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,18500.0,17000.0,15500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,17000.0,16500.0,15000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[32000.0,30500.0,30500.0,29500.0,30500.0,28500.0,29000.0,29500.0,28500.0,30500.0,28500.0,27000.0,30500.0,28500.0,29000.0,27500.0,28000.0,26500.0,27000.0,27500.0,26500.0,27500.0,27000.0,26000.0,29500.0,35000.0,31000.0,27500.0,27500.0,26000.0,26500.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,26500.0,25000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26500.0,26000.0,26000.0,24500.0,25500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25500.0,25000.0,24000.0,26500.0,25000.0,25500.0,27000.0,27500.0,26500.0,30000.0,26500.0,25000.0,26500.0,25500.0,24500.0,27000.0,25000.0,25500.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23500.0,23500.0,22500.0,23000.0,22500.0,21500.0,23500.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,23000.0,21500.0,22000.0,22500.0,21500.0,22500.0,21500.0,21000.0,23000.0,21500.0,22000.0,21500.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,22000.0,21000.0,23500.0,21500.0,20500.0,22500.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21500.0,20500.0,21000.0,21500.0,20500.0,22500.0,20500.0,19500.0,21500.0,20000.0,20500.0,20000.0,20500.0,19500.0,20000.0,20500.0,19500.0,21000.0,19500.0,19000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[11200.0,11050.0,11400.0,12100.0,12550.0,12700.0,13300.0,12450.0,11600.0,13050.0,11100.0,10700.0,11000.0,10650.0,11200.0,11750.0,11800.0,12400.0,12900.0,12200.0,11300.0,11200.0,10850.0,10400.0,10800.0,10550.0,11000.0,11700.0,11850.0,12200.0,12700.0,12000.0,11100.0,12450.0,10700.0,10200.0,10300.0,10100.0,10500.0,10800.0,11000.0,11700.0,12100.0,11500.0,10600.0,10500.0,10200.0,10550.0,10600.0,10400.0,11400.0,12000.0,11700.0,12200.0,13600.0,11800.0,10900.0,10800.0,10900.0,10000.0,10000.0,9800.0,10200.0,10500.0,10700.0,11300.0,11700.0,11100.0,10300.0,10200.0,9900.0,9500.0,9800.0,9600.0,10000.0,10700.0,12100.0,11100.0,11500.0,10900.0,10100.0,10000.0,9700.0,9300.0,9600.0,9400.0,9800.0,10100.0,10300.0,10900.0,11300.0,10700.0,9900.0,10900.0,9500.0,9100.0,9400.0,10000.0,9600.0,9900.0,10100.0,11500.0,11100.0,10500.0,9700.0,10100.0,9300.0,8900.0,9300.0,9100.0,9500.0,9800.0,10000.0,11000.0,10900.0,10400.0,9600.0,9900.0,9200.0,8800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[10500.0,9400.0,9900.0,9300.0,9700.0,10500.0,9300.0,9900.0,9200.0,9750.0,9100.0,8100.0,10200.0,9200.0,9700.0,9100.0,9900.0,10100.0,9100.0,9700.0,9000.0,9500.0,8900.0,7900.0,9900.0,8900.0,9300.0,8800.0,9200.0,9100.0,8900.0,9400.0,8700.0,9200.0,8600.0,7600.0,9600.0,8600.0,9000.0,8500.0,8800.0,8700.0,8600.0,9100.0,8400.0,8900.0,8500.0,7700.0,9200.0,8600.0,10500.0,11800.0,10200.0,9200.0,11300.0,9300.0,8600.0,8900.0,8700.0,7400.0,9200.0,8200.0,8600.0,8100.0,8400.0,8300.0,8100.0,8700.0,8000.0,8450.0,7950.0,7000.0,8800.0,7900.0,8300.0,7800.0,8100.0,8000.0,7850.0,8400.0,7750.0,8200.0,7700.0,6800.0,8600.0,7700.0,8100.0,7600.0,7900.0,7850.0,7650.0,8200.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,6600.0,8400.0,8100.0,7900.0,7400.0,7700.0,8000.0,8800.0,7800.0,7300.0,7750.0,7300.0,6400.0,8100.0,7200.0,7600.0,7100.0,7400.0,7300.0,7150.0,7700.0,7050.0,7500.0,7000.0,6200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[49500.0,49000.0,52800.0,55000.0,56700.0,61400.0,64300.0,62700.0,56100.0,58000.0,51200.0,48400.0,47700.0,47200.0,50900.0,53000.0,57600.0,57200.0,62000.0,63400.0,54100.0,53000.0,49300.0,46600.0,46800.0,46300.0,49900.0,52000.0,53600.0,56200.0,60800.0,59300.0,53000.0,56000.0,48400.0,45800.0,45900.0,45400.0,49000.0,51000.0,52500.0,55100.0,59700.0,58100.0,52000.0,51500.0,47400.0,44900.0,48600.0,48100.0,53800.0,57000.0,55600.0,58300.0,71200.0,64600.0,55100.0,54000.0,50200.0,47500.0,46800.0,46300.0,49900.0,52000.0,53600.0,56200.0,60800.0,59300.0,53000.0,52000.0,48400.0,45800.0,45000.0,44500.0,48000.0,50000.0,55000.0,54000.0,58500.0,57000.0,51000.0,52500.0,48000.0,44000.0,42300.0,41800.0,45100.0,47000.0,50900.0,50800.0,55000.0,53600.0,47900.0,47000.0,43700.0,41400.0,40500.0,43100.0,43200.0,45000.0,46400.0,52100.0,52700.0,51300.0,45900.0,50000.0,41900.0,39600.0,38700.0,38300.0,41300.0,43000.0,44300.0,46400.0,50300.0,49000.0,43900.0,46000.0,40000.0,37800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[41000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36500.0,35500.0,35000.0,35500.0,38500.0,43000.0,39000.0,36000.0,39000.0,36500.0,37000.0,35500.0,35000.0,34000.0,33500.0,34000.0,36500.0,39000.0,37000.0,34500.0,38000.0,35500.0,36000.0,34500.0,34000.0,33000.0,32500.0,33000.0,35500.0,41000.0,37000.0,34000.0,37000.0,34500.0,35000.0,33500.0,33000.0,32000.0,31500.0,32000.0,34500.0,36500.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,52000.0,45000.0,36000.0,35000.0,39000.0,34000.0,35000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31500.0,31000.0,30000.0,29500.0,30000.0,32500.0,34500.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,30500.0,31000.0,29500.0,29000.0,28000.0,27500.0,28000.0,30500.0,32500.0,31000.0,29000.0,33000.0,30500.0,31000.0,29500.0,30000.0,28500.0,28000.0,28500.0,31000.0,37000.0,32000.0,29500.0,32000.0,36000.0,31000.0,29500.0,30000.0,35000.0,28500.0,29000.0,31500.0,38000.0,32000.0,29500.0,31000.0,28500.0,29000.0,27500.0,28000.0,26500.0,26000.0,26500.0,29000.0,31000.0,29500.0,27500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[16800.0,17900.0,19100.0,18600.0,26500.0,23500.0,19800.0,20000.0,20800.0,24500.0,17900.0,16500.0,16000.0,16800.0,17800.0,17600.0,24800.0,23700.0,18800.0,18700.0,19300.0,20000.0,17100.0,15700.0,15300.0,23100.0,17100.0,17400.0,24300.0,18800.0,18000.0,17600.0,18500.0,22400.0,16300.0,15000.0,14600.0,15400.0,16300.0,16200.0,19700.0,17900.0,17200.0,17100.0,17600.0,16400.0,15600.0,18600.0,14800.0,15200.0,20100.0,21400.0,19100.0,17800.0,34500.0,24900.0,17900.0,19400.0,15800.0,16200.0,13900.0,14600.0,15500.0,15300.0,18200.0,16600.0,16300.0,16200.0,16800.0,15500.0,14800.0,13600.0,13000.0,13600.0,14400.0,17300.0,21600.0,15400.0,15200.0,15100.0,18300.0,14500.0,13800.0,12700.0,11900.0,12400.0,24300.0,16700.0,22300.0,18500.0,13900.0,13600.0,14300.0,17800.0,12600.0,11600.0,11100.0,14000.0,12300.0,12200.0,12700.0,13200.0,17400.0,12600.0,13300.0,17000.0,11700.0,10800.0,10200.0,10500.0,11100.0,11300.0,18600.0,12200.0,12000.0,11700.0,12300.0,13700.0,10900.0,10000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[5300.0,5410.0,5570.0,5620.0,5570.0,5190.0,4980.0,8140.0,5510.0,8590.0,5570.0,5300.0,5700.0,5810.0,5990.0,6040.0,8980.0,5590.0,5360.0,8210.0,5930.0,8000.0,5990.0,5700.0,6200.0,6320.0,6510.0,9860.0,8460.0,6080.0,5830.0,9520.0,6450.0,10040.0,6510.0,6200.0,6800.0,6940.0,7140.0,7210.0,9640.0,6660.0,6390.0,6530.0,7070.0,7340.0,7140.0,6800.0,7600.0,7750.0,15160.0,11280.0,9980.0,7820.0,8220.0,7300.0,7900.0,8210.0,7980.0,7600.0,6700.0,6830.0,7040.0,7100.0,7040.0,6570.0,6300.0,6430.0,6970.0,7240.0,7040.0,6700.0,6100.0,6220.0,6410.0,9050.0,8330.0,5980.0,5730.0,5860.0,6340.0,6590.0,6410.0,6100.0,5600.0,5710.0,5880.0,5940.0,7940.0,5490.0,5260.0,5380.0,5820.0,6050.0,5880.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,5460.0,5510.0,5460.0,5100.0,4890.0,8490.0,5410.0,8700.0,5460.0,5200.0,4700.0,4790.0,4940.0,4980.0,6910.0,4610.0,4420.0,4510.0,4890.0,5080.0,4940.0,4700.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6900.0,6600.0,6500.0,6200.0,6400.0,7000.0,5900.0,6000.0,6500.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,7100.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,7200.0,6700.0,6100.0,6300.0,6800.0,7400.0,7200.0,6800.0,8400.0,8500.0,7600.0,6900.0,7200.0,7000.0,6400.0,6700.0,7800.0,8500.0,7900.0,6900.0,7400.0,7100.0,7000.0,6700.0,7100.0,7000.0,6300.0,6600.0,7900.0,10100.0,8200.0,7100.0,7500.0,7200.0,9400.0,11100.0,10300.0,8200.0,7400.0,7500.0,8500.0,9700.0,8900.0,8300.0,10200.0,9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,9100.0,8300.0,7800.0,8000.0,9500.0,11100.0,9500.0,8700.0,9300.0,8800.0,8700.0,8100.0,8400.0,8200.0,7400.0,7700.0,8700.0,9600.0,9100.0,8300.0,9000.0,8500.0,8400.0,7900.0,8200.0,8000.0,7300.0,7600.0,8500.0,9300.0,8900.0,8000.0,8800.0,8300.0,8200.0,7700.0,8000.0,7900.0,7200.0,7500.0,8400.0,9400.0,9000.0,8200.0,8700.0,8200.0,8100.0,7600.0,7900.0,7800.0,7100.0,7400.0,8300.0,9200.0,8800.0,8000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,47000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,43000.0,41000.0,42000.0,42000.0,45000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,44000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[7300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6000.0,6100.0,5850.0,5500.0,6300.0,7600.0,8000.0,6900.0,6200.0,7900.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6600.0,6300.0,5900.0,6800.0,8600.0,10800.0,8800.0,6700.0,7800.0,7300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6500.0,6300.0,5800.0,6700.0,8300.0,9800.0,8200.0,6800.0,8000.0,7400.0,7000.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6000.0,6800.0,8400.0,8200.0,7500.0,6800.0,8700.0,8100.0,7800.0,7600.0,7700.0,7500.0,6900.0,7900.0,9700.0,12000.0,9500.0,7600.0,9000.0,8400.0,7900.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,6800.0,7800.0,9400.0,10000.0,8300.0,7600.0,20000.0,10000.0,8800.0,7600.0,9200.0,7500.0,7000.0,8500.0,10600.0,12200.0,8800.0,7800.0,9800.0,9400.0,9000.0,8400.0,9200.0,8000.0,7500.0,9000.0,10600.0,13800.0,9800.0,8600.0,9700.0,9200.0,8800.0,8200.0,8600.0,7800.0,7300.0,8600.0,10200.0,12800.0,9500.0,8100.0,9400.0,8900.0,8500.0,7900.0,8300.0,7500.0,7000.0,8300.0,9800.0,11200.0,8600.0,7900.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[4800.0,4300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,5500.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4900.0,4300.0,4000.0,4400.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,5100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4700.0,4400.0,4100.0,4500.0,4800.0,4700.0,5000.0,5900.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,4400.0,4100.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,4700.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,4800.0,4900.0,5100.0,6500.0,10500.0,8500.0,6500.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,4600.0,4300.0,4800.0,4500.0,4800.0,5000.0,5600.0,5300.0,4900.0,4800.0,4600.0,5000.0,4600.0,4300.0,4800.0,4600.0,4900.0,5200.0,5700.0,5400.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,5100.0,4800.0,4500.0,5000.0,4800.0,5200.0,5400.0,6000.0,5600.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,5200.0,5000.0,5500.0,6000.0,6800.0,6500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5600.0,5200.0,4900.0,5300.0,5100.0,5500.0,5700.0,6200.0,5900.0,5500.0,5300.0,5100.0,5500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[78800.0,76500.0,77300.0,73500.0,72800.0,69800.0,67500.0,66000.0,76500.0,77300.0,76500.0,75000.0,75600.0,73400.0,74200.0,70600.0,69800.0,67000.0,64800.0,63400.0,73400.0,74200.0,73400.0,72000.0,73500.0,71400.0,72100.0,68600.0,67900.0,65100.0,63000.0,61600.0,71400.0,72100.0,71400.0,70000.0,71400.0,69400.0,70000.0,66600.0,66000.0,63200.0,61200.0,59800.0,69400.0,70000.0,69400.0,68000.0,75600.0,73400.0,89000.0,81200.0,73300.0,67000.0,64800.0,63400.0,73400.0,74200.0,73400.0,72000.0,69300.0,67300.0,68000.0,64700.0,64000.0,61400.0,59400.0,58100.0,67300.0,68000.0,67300.0,66000.0,65100.0,63200.0,63900.0,60800.0,60100.0,57700.0,55800.0,54600.0,63200.0,63900.0,63200.0,62000.0,58800.0,57100.0,57700.0,54900.0,54300.0,52100.0,50400.0,49300.0,57100.0,57700.0,57100.0,56000.0,52500.0,51000.0,51500.0,49000.0,48500.0,46500.0,45000.0,44000.0,51000.0,51500.0,51000.0,50000.0,46200.0,44900.0,45300.0,43100.0,42700.0,40900.0,39600.0,38700.0,44900.0,45300.0,44900.0,44000.0]}},{"title":"Concatenation","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Concatenation\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[14099,14690,13779,12339,11416,10480,8852,9911,12004,11939,11271,9527,11338,11960,11236,14408,11350,9610,9393,9399,12087,13973,12695,10593,11737,10980,11493,10784,10215,10349,9714,9861,11408,12339,11004,9995,11169,13549,12849,10434,10005,8325,7861,8475,10219,11191,10313,9522,10465,9940,9249,10437,9211,8714,8346,8888,10534,11967,11499,9965,9531,9428,10435,7361,6444,5934,8395,8473,10046,9657,8856,7840,9028,8995,8331,6977,6769,6179,6581,6596,8216,7893,8010,6044,7244,7181,7914,6738,7175,6597,6546,6034,6950,7441,7436,6523,8583,7143,7644,7096,6762,5520,5739,5033,5888,5565,5290,7692,7034,6827,5895,4993,4415,3615,4407,4167,4470,4796,4131,4116],"flat_reference_value":17022.921204336464,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[15200.0,15700.0,16400.0,15800.0,15300.0,13100.0,12500.0,13200.0,15700.0,17100.0,16900.0,14300.0,16000.0,16300.0,17400.0,16600.0,16300.0,14100.0,13500.0,14300.0,16600.0,18100.0,17700.0,15000.0,16900.0,17100.0,18400.0,17800.0,17200.0,14900.0,14200.0,15100.0,17600.0,19000.0,18500.0,15700.0,17800.0,17900.0,19000.0,18700.0,18100.0,15600.0,15000.0,15900.0,18400.0,19900.0,19300.0,16500.0,18700.0,18700.0,19200.0,18200.0,18000.0,16400.0,15900.0,16900.0,19600.0,21100.0,20700.0,17700.0,19900.0,19600.0,21300.0,20700.0,19700.0,17000.0,16200.0,17500.0,20100.0,21600.0,21200.0,17800.0,19300.0,19100.0,20800.0,19800.0,19100.0,16500.0,15600.0,16800.0,19300.0,20800.0,20200.0,17000.0,18500.0,18400.0,19800.0,18800.0,18300.0,15800.0,14900.0,16000.0,18300.0,19800.0,19300.0,16100.0,17700.0,17600.0,18500.0,18000.0,17400.0,15000.0,14200.0,15100.0,17400.0,18700.0,18000.0,15100.0,16600.0,16300.0,17400.0,16900.0,16200.0,14000.0,13400.0,14200.0,16300.0,17600.0,16900.0,14200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[24800.0,26900.0,27600.0,26400.0,24500.0,21800.0,20400.0,21900.0,27800.0,29100.0,27400.0,22100.0,25100.0,26500.0,28200.0,25800.0,24300.0,21400.0,19900.0,21500.0,27200.0,28800.0,26900.0,21300.0,24400.0,25600.0,26800.0,25400.0,23600.0,20300.0,19400.0,20800.0,26100.0,27900.0,25700.0,20400.0,23700.0,24800.0,25900.0,24600.0,23100.0,19600.0,19100.0,20200.0,25600.0,27300.0,24900.0,19900.0,23200.0,24300.0,22800.0,24500.0,23400.0,21100.0,20300.0,20900.0,25800.0,27100.0,24800.0,20500.0,23400.0,24100.0,25500.0,24000.0,22200.0,19500.0,18600.0,19700.0,24400.0,25600.0,23800.0,19100.0,21900.0,22600.0,23900.0,22100.0,20800.0,18200.0,17300.0,18500.0,22900.0,23800.0,21900.0,17200.0,19600.0,20100.0,20800.0,18900.0,17800.0,15400.0,14600.0,15500.0,18900.0,19700.0,18100.0,14400.0,16300.0,16800.0,17200.0,16400.0,15200.0,13100.0,12600.0,13200.0,16100.0,16900.0,15300.0,12300.0,13900.0,14300.0,14900.0,14100.0,13100.0,11400.0,10900.0,11500.0,14000.0,14600.0,13300.0,10800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[27800.0,32100.0,33900.0,31500.0,27400.0,21800.0,19500.0,21600.0,30200.0,34800.0,34200.0,24100.0,26900.0,31200.0,32800.0,30100.0,26500.0,21200.0,19100.0,21000.0,29400.0,33500.0,33100.0,23400.0,26100.0,29800.0,31500.0,29200.0,25400.0,20100.0,18200.0,20300.0,28100.0,32200.0,31700.0,22300.0,24900.0,28500.0,29900.0,27800.0,24100.0,19200.0,17400.0,19300.0,26800.0,30700.0,29800.0,21100.0,23800.0,27300.0,26200.0,26900.0,23500.0,18900.0,17100.0,18800.0,25700.0,29400.0,28600.0,20400.0,22400.0,25800.0,27100.0,24900.0,21800.0,17300.0,15800.0,17400.0,23900.0,27200.0,26500.0,18900.0,20800.0,23700.0,25100.0,23100.0,20100.0,15900.0,14500.0,16000.0,22100.0,25200.0,24300.0,17100.0,18700.0,21400.0,22600.0,20800.0,18100.0,14200.0,13100.0,14400.0,19800.0,22400.0,21800.0,15300.0,16800.0,19200.0,20300.0,18600.0,16200.0,12800.0,11700.0,13000.0,17900.0,20200.0,19500.0,13800.0,15300.0,17500.0,18400.0,16900.0,14700.0,11600.0,10700.0,11900.0,16300.0,18400.0,17800.0,12600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[17000.0,18800.0,19800.0,19000.0,18000.0,15300.0,14400.0,15200.0,18000.0,19800.0,19900.0,15500.0,16200.0,17900.0,18800.0,17900.0,17100.0,14500.0,13600.0,14400.0,17000.0,18700.0,18800.0,14600.0,15300.0,16900.0,17700.0,16900.0,16100.0,13700.0,12900.0,13700.0,16000.0,17600.0,17700.0,13700.0,14400.0,15900.0,16600.0,15900.0,15100.0,12800.0,12100.0,12800.0,15100.0,16600.0,16600.0,12900.0,14200.0,15700.0,16900.0,17200.0,16000.0,13000.0,12200.0,12800.0,14900.0,16200.0,16200.0,12500.0,12900.0,14200.0,14800.0,14100.0,13400.0,11300.0,10600.0,11200.0,13200.0,14400.0,14400.0,11100.0,11600.0,12800.0,13400.0,12700.0,12100.0,10200.0,9600.0,10200.0,12000.0,13100.0,13100.0,10100.0,10600.0,11600.0,12000.0,11400.0,10800.0,9100.0,8500.0,9000.0,10600.0,11500.0,11500.0,8800.0,9200.0,10100.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7900.0,9300.0,10100.0,10100.0,7800.0,8200.0,9000.0,9300.0,8900.0,8400.0,7100.0,6700.0,7000.0,8300.0,9000.0,9000.0,6900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[21500.0,23500.0,24000.0,22500.0,21500.0,19000.0,17500.0,18500.0,23000.0,24500.0,23500.0,19000.0,20500.0,22000.0,22500.0,20500.0,20000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,21000.0,22500.0,21500.0,17000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20500.0,19000.0,18500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,19000.0,20500.0,19500.0,15500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17000.0,16500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,14000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16500.0,14500.0,13500.0,13500.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,13500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,14000.0,13500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,13500.0,14500.0,13500.0,11500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,8500.0,8200.0,8200.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,8200.0,9000.0,9000.0,9200.0,8700.0,8500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7500.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,7500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[22100.0,22300.0,21700.0,19800.0,19100.0,16900.0,16100.0,16800.0,21500.0,22500.0,20900.0,17200.0,23100.0,23500.0,22700.0,21200.0,19900.0,17800.0,16600.0,18000.0,22800.0,23600.0,22000.0,17700.0,24300.0,24500.0,23900.0,21800.0,21000.0,18500.0,17400.0,18900.0,23700.0,24800.0,23000.0,18600.0,25200.0,25900.0,24700.0,23200.0,21700.0,19600.0,18300.0,19700.0,25000.0,25600.0,24300.0,19400.0,26300.0,27000.0,28500.0,27600.0,25100.0,21400.0,19500.0,20600.0,26100.0,27000.0,25300.0,20300.0,24700.0,25300.0,24200.0,22400.0,21300.0,19100.0,18100.0,19000.0,24400.0,25100.0,23600.0,19200.0,23000.0,23600.0,22500.0,21100.0,19900.0,17900.0,16700.0,17800.0,22700.0,23400.0,22000.0,17800.0,21400.0,21900.0,21000.0,19400.0,18600.0,16500.0,15500.0,16600.0,21100.0,21700.0,20500.0,16600.0,20300.0,20800.0,20000.0,18400.0,17600.0,15700.0,14900.0,15800.0,20100.0,20600.0,19500.0,15700.0,19200.0,19700.0,18800.0,17400.0,16700.0,14900.0,14100.0,15000.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,14900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[7290.0,6810.0,7353.0,6757.0,6360.0,5415.0,5200.0,5746.0,6689.0,7625.0,7079.0,4992.0,7777.0,7560.0,7683.0,7571.0,6584.0,6069.0,5432.0,6010.0,7350.0,7970.0,7854.0,5656.0,8168.0,8262.0,8400.0,7718.0,7196.0,6311.0,6180.0,6248.0,8033.0,8625.0,8085.0,6000.0,8976.0,8554.0,9050.0,8400.0,7448.0,6868.0,6336.0,6936.0,8316.0,9292.0,8800.0,6208.0,9350.0,9272.0,11424.0,11156.0,8883.0,7586.0,6800.0,7370.0,9193.0,9873.0,9350.0,6664.0,9999.0,9720.0,9979.0,9639.0,8550.0,7574.0,7272.0,7650.0,9639.0,10350.0,9801.0,7056.0,9350.0,8996.0,9615.0,8836.0,8237.0,7225.0,6664.0,7297.0,8925.0,9580.0,9444.0,6800.0,8276.0,8208.0,8342.0,8060.0,7220.0,6395.0,6080.0,6589.0,7900.0,8740.0,8193.0,6019.0,7333.0,7128.0,7318.0,6930.0,6333.0,5498.0,5280.0,5666.0,6930.0,7742.0,7187.0,5174.0,6600.0,6545.0,6720.0,6237.0,5700.0,5151.0,4752.0,5100.0,6363.0,6900.0,6534.0,4800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[26800.0,26700.0,25800.0,25100.0,23200.0,21000.0,19500.0,21400.0,25900.0,27300.0,27200.0,24000.0,29000.0,28800.0,27900.0,27200.0,25000.0,22700.0,21100.0,23500.0,27600.0,29900.0,29100.0,25900.0,32100.0,31100.0,30900.0,29400.0,27800.0,24500.0,23400.0,25300.0,30800.0,32300.0,32100.0,28500.0,34900.0,33800.0,33600.0,31900.0,30100.0,26600.0,25400.0,27500.0,33300.0,35100.0,34900.0,31000.0,38800.0,37500.0,40300.0,39200.0,35800.0,30300.0,28800.0,31300.0,38800.0,40700.0,39800.0,34700.0,42100.0,40700.0,40500.0,38600.0,36300.0,32100.0,30700.0,33200.0,40100.0,42400.0,42000.0,37300.0,44900.0,43500.0,43100.0,41100.0,38700.0,34200.0,32700.0,35400.0,42800.0,45100.0,44900.0,39800.0,50200.0,49300.0,48100.0,45200.0,42300.0,37300.0,35600.0,38800.0,46800.0,49200.0,49100.0,43500.0,53800.0,52200.0,51800.0,49300.0,46500.0,41300.0,39300.0,42800.0,51300.0,54200.0,53800.0,47700.0,58900.0,57000.0,56500.0,53900.0,50700.0,44900.0,42800.0,46500.0,56000.0,59200.0,58600.0,52200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1240.0,1215.0,1150.0,1120.0,1085.0,990.0,960.0,1045.0,1280.0,1305.0,1230.0,1105.0,1300.0,1270.0,1210.0,1185.0,1130.0,1040.0,1015.0,1090.0,1335.0,1360.0,1285.0,1160.0,1345.0,1320.0,1260.0,1235.0,1180.0,1085.0,1050.0,1135.0,1390.0,1415.0,1335.0,1210.0,1400.0,1375.0,1310.0,1285.0,1225.0,1130.0,1090.0,1180.0,1445.0,1470.0,1390.0,1260.0,1500.0,1480.0,1450.0,1430.0,1350.0,1250.0,1210.0,1300.0,1560.0,1580.0,1530.0,1390.0,1470.0,1430.0,1390.0,1360.0,1290.0,1200.0,1160.0,1250.0,1500.0,1520.0,1470.0,1335.0,1410.0,1375.0,1335.0,1305.0,1240.0,1150.0,1110.0,1200.0,1440.0,1465.0,1410.0,1280.0,1320.0,1285.0,1250.0,1225.0,1165.0,1080.0,1040.0,1125.0,1350.0,1370.0,1320.0,1200.0,1275.0,1240.0,1205.0,1180.0,1120.0,1040.0,1005.0,1085.0,1300.0,1320.0,1275.0,1155.0,1230.0,1195.0,1160.0,1140.0,1080.0,1000.0,970.0,1050.0,1255.0,1280.0,1230.0,1115.0],"meta/muse-ember":[14500.0,15300.0,15100.0,13300.0,13400.0,11300.0,11200.0,13200.0,15600.0,15900.0,13600.0,12000.0,16000.0,15200.0,15100.0,14900.0,13400.0,12600.0,10700.0,13300.0,17000.0,15800.0,16000.0,13000.0,15800.0,17200.0,15700.0,15300.0,13700.0,12600.0,12200.0,13400.0,17500.0,17900.0,15700.0,13900.0,17100.0,16700.0,16900.0,15600.0,14700.0,12500.0,13100.0,14200.0,17500.0,18100.0,17300.0,13500.0,18000.0,18100.0,19900.0,18600.0,16100.0,13400.0,13000.0,15700.0,19600.0,18400.0,17600.0,14200.0,19100.0,18700.0,18400.0,17800.0,16000.0,15300.0,13100.0,15900.0,19800.0,20400.0,17800.0,15900.0,18700.0,19800.0,18300.0,17800.0,16400.0,15100.0,13500.0,16500.0,20300.0,19700.0,18500.0,15400.0,17300.0,18500.0,17300.0,17000.0,15200.0,13700.0,13100.0,15400.0,19600.0,18300.0,17500.0,14700.0,17500.0,17300.0,16800.0,15400.0,15000.0,12600.0,12600.0,14800.0,18400.0,17600.0,16800.0,13700.0,16800.0,17400.0,15800.0,15500.0,14100.0,12900.0,12300.0,13800.0,18200.0,17400.0,16400.0,13500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[27170.0,27976.0,28782.0,27716.0,26390.0,23764.0,21632.0,22438.0,29042.0,28236.0,26936.0,21918.0,30305.0,31204.0,32103.0,30914.0,29435.0,26506.0,24128.0,25027.0,32393.0,31494.0,30044.0,24447.0,33440.0,34432.0,35424.0,34112.0,32480.0,29248.0,26624.0,27616.0,35744.0,34752.0,33152.0,26976.0,36575.0,37660.0,38745.0,37310.0,35525.0,31990.0,29120.0,30205.0,39095.0,38010.0,36260.0,29505.0,39188.0,41560.0,46494.0,47170.0,41869.0,35989.0,33072.0,33010.0,41888.0,40725.0,38850.0,31613.0,44935.0,46268.0,47601.0,45838.0,43645.0,39302.0,35776.0,37109.0,48031.0,46698.0,44548.0,36249.0,43368.0,44654.0,45941.0,44239.0,42123.0,37931.0,34528.0,35815.0,46356.0,45069.0,42994.0,34985.0,42845.0,43480.0,44079.0,41816.0,39216.0,34773.0,31162.0,31813.0,40516.0,38750.0,36353.0,29084.0,35530.0,36290.0,37035.0,35372.0,33403.0,29829.0,26927.0,27695.0,35541.0,34258.0,32399.0,26133.0,31559.0,32280.0,32989.0,31554.0,29841.0,26689.0,24128.0,24854.0,31946.0,30842.0,29215.0,23604.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[8050.0,7050.0,7250.0,7300.0,7450.0,7000.0,6550.0,7100.0,8000.0,7850.0,7950.0,6700.0,8200.0,7250.0,7500.0,7350.0,7650.0,7100.0,6700.0,7300.0,8250.0,8050.0,8100.0,6850.0,8450.0,7550.0,7750.0,7700.0,7900.0,7350.0,6950.0,7600.0,8550.0,8400.0,8500.0,7150.0,8850.0,7850.0,8050.0,8000.0,8250.0,7650.0,7200.0,7850.0,8900.0,8700.0,8750.0,7450.0,8700.0,8400.0,10200.0,11500.0,11100.0,9900.0,9200.0,9700.0,10700.0,10500.0,10600.0,8900.0,10000.0,8600.0,9100.0,9000.0,9350.0,8700.0,8100.0,8650.0,9850.0,9650.0,9700.0,8300.0,9500.0,8300.0,8750.0,8650.0,8950.0,8300.0,7800.0,8350.0,9500.0,9300.0,10800.0,10000.0,11000.0,10200.0,11200.0,11000.0,11400.0,10600.0,9900.0,10600.0,12100.0,11900.0,12000.0,10600.0,12700.0,11400.0,12200.0,12000.0,12500.0,11700.0,10900.0,11700.0,13300.0,13000.0,13100.0,11500.0,13200.0,11900.0,12600.0,12400.0,12900.0,12000.0,11200.0,12000.0,13700.0,13400.0,13600.0,11900.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1000.0,900.0,950.0,1250.0,1350.0,1350.0,1100.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1050.0,950.0,1000.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1150.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1350.0,1450.0,1450.0,1200.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1350.0,1450.0,1450.0,1200.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1250.0,1100.0,1150.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1250.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1150.0,1050.0,1100.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1200.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1150.0,1300.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1050.0,950.0,1000.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1050.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,950.0,880.0,920.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,980.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,880.0,820.0,850.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[7500.0,6900.0,7750.0,6800.0,6200.0,5550.0,5200.0,5450.0,7100.0,6750.0,6350.0,5900.0,7800.0,7250.0,8100.0,7000.0,6550.0,5800.0,5450.0,5750.0,7400.0,7050.0,6600.0,6200.0,8150.0,7550.0,8400.0,7300.0,6850.0,6050.0,5700.0,5950.0,7700.0,7350.0,6900.0,6450.0,8600.0,7950.0,8800.0,7750.0,7200.0,6400.0,6050.0,6350.0,8150.0,7700.0,7300.0,6800.0,8250.0,7800.0,9200.0,8800.0,7900.0,6500.0,5800.0,6200.0,8100.0,7600.0,7150.0,6600.0,8100.0,7500.0,8300.0,7250.0,6800.0,6050.0,5700.0,5950.0,7650.0,7250.0,6850.0,6450.0,8550.0,7900.0,8750.0,7750.0,7250.0,6400.0,6050.0,6350.0,8100.0,7650.0,7300.0,6800.0,9400.0,8750.0,9800.0,8500.0,7950.0,7000.0,6600.0,6900.0,8900.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,9750.0,9000.0,10000.0,8800.0,8200.0,7300.0,6850.0,7100.0,9300.0,8700.0,8300.0,7750.0,9500.0,8800.0,9800.0,8600.0,8000.0,7100.0,6700.0,6950.0,9000.0,8550.0,8100.0,7600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2780.0,2570.0,2810.0,2640.0,2700.0,2480.0,2300.0,2380.0,2650.0,2730.0,2580.0,2260.0,2700.0,2490.0,2740.0,2550.0,2630.0,2420.0,2250.0,2320.0,2580.0,2670.0,2510.0,2200.0,2580.0,2380.0,2610.0,2440.0,2500.0,2300.0,2140.0,2200.0,2460.0,2540.0,2390.0,2100.0,2450.0,2260.0,2480.0,2320.0,2370.0,2180.0,2020.0,2080.0,2330.0,2410.0,2260.0,1980.0,2400.0,2240.0,2500.0,2700.0,2780.0,2570.0,2350.0,2410.0,2630.0,2690.0,2510.0,2220.0,2480.0,2290.0,2510.0,2340.0,2390.0,2200.0,2040.0,2100.0,2350.0,2430.0,2280.0,2000.0,2370.0,2190.0,2400.0,2240.0,2290.0,2110.0,1950.0,2000.0,2240.0,2320.0,2180.0,1910.0,2260.0,2090.0,2290.0,2140.0,2180.0,2010.0,1860.0,1910.0,2140.0,2220.0,2080.0,1820.0,2180.0,2020.0,2210.0,2060.0,2100.0,1940.0,1790.0,1840.0,2060.0,2140.0,2000.0,1750.0,2120.0,1960.0,2150.0,2000.0,2040.0,1880.0,1740.0,1780.0,2000.0,2080.0,1940.0,1700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4725.0,4950.0,5040.0,4725.0,4410.0,3825.0,3510.0,4140.0,4950.0,5040.0,4725.0,3690.0,4830.0,5060.0,5152.0,4830.0,4508.0,3910.0,3588.0,4232.0,5060.0,5152.0,4830.0,3772.0,4935.0,5170.0,5264.0,4935.0,4606.0,3995.0,3666.0,4324.0,5170.0,5264.0,4935.0,3854.0,4620.0,4840.0,4928.0,4620.0,4312.0,3740.0,3432.0,4048.0,4840.0,4928.0,4620.0,3608.0,5040.0,5280.0,6000.0,5760.0,5280.0,4080.0,3744.0,4416.0,5280.0,5376.0,5040.0,3936.0,4515.0,4730.0,4816.0,4515.0,4214.0,3655.0,3354.0,3956.0,4730.0,4816.0,4515.0,3526.0,4095.0,4290.0,4368.0,4095.0,3822.0,3315.0,3042.0,3588.0,4290.0,4368.0,4095.0,3198.0,3675.0,3850.0,3920.0,3675.0,3430.0,2975.0,2730.0,3220.0,3850.0,3920.0,3675.0,2870.0,3255.0,3410.0,3472.0,3255.0,3038.0,2635.0,2418.0,2852.0,3410.0,3472.0,3255.0,2542.0,2940.0,3080.0,3136.0,2940.0,2744.0,2380.0,2184.0,2576.0,3080.0,3136.0,2940.0,2296.0]}},{"title":"Justin Kurzel","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Justin Kurzel\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[28357,18199,16730,15354,36830,18142,14563,15646,14421,18826,18744,48523,32805,16771,22316,15773,18769,13297,13398,11485,13559,16141,14192,10914,14010,10921,12005,10351,8616,8707,9345,9603,8657,8730,8320,8053,9881,8941,10503,9934,11075,10298,14557,12505,11594,9791,9234,8398,17401,16895,18601,20015,15458,11600,12913,12199,10135,11210,11018,10681,11264,9841,9771,8747,8797,9794,17935,10500,10665,11789,12674,13014,13632,9472,10461,11067,8311,9281,9935,8182,9134,12665,11708,8579,9441,7346,8933,8242,7845,8304,8420,8082,7270,7363,7398,7317,9816,19964,11553,9478,9101,9922,9640,11281,13613,15402,12996,35401,23636,27826,14983,22340,18026,11411,14734,21236,22772,13648,10140,10810],"flat_reference_value":16990.080462135702,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[38000.0,23000.0,18000.0,16000.0,19000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,24000.0,105000.0,80000.0,35000.0,24000.0,19000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9500.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,9500.0,15000.0,11000.0,10000.0,13000.0,25000.0,17000.0,15000.0,22000.0,18000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,12000.0,25000.0,15000.0,20000.0,18000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,11000.0,45000.0,30000.0,16000.0,13000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,13000.0,16000.0,12000.0,14000.0,32000.0,38000.0,22000.0,15000.0,26000.0,20000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[46000.0,31000.0,26000.0,21000.0,36000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16500.0,16000.0,21000.0,25000.0,115000.0,68000.0,29000.0,27000.0,24000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15500.0,14500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13500.0,14500.0,12000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,16500.0,12500.0,13000.0,14000.0,23000.0,16500.0,19000.0,34000.0,26000.0,16500.0,14500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,12000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,13500.0,29000.0,16500.0,17500.0,26000.0,36000.0,27000.0,18500.0,15500.0,29000.0,26000.0,17500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,12500.0,18000.0,28000.0,21000.0,22000.0,58000.0,52000.0,76000.0,36000.0,54000.0,38000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[11800.0,10500.0,11200.0,12400.0,24500.0,17200.0,14300.0,15100.0,13900.0,19400.0,23800.0,64500.0,51200.0,23400.0,16800.0,12500.0,11100.0,9800.0,9200.0,8700.0,8400.0,7900.0,7600.0,8200.0,7800.0,6900.0,7200.0,6500.0,6800.0,7100.0,6400.0,6100.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,6300.0,6600.0,6100.0,6400.0,6000.0,6200.0,6800.0,7100.0,7500.0,14200.0,9800.0,8900.0,9500.0,13800.0,11200.0,9100.0,10500.0,8200.0,7400.0,6800.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,7500.0,8200.0,7300.0,6500.0,6800.0,6900.0,7200.0,8500.0,22400.0,14600.0,11800.0,16200.0,11500.0,13800.0,10400.0,8700.0,11200.0,9600.0,8100.0,7400.0,6900.0,6500.0,6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,6300.0,6200.0,5700.0,6100.0,6300.0,7800.0,6600.0,5900.0,5800.0,6100.0,5600.0,6000.0,6400.0,6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,6400.0,6700.0,7100.0,8400.0,15800.0,24200.0,13500.0,12800.0,21500.0,16400.0,11800.0,9500.0,8200.0,7500.0,7100.0,6800.0,6500.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,6300.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[9000.0,6500.0,5200.0,4600.0,5000.0,4800.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,6500.0,9500.0,38000.0,26000.0,9000.0,6500.0,5200.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,5500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3800.0,7500.0,4500.0,4000.0,8000.0,5000.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,6500.0,4500.0,7000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4000.0,3500.0,3800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0,4000.0,6500.0,4000.0,5000.0,14000.0,9000.0,5000.0,4000.0,11000.0,7000.0,4200.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[22000.0,17000.0,15000.0,13000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,14000.0,16000.0,55000.0,48000.0,20000.0,22000.0,15000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,9000.0,7500.0,7000.0,8000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,19000.0,14000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,15000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,12000.0,13000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,9000.0,12000.0,9000.0,11000.0,40000.0,32000.0,25000.0,15000.0,38000.0,22000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5800.0,6600.0,3300.0,3050.0,3600.0,3100.0,2950.0,3400.0,3650.0,4300.0,5800.0,47000.0,24000.0,9200.0,5100.0,3900.0,3450.0,3050.0,3150.0,2980.0,3250.0,3150.0,3350.0,3600.0,3100.0,2900.0,3050.0,2850.0,2950.0,2700.0,2600.0,2650.0,2900.0,2800.0,2950.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2850.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,2900.0,8200.0,4700.0,3400.0,4200.0,7600.0,3900.0,4400.0,6800.0,3600.0,3100.0,2950.0,3050.0,3200.0,3100.0,2950.0,3300.0,3100.0,2950.0,2800.0,2900.0,2750.0,2800.0,9100.0,5600.0,4100.0,7800.0,4600.0,3300.0,3050.0,2800.0,2900.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2500.0,2650.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2650.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2500.0,2550.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2850.0,2900.0,2800.0,2950.0,2800.0,2750.0,2900.0,8800.0,5200.0,6800.0,10500.0,5800.0,4100.0,4400.0,12500.0,8200.0,4200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3150.0,3250.0,3050.0,3200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3500.0,3200.0,2800.0,2600.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,4500.0,7500.0,55000.0,22000.0,9000.0,4500.0,3200.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,7500.0,4500.0,2800.0,2500.0,6200.0,3500.0,2800.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2600.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,9500.0,4000.0,3500.0,5500.0,3200.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,2500.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,2200.0,8500.0,4000.0,3500.0,12000.0,4500.0,2200.0,2600.0,9800.0,7200.0,3200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[920.0,610.0,470.0,425.0,1130.0,690.0,565.0,520.0,680.0,940.0,1620.0,8340.0,2480.0,1210.0,840.0,560.0,485.0,430.0,415.0,395.0,520.0,470.0,505.0,560.0,520.0,460.0,615.0,565.0,505.0,455.0,415.0,405.0,465.0,515.0,525.0,575.0,565.0,555.0,615.0,575.0,560.0,575.0,625.0,690.0,2380.0,1290.0,1080.0,940.0,1830.0,1120.0,925.0,830.0,940.0,1680.0,1020.0,720.0,710.0,665.0,715.0,735.0,725.0,710.0,815.0,770.0,830.0,1140.0,3520.0,1520.0,1130.0,1010.0,1120.0,1240.0,920.0,865.0,2040.0,1310.0,915.0,815.0,805.0,760.0,810.0,825.0,870.0,915.0,905.0,915.0,1010.0,1135.0,1290.0,1110.0,965.0,915.0,1030.0,970.0,1015.0,1060.0,1095.0,1145.0,1215.0,1295.0,1380.0,1395.0,1520.0,1830.0,5480.0,2540.0,2180.0,3020.0,2050.0,1720.0,1840.0,4460.0,3480.0,2210.0,1620.0,1395.0,1810.0,1490.0,1410.0,1520.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1300.0,1500.0,1000.0,800.0,700.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,750.0,900.0,1400.0,5200.0,3200.0,1800.0,1100.0,850.0,750.0,650.0,650.0,650.0,700.0,750.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,700.0,650.0,600.0,550.0,500.0,500.0,500.0,550.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,550.0,550.0,500.0,500.0,450.0,450.0,500.0,1800.0,1200.0,800.0,700.0,2200.0,1300.0,900.0,700.0,650.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,650.0,650.0,600.0,650.0,800.0,3500.0,1500.0,1800.0,3000.0,1400.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,650.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,650.0,650.0,600.0,600.0,550.0,550.0,550.0,600.0,650.0,650.0,700.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,800.0,1500.0,3000.0,1500.0,1200.0,3500.0,2000.0,1400.0,1100.0,900.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,900.0,900.0,1000.0,1000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7400.0,9800.0,5600.0,3300.0,2700.0,2600.0,4100.0,3000.0,3500.0,6200.0,7900.0,15200.0,17600.0,9400.0,5200.0,3300.0,2500.0,2100.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,1350.0,1150.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,880.0,930.0,980.0,950.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1250.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,930.0,970.0,950.0,900.0,970.0,920.0,880.0,1080.0,950.0,860.0,830.0,810.0,790.0,830.0,900.0,1250.0,950.0,980.0,930.0,1050.0,1000.0,1200.0,1500.0,6100.0,4400.0,8400.0,8600.0,4000.0,2700.0,2300.0,2200.0,3600.0,3100.0,2000.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1500.0,1750.0,1650.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1750.0,2300.0,3600.0,10200.0,13200.0,6800.0,3600.0,7600.0,4400.0,2700.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1950.0,1900.0,2000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3200.0,2900.0,2500.0,2100.0,2150.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,2250.0,2500.0,3500.0,32000.0,16000.0,9500.0,6000.0,4200.0,3300.0,2700.0,2200.0,2300.0,4000.0,9500.0,6000.0,4000.0,2900.0,2400.0,2250.0,2200.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2080.0,2300.0,2350.0,2400.0,2150.0,2450.0,2420.0,2380.0,2330.0,2330.0,2400.0,3000.0,5500.0,4200.0,3200.0,2700.0,2500.0,4200.0,3400.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2700.0,2650.0,2600.0,2900.0,2950.0,3000.0,2750.0,2750.0,2900.0,2700.0,2650.0,3800.0,3000.0,24000.0,15000.0,19000.0,12000.0,8000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4000.0,3200.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2400.0,2700.0,2750.0,2800.0,2550.0,2450.0,2420.0,2380.0,2320.0,2320.0,2260.0,2700.0,2500.0,2420.0,2460.0,2480.0,2250.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2180.0,2180.0,2120.0,2060.0,2040.0,2300.0,2350.0,2400.0,2150.0,2150.0,2350.0,5500.0,6500.0,5500.0,4300.0,3500.0,2900.0,2600.0,2450.0,2400.0,2100.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[463.0,642.0,571.0,518.0,489.0,472.0,506.0,548.0,521.0,587.0,1084.0,836.0,916.0,637.0,608.0,981.0,796.0,654.0,602.0,631.0,674.0,721.0,782.0,847.0,824.0,718.0,1276.0,986.0,793.0,716.0,688.0,752.0,784.0,836.0,907.0,972.0,918.0,851.0,812.0,794.0,773.0,754.0,819.0,906.0,864.0,918.0,1006.0,1058.0,977.0,903.0,946.0,1248.0,1364.0,1575.0,2460.0,2214.0,1663.0,1547.0,1712.0,2051.0,4832.0,4217.0,4479.0,3048.0,2351.0,2586.0,7184.0,4967.0,2683.0,2317.0,2365.0,2428.0,2276.0,2514.0,1963.0,1851.0,1794.0,1778.0,1908.0,1859.0,2016.0,2117.0,2254.0,2410.0,3527.0,2896.0,3742.0,2528.0,2149.0,2007.0,1958.0,2163.0,2104.0,2296.0,3614.0,2517.0,2418.0,2289.0,2341.0,2664.0,3875.0,2918.0,2456.0,2257.0,2348.0,3146.0,3627.0,4087.0,3168.0,2944.0,3066.0,4027.0,11820.0,6312.0,3748.0,3296.0,3517.0,5218.0,8473.0,4946.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3200.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3300.0,4200.0,7500.0,6000.0,3800.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,3000.0,3300.0,3000.0,2700.0,3200.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2600.0,3000.0,4800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,4200.0,4400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,4000.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1250.0,620.0,300.0,240.0,270.0,240.0,250.0,270.0,470.0,900.0,2400.0,9500.0,3200.0,950.0,500.0,350.0,270.0,230.0,240.0,220.0,210.0,190.0,200.0,230.0,180.0,160.0,150.0,140.0,160.0,150.0,140.0,150.0,180.0,200.0,170.0,160.0,160.0,150.0,140.0,190.0,1000.0,370.0,190.0,210.0,480.0,1600.0,560.0,330.0,560.0,240.0,160.0,140.0,150.0,140.0,150.0,170.0,210.0,250.0,270.0,300.0,230.0,190.0,170.0,210.0,340.0,410.0,2200.0,860.0,1450.0,460.0,620.0,1000.0,1600.0,510.0,260.0,190.0,210.0,190.0,210.0,230.0,260.0,290.0,320.0,350.0,260.0,200.0,190.0,210.0,290.0,260.0,280.0,270.0,330.0,390.0,430.0,470.0,520.0,360.0,280.0,310.0,420.0,390.0,490.0,810.0,2500.0,3300.0,4800.0,9000.0,3200.0,1100.0,600.0,700.0,950.0,880.0,1100.0,800.0,520.0,420.0,480.0,550.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[600.0,560.0,620.0,640.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,720.0,760.0,900.0,1600.0,6800.0,4200.0,1700.0,1100.0,900.0,950.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,780.0,720.0,760.0,800.0,780.0,750.0,780.0,820.0,850.0,780.0,820.0,750.0,760.0,800.0,850.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,950.0,1050.0,1550.0,1200.0,1000.0,950.0,1500.0,1050.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,850.0,820.0,900.0,950.0,1100.0,1200.0,1800.0,1450.0,2600.0,1900.0,1250.0,1050.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,820.0,850.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,800.0,780.0,820.0,780.0,800.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,850.0,820.0,850.0,800.0,850.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1800.0,2500.0,4000.0,3600.0,1800.0,1250.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[380.0,360.0,370.0,350.0,360.0,340.0,350.0,340.0,360.0,380.0,420.0,1400.0,900.0,550.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,420.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,360.0,480.0,430.0,390.0,380.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,380.0,1100.0,650.0,500.0,450.0,520.0,600.0,450.0,420.0,430.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,360.0,350.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,320.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,350.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,310.0,300.0,300.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,340.0]}},{"title":"Västra Götaland County","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Västra Götaland County\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3494,3267,3300,3231,3283,3187,3161,3385,3474,3282,3270,3384,3772,3413,4085,3460,4328,4652,5106,3649,3427,3770,3524,3303,4202,3503,4174,3872,3936,3879,5046,4439,4275,3930,3684,3692,5014,4055,4260,4042,4493,4233,4595,4564,4078,4380,4511,4250,4581,4465,11197,7738,5928,5226,5408,4908,4643,6130,5611,5638,5614,4822,5341,5031,4687,4848,6719,6475,5425,5676,5699,5398,5918,5612,5246,5832,5714,5589,5798,6139,5999,5810,5369,5260,5931,5591,5661,5482,5866,5302,5748,5614,4537,4891,4513,4796,5522,4654,5172,4746,4901,4763,5041,4931,4607,4919,4317,4245,4887,4201,4613,4225,4162,3886,4324,4678,4024,4312,3873,3864],"flat_reference_value":17075.943072102407,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2450.0,2520.0,2670.0,2580.0,2730.0,2870.0,3180.0,3260.0,2910.0,2720.0,2600.0,2490.0,2640.0,2560.0,2800.0,2720.0,2890.0,3070.0,3370.0,3490.0,3050.0,2880.0,2760.0,2680.0,2840.0,2780.0,2950.0,2910.0,3080.0,3270.0,3590.0,3820.0,4210.0,3190.0,2920.0,2800.0,2910.0,2830.0,3040.0,3010.0,3180.0,3350.0,3740.0,3800.0,3300.0,3080.0,2950.0,2810.0,2990.0,2900.0,3550.0,3170.0,3020.0,3010.0,3150.0,3260.0,3050.0,2930.0,2860.0,2760.0,2870.0,2760.0,2960.0,2920.0,3000.0,3150.0,3370.0,3450.0,3100.0,2940.0,2830.0,2720.0,2880.0,2800.0,3020.0,2990.0,3180.0,3360.0,3720.0,3850.0,4050.0,3200.0,2940.0,2820.0,2940.0,2860.0,3060.0,3030.0,3200.0,3450.0,3870.0,3910.0,3370.0,3130.0,2980.0,2830.0,2960.0,2840.0,3050.0,3000.0,3180.0,3400.0,3790.0,3840.0,3280.0,3070.0,2920.0,2770.0,2880.0,2760.0,2970.0,2910.0,3080.0,3310.0,3670.0,3730.0,3190.0,2980.0,2820.0,2680.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4450.0,4210.0,4520.0,4480.0,4790.0,5020.0,5340.0,5180.0,4690.0,4610.0,4490.0,4180.0,4620.0,4310.0,4680.0,4640.0,4950.0,5150.0,5490.0,5310.0,4820.0,4760.0,4580.0,4290.0,4740.0,4390.0,4780.0,4720.0,5080.0,5260.0,5680.0,5490.0,5840.0,4890.0,4670.0,4380.0,4850.0,4480.0,4910.0,4860.0,5140.0,5320.0,5710.0,5540.0,4980.0,4920.0,4750.0,4490.0,5040.0,4890.0,8420.0,8650.0,6840.0,6120.0,6250.0,5890.0,5460.0,5780.0,6340.0,6080.0,6190.0,5480.0,5720.0,5640.0,5580.0,5690.0,6020.0,5810.0,5280.0,5190.0,5060.0,4820.0,5240.0,4790.0,5180.0,5090.0,5340.0,5520.0,5880.0,5690.0,6150.0,5120.0,4880.0,4560.0,4980.0,4540.0,4920.0,4840.0,5110.0,5290.0,5640.0,5420.0,4890.0,4780.0,4590.0,4310.0,4690.0,4380.0,4650.0,4580.0,4820.0,4960.0,5280.0,5090.0,4610.0,4520.0,4340.0,4080.0,4420.0,4090.0,4390.0,4340.0,4560.0,4710.0,5020.0,4850.0,4380.0,4290.0,4120.0,3890.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2740.0,2680.0,2810.0,2720.0,2950.0,3120.0,3280.0,3210.0,2890.0,2980.0,2850.0,2420.0,2830.0,2690.0,2910.0,2850.0,3040.0,3190.0,3350.0,3290.0,2940.0,3020.0,2910.0,2510.0,2960.0,2780.0,3050.0,2970.0,3180.0,3310.0,3480.0,3390.0,3080.0,3140.0,2990.0,2600.0,3020.0,2840.0,3110.0,3010.0,3220.0,3360.0,3520.0,3410.0,3090.0,3180.0,2950.0,2550.0,2980.0,2890.0,3580.0,3890.0,3720.0,3450.0,3590.0,3380.0,3120.0,3210.0,3050.0,2680.0,2930.0,2720.0,2990.0,2860.0,3080.0,3190.0,3340.0,3210.0,2880.0,2970.0,2790.0,2430.0,2760.0,2580.0,2820.0,2710.0,2920.0,3040.0,3210.0,3090.0,2750.0,2840.0,2690.0,2350.0,2680.0,2510.0,2750.0,2620.0,2810.0,2950.0,3110.0,2980.0,2660.0,2740.0,2590.0,2270.0,2590.0,2460.0,2680.0,2540.0,2730.0,2860.0,3020.0,2890.0,2580.0,2650.0,2510.0,2190.0,2520.0,2390.0,2610.0,2480.0,2660.0,2790.0,2940.0,2820.0,2510.0,2580.0,2440.0,2130.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[9400.0,9200.0,9500.0,9100.0,8900.0,8300.0,8500.0,8400.0,8800.0,9000.0,8900.0,7900.0,8800.0,8600.0,8900.0,8500.0,8400.0,7800.0,8000.0,7900.0,8300.0,8500.0,8400.0,7400.0,8200.0,8000.0,8300.0,7900.0,7800.0,7300.0,7500.0,7600.0,8400.0,7900.0,7800.0,6900.0,7700.0,7500.0,7700.0,7300.0,7200.0,6700.0,6900.0,6800.0,7100.0,7300.0,7200.0,6400.0,7200.0,7100.0,8200.0,8000.0,7500.0,6800.0,6800.0,6700.0,6900.0,7000.0,6900.0,6200.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,6500.0,6400.0,5900.0,6100.0,6100.0,6300.0,6400.0,6300.0,5700.0,6300.0,6200.0,6400.0,6100.0,6000.0,5600.0,5800.0,5900.0,6400.0,6100.0,6000.0,5400.0,6000.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,5700.0,5300.0,5500.0,5400.0,5700.0,5800.0,5700.0,5100.0,5700.0,5600.0,5700.0,5500.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,5200.0,5400.0,5500.0,5400.0,4900.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,5300.0,5200.0,4700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[6800.0,6500.0,6600.0,6300.0,6400.0,5900.0,6000.0,6200.0,6100.0,6300.0,6200.0,5800.0,6600.0,6200.0,6500.0,6300.0,6300.0,5800.0,5900.0,6100.0,6000.0,6200.0,6100.0,5600.0,6300.0,5900.0,6200.0,5900.0,6000.0,5600.0,5800.0,5900.0,6200.0,6000.0,5900.0,5400.0,6000.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,5800.0,5300.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,5700.0,5600.0,5200.0,5800.0,5600.0,6400.0,6800.0,6500.0,5800.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,5700.0,5800.0,5500.0,5900.0,5500.0,5700.0,5500.0,5500.0,5100.0,5200.0,5300.0,5200.0,5300.0,5300.0,5000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,5100.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4700.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,5100.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4600.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4900.0,4700.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5600.0,5100.0,5300.0,5400.0,5800.0,6100.0,6300.0,5900.0,5400.0,5100.0,4800.0,4900.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,5600.0,6000.0,6200.0,5700.0,5300.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,5200.0,5700.0,6100.0,6400.0,5800.0,8200.0,5600.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,5300.0,5700.0,5900.0,5400.0,5000.0,4700.0,4400.0,4500.0,4900.0,4600.0,6200.0,6500.0,6000.0,5800.0,6000.0,5400.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,4700.0,5100.0,5600.0,5400.0,5800.0,6100.0,9800.0,5600.0,5000.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,4600.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5800.0,6200.0,5700.0,7800.0,5400.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,5100.0,5400.0,5700.0,5200.0,4900.0,4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4700.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4900.0,5300.0,5500.0,5100.0,4800.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4800.0,5100.0,5400.0,4900.0,4600.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2120.0,1955.0,2235.0,2130.0,2345.0,2420.0,2895.0,2710.0,2330.0,2180.0,2065.0,1835.0,2010.0,1875.0,2125.0,2035.0,2240.0,2320.0,2765.0,2590.0,2220.0,2080.0,1970.0,1750.0,1965.0,1820.0,2075.0,1985.0,2185.0,2270.0,2700.0,2595.0,2920.0,2070.0,1920.0,1710.0,1885.0,1815.0,2025.0,1935.0,2120.0,2210.0,2635.0,2470.0,2085.0,1990.0,1875.0,1680.0,1790.0,1695.0,2580.0,2345.0,2010.0,2100.0,2495.0,2350.0,1980.0,1890.0,1795.0,1590.0,1740.0,1680.0,1875.0,1795.0,1965.0,2400.0,2430.0,2290.0,1930.0,1840.0,1735.0,1545.0,1695.0,1635.0,1820.0,1745.0,1910.0,1995.0,2365.0,2275.0,2470.0,1790.0,1690.0,1505.0,1645.0,1590.0,1770.0,1695.0,1855.0,2370.0,2300.0,2165.0,2780.0,2120.0,1640.0,1460.0,1600.0,1545.0,1720.0,1645.0,1805.0,1885.0,2235.0,2100.0,1770.0,1690.0,1595.0,1420.0,1550.0,1500.0,1670.0,1595.0,1750.0,1830.0,2170.0,2040.0,1720.0,1640.0,1545.0,1380.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[10100.0,9650.0,9400.0,9200.0,9000.0,9650.0,9400.0,9200.0,9500.0,9200.0,8850.0,8300.0,9900.0,9450.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,9450.0,9200.0,9000.0,9250.0,9000.0,8640.0,8100.0,9800.0,9350.0,9100.0,8900.0,8700.0,9350.0,9700.0,8900.0,9150.0,8900.0,8550.0,8000.0,9450.0,9030.0,8750.0,8600.0,8450.0,9200.0,8750.0,8600.0,8850.0,8600.0,8250.0,7750.0,10550.0,10100.0,11200.0,10800.0,10100.0,10100.0,9800.0,9600.0,9900.0,9900.0,9200.0,8640.0,10000.0,9550.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,9550.0,9300.0,9100.0,9350.0,9100.0,8750.0,8200.0,10250.0,9750.0,9500.0,9300.0,9100.0,9750.0,9500.0,9300.0,10300.0,9300.0,8950.0,8350.0,10650.0,10200.0,9900.0,9700.0,9500.0,10200.0,9900.0,9700.0,10000.0,10100.0,9300.0,8750.0,11100.0,10600.0,10300.0,10100.0,9900.0,11000.0,10300.0,10100.0,10400.0,10100.0,9700.0,9100.0,11550.0,11000.0,10700.0,10500.0,10300.0,11050.0,10700.0,10500.0,10800.0,10500.0,10100.0,9450.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[470.0,450.0,480.0,460.0,470.0,420.0,380.0,400.0,470.0,490.0,480.0,450.0,490.0,470.0,500.0,480.0,490.0,440.0,400.0,420.0,490.0,510.0,500.0,470.0,510.0,490.0,520.0,500.0,510.0,460.0,420.0,440.0,620.0,560.0,520.0,490.0,530.0,510.0,540.0,520.0,530.0,480.0,440.0,460.0,530.0,550.0,540.0,510.0,540.0,520.0,570.0,580.0,550.0,500.0,460.0,480.0,550.0,570.0,560.0,530.0,540.0,520.0,550.0,530.0,540.0,490.0,450.0,470.0,540.0,560.0,550.0,520.0,530.0,510.0,540.0,520.0,530.0,480.0,440.0,460.0,650.0,580.0,550.0,520.0,510.0,490.0,520.0,500.0,510.0,460.0,420.0,440.0,510.0,530.0,520.0,490.0,490.0,470.0,500.0,480.0,490.0,440.0,400.0,420.0,490.0,510.0,500.0,470.0,480.0,460.0,490.0,470.0,480.0,430.0,390.0,410.0,480.0,500.0,490.0,460.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1950.0,1930.0,2200.0,2280.0,2500.0,2700.0,2820.0,2650.0,2420.0,2260.0,2100.0,1900.0,2050.0,2000.0,2250.0,2360.0,2620.0,2810.0,2920.0,2740.0,2520.0,2310.0,2160.0,1980.0,2120.0,2090.0,2360.0,2450.0,2740.0,3250.0,3030.0,2860.0,2900.0,2420.0,2250.0,2070.0,2180.0,2150.0,2430.0,2530.0,2820.0,2980.0,3120.0,2940.0,2710.0,2500.0,2320.0,2120.0,2240.0,2210.0,2850.0,2740.0,2600.0,2630.0,2700.0,2740.0,2650.0,2570.0,2370.0,2190.0,2350.0,2300.0,2570.0,2710.0,2950.0,3220.0,3300.0,3170.0,2860.0,2680.0,2450.0,2270.0,2460.0,2410.0,2720.0,2820.0,3140.0,3350.0,3490.0,3290.0,3380.0,2810.0,2550.0,2400.0,2550.0,2490.0,2810.0,2930.0,3260.0,3460.0,3600.0,3440.0,3110.0,2900.0,2640.0,2480.0,2670.0,2640.0,2930.0,3120.0,3400.0,3670.0,3760.0,3610.0,3270.0,3050.0,2770.0,2620.0,2780.0,2770.0,3090.0,3230.0,3580.0,3820.0,3970.0,3760.0,3460.0,3170.0,2940.0,2710.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2350.0,2400.0,2550.0,2650.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,2600.0,2450.0,2300.0,2150.0,2550.0,2600.0,2750.0,2850.0,3050.0,3250.0,3350.0,3150.0,2800.0,2650.0,2480.0,2320.0,2750.0,2800.0,2950.0,3050.0,3250.0,3480.0,3600.0,3380.0,3250.0,2950.0,2650.0,2500.0,2950.0,3000.0,3150.0,3280.0,3480.0,3720.0,3840.0,3600.0,3220.0,3040.0,2850.0,2670.0,3100.0,3150.0,3800.0,4100.0,3900.0,3300.0,3400.0,3350.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3900.0,3850.0,3800.0,3550.0,3700.0,3950.0,4300.0,4100.0,3600.0,3500.0,3350.0,3100.0,3400.0,3450.0,3550.0,3700.0,4200.0,4700.0,5000.0,4600.0,3800.0,3450.0,3300.0,3100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,3900.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,3700.0,3500.0,3350.0,3150.0,3200.0,3250.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,4100.0,3800.0,3400.0,3250.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2850.0,2950.0,3050.0,3200.0,3450.0,3600.0,3350.0,3000.0,2850.0,2700.0,2500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6400.0,6200.0,6900.0,7200.0,7800.0,8700.0,8900.0,8600.0,7500.0,7100.0,6700.0,6400.0,6700.0,6800.0,7300.0,7600.0,8200.0,9100.0,9400.0,9200.0,8000.0,7700.0,7300.0,6900.0,7100.0,7400.0,7700.0,8000.0,8700.0,9600.0,9900.0,9700.0,9400.0,8200.0,8000.0,7500.0,7700.0,7900.0,8200.0,8400.0,9600.0,10100.0,10400.0,10200.0,8900.0,8600.0,8200.0,7800.0,13500.0,8900.0,12800.0,13200.0,9900.0,11100.0,11500.0,11200.0,9700.0,9600.0,11600.0,12400.0,14000.0,12000.0,10300.0,10000.0,10700.0,11800.0,12100.0,11800.0,10300.0,10100.0,10000.0,10300.0,10500.0,10000.0,11100.0,10400.0,10900.0,11700.0,11900.0,11600.0,11800.0,10000.0,9700.0,9500.0,9700.0,9300.0,9700.0,9900.0,10400.0,11000.0,11300.0,12700.0,9800.0,9500.0,9100.0,8900.0,8900.0,9100.0,9300.0,9500.0,10400.0,11700.0,11200.0,10900.0,10000.0,9600.0,9200.0,8900.0,9000.0,8800.0,9100.0,9200.0,9700.0,10300.0,10600.0,10400.0,11600.0,9700.0,9200.0,8800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,1900.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2000.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2000.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,1900.0,2200.0,2100.0,2500.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,2000.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,1750.0,1650.0,1850.0,2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1950.0,1950.0,1900.0,1700.0,1900.0,1850.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1850.0,1850.0,1800.0,1600.0,1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,1750.0,1750.0,1700.0,1500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[226.0,205.0,219.0,233.0,251.0,322.0,318.0,302.0,272.0,244.0,214.0,225.0,239.0,227.0,232.0,249.0,254.0,297.0,322.0,334.0,288.0,262.0,236.0,235.0,258.0,241.0,250.0,264.0,276.0,288.0,340.0,355.0,470.0,330.0,258.0,247.0,275.0,260.0,268.0,282.0,296.0,321.0,354.0,379.0,332.0,299.0,273.0,264.0,301.0,287.0,372.0,350.0,338.0,360.0,390.0,410.0,350.0,320.0,293.0,308.0,329.0,310.0,318.0,340.0,353.0,392.0,429.0,446.0,399.0,361.0,322.0,317.0,348.0,327.0,337.0,359.0,376.0,407.0,452.0,468.0,560.0,470.0,345.0,330.0,322.0,302.0,316.0,336.0,352.0,389.0,424.0,441.0,389.0,355.0,318.0,309.0,310.0,288.0,302.0,320.0,335.0,369.0,403.0,418.0,371.0,337.0,304.0,294.0,299.0,283.0,292.0,309.0,324.0,358.0,392.0,406.0,359.0,326.0,293.0,285.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[760.0,790.0,850.0,830.0,880.0,960.0,1080.0,1040.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,790.0,820.0,880.0,860.0,910.0,990.0,1110.0,1070.0,930.0,880.0,830.0,810.0,820.0,850.0,910.0,900.0,960.0,1060.0,1200.0,1150.0,980.0,920.0,870.0,840.0,790.0,820.0,880.0,860.0,920.0,1010.0,1140.0,1090.0,940.0,890.0,830.0,800.0,810.0,850.0,1120.0,1420.0,1280.0,1190.0,1300.0,1230.0,1110.0,1080.0,1050.0,990.0,980.0,1000.0,1070.0,1030.0,1080.0,1170.0,1280.0,1210.0,1060.0,1010.0,960.0,920.0,900.0,930.0,980.0,950.0,1010.0,1100.0,1210.0,1150.0,1000.0,950.0,890.0,860.0,850.0,880.0,930.0,910.0,960.0,1040.0,1140.0,1090.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,880.0,930.0,1010.0,1110.0,1060.0,920.0,870.0,820.0,790.0,800.0,820.0,870.0,850.0,900.0,980.0,1080.0,1030.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,780.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1980.0,1944.0,1890.0,1800.0,1764.0,1530.0,1350.0,1530.0,1890.0,1944.0,1890.0,1710.0,1925.0,1890.0,1838.0,1750.0,1715.0,1488.0,1313.0,1488.0,1838.0,1890.0,1838.0,1663.0,1870.0,1836.0,1785.0,1700.0,1666.0,1445.0,1275.0,1445.0,1785.0,1836.0,1785.0,1615.0,1815.0,1782.0,1733.0,1650.0,1617.0,1403.0,1238.0,1403.0,1733.0,1782.0,1733.0,1568.0,1925.0,1890.0,2000.0,1900.0,1780.0,1500.0,1320.0,1480.0,1820.0,1880.0,1830.0,1680.0,1760.0,1728.0,1680.0,1600.0,1568.0,1360.0,1200.0,1360.0,1680.0,1728.0,1680.0,1520.0,1650.0,1620.0,1575.0,1500.0,1470.0,1275.0,1125.0,1275.0,1575.0,1620.0,1575.0,1425.0,1540.0,1512.0,1470.0,1400.0,1372.0,1190.0,1050.0,1190.0,1470.0,1512.0,1470.0,1330.0,1430.0,1404.0,1365.0,1300.0,1274.0,1105.0,975.0,1105.0,1365.0,1404.0,1365.0,1235.0,1265.0,1242.0,1208.0,1150.0,1127.0,978.0,863.0,978.0,1208.0,1242.0,1208.0,1093.0]}},{"title":"George Duke","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"George Duke\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[12225,14217,9724,10422,9252,8212,8775,10068,9373,9211,8693,9991,12190,14416,12265,11603,10674,9673,10464,10120,9190,9267,8777,8981,10997,9580,9972,10046,9737,8661,8951,10370,9252,11046,10196,10842,13902,11344,11408,10117,11177,11244,11030,11668,11222,11411,10698,10698,12393,10591,11654,22250,15616,11628,12078,11257,9675,10144,11192,11826,14617,13325,14009,12074,12220,10519,10692,11252,9927,9822,8828,8771,11247,8309,8854,8831,8483,8137,8490,9537,8747,9189,9940,9940,11925,8943,10191,9053,10107,8997,9512,10078,8481,9124,8712,9257,12036,9233,9461,8909,8977,8448,9068,9841,8852,8340,8548,8873,10269,8378,8557,8168,8345,8602,8188,8632,7688,8977,8077,8031],"flat_reference_value":17007.950779174756,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[8200.0,6900.0,7100.0,7600.0,7000.0,6700.0,6900.0,9400.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,8600.0,6700.0,7200.0,7000.0,7300.0,6800.0,7100.0,9800.0,7000.0,7400.0,7200.0,7500.0,9000.0,7100.0,7600.0,7400.0,7700.0,7100.0,7500.0,10500.0,7400.0,7800.0,7600.0,8000.0,9400.0,7400.0,7900.0,7700.0,8100.0,7600.0,7800.0,10300.0,7600.0,8100.0,7800.0,8200.0,9800.0,7700.0,8500.0,9300.0,8800.0,8200.0,8500.0,11300.0,8100.0,8500.0,8200.0,8700.0,10200.0,9500.0,9100.0,8500.0,8700.0,8200.0,8500.0,11500.0,8200.0,8700.0,8400.0,8800.0,10300.0,7900.0,8600.0,8300.0,8800.0,8200.0,8600.0,11600.0,8300.0,8800.0,8400.0,8900.0,10400.0,8000.0,8700.0,8400.0,8900.0,8400.0,9000.0,14500.0,9100.0,8800.0,8500.0,9000.0,10600.0,8200.0,8900.0,8600.0,9000.0,8500.0,8900.0,11900.0,8500.0,9000.0,8700.0,9200.0,10800.0,8300.0,9100.0,8700.0,9200.0,8700.0,9000.0,12100.0,8700.0,9200.0,8800.0,9300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[24800.0,21200.0,20400.0,19800.0,19500.0,18900.0,19600.0,22300.0,19100.0,19400.0,18800.0,19200.0,21500.0,23400.0,20600.0,19300.0,19100.0,18500.0,19200.0,21800.0,18700.0,18900.0,18400.0,18800.0,20900.0,22900.0,19900.0,18800.0,18600.0,17900.0,18500.0,21100.0,18100.0,18300.0,17800.0,18200.0,20400.0,19500.0,19300.0,18400.0,18500.0,17700.0,18300.0,20800.0,17900.0,18200.0,17600.0,18100.0,20600.0,19800.0,19400.0,21200.0,20500.0,19600.0,19900.0,22100.0,19300.0,19500.0,20800.0,21400.0,21900.0,26500.0,23800.0,19700.0,19200.0,18400.0,18800.0,21200.0,18100.0,18300.0,17700.0,18000.0,19800.0,18700.0,18400.0,17600.0,17400.0,16800.0,17300.0,19600.0,16700.0,16900.0,16400.0,16800.0,18600.0,17800.0,17500.0,16700.0,16500.0,15900.0,16600.0,22400.0,16300.0,16400.0,15900.0,16200.0,17900.0,17100.0,16800.0,15900.0,15800.0,15200.0,15700.0,18100.0,15400.0,15600.0,16100.0,16700.0,17400.0,16300.0,16000.0,15200.0,15100.0,14600.0,15000.0,17300.0,14700.0,14900.0,14500.0,14800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[21340.0,19650.0,20410.0,19820.0,20150.0,18920.0,19430.0,21100.0,18760.0,19540.0,19880.0,21050.0,20820.0,22480.0,21150.0,19740.0,19630.0,18450.0,18910.0,20340.0,18230.0,18870.0,19420.0,20110.0,20640.0,18120.0,19730.0,19210.0,19480.0,18320.0,18790.0,19950.0,17850.0,18640.0,19020.0,19870.0,20450.0,17940.0,19320.0,18860.0,18990.0,17820.0,18210.0,19450.0,17540.0,18260.0,18740.0,19620.0,19880.0,18430.0,21920.0,24150.0,23200.0,20760.0,20110.0,21540.0,19680.0,20430.0,23890.0,24710.0,21850.0,23640.0,21720.0,19830.0,19410.0,18350.0,18760.0,20120.0,18190.0,18640.0,18980.0,19850.0,19740.0,17230.0,18650.0,17940.0,18120.0,16980.0,17350.0,18640.0,16890.0,17520.0,17830.0,18740.0,18950.0,16620.0,17840.0,17150.0,17310.0,16220.0,16580.0,17740.0,16180.0,16730.0,17090.0,17860.0,17920.0,16110.0,17240.0,16530.0,16780.0,15640.0,16020.0,17180.0,15590.0,16140.0,16450.0,17210.0,17350.0,15420.0,16680.0,15940.0,16180.0,15150.0,15510.0,16590.0,15080.0,15620.0,15950.0,16700.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[13500.0,11800.0,12000.0,11600.0,11500.0,11200.0,11400.0,13200.0,11000.0,11100.0,11000.0,10800.0,12600.0,11300.0,12200.0,11700.0,11400.0,11000.0,11100.0,12500.0,10700.0,10800.0,10500.0,10200.0,11800.0,10400.0,10700.0,10300.0,10200.0,9900.0,10000.0,11300.0,9700.0,9900.0,9600.0,9400.0,10800.0,9500.0,9800.0,9500.0,9400.0,9200.0,9300.0,10400.0,9000.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,10100.0,9000.0,9600.0,10500.0,10200.0,9500.0,9300.0,10300.0,8900.0,8900.0,8700.0,8600.0,9800.0,8700.0,8900.0,8500.0,8400.0,8100.0,8200.0,9200.0,8000.0,8100.0,7900.0,7800.0,8900.0,7900.0,8100.0,7800.0,7700.0,7500.0,7600.0,8500.0,7400.0,7500.0,7400.0,7300.0,8400.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7200.0,7100.0,7200.0,9400.0,7300.0,7200.0,7000.0,6900.0,8000.0,7000.0,7100.0,6900.0,6800.0,6600.0,6700.0,7500.0,6500.0,6600.0,6500.0,6400.0,7400.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,6100.0,6200.0,7000.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,5900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[23500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,21500.0,20500.0,21000.0,22500.0,21000.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,22500.0,26000.0,22000.0,20500.0,20500.0,19500.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,20000.0,20000.0,20500.0,21500.0,20000.0,20500.0,19500.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,20000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19000.0,19500.0,20500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,22500.0,21000.0,20500.0,20500.0,19500.0,19500.0,21000.0,21500.0,21500.0,22000.0,20500.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,19000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9900.0,7900.0,8900.0,7700.0,8700.0,8200.0,9100.0,11300.0,8600.0,8000.0,8600.0,9400.0,9000.0,7200.0,8100.0,7400.0,7800.0,7300.0,8200.0,10100.0,8000.0,7300.0,8000.0,8400.0,8500.0,6800.0,7400.0,6600.0,7400.0,7000.0,7700.0,9300.0,7200.0,6900.0,7300.0,7900.0,7800.0,6300.0,6900.0,6400.0,6800.0,6400.0,7000.0,8800.0,6800.0,6300.0,6900.0,7200.0,7300.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6500.0,8200.0,6400.0,6100.0,6400.0,6900.0,7300.0,5600.0,6000.0,5600.0,6100.0,5700.0,6100.0,7600.0,6000.0,5600.0,6000.0,6500.0,6400.0,5200.0,5700.0,5300.0,5600.0,5400.0,5800.0,7200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5500.0,6000.0,5900.0,4900.0,5300.0,4800.0,5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,7400.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,5600.0,5500.0,4400.0,4900.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4900.0,6100.0,4900.0,4500.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4100.0,4400.0,4100.0,4500.0,4200.0,4500.0,5500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,4800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3921.0,3715.0,3328.0,3794.0,3187.0,2974.0,3231.0,4087.0,3352.0,3289.0,3341.0,2958.0,3768.0,3612.0,3275.0,3248.0,3094.0,2891.0,3115.0,3932.0,3224.0,3198.0,3255.0,2873.0,3692.0,3528.0,3197.0,3163.0,3021.0,2814.0,3038.0,3821.0,3156.0,3112.0,3148.0,2805.0,3604.0,3439.0,3105.0,3092.0,2948.0,2742.0,2974.0,3745.0,3068.0,3034.0,3081.0,2728.0,3523.0,3361.0,3718.0,4125.0,3742.0,3098.0,2889.0,3648.0,2976.0,2951.0,3003.0,2659.0,3432.0,3275.0,2948.0,2923.0,2784.0,2598.0,2812.0,3546.0,2894.0,2867.0,2912.0,2574.0,3348.0,3194.0,2871.0,2845.0,2709.0,2523.0,2738.0,3452.0,2815.0,2792.0,2836.0,2508.0,3261.0,3112.0,2794.0,2771.0,2635.0,2451.0,2662.0,3358.0,2739.0,2715.0,2760.0,2436.0,3185.0,3038.0,2723.0,2698.0,2564.0,2387.0,2591.0,3274.0,2668.0,2641.0,2685.0,2372.0,3102.0,2961.0,2654.0,2628.0,2497.0,2321.0,2523.0,3189.0,2596.0,2572.0,2614.0,2308.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[14700.0,13250.0,12600.0,14350.0,12850.0,12150.0,12650.0,17450.0,13300.0,12750.0,12950.0,14600.0,15150.0,12950.0,12750.0,13150.0,13600.0,12650.0,12950.0,18300.0,13550.0,12950.0,13150.0,15050.0,15700.0,13250.0,13350.0,13650.0,14150.0,13050.0,13450.0,19200.0,14050.0,13450.0,13700.0,15550.0,16250.0,13650.0,13550.0,13950.0,14450.0,13350.0,13900.0,19750.0,14350.0,13850.0,14150.0,16050.0,17350.0,15150.0,15850.0,17250.0,16150.0,15050.0,15450.0,22100.0,15850.0,15250.0,15350.0,17350.0,18150.0,15350.0,15250.0,15850.0,16150.0,15050.0,15550.0,22550.0,16250.0,15650.0,15850.0,17850.0,18850.0,15850.0,15650.0,16350.0,16650.0,15450.0,15950.0,23250.0,16550.0,15950.0,16250.0,18350.0,19550.0,16450.0,16250.0,17050.0,17350.0,16050.0,16650.0,31450.0,18950.0,16750.0,17150.0,19250.0,20350.0,17250.0,17150.0,17850.0,18250.0,16850.0,17450.0,25150.0,18650.0,17650.0,19850.0,19950.0,21250.0,17950.0,17750.0,18650.0,18950.0,17550.0,18150.0,26350.0,19450.0,18350.0,18650.0,20750.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4300.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,3600.0,3800.0,5200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,4100.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,4800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3900.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,4500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3700.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,4200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3900.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,3700.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,3600.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,6000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,3400.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2900.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,3300.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0],"meta/muse-ember":[10030.0,11480.0,10460.0,9950.0,10880.0,10630.0,13090.0,13260.0,10290.0,10710.0,9690.0,9950.0,9435.0,11220.0,10370.0,9605.0,10540.0,10200.0,12665.0,12835.0,10030.0,10285.0,9350.0,9605.0,9180.0,8075.0,10115.0,9435.0,10285.0,10030.0,12325.0,12580.0,9775.0,10030.0,9180.0,9350.0,8925.0,7905.0,9860.0,9180.0,9945.0,10880.0,11985.0,12155.0,9605.0,9775.0,9010.0,9095.0,9095.0,8330.0,10710.0,10880.0,9945.0,14280.0,13175.0,12410.0,9775.0,9945.0,12325.0,10455.0,8840.0,13430.0,10370.0,9010.0,9945.0,9690.0,11900.0,12070.0,9520.0,9690.0,8925.0,8755.0,8500.0,7480.0,9265.0,8670.0,9435.0,9180.0,11390.0,11560.0,9095.0,9265.0,8500.0,8585.0,8160.0,7225.0,12410.0,8330.0,9095.0,8840.0,10965.0,16575.0,8755.0,8925.0,8160.0,8330.0,7820.0,7310.0,8585.0,7990.0,8755.0,8500.0,10540.0,10625.0,8415.0,8585.0,11390.0,8585.0,7565.0,8755.0,8075.0,7735.0,8415.0,8245.0,10200.0,10370.0,8160.0,8330.0,7565.0,7735.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[5240.0,3150.0,3240.0,3210.0,3090.0,2940.0,2730.0,2670.0,3110.0,3180.0,3270.0,2400.0,5250.0,3740.0,3080.0,3050.0,2935.0,2790.0,2595.0,2535.0,2955.0,3020.0,3105.0,2280.0,6300.0,2835.0,2915.0,2890.0,2780.0,2645.0,2455.0,2405.0,2800.0,2860.0,2945.0,2160.0,4985.0,2700.0,2775.0,2750.0,2645.0,2520.0,2340.0,2285.0,2660.0,2725.0,2800.0,2055.0,4735.0,2560.0,3425.0,3525.0,3265.0,2630.0,2330.0,2170.0,2525.0,2585.0,2660.0,2145.0,4275.0,2435.0,2505.0,2480.0,2390.0,2275.0,2110.0,2065.0,2405.0,2460.0,2530.0,1855.0,4075.0,2320.0,2385.0,2365.0,2275.0,2165.0,2010.0,1965.0,2290.0,2345.0,2410.0,1770.0,8000.0,2205.0,2270.0,2245.0,2165.0,2060.0,1910.0,1870.0,2175.0,2225.0,2290.0,1680.0,3685.0,2100.0,2160.0,2140.0,2060.0,1960.0,1820.0,1780.0,2075.0,2756.0,2505.0,1600.0,3500.0,1995.0,2050.0,2035.0,1955.0,1860.0,1730.0,1690.0,1970.0,2015.0,2070.0,1520.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[21800.0,20400.0,22000.0,23500.0,24500.0,25500.0,27000.0,26500.0,27000.0,29000.0,25500.0,24000.0,23000.0,21800.0,23500.0,24500.0,25500.0,27000.0,28000.0,27500.0,28000.0,30000.0,26500.0,25000.0,24000.0,22800.0,24500.0,25000.0,26500.0,28000.0,29500.0,29000.0,29500.0,32000.0,28000.0,26500.0,25000.0,23500.0,25000.0,25500.0,27000.0,28500.0,30000.0,29500.0,30000.0,32500.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26500.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35500.0,34500.0,35000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29500.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33500.0,34000.0,37000.0,32500.0,30500.0,29000.0,27000.0,28500.0,29500.0,30500.0,32000.0,33000.0,32500.0,33000.0,36000.0,31500.0,29500.0,28000.0,26000.0,27500.0,28500.0,29500.0,31000.0,32000.0,31500.0,32000.0,35000.0,30500.0,28500.0,27000.0,25000.0,26500.0,27500.0,28500.0,30000.0,31000.0,30500.0,31000.0,34000.0,29500.0,27500.0,27000.0,25000.0,26500.0,27500.0,28500.0,30000.0,31000.0,82000.0,235000.0,60000.0,35000.0,31000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4600.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,4300.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,4000.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3800.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3700.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3700.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3400.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,3300.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,3000.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,3100.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,3000.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2700.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1250.0,938.0,1043.0,1016.0,977.0,921.0,946.0,1305.0,1062.0,954.0,927.0,1081.0,1202.0,884.0,991.0,966.0,924.0,879.0,903.0,1247.0,1014.0,907.0,883.0,1026.0,1148.0,836.0,943.0,922.0,991.0,826.0,857.0,1204.0,968.0,863.0,829.0,974.0,1097.0,793.0,891.0,866.0,824.0,776.0,803.0,1146.0,912.0,813.0,779.0,928.0,1258.0,843.0,946.0,928.0,872.0,835.0,859.0,1452.0,967.0,864.0,827.0,986.0,2043.0,1052.0,1267.0,1148.0,1121.0,1076.0,1104.0,1498.0,1218.0,1113.0,1084.0,1239.0,1254.0,935.0,1047.0,1022.0,979.0,926.0,951.0,1308.0,1064.0,962.0,928.0,1084.0,1201.0,888.0,994.0,967.0,923.0,881.0,904.0,1253.0,1112.0,913.0,876.0,1033.0,1149.0,837.0,942.0,919.0,874.0,828.0,851.0,1301.0,965.0,867.0,826.0,983.0,1203.0,788.0,892.0,871.0,819.0,777.0,801.0,1298.0,909.0,814.0,776.0,931.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2310.0,1870.0,1940.0,1810.0,1890.0,1760.0,1830.0,2390.0,1920.0,1840.0,1780.0,1900.0,2210.0,1740.0,1820.0,1760.0,1690.0,1780.0,1710.0,2280.0,1800.0,1720.0,1680.0,1790.0,2140.0,1690.0,1750.0,1640.0,1720.0,1600.0,1670.0,2210.0,1760.0,1680.0,1610.0,1730.0,2070.0,1620.0,1690.0,1580.0,1650.0,1540.0,1610.0,2160.0,1700.0,1630.0,1570.0,1660.0,2130.0,1700.0,1810.0,1980.0,2040.0,1900.0,1870.0,2320.0,1950.0,1880.0,1800.0,1910.0,2180.0,1730.0,1800.0,1690.0,1760.0,1650.0,1700.0,2250.0,1810.0,1740.0,1660.0,1770.0,2090.0,1650.0,1710.0,1600.0,1660.0,1550.0,1620.0,2180.0,1710.0,1640.0,1570.0,1680.0,2010.0,1580.0,1650.0,1530.0,1600.0,1490.0,1560.0,2110.0,1650.0,1580.0,1510.0,1620.0,1940.0,1510.0,1570.0,1460.0,1530.0,1420.0,1480.0,2040.0,1580.0,1510.0,1440.0,1540.0,1860.0,1440.0,1500.0,1390.0,1450.0,1350.0,1400.0,1950.0,1490.0,1420.0,1360.0,1460.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1365.0,1365.0,1365.0,1300.0,1261.0,1209.0,1196.0,1404.0,1300.0,1326.0,1300.0,1196.0,1208.0,1208.0,1208.0,1150.0,1116.0,1070.0,1058.0,1242.0,1150.0,1173.0,1150.0,1058.0,1103.0,1103.0,1103.0,1050.0,1019.0,977.0,966.0,1134.0,1050.0,1071.0,1050.0,966.0,1029.0,1029.0,1029.0,980.0,951.0,911.0,902.0,1058.0,980.0,1000.0,980.0,902.0,998.0,998.0,998.0,950.0,922.0,884.0,874.0,1026.0,950.0,969.0,950.0,874.0,924.0,924.0,924.0,880.0,854.0,818.0,810.0,950.0,880.0,898.0,880.0,810.0,872.0,872.0,872.0,830.0,805.0,772.0,764.0,896.0,830.0,847.0,830.0,764.0,840.0,840.0,840.0,800.0,776.0,744.0,736.0,864.0,800.0,816.0,800.0,736.0,798.0,798.0,798.0,760.0,737.0,707.0,699.0,821.0,760.0,775.0,760.0,699.0,767.0,767.0,767.0,730.0,708.0,679.0,672.0,788.0,730.0,745.0,730.0,672.0]}},{"title":"Exponential integral","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Exponential integral\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5662,6340,6787,7060,6212,4996,4045,4166,6431,9119,8602,6775,6789,7952,8922,8193,7431,5892,5085,5475,7317,9593,9708,7453,7960,8837,9149,9115,8060,6692,5620,5905,8048,10411,9972,7880,8347,8889,9764,9641,8292,6535,5410,8258,8445,10944,10379,7653,8449,8769,9344,11740,10452,8260,6731,6022,8290,10886,11136,9713,8707,9868,11198,10832,9114,7559,6574,5719,7690,9508,9691,8104,8481,8479,8953,8623,8304,7055,5749,5825,7366,9751,9863,7680,7852,8324,9150,8460,8217,7577,6472,6596,7589,9642,9649,8016,8419,8846,9164,8933,8183,6550,5889,5940,6845,11889,8293,6549,7030,7267,7115,6337,6277,4564,4328,4227,5317,6148,5781,4577],"flat_reference_value":17032.18648524967,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[5900.0,6100.0,6600.0,6500.0,6300.0,5700.0,5400.0,5500.0,6400.0,7000.0,6900.0,6100.0,6200.0,6300.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,6700.0,7300.0,7200.0,6400.0,6500.0,6600.0,7300.0,7100.0,6900.0,6300.0,6000.0,6100.0,7000.0,7700.0,7500.0,6700.0,6800.0,6900.0,7600.0,7500.0,7200.0,6600.0,6200.0,6500.0,7400.0,8000.0,7800.0,6900.0,7100.0,7200.0,7700.0,7900.0,7500.0,6900.0,6500.0,6700.0,7600.0,8300.0,8100.0,7200.0,7500.0,7600.0,8400.0,8200.0,7900.0,7200.0,6800.0,7100.0,8000.0,8700.0,8500.0,7600.0,7700.0,7800.0,8700.0,8500.0,8200.0,7500.0,7100.0,7300.0,8300.0,9000.0,8800.0,7800.0,7900.0,8000.0,8900.0,8600.0,8300.0,7600.0,7200.0,7400.0,8400.0,9100.0,8900.0,7900.0,7600.0,7800.0,8500.0,8300.0,8000.0,7300.0,6900.0,7100.0,8100.0,8700.0,8500.0,7500.0,7200.0,7300.0,8000.0,7900.0,7600.0,6900.0,6500.0,6700.0,7600.0,8200.0,8000.0,7100.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[10950.0,11100.0,12850.0,12400.0,12150.0,10100.0,9550.0,9750.0,11250.0,12900.0,12550.0,10900.0,11250.0,11150.0,13200.0,12700.0,12500.0,10350.0,9800.0,10050.0,11550.0,13250.0,12850.0,11200.0,11500.0,11400.0,13450.0,12950.0,12700.0,10550.0,9950.0,10200.0,11750.0,13500.0,13100.0,11400.0,11800.0,11650.0,13750.0,13250.0,13050.0,10800.0,10200.0,10450.0,12050.0,13800.0,13400.0,11700.0,12100.0,12250.0,13600.0,14200.0,14100.0,11700.0,10950.0,11100.0,12650.0,14400.0,14050.0,12350.0,12650.0,12450.0,14550.0,14100.0,13800.0,11450.0,10750.0,10950.0,12550.0,14250.0,13850.0,12050.0,12150.0,11900.0,13850.0,13300.0,13000.0,10750.0,10100.0,10300.0,11850.0,13450.0,13050.0,11250.0,11300.0,10950.0,12600.0,11950.0,11600.0,9600.0,9050.0,9200.0,10550.0,11950.0,11550.0,9950.0,10100.0,10150.0,11350.0,10900.0,10600.0,8750.0,8250.0,8400.0,9650.0,10950.0,10550.0,9100.0,9300.0,9050.0,10550.0,10150.0,9900.0,8200.0,7750.0,7900.0,9050.0,10300.0,9950.0,8600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[9150.0,10420.0,11650.0,11840.0,10720.0,7850.0,7110.0,7430.0,9280.0,11730.0,12210.0,8540.0,9320.0,10260.0,11480.0,11590.0,10510.0,7690.0,6980.0,7310.0,9150.0,11520.0,12040.0,8390.0,9070.0,9980.0,11240.0,11310.0,10250.0,7530.0,6780.0,7120.0,8940.0,11330.0,11760.0,8190.0,8910.0,9820.0,10980.0,11150.0,10080.0,7360.0,6620.0,6950.0,8750.0,11090.0,11520.0,8010.0,8740.0,9630.0,9810.0,10240.0,9450.0,7180.0,6510.0,6820.0,8630.0,10850.0,11210.0,7830.0,8580.0,9410.0,10620.0,10790.0,9740.0,7020.0,6390.0,6680.0,8460.0,10580.0,10950.0,7610.0,8340.0,9180.0,10290.0,10430.0,9380.0,6840.0,6220.0,6530.0,8220.0,10260.0,10610.0,7380.0,8090.0,8870.0,9930.0,10070.0,9050.0,6560.0,5980.0,6290.0,7910.0,9840.0,10180.0,7090.0,7780.0,8560.0,9580.0,9710.0,8730.0,6340.0,5790.0,6080.0,7650.0,9520.0,9840.0,6850.0,7520.0,8290.0,9270.0,9410.0,8460.0,6150.0,5610.0,5890.0,7410.0,9230.0,9540.0,6640.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[16600.0,18400.0,19300.0,18400.0,17500.0,15400.0,14900.0,15200.0,17500.0,19300.0,19300.0,15400.0,16000.0,17600.0,18500.0,17600.0,16800.0,14800.0,14300.0,14600.0,16800.0,18500.0,18500.0,14800.0,15200.0,16800.0,17600.0,16800.0,16000.0,14100.0,13600.0,13900.0,16000.0,17600.0,17600.0,14100.0,14400.0,16000.0,16700.0,16000.0,15200.0,13400.0,12900.0,13200.0,15200.0,16700.0,16700.0,13400.0,14700.0,16300.0,17000.0,16800.0,16000.0,13600.0,13200.0,13500.0,15500.0,17000.0,17000.0,13600.0,13500.0,14900.0,15600.0,14900.0,14200.0,12500.0,12100.0,12400.0,14200.0,15600.0,15600.0,12500.0,12400.0,13700.0,14300.0,13700.0,13000.0,11400.0,11100.0,11300.0,13000.0,14300.0,14300.0,11400.0,11400.0,12600.0,13200.0,12600.0,12000.0,10600.0,10200.0,10400.0,12000.0,13200.0,13200.0,10600.0,10900.0,12100.0,12700.0,12100.0,11500.0,10100.0,9800.0,10000.0,11500.0,12700.0,12700.0,10100.0,10500.0,11600.0,12100.0,11600.0,11000.0,9700.0,9400.0,9600.0,11000.0,12100.0,12100.0,9700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[12900.0,13400.0,14200.0,14000.0,13700.0,12300.0,11300.0,11200.0,12600.0,13900.0,13900.0,12200.0,12000.0,12400.0,13200.0,12900.0,12700.0,11400.0,10500.0,10400.0,11600.0,12800.0,12800.0,11300.0,11000.0,11300.0,12000.0,11900.0,11600.0,10500.0,9700.0,9600.0,10700.0,11800.0,11800.0,10400.0,10400.0,10700.0,11400.0,11200.0,11000.0,9900.0,9200.0,9100.0,10200.0,11200.0,11200.0,9900.0,10400.0,10700.0,11300.0,12200.0,12300.0,11000.0,10000.0,9700.0,10600.0,11700.0,11700.0,10400.0,10200.0,10400.0,11100.0,10800.0,10500.0,9500.0,8700.0,8600.0,9500.0,10400.0,10400.0,9200.0,9100.0,9300.0,9900.0,9700.0,9500.0,8600.0,7900.0,7800.0,8700.0,9600.0,9600.0,8500.0,8500.0,8800.0,9300.0,9200.0,9000.0,8100.0,7500.0,7400.0,8300.0,9100.0,9100.0,8100.0,8300.0,8600.0,9100.0,9000.0,8900.0,8000.0,7400.0,7300.0,8200.0,9000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8200.0,8700.0,8600.0,8400.0,7600.0,7100.0,7000.0,7800.0,8600.0,8500.0,7600.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[16700.0,14500.0,16200.0,14300.0,14600.0,10900.0,10100.0,11400.0,13600.0,15900.0,16100.0,11800.0,16300.0,14300.0,15900.0,14000.0,13700.0,10600.0,9900.0,10700.0,13300.0,15500.0,15700.0,11600.0,15500.0,13600.0,15100.0,13300.0,13100.0,10100.0,9400.0,10200.0,12700.0,14900.0,14600.0,11100.0,15000.0,13200.0,14600.0,12900.0,12700.0,9800.0,9100.0,9800.0,12300.0,14400.0,14100.0,10700.0,15400.0,13500.0,15800.0,14300.0,13800.0,10000.0,9300.0,10100.0,12600.0,14700.0,14900.0,11000.0,14600.0,12800.0,14300.0,12600.0,12400.0,9500.0,8800.0,9600.0,12000.0,14000.0,14200.0,10500.0,14300.0,12500.0,13900.0,12200.0,12000.0,9300.0,8600.0,9400.0,11700.0,13700.0,13800.0,10200.0,13900.0,12200.0,13600.0,11900.0,11700.0,9000.0,8400.0,9100.0,11400.0,13300.0,13500.0,9900.0,13700.0,12000.0,13400.0,11800.0,11600.0,8900.0,8300.0,9000.0,11200.0,13200.0,13300.0,9800.0,13600.0,11900.0,13300.0,11700.0,11500.0,8800.0,8200.0,8900.0,11100.0,13100.0,13200.0,9700.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2287.0,2375.0,2441.0,2294.0,2218.0,1762.0,1598.0,1615.0,2123.0,2330.0,2328.0,1651.0,2389.0,2421.0,2450.0,2342.0,2276.0,1804.0,1637.0,1659.0,2171.0,2393.0,2380.0,1692.0,2401.0,2488.0,2512.0,2436.0,2295.0,1887.0,1631.0,1734.0,2184.0,2447.0,2439.0,1698.0,2496.0,2503.0,2610.0,2458.0,2379.0,1896.0,1705.0,1740.0,2268.0,2536.0,2461.0,1772.0,2625.0,2704.0,3602.0,3548.0,3137.0,2261.0,1823.0,1890.0,2418.0,2671.0,2655.0,1888.0,2547.0,2560.0,2662.0,2514.0,2431.0,1938.0,1742.0,1778.0,2316.0,2592.0,2513.0,1810.0,2435.0,2449.0,2546.0,2405.0,2326.0,1854.0,1667.0,1701.0,2215.0,2479.0,2404.0,1731.0,2324.0,2337.0,2430.0,2295.0,2220.0,1770.0,1590.0,1624.0,2114.0,2367.0,2296.0,1652.0,2103.0,2114.0,2199.0,2076.0,2008.0,1602.0,1438.0,1470.0,1912.0,2141.0,2077.0,1495.0,1882.0,1891.0,1968.0,1858.0,1797.0,1433.0,1286.0,1315.0,1711.0,1916.0,1858.0,1337.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[7170.0,7080.0,8130.0,7780.0,7200.0,5870.0,5950.0,6280.0,7280.0,8330.0,8110.0,7050.0,7730.0,7380.0,8770.0,8390.0,7770.0,6330.0,6430.0,6790.0,7870.0,9000.0,8760.0,7620.0,8350.0,7960.0,9460.0,9050.0,8380.0,6830.0,6930.0,7320.0,8480.0,9700.0,9440.0,8210.0,8930.0,8510.0,10100.0,9650.0,8930.0,7260.0,7360.0,7760.0,8990.0,10270.0,9980.0,8670.0,9440.0,9370.0,11630.0,11890.0,10790.0,8620.0,8560.0,9200.0,10810.0,12530.0,12230.0,10360.0,11170.0,10690.0,12760.0,12060.0,10860.0,8620.0,8510.0,9120.0,10720.0,12320.0,11790.0,9900.0,10640.0,10150.0,12050.0,11320.0,10180.0,8040.0,7930.0,8460.0,9930.0,11420.0,10920.0,9210.0,9820.0,9310.0,11000.0,10250.0,9190.0,7240.0,7130.0,7560.0,8890.0,10210.0,9720.0,8160.0,9060.0,8900.0,10110.0,9450.0,8480.0,6670.0,6570.0,6980.0,8190.0,9410.0,8950.0,7500.0,8250.0,7820.0,9200.0,8610.0,7710.0,6070.0,5970.0,6340.0,7460.0,8580.0,8140.0,6830.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[870.0,1000.0,1040.0,1030.0,950.0,840.0,780.0,860.0,1030.0,1060.0,1050.0,840.0,900.0,1030.0,1080.0,1060.0,980.0,860.0,800.0,880.0,1060.0,1100.0,1080.0,860.0,940.0,1070.0,1120.0,1100.0,1020.0,900.0,840.0,920.0,1100.0,1140.0,1120.0,900.0,980.0,1110.0,1170.0,1140.0,1060.0,930.0,870.0,950.0,1140.0,1190.0,1170.0,930.0,1010.0,1160.0,1210.0,1190.0,1100.0,970.0,900.0,990.0,1190.0,1230.0,1210.0,970.0,990.0,1130.0,1190.0,1170.0,1080.0,950.0,890.0,970.0,1170.0,1210.0,1190.0,950.0,960.0,1090.0,1140.0,1120.0,1040.0,920.0,850.0,940.0,1120.0,1160.0,1140.0,920.0,920.0,1050.0,1100.0,1080.0,1000.0,880.0,820.0,900.0,1080.0,1120.0,1100.0,880.0,880.0,1010.0,1060.0,1040.0,960.0,850.0,790.0,860.0,1040.0,1080.0,1060.0,850.0,850.0,970.0,1010.0,990.0,920.0,810.0,750.0,830.0,990.0,1030.0,1010.0,810.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2300.0,1950.0,2350.0,2150.0,1900.0,1650.0,1500.0,1850.0,2350.0,2450.0,2250.0,1800.0,2380.0,2050.0,2480.0,2240.0,1980.0,1720.0,1580.0,1920.0,2470.0,2580.0,2330.0,1880.0,2350.0,2120.0,2520.0,2330.0,2020.0,1760.0,1620.0,1980.0,2520.0,2620.0,2410.0,1920.0,2480.0,2140.0,2610.0,2410.0,2110.0,1820.0,1660.0,2060.0,2610.0,2720.0,2480.0,1960.0,2540.0,2210.0,3120.0,3260.0,2820.0,2320.0,2020.0,2420.0,3140.0,3240.0,3010.0,2360.0,2700.0,2320.0,2810.0,2590.0,2210.0,1910.0,1760.0,2160.0,2810.0,2910.0,2680.0,2110.0,2640.0,2260.0,2760.0,2540.0,2160.0,1860.0,1710.0,2110.0,2760.0,2860.0,2630.0,2060.0,2520.0,2160.0,2620.0,2410.0,2060.0,1760.0,1610.0,2010.0,2620.0,2710.0,2510.0,1960.0,2460.0,2210.0,2560.0,2360.0,2020.0,1710.0,1560.0,1960.0,2560.0,2660.0,2460.0,1910.0,2550.0,2100.0,2650.0,2350.0,2000.0,1800.0,1650.0,2050.0,2650.0,2750.0,2550.0,2000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2625.0,2725.0,2800.0,2675.0,2550.0,2325.0,2125.0,2200.0,2750.0,2825.0,2675.0,2050.0,2730.0,2834.0,2912.0,2782.0,2652.0,2418.0,2210.0,2288.0,2860.0,2938.0,2782.0,2132.0,2835.0,2943.0,3024.0,2889.0,2754.0,2511.0,2295.0,2376.0,2970.0,3051.0,2889.0,2214.0,2993.0,3107.0,3192.0,3050.0,2907.0,2651.0,2423.0,2508.0,3135.0,3221.0,3050.0,2337.0,3098.0,3216.0,3965.0,4419.0,3912.0,3155.0,2633.0,2596.0,3245.0,3334.0,3157.0,2419.0,3045.0,3161.0,3248.0,3103.0,2958.0,2697.0,2465.0,2552.0,3190.0,3277.0,3103.0,2378.0,2940.0,3052.0,3136.0,2996.0,2856.0,2604.0,2380.0,2464.0,3080.0,3164.0,2996.0,2296.0,2814.0,2921.0,3002.0,2868.0,2734.0,2492.0,2278.0,2358.0,2948.0,3028.0,2868.0,2198.0,2751.0,2856.0,2934.0,2803.0,2672.0,2437.0,2227.0,2306.0,2882.0,2957.0,2803.0,2148.0,2604.0,2703.0,2778.0,2654.0,2530.0,2306.0,2108.0,2182.0,2728.0,2802.0,2654.0,2034.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[885.0,894.0,995.0,930.0,885.0,832.0,795.0,770.0,920.0,956.0,920.0,770.0,875.0,884.0,990.0,920.0,875.0,825.0,790.0,760.0,910.0,945.0,910.0,760.0,895.0,904.0,1010.0,940.0,895.0,840.0,805.0,780.0,930.0,965.0,930.0,780.0,915.0,924.0,1035.0,960.0,915.0,860.0,825.0,795.0,950.0,990.0,950.0,795.0,965.0,975.0,1330.0,1195.0,1100.0,995.0,940.0,890.0,1045.0,1065.0,1015.0,840.0,955.0,965.0,1100.0,1010.0,955.0,890.0,850.0,820.0,985.0,1020.0,985.0,820.0,1005.0,1015.0,1135.0,1055.0,1005.0,945.0,905.0,875.0,1045.0,1085.0,1045.0,875.0,1035.0,1045.0,1170.0,1090.0,1035.0,975.0,930.0,900.0,1075.0,1120.0,1075.0,900.0,1055.0,1065.0,1195.0,1110.0,1055.0,990.0,950.0,920.0,1100.0,1140.0,1100.0,920.0,1065.0,1075.0,1205.0,1120.0,1065.0,1000.0,960.0,925.0,1110.0,1150.0,1110.0,925.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,3300.0,3600.0,3700.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3400.0,3800.0,3900.0,3300.0,3600.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3500.0,3900.0,4000.0,3400.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3600.0,4000.0,4100.0,3500.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3900.0,4300.0,4400.0,3700.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3900.0,4300.0,4400.0,3700.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3900.0,4300.0,4400.0,3700.0,4000.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,4000.0,4400.0,4500.0,3800.0,4100.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,4000.0,4400.0,4500.0,3800.0,4100.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,4000.0,4400.0,4500.0,3800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2120.0,2040.0,1980.0,1820.0,1740.0,1600.0,1520.0,1610.0,2060.0,2260.0,2080.0,1840.0,2390.0,2260.0,2180.0,2020.0,1930.0,1790.0,1710.0,1810.0,2270.0,2460.0,2230.0,2040.0,2600.0,2480.0,2410.0,2220.0,2100.0,1990.0,1880.0,1980.0,2480.0,2700.0,2510.0,2250.0,2860.0,2780.0,2630.0,2440.0,2290.0,2130.0,2050.0,2180.0,2680.0,2980.0,2740.0,2460.0,3180.0,3010.0,2900.0,2680.0,2520.0,2360.0,2240.0,2390.0,2950.0,3230.0,2990.0,2650.0,3240.0,3120.0,3010.0,2810.0,2600.0,2450.0,2330.0,2470.0,3070.0,3350.0,3110.0,2780.0,3360.0,3220.0,3140.0,2920.0,2720.0,2560.0,2410.0,2580.0,3190.0,3440.0,3160.0,2870.0,3290.0,3170.0,3080.0,2870.0,2690.0,2510.0,2390.0,2550.0,3130.0,3390.0,3120.0,2830.0,3160.0,3060.0,2980.0,2780.0,2610.0,2450.0,2330.0,2470.0,3020.0,3280.0,3010.0,2720.0,3250.0,3120.0,3020.0,2820.0,2660.0,2490.0,2380.0,2510.0,3080.0,3330.0,3060.0,2760.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[612.0,624.0,693.0,671.0,682.0,628.0,586.0,604.0,735.0,762.0,718.0,568.0,621.0,643.0,710.0,672.0,698.0,641.0,594.0,616.0,756.0,781.0,739.0,583.0,608.0,627.0,694.0,663.0,679.0,626.0,579.0,598.0,727.0,753.0,711.0,554.0,587.0,613.0,675.0,646.0,661.0,606.0,558.0,581.0,706.0,735.0,692.0,542.0,591.0,618.0,692.0,681.0,713.0,665.0,619.0,641.0,778.0,812.0,769.0,604.0,641.0,658.0,729.0,698.0,714.0,659.0,612.0,628.0,758.0,789.0,744.0,582.0,603.0,621.0,681.0,650.0,667.0,611.0,566.0,583.0,711.0,739.0,694.0,539.0,572.0,589.0,648.0,620.0,634.0,582.0,536.0,557.0,678.0,706.0,664.0,517.0,544.0,563.0,618.0,594.0,607.0,558.0,516.0,532.0,648.0,674.0,636.0,496.0,521.0,538.0,591.0,566.0,582.0,534.0,491.0,509.0,621.0,647.0,607.0,473.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1450.0,1420.0,1480.0,1390.0,1300.0,1180.0,1080.0,1100.0,1350.0,1420.0,1380.0,1200.0,1400.0,1370.0,1430.0,1340.0,1260.0,1140.0,1050.0,1060.0,1300.0,1370.0,1330.0,1150.0,1350.0,1320.0,1380.0,1290.0,1220.0,1100.0,1010.0,1030.0,1260.0,1320.0,1280.0,1110.0,1300.0,1270.0,1330.0,1240.0,1170.0,1060.0,980.0,1000.0,1220.0,1270.0,1230.0,1070.0,1280.0,1250.0,1400.0,1300.0,1210.0,1090.0,1020.0,1030.0,1230.0,1260.0,1210.0,1080.0,1230.0,1200.0,1260.0,1180.0,1110.0,1000.0,930.0,950.0,1150.0,1200.0,1160.0,1020.0,1180.0,1150.0,1200.0,1120.0,1060.0,960.0,900.0,910.0,1100.0,1140.0,1100.0,970.0,1100.0,1070.0,1120.0,1050.0,990.0,900.0,840.0,850.0,1040.0,1080.0,1040.0,920.0,1000.0,980.0,1030.0,960.0,910.0,830.0,780.0,790.0,960.0,1000.0,960.0,850.0,940.0,920.0,960.0,900.0,860.0,790.0,740.0,750.0,900.0,940.0,900.0,800.0]}},{"title":"Bresenham's line algorithm","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Bresenham's line algorithm\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15907,16663,16069,15606,14736,12669,12121,14480,15050,16071,16816,16555,25342,18033,17717,15762,17013,13261,13753,16293,16655,17846,19623,16309,18220,17251,18596,18042,21368,12823,14399,17103,16503,17274,17777,16479,16527,17903,19253,18811,16813,11567,12343,14561,16260,16905,16910,16452,16249,17091,16571,15153,16158,13489,12262,14175,20263,17297,15431,15821,16628,15542,18123,15606,14647,15025,14084,13819,16757,16171,14500,16856,14929,15705,16995,14156,14236,13409,12304,12762,15350,14942,16391,15017,14274,13955,16299,13472,13973,11748,10671,12141,11965,14325,14355,13762,13740,13873,15006,13346,13516,10694,10792,10713,12488,12764,11470,11099,11211,10726,12588,10854,10052,9675,8252,8176,8893,10228,9870,8304],"flat_reference_value":16976.36599743162,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[14500.0,16400.0,18000.0,17600.0,15700.0,13200.0,12100.0,13300.0,15900.0,18400.0,17900.0,14300.0,15100.0,17200.0,19000.0,18500.0,16400.0,13800.0,12700.0,13900.0,16600.0,19400.0,18800.0,14900.0,15800.0,17900.0,19800.0,19300.0,17100.0,14300.0,13200.0,14500.0,17400.0,20200.0,19700.0,15600.0,16200.0,18400.0,20300.0,19800.0,17600.0,14700.0,13500.0,14900.0,17900.0,20800.0,20200.0,16000.0,16500.0,18800.0,21000.0,22000.0,19100.0,16100.0,15000.0,16300.0,19300.0,22400.0,21500.0,17200.0,17000.0,19200.0,21100.0,20500.0,18300.0,15400.0,14100.0,15600.0,18700.0,21600.0,20900.0,16600.0,16200.0,18300.0,20100.0,19500.0,17400.0,14600.0,13400.0,14800.0,17700.0,20500.0,19900.0,15700.0,15300.0,17200.0,18800.0,18200.0,16200.0,13500.0,12400.0,13700.0,16300.0,18800.0,18200.0,14300.0,13800.0,15500.0,16900.0,16500.0,14600.0,12100.0,11200.0,12300.0,14700.0,17000.0,16400.0,12900.0,12500.0,14000.0,15300.0,14900.0,13200.0,11000.0,10100.0,11100.0,13300.0,15400.0,14800.0,11600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[25400.0,28100.0,30500.0,29200.0,26300.0,22400.0,21100.0,22000.0,28600.0,32800.0,30900.0,24100.0,25800.0,28400.0,31200.0,29000.0,26700.0,22600.0,21400.0,22300.0,28900.0,33100.0,31000.0,23800.0,25600.0,27900.0,30800.0,29400.0,26100.0,21900.0,21200.0,22100.0,28200.0,32500.0,30400.0,23900.0,25500.0,27800.0,30600.0,29100.0,26400.0,22100.0,21500.0,22200.0,28500.0,32900.0,30200.0,26100.0,25900.0,28000.0,27400.0,29800.0,27900.0,23800.0,22700.0,23100.0,28800.0,33200.0,31100.0,25200.0,26800.0,28300.0,31000.0,29500.0,26900.0,22800.0,21600.0,22400.0,28100.0,31900.0,29800.0,27400.0,25700.0,27200.0,29900.0,28100.0,25600.0,21800.0,20700.0,21400.0,26900.0,30500.0,28700.0,22900.0,24100.0,25200.0,26800.0,24400.0,22100.0,18900.0,17800.0,18300.0,22400.0,25100.0,23300.0,18900.0,19800.0,21000.0,22300.0,21100.0,19000.0,16200.0,15600.0,16000.0,19400.0,21800.0,20200.0,16500.0,17300.0,18400.0,19700.0,18600.0,16900.0,14600.0,14100.0,14500.0,17600.0,19800.0,18300.0,15100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[22400.0,27800.0,30500.0,28900.0,23200.0,17100.0,15800.0,17900.0,26400.0,32800.0,31500.0,21300.0,23100.0,28600.0,31900.0,30200.0,24500.0,17800.0,16400.0,18500.0,27200.0,34100.0,32700.0,22000.0,22800.0,27900.0,31200.0,29400.0,23800.0,17200.0,15900.0,17800.0,26500.0,33200.0,31800.0,21400.0,21900.0,26800.0,29900.0,28200.0,22700.0,16500.0,15100.0,17000.0,25400.0,31800.0,30500.0,20400.0,21200.0,25500.0,24100.0,25800.0,21000.0,15200.0,14000.0,15800.0,23600.0,29400.0,28100.0,18900.0,19800.0,23900.0,26800.0,25100.0,20200.0,14600.0,13400.0,15000.0,22300.0,27800.0,26400.0,17800.0,18500.0,22100.0,24900.0,23200.0,18700.0,13500.0,12200.0,13800.0,20600.0,25600.0,24300.0,16200.0,16100.0,19200.0,21400.0,19800.0,15900.0,11400.0,10200.0,11500.0,17200.0,21600.0,20400.0,13700.0,14200.0,16800.0,18900.0,17500.0,14000.0,10100.0,9100.0,10200.0,15300.0,19100.0,18000.0,12100.0,12600.0,15100.0,16900.0,15600.0,12500.0,9000.0,8100.0,9100.0,13700.0,17100.0,16200.0,10800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[20900.0,23100.0,24200.0,23800.0,22400.0,19400.0,18700.0,18700.0,22000.0,24200.0,24600.0,20900.0,20000.0,22100.0,23100.0,22700.0,21400.0,18500.0,17900.0,17900.0,21000.0,23100.0,23500.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21600.0,20400.0,17600.0,17000.0,17000.0,20000.0,22000.0,22400.0,19000.0,18000.0,20000.0,20900.0,20500.0,19400.0,16700.0,16200.0,16200.0,19000.0,20900.0,21300.0,18000.0,17600.0,19400.0,21300.0,21600.0,20200.0,16800.0,15700.0,15700.0,18500.0,20400.0,20700.0,17600.0,16600.0,18400.0,19300.0,18900.0,17900.0,15400.0,14900.0,14900.0,17500.0,19300.0,19600.0,16600.0,15200.0,16800.0,17600.0,17300.0,16300.0,14100.0,13600.0,13600.0,16000.0,17600.0,17900.0,15200.0,14300.0,15800.0,16500.0,16200.0,15300.0,13200.0,12800.0,12800.0,15000.0,16500.0,16800.0,14300.0,13300.0,14700.0,15400.0,15100.0,14300.0,12300.0,11900.0,11900.0,14000.0,15400.0,15700.0,13300.0,12400.0,13700.0,14300.0,14000.0,13300.0,11400.0,11100.0,11100.0,13000.0,14300.0,14600.0,12400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[35000.0,37800.0,38500.0,36800.0,35000.0,30800.0,28700.0,29800.0,35700.0,39200.0,38500.0,33300.0,33000.0,35600.0,36300.0,34700.0,33000.0,29000.0,27100.0,28000.0,33700.0,37000.0,36300.0,31400.0,30000.0,32400.0,33000.0,31500.0,30000.0,26400.0,24600.0,25500.0,30600.0,33600.0,33000.0,28500.0,28000.0,30200.0,30800.0,29400.0,28000.0,24600.0,23000.0,23800.0,28600.0,31400.0,30800.0,26600.0,27000.0,29200.0,29000.0,29500.0,28500.0,25000.0,22500.0,23000.0,27500.0,30200.0,29700.0,25700.0,24000.0,25900.0,26400.0,25200.0,24000.0,21100.0,19700.0,20400.0,24500.0,26900.0,26400.0,22800.0,20000.0,21600.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,17600.0,16400.0,17000.0,20400.0,22400.0,22000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19400.0,19800.0,18900.0,18000.0,15800.0,14800.0,15300.0,18400.0,20200.0,19800.0,17100.0,17000.0,18400.0,18700.0,17900.0,17000.0,15000.0,13900.0,14500.0,17300.0,19000.0,18700.0,16200.0,16000.0,17300.0,17600.0,16800.0,16000.0,14100.0,13100.0,13600.0,16300.0,17900.0,17600.0,15200.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[36800.0,42400.0,43800.0,43600.0,39600.0,34300.0,31700.0,37500.0,45200.0,44100.0,42900.0,32400.0,37300.0,43800.0,46200.0,43900.0,41500.0,34600.0,32300.0,38400.0,46000.0,45400.0,43900.0,33100.0,36200.0,42700.0,44600.0,42800.0,40500.0,33600.0,31800.0,37900.0,44700.0,45600.0,41400.0,31500.0,35000.0,41100.0,43200.0,40900.0,38900.0,32200.0,30400.0,36300.0,43500.0,45800.0,40000.0,30200.0,43800.0,50900.0,67500.0,71000.0,61500.0,50300.0,45400.0,47800.0,54600.0,55900.0,50000.0,39500.0,42200.0,46800.0,48900.0,47600.0,44300.0,37900.0,35400.0,42100.0,48300.0,49600.0,46500.0,35700.0,35400.0,41600.0,42200.0,41300.0,38600.0,32700.0,30800.0,36700.0,42000.0,44200.0,40300.0,30900.0,33100.0,38900.0,39500.0,38700.0,36000.0,30600.0,28800.0,34400.0,39300.0,41600.0,37600.0,28900.0,32200.0,37900.0,38400.0,37600.0,35000.0,29800.0,28000.0,33400.0,38200.0,39100.0,36600.0,28100.0,31300.0,36800.0,37200.0,36500.0,34000.0,28900.0,27200.0,32400.0,37000.0,37900.0,35400.0,27300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[10842.0,11457.0,11803.0,10915.0,8620.0,7054.0,6428.0,7431.0,10467.0,12135.0,11388.0,7924.0,11350.0,12012.0,12245.0,11490.0,9023.0,7410.0,6785.0,7860.0,10985.0,12670.0,12045.0,8320.0,12015.0,12580.0,12840.0,12030.0,9410.0,7755.0,7120.0,8225.0,11540.0,13310.0,12620.0,8745.0,12240.0,12890.0,13015.0,12210.0,9580.0,7890.0,7245.0,8380.0,11720.0,14185.0,12840.0,8890.0,13100.0,13800.0,15200.0,14850.0,11200.0,8450.0,7800.0,8900.0,12600.0,14500.0,13800.0,9600.0,12950.0,13580.0,13720.0,12900.0,10050.0,8260.0,7650.0,8850.0,12380.0,14240.0,13560.0,9380.0,12600.0,13220.0,13350.0,12580.0,9780.0,8040.0,7460.0,8620.0,12050.0,13880.0,13210.0,9120.0,11520.0,12080.0,12150.0,11420.0,8930.0,7350.0,6820.0,7870.0,11010.0,12640.0,12030.0,8320.0,10420.0,10930.0,11040.0,10350.0,8080.0,6650.0,6175.0,7120.0,9970.0,11480.0,10920.0,7550.0,9880.0,10350.0,10460.0,9820.0,7670.0,6310.0,5860.0,6760.0,9450.0,10890.0,10360.0,7160.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[16100.0,19200.0,21300.0,21600.0,19900.0,15400.0,13700.0,15200.0,18900.0,21400.0,20300.0,15800.0,16400.0,20100.0,21500.0,22600.0,20700.0,16500.0,14200.0,15800.0,19700.0,22100.0,21300.0,16200.0,17500.0,20300.0,22900.0,23000.0,22000.0,16600.0,15100.0,16000.0,21000.0,22500.0,22700.0,17000.0,17700.0,21500.0,23100.0,24300.0,22300.0,17700.0,15300.0,17000.0,21200.0,23900.0,22900.0,17600.0,18500.0,22400.0,26000.0,27200.0,25000.0,19000.0,16800.0,18200.0,22000.0,25100.0,23800.0,18300.0,19200.0,23500.0,25200.0,26500.0,24200.0,19300.0,16700.0,18600.0,23100.0,26000.0,24900.0,19100.0,20400.0,23700.0,26600.0,26800.0,25600.0,19400.0,17700.0,18700.0,24500.0,26200.0,26400.0,19800.0,20500.0,25000.0,26900.0,28200.0,25900.0,20500.0,17800.0,19800.0,24600.0,27700.0,26600.0,21000.0,21600.0,25200.0,28300.0,28500.0,27200.0,20600.0,18900.0,19900.0,26100.0,27900.0,28100.0,21100.0,21800.0,26500.0,28600.0,29900.0,27500.0,21800.0,18900.0,21000.0,26200.0,29400.0,28300.0,21600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[12300.0,13900.0,15300.0,14700.0,13400.0,11200.0,10900.0,12100.0,14300.0,15400.0,15000.0,12600.0,12600.0,14700.0,15700.0,15400.0,13700.0,11900.0,11200.0,12300.0,15100.0,15700.0,15400.0,12900.0,13200.0,15100.0,16400.0,15800.0,14400.0,12200.0,11700.0,12900.0,15500.0,16500.0,16000.0,13500.0,13700.0,15600.0,17000.0,16300.0,14900.0,12600.0,12100.0,13400.0,16000.0,17100.0,16600.0,13900.0,14200.0,16500.0,18000.0,17500.0,15800.0,13400.0,12600.0,14000.0,16900.0,17600.0,17200.0,14500.0,13800.0,15600.0,16900.0,16400.0,14800.0,12500.0,11900.0,13300.0,16000.0,16700.0,16300.0,13700.0,13300.0,15100.0,16300.0,15800.0,14300.0,12100.0,11500.0,12800.0,15400.0,16200.0,15800.0,13400.0,12500.0,14100.0,15200.0,14700.0,13300.0,11300.0,10700.0,11900.0,14300.0,15000.0,14700.0,12300.0,11600.0,13000.0,14100.0,13600.0,12300.0,10500.0,9900.0,11000.0,13300.0,13900.0,13600.0,11400.0,10700.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,11300.0,9700.0,9100.0,10100.0,12200.0,12900.0,12600.0,10500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3270.0,3230.0,3630.0,3290.0,3030.0,2170.0,2200.0,2360.0,3770.0,3590.0,3530.0,2820.0,3210.0,3610.0,3500.0,3680.0,2890.0,2450.0,2030.0,2640.0,3490.0,4020.0,3540.0,2630.0,3580.0,3370.0,3760.0,3870.0,3050.0,2360.0,2410.0,2540.0,3790.0,3750.0,3830.0,2690.0,3380.0,3800.0,3610.0,3770.0,3430.0,2580.0,2180.0,2780.0,4220.0,4030.0,3720.0,3010.0,3650.0,4030.0,4910.0,4620.0,3770.0,2550.0,2510.0,3000.0,4590.0,4620.0,3870.0,3220.0,4060.0,4380.0,4350.0,4300.0,3530.0,2680.0,2660.0,2970.0,4390.0,4250.0,4270.0,3020.0,3590.0,4050.0,4330.0,3810.0,3410.0,2860.0,2390.0,3070.0,4030.0,4820.0,3840.0,3200.0,3790.0,3740.0,4130.0,3780.0,3550.0,2490.0,2500.0,2680.0,4120.0,4160.0,4210.0,2960.0,3500.0,3940.0,3700.0,3860.0,3090.0,2670.0,2280.0,2880.0,3730.0,4300.0,3740.0,3110.0,3660.0,3620.0,3910.0,3510.0,3300.0,2430.0,2460.0,2590.0,4060.0,4070.0,3950.0,2800.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[12574.0,16890.0,19666.0,18096.0,16442.0,11232.0,10639.0,13218.0,19968.0,19666.0,17472.0,11284.0,13328.0,17286.0,20846.0,19182.0,17429.0,11906.0,11278.0,14012.0,21166.0,20846.0,18520.0,11961.0,14334.0,18590.0,22420.0,20629.0,18744.0,12804.0,12129.0,15069.0,22764.0,22420.0,19918.0,12864.0,15340.0,19895.0,23993.0,22077.0,20060.0,13703.0,12980.0,16126.0,24361.0,23993.0,21316.0,13766.0,16597.0,22294.0,25960.0,23887.0,21704.0,14826.0,14044.0,17448.0,26358.0,25960.0,23063.0,14895.0,17352.0,22504.0,27140.0,24972.0,22691.0,15500.0,14682.0,18241.0,27556.0,27140.0,24111.0,15572.0,16346.0,21199.0,25566.0,23525.0,21375.0,14602.0,13831.0,17184.0,25958.0,25566.0,22714.0,14669.0,14082.0,18264.0,22026.0,20268.0,18415.0,12580.0,11916.0,14805.0,22364.0,22026.0,19569.0,12638.0,11568.0,15538.0,18093.0,16648.0,15127.0,10333.0,9788.0,12161.0,18371.0,18093.0,16074.0,10381.0,9556.0,12393.0,14946.0,13753.0,12496.0,8536.0,8086.0,10046.0,15176.0,14946.0,13279.0,8576.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2470.0,2690.0,2940.0,3020.0,2830.0,2500.0,2340.0,2500.0,2910.0,3050.0,2750.0,2420.0,2550.0,2780.0,3040.0,3120.0,2920.0,2580.0,2410.0,2580.0,3010.0,3150.0,2840.0,2500.0,2650.0,2890.0,3160.0,3240.0,3040.0,2680.0,2510.0,2680.0,3130.0,3270.0,2950.0,2600.0,2760.0,3000.0,3280.0,3370.0,3150.0,2790.0,2600.0,2790.0,3250.0,3400.0,3060.0,2700.0,2810.0,3070.0,4100.0,4250.0,3830.0,3150.0,2940.0,3060.0,3610.0,3870.0,3410.0,2990.0,3200.0,3500.0,4150.0,4250.0,3900.0,3300.0,3080.0,3200.0,3750.0,4000.0,3580.0,3100.0,3140.0,3420.0,4080.0,4180.0,3830.0,3260.0,3040.0,3150.0,3680.0,3950.0,3520.0,3040.0,3100.0,3380.0,4030.0,4120.0,3790.0,3220.0,3000.0,3120.0,3650.0,3910.0,3480.0,3010.0,3040.0,3320.0,3950.0,4040.0,3720.0,3150.0,2940.0,3050.0,3580.0,3840.0,3410.0,2950.0,3000.0,3270.0,3890.0,3970.0,3660.0,3100.0,2890.0,3000.0,3520.0,3780.0,3360.0,2900.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1500.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1550.0,1700.0,1750.0,1400.0,1550.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1550.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1600.0,1750.0,1800.0,1450.0,1600.0,1750.0,1850.0,1750.0,1600.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1650.0,1800.0,1850.0,1450.0,1600.0,1750.0,1850.0,1750.0,1550.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1650.0,1800.0,1800.0,1450.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1450.0,1300.0,1400.0,1750.0,1900.0,1900.0,1500.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1650.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1650.0,1800.0,1800.0,1400.0,1550.0,1650.0,1750.0,1650.0,1500.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0,1500.0,1650.0,1650.0,1300.0,1450.0,1550.0,1650.0,1550.0,1400.0,1100.0,1050.0,1150.0,1400.0,1550.0,1550.0,1200.0,1350.0,1450.0,1550.0,1450.0,1300.0,1000.0,950.0,1050.0,1300.0,1450.0,1450.0,1100.0,1250.0,1350.0,1450.0,1350.0,1200.0,950.0,900.0,1000.0,1250.0,1350.0,1350.0,1050.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[8890.0,7730.0,7120.0,6470.0,6700.0,5780.0,5450.0,6320.0,9260.0,7640.0,6610.0,5630.0,9880.0,8310.0,8570.0,7060.0,7310.0,6420.0,5930.0,6840.0,10040.0,8400.0,7180.0,6110.0,10460.0,9020.0,8340.0,7630.0,8430.0,6920.0,6430.0,7380.0,11080.0,8870.0,7760.0,6660.0,11520.0,9520.0,8860.0,8120.0,8310.0,7380.0,6820.0,7820.0,11470.0,10090.0,8230.0,7010.0,12480.0,10810.0,12740.0,12920.0,11250.0,9180.0,8320.0,9410.0,14620.0,11690.0,9620.0,8020.0,13080.0,11480.0,11120.0,9560.0,9410.0,8030.0,7260.0,8840.0,14110.0,11080.0,9000.0,7380.0,12160.0,10770.0,10220.0,8890.0,8610.0,7580.0,7140.0,8460.0,13220.0,10330.0,8480.0,7290.0,11310.0,10630.0,8910.0,8790.0,8370.0,7410.0,7080.0,7980.0,13030.0,9620.0,8520.0,7160.0,11980.0,11160.0,9550.0,8760.0,9560.0,7820.0,7470.0,8280.0,13390.0,10170.0,8800.0,7570.0,12540.0,11750.0,9950.0,9180.0,9780.0,8290.0,7710.0,8810.0,14020.0,11100.0,9240.0,7880.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2380.0,2200.0,2450.0,2310.0,2200.0,2050.0,1900.0,1980.0,2240.0,2490.0,2320.0,1900.0,2250.0,2100.0,2320.0,2200.0,2110.0,1970.0,1820.0,1900.0,2180.0,2390.0,2240.0,1830.0,2160.0,1990.0,2220.0,2100.0,2010.0,1870.0,1740.0,1810.0,2070.0,2290.0,2130.0,1740.0,2050.0,1900.0,2110.0,1990.0,1900.0,1770.0,1640.0,1710.0,1960.0,2160.0,2020.0,1650.0,1980.0,1860.0,1980.0,2100.0,2200.0,2140.0,1980.0,1940.0,2180.0,2320.0,2180.0,1800.0,2020.0,1900.0,2100.0,1990.0,1910.0,1770.0,1640.0,1710.0,1970.0,2160.0,2020.0,1640.0,1920.0,1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,1810.0,1690.0,1570.0,1630.0,1870.0,2060.0,1930.0,1570.0,1840.0,1720.0,1910.0,1810.0,1730.0,1610.0,1490.0,1550.0,1780.0,1960.0,1840.0,1500.0,1770.0,1650.0,1830.0,1740.0,1660.0,1540.0,1430.0,1490.0,1710.0,1880.0,1760.0,1440.0,1710.0,1600.0,1770.0,1680.0,1600.0,1490.0,1380.0,1430.0,1650.0,1810.0,1690.0,1390.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3780.0,4140.0,4140.0,3780.0,3420.0,2880.0,2700.0,3240.0,4140.0,4140.0,3780.0,3060.0,3675.0,4025.0,4025.0,3675.0,3325.0,2800.0,2625.0,3150.0,4025.0,4025.0,3675.0,2975.0,3570.0,3910.0,3910.0,3570.0,3230.0,2720.0,2550.0,3060.0,3910.0,3910.0,3570.0,2890.0,3465.0,3795.0,3795.0,3465.0,3135.0,2640.0,2475.0,2970.0,3795.0,3795.0,3465.0,2805.0,3570.0,3910.0,4200.0,3800.0,3230.0,2720.0,2550.0,3060.0,3910.0,3910.0,3570.0,2890.0,3360.0,3680.0,3680.0,3360.0,3040.0,2560.0,2400.0,2880.0,3680.0,3680.0,3360.0,2720.0,3045.0,3335.0,3335.0,3045.0,2755.0,2320.0,2175.0,2610.0,3335.0,3335.0,3045.0,2465.0,2835.0,3105.0,3105.0,2835.0,2565.0,2160.0,2025.0,2430.0,3105.0,3105.0,2835.0,2295.0,2520.0,2760.0,2760.0,2520.0,2280.0,1920.0,1800.0,2160.0,2760.0,2760.0,2520.0,2040.0,2205.0,2415.0,2415.0,2205.0,1995.0,1680.0,1575.0,1890.0,2415.0,2415.0,2205.0,1785.0]}},{"title":"BitLocker","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"BitLocker\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[22432,22594,23660,20804,21679,21187,25342,25410,24553,23762,22841,21954,24207,23456,26930,23355,28245,25220,23865,23949,23297,25690,26107,22950,26641,25558,27339,26622,29848,24669,26523,27890,26480,27689,29253,24009,27938,24901,26696,25098,24179,21504,23407,22893,22497,22684,20269,19362,22424,20052,21030,20207,19599,17391,17242,16919,16986,19168,18939,18176,18155,15296,16585,14010,13786,15723,20035,17993,18237,18173,16134,15555,15701,15052,15515,13057,13795,12599,13587,19514,15545,13840,13815,11625,14260,13794,14912,11813,12795,12163,11649,13151,12692,12932,12411,11939,16288,15058,13473,11534,12931,9768,19648,11895,11287,11546,10198,9394,11426,8752,8672,6755,7509,6010,5735,6205,6750,8168,10299,7464],"flat_reference_value":16962.839035621382,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[24000.0,23500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25500.0,24500.0,23500.0,25000.0,26500.0,27500.0,27000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,29000.0,28000.0,36000.0,32000.0,29500.0,30500.0,31500.0,33000.0,32000.0,27500.0,31500.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31500.0,31000.0,32500.0,33000.0,35000.0,42000.0,34000.0,38000.0,35000.0,37500.0,36500.0,38000.0,36000.0,36500.0,37000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,34000.0,40000.0,38000.0,44000.0,47000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,38000.0,43000.0,40000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,54000.0,49000.0,42000.0,48000.0,45000.0,49000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,51000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,43000.0,50000.0,47000.0,51000.0,48000.0,51000.0,49000.0,47000.0,50000.0,50000.0,55000.0,52000.0,45000.0,52000.0,59000.0,55000.0,53000.0,57000.0,54000.0,105000.0,65000.0,57000.0,64000.0,58000.0,50000.0,59000.0,55000.0,59000.0,57000.0,59000.0,56000.0,57000.0,58000.0,60000.0,67000.0,59000.0,51000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[56200.0,53800.0,58400.0,56900.0,57500.0,54800.0,53200.0,56100.0,57800.0,59400.0,58900.0,52400.0,58600.0,54100.0,61200.0,57400.0,63500.0,58900.0,56200.0,58400.0,59700.0,62100.0,60800.0,54300.0,61500.0,56000.0,62400.0,60100.0,61300.0,57800.0,56900.0,59200.0,59800.0,63400.0,76800.0,56500.0,62300.0,56900.0,63100.0,60700.0,61900.0,56800.0,58400.0,59100.0,60500.0,64200.0,61400.0,55600.0,63200.0,58900.0,68400.0,66700.0,64100.0,61500.0,59800.0,59200.0,61800.0,63900.0,61700.0,56800.0,61900.0,56400.0,62800.0,60200.0,59600.0,73500.0,64200.0,61400.0,63800.0,76400.0,67200.0,58900.0,63400.0,57200.0,63900.0,59100.0,59800.0,57400.0,55800.0,57900.0,59300.0,61500.0,60200.0,53700.0,59400.0,53100.0,58600.0,53800.0,54900.0,52100.0,50600.0,52400.0,53200.0,68900.0,56400.0,49200.0,54300.0,84600.0,57200.0,53900.0,65800.0,54700.0,168500.0,71400.0,54800.0,56900.0,53100.0,46800.0,50200.0,44900.0,48700.0,46200.0,46800.0,44100.0,43500.0,43900.0,46400.0,53800.0,47200.0,41600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[56000.0,58500.0,63200.0,61800.0,62400.0,58900.0,57100.0,60300.0,65400.0,68100.0,69200.0,55400.0,62100.0,64800.0,71200.0,67900.0,72500.0,66300.0,64100.0,68400.0,73200.0,76500.0,77100.0,61300.0,69800.0,72400.0,78900.0,75600.0,77200.0,71800.0,69500.0,74100.0,79600.0,83200.0,81500.0,67300.0,76200.0,78100.0,84500.0,81900.0,83400.0,76800.0,75100.0,79300.0,85700.0,89400.0,87600.0,71200.0,81500.0,82900.0,89400.0,94100.0,92300.0,85600.0,83100.0,86700.0,91800.0,94500.0,92100.0,76300.0,84700.0,85200.0,93100.0,89600.0,88400.0,97800.0,92500.0,94800.0,102300.0,118500.0,109200.0,88700.0,94300.0,91600.0,98400.0,92700.0,93500.0,86900.0,84200.0,88100.0,93600.0,96200.0,94100.0,77800.0,88600.0,87200.0,95100.0,89300.0,90700.0,84100.0,82600.0,87400.0,91900.0,94300.0,92800.0,76400.0,87100.0,86400.0,92800.0,89100.0,88600.0,82300.0,382000.0,124500.0,94800.0,93500.0,90200.0,75800.0,85400.0,84200.0,91600.0,88300.0,89100.0,82700.0,80900.0,85600.0,90400.0,93100.0,89800.0,74500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[25000.0,25500.0,26500.0,25500.0,25000.0,23500.0,22500.0,23000.0,24500.0,25500.0,25500.0,22000.0,24500.0,24500.0,26000.0,24000.0,24500.0,23000.0,22000.0,22500.0,23500.0,24500.0,24500.0,21000.0,23500.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,21000.0,20500.0,21000.0,21500.0,22500.0,23000.0,19500.0,21500.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,18500.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,18500.0,20000.0,19500.0,20500.0,19500.0,19000.0,20500.0,20000.0,19500.0,20000.0,22500.0,21500.0,19000.0,20500.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,19500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19500.0,19500.0,17500.0,19500.0,19000.0,20000.0,18500.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19000.0,17000.0,19000.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,18000.0,95000.0,26000.0,21000.0,21500.0,21500.0,19500.0,21500.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20500.0,21500.0,21000.0,19000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[56000.0,55000.0,57000.0,54000.0,53000.0,51000.0,49000.0,52000.0,53000.0,54000.0,54000.0,47000.0,53000.0,50000.0,54000.0,48000.0,52000.0,49000.0,47000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,50000.0,43000.0,49000.0,45000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,45000.0,50000.0,40000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,36000.0,41000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,34000.0,37000.0,35000.0,37000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,26000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,27000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,44000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[138000.0,132000.0,141000.0,139000.0,136000.0,130000.0,126000.0,127000.0,136000.0,141000.0,134000.0,122000.0,142000.0,138000.0,147000.0,144000.0,520000.0,265000.0,175000.0,150000.0,155000.0,158000.0,150000.0,135000.0,178000.0,160000.0,158000.0,170000.0,155000.0,150000.0,146000.0,148000.0,156000.0,175000.0,158000.0,143000.0,155000.0,150000.0,154000.0,160000.0,158000.0,150000.0,144000.0,145000.0,152000.0,158000.0,150000.0,138000.0,152000.0,148000.0,170000.0,185000.0,165000.0,155000.0,148000.0,150000.0,158000.0,160000.0,152000.0,140000.0,158000.0,152000.0,156000.0,160000.0,162000.0,190000.0,210000.0,185000.0,190000.0,225000.0,185000.0,165000.0,185000.0,195000.0,178000.0,170000.0,165000.0,160000.0,152000.0,154000.0,162000.0,168000.0,160000.0,145000.0,160000.0,156000.0,158000.0,162000.0,158000.0,152000.0,148000.0,150000.0,156000.0,162000.0,156000.0,144000.0,158000.0,154000.0,158000.0,162000.0,160000.0,158000.0,420000.0,200000.0,172000.0,260000.0,185000.0,165000.0,178000.0,172000.0,176000.0,180000.0,176000.0,172000.0,178000.0,180000.0,195000.0,285000.0,230000.0,185000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[19123.0,17210.0,18544.0,17402.0,16877.0,16234.0,15189.0,14802.0,17155.0,17930.0,16912.0,14388.0,17845.0,16410.0,17192.0,16255.0,15930.0,15112.0,14355.0,14177.0,16088.0,16734.0,16102.0,13541.0,16720.0,15244.0,16310.0,15388.0,14912.0,14301.0,13422.0,13155.0,15093.0,15821.0,14945.0,12688.0,15741.0,14195.0,15203.0,14332.0,13921.0,13254.0,12548.0,12389.0,14077.0,14612.0,14055.0,11834.0,16180.0,14855.0,18840.0,17812.0,16720.0,13810.0,12984.0,12833.0,14592.0,15148.0,14471.0,12258.0,16855.0,15238.0,16291.0,15365.0,14958.0,14193.0,13571.0,13148.0,15064.0,23480.0,20135.0,13980.0,15722.0,14318.0,15074.0,14215.0,14088.0,13271.0,12693.0,12276.0,14032.0,14758.0,13942.0,11871.0,15084.0,13825.0,14631.0,13712.0,13458.0,12891.0,12093.0,15462.0,13577.0,14230.0,13441.0,11408.0,16755.0,15392.0,16148.0,15405.0,20940.0,17185.0,54820.0,31845.0,18120.0,15890.0,15112.0,12835.0,16912.0,15271.0,16255.0,15288.0,14973.0,14308.0,13465.0,13290.0,15042.0,15718.0,14986.0,12692.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23300.0,22000.0,21600.0,22000.0,24500.0,25500.0,25200.0,22500.0,29700.0,28100.0,27000.0,27000.0,25700.0,24400.0,23900.0,24400.0,26500.0,28000.0,27300.0,24900.0,32000.0,30200.0,29100.0,28500.0,29000.0,25700.0,25100.0,25700.0,28500.0,29600.0,29400.0,26200.0,34700.0,32900.0,31600.0,30400.0,30500.0,27900.0,27300.0,27900.0,31000.0,32200.0,34500.0,28500.0,39200.0,37100.0,42000.0,39500.0,34500.0,31500.0,30800.0,31500.0,35000.0,36400.0,36000.0,32200.0,43100.0,40800.0,39300.0,37700.0,36600.0,45000.0,48000.0,38000.0,38500.0,46000.0,39700.0,35400.0,46500.0,44000.0,42300.0,40700.0,39400.0,37400.0,36500.0,37400.0,43000.0,43200.0,45500.0,38200.0,49300.0,46600.0,44900.0,43100.0,41800.0,39600.0,38700.0,39600.0,44000.0,45800.0,45300.0,40500.0,56000.0,105000.0,62000.0,48000.0,45100.0,42800.0,41800.0,42800.0,58000.0,56000.0,48900.0,43700.0,85000.0,62000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48500.0,45900.0,44900.0,45900.0,51000.0,58000.0,52500.0,46900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,48000.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,40000.0,43000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0,60000.0,80000.0,75000.0,70000.0,75000.0,65000.0,55000.0,60000.0,57000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,59000.0,61000.0,62000.0,65000.0,67000.0,65000.0,59000.0,63000.0,60000.0,63000.0,62000.0,64000.0,63000.0,65000.0,66000.0,68000.0,70000.0,76000.0,66000.0,70000.0,67000.0,70000.0,69000.0,71000.0,70000.0,200000.0,100000.0,85000.0,88000.0,90000.0,82000.0,85000.0,82000.0,86000.0,84000.0,87000.0,86000.0,88000.0,90000.0,95000.0,105000.0,98000.0,90000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[6800.0,6200.0,7000.0,6700.0,6900.0,6500.0,6400.0,6800.0,7300.0,7200.0,6900.0,6400.0,7200.0,6600.0,7500.0,7200.0,8500.0,8200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7600.0,7900.0,7500.0,6900.0,7900.0,7200.0,8100.0,7800.0,8000.0,7500.0,7400.0,7500.0,8100.0,8400.0,8000.0,7300.0,8600.0,7900.0,9000.0,8600.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8800.0,9300.0,9600.0,9100.0,8400.0,9800.0,8900.0,11200.0,11800.0,10800.0,9900.0,9600.0,9900.0,10700.0,10900.0,10400.0,9500.0,10800.0,9900.0,11500.0,11100.0,11200.0,12200.0,12800.0,12200.0,12800.0,15500.0,14200.0,12800.0,13200.0,12100.0,13600.0,13100.0,13300.0,12400.0,12300.0,12600.0,13500.0,13800.0,13200.0,12100.0,13600.0,14800.0,16000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13300.0,13100.0,13500.0,15200.0,15800.0,14800.0,13600.0,14500.0,13300.0,15000.0,14400.0,14600.0,15200.0,43000.0,22500.0,16200.0,16500.0,15600.0,14300.0,15500.0,14200.0,15800.0,15100.0,15200.0,14400.0,14200.0,14600.0,15800.0,19500.0,18500.0,16500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[6300.0,6000.0,6300.0,6400.0,6100.0,5700.0,5800.0,6000.0,6400.0,6600.0,6300.0,5400.0,7400.0,7000.0,7400.0,7400.0,8400.0,7700.0,7000.0,6700.0,7400.0,7700.0,7400.0,6300.0,9200.0,8400.0,8400.0,8400.0,8000.0,7600.0,7600.0,7700.0,8400.0,8800.0,9200.0,7300.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8600.0,9400.0,11500.0,12300.0,10900.0,9500.0,8100.0,10500.0,10000.0,14200.0,15800.0,13000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,9000.0,14300.0,13000.0,13700.0,13700.0,13000.0,15400.0,14800.0,13600.0,15700.0,21500.0,19800.0,15200.0,17300.0,15000.0,16500.0,17300.0,15000.0,14300.0,14300.0,14300.0,18100.0,20600.0,22100.0,16200.0,16800.0,16000.0,16800.0,20200.0,18400.0,15200.0,15200.0,16700.0,16800.0,19400.0,16800.0,14400.0,32100.0,26100.0,22000.0,20000.0,18500.0,17500.0,120000.0,35000.0,22000.0,20500.0,19500.0,16500.0,18500.0,17000.0,17900.0,26800.0,22100.0,17800.0,18600.0,17000.0,17900.0,20600.0,17900.0,15300.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[38200.0,31100.0,34500.0,33500.0,35500.0,32400.0,38500.0,32100.0,35900.0,34800.0,38500.0,31100.0,39600.0,32200.0,35800.0,34700.0,46900.0,40700.0,35800.0,33300.0,37200.0,36200.0,39900.0,32200.0,47400.0,40800.0,37500.0,36400.0,41600.0,35300.0,40500.0,34900.0,39000.0,37900.0,42600.0,33800.0,70200.0,44200.0,40200.0,39000.0,56400.0,37800.0,44200.0,37400.0,41800.0,40600.0,46400.0,36200.0,45200.0,38700.0,48000.0,41700.0,48300.0,40400.0,43000.0,53000.0,44700.0,43400.0,49300.0,38700.0,47800.0,44000.0,45500.0,44100.0,51900.0,42800.0,59500.0,49300.0,47300.0,46000.0,52900.0,41000.0,50400.0,43200.0,53000.0,46600.0,54400.0,45100.0,48000.0,53600.0,49900.0,48500.0,54400.0,43200.0,53300.0,45700.0,55800.0,49300.0,57300.0,47800.0,58800.0,47200.0,52800.0,59300.0,57300.0,45700.0,95900.0,64200.0,63000.0,60300.0,66700.0,59500.0,82000.0,73900.0,67300.0,70600.0,71700.0,57200.0,89200.0,70600.0,71000.0,68100.0,72900.0,66200.0,74000.0,67500.0,74600.0,82600.0,75900.0,64600.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,35000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,40000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,36000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,37000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,41000.0,43000.0,43000.0,37000.0,42000.0,43000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,44000.0,46000.0,46000.0,40000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,45000.0,50000.0,49000.0,43000.0,47000.0,47000.0,48000.0,45000.0,44000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,43000.0,45000.0,45000.0,38000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,35000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,36000.0,44000.0,39000.0,39000.0,41000.0,41000.0,34000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,37000.0,40000.0,39000.0,33000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[104000.0,93000.0,98000.0,105000.0,108000.0,112000.0,146000.0,128000.0,132000.0,145000.0,138000.0,116000.0,132000.0,118000.0,124000.0,154000.0,142000.0,126000.0,132000.0,125000.0,135000.0,164000.0,150000.0,122000.0,172000.0,146000.0,152000.0,163000.0,160000.0,145000.0,151000.0,145000.0,158000.0,188000.0,170000.0,140000.0,163000.0,150000.0,158000.0,168000.0,194000.0,174000.0,178000.0,172000.0,185000.0,203000.0,190000.0,163000.0,183000.0,173000.0,208000.0,196000.0,215000.0,192000.0,200000.0,193000.0,205000.0,227000.0,210000.0,185000.0,208000.0,196000.0,205000.0,220000.0,210000.0,200000.0,232000.0,278000.0,320000.0,395000.0,345000.0,290000.0,322000.0,294000.0,305000.0,324000.0,304000.0,289000.0,297000.0,286000.0,312000.0,343000.0,318000.0,273000.0,306000.0,283000.0,292000.0,306000.0,288000.0,276000.0,291000.0,279000.0,311000.0,338000.0,312000.0,268000.0,292000.0,275000.0,284000.0,299000.0,288000.0,279000.0,362000.0,327000.0,351000.0,382000.0,354000.0,309000.0,318000.0,297000.0,308000.0,322000.0,309000.0,299000.0,328000.0,316000.0,361000.0,442000.0,383000.0,321000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[8500.0,8200.0,9000.0,9100.0,9300.0,9500.0,9300.0,9000.0,9800.0,10200.0,9300.0,7900.0,8900.0,8600.0,9500.0,9700.0,11200.0,10100.0,9800.0,9700.0,10300.0,11000.0,10000.0,8400.0,9400.0,9200.0,10100.0,10400.0,10800.0,10600.0,10300.0,10200.0,10900.0,11200.0,10400.0,8700.0,9800.0,9500.0,10500.0,10800.0,11100.0,10900.0,10700.0,10600.0,11200.0,11700.0,10800.0,9000.0,10500.0,10200.0,11900.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12100.0,11900.0,12400.0,13000.0,12000.0,10100.0,11800.0,11300.0,13000.0,13700.0,14200.0,19000.0,15500.0,14000.0,14500.0,20500.0,15700.0,12900.0,14500.0,13700.0,15200.0,15500.0,16000.0,15800.0,15100.0,14900.0,15400.0,16400.0,15100.0,12600.0,14200.0,13600.0,15000.0,15600.0,16200.0,15900.0,15400.0,15500.0,20500.0,16500.0,15400.0,12900.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,23000.0,38000.0,27000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22500.0,32000.0,24000.0,19000.0,20500.0,19000.0,21000.0,21500.0,22000.0,21500.0,20800.0,20200.0,21000.0,22000.0,20500.0,17500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4200.0,4000.0,4800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,4200.0,4300.0,4000.0,3600.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4600.0,5100.0,5600.0,5000.0,4600.0,5300.0,4900.0,4900.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,4400.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,4000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4900.0,4900.0,4700.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4700.0,6500.0,6000.0,4800.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,5000.0,5400.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4400.0,4700.0,4300.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,8500.0,5200.0,4300.0,4300.0,4000.0,3700.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3800.0,6200.0,4800.0,3600.0]}},{"title":"Motor vehicle","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Motor vehicle\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[16879,15202,16283,16356,15866,13546,12988,13424,13704,14885,15450,13674,15680,15589,17242,15397,15937,15082,15687,15343,15853,17497,17054,13945,16930,15592,16564,15177,15336,14111,13471,14726,14914,15136,14443,12931,14844,13841,17896,14102,14961,13780,15121,14838,16871,19950,17383,14212,18019,15261,14575,15286,12931,11063,11025,11198,12119,13569,12098,10872,12806,12752,14349,14403,12997,11879,11647,11922,12483,13367,13183,11777,13357,11888,13949,11978,13040,12558,12457,13589,15131,17158,17357,14625,17645,16869,18198,12778,14038,13109,12610,12954,12691,12988,12598,11631,13848,12084,13091,12729,12455,10989,11370,11819,11714,13573,14286,13374,12566,10329,11990,10865,13073,8910,8929,9548,8788,9985,8784,8617],"flat_reference_value":16981.796066219613,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[31000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,30000.0,34000.0,33000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,32000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,31000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,37000.0,39000.0,37000.0,32000.0,36000.0,34000.0,39000.0,36000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,34000.0,37000.0,40000.0,38000.0,33000.0,37000.0,36000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,34000.0,38000.0,36000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[19840.0,18620.0,20450.0,19910.0,20180.0,18740.0,18120.0,18390.0,19560.0,20310.0,19680.0,17850.0,19420.0,17690.0,20140.0,19380.0,19750.0,18210.0,17860.0,18040.0,19120.0,19890.0,19240.0,17430.0,19150.0,17480.0,19870.0,19410.0,20260.0,18530.0,18090.0,18340.0,19280.0,20110.0,19360.0,17590.0,19230.0,17540.0,19940.0,19320.0,19810.0,18150.0,17920.0,18180.0,19050.0,19760.0,18940.0,17310.0,18980.0,17820.0,16450.0,14890.0,15740.0,16620.0,16950.0,17180.0,17940.0,18630.0,17810.0,16720.0,18140.0,16580.0,18790.0,18350.0,18520.0,17240.0,16890.0,17110.0,17860.0,18470.0,17790.0,16380.0,17760.0,16190.0,18340.0,17820.0,18050.0,16780.0,16410.0,16650.0,17420.0,17980.0,17310.0,15890.0,17250.0,15710.0,17680.0,17040.0,17190.0,15980.0,15640.0,15870.0,16590.0,17120.0,16480.0,15140.0,16420.0,15360.0,16790.0,16280.0,16410.0,15190.0,14920.0,15110.0,15780.0,16240.0,15630.0,14450.0,15680.0,14390.0,16850.0,16520.0,15940.0,14760.0,14480.0,14650.0,15290.0,15740.0,15120.0,13980.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[31400.0,32100.0,35200.0,33900.0,32800.0,27200.0,26100.0,27800.0,31900.0,34600.0,34100.0,26900.0,30200.0,30800.0,34100.0,32500.0,31400.0,25800.0,24900.0,26300.0,30400.0,33200.0,32700.0,25400.0,28900.0,29300.0,32600.0,31100.0,29900.0,24700.0,23600.0,25100.0,28800.0,31500.0,30900.0,24200.0,27400.0,27800.0,30800.0,29400.0,28300.0,23400.0,22300.0,23800.0,27200.0,29700.0,29100.0,22900.0,26200.0,26800.0,24100.0,21800.0,23100.0,21500.0,20800.0,22400.0,25600.0,27900.0,27200.0,21600.0,24800.0,25100.0,27900.0,26600.0,25500.0,21100.0,20200.0,21600.0,24700.0,26900.0,26300.0,20700.0,23500.0,23900.0,26400.0,25200.0,24100.0,19900.0,19100.0,20400.0,23300.0,25400.0,24800.0,19600.0,22200.0,22500.0,24900.0,23800.0,22800.0,18800.0,18000.0,19300.0,22000.0,24100.0,23500.0,18400.0,20900.0,21300.0,23600.0,22500.0,21600.0,17800.0,17100.0,18300.0,20800.0,22700.0,22200.0,17400.0,19700.0,20100.0,22200.0,21200.0,20300.0,16800.0,16100.0,17300.0,19600.0,21500.0,20900.0,16400.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[16200.0,16900.0,17500.0,16800.0,16500.0,14900.0,14300.0,14600.0,16100.0,17000.0,17100.0,14200.0,15300.0,15800.0,16400.0,15500.0,15400.0,13900.0,13300.0,13600.0,15000.0,15800.0,15900.0,13200.0,14300.0,14700.0,15300.0,14500.0,14300.0,12900.0,12400.0,12700.0,14000.0,14800.0,14800.0,12300.0,13300.0,13700.0,14200.0,13400.0,13300.0,12000.0,11500.0,11800.0,13000.0,13700.0,13700.0,11400.0,12300.0,12600.0,12200.0,10400.0,10600.0,10400.0,10100.0,10300.0,11300.0,11900.0,12000.0,10100.0,11200.0,11500.0,12000.0,11400.0,11200.0,10100.0,9700.0,9900.0,11000.0,11500.0,11600.0,9700.0,10300.0,10500.0,11000.0,10300.0,10200.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10500.0,8800.0,9700.0,10000.0,10400.0,9800.0,9700.0,8700.0,8400.0,8600.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,8400.0,9200.0,9400.0,9800.0,9300.0,9100.0,8200.0,7900.0,8100.0,8900.0,9400.0,9400.0,7900.0,8600.0,8800.0,9200.0,8700.0,8500.0,7700.0,7400.0,7600.0,8300.0,8800.0,8800.0,7400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,45000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,41000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,41000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,36000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,18500.0,18500.0,19000.0,19500.0,20000.0,20000.0,18000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18500.0,18500.0,17000.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,16500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,16500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,15000.0,16500.0,15500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,13500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[41000.0,44000.0,45500.0,41000.0,39000.0,31000.0,29500.0,35000.0,43000.0,45000.0,41000.0,33000.0,42000.0,45000.0,46500.0,43000.0,40000.0,33000.0,31000.0,36000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43500.0,33500.0,43000.0,46000.0,47500.0,44000.0,41000.0,34000.0,32000.0,37000.0,45000.0,47000.0,44000.0,34000.0,42500.0,45500.0,47000.0,43500.0,40500.0,33500.0,31500.0,36500.0,44500.0,46500.0,43500.0,33500.0,42000.0,45000.0,60000.0,64000.0,50000.0,37000.0,33000.0,39000.0,50000.0,55000.0,51000.0,34000.0,49500.0,53000.0,54000.0,49500.0,43000.0,34500.0,32500.0,36500.0,45000.0,47000.0,44000.0,33500.0,40000.0,43000.0,44500.0,42000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,32000.0,39000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,37000.0,31000.0,29500.0,33000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,31000.0,38500.0,41500.0,42500.0,40500.0,36500.0,31000.0,29000.0,33000.0,40500.0,42500.0,40500.0,31000.0,35500.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,33500.0,28000.0,26500.0,30000.0,37000.0,38500.0,36500.0,28000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[35840.0,33915.0,36120.0,33105.0,31870.0,28440.0,27655.0,27980.0,34010.0,36350.0,33220.0,28310.0,32840.0,32110.0,33980.0,31050.0,30230.0,26580.0,25890.0,26120.0,31940.0,33120.0,31870.0,26450.0,30560.0,29880.0,31720.0,28960.0,28210.0,24830.0,24150.0,24400.0,29830.0,31890.0,29020.0,24710.0,29480.0,28890.0,30510.0,27980.0,27150.0,23920.0,23280.0,23510.0,28760.0,30710.0,28100.0,23840.0,31200.0,30980.0,41230.0,41580.0,35120.0,28940.0,25010.0,25980.0,31020.0,33010.0,30280.0,25560.0,31120.0,29950.0,31840.0,29110.0,27890.0,24960.0,23520.0,24930.0,29780.0,31650.0,29180.0,24680.0,27240.0,26680.0,28350.0,25910.0,25180.0,22140.0,21560.0,21780.0,26620.0,28410.0,25980.0,22050.0,25090.0,24510.0,26080.0,23820.0,23140.0,20380.0,19820.0,20010.0,24560.0,26120.0,23900.0,20240.0,22930.0,22410.0,23860.0,21780.0,21120.0,18610.0,18120.0,18260.0,22410.0,23890.0,21830.0,18470.0,21810.0,21340.0,22750.0,20720.0,20130.0,17720.0,17260.0,17410.0,21380.0,22710.0,20820.0,17540.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[244000.0,242000.0,235000.0,228000.0,219000.0,205000.0,198000.0,212000.0,244000.0,255000.0,248000.0,221000.0,252000.0,250000.0,243000.0,236000.0,226000.0,212000.0,205000.0,219000.0,252000.0,264000.0,257000.0,228000.0,260000.0,257000.0,250000.0,243000.0,233000.0,218000.0,211000.0,225000.0,260000.0,272000.0,265000.0,235000.0,267000.0,265000.0,257000.0,249000.0,239000.0,224000.0,217000.0,232000.0,267000.0,280000.0,272000.0,242000.0,313000.0,310000.0,331000.0,336000.0,314000.0,289000.0,274000.0,293000.0,338000.0,347000.0,338000.0,300000.0,334000.0,331000.0,321000.0,312000.0,299000.0,280000.0,271000.0,290000.0,334000.0,350000.0,340000.0,302000.0,323000.0,320000.0,311000.0,302000.0,290000.0,271000.0,262000.0,281000.0,323000.0,339000.0,329000.0,293000.0,310000.0,307000.0,298000.0,289000.0,277000.0,260000.0,251000.0,269000.0,310000.0,324000.0,315000.0,280000.0,302000.0,299000.0,291000.0,282000.0,271000.0,254000.0,240000.0,257000.0,296000.0,304000.0,296000.0,263000.0,278000.0,274000.0,265000.0,255000.0,244000.0,227000.0,219000.0,233000.0,267000.0,278000.0,269000.0,238000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[28620.0,27810.0,28080.0,27270.0,26460.0,25650.0,25110.0,25650.0,28080.0,27810.0,27000.0,26190.0,29680.0,28840.0,29120.0,28280.0,27440.0,26600.0,26040.0,26600.0,29120.0,28840.0,28000.0,27160.0,30952.0,30076.0,30368.0,29492.0,28616.0,27740.0,27156.0,27740.0,30368.0,30076.0,29200.0,28324.0,32012.0,31106.0,31408.0,30502.0,29596.0,28690.0,28086.0,28690.0,31408.0,31106.0,30200.0,29294.0,33390.0,32445.0,32760.0,33315.0,32070.0,30725.0,29295.0,29925.0,32760.0,32445.0,31500.0,30555.0,34450.0,33475.0,33800.0,32825.0,31850.0,30875.0,30225.0,30875.0,33800.0,34475.0,32500.0,31525.0,33072.0,32136.0,32448.0,31512.0,30576.0,29640.0,29016.0,29640.0,32448.0,32136.0,31200.0,30264.0,31270.0,30385.0,30680.0,29795.0,28910.0,28025.0,27435.0,28025.0,31500.0,30385.0,29500.0,28615.0,29468.0,28634.0,28912.0,28078.0,27244.0,26410.0,25854.0,26410.0,28912.0,28634.0,27800.0,26966.0,27878.0,27089.0,27352.0,26563.0,25774.0,24985.0,24459.0,24985.0,27352.0,27089.0,26300.0,25511.0],"meta/muse-ember":[98100.0,92700.0,99000.0,95400.0,94500.0,92070.0,80100.0,82800.0,94500.0,104976.0,95472.0,79200.0,106558.0,96820.0,107536.0,99640.0,94000.0,87420.0,83660.0,86480.0,106596.0,107611.0,95880.0,82720.0,106820.0,100940.0,112112.0,103880.0,98000.0,91140.0,87220.0,90160.0,102900.0,113249.0,104958.0,86240.0,114515.0,105060.0,116688.0,108120.0,102000.0,94860.0,90780.0,93840.0,114597.0,121176.0,104040.0,89760.0,117720.0,120139.0,172260.0,143100.0,116640.0,103453.0,96120.0,99360.0,113400.0,120139.0,121176.0,109296.0,146670.0,124259.0,133980.0,122960.0,126440.0,107880.0,103240.0,106720.0,133980.0,132797.0,118320.0,102080.0,134070.0,139359.0,152889.0,130380.0,123000.0,128117.0,109470.0,124476.0,129150.0,144796.0,131733.0,108240.0,144828.0,132870.0,141900.0,136740.0,129000.0,119970.0,114810.0,118680.0,148995.0,153252.0,131580.0,113520.0,150462.0,144984.0,147400.0,142040.0,134000.0,124620.0,119260.0,123280.0,140700.0,156298.0,158549.0,124995.0,171958.0,140080.0,164560.0,172992.0,146880.0,132804.0,121040.0,125120.0,152796.0,157162.0,138720.0,119680.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[337000.0,345000.0,364000.0,353000.0,341000.0,332000.0,302000.0,295000.0,357000.0,349000.0,332000.0,312000.0,345000.0,355000.0,380000.0,365000.0,351000.0,363000.0,329000.0,310000.0,375000.0,365000.0,348000.0,327000.0,362000.0,373000.0,440000.0,394000.0,375000.0,366000.0,336000.0,329000.0,396000.0,387000.0,368000.0,344000.0,382000.0,392000.0,415000.0,403000.0,388000.0,380000.0,349000.0,342000.0,419000.0,415000.0,389000.0,361000.0,401000.0,428000.0,557000.0,565000.0,479000.0,426000.0,384000.0,375000.0,453000.0,445000.0,425000.0,406000.0,416000.0,438000.0,471000.0,453000.0,434000.0,424000.0,388000.0,380000.0,454000.0,446000.0,424000.0,398000.0,396000.0,413000.0,467000.0,445000.0,419000.0,406000.0,370000.0,361000.0,432000.0,424000.0,403000.0,378000.0,384000.0,396000.0,419000.0,407000.0,392000.0,389000.0,353000.0,353000.0,450000.0,442000.0,403000.0,370000.0,370000.0,381000.0,406000.0,397000.0,379000.0,368000.0,339000.0,333000.0,404000.0,396000.0,382000.0,358000.0,359000.0,365000.0,395000.0,421000.0,392000.0,369000.0,331000.0,329000.0,403000.0,386000.0,363000.0,337000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1701000.0,1523000.0,1648000.0,1637000.0,1652000.0,1539000.0,1393000.0,1571000.0,1782000.0,1795000.0,1701000.0,1571000.0,1785000.0,1598000.0,1666000.0,1717000.0,1734000.0,1615000.0,1462000.0,1649000.0,1870000.0,1890000.0,1785000.0,1649000.0,1869000.0,1673000.0,1744000.0,1798000.0,1816000.0,1691000.0,1531000.0,1727000.0,1958000.0,1958000.0,1869000.0,1727000.0,1953000.0,1748000.0,1823000.0,1879000.0,1897000.0,1767000.0,1600000.0,1804000.0,2046000.0,2065000.0,1953000.0,1804000.0,2205000.0,1994000.0,2138000.0,2281000.0,2292000.0,2095000.0,1856000.0,2067000.0,2330000.0,2320000.0,2205000.0,2037000.0,2153000.0,1927000.0,2009000.0,2101000.0,2141000.0,1998000.0,1803000.0,2029000.0,2325000.0,2335000.0,2153000.0,1989000.0,2150000.0,1930000.0,2060000.0,2100000.0,2180000.0,2050000.0,1840000.0,2010000.0,2270000.0,2280000.0,2150000.0,1990000.0,2090000.0,1870000.0,1950000.0,2010000.0,2030000.0,1890000.0,1710000.0,1930000.0,2190000.0,2180000.0,2090000.0,1930000.0,2140000.0,1920000.0,2000000.0,2060000.0,2080000.0,1940000.0,1760000.0,1980000.0,2240000.0,2250000.0,2140000.0,1980000.0,2230000.0,2000000.0,2080000.0,2150000.0,2170000.0,2020000.0,1830000.0,2060000.0,2340000.0,2350000.0,2230000.0,2040000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[6200.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6500.0,5200.0,4700.0,5000.0,6400.0,6700.0,6600.0,5400.0,6400.0,6600.0,6800.0,6300.0,6500.0,5100.0,4600.0,5000.0,6300.0,6600.0,6500.0,5300.0,6300.0,6500.0,6600.0,6200.0,6300.0,5000.0,4500.0,4900.0,6100.0,6400.0,6300.0,5100.0,6100.0,6300.0,6400.0,6000.0,6100.0,4800.0,4400.0,4800.0,5900.0,6200.0,6100.0,4900.0,5900.0,6000.0,5400.0,4800.0,4900.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,5500.0,5800.0,5700.0,4800.0,5600.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,5600.0,4600.0,4200.0,4500.0,5500.0,5800.0,5700.0,4600.0,5500.0,5700.0,5800.0,5500.0,5500.0,4400.0,4000.0,4400.0,5300.0,5600.0,5500.0,4400.0,5300.0,5500.0,5600.0,5300.0,5300.0,4200.0,3900.0,4200.0,5100.0,5400.0,5300.0,4200.0,5100.0,5300.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4000.0,3700.0,4000.0,4900.0,5200.0,5100.0,4000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5100.0,4900.0,4800.0,3800.0,3500.0,3800.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,3900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[34000.0,31000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23000.0,25000.0,29000.0,34000.0,37000.0,33000.0,26000.0,35000.0,32000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,23000.0,26000.0,30000.0,35000.0,38000.0,34000.0,27000.0,37000.0,33000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,24000.0,27000.0,31000.0,37000.0,39000.0,35000.0,28000.0,39000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,33000.0,39000.0,42000.0,38000.0,30000.0,38000.0,33000.0,41000.0,34000.0,28000.0,25000.0,27000.0,33000.0,41000.0,43000.0,39000.0,31000.0,43000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,31000.0,36000.0,43000.0,48000.0,44000.0,33000.0,49000.0,46000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,32000.0,35000.0,41000.0,49000.0,52000.0,47000.0,36000.0,52000.0,46000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,34000.0,37000.0,43000.0,51000.0,56000.0,51000.0,40000.0,55000.0,50000.0,44000.0,40000.0,39000.0,36000.0,39000.0,45000.0,53000.0,58000.0,54000.0,42000.0,49000.0,44000.0,39000.0,36000.0,36000.0,33000.0,37000.0,42000.0,48000.0,51000.0,47000.0,39000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[18200.0,17100.0,18400.0,17800.0,17600.0,16900.0,16100.0,16400.0,17300.0,17900.0,17000.0,15800.0,18000.0,16800.0,18100.0,17500.0,17200.0,16600.0,15800.0,16100.0,17000.0,17500.0,16600.0,15400.0,17600.0,16500.0,17700.0,17100.0,16900.0,16200.0,15500.0,15700.0,16600.0,17100.0,16200.0,15100.0,17200.0,16000.0,17300.0,16700.0,16500.0,15800.0,15100.0,15300.0,16200.0,16700.0,15800.0,14700.0,16900.0,15800.0,17100.0,17600.0,17300.0,16500.0,15800.0,16000.0,16800.0,17300.0,16500.0,15300.0,16700.0,15600.0,16900.0,16300.0,16100.0,15400.0,14700.0,14900.0,15800.0,16300.0,15500.0,14400.0,16300.0,15200.0,16500.0,15900.0,15700.0,15000.0,14300.0,14500.0,15400.0,15900.0,15100.0,14000.0,15800.0,14800.0,16000.0,15400.0,15200.0,14500.0,13800.0,14000.0,14900.0,15400.0,14600.0,13600.0,15400.0,14400.0,15600.0,15000.0,14800.0,14100.0,13400.0,13600.0,14500.0,15000.0,14200.0,13200.0,15000.0,14000.0,15200.0,14600.0,14400.0,13700.0,13000.0,13200.0,14100.0,14600.0,13800.0,12800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[125000.0,131250.0,135000.0,127500.0,125000.0,115000.0,106250.0,112500.0,137500.0,140000.0,131250.0,110000.0,120000.0,126000.0,129600.0,122400.0,120000.0,110400.0,102000.0,108000.0,132000.0,134400.0,126000.0,105600.0,115000.0,120750.0,124200.0,117300.0,115000.0,105800.0,97750.0,103500.0,126500.0,128800.0,120750.0,101200.0,110000.0,115500.0,118800.0,112200.0,110000.0,101200.0,93500.0,99000.0,121000.0,123200.0,115500.0,96800.0,118000.0,123900.0,135000.0,127000.0,118000.0,108560.0,100300.0,106200.0,129800.0,132160.0,123900.0,103840.0,105000.0,110250.0,113400.0,107100.0,105000.0,96600.0,89250.0,94500.0,115500.0,117600.0,110250.0,92400.0,98000.0,102900.0,105840.0,99960.0,98000.0,90160.0,83300.0,88200.0,107800.0,109760.0,102900.0,86240.0,92000.0,96600.0,99360.0,93840.0,92000.0,84640.0,78200.0,82800.0,101200.0,103040.0,96600.0,80960.0,82000.0,86100.0,88560.0,83640.0,82000.0,75440.0,69700.0,73800.0,90200.0,91840.0,86100.0,72160.0,72000.0,75600.0,77760.0,73440.0,72000.0,66240.0,61200.0,64800.0,79200.0,80640.0,75600.0,63360.0]}},{"title":"Sanjeev Bikhchandani","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Sanjeev Bikhchandani\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[2373,2298,2108,2029,2128,2187,2633,2952,2535,2160,2541,2271,3103,2441,2553,2381,2219,2151,2529,2321,2429,2484,3059,2503,3016,2803,2983,2460,2627,2719,3170,2890,2720,7414,2637,2998,2850,2228,2670,2892,2458,2733,3522,2979,3041,3122,3561,2905,5884,3671,3058,3297,3661,3971,3753,3912,4759,7823,8180,11798,5624,3834,7944,5140,5015,4672,14482,7535,6800,4542,8494,7962,16472,16153,10926,12284,10646,9741,10577,14138,9305,7475,6100,4314,10855,6342,5827,5729,5591,6715,4974,6814,5334,3472,3804,3969,5914,8271,7913,5354,5186,3826,6899,8261,5704,5389,6517,4455,15751,11244,5047,5581,6989,8788,4527,4794,4591,7265,5570,3909],"flat_reference_value":17078.034031480896,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[1100.0,950.0,1150.0,1050.0,1200.0,1100.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1250.0,1400.0,1200.0,1450.0,1300.0,1500.0,1400.0,1600.0,1500.0,1650.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,1600.0,1950.0,1800.0,2050.0,1900.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2350.0,2550.0,2200.0,2600.0,2400.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3400.0,2900.0,17000.0,8000.0,4800.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4800.0,4300.0,5000.0,4700.0,5200.0,4900.0,5300.0,6500.0,22000.0,11000.0,7200.0,7500.0,12000.0,6800.0,7500.0,6500.0,6800.0,6200.0,6400.0,6100.0,6500.0,6600.0,6700.0,6200.0,6800.0,5900.0,6700.0,6100.0,6500.0,6000.0,6300.0,6000.0,6400.0,6600.0,6500.0,6100.0,6600.0,5800.0,6800.0,6200.0,6600.0,6100.0,6500.0,6200.0,6800.0,7000.0,6900.0,6500.0,7100.0,6200.0,7200.0,6600.0,7000.0,6500.0,6800.0,6500.0,7100.0,7300.0,7200.0,6800.0,7400.0,6500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,6600.0,6500.0,7300.0,7600.0,7800.0,7100.0,7400.0,6700.0,7500.0,7200.0,7600.0,7300.0,7000.0,6900.0,7700.0,8100.0,8300.0,7600.0,7900.0,7200.0,8100.0,7700.0,8200.0,7900.0,7600.0,7500.0,8400.0,8800.0,8600.0,8200.0,8000.0,7600.0,8500.0,8200.0,8700.0,8400.0,8100.0,8000.0,8900.0,9200.0,9400.0,8600.0,8800.0,8300.0,34500.0,14200.0,9400.0,10200.0,10800.0,10500.0,11200.0,11600.0,11400.0,10900.0,10600.0,11200.0,12400.0,11900.0,13100.0,22500.0,16800.0,19500.0,135000.0,48000.0,26500.0,24000.0,78000.0,29500.0,31000.0,26800.0,23500.0,20400.0,19200.0,17800.0,18500.0,19100.0,18400.0,16900.0,17500.0,16400.0,17800.0,16500.0,17200.0,16100.0,15800.0,15500.0,17400.0,18200.0,17600.0,16800.0,16200.0,15900.0,17100.0,16400.0,34200.0,18900.0,16800.0,16100.0,17300.0,17900.0,16700.0,15800.0,15400.0,14900.0,15800.0,14700.0,15200.0,14500.0,14100.0,13800.0,14900.0,15300.0,14600.0,13900.0,13600.0,13200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2100.0,1950.0,2200.0,2050.0,1900.0,1850.0,2150.0,2300.0,2400.0,2100.0,2050.0,2250.0,2400.0,2350.0,2500.0,2200.0,2150.0,2300.0,2450.0,2600.0,2550.0,2400.0,2700.0,2650.0,2800.0,2600.0,2900.0,2750.0,2500.0,2650.0,2850.0,3100.0,3050.0,2900.0,3150.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3050.0,2950.0,3100.0,3300.0,3600.0,3450.0,3300.0,3700.0,3500.0,19200.0,7800.0,4400.0,4100.0,4300.0,4500.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,5300.0,4900.0,5500.0,5200.0,5800.0,5400.0,6100.0,8200.0,33500.0,12800.0,8400.0,8900.0,14200.0,8500.0,8100.0,7600.0,7900.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,7100.0,7400.0,6900.0,6400.0,7200.0,6800.0,7500.0,7100.0,7300.0,6900.0,7800.0,9200.0,8100.0,7600.0,7400.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,7600.0,7300.0,7100.0,6700.0,6900.0,7200.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6900.0,6700.0,7100.0,6800.0,6900.0,6500.0,6600.0,6700.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6400.0,6600.0,6500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,4700.0,5200.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,5300.0,5500.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,4900.0,5500.0,5600.0,5700.0,5500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5600.0,5800.0,5700.0,5600.0,5700.0,5300.0,5900.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,5700.0,6000.0,6200.0,6100.0,6000.0,6100.0,5800.0,19000.0,9000.0,7200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7000.0,6900.0,7000.0,6700.0,7300.0,7400.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,7500.0,14000.0,10500.0,8500.0,8200.0,9800.0,8000.0,8600.0,8800.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,7900.0,8100.0,7900.0,7800.0,7700.0,7300.0,8000.0,7900.0,7800.0,7600.0,7500.0,7300.0,7400.0,7600.0,7500.0,7400.0,7300.0,7000.0,7500.0,7400.0,7500.0,7200.0,7100.0,7000.0,7200.0,7400.0,7300.0,7200.0,7100.0,6800.0,7300.0,7200.0,7300.0,7000.0,6900.0,6800.0,7000.0,7100.0,7000.0,6900.0,6800.0,6500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[5800.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,5900.0,6000.0,6300.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,6600.0,6300.0,6700.0,6500.0,6800.0,7000.0,7400.0,7500.0,7300.0,7000.0,7200.0,7000.0,7600.0,7300.0,7700.0,7600.0,8000.0,8200.0,8600.0,8800.0,8600.0,8300.0,8400.0,8200.0,9000.0,8700.0,9200.0,9300.0,9800.0,10000.0,10500.0,10800.0,10600.0,10400.0,10800.0,10800.0,21000.0,14000.0,12500.0,14000.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,56000.0,34000.0,25000.0,24000.0,30000.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18500.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,3900.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4400.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,5100.0,5400.0,5300.0,5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,6200.0,5800.0,5700.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,6100.0,6400.0,6200.0,6600.0,6300.0,6500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6700.0,7000.0,6800.0,6900.0,7200.0,7400.0,7200.0,18000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8200.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,8600.0,8400.0,8800.0,9000.0,8800.0,9200.0,11000.0,12000.0,22000.0,45000.0,26000.0,14000.0,12000.0,18000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,12000.0,10000.0,9800.0,14000.0,10500.0,12500.0,9800.0,9500.0,11500.0,9800.0,9000.0,8600.0,8800.0,9200.0,8800.0,8500.0,8900.0,8700.0,8600.0,9000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,15000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13500.0,12000.0,16000.0,15000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,15000.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1023.0,785.0,962.0,884.0,841.0,832.0,915.0,938.0,921.0,893.0,869.0,792.0,1184.0,905.0,1118.0,1037.0,1012.0,951.0,1068.0,1095.0,1080.0,1042.0,1009.0,923.0,1392.0,1087.0,1330.0,1241.0,1198.0,1136.0,1265.0,1301.0,1288.0,1257.0,1175.0,1102.0,1618.0,1260.0,1545.0,1432.0,1390.0,1321.0,1468.0,1507.0,1490.0,1455.0,1362.0,1284.0,8420.0,1438.0,1755.0,1628.0,1582.0,1501.0,1673.0,1712.0,1700.0,1658.0,1550.0,1462.0,2180.0,1695.0,2072.0,1934.0,1870.0,1781.0,11850.0,5820.0,2045.0,1962.0,6480.0,1738.0,2610.0,2042.0,2495.0,2331.0,2250.0,2148.0,2375.0,2442.0,2428.0,2360.0,2215.0,2090.0,2832.0,2220.0,2701.0,2534.0,2440.0,2330.0,2578.0,2645.0,2630.0,2562.0,2405.0,2271.0,3055.0,2398.0,2912.0,2733.0,2635.0,2514.0,2778.0,2856.0,2841.0,2762.0,2594.0,2450.0,3278.0,2572.0,3124.0,2935.0,2826.0,2698.0,2975.0,3062.0,3045.0,2961.0,2784.0,2628.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[620.0,580.0,640.0,600.0,590.0,660.0,720.0,690.0,700.0,750.0,730.0,680.0,780.0,720.0,800.0,760.0,740.0,820.0,900.0,860.0,850.0,900.0,880.0,820.0,950.0,880.0,980.0,930.0,900.0,1020.0,1120.0,1060.0,1050.0,1100.0,1080.0,990.0,1180.0,1080.0,1200.0,1140.0,1120.0,1240.0,1360.0,1280.0,1260.0,1320.0,1300.0,1180.0,1380.0,1300.0,1900.0,1650.0,1450.0,1500.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1580.0,1620.0,1480.0,1700.0,1650.0,9000.0,3200.0,1900.0,1850.0,24000.0,5200.0,2800.0,2600.0,6500.0,3200.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,2150.0,2350.0,2250.0,2150.0,2300.0,2250.0,2050.0,2500.0,2300.0,2450.0,2350.0,2250.0,2500.0,2750.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,2650.0,2400.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3900.0,12000.0,5200.0,4200.0,4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4500.0,4800.0,6800.0,5000.0,5400.0,4800.0,4300.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[120.0,130.0,140.0,150.0,160.0,150.0,140.0,150.0,160.0,170.0,180.0,190.0,170.0,180.0,190.0,200.0,210.0,200.0,190.0,200.0,210.0,220.0,230.0,240.0,210.0,220.0,230.0,240.0,250.0,240.0,230.0,240.0,250.0,260.0,270.0,280.0,250.0,260.0,270.0,280.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,280.0,290.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,2500.0,1200.0,650.0,550.0,500.0,480.0,520.0,560.0,520.0,500.0,540.0,600.0,650.0,700.0,750.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,8000.0,1500.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1300.0,2200.0,1800.0,1500.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1150.0,1250.0,1600.0,1500.0,1300.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,6000.0,5000.0,3500.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2800.0,25000.0,20000.0,12000.0,6000.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1530.0,1080.0,1000.0,950.0,1020.0,990.0,1050.0,1030.0,1100.0,1120.0,1690.0,1330.0,1320.0,1270.0,1190.0,1120.0,1210.0,1180.0,1240.0,1220.0,1310.0,1390.0,1260.0,1130.0,1520.0,1470.0,1380.0,1310.0,1400.0,1370.0,1430.0,1490.0,1440.0,1590.0,1460.0,1320.0,1740.0,1680.0,1560.0,1490.0,1610.0,1550.0,1640.0,1610.0,1700.0,1790.0,1670.0,1490.0,2050.0,1980.0,2840.0,3590.0,2900.0,2380.0,1960.0,2120.0,2030.0,2140.0,2080.0,1780.0,2450.0,2230.0,2080.0,2150.0,2220.0,2170.0,2090.0,2280.0,2260.0,2420.0,3890.0,2590.0,3840.0,2470.0,2320.0,2330.0,2370.0,2290.0,2420.0,2610.0,2400.0,2680.0,4080.0,2230.0,2830.0,4210.0,3400.0,2560.0,2620.0,2530.0,2680.0,4460.0,2780.0,2920.0,2730.0,2460.0,2980.0,4450.0,2700.0,2710.0,2750.0,2820.0,2740.0,2930.0,2810.0,4230.0,2880.0,2600.0,3090.0,2980.0,2800.0,2800.0,2850.0,2890.0,2930.0,3030.0,2900.0,3200.0,2990.0,2690.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[320.0,300.0,340.0,360.0,350.0,380.0,410.0,430.0,460.0,480.0,520.0,470.0,560.0,540.0,590.0,610.0,630.0,660.0,690.0,720.0,760.0,800.0,840.0,760.0,880.0,860.0,920.0,950.0,980.0,1020.0,1080.0,1120.0,1180.0,1240.0,1320.0,1180.0,1400.0,1360.0,1500.0,1560.0,1620.0,1700.0,1780.0,1850.0,1950.0,2050.0,2200.0,1950.0,2400.0,2300.0,2800.0,3200.0,3000.0,3400.0,3800.0,4200.0,4600.0,5200.0,5800.0,5200.0,6500.0,6200.0,7500.0,8200.0,9000.0,12000.0,65000.0,22000.0,16000.0,13500.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,18000.0,12500.0,11500.0,13000.0,16000.0,11000.0,14000.0,13500.0,15000.0,14500.0,16000.0,17000.0,19000.0,18000.0,16500.0,17500.0,19000.0,15000.0,20000.0,19000.0,22000.0,21000.0,24000.0,23000.0,26000.0,25000.0,28000.0,30000.0,34000.0,26000.0,32000.0,30000.0,45000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,55000.0,48000.0,38000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[560.0,510.0,540.0,590.0,620.0,520.0,450.0,480.0,980.0,610.0,820.0,540.0,590.0,540.0,580.0,710.0,660.0,570.0,510.0,930.0,620.0,680.0,760.0,570.0,650.0,720.0,630.0,1040.0,770.0,650.0,580.0,710.0,920.0,740.0,1280.0,660.0,710.0,660.0,700.0,820.0,780.0,650.0,590.0,660.0,720.0,780.0,2240.0,960.0,760.0,700.0,1390.0,1580.0,1220.0,880.0,790.0,830.0,930.0,1030.0,1160.0,900.0,990.0,830.0,900.0,1010.0,950.0,810.0,740.0,800.0,880.0,1010.0,1100.0,1240.0,1050.0,1200.0,1430.0,1290.0,1090.0,990.0,870.0,920.0,990.0,1230.0,1140.0,1010.0,920.0,860.0,950.0,1050.0,970.0,840.0,760.0,810.0,900.0,1020.0,1100.0,880.0,970.0,900.0,990.0,1100.0,1020.0,880.0,790.0,840.0,920.0,1060.0,1180.0,930.0,1030.0,950.0,1020.0,1130.0,1050.0,900.0,810.0,850.0,940.0,1090.0,1210.0,960.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5200.0,4800.0,5400.0,5300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,5100.0,5700.0,5600.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,5300.0,5500.0,5600.0,5800.0,5900.0,5800.0,5400.0,6000.0,5900.0,6100.0,6000.0,5900.0,5600.0,5900.0,6000.0,6200.0,6300.0,6200.0,5800.0,6400.0,6500.0,7200.0,7800.0,7400.0,7000.0,7300.0,7400.0,7600.0,7800.0,7800.0,7500.0,8200.0,8400.0,8600.0,8800.0,8500.0,8700.0,10500.0,9800.0,9200.0,9000.0,9300.0,9800.0,10200.0,9800.0,9500.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,8700.0,8800.0,8900.0,8800.0,9000.0,8500.0,8800.0,8600.0,8500.0,8300.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,8200.0,8300.0,8400.0,8300.0,7900.0,8300.0,8200.0,8100.0,8000.0,7900.0,7700.0,7800.0,7900.0,8000.0,8100.0,8000.0,7600.0,8000.0,7900.0,7800.0,7700.0,7600.0,7400.0,7500.0,7600.0,7700.0,7800.0,7700.0,7300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[58.0,42.0,61.0,47.0,40.0,38.0,45.0,51.0,46.0,39.0,44.0,52.0,66.0,46.0,64.0,49.0,43.0,41.0,48.0,54.0,49.0,43.0,47.0,55.0,72.0,51.0,69.0,54.0,47.0,45.0,52.0,58.0,85.0,48.0,50.0,59.0,80.0,57.0,74.0,59.0,52.0,50.0,57.0,63.0,58.0,51.0,54.0,62.0,84.0,61.0,79.0,112.0,98.0,69.0,77.0,83.0,76.0,68.0,71.0,79.0,92.0,118.0,86.0,78.0,142.0,188.0,316.0,246.0,154.0,96.0,88.0,102.0,98.0,76.0,88.0,72.0,66.0,62.0,128.0,84.0,77.0,69.0,73.0,81.0,92.0,72.0,86.0,81.0,69.0,65.0,77.0,88.0,96.0,72.0,76.0,84.0,98.0,79.0,94.0,88.0,136.0,151.0,118.0,92.0,86.0,80.0,91.0,97.0,112.0,94.0,106.0,92.0,84.0,88.0,96.0,102.0,91.0,86.0,94.0,108.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[310.0,290.0,320.0,305.0,335.0,315.0,350.0,340.0,325.0,360.0,345.0,330.0,390.0,360.0,380.0,355.0,405.0,370.0,410.0,390.0,375.0,430.0,400.0,385.0,450.0,420.0,445.0,410.0,470.0,440.0,485.0,460.0,450.0,510.0,475.0,455.0,540.0,500.0,525.0,480.0,565.0,525.0,590.0,550.0,535.0,610.0,575.0,560.0,2450.0,1420.0,1050.0,820.0,900.0,850.0,920.0,875.0,830.0,970.0,910.0,880.0,940.0,870.0,910.0,890.0,960.0,1020.0,2650.0,1570.0,1110.0,1040.0,990.0,950.0,1010.0,930.0,980.0,1080.0,970.0,940.0,1030.0,990.0,950.0,1090.0,1020.0,980.0,1070.0,2240.0,1480.0,1190.0,1080.0,1030.0,1120.0,1060.0,1020.0,1190.0,1580.0,1110.0,1260.0,1390.0,1210.0,1130.0,1200.0,1160.0,1280.0,1190.0,1130.0,1320.0,1240.0,1170.0,1340.0,1260.0,1310.0,1220.0,1370.0,1290.0,1430.0,1340.0,1270.0,1490.0,1390.0,1310.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[430.0,420.0,440.0,410.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,395.0,410.0,420.0,430.0,440.0,450.0,440.0,460.0,445.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,415.0,425.0,435.0,440.0,450.0,460.0,455.0,470.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,425.0,435.0,445.0,450.0,460.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,465.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,435.0,445.0,455.0,460.0,470.0,520.0,480.0,560.0,540.0,500.0,470.0,460.0,470.0,490.0,500.0,510.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,520.0,510.0,500.0,490.0,640.0,780.0,600.0,540.0,520.0,510.0,500.0,490.0,480.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,450.0,460.0,470.0,480.0,490.0,500.0,490.0,510.0,500.0,490.0,480.0,470.0,480.0,490.0,500.0,510.0,520.0,530.0,520.0,540.0,530.0,520.0,510.0,500.0,510.0,520.0,530.0,540.0,550.0,540.0,530.0,560.0,550.0,540.0,520.0,510.0,520.0,530.0,540.0,550.0,560.0]}},{"title":"International Securities Identification Number","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"International Securities Identification Number\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[9388,10106,9640,9221,9946,9451,9058,9343,9818,9568,9582,9018,10565,9793,11144,9933,11665,11369,11844,12410,14174,15817,15009,12378,14792,11440,12380,12467,12982,10782,12122,12679,13906,12349,12539,12891,14957,12529,11923,11556,12217,11281,16651,12415,13023,15969,33171,46865,52709,58481,44107,64183,58639,15123,12835,12624,11635,9811,8575,8653,9533,9693,10535,9262,8456,7794,9723,8661,7221,8011,7925,7726,8347,7756,8883,8100,8053,7295,7934,8206,7576,8102,7978,7394,8796,7669,9460,8824,9108,8774,9454,9526,9023,9293,8816,8739,11292,9899,10376,9269,9741,9013,9588,9079,9533,10503,9457,9096,9858,8733,9226,8623,9264,7667,13640,10003,7922,7903,7470,7236],"flat_reference_value":17000.272074003395,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[18500.0,19200.0,20800.0,19700.0,20100.0,21000.0,18400.0,17800.0,20600.0,20900.0,21500.0,18400.0,21300.0,20500.0,22400.0,20300.0,22100.0,21500.0,19600.0,19200.0,21800.0,23100.0,22900.0,19700.0,23600.0,22100.0,23700.0,22400.0,23900.0,22100.0,21100.0,20700.0,22600.0,24200.0,23300.0,20000.0,23600.0,22200.0,23800.0,23100.0,24400.0,22500.0,22400.0,21200.0,23900.0,25100.0,23500.0,21000.0,24700.0,23900.0,28200.0,27800.0,26500.0,27600.0,26400.0,24700.0,27900.0,28200.0,28000.0,25700.0,29800.0,28700.0,31900.0,30100.0,29400.0,30600.0,28800.0,27600.0,30500.0,30200.0,31100.0,27000.0,30100.0,28200.0,31500.0,28700.0,30100.0,29800.0,26600.0,26400.0,29200.0,28900.0,30000.0,25700.0,29200.0,27200.0,29800.0,26600.0,29100.0,27800.0,25100.0,25500.0,27400.0,29100.0,28600.0,24500.0,29000.0,27700.0,28800.0,28700.0,29400.0,26800.0,27000.0,25500.0,27900.0,29600.0,28000.0,24900.0,28800.0,27000.0,29000.0,28200.0,28400.0,27000.0,26900.0,24900.0,28200.0,29200.0,27200.0,24300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[29400.0,30100.0,31200.0,29800.0,29500.0,28900.0,26800.0,26400.0,29700.0,30800.0,31400.0,25200.0,31900.0,30600.0,33400.0,29900.0,31800.0,31200.0,28900.0,28500.0,32400.0,34600.0,36200.0,29100.0,39800.0,34200.0,34900.0,32800.0,33100.0,31500.0,29600.0,28900.0,31800.0,33700.0,33200.0,26400.0,33500.0,31900.0,33800.0,31600.0,32400.0,30200.0,29800.0,28400.0,31900.0,33600.0,32700.0,26900.0,34100.0,32800.0,36900.0,34800.0,34200.0,35100.0,33400.0,31800.0,34600.0,35400.0,36100.0,30800.0,40500.0,38900.0,39400.0,36200.0,35400.0,34800.0,32600.0,31900.0,34700.0,35200.0,35800.0,29400.0,34900.0,35600.0,38200.0,33900.0,33400.0,32100.0,29800.0,29400.0,32200.0,32800.0,32500.0,26300.0,32100.0,30400.0,32600.0,28900.0,29500.0,28200.0,26400.0,25900.0,27800.0,28600.0,28100.0,22900.0,27600.0,26800.0,27400.0,26500.0,26100.0,24400.0,23800.0,22900.0,24800.0,25600.0,24900.0,20400.0,24500.0,23400.0,24200.0,23100.0,22600.0,21500.0,20600.0,19800.0,21700.0,22400.0,21800.0,18100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[34500.0,36100.0,35700.0,33200.0,32600.0,31900.0,30200.0,29600.0,32400.0,33800.0,34100.0,28300.0,35200.0,35800.0,37200.0,33700.0,34300.0,33100.0,31200.0,30600.0,33700.0,35100.0,34700.0,27800.0,36600.0,36200.0,38100.0,35200.0,34600.0,33700.0,31600.0,31200.0,34300.0,36700.0,35300.0,28700.0,36200.0,35600.0,37300.0,34200.0,33700.0,32200.0,30800.0,29700.0,33200.0,34700.0,33800.0,27300.0,34200.0,33700.0,36300.0,35200.0,34300.0,33800.0,32200.0,31300.0,34700.0,35300.0,34200.0,28600.0,39400.0,38800.0,39300.0,36700.0,35300.0,34200.0,32700.0,31700.0,34300.0,35800.0,35200.0,28200.0,36300.0,34800.0,37200.0,33700.0,33200.0,31700.0,30300.0,29200.0,32700.0,33700.0,33200.0,26700.0,34700.0,33200.0,35300.0,31700.0,31200.0,29700.0,28700.0,28200.0,30700.0,32200.0,31200.0,25200.0,33200.0,32700.0,33700.0,30700.0,30200.0,28700.0,27700.0,27200.0,29700.0,31200.0,30200.0,24700.0,32200.0,31200.0,32700.0,29700.0,29200.0,27700.0,26700.0,26200.0,28700.0,30200.0,29200.0,23700.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[24500.0,24000.0,25800.0,23500.0,24000.0,23300.0,22100.0,21600.0,23800.0,25000.0,24500.0,20400.0,22800.0,22200.0,24000.0,21500.0,22200.0,21400.0,20300.0,19800.0,21800.0,22900.0,22500.0,18700.0,20800.0,20200.0,21800.0,19700.0,20200.0,19500.0,18400.0,18000.0,19800.0,20800.0,20400.0,17000.0,19000.0,18600.0,20000.0,18200.0,18600.0,18000.0,17100.0,16700.0,18300.0,19200.0,18900.0,15800.0,18400.0,18200.0,21500.0,19000.0,18400.0,17600.0,16700.0,16200.0,17800.0,18700.0,18400.0,15400.0,18500.0,18200.0,18600.0,16900.0,17100.0,16400.0,15600.0,15200.0,16700.0,17500.0,17200.0,14400.0,15600.0,15200.0,16300.0,14700.0,15000.0,14500.0,13700.0,13400.0,14800.0,15500.0,15200.0,12700.0,14000.0,13600.0,14600.0,13200.0,13500.0,13100.0,12400.0,12100.0,13300.0,14000.0,13700.0,11500.0,12900.0,12600.0,13500.0,12200.0,12500.0,12100.0,11500.0,11200.0,12300.0,12900.0,12700.0,10600.0,11900.0,11600.0,12400.0,11300.0,11500.0,11100.0,10600.0,10300.0,11300.0,11900.0,11700.0,9800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[54000.0,55000.0,56000.0,54000.0,54000.0,53000.0,50000.0,49000.0,53000.0,55000.0,56000.0,47000.0,56000.0,55000.0,59000.0,53000.0,56000.0,54000.0,52000.0,51000.0,55000.0,59000.0,61000.0,52000.0,66000.0,60000.0,61000.0,58000.0,58000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,54000.0,58000.0,57000.0,47000.0,56000.0,53000.0,55000.0,52000.0,53000.0,49000.0,51000.0,48000.0,51000.0,54000.0,52000.0,44000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,51000.0,50000.0,47000.0,50000.0,51000.0,51000.0,46000.0,54000.0,55000.0,56000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,43000.0,48000.0,46000.0,49000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,37000.0,43000.0,41000.0,44000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,34000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,29000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[20600.0,19500.0,19700.0,19100.0,18800.0,18600.0,16700.0,16300.0,19500.0,19300.0,18200.0,16400.0,22300.0,21100.0,21300.0,20700.0,20300.0,20100.0,18100.0,17700.0,21100.0,20900.0,19700.0,17800.0,24100.0,22700.0,22900.0,22200.0,21800.0,21600.0,19500.0,19000.0,22700.0,22500.0,21200.0,19100.0,25900.0,24300.0,24500.0,23800.0,23400.0,23100.0,20800.0,20300.0,24300.0,24100.0,22600.0,20400.0,27500.0,25800.0,35200.0,29300.0,27600.0,25800.0,22200.0,21700.0,25800.0,25600.0,24100.0,21800.0,33400.0,29000.0,29300.0,28400.0,28200.0,27600.0,24900.0,24300.0,29000.0,28800.0,27100.0,24400.0,32600.0,30600.0,31800.0,30000.0,29700.0,29100.0,26200.0,25600.0,30600.0,30400.0,28500.0,25700.0,32000.0,30000.0,30300.0,29500.0,29200.0,28600.0,25800.0,25200.0,30000.0,29800.0,28000.0,25300.0,30300.0,28500.0,28700.0,27900.0,29800.0,27100.0,24400.0,23900.0,28500.0,28300.0,26600.0,24000.0,28700.0,26900.0,27100.0,26400.0,26100.0,25600.0,23100.0,22500.0,26900.0,26700.0,25100.0,22600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2385.0,2045.0,2298.0,2212.0,2356.0,2180.0,2055.0,2008.0,2234.0,2330.0,2195.0,1842.0,2671.0,2140.0,2545.0,2388.0,2578.0,2412.0,2260.0,2195.0,2430.0,2502.0,2425.0,2018.0,2895.0,2310.0,2705.0,2622.0,2790.0,2585.0,2440.0,2378.0,2645.0,2755.0,2590.0,2185.0,3160.0,2535.0,3020.0,2832.0,3055.0,2840.0,2685.0,2600.0,2885.0,3010.0,2862.0,2390.0,3545.0,2990.0,5420.0,4195.0,3380.0,3185.0,3015.0,2920.0,3245.0,3390.0,3225.0,2690.0,5450.0,3815.0,3710.0,3485.0,3695.0,3512.0,3290.0,3205.0,3540.0,3700.0,3525.0,2940.0,4150.0,4420.0,5185.0,3730.0,3965.0,3740.0,3535.0,3428.0,3795.0,3970.0,3765.0,3150.0,4380.0,3520.0,4175.0,3935.0,4190.0,3940.0,3725.0,3610.0,3995.0,4185.0,3970.0,3320.0,4605.0,3840.0,4390.0,4135.0,4410.0,4145.0,3915.0,3795.0,4190.0,4395.0,4170.0,3490.0,4820.0,3885.0,4610.0,4335.0,4625.0,4340.0,4105.0,3980.0,4395.0,4615.0,4370.0,3655.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[8200.0,8000.0,8400.0,7900.0,8100.0,7600.0,7300.0,6600.0,7900.0,8300.0,8100.0,6900.0,8700.0,8500.0,8900.0,8300.0,8600.0,8000.0,7700.0,7000.0,8300.0,8800.0,8500.0,7200.0,9200.0,9000.0,9400.0,8800.0,9100.0,8500.0,8100.0,7400.0,8800.0,9300.0,9000.0,7600.0,9700.0,9500.0,9900.0,9300.0,9600.0,9000.0,8600.0,7800.0,9300.0,9800.0,9500.0,8000.0,10300.0,10200.0,14500.0,11500.0,10600.0,10000.0,9800.0,9000.0,10400.0,10600.0,11200.0,9300.0,14000.0,13500.0,11800.0,11400.0,11200.0,11000.0,10800.0,10200.0,11000.0,11300.0,11600.0,9900.0,11600.0,14200.0,15000.0,11800.0,11300.0,10700.0,10400.0,9800.0,10700.0,11000.0,10800.0,9200.0,11200.0,11000.0,13200.0,11200.0,10800.0,10400.0,10200.0,9600.0,10600.0,11000.0,10800.0,9300.0,12600.0,11800.0,12000.0,11600.0,11300.0,10900.0,10800.0,10100.0,11200.0,11600.0,11500.0,9900.0,12200.0,11900.0,12400.0,14600.0,12000.0,11400.0,11100.0,10300.0,11500.0,11900.0,11700.0,10100.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[6900.0,6700.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,6100.0,5900.0,5900.0,6600.0,6800.0,6700.0,6000.0,7400.0,7200.0,7100.0,6900.0,6800.0,6600.0,6300.0,6400.0,7100.0,7400.0,7200.0,6400.0,8000.0,7700.0,7700.0,7400.0,7300.0,7100.0,6800.0,6800.0,7700.0,7900.0,7700.0,6900.0,8500.0,8200.0,8200.0,7900.0,7800.0,7500.0,7200.0,7300.0,8200.0,8400.0,8200.0,7400.0,9500.0,9300.0,14700.0,11600.0,8700.0,8500.0,8100.0,8200.0,9200.0,9500.0,9300.0,8300.0,12600.0,11300.0,9700.0,9400.0,9200.0,8900.0,8600.0,8600.0,9700.0,10000.0,9800.0,8700.0,10600.0,11300.0,10200.0,9900.0,9700.0,9400.0,9000.0,9100.0,10200.0,10500.0,10300.0,9200.0,11100.0,10800.0,12300.0,10400.0,10200.0,9900.0,9500.0,9600.0,10700.0,11000.0,10800.0,9700.0,11700.0,11300.0,11200.0,10900.0,10700.0,10300.0,9900.0,10000.0,11200.0,11600.0,11300.0,10100.0,12200.0,11800.0,11700.0,11400.0,11200.0,10800.0,10400.0,10500.0,11700.0,12100.0,11800.0,10600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3310.0,3160.0,3220.0,3320.0,3010.0,2940.0,2760.0,3060.0,3440.0,3450.0,3070.0,2790.0,3690.0,3280.0,3730.0,3450.0,3350.0,3050.0,3040.0,3280.0,3860.0,3580.0,3490.0,2920.0,4390.0,3780.0,3850.0,3670.0,3560.0,3350.0,3340.0,3320.0,4070.0,3810.0,3710.0,3170.0,4150.0,3930.0,4040.0,4050.0,3660.0,3690.0,3430.0,3660.0,4480.0,4110.0,3850.0,3500.0,4250.0,4100.0,5450.0,5250.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,4250.0,4850.0,4700.0,4500.0,4350.0,6200.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,4750.0,5600.0,5450.0,5200.0,4650.0,5300.0,5000.0,5900.0,5500.0,5200.0,4950.0,4750.0,4950.0,5750.0,5600.0,5350.0,4700.0,5450.0,5000.0,5550.0,5100.0,4850.0,4650.0,4500.0,4700.0,5520.0,5300.0,5050.0,4420.0,5350.0,4950.0,5300.0,5050.0,5400.0,4700.0,4550.0,4750.0,5500.0,5280.0,4980.0,4450.0,4950.0,4600.0,4880.0,5400.0,4700.0,4400.0,4250.0,4450.0,5200.0,5050.0,4750.0,4200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[24900.0,22600.0,25700.0,23100.0,22900.0,22000.0,20800.0,20600.0,24500.0,24500.0,23000.0,21200.0,27700.0,25100.0,28500.0,25600.0,25400.0,24300.0,23400.0,22500.0,27200.0,27300.0,25600.0,23900.0,31500.0,28500.0,32400.0,29100.0,28900.0,27700.0,26200.0,26000.0,30800.0,31000.0,29100.0,26800.0,36400.0,33000.0,37500.0,33600.0,33400.0,32000.0,30300.0,30000.0,35600.0,35800.0,33600.0,31000.0,41300.0,39500.0,75900.0,55700.0,39500.0,36300.0,34800.0,33700.0,40800.0,40100.0,38500.0,35200.0,71800.0,45300.0,53600.0,46600.0,54700.0,44000.0,42000.0,40800.0,49400.0,48600.0,53400.0,42900.0,48300.0,49400.0,65800.0,44800.0,44200.0,44900.0,40300.0,39800.0,52400.0,47000.0,44800.0,41500.0,56600.0,47800.0,65700.0,49200.0,47900.0,46400.0,44300.0,43000.0,51700.0,54000.0,49100.0,45300.0,67700.0,53700.0,63500.0,59500.0,54200.0,52100.0,49800.0,48300.0,58500.0,57600.0,55200.0,50500.0,66200.0,58700.0,69300.0,60200.0,58800.0,57300.0,54000.0,53100.0,63200.0,63300.0,59800.0,55500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4600.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5900.0,4700.0,4600.0,5200.0,5500.0,5700.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,5100.0,5100.0,5200.0,5300.0,4900.0,5000.0,5500.0,5800.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4900.0,5300.0,5400.0,5500.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,5700.0,6000.0,6200.0,5700.0,5300.0,5100.0,5500.0,5600.0,5700.0,5900.0,5400.0,5500.0,6000.0,6400.0,6600.0,6200.0,6000.0,6800.0,8500.0,7400.0,6400.0,6600.0,5900.0,5800.0,6400.0,6800.0,7000.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,6600.0,6800.0,6900.0,7100.0,6400.0,6500.0,7100.0,7400.0,7700.0,6900.0,7000.0,6800.0,7500.0,7500.0,7400.0,7700.0,7000.0,7100.0,7700.0,8000.0,8200.0,7500.0,7400.0,7200.0,7700.0,7800.0,7700.0,7600.0,7100.0,7200.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,7700.0,7600.0,7400.0,7900.0,8100.0,8000.0,8100.0,7500.0,7600.0,8400.0,8700.0,9000.0,8300.0,8000.0,7800.0,8300.0,8500.0,8400.0,8500.0,7900.0,8000.0,8700.0,9000.0,9300.0,8600.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,2900.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,3400.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3100.0,3600.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3300.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3400.0,3900.0,4000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,3800.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,3900.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,3700.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,3600.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3400.0,3800.0,3800.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3100.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1888.0,1654.0,1576.0,1827.0,1638.0,1564.0,1536.0,1452.0,1757.0,1872.0,1708.0,1743.0,1963.0,1728.0,1662.0,1902.0,1715.0,1637.0,1613.0,1536.0,1836.0,1954.0,1772.0,1811.0,4366.0,1938.0,1784.0,2031.0,1812.0,1743.0,1716.0,1604.0,1962.0,2048.0,1856.0,1918.0,2048.0,1783.0,1731.0,1974.0,1779.0,1693.0,1672.0,1584.0,1896.0,2006.0,1834.0,1882.0,2197.0,1861.0,3136.0,2124.0,1869.0,1766.0,1742.0,1648.0,2062.0,2147.0,2003.0,2086.0,2296.0,1967.0,1897.0,2192.0,1953.0,1864.0,1843.0,1748.0,2124.0,2243.0,2049.0,2098.0,2458.0,2096.0,2402.0,2346.0,2078.0,1998.0,1964.0,1872.0,2376.0,2404.0,2197.0,2276.0,2592.0,2249.0,2746.0,2503.0,2254.0,2308.0,2146.0,2018.0,2563.0,2496.0,2296.0,2403.0,2746.0,2408.0,2701.0,2608.0,2356.0,2454.0,2248.0,2126.0,2846.0,2648.0,2446.0,2542.0,2693.0,2361.0,2554.0,2507.0,2302.0,2247.0,2194.0,2079.0,2648.0,2542.0,2348.0,2443.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[520.0,500.0,560.0,535.0,550.0,525.0,510.0,520.0,540.0,555.0,530.0,500.0,540.0,520.0,580.0,560.0,575.0,540.0,530.0,535.0,560.0,590.0,570.0,535.0,590.0,560.0,620.0,600.0,610.0,585.0,570.0,580.0,610.0,630.0,600.0,565.0,640.0,610.0,670.0,645.0,660.0,630.0,610.0,625.0,650.0,680.0,640.0,600.0,680.0,650.0,720.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,780.0,800.0,840.0,880.0,820.0,760.0,850.0,800.0,890.0,870.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,840.0,900.0,920.0,860.0,800.0,800.0,760.0,850.0,820.0,830.0,790.0,780.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,860.0,790.0,760.0,720.0,800.0,770.0,780.0,740.0,720.0,730.0,770.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,720.0,680.0,750.0,730.0,740.0,700.0,680.0,690.0,730.0,760.0,710.0,670.0,700.0,660.0,730.0,710.0,720.0,690.0,670.0,680.0,720.0,750.0,700.0,660.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2205.0,2268.0,2268.0,2205.0,2142.0,1995.0,1890.0,1932.0,2142.0,2205.0,2163.0,1890.0,2153.0,2214.0,2214.0,2153.0,2091.0,1948.0,1845.0,1886.0,2091.0,2153.0,2112.0,1845.0,2205.0,2268.0,2268.0,2205.0,2142.0,1995.0,1890.0,1932.0,2142.0,2205.0,2163.0,1890.0,2100.0,2160.0,2160.0,2100.0,2040.0,1900.0,1800.0,1840.0,2040.0,2100.0,2060.0,1800.0,2310.0,2376.0,2376.0,2310.0,2244.0,2090.0,1980.0,2024.0,2244.0,2310.0,2266.0,1980.0,2205.0,2268.0,2268.0,2205.0,2142.0,1995.0,1890.0,1932.0,2142.0,2205.0,2163.0,1890.0,2048.0,2106.0,2106.0,2048.0,1989.0,1853.0,1755.0,1794.0,1989.0,2048.0,2009.0,1755.0,1890.0,1944.0,1944.0,1890.0,1836.0,1710.0,1620.0,1656.0,1836.0,1890.0,1854.0,1620.0,1733.0,1782.0,1782.0,1733.0,1683.0,1568.0,1485.0,1518.0,1683.0,1733.0,1700.0,1485.0,1575.0,1620.0,1620.0,1575.0,1530.0,1425.0,1350.0,1380.0,1530.0,1575.0,1545.0,1350.0]}},{"title":"Categorical distribution","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Categorical distribution\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[4517,5221,5663,5309,4864,4207,4043,3818,4906,5322,5525,4759,5167,5557,6476,5701,5695,5015,4784,4986,5862,7259,6983,5006,6365,6231,8001,6800,6502,5402,5369,5259,5835,7367,7971,6291,6967,6847,8075,7473,6711,5643,5920,5460,6568,8011,7379,6011,7335,7822,7706,8000,7820,6633,6084,5917,6875,7729,7730,7021,8252,8834,9755,8187,7132,6196,5543,5364,6502,7171,7629,5779,6811,7476,7317,6868,6641,5871,5226,5483,6060,7380,7401,5916,6147,7746,7679,6480,6242,5738,5037,5079,5621,6647,6781,5390,6130,7163,6697,6314,5702,4887,4475,4283,5363,5572,5434,4555,4979,5269,5206,4798,4251,3425,3225,3426,4045,4013,3835,3150],"flat_reference_value":17054.119670723572,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7800.0,8400.0,9100.0,9500.0,9000.0,7500.0,6800.0,7100.0,8500.0,9800.0,9400.0,7800.0,8500.0,9300.0,10200.0,10500.0,9900.0,8200.0,7500.0,7900.0,9400.0,10800.0,10400.0,8600.0,9400.0,10200.0,11300.0,11700.0,10900.0,9200.0,8300.0,8800.0,10400.0,12000.0,11500.0,9500.0,10300.0,11100.0,12400.0,12800.0,12000.0,10100.0,9200.0,9600.0,11400.0,13100.0,12600.0,10400.0,11300.0,12100.0,13000.0,13900.0,12800.0,10800.0,9900.0,10500.0,12500.0,14400.0,13900.0,11500.0,12400.0,13300.0,14900.0,15200.0,14100.0,11900.0,10800.0,11500.0,13600.0,15700.0,15100.0,12400.0,13300.0,14300.0,15900.0,16200.0,15000.0,12600.0,11500.0,12200.0,14500.0,16700.0,16000.0,13100.0,14200.0,15100.0,16900.0,17200.0,16000.0,13500.0,12300.0,13000.0,15400.0,17800.0,17000.0,13900.0,15000.0,16100.0,17900.0,18300.0,16900.0,14300.0,13000.0,13700.0,16200.0,18700.0,17800.0,14600.0,15600.0,16700.0,18500.0,18900.0,17500.0,14700.0,13400.0,14100.0,16700.0,19300.0,18400.0,15000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[11800.0,13400.0,14600.0,14900.0,13800.0,11500.0,10900.0,11400.0,14200.0,15800.0,15600.0,12400.0,13100.0,14800.0,16500.0,16200.0,15100.0,12800.0,12200.0,12700.0,15600.0,17500.0,17300.0,13800.0,14600.0,16100.0,18200.0,18000.0,16700.0,14100.0,13600.0,14200.0,17100.0,19400.0,19100.0,15200.0,16100.0,17800.0,19800.0,19600.0,18300.0,15300.0,14900.0,15400.0,18600.0,21200.0,20600.0,16500.0,17400.0,19100.0,19500.0,21400.0,20200.0,17100.0,16400.0,16800.0,20100.0,22600.0,22100.0,17900.0,18800.0,20400.0,22800.0,22300.0,20500.0,17200.0,16300.0,16700.0,19800.0,22400.0,21900.0,17500.0,18200.0,19600.0,21800.0,21100.0,19400.0,16200.0,15400.0,15900.0,18900.0,21300.0,20800.0,16400.0,17100.0,18200.0,19900.0,18900.0,17400.0,14600.0,13900.0,14300.0,16800.0,18700.0,18100.0,14200.0,14900.0,15900.0,17200.0,16800.0,15400.0,12900.0,12400.0,12700.0,14900.0,16600.0,16100.0,12800.0,13400.0,14300.0,15600.0,15200.0,13900.0,11800.0,11300.0,11600.0,13700.0,15100.0,14600.0,11700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[15100.0,16800.0,18900.0,19400.0,18200.0,13500.0,11800.0,12600.0,16400.0,19800.0,20200.0,14100.0,16200.0,18100.0,20400.0,21000.0,19600.0,14400.0,12500.0,13400.0,17600.0,21200.0,21800.0,15200.0,17200.0,19100.0,21800.0,22400.0,20800.0,15200.0,13200.0,14100.0,18600.0,22700.0,23300.0,16100.0,18100.0,20200.0,22900.0,23600.0,21800.0,15900.0,13800.0,14800.0,19500.0,23900.0,24500.0,16900.0,18500.0,20400.0,18900.0,19600.0,19200.0,14800.0,13100.0,14200.0,18700.0,22600.0,23400.0,16200.0,17600.0,19400.0,21900.0,22500.0,20700.0,15100.0,13000.0,13900.0,18200.0,22100.0,22800.0,15800.0,16800.0,18400.0,20800.0,21400.0,19600.0,14200.0,12300.0,13100.0,17200.0,20900.0,21500.0,14900.0,15200.0,16800.0,18900.0,19400.0,17800.0,12800.0,11000.0,11800.0,15400.0,18700.0,19200.0,13300.0,14000.0,15400.0,17200.0,17800.0,16300.0,11600.0,10100.0,10800.0,14100.0,17100.0,17600.0,12100.0,12900.0,14200.0,15900.0,16400.0,15000.0,10700.0,9300.0,10000.0,13000.0,15800.0,16300.0,11200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[9000.0,9980.0,10450.0,10260.0,9500.0,8360.0,8080.0,8360.0,9500.0,10260.0,10260.0,8360.0,9980.0,11030.0,11550.0,11340.0,10500.0,9240.0,8930.0,9240.0,10500.0,11340.0,11340.0,9240.0,10450.0,11550.0,12100.0,11880.0,11000.0,9680.0,9350.0,9680.0,11000.0,11880.0,11880.0,9680.0,10930.0,12080.0,12650.0,12420.0,11500.0,10120.0,9780.0,10120.0,11500.0,12420.0,12420.0,10120.0,11210.0,12390.0,12980.0,12740.0,11800.0,10380.0,10030.0,10380.0,11800.0,12740.0,12740.0,10380.0,10930.0,12080.0,12650.0,12420.0,11500.0,10120.0,9780.0,10120.0,11500.0,12420.0,12420.0,10120.0,10260.0,11340.0,11880.0,11660.0,10800.0,9500.0,9180.0,9500.0,10800.0,11660.0,11660.0,9500.0,9310.0,10290.0,10780.0,10580.0,9800.0,8620.0,8330.0,8620.0,9800.0,10580.0,10580.0,8620.0,8360.0,9240.0,9680.0,9500.0,8800.0,7740.0,7480.0,7740.0,8800.0,9500.0,9500.0,7740.0,7600.0,8400.0,8800.0,8640.0,8000.0,7040.0,6800.0,7040.0,8000.0,8640.0,8640.0,7040.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[11600.0,12200.0,13000.0,12800.0,12400.0,11200.0,10600.0,10500.0,11800.0,13200.0,13300.0,11500.0,12500.0,13200.0,14100.0,13900.0,13400.0,12100.0,11500.0,11400.0,12700.0,14300.0,14300.0,12300.0,12700.0,13300.0,14100.0,13900.0,13400.0,12100.0,11400.0,11300.0,12700.0,14200.0,14100.0,12100.0,12000.0,12500.0,13200.0,13000.0,12600.0,11300.0,10700.0,10600.0,11900.0,13300.0,13200.0,11400.0,11700.0,12200.0,12600.0,13300.0,13000.0,11800.0,10900.0,10600.0,11600.0,12900.0,12800.0,11000.0,10600.0,10900.0,11500.0,11200.0,10700.0,9600.0,8900.0,8700.0,9600.0,10600.0,10500.0,9000.0,8700.0,9000.0,9500.0,9300.0,8900.0,8000.0,7500.0,7400.0,8200.0,9100.0,9000.0,7700.0,7600.0,7900.0,8300.0,8100.0,7800.0,7000.0,6600.0,6500.0,7300.0,8100.0,8000.0,6900.0,6900.0,7200.0,7600.0,7500.0,7200.0,6500.0,6100.0,6000.0,6800.0,7600.0,7500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6700.0,7100.0,7000.0,6700.0,6100.0,5700.0,5600.0,6300.0,7000.0,6900.0,6000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6950.0,6880.0,7310.0,7190.0,6990.0,5340.0,5090.0,5450.0,6660.0,7380.0,7450.0,6540.0,7120.0,7290.0,7660.0,7510.0,7180.0,5590.0,5300.0,5610.0,6980.0,7720.0,7640.0,6830.0,7640.0,7480.0,8050.0,7870.0,7610.0,5690.0,5540.0,5880.0,7260.0,8090.0,8150.0,7110.0,7860.0,7690.0,8280.0,8060.0,7850.0,5840.0,5700.0,6050.0,7340.0,8310.0,8420.0,7260.0,7520.0,7590.0,8600.0,8300.0,7700.0,5900.0,5700.0,6000.0,7400.0,8100.0,8200.0,7000.0,7290.0,7410.0,7620.0,7780.0,7260.0,5520.0,5390.0,5700.0,7080.0,7590.0,7910.0,6910.0,7430.0,7270.0,7790.0,7640.0,7310.0,5660.0,5410.0,5720.0,7090.0,7820.0,7760.0,7080.0,7900.0,7840.0,8220.0,8070.0,7730.0,5980.0,5850.0,6060.0,7470.0,8260.0,8390.0,7320.0,8310.0,8120.0,8700.0,8640.0,8110.0,6180.0,6150.0,6360.0,7880.0,8470.0,8850.0,7690.0,8520.0,8330.0,8910.0,8740.0,8470.0,6330.0,6300.0,6510.0,8080.0,8920.0,9070.0,7880.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1784.0,1987.0,2123.0,1912.0,1689.0,1415.0,1218.0,1324.0,1796.0,2014.0,1932.0,1389.0,1985.0,2214.0,2308.0,2096.0,1843.0,1542.0,1337.0,1462.0,1968.0,2217.0,2145.0,1538.0,2194.0,2426.0,2513.0,2289.0,2017.0,1695.0,1488.0,1613.0,2142.0,2421.0,2348.0,1712.0,2362.0,2594.0,2718.0,2487.0,2163.0,1834.0,1619.0,1746.0,2315.0,2618.0,2539.0,1842.0,2513.0,2719.0,3427.0,3594.0,3186.0,2418.0,1993.0,2115.0,2714.0,3018.0,2893.0,2217.0,2814.0,3012.0,3146.0,2891.0,2518.0,2113.0,1846.0,1962.0,2613.0,2947.0,2862.0,2094.0,2918.0,3145.0,3296.0,3012.0,2614.0,2217.0,1943.0,2068.0,2746.0,3094.0,2991.0,2213.0,2846.0,3092.0,3215.0,2943.0,2548.0,2146.0,1895.0,2013.0,2648.0,2997.0,2912.0,2148.0,2594.0,2813.0,2917.0,2689.0,2314.0,1948.0,1712.0,1815.0,2396.0,2713.0,2618.0,1914.0,2412.0,2598.0,2714.0,2493.0,2147.0,1819.0,1594.0,1708.0,2246.0,2513.0,2439.0,1798.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[12850.0,12700.0,12300.0,12400.0,11300.0,10200.0,9600.0,9900.0,12300.0,13100.0,12400.0,10900.0,14200.0,14300.0,13700.0,13900.0,12600.0,11700.0,10300.0,11200.0,13400.0,14600.0,13800.0,12100.0,15700.0,15900.0,15200.0,15400.0,14000.0,12900.0,11500.0,12400.0,15200.0,16100.0,15300.0,13400.0,17500.0,17700.0,16900.0,17100.0,15500.0,14400.0,12800.0,13800.0,16900.0,18000.0,17100.0,15000.0,19800.0,19900.0,20400.0,19600.0,17300.0,15700.0,14200.0,15500.0,19200.0,20100.0,19000.0,16800.0,21300.0,21500.0,20400.0,20800.0,18900.0,17500.0,15400.0,16800.0,20500.0,21800.0,20600.0,18100.0,22800.0,22900.0,21800.0,22100.0,20100.0,18700.0,16400.0,17900.0,21900.0,23300.0,23900.0,19600.0,25900.0,25400.0,25100.0,24400.0,22400.0,20800.0,18900.0,19800.0,24600.0,25800.0,25000.0,21700.0,28600.0,28100.0,27600.0,27100.0,24800.0,23000.0,20400.0,22100.0,27200.0,28700.0,27400.0,23900.0,30800.0,30300.0,29700.0,29100.0,26700.0,24800.0,22100.0,23700.0,29300.0,31000.0,29500.0,25800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1350.0,1310.0,1370.0,1320.0,1270.0,1150.0,1080.0,1100.0,1300.0,1400.0,1370.0,1190.0,1460.0,1420.0,1490.0,1430.0,1380.0,1240.0,1160.0,1190.0,1400.0,1510.0,1480.0,1280.0,1570.0,1520.0,1600.0,1540.0,1480.0,1330.0,1250.0,1280.0,1500.0,1620.0,1590.0,1380.0,1670.0,1630.0,1700.0,1640.0,1580.0,1430.0,1340.0,1370.0,1610.0,1740.0,1700.0,1470.0,1780.0,1730.0,1810.0,1750.0,1680.0,1520.0,1420.0,1450.0,1710.0,1850.0,1810.0,1570.0,1890.0,1840.0,1920.0,1850.0,1780.0,1610.0,1510.0,1540.0,1820.0,1960.0,1920.0,1660.0,2000.0,1940.0,2030.0,1960.0,1890.0,1700.0,1590.0,1630.0,1920.0,2070.0,2030.0,1760.0,2110.0,2050.0,2140.0,2070.0,1990.0,1790.0,1680.0,1720.0,2030.0,2180.0,2140.0,1850.0,2210.0,2150.0,2250.0,2170.0,2090.0,1880.0,1760.0,1800.0,2130.0,2290.0,2250.0,1950.0,2320.0,2260.0,2360.0,2280.0,2190.0,1980.0,1850.0,1890.0,2240.0,2410.0,2360.0,2040.0],"meta/muse-ember":[680.0,702.0,760.0,727.0,590.0,383.0,368.0,411.0,830.0,752.0,749.0,485.0,774.0,684.0,874.0,713.0,646.0,429.0,345.0,459.0,850.0,858.0,744.0,589.0,781.0,771.0,831.0,829.0,652.0,473.0,354.0,450.0,928.0,840.0,853.0,565.0,918.0,771.0,960.0,848.0,736.0,459.0,418.0,519.0,948.0,979.0,865.0,698.0,924.0,943.0,1097.0,990.0,756.0,586.0,473.0,522.0,1109.0,994.0,962.0,655.0,1019.0,901.0,1097.0,969.0,850.0,525.0,473.0,576.0,1096.0,1129.0,940.0,746.0,918.0,943.0,1029.0,985.0,766.0,557.0,434.0,530.0,1103.0,1008.0,995.0,693.0,834.0,809.0,917.0,897.0,704.0,497.0,408.0,517.0,984.0,965.0,843.0,636.0,795.0,792.0,855.0,845.0,663.0,435.0,408.0,463.0,955.0,873.0,828.0,575.0,735.0,712.0,791.0,766.0,614.0,451.0,359.0,442.0,866.0,859.0,751.0,538.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3116.0,3990.0,4484.0,4256.0,4636.0,3496.0,2736.0,2584.0,4750.0,4484.0,4256.0,2812.0,3362.0,4305.0,4838.0,4592.0,5002.0,3772.0,2952.0,2788.0,5125.0,4838.0,4592.0,3034.0,3772.0,4830.0,5428.0,5152.0,5612.0,4232.0,3312.0,3128.0,5750.0,5428.0,5152.0,3404.0,4264.0,5460.0,6136.0,5824.0,6344.0,4784.0,3744.0,3536.0,6500.0,6136.0,5824.0,3848.0,4756.0,6090.0,7744.0,7996.0,8076.0,5636.0,4176.0,3944.0,7250.0,6844.0,6496.0,4292.0,5166.0,6615.0,7434.0,7056.0,7686.0,5796.0,4536.0,4284.0,7875.0,7434.0,7056.0,4662.0,4920.0,6300.0,7080.0,6720.0,7320.0,5520.0,4320.0,4080.0,7500.0,7080.0,6720.0,4440.0,5576.0,7140.0,8024.0,7616.0,8296.0,6256.0,4896.0,4624.0,8500.0,8024.0,7616.0,5032.0,5084.0,6510.0,7316.0,6944.0,7564.0,5704.0,4464.0,4216.0,7750.0,7316.0,6944.0,4588.0,4018.0,5145.0,5782.0,5488.0,5978.0,4508.0,3528.0,3332.0,6125.0,5782.0,5488.0,3626.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[11400.0,11900.0,12600.0,13000.0,12200.0,10900.0,9800.0,10400.0,12000.0,13100.0,12600.0,10200.0,12000.0,12600.0,13300.0,13700.0,12900.0,11600.0,10400.0,11100.0,12700.0,13900.0,13400.0,10900.0,12900.0,13600.0,14400.0,14800.0,13900.0,12500.0,11200.0,12000.0,13700.0,15000.0,14500.0,11700.0,13800.0,14500.0,15400.0,15800.0,14900.0,13400.0,12000.0,12800.0,14700.0,16100.0,15600.0,12700.0,14500.0,15200.0,17100.0,16900.0,16000.0,14300.0,12800.0,13700.0,15700.0,17100.0,16500.0,13300.0,15300.0,16000.0,16900.0,17400.0,16300.0,14600.0,13000.0,13900.0,15900.0,17400.0,16900.0,13700.0,15800.0,16500.0,17400.0,17900.0,16800.0,15000.0,13400.0,14300.0,16400.0,18000.0,18600.0,14200.0,15900.0,16600.0,17600.0,18000.0,16900.0,15100.0,13500.0,14500.0,16600.0,18100.0,17600.0,14300.0,15500.0,16200.0,17200.0,17600.0,16500.0,14800.0,13200.0,14100.0,16100.0,17600.0,17100.0,14100.0,15100.0,15800.0,16800.0,17200.0,16100.0,14400.0,12800.0,13700.0,15600.0,17000.0,16600.0,13500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[620.0,680.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,600.0,580.0,590.0,700.0,760.0,780.0,650.0,740.0,800.0,850.0,820.0,820.0,720.0,690.0,700.0,820.0,900.0,930.0,780.0,900.0,960.0,1020.0,1000.0,1000.0,880.0,840.0,860.0,980.0,1080.0,1100.0,920.0,1060.0,1130.0,1200.0,1180.0,1150.0,1000.0,960.0,980.0,1120.0,1240.0,1260.0,1050.0,1200.0,1280.0,1320.0,1350.0,1280.0,1150.0,1100.0,1120.0,1300.0,1420.0,1440.0,1200.0,1380.0,1460.0,1550.0,1520.0,1450.0,1300.0,1250.0,1270.0,1450.0,1560.0,1580.0,1320.0,1500.0,1580.0,1660.0,1620.0,1560.0,1380.0,1320.0,1350.0,1540.0,1650.0,1680.0,1400.0,1580.0,1660.0,1740.0,1700.0,1640.0,1440.0,1380.0,1410.0,1600.0,1720.0,1750.0,1450.0,1620.0,1700.0,1760.0,1720.0,1640.0,1420.0,1360.0,1390.0,1560.0,1680.0,1700.0,1400.0,1540.0,1600.0,1660.0,1600.0,1520.0,1320.0,1260.0,1290.0,1450.0,1560.0,1580.0,1300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4620.0,4120.0,3940.0,3410.0,4030.0,4260.0,3090.0,2910.0,4110.0,3950.0,3390.0,2970.0,5020.0,4680.0,4230.0,3820.0,4510.0,4720.0,3400.0,3180.0,4590.0,4410.0,3600.0,3320.0,5920.0,5260.0,4880.0,4310.0,5110.0,5430.0,3910.0,3690.0,5260.0,5060.0,4090.0,3820.0,6720.0,6090.0,5610.0,4980.0,5870.0,6190.0,4510.0,4250.0,5990.0,5720.0,4940.0,4280.0,8590.0,7950.0,8410.0,7540.0,8320.0,8290.0,6520.0,6180.0,8450.0,7690.0,6510.0,5620.0,9960.0,8720.0,8140.0,7370.0,8480.0,8910.0,7040.0,6620.0,8690.0,8120.0,7010.0,6230.0,9730.0,9150.0,8570.0,7920.0,8880.0,9330.0,6910.0,6480.0,9160.0,8640.0,7490.0,6650.0,12100.0,12850.0,10780.0,9560.0,10690.0,10920.0,8420.0,7720.0,10940.0,10360.0,8690.0,7800.0,11180.0,10540.0,9730.0,8820.0,9890.0,10180.0,7750.0,7210.0,10040.0,9510.0,8190.0,7380.0,10690.0,9930.0,9210.0,8290.0,9350.0,9630.0,7320.0,6890.0,9600.0,9120.0,7780.0,6910.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[390.0,360.0,375.0,365.0,400.0,325.0,290.0,310.0,385.0,410.0,350.0,275.0,410.0,375.0,390.0,385.0,420.0,340.0,300.0,325.0,405.0,430.0,370.0,290.0,420.0,390.0,405.0,400.0,435.0,350.0,310.0,335.0,420.0,445.0,380.0,300.0,435.0,400.0,415.0,410.0,450.0,360.0,320.0,345.0,435.0,460.0,395.0,310.0,480.0,440.0,465.0,470.0,500.0,410.0,365.0,390.0,475.0,510.0,435.0,340.0,470.0,430.0,450.0,445.0,485.0,395.0,350.0,380.0,460.0,490.0,420.0,330.0,450.0,415.0,435.0,425.0,465.0,380.0,335.0,360.0,445.0,470.0,405.0,320.0,440.0,405.0,425.0,415.0,450.0,370.0,325.0,350.0,430.0,455.0,390.0,310.0,425.0,390.0,410.0,400.0,440.0,360.0,315.0,340.0,415.0,440.0,380.0,300.0,410.0,380.0,395.0,390.0,425.0,350.0,305.0,330.0,400.0,425.0,365.0,290.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3465.0,3630.0,3630.0,3465.0,3300.0,2805.0,2640.0,2970.0,3630.0,3696.0,3465.0,2805.0,3570.0,3740.0,3740.0,3570.0,3400.0,2890.0,2720.0,3060.0,3740.0,3808.0,3570.0,2890.0,3780.0,3960.0,3960.0,3780.0,3600.0,3060.0,2880.0,3240.0,3960.0,4032.0,3780.0,3060.0,3885.0,4070.0,4070.0,3885.0,3700.0,3145.0,2960.0,3330.0,4070.0,4144.0,3885.0,3145.0,4200.0,4400.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3400.0,3200.0,3600.0,4400.0,4480.0,4200.0,3400.0,4095.0,4290.0,4290.0,4095.0,3900.0,3315.0,3120.0,3510.0,4290.0,4368.0,4095.0,3315.0,4200.0,4400.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3400.0,3200.0,3600.0,4400.0,4480.0,4200.0,3400.0,4515.0,4730.0,4730.0,4515.0,4300.0,3655.0,3440.0,3870.0,4730.0,4816.0,4515.0,3655.0,4410.0,4620.0,4620.0,4410.0,4200.0,3570.0,3360.0,3780.0,4620.0,4704.0,4410.0,3570.0,3675.0,3850.0,3850.0,3675.0,3500.0,2975.0,2800.0,3150.0,3850.0,3920.0,3675.0,2975.0]}},{"title":"Basmala","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Basmala\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[20352,18444,19798,19601,19432,19983,17461,17156,17336,18490,17226,17681,18725,17240,21581,19921,19450,18060,20612,19007,20774,23029,22811,24256,27833,25741,28123,24957,26624,25536,22338,24773,24575,28259,53349,35734,36684,33949,32336,28032,29756,28371,32568,34117,32944,31138,30227,30321,26785,25722,27639,30836,34310,27413,29924,31927,26933,32134,28059,30076,30062,25025,28938,28514,26754,23621,26880,30055,27801,26551,26695,29035,34526,27187,27730,27764,23709,24415,25552,25594,29229,27621,28529,23139,24306,21011,24432,22489,22981,23693,25688,27050,28549,36062,33487,35100,35932,28828,33108,29723,29511,23151,22289,23620,23254,29139,23803,23807,25468,23893,32512,27981,21374,32380,25692,30592,31942,28379,28951,22931],"flat_reference_value":16925.76565522173,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[15500.0,14600.0,15800.0,15400.0,16900.0,24500.0,19000.0,15800.0,16100.0,15700.0,15100.0,15700.0,16100.0,15000.0,16400.0,16300.0,19500.0,25500.0,17300.0,16600.0,16900.0,16500.0,16000.0,16600.0,17000.0,15800.0,17300.0,17100.0,22700.0,23200.0,17900.0,17400.0,17700.0,17400.0,16800.0,17400.0,17700.0,16400.0,18100.0,18000.0,27800.0,20700.0,18500.0,18200.0,18400.0,18100.0,17500.0,18100.0,18700.0,17600.0,19400.0,22100.0,29600.0,19800.0,19200.0,18900.0,19000.0,19300.0,18600.0,19200.0,19800.0,18300.0,20000.0,27700.0,25400.0,19500.0,19900.0,19700.0,20000.0,19900.0,19200.0,19800.0,20400.0,18800.0,21400.0,31900.0,21900.0,20300.0,21100.0,20600.0,20700.0,20700.0,19900.0,20500.0,21000.0,19500.0,25400.0,30000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21600.0,21300.0,21400.0,22000.0,21200.0,22000.0,22300.0,21000.0,32600.0,26500.0,22900.0,22000.0,22700.0,22400.0,22500.0,22600.0,21800.0,22400.0,23000.0,21800.0,35000.0,24000.0,23700.0,22800.0,23400.0,23100.0,23000.0,23200.0,22400.0,23100.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[33400.0,30800.0,32500.0,31900.0,33800.0,45200.0,35600.0,32100.0,31700.0,32400.0,32900.0,33500.0,34200.0,31100.0,33900.0,32800.0,41500.0,44100.0,33600.0,32900.0,32200.0,33400.0,33100.0,34500.0,35200.0,31800.0,34600.0,33900.0,44800.0,41200.0,34100.0,33700.0,33200.0,46500.0,96400.0,63800.0,54200.0,58900.0,46300.0,40800.0,51400.0,38900.0,36800.0,36100.0,35200.0,35900.0,35500.0,36700.0,37800.0,34900.0,38400.0,53600.0,52100.0,39200.0,38500.0,38100.0,37200.0,38600.0,37900.0,38800.0,39100.0,35400.0,38200.0,52800.0,48600.0,36900.0,36500.0,35800.0,34900.0,35600.0,35100.0,36200.0,36400.0,32900.0,36100.0,49500.0,37400.0,33800.0,34200.0,33500.0,32700.0,33400.0,33900.0,34600.0,34100.0,30800.0,43800.0,45100.0,33200.0,31800.0,31500.0,31200.0,30600.0,35800.0,37400.0,33900.0,32100.0,29400.0,42600.0,35200.0,29800.0,28400.0,27900.0,27600.0,26800.0,27500.0,27100.0,27800.0,27400.0,26200.0,39800.0,26900.0,25800.0,25100.0,24800.0,24600.0,24100.0,24700.0,24400.0,25200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[27800.0,26900.0,29400.0,28100.0,30500.0,36200.0,32800.0,26500.0,28300.0,29100.0,28700.0,27200.0,29300.0,27800.0,31200.0,30100.0,37400.0,38200.0,28500.0,28100.0,30400.0,31800.0,31100.0,29600.0,31500.0,29800.0,32600.0,32100.0,39500.0,35800.0,29200.0,29900.0,31400.0,34800.0,56200.0,49800.0,46100.0,37200.0,36800.0,34900.0,43500.0,35100.0,31800.0,30500.0,32200.0,33900.0,34100.0,31600.0,33400.0,31200.0,35100.0,44800.0,47600.0,33200.0,31400.0,30800.0,32100.0,33900.0,33200.0,30500.0,32800.0,29900.0,33100.0,42300.0,40100.0,31500.0,29800.0,28900.0,31200.0,33400.0,32500.0,30100.0,31900.0,29400.0,33600.0,41800.0,35200.0,29600.0,28300.0,28700.0,30900.0,32400.0,31800.0,29100.0,31200.0,28800.0,38400.0,41200.0,31900.0,28200.0,27900.0,28400.0,30100.0,33200.0,31600.0,29500.0,31400.0,29200.0,39800.0,37500.0,31100.0,28100.0,27400.0,27800.0,29600.0,31900.0,30800.0,28900.0,30700.0,32800.0,39100.0,32200.0,29800.0,27400.0,26900.0,27100.0,29200.0,31000.0,30400.0,28200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33500.0,37000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31500.0,30500.0,32000.0,31500.0,33500.0,35000.0,30000.0,28500.0,29500.0,30500.0,30500.0,28500.0,30000.0,29000.0,30500.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28500.0,27500.0,29000.0,28500.0,32000.0,28500.0,26500.0,25500.0,26500.0,27500.0,27500.0,26000.0,27500.0,26500.0,29000.0,32000.0,32500.0,27500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25500.0,26000.0,26000.0,24500.0,25500.0,24500.0,26000.0,29000.0,27500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22500.0,23500.0,22500.0,24500.0,27500.0,23500.0,22000.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,22000.0,22000.0,20500.0,21500.0,21000.0,24500.0,24500.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19500.0,23500.0,21500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,19000.0,19000.0,17500.0,18500.0,19000.0,22000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,16500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,40000.0,37000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,37000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,39000.0,43000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,44000.0,42000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,46000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,41000.0,49000.0,52000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,41000.0,42000.0,38000.0,41000.0,47000.0,44000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,34000.0,37000.0,43000.0,37000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,32000.0,38000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,39000.0,35000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,38000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10850.0,11240.0,10930.0,11120.0,10760.0,25080.0,16730.0,10940.0,12510.0,12060.0,10890.0,11340.0,11280.0,11570.0,11390.0,11640.0,18230.0,26190.0,13170.0,11420.0,13580.0,11340.0,11680.0,11430.0,11920.0,12080.0,11840.0,12170.0,26040.0,19480.0,11830.0,13590.0,13020.0,12090.0,17830.0,14570.0,13540.0,15420.0,12380.0,12690.0,28410.0,17780.0,12320.0,14230.0,12580.0,12410.0,12660.0,12520.0,13820.0,14180.0,14960.0,26470.0,29230.0,14120.0,15940.0,15210.0,13880.0,14270.0,13840.0,14510.0,14310.0,14580.0,14430.0,31520.0,24760.0,14340.0,16430.0,15720.0,14590.0,14320.0,14680.0,14540.0,14380.0,14610.0,15240.0,34530.0,20570.0,14320.0,16790.0,14430.0,14660.0,14340.0,14590.0,14480.0,15310.0,15580.0,30760.0,29180.0,15420.0,17640.0,16930.0,15380.0,15670.0,17590.0,17120.0,15780.0,16340.0,16680.0,37540.0,26660.0,16430.0,18720.0,17930.0,16390.0,16720.0,16410.0,16680.0,16540.0,17320.0,17610.0,43470.0,22980.0,17430.0,20030.0,17690.0,17420.0,17610.0,17430.0,17700.0,17520.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9820.0,8930.0,9590.0,9210.0,9750.0,14120.0,10730.0,9540.0,9280.0,9740.0,9310.0,9580.0,10120.0,8950.0,9860.0,9730.0,11050.0,14680.0,10040.0,9850.0,9600.0,10110.0,9580.0,9900.0,9750.0,8760.0,9900.0,9350.0,12310.0,12850.0,9650.0,9720.0,9420.0,9830.0,9510.0,9680.0,9520.0,8490.0,12400.0,9100.0,13820.0,10150.0,9380.0,9450.0,9120.0,9560.0,9230.0,9400.0,9750.0,9150.0,11200.0,14100.0,14950.0,9300.0,9600.0,9580.0,9300.0,9720.0,9400.0,9620.0,9250.0,8200.0,9100.0,12050.0,11500.0,8800.0,9150.0,9080.0,8750.0,9200.0,8900.0,9050.0,8900.0,8050.0,8850.0,13100.0,9450.0,8600.0,8900.0,8850.0,8620.0,8980.0,8720.0,8840.0,10100.0,7850.0,11020.0,12380.0,8650.0,8400.0,8620.0,8580.0,8420.0,15850.0,12800.0,10580.0,8520.0,7950.0,12300.0,10300.0,8380.0,8120.0,8400.0,8350.0,8080.0,8510.0,8230.0,8380.0,8220.0,7300.0,12700.0,8320.0,8050.0,7820.0,8080.0,8010.0,7840.0,8180.0,7910.0,8030.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5400.0,5800.0,8200.0,7000.0,5600.0,5700.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,5200.0,5100.0,5300.0,5600.0,7300.0,8500.0,5900.0,5500.0,5900.0,5200.0,5100.0,5300.0,5300.0,5200.0,5500.0,5900.0,8000.0,8600.0,5800.0,5700.0,6200.0,7000.0,7400.0,6300.0,6200.0,6800.0,5800.0,6200.0,8700.0,8900.0,6000.0,5900.0,6600.0,5900.0,5800.0,5900.0,6000.0,5900.0,6700.0,8300.0,9300.0,6600.0,6900.0,6200.0,6200.0,6700.0,6100.0,6200.0,6100.0,6000.0,6500.0,8700.0,9200.0,6400.0,7000.0,6300.0,6200.0,6300.0,6100.0,6300.0,6300.0,6200.0,7000.0,9400.0,8800.0,6500.0,7200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6300.0,6400.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,8700.0,9600.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,6800.0,6600.0,7200.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,9800.0,10200.0,7300.0,7600.0,7000.0,6800.0,6900.0,6900.0,7000.0,7100.0,7100.0,7000.0,10600.0,8200.0,7300.0,7700.0,7100.0,7000.0,7000.0,7100.0,7000.0,7200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[9200.0,9000.0,9300.0,9100.0,9400.0,13800.0,10200.0,9300.0,9100.0,9400.0,9200.0,9000.0,9800.0,9600.0,9900.0,10100.0,14200.0,14000.0,10500.0,10100.0,9900.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,10400.0,10200.0,10500.0,10700.0,15200.0,14800.0,10900.0,10600.0,10400.0,10800.0,16800.0,12500.0,11000.0,10800.0,11200.0,11400.0,16200.0,12000.0,11300.0,11100.0,11000.0,11400.0,11200.0,11000.0,11800.0,11600.0,12000.0,17800.0,17200.0,12500.0,12200.0,12000.0,12300.0,12100.0,12400.0,12000.0,12800.0,12600.0,13000.0,18800.0,18200.0,13500.0,13200.0,18000.0,13800.0,13500.0,13200.0,13000.0,13800.0,13600.0,14000.0,19800.0,15000.0,14500.0,14200.0,14000.0,14300.0,14100.0,14400.0,14000.0,14800.0,14600.0,21800.0,21200.0,15500.0,15200.0,20500.0,15800.0,15500.0,15200.0,15600.0,15300.0,16000.0,16200.0,23800.0,23200.0,16800.0,16500.0,16200.0,16000.0,16400.0,16100.0,16500.0,16200.0,17000.0,24500.0,24800.0,17500.0,17200.0,17000.0,16800.0,17100.0,16900.0,17300.0,17000.0,16800.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1600.0,1632.0,1760.0,1600.0,1648.0,2400.0,2000.0,1600.0,2080.0,1840.0,1680.0,1840.0,2436.0,2016.0,1680.0,1714.0,1982.0,2268.0,1730.0,1848.0,2150.0,1848.0,1680.0,2016.0,1760.0,1795.0,1760.0,1795.0,2200.0,2112.0,1760.0,2112.0,2112.0,2024.0,1901.0,1760.0,1850.0,1887.0,3330.0,2775.0,2498.0,2128.0,1850.0,2220.0,2220.0,1906.0,1998.0,1850.0,2535.0,2048.0,2438.0,2574.0,2886.0,2145.0,2243.0,2496.0,2106.0,2925.0,2340.0,2048.0,2255.0,2091.0,2050.0,2563.0,2460.0,2050.0,2460.0,3178.0,2870.0,2214.0,2091.0,2050.0,2150.0,2365.0,2193.0,2903.0,2365.0,2215.0,2688.0,2408.0,2473.0,2795.0,2688.0,2473.0,2363.0,2250.0,2588.0,3038.0,2295.0,3038.0,3150.0,2700.0,2588.0,5400.0,4725.0,4275.0,4046.0,3689.0,4998.0,4403.0,3689.0,4165.0,3332.0,2975.0,3094.0,4046.0,3213.0,3689.0,4284.0,3276.0,4410.0,3402.0,3024.0,3276.0,3024.0,2646.0,2898.0,3906.0,3024.0,2722.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,12000.0,4200.0,2900.0,2850.0,3100.0,3000.0,3600.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3300.0,9500.0,14000.0,3800.0,3200.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,3700.0,3600.0,13000.0,11500.0,3900.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,6500.0,4200.0,12500.0,10500.0,4200.0,3900.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,5200.0,16000.0,18500.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5000.0,4800.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,5600.0,19000.0,22000.0,5800.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,5600.0,5400.0,5900.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,15000.0,12500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,5500.0,4300.0,4200.0,14000.0,16500.0,4700.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4900.0,3900.0,3800.0,13000.0,11500.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4000.0,4400.0,3700.0,3600.0,12500.0,8500.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,3800.0,4200.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[39800.0,36800.0,40200.0,42500.0,72000.0,49500.0,45500.0,43000.0,50500.0,43500.0,44500.0,41500.0,42500.0,39000.0,43000.0,44500.0,72500.0,49500.0,47500.0,45500.0,53000.0,47000.0,47500.0,44500.0,45000.0,41500.0,45500.0,47500.0,78000.0,52500.0,50000.0,48000.0,55500.0,49500.0,50000.0,47000.0,47500.0,44000.0,52500.0,50500.0,86000.0,56500.0,52500.0,50500.0,57500.0,51500.0,52000.0,48500.0,54000.0,49500.0,61000.0,105000.0,74000.0,61500.0,58000.0,67000.0,63000.0,59000.0,60000.0,55000.0,56000.0,51000.0,57000.0,101000.0,70000.0,58000.0,54500.0,65000.0,59000.0,56000.0,56500.0,52000.0,54000.0,49000.0,55000.0,96000.0,66000.0,55000.0,59000.0,54000.0,60000.0,55000.0,55000.0,51000.0,53000.0,48000.0,100000.0,64000.0,57000.0,57000.0,60000.0,55000.0,61000.0,68000.0,58000.0,53000.0,55000.0,50000.0,104000.0,66000.0,60000.0,59000.0,64000.0,58000.0,63000.0,62000.0,60000.0,56000.0,57000.0,51500.0,108000.0,69000.0,62000.0,65000.0,60000.0,60000.0,65000.0,63000.0,62000.0,57000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1180.0,1150.0,1300.0,1250.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[418.0,382.0,431.0,457.0,468.0,794.0,447.0,403.0,432.0,452.0,436.0,376.0,441.0,402.0,452.0,476.0,543.0,801.0,413.0,424.0,455.0,471.0,458.0,392.0,463.0,422.0,475.0,503.0,708.0,701.0,434.0,442.0,478.0,493.0,474.0,412.0,481.0,438.0,493.0,521.0,874.0,586.0,452.0,461.0,497.0,512.0,495.0,428.0,501.0,455.0,510.0,641.0,878.0,556.0,468.0,477.0,514.0,531.0,512.0,441.0,517.0,471.0,529.0,832.0,735.0,573.0,484.0,496.0,534.0,551.0,531.0,462.0,504.0,459.0,515.0,968.0,561.0,559.0,472.0,483.0,521.0,537.0,517.0,449.0,486.0,442.0,612.0,824.0,527.0,539.0,454.0,464.0,501.0,518.0,498.0,432.0,471.0,429.0,742.0,635.0,512.0,523.0,441.0,451.0,487.0,503.0,484.0,417.0,463.0,421.0,826.0,516.0,503.0,512.0,434.0,443.0,476.0,492.0,472.0,408.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1700.0,2450.0,2150.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,2350.0,2500.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1800.0,2550.0,2300.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1850.0,1900.0,2700.0,2050.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2300.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,1950.0,1900.0,2050.0,3000.0,2850.0,2150.0,2050.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1950.0,2050.0,1950.0,1900.0,2050.0,2900.0,2250.0,2000.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,2100.0,2050.0,2150.0,2050.0,2000.0,2850.0,3000.0,2250.0,2100.0,2150.0,2500.0,2200.0,2700.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,3050.0,2900.0,2200.0,2100.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0,2150.0,2250.0,2150.0,2100.0,3000.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,3920.0,3880.0,4278.0,3600.0,3600.0,4080.0,4200.0,4200.0,3800.0,4095.0,3900.0,3900.0,3822.0,4350.0,4171.0,3510.0,3510.0,3978.0,4095.0,4095.0,3705.0,3885.0,3700.0,3700.0,3626.0,4127.0,3957.0,3330.0,3330.0,3774.0,3885.0,3885.0,3515.0,3675.0,3500.0,3500.0,3430.0,3904.0,3255.0,3150.0,3150.0,3570.0,3675.0,3675.0,3325.0,3780.0,3600.0,3600.0,4057.0,4016.0,3348.0,3240.0,3240.0,3672.0,3780.0,3780.0,3420.0,3465.0,3300.0,3300.0,3719.0,3681.0,3069.0,2970.0,2970.0,3366.0,3465.0,3465.0,3135.0,3150.0,3000.0,3000.0,3381.0,2910.0,2790.0,2700.0,2700.0,3060.0,3150.0,3150.0,2850.0,2940.0,2800.0,3220.0,3156.0,2716.0,2604.0,2520.0,2520.0,2856.0,2940.0,2940.0,2660.0,2835.0,2700.0,3105.0,3043.0,2619.0,2511.0,2430.0,2430.0,2754.0,2835.0,2835.0,2565.0,2573.0,2450.0,2818.0,2401.0,2377.0,2279.0,2205.0,2205.0,2499.0,2573.0,2573.0,2328.0]}},{"title":"Adele discography","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Adele discography\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[99243,76268,55267,40944,50453,45253,40236,32519,33037,29172,30395,35307,31988,45642,31083,20229,20333,19488,19801,18602,17078,18156,19897,19907,18579,15309,16150,15032,17794,14429,15221,16054,14882,14936,15481,15211,16396,14378,15552,16643,18174,14892,14741,15953,18087,20458,15845,17410,19855,18216,16300,24049,32861,20910,16738,17268,15364,31061,18743,16480,19683,15835,18637,16711,18860,13889,17154,16120,19637,167193,167448,73601,51332,33371,28091,22095,23536,19578,24370,25842,18197,23640,92734,20041,20058,23423,19144,19961,17806,14694,15365,15739,15990,15641,16837,15383,16468,18873,15569,16379,15571,13524,13553,17948,17850,13685,14619,12856,13298,14334,13511,10285,10653,10275,10903,12195,11254,17579,11871,10628],"flat_reference_value":16946.2660975119,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[95000.0,102000.0,83000.0,69000.0,63000.0,58000.0,55000.0,53000.0,50000.0,49000.0,52000.0,55000.0,49000.0,90000.0,60000.0,46000.0,41000.0,42000.0,38000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,27000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,32000.0,26000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,35000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,30000.0,140000.0,220000.0,130000.0,85000.0,80000.0,57000.0,48000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,50000.0,35000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,37000.0,32000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[165000.0,148000.0,95000.0,72000.0,78000.0,68000.0,58000.0,52000.0,46000.0,44000.0,47000.0,51000.0,48000.0,105000.0,62000.0,45000.0,41000.0,46000.0,44000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,31000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,36000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,44000.0,32000.0,28000.0,29000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,185000.0,285000.0,115000.0,68000.0,54000.0,39000.0,32000.0,30000.0,27000.0,34000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,38000.0,28000.0,25000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,36000.0,21000.0,18000.0,23000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,13000.0,14000.0,14500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[58200.0,48400.0,38100.0,31500.0,29200.0,28600.0,25100.0,23800.0,22100.0,21400.0,22700.0,24900.0,22300.0,41800.0,26500.0,21200.0,19400.0,21800.0,18200.0,16500.0,15300.0,15100.0,15900.0,17400.0,16200.0,14800.0,14200.0,13700.0,14100.0,13300.0,12900.0,13100.0,12400.0,12800.0,13400.0,14600.0,14100.0,13200.0,12900.0,17800.0,15300.0,13800.0,12700.0,12500.0,12200.0,13000.0,13600.0,14800.0,13900.0,15100.0,13400.0,14200.0,18600.0,14900.0,13600.0,13100.0,13500.0,28400.0,18200.0,16400.0,15100.0,13800.0,13500.0,13200.0,13900.0,13100.0,12800.0,13300.0,21500.0,84200.0,146000.0,76500.0,42100.0,38400.0,28200.0,23500.0,21800.0,21100.0,26400.0,20200.0,18700.0,19400.0,27800.0,24900.0,20400.0,24100.0,18900.0,17200.0,16500.0,15800.0,15400.0,15900.0,15100.0,15600.0,16800.0,17900.0,16500.0,16100.0,15400.0,14800.0,14600.0,15200.0,16800.0,28100.0,20400.0,17200.0,18500.0,17100.0,14300.0,13700.0,13100.0,12600.0,12400.0,12100.0,11800.0,12200.0,11900.0,12300.0,12800.0,13500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[135000.0,125000.0,105000.0,95000.0,88000.0,85000.0,80000.0,72000.0,66000.0,64000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,88000.0,62000.0,55000.0,52000.0,53000.0,50000.0,46000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,34000.0,85000.0,135000.0,90000.0,72000.0,65000.0,55000.0,50000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,44000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,31000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[170000.0,165000.0,130000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,120000.0,75000.0,60000.0,56000.0,55000.0,55000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,47000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,47000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,150000.0,230000.0,115000.0,90000.0,75000.0,60000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[55000.0,48000.0,32000.0,26000.0,31000.0,38000.0,27000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0,42000.0,24000.0,16000.0,14000.0,20000.0,19000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13000.0,16000.0,13000.0,14000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,13000.0,11000.0,12000.0,10000.0,34000.0,14000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,13000.0,11000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,21000.0,13000.0,12000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,13000.0,130000.0,260000.0,85000.0,95000.0,32000.0,26000.0,22000.0,20000.0,30000.0,48000.0,18000.0,16000.0,21000.0,42000.0,26000.0,19000.0,31000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,18000.0,15000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,45000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,14000.0,10000.0,12000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,12000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[48000.0,39000.0,34000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,58000.0,26000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,20000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16500.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,15000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14000.0,19000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0,15500.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13000.0,14000.0,14500.0,38000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,18000.0,95000.0,175000.0,85000.0,42000.0,24000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,19000.0,26000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,15000.0,15500.0,16500.0,15000.0,16500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15000.0,28000.0,18000.0,24000.0,20000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,11500.0,11000.0,12500.0,14000.0,12000.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[780000.0,980000.0,720000.0,540000.0,470000.0,760000.0,520000.0,430000.0,380000.0,350000.0,340000.0,320000.0,260000.0,430000.0,280000.0,235000.0,225000.0,215000.0,205000.0,200000.0,215000.0,235000.0,250000.0,265000.0,245000.0,235000.0,225000.0,215000.0,210000.0,205000.0,200000.0,205000.0,215000.0,230000.0,250000.0,270000.0,250000.0,240000.0,230000.0,290000.0,265000.0,240000.0,230000.0,235000.0,250000.0,270000.0,300000.0,320000.0,275000.0,265000.0,260000.0,270000.0,480000.0,320000.0,275000.0,265000.0,280000.0,560000.0,340000.0,300000.0,285000.0,280000.0,285000.0,295000.0,305000.0,315000.0,320000.0,335000.0,380000.0,1450000.0,2400000.0,1250000.0,720000.0,800000.0,600000.0,720000.0,520000.0,450000.0,420000.0,400000.0,390000.0,400000.0,520000.0,460000.0,400000.0,390000.0,370000.0,360000.0,355000.0,365000.0,380000.0,390000.0,375000.0,380000.0,400000.0,425000.0,385000.0,380000.0,360000.0,355000.0,355000.0,365000.0,380000.0,395000.0,405000.0,420000.0,560000.0,380000.0,320000.0,310000.0,295000.0,285000.0,285000.0,285000.0,295000.0,305000.0,295000.0,295000.0,310000.0,325000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[160000.0,190000.0,110000.0,85000.0,70000.0,60000.0,55000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,52000.0,50000.0,55000.0,100000.0,55000.0,45000.0,42000.0,48000.0,60000.0,38000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,36000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,80000.0,60000.0,45000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,45000.0,350000.0,450000.0,220000.0,150000.0,130000.0,90000.0,70000.0,60000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,60000.0,65000.0,90000.0,70000.0,60000.0,55000.0,50000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,43000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,45000.0,80000.0,50000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[24000.0,26000.0,20000.0,18000.0,16500.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13500.0,11000.0,18500.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,14500.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,8200.0,9200.0,7800.0,7200.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6600.0,6600.0,6200.0,6200.0,6600.0,6000.0,7000.0,5600.0,5500.0,5500.0,6500.0,5600.0,5500.0,6600.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,5500.0,6000.0,5400.0,5000.0,7600.0,5000.0,5200.0,4800.0,4800.0,8600.0,5200.0,5200.0,5000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,6800.0,5000.0,5600.0,22000.0,32000.0,24000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,14500.0,13500.0,20500.0,14000.0,11200.0,11000.0,11000.0,10200.0,9200.0,14200.0,10200.0,9200.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8600.0,8500.0,8500.0,8600.0,8600.0,8200.0,12200.0,9200.0,8600.0,8500.0,8500.0,9200.0,15200.0,13800.0,9000.0,11200.0,8200.0,6600.0,7800.0,6100.0,6000.0,6100.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6100.0,6400.0,8200.0,6600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[185000.0,235000.0,165000.0,115000.0,150000.0,95000.0,75000.0,58000.0,95000.0,125000.0,105000.0,48000.0,62000.0,135000.0,85000.0,78000.0,70000.0,105000.0,85000.0,50000.0,165000.0,42000.0,34000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,18000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,17000.0,22000.0,23000.0,27000.0,30000.0,38000.0,27000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,20000.0,24000.0,23000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,35000.0,220000.0,430000.0,150000.0,85000.0,55000.0,50000.0,100000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,44000.0,52000.0,38000.0,30000.0,32000.0,55000.0,36000.0,40000.0,58000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,42000.0,48000.0,35000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,27000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,35000.0,130000.0,32000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,15000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[512000.0,438000.0,324000.0,109000.0,76000.0,61000.0,70000.0,58000.0,58000.0,69000.0,72000.0,79000.0,72000.0,131000.0,113000.0,67000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,53000.0,54000.0,61000.0,58000.0,66000.0,65000.0,119000.0,101000.0,61000.0,52000.0,49000.0,72000.0,48000.0,49000.0,56000.0,53000.0,60000.0,57000.0,94000.0,82000.0,51000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,48000.0,51000.0,56000.0,67000.0,55000.0,47000.0,43000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,42000.0,44000.0,51000.0,52000.0,44000.0,42000.0,58000.0,48000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,86000.0,145000.0,735000.0,366000.0,194000.0,255000.0,228000.0,183000.0,112000.0,88000.0,80000.0,79000.0,82000.0,87000.0,138000.0,116000.0,91000.0,133000.0,115000.0,76000.0,67000.0,62000.0,59000.0,61000.0,64000.0,68000.0,83000.0,74000.0,72000.0,99000.0,89000.0,65000.0,58000.0,55000.0,59000.0,57000.0,58000.0,62000.0,73000.0,67000.0,69000.0,94000.0,85000.0,63000.0,57000.0,54000.0,52000.0,53000.0,56000.0,61000.0,72000.0,68000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[210000.0,190000.0,150000.0,120000.0,110000.0,100000.0,90000.0,85000.0,80000.0,80000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,120000.0,85000.0,70000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,55000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,55000.0,150000.0,210000.0,110000.0,80000.0,75000.0,65000.0,60000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[400000.0,300000.0,230000.0,190000.0,180000.0,165000.0,135000.0,120000.0,108000.0,105000.0,120000.0,112000.0,85000.0,72000.0,55000.0,47000.0,44000.0,41000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,46000.0,37000.0,46000.0,41000.0,36000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,31000.0,29000.0,31000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,30000.0,37000.0,31000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,22000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,38000.0,150000.0,310000.0,240000.0,160000.0,220000.0,235000.0,130000.0,90000.0,78000.0,65000.0,59000.0,54000.0,57000.0,83000.0,68000.0,112000.0,107000.0,122000.0,84000.0,74000.0,69000.0,64000.0,59000.0,58000.0,62000.0,80000.0,69000.0,74000.0,67000.0,59000.0,54000.0,57000.0,54000.0,52000.0,64000.0,59000.0,58000.0,76000.0,65000.0,46000.0,58000.0,46000.0,41000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,46000.0,49000.0,55000.0,68000.0,48000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[48000.0,69000.0,52000.0,43000.0,39000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,34000.0,41000.0,35000.0,33000.0,59000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,45000.0,30000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,24000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,18000.0,15000.0,15000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,16000.0,15000.0,18000.0,30000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,26000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,24000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,26000.0,118000.0,165000.0,65000.0,46000.0,56000.0,38000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,29000.0,26000.0,28000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,25000.0,33000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,23000.0,23000.0,28000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,31000.0,27000.0,26000.0,37000.0,26000.0,22000.0,25000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,17000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[14000.0,9000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6500.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,5600.0,5400.0,6000.0,6500.0,16000.0,9000.0,6800.0,6000.0,6200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,5600.0,5200.0,5500.0,5000.0,4700.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4800.0,4700.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,4200.0,12000.0,22000.0,15000.0,11000.0,8000.0,7000.0,8500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,7000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0]}},{"title":"Morgan Tsvangirai","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Morgan Tsvangirai\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5027,7976,7315,7087,6440,8087,8427,6964,6873,5654,6884,6163,8843,7750,6750,5724,5894,4861,5825,7624,10017,8383,96359,7688,17330,104307,11056,6507,5800,7581,15012,14876,3619,3636,3857,5875,6759,4603,3748,3738,4647,5046,4679,4359,28006,4225,3760,3724,3764,4321,4506,6144,4825,4779,4432,4593,4187,3704,4296,3762,4952,4305,4720,4341,3834,3868,4546,4184,3748,3482,3745,3658,4126,4586,4549,4141,3537,3857,3819,4555,3966,3865,5235,3839,4209,4260,4638,4691,4185,7260,4979,11965,5703,3640,3680,3427,4087,4104,3574,4071,3828,3975,3450,3695,3413,3482,3985,3455,3885,4339,5128,4045,4393,3755,3198,3433,3231,24546,4173,3763],"flat_reference_value":17063.602088534208,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6800.0,6500.0,7200.0,6900.0,7400.0,12500.0,9800.0,7500.0,8200.0,7100.0,6900.0,6200.0,7000.0,7500.0,7300.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,8500.0,9100.0,12500.0,10000.0,68000.0,19000.0,18000.0,350000.0,48000.0,22000.0,16000.0,14000.0,24000.0,21000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,8200.0,10000.0,14000.0,8500.0,7800.0,7600.0,7200.0,7100.0,7400.0,9500.0,7100.0,6900.0,6200.0,7200.0,10000.0,6900.0,6100.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,6600.0,6700.0,6500.0,6200.0,5700.0,6400.0,9100.0,6500.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,5900.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,5900.0,5400.0,6100.0,8500.0,6400.0,5800.0,5700.0,5800.0,5900.0,6200.0,7000.0,5900.0,5700.0,5200.0,6000.0,8400.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,6300.0,7600.0,13000.0,8000.0,6000.0,5700.0,5100.0,6500.0,8200.0,5900.0,5500.0,5500.0,5400.0,5500.0,5800.0,5700.0,5600.0,5400.0,5000.0,5600.0,7800.0,5700.0,5400.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,5500.0,5500.0,5400.0,5200.0,4800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4800.0,4600.0,4900.0,5400.0,5100.0,16500.0,9800.0,6200.0,5300.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,4800.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,5400.0,5600.0,6800.0,6500.0,7200.0,115000.0,18500.0,15200.0,325000.0,29000.0,11500.0,9800.0,9200.0,18500.0,22000.0,7800.0,6100.0,5600.0,4900.0,8900.0,7400.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,36000.0,6800.0,4900.0,4300.0,4400.0,5200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,5600.0,5800.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,4600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3600.0,4300.0,4100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,4200.0,9800.0,4900.0,3600.0,3400.0,3100.0,3300.0,3800.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3500.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[27400.0,26100.0,25300.0,28900.0,30200.0,52400.0,34100.0,31000.0,33500.0,26800.0,25900.0,24200.0,25800.0,24900.0,27300.0,26100.0,28400.0,27900.0,29800.0,32500.0,46200.0,33100.0,218000.0,62400.0,54800.0,562000.0,98500.0,42100.0,38600.0,41200.0,64800.0,51200.0,31400.0,28100.0,26300.0,23500.0,21900.0,29800.0,22100.0,19400.0,20800.0,18900.0,19500.0,18200.0,21400.0,17800.0,18600.0,16900.0,17200.0,21500.0,18400.0,16900.0,16100.0,15400.0,15900.0,15100.0,14700.0,14200.0,14900.0,13800.0,14100.0,17800.0,15200.0,13900.0,13400.0,12900.0,13600.0,13100.0,12800.0,12400.0,13500.0,12200.0,12600.0,15900.0,13700.0,12800.0,12100.0,11800.0,12400.0,12000.0,11600.0,11400.0,11900.0,11100.0,11500.0,14600.0,12800.0,11900.0,11700.0,12300.0,14500.0,22400.0,15100.0,11800.0,11400.0,10800.0,11100.0,13900.0,11700.0,10900.0,10600.0,10200.0,10800.0,10500.0,10100.0,9800.0,10200.0,9500.0,9800.0,12600.0,10400.0,9900.0,9600.0,9200.0,9500.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,9200.0,8700.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[8500.0,8200.0,8600.0,8300.0,8000.0,9500.0,10500.0,8800.0,8200.0,8400.0,8100.0,7200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7900.0,7500.0,7700.0,7400.0,7300.0,8000.0,7600.0,7500.0,22000.0,11000.0,10500.0,165000.0,24000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9800.0,14500.0,13000.0,8500.0,7800.0,7400.0,6600.0,7600.0,8800.0,7000.0,6600.0,6500.0,6200.0,6100.0,6300.0,8600.0,6400.0,6100.0,5400.0,5800.0,6600.0,5700.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5600.0,5600.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,4800.0,5100.0,5900.0,5100.0,4900.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4100.0,4400.0,5200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,4000.0,4700.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,4400.0,5200.0,4100.0,3800.0,3700.0,3400.0,3600.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3700.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,16000.0,17000.0,19000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,13500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15000.0,17000.0,17000.0,95000.0,24000.0,24000.0,260000.0,30000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,30000.0,28000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,11500.0,15000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,22000.0,11000.0,10500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,7800.0,7800.0,7800.0,7200.0,7800.0,8000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7200.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7200.0,7000.0,7200.0,7500.0,8500.0,14000.0,8500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6300.0,6800.0,6800.0,6800.0,6500.0,6500.0,6300.0,6300.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6300.0,6200.0,6500.0,6200.0,6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,5900.0,6000.0,6000.0,5700.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9200.0,9000.0,9400.0,8900.0,9300.0,10500.0,13000.0,14500.0,12500.0,10500.0,10800.0,12000.0,10200.0,10500.0,11000.0,10400.0,10800.0,11200.0,13000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12800.0,45000.0,17000.0,19000.0,205000.0,42000.0,18000.0,16000.0,17500.0,23000.0,17500.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,15500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10800.0,10800.0,11000.0,11500.0,24000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10200.0,10800.0,9800.0,8800.0,8600.0,8800.0,9000.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,8800.0,9200.0,8800.0,9200.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,8000.0,8300.0,8100.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8400.0,8100.0,8600.0,9000.0,8400.0,8100.0,8100.0,8400.0,8300.0,8200.0,8600.0,8800.0,9400.0,9000.0,10200.0,9200.0,9200.0,9400.0,9800.0,11500.0,14000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10200.0,11000.0,11200.0,10000.0,8800.0,8200.0,7900.0,7800.0,7900.0,7800.0,7700.0,7500.0,7400.0,7500.0,7400.0,8000.0,7300.0,7100.0,7000.0,7000.0,7100.0,7100.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[5421.0,5113.0,5764.0,5389.0,5612.0,6453.0,7189.0,6724.0,5931.0,5587.0,5344.0,4762.0,4985.0,5230.0,5518.0,5294.0,5431.0,5627.0,5843.0,6215.0,6582.0,8234.0,34217.0,14892.0,18245.0,274536.0,54831.0,22147.0,15203.0,11876.0,17942.0,19865.0,10834.0,9127.0,7953.0,6894.0,6542.0,9814.0,6218.0,5789.0,5523.0,5184.0,5347.0,5621.0,5398.0,5112.0,4987.0,4423.0,4873.0,7235.0,4982.0,5214.0,4765.0,4328.0,4489.0,4652.0,4417.0,4283.0,4159.0,3784.0,4125.0,5873.0,3987.0,3762.0,3598.0,3345.0,3512.0,3689.0,3421.0,3298.0,3154.0,2873.0,3234.0,4567.0,3178.0,2984.0,2853.0,2712.0,2894.0,3045.0,2821.0,2698.0,2573.0,2341.0,2687.0,3812.0,2745.0,2598.0,2512.0,2689.0,3425.0,6128.0,3874.0,2832.0,2614.0,2358.0,2589.0,3541.0,2498.0,2376.0,2284.0,2153.0,2297.0,2412.0,2268.0,2149.0,2083.0,1897.0,2134.0,2987.0,2089.0,1976.0,1892.0,1785.0,1923.0,2014.0,1876.0,1798.0,1724.0,1589.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5100.0,5600.0,8200.0,9000.0,6000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5600.0,5000.0,5800.0,5600.0,5900.0,6100.0,6400.0,6200.0,6000.0,5800.0,6600.0,11000.0,110000.0,15000.0,24000.0,435000.0,48000.0,17000.0,13000.0,11000.0,26000.0,19000.0,11000.0,9500.0,10500.0,8500.0,7200.0,17000.0,7500.0,6200.0,5800.0,5500.0,5600.0,6000.0,12500.0,6500.0,6200.0,5200.0,5000.0,11000.0,5200.0,4400.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,3900.0,3400.0,3400.0,8500.0,3600.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2600.0,2700.0,7200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,6400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,3400.0,2800.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,5600.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,5000.0,1900.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4400.0,4600.0,4300.0,5800.0,5000.0,4700.0,4900.0,5200.0,4200.0,4700.0,4400.0,4900.0,4600.0,5000.0,4800.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,5600.0,68000.0,30000.0,24000.0,620000.0,110000.0,45000.0,28000.0,23000.0,32000.0,35000.0,21000.0,17000.0,15000.0,13000.0,14000.0,24000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,12000.0,19000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,13000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7800.0,7400.0,7000.0,7200.0,6800.0,6200.0,6500.0,9000.0,6200.0,5900.0,5700.0,5400.0,5600.0,5800.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,5200.0,7200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,3900.0,4300.0,6200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,5600.0,10500.0,6500.0,4700.0,4200.0,3800.0,4000.0,5400.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,4400.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0],"meta/muse-ember":[21000.0,27000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,18000.0,24000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,19000.0,22000.0,26000.0,62000.0,30000.0,32000.0,320000.0,140000.0,38000.0,24000.0,21000.0,30000.0,27000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,26000.0,24000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,14000.0,15000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,12000.0,10000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9000.0,7000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,7000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,5000.0,6000.0,7000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,7000.0,10000.0,13000.0,11000.0,7000.0,6000.0,5000.0,6000.0,6000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,6000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,4000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,4000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4800.0,4600.0,5000.0,4400.0,5200.0,30000.0,15000.0,9500.0,6800.0,5800.0,6200.0,4600.0,21000.0,8500.0,7200.0,6500.0,6000.0,6800.0,5600.0,6300.0,5800.0,9500.0,27000.0,13500.0,14000.0,350000.0,58000.0,22000.0,17500.0,13500.0,26000.0,18500.0,12500.0,10500.0,9500.0,8200.0,6800.0,28000.0,9000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6300.0,5500.0,6000.0,5700.0,5500.0,5800.0,4800.0,5200.0,22000.0,6500.0,6800.0,5800.0,5000.0,4600.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,4200.0,4700.0,18000.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,3700.0,4200.0,16000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3300.0,3900.0,14000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,5500.0,13000.0,6500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3200.0,3500.0,12000.0,3400.0,6500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,2900.0,3200.0,10000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2600.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[8900.0,8100.0,8700.0,11800.0,12900.0,11100.0,9600.0,9200.0,10400.0,11300.0,9400.0,8700.0,8000.0,7300.0,8100.0,7500.0,7400.0,8000.0,8200.0,8600.0,8300.0,8000.0,18800.0,13900.0,8200.0,7300.0,7900.0,7600.0,8000.0,9500.0,16800.0,26500.0,11800.0,8800.0,8200.0,9300.0,12800.0,8200.0,8400.0,7600.0,7500.0,8000.0,8200.0,8800.0,8000.0,7700.0,7900.0,8100.0,7600.0,6900.0,8100.0,7000.0,6600.0,6900.0,7200.0,7500.0,7000.0,6900.0,7100.0,7300.0,6900.0,6300.0,7000.0,6400.0,6300.0,6600.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,6700.0,6800.0,7100.0,6700.0,6000.0,6600.0,6100.0,5900.0,6200.0,6500.0,6700.0,6400.0,6200.0,6400.0,6700.0,6900.0,118000.0,29000.0,10500.0,8200.0,7600.0,14500.0,11500.0,8600.0,8000.0,8200.0,8800.0,7700.0,10500.0,8100.0,7000.0,6900.0,7200.0,7400.0,7800.0,7500.0,7300.0,7400.0,7900.0,7700.0,9000.0,7900.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,7400.0,7800.0,7500.0,7400.0,7500.0,7900.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,33000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,48000.0,38000.0,42000.0,400000.0,100000.0,55000.0,45000.0,45000.0,60000.0,55000.0,38000.0,33000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,18000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[620.0,560.0,520.0,480.0,510.0,460.0,530.0,660.0,600.0,550.0,510.0,470.0,590.0,550.0,520.0,490.0,530.0,470.0,500.0,460.0,510.0,580.0,1050.0,820.0,700.0,650.0,1300.0,1000.0,1150.0,1600.0,25000.0,14000.0,4200.0,2600.0,1600.0,1200.0,950.0,880.0,800.0,740.0,790.0,700.0,950.0,880.0,800.0,740.0,690.0,640.0,720.0,670.0,610.0,570.0,590.0,540.0,600.0,530.0,560.0,540.0,500.0,480.0,680.0,620.0,1000.0,780.0,740.0,680.0,720.0,650.0,700.0,660.0,630.0,580.0,700.0,660.0,620.0,590.0,570.0,530.0,580.0,530.0,560.0,540.0,510.0,480.0,660.0,610.0,640.0,620.0,580.0,660.0,820.0,1900.0,1100.0,780.0,650.0,600.0,800.0,72000.0,21000.0,8500.0,3200.0,2300.0,1800.0,1500.0,1350.0,1200.0,1050.0,920.0,1000.0,5200.0,1600.0,950.0,780.0,680.0,620.0,560.0,520.0,490.0,460.0,430.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2350.0,2200.0,2600.0,2450.0,2500.0,2700.0,3800.0,4300.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3800.0,8500.0,7000.0,12000.0,62000.0,16000.0,6500.0,5000.0,5500.0,8500.0,17000.0,7000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4000.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3800.0,4500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3300.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3400.0,4200.0,8500.0,5000.0,3500.0,3100.0,2800.0,2800.0,3200.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2500.0,2600.0,2900.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1500.0,1400.0,1450.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1500.0,2200.0,2000.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1800.0,1200.0,1400.0,38000.0,9000.0,3800.0,2300.0,1800.0,1900.0,2200.0,1600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1500.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,920.0,880.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,830.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,830.0,800.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,750.0,740.0,780.0,830.0,780.0,750.0,760.0,740.0,730.0,750.0,720.0,710.0,700.0,700.0,720.0,800.0,730.0,700.0,710.0,690.0,690.0,700.0,680.0,670.0,660.0,650.0,680.0,760.0,700.0,660.0,670.0,650.0,640.0,650.0,630.0,620.0,610.0,600.0,620.0,690.0,630.0,600.0,600.0,580.0,570.0,580.0,560.0,550.0,540.0,530.0]}},{"title":"Browning Hi-Power","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Browning Hi-Power\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[58694,51082,56815,44584,45060,44864,44728,45902,46638,49702,48010,51444,54916,47868,50450,50978,48439,43191,44706,45056,42527,47555,48340,46354,54751,57290,52296,43677,41048,37439,40569,40820,36948,41096,42928,44501,48197,43103,45300,39843,38311,38679,41456,41789,37207,38580,41205,40706,42554,40755,47330,57821,52812,47254,51816,48843,46911,50348,50145,50062,56226,50772,61812,51159,50946,45435,44647,45210,43596,60607,47952,48946,55770,43820,47332,44356,51673,43588,44604,47931,42766,48351,45356,45864,50233,49455,54915,51026,48162,46594,49312,48905,49275,53263,48722,55516,59167,52939,50785,47778,47239,43303,48439,47067,46144,46523,47953,50054,52771,44599,49667,50712,48375,38490,43532,51224,45700,46134,44622,44074],"flat_reference_value":16874.46889149983,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[20500.0,19200.0,20100.0,19600.0,20100.0,21500.0,20800.0,20500.0,19800.0,21000.0,21300.0,21600.0,22400.0,20500.0,21800.0,21000.0,21600.0,22200.0,21900.0,21500.0,21100.0,22800.0,22000.0,22800.0,25000.0,23800.0,24900.0,23500.0,23000.0,22500.0,22700.0,22200.0,21900.0,22600.0,22500.0,23100.0,23700.0,22000.0,24200.0,22900.0,23200.0,23500.0,23900.0,24200.0,23000.0,24000.0,23800.0,24500.0,25000.0,23600.0,27000.0,28400.0,27700.0,28600.0,29100.0,28400.0,27200.0,28400.0,27900.0,28500.0,29600.0,27100.0,28800.0,27900.0,27800.0,27400.0,27700.0,27300.0,26900.0,34500.0,33000.0,30700.0,35500.0,31300.0,31500.0,29700.0,29900.0,29100.0,29000.0,28400.0,27500.0,28700.0,28100.0,28800.0,29600.0,26900.0,28300.0,27100.0,27400.0,27000.0,27300.0,27100.0,26300.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28800.0,26800.0,28100.0,27200.0,27500.0,27100.0,27600.0,27300.0,26500.0,27700.0,27200.0,28000.0,29100.0,26600.0,28200.0,27200.0,27500.0,27100.0,27700.0,27400.0,26500.0,27900.0,27300.0,28200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[46800.0,42900.0,45600.0,43800.0,44500.0,43100.0,45200.0,44900.0,42400.0,44100.0,43700.0,45300.0,47200.0,42100.0,46100.0,44300.0,44800.0,43200.0,45500.0,45100.0,42800.0,44600.0,44200.0,45800.0,47900.0,79500.0,53400.0,46700.0,45900.0,43800.0,45600.0,45200.0,43100.0,44800.0,44100.0,45700.0,47400.0,42300.0,46200.0,44000.0,44900.0,43300.0,45800.0,45400.0,42900.0,44700.0,44300.0,46100.0,48200.0,44600.0,51800.0,56400.0,55200.0,51900.0,52600.0,51400.0,47800.0,49300.0,48900.0,50400.0,53100.0,46800.0,50200.0,47600.0,47900.0,45800.0,47400.0,47100.0,45200.0,61500.0,67800.0,54600.0,76400.0,58900.0,53200.0,48700.0,48100.0,45900.0,47600.0,47200.0,49800.0,52400.0,47500.0,47900.0,49600.0,43800.0,47200.0,44900.0,45300.0,43100.0,44800.0,44200.0,41900.0,43600.0,42800.0,44100.0,45700.0,41900.0,46300.0,42400.0,42100.0,39800.0,41500.0,41100.0,38900.0,40400.0,39700.0,40900.0,42300.0,37600.0,40800.0,38900.0,39400.0,37500.0,39100.0,38700.0,36800.0,38200.0,37400.0,38600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[52100.0,49800.0,51200.0,48700.0,47300.0,45100.0,44200.0,46500.0,47900.0,49400.0,51800.0,53200.0,52900.0,47800.0,48600.0,46200.0,44800.0,43100.0,42700.0,44500.0,45300.0,46800.0,48200.0,49500.0,51200.0,88400.0,68200.0,52300.0,48100.0,44900.0,43800.0,45600.0,46200.0,47500.0,49100.0,50400.0,50100.0,44700.0,46900.0,44200.0,43500.0,41200.0,40800.0,42600.0,43900.0,45100.0,46800.0,48300.0,48900.0,45600.0,51200.0,56800.0,54200.0,49100.0,48200.0,47800.0,46500.0,47900.0,49800.0,51400.0,52600.0,47100.0,48500.0,45800.0,44200.0,42100.0,41500.0,43200.0,44800.0,53400.0,76800.0,66200.0,101500.0,82400.0,62100.0,64300.0,54800.0,48200.0,45100.0,46300.0,45900.0,46700.0,47800.0,48900.0,49800.0,44200.0,45900.0,43400.0,41800.0,39700.0,39100.0,40500.0,41800.0,42900.0,44300.0,45700.0,46800.0,42300.0,43800.0,41500.0,40200.0,38100.0,37600.0,39200.0,40400.0,41600.0,42800.0,44100.0,44800.0,40500.0,42100.0,39800.0,38900.0,36900.0,36200.0,37800.0,38900.0,40100.0,41500.0,42800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,39000.0,42000.0,37000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,35000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[47000.0,45000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,45000.0,46000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,50000.0,43000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,37000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,44000.0,39000.0,38000.0,52000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[27500.0,26000.0,27000.0,25500.0,24800.0,23900.0,23500.0,24600.0,26800.0,27200.0,26000.0,28500.0,28000.0,26500.0,27500.0,25000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23800.0,25200.0,27000.0,31500.0,29000.0,30000.0,30500.0,33000.0,34500.0,29000.0,27500.0,26000.0,25500.0,26500.0,27800.0,27000.0,26500.0,28000.0,27500.0,26000.0,27000.0,25500.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,25000.0,26500.0,26000.0,25500.0,27000.0,28000.0,28500.0,35000.0,38500.0,36000.0,37500.0,34000.0,32500.0,33000.0,33500.0,34000.0,35500.0,33000.0,31000.0,31500.0,30000.0,29000.0,28500.0,28000.0,30500.0,40000.0,47000.0,41500.0,40000.0,45500.0,42000.0,38500.0,35000.0,32000.0,30500.0,29500.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30500.0,29500.0,28000.0,28500.0,27500.0,27000.0,26000.0,25800.0,26200.0,27500.0,27000.0,26500.0,27500.0,27800.0,26500.0,27000.0,28500.0,26000.0,25200.0,25000.0,25500.0,26500.0,26000.0,25500.0,26800.0,27000.0,25800.0,26500.0,27200.0,25500.0,24800.0,24500.0,25000.0,26200.0,25800.0,25000.0,26500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[13100.0,12950.0,13600.0,12700.0,12400.0,12300.0,12800.0,13100.0,12450.0,12900.0,11900.0,10600.0,13600.0,18500.0,14000.0,13300.0,13000.0,12900.0,13300.0,13500.0,13000.0,13400.0,12500.0,11000.0,14200.0,23500.0,20500.0,16200.0,13800.0,13500.0,13900.0,14100.0,13500.0,13900.0,12900.0,11400.0,12600.0,12300.0,12950.0,12250.0,12000.0,11900.0,12250.0,12500.0,11950.0,12350.0,11500.0,10200.0,13100.0,12900.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14200.0,12900.0,13100.0,12500.0,13000.0,12100.0,10800.0,13650.0,13350.0,14050.0,13250.0,13000.0,12900.0,13300.0,13550.0,13000.0,28500.0,23500.0,19500.0,26500.0,20500.0,15100.0,14300.0,14000.0,13900.0,14300.0,14550.0,14000.0,14400.0,13400.0,11900.0,11550.0,11300.0,11850.0,11200.0,11000.0,10900.0,11250.0,11450.0,10950.0,11300.0,10550.0,9350.0,10500.0,10250.0,10800.0,10200.0,10000.0,9900.0,10200.0,10400.0,9950.0,10250.0,9600.0,8500.0,10000.0,9750.0,10250.0,9700.0,9500.0,9400.0,9700.0,9900.0,9450.0,9750.0,9100.0,8100.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[47500.0,46800.0,45600.0,45000.0,44200.0,45900.0,43500.0,43000.0,44200.0,45000.0,46200.0,44800.0,46500.0,45900.0,44800.0,44200.0,44600.0,43500.0,42500.0,42800.0,43600.0,45400.0,45800.0,43900.0,45200.0,46600.0,44300.0,43600.0,43200.0,42800.0,41900.0,41600.0,42600.0,43400.0,45100.0,42900.0,44300.0,43700.0,44600.0,43100.0,42500.0,41900.0,41000.0,40700.0,41700.0,42300.0,43100.0,41800.0,42800.0,42500.0,47900.0,48600.0,47200.0,46000.0,44600.0,44100.0,44800.0,45900.0,47300.0,44900.0,48200.0,47600.0,46300.0,45600.0,45200.0,44700.0,43500.0,43200.0,44100.0,47900.0,48600.0,46200.0,52400.0,49800.0,47600.0,46300.0,46900.0,45400.0,43900.0,43600.0,44300.0,45100.0,45900.0,43700.0,45300.0,44600.0,43900.0,43100.0,42600.0,42000.0,41200.0,40800.0,41500.0,42700.0,43300.0,41600.0,43900.0,43300.0,42600.0,41900.0,41500.0,41000.0,42400.0,40300.0,40800.0,41600.0,42300.0,40700.0,42000.0,41400.0,40700.0,40000.0,39600.0,39100.0,38300.0,38000.0,38600.0,39400.0,40100.0,38500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[7800.0,4950.0,4800.0,4650.0,4700.0,6300.0,4700.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,5900.0,5050.0,5500.0,5150.0,5000.0,4850.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,8700.0,5300.0,5250.0,5720.0,10400.0,9200.0,6550.0,5096.0,5200.0,5096.0,4992.0,5200.0,5408.0,5512.0,5460.0,5280.0,4944.0,4800.0,4656.0,4704.0,4800.0,4704.0,4608.0,4800.0,4992.0,5088.0,5040.0,5940.0,5562.0,6400.0,6750.0,6800.0,7400.0,6800.0,6200.0,6400.0,6600.0,7200.0,5670.0,7050.0,5665.0,5500.0,5335.0,5390.0,5500.0,5390.0,5280.0,5500.0,10700.0,8800.0,7300.0,16800.0,12400.0,9200.0,7500.0,7100.0,6200.0,6076.0,5952.0,6200.0,6448.0,6572.0,6510.0,7800.0,6700.0,5700.0,5529.0,5586.0,5700.0,5586.0,5472.0,5700.0,5928.0,6042.0,5985.0,5830.0,5459.0,5300.0,5141.0,5194.0,5300.0,6700.0,5900.0,5300.0,5512.0,5618.0,5565.0,6300.0,5150.0,5000.0,4850.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5250.0],"meta/muse-ember":[10800.0,9900.0,9700.0,8900.0,8800.0,8700.0,8500.0,8900.0,9100.0,9500.0,9600.0,8100.0,11200.0,10300.0,11800.0,9200.0,9100.0,8900.0,8900.0,9200.0,9500.0,10500.0,12800.0,8400.0,11600.0,10600.0,10300.0,9500.0,9400.0,9200.0,9200.0,9300.0,9800.0,10100.0,10200.0,8600.0,13200.0,12100.0,10800.0,10000.0,9900.0,9700.0,9600.0,9900.0,10300.0,10600.0,10700.0,9100.0,13000.0,11900.0,14400.0,12300.0,11000.0,10300.0,10200.0,10600.0,11000.0,13000.0,13700.0,11100.0,14200.0,12400.0,12100.0,11200.0,11000.0,10800.0,10700.0,11000.0,11500.0,19000.0,17300.0,12100.0,25500.0,26000.0,18900.0,14000.0,12700.0,11300.0,11200.0,11500.0,12000.0,12400.0,12500.0,10600.0,13900.0,12700.0,12400.0,11400.0,11300.0,11100.0,11000.0,11300.0,11800.0,12200.0,12300.0,10400.0,13200.0,12100.0,11800.0,10900.0,10800.0,10500.0,10400.0,10800.0,11200.0,11500.0,11600.0,9900.0,12600.0,11600.0,11200.0,10400.0,10300.0,10100.0,9900.0,10300.0,10700.0,11000.0,11100.0,9400.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[8110.0,8420.0,8580.0,8190.0,7800.0,7250.0,6940.0,6790.0,8030.0,8500.0,8660.0,7020.0,8740.0,9070.0,9240.0,8820.0,8400.0,7810.0,7480.0,7310.0,8650.0,9160.0,9320.0,7560.0,10760.0,16040.0,14360.0,9450.0,9000.0,8370.0,8010.0,7830.0,9270.0,9810.0,9990.0,8100.0,9570.0,9940.0,10120.0,9660.0,9200.0,8560.0,8190.0,8000.0,9480.0,10030.0,10210.0,8280.0,13160.0,14280.0,27830.0,24150.0,17830.0,12830.0,10750.0,10010.0,12440.0,14410.0,16600.0,10870.0,19500.0,16200.0,14440.0,13130.0,12500.0,11630.0,11130.0,10880.0,12880.0,13630.0,13880.0,12940.0,18410.0,22300.0,18820.0,14870.0,15340.0,10970.0,10500.0,10270.0,12150.0,12860.0,13100.0,10620.0,10920.0,11340.0,11550.0,11030.0,10500.0,9770.0,9350.0,9140.0,10820.0,13160.0,12240.0,9450.0,10480.0,10370.0,10560.0,10080.0,9600.0,8930.0,13240.0,10020.0,10380.0,10460.0,13320.0,8640.0,8940.0,9290.0,9460.0,9030.0,8600.0,8000.0,7650.0,7480.0,8860.0,9370.0,9550.0,7740.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[5900.0,5400.0,6100.0,5800.0,5500.0,6300.0,4700.0,4900.0,5200.0,5700.0,7800.0,5600.0,6300.0,5600.0,6300.0,5900.0,5600.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,5300.0,6800.0,6000.0,5500.0,6000.0,7400.0,7600.0,6000.0,5600.0,5000.0,4700.0,4900.0,5200.0,5700.0,5900.0,5300.0,5700.0,5400.0,6300.0,5700.0,5300.0,4800.0,4600.0,5300.0,5000.0,5400.0,5900.0,5200.0,5500.0,5300.0,9000.0,8200.0,7200.0,8000.0,6200.0,5900.0,5600.0,6300.0,8200.0,6800.0,9200.0,6800.0,8000.0,6600.0,6200.0,7000.0,5500.0,5300.0,5400.0,5900.0,6600.0,5800.0,6000.0,6000.0,11500.0,8500.0,6800.0,6600.0,5500.0,5200.0,5500.0,5800.0,6400.0,5800.0,5500.0,5200.0,6000.0,5500.0,5400.0,7800.0,6600.0,5200.0,5300.0,6300.0,5600.0,5100.0,6500.0,5700.0,6300.0,6200.0,5700.0,5400.0,6300.0,5300.0,5500.0,6000.0,7900.0,6000.0,6900.0,6000.0,5900.0,5600.0,5300.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,5200.0,5700.0,5900.0,5300.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1150.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2080.0,2010.0,2200.0,2240.0,2295.0,2350.0,2380.0,2340.0,2260.0,2290.0,2550.0,2160.0,2240.0,2175.0,2330.0,2465.0,2440.0,2500.0,2545.0,2500.0,2400.0,2450.0,2520.0,2310.0,2370.0,2335.0,2480.0,2520.0,2615.0,2640.0,2720.0,2660.0,2555.0,2610.0,2680.0,2455.0,2570.0,2500.0,2685.0,2735.0,2860.0,2920.0,2940.0,2870.0,2760.0,2810.0,2905.0,2650.0,3060.0,2990.0,3320.0,3390.0,3580.0,3750.0,3480.0,3420.0,3300.0,3380.0,3835.0,3150.0,3900.0,3560.0,3820.0,4300.0,4150.0,4220.0,4180.0,4080.0,3920.0,4010.0,4120.0,3760.0,3450.0,3360.0,3600.0,3680.0,4280.0,3930.0,4030.0,3910.0,3750.0,3910.0,4170.0,3560.0,3150.0,3110.0,3290.0,3470.0,3460.0,3520.0,3600.0,3540.0,3520.0,3630.0,3580.0,3260.0,2960.0,2900.0,3090.0,3260.0,3270.0,3320.0,3380.0,3480.0,3210.0,3480.0,3720.0,3050.0,2860.0,2840.0,3010.0,3490.0,3370.0,3240.0,3560.0,3260.0,3180.0,3170.0,3470.0,2980.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1550.0,1480.0,1700.0,1580.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1750.0,1650.0,1800.0,1900.0,1750.0,2200.0,2800.0,2500.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,2000.0,2100.0,1950.0,2150.0,2250.0,2050.0,2050.0,1900.0,2050.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,1950.0,1850.0,2000.0,2050.0,1900.0,1900.0,1750.0,1900.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1850.0,1900.0,1800.0,1950.0,2000.0,1850.0,1950.0,1850.0,2200.0,2500.0,2350.0,2450.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0,1950.0,2050.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1950.0,2000.0,2100.0,3400.0,4800.0,3600.0,3900.0,3500.0,3100.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2650.0,2550.0,2400.0,2550.0,2650.0,2400.0,2500.0,2250.0,2400.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,2200.0,2250.0,2100.0,2250.0,2350.0,2150.0,2100.0,1950.0,2050.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,2050.0,2100.0,1900.0,1950.0,1800.0,1900.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1900.0,1950.0,1800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[9450.0,9180.0,9180.0,9000.0,9000.0,8730.0,8550.0,8730.0,9000.0,9090.0,9270.0,8550.0,9240.0,8976.0,8976.0,8800.0,8800.0,8536.0,8360.0,8536.0,8800.0,8888.0,9064.0,8360.0,8925.0,8670.0,8670.0,8500.0,8500.0,8245.0,8075.0,8245.0,8500.0,8585.0,8755.0,8075.0,8400.0,8160.0,8160.0,8000.0,8000.0,7760.0,7600.0,7760.0,8000.0,8080.0,8240.0,7600.0,9240.0,8976.0,9870.0,11440.0,11880.0,11097.0,10032.0,9816.0,9680.0,9332.0,9517.0,8360.0,8925.0,8670.0,8670.0,8500.0,8500.0,8245.0,8075.0,8245.0,8500.0,8585.0,8755.0,8075.0,7875.0,7650.0,7650.0,7500.0,7500.0,7275.0,7125.0,7275.0,7500.0,7575.0,7725.0,7125.0,7350.0,7140.0,7140.0,7000.0,7000.0,6790.0,6650.0,6790.0,7000.0,7070.0,7210.0,6650.0,6825.0,6630.0,6630.0,6500.0,6500.0,6305.0,6175.0,6305.0,6500.0,6565.0,6695.0,6175.0,6510.0,6324.0,6324.0,6200.0,6200.0,6014.0,5890.0,6014.0,6200.0,6262.0,6386.0,5890.0]}},{"title":"Abdullah of Saudi Arabia","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Abdullah of Saudi Arabia\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[77733,46707,45264,58857,43473,37593,39578,36418,43391,56216,47173,45048,46798,52225,66217,44234,83021,96927,44991,30803,40124,47616,138170,45434,45314,33439,53147,49973,43374,43682,29608,37822,34345,158729,68686,49788,40536,60564,39190,36772,36350,37080,37017,38375,53778,50025,38783,47982,49520,31181,71026,61245,49425,36168,42010,45565,42080,38442,40399,39014,43374,48992,52334,50071,58784,35018,28489,31070,32129,58798,28551,31595,34178,27397,35133,35461,47956,41162,63527,46561,62858,43438,50040,40887,39315,32480,44481,45660,38257,48182,43408,52225,59768,79169,72294,55654,59405,45828,50244,50188,54606,39750,35559,57660,45316,53903,45003,57666,53809,47696,54285,44502,71158,56548,46264,39699,48666,45088,57592,41641],"flat_reference_value":16875.28098575581,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[24000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,16000.0,18000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,17500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,16000.0,28000.0,20000.0,17000.0,14500.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0,14500.0,32000.0,23000.0,17000.0,16000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,15000.0,12500.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,14000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,13500.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,15000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[58400.0,39200.0,40500.0,43800.0,38900.0,36400.0,35100.0,34600.0,41200.0,37800.0,38500.0,37900.0,41600.0,34200.0,37500.0,35800.0,48900.0,56300.0,36700.0,33900.0,41500.0,37200.0,94600.0,46800.0,42300.0,33800.0,41900.0,38400.0,35600.0,40200.0,32500.0,33900.0,32800.0,108500.0,57400.0,38900.0,37600.0,30400.0,32900.0,31800.0,30700.0,28900.0,28400.0,27900.0,31200.0,30500.0,29800.0,30900.0,34800.0,28600.0,38400.0,33200.0,31500.0,28100.0,29400.0,27800.0,27300.0,28900.0,33600.0,29500.0,31800.0,34900.0,30200.0,31400.0,27600.0,25400.0,24800.0,25100.0,26900.0,27800.0,25900.0,26300.0,28700.0,24100.0,29300.0,25800.0,25200.0,23900.0,27400.0,24200.0,84500.0,31600.0,36800.0,28400.0,27900.0,22800.0,25400.0,24600.0,23800.0,22100.0,21900.0,22400.0,24300.0,34700.0,28600.0,24500.0,25800.0,21400.0,22900.0,22300.0,29800.0,21200.0,20400.0,19900.0,20600.0,25400.0,21800.0,21500.0,27600.0,19800.0,20900.0,19700.0,23400.0,19200.0,18600.0,18400.0,19300.0,20100.0,21700.0,19500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[78200.0,65400.0,61200.0,63800.0,58900.0,55100.0,54200.0,52600.0,57400.0,58100.0,56700.0,53900.0,59300.0,51800.0,55400.0,52300.0,66100.0,78500.0,59800.0,54300.0,57900.0,62400.0,134200.0,82100.0,61400.0,52900.0,56300.0,54800.0,50200.0,51700.0,48600.0,47300.0,49100.0,94500.0,76800.0,58400.0,53200.0,45800.0,48200.0,46500.0,43900.0,42100.0,41500.0,40800.0,49200.0,44700.0,43100.0,41600.0,46100.0,40300.0,49800.0,54200.0,48600.0,41200.0,38900.0,37600.0,36800.0,37400.0,38200.0,36100.0,39500.0,37200.0,38900.0,35400.0,36800.0,33200.0,32900.0,34100.0,33500.0,35800.0,34700.0,32600.0,34900.0,31400.0,33800.0,32100.0,31500.0,30800.0,37600.0,32400.0,36200.0,33100.0,32500.0,31900.0,33400.0,29800.0,33200.0,29100.0,30500.0,28900.0,28400.0,27900.0,29300.0,34600.0,33800.0,29700.0,31200.0,28600.0,29400.0,27800.0,28300.0,27100.0,26900.0,26400.0,27800.0,28900.0,28100.0,26800.0,29500.0,26300.0,27400.0,26100.0,26800.0,25200.0,24900.0,24500.0,25700.0,26400.0,25800.0,25100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[68000.0,55000.0,54000.0,51000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,43000.0,50000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,52000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,62000.0,44000.0,45000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,42000.0,37000.0,33000.0,37000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,25000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[135000.0,112000.0,110000.0,112000.0,108000.0,102000.0,104000.0,100000.0,104000.0,102000.0,100000.0,102000.0,108000.0,96000.0,102000.0,98000.0,112000.0,140000.0,110000.0,100000.0,102000.0,104000.0,210000.0,125000.0,112000.0,96000.0,108000.0,102000.0,98000.0,96000.0,94000.0,94000.0,94000.0,160000.0,120000.0,100000.0,96000.0,86000.0,90000.0,86000.0,86000.0,86000.0,84000.0,84000.0,88000.0,86000.0,82000.0,82000.0,88000.0,82000.0,100000.0,100000.0,96000.0,88000.0,88000.0,86000.0,84000.0,84000.0,84000.0,82000.0,84000.0,80000.0,80000.0,76000.0,76000.0,72000.0,72000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,72000.0,72000.0,74000.0,68000.0,72000.0,70000.0,70000.0,68000.0,74000.0,70000.0,74000.0,70000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,64000.0,68000.0,66000.0,66000.0,64000.0,64000.0,64000.0,64000.0,66000.0,64000.0,64000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,64000.0,58000.0,60000.0,60000.0,64000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,60000.0,58000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[22000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,11000.0,11500.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,10000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,17000.0,28000.0,14000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,32000.0,15000.0,15000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,11500.0,11500.0,16000.0,45000.0,30000.0,15000.0,13500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,11000.0,11000.0,20000.0,13000.0,12000.0,10000.0,14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13500.0,13500.0,12500.0,11000.0,14000.0,18000.0,14000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,10500.0,12500.0,13000.0,14500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,16000.0,12500.0,13500.0,16000.0,15000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,15000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,15000.0,12500.0,10500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,9500.0,30000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,12500.0,11000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[27700.0,18900.0,19400.0,18000.0,17500.0,16200.0,15800.0,16200.0,17600.0,18900.0,18500.0,17100.0,24000.0,17300.0,17800.0,16500.0,16000.0,16900.0,16000.0,14900.0,16200.0,17300.0,20000.0,15700.0,21300.0,15800.0,16200.0,15000.0,14600.0,13500.0,13200.0,13500.0,14700.0,25800.0,21500.0,16300.0,18500.0,14200.0,14600.0,13500.0,13100.0,12200.0,11900.0,12200.0,13200.0,14200.0,13900.0,12800.0,16900.0,13100.0,13500.0,12500.0,14100.0,11300.0,13000.0,11300.0,12300.0,13100.0,12900.0,11900.0,15600.0,12400.0,12700.0,11800.0,11400.0,10600.0,10400.0,10600.0,11600.0,12400.0,12200.0,11200.0,14900.0,11800.0,12100.0,11200.0,10900.0,10100.0,11900.0,10100.0,12500.0,11800.0,11500.0,10600.0,13600.0,11000.0,11300.0,10500.0,10200.0,9450.0,9200.0,9450.0,10300.0,11000.0,10800.0,10000.0,13200.0,10700.0,11000.0,10200.0,12900.0,9200.0,9000.0,9200.0,10000.0,10700.0,10500.0,9700.0,12500.0,10300.0,10600.0,9800.0,9500.0,8800.0,8600.0,8800.0,9600.0,10300.0,10100.0,9300.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[48000.0,30000.0,31000.0,35000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,33000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,35000.0,42000.0,27000.0,24000.0,28000.0,25000.0,38000.0,27000.0,28000.0,22000.0,32000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,55000.0,30000.0,21000.0,23000.0,19000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,30000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,18000.0,32000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,16000.0,20000.0,24000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,19000.0,16000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,22000.0,14000.0,17000.0,16000.0,24000.0,15000.0,18000.0,14000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,18000.0,15000.0,13000.0,17000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,16000.0,17000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[110000.0,55000.0,48000.0,45000.0,43000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,75000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,60000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,31000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,52000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,45000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,42000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,40000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,38000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,36000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,35000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[11800.0,9600.0,9100.0,10600.0,9200.0,8600.0,7900.0,7700.0,8300.0,8900.0,8500.0,8000.0,10400.0,8600.0,8400.0,8100.0,9700.0,9300.0,8000.0,7600.0,8100.0,8200.0,9400.0,7800.0,9700.0,8100.0,8800.0,8300.0,8000.0,7700.0,7200.0,7000.0,7600.0,21500.0,13800.0,9300.0,9100.0,7500.0,7300.0,7400.0,7100.0,6800.0,6400.0,6200.0,7600.0,7100.0,6700.0,6500.0,8300.0,6900.0,7700.0,6600.0,6300.0,6100.0,5700.0,5500.0,5900.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,7600.0,6300.0,6100.0,5900.0,5700.0,5500.0,5100.0,5000.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,6900.0,7100.0,6500.0,5900.0,5700.0,5500.0,6700.0,5200.0,5800.0,6200.0,5300.0,5100.0,6300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,4600.0,4500.0,4800.0,5900.0,5300.0,5500.0,6000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,5900.0,4800.0,4600.0,4300.0,5000.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[37500.0,29800.0,30500.0,29000.0,28200.0,27500.0,26500.0,25500.0,28800.0,30200.0,31000.0,27200.0,36000.0,31300.0,32000.0,30500.0,29700.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30300.0,31700.0,35000.0,29700.0,38500.0,33300.0,34000.0,32500.0,31700.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32300.0,39700.0,38500.0,30700.0,41500.0,35800.0,36500.0,35000.0,34200.0,33500.0,32500.0,31500.0,39800.0,38200.0,37000.0,33200.0,69500.0,39800.0,44500.0,42000.0,38200.0,37500.0,36500.0,35500.0,38800.0,40200.0,41000.0,37200.0,45000.0,38300.0,39000.0,37500.0,36700.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,37300.0,38700.0,39500.0,35700.0,41500.0,35800.0,36500.0,35000.0,34200.0,33500.0,32500.0,31500.0,34800.0,36200.0,37000.0,33200.0,39500.0,33300.0,34000.0,32500.0,31700.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32300.0,33700.0,34500.0,30700.0,37500.0,30800.0,31500.0,30000.0,29200.0,28500.0,27500.0,26500.0,29800.0,31200.0,32000.0,28200.0,75000.0,28300.0,29000.0,27500.0,26700.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,27300.0,28700.0,29500.0,25700.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[78000.0,63000.0,53000.0,61000.0,45000.0,38000.0,34000.0,39000.0,186000.0,88000.0,49000.0,43000.0,38000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,82000.0,47000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,32000.0,84000.0,78000.0,46000.0,41000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,31000.0,76000.0,45000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,32000.0,86000.0,48000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,29000.0,66000.0,38000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,64000.0,37000.0,38000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,32000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,66000.0,38000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,34000.0,92000.0,72000.0,39000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,126000.0,52000.0,29000.0,28000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1200.0,1500.0,1200.0,1250.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,1400.0,1200.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,750.0,780.0,800.0,780.0,750.0,820.0,780.0,800.0,760.0,750.0,740.0,720.0,720.0,950.0,800.0,780.0,740.0,800.0,760.0,760.0,730.0,730.0,720.0,700.0,700.0,720.0,740.0,730.0,700.0,760.0,720.0,720.0,700.0,700.0,680.0,680.0,670.0,690.0,700.0,690.0,670.0,740.0,700.0,690.0,680.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,650.0,670.0,680.0,670.0,650.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[23500.0,12500.0,10500.0,10000.0,11500.0,10000.0,8500.0,8200.0,10000.0,9500.0,10200.0,11000.0,19500.0,10000.0,9300.0,9800.0,11200.0,14500.0,8800.0,8300.0,10500.0,10000.0,12500.0,11500.0,16500.0,8800.0,8200.0,8700.0,9900.0,9200.0,7900.0,7500.0,9300.0,9000.0,10800.0,10000.0,13500.0,7700.0,7200.0,7600.0,8700.0,8000.0,6800.0,6500.0,8200.0,7900.0,8300.0,8900.0,12200.0,7200.0,6700.0,7100.0,8200.0,7500.0,6400.0,6200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7900.0,8400.0,11200.0,6600.0,6100.0,6500.0,7500.0,6900.0,5900.0,5700.0,7200.0,6900.0,7200.0,7800.0,10500.0,6200.0,5700.0,6100.0,7100.0,6500.0,5600.0,5400.0,6900.0,6500.0,6800.0,7300.0,10000.0,5900.0,5500.0,5900.0,6800.0,6200.0,5400.0,5200.0,6600.0,6200.0,6500.0,7000.0,9700.0,5700.0,5300.0,5700.0,6600.0,6000.0,5200.0,5000.0,6400.0,6100.0,6400.0,6900.0,9300.0,5500.0,5100.0,5500.0,6400.0,5800.0,5000.0,4800.0,6200.0,5900.0,6200.0,6700.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[32000.0,12500.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,18000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8200.0,9000.0,12000.0,9500.0,8500.0,9000.0,9000.0,13000.0,10500.0,16000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,10000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,18000.0,13000.0,10000.0,15000.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,8200.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,14500.0,8000.0,12000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8500.0,13500.0,7800.0,7600.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,8200.0,13000.0,7600.0,7500.0,7600.0,7800.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8200.0,12500.0,7500.0,7400.0,7600.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,7500.0,8000.0,12500.0,11000.0,9000.0,12000.0,7400.0,7300.0,7500.0,7600.0,7800.0,7500.0,7300.0,7600.0,9500.0,8500.0,8200.0,16000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7500.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,7200.0,7500.0,8200.0,7800.0,8000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[8000.0,7500.0,7800.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0,6200.0,5800.0,6000.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,5300.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,150000.0,40000.0,18000.0,12000.0,9500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6400.0,6200.0,6500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0]}},{"title":"Battle of Breitenfeld (1631)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Battle of Breitenfeld (1631)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5833,5721,5818,5971,5645,5255,5097,5398,6665,6777,6872,6739,6727,6676,6769,6601,6216,5365,5094,5401,6563,6927,6305,6555,5633,5364,6525,5641,5579,4838,4963,5181,6567,5987,5624,5297,5491,5107,5202,5102,5461,4854,5241,5632,8515,6003,5815,4705,4989,4920,5016,5386,5206,4786,4598,4533,6046,4954,5008,4999,5464,5226,5685,5343,5198,4957,4243,4310,6250,4978,4452,4149,4470,3974,4196,4424,4609,3791,4082,4116,5111,4621,5175,4300,4487,5678,5001,4892,5137,4624,5167,5993,5978,4953,5086,5024,5412,4703,5200,5252,5080,4374,4535,4606,5406,4616,12107,6224,5787,5698,6393,6053,5432,4499,4976,5381,5914,5827,7404,5605],"flat_reference_value":17062.60671742862,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[3900.0,3600.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,4900.0,4100.0,4200.0,3700.0,4000.0,3800.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,5200.0,4500.0,4400.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,4000.0,5600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,4400.0,4100.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,4200.0,5900.0,4900.0,4800.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,5200.0,5700.0,5500.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,6900.0,5600.0,5500.0,5000.0,5100.0,4700.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,4500.0,4300.0,4700.0,6600.0,5300.0,5200.0,4600.0,4900.0,4600.0,5300.0,5000.0,4800.0,4400.0,4200.0,4600.0,6300.0,5200.0,5100.0,4500.0,4800.0,4500.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,4500.0,6200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4400.0,4700.0,4400.0,5100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4200.0,4000.0,4400.0,6100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4300.0,4600.0,4300.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4100.0,3900.0,4300.0,6000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[10200.0,9800.0,10400.0,10100.0,9600.0,8700.0,8500.0,8800.0,13800.0,10900.0,10300.0,9100.0,10100.0,9600.0,10500.0,9900.0,9500.0,8600.0,8400.0,8700.0,14500.0,11100.0,10400.0,9000.0,9900.0,9400.0,10200.0,9800.0,9300.0,8300.0,8500.0,8600.0,13600.0,10800.0,10100.0,8900.0,9800.0,9500.0,10400.0,9900.0,9600.0,8700.0,8800.0,9200.0,15200.0,12400.0,10900.0,9500.0,10400.0,9900.0,11600.0,12800.0,12200.0,11500.0,10600.0,10800.0,16100.0,12300.0,11500.0,10400.0,11300.0,10700.0,11400.0,10900.0,10500.0,9400.0,9500.0,9700.0,16800.0,11800.0,11000.0,9700.0,10500.0,9800.0,10400.0,9900.0,9500.0,8700.0,8900.0,9100.0,15900.0,11600.0,10500.0,9200.0,9900.0,9300.0,10000.0,9500.0,9100.0,8200.0,8300.0,8500.0,13900.0,10400.0,9700.0,8600.0,9300.0,8900.0,9400.0,9000.0,8600.0,7800.0,7900.0,8100.0,13200.0,9800.0,9100.0,8200.0,8900.0,8400.0,9000.0,8600.0,8200.0,7500.0,7600.0,7800.0,12700.0,9400.0,8800.0,7900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[15200.0,14800.0,15600.0,15100.0,14500.0,12800.0,12200.0,13100.0,16400.0,16100.0,15800.0,13900.0,16100.0,14900.0,16200.0,15400.0,14800.0,13100.0,12600.0,13800.0,17200.0,16900.0,16500.0,14300.0,16800.0,15500.0,17100.0,16200.0,15300.0,13700.0,13200.0,14500.0,18500.0,17800.0,17200.0,15100.0,17200.0,16400.0,25400.0,22100.0,18500.0,15200.0,14800.0,16100.0,20400.0,19100.0,18200.0,16000.0,17500.0,16800.0,21200.0,24800.0,22100.0,16900.0,15800.0,16400.0,21500.0,19200.0,18400.0,16700.0,18200.0,16900.0,18100.0,17400.0,16200.0,14100.0,13600.0,14800.0,19200.0,18100.0,17500.0,15400.0,16500.0,15200.0,16800.0,15900.0,15100.0,13300.0,12900.0,14100.0,18100.0,17000.0,16200.0,14500.0,15800.0,14600.0,15900.0,15200.0,14400.0,12700.0,12200.0,13400.0,17100.0,16200.0,15600.0,13800.0,15100.0,14200.0,15300.0,14700.0,13900.0,12100.0,11800.0,12900.0,16500.0,15400.0,14900.0,13200.0,14600.0,13800.0,14800.0,14200.0,13500.0,11800.0,11400.0,12500.0,15800.0,14900.0,14300.0,12800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[13200.0,13600.0,14300.0,13800.0,12900.0,11200.0,11000.0,11300.0,13100.0,13900.0,14000.0,11800.0,12700.0,13100.0,13700.0,13000.0,12400.0,10800.0,10600.0,10900.0,12600.0,13300.0,13400.0,11200.0,12100.0,12400.0,13000.0,12500.0,11800.0,10300.0,10100.0,10400.0,12000.0,12700.0,12800.0,10700.0,11600.0,11900.0,12400.0,11900.0,11300.0,9900.0,9700.0,10000.0,11500.0,12100.0,12200.0,10200.0,11200.0,11400.0,12600.0,13600.0,12700.0,10500.0,10200.0,10100.0,11300.0,11800.0,11900.0,10100.0,10900.0,10900.0,11300.0,10900.0,10300.0,9100.0,8900.0,9100.0,10500.0,11000.0,11000.0,9300.0,10100.0,10200.0,10700.0,10200.0,9700.0,8600.0,8400.0,8600.0,9900.0,10400.0,10400.0,8800.0,9600.0,9700.0,10200.0,9700.0,9200.0,8200.0,8000.0,8200.0,9400.0,9900.0,9900.0,8300.0,9000.0,9100.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,7600.0,7400.0,7500.0,8600.0,9000.0,8900.0,7500.0,8100.0,8200.0,8500.0,8100.0,7700.0,6900.0,6700.0,6800.0,7800.0,8100.0,8000.0,6800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9800.0,9400.0,9600.0,9200.0,9100.0,8000.0,7900.0,8000.0,9300.0,9700.0,9900.0,9200.0,9900.0,9300.0,9700.0,9000.0,9100.0,8000.0,8000.0,8100.0,9200.0,9600.0,9800.0,9100.0,9700.0,9000.0,9400.0,8900.0,9000.0,7900.0,7900.0,8000.0,9100.0,9500.0,9600.0,9000.0,9600.0,8900.0,9300.0,8800.0,8900.0,7800.0,7900.0,8000.0,9000.0,9400.0,9500.0,9000.0,9700.0,9200.0,10200.0,11500.0,11200.0,9800.0,9500.0,9400.0,10000.0,10300.0,10400.0,10200.0,10800.0,9900.0,10200.0,9500.0,9400.0,8300.0,8300.0,8400.0,9200.0,9300.0,9300.0,8900.0,9400.0,8700.0,9100.0,8600.0,8600.0,7600.0,7700.0,7800.0,8600.0,8800.0,8900.0,8500.0,9000.0,8300.0,8700.0,8200.0,8300.0,7300.0,7400.0,7500.0,8300.0,8500.0,8500.0,8200.0,8700.0,8100.0,8400.0,8000.0,8100.0,7200.0,7300.0,7400.0,8100.0,8300.0,8300.0,8100.0,8500.0,7800.0,8200.0,7900.0,7900.0,7000.0,7100.0,7200.0,7900.0,8000.0,8000.0,7800.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2250.0,2000.0,1850.0,1900.0,2900.0,2600.0,2700.0,2100.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2350.0,2100.0,1950.0,2000.0,16500.0,2800.0,2850.0,2200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3600.0,2500.0,2200.0,2300.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,2400.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2150.0,2000.0,2050.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2250.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,3200.0,2900.0,2400.0,2200.0,2250.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2400.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2150.0,2000.0,2050.0,8500.0,2900.0,2950.0,2350.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2400.0,2100.0,2050.0,2100.0,3000.0,2750.0,2850.0,2300.0,2600.0,2550.0,2450.0,2400.0,2350.0,2050.0,1950.0,2000.0,2900.0,2650.0,2750.0,2250.0,2550.0,2500.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,2850.0,2600.0,2700.0,2200.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,1950.0,1850.0,1900.0,2800.0,2550.0,2650.0,2150.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2384.0,2147.0,2431.0,2189.0,2023.0,1612.0,1498.0,1725.0,2789.0,2294.0,2261.0,1583.0,2198.0,2214.0,2245.0,2076.0,1952.0,1594.0,1563.0,1671.0,2692.0,2185.0,2157.0,1521.0,2235.0,1998.0,2304.0,2031.0,1899.0,1512.0,1439.0,1618.0,2615.0,2198.0,2014.0,1472.0,2089.0,2056.0,2122.0,1987.0,1794.0,1491.0,1387.0,1588.0,2573.0,2101.0,2065.0,1443.0,2154.0,2081.0,2687.0,2562.0,2113.0,1724.0,1522.0,1629.0,2648.0,2217.0,2128.0,1498.0,2034.0,1921.0,2179.0,1943.0,1812.0,1456.0,1365.0,1549.0,3521.0,2038.0,2004.0,1398.0,1991.0,1876.0,2115.0,1898.0,1773.0,1421.0,1339.0,1512.0,2487.0,1998.0,1972.0,1375.0,1893.0,1804.0,1931.0,1817.0,1692.0,1368.0,1284.0,1447.0,2369.0,1912.0,1885.0,1312.0,1835.0,1821.0,1868.0,1749.0,1633.0,1309.0,1238.0,1395.0,2284.0,1842.0,1811.0,1269.0,1764.0,1682.0,1797.0,1689.0,1571.0,1263.0,1194.0,1342.0,2198.0,1775.0,1746.0,1221.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5200.0,5300.0,5460.0,5410.0,5200.0,4780.0,4580.0,4840.0,5620.0,5720.0,5620.0,4780.0,5520.0,5630.0,5800.0,5740.0,5520.0,5080.0,4860.0,5130.0,5960.0,6070.0,5960.0,5080.0,5850.0,5970.0,6140.0,6180.0,6100.0,5650.0,5300.0,5440.0,6320.0,6440.0,6320.0,5380.0,6200.0,6320.0,6510.0,6450.0,6200.0,5700.0,5460.0,5770.0,6700.0,6820.0,6700.0,5700.0,6580.0,6710.0,7330.0,7180.0,6780.0,6110.0,6400.0,6120.0,7110.0,7240.0,7110.0,6050.0,6980.0,7120.0,7330.0,7260.0,6980.0,6420.0,6140.0,6490.0,7540.0,7680.0,7540.0,6420.0,7400.0,7680.0,8120.0,7850.0,7470.0,6810.0,6510.0,6880.0,7990.0,8140.0,7990.0,6810.0,7850.0,8010.0,8240.0,8160.0,7850.0,7220.0,6910.0,7300.0,8480.0,8640.0,8480.0,7220.0,8320.0,8490.0,8740.0,8650.0,8320.0,7650.0,7320.0,7740.0,8990.0,9150.0,8990.0,7650.0,8820.0,9000.0,9260.0,9170.0,8820.0,8110.0,7760.0,8200.0,9530.0,9700.0,9530.0,8110.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[160.0,150.0,170.0,165.0,155.0,140.0,130.0,145.0,1850.0,320.0,210.0,180.0,190.0,175.0,185.0,180.0,170.0,160.0,150.0,165.0,2100.0,360.0,230.0,200.0,220.0,210.0,230.0,225.0,240.0,215.0,200.0,220.0,2700.0,450.0,280.0,240.0,250.0,235.0,245.0,240.0,230.0,215.0,205.0,225.0,1950.0,400.0,270.0,230.0,240.0,230.0,250.0,245.0,235.0,220.0,210.0,230.0,2200.0,420.0,280.0,240.0,250.0,240.0,260.0,255.0,245.0,230.0,220.0,240.0,3600.0,520.0,300.0,260.0,270.0,255.0,265.0,260.0,250.0,235.0,225.0,245.0,2100.0,430.0,290.0,250.0,250.0,240.0,255.0,245.0,235.0,220.0,210.0,230.0,1900.0,390.0,270.0,230.0,230.0,220.0,235.0,225.0,215.0,200.0,190.0,210.0,1750.0,360.0,250.0,215.0,210.0,200.0,215.0,205.0,195.0,185.0,175.0,195.0,1650.0,330.0,230.0,200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1014.0,953.0,1202.0,1058.0,1112.0,874.0,859.0,988.0,1644.0,1270.0,1189.0,792.0,972.0,1040.0,1120.0,1167.0,1034.0,987.0,812.0,929.0,1563.0,1399.0,1176.0,892.0,1175.0,1060.0,1354.0,1227.0,1470.0,1069.0,966.0,1124.0,1798.0,1518.0,1285.0,967.0,1055.0,1074.0,1180.0,1229.0,1135.0,1082.0,882.0,1020.0,1816.0,1362.0,1314.0,813.0,1153.0,1212.0,1680.0,1508.0,1426.0,1162.0,1147.0,1127.0,1837.0,1647.0,1569.0,1112.0,1225.0,1106.0,1371.0,1280.0,1344.0,1058.0,1040.0,1137.0,2079.0,1521.0,1423.0,968.0,986.0,1036.0,1281.0,1105.0,1129.0,1043.0,851.0,973.0,1702.0,1313.0,1305.0,818.0,994.0,944.0,1045.0,1113.0,1027.0,970.0,833.0,932.0,1552.0,1515.0,1098.0,860.0,892.0,936.0,1040.0,959.0,1020.0,845.0,804.0,924.0,1537.0,1176.0,1091.0,702.0,900.0,821.0,1048.0,940.0,884.0,853.0,732.0,828.0,1433.0,1163.0,1005.0,704.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[546.0,546.0,572.0,562.0,546.0,468.0,426.0,442.0,624.0,582.0,546.0,406.0,588.0,588.0,616.0,605.0,588.0,504.0,459.0,476.0,672.0,784.0,588.0,437.0,630.0,630.0,660.0,648.0,756.0,540.0,492.0,510.0,720.0,672.0,630.0,468.0,693.0,693.0,726.0,713.0,693.0,594.0,541.0,561.0,792.0,739.0,693.0,515.0,798.0,798.0,1338.0,1477.0,1357.0,1026.0,717.0,711.0,1003.0,894.0,798.0,622.0,861.0,861.0,902.0,886.0,861.0,738.0,672.0,697.0,2558.0,918.0,861.0,640.0,819.0,819.0,858.0,842.0,819.0,702.0,640.0,663.0,936.0,874.0,819.0,608.0,777.0,777.0,814.0,799.0,777.0,666.0,607.0,629.0,888.0,829.0,777.0,577.0,735.0,735.0,770.0,756.0,735.0,630.0,574.0,595.0,840.0,784.0,735.0,546.0,693.0,693.0,726.0,713.0,693.0,594.0,541.0,561.0,792.0,739.0,693.0,515.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3024.0,2681.0,2946.0,2818.0,3007.0,2725.0,2679.0,3012.0,5487.0,3142.0,3618.0,2873.0,3125.0,2758.0,3059.0,2916.0,3104.0,2798.0,2712.0,3127.0,5664.0,3268.0,3741.0,2956.0,3312.0,2947.0,3431.0,3216.0,3369.0,3157.0,3048.0,3519.0,6628.0,3814.0,4210.0,3239.0,3167.0,2796.0,3295.0,3046.0,3227.0,2968.0,2863.0,3271.0,5946.0,3419.0,3857.0,3094.0,3278.0,2913.0,3512.0,3718.0,3612.0,3334.0,3221.0,3576.0,6437.0,3508.0,3984.0,3152.0,3210.0,2846.0,3319.0,3077.0,3218.0,2982.0,2893.0,3279.0,5865.0,3402.0,4520.0,3099.0,3046.0,2704.0,3138.0,2917.0,3074.0,2831.0,2742.0,3105.0,5551.0,3228.0,3643.0,2935.0,2963.0,2638.0,3024.0,2819.0,2948.0,2736.0,2659.0,3012.0,5367.0,3137.0,3514.0,2846.0,2901.0,2582.0,2953.0,2758.0,2889.0,2664.0,2587.0,2938.0,5224.0,3071.0,3428.0,2795.0,2854.0,2540.0,2896.0,2697.0,2821.0,2613.0,2548.0,2875.0,5117.0,3009.0,3352.0,2734.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[520.0,540.0,560.0,530.0,520.0,430.0,410.0,420.0,560.0,580.0,570.0,470.0,540.0,560.0,580.0,540.0,530.0,440.0,420.0,430.0,580.0,600.0,590.0,480.0,550.0,570.0,590.0,550.0,540.0,450.0,430.0,440.0,600.0,620.0,600.0,490.0,560.0,580.0,600.0,560.0,550.0,450.0,430.0,450.0,610.0,630.0,610.0,500.0,580.0,590.0,640.0,650.0,600.0,500.0,470.0,470.0,620.0,640.0,620.0,510.0,590.0,610.0,630.0,590.0,570.0,470.0,450.0,460.0,640.0,660.0,640.0,520.0,600.0,620.0,650.0,600.0,580.0,480.0,460.0,470.0,650.0,670.0,650.0,530.0,600.0,620.0,650.0,600.0,580.0,480.0,460.0,470.0,660.0,680.0,650.0,530.0,590.0,610.0,640.0,590.0,570.0,470.0,450.0,460.0,650.0,670.0,640.0,520.0,580.0,600.0,630.0,580.0,560.0,460.0,440.0,450.0,640.0,660.0,630.0,510.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[680.0,605.0,685.0,680.0,760.0,650.0,535.0,575.0,1010.0,860.0,755.0,865.0,715.0,645.0,725.0,720.0,805.0,685.0,565.0,610.0,1070.0,905.0,800.0,910.0,755.0,680.0,760.0,755.0,845.0,720.0,595.0,635.0,1240.0,950.0,835.0,960.0,810.0,725.0,805.0,805.0,890.0,770.0,630.0,680.0,1320.0,1015.0,890.0,1100.0,905.0,810.0,950.0,1000.0,1090.0,885.0,730.0,780.0,1550.0,1170.0,1000.0,1260.0,875.0,785.0,870.0,875.0,970.0,830.0,695.0,735.0,1400.0,1120.0,980.0,1140.0,850.0,760.0,855.0,850.0,940.0,810.0,670.0,715.0,1350.0,1085.0,940.0,1100.0,910.0,815.0,915.0,910.0,1000.0,860.0,720.0,765.0,1430.0,1155.0,1005.0,1230.0,965.0,865.0,970.0,965.0,1070.0,920.0,760.0,815.0,1520.0,1220.0,1070.0,1270.0,1020.0,920.0,1025.0,1020.0,1130.0,975.0,805.0,860.0,1600.0,1305.0,1140.0,1325.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[470.0,438.0,463.0,448.0,456.0,431.0,419.0,442.0,526.0,468.0,451.0,432.0,452.0,421.0,450.0,436.0,443.0,418.0,407.0,430.0,510.0,455.0,440.0,421.0,435.0,408.0,432.0,420.0,427.0,401.0,393.0,415.0,492.0,441.0,426.0,407.0,412.0,384.0,410.0,396.0,403.0,380.0,371.0,394.0,468.0,420.0,405.0,386.0,421.0,397.0,431.0,440.0,459.0,448.0,430.0,452.0,535.0,472.0,458.0,440.0,423.0,398.0,420.0,405.0,414.0,392.0,381.0,407.0,481.0,432.0,416.0,398.0,405.0,379.0,402.0,388.0,396.0,372.0,363.0,387.0,457.0,412.0,396.0,378.0,391.0,367.0,386.0,374.0,382.0,359.0,350.0,375.0,443.0,398.0,383.0,365.0,381.0,355.0,378.0,362.0,370.0,348.0,339.0,363.0,432.0,386.0,372.0,354.0,370.0,347.0,367.0,353.0,360.0,338.0,330.0,354.0,420.0,376.0,360.0,343.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[374.0,357.0,357.0,340.0,323.0,289.0,272.0,289.0,476.0,374.0,357.0,306.0,352.0,336.0,336.0,320.0,304.0,272.0,256.0,272.0,448.0,352.0,336.0,288.0,330.0,315.0,315.0,300.0,285.0,255.0,240.0,255.0,420.0,330.0,315.0,270.0,319.0,305.0,305.0,290.0,276.0,247.0,232.0,247.0,406.0,319.0,305.0,261.0,330.0,315.0,315.0,300.0,285.0,255.0,240.0,255.0,420.0,330.0,315.0,270.0,308.0,294.0,294.0,280.0,266.0,238.0,224.0,238.0,392.0,308.0,294.0,252.0,297.0,284.0,284.0,270.0,257.0,230.0,216.0,230.0,378.0,297.0,284.0,243.0,286.0,273.0,273.0,260.0,247.0,221.0,208.0,221.0,364.0,286.0,273.0,234.0,253.0,242.0,242.0,230.0,219.0,196.0,184.0,196.0,322.0,253.0,242.0,207.0,209.0,200.0,200.0,190.0,181.0,162.0,152.0,162.0,266.0,209.0,200.0,171.0]}},{"title":"A Bug's Life","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"A Bug's Life\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[43063,37057,48858,39146,46520,63333,48475,39405,37718,35888,43133,41167,52973,38281,44956,44305,40292,50040,42437,50605,33105,34810,39312,45343,50726,49579,48167,45112,37079,49997,50468,37439,35148,38150,40187,38808,47427,40511,42565,96651,44173,61440,54663,46178,38210,42612,76068,56064,51885,46618,68679,91227,83984,67056,58785,60534,55461,67836,69840,59436,62753,53515,63527,56820,59377,52584,54294,49896,47263,45704,40894,49175,52467,44535,49472,50189,56886,57784,52964,58760,51595,47351,48182,41333,57229,51103,61572,63151,61406,63524,68936,63152,60257,54728,57450,52773,80208,57028,59662,56693,53418,60285,53608,57663,47456,43683,46537,50058,60356,55743,59170,51415,53990,58645,54636,54935,50848,45574,47484,43999],"flat_reference_value":16867.668865792944,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[36000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,37000.0,40000.0,43000.0,40000.0,35000.0,37000.0,42000.0,46000.0,40000.0,35000.0,37000.0,37000.0,39000.0,43000.0,46000.0,43000.0,39000.0,47000.0,54000.0,49000.0,42000.0,37000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,42000.0,47000.0,75000.0,57000.0,46000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,44000.0,49000.0,52000.0,48000.0,43000.0,46000.0,66000.0,70000.0,55000.0,48000.0,62000.0,79000.0,72000.0,67000.0,69000.0,65000.0,57000.0,59000.0,65000.0,70000.0,62000.0,53000.0,56000.0,54000.0,56000.0,61000.0,64000.0,60000.0,52000.0,55000.0,61000.0,65000.0,57000.0,49000.0,52000.0,51000.0,53000.0,59000.0,62000.0,58000.0,51000.0,54000.0,60000.0,63000.0,56000.0,49000.0,51000.0,51000.0,53000.0,58000.0,62000.0,58000.0,52000.0,57000.0,85000.0,68000.0,61000.0,51000.0,54000.0,52000.0,55000.0,63000.0,66000.0,61000.0,53000.0,56000.0,62000.0,67000.0,57000.0,51000.0,59000.0,52000.0,54000.0,60000.0,63000.0,59000.0,52000.0,55000.0,61000.0,65000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[58400.0,52100.0,56300.0,54200.0,57800.0,74500.0,71200.0,63400.0,51900.0,53600.0,59200.0,60800.0,59500.0,51800.0,56100.0,54900.0,57400.0,68900.0,67500.0,62100.0,52400.0,58300.0,69400.0,63200.0,60100.0,52900.0,61500.0,56200.0,59400.0,79800.0,74100.0,64700.0,58900.0,55200.0,76400.0,64300.0,60800.0,53700.0,58900.0,56500.0,60200.0,81300.0,75600.0,65400.0,54100.0,56800.0,84200.0,77500.0,68900.0,59400.0,86700.0,98500.0,91200.0,79400.0,76800.0,72300.0,62100.0,63500.0,67800.0,73900.0,71400.0,61800.0,65900.0,62700.0,64300.0,75200.0,72800.0,66500.0,55800.0,57200.0,61400.0,64100.0,61900.0,53400.0,58700.0,55600.0,57900.0,71500.0,68200.0,61400.0,51200.0,52800.0,57600.0,59300.0,57800.0,50400.0,54900.0,53200.0,56100.0,70400.0,69800.0,64200.0,52100.0,53900.0,74600.0,61200.0,83500.0,72400.0,59800.0,54600.0,57300.0,84900.0,81200.0,69500.0,53800.0,52400.0,56900.0,58700.0,67800.0,55200.0,63400.0,52900.0,54800.0,68500.0,66100.0,59700.0,49600.0,50800.0,55400.0,57200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[58400.0,51200.0,54600.0,52800.0,55100.0,64800.0,71200.0,62300.0,50900.0,53400.0,63100.0,66200.0,59100.0,52300.0,55800.0,54100.0,56400.0,66900.0,72500.0,61700.0,52200.0,54800.0,64200.0,67800.0,58200.0,53100.0,72800.0,57400.0,58900.0,68400.0,74100.0,66800.0,78200.0,59300.0,76500.0,69400.0,60100.0,53800.0,57900.0,55200.0,58100.0,71400.0,74800.0,63900.0,54100.0,58600.0,79200.0,82400.0,68100.0,61200.0,89400.0,112500.0,98200.0,82300.0,84100.0,73200.0,59800.0,61400.0,71900.0,76800.0,63400.0,55100.0,58200.0,56400.0,57900.0,66200.0,70800.0,61500.0,51200.0,53800.0,62400.0,67100.0,57800.0,49200.0,53600.0,52100.0,54300.0,64200.0,68900.0,58700.0,48900.0,51400.0,60200.0,64500.0,56100.0,48400.0,52300.0,50800.0,53100.0,62400.0,66800.0,57200.0,47900.0,50200.0,58700.0,63100.0,84200.0,76100.0,58400.0,51200.0,52800.0,61500.0,65400.0,56300.0,46800.0,48900.0,57200.0,61800.0,54200.0,47300.0,50800.0,49100.0,51200.0,59800.0,63900.0,54700.0,45600.0,47800.0,55900.0,60200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[92000.0,84000.0,88000.0,85000.0,86000.0,95000.0,97000.0,90000.0,80000.0,82000.0,86000.0,90000.0,88000.0,79000.0,83000.0,81000.0,80000.0,84000.0,86000.0,82000.0,74000.0,76000.0,80000.0,84000.0,82000.0,73000.0,77000.0,75000.0,74000.0,79000.0,81000.0,78000.0,76000.0,74000.0,88000.0,82000.0,78000.0,70000.0,73000.0,71000.0,70000.0,74000.0,75000.0,71000.0,65000.0,66000.0,82000.0,80000.0,74000.0,66000.0,76000.0,85000.0,80000.0,74000.0,72000.0,68000.0,60000.0,61000.0,63000.0,68000.0,66000.0,58000.0,61000.0,59000.0,58000.0,60000.0,61000.0,59000.0,53000.0,54000.0,56000.0,60000.0,59000.0,52000.0,55000.0,53000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,53000.0,48000.0,49000.0,51000.0,55000.0,54000.0,48000.0,51000.0,49000.0,48000.0,51000.0,52000.0,49000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,51000.0,50000.0,45000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,49000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,48000.0,47000.0,44000.0,50000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,45000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[125000.0,112000.0,115000.0,110000.0,112000.0,150000.0,140000.0,120000.0,105000.0,105000.0,118000.0,125000.0,122000.0,105000.0,108000.0,125000.0,108000.0,125000.0,118000.0,108000.0,98000.0,100000.0,135000.0,130000.0,120000.0,102000.0,104000.0,100000.0,102000.0,150000.0,130000.0,110000.0,96000.0,98000.0,125000.0,112000.0,108000.0,95000.0,100000.0,96000.0,100000.0,140000.0,125000.0,105000.0,92000.0,95000.0,135000.0,125000.0,115000.0,100000.0,120000.0,140000.0,130000.0,115000.0,110000.0,105000.0,92000.0,92000.0,100000.0,115000.0,108000.0,92000.0,98000.0,90000.0,90000.0,105000.0,98000.0,92000.0,82000.0,82000.0,90000.0,92000.0,92000.0,82000.0,90000.0,82000.0,80000.0,98000.0,90000.0,82000.0,74000.0,74000.0,82000.0,84000.0,82000.0,72000.0,75000.0,72000.0,74000.0,90000.0,84000.0,76000.0,68000.0,68000.0,78000.0,76000.0,76000.0,68000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,92000.0,84000.0,72000.0,64000.0,64000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,62000.0,64000.0,61000.0,62000.0,74000.0,70000.0,65000.0,58000.0,58000.0,64000.0,64000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[33400.0,31800.0,34200.0,33100.0,32500.0,34100.0,32900.0,33600.0,35200.0,36600.0,41200.0,38700.0,34300.0,32100.0,33600.0,32800.0,33300.0,34900.0,33300.0,32600.0,34100.0,37800.0,45300.0,40100.0,35200.0,33400.0,34100.0,33800.0,35300.0,41200.0,36700.0,34200.0,35800.0,37400.0,95200.0,48600.0,37200.0,35100.0,36200.0,35400.0,37100.0,55400.0,49200.0,36300.0,37900.0,38600.0,41500.0,39400.0,36200.0,34400.0,44300.0,46100.0,39500.0,38300.0,36400.0,35100.0,36200.0,37700.0,42400.0,40200.0,34100.0,52400.0,34300.0,33200.0,32300.0,34400.0,32400.0,31200.0,32300.0,33700.0,36800.0,35300.0,30200.0,28600.0,29500.0,29100.0,29700.0,32200.0,29300.0,27700.0,28600.0,30200.0,34100.0,31600.0,27600.0,26100.0,26600.0,26200.0,27100.0,31300.0,28200.0,26600.0,27600.0,30100.0,58300.0,38200.0,33200.0,27200.0,27100.0,26600.0,27100.0,31200.0,28100.0,26100.0,26700.0,28700.0,33200.0,30100.0,25600.0,24200.0,24600.0,24100.0,25100.0,29200.0,26600.0,24100.0,24700.0,26200.0,30100.0,28100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[22534.0,17892.0,20145.0,19210.0,19877.0,22680.0,24315.0,22140.0,18455.0,19280.0,22110.0,25420.0,21300.0,17250.0,19300.0,18600.0,19100.0,21800.0,23350.0,21400.0,17800.0,18650.0,21400.0,24500.0,20600.0,16800.0,18650.0,18000.0,18600.0,21200.0,22700.0,20650.0,17200.0,18100.0,25200.0,23800.0,19200.0,16200.0,17900.0,17450.0,17800.0,21900.0,21400.0,19700.0,16600.0,17400.0,23200.0,25600.0,22400.0,17800.0,22800.0,26200.0,22500.0,22300.0,23100.0,20500.0,17200.0,17800.0,20500.0,23500.0,19500.0,15500.0,17100.0,16600.0,17000.0,19400.0,20700.0,18900.0,15800.0,16500.0,18900.0,21700.0,18700.0,14800.0,16500.0,16000.0,16400.0,18700.0,20000.0,18200.0,15200.0,15900.0,18200.0,20900.0,18300.0,14600.0,16200.0,15700.0,16100.0,18400.0,19700.0,17900.0,14900.0,15600.0,22800.0,20600.0,17600.0,14000.0,15600.0,15100.0,15500.0,19200.0,18900.0,17200.0,14300.0,15000.0,17400.0,19800.0,17100.0,13600.0,15100.0,14700.0,15000.0,17200.0,18400.0,16700.0,13900.0,14500.0,16900.0,19300.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[56000.0,50500.0,53500.0,52000.0,55000.0,60500.0,61500.0,58000.0,50500.0,49500.0,54000.0,61500.0,54000.0,49000.0,50500.0,50500.0,53000.0,59500.0,59500.0,55500.0,49000.0,48000.0,53500.0,59500.0,57000.0,51500.0,53000.0,53000.0,56000.0,65500.0,65000.0,59000.0,51500.0,50500.0,65000.0,63000.0,60000.0,54500.0,56000.0,56000.0,59000.0,69500.0,66000.0,62000.0,54500.0,53000.0,61500.0,68000.0,63000.0,57000.0,68000.0,74000.0,73000.0,78500.0,80000.0,75000.0,64000.0,62500.0,68000.0,78000.0,67500.0,61000.0,62500.0,62500.0,66000.0,75500.0,74000.0,69500.0,61000.0,59500.0,65000.0,74000.0,64500.0,58000.0,63000.0,60000.0,63000.0,74000.0,70500.0,66000.0,58000.0,57000.0,62000.0,70500.0,66500.0,60000.0,62000.0,62000.0,65000.0,75000.0,73000.0,68500.0,60000.0,58500.0,86000.0,75500.0,70500.0,63500.0,65500.0,65500.0,69000.0,85000.0,82000.0,72500.0,63500.0,62000.0,68000.0,77500.0,73500.0,66500.0,68500.0,68500.0,72000.0,84000.0,81000.0,75500.0,66500.0,65000.0,71000.0,81000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[22050.0,19950.0,19950.0,19950.0,21000.0,23100.0,24150.0,23100.0,19950.0,19950.0,21000.0,22050.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,20500.0,22500.0,23500.0,22500.0,19500.0,19500.0,42000.0,23000.0,22500.0,20500.0,20500.0,20500.0,21500.0,23500.0,24500.0,23500.0,20500.0,20500.0,52000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,23000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20500.0,21500.0,23500.0,24500.0,23500.0,20500.0,20500.0,21500.0,22500.0,20500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,19500.0,21500.0,22500.0,21500.0,18500.0,18500.0,19500.0,20500.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,45000.0,23000.0,19500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18500.0,20500.0,21500.0,20500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18500.0,19500.0,18500.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17500.0,19500.0,20500.0,19500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17500.0,18500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[41200.0,38800.0,43500.0,42100.0,45800.0,51400.0,52300.0,49600.0,44800.0,46200.0,49500.0,53100.0,39900.0,37900.0,42300.0,40800.0,44100.0,48200.0,49400.0,46800.0,43100.0,48500.0,51200.0,50300.0,39200.0,37100.0,40900.0,40100.0,43400.0,47800.0,48900.0,46200.0,42600.0,46800.0,68400.0,55600.0,38400.0,36300.0,39800.0,39100.0,41700.0,46300.0,47600.0,44900.0,41900.0,43800.0,62300.0,58700.0,40100.0,38600.0,56400.0,59200.0,52400.0,50300.0,49200.0,46900.0,43400.0,45200.0,53400.0,56200.0,42900.0,40800.0,45700.0,44100.0,46300.0,50200.0,51300.0,48400.0,44300.0,46200.0,51400.0,54100.0,40200.0,41800.0,43400.0,41900.0,44200.0,47900.0,48600.0,46100.0,42300.0,44100.0,49200.0,51800.0,38600.0,36400.0,39900.0,39100.0,41800.0,46200.0,47200.0,45200.0,41300.0,45300.0,67200.0,55100.0,37200.0,35300.0,38800.0,37900.0,40900.0,45800.0,46700.0,44600.0,40600.0,42600.0,47800.0,50200.0,35800.0,33900.0,37200.0,36300.0,39200.0,43700.0,44500.0,42400.0,38800.0,40900.0,46200.0,48600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[43000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50000.0,47000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,48000.0,49000.0,49000.0,36000.0,42000.0,44000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,47000.0,110000.0,155000.0,85000.0,55000.0,43000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,46000.0,47000.0,58000.0,35000.0,45000.0,47000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,50000.0,51000.0,125000.0,70000.0,52000.0,46000.0,85000.0,165000.0,125000.0,95000.0,70000.0,62000.0,52000.0,51000.0,52000.0,42000.0,37000.0,38000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,27000.0,32000.0,33000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,35000.0,44000.0,64000.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,24000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,23000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[9700.0,9300.0,9500.0,9700.0,10500.0,13700.0,14100.0,13100.0,11000.0,10000.0,10700.0,14600.0,9800.0,9400.0,9600.0,9800.0,10600.0,14000.0,14400.0,13300.0,11200.0,10200.0,10900.0,14900.0,9600.0,9200.0,9500.0,9700.0,10400.0,13700.0,14000.0,13000.0,10900.0,10000.0,10700.0,14500.0,9900.0,9400.0,9700.0,9900.0,10700.0,14300.0,14700.0,13600.0,11400.0,10400.0,19500.0,25000.0,14100.0,12500.0,13100.0,13500.0,14000.0,17400.0,18000.0,16700.0,14000.0,12800.0,13700.0,19200.0,13000.0,11700.0,12200.0,12700.0,13400.0,16600.0,17100.0,15900.0,13300.0,12100.0,12900.0,18000.0,12500.0,11300.0,11800.0,12200.0,13000.0,15900.0,16400.0,15200.0,12700.0,11600.0,12400.0,17400.0,12900.0,11700.0,12200.0,12800.0,14400.0,24500.0,20500.0,17300.0,14500.0,13000.0,14200.0,20500.0,13400.0,12100.0,12700.0,13100.0,14000.0,17600.0,18100.0,16900.0,14200.0,13000.0,14600.0,20000.0,14300.0,12900.0,13500.0,14100.0,15200.0,18900.0,19400.0,29500.0,18700.0,16600.0,37000.0,39000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,5400.0,6200.0,5300.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4800.0,5100.0,4700.0,4400.0,4700.0,5300.0,6000.0,5200.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4800.0,5000.0,4600.0,4300.0,4600.0,5200.0,5800.0,5000.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4800.0,6200.0,5600.0,4800.0,4400.0,4700.0,6000.0,6400.0,5400.0,4800.0,5600.0,5800.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,5100.0,5700.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4600.0,4700.0,4400.0,4100.0,4300.0,4900.0,5400.0,4700.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,5000.0,4700.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,4800.0,5300.0,4600.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4400.0,4500.0,4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,4700.0,5100.0,4500.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4500.0,4400.0,4100.0,3800.0,4000.0,4600.0,5000.0,4400.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,4400.0,4800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[84000.0,60000.0,73000.0,75000.0,84000.0,115000.0,128000.0,108000.0,63000.0,73000.0,94000.0,123000.0,92000.0,66000.0,80000.0,82000.0,92000.0,125000.0,139000.0,118000.0,66000.0,75000.0,110000.0,139000.0,98000.0,70000.0,82000.0,84000.0,103000.0,134000.0,151000.0,124000.0,70000.0,79000.0,110000.0,141000.0,121000.0,86000.0,103000.0,104000.0,129000.0,176000.0,195000.0,154000.0,86000.0,98000.0,146000.0,210000.0,148000.0,97000.0,104000.0,118000.0,140000.0,178000.0,190000.0,165000.0,92000.0,104000.0,156000.0,200000.0,121000.0,86000.0,114000.0,102000.0,121000.0,150000.0,166000.0,145000.0,81000.0,92000.0,128000.0,166000.0,128000.0,91000.0,119000.0,108000.0,128000.0,163000.0,179000.0,151000.0,89000.0,97000.0,130000.0,169000.0,123000.0,89000.0,100000.0,106000.0,128000.0,158000.0,171000.0,148000.0,89000.0,100000.0,148000.0,176000.0,124000.0,87000.0,94000.0,109000.0,131000.0,168000.0,184000.0,148000.0,88000.0,94000.0,128000.0,164000.0,118000.0,84000.0,97000.0,105000.0,125000.0,159000.0,172000.0,143000.0,84000.0,97000.0,128000.0,167000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[8500.0,7900.0,8800.0,8200.0,8600.0,9400.0,10100.0,9200.0,8000.0,8300.0,9100.0,10200.0,8200.0,7600.0,8100.0,7800.0,8000.0,9000.0,9500.0,8700.0,7500.0,7900.0,8600.0,9700.0,7800.0,7400.0,7900.0,7600.0,8000.0,9100.0,9500.0,8800.0,7700.0,8200.0,11200.0,10100.0,7900.0,7500.0,8100.0,7800.0,8200.0,9400.0,9800.0,9000.0,7900.0,8300.0,12800.0,11900.0,9000.0,8300.0,9200.0,10600.0,11200.0,10900.0,11800.0,10500.0,9000.0,9300.0,9800.0,10800.0,8700.0,7900.0,8300.0,8000.0,8200.0,9000.0,9400.0,8600.0,7500.0,7800.0,8300.0,9200.0,7600.0,7200.0,7700.0,7400.0,7600.0,8400.0,8900.0,8100.0,7100.0,7400.0,8000.0,8800.0,7500.0,7000.0,7600.0,7300.0,7600.0,8500.0,9000.0,8200.0,7200.0,7800.0,10600.0,9500.0,7100.0,6600.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,7800.0,8300.0,7600.0,6600.0,6900.0,7400.0,8200.0,6800.0,6300.0,6700.0,6500.0,6700.0,7500.0,8000.0,7300.0,6400.0,6700.0,7200.0,7900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1450.0,1300.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1350.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1400.0,1200.0,1150.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1050.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,900.0,930.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,820.0,820.0,850.0,860.0,820.0,800.0,820.0,840.0,900.0,800.0,760.0,780.0,740.0,740.0,760.0,780.0,740.0,720.0,740.0,1000.0,850.0,780.0,720.0,720.0,680.0,680.0,700.0,710.0,680.0,660.0,680.0,700.0,760.0,700.0,660.0,660.0,620.0,620.0,640.0,650.0,620.0,600.0,610.0,630.0,680.0]}},{"title":"Fritz Haber","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Fritz Haber\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[22725,18562,17632,17336,21259,13644,14791,12951,21896,18293,20532,19188,20420,48111,22363,31511,34503,161931,51066,26491,29093,31251,24522,26216,23177,22371,24489,26555,23531,19024,20956,31243,27652,23802,26041,22592,20970,19881,22159,20260,29449,16743,15604,19916,23366,20802,19808,16454,25302,19313,18620,20843,19477,21994,17832,18758,22643,21702,22153,19155,18338,18798,24752,23101,23422,20268,16266,15922,19206,21091,21344,18368,19145,18160,20117,18290,19739,15262,219965,118731,53286,109228,62980,41619,35854,29850,35151,38423,40232,34013,36460,36824,29172,53082,38806,38740,39147,38795,38146,43322,43746,28668,24165,25138,30877,44164,31612,37915,33441,35248,46896,38848,34196,26200,30363,37132,32642,33663,28066,28578],"flat_reference_value":16922.404872815474,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[39000.0,40000.0,43000.0,41000.0,39000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,36000.0,41000.0,42000.0,35000.0,39000.0,41000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,43000.0,44000.0,37000.0,41000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,46000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,44000.0,45000.0,37000.0,41000.0,42000.0,46000.0,48000.0,44000.0,39000.0,36000.0,37000.0,41000.0,46000.0,47000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,45000.0,44000.0,41000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,40000.0,45000.0,46000.0,39000.0,42000.0,41000.0,45000.0,44000.0,41000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,44000.0,51000.0,47000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,45000.0,48000.0,42000.0,37000.0,35000.0,37000.0,40000.0,45000.0,46000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,44000.0,45000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,43000.0,42000.0,39000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,43000.0,44000.0,37000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[82000.0,86000.0,89000.0,88000.0,87000.0,74000.0,71000.0,75000.0,84000.0,92000.0,94000.0,85000.0,88000.0,89000.0,95000.0,91000.0,92000.0,128000.0,94000.0,81000.0,88000.0,96000.0,98000.0,86000.0,91000.0,88000.0,94000.0,92000.0,90000.0,76000.0,73000.0,76000.0,85000.0,95000.0,124000.0,92000.0,89000.0,86000.0,92000.0,89000.0,88000.0,74000.0,72000.0,75000.0,83000.0,91000.0,93000.0,84000.0,96000.0,89000.0,86000.0,91000.0,90000.0,78000.0,76000.0,115000.0,87000.0,94000.0,95000.0,86000.0,89000.0,86000.0,92000.0,90000.0,88000.0,75000.0,73000.0,76000.0,84000.0,91000.0,92000.0,83000.0,88000.0,86000.0,98000.0,95000.0,265000.0,155000.0,108000.0,96000.0,112000.0,230000.0,148000.0,110000.0,104000.0,96000.0,101000.0,95000.0,93000.0,82000.0,145000.0,132000.0,94000.0,96000.0,95000.0,85000.0,88000.0,84000.0,89000.0,86000.0,84000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,78000.0,85000.0,86000.0,77000.0,80000.0,77000.0,82000.0,79000.0,78000.0,67000.0,65000.0,67000.0,73000.0,79000.0,80000.0,72000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[68400.0,72100.0,79500.0,78200.0,73400.0,58900.0,55100.0,59800.0,74200.0,81500.0,84100.0,63200.0,69100.0,73800.0,81200.0,79100.0,74500.0,60200.0,56800.0,61300.0,75600.0,83400.0,85700.0,64900.0,71200.0,75400.0,82900.0,80100.0,76300.0,61800.0,58200.0,62900.0,77800.0,86200.0,96500.0,68100.0,73400.0,77100.0,84300.0,81500.0,77200.0,62400.0,59100.0,63800.0,78900.0,87400.0,88200.0,66500.0,74800.0,78200.0,84900.0,89400.0,87100.0,68500.0,63400.0,67200.0,81100.0,88300.0,89100.0,67900.0,76100.0,79500.0,86200.0,83400.0,79100.0,64800.0,60500.0,65100.0,80200.0,89300.0,91200.0,68400.0,75800.0,78400.0,85100.0,82600.0,78900.0,63500.0,59700.0,64200.0,81400.0,128400.0,139200.0,94500.0,84100.0,82300.0,88400.0,84200.0,80100.0,66200.0,89300.0,94500.0,83100.0,88900.0,89500.0,67800.0,74500.0,77800.0,84200.0,81400.0,77600.0,62900.0,58800.0,63400.0,78200.0,85600.0,86900.0,65100.0,72800.0,76100.0,82500.0,79800.0,75900.0,61400.0,57600.0,62100.0,76800.0,84100.0,85200.0,64300.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,54000.0,52000.0,44000.0,40000.0,40000.0,47000.0,52000.0,53000.0,44000.0,50000.0,53000.0,54000.0,51000.0,50000.0,42000.0,39000.0,39000.0,46000.0,51000.0,51000.0,42000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,41000.0,38000.0,38000.0,44000.0,49000.0,49000.0,41000.0,46000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,43000.0,47000.0,47000.0,40000.0,45000.0,46000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,42000.0,45000.0,45000.0,38000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,39000.0,42000.0,42000.0,36000.0,40000.0,42000.0,48000.0,44000.0,41000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,37000.0,40000.0,40000.0,34000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,33000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,75000.0,50000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,33000.0,36000.0,36000.0,31000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33000.0,29000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[72000.0,74000.0,76000.0,78000.0,76000.0,64000.0,60000.0,60000.0,68000.0,74000.0,76000.0,74000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,125000.0,190000.0,110000.0,78000.0,70000.0,72000.0,76000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,78000.0,66000.0,64000.0,63000.0,68000.0,74000.0,80000.0,78000.0,78000.0,74000.0,76000.0,76000.0,76000.0,64000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,72000.0,74000.0,74000.0,76000.0,72000.0,76000.0,86000.0,84000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0,74000.0,76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,76000.0,78000.0,74000.0,72000.0,64000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,70000.0,72000.0,72000.0,74000.0,72000.0,78000.0,74000.0,72000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,95000.0,330000.0,160000.0,115000.0,105000.0,92000.0,92000.0,86000.0,84000.0,74000.0,82000.0,84000.0,78000.0,80000.0,80000.0,80000.0,82000.0,76000.0,78000.0,74000.0,74000.0,66000.0,64000.0,64000.0,68000.0,72000.0,72000.0,74000.0,76000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,70000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,64000.0,68000.0,68000.0,68000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[30500.0,29100.0,31800.0,30600.0,34300.0,34400.0,24700.0,24600.0,29200.0,29000.0,29100.0,27600.0,31500.0,30100.0,33200.0,32700.0,35700.0,35800.0,25600.0,25500.0,30300.0,30200.0,30100.0,28600.0,33100.0,31600.0,34900.0,33300.0,37300.0,37400.0,26900.0,26800.0,31700.0,31700.0,32600.0,30500.0,32600.0,31100.0,34300.0,32700.0,36700.0,36800.0,26500.0,26400.0,31200.0,31100.0,31100.0,30100.0,32700.0,31200.0,39600.0,37100.0,34100.0,33300.0,27100.0,26600.0,31300.0,31300.0,31100.0,29600.0,33200.0,31700.0,34900.0,33300.0,37300.0,37400.0,27000.0,26900.0,34600.0,33600.0,31700.0,30100.0,35800.0,34200.0,37600.0,36300.0,40200.0,40300.0,29100.0,29000.0,34200.0,34100.0,34100.0,32600.0,35300.0,33700.0,37000.0,35400.0,39700.0,39800.0,33600.0,33100.0,33600.0,33500.0,33400.0,31900.0,32700.0,31100.0,34300.0,32800.0,36800.0,36900.0,26500.0,26400.0,31200.0,31200.0,30800.0,29300.0,27400.0,26100.0,28700.0,27400.0,30800.0,30900.0,22300.0,22200.0,25100.0,24900.0,24800.0,23600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[27800.0,28500.0,29800.0,26400.0,24200.0,19500.0,17200.0,18300.0,23500.0,27900.0,28100.0,21400.0,28900.0,29300.0,31200.0,28500.0,32500.0,21000.0,18500.0,19200.0,24600.0,29100.0,29400.0,22100.0,29500.0,30100.0,31800.0,28200.0,26100.0,21500.0,19200.0,20100.0,25800.0,30500.0,38200.0,33500.0,30200.0,30800.0,32500.0,29100.0,26800.0,22100.0,19800.0,20800.0,26500.0,31200.0,31500.0,23800.0,31500.0,32200.0,36500.0,38200.0,34800.0,26100.0,22800.0,23500.0,29500.0,33800.0,34200.0,26400.0,31800.0,32500.0,33800.0,30200.0,27600.0,22800.0,20500.0,21600.0,27800.0,32100.0,32600.0,24500.0,32500.0,33200.0,34800.0,31200.0,28500.0,23500.0,21200.0,22400.0,28600.0,33200.0,33500.0,25200.0,33800.0,34500.0,36200.0,32800.0,29800.0,26800.0,68500.0,58200.0,36500.0,35200.0,34800.0,26800.0,34500.0,35200.0,36800.0,33100.0,30200.0,24800.0,22500.0,23600.0,29800.0,34500.0,34800.0,26200.0,34800.0,35200.0,36900.0,33200.0,30100.0,24900.0,22600.0,23700.0,29900.0,34600.0,34900.0,26300.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[25200.0,23900.0,24600.0,23300.0,22600.0,20900.0,19300.0,20600.0,24200.0,26300.0,24900.0,22100.0,26800.0,25300.0,26100.0,24700.0,24000.0,22300.0,20500.0,21900.0,25800.0,28100.0,26400.0,23500.0,28400.0,26800.0,27700.0,26200.0,25500.0,23600.0,21800.0,23200.0,27300.0,29800.0,31000.0,25000.0,30000.0,28300.0,29300.0,27700.0,26900.0,24900.0,23000.0,24500.0,28900.0,31500.0,29600.0,26400.0,33800.0,31800.0,39000.0,43500.0,38800.0,30500.0,26000.0,27500.0,32600.0,35400.0,33400.0,29700.0,35400.0,33400.0,34400.0,32700.0,31800.0,29300.0,27100.0,28900.0,34100.0,37100.0,34900.0,31100.0,37500.0,35400.0,42000.0,45500.0,41000.0,34000.0,29000.0,30400.0,36200.0,39300.0,37000.0,33000.0,36400.0,34400.0,35400.0,33700.0,32700.0,30200.0,34500.0,33800.0,35200.0,38100.0,35900.0,32100.0,34800.0,32900.0,33800.0,32200.0,31300.0,28900.0,26800.0,28400.0,33600.0,36400.0,34400.0,30700.0,33700.0,31900.0,32800.0,31200.0,30300.0,28000.0,26000.0,27500.0,32600.0,35300.0,33400.0,29800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[47000.0,45000.0,47000.0,46000.0,43000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,47000.0,50000.0,50000.0,54000.0,50000.0,47000.0,49000.0,75000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,49000.0,52000.0,52000.0,56000.0,63000.0,60000.0,63000.0,100000.0,57000.0,51000.0,48000.0,51000.0,63000.0,66000.0,160000.0,80000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,56000.0,52000.0,80000.0,44000.0,47000.0,58000.0,61000.0,61000.0,65000.0,63000.0,60000.0,66000.0,63000.0,57000.0,51000.0,48000.0,51000.0,63000.0,66000.0,66000.0,72000.0,65000.0,62000.0,65000.0,62000.0,59000.0,53000.0,50000.0,53000.0,65000.0,68000.0,68000.0,74000.0,79000.0,75000.0,150000.0,110000.0,75000.0,64000.0,60000.0,64000.0,79000.0,82000.0,82000.0,90000.0,74000.0,70000.0,74000.0,70000.0,67000.0,60000.0,56000.0,60000.0,74000.0,77000.0,77000.0,84000.0,79000.0,75000.0,79000.0,75000.0,71000.0,64000.0,60000.0,64000.0,79000.0,82000.0,82000.0,90000.0,82000.0,78000.0,82000.0,78000.0,74000.0,66000.0,62000.0,66000.0,82000.0,85000.0,85000.0,94000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[18900.0,19100.0,21300.0,19900.0,20500.0,18700.0,16500.0,18500.0,20900.0,20900.0,19500.0,19300.0,20000.0,20000.0,21600.0,27100.0,20400.0,19800.0,17200.0,18400.0,22300.0,21000.0,20800.0,19200.0,21100.0,20900.0,23200.0,26400.0,22100.0,20000.0,19300.0,20500.0,23200.0,27500.0,28500.0,32000.0,24300.0,20600.0,22900.0,21400.0,21800.0,20000.0,17700.0,19700.0,22900.0,21800.0,21400.0,22200.0,21800.0,22700.0,27900.0,31200.0,28600.0,22600.0,19200.0,20900.0,25300.0,23600.0,22500.0,22200.0,20900.0,22200.0,23100.0,23300.0,21800.0,20900.0,18200.0,20400.0,23600.0,22400.0,22900.0,21800.0,20200.0,21000.0,26200.0,24300.0,21000.0,19800.0,17600.0,19700.0,27800.0,24900.0,21600.0,20400.0,19100.0,19100.0,21100.0,20300.0,20300.0,18300.0,19200.0,18100.0,21500.0,20100.0,19900.0,19700.0,18800.0,17300.0,19100.0,19300.0,18000.0,17200.0,15000.0,16800.0,19000.0,18900.0,18000.0,17600.0,16000.0,16300.0,17800.0,17000.0,17200.0,15200.0,13800.0,15500.0,17800.0,17200.0,16800.0,16200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[22900.0,24700.0,27200.0,26700.0,25500.0,23800.0,21700.0,20500.0,26200.0,27600.0,27700.0,21000.0,24200.0,26000.0,28500.0,28000.0,26800.0,25100.0,22500.0,21800.0,27500.0,28900.0,28000.0,22300.0,25600.0,27400.0,29900.0,29400.0,28200.0,26500.0,23900.0,23200.0,28900.0,31800.0,34400.0,38000.0,27900.0,29700.0,32200.0,31700.0,30500.0,28800.0,26200.0,25500.0,31200.0,32600.0,31700.0,26000.0,31400.0,33200.0,37700.0,36700.0,34000.0,32300.0,29700.0,29000.0,34700.0,36100.0,35200.0,29500.0,33600.0,35400.0,37900.0,37400.0,36200.0,34500.0,31900.0,31200.0,36900.0,38300.0,37400.0,31700.0,32400.0,34200.0,41200.0,39700.0,37500.0,34300.0,30700.0,30000.0,35700.0,37100.0,36200.0,30500.0,31600.0,33400.0,35900.0,35400.0,34200.0,32500.0,31700.0,30400.0,34900.0,36300.0,35400.0,29700.0,30200.0,32000.0,34500.0,34000.0,32800.0,31100.0,28500.0,27800.0,33500.0,34900.0,34000.0,28300.0,31000.0,32800.0,37300.0,40800.0,35100.0,31900.0,29300.0,28600.0,34300.0,35700.0,34800.0,29100.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[114000.0,101000.0,124000.0,111000.0,97000.0,87000.0,80000.0,83000.0,101000.0,107000.0,122000.0,152000.0,125000.0,110000.0,136000.0,210000.0,106000.0,94000.0,88000.0,90000.0,110000.0,116000.0,133000.0,166000.0,135000.0,119000.0,148000.0,205000.0,115000.0,102000.0,95000.0,97000.0,118000.0,126000.0,143000.0,179000.0,133000.0,117000.0,145000.0,129000.0,113000.0,100000.0,93000.0,95000.0,117000.0,124000.0,141000.0,177000.0,146000.0,128000.0,160000.0,150000.0,124000.0,110000.0,102000.0,105000.0,129000.0,136000.0,156000.0,194000.0,155000.0,136000.0,170000.0,152000.0,132000.0,117000.0,109000.0,111000.0,136000.0,144000.0,165000.0,206000.0,165000.0,144000.0,180000.0,270000.0,139000.0,124000.0,115000.0,118000.0,144000.0,152000.0,175000.0,218000.0,162000.0,142000.0,178000.0,157000.0,137000.0,122000.0,113000.0,116000.0,142000.0,150000.0,172000.0,215000.0,175000.0,153000.0,195000.0,181000.0,148000.0,131000.0,122000.0,125000.0,153000.0,163000.0,186000.0,231000.0,183000.0,161000.0,204000.0,178000.0,155000.0,138000.0,128000.0,131000.0,160000.0,171000.0,195000.0,243000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[6500.0,6800.0,7200.0,7000.0,7000.0,5500.0,4800.0,5200.0,6800.0,7500.0,7300.0,6000.0,6800.0,7000.0,7500.0,8200.0,7400.0,5800.0,5000.0,5400.0,7000.0,7800.0,7600.0,6300.0,7000.0,7200.0,7800.0,8800.0,7600.0,6000.0,5200.0,5600.0,7200.0,8200.0,8000.0,6400.0,7200.0,7400.0,8000.0,8000.0,7600.0,6000.0,5400.0,5700.0,7400.0,8300.0,8100.0,6500.0,7300.0,7500.0,8200.0,9000.0,8200.0,6600.0,5800.0,6000.0,7600.0,8400.0,8200.0,6700.0,7500.0,7700.0,8300.0,8300.0,7700.0,6200.0,5600.0,5900.0,7500.0,8300.0,8200.0,6600.0,7400.0,7800.0,8600.0,8200.0,7600.0,6100.0,5500.0,5800.0,7400.0,8200.0,8000.0,6500.0,7400.0,7600.0,8200.0,8400.0,7800.0,6400.0,7600.0,6800.0,7600.0,8800.0,8400.0,6800.0,7500.0,7700.0,8300.0,8200.0,7600.0,6100.0,5600.0,5800.0,7400.0,8200.0,8000.0,6500.0,7300.0,7500.0,8100.0,8000.0,7400.0,5900.0,5400.0,5700.0,7200.0,8000.0,7800.0,6300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[20850.0,21050.0,19640.0,18910.0,20320.0,19150.0,18340.0,18720.0,22610.0,21180.0,20090.0,18670.0,22500.0,22100.0,20600.0,20500.0,21450.0,20400.0,19500.0,19650.0,24050.0,22750.0,21250.0,20050.0,26450.0,26350.0,24500.0,24150.0,25900.0,24300.0,23200.0,23450.0,37200.0,33600.0,31100.0,28700.0,25150.0,24450.0,23300.0,22600.0,24100.0,23150.0,21350.0,22300.0,26900.0,25050.0,23850.0,22450.0,27700.0,27250.0,29050.0,26650.0,27300.0,25200.0,23700.0,24700.0,29750.0,27550.0,26600.0,24450.0,28700.0,28500.0,26600.0,26250.0,28000.0,26350.0,24650.0,25500.0,31250.0,29100.0,27650.0,25550.0,30150.0,30050.0,31950.0,29200.0,30350.0,28100.0,26150.0,26900.0,32850.0,30700.0,29250.0,27300.0,32100.0,31650.0,29450.0,29250.0,30800.0,29100.0,27350.0,28400.0,34150.0,32350.0,30700.0,28900.0,35400.0,35000.0,31950.0,31250.0,33050.0,31050.0,29200.0,30200.0,36750.0,34400.0,32800.0,30650.0,36300.0,35900.0,33500.0,33100.0,35250.0,33400.0,31050.0,32150.0,38950.0,36600.0,34850.0,33600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3200.0,3050.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2750.0,2850.0,3300.0,3350.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3250.0,3150.0,2950.0,2850.0,2700.0,2800.0,3200.0,3250.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3150.0,3400.0,3250.0,3100.0,3000.0,2850.0,2950.0,3450.0,3600.0,4100.0,3500.0,3350.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3150.0,3050.0,2900.0,3000.0,3400.0,3450.0,3550.0,3300.0,3200.0,3050.0,3250.0,3150.0,3000.0,2950.0,2800.0,2900.0,3250.0,3300.0,3350.0,3150.0,3150.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,2950.0,2850.0,2700.0,2800.0,3150.0,3200.0,3250.0,3050.0,3000.0,2850.0,3100.0,2950.0,2800.0,2700.0,2550.0,2650.0,3000.0,3050.0,3100.0,2900.0,3050.0,2900.0,3150.0,3000.0,2850.0,2800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3250.0,3300.0,3350.0,3100.0,2900.0,2750.0,3000.0,2850.0,2700.0,2600.0,2450.0,2550.0,2900.0,2950.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2650.0,2900.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2350.0,2450.0,2800.0,2850.0,2900.0,2700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3870.0,4300.0,4644.0,4386.0,4300.0,3956.0,3655.0,3655.0,4644.0,4816.0,4558.0,3956.0,3690.0,4100.0,4428.0,4182.0,4100.0,3772.0,3485.0,3485.0,4428.0,4592.0,4346.0,3772.0,3510.0,3900.0,4212.0,3978.0,3900.0,3588.0,3315.0,3315.0,4212.0,4368.0,4134.0,3588.0,3330.0,3700.0,3996.0,3774.0,3700.0,3404.0,3145.0,3145.0,3996.0,4144.0,3922.0,3404.0,3420.0,3800.0,4104.0,3876.0,3800.0,3496.0,3230.0,3230.0,4104.0,4256.0,4028.0,3496.0,3060.0,3400.0,3672.0,3468.0,3400.0,3128.0,2890.0,2890.0,3672.0,3808.0,3604.0,3128.0,2880.0,3200.0,3456.0,3264.0,3200.0,2944.0,2720.0,2720.0,3456.0,3584.0,3392.0,2944.0,2610.0,2900.0,3132.0,2958.0,2900.0,2668.0,2465.0,2465.0,3132.0,3248.0,3074.0,2668.0,2340.0,2600.0,2808.0,2652.0,2600.0,2392.0,2210.0,2210.0,2808.0,2912.0,2756.0,2392.0,2160.0,2400.0,2592.0,2448.0,2400.0,2208.0,2040.0,2040.0,2592.0,2688.0,2544.0,2208.0]}},{"title":"Nudity","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Nudity\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[128188,124962,127534,127017,134105,125699,135218,138133,115290,111229,113432,115484,121041,111067,116481,114391,116168,107434,116412,110831,94856,103398,106609,97931,113991,104470,109216,98056,110397,108644,107350,102246,91976,89638,100934,104152,100634,85087,100243,99116,82231,70103,69907,72691,69145,80816,98134,97744,96963,81804,82572,88361,85170,77130,80670,82608,77600,86088,83677,89996,89098,78746,92255,100624,103250,91617,85617,85768,85822,80332,77701,79495,92920,71368,80208,75771,69450,63852,62306,62386,62397,70249,65492,68426,70433,61081,70002,68967,71851,72648,76388,74097,72213,73103,74732,82150,84300,85310,80895,76473,83235,73747,74113,77564,74003,84931,84149,87417,90335,81252,86118,86403,90129,80451,81901,86530,74765,82083,83450,90458],"flat_reference_value":16820.291487384897,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[105000.0,101000.0,112000.0,110000.0,118000.0,126000.0,134000.0,131000.0,117000.0,116000.0,107000.0,106000.0,108000.0,99000.0,112000.0,110000.0,119000.0,128000.0,136000.0,130000.0,117000.0,113000.0,106000.0,105000.0,109000.0,98000.0,111000.0,109000.0,117000.0,126000.0,133000.0,128000.0,115000.0,112000.0,104000.0,103000.0,105000.0,96000.0,108000.0,105000.0,113000.0,121000.0,130000.0,125000.0,112000.0,109000.0,101000.0,100000.0,104000.0,97000.0,112000.0,120000.0,124000.0,129000.0,136000.0,130000.0,116000.0,113000.0,105000.0,105000.0,108000.0,97000.0,108000.0,105000.0,112000.0,121000.0,128000.0,123000.0,110000.0,107000.0,100000.0,99000.0,101000.0,91000.0,102000.0,100000.0,107000.0,116000.0,123000.0,119000.0,106000.0,103000.0,96000.0,95000.0,97000.0,87000.0,98000.0,96000.0,102000.0,111000.0,117000.0,113000.0,101000.0,98000.0,91000.0,90000.0,92000.0,85000.0,93000.0,90000.0,96000.0,104000.0,110000.0,106000.0,94000.0,91000.0,85000.0,84000.0,86000.0,77000.0,85000.0,82000.0,88000.0,95000.0,101000.0,97000.0,86000.0,83000.0,77000.0,76000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[204500.0,186200.0,198400.0,191300.0,197800.0,202100.0,214600.0,208900.0,192400.0,195100.0,187600.0,193800.0,199200.0,178500.0,192700.0,185900.0,191400.0,194800.0,206300.0,198700.0,183200.0,186500.0,179400.0,184100.0,188600.0,163400.0,171800.0,164200.0,168900.0,172500.0,183400.0,176800.0,161900.0,165300.0,158700.0,163200.0,168400.0,151200.0,164700.0,158900.0,163500.0,167800.0,178200.0,171600.0,157400.0,160800.0,154300.0,159600.0,164200.0,152800.0,174500.0,189300.0,192600.0,186400.0,194800.0,185200.0,169700.0,171400.0,163800.0,167900.0,171200.0,151600.0,163900.0,157200.0,161800.0,164500.0,173900.0,167400.0,152800.0,155600.0,148200.0,152400.0,156300.0,138400.0,149700.0,143500.0,147800.0,151200.0,159600.0,153400.0,139800.0,142100.0,135600.0,139200.0,144800.0,127900.0,138200.0,131600.0,134900.0,136400.0,143800.0,135200.0,123400.0,125800.0,119500.0,122900.0,126400.0,115200.0,122700.0,117300.0,120800.0,123500.0,131200.0,125600.0,114800.0,117200.0,111400.0,114900.0,118200.0,116800.0,115400.0,109800.0,113200.0,115900.0,122600.0,117400.0,107200.0,109500.0,104100.0,107600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[108400.0,101200.0,104500.0,99800.0,97300.0,92100.0,95600.0,94200.0,91800.0,96400.0,93200.0,95100.0,101800.0,92400.0,96700.0,91500.0,89400.0,86300.0,89100.0,88200.0,85700.0,89600.0,87300.0,88900.0,93200.0,84600.0,89100.0,86200.0,84100.0,81500.0,84700.0,83900.0,81200.0,85800.0,82700.0,84200.0,88700.0,81200.0,85400.0,82100.0,79800.0,77200.0,80600.0,79100.0,76800.0,80900.0,78300.0,79600.0,83500.0,79200.0,95400.0,107800.0,98600.0,85200.0,87400.0,84900.0,80100.0,82300.0,79800.0,82100.0,84200.0,75600.0,80100.0,76400.0,74900.0,71800.0,75200.0,73900.0,71100.0,74600.0,72800.0,74100.0,77800.0,69400.0,74500.0,71200.0,69800.0,66700.0,70200.0,68900.0,66400.0,70100.0,67900.0,69200.0,72400.0,65100.0,69800.0,66900.0,65400.0,62800.0,65900.0,64700.0,62400.0,66100.0,64200.0,65500.0,68900.0,63400.0,82700.0,65800.0,63900.0,61200.0,64800.0,63900.0,61100.0,64500.0,62800.0,63700.0,66500.0,59800.0,64200.0,62100.0,60900.0,58400.0,61800.0,60700.0,58300.0,61900.0,59900.0,61200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[128000.0,121000.0,127000.0,124000.0,126000.0,129000.0,134000.0,132000.0,122000.0,121000.0,118000.0,117000.0,120000.0,111000.0,118000.0,116000.0,117000.0,120000.0,125000.0,123000.0,113000.0,112000.0,109000.0,108000.0,111000.0,102000.0,108000.0,106000.0,107000.0,110000.0,115000.0,113000.0,104000.0,103000.0,100000.0,99000.0,103000.0,95000.0,101000.0,99000.0,100000.0,103000.0,107000.0,105000.0,97000.0,97000.0,95000.0,94000.0,98000.0,92000.0,104000.0,113000.0,110000.0,106000.0,108000.0,105000.0,96000.0,95000.0,93000.0,94000.0,97000.0,89000.0,94000.0,92000.0,92000.0,94000.0,98000.0,96000.0,88000.0,87000.0,85000.0,84000.0,87000.0,80000.0,85000.0,83000.0,84000.0,86000.0,90000.0,88000.0,81000.0,80000.0,78000.0,77000.0,80000.0,74000.0,79000.0,77000.0,78000.0,80000.0,84000.0,82000.0,75000.0,74000.0,72000.0,71000.0,74000.0,69000.0,73000.0,71000.0,72000.0,74000.0,78000.0,76000.0,70000.0,69000.0,67000.0,66000.0,68000.0,63000.0,67000.0,65000.0,66000.0,68000.0,71000.0,70000.0,64000.0,63000.0,61000.0,60000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[205000.0,190000.0,195000.0,185000.0,188000.0,182000.0,190000.0,188000.0,172000.0,170000.0,165000.0,168000.0,178000.0,158000.0,165000.0,158000.0,160000.0,155000.0,160000.0,157000.0,145000.0,145000.0,140000.0,142000.0,150000.0,133000.0,140000.0,134000.0,135000.0,131000.0,136000.0,133000.0,124000.0,125000.0,120000.0,122000.0,130000.0,115000.0,122000.0,117000.0,119000.0,115000.0,120000.0,118000.0,110000.0,110000.0,106000.0,108000.0,115000.0,105000.0,120000.0,135000.0,132000.0,120000.0,118000.0,114000.0,105000.0,104000.0,100000.0,103000.0,110000.0,98000.0,104000.0,100000.0,101000.0,98000.0,101000.0,99000.0,92000.0,93000.0,90000.0,92000.0,98000.0,87000.0,93000.0,89000.0,90000.0,87000.0,90000.0,88000.0,82000.0,83000.0,80000.0,82000.0,88000.0,79000.0,84000.0,81000.0,83000.0,80000.0,83000.0,81000.0,76000.0,77000.0,74000.0,76000.0,81000.0,74000.0,78000.0,75000.0,77000.0,75000.0,78000.0,77000.0,72000.0,73000.0,70000.0,72000.0,77000.0,69000.0,74000.0,72000.0,73000.0,70000.0,72000.0,71000.0,67000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[115200.0,107400.0,116800.0,110900.0,121300.0,141500.0,128900.0,122600.0,110700.0,105800.0,102300.0,109400.0,109800.0,101600.0,109200.0,104300.0,114700.0,132400.0,120800.0,114200.0,103100.0,98700.0,95900.0,101800.0,103400.0,95800.0,102900.0,98600.0,108900.0,125300.0,114700.0,107900.0,97600.0,93800.0,90700.0,96900.0,97800.0,90600.0,96900.0,93100.0,102800.0,118600.0,108900.0,101800.0,92300.0,88700.0,85900.0,91700.0,92400.0,87800.0,104300.0,118100.0,112600.0,121400.0,106900.0,100200.0,91800.0,88400.0,87300.0,92600.0,90300.0,84200.0,88900.0,85700.0,79400.0,85600.0,77900.0,74800.0,68200.0,66300.0,64700.0,68900.0,66200.0,61400.0,65300.0,62700.0,68900.0,80400.0,72100.0,68300.0,61600.0,59200.0,57400.0,61200.0,62100.0,58200.0,61900.0,59300.0,65800.0,76500.0,69400.0,65200.0,66100.0,59400.0,57800.0,60700.0,60300.0,55700.0,59100.0,56900.0,63200.0,73600.0,70200.0,78300.0,60100.0,56400.0,54600.0,57500.0,55200.0,50400.0,53100.0,51000.0,56600.0,64800.0,57900.0,55600.0,50800.0,48900.0,47600.0,50200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[208981.0,179378.0,201045.0,187980.0,201789.0,208150.0,219620.0,208800.0,198350.0,186890.0,190170.0,168970.0,202681.0,173678.0,194925.0,182100.0,195789.0,201670.0,213020.0,202320.0,192350.0,181010.0,184350.0,163570.0,196381.0,167978.0,188805.0,176220.0,189789.0,195190.0,206420.0,195840.0,186350.0,175130.0,178530.0,158170.0,190081.0,162278.0,182685.0,170340.0,183789.0,188710.0,199820.0,189360.0,180350.0,169250.0,172710.0,152770.0,183781.0,156578.0,220706.0,222021.0,213347.0,200453.0,193220.0,182880.0,174350.0,163370.0,166890.0,147370.0,177481.0,150878.0,170445.0,158580.0,171789.0,175750.0,186620.0,176400.0,168350.0,157490.0,161070.0,141970.0,171181.0,145178.0,164325.0,152700.0,165789.0,169270.0,180020.0,169920.0,162350.0,151610.0,155250.0,136570.0,164881.0,139478.0,158205.0,146820.0,159789.0,162790.0,173420.0,163440.0,156350.0,145730.0,149430.0,131170.0,158581.0,133778.0,152085.0,140940.0,153789.0,156310.0,166820.0,156960.0,150350.0,139850.0,143610.0,125770.0,152281.0,128078.0,145965.0,135060.0,147789.0,149830.0,160220.0,150480.0,144350.0,133970.0,137790.0,120370.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[170000.0,153000.0,162000.0,167000.0,179000.0,201000.0,207000.0,190000.0,156000.0,150000.0,150000.0,156000.0,182000.0,164000.0,173000.0,178000.0,191000.0,215000.0,222000.0,204000.0,167000.0,172000.0,168000.0,167000.0,190000.0,167000.0,181000.0,186000.0,200000.0,224000.0,236000.0,222000.0,175000.0,163000.0,162000.0,169000.0,202000.0,182000.0,192000.0,198000.0,212000.0,238000.0,252000.0,230000.0,186000.0,178000.0,178000.0,186000.0,215000.0,205000.0,262000.0,268000.0,245000.0,255000.0,258000.0,245000.0,215000.0,208000.0,210000.0,228000.0,224000.0,202000.0,213000.0,220000.0,235000.0,264000.0,273000.0,251000.0,206000.0,197000.0,197000.0,206000.0,228000.0,205000.0,217000.0,223000.0,239000.0,275000.0,288000.0,265000.0,202000.0,195000.0,196000.0,202000.0,240000.0,216000.0,228000.0,235000.0,252000.0,290000.0,303000.0,278000.0,213000.0,203000.0,204000.0,212000.0,252000.0,227000.0,239000.0,247000.0,265000.0,297000.0,312000.0,288000.0,232000.0,222000.0,222000.0,232000.0,267000.0,240000.0,254000.0,262000.0,280000.0,315000.0,326000.0,299000.0,246000.0,235000.0,235000.0,246000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[140000.0,143000.0,160000.0,155000.0,163000.0,171000.0,174000.0,171000.0,158000.0,152000.0,147000.0,144000.0,135000.0,138000.0,147000.0,150000.0,157500.0,165000.0,168000.0,165000.0,153000.0,147000.0,142500.0,139500.0,130500.0,133400.0,142100.0,145000.0,152250.0,159500.0,162400.0,159500.0,147900.0,142100.0,137750.0,134850.0,126000.0,128800.0,137200.0,140000.0,147000.0,154000.0,156800.0,154000.0,142800.0,137200.0,133000.0,130200.0,135000.0,138000.0,150000.0,165000.0,157500.0,165000.0,168000.0,165000.0,153000.0,147000.0,142500.0,139500.0,130500.0,133400.0,142100.0,145000.0,152250.0,159500.0,162400.0,159500.0,147900.0,142100.0,137750.0,134850.0,124200.0,126960.0,135240.0,138000.0,144900.0,151800.0,154560.0,151800.0,140760.0,135240.0,131100.0,128340.0,115200.0,117760.0,125440.0,128000.0,134400.0,140800.0,143360.0,140800.0,130560.0,125440.0,121600.0,119040.0,109800.0,112240.0,119560.0,122000.0,128100.0,134200.0,136640.0,134200.0,124440.0,119560.0,115900.0,113460.0,106200.0,108560.0,115640.0,118000.0,123900.0,129800.0,132160.0,129800.0,120360.0,115640.0,112100.0,109740.0],"meta/muse-ember":[50440.0,47320.0,64272.0,52520.0,56680.0,57200.0,66352.0,82992.0,53560.0,53040.0,50440.0,50960.0,51410.0,48230.0,60049.0,53530.0,57770.0,58300.0,61480.0,60420.0,54590.0,64872.0,51410.0,51940.0,52380.0,49140.0,55620.0,54540.0,58860.0,59400.0,62640.0,61560.0,55620.0,55080.0,52380.0,58212.0,53350.0,50050.0,56650.0,61105.0,59950.0,60500.0,63800.0,62700.0,56650.0,56100.0,53350.0,53900.0,55775.0,54050.0,74031.0,72594.0,72076.0,63250.0,66700.0,65550.0,59225.0,58650.0,55775.0,56350.0,54320.0,56056.0,57680.0,67872.0,61040.0,61600.0,64960.0,63840.0,64602.0,57120.0,54320.0,54880.0,52865.0,49595.0,56135.0,63302.0,59405.0,65945.0,63220.0,62130.0,56135.0,55590.0,52865.0,58751.0,59122.0,48230.0,54590.0,53530.0,57770.0,67045.0,70702.0,60420.0,60049.0,54060.0,51410.0,51940.0,49955.0,79877.0,53045.0,52015.0,56135.0,70813.0,59740.0,58710.0,59410.0,52530.0,49955.0,50470.0,53350.0,70525.0,59225.0,50500.0,54500.0,55000.0,69600.0,57000.0,51500.0,51000.0,48500.0,49000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[415160.0,410880.0,480900.0,428000.0,436560.0,490000.0,470800.0,466520.0,415160.0,432280.0,415160.0,393760.0,444260.0,439680.0,514600.0,458000.0,490500.0,509800.0,503800.0,499220.0,444260.0,499600.0,444260.0,421360.0,473360.0,468480.0,548300.0,488000.0,517700.0,543100.0,536800.0,531920.0,473360.0,492880.0,473360.0,448960.0,490820.0,485760.0,568500.0,506000.0,577900.0,563200.0,556600.0,551540.0,490820.0,511060.0,490820.0,465520.0,506340.0,501120.0,636300.0,616000.0,532440.0,581000.0,574200.0,568980.0,506340.0,527220.0,506340.0,480240.0,492760.0,487680.0,570800.0,508000.0,533700.0,565400.0,558800.0,620200.0,492760.0,538700.0,492760.0,467360.0,463660.0,458880.0,537100.0,501900.0,487560.0,532000.0,525800.0,521020.0,463660.0,531100.0,491500.0,439760.0,438440.0,433920.0,507900.0,452000.0,461040.0,503100.0,497200.0,492680.0,438440.0,456520.0,438440.0,415840.0,415160.0,410880.0,480900.0,428000.0,458400.0,476400.0,517900.0,489600.0,415160.0,432280.0,415160.0,393760.0,388000.0,380160.0,440500.0,388000.0,391680.0,422900.0,413600.0,405480.0,356960.0,367640.0,349200.0,327520.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1350000.0,1260000.0,1290000.0,1330000.0,1420000.0,1410000.0,1440000.0,1620000.0,1390000.0,1350000.0,1590000.0,1350000.0,1470000.0,1360000.0,1410000.0,1450000.0,1600000.0,1520000.0,1560000.0,1510000.0,1470000.0,1480000.0,1780000.0,1350000.0,1520000.0,1430000.0,1480000.0,1540000.0,1580000.0,1560000.0,1610000.0,1570000.0,1520000.0,1540000.0,1520000.0,1740000.0,1590000.0,1480000.0,1540000.0,1600000.0,1660000.0,1620000.0,1670000.0,1620000.0,1570000.0,1600000.0,1830000.0,1450000.0,1660000.0,1550000.0,1750000.0,1820000.0,1750000.0,1680000.0,1730000.0,1690000.0,1640000.0,1660000.0,1700000.0,1530000.0,1770000.0,1650000.0,1720000.0,1790000.0,1840000.0,1860000.0,1980000.0,2010000.0,1790000.0,1760000.0,1740000.0,1960000.0,1840000.0,1710000.0,1780000.0,1840000.0,1890000.0,1870000.0,1840000.0,1800000.0,1760000.0,1790000.0,1710000.0,1640000.0,1790000.0,1670000.0,1750000.0,1810000.0,1860000.0,1820000.0,1830000.0,1780000.0,1740000.0,1870000.0,1690000.0,1620000.0,1760000.0,1630000.0,1710000.0,1780000.0,1870000.0,1800000.0,1790000.0,1750000.0,1700000.0,1730000.0,1670000.0,1600000.0,1720000.0,1590000.0,1670000.0,1730000.0,1830000.0,1760000.0,1750000.0,1720000.0,1670000.0,1700000.0,1650000.0,1580000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[135000.0,132000.0,138000.0,134000.0,136000.0,138000.0,142000.0,140000.0,136000.0,138000.0,136000.0,128000.0,140000.0,135000.0,140000.0,136000.0,138000.0,139000.0,143000.0,141000.0,137000.0,140000.0,138000.0,130000.0,142000.0,136000.0,141000.0,137000.0,139000.0,138000.0,142000.0,140000.0,136000.0,139000.0,137000.0,128000.0,140000.0,135000.0,139000.0,135000.0,137000.0,136000.0,140000.0,138000.0,134000.0,137000.0,135000.0,127000.0,138000.0,134000.0,146000.0,155000.0,150000.0,146000.0,147000.0,144000.0,140000.0,141000.0,138000.0,130000.0,140000.0,134000.0,138000.0,134000.0,134000.0,132000.0,135000.0,133000.0,130000.0,132000.0,130000.0,122000.0,132000.0,127000.0,131000.0,126000.0,127000.0,125000.0,128000.0,126000.0,123000.0,125000.0,123000.0,115000.0,125000.0,119000.0,123000.0,118000.0,119000.0,117000.0,120000.0,118000.0,114000.0,116000.0,114000.0,107000.0,114000.0,109000.0,112000.0,108000.0,108000.0,105000.0,108000.0,106000.0,102000.0,104000.0,102000.0,96000.0,102000.0,97000.0,100000.0,96000.0,96000.0,93000.0,95000.0,93000.0,90000.0,92000.0,90000.0,84000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[24800.0,22900.0,29600.0,30500.0,33800.0,39100.0,40800.0,40600.0,30100.0,28500.0,27800.0,32600.0,26700.0,24600.0,31800.0,32600.0,36200.0,40600.0,44500.0,41800.0,32500.0,29800.0,28900.0,34500.0,28600.0,26400.0,34000.0,34800.0,38800.0,44500.0,47200.0,45300.0,35100.0,31900.0,30800.0,37600.0,30600.0,28000.0,36200.0,37100.0,41400.0,47000.0,49200.0,52600.0,37200.0,33800.0,32600.0,39200.0,27600.0,25100.0,29500.0,28000.0,34500.0,43500.0,47000.0,45800.0,33500.0,30500.0,29500.0,36200.0,29800.0,27200.0,35100.0,36200.0,39600.0,44800.0,48500.0,46000.0,35900.0,32800.0,31800.0,38400.0,31500.0,28800.0,37300.0,38400.0,42100.0,47800.0,51200.0,48500.0,38200.0,34700.0,33500.0,40800.0,30100.0,27600.0,35800.0,36900.0,40600.0,46000.0,49200.0,47100.0,37600.0,33600.0,32700.0,41000.0,31200.0,28500.0,37000.0,38200.0,42000.0,47200.0,52000.0,49500.0,37800.0,34500.0,33400.0,40200.0,32400.0,29600.0,38600.0,39800.0,43800.0,49200.0,53000.0,50200.0,39400.0,36000.0,34900.0,42000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[35000.0,32500.0,34000.0,32500.0,33500.0,35000.0,36500.0,35500.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,34300.0,31800.0,33300.0,31900.0,32800.0,34300.0,35800.0,34800.0,33300.0,32300.0,31400.0,33300.0,33300.0,30900.0,32400.0,31000.0,32000.0,33500.0,35000.0,34000.0,32500.0,31600.0,30600.0,32500.0,32000.0,29800.0,31200.0,29900.0,30800.0,32300.0,33700.0,32800.0,31400.0,30400.0,29500.0,31300.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38500.0,37500.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,30800.0,28500.0,30000.0,28800.0,29700.0,31200.0,32500.0,31700.0,30300.0,29400.0,28500.0,30200.0,29500.0,27500.0,29000.0,27800.0,28600.0,30000.0,31300.0,30500.0,29200.0,28300.0,27400.0,29100.0,28500.0,26500.0,28000.0,26800.0,27600.0,29000.0,30200.0,29500.0,28200.0,27300.0,26500.0,28000.0,27500.0,25600.0,27000.0,25900.0,26600.0,28000.0,29200.0,28500.0,27200.0,26400.0,25600.0,27000.0,26700.0,24800.0,26200.0,25100.0,25800.0,27100.0,28300.0,27600.0,26400.0,25600.0,24800.0,26200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[22260.0,22680.0,22470.0,21420.0,21000.0,19950.0,18900.0,19320.0,21840.0,22470.0,21840.0,19320.0,21200.0,21600.0,21400.0,20400.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18400.0,20800.0,22500.0,20800.0,18400.0,20140.0,20520.0,20330.0,19380.0,19000.0,18050.0,17100.0,17480.0,19760.0,20330.0,19760.0,19000.0,18550.0,18900.0,18725.0,17850.0,17500.0,16625.0,15750.0,16100.0,18200.0,18725.0,18200.0,16100.0,18020.0,18360.0,19600.0,18700.0,17000.0,16150.0,15300.0,15640.0,17680.0,18190.0,17680.0,15640.0,15900.0,16200.0,16050.0,15300.0,15000.0,14250.0,13500.0,13800.0,15600.0,16050.0,15600.0,13800.0,14840.0,15120.0,14980.0,14280.0,14000.0,13300.0,12600.0,12880.0,14560.0,14980.0,14560.0,12880.0,13250.0,13500.0,13375.0,12750.0,12500.0,11875.0,11250.0,11500.0,13000.0,13375.0,13000.0,11500.0,12190.0,12420.0,12305.0,11730.0,11500.0,10925.0,10350.0,10580.0,11960.0,12305.0,11960.0,10580.0,11130.0,11340.0,11235.0,10710.0,10500.0,9975.0,9450.0,9660.0,10920.0,11235.0,10920.0,9660.0]}},{"title":"Annie Mumolo","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Annie Mumolo\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15705,9667,9823,12156,17623,9815,35871,33333,15592,15810,19816,17219,19260,13357,12503,10246,14494,12031,12168,9508,7642,7909,11719,12414,10374,7342,8683,7164,6318,6167,8001,6864,7328,6042,6560,7198,7397,4782,7119,6040,7401,5714,8222,9357,7232,6471,7324,22969,18468,11764,10548,10313,12460,9647,8423,10511,8685,8720,10815,17276,23774,93660,27202,26099,22627,12975,35921,20652,13572,10259,10447,12894,14577,11207,10868,9556,9727,13420,13324,12406,15443,10841,11729,12257,14332,11082,18209,21407,11842,13887,33296,16200,14664,9610,9711,16647,18496,12632,16887,15337,35179,13467,12927,13146,12239,10729,11510,14853,15144,11219,11400,9294,10371,9806,10270,11457,9354,11090,9921,9804],"flat_reference_value":16991.977610819395,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[14500.0,11500.0,9200.0,8200.0,7800.0,8900.0,24500.0,28000.0,15000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,9500.0,8500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7300.0,7400.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,8000.0,10500.0,11500.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,7200.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,7300.0,7000.0,7200.0,7000.0,6700.0,6900.0,7400.0,8000.0,7600.0,7200.0,8200.0,9200.0,8500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7400.0,7100.0,7200.0,7800.0,9000.0,17000.0,170000.0,74000.0,36000.0,25000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,22000.0,16000.0,14000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9300.0,9000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8500.0,8300.0,8000.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,10000.0,8500.0,8000.0,10500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8300.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,7500.0,7400.0,7600.0,8000.0,8500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[42500.0,36800.0,23400.0,20100.0,21200.0,22800.0,46500.0,69200.0,34600.0,25900.0,28400.0,26700.0,25100.0,22900.0,21800.0,20400.0,21600.0,20900.0,23500.0,22100.0,19800.0,21200.0,29400.0,26300.0,23800.0,20700.0,21400.0,19600.0,20200.0,19500.0,21100.0,20300.0,18900.0,18400.0,19700.0,21500.0,22100.0,19800.0,20400.0,31800.0,22600.0,20100.0,21300.0,20800.0,19200.0,18700.0,19500.0,21400.0,22900.0,20600.0,25800.0,29400.0,27600.0,23900.0,23100.0,26500.0,22400.0,21800.0,22700.0,25200.0,54600.0,328000.0,114000.0,53200.0,48900.0,34500.0,31800.0,29700.0,38400.0,35200.0,29800.0,31100.0,29400.0,26800.0,27500.0,25900.0,26400.0,34200.0,28700.0,26100.0,41800.0,38900.0,29300.0,27800.0,26900.0,24100.0,25300.0,23700.0,24600.0,25800.0,49500.0,53200.0,36400.0,27900.0,25400.0,26800.0,25900.0,23400.0,24800.0,22700.0,27600.0,31200.0,28400.0,24900.0,22600.0,21800.0,22400.0,24100.0,23500.0,21400.0,22100.0,20800.0,21600.0,21200.0,22500.0,21900.0,20300.0,19800.0,20700.0,22300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5800.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5700.0,6100.0,15200.0,18400.0,8900.0,6800.0,6200.0,6500.0,6300.0,5900.0,5700.0,5400.0,5800.0,5600.0,6100.0,6400.0,5800.0,5500.0,6700.0,6300.0,6400.0,5900.0,6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,5700.0,6300.0,6600.0,5900.0,5800.0,6100.0,6500.0,6700.0,6200.0,6100.0,8200.0,7100.0,6800.0,7500.0,7200.0,6600.0,6400.0,6800.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,7400.0,7900.0,8100.0,7200.0,8400.0,7600.0,6900.0,6700.0,7200.0,7800.0,10500.0,94000.0,36500.0,22400.0,15800.0,12600.0,13100.0,11800.0,10900.0,10400.0,10800.0,11200.0,10600.0,11300.0,10100.0,9600.0,9400.0,9200.0,9800.0,9500.0,14100.0,11200.0,9700.0,9500.0,9600.0,9100.0,8900.0,8600.0,8700.0,8400.0,9100.0,8800.0,8500.0,8200.0,8400.0,8900.0,8700.0,8500.0,8800.0,9200.0,14800.0,10500.0,9600.0,9100.0,8600.0,8300.0,8400.0,8700.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,7900.0,8300.0,8100.0,7800.0,7700.0,7900.0,8200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[16000.0,14000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,16000.0,15000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,8500.0,11000.0,55000.0,24000.0,14000.0,13000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,30000.0,28000.0,13000.0,9500.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[62000.0,42000.0,40000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,70000.0,85000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,23000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,32000.0,230000.0,95000.0,60000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,95000.0,65000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,33000.0,32000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2600.0,2300.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,4800.0,3400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,4200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2300.0,4300.0,3000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2800.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,2200.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,3000.0,2000.0,2000.0,3500.0,6000.0,75000.0,11000.0,5500.0,3200.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,3000.0,17000.0,4200.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[5213.0,4387.0,3921.0,3445.0,3112.0,2789.0,2624.0,2718.0,2984.0,3120.0,3255.0,3041.0,3420.0,2988.0,3125.0,2874.0,2730.0,2512.0,2398.0,2465.0,2741.0,2918.0,3022.0,2810.0,3154.0,2732.0,2895.0,2658.0,2541.0,2318.0,2254.0,2320.0,2598.0,2784.0,2945.0,2692.0,2987.0,2614.0,2782.0,2523.0,2418.0,2227.0,2158.0,2246.0,2489.0,2672.0,2831.0,2584.0,2845.0,2621.0,2718.0,2492.0,2675.0,2812.0,3845.0,3120.0,2854.0,2948.0,3112.0,2987.0,6520.0,27413.0,13852.0,7824.0,5421.0,4183.0,3852.0,3924.0,6235.0,4712.0,3824.0,3512.0,3428.0,3015.0,3284.0,2952.0,2768.0,2543.0,2412.0,2518.0,2835.0,3042.0,3228.0,2964.0,3315.0,2874.0,3052.0,2788.0,2645.0,2421.0,2358.0,2446.0,2782.0,2987.0,3154.0,2842.0,3248.0,2921.0,3105.0,2854.0,2692.0,2488.0,2385.0,2512.0,2848.0,3054.0,3287.0,2995.0,3382.0,2965.0,3184.0,2912.0,2748.0,2534.0,2461.0,2578.0,2894.0,3120.0,3295.0,3028.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,3300.0,7200.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,3400.0,7000.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,2900.0,2850.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3700.0,4300.0,5200.0,8000.0,42000.0,12500.0,6800.0,5200.0,4500.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,4500.0,4400.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4700.0,4600.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,4100.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,4200.0,4400.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,4400.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[220.0,240.0,210.0,190.0,200.0,180.0,190.0,170.0,200.0,210.0,230.0,250.0,260.0,270.0,240.0,220.0,230.0,210.0,220.0,200.0,230.0,240.0,250.0,280.0,300.0,310.0,280.0,260.0,270.0,250.0,260.0,240.0,270.0,280.0,290.0,320.0,350.0,360.0,330.0,310.0,320.0,300.0,310.0,290.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,380.0,380.0,400.0,420.0,450.0,430.0,400.0,410.0,390.0,420.0,450.0,600.0,2200.0,2500.0,12000.0,5000.0,2500.0,1800.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,750.0,800.0,850.0,700.0,720.0,650.0,600.0,620.0,580.0,600.0,550.0,580.0,600.0,620.0,650.0,600.0,620.0,560.0,520.0,540.0,500.0,520.0,480.0,500.0,520.0,540.0,580.0,550.0,570.0,520.0,490.0,500.0,470.0,480.0,450.0,470.0,490.0,510.0,550.0],"meta/muse-ember":[640.0,590.0,630.0,720.0,880.0,1180.0,2750.0,2200.0,1420.0,960.0,990.0,830.0,730.0,670.0,710.0,780.0,860.0,940.0,1010.0,950.0,980.0,1420.0,2850.0,1880.0,850.0,790.0,830.0,880.0,950.0,1010.0,1080.0,970.0,910.0,850.0,880.0,780.0,760.0,700.0,740.0,800.0,860.0,920.0,880.0,820.0,760.0,710.0,740.0,660.0,640.0,680.0,920.0,1020.0,980.0,920.0,860.0,800.0,740.0,690.0,720.0,660.0,620.0,570.0,640.0,720.0,1150.0,880.0,780.0,720.0,660.0,610.0,640.0,570.0,560.0,510.0,550.0,610.0,660.0,710.0,670.0,620.0,560.0,520.0,550.0,490.0,510.0,460.0,500.0,550.0,600.0,650.0,610.0,560.0,510.0,470.0,500.0,440.0,460.0,420.0,460.0,510.0,550.0,600.0,560.0,520.0,470.0,430.0,460.0,410.0,420.0,380.0,420.0,460.0,510.0,550.0,510.0,470.0,420.0,390.0,420.0,380.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[258.0,299.0,243.0,647.0,1249.0,1379.0,1642.0,963.0,354.0,239.0,422.0,696.0,527.0,403.0,326.0,310.0,310.0,285.0,273.0,279.0,316.0,310.0,326.0,264.0,482.0,559.0,457.0,979.0,1630.0,965.0,675.0,1481.0,2353.0,2712.0,3355.0,1670.0,6576.0,11104.0,3600.0,3175.0,1264.0,599.0,570.0,729.0,1624.0,2440.0,1711.0,2178.0,7480.0,12586.0,3486.0,919.0,880.0,810.0,774.0,792.0,898.0,880.0,924.0,748.0,918.0,1073.0,1548.0,2320.0,1507.0,820.0,722.0,738.0,836.0,835.0,1186.0,1597.0,1176.0,988.0,798.0,760.0,760.0,699.0,669.0,684.0,775.0,760.0,798.0,646.0,930.0,1079.0,872.0,830.0,830.0,764.0,730.0,747.0,847.0,830.0,872.0,706.0,1064.0,1245.0,1210.0,2298.0,3450.0,2227.0,1347.0,2065.0,1268.0,955.0,998.0,808.0,986.0,1144.0,924.0,880.0,880.0,810.0,774.0,792.0,898.0,880.0,924.0,748.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,3000.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,7600.0,6200.0,3900.0,3000.0,12500.0,32000.0,23000.0,14500.0,10500.0,8000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,19000.0,14500.0,9800.0,15500.0,11000.0,8200.0,7200.0,13500.0,9000.0,7200.0,6400.0,6200.0,5900.0,4900.0,4400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4000.0,4200.0,4400.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4800.0,4300.0,4400.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4400.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,5200.0,12500.0,28000.0,19000.0,9500.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,5200.0,4700.0,4500.0,4700.0,5100.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,5500.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,4300.0,4100.0,5200.0,4700.0,5000.0,5400.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4600.0,5000.0,5400.0,5100.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2200.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1600.0,3200.0,12000.0,6500.0,3200.0,2500.0,2300.0,2800.0,5500.0,4500.0,6500.0,3000.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1660.0,1230.0,1330.0,1010.0,1330.0,1330.0,6400.0,4000.0,870.0,1240.0,1320.0,860.0,1600.0,1220.0,1320.0,1000.0,1220.0,1320.0,1690.0,4500.0,860.0,1180.0,1170.0,870.0,1540.0,1190.0,1240.0,920.0,4600.0,1240.0,1620.0,1460.0,820.0,1130.0,1130.0,850.0,1400.0,1270.0,1040.0,990.0,1950.0,1200.0,1730.0,1260.0,840.0,970.0,1170.0,710.0,1580.0,1160.0,1400.0,1200.0,1400.0,1550.0,2000.0,1600.0,1000.0,1170.0,1250.0,950.0,1420.0,1260.0,3600.0,2150.0,980.0,1300.0,1570.0,1440.0,760.0,1060.0,1050.0,780.0,1370.0,1060.0,1060.0,830.0,1000.0,1090.0,1620.0,1170.0,740.0,880.0,1050.0,620.0,1390.0,1020.0,1010.0,760.0,950.0,1100.0,1610.0,1150.0,700.0,860.0,1030.0,580.0,1330.0,980.0,1030.0,770.0,920.0,1050.0,1570.0,1140.0,690.0,820.0,1020.0,560.0,1340.0,990.0,1000.0,760.0,920.0,1020.0,1560.0,1130.0,660.0,810.0,980.0,550.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1900.0,1600.0,1300.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,1100.0,1250.0,1000.0,850.0,780.0,750.0,720.0,700.0,730.0,680.0,700.0,720.0,760.0,820.0,780.0,700.0,730.0,680.0,650.0,680.0,720.0,660.0,640.0,680.0,700.0,740.0,850.0,820.0,780.0,730.0,700.0,680.0,720.0,760.0,690.0,700.0,720.0,800.0,760.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,700.0,720.0,740.0,780.0,820.0,900.0,1100.0,1050.0,1600.0,5200.0,3600.0,1900.0,1450.0,1200.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1200.0,1050.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,900.0,920.0,950.0,900.0,870.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,920.0,880.0,850.0,900.0,1500.0,1300.0,1050.0,950.0,900.0,920.0,880.0,950.0,900.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,820.0,850.0,880.0,830.0,800.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,780.0,800.0,820.0,780.0,760.0,780.0,800.0,850.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[360.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,350.0,360.0,350.0,370.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,310.0,300.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,330.0,320.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,300.0,290.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,320.0,340.0,320.0,310.0,330.0,320.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,310.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,380.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,350.0,360.0,350.0,370.0,380.0,1400.0,900.0,500.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,390.0,380.0,400.0,390.0,410.0,420.0,400.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,360.0,360.0,370.0,350.0,380.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,340.0,360.0,360.0,350.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,340.0,350.0,350.0,340.0,360.0,350.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,330.0,340.0]}},{"title":"Maroon","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Maroon\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[17803,17573,15323,13822,13848,12369,12026,12308,12999,14912,14487,12911,13527,13899,14365,12997,13121,11791,13388,12520,12867,14328,16464,13218,13628,11854,12780,12406,11740,13912,12844,13195,12532,13644,13161,12412,13080,13518,12232,10923,11986,11604,12188,11911,12582,14074,14759,14360,13164,11745,11344,11441,11319,11084,11535,10896,10976,12421,12852,12326,11974,10130,10978,10167,10751,10434,11907,11521,12309,13110,12882,12360,13006,11053,11725,11460,10818,9046,9563,10380,13228,16041,16632,13875,13661,12420,13306,11574,12973,12406,13689,14590,15461,18791,17902,22341,19588,14248,18392,14171,10683,9113,9288,8949,9444,10724,10392,11992,10440,9147,44567,9406,9986,8463,8263,10131,10234,11156,9027,8752],"flat_reference_value":16989.10209317118,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[21000.0,20300.0,21700.0,21100.0,21600.0,19900.0,19200.0,21800.0,23500.0,24900.0,22800.0,20500.0,22100.0,21100.0,23000.0,22200.0,22600.0,20700.0,20100.0,23000.0,24600.0,25800.0,24000.0,21500.0,23200.0,22000.0,23900.0,23100.0,23500.0,21700.0,21000.0,23900.0,25400.0,26800.0,24900.0,22400.0,24200.0,22900.0,24800.0,23900.0,24400.0,22400.0,21900.0,24700.0,26300.0,27900.0,25800.0,23200.0,25000.0,24100.0,25000.0,23200.0,23900.0,22900.0,22500.0,25000.0,26800.0,28300.0,26200.0,24000.0,25900.0,24400.0,26700.0,25600.0,26000.0,24000.0,23400.0,26300.0,28300.0,29700.0,27600.0,24900.0,26900.0,25300.0,27500.0,26400.0,26800.0,24800.0,24300.0,27100.0,29100.0,48000.0,40000.0,32000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30100.0,28500.0,29000.0,26900.0,26200.0,29400.0,31300.0,32800.0,30300.0,27500.0,29600.0,28200.0,30200.0,29200.0,29700.0,27300.0,26800.0,30000.0,31900.0,33500.0,30900.0,27900.0,30100.0,28200.0,30700.0,29500.0,30000.0,27600.0,27000.0,30200.0,32200.0,33800.0,31200.0,28100.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[34200.0,31800.0,34500.0,33400.0,34100.0,32200.0,32800.0,33600.0,34900.0,35800.0,34700.0,33500.0,35100.0,31900.0,35400.0,34200.0,34800.0,33100.0,33500.0,34400.0,35900.0,36800.0,35600.0,34300.0,36200.0,32800.0,36500.0,35300.0,35900.0,34100.0,34800.0,35700.0,37100.0,38200.0,36900.0,35500.0,37400.0,38600.0,37600.0,36200.0,36800.0,35100.0,35700.0,36600.0,38100.0,39200.0,37800.0,36400.0,38300.0,35600.0,39400.0,41800.0,41200.0,38500.0,38100.0,38700.0,39500.0,40400.0,38900.0,37600.0,39100.0,35400.0,38800.0,37400.0,37900.0,35800.0,36200.0,37100.0,38200.0,39100.0,37700.0,36300.0,37600.0,34100.0,37200.0,35900.0,36400.0,34600.0,35100.0,36000.0,37300.0,51400.0,45800.0,40200.0,36800.0,32900.0,35700.0,34200.0,34900.0,32800.0,33400.0,35200.0,34800.0,35500.0,33900.0,32400.0,33200.0,30800.0,32600.0,31400.0,31800.0,29900.0,30400.0,31100.0,31900.0,32700.0,31200.0,29800.0,30500.0,27600.0,29900.0,28800.0,29200.0,27500.0,27900.0,28600.0,29400.0,30100.0,28700.0,27400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[36200.0,37100.0,38400.0,37800.0,36100.0,29800.0,30500.0,33200.0,37900.0,41200.0,42100.0,34800.0,37400.0,36800.0,39500.0,38100.0,36900.0,30100.0,31200.0,34500.0,38700.0,42300.0,41800.0,35400.0,38100.0,37200.0,39800.0,38600.0,36400.0,29900.0,30800.0,33900.0,37600.0,41500.0,40900.0,34100.0,37200.0,44800.0,38900.0,37400.0,35800.0,29100.0,29900.0,32800.0,36500.0,39800.0,39200.0,33100.0,35800.0,35200.0,37600.0,42100.0,39800.0,32400.0,31900.0,33800.0,37100.0,39400.0,38200.0,32600.0,34900.0,34100.0,36800.0,35900.0,34200.0,28400.0,29100.0,32200.0,35400.0,38100.0,37600.0,31800.0,34200.0,33500.0,35900.0,34800.0,33100.0,27800.0,28500.0,31400.0,34900.0,168000.0,71200.0,44800.0,42100.0,39500.0,41800.0,40200.0,44100.0,34900.0,36200.0,42300.0,39400.0,41600.0,43500.0,36100.0,37400.0,41200.0,39800.0,38100.0,37600.0,31200.0,32800.0,34900.0,36800.0,39100.0,38500.0,33400.0,35200.0,34100.0,36400.0,35100.0,33900.0,28200.0,28900.0,31500.0,34600.0,37200.0,36500.0,31800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[25500.0,25800.0,26500.0,25900.0,25200.0,22500.0,21800.0,22600.0,24800.0,25600.0,25300.0,22100.0,24600.0,24900.0,25500.0,24700.0,24200.0,21600.0,20900.0,21700.0,23800.0,24500.0,24200.0,21200.0,23700.0,23900.0,24400.0,23600.0,23100.0,20600.0,20000.0,20800.0,22600.0,23300.0,23000.0,20300.0,22600.0,24800.0,23200.0,22400.0,21900.0,19600.0,19000.0,19700.0,21400.0,22100.0,21800.0,19300.0,21500.0,21300.0,21900.0,23200.0,22400.0,19800.0,19100.0,19400.0,20600.0,21000.0,20700.0,18600.0,20200.0,20000.0,20500.0,19800.0,19300.0,17400.0,16900.0,17500.0,18900.0,19400.0,19100.0,17000.0,18800.0,18600.0,19000.0,18400.0,18000.0,16300.0,15900.0,16500.0,17600.0,34500.0,24800.0,19200.0,18800.0,18100.0,18400.0,17900.0,18600.0,17200.0,16100.0,16300.0,16900.0,17600.0,17200.0,15600.0,16700.0,16400.0,16600.0,16200.0,15800.0,14300.0,13900.0,14400.0,15300.0,15800.0,15400.0,13800.0,15100.0,14800.0,15000.0,14600.0,14200.0,12900.0,12500.0,12900.0,13700.0,14200.0,13900.0,12500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,48000.0,32000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10300.0,17200.0,10900.0,9600.0,9700.0,11000.0,8600.0,9000.0,10000.0,11400.0,9500.0,8100.0,11300.0,19400.0,12100.0,10500.0,10700.0,12100.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,12600.0,10500.0,8900.0,12400.0,21900.0,13200.0,11500.0,11700.0,13200.0,10400.0,10900.0,12100.0,13800.0,11500.0,9800.0,13500.0,27000.0,14400.0,12500.0,12800.0,14400.0,11300.0,11900.0,13100.0,15000.0,12500.0,10600.0,18400.0,37400.0,22000.0,18000.0,18500.0,62000.0,19000.0,17500.0,18500.0,21000.0,17500.0,15000.0,16700.0,31000.0,17800.0,16500.0,16000.0,50000.0,14500.0,15000.0,16300.0,18600.0,15500.0,13200.0,15100.0,26600.0,16100.0,14000.0,14300.0,30800.0,12600.0,13300.0,15500.0,16800.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,24000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13300.0,24700.0,11700.0,12400.0,13700.0,15600.0,13000.0,11100.0,13500.0,22500.0,14400.0,12500.0,12800.0,22500.0,11500.0,11900.0,13100.0,15000.0,12500.0,10600.0,11300.0,17900.0,12100.0,11500.0,10800.0,17900.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,12600.0,10500.0,8900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[21500.0,19800.0,21200.0,19500.0,18800.0,15200.0,14100.0,15300.0,18600.0,19700.0,19500.0,17200.0,20800.0,19000.0,20500.0,18800.0,18100.0,14800.0,13900.0,15000.0,18100.0,19300.0,22500.0,18300.0,20000.0,18300.0,19600.0,18100.0,17500.0,14300.0,13500.0,14600.0,17600.0,18800.0,18600.0,16500.0,19500.0,28500.0,20500.0,17900.0,17200.0,14100.0,13300.0,14400.0,17400.0,18500.0,18200.0,16200.0,19200.0,17800.0,22500.0,24000.0,21500.0,16500.0,15000.0,16200.0,19300.0,20000.0,19500.0,17500.0,19000.0,17500.0,19000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17800.0,13800.0,14800.0,17800.0,18600.0,18100.0,16000.0,18200.0,16800.0,18300.0,16800.0,16000.0,13500.0,12800.0,14000.0,17000.0,17900.0,17500.0,15500.0,17800.0,16300.0,17900.0,16400.0,15700.0,13100.0,12500.0,13700.0,16600.0,17500.0,17100.0,15200.0,17400.0,16000.0,17400.0,16000.0,15300.0,12800.0,12200.0,13400.0,16200.0,17100.0,16700.0,14900.0,17000.0,15600.0,17100.0,15700.0,15000.0,12500.0,11900.0,13100.0,15900.0,16800.0,16400.0,14600.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[25240.0,24180.0,23610.0,22940.0,21870.0,21320.0,20760.0,23410.0,26180.0,27050.0,25340.0,22890.0,26410.0,25390.0,24870.0,24110.0,23020.0,22340.0,21880.0,24560.0,27420.0,28340.0,26610.0,23970.0,27480.0,26930.0,25760.0,25120.0,24010.0,23270.0,22640.0,25480.0,28740.0,29610.0,27830.0,25060.0,28940.0,32760.0,27180.0,26410.0,25270.0,24390.0,23810.0,26820.0,30240.0,31180.0,29320.0,26470.0,30180.0,30740.0,35820.0,38460.0,34970.0,31840.0,30220.0,31760.0,34610.0,35290.0,33180.0,30430.0,31720.0,31140.0,30260.0,29180.0,28430.0,27210.0,26870.0,29340.0,32610.0,33180.0,31240.0,28560.0,30480.0,30110.0,29240.0,28160.0,27320.0,26180.0,25740.0,28430.0,31270.0,31860.0,37240.0,34680.0,32870.0,32240.0,31180.0,30270.0,29310.0,28140.0,27690.0,30220.0,33480.0,34120.0,32060.0,29270.0,35120.0,34610.0,33380.0,32240.0,31320.0,29960.0,29410.0,32180.0,35740.0,36380.0,34210.0,31290.0,37840.0,37120.0,35860.0,34670.0,33540.0,32180.0,31720.0,34610.0,38420.0,39180.0,36940.0,33580.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[30000.0,28200.0,30000.0,30000.0,30600.0,28500.0,29400.0,32400.0,33600.0,33000.0,31200.0,29400.0,31000.0,29100.0,31000.0,31000.0,31600.0,29500.0,30400.0,33500.0,34700.0,34100.0,32200.0,30400.0,32000.0,30100.0,32000.0,32000.0,32600.0,30400.0,31400.0,34600.0,35800.0,35200.0,33300.0,31400.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33700.0,31400.0,32300.0,35600.0,37000.0,36300.0,34300.0,32300.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34700.0,32300.0,33300.0,36700.0,38100.0,37400.0,35400.0,33300.0,35000.0,32900.0,35000.0,35000.0,35700.0,33300.0,34300.0,37800.0,39200.0,38500.0,36400.0,34300.0,36000.0,33800.0,36000.0,36000.0,36700.0,34200.0,35300.0,38900.0,40300.0,82000.0,56000.0,43000.0,39000.0,36600.0,39000.0,39000.0,39800.0,37000.0,38200.0,42100.0,43700.0,42900.0,40600.0,38200.0,39000.0,36700.0,39000.0,39000.0,39800.0,37100.0,38200.0,42100.0,43700.0,42900.0,40600.0,38200.0,40000.0,37600.0,40000.0,40000.0,40800.0,38000.0,39200.0,43200.0,44800.0,44000.0,41600.0,39200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[33990.0,32010.0,32670.0,31680.0,30690.0,30360.0,31020.0,33330.0,37420.0,37290.0,36300.0,35310.0,32960.0,31040.0,31680.0,30720.0,29760.0,29440.0,30080.0,32320.0,34560.0,36160.0,44000.0,38350.0,32445.0,30555.0,31185.0,30240.0,29295.0,32460.0,31980.0,31815.0,34020.0,35595.0,34650.0,33705.0,35760.0,40600.0,35290.0,29760.0,28830.0,28520.0,29140.0,31310.0,33480.0,35030.0,34100.0,33170.0,33475.0,31525.0,41830.0,39940.0,34760.0,31400.0,30550.0,32825.0,35100.0,36725.0,35750.0,34775.0,33475.0,31525.0,32175.0,31200.0,30225.0,36480.0,34220.0,35450.0,35100.0,36725.0,35750.0,34775.0,32960.0,31040.0,31680.0,30720.0,29760.0,29440.0,30080.0,32320.0,44930.0,63280.0,54560.0,44510.0,37070.0,33770.0,32710.0,28320.0,31550.0,27140.0,27730.0,29795.0,36640.0,39340.0,37320.0,34720.0,28325.0,26675.0,27225.0,30360.0,28640.0,25300.0,25850.0,27775.0,33260.0,35740.0,33880.0,31780.0,26780.0,25220.0,25740.0,24960.0,24180.0,28230.0,26880.0,26260.0,30890.0,32910.0,31460.0,29490.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[28600.0,25200.0,27900.0,26700.0,26900.0,25300.0,25600.0,26400.0,27900.0,30200.0,28200.0,28300.0,29200.0,25600.0,29500.0,28600.0,28900.0,27100.0,27500.0,28400.0,30000.0,32500.0,30300.0,30400.0,30200.0,26500.0,30500.0,29600.0,29900.0,28100.0,28400.0,29300.0,31100.0,33600.0,31300.0,31500.0,32300.0,28300.0,32600.0,31600.0,31900.0,30000.0,30300.0,31300.0,33100.0,35800.0,33400.0,35600.0,37000.0,33500.0,43000.0,40500.0,39500.0,36000.0,35000.0,36500.0,38000.0,41000.0,38500.0,38500.0,38300.0,33600.0,38700.0,37500.0,37900.0,35600.0,36000.0,37200.0,39300.0,42600.0,39700.0,39900.0,34300.0,30000.0,34600.0,33500.0,33900.0,31800.0,32200.0,33300.0,37000.0,55200.0,41900.0,37800.0,30200.0,26500.0,30500.0,29600.0,29900.0,28100.0,28400.0,29300.0,31100.0,33600.0,31300.0,31500.0,27200.0,24700.0,27500.0,26600.0,26900.0,25300.0,25600.0,26400.0,27900.0,30200.0,28200.0,30000.0,24800.0,21200.0,24400.0,23700.0,24000.0,22500.0,22700.0,23500.0,24800.0,26900.0,25100.0,25200.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[8400.0,13200.0,12100.0,9000.0,8300.0,7600.0,8400.0,8200.0,9200.0,9800.0,10300.0,10800.0,9900.0,9300.0,8800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7700.0,9800.0,11200.0,12100.0,11300.0,10400.0,10300.0,10800.0,11100.0,10600.0,9500.0,11200.0,9700.0,10300.0,11000.0,15100.0,14300.0,11800.0,11100.0,11200.0,11000.0,10100.0,9400.0,9300.0,8900.0,9700.0,9900.0,10600.0,11000.0,11600.0,11900.0,11500.0,11100.0,9600.0,8500.0,8700.0,9000.0,9500.0,9700.0,10300.0,10900.0,11500.0,11900.0,11600.0,11900.0,10500.0,9800.0,9900.0,9500.0,10200.0,10400.0,11100.0,11700.0,12200.0,12600.0,12100.0,12400.0,10800.0,10000.0,10000.0,9600.0,10300.0,13900.0,15300.0,14600.0,13200.0,12800.0,14700.0,13700.0,11700.0,10800.0,10700.0,10300.0,11100.0,11300.0,12100.0,12800.0,13200.0,13600.0,12900.0,13200.0,11500.0,10600.0,10500.0,10100.0,10800.0,11000.0,11700.0,12300.0,13800.0,15900.0,18100.0,16600.0,13500.0,11900.0,11700.0,11200.0,12000.0,12200.0,13000.0,13600.0,14100.0,14500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[46000.0,47000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,38000.0,35000.0,40000.0,47000.0,50000.0,49000.0,41000.0,48000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,48000.0,39000.0,36000.0,41000.0,49000.0,52000.0,51000.0,42000.0,50000.0,52000.0,52000.0,51000.0,49000.0,40000.0,37000.0,42000.0,50000.0,53000.0,52000.0,43000.0,50000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,39000.0,36000.0,41000.0,49000.0,52000.0,50000.0,42000.0,49000.0,50000.0,46000.0,42000.0,41000.0,37000.0,35000.0,39000.0,47000.0,49000.0,48000.0,41000.0,47000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,45000.0,37000.0,34000.0,39000.0,46000.0,48000.0,47000.0,40000.0,46000.0,47000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,36000.0,33000.0,38000.0,45000.0,47000.0,45000.0,38000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,34000.0,31000.0,36000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,36000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,34000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,32000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[12800.0,12900.0,14400.0,14700.0,15300.0,15900.0,14100.0,15000.0,17900.0,18650.0,15900.0,13800.0,14250.0,14450.0,16050.0,16350.0,16950.0,17650.0,15600.0,16700.0,20100.0,21450.0,17900.0,17300.0,16000.0,16200.0,18000.0,18250.0,19200.0,19750.0,17500.0,18650.0,22400.0,23750.0,19600.0,17100.0,18350.0,18550.0,20700.0,21000.0,22150.0,22600.0,20100.0,21300.0,25900.0,27500.0,23500.0,21800.0,19400.0,19550.0,21950.0,22400.0,23100.0,24000.0,20900.0,22500.0,27800.0,29400.0,23600.0,20700.0,18800.0,18950.0,21050.0,21400.0,22250.0,23050.0,20500.0,22300.0,26100.0,27900.0,23100.0,20050.0,17500.0,17700.0,19600.0,20150.0,20800.0,21550.0,19100.0,20300.0,24600.0,28400.0,23200.0,18750.0,16600.0,16900.0,18700.0,19150.0,19700.0,20550.0,18200.0,19400.0,23300.0,24900.0,20400.0,17750.0,16050.0,16250.0,18000.0,18350.0,19100.0,19800.0,17450.0,18600.0,22450.0,23950.0,19700.0,17050.0,15600.0,15800.0,17350.0,17700.0,18400.0,19050.0,16900.0,18150.0,21800.0,23100.0,19100.0,16550.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[10400.0,10200.0,11100.0,10700.0,10800.0,10500.0,10900.0,11500.0,11900.0,12000.0,11400.0,10000.0,10100.0,9900.0,10900.0,10400.0,10600.0,10200.0,10500.0,11200.0,11600.0,11700.0,11100.0,9700.0,9800.0,9600.0,10500.0,10100.0,10200.0,9900.0,10300.0,10900.0,11300.0,11400.0,10800.0,9400.0,9700.0,9400.0,10300.0,9900.0,10000.0,9700.0,10100.0,10700.0,11100.0,11200.0,10600.0,9300.0,10100.0,9900.0,10800.0,11700.0,11900.0,11200.0,11400.0,12000.0,12400.0,12500.0,11800.0,10300.0,9800.0,9500.0,10400.0,10000.0,10100.0,9700.0,10000.0,10600.0,11000.0,11100.0,10500.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,9700.0,9300.0,9400.0,9000.0,9400.0,9900.0,10300.0,10400.0,9800.0,8600.0,8500.0,8300.0,9200.0,8800.0,8900.0,8600.0,8900.0,9500.0,9900.0,10000.0,9400.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8700.0,8300.0,8400.0,8100.0,8400.0,9000.0,9400.0,9500.0,8900.0,7700.0,7600.0,7400.0,8200.0,7900.0,8000.0,7700.0,8000.0,8500.0,8900.0,9000.0,8400.0,7300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[47300.0,46400.0,47300.0,45000.0,43700.0,40500.0,39600.0,41400.0,47300.0,48600.0,47300.0,42800.0,44100.0,43300.0,44100.0,42000.0,40700.0,37800.0,37000.0,38600.0,44100.0,45400.0,44100.0,39900.0,39900.0,39100.0,39900.0,38000.0,36900.0,34200.0,33400.0,35000.0,39900.0,41000.0,39900.0,36100.0,36800.0,36100.0,36800.0,35000.0,34000.0,31500.0,30800.0,32200.0,36800.0,37800.0,36800.0,33300.0,34700.0,34000.0,34700.0,33000.0,32000.0,29700.0,29000.0,30400.0,34700.0,35600.0,34700.0,31400.0,32600.0,31900.0,32600.0,31000.0,30100.0,27900.0,27300.0,28500.0,32600.0,33500.0,32600.0,29500.0,29400.0,28800.0,29400.0,28000.0,27200.0,25200.0,24600.0,25800.0,29400.0,30200.0,29400.0,26600.0,26300.0,25800.0,26300.0,25000.0,24300.0,22500.0,22000.0,23000.0,26300.0,27000.0,26300.0,23800.0,22100.0,21600.0,22100.0,21000.0,20400.0,18900.0,18500.0,19300.0,22100.0,22700.0,22100.0,20000.0,18900.0,18500.0,18900.0,18000.0,17500.0,16200.0,15800.0,16600.0,18900.0,19400.0,18900.0,17100.0]}},{"title":"Imperial College London","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Imperial College London\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[27379,26213,29103,26769,28373,25637,25762,27406,29473,28892,26145,26247,28800,26489,28822,25022,25305,23227,23775,25001,27912,27710,26095,24097,27686,25003,32397,27485,28360,24568,26861,28830,30106,31648,34437,32641,33711,28984,33597,28080,28472,25433,27420,29718,32668,34589,30149,30537,33567,32095,47025,44838,36357,31308,25453,27207,24901,27303,26323,26478,26083,24070,28271,24104,22732,20788,23482,25883,27114,27741,24962,25516,27915,29002,26421,24821,23807,23398,22437,25478,29129,26908,23390,20628,23028,22042,27852,21405,24124,22388,23755,24791,26126,24290,21420,23075,35279,27776,30251,26453,21647,27118,22384,22771,24286,24507,21136,21897,24639,22124,23734,21120,21508,22608,21185,23722,24184,23959,20471,23631],"flat_reference_value":16924.566312845258,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[57000.0,54000.0,58000.0,55000.0,56000.0,59000.0,53000.0,59000.0,74000.0,73000.0,65000.0,55000.0,63000.0,59000.0,64000.0,61000.0,62000.0,66000.0,58000.0,65000.0,79000.0,80000.0,71000.0,60000.0,69000.0,65000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0,63000.0,70000.0,86000.0,85000.0,76000.0,64000.0,73000.0,68000.0,74000.0,70000.0,72000.0,77000.0,68000.0,75000.0,92000.0,90000.0,80000.0,68000.0,78000.0,85000.0,230000.0,160000.0,130000.0,100000.0,85000.0,85000.0,98000.0,95000.0,85000.0,73000.0,83000.0,77000.0,82000.0,77000.0,79000.0,86000.0,74000.0,80000.0,100000.0,98000.0,87000.0,74000.0,85000.0,79000.0,85000.0,79000.0,82000.0,90000.0,76000.0,83000.0,103000.0,101000.0,90000.0,76000.0,88000.0,81000.0,88000.0,82000.0,85000.0,93000.0,79000.0,87000.0,108000.0,105000.0,93000.0,79000.0,91000.0,85000.0,92000.0,88000.0,90000.0,140000.0,105000.0,103000.0,130000.0,120000.0,104000.0,88000.0,102000.0,94000.0,101000.0,95000.0,99000.0,135000.0,105000.0,105000.0,130000.0,125000.0,110000.0,92000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[86000.0,78000.0,79000.0,75000.0,74000.0,76000.0,77000.0,88000.0,94000.0,96000.0,87000.0,71000.0,87000.0,77000.0,80000.0,74000.0,73000.0,78000.0,76000.0,89000.0,95000.0,97000.0,86000.0,70000.0,88000.0,76000.0,79000.0,75000.0,73000.0,79000.0,77000.0,88000.0,93000.0,96000.0,85000.0,69000.0,87000.0,76000.0,80000.0,75000.0,74000.0,80000.0,78000.0,89000.0,94000.0,96000.0,85000.0,70000.0,88000.0,84000.0,225000.0,135000.0,112000.0,96000.0,89000.0,98000.0,99000.0,102000.0,92000.0,78000.0,93000.0,82000.0,84000.0,78000.0,76000.0,82000.0,78000.0,90000.0,93000.0,94000.0,84000.0,69000.0,85000.0,75000.0,78000.0,72000.0,71000.0,81000.0,75000.0,86000.0,91000.0,92000.0,82000.0,67000.0,83000.0,74000.0,77000.0,71000.0,70000.0,84000.0,76000.0,86000.0,90000.0,91000.0,81000.0,66000.0,82000.0,76000.0,76000.0,71000.0,70000.0,135000.0,86000.0,91000.0,95000.0,96000.0,84000.0,69000.0,83000.0,73000.0,75000.0,70000.0,69000.0,112000.0,79000.0,86000.0,90000.0,91000.0,79000.0,65000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[71200.0,63400.0,64800.0,58900.0,57100.0,55400.0,51200.0,56300.0,73800.0,84100.0,79500.0,61700.0,74300.0,66200.0,67900.0,61500.0,60200.0,62100.0,54700.0,59800.0,77400.0,89200.0,83600.0,65100.0,78500.0,69100.0,71800.0,64300.0,63900.0,64500.0,57800.0,62400.0,80900.0,92600.0,86300.0,67400.0,81300.0,72500.0,74100.0,67200.0,66400.0,68100.0,61000.0,65700.0,84200.0,96800.0,89500.0,71200.0,88400.0,95600.0,284500.0,228900.0,164200.0,105700.0,82600.0,84100.0,108300.0,121500.0,104200.0,85700.0,98600.0,89400.0,92300.0,81700.0,79200.0,78600.0,71400.0,76100.0,95800.0,110400.0,99700.0,78200.0,92100.0,81400.0,83700.0,74500.0,72800.0,75300.0,66900.0,71800.0,91200.0,104500.0,93800.0,74600.0,89700.0,79800.0,82400.0,73600.0,71900.0,77200.0,68500.0,73400.0,93500.0,106800.0,95400.0,76200.0,91400.0,82100.0,84900.0,76800.0,75100.0,138600.0,79400.0,81200.0,102500.0,115700.0,101300.0,80500.0,95200.0,84600.0,87300.0,78900.0,77200.0,85400.0,73100.0,77800.0,98600.0,112400.0,99500.0,79800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[50000.0,49000.0,50000.0,46000.0,46000.0,46000.0,43000.0,48000.0,51000.0,54000.0,51000.0,41000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,42000.0,47000.0,49000.0,52000.0,49000.0,39000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,44000.0,46000.0,49000.0,46000.0,37000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,42000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,36000.0,42000.0,42000.0,130000.0,85000.0,70000.0,52000.0,45000.0,46000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,35000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,32000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,37000.0,30000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,36000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,28000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,25000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[98000.0,95000.0,97000.0,92000.0,93000.0,90000.0,88000.0,93000.0,98000.0,100000.0,96000.0,85000.0,95000.0,90000.0,94000.0,88000.0,90000.0,87000.0,85000.0,90000.0,94000.0,95000.0,91000.0,80000.0,90000.0,84000.0,87000.0,83000.0,85000.0,82000.0,80000.0,85000.0,88000.0,90000.0,86000.0,76000.0,85000.0,79000.0,82000.0,79000.0,80000.0,78000.0,77000.0,82000.0,84000.0,85000.0,81000.0,73000.0,84000.0,82000.0,165000.0,135000.0,110000.0,92000.0,85000.0,88000.0,86000.0,85000.0,82000.0,78000.0,85000.0,78000.0,80000.0,75000.0,75000.0,73000.0,72000.0,76000.0,76000.0,75000.0,72000.0,66000.0,72000.0,67000.0,70000.0,66000.0,67000.0,66000.0,64000.0,68000.0,69000.0,69000.0,66000.0,60000.0,68000.0,64000.0,67000.0,64000.0,66000.0,68000.0,65000.0,68000.0,69000.0,69000.0,66000.0,60000.0,68000.0,65000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,98000.0,76000.0,76000.0,75000.0,74000.0,70000.0,64000.0,71000.0,66000.0,70000.0,67000.0,69000.0,84000.0,72000.0,74000.0,73000.0,72000.0,68000.0,62000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[175000.0,148000.0,158000.0,150000.0,134000.0,152000.0,149000.0,198000.0,157000.0,150000.0,136000.0,141000.0,178000.0,152000.0,161000.0,151000.0,138000.0,159000.0,152000.0,205000.0,158000.0,152000.0,139000.0,144000.0,186000.0,156000.0,165000.0,155000.0,141000.0,170000.0,155000.0,212000.0,162000.0,155000.0,142000.0,146000.0,191000.0,160000.0,170000.0,158000.0,144000.0,178000.0,158000.0,216000.0,168000.0,160000.0,146000.0,150000.0,195000.0,176000.0,380000.0,265000.0,205000.0,220000.0,195000.0,290000.0,215000.0,206000.0,185000.0,181000.0,216000.0,190000.0,200000.0,190000.0,178000.0,205000.0,195000.0,285000.0,200000.0,190000.0,178000.0,175000.0,220000.0,195000.0,205000.0,192000.0,182000.0,215000.0,198000.0,295000.0,205000.0,195000.0,182000.0,180000.0,225000.0,200000.0,210000.0,198000.0,188000.0,220000.0,202000.0,300000.0,210000.0,200000.0,188000.0,185000.0,230000.0,205000.0,215000.0,202000.0,192000.0,345000.0,245000.0,310000.0,220000.0,210000.0,195000.0,190000.0,235000.0,208000.0,218000.0,205000.0,195000.0,350000.0,250000.0,315000.0,225000.0,215000.0,198000.0,192000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[71500.0,63800.0,66200.0,54600.0,59400.0,51800.0,48300.0,63500.0,72800.0,75900.0,64300.0,49800.0,69800.0,62100.0,64000.0,53200.0,57800.0,50200.0,47100.0,61800.0,70500.0,73300.0,62400.0,48500.0,67200.0,59800.0,61500.0,51100.0,55900.0,48600.0,45200.0,59600.0,68100.0,70800.0,60200.0,46900.0,65100.0,57900.0,59300.0,49500.0,53800.0,46800.0,43900.0,57400.0,65900.0,68400.0,58100.0,45200.0,64800.0,58200.0,212400.0,152800.0,94100.0,58300.0,50500.0,62300.0,70200.0,68900.0,59500.0,46100.0,72200.0,64000.0,65800.0,54900.0,59600.0,51900.0,48800.0,63700.0,72900.0,75600.0,64400.0,50100.0,68500.0,63200.0,62500.0,54800.0,56600.0,50800.0,47600.0,61400.0,70100.0,73100.0,62700.0,49000.0,70900.0,63200.0,64800.0,54100.0,58600.0,51200.0,47900.0,62800.0,71700.0,74500.0,63300.0,49400.0,72100.0,64300.0,65900.0,55100.0,59700.0,52100.0,48900.0,63900.0,73100.0,75800.0,64600.0,50300.0,73200.0,65300.0,66900.0,55900.0,60600.0,52900.0,49600.0,64800.0,74100.0,76900.0,65500.0,51100.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[93000.0,82000.0,94000.0,91000.0,88000.0,97000.0,84000.0,99000.0,92000.0,101000.0,83000.0,75000.0,98000.0,87000.0,97000.0,96000.0,92000.0,101000.0,86000.0,103000.0,95000.0,105000.0,87000.0,79000.0,103000.0,91000.0,102000.0,100000.0,96000.0,106000.0,91000.0,108000.0,99000.0,110000.0,91000.0,82000.0,107000.0,95000.0,106000.0,104000.0,100000.0,111000.0,95000.0,113000.0,104000.0,115000.0,95000.0,86000.0,111000.0,99000.0,325000.0,195000.0,138000.0,118000.0,102000.0,132000.0,118000.0,125000.0,103000.0,92000.0,119000.0,105000.0,118000.0,115000.0,111000.0,122000.0,105000.0,125000.0,115000.0,127000.0,105000.0,96000.0,127000.0,113000.0,127000.0,125000.0,120000.0,133000.0,113000.0,135000.0,125000.0,139000.0,113000.0,103000.0,138000.0,123000.0,138000.0,136000.0,130000.0,145000.0,123000.0,147000.0,136000.0,150000.0,123000.0,112000.0,151000.0,135000.0,151000.0,148000.0,141000.0,156000.0,135000.0,159000.0,148000.0,255000.0,172000.0,130000.0,163000.0,145000.0,163000.0,159000.0,153000.0,212000.0,148000.0,178000.0,163000.0,238000.0,178000.0,152000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[29000.0,26000.0,26000.0,23000.0,23000.0,27000.0,22000.0,31000.0,33000.0,30000.0,26000.0,21000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,29000.0,24000.0,34000.0,35000.0,32000.0,28000.0,22000.0,32000.0,29000.0,29000.0,26000.0,26000.0,30000.0,25000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0,29000.0,23000.0,34000.0,31000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28000.0,33000.0,26000.0,37000.0,39000.0,36000.0,31000.0,25000.0,36000.0,36000.0,280000.0,110000.0,55000.0,45000.0,38000.0,48000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,32000.0,32000.0,38000.0,31000.0,43000.0,45000.0,41000.0,36000.0,29000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,34000.0,34000.0,40000.0,32000.0,46000.0,48000.0,44000.0,38000.0,30000.0,44000.0,40000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,42000.0,34000.0,48000.0,50000.0,46000.0,40000.0,32000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,130000.0,36000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,42000.0,34000.0,47000.0,43000.0,43000.0,39000.0,39000.0,65000.0,37000.0,52000.0,54000.0,49000.0,43000.0,34000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[171000.0,158000.0,166000.0,161000.0,170000.0,238000.0,151000.0,206000.0,212000.0,196000.0,174000.0,146000.0,176000.0,163000.0,171000.0,166000.0,175000.0,282000.0,168000.0,212000.0,217000.0,201000.0,179000.0,151000.0,182000.0,168000.0,176000.0,171000.0,179000.0,235000.0,160000.0,218000.0,223000.0,207000.0,186000.0,155000.0,188000.0,173000.0,182000.0,177000.0,186000.0,243000.0,165000.0,225000.0,231000.0,214000.0,191000.0,160000.0,196000.0,185000.0,318000.0,262000.0,241000.0,278000.0,203000.0,342000.0,306000.0,276000.0,236000.0,201000.0,207000.0,194000.0,201000.0,195000.0,204000.0,266000.0,188000.0,291000.0,254000.0,236000.0,209000.0,237000.0,214000.0,206000.0,203000.0,205000.0,212000.0,296000.0,190000.0,286000.0,262000.0,244000.0,217000.0,183000.0,222000.0,246000.0,238000.0,209000.0,219000.0,286000.0,197000.0,287000.0,273000.0,253000.0,225000.0,190000.0,234000.0,217000.0,226000.0,221000.0,231000.0,428000.0,252000.0,302000.0,288000.0,267000.0,238000.0,201000.0,247000.0,229000.0,239000.0,233000.0,243000.0,396000.0,253000.0,317000.0,304000.0,282000.0,251000.0,212000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[47500.0,36100.0,39900.0,38000.0,39900.0,43000.0,31000.0,51300.0,41800.0,43700.0,36100.0,28500.0,51300.0,39000.0,43000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,32800.0,55400.0,45100.0,47200.0,39000.0,30800.0,56300.0,42800.0,47300.0,45000.0,47300.0,45000.0,36000.0,60800.0,49500.0,51800.0,42800.0,33800.0,62500.0,47500.0,52500.0,50000.0,52500.0,50000.0,40000.0,67500.0,55000.0,57500.0,47500.0,37500.0,70000.0,65000.0,160000.0,200000.0,110000.0,75000.0,48000.0,85000.0,68000.0,72000.0,58000.0,42000.0,90000.0,68000.0,76000.0,72000.0,76000.0,72000.0,58000.0,97000.0,79000.0,83000.0,68000.0,54000.0,82500.0,62700.0,69300.0,66000.0,69300.0,66000.0,52800.0,89000.0,72600.0,75900.0,62700.0,49500.0,75000.0,57000.0,63000.0,60000.0,63000.0,60000.0,48000.0,81000.0,66000.0,69000.0,57000.0,45000.0,71000.0,54000.0,60000.0,57000.0,78000.0,57000.0,48000.0,77000.0,63000.0,66000.0,54000.0,43000.0,67500.0,51000.0,57000.0,54000.0,65000.0,58000.0,43000.0,73000.0,59000.0,62000.0,51000.0,40500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[110000.0,94000.0,92000.0,85000.0,87000.0,92000.0,97000.0,109000.0,127000.0,130000.0,116000.0,105000.0,116000.0,98000.0,95000.0,89000.0,91000.0,95000.0,99000.0,111000.0,129000.0,134000.0,118000.0,106000.0,121000.0,102000.0,98000.0,92000.0,94000.0,99000.0,103000.0,114000.0,135000.0,140000.0,124000.0,111000.0,125000.0,105000.0,100000.0,94000.0,96000.0,101000.0,105000.0,117000.0,138000.0,144000.0,127000.0,114000.0,129000.0,108000.0,171000.0,226000.0,214000.0,183000.0,151000.0,145000.0,163000.0,171000.0,158000.0,149000.0,204000.0,145000.0,136000.0,123000.0,127000.0,133000.0,140000.0,155000.0,174000.0,180000.0,164000.0,156000.0,161000.0,135000.0,129000.0,119000.0,122000.0,128000.0,136000.0,150000.0,168000.0,174000.0,157000.0,149000.0,165000.0,138000.0,131000.0,122000.0,126000.0,143000.0,153000.0,165000.0,181000.0,226000.0,190000.0,166000.0,178000.0,149000.0,141000.0,130000.0,139000.0,145000.0,150000.0,164000.0,184000.0,191000.0,172000.0,165000.0,185000.0,155000.0,147000.0,136000.0,140000.0,147000.0,153000.0,167000.0,187000.0,194000.0,176000.0,168000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[210000.0,205000.0,215000.0,200000.0,210000.0,190000.0,180000.0,195000.0,215000.0,235000.0,230000.0,190000.0,225000.0,220000.0,225000.0,205000.0,215000.0,195000.0,185000.0,200000.0,220000.0,240000.0,235000.0,195000.0,230000.0,225000.0,230000.0,210000.0,220000.0,200000.0,190000.0,205000.0,225000.0,245000.0,240000.0,200000.0,235000.0,230000.0,235000.0,215000.0,225000.0,205000.0,195000.0,210000.0,230000.0,250000.0,245000.0,205000.0,240000.0,235000.0,260000.0,250000.0,235000.0,215000.0,200000.0,215000.0,230000.0,250000.0,245000.0,205000.0,240000.0,235000.0,240000.0,220000.0,225000.0,205000.0,190000.0,205000.0,225000.0,245000.0,240000.0,200000.0,230000.0,225000.0,230000.0,210000.0,215000.0,195000.0,185000.0,200000.0,220000.0,240000.0,235000.0,195000.0,225000.0,220000.0,225000.0,205000.0,210000.0,190000.0,180000.0,195000.0,215000.0,235000.0,230000.0,190000.0,215000.0,210000.0,215000.0,195000.0,200000.0,182000.0,172000.0,185000.0,205000.0,225000.0,220000.0,182000.0,205000.0,200000.0,205000.0,187000.0,190000.0,172000.0,162000.0,175000.0,195000.0,212000.0,208000.0,172000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[75000.0,79000.0,92000.0,75000.0,97000.0,93000.0,66000.0,116000.0,122000.0,93000.0,79000.0,84000.0,87000.0,88000.0,105000.0,83000.0,107000.0,103000.0,73000.0,128000.0,137000.0,103000.0,89000.0,93000.0,93500.0,96500.0,117500.0,91000.0,118000.0,113000.0,80500.0,139500.0,150000.0,115500.0,96500.0,102000.0,105000.0,107500.0,130000.0,101500.0,131000.0,135000.0,89500.0,158000.0,170000.0,131000.0,107500.0,115000.0,117000.0,124000.0,181000.0,135000.0,164000.0,152000.0,119000.0,207000.0,201000.0,152000.0,134000.0,139000.0,131000.0,138000.0,162000.0,130000.0,170000.0,164000.0,118000.0,203000.0,215000.0,164000.0,142000.0,150000.0,150000.0,156000.0,186000.0,147000.0,195000.0,191000.0,133000.0,232000.0,252000.0,193000.0,159000.0,168000.0,154000.0,163000.0,196000.0,155000.0,199000.0,199000.0,136000.0,233000.0,251000.0,190000.0,163000.0,172000.0,154000.0,159000.0,188000.0,152000.0,197000.0,193000.0,142000.0,230000.0,246000.0,188000.0,161000.0,172000.0,159000.0,167000.0,197000.0,158000.0,206000.0,202000.0,142000.0,243000.0,257000.0,199000.0,169000.0,178000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[18300.0,17000.0,19600.0,18800.0,19000.0,18300.0,20500.0,24000.0,22500.0,22000.0,19300.0,16900.0,18700.0,17600.0,20700.0,19600.0,20100.0,19300.0,21700.0,25100.0,23900.0,23100.0,20200.0,17800.0,20500.0,19100.0,22400.0,21100.0,21800.0,20700.0,23200.0,27300.0,25500.0,24700.0,21600.0,19000.0,21800.0,20300.0,23600.0,22200.0,22900.0,22000.0,24600.0,28900.0,26800.0,26000.0,22600.0,19900.0,23700.0,28000.0,67500.0,79000.0,56500.0,43800.0,39800.0,45100.0,42500.0,39000.0,35200.0,31000.0,34300.0,30200.0,31500.0,29400.0,30900.0,28700.0,32900.0,38100.0,35500.0,32900.0,29400.0,26700.0,27900.0,25700.0,28200.0,26800.0,27100.0,25600.0,28600.0,33300.0,30900.0,29300.0,26200.0,23800.0,25200.0,23500.0,26200.0,24800.0,25100.0,23900.0,26800.0,31000.0,28900.0,27400.0,24400.0,22200.0,23800.0,22300.0,24900.0,23500.0,23900.0,22800.0,25500.0,29700.0,27600.0,26300.0,23400.0,21200.0,22800.0,21400.0,23900.0,22600.0,23000.0,21900.0,24600.0,28600.0,26600.0,25300.0,22600.0,20500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[21800.0,19900.0,19900.0,18600.0,18000.0,17100.0,16200.0,19000.0,21300.0,21300.0,19000.0,16200.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,19600.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,20000.0,22400.0,22400.0,20000.0,17000.0,24200.0,22100.0,22100.0,20600.0,20000.0,18900.0,17900.0,21000.0,23500.0,23500.0,21000.0,17900.0,25300.0,23100.0,23100.0,21600.0,20900.0,19800.0,18700.0,22000.0,24600.0,24600.0,22000.0,18700.0,27000.0,25000.0,55000.0,70000.0,42000.0,32000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27000.0,24000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20500.0,25000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,21000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,23000.0,25500.0,25500.0,23000.0,19500.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21500.0,21000.0,19500.0,18500.0,22000.0,24500.0,24500.0,22000.0,18500.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23500.0,32000.0,22000.0,20500.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,20500.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20500.0,20000.0,19000.0,17500.0,21000.0,23500.0,23500.0,21000.0,17500.0]}},{"title":"2010s in fashion","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"2010s in fashion\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[13470,12830,12285,18663,13263,10452,9627,11623,11765,11940,11461,11356,13643,12480,13235,13630,14138,12131,11600,11457,12778,13985,13904,13577,13337,11962,12575,14411,14698,11056,9681,9825,12142,12024,11286,11995,13497,12033,13501,12759,13798,11891,11163,12465,13592,15068,15478,21866,19735,13320,12229,12898,12041,9352,9174,9482,10173,11819,11556,10096,11580,9929,12062,11214,11462,9347,9113,9737,9714,10046,9365,11946,10461,9639,10899,10469,12116,10612,9767,8466,9285,10186,8220,9911,9262,7758,8811,8519,9493,8035,7549,7339,8337,8512,8536,12923,7550,7486,7191,7261,8809,6343,5972,6272,6299,6116,5841,5912,6362,5713,9046,5997,6782,5669,5408,6096,6516,6284,5819,5414],"flat_reference_value":17007.511415807327,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[4600.0,4300.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,4600.0,4400.0,4700.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,5800.0,6200.0,5200.0,5700.0,5500.0,5800.0,5300.0,5100.0,5500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,6800.0,7100.0,6100.0,6600.0,6400.0,6700.0,6200.0,6000.0,6400.0,7100.0,7400.0,7200.0,8200.0,8700.0,7300.0,7900.0,7700.0,8100.0,7600.0,7500.0,8200.0,9400.0,10300.0,12000.0,18000.0,22000.0,14500.0,13700.0,12600.0,12200.0,11600.0,11200.0,11800.0,12500.0,12900.0,12200.0,13700.0,14200.0,11600.0,12000.0,11500.0,11800.0,10800.0,10500.0,11000.0,11700.0,12100.0,11400.0,12500.0,13000.0,10800.0,11200.0,10600.0,11000.0,10100.0,9900.0,10400.0,11200.0,11500.0,10900.0,11900.0,12300.0,10300.0,10800.0,10300.0,10700.0,9900.0,9800.0,10300.0,11100.0,11400.0,10800.0,11800.0,12500.0,10600.0,11200.0,10900.0,11400.0,10600.0,10500.0,11000.0,11900.0,12300.0,11700.0,12800.0,13700.0,11600.0,12200.0,11900.0,12400.0,11600.0,11500.0,12100.0,13000.0,13500.0,12800.0,14000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[18420.0,17650.0,19110.0,19480.0,19830.0,17940.0,18210.0,19350.0,20890.0,22640.0,20410.0,20980.0,21850.0,19720.0,21540.0,21390.0,21960.0,19880.0,20150.0,21430.0,23120.0,25490.0,22760.0,23310.0,24680.0,22190.0,24350.0,24110.0,24720.0,22340.0,22890.0,24160.0,26040.0,28930.0,25870.0,27450.0,29120.0,25640.0,27980.0,27610.0,28430.0,26190.0,27340.0,28950.0,31420.0,35680.0,38910.0,64820.0,59340.0,36410.0,35180.0,38760.0,39420.0,34290.0,33850.0,35610.0,37940.0,41830.0,36520.0,37890.0,39150.0,34870.0,37420.0,36910.0,37280.0,33460.0,33920.0,36180.0,39840.0,46210.0,38750.0,39640.0,43890.0,38120.0,40560.0,39430.0,39870.0,35140.0,35680.0,37920.0,41650.0,48390.0,39410.0,38260.0,40120.0,35480.0,38290.0,37150.0,37640.0,32980.0,33410.0,35870.0,39460.0,45720.0,36890.0,35740.0,37210.0,33180.0,35420.0,34190.0,34650.0,29840.0,30290.0,32410.0,35860.0,41950.0,33420.0,32180.0,33640.0,29450.0,31820.0,30740.0,31190.0,26830.0,27350.0,29140.0,32680.0,38420.0,30150.0,29380.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[6200.0,6500.0,7100.0,6800.0,6500.0,5900.0,5400.0,6100.0,7500.0,8900.0,8200.0,7800.0,8500.0,8900.0,9800.0,9200.0,9000.0,7800.0,7500.0,8400.0,10200.0,12100.0,11400.0,10600.0,11200.0,11800.0,13100.0,12500.0,12000.0,10500.0,10100.0,11600.0,14000.0,16500.0,15200.0,14800.0,15500.0,15800.0,17200.0,16600.0,16900.0,15100.0,16000.0,18200.0,21500.0,25400.0,29800.0,38500.0,35200.0,24100.0,27600.0,33500.0,32100.0,26400.0,25800.0,28100.0,30500.0,35200.0,31400.0,29700.0,31500.0,36200.0,34800.0,30100.0,28500.0,26200.0,27000.0,30400.0,33800.0,39200.0,35100.0,33400.0,34200.0,33000.0,35600.0,32800.0,31200.0,28500.0,29100.0,32400.0,36500.0,42100.0,37000.0,34500.0,35800.0,34500.0,37200.0,34000.0,32500.0,29800.0,30200.0,33600.0,38100.0,44500.0,39200.0,36000.0,36500.0,35200.0,38000.0,34500.0,33000.0,30500.0,31000.0,34800.0,39500.0,46200.0,40500.0,37200.0,37000.0,36000.0,38500.0,35000.0,33500.0,31000.0,31500.0,35000.0,40000.0,47000.0,41000.0,38000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22500.0,21000.0,18500.0,18000.0,19000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28500.0,27500.0,26000.0,23000.0,22500.0,23500.0,27000.0,29500.0,30500.0,28000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33500.0,32500.0,31000.0,27500.0,27000.0,28500.0,32500.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0,40000.0,44000.0,50000.0,68000.0,72000.0,58000.0,57000.0,62000.0,56000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,50000.0,52000.0,51000.0,49000.0,52000.0,51000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,47000.0,49000.0,50000.0,47000.0,51000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,47000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,46000.0,48000.0,48000.0,45000.0,49000.0,48000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33500.0,32000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26500.0,27000.0,29500.0,30500.0,29500.0,27500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[125000.0,118000.0,120000.0,115000.0,112000.0,102000.0,100000.0,104000.0,110000.0,114000.0,112000.0,108000.0,112000.0,104000.0,108000.0,102000.0,100000.0,92000.0,90000.0,92000.0,96000.0,100000.0,98000.0,95000.0,98000.0,90000.0,92000.0,88000.0,86000.0,80000.0,79000.0,80000.0,83000.0,86000.0,85000.0,84000.0,88000.0,80000.0,82000.0,79000.0,78000.0,74000.0,75000.0,77000.0,82000.0,90000.0,100000.0,135000.0,125000.0,90000.0,82000.0,88000.0,85000.0,76000.0,74000.0,72000.0,70000.0,70000.0,68000.0,68000.0,68000.0,62000.0,63000.0,60000.0,59000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,56000.0,54000.0,53000.0,54000.0,49000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4200.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3300.0,3100.0,3400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4600.0,4800.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,4300.0,3700.0,3500.0,3900.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,5200.0,5500.0,4900.0,5100.0,5200.0,5000.0,4200.0,4000.0,4500.0,5600.0,5700.0,5500.0,6300.0,6200.0,5500.0,5800.0,5900.0,5600.0,4800.0,4600.0,5100.0,6500.0,7000.0,9500.0,32000.0,36000.0,13000.0,10500.0,8500.0,8000.0,6800.0,6400.0,7200.0,8800.0,9200.0,8900.0,11000.0,11500.0,9000.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,7500.0,7000.0,7800.0,9300.0,9600.0,12000.0,13500.0,12500.0,10000.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,8400.0,8000.0,8800.0,10500.0,10800.0,11000.0,13000.0,13500.0,11000.0,11200.0,11000.0,10800.0,9200.0,8800.0,9800.0,11800.0,12000.0,11800.0,14500.0,15000.0,12500.0,12800.0,12500.0,12200.0,10500.0,10000.0,11000.0,13500.0,13800.0,13500.0,16500.0,17000.0,14000.0,14200.0,14000.0,13800.0,11800.0,11200.0,12500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15200.0,18500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[10234.0,9812.0,10845.0,10412.0,11120.0,10567.0,10189.0,10654.0,12187.0,11432.0,10890.0,9923.0,9845.0,9234.0,10211.0,9876.0,10543.0,9987.0,9678.0,10123.0,11654.0,10987.0,10345.0,9512.0,9234.0,8765.0,9689.0,9345.0,9921.0,9412.0,9123.0,9567.0,10984.0,10234.0,9765.0,8945.0,9345.0,8876.0,9723.0,9456.0,9987.0,9567.0,9345.0,9789.0,11234.0,10789.0,10945.0,13876.0,15623.0,12845.0,13987.0,13234.0,11876.0,10894.0,10456.0,10678.0,12112.0,11543.0,10987.0,10234.0,10456.0,9423.0,10567.0,9987.0,10234.0,9678.0,9345.0,9612.0,10876.0,10345.0,9876.0,9123.0,9234.0,8567.0,9567.0,9123.0,9456.0,8934.0,8678.0,8945.0,10123.0,9678.0,9234.0,8567.0,8876.0,8234.0,9345.0,9012.0,9567.0,9123.0,8890.0,9234.0,10789.0,10156.0,9734.0,9012.0,9345.0,8765.0,9789.0,9456.0,10023.0,9567.0,9234.0,9678.0,11123.0,10567.0,10012.0,9345.0,9567.0,8876.0,9876.0,9432.0,9923.0,9456.0,9123.0,9456.0,10845.0,10234.0,9765.0,8987.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[8420.0,7580.0,8110.0,7730.0,7460.0,7020.0,6740.0,7390.0,9180.0,8540.0,8210.0,9030.0,10420.0,9140.0,9760.0,9280.0,8940.0,8570.0,8120.0,8830.0,11020.0,10180.0,9760.0,10840.0,12380.0,11140.0,11820.0,11360.0,10920.0,10480.0,9940.0,10760.0,13520.0,12640.0,12180.0,13840.0,15180.0,13760.0,14540.0,13920.0,13580.0,13140.0,12760.0,13820.0,16540.0,16780.0,18240.0,26120.0,42380.0,27940.0,18860.0,15420.0,14180.0,12940.0,12180.0,12620.0,15040.0,13480.0,12760.0,13620.0,15840.0,12580.0,13020.0,12360.0,11780.0,10940.0,10180.0,10820.0,13240.0,11980.0,11540.0,12380.0,14220.0,12760.0,13580.0,12940.0,12580.0,11960.0,11380.0,12180.0,15020.0,14180.0,13760.0,14840.0,16820.0,15180.0,15960.0,15380.0,14920.0,14180.0,13560.0,14420.0,17580.0,16740.0,16180.0,17360.0,18360.0,16740.0,17520.0,16940.0,16380.0,15520.0,14760.0,15780.0,18940.0,17920.0,17180.0,18320.0,17520.0,15940.0,16720.0,16180.0,15540.0,14720.0,13980.0,14920.0,17960.0,16880.0,16140.0,17180.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1350.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,1250.0,1150.0,1050.0,1000.0,1250.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1200.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,850.0,1150.0,1050.0,950.0,900.0,1300.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,1250.0,1150.0,1050.0,1000.0,1500.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1150.0,1000.0,950.0,1050.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1900.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1300.0,1200.0,1350.0,1800.0,1650.0,1500.0,1450.0,2400.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,3000.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2050.0,1900.0,2150.0,2900.0,2650.0,2400.0,2300.0,3800.0,3150.0,3000.0,2850.0,2850.0,2550.0,2400.0,2700.0,3600.0,3300.0,3000.0,2850.0,4300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3250.0,3250.0,2900.0,2750.0,3050.0,4100.0,3750.0,3400.0,3250.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1070.0,673.0,664.0,559.0,626.0,506.0,518.0,535.0,761.0,666.0,670.0,530.0,786.0,753.0,721.0,638.0,720.0,566.0,591.0,610.0,843.0,761.0,1050.0,663.0,790.0,897.0,1201.0,687.0,800.0,642.0,637.0,637.0,954.0,845.0,801.0,680.0,979.0,1970.0,1132.0,879.0,819.0,772.0,693.0,813.0,1425.0,996.0,844.0,1251.0,1829.0,1270.0,1573.0,1194.0,1090.0,873.0,895.0,922.0,1325.0,1660.0,1157.0,944.0,1037.0,1154.0,969.0,998.0,970.0,877.0,771.0,924.0,1145.0,1154.0,1977.0,1275.0,1587.0,1043.0,1029.0,875.0,970.0,809.0,835.0,811.0,1179.0,1076.0,1049.0,1070.0,1656.0,1472.0,891.0,910.0,884.0,823.0,980.0,777.0,1107.0,968.0,985.0,821.0,988.0,956.0,916.0,1159.0,905.0,704.0,751.0,743.0,1049.0,966.0,961.0,769.0,869.0,958.0,796.0,837.0,805.0,728.0,647.0,760.0,960.0,939.0,813.0,779.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3100.0,2900.0,2950.0,2650.0,2800.0,2450.0,2400.0,2500.0,2900.0,2850.0,2700.0,3100.0,3400.0,3200.0,3250.0,2950.0,3100.0,2750.0,2700.0,2800.0,3250.0,3200.0,3050.0,3450.0,3800.0,3550.0,3600.0,3300.0,3500.0,3050.0,3000.0,3100.0,3600.0,3550.0,3350.0,3850.0,4600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4100.0,4500.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,4700.0,5600.0,6200.0,14000.0,24000.0,13000.0,8500.0,6000.0,5200.0,4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4900.0,4700.0,4200.0,4800.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,4300.0,4600.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4600.0,4500.0,6200.0,5600.0,4400.0,4100.0,4200.0,3850.0,4100.0,3600.0,3550.0,3650.0,4200.0,4100.0,3950.0,4400.0,3700.0,3450.0,3500.0,3250.0,3450.0,3050.0,3000.0,3100.0,3550.0,3500.0,3300.0,3700.0,3150.0,2950.0,3000.0,2750.0,2950.0,2600.0,2550.0,2650.0,3050.0,3000.0,2850.0,3200.0,2750.0,2600.0,2650.0,2450.0,2650.0,2350.0,2300.0,2400.0,2750.0,2700.0,2600.0,2900.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[5200.0,5600.0,4900.0,4800.0,5700.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,5700.0,5000.0,5200.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,5200.0,5000.0,6200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,6200.0,5300.0,5500.0,5900.0,6000.0,6600.0,5600.0,5400.0,6800.0,5500.0,5100.0,5200.0,6800.0,5900.0,6300.0,7000.0,7100.0,7800.0,6600.0,6300.0,7900.0,6700.0,6200.0,6400.0,8100.0,7300.0,8500.0,9900.0,9300.0,7900.0,7600.0,8600.0,8900.0,7800.0,7400.0,7400.0,8200.0,7600.0,7800.0,8000.0,7700.0,7300.0,6700.0,6400.0,7400.0,6400.0,6100.0,6200.0,7200.0,6500.0,6600.0,6800.0,6700.0,6900.0,6300.0,6000.0,6800.0,6000.0,5700.0,5800.0,6800.0,6200.0,6300.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,5900.0,5600.0,6400.0,5500.0,5200.0,5300.0,6200.0,5600.0,5800.0,5900.0,5800.0,6000.0,5400.0,5200.0,6000.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,5900.0,5300.0,5500.0,5600.0,5900.0,6300.0,5600.0,5300.0,6100.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,6000.0,5400.0,5600.0,5800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2100.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2200.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2200.0,2100.0,2400.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2400.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3700.0,3400.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,3100.0,3700.0,3800.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3200.0,3800.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,3700.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,3100.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3500.0,2900.0,2800.0,3200.0,3700.0,3900.0,3700.0,3000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3300.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,2800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1900.0,2250.0,2620.0,2320.0,2510.0,1520.0,1140.0,1410.0,2920.0,2550.0,2040.0,2420.0,2750.0,3170.0,3650.0,3320.0,3620.0,2370.0,1800.0,2150.0,4090.0,3660.0,3070.0,3560.0,4030.0,4520.0,5230.0,4700.0,5120.0,3340.0,2770.0,3130.0,5620.0,5070.0,4290.0,5010.0,6060.0,6630.0,7670.0,6630.0,7530.0,5220.0,4190.0,4990.0,8680.0,9150.0,11370.0,14890.0,35280.0,21850.0,28720.0,19420.0,16830.0,11920.0,9630.0,11850.0,18160.0,16160.0,14650.0,20870.0,15120.0,11160.0,13480.0,10100.0,10660.0,7420.0,6140.0,7350.0,11110.0,9770.0,8700.0,10830.0,8480.0,6250.0,7550.0,5720.0,6370.0,4330.0,3660.0,4510.0,7370.0,6220.0,5330.0,6490.0,6160.0,4930.0,5750.0,4430.0,5080.0,3640.0,3060.0,3840.0,6010.0,5330.0,4580.0,5490.0,7230.0,5470.0,6590.0,5000.0,5910.0,4110.0,3500.0,4470.0,7700.0,6670.0,5620.0,6740.0,6120.0,4660.0,5710.0,4350.0,5220.0,3650.0,3090.0,3950.0,6520.0,5580.0,4700.0,5650.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[430.0,390.0,420.0,405.0,390.0,410.0,430.0,415.0,450.0,470.0,460.0,520.0,480.0,430.0,450.0,440.0,425.0,450.0,470.0,455.0,490.0,510.0,500.0,570.0,550.0,500.0,520.0,510.0,495.0,525.0,560.0,540.0,590.0,620.0,610.0,700.0,680.0,620.0,650.0,640.0,630.0,670.0,720.0,710.0,850.0,1050.0,1300.0,2900.0,3600.0,2400.0,1900.0,1750.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1750.0,1850.0,1950.0,2000.0,2300.0,1600.0,1250.0,1180.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1080.0,1200.0,1250.0,1220.0,1450.0,1300.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1120.0,1100.0,1300.0,1180.0,1020.0,980.0,940.0,900.0,950.0,990.0,960.0,1040.0,1080.0,1050.0,1200.0,1100.0,950.0,920.0,880.0,850.0,900.0,930.0,900.0,980.0,1010.0,990.0,1150.0,1050.0,900.0,870.0,840.0,810.0,850.0,890.0,860.0,930.0,960.0,940.0,1080.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,900.0,880.0,900.0,1020.0,1030.0,1000.0,950.0,1012.0,966.0,966.0,920.0,902.0,828.0,810.0,828.0,938.0,948.0,920.0,874.0,913.0,872.0,872.0,830.0,813.0,747.0,730.0,747.0,847.0,855.0,830.0,789.0,902.0,861.0,861.0,820.0,804.0,738.0,722.0,738.0,836.0,845.0,820.0,1400.0,1150.0,840.0,840.0,800.0,784.0,720.0,704.0,720.0,816.0,824.0,800.0,760.0,748.0,714.0,714.0,680.0,666.0,612.0,598.0,612.0,694.0,700.0,680.0,646.0,660.0,630.0,630.0,600.0,588.0,540.0,528.0,540.0,612.0,618.0,600.0,570.0,594.0,567.0,567.0,540.0,529.0,486.0,475.0,486.0,551.0,556.0,540.0,513.0,550.0,525.0,525.0,500.0,490.0,450.0,440.0,450.0,510.0,515.0,500.0,475.0,506.0,483.0,483.0,460.0,451.0,414.0,405.0,414.0,469.0,474.0,460.0,437.0]}},{"title":"Spider-Man 2","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Spider-Man 2\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[51979,45599,64608,64075,73221,51938,48359,48985,46210,50965,54474,59689,54906,45188,56640,47997,48753,65863,161815,65131,41935,50320,45121,48340,49825,46603,56176,68031,80284,55991,56785,56741,112720,75133,51583,69268,75384,47011,48814,51985,71536,66424,127324,76224,52008,45688,43418,41348,41616,44577,56113,86400,75760,63649,64205,58070,51249,68857,77319,96759,69199,60072,66821,73442,72622,62538,70856,240447,157344,88567,146391,520179,235580,83652,91777,77455,76700,62755,68446,89980,62047,51874,63117,59526,61277,47669,52220,60938,76399,106285,86804,69947,65430,137651,100574,81415,84044,69269,77074,88578,61317,57855,62574,73906,56095,57592,57980,61880,66529,59861,59887,52044,50829,47850,64004,116632,57451,48053,41209,44763],"flat_reference_value":16844.982289166604,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[78000.0,71000.0,76000.0,74000.0,80000.0,85000.0,96000.0,85000.0,72000.0,74000.0,76000.0,88000.0,80000.0,74000.0,81000.0,79000.0,87000.0,110000.0,210000.0,125000.0,92000.0,85000.0,83000.0,98000.0,90000.0,80000.0,83000.0,95000.0,105000.0,98000.0,110000.0,99000.0,105000.0,95000.0,92000.0,150000.0,115000.0,90000.0,105000.0,110000.0,110000.0,145000.0,250000.0,155000.0,105000.0,98000.0,95000.0,115000.0,110000.0,98000.0,115000.0,125000.0,120000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,100000.0,115000.0,125000.0,140000.0,135000.0,120000.0,120000.0,115000.0,120000.0,125000.0,145000.0,210000.0,180000.0,185000.0,360000.0,1600000.0,950000.0,450000.0,350000.0,260000.0,240000.0,200000.0,220000.0,190000.0,180000.0,165000.0,155000.0,175000.0,165000.0,140000.0,145000.0,145000.0,150000.0,210000.0,185000.0,150000.0,135000.0,190000.0,150000.0,150000.0,140000.0,125000.0,130000.0,200000.0,150000.0,145000.0,170000.0,140000.0,120000.0,120000.0,115000.0,135000.0,130000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,115000.0,125000.0,135000.0,120000.0,105000.0,110000.0,110000.0,130000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[115000.0,102000.0,112000.0,116000.0,155000.0,125000.0,120000.0,110000.0,98000.0,102000.0,100000.0,112000.0,115000.0,100000.0,110000.0,115000.0,122000.0,148000.0,260000.0,165000.0,120000.0,114000.0,110000.0,118000.0,120000.0,105000.0,115000.0,142000.0,148000.0,125000.0,124000.0,120000.0,158000.0,140000.0,175000.0,168000.0,140000.0,115000.0,120000.0,145000.0,150000.0,160000.0,250000.0,165000.0,130000.0,120000.0,116000.0,125000.0,130000.0,116000.0,140000.0,165000.0,160000.0,145000.0,140000.0,135000.0,125000.0,130000.0,145000.0,215000.0,165000.0,140000.0,145000.0,155000.0,150000.0,145000.0,155000.0,395000.0,240000.0,210000.0,315000.0,1420000.0,680000.0,290000.0,260000.0,210000.0,235000.0,175000.0,165000.0,155000.0,142000.0,140000.0,135000.0,150000.0,155000.0,135000.0,145000.0,145000.0,195000.0,255000.0,195000.0,165000.0,185000.0,420000.0,230000.0,175000.0,160000.0,145000.0,150000.0,215000.0,175000.0,185000.0,160000.0,145000.0,130000.0,135000.0,125000.0,135000.0,132000.0,115000.0,122000.0,120000.0,125000.0,130000.0,138000.0,142000.0,120000.0,118000.0,115000.0,128000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[72000.0,66000.0,69000.0,64000.0,71000.0,67000.0,65000.0,62000.0,58000.0,61000.0,59000.0,64000.0,65000.0,59000.0,63000.0,61000.0,68000.0,89000.0,128000.0,88000.0,68000.0,67000.0,65000.0,72000.0,71000.0,63000.0,67000.0,82000.0,85000.0,74000.0,76000.0,72000.0,89000.0,77000.0,73000.0,104000.0,88000.0,74000.0,78000.0,95000.0,98000.0,112000.0,145000.0,105000.0,82000.0,79000.0,76000.0,83000.0,81000.0,74000.0,88000.0,102000.0,96000.0,85000.0,84000.0,81000.0,80000.0,86000.0,88000.0,135000.0,112000.0,96000.0,98000.0,125000.0,105000.0,102000.0,115000.0,275000.0,175000.0,162000.0,228000.0,740000.0,435000.0,245000.0,195000.0,155000.0,168000.0,125000.0,118000.0,108000.0,112000.0,98000.0,96000.0,105000.0,102000.0,89000.0,92000.0,91000.0,104000.0,138000.0,112000.0,98000.0,103000.0,215000.0,142000.0,116000.0,106000.0,94000.0,99000.0,210000.0,135000.0,108000.0,105000.0,99000.0,93000.0,97000.0,94000.0,102000.0,98000.0,88000.0,91000.0,89000.0,94000.0,97000.0,104000.0,96000.0,89000.0,92000.0,90000.0,98000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[72000.0,66000.0,68000.0,67000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,60000.0,62000.0,64000.0,70000.0,68000.0,62000.0,64000.0,63000.0,66000.0,70000.0,82000.0,68000.0,62000.0,62000.0,63000.0,68000.0,66000.0,60000.0,62000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,72000.0,66000.0,60000.0,62000.0,64000.0,64000.0,66000.0,74000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,64000.0,60000.0,70000.0,78000.0,72000.0,68000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,72000.0,70000.0,115000.0,95000.0,88000.0,85000.0,84000.0,82000.0,80000.0,82000.0,110000.0,95000.0,92000.0,150000.0,380000.0,260000.0,150000.0,125000.0,115000.0,105000.0,95000.0,92000.0,88000.0,90000.0,85000.0,84000.0,92000.0,86000.0,80000.0,82000.0,88000.0,86000.0,95000.0,82000.0,80000.0,85000.0,120000.0,95000.0,90000.0,82000.0,76000.0,76000.0,80000.0,78000.0,86000.0,80000.0,76000.0,78000.0,76000.0,74000.0,80000.0,76000.0,70000.0,72000.0,72000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,68000.0,67000.0,72000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[75000.0,70000.0,75000.0,78000.0,95000.0,80000.0,80000.0,75000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,80000.0,80000.0,72000.0,82000.0,80000.0,85000.0,105000.0,230000.0,125000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,90000.0,85000.0,78000.0,80000.0,90000.0,100000.0,85000.0,88000.0,85000.0,105000.0,90000.0,88000.0,125000.0,115000.0,90000.0,90000.0,100000.0,105000.0,115000.0,210000.0,140000.0,105000.0,95000.0,90000.0,95000.0,95000.0,85000.0,95000.0,120000.0,115000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,100000.0,100000.0,130000.0,115000.0,105000.0,105000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,115000.0,170000.0,140000.0,135000.0,210000.0,850000.0,480000.0,220000.0,200000.0,170000.0,180000.0,140000.0,140000.0,125000.0,120000.0,105000.0,100000.0,110000.0,105000.0,95000.0,100000.0,105000.0,120000.0,190000.0,140000.0,115000.0,115000.0,230000.0,140000.0,115000.0,105000.0,95000.0,105000.0,150000.0,120000.0,110000.0,120000.0,105000.0,90000.0,88000.0,85000.0,90000.0,90000.0,80000.0,82000.0,85000.0,82000.0,80000.0,90000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,72000.0,78000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[40000.0,38000.0,55000.0,50000.0,62000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,47000.0,42000.0,40000.0,46000.0,50000.0,55000.0,60000.0,66000.0,54000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,44000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,43000.0,49000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50000.0,56000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,44000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,50000.0,56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,78000.0,62000.0,66000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,52000.0,55000.0,57000.0,78000.0,70000.0,82000.0,135000.0,650000.0,320000.0,180000.0,120000.0,95000.0,68000.0,58000.0,54000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,53000.0,62000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,55000.0,58000.0,62000.0,85000.0,230000.0,120000.0,75000.0,62000.0,53000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,54000.0,52000.0,60000.0,58000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,58000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[102345.0,89210.0,95120.0,105400.0,168300.0,132500.0,118900.0,108400.0,96500.0,98700.0,102800.0,115600.0,98000.0,87500.0,92800.0,105000.0,132000.0,215000.0,385000.0,198000.0,135000.0,118000.0,125000.0,118000.0,110000.0,105000.0,118000.0,195000.0,165000.0,135000.0,140000.0,125000.0,152000.0,135000.0,128000.0,175000.0,130000.0,125000.0,145000.0,265000.0,210000.0,185000.0,420000.0,225000.0,155000.0,138000.0,132000.0,148000.0,135000.0,128000.0,165000.0,185000.0,175000.0,150000.0,145000.0,138000.0,132000.0,130000.0,128000.0,155000.0,140000.0,165000.0,150000.0,145000.0,148000.0,155000.0,165000.0,285000.0,210000.0,225000.0,340000.0,950000.0,620000.0,350000.0,260000.0,230000.0,280000.0,210000.0,225000.0,195000.0,180000.0,175000.0,190000.0,205000.0,175000.0,165000.0,170000.0,180000.0,210000.0,325000.0,240000.0,185000.0,175000.0,265000.0,210000.0,185000.0,160000.0,150000.0,155000.0,148000.0,150000.0,158000.0,175000.0,165000.0,152000.0,168000.0,155000.0,170000.0,150000.0,145000.0,148000.0,162000.0,170000.0,165000.0,185000.0,170000.0,155000.0,150000.0,158000.0,172000.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[53000.0,51500.0,58000.0,59500.0,66000.0,72500.0,71000.0,61500.0,52500.0,56000.0,59500.0,72000.0,58500.0,57000.0,65000.0,66500.0,72500.0,84000.0,158000.0,92000.0,69500.0,73500.0,78500.0,94000.0,73500.0,71500.0,81500.0,148000.0,132000.0,91500.0,93500.0,83000.0,72500.0,77500.0,84000.0,112000.0,83500.0,84500.0,108000.0,198000.0,168000.0,128000.0,178000.0,118000.0,94500.0,98500.0,108000.0,132000.0,85500.0,83500.0,97500.0,103000.0,96500.0,101000.0,106000.0,93500.0,83500.0,89500.0,92500.0,108000.0,95500.0,93500.0,98500.0,99500.0,103000.0,108000.0,114000.0,112000.0,118000.0,135000.0,178000.0,325000.0,172000.0,128000.0,114000.0,127000.0,178000.0,116000.0,110000.0,101000.0,96500.0,102000.0,109000.0,121000.0,101000.0,99500.0,103000.0,106000.0,113000.0,196000.0,132000.0,111000.0,106000.0,176000.0,127000.0,121000.0,90500.0,86500.0,89500.0,90500.0,97500.0,127000.0,106000.0,91500.0,83500.0,86500.0,93500.0,101000.0,83500.0,82500.0,80500.0,81500.0,87500.0,91500.0,90500.0,83500.0,76500.0,79500.0,83500.0,90500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[44000.0,42000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50000.0,55000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,50000.0,55000.0,55000.0,52000.0,56000.0,58000.0,62000.0,70000.0,95000.0,80000.0,65000.0,60000.0,62000.0,65000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,65000.0,68000.0,75000.0,72000.0,65000.0,62000.0,65000.0,85000.0,75000.0,68000.0,70000.0,75000.0,85000.0,95000.0,130000.0,100000.0,80000.0,75000.0,78000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,80000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,80000.0,85000.0,75000.0,72000.0,75000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,80000.0,85000.0,90000.0,95000.0,100000.0,180000.0,110000.0,100000.0,250000.0,1100000.0,550000.0,260000.0,160000.0,120000.0,105000.0,100000.0,110000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,100000.0,110000.0,100000.0,90000.0,95000.0,100000.0,110000.0,160000.0,130000.0,105000.0,95000.0,200000.0,120000.0,100000.0,95000.0,90000.0,95000.0,100000.0,105000.0,130000.0,115000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,100000.0,110000.0,100000.0,95000.0,100000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,125000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,105000.0,115000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[24000.0,21000.0,22000.0,26000.0,34000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,35000.0,52000.0,34000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,25000.0,26000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,36000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,55000.0,68000.0,50000.0,38000.0,39000.0,52000.0,42000.0,48000.0,62000.0,45000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,43000.0,41000.0,52000.0,58000.0,52000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,53000.0,45000.0,62000.0,68000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,56000.0,58000.0,62000.0,195000.0,125000.0,95000.0,105000.0,485000.0,390000.0,150000.0,100000.0,85000.0,98000.0,85000.0,70000.0,62000.0,68000.0,58000.0,56000.0,60000.0,52000.0,46000.0,47000.0,49000.0,52000.0,85000.0,68000.0,54000.0,49000.0,68000.0,56000.0,55000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,64000.0,66000.0,54000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,54000.0,62000.0,60000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,57000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,44000.0,37500.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37500.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36500.0,36500.0,42000.0,36000.0,36500.0,37500.0,35500.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,35500.0,35000.0,35000.0,41000.0,34500.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34500.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,33500.0,33000.0,33000.0,39000.0,33000.0,33500.0,42000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,47000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,42000.0,35000.0,35500.0,36500.0,35000.0,36000.0,40000.0,42000.0,39000.0,46000.0,52000.0,70000.0,260000.0,380000.0,300000.0,260000.0,210000.0,230000.0,190000.0,180000.0,160000.0,140000.0,125000.0,120000.0,150000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,92000.0,105000.0,98000.0,90000.0,85000.0,115000.0,100000.0,108000.0,82000.0,84000.0,80000.0,120000.0,170000.0,210000.0,165000.0,140000.0,100000.0,88000.0,85000.0,98000.0,78000.0,76000.0,78000.0,72000.0,74000.0,82000.0,80000.0,74000.0,88000.0,98000.0,108000.0,120000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[86000.0,89000.0,145000.0,99000.0,80000.0,83000.0,103000.0,122000.0,91000.0,87000.0,85000.0,101000.0,102000.0,94000.0,82000.0,73000.0,68000.0,66000.0,78000.0,80000.0,86000.0,84000.0,80000.0,94000.0,91000.0,88000.0,81000.0,75000.0,72000.0,81000.0,111000.0,104000.0,100000.0,105000.0,125000.0,228000.0,151000.0,115000.0,96000.0,85000.0,78000.0,86000.0,76000.0,75000.0,76000.0,80000.0,81000.0,99000.0,90000.0,87000.0,99000.0,106000.0,108000.0,101000.0,91000.0,88000.0,91000.0,96000.0,94000.0,110000.0,101000.0,96000.0,94000.0,93000.0,102000.0,95000.0,121000.0,132000.0,147000.0,174000.0,236000.0,408000.0,213000.0,152000.0,128000.0,110000.0,106000.0,103000.0,102000.0,103000.0,109000.0,115000.0,116000.0,149000.0,140000.0,129000.0,125000.0,132000.0,167000.0,272000.0,188000.0,159000.0,178000.0,422000.0,277000.0,224000.0,203000.0,178000.0,245000.0,347000.0,265000.0,197000.0,166000.0,151000.0,148000.0,146000.0,160000.0,241000.0,220000.0,183000.0,159000.0,142000.0,151000.0,176000.0,245000.0,190000.0,447000.0,264000.0,211000.0,218000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,52000.0,58000.0,44000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,42000.0,39000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,46000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,37000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,40000.0,62000.0,55000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,42000.0,36000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[213600.0,202400.0,261900.0,238800.0,349700.0,471200.0,416500.0,317400.0,247800.0,253200.0,263100.0,291400.0,265400.0,269800.0,326700.0,373200.0,350900.0,603800.0,901700.0,684300.0,372800.0,311600.0,301200.0,329900.0,243600.0,209800.0,274300.0,248700.0,236200.0,286400.0,299700.0,272900.0,233600.0,261200.0,327500.0,422800.0,246300.0,223100.0,278900.0,252400.0,287600.0,494800.0,671300.0,444900.0,310800.0,267200.0,278300.0,306700.0,245700.0,224600.0,303900.0,261200.0,248300.0,302800.0,315600.0,289900.0,246300.0,275400.0,289800.0,317200.0,246800.0,232400.0,305700.0,275200.0,261300.0,350400.0,368100.0,336700.0,312900.0,811200.0,548700.0,4676300.0,2026400.0,1498700.0,1248600.0,774200.0,552100.0,447300.0,1019400.0,748600.0,398400.0,372500.0,375900.0,412300.0,263700.0,247900.0,325600.0,294200.0,362800.0,615400.0,497600.0,392700.0,306800.0,311200.0,327500.0,356900.0,295400.0,278100.0,398800.0,360700.0,416200.0,910600.0,684700.0,417900.0,328500.0,346800.0,362400.0,398600.0,255200.0,241700.0,314800.0,286100.0,270900.0,317400.0,332600.0,314700.0,270300.0,330400.0,315800.0,378900.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,26000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,28000.0,32000.0,52000.0,39000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,34000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,30000.0,35000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,45000.0,65000.0,43000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,38000.0,34000.0,31000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,45000.0,42000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,44000.0,39000.0,38000.0,41000.0,43000.0,47000.0,54000.0,63000.0,90000.0,66000.0,82000.0,135000.0,280000.0,145000.0,85000.0,68000.0,58000.0,55000.0,60000.0,52000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,45000.0,55000.0,48000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,52000.0,60000.0,55000.0,58000.0,95000.0,72000.0,68000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,55000.0,62000.0,80000.0,60000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,60000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,51000.0,54000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,53000.0,61000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,3300.0,2800.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2600.0,9000.0,5500.0,3500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,4200.0,3500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0]}},{"title":"Louis Braille","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Louis Braille\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[30980,25153,16586,16986,17064,15023,15214,12470,15748,22056,21549,20796,32260,21133,19646,15971,18677,14347,14190,12481,14742,19420,20051,18655,35304,18606,17970,15915,17453,14222,14842,13628,16336,20758,18205,16238,51121,17887,19413,15028,15218,13727,12565,11463,14671,17090,15697,14551,25136,26422,14997,12400,12229,10004,9656,10616,12257,15788,14377,15731,29648,19113,17690,12623,13791,10796,10238,13658,13741,14304,14038,14642,28985,14701,13936,12806,12098,11391,10021,10896,12387,14242,14554,13014,32113,15924,14019,11100,13259,12720,12331,12017,24784,20764,18613,15130,30748,16704,14812,12959,13497,10723,11965,12065,12529,13539,12869,11836,29316,16252,12868,11225,14977,9556,9230,9854,12182,11996,11324,11640],"flat_reference_value":16970.70461972194,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[65000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,25000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,68000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,26000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,72000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,90000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,28000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,80000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,82000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,84000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,86000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,31000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,89000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,32000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,92000.0,39000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,33000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[54200.0,51800.0,50400.0,46900.0,43100.0,27400.0,21200.0,23500.0,36800.0,44200.0,45600.0,33900.0,55800.0,52400.0,53100.0,45200.0,43800.0,26500.0,20800.0,22900.0,35900.0,43500.0,44800.0,32400.0,56900.0,49800.0,49200.0,44600.0,41500.0,25100.0,19900.0,22100.0,34700.0,42100.0,43900.0,31800.0,74500.0,48900.0,48200.0,43700.0,40900.0,24600.0,19600.0,21800.0,34200.0,41300.0,41900.0,31200.0,71800.0,47600.0,36400.0,33800.0,31900.0,22400.0,19200.0,21100.0,31500.0,37800.0,38200.0,29600.0,68400.0,44900.0,45600.0,40200.0,37400.0,23100.0,18700.0,20400.0,31800.0,36900.0,37600.0,28400.0,65200.0,43100.0,43800.0,38400.0,35900.0,21900.0,17800.0,19500.0,30400.0,35200.0,36100.0,27100.0,61900.0,39800.0,40200.0,34800.0,32600.0,20100.0,16900.0,18400.0,27900.0,32400.0,33100.0,24800.0,63500.0,38400.0,37900.0,33500.0,31200.0,19400.0,17200.0,21600.0,29800.0,30900.0,31400.0,23600.0,56800.0,35100.0,34800.0,30900.0,28700.0,18100.0,15600.0,17100.0,25800.0,28900.0,29400.0,22100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[66200.0,45100.0,47800.0,44300.0,42100.0,32400.0,30200.0,33500.0,43800.0,51200.0,46400.0,36100.0,69800.0,46500.0,49100.0,43700.0,41500.0,33100.0,31000.0,34600.0,44900.0,52700.0,47300.0,37200.0,72500.0,48200.0,50800.0,45100.0,43300.0,34200.0,31800.0,35400.0,46200.0,54100.0,48600.0,38500.0,84700.0,50300.0,52600.0,46800.0,44500.0,35100.0,32900.0,36200.0,47500.0,55800.0,49700.0,39400.0,88200.0,52400.0,45600.0,48300.0,46100.0,36500.0,34100.0,37400.0,48600.0,56900.0,50800.0,40200.0,83900.0,50900.0,53200.0,47100.0,44800.0,35300.0,32800.0,36100.0,46800.0,54600.0,48500.0,38600.0,80100.0,48300.0,50400.0,44500.0,42100.0,33200.0,30900.0,34100.0,44800.0,51500.0,46200.0,36500.0,77800.0,46400.0,48200.0,42300.0,40100.0,31400.0,29300.0,32500.0,42900.0,49300.0,44100.0,34800.0,75600.0,44800.0,46300.0,40500.0,38400.0,29800.0,27900.0,31200.0,41300.0,47500.0,42400.0,33500.0,73200.0,43100.0,44700.0,38900.0,36800.0,28500.0,26600.0,29800.0,39700.0,45600.0,40800.0,32100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[80000.0,60000.0,61000.0,55000.0,54000.0,44000.0,38000.0,39000.0,52000.0,57000.0,58000.0,47000.0,73000.0,55000.0,55000.0,50000.0,50000.0,40000.0,35000.0,36000.0,47000.0,52000.0,52000.0,42000.0,67000.0,51000.0,51000.0,46000.0,46000.0,37000.0,32000.0,33000.0,44000.0,48000.0,48000.0,39000.0,76000.0,49000.0,48000.0,44000.0,44000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,42000.0,46000.0,46000.0,37000.0,62000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,35000.0,30000.0,30000.0,40000.0,44000.0,44000.0,36000.0,56000.0,42000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,30000.0,27000.0,27000.0,36000.0,40000.0,40000.0,32000.0,50000.0,37000.0,37000.0,34000.0,34000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,32000.0,36000.0,36000.0,29000.0,45000.0,34000.0,34000.0,31000.0,31000.0,25000.0,22000.0,22000.0,29000.0,33000.0,33000.0,26000.0,42000.0,32000.0,32000.0,29000.0,29000.0,23000.0,20000.0,21000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,25000.0,39000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27000.0,27000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,26000.0,28000.0,28000.0,23000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[135000.0,98000.0,95000.0,88000.0,85000.0,68000.0,60000.0,62000.0,80000.0,88000.0,88000.0,78000.0,140000.0,96000.0,95000.0,84000.0,84000.0,65000.0,58000.0,60000.0,78000.0,86000.0,86000.0,75000.0,135000.0,92000.0,90000.0,80000.0,80000.0,62000.0,56000.0,58000.0,74000.0,82000.0,82000.0,72000.0,165000.0,90000.0,88000.0,78000.0,78000.0,60000.0,55000.0,56000.0,72000.0,80000.0,80000.0,70000.0,160000.0,88000.0,85000.0,92000.0,88000.0,68000.0,58000.0,58000.0,72000.0,78000.0,78000.0,68000.0,150000.0,84000.0,82000.0,72000.0,70000.0,56000.0,50000.0,50000.0,64000.0,70000.0,70000.0,62000.0,135000.0,76000.0,74000.0,65000.0,65000.0,52000.0,47000.0,48000.0,60000.0,66000.0,66000.0,58000.0,130000.0,72000.0,72000.0,63000.0,63000.0,50000.0,46000.0,47000.0,58000.0,64000.0,63000.0,56000.0,125000.0,70000.0,68000.0,60000.0,60000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,55000.0,60000.0,60000.0,54000.0,120000.0,66000.0,64000.0,57000.0,56000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,52000.0,56000.0,55000.0,50000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[78000.0,46400.0,45800.0,45100.0,43700.0,40200.0,37600.0,38100.0,45300.0,47000.0,44500.0,41300.0,76000.0,44600.0,43700.0,42900.0,41600.0,38900.0,35400.0,36900.0,42300.0,44900.0,42500.0,40200.0,88000.0,41600.0,42400.0,40800.0,39700.0,37100.0,34200.0,35100.0,41200.0,42800.0,40300.0,37700.0,155000.0,40200.0,40600.0,39400.0,38200.0,35100.0,33000.0,33200.0,39600.0,41300.0,38900.0,36200.0,95000.0,42800.0,55400.0,56700.0,50900.0,43600.0,38000.0,38900.0,43500.0,45900.0,43700.0,41100.0,105000.0,41200.0,40700.0,39900.0,39300.0,36100.0,33400.0,33600.0,39400.0,41700.0,39500.0,36800.0,84000.0,39100.0,39600.0,38300.0,37200.0,34800.0,31500.0,32900.0,38000.0,40100.0,37900.0,35400.0,80000.0,38100.0,38500.0,37300.0,36200.0,33800.0,30800.0,32000.0,36900.0,39000.0,36900.0,34400.0,82000.0,37500.0,38000.0,36800.0,35700.0,33300.0,30400.0,31600.0,36500.0,38400.0,36400.0,34000.0,79000.0,36500.0,36900.0,35800.0,34700.0,32400.0,29500.0,30700.0,35500.0,37300.0,35400.0,33000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[42612.0,20134.0,21208.0,19765.0,19142.0,15988.0,13145.0,14402.0,18876.0,21153.0,19720.0,14983.0,41120.0,19210.0,20567.0,19188.0,18634.0,15502.0,12833.0,14015.0,18342.0,20611.0,19277.0,14652.0,41873.0,18745.0,19982.0,18690.0,18155.0,15120.0,12468.0,13644.0,17890.0,20034.0,18712.0,14208.0,42248.0,18510.0,19433.0,18205.0,17621.0,14702.0,12115.0,13287.0,17358.0,19496.0,18244.0,13871.0,47152.0,20683.0,26341.0,24890.0,23115.0,16840.0,15820.0,16735.0,19874.0,21833.0,20712.0,15948.0,50327.0,21194.0,22258.0,20831.0,20147.0,16892.0,14238.0,15106.0,19923.0,22145.0,20860.0,15872.0,41795.0,18792.0,19915.0,18733.0,17896.0,15148.0,12402.0,13398.0,17815.0,19672.0,18705.0,14136.0,45182.0,17935.0,18842.0,17710.0,17123.0,14315.0,11782.0,12894.0,16877.0,18895.0,17748.0,13452.0,43210.0,17462.0,18308.0,17245.0,16618.0,13890.0,11435.0,12512.0,16384.0,18327.0,17208.0,13074.0,41965.0,16928.0,17754.0,16702.0,16135.0,13488.0,11092.0,12137.0,15892.0,17783.0,16745.0,12798.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[149000.0,83000.0,81000.0,79000.0,77000.0,70000.0,66000.0,70000.0,90000.0,89000.0,87000.0,82000.0,147000.0,82000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,69000.0,66000.0,69000.0,89000.0,88000.0,86000.0,81000.0,145000.0,81000.0,79000.0,77000.0,75000.0,68000.0,65000.0,68000.0,87000.0,88000.0,85000.0,80000.0,248000.0,81000.0,78000.0,76000.0,74000.0,67000.0,64000.0,68000.0,87000.0,86000.0,84000.0,79000.0,158000.0,89000.0,88000.0,86000.0,81000.0,74000.0,70000.0,75000.0,95000.0,94000.0,92000.0,87000.0,153000.0,87000.0,84000.0,81000.0,79000.0,72000.0,69000.0,73000.0,93000.0,92000.0,90000.0,85000.0,146000.0,81000.0,79000.0,76000.0,75000.0,68000.0,65000.0,68000.0,88000.0,87000.0,85000.0,80000.0,141000.0,80000.0,77000.0,75000.0,73000.0,67000.0,63000.0,66000.0,86000.0,85000.0,83000.0,78000.0,136000.0,77000.0,74000.0,72000.0,70000.0,64000.0,61000.0,64000.0,83000.0,82000.0,79000.0,75000.0,127000.0,72000.0,69000.0,67000.0,66000.0,60000.0,57000.0,60000.0,78000.0,77000.0,74000.0,70000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[52000.0,37000.0,37500.0,36000.0,34500.0,33000.0,32500.0,34000.0,39000.0,38200.0,36800.0,34000.0,55000.0,38800.0,39500.0,38000.0,36500.0,35000.0,34200.0,35700.0,41000.0,40300.0,38800.0,35700.0,58000.0,40800.0,41600.0,40000.0,38400.0,36800.0,36000.0,37600.0,43200.0,42400.0,40800.0,37600.0,150000.0,45000.0,45800.0,44000.0,42200.0,40500.0,39600.0,41400.0,47500.0,46600.0,44900.0,41400.0,80000.0,46900.0,47800.0,46000.0,44200.0,42300.0,41400.0,43200.0,49700.0,48800.0,46900.0,43200.0,78000.0,47900.0,48900.0,47000.0,45100.0,43200.0,42300.0,44200.0,50800.0,49800.0,47900.0,44200.0,72000.0,45900.0,46800.0,45000.0,43200.0,41400.0,40500.0,42300.0,48600.0,47700.0,45900.0,42300.0,68000.0,43900.0,44700.0,43000.0,41300.0,39600.0,38700.0,40400.0,46400.0,45600.0,43900.0,40400.0,72000.0,45900.0,46800.0,45000.0,43200.0,41400.0,40500.0,42300.0,48600.0,47700.0,45900.0,42300.0,70000.0,44900.0,45800.0,44000.0,42200.0,40500.0,39600.0,41400.0,47500.0,46600.0,44900.0,41400.0],"meta/muse-ember":[23400.0,19200.0,18150.0,18300.0,17100.0,14900.0,13400.0,16050.0,21500.0,23800.0,19200.0,16400.0,23150.0,18100.0,18700.0,16950.0,17600.0,14000.0,13800.0,16200.0,20050.0,23550.0,18450.0,16200.0,23550.0,18050.0,17200.0,17400.0,16550.0,14400.0,12550.0,16000.0,19950.0,21900.0,18750.0,15350.0,38600.0,18050.0,17000.0,16850.0,16050.0,13850.0,13050.0,15200.0,19750.0,22750.0,17850.0,15500.0,22450.0,18650.0,18500.0,17950.0,17450.0,13600.0,13000.0,16050.0,20800.0,23050.0,19000.0,15400.0,22900.0,17200.0,17600.0,16400.0,16900.0,13600.0,12350.0,15850.0,20600.0,22400.0,18050.0,15400.0,21150.0,17250.0,16100.0,16450.0,15500.0,13200.0,11850.0,14550.0,18500.0,21950.0,17050.0,14800.0,21100.0,15750.0,15900.0,14700.0,15300.0,12200.0,11750.0,13500.0,17950.0,19850.0,17000.0,13500.0,18900.0,15700.0,14850.0,14700.0,13850.0,12300.0,10750.0,13650.0,17700.0,19600.0,15550.0,13250.0,18700.0,14100.0,14050.0,13150.0,13550.0,10850.0,10500.0,12350.0,15850.0,18100.0,14450.0,12350.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[66700.0,29000.0,29900.0,29000.0,29000.0,28100.0,26100.0,25500.0,30700.0,34200.0,29600.0,26100.0,70200.0,30500.0,31400.0,30500.0,30500.0,29600.0,27400.0,26800.0,32300.0,36000.0,31100.0,27400.0,73600.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,28800.0,28200.0,33900.0,37800.0,32600.0,28800.0,79400.0,34500.0,35500.0,34500.0,34500.0,33500.0,31100.0,30400.0,36600.0,40700.0,35200.0,31100.0,82800.0,36000.0,42500.0,46800.0,41000.0,37800.0,34200.0,33500.0,38200.0,42500.0,36700.0,32400.0,94300.0,41000.0,42200.0,41000.0,41000.0,39800.0,36900.0,36100.0,43500.0,48400.0,41800.0,36900.0,89700.0,39000.0,40200.0,39000.0,39000.0,37800.0,35100.0,34300.0,41300.0,43700.0,37100.0,33200.0,79400.0,34500.0,35500.0,34500.0,34500.0,33500.0,30400.0,29300.0,34500.0,38000.0,32800.0,28300.0,240000.0,42000.0,45000.0,48000.0,44000.0,47000.0,40000.0,38000.0,45000.0,54000.0,43000.0,39000.0,69000.0,30000.0,30900.0,30000.0,30000.0,29100.0,27000.0,26400.0,31800.0,35400.0,30600.0,27000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[26700.0,14250.0,14050.0,13650.0,14550.0,13700.0,12950.0,15200.0,16350.0,17450.0,16200.0,18250.0,28000.0,15000.0,14700.0,14350.0,15250.0,14500.0,13650.0,15900.0,17150.0,18300.0,17000.0,19100.0,29100.0,15700.0,15400.0,15050.0,15950.0,15000.0,14250.0,16700.0,18000.0,19150.0,17850.0,20000.0,43500.0,16400.0,16150.0,15700.0,16650.0,15650.0,14850.0,17500.0,18850.0,20000.0,18650.0,21100.0,34700.0,19200.0,19800.0,19300.0,19400.0,17850.0,17050.0,19900.0,21500.0,22850.0,21300.0,24100.0,38800.0,19600.0,19300.0,18750.0,19950.0,18700.0,17850.0,20950.0,22550.0,24000.0,22300.0,25100.0,37500.0,19150.0,18850.0,18350.0,19500.0,18250.0,17400.0,20400.0,22000.0,23350.0,21800.0,24500.0,40500.0,18550.0,18250.0,17750.0,18850.0,17650.0,16850.0,19750.0,21300.0,22600.0,21050.0,23750.0,33600.0,18050.0,17800.0,17350.0,18400.0,17250.0,16450.0,19250.0,20800.0,22050.0,20550.0,23150.0,33100.0,17850.0,17500.0,17050.0,18150.0,16950.0,16200.0,18950.0,20500.0,21750.0,20250.0,22850.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[9500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4300.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,5800.0,9800.0,7000.0,6800.0,6400.0,6200.0,4600.0,4100.0,4400.0,6100.0,6600.0,6600.0,5900.0,10000.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6200.0,4600.0,4100.0,4400.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,5800.0,12500.0,7200.0,6800.0,6400.0,6000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4300.0,5900.0,6400.0,6300.0,5600.0,12000.0,7000.0,6200.0,6000.0,5500.0,4500.0,4000.0,4200.0,5600.0,6000.0,6000.0,5400.0,11000.0,6800.0,6400.0,6000.0,5600.0,4300.0,3800.0,4000.0,5500.0,5900.0,5900.0,5200.0,10500.0,6500.0,6200.0,5800.0,5400.0,4100.0,3700.0,3900.0,5300.0,5700.0,5700.0,5000.0,10000.0,6200.0,6000.0,5500.0,5200.0,3900.0,3500.0,3700.0,5000.0,5400.0,5400.0,4800.0,9500.0,5900.0,5700.0,5300.0,5000.0,3700.0,3400.0,3600.0,4800.0,5200.0,5200.0,4600.0,9000.0,5600.0,5400.0,5000.0,4700.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,4500.0,4900.0,4900.0,4400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[62000.0,29500.0,23500.0,21500.0,21500.0,20200.0,16800.0,15200.0,29000.0,25000.0,21500.0,19800.0,46000.0,29000.0,23000.0,21500.0,21500.0,20000.0,16500.0,15000.0,28000.0,24000.0,21000.0,19500.0,43000.0,28500.0,22500.0,21000.0,21000.0,19500.0,16000.0,14800.0,27500.0,24000.0,21000.0,19500.0,45000.0,29000.0,23000.0,21500.0,21500.0,20000.0,16500.0,15000.0,28000.0,24500.0,21500.0,19500.0,59000.0,31500.0,25500.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16500.0,31000.0,27000.0,23500.0,21500.0,47000.0,30000.0,24000.0,22500.0,22500.0,21000.0,17000.0,15800.0,29500.0,25500.0,22000.0,20500.0,44000.0,28500.0,23000.0,21500.0,21500.0,20000.0,16500.0,15200.0,28500.0,24500.0,21000.0,19800.0,43000.0,28000.0,22500.0,21200.0,21200.0,19800.0,16200.0,15000.0,28000.0,24000.0,20800.0,19600.0,41000.0,27500.0,22000.0,20800.0,20800.0,19500.0,16000.0,14800.0,27500.0,23500.0,20500.0,19300.0,38500.0,27000.0,21800.0,20500.0,20500.0,19200.0,15800.0,14600.0,27200.0,23200.0,20200.0,19000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[10800.0,7600.0,7900.0,7400.0,7200.0,6900.0,6800.0,7000.0,7600.0,7900.0,7300.0,7100.0,11300.0,7700.0,8000.0,7500.0,7300.0,7000.0,6800.0,7100.0,7800.0,8100.0,7400.0,7200.0,11900.0,7900.0,8100.0,7600.0,7400.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,7900.0,8300.0,7500.0,7300.0,17300.0,8200.0,8400.0,7800.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,7300.0,8200.0,8600.0,7700.0,7400.0,18100.0,8500.0,8900.0,8100.0,7800.0,7400.0,7100.0,7400.0,8300.0,8800.0,7900.0,7600.0,18600.0,8300.0,8500.0,7900.0,7700.0,7300.0,7000.0,7300.0,8200.0,8700.0,7800.0,7500.0,17800.0,8100.0,8300.0,7700.0,7500.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,8000.0,8500.0,7600.0,7400.0,17100.0,7900.0,8100.0,7500.0,7300.0,6900.0,6700.0,7000.0,7800.0,8300.0,7400.0,7200.0,16900.0,7800.0,8000.0,7400.0,7200.0,6800.0,6600.0,6900.0,7700.0,8200.0,7300.0,7000.0,16500.0,7600.0,7800.0,7200.0,7000.0,6600.0,6400.0,6700.0,7500.0,8000.0,7100.0,6900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[66000.0,47500.0,48400.0,46200.0,44000.0,38700.0,36100.0,37400.0,46200.0,48400.0,46200.0,39600.0,67200.0,45400.0,46200.0,44100.0,42000.0,37000.0,34400.0,35700.0,44100.0,46200.0,44100.0,37800.0,64000.0,43200.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35200.0,32800.0,34000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,36000.0,97500.0,42100.0,42900.0,41000.0,39000.0,34300.0,32000.0,33200.0,41000.0,42900.0,41000.0,35100.0,84000.0,45400.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,37000.0,34400.0,35700.0,44100.0,46200.0,44100.0,37800.0,68400.0,41000.0,41800.0,39900.0,38000.0,33400.0,31200.0,32300.0,39900.0,41800.0,39900.0,34200.0,61200.0,38900.0,39600.0,37800.0,36000.0,31700.0,29500.0,30600.0,37800.0,39600.0,37800.0,32400.0,57800.0,36700.0,37400.0,35700.0,34000.0,29900.0,27900.0,28900.0,35700.0,37400.0,35700.0,30600.0,48000.0,32400.0,33000.0,31500.0,30000.0,26400.0,24600.0,25500.0,31500.0,33000.0,31500.0,27000.0,41600.0,28100.0,28600.0,27300.0,26000.0,22900.0,21300.0,22100.0,27300.0,28600.0,27300.0,23400.0]}},{"title":"Republic of Upper Volta","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Republic of Upper Volta\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[13873,5404,5504,4852,6124,5371,5753,8379,5513,7549,9936,7342,10666,6773,6506,5699,5969,5590,7434,8177,6813,7502,7284,7530,7544,7081,10081,7169,6318,6412,7229,6465,5212,5602,5437,6403,9309,5980,9313,6693,7375,7582,7003,7223,5793,7108,6195,7172,6602,6879,7336,9166,9183,7814,8716,8635,7033,7898,7040,8765,7991,7844,9372,9656,8750,9652,9092,11523,9887,12318,9205,10634,25190,15675,13667,13428,11067,11237,10745,11493,12114,19453,10965,12921,11631,9631,12023,10626,10685,11443,13967,33741,13147,11405,13595,12681,16116,12172,13726,12147,13654,13422,18363,16434,12281,13572,11424,13480,13280,12654,16043,18494,22345,15449,14778,15271,14303,14998,14183,15289],"flat_reference_value":17012.482183946286,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[8500.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7900.0,7600.0,8100.0,9400.0,8800.0,9000.0,8900.0,8500.0,9000.0,8200.0,8800.0,8500.0,8400.0,8100.0,8500.0,10000.0,9200.0,9400.0,9300.0,8900.0,9500.0,8700.0,9300.0,9000.0,9000.0,8600.0,9000.0,10500.0,9600.0,9900.0,9700.0,9300.0,10000.0,9100.0,9800.0,9500.0,9600.0,9100.0,9500.0,11000.0,10300.0,10500.0,10300.0,9900.0,10500.0,9700.0,10200.0,11000.0,10900.0,10200.0,10500.0,12500.0,10800.0,11000.0,10800.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10800.0,10500.0,10600.0,10100.0,10400.0,12200.0,11200.0,11400.0,11200.0,10900.0,22000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11900.0,11400.0,11800.0,13800.0,18000.0,25000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12200.0,13000.0,12500.0,12700.0,12200.0,14500.0,18000.0,15000.0,14500.0,13600.0,13000.0,15000.0,13700.0,14000.0,13500.0,13700.0,13000.0,14500.0,19000.0,14700.0,14500.0,14000.0,13600.0,14500.0,13200.0,14000.0,15500.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,17500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[11800.0,9400.0,9800.0,9500.0,9600.0,8600.0,8900.0,11400.0,9300.0,9900.0,9700.0,9200.0,9800.0,8900.0,9700.0,9300.0,9500.0,8400.0,8600.0,10600.0,9100.0,9800.0,10300.0,9100.0,9700.0,8800.0,10400.0,9400.0,9600.0,8500.0,8800.0,9900.0,9200.0,9900.0,9600.0,9300.0,10200.0,9100.0,10100.0,9800.0,9900.0,9000.0,9300.0,10500.0,9700.0,10400.0,10200.0,10600.0,10800.0,9900.0,10700.0,11900.0,12200.0,10900.0,10800.0,11800.0,11100.0,11700.0,12300.0,11400.0,12100.0,11000.0,11900.0,11600.0,11800.0,12400.0,13200.0,15800.0,11700.0,13900.0,12800.0,12200.0,22600.0,14800.0,12900.0,14400.0,12100.0,11300.0,11500.0,12700.0,14200.0,24500.0,14900.0,13100.0,14200.0,12600.0,13100.0,12800.0,12900.0,11900.0,13800.0,17900.0,15600.0,14300.0,13400.0,12900.0,13600.0,12500.0,13100.0,12700.0,13200.0,12300.0,14100.0,18400.0,13900.0,13500.0,12800.0,12600.0,13300.0,12200.0,13400.0,17800.0,19600.0,14500.0,13200.0,14400.0,12900.0,12700.0,12300.0,12100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[12850.0,13410.0,13920.0,12780.0,12150.0,11340.0,10980.0,11620.0,12540.0,13670.0,13210.0,11840.0,13120.0,13580.0,14210.0,13090.0,12640.0,11850.0,11430.0,12050.0,13180.0,14520.0,13900.0,12270.0,13860.0,14190.0,15340.0,13970.0,13450.0,12380.0,12110.0,12890.0,14020.0,15230.0,14680.0,12950.0,14410.0,14630.0,15720.0,14380.0,13910.0,12760.0,12450.0,13390.0,14780.0,15890.0,15210.0,13540.0,14920.0,14780.0,16450.0,18230.0,17890.0,15410.0,14620.0,14890.0,15630.0,16740.0,16120.0,14580.0,15810.0,15640.0,16920.0,15480.0,14870.0,13950.0,13620.0,14310.0,15590.0,18640.0,17210.0,15430.0,23850.0,21420.0,18930.0,18120.0,16750.0,15640.0,15110.0,16380.0,22450.0,26780.0,21340.0,17820.0,18940.0,18210.0,19650.0,18130.0,17560.0,16840.0,21920.0,25870.0,22150.0,20430.0,19180.0,17290.0,18760.0,18450.0,19280.0,17940.0,17320.0,16250.0,18120.0,17640.0,17950.0,18830.0,18190.0,16420.0,17850.0,17540.0,18620.0,17210.0,16830.0,15940.0,15420.0,16180.0,17350.0,18240.0,17690.0,16050.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[6200.0,6300.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,5700.0,6100.0,6200.0,5300.0,5900.0,6000.0,6200.0,5900.0,5700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,5400.0,5800.0,5900.0,5000.0,5600.0,5700.0,5900.0,5600.0,5400.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5200.0,5500.0,5600.0,4800.0,5300.0,5300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5100.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4900.0,5200.0,5300.0,4600.0,5100.0,5000.0,5300.0,5800.0,5400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4500.0,4800.0,5000.0,5000.0,4400.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,4400.0,4700.0,4900.0,4300.0,9500.0,6500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,6000.0,9000.0,6000.0,5000.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,5100.0,4600.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5000.0,5000.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,5800.0,6000.0,6500.0,11000.0,12000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6400.0,5800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,5500.0,5400.0,5800.0,5900.0,5700.0,6200.0,5900.0,6300.0,6000.0,6200.0,5800.0,5900.0,6100.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6900.0,6700.0,6900.0,6500.0,6700.0,6800.0,6700.0,7100.0,7200.0,7000.0,7600.0,7100.0,7500.0,7300.0,7500.0,7100.0,7300.0,7500.0,7400.0,7800.0,7900.0,7800.0,8300.0,7900.0,8500.0,9500.0,9600.0,9000.0,8800.0,8900.0,8600.0,8900.0,9000.0,8900.0,9300.0,8700.0,9100.0,8800.0,8900.0,8500.0,8600.0,8800.0,8600.0,9200.0,9000.0,8900.0,12500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,8600.0,8700.0,8900.0,9600.0,11500.0,9500.0,9300.0,9600.0,9000.0,9400.0,9100.0,9300.0,8900.0,9500.0,10200.0,9600.0,9800.0,9600.0,9500.0,10000.0,9600.0,9900.0,9700.0,9900.0,9600.0,9900.0,10200.0,10000.0,10400.0,10300.0,10500.0,11500.0,11200.0,12000.0,15500.0,19000.0,14500.0,13000.0,12800.0,12200.0,12300.0,12000.0,11800.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[21000.0,9500.0,7800.0,7600.0,7400.0,6800.0,6300.0,6200.0,7900.0,8200.0,7300.0,7100.0,7500.0,7300.0,8000.0,8100.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,7800.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7700.0,7900.0,26000.0,12000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7800.0,8100.0,8400.0,8600.0,8300.0,8100.0,8400.0,8300.0,8600.0,8500.0,8400.0,8200.0,8500.0,10200.0,9000.0,8800.0,9600.0,9000.0,9200.0,9300.0,11000.0,10500.0,9800.0,9200.0,9400.0,9500.0,9700.0,10000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9600.0,9500.0,9700.0,9600.0,9400.0,10500.0,9800.0,9900.0,10000.0,10200.0,12500.0,10800.0,58000.0,21000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11200.0,11000.0,62000.0,34000.0,15000.0,13500.0,16500.0,13500.0,12500.0,14000.0,12500.0,12500.0,18000.0,15500.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,16500.0,14000.0,13800.0,14500.0,14000.0,13800.0,15000.0,14800.0,17500.0,16500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15800.0,16000.0,15500.0,15800.0,21000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17200.0,16500.0,16800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2843.0,1487.0,1712.0,1598.0,1624.0,1491.0,1338.0,1559.0,1695.0,1752.0,1658.0,1413.0,1875.0,1542.0,1798.0,1695.0,1711.0,1602.0,1435.0,1510.0,1788.0,1849.0,1772.0,1518.0,1983.0,1645.0,1895.0,1802.0,1815.0,1705.0,1528.0,1654.0,1898.0,1956.0,1881.0,1602.0,2095.0,1738.0,1998.0,1892.0,1915.0,1798.0,1615.0,1748.0,2005.0,2062.0,1985.0,1695.0,2210.0,1850.0,2525.0,2410.0,2385.0,1895.0,1698.0,1765.0,2115.0,2178.0,2092.0,1798.0,2425.0,2015.0,2318.0,2195.0,2212.0,2085.0,1868.0,1942.0,2315.0,2850.0,2510.0,1975.0,4785.0,3895.0,2985.0,2620.0,2595.0,2470.0,2215.0,2298.0,3685.0,5120.0,3385.0,2480.0,3095.0,2568.0,2945.0,2792.0,2815.0,2658.0,2852.0,2955.0,2948.0,3025.0,2932.0,2510.0,2985.0,2472.0,2838.0,2695.0,2712.0,2560.0,2295.0,2385.0,2842.0,2925.0,2828.0,2422.0,2875.0,2385.0,2738.0,3385.0,3985.0,2675.0,2215.0,2298.0,2735.0,2818.0,2722.0,2335.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4300.0,3900.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3900.0,4100.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,4300.0,4000.0,4000.0,4300.0,4600.0,5000.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4400.0,5000.0,4200.0,4300.0,5200.0,4600.0,5200.0,4700.0,13000.0,6500.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,18000.0,11000.0,8500.0,6500.0,7000.0,6000.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5200.0,5800.0,6500.0,7000.0,5800.0,5600.0,5400.0,6000.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5400.0,5400.0,5600.0,5400.0,6000.0,5800.0,6200.0,7000.0,6600.0,6200.0,5800.0,6400.0,7200.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[460.0,430.0,450.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,360.0,380.0,420.0,460.0,470.0,410.0,470.0,440.0,460.0,430.0,410.0,390.0,370.0,390.0,430.0,470.0,480.0,420.0,490.0,460.0,480.0,450.0,430.0,410.0,390.0,410.0,450.0,490.0,500.0,440.0,520.0,490.0,510.0,480.0,460.0,440.0,420.0,440.0,480.0,520.0,530.0,470.0,560.0,530.0,550.0,520.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,480.0,520.0,560.0,570.0,510.0,600.0,570.0,590.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,500.0,520.0,560.0,600.0,610.0,550.0,2600.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,760.0,720.0,690.0,730.0,2300.0,1600.0,950.0,850.0,900.0,750.0,730.0,700.0,680.0,650.0,620.0,650.0,700.0,750.0,760.0,700.0,800.0,650.0,630.0,610.0,590.0,570.0,550.0,570.0,610.0,650.0,660.0,600.0,620.0,590.0,610.0,580.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,540.0,580.0,620.0,630.0,570.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1385.0,1305.0,1462.0,1398.0,1318.0,1195.0,1088.0,1172.0,1508.0,1745.0,1476.0,1155.0,1422.0,1365.0,1510.0,1449.0,1380.0,1240.0,1129.0,1218.0,1571.0,2630.0,1748.0,1198.0,1483.0,1402.0,1574.0,1499.0,1433.0,1281.0,1170.0,1255.0,1619.0,1705.0,1588.0,1242.0,1526.0,1461.0,1615.0,1558.0,1469.0,1316.0,1221.0,1287.0,1684.0,1762.0,1640.0,1285.0,1588.0,1519.0,1840.0,1875.0,1610.0,2465.0,1768.0,1335.0,1752.0,1835.0,1705.0,1338.0,1690.0,1615.0,1788.0,1730.0,1622.0,1455.0,1350.0,1422.0,1865.0,2345.0,2350.0,1430.0,3405.0,2725.0,2370.0,3105.0,2065.0,1545.0,1428.0,1510.0,2165.0,3525.0,2295.0,1512.0,1895.0,1810.0,2012.0,1930.0,1825.0,1632.0,1510.0,1595.0,3120.0,2955.0,2030.0,1598.0,2795.0,2845.0,2115.0,2045.0,1925.0,1720.0,1590.0,1680.0,2200.0,3235.0,2140.0,1685.0,2095.0,1985.0,2400.0,2135.0,2010.0,1800.0,1665.0,1760.0,2300.0,3140.0,2240.0,1765.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4680.0,3492.0,3816.0,3744.0,3636.0,3456.0,3204.0,3276.0,3708.0,5266.0,3744.0,3348.0,3700.0,3589.0,4706.0,3848.0,3737.0,3552.0,3293.0,3367.0,3811.0,5412.0,3848.0,3441.0,3800.0,3686.0,5035.0,3952.0,3838.0,3648.0,3382.0,3458.0,3914.0,5327.0,3952.0,3534.0,3800.0,3686.0,4028.0,3952.0,3838.0,3648.0,3382.0,3458.0,3914.0,5327.0,3952.0,4241.0,4400.0,4268.0,4664.0,4576.0,4444.0,4224.0,3916.0,4004.0,4532.0,6436.0,4576.0,4092.0,4100.0,3977.0,4346.0,4264.0,4141.0,4920.0,3649.0,3731.0,4223.0,6747.0,5117.0,4194.0,6720.0,4656.0,5088.0,7900.0,4848.0,4608.0,4272.0,4368.0,7169.0,8484.0,4992.0,4464.0,5500.0,5335.0,5830.0,5720.0,5555.0,5280.0,4895.0,5005.0,7081.0,8716.0,5720.0,5115.0,7930.0,5917.0,6466.0,6344.0,6777.0,5856.0,5429.0,5551.0,6283.0,9295.0,6344.0,5673.0,6600.0,6402.0,6996.0,8923.0,6666.0,6336.0,5874.0,6006.0,6798.0,10057.0,6864.0,6138.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[7300.0,6900.0,7200.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6300.0,7250.0,8200.0,7200.0,6900.0,6300.0,10800.0,7000.0,7200.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6200.0,7200.0,7400.0,7200.0,6900.0,6300.0,7300.0,6800.0,10500.0,7800.0,9200.0,6600.0,6200.0,7200.0,7400.0,7200.0,6900.0,6200.0,8600.0,6800.0,8000.0,6900.0,6700.0,6300.0,6000.0,6900.0,10500.0,11800.0,9200.0,7000.0,7200.0,6500.0,9500.0,7900.0,6600.0,6200.0,5900.0,6800.0,7000.0,6800.0,7900.0,6200.0,13500.0,8800.0,6700.0,6600.0,7800.0,6000.0,5700.0,6600.0,6800.0,6700.0,7900.0,6500.0,10200.0,6400.0,6400.0,8100.0,6300.0,5900.0,5600.0,6500.0,9300.0,11300.0,8700.0,11000.0,7700.0,9100.0,6300.0,6300.0,6000.0,5700.0,7300.0,6300.0,6400.0,6300.0,9300.0,7900.0,8700.0,7500.0,6300.0,6300.0,6000.0,5600.0,5300.0,6100.0,6300.0,6200.0,5900.0,7300.0,8600.0,6700.0,5900.0,5900.0,5700.0,5400.0,10200.0,7000.0,8200.0,6400.0,5800.0,5500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[105.0,110.0,112.0,108.0,106.0,98.0,92.0,95.0,108.0,115.0,112.0,100.0,115.0,120.0,124.0,118.0,120.0,105.0,98.0,100.0,118.0,128.0,125.0,108.0,122.0,128.0,132.0,130.0,128.0,112.0,105.0,108.0,126.0,138.0,134.0,115.0,132.0,138.0,142.0,140.0,136.0,120.0,112.0,115.0,136.0,148.0,144.0,125.0,142.0,146.0,150.0,158.0,152.0,138.0,125.0,122.0,145.0,156.0,152.0,132.0,150.0,156.0,162.0,160.0,158.0,140.0,130.0,128.0,152.0,165.0,160.0,140.0,210.0,175.0,170.0,165.0,160.0,145.0,135.0,138.0,225.0,260.0,190.0,160.0,170.0,172.0,170.0,165.0,162.0,145.0,135.0,135.0,160.0,170.0,165.0,145.0,160.0,165.0,162.0,160.0,156.0,140.0,130.0,130.0,152.0,165.0,160.0,140.0,155.0,160.0,158.0,155.0,150.0,135.0,125.0,126.0,148.0,160.0,155.0,135.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[21.0,31.0,31.0,28.0,31.0,25.0,26.0,33.0,37.0,29.0,24.0,20.0,29.0,39.0,36.0,33.0,36.0,29.0,31.0,39.0,44.0,35.0,28.0,24.0,30.0,38.0,44.0,40.0,44.0,35.0,37.0,54.0,53.0,42.0,34.0,29.0,35.0,45.0,52.0,56.0,52.0,41.0,44.0,55.0,62.0,49.0,40.0,34.0,44.0,55.0,65.0,75.0,89.0,71.0,54.0,68.0,77.0,61.0,50.0,42.0,49.0,62.0,72.0,65.0,72.0,57.0,60.0,77.0,86.0,68.0,56.0,47.0,152.0,121.0,99.0,101.0,99.0,79.0,84.0,106.0,190.0,114.0,77.0,65.0,68.0,92.0,90.0,82.0,90.0,72.0,76.0,97.0,108.0,86.0,71.0,59.0,55.0,67.0,77.0,70.0,77.0,62.0,65.0,83.0,92.0,74.0,60.0,50.0,46.0,59.0,68.0,62.0,68.0,55.0,58.0,73.0,82.0,65.0,53.0,45.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[230.0,205.0,220.0,210.0,225.0,230.0,195.0,210.0,215.0,240.0,225.0,245.0,250.0,220.0,240.0,230.0,240.0,245.0,215.0,230.0,235.0,270.0,250.0,275.0,285.0,250.0,260.0,255.0,270.0,280.0,245.0,265.0,270.0,300.0,280.0,310.0,320.0,290.0,305.0,300.0,315.0,330.0,285.0,300.0,310.0,350.0,330.0,360.0,380.0,350.0,365.0,360.0,370.0,390.0,340.0,355.0,370.0,400.0,380.0,410.0,420.0,390.0,400.0,395.0,410.0,430.0,370.0,390.0,410.0,450.0,430.0,470.0,550.0,470.0,460.0,700.0,600.0,500.0,480.0,520.0,850.0,1100.0,700.0,600.0,620.0,550.0,530.0,510.0,540.0,570.0,500.0,520.0,560.0,650.0,600.0,620.0,650.0,600.0,580.0,570.0,610.0,650.0,570.0,590.0,620.0,700.0,650.0,680.0,700.0,650.0,630.0,620.0,660.0,690.0,610.0,630.0,670.0,740.0,700.0,720.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[170.0,160.0,175.0,165.0,160.0,150.0,140.0,130.0,160.0,165.0,170.0,150.0,160.0,150.0,165.0,155.0,150.0,140.0,130.0,125.0,150.0,155.0,160.0,140.0,150.0,145.0,160.0,150.0,145.0,135.0,125.0,120.0,145.0,150.0,155.0,140.0,145.0,140.0,155.0,145.0,140.0,130.0,120.0,115.0,140.0,145.0,150.0,135.0,150.0,145.0,165.0,160.0,170.0,160.0,150.0,145.0,165.0,160.0,155.0,145.0,150.0,140.0,155.0,150.0,145.0,135.0,125.0,120.0,140.0,145.0,150.0,135.0,200.0,190.0,180.0,170.0,160.0,150.0,150.0,140.0,230.0,200.0,180.0,160.0,160.0,150.0,160.0,150.0,145.0,135.0,170.0,180.0,165.0,150.0,140.0,130.0,135.0,130.0,140.0,135.0,130.0,120.0,115.0,110.0,125.0,130.0,125.0,115.0,120.0,115.0,125.0,120.0,115.0,110.0,105.0,100.0,115.0,120.0,115.0,100.0]}},{"title":"Texas Chainsaw 3D","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Texas Chainsaw 3D\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[39666,32328,37517,32589,41470,34579,34287,31693,26074,54301,26158,34893,36340,32920,30856,33431,32795,36507,36849,36528,37729,76485,30261,24979,27860,23006,29356,26954,19091,28662,27213,26873,23138,67624,22943,16573,16728,17250,15491,29287,35789,22927,19425,20899,22318,51480,26225,18080,18825,20577,23421,33523,28875,21794,28977,28702,26144,61847,33423,19873,19883,20048,22034,19342,21566,19896,28617,26937,20788,33178,17826,21358,23710,110920,56782,19403,16991,16025,18766,15364,17391,30392,18455,14009,19527,14395,21930,19911,24262,21061,20658,40767,44085,46061,32860,21464,21990,15624,15932,14759,14407,12858,14481,15342,24020,32927,17587,15608,17191,13629,17595,15385,13807,16071,13456,17831,19788,48677,22092,12091],"flat_reference_value":16930.203935451318,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[22000.0,19000.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22000.0,25000.0,45000.0,23500.0,20000.0,20500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,19000.0,20500.0,22000.0,29000.0,52000.0,29000.0,22000.0,21000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22000.0,25000.0,47000.0,24000.0,20500.0,20000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,19000.0,20500.0,21500.0,24500.0,46000.0,23500.0,20000.0,19500.0,17500.0,20500.0,21000.0,19500.0,19000.0,21000.0,22500.0,26000.0,48000.0,24500.0,20500.0,20000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,19500.0,21000.0,23000.0,26500.0,49000.0,26000.0,22000.0,26000.0,75000.0,51000.0,30000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23500.0,24000.0,28000.0,51000.0,26000.0,22000.0,21500.0,18500.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,19000.0,20500.0,25000.0,27000.0,48000.0,24500.0,20500.0,20000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,18500.0,20000.0,21500.0,25000.0,46000.0,23500.0,19500.0,19000.0,17000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,18000.0,19500.0,21000.0,24500.0,45000.0,23000.0,19000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[31800.0,28400.0,29600.0,27900.0,28500.0,29200.0,32400.0,33100.0,35800.0,58400.0,31200.0,28900.0,29500.0,25800.0,27100.0,26400.0,27300.0,27800.0,30900.0,39200.0,46500.0,84200.0,36800.0,28400.0,27900.0,24100.0,25600.0,24800.0,25200.0,25900.0,28700.0,29400.0,32600.0,54300.0,27500.0,25100.0,25800.0,22400.0,23900.0,22700.0,23500.0,24200.0,27600.0,28900.0,31400.0,51200.0,26300.0,24600.0,25400.0,23100.0,28900.0,32600.0,31200.0,28400.0,29800.0,31500.0,35200.0,59600.0,28700.0,26100.0,26800.0,23500.0,24900.0,24200.0,25600.0,26100.0,29400.0,30800.0,33900.0,56800.0,27900.0,32400.0,36200.0,154800.0,68400.0,33500.0,28900.0,27400.0,29600.0,30500.0,34800.0,58900.0,28200.0,25400.0,25900.0,22300.0,23800.0,22900.0,24100.0,24700.0,27500.0,39400.0,36800.0,55700.0,26400.0,23200.0,23800.0,20900.0,21800.0,20600.0,21400.0,22100.0,25300.0,27800.0,31600.0,53400.0,24500.0,21200.0,21600.0,19400.0,22800.0,20500.0,19800.0,21300.0,23900.0,25100.0,28700.0,47600.0,22900.0,19700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[32000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,52000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,38000.0,58000.0,28000.0,23000.0,24000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,25000.0,44000.0,22000.0,20000.0,22000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,41000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,22000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,46000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,43000.0,22000.0,24000.0,26000.0,142000.0,54000.0,31000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,52000.0,26000.0,22000.0,23000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,28000.0,29000.0,45000.0,23000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,38000.0,20000.0,18000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,22000.0,36000.0,18000.0,17000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[28000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,34000.0,23000.0,21000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,30000.0,42000.0,24000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,27000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,24000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,17000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,23000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,17000.0,22000.0,15000.0,15000.0,20000.0,62000.0,30000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,21000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,15000.0,13000.0,18000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,16000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,15000.0,10000.0,9000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[48000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,66000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,52000.0,62000.0,85000.0,50000.0,46000.0,44000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,52000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,45000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,32000.0,38000.0,36000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,44000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,45000.0,32000.0,34000.0,42000.0,210000.0,75000.0,40000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,45000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,38000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,34000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,31000.0,22000.0,21000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,4200.0,8500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,7500.0,5800.0,11000.0,6500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,4300.0,8000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,4100.0,7500.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4800.0,9500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,8500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,12000.0,7500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4700.0,9000.0,4400.0,4200.0,5200.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,4300.0,8000.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,4000.0,7200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3800.0,6800.0,3700.0,3600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[5012.0,4685.0,4988.0,4921.0,5234.0,5517.0,5813.0,5489.0,6328.0,9974.0,6021.0,4936.0,4689.0,4417.0,4712.0,4653.0,4918.0,5194.0,5496.0,5227.0,8425.0,13842.0,6813.0,4688.0,4315.0,4087.0,4358.0,4294.0,4562.0,4811.0,5024.0,4846.0,5513.0,8718.0,5294.0,4291.0,4048.0,3812.0,4096.0,4017.0,4293.0,4508.0,4714.0,4492.0,5196.0,8215.0,4993.0,4012.0,3894.0,3658.0,4712.0,4897.0,4704.0,4312.0,4518.0,4296.0,4958.0,7913.0,4752.0,3897.0,3612.0,3394.0,3618.0,3557.0,3811.0,4007.0,4193.0,3991.0,4612.0,7318.0,4415.0,3594.0,3412.0,11537.0,6214.0,3418.0,3612.0,3808.0,4005.0,3794.0,4408.0,7017.0,4206.0,3398.0,3248.0,3057.0,3254.0,3209.0,3411.0,3608.0,3796.0,5417.0,4105.0,6612.0,3954.0,3247.0,3058.0,2896.0,3052.0,3011.0,3246.0,3405.0,3558.0,3392.0,3908.0,6214.0,3752.0,3048.0,2897.0,2708.0,2854.0,2849.0,3053.0,3204.0,3352.0,3196.0,3704.0,5857.0,3508.0,2895.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[960.0,760.0,710.0,650.0,650.0,600.0,650.0,860.0,1310.0,2220.0,1160.0,860.0,1000.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,700.0,650.0,850.0,1050.0,1900.0,3200.0,1350.0,950.0,950.0,760.0,700.0,650.0,650.0,600.0,650.0,820.0,1350.0,3000.0,1300.0,900.0,850.0,680.0,630.0,580.0,580.0,540.0,580.0,750.0,1200.0,2400.0,1050.0,800.0,850.0,680.0,700.0,720.0,650.0,600.0,640.0,900.0,1350.0,2700.0,1150.0,850.0,850.0,700.0,650.0,620.0,620.0,580.0,640.0,950.0,1500.0,3000.0,1350.0,1250.0,2400.0,7000.0,2600.0,1100.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,1300.0,1900.0,3500.0,1700.0,1150.0,1150.0,900.0,1150.0,950.0,800.0,750.0,850.0,2200.0,2600.0,3400.0,1700.0,1150.0,950.0,800.0,780.0,750.0,720.0,750.0,850.0,1150.0,1550.0,2900.0,1350.0,950.0,900.0,750.0,720.0,680.0,680.0,700.0,780.0,1050.0,1450.0,2700.0,1250.0,900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2800.0,2400.0,2300.0,2250.0,2400.0,2350.0,2500.0,2500.0,2700.0,4100.0,2900.0,2400.0,3100.0,2600.0,2450.0,2450.0,2550.0,2550.0,2700.0,2750.0,4300.0,5200.0,3300.0,2600.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2450.0,3700.0,2600.0,2250.0,2400.0,2000.0,1950.0,1950.0,2000.0,2000.0,2150.0,2150.0,2250.0,3400.0,2400.0,2050.0,2200.0,1850.0,1750.0,1750.0,1850.0,1850.0,1950.0,1950.0,2050.0,3100.0,2150.0,1900.0,2100.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1750.0,1850.0,1850.0,1950.0,2900.0,2050.0,1800.0,2300.0,8500.0,4500.0,2350.0,2000.0,1950.0,2050.0,2050.0,2150.0,3300.0,2300.0,2000.0,2300.0,1950.0,1850.0,1850.0,1950.0,1950.0,2050.0,6200.0,4300.0,3700.0,2300.0,2000.0,2000.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1650.0,1750.0,1750.0,1850.0,2800.0,1950.0,1700.0,1850.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1650.0,1650.0,1750.0,2600.0,1850.0,1600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7300.0,5700.0,5400.0,5100.0,7500.0,7200.0,6000.0,6200.0,7100.0,11800.0,6600.0,5900.0,6400.0,5250.0,5000.0,4700.0,5100.0,5300.0,5600.0,7200.0,7900.0,15500.0,8800.0,5600.0,8200.0,5900.0,5100.0,4400.0,4700.0,4900.0,5200.0,5400.0,5700.0,9600.0,5700.0,5100.0,5500.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4400.0,4600.0,4800.0,7100.0,6400.0,9800.0,5300.0,4700.0,5300.0,4300.0,5300.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,5000.0,8200.0,4900.0,4500.0,5100.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,6100.0,5700.0,5400.0,5800.0,4800.0,7900.0,4800.0,4300.0,8600.0,19500.0,8600.0,5700.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,5100.0,5400.0,11700.0,6300.0,4800.0,9250.0,5550.0,4550.0,3600.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,8700.0,7350.0,11000.0,6000.0,4300.0,5700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3400.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,6350.0,15150.0,6350.0,4700.0,4300.0,3400.0,5700.0,4400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,7000.0,4000.0,3600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[11000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8200.0,7800.0,8000.0,8300.0,11000.0,32000.0,12000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,8000.0,16000.0,85000.0,20000.0,10000.0,8500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7200.0,7300.0,7000.0,7200.0,7400.0,10500.0,26000.0,11000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7400.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,6800.0,7000.0,7200.0,10000.0,24000.0,10500.0,8000.0,8200.0,7800.0,11000.0,13000.0,12500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9200.0,12500.0,30000.0,12000.0,10000.0,8500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7200.0,7400.0,7000.0,7300.0,8500.0,14000.0,38000.0,15000.0,13000.0,110000.0,480000.0,240000.0,130000.0,75000.0,48000.0,38000.0,33000.0,36000.0,95000.0,42000.0,30000.0,22000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17500.0,22000.0,48000.0,24000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,21000.0,35000.0,160000.0,55000.0,32000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,16500.0,21000.0,42000.0,20000.0,17000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[34800.0,29600.0,31900.0,27700.0,29900.0,27800.0,30400.0,30100.0,26300.0,32700.0,25400.0,26500.0,96000.0,67500.0,39200.0,28400.0,26800.0,24700.0,26900.0,25800.0,23100.0,29000.0,22700.0,23600.0,68500.0,45100.0,30600.0,26300.0,25900.0,23500.0,25300.0,24700.0,22800.0,27900.0,21900.0,22900.0,25400.0,21600.0,23500.0,21000.0,22100.0,20400.0,22000.0,21600.0,19500.0,24100.0,19000.0,20100.0,23500.0,21200.0,22300.0,20600.0,21400.0,19900.0,21300.0,20900.0,18600.0,23000.0,18400.0,19300.0,21800.0,19500.0,21600.0,27800.0,25200.0,26500.0,23700.0,22700.0,20300.0,24800.0,20100.0,21000.0,23500.0,21300.0,34500.0,126000.0,101000.0,67500.0,47500.0,35800.0,29400.0,34000.0,25900.0,25200.0,29500.0,26000.0,41500.0,188000.0,142000.0,92000.0,64000.0,47500.0,36000.0,41500.0,30500.0,27500.0,28500.0,25300.0,27500.0,34000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27100.0,24700.0,29800.0,24200.0,25300.0,27800.0,25700.0,30500.0,38500.0,47500.0,66000.0,325000.0,215000.0,102000.0,66000.0,40500.0,31000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[900.0,780.0,760.0,700.0,680.0,650.0,680.0,660.0,700.0,950.0,760.0,720.0,740.0,650.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,580.0,600.0,620.0,640.0,900.0,780.0,660.0,620.0,560.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,500.0,520.0,520.0,540.0,780.0,600.0,560.0,540.0,500.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,470.0,490.0,700.0,520.0,490.0,480.0,450.0,480.0,500.0,470.0,450.0,450.0,450.0,460.0,640.0,490.0,470.0,460.0,430.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,410.0,420.0,420.0,440.0,600.0,470.0,470.0,520.0,900.0,650.0,480.0,440.0,420.0,420.0,420.0,430.0,580.0,450.0,430.0,420.0,390.0,390.0,380.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,380.0,390.0,540.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,360.0,360.0,350.0,350.0,340.0,350.0,350.0,360.0,500.0,390.0,370.0,370.0,340.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,330.0,340.0,470.0,360.0,340.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[750.0,620.0,560.0,530.0,550.0,610.0,650.0,620.0,980.0,2400.0,1150.0,780.0,720.0,610.0,540.0,510.0,530.0,570.0,620.0,650.0,1300.0,3100.0,1400.0,830.0,560.0,480.0,440.0,420.0,450.0,480.0,510.0,500.0,730.0,1800.0,890.0,610.0,530.0,470.0,440.0,420.0,440.0,470.0,500.0,480.0,650.0,1650.0,860.0,620.0,540.0,500.0,720.0,810.0,760.0,810.0,930.0,870.0,1250.0,3000.0,1850.0,1020.0,860.0,760.0,690.0,660.0,680.0,740.0,800.0,790.0,1080.0,2700.0,1620.0,960.0,930.0,1700.0,1100.0,850.0,900.0,980.0,1080.0,1050.0,1550.0,4200.0,2400.0,1350.0,1200.0,1020.0,960.0,890.0,940.0,1250.0,4300.0,1600.0,1950.0,5200.0,2900.0,1700.0,1500.0,1320.0,1240.0,1300.0,1400.0,1600.0,1750.0,1800.0,2500.0,7600.0,4000.0,2100.0,1600.0,1420.0,1330.0,1270.0,1320.0,1470.0,1620.0,1560.0,2050.0,6400.0,3200.0,1900.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[480.0,455.0,470.0,445.0,460.0,475.0,500.0,490.0,520.0,780.0,570.0,500.0,470.0,460.0,490.0,475.0,500.0,510.0,530.0,515.0,560.0,1050.0,650.0,540.0,510.0,480.0,475.0,460.0,490.0,500.0,510.0,490.0,520.0,760.0,550.0,480.0,450.0,430.0,445.0,420.0,440.0,455.0,470.0,450.0,490.0,720.0,520.0,450.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,455.0,480.0,500.0,510.0,490.0,560.0,850.0,610.0,530.0,500.0,480.0,490.0,475.0,510.0,520.0,540.0,520.0,580.0,900.0,650.0,560.0,750.0,1700.0,1300.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,720.0,680.0,760.0,1100.0,800.0,670.0,650.0,620.0,610.0,590.0,620.0,630.0,650.0,620.0,680.0,1000.0,730.0,620.0,610.0,590.0,600.0,580.0,610.0,620.0,640.0,610.0,670.0,980.0,710.0,610.0,650.0,850.0,900.0,720.0,700.0,690.0,710.0,680.0,750.0,1150.0,820.0,700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[520.0,430.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,480.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,420.0,340.0,320.0,330.0,300.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,270.0,280.0,290.0,380.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,280.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,260.0,270.0,360.0,280.0,270.0,290.0,270.0,290.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,270.0,280.0,290.0,380.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,280.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,260.0,270.0,280.0,380.0,290.0,280.0,290.0,270.0,280.0,270.0,270.0,260.0,270.0,300.0,340.0,800.0,350.0,300.0,300.0,280.0,280.0,270.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,270.0,280.0,400.0,300.0,280.0,290.0,270.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,260.0,270.0,380.0,290.0,270.0,280.0,260.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,240.0,240.0,250.0,260.0,340.0,260.0,250.0]}},{"title":"Oberlin College","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Oberlin College\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[31955,26272,33373,32020,32622,23337,25061,24770,26743,26543,26498,27810,33514,45604,33765,32717,28092,24689,24967,25706,23924,24725,27245,30465,26948,24099,27839,26794,27078,22935,25897,30700,28663,28014,26228,27752,30120,25308,29186,28082,30611,86525,30364,27868,26809,28454,43967,30090,27370,29077,29818,37411,33400,26381,24273,23484,21844,25857,24760,25538,24803,23849,25580,24764,21683,19180,21347,20331,21986,30553,19526,21044,23973,23719,24867,39567,21998,21374,24668,28580,43336,21292,20743,26926,24730,21190,23948,22780,20737,20110,20739,24888,22606,23185,23618,27031,29219,22950,25123,24600,21569,18430,18512,20820,22577,28484,23544,29117,23001,21142,25301,22229,23345,19717,23815,21115,23105,20726,21267,22178],"flat_reference_value":16926.20432844971,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[34000.0,39000.0,47000.0,38000.0,33000.0,28000.0,27000.0,32000.0,39000.0,38000.0,65000.0,42000.0,37000.0,36000.0,39000.0,37000.0,34000.0,29000.0,28000.0,33000.0,40000.0,39000.0,47000.0,34000.0,37000.0,36000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,30000.0,29000.0,34000.0,41000.0,39000.0,36000.0,32000.0,37000.0,36000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,155000.0,65000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,39000.0,34000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,35000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,34000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,31000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,37000.0,34000.0,29000.0,28000.0,33000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,31000.0,35000.0,34000.0,37000.0,42000.0,34000.0,29000.0,28000.0,80000.0,75000.0,41000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,36000.0,33000.0,28000.0,27000.0,32000.0,38000.0,37000.0,34000.0,30000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,39000.0,37000.0,27000.0,26000.0,31000.0,37000.0,36000.0,33000.0,29000.0,33000.0,32000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,31000.0,37000.0,35000.0,32000.0,29000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[37400.0,36200.0,51800.0,41500.0,35600.0,29800.0,30400.0,36900.0,39200.0,36800.0,46500.0,42100.0,36700.0,33400.0,39800.0,38900.0,33800.0,28600.0,29100.0,34800.0,37600.0,35100.0,44900.0,36200.0,35800.0,32100.0,38700.0,37900.0,32900.0,27800.0,28400.0,34200.0,36800.0,34500.0,33900.0,32600.0,34900.0,31800.0,38200.0,37400.0,43800.0,164500.0,57200.0,38400.0,39600.0,36100.0,34700.0,33200.0,34600.0,31900.0,31200.0,29800.0,28400.0,26900.0,27300.0,31500.0,33800.0,32100.0,30900.0,29700.0,31800.0,29400.0,34900.0,34200.0,29600.0,25800.0,26400.0,31200.0,33500.0,30800.0,29900.0,28700.0,30900.0,28500.0,35100.0,61800.0,31400.0,26700.0,27100.0,41600.0,84300.0,34200.0,30600.0,28900.0,30200.0,27600.0,33400.0,32800.0,28500.0,25900.0,25200.0,29800.0,31900.0,29400.0,28300.0,27100.0,28900.0,26800.0,32100.0,31900.0,29700.0,23800.0,24300.0,28900.0,30800.0,28400.0,27600.0,26200.0,27900.0,25700.0,30900.0,30400.0,26800.0,22900.0,23400.0,27800.0,29600.0,27300.0,26400.0,25100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[29000.0,31000.0,52000.0,38000.0,31000.0,25000.0,23000.0,27000.0,33000.0,34000.0,48000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,35000.0,33000.0,28000.0,23000.0,21000.0,26000.0,31000.0,33000.0,44000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,34000.0,33000.0,27000.0,22000.0,21000.0,25000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,33000.0,32000.0,36000.0,215000.0,78000.0,46000.0,45000.0,42000.0,38000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,26000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,32000.0,31000.0,26000.0,22000.0,20000.0,24000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,24000.0,26000.0,27000.0,31000.0,42000.0,28000.0,23000.0,21000.0,38000.0,108000.0,45000.0,34000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,25000.0,21000.0,19000.0,23000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,24000.0,26000.0,28000.0,31000.0,29000.0,24000.0,20000.0,18000.0,22000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,23000.0,25000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,23000.0,19000.0,18000.0,22000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,22000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,29000.0,30000.0,42000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,21000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,19000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,26000.0,58000.0,28000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,18000.0,20000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,17000.0,19000.0,18000.0,20000.0,19000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,14000.0,16000.0,16000.0,20000.0,19000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,12000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,11000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,10000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[38000.0,38500.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,35000.0,37000.0,37500.0,39000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33500.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,72000.0,36000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29500.0,27000.0,28500.0,27500.0,28000.0,28000.0,27500.0,27000.0,26000.0,26500.0,27000.0,27000.0,26500.0,25500.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27500.0,26000.0,24000.0,23500.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25500.0,24000.0,25500.0,24500.0,26500.0,27000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22500.0,25000.0,38000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,23500.0,25000.0,25000.0,23500.0,21500.0,21000.0,22500.0,23500.0,23500.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22500.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,20500.0,20000.0,21500.0,22500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21500.0,20500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9500.0,7600.0,9000.0,11500.0,8500.0,6200.0,5800.0,8200.0,8400.0,8100.0,14500.0,13000.0,10500.0,8200.0,9800.0,12500.0,9200.0,11000.0,6800.0,8600.0,8600.0,8200.0,8800.0,9600.0,10800.0,8400.0,10200.0,12800.0,9400.0,7200.0,6600.0,8800.0,8400.0,8600.0,9000.0,9800.0,11200.0,9000.0,10800.0,13500.0,13500.0,48000.0,9500.0,9200.0,15500.0,9800.0,12500.0,10500.0,11200.0,9200.0,12500.0,14500.0,9800.0,8200.0,7600.0,9000.0,8600.0,8200.0,8600.0,9200.0,11200.0,9000.0,12000.0,12800.0,9600.0,8200.0,7600.0,9000.0,8600.0,8400.0,9000.0,9600.0,11500.0,9200.0,11800.0,17000.0,10200.0,8400.0,7600.0,9000.0,9000.0,8600.0,8800.0,9400.0,10800.0,8600.0,10800.0,12400.0,9200.0,7800.0,7200.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,8600.0,9000.0,10600.0,8600.0,10800.0,14000.0,11000.0,7600.0,7200.0,8600.0,8200.0,8200.0,8600.0,9000.0,10400.0,8400.0,10400.0,12000.0,9000.0,7400.0,7000.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,8400.0,8800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[19750.0,20830.0,21720.0,20610.0,17040.0,12510.0,11780.0,16120.0,20840.0,20630.0,34200.0,28300.0,18720.0,19480.0,20510.0,19420.0,16230.0,11840.0,11120.0,15210.0,19630.0,19410.0,17920.0,12680.0,17540.0,18460.0,19120.0,18490.0,15110.0,11270.0,10330.0,14480.0,18320.0,18510.0,16740.0,11920.0,16420.0,17310.0,18140.0,17180.0,14190.0,285000.0,80200.0,28400.0,17380.0,17210.0,15830.0,11170.0,15460.0,16040.0,16720.0,15980.0,13210.0,14800.0,9180.0,12540.0,16230.0,16020.0,14780.0,10420.0,14240.0,15010.0,15520.0,15030.0,12280.0,9170.0,8380.0,11790.0,15020.0,14870.0,13710.0,9680.0,13810.0,14290.0,45200.0,29300.0,11940.0,8820.0,8060.0,22400.0,21200.0,15080.0,13040.0,38100.0,13140.0,13870.0,14310.0,13890.0,11320.0,8470.0,7730.0,10890.0,13920.0,17100.0,12530.0,9070.0,12710.0,13180.0,13890.0,16200.0,10840.0,8120.0,7410.0,10420.0,13310.0,13140.0,12180.0,8550.0,12180.0,12590.0,13270.0,12580.0,10520.0,7640.0,7220.0,9830.0,12740.0,12570.0,11620.0,8180.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,39000.0,34000.0,28000.0,26500.0,30500.0,34500.0,34500.0,62000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,45000.0,39000.0,33000.0,27000.0,26000.0,29500.0,33500.0,33500.0,60000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37500.0,39500.0,36000.0,31500.0,26000.0,24500.0,28500.0,32000.0,32000.0,32500.0,29500.0,36000.0,36500.0,38500.0,35000.0,36000.0,260000.0,65000.0,40000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,34000.0,35000.0,42000.0,36000.0,28000.0,24000.0,23000.0,27000.0,29500.0,29500.0,28500.0,26500.0,33500.0,34000.0,36000.0,32500.0,28500.0,23500.0,22000.0,25500.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,35000.0,35500.0,55000.0,34000.0,29500.0,24000.0,23000.0,85000.0,42000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,36000.0,36500.0,38500.0,35000.0,30500.0,32000.0,26000.0,27500.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,35500.0,36000.0,38000.0,34000.0,30000.0,24500.0,23500.0,27000.0,30500.0,30500.0,29500.0,27500.0,35000.0,35500.0,37000.0,33500.0,29500.0,24000.0,23000.0,26500.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[18500.0,19200.0,19000.0,18000.0,16500.0,14500.0,13800.0,15200.0,19500.0,20500.0,19000.0,16000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18200.0,17000.0,15500.0,13800.0,13000.0,14500.0,18500.0,19500.0,18000.0,15500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17200.0,16000.0,14800.0,13200.0,12500.0,14000.0,18000.0,19000.0,28000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22500.0,21000.0,20000.0,145000.0,55000.0,35000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,24000.0,20000.0,17000.0,18000.0,15000.0,16000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,16000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,15500.0,14000.0,13000.0,14500.0,18000.0,19000.0,17500.0,15000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,14500.0,13500.0,12500.0,14000.0,17500.0,18500.0,17000.0,14500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,13500.0,12500.0,11500.0,13000.0,16500.0,17500.0,16000.0,13500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15000.0,22000.0,25000.0,17000.0,13000.0,14000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,13500.0,12500.0,11500.0,10500.0,12000.0,15000.0,16000.0,14500.0,12500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[29500.0,23500.0,32000.0,30500.0,25500.0,19500.0,18500.0,25000.0,30000.0,26000.0,34000.0,27000.0,31000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,27000.0,21000.0,19500.0,26000.0,31000.0,27500.0,58000.0,28000.0,28500.0,23000.0,31500.0,30000.0,25000.0,19000.0,18000.0,24000.0,28500.0,39000.0,27500.0,26000.0,30000.0,23500.0,32500.0,31000.0,26500.0,52000.0,20000.0,25000.0,29500.0,25500.0,28000.0,26500.0,32000.0,26000.0,72000.0,48000.0,33000.0,38000.0,22000.0,27000.0,33000.0,29000.0,31000.0,29000.0,33000.0,27000.0,36000.0,34000.0,29000.0,22000.0,21000.0,28000.0,34000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,24500.0,33000.0,31000.0,26000.0,20000.0,19000.0,25500.0,30500.0,26500.0,28500.0,27000.0,28500.0,23000.0,31000.0,29500.0,24500.0,34000.0,21000.0,24000.0,28500.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,27500.0,22500.0,30500.0,43000.0,33000.0,19500.0,18500.0,23500.0,28000.0,24500.0,26500.0,24500.0,32000.0,23000.0,31000.0,30000.0,25000.0,19500.0,18500.0,24000.0,28500.0,25000.0,27000.0,25500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[13400.0,11200.0,14300.0,13800.0,13000.0,9700.0,7900.0,9000.0,10800.0,11700.0,20100.0,17700.0,15400.0,11800.0,15100.0,14500.0,13700.0,10200.0,8400.0,9500.0,11400.0,12300.0,14800.0,13300.0,14900.0,12400.0,15900.0,15300.0,14400.0,10700.0,8800.0,10000.0,12000.0,12900.0,15600.0,14000.0,16100.0,13500.0,17200.0,16500.0,15600.0,11600.0,9500.0,10800.0,12900.0,14000.0,28900.0,22200.0,18100.0,15100.0,22200.0,18500.0,20000.0,14000.0,10700.0,12100.0,14500.0,15700.0,18900.0,17000.0,20800.0,16500.0,21100.0,20300.0,19100.0,14300.0,11700.0,13300.0,15900.0,17200.0,20700.0,18600.0,18300.0,15300.0,21500.0,18800.0,17700.0,13200.0,10800.0,12300.0,14700.0,15900.0,19200.0,17300.0,16800.0,14100.0,17900.0,17300.0,16300.0,12100.0,9900.0,11300.0,13500.0,14600.0,17700.0,15900.0,15600.0,13100.0,16600.0,20000.0,18600.0,11300.0,9200.0,10500.0,12500.0,13600.0,18900.0,14700.0,14400.0,12000.0,17300.0,16300.0,13900.0,10400.0,8500.0,9700.0,11600.0,12500.0,15100.0,13600.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[88000.0,82000.0,85000.0,76000.0,67000.0,60000.0,58000.0,69000.0,79000.0,93000.0,102000.0,101000.0,91000.0,84000.0,88000.0,78000.0,69000.0,62000.0,59000.0,71000.0,81000.0,95000.0,104000.0,103000.0,93000.0,86000.0,90000.0,80000.0,70000.0,63000.0,60000.0,72000.0,83000.0,97000.0,106000.0,105000.0,95000.0,88000.0,92000.0,81000.0,71000.0,64000.0,61000.0,73000.0,84000.0,99000.0,109000.0,108000.0,108000.0,98000.0,131000.0,121000.0,104000.0,82000.0,67000.0,104000.0,107000.0,113000.0,126000.0,122000.0,121000.0,103000.0,111000.0,96000.0,82000.0,69000.0,64000.0,109000.0,112000.0,122000.0,145000.0,154000.0,117000.0,101000.0,114000.0,99000.0,85000.0,71000.0,66000.0,88000.0,99000.0,119000.0,130000.0,132000.0,125000.0,107000.0,135000.0,122000.0,96000.0,78000.0,71000.0,93000.0,105000.0,126000.0,139000.0,142000.0,129000.0,110000.0,129000.0,111000.0,95000.0,79000.0,72000.0,96000.0,107000.0,128000.0,146000.0,149000.0,132000.0,113000.0,134000.0,115000.0,98000.0,81000.0,74000.0,98000.0,110000.0,130000.0,149000.0,152000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3600.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,3500.0,2900.0,2800.0,3300.0,4000.0,4200.0,5200.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,3600.0,3000.0,2900.0,3400.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,3500.0,2900.0,2800.0,3300.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3300.0,3600.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,4300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3000.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3200.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,2900.0,3200.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3200.0,2600.0,2500.0,3000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,2800.0,3100.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3100.0,2500.0,2400.0,2900.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,2700.0,3000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3000.0,2400.0,2300.0,2800.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,2600.0,2900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,2900.0,2300.0,2200.0,2700.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,2500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[21500.0,19500.0,22500.0,25500.0,23000.0,20000.0,17000.0,21000.0,23000.0,19000.0,18500.0,17500.0,26500.0,22500.0,24500.0,26000.0,23500.0,21000.0,19000.0,23000.0,25000.0,20000.0,20500.0,19500.0,20500.0,21500.0,26000.0,27000.0,24500.0,22500.0,20000.0,24000.0,25000.0,21000.0,21500.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,26000.0,28000.0,30000.0,26500.0,21000.0,25000.0,27000.0,22000.0,22500.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,28000.0,31000.0,29000.0,41000.0,33000.0,28000.0,31000.0,25000.0,27000.0,23000.0,27000.0,26500.0,29500.0,31000.0,32500.0,28000.0,24000.0,29000.0,31000.0,27500.0,26000.0,24500.0,26500.0,25500.0,29500.0,33000.0,30500.0,28500.0,24000.0,29000.0,31000.0,26500.0,26500.0,25000.0,28000.0,28500.0,33500.0,37500.0,40000.0,35500.0,27500.0,32500.0,35000.0,30000.0,29500.0,27500.0,36000.0,34500.0,46000.0,82000.0,130000.0,102000.0,56000.0,50000.0,61000.0,46000.0,42000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,40000.0,45000.0,42000.0,37000.0,31000.0,36000.0,39000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[6800.0,6400.0,7100.0,7400.0,7900.0,7200.0,6500.0,7100.0,8500.0,8100.0,9200.0,6900.0,7600.0,7000.0,8200.0,8500.0,8900.0,8200.0,7300.0,7900.0,9700.0,9100.0,8500.0,7200.0,7700.0,7200.0,8300.0,8500.0,9000.0,8200.0,7500.0,8000.0,9700.0,10500.0,15800.0,11200.0,12500.0,11000.0,13200.0,14800.0,18100.0,42500.0,30300.0,26700.0,18600.0,15800.0,20500.0,14200.0,12800.0,11600.0,13500.0,11000.0,10200.0,9700.0,9000.0,9400.0,10900.0,10300.0,9500.0,8200.0,8700.0,8100.0,9400.0,9600.0,10100.0,9200.0,8400.0,9000.0,10800.0,10300.0,9600.0,8400.0,9000.0,8500.0,9700.0,9900.0,10300.0,9500.0,8600.0,9200.0,11100.0,10700.0,16800.0,9700.0,9200.0,8600.0,9900.0,10100.0,10400.0,9500.0,8700.0,9300.0,11200.0,10600.0,9800.0,8500.0,9300.0,8800.0,10200.0,11500.0,13200.0,10800.0,9500.0,10100.0,12400.0,11800.0,10600.0,9000.0,9500.0,8900.0,10100.0,10300.0,10800.0,9900.0,9100.0,9700.0,11600.0,11000.0,10100.0,8800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3520.0,3360.0,3360.0,3200.0,2880.0,2560.0,2400.0,2720.0,3360.0,3520.0,6020.0,3880.0,3800.0,3150.0,3150.0,3000.0,2700.0,2400.0,2250.0,2550.0,3150.0,3300.0,3300.0,2700.0,3080.0,2940.0,2940.0,2800.0,2520.0,2240.0,2100.0,2380.0,2940.0,3080.0,3080.0,2520.0,2860.0,2730.0,2730.0,2600.0,2340.0,2080.0,1950.0,2210.0,2730.0,2860.0,2860.0,2340.0,3080.0,2940.0,3340.0,3100.0,2520.0,2240.0,2100.0,2380.0,2940.0,3080.0,3080.0,2520.0,2750.0,2625.0,2625.0,2500.0,2250.0,2000.0,1875.0,2125.0,2625.0,2750.0,2750.0,2250.0,2640.0,2520.0,2520.0,2400.0,2160.0,1920.0,1800.0,2040.0,2520.0,2640.0,2640.0,2160.0,2860.0,2730.0,3230.0,2600.0,2340.0,2080.0,1950.0,2210.0,2730.0,2860.0,2860.0,2340.0,2750.0,2625.0,2625.0,2500.0,2250.0,2000.0,1875.0,2125.0,2625.0,3350.0,2750.0,2250.0,2530.0,2415.0,2415.0,2300.0,2070.0,1840.0,1725.0,1955.0,2415.0,2930.0,2530.0,2070.0]}},{"title":"Ed Westwick","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Ed Westwick\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[115590,81908,83553,85342,86539,82153,86661,78624,70193,74681,73491,83809,104742,79792,82523,76590,155925,133122,82366,152877,107434,84258,259693,78689,99211,67679,105712,122638,80630,114789,100370,95422,81639,75072,74917,91738,129303,100661,144598,78627,93911,80819,87483,90215,62483,62501,71719,83758,95598,70917,134283,136438,108578,96712,90875,88269,100091,111090,112225,110016,91025,88227,59136,47366,42720,41031,63512,72288,54620,48544,47141,45392,46992,39612,38489,30848,37911,47263,49943,40759,43459,48434,52391,55208,70125,59554,62048,58818,51709,51019,155891,133869,157661,98031,98187,85032,169860,101684,67052,60817,51302,70014,73749,217310,91947,70420,134776,113944,101044,95382,81928,51576,51536,41172,51507,41029,37586,41711,47803,41296],"flat_reference_value":16832.12285913013,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[78000.0,69000.0,72000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,68000.0,71000.0,74000.0,76000.0,69000.0,81000.0,85000.0,76000.0,73000.0,70000.0,68000.0,71000.0,75000.0,78000.0,82000.0,86000.0,1300000.0,300000.0,210000.0,130000.0,115000.0,105000.0,98000.0,95000.0,250000.0,145000.0,105000.0,96000.0,90000.0,98000.0,105000.0,92000.0,88000.0,82000.0,80000.0,79000.0,85000.0,87000.0,90000.0,88000.0,84000.0,95000.0,105000.0,95000.0,115000.0,125000.0,115000.0,105000.0,103000.0,108000.0,104000.0,100000.0,98000.0,110000.0,120000.0,105000.0,102000.0,97000.0,98000.0,110000.0,155000.0,125000.0,112000.0,105000.0,110000.0,120000.0,125000.0,105000.0,100000.0,97000.0,95000.0,92000.0,100000.0,102000.0,98000.0,96000.0,92000.0,103000.0,110000.0,97000.0,95000.0,92000.0,90000.0,88000.0,96000.0,100000.0,98000.0,95000.0,92000.0,105000.0,260000.0,175000.0,120000.0,105000.0,100000.0,103000.0,115000.0,500000.0,260000.0,155000.0,125000.0,125000.0,130000.0,110000.0,210000.0,145000.0,115000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,97000.0,110000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[108000.0,96000.0,94000.0,91000.0,95000.0,98000.0,102000.0,99000.0,92000.0,90000.0,88000.0,95000.0,104000.0,92000.0,94000.0,91000.0,135000.0,122000.0,105000.0,168000.0,125000.0,102000.0,680000.0,195000.0,138000.0,108000.0,112000.0,98000.0,94000.0,91000.0,235000.0,128000.0,98000.0,92000.0,89000.0,95000.0,102000.0,90000.0,142000.0,108000.0,152000.0,115000.0,104000.0,99000.0,91000.0,88000.0,86000.0,94000.0,105000.0,94000.0,118000.0,148000.0,152000.0,134000.0,128000.0,124000.0,112000.0,108000.0,114000.0,142000.0,146000.0,185000.0,128000.0,108000.0,104000.0,106000.0,158000.0,126000.0,98000.0,92000.0,94000.0,98000.0,102000.0,86000.0,85000.0,82000.0,88000.0,118000.0,106000.0,96000.0,88000.0,84000.0,82000.0,88000.0,94000.0,82000.0,85000.0,80000.0,84000.0,86000.0,128000.0,116000.0,96000.0,98000.0,104000.0,96000.0,175000.0,112000.0,98000.0,88000.0,86000.0,84000.0,90000.0,285000.0,165000.0,135000.0,148000.0,96000.0,94000.0,84000.0,168000.0,105000.0,86000.0,82000.0,84000.0,86000.0,80000.0,82000.0,90000.0,145000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[75000.0,70000.0,72000.0,68000.0,65000.0,70000.0,74000.0,73000.0,67000.0,69000.0,71000.0,75000.0,78000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,72000.0,70000.0,74000.0,1450000.0,320000.0,180000.0,120000.0,100000.0,110000.0,90000.0,85000.0,95000.0,160000.0,90000.0,80000.0,75000.0,80000.0,75000.0,70000.0,95000.0,85000.0,75000.0,72000.0,76000.0,74000.0,68000.0,67000.0,65000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,95000.0,130000.0,115000.0,95000.0,85000.0,82000.0,75000.0,70000.0,72000.0,78000.0,85000.0,78000.0,82000.0,80000.0,84000.0,95000.0,165000.0,125000.0,90000.0,80000.0,75000.0,80000.0,75000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,65000.0,72000.0,75000.0,68000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,66000.0,68000.0,65000.0,63000.0,60000.0,58000.0,62000.0,64000.0,60000.0,57000.0,56000.0,58000.0,62000.0,140000.0,85000.0,70000.0,65000.0,62000.0,68000.0,72000.0,310000.0,110000.0,85000.0,70000.0,65000.0,64000.0,61000.0,60000.0,58000.0,57000.0,59000.0,62000.0,60000.0,56000.0,55000.0,57000.0,60000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[82000.0,74000.0,76000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,70000.0,69000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0,70000.0,74000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,63000.0,60000.0,62000.0,61000.0,58000.0,62000.0,620000.0,190000.0,110000.0,80000.0,72000.0,66000.0,60000.0,57000.0,78000.0,60000.0,54000.0,53000.0,55000.0,52000.0,54000.0,49000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,47000.0,44000.0,52000.0,60000.0,56000.0,50000.0,49000.0,47000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,48000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,55000.0,47000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,95000.0,48000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,40000.0,105000.0,45000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,52000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[150000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,125000.0,125000.0,130000.0,130000.0,120000.0,115000.0,110000.0,115000.0,120000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,120000.0,110000.0,105000.0,680000.0,180000.0,150000.0,115000.0,115000.0,105000.0,105000.0,105000.0,160000.0,120000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,115000.0,100000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,105000.0,125000.0,110000.0,130000.0,180000.0,175000.0,150000.0,150000.0,145000.0,130000.0,125000.0,130000.0,140000.0,160000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,125000.0,130000.0,190000.0,160000.0,130000.0,120000.0,120000.0,125000.0,130000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,95000.0,100000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,100000.0,130000.0,125000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,115000.0,125000.0,330000.0,150000.0,130000.0,120000.0,115000.0,120000.0,125000.0,400000.0,170000.0,125000.0,120000.0,120000.0,120000.0,105000.0,160000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,90000.0,95000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[72000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,52000.0,56000.0,58000.0,63000.0,54000.0,55000.0,57000.0,68000.0,62000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,66000.0,70000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,57000.0,620000.0,260000.0,140000.0,95000.0,80000.0,95000.0,70000.0,65000.0,110000.0,70000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,66000.0,60000.0,68000.0,56000.0,53000.0,56000.0,56000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,54000.0,58000.0,64000.0,60000.0,58000.0,85000.0,110000.0,100000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,70000.0,75000.0,80000.0,90000.0,80000.0,75000.0,70000.0,72000.0,75000.0,90000.0,210000.0,130000.0,100000.0,85000.0,88000.0,92000.0,95000.0,75000.0,68000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,62000.0,58000.0,55000.0,54000.0,60000.0,85000.0,70000.0,62000.0,58000.0,55000.0,53000.0,52000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,51000.0,55000.0,62000.0,105000.0,140000.0,80000.0,70000.0,65000.0,68000.0,75000.0,230000.0,140000.0,115000.0,150000.0,100000.0,85000.0,70000.0,100000.0,70000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,65000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,65000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[45000.0,42000.0,40500.0,38000.0,36500.0,34000.0,33500.0,33000.0,37500.0,36000.0,34500.0,31500.0,33000.0,30200.0,32100.0,29800.0,28500.0,27600.0,26800.0,26400.0,28500.0,30500.0,247000.0,118000.0,62000.0,45200.0,39500.0,34800.0,33800.0,31200.0,44500.0,30200.0,28900.0,28300.0,27500.0,25200.0,27000.0,24800.0,26500.0,25200.0,24600.0,23800.0,23100.0,22800.0,24500.0,23900.0,23200.0,21500.0,22500.0,21800.0,26000.0,28400.0,27200.0,24100.0,23500.0,22800.0,24200.0,23600.0,22900.0,21100.0,22800.0,21500.0,23200.0,22600.0,23100.0,27500.0,52300.0,45800.0,31200.0,26800.0,25400.0,23200.0,24500.0,22800.0,24100.0,23200.0,22600.0,21500.0,20900.0,20500.0,22100.0,21600.0,20900.0,19200.0,20500.0,19200.0,20800.0,19800.0,19400.0,18600.0,18100.0,17900.0,19500.0,18900.0,18300.0,17000.0,31200.0,19500.0,20800.0,21200.0,20500.0,19800.0,23500.0,78600.0,48200.0,26800.0,22500.0,19800.0,21500.0,18900.0,20200.0,19500.0,19000.0,18200.0,17800.0,17500.0,18900.0,18300.0,17700.0,16200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[25000.0,21000.0,21500.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17500.0,19000.0,22500.0,23000.0,22000.0,24500.0,23500.0,19500.0,24500.0,21000.0,28000.0,23500.0,19500.0,17500.0,19500.0,18500.0,62000.0,38000.0,26000.0,17000.0,14000.0,12500.0,14500.0,13000.0,14500.0,10500.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,11500.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,13000.0,11500.0,16500.0,13500.0,12500.0,13500.0,18000.0,29000.0,19500.0,13500.0,12500.0,14500.0,17500.0,13500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,14000.0,12500.0,13500.0,12500.0,13500.0,16500.0,13000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,13500.0,12500.0,14000.0,12500.0,12500.0,14000.0,22500.0,19500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,14500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,13500.0,19000.0,17500.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,36000.0,39000.0,520000.0,210000.0,140000.0,85000.0,65000.0,55000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,44000.0,46000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,78000.0,56000.0,45000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,110000.0,55000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,35000.0,280000.0,95000.0,50000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,90000.0,50000.0,45000.0,60000.0,120000.0,60000.0,40000.0,35000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[30800.0,28500.0,30200.0,31800.0,28200.0,25600.0,26400.0,27200.0,29800.0,28900.0,27400.0,26100.0,26400.0,24800.0,27500.0,28300.0,30100.0,26200.0,24100.0,25000.0,27200.0,26300.0,58500.0,39500.0,31500.0,27400.0,25500.0,23800.0,22800.0,21200.0,21800.0,22400.0,24300.0,23400.0,22600.0,21500.0,20900.0,19800.0,23200.0,22600.0,20500.0,18800.0,19200.0,19800.0,21400.0,20600.0,19900.0,18900.0,19200.0,18400.0,21800.0,24600.0,23800.0,20500.0,18800.0,19300.0,20900.0,20100.0,19300.0,18300.0,17900.0,16800.0,17500.0,17400.0,20500.0,22800.0,34200.0,30500.0,25800.0,20500.0,19400.0,18200.0,17700.0,16600.0,16800.0,16000.0,15800.0,17200.0,16800.0,16100.0,17400.0,16700.0,15900.0,15000.0,15200.0,14200.0,14300.0,13700.0,13400.0,12500.0,12800.0,13100.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12400.0,18200.0,15200.0,13800.0,13200.0,13000.0,12600.0,13800.0,24800.0,18600.0,13600.0,13100.0,12600.0,12800.0,12100.0,17200.0,13800.0,12400.0,11400.0,11700.0,11900.0,12600.0,12100.0,11600.0,11000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[6800.0,6500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,6000.0,6800.0,7000.0,6800.0,6200.0,7300.0,7000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7000.0,6700.0,6300.0,6400.0,7400.0,9000.0,385000.0,95000.0,35000.0,20000.0,12000.0,8000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5800.0,5900.0,5800.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,14000.0,95000.0,30000.0,9000.0,6500.0,5200.0,4700.0,6800.0,6600.0,8500.0,9200.0,10500.0,9800.0,8600.0,7600.0,7900.0,7700.0,7000.0,6400.0,7200.0,6800.0,7400.0,7100.0,6700.0,9000.0,48000.0,36000.0,22000.0,26000.0,42000.0,47000.0,6100.0,5800.0,6300.0,6100.0,5800.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,6100.0,6300.0,14000.0,22000.0,12000.0,8000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[16500.0,15800.0,16200.0,17500.0,20800.0,19200.0,24500.0,22300.0,19500.0,18500.0,18000.0,17800.0,21200.0,24000.0,19200.0,18200.0,17600.0,17500.0,17000.0,18800.0,28000.0,24000.0,20200.0,19200.0,18600.0,18000.0,17900.0,17500.0,17400.0,20600.0,21200.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16400.0,16100.0,15600.0,15000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14600.0,14500.0,14100.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13900.0,14000.0,13600.0,12000.0,13400.0,14200.0,13800.0,13400.0,13000.0,12900.0,13400.0,13000.0,13500.0,13600.0,13100.0,13000.0,12900.0,13500.0,14600.0,22500.0,19500.0,17800.0,17000.0,17600.0,16600.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14900.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14400.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12900.0,12500.0,12500.0,12100.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,14600.0,14000.0,13100.0,12600.0,12100.0,11600.0,11500.0,11100.0,11100.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10900.0,10500.0,10500.0,10400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[52000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,160000.0,70000.0,42000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10500.0,12000.0,16000.0,12000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6500.0,6300.0,6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,5800.0,5800.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,5500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,5100.0,5100.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[47000.0,39000.0,41000.0,37000.0,38000.0,43000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,44000.0,41000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0,39000.0,685000.0,168000.0,92000.0,56000.0,88000.0,64000.0,49000.0,42000.0,43000.0,39000.0,37000.0,47000.0,45000.0,40000.0,43000.0,52000.0,142000.0,92000.0,58000.0,48000.0,46000.0,43000.0,41000.0,55000.0,44000.0,38000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,41000.0,58000.0,49000.0,42000.0,38000.0,34000.0,46000.0,43000.0,37000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,74000.0,62000.0,48000.0,43000.0,45000.0,81000.0,46000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,39000.0,36000.0,41000.0,47000.0,95000.0,82000.0,57000.0,45000.0,39000.0,41000.0,37000.0,39000.0,56000.0,46000.0,43000.0,50000.0,54000.0,47000.0,61000.0,49000.0,44000.0,47000.0,62000.0,190000.0,142000.0,96000.0,72000.0,58000.0,52000.0,48000.0,68000.0,56000.0,63000.0,50000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,38000.0,41000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,55000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[7200.0,6900.0,7400.0,6800.0,7600.0,7100.0,8200.0,7800.0,8700.0,8500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8200.0,7900.0,8600.0,8100.0,8400.0,7800.0,8200.0,7900.0,8500.0,9500.0,185000.0,72000.0,36000.0,19000.0,14500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,23000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,9800.0,13500.0,11800.0,11000.0,10200.0,10000.0,10800.0,10300.0,9800.0,10400.0,10800.0,10200.0,9800.0,10500.0,11200.0,11800.0,14500.0,29000.0,25000.0,19000.0,16000.0,16000.0,20000.0,17000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15500.0,21000.0,18000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,13500.0,12000.0,11800.0,11200.0,11500.0,11000.0,12500.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11200.0,11800.0,12000.0,11000.0,10800.0,10500.0,10700.0,10200.0,11000.0,11200.0,10800.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,18500.0,14500.0,12500.0,11800.0,11500.0,12000.0,13500.0,30000.0,19000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,10800.0,11000.0,10500.0,10800.0,10200.0,11000.0,11200.0,10800.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4300.0,7200.0,12500.0,8000.0,6000.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,4300.0,6800.0,5000.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0]}},{"title":"Teri Garr","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Teri Garr\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[67565,63375,52414,52505,41379,52546,43570,128815,155888,80089,54087,68530,58249,54699,70004,59134,52558,87280,65527,51127,61352,62354,54649,59979,69615,58442,49815,59217,52385,64335,66327,55200,47968,69221,67897,63595,60213,62698,88511,61129,63393,72400,70784,66810,47857,58061,55389,94009,55664,45384,98926,70157,78498,64054,66650,69256,70110,73965,70821,82448,89228,85057,86911,65999,62447,78681,59666,57150,56872,121139,83687,69623,65311,54539,61475,80712,75050,66587,63957,57920,57473,69537,57666,83380,77853,69483,81262,64832,55880,60494,68076,64384,65099,95129,87142,92434,89428,58165,78188,80550,71853,115707,83242,61183,70309,1305325,341798,141026,123850,79195,123986,59670,82248,58023,85974,63867,74949,98512,79104,84655],"flat_reference_value":16838.237371633582,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,65000.0,44000.0,26000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18500.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,25000.0,22500.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20500.0,20000.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25500.0,23500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,22500.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,22500.0,29000.0,25500.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25500.0,24500.0,32000.0,28500.0,30000.0,39000.0,28000.0,25500.0,24000.0,25000.0,25500.0,24500.0,25000.0,24000.0,32000.0,28000.0,29500.0,27000.0,25500.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25500.0,25000.0,25500.0,24500.0,33000.0,28500.0,30000.0,27500.0,26000.0,25500.0,24500.0,25500.0,26000.0,25500.0,26000.0,25000.0,43000.0,37000.0,31500.0,28500.0,27000.0,26500.0,25500.0,26500.0,27000.0,26500.0,27000.0,26000.0,1250000.0,390000.0,95000.0,65000.0,52000.0,45000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33000.0,46000.0,38000.0,39000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[68000.0,64000.0,66000.0,62000.0,63000.0,61000.0,65000.0,175000.0,125000.0,98000.0,67000.0,70000.0,69000.0,63000.0,66000.0,62000.0,64000.0,61000.0,66000.0,65000.0,63000.0,92000.0,68000.0,72000.0,70000.0,62000.0,67000.0,63000.0,64000.0,60000.0,65000.0,64000.0,62000.0,90000.0,66000.0,71000.0,69000.0,63000.0,66000.0,62000.0,65000.0,61000.0,66000.0,67000.0,64000.0,94000.0,68000.0,195000.0,74000.0,65000.0,72000.0,82000.0,80000.0,73000.0,75000.0,74000.0,71000.0,105000.0,73000.0,78000.0,135000.0,95000.0,74000.0,70000.0,84000.0,71000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,98000.0,69000.0,75000.0,74000.0,65000.0,69000.0,66000.0,67000.0,64000.0,68000.0,69000.0,66000.0,96000.0,68000.0,74000.0,72000.0,64000.0,68000.0,65000.0,66000.0,63000.0,68000.0,69000.0,66000.0,112000.0,78000.0,76000.0,74000.0,67000.0,71000.0,66000.0,68000.0,65000.0,69000.0,71000.0,68000.0,1850000.0,440000.0,125000.0,78000.0,66000.0,98000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,95000.0,59000.0,62000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[53000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,47000.0,95000.0,115000.0,65000.0,52000.0,58000.0,54000.0,48000.0,51000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,48000.0,50000.0,49000.0,58000.0,51000.0,56000.0,53000.0,47000.0,50000.0,49000.0,52000.0,48000.0,51000.0,50000.0,48000.0,62000.0,53000.0,57000.0,56000.0,49000.0,53000.0,51000.0,54000.0,50000.0,53000.0,52000.0,51000.0,63000.0,56000.0,61000.0,58000.0,53000.0,62000.0,75000.0,71000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,67000.0,58000.0,62000.0,59000.0,52000.0,55000.0,53000.0,61000.0,54000.0,53000.0,52000.0,50000.0,63000.0,57000.0,62000.0,58000.0,51000.0,54000.0,53000.0,52000.0,50000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,66000.0,58000.0,63000.0,60000.0,53000.0,56000.0,54000.0,57000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,68000.0,65000.0,64000.0,61000.0,56000.0,58000.0,55000.0,57000.0,53000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,1920000.0,560000.0,125000.0,92000.0,81000.0,84000.0,77000.0,79000.0,73000.0,75000.0,74000.0,72000.0,88000.0,79000.0,82000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,35000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,28000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,850000.0,620000.0,85000.0,55000.0,42000.0,38000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,40000.0,31000.0,29000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[82000.0,76000.0,78000.0,74000.0,73000.0,72000.0,75000.0,150000.0,115000.0,80000.0,76000.0,82000.0,84000.0,74000.0,76000.0,73000.0,72000.0,70000.0,74000.0,73000.0,70000.0,74000.0,72000.0,78000.0,80000.0,70000.0,72000.0,69000.0,68000.0,67000.0,70000.0,69000.0,66000.0,70000.0,69000.0,75000.0,78000.0,68000.0,70000.0,68000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0,69000.0,66000.0,70000.0,70000.0,115000.0,88000.0,76000.0,85000.0,100000.0,98000.0,88000.0,88000.0,86000.0,80000.0,84000.0,82000.0,88000.0,120000.0,88000.0,86000.0,82000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,79000.0,75000.0,80000.0,78000.0,84000.0,86000.0,76000.0,78000.0,75000.0,75000.0,73000.0,77000.0,76000.0,73000.0,77000.0,76000.0,82000.0,84000.0,75000.0,77000.0,75000.0,76000.0,74000.0,78000.0,77000.0,74000.0,80000.0,78000.0,84000.0,86000.0,78000.0,80000.0,78000.0,100000.0,80000.0,80000.0,80000.0,78000.0,1600000.0,520000.0,170000.0,135000.0,110000.0,110000.0,100000.0,98000.0,95000.0,95000.0,92000.0,88000.0,95000.0,90000.0,95000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,40000.0,17000.0,11500.0,11500.0,13500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9300.0,11500.0,10000.0,17000.0,13000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9700.0,9400.0,9200.0,8900.0,8700.0,8700.0,8800.0,8900.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9600.0,11000.0,10800.0,11500.0,9000.0,8700.0,8700.0,8700.0,8700.0,10500.0,10000.0,9200.0,12500.0,11500.0,10500.0,11500.0,9300.0,8800.0,8600.0,8600.0,8700.0,10500.0,10000.0,8800.0,8300.0,8000.0,9000.0,8500.0,7600.0,15500.0,9500.0,7800.0,7700.0,9500.0,9000.0,7800.0,7300.0,7000.0,6800.0,6700.0,6400.0,6400.0,6400.0,6500.0,6700.0,10500.0,8500.0,7300.0,6900.0,6700.0,6700.0,6700.0,6400.0,6400.0,6500.0,6700.0,6900.0,8800.0,8200.0,7300.0,7000.0,6900.0,6800.0,6800.0,6800.0,6800.0,7000.0,450000.0,150000.0,55000.0,26000.0,16000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8200.0,8500.0,13500.0,9000.0,10000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[12400.0,11200.0,11800.0,10900.0,10400.0,9800.0,9600.0,9900.0,10300.0,11500.0,10800.0,10200.0,11000.0,10200.0,10800.0,9900.0,9700.0,9200.0,9100.0,9300.0,9800.0,11200.0,10100.0,9600.0,10500.0,9600.0,10200.0,9400.0,9200.0,8800.0,8600.0,8900.0,9300.0,10700.0,9700.0,9100.0,10000.0,9100.0,9700.0,8900.0,8700.0,8300.0,8100.0,8400.0,8800.0,10200.0,9200.0,8600.0,10500.0,9800.0,11800.0,12500.0,11500.0,10800.0,10200.0,10400.0,10800.0,12200.0,11200.0,10600.0,10900.0,10200.0,10400.0,9800.0,17500.0,13200.0,10100.0,9600.0,9900.0,11200.0,10400.0,9800.0,10200.0,9200.0,9600.0,8900.0,8600.0,8300.0,8100.0,8400.0,8800.0,9900.0,9100.0,8600.0,9700.0,8700.0,9100.0,8400.0,8200.0,7900.0,7700.0,8000.0,8300.0,9500.0,8700.0,8100.0,9200.0,8300.0,8700.0,8000.0,7800.0,7400.0,7300.0,7600.0,8100.0,842000.0,184500.0,62300.0,31200.0,21800.0,19800.0,17600.0,16900.0,15400.0,14800.0,14500.0,13900.0,24500.0,16200.0,13800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[11200.0,9900.0,9700.0,9300.0,9000.0,8800.0,9500.0,9100.0,9700.0,10600.0,10100.0,11800.0,12200.0,10900.0,10600.0,10200.0,9900.0,9500.0,10300.0,9700.0,10400.0,11500.0,11100.0,12700.0,13100.0,11700.0,11500.0,11000.0,10600.0,10300.0,11100.0,10600.0,11300.0,12800.0,12200.0,13800.0,14200.0,12800.0,12500.0,12100.0,11600.0,11300.0,12200.0,11600.0,12400.0,13900.0,13300.0,15100.0,15300.0,14100.0,17600.0,16900.0,15200.0,14100.0,14800.0,13900.0,14700.0,16400.0,15700.0,17200.0,15100.0,13900.0,13600.0,13100.0,12700.0,12300.0,13000.0,12400.0,13200.0,14800.0,14200.0,15800.0,13900.0,12800.0,12500.0,12100.0,11700.0,11300.0,12000.0,11400.0,12200.0,13600.0,13100.0,15400.0,12800.0,11700.0,11400.0,11000.0,10600.0,10200.0,10900.0,10300.0,11100.0,13200.0,13400.0,12900.0,11800.0,10800.0,10500.0,10100.0,9800.0,9500.0,10100.0,9600.0,10500.0,118000.0,560000.0,78000.0,34000.0,22000.0,27000.0,18000.0,15000.0,13500.0,14200.0,12900.0,13900.0,21500.0,14200.0,16200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[18500.0,17200.0,16800.0,16000.0,15700.0,15200.0,15400.0,15800.0,16300.0,17000.0,17500.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15800.0,15500.0,15700.0,16000.0,16500.0,17200.0,17800.0,19200.0,18400.0,17300.0,16900.0,16300.0,16000.0,15700.0,15900.0,16200.0,16800.0,17500.0,18100.0,19500.0,18800.0,17700.0,17200.0,16700.0,16400.0,16100.0,16300.0,16600.0,17200.0,17900.0,18500.0,20000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18800.0,19000.0,18600.0,18200.0,18400.0,18700.0,19200.0,20000.0,20600.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17700.0,17400.0,17600.0,17900.0,18400.0,19100.0,19700.0,21000.0,19200.0,18200.0,17800.0,17300.0,17000.0,16700.0,16900.0,17200.0,17700.0,18400.0,19000.0,20300.0,19700.0,18700.0,18200.0,17700.0,17400.0,17100.0,17300.0,17600.0,18100.0,18800.0,19400.0,20800.0,20200.0,19200.0,18700.0,18200.0,17900.0,17600.0,17800.0,18100.0,18600.0,700000.0,950000.0,240000.0,150000.0,100000.0,80000.0,65000.0,55000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,110000.0,65000.0,55000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[23200.0,21800.0,23800.0,23100.0,24800.0,25600.0,24100.0,26500.0,41800.0,27300.0,23800.0,21100.0,22000.0,20500.0,21800.0,21000.0,22600.0,23200.0,25600.0,21900.0,21200.0,26100.0,24800.0,19900.0,20800.0,19300.0,20400.0,19800.0,21300.0,21900.0,20600.0,19700.0,19100.0,23800.0,20200.0,18400.0,19600.0,18300.0,19400.0,18900.0,20300.0,20900.0,19800.0,19000.0,18400.0,22900.0,20100.0,18800.0,19100.0,18100.0,22800.0,23900.0,23200.0,22400.0,21200.0,20100.0,19500.0,24200.0,20800.0,18600.0,20300.0,31400.0,20800.0,20100.0,21600.0,22900.0,21100.0,20200.0,19600.0,23900.0,20300.0,18200.0,19200.0,17900.0,19100.0,18500.0,19900.0,20800.0,19700.0,18800.0,18200.0,22600.0,19300.0,19600.0,18300.0,17100.0,18200.0,17600.0,19000.0,19800.0,18800.0,17900.0,17300.0,21500.0,19700.0,17200.0,17600.0,16400.0,17500.0,16900.0,20100.0,19200.0,18100.0,17200.0,16600.0,118000.0,76000.0,34200.0,48500.0,36500.0,33200.0,25400.0,25800.0,26400.0,24800.0,23800.0,23100.0,28200.0,24300.0,21900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[7560.0,7420.0,7490.0,7270.0,7200.0,6980.0,6770.0,6700.0,7340.0,7490.0,7560.0,6620.0,7980.0,7830.0,7900.0,7680.0,7600.0,7370.0,7140.0,7070.0,11630.0,15010.0,11170.0,8040.0,8300.0,8140.0,8220.0,7980.0,7900.0,7660.0,7430.0,7350.0,8060.0,8220.0,8300.0,7270.0,8720.0,8550.0,8630.0,12570.0,9960.0,8050.0,7800.0,7720.0,8470.0,8630.0,8720.0,7640.0,9140.0,8960.0,9050.0,8790.0,8700.0,8440.0,8180.0,8090.0,8870.0,9050.0,9140.0,8000.0,10080.0,9890.0,9980.0,9700.0,20500.0,14200.0,11000.0,9640.0,9790.0,9980.0,10080.0,8830.0,9770.0,9580.0,9670.0,9390.0,9300.0,9020.0,8740.0,8650.0,9490.0,9670.0,14660.0,16260.0,11810.0,9730.0,9360.0,9090.0,9000.0,8730.0,8460.0,8370.0,9180.0,9360.0,9450.0,8280.0,9240.0,9060.0,9150.0,8890.0,8800.0,8540.0,8270.0,8180.0,8980.0,220000.0,165000.0,100000.0,70000.0,53000.0,42000.0,35000.0,30000.0,26000.0,23000.0,21000.0,19000.0,25000.0,18000.0,16000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3500.0,2900.0,3000.0,7500.0,4800.0,3100.0,3500.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,3300.0,3800.0,3600.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3500.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3300.0,5400.0,3800.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3700.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3400.0,4000.0,3900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3800.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3600.0,6000.0,4000.0,3300.0,3400.0,4700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3900.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3700.0,4200.0,4100.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,4000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3800.0,4400.0,4400.0,3600.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,4200.0,3400.0,3400.0,3700.0,4000.0,11000.0,4600.0,3800.0,3900.0,5300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4400.0,3600.0,3600.0,3900.0,4200.0,4800.0,4800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4600.0,3800.0,3700.0,4100.0,66000.0,24000.0,10500.0,6000.0,6200.0,6500.0,6700.0,6400.0,7000.0,5700.0,5700.0,6200.0,16500.0,10500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3800.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,38000.0,12000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1150.0,920.0,2250.0,780.0,750.0,840.0,890.0,820.0,800.0,920.0,1020.0,1180.0,1220.0,1000.0,880.0,800.0,770.0,870.0,950.0,870.0,850.0,980.0,1480.0,1290.0,1270.0,1060.0,900.0,830.0,800.0,890.0,970.0,910.0,890.0,1010.0,1130.0,1390.0,1340.0,1110.0,960.0,880.0,850.0,950.0,1030.0,960.0,930.0,1060.0,1180.0,1460.0,1380.0,1150.0,1020.0,970.0,900.0,970.0,1050.0,970.0,950.0,1090.0,1220.0,1530.0,1430.0,1220.0,1040.0,960.0,920.0,1000.0,1100.0,1020.0,990.0,1140.0,1280.0,1610.0,1530.0,1280.0,1110.0,1030.0,970.0,1080.0,1180.0,1110.0,1070.0,1200.0,1340.0,2360.0,1740.0,1390.0,1220.0,1110.0,1040.0,1140.0,1250.0,1170.0,1110.0,1250.0,1390.0,2090.0,1850.0,125000.0,48000.0,17000.0,8800.0,6300.0,5100.0,4400.0,3900.0,3500.0,3600.0,4100.0,4300.0,6900.0,4500.0,3200.0,2600.0,2200.0,1900.0,1700.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1900.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,3000.0,2700.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,3200.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,3300.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,3400.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3600.0,3200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3600.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3700.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,85000.0,16000.0,7500.0,6200.0,5400.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4700.0,5200.0,4700.0,4900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[25200.0,24960.0,24960.0,24000.0,23280.0,22320.0,21600.0,22080.0,23760.0,24720.0,24720.0,24000.0,23100.0,22880.0,22880.0,22000.0,21340.0,20460.0,19800.0,20240.0,21780.0,22660.0,22660.0,22000.0,21525.0,21320.0,21320.0,20500.0,19885.0,19065.0,18450.0,18860.0,20295.0,21115.0,21115.0,20500.0,21000.0,20800.0,20800.0,20000.0,19400.0,18600.0,18000.0,18400.0,19800.0,20600.0,20600.0,20000.0,21525.0,21320.0,21320.0,21500.0,19885.0,19065.0,18450.0,18860.0,20295.0,21115.0,21115.0,20500.0,18900.0,18720.0,18720.0,18000.0,17460.0,16740.0,16200.0,16560.0,17820.0,18540.0,18540.0,18000.0,17850.0,17680.0,17680.0,17000.0,16490.0,15810.0,15300.0,15640.0,16830.0,17510.0,17510.0,17000.0,180000.0,60000.0,28000.0,20000.0,17460.0,16740.0,16200.0,16560.0,17820.0,18540.0,18540.0,18000.0,16275.0,16120.0,16120.0,15500.0,15035.0,14415.0,13950.0,14260.0,15345.0,15965.0,15965.0,15500.0,14175.0,14040.0,14040.0,13500.0,13095.0,12555.0,12150.0,12420.0,13365.0,13905.0,13905.0,13500.0]}},{"title":"Naan Mahaan Alla (2010 film)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Naan Mahaan Alla (2010 film)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[8527,8138,9447,10309,11087,11408,9905,11923,10430,11578,9130,10021,18470,11965,10502,9878,10585,9937,9914,10787,10278,12673,15485,12826,12639,9518,11152,8469,9113,9914,11225,10991,10114,12610,8548,8189,11791,6989,8744,7061,9292,7152,7427,9288,7821,10202,12935,13024,8532,9877,12707,16755,17317,15059,12182,12824,9659,11264,13356,12052,15053,12100,10685,10328,15036,13222,13273,10030,9358,6951,8314,6262,11102,8786,7032,6485,10234,12108,11611,12828,10793,12796,12915,9518,12753,10960,9439,8605,10711,12039,11988,10882,12521,13067,18560,10736,9808,8401,7513,7209,6844,7466,11738,10336,8729,10177,13156,9135,8761,13705,8487,6751,8495,7652,9242,12633,11274,9410,7191,7088],"flat_reference_value":17005.821278171414,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7400.0,6900.0,7200.0,7600.0,8100.0,7300.0,7500.0,8900.0,7100.0,7700.0,7400.0,8200.0,8500.0,7700.0,8100.0,9000.0,8700.0,7900.0,8300.0,9000.0,8100.0,8600.0,11500.0,10800.0,9400.0,8500.0,8800.0,9100.0,9700.0,9000.0,12200.0,11500.0,9300.0,9500.0,9200.0,10100.0,10300.0,9200.0,9600.0,10100.0,10800.0,9800.0,10200.0,11200.0,9800.0,15000.0,15500.0,12900.0,11500.0,10400.0,12700.0,17000.0,18500.0,15900.0,15000.0,16200.0,13900.0,14100.0,13300.0,14000.0,13800.0,12000.0,12500.0,13400.0,15100.0,13900.0,13000.0,14200.0,12400.0,13000.0,12600.0,13500.0,13200.0,12000.0,12800.0,13100.0,13900.0,12800.0,13300.0,16100.0,19200.0,26000.0,20700.0,16900.0,15400.0,13600.0,14100.0,18000.0,20500.0,15800.0,14600.0,15700.0,13700.0,14300.0,17000.0,15700.0,14400.0,12800.0,13200.0,13700.0,14600.0,13200.0,13500.0,14700.0,16500.0,18100.0,14800.0,14600.0,14000.0,12300.0,12900.0,13300.0,14100.0,13000.0,17100.0,16400.0,13200.0,13900.0,15200.0,14800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[1940.0,1785.0,1890.0,2015.0,2180.0,1960.0,2045.0,2290.0,2110.0,2430.0,2275.0,2360.0,2480.0,2210.0,2590.0,2640.0,2715.0,2530.0,2680.0,2890.0,2610.0,2740.0,3620.0,3180.0,2940.0,2630.0,2785.0,2860.0,3010.0,2790.0,3240.0,3115.0,2830.0,2910.0,2765.0,2895.0,2950.0,2740.0,2820.0,2890.0,3040.0,2875.0,2930.0,3190.0,2860.0,4180.0,4450.0,3420.0,3150.0,2890.0,3340.0,4120.0,4380.0,4090.0,3960.0,5340.0,3820.0,3640.0,3510.0,3480.0,3620.0,3140.0,3280.0,3590.0,3870.0,3610.0,3420.0,3680.0,3210.0,3190.0,3080.0,3160.0,3240.0,2870.0,2980.0,3050.0,3180.0,2940.0,3020.0,3490.0,3380.0,4060.0,3790.0,3250.0,3090.0,2740.0,2860.0,3290.0,3480.0,2890.0,2810.0,3120.0,2760.0,2880.0,3340.0,2910.0,2780.0,2520.0,2640.0,3180.0,2840.0,2590.0,2630.0,2970.0,3140.0,3560.0,2920.0,2740.0,2680.0,2390.0,2510.0,2580.0,2690.0,2470.0,2540.0,3280.0,2610.0,2730.0,2560.0,2690.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[4820.0,4410.0,4290.0,4650.0,5120.0,4780.0,4610.0,5050.0,4380.0,4890.0,4530.0,4720.0,5210.0,4630.0,4480.0,4910.0,5340.0,4860.0,4710.0,5150.0,4830.0,5240.0,6320.0,5480.0,5810.0,5020.0,4940.0,5390.0,5870.0,5230.0,5690.0,5420.0,5110.0,5350.0,5620.0,5780.0,5930.0,5210.0,5460.0,5820.0,6150.0,5740.0,5890.0,6210.0,5630.0,7410.0,7180.0,6520.0,6240.0,5890.0,6730.0,9410.0,10250.0,8780.0,8940.0,11820.0,7950.0,7420.0,7110.0,6840.0,7020.0,6150.0,6380.0,7890.0,8420.0,7210.0,6680.0,6920.0,6140.0,6430.0,6290.0,6510.0,6750.0,5840.0,5920.0,6310.0,6640.0,6120.0,6280.0,6550.0,7480.0,8320.0,7190.0,6450.0,6580.0,5740.0,5610.0,6720.0,6490.0,5830.0,5620.0,6040.0,5470.0,5810.0,6390.0,5920.0,5830.0,5210.0,5140.0,5420.0,5780.0,5260.0,5190.0,5530.0,5080.0,5410.0,5170.0,5320.0,5380.0,4890.0,4750.0,5110.0,5420.0,4980.0,4920.0,5250.0,4760.0,5040.0,4830.0,5010.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[7400.0,6800.0,7100.0,7300.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,7200.0,6700.0,6900.0,6600.0,6800.0,6900.0,6300.0,6500.0,6700.0,6900.0,6400.0,6300.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,6200.0,6300.0,5700.0,5900.0,6000.0,6200.0,5800.0,5700.0,5900.0,5500.0,5700.0,5400.0,5600.0,5700.0,5200.0,5400.0,5500.0,5700.0,5300.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,6100.0,5600.0,5300.0,5300.0,4900.0,5600.0,6800.0,6500.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,4900.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,5100.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4300.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3800.0,4400.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9500.0,8800.0,8700.0,8900.0,9300.0,8800.0,9000.0,9200.0,8700.0,9600.0,8800.0,9000.0,9400.0,8600.0,8800.0,9200.0,9400.0,9000.0,9200.0,9300.0,9000.0,9400.0,11000.0,10200.0,9600.0,8700.0,8800.0,8900.0,9200.0,8900.0,9800.0,9300.0,8700.0,8900.0,8800.0,9000.0,9200.0,8700.0,8600.0,8800.0,9100.0,8900.0,9000.0,9200.0,9000.0,10500.0,11200.0,10200.0,9800.0,9000.0,10500.0,14000.0,14500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10200.0,10000.0,10000.0,10200.0,9200.0,9400.0,10000.0,11500.0,10800.0,10000.0,9600.0,9000.0,8900.0,8700.0,8800.0,9000.0,8200.0,8300.0,8300.0,8500.0,8300.0,8400.0,9200.0,9800.0,10500.0,9000.0,8400.0,8200.0,7400.0,7500.0,7800.0,7800.0,7400.0,7400.0,7300.0,7000.0,7100.0,7400.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6500.0,6500.0,6700.0,6500.0,6300.0,6300.0,6400.0,5900.0,6000.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,6000.0,5800.0,6000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2050.0,1780.0,1920.0,2100.0,2280.0,2020.0,2150.0,2650.0,2140.0,2850.0,2320.0,2440.0,2120.0,1830.0,2380.0,2050.0,2210.0,2090.0,2280.0,2720.0,2140.0,1950.0,1880.0,2030.0,1980.0,1720.0,1860.0,2010.0,2240.0,8800.0,2680.0,2520.0,2130.0,1960.0,1870.0,2080.0,1930.0,1690.0,1810.0,1960.0,2140.0,1960.0,2060.0,2430.0,1920.0,3150.0,2520.0,2240.0,2080.0,1810.0,1920.0,2140.0,2230.0,2010.0,1930.0,2460.0,2040.0,2620.0,2070.0,2180.0,1960.0,1760.0,1860.0,2470.0,2060.0,1910.0,1960.0,2160.0,1910.0,1860.0,1810.0,1950.0,1860.0,1710.0,1900.0,2050.0,2010.0,1860.0,2060.0,2380.0,2760.0,3320.0,2610.0,2310.0,2060.0,1860.0,1760.0,2880.0,2210.0,1920.0,1860.0,2040.0,1900.0,1850.0,1960.0,1950.0,1800.0,1660.0,1710.0,1900.0,1860.0,1710.0,1760.0,2110.0,2160.0,1760.0,1700.0,1850.0,1760.0,1610.0,1660.0,1800.0,1850.0,1660.0,1710.0,1960.0,1810.0,1660.0,1610.0,1760.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1152.0,1028.0,1184.0,1095.0,1120.0,1054.0,1089.0,1113.0,1042.0,1098.0,1071.0,1135.0,1052.0,923.0,1024.0,978.0,1015.0,942.0,987.0,1003.0,956.0,1011.0,978.0,1034.0,987.0,862.0,954.0,912.0,967.0,891.0,923.0,945.0,889.0,934.0,902.0,961.0,1023.0,915.0,1045.0,998.0,1072.0,1018.0,1094.0,1128.0,1185.0,1847.0,1523.0,1156.0,1198.0,1104.0,1487.0,1623.0,1548.0,1325.0,1254.0,1289.0,1312.0,2486.0,1634.0,1389.0,1324.0,1148.0,1287.0,1215.0,1189.0,1152.0,1198.0,1234.0,1211.0,1356.0,1245.0,1298.0,1352.0,1219.0,1387.0,1324.0,1368.0,1412.0,1489.0,1724.0,3248.0,2765.0,1689.0,1492.0,1523.0,1368.0,1549.0,1472.0,1518.0,1456.0,1502.0,1587.0,1623.0,1789.0,1562.0,1528.0,1648.0,1489.0,1592.0,1547.0,1613.0,1568.0,1624.0,1715.0,2634.0,1952.0,1678.0,1621.0,1589.0,1412.0,1567.0,1498.0,1523.0,1469.0,1512.0,1558.0,1495.0,1534.0,1487.0,1521.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4000.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,3900.0,4600.0,4200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4300.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,5600.0,4600.0,4200.0,4100.0,4700.0,4300.0,4500.0,6600.0,4900.0,4500.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,6800.0,5200.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,5600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,5100.0,4700.0,12500.0,7800.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,6000.0,5700.0,5300.0,5400.0,6200.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,5400.0,5400.0,5200.0,5400.0,7000.0,5900.0,5500.0,5600.0,5900.0,5600.0,5700.0,5600.0,5800.0,5800.0,5600.0,5800.0,5900.0,5800.0,5900.0,6000.0,7200.0,13000.0,13500.0,8200.0,6800.0,6600.0,6400.0,6700.0,12800.0,7600.0,6700.0,6500.0,7000.0,6600.0,6700.0,8400.0,6800.0,6700.0,6500.0,6700.0,6800.0,6700.0,6800.0,7600.0,7100.0,8400.0,7300.0,7100.0,7300.0,7200.0,7000.0,7200.0,7300.0,7200.0,7300.0,7500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7500.0,7800.0,8600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[360.0,320.0,340.0,330.0,310.0,300.0,320.0,380.0,330.0,340.0,320.0,350.0,370.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,330.0,320.0,340.0,390.0,340.0,350.0,480.0,420.0,400.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,370.0,360.0,520.0,450.0,400.0,410.0,390.0,420.0,460.0,400.0,410.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,410.0,470.0,430.0,780.0,650.0,500.0,520.0,480.0,550.0,650.0,620.0,580.0,560.0,850.0,600.0,570.0,550.0,580.0,540.0,480.0,500.0,520.0,550.0,500.0,650.0,560.0,520.0,540.0,510.0,530.0,560.0,520.0,540.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,600.0,850.0,1800.0,2200.0,1200.0,800.0,700.0,600.0,620.0,1100.0,850.0,650.0,600.0,700.0,620.0,600.0,750.0,600.0,620.0,520.0,540.0,560.0,520.0,500.0,550.0,600.0,540.0,520.0,500.0,540.0,560.0,480.0,500.0,520.0,480.0,460.0,480.0,540.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1240.0,1180.0,1520.0,1980.0,1480.0,1260.0,1190.0,1240.0,1150.0,1120.0,1180.0,1280.0,1140.0,1080.0,1320.0,1160.0,1100.0,1040.0,1090.0,1020.0,1060.0,1130.0,1680.0,1420.0,1080.0,1020.0,1240.0,1080.0,1010.0,1030.0,1520.0,1280.0,1080.0,1030.0,990.0,1180.0,1020.0,1380.0,1180.0,1030.0,980.0,960.0,990.0,940.0,980.0,1780.0,1560.0,1220.0,1040.0,990.0,1380.0,1480.0,1220.0,1080.0,1030.0,1010.0,990.0,1330.0,1120.0,1090.0,970.0,930.0,1100.0,990.0,940.0,900.0,930.0,910.0,890.0,920.0,900.0,880.0,1240.0,960.0,1080.0,1000.0,950.0,920.0,900.0,930.0,1580.0,2050.0,1420.0,1080.0,980.0,930.0,1060.0,1680.0,1330.0,960.0,940.0,920.0,950.0,1380.0,1480.0,1060.0,1020.0,970.0,1100.0,960.0,920.0,1080.0,1300.0,980.0,1010.0,1850.0,1350.0,1040.0,1080.0,1020.0,1180.0,1010.0,960.0,940.0,930.0,1380.0,1180.0,1020.0,990.0,1010.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[363.0,380.0,402.0,376.0,365.0,339.0,307.0,403.0,378.0,394.0,371.0,333.0,308.0,321.0,342.0,318.0,308.0,288.0,259.0,343.0,319.0,334.0,313.0,283.0,263.0,273.0,292.0,271.0,262.0,246.0,221.0,293.0,272.0,285.0,266.0,242.0,228.0,236.0,254.0,234.0,226.0,213.0,191.0,255.0,235.0,247.0,229.0,210.0,208.0,214.0,232.0,213.0,205.0,195.0,173.0,314.0,213.0,225.0,208.0,192.0,178.0,182.0,199.0,182.0,174.0,167.0,148.0,200.0,182.0,193.0,177.0,164.0,153.0,156.0,171.0,156.0,149.0,144.0,126.0,172.0,155.0,166.0,151.0,142.0,133.0,134.0,149.0,135.0,128.0,125.0,109.0,150.0,134.0,144.0,130.0,123.0,115.0,115.0,129.0,116.0,109.0,108.0,93.0,130.0,115.0,124.0,111.0,107.0,103.0,102.0,116.0,103.0,97.0,97.0,83.0,135.0,102.0,111.0,98.0,96.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[410.0,455.0,385.0,360.0,345.0,390.0,370.0,350.0,365.0,355.0,405.0,435.0,425.0,370.0,345.0,335.0,325.0,360.0,345.0,330.0,350.0,420.0,375.0,350.0,340.0,375.0,335.0,315.0,305.0,340.0,325.0,305.0,300.0,315.0,340.0,385.0,430.0,370.0,335.0,315.0,310.0,345.0,325.0,365.0,325.0,315.0,340.0,355.0,385.0,345.0,320.0,290.0,270.0,330.0,290.0,275.0,270.0,280.0,300.0,330.0,310.0,275.0,255.0,280.0,260.0,295.0,265.0,305.0,265.0,260.0,270.0,285.0,390.0,365.0,345.0,400.0,365.0,350.0,355.0,415.0,430.0,455.0,520.0,470.0,405.0,355.0,330.0,315.0,300.0,335.0,320.0,305.0,320.0,345.0,410.0,375.0,350.0,325.0,305.0,315.0,300.0,335.0,315.0,320.0,325.0,395.0,460.0,410.0,380.0,355.0,365.0,520.0,470.0,510.0,460.0,425.0,400.0,420.0,450.0,435.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[260.0,240.0,250.0,235.0,230.0,225.0,240.0,230.0,220.0,235.0,225.0,230.0,240.0,225.0,220.0,230.0,215.0,210.0,225.0,210.0,205.0,220.0,210.0,215.0,220.0,205.0,200.0,210.0,195.0,190.0,205.0,195.0,190.0,200.0,190.0,195.0,200.0,190.0,185.0,195.0,185.0,180.0,210.0,190.0,180.0,190.0,180.0,185.0,190.0,180.0,200.0,240.0,230.0,210.0,200.0,190.0,185.0,190.0,180.0,185.0,190.0,180.0,175.0,185.0,190.0,180.0,175.0,170.0,175.0,170.0,165.0,170.0,175.0,165.0,160.0,170.0,160.0,155.0,165.0,160.0,175.0,165.0,155.0,160.0,165.0,155.0,150.0,160.0,150.0,145.0,155.0,150.0,170.0,155.0,145.0,150.0,155.0,145.0,140.0,150.0,140.0,135.0,145.0,140.0,135.0,140.0,135.0,140.0,145.0,135.0,130.0,140.0,130.0,125.0,135.0,130.0,125.0,130.0,125.0,130.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[30.0,22.0,24.0,25.0,28.0,21.0,24.0,38.0,23.0,26.0,28.0,30.0,55.0,28.0,26.0,27.0,34.0,23.0,27.0,42.0,24.0,29.0,31.0,33.0,33.0,24.0,27.0,31.0,36.0,26.0,31.0,46.0,28.0,32.0,34.0,36.0,40.0,31.0,34.0,36.0,43.0,31.0,36.0,55.0,34.0,58.0,54.0,50.0,44.0,35.0,38.0,80.0,55.0,35.0,40.0,78.0,45.0,42.0,45.0,52.0,62.0,38.0,40.0,42.0,58.0,37.0,42.0,70.0,39.0,44.0,47.0,54.0,57.0,40.0,44.0,46.0,60.0,40.0,46.0,76.0,42.0,49.0,52.0,65.0,59.0,44.0,68.0,52.0,69.0,44.0,52.0,90.0,48.0,55.0,58.0,66.0,80.0,56.0,62.0,65.0,98.0,57.0,65.0,135.0,60.0,69.0,77.0,90.0,84.0,59.0,65.0,68.0,95.0,60.0,68.0,152.0,63.0,73.0,80.0,95.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[112.0,105.0,131.0,120.0,108.0,115.0,143.0,127.0,119.0,134.0,126.0,150.0,138.0,125.0,141.0,153.0,132.0,146.0,171.0,148.0,139.0,182.0,164.0,155.0,147.0,136.0,158.0,143.0,152.0,161.0,174.0,151.0,140.0,167.0,155.0,172.0,168.0,151.0,176.0,162.0,158.0,171.0,194.0,179.0,188.0,213.0,176.0,165.0,155.0,149.0,182.0,196.0,188.0,172.0,168.0,183.0,171.0,192.0,205.0,184.0,176.0,168.0,195.0,183.0,177.0,204.0,191.0,187.0,179.0,215.0,198.0,186.0,193.0,181.0,204.0,197.0,215.0,226.0,238.0,251.0,289.0,312.0,264.0,229.0,208.0,197.0,221.0,236.0,219.0,231.0,248.0,225.0,273.0,298.0,245.0,219.0,203.0,188.0,210.0,197.0,216.0,224.0,201.0,218.0,231.0,245.0,212.0,199.0,187.0,176.0,204.0,193.0,184.0,199.0,211.0,195.0,182.0,218.0,201.0,190.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[48.0,44.0,46.0,42.0,40.0,43.0,45.0,41.0,39.0,42.0,38.0,40.0,41.0,39.0,37.0,40.0,36.0,38.0,35.0,37.0,34.0,36.0,33.0,35.0,36.0,34.0,33.0,35.0,32.0,34.0,31.0,33.0,30.0,32.0,31.0,33.0,32.0,30.0,31.0,29.0,30.0,28.0,31.0,29.0,28.0,30.0,27.0,29.0,30.0,28.0,33.0,36.0,34.0,32.0,31.0,30.0,28.0,29.0,27.0,28.0,27.0,26.0,28.0,26.0,25.0,27.0,26.0,25.0,24.0,26.0,24.0,25.0,25.0,24.0,26.0,23.0,24.0,25.0,23.0,24.0,22.0,23.0,22.0,24.0,23.0,22.0,24.0,21.0,22.0,23.0,21.0,22.0,20.0,21.0,20.0,22.0,21.0,20.0,22.0,19.0,20.0,21.0,19.0,20.0,18.0,19.0,18.0,20.0,19.0,18.0,20.0,17.0,18.0,19.0,17.0,18.0,16.0,17.0,16.0,18.0]}},{"title":"Oil and Natural Gas Corporation","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Oil and Natural Gas Corporation\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[20526,18673,22776,16975,16832,19631,20352,21136,24939,18990,20700,18536,21071,21440,20967,17297,25498,24790,29128,22417,24009,24782,23933,26179,31324,24718,24916,24123,48743,37876,32806,31027,29832,28401,24653,29905,27990,23430,28032,24313,28319,36516,31157,30662,36789,33427,30849,27599,28965,30129,29850,33695,29757,22337,25855,29300,27444,24233,25316,28476,30651,32612,28597,23424,26831,26388,27296,26319,26573,26124,23134,24340,31917,24980,29159,21819,24171,24267,28573,23268,21049,18227,20695,20435,23504,19452,25583,22217,22911,18548,20895,22689,23120,16582,16675,19451,36112,32539,25247,20453,21237,19701,22676,19205,17846,18586,16350,17418,18412,13039,14862,13054,14989,19149,16429,16396,15190,21080,16870,12979],"flat_reference_value":16934.491374061272,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[27000.0,26000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,43000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,48000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,32000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,38000.0,42000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,37000.0,34000.0,37000.0,40000.0,53000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,34000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,44000.0,41000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[39200.0,37800.0,40500.0,38900.0,37400.0,36800.0,39500.0,41200.0,42600.0,40800.0,39100.0,40300.0,44200.0,42500.0,46800.0,45100.0,43600.0,44000.0,61500.0,48900.0,47200.0,45800.0,46400.0,44900.0,64200.0,49500.0,51200.0,49800.0,48300.0,46700.0,48900.0,50400.0,52100.0,51600.0,47800.0,46900.0,51400.0,48900.0,53600.0,51200.0,49700.0,48500.0,52300.0,53800.0,66400.0,52900.0,50600.0,49200.0,53500.0,51800.0,56400.0,68900.0,58200.0,55700.0,56900.0,57400.0,73500.0,56200.0,52800.0,53400.0,54900.0,51600.0,55300.0,52700.0,86400.0,58300.0,54800.0,53900.0,55100.0,56800.0,51900.0,52400.0,108500.0,62400.0,64800.0,55900.0,54200.0,51800.0,52600.0,53400.0,54100.0,50800.0,49700.0,56300.0,51200.0,47600.0,50400.0,46800.0,48200.0,45900.0,47500.0,49100.0,48400.0,46700.0,44800.0,46200.0,54800.0,52300.0,50900.0,48700.0,49500.0,51200.0,52800.0,49600.0,46400.0,44900.0,42800.0,43100.0,44600.0,41200.0,43800.0,41500.0,40900.0,39800.0,41600.0,42300.0,40700.0,39400.0,38200.0,38900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[52000.0,54000.0,61000.0,58000.0,55000.0,49000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,51000.0,53000.0,59000.0,56000.0,52000.0,50000.0,68000.0,58000.0,51000.0,49000.0,52000.0,53000.0,74000.0,65000.0,63000.0,58000.0,54000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,49000.0,52000.0,51000.0,58000.0,54000.0,50000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,49000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,49000.0,46000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,48000.0,43000.0,40000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,58000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,54000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,48000.0,45000.0,43000.0,47000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,62000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[40000.0,39500.0,40500.0,37500.0,36500.0,36000.0,37000.0,37500.0,37000.0,36500.0,37500.0,35500.0,37500.0,37000.0,37500.0,35000.0,34000.0,33500.0,35500.0,34500.0,34000.0,33500.0,34000.0,33000.0,41000.0,36000.0,35000.0,32500.0,32000.0,31500.0,32500.0,32000.0,31500.0,32500.0,31500.0,30500.0,32000.0,31500.0,31500.0,29500.0,29000.0,28500.0,29500.0,29500.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29500.0,29000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,27500.0,27500.0,27000.0,27000.0,26500.0,26500.0,25500.0,27500.0,27500.0,27000.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0,25500.0,25500.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25500.0,26000.0,27500.0,25000.0,25500.0,25500.0,24500.0,24000.0,23500.0,23500.0,23500.0,22500.0,24000.0,23500.0,23500.0,22000.0,22000.0,21500.0,22000.0,22000.0,21500.0,21500.0,21500.0,20500.0,22500.0,22500.0,22500.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20500.0,19500.0,21000.0,20500.0,20500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,19500.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[82000.0,80000.0,79000.0,76000.0,75000.0,76000.0,80000.0,82000.0,80000.0,76000.0,77000.0,74000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,75000.0,76000.0,78000.0,90000.0,88000.0,84000.0,80000.0,80000.0,77000.0,90000.0,82000.0,80000.0,75000.0,76000.0,77000.0,79000.0,80000.0,78000.0,74000.0,72000.0,69000.0,74000.0,70000.0,72000.0,68000.0,67000.0,68000.0,70000.0,70000.0,69000.0,65000.0,64000.0,61000.0,65000.0,62000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,58000.0,56000.0,56000.0,52000.0,66000.0,56000.0,56000.0,56000.0,55000.0,53000.0,51000.0,49000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,49000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,47000.0,47000.0,46000.0,49000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,48000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,50000.0,50000.0,49000.0,47000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,44000.0,47000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[14200.0,11600.0,12100.0,10900.0,10400.0,10700.0,10100.0,10500.0,9900.0,10600.0,13400.0,9400.0,10500.0,11800.0,11200.0,10600.0,11000.0,11600.0,24500.0,15200.0,12300.0,17300.0,19200.0,12600.0,24300.0,16800.0,14100.0,13400.0,14200.0,14700.0,13600.0,12900.0,16100.0,14600.0,13100.0,11900.0,12100.0,13600.0,13100.0,12400.0,13100.0,12000.0,12500.0,11900.0,17200.0,13200.0,12100.0,11400.0,11600.0,12700.0,32400.0,27600.0,16200.0,13100.0,14600.0,12500.0,13100.0,14100.0,12700.0,11500.0,13100.0,14200.0,13600.0,14700.0,45800.0,21300.0,14200.0,13500.0,14100.0,15200.0,14300.0,13000.0,16400.0,21200.0,34500.0,22600.0,19200.0,19800.0,33800.0,24700.0,20400.0,18300.0,19200.0,16800.0,15700.0,14900.0,15400.0,15100.0,19600.0,15400.0,14900.0,16600.0,15600.0,14900.0,15600.0,13900.0,17200.0,15100.0,14500.0,14100.0,13500.0,15200.0,14700.0,14100.0,14600.0,13600.0,14100.0,13100.0,14100.0,14700.0,14200.0,16200.0,13600.0,24300.0,16300.0,18700.0,14700.0,14100.0,14700.0,13600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9120.0,8420.0,8760.0,8100.0,7950.0,7520.0,7300.0,7680.0,8120.0,8450.0,8790.0,7200.0,8800.0,7900.0,8500.0,8100.0,8300.0,7600.0,7400.0,7800.0,8200.0,8600.0,9200.0,8400.0,18200.0,10200.0,8900.0,8300.0,8100.0,7600.0,7500.0,7900.0,8300.0,8700.0,8300.0,7100.0,8500.0,9200.0,8400.0,8100.0,8800.0,7500.0,7300.0,7700.0,8000.0,8200.0,8400.0,7000.0,8300.0,8100.0,11500.0,13800.0,11200.0,9500.0,8800.0,8400.0,8600.0,8300.0,8500.0,7200.0,8200.0,8000.0,8400.0,8600.0,9000.0,8200.0,7800.0,8100.0,8300.0,8500.0,8800.0,7300.0,8600.0,12400.0,14500.0,11800.0,10500.0,9800.0,9100.0,8700.0,8400.0,8600.0,8800.0,7500.0,8700.0,8200.0,8500.0,8100.0,8000.0,7600.0,7500.0,7900.0,8200.0,8400.0,8600.0,7100.0,8600.0,8300.0,8500.0,8900.0,9200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7900.0,8100.0,8300.0,8500.0,7000.0,8400.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7900.0,7400.0,7300.0,7600.0,7900.0,8100.0,8300.0,6800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[32000.0,35500.0,39000.0,35000.0,37000.0,34500.0,34000.0,32500.0,31500.0,30500.0,31500.0,28500.0,39500.0,45000.0,49000.0,43500.0,46500.0,43000.0,62000.0,52000.0,44500.0,42500.0,43000.0,38500.0,57000.0,51000.0,53000.0,46500.0,48500.0,45500.0,44500.0,43500.0,42500.0,41500.0,42500.0,38500.0,41500.0,47000.0,50500.0,45500.0,48500.0,44500.0,46500.0,43500.0,43000.0,40500.0,41500.0,37500.0,46000.0,52500.0,58500.0,108000.0,86000.0,60500.0,55500.0,52500.0,50500.0,48500.0,50500.0,45500.0,53500.0,62500.0,69000.0,62500.0,64500.0,58500.0,60500.0,58500.0,57500.0,59500.0,65000.0,60500.0,66000.0,73000.0,106000.0,88000.0,78500.0,72500.0,82000.0,70500.0,68000.0,66500.0,68500.0,62500.0,62500.0,70500.0,75000.0,66500.0,71000.0,65500.0,68500.0,64500.0,69500.0,73000.0,63000.0,58500.0,68500.0,76500.0,82500.0,74500.0,79000.0,72500.0,77500.0,74500.0,70500.0,72500.0,74500.0,68500.0,74500.0,82500.0,88500.0,81500.0,92500.0,105500.0,86500.0,79500.0,75000.0,72500.0,70500.0,64500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[21000.0,22000.0,25000.0,22000.0,24000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,19000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,21000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,27000.0,29000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,24000.0,28000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,26000.0,30000.0,31000.0,45000.0,55000.0,42000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,39000.0,35000.0,42000.0,55000.0,70000.0,65000.0,60000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,45000.0,48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,45000.0,47000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,43000.0,39000.0,41000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,30000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[41700.0,35900.0,36700.0,29000.0,51200.0,30200.0,28800.0,40200.0,36200.0,41000.0,29300.0,36300.0,33600.0,36800.0,33600.0,29700.0,58000.0,30000.0,90700.0,60800.0,37800.0,47300.0,33200.0,30100.0,98200.0,41900.0,43300.0,33900.0,60400.0,34200.0,34000.0,47300.0,42300.0,50500.0,34500.0,43700.0,40700.0,44200.0,39500.0,42000.0,71100.0,47400.0,46600.0,52300.0,39400.0,51800.0,38300.0,58900.0,56500.0,53700.0,113100.0,116100.0,124200.0,39300.0,41800.0,62700.0,62200.0,53300.0,41700.0,39700.0,46800.0,53400.0,59100.0,43100.0,85000.0,43100.0,46400.0,61300.0,45700.0,67900.0,44400.0,41900.0,63600.0,98300.0,141800.0,46900.0,116700.0,47400.0,103000.0,72100.0,65400.0,68900.0,51300.0,82400.0,57200.0,75200.0,79300.0,73700.0,101800.0,54800.0,53900.0,76500.0,55900.0,85800.0,71300.0,52800.0,98000.0,81900.0,61600.0,75200.0,114100.0,96400.0,89300.0,83200.0,81400.0,84000.0,60200.0,76800.0,70400.0,94700.0,68300.0,102700.0,126500.0,99500.0,68300.0,92300.0,69500.0,91300.0,68100.0,65600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[16300.0,18100.0,17900.0,16900.0,20600.0,17200.0,16700.0,18000.0,18600.0,19600.0,22000.0,18700.0,20000.0,23100.0,22000.0,20800.0,23400.0,21200.0,35200.0,29500.0,29900.0,28000.0,25300.0,21100.0,50000.0,49700.0,38100.0,25600.0,28700.0,25900.0,25200.0,27100.0,27900.0,29400.0,30400.0,30400.0,29800.0,40100.0,32000.0,29800.0,33100.0,29600.0,31500.0,30600.0,49900.0,40800.0,33500.0,27700.0,32600.0,36100.0,95600.0,74700.0,47200.0,38300.0,32300.0,39300.0,35600.0,37400.0,38500.0,32000.0,37500.0,44800.0,40400.0,45200.0,47400.0,37500.0,36300.0,38800.0,39600.0,41500.0,42600.0,38800.0,41800.0,88000.0,106000.0,89300.0,71600.0,57600.0,64100.0,56500.0,45500.0,47800.0,49200.0,40900.0,56300.0,51500.0,50300.0,46900.0,61400.0,46600.0,44900.0,47900.0,48900.0,51100.0,55600.0,43400.0,49000.0,53700.0,52500.0,48900.0,58900.0,63000.0,70200.0,75400.0,73800.0,69200.0,57800.0,45100.0,52000.0,56500.0,54700.0,98300.0,67900.0,72000.0,56200.0,56000.0,53900.0,54200.0,57700.0,42900.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[62400.0,57900.0,53600.0,56800.0,64100.0,79300.0,54700.0,48900.0,57800.0,51600.0,59700.0,65200.0,83500.0,77800.0,60400.0,57300.0,66900.0,114700.0,69500.0,52800.0,60600.0,55900.0,62400.0,57100.0,62900.0,60300.0,56700.0,59100.0,72600.0,84200.0,61400.0,68900.0,64800.0,57200.0,69100.0,55600.0,88700.0,80300.0,68900.0,71500.0,87200.0,121600.0,76800.0,64100.0,72400.0,65800.0,79600.0,62700.0,71300.0,67900.0,94800.0,126500.0,102700.0,95400.0,85600.0,74200.0,83100.0,89700.0,85300.0,92100.0,103500.0,116200.0,94700.0,87900.0,100800.0,117500.0,90600.0,78400.0,92700.0,110300.0,94800.0,86900.0,114600.0,120300.0,101500.0,97800.0,119400.0,122700.0,100900.0,90400.0,114200.0,139600.0,107300.0,92800.0,98400.0,91600.0,79800.0,77500.0,93200.0,99100.0,79400.0,76800.0,89700.0,105600.0,84300.0,75900.0,94500.0,106700.0,112400.0,99800.0,121300.0,110600.0,86900.0,84500.0,99200.0,93100.0,103700.0,83600.0,90200.0,98700.0,107300.0,91500.0,104800.0,106900.0,81700.0,78900.0,92400.0,86600.0,96100.0,78300.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[24000.0,23000.0,24500.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,22000.0,23000.0,22500.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24500.0,23000.0,23500.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0,24000.0,23500.0,27000.0,26500.0,25500.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23500.0,24000.0,25000.0,25500.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24500.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23500.0,24500.0,25000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25500.0,25500.0,25000.0,25500.0,25000.0,25500.0,25000.0,26500.0,27500.0,27000.0,26000.0,26500.0,26000.0,26500.0,26500.0,27000.0,28500.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29500.0,29000.0,28500.0,28500.0,29000.0,29500.0,29000.0,28000.0,29500.0,30000.0,29500.0,28500.0,29000.0,29500.0,29500.0,30000.0,30500.0,31500.0,31000.0,30500.0,32000.0,32500.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33500.0,33000.0,32000.0,31500.0,31500.0,31000.0,30500.0,32000.0,32000.0,31500.0,30500.0,31000.0,30500.0,30500.0,30000.0,30000.0,30500.0,30000.0,29500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[11200.0,7200.0,6300.0,6900.0,7400.0,6800.0,5900.0,5800.0,6200.0,7100.0,7900.0,5600.0,8100.0,7300.0,7600.0,7400.0,8500.0,9100.0,7700.0,7500.0,8100.0,8900.0,9800.0,6900.0,9100.0,8300.0,8800.0,8500.0,9600.0,9400.0,8600.0,8800.0,9700.0,12200.0,9500.0,8100.0,9800.0,9100.0,9500.0,9200.0,10700.0,9800.0,9000.0,9200.0,10600.0,10200.0,10800.0,8900.0,10100.0,9400.0,34800.0,28600.0,17400.0,15200.0,11900.0,10800.0,12600.0,13200.0,11800.0,10300.0,14200.0,13300.0,14900.0,13800.0,15200.0,14400.0,13700.0,14100.0,15600.0,20300.0,17400.0,14800.0,15700.0,19500.0,31200.0,22800.0,18600.0,17200.0,16300.0,17400.0,18900.0,17000.0,18500.0,15900.0,15100.0,14700.0,16800.0,15200.0,16000.0,15400.0,14800.0,15600.0,17200.0,16400.0,15900.0,14300.0,16100.0,15400.0,16700.0,15900.0,17200.0,18600.0,16800.0,16100.0,17400.0,16700.0,18900.0,15600.0,17000.0,16200.0,17800.0,16800.0,18200.0,17300.0,16400.0,16700.0,18100.0,17500.0,18600.0,15900.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[8200.0,7900.0,8500.0,8100.0,8800.0,9400.0,9100.0,8700.0,8400.0,8900.0,8300.0,8000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8800.0,8600.0,9200.0,10100.0,9700.0,9300.0,8900.0,9600.0,9000.0,8700.0,9200.0,8700.0,9400.0,9100.0,9800.0,10700.0,10300.0,9900.0,9500.0,10200.0,9700.0,9200.0,9600.0,9100.0,9800.0,9400.0,10200.0,10900.0,10400.0,9900.0,9600.0,10100.0,9500.0,9100.0,9700.0,9400.0,12400.0,15100.0,13700.0,11900.0,11100.0,10300.0,9900.0,10500.0,9800.0,9400.0,9900.0,9500.0,10100.0,9800.0,10500.0,11200.0,10800.0,10300.0,10000.0,10600.0,10100.0,9700.0,10300.0,9900.0,12400.0,13900.0,13200.0,12100.0,11600.0,11100.0,10700.0,11400.0,10900.0,10400.0,10800.0,10200.0,10900.0,10500.0,11300.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10700.0,11400.0,10800.0,10300.0,11000.0,10500.0,11200.0,10900.0,11700.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11100.0,11800.0,11200.0,10800.0,11300.0,10800.0,11700.0,11200.0,12100.0,13000.0,12400.0,11900.0,11500.0,12200.0,11600.0,11100.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,4800.0,5200.0,4900.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,6200.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,4300.0,4200.0,5600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2950.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2850.0,2800.0,2850.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0]}},{"title":"Web application","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Web application\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[45402,47517,47363,43685,45207,47469,45522,44589,48118,44538,42793,35227,41097,38610,42267,36338,63828,37954,39202,37893,35582,37975,40051,38357,39971,39616,41970,39059,39230,36911,38270,37264,37353,37400,35002,32696,37208,33624,38130,32822,33338,30502,42307,31394,32501,35613,37383,36302,39805,46769,33771,38070,31303,28050,27596,29406,34518,35561,33162,40678,40768,34893,39005,32962,29928,29926,59317,80933,94934,121068,136021,94133,100143,126103,89476,82081,78560,61469,53721,53489,111775,121333,125490,94395,100240,86537,101483,87138,45455,34855,34023,36132,31637,23114,22755,24076,33708,22756,22749,22275,21581,17856,18786,18321,18806,18206,17258,16900,18769,16040,17027,13962,13852,12685,12626,13788,13689,12789,12052,11110],"flat_reference_value":16894.810292306967,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[39000.0,40000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35000.0,34000.0,37000.0,43000.0,46000.0,44000.0,36000.0,41000.0,41000.0,46000.0,43000.0,42000.0,37000.0,35000.0,39000.0,45000.0,48000.0,46000.0,38000.0,43000.0,42000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,38000.0,37000.0,41000.0,46000.0,49000.0,47000.0,39000.0,42000.0,41000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,37000.0,36000.0,39000.0,45000.0,48000.0,45000.0,38000.0,42000.0,41000.0,50000.0,54000.0,50000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,51000.0,53000.0,50000.0,42000.0,46000.0,44000.0,49000.0,47000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,42000.0,48000.0,50000.0,47000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,45000.0,42000.0,41000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,35000.0,38000.0,36000.0,41000.0,38000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,34000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,32000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,29000.0,28000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,29000.0,31000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,26000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[86400.0,88200.0,94500.0,91800.0,89300.0,81200.0,76500.0,78900.0,90400.0,93600.0,89700.0,75800.0,83100.0,82400.0,90800.0,86200.0,85400.0,77600.0,73100.0,75200.0,85900.0,89400.0,85100.0,71400.0,78500.0,76900.0,84600.0,81700.0,79800.0,71500.0,68400.0,70100.0,79300.0,83500.0,78900.0,66200.0,73400.0,71800.0,78900.0,76100.0,74500.0,66800.0,64900.0,65700.0,74800.0,78200.0,73600.0,62500.0,69800.0,68900.0,71200.0,76400.0,77800.0,71500.0,68200.0,69400.0,76900.0,79100.0,74300.0,64100.0,69200.0,67400.0,73800.0,70500.0,68100.0,61400.0,58300.0,59700.0,66800.0,68900.0,65200.0,55600.0,60800.0,58900.0,64700.0,61200.0,59400.0,53800.0,50900.0,52400.0,58600.0,60500.0,57100.0,48200.0,52600.0,50400.0,54900.0,51300.0,49800.0,44700.0,42100.0,43500.0,48200.0,49900.0,46800.0,39400.0,43200.0,41900.0,44800.0,42600.0,40900.0,36400.0,34800.0,35500.0,39600.0,41200.0,38400.0,32500.0,35600.0,34100.0,37200.0,35400.0,33900.0,30200.0,28700.0,29400.0,32800.0,34100.0,31700.0,26900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[104200.0,118400.0,125600.0,122100.0,106300.0,85400.0,79200.0,86500.0,112300.0,128500.0,126100.0,88400.0,101300.0,114200.0,122400.0,118500.0,102100.0,82300.0,76500.0,83900.0,108400.0,122300.0,121100.0,84200.0,94500.0,105600.0,112400.0,108300.0,94100.0,74500.0,68700.0,75400.0,98200.0,111500.0,110200.0,76400.0,87200.0,98400.0,105100.0,101300.0,87400.0,68200.0,63100.0,70300.0,91200.0,104500.0,102100.0,71300.0,82400.0,92100.0,86300.0,88400.0,79200.0,64100.0,59400.0,66200.0,86400.0,97100.0,95300.0,67200.0,74300.0,84100.0,90200.0,87400.0,75100.0,58300.0,54200.0,60400.0,78100.0,89400.0,87200.0,61300.0,69200.0,78400.0,84300.0,81200.0,70100.0,54200.0,50300.0,56400.0,72300.0,82100.0,80400.0,54100.0,58400.0,66200.0,71100.0,68300.0,58200.0,44100.0,41200.0,46300.0,59400.0,67300.0,65100.0,45200.0,51200.0,58100.0,63400.0,60200.0,52100.0,39300.0,36400.0,41200.0,52400.0,60100.0,58200.0,40300.0,47200.0,54100.0,58400.0,55300.0,48100.0,36200.0,33400.0,37500.0,48200.0,55400.0,53200.0,37100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[39900.0,42840.0,45360.0,43260.0,41160.0,36960.0,35700.0,36960.0,42000.0,44940.0,45360.0,36960.0,36100.0,38760.0,41040.0,39140.0,37240.0,33440.0,32300.0,33440.0,38000.0,40660.0,41040.0,33440.0,32300.0,34680.0,36720.0,35020.0,33320.0,29920.0,28900.0,29920.0,34000.0,36380.0,36720.0,29920.0,28500.0,30600.0,32400.0,30900.0,29400.0,26400.0,25500.0,26400.0,30000.0,32100.0,32400.0,26400.0,26600.0,28560.0,30240.0,30000.0,28500.0,25500.0,24400.0,24800.0,28000.0,29960.0,30240.0,24640.0,23750.0,25500.0,27000.0,25750.0,24500.0,22000.0,21250.0,22000.0,25000.0,26750.0,27000.0,22000.0,20900.0,22440.0,23760.0,22660.0,21560.0,19360.0,18700.0,19360.0,22000.0,23540.0,23760.0,19360.0,18525.0,19890.0,21060.0,20085.0,19110.0,17160.0,16575.0,17160.0,19500.0,20865.0,21060.0,17160.0,16150.0,17340.0,18360.0,17510.0,16660.0,14960.0,14450.0,14960.0,17000.0,18190.0,18360.0,14960.0,14250.0,15300.0,16200.0,15450.0,14700.0,13200.0,12750.0,13200.0,15000.0,16050.0,16200.0,13200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[56000.0,58000.0,60000.0,57000.0,56000.0,51000.0,48000.0,50000.0,55000.0,57000.0,56000.0,48000.0,52000.0,52000.0,55000.0,50000.0,50000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,49000.0,51000.0,50000.0,43000.0,48000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,38000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,35000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,40000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,33000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,34000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,23000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,20000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,18000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,16000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[23100.0,23800.0,23700.0,22500.0,21000.0,18800.0,17500.0,18200.0,24300.0,24700.0,23900.0,17900.0,24100.0,25000.0,24800.0,23700.0,21800.0,19600.0,18300.0,19000.0,25400.0,25900.0,24800.0,18700.0,24700.0,25500.0,25400.0,24200.0,22400.0,20000.0,18700.0,19400.0,25800.0,26500.0,25300.0,19100.0,24000.0,24900.0,25000.0,23700.0,21900.0,19400.0,18500.0,18800.0,25200.0,25800.0,24900.0,18600.0,28000.0,29300.0,34000.0,33000.0,27500.0,24000.0,22500.0,22800.0,29500.0,30000.0,29200.0,22000.0,25300.0,25900.0,26000.0,24700.0,22700.0,20300.0,19100.0,19800.0,26300.0,26900.0,26000.0,19500.0,22000.0,22700.0,22600.0,21500.0,19900.0,17800.0,16900.0,17300.0,23000.0,23400.0,22700.0,17100.0,19100.0,19700.0,19800.0,18900.0,17500.0,15700.0,14900.0,15200.0,20200.0,20600.0,19900.0,15000.0,18900.0,19400.0,19300.0,18500.0,17000.0,15300.0,14500.0,14800.0,19700.0,20100.0,19300.0,14600.0,18300.0,18800.0,18800.0,18000.0,16600.0,14900.0,14100.0,14400.0,19200.0,19500.0,18800.0,14200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[30412.0,29385.0,30721.0,28104.0,26692.0,23418.0,22357.0,23011.0,27833.0,30045.0,28897.0,23562.0,32150.0,31020.0,32280.0,29710.0,28215.0,24890.0,23640.0,24300.0,29350.0,31670.0,30510.0,24820.0,33210.0,32180.0,33490.0,30750.0,29130.0,25720.0,24480.0,25140.0,30380.0,32820.0,31560.0,25790.0,34400.0,33270.0,34580.0,31800.0,30120.0,26550.0,25280.0,26010.0,31420.0,33910.0,32630.0,26610.0,38900.0,38210.0,48520.0,47250.0,39100.0,30680.0,28540.0,29910.0,35680.0,38340.0,37510.0,30120.0,37180.0,36050.0,37320.0,34410.0,32600.0,28760.0,27310.0,28150.0,33980.0,36650.0,35320.0,28790.0,32800.0,32100.0,32850.0,30600.0,28600.0,25600.0,23900.0,25100.0,29700.0,32000.0,31300.0,25400.0,28300.0,27750.0,28800.0,26500.0,24700.0,22100.0,21100.0,21750.0,26200.0,28350.0,27200.0,22000.0,24400.0,23950.0,24850.0,22850.0,21300.0,19050.0,18200.0,18700.0,22650.0,24450.0,23450.0,19000.0,21600.0,21200.0,22000.0,20250.0,18900.0,16900.0,16150.0,16600.0,20100.0,21650.0,20800.0,16850.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[70120.0,72340.0,74810.0,71650.0,68230.0,59870.0,55120.0,58430.0,72110.0,75460.0,72280.0,56540.0,74530.0,77210.0,78940.0,76180.0,71870.0,63940.0,58620.0,61850.0,76540.0,80120.0,76870.0,59980.0,79320.0,82740.0,85120.0,81430.0,77560.0,67980.0,63240.0,66310.0,81960.0,85740.0,82130.0,64280.0,83940.0,87120.0,89430.0,85870.0,81620.0,71540.0,66180.0,69730.0,86340.0,90210.0,86670.0,67830.0,84760.0,88230.0,97840.0,94120.0,88760.0,78940.0,67120.0,70340.0,87460.0,91320.0,87890.0,68540.0,81540.0,84820.0,87130.0,83670.0,79240.0,69870.0,64520.0,67940.0,84120.0,87960.0,84340.0,65980.0,78230.0,81640.0,83910.0,80340.0,76180.0,67240.0,61980.0,65320.0,80760.0,84520.0,81170.0,63480.0,75140.0,81240.0,83460.0,77210.0,72980.0,64370.0,59420.0,62760.0,77540.0,81080.0,77920.0,60840.0,69820.0,72460.0,74820.0,71630.0,67740.0,59980.0,55120.0,58240.0,71870.0,75310.0,72180.0,56620.0,64520.0,67240.0,68970.0,66310.0,62870.0,55240.0,51120.0,53760.0,66520.0,69740.0,66890.0,52340.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[52000.0,52500.0,53500.0,51500.0,49500.0,46500.0,44500.0,45500.0,52000.0,53500.0,52500.0,46500.0,49920.0,50400.0,51360.0,49440.0,47520.0,44640.0,42720.0,43680.0,49920.0,51360.0,50400.0,44640.0,48360.0,48825.0,49755.0,47895.0,46035.0,43245.0,41385.0,42315.0,48360.0,49755.0,48825.0,43245.0,46800.0,47250.0,48150.0,46350.0,44550.0,41850.0,40050.0,40950.0,46800.0,48150.0,47250.0,41850.0,47840.0,48300.0,49220.0,47380.0,45540.0,42780.0,40940.0,41860.0,47840.0,49220.0,48300.0,42780.0,45240.0,45675.0,46545.0,44805.0,43065.0,40455.0,38715.0,39585.0,45240.0,46545.0,45675.0,40455.0,42640.0,43050.0,43870.0,42230.0,40590.0,38130.0,36490.0,37310.0,42640.0,43870.0,43050.0,38130.0,40040.0,40425.0,41195.0,39655.0,38115.0,35805.0,34265.0,35035.0,40040.0,41195.0,40425.0,35805.0,37440.0,37800.0,38520.0,37080.0,35640.0,33480.0,32040.0,32760.0,37440.0,38520.0,37800.0,33480.0,34840.0,35175.0,35845.0,34505.0,33165.0,31155.0,29815.0,30485.0,34840.0,35845.0,35175.0,31155.0],"meta/muse-ember":[29400.0,27800.0,30000.0,27700.0,27400.0,24400.0,23800.0,24800.0,30100.0,31200.0,27900.0,25600.0,28600.0,26100.0,29200.0,27000.0,26700.0,23800.0,23200.0,24200.0,29100.0,30300.0,27500.0,25100.0,27900.0,25700.0,28400.0,26300.0,26000.0,23200.0,22600.0,23900.0,28300.0,29500.0,26800.0,24500.0,27000.0,24700.0,27200.0,25500.0,25200.0,22400.0,21900.0,23200.0,27500.0,28600.0,26000.0,23700.0,26500.0,25000.0,28600.0,26200.0,25700.0,22600.0,21500.0,22700.0,26900.0,28000.0,25400.0,23200.0,25700.0,23400.0,26100.0,24100.0,23800.0,21300.0,20800.0,22000.0,26000.0,27100.0,24600.0,22500.0,24800.0,22600.0,25300.0,23300.0,23100.0,20600.0,20100.0,21200.0,25200.0,26200.0,23800.0,21700.0,23700.0,21900.0,24200.0,22300.0,22400.0,19700.0,19200.0,20300.0,24100.0,25100.0,22800.0,20800.0,22500.0,21200.0,22900.0,21100.0,20800.0,18600.0,18200.0,19200.0,22800.0,23700.0,21600.0,19700.0,21200.0,19300.0,21600.0,19900.0,19600.0,17600.0,17100.0,18100.0,21500.0,22400.0,20300.0,18600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[215000.0,211000.0,217000.0,207000.0,203000.0,193000.0,198000.0,191000.0,213000.0,215000.0,211000.0,178000.0,223000.0,218000.0,225000.0,214000.0,222000.0,199000.0,193000.0,197000.0,220000.0,223000.0,218000.0,184000.0,230000.0,226000.0,232000.0,221000.0,228000.0,206000.0,199000.0,204000.0,228000.0,230000.0,226000.0,191000.0,237000.0,233000.0,240000.0,228000.0,224000.0,212000.0,205000.0,210000.0,235000.0,237000.0,233000.0,197000.0,250000.0,246000.0,312000.0,294000.0,268000.0,236000.0,221000.0,226000.0,247000.0,250000.0,245000.0,213000.0,258000.0,253000.0,261000.0,248000.0,244000.0,231000.0,224000.0,229000.0,256000.0,258000.0,253000.0,231000.0,239000.0,247000.0,242000.0,230000.0,226000.0,214000.0,207000.0,212000.0,237000.0,239000.0,249000.0,198000.0,218000.0,214000.0,220000.0,210000.0,206000.0,196000.0,197000.0,193000.0,216000.0,218000.0,214000.0,181000.0,203000.0,199000.0,204000.0,195000.0,191000.0,181000.0,186000.0,179000.0,201000.0,203000.0,199000.0,168000.0,187000.0,183000.0,189000.0,180000.0,176000.0,167000.0,162000.0,166000.0,185000.0,187000.0,183000.0,155000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[11650.0,10920.0,11020.0,10400.0,9980.0,9460.0,9050.0,9670.0,10610.0,11230.0,10820.0,10090.0,13330.0,12500.0,12610.0,11900.0,11420.0,10820.0,10350.0,11070.0,12140.0,12850.0,12380.0,11540.0,14780.0,13860.0,13990.0,13200.0,12670.0,12010.0,11480.0,12280.0,13460.0,14260.0,13730.0,12800.0,15570.0,14600.0,14730.0,13900.0,13340.0,12650.0,12090.0,12930.0,14180.0,15010.0,14460.0,13480.0,19000.0,18400.0,21900.0,20900.0,19700.0,18100.0,17100.0,17900.0,19700.0,20400.0,19800.0,18500.0,21700.0,20400.0,20600.0,19800.0,19000.0,18000.0,17200.0,18000.0,19800.0,20900.0,20100.0,18800.0,19500.0,18300.0,18400.0,17300.0,16600.0,15700.0,15000.0,15700.0,17200.0,18200.0,17500.0,16300.0,19300.0,18200.0,19000.0,18200.0,17500.0,16600.0,15900.0,16600.0,18100.0,19100.0,18500.0,17300.0,20700.0,19500.0,19800.0,19600.0,18700.0,17800.0,17000.0,17700.0,19200.0,20300.0,19600.0,18300.0,21800.0,20500.0,20900.0,20700.0,19900.0,18900.0,18000.0,18700.0,20400.0,21500.0,20800.0,19400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[36000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,36000.0,39000.0,39000.0,33000.0,37000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,36000.0,39000.0,39000.0,32000.0,36000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,35000.0,38000.0,38000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,34000.0,37000.0,37000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,38000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,34000.0,37000.0,37000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,33000.0,35000.0,35000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33000.0,26000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,29000.0,31000.0,31000.0,24000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,22000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,25000.0,27000.0,27000.0,20000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[11600.0,9800.0,10900.0,9500.0,8900.0,8300.0,6800.0,7600.0,12500.0,10400.0,9100.0,8000.0,10800.0,9400.0,10100.0,9300.0,10400.0,9600.0,7000.0,7300.0,11600.0,10200.0,8900.0,7600.0,10100.0,9100.0,9700.0,8800.0,8300.0,7700.0,6300.0,6800.0,11200.0,9500.0,8500.0,7300.0,9700.0,8600.0,9200.0,8400.0,8000.0,7400.0,6100.0,6600.0,10500.0,9100.0,8100.0,7000.0,9800.0,8900.0,10500.0,12500.0,10600.0,9100.0,6400.0,6800.0,10800.0,9300.0,8300.0,7200.0,8900.0,8100.0,8600.0,7800.0,7400.0,6900.0,5700.0,6100.0,9600.0,8500.0,7600.0,6400.0,8700.0,8000.0,8400.0,7600.0,7300.0,8000.0,5600.0,6000.0,9700.0,8400.0,7500.0,6400.0,9500.0,9100.0,12800.0,9900.0,8900.0,7600.0,6000.0,6500.0,10300.0,9000.0,8100.0,6900.0,10000.0,9000.0,9600.0,8700.0,8300.0,7800.0,6300.0,6800.0,10800.0,9500.0,8400.0,7200.0,9500.0,8700.0,9200.0,8300.0,7900.0,7400.0,6100.0,6500.0,10300.0,9000.0,8100.0,7000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[18400.0,17600.0,19300.0,18500.0,18100.0,17400.0,17100.0,17700.0,18000.0,19400.0,18300.0,16100.0,17400.0,16900.0,18300.0,17800.0,17300.0,16600.0,16300.0,16800.0,17200.0,18500.0,17400.0,15300.0,16000.0,15500.0,16800.0,16200.0,15700.0,15100.0,14800.0,15300.0,15500.0,16800.0,15800.0,13900.0,14700.0,14200.0,15400.0,14900.0,14400.0,13800.0,13600.0,14000.0,14300.0,15500.0,14500.0,12800.0,13900.0,13500.0,14800.0,15300.0,15700.0,15500.0,15100.0,15300.0,15800.0,16600.0,15700.0,13900.0,15100.0,14600.0,15900.0,15400.0,15000.0,14400.0,14100.0,14500.0,14900.0,16000.0,15000.0,13200.0,14300.0,13800.0,15000.0,14500.0,14100.0,13500.0,13200.0,13600.0,14000.0,15000.0,14100.0,12400.0,13400.0,12900.0,14000.0,13500.0,13100.0,12500.0,12300.0,12600.0,13000.0,14000.0,13100.0,11500.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12600.0,12200.0,11700.0,11400.0,11800.0,12100.0,13000.0,12200.0,10700.0,11700.0,11200.0,12200.0,11800.0,11400.0,10900.0,10700.0,11000.0,11300.0,12200.0,11400.0,10000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[7350.0,7700.0,7700.0,7140.0,7000.0,6440.0,5950.0,6300.0,7350.0,7700.0,7350.0,5950.0,7140.0,7480.0,7480.0,6936.0,6800.0,6256.0,5780.0,6120.0,7140.0,7480.0,7140.0,5780.0,6930.0,7260.0,7260.0,6732.0,6600.0,6072.0,5610.0,5940.0,6930.0,7260.0,6930.0,5610.0,6615.0,6930.0,6930.0,6426.0,6300.0,5796.0,5355.0,5670.0,6615.0,6930.0,6615.0,5355.0,6720.0,7040.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,5888.0,5440.0,5760.0,6720.0,7040.0,6720.0,5440.0,6090.0,6380.0,6380.0,5916.0,5800.0,5336.0,4930.0,5220.0,6090.0,6380.0,6090.0,4930.0,5670.0,5940.0,5940.0,5508.0,5400.0,4968.0,4590.0,4860.0,5670.0,5940.0,5670.0,4590.0,5250.0,5500.0,5500.0,5100.0,5000.0,4600.0,4250.0,4500.0,5250.0,5500.0,5250.0,4250.0,4830.0,5060.0,5060.0,4692.0,4600.0,4232.0,3910.0,4140.0,4830.0,5060.0,4830.0,3910.0,4410.0,4620.0,4620.0,4284.0,4200.0,3864.0,3570.0,3780.0,4410.0,4620.0,4410.0,3570.0]}},{"title":"Demographics of Uganda","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Demographics of Uganda\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3269,4101,3501,3420,3220,2918,2694,2517,2873,3116,3270,2650,2885,2584,5904,3647,3968,3057,3131,2912,2995,3375,3948,3153,3772,2860,3020,2552,2937,2389,2512,2642,2595,2763,2650,2352,2855,2863,2933,2843,2797,2339,2507,2496,2382,2997,3257,3113,3876,3653,3863,4643,3777,3548,3278,4498,2960,3415,4176,3707,6204,3761,4430,3846,4856,3223,4251,3480,2778,2996,3322,2961,3241,2894,3149,2925,2700,2764,3801,3698,3454,3831,3647,3487,4041,3892,5536,4504,4509,4965,3913,3701,3333,3761,3647,3476,4148,3549,4009,3747,3838,4140,3998,3812,3616,4089,3309,3487,4529,4547,4280,3637,3956,5314,5142,4357,3606,4293,6602,3986],"flat_reference_value":17100.717385971846,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6100.0,6700.0,7100.0,6900.0,6500.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,6500.0,7200.0,7000.0,5700.0,6200.0,6800.0,7300.0,7000.0,6700.0,6200.0,5800.0,6000.0,6900.0,7500.0,7300.0,5900.0,6400.0,7000.0,7600.0,7200.0,6900.0,6300.0,6000.0,6200.0,7100.0,7700.0,7400.0,6100.0,6600.0,7300.0,7800.0,7500.0,7100.0,6500.0,6200.0,6400.0,7300.0,8000.0,7700.0,6300.0,6800.0,7400.0,7900.0,8300.0,7600.0,6900.0,6500.0,6700.0,7500.0,8200.0,7900.0,6600.0,8300.0,7800.0,8100.0,7700.0,7300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6600.0,7500.0,8200.0,7900.0,6500.0,7000.0,7600.0,8200.0,7800.0,7400.0,6900.0,6600.0,6800.0,7800.0,8500.0,8200.0,6700.0,7100.0,7700.0,8300.0,7900.0,7600.0,7000.0,6700.0,6900.0,7800.0,8500.0,8200.0,6700.0,7100.0,7700.0,8300.0,8200.0,10500.0,9000.0,7900.0,7600.0,8400.0,8800.0,8300.0,6800.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6600.0,7500.0,8100.0,7800.0,6300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4120.0,5180.0,4650.0,4790.0,4510.0,3680.0,3420.0,3590.0,4680.0,5120.0,4950.0,3780.0,4210.0,4560.0,4980.0,4820.0,4690.0,3750.0,3510.0,3690.0,4840.0,5340.0,5190.0,3910.0,5850.0,5120.0,5040.0,4960.0,4780.0,3820.0,3640.0,3810.0,4950.0,5480.0,5260.0,4020.0,4450.0,4810.0,5230.0,5110.0,4940.0,3980.0,3760.0,3920.0,5180.0,5690.0,5420.0,4180.0,4620.0,4980.0,4490.0,4250.0,4380.0,3890.0,3720.0,3950.0,5120.0,5640.0,5390.0,4310.0,6240.0,5280.0,5310.0,5160.0,4980.0,4080.0,3850.0,4020.0,5240.0,5720.0,5460.0,4210.0,4580.0,4890.0,5240.0,5060.0,4880.0,3960.0,3740.0,3890.0,5040.0,5490.0,5210.0,3980.0,4380.0,4650.0,5290.0,4950.0,5380.0,4120.0,3680.0,3790.0,4760.0,5140.0,4890.0,3740.0,4190.0,4480.0,4720.0,4860.0,9450.0,7820.0,6490.0,4620.0,5180.0,5940.0,5320.0,4050.0,4210.0,4390.0,4620.0,4510.0,4380.0,3560.0,3390.0,3520.0,4420.0,4780.0,4590.0,3680.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5210.0,6340.0,6720.0,6410.0,5830.0,4450.0,4120.0,4430.0,5850.0,6640.0,6920.0,4510.0,5740.0,6910.0,7280.0,7030.0,6320.0,4820.0,4510.0,4840.0,6370.0,7250.0,7530.0,4920.0,6120.0,7380.0,7810.0,7530.0,6790.0,5240.0,4890.0,5210.0,6820.0,7790.0,8110.0,5320.0,5910.0,7120.0,7430.0,7150.0,6480.0,4940.0,4620.0,4910.0,6530.0,7410.0,7720.0,5030.0,5540.0,6680.0,6110.0,6590.0,6120.0,4630.0,4310.0,4650.0,6140.0,7020.0,7240.0,4730.0,5420.0,6310.0,6640.0,6320.0,5790.0,4380.0,4090.0,4390.0,5810.0,6630.0,6910.0,4480.0,4920.0,5980.0,6240.0,5990.0,5470.0,4180.0,3890.0,4190.0,5510.0,6230.0,6480.0,4210.0,4730.0,5710.0,5990.0,5740.0,5210.0,3980.0,3710.0,3990.0,5240.0,5980.0,6220.0,4010.0,4890.0,5890.0,6210.0,6020.0,7840.0,8520.0,7230.0,6510.0,6840.0,7210.0,6620.0,4250.0,4580.0,5520.0,5790.0,5510.0,5020.0,3820.0,3590.0,3840.0,5040.0,5780.0,6010.0,3920.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[20500.0,24000.0,23500.0,22500.0,21500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,18500.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20500.0,20000.0,17500.0,16500.0,16500.0,18500.0,20500.0,21500.0,17000.0,17500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,18500.0,19500.0,15500.0,15500.0,17000.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,15000.0,16500.0,17000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16500.0,16500.0,15000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,14500.0,15000.0,12500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,10500.0,10500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,9500.0,9300.0,9300.0,10500.0,11500.0,12000.0,9800.0,9800.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8000.0,7800.0,7800.0,8500.0,9300.0,9700.0,8000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,9400.0,9300.0,8300.0,8000.0,8100.0,8900.0,9600.0,9700.0,8400.0,9300.0,9200.0,9900.0,9200.0,9400.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,8700.0,9400.0,9500.0,8100.0,9000.0,8800.0,9300.0,8900.0,8800.0,7700.0,7600.0,7600.0,8100.0,8800.0,8700.0,7500.0,8300.0,8000.0,8600.0,8100.0,8000.0,7100.0,7200.0,7100.0,7500.0,8000.0,7900.0,6900.0,7700.0,7500.0,7800.0,8300.0,8400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7100.0,7200.0,7500.0,7600.0,7000.0,8600.0,7400.0,7500.0,7100.0,7000.0,6600.0,6500.0,6400.0,6500.0,6800.0,6700.0,6000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6500.0,5900.0,5900.0,5900.0,6100.0,6500.0,6400.0,5700.0,6200.0,6000.0,6600.0,6200.0,6500.0,5800.0,5700.0,5700.0,5800.0,6100.0,6000.0,5400.0,5900.0,5700.0,6000.0,5900.0,6700.0,6500.0,6000.0,5600.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,5300.0,5600.0,5300.0,5700.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,4800.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4800.0,6600.0,5600.0,4900.0,5100.0,4700.0,4200.0,4400.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,4500.0,5200.0,5000.0,5400.0,4900.0,5100.0,4800.0,4400.0,4600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,4700.0,5700.0,5400.0,5800.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,5000.0,5900.0,6100.0,6000.0,5200.0,6200.0,5900.0,6300.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,5300.0,5500.0,6400.0,6600.0,6500.0,5600.0,6400.0,6100.0,8200.0,8600.0,7600.0,7000.0,6200.0,6400.0,7400.0,7700.0,7500.0,6400.0,14500.0,9200.0,8900.0,8300.0,8600.0,9200.0,9000.0,10800.0,8600.0,8900.0,8700.0,7500.0,8200.0,8400.0,8600.0,8400.0,8700.0,8500.0,7900.0,8300.0,10800.0,11700.0,13400.0,9200.0,9600.0,9900.0,11800.0,12900.0,13600.0,11800.0,10600.0,10200.0,10400.0,10700.0,10400.0,9300.0,10100.0,10400.0,10700.0,11400.0,13300.0,14900.0,14200.0,13800.0,12900.0,12000.0,12300.0,10600.0,10900.0,11200.0,11400.0,10900.0,11300.0,11500.0,10800.0,11000.0,11200.0,11500.0,11200.0,9800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3100.0,3750.0,3150.0,2900.0,2800.0,2500.0,2250.0,2350.0,2900.0,3050.0,2950.0,2300.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2850.0,2750.0,2400.0,2200.0,2250.0,2800.0,2950.0,2850.0,2200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2920.0,2730.0,2650.0,2320.0,2100.0,2180.0,2700.0,2860.0,2750.0,2150.0,2780.0,2720.0,2820.0,2630.0,2550.0,2240.0,2040.0,2110.0,2600.0,2760.0,2650.0,2080.0,2680.0,2600.0,3100.0,3430.0,3070.0,2160.0,1970.0,2030.0,2500.0,2660.0,2550.0,2000.0,2590.0,2530.0,2620.0,2440.0,2370.0,2080.0,1890.0,1950.0,2410.0,2560.0,2460.0,1930.0,2490.0,2430.0,2510.0,2350.0,2280.0,2000.0,1820.0,1880.0,2310.0,2460.0,2360.0,1850.0,2390.0,2340.0,2410.0,2260.0,2510.0,1920.0,1740.0,1800.0,2220.0,2360.0,2260.0,1770.0,2290.0,2240.0,2310.0,2160.0,2720.0,5150.0,3670.0,2590.0,2970.0,2250.0,2600.0,1700.0,2190.0,2140.0,2210.0,2070.0,2000.0,1760.0,1600.0,1650.0,2030.0,2150.0,2070.0,1620.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4730.0,5640.0,4970.0,4300.0,4130.0,3870.0,3700.0,3960.0,4390.0,4640.0,4730.0,4130.0,5280.0,5040.0,5040.0,4800.0,4610.0,4320.0,4130.0,4420.0,4900.0,5180.0,5280.0,4610.0,5830.0,5570.0,5570.0,5300.0,5090.0,4770.0,5010.0,5360.0,5410.0,5720.0,5830.0,5090.0,6380.0,6090.0,6090.0,5800.0,5570.0,5850.0,5590.0,5340.0,5920.0,6260.0,6380.0,5570.0,7260.0,6930.0,8320.0,7590.0,6840.0,5940.0,5680.0,6070.0,6730.0,7130.0,7260.0,6340.0,10840.0,8810.0,7670.0,7300.0,7010.0,7100.0,6280.0,6720.0,7450.0,7880.0,8030.0,7010.0,8470.0,8080.0,8080.0,7700.0,7390.0,6930.0,6620.0,7080.0,10210.0,11640.0,10590.0,8130.0,8910.0,8500.0,8500.0,8100.0,11280.0,10210.0,8010.0,7450.0,8260.0,8750.0,8910.0,7780.0,9130.0,8720.0,8720.0,8300.0,7970.0,7470.0,7140.0,9010.0,9740.0,9860.0,9130.0,7970.0,9700.0,9260.0,8820.0,8400.0,8060.0,7560.0,7220.0,7730.0,8570.0,9070.0,9240.0,8060.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1050.0,1120.0,1100.0,1150.0,1050.0,950.0,900.0,930.0,1100.0,1180.0,1120.0,980.0,1200.0,1150.0,1220.0,1280.0,1180.0,1050.0,1000.0,1040.0,1220.0,1300.0,1240.0,1100.0,1320.0,1260.0,1340.0,1400.0,1300.0,1160.0,1100.0,1140.0,1340.0,1420.0,1360.0,1200.0,1460.0,1400.0,1480.0,1550.0,1440.0,1280.0,1220.0,1260.0,1480.0,1570.0,1500.0,1330.0,1580.0,1520.0,1650.0,1700.0,1550.0,1380.0,1320.0,1360.0,1600.0,1680.0,1620.0,1440.0,2100.0,1900.0,1750.0,1800.0,1680.0,1500.0,1430.0,1470.0,1740.0,1830.0,1760.0,1570.0,1900.0,1830.0,1920.0,1980.0,1850.0,1650.0,1580.0,1620.0,2100.0,2300.0,2150.0,1800.0,2050.0,1980.0,2080.0,2140.0,2600.0,2400.0,1800.0,1840.0,2120.0,2220.0,2140.0,1920.0,2250.0,2180.0,2280.0,2340.0,3800.0,6500.0,4200.0,2400.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2400.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2760.0,2600.0,2350.0,2250.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,2620.0,2400.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1520.0,1870.0,1640.0,1420.0,1300.0,1320.0,1300.0,1630.0,2150.0,1990.0,1720.0,1330.0,1400.0,1550.0,1580.0,1270.0,1330.0,1200.0,1210.0,1240.0,1570.0,1420.0,1460.0,1370.0,1470.0,1380.0,1400.0,1370.0,1180.0,1200.0,1120.0,1250.0,1380.0,1480.0,1300.0,1250.0,1340.0,1460.0,1280.0,1270.0,1270.0,1110.0,1100.0,1120.0,1460.0,1410.0,1380.0,1150.0,1460.0,1470.0,1820.0,1750.0,1740.0,1410.0,1350.0,1300.0,1640.0,1510.0,1550.0,1350.0,2180.0,1940.0,1700.0,1300.0,1340.0,1220.0,1190.0,1310.0,1580.0,1440.0,1420.0,1350.0,1450.0,1560.0,1410.0,1430.0,1330.0,1260.0,1660.0,1240.0,1590.0,1520.0,1470.0,1260.0,1600.0,1520.0,1550.0,1350.0,1420.0,1280.0,1250.0,1400.0,1520.0,1610.0,1490.0,1380.0,1640.0,1740.0,1580.0,1750.0,2200.0,1850.0,1750.0,1660.0,2000.0,1870.0,1790.0,2380.0,3420.0,2640.0,2190.0,1570.0,1620.0,1600.0,1420.0,1580.0,1760.0,1780.0,1730.0,1520.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2020.0,2231.0,1907.0,1666.0,1785.0,1615.0,1496.0,1445.0,1836.0,1785.0,1734.0,1530.0,2052.0,1995.0,1938.0,1862.0,1995.0,1805.0,1672.0,1857.0,2216.0,1995.0,1938.0,1710.0,2322.0,2258.0,2193.0,2107.0,2258.0,2043.0,1892.0,1828.0,2322.0,2258.0,2193.0,1935.0,2592.0,2520.0,2448.0,2352.0,2520.0,2622.0,2281.0,2040.0,2592.0,2520.0,2448.0,2160.0,2916.0,2835.0,3305.0,3043.0,3062.0,2565.0,2376.0,2295.0,2916.0,2835.0,2754.0,2430.0,4212.0,3623.0,3213.0,2940.0,3150.0,2850.0,2640.0,2550.0,3240.0,3150.0,3060.0,2700.0,3564.0,3465.0,3366.0,3234.0,3465.0,3135.0,3427.0,3029.0,3564.0,3465.0,3366.0,2970.0,3834.0,3728.0,3621.0,3479.0,4175.0,3575.0,3124.0,3018.0,3834.0,3728.0,3621.0,3195.0,4212.0,4095.0,3978.0,3822.0,4095.0,3705.0,3947.0,3978.0,5265.0,4914.0,4973.0,5616.0,6421.0,5597.0,5018.0,4420.0,4649.0,3895.0,3608.0,3485.0,4428.0,4305.0,4182.0,3690.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1760.0,1680.0,5400.0,2750.0,1960.0,2140.0,2260.0,2410.0,2220.0,2310.0,2080.0,1940.0,1890.0,1760.0,2040.0,2180.0,1970.0,2230.0,2340.0,2500.0,2210.0,2330.0,2120.0,1990.0,1930.0,1820.0,2070.0,2210.0,2010.0,2190.0,2300.0,2390.0,2210.0,2320.0,2110.0,2020.0,2010.0,1870.0,2110.0,2240.0,2050.0,2240.0,2360.0,2480.0,2300.0,2390.0,2170.0,2100.0,2170.0,2010.0,2370.0,2650.0,2300.0,2480.0,2590.0,2700.0,2540.0,2730.0,2450.0,2320.0,2360.0,2170.0,2600.0,2900.0,2540.0,2790.0,2720.0,3050.0,2690.0,2920.0,2560.0,2460.0,2530.0,2290.0,2710.0,2850.0,2610.0,3030.0,4150.0,8600.0,6050.0,3390.0,3090.0,2820.0,2860.0,2570.0,2960.0,3140.0,2820.0,3040.0,7100.0,4420.0,3330.0,3510.0,3090.0,2860.0,3050.0,2720.0,3310.0,3440.0,3150.0,5300.0,4250.0,3540.0,3310.0,3500.0,7600.0,3650.0,3750.0,3300.0,3940.0,4060.0,3680.0,4150.0,3900.0,9100.0,6850.0,4760.0,4520.0,4050.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,1800.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2100.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2100.0,2100.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3600.0,4750.0,4300.0,3100.0,3050.0,2900.0,3250.0,3400.0,3650.0,3350.0,2950.0,2600.0,3700.0,3350.0,3300.0,3240.0,3150.0,2950.0,3350.0,3550.0,3800.0,3450.0,3050.0,2650.0,3900.0,3550.0,3500.0,3400.0,3350.0,3150.0,3550.0,3750.0,4000.0,3650.0,3200.0,2800.0,4250.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3650.0,3400.0,3850.0,4100.0,4350.0,3950.0,3500.0,3050.0,4350.0,3950.0,4900.0,4600.0,4300.0,3850.0,3950.0,4200.0,4500.0,4100.0,3600.0,3100.0,9600.0,6600.0,4750.0,4200.0,4000.0,3700.0,4250.0,4500.0,4800.0,4400.0,3900.0,3350.0,4800.0,4350.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,3850.0,4350.0,4600.0,4950.0,4500.0,3950.0,3450.0,4900.0,4450.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,3950.0,4450.0,4700.0,5050.0,4600.0,4050.0,3500.0,4850.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4150.0,3900.0,6200.0,10800.0,15800.0,8200.0,5600.0,3800.0,8900.0,6600.0,5500.0,4950.0,4800.0,4500.0,5100.0,5400.0,5750.0,5250.0,4600.0,3950.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1280.0,1340.0,1420.0,1390.0,1450.0,1370.0,1320.0,1280.0,1390.0,1440.0,1380.0,1190.0,1320.0,1400.0,1480.0,1430.0,1510.0,1450.0,1390.0,1350.0,1470.0,1510.0,1440.0,1260.0,1400.0,1490.0,1580.0,1530.0,1610.0,1540.0,1480.0,1440.0,1570.0,1620.0,1530.0,1340.0,1490.0,1580.0,1670.0,1630.0,1720.0,1650.0,1590.0,1530.0,1680.0,1740.0,1630.0,1420.0,1620.0,1700.0,1810.0,1770.0,1840.0,1780.0,1710.0,1660.0,1810.0,1880.0,1750.0,1510.0,2050.0,1880.0,1900.0,1840.0,1920.0,1850.0,1780.0,1730.0,1880.0,1950.0,1810.0,1570.0,1700.0,1800.0,1890.0,1840.0,1930.0,1860.0,1790.0,1740.0,1890.0,1960.0,1820.0,1590.0,1820.0,1930.0,2050.0,1990.0,2350.0,2130.0,2030.0,1970.0,2140.0,2210.0,2050.0,1790.0,1940.0,2050.0,2180.0,2110.0,3150.0,2780.0,2330.0,2200.0,2350.0,2420.0,2220.0,1940.0,2040.0,2160.0,2280.0,2200.0,2310.0,2230.0,2150.0,2090.0,2260.0,2340.0,2160.0,1890.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1265.0,1400.0,1265.0,1173.0,1150.0,1093.0,1058.0,1035.0,1185.0,1208.0,1150.0,1012.0,1240.0,1270.0,1250.0,1160.0,1140.0,1080.0,1050.0,1020.0,1170.0,1190.0,1130.0,1000.0,1298.0,1322.0,1298.0,1204.0,1180.0,1121.0,1086.0,1062.0,1215.0,1239.0,1180.0,1038.0,1320.0,1344.0,1320.0,1224.0,1200.0,1140.0,1104.0,1080.0,1236.0,1260.0,1200.0,1056.0,1430.0,1456.0,1550.0,1450.0,1300.0,1235.0,1196.0,1170.0,1339.0,1365.0,1300.0,1144.0,1800.0,1512.0,1485.0,1377.0,1350.0,1283.0,1242.0,1215.0,1391.0,1418.0,1350.0,1188.0,1375.0,1400.0,1375.0,1275.0,1250.0,1188.0,1150.0,1125.0,1288.0,1313.0,1250.0,1100.0,1265.0,1288.0,1265.0,1173.0,1250.0,1093.0,1058.0,1035.0,1185.0,1208.0,1150.0,1012.0,1155.0,1176.0,1155.0,1071.0,1050.0,998.0,966.0,945.0,1082.0,1103.0,1050.0,924.0,1045.0,1064.0,1045.0,969.0,950.0,903.0,874.0,855.0,979.0,998.0,950.0,836.0]}},{"title":"Frédéric Kanouté","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Frédéric Kanouté\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[9593,11526,8197,9101,16095,6978,6619,7193,6976,10243,10241,9015,14167,8814,10352,10651,7941,6943,6204,6970,8241,6364,7480,7366,9024,9064,9984,8078,7156,7027,6594,7952,5858,6317,6258,7100,7612,7901,7373,6270,14588,7643,7207,7732,7706,7161,6957,10122,8731,6506,11414,15337,15127,9957,9246,16492,9998,6572,6071,6373,7462,7177,9843,7807,9077,5519,6420,7140,6534,6338,6528,6595,12777,8994,7694,5836,6383,6430,5732,6711,5163,5574,5799,6543,6269,5116,6483,7332,9601,8267,5230,9222,10624,7835,7903,9632,16861,12245,8765,8484,9404,4932,8491,6172,8863,8035,7366,8774,6903,6836,9451,6613,8729,6009,10234,7678,7093,7388,9518,8029],"flat_reference_value":17028.294347269904,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6800.0,5900.0,6100.0,6200.0,8500.0,7200.0,6900.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,5500.0,7900.0,6200.0,6100.0,6000.0,6500.0,5700.0,5500.0,6200.0,5900.0,5800.0,6500.0,5600.0,6300.0,5800.0,6300.0,5900.0,6200.0,8000.0,7800.0,6200.0,5800.0,5700.0,5600.0,5700.0,6200.0,5500.0,5900.0,5700.0,5900.0,7000.0,7100.0,5900.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5500.0,5900.0,5400.0,5100.0,4700.0,4900.0,5500.0,5600.0,7500.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,6100.0,5600.0,6000.0,5900.0,6200.0,6500.0,6400.0,6000.0,5700.0,5800.0,5800.0,6000.0,8200.0,6500.0,6100.0,5900.0,6100.0,5700.0,5600.0,6200.0,5800.0,5900.0,7000.0,7600.0,6300.0,5900.0,6200.0,6500.0,8500.0,7200.0,5700.0,6300.0,5900.0,7000.0,6200.0,6000.0,8700.0,7400.0,6200.0,6000.0,6200.0,6400.0,6700.0,6100.0,5900.0,6000.0,5800.0,5900.0,6300.0,5700.0,6100.0,5900.0,6200.0,5800.0,5700.0,6200.0,5900.0,6000.0,5800.0,7400.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[21400.0,19200.0,19500.0,19800.0,26500.0,17600.0,16900.0,19400.0,18700.0,18200.0,17900.0,18500.0,29800.0,19100.0,18300.0,17800.0,18100.0,16200.0,15900.0,18400.0,17900.0,17400.0,17100.0,17600.0,18900.0,16800.0,17500.0,17200.0,17400.0,19800.0,18200.0,17300.0,16600.0,16400.0,16100.0,16900.0,17800.0,16200.0,16900.0,16700.0,17300.0,24600.0,23800.0,16900.0,16100.0,15800.0,15600.0,16400.0,17200.0,15900.0,15400.0,17900.0,18300.0,16500.0,16800.0,21200.0,16400.0,16100.0,15800.0,16500.0,17400.0,15900.0,16200.0,16400.0,25400.0,16100.0,15300.0,16300.0,15700.0,15400.0,15200.0,16100.0,28400.0,18900.0,16200.0,15800.0,15600.0,13900.0,13600.0,15200.0,14800.0,14600.0,17800.0,18400.0,15900.0,14400.0,15100.0,15300.0,19600.0,15800.0,13700.0,14900.0,14300.0,36500.0,24800.0,17200.0,31800.0,26900.0,15400.0,14600.0,14900.0,13800.0,13400.0,14500.0,13900.0,14200.0,13700.0,14300.0,14800.0,13400.0,14100.0,13600.0,14200.0,12700.0,12400.0,13800.0,13300.0,13100.0,13500.0,23600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[13400.0,12100.0,11800.0,12500.0,17800.0,12900.0,11600.0,12200.0,11500.0,11200.0,10900.0,11300.0,14200.0,13100.0,11000.0,10600.0,11400.0,10200.0,10800.0,11500.0,10700.0,10400.0,10100.0,10600.0,11200.0,10300.0,10900.0,10500.0,11300.0,11800.0,10700.0,10400.0,9900.0,9800.0,9600.0,10200.0,10500.0,9700.0,9900.0,10400.0,14800.0,13500.0,12800.0,10900.0,10100.0,9800.0,9500.0,9900.0,10300.0,9600.0,9800.0,12400.0,28500.0,14200.0,11300.0,13600.0,10800.0,9900.0,9400.0,9600.0,10200.0,9100.0,9300.0,9500.0,10100.0,8900.0,8800.0,9700.0,9200.0,8900.0,8700.0,9100.0,12600.0,11100.0,9200.0,8900.0,9400.0,8300.0,8500.0,9100.0,8600.0,8400.0,9000.0,9300.0,9200.0,8500.0,8700.0,9100.0,13800.0,9900.0,8200.0,8900.0,8500.0,8300.0,8100.0,8400.0,12100.0,11300.0,8800.0,8400.0,8700.0,8100.0,8300.0,8600.0,8200.0,8000.0,7900.0,8200.0,8900.0,8100.0,8300.0,8200.0,8600.0,7900.0,8000.0,8400.0,8100.0,7800.0,7700.0,8000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[8600.0,8200.0,8500.0,8300.0,10200.0,9600.0,8400.0,8000.0,7900.0,7800.0,7600.0,7200.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7400.0,8600.0,9200.0,7300.0,7100.0,7000.0,7000.0,6900.0,6500.0,6900.0,6600.0,6800.0,6700.0,8100.0,8300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6300.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0,6300.0,6100.0,6200.0,6400.0,8000.0,7000.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,5900.0,5700.0,6100.0,7400.0,7800.0,6300.0,5900.0,7200.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5200.0,5500.0,5300.0,5500.0,7200.0,7000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,5300.0,7000.0,5800.0,4800.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,5600.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,5800.0,6500.0,6200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,5900.0,5300.0,4400.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,5600.0,4400.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25500.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23500.0,23000.0,23000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21000.0,20500.0,20500.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,21500.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18500.0,20000.0,20500.0,20000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,19000.0,23000.0,23000.0,20000.0,19000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,17500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16500.0,14500.0,13500.0,14000.0,14500.0,16000.0,14500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,15000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,5600.0,4200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,4400.0,3600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,3500.0,4800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,3300.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,2200.0,1800.0,2000.0,2300.0,2500.0,2900.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,4200.0,2700.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,3500.0,2700.0,5300.0,3900.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2900.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,3000.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2900.0,7200.0,6100.0,3200.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2843.0,2512.0,2785.0,2411.0,2654.0,2198.0,2045.0,2256.0,2623.0,2768.0,2701.0,2432.0,3218.0,2447.0,2671.0,2319.0,2543.0,2088.0,1964.0,2159.0,2528.0,2655.0,2591.0,2338.0,2612.0,2355.0,2568.0,2241.0,2437.0,2315.0,2193.0,2076.0,2429.0,2552.0,2488.0,2254.0,2394.0,2158.0,2351.0,2052.0,2234.0,2146.0,1937.0,1902.0,2226.0,2340.0,2281.0,2059.0,2286.0,2061.0,3023.0,2571.0,2133.0,1762.0,1651.0,1814.0,2125.0,2233.0,2178.0,1964.0,2177.0,1962.0,2137.0,1865.0,2031.0,1781.0,1680.0,1729.0,2024.0,2127.0,2074.0,1871.0,2463.0,1864.0,2030.0,1772.0,1930.0,1597.0,1497.0,1642.0,1923.0,2020.0,2366.0,2172.0,1959.0,1766.0,1923.0,1679.0,1829.0,1512.0,1419.0,1556.0,1822.0,1914.0,1866.0,1684.0,2444.0,1668.0,1816.0,1586.0,1727.0,1429.0,1340.0,1469.0,1721.0,1808.0,1762.0,1591.0,1796.0,1619.0,1762.0,1539.0,1676.0,1386.0,1301.0,1426.0,1670.0,1754.0,1710.0,1544.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3700.0,3300.0,3800.0,3200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2500.0,2900.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,10500.0,5200.0,3500.0,3100.0,3000.0,2700.0,2500.0,2900.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,3400.0,3100.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2500.0,8000.0,5600.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,7500.0,4200.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,3200.0,3600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,9000.0,5000.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,4500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,3200.0,2600.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2600.0,2400.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1700.0,1800.0,4200.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1600.0,2800.0,2400.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,3800.0,2800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,2600.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[22.0,28.0,24.0,21.0,19.0,27.0,32.0,45.0,34.0,27.0,23.0,21.0,38.0,720.0,460.0,320.0,410.0,760.0,620.0,340.0,280.0,260.0,250.0,230.0,240.0,260.0,250.0,280.0,260.0,850.0,640.0,700.0,560.0,470.0,440.0,420.0,480.0,9200.0,6800.0,4200.0,3000.0,2100.0,2200.0,3800.0,3200.0,2800.0,2700.0,3100.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2100.0,2100.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,6200.0,4300.0,2900.0,3000.0,2600.0,3600.0,2600.0,2300.0,2000.0,2100.0,3400.0,3300.0,3000.0,3600.0,3200.0,11500.0,7800.0,3400.0,2800.0,2500.0,2100.0,3400.0,3600.0,2600.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,2200.0,1700.0,4200.0,1800.0,1700.0,3800.0,2300.0,5200.0,2300.0,1900.0,6200.0,2800.0,10800.0,8500.0,4400.0,1600.0,1500.0,3800.0,1600.0,2000.0,2400.0,5200.0,2100.0,1400.0,2000.0,1500.0,1900.0,1100.0,1000.0,1500.0,1800.0,1900.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4028.0,3800.0,4028.0,4028.0,4180.0,3192.0,3040.0,3648.0,4880.0,4028.0,4028.0,3420.0,7060.0,8880.0,3922.0,3922.0,4070.0,3108.0,2960.0,3552.0,4770.0,3922.0,3922.0,3330.0,3710.0,3500.0,3710.0,3710.0,3850.0,2940.0,2800.0,3360.0,4550.0,3710.0,3710.0,3150.0,3604.0,3400.0,3604.0,3604.0,3740.0,5141.0,6528.0,3754.0,4440.0,3604.0,3604.0,3060.0,3286.0,3100.0,3286.0,3286.0,3410.0,2604.0,2480.0,2976.0,4110.0,3286.0,3286.0,2790.0,3074.0,2900.0,3074.0,3074.0,3190.0,2436.0,2320.0,2784.0,3890.0,3074.0,3074.0,2610.0,6530.0,5040.0,2968.0,2968.0,3080.0,2352.0,2240.0,2688.0,3780.0,2968.0,2968.0,2520.0,2756.0,2600.0,2756.0,2756.0,2860.0,2184.0,2080.0,2496.0,3560.0,2756.0,2756.0,2691.0,6339.0,8320.0,3583.0,2756.0,2860.0,2184.0,2080.0,2496.0,3560.0,2756.0,2756.0,2340.0,2544.0,2400.0,2544.0,2544.0,2640.0,2016.0,1920.0,2304.0,3340.0,2544.0,2544.0,4320.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1400.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,2600.0,1500.0,1150.0,1000.0,1300.0,1150.0,1250.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,800.0,850.0,950.0,850.0,750.0,780.0,780.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,750.0,650.0,600.0,700.0,700.0,650.0,720.0,680.0,750.0,620.0,580.0,560.0,600.0,520.0,480.0,600.0,580.0,520.0,540.0,560.0,620.0,580.0,700.0,600.0,520.0,460.0,430.0,520.0,540.0,500.0,520.0,540.0,750.0,620.0,580.0,1500.0,1400.0,800.0,620.0,680.0,620.0,580.0,620.0,600.0,660.0,600.0,560.0,540.0,580.0,500.0,470.0,560.0,540.0,500.0,600.0,560.0,620.0,560.0,520.0,500.0,520.0,460.0,430.0,520.0,500.0,470.0,560.0,500.0,560.0,500.0,460.0,450.0,480.0,420.0,400.0,470.0,460.0,430.0,480.0,470.0,520.0,470.0,440.0,430.0,460.0,400.0,380.0,440.0,430.0,410.0,450.0,460.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1700.0,1500.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,1000.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,1000.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,780.0,770.0,760.0,760.0,750.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,750.0,780.0,740.0,730.0,720.0,720.0,720.0,780.0,760.0,780.0,740.0,720.0,710.0,720.0,720.0,700.0,700.0,690.0,690.0,680.0,680.0,760.0,720.0,690.0,680.0,690.0,680.0,670.0,660.0,650.0,650.0,640.0,640.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,640.0,640.0,630.0,630.0,620.0,620.0,610.0,610.0,620.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1950.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1700.0,1950.0,2250.0,2450.0,2700.0,2150.0,1850.0,1650.0,2150.0,1800.0,1600.0,1550.0,1800.0,1950.0,2100.0,2200.0,2350.0,1950.0,1700.0,1600.0,1750.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1700.0,2500.0,2900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1550.0,1450.0,1650.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1650.0,2050.0,2450.0,1800.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1400.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1350.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1550.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1750.0,1950.0,1450.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1350.0,1450.0,1250.0,1350.0,1200.0,2050.0,2650.0,1350.0,1250.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1150.0,1250.0,1150.0,1050.0,1000.0,1550.0,1350.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1350.0,1600.0,6800.0,18000.0,9000.0,5200.0,3000.0,1750.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1600.0,2300.0,1950.0,1350.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1180.0,1010.0,930.0,880.0,940.0,1020.0,1090.0,970.0,930.0,900.0,960.0,910.0,1420.0,1850.0,1120.0,970.0,990.0,1050.0,1010.0,960.0,940.0,920.0,980.0,900.0,990.0,920.0,940.0,900.0,950.0,1260.0,1140.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,930.0,860.0,980.0,920.0,900.0,890.0,950.0,1450.0,1710.0,1020.0,900.0,870.0,920.0,850.0,940.0,900.0,980.0,920.0,860.0,890.0,900.0,940.0,880.0,850.0,900.0,870.0,920.0,880.0,870.0,840.0,890.0,900.0,920.0,890.0,860.0,880.0,940.0,900.0,1510.0,1780.0,1020.0,900.0,880.0,910.0,930.0,870.0,850.0,860.0,920.0,980.0,890.0,860.0,850.0,830.0,870.0,890.0,900.0,870.0,850.0,880.0,920.0,1040.0,1980.0,2460.0,1380.0,1030.0,940.0,920.0,910.0,880.0,860.0,850.0,900.0,930.0,980.0,910.0,870.0,840.0,850.0,880.0,900.0,870.0,850.0,860.0,900.0,880.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[700.0,620.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,620.0,600.0,520.0,500.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,1000.0,900.0,550.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,480.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,440.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,520.0,700.0,420.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,360.0,350.0,360.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,320.0,310.0,310.0,300.0,300.0,300.0,300.0,290.0,290.0,280.0,280.0,280.0,270.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,260.0,420.0,600.0,300.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,240.0,240.0,240.0,240.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,240.0,240.0,240.0,240.0,230.0,230.0,230.0,230.0,240.0,600.0,500.0,280.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,240.0,240.0,230.0,230.0,220.0,220.0,230.0,220.0,220.0,210.0,210.0,210.0,210.0,200.0,200.0,200.0,200.0,200.0]}},{"title":"Microsoft FrontPage","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Microsoft FrontPage\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[14821,15410,15944,15330,15040,13607,11362,12657,13438,12079,12445,11147,13092,12467,14016,11962,12630,9904,9426,9874,10491,11783,12702,11139,12504,12417,13898,11660,12052,9698,9632,8989,9715,10152,9803,8572,10441,9716,10160,9574,9334,7794,8566,7068,7706,8054,8248,7019,8467,8835,6970,7721,6971,7238,6659,6661,6912,7460,6786,6640,7099,6752,7718,6468,6053,6214,6556,7541,6819,6834,6539,6862,6532,7833,8572,6765,6805,6684,6167,6147,5445,5389,5605,5118,5671,5670,6263,5966,6301,6301,5912,6950,7669,7101,7023,6572,7752,7434,7253,7219,6285,4549,4379,4401,4700,4747,4339,4175,4635,4362,4161,3727,3857,3158,3510,3703,3525,3726,3280,3017],"flat_reference_value":17033.410883174845,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7300.0,7000.0,7600.0,7100.0,7200.0,6700.0,6400.0,6600.0,7100.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,7000.0,6400.0,6900.0,6600.0,6800.0,6300.0,6100.0,6300.0,6500.0,6800.0,6400.0,6000.0,6600.0,5900.0,6500.0,6200.0,6400.0,5900.0,5800.0,6000.0,6200.0,6400.0,6000.0,5700.0,6200.0,5600.0,6100.0,5900.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5600.0,5800.0,6100.0,5700.0,5400.0,5900.0,5600.0,5700.0,5500.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,5400.0,5500.0,5700.0,5400.0,5200.0,5600.0,5000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5300.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,5200.0,4700.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,4700.0,4400.0,4900.0,4400.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4500.0,4700.0,4400.0,4100.0,4600.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4000.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,4300.0,3900.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3700.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[14620.0,13950.0,14880.0,14120.0,13890.0,12750.0,12410.0,12680.0,13450.0,13980.0,13520.0,12190.0,13140.0,12180.0,13490.0,12560.0,12610.0,11480.0,11230.0,11490.0,12050.0,12640.0,12170.0,10950.0,11820.0,10940.0,12110.0,11380.0,11290.0,10240.0,10080.0,10310.0,10760.0,11390.0,10880.0,9840.0,10690.0,9870.0,10920.0,10310.0,10250.0,9280.0,9190.0,9350.0,9820.0,10380.0,9910.0,8970.0,9740.0,9210.0,9980.0,10450.0,10320.0,9410.0,9120.0,9080.0,9390.0,9780.0,9340.0,8650.0,9260.0,8490.0,9380.0,8870.0,8790.0,8040.0,7910.0,8060.0,8420.0,8850.0,8490.0,7760.0,8390.0,7680.0,8510.0,7980.0,7940.0,7290.0,7180.0,7340.0,7690.0,8070.0,7750.0,7080.0,7680.0,7040.0,7820.0,7310.0,7290.0,6720.0,6640.0,6790.0,7080.0,7460.0,7190.0,6540.0,7090.0,6740.0,7180.0,6790.0,6710.0,6150.0,6080.0,6190.0,6470.0,6840.0,6530.0,5980.0,6450.0,5910.0,6540.0,6180.0,6120.0,5640.0,5580.0,5690.0,5940.0,6270.0,5990.0,5480.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[24510.0,26140.0,27230.0,25890.0,23980.0,21470.0,19820.0,20530.0,23410.0,25920.0,26340.0,21190.0,22840.0,23510.0,24900.0,23210.0,22080.0,19520.0,18230.0,18910.0,21430.0,23150.0,23780.0,19410.0,21230.0,22050.0,22810.0,21490.0,20120.0,17890.0,16780.0,17420.0,19780.0,21340.0,21910.0,17620.0,19530.0,19820.0,20640.0,19230.0,18090.0,16180.0,15120.0,15740.0,17890.0,19380.0,19810.0,15990.0,18210.0,18890.0,19520.0,21240.0,20410.0,18120.0,17030.0,17540.0,19210.0,20480.0,20110.0,17140.0,17890.0,18230.0,18810.0,17590.0,16480.0,14790.0,13910.0,14420.0,16210.0,17430.0,17780.0,14510.0,15820.0,16110.0,16730.0,15410.0,14580.0,13090.0,12380.0,12820.0,14520.0,15610.0,15890.0,12980.0,14210.0,14530.0,15120.0,13980.0,13270.0,11890.0,11210.0,11620.0,13120.0,14190.0,14410.0,11780.0,13080.0,13390.0,13910.0,12890.0,12210.0,10920.0,10380.0,10720.0,12110.0,13020.0,13280.0,10810.0,12090.0,12320.0,12790.0,11880.0,11280.0,10120.0,9610.0,9920.0,11180.0,11980.0,12210.0,9910.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[9400.0,9100.0,9500.0,9200.0,8900.0,8300.0,8100.0,8200.0,8600.0,8900.0,8800.0,7900.0,8500.0,8300.0,8700.0,8200.0,8100.0,7500.0,7300.0,7400.0,7700.0,8000.0,7900.0,7000.0,7600.0,7300.0,7600.0,7300.0,7100.0,6600.0,6500.0,6500.0,6800.0,7000.0,6900.0,6200.0,6700.0,6500.0,6700.0,6400.0,6300.0,5900.0,5800.0,5800.0,6000.0,6200.0,6100.0,5500.0,6000.0,5800.0,6300.0,6600.0,6200.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5500.0,5700.0,5600.0,5100.0,5500.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4900.0,4700.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4100.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,3800.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3400.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[16800.0,16200.0,16500.0,15800.0,15600.0,14500.0,14000.0,14300.0,14800.0,15200.0,15000.0,13800.0,15200.0,14300.0,15000.0,13900.0,14000.0,13000.0,12600.0,12800.0,13000.0,13500.0,13300.0,12200.0,13500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12300.0,12200.0,11300.0,11200.0,11300.0,11400.0,11900.0,11600.0,10800.0,11900.0,11000.0,11500.0,10900.0,10900.0,10100.0,10200.0,10200.0,10300.0,10600.0,10400.0,9800.0,10700.0,10000.0,10400.0,11000.0,11000.0,10200.0,10000.0,9900.0,9800.0,9900.0,9700.0,9400.0,10000.0,9200.0,9700.0,9100.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8600.0,8500.0,8700.0,8600.0,8300.0,8900.0,8200.0,8700.0,8200.0,8200.0,7800.0,7800.0,7900.0,7800.0,8000.0,7900.0,7600.0,8200.0,7600.0,8000.0,7700.0,7800.0,7300.0,7400.0,7400.0,7300.0,7500.0,7400.0,7200.0,7700.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7300.0,6900.0,7000.0,7000.0,6900.0,7100.0,7000.0,6900.0,7300.0,6800.0,7200.0,7000.0,7000.0,6700.0,6700.0,6700.0,6600.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[13600.0,13300.0,13400.0,12700.0,12600.0,11700.0,11300.0,12100.0,13700.0,13900.0,13400.0,11600.0,13100.0,12600.0,12800.0,12200.0,12000.0,11200.0,10800.0,11500.0,13000.0,13300.0,12800.0,11100.0,12400.0,12000.0,12200.0,11600.0,11400.0,10600.0,10300.0,11000.0,12400.0,12600.0,12200.0,10500.0,11800.0,11400.0,11500.0,11000.0,10900.0,10100.0,9700.0,10400.0,11800.0,12000.0,11500.0,10000.0,11900.0,11600.0,13700.0,12800.0,11900.0,10400.0,9800.0,10500.0,11900.0,12100.0,11600.0,10100.0,11300.0,11000.0,11100.0,10600.0,10500.0,9700.0,9400.0,10000.0,11300.0,15000.0,11400.0,9800.0,10700.0,10400.0,10500.0,10000.0,9900.0,9200.0,8900.0,9500.0,12800.0,11400.0,10500.0,9100.0,10200.0,9900.0,10000.0,9500.0,9400.0,8700.0,8400.0,9000.0,10200.0,10400.0,10000.0,8700.0,9700.0,10300.0,9500.0,9000.0,8900.0,8300.0,8000.0,8600.0,9700.0,9800.0,9500.0,8200.0,9200.0,9000.0,9100.0,8600.0,8500.0,7900.0,7700.0,8200.0,9200.0,9400.0,9100.0,7900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2950.0,2450.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2150.0,2100.0,2600.0,2700.0,2550.0,2100.0,2750.0,2300.0,2600.0,2450.0,2380.0,2200.0,2050.0,2000.0,2450.0,2550.0,2420.0,2000.0,2600.0,2180.0,2450.0,2320.0,2250.0,2080.0,1950.0,1920.0,2320.0,2400.0,2280.0,1900.0,2450.0,2050.0,2300.0,2180.0,2120.0,1950.0,1820.0,1800.0,2180.0,2260.0,2150.0,1780.0,2300.0,1950.0,2250.0,2350.0,2100.0,1850.0,1700.0,1680.0,2050.0,2120.0,2000.0,1700.0,2150.0,1780.0,2000.0,1900.0,1820.0,1700.0,1580.0,1560.0,1900.0,1980.0,1860.0,1550.0,1980.0,1650.0,1850.0,1750.0,1680.0,1580.0,1460.0,1440.0,1760.0,1820.0,1720.0,1430.0,1820.0,1520.0,1700.0,1610.0,1550.0,1440.0,1350.0,1330.0,1620.0,1680.0,1580.0,1320.0,1670.0,1400.0,1560.0,1470.0,1420.0,1320.0,1230.0,1210.0,1480.0,1540.0,1450.0,1210.0,1520.0,1270.0,1420.0,1340.0,1290.0,1200.0,1120.0,1100.0,1340.0,1400.0,1320.0,1100.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[10500.0,10200.0,10800.0,10400.0,10150.0,9600.0,9350.0,9500.0,10350.0,10700.0,10300.0,9800.0,10100.0,9850.0,10350.0,10050.0,9750.0,9250.0,9000.0,9100.0,9950.0,10250.0,9950.0,9450.0,9700.0,9400.0,10450.0,9700.0,9350.0,8850.0,8650.0,8750.0,9550.0,9850.0,9550.0,9050.0,9300.0,9000.0,9500.0,9300.0,9000.0,8500.0,8300.0,8350.0,9150.0,9450.0,9150.0,8650.0,9350.0,9150.0,10600.0,10800.0,9800.0,9100.0,8850.0,8950.0,9750.0,10100.0,9850.0,9350.0,8950.0,8700.0,9200.0,8950.0,8700.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,8850.0,9150.0,9200.0,8350.0,8650.0,8400.0,8900.0,8650.0,8400.0,7950.0,7750.0,7850.0,8550.0,8850.0,8550.0,8100.0,8350.0,8100.0,8600.0,8350.0,8100.0,7650.0,8350.0,7550.0,8250.0,8550.0,8250.0,7800.0,8050.0,7800.0,8300.0,8050.0,7800.0,7350.0,7150.0,7250.0,7950.0,8250.0,7950.0,7500.0,7750.0,7500.0,7950.0,7750.0,7500.0,7050.0,6850.0,6950.0,7650.0,7950.0,7650.0,7200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3310.0,3120.0,3260.0,2980.0,2920.0,2740.0,2630.0,2750.0,3100.0,3210.0,3060.0,2900.0,3090.0,2920.0,3050.0,2790.0,2730.0,2560.0,2450.0,2560.0,2890.0,2990.0,2860.0,2700.0,2870.0,2710.0,2820.0,2580.0,2530.0,2380.0,2270.0,2380.0,2690.0,2770.0,2650.0,2510.0,2650.0,2500.0,2600.0,2390.0,2330.0,2190.0,2100.0,2200.0,2480.0,2560.0,2450.0,2320.0,2430.0,2330.0,2450.0,2280.0,2200.0,2040.0,1950.0,2020.0,2270.0,2350.0,2250.0,2130.0,2260.0,2140.0,2230.0,2040.0,1990.0,1870.0,1790.0,1870.0,2120.0,2190.0,2100.0,1980.0,2100.0,1980.0,2060.0,1890.0,1840.0,1740.0,1660.0,1730.0,1970.0,2030.0,1940.0,1830.0,1930.0,1820.0,1900.0,1740.0,1700.0,1600.0,1530.0,1590.0,1810.0,1870.0,1790.0,1690.0,1770.0,1670.0,1740.0,1590.0,1550.0,1460.0,1400.0,1460.0,1650.0,1710.0,1630.0,1540.0,1600.0,1510.0,1570.0,1440.0,1410.0,1320.0,1270.0,1320.0,1500.0,1550.0,1480.0,1400.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2080.0,1915.0,2110.0,1975.0,1990.0,1680.0,1665.0,1745.0,2155.0,2095.0,2040.0,1835.0,1930.0,1895.0,1905.0,1935.0,1830.0,1645.0,1540.0,1695.0,1985.0,2060.0,1885.0,1790.0,1875.0,1735.0,1880.0,1765.0,1790.0,1505.0,1500.0,1560.0,1930.0,1895.0,1845.0,1650.0,1735.0,1705.0,1725.0,1730.0,1655.0,1475.0,1380.0,1530.0,1780.0,1855.0,1700.0,1610.0,1710.0,1580.0,2050.0,2015.0,1825.0,1370.0,1370.0,1420.0,1760.0,1725.0,1675.0,1505.0,1590.0,1560.0,1585.0,1595.0,1515.0,1355.0,1265.0,1405.0,1630.0,1695.0,1555.0,1480.0,1560.0,1440.0,1565.0,1470.0,1485.0,1530.0,1350.0,1340.0,1560.0,1620.0,1485.0,1415.0,1440.0,1415.0,1455.0,1445.0,1375.0,1235.0,1150.0,1275.0,1485.0,1545.0,1415.0,1345.0,1425.0,1315.0,1415.0,1385.0,1315.0,1185.0,1100.0,1225.0,1420.0,1480.0,1355.0,1285.0,1320.0,1295.0,1315.0,1325.0,1255.0,1130.0,1050.0,1170.0,1355.0,1415.0,1295.0,1230.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[8196.0,9365.0,9993.0,9632.0,9099.0,7310.0,6244.0,6949.0,9813.0,9632.0,9365.0,7587.0,7624.0,8712.0,9296.0,8960.0,8464.0,6800.0,5808.0,6464.0,9128.0,8960.0,8712.0,7056.0,7052.0,8059.0,8599.0,8288.0,7829.0,6290.0,5372.0,5979.0,8441.0,8288.0,8059.0,6527.0,6480.0,7405.0,7902.0,7616.0,7194.0,5780.0,4937.0,5494.0,7759.0,7616.0,7405.0,5998.0,6099.0,6970.0,8181.0,7598.0,6974.0,5440.0,4646.0,5171.0,7302.0,7168.0,6970.0,5645.0,5623.0,6425.0,6856.0,6608.0,6242.0,5015.0,4283.0,4767.0,6732.0,6608.0,6425.0,5204.0,5146.0,5881.0,6275.0,6048.0,5713.0,4590.0,3920.0,4363.0,6161.0,6048.0,5881.0,4763.0,4717.0,5391.0,5752.0,5544.0,5237.0,4208.0,3594.0,4000.0,5648.0,5544.0,5391.0,4366.0,4336.0,4955.0,5287.0,5096.0,4814.0,3868.0,3303.0,3676.0,5192.0,5096.0,4955.0,4013.0,4003.0,4574.0,4880.0,4704.0,4444.0,3570.0,3049.0,3394.0,4792.0,4704.0,4574.0,3704.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[14200.0,12900.0,13600.0,13900.0,12800.0,11700.0,10900.0,11200.0,12700.0,13800.0,15000.0,14400.0,13700.0,12300.0,13000.0,12700.0,11700.0,10800.0,10000.0,10300.0,11700.0,12800.0,14000.0,13300.0,12600.0,11300.0,11900.0,11700.0,10700.0,9800.0,9100.0,9400.0,10700.0,11700.0,12900.0,12200.0,11900.0,10700.0,11200.0,11000.0,10000.0,9200.0,8600.0,8800.0,10000.0,11000.0,12100.0,11500.0,11200.0,10000.0,10500.0,10300.0,9500.0,8700.0,8200.0,8400.0,9500.0,10400.0,27500.0,19000.0,16500.0,14000.0,15000.0,25500.0,18500.0,12500.0,10800.0,11000.0,15000.0,17000.0,12500.0,10800.0,10500.0,9300.0,9800.0,9200.0,8400.0,7700.0,7100.0,7300.0,8200.0,8800.0,9500.0,8600.0,9000.0,8000.0,8300.0,8200.0,7600.0,7000.0,6600.0,6700.0,7400.0,8000.0,8600.0,8100.0,8200.0,7300.0,7600.0,7500.0,6900.0,6300.0,5900.0,6000.0,6700.0,7300.0,7900.0,7400.0,7700.0,6800.0,7100.0,7000.0,6500.0,5900.0,5500.0,5600.0,6300.0,6900.0,7500.0,7000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,2800.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2600.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2400.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2200.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1700.0,1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1450.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1550.0,1550.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1350.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[9400.0,5800.0,7100.0,7100.0,7000.0,5500.0,5300.0,6000.0,18600.0,6900.0,7500.0,8600.0,7800.0,4700.0,8900.0,6000.0,5850.0,4550.0,4400.0,4950.0,7000.0,5600.0,6000.0,7000.0,6500.0,4100.0,5100.0,5100.0,4800.0,3800.0,3700.0,4200.0,6100.0,4800.0,5050.0,6050.0,5800.0,3550.0,4350.0,4400.0,4250.0,3400.0,3300.0,4000.0,5050.0,4400.0,4350.0,5250.0,5200.0,3200.0,4600.0,5600.0,4250.0,3100.0,3000.0,3350.0,4700.0,3850.0,4050.0,4800.0,4700.0,2850.0,3550.0,3600.0,3450.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,5500.0,3550.0,3500.0,4450.0,4150.0,2800.0,3200.0,3450.0,2950.0,2600.0,2350.0,2900.0,3750.0,3250.0,3200.0,4050.0,3950.0,3150.0,2800.0,3100.0,2750.0,2350.0,2150.0,2650.0,3350.0,2950.0,2850.0,3700.0,3350.0,2300.0,2600.0,2800.0,2450.0,2100.0,1900.0,2350.0,3050.0,2700.0,3200.0,3200.0,3250.0,2000.0,2400.0,2450.0,2800.0,1900.0,1850.0,2050.0,2900.0,2400.0,2500.0,2950.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2820.0,2660.0,2790.0,2630.0,2720.0,2490.0,2390.0,2540.0,2710.0,2670.0,2530.0,2260.0,2710.0,2490.0,2620.0,2510.0,2540.0,2390.0,2260.0,2440.0,2580.0,2490.0,2390.0,2140.0,2540.0,2360.0,2460.0,2350.0,2410.0,2210.0,2170.0,2300.0,2410.0,2390.0,2260.0,2040.0,2390.0,2240.0,2310.0,2210.0,2260.0,2110.0,2010.0,2160.0,2320.0,2260.0,2140.0,1940.0,2290.0,2170.0,2490.0,2730.0,2610.0,2390.0,2260.0,2350.0,2470.0,2360.0,2240.0,2020.0,2290.0,2120.0,2260.0,2180.0,2150.0,2010.0,1930.0,2070.0,2220.0,2160.0,2040.0,1860.0,2170.0,2010.0,2110.0,2010.0,2050.0,1900.0,1840.0,1970.0,2110.0,2070.0,1960.0,1760.0,2070.0,1920.0,2010.0,1920.0,1960.0,1810.0,1750.0,1870.0,2000.0,1950.0,1850.0,1670.0,1950.0,1810.0,1900.0,1820.0,1840.0,1720.0,1630.0,1780.0,1900.0,1840.0,1750.0,1570.0,1850.0,1710.0,1780.0,1690.0,1730.0,1600.0,1530.0,1650.0,1790.0,1740.0,1630.0,1480.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3360.0,3360.0,3360.0,3200.0,3140.0,2880.0,2720.0,2820.0,3360.0,3360.0,3200.0,2940.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,2950.0,2890.0,2660.0,2510.0,2600.0,3100.0,3100.0,2950.0,2710.0,2890.0,2890.0,2890.0,2750.0,2700.0,2480.0,2340.0,2420.0,2890.0,2890.0,2750.0,2530.0,2680.0,2680.0,2680.0,2550.0,2500.0,2300.0,2170.0,2240.0,2680.0,2680.0,2550.0,2350.0,2570.0,2570.0,2570.0,2450.0,2400.0,2210.0,2080.0,2160.0,2570.0,2570.0,2450.0,2250.0,2360.0,2360.0,2360.0,2250.0,2210.0,2020.0,1910.0,1980.0,2360.0,2360.0,2250.0,2070.0,2150.0,2150.0,2150.0,2050.0,2010.0,1850.0,1740.0,1800.0,2150.0,2150.0,2050.0,1890.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1860.0,1710.0,1620.0,1670.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1750.0,1790.0,1790.0,1790.0,1700.0,1670.0,1530.0,1450.0,1500.0,1790.0,1790.0,1700.0,1560.0,1580.0,1580.0,1580.0,1500.0,1470.0,1350.0,1280.0,1320.0,1580.0,1580.0,1500.0,1380.0]}},{"title":"Blight","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Blight\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[26661,20560,18368,15565,16008,14294,15253,14956,14091,14120,15352,16947,16459,16677,15125,18647,18614,24975,21463,16125,12811,10274,9979,10778,11751,10602,11803,12796,11748,10600,11898,11127,10140,9646,9683,9525,9445,8326,9125,10549,9892,10065,9612,10223,10831,9392,9083,8781,9513,8506,10135,12957,13167,11709,12031,12640,12652,11077,11456,12020,10435,10106,9406,8992,9588,8834,13259,14011,11025,10647,9395,8159,10521,7885,7729,8222,7853,6878,9986,15631,19627,21170,22637,27406,36809,15949,6946,4767,5660,10725,15844,11808,11717,8573,9329,9554,10481,9184,10081,10967,9835,17661,19641,25306,20186,22018,32633,27895,33472,22244,20799,11583,10594,9812,11137,13105,10076,10524,12989,11095],"flat_reference_value":16989.542399201033,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6100.0,5900.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,7100.0,7900.0,8400.0,8100.0,7500.0,6700.0,5700.0,6200.0,6000.0,7100.0,7300.0,7900.0,7400.0,8200.0,8800.0,8500.0,7800.0,6900.0,5900.0,6400.0,6200.0,7300.0,7600.0,8100.0,7700.0,8500.0,9100.0,8700.0,8000.0,7100.0,6100.0,6600.0,6300.0,7500.0,7800.0,8400.0,7900.0,8800.0,9500.0,9000.0,8200.0,7300.0,6300.0,6800.0,6500.0,7300.0,7600.0,8500.0,8200.0,9100.0,9800.0,9700.0,8800.0,7800.0,6900.0,7200.0,6900.0,8100.0,8300.0,8900.0,8400.0,9300.0,10000.0,9500.0,8700.0,7800.0,6700.0,7100.0,6800.0,8000.0,8200.0,8800.0,8300.0,9200.0,9900.0,9400.0,8600.0,7600.0,6600.0,7000.0,6700.0,7900.0,8100.0,8700.0,8200.0,9100.0,9800.0,9200.0,8400.0,7500.0,6500.0,6800.0,6600.0,7700.0,7900.0,8500.0,8000.0,8900.0,9500.0,9000.0,8300.0,7600.0,6500.0,6700.0,6300.0,7400.0,7600.0,8200.0,7700.0,8600.0,9200.0,8700.0,8000.0,7100.0,6100.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[11800.0,12100.0,13400.0,14200.0,15100.0,16400.0,17600.0,17100.0,15300.0,14400.0,13100.0,11200.0,12000.0,11900.0,14300.0,14500.0,15400.0,16700.0,17900.0,17400.0,15100.0,14200.0,12900.0,11000.0,11700.0,11500.0,13100.0,13900.0,14900.0,16200.0,17300.0,16900.0,14800.0,14100.0,12700.0,10900.0,11600.0,11400.0,13000.0,13800.0,14800.0,16300.0,17700.0,17200.0,14900.0,14000.0,12600.0,11100.0,11900.0,11700.0,14200.0,16800.0,18100.0,19500.0,21200.0,21600.0,19800.0,16400.0,14500.0,12800.0,13400.0,12900.0,14400.0,15200.0,16100.0,17500.0,18900.0,18400.0,15800.0,14500.0,13000.0,11500.0,12100.0,11600.0,12900.0,13600.0,14600.0,15900.0,17100.0,16600.0,14300.0,13300.0,11900.0,10400.0,11100.0,10700.0,12000.0,12700.0,13700.0,15000.0,16300.0,15800.0,13600.0,12500.0,11200.0,9800.0,10400.0,10100.0,11400.0,12100.0,13100.0,14400.0,15600.0,15100.0,13100.0,12100.0,12600.0,14800.0,12900.0,10200.0,11100.0,11700.0,12600.0,13800.0,14900.0,14400.0,12400.0,11400.0,10200.0,9100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[18200.0,19800.0,21500.0,22400.0,21800.0,16400.0,13900.0,14500.0,18900.0,22100.0,22800.0,15800.0,17900.0,19400.0,21800.0,22100.0,21300.0,15900.0,13500.0,14200.0,18600.0,21700.0,22300.0,15200.0,17200.0,18900.0,20900.0,21500.0,20400.0,15100.0,12800.0,13600.0,17800.0,20800.0,21200.0,14700.0,16800.0,18200.0,20100.0,20700.0,19800.0,14500.0,12200.0,13100.0,17200.0,20100.0,20500.0,14100.0,16200.0,17500.0,16100.0,15800.0,16900.0,13200.0,11800.0,12400.0,18200.0,19600.0,19900.0,13800.0,15700.0,16900.0,18800.0,19200.0,18100.0,13400.0,11400.0,12100.0,16200.0,18900.0,20100.0,14300.0,15100.0,16200.0,17900.0,18400.0,17200.0,12800.0,10900.0,11600.0,15400.0,17800.0,18200.0,12600.0,14200.0,15300.0,16900.0,17200.0,16100.0,11900.0,10200.0,10800.0,14400.0,16700.0,17100.0,11800.0,13300.0,14400.0,15800.0,16200.0,15100.0,11200.0,9600.0,10100.0,13500.0,15600.0,15900.0,11100.0,12600.0,13700.0,14900.0,15300.0,14200.0,10600.0,9100.0,9600.0,12800.0,14800.0,15100.0,10500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[5600.0,5700.0,6000.0,6100.0,6500.0,6800.0,6900.0,6400.0,5900.0,5800.0,5600.0,4900.0,5300.0,5400.0,5700.0,5800.0,6200.0,6500.0,6600.0,6100.0,5600.0,5500.0,5300.0,4600.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5400.0,5800.0,6100.0,6200.0,5700.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,4300.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,5500.0,5800.0,5800.0,5400.0,6200.0,5100.0,4700.0,4100.0,4500.0,4500.0,4900.0,5600.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,5200.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4000.0,4300.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,4800.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,3700.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,4700.0,4900.0,4800.0,4400.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3400.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4100.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3200.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,3800.0,3500.0,3800.0,3700.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9200.0,9400.0,9900.0,10200.0,10800.0,11200.0,11400.0,10900.0,10300.0,9900.0,9500.0,8600.0,9000.0,8900.0,9500.0,9700.0,10300.0,10700.0,10900.0,10400.0,9800.0,9500.0,9100.0,8200.0,8600.0,8300.0,8900.0,9000.0,9600.0,10000.0,10200.0,9700.0,9000.0,8800.0,8400.0,7600.0,8000.0,7700.0,8200.0,8300.0,8900.0,9300.0,9400.0,8900.0,8300.0,8100.0,7700.0,7000.0,7500.0,7300.0,7800.0,8600.0,9200.0,9300.0,9300.0,8800.0,8200.0,7900.0,7500.0,6900.0,7300.0,7000.0,7500.0,7600.0,8100.0,8400.0,8500.0,8000.0,7400.0,7200.0,6800.0,6200.0,6600.0,6300.0,6800.0,6900.0,7400.0,7600.0,7700.0,7200.0,6700.0,6500.0,6200.0,5600.0,6000.0,5800.0,6200.0,6300.0,6800.0,7000.0,7000.0,6600.0,6100.0,5900.0,5600.0,5100.0,5500.0,5300.0,5600.0,5700.0,6200.0,6400.0,6400.0,6000.0,5600.0,5400.0,5100.0,4700.0,5100.0,4900.0,5200.0,5300.0,5700.0,5900.0,5900.0,5500.0,5100.0,5000.0,4700.0,4400.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[8800.0,9600.0,12800.0,16800.0,21600.0,24000.0,23200.0,20800.0,16000.0,13600.0,10400.0,8800.0,9400.0,9700.0,13500.0,17600.0,22800.0,25300.0,24300.0,21000.0,16900.0,13700.0,11100.0,9200.0,9000.0,10500.0,13300.0,18200.0,23500.0,26000.0,24200.0,22600.0,16600.0,14800.0,10700.0,9500.0,9800.0,10200.0,14300.0,18100.0,23900.0,27500.0,25000.0,22400.0,19400.0,16300.0,11200.0,9400.0,13000.0,15000.0,21500.0,35000.0,42500.0,44000.0,38500.0,35000.0,25500.0,21000.0,16200.0,14800.0,11800.0,12900.0,18400.0,26000.0,32500.0,34500.0,30800.0,27600.0,21400.0,18300.0,14200.0,12200.0,10300.0,10900.0,15200.0,19600.0,25400.0,28200.0,26300.0,24800.0,18000.0,15300.0,11700.0,9900.0,10100.0,10600.0,14700.0,18600.0,23900.0,26400.0,25500.0,22800.0,17600.0,14900.0,11400.0,9700.0,9500.0,10300.0,13700.0,18000.0,23200.0,25700.0,24800.0,22300.0,17100.0,14500.0,11100.0,9400.0,8900.0,9700.0,12900.0,17000.0,21800.0,24200.0,23400.0,21000.0,16100.0,13700.0,10400.0,8800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2912.0,2784.0,3511.0,4253.0,4820.0,4895.0,5217.0,4863.0,4612.0,3928.0,3295.0,2598.0,2830.0,2715.0,3405.0,4021.0,4718.0,4760.0,5112.0,4905.0,4410.0,3975.0,3110.0,2659.0,2688.0,2791.0,3220.0,4087.0,4492.0,4815.0,4850.0,4688.0,4445.0,3762.0,3158.0,2495.0,2725.0,2618.0,3280.0,3865.0,4530.0,4580.0,4898.0,4572.0,4335.0,3690.0,3082.0,2448.0,2650.0,2585.0,4475.0,5420.0,6410.0,5825.0,4855.0,4610.0,4250.0,3725.0,3025.0,2380.0,2605.0,2520.0,3750.0,4470.0,4980.0,4825.0,4680.0,4385.0,4165.0,3530.0,2960.0,2345.0,2475.0,2538.0,2955.0,3732.0,4120.0,4410.0,4445.0,4290.0,4078.0,3455.0,2895.0,2290.0,2498.0,2405.0,2990.0,3535.0,4150.0,4185.0,4478.0,4195.0,3870.0,3485.0,2725.0,2335.0,2350.0,2428.0,2820.0,3575.0,3935.0,4215.0,4240.0,4105.0,3888.0,3300.0,2760.0,2185.0,2380.0,2295.0,2855.0,3370.0,3950.0,3990.0,4275.0,4010.0,3690.0,3325.0,2600.0,2135.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[14100.0,15600.0,18700.0,23400.0,25600.0,26300.0,22400.0,21100.0,18000.0,18300.0,15600.0,14200.0,14900.0,16300.0,20500.0,23800.0,28100.0,26500.0,24900.0,21200.0,19700.0,18400.0,17100.0,14500.0,15500.0,17200.0,20600.0,26000.0,29400.0,27800.0,26100.0,22300.0,20800.0,19300.0,18000.0,15100.0,16300.0,18000.0,21600.0,27300.0,29600.0,30400.0,25900.0,24500.0,20700.0,21300.0,18100.0,16600.0,19600.0,21700.0,27200.0,34500.0,39800.0,36900.0,32600.0,27900.0,26100.0,24200.0,22800.0,19000.0,20300.0,22400.0,26800.0,33900.0,38700.0,36100.0,33800.0,29100.0,27000.0,25100.0,23600.0,19800.0,20700.0,22800.0,27300.0,34400.0,39100.0,36800.0,34300.0,29600.0,27500.0,25500.0,24000.0,20100.0,20300.0,22300.0,26900.0,33700.0,38300.0,36200.0,33600.0,32400.0,26800.0,25200.0,23500.0,19900.0,19200.0,21200.0,25500.0,32000.0,36200.0,34300.0,31900.0,27600.0,25400.0,26800.0,21200.0,18700.0,18100.0,20000.0,24100.0,30100.0,34200.0,32300.0,30000.0,25900.0,24100.0,22500.0,21000.0,17700.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2600.0,2700.0,2950.0,3250.0,3600.0,3800.0,3850.0,3700.0,3350.0,3050.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2780.0,3040.0,3370.0,3700.0,3900.0,3970.0,3800.0,3470.0,3170.0,2900.0,2710.0,2870.0,2940.0,3220.0,3570.0,3920.0,4130.0,4200.0,4030.0,3680.0,3360.0,3080.0,2870.0,2950.0,3020.0,3310.0,3670.0,4030.0,4250.0,4320.0,4140.0,4500.0,3460.0,3170.0,2950.0,3360.0,3440.0,3770.0,4300.0,4800.0,5100.0,5200.0,5000.0,4500.0,4050.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,3280.0,3590.0,3980.0,4370.0,4600.0,4680.0,4480.0,4100.0,3740.0,3430.0,3200.0,3120.0,3190.0,3500.0,3880.0,4260.0,4480.0,4560.0,4370.0,3990.0,3650.0,3340.0,3120.0,3280.0,3360.0,3680.0,4080.0,4480.0,4720.0,4800.0,5400.0,4200.0,3840.0,3520.0,3280.0,3440.0,3530.0,3860.0,4280.0,4700.0,4960.0,5040.0,4830.0,4410.0,4030.0,3700.0,3440.0,3530.0,3610.0,3960.0,4390.0,4820.0,5070.0,5160.0,4950.0,4520.0,4130.0,3780.0,3530.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3250.0,3400.0,4050.0,4800.0,5400.0,5650.0,5850.0,5600.0,5000.0,4200.0,3500.0,3050.0,3120.0,3240.0,3900.0,4600.0,5150.0,5400.0,5600.0,5350.0,4750.0,3980.0,3350.0,2900.0,2960.0,3080.0,3670.0,4370.0,4900.0,5110.0,5300.0,5070.0,4520.0,3780.0,3200.0,2770.0,2810.0,2920.0,3480.0,4140.0,4660.0,4850.0,5030.0,4810.0,4290.0,3590.0,3030.0,2630.0,3100.0,3250.0,4650.0,5750.0,6200.0,6200.0,5850.0,5330.0,6200.0,4600.0,3360.0,2910.0,2890.0,3000.0,3570.0,4260.0,4790.0,4980.0,5170.0,4940.0,4410.0,3690.0,3120.0,2700.0,2660.0,2770.0,3290.0,3920.0,4410.0,4590.0,5470.0,5460.0,4060.0,3400.0,2870.0,2490.0,2510.0,2610.0,3100.0,3700.0,4160.0,4320.0,4490.0,4290.0,3830.0,3200.0,2710.0,2340.0,2580.0,2690.0,3200.0,3810.0,4280.0,4450.0,6940.0,6190.0,4540.0,3300.0,2790.0,2410.0,2430.0,2530.0,3010.0,3580.0,4030.0,4190.0,4350.0,4160.0,3710.0,3100.0,2620.0,2270.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[1512.0,1470.0,1785.0,2205.0,2520.0,2835.0,3045.0,2940.0,2415.0,1995.0,1722.0,1575.0,1656.0,1610.0,1955.0,2415.0,2760.0,3105.0,3535.0,3670.0,3045.0,2185.0,1886.0,1725.0,1800.0,1750.0,2125.0,2625.0,3000.0,3975.0,4325.0,4000.0,2875.0,2375.0,2050.0,1875.0,1872.0,1820.0,2210.0,2730.0,3120.0,3510.0,3770.0,3640.0,2990.0,2470.0,2132.0,1950.0,1800.0,1750.0,2275.0,2875.0,3400.0,3975.0,4425.0,4200.0,3275.0,2375.0,2050.0,1875.0,1584.0,1540.0,1870.0,2310.0,2640.0,3270.0,3590.0,3380.0,2530.0,2090.0,1804.0,1650.0,1476.0,1435.0,1743.0,2153.0,2460.0,2768.0,2973.0,2870.0,2358.0,1948.0,1681.0,1538.0,1404.0,1365.0,1858.0,2048.0,2340.0,2633.0,2828.0,2730.0,2243.0,1853.0,1599.0,1463.0,1368.0,1330.0,1615.0,1995.0,2280.0,3365.0,4355.0,4460.0,3385.0,2305.0,1558.0,1425.0,1296.0,1260.0,1530.0,1890.0,2160.0,2430.0,2610.0,2520.0,2070.0,1710.0,1476.0,1350.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[17000.0,17500.0,19500.0,20500.0,21500.0,22500.0,24000.0,23000.0,21500.0,20000.0,20500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,20500.0,21500.0,22500.0,23500.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20500.0,19000.0,19000.0,19500.0,21500.0,22500.0,24500.0,24500.0,26000.0,25000.0,23500.0,22000.0,21000.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26500.0,25500.0,24000.0,22500.0,21500.0,20000.0,20500.0,21000.0,24000.0,24500.0,25500.0,29500.0,29500.0,28000.0,26500.0,29500.0,26500.0,23500.0,21000.0,21500.0,23500.0,24500.0,25500.0,26500.0,30000.0,28500.0,26500.0,24500.0,22500.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,22500.0,23500.0,24500.0,26500.0,31000.0,29500.0,27500.0,25000.0,23000.0,21500.0,45000.0,34000.0,30000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30500.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,23000.0,21500.0,20500.0,21000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25500.0,23500.0,21500.0,20000.0,19500.0,20000.0,22000.0,42000.0,30000.0,27500.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2500.0,2600.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2700.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,2800.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,2900.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3000.0,2700.0,2900.0,3000.0,3500.0,4200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3600.0,3300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[9860.0,9780.0,11450.0,12180.0,13720.0,14750.0,13680.0,14300.0,15850.0,14250.0,11750.0,10150.0,10320.0,10210.0,11830.0,12610.0,14380.0,15190.0,14020.0,15110.0,16380.0,14630.0,12300.0,10540.0,11210.0,10980.0,12760.0,13820.0,15380.0,16470.0,15120.0,16210.0,17870.0,18640.0,13360.0,11230.0,11580.0,11320.0,13280.0,14220.0,16050.0,17340.0,15680.0,16820.0,18410.0,16990.0,13850.0,11730.0,13750.0,13480.0,16120.0,17820.0,19620.0,20470.0,19380.0,20710.0,23500.0,19850.0,16280.0,13720.0,14620.0,14110.0,17220.0,18050.0,20280.0,21930.0,20010.0,21120.0,23180.0,20970.0,17140.0,14700.0,15450.0,14930.0,17850.0,19030.0,21280.0,23120.0,21210.0,22990.0,25340.0,22560.0,18380.0,15420.0,15810.0,15320.0,18220.0,19460.0,22050.0,23780.0,21720.0,22810.0,25490.0,23010.0,18790.0,15850.0,16240.0,15760.0,18690.0,19930.0,22580.0,24330.0,22270.0,23460.0,26820.0,23910.0,19230.0,16280.0,17560.0,17030.0,20210.0,21740.0,24620.0,26270.0,23980.0,25810.0,29210.0,26360.0,20910.0,17480.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[6300.0,6000.0,6600.0,7000.0,7700.0,8400.0,9000.0,8700.0,8000.0,7100.0,6500.0,6200.0,6200.0,5900.0,6500.0,6900.0,7600.0,8200.0,8800.0,8500.0,7800.0,7000.0,6400.0,6100.0,6000.0,5700.0,6300.0,6700.0,7400.0,8000.0,8500.0,8200.0,7500.0,6800.0,6200.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,6100.0,6500.0,7200.0,7800.0,8300.0,8000.0,7400.0,6700.0,6100.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,6500.0,7100.0,8000.0,8900.0,9500.0,9200.0,8300.0,7400.0,6800.0,6400.0,6200.0,5900.0,6600.0,7100.0,7900.0,8600.0,9100.0,8800.0,8000.0,7200.0,6600.0,6200.0,6000.0,5700.0,6400.0,6900.0,7600.0,8200.0,8700.0,8400.0,7700.0,6900.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,6200.0,6600.0,7300.0,7900.0,8400.0,8100.0,7400.0,6700.0,6100.0,5800.0,5700.0,5400.0,6100.0,6500.0,7200.0,7800.0,8300.0,8000.0,7300.0,6600.0,6000.0,5700.0,5600.0,5300.0,6000.0,6400.0,7100.0,7700.0,8200.0,7900.0,7200.0,6500.0,5900.0,5600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2720.0,2880.0,3200.0,3520.0,3840.0,3840.0,3680.0,3360.0,3200.0,3040.0,2880.0,2720.0,2635.0,2790.0,3100.0,3410.0,3720.0,3720.0,3565.0,3255.0,3100.0,2945.0,2790.0,2635.0,2550.0,2700.0,3000.0,3300.0,3600.0,3600.0,3450.0,3150.0,3000.0,2850.0,2700.0,2550.0,2465.0,2610.0,2900.0,3190.0,3480.0,3480.0,3335.0,3045.0,2900.0,2755.0,2610.0,2465.0,2805.0,2970.0,3630.0,3993.0,4356.0,3960.0,3795.0,3465.0,3300.0,3135.0,2970.0,2805.0,2635.0,2790.0,3100.0,3410.0,3720.0,3720.0,3565.0,3255.0,3100.0,2945.0,2790.0,2635.0,2465.0,2610.0,2900.0,3190.0,3480.0,3480.0,3335.0,3045.0,2900.0,2755.0,2610.0,2465.0,2295.0,2430.0,2700.0,2970.0,3240.0,3240.0,3105.0,2835.0,2700.0,2565.0,2430.0,2295.0,2125.0,2250.0,2500.0,2750.0,3000.0,3000.0,2875.0,2625.0,2500.0,2375.0,2250.0,2125.0,1870.0,1980.0,2200.0,2420.0,2640.0,2640.0,2530.0,2310.0,2200.0,2090.0,1980.0,1870.0]}},{"title":"Bobby (1973 film)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Bobby (1973 film)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15413,12996,12029,11750,13845,13520,15011,13006,14012,12210,16534,13697,14891,14603,14354,12896,11708,12445,14062,12438,12485,12341,11291,15436,13965,12956,14632,11529,12092,13186,15385,13514,12372,14170,10939,11912,11285,8951,9597,8904,10141,10650,12115,13583,13351,12198,14187,13697,15308,13081,18664,66902,84543,18158,16003,13908,13792,11635,12732,15247,15390,12414,12990,13309,16482,14951,15717,19462,12154,12390,10153,10169,11467,11132,12389,14288,12190,11100,13176,12613,11884,11127,11044,12304,14571,15198,13513,10777,13503,13641,14739,15039,14961,12299,11627,19486,16989,11359,10759,12136,11693,11151,13633,15171,13681,13262,12400,21143,14303,10546,10147,10768,9952,11468,12599,13267,11238,15779,13381,13744],"flat_reference_value":16983.056663115978,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[19000.0,17500.0,18000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,18500.0,20500.0,19500.0,18500.0,20000.0,20500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,19500.0,18500.0,19500.0,20500.0,22000.0,20500.0,19500.0,24000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20500.0,19500.0,20500.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,29000.0,27000.0,23000.0,23500.0,23000.0,21000.0,21500.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22500.0,27000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,24500.0,23500.0,26000.0,55000.0,180000.0,60000.0,42000.0,36000.0,42000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26500.0,31000.0,30000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,32000.0,26000.0,25500.0,27500.0,27000.0,31000.0,25500.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25500.0,26500.0,32000.0,26000.0,25500.0,27500.0,30000.0,27500.0,26000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26500.0,28000.0,45000.0,31000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28500.0,26000.0,26500.0,29000.0,27500.0,26500.0,27000.0,28000.0,33000.0,28000.0,27500.0,40000.0,31000.0,27000.0,27500.0,30500.0,28000.0,27000.0,27500.0,28500.0,33000.0,28000.0,27500.0,29500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[9850.0,9120.0,9480.0,9210.0,9760.0,9540.0,10120.0,10350.0,10890.0,11240.0,10980.0,11650.0,16840.0,13920.0,12150.0,11780.0,12340.0,12090.0,12680.0,12450.0,12910.0,12560.0,12180.0,14620.0,13140.0,11980.0,12640.0,12390.0,12870.0,13450.0,14120.0,13280.0,15420.0,17680.0,13540.0,13890.0,13620.0,12240.0,13180.0,12950.0,13480.0,13120.0,13690.0,13840.0,15620.0,14150.0,13420.0,13960.0,13780.0,12890.0,15940.0,48250.0,72400.0,26380.0,20150.0,21420.0,24180.0,16840.0,15620.0,18290.0,17640.0,18520.0,14860.0,16480.0,15920.0,14350.0,14120.0,13760.0,14290.0,13480.0,12940.0,13560.0,13680.0,17150.0,13920.0,15840.0,13180.0,12450.0,12690.0,12520.0,14160.0,12780.0,11960.0,12480.0,14520.0,12180.0,11940.0,12360.0,11850.0,11620.0,12240.0,12490.0,23450.0,16580.0,12140.0,15920.0,13240.0,11480.0,11690.0,12150.0,11320.0,10980.0,11420.0,11650.0,12580.0,11390.0,11840.0,26480.0,15120.0,11260.0,11080.0,11540.0,10890.0,10640.0,11120.0,11280.0,11960.0,10850.0,10720.0,12340.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[21500.0,20200.0,19800.0,18900.0,20400.0,19100.0,20300.0,19600.0,22100.0,21800.0,20500.0,21200.0,21900.0,19500.0,18800.0,18200.0,19700.0,19100.0,19400.0,18900.0,21400.0,20800.0,19600.0,20200.0,20900.0,18600.0,18100.0,17800.0,18400.0,17900.0,18200.0,17700.0,20100.0,19500.0,18400.0,18900.0,19800.0,17600.0,17200.0,16900.0,17800.0,17100.0,17500.0,17300.0,19200.0,18800.0,17900.0,18400.0,18900.0,17800.0,21200.0,52400.0,84600.0,31200.0,24100.0,23500.0,24800.0,21600.0,20800.0,22400.0,20700.0,18500.0,18100.0,23900.0,21400.0,18900.0,18400.0,17800.0,19200.0,18500.0,17600.0,18100.0,18700.0,16900.0,16500.0,18400.0,17600.0,16200.0,16800.0,16400.0,17900.0,17100.0,16300.0,16900.0,18200.0,16100.0,15800.0,16900.0,16400.0,15600.0,16100.0,16000.0,23800.0,22100.0,18500.0,17400.0,17800.0,16200.0,15700.0,16800.0,16100.0,15200.0,15600.0,15300.0,16700.0,16200.0,15500.0,15900.0,16400.0,15100.0,14800.0,15700.0,15200.0,14500.0,14900.0,14600.0,15800.0,15300.0,14700.0,15200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[44000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,41000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0,36000.0,95000.0,78000.0,48000.0,42000.0,39000.0,40000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,30000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,34000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,37000.0,42000.0,85000.0,105000.0,55000.0,50000.0,49000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,56000.0,50000.0,44000.0,44000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,47000.0,41000.0,40000.0,47000.0,43000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,48000.0,39000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4600.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4500.0,4000.0,3900.0,4400.0,5300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,4800.0,4100.0,3900.0,4500.0,4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,4100.0,3800.0,4000.0,4600.0,3900.0,3800.0,4400.0,4000.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,4400.0,3800.0,3600.0,4200.0,3900.0,3600.0,3900.0,9500.0,21000.0,7200.0,4300.0,4400.0,6800.0,4600.0,4200.0,4500.0,4000.0,3700.0,3800.0,5200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,4200.0,3700.0,3500.0,4100.0,3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,4600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3900.0,3400.0,3200.0,3900.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,4400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,5400.0,3700.0,3300.0,4000.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,4400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,4100.0,3600.0,3600.0,12500.0,4300.0,3300.0,3400.0,4300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3900.0,3300.0,3100.0,4100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4321.0,3498.0,3812.0,3590.0,3725.0,3402.0,3555.0,3689.0,4021.0,3854.0,3660.0,3945.0,4102.0,3275.0,3550.0,3318.0,3456.0,3189.0,3320.0,3487.0,3715.0,3593.0,3421.0,3788.0,3850.0,3095.0,3355.0,3120.0,3298.0,3015.0,3152.0,3280.0,3510.0,3402.0,3225.0,3580.0,3985.0,3210.0,3455.0,3288.0,3395.0,3140.0,3275.0,3390.0,3645.0,3520.0,3315.0,3720.0,4210.0,3685.0,3950.0,5830.0,34270.0,11850.0,7120.0,6150.0,5400.0,4920.0,4650.0,4880.0,5012.0,4125.0,4580.0,7850.0,5120.0,4350.0,4280.0,4525.0,5160.0,4640.0,4390.0,4715.0,4720.0,3810.0,4195.0,6240.0,4410.0,3985.0,3850.0,4025.0,4680.0,4215.0,3980.0,4330.0,4615.0,3760.0,4120.0,5580.0,4350.0,4060.0,4185.0,4320.0,9280.0,4890.0,4425.0,4650.0,4380.0,3425.0,3785.0,4980.0,3890.0,3520.0,3615.0,3740.0,4150.0,3825.0,3550.0,3910.0,4025.0,2985.0,3350.0,4520.0,3510.0,3185.0,3260.0,3385.0,3820.0,3495.0,3220.0,3585.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[7200.0,7600.0,6800.0,6800.0,7200.0,6800.0,6800.0,7200.0,7900.0,7600.0,7900.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,7400.0,7400.0,7800.0,7400.0,7400.0,7800.0,8600.0,8200.0,8600.0,8200.0,8400.0,8800.0,8000.0,8000.0,8400.0,8000.0,8000.0,8400.0,9200.0,8800.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,9400.0,8600.0,8600.0,9000.0,8600.0,8600.0,9000.0,9900.0,9500.0,9900.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,34000.0,15000.0,11500.0,14000.0,18000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,10000.0,10500.0,9500.0,11000.0,11500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,9600.0,10100.0,9100.0,10600.0,9600.0,9100.0,9100.0,9600.0,10600.0,10100.0,10600.0,10100.0,9300.0,9800.0,8800.0,9800.0,9300.0,8800.0,8800.0,9300.0,13500.0,10300.0,10300.0,9800.0,9000.0,9500.0,8600.0,9500.0,9000.0,8600.0,8600.0,9000.0,9900.0,9500.0,9900.0,13500.0,10000.0,8900.0,8100.0,9400.0,8500.0,8100.0,8100.0,8500.0,9400.0,8900.0,9400.0,8900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3600.0,3312.0,3528.0,3780.0,3600.0,3888.0,3672.0,3420.0,4140.0,3780.0,3420.0,3888.0,4200.0,3864.0,4116.0,4410.0,4200.0,4536.0,4284.0,3990.0,4830.0,4410.0,3990.0,4536.0,4800.0,4416.0,4704.0,5040.0,4800.0,5184.0,4896.0,4560.0,5520.0,5040.0,4560.0,5184.0,5400.0,4968.0,5292.0,5670.0,5400.0,5832.0,5508.0,5130.0,6210.0,5670.0,5130.0,5832.0,6200.0,5704.0,6076.0,62000.0,85000.0,24000.0,15000.0,11500.0,14000.0,10500.0,9200.0,9800.0,7000.0,6400.0,6900.0,13000.0,7200.0,7800.0,7300.0,6800.0,10500.0,7600.0,6800.0,7800.0,7600.0,7000.0,7450.0,10500.0,7700.0,8300.0,7800.0,7200.0,9000.0,8000.0,7200.0,8300.0,8400.0,7700.0,8200.0,11500.0,8500.0,9200.0,8600.0,8000.0,35000.0,16000.0,8200.0,11000.0,8800.0,8100.0,8600.0,12000.0,8900.0,9500.0,9000.0,8400.0,10500.0,9300.0,8400.0,22000.0,8200.0,7500.0,8000.0,11000.0,8200.0,8900.0,8400.0,7800.0,9500.0,8600.0,7800.0,8900.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1980.0,1850.0,2100.0,1950.0,2150.0,2050.0,1900.0,2000.0,2150.0,1950.0,1800.0,2200.0,2050.0,1950.0,2150.0,2050.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,2150.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2350.0,2150.0,2050.0,2250.0,2150.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2700.0,2500.0,2250.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2350.0,2350.0,2450.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2450.0,2400.0,2850.0,2500.0,2450.0,2950.0,9500.0,21500.0,4600.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,2650.0,2850.0,2650.0,2550.0,2700.0,3350.0,3650.0,3100.0,2850.0,3050.0,3150.0,2950.0,2800.0,3050.0,2750.0,5600.0,3600.0,3800.0,3650.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3050.0,2950.0,3100.0,3550.0,3600.0,3350.0,3250.0,3400.0,6300.0,5000.0,3450.0,4600.0,4400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3950.0,3750.0,3550.0,3400.0,3600.0,3750.0,3550.0,3500.0,6800.0,3850.0,3700.0,3800.0,4350.0,4150.0,3950.0,3800.0,4000.0,4150.0,3950.0,3850.0,4250.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[8740.0,8830.0,9840.0,10030.0,9200.0,8560.0,7910.0,8000.0,10280.0,9940.0,9660.0,8280.0,8360.0,12450.0,10420.0,9590.0,8800.0,8180.0,7570.0,7660.0,9860.0,9500.0,9240.0,7920.0,8080.0,8160.0,9100.0,9270.0,8500.0,7910.0,7310.0,7400.0,11260.0,9980.0,8930.0,7650.0,7790.0,7870.0,8770.0,8940.0,8200.0,7630.0,7050.0,7130.0,9250.0,8860.0,8610.0,7380.0,7600.0,7680.0,10500.0,46000.0,42000.0,15000.0,8900.0,6960.0,9040.0,8640.0,8400.0,7200.0,7320.0,7390.0,8240.0,9890.0,8400.0,7160.0,6620.0,6700.0,9230.0,8320.0,8090.0,6930.0,7030.0,7100.0,7920.0,9570.0,8100.0,6880.0,6360.0,6440.0,8920.0,7990.0,7770.0,6660.0,6750.0,6820.0,7610.0,9250.0,7800.0,6600.0,6110.0,6180.0,19800.0,11670.0,7460.0,6390.0,6560.0,6620.0,7380.0,9020.0,7600.0,6420.0,5930.0,6000.0,8400.0,7450.0,9750.0,14200.0,6270.0,6340.0,7060.0,8690.0,7300.0,6140.0,5680.0,5740.0,8100.0,7130.0,6930.0,5940.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,5100.0,11800.0,8700.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4900.0,10200.0,7700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,6300.0,10700.0,8100.0,4700.0,4500.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4700.0,5400.0,10300.0,8000.0,5000.0,4800.0,5100.0,6200.0,6500.0,6300.0,9200.0,6400.0,5500.0,6100.0,16500.0,9800.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,5500.0,5700.0,5400.0,5100.0,5000.0,5400.0,6100.0,14200.0,9000.0,5600.0,5300.0,5500.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,5400.0,8800.0,6200.0,6600.0,12600.0,9600.0,6000.0,5700.0,6100.0,6400.0,6700.0,8500.0,7000.0,6200.0,6500.0,7100.0,19500.0,24000.0,6700.0,6400.0,6700.0,7000.0,7600.0,20500.0,9000.0,7100.0,11800.0,7800.0,16500.0,12800.0,7100.0,6700.0,7000.0,7300.0,7700.0,7500.0,7100.0,6900.0,7300.0,8000.0,16000.0,12500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,3200.0,1900.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,1500.0,1100.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,900.0,900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[245.0,272.0,251.0,236.0,258.0,512.0,263.0,249.0,460.0,267.0,274.0,435.0,232.0,254.0,238.0,240.0,259.0,505.0,254.0,241.0,448.0,248.0,255.0,421.0,219.0,241.0,226.0,232.0,249.0,496.0,244.0,236.0,439.0,239.0,246.0,405.0,206.0,228.0,214.0,268.0,312.0,489.0,236.0,227.0,428.0,231.0,238.0,392.0,221.0,234.0,226.0,7480.0,6120.0,4980.0,1260.0,860.0,720.0,560.0,480.0,610.0,260.0,248.0,236.0,2140.0,1080.0,1860.0,420.0,340.0,620.0,310.0,322.0,525.0,212.0,224.0,215.0,1040.0,520.0,1340.0,280.0,255.0,480.0,245.0,252.0,415.0,218.0,230.0,244.0,2780.0,1490.0,2380.0,420.0,330.0,720.0,345.0,332.0,540.0,204.0,218.0,207.0,960.0,520.0,1280.0,262.0,248.0,458.0,236.0,244.0,398.0,196.0,210.0,201.0,905.0,485.0,1190.0,248.0,236.0,438.0,226.0,234.0,378.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[440.0,410.0,480.0,450.0,470.0,430.0,450.0,480.0,510.0,490.0,460.0,500.0,520.0,480.0,510.0,540.0,530.0,500.0,550.0,580.0,560.0,620.0,590.0,550.0,570.0,530.0,560.0,590.0,600.0,550.0,580.0,650.0,900.0,800.0,700.0,640.0,620.0,580.0,610.0,650.0,620.0,590.0,630.0,660.0,700.0,680.0,650.0,690.0,720.0,700.0,760.0,1500.0,6500.0,1600.0,1050.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,1000.0,1200.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,730.0,760.0,720.0,800.0,700.0,680.0,720.0,1000.0,850.0,760.0,730.0,720.0,750.0,800.0,760.0,820.0,800.0,1300.0,1050.0,1200.0,1050.0,850.0,800.0,820.0,1500.0,850.0,950.0,1300.0,1050.0,850.0,780.0,900.0,1050.0,750.0,720.0,700.0,740.0,760.0,730.0,780.0,720.0,690.0,710.0,850.0,900.0,700.0,680.0,660.0,690.0,720.0,680.0,740.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[420.0,380.0,400.0,390.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,420.0,410.0,390.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,400.0,390.0,370.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,390.0,380.0,360.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,320.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,420.0,2600.0,1100.0,650.0,500.0,450.0,480.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,390.0,370.0,380.0,420.0,360.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,360.0,340.0,330.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,300.0,330.0,320.0,320.0,340.0,330.0,310.0,320.0,320.0,300.0,290.0,310.0,330.0,430.0,360.0,340.0,420.0,360.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,280.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,310.0,300.0,280.0,290.0,290.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,260.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,280.0]}},{"title":"List of FTP commands","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"List of FTP commands\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[9795,10667,10243,10152,10120,9715,8595,9431,9671,10154,10825,11377,11420,11402,12599,10576,11803,10245,9512,10141,11054,12160,12754,10178,11327,10689,12626,13268,13386,11404,10976,10021,9622,11206,10432,9234,10067,9642,10983,11210,10917,8986,9517,8739,9435,10846,10721,9128,10199,9478,9485,10575,8051,7615,6842,6485,7060,7875,8382,7971,7065,6666,7390,6454,6091,6881,6740,6128,5557,6309,6537,5486,5846,5390,5565,4957,5033,5082,4587,4904,4846,5600,5116,4405,5360,5178,5850,4886,5277,4582,4580,4995,4530,5332,5407,4677,5462,5274,5654,5425,6135,5024,5244,4194,4285,4919,4997,5103,5163,4821,4797,3909,3601,2839,2974,2806,3148,3469,3133,2956],"flat_reference_value":17038.868256493108,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6200.0,6500.0,7100.0,6900.0,6700.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,6500.0,7100.0,6800.0,5600.0,6100.0,6400.0,6900.0,6600.0,6500.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,6300.0,6800.0,6500.0,5400.0,5900.0,6100.0,6500.0,6300.0,6200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6200.0,5100.0,5600.0,5700.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,5200.0,5000.0,5200.0,5600.0,6100.0,5800.0,4800.0,5300.0,5500.0,5900.0,6100.0,5900.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,5800.0,6200.0,5900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,5400.0,5700.0,5500.0,4600.0,4800.0,4900.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4600.0,4900.0,5200.0,5000.0,4200.0,4400.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,4100.0,4400.0,4200.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3700.0,4000.0,3800.0,3200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[14620.0,14480.0,16350.0,15810.0,14950.0,13420.0,12680.0,12890.0,14310.0,15740.0,15120.0,12340.0,13380.0,13150.0,15020.0,14390.0,13760.0,12280.0,11650.0,11820.0,13190.0,14560.0,13940.0,11320.0,12240.0,11980.0,13690.0,13210.0,12540.0,11190.0,10680.0,10850.0,12040.0,13380.0,12760.0,10410.0,11250.0,11040.0,12580.0,12150.0,11520.0,10290.0,9840.0,9910.0,11120.0,12310.0,11680.0,9580.0,10420.0,10290.0,11340.0,11480.0,10890.0,9760.0,9210.0,9150.0,10280.0,11290.0,10740.0,8920.0,9540.0,9380.0,10690.0,10310.0,9680.0,8690.0,8240.0,8350.0,9320.0,10240.0,9810.0,8050.0,8640.0,8490.0,9620.0,9210.0,8740.0,7850.0,7420.0,7560.0,8410.0,9180.0,8790.0,7080.0,7490.0,7210.0,7980.0,7420.0,6950.0,6120.0,5740.0,5810.0,6390.0,6920.0,6540.0,5280.0,5690.0,5540.0,6120.0,5890.0,5460.0,4780.0,4510.0,4560.0,5040.0,5490.0,5180.0,4210.0,4520.0,4390.0,4880.0,4690.0,4380.0,3890.0,3680.0,3710.0,4120.0,4490.0,4240.0,3480.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[27200.0,29800.0,31500.0,30900.0,28400.0,24100.0,22300.0,23600.0,28900.0,32100.0,31400.0,22800.0,25700.0,27600.0,29900.0,28500.0,26100.0,22400.0,20800.0,22100.0,26700.0,29800.0,29200.0,21100.0,23900.0,25800.0,27700.0,26600.0,24300.0,20900.0,19400.0,20700.0,25100.0,27900.0,26800.0,19600.0,22300.0,23900.0,25800.0,24700.0,22600.0,19200.0,17800.0,19100.0,23400.0,25900.0,24800.0,17900.0,20800.0,22400.0,21600.0,22900.0,20700.0,17700.0,16500.0,17600.0,21300.0,23700.0,22900.0,16700.0,19200.0,20600.0,22100.0,21000.0,19300.0,16300.0,15100.0,16200.0,19700.0,21800.0,20900.0,15300.0,17400.0,18500.0,19900.0,18800.0,17200.0,14600.0,13700.0,14500.0,17400.0,19200.0,18500.0,13400.0,15200.0,16100.0,17300.0,16400.0,14900.0,12700.0,11800.0,12600.0,15100.0,16600.0,15900.0,11500.0,13300.0,14100.0,15100.0,14400.0,13100.0,11200.0,10400.0,11100.0,13300.0,14700.0,14000.0,10200.0,11800.0,12600.0,13500.0,12900.0,11700.0,10000.0,9300.0,9900.0,11900.0,13100.0,12500.0,9100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[16000.0,16400.0,17300.0,16500.0,16000.0,14900.0,14400.0,14700.0,16000.0,16800.0,16800.0,14100.0,15000.0,15300.0,16200.0,15400.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13800.0,15000.0,15700.0,15700.0,13200.0,13600.0,13900.0,14600.0,13900.0,13500.0,12600.0,12200.0,12400.0,13500.0,14200.0,14200.0,11900.0,12600.0,12800.0,13500.0,12900.0,12500.0,11600.0,11300.0,11500.0,12500.0,13100.0,13100.0,11000.0,12000.0,12200.0,13500.0,13300.0,12600.0,11300.0,10900.0,11000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12400.0,10500.0,10800.0,11000.0,11600.0,11000.0,10600.0,9800.0,9500.0,9700.0,10500.0,11000.0,11000.0,9200.0,9600.0,9800.0,10300.0,9800.0,9500.0,8800.0,8500.0,8700.0,9500.0,9900.0,9900.0,8300.0,8700.0,8800.0,9300.0,8800.0,8500.0,7900.0,7600.0,7800.0,8500.0,8900.0,8900.0,7400.0,7700.0,7800.0,8200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7000.0,6700.0,6900.0,7500.0,7800.0,7800.0,6600.0,6800.0,6900.0,7200.0,6800.0,6600.0,6100.0,5900.0,6000.0,6500.0,6800.0,6800.0,5800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[18500.0,18800.0,19500.0,18500.0,18200.0,17200.0,16200.0,16800.0,17500.0,18000.0,18200.0,15500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18200.0,16500.0,16800.0,15500.0,14800.0,15200.0,15800.0,16500.0,16500.0,13800.0,15800.0,15000.0,16000.0,15200.0,15000.0,13800.0,13500.0,13600.0,13800.0,14800.0,14500.0,12000.0,14000.0,13200.0,14000.0,13200.0,13000.0,11800.0,12000.0,11600.0,12000.0,12800.0,12500.0,10500.0,12200.0,11800.0,12000.0,12200.0,12000.0,11200.0,10800.0,10300.0,10600.0,11000.0,10800.0,9500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10800.0,9800.0,9600.0,9000.0,8600.0,8600.0,8800.0,9200.0,9200.0,8000.0,8800.0,8500.0,9200.0,8300.0,8300.0,7700.0,7300.0,7500.0,7600.0,7900.0,7900.0,6800.0,7600.0,7300.0,7900.0,7100.0,7200.0,6600.0,6400.0,6500.0,6600.0,6900.0,6800.0,5900.0,6700.0,6400.0,6600.0,6300.0,6300.0,5700.0,5700.0,5600.0,5700.0,6000.0,5800.0,5200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5800.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4900.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3950.0,4640.0,4820.0,4390.0,4090.0,3660.0,3350.0,3610.0,4560.0,4750.0,4560.0,3200.0,3930.0,4600.0,4750.0,4320.0,4000.0,3620.0,3340.0,3580.0,4500.0,4680.0,4520.0,3150.0,3700.0,4300.0,4480.0,4080.0,3800.0,3430.0,3120.0,3350.0,4230.0,4400.0,4240.0,2950.0,3820.0,4500.0,4650.0,4230.0,3940.0,3520.0,3240.0,3520.0,4400.0,4560.0,4400.0,3070.0,4100.0,4800.0,5450.0,5200.0,4900.0,4400.0,4050.0,4300.0,5000.0,5250.0,5000.0,3500.0,5400.0,5900.0,5750.0,5300.0,5000.0,5400.0,6050.0,5300.0,5500.0,5700.0,5450.0,3900.0,4300.0,4870.0,5000.0,4500.0,4200.0,3800.0,3500.0,3700.0,4600.0,4780.0,4600.0,3300.0,3800.0,4400.0,4600.0,4100.0,4230.0,3970.0,3500.0,3600.0,4260.0,4400.0,4200.0,3000.0,3400.0,3900.0,4060.0,3700.0,3400.0,3100.0,2930.0,3000.0,3800.0,3950.0,3800.0,2700.0,3100.0,3580.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,3470.0,3600.0,3500.0,2500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[6230.0,5980.0,6350.0,5820.0,5405.0,4680.0,4290.0,4670.0,5780.0,6310.0,5975.0,4920.0,6010.0,5750.0,6120.0,5590.0,5200.0,4510.0,4150.0,4495.0,5580.0,6095.0,5760.0,4740.0,5795.0,5540.0,5890.0,5385.0,5010.0,4345.0,3985.0,4330.0,5375.0,5870.0,5545.0,4560.0,5570.0,5325.0,5675.0,5175.0,4820.0,4175.0,3830.0,4165.0,5170.0,5645.0,5330.0,4385.0,5680.0,5430.0,6550.0,6185.0,5450.0,4260.0,3905.0,4250.0,5275.0,5760.0,5435.0,4475.0,6050.0,5730.0,5560.0,5070.0,4725.0,4090.0,3750.0,4085.0,5070.0,5535.0,5220.0,4295.0,5015.0,4790.0,5110.0,4655.0,4340.0,3755.0,3445.0,3750.0,4655.0,5085.0,4795.0,3945.0,4680.0,4470.0,4765.0,4345.0,4050.0,3505.0,3215.0,3495.0,4345.0,4745.0,4475.0,3685.0,4460.0,4255.0,4540.0,4135.0,3855.0,3335.0,3060.0,3330.0,4140.0,4520.0,4260.0,3505.0,4235.0,4040.0,4310.0,3930.0,3665.0,3170.0,2905.0,3165.0,3930.0,4295.0,4045.0,3330.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[8350.0,8800.0,9200.0,9000.0,8500.0,8100.0,7600.0,7750.0,9050.0,9300.0,8800.0,7500.0,8750.0,9200.0,9600.0,9500.0,8900.0,8450.0,7900.0,8150.0,9500.0,9700.0,9150.0,7850.0,9200.0,9700.0,10150.0,10000.0,9500.0,8950.0,8300.0,8550.0,10000.0,10250.0,9700.0,8350.0,9600.0,10100.0,10600.0,10400.0,9900.0,9300.0,8700.0,8900.0,10400.0,10700.0,10100.0,8700.0,10300.0,10500.0,12300.0,12600.0,11900.0,11000.0,9600.0,9400.0,10900.0,11400.0,10800.0,9200.0,10700.0,11200.0,11800.0,11550.0,11000.0,10350.0,9700.0,9900.0,11550.0,11900.0,11250.0,9700.0,10400.0,10900.0,11450.0,11250.0,10700.0,10050.0,9400.0,9650.0,11250.0,11550.0,10950.0,9400.0,10050.0,10500.0,11000.0,10800.0,10300.0,9700.0,9050.0,9250.0,10800.0,11100.0,10550.0,9050.0,9650.0,10100.0,10550.0,10350.0,9900.0,9300.0,8700.0,8900.0,10350.0,10650.0,10100.0,8700.0,9150.0,9600.0,10000.0,9850.0,9400.0,8850.0,8250.0,8450.0,9850.0,10150.0,9600.0,8250.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1580.0,1710.0,1840.0,1790.0,1750.0,1610.0,1540.0,1660.0,1880.0,1930.0,1810.0,1510.0,1680.0,1730.0,1910.0,1840.0,1770.0,1650.0,1590.0,1690.0,1940.0,1990.0,1900.0,1560.0,1730.0,1810.0,1960.0,1920.0,1840.0,1700.0,1640.0,1740.0,1990.0,2040.0,1950.0,1610.0,1770.0,1860.0,2010.0,1970.0,1890.0,1750.0,1690.0,1790.0,2040.0,2090.0,2000.0,1660.0,1920.0,2010.0,2180.0,2160.0,2070.0,1900.0,1860.0,1950.0,2210.0,2260.0,2170.0,1810.0,1830.0,1910.0,2070.0,2030.0,1950.0,1800.0,1760.0,1840.0,2100.0,2140.0,2060.0,1720.0,1730.0,1810.0,1960.0,1920.0,1850.0,1700.0,1660.0,1740.0,1990.0,2030.0,1950.0,1630.0,1640.0,1710.0,1850.0,1810.0,1740.0,1600.0,1570.0,1640.0,1880.0,1920.0,1840.0,1540.0,1540.0,1610.0,1740.0,1700.0,1640.0,1510.0,1480.0,1550.0,1770.0,1800.0,1730.0,1450.0,1440.0,1510.0,1630.0,1600.0,1540.0,1420.0,1390.0,1450.0,1660.0,1690.0,1630.0,1360.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7900.0,8100.0,7500.0,7300.0,6800.0,6400.0,5700.0,7100.0,8800.0,8200.0,7600.0,6100.0,7400.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,6300.0,6000.0,5400.0,6700.0,8300.0,7600.0,7200.0,5900.0,6900.0,7100.0,6500.0,6400.0,5900.0,5600.0,5000.0,6200.0,7400.0,7100.0,6700.0,5400.0,6400.0,6700.0,6100.0,6000.0,5500.0,5200.0,4700.0,6100.0,7800.0,6700.0,6200.0,5100.0,6300.0,8000.0,7500.0,6200.0,5700.0,5100.0,4600.0,5600.0,7000.0,6400.0,5900.0,4900.0,9200.0,7600.0,6500.0,5600.0,5300.0,5000.0,7200.0,6400.0,6600.0,6100.0,5600.0,4700.0,5400.0,5700.0,5100.0,5100.0,4600.0,5100.0,4400.0,5000.0,6100.0,5600.0,5300.0,4300.0,5000.0,5300.0,4700.0,4700.0,5100.0,6100.0,5400.0,4600.0,5700.0,5200.0,4800.0,4000.0,4600.0,4800.0,4300.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,3400.0,4200.0,5200.0,4700.0,4500.0,3600.0,4200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3900.0,3600.0,3400.0,3100.0,3800.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,3300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3670.0,3740.0,3470.0,3330.0,3570.0,3130.0,2890.0,2990.0,3910.0,3810.0,3400.0,2790.0,4000.0,4070.0,3770.0,3630.0,3890.0,3400.0,3150.0,3260.0,4260.0,4140.0,3700.0,3030.0,4320.0,4400.0,4080.0,3920.0,4200.0,3680.0,3400.0,3520.0,4600.0,4480.0,4000.0,3280.0,4640.0,4730.0,4390.0,4210.0,4520.0,3960.0,3660.0,3780.0,4950.0,4820.0,4300.0,3530.0,5620.0,5720.0,6300.0,6800.0,6600.0,5500.0,4500.0,4700.0,6100.0,6500.0,5600.0,4500.0,6400.0,6800.0,6100.0,6000.0,6600.0,5600.0,5000.0,5000.0,6700.0,6500.0,5600.0,4700.0,5200.0,5400.0,5000.0,4800.0,5100.0,4500.0,4150.0,4300.0,5600.0,5500.0,4900.0,4000.0,4750.0,4840.0,4490.0,4310.0,4700.0,4700.0,4400.0,3950.0,5100.0,4950.0,4400.0,3600.0,4200.0,4290.0,3980.0,3820.0,4100.0,3590.0,3320.0,3430.0,4490.0,4370.0,3900.0,3200.0,3600.0,3680.0,3400.0,3260.0,3500.0,3060.0,2820.0,2920.0,3830.0,3730.0,3320.0,2720.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[12935.0,12521.0,11973.0,11744.0,11499.0,11033.0,10789.0,11167.0,12232.0,12713.0,11981.0,10538.0,13831.0,13335.0,12809.0,12536.0,12269.0,11781.0,11514.0,11907.0,13054.0,13586.0,12809.0,11255.0,14408.0,13868.0,13327.0,13039.0,12780.0,12269.0,11995.0,12395.0,13601.0,14104.0,13335.0,11714.0,13993.0,13461.0,12965.0,12684.0,12439.0,11929.0,11648.0,12055.0,13216.0,13720.0,12957.0,11389.0,13705.0,13453.0,15836.0,15466.0,14948.0,15466.0,13690.0,12861.0,13483.0,13971.0,13091.0,11529.0,13179.0,12713.0,12232.0,11966.0,11722.0,11241.0,10996.0,11352.0,12462.0,12935.0,12217.0,10745.0,12632.0,12151.0,11685.0,11455.0,11218.0,10752.0,10523.0,10871.0,11921.0,12388.0,11685.0,10279.0,12143.0,11685.0,11255.0,11019.0,10789.0,13187.0,16613.0,12846.0,11463.0,11929.0,11241.0,9886.0,11581.0,11152.0,10737.0,10515.0,11855.0,12935.0,10967.0,10575.0,10945.0,11381.0,10737.0,9435.0,10782.0,10382.0,9997.0,9783.0,9590.0,10937.0,13882.0,11115.0,10182.0,10589.0,9997.0,8784.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1400.0,1550.0,1600.0,1650.0,1550.0,1550.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1400.0,1550.0,1600.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1450.0,1550.0,1550.0,1350.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1300.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1450.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1300.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1350.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1200.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1100.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1000.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1100.0,1050.0,900.0,880.0,920.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,900.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,820.0,800.0,840.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,830.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4246.0,3618.0,3508.0,3582.0,3803.0,3951.0,2954.0,3028.0,4357.0,3766.0,3508.0,2880.0,4069.0,3468.0,3362.0,3432.0,3645.0,3786.0,2831.0,2902.0,4176.0,3609.0,3362.0,2760.0,3951.0,3367.0,3266.0,3333.0,3539.0,3676.0,2749.0,2817.0,4055.0,3505.0,3266.0,2680.0,3833.0,3267.0,3167.0,3233.0,3433.0,3567.0,2667.0,2733.0,3934.0,3400.0,3167.0,2600.0,4246.0,3618.0,3578.0,4012.0,4335.0,4346.0,3102.0,3088.0,4357.0,3766.0,3508.0,2880.0,3892.0,3317.0,3216.0,3283.0,3486.0,3621.0,2708.0,2775.0,3994.0,3452.0,3216.0,2640.0,3774.0,3409.0,3430.0,3343.0,3381.0,3512.0,2626.0,2691.0,3873.0,3348.0,3118.0,2560.0,3597.0,3066.0,2972.0,3034.0,3222.0,3347.0,2503.0,2565.0,3691.0,3191.0,2972.0,2440.0,3480.0,2965.0,2875.0,2935.0,3116.0,3237.0,2421.0,2481.0,3570.0,3086.0,2875.0,2360.0,3362.0,2865.0,2777.0,2836.0,3011.0,3128.0,2338.0,2397.0,3449.0,2982.0,2777.0,2280.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[742.0,718.0,781.0,764.0,793.0,748.0,691.0,729.0,786.0,812.0,759.0,683.0,721.0,693.0,768.0,749.0,782.0,731.0,672.0,710.0,764.0,786.0,743.0,661.0,695.0,674.0,727.0,712.0,746.0,698.0,645.0,671.0,724.0,751.0,703.0,628.0,662.0,639.0,704.0,681.0,716.0,672.0,615.0,649.0,695.0,723.0,681.0,604.0,653.0,638.0,716.0,824.0,871.0,843.0,778.0,806.0,862.0,891.0,839.0,746.0,773.0,742.0,801.0,784.0,809.0,756.0,698.0,725.0,779.0,802.0,757.0,673.0,688.0,657.0,719.0,696.0,728.0,681.0,621.0,650.0,703.0,729.0,682.0,606.0,641.0,618.0,679.0,658.0,691.0,642.0,588.0,619.0,671.0,697.0,651.0,579.0,614.0,592.0,649.0,632.0,661.0,617.0,566.0,592.0,642.0,668.0,623.0,552.0,581.0,559.0,616.0,598.0,627.0,583.0,534.0,558.0,607.0,631.0,589.0,519.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[441.0,454.0,462.0,441.0,420.0,370.0,357.0,386.0,454.0,462.0,441.0,370.0,420.0,432.0,440.0,420.0,400.0,352.0,340.0,368.0,432.0,440.0,420.0,352.0,410.0,421.0,429.0,410.0,390.0,343.0,332.0,359.0,421.0,429.0,410.0,343.0,389.0,400.0,407.0,389.0,370.0,326.0,315.0,340.0,400.0,407.0,389.0,326.0,399.0,410.0,440.0,399.0,380.0,334.0,323.0,350.0,410.0,418.0,399.0,334.0,378.0,389.0,396.0,378.0,360.0,317.0,306.0,331.0,389.0,396.0,378.0,317.0,357.0,367.0,374.0,357.0,340.0,299.0,289.0,313.0,367.0,374.0,357.0,299.0,336.0,346.0,352.0,336.0,320.0,282.0,272.0,294.0,346.0,352.0,336.0,282.0,315.0,324.0,330.0,315.0,300.0,264.0,255.0,276.0,324.0,330.0,315.0,264.0,294.0,302.0,308.0,294.0,280.0,246.0,238.0,258.0,302.0,308.0,294.0,246.0]}},{"title":"The Phantom of the Opera (1925 film)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"The Phantom of the Opera (1925 film)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[10478,9996,11673,9877,10194,8963,8389,10238,10949,18907,9831,10110,9897,9571,11616,9591,11007,17084,13168,17208,11836,17890,13354,9801,10365,9855,10811,10704,11297,9980,10323,10921,10685,22770,11661,9558,9769,7943,8544,8343,8124,7389,8216,8702,10796,14847,9898,7859,8729,9243,10149,16997,10225,8764,8864,9072,9858,18196,10742,8504,12119,7590,8277,7900,7817,6805,7230,7715,8215,16520,8949,6239,6970,6576,7178,7112,7121,6981,7367,7864,10143,17964,9694,8174,8255,7845,8432,11342,8520,7941,8229,9158,10759,22990,10749,8485,9956,9155,8980,8796,8002,7697,8013,9266,11174,22349,11910,12625,15229,10897,13927,9952,10420,9345,9384,11211,20472,27464,16903,9806],"flat_reference_value":17006.745871915857,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[19000.0,17500.0,18200.0,17100.0,16500.0,16300.0,17100.0,18000.0,22400.0,47800.0,21900.0,17900.0,18400.0,16800.0,17700.0,16900.0,17000.0,19900.0,18000.0,18500.0,23500.0,49500.0,22500.0,18500.0,19000.0,17300.0,18000.0,17400.0,16800.0,16700.0,17700.0,18800.0,24300.0,51200.0,22900.0,18700.0,19600.0,17800.0,18700.0,17900.0,17400.0,17200.0,18400.0,19400.0,25200.0,53600.0,23900.0,19500.0,20000.0,18700.0,20700.0,25400.0,21500.0,19400.0,20000.0,21100.0,27000.0,58000.0,26000.0,21000.0,31000.0,19600.0,20600.0,19800.0,18800.0,18300.0,19500.0,20700.0,26700.0,57000.0,25100.0,20500.0,20700.0,18800.0,19800.0,19000.0,18300.0,18000.0,19000.0,20200.0,26000.0,56500.0,24700.0,20200.0,20500.0,19000.0,21100.0,23700.0,18900.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,25800.0,55000.0,24200.0,20000.0,20400.0,18800.0,19600.0,18700.0,18100.0,17800.0,18800.0,20100.0,26000.0,56000.0,24400.0,20500.0,21500.0,19800.0,20700.0,20000.0,19400.0,19100.0,20500.0,22700.0,34500.0,69000.0,29000.0,23000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[18200.0,16100.0,16900.0,16200.0,15800.0,15100.0,15900.0,16400.0,19500.0,41200.0,19800.0,16900.0,18400.0,16300.0,17200.0,16400.0,21500.0,23800.0,17600.0,16900.0,20100.0,42800.0,20400.0,17300.0,18600.0,16500.0,17400.0,16700.0,15900.0,15200.0,16100.0,16800.0,19900.0,43500.0,20900.0,17500.0,18900.0,16800.0,17900.0,16600.0,16100.0,15400.0,16300.0,17200.0,20400.0,44900.0,21300.0,17800.0,19200.0,18100.0,20500.0,26400.0,21200.0,18400.0,18700.0,19300.0,22800.0,49500.0,22600.0,19100.0,20300.0,17900.0,18400.0,17200.0,16600.0,15700.0,16500.0,17100.0,20600.0,45200.0,20800.0,17600.0,18500.0,16200.0,16900.0,16100.0,15500.0,14800.0,15600.0,16300.0,20200.0,43800.0,19900.0,16800.0,18700.0,17100.0,18200.0,21400.0,16700.0,15300.0,16100.0,16700.0,19800.0,42900.0,19500.0,16500.0,17800.0,16100.0,16800.0,15900.0,15400.0,14900.0,15700.0,16600.0,20500.0,44600.0,20300.0,18900.0,20400.0,17600.0,18500.0,17900.0,17400.0,16900.0,18100.0,20200.0,34500.0,58400.0,28600.0,20100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[28400.0,26100.0,26900.0,25300.0,24800.0,23200.0,24100.0,25400.0,28900.0,53200.0,29800.0,26500.0,27200.0,24600.0,25800.0,24100.0,23900.0,22400.0,23500.0,24900.0,28100.0,51400.0,28700.0,25800.0,26100.0,23800.0,24900.0,23500.0,22800.0,21600.0,22700.0,24200.0,27300.0,49600.0,27400.0,24800.0,25400.0,22900.0,24100.0,22700.0,21900.0,20800.0,21700.0,23100.0,26200.0,47500.0,26100.0,23600.0,24500.0,22400.0,28900.0,34600.0,30200.0,23100.0,23800.0,24900.0,28400.0,51200.0,27300.0,24100.0,24200.0,21800.0,22900.0,21500.0,20800.0,19600.0,20500.0,21900.0,25100.0,46300.0,25200.0,22700.0,23100.0,20900.0,21800.0,20400.0,19700.0,18800.0,19800.0,21100.0,24300.0,43800.0,24100.0,21600.0,22300.0,20100.0,21200.0,19800.0,19100.0,18200.0,19200.0,20500.0,23600.0,42100.0,23200.0,20900.0,21800.0,20400.0,20900.0,19500.0,18900.0,17900.0,18800.0,20100.0,23200.0,41500.0,22700.0,20400.0,21400.0,19600.0,20800.0,19400.0,18900.0,18200.0,19500.0,21400.0,28300.0,55100.0,29600.0,22800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[27000.0,24500.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22500.0,23000.0,25500.0,42000.0,26500.0,24500.0,26000.0,23500.0,24500.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,22000.0,24500.0,40500.0,25500.0,23500.0,24500.0,22500.0,23500.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,21000.0,23500.0,39000.0,24500.0,22500.0,23500.0,21500.0,22500.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19500.0,20000.0,22000.0,37000.0,23000.0,21500.0,22500.0,20500.0,23000.0,25000.0,22500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,21500.0,36000.0,22500.0,21000.0,22000.0,19500.0,20500.0,19500.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,20500.0,34000.0,21000.0,19500.0,20500.0,18500.0,19500.0,18500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,19500.0,32500.0,20000.0,18500.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,21000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,18500.0,31000.0,19000.0,17500.0,18500.0,16500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,17500.0,29500.0,18000.0,16500.0,17500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,21000.0,33000.0,18500.0,16500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,48000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,32000.0,50000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,47000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,46000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,31000.0,38000.0,36000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,47000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,45000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,43000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,43000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,44000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,36000.0,56000.0,40000.0,32000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5400.0,4900.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,6300.0,12500.0,7100.0,5800.0,5300.0,5000.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5400.0,6600.0,13400.0,7300.0,6000.0,5600.0,5200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5300.0,5500.0,5700.0,5600.0,6900.0,14100.0,7600.0,6200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,5700.0,5900.0,5800.0,7100.0,14600.0,7900.0,6400.0,6100.0,5800.0,8600.0,9600.0,7900.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,7600.0,16700.0,9100.0,7300.0,11800.0,7100.0,6900.0,6700.0,6500.0,6600.0,6700.0,6900.0,8100.0,17600.0,8600.0,7100.0,6800.0,6500.0,6900.0,6700.0,6600.0,6700.0,6900.0,7000.0,9600.0,18600.0,9100.0,7400.0,7100.0,6700.0,7600.0,9200.0,7300.0,6900.0,7000.0,7100.0,8900.0,18100.0,8900.0,7500.0,7100.0,6700.0,6900.0,6800.0,6700.0,6800.0,6900.0,7000.0,8300.0,17600.0,8600.0,7700.0,7500.0,7000.0,7300.0,7100.0,7000.0,7100.0,7300.0,7800.0,13200.0,21300.0,10600.0,9200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9124.0,8932.0,9875.0,9610.0,9340.0,8477.0,9258.0,9893.0,10642.0,17455.0,10711.0,9584.0,8840.0,9021.0,9388.0,9542.0,8753.0,8524.0,9087.0,9310.0,10685.0,16932.0,10377.0,9284.0,8392.0,8635.0,8912.0,9128.0,8321.0,8117.0,8649.0,8874.0,10193.0,16241.0,9865.0,8841.0,8156.0,8379.0,8592.0,8861.0,8098.0,7883.0,8362.0,8615.0,9847.0,15708.0,9573.0,8589.0,7984.0,8123.0,11240.0,12085.0,10172.0,8439.0,8965.0,9321.0,9638.0,15462.0,9381.0,8427.0,7745.0,7912.0,8364.0,8179.0,7688.0,7451.0,7936.0,8152.0,9349.0,14985.0,9074.0,8159.0,7392.0,7568.0,7841.0,8035.0,7357.0,7138.0,7594.0,7812.0,8946.0,14312.0,8679.0,7796.0,7058.0,7234.0,7471.0,9573.0,7931.0,6815.0,7252.0,7448.0,8526.0,13684.0,8283.0,7439.0,6721.0,6894.0,7112.0,7305.0,6689.0,6492.0,6913.0,7087.0,8124.0,13057.0,7891.0,9482.0,9284.0,8912.0,9437.0,9208.0,8875.0,8391.0,8923.0,9449.0,20934.0,21847.0,10218.0,9186.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4900.0,4400.0,4600.0,5100.0,4500.0,4100.0,4300.0,5200.0,5600.0,9200.0,5800.0,5100.0,5300.0,4900.0,5100.0,5400.0,4900.0,4500.0,4700.0,5600.0,6100.0,10100.0,6300.0,5700.0,6200.0,5600.0,5800.0,6100.0,5700.0,5200.0,5500.0,6300.0,6800.0,11100.0,7000.0,6300.0,6900.0,6300.0,6600.0,6800.0,6300.0,5800.0,6100.0,7000.0,7700.0,12300.0,7800.0,7200.0,7600.0,7300.0,8900.0,9400.0,8400.0,7400.0,7300.0,7800.0,8800.0,13700.0,9000.0,8100.0,10400.0,8500.0,7700.0,7900.0,7400.0,7100.0,7300.0,7900.0,9000.0,14100.0,9100.0,8400.0,8200.0,7700.0,7900.0,8100.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,8200.0,10100.0,14700.0,9800.0,8800.0,8900.0,11400.0,12700.0,13900.0,9600.0,8300.0,8200.0,9000.0,10100.0,15700.0,10300.0,9400.0,8800.0,8300.0,8600.0,8700.0,8200.0,7900.0,8100.0,8900.0,9900.0,15200.0,9900.0,9100.0,12600.0,11900.0,9300.0,9400.0,8900.0,8600.0,8800.0,9500.0,10500.0,16300.0,10700.0,9900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4500.0,4300.0,4000.0,3950.0,4050.0,3800.0,3850.0,4050.0,4200.0,6100.0,4600.0,4300.0,4320.0,4080.0,3800.0,3760.0,3840.0,3600.0,3680.0,3840.0,4000.0,5800.0,4400.0,4080.0,4100.0,3880.0,3610.0,3570.0,3650.0,3420.0,3500.0,3650.0,3800.0,5510.0,4180.0,3880.0,4210.0,3980.0,3710.0,3670.0,3740.0,3510.0,3590.0,3740.0,3900.0,5660.0,4290.0,3980.0,4860.0,4590.0,4280.0,4230.0,4320.0,4050.0,4140.0,4320.0,4500.0,6530.0,4950.0,4590.0,6500.0,4390.0,4090.0,4040.0,4130.0,3870.0,3960.0,4130.0,4300.0,6240.0,4730.0,4390.0,4430.0,4180.0,3900.0,3850.0,3940.0,3690.0,3770.0,3940.0,4100.0,5950.0,4510.0,4180.0,4540.0,4280.0,3990.0,3950.0,4030.0,3780.0,3860.0,4030.0,4200.0,6090.0,4620.0,4280.0,4860.0,4590.0,4280.0,4230.0,4320.0,4050.0,4140.0,4320.0,4500.0,6530.0,4950.0,4590.0,9000.0,12000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6300.0,5900.0,6000.0,6300.0,6500.0,15000.0,11000.0,7000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7500.0,7100.0,7900.0,7600.0,8000.0,7400.0,7800.0,7700.0,10100.0,11800.0,8300.0,8700.0,7700.0,7600.0,8100.0,8200.0,8300.0,8000.0,8100.0,8200.0,8800.0,12200.0,8600.0,9200.0,8100.0,7900.0,8500.0,8600.0,8600.0,8400.0,8500.0,8700.0,9200.0,12800.0,9000.0,9700.0,8600.0,8500.0,9100.0,9200.0,9200.0,8900.0,9000.0,9300.0,9900.0,13600.0,9600.0,10300.0,9500.0,9300.0,11500.0,11400.0,11100.0,9800.0,9900.0,10100.0,10800.0,17200.0,10500.0,11300.0,13500.0,10800.0,10600.0,10500.0,10700.0,10400.0,10500.0,10700.0,11400.0,15800.0,11100.0,12000.0,9800.0,9500.0,10300.0,10300.0,10400.0,10100.0,10200.0,10400.0,11100.0,15400.0,10800.0,11700.0,12000.0,12300.0,12700.0,13700.0,10700.0,10400.0,10500.0,10700.0,11400.0,15800.0,11100.0,12600.0,10600.0,9800.0,9800.0,9800.0,9900.0,9600.0,9700.0,9900.0,10600.0,14600.0,10300.0,11100.0,12300.0,11500.0,13000.0,13600.0,13700.0,13900.0,14100.0,14900.0,19900.0,21800.0,15600.0,16100.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[19960.0,19000.0,19380.0,19200.0,18800.0,17680.0,16920.0,17680.0,24620.0,44460.0,26120.0,18060.0,22060.0,21000.0,21420.0,21220.0,20800.0,19540.0,18700.0,19540.0,22680.0,27300.0,23100.0,19960.0,24160.0,23000.0,23460.0,23240.0,22780.0,21400.0,20480.0,21400.0,24840.0,29900.0,25300.0,21860.0,27300.0,26000.0,26520.0,26260.0,25740.0,24180.0,23140.0,24180.0,28080.0,33800.0,28600.0,24700.0,36220.0,34500.0,43980.0,47040.0,42700.0,32080.0,30700.0,32080.0,37260.0,44860.0,37960.0,32780.0,199600.0,83600.0,62020.0,49900.0,43260.0,38160.0,35520.0,37100.0,49240.0,79040.0,54340.0,39720.0,40320.0,35200.0,34280.0,32320.0,31680.0,29760.0,28480.0,29760.0,34560.0,41600.0,35200.0,30400.0,29400.0,28000.0,28560.0,28280.0,27720.0,26040.0,24920.0,26040.0,30240.0,36400.0,30800.0,26600.0,26250.0,25000.0,25500.0,25250.0,24750.0,23250.0,22250.0,23250.0,27000.0,32500.0,31620.0,32060.0,34660.0,33600.0,35200.0,36360.0,41580.0,46040.0,49400.0,64180.0,103680.0,109200.0,56100.0,37060.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[17200.0,15800.0,16300.0,14900.0,13800.0,12700.0,13100.0,14100.0,15800.0,18600.0,16900.0,16400.0,17500.0,16100.0,16700.0,15300.0,14100.0,13000.0,13400.0,14500.0,16200.0,19000.0,17400.0,16900.0,41500.0,28500.0,21900.0,19100.0,17200.0,15500.0,15000.0,16800.0,19700.0,22800.0,20900.0,20400.0,20700.0,19000.0,19600.0,18000.0,16600.0,15300.0,15700.0,17200.0,20100.0,22700.0,20700.0,20000.0,20200.0,18800.0,17500.0,22000.0,23500.0,20000.0,17200.0,17400.0,20300.0,23200.0,21100.0,20100.0,31500.0,25500.0,21500.0,19800.0,18200.0,16800.0,17100.0,18300.0,20800.0,23500.0,21500.0,21000.0,21500.0,19800.0,20400.0,19200.0,17900.0,16500.0,16900.0,18200.0,20800.0,23700.0,21700.0,21100.0,22300.0,20500.0,21200.0,19800.0,18400.0,17000.0,17400.0,18900.0,21600.0,37000.0,24600.0,23100.0,24100.0,22000.0,22700.0,28000.0,22500.0,18100.0,18500.0,20100.0,23000.0,26100.0,23900.0,23500.0,30000.0,26000.0,23500.0,21800.0,20200.0,18700.0,19200.0,21000.0,45000.0,105000.0,61000.0,37000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3200.0,3040.0,3200.0,3040.0,2880.0,2880.0,3040.0,3040.0,3360.0,5120.0,3520.0,3360.0,3300.0,3135.0,3300.0,3135.0,2970.0,2970.0,3135.0,3135.0,3465.0,5280.0,3630.0,3465.0,3400.0,3230.0,3400.0,3230.0,3060.0,3060.0,3230.0,3230.0,3570.0,5440.0,3740.0,3570.0,3300.0,3135.0,3300.0,3135.0,2970.0,2970.0,3135.0,3135.0,3465.0,5280.0,3630.0,3465.0,3600.0,3420.0,3800.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,5600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3300.0,3135.0,3300.0,3135.0,2970.0,2970.0,3135.0,3135.0,3465.0,5280.0,3630.0,3465.0,3100.0,2945.0,3100.0,2945.0,2790.0,2790.0,2945.0,2945.0,3255.0,4960.0,3410.0,3255.0,2900.0,2755.0,2900.0,2755.0,2610.0,2610.0,2755.0,2755.0,3045.0,4640.0,3190.0,3045.0,2700.0,2565.0,2700.0,2565.0,2430.0,2430.0,2565.0,2565.0,2835.0,4320.0,2970.0,2835.0,2600.0,2470.0,2600.0,2470.0,2340.0,2340.0,2470.0,2470.0,2730.0,4160.0,2860.0,2730.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[8100.0,7200.0,7800.0,7300.0,7000.0,6500.0,6100.0,6700.0,8500.0,17000.0,8300.0,8800.0,8000.0,7100.0,7700.0,7200.0,6900.0,6400.0,6000.0,6600.0,8600.0,17500.0,8400.0,8900.0,8200.0,7300.0,7900.0,7400.0,7000.0,6600.0,6200.0,6800.0,8800.0,18000.0,8600.0,9100.0,8500.0,7600.0,8200.0,7700.0,7300.0,6800.0,6400.0,7000.0,9000.0,18500.0,8800.0,9300.0,9200.0,8200.0,10500.0,11200.0,10700.0,10000.0,9600.0,10400.0,12800.0,25000.0,13000.0,14200.0,10500.0,9200.0,9600.0,9000.0,8600.0,8200.0,7900.0,8500.0,10800.0,22500.0,11000.0,12000.0,9600.0,8400.0,8800.0,8300.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,7800.0,9800.0,20500.0,10000.0,10800.0,9300.0,8200.0,8600.0,8200.0,7800.0,7400.0,7100.0,7600.0,9700.0,20000.0,9700.0,10400.0,9600.0,8500.0,8900.0,8400.0,8000.0,7700.0,7400.0,8100.0,10800.0,23000.0,11000.0,11700.0,10500.0,9200.0,9800.0,9300.0,8900.0,9300.0,9100.0,10000.0,13500.0,32000.0,14500.0,13800.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[520.0,480.0,510.0,495.0,505.0,530.0,560.0,590.0,670.0,1040.0,650.0,590.0,540.0,500.0,530.0,515.0,525.0,550.0,580.0,610.0,700.0,1120.0,680.0,610.0,560.0,510.0,545.0,530.0,540.0,565.0,600.0,625.0,720.0,1180.0,700.0,630.0,575.0,530.0,560.0,550.0,560.0,585.0,620.0,650.0,760.0,1260.0,730.0,660.0,600.0,550.0,590.0,580.0,590.0,620.0,650.0,690.0,810.0,1420.0,780.0,700.0,625.0,580.0,610.0,600.0,610.0,640.0,675.0,710.0,840.0,1380.0,800.0,720.0,640.0,595.0,625.0,615.0,625.0,655.0,690.0,730.0,860.0,1450.0,820.0,740.0,655.0,610.0,645.0,630.0,640.0,670.0,705.0,745.0,885.0,1510.0,850.0,760.0,670.0,620.0,655.0,645.0,655.0,685.0,725.0,765.0,910.0,1580.0,880.0,790.0,700.0,650.0,690.0,675.0,700.0,735.0,780.0,830.0,1020.0,1900.0,1250.0,900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[880.0,820.0,860.0,830.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,740.0,830.0,1100.0,900.0,860.0,850.0,800.0,820.0,790.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,700.0,790.0,1050.0,860.0,820.0,800.0,760.0,780.0,750.0,720.0,700.0,690.0,670.0,750.0,1000.0,820.0,780.0,760.0,730.0,740.0,710.0,690.0,670.0,650.0,640.0,720.0,950.0,780.0,740.0,740.0,710.0,780.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,700.0,690.0,740.0,980.0,790.0,760.0,800.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,640.0,630.0,700.0,940.0,760.0,720.0,690.0,660.0,650.0,630.0,610.0,600.0,590.0,580.0,640.0,880.0,710.0,670.0,640.0,610.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,550.0,540.0,530.0,590.0,820.0,650.0,620.0,590.0,560.0,550.0,530.0,510.0,500.0,490.0,480.0,530.0,740.0,580.0,550.0,520.0,490.0,480.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,470.0,680.0,510.0,480.0]}},{"title":"Hunted (2015 TV series)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Hunted (2015 TV series)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[1324,795,1571,2480,1027,1153,1388,2540,41391,52097,13941,19558,46703,26383,12783,5973,6196,6213,4878,7950,10223,30095,13134,10922,78746,48447,13878,8241,6645,5728,8805,6760,8177,33745,31728,13480,60248,50480,11975,10629,8311,10037,12644,9050,15646,56772,29361,8358,13230,45202,50766,24429,16511,11119,11715,10091,9452,15128,12483,4329,1354,1202,1090,1096,5389,8762,9899,10533,12028,11367,9404,8857,17891,39031,17749,8450,20601,36286,35180,17254,10849,9659,6721,5531,18206,7346,14782,29046,20166,8735,11264,10616,10185,9364,9384,7604,8360,7129,25965,41071,12335,7162,7702,7793,8030,8813,8154,9861,34292,31245,11229,6391,5584,5153,6799,7046,6356,28313,22551,8054],"flat_reference_value":17003.720363909884,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6200.0,4800.0,4100.0,3700.0,3500.0,3200.0,3500.0,4200.0,14500.0,16500.0,7200.0,5000.0,8000.0,6800.0,4600.0,3800.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,4200.0,8500.0,7600.0,5700.0,22000.0,15000.0,6200.0,4600.0,3900.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4000.0,6500.0,5600.0,5200.0,23000.0,14000.0,5900.0,4500.0,4000.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,7000.0,6100.0,4900.0,6000.0,19000.0,17000.0,6500.0,5000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,4100.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3700.0,3400.0,3900.0,4800.0,15000.0,19000.0,7300.0,4700.0,4000.0,3900.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3800.0,7000.0,8500.0,5000.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3900.0,4500.0,14000.0,19000.0,7000.0,4300.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,4300.0,16000.0,12000.0,6000.0,4600.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[7200.0,5400.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4900.0,5800.0,28500.0,39000.0,12500.0,6800.0,48000.0,26000.0,11500.0,6200.0,5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,5600.0,8200.0,34000.0,18500.0,8400.0,44000.0,36000.0,12000.0,6500.0,5600.0,5200.0,5400.0,5800.0,7100.0,31000.0,24000.0,8900.0,42000.0,33000.0,10500.0,6100.0,5500.0,5100.0,5300.0,5700.0,6800.0,28000.0,22500.0,7800.0,9500.0,38500.0,31000.0,11200.0,8400.0,6800.0,6200.0,5900.0,5700.0,6100.0,5800.0,5500.0,6400.0,5800.0,5300.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,18500.0,24000.0,9800.0,6200.0,29500.0,19000.0,11500.0,9200.0,5800.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,5200.0,4900.0,16500.0,22000.0,12500.0,5800.0,6400.0,6100.0,5400.0,14500.0,11000.0,5200.0,5600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,16000.0,13500.0,6200.0,4800.0,4400.0,4600.0,19500.0,14000.0,6500.0,4300.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3900.0,4200.0,8500.0,6800.0,4100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[15000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,9000.0,12000.0,42000.0,55000.0,18000.0,14000.0,52000.0,45000.0,20000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,12000.0,15000.0,40000.0,38000.0,16000.0,55000.0,50000.0,20000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,11000.0,14000.0,36000.0,34000.0,15000.0,48000.0,45000.0,18000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9500.0,12000.0,32000.0,28000.0,12000.0,18000.0,42000.0,40000.0,20000.0,15000.0,12000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7500.0,8000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,18000.0,24000.0,12000.0,10000.0,32000.0,35000.0,12000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,8000.0,8500.0,20000.0,24000.0,15000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,7500.0,8000.0,22000.0,26000.0,12000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,7000.0,7500.0,16000.0,20000.0,10000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,5800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[5200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,22000.0,30000.0,14000.0,7000.0,5200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4800.0,5200.0,4800.0,5000.0,24000.0,26000.0,12000.0,6500.0,5000.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4500.0,19000.0,22000.0,10000.0,5800.0,4600.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,6000.0,15000.0,17000.0,9000.0,6000.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,3500.0,13000.0,16000.0,7000.0,4200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2800.0,9000.0,11000.0,6000.0,3500.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[22000.0,19000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,16000.0,75000.0,120000.0,40000.0,22000.0,38000.0,30000.0,22000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,20000.0,70000.0,40000.0,25000.0,110000.0,120000.0,40000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,18000.0,65000.0,45000.0,25000.0,100000.0,115000.0,38000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,18000.0,60000.0,40000.0,22000.0,24000.0,85000.0,110000.0,40000.0,28000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,35000.0,55000.0,22000.0,16000.0,50000.0,70000.0,28000.0,20000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,16000.0,45000.0,30000.0,15000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,12000.0,25000.0,40000.0,20000.0,12000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,14000.0,35000.0,40000.0,20000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2600.0,2500.0,3000.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,14000.0,9500.0,3000.0,2400.0,3200.0,8500.0,7500.0,2800.0,2400.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,3500.0,6500.0,3800.0,2100.0,9000.0,7000.0,2500.0,2100.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,1700.0,1500.0,8000.0,6500.0,2300.0,2000.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1700.0,4800.0,2900.0,1600.0,2000.0,5000.0,6500.0,5000.0,1900.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,2400.0,1700.0,1400.0,1400.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,2600.0,1900.0,1100.0,7000.0,5500.0,1900.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,2300.0,1600.0,1100.0,6000.0,4700.0,1700.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,2100.0,1500.0,1000.0,5000.0,4000.0,2400.0,1300.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1800.0,1300.0,950.0,4200.0,3600.0,2000.0,1200.0,1050.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,1500.0,1200.0,900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2200.0,1800.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1600.0,1800.0,3200.0,9500.0,26000.0,9000.0,4200.0,2200.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,2100.0,7500.0,3200.0,3800.0,29000.0,19000.0,5200.0,2300.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,2100.0,2600.0,5200.0,31000.0,21000.0,8500.0,2500.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1900.0,2200.0,2400.0,3500.0,4200.0,18500.0,26000.0,5500.0,3200.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2300.0,2800.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,6500.0,3000.0,2600.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2400.0,3200.0,15500.0,17500.0,4500.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,2600.0,2800.0,5200.0,16500.0,6000.0,2000.0,2400.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,2200.0,13500.0,8000.0,2200.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,4500.0,2000.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2400.0,1900.0,1650.0,1500.0,1400.0,1320.0,1450.0,2050.0,7200.0,8600.0,3400.0,1900.0,1850.0,2300.0,2450.0,1900.0,1350.0,1250.0,1300.0,1750.0,6800.0,9500.0,3800.0,1750.0,1550.0,1300.0,1180.0,1120.0,1100.0,1050.0,1150.0,1550.0,6200.0,9000.0,3500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1250.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1450.0,5800.0,8400.0,3300.0,1450.0,1350.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1180.0,1050.0,1100.0,1250.0,1600.0,3400.0,2100.0,1350.0,1300.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1050.0,1350.0,5600.0,8100.0,3100.0,1400.0,1250.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,1000.0,1300.0,5200.0,7600.0,2900.0,1350.0,1200.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,1250.0,5000.0,7300.0,2800.0,1300.0,1150.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,1200.0,4800.0,7000.0,2700.0,1250.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,750.0,850.0,1150.0,4500.0,6600.0,2550.0,1200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4500.0,3500.0,3000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,3500.0,28000.0,22000.0,6000.0,4000.0,3000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2500.0,22000.0,16000.0,5000.0,26000.0,18000.0,6000.0,3000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,3000.0,17000.0,12000.0,4500.0,24000.0,16000.0,5500.0,3000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,3000.0,16000.0,11000.0,4500.0,6000.0,22000.0,15000.0,5000.0,3000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2300.0,3500.0,18000.0,12000.0,5000.0,7000.0,20000.0,13000.0,4500.0,2800.0,2400.0,2100.0,2200.0,3200.0,15000.0,10000.0,4500.0,6000.0,17000.0,11000.0,4000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,3000.0,13000.0,8500.0,4000.0,5500.0,14000.0,9000.0,3500.0,2300.0,2000.0,1800.0,1900.0,2700.0,11000.0,7000.0,3500.0,5000.0,12000.0,8000.0,3200.0,2100.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,2500.0,9000.0,6000.0,3000.0,4500.0,10000.0,7000.0,3000.0,2000.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,2300.0,8000.0,5500.0,2800.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2200.0,8500.0,11000.0,4500.0,2200.0,1600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,9500.0,13500.0,6000.0,2800.0,1800.0,1500.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,5200.0,6800.0,2400.0,1700.0,4500.0,2500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1700.0,10000.0,14500.0,6000.0,2500.0,1800.0,1700.0,2800.0,3200.0,2600.0,2000.0,1700.0,1800.0,2200.0,12000.0,16500.0,5500.0,2200.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2300.0,15000.0,21000.0,8500.0,5500.0,6000.0,2800.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,16000.0,23000.0,9000.0,3500.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,17000.0,25000.0,9500.0,3800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,5000.0,6500.0,3200.0,18000.0,27000.0,10000.0,4000.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2800.0,8500.0,11000.0,6500.0,3900.0,2900.0,2400.0,2200.0,2050.0,2100.0,1900.0,1750.0,1650.0,2500.0,2700.0,2300.0,1600.0,1350.0,1250.0,1180.0,1120.0,1160.0,1080.0,1020.0,960.0,935.0,910.0,890.0,865.0,840.0,820.0,800.0,815.0,835.0,810.0,785.0,760.0,740.0,730.0,720.0,705.0,695.0,685.0,695.0,725.0,815.0,795.0,755.0,720.0,740.0,820.0,880.0,860.0,825.0,800.0,810.0,840.0,850.0,830.0,800.0,780.0,765.0,775.0,765.0,755.0,745.0,735.0,745.0,755.0,765.0,745.0,730.0,715.0,705.0,715.0,725.0,715.0,705.0,715.0,775.0,960.0,1060.0,960.0,865.0,815.0,915.0,1010.0,960.0,840.0,780.0,755.0,745.0,755.0,765.0,745.0,730.0,715.0,705.0,715.0,700.0,690.0,680.0,670.0,675.0,685.0,695.0,675.0,660.0,650.0,640.0,650.0,635.0,625.0,615.0,605.0,610.0,620.0,630.0,615.0,600.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[5400.0,6200.0,2300.0,1400.0,1050.0,880.0,790.0,730.0,670.0,620.0,570.0,650.0,690.0,620.0,560.0,520.0,480.0,450.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,360.0,330.0,390.0,460.0,420.0,390.0,360.0,340.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,260.0,310.0,360.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,720.0,2700.0,2900.0,1900.0,1050.0,680.0,540.0,570.0,620.0,560.0,720.0,900.0,960.0,850.0,750.0,680.0,610.0,560.0,520.0,570.0,540.0,490.0,460.0,430.0,410.0,390.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,330.0,300.0,350.0,390.0,360.0,340.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,245.0,290.0,340.0,320.0,300.0,290.0,285.0,280.0,270.0,265.0,255.0,245.0,230.0,275.0,310.0,290.0,275.0,265.0,260.0,255.0,245.0,240.0,235.0,230.0,215.0,255.0,300.0,280.0,265.0,255.0,250.0,245.0,235.0,230.0,225.0,220.0,205.0,240.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2500.0,1500.0,1100.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,1500.0,4500.0,3500.0,1500.0,2500.0,2500.0,1500.0,1200.0,1000.0,900.0,900.0,1000.0,1800.0,3500.0,2500.0,1400.0,1800.0,1300.0,1100.0,1000.0,900.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,1200.0,2200.0,2500.0,1300.0,1500.0,1200.0,1000.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,800.0,1100.0,2200.0,1800.0,1000.0,1200.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,900.0,1500.0,1300.0,900.0,1000.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,650.0,650.0,650.0,800.0,1300.0,1100.0,800.0,850.0,750.0,700.0,650.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,700.0,1000.0,900.0,700.0,750.0,700.0,650.0,600.0,600.0,550.0,550.0,600.0,700.0,1200.0,1000.0,700.0,800.0,700.0,650.0,600.0,550.0,550.0,550.0,550.0,650.0,1000.0,900.0,650.0,700.0,650.0,600.0,550.0,500.0,500.0,500.0,500.0,600.0,900.0,800.0,600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[322.0,206.0,268.0,233.0,284.0,294.0,291.0,219.0,355.0,284.0,231.0,245.0,266.0,169.0,220.0,193.0,235.0,244.0,236.0,183.0,289.0,235.0,190.0,203.0,245.0,155.0,210.0,181.0,213.0,223.0,217.0,168.0,275.0,220.0,174.0,186.0,232.0,147.0,197.0,171.0,206.0,212.0,206.0,159.0,261.0,209.0,167.0,176.0,271.0,179.0,239.0,217.0,251.0,284.0,260.0,196.0,303.0,242.0,190.0,206.0,215.0,139.0,184.0,160.0,193.0,213.0,191.0,150.0,242.0,192.0,155.0,169.0,205.0,132.0,170.0,152.0,180.0,198.0,180.0,143.0,226.0,182.0,149.0,160.0,198.0,128.0,169.0,150.0,172.0,197.0,177.0,154.0,220.0,180.0,142.0,155.0,194.0,124.0,160.0,143.0,167.0,181.0,172.0,134.0,216.0,171.0,138.0,150.0,183.0,117.0,154.0,136.0,157.0,179.0,161.0,135.0,204.0,163.0,132.0,141.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[180.0,165.0,420.0,310.0,150.0,120.0,105.0,110.0,130.0,190.0,140.0,120.0,360.0,290.0,180.0,125.0,105.0,95.0,90.0,100.0,120.0,240.0,155.0,115.0,330.0,390.0,210.0,140.0,115.0,100.0,95.0,105.0,125.0,260.0,170.0,125.0,310.0,350.0,190.0,135.0,110.0,95.0,90.0,100.0,120.0,230.0,160.0,120.0,320.0,470.0,260.0,190.0,150.0,125.0,110.0,115.0,140.0,280.0,190.0,145.0,360.0,410.0,220.0,155.0,125.0,110.0,100.0,110.0,135.0,270.0,185.0,140.0,390.0,450.0,240.0,165.0,130.0,115.0,105.0,115.0,140.0,290.0,195.0,145.0,370.0,420.0,225.0,155.0,125.0,110.0,100.0,110.0,135.0,260.0,180.0,135.0,350.0,400.0,215.0,150.0,120.0,105.0,95.0,105.0,130.0,250.0,170.0,130.0,330.0,380.0,205.0,145.0,115.0,100.0,90.0,100.0,125.0,235.0,160.0,120.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1400.0,1200.0,900.0,600.0,500.0,480.0,450.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,420.0,1100.0,900.0,750.0,550.0,480.0,450.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,300.0,290.0,290.0,280.0,280.0,290.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,240.0,240.0,235.0,240.0,260.0,270.0,250.0,240.0,230.0,230.0,220.0,220.0,215.0,210.0,210.0,220.0,225.0,220.0,215.0,210.0,205.0,200.0,200.0,195.0,190.0,190.0,185.0,190.0,190.0,185.0,180.0,180.0,175.0,170.0,170.0,165.0,165.0,160.0,160.0,165.0,165.0,160.0,160.0,155.0,150.0,150.0,145.0,145.0,140.0,140.0,140.0,145.0,150.0,145.0,140.0,140.0,135.0,130.0,130.0,125.0,125.0,120.0,120.0,125.0,125.0,120.0,120.0,115.0,115.0,110.0,110.0,105.0,105.0,105.0,100.0,105.0]}},{"title":"(Get Your Kicks on) Route 66","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"(Get Your Kicks on) Route 66\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[18,9,7,11,4,6,16,7,9,10,8,17,15,7,18,16,14,15,16,15,10,21,17,10,15,22,14,10,14,8,9,9,18,16,9,17,19,9,15,24,20,45,14,17,21,23,5093,5153,5472,4938,5021,5926,6616,5895,6102,5576,5500,6091,5416,5349,6062,6114,6405,6369,6559,6208,6280,6709,5468,5372,5084,4994,6074,5550,5738,12704,10172,6452,6738,7705,6111,6017,5765,5037,6390,6160,7089,6643,7513,7195,7282,6758,6479,7057,6556,6440,7625,6630,7294,7315,7943,6847,6637,6510,6380,6380,5781,5791,6393,6008,6657,6159,7383,6920,7254,6555,5699,5786,5417,5251],"flat_reference_value":17255.841472898686,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7200.0,6900.0,7500.0,7300.0,7800.0,8500.0,9100.0,8900.0,7900.0,7600.0,7100.0,7300.0,7500.0,6900.0,16000.0,10500.0,8200.0,8700.0,9300.0,9000.0,8000.0,7800.0,7300.0,7600.0,7800.0,7100.0,7700.0,7500.0,8200.0,8900.0,9600.0,9300.0,8400.0,8100.0,7600.0,7800.0,8000.0,7400.0,10500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9300.0,9900.0,9600.0,8600.0,8300.0,7900.0,8100.0,8300.0,7700.0,8400.0,8200.0,8500.0,9000.0,9700.0,9500.0,8700.0,8500.0,8000.0,8300.0,8500.0,7800.0,8500.0,8300.0,9000.0,9800.0,10500.0,10500.0,9300.0,8800.0,8300.0,8600.0,8800.0,8100.0,8800.0,8500.0,9300.0,10100.0,10800.0,10400.0,9400.0,9000.0,8500.0,8800.0,9000.0,8300.0,9000.0,8800.0,9500.0,10400.0,11100.0,10700.0,9600.0,9300.0,8700.0,9000.0,9200.0,8600.0,9300.0,9500.0,9900.0,10700.0,11400.0,11000.0,9900.0,9500.0,9000.0,9300.0,9500.0,8800.0,9500.0,9300.0,10100.0,11000.0,11700.0,11300.0,10200.0,9800.0,9300.0,9600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[7150.0,6820.0,7410.0,7580.0,8120.0,8450.0,8790.0,8540.0,7690.0,7420.0,7080.0,6790.0,7310.0,6950.0,12450.0,8190.0,8410.0,9850.0,9420.0,8760.0,7810.0,7590.0,7180.0,6890.0,7420.0,6980.0,7650.0,7790.0,8260.0,8610.0,8940.0,8680.0,7820.0,7560.0,7150.0,6840.0,7490.0,7060.0,7780.0,7890.0,8380.0,8720.0,9050.0,8810.0,7940.0,7680.0,7290.0,6970.0,7580.0,7210.0,6890.0,7140.0,7690.0,8120.0,8560.0,8420.0,7750.0,7590.0,7180.0,6920.0,7480.0,7040.0,7720.0,7860.0,8450.0,8890.0,9180.0,9460.0,7920.0,7610.0,7190.0,6850.0,7320.0,6880.0,7490.0,7580.0,8140.0,8390.0,8710.0,8460.0,8350.0,7480.0,6940.0,6610.0,7050.0,6620.0,7190.0,7280.0,7740.0,8020.0,8360.0,8090.0,7240.0,6980.0,6590.0,6280.0,6680.0,6340.0,6850.0,6920.0,7380.0,7650.0,7980.0,7740.0,6910.0,6670.0,6290.0,5980.0,6390.0,6020.0,6580.0,6710.0,7190.0,7520.0,7890.0,7680.0,6890.0,6720.0,6540.0,6180.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5420.0,4910.0,5240.0,5030.0,5350.0,5840.0,6120.0,5930.0,5180.0,4990.0,4810.0,5150.0,5010.0,4620.0,7450.0,5790.0,5210.0,5880.0,6190.0,5830.0,4940.0,4780.0,4510.0,4890.0,4820.0,4430.0,4710.0,4600.0,4920.0,5410.0,5640.0,5320.0,4690.0,4480.0,4320.0,4610.0,4530.0,4180.0,4850.0,4420.0,4710.0,5130.0,5340.0,5020.0,4490.0,4210.0,4090.0,4380.0,4220.0,3940.0,4410.0,5280.0,5110.0,4820.0,5040.0,4730.0,4210.0,4030.0,3890.0,4190.0,4110.0,3720.0,4020.0,3910.0,4230.0,4620.0,4810.0,4540.0,4010.0,3820.0,3690.0,3940.0,3880.0,3520.0,3810.0,3710.0,4040.0,4380.0,4550.0,4290.0,3790.0,3620.0,3490.0,3780.0,3710.0,3390.0,3620.0,3580.0,3890.0,4210.0,4420.0,4130.0,3640.0,3480.0,3370.0,3610.0,3590.0,3280.0,3510.0,3420.0,3780.0,4110.0,4290.0,4020.0,3530.0,3390.0,3270.0,3510.0,3490.0,3190.0,3420.0,3360.0,3690.0,4010.0,4190.0,3910.0,3440.0,3310.0,3180.0,3420.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[10800.0,10200.0,10900.0,10800.0,11300.0,11800.0,12200.0,11900.0,10900.0,10700.0,10300.0,10400.0,10400.0,9700.0,10500.0,10400.0,10900.0,11400.0,11800.0,11500.0,10500.0,10300.0,9900.0,10000.0,10000.0,9300.0,10100.0,10000.0,10400.0,10900.0,11300.0,11000.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9600.0,9500.0,8900.0,9600.0,9500.0,9900.0,10400.0,10800.0,10500.0,9600.0,9400.0,9100.0,9200.0,9200.0,8700.0,9800.0,10600.0,10500.0,10300.0,10400.0,10100.0,9200.0,9000.0,8700.0,8900.0,8800.0,8200.0,8900.0,8800.0,9200.0,9600.0,9900.0,9600.0,8800.0,8600.0,8300.0,8400.0,8400.0,7800.0,8500.0,8400.0,8800.0,9200.0,9500.0,9200.0,8400.0,8200.0,7900.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,8100.0,8000.0,8400.0,8800.0,9100.0,8800.0,8000.0,7800.0,7500.0,7600.0,7600.0,7100.0,7700.0,7600.0,8000.0,8400.0,8700.0,8400.0,7700.0,7500.0,7200.0,7300.0,7300.0,6900.0,7500.0,7500.0,7900.0,8300.0,8600.0,8300.0,7700.0,7700.0,7600.0,8000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[14500.0,13500.0,14000.0,13800.0,14200.0,14800.0,15500.0,15200.0,14000.0,13800.0,13500.0,13800.0,14200.0,13000.0,17500.0,14000.0,14000.0,15500.0,15800.0,15000.0,13500.0,13200.0,13000.0,13200.0,13500.0,12300.0,13000.0,12800.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13800.0,12500.0,12500.0,12200.0,12300.0,12800.0,11800.0,12500.0,12300.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13200.0,12000.0,12000.0,11800.0,12000.0,12500.0,11800.0,12500.0,14000.0,14200.0,13500.0,13500.0,13200.0,12200.0,12000.0,11800.0,12200.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11800.0,12000.0,12200.0,12500.0,13800.0,11500.0,11200.0,11000.0,11200.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11000.0,12500.0,11800.0,11800.0,11500.0,10500.0,10500.0,10300.0,10500.0,11000.0,10200.0,10800.0,10600.0,10800.0,11000.0,11300.0,11000.0,10200.0,10200.0,10000.0,10200.0,10500.0,9800.0,10300.0,10200.0,10500.0,10800.0,11000.0,10800.0,10000.0,10000.0,9800.0,10000.0,10500.0,9800.0,10500.0,10500.0,10800.0,11200.0,11500.0,11300.0,10500.0,10600.0,10800.0,11200.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6700.0,6100.0,6800.0,6500.0,7300.0,7900.0,8400.0,7500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6200.0,6600.0,6300.0,5900.0,45000.0,10500.0,7300.0,9400.0,8700.0,7600.0,6500.0,6200.0,6000.0,6400.0,5900.0,5600.0,6100.0,5800.0,6700.0,7500.0,8000.0,7100.0,6200.0,5900.0,5800.0,6200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5900.0,5600.0,6400.0,7100.0,7600.0,6900.0,5900.0,5700.0,5500.0,5900.0,5600.0,5200.0,6000.0,5500.0,5900.0,6400.0,6800.0,6300.0,5600.0,5400.0,5300.0,5700.0,5700.0,5300.0,5800.0,5900.0,6900.0,7900.0,8500.0,7800.0,6300.0,5900.0,5800.0,6100.0,5700.0,5400.0,5900.0,5800.0,6700.0,7200.0,7700.0,6900.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,6000.0,5600.0,5200.0,5700.0,5500.0,6300.0,7000.0,7500.0,6800.0,5900.0,5700.0,5600.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,6000.0,5900.0,6700.0,7500.0,8100.0,7300.0,6400.0,6300.0,6400.0,6600.0,6500.0,6100.0,6700.0,6900.0,7900.0,9100.0,9900.0,8900.0,7600.0,7900.0,8600.0,7900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[7185.0,6950.0,8150.0,7890.0,8520.0,9310.0,9680.0,9120.0,8340.0,8060.0,7540.0,7080.0,7010.0,6790.0,20450.0,12480.0,8350.0,10800.0,9420.0,8890.0,8120.0,7840.0,7380.0,6940.0,6720.0,6580.0,7540.0,7430.0,7910.0,8690.0,9050.0,8560.0,7830.0,8800.0,7090.0,6680.0,6450.0,6310.0,7240.0,7150.0,7610.0,8330.0,8680.0,8220.0,7510.0,7230.0,6810.0,6420.0,6280.0,6150.0,8050.0,8400.0,8450.0,8080.0,8440.0,8010.0,7320.0,7030.0,6620.0,6280.0,6090.0,5960.0,6840.0,6750.0,7180.0,7860.0,8190.0,7780.0,7100.0,6830.0,6430.0,6080.0,5910.0,5780.0,6640.0,6550.0,6970.0,7630.0,7950.0,7550.0,6890.0,6630.0,6240.0,5900.0,5730.0,5610.0,6440.0,6360.0,6760.0,7400.0,7710.0,7320.0,6680.0,6430.0,6050.0,5720.0,5550.0,5430.0,6240.0,6160.0,6550.0,7170.0,7470.0,7090.0,6470.0,6230.0,5860.0,5540.0,5370.0,5260.0,6040.0,5960.0,6340.0,6940.0,7230.0,6860.0,6260.0,6320.0,6270.0,5940.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6400.0,6600.0,7500.0,7800.0,8300.0,9200.0,10100.0,9600.0,8000.0,7400.0,7200.0,6500.0,6900.0,7100.0,14600.0,8400.0,8800.0,10200.0,11200.0,10200.0,8600.0,7900.0,8300.0,7000.0,7300.0,7500.0,8500.0,8800.0,9300.0,10300.0,11300.0,10700.0,8900.0,8300.0,8700.0,7300.0,7800.0,8100.0,16800.0,9400.0,9900.0,11000.0,12100.0,11500.0,9600.0,8900.0,9300.0,7800.0,8100.0,8400.0,9900.0,9400.0,10000.0,12200.0,13700.0,13000.0,10600.0,9700.0,10100.0,8300.0,8500.0,8800.0,9900.0,10200.0,10800.0,12000.0,13200.0,12400.0,10300.0,9600.0,10000.0,8400.0,9000.0,9300.0,10400.0,10700.0,11400.0,12600.0,13900.0,13100.0,12600.0,10600.0,11100.0,9300.0,9500.0,9900.0,11000.0,11300.0,12000.0,13300.0,14700.0,13800.0,11600.0,10800.0,11200.0,9500.0,10000.0,10400.0,11600.0,11900.0,12600.0,14000.0,15400.0,14500.0,12200.0,11400.0,11800.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,12300.0,12600.0,13400.0,15000.0,16600.0,15600.0,13200.0,12500.0,16000.0,13200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,5100.0,5500.0,5800.0,6000.0,5800.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,4400.0,4500.0,4750.0,4900.0,5250.0,5600.0,5750.0,5600.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4750.0,4300.0,4400.0,4700.0,4800.0,5100.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,5400.0,5700.0,5900.0,5700.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,4900.0,5300.0,5400.0,5300.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,5500.0,5900.0,7800.0,7600.0,6300.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,5300.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,5100.0,5500.0,5800.0,6000.0,5800.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,5100.0,5300.0,5700.0,6000.0,7000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,4400.0,4500.0,4750.0,4900.0,5250.0,5600.0,5750.0,5600.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4750.0,4200.0,4300.0,4600.0,4700.0,5000.0,5400.0,5500.0,5400.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7620.0,7870.0,8470.0,10000.0,10560.0,12230.0,11980.0,12080.0,11100.0,9510.0,9000.0,8340.0,8490.0,7870.0,13840.0,10300.0,11550.0,18530.0,18040.0,12430.0,11440.0,9980.0,9450.0,8770.0,8000.0,8040.0,8820.0,10400.0,11000.0,12120.0,12980.0,12080.0,11220.0,11500.0,9090.0,8770.0,8650.0,8180.0,12870.0,10910.0,11420.0,12970.0,13350.0,13320.0,11770.0,10490.0,12640.0,10930.0,8880.0,8490.0,10600.0,10420.0,13300.0,16820.0,17820.0,16930.0,14320.0,11540.0,9590.0,12890.0,9030.0,9070.0,10260.0,11730.0,14190.0,16520.0,18140.0,16520.0,13810.0,11400.0,10160.0,10290.0,8550.0,8590.0,9710.0,11010.0,11990.0,13340.0,13460.0,13430.0,11870.0,10900.0,10010.0,9090.0,8400.0,8030.0,9540.0,10400.0,11780.0,12470.0,13360.0,12810.0,11320.0,10710.0,9360.0,9030.0,8550.0,8590.0,9530.0,10800.0,12240.0,15400.0,13740.0,13040.0,11880.0,11020.0,10100.0,10130.0,9120.0,8800.0,10360.0,11630.0,13040.0,14920.0,15930.0,14740.0,13170.0,11620.0,14130.0,12870.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[72000.0,70500.0,79000.0,83500.0,92500.0,107500.0,114500.0,109000.0,90000.0,92000.0,124000.0,70500.0,78500.0,77000.0,86500.0,91000.0,101000.0,117000.0,125000.0,119000.0,98000.0,91000.0,84500.0,77000.0,85500.0,83000.0,93500.0,99000.0,109000.0,127000.0,135000.0,129000.0,106000.0,99000.0,91500.0,83000.0,82000.0,80000.0,90000.0,95000.0,105000.0,122000.0,130000.0,124000.0,102000.0,95000.0,88000.0,80000.0,82000.0,80000.0,76500.0,64500.0,82000.0,124500.0,143000.0,136500.0,97000.0,87500.0,75000.0,65500.0,78000.0,76000.0,85500.0,90000.0,100000.0,116000.0,123500.0,118000.0,97000.0,90000.0,83500.0,76000.0,83500.0,81500.0,92000.0,97000.0,107000.0,124500.0,132500.0,126500.0,104000.0,97000.0,90000.0,81500.0,79500.0,77500.0,87500.0,92000.0,102000.0,118500.0,126000.0,120500.0,99000.0,92000.0,85500.0,77500.0,75500.0,73500.0,83000.0,87500.0,96500.0,112000.0,119500.0,114000.0,94000.0,87500.0,81000.0,73500.0,78500.0,77000.0,86500.0,91000.0,116000.0,199000.0,140000.0,125000.0,98000.0,98500.0,110000.0,94000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[8100.0,7850.0,8200.0,8550.0,9150.0,10400.0,13500.0,12250.0,10350.0,9250.0,8900.0,9300.0,8550.0,8100.0,8400.0,8700.0,9150.0,9850.0,10750.0,10300.0,9150.0,8550.0,8300.0,8750.0,8450.0,8050.0,8350.0,8850.0,12800.0,10900.0,11450.0,10500.0,9250.0,8650.0,8400.0,8850.0,8300.0,7950.0,8200.0,8500.0,8950.0,9550.0,10250.0,9850.0,8850.0,8300.0,8050.0,8450.0,8200.0,7950.0,8450.0,9000.0,10650.0,12250.0,14200.0,13050.0,11150.0,9850.0,9650.0,10150.0,9650.0,17100.0,11100.0,9850.0,10350.0,11100.0,11950.0,11350.0,10050.0,9350.0,9150.0,9650.0,9250.0,8950.0,9300.0,9800.0,10500.0,11350.0,12850.0,12250.0,10450.0,9700.0,9500.0,9900.0,9600.0,9150.0,9450.0,9800.0,10250.0,10850.0,11500.0,11050.0,9850.0,9250.0,8950.0,9350.0,9200.0,8750.0,9050.0,9400.0,9900.0,10400.0,11100.0,10700.0,9650.0,9050.0,8800.0,9200.0,8950.0,8500.0,8800.0,9100.0,9600.0,10150.0,13000.0,11100.0,9750.0,9100.0,8850.0,9250.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1500.0,1450.0,1350.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1300.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1050.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,820.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,870.0,870.0,830.0,830.0,850.0,830.0,920.0,950.0,1000.0,1080.0,1080.0,1020.0,920.0,920.0,880.0,880.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[6850.0,6350.0,7250.0,7550.0,8350.0,10120.0,10640.0,9620.0,9050.0,7920.0,7450.0,8580.0,7600.0,7150.0,8070.0,8480.0,9380.0,14550.0,14900.0,11700.0,10050.0,8880.0,8330.0,9650.0,7930.0,7330.0,8420.0,8750.0,9660.0,11730.0,12460.0,11210.0,10370.0,9210.0,8680.0,9990.0,8100.0,7560.0,8570.0,8980.0,9930.0,12130.0,12530.0,11870.0,10730.0,9480.0,8960.0,10270.0,8870.0,8400.0,9540.0,10450.0,11300.0,13300.0,16350.0,13960.0,11450.0,10150.0,9910.0,11270.0,9640.0,9130.0,10260.0,10820.0,11960.0,17250.0,18650.0,15750.0,12500.0,11310.0,10680.0,12270.0,9240.0,8660.0,9790.0,10340.0,11380.0,13830.0,14660.0,13130.0,12220.0,10860.0,10230.0,11810.0,8930.0,8340.0,9430.0,9930.0,11010.0,14450.0,14130.0,12670.0,11790.0,10450.0,9860.0,11330.0,8480.0,7940.0,8980.0,9460.0,10460.0,12730.0,13840.0,12100.0,11240.0,9980.0,9400.0,10800.0,8240.0,7720.0,8710.0,9190.0,10160.0,12370.0,12800.0,11780.0,10920.0,9690.0,9130.0,10470.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1550.0,1500.0,1650.0,1750.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,2150.0,1950.0,1800.0,1650.0,1700.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,1700.0,1950.0,2100.0,2250.0,2050.0,1850.0,1750.0,1600.0,1650.0,1450.0,1400.0,1550.0,1650.0,1900.0,2050.0,2150.0,2000.0,1800.0,1650.0,1550.0,1600.0,1400.0,1350.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1750.0,1650.0,1500.0,1450.0,1350.0,1450.0,1350.0,1300.0,1450.0,1550.0,1750.0,1950.0,2050.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1550.0,1400.0,1350.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,1950.0,1750.0,1650.0,1550.0,1600.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,1950.0,2050.0,1900.0,1750.0,1650.0,1550.0,1600.0,1450.0,1400.0,1550.0,1650.0,1850.0,2050.0,2150.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1650.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,1700.0,1950.0,2150.0,2250.0,2100.0,1900.0,1750.0,1650.0,1750.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3825.0,4050.0,4500.0,4725.0,5040.0,5400.0,5490.0,5310.0,4725.0,4500.0,4140.0,3960.0,3655.0,3870.0,4300.0,4515.0,4816.0,5160.0,5246.0,5074.0,4515.0,4300.0,3956.0,3784.0,3570.0,3780.0,4200.0,4410.0,4704.0,5040.0,5124.0,4956.0,4410.0,4200.0,3864.0,3696.0,3400.0,3600.0,4000.0,4200.0,4480.0,4800.0,4880.0,4720.0,4200.0,4000.0,3680.0,3520.0,3655.0,3870.0,4300.0,4515.0,4816.0,5676.0,5771.0,5581.0,4515.0,4300.0,3956.0,3784.0,3315.0,3510.0,3900.0,4095.0,4368.0,4680.0,4758.0,4602.0,4095.0,3900.0,3588.0,3432.0,3145.0,3330.0,3700.0,3885.0,4144.0,4440.0,4514.0,4366.0,3885.0,3700.0,3404.0,3256.0,2890.0,3060.0,3400.0,3570.0,3808.0,4080.0,4148.0,4012.0,3570.0,3400.0,3128.0,2992.0,2550.0,2700.0,3000.0,3150.0,3360.0,3600.0,3660.0,3540.0,3150.0,3000.0,2760.0,2640.0,2295.0,2430.0,2700.0,2835.0,3024.0,3240.0,3294.0,3186.0,2835.0,2700.0,2484.0,2376.0]}},{"title":"Toyota, Aichi","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Toyota, Aichi\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[7881,7113,7053,7169,6994,7760,6931,7529,7060,7473,7427,7202,7789,6571,7789,7152,7662,7616,7041,7843,7426,8104,8371,6917,8087,7163,8235,7614,8154,7819,8204,7834,7800,7811,7495,6630,6604,5588,6373,5899,6575,6902,7483,8320,15812,13917,7280,6666,8071,6882,6364,6963,6649,6019,6445,6627,6218,6708,6868,7901,7802,6671,7885,7542,7223,7383,9116,8146,6792,6982,6409,7025,7209,6318,6707,7299,64161,7755,7999,8594,7242,8158,8792,7751,8740,8626,9067,8429,8764,8600,8320,8350,8496,9035,8642,9538,11047,8769,9824,9983,9476,9560,8875,9210,9089,10102,9447,9524,11244,8513,9341,9334,8905,7953,8004,8626,7795,8539,8625,7413],"flat_reference_value":17028.043154206254,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2350.0,2450.0,2250.0,2300.0,2400.0,2350.0,2500.0,2450.0,2300.0,2450.0,2300.0,2550.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2450.0,2550.0,2500.0,2650.0,2550.0,2400.0,2600.0,2450.0,2700.0,2650.0,2800.0,2600.0,2650.0,2750.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2800.0,2650.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2850.0,3000.0,3300.0,8500.0,11000.0,3900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2750.0,2850.0,2950.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2850.0,3100.0,2900.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3250.0,3150.0,3000.0,3250.0,3050.0,3350.0,3250.0,3400.0,3150.0,3200.0,3300.0,3250.0,3450.0,4200.0,3150.0,3400.0,3150.0,3500.0,3400.0,3550.0,3300.0,3350.0,3450.0,3600.0,3700.0,4400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3650.0,3550.0,3700.0,3450.0,3500.0,3600.0,3550.0,3800.0,4600.0,3450.0,3650.0,3400.0,3800.0,3650.0,3800.0,3550.0,3600.0,3700.0,3650.0,3900.0,4700.0,3550.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[8420.0,7910.0,8540.0,8390.0,8610.0,7980.0,8150.0,8290.0,7860.0,8210.0,8040.0,7690.0,8350.0,7780.0,8490.0,8310.0,8450.0,7820.0,8010.0,8120.0,7790.0,8160.0,7950.0,7580.0,8240.0,7650.0,8380.0,8210.0,8340.0,7710.0,7960.0,8080.0,7840.0,8190.0,7920.0,7540.0,8310.0,7740.0,8460.0,8320.0,8510.0,7890.0,8140.0,8480.0,14620.0,15380.0,8940.0,7810.0,11450.0,8120.0,7180.0,6790.0,6950.0,6840.0,7060.0,7210.0,6980.0,7240.0,7090.0,6890.0,7480.0,9760.0,7620.0,7410.0,7530.0,7190.0,8430.0,8290.0,7280.0,7460.0,7310.0,7040.0,7590.0,7120.0,7740.0,7580.0,7690.0,7340.0,7520.0,7680.0,7610.0,8340.0,9420.0,7780.0,9180.0,8040.0,8720.0,8650.0,8790.0,8190.0,8380.0,8510.0,8260.0,8690.0,9540.0,7960.0,8580.0,8090.0,8760.0,8610.0,8680.0,8050.0,8240.0,8390.0,8110.0,8520.0,9280.0,7820.0,9840.0,7890.0,8510.0,8390.0,8460.0,7880.0,8060.0,8190.0,7940.0,8310.0,8960.0,7640.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5640.0,5420.0,5810.0,5730.0,5620.0,5390.0,5280.0,5450.0,5580.0,5890.0,5670.0,5150.0,5510.0,5380.0,5790.0,5640.0,5520.0,5310.0,5190.0,5340.0,5480.0,5720.0,5610.0,5080.0,5390.0,5120.0,5670.0,5540.0,5410.0,5230.0,5050.0,5190.0,5350.0,5620.0,5480.0,4970.0,5260.0,5050.0,5530.0,5410.0,5380.0,5190.0,5120.0,5490.0,7650.0,9320.0,5680.0,4890.0,5180.0,4920.0,4760.0,4410.0,4620.0,4810.0,4730.0,4890.0,5020.0,5180.0,5040.0,4650.0,4920.0,4780.0,5140.0,5080.0,5190.0,4950.0,5480.0,5620.0,5110.0,5270.0,5190.0,4680.0,4910.0,4720.0,5130.0,5060.0,5010.0,4840.0,4780.0,4930.0,5090.0,5420.0,6680.0,4830.0,4950.0,4710.0,5080.0,5020.0,4930.0,4760.0,4680.0,4810.0,4970.0,5310.0,6450.0,4690.0,4840.0,4620.0,4980.0,4910.0,4860.0,4650.0,4580.0,4740.0,4890.0,5180.0,6320.0,4540.0,4720.0,4510.0,4880.0,4830.0,4750.0,4580.0,4490.0,4620.0,4770.0,5090.0,6180.0,4460.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[10200.0,9800.0,10300.0,9700.0,9500.0,9100.0,8900.0,9000.0,9200.0,9500.0,9600.0,8900.0,9700.0,9300.0,9800.0,9200.0,9000.0,8700.0,8500.0,8600.0,8800.0,9100.0,9200.0,8500.0,9200.0,8900.0,9300.0,8800.0,8600.0,8300.0,8100.0,8200.0,8400.0,8700.0,8800.0,8100.0,8800.0,8500.0,8900.0,8400.0,8300.0,8000.0,7900.0,8200.0,10800.0,11500.0,8700.0,7800.0,8300.0,8000.0,7600.0,7300.0,7400.0,7300.0,7200.0,7300.0,7400.0,7600.0,7700.0,7200.0,7700.0,7400.0,7600.0,7200.0,7100.0,6900.0,7000.0,6900.0,6900.0,7100.0,7200.0,6700.0,7100.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0,6500.0,6600.0,6800.0,6900.0,6400.0,6800.0,6500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,6200.0,6300.0,6500.0,6600.0,6100.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,6200.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,5900.0,6000.0,6200.0,6300.0,5800.0,6200.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,5700.0,5500.0,5400.0,5500.0,5600.0,5800.0,5900.0,5500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[10200.0,9800.0,10100.0,9900.0,10300.0,9700.0,9900.0,10200.0,9600.0,9900.0,9800.0,9400.0,10300.0,9500.0,10000.0,9600.0,9900.0,9400.0,9600.0,9900.0,9300.0,9600.0,9500.0,9100.0,9800.0,8900.0,9400.0,9100.0,9300.0,8900.0,9200.0,9300.0,8800.0,9200.0,9100.0,8700.0,9300.0,8500.0,9000.0,8800.0,9000.0,8700.0,9000.0,9400.0,12500.0,13500.0,9200.0,8500.0,9000.0,8400.0,8300.0,8600.0,8900.0,8300.0,8200.0,8300.0,7900.0,8100.0,8000.0,7900.0,8300.0,7700.0,8100.0,7700.0,7800.0,7500.0,7900.0,7900.0,7400.0,7500.0,7500.0,7300.0,7700.0,7200.0,7700.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7500.0,8600.0,7200.0,7600.0,7000.0,7500.0,7300.0,7600.0,7200.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7500.0,8500.0,7100.0,7600.0,7100.0,7400.0,7200.0,7500.0,7200.0,7300.0,7400.0,7100.0,7400.0,8400.0,7000.0,7400.0,6900.0,7300.0,7200.0,7400.0,7100.0,7200.0,7300.0,7000.0,7200.0,8000.0,6900.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[8500.0,8100.0,8300.0,9600.0,8700.0,8900.0,8600.0,9200.0,8400.0,8200.0,8700.0,9100.0,8600.0,8200.0,8400.0,9000.0,8600.0,8800.0,8400.0,9300.0,8500.0,8300.0,8600.0,8900.0,8400.0,8000.0,8200.0,8900.0,8400.0,8700.0,8300.0,9100.0,8600.0,8400.0,8700.0,9000.0,8500.0,8100.0,8400.0,9100.0,8600.0,8900.0,8700.0,9500.0,13800.0,21500.0,11200.0,9400.0,8200.0,7500.0,10200.0,6800.0,6600.0,7400.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7300.0,7900.0,7800.0,7400.0,7700.0,8300.0,7900.0,8100.0,14200.0,12800.0,8800.0,8200.0,8100.0,8400.0,8200.0,9100.0,7800.0,7600.0,7400.0,7700.0,7500.0,7800.0,7400.0,7300.0,7500.0,7800.0,7600.0,7200.0,7400.0,8000.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,7900.0,7500.0,7300.0,7500.0,7900.0,7700.0,7300.0,7500.0,8100.0,7700.0,7900.0,7600.0,8900.0,7700.0,7500.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7400.0,7700.0,8600.0,8200.0,8400.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,7900.0,8300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2643.0,2387.0,2712.0,2695.0,2781.0,2543.0,2428.0,2619.0,2584.0,2773.0,2641.0,2395.0,2538.0,2289.0,2604.0,2517.0,2593.0,2436.0,2321.0,2478.0,2452.0,2620.0,2511.0,2274.0,2425.0,2178.0,2489.0,2403.0,2481.0,2315.0,2234.0,2367.0,2328.0,2506.0,2389.0,2182.0,2314.0,2093.0,2357.0,2298.0,2364.0,2217.0,2285.0,2412.0,4873.0,5346.0,2987.0,2264.0,2318.0,2145.0,1812.0,1489.0,1583.0,1714.0,1892.0,1847.0,1913.0,1984.0,1872.0,1728.0,1834.0,1697.0,1921.0,1875.0,1938.0,1842.0,2327.0,2451.0,1982.0,2034.0,1946.0,1783.0,1895.0,1724.0,1998.0,1943.0,2017.0,1891.0,1813.0,1948.0,1924.0,2056.0,1962.0,1797.0,1973.0,1802.0,2084.0,2019.0,2103.0,1967.0,1894.0,2028.0,2001.0,2142.0,2038.0,1871.0,2046.0,1928.0,2153.0,2091.0,2178.0,2034.0,1962.0,2097.0,2068.0,2214.0,2105.0,1933.0,2082.0,1904.0,2196.0,2131.0,2219.0,2078.0,2004.0,2145.0,2327.0,2258.0,2152.0,1978.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5500.0,5700.0,6200.0,6100.0,5600.0,5450.0,5350.0,5450.0,5700.0,5950.0,5850.0,5700.0,5650.0,5850.0,6350.0,6250.0,5750.0,5550.0,5450.0,5550.0,5850.0,6100.0,5950.0,5850.0,5750.0,5950.0,6450.0,6350.0,5850.0,5650.0,5550.0,5650.0,5950.0,6250.0,6100.0,5950.0,5850.0,6100.0,6600.0,6500.0,6000.0,5800.0,5650.0,5800.0,6550.0,6350.0,6200.0,6050.0,6050.0,6250.0,7450.0,7200.0,6700.0,6300.0,6050.0,6100.0,6400.0,6650.0,6850.0,6700.0,6850.0,7100.0,7200.0,6950.0,6850.0,6700.0,6550.0,6650.0,6850.0,7100.0,6950.0,6850.0,6950.0,7200.0,7800.0,7350.0,6950.0,6800.0,6700.0,6750.0,6950.0,7250.0,7100.0,6950.0,7100.0,7350.0,7650.0,7350.0,7100.0,6950.0,7000.0,7100.0,7250.0,7500.0,7650.0,8900.0,8350.0,7800.0,7900.0,7650.0,7350.0,7250.0,7250.0,7350.0,7500.0,7750.0,7650.0,7500.0,7650.0,7800.0,8050.0,8500.0,8200.0,7800.0,7650.0,7750.0,7900.0,8100.0,7800.0,7650.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1802.0,1734.0,1768.0,1683.0,1632.0,1598.0,1581.0,1547.0,1666.0,1700.0,1717.0,1768.0,1855.0,1785.0,1820.0,1733.0,1680.0,1645.0,1628.0,1593.0,1715.0,1750.0,1768.0,1820.0,1908.0,1836.0,1872.0,1782.0,1728.0,1692.0,1674.0,1638.0,1764.0,1800.0,1818.0,1872.0,2014.0,1938.0,1976.0,1881.0,1824.0,1786.0,1767.0,1729.0,4500.0,3800.0,2200.0,1976.0,2120.0,2040.0,2080.0,1980.0,1920.0,1880.0,1860.0,1820.0,1960.0,2000.0,2020.0,2080.0,2173.0,2091.0,2132.0,2030.0,1968.0,1927.0,1907.0,1866.0,2009.0,2050.0,2071.0,2132.0,2067.0,1989.0,2028.0,1931.0,1872.0,1833.0,1814.0,1775.0,1911.0,1950.0,1970.0,2028.0,1961.0,1887.0,1924.0,1832.0,1776.0,1739.0,1721.0,1684.0,1813.0,1850.0,1869.0,1924.0,1855.0,1785.0,1820.0,1733.0,1680.0,1645.0,1628.0,1593.0,1715.0,1750.0,1768.0,1820.0,1749.0,1683.0,1716.0,1634.0,1584.0,1551.0,1535.0,1502.0,1617.0,1650.0,1667.0,1716.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,3550.0,2900.0,2350.0,2600.0,2450.0,2550.0,3100.0,2450.0,2250.0,2500.0,2550.0,2850.0,2950.0,2850.0,2650.0,2800.0,2750.0,2850.0,2900.0,2750.0,2500.0,2850.0,2950.0,3250.0,3400.0,3250.0,3050.0,3200.0,3150.0,3300.0,3350.0,3150.0,2900.0,3200.0,3350.0,3650.0,3850.0,3700.0,3450.0,3600.0,3550.0,6850.0,5850.0,3550.0,3250.0,3600.0,3700.0,4700.0,5350.0,4700.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,4150.0,4200.0,4000.0,3650.0,3700.0,3800.0,4200.0,4400.0,4200.0,3900.0,6000.0,5300.0,4900.0,4300.0,4400.0,5250.0,3350.0,3800.0,3850.0,4000.0,3850.0,3600.0,3750.0,3700.0,3850.0,3950.0,3700.0,3400.0,5100.0,4100.0,3600.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3550.0,3500.0,3650.0,3750.0,3500.0,3550.0,3450.0,3100.0,3400.0,3550.0,5650.0,4950.0,4200.0,4500.0,4100.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,2850.0,2950.0,3250.0,5450.0,4400.0,3050.0,3200.0,3150.0,3300.0,3350.0,3150.0,2900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4090.0,3960.0,4430.0,4560.0,4470.0,4210.0,4690.0,4770.0,4130.0,4390.0,4210.0,4090.0,4370.0,4230.0,4740.0,4880.0,4780.0,4510.0,5010.0,5110.0,4420.0,4690.0,4510.0,4370.0,4660.0,4510.0,5050.0,5190.0,5100.0,4800.0,5340.0,5440.0,4700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4660.0,4940.0,4780.0,5360.0,5510.0,5410.0,5100.0,5670.0,5770.0,4990.0,5300.0,5100.0,4940.0,5320.0,5150.0,6900.0,5800.0,5820.0,5490.0,6100.0,6220.0,5380.0,5710.0,5490.0,5320.0,5800.0,5610.0,6280.0,6470.0,6340.0,5980.0,8310.0,8130.0,5860.0,6220.0,5980.0,5800.0,5320.0,5150.0,5770.0,5940.0,5820.0,5490.0,6100.0,6220.0,5380.0,5710.0,5490.0,5320.0,5190.0,5000.0,5460.0,5620.0,5510.0,5190.0,5780.0,5880.0,5090.0,5410.0,5190.0,5040.0,4940.0,5170.0,5890.0,5840.0,5840.0,5610.0,5670.0,5770.0,4990.0,5300.0,5100.0,4940.0,4750.0,4600.0,5150.0,5300.0,5200.0,4900.0,5450.0,5550.0,4800.0,5100.0,4900.0,4750.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3150.0,3470.0,2960.0,3240.0,3090.0,2860.0,2720.0,2910.0,3150.0,3440.0,3200.0,2830.0,3260.0,3660.0,3110.0,3340.0,3200.0,2960.0,2830.0,3020.0,3260.0,3540.0,3290.0,2910.0,3380.0,3820.0,3230.0,3450.0,3290.0,3070.0,2910.0,3100.0,3340.0,3670.0,3410.0,3010.0,3440.0,3910.0,3350.0,3620.0,3420.0,3180.0,3030.0,3230.0,3650.0,4520.0,4290.0,4760.0,4040.0,3900.0,4550.0,4280.0,4010.0,3710.0,3480.0,3640.0,3970.0,4310.0,3970.0,3460.0,3970.0,4360.0,3830.0,4100.0,3920.0,3660.0,4680.0,5550.0,3980.0,4310.0,4050.0,3640.0,3880.0,4480.0,3710.0,3990.0,3810.0,3550.0,3420.0,3570.0,3860.0,4160.0,3890.0,3430.0,4510.0,4820.0,4010.0,4320.0,4100.0,3800.0,4470.0,5280.0,4090.0,4580.0,4160.0,3630.0,4160.0,4610.0,3930.0,4160.0,3980.0,3700.0,4160.0,4570.0,4040.0,4310.0,4080.0,3650.0,4520.0,4810.0,4050.0,4380.0,4120.0,3820.0,3590.0,3740.0,4030.0,4280.0,4100.0,3720.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2700.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1378.0,1312.0,1785.0,2274.0,1826.0,1508.0,1756.0,2195.0,1617.0,1689.0,1628.0,1712.0,1332.0,1268.0,1705.0,2184.0,1760.0,1440.0,1698.0,2102.0,1530.0,1665.0,1552.0,1673.0,1296.0,1237.0,1645.0,2105.0,1721.0,1442.0,1618.0,2013.0,1489.0,1622.0,1508.0,1594.0,1253.0,1198.0,1630.0,2140.0,1668.0,1355.0,1605.0,1905.0,1472.0,1568.0,1482.0,1547.0,1095.0,1022.0,1295.0,1548.0,1462.0,1154.0,1309.0,1638.0,1245.0,1328.0,1231.0,1392.0,1228.0,1152.0,1575.0,1925.0,1613.0,1305.0,1558.0,1842.0,1389.0,1476.0,1438.0,1525.0,1345.0,1274.0,1748.0,2133.0,1780.0,1470.0,1705.0,2091.0,1528.0,1632.0,1594.0,1678.0,1468.0,1382.0,1899.0,2305.0,2080.0,1602.0,1810.0,2185.0,1744.0,1788.0,1731.0,1825.0,1577.0,1493.0,2060.0,2495.0,2112.0,1895.0,1952.0,2385.0,1872.0,1991.0,1822.0,1978.0,1742.0,1763.0,2336.0,3200.0,2620.0,2250.0,2385.0,2894.0,2450.0,2155.0,2118.0,2288.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1510.0,1370.0,1480.0,1410.0,1460.0,1340.0,1530.0,1460.0,1390.0,1480.0,1370.0,1440.0,1460.0,1330.0,1420.0,1370.0,1430.0,1330.0,1490.0,1400.0,1360.0,1440.0,1340.0,1390.0,1410.0,1290.0,1370.0,1320.0,1390.0,1300.0,1450.0,1370.0,1320.0,1410.0,1300.0,1350.0,1390.0,1280.0,1370.0,1340.0,1410.0,1320.0,1510.0,1450.0,2200.0,3600.0,2500.0,1580.0,1550.0,1460.0,1510.0,1300.0,1250.0,1310.0,1400.0,1360.0,1300.0,1390.0,1320.0,1370.0,1330.0,1250.0,1320.0,1280.0,1360.0,1290.0,1750.0,1580.0,1400.0,1450.0,1350.0,1400.0,1390.0,1290.0,1370.0,1320.0,1390.0,1310.0,1450.0,1390.0,1330.0,1430.0,1340.0,1400.0,1410.0,1300.0,1380.0,1330.0,1400.0,1320.0,1470.0,1390.0,1340.0,1450.0,1350.0,1410.0,1430.0,1320.0,1400.0,1350.0,1430.0,1340.0,1500.0,1420.0,1360.0,1530.0,1400.0,1460.0,1450.0,1330.0,1410.0,1360.0,1440.0,1350.0,1490.0,1410.0,1350.0,1450.0,1360.0,1420.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1932.0,1995.0,2268.0,2205.0,2100.0,2037.0,2058.0,1974.0,2142.0,2163.0,2100.0,2016.0,1886.0,1948.0,2214.0,2153.0,2050.0,1989.0,2009.0,1927.0,2091.0,2112.0,2050.0,1968.0,1840.0,1900.0,2160.0,2100.0,2000.0,1940.0,1960.0,1880.0,2040.0,2060.0,2000.0,1920.0,1794.0,1853.0,2106.0,2048.0,1950.0,1892.0,1911.0,1833.0,1989.0,2009.0,1950.0,1872.0,1914.0,1976.0,2246.0,2184.0,2080.0,2018.0,2038.0,1955.0,2122.0,2142.0,2080.0,1997.0,1748.0,1805.0,2052.0,1995.0,1900.0,1843.0,1862.0,1786.0,1938.0,1957.0,1900.0,1824.0,1610.0,1663.0,1890.0,1838.0,1750.0,1698.0,1715.0,1645.0,1785.0,1803.0,1750.0,1680.0,1472.0,1520.0,1728.0,1680.0,1600.0,1552.0,1568.0,1504.0,1632.0,1648.0,1600.0,1536.0,1288.0,1330.0,1512.0,1470.0,1400.0,1358.0,1372.0,1316.0,1428.0,1442.0,1400.0,1344.0,1150.0,1188.0,1350.0,1313.0,1250.0,1213.0,1225.0,1175.0,1275.0,1288.0,1250.0,1200.0]}},{"title":"Tourism in North Korea","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Tourism in North Korea\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[21548,15841,23112,13860,13755,9130,9139,15024,15082,9724,8839,9690,10633,13674,15317,31238,14404,68669,15445,20342,25297,11730,11885,10101,13034,14008,10627,10826,9869,14354,8598,9267,10280,9576,11083,14036,15139,14242,18956,14212,15804,18048,16158,16175,13731,15283,12900,17166,22362,25128,36952,78512,35466,17698,13537,12866,11026,11404,9756,9725,11666,10845,14866,12694,13812,15514,14485,20378,16191,18157,12210,12489,17269,13858,13370,11018,10518,7929,9452,11519,9068,10617,9434,9511,9837,9677,12492,10797,9408,10414,14335,15082,14874,10155,11103,12009,18455,13340,12981,12455,13676,16256,14128,16663,10257,12378,11325,12545,14952,9719,16089,11033,9568,12583,12060,10604,9565,7536,8144,7338],"flat_reference_value":16983.14836841411,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[19000.0,22000.0,21000.0,16000.0,15000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,17000.0,19000.0,25000.0,22000.0,85000.0,48000.0,41000.0,38000.0,27000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,29000.0,28000.0,42000.0,27000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,23000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,30000.0,22000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,21000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,17000.0,16000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,13000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,19000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,15000.0,23000.0,17000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[24500.0,19200.0,36800.0,21400.0,18900.0,16500.0,17100.0,18300.0,19600.0,17200.0,16400.0,15800.0,17500.0,19800.0,20400.0,31200.0,23600.0,82400.0,54300.0,38900.0,33100.0,22800.0,20500.0,18700.0,21300.0,26900.0,23400.0,29800.0,24600.0,38500.0,21900.0,19400.0,18800.0,17600.0,16900.0,17300.0,18500.0,24700.0,19200.0,18400.0,17900.0,26300.0,21500.0,18600.0,17100.0,16800.0,15900.0,15400.0,20800.0,16200.0,14500.0,19700.0,15800.0,13900.0,13200.0,12900.0,12100.0,11800.0,11400.0,11900.0,12400.0,11600.0,11900.0,11500.0,11200.0,10800.0,11100.0,10900.0,10400.0,10600.0,10200.0,10500.0,11200.0,10300.0,10700.0,10100.0,11800.0,9800.0,9900.0,10200.0,9600.0,10400.0,9700.0,9500.0,10300.0,9600.0,9900.0,9400.0,9200.0,9500.0,19400.0,14600.0,13800.0,11200.0,10400.0,10800.0,12600.0,22900.0,16400.0,13500.0,12400.0,15800.0,14200.0,26700.0,16900.0,14800.0,14100.0,16300.0,15900.0,25400.0,28100.0,17600.0,14900.0,19800.0,23500.0,16700.0,14300.0,13600.0,12900.0,13200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[22000.0,18200.0,35400.0,21100.0,18400.0,16500.0,17200.0,16300.0,17100.0,16400.0,15200.0,16100.0,17500.0,19300.0,18400.0,22100.0,20400.0,124800.0,64900.0,52100.0,44800.0,28300.0,24100.0,22300.0,21400.0,28200.0,25100.0,32300.0,27400.0,38100.0,24200.0,20300.0,22100.0,18400.0,16200.0,17100.0,17400.0,24300.0,21200.0,18100.0,16400.0,23200.0,20100.0,18300.0,17200.0,16100.0,15300.0,16200.0,24100.0,18300.0,15100.0,22400.0,16200.0,14100.0,12300.0,11400.0,11200.0,12100.0,11300.0,11500.0,12100.0,11200.0,11600.0,11100.0,10600.0,11200.0,10900.0,10500.0,11100.0,11300.0,11000.0,11600.0,11800.0,11200.0,12100.0,11600.0,12600.0,11900.0,11300.0,11100.0,11400.0,12200.0,12100.0,12500.0,12600.0,12100.0,12300.0,12100.0,12400.0,12900.0,19200.0,16100.0,14600.0,13600.0,13100.0,13700.0,14200.0,21300.0,16200.0,14600.0,14100.0,15600.0,14200.0,22100.0,16200.0,15100.0,14600.0,16100.0,16600.0,15600.0,15100.0,14600.0,14100.0,14600.0,15100.0,15600.0,14600.0,14100.0,13600.0,14100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[18000.0,12000.0,25000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,13000.0,10000.0,55000.0,30000.0,20000.0,14000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,13000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,8500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6500.0,6300.0,8000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4300.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4400.0,6000.0,5200.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,4800.0,4800.0,4600.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,5500.0,8000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5300.0,6000.0,9000.0,7000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[52000.0,42000.0,58000.0,40000.0,40000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,42000.0,45000.0,68000.0,55000.0,140000.0,75000.0,85000.0,75000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,55000.0,52000.0,48000.0,55000.0,52000.0,60000.0,46000.0,43000.0,44000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,40000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,33000.0,32000.0,40000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,36000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,29000.0,31000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,30000.0,44000.0,46000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,48000.0,34000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[7500.0,9000.0,14000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,6000.0,4800.0,4500.0,5200.0,5500.0,7000.0,6000.0,6500.0,5500.0,45000.0,32000.0,18000.0,11000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,10000.0,7500.0,11000.0,8500.0,16000.0,7500.0,6500.0,9500.0,6500.0,5500.0,6500.0,6500.0,13000.0,7500.0,5500.0,5000.0,10000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4500.0,5000.0,6500.0,4800.0,3200.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,2200.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,45000.0,14000.0,15000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,5800.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,6800.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,7500.0,12000.0,8000.0,9000.0,15000.0,10000.0,6000.0,4800.0,5200.0,14000.0,7500.0,6500.0,4800.0,4500.0,5000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[18423.0,13871.0,27456.0,11834.0,10215.0,10987.0,11234.0,10543.0,9234.0,9876.0,8765.0,8123.0,10123.0,9345.0,10456.0,9876.0,10892.0,85234.0,23456.0,14234.0,13245.0,11123.0,10234.0,9345.0,9876.0,16432.0,10234.0,11234.0,10456.0,21345.0,11234.0,10876.0,10123.0,9876.0,8765.0,8234.0,8765.0,15876.0,9234.0,8567.0,8934.0,11234.0,9345.0,9123.0,8234.0,8678.0,7890.0,7321.0,9123.0,7654.0,7123.0,7834.0,7245.0,7890.0,8123.0,7654.0,6890.0,7123.0,6543.0,5987.0,6234.0,5876.0,6123.0,5789.0,6023.0,6587.0,6723.0,6345.0,5678.0,5934.0,5421.0,4987.0,5678.0,5345.0,5789.0,5432.0,5876.0,6234.0,6456.0,6123.0,5543.0,5789.0,5234.0,4876.0,6234.0,5876.0,6345.0,5987.0,6321.0,6876.0,7023.0,6745.0,6023.0,6345.0,5789.0,5345.0,6789.0,10234.0,7234.0,6543.0,6876.0,7345.0,7567.0,7234.0,6543.0,6879.0,6234.0,5876.0,7123.0,14356.0,11876.0,7432.0,7654.0,8123.0,8345.0,7987.0,7123.0,7456.0,6789.0,6234.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[48000.0,23000.0,40000.0,22000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,23000.0,20000.0,21000.0,18000.0,23000.0,31000.0,40000.0,25000.0,23000.0,195000.0,120000.0,72000.0,82000.0,50000.0,55000.0,42000.0,42000.0,68000.0,52000.0,72000.0,62000.0,135000.0,52000.0,40000.0,54000.0,36000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,112000.0,52000.0,40000.0,43000.0,68000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,44000.0,38000.0,33000.0,58000.0,33000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,29000.0,27000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,34000.0,39000.0,32000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,82000.0,40000.0,44000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,31000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,34000.0,32000.0,29000.0,72000.0,62000.0,44000.0,100000.0,54000.0,44000.0,41000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,35000.0,32000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4500.0,3500.0,3200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,3500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,5000.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,12000.0,7000.0,5000.0,4500.0,3500.0,3000.0,2800.0,3500.0,5000.0,4500.0,7000.0,5500.0,12000.0,5000.0,4000.0,4500.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,6000.0,3500.0,3000.0,2800.0,5000.0,3200.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,3000.0,3500.0,2500.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,4000.0,3500.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,2500.0,3000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[6600.0,5600.0,11700.0,9270.0,7440.0,7750.0,7440.0,7130.0,9550.0,6510.0,5890.0,5270.0,6100.0,5850.0,6830.0,7480.0,7800.0,15400.0,11700.0,11200.0,11440.0,7500.0,6180.0,5530.0,7960.0,10370.0,10580.0,9100.0,8640.0,14400.0,9500.0,8280.0,11880.0,8320.0,6840.0,6120.0,5950.0,8190.0,11030.0,8050.0,8400.0,10500.0,14280.0,8050.0,7700.0,7350.0,6650.0,5950.0,6630.0,6440.0,4440.0,4110.0,4290.0,4710.0,4680.0,4490.0,4430.0,4230.0,3830.0,3320.0,3400.0,3600.0,4200.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4200.0,3800.0,3400.0,3660.0,4260.0,5640.0,4950.0,5160.0,5380.0,5160.0,4950.0,6150.0,4520.0,4090.0,3660.0,4400.0,4050.0,4730.0,5180.0,5400.0,5630.0,5400.0,5180.0,5450.0,4730.0,4280.0,3830.0,4420.0,7020.0,7100.0,5980.0,6240.0,9100.0,9360.0,7180.0,5720.0,7100.0,4940.0,4420.0,6410.0,6790.0,9740.0,6670.0,6960.0,7250.0,10440.0,8670.0,6380.0,6090.0,5510.0,4930.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[9000.0,8500.0,140000.0,32000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11200.0,11500.0,26000.0,9800.0,8800.0,8300.0,11500.0,11000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,400000.0,210000.0,130000.0,90000.0,30000.0,45000.0,16000.0,15000.0,130000.0,45000.0,160000.0,110000.0,500000.0,70000.0,22000.0,140000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,250000.0,90000.0,20000.0,18000.0,300000.0,80000.0,22000.0,25000.0,30000.0,18000.0,16000.0,90000.0,35000.0,160000.0,70000.0,25000.0,30000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,22000.0,12000.0,11000.0,8000.0,7500.0,8500.0,9500.0,8000.0,7800.0,8500.0,9000.0,14000.0,28000.0,9000.0,8000.0,12000.0,11000.0,60000.0,18000.0,250000.0,70000.0,20000.0,25000.0,40000.0,55000.0,65000.0,18000.0,11000.0,14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,11000.0,10000.0,13000.0,12000.0,75000.0,14000.0,40000.0,12000.0,12000.0,60000.0,16000.0,18000.0,14000.0,75000.0,16000.0,15000.0,18000.0,55000.0,40000.0,16000.0,13000.0,18000.0,14000.0,17000.0,15000.0,16000.0,90000.0,55000.0,95000.0,75000.0,18000.0,15000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[9800.0,11200.0,12400.0,13100.0,12200.0,13000.0,14500.0,13600.0,15800.0,14700.0,12000.0,10500.0,10900.0,11500.0,12800.0,14200.0,13900.0,15000.0,15800.0,20500.0,19800.0,16000.0,13700.0,12000.0,16000.0,25500.0,61000.0,73000.0,94000.0,111000.0,96000.0,58000.0,47000.0,31500.0,26500.0,22000.0,15800.0,17500.0,24500.0,17000.0,15200.0,15800.0,16800.0,14800.0,15800.0,14800.0,13500.0,12500.0,13500.0,16000.0,22500.0,26500.0,22000.0,16000.0,13500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,13000.0,14500.0,14500.0,16500.0,15500.0,14500.0,15000.0,16500.0,18000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16000.0,22000.0,25000.0,27500.0,24000.0,21500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,21500.0,24500.0,27000.0,29500.0,32000.0,30000.0,27500.0,34000.0,39500.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,40000.0,34000.0,30500.0,29500.0,31000.0,29500.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35500.0,34000.0,34500.0,38500.0,32000.0,30500.0,32000.0,36000.0,40000.0,43000.0,40500.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,40500.0,38500.0,37500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[7800.0,7000.0,7200.0,7500.0,7000.0,7400.0,7300.0,7100.0,7600.0,7000.0,6800.0,6700.0,7200.0,7600.0,8200.0,9500.0,8500.0,13500.0,10500.0,9800.0,9500.0,8800.0,8800.0,8000.0,8800.0,9800.0,9500.0,9500.0,9300.0,11500.0,9300.0,8800.0,9000.0,8300.0,7800.0,7500.0,8000.0,9000.0,8200.0,7800.0,7600.0,9500.0,8300.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,7000.0,6800.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4900.0,5200.0,5600.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5200.0,6200.0,7200.0,5800.0,5600.0,6500.0,7200.0,6600.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3245.0,2710.0,2268.0,2504.0,2361.0,2703.0,3298.0,3405.0,2861.0,2573.0,2356.0,2942.0,4236.0,6482.0,4360.0,3908.0,3652.0,4791.0,5639.0,17820.0,13650.0,6184.0,5092.0,4317.0,6903.0,14762.0,9218.0,18354.0,12106.0,24628.0,13205.0,10142.0,14218.0,8613.0,6982.0,9260.0,5237.0,13408.0,6124.0,5116.0,4809.0,11943.0,6570.0,7481.0,6832.0,5306.0,4315.0,5264.0,4267.0,5583.0,4318.0,10892.0,8461.0,5496.0,4235.0,3842.0,3618.0,4826.0,3417.0,4539.0,4819.0,6203.0,4021.0,3638.0,3426.0,3742.0,4237.0,4018.0,3906.0,4132.0,3214.0,5211.0,4512.0,4123.0,4418.0,4936.0,6247.0,5418.0,5239.0,6417.0,8213.0,9046.0,11032.0,9215.0,6842.0,7538.0,6621.0,7245.0,7012.0,8539.0,17892.0,12936.0,15870.0,9528.0,7031.0,10468.0,11038.0,8821.0,7846.0,8513.0,8234.0,14932.0,11967.0,10482.0,12941.0,9526.0,7812.0,11463.0,8516.0,7642.0,8034.0,9027.0,8819.0,10523.0,12981.0,13962.0,10994.0,9518.0,8217.0,9974.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1100.0,1050.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1600.0,1800.0,3200.0,2400.0,4000.0,3000.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2200.0,2600.0,3000.0,3400.0,6200.0,3900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,4400.0,3100.0,2600.0,2700.0,4800.0,3600.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2500.0,3000.0,4200.0,2200.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1700.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1200.0,1150.0,1400.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1300.0,2300.0,2500.0,1800.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,3000.0,2500.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1650.0,1600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2900.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,3300.0,2900.0,2800.0,2500.0,2900.0,3000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,12000.0,5500.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,2900.0,2800.0,3600.0,3300.0,3100.0,4600.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,4000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,3300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2600.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1800.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,3800.0,2600.0,2000.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0]}},{"title":"Frankfurter Würstchen","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Frankfurter Würstchen\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3326,3328,3166,3266,3468,3234,3675,3172,3521,4026,3410,3322,3183,3106,3244,3082,3313,3334,3333,3015,3124,3150,3277,3046,3504,3143,3504,3274,3593,3971,3950,3534,3360,3384,3068,2979,3276,3067,3851,3484,3716,3543,4397,3926,3592,3912,3939,3574,3701,3562,3749,5620,6700,5822,6341,5704,5512,5976,5791,5289,5805,5223,8054,5483,6020,7568,6331,5824,5699,5955,5050,5112,5744,4828,5600,6884,6701,5846,6469,6562,6306,6599,6427,5784,6340,6062,6804,6400,7825,7470,8769,7491,7419,7518,7233,7337,8133,6838,7361,7565,7954,8034,8455,7260,7061,7476,7281,7647,8922,6452,6754,6234,6851,6224,6898,6665,6059,6401,5760,5387],"flat_reference_value":17069.387702509455,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[1700.0,1550.0,1700.0,1750.0,1900.0,2050.0,2200.0,2050.0,1900.0,1950.0,1800.0,1950.0,1900.0,1750.0,1900.0,1950.0,2100.0,2250.0,2450.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,2150.0,2050.0,1900.0,2050.0,2100.0,2300.0,2450.0,2650.0,2500.0,2250.0,2350.0,2150.0,2300.0,2200.0,2000.0,2200.0,2250.0,2450.0,2600.0,2800.0,2650.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2450.0,2300.0,2150.0,2200.0,2300.0,2450.0,2550.0,2750.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2350.0,2550.0,2450.0,2250.0,2450.0,2500.0,2700.0,2850.0,3050.0,2900.0,2650.0,2750.0,2500.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0,2500.0,2550.0,2750.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,2650.0,2750.0,2500.0,2700.0,2450.0,2250.0,2450.0,2500.0,2700.0,2850.0,3050.0,2850.0,2600.0,2700.0,2450.0,2650.0,2400.0,2250.0,2400.0,2450.0,2650.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2550.0,2650.0,2400.0,2600.0,2350.0,2150.0,2350.0,2400.0,2600.0,2750.0,2950.0,2750.0,2500.0,2600.0,2350.0,2550.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4650.0,4280.0,4590.0,4620.0,5050.0,5280.0,6350.0,5190.0,5340.0,5680.0,4790.0,5120.0,4810.0,4390.0,4760.0,4830.0,5240.0,5410.0,6580.0,5360.0,5520.0,5890.0,4950.0,5270.0,4980.0,4480.0,4910.0,4960.0,5390.0,5580.0,6790.0,5490.0,5640.0,6020.0,5080.0,5410.0,5120.0,4610.0,5090.0,5140.0,5580.0,5720.0,7040.0,5680.0,5810.0,6190.0,5230.0,5590.0,5340.0,4890.0,5620.0,6480.0,6790.0,6540.0,7650.0,6320.0,6150.0,6420.0,5780.0,6090.0,5820.0,5190.0,5640.0,5580.0,5920.0,5980.0,7180.0,5840.0,5890.0,6210.0,5340.0,5670.0,5390.0,4780.0,5160.0,5190.0,5540.0,5630.0,6840.0,5490.0,5620.0,5980.0,5040.0,5380.0,5060.0,4490.0,4870.0,4890.0,5210.0,5320.0,6490.0,5180.0,5340.0,5640.0,4720.0,5080.0,4740.0,4320.0,4590.0,4610.0,4980.0,6180.0,6640.0,4950.0,5060.0,5380.0,4480.0,4820.0,4460.0,3980.0,4340.0,4380.0,4710.0,4840.0,5920.0,4690.0,4810.0,5120.0,4260.0,4590.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5320.0,4980.0,5210.0,5450.0,5890.0,6120.0,6780.0,6250.0,6940.0,7110.0,5540.0,5670.0,5480.0,5120.0,5560.0,5780.0,6210.0,6490.0,7050.0,6620.0,7380.0,7450.0,5810.0,5930.0,5790.0,5310.0,5840.0,6020.0,6430.0,6710.0,7320.0,6850.0,7610.0,7820.0,6050.0,6180.0,5910.0,5420.0,5970.0,6150.0,6580.0,6840.0,7450.0,6920.0,7590.0,7710.0,6040.0,6230.0,6120.0,5840.0,7180.0,8410.0,8650.0,7920.0,8250.0,7640.0,8110.0,8340.0,6920.0,6810.0,6550.0,5980.0,6410.0,6590.0,6870.0,7120.0,7730.0,7190.0,7880.0,7950.0,6320.0,6480.0,6210.0,5690.0,6080.0,6240.0,6570.0,6790.0,7340.0,6810.0,7450.0,7520.0,5980.0,6110.0,5830.0,5320.0,5710.0,5890.0,6240.0,6430.0,6980.0,6520.0,7140.0,7230.0,5710.0,5840.0,5580.0,5120.0,5490.0,5680.0,6010.0,6230.0,6750.0,6310.0,6920.0,7030.0,5510.0,5620.0,5390.0,4940.0,5310.0,5480.0,5810.0,6020.0,6520.0,6110.0,6680.0,6790.0,5320.0,5450.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[4600.0,4200.0,4450.0,4400.0,4500.0,4550.0,4850.0,4600.0,4350.0,4400.0,4350.0,4650.0,4450.0,4050.0,4300.0,4250.0,4350.0,4400.0,4700.0,4450.0,4200.0,4250.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,3950.0,4200.0,4150.0,4250.0,4300.0,4600.0,4350.0,4100.0,4150.0,4100.0,4400.0,4150.0,3800.0,4050.0,4000.0,4100.0,4150.0,4450.0,4200.0,3950.0,4000.0,3950.0,4250.0,4000.0,3700.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4050.0,3800.0,3850.0,3800.0,4050.0,3800.0,3500.0,3700.0,3650.0,3700.0,3750.0,4000.0,3750.0,3550.0,3600.0,3550.0,3800.0,3550.0,3250.0,3450.0,3400.0,3450.0,3500.0,3750.0,3500.0,3350.0,3350.0,3300.0,3550.0,3350.0,3050.0,3250.0,3200.0,3250.0,3300.0,3550.0,3300.0,3150.0,3150.0,3100.0,3350.0,3150.0,2900.0,3050.0,3000.0,3050.0,3150.0,3350.0,3100.0,2950.0,2950.0,2900.0,3150.0,2950.0,2700.0,2850.0,2800.0,2850.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,2750.0,2750.0,2700.0,2950.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[4800.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,5200.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,5100.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5000.0,4700.0,4800.0,4800.0,5200.0,5100.0,4700.0,4900.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5000.0,4700.0,4800.0,4800.0,5200.0,5200.0,4700.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,5000.0,5500.0,5100.0,4800.0,4900.0,4900.0,5300.0,5400.0,5000.0,5400.0,6200.0,6300.0,5900.0,6100.0,5700.0,5300.0,5300.0,5400.0,5800.0,5700.0,5100.0,5300.0,5100.0,5200.0,5100.0,5400.0,5000.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,5100.0,5000.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4900.0,4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4700.0,4700.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4700.0,4400.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4500.0,4500.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4500.0,4200.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,4300.0,4300.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,4000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2940.0,2610.0,2880.0,3120.0,3340.0,3720.0,4850.0,3940.0,3680.0,3230.0,2910.0,4210.0,3020.0,2740.0,3010.0,3310.0,3560.0,3940.0,5120.0,4130.0,3880.0,3420.0,3050.0,4420.0,3130.0,2810.0,3120.0,3410.0,3660.0,4040.0,5340.0,4230.0,4010.0,3520.0,3140.0,4620.0,3210.0,2890.0,3190.0,3520.0,3740.0,4130.0,5480.0,4310.0,4090.0,3610.0,3230.0,4710.0,3290.0,3080.0,4170.0,4780.0,5020.0,5230.0,6520.0,5180.0,4820.0,4310.0,3980.0,5610.0,3890.0,3480.0,3920.0,4310.0,4490.0,5010.0,6310.0,5020.0,4710.0,4080.0,3690.0,5290.0,3520.0,3090.0,3410.0,3630.0,3880.0,4280.0,5410.0,4430.0,4180.0,3690.0,3310.0,4890.0,3410.0,3010.0,3320.0,3510.0,3810.0,4190.0,5310.0,4330.0,4110.0,3620.0,3230.0,4810.0,3390.0,3020.0,3310.0,3590.0,4120.0,4780.0,6020.0,4610.0,5510.0,3910.0,3410.0,5120.0,3510.0,3120.0,3430.0,3710.0,4010.0,4520.0,6240.0,4720.0,4310.0,3820.0,3430.0,5230.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2215.0,1693.0,1824.0,1876.0,2031.0,2187.0,2312.0,2278.0,1985.0,1912.0,1884.0,2533.0,2110.0,1598.0,1735.0,1789.0,1924.0,2073.0,2201.0,2167.0,1888.0,1820.0,1791.0,2402.0,1941.0,1472.0,1598.0,1649.0,1773.0,1908.0,2030.0,1995.0,1736.0,1678.0,1645.0,2214.0,1832.0,1388.0,1507.0,1552.0,1671.0,1799.0,1915.0,1880.0,1634.0,1581.0,1550.0,2089.0,1885.0,1431.0,2005.0,2194.0,2058.0,1852.0,1973.0,1938.0,1686.0,1630.0,1599.0,2152.0,1888.0,1430.0,1552.0,1600.0,1721.0,1854.0,1971.0,1939.0,1685.0,1629.0,1598.0,2150.0,1776.0,1346.0,1461.0,1506.0,1620.0,1744.0,1857.0,1824.0,1586.0,1534.0,1504.0,2026.0,1665.0,1262.0,1369.0,1412.0,1519.0,1636.0,1740.0,1710.0,1487.0,1438.0,1410.0,1898.0,1554.0,1178.0,1278.0,1318.0,1418.0,1526.0,1625.0,1596.0,1388.0,1342.0,1316.0,1772.0,1499.0,1135.0,1232.0,1270.0,1367.0,1472.0,1566.0,1539.0,1338.0,1294.0,1268.0,1708.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[14200.0,12900.0,14600.0,15300.0,16400.0,18100.0,20500.0,17300.0,17800.0,15600.0,13800.0,14100.0,14800.0,13600.0,14900.0,15700.0,17400.0,19200.0,21600.0,18400.0,18600.0,16300.0,14700.0,15200.0,15300.0,14100.0,15600.0,16400.0,18300.0,20300.0,23200.0,19300.0,19800.0,17100.0,15400.0,15800.0,15900.0,14800.0,16300.0,17200.0,19100.0,21000.0,23500.0,20200.0,20700.0,18000.0,16100.0,16600.0,16900.0,15700.0,18200.0,19800.0,21300.0,23400.0,25600.0,22600.0,22100.0,19700.0,18000.0,18400.0,17900.0,16800.0,18600.0,19700.0,21900.0,24100.0,26300.0,23300.0,22800.0,20400.0,18400.0,18800.0,18300.0,17200.0,18900.0,20100.0,22500.0,24700.0,27100.0,23800.0,23300.0,20900.0,18900.0,19300.0,19100.0,17900.0,19700.0,20900.0,23400.0,25800.0,28200.0,24800.0,24300.0,21700.0,19600.0,20100.0,19800.0,18600.0,20500.0,21700.0,24300.0,28000.0,31000.0,25800.0,25300.0,22600.0,20400.0,20900.0,20200.0,19000.0,20800.0,22000.0,24600.0,27100.0,29800.0,26100.0,25500.0,22800.0,20500.0,20900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[280.0,240.0,250.0,265.0,290.0,305.0,320.0,280.0,255.0,265.0,275.0,310.0,300.0,270.0,260.0,285.0,315.0,330.0,345.0,300.0,275.0,285.0,300.0,330.0,320.0,290.0,280.0,305.0,335.0,350.0,370.0,325.0,295.0,310.0,320.0,350.0,340.0,310.0,300.0,325.0,360.0,375.0,390.0,350.0,315.0,330.0,340.0,380.0,360.0,320.0,340.0,380.0,400.0,410.0,420.0,370.0,340.0,350.0,370.0,410.0,390.0,350.0,340.0,365.0,400.0,420.0,440.0,390.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,430.0,360.0,330.0,320.0,345.0,380.0,400.0,415.0,370.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,400.0,340.0,310.0,300.0,325.0,355.0,375.0,390.0,350.0,315.0,330.0,340.0,380.0,320.0,290.0,280.0,305.0,335.0,350.0,365.0,325.0,295.0,310.0,320.0,350.0,310.0,280.0,270.0,295.0,325.0,340.0,355.0,315.0,285.0,300.0,310.0,340.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1930.0,1700.0,2000.0,1940.0,2245.0,2815.0,2805.0,2220.0,2140.0,1960.0,2060.0,2120.0,1955.0,1895.0,1975.0,2170.0,2295.0,2595.0,2625.0,2475.0,2125.0,2190.0,2145.0,2345.0,2155.0,1890.0,2200.0,2205.0,2555.0,3375.0,3500.0,2520.0,2390.0,2180.0,2340.0,2385.0,2165.0,2100.0,2230.0,2450.0,2535.0,2845.0,2965.0,2795.0,2425.0,2405.0,2375.0,2645.0,2295.0,2235.0,3715.0,4125.0,3720.0,3080.0,3445.0,2770.0,2650.0,2400.0,2500.0,2840.0,2430.0,2140.0,2510.0,2490.0,2855.0,3725.0,3955.0,2850.0,2725.0,2465.0,2620.0,2695.0,2225.0,2160.0,2250.0,2465.0,2930.0,2780.0,3175.0,2680.0,2565.0,2365.0,3205.0,3135.0,2175.0,1915.0,2200.0,2180.0,2430.0,2720.0,2785.0,2620.0,2270.0,2295.0,2250.0,2510.0,2015.0,1805.0,2100.0,2080.0,2415.0,3615.0,3655.0,2355.0,2255.0,2080.0,2230.0,2255.0,1915.0,1685.0,1975.0,1960.0,2250.0,2280.0,2600.0,2240.0,2140.0,1940.0,2080.0,2100.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2904.0,3186.0,3168.0,3300.0,3498.0,4196.0,5406.0,3795.0,3715.0,4676.0,3168.0,3798.0,2992.0,3278.0,3264.0,3400.0,3604.0,4208.0,5038.0,3910.0,3820.0,4798.0,3264.0,3904.0,3080.0,3370.0,3360.0,3500.0,3710.0,5220.0,5970.0,4025.0,3925.0,4920.0,3360.0,4010.0,3168.0,3462.0,3456.0,3600.0,3816.0,4632.0,5602.0,4140.0,4030.0,5042.0,3456.0,4116.0,3256.0,3554.0,3552.0,3950.0,4172.0,4394.0,5334.0,4455.0,3885.0,4514.0,3552.0,4222.0,3344.0,3646.0,3648.0,3800.0,4028.0,5556.0,6566.0,4370.0,3990.0,4636.0,3648.0,4328.0,3168.0,3462.0,3456.0,3600.0,3816.0,4032.0,4902.0,4140.0,4030.0,5042.0,4456.0,5216.0,2992.0,3278.0,3264.0,3400.0,3604.0,3808.0,5438.0,4510.0,3820.0,4798.0,3264.0,3904.0,2816.0,3094.0,3072.0,3200.0,3392.0,5784.0,6774.0,3680.0,3610.0,4554.0,3072.0,3692.0,2640.0,2910.0,2880.0,3000.0,3180.0,3360.0,4110.0,3450.0,3400.0,4310.0,2880.0,3480.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1920.0,1750.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,2100.0,2200.0,2150.0,1900.0,2050.0,1950.0,2050.0,1980.0,1800.0,1960.0,1900.0,2010.0,2160.0,2260.0,2210.0,1960.0,2110.0,2010.0,2110.0,2050.0,1870.0,2030.0,1970.0,2080.0,2240.0,2340.0,2290.0,2030.0,2180.0,2080.0,2180.0,2160.0,1960.0,2140.0,2080.0,2200.0,2370.0,2470.0,2410.0,2140.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2260.0,2100.0,2900.0,3200.0,3300.0,2850.0,3000.0,2950.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2850.0,2300.0,2100.0,2350.0,2250.0,2400.0,2550.0,2700.0,2800.0,2500.0,2650.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2200.0,2500.0,2450.0,2550.0,2700.0,2850.0,2750.0,2450.0,2700.0,2750.0,2650.0,2350.0,2150.0,2350.0,2300.0,2450.0,2600.0,2750.0,2650.0,2400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2450.0,2250.0,2450.0,2400.0,2550.0,2750.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2250.0,2500.0,2400.0,2550.0,2750.0,2800.0,2700.0,2450.0,2700.0,2550.0,2650.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[300.0,280.0,290.0,290.0,300.0,310.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,320.0,370.0,320.0,290.0,300.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,330.0,380.0,330.0,300.0,310.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,320.0,340.0,390.0,340.0,310.0,320.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,350.0,400.0,350.0,320.0,340.0,360.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,340.0,360.0,410.0,360.0,330.0,340.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,350.0,370.0,420.0,370.0,340.0,350.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,360.0,380.0,430.0,380.0,350.0,360.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,370.0,390.0,440.0,390.0,360.0,370.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,400.0,450.0,400.0,370.0,380.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,390.0,410.0,460.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[663.0,711.0,772.0,824.0,938.0,945.0,1165.0,989.0,970.0,857.0,909.0,1083.0,702.0,748.0,821.0,857.0,986.0,1002.0,1239.0,1035.0,1022.0,913.0,950.0,1142.0,743.0,789.0,854.0,915.0,1024.0,1058.0,1287.0,1104.0,1066.0,962.0,999.0,1201.0,781.0,826.0,900.0,959.0,1078.0,1112.0,1349.0,1160.0,1119.0,1011.0,1047.0,1262.0,893.0,943.0,1062.0,1142.0,1248.0,1268.0,1615.0,1332.0,1292.0,1153.0,1218.0,1478.0,980.0,1035.0,1140.0,1190.0,1350.0,1385.0,1850.0,1640.0,1415.0,1265.0,1335.0,1655.0,966.0,1018.0,1120.0,1178.0,1345.0,1369.0,1715.0,1462.0,1403.0,1242.0,1306.0,1578.0,899.0,944.0,1028.0,1095.0,1238.0,1265.0,1558.0,1325.0,1293.0,1142.0,1219.0,1468.0,805.0,848.0,930.0,980.0,1110.0,1135.0,1480.0,1275.0,1160.0,1035.0,1090.0,1300.0,770.0,810.0,890.0,935.0,1065.0,1090.0,1345.0,1145.0,1120.0,1000.0,1045.0,1255.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[260.0,250.0,270.0,255.0,275.0,290.0,310.0,285.0,275.0,330.0,270.0,300.0,250.0,240.0,265.0,250.0,270.0,280.0,295.0,275.0,265.0,320.0,260.0,290.0,245.0,230.0,250.0,240.0,260.0,270.0,285.0,265.0,250.0,305.0,255.0,280.0,230.0,225.0,245.0,235.0,250.0,265.0,275.0,260.0,245.0,295.0,245.0,270.0,245.0,235.0,260.0,290.0,315.0,285.0,290.0,275.0,260.0,310.0,265.0,290.0,240.0,230.0,250.0,240.0,255.0,265.0,280.0,265.0,250.0,300.0,255.0,280.0,230.0,220.0,240.0,230.0,245.0,255.0,270.0,250.0,240.0,285.0,245.0,265.0,220.0,210.0,230.0,220.0,235.0,245.0,255.0,240.0,225.0,275.0,235.0,255.0,210.0,200.0,220.0,215.0,225.0,235.0,250.0,235.0,220.0,265.0,230.0,245.0,200.0,195.0,215.0,205.0,220.0,230.0,240.0,225.0,215.0,255.0,220.0,235.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[380.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,400.0,430.0,440.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,370.0,350.0,370.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,390.0,420.0,430.0,410.0,390.0,380.0,360.0,340.0,360.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,380.0,410.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,350.0,330.0,350.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,370.0,400.0,410.0,390.0,370.0,360.0,340.0,320.0,340.0,340.0,380.0,400.0,420.0,440.0,440.0,420.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,350.0,360.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,380.0,400.0,410.0,390.0,370.0,360.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,360.0,380.0,390.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,330.0,320.0,320.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,350.0,370.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,320.0,310.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,340.0,360.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,310.0,300.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,310.0,330.0,350.0,360.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,300.0,290.0]}},{"title":"Rail transport","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Rail transport\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[30449,29909,28162,24904,28406,26313,23955,26601,29078,33283,34870,31091,35717,32017,31289,24211,27267,24513,22852,23773,24305,28662,29661,26708,33450,30386,30562,27323,29664,27779,29701,31501,28484,32474,35129,34980,36237,30371,30139,30171,30177,26593,23785,24839,29173,38815,37445,27935,31736,29345,26950,28956,29206,22824,21932,24026,26394,27948,27522,26865,28606,26018,29261,26445,27572,23542,25610,26781,28194,28293,27623,26760,29387,26993,27348,25331,30137,28252,25380,31241,26301,27904,28010,26432,27811,23495,25206,23687,24224,22518,21469,23495,22827,22829,23308,21197,22948,21003,21271,19275,19645,16665,16155,16187,16866,18718,18345,17146,18809,14803,16047,14107,15972,12748,13030,13700,14078,14054,14401,12957],"flat_reference_value":16929.50486418816,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[55000.0,57000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,57000.0,61000.0,59000.0,52000.0,56000.0,58000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,53000.0,59000.0,63000.0,61000.0,53000.0,58000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,56000.0,54000.0,55000.0,61000.0,65000.0,63000.0,55000.0,60000.0,62000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,63000.0,67000.0,65000.0,57000.0,62000.0,63000.0,61000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,52000.0,54000.0,61000.0,65000.0,63000.0,56000.0,61000.0,62000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,63000.0,67000.0,65000.0,57000.0,62000.0,63000.0,67000.0,65000.0,63000.0,61000.0,58000.0,59000.0,65000.0,68000.0,66000.0,59000.0,63000.0,65000.0,68000.0,65000.0,64000.0,60000.0,58000.0,59000.0,65000.0,68000.0,66000.0,58000.0,62000.0,63000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,63000.0,66000.0,64000.0,56000.0,60000.0,61000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,56000.0,54000.0,55000.0,61000.0,64000.0,62000.0,54000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[89500.0,85200.0,93800.0,91400.0,92600.0,81500.0,79800.0,81200.0,88400.0,95600.0,93100.0,83400.0,88900.0,82700.0,94200.0,90800.0,92100.0,80900.0,79200.0,80600.0,87900.0,94800.0,92400.0,82600.0,87800.0,81500.0,92900.0,89700.0,90800.0,79600.0,78400.0,79900.0,86800.0,93500.0,90900.0,81400.0,86900.0,80800.0,91800.0,88600.0,89900.0,78800.0,77900.0,79300.0,86100.0,92400.0,89700.0,80500.0,86200.0,82400.0,78500.0,74800.0,76200.0,72900.0,73400.0,75100.0,82300.0,88400.0,85900.0,77800.0,82600.0,76800.0,86400.0,83900.0,84700.0,74600.0,73500.0,74900.0,80800.0,86500.0,84200.0,75600.0,80100.0,74500.0,83800.0,81200.0,82300.0,72800.0,71900.0,73400.0,81500.0,85400.0,86200.0,78900.0,79400.0,78600.0,82900.0,79500.0,80400.0,77200.0,71400.0,72100.0,77600.0,82400.0,79800.0,71900.0,74600.0,71200.0,76800.0,74500.0,75100.0,66400.0,65200.0,66500.0,71400.0,75800.0,73200.0,65900.0,68400.0,63500.0,70900.0,68700.0,69400.0,61200.0,60300.0,61500.0,66200.0,70400.0,68100.0,61400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[46500.0,49200.0,51400.0,48700.0,45300.0,38100.0,35400.0,37200.0,46100.0,50800.0,51900.0,39800.0,44300.0,46700.0,49100.0,46200.0,43500.0,36700.0,34100.0,35900.0,44500.0,48300.0,49600.0,38200.0,42800.0,44900.0,47200.0,44500.0,41800.0,35200.0,32900.0,34600.0,42700.0,46500.0,47300.0,36400.0,40900.0,42800.0,45100.0,42600.0,39700.0,33400.0,31100.0,33200.0,40800.0,44200.0,45100.0,34900.0,39200.0,41100.0,38600.0,37500.0,36800.0,32400.0,30500.0,31900.0,38900.0,41800.0,42700.0,33100.0,37100.0,39000.0,41400.0,39200.0,36400.0,30800.0,28900.0,30400.0,37500.0,40600.0,41300.0,31800.0,35600.0,37400.0,39800.0,37700.0,34900.0,29600.0,27700.0,29200.0,35800.0,38900.0,39600.0,30400.0,34100.0,35800.0,38100.0,36000.0,33300.0,28100.0,26400.0,27800.0,34200.0,37100.0,37900.0,28900.0,32400.0,34100.0,36200.0,34300.0,31700.0,26800.0,25100.0,26500.0,32500.0,35300.0,36000.0,27500.0,30900.0,32500.0,34600.0,32700.0,30200.0,25500.0,23900.0,25200.0,31000.0,33600.0,34300.0,26200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[56000.0,58800.0,60500.0,57100.0,56000.0,49300.0,45900.0,47600.0,54900.0,58800.0,59400.0,49300.0,52000.0,54600.0,56200.0,53000.0,52000.0,45800.0,42600.0,44200.0,51000.0,54600.0,55100.0,45800.0,48000.0,50400.0,51800.0,49000.0,48000.0,42200.0,39400.0,40800.0,47000.0,50400.0,50900.0,42200.0,45000.0,47300.0,48600.0,45900.0,45000.0,39600.0,36900.0,38300.0,44100.0,47300.0,47700.0,39600.0,42000.0,44100.0,43000.0,38000.0,38500.0,35000.0,33000.0,34500.0,40000.0,43000.0,43500.0,36000.0,39000.0,41000.0,42100.0,39800.0,39000.0,34300.0,32000.0,33200.0,38200.0,41000.0,41300.0,34300.0,37000.0,38900.0,40000.0,37700.0,37000.0,32600.0,30300.0,31500.0,36300.0,38900.0,39200.0,32600.0,35000.0,36800.0,37800.0,35700.0,35000.0,30800.0,28700.0,29800.0,34300.0,36800.0,37100.0,30800.0,33000.0,34700.0,35600.0,33700.0,33000.0,29000.0,27100.0,28100.0,32300.0,34700.0,35000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32600.0,33500.0,31600.0,31000.0,27300.0,25400.0,26400.0,30400.0,32600.0,32900.0,27300.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[79000.0,77000.0,81000.0,75000.0,76000.0,67000.0,65000.0,66000.0,74000.0,78000.0,77000.0,68000.0,72000.0,69000.0,72000.0,66000.0,67000.0,59000.0,57000.0,58000.0,65000.0,68000.0,67000.0,58000.0,62000.0,59000.0,61000.0,56000.0,57000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,55000.0,58000.0,57000.0,50000.0,55000.0,52000.0,54000.0,50000.0,51000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,50000.0,52000.0,51000.0,45000.0,49000.0,46000.0,46000.0,48000.0,49000.0,44000.0,41000.0,40000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,40000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,40000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,35000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,32000.0,35000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,26000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[42300.0,40900.0,44600.0,43700.0,46200.0,47000.0,50100.0,48900.0,46300.0,43600.0,42800.0,50400.0,41500.0,39100.0,44300.0,42700.0,45400.0,45800.0,49000.0,47700.0,45300.0,42500.0,41000.0,48900.0,40400.0,38200.0,43400.0,41600.0,44200.0,44800.0,48000.0,46900.0,44300.0,41700.0,39900.0,48000.0,39400.0,37300.0,42500.0,40700.0,43200.0,43600.0,46800.0,45700.0,43300.0,40800.0,39000.0,46800.0,37600.0,35400.0,33200.0,29500.0,31800.0,33900.0,36200.0,37400.0,38300.0,37000.0,35500.0,41400.0,36700.0,34600.0,37200.0,36000.0,38400.0,39900.0,42000.0,41000.0,39300.0,37500.0,36000.0,43000.0,35700.0,33600.0,37000.0,36600.0,38900.0,40400.0,42200.0,41100.0,38800.0,36600.0,35100.0,42100.0,34600.0,63500.0,47200.0,35700.0,38000.0,38900.0,41000.0,40100.0,37900.0,35600.0,34100.0,40900.0,33600.0,32000.0,36300.0,35100.0,36900.0,38400.0,40000.0,39000.0,36900.0,35100.0,33600.0,40000.0,33100.0,31100.0,35300.0,34100.0,35900.0,36800.0,38900.0,38100.0,35900.0,34100.0,32600.0,38800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[31450.0,25830.0,32110.0,29460.0,30720.0,27380.0,25940.0,26210.0,30580.0,32240.0,28870.0,24410.0,30960.0,24790.0,31520.0,28930.0,30140.0,26850.0,25420.0,25980.0,30070.0,31680.0,28310.0,24050.0,29540.0,23980.0,30490.0,27820.0,29110.0,25900.0,24560.0,24930.0,29020.0,30560.0,27340.0,23120.0,28780.0,23050.0,29360.0,26890.0,28010.0,24980.0,23670.0,24040.0,27950.0,29420.0,26310.0,22300.0,27150.0,22180.0,33540.0,31480.0,28120.0,24100.0,22340.0,22670.0,26410.0,27730.0,24860.0,21020.0,26620.0,21340.0,27180.0,24810.0,25900.0,23050.0,21870.0,22230.0,25890.0,27210.0,24320.0,20610.0,25510.0,20420.0,26070.0,23800.0,24860.0,22140.0,20980.0,21320.0,24810.0,26130.0,23340.0,19750.0,24970.0,23840.0,27250.0,23310.0,24320.0,21680.0,20540.0,20890.0,24280.0,25560.0,22850.0,19320.0,24450.0,19920.0,24960.0,22810.0,23800.0,21210.0,20080.0,20410.0,23760.0,25020.0,22370.0,18940.0,23910.0,19120.0,24430.0,22300.0,23280.0,20750.0,19640.0,19970.0,23240.0,24480.0,21860.0,18450.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[53000.0,51000.0,51500.0,50000.0,49500.0,48000.0,46500.0,47500.0,51000.0,52000.0,50500.0,49500.0,54600.0,52500.0,53000.0,51500.0,51000.0,49400.0,47900.0,48900.0,52500.0,53600.0,52000.0,51000.0,56200.0,54100.0,54600.0,53000.0,52500.0,50900.0,49300.0,50400.0,54100.0,55100.0,53500.0,52500.0,57800.0,55600.0,56100.0,54500.0,54000.0,52300.0,50700.0,51800.0,55600.0,56700.0,55000.0,54000.0,61000.0,58600.0,69900.0,66100.0,63800.0,59600.0,56700.0,57400.0,61000.0,61600.0,59800.0,58100.0,61500.0,59200.0,59700.0,58000.0,59100.0,55700.0,53900.0,55100.0,59200.0,60300.0,58600.0,57400.0,60400.0,61600.0,61100.0,57000.0,56400.0,54700.0,53000.0,54200.0,58100.0,59300.0,57600.0,56400.0,62000.0,64400.0,62100.0,58500.0,57900.0,61800.0,54400.0,55600.0,59700.0,63900.0,59100.0,57900.0,64100.0,61700.0,62300.0,60500.0,59900.0,58100.0,56300.0,57500.0,61700.0,62900.0,61100.0,59900.0,63600.0,61200.0,61800.0,60000.0,59400.0,57600.0,55800.0,57000.0,61200.0,62400.0,60600.0,59400.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[50100.0,47800.0,49600.0,49100.0,46900.0,44400.0,43800.0,45700.0,51100.0,52000.0,50000.0,45900.0,48100.0,45900.0,47600.0,46800.0,45200.0,42600.0,41600.0,43900.0,49000.0,49800.0,47700.0,44300.0,46400.0,44400.0,46000.0,45500.0,43500.0,41200.0,40300.0,42400.0,47300.0,48200.0,46400.0,42600.0,44900.0,42900.0,44500.0,43900.0,42000.0,39800.0,39000.0,41000.0,45700.0,46600.0,44800.0,41100.0,42800.0,40900.0,42400.0,41400.0,39900.0,37900.0,37100.0,39000.0,43600.0,44500.0,42700.0,39200.0,41800.0,39900.0,41400.0,40700.0,39100.0,37000.0,36300.0,38100.0,42600.0,43400.0,41700.0,38300.0,40200.0,38400.0,39800.0,39200.0,37600.0,35700.0,34900.0,36600.0,41000.0,41800.0,40100.0,36800.0,38600.0,39800.0,38200.0,37600.0,36200.0,34300.0,33500.0,35200.0,39400.0,40100.0,38500.0,35400.0,36600.0,34900.0,36200.0,35600.0,34200.0,32400.0,31700.0,33300.0,37300.0,38000.0,36500.0,33500.0,34500.0,32900.0,34100.0,33600.0,32200.0,30500.0,29900.0,31400.0,35100.0,35800.0,34400.0,31600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[35200.0,33800.0,36500.0,34200.0,33600.0,31800.0,30500.0,31200.0,39800.0,37400.0,34100.0,30800.0,36800.0,35100.0,37800.0,35600.0,34900.0,33200.0,31800.0,32600.0,38900.0,38200.0,35400.0,32100.0,37500.0,36900.0,39200.0,36800.0,36100.0,34700.0,33100.0,33900.0,40200.0,39400.0,36600.0,33200.0,39400.0,38100.0,40500.0,38600.0,37200.0,35800.0,34200.0,35100.0,41800.0,40700.0,37800.0,34400.0,40100.0,39200.0,48500.0,47200.0,41800.0,38500.0,36100.0,37400.0,43800.0,42900.0,39800.0,36500.0,38800.0,37600.0,39400.0,37800.0,36400.0,34800.0,33300.0,34100.0,40500.0,39600.0,36800.0,33400.0,37200.0,42400.0,45200.0,38100.0,36500.0,39800.0,41500.0,40200.0,41200.0,39500.0,36400.0,32800.0,35600.0,54800.0,48900.0,36800.0,35200.0,46200.0,32800.0,33600.0,38500.0,40200.0,35800.0,31900.0,34200.0,33100.0,35400.0,33800.0,32400.0,30900.0,29600.0,30300.0,36200.0,35100.0,32700.0,29600.0,31800.0,30700.0,32600.0,31100.0,29800.0,28600.0,27300.0,27900.0,33400.0,32400.0,30100.0,27200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[217800.0,198000.0,235400.0,222200.0,222200.0,230352.0,202400.0,204600.0,235400.0,254100.0,237600.0,195800.0,225720.0,205200.0,243960.0,230280.0,230280.0,221160.0,209760.0,212040.0,243960.0,239400.0,246240.0,243504.0,232650.0,211500.0,251450.0,237350.0,237350.0,227950.0,237820.0,218550.0,251450.0,246750.0,253800.0,240523.0,237600.0,216000.0,256800.0,242400.0,271488.0,232800.0,220800.0,223200.0,256800.0,252000.0,259200.0,213600.0,252450.0,237660.0,341063.0,309060.0,283305.0,247350.0,234600.0,237150.0,272850.0,267750.0,275400.0,226950.0,262350.0,238500.0,294892.0,267650.0,267650.0,257050.0,280370.0,246450.0,283550.0,278250.0,286200.0,235850.0,247500.0,247500.0,288900.0,252500.0,252500.0,242500.0,230000.0,232500.0,267500.0,262500.0,270000.0,222500.0,225720.0,451440.0,353742.0,276336.0,230280.0,221160.0,209760.0,212040.0,243960.0,239400.0,246240.0,202920.0,205920.0,193856.0,222560.0,210080.0,210080.0,211848.0,200928.0,205046.0,222560.0,218400.0,224640.0,185120.0,188100.0,171000.0,203300.0,191900.0,191900.0,184300.0,174800.0,190836.0,260224.0,211470.0,205200.0,169100.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1310000.0,1240000.0,1270000.0,1250000.0,1230000.0,1190000.0,1170000.0,1160000.0,1230000.0,1280000.0,1270000.0,1160000.0,1330000.0,1250000.0,1280000.0,1260000.0,1240000.0,1210000.0,1180000.0,1170000.0,1240000.0,1290000.0,1280000.0,1170000.0,1320000.0,1240000.0,1270000.0,1240000.0,1220000.0,1180000.0,1160000.0,1150000.0,1220000.0,1270000.0,1260000.0,1150000.0,1300000.0,1220000.0,1250000.0,1220000.0,1200000.0,1160000.0,1140000.0,1130000.0,1200000.0,1250000.0,1240000.0,1130000.0,1310000.0,1250000.0,1480000.0,1630000.0,1580000.0,1400000.0,1300000.0,1280000.0,1380000.0,1460000.0,1430000.0,1280000.0,1300000.0,1220000.0,1300000.0,1260000.0,1230000.0,1180000.0,1150000.0,1140000.0,1240000.0,1300000.0,1290000.0,1160000.0,1230000.0,1160000.0,1280000.0,1220000.0,1180000.0,1130000.0,1100000.0,1090000.0,1190000.0,1250000.0,1240000.0,1110000.0,1200000.0,1130000.0,1180000.0,1140000.0,1110000.0,1080000.0,1100000.0,1070000.0,1160000.0,1220000.0,1210000.0,1090000.0,1180000.0,1110000.0,1150000.0,1120000.0,1090000.0,1050000.0,1020000.0,1010000.0,1100000.0,1160000.0,1150000.0,1030000.0,1120000.0,1050000.0,1090000.0,1060000.0,1030000.0,990000.0,970000.0,960000.0,1050000.0,1110000.0,1100000.0,990000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[118000.0,122000.0,125000.0,120000.0,122000.0,105000.0,98000.0,100000.0,120000.0,126000.0,124000.0,105000.0,123000.0,126000.0,130000.0,119000.0,122000.0,105000.0,98000.0,101000.0,121000.0,127000.0,125000.0,106000.0,122000.0,125000.0,128000.0,120000.0,121000.0,103000.0,96000.0,99000.0,119000.0,125000.0,123000.0,104000.0,120000.0,124000.0,126000.0,119000.0,119000.0,101000.0,95000.0,98000.0,118000.0,123000.0,121000.0,102000.0,119000.0,122000.0,118000.0,115000.0,105000.0,96000.0,92000.0,94000.0,112000.0,118000.0,116000.0,98000.0,115000.0,118000.0,121000.0,114000.0,112000.0,96000.0,91000.0,94000.0,112000.0,118000.0,116000.0,98000.0,114000.0,117000.0,120000.0,112000.0,111000.0,94000.0,89000.0,92000.0,110000.0,115000.0,114000.0,96000.0,110000.0,113000.0,116000.0,107000.0,107000.0,90000.0,85000.0,88000.0,106000.0,111000.0,110000.0,92000.0,106000.0,109000.0,111000.0,104000.0,103000.0,87000.0,82000.0,85000.0,102000.0,107000.0,105000.0,89000.0,102000.0,105000.0,107000.0,100000.0,99000.0,84000.0,79000.0,82000.0,98000.0,103000.0,101000.0,86000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4390.0,4150.0,4310.0,4070.0,4010.0,3860.0,3600.0,3710.0,4290.0,4120.0,3950.0,3680.0,4860.0,4580.0,4780.0,4490.0,4420.0,4180.0,3960.0,4040.0,4720.0,4500.0,4380.0,4570.0,5340.0,5190.0,5260.0,5120.0,4870.0,4730.0,4410.0,4490.0,5300.0,4970.0,4860.0,4580.0,5920.0,5710.0,5840.0,5600.0,5370.0,5200.0,4830.0,4920.0,5810.0,5470.0,5330.0,5050.0,7020.0,8060.0,8530.0,7320.0,6910.0,6360.0,5970.0,6090.0,7150.0,6620.0,6470.0,6210.0,7680.0,7410.0,7550.0,7230.0,7020.0,6690.0,6270.0,6410.0,7530.0,7110.0,6900.0,6470.0,7610.0,7290.0,7480.0,7120.0,7630.0,7310.0,6290.0,6470.0,7510.0,6980.0,6790.0,6830.0,7280.0,7520.0,7220.0,6810.0,6690.0,7030.0,5910.0,6070.0,7120.0,6670.0,6480.0,6140.0,6920.0,6580.0,6810.0,6510.0,6290.0,6140.0,5930.0,5760.0,6800.0,6410.0,6270.0,5920.0,6610.0,6330.0,6470.0,6170.0,5990.0,5770.0,5350.0,5490.0,6450.0,6050.0,5930.0,5560.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[11200.0,10800.0,11800.0,11300.0,11600.0,11100.0,10900.0,10500.0,11600.0,11400.0,10700.0,10000.0,10900.0,10400.0,11400.0,11000.0,11200.0,10800.0,10600.0,10200.0,11200.0,10900.0,10300.0,9700.0,10500.0,10100.0,11000.0,10600.0,10800.0,10400.0,10100.0,9800.0,10700.0,10500.0,9900.0,9300.0,10200.0,9800.0,10800.0,10400.0,10500.0,10100.0,9900.0,9600.0,10600.0,10300.0,9700.0,9100.0,10100.0,10000.0,11000.0,11400.0,10800.0,10300.0,10100.0,9900.0,10500.0,10300.0,9700.0,9200.0,9900.0,9500.0,10300.0,9900.0,10100.0,9700.0,9500.0,9200.0,10100.0,9800.0,9300.0,8800.0,9600.0,9200.0,10100.0,9700.0,9900.0,9500.0,9400.0,9100.0,9900.0,9600.0,9100.0,8600.0,9300.0,9000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9600.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,9700.0,9400.0,8900.0,8400.0,9100.0,8800.0,9600.0,9200.0,9400.0,9000.0,8900.0,8600.0,9400.0,9200.0,8700.0,8200.0,8900.0,8600.0,9300.0,9000.0,9100.0,8800.0,8600.0,8400.0,9200.0,8900.0,8500.0,8000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[27000.0,28350.0,29160.0,27540.0,26460.0,24300.0,22950.0,22950.0,28890.0,28620.0,27540.0,24300.0,26000.0,27300.0,28080.0,26520.0,25480.0,23400.0,22100.0,22100.0,27820.0,27560.0,26520.0,23400.0,25000.0,26250.0,27000.0,25500.0,24500.0,22500.0,21250.0,21250.0,26750.0,26500.0,25500.0,22500.0,24000.0,25200.0,25920.0,24480.0,23520.0,21600.0,20400.0,20400.0,25680.0,25440.0,24480.0,21600.0,24500.0,25725.0,27500.0,26500.0,24000.0,22050.0,20825.0,20825.0,26215.0,25970.0,24990.0,22050.0,23000.0,24150.0,24840.0,23460.0,22540.0,20700.0,19550.0,19550.0,24610.0,24380.0,23460.0,20700.0,21000.0,22050.0,22680.0,21420.0,20580.0,18900.0,17850.0,17850.0,22470.0,22260.0,21420.0,18900.0,19000.0,19950.0,20520.0,19380.0,18620.0,17100.0,16150.0,16150.0,20330.0,20140.0,19380.0,17100.0,17000.0,17850.0,18360.0,17340.0,16660.0,15300.0,14450.0,14450.0,18190.0,18020.0,17340.0,15300.0,15500.0,16275.0,16740.0,15810.0,15190.0,13950.0,13175.0,13175.0,16585.0,16430.0,15810.0,13950.0]}},{"title":"Role-based access control","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Role-based access control\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[12257,13438,14413,14618,13383,12627,10927,12248,12849,13702,14388,12086,13753,13694,16597,13857,15652,13931,13274,13906,13783,15495,15139,11892,14869,15231,17423,17577,19053,17426,17006,16650,15932,18981,18502,15617,17431,16756,18171,18864,18077,16668,16684,15256,15135,17679,18662,15906,17227,18876,18008,19184,17818,16260,16790,15531,16905,18114,16700,14775,15933,16423,20684,16489,15431,15271,15043,14652,14482,14840,15744,13198,14524,15480,16106,15241,13321,13343,12778,12228,13575,15744,15068,12241,13055,12892,13482,11056,12187,11305,11666,12825,12854,12901,11551,9364,12606,11525,12684,11541,11534,11017,10895,9116,9032,9954,9989,8276,9543,9816,10571,9013,7946,7785,8230,8324,7895,7765,7645,6980],"flat_reference_value":16981.917145613257,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[15500.0,16400.0,17700.0,17000.0,17200.0,16000.0,14800.0,15100.0,16900.0,18200.0,17400.0,14500.0,16600.0,17200.0,18800.0,17800.0,18600.0,17400.0,16100.0,16400.0,18200.0,19500.0,18700.0,15700.0,18000.0,18300.0,20000.0,19500.0,20100.0,18500.0,17500.0,17800.0,19100.0,21100.0,20100.0,16800.0,19200.0,19400.0,21000.0,20800.0,21400.0,19500.0,18400.0,18800.0,20700.0,22400.0,21100.0,17800.0,20400.0,20700.0,21500.0,22000.0,21600.0,20400.0,19400.0,19900.0,22400.0,23900.0,22700.0,19000.0,21500.0,22000.0,24200.0,23500.0,23800.0,22200.0,20700.0,21300.0,23600.0,24900.0,23800.0,19800.0,22000.0,22200.0,24200.0,23200.0,23700.0,21900.0,20400.0,21100.0,22900.0,24400.0,23200.0,19100.0,21000.0,21100.0,23100.0,22000.0,22800.0,20800.0,19500.0,20100.0,21700.0,23100.0,21900.0,18100.0,20100.0,20400.0,22000.0,21700.0,21900.0,19800.0,18800.0,19300.0,20800.0,22200.0,20900.0,17300.0,19200.0,19300.0,20800.0,20700.0,20800.0,18800.0,17800.0,18300.0,20000.0,21200.0,19900.0,16500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[31200.0,30800.0,34500.0,33400.0,32900.0,31000.0,29400.0,30200.0,33800.0,35400.0,33900.0,28600.0,33500.0,32400.0,36900.0,35100.0,35600.0,33200.0,31500.0,32600.0,36100.0,38200.0,36400.0,30500.0,36200.0,34900.0,39400.0,38300.0,38100.0,35500.0,34200.0,35100.0,38600.0,41200.0,38900.0,32800.0,38500.0,37100.0,41800.0,40600.0,40200.0,37400.0,36300.0,36800.0,40900.0,43100.0,40500.0,34400.0,39800.0,38600.0,39200.0,41500.0,41900.0,39700.0,38100.0,38400.0,42300.0,44200.0,41600.0,35800.0,41100.0,39700.0,44600.0,43200.0,42800.0,40100.0,37900.0,38700.0,43100.0,44900.0,42400.0,35600.0,40200.0,38500.0,42700.0,40400.0,39900.0,37600.0,35200.0,36400.0,39500.0,40800.0,38600.0,31900.0,35800.0,33900.0,36700.0,33800.0,33100.0,30400.0,28200.0,28900.0,30800.0,31900.0,29700.0,24600.0,27800.0,26700.0,28400.0,27300.0,26200.0,23600.0,22400.0,22100.0,24100.0,25200.0,23300.0,19400.0,21800.0,20600.0,22400.0,21500.0,20800.0,19100.0,18200.0,18400.0,20100.0,20900.0,19300.0,16400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[26500.0,30100.0,31400.0,30200.0,28500.0,26800.0,25100.0,26000.0,29800.0,32500.0,31200.0,23400.0,28200.0,32000.0,34100.0,32800.0,31500.0,29400.0,27500.0,28800.0,33400.0,36200.0,35100.0,26000.0,31800.0,35600.0,37900.0,36500.0,34800.0,32100.0,30200.0,31500.0,36800.0,39500.0,38200.0,28400.0,33500.0,37200.0,39800.0,38100.0,36200.0,33400.0,31200.0,32600.0,38100.0,41200.0,39400.0,29100.0,34200.0,37500.0,33100.0,31200.0,33800.0,32500.0,30100.0,31400.0,36200.0,38400.0,36900.0,27300.0,31500.0,35200.0,37100.0,35400.0,33200.0,30800.0,28500.0,29700.0,34500.0,36800.0,35200.0,25600.0,29800.0,33400.0,35100.0,33200.0,31100.0,28900.0,26800.0,27900.0,32100.0,34500.0,33100.0,23800.0,27200.0,30100.0,31800.0,29900.0,28100.0,25800.0,24100.0,25200.0,28900.0,30800.0,29500.0,21200.0,24500.0,27200.0,28600.0,26900.0,25200.0,23100.0,21500.0,22400.0,25800.0,27600.0,26300.0,19100.0,22100.0,24600.0,25800.0,24200.0,22800.0,20900.0,19500.0,20200.0,23400.0,25000.0,23800.0,17300.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[19500.0,21500.0,22000.0,21400.0,20400.0,18400.0,18000.0,18800.0,20400.0,22000.0,21800.0,17300.0,19300.0,21300.0,21800.0,21000.0,20200.0,18200.0,17800.0,18600.0,20200.0,21800.0,21600.0,17100.0,18600.0,20500.0,21000.0,20300.0,19500.0,17500.0,17100.0,17900.0,19400.0,21000.0,20800.0,16500.0,17600.0,19400.0,19900.0,19200.0,18400.0,16500.0,16200.0,16900.0,18400.0,19800.0,19600.0,15600.0,16600.0,18300.0,18700.0,18500.0,17600.0,15800.0,15400.0,15900.0,17200.0,18400.0,18200.0,14600.0,15000.0,16300.0,16700.0,16100.0,15400.0,13900.0,13500.0,14000.0,15200.0,16300.0,16100.0,12800.0,13100.0,14300.0,14600.0,14100.0,13500.0,12100.0,11800.0,12300.0,13300.0,14200.0,14000.0,11100.0,12000.0,13000.0,13300.0,12700.0,12200.0,11000.0,10600.0,11000.0,11900.0,12700.0,12500.0,9900.0,10300.0,11200.0,11400.0,10900.0,10400.0,9300.0,9000.0,9300.0,10100.0,10800.0,10600.0,8400.0,8800.0,9500.0,9700.0,9300.0,8900.0,8000.0,7700.0,7900.0,8500.0,9100.0,8900.0,7100.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[44000.0,46000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,44000.0,47000.0,48000.0,40000.0,45000.0,45000.0,49000.0,44000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,47000.0,47000.0,38000.0,43000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,44000.0,43000.0,35000.0,41000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,33000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,32000.0,35000.0,35000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,28000.0,31000.0,30000.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,21000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,19000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,16000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[7900.0,8400.0,8900.0,8150.0,7750.0,7150.0,6950.0,7450.0,8500.0,8900.0,8650.0,7150.0,8200.0,8800.0,9350.0,8550.0,8100.0,7500.0,7250.0,7800.0,8900.0,9350.0,9050.0,7500.0,8600.0,9250.0,9750.0,8950.0,8500.0,7850.0,7600.0,8150.0,9300.0,9750.0,9500.0,7850.0,8950.0,9650.0,10200.0,9350.0,8850.0,8200.0,7950.0,8500.0,9750.0,10200.0,9900.0,8200.0,9700.0,10450.0,12000.0,10850.0,9800.0,9000.0,8650.0,9200.0,10500.0,11050.0,10800.0,8950.0,10100.0,10850.0,11500.0,10650.0,10050.0,9300.0,9000.0,9550.0,10950.0,11500.0,11250.0,9300.0,9500.0,10250.0,10850.0,10000.0,9500.0,8750.0,8450.0,9000.0,10350.0,10850.0,10600.0,8750.0,8950.0,9650.0,10200.0,9400.0,8900.0,8200.0,7950.0,8500.0,9750.0,10200.0,9900.0,8200.0,8450.0,9100.0,9650.0,8900.0,8450.0,7850.0,7550.0,8000.0,9200.0,9650.0,9450.0,7800.0,8050.0,8700.0,9200.0,8500.0,8050.0,7500.0,7250.0,7650.0,8800.0,9200.0,9000.0,7450.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9340.0,8050.0,9520.0,8890.0,8410.0,7080.0,6680.0,7310.0,8920.0,9780.0,9220.0,6640.0,10420.0,8870.0,10630.0,9920.0,9380.0,7910.0,7530.0,8120.0,9960.0,12350.0,10410.0,7420.0,11940.0,10150.0,12180.0,11360.0,10730.0,9060.0,8640.0,9310.0,11410.0,12520.0,11790.0,8510.0,12590.0,10710.0,12840.0,11980.0,11320.0,9550.0,9110.0,9820.0,12030.0,13190.0,12440.0,8970.0,13450.0,11480.0,15680.0,15420.0,13060.0,10240.0,9730.0,10490.0,12850.0,14100.0,13310.0,9590.0,13990.0,11920.0,14270.0,13330.0,12590.0,10630.0,10120.0,10910.0,13370.0,14660.0,13840.0,9980.0,14420.0,12290.0,14710.0,13740.0,12980.0,10960.0,10440.0,11250.0,13780.0,15110.0,14270.0,10290.0,14860.0,12660.0,15150.0,14160.0,13370.0,11290.0,10750.0,11590.0,14190.0,15570.0,14700.0,10600.0,15190.0,13110.0,15480.0,14470.0,13660.0,11540.0,10990.0,11840.0,14500.0,15910.0,15020.0,10830.0,15400.0,13120.0,15700.0,14680.0,13850.0,11700.0,11140.0,12010.0,14710.0,16130.0,15240.0,10980.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[12600.0,13500.0,14800.0,15100.0,13400.0,12100.0,11300.0,11700.0,15100.0,15400.0,14900.0,12100.0,15200.0,16200.0,17800.0,18100.0,18100.0,14500.0,13500.0,14000.0,21400.0,18500.0,17800.0,14500.0,17600.0,18700.0,21700.0,21100.0,18700.0,16800.0,15700.0,16300.0,21100.0,21400.0,20700.0,16800.0,20400.0,21700.0,24000.0,24400.0,21700.0,19500.0,20400.0,21700.0,24400.0,24900.0,24000.0,19500.0,24800.0,26400.0,35500.0,33200.0,27200.0,23700.0,22100.0,22900.0,29700.0,30200.0,29100.0,26100.0,28600.0,30400.0,33500.0,34200.0,35000.0,27300.0,25400.0,26400.0,34200.0,34800.0,33500.0,32200.0,30900.0,32900.0,42800.0,37000.0,32900.0,29500.0,27500.0,28500.0,37000.0,37600.0,36300.0,33100.0,30400.0,32400.0,35700.0,36400.0,32400.0,29100.0,27100.0,29800.0,36400.0,37100.0,35700.0,29100.0,30000.0,31900.0,35200.0,35800.0,31900.0,28600.0,28800.0,27700.0,35800.0,36500.0,35200.0,28600.0,29200.0,31100.0,34300.0,34900.0,31100.0,27900.0,26000.0,27000.0,34900.0,35600.0,34300.0,27900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[10300.0,10600.0,10800.0,10200.0,9900.0,9300.0,9100.0,9500.0,10500.0,10700.0,10300.0,9400.0,10900.0,11200.0,11400.0,10800.0,10400.0,9900.0,9700.0,10100.0,11100.0,11300.0,10900.0,9900.0,11700.0,12000.0,12300.0,11600.0,11200.0,10700.0,10400.0,10800.0,11900.0,12100.0,11700.0,10600.0,12500.0,12900.0,13100.0,12400.0,12000.0,11400.0,11200.0,11600.0,12700.0,12900.0,12500.0,11400.0,13900.0,14200.0,15800.0,15400.0,14800.0,13900.0,13500.0,14000.0,15200.0,15500.0,15000.0,14000.0,15600.0,15900.0,16300.0,15500.0,15100.0,14500.0,14200.0,14700.0,15900.0,16100.0,15700.0,14600.0,16200.0,16500.0,16800.0,16000.0,15600.0,15000.0,14700.0,15200.0,16400.0,16600.0,16200.0,15100.0,17000.0,17400.0,17700.0,16800.0,16400.0,15800.0,15500.0,16000.0,17200.0,17400.0,17000.0,15900.0,17600.0,18000.0,18300.0,17400.0,17000.0,16400.0,16100.0,16600.0,17800.0,18000.0,17600.0,16500.0,17300.0,17600.0,17900.0,17000.0,16600.0,16000.0,15700.0,16200.0,17400.0,17600.0,17200.0,16100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[10280.0,11000.0,10280.0,10090.0,9120.0,8510.0,7790.0,8820.0,11840.0,11500.0,9800.0,8710.0,11780.0,11870.0,11785.0,10790.0,10670.0,9190.0,8940.0,10010.0,13430.0,12410.0,11230.0,9300.0,13030.0,13670.0,13040.0,12550.0,11330.0,10580.0,10390.0,10960.0,15760.0,14430.0,12420.0,10820.0,14630.0,14450.0,14350.0,13270.0,12730.0,11180.0,11100.0,11820.0,16180.0,15560.0,13670.0,12030.0,15940.0,16230.0,17690.0,17140.0,15570.0,13200.0,11970.0,13540.0,18540.0,17140.0,15500.0,12980.0,17290.0,17600.0,16790.0,16160.0,17020.0,14860.0,12990.0,14400.0,20110.0,18220.0,16650.0,13800.0,17270.0,18290.0,17280.0,15970.0,15640.0,13880.0,13630.0,14380.0,19890.0,18930.0,16460.0,14490.0,15940.0,16060.0,15950.0,14750.0,13730.0,12810.0,12100.0,13540.0,17810.0,17480.0,15050.0,12720.0,14410.0,15110.0,14130.0,13600.0,12660.0,11810.0,10820.0,12240.0,16760.0,15480.0,14010.0,11730.0,13590.0,13830.0,13730.0,12450.0,12070.0,10590.0,10520.0,11320.0,15800.0,14610.0,12820.0,10950.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[21400.0,20800.0,20200.0,19800.0,20600.0,18000.0,17200.0,18400.0,21800.0,21000.0,20200.0,17600.0,24600.0,23900.0,24400.0,22800.0,23700.0,20700.0,19800.0,21200.0,25100.0,25200.0,23200.0,20200.0,27800.0,27000.0,26300.0,25700.0,26800.0,23400.0,22400.0,23900.0,28300.0,27300.0,26300.0,22900.0,32100.0,31200.0,30300.0,29700.0,30900.0,27000.0,25800.0,27600.0,32700.0,31500.0,30300.0,26400.0,37500.0,36400.0,43100.0,49200.0,46100.0,34000.0,30100.0,36100.0,38200.0,36800.0,35400.0,30800.0,47900.0,41600.0,40400.0,39600.0,48600.0,36000.0,37200.0,36800.0,43600.0,42000.0,40400.0,35200.0,43900.0,44700.0,43500.0,40600.0,42200.0,36900.0,35300.0,37700.0,44700.0,43100.0,41400.0,36100.0,40700.0,39500.0,38400.0,37600.0,43800.0,36900.0,32700.0,35000.0,41400.0,46300.0,40700.0,33400.0,37450.0,40800.0,37100.0,34650.0,36050.0,31500.0,31600.0,32200.0,38150.0,36750.0,35350.0,30800.0,35310.0,34320.0,33330.0,32670.0,33990.0,29700.0,28380.0,30360.0,37000.0,34650.0,33330.0,29040.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[22700.0,23900.0,24800.0,25100.0,25000.0,23800.0,23000.0,23500.0,25000.0,25700.0,24700.0,22200.0,25400.0,26800.0,27800.0,28300.0,28000.0,26900.0,25800.0,26500.0,28100.0,28900.0,27800.0,25000.0,29100.0,30700.0,31900.0,32500.0,33500.0,31000.0,29800.0,30400.0,32300.0,33200.0,31900.0,28700.0,33900.0,35800.0,37100.0,37800.0,37400.0,36000.0,34600.0,35300.0,37400.0,38500.0,37000.0,33300.0,35800.0,36600.0,45500.0,44800.0,43200.0,39900.0,38500.0,40000.0,43400.0,43000.0,41000.0,37000.0,41500.0,43800.0,45400.0,46200.0,45700.0,44000.0,42500.0,43200.0,45800.0,47100.0,45400.0,41000.0,43900.0,46300.0,47900.0,48800.0,48200.0,46400.0,44800.0,45500.0,48200.0,49600.0,47800.0,43000.0,46800.0,49400.0,51100.0,52000.0,51400.0,49500.0,47800.0,48500.0,51300.0,52800.0,50900.0,45900.0,49500.0,52200.0,54000.0,55000.0,54400.0,52400.0,50600.0,51300.0,54200.0,55700.0,53700.0,48400.0,51900.0,54700.0,56700.0,57700.0,57000.0,54900.0,52900.0,53700.0,56700.0,58300.0,56200.0,50600.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1120.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1050.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1150.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1500.0,1650.0,1700.0,1750.0,1750.0,1700.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,1750.0,1800.0,1800.0,1600.0,1700.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1850.0,1900.0,1900.0,1650.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1850.0,1750.0,1650.0,1750.0,1900.0,1950.0,1950.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1650.0,1750.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3710.0,3820.0,3990.0,3740.0,3890.0,3200.0,3080.0,3150.0,4180.0,4310.0,3970.0,3010.0,4290.0,4480.0,4620.0,4370.0,4510.0,3800.0,4070.0,3680.0,4820.0,4960.0,4590.0,3590.0,4900.0,5130.0,5280.0,5300.0,5680.0,4350.0,4020.0,4240.0,5500.0,5670.0,5280.0,4080.0,5310.0,5560.0,5730.0,5410.0,5520.0,4740.0,4370.0,4580.0,5990.0,6280.0,5730.0,4420.0,6510.0,6870.0,8820.0,9010.0,8160.0,6430.0,5380.0,5670.0,8450.0,7590.0,7060.0,5420.0,6940.0,7270.0,7480.0,7080.0,8290.0,6190.0,6290.0,5980.0,7820.0,8900.0,7480.0,6100.0,7340.0,7690.0,8710.0,7490.0,8400.0,6560.0,6050.0,6340.0,8290.0,9180.0,7910.0,6120.0,8060.0,8450.0,8690.0,8220.0,8980.0,7190.0,6640.0,6950.0,9080.0,12050.0,10120.0,7140.0,8260.0,8670.0,8910.0,8420.0,8590.0,12300.0,8500.0,7130.0,9320.0,9560.0,8910.0,6890.0,8570.0,11250.0,9480.0,8740.0,8900.0,9200.0,7060.0,7390.0,9660.0,9910.0,9240.0,7300.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1840.0,1710.0,1930.0,1870.0,1810.0,1750.0,1810.0,1690.0,1780.0,1890.0,1830.0,1550.0,1830.0,1760.0,1990.0,1910.0,1870.0,1820.0,1880.0,1740.0,1830.0,1950.0,1900.0,1580.0,1960.0,1840.0,2070.0,2010.0,1930.0,1880.0,1970.0,1810.0,1920.0,2050.0,1980.0,1680.0,2070.0,1950.0,2210.0,2100.0,2050.0,1980.0,2070.0,1920.0,2020.0,2170.0,2080.0,1760.0,2170.0,2080.0,2380.0,2600.0,2500.0,2440.0,2370.0,2290.0,2420.0,2530.0,2480.0,2110.0,2350.0,2220.0,2490.0,2420.0,2370.0,2310.0,2390.0,2240.0,2380.0,2510.0,2430.0,2050.0,2400.0,2260.0,2580.0,2500.0,2450.0,2390.0,2470.0,2310.0,2450.0,2610.0,2520.0,2110.0,2520.0,2390.0,2700.0,2620.0,2550.0,2480.0,2580.0,2400.0,2550.0,2710.0,2610.0,2200.0,2610.0,2450.0,2780.0,2690.0,2640.0,2550.0,2640.0,2470.0,2620.0,2800.0,2690.0,2260.0,2720.0,2550.0,2890.0,2780.0,2720.0,2650.0,2750.0,2560.0,2710.0,2910.0,2790.0,2350.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[7350.0,7560.0,7560.0,7140.0,7000.0,6440.0,6160.0,6300.0,7210.0,7350.0,7000.0,5950.0,7875.0,8100.0,8100.0,7650.0,7500.0,6900.0,6600.0,6750.0,7725.0,7875.0,7500.0,6375.0,8400.0,8640.0,8640.0,8160.0,8000.0,7360.0,7040.0,7200.0,8240.0,8400.0,8000.0,6800.0,8925.0,9180.0,9180.0,8670.0,8500.0,7820.0,7480.0,7650.0,8755.0,8925.0,8500.0,7225.0,9975.0,10260.0,10260.0,9690.0,9500.0,8740.0,8360.0,8550.0,9785.0,9975.0,9500.0,8075.0,10500.0,10800.0,10800.0,10200.0,10000.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,10300.0,10500.0,10000.0,8500.0,10400.0,10700.0,10600.0,10100.0,9900.0,9100.0,8700.0,8900.0,10200.0,10400.0,9900.0,8400.0,9975.0,10260.0,10260.0,9690.0,9500.0,8740.0,8360.0,8550.0,9785.0,9975.0,9500.0,8075.0,8925.0,9180.0,9180.0,8670.0,8500.0,7820.0,7480.0,7650.0,8755.0,8925.0,8500.0,7225.0,7875.0,8100.0,8100.0,7650.0,7500.0,6900.0,6600.0,6750.0,7725.0,7875.0,7500.0,6375.0]}},{"title":"Pope Leo X","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Pope Leo X\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[28947,25467,24154,25137,24170,17887,16680,18390,24768,26085,24977,48112,44596,30638,30582,27476,27916,21597,21581,21881,27897,33823,23951,20055,22679,19385,22712,24022,21317,17801,15961,18451,21636,22795,19445,20464,29176,39841,23862,20712,19118,15715,14738,14801,18525,20515,18098,21629,23969,18890,20249,25791,167082,47301,30890,26443,26424,26923,23147,24361,28608,25540,28172,25466,23585,18781,19166,22346,21076,21807,19861,20246,29278,19641,18730,20675,19166,21162,22888,24914,29319,29686,23885,27920,41535,22348,27170,27437,27084,26803,24766,23414,26412,23976,22642,21664,24496,24018,23951,27631,19057,19402,17249,19249,20132,19594,18545,21816,22469,21758,21727,49916,139976,27941,20946,21661,22502,24531,21509,20457],"flat_reference_value":16932.08757142343,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[25500.0,27000.0,29800.0,26500.0,24500.0,22500.0,21800.0,23900.0,26800.0,31900.0,30100.0,24700.0,28000.0,29200.0,31500.0,28500.0,26800.0,23700.0,23100.0,25000.0,31500.0,72000.0,42000.0,27900.0,27000.0,27700.0,29000.0,26100.0,25000.0,22000.0,21300.0,22800.0,25700.0,33400.0,29600.0,23900.0,25800.0,26600.0,28800.0,25800.0,24200.0,21500.0,20700.0,22500.0,25500.0,31000.0,27900.0,23300.0,27100.0,28000.0,31800.0,30600.0,28500.0,24900.0,23600.0,24700.0,26600.0,31500.0,28900.0,24600.0,37000.0,29000.0,30500.0,27000.0,25400.0,23100.0,22000.0,23700.0,26800.0,32700.0,30500.0,38000.0,26700.0,27500.0,29400.0,26200.0,24300.0,21800.0,21000.0,22600.0,25600.0,30900.0,28800.0,23600.0,26000.0,27100.0,28700.0,25600.0,24100.0,21400.0,20900.0,22500.0,25300.0,30400.0,28300.0,23000.0,26400.0,27500.0,29700.0,26300.0,24800.0,22200.0,21500.0,23100.0,26100.0,31500.0,29200.0,24400.0,27400.0,28300.0,30000.0,39500.0,165000.0,59000.0,39000.0,33000.0,31000.0,36000.0,31500.0,27000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[21400.0,21900.0,22800.0,21700.0,20100.0,15400.0,15100.0,16200.0,22900.0,28600.0,23800.0,22500.0,23600.0,22700.0,24100.0,22000.0,20800.0,16100.0,15900.0,17500.0,26800.0,56400.0,31200.0,20900.0,22300.0,21800.0,23200.0,21900.0,19800.0,15200.0,15000.0,16100.0,22700.0,29500.0,25400.0,20200.0,28400.0,31600.0,25900.0,22800.0,20900.0,16000.0,15800.0,16700.0,22900.0,27800.0,23100.0,27600.0,24800.0,22600.0,23900.0,26200.0,37800.0,25400.0,20800.0,19700.0,23800.0,28900.0,23700.0,21100.0,26900.0,22800.0,23700.0,23900.0,20600.0,15900.0,15600.0,16500.0,21800.0,26100.0,21700.0,21900.0,20800.0,19900.0,21100.0,19800.0,18700.0,14300.0,14100.0,14900.0,19700.0,23800.0,19600.0,16800.0,18900.0,18100.0,19200.0,18000.0,16900.0,13200.0,13500.0,14000.0,18200.0,22100.0,18100.0,15800.0,17800.0,17100.0,18000.0,17200.0,16100.0,12800.0,13000.0,13600.0,17400.0,21300.0,17600.0,16400.0,18200.0,19100.0,18300.0,27800.0,114000.0,27400.0,17900.0,16200.0,19300.0,22900.0,18800.0,16900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[31200.0,33400.0,35100.0,33800.0,29800.0,23500.0,22100.0,24900.0,30500.0,37200.0,38100.0,27400.0,31800.0,33200.0,36500.0,34100.0,30800.0,24200.0,22900.0,26100.0,35400.0,67800.0,56200.0,30400.0,30100.0,32200.0,34500.0,32600.0,28900.0,22400.0,21300.0,23800.0,29600.0,37400.0,35900.0,26100.0,29800.0,31400.0,33100.0,30200.0,27800.0,21900.0,20400.0,22800.0,28900.0,35800.0,34700.0,26500.0,29100.0,30400.0,33500.0,39200.0,41800.0,30100.0,24800.0,25600.0,31200.0,37800.0,36100.0,26900.0,34200.0,30100.0,32600.0,29800.0,26900.0,21100.0,19800.0,21900.0,27600.0,34100.0,32800.0,24600.0,27400.0,28200.0,30500.0,28100.0,25200.0,19500.0,18700.0,20800.0,26700.0,32900.0,31600.0,23800.0,26200.0,27100.0,29400.0,26900.0,24100.0,18400.0,17800.0,19900.0,25300.0,31200.0,30100.0,22700.0,25400.0,26300.0,28100.0,25900.0,23200.0,17800.0,17100.0,19400.0,24600.0,30400.0,29200.0,22100.0,24900.0,25800.0,27600.0,25400.0,22700.0,17300.0,16800.0,19000.0,24100.0,29800.0,28500.0,21600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[24000.0,25000.0,26500.0,25500.0,23500.0,20500.0,19500.0,19500.0,22000.0,26000.0,25500.0,20500.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24500.0,23000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19500.0,22500.0,36000.0,28000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,21500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18000.0,20500.0,24000.0,23000.0,18500.0,21000.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,20500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,19500.0,23000.0,22500.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23500.0,22000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,19000.0,21500.0,21000.0,17500.0,19500.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,18000.0,20500.0,20000.0,16500.0,18500.0,19000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,19500.0,19000.0,15500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,16500.0,19000.0,18500.0,15000.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,16500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,16000.0,18500.0,19500.0,17000.0,18000.0,18500.0,19500.0,30000.0,210000.0,45000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25500.0,22000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[52000.0,50000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,48000.0,58000.0,62000.0,65000.0,62000.0,55000.0,57000.0,55000.0,54000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,52000.0,85000.0,68000.0,56000.0,58000.0,53000.0,56000.0,54000.0,52000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,48000.0,56000.0,58000.0,56000.0,62000.0,58000.0,58000.0,55000.0,54000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,49000.0,53000.0,52000.0,54000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,68000.0,85000.0,68000.0,58000.0,54000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,54000.0,56000.0,52000.0,54000.0,50000.0,49000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,45000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,39000.0,39000.0,39000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,47000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,40000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,62000.0,650000.0,110000.0,78000.0,68000.0,66000.0,66000.0,63000.0,62000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[29800.0,31500.0,31200.0,29900.0,30100.0,26400.0,24700.0,25600.0,29800.0,40200.0,31400.0,27100.0,33800.0,33200.0,32400.0,30900.0,30800.0,27100.0,25400.0,26600.0,35200.0,162000.0,71000.0,33200.0,30200.0,31600.0,30900.0,29800.0,29900.0,26100.0,24400.0,25500.0,29900.0,44300.0,32800.0,27200.0,29400.0,30900.0,30400.0,29500.0,29600.0,25800.0,24100.0,25100.0,29600.0,34100.0,31300.0,30100.0,30600.0,32100.0,36200.0,38100.0,37300.0,30100.0,26900.0,28100.0,30900.0,36200.0,32400.0,28200.0,28700.0,30100.0,29900.0,28600.0,28700.0,25100.0,23600.0,24600.0,28700.0,33100.0,30100.0,48000.0,28100.0,29500.0,29300.0,28000.0,28200.0,24600.0,23100.0,24000.0,28100.0,32200.0,29500.0,25600.0,27600.0,29000.0,28800.0,27500.0,27700.0,24100.0,22700.0,23500.0,27600.0,31600.0,29000.0,25100.0,28000.0,29500.0,29300.0,28100.0,28200.0,24600.0,23100.0,24100.0,28100.0,38500.0,40200.0,34300.0,32100.0,36400.0,40100.0,78000.0,382000.0,118000.0,84000.0,67000.0,61000.0,68000.0,58000.0,53000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[12375.0,12603.0,12058.0,11784.0,11240.0,10511.0,9798.0,9877.0,12149.0,12801.0,11831.0,10328.0,11920.0,12280.0,11850.0,11520.0,11120.0,10280.0,9620.0,9730.0,13850.0,22450.0,13320.0,10150.0,11750.0,11980.0,11520.0,11180.0,10890.0,10020.0,9280.0,9510.0,11420.0,12250.0,11480.0,9920.0,11380.0,11650.0,11280.0,10890.0,10620.0,9780.0,9050.0,9280.0,11150.0,12840.0,11620.0,10480.0,11120.0,11350.0,13850.0,14300.0,12200.0,9850.0,8950.0,9120.0,10880.0,11920.0,11250.0,10980.0,18500.0,12800.0,11050.0,10580.0,10200.0,9400.0,8700.0,8900.0,10650.0,11780.0,10920.0,9480.0,10680.0,11020.0,10650.0,10120.0,9850.0,9120.0,8420.0,8650.0,10320.0,11350.0,10600.0,10850.0,10420.0,10780.0,10350.0,9920.0,9680.0,8900.0,8250.0,8470.0,10120.0,11980.0,10350.0,9050.0,10150.0,10520.0,10180.0,9720.0,9450.0,8720.0,8050.0,8280.0,9900.0,10950.0,11280.0,9800.0,9950.0,10380.0,10850.0,16500.0,38200.0,15800.0,11200.0,10500.0,11800.0,12900.0,11500.0,9800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[16300.0,15500.0,15600.0,16000.0,15800.0,15200.0,14900.0,15300.0,16100.0,17100.0,16700.0,16100.0,16700.0,15900.0,16100.0,16400.0,16200.0,15600.0,15300.0,15700.0,17500.0,24600.0,21000.0,17900.0,15450.0,14700.0,14850.0,15150.0,15000.0,14400.0,14100.0,14550.0,15300.0,16200.0,15900.0,15800.0,15000.0,14300.0,14500.0,14700.0,14600.0,14000.0,13700.0,14200.0,14900.0,15800.0,15500.0,15800.0,15700.0,14900.0,16900.0,17700.0,16700.0,15300.0,14300.0,14700.0,15500.0,16400.0,16100.0,15500.0,14600.0,13900.0,14100.0,14300.0,14200.0,13600.0,13300.0,13800.0,14500.0,15300.0,15100.0,14500.0,14000.0,13300.0,13500.0,13700.0,13600.0,13100.0,12800.0,13200.0,13900.0,14700.0,14400.0,13900.0,13600.0,12900.0,13100.0,13300.0,13200.0,12700.0,12400.0,12800.0,13500.0,14300.0,14000.0,13500.0,13400.0,12700.0,12900.0,13100.0,13000.0,12500.0,12200.0,12600.0,13300.0,15200.0,17900.0,15600.0,14500.0,15100.0,15500.0,22600.0,425000.0,85000.0,33000.0,24000.0,19600.0,18700.0,17000.0,15000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[6000.0,5900.0,6300.0,6100.0,5800.0,5200.0,4900.0,4900.0,5900.0,6300.0,6200.0,5700.0,6100.0,6000.0,6400.0,6200.0,5900.0,5300.0,5000.0,5000.0,8000.0,32000.0,12000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6100.0,5500.0,5200.0,5200.0,6200.0,6600.0,6500.0,6000.0,6300.0,6100.0,6400.0,6200.0,5900.0,5300.0,5000.0,5000.0,6000.0,6400.0,6300.0,5800.0,6400.0,6200.0,7000.0,7200.0,6800.0,6000.0,5600.0,5600.0,6600.0,7000.0,6900.0,6400.0,6500.0,6300.0,6700.0,10000.0,8000.0,5800.0,5400.0,5400.0,6400.0,6800.0,6700.0,12000.0,6400.0,6200.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5100.0,6100.0,6500.0,6400.0,5900.0,6200.0,6000.0,6300.0,6100.0,5800.0,5200.0,4900.0,4900.0,5900.0,6300.0,6200.0,5700.0,6000.0,5800.0,6100.0,5900.0,5600.0,5000.0,4700.0,4700.0,5700.0,6100.0,6000.0,5500.0,5900.0,5700.0,6000.0,5800.0,120000.0,25000.0,12000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[15800.0,14900.0,16600.0,14200.0,12600.0,10000.0,8400.0,8900.0,15200.0,21000.0,14500.0,11000.0,17800.0,16800.0,19200.0,17200.0,15200.0,11600.0,9900.0,10300.0,21500.0,38000.0,26500.0,12600.0,15200.0,14000.0,15500.0,13200.0,11800.0,9200.0,7800.0,8200.0,14200.0,15100.0,13300.0,10100.0,15400.0,14600.0,16000.0,13800.0,12300.0,9800.0,8300.0,8700.0,14900.0,15900.0,14200.0,10800.0,14800.0,14300.0,17500.0,15800.0,13800.0,10800.0,9000.0,9400.0,15000.0,17200.0,14000.0,11200.0,14500.0,13800.0,15200.0,13000.0,14500.0,9200.0,7800.0,8200.0,14000.0,14800.0,13200.0,19500.0,14300.0,13500.0,15000.0,12800.0,11400.0,9000.0,7600.0,8100.0,13800.0,14700.0,13100.0,10000.0,14700.0,13900.0,15400.0,13100.0,11700.0,9300.0,7900.0,8300.0,14200.0,15200.0,13500.0,10300.0,14200.0,13400.0,14800.0,12600.0,11200.0,8900.0,7500.0,7900.0,13600.0,14500.0,12900.0,9800.0,14500.0,17500.0,16500.0,21000.0,32000.0,19000.0,8200.0,8600.0,13800.0,14700.0,13000.0,10200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3180.0,3120.0,3240.0,3300.0,3090.0,2820.0,2670.0,2730.0,3180.0,3330.0,3150.0,2700.0,3307.0,3245.0,3370.0,3432.0,3214.0,2933.0,2777.0,2839.0,5622.0,20779.0,7535.0,4212.0,4293.0,3370.0,3499.0,3564.0,3337.0,3046.0,2884.0,2948.0,3434.0,3596.0,3402.0,2916.0,3498.0,3432.0,3564.0,3630.0,3399.0,3102.0,2937.0,3003.0,3498.0,3663.0,3465.0,2970.0,3689.0,3619.0,4134.0,4402.0,4015.0,3271.0,3097.0,3167.0,3689.0,3863.0,3654.0,3132.0,8395.0,4493.0,5832.0,10296.0,5191.0,3722.0,3204.0,3276.0,3816.0,3996.0,3780.0,3240.0,3689.0,3619.0,3758.0,3828.0,3584.0,3271.0,3097.0,3167.0,3689.0,3863.0,3654.0,5324.0,5342.0,3844.0,3629.0,3696.0,3461.0,3158.0,2990.0,3058.0,3562.0,3730.0,3528.0,3024.0,3434.0,3370.0,3499.0,3564.0,3337.0,3046.0,2884.0,2948.0,3434.0,3596.0,3402.0,2916.0,3339.0,3276.0,3402.0,5544.0,22712.0,5922.0,3925.0,3296.0,3339.0,3497.0,3308.0,2835.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[14200.0,13800.0,15400.0,14100.0,13900.0,14500.0,13200.0,12600.0,13500.0,22500.0,16800.0,14400.0,14000.0,13500.0,15100.0,13700.0,13500.0,14200.0,12800.0,12200.0,13100.0,36000.0,19500.0,14700.0,13500.0,13100.0,14200.0,13200.0,13000.0,13600.0,12300.0,11700.0,12600.0,13200.0,14600.0,13000.0,13100.0,12600.0,13800.0,15100.0,15400.0,13100.0,12400.0,11800.0,12700.0,13100.0,14000.0,12700.0,13600.0,13200.0,14500.0,20500.0,15900.0,13800.0,12900.0,12300.0,13200.0,13700.0,14600.0,13500.0,13800.0,13300.0,30500.0,15400.0,14000.0,14400.0,13000.0,12400.0,13300.0,13800.0,15400.0,13600.0,13200.0,12800.0,14100.0,13300.0,13100.0,13600.0,12300.0,11700.0,12600.0,13100.0,14100.0,12900.0,12800.0,12300.0,13700.0,12700.0,12500.0,13100.0,11800.0,11200.0,12100.0,12600.0,14100.0,12400.0,12400.0,15100.0,14600.0,12400.0,12200.0,12800.0,11500.0,10900.0,11800.0,12300.0,14500.0,12200.0,12900.0,12500.0,13700.0,12600.0,18000.0,14500.0,13000.0,12400.0,13300.0,13500.0,14200.0,13800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2600.0,2800.0,2800.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2700.0,4200.0,3200.0,2400.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2600.0,2800.0,2800.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2500.0,2700.0,2700.0,2200.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,2500.0,2700.0,2700.0,2200.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,2400.0,2600.0,2600.0,2100.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,6500.0,3400.0,2800.0,2600.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3050.0,2700.0,3300.0,3200.0,2850.0,2550.0,2450.0,2350.0,3100.0,3200.0,2750.0,3250.0,3300.0,2950.0,3550.0,3450.0,3050.0,2750.0,2600.0,2550.0,3250.0,16000.0,6200.0,3750.0,3450.0,3050.0,3700.0,3600.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,3450.0,3600.0,3100.0,3650.0,3550.0,3150.0,3850.0,3750.0,3350.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3600.0,3750.0,3200.0,3750.0,3800.0,3450.0,4250.0,4100.0,3750.0,3450.0,3300.0,3250.0,3900.0,4050.0,3550.0,3950.0,3900.0,3550.0,4350.0,4200.0,3850.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,4000.0,4150.0,4450.0,8500.0,4300.0,3700.0,4100.0,4000.0,3650.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3850.0,3950.0,3500.0,4050.0,3600.0,3200.0,3850.0,3750.0,3400.0,3050.0,2950.0,2850.0,3550.0,3700.0,3200.0,3700.0,3700.0,3300.0,3950.0,3850.0,3450.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3650.0,3750.0,3250.0,3800.0,3900.0,3550.0,4200.0,4100.0,14500.0,7800.0,4500.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,3550.0,4150.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3300.0,3100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3000.0,3400.0,3300.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,4700.0,5200.0,6500.0,5100.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3800.0,3700.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4100.0,3900.0,3400.0,3800.0,3600.0,4100.0,4400.0,4600.0,4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,4200.0,4700.0,6200.0,7500.0,4200.0,4000.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,4400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4500.0,4400.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4100.0,4400.0,4200.0,4600.0,4500.0,4800.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4600.0,4900.0,4700.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4700.0,4900.0,36000.0,12500.0,7400.0,5800.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,4600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[950.0,900.0,950.0,880.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,850.0,900.0,920.0,880.0,900.0,870.0,900.0,880.0,860.0,820.0,780.0,780.0,900.0,2400.0,1500.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,880.0,820.0,800.0,760.0,740.0,750.0,820.0,850.0,830.0,780.0,820.0,790.0,820.0,790.0,770.0,730.0,720.0,720.0,790.0,800.0,780.0,740.0,800.0,780.0,860.0,850.0,800.0,760.0,740.0,730.0,780.0,790.0,770.0,750.0,760.0,730.0,760.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,710.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,700.0,680.0,710.0,680.0,660.0,640.0,620.0,610.0,660.0,680.0,660.0,640.0,660.0,640.0,670.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,580.0,570.0,620.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,640.0,610.0,630.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,540.0,530.0,580.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,600.0,580.0,600.0,580.0,1300.0,900.0,700.0,640.0,620.0,630.0,600.0,580.0]}},{"title":"Wave function collapse","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Wave function collapse\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[7171,7488,6902,7171,7268,6317,6063,6625,11295,8411,8377,7762,8441,8219,9157,9965,8735,7771,8070,7647,8331,8879,8969,8183,8200,7816,9922,9236,8605,7425,8517,8461,8274,9263,10564,10248,10123,8580,9880,9373,9587,8173,8416,8773,10070,11155,10726,10657,10533,10505,10506,13016,12428,10079,12324,10567,10345,12108,10621,11543,10926,10352,10662,10115,11049,10684,9392,9260,10698,10748,9896,10248,10724,9752,9200,16895,15161,13368,15766,14564,12991,17730,15179,12980,14220,12275,15388,14973,14301,11906,14062,14105,12029,14275,14306,14265,13765,12178,13701,12685,14186,12998,12566,12453,12246,13297,12132,13241,13428,12577,13405,11316,12042,9440,9541,10858,9600,9809,10801,10988],"flat_reference_value":17004.240620453136,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[13200.0,13800.0,14500.0,14100.0,13400.0,11900.0,11500.0,12100.0,13500.0,14700.0,14300.0,12600.0,13600.0,14300.0,15100.0,14600.0,13900.0,12400.0,12000.0,12700.0,14000.0,15400.0,14900.0,13200.0,14300.0,15000.0,15900.0,15400.0,14600.0,13000.0,12600.0,13300.0,14700.0,16100.0,15500.0,13800.0,15000.0,15700.0,16500.0,15900.0,15100.0,13500.0,13200.0,13900.0,15400.0,17500.0,16300.0,14400.0,15600.0,16300.0,17400.0,17900.0,16900.0,14900.0,14300.0,14900.0,16400.0,17900.0,17300.0,15300.0,16500.0,17100.0,18300.0,17700.0,16800.0,14900.0,14400.0,15100.0,16700.0,18100.0,17500.0,15600.0,16900.0,17500.0,18700.0,18100.0,17200.0,15300.0,14900.0,15500.0,17200.0,21800.0,18700.0,16300.0,17400.0,18100.0,19300.0,18600.0,17700.0,15800.0,16600.0,17200.0,17900.0,19400.0,18700.0,16500.0,17900.0,18600.0,19800.0,19200.0,18200.0,16200.0,15800.0,16500.0,18200.0,19800.0,19100.0,17200.0,18400.0,19000.0,20300.0,19600.0,18600.0,16600.0,16100.0,16900.0,18700.0,20300.0,19500.0,17300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[19800.0,20400.0,22600.0,22300.0,21400.0,17900.0,17400.0,18100.0,21200.0,27800.0,24100.0,20900.0,21100.0,20800.0,24200.0,23700.0,22800.0,18900.0,18500.0,19100.0,22100.0,24900.0,24100.0,21200.0,21600.0,21100.0,24800.0,24300.0,23200.0,19400.0,19100.0,19700.0,22600.0,25600.0,24700.0,21800.0,22400.0,21900.0,25700.0,25100.0,24100.0,20200.0,19800.0,20500.0,23500.0,26800.0,25600.0,22700.0,23400.0,22900.0,24200.0,26100.0,25800.0,22100.0,21800.0,22500.0,24900.0,27600.0,26700.0,23900.0,24600.0,23500.0,27100.0,26500.0,25400.0,21300.0,20800.0,21400.0,24200.0,27200.0,26100.0,23100.0,23800.0,22900.0,26400.0,25800.0,24700.0,20700.0,20300.0,20900.0,23800.0,35400.0,27600.0,23500.0,23900.0,22600.0,25900.0,25100.0,23900.0,20100.0,27400.0,26800.0,24100.0,26200.0,24800.0,21600.0,21800.0,21100.0,24600.0,23700.0,22300.0,18600.0,18200.0,18700.0,21200.0,23900.0,22600.0,19700.0,19900.0,19100.0,21800.0,21200.0,20100.0,16900.0,16500.0,17100.0,19400.0,22800.0,20900.0,18200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[25100.0,26800.0,29200.0,28400.0,27100.0,21800.0,20900.0,22100.0,25600.0,29800.0,30400.0,23900.0,26200.0,27500.0,30100.0,28900.0,27800.0,22400.0,21500.0,22900.0,26400.0,30600.0,31200.0,24500.0,27100.0,28300.0,31400.0,29800.0,28200.0,23100.0,22300.0,23500.0,27200.0,31100.0,31800.0,25000.0,27400.0,28600.0,31700.0,29500.0,27900.0,22800.0,22100.0,23200.0,26900.0,30800.0,31400.0,24600.0,27200.0,28400.0,33100.0,35200.0,32800.0,24900.0,23800.0,24500.0,28100.0,31600.0,32200.0,25400.0,27900.0,28800.0,31500.0,30200.0,28400.0,23000.0,22100.0,23400.0,27000.0,30900.0,31300.0,24800.0,26800.0,27900.0,30700.0,29300.0,27500.0,22400.0,21800.0,22900.0,26800.0,41200.0,34100.0,25300.0,27100.0,27800.0,30400.0,28900.0,27200.0,23100.0,27600.0,28900.0,27100.0,30500.0,30800.0,24200.0,25900.0,26800.0,29200.0,27800.0,26100.0,21400.0,20700.0,21800.0,25200.0,28700.0,29100.0,23100.0,24800.0,25600.0,28100.0,26900.0,25200.0,20600.0,19800.0,20900.0,24300.0,27600.0,28000.0,22300.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[36500.0,38500.0,40500.0,39500.0,36000.0,32000.0,31500.0,32000.0,36500.0,42000.0,41500.0,34000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41500.0,39500.0,37000.0,32500.0,31500.0,32000.0,36000.0,39500.0,40000.0,33000.0,36500.0,38000.0,39500.0,38000.0,35500.0,31000.0,30000.0,30500.0,34500.0,38000.0,38500.0,31500.0,35000.0,36500.0,38000.0,36500.0,34500.0,30000.0,29500.0,30000.0,33500.0,37000.0,37500.0,31000.0,34500.0,36000.0,39000.0,42000.0,39500.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34500.0,37000.0,37000.0,31500.0,34500.0,35500.0,36500.0,35000.0,33000.0,29500.0,29000.0,29000.0,32000.0,35000.0,35500.0,30000.0,32500.0,33500.0,34500.0,33000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27500.0,28000.0,31000.0,37500.0,35000.0,29500.0,32000.0,32500.0,34000.0,32500.0,30500.0,28000.0,30500.0,31000.0,30500.0,33000.0,33000.0,27500.0,30000.0,30500.0,31500.0,30000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0,27500.0,30000.0,29500.0,25000.0,27000.0,27500.0,28500.0,27000.0,25500.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,24500.0,26500.0,26000.0,22000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[36000.0,35500.0,37000.0,36000.0,35500.0,32000.0,31500.0,32000.0,34000.0,36500.0,36500.0,33500.0,37500.0,36000.0,38500.0,37000.0,37000.0,33500.0,33000.0,33500.0,35000.0,37500.0,37500.0,34500.0,37500.0,35500.0,37500.0,36500.0,36000.0,32500.0,32500.0,33000.0,34000.0,36500.0,36500.0,33500.0,36500.0,34500.0,36500.0,35500.0,35500.0,32000.0,32500.0,32500.0,33500.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,35500.0,39500.0,44000.0,43000.0,38000.0,36500.0,35500.0,35500.0,37000.0,36500.0,35000.0,37000.0,34500.0,36000.0,34500.0,34000.0,31000.0,30500.0,30500.0,31000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31500.0,31500.0,28500.0,28500.0,28500.0,29500.0,34500.0,32500.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30500.0,30500.0,28000.0,31500.0,32000.0,29500.0,30500.0,30500.0,28500.0,30500.0,29000.0,32500.0,31500.0,30500.0,27500.0,27000.0,27000.0,27500.0,29500.0,29000.0,27500.0,29500.0,27500.0,29500.0,28500.0,28500.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26500.0,28500.0,28000.0,26000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[35400.0,40700.0,41300.0,39500.0,36800.0,30400.0,28000.0,31200.0,37100.0,39800.0,39100.0,31500.0,32300.0,34800.0,36200.0,35400.0,34100.0,28300.0,25600.0,28600.0,34200.0,36700.0,35800.0,28900.0,30200.0,32500.0,34600.0,33400.0,32100.0,26200.0,24300.0,26800.0,31800.0,34500.0,33600.0,27100.0,28700.0,31100.0,32700.0,32400.0,30500.0,25200.0,23100.0,25500.0,30600.0,37800.0,34500.0,26700.0,29200.0,31400.0,37600.0,39200.0,33400.0,26000.0,23500.0,25900.0,30700.0,33100.0,32200.0,26300.0,28800.0,30900.0,32400.0,31700.0,30300.0,24900.0,23200.0,25300.0,30200.0,32700.0,31800.0,25800.0,29700.0,32100.0,33800.0,33500.0,31300.0,25800.0,23900.0,26400.0,33000.0,50600.0,38400.0,27800.0,30200.0,32500.0,34300.0,33600.0,32000.0,26500.0,24700.0,27200.0,31900.0,36500.0,33400.0,27100.0,30500.0,33000.0,34800.0,33900.0,32500.0,26700.0,24700.0,27000.0,32400.0,34900.0,33900.0,37600.0,35200.0,38900.0,40700.0,41600.0,39100.0,34200.0,28800.0,31200.0,37400.0,46800.0,39900.0,31000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[14127.0,13780.0,14452.0,13591.0,12543.0,10982.0,10015.0,11234.0,13310.0,14408.0,13965.0,10520.0,14650.0,14090.0,14970.0,14230.0,12980.0,11540.0,10420.0,11715.0,13845.0,14920.0,14610.0,10930.0,15420.0,14830.0,15755.0,15005.0,13650.0,12180.0,10960.0,12300.0,14560.0,15710.0,15280.0,11490.0,16050.0,15470.0,16410.0,15600.0,14280.0,12690.0,11430.0,12840.0,15220.0,21200.0,18450.0,11980.0,16830.0,16190.0,20500.0,20400.0,15120.0,13250.0,12180.0,13410.0,15930.0,17180.0,16850.0,12540.0,17350.0,16720.0,17740.0,16890.0,15410.0,13720.0,12360.0,13890.0,16410.0,17720.0,17300.0,12950.0,17910.0,17240.0,18280.0,17410.0,15920.0,14130.0,12750.0,14300.0,16950.0,29200.0,21400.0,13380.0,18640.0,17980.0,19050.0,18170.0,16590.0,14750.0,18850.0,19300.0,20200.0,19080.0,18620.0,13920.0,19310.0,18580.0,19720.0,18790.0,17150.0,15240.0,13760.0,15420.0,18280.0,19710.0,19280.0,14410.0,19950.0,19230.0,20410.0,19420.0,17730.0,15780.0,14240.0,15960.0,18900.0,20380.0,19920.0,14950.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[23300.0,22900.0,23100.0,22400.0,21300.0,19400.0,18500.0,18900.0,22400.0,23800.0,26100.0,20200.0,26500.0,26000.0,26300.0,25500.0,24300.0,22000.0,22300.0,22900.0,25500.0,27000.0,27500.0,23000.0,29700.0,29100.0,29400.0,28600.0,27200.0,24600.0,23500.0,28500.0,31500.0,31000.0,30800.0,25800.0,32900.0,32200.0,32600.0,31600.0,30100.0,27300.0,26000.0,26700.0,31600.0,39500.0,36200.0,28500.0,38200.0,37400.0,44600.0,42200.0,34900.0,34900.0,30200.0,31000.0,36700.0,38900.0,39600.0,33100.0,41300.0,40600.0,41000.0,39800.0,37800.0,34300.0,32800.0,33500.0,39800.0,42100.0,42900.0,35900.0,43500.0,42600.0,43100.0,41800.0,39800.0,36100.0,34400.0,35300.0,41800.0,54000.0,48700.0,37700.0,45600.0,49200.0,45200.0,43900.0,41700.0,37800.0,39700.0,38900.0,43900.0,46400.0,47300.0,39600.0,47700.0,46800.0,51100.0,45900.0,43700.0,39600.0,37800.0,38700.0,45900.0,48600.0,49500.0,48900.0,58500.0,55900.0,50400.0,49000.0,46600.0,44300.0,40300.0,41300.0,49000.0,51800.0,52800.0,44200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[8200.0,8400.0,8600.0,8400.0,7600.0,6900.0,6600.0,7000.0,8200.0,8600.0,8400.0,7200.0,8700.0,9000.0,9100.0,9000.0,8100.0,7300.0,7100.0,7500.0,8700.0,9100.0,9000.0,7600.0,9300.0,9600.0,9800.0,9600.0,8700.0,7800.0,7600.0,8000.0,9300.0,9800.0,9600.0,8200.0,10000.0,10300.0,10400.0,10300.0,9300.0,8400.0,8100.0,8600.0,10000.0,10500.0,10300.0,8700.0,10700.0,11000.0,11200.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8700.0,9200.0,10700.0,11200.0,11000.0,9400.0,11300.0,11700.0,11900.0,11700.0,10600.0,9500.0,9200.0,9700.0,11300.0,11900.0,11700.0,9900.0,12200.0,12500.0,12800.0,12500.0,11400.0,10200.0,9900.0,10400.0,12200.0,18000.0,14000.0,10700.0,12900.0,13300.0,13500.0,13300.0,12100.0,10800.0,13000.0,13000.0,12900.0,13500.0,13300.0,11300.0,13400.0,13800.0,14100.0,13800.0,12500.0,11300.0,10900.0,11500.0,13400.0,14100.0,13800.0,11800.0,15200.0,15700.0,15900.0,15700.0,14200.0,12800.0,12300.0,13100.0,15200.0,16000.0,15700.0,13300.0],"meta/muse-ember":[22145.0,22915.0,23911.0,23606.0,22416.0,19888.0,19554.0,20778.0,24487.0,29587.0,25757.0,21468.0,23653.0,24475.0,25539.0,25213.0,23942.0,21242.0,20884.0,22193.0,26153.0,26780.0,25472.0,22928.0,25262.0,26141.0,34096.0,29620.0,25571.0,22687.0,22305.0,23702.0,27932.0,28602.0,27204.0,24488.0,26980.0,27918.0,29131.0,36802.0,30594.0,24230.0,23822.0,25314.0,33412.0,36656.0,29054.0,26154.0,28859.0,29907.0,40003.0,37697.0,32325.0,28200.0,25709.0,27361.0,36167.0,33115.0,31544.0,28437.0,31378.0,32518.0,33981.0,33597.0,31952.0,36908.0,32142.0,34211.0,35091.0,36005.0,34297.0,37103.0,34117.0,35356.0,46184.0,43835.0,38216.0,33338.0,35864.0,32345.0,38175.0,39147.0,37291.0,33617.0,37093.0,46093.0,44992.0,39717.0,37773.0,33562.0,47917.0,45718.0,46468.0,48950.0,43789.0,36552.0,40352.0,41797.0,43678.0,43184.0,41070.0,36492.0,35931.0,38239.0,45131.0,53224.0,47613.0,52462.0,48239.0,45448.0,47493.0,60102.0,51355.0,39678.0,39068.0,41578.0,49072.0,57870.0,51770.0,43214.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3500.0,4700.0,4300.0,4200.0,3950.0,3350.0,3050.0,5600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,3050.0,3700.0,4300.0,4550.0,4400.0,4150.0,5600.0,3200.0,3300.0,4550.0,4650.0,4400.0,3200.0,3950.0,4650.0,7850.0,4750.0,4450.0,3800.0,3450.0,3550.0,4900.0,5000.0,4750.0,3450.0,4300.0,5100.0,5350.0,5150.0,4900.0,4150.0,3750.0,3850.0,7000.0,14200.0,5150.0,3750.0,4800.0,5600.0,8300.0,7150.0,6200.0,4800.0,4150.0,4250.0,5950.0,6050.0,5700.0,9150.0,5250.0,6150.0,6500.0,6250.0,5950.0,5000.0,4550.0,4650.0,6500.0,9900.0,6250.0,4550.0,5800.0,6800.0,7900.0,6950.0,6550.0,5550.0,5050.0,5150.0,7200.0,22000.0,6950.0,5050.0,6250.0,10300.0,7750.0,7500.0,7050.0,6000.0,10350.0,5600.0,7750.0,9450.0,7500.0,5450.0,6800.0,8000.0,8450.0,8150.0,7700.0,7500.0,5900.0,6050.0,8450.0,9900.0,8150.0,15400.0,9950.0,23300.0,12300.0,28500.0,11250.0,9500.0,8650.0,8850.0,12300.0,37500.0,11900.0,8650.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[74000.0,82000.0,88000.0,92000.0,97000.0,89000.0,79000.0,75000.0,88000.0,101000.0,116000.0,105000.0,109000.0,118000.0,136000.0,129000.0,133000.0,121000.0,108000.0,103000.0,119000.0,134000.0,149000.0,138000.0,145000.0,154000.0,208000.0,173000.0,163000.0,151000.0,134000.0,128000.0,149000.0,176000.0,205000.0,190000.0,184000.0,199000.0,192000.0,196000.0,188000.0,168000.0,152000.0,146000.0,173000.0,423000.0,384000.0,258000.0,226000.0,247000.0,231000.0,242000.0,232000.0,200000.0,173000.0,158000.0,188000.0,218000.0,252000.0,230000.0,235000.0,245000.0,253000.0,250000.0,278000.0,247000.0,210000.0,192000.0,226000.0,262000.0,308000.0,275000.0,279000.0,293000.0,284000.0,288000.0,315000.0,285000.0,245000.0,222000.0,264000.0,299000.0,325000.0,297000.0,308000.0,320000.0,311000.0,315000.0,301000.0,272000.0,240000.0,226000.0,273000.0,320000.0,356000.0,390000.0,365000.0,378000.0,356000.0,346000.0,334000.0,303000.0,269000.0,256000.0,305000.0,357000.0,392000.0,1270000.0,720000.0,660000.0,780000.0,540000.0,480000.0,420000.0,370000.0,350000.0,410000.0,470000.0,525000.0,490000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,3400.0,3700.0,3800.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3600.0,3900.0,4000.0,3300.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,3400.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3800.0,4100.0,4200.0,3500.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,4100.0,4400.0,4500.0,3800.0,4200.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,4300.0,4600.0,4700.0,3900.0,4400.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,4500.0,5000.0,4900.0,4100.0,4700.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4800.0,5100.0,5200.0,4300.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,4800.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4800.0,5100.0,5200.0,4300.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,4800.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4800.0,5100.0,5200.0,4300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[26800.0,17400.0,20900.0,18600.0,16700.0,14900.0,14600.0,15400.0,24100.0,19500.0,16300.0,12300.0,25300.0,16400.0,19700.0,17600.0,15900.0,14600.0,13500.0,14700.0,22300.0,18500.0,15200.0,11800.0,28100.0,17300.0,21400.0,19200.0,17700.0,15600.0,14700.0,15800.0,23800.0,20100.0,16800.0,13100.0,29300.0,18600.0,22300.0,20700.0,18300.0,16600.0,15500.0,16800.0,25900.0,21300.0,17400.0,13700.0,37000.0,25000.0,30500.0,28000.0,24200.0,20800.0,19600.0,20900.0,32000.0,26800.0,21900.0,16900.0,41300.0,26400.0,31500.0,28600.0,25700.0,23100.0,21400.0,22800.0,35800.0,29900.0,24500.0,18800.0,43900.0,28100.0,33700.0,30900.0,27800.0,24900.0,23400.0,24800.0,38200.0,32400.0,26400.0,20600.0,48600.0,31000.0,37200.0,34200.0,30900.0,27600.0,34000.0,32000.0,42500.0,35900.0,29300.0,22800.0,51500.0,32700.0,39800.0,36400.0,32800.0,29500.0,27600.0,29400.0,45300.0,38300.0,31200.0,24100.0,54500.0,34700.0,42100.0,38600.0,34800.0,31100.0,29200.0,31200.0,47800.0,40500.0,33200.0,25600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2180.0,2050.0,2320.0,2240.0,2390.0,2200.0,1940.0,2010.0,2380.0,2510.0,2420.0,2070.0,2260.0,2180.0,2490.0,2380.0,2500.0,2310.0,2070.0,2110.0,2570.0,2690.0,2550.0,2190.0,2410.0,2300.0,2630.0,2500.0,2650.0,2380.0,2150.0,2220.0,2690.0,2830.0,2700.0,2310.0,2520.0,2420.0,2750.0,2670.0,2780.0,2510.0,2260.0,2340.0,2860.0,3020.0,2870.0,2450.0,2680.0,2590.0,3040.0,3190.0,3120.0,2820.0,2570.0,2630.0,3050.0,3200.0,3010.0,2670.0,2830.0,2720.0,3090.0,2980.0,3110.0,2840.0,2580.0,2660.0,3150.0,3290.0,3130.0,2730.0,2950.0,2830.0,3210.0,3120.0,3250.0,2960.0,2700.0,2780.0,3260.0,3820.0,3410.0,2890.0,3060.0,2940.0,3290.0,3180.0,3370.0,3040.0,2780.0,2860.0,3370.0,3510.0,3350.0,2950.0,3150.0,3020.0,3390.0,3260.0,3450.0,3140.0,2870.0,2960.0,3470.0,3640.0,3450.0,3040.0,3260.0,3130.0,3510.0,3390.0,3590.0,3240.0,2980.0,3060.0,3590.0,3780.0,3570.0,3160.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4515.0,4730.0,4730.0,4515.0,4300.0,3870.0,3655.0,3870.0,4730.0,4730.0,4300.0,3655.0,4725.0,4950.0,4950.0,4725.0,4500.0,4050.0,3825.0,4050.0,4950.0,4950.0,4500.0,3825.0,4935.0,5170.0,5170.0,4935.0,4700.0,4230.0,3995.0,4230.0,5170.0,5170.0,4700.0,3995.0,5040.0,5280.0,5280.0,5040.0,4800.0,4320.0,4080.0,4320.0,5280.0,5280.0,4800.0,4080.0,5565.0,5830.0,5830.0,5565.0,5300.0,4770.0,4505.0,4770.0,5830.0,5830.0,5300.0,4505.0,5250.0,5500.0,5500.0,5250.0,5000.0,4500.0,4250.0,4500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4250.0,4830.0,5060.0,5060.0,4830.0,4600.0,4140.0,3910.0,4140.0,5060.0,5060.0,4600.0,3910.0,4305.0,4510.0,4510.0,4305.0,4100.0,3690.0,3485.0,3690.0,4510.0,4510.0,4100.0,3485.0,3780.0,3960.0,3960.0,3780.0,3600.0,3240.0,3060.0,3240.0,3960.0,3960.0,3600.0,3060.0,3360.0,3520.0,3520.0,3360.0,3200.0,2880.0,2720.0,2880.0,3520.0,3520.0,3200.0,2720.0]}},{"title":"Malacostraca","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Malacostraca\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[4789,5644,6421,6789,6842,4870,4452,4503,5395,5567,5969,5255,5701,6127,7531,7235,6794,5437,5169,5743,5239,6031,6380,5107,5881,6319,7662,7301,6924,5485,5630,5521,5431,6144,6272,5734,6184,5976,6784,6584,6555,5027,5362,5282,5408,6451,6059,5583,5763,5930,6359,7334,7453,5388,5482,5284,5535,8377,8841,8516,7497,6328,7855,7433,7896,6664,10072,9108,8788,9570,9179,8932,9372,8876,9071,9372,9623,8673,8433,9372,9516,9956,9974,8760,9752,8679,11330,10270,12073,8889,8430,8160,9869,7920,13061,10260,8176,7604,9366,9768,12332,8964,8937,8566,8640,8906,8377,8723,11004,8660,8914,8615,9144,8246,8382,9150,7508,7877,10228,7463],"flat_reference_value":17035.406415066725,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[3100.0,3400.0,3800.0,3900.0,3500.0,2900.0,2600.0,2800.0,3400.0,3900.0,3700.0,2900.0,3300.0,3600.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,3100.0,2800.0,3000.0,3700.0,4200.0,3900.0,3100.0,3500.0,3700.0,4300.0,4200.0,3900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3800.0,4400.0,4100.0,3200.0,3700.0,3900.0,4500.0,4400.0,4000.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,4000.0,4600.0,4200.0,3400.0,3900.0,4100.0,4500.0,4700.0,4200.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,4200.0,4800.0,4500.0,3600.0,4000.0,4100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4200.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,4100.0,4900.0,4500.0,3500.0,3900.0,4000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4100.0,3400.0,3100.0,3400.0,4100.0,4700.0,4400.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,4600.0,4400.0,4000.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,4000.0,4600.0,4200.0,3400.0,3700.0,3900.0,4500.0,4300.0,3900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3900.0,4500.0,4100.0,3300.0,3600.0,3700.0,4300.0,4100.0,3800.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,3800.0,4300.0,4000.0,3200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[10250.0,10600.0,11900.0,12150.0,11600.0,9750.0,9500.0,9650.0,10900.0,12100.0,11650.0,9800.0,10450.0,10500.0,12100.0,12300.0,11800.0,9900.0,9650.0,9800.0,11100.0,12350.0,11850.0,9950.0,10600.0,10650.0,12250.0,12450.0,11900.0,10050.0,9850.0,10000.0,11250.0,12500.0,11950.0,10100.0,10800.0,10850.0,12400.0,12650.0,12100.0,10200.0,10050.0,10150.0,11450.0,12750.0,12150.0,10300.0,11050.0,11200.0,11400.0,13100.0,12850.0,11100.0,10850.0,10950.0,12100.0,13600.0,13200.0,11500.0,12100.0,11950.0,13400.0,13550.0,12800.0,10850.0,10550.0,10650.0,11800.0,12950.0,12400.0,10500.0,11150.0,11050.0,12500.0,12600.0,11950.0,10150.0,9900.0,10000.0,11150.0,12250.0,11700.0,9850.0,10500.0,10350.0,11750.0,11850.0,11200.0,9550.0,9350.0,9450.0,10450.0,11450.0,10900.0,9150.0,9750.0,9900.0,10950.0,11100.0,10500.0,8950.0,8800.0,8900.0,9850.0,10800.0,10250.0,8650.0,9200.0,9100.0,10350.0,10500.0,9950.0,8500.0,8350.0,8450.0,9350.0,10250.0,9750.0,8250.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[10200.0,12800.0,14100.0,13900.0,12400.0,8800.0,7600.0,7900.0,11300.0,13700.0,14200.0,9500.0,10500.0,12900.0,14400.0,13700.0,12200.0,8600.0,7400.0,7800.0,11100.0,13500.0,13900.0,9200.0,10100.0,12400.0,13800.0,13500.0,11900.0,8300.0,7100.0,7600.0,10800.0,13100.0,13600.0,8900.0,9800.0,12100.0,13400.0,13000.0,11500.0,8100.0,6900.0,7300.0,10400.0,12800.0,13200.0,8600.0,9500.0,11600.0,11200.0,12400.0,11000.0,7900.0,6700.0,7100.0,10200.0,12400.0,12700.0,8300.0,9100.0,11400.0,12800.0,12300.0,10900.0,7600.0,6500.0,6800.0,9800.0,12000.0,12400.0,8100.0,8900.0,11100.0,12300.0,11900.0,10500.0,7300.0,6300.0,6600.0,9500.0,11600.0,11900.0,7800.0,8500.0,10600.0,11800.0,11300.0,10000.0,6900.0,6000.0,6300.0,9100.0,11100.0,11400.0,7400.0,8200.0,10200.0,11400.0,10900.0,9700.0,6700.0,5800.0,6100.0,8800.0,10700.0,11000.0,7200.0,8000.0,9900.0,11100.0,10600.0,9400.0,6500.0,5600.0,5900.0,8500.0,10400.0,10700.0,7000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[17100.0,18900.0,19800.0,18900.0,18000.0,15300.0,14400.0,15300.0,18000.0,19800.0,19800.0,15300.0,16200.0,17800.0,18700.0,17800.0,17000.0,14400.0,13600.0,14400.0,17000.0,18700.0,18700.0,14400.0,15200.0,16800.0,17600.0,16800.0,16000.0,13600.0,12800.0,13600.0,16000.0,17600.0,17600.0,13600.0,14700.0,16300.0,17000.0,16300.0,15500.0,13200.0,12400.0,13200.0,15500.0,17000.0,17000.0,13200.0,14800.0,16300.0,17500.0,18200.0,17000.0,14100.0,13400.0,14000.0,16200.0,18300.0,19500.0,16800.0,15600.0,16400.0,16900.0,15900.0,15000.0,12800.0,12000.0,12700.0,15000.0,16500.0,16400.0,12700.0,12800.0,14200.0,14800.0,14200.0,13500.0,11500.0,10800.0,11500.0,13500.0,14800.0,14800.0,11500.0,11900.0,13100.0,13700.0,13100.0,12500.0,10600.0,10000.0,10600.0,12500.0,13700.0,13700.0,10600.0,10900.0,12100.0,12600.0,12100.0,11500.0,9800.0,9200.0,9800.0,11500.0,12600.0,12600.0,9800.0,10000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,8900.0,8400.0,8900.0,10500.0,11500.0,11500.0,8900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[18200.0,18500.0,19600.0,19000.0,18400.0,16200.0,15800.0,16100.0,18200.0,19500.0,19100.0,16400.0,16500.0,16600.0,17500.0,16900.0,16300.0,14300.0,13900.0,14100.0,15900.0,17000.0,16600.0,14200.0,14300.0,14200.0,14900.0,14300.0,13800.0,12000.0,11700.0,11900.0,13300.0,14200.0,13900.0,11900.0,12400.0,12500.0,13100.0,12700.0,12300.0,10800.0,10600.0,10800.0,12100.0,13000.0,12700.0,10900.0,12000.0,12100.0,13000.0,14200.0,14000.0,12300.0,11700.0,11800.0,12800.0,13500.0,13200.0,11500.0,12000.0,11900.0,12400.0,11800.0,11400.0,10000.0,9700.0,9800.0,10900.0,11600.0,11300.0,9700.0,10300.0,10400.0,10900.0,10500.0,10200.0,8900.0,8700.0,8900.0,10000.0,10700.0,10500.0,9000.0,9700.0,9800.0,10300.0,10000.0,9700.0,8500.0,8300.0,8500.0,9500.0,10200.0,10000.0,8600.0,9200.0,9300.0,9800.0,9500.0,9200.0,8100.0,7900.0,8100.0,9100.0,9800.0,9600.0,8200.0,8800.0,8900.0,9400.0,9100.0,8800.0,7700.0,7500.0,7700.0,8600.0,9200.0,9000.0,7700.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6100.0,7050.0,7350.0,6750.0,6450.0,5950.0,5750.0,6150.0,7600.0,7850.0,7050.0,5600.0,6150.0,7300.0,7450.0,6800.0,6600.0,6050.0,5850.0,6200.0,7750.0,8000.0,7200.0,5700.0,6250.0,7350.0,7500.0,6950.0,6650.0,6100.0,5950.0,6300.0,7850.0,8050.0,7300.0,5750.0,6450.0,7600.0,7700.0,7100.0,6850.0,6300.0,6150.0,6500.0,8100.0,8300.0,7550.0,5950.0,6500.0,7650.0,7400.0,6900.0,6800.0,6350.0,6200.0,6450.0,7700.0,8900.0,7400.0,5900.0,6500.0,7700.0,7800.0,7100.0,6900.0,6250.0,6100.0,6450.0,8050.0,8250.0,7500.0,5950.0,6300.0,7400.0,7500.0,6900.0,6650.0,6100.0,5950.0,6250.0,7850.0,8000.0,7300.0,5750.0,6000.0,7050.0,7150.0,6600.0,6400.0,5850.0,5700.0,6000.0,7500.0,7650.0,7000.0,5500.0,5800.0,6850.0,6950.0,6500.0,6200.0,5650.0,5550.0,5800.0,7250.0,7450.0,6800.0,5350.0,5700.0,6700.0,6850.0,6350.0,6050.0,5600.0,5450.0,5700.0,7150.0,7300.0,6700.0,5250.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4020.0,4085.0,4230.0,3840.0,3510.0,2945.0,2435.0,2820.0,3685.0,4035.0,3860.0,2920.0,3960.0,3950.0,4140.0,3785.0,3455.0,2920.0,2410.0,2760.0,3610.0,3970.0,3795.0,2925.0,3895.0,3905.0,4065.0,3730.0,3395.0,2875.0,2370.0,2715.0,3560.0,3900.0,3735.0,2870.0,3830.0,3835.0,4000.0,3665.0,3340.0,2830.0,2335.0,2670.0,3500.0,3835.0,3670.0,2835.0,3770.0,3775.0,5510.0,5775.0,4260.0,3210.0,2295.0,2625.0,3445.0,3775.0,3610.0,2790.0,3710.0,3715.0,3870.0,3550.0,3230.0,2740.0,2255.0,2580.0,3385.0,3710.0,3550.0,2740.0,3645.0,3650.0,3805.0,3485.0,3175.0,2695.0,2215.0,2535.0,3330.0,3645.0,3490.0,2695.0,3580.0,3585.0,3735.0,3425.0,3120.0,2645.0,2180.0,2490.0,3270.0,3580.0,3425.0,2645.0,3520.0,3580.0,3670.0,3365.0,3065.0,2600.0,2140.0,2450.0,3215.0,3520.0,3365.0,2600.0,3455.0,3455.0,3605.0,3305.0,3010.0,2555.0,2105.0,2405.0,3155.0,3455.0,3305.0,2555.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5700.0,5600.0,6050.0,5950.0,5700.0,5050.0,4750.0,4950.0,5900.0,6050.0,5700.0,4950.0,5450.0,5350.0,5780.0,5670.0,5450.0,4820.0,4550.0,4700.0,5620.0,5780.0,5450.0,4700.0,5200.0,5100.0,5510.0,5400.0,5200.0,4600.0,4330.0,4490.0,5350.0,5510.0,5200.0,4490.0,5000.0,4900.0,5290.0,5190.0,5000.0,4410.0,4170.0,4700.0,5150.0,5290.0,5000.0,4310.0,5500.0,5400.0,6530.0,6750.0,6060.0,5100.0,4730.0,4850.0,5780.0,5950.0,5500.0,4660.0,5300.0,5200.0,5620.0,5510.0,5300.0,4680.0,4800.0,4580.0,5460.0,5620.0,5300.0,4580.0,4950.0,4850.0,5240.0,5140.0,4950.0,4370.0,4120.0,4270.0,5090.0,5240.0,4950.0,4270.0,4640.0,4550.0,5200.0,4820.0,4640.0,4100.0,3870.0,4000.0,4780.0,4910.0,4640.0,4000.0,4440.0,4780.0,4700.0,4610.0,4440.0,3920.0,3700.0,3830.0,4570.0,4700.0,4440.0,3830.0,4230.0,4150.0,4480.0,4400.0,4230.0,3740.0,3530.0,3650.0,4360.0,4480.0,4230.0,3650.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1850.0,1810.0,1795.0,1740.0,1710.0,1515.0,1430.0,1480.0,1770.0,1825.0,1790.0,1550.0,1905.0,1875.0,1840.0,1805.0,1770.0,1560.0,1475.0,1525.0,1820.0,1875.0,1840.0,1595.0,1965.0,1930.0,1895.0,1858.0,1822.0,1605.0,1518.0,1570.0,1875.0,1930.0,1895.0,1642.0,2020.0,1985.0,1948.0,1910.0,1875.0,1650.0,1560.0,1615.0,1930.0,1985.0,1948.0,1688.0,2075.0,2040.0,2000.0,1965.0,1925.0,1695.0,1600.0,1660.0,1980.0,2040.0,2000.0,1735.0,2025.0,1990.0,1950.0,1915.0,1875.0,1655.0,1565.0,1620.0,1930.0,1985.0,1950.0,1690.0,1970.0,1935.0,1900.0,1865.0,1830.0,1610.0,1520.0,1575.0,1880.0,1935.0,1900.0,1645.0,1915.0,1880.0,1845.0,1810.0,1775.0,1565.0,1480.0,1530.0,1825.0,1880.0,1845.0,1600.0,1860.0,1825.0,1790.0,1755.0,1720.0,1520.0,1435.0,1485.0,1775.0,1825.0,1790.0,1550.0,1805.0,1770.0,1740.0,1705.0,1670.0,1475.0,1395.0,1440.0,1720.0,1770.0,1740.0,1505.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3260.0,3228.0,3362.0,3142.0,2929.0,2800.0,2571.0,2896.0,3442.0,3456.0,3172.0,2664.0,3369.0,3537.0,3335.0,3308.0,3180.0,2776.0,2817.0,2959.0,3697.0,3428.0,3407.0,2644.0,3569.0,3496.0,3534.0,3269.0,3334.0,2943.0,2728.0,3135.0,3728.0,3633.0,3367.0,2801.0,3544.0,3723.0,3617.0,3551.0,3279.0,3072.0,2965.0,3114.0,3930.0,3681.0,3550.0,2782.0,3977.0,4054.0,4804.0,4317.0,3752.0,3246.0,3228.0,3459.0,4321.0,4088.0,3904.0,3091.0,4004.0,4123.0,4126.0,3817.0,3779.0,3402.0,3186.0,3624.0,4352.0,4116.0,4639.0,3271.0,3951.0,3871.0,3873.0,3729.0,3512.0,3975.0,3144.0,3369.0,4209.0,3982.0,3803.0,3010.0,3659.0,3768.0,3623.0,3558.0,3386.0,3139.0,2882.0,3697.0,3977.0,3724.0,3592.0,2901.0,3512.0,3475.0,3547.0,3315.0,3185.0,3452.0,2851.0,2994.0,3742.0,3647.0,3346.0,2785.0,3305.0,3403.0,3338.0,3119.0,3151.0,2780.0,2710.0,2933.0,3628.0,3363.0,3245.0,2594.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[5200.0,5510.0,5770.0,5510.0,5250.0,4780.0,4470.0,4420.0,5670.0,5820.0,5460.0,4370.0,5500.0,5830.0,6110.0,5830.0,5560.0,5060.0,4730.0,4680.0,6000.0,6160.0,5780.0,4620.0,5800.0,6150.0,6440.0,6150.0,5860.0,5340.0,4990.0,4930.0,6320.0,6500.0,6090.0,4870.0,6100.0,6470.0,6770.0,6470.0,6160.0,5610.0,5250.0,5190.0,6650.0,6830.0,6410.0,5120.0,6200.0,6600.0,9500.0,10500.0,9800.0,8400.0,8000.0,7900.0,8600.0,8800.0,8300.0,7000.0,7800.0,8270.0,8660.0,8270.0,7880.0,7180.0,6710.0,6630.0,8500.0,8740.0,11700.0,6900.0,7000.0,7420.0,7770.0,7420.0,7070.0,6440.0,8000.0,5950.0,7630.0,9500.0,9000.0,5880.0,6400.0,6780.0,7100.0,6780.0,6460.0,5890.0,5500.0,5440.0,6980.0,7170.0,8500.0,5380.0,5900.0,6250.0,6550.0,6250.0,5960.0,6430.0,5070.0,5020.0,6430.0,6610.0,6200.0,4960.0,5600.0,7400.0,6220.0,5940.0,5660.0,5150.0,4820.0,4760.0,6100.0,6270.0,5880.0,4700.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[8410.0,8760.0,8920.0,8390.0,7870.0,7250.0,6940.0,7180.0,8530.0,9060.0,8790.0,7820.0,8960.0,9260.0,9430.0,8910.0,8430.0,7790.0,7340.0,7610.0,9160.0,9610.0,9370.0,8310.0,9520.0,9790.0,10030.0,9470.0,8960.0,8210.0,7760.0,8090.0,9650.0,10180.0,9940.0,8830.0,10310.0,10570.0,10760.0,10180.0,9650.0,8830.0,8310.0,8720.0,10410.0,10890.0,10690.0,9490.0,12650.0,12960.0,15250.0,15450.0,12480.0,10820.0,10220.0,10690.0,12750.0,13360.0,13100.0,11650.0,13850.0,14210.0,14480.0,13700.0,12950.0,11840.0,11180.0,11710.0,13960.0,14670.0,14390.0,12760.0,13430.0,13800.0,14050.0,13270.0,12540.0,11510.0,10870.0,11380.0,13540.0,14190.0,13930.0,12370.0,14160.0,14540.0,14810.0,13980.0,13230.0,12140.0,11450.0,11970.0,14290.0,14960.0,14690.0,13020.0,14900.0,15300.0,15580.0,14750.0,13950.0,12780.0,12040.0,12590.0,15040.0,15740.0,15460.0,13740.0,15650.0,16060.0,16340.0,15480.0,14620.0,13400.0,12620.0,13200.0,15780.0,16520.0,16210.0,14410.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,1800.0,1600.0,1700.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,1800.0,1600.0,1700.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,1800.0,1600.0,1700.0,2200.0,2400.0,2400.0,1900.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,1800.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,1800.0,1600.0,1700.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,1800.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,1700.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1600.0,1400.0,1500.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,1600.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1500.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1700.0,1900.0,1900.0,1400.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1600.0,1800.0,1800.0,1300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[13820.0,12410.0,14590.0,13620.0,14870.0,10340.0,9570.0,10980.0,14310.0,13260.0,12190.0,9710.0,14470.0,13380.0,15240.0,14180.0,15580.0,10910.0,10080.0,11490.0,14980.0,13880.0,12790.0,10240.0,15080.0,13920.0,15930.0,14810.0,16220.0,11380.0,10530.0,11940.0,15650.0,14490.0,13350.0,10680.0,15600.0,14420.0,16490.0,15310.0,16780.0,11760.0,10880.0,12370.0,16180.0,15000.0,13820.0,11030.0,16690.0,15820.0,18670.0,18340.0,18120.0,12260.0,11430.0,13020.0,17750.0,16470.0,15040.0,11920.0,15390.0,14210.0,16150.0,14950.0,16420.0,11490.0,10590.0,11930.0,15830.0,14670.0,13370.0,10750.0,14620.0,13620.0,15330.0,14340.0,15620.0,11170.0,10290.0,11730.0,16620.0,15630.0,13410.0,10470.0,14400.0,13430.0,15120.0,14150.0,15820.0,11550.0,10300.0,11710.0,15250.0,13990.0,13060.0,10310.0,14090.0,13140.0,14790.0,13840.0,15210.0,10750.0,9920.0,11310.0,15050.0,13680.0,12760.0,10080.0,13560.0,12650.0,14080.0,14360.0,14620.0,10350.0,9560.0,10880.0,14220.0,13050.0,12140.0,9680.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1720.0,1590.0,1660.0,1690.0,1740.0,1620.0,1550.0,1580.0,1690.0,1740.0,1630.0,1480.0,1670.0,1540.0,1630.0,1650.0,1700.0,1580.0,1510.0,1530.0,1650.0,1690.0,1580.0,1450.0,1600.0,1500.0,1580.0,1600.0,1650.0,1530.0,1470.0,1490.0,1600.0,1640.0,1540.0,1400.0,1550.0,1450.0,1530.0,1550.0,1600.0,1490.0,1430.0,1450.0,1550.0,1590.0,1490.0,1360.0,1580.0,1510.0,1750.0,1820.0,1760.0,1650.0,1570.0,1610.0,1720.0,1780.0,1660.0,1510.0,1650.0,1560.0,1630.0,1660.0,1710.0,1590.0,1530.0,1550.0,1670.0,1710.0,1600.0,1460.0,1560.0,1470.0,1550.0,1570.0,1620.0,1510.0,1440.0,1470.0,1570.0,1610.0,1510.0,1380.0,1530.0,1440.0,1520.0,1540.0,1590.0,1480.0,1420.0,1440.0,1540.0,1580.0,1480.0,1350.0,1500.0,1410.0,1490.0,1510.0,1560.0,1450.0,1390.0,1410.0,1510.0,1550.0,1450.0,1320.0,1470.0,1380.0,1460.0,1480.0,1530.0,1420.0,1360.0,1380.0,1480.0,1520.0,1420.0,1290.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1208.0,1242.0,1265.0,1231.0,1208.0,1093.0,1012.0,1035.0,1242.0,1265.0,1219.0,1058.0,1260.0,1296.0,1320.0,1284.0,1260.0,1140.0,1056.0,1080.0,1296.0,1320.0,1272.0,1104.0,1281.0,1318.0,1342.0,1305.0,1281.0,1159.0,1074.0,1098.0,1318.0,1342.0,1293.0,1122.0,1239.0,1274.0,1298.0,1263.0,1239.0,1121.0,1038.0,1062.0,1274.0,1298.0,1251.0,1086.0,1313.0,1350.0,1375.0,1338.0,1313.0,1188.0,1100.0,1125.0,1350.0,1375.0,1325.0,1150.0,1208.0,1242.0,1265.0,1231.0,1208.0,1093.0,1012.0,1035.0,1242.0,1265.0,1219.0,1058.0,1103.0,1134.0,1155.0,1124.0,1103.0,998.0,924.0,945.0,1134.0,1155.0,1113.0,966.0,998.0,1026.0,1045.0,1017.0,998.0,903.0,836.0,855.0,1026.0,1045.0,1007.0,874.0,893.0,918.0,935.0,910.0,893.0,808.0,748.0,765.0,918.0,935.0,901.0,782.0,788.0,810.0,825.0,803.0,788.0,713.0,660.0,675.0,810.0,825.0,795.0,690.0]}},{"title":"Rosemarie DeWitt","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Rosemarie DeWitt\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[47547,36362,43741,39112,35646,35238,46255,36281,33951,38281,43841,90594,174954,80617,50242,45434,40940,31952,40109,47172,45271,47258,44671,83634,129335,49578,47909,43382,41471,36092,52035,73146,65136,51361,38299,50161,63494,51610,50789,38938,46768,44860,43037,50919,43891,40865,37303,40454,43813,45492,74091,95057,89463,67817,52902,44773,37792,39440,40032,48302,53694,70389,57169,51936,55814,44369,43369,45612,45326,38043,32766,32089,44152,34113,33946,39948,77523,50278,38349,34628,30836,32122,33726,42126,72596,60037,54162,53703,57060,88009,62035,72479,58558,60342,59144,57549,190797,104497,71692,57696,54860,125938,85911,60581,55525,148848,131020,105923,85437,61917,59586,60074,55746,52623,302326,171338,68172,59850,51218,71593],"flat_reference_value":16861.757308803222,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[14000.0,12500.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,13000.0,16000.0,26000.0,34000.0,30000.0,24000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,30000.0,75000.0,40000.0,27000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,23000.0,21000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,26000.0,23000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,30000.0,45000.0,30000.0,22000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17000.0,19000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,37000.0,42000.0,24000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,85000.0,100000.0,42000.0,28000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,41000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,68000.0,95000.0,82000.0,54000.0,46000.0,43000.0,41000.0,62000.0,58000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,85000.0,195000.0,76000.0,52000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,44000.0,51000.0,43000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,46000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,98000.0,165000.0,88000.0,56000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,42000.0,44000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,96000.0,105000.0,54000.0,42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,42000.0,39000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,155000.0,175000.0,68000.0,46000.0,125000.0,110000.0,64000.0,52000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,45000.0,92000.0,74000.0,46000.0,42000.0,39000.0,41000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[27400.0,26100.0,25300.0,24800.0,23900.0,24500.0,25200.0,26700.0,28100.0,26400.0,27800.0,37200.0,42500.0,39600.0,31800.0,28100.0,26400.0,27200.0,28900.0,26500.0,25100.0,26800.0,29400.0,36100.0,84500.0,46200.0,34100.0,28900.0,27300.0,26500.0,27800.0,25900.0,24200.0,26100.0,28300.0,27500.0,28100.0,24700.0,25800.0,23600.0,25100.0,24400.0,26800.0,25300.0,23900.0,26400.0,25700.0,24900.0,26100.0,23800.0,27400.0,29600.0,28100.0,24500.0,25200.0,24100.0,23300.0,24900.0,23800.0,25600.0,26700.0,23100.0,24500.0,22900.0,23400.0,22100.0,24800.0,23600.0,22800.0,24200.0,25500.0,26900.0,27300.0,25100.0,26800.0,28400.0,56200.0,48300.0,32100.0,27400.0,25600.0,26800.0,26100.0,27500.0,28300.0,25200.0,26700.0,25900.0,24800.0,25600.0,27100.0,26400.0,25300.0,27800.0,28900.0,29500.0,31200.0,28400.0,29800.0,30500.0,38200.0,168000.0,215000.0,68400.0,46200.0,118000.0,94300.0,49800.0,41200.0,37500.0,35800.0,34600.0,33900.0,35200.0,34800.0,33400.0,32100.0,34500.0,33800.0,32600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,23000.0,38000.0,54000.0,48000.0,32000.0,25000.0,22000.0,21000.0,25000.0,24000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,38000.0,46000.0,30000.0,21000.0,18000.0,16500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,31000.0,27000.0,16000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9800.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,11000.0,14000.0,12000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9300.0,9200.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8800.0,8800.0,8800.0,9300.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[85000.0,75000.0,70000.0,68000.0,65000.0,62000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,65000.0,130000.0,230000.0,150000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,70000.0,68000.0,65000.0,62000.0,62000.0,65000.0,140000.0,260000.0,110000.0,85000.0,75000.0,70000.0,65000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,65000.0,68000.0,60000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,55000.0,56000.0,60000.0,65000.0,60000.0,220000.0,380000.0,200000.0,110000.0,90000.0,80000.0,70000.0,68000.0,65000.0,68000.0,70000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,58000.0,60000.0,55000.0,55000.0,60000.0,230000.0,170000.0,80000.0,65000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,56000.0,58000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,300000.0,330000.0,100000.0,65000.0,170000.0,110000.0,80000.0,85000.0,60000.0,55000.0,52000.0,55000.0,110000.0,130000.0,110000.0,60000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6100.0,5700.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,5500.0,5600.0,5300.0,5500.0,6000.0,5600.0,8900.0,11800.0,13200.0,8400.0,6900.0,6400.0,5900.0,5700.0,5500.0,5600.0,6100.0,5800.0,16500.0,12500.0,9200.0,7800.0,7200.0,6900.0,5600.0,5300.0,5100.0,5200.0,5700.0,5200.0,5300.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4600.0,5100.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,9300.0,9600.0,6100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5300.0,4800.0,4900.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,4700.0,4300.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,9800.0,7200.0,4900.0,4200.0,4100.0,4400.0,4000.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,4000.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3700.0,5000.0,4500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,20000.0,8500.0,4600.0,4300.0,3800.0,3800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[12480.0,11950.0,11320.0,10870.0,10910.0,10040.0,9420.0,9680.0,10310.0,11120.0,15180.0,25630.0,30310.0,34480.0,22350.0,13590.0,10520.0,9680.0,9120.0,9340.0,10010.0,10780.0,10940.0,10020.0,11910.0,11030.0,10920.0,10210.0,10050.0,9380.0,8840.0,9040.0,9690.0,10460.0,10580.0,9710.0,11530.0,10620.0,10510.0,9870.0,9830.0,9050.0,8520.0,8740.0,9360.0,10030.0,10220.0,9380.0,11120.0,10250.0,11600.0,11100.0,10850.0,8910.0,8250.0,8420.0,9210.0,9680.0,9850.0,9050.0,10720.0,9900.0,9780.0,9180.0,9140.0,8420.0,7930.0,8120.0,8690.0,9330.0,9510.0,8720.0,10310.0,9530.0,9410.0,8820.0,38750.0,26210.0,14580.0,9780.0,8520.0,8980.0,9150.0,8380.0,9910.0,9150.0,9050.0,15620.0,16410.0,10920.0,7340.0,7510.0,8040.0,8630.0,8790.0,8050.0,9510.0,8770.0,8680.0,8120.0,8110.0,7460.0,7040.0,7210.0,7710.0,8280.0,8430.0,7720.0,9110.0,8390.0,8320.0,49800.0,39720.0,22250.0,11710.0,6900.0,7530.0,7930.0,8080.0,7390.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,28000.0,45000.0,30000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,16000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,42000.0,45000.0,22000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,14000.0,38000.0,24000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,32000.0,20000.0,14500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14500.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,16500.0,17500.0,55000.0,48000.0,28000.0,18000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,6500.0,18000.0,22000.0,9000.0,4500.0,3200.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3200.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,4800.0,3200.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,12000.0,6000.0,2800.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[11800.0,10900.0,12400.0,10500.0,9900.0,9400.0,10200.0,9800.0,13600.0,14300.0,12100.0,21400.0,28600.0,27300.0,18400.0,12400.0,13900.0,11200.0,10800.0,10400.0,11600.0,11300.0,10700.0,10100.0,10900.0,10200.0,9700.0,9200.0,8900.0,9200.0,8700.0,8500.0,9300.0,12900.0,11400.0,9900.0,10200.0,9500.0,8900.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,8200.0,7700.0,8400.0,8100.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,8300.0,8600.0,7700.0,7100.0,6700.0,6400.0,6700.0,6300.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,5600.0,5900.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[7300.0,7600.0,7400.0,7200.0,7000.0,6700.0,6400.0,6600.0,7000.0,7200.0,7300.0,6400.0,7400.0,7700.0,8500.0,22000.0,32000.0,22000.0,10000.0,7200.0,7500.0,7800.0,8200.0,14000.0,18000.0,9500.0,7300.0,7100.0,6900.0,6600.0,6300.0,6500.0,6800.0,7100.0,7300.0,6200.0,6200.0,6400.0,6100.0,5700.0,5600.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,5500.0,5800.0,5900.0,5200.0,6400.0,6700.0,7800.0,9200.0,8600.0,7200.0,6600.0,6600.0,7000.0,7300.0,7500.0,6300.0,8000.0,8300.0,8300.0,8100.0,7800.0,7400.0,7000.0,7200.0,7600.0,7900.0,8200.0,7000.0,7700.0,7700.0,7700.0,7400.0,7100.0,6700.0,6300.0,6500.0,6900.0,7200.0,7500.0,6300.0,6900.0,6900.0,6700.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,6200.0,6500.0,6800.0,5900.0,6800.0,7100.0,8200.0,95000.0,65000.0,26000.0,13000.0,8000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7200.0,6000.0,6500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6100.0,5800.0,9000.0,6300.0,6900.0,85000.0,58000.0,12000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6800.0,6200.0,5700.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,6100.0,10500.0,9000.0,7000.0,6300.0,5900.0,6500.0,5600.0,5000.0,4600.0,4300.0,4100.0,4700.0,8900.0,7200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5000.0,5700.0,5100.0,6800.0,4800.0,4300.0,3900.0,3600.0,4100.0,4300.0,4500.0,5000.0,4600.0,4900.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,5600.0,6200.0,5400.0,6700.0,6100.0,7000.0,6500.0,7500.0,7200.0,5800.0,5200.0,4900.0,4500.0,5000.0,15000.0,12500.0,15500.0,11000.0,8500.0,40000.0,30000.0,18000.0,25000.0,14000.0,10500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,13000.0,22000.0,16000.0,12500.0,10000.0,8500.0,7500.0,6500.0,6000.0,5700.0,6300.0,6900.0,7800.0,19000.0,14000.0,60000.0,44000.0,28000.0,17000.0,12000.0,9500.0,8200.0,7800.0,8500.0,10500.0,30000.0,23000.0,13000.0,9500.0,8800.0,9200.0,8300.0,7000.0,6400.0,6700.0,7500.0,8600.0,27000.0,16000.0,12500.0,8500.0,15000.0,9800.0,8200.0,6800.0,6100.0,6400.0,7000.0,7600.0,8500.0,7200.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1500.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1500.0,2800.0,2600.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,3200.0,2800.0,2200.0,2000.0,4500.0,7000.0,4200.0,3000.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1900.0,1750.0,1650.0,1550.0,1700.0,1620.0,1540.0,1810.0,1730.0,1860.0,1920.0,1680.0,3550.0,2600.0,1950.0,1780.0,1820.0,1930.0,2010.0,1880.0,2080.0,1970.0,2060.0,1820.0,2090.0,1920.0,1870.0,1780.0,1830.0,1720.0,1660.0,1770.0,1910.0,2020.0,1970.0,1810.0,2520.0,2210.0,2120.0,2030.0,2140.0,2320.0,2210.0,5000.0,4000.0,3100.0,3800.0,3600.0,4100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,8200.0,5300.0,3400.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3300.0,6100.0,3200.0,2900.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,3200.0,3800.0,5200.0,4100.0,3600.0,4300.0,3800.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3800.0,6900.0,5400.0,4200.0,3700.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3400.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[420.0,390.0,430.0,410.0,450.0,470.0,440.0,460.0,480.0,520.0,610.0,1080.0,1480.0,1370.0,880.0,650.0,580.0,560.0,540.0,550.0,530.0,570.0,620.0,1030.0,790.0,650.0,570.0,540.0,520.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,520.0,550.0,570.0,590.0,610.0,560.0,520.0,490.0,480.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,490.0,520.0,540.0,560.0,580.0,540.0,520.0,570.0,620.0,590.0,560.0,530.0,510.0,520.0,540.0,560.0,550.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,510.0,560.0,620.0,570.0,520.0,500.0,510.0,540.0,560.0,530.0,550.0,620.0,1180.0,1580.0,1040.0,690.0,590.0,560.0,580.0,610.0,590.0,560.0,550.0,630.0,690.0,640.0,570.0,540.0,520.0,530.0,550.0,570.0,560.0,530.0,510.0,500.0,520.0,560.0,590.0,540.0,510.0,500.0,520.0,540.0,530.0,500.0,490.0,480.0,500.0,520.0,550.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,520.0,540.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,950.0,900.0,920.0,1000.0,1020.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1045.0,1000.0,950.0,930.0,900.0,855.0,875.0,950.0,970.0,950.0,950.0,924.0,968.0,924.0,880.0,862.0,836.0,792.0,810.0,880.0,898.0,880.0,880.0,893.0,935.0,893.0,850.0,833.0,808.0,765.0,782.0,850.0,867.0,850.0,850.0,945.0,990.0,1080.0,940.0,880.0,855.0,810.0,828.0,900.0,918.0,900.0,900.0,861.0,902.0,861.0,820.0,804.0,779.0,738.0,754.0,820.0,836.0,820.0,820.0,819.0,858.0,890.0,780.0,764.0,741.0,702.0,718.0,780.0,796.0,780.0,780.0,798.0,874.0,798.0,760.0,745.0,722.0,684.0,699.0,760.0,775.0,760.0,760.0,777.0,814.0,777.0,740.0,725.0,703.0,666.0,681.0,740.0,755.0,740.0,740.0,756.0,792.0,756.0,720.0,706.0,684.0,648.0,662.0,720.0,734.0,720.0,720.0]}},{"title":"Hegemonic masculinity","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Hegemonic masculinity\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[9118,12338,15272,16116,13529,8518,5814,6787,9878,19513,17889,16036,9601,11161,16413,13762,13777,9241,7766,7512,9288,15544,16004,13274,9787,11257,13936,15177,13502,8615,6569,20567,26726,40644,39447,33095,67230,35711,38455,32187,16670,11005,9249,9183,10661,16245,14315,13041,10522,11523,13079,13926,12936,10665,8698,7911,9763,16642,16362,13580,12843,10994,14947,14252,12246,8926,8108,7434,8476,12730,13650,12428,10487,8904,11987,12011,13057,9362,7814,7515,9091,12215,11821,11051,10111,8973,10605,10277,9106,7329,6418,6732,7570,9216,9514,8619,8550,8227,12272,9411,10790,8292,6396,5501,6027,6700,9371,6632,6723,6074,8786,7197,6275,6371,4532,4823,5569,5875,5935,5429],"flat_reference_value":17001.140101463137,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[8500.0,10400.0,11900.0,11500.0,9700.0,7200.0,6600.0,7300.0,10100.0,11900.0,11600.0,7900.0,9000.0,10900.0,12500.0,12100.0,10100.0,7500.0,6900.0,7700.0,10700.0,13000.0,12700.0,8700.0,9800.0,11800.0,13500.0,13000.0,10900.0,8100.0,7500.0,8200.0,11500.0,13600.0,13200.0,9000.0,11300.0,12500.0,14200.0,13700.0,11500.0,8500.0,7900.0,8700.0,12000.0,14300.0,13800.0,9400.0,10300.0,12400.0,13600.0,12600.0,10800.0,8700.0,8200.0,9000.0,12500.0,14700.0,14100.0,9700.0,10800.0,13000.0,14900.0,14400.0,12000.0,9000.0,8300.0,9200.0,12900.0,15200.0,14700.0,10100.0,11200.0,13400.0,15300.0,14800.0,12400.0,9400.0,8800.0,10100.0,13600.0,15800.0,15200.0,10800.0,12700.0,14000.0,15900.0,15300.0,12900.0,9700.0,10800.0,11500.0,14100.0,16300.0,15700.0,10600.0,11700.0,13900.0,15900.0,15400.0,12900.0,9600.0,8900.0,9900.0,13700.0,16200.0,15600.0,10500.0,11500.0,13600.0,15700.0,15100.0,12600.0,9300.0,8700.0,9700.0,13400.0,15800.0,15200.0,10200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[17400.0,21800.0,24500.0,26200.0,23100.0,15200.0,13100.0,14400.0,21500.0,25800.0,27400.0,21200.0,18500.0,23200.0,26400.0,27900.0,24600.0,16100.0,13900.0,15300.0,23100.0,29800.0,31900.0,24500.0,21400.0,26100.0,29500.0,31400.0,27800.0,18200.0,15800.0,17300.0,25600.0,30800.0,32600.0,25100.0,28400.0,27300.0,30600.0,32500.0,28700.0,18600.0,16200.0,17900.0,26300.0,31500.0,33100.0,25400.0,21900.0,26800.0,25200.0,30900.0,28400.0,19100.0,16700.0,18100.0,26100.0,31200.0,32800.0,25600.0,21600.0,25900.0,29100.0,30700.0,27100.0,17800.0,15400.0,16800.0,24500.0,29300.0,30900.0,23800.0,19800.0,24100.0,27200.0,28600.0,25100.0,16400.0,14600.0,17500.0,24200.0,28500.0,29700.0,22400.0,18600.0,22100.0,24800.0,25900.0,22300.0,14800.0,21400.0,23600.0,21900.0,24700.0,25600.0,19300.0,15800.0,18900.0,20800.0,21900.0,19100.0,12400.0,10900.0,11800.0,17400.0,20600.0,21500.0,16400.0,13700.0,16500.0,18400.0,19400.0,16800.0,10900.0,9600.0,10500.0,15300.0,18200.0,19100.0,14500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[21300.0,31500.0,36800.0,35400.0,24200.0,14900.0,12800.0,14600.0,26800.0,37200.0,38900.0,23400.0,22700.0,34600.0,39800.0,38200.0,25800.0,15600.0,13400.0,15900.0,30100.0,42500.0,44700.0,26100.0,26300.0,39500.0,44100.0,42700.0,28600.0,17200.0,14800.0,17500.0,33900.0,46800.0,48200.0,28400.0,31200.0,43100.0,47500.0,45300.0,29800.0,17800.0,15100.0,17900.0,34500.0,46100.0,47200.0,27900.0,27400.0,41200.0,36100.0,37800.0,26200.0,16900.0,14200.0,16400.0,32100.0,44800.0,45600.0,26500.0,25800.0,38900.0,44300.0,41800.0,27400.0,16200.0,13900.0,16100.0,31500.0,43700.0,44900.0,25600.0,24900.0,37400.0,42600.0,40100.0,26100.0,15400.0,13100.0,15200.0,29800.0,41500.0,42800.0,24500.0,23800.0,35900.0,40800.0,38500.0,24900.0,14600.0,12400.0,14400.0,28300.0,39600.0,40900.0,23100.0,22500.0,33800.0,38400.0,36200.0,23400.0,13800.0,11800.0,13700.0,26900.0,37500.0,38700.0,21900.0,21400.0,32300.0,36900.0,34800.0,22300.0,13100.0,11200.0,13000.0,25700.0,36100.0,37200.0,20800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[15500.0,18500.0,19500.0,18500.0,16500.0,12500.0,11000.0,11500.0,16000.0,19500.0,20000.0,13500.0,16000.0,19500.0,20500.0,19000.0,17000.0,13000.0,11500.0,12000.0,16500.0,20000.0,21000.0,14000.0,17000.0,20500.0,21500.0,20000.0,17500.0,13000.0,11500.0,12000.0,16500.0,20500.0,21000.0,14000.0,22000.0,21500.0,21000.0,19500.0,17000.0,12500.0,11000.0,11500.0,16000.0,19500.0,20000.0,13500.0,15500.0,18500.0,16500.0,17000.0,15500.0,12500.0,10500.0,10500.0,15000.0,18000.0,18000.0,12000.0,14000.0,16500.0,17500.0,16000.0,14000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9500.0,13500.0,16000.0,16500.0,11000.0,12500.0,15000.0,15500.0,14500.0,12500.0,9500.0,8500.0,9000.0,12500.0,15000.0,15000.0,10000.0,12000.0,14000.0,14500.0,13500.0,11500.0,9000.0,11500.0,10500.0,12000.0,14000.0,14000.0,9500.0,11000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,11000.0,8500.0,7500.0,8000.0,11000.0,13000.0,13500.0,9000.0,10500.0,12000.0,17000.0,16000.0,11500.0,8500.0,7500.0,7500.0,10500.0,12500.0,12500.0,8500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[32000.0,36000.0,40000.0,40500.0,36500.0,27500.0,25500.0,27000.0,36000.0,42000.0,42500.0,32000.0,35000.0,39000.0,43500.0,43000.0,39500.0,30000.0,28000.0,29500.0,38500.0,45500.0,45500.0,34500.0,37500.0,41000.0,45500.0,46000.0,41500.0,31500.0,29500.0,31000.0,40500.0,47500.0,47000.0,36000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44500.0,43500.0,39500.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,38000.0,44000.0,43500.0,32500.0,32500.0,35000.0,36500.0,38000.0,35500.0,29000.0,25000.0,25500.0,32500.0,37500.0,37500.0,28500.0,28000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,22500.0,20500.0,21000.0,27000.0,31000.0,30500.0,22500.0,22000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25500.0,23000.0,17500.0,16000.0,16500.0,21500.0,25000.0,24500.0,18000.0,18000.0,19500.0,21500.0,21000.0,19500.0,14500.0,13500.0,14500.0,18000.0,21000.0,20500.0,15000.0,15500.0,17000.0,18500.0,18500.0,17000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,16000.0,18500.0,18000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15500.0,17500.0,17000.0,15500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,14500.0,17000.0,16500.0,12500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20500.0,19000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,22000.0,23000.0,27000.0,18500.0,21000.0,22500.0,23000.0,21000.0,19500.0,18000.0,17000.0,18500.0,23000.0,28000.0,30000.0,20000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25500.0,24000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19500.0,21000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,20000.0,68000.0,42000.0,34000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,21000.0,26000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,29000.0,25000.0,26000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,23000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,25000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,48000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,58000.0,43000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,40000.0,45000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,32000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[7823.0,8912.0,9254.0,8631.0,6420.0,4387.0,4052.0,5021.0,7854.0,9320.0,8894.0,5123.0,8341.0,9523.0,9867.0,9214.0,6682.0,4735.0,4398.0,5389.0,8420.0,11842.0,12486.0,5489.0,9472.0,10831.0,11204.0,10487.0,7512.0,5378.0,4985.0,6102.0,9537.0,11283.0,10745.0,6189.0,14582.0,13924.0,12463.0,11712.0,8428.0,6014.0,5587.0,6821.0,10634.0,12581.0,11973.0,6942.0,11123.0,12684.0,14632.0,13387.0,8845.0,6321.0,5874.0,7156.0,11234.0,13287.0,14152.0,7328.0,11684.0,13312.0,13804.0,12987.0,9284.0,6642.0,6153.0,7519.0,11783.0,13921.0,13254.0,7654.0,12793.0,14562.0,15123.0,14218.0,10174.0,7291.0,6785.0,11234.0,14872.0,17638.0,15984.0,8412.0,13345.0,15218.0,15764.0,14892.0,10623.0,7624.0,9843.0,10572.0,13486.0,15892.0,15134.0,8765.0,12247.0,13931.0,14458.0,13582.0,9724.0,6973.0,6458.0,7864.0,12352.0,14587.0,16423.0,8037.0,11692.0,13287.0,13795.0,12963.0,9287.0,6651.0,6178.0,7482.0,11764.0,13873.0,13241.0,7648.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[18700.0,18400.0,17850.0,17000.0,16150.0,14450.0,13600.0,14450.0,17850.0,18400.0,19600.0,15640.0,29000.0,23600.0,20500.0,19500.0,18500.0,16600.0,15600.0,16600.0,20500.0,33700.0,27600.0,19400.0,27300.0,23800.0,22050.0,21000.0,19950.0,17850.0,16800.0,17850.0,26500.0,26100.0,22050.0,19320.0,48500.0,33100.0,27000.0,24500.0,23300.0,20800.0,19600.0,20800.0,25700.0,26460.0,25700.0,22540.0,28050.0,27500.0,32700.0,28600.0,26200.0,24300.0,21400.0,21700.0,26800.0,27500.0,29500.0,23460.0,30300.0,27000.0,26250.0,25000.0,23750.0,21250.0,20000.0,21250.0,26250.0,27000.0,26250.0,23000.0,30250.0,29700.0,28900.0,27500.0,27400.0,31600.0,26000.0,25700.0,28900.0,29700.0,28900.0,29100.0,45300.0,37900.0,33600.0,30500.0,28975.0,25925.0,24400.0,25925.0,32025.0,32940.0,32025.0,28060.0,35750.0,35100.0,34125.0,32500.0,30875.0,27625.0,27300.0,27625.0,34125.0,35100.0,42700.0,31400.0,40700.0,37400.0,34650.0,33000.0,31350.0,28050.0,26400.0,28050.0,34650.0,35640.0,34650.0,30360.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[7350.0,7650.0,7600.0,7400.0,7040.0,6750.0,6680.0,6900.0,7980.0,9000.0,10000.0,8000.0,8400.0,8740.0,8670.0,8420.0,8010.0,7670.0,7580.0,7820.0,9030.0,11600.0,11500.0,9400.0,9470.0,9830.0,9740.0,9450.0,8980.0,8590.0,8470.0,8740.0,12600.0,13250.0,11650.0,9940.0,25500.0,18900.0,12800.0,10480.0,9950.0,9500.0,9370.0,9660.0,11120.0,11860.0,11730.0,10950.0,11580.0,12000.0,11870.0,11510.0,10910.0,12420.0,10270.0,10570.0,12170.0,12970.0,14820.0,11960.0,14640.0,13090.0,12940.0,12540.0,11880.0,11340.0,11160.0,11490.0,13220.0,14080.0,13910.0,12960.0,13700.0,14180.0,14010.0,13570.0,12850.0,13260.0,12060.0,12410.0,14270.0,15180.0,15000.0,13970.0,14760.0,15270.0,15080.0,14590.0,13820.0,13170.0,31000.0,21330.0,17320.0,16290.0,16090.0,14980.0,15820.0,16360.0,16150.0,15620.0,14780.0,14090.0,13860.0,14240.0,16370.0,17400.0,20180.0,15990.0,16880.0,17450.0,17210.0,16650.0,15750.0,15010.0,14750.0,15160.0,17410.0,18510.0,18270.0,17000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3350.0,3420.0,3650.0,3600.0,3300.0,2750.0,2600.0,2850.0,3550.0,5200.0,4450.0,2700.0,3600.0,3850.0,3950.0,4000.0,3600.0,3050.0,2700.0,3150.0,3850.0,7300.0,5600.0,2950.0,4150.0,4200.0,4500.0,4350.0,4050.0,3400.0,3100.0,3400.0,6400.0,8200.0,4900.0,3250.0,7400.0,4550.0,4750.0,4700.0,4400.0,3650.0,3350.0,3700.0,4650.0,4900.0,4550.0,3500.0,4800.0,4950.0,6800.0,6600.0,5750.0,4000.0,3650.0,4100.0,5100.0,5350.0,5000.0,5250.0,5200.0,5350.0,5700.0,5650.0,5200.0,4300.0,3950.0,4350.0,5550.0,5850.0,5450.0,4150.0,5800.0,6000.0,6400.0,6250.0,8100.0,4800.0,6900.0,6300.0,6200.0,6550.0,6050.0,4600.0,10500.0,6850.0,7300.0,7200.0,6650.0,5500.0,8400.0,7800.0,7100.0,7500.0,6950.0,5300.0,7300.0,7500.0,8000.0,7850.0,7300.0,6000.0,5500.0,9200.0,7750.0,8200.0,10400.0,5800.0,7900.0,8150.0,13100.0,10600.0,7950.0,6450.0,5950.0,6700.0,8500.0,8950.0,8200.0,6250.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2100.0,2550.0,2750.0,2600.0,2300.0,1700.0,1500.0,1650.0,2950.0,4400.0,2600.0,1900.0,2400.0,2850.0,3100.0,2900.0,2600.0,1950.0,1650.0,1850.0,3300.0,5600.0,4100.0,2500.0,2650.0,3200.0,4250.0,3250.0,2900.0,2150.0,1850.0,2050.0,3650.0,5250.0,3250.0,2350.0,9000.0,4700.0,3900.0,3700.0,3250.0,2450.0,2100.0,2300.0,4150.0,3950.0,3650.0,2650.0,3350.0,4050.0,4800.0,4700.0,4000.0,2900.0,2350.0,2600.0,4650.0,4400.0,4100.0,2950.0,3600.0,4350.0,4700.0,4450.0,3950.0,2950.0,2550.0,2800.0,5000.0,4750.0,4450.0,3200.0,3950.0,4750.0,5150.0,4850.0,4300.0,3250.0,2800.0,4600.0,10500.0,6800.0,4850.0,4550.0,5400.0,5200.0,5600.0,5300.0,4700.0,3500.0,4550.0,3350.0,6000.0,5700.0,5300.0,3800.0,4650.0,5600.0,6050.0,5700.0,5100.0,3800.0,4250.0,6500.0,6500.0,6150.0,8000.0,4150.0,4900.0,5950.0,12800.0,6050.0,5400.0,4050.0,3450.0,3800.0,6850.0,6500.0,6050.0,4350.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6184.0,6527.0,6903.0,6466.0,7112.0,7438.0,6821.0,7096.0,7782.0,9356.0,17640.0,24880.0,56300.0,21400.0,19700.0,15600.0,16200.0,16900.0,14500.0,14900.0,15800.0,28700.0,19400.0,17900.0,18600.0,16200.0,23900.0,15800.0,16400.0,16900.0,14400.0,14800.0,15400.0,16100.0,17200.0,17800.0,18100.0,15900.0,27600.0,16200.0,16700.0,17100.0,14700.0,15100.0,15800.0,16300.0,17100.0,18200.0,18700.0,19400.0,23800.0,26300.0,27100.0,24600.0,21200.0,21800.0,22400.0,23900.0,47800.0,36500.0,58200.0,31500.0,28700.0,24100.0,24800.0,24400.0,20900.0,21600.0,22200.0,23100.0,29500.0,30200.0,30800.0,35200.0,32100.0,25900.0,31400.0,33700.0,24500.0,25100.0,25800.0,26900.0,31500.0,29700.0,30900.0,27200.0,29500.0,25300.0,26400.0,27100.0,34800.0,27000.0,26700.0,27600.0,30800.0,31200.0,32400.0,28700.0,32900.0,28300.0,29200.0,30000.0,25400.0,33200.0,28600.0,30100.0,48300.0,38500.0,67500.0,42000.0,37100.0,32400.0,33500.0,34200.0,28700.0,29300.0,30100.0,31200.0,36500.0,34800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3800.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,4000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3300.0,4400.0,5000.0,5400.0,3800.0,4300.0,4700.0,5000.0,5000.0,4500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3600.0,4800.0,5800.0,5900.0,4400.0,5000.0,5300.0,5600.0,5600.0,4800.0,3800.0,3600.0,4000.0,5300.0,6000.0,6100.0,4400.0,5300.0,5700.0,6000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4000.0,3800.0,4200.0,5600.0,6400.0,6500.0,4700.0,5600.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,5200.0,4500.0,4200.0,4500.0,6000.0,6800.0,6800.0,5000.0,6000.0,6400.0,6800.0,6600.0,5600.0,4600.0,4400.0,4800.0,6400.0,7200.0,7200.0,5200.0,6300.0,6800.0,7200.0,7000.0,6000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5600.0,7200.0,8000.0,8000.0,6000.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7800.0,6600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5800.0,7500.0,8300.0,8300.0,6000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7900.0,7700.0,6500.0,5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,7400.0,8200.0,8300.0,6000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7900.0,7600.0,6400.0,5100.0,4900.0,5500.0,7300.0,8100.0,8100.0,5900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[19800.0,16600.0,14300.0,11500.0,11000.0,9600.0,9200.0,10800.0,20600.0,18100.0,14000.0,12200.0,24300.0,18200.0,14800.0,12400.0,11500.0,10300.0,9600.0,11900.0,21900.0,19500.0,15100.0,12700.0,29600.0,21200.0,17300.0,15200.0,13800.0,12600.0,11800.0,14500.0,26800.0,28200.0,18300.0,15600.0,30500.0,24800.0,22700.0,16800.0,15400.0,14200.0,12900.0,15300.0,31600.0,26700.0,20700.0,17500.0,38300.0,32800.0,29600.0,24600.0,20600.0,24300.0,20500.0,25100.0,50600.0,38300.0,28200.0,23700.0,44300.0,33900.0,26900.0,21100.0,18400.0,18100.0,15300.0,21200.0,42600.0,33100.0,25200.0,20200.0,30800.0,26400.0,25300.0,18700.0,17200.0,18500.0,14300.0,18100.0,39900.0,32400.0,23600.0,18900.0,32300.0,25200.0,24200.0,17900.0,16400.0,16900.0,13700.0,17200.0,36600.0,29600.0,22500.0,18100.0,30800.0,24000.0,23000.0,17000.0,15600.0,17500.0,13000.0,17200.0,36300.0,30700.0,21400.0,17200.0,30100.0,28100.0,22500.0,16600.0,15300.0,15700.0,12700.0,16800.0,34000.0,27500.0,20900.0,16800.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1450.0,1320.0,1480.0,1400.0,1550.0,1510.0,1600.0,1540.0,1680.0,1780.0,2100.0,1650.0,1700.0,1600.0,1750.0,1680.0,1800.0,1750.0,1820.0,1900.0,2050.0,2600.0,2900.0,2350.0,2200.0,2050.0,2180.0,2100.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2250.0,2450.0,2600.0,2500.0,2100.0,2000.0,1950.0,2100.0,2000.0,2150.0,2050.0,2100.0,2080.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,1900.0,2050.0,1980.0,2200.0,2350.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2450.0,2650.0,2850.0,3000.0,2750.0,2500.0,2350.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2450.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2550.0,2450.0,2650.0,2750.0,2900.0,2850.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,2900.0,2750.0,2600.0,2750.0,2650.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2650.0,2850.0,3000.0,2900.0,2600.0,2550.0,2450.0,2600.0,2500.0,2650.0,2550.0,2450.0,2500.0,2700.0,2850.0,2750.0,2450.0,2450.0,2350.0,2500.0,2400.0,2550.0,2450.0,2350.0,2400.0,2600.0,2750.0,2650.0,2350.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1365.0,1430.0,1495.0,1430.0,1300.0,1196.0,1105.0,1105.0,1430.0,1495.0,1430.0,1105.0,1418.0,1485.0,1553.0,1485.0,1350.0,1242.0,1148.0,1148.0,1485.0,1553.0,1485.0,1148.0,1680.0,1760.0,1840.0,1760.0,1600.0,1472.0,1360.0,1360.0,1760.0,1840.0,1760.0,1360.0,2400.0,2090.0,2185.0,2090.0,1900.0,1748.0,1615.0,1615.0,2090.0,2185.0,2090.0,1615.0,2205.0,2310.0,2415.0,2310.0,2100.0,1932.0,1785.0,1785.0,2310.0,2415.0,2310.0,1785.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2000.0,1840.0,1700.0,1700.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,1700.0,2415.0,2530.0,2645.0,2530.0,2300.0,2116.0,1955.0,1955.0,2530.0,2645.0,2530.0,1955.0,2520.0,2640.0,2760.0,2640.0,2400.0,2208.0,2040.0,2040.0,2640.0,2760.0,2640.0,2040.0,2625.0,2750.0,2875.0,2750.0,2500.0,2300.0,2125.0,2125.0,2750.0,2875.0,2750.0,2125.0,2835.0,2970.0,4500.0,3400.0,2700.0,2484.0,2295.0,2295.0,2970.0,3105.0,2970.0,2295.0]}},{"title":"Where the Wild Things Are","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Where the Wild Things Are\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[36425,29977,30838,26701,30696,24035,23923,22691,26400,35699,27562,28627,33409,31263,33869,29374,28849,33478,28894,35302,31829,36120,25766,21402,27500,24940,40206,33776,27940,26416,29693,31958,29370,35746,26298,24718,24128,22979,25229,21133,23129,20566,23737,23250,27736,27819,24381,19170,23565,18553,23315,32192,26155,21893,27832,25469,26889,31169,26120,30258,30500,25041,29073,26179,27893,21509,21527,25916,23699,27260,22268,19853,24594,23951,41943,26517,23379,19344,18904,22143,22771,29692,32699,26071,28010,32565,30050,26807,36868,44166,33535,26720,25164,32726,33583,40589,37969,34122,35470,26501,23863,23524,21441,37352,35892,31006,36489,31153,29228,33403,35740,24113,30655,28112,28034,28616,29632,23588,17803,16217],"flat_reference_value":16920.749342894982,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[34000.0,33000.0,40000.0,35000.0,32000.0,27000.0,25000.0,29000.0,36000.0,46000.0,38000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,38000.0,48000.0,39000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,29000.0,27000.0,31000.0,39000.0,49000.0,40000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,40000.0,51000.0,41000.0,36000.0,38000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,37000.0,46000.0,37000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,29000.0,27000.0,31000.0,39000.0,49000.0,40000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,29000.0,27000.0,31000.0,39000.0,50000.0,40000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,39000.0,36000.0,32000.0,29000.0,33000.0,42000.0,55000.0,43000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,38000.0,49000.0,39000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,25000.0,29000.0,37000.0,47000.0,38000.0,33000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[33400.0,34200.0,41500.0,37800.0,34100.0,26900.0,25400.0,26800.0,33600.0,42100.0,36200.0,31500.0,32800.0,33500.0,37900.0,35600.0,33400.0,26100.0,24800.0,26200.0,32900.0,41300.0,35400.0,30800.0,32100.0,32700.0,36800.0,34900.0,32600.0,25300.0,24100.0,25700.0,31800.0,40200.0,34500.0,29900.0,31400.0,31900.0,36100.0,34200.0,32100.0,24900.0,23800.0,25200.0,31500.0,43800.0,34900.0,30200.0,31800.0,32400.0,42600.0,48900.0,43200.0,30400.0,27600.0,28900.0,34200.0,41600.0,35100.0,30900.0,31600.0,32100.0,35800.0,33700.0,31200.0,24500.0,23200.0,24600.0,29800.0,37900.0,32400.0,28100.0,29300.0,29700.0,33400.0,31600.0,29500.0,23100.0,22000.0,23300.0,28400.0,36200.0,30800.0,26700.0,27900.0,28400.0,32500.0,35800.0,29400.0,22800.0,21600.0,22900.0,28100.0,36900.0,33400.0,26200.0,26800.0,27100.0,30200.0,28700.0,26900.0,20800.0,19700.0,20900.0,25600.0,33400.0,27900.0,24100.0,25100.0,25400.0,28600.0,27100.0,25300.0,19600.0,18700.0,19800.0,24300.0,31800.0,26500.0,22900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[58200.0,54100.0,60500.0,55400.0,51200.0,42300.0,39800.0,44700.0,52600.0,72400.0,56800.0,51900.0,54600.0,51200.0,57300.0,52100.0,48400.0,40100.0,37900.0,42800.0,49500.0,68200.0,53400.0,48900.0,51800.0,48500.0,54200.0,49800.0,46100.0,38400.0,36200.0,41300.0,47600.0,66500.0,51800.0,47500.0,48900.0,46200.0,51800.0,47400.0,43900.0,36500.0,34800.0,39400.0,46100.0,74200.0,50300.0,45800.0,47200.0,44100.0,45600.0,57800.0,48100.0,34200.0,33100.0,37900.0,43800.0,61200.0,46900.0,43800.0,45100.0,42300.0,48200.0,44600.0,41000.0,33400.0,31900.0,36200.0,42400.0,59400.0,45300.0,42700.0,43500.0,40800.0,46300.0,42500.0,39100.0,31500.0,30200.0,34800.0,40600.0,57100.0,43900.0,41200.0,42100.0,39400.0,45100.0,41300.0,38200.0,31800.0,29900.0,34200.0,41800.0,62500.0,58300.0,43900.0,41400.0,38600.0,44100.0,40500.0,37200.0,30400.0,29100.0,33500.0,39200.0,55400.0,42100.0,40300.0,40200.0,37500.0,42900.0,39300.0,36100.0,29600.0,28400.0,32600.0,38100.0,53800.0,41200.0,39100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[30500.0,31000.0,32500.0,31000.0,29500.0,27000.0,25500.0,26000.0,29000.0,33000.0,30500.0,26500.0,28500.0,29000.0,30000.0,28500.0,27500.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,27000.0,31000.0,28500.0,24500.0,26500.0,27000.0,28000.0,26500.0,25500.0,23500.0,22500.0,23000.0,25000.0,28500.0,26500.0,23000.0,25000.0,25500.0,26500.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21500.0,21500.0,23500.0,27000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23500.0,23500.0,27500.0,29000.0,26500.0,23000.0,22000.0,21500.0,23000.0,26000.0,24000.0,21500.0,22500.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19000.0,20500.0,23500.0,21500.0,19000.0,20500.0,20500.0,21500.0,20500.0,19500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,19000.0,22000.0,20000.0,17500.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,18000.0,21000.0,21500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,16500.0,19500.0,17500.0,15500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,18000.0,16500.0,14500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[52000.0,51000.0,53000.0,50000.0,49000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,45000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,44000.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,41000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,41000.0,46000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[58000.0,53000.0,56000.0,49000.0,52000.0,46000.0,44000.0,49000.0,58000.0,72000.0,55000.0,64000.0,55000.0,51000.0,53000.0,46000.0,49000.0,43000.0,41000.0,46000.0,55000.0,68000.0,51000.0,60000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,45000.0,48000.0,52000.0,40000.0,46000.0,54000.0,66000.0,53000.0,62000.0,51000.0,47000.0,49000.0,43000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,43000.0,51000.0,63000.0,48000.0,57000.0,49000.0,46000.0,63000.0,66000.0,61000.0,50000.0,41000.0,46000.0,54000.0,67000.0,50000.0,59000.0,47000.0,43000.0,45000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,47000.0,58000.0,44000.0,52000.0,43000.0,40000.0,41000.0,36000.0,42000.0,35000.0,33000.0,37000.0,44000.0,54000.0,40000.0,48000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,31000.0,29000.0,33000.0,39000.0,49000.0,36000.0,43000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,32000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,38000.0,47000.0,35000.0,41000.0,35000.0,32000.0,34000.0,30000.0,32000.0,28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,35000.0,43000.0,32000.0,38000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[29300.0,30500.0,31000.0,28900.0,26500.0,23300.0,21800.0,23500.0,31800.0,33200.0,30200.0,25700.0,28300.0,29800.0,29500.0,28000.0,25300.0,22600.0,21200.0,22700.0,30600.0,32000.0,28800.0,24800.0,27400.0,28600.0,28700.0,27100.0,24600.0,68000.0,23500.0,21900.0,29500.0,30900.0,27800.0,24100.0,26400.0,27600.0,27500.0,26200.0,23600.0,21000.0,19700.0,21100.0,28500.0,36000.0,27000.0,23100.0,25500.0,26800.0,34500.0,33000.0,27500.0,20400.0,19200.0,20300.0,27400.0,28500.0,26000.0,22400.0,24500.0,25700.0,25500.0,24300.0,22000.0,19500.0,18300.0,19500.0,26300.0,27400.0,24900.0,21400.0,23600.0,24700.0,24500.0,23400.0,21100.0,18800.0,17700.0,18700.0,25300.0,26300.0,23900.0,20600.0,22700.0,23700.0,23600.0,22400.0,20200.0,18100.0,16900.0,18000.0,24200.0,28000.0,48000.0,21000.0,21800.0,22700.0,22600.0,21500.0,19400.0,17300.0,16200.0,17200.0,23200.0,24100.0,22000.0,18900.0,20800.0,21700.0,21600.0,20600.0,18600.0,16500.0,15500.0,16400.0,22100.0,23000.0,21000.0,18000.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[41200.0,39800.0,43600.0,40900.0,36500.0,33800.0,32400.0,35900.0,45700.0,44100.0,39600.0,38200.0,39100.0,37600.0,41200.0,38400.0,34600.0,32000.0,30700.0,33800.0,43100.0,41900.0,37500.0,36300.0,37200.0,35600.0,39100.0,37900.0,33200.0,30600.0,29200.0,32200.0,41200.0,40400.0,35800.0,34600.0,36100.0,34500.0,37900.0,35300.0,31700.0,29300.0,28100.0,31000.0,39700.0,38700.0,34500.0,33600.0,35400.0,33900.0,39800.0,41700.0,37200.0,31900.0,29900.0,32300.0,39600.0,38600.0,34300.0,33500.0,34200.0,32700.0,36100.0,33700.0,30300.0,28000.0,26800.0,29400.0,37700.0,36800.0,32800.0,32000.0,32900.0,31500.0,34800.0,32500.0,29300.0,27100.0,26000.0,28400.0,36300.0,35500.0,31600.0,30900.0,32200.0,30800.0,34000.0,31800.0,28700.0,26600.0,25500.0,27900.0,35800.0,37300.0,34100.0,30300.0,30600.0,29300.0,32300.0,30200.0,27300.0,25300.0,24300.0,26600.0,34100.0,33300.0,29700.0,29000.0,29200.0,27900.0,30800.0,28800.0,26000.0,24100.0,23200.0,25300.0,32700.0,31900.0,28500.0,27800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[48760.0,47840.0,46000.0,46920.0,49680.0,46920.0,39560.0,40480.0,48760.0,52440.0,46000.0,47840.0,46640.0,45760.0,44000.0,44880.0,47520.0,44880.0,37840.0,38720.0,46640.0,50160.0,44000.0,45760.0,44520.0,43680.0,42000.0,42840.0,45360.0,42840.0,36120.0,36960.0,44520.0,47880.0,42000.0,43680.0,43460.0,42640.0,41000.0,41820.0,44280.0,41820.0,35260.0,36080.0,43460.0,68000.0,41000.0,42640.0,45580.0,44720.0,43000.0,43860.0,46440.0,43860.0,36980.0,37840.0,45580.0,49020.0,43000.0,44720.0,43460.0,42640.0,41000.0,41820.0,44280.0,41820.0,35260.0,36080.0,43460.0,46740.0,41000.0,42640.0,42400.0,41600.0,40000.0,40800.0,55000.0,45000.0,34400.0,35200.0,42400.0,45600.0,40000.0,41600.0,46640.0,45760.0,44000.0,65000.0,55000.0,44880.0,37840.0,38720.0,46640.0,60000.0,44000.0,45760.0,40280.0,39520.0,38000.0,38760.0,41040.0,38760.0,32680.0,33440.0,40280.0,43320.0,38000.0,39520.0,38160.0,37440.0,36000.0,36720.0,38880.0,36720.0,30960.0,31680.0,38160.0,41040.0,36000.0,37440.0],"meta/muse-ember":[19800.0,20100.0,20700.0,20300.0,21100.0,22500.0,21800.0,23100.0,22400.0,21400.0,19900.0,18900.0,20300.0,19800.0,21200.0,20700.0,21800.0,23100.0,22600.0,23900.0,22800.0,21900.0,20400.0,19400.0,20800.0,20300.0,21700.0,21200.0,22400.0,64200.0,24800.0,25300.0,24000.0,22600.0,21000.0,19900.0,21500.0,20800.0,22300.0,21700.0,22700.0,24000.0,23400.0,24700.0,23600.0,24200.0,21500.0,20500.0,22100.0,21400.0,26800.0,28600.0,26300.0,25600.0,24300.0,25600.0,24400.0,23100.0,21500.0,20900.0,22600.0,21900.0,23300.0,22800.0,23800.0,25300.0,28400.0,32100.0,25100.0,23900.0,22100.0,21300.0,23300.0,22600.0,24900.0,24100.0,25100.0,26500.0,25900.0,27300.0,26100.0,24900.0,23100.0,22100.0,23800.0,23100.0,24500.0,25300.0,26300.0,34800.0,28600.0,29600.0,36200.0,27600.0,24300.0,22900.0,24500.0,30200.0,25400.0,24800.0,25900.0,27300.0,26800.0,28200.0,27000.0,25700.0,23900.0,22800.0,25100.0,24400.0,25600.0,28700.0,26300.0,27700.0,27100.0,28500.0,27300.0,26100.0,24200.0,23100.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[62400.0,57600.0,66000.0,60000.0,57600.0,52800.0,44400.0,51600.0,68400.0,73200.0,63600.0,61200.0,65520.0,60480.0,69300.0,63000.0,60480.0,55440.0,46620.0,54180.0,71820.0,76860.0,66780.0,64260.0,68640.0,63360.0,72600.0,66000.0,63360.0,58080.0,48840.0,56760.0,75240.0,80520.0,69960.0,67320.0,72800.0,67200.0,77000.0,70000.0,67200.0,61600.0,51800.0,60200.0,79800.0,85400.0,74200.0,71400.0,79040.0,72960.0,90288.0,87400.0,80256.0,66880.0,56240.0,65360.0,86640.0,92720.0,80560.0,77520.0,87360.0,80640.0,92400.0,84000.0,80640.0,73920.0,62160.0,72240.0,95760.0,102480.0,89040.0,85680.0,79040.0,72960.0,83600.0,76000.0,72960.0,66880.0,56240.0,65360.0,86640.0,92720.0,80560.0,77520.0,72842.0,67238.0,79288.0,70720.0,67238.0,61635.0,51830.0,61989.0,91474.0,101211.0,79288.0,72828.0,60320.0,55680.0,63800.0,58000.0,55680.0,51040.0,42920.0,49880.0,66120.0,81374.0,61480.0,59160.0,52000.0,48000.0,55000.0,50000.0,48000.0,44000.0,37000.0,43000.0,57000.0,61000.0,53000.0,51000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[11000.0,11500.0,12300.0,12000.0,11300.0,10200.0,9300.0,10500.0,12700.0,42000.0,22000.0,15000.0,11600.0,12300.0,13100.0,12800.0,12000.0,10900.0,12000.0,11200.0,13500.0,15700.0,13200.0,11700.0,12000.0,12800.0,13600.0,13400.0,12400.0,11200.0,10200.0,11700.0,14100.0,16700.0,13800.0,12300.0,12400.0,13200.0,14100.0,13900.0,12900.0,18000.0,10700.0,12200.0,14600.0,16600.0,14400.0,12800.0,13200.0,14000.0,16200.0,15700.0,13800.0,12500.0,11300.0,12900.0,15500.0,36000.0,22000.0,16000.0,13500.0,14400.0,15400.0,15100.0,14100.0,12800.0,11600.0,13300.0,15900.0,18100.0,15600.0,13900.0,12800.0,13600.0,14500.0,14300.0,13300.0,12000.0,10900.0,12400.0,14900.0,17000.0,14700.0,13100.0,12700.0,13600.0,27000.0,21000.0,16500.0,12000.0,10900.0,12400.0,14900.0,23000.0,14700.0,13200.0,12100.0,12900.0,13700.0,13500.0,14800.0,11400.0,10400.0,11800.0,13900.0,16200.0,15600.0,12600.0,11900.0,12700.0,15000.0,13300.0,12400.0,11300.0,10200.0,11600.0,13900.0,16000.0,13800.0,12400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[10500.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,8200.0,8000.0,8600.0,9800.0,11500.0,10200.0,10800.0,10300.0,10000.0,9900.0,9600.0,9300.0,8000.0,7800.0,8400.0,9500.0,11200.0,10000.0,10500.0,10400.0,9800.0,9700.0,9400.0,9200.0,7900.0,7700.0,8200.0,9300.0,10800.0,9800.0,10200.0,9900.0,9600.0,9500.0,9200.0,8900.0,7600.0,7500.0,8000.0,9000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9900.0,9600.0,9300.0,9800.0,10200.0,9200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8800.0,10000.0,9200.0,9600.0,9200.0,8900.0,8800.0,8600.0,8300.0,7200.0,7100.0,7500.0,8300.0,9600.0,8700.0,9000.0,8700.0,8400.0,8300.0,8100.0,8000.0,6900.0,6800.0,7200.0,8000.0,9200.0,8400.0,8700.0,8500.0,8200.0,8100.0,7900.0,8300.0,6800.0,6700.0,7100.0,7900.0,9000.0,8200.0,8500.0,8200.0,7900.0,7800.0,7600.0,7400.0,6500.0,6400.0,6800.0,7500.0,8700.0,7900.0,8200.0,7900.0,7600.0,7500.0,7300.0,7100.0,6300.0,6200.0,6600.0,7200.0,8400.0,7600.0,7900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[148000.0,101000.0,111000.0,106000.0,103000.0,129000.0,141000.0,144000.0,147000.0,162000.0,131000.0,108000.0,162000.0,112000.0,120000.0,115000.0,110000.0,138000.0,152000.0,155000.0,152000.0,172000.0,138000.0,114000.0,170000.0,121000.0,131000.0,124000.0,122000.0,152000.0,168000.0,165000.0,167000.0,185000.0,151000.0,124000.0,186000.0,129000.0,138000.0,132000.0,130000.0,161000.0,176000.0,174000.0,208000.0,245000.0,181000.0,136000.0,207000.0,147000.0,193000.0,221000.0,229000.0,268000.0,247000.0,229000.0,259000.0,266000.0,202000.0,151000.0,216000.0,141000.0,158000.0,179000.0,186000.0,209000.0,201000.0,193000.0,220000.0,233000.0,184000.0,152000.0,192000.0,126000.0,145000.0,132000.0,130000.0,160000.0,176000.0,172000.0,184000.0,218000.0,169000.0,138000.0,201000.0,136000.0,153000.0,138000.0,137000.0,178000.0,185000.0,184000.0,236000.0,329000.0,196000.0,154000.0,180000.0,124000.0,131000.0,126000.0,125000.0,163000.0,169000.0,167000.0,203000.0,215000.0,171000.0,133000.0,152000.0,103000.0,111000.0,105000.0,104000.0,128000.0,148000.0,146000.0,148000.0,172000.0,130000.0,106000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[16800.0,15900.0,17400.0,17000.0,16500.0,15800.0,15100.0,16400.0,23100.0,46100.0,24800.0,19000.0,17200.0,16300.0,17800.0,17200.0,16900.0,16100.0,15400.0,16900.0,23900.0,48200.0,25700.0,19500.0,17600.0,16600.0,18100.0,17500.0,17100.0,16300.0,15600.0,17200.0,24500.0,49600.0,26300.0,19800.0,17400.0,16400.0,17900.0,17300.0,16800.0,15900.0,15300.0,16900.0,24100.0,47800.0,25400.0,19100.0,18800.0,18500.0,21300.0,22600.0,20400.0,19000.0,17700.0,19500.0,27800.0,53500.0,29100.0,22100.0,19100.0,18000.0,19300.0,18400.0,17500.0,16500.0,15800.0,17500.0,25200.0,48900.0,26700.0,20300.0,18000.0,17000.0,18200.0,17500.0,16800.0,15900.0,15100.0,16900.0,24600.0,47700.0,26000.0,19800.0,18800.0,17800.0,19300.0,18700.0,18100.0,17200.0,16400.0,18400.0,27200.0,51500.0,30100.0,22400.0,18300.0,17300.0,18500.0,17800.0,17100.0,16100.0,15400.0,17200.0,24900.0,48100.0,26100.0,19800.0,17900.0,16900.0,18100.0,17400.0,16700.0,15700.0,15000.0,16800.0,24300.0,46900.0,25400.0,19300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4784.0,4680.0,5096.0,4940.0,4940.0,4680.0,4420.0,4680.0,5200.0,6500.0,5460.0,4420.0,4508.0,4410.0,4802.0,4655.0,4655.0,4410.0,4165.0,4410.0,4900.0,6125.0,5145.0,4165.0,4232.0,4140.0,4508.0,4370.0,4370.0,4140.0,3910.0,4140.0,4600.0,5750.0,4830.0,3910.0,4048.0,3960.0,4312.0,4180.0,4180.0,3960.0,3740.0,3960.0,4400.0,6160.0,4620.0,3740.0,4416.0,4320.0,6000.0,6240.0,5760.0,4320.0,4080.0,4320.0,4800.0,6000.0,5040.0,4080.0,3680.0,3600.0,3920.0,3800.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,4000.0,5000.0,4200.0,3400.0,3312.0,3240.0,3528.0,3420.0,3420.0,3240.0,3060.0,3240.0,3600.0,4500.0,3780.0,3060.0,3036.0,2970.0,3234.0,3135.0,3135.0,2970.0,2805.0,2970.0,3300.0,4125.0,3465.0,2805.0,2760.0,2700.0,2940.0,2850.0,2850.0,2700.0,2550.0,2700.0,3000.0,3750.0,3150.0,2550.0,2484.0,2430.0,2646.0,2565.0,2565.0,2430.0,2295.0,2430.0,2700.0,3375.0,2835.0,2295.0]}},{"title":"Catholic Encyclopedia","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Catholic Encyclopedia\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[7560,7650,7627,6602,6717,5814,5866,5975,6310,6688,6966,7080,6930,6446,7333,6993,6533,5907,5470,5433,5808,6551,6632,6197,6309,6333,7434,6385,6159,5300,5009,5425,5257,6273,5813,6018,5976,5668,5899,6393,5613,5160,5535,5385,6288,8526,6892,9354,7713,5712,5802,6885,5166,3630,3453,3796,3702,4220,3971,4201,3964,4163,4876,4876,3843,3393,3109,3713,3377,3551,3948,3844,3521,3851,3903,3825,3399,3228,3084,3333,3307,3661,3570,3895,5103,3866,4560,4571,4824,3424,3729,3617,3932,4332,4288,4754,4497,4151,4825,4215,3950,3391,3342,3695,3700,3957,3931,4181,4108,3861,4100,4770,5155,3597,2907,3455,3435,3422,3312,3251],"flat_reference_value":17072.592904009445,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[3100.0,2950.0,3300.0,3200.0,3150.0,2750.0,2650.0,2750.0,3050.0,3350.0,3250.0,2950.0,3200.0,3050.0,3400.0,3300.0,3250.0,2850.0,2700.0,2850.0,3150.0,3450.0,3350.0,3000.0,3300.0,3100.0,3450.0,3400.0,3300.0,2950.0,2800.0,2950.0,3250.0,3550.0,3450.0,3100.0,3400.0,3200.0,3550.0,3500.0,3400.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3300.0,3650.0,3500.0,3150.0,3450.0,3250.0,3700.0,3950.0,3750.0,3300.0,3150.0,3250.0,3550.0,3900.0,3750.0,3400.0,3650.0,3450.0,3850.0,3700.0,3550.0,3150.0,3000.0,3100.0,3450.0,3800.0,3650.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3700.0,3550.0,3450.0,3050.0,2900.0,3050.0,3350.0,3700.0,3550.0,3200.0,3450.0,3250.0,3650.0,3500.0,3350.0,3000.0,2850.0,2950.0,3250.0,3600.0,3450.0,3100.0,3350.0,3200.0,3550.0,3400.0,3300.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3200.0,3500.0,3350.0,3050.0,3300.0,3100.0,3450.0,3500.0,3400.0,2900.0,2750.0,2850.0,3150.0,3450.0,3300.0,3000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[12450.0,11620.0,13180.0,12340.0,11790.0,10350.0,10580.0,10720.0,11460.0,12510.0,12190.0,11240.0,12310.0,11280.0,12890.0,12760.0,11650.0,10210.0,10490.0,10630.0,11380.0,12420.0,12080.0,11150.0,12190.0,11140.0,12940.0,12480.0,11520.0,10120.0,10380.0,10590.0,11290.0,12310.0,11960.0,11040.0,12080.0,11050.0,12560.0,12820.0,11490.0,10080.0,10310.0,10470.0,11210.0,12180.0,11840.0,10960.0,11950.0,11290.0,12740.0,13860.0,13120.0,11450.0,11280.0,11340.0,11790.0,12640.0,12250.0,11480.0,12340.0,11180.0,12490.0,12380.0,11360.0,9940.0,10150.0,10290.0,10890.0,11760.0,11420.0,10650.0,11580.0,10460.0,11790.0,11920.0,10840.0,9520.0,9740.0,9880.0,10450.0,11280.0,10960.0,10540.0,11890.0,10120.0,11340.0,11480.0,10390.0,9120.0,9350.0,9460.0,9980.0,10740.0,10420.0,9680.0,10450.0,9780.0,11120.0,10640.0,9890.0,8690.0,8870.0,9010.0,9520.0,10260.0,9940.0,9250.0,9980.0,9140.0,10480.0,13420.0,13890.0,9240.0,8760.0,8840.0,9310.0,9960.0,9680.0,9040.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[11200.0,10500.0,11800.0,11400.0,10900.0,8800.0,8500.0,9100.0,10400.0,11300.0,11600.0,9600.0,10800.0,10100.0,11400.0,11100.0,10500.0,8500.0,8200.0,8800.0,9900.0,10900.0,11200.0,9200.0,10200.0,9600.0,10800.0,10400.0,9900.0,8100.0,7800.0,8400.0,9500.0,10400.0,10700.0,8800.0,9800.0,9200.0,10400.0,10100.0,9500.0,7800.0,7500.0,8100.0,9100.0,10000.0,10300.0,8400.0,9400.0,9100.0,11200.0,12100.0,11400.0,8900.0,8400.0,8800.0,9600.0,10500.0,10800.0,8900.0,9600.0,8900.0,10200.0,9800.0,9200.0,7600.0,7300.0,7800.0,8800.0,9700.0,10000.0,8100.0,9100.0,8500.0,9700.0,9300.0,8800.0,7200.0,6900.0,7500.0,8400.0,9200.0,9500.0,7800.0,8800.0,8100.0,9300.0,8900.0,8400.0,6900.0,6600.0,7100.0,8000.0,8800.0,9100.0,7400.0,8400.0,7800.0,8900.0,8600.0,8100.0,6600.0,6300.0,6800.0,7700.0,8400.0,8700.0,7100.0,8100.0,7500.0,8600.0,8300.0,7800.0,6400.0,6100.0,6600.0,7400.0,8100.0,8400.0,6800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[11200.0,11000.0,11400.0,10900.0,10200.0,9300.0,9000.0,9100.0,9900.0,10600.0,10500.0,9400.0,10400.0,10600.0,10900.0,10300.0,9600.0,8800.0,8500.0,8600.0,9300.0,10000.0,9900.0,8800.0,9600.0,9500.0,9800.0,9300.0,8700.0,8000.0,7800.0,8100.0,8600.0,9200.0,9100.0,8100.0,8900.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,8200.0,7500.0,7400.0,7500.0,8000.0,8600.0,8500.0,7600.0,8300.0,8200.0,8900.0,9400.0,8800.0,7800.0,7500.0,7400.0,7800.0,8200.0,8100.0,7400.0,7900.0,7700.0,7900.0,7600.0,7100.0,6600.0,6400.0,6500.0,6900.0,7300.0,7300.0,6600.0,7200.0,7000.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,6000.0,5900.0,6000.0,6400.0,6800.0,6700.0,6600.0,7000.0,6500.0,6700.0,6400.0,6000.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5900.0,6300.0,6200.0,5600.0,6100.0,6000.0,6200.0,5900.0,5600.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,5500.0,5800.0,5700.0,5200.0,5700.0,5900.0,6000.0,6600.0,7000.0,5300.0,5000.0,5000.0,5300.0,5600.0,5500.0,5000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9800.0,9500.0,9900.0,9400.0,9000.0,8200.0,8000.0,8200.0,8800.0,9200.0,9100.0,8400.0,9200.0,8800.0,9300.0,8900.0,8600.0,7800.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,8700.0,8600.0,7900.0,8700.0,8200.0,8700.0,8300.0,8100.0,7400.0,7300.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7400.0,8100.0,7600.0,8100.0,7900.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,7000.0,7300.0,7700.0,7500.0,7000.0,7700.0,7300.0,7800.0,8300.0,8100.0,7300.0,7100.0,7100.0,7200.0,7500.0,7400.0,7000.0,7600.0,7100.0,7500.0,7100.0,6900.0,6400.0,6300.0,6400.0,6600.0,6900.0,6800.0,6400.0,6900.0,6500.0,6900.0,6700.0,6500.0,6000.0,5900.0,6000.0,6200.0,6500.0,6400.0,6200.0,6800.0,6300.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0,5900.0,5800.0,5900.0,6100.0,6400.0,6300.0,5900.0,6400.0,6100.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,5700.0,5600.0,5700.0,5900.0,6200.0,6100.0,5900.0,6400.0,6200.0,6600.0,8200.0,8800.0,6500.0,6100.0,6100.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4000.0,4400.0,4700.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,3700.0,3700.0,4300.0,4100.0,4100.0,4500.0,4100.0,4300.0,4700.0,4500.0,5000.0,4300.0,3800.0,3800.0,4100.0,4500.0,4200.0,4700.0,4200.0,4400.0,4700.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,3900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4300.0,4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,4900.0,6500.0,5200.0,4600.0,4100.0,4100.0,4300.0,4700.0,4400.0,4800.0,4400.0,4600.0,5800.0,5600.0,4800.0,4400.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4900.0,4500.0,4600.0,5000.0,5000.0,4700.0,4400.0,4000.0,4000.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,5100.0,5100.0,4700.0,4400.0,4000.0,4100.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,5500.0,7000.0,4900.0,5300.0,5400.0,4900.0,4500.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,5100.0,4700.0,4800.0,5200.0,5300.0,4900.0,4600.0,4200.0,5200.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,5100.0,4700.0,5000.0,5600.0,9500.0,9000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4800.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[8873.0,8694.0,9215.0,9342.0,8768.0,7814.0,7489.0,7682.0,8711.0,8927.0,8483.0,8512.0,8634.0,8341.0,8892.0,9036.0,8422.0,7558.0,7204.0,7395.0,8381.0,8597.0,8193.0,8218.0,8175.0,7971.0,8412.0,8594.0,8021.0,7189.0,6852.0,7033.0,7942.0,8206.0,7784.0,7815.0,7891.0,7638.0,8117.0,8273.0,7712.0,6914.0,6587.0,6764.0,7668.0,7862.0,7489.0,7523.0,7994.0,7741.0,10274.0,10483.0,9785.0,7005.0,6674.0,6857.0,7769.0,7996.0,7618.0,7634.0,7471.0,7228.0,7683.0,7826.0,7301.0,6546.0,6235.0,6403.0,7257.0,7442.0,7087.0,7119.0,7051.0,6821.0,7253.0,7395.0,6888.0,6178.0,5883.0,6044.0,6849.0,7022.0,6687.0,7128.0,7824.0,6413.0,6819.0,6948.0,6476.0,5808.0,5531.0,5683.0,6441.0,6602.0,6287.0,6315.0,6316.0,6107.0,6495.0,6618.0,6167.0,5533.0,5267.0,5413.0,6135.0,6288.0,5989.0,6017.0,6106.0,5903.0,6279.0,14582.0,10974.0,5349.0,5091.0,5234.0,5931.0,6078.0,5789.0,5814.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[21200.0,19600.0,21800.0,21400.0,19800.0,18300.0,18700.0,18100.0,20400.0,21700.0,21100.0,23200.0,21600.0,20100.0,21300.0,22400.0,20300.0,18800.0,18700.0,18600.0,20700.0,22800.0,21700.0,23800.0,21700.0,20600.0,21800.0,21600.0,22100.0,19700.0,19100.0,18700.0,20700.0,21800.0,21600.0,23600.0,21600.0,20400.0,21700.0,27100.0,21800.0,19700.0,19500.0,19100.0,21100.0,22100.0,21600.0,24100.0,21900.0,20900.0,25400.0,26100.0,22600.0,21000.0,20400.0,19900.0,21400.0,22600.0,22400.0,24800.0,22300.0,21200.0,22900.0,23600.0,21600.0,19900.0,19500.0,19400.0,21500.0,22600.0,22400.0,24700.0,21900.0,20800.0,22300.0,23100.0,21400.0,19900.0,19400.0,19300.0,21400.0,22500.0,22300.0,24400.0,28600.0,22800.0,23900.0,23400.0,21400.0,21100.0,19800.0,19400.0,21300.0,23100.0,22400.0,24400.0,21800.0,21300.0,22900.0,22400.0,21300.0,20300.0,19800.0,19800.0,21300.0,23400.0,25100.0,25400.0,22600.0,23600.0,27100.0,38200.0,42300.0,27200.0,21500.0,20400.0,21900.0,23300.0,23200.0,25400.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2910.0,2860.0,2940.0,2880.0,2790.0,2600.0,2550.0,2600.0,2830.0,3000.0,3050.0,2770.0,3020.0,2960.0,3040.0,2990.0,2890.0,2700.0,2640.0,2700.0,2930.0,3100.0,3160.0,2870.0,3120.0,3060.0,3150.0,3090.0,3000.0,2790.0,2730.0,2790.0,3030.0,3210.0,3270.0,2970.0,3220.0,3160.0,3260.0,3190.0,3090.0,2880.0,2820.0,2880.0,3130.0,3320.0,3380.0,3070.0,3430.0,3370.0,3460.0,3400.0,3300.0,3070.0,3000.0,3070.0,3330.0,3530.0,3600.0,3270.0,3540.0,3470.0,3570.0,3500.0,3400.0,3160.0,3090.0,3160.0,3430.0,3640.0,3710.0,3370.0,3480.0,3420.0,3520.0,3450.0,3350.0,3120.0,3050.0,3120.0,3380.0,3580.0,3650.0,3320.0,3540.0,3470.0,3570.0,3500.0,3400.0,3160.0,3090.0,3160.0,3430.0,3640.0,3710.0,3370.0,3430.0,3370.0,3460.0,3400.0,3300.0,3070.0,3000.0,3070.0,3330.0,3530.0,3600.0,3270.0,3330.0,3260.0,3360.0,3300.0,3200.0,2980.0,2910.0,2980.0,3230.0,3420.0,3490.0,3170.0],"meta/muse-ember":[5000.0,5460.0,5950.0,5700.0,5250.0,4400.0,5200.0,4810.0,5240.0,5570.0,5300.0,5140.0,4900.0,4950.0,5400.0,5820.0,5200.0,4540.0,4170.0,4450.0,5410.0,5090.0,5200.0,4520.0,4840.0,4940.0,5020.0,5530.0,4940.0,4140.0,4250.0,4230.0,5090.0,4990.0,5140.0,4610.0,4800.0,5410.0,5560.0,6730.0,5050.0,4320.0,4340.0,4630.0,5200.0,5620.0,5050.0,4950.0,5440.0,5770.0,6410.0,6770.0,5390.0,4690.0,4870.0,4990.0,6000.0,5710.0,5720.0,5540.0,5520.0,6040.0,6200.0,6690.0,5470.0,5220.0,4700.0,5120.0,6100.0,5850.0,6100.0,5470.0,5350.0,5400.0,6010.0,5860.0,5800.0,5150.0,4790.0,4710.0,5620.0,5780.0,5290.0,5190.0,5800.0,5250.0,5290.0,5650.0,4850.0,4270.0,4300.0,4490.0,5040.0,5250.0,5000.0,4900.0,4460.0,4640.0,5060.0,5040.0,4590.0,3810.0,3950.0,4130.0,4730.0,4870.0,4550.0,4370.0,4030.0,4370.0,5130.0,6170.0,5560.0,3920.0,3540.0,3740.0,4500.0,4410.0,4370.0,4110.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[60000.0,65500.0,72500.0,63000.0,62400.0,57600.0,54600.0,55800.0,64800.0,63000.0,64200.0,76800.0,59000.0,60800.0,65700.0,71200.0,61400.0,56600.0,53700.0,54900.0,63700.0,62000.0,63100.0,75500.0,58000.0,59700.0,64600.0,70000.0,60300.0,55700.0,52800.0,53900.0,62600.0,60900.0,62100.0,74200.0,57500.0,59200.0,64000.0,73600.0,59800.0,55200.0,52300.0,53500.0,62100.0,60400.0,61500.0,73600.0,56500.0,58200.0,78600.0,88700.0,70500.0,58600.0,54400.0,52500.0,61000.0,59300.0,60500.0,72300.0,58300.0,60100.0,64900.0,67000.0,57700.0,53300.0,50500.0,51600.0,59900.0,58300.0,59400.0,71000.0,54500.0,56100.0,60700.0,65800.0,56700.0,52300.0,49600.0,50700.0,58900.0,57200.0,58300.0,69800.0,53500.0,55100.0,59500.0,64600.0,55600.0,51400.0,48700.0,49700.0,57800.0,56200.0,57200.0,68500.0,52500.0,57300.0,63400.0,55100.0,54600.0,50400.0,47800.0,48800.0,56700.0,55100.0,56200.0,67200.0,51500.0,61000.0,65900.0,96400.0,72300.0,49400.0,46900.0,47900.0,55600.0,54100.0,55100.0,65900.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[251000.0,225000.0,244000.0,249000.0,249000.0,237000.0,225000.0,245000.0,249000.0,251000.0,260000.0,278000.0,249000.0,215000.0,235000.0,244000.0,238000.0,226000.0,207000.0,229000.0,239000.0,243000.0,250000.0,264000.0,240000.0,204000.0,231000.0,225000.0,227000.0,214000.0,195000.0,217000.0,225000.0,229000.0,235000.0,248000.0,232000.0,195000.0,215000.0,226000.0,218000.0,206000.0,187000.0,207000.0,216000.0,221000.0,227000.0,241000.0,230000.0,190000.0,211000.0,190000.0,195000.0,201000.0,186000.0,193000.0,202000.0,210000.0,214000.0,225000.0,225000.0,188000.0,205000.0,207000.0,201000.0,190000.0,174000.0,187000.0,196000.0,200000.0,205000.0,215000.0,221000.0,191000.0,195000.0,199000.0,197000.0,188000.0,173000.0,185000.0,192000.0,205000.0,202000.0,214000.0,230000.0,192000.0,199000.0,195000.0,190000.0,182000.0,167000.0,180000.0,188000.0,194000.0,199000.0,208000.0,217000.0,181000.0,202000.0,190000.0,189000.0,180000.0,164000.0,177000.0,185000.0,190000.0,196000.0,205000.0,211000.0,178000.0,195000.0,322000.0,378000.0,224000.0,183000.0,190000.0,197000.0,201000.0,207000.0,214000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1750.0,1800.0,1800.0,1750.0,1650.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1600.0,1750.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1650.0,1750.0,1750.0,1550.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1650.0,1550.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1500.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1550.0,1650.0,1650.0,1450.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1650.0,1500.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1400.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1450.0,1550.0,1550.0,1350.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1350.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1300.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1350.0,1450.0,1450.0,1250.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1350.0,1250.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1200.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1600.0,1650.0,1150.0,1000.0,1050.0,1250.0,1350.0,1350.0,1150.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[23520.0,21000.0,22260.0,20790.0,19950.0,16800.0,14700.0,18480.0,26880.0,25620.0,22680.0,19320.0,24640.0,22000.0,23320.0,21780.0,20900.0,17600.0,15400.0,19360.0,28160.0,33550.0,23760.0,20240.0,25760.0,23000.0,24380.0,22770.0,21850.0,18400.0,16100.0,25300.0,29440.0,28060.0,24840.0,21160.0,26880.0,24000.0,25440.0,23760.0,22800.0,19200.0,16800.0,21120.0,30720.0,29280.0,25920.0,22080.0,28000.0,25000.0,30480.0,29700.0,26600.0,20000.0,17500.0,22000.0,32000.0,30500.0,27000.0,23000.0,27440.0,24500.0,25970.0,24260.0,23280.0,19600.0,27440.0,22640.0,31360.0,29890.0,26460.0,22540.0,25200.0,22500.0,23850.0,22280.0,21380.0,18000.0,15750.0,19800.0,28800.0,27450.0,24300.0,20700.0,24080.0,21500.0,22790.0,21290.0,20430.0,17200.0,15050.0,18920.0,27520.0,26230.0,23220.0,19780.0,22960.0,20500.0,21730.0,20300.0,19480.0,16400.0,14350.0,18040.0,26240.0,25010.0,22140.0,20750.0,22340.0,19000.0,20140.0,18800.0,18050.0,15200.0,13300.0,16720.0,24320.0,23180.0,20520.0,18350.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2200.0,2050.0,2300.0,2250.0,2180.0,2100.0,1980.0,2020.0,2090.0,2180.0,2150.0,2050.0,2280.0,2110.0,2380.0,2320.0,2210.0,2150.0,2030.0,2080.0,2160.0,2240.0,2190.0,2100.0,2310.0,2150.0,2430.0,2360.0,2240.0,2170.0,2040.0,2090.0,2150.0,2200.0,2160.0,2070.0,2250.0,2070.0,2350.0,2290.0,2160.0,2100.0,1970.0,2010.0,2070.0,2140.0,2100.0,2010.0,2190.0,2050.0,2320.0,2420.0,2340.0,2220.0,2070.0,2110.0,2170.0,2220.0,2200.0,2100.0,2220.0,2050.0,2290.0,2230.0,2130.0,2070.0,1940.0,1980.0,2040.0,2100.0,2080.0,1990.0,2170.0,2000.0,2250.0,2190.0,2090.0,2040.0,1910.0,1950.0,2010.0,2070.0,2040.0,2370.0,2110.0,1950.0,2200.0,2150.0,2040.0,1980.0,1870.0,1900.0,1960.0,2020.0,1990.0,1920.0,2050.0,1910.0,2160.0,2110.0,2000.0,1940.0,1820.0,1860.0,1910.0,1970.0,1940.0,1870.0,2010.0,1880.0,2190.0,3020.0,2610.0,2180.0,1940.0,1980.0,2040.0,2110.0,2070.0,1980.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[17850.0,18360.0,18700.0,17850.0,17340.0,15640.0,14450.0,14450.0,17850.0,18700.0,18360.0,15300.0,17010.0,17496.0,17820.0,17010.0,16524.0,14904.0,13770.0,13770.0,17010.0,17820.0,17496.0,14580.0,16170.0,16632.0,16940.0,16170.0,15708.0,14168.0,13090.0,13090.0,16170.0,16940.0,16632.0,13860.0,15330.0,15768.0,16060.0,15330.0,14892.0,13432.0,12410.0,12410.0,15330.0,16060.0,15768.0,13140.0,15330.0,15768.0,17666.0,16863.0,16381.0,13432.0,12410.0,12410.0,15330.0,16060.0,15768.0,13140.0,14280.0,14688.0,14960.0,14280.0,13872.0,12512.0,11560.0,11560.0,14280.0,14960.0,14688.0,12240.0,13440.0,13824.0,14080.0,13440.0,13056.0,11776.0,10880.0,10880.0,13440.0,14080.0,13824.0,11520.0,12705.0,13068.0,13310.0,12705.0,12342.0,11132.0,10285.0,10285.0,12705.0,13310.0,13068.0,10890.0,12075.0,12420.0,12650.0,12075.0,11730.0,10580.0,9775.0,9775.0,12075.0,12650.0,12420.0,10350.0,11550.0,11880.0,12100.0,11550.0,11800.0,10120.0,9350.0,9350.0,11550.0,12100.0,11880.0,9900.0]}},{"title":"Public holidays in Switzerland","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Public holidays in Switzerland\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5787,4020,5936,5167,9893,2409,2635,4515,3853,4376,3684,3800,3725,2290,3364,8099,7255,4710,2649,4169,3915,4448,3765,3260,3408,2541,3788,5777,8979,2399,2400,4035,3542,4571,3162,3287,2924,1934,2714,5459,6130,5267,2749,4348,3542,3898,3706,3927,4737,2773,2402,6358,9155,4928,1865,2634,3264,2041,2570,4281,3271,2806,5112,5747,10515,3391,1847,2104,2882,3791,3694,3774,3739,2477,2368,4555,5520,5163,2156,3711,3291,5403,4380,4350,5333,3783,5110,10737,17428,7081,5520,9269,6910,9406,7830,10321,9779,7710,14660,17673,31310,5560,7191,11535,9531,10615,8067,10282,9172,5705,8657,17495,17583,14605,5755,9335,7222,5537,5684,8562],"flat_reference_value":17070.262022517996,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6900.0,4200.0,5100.0,4700.0,5700.0,4100.0,4400.0,5300.0,3900.0,4200.0,4700.0,6100.0,7200.0,4300.0,4600.0,5500.0,5900.0,4300.0,4500.0,5500.0,4100.0,4300.0,4900.0,6300.0,7500.0,4500.0,5100.0,5400.0,6200.0,4400.0,4700.0,5700.0,4200.0,4500.0,5100.0,6500.0,7800.0,4600.0,4900.0,5900.0,6300.0,4600.0,4900.0,5900.0,4300.0,4600.0,5200.0,6800.0,7900.0,4700.0,3900.0,4100.0,4700.0,3400.0,3700.0,4500.0,3500.0,3700.0,4200.0,5600.0,6900.0,3900.0,4400.0,5000.0,5700.0,4100.0,4500.0,5500.0,4100.0,4400.0,5000.0,6500.0,7600.0,4500.0,5000.0,6000.0,6700.0,4900.0,5200.0,6400.0,4700.0,5000.0,5700.0,7400.0,8500.0,4800.0,5400.0,6400.0,7100.0,5100.0,5500.0,6700.0,4900.0,5300.0,6000.0,7800.0,8900.0,5000.0,6100.0,6100.0,7500.0,5300.0,5700.0,6900.0,5100.0,5500.0,6200.0,8000.0,8500.0,4700.0,5200.0,6300.0,6900.0,5000.0,5300.0,6400.0,4700.0,5100.0,5700.0,7300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[11800.0,6400.0,8900.0,7400.0,11200.0,7100.0,7300.0,10400.0,7200.0,6800.0,8100.0,9600.0,12600.0,6700.0,7600.0,9400.0,11500.0,8600.0,7600.0,10900.0,7500.0,7100.0,8500.0,10100.0,13400.0,7000.0,9200.0,8300.0,12400.0,7700.0,8000.0,11400.0,7800.0,7400.0,8900.0,10600.0,14100.0,7300.0,8100.0,10200.0,11800.0,9800.0,8300.0,11900.0,8100.0,7700.0,9200.0,11100.0,14500.0,7400.0,6800.0,8100.0,9900.0,7900.0,7400.0,10200.0,7100.0,6700.0,7800.0,9800.0,12900.0,6800.0,7700.0,8900.0,11300.0,7800.0,7600.0,10700.0,7500.0,7200.0,8600.0,10500.0,13800.0,7300.0,8200.0,9900.0,12100.0,9400.0,8200.0,11600.0,8000.0,7600.0,9000.0,10800.0,14200.0,7400.0,8300.0,9800.0,12500.0,8500.0,8100.0,11300.0,7700.0,7300.0,8600.0,10200.0,13100.0,6800.0,8700.0,7600.0,11400.0,7100.0,7200.0,9900.0,6800.0,6400.0,7500.0,8900.0,11600.0,6100.0,6800.0,8400.0,9800.0,7900.0,6600.0,9100.0,6200.0,5900.0,6900.0,8200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5200.0,3900.0,4500.0,4300.0,5600.0,4100.0,4800.0,4400.0,3600.0,3800.0,4300.0,5400.0,5600.0,4100.0,4700.0,4900.0,6100.0,4400.0,5200.0,4800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4600.0,5900.0,6100.0,4500.0,5200.0,5100.0,6700.0,4800.0,5500.0,5100.0,4200.0,4500.0,5100.0,6400.0,6600.0,4800.0,5600.0,5800.0,7200.0,5100.0,5900.0,5400.0,4500.0,4700.0,5400.0,6800.0,6800.0,5100.0,4100.0,3800.0,4900.0,4200.0,4800.0,4600.0,3900.0,4100.0,4800.0,6100.0,6200.0,4600.0,5300.0,5200.0,6800.0,4900.0,5600.0,5200.0,4400.0,4600.0,5300.0,6900.0,7100.0,5200.0,5900.0,6100.0,7800.0,5500.0,6400.0,5900.0,4900.0,5200.0,6000.0,7600.0,7800.0,5700.0,6400.0,6600.0,8400.0,6000.0,7000.0,6400.0,5300.0,5600.0,6500.0,8100.0,8200.0,6000.0,6900.0,7000.0,8900.0,6300.0,7400.0,6800.0,5600.0,6000.0,6900.0,8600.0,8700.0,6300.0,7200.0,7300.0,9300.0,6600.0,7800.0,7100.0,5900.0,6300.0,7200.0,9000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[9800.0,7600.0,10200.0,8600.0,11800.0,8400.0,10900.0,12800.0,8700.0,7900.0,8000.0,10600.0,9600.0,7400.0,8200.0,10800.0,11600.0,9200.0,10700.0,12500.0,8500.0,7700.0,7800.0,10300.0,9300.0,7200.0,9800.0,9000.0,11900.0,8300.0,10400.0,12100.0,8300.0,7500.0,7600.0,10000.0,9100.0,7000.0,7600.0,10300.0,10200.0,9300.0,10200.0,11800.0,8100.0,7300.0,7400.0,9700.0,8800.0,6900.0,5600.0,5400.0,6600.0,5900.0,7300.0,8700.0,6400.0,5900.0,5800.0,7900.0,7100.0,5800.0,6900.0,7200.0,8600.0,6700.0,8400.0,9800.0,7000.0,6500.0,6600.0,8600.0,7900.0,6300.0,6900.0,8600.0,8900.0,7600.0,9000.0,10300.0,7300.0,6700.0,6700.0,8700.0,7800.0,6100.0,6700.0,8200.0,8800.0,6900.0,8500.0,9700.0,6800.0,6200.0,6200.0,8000.0,7100.0,5600.0,7300.0,6300.0,8000.0,5900.0,7400.0,8600.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,7100.0,6300.0,5000.0,5300.0,6400.0,6600.0,5600.0,6600.0,7600.0,5300.0,4900.0,4900.0,6300.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[11000.0,9000.0,13500.0,11500.0,14500.0,10500.0,12000.0,12500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,12000.0,12000.0,9500.0,11500.0,15500.0,16000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13500.0,9800.0,9800.0,10200.0,13000.0,12500.0,10000.0,14500.0,14000.0,16500.0,12000.0,13500.0,14000.0,10000.0,10200.0,10500.0,13500.0,13000.0,10500.0,12000.0,16500.0,17000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14500.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,14000.0,12500.0,10000.0,9500.0,11000.0,12000.0,9500.0,10500.0,10500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8200.0,10500.0,10000.0,8500.0,11000.0,12000.0,13500.0,9800.0,11000.0,11500.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,11500.0,11500.0,9500.0,11500.0,15000.0,16000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,9800.0,9800.0,10200.0,13000.0,12500.0,10000.0,12500.0,15500.0,16500.0,12000.0,13500.0,14000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,13500.0,12500.0,10000.0,14500.0,13500.0,16500.0,11500.0,13500.0,14000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,13500.0,12000.0,9800.0,11500.0,15500.0,16000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,9800.0,9800.0,10000.0,13000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9100.0,4300.0,9600.0,6400.0,8100.0,5500.0,12200.0,31500.0,6100.0,4400.0,4200.0,14200.0,8600.0,4350.0,6100.0,11200.0,8400.0,5100.0,13100.0,33800.0,5900.0,4300.0,4100.0,14700.0,8200.0,4250.0,9200.0,9600.0,7600.0,5300.0,13600.0,35200.0,6000.0,4400.0,4000.0,15300.0,8300.0,4450.0,6300.0,11600.0,9100.0,7600.0,14100.0,36400.0,6100.0,4500.0,4200.0,15800.0,8100.0,4300.0,8100.0,12100.0,8600.0,5600.0,10800.0,29800.0,5600.0,4200.0,4000.0,16300.0,8600.0,4200.0,7000.0,11400.0,8100.0,5000.0,12000.0,33200.0,5700.0,4100.0,3900.0,15100.0,8000.0,4100.0,6000.0,11000.0,8300.0,5300.0,12900.0,34100.0,5800.0,4000.0,3900.0,14600.0,7500.0,4000.0,6200.0,10600.0,8000.0,5000.0,13000.0,33900.0,5600.0,3900.0,3800.0,14100.0,7400.0,3900.0,9600.0,9000.0,7800.0,5000.0,12500.0,32800.0,5400.0,3800.0,3700.0,13600.0,7000.0,3600.0,5500.0,9500.0,7500.0,4800.0,12000.0,31000.0,5200.0,3500.0,3400.0,13000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3380.0,2050.0,3000.0,2350.0,2620.0,2420.0,2340.0,3090.0,1980.0,2270.0,2460.0,3710.0,3330.0,2060.0,2420.0,3100.0,2690.0,2380.0,2370.0,3110.0,2130.0,2340.0,2500.0,3790.0,3460.0,2200.0,2510.0,3080.0,2710.0,2450.0,2480.0,3220.0,2140.0,2370.0,2640.0,3670.0,3460.0,2250.0,2590.0,3050.0,2970.0,2410.0,2620.0,3160.0,2340.0,2330.0,2760.0,3880.0,3570.0,2350.0,3390.0,4060.0,3700.0,2900.0,2910.0,3410.0,2560.0,2580.0,3030.0,4080.0,3760.0,2630.0,2880.0,3380.0,3250.0,2730.0,2910.0,3560.0,2550.0,2740.0,2970.0,4190.0,3680.0,2400.0,2730.0,3220.0,3140.0,2640.0,2810.0,3290.0,2490.0,2520.0,2920.0,3980.0,3670.0,2560.0,2810.0,3330.0,3060.0,2790.0,2790.0,3500.0,2500.0,2670.0,2880.0,4130.0,3840.0,2600.0,3350.0,2820.0,3250.0,2730.0,2910.0,3570.0,2520.0,2700.0,3030.0,4040.0,3850.0,2610.0,2900.0,3420.0,3320.0,2800.0,2990.0,3570.0,2570.0,2780.0,3020.0,4200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[16173.0,12940.0,15388.0,14062.0,15127.0,13158.0,14463.0,16042.0,11827.0,12163.0,11542.0,17038.0,17284.0,14263.0,15572.0,16847.0,16294.0,14072.0,15381.0,17163.0,12648.0,12937.0,12462.0,18074.0,18962.0,15743.0,17086.0,18473.0,17864.0,15482.0,16971.0,18874.0,13862.0,14137.0,13648.0,19873.0,20137.0,16582.0,18246.0,19673.0,18864.0,16472.0,17983.0,20041.0,14762.0,15038.0,14573.0,21086.0,17964.0,14783.0,17026.0,18172.0,15864.0,14283.0,15572.0,17438.0,12964.0,13187.0,12873.0,18326.0,19583.0,16172.0,17964.0,19187.0,18273.0,15862.0,17584.0,19473.0,14286.0,14537.0,14082.0,20246.0,22963.0,18987.0,20974.0,22462.0,21583.0,18772.0,20638.0,22987.0,16873.0,17126.0,16584.0,23972.0,25186.0,20783.0,23047.0,24572.0,23684.0,20573.0,22638.0,25187.0,18462.0,18837.0,18173.0,26284.0,26873.0,22186.0,25472.0,24983.0,25164.0,22087.0,24137.0,26784.0,19762.0,20083.0,19472.0,28126.0,28573.0,23584.0,26187.0,28062.0,26873.0,23486.0,25724.0,28583.0,21072.0,21384.0,20786.0,29847.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[624.0,494.0,494.0,598.0,624.0,546.0,520.0,650.0,494.0,494.0,468.0,676.0,648.0,513.0,513.0,621.0,648.0,567.0,540.0,675.0,513.0,513.0,486.0,702.0,672.0,532.0,532.0,644.0,672.0,588.0,560.0,700.0,532.0,532.0,504.0,728.0,696.0,551.0,551.0,667.0,696.0,609.0,580.0,725.0,551.0,551.0,522.0,754.0,600.0,475.0,475.0,575.0,600.0,525.0,500.0,625.0,475.0,475.0,450.0,650.0,624.0,494.0,494.0,598.0,624.0,546.0,520.0,650.0,494.0,494.0,468.0,676.0,720.0,570.0,570.0,690.0,720.0,630.0,600.0,750.0,570.0,570.0,540.0,780.0,744.0,589.0,589.0,713.0,744.0,651.0,620.0,775.0,589.0,589.0,558.0,806.0,732.0,580.0,580.0,702.0,732.0,641.0,610.0,763.0,580.0,580.0,549.0,793.0,708.0,561.0,561.0,679.0,708.0,620.0,590.0,738.0,561.0,561.0,531.0,767.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3150.0,2020.0,1980.0,2310.0,2380.0,2400.0,2050.0,2550.0,2150.0,1900.0,2120.0,3380.0,3400.0,1980.0,2200.0,2240.0,2600.0,2300.0,2250.0,2400.0,2200.0,1950.0,2180.0,3650.0,3350.0,2200.0,2150.0,2480.0,2550.0,2550.0,2180.0,2650.0,2150.0,2150.0,2250.0,3750.0,3700.0,2150.0,2400.0,2450.0,2850.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,2400.0,2150.0,2380.0,3950.0,3050.0,1950.0,1550.0,1250.0,1650.0,1800.0,1850.0,2100.0,1900.0,1600.0,1750.0,3000.0,3100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2150.0,2700.0,2500.0,2350.0,2650.0,2250.0,2150.0,2300.0,3800.0,3750.0,2450.0,2550.0,2950.0,3250.0,3050.0,2800.0,3150.0,2700.0,2550.0,2700.0,4500.0,4100.0,2550.0,2650.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2700.0,3100.0,2650.0,2500.0,2650.0,4400.0,4300.0,2600.0,2800.0,2950.0,3300.0,3050.0,2800.0,3200.0,2750.0,2600.0,2750.0,4600.0,4450.0,2750.0,2850.0,3100.0,3350.0,3200.0,2900.0,3300.0,2850.0,2700.0,2850.0,4750.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3500.0,2500.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,2700.0,2900.0,3400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,4600.0,4100.0,2750.0,3190.0,3410.0,3520.0,2970.0,3190.0,3740.0,2750.0,2640.0,2750.0,4840.0,4200.0,3000.0,3480.0,3720.0,3840.0,3240.0,3480.0,4080.0,3000.0,2880.0,3000.0,5280.0,4667.0,3333.0,3867.0,4133.0,4267.0,3600.0,3867.0,4533.0,3333.0,3200.0,3333.0,5867.0,5367.0,3833.0,4900.0,5200.0,4907.0,4140.0,4447.0,5213.0,3833.0,3680.0,3833.0,7000.0,6500.0,4333.0,5027.0,5373.0,5547.0,4680.0,5027.0,5893.0,4333.0,4160.0,4333.0,8200.0,6300.0,4167.0,4833.0,5167.0,5333.0,4500.0,4833.0,5667.0,4167.0,4000.0,4167.0,7800.0,5800.0,3917.0,4543.0,4857.0,5013.0,4230.0,4543.0,5327.0,3917.0,3760.0,3917.0,6893.0,5250.0,3750.0,4350.0,4650.0,4800.0,4050.0,4350.0,5100.0,3750.0,3600.0,3750.0,6600.0,5017.0,3583.0,4157.0,4443.0,4587.0,3870.0,4157.0,4873.0,3583.0,3440.0,3583.0,6307.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[5150.0,1820.0,2180.0,2010.0,2160.0,2390.0,2260.0,8950.0,2420.0,2190.0,1980.0,4050.0,5450.0,1950.0,2260.0,2080.0,2240.0,2510.0,2370.0,9650.0,2520.0,2280.0,2070.0,4300.0,5750.0,2040.0,2380.0,2220.0,2310.0,2600.0,2480.0,10150.0,2650.0,2390.0,2160.0,4550.0,6100.0,2150.0,2470.0,2300.0,2390.0,2700.0,2560.0,10750.0,2780.0,2480.0,2250.0,4850.0,6250.0,2200.0,2900.0,2550.0,2470.0,2820.0,2680.0,11250.0,2900.0,2580.0,2330.0,4750.0,6050.0,2180.0,2620.0,2450.0,2480.0,2800.0,2650.0,11000.0,2850.0,2540.0,2300.0,4850.0,6400.0,2250.0,2700.0,2500.0,2560.0,2900.0,2720.0,11550.0,2950.0,2620.0,2380.0,5050.0,6750.0,2350.0,2820.0,2620.0,2680.0,3000.0,2830.0,12150.0,3080.0,2750.0,2480.0,5250.0,7050.0,2450.0,2900.0,2680.0,2760.0,3100.0,2920.0,12500.0,3180.0,2830.0,2560.0,5450.0,6900.0,2400.0,2820.0,2650.0,2730.0,3050.0,2870.0,12300.0,3120.0,2790.0,2520.0,5300.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1100.0,1000.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0,1000.0,1100.0,1300.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1400.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1100.0,1200.0,1500.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1200.0,1300.0,1600.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1700.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1300.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1500.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,2000.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1800.0,1800.0,1600.0,1600.0,2000.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,2200.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,2400.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,2300.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[5900.0,2200.0,3800.0,3600.0,4200.0,2750.0,4950.0,4200.0,2200.0,2750.0,3700.0,5900.0,5750.0,2150.0,3100.0,4250.0,3750.0,3450.0,4850.0,4150.0,2150.0,2700.0,3600.0,5700.0,6000.0,2250.0,3250.0,4500.0,4150.0,3200.0,5050.0,4300.0,2250.0,2800.0,3750.0,6000.0,6200.0,2300.0,3150.0,4550.0,4100.0,3650.0,5150.0,4450.0,2300.0,3200.0,3950.0,6150.0,5700.0,2100.0,2800.0,4250.0,3850.0,3500.0,4600.0,4100.0,2100.0,2650.0,3550.0,5700.0,6350.0,2350.0,3150.0,4650.0,4300.0,3350.0,5250.0,4550.0,2350.0,2950.0,3950.0,6300.0,6800.0,2550.0,3400.0,4950.0,4350.0,4100.0,5800.0,4900.0,2550.0,3150.0,4250.0,6800.0,7100.0,2650.0,3650.0,5150.0,4700.0,3850.0,6000.0,5100.0,2650.0,3650.0,4450.0,7100.0,7300.0,2700.0,4400.0,4950.0,4750.0,3950.0,6100.0,5250.0,2700.0,3400.0,4550.0,7250.0,7600.0,2850.0,3800.0,5500.0,4900.0,4500.0,6350.0,5450.0,2850.0,3550.0,4750.0,7550.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2550.0,1980.0,2120.0,2310.0,2490.0,2260.0,2080.0,2040.0,2140.0,2220.0,2370.0,3010.0,2620.0,2050.0,2190.0,2410.0,2600.0,2340.0,2180.0,2130.0,2230.0,2290.0,2460.0,3160.0,2760.0,2160.0,2310.0,2520.0,2720.0,2440.0,2270.0,2230.0,2350.0,2410.0,2580.0,3290.0,2830.0,2210.0,2380.0,2600.0,2800.0,2520.0,2340.0,2300.0,2410.0,2480.0,2650.0,3380.0,2960.0,2320.0,2740.0,2830.0,2910.0,2630.0,2460.0,2390.0,2500.0,2590.0,2780.0,3500.0,2820.0,2180.0,2340.0,2530.0,2710.0,2440.0,2260.0,2200.0,2320.0,2400.0,2580.0,3280.0,2870.0,2240.0,2390.0,2610.0,2810.0,2530.0,2360.0,2290.0,2410.0,2490.0,2670.0,3400.0,2930.0,2290.0,2460.0,2690.0,2890.0,2600.0,2410.0,2350.0,2470.0,2560.0,2740.0,3490.0,3010.0,2350.0,2530.0,2760.0,2970.0,2670.0,2480.0,2420.0,2540.0,2630.0,2810.0,3580.0,2920.0,2280.0,2440.0,2660.0,2850.0,2560.0,2380.0,2320.0,2440.0,2520.0,2700.0,3430.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1540.0,1260.0,1400.0,1820.0,1400.0,1260.0,1400.0,1820.0,1260.0,1330.0,1260.0,2100.0,1485.0,1215.0,1350.0,1755.0,1350.0,1215.0,1350.0,1755.0,1215.0,1283.0,1215.0,2025.0,1540.0,1260.0,1400.0,1820.0,1400.0,1260.0,1400.0,1820.0,1260.0,1330.0,1260.0,2100.0,1430.0,1170.0,1300.0,1690.0,1300.0,1170.0,1300.0,1690.0,1170.0,1235.0,1170.0,1950.0,1870.0,1530.0,2100.0,2400.0,1700.0,1530.0,1700.0,2210.0,1530.0,1615.0,1530.0,2550.0,1705.0,1395.0,1550.0,2015.0,1550.0,1395.0,1550.0,2015.0,1395.0,1473.0,1395.0,2325.0,1540.0,1260.0,1400.0,1820.0,1400.0,1260.0,1400.0,1820.0,1260.0,1330.0,1260.0,2100.0,1375.0,1125.0,1250.0,1625.0,1250.0,1125.0,1250.0,1625.0,1125.0,1188.0,1125.0,1875.0,1265.0,1035.0,1150.0,1495.0,1150.0,1035.0,1150.0,1495.0,1035.0,1093.0,1035.0,1725.0,1100.0,900.0,1000.0,1300.0,1000.0,900.0,1000.0,1300.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,1500.0]}},{"title":"Laurus nobilis","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Laurus nobilis\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15529,16200,18682,18714,18472,16724,15810,18367,17522,17495,17396,16339,18272,18280,20845,20091,18735,16416,16004,17022,16242,17439,16889,15203,17470,16036,18459,19477,21474,18240,16974,18828,17466,16838,16953,14834,16727,16501,20558,20767,20992,18834,19011,20146,20264,18748,18902,17314,18769,18729,21444,31930,32430,24618,23045,22571,22890,22778,22208,21139,21374,21341,28482,28758,26345,23991,23545,23633,22513,21887,19201,17818,20552,19521,22053,22760,21074,20282,20305,21605,21298,20596,19066,16862,19552,20185,22830,23289,25730,23946,25170,26696,26940,27094,23985,25161,26560,26364,29201,29272,27028,22271,20594,22422,20774,21861,20900,24435,23200,19382,23508,23708,25032,19087,19248,21825,19734,21917,18970,16458],"flat_reference_value":16946.155517843476,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,32000.0,34000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,32000.0,35000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,34000.0,37000.0,39000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,35000.0,39000.0,41000.0,37000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,38000.0,44000.0,49000.0,44000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,42000.0,46000.0,48000.0,43000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,36000.0,34000.0,39000.0,42000.0,44000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0,38000.0,41000.0,43000.0,39000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,38000.0,42000.0,43000.0,39000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[21400.0,19200.0,22100.0,23800.0,24500.0,21200.0,20800.0,23600.0,19900.0,20500.0,23400.0,22800.0,22100.0,19500.0,22900.0,24400.0,25100.0,21700.0,21000.0,20600.0,19800.0,20700.0,23900.0,23100.0,22600.0,19700.0,23100.0,24800.0,28400.0,22000.0,21300.0,20900.0,20100.0,21100.0,24200.0,23500.0,23000.0,20100.0,23700.0,25300.0,25900.0,22400.0,21800.0,21400.0,20600.0,21500.0,24700.0,24100.0,23800.0,21200.0,26500.0,34200.0,35800.0,29400.0,27100.0,26300.0,25100.0,26000.0,29800.0,28900.0,28200.0,24600.0,28500.0,30400.0,31100.0,26200.0,27400.0,26900.0,23400.0,24100.0,27300.0,26400.0,25600.0,22100.0,25400.0,27100.0,27800.0,23800.0,22900.0,22300.0,21400.0,22200.0,25300.0,24500.0,23900.0,20600.0,23800.0,25500.0,26200.0,22400.0,21700.0,21100.0,20200.0,20900.0,23800.0,23100.0,22300.0,19800.0,22400.0,23900.0,24400.0,20800.0,22100.0,22600.0,18900.0,19500.0,22100.0,21400.0,20600.0,17900.0,20700.0,22100.0,22600.0,19300.0,18700.0,18300.0,17500.0,18100.0,20600.0,19900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[15800.0,16400.0,19200.0,20800.0,21300.0,17500.0,15900.0,15200.0,16800.0,17900.0,17100.0,15600.0,16100.0,16900.0,20100.0,21900.0,22400.0,18200.0,16300.0,15800.0,17400.0,18500.0,17600.0,16200.0,16800.0,17300.0,20600.0,22300.0,22900.0,18700.0,16700.0,16100.0,17800.0,18900.0,17900.0,16400.0,16700.0,17200.0,20400.0,21800.0,22100.0,18100.0,16200.0,15700.0,17200.0,18400.0,17400.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,21500.0,26800.0,27400.0,21600.0,18700.0,17900.0,19500.0,20100.0,18800.0,17200.0,17600.0,18100.0,22100.0,24200.0,24500.0,19800.0,17300.0,16600.0,18100.0,19300.0,18000.0,16500.0,16900.0,17400.0,21000.0,22700.0,23100.0,18600.0,16400.0,15800.0,17300.0,18200.0,17100.0,15700.0,16200.0,16700.0,20100.0,21700.0,22000.0,17900.0,15800.0,15100.0,16600.0,17600.0,16500.0,15200.0,15700.0,16300.0,19600.0,21100.0,21500.0,17400.0,15300.0,14700.0,16200.0,17100.0,16100.0,14800.0,15300.0,15900.0,19100.0,20600.0,21000.0,17000.0,14900.0,14300.0,15800.0,16700.0,15700.0,14500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[35000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34500.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,31000.0,33000.0,33500.0,33000.0,29500.0,28500.0,28500.0,29500.0,31500.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,29000.0,31000.0,31500.0,31000.0,27500.0,26500.0,26500.0,27500.0,29500.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27500.0,29000.0,29500.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29500.0,28500.0,28500.0,26500.0,30000.0,34000.0,32000.0,27000.0,25500.0,25000.0,25500.0,27500.0,29000.0,28500.0,28000.0,25500.0,27500.0,28000.0,27500.0,24500.0,23500.0,23500.0,24000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,23500.0,25000.0,25500.0,25000.0,22500.0,21500.0,21500.0,22500.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23500.0,24000.0,23500.0,21000.0,20500.0,20500.0,21000.0,22500.0,23500.0,22500.0,22500.0,21000.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,19500.0,20500.0,21000.0,20500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18500.0,19500.0,20500.0,19500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[36000.0,34500.0,36000.0,36500.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33500.0,32500.0,33500.0,34500.0,35000.0,38500.0,36000.0,38500.0,38000.0,39000.0,36500.0,36000.0,35500.0,34000.0,35000.0,35500.0,35500.0,37500.0,34500.0,36500.0,36000.0,36500.0,34000.0,34000.0,33500.0,32000.0,33000.0,33500.0,33500.0,35500.0,32500.0,34500.0,34000.0,34500.0,32000.0,32500.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32500.0,33000.0,35500.0,33000.0,37000.0,44000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38500.0,37500.0,35000.0,35500.0,36500.0,37000.0,38500.0,35500.0,37500.0,36500.0,36500.0,33500.0,32500.0,32000.0,30500.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32500.0,29500.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27500.0,27500.0,27500.0,26000.0,26500.0,26500.0,27000.0,28500.0,26000.0,27500.0,27000.0,27500.0,25500.0,25500.0,25500.0,24500.0,25000.0,25000.0,25500.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25500.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23500.0,23500.0,24000.0,25500.0,23500.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22500.0,22500.0,23000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[31400.0,29200.0,33800.0,35100.0,34600.0,32400.0,33900.0,31200.0,31000.0,33300.0,38200.0,46800.0,32700.0,30100.0,34400.0,36000.0,35300.0,33200.0,34800.0,32000.0,31800.0,34100.0,39400.0,47900.0,33900.0,30900.0,35700.0,37200.0,38600.0,33800.0,35600.0,32900.0,32400.0,34800.0,40300.0,49600.0,35500.0,32800.0,37300.0,39000.0,38400.0,36100.0,37700.0,34800.0,34300.0,36600.0,42500.0,51700.0,38900.0,36100.0,46500.0,54700.0,52300.0,44800.0,44100.0,41200.0,41600.0,43900.0,50200.0,60800.0,42300.0,38600.0,43200.0,45100.0,44300.0,42000.0,44600.0,42400.0,40100.0,42300.0,48600.0,57400.0,39700.0,36400.0,41100.0,42800.0,42000.0,39900.0,41300.0,38200.0,37900.0,40400.0,46200.0,54300.0,39900.0,36800.0,41600.0,43300.0,42400.0,40200.0,41700.0,38600.0,38300.0,40800.0,46700.0,54900.0,41000.0,37700.0,42500.0,44200.0,43300.0,41000.0,44400.0,43600.0,39400.0,41700.0,47900.0,56200.0,41400.0,38100.0,42900.0,44600.0,43700.0,41300.0,42500.0,39500.0,39200.0,41900.0,48300.0,56800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[14520.0,12780.0,13650.0,13120.0,12340.0,10750.0,10180.0,10360.0,11290.0,12940.0,14760.0,16180.0,15080.0,13320.0,14150.0,13680.0,12890.0,11120.0,10650.0,10820.0,11740.0,13450.0,15380.0,16820.0,15600.0,13800.0,14700.0,14100.0,13350.0,11600.0,11000.0,11250.0,12200.0,13950.0,15900.0,17450.0,15900.0,14100.0,15000.0,14450.0,13600.0,11800.0,11250.0,11500.0,12500.0,14250.0,16250.0,17800.0,16500.0,14800.0,18200.0,17800.0,16500.0,14200.0,11800.0,12000.0,13000.0,14800.0,17000.0,18500.0,17300.0,15300.0,16300.0,15700.0,14800.0,12900.0,12200.0,12400.0,13500.0,15400.0,17600.0,19200.0,16400.0,14500.0,15500.0,14900.0,14000.0,12200.0,11600.0,11800.0,12800.0,14600.0,16700.0,18250.0,16750.0,14800.0,15800.0,15200.0,14300.0,12450.0,11850.0,12050.0,13100.0,14950.0,17050.0,18600.0,17100.0,15100.0,16120.0,15500.0,14600.0,12700.0,12100.0,12300.0,13350.0,15250.0,17400.0,19000.0,17450.0,15400.0,16450.0,15800.0,14900.0,12950.0,12350.0,12550.0,13600.0,15550.0,17750.0,19350.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[21400.0,19900.0,21100.0,22300.0,23200.0,21900.0,20600.0,19400.0,20300.0,21500.0,23700.0,24200.0,22900.0,21400.0,22400.0,23900.0,24800.0,23500.0,22100.0,21000.0,21500.0,23000.0,25300.0,25700.0,24500.0,22700.0,24100.0,25500.0,28600.0,25300.0,23400.0,22200.0,23100.0,24600.0,27000.0,27500.0,26500.0,24800.0,25900.0,27600.0,28700.0,27200.0,25500.0,24300.0,25000.0,26600.0,29200.0,29800.0,31600.0,29500.0,34100.0,39500.0,41000.0,37400.0,32800.0,29400.0,29800.0,31700.0,36500.0,37200.0,33700.0,31200.0,33100.0,35000.0,36400.0,34500.0,32400.0,30600.0,31800.0,33700.0,37100.0,37800.0,36800.0,34100.0,35900.0,38200.0,39700.0,37600.0,35300.0,33600.0,34700.0,36800.0,40500.0,41200.0,39800.0,37000.0,39100.0,41400.0,43000.0,40800.0,38300.0,36400.0,37500.0,39900.0,43800.0,44700.0,43900.0,40900.0,43100.0,45600.0,47400.0,45000.0,42200.0,42400.0,43000.0,43900.0,48300.0,49200.0,47000.0,43600.0,46100.0,48800.0,50700.0,48100.0,45100.0,42800.0,44200.0,47000.0,51700.0,52600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[13920.0,13630.0,14790.0,15520.0,15800.0,14500.0,13630.0,13630.0,14500.0,14940.0,15230.0,15520.0,14600.0,14300.0,15500.0,16300.0,16600.0,15200.0,14300.0,14300.0,15200.0,15700.0,16000.0,16300.0,15400.0,15000.0,16300.0,17100.0,17400.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16800.0,17100.0,16100.0,15800.0,17100.0,18000.0,18300.0,16800.0,15800.0,15800.0,16800.0,17300.0,17600.0,18000.0,18700.0,18300.0,19900.0,20900.0,21300.0,19500.0,18300.0,18300.0,19500.0,20100.0,20500.0,20900.0,19700.0,19300.0,20900.0,21900.0,22300.0,20500.0,19300.0,19300.0,20500.0,21100.0,21500.0,21900.0,20200.0,19700.0,21400.0,22500.0,22900.0,21000.0,19700.0,19700.0,21000.0,21600.0,22100.0,22500.0,19200.0,18800.0,20400.0,21400.0,21800.0,20000.0,18800.0,18800.0,20000.0,20600.0,21000.0,21400.0,18700.0,18300.0,19900.0,20900.0,21300.0,19500.0,18300.0,18300.0,19500.0,20100.0,20500.0,20900.0,18200.0,17900.0,19400.0,20300.0,20700.0,19000.0,17900.0,17900.0,19000.0,19600.0,20000.0,20300.0],"meta/muse-ember":[20700.0,18900.0,19600.0,19300.0,18000.0,15800.0,15400.0,15800.0,17200.0,18400.0,21400.0,21700.0,21800.0,20000.0,20700.0,20400.0,19100.0,16700.0,16300.0,16700.0,18100.0,19400.0,22600.0,22900.0,23000.0,21100.0,21800.0,21500.0,20100.0,17600.0,17200.0,17600.0,19100.0,20500.0,23800.0,24200.0,24200.0,22100.0,23000.0,22600.0,21000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,20100.0,21600.0,25000.0,25400.0,24800.0,23800.0,32800.0,34700.0,30100.0,23300.0,21800.0,21300.0,23200.0,25500.0,30200.0,30100.0,25400.0,23200.0,24100.0,23700.0,22100.0,19400.0,23700.0,23200.0,21100.0,22600.0,26200.0,26700.0,23600.0,21600.0,22400.0,22000.0,20600.0,18000.0,17600.0,18000.0,25500.0,23500.0,26800.0,24800.0,22400.0,23000.0,23500.0,20900.0,23500.0,17100.0,16700.0,17100.0,18600.0,20000.0,23200.0,25900.0,23000.0,21100.0,21800.0,23600.0,23100.0,20200.0,24900.0,23700.0,21000.0,20500.0,23800.0,24200.0,21800.0,20000.0,20700.0,20400.0,19100.0,16700.0,16300.0,16700.0,18100.0,19400.0,22600.0,22900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[15800.0,15500.0,18000.0,19300.0,18900.0,17500.0,16700.0,16600.0,17500.0,18400.0,20300.0,21600.0,17200.0,16800.0,19500.0,20900.0,20500.0,18900.0,18100.0,17900.0,18900.0,19900.0,22000.0,23400.0,18500.0,18100.0,21000.0,22500.0,22100.0,20400.0,19500.0,19300.0,20400.0,21400.0,23700.0,25200.0,20200.0,19800.0,23000.0,24600.0,24200.0,22300.0,21400.0,21200.0,22300.0,23500.0,26000.0,27600.0,23800.0,23200.0,27000.0,28900.0,28400.0,26200.0,25100.0,24800.0,26200.0,27500.0,30500.0,32400.0,26400.0,25800.0,30000.0,32100.0,31500.0,29100.0,27900.0,27600.0,29100.0,30600.0,33900.0,36000.0,24600.0,24100.0,28000.0,30000.0,29400.0,27200.0,26000.0,25800.0,27200.0,28600.0,31600.0,33600.0,22900.0,22400.0,26000.0,27800.0,27300.0,25200.0,24200.0,23900.0,25200.0,26500.0,29400.0,31200.0,21600.0,21100.0,24500.0,26200.0,25700.0,23800.0,22800.0,22500.0,23800.0,25000.0,27700.0,29400.0,20700.0,20200.0,23500.0,25100.0,24700.0,22800.0,21900.0,21600.0,22800.0,24000.0,26600.0,28200.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[29500.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27500.0,24500.0,21500.0,20500.0,24500.0,29500.0,36000.0,48000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28500.0,25500.0,22500.0,21000.0,25500.0,31000.0,38000.0,51000.0,33000.0,29500.0,31000.0,32000.0,29500.0,27000.0,23000.0,22000.0,26000.0,32000.0,39000.0,53000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,28000.0,24000.0,23000.0,27000.0,33000.0,41000.0,56000.0,41000.0,38000.0,47000.0,52000.0,50000.0,40000.0,33000.0,31000.0,38000.0,47000.0,59000.0,78000.0,44000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35000.0,30000.0,29000.0,34000.0,42000.0,52000.0,67000.0,46000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,36000.0,31000.0,30000.0,36000.0,44000.0,54000.0,70000.0,48000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,37000.0,45000.0,56000.0,73000.0,50000.0,43000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,38000.0,33000.0,32000.0,39000.0,47000.0,59000.0,77000.0,53000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,45000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,40000.0,49000.0,61000.0,81000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1150.0,1250.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1450.0,1350.0,1300.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2480.0,2270.0,2830.0,3100.0,3290.0,2980.0,2500.0,2400.0,2640.0,2810.0,3180.0,3620.0,2450.0,2280.0,2860.0,3120.0,3410.0,3010.0,2540.0,2360.0,2680.0,2880.0,3140.0,3420.0,2530.0,2340.0,2960.0,3250.0,3540.0,3100.0,2600.0,2420.0,2740.0,2970.0,3230.0,3550.0,2600.0,2400.0,3030.0,3350.0,3680.0,3190.0,2700.0,2510.0,2840.0,3070.0,3330.0,3700.0,2930.0,2700.0,3960.0,4360.0,4580.0,3690.0,2980.0,2720.0,3050.0,3340.0,3840.0,4320.0,2770.0,2570.0,3300.0,3660.0,3980.0,3540.0,2910.0,2650.0,2990.0,3280.0,3720.0,4010.0,2680.0,2430.0,3140.0,3450.0,3760.0,3310.0,2800.0,2530.0,2900.0,3150.0,3520.0,3900.0,2590.0,2360.0,3030.0,3360.0,3650.0,3210.0,2700.0,2450.0,2780.0,3050.0,3420.0,3800.0,2740.0,2510.0,3230.0,3560.0,3890.0,3450.0,4210.0,3050.0,2950.0,3210.0,3650.0,4020.0,2680.0,2460.0,3140.0,3460.0,3780.0,3350.0,2800.0,2530.0,2880.0,3160.0,3560.0,3950.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1900.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1750.0,1800.0,1950.0,2200.0,2600.0,1950.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,2000.0,2250.0,2650.0,1950.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1750.0,1800.0,1950.0,2200.0,2550.0,1900.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1750.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1900.0,2150.0,2500.0,2000.0,1850.0,2100.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2200.0,2350.0,2600.0,3000.0,2200.0,1950.0,2050.0,2000.0,2050.0,1950.0,2000.0,2000.0,2050.0,2200.0,2450.0,2850.0,2100.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,1850.0,1900.0,1900.0,1950.0,2100.0,2350.0,2750.0,2000.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,1850.0,1900.0,2050.0,2300.0,2700.0,1950.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,2000.0,2250.0,2650.0,1900.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1750.0,1800.0,1950.0,2200.0,2600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3300.0,3060.0,3000.0,2940.0,2850.0,2760.0,2700.0,2760.0,3000.0,3150.0,3300.0,3450.0,3190.0,2958.0,2900.0,2842.0,2755.0,2668.0,2610.0,2668.0,2900.0,3045.0,3190.0,3335.0,3080.0,2856.0,2800.0,2744.0,2660.0,2576.0,2520.0,2576.0,2800.0,2940.0,3080.0,3220.0,2970.0,2754.0,2700.0,2646.0,2565.0,2484.0,2430.0,2484.0,2700.0,2835.0,2970.0,3105.0,3520.0,3264.0,3600.0,3500.0,3040.0,2944.0,2880.0,2944.0,3200.0,3360.0,3520.0,3680.0,3300.0,3060.0,3000.0,2940.0,2850.0,2760.0,2700.0,2760.0,3000.0,3150.0,3300.0,3450.0,2860.0,2652.0,2600.0,2548.0,2470.0,2392.0,2340.0,2392.0,2600.0,2730.0,2860.0,2990.0,2530.0,2346.0,2300.0,2254.0,2185.0,2116.0,2070.0,2116.0,2300.0,2415.0,2530.0,2645.0,2310.0,2142.0,2100.0,2058.0,1995.0,1932.0,1890.0,1932.0,2100.0,2205.0,2310.0,2415.0,2090.0,1938.0,1900.0,1862.0,1805.0,1748.0,1710.0,1748.0,1900.0,1995.0,2090.0,2185.0]}},{"title":"Partialism","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Partialism\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[11754,10853,11504,10796,11303,11016,10440,10433,9379,9282,9596,9530,10674,12318,13023,12623,11494,11251,11450,11004,10485,12769,12612,11460,11666,9894,10543,10273,10591,9862,9882,9969,9349,9457,9867,9667,11013,9522,9872,9843,11648,10203,10414,11363,10659,11755,11125,11228,11992,10309,11616,12888,13255,11455,11800,11912,10379,11026,11257,11479,12751,11232,14250,13718,14374,13265,14491,13987,12262,12159,11206,12239,12092,10298,11176,11285,10982,10908,10900,10734,12348,14502,11553,11409,12129,10601,11813,12538,13212,13154,13677,12080,11321,11995,12391,11693,11551,10287,11901,11102,11265,10535,11378,10976,10860,11246,11115,11362,11879,10104,11679,11709,11597,9963,10823,11019,9830,10804,10932,10772],"flat_reference_value":16998.040780094147,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4500.0,4100.0,4400.0,4200.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4800.0,4400.0,4700.0,4600.0,4900.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,5000.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,4600.0,4900.0,4800.0,5100.0,4700.0,4600.0,4900.0,4800.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,4900.0,5700.0,6300.0,6100.0,5600.0,5500.0,5700.0,5500.0,5900.0,5700.0,5600.0,6100.0,5500.0,6000.0,5800.0,6200.0,5700.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,6300.0,5900.0,5800.0,6200.0,5500.0,6000.0,5700.0,6100.0,5600.0,5500.0,5800.0,5600.0,6100.0,5800.0,5600.0,6000.0,5300.0,5800.0,5500.0,5900.0,5400.0,5300.0,5600.0,5400.0,5900.0,5600.0,5400.0,5900.0,5300.0,5700.0,5400.0,5800.0,5200.0,5200.0,5500.0,5200.0,5700.0,5400.0,5200.0,5600.0,5000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5600.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[24800.0,22900.0,24400.0,23600.0,24500.0,23900.0,25200.0,25400.0,23700.0,24300.0,23800.0,24900.0,25600.0,22800.0,25100.0,24200.0,24900.0,24100.0,25700.0,25500.0,23900.0,24600.0,24000.0,25200.0,26100.0,23200.0,25500.0,24400.0,25100.0,24300.0,25900.0,25800.0,24100.0,24800.0,24200.0,25400.0,26300.0,23500.0,25800.0,24700.0,25400.0,24800.0,26400.0,26200.0,24600.0,25300.0,24700.0,25900.0,26800.0,24900.0,27600.0,30400.0,31200.0,29500.0,30100.0,29800.0,27900.0,28400.0,27800.0,28900.0,29400.0,26200.0,28500.0,27300.0,27900.0,26800.0,27700.0,27500.0,25800.0,26400.0,25600.0,26700.0,27200.0,24100.0,26300.0,25200.0,25800.0,24900.0,25900.0,25600.0,24000.0,24600.0,23800.0,24700.0,25100.0,22300.0,24400.0,23300.0,23800.0,22900.0,23900.0,23600.0,22100.0,22500.0,21700.0,22400.0,22800.0,20900.0,22100.0,21100.0,21600.0,20800.0,21700.0,21400.0,20000.0,20400.0,19700.0,20300.0,20600.0,18400.0,20100.0,19200.0,19600.0,18900.0,19700.0,19500.0,18200.0,18600.0,17900.0,18500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[7120.0,7450.0,7890.0,7650.0,7320.0,6890.0,6710.0,7030.0,7680.0,8110.0,7940.0,6980.0,7560.0,7820.0,8340.0,8120.0,7950.0,7240.0,7180.0,7410.0,8090.0,8550.0,8410.0,7350.0,8200.0,8430.0,8980.0,8760.0,8390.0,7820.0,7650.0,8010.0,8630.0,9210.0,8870.0,7740.0,8650.0,8890.0,9470.0,9180.0,8840.0,8210.0,8050.0,8360.0,9120.0,9630.0,9310.0,8140.0,9050.0,9320.0,11480.0,12620.0,11840.0,9950.0,9340.0,9510.0,10120.0,10580.0,10210.0,8920.0,9680.0,9540.0,10240.0,9890.0,9450.0,8670.0,8410.0,8720.0,9380.0,9810.0,9420.0,8330.0,8920.0,8850.0,9360.0,9080.0,8640.0,7920.0,7780.0,8040.0,8690.0,9050.0,8710.0,7620.0,8310.0,8190.0,8740.0,8450.0,8060.0,7430.0,7250.0,7560.0,8120.0,8490.0,8170.0,7180.0,7760.0,7690.0,8150.0,7920.0,7510.0,6980.0,6840.0,7130.0,7650.0,7980.0,7690.0,6740.0,7320.0,7260.0,7710.0,7490.0,7140.0,6620.0,6480.0,6750.0,7280.0,7590.0,7310.0,6410.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[9800.0,9400.0,9900.0,9600.0,9300.0,8800.0,8900.0,9000.0,9200.0,9500.0,9300.0,8700.0,9400.0,8900.0,9300.0,9100.0,8800.0,8300.0,8400.0,8500.0,8600.0,8900.0,8700.0,8100.0,8700.0,8200.0,8600.0,8400.0,8100.0,7700.0,7800.0,7900.0,7900.0,8200.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7900.0,7700.0,7500.0,7100.0,7200.0,7300.0,7300.0,7500.0,7400.0,7000.0,7600.0,7300.0,8100.0,8700.0,8300.0,7600.0,7500.0,7400.0,7200.0,7400.0,7300.0,6900.0,7300.0,6900.0,7100.0,6900.0,6700.0,6400.0,6400.0,6500.0,6500.0,6700.0,6600.0,6200.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6100.0,5900.0,5600.0,5600.0,5700.0,5700.0,5900.0,5800.0,5400.0,5800.0,5400.0,5600.0,5400.0,5300.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,4900.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,4900.0,4800.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4400.0,4700.0,4400.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[21500.0,20200.0,20800.0,19900.0,20300.0,19800.0,20900.0,20600.0,19400.0,19700.0,19100.0,19800.0,20500.0,18600.0,19400.0,18500.0,18700.0,18100.0,18900.0,18600.0,17500.0,17800.0,17200.0,17900.0,18400.0,16600.0,17300.0,16500.0,16400.0,15900.0,16500.0,16300.0,15400.0,15600.0,15100.0,15700.0,16200.0,14600.0,15300.0,14700.0,14800.0,14300.0,14900.0,14800.0,13900.0,14100.0,13700.0,14300.0,14900.0,13800.0,14800.0,16000.0,15800.0,14700.0,14600.0,14200.0,13400.0,13300.0,13000.0,13600.0,14000.0,12600.0,13200.0,12600.0,12700.0,12200.0,12600.0,12400.0,11700.0,11800.0,11400.0,11900.0,12300.0,11000.0,11600.0,11100.0,11200.0,10800.0,11200.0,11100.0,10500.0,10600.0,10300.0,10700.0,11100.0,10000.0,10600.0,10200.0,10400.0,10000.0,10400.0,10300.0,9700.0,9800.0,9500.0,9900.0,10300.0,9500.0,9800.0,9500.0,9700.0,9300.0,9700.0,9600.0,9100.0,9200.0,8900.0,9300.0,9700.0,8800.0,9300.0,9000.0,9100.0,8700.0,9000.0,8900.0,8500.0,8600.0,8300.0,8600.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3100.0,2900.0,3200.0,3050.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2850.0,2950.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3150.0,2900.0,2750.0,2650.0,2550.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2750.0,2950.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2550.0,2750.0,2600.0,2450.0,2350.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2250.0,2350.0,2400.0,2350.0,2550.0,2450.0,2550.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,2950.0,3100.0,2950.0,2800.0,2750.0,2700.0,2800.0,3600.0,3100.0,2950.0,2900.0,2950.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,4600.0,3400.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2750.0,2850.0,2900.0,2950.0,2900.0,3050.0,2950.0,2800.0,2750.0,2700.0,2750.0,2700.0,2650.0,2750.0,2800.0,2900.0,2850.0,3200.0,3050.0,2950.0,3000.0,3050.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3350.0,3450.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3450.0,3550.0,3600.0,3650.0,3700.0,3750.0,4600.0,4100.0,3950.0,3900.0,4000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3384.0,3087.0,3121.0,2765.0,2823.0,2578.0,2689.0,2614.0,2932.0,2987.0,3224.0,3315.0,3245.0,2961.0,2938.0,2652.0,2704.0,2471.0,2583.0,2510.0,2819.0,2862.0,3108.0,3185.0,3132.0,2854.0,2812.0,2553.0,2592.0,2374.0,2471.0,2415.0,2702.0,2751.0,2985.0,3062.0,3002.0,2741.0,2695.0,2455.0,2481.0,2283.0,2362.0,2312.0,2585.0,4521.0,2872.0,2941.0,2855.0,2582.0,3124.0,2983.0,2854.0,2132.0,2256.0,2185.0,2452.0,2491.0,2705.0,2783.0,2721.0,2462.0,2455.0,2221.0,2263.0,2056.0,2141.0,2082.0,2325.0,2381.0,2575.0,2636.0,2592.0,2345.0,2321.0,2115.0,2146.0,1951.0,2031.0,1975.0,2211.0,2266.0,2441.0,2511.0,2375.0,2191.0,3892.0,2005.0,2028.0,1845.0,1922.0,1874.0,2093.0,2148.0,2315.0,2388.0,2305.0,2092.0,2085.0,1891.0,1922.0,1748.0,1815.0,1778.0,1975.0,2028.0,2185.0,2252.0,2168.0,1972.0,1961.0,1782.0,1805.0,1648.0,1712.0,1675.0,1862.0,1905.0,2062.0,2125.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2450.0,2230.0,2410.0,2180.0,2260.0,1990.0,2020.0,1970.0,2470.0,2280.0,2310.0,1980.0,2650.0,2420.0,2620.0,2380.0,2430.0,2150.0,2210.0,2160.0,2680.0,2470.0,2510.0,2130.0,2840.0,2570.0,2830.0,2520.0,2610.0,2330.0,2370.0,2350.0,2870.0,2640.0,2680.0,2280.0,3020.0,2740.0,2990.0,2690.0,2760.0,2480.0,2530.0,2500.0,3050.0,2810.0,2830.0,2440.0,3110.0,2870.0,3410.0,3720.0,3320.0,3290.0,3010.0,3310.0,3520.0,3290.0,3330.0,2930.0,3340.0,3080.0,3320.0,3020.0,3100.0,2800.0,2860.0,2840.0,3310.0,3070.0,3120.0,2750.0,3450.0,3180.0,3420.0,3130.0,3200.0,2900.0,2960.0,2940.0,3420.0,3180.0,3220.0,2860.0,3390.0,3130.0,3360.0,3070.0,3130.0,2840.0,2890.0,2880.0,3330.0,3120.0,3150.0,2790.0,3330.0,3070.0,3300.0,3010.0,3080.0,2790.0,2830.0,2820.0,3260.0,3050.0,3080.0,2730.0,3280.0,3020.0,3250.0,2960.0,3030.0,2740.0,2780.0,2770.0,3200.0,2990.0,3020.0,2680.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2380.0,2290.0,2240.0,2180.0,2110.0,2020.0,1980.0,2050.0,2220.0,2270.0,2310.0,2350.0,2540.0,2440.0,2400.0,2330.0,2260.0,2160.0,2120.0,2190.0,2370.0,2420.0,2470.0,2520.0,2700.0,2600.0,2550.0,2480.0,2400.0,2300.0,2250.0,2330.0,2530.0,2580.0,2630.0,2680.0,2860.0,2760.0,2700.0,2620.0,2540.0,2440.0,2390.0,2460.0,2680.0,2730.0,2780.0,2840.0,3020.0,2910.0,2860.0,2770.0,2690.0,2580.0,2520.0,2600.0,2830.0,2880.0,2940.0,3000.0,3240.0,3120.0,3060.0,2970.0,2880.0,2760.0,2700.0,2790.0,3030.0,3090.0,3150.0,3210.0,3080.0,2960.0,2910.0,2820.0,2740.0,2620.0,2570.0,2650.0,2880.0,2940.0,2990.0,3050.0,2860.0,2760.0,2700.0,2620.0,2540.0,2440.0,2390.0,2460.0,2680.0,2730.0,2780.0,2840.0,2680.0,2590.0,2560.0,2470.0,2410.0,2310.0,2240.0,2340.0,2520.0,2590.0,2620.0,2690.0,2530.0,2450.0,2390.0,2340.0,2250.0,2170.0,2110.0,2200.0,2360.0,2430.0,2460.0,2510.0],"meta/muse-ember":[295.0,340.0,355.0,365.0,315.0,235.0,225.0,255.0,350.0,385.0,340.0,275.0,315.0,325.0,380.0,340.0,330.0,250.0,215.0,270.0,375.0,360.0,365.0,290.0,300.0,310.0,345.0,355.0,300.0,240.0,230.0,245.0,340.0,355.0,335.0,265.0,290.0,335.0,360.0,330.0,315.0,225.0,240.0,260.0,365.0,350.0,345.0,270.0,305.0,320.0,410.0,395.0,340.0,260.0,250.0,270.0,380.0,370.0,355.0,285.0,285.0,300.0,340.0,350.0,310.0,235.0,220.0,250.0,345.0,360.0,330.0,260.0,275.0,315.0,330.0,320.0,295.0,230.0,215.0,240.0,330.0,345.0,320.0,255.0,270.0,295.0,325.0,315.0,285.0,220.0,210.0,235.0,320.0,335.0,310.0,245.0,260.0,285.0,310.0,305.0,275.0,215.0,200.0,225.0,310.0,320.0,300.0,240.0,250.0,270.0,300.0,290.0,265.0,200.0,195.0,215.0,295.0,305.0,285.0,230.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[460.0,480.0,540.0,530.0,500.0,430.0,400.0,420.0,663.0,1100.0,1728.0,495.0,478.0,499.0,562.0,551.0,520.0,447.0,416.0,480.0,689.0,572.0,562.0,447.0,515.0,538.0,605.0,594.0,560.0,482.0,448.0,470.0,594.0,986.0,1391.0,530.0,552.0,576.0,648.0,636.0,600.0,516.0,480.0,504.0,636.0,660.0,648.0,516.0,607.0,634.0,998.0,1049.0,792.0,624.0,528.0,554.0,1189.0,1960.0,2994.0,738.0,1224.0,806.0,756.0,742.0,700.0,602.0,560.0,588.0,742.0,770.0,756.0,602.0,616.0,643.0,724.0,710.0,670.0,576.0,536.0,563.0,710.0,1106.0,1520.0,634.0,589.0,614.0,691.0,678.0,640.0,550.0,512.0,538.0,678.0,1478.0,1244.0,660.0,607.0,634.0,713.0,700.0,660.0,568.0,528.0,554.0,1259.0,1960.0,2851.0,681.0,985.0,726.0,680.0,668.0,630.0,542.0,504.0,529.0,668.0,693.0,680.0,542.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2800.0,2600.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2200.0,2250.0,2500.0,2900.0,7200.0,4300.0,3800.0,2850.0,2700.0,2550.0,2400.0,2250.0,2050.0,2050.0,2250.0,2450.0,2500.0,2350.0,2500.0,2300.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0,1950.0,1800.0,1800.0,2000.0,2250.0,2550.0,2300.0,2250.0,2050.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1650.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2850.0,2200.0,2000.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1850.0,1700.0,1700.0,1850.0,2000.0,5000.0,2800.0,4300.0,2700.0,2450.0,2250.0,2100.0,1950.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,2050.0,2150.0,1950.0,2050.0,1850.0,2200.0,2050.0,1900.0,1750.0,1600.0,1600.0,1750.0,1900.0,2450.0,2050.0,1950.0,1750.0,1850.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1550.0,1700.0,1850.0,1650.0,1750.0,1550.0,1650.0,1500.0,1450.0,1350.0,1250.0,1250.0,1500.0,1950.0,4200.0,2600.0,2800.0,1600.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1350.0,1450.0,1550.0,1450.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[69.0,65.0,61.0,59.0,67.0,52.0,48.0,52.0,72.0,61.0,57.0,47.0,75.0,70.0,66.0,64.0,73.0,56.0,52.0,56.0,78.0,66.0,62.0,51.0,81.0,76.0,71.0,69.0,78.0,60.0,56.0,60.0,84.0,71.0,67.0,55.0,86.0,81.0,77.0,74.0,84.0,65.0,60.0,65.0,90.0,77.0,71.0,59.0,88.0,83.0,85.0,79.0,91.0,66.0,62.0,66.0,97.0,79.0,73.0,60.0,93.0,89.0,85.0,80.0,92.0,71.0,66.0,71.0,98.0,84.0,78.0,64.0,101.0,95.0,90.0,86.0,99.0,76.0,70.0,76.0,106.0,90.0,84.0,69.0,111.0,103.0,97.0,93.0,106.0,82.0,76.0,82.0,119.0,97.0,90.0,74.0,118.0,111.0,105.0,101.0,121.0,89.0,82.0,89.0,132.0,105.0,98.0,80.0,127.0,119.0,112.0,108.0,123.0,95.0,88.0,95.0,142.0,112.0,105.0,86.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[220.0,205.0,230.0,215.0,225.0,240.0,235.0,250.0,245.0,260.0,255.0,230.0,260.0,275.0,520.0,410.0,350.0,320.0,300.0,310.0,330.0,315.0,300.0,325.0,295.0,285.0,310.0,290.0,305.0,315.0,280.0,300.0,325.0,340.0,320.0,300.0,310.0,295.0,330.0,305.0,315.0,340.0,320.0,335.0,390.0,350.0,330.0,310.0,360.0,345.0,410.0,780.0,690.0,560.0,470.0,440.0,455.0,430.0,420.0,390.0,420.0,390.0,405.0,380.0,365.0,400.0,375.0,390.0,410.0,385.0,370.0,395.0,370.0,360.0,390.0,355.0,365.0,380.0,345.0,370.0,390.0,410.0,385.0,360.0,390.0,370.0,420.0,405.0,390.0,410.0,380.0,395.0,430.0,415.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,355.0,390.0,365.0,375.0,390.0,350.0,370.0,385.0,400.0,380.0,355.0,360.0,345.0,375.0,350.0,365.0,380.0,340.0,360.0,375.0,390.0,370.0,350.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[95.0,88.0,102.0,98.0,92.0,85.0,80.0,78.0,96.0,104.0,100.0,92.0,90.0,94.0,100.0,96.0,91.0,84.0,78.0,76.0,93.0,101.0,97.0,89.0,92.0,96.0,103.0,99.0,93.0,86.0,80.0,77.0,95.0,102.0,98.0,90.0,88.0,91.0,97.0,94.0,88.0,82.0,76.0,74.0,91.0,98.0,94.0,86.0,96.0,99.0,108.0,104.0,100.0,92.0,86.0,84.0,104.0,112.0,108.0,98.0,92.0,90.0,98.0,95.0,89.0,83.0,78.0,75.0,92.0,99.0,95.0,87.0,84.0,82.0,89.0,86.0,81.0,76.0,71.0,69.0,85.0,92.0,88.0,80.0,78.0,76.0,82.0,80.0,75.0,70.0,66.0,64.0,79.0,85.0,82.0,74.0,70.0,68.0,74.0,71.0,67.0,62.0,59.0,57.0,71.0,76.0,73.0,66.0,62.0,60.0,65.0,63.0,59.0,55.0,52.0,50.0,62.0,67.0,64.0,58.0]}},{"title":"Booker T (wrestler)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Booker T (wrestler)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[58559,69204,52319,60725,49057,44333,50952,67718,44814,49016,50169,55836,52646,45805,46154,62810,56712,40448,49708,51432,47480,44292,49376,40305,58173,55985,44915,52885,39547,31213,38993,50039,37721,37342,43283,33940,41502,40081,73136,107569,36254,33734,43659,43375,40061,39377,33214,32190,38257,38182,43667,57638,50669,39747,38640,38525,32795,34468,40257,47098,64633,61766,49894,55629,193886,58623,44712,45565,37577,37707,31766,31778,37939,54278,57851,71628,33954,31048,53052,44646,30216,40875,34462,51264,98649,69698,54974,57924,52547,41763,51278,54504,40390,43104,41056,53945,54618,59638,50249,62768,48848,45264,61198,44252,46518,56193,34035,34663,50001,46061,60478,51461,39933,32749,44843,47608,34895,30664,25319,33345],"flat_reference_value":16875.60736901165,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[58000.0,49000.0,53000.0,62000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,46000.0,65000.0,50000.0,54000.0,76000.0,65000.0,58000.0,62000.0,64000.0,54000.0,51000.0,50000.0,51000.0,70000.0,83000.0,57000.0,68000.0,52000.0,49000.0,51000.0,53000.0,48000.0,50000.0,49000.0,51000.0,72000.0,59000.0,72000.0,108000.0,60000.0,54000.0,68000.0,59000.0,52000.0,57000.0,60000.0,54000.0,73000.0,58000.0,59000.0,74000.0,62000.0,58000.0,57000.0,59000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,65000.0,190000.0,105000.0,85000.0,105000.0,70000.0,63000.0,65000.0,69000.0,59000.0,61000.0,60000.0,62000.0,82000.0,63000.0,67000.0,88000.0,61000.0,58000.0,62000.0,65000.0,58000.0,75000.0,65000.0,63000.0,175000.0,88000.0,72000.0,88000.0,65000.0,62000.0,66000.0,68000.0,61000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,85000.0,72000.0,70000.0,92000.0,66000.0,62000.0,67000.0,70000.0,62000.0,65000.0,63000.0,65000.0,80000.0,75000.0,72000.0,92000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0,63000.0,65000.0,64000.0,66000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[66000.0,56000.0,64000.0,74000.0,55000.0,53000.0,58000.0,60000.0,51000.0,52000.0,54000.0,96000.0,68000.0,56000.0,65000.0,82000.0,64000.0,61000.0,63000.0,67000.0,55000.0,54000.0,56000.0,53000.0,71000.0,57000.0,64000.0,78000.0,55000.0,52000.0,54000.0,58000.0,50000.0,53000.0,51000.0,49000.0,62000.0,84000.0,76000.0,98000.0,58000.0,53000.0,55000.0,57000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,66000.0,58000.0,63000.0,74000.0,68000.0,59000.0,57000.0,60000.0,53000.0,54000.0,98000.0,118000.0,255000.0,116000.0,82000.0,96000.0,162000.0,79000.0,64000.0,66000.0,56000.0,54000.0,53000.0,54000.0,68000.0,58000.0,74000.0,88000.0,58000.0,54000.0,59000.0,58000.0,52000.0,63000.0,55000.0,54000.0,114000.0,82000.0,68000.0,79000.0,59000.0,56000.0,58000.0,61000.0,55000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,74000.0,66000.0,73000.0,89000.0,62000.0,57000.0,58000.0,60000.0,53000.0,52000.0,51000.0,50000.0,69000.0,61000.0,64000.0,81000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,55000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[56200.0,49100.0,51800.0,65400.0,47200.0,44800.0,49300.0,52100.0,43900.0,42500.0,46100.0,44700.0,63400.0,47900.0,51200.0,64800.0,53600.0,48100.0,47500.0,52300.0,46800.0,45100.0,49200.0,46500.0,62100.0,51700.0,50400.0,66200.0,46300.0,43500.0,45800.0,49200.0,44100.0,48700.0,47300.0,45600.0,59400.0,52100.0,68300.0,96700.0,54200.0,50100.0,48600.0,53400.0,46200.0,47800.0,49500.0,46100.0,61200.0,49800.0,48300.0,57900.0,51400.0,46700.0,48200.0,50900.0,47100.0,48500.0,62400.0,89200.0,184500.0,88300.0,64700.0,71200.0,87600.0,54100.0,51300.0,53800.0,49700.0,48900.0,47200.0,46800.0,62500.0,50100.0,54900.0,65800.0,48700.0,46200.0,51400.0,53600.0,49300.0,67100.0,56400.0,54200.0,196800.0,83400.0,69200.0,82500.0,61700.0,56300.0,58900.0,62400.0,57800.0,64100.0,66900.0,63200.0,89400.0,72800.0,71500.0,88100.0,65300.0,59800.0,61200.0,63700.0,58400.0,62300.0,59100.0,56700.0,78400.0,61200.0,64500.0,79100.0,57300.0,53800.0,55200.0,58400.0,52900.0,54600.0,53100.0,51800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[82000.0,76000.0,80000.0,88000.0,74000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,66000.0,65000.0,64000.0,63000.0,68000.0,62000.0,66000.0,72000.0,62000.0,60000.0,61000.0,60000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,60000.0,55000.0,57000.0,62000.0,54000.0,52000.0,53000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,54000.0,56000.0,70000.0,95000.0,58000.0,52000.0,51000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,48000.0,47000.0,52000.0,49000.0,54000.0,60000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,49000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,47000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,41000.0,38000.0,40000.0,43000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,39000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[140000.0,125000.0,135000.0,145000.0,125000.0,120000.0,125000.0,130000.0,120000.0,118000.0,115000.0,135000.0,130000.0,115000.0,120000.0,130000.0,112000.0,110000.0,112000.0,118000.0,108000.0,105000.0,105000.0,105000.0,120000.0,105000.0,108000.0,120000.0,105000.0,100000.0,102000.0,105000.0,98000.0,98000.0,95000.0,95000.0,105000.0,98000.0,115000.0,150000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,98000.0,92000.0,95000.0,90000.0,88000.0,98000.0,90000.0,98000.0,115000.0,110000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,88000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,95000.0,85000.0,90000.0,98000.0,88000.0,85000.0,88000.0,90000.0,85000.0,82000.0,80000.0,80000.0,88000.0,80000.0,85000.0,92000.0,80000.0,78000.0,82000.0,85000.0,85000.0,105000.0,90000.0,88000.0,165000.0,105000.0,98000.0,105000.0,90000.0,88000.0,90000.0,92000.0,88000.0,88000.0,85000.0,85000.0,95000.0,88000.0,90000.0,100000.0,85000.0,85000.0,88000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,82000.0,82000.0,98000.0,88000.0,88000.0,95000.0,85000.0,82000.0,88000.0,88000.0,82000.0,80000.0,80000.0,80000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[36000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,29000.0,28000.0,35000.0,32000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,28000.0,25000.0,29000.0,31000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,27000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,25000.0,28000.0,35000.0,55000.0,25000.0,21000.0,30000.0,23000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,23000.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,18000.0,38000.0,24000.0,27000.0,28000.0,21000.0,19000.0,21000.0,23000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,27000.0,23000.0,26000.0,29000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,25000.0,22000.0,25000.0,27000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,24000.0,21000.0,24000.0,26000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,23000.0,20000.0,23000.0,24000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[25000.0,20000.0,28000.0,30000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,24000.0,19000.0,26000.0,28000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,16500.0,22000.0,17500.0,23000.0,26000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,15500.0,21000.0,17000.0,22000.0,38000.0,19000.0,17500.0,20000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17500.0,15000.0,20000.0,16500.0,18000.0,21000.0,15000.0,15500.0,15000.0,16000.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,14000.0,19000.0,15500.0,17000.0,20000.0,14500.0,14000.0,15000.0,15500.0,14000.0,14500.0,15000.0,13500.0,18000.0,14000.0,16500.0,19500.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,16000.0,15500.0,13000.0,55000.0,30000.0,20000.0,22000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,12500.0,18000.0,14000.0,16500.0,19000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,12000.0,17000.0,13500.0,16000.0,18500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,11500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[63400.0,55900.0,67200.0,93600.0,57900.0,49800.0,58700.0,62400.0,52600.0,50300.0,59100.0,46800.0,68200.0,59400.0,71800.0,97300.0,61700.0,53400.0,59600.0,68900.0,55800.0,53900.0,63500.0,50100.0,79800.0,65700.0,76400.0,104200.0,63100.0,59500.0,60800.0,76900.0,57200.0,59400.0,65300.0,53200.0,78900.0,75800.0,86400.0,228400.0,82600.0,62100.0,69300.0,74200.0,64900.0,62400.0,73800.0,58100.0,93100.0,81700.0,107400.0,131200.0,84900.0,73600.0,81300.0,95100.0,76800.0,73900.0,87200.0,68700.0,86400.0,81900.0,91200.0,134600.0,78500.0,73900.0,75600.0,88200.0,71000.0,73800.0,81100.0,66300.0,87600.0,76900.0,94100.0,128400.0,79700.0,69200.0,84300.0,82800.0,71900.0,77600.0,79100.0,64700.0,99800.0,84500.0,101400.0,141900.0,87700.0,76100.0,84200.0,98300.0,79400.0,76200.0,90100.0,71200.0,105800.0,82600.0,99100.0,145300.0,85600.0,74400.0,82300.0,96200.0,77500.0,85100.0,84900.0,69600.0,109200.0,87100.0,96800.0,139100.0,80700.0,75600.0,77400.0,99200.0,71100.0,73800.0,81300.0,66400.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[78000.0,68000.0,72000.0,82000.0,70000.0,64000.0,88000.0,74000.0,66000.0,64000.0,68000.0,58000.0,72000.0,58000.0,62000.0,76000.0,58000.0,54000.0,58000.0,62000.0,56000.0,54000.0,58000.0,52000.0,92000.0,58000.0,62000.0,120000.0,82000.0,56000.0,56000.0,62000.0,52000.0,52000.0,56000.0,50000.0,62000.0,48000.0,52000.0,62000.0,48000.0,46000.0,105000.0,68000.0,48000.0,58000.0,52000.0,46000.0,58000.0,44000.0,48000.0,52000.0,44000.0,40000.0,42000.0,46000.0,40000.0,40000.0,44000.0,40000.0,78000.0,46000.0,46000.0,56000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,46000.0,40000.0,40000.0,44000.0,40000.0,52000.0,40000.0,42000.0,52000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,68000.0,42000.0,44000.0,56000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,52000.0,36000.0,38000.0,56000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,46000.0,36000.0,38000.0,52000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,38000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[62000.0,74000.0,56000.0,61000.0,50000.0,47000.0,54000.0,51000.0,46000.0,44000.0,48000.0,42000.0,47000.0,43000.0,46000.0,50000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,45000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,39000.0,78000.0,86000.0,66000.0,73000.0,59000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,41000.0,46000.0,57000.0,52000.0,67000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,44000.0,52000.0,54000.0,48000.0,47000.0,43000.0,40000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,34000.0,60000.0,50000.0,46000.0,52000.0,43000.0,41000.0,48000.0,56000.0,65000.0,60000.0,57000.0,51000.0,54000.0,49000.0,51000.0,57000.0,47000.0,45000.0,49000.0,53000.0,50000.0,47000.0,49000.0,44000.0,51000.0,70000.0,49000.0,55000.0,47000.0,46000.0,49000.0,53000.0,49000.0,48000.0,49000.0,44000.0,52000.0,46000.0,51000.0,59000.0,46000.0,56000.0,49000.0,53000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,45000.0,54000.0,58000.0,52000.0,57000.0,47000.0,46000.0,49000.0,53000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,45000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[30400.0,24000.0,30800.0,42600.0,21600.0,20400.0,25000.0,29400.0,21600.0,22400.0,26200.0,19200.0,28300.0,22500.0,27000.0,38000.0,20300.0,19100.0,22500.0,26800.0,20300.0,20100.0,23600.0,18000.0,28700.0,21500.0,25800.0,35600.0,19400.0,18300.0,21500.0,25200.0,19400.0,18300.0,22600.0,17200.0,26100.0,20500.0,24600.0,37700.0,18500.0,17400.0,20500.0,24100.0,18500.0,17400.0,22500.0,16400.0,24500.0,19500.0,25400.0,34300.0,20100.0,18100.0,19500.0,23000.0,17600.0,16600.0,20500.0,15600.0,28300.0,22500.0,27000.0,40500.0,22300.0,19100.0,22500.0,26800.0,20300.0,21600.0,23600.0,19500.0,26100.0,21000.0,25200.0,34900.0,18900.0,17900.0,21000.0,24600.0,18900.0,17900.0,22100.0,16800.0,24500.0,19500.0,25900.0,32800.0,17600.0,18100.0,19500.0,23000.0,17600.0,16600.0,21500.0,15600.0,26600.0,20500.0,27100.0,35700.0,20000.0,17400.0,20500.0,24600.0,20000.0,17400.0,23500.0,17900.0,36700.0,29000.0,36400.0,55800.0,27300.0,24000.0,29000.0,32700.0,25300.0,24500.0,35400.0,26600.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6100.0,6250.0,7050.0,8750.0,6620.0,6040.0,6280.0,6150.0,6490.0,6720.0,6580.0,6040.0,6190.0,5980.0,6810.0,7980.0,6050.0,5560.0,5740.0,5680.0,6060.0,6320.0,6210.0,5640.0,5880.0,5700.0,6510.0,7460.0,5820.0,5480.0,5940.0,7560.0,8780.0,9310.0,8460.0,7520.0,8460.0,8240.0,12650.0,24780.0,13180.0,9160.0,8870.0,9120.0,9580.0,10120.0,10240.0,9180.0,9270.0,7440.0,7180.0,7640.0,6980.0,6510.0,6680.0,6810.0,7190.0,7810.0,7340.0,6760.0,7410.0,7040.0,7540.0,8310.0,7190.0,6830.0,6990.0,7280.0,7620.0,10580.0,8010.0,7160.0,7480.0,9140.0,12860.0,15180.0,9180.0,7720.0,8010.0,8460.0,8790.0,9320.0,8590.0,8010.0,7280.0,6620.0,7280.0,8640.0,6750.0,6180.0,6380.0,6590.0,6920.0,7340.0,6950.0,6310.0,7380.0,6470.0,7250.0,8320.0,6620.0,6100.0,6280.0,6590.0,6920.0,7380.0,7040.0,6430.0,6510.0,5960.0,6680.0,7750.0,6160.0,5680.0,5890.0,6200.0,6540.0,6930.0,6600.0,6050.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[78000.0,70000.0,76000.0,80000.0,68000.0,64000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,61000.0,60000.0,64000.0,60000.0,64000.0,68000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,56000.0,55000.0,60000.0,55000.0,58000.0,63000.0,55000.0,53000.0,53000.0,52000.0,51000.0,51000.0,52000.0,51000.0,56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,60000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,49000.0,50000.0,50000.0,49000.0,53000.0,50000.0,54000.0,60000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,47000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,58000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,47000.0,46000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48000.0,54000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,48000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,43000.0,40000.0,42000.0,46000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,42000.0,39000.0,42000.0,46000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[13200.0,12600.0,12900.0,13500.0,12300.0,12700.0,13800.0,12100.0,11800.0,12400.0,11700.0,12500.0,13400.0,12900.0,13700.0,15200.0,14300.0,14900.0,14100.0,13500.0,13100.0,13800.0,12800.0,13600.0,13000.0,12500.0,13200.0,14700.0,13300.0,13600.0,13000.0,12700.0,12200.0,12900.0,12400.0,13000.0,14000.0,13400.0,14800.0,84000.0,31000.0,17000.0,15200.0,14700.0,14400.0,14600.0,14000.0,14300.0,14700.0,14100.0,16000.0,23000.0,17500.0,15300.0,14800.0,15600.0,14900.0,14400.0,13900.0,14800.0,15200.0,14700.0,16200.0,27000.0,19000.0,16500.0,34000.0,21000.0,16900.0,16100.0,15400.0,16200.0,16800.0,16100.0,17600.0,19200.0,16700.0,15900.0,24000.0,49000.0,28000.0,19000.0,16500.0,17200.0,56000.0,37000.0,29000.0,41000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26500.0,27500.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30500.0,29000.0,30000.0,45000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28500.0,29500.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31500.0,32000.0,30000.0,30500.0,42000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28500.0,29000.0,30000.0,28500.0,30500.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[6900.0,6400.0,7600.0,10500.0,7200.0,6500.0,6700.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,7200.0,6200.0,6100.0,5700.0,6500.0,8300.0,6300.0,5800.0,5900.0,5700.0,5600.0,5800.0,6400.0,5400.0,8500.0,5900.0,6500.0,8000.0,6100.0,5600.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5600.0,6200.0,5200.0,5600.0,5200.0,6000.0,7400.0,5700.0,5200.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,5200.0,5800.0,4900.0,5300.0,5000.0,6100.0,6900.0,5600.0,5100.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5600.0,4700.0,5000.0,4700.0,5500.0,6900.0,5200.0,4700.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4800.0,5300.0,4500.0,4800.0,4500.0,5300.0,6500.0,5000.0,4600.0,4700.0,5400.0,8500.0,6000.0,5600.0,4900.0,8500.0,5400.0,6100.0,7400.0,5600.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,5500.0,4600.0,4900.0,4600.0,5400.0,6700.0,5100.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,5200.0,4400.0,4700.0,4400.0,5200.0,6400.0,4900.0,4400.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,5000.0,4200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4200.0,3900.0,4000.0,4600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3300.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2800.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,2700.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2900.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2800.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0]}},{"title":"Gnutella","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Gnutella\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[7835,8160,8234,7596,7542,6710,6238,6735,6738,7564,7500,6395,7138,7185,6432,6431,6300,5221,7551,6092,6140,6524,6684,6604,7120,7055,6871,6866,6168,6281,6229,5991,5825,7651,6138,5991,6628,6079,6198,5520,6796,5124,4827,5120,4679,5370,5889,4996,5113,5330,4968,6252,4996,4950,5506,4561,4216,4798,4939,4755,5493,4927,5275,4868,6306,4160,4431,4412,4164,4695,4307,4576,5083,4393,4725,3956,4097,3780,3847,3861,3326,4180,4301,3848,4252,3915,3841,3694,3756,4017,3726,3631,6242,4578,4188,3779,4001,4235,4145,4681,4178,3509,3210,3693,3687,4151,3200,3488,3897,3210,3663,2794,2940,2412,2687,2961,3104,3125,5709,3584],"flat_reference_value":17070.065164108008,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[5100.0,4900.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,4800.0,5200.0,5500.0,5300.0,4900.0,4800.0,4400.0,5000.0,4700.0,4900.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4700.0,5100.0,4900.0,4500.0,4300.0,3900.0,4500.0,4200.0,4400.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,4000.0,4000.0,3700.0,4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,6200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,4000.0,3600.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4100.0,3900.0,3600.0,3600.0,3300.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3300.0,3300.0,3000.0,3400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,2800.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3300.0,3100.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,5000.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[8420.0,8850.0,9340.0,9180.0,8510.0,7240.0,6890.0,7050.0,8190.0,9120.0,8960.0,7630.0,7840.0,8150.0,8720.0,8490.0,7910.0,6680.0,6350.0,6490.0,7540.0,8380.0,8210.0,6980.0,7190.0,7420.0,7960.0,7780.0,7230.0,6120.0,5840.0,5970.0,6890.0,7650.0,7480.0,6390.0,6610.0,6830.0,7340.0,7150.0,6680.0,5640.0,5410.0,5530.0,6380.0,7090.0,6920.0,5940.0,6180.0,6390.0,8350.0,7120.0,6590.0,5580.0,5320.0,5460.0,6150.0,6780.0,6610.0,5720.0,5890.0,6040.0,6520.0,6380.0,5910.0,4980.0,4790.0,4910.0,5620.0,6240.0,6080.0,5230.0,5410.0,5560.0,7280.0,6190.0,6050.0,4680.0,4490.0,4610.0,5240.0,5790.0,5610.0,4780.0,4920.0,4980.0,5360.0,5140.0,4720.0,3980.0,3840.0,3910.0,4430.0,4890.0,4740.0,4050.0,4180.0,4260.0,4590.0,4450.0,4080.0,3460.0,3340.0,3410.0,3870.0,4290.0,4150.0,3560.0,3680.0,3740.0,4060.0,3940.0,3620.0,3090.0,2980.0,3040.0,3450.0,3820.0,3690.0,3180.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[14850.0,16900.0,18250.0,17800.0,15100.0,12400.0,11800.0,12250.0,15300.0,18100.0,18650.0,13900.0,14100.0,15800.0,17350.0,16900.0,14200.0,11600.0,10950.0,11500.0,14300.0,16800.0,17150.0,12800.0,12900.0,14500.0,15900.0,15400.0,12800.0,10400.0,9950.0,10300.0,12950.0,15200.0,15500.0,11700.0,11850.0,13200.0,14650.0,13900.0,11750.0,9400.0,8900.0,9350.0,11800.0,13700.0,14100.0,10400.0,10600.0,12100.0,12900.0,12550.0,10600.0,8700.0,8300.0,8800.0,11100.0,12800.0,13150.0,9700.0,9850.0,11100.0,12300.0,11950.0,9900.0,7950.0,7500.0,7900.0,9950.0,11600.0,11900.0,8800.0,8900.0,10100.0,12400.0,11800.0,9400.0,7500.0,7100.0,7450.0,9300.0,10800.0,11050.0,8100.0,8200.0,9250.0,10400.0,9950.0,8300.0,6650.0,6300.0,6700.0,8400.0,9800.0,10050.0,7350.0,7450.0,8450.0,9500.0,9100.0,7650.0,6100.0,5750.0,6150.0,7700.0,8950.0,9200.0,6700.0,6800.0,7750.0,8700.0,8300.0,7000.0,5600.0,5250.0,5600.0,7050.0,8200.0,8450.0,6150.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[13800.0,13900.0,14200.0,13600.0,12900.0,12100.0,11900.0,12000.0,12800.0,13300.0,13100.0,11700.0,12600.0,12700.0,12900.0,12300.0,11800.0,11000.0,10800.0,10900.0,11500.0,11900.0,11700.0,10400.0,11200.0,11100.0,11300.0,10800.0,10300.0,9600.0,9400.0,9500.0,10000.0,10400.0,10200.0,9100.0,9700.0,9600.0,9800.0,9400.0,9000.0,8400.0,8200.0,8300.0,8700.0,9000.0,8800.0,7900.0,8500.0,8400.0,8900.0,9200.0,8700.0,7900.0,7700.0,7600.0,7900.0,8100.0,7900.0,7200.0,7600.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7000.0,6600.0,6500.0,6500.0,6800.0,7000.0,6900.0,6300.0,6700.0,6600.0,6900.0,6500.0,6300.0,5900.0,5800.0,5800.0,6100.0,6200.0,6100.0,5600.0,6000.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,5600.0,5300.0,5200.0,5200.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5000.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,4500.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4100.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[10500.0,10000.0,10300.0,9800.0,9600.0,8800.0,8500.0,8600.0,9000.0,9500.0,9600.0,8900.0,9500.0,9000.0,9400.0,8900.0,8900.0,8000.0,7800.0,7800.0,8100.0,8600.0,8700.0,8000.0,8600.0,8000.0,8400.0,8000.0,7900.0,7100.0,7000.0,7000.0,7200.0,7700.0,7700.0,7100.0,7600.0,7100.0,7400.0,7100.0,7000.0,6400.0,6300.0,6300.0,6500.0,6900.0,6900.0,6400.0,6900.0,6500.0,6900.0,7400.0,7300.0,6600.0,6300.0,6200.0,6300.0,6600.0,6600.0,6300.0,6600.0,6100.0,6400.0,6100.0,6000.0,5500.0,5400.0,5400.0,5500.0,5800.0,5800.0,5400.0,5800.0,5400.0,5700.0,5400.0,5400.0,5000.0,4900.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,5300.0,5000.0,5400.0,5000.0,5300.0,5100.0,5100.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,5000.0,5000.0,4700.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4800.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4700.0,4700.0,4500.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[11860.0,12490.0,14690.0,12160.0,11970.0,11570.0,11000.0,11750.0,12320.0,15460.0,11890.0,11080.0,12090.0,27300.0,18720.0,12000.0,11800.0,11350.0,11020.0,11580.0,12100.0,11920.0,11700.0,10780.0,11250.0,10930.0,12900.0,11080.0,10910.0,10470.0,10280.0,10630.0,11130.0,11190.0,10870.0,10040.0,10340.0,10060.0,11800.0,10150.0,10000.0,9650.0,9440.0,9760.0,10220.0,10280.0,9960.0,9200.0,9430.0,9150.0,10600.0,9780.0,9630.0,8840.0,8650.0,8920.0,9370.0,9310.0,9110.0,8400.0,8610.0,8370.0,9880.0,8530.0,8410.0,8030.0,7880.0,8180.0,8540.0,8590.0,8290.0,7700.0,7940.0,7790.0,14690.0,9830.0,7810.0,7460.0,7290.0,7550.0,7960.0,7880.0,7670.0,7120.0,7420.0,7270.0,8780.0,7360.0,7290.0,6940.0,6840.0,7050.0,9620.0,7370.0,7200.0,6660.0,6880.0,6770.0,7810.0,6840.0,6750.0,6510.0,6370.0,6580.0,6900.0,6840.0,6680.0,6160.0,6400.0,6250.0,7200.0,6320.0,6230.0,5990.0,5860.0,6060.0,6380.0,6320.0,6190.0,5750.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[5730.0,4715.0,5565.0,5125.0,5380.0,4775.0,4610.0,4605.0,5415.0,5725.0,5290.0,4520.0,5110.0,4280.0,4975.0,4655.0,4830.0,4330.0,4155.0,4205.0,4845.0,5120.0,4805.0,4120.0,4625.0,3870.0,4490.0,4210.0,4375.0,3920.0,3760.0,3805.0,4360.0,4620.0,4345.0,3745.0,4180.0,3510.0,4065.0,3820.0,3955.0,3550.0,3405.0,3440.0,3945.0,4190.0,3930.0,3390.0,3960.0,3330.0,3950.0,4250.0,4280.0,3355.0,3230.0,3265.0,3740.0,3975.0,3735.0,3220.0,3585.0,3010.0,3485.0,3275.0,3390.0,3040.0,2915.0,2950.0,3385.0,3595.0,3370.0,2905.0,3620.0,3065.0,7850.0,5920.0,3980.0,3085.0,2965.0,3000.0,3440.0,3650.0,3425.0,2950.0,3260.0,2735.0,3170.0,2980.0,3085.0,2765.0,2655.0,2685.0,3080.0,3265.0,3060.0,2640.0,3045.0,2555.0,2960.0,2780.0,2875.0,2580.0,2475.0,2505.0,2875.0,3045.0,2860.0,2465.0,2825.0,2370.0,2745.0,2580.0,2670.0,2395.0,2298.0,2325.0,2670.0,2830.0,2655.0,2290.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[17400.0,16900.0,17150.0,16100.0,15400.0,14550.0,13900.0,14650.0,15750.0,16450.0,16150.0,15250.0,16750.0,16050.0,16450.0,15450.0,14950.0,13950.0,13350.0,14050.0,15150.0,15850.0,15450.0,14550.0,16450.0,15850.0,17200.0,16100.0,15000.0,13750.0,13250.0,13850.0,14950.0,15650.0,15350.0,14350.0,16050.0,15450.0,15850.0,14850.0,14350.0,13450.0,12850.0,13450.0,14550.0,15250.0,14850.0,14050.0,17350.0,16750.0,20500.0,19000.0,17350.0,15750.0,14650.0,14850.0,15950.0,16450.0,16150.0,15250.0,16350.0,15650.0,15950.0,15150.0,14450.0,13650.0,13050.0,13550.0,14750.0,15350.0,15050.0,14250.0,15350.0,14850.0,16350.0,15450.0,14350.0,13250.0,12350.0,12850.0,14050.0,14550.0,14250.0,13450.0,15150.0,14650.0,15850.0,14850.0,13950.0,12950.0,12150.0,12650.0,13850.0,14350.0,14050.0,13250.0,14350.0,13850.0,14050.0,13350.0,12750.0,11950.0,11450.0,11950.0,13050.0,13550.0,13350.0,12550.0,13450.0,12950.0,13250.0,12450.0,12050.0,11250.0,10750.0,11250.0,12250.0,12750.0,12450.0,11750.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4360.0,4150.0,4140.0,4030.0,3900.0,3690.0,3560.0,3650.0,4070.0,4140.0,4290.0,3900.0,4070.0,3930.0,3890.0,3770.0,3670.0,3470.0,3350.0,3430.0,3810.0,3890.0,4010.0,3720.0,3790.0,3660.0,3630.0,3510.0,3420.0,3240.0,3130.0,3200.0,3560.0,3620.0,3740.0,3480.0,3530.0,3400.0,3360.0,3260.0,3180.0,3000.0,2910.0,2970.0,3300.0,3370.0,3470.0,3230.0,3370.0,3250.0,3200.0,3560.0,3340.0,2860.0,2760.0,2830.0,3150.0,3210.0,3320.0,3080.0,3100.0,2980.0,2950.0,2860.0,2780.0,2630.0,2550.0,2600.0,2900.0,2950.0,3040.0,2830.0,2830.0,2720.0,2690.0,2610.0,2540.0,2400.0,2320.0,2380.0,2650.0,2690.0,2780.0,2580.0,2610.0,2510.0,2480.0,2410.0,2340.0,2210.0,2140.0,2190.0,2440.0,2490.0,2560.0,2380.0,2400.0,2300.0,2280.0,2210.0,2150.0,2030.0,1960.0,2010.0,2240.0,2280.0,2350.0,2180.0,2180.0,2090.0,2070.0,2010.0,1950.0,1840.0,1780.0,1830.0,2040.0,2070.0,2140.0,1980.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1908.0,1838.0,1855.0,1768.0,1698.0,1610.0,1558.0,1628.0,1803.0,1855.0,1873.0,1645.0,1809.0,1743.0,1760.0,1677.0,1610.0,1527.0,1477.0,1544.0,1710.0,1760.0,1776.0,1560.0,1722.0,1659.0,1675.0,1596.0,1533.0,1454.0,1406.0,1469.0,1627.0,1675.0,1691.0,1485.0,1635.0,1575.0,1590.0,1515.0,1455.0,1380.0,1335.0,1395.0,1545.0,1590.0,1605.0,1410.0,1559.0,1502.0,2047.0,1444.0,1387.0,1316.0,1273.0,1330.0,1473.0,1516.0,1530.0,1344.0,1482.0,1428.0,1442.0,1374.0,1319.0,1251.0,1210.0,1265.0,1401.0,1442.0,1455.0,1278.0,1406.0,1355.0,1367.0,1629.0,1376.0,1187.0,1148.0,1200.0,1329.0,1367.0,1380.0,1213.0,1341.0,1292.0,1304.0,1242.0,1193.0,1132.0,1095.0,1144.0,1267.0,1304.0,1316.0,1156.0,1275.0,1229.0,1240.0,1182.0,1135.0,1076.0,1041.0,1088.0,1205.0,1240.0,1252.0,1100.0,1210.0,1166.0,1530.0,1121.0,1077.0,1021.0,988.0,1032.0,1143.0,1177.0,1188.0,1043.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[8540.0,8700.0,8880.0,8480.0,8120.0,7460.0,7050.0,7300.0,8960.0,8790.0,8540.0,7630.0,8230.0,8390.0,8550.0,8150.0,7830.0,7190.0,6790.0,7030.0,8630.0,8470.0,8230.0,7350.0,7910.0,8070.0,8220.0,7840.0,7530.0,6910.0,6530.0,6770.0,8300.0,8140.0,7910.0,7070.0,7650.0,7800.0,7950.0,7580.0,7280.0,6690.0,6320.0,6550.0,8030.0,7530.0,7650.0,6840.0,7910.0,8070.0,9700.0,10350.0,9410.0,7460.0,6790.0,6900.0,8300.0,8140.0,7910.0,7070.0,8010.0,8170.0,8320.0,7940.0,7630.0,6990.0,6600.0,6840.0,8410.0,8250.0,8010.0,7170.0,7500.0,7640.0,7780.0,7800.0,9270.0,7340.0,6400.0,6410.0,7850.0,7700.0,7500.0,6710.0,6770.0,6900.0,7030.0,6700.0,6440.0,5910.0,5590.0,5790.0,7090.0,6970.0,6770.0,6050.0,6200.0,6320.0,6440.0,6140.0,5890.0,5410.0,5110.0,5290.0,6500.0,6380.0,6200.0,5530.0,5570.0,5680.0,5790.0,5520.0,5300.0,4870.0,4600.0,4760.0,5840.0,5730.0,5570.0,4980.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[40370.0,37720.0,41140.0,38580.0,37460.0,38860.0,37190.0,35890.0,38730.0,37870.0,38770.0,34500.0,37820.0,35380.0,38350.0,36100.0,35280.0,36520.0,35100.0,33850.0,36350.0,35700.0,36520.0,32360.0,33780.0,31720.0,34380.0,32420.0,31660.0,32680.0,31570.0,30450.0,32730.0,32220.0,32890.0,29080.0,32500.0,30600.0,33100.0,31150.0,30500.0,31450.0,30300.0,29250.0,31450.0,31050.0,31750.0,28100.0,32000.0,30250.0,39000.0,40500.0,37800.0,36150.0,34350.0,32750.0,35150.0,34350.0,35000.0,30950.0,31500.0,29500.0,34700.0,30700.0,30100.0,31100.0,29900.0,28800.0,31100.0,30600.0,31300.0,27700.0,28700.0,26900.0,29800.0,27300.0,26700.0,27600.0,26600.0,25600.0,27500.0,27000.0,27700.0,24600.0,27800.0,26000.0,30200.0,26900.0,26300.0,27100.0,26200.0,25100.0,27000.0,26600.0,27200.0,24200.0,27500.0,25700.0,29200.0,27300.0,26700.0,27500.0,26500.0,25400.0,28200.0,27700.0,28300.0,25100.0,28400.0,26600.0,34500.0,29300.0,28600.0,29400.0,28300.0,27100.0,29100.0,28600.0,29300.0,26000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,2600.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2500.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2200.0,2500.0,2500.0,2800.0,2900.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1600.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1500.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1743.0,1652.0,1834.0,1789.0,1716.0,1647.0,1539.0,1484.0,1907.0,1966.0,1833.0,1713.0,1689.0,1618.0,1776.0,1739.0,1652.0,1603.0,1495.0,1426.0,1862.0,1917.0,1778.0,1672.0,1658.0,1552.0,1747.0,1676.0,1623.0,1555.0,1457.0,1383.0,1815.0,1872.0,1727.0,1608.0,1609.0,1527.0,1676.0,1642.0,1559.0,1532.0,1414.0,1346.0,1757.0,1808.0,1671.0,1579.0,1511.0,1938.0,2167.0,1876.0,1612.0,1482.0,1378.0,1327.0,1696.0,1745.0,1598.0,1498.0,1402.0,1341.0,1486.0,1429.0,1371.0,1328.0,1248.0,1198.0,1551.0,1593.0,1483.0,1389.0,1345.0,1265.0,1419.0,1358.0,1304.0,1261.0,1184.0,1126.0,1478.0,1519.0,1412.0,1320.0,1258.0,1207.0,1319.0,1293.0,1228.0,1190.0,1113.0,1059.0,1392.0,1426.0,1334.0,1242.0,1220.0,1142.0,1286.0,1231.0,1195.0,1146.0,1076.0,1018.0,1339.0,1372.0,1281.0,1199.0,1152.0,2083.0,1724.0,1258.0,1176.0,1112.0,1028.0,987.0,1276.0,1318.0,1233.0,1149.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1080.0,1010.0,1120.0,1040.0,1030.0,980.0,930.0,960.0,890.0,930.0,900.0,780.0,920.0,900.0,980.0,890.0,870.0,850.0,810.0,840.0,790.0,820.0,780.0,700.0,830.0,810.0,900.0,820.0,790.0,780.0,730.0,760.0,710.0,760.0,720.0,650.0,790.0,760.0,820.0,770.0,740.0,720.0,690.0,710.0,680.0,710.0,670.0,610.0,760.0,740.0,850.0,980.0,1020.0,990.0,940.0,950.0,900.0,920.0,870.0,760.0,890.0,850.0,920.0,870.0,850.0,830.0,800.0,820.0,780.0,810.0,790.0,720.0,820.0,780.0,850.0,820.0,850.0,800.0,770.0,790.0,760.0,800.0,760.0,700.0,770.0,740.0,800.0,750.0,730.0,710.0,680.0,700.0,660.0,690.0,650.0,600.0,720.0,690.0,760.0,710.0,690.0,670.0,640.0,660.0,620.0,650.0,610.0,570.0,670.0,650.0,710.0,670.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,610.0,580.0,610.0,570.0,530.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3520.0,3520.0,3460.0,3330.0,3260.0,2940.0,2720.0,3040.0,3460.0,3520.0,3390.0,2820.0,3300.0,3300.0,3240.0,3120.0,3060.0,2760.0,2550.0,2850.0,3240.0,3300.0,3180.0,2640.0,3190.0,3190.0,3130.0,3020.0,2960.0,2670.0,2470.0,2760.0,3130.0,3190.0,3070.0,2550.0,2970.0,2970.0,2920.0,2810.0,2750.0,2480.0,2300.0,2570.0,2920.0,2970.0,2860.0,2380.0,3080.0,3080.0,3100.0,3000.0,2880.0,2580.0,2380.0,2660.0,3020.0,3080.0,2970.0,2460.0,2860.0,2860.0,2810.0,2700.0,2650.0,2390.0,2210.0,2470.0,2810.0,2860.0,2760.0,2290.0,2750.0,2750.0,2700.0,2600.0,2550.0,2300.0,2130.0,2380.0,2700.0,2750.0,2650.0,2200.0,2530.0,2530.0,2480.0,2390.0,2350.0,2120.0,1960.0,2190.0,2480.0,2530.0,2440.0,2020.0,2310.0,2310.0,2270.0,2180.0,2140.0,1930.0,1790.0,2000.0,2270.0,2310.0,2230.0,1850.0,1980.0,1980.0,1940.0,1870.0,1840.0,1660.0,1530.0,1710.0,1940.0,1980.0,1910.0,1580.0]}},{"title":"John F. Kennedy International Airport","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"John F. Kennedy International Airport\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[73214,67008,72037,74171,77199,71169,73055,75500,69323,68251,64918,73621,89196,69471,74470,69479,68307,65606,73888,72737,62616,66804,63549,65659,87872,67537,75497,73131,80285,72624,78789,83117,74507,79420,70084,71669,81270,71189,89440,69504,73835,69458,82210,84204,72412,73329,71507,73862,83818,71788,72302,67462,57897,46463,49198,48252,44619,48452,50162,53865,55959,51070,57611,57732,60010,56190,62340,63342,60708,59327,60191,61890,65914,63128,62638,62326,66711,69832,78475,78901,73631,71859,70930,73234,81191,72830,82328,80596,80862,83211,89601,87725,83354,79335,82970,88318,95482,79547,84272,81105,79757,79089,80851,81716,78934,77111,75931,80725,86799,70806,71754,69549,79037,78702,77005,76494,65522,67659,66240,65402],"flat_reference_value":16839.34474002617,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[68000.0,63000.0,70000.0,68000.0,72000.0,79000.0,85000.0,112000.0,73000.0,71000.0,68000.0,75000.0,74000.0,68000.0,76000.0,74000.0,79000.0,85000.0,91000.0,89000.0,78000.0,76000.0,73000.0,81000.0,135000.0,75000.0,84000.0,81000.0,86000.0,93000.0,101000.0,97000.0,84000.0,82000.0,79000.0,87000.0,86000.0,77000.0,85000.0,83000.0,88000.0,95000.0,103000.0,99000.0,85000.0,83000.0,80000.0,89000.0,87000.0,80000.0,92000.0,52000.0,48000.0,52000.0,57000.0,59000.0,56000.0,57000.0,58000.0,65000.0,62000.0,58000.0,65000.0,67000.0,72000.0,79000.0,86000.0,83000.0,75000.0,76000.0,74000.0,84000.0,79000.0,74000.0,83000.0,85000.0,91000.0,99000.0,108000.0,104000.0,91000.0,89000.0,86000.0,100000.0,112000.0,110000.0,94000.0,93000.0,99000.0,107000.0,116000.0,112000.0,103000.0,96000.0,92000.0,101000.0,99000.0,91000.0,100000.0,98000.0,104000.0,113000.0,125000.0,119000.0,104000.0,101000.0,97000.0,106000.0,108000.0,97000.0,105000.0,103000.0,110000.0,118000.0,128000.0,123000.0,107000.0,104000.0,100000.0,110000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[92000.0,81000.0,88000.0,85000.0,91000.0,98000.0,106000.0,124000.0,87000.0,86000.0,89000.0,95000.0,148000.0,96000.0,91000.0,88000.0,93000.0,100000.0,107000.0,104000.0,88000.0,87000.0,90000.0,96000.0,138000.0,84000.0,92000.0,89000.0,94000.0,101000.0,108000.0,105000.0,88000.0,95000.0,89000.0,94000.0,93000.0,82000.0,91000.0,89000.0,112000.0,102000.0,107000.0,104000.0,89000.0,88000.0,89000.0,96000.0,94000.0,83000.0,97000.0,48000.0,46000.0,49000.0,54000.0,55000.0,49000.0,50000.0,52000.0,57000.0,56000.0,51000.0,61000.0,64000.0,71000.0,79000.0,86000.0,84000.0,73000.0,76000.0,87000.0,88000.0,82000.0,74000.0,85000.0,86000.0,91000.0,98000.0,103000.0,99000.0,85000.0,86000.0,84000.0,93000.0,108000.0,103000.0,89000.0,86000.0,90000.0,96000.0,101000.0,98000.0,84000.0,83000.0,84000.0,89000.0,86000.0,78000.0,84000.0,82000.0,87000.0,92000.0,97000.0,95000.0,81000.0,80000.0,81000.0,87000.0,84000.0,74000.0,81000.0,79000.0,84000.0,89000.0,94000.0,91000.0,78000.0,77000.0,79000.0,85000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[135000.0,121000.0,132000.0,128000.0,136000.0,146000.0,156000.0,153000.0,131000.0,133000.0,130000.0,142000.0,224000.0,154000.0,136000.0,131000.0,139000.0,149000.0,159000.0,155000.0,132000.0,135000.0,133000.0,146000.0,188000.0,126000.0,139000.0,133000.0,141000.0,151000.0,163000.0,159000.0,136000.0,139000.0,135000.0,149000.0,143000.0,126000.0,141000.0,137000.0,145000.0,155000.0,166000.0,161000.0,139000.0,141000.0,137000.0,151000.0,146000.0,133000.0,178000.0,86000.0,83000.0,96000.0,106000.0,103000.0,99000.0,105000.0,109000.0,116000.0,113000.0,106000.0,123000.0,126000.0,133000.0,143000.0,151000.0,147000.0,131000.0,136000.0,143000.0,146000.0,129000.0,121000.0,139000.0,141000.0,149000.0,159000.0,169000.0,165000.0,143000.0,146000.0,143000.0,155000.0,176000.0,133000.0,146000.0,143000.0,151000.0,163000.0,173000.0,169000.0,147000.0,149000.0,146000.0,159000.0,149000.0,136000.0,149000.0,146000.0,153000.0,166000.0,176000.0,171000.0,149000.0,151000.0,147000.0,161000.0,151000.0,137000.0,151000.0,147000.0,155000.0,167000.0,177000.0,173000.0,150000.0,153000.0,149000.0,163000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[118000.0,108000.0,115000.0,112000.0,116000.0,122000.0,128000.0,126000.0,112000.0,110000.0,108000.0,117000.0,165000.0,128000.0,112000.0,110000.0,112000.0,118000.0,124000.0,122000.0,108000.0,106000.0,104000.0,112000.0,132000.0,102000.0,106000.0,102000.0,104000.0,110000.0,116000.0,114000.0,100000.0,99000.0,97000.0,104000.0,102000.0,92000.0,98000.0,96000.0,98000.0,104000.0,110000.0,108000.0,95000.0,94000.0,92000.0,99000.0,98000.0,90000.0,92000.0,55000.0,56000.0,60000.0,64000.0,65000.0,60000.0,61000.0,60000.0,65000.0,63000.0,60000.0,68000.0,70000.0,74000.0,80000.0,86000.0,84000.0,76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,85000.0,82000.0,76000.0,84000.0,86000.0,88000.0,94000.0,98000.0,95000.0,86000.0,85000.0,84000.0,90000.0,88000.0,80000.0,86000.0,85000.0,87000.0,92000.0,96000.0,94000.0,84000.0,83000.0,82000.0,88000.0,85000.0,77000.0,82000.0,80000.0,82000.0,86000.0,90000.0,88000.0,78000.0,77000.0,76000.0,82000.0,79000.0,71000.0,75000.0,73000.0,75000.0,78000.0,82000.0,80000.0,71000.0,70000.0,69000.0,74000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[128000.0,120000.0,126000.0,122000.0,126000.0,130000.0,138000.0,150000.0,126000.0,124000.0,122000.0,130000.0,150000.0,125000.0,124000.0,120000.0,122000.0,124000.0,130000.0,130000.0,118000.0,116000.0,114000.0,122000.0,138000.0,112000.0,116000.0,112000.0,114000.0,116000.0,122000.0,122000.0,110000.0,110000.0,106000.0,114000.0,114000.0,102000.0,108000.0,106000.0,108000.0,110000.0,116000.0,116000.0,104000.0,104000.0,100000.0,108000.0,108000.0,95000.0,82000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,68000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,68000.0,74000.0,76000.0,70000.0,78000.0,78000.0,82000.0,86000.0,92000.0,92000.0,84000.0,84000.0,86000.0,92000.0,90000.0,82000.0,88000.0,88000.0,90000.0,92000.0,98000.0,96000.0,88000.0,88000.0,86000.0,94000.0,104000.0,86000.0,90000.0,88000.0,90000.0,92000.0,96000.0,94000.0,86000.0,86000.0,84000.0,90000.0,90000.0,82000.0,86000.0,84000.0,86000.0,88000.0,92000.0,90000.0,82000.0,82000.0,80000.0,86000.0,88000.0,78000.0,82000.0,80000.0,82000.0,84000.0,86000.0,84000.0,78000.0,78000.0,78000.0,82000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[220000.0,198000.0,205000.0,208000.0,222000.0,245000.0,258000.0,255000.0,220000.0,215000.0,210000.0,232000.0,650000.0,255000.0,222000.0,215000.0,225000.0,248000.0,262000.0,258000.0,224000.0,218000.0,242000.0,243000.0,228000.0,204000.0,216000.0,218000.0,226000.0,250000.0,260000.0,256000.0,222000.0,216000.0,240000.0,246000.0,232000.0,206000.0,217000.0,220000.0,231000.0,252000.0,263000.0,259000.0,225000.0,220000.0,245000.0,252000.0,236000.0,216000.0,400000.0,170000.0,112000.0,101000.0,95000.0,94000.0,95000.0,96000.0,100000.0,106000.0,104000.0,96000.0,106000.0,112000.0,117000.0,126000.0,137000.0,175000.0,142000.0,132000.0,155000.0,148000.0,140000.0,130000.0,146000.0,152000.0,151000.0,166000.0,176000.0,171000.0,156000.0,151000.0,160000.0,167000.0,162000.0,151000.0,157000.0,162000.0,166000.0,186000.0,196000.0,191000.0,171000.0,166000.0,185000.0,188000.0,176000.0,161000.0,170000.0,171000.0,176000.0,191000.0,201000.0,196000.0,176000.0,170000.0,190000.0,197000.0,181000.0,170000.0,175000.0,179000.0,184000.0,198000.0,194000.0,193000.0,174000.0,168000.0,183000.0,192000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[66000.0,59000.0,70500.0,67000.0,71000.0,81000.0,88000.0,152000.0,69500.0,67000.0,68000.0,74000.0,131000.0,68000.0,73000.0,69000.0,73500.0,83000.0,91000.0,87000.0,71500.0,69000.0,70000.0,76000.0,142000.0,65000.0,75000.0,71000.0,75500.0,86000.0,93000.0,89000.0,73500.0,71000.0,72000.0,79000.0,71000.0,64000.0,76000.0,72000.0,81000.0,87000.0,95000.0,91000.0,76000.0,72000.0,73000.0,80000.0,72000.0,64000.0,52000.0,28500.0,31000.0,36000.0,41000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40500.0,37500.0,36000.0,34500.0,31500.0,39000.0,41500.0,46000.0,56000.0,61000.0,59000.0,51000.0,53000.0,55000.0,62000.0,92000.0,67000.0,79000.0,75000.0,80000.0,91000.0,99000.0,95000.0,79000.0,75000.0,77000.0,92000.0,141000.0,73000.0,86000.0,81500.0,87000.0,99000.0,107000.0,103000.0,86000.0,82000.0,83000.0,91000.0,93000.0,75000.0,88000.0,83500.0,89000.0,101000.0,139000.0,105000.0,88000.0,84000.0,85000.0,93000.0,99000.0,84000.0,89000.0,94000.0,93000.0,102000.0,111000.0,106000.0,89000.0,85000.0,86000.0,94000.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[475000.0,425000.0,465000.0,420000.0,440000.0,495000.0,520000.0,500000.0,415000.0,400000.0,440000.0,485000.0,1150000.0,640000.0,475000.0,415000.0,445000.0,500000.0,525000.0,505000.0,410000.0,400000.0,445000.0,490000.0,880000.0,445000.0,460000.0,405000.0,430000.0,485000.0,510000.0,495000.0,400000.0,385000.0,430000.0,480000.0,455000.0,400000.0,445000.0,395000.0,420000.0,475000.0,500000.0,485000.0,395000.0,375000.0,420000.0,470000.0,460000.0,425000.0,650000.0,230000.0,185000.0,195000.0,235000.0,225000.0,195000.0,190000.0,215000.0,245000.0,265000.0,280000.0,345000.0,315000.0,350000.0,405000.0,445000.0,430000.0,345000.0,330000.0,365000.0,415000.0,415000.0,385000.0,455000.0,430000.0,460000.0,520000.0,565000.0,540000.0,430000.0,415000.0,460000.0,555000.0,495000.0,430000.0,480000.0,435000.0,470000.0,525000.0,570000.0,545000.0,435000.0,420000.0,465000.0,525000.0,520000.0,470000.0,510000.0,465000.0,505000.0,565000.0,780000.0,600000.0,470000.0,460000.0,530000.0,595000.0,615000.0,510000.0,540000.0,495000.0,535000.0,615000.0,665000.0,630000.0,515000.0,505000.0,565000.0,635000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[215000.0,180000.0,185000.0,180000.0,185000.0,195000.0,205000.0,200000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,195000.0,260000.0,235000.0,210000.0,200000.0,205000.0,215000.0,225000.0,220000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,215000.0,245000.0,210000.0,215000.0,210000.0,215000.0,225000.0,235000.0,230000.0,210000.0,210000.0,210000.0,225000.0,235000.0,215000.0,225000.0,225000.0,230000.0,240000.0,250000.0,245000.0,225000.0,225000.0,225000.0,240000.0,250000.0,230000.0,230000.0,115000.0,90000.0,95000.0,110000.0,115000.0,105000.0,105000.0,105000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,125000.0,130000.0,140000.0,150000.0,165000.0,160000.0,145000.0,145000.0,145000.0,155000.0,180000.0,170000.0,185000.0,190000.0,200000.0,210000.0,225000.0,220000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,220000.0,220000.0,210000.0,225000.0,230000.0,235000.0,245000.0,260000.0,255000.0,235000.0,235000.0,235000.0,250000.0,250000.0,235000.0,245000.0,250000.0,255000.0,265000.0,280000.0,275000.0,255000.0,255000.0,255000.0,270000.0,255000.0,240000.0,245000.0,245000.0,245000.0,250000.0,260000.0,255000.0,235000.0,235000.0,235000.0,245000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[97000.0,79000.0,88000.0,90000.0,96000.0,102000.0,105000.0,102000.0,90000.0,86000.0,93000.0,99000.0,185000.0,100000.0,91000.0,93000.0,99000.0,105000.0,108000.0,105000.0,93000.0,89000.0,96000.0,103000.0,103000.0,84000.0,105000.0,96000.0,102000.0,109000.0,112000.0,109000.0,96000.0,92000.0,99000.0,106000.0,90000.0,88000.0,98000.0,100000.0,106000.0,113000.0,136000.0,113000.0,100000.0,96000.0,103000.0,110000.0,92000.0,90000.0,86000.0,57000.0,71000.0,93000.0,105000.0,103000.0,84000.0,79000.0,80000.0,79000.0,68000.0,70000.0,88000.0,95000.0,110000.0,122000.0,129000.0,122000.0,106000.0,102000.0,115000.0,119000.0,99000.0,99000.0,110000.0,113000.0,120000.0,132000.0,131000.0,128000.0,113000.0,108000.0,116000.0,124000.0,112000.0,101000.0,113000.0,116000.0,123000.0,135000.0,135000.0,131000.0,116000.0,111000.0,119000.0,127000.0,114000.0,103000.0,115000.0,122000.0,125000.0,133000.0,137000.0,133000.0,118000.0,113000.0,121000.0,130000.0,134000.0,113000.0,117000.0,123000.0,127000.0,135000.0,139000.0,135000.0,120000.0,115000.0,123000.0,132000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[109700.0,103800.0,114500.0,118000.0,127400.0,138100.0,149900.0,147500.0,110900.0,118000.0,133300.0,125100.0,175000.0,109100.0,120300.0,124000.0,133900.0,145100.0,157500.0,155000.0,116600.0,124000.0,140100.0,131400.0,117200.0,110900.0,122200.0,126000.0,136100.0,147400.0,160000.0,157500.0,118400.0,126000.0,142400.0,133600.0,122800.0,116200.0,128000.0,132000.0,142600.0,154400.0,167600.0,165000.0,124100.0,132000.0,149200.0,139900.0,140000.0,132000.0,195000.0,52000.0,45000.0,58000.0,80000.0,85000.0,70000.0,74000.0,88000.0,95000.0,98000.0,92000.0,104000.0,106000.0,114000.0,128000.0,150000.0,148000.0,112000.0,118000.0,132000.0,124000.0,156200.0,147800.0,171600.0,168000.0,181400.0,206600.0,248400.0,235000.0,157900.0,168000.0,190000.0,178100.0,237400.0,158400.0,174600.0,180000.0,194400.0,210600.0,228600.0,225000.0,174200.0,180000.0,203400.0,190800.0,169300.0,160200.0,176700.0,182000.0,196600.0,212900.0,286300.0,227500.0,171100.0,182000.0,220700.0,192900.0,184800.0,165400.0,182400.0,188000.0,203000.0,245000.0,238800.0,235000.0,176700.0,188000.0,272400.0,199300.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[66000.0,49000.0,55000.0,51000.0,52000.0,56000.0,61000.0,58000.0,53000.0,54000.0,57000.0,64000.0,58000.0,53000.0,58000.0,55000.0,56000.0,59000.0,61000.0,62000.0,72000.0,57000.0,59000.0,72000.0,61000.0,56000.0,70000.0,59000.0,61000.0,63000.0,65000.0,66000.0,62000.0,61000.0,63000.0,68000.0,67000.0,60000.0,65000.0,63000.0,64000.0,67000.0,69000.0,70000.0,69000.0,65000.0,67000.0,76000.0,65000.0,62000.0,138000.0,118000.0,87000.0,74000.0,76000.0,79000.0,72000.0,71000.0,73000.0,158000.0,123000.0,71000.0,73000.0,70000.0,79000.0,76000.0,80000.0,82000.0,74000.0,72000.0,76000.0,106000.0,113000.0,83000.0,86000.0,79000.0,86000.0,90000.0,93000.0,95000.0,83000.0,82000.0,85000.0,111000.0,96000.0,81000.0,88000.0,84000.0,89000.0,93000.0,98000.0,101000.0,89000.0,87000.0,92000.0,107000.0,102000.0,90000.0,94000.0,90000.0,97000.0,101000.0,105000.0,108000.0,94000.0,93000.0,98000.0,114000.0,127000.0,94000.0,100000.0,96000.0,103000.0,107000.0,112000.0,115000.0,100000.0,99000.0,104000.0,120000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[190000.0,185000.0,200000.0,200000.0,205000.0,210000.0,215000.0,210000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,190000.0,205000.0,205000.0,205000.0,210000.0,215000.0,210000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,190000.0,205000.0,205000.0,205000.0,210000.0,215000.0,210000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,190000.0,205000.0,205000.0,205000.0,210000.0,215000.0,210000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,195000.0,195000.0,185000.0,140000.0,90000.0,95000.0,105000.0,115000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,115000.0,120000.0,130000.0,145000.0,155000.0,155000.0,150000.0,155000.0,160000.0,160000.0,155000.0,155000.0,170000.0,175000.0,180000.0,185000.0,190000.0,185000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,175000.0,190000.0,190000.0,190000.0,195000.0,200000.0,195000.0,185000.0,190000.0,190000.0,185000.0,185000.0,180000.0,195000.0,195000.0,195000.0,200000.0,205000.0,200000.0,190000.0,190000.0,190000.0,190000.0,190000.0,185000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,205000.0,210000.0,205000.0,195000.0,195000.0,195000.0,195000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[83612.0,77849.0,100213.0,103284.0,106655.0,119341.0,126288.0,120433.0,91327.0,87412.0,98528.0,110917.0,88214.0,83712.0,105128.0,108293.0,112433.0,125116.0,132688.0,126271.0,96354.0,92137.0,103421.0,117668.0,92288.0,86321.0,110133.0,113822.0,118412.0,131628.0,139116.0,132347.0,101423.0,97233.0,108233.0,122616.0,101222.0,94831.0,121413.0,124893.0,131012.0,144522.0,153833.0,145912.0,110334.0,106411.0,118221.0,134266.0,110313.0,100622.0,361822.0,218913.0,70214.0,96733.0,121822.0,128421.0,93412.0,82133.0,95212.0,122733.0,99733.0,94612.0,120214.0,110722.0,122334.0,135123.0,152412.0,148231.0,114722.0,108212.0,122533.0,139122.0,123412.0,115632.0,147212.0,151834.0,157933.0,189723.0,241412.0,225333.0,135412.0,128634.0,154833.0,229412.0,119212.0,111323.0,142633.0,146522.0,151234.0,185422.0,206133.0,170933.0,130612.0,124333.0,139823.0,175212.0,132633.0,123421.0,158712.0,162433.0,168333.0,188722.0,225612.0,210433.0,144722.0,138122.0,155834.0,199213.0,141834.0,131423.0,168622.0,173233.0,179634.0,201312.0,224833.0,213922.0,158433.0,149723.0,169522.0,214633.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[9100.0,8500.0,9800.0,9400.0,10100.0,10800.0,11600.0,11200.0,9800.0,10100.0,9700.0,10500.0,28000.0,12800.0,11500.0,10900.0,11200.0,12100.0,13100.0,12400.0,10800.0,11100.0,10700.0,11400.0,12700.0,10200.0,11200.0,10900.0,11800.0,12700.0,13600.0,13000.0,11300.0,11700.0,11100.0,12100.0,11600.0,10600.0,11700.0,11400.0,12100.0,13300.0,14100.0,13600.0,11700.0,12200.0,11700.0,12500.0,12000.0,11100.0,13000.0,8500.0,6800.0,6900.0,7600.0,7300.0,6500.0,6900.0,6700.0,7400.0,7000.0,6800.0,7900.0,8200.0,9000.0,9800.0,10400.0,9600.0,8800.0,9100.0,9200.0,9900.0,9400.0,8700.0,10300.0,10500.0,11000.0,11900.0,12700.0,12100.0,10800.0,11300.0,10800.0,11600.0,10800.0,10100.0,11900.0,11700.0,12400.0,13700.0,14600.0,13800.0,12300.0,12600.0,12100.0,13000.0,12000.0,11300.0,13200.0,12900.0,13700.0,14900.0,15700.0,14800.0,13200.0,13700.0,13000.0,14100.0,13000.0,12200.0,14100.0,13800.0,14600.0,15700.0,16500.0,15600.0,13900.0,14300.0,13700.0,14800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[20500.0,20100.0,22800.0,22900.0,23800.0,24900.0,25200.0,24300.0,23000.0,23200.0,21300.0,21000.0,52000.0,36000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23500.0,24000.0,24500.0,23800.0,22800.0,22600.0,21500.0,21000.0,21500.0,20800.0,23500.0,23600.0,24500.0,25300.0,25700.0,24800.0,23500.0,23600.0,22000.0,21800.0,22500.0,21800.0,24800.0,25200.0,26200.0,27000.0,27400.0,26300.0,25000.0,25200.0,23500.0,23200.0,24500.0,23800.0,31000.0,16500.0,12000.0,12400.0,13300.0,14000.0,14200.0,14400.0,13600.0,13200.0,12800.0,13000.0,14800.0,15000.0,15600.0,16000.0,16200.0,15400.0,14800.0,15000.0,14200.0,14000.0,14500.0,14600.0,16200.0,16400.0,16900.0,17300.0,17500.0,16800.0,16000.0,16200.0,15300.0,15000.0,15000.0,14900.0,16300.0,16600.0,17000.0,17400.0,17600.0,17000.0,16100.0,16200.0,15500.0,15200.0,15800.0,15600.0,17200.0,17400.0,17900.0,18300.0,18500.0,17800.0,17000.0,17100.0,16300.0,16100.0,16200.0,16000.0,17600.0,17900.0,18500.0,19000.0,19300.0,18600.0,17700.0,17800.0,16900.0,16600.0]}},{"title":"Charlie Day","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Charlie Day\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[181040,124582,106217,83973,81650,76214,83365,78405,80691,89228,73948,115006,226660,236173,155648,112897,120402,129040,110355,111363,111139,102860,114200,90628,95910,92251,173080,111756,84430,99649,88903,83872,98482,87913,91809,75972,102616,87802,81250,73729,69841,74827,88356,85501,102789,80412,70186,65298,76279,90603,79963,85988,88478,72712,78512,76859,76542,76846,79897,82100,83047,79627,80196,84251,97580,81709,87668,89763,146491,89486,87983,129807,138862,216008,165919,100711,89752,77601,84472,89278,91299,158941,97468,119901,136582,123086,134129,311070,226099,164965,145388,128464,90953,85388,103924,108525,117140,103717,84192,72064,76578,71387,62810,71432,71225,67571,89122,90529,117131,96127,85892,78730,91885,87394,110180,120304,93030,73572,70143,65074],"flat_reference_value":16811.965780742816,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[130000.0,110000.0,90000.0,72000.0,68000.0,65000.0,66000.0,68000.0,70000.0,72000.0,74000.0,76000.0,145000.0,175000.0,125000.0,85000.0,72000.0,69000.0,70000.0,72000.0,73000.0,75000.0,74000.0,78000.0,80000.0,76000.0,150000.0,105000.0,75000.0,85000.0,72000.0,80000.0,145000.0,125000.0,90000.0,78000.0,78000.0,120000.0,90000.0,76000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,76000.0,135000.0,135000.0,105000.0,85000.0,80000.0,82000.0,90000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,79000.0,80000.0,83000.0,82000.0,85000.0,84000.0,77000.0,79000.0,76000.0,78000.0,75000.0,78000.0,79000.0,85000.0,80000.0,90000.0,155000.0,115000.0,145000.0,100000.0,85000.0,82000.0,80000.0,82000.0,84000.0,82000.0,85000.0,83000.0,88000.0,90000.0,85000.0,110000.0,400000.0,225000.0,165000.0,125000.0,100000.0,95000.0,93000.0,90000.0,100000.0,95000.0,85000.0,88000.0,85000.0,85000.0,82000.0,85000.0,86000.0,85000.0,88000.0,85000.0,90000.0,130000.0,95000.0,90000.0,88000.0,90000.0,105000.0,190000.0,150000.0,100000.0,92000.0,88000.0,95000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[148000.0,132000.0,118000.0,94000.0,89000.0,108000.0,98000.0,92000.0,88000.0,91000.0,95000.0,102000.0,168000.0,265000.0,175000.0,112000.0,104000.0,96000.0,99000.0,95000.0,92000.0,94000.0,128000.0,98000.0,105000.0,96000.0,182000.0,118000.0,98000.0,115000.0,102000.0,108000.0,156000.0,142000.0,135000.0,104000.0,102000.0,128000.0,105000.0,92000.0,89000.0,86000.0,91000.0,94000.0,138000.0,134000.0,126000.0,98000.0,96000.0,118000.0,112000.0,124000.0,116000.0,102000.0,98000.0,95000.0,89000.0,88000.0,86000.0,92000.0,95000.0,88000.0,86000.0,84000.0,92000.0,85000.0,89000.0,87000.0,162000.0,98000.0,112000.0,168000.0,122000.0,245000.0,135000.0,104000.0,98000.0,96000.0,102000.0,99000.0,92000.0,118000.0,108000.0,104000.0,102000.0,96000.0,135000.0,440000.0,285000.0,235000.0,210000.0,132000.0,98000.0,89000.0,85000.0,88000.0,86000.0,78000.0,81000.0,76000.0,74000.0,72000.0,77000.0,79000.0,108000.0,114000.0,96000.0,88000.0,172000.0,115000.0,92000.0,82000.0,89000.0,98000.0,168000.0,136000.0,98000.0,86000.0,89000.0,84000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[132000.0,126000.0,118000.0,104000.0,97000.0,94000.0,91000.0,89000.0,88000.0,91000.0,89000.0,96000.0,142000.0,195000.0,152000.0,112000.0,101000.0,94000.0,91000.0,89000.0,88000.0,86000.0,94000.0,91000.0,102000.0,106000.0,162000.0,124000.0,104000.0,95000.0,92000.0,101000.0,142000.0,136000.0,124000.0,106000.0,101000.0,128000.0,111000.0,101000.0,94000.0,91000.0,89000.0,96000.0,137000.0,141000.0,129000.0,104000.0,101000.0,112000.0,116000.0,121000.0,104000.0,94000.0,89000.0,91000.0,87000.0,84000.0,87000.0,92000.0,96000.0,91000.0,89000.0,87000.0,89000.0,86000.0,84000.0,89000.0,224000.0,128000.0,122000.0,178000.0,146000.0,162000.0,131000.0,118000.0,112000.0,108000.0,103000.0,99000.0,104000.0,144000.0,122000.0,118000.0,119000.0,124000.0,148000.0,482000.0,288000.0,218000.0,176000.0,138000.0,122000.0,114000.0,108000.0,112000.0,109000.0,103000.0,99000.0,104000.0,101000.0,97000.0,94000.0,91000.0,89000.0,91000.0,88000.0,93000.0,96000.0,91000.0,89000.0,88000.0,87000.0,85000.0,84000.0,82000.0,84000.0,85000.0,83000.0,88000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[135000.0,120000.0,118000.0,112000.0,110000.0,108000.0,112000.0,110000.0,105000.0,108000.0,104000.0,115000.0,150000.0,135000.0,125000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,102000.0,100000.0,115000.0,108000.0,100000.0,105000.0,102000.0,98000.0,125000.0,105000.0,95000.0,92000.0,95000.0,98000.0,125000.0,118000.0,100000.0,98000.0,95000.0,90000.0,92000.0,88000.0,86000.0,85000.0,88000.0,90000.0,110000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,92000.0,95000.0,105000.0,115000.0,108000.0,100000.0,98000.0,95000.0,92000.0,90000.0,88000.0,92000.0,90000.0,86000.0,85000.0,82000.0,82000.0,80000.0,82000.0,84000.0,180000.0,110000.0,95000.0,120000.0,110000.0,115000.0,95000.0,88000.0,85000.0,82000.0,85000.0,84000.0,88000.0,135000.0,125000.0,105000.0,100000.0,105000.0,170000.0,420000.0,260000.0,175000.0,150000.0,125000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,110000.0,100000.0,95000.0,92000.0,95000.0,90000.0,88000.0,90000.0,88000.0,86000.0,88000.0,85000.0,92000.0,88000.0,85000.0,84000.0,86000.0,84000.0,90000.0,115000.0,100000.0,92000.0,105000.0,90000.0,88000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[290000.0,260000.0,250000.0,210000.0,200000.0,195000.0,200000.0,195000.0,185000.0,190000.0,190000.0,210000.0,270000.0,330000.0,300000.0,220000.0,200000.0,210000.0,200000.0,190000.0,180000.0,185000.0,185000.0,200000.0,210000.0,200000.0,310000.0,240000.0,190000.0,200000.0,195000.0,190000.0,240000.0,250000.0,230000.0,200000.0,200000.0,180000.0,180000.0,170000.0,170000.0,165000.0,170000.0,175000.0,210000.0,230000.0,220000.0,200000.0,190000.0,170000.0,180000.0,210000.0,200000.0,175000.0,170000.0,165000.0,155000.0,155000.0,155000.0,165000.0,175000.0,160000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,145000.0,150000.0,150000.0,145000.0,150000.0,160000.0,260000.0,210000.0,230000.0,170000.0,150000.0,145000.0,140000.0,145000.0,140000.0,135000.0,160000.0,160000.0,170000.0,165000.0,160000.0,230000.0,620000.0,330000.0,290000.0,240000.0,190000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,165000.0,160000.0,145000.0,140000.0,130000.0,130000.0,130000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,125000.0,125000.0,135000.0,180000.0,140000.0,130000.0,125000.0,125000.0,130000.0,190000.0,200000.0,150000.0,130000.0,125000.0,130000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[155000.0,118000.0,96000.0,91000.0,88000.0,84000.0,90000.0,87000.0,93000.0,86000.0,89000.0,94000.0,142000.0,138000.0,104000.0,92000.0,87000.0,82000.0,88000.0,83000.0,86000.0,80000.0,81000.0,86000.0,92000.0,97000.0,148000.0,103000.0,86000.0,81000.0,89000.0,84000.0,128000.0,102000.0,97000.0,89000.0,88000.0,118000.0,86000.0,81000.0,78000.0,74000.0,82000.0,77000.0,116000.0,101000.0,95000.0,84000.0,79000.0,74000.0,72000.0,66000.0,68000.0,66000.0,62000.0,59000.0,63000.0,61000.0,64000.0,67000.0,69000.0,63000.0,61000.0,59000.0,58000.0,56000.0,61000.0,58000.0,61000.0,66000.0,82000.0,132000.0,88000.0,71000.0,66000.0,63000.0,61000.0,59000.0,63000.0,60000.0,63000.0,66000.0,66000.0,71000.0,72000.0,69000.0,86000.0,225000.0,168000.0,138000.0,108000.0,76000.0,73000.0,71000.0,73000.0,76000.0,73000.0,66000.0,63000.0,61000.0,60000.0,59000.0,63000.0,59000.0,61000.0,64000.0,62000.0,66000.0,118000.0,86000.0,73000.0,71000.0,69000.0,74000.0,142000.0,112000.0,79000.0,73000.0,71000.0,76000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[58234.0,53412.0,49567.0,44210.0,42876.0,41543.0,43289.0,41876.0,42543.0,43987.0,44652.0,46123.0,61245.0,76890.0,52340.0,41234.0,39876.0,38543.0,39211.0,40123.0,38987.0,39543.0,40211.0,41876.0,45234.0,44567.0,87345.0,54211.0,41234.0,39876.0,40543.0,39234.0,51234.0,49876.0,46234.0,42123.0,38543.0,71234.0,48234.0,39234.0,37654.0,36123.0,37234.0,36543.0,47654.0,49234.0,44123.0,39876.0,36234.0,35123.0,44234.0,47123.0,42876.0,36234.0,35123.0,34234.0,33543.0,34876.0,35234.0,36876.0,34543.0,33123.0,32456.0,31876.0,31234.0,30987.0,31543.0,30876.0,31234.0,32543.0,33876.0,54321.0,49876.0,34234.0,33123.0,32543.0,31876.0,31234.0,32876.0,31543.0,30987.0,32123.0,33543.0,34211.0,35432.0,38211.0,78456.0,284532.0,176432.0,108234.0,84211.0,51234.0,38234.0,35432.0,34123.0,35211.0,33234.0,32123.0,31543.0,32876.0,31234.0,30543.0,29876.0,29234.0,28543.0,30123.0,29543.0,30876.0,29543.0,28342.0,27987.0,28543.0,29211.0,31456.0,52345.0,41234.0,30211.0,28876.0,28342.0,29567.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,34000.0,55000.0,30000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,62000.0,40000.0,26000.0,30000.0,24000.0,24000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,32000.0,58000.0,34000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,34000.0,30000.0,42000.0,38000.0,32000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,42000.0,32000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,31000.0,36000.0,48000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,42000.0,52000.0,38000.0,46000.0,420000.0,180000.0,95000.0,82000.0,58000.0,52000.0,56000.0,62000.0,78000.0,62000.0,52000.0,52000.0,66000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50000.0,53000.0,66000.0,58000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,53000.0,58000.0,74000.0,64000.0,54000.0,56000.0,63000.0,84000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[70000.0,48000.0,42000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,80000.0,95000.0,55000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,75000.0,50000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,48000.0,90000.0,65000.0,52000.0,46000.0,48000.0,85000.0,60000.0,50000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50000.0,85000.0,62000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,58000.0,62000.0,58000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,56000.0,58000.0,85000.0,130000.0,95000.0,75000.0,70000.0,65000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,65000.0,65000.0,80000.0,650000.0,260000.0,170000.0,130000.0,95000.0,85000.0,75000.0,70000.0,65000.0,65000.0,68000.0,65000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,66000.0,64000.0,66000.0,64000.0,65000.0,65000.0,66000.0,68000.0,75000.0,110000.0,160000.0,105000.0,85000.0,75000.0,70000.0,68000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[43000.0,31500.0,47500.0,30200.0,29500.0,30800.0,32500.0,30100.0,31200.0,31800.0,30500.0,28200.0,49500.0,33800.0,50500.0,33500.0,34200.0,35200.0,36800.0,34500.0,35500.0,36000.0,34200.0,31500.0,36500.0,35800.0,78500.0,52500.0,37500.0,43500.0,39500.0,36800.0,56500.0,48500.0,38500.0,34500.0,39800.0,54500.0,63500.0,40800.0,41800.0,42800.0,44500.0,41500.0,60500.0,52500.0,41800.0,37500.0,43500.0,45500.0,68500.0,72500.0,65500.0,59500.0,55500.0,51500.0,49500.0,49000.0,47500.0,44500.0,47500.0,46500.0,67500.0,48500.0,47500.0,56500.0,49500.0,48500.0,108000.0,68500.0,52500.0,62500.0,54500.0,53500.0,76500.0,53500.0,54500.0,55800.0,57500.0,54500.0,55500.0,72500.0,69500.0,61500.0,60500.0,59500.0,85500.0,238000.0,162000.0,92500.0,82500.0,72500.0,70500.0,68500.0,66500.0,62500.0,68500.0,67500.0,98500.0,70500.0,69500.0,70500.0,102000.0,86500.0,72500.0,71500.0,69500.0,64500.0,72500.0,108000.0,118000.0,79500.0,77500.0,78500.0,83500.0,76500.0,75500.0,74500.0,73000.0,68500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[58000.0,66000.0,72000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,52000.0,74000.0,58000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,27000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,46000.0,56000.0,51000.0,28000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,43000.0,53000.0,58000.0,27000.0,21000.0,21000.0,24000.0,23000.0,46000.0,52000.0,30000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,21000.0,17000.0,17000.0,19000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,42000.0,450000.0,150000.0,105000.0,70000.0,48000.0,36000.0,29000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,52000.0,60000.0,54000.0,32000.0,26000.0,24000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[118000.0,105000.0,92000.0,78000.0,70000.0,69000.0,68000.0,72000.0,82000.0,79000.0,75000.0,86000.0,156000.0,142000.0,126000.0,101000.0,94000.0,89000.0,128000.0,112000.0,116000.0,108000.0,94000.0,101000.0,161000.0,137000.0,116000.0,102000.0,95000.0,91000.0,96000.0,99000.0,145000.0,130000.0,111000.0,152000.0,177000.0,150000.0,126000.0,112000.0,154000.0,151000.0,122000.0,119000.0,178000.0,163000.0,137000.0,142000.0,151000.0,142000.0,205000.0,338000.0,326000.0,270000.0,244000.0,218000.0,302000.0,480000.0,410000.0,357000.0,452000.0,366000.0,315000.0,290000.0,273000.0,266000.0,277000.0,302000.0,381000.0,346000.0,287000.0,301000.0,405000.0,334000.0,289000.0,281000.0,258000.0,246000.0,252000.0,269000.0,351000.0,324000.0,271000.0,288000.0,351000.0,288000.0,247000.0,225000.0,215000.0,207000.0,214000.0,232000.0,305000.0,291000.0,252000.0,264000.0,329000.0,296000.0,255000.0,232000.0,223000.0,216000.0,222000.0,238000.0,284000.0,344000.0,274000.0,349000.0,378000.0,316000.0,274000.0,252000.0,240000.0,231000.0,239000.0,258000.0,354000.0,332000.0,267000.0,292000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,75000.0,72000.0,72000.0,78000.0,80000.0,78000.0,85000.0,95000.0,130000.0,100000.0,82000.0,78000.0,75000.0,72000.0,70000.0,75000.0,78000.0,76000.0,80000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,65000.0,68000.0,70000.0,68000.0,72000.0,78000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,65000.0,64000.0,63000.0,66000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0,75000.0,70000.0,75000.0,78000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,66000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,65000.0,70000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,64000.0,66000.0,68000.0,78000.0,82000.0,80000.0,110000.0,210000.0,130000.0,95000.0,85000.0,78000.0,78000.0,76000.0,74000.0,80000.0,80000.0,74000.0,72000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,70000.0,70000.0,74000.0,80000.0,74000.0,74000.0,78000.0,74000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0,72000.0,72000.0,80000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[6821.0,6453.0,7102.0,7541.0,8027.0,8935.0,9574.0,9116.0,8412.0,7863.0,7408.0,7109.0,13872.0,10954.0,9401.0,8786.0,9122.0,10034.0,10871.0,10428.0,9477.0,9022.0,8559.0,8213.0,14988.0,12037.0,10379.0,9816.0,10228.0,11354.0,12281.0,11705.0,10426.0,9973.0,9461.0,8982.0,9332.0,8964.0,8751.0,8997.0,9432.0,10371.0,11164.0,12128.0,19577.0,15692.0,13014.0,10871.0,11743.0,10596.0,10328.0,10671.0,11094.0,12038.0,12781.0,11874.0,11126.0,10691.0,10207.0,9784.0,10164.0,9841.0,10032.0,10417.0,10593.0,11126.0,19873.0,15022.0,12874.0,12036.0,11362.0,10971.0,10793.0,10491.0,10642.0,10987.0,22031.0,16744.0,14203.0,13216.0,20871.0,17342.0,15027.0,12876.0,16022.0,13046.0,11874.0,185312.0,96420.0,55734.0,35981.0,28742.0,20173.0,17204.0,15382.0,14291.0,13672.0,13084.0,12876.0,13210.0,13688.0,14982.0,16042.0,15184.0,19871.0,17124.0,15682.0,14291.0,15672.0,13874.0,12983.0,12674.0,12582.0,13391.0,14572.0,13784.0,16241.0,14102.0,13182.0,12641.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[18400.0,17200.0,19100.0,17800.0,18200.0,17600.0,18800.0,20100.0,21300.0,19600.0,18900.0,20500.0,19800.0,32700.0,26100.0,21300.0,20500.0,19800.0,20600.0,21900.0,23800.0,22200.0,20700.0,21800.0,21400.0,22600.0,36500.0,25100.0,22400.0,21600.0,22200.0,23100.0,24700.0,23900.0,22600.0,22000.0,21800.0,30400.0,25300.0,22900.0,22100.0,21800.0,22900.0,24500.0,31900.0,28800.0,27500.0,23600.0,22900.0,22400.0,25300.0,24800.0,23100.0,22400.0,23200.0,24700.0,26300.0,24100.0,22900.0,23600.0,23000.0,22100.0,22600.0,21900.0,22400.0,21800.0,22900.0,24200.0,25700.0,24400.0,23800.0,31500.0,25800.0,24600.0,25100.0,24400.0,24900.0,24200.0,25400.0,26900.0,28100.0,26700.0,25500.0,26100.0,25300.0,25100.0,28200.0,142000.0,69200.0,51800.0,34700.0,30100.0,31800.0,29500.0,28300.0,27600.0,26800.0,26100.0,27300.0,26600.0,27100.0,26400.0,27900.0,29200.0,30600.0,28900.0,27800.0,28400.0,27600.0,26800.0,27300.0,26700.0,27400.0,28100.0,36900.0,34200.0,31800.0,30100.0,28800.0,29500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[6200.0,6000.0,5900.0,5600.0,5500.0,5300.0,5600.0,5200.0,5800.0,6000.0,6100.0,5700.0,6200.0,6100.0,6300.0,8200.0,8000.0,6000.0,5900.0,5700.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0,5700.0,5500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5000.0,5600.0,5800.0,5700.0,5400.0,5600.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5800.0,5900.0,5700.0,5400.0,5800.0,5700.0,6600.0,7000.0,6900.0,6500.0,6400.0,6200.0,6300.0,6400.0,6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,5900.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6200.0,6100.0,6000.0,7000.0,7300.0,7100.0,6600.0,6000.0,5900.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,5800.0,6600.0,6700.0,6400.0,6100.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5900.0,6100.0,5900.0,5600.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0]}},{"title":"Cigarette","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Cigarette\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[63583,61305,63314,57337,62026,53384,51422,52443,56651,61416,61919,56257,68290,57408,62101,51972,60139,49094,52636,48078,50175,57422,58496,53734,59368,53345,71883,48586,51763,44511,46444,48824,51042,52804,53253,49495,53049,49536,54978,52622,53529,49571,53167,54610,60035,64561,59505,56307,59215,50806,51390,54423,50400,41724,41745,44613,45663,48310,47712,57895,67682,49314,53536,51222,52001,47253,48332,46016,45752,44304,44914,49742,52396,48898,54185,53057,49584,47722,51417,63873,60017,64208,64851,53426,61950,61219,67799,54884,67686,64292,62605,62846,66664,70679,69408,71267,78466,62106,61383,60545,50579,37741,37666,82802,38982,41846,40473,36716,40289,34150,36991,34745,35773,32037,33502,36494,33423,36052,34260,32690],"flat_reference_value":16866.213883081346,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[128000.0,118000.0,126000.0,121000.0,129000.0,115000.0,108000.0,111000.0,119000.0,125000.0,119000.0,109000.0,125000.0,112000.0,121000.0,117000.0,125000.0,111000.0,105000.0,108000.0,115000.0,122000.0,116000.0,106000.0,122000.0,109000.0,118000.0,114000.0,122000.0,108000.0,103000.0,106000.0,113000.0,119000.0,113000.0,104000.0,119000.0,107000.0,115000.0,112000.0,120000.0,106000.0,101000.0,105000.0,119000.0,123000.0,113000.0,103000.0,117000.0,109000.0,128000.0,138000.0,132000.0,114000.0,108000.0,110000.0,116000.0,118000.0,112000.0,103000.0,116000.0,104000.0,113000.0,109000.0,116000.0,103000.0,98000.0,101000.0,109000.0,114000.0,108000.0,99000.0,112000.0,100000.0,109000.0,105000.0,113000.0,100000.0,95000.0,98000.0,105000.0,110000.0,105000.0,96000.0,109000.0,97000.0,106000.0,102000.0,110000.0,97000.0,93000.0,96000.0,102000.0,107000.0,102000.0,94000.0,106000.0,96000.0,103000.0,100000.0,107000.0,95000.0,91000.0,94000.0,100000.0,104000.0,99000.0,92000.0,104000.0,93000.0,101000.0,98000.0,105000.0,93000.0,89000.0,92000.0,98000.0,102000.0,97000.0,90000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[89400.0,81200.0,86500.0,84900.0,88300.0,75400.0,73800.0,74200.0,78600.0,83900.0,82100.0,76500.0,85700.0,76800.0,84100.0,81600.0,85200.0,72900.0,72400.0,71800.0,76100.0,81300.0,79800.0,74100.0,82900.0,74300.0,81200.0,79400.0,82600.0,70500.0,69800.0,70200.0,74500.0,79100.0,77600.0,72800.0,81400.0,73100.0,79800.0,77900.0,81500.0,69900.0,70400.0,73800.0,81200.0,83400.0,79500.0,82100.0,84600.0,76200.0,83900.0,94800.0,92300.0,78400.0,76100.0,75900.0,73200.0,75800.0,73400.0,70100.0,76500.0,68400.0,74200.0,77900.0,76100.0,65800.0,64900.0,65200.0,67400.0,70800.0,69100.0,65300.0,71800.0,64100.0,69700.0,71500.0,70900.0,61200.0,60800.0,61100.0,63500.0,66900.0,65400.0,67800.0,68900.0,60700.0,65800.0,64100.0,66400.0,57900.0,57400.0,57800.0,60200.0,64800.0,62900.0,58600.0,64200.0,58300.0,62400.0,63800.0,63100.0,54900.0,54600.0,55100.0,57300.0,60400.0,58800.0,55200.0,60900.0,53800.0,58900.0,57600.0,59800.0,52100.0,51800.0,52300.0,54600.0,57500.0,56100.0,52700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[108000.0,104000.0,102000.0,98000.0,99000.0,88000.0,86000.0,89000.0,95000.0,101000.0,97000.0,85000.0,102000.0,96000.0,97000.0,91000.0,92000.0,83000.0,81000.0,84000.0,90000.0,94000.0,92000.0,80000.0,95000.0,89000.0,90000.0,85000.0,86000.0,78000.0,76000.0,79000.0,85000.0,88000.0,86000.0,74000.0,88000.0,82000.0,84000.0,79000.0,80000.0,73000.0,72000.0,77000.0,88000.0,86000.0,81000.0,71000.0,82000.0,78000.0,89000.0,95000.0,88000.0,76000.0,74000.0,76000.0,81000.0,83000.0,80000.0,70000.0,78000.0,73000.0,76000.0,74000.0,72000.0,65000.0,64000.0,66000.0,72000.0,74000.0,72000.0,63000.0,71000.0,66000.0,69000.0,67000.0,66000.0,59000.0,58000.0,61000.0,67000.0,69000.0,66000.0,62000.0,66000.0,61000.0,64000.0,61000.0,60000.0,54000.0,53000.0,56000.0,61000.0,65000.0,62000.0,54000.0,61000.0,57000.0,59000.0,58000.0,56000.0,50000.0,49000.0,52000.0,56000.0,58000.0,56000.0,49000.0,56000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,51000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,51000.0,53000.0,51000.0,45000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[86000.0,88000.0,91000.0,87000.0,84000.0,76000.0,74000.0,75000.0,80000.0,84000.0,83000.0,74000.0,80000.0,82000.0,84000.0,79000.0,77000.0,70000.0,68000.0,69000.0,73000.0,76000.0,75000.0,67000.0,72000.0,73000.0,75000.0,71000.0,69000.0,63000.0,61000.0,62000.0,66000.0,69000.0,68000.0,61000.0,66000.0,67000.0,69000.0,66000.0,64000.0,58000.0,57000.0,59000.0,66000.0,67000.0,63000.0,57000.0,62000.0,63000.0,68000.0,70000.0,65000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,58000.0,60000.0,59000.0,54000.0,58000.0,57000.0,58000.0,55000.0,53000.0,49000.0,48000.0,48000.0,51000.0,53000.0,52000.0,47000.0,51000.0,51000.0,52000.0,49000.0,48000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,49000.0,48000.0,43000.0,47000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,40000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,37000.0,41000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,35000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[118000.0,114000.0,117000.0,112000.0,113000.0,102000.0,100000.0,101000.0,106000.0,110000.0,109000.0,100000.0,108000.0,101000.0,107000.0,100000.0,102000.0,93000.0,92000.0,93000.0,96000.0,100000.0,99000.0,91000.0,99000.0,92000.0,96000.0,92000.0,92000.0,84000.0,84000.0,85000.0,88000.0,92000.0,90000.0,83000.0,91000.0,84000.0,88000.0,85000.0,86000.0,79000.0,80000.0,81000.0,85000.0,86000.0,83000.0,78000.0,84000.0,79000.0,80000.0,86000.0,85000.0,78000.0,77000.0,76000.0,76000.0,77000.0,75000.0,72000.0,77000.0,71000.0,75000.0,71000.0,71000.0,66000.0,66000.0,66000.0,67000.0,69000.0,67000.0,63000.0,67000.0,62000.0,65000.0,61000.0,62000.0,57000.0,57000.0,58000.0,59000.0,61000.0,59000.0,56000.0,60000.0,55000.0,58000.0,55000.0,56000.0,52000.0,52000.0,53000.0,54000.0,55000.0,54000.0,51000.0,55000.0,51000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,48000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,47000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[102400.0,93100.0,96200.0,94800.0,98300.0,87600.0,84900.0,89200.0,97100.0,100200.0,99300.0,91400.0,104800.0,93600.0,96100.0,95200.0,96600.0,87400.0,92100.0,90800.0,98900.0,101400.0,100200.0,94700.0,106300.0,94800.0,97200.0,95900.0,96800.0,88800.0,89900.0,93100.0,100300.0,103200.0,101100.0,98200.0,108400.0,96100.0,98300.0,97200.0,98100.0,89900.0,92100.0,96400.0,105200.0,108700.0,103800.0,115400.0,120300.0,101200.0,103400.0,105100.0,100900.0,93100.0,90200.0,88400.0,94300.0,95900.0,94100.0,96900.0,105300.0,93600.0,95800.0,106200.0,100800.0,90700.0,88900.0,87700.0,92900.0,94900.0,93800.0,96100.0,101200.0,90600.0,92800.0,94100.0,93900.0,88700.0,91800.0,89200.0,93200.0,95800.0,96600.0,94900.0,99100.0,88800.0,90900.0,92700.0,93100.0,86800.0,88100.0,89300.0,93400.0,110300.0,102100.0,99800.0,97800.0,87900.0,96100.0,100900.0,92100.0,86900.0,89200.0,89900.0,93800.0,96800.0,100800.0,94700.0,90900.0,82100.0,85800.0,89700.0,86200.0,80800.0,81100.0,78400.0,83100.0,84900.0,85700.0,82300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[58600.0,51800.0,54300.0,51500.0,58600.0,49900.0,49900.0,51500.0,52500.0,57000.0,52500.0,51500.0,56900.0,48600.0,52700.0,50000.0,56900.0,48500.0,48500.0,50100.0,51000.0,55300.0,51000.0,50100.0,55200.0,47100.0,51200.0,48500.0,55200.0,47000.0,47100.0,48600.0,49500.0,53700.0,49500.0,48600.0,53600.0,45700.0,49600.0,47000.0,53600.0,45600.0,45600.0,47100.0,52800.0,59900.0,52800.0,47100.0,51900.0,45800.0,57700.0,61500.0,62300.0,48600.0,42800.0,44200.0,45000.0,48800.0,45000.0,44200.0,50200.0,42800.0,46500.0,44100.0,50200.0,42800.0,42800.0,44200.0,45000.0,48800.0,45000.0,44200.0,48500.0,41400.0,45000.0,42600.0,53400.0,41300.0,41400.0,42700.0,43500.0,47200.0,43500.0,42700.0,46900.0,40000.0,43400.0,41200.0,46900.0,39900.0,39900.0,41200.0,42000.0,45600.0,42000.0,41200.0,41900.0,37000.0,38800.0,36800.0,41900.0,35600.0,35700.0,36800.0,37500.0,40700.0,37500.0,36800.0,36800.0,31400.0,34100.0,32300.0,36800.0,31400.0,31400.0,32400.0,33000.0,35800.0,33000.0,32400.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[867400.0,782100.0,811300.0,768900.0,801600.0,742800.0,719300.0,731500.0,774200.0,799700.0,823600.0,758400.0,852900.0,769400.0,796200.0,752800.0,787100.0,731500.0,708600.0,719900.0,761300.0,783400.0,807200.0,744100.0,838600.0,752300.0,784700.0,736200.0,771800.0,718400.0,695100.0,707300.0,749600.0,774900.0,801200.0,732500.0,823400.0,739800.0,770100.0,722600.0,759300.0,706200.0,684500.0,731800.0,798400.0,812700.0,839600.0,862500.0,921600.0,812400.0,897300.0,912800.0,848600.0,781200.0,745900.0,757300.0,798500.0,823700.0,849200.0,786400.0,871200.0,778600.0,812400.0,764900.0,798300.0,742100.0,711800.0,724600.0,769400.0,793200.0,818700.0,752300.0,819600.0,731400.0,766200.0,718300.0,752900.0,731200.0,692400.0,681200.0,723600.0,747100.0,772800.0,709300.0,776400.0,691200.0,724800.0,678600.0,712300.0,659400.0,631700.0,643900.0,684200.0,706800.0,730400.0,670100.0,753400.0,706800.0,704200.0,659300.0,692100.0,640700.0,613500.0,626100.0,665400.0,687300.0,710200.0,650800.0,719300.0,641200.0,672400.0,666800.0,661200.0,611400.0,585600.0,597800.0,634700.0,656300.0,678100.0,621400.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[190000.0,176000.0,173000.0,166000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,162000.0,166000.0,170000.0,184000.0,158000.0,174000.0,161000.0,158000.0,152000.0,164000.0,155000.0,146000.0,147000.0,152000.0,155000.0,168000.0,144000.0,160000.0,149000.0,146000.0,140000.0,152000.0,143000.0,134000.0,136000.0,140000.0,143000.0,155000.0,133000.0,148000.0,137000.0,135000.0,129000.0,140000.0,132000.0,124000.0,125000.0,129000.0,132000.0,143000.0,123000.0,155000.0,143000.0,150000.0,145000.0,146000.0,138000.0,130000.0,131000.0,135000.0,138000.0,149000.0,128000.0,140000.0,128000.0,125000.0,120000.0,130000.0,123000.0,116000.0,117000.0,120000.0,123000.0,133000.0,115000.0,127000.0,117000.0,114000.0,110000.0,119000.0,112000.0,105000.0,106000.0,110000.0,112000.0,121000.0,104000.0,115000.0,105000.0,103000.0,99000.0,107000.0,101000.0,95000.0,96000.0,99000.0,101000.0,109000.0,94000.0,104000.0,95000.0,93000.0,89000.0,97000.0,91000.0,86000.0,87000.0,89000.0,91000.0,98000.0,85000.0,94000.0,85000.0,84000.0,80000.0,87000.0,82000.0,77000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,89000.0,76000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[258000.0,237000.0,246000.0,231000.0,252000.0,224000.0,219000.0,214000.0,251000.0,239000.0,258000.0,208000.0,252000.0,230000.0,238000.0,225000.0,249000.0,218000.0,244000.0,209000.0,243000.0,231000.0,229000.0,202000.0,249000.0,222000.0,230000.0,217000.0,236000.0,210000.0,205000.0,201000.0,234000.0,224000.0,221000.0,195000.0,238000.0,221000.0,219000.0,213000.0,229000.0,206000.0,201000.0,197000.0,285000.0,268000.0,216000.0,232000.0,255000.0,212000.0,289000.0,261000.0,238000.0,198000.0,192000.0,194000.0,226000.0,215000.0,212000.0,188000.0,231000.0,210000.0,217000.0,232000.0,222000.0,199000.0,194000.0,190000.0,221000.0,211000.0,224000.0,185000.0,222000.0,206000.0,203000.0,198000.0,214000.0,191000.0,187000.0,183000.0,213000.0,203000.0,228000.0,178000.0,235000.0,191000.0,198000.0,187000.0,203000.0,181000.0,177000.0,174000.0,202000.0,233000.0,205000.0,168000.0,197000.0,213000.0,219000.0,199000.0,189000.0,170000.0,166000.0,163000.0,190000.0,181000.0,173000.0,158000.0,216000.0,166000.0,172000.0,162000.0,176000.0,158000.0,154000.0,151000.0,175000.0,168000.0,165000.0,147000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[185000.0,163000.0,165000.0,166000.0,173000.0,161000.0,158000.0,160000.0,168000.0,170000.0,175000.0,163000.0,189000.0,167000.0,169000.0,170000.0,177000.0,165000.0,162000.0,163000.0,172000.0,174000.0,179000.0,167000.0,196000.0,173000.0,174000.0,176000.0,183000.0,171000.0,167000.0,169000.0,183000.0,185000.0,189000.0,173000.0,205000.0,180000.0,182000.0,184000.0,192000.0,179000.0,179000.0,191000.0,214000.0,207000.0,203000.0,184000.0,226000.0,205000.0,241000.0,264000.0,258000.0,217000.0,202000.0,199000.0,205000.0,207000.0,213000.0,205000.0,235000.0,208000.0,210000.0,212000.0,220000.0,205000.0,201000.0,203000.0,214000.0,216000.0,223000.0,208000.0,216000.0,190000.0,192000.0,194000.0,202000.0,188000.0,184000.0,186000.0,196000.0,198000.0,204000.0,190000.0,196000.0,173000.0,174000.0,176000.0,183000.0,171000.0,167000.0,169000.0,178000.0,180000.0,185000.0,173000.0,185000.0,155000.0,157000.0,158000.0,165000.0,154000.0,150000.0,152000.0,160000.0,162000.0,166000.0,155000.0,161000.0,142000.0,143000.0,145000.0,150000.0,140000.0,137000.0,139000.0,146000.0,148000.0,152000.0,142000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[163000.0,152000.0,162000.0,163000.0,174000.0,157000.0,150000.0,147000.0,162000.0,171000.0,175000.0,144000.0,169000.0,158000.0,168000.0,169000.0,181000.0,163000.0,156000.0,153000.0,168000.0,178000.0,182000.0,150000.0,174000.0,162000.0,173000.0,174000.0,186000.0,168000.0,161000.0,157000.0,173000.0,183000.0,187000.0,155000.0,178000.0,166000.0,177000.0,178000.0,190000.0,173000.0,169000.0,163000.0,193000.0,199000.0,204000.0,165000.0,183000.0,176000.0,223000.0,236000.0,220000.0,190000.0,176000.0,170000.0,181000.0,191000.0,197000.0,161000.0,190000.0,178000.0,190000.0,193000.0,199000.0,183000.0,173000.0,169000.0,186000.0,197000.0,202000.0,166000.0,196000.0,183000.0,196000.0,198000.0,207000.0,190000.0,181000.0,176000.0,193000.0,204000.0,209000.0,171000.0,202000.0,189000.0,202000.0,204000.0,213000.0,196000.0,195000.0,182000.0,200000.0,211000.0,216000.0,177000.0,208000.0,194000.0,208000.0,210000.0,219000.0,202000.0,192000.0,188000.0,206000.0,217000.0,222000.0,182000.0,218000.0,201000.0,212000.0,215000.0,224000.0,207000.0,198000.0,193000.0,212000.0,223000.0,229000.0,188000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[160000.0,150000.0,155000.0,150000.0,148000.0,140000.0,142000.0,145000.0,150000.0,152000.0,150000.0,145000.0,158000.0,145000.0,152000.0,146000.0,145000.0,138000.0,140000.0,143000.0,148000.0,150000.0,148000.0,142000.0,155000.0,142000.0,150000.0,145000.0,143000.0,135000.0,138000.0,140000.0,146000.0,148000.0,145000.0,140000.0,152000.0,140000.0,148000.0,143000.0,140000.0,132000.0,135000.0,138000.0,145000.0,150000.0,146000.0,140000.0,150000.0,142000.0,160000.0,155000.0,145000.0,135000.0,135000.0,132000.0,138000.0,140000.0,138000.0,132000.0,142000.0,130000.0,138000.0,133000.0,130000.0,122000.0,124000.0,126000.0,132000.0,134000.0,132000.0,126000.0,136000.0,124000.0,132000.0,126000.0,124000.0,116000.0,118000.0,120000.0,126000.0,128000.0,125000.0,120000.0,130000.0,118000.0,126000.0,120000.0,118000.0,110000.0,112000.0,114000.0,120000.0,122000.0,119000.0,114000.0,124000.0,113000.0,120000.0,114000.0,112000.0,105000.0,107000.0,109000.0,115000.0,117000.0,114000.0,109000.0,118000.0,107000.0,114000.0,109000.0,107000.0,100000.0,102000.0,104000.0,110000.0,112000.0,109000.0,104000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[625000.0,412000.0,318000.0,286000.0,371000.0,267000.0,253000.0,289000.0,341000.0,316000.0,291000.0,274000.0,667000.0,431000.0,332000.0,298000.0,388000.0,279000.0,263000.0,301000.0,354000.0,330000.0,303000.0,286000.0,692000.0,444000.0,344000.0,309000.0,402000.0,289000.0,272000.0,313000.0,368000.0,343000.0,315000.0,297000.0,718000.0,457000.0,355000.0,319000.0,417000.0,300000.0,283000.0,326000.0,383000.0,358000.0,328000.0,309000.0,813000.0,655000.0,498000.0,397000.0,492000.0,334000.0,298000.0,336000.0,394000.0,361000.0,335000.0,307000.0,828000.0,512000.0,394000.0,336000.0,441000.0,311000.0,287000.0,319000.0,369000.0,340000.0,315000.0,296000.0,741000.0,441000.0,331000.0,286000.0,458000.0,297000.0,272000.0,298000.0,341000.0,320000.0,296000.0,274000.0,615000.0,371000.0,272000.0,238000.0,348000.0,229000.0,208000.0,235000.0,272000.0,255000.0,236000.0,221000.0,513000.0,312000.0,230000.0,203000.0,287000.0,192000.0,176000.0,197000.0,228000.0,214000.0,199000.0,184000.0,453000.0,276000.0,203000.0,181000.0,253000.0,170000.0,156000.0,175000.0,204000.0,190000.0,178000.0,165000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[112000.0,101000.0,105000.0,100000.0,106000.0,101000.0,99000.0,102000.0,100000.0,103000.0,108000.0,97000.0,109000.0,98000.0,102000.0,97000.0,103000.0,98000.0,96000.0,99000.0,97000.0,100000.0,105000.0,94000.0,106000.0,96000.0,99000.0,94000.0,100000.0,95000.0,93000.0,96000.0,94000.0,97000.0,102000.0,91000.0,103000.0,94000.0,98000.0,93000.0,99000.0,94000.0,92000.0,95000.0,93000.0,96000.0,101000.0,90000.0,105000.0,98000.0,104000.0,103000.0,108000.0,102000.0,99000.0,102000.0,101000.0,104000.0,110000.0,97000.0,107000.0,98000.0,102000.0,97000.0,103000.0,98000.0,96000.0,99000.0,97000.0,100000.0,105000.0,94000.0,101000.0,93000.0,96000.0,91000.0,97000.0,92000.0,90000.0,93000.0,91000.0,94000.0,99000.0,88000.0,98000.0,90000.0,93000.0,88000.0,94000.0,89000.0,87000.0,90000.0,88000.0,91000.0,96000.0,85000.0,95000.0,87000.0,90000.0,85000.0,91000.0,86000.0,84000.0,87000.0,85000.0,88000.0,93000.0,82000.0,92000.0,84000.0,87000.0,82000.0,88000.0,83000.0,81000.0,84000.0,82000.0,85000.0,90000.0,79000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[23760.0,23540.0,23320.0,22440.0,22220.0,20900.0,20240.0,20460.0,22660.0,22880.0,22440.0,19800.0,22680.0,22470.0,22260.0,21420.0,21210.0,19950.0,19320.0,19530.0,21630.0,21840.0,21420.0,18900.0,21600.0,21400.0,21200.0,20400.0,20200.0,19000.0,18400.0,18600.0,20600.0,20800.0,20400.0,18000.0,20520.0,20330.0,20140.0,19380.0,19190.0,18050.0,17480.0,17670.0,19570.0,19760.0,19380.0,17100.0,21060.0,20865.0,21450.0,20280.0,20000.0,18525.0,17940.0,18135.0,20085.0,20280.0,19890.0,17550.0,19440.0,19260.0,19080.0,18360.0,18180.0,17100.0,16560.0,16740.0,18540.0,18720.0,18360.0,16200.0,18360.0,18190.0,18020.0,17340.0,17170.0,16150.0,15640.0,15810.0,17510.0,17680.0,17340.0,15300.0,16740.0,16585.0,16430.0,15810.0,15655.0,14725.0,14260.0,14415.0,15965.0,16120.0,15810.0,13950.0,15660.0,15515.0,15370.0,14790.0,14645.0,13775.0,13340.0,13485.0,14935.0,15080.0,14790.0,13050.0,14580.0,14445.0,14310.0,13770.0,13635.0,12825.0,12420.0,12555.0,13905.0,14040.0,13770.0,12150.0]}},{"title":"The French Connection (film)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"The French Connection (film)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[38552,35048,36990,27088,33020,43781,27960,25977,37856,26673,22829,26685,27220,32542,44312,30832,24806,26725,33230,27441,29475,27131,29351,32398,33517,28568,35824,29432,26015,27177,30906,35354,27437,30718,28911,27393,27436,32894,27050,23664,34158,22884,26230,34295,24005,27853,25546,24122,36536,33708,38474,60496,53308,38615,44468,39646,34967,33965,38481,36151,45400,37756,43471,39456,55481,48286,54324,47706,35230,47417,66705,40098,60541,45233,47133,40124,34323,32807,40418,34588,31038,28907,34516,31884,44143,32377,62140,32973,36811,76158,53241,117146,63524,62399,46086,44568,69976,55133,49670,42102,37403,42259,47046,63330,42801,39773,38243,38610,48062,172780,278568,49378,44582,42194,46286,42876,37538,33685,33196,33932],"flat_reference_value":16892.213202298633,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[18500.0,17800.0,19300.0,17400.0,16900.0,16200.0,17000.0,18100.0,17600.0,19800.0,19000.0,20500.0,21100.0,20800.0,21800.0,19000.0,18300.0,17700.0,18500.0,19400.0,18800.0,21000.0,20200.0,21900.0,22500.0,21200.0,23000.0,20500.0,19700.0,18900.0,19700.0,20500.0,19900.0,22100.0,21300.0,22800.0,23400.0,22000.0,24100.0,21500.0,20700.0,19900.0,20800.0,21700.0,21000.0,23500.0,22400.0,24000.0,24700.0,23500.0,26000.0,27300.0,25800.0,23700.0,23100.0,24000.0,22600.0,24700.0,23900.0,25500.0,26000.0,24200.0,25500.0,23500.0,22500.0,21700.0,22400.0,23300.0,24000.0,35000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26700.0,24800.0,26500.0,24000.0,23100.0,22400.0,23200.0,24100.0,23300.0,25700.0,24600.0,26300.0,27200.0,25500.0,27000.0,24600.0,24000.0,37000.0,28500.0,90000.0,36000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27500.0,28500.0,26300.0,28000.0,25500.0,24800.0,28000.0,24500.0,25500.0,24600.0,27000.0,26000.0,27800.0,30000.0,110000.0,160000.0,47000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28500.0,27000.0,29500.0,28000.0,30000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[61200.0,63500.0,58400.0,52100.0,50800.0,48900.0,51400.0,50600.0,49200.0,52700.0,53100.0,56800.0,62400.0,65900.0,59300.0,53600.0,51900.0,49800.0,53200.0,52100.0,50400.0,54100.0,54800.0,57900.0,63100.0,61800.0,64200.0,62900.0,52400.0,49700.0,52800.0,51900.0,50300.0,53600.0,54500.0,58200.0,62700.0,64800.0,59600.0,54200.0,52900.0,51100.0,54300.0,53800.0,51600.0,55200.0,56400.0,60100.0,74800.0,68500.0,73200.0,82400.0,78900.0,66700.0,64300.0,63100.0,59800.0,62500.0,63400.0,67800.0,71200.0,66400.0,68100.0,67300.0,61200.0,57400.0,58900.0,57600.0,56800.0,84500.0,62900.0,63700.0,66800.0,61500.0,65400.0,57200.0,54600.0,52300.0,55100.0,54200.0,51900.0,54800.0,55600.0,58900.0,69400.0,60800.0,64700.0,55900.0,54100.0,138500.0,68200.0,214000.0,79400.0,63800.0,58200.0,60400.0,63900.0,59700.0,63200.0,53400.0,51200.0,76800.0,54900.0,53100.0,49800.0,52400.0,53200.0,56700.0,59800.0,218000.0,276000.0,81500.0,58400.0,51900.0,51200.0,49600.0,47300.0,49100.0,49800.0,53400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[42100.0,39500.0,38200.0,36700.0,37400.0,35800.0,36200.0,35100.0,34900.0,41200.0,39800.0,42500.0,41300.0,38900.0,37600.0,36100.0,35500.0,34800.0,36400.0,35200.0,33900.0,37800.0,38400.0,40100.0,39600.0,37200.0,38500.0,35900.0,35100.0,33800.0,34900.0,34200.0,33500.0,36700.0,37900.0,39800.0,39100.0,36400.0,37200.0,35800.0,34600.0,33200.0,34500.0,33900.0,32800.0,36100.0,37400.0,39000.0,48200.0,40100.0,44800.0,54200.0,49100.0,39500.0,38600.0,37200.0,36400.0,38900.0,40500.0,41800.0,41200.0,37800.0,38400.0,36200.0,35700.0,34800.0,35900.0,35100.0,36800.0,58400.0,44200.0,42100.0,41500.0,37600.0,38100.0,35400.0,34900.0,33700.0,35200.0,34100.0,33400.0,36800.0,37500.0,39200.0,39800.0,36500.0,37200.0,36100.0,37900.0,104500.0,52100.0,194000.0,62800.0,46500.0,41200.0,40100.0,42800.0,38200.0,37900.0,35600.0,34800.0,33500.0,34700.0,36200.0,33100.0,36400.0,37200.0,38900.0,39400.0,36100.0,36800.0,34500.0,33900.0,32800.0,33600.0,34200.0,32500.0,35300.0,36100.0,37800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,32000.0,29000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,38000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,75000.0,30000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,70000.0,110000.0,35000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[78000.0,76000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,66000.0,65000.0,63000.0,65000.0,66000.0,70000.0,74000.0,70000.0,70000.0,66000.0,65000.0,63000.0,66000.0,65000.0,62000.0,63000.0,64000.0,68000.0,72000.0,66000.0,67000.0,63000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,61000.0,62000.0,66000.0,70000.0,64000.0,65000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,63000.0,63000.0,60000.0,62000.0,66000.0,70000.0,76000.0,70000.0,78000.0,92000.0,90000.0,80000.0,80000.0,78000.0,72000.0,72000.0,74000.0,80000.0,86000.0,78000.0,78000.0,74000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,72000.0,70000.0,80000.0,76000.0,76000.0,78000.0,70000.0,72000.0,68000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,68000.0,64000.0,65000.0,66000.0,70000.0,74000.0,68000.0,70000.0,68000.0,68000.0,115000.0,82000.0,190000.0,85000.0,75000.0,72000.0,74000.0,76000.0,70000.0,70000.0,66000.0,66000.0,64000.0,66000.0,66000.0,63000.0,64000.0,65000.0,68000.0,74000.0,260000.0,230000.0,95000.0,82000.0,74000.0,72000.0,70000.0,66000.0,66000.0,66000.0,68000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10400.0,9900.0,9700.0,10100.0,9500.0,9300.0,9100.0,9400.0,9500.0,10300.0,9800.0,11300.0,10700.0,9900.0,9800.0,9900.0,9400.0,9200.0,9300.0,9600.0,9700.0,10100.0,9700.0,11100.0,10500.0,9800.0,9700.0,9800.0,9300.0,9100.0,9200.0,9500.0,9400.0,9900.0,9600.0,10900.0,10300.0,9700.0,9400.0,9600.0,9100.0,8900.0,9000.0,9200.0,9000.0,9500.0,9300.0,10500.0,10100.0,9600.0,12600.0,13200.0,11900.0,10600.0,10100.0,9900.0,9700.0,10300.0,10000.0,11600.0,10700.0,10000.0,9800.0,10100.0,9600.0,9300.0,9400.0,9600.0,10000.0,12800.0,10900.0,12100.0,11100.0,10600.0,10900.0,12300.0,10300.0,9900.0,10000.0,9800.0,9900.0,11100.0,10300.0,11900.0,11300.0,10700.0,11000.0,10600.0,10100.0,9800.0,9900.0,152000.0,39000.0,22000.0,17000.0,14800.0,12400.0,11700.0,12000.0,12800.0,10600.0,10100.0,10200.0,10400.0,10100.0,10700.0,10300.0,11900.0,11600.0,435000.0,168000.0,44000.0,25000.0,19000.0,16500.0,15000.0,14000.0,14600.0,13500.0,15000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[17832.0,17145.0,15890.0,14923.0,15411.0,14207.0,13895.0,14672.0,16108.0,17054.0,15987.0,17120.0,16620.0,15580.0,15134.0,14012.0,14480.0,13255.0,13018.0,13792.0,14876.0,16021.0,15044.0,15933.0,15512.0,14503.0,14187.0,13095.0,13540.0,12418.0,12177.0,12834.0,13852.0,14963.0,14011.0,14888.0,14972.0,13984.0,13651.0,12640.0,13002.0,11987.0,11745.0,12398.0,13374.0,14420.0,13562.0,14351.0,14458.0,13802.0,15834.0,16210.0,14955.0,11843.0,11289.0,11962.0,12891.0,13877.0,13054.0,13840.0,13912.0,12987.0,12633.0,11702.0,12045.0,11098.0,10876.0,11492.0,12411.0,19234.0,12588.0,13302.0,13375.0,12462.0,12148.0,11231.0,11572.0,10645.0,10412.0,11035.0,11879.0,12821.0,12053.0,12768.0,12814.0,11902.0,11637.0,10788.0,11123.0,28473.0,10241.0,94862.0,24381.0,12348.0,11592.0,12215.0,12267.0,11384.0,11152.0,10293.0,10608.0,9745.0,9532.0,10118.0,10876.0,11742.0,11048.0,11705.0,11984.0,148327.0,111842.0,25734.0,13200.0,9750.0,9488.0,10065.0,10932.0,11687.0,11094.0,11730.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[22400.0,20700.0,19900.0,19200.0,18300.0,17400.0,17100.0,17800.0,18800.0,19700.0,19900.0,21600.0,23300.0,21500.0,20600.0,19700.0,19000.0,18100.0,17800.0,18300.0,19400.0,20300.0,20600.0,22300.0,24100.0,22300.0,21500.0,20600.0,19800.0,18800.0,18500.0,19100.0,20200.0,21100.0,21400.0,23200.0,25000.0,23100.0,22100.0,21300.0,20400.0,19600.0,19100.0,19600.0,20800.0,21700.0,22100.0,23900.0,27100.0,25000.0,25400.0,28300.0,27000.0,25100.0,23900.0,23400.0,23800.0,23600.0,24300.0,26000.0,26600.0,24500.0,23600.0,22600.0,21700.0,20800.0,20300.0,20900.0,22300.0,31500.0,26200.0,25500.0,25800.0,23800.0,22900.0,21900.0,21100.0,20200.0,19700.0,20200.0,21500.0,22400.0,22900.0,24700.0,25900.0,23800.0,22800.0,21900.0,21100.0,20200.0,19800.0,43500.0,24700.0,22500.0,22800.0,24600.0,26700.0,24600.0,23700.0,22700.0,21900.0,20900.0,20400.0,21000.0,22300.0,23300.0,23700.0,25500.0,28600.0,90000.0,60000.0,28200.0,24200.0,22900.0,22300.0,22900.0,24100.0,25300.0,26100.0,28000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[19000.0,18500.0,19500.0,19000.0,18800.0,18000.0,17800.0,18400.0,19200.0,20200.0,19600.0,19000.0,18800.0,18100.0,19100.0,18500.0,18200.0,17500.0,17200.0,17800.0,18600.0,19600.0,19000.0,18400.0,18200.0,17500.0,18500.0,17900.0,17600.0,16900.0,16600.0,17200.0,18000.0,19000.0,18400.0,17800.0,17600.0,16900.0,17900.0,17300.0,17000.0,16300.0,16000.0,16600.0,17400.0,18400.0,17800.0,17200.0,17200.0,16800.0,19000.0,20500.0,19800.0,18500.0,17800.0,18400.0,19000.0,19600.0,19000.0,18400.0,18400.0,17800.0,18700.0,18100.0,17800.0,17100.0,16800.0,17400.0,18400.0,38000.0,28000.0,20500.0,19200.0,18500.0,19400.0,18800.0,18500.0,17800.0,17500.0,18100.0,18900.0,19900.0,19300.0,18700.0,18500.0,17800.0,18700.0,18100.0,17800.0,17100.0,16800.0,110000.0,55000.0,23000.0,20500.0,19200.0,18500.0,17800.0,18700.0,18100.0,17800.0,17100.0,16800.0,17400.0,18200.0,19200.0,18600.0,18000.0,17800.0,320000.0,150000.0,50000.0,27000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18400.0,19000.0,20000.0,19400.0,18800.0],"meta/muse-ember":[5550.0,6150.0,5900.0,5750.0,5850.0,6200.0,6400.0,6250.0,5950.0,6000.0,5650.0,5400.0,5350.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,5650.0,6000.0,6200.0,6050.0,5750.0,5800.0,5450.0,5200.0,5150.0,5700.0,5600.0,5350.0,5800.0,6150.0,5950.0,5800.0,5500.0,5550.0,5300.0,5050.0,4950.0,5450.0,5400.0,5150.0,5250.0,5550.0,5750.0,5600.0,5300.0,5350.0,5050.0,4800.0,5150.0,6100.0,6200.0,6100.0,5950.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,5500.0,5600.0,5300.0,5100.0,4950.0,5450.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,5550.0,5800.0,5650.0,5350.0,6150.0,5100.0,4850.0,4750.0,5250.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5350.0,5550.0,5450.0,5150.0,5200.0,4900.0,4650.0,5800.0,5100.0,5050.0,4850.0,4900.0,5200.0,5350.0,18500.0,9500.0,6400.0,4750.0,4500.0,4450.0,4950.0,4900.0,4650.0,4750.0,5800.0,5200.0,5050.0,4800.0,4850.0,4550.0,4350.0,4300.0,12500.0,28500.0,8800.0,5200.0,4850.0,5000.0,4900.0,4650.0,4700.0,4400.0,4200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[5460.0,5820.0,5720.0,5200.0,4940.0,4680.0,4580.0,4680.0,5040.0,7400.0,5460.0,5820.0,5880.0,6270.0,6160.0,5600.0,5320.0,5040.0,4930.0,5040.0,5430.0,5880.0,5880.0,6270.0,6300.0,6720.0,6600.0,6000.0,5700.0,5400.0,5280.0,5400.0,5820.0,6300.0,6300.0,6720.0,6720.0,7170.0,7040.0,6400.0,6080.0,5760.0,5630.0,5760.0,6210.0,6720.0,6720.0,7170.0,7140.0,7620.0,9400.0,10200.0,9370.0,9200.0,8380.0,8570.0,8900.0,9640.0,10000.0,11000.0,10370.0,11070.0,10700.0,9500.0,8810.0,8210.0,7890.0,8070.0,11800.0,20700.0,12370.0,12800.0,7560.0,8060.0,7920.0,7200.0,6840.0,6480.0,6340.0,6480.0,6980.0,7560.0,7560.0,8060.0,7140.0,7620.0,7480.0,6800.0,6460.0,6120.0,5980.0,24000.0,12000.0,8900.0,7140.0,7620.0,6620.0,7060.0,6930.0,6300.0,5990.0,5670.0,5540.0,5670.0,6110.0,6620.0,6620.0,7060.0,6200.0,7900.0,6490.0,5900.0,5610.0,5310.0,5190.0,5310.0,5720.0,6200.0,6200.0,6610.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[9400.0,10100.0,13300.0,9000.0,8200.0,7700.0,7300.0,7500.0,8100.0,8700.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,9700.0,9600.0,8500.0,7800.0,7400.0,7100.0,7300.0,7800.0,8300.0,8900.0,10500.0,8700.0,9400.0,9000.0,8200.0,7500.0,7100.0,6800.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8400.0,9100.0,8700.0,7900.0,7300.0,6900.0,6600.0,6800.0,7200.0,7700.0,8200.0,8000.0,9000.0,9700.0,10500.0,10800.0,9900.0,10800.0,9100.0,9000.0,9500.0,9900.0,10800.0,11100.0,10500.0,11200.0,18500.0,11000.0,9700.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10600.0,10300.0,9700.0,10300.0,10000.0,9000.0,8300.0,7900.0,7500.0,7700.0,8200.0,8700.0,9200.0,8900.0,9300.0,10000.0,9700.0,8700.0,8000.0,7600.0,7300.0,22500.0,13500.0,8700.0,9100.0,8800.0,9100.0,9800.0,9500.0,8800.0,8100.0,7700.0,7400.0,7600.0,8100.0,8600.0,9000.0,8700.0,10000.0,38000.0,23500.0,12500.0,9200.0,8700.0,8300.0,8500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9900.0,9500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,4800.0,3200.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[102000.0,92000.0,86000.0,81000.0,76000.0,81000.0,96000.0,99000.0,76000.0,102000.0,101000.0,121000.0,107000.0,96000.0,88000.0,83000.0,78000.0,83000.0,99000.0,104000.0,79000.0,162000.0,107000.0,128000.0,112000.0,100000.0,93000.0,88000.0,82000.0,88000.0,104000.0,109000.0,82000.0,112000.0,111000.0,135000.0,118000.0,104000.0,96000.0,91000.0,86000.0,91000.0,109000.0,113000.0,86000.0,118000.0,117000.0,142000.0,138000.0,123000.0,193000.0,207000.0,182000.0,123000.0,143000.0,148000.0,106000.0,153000.0,187000.0,211000.0,162000.0,133000.0,128000.0,123000.0,113000.0,118000.0,143000.0,148000.0,113000.0,306000.0,153000.0,182000.0,138000.0,113000.0,104000.0,99000.0,94000.0,99000.0,118000.0,123000.0,94000.0,128000.0,128000.0,152000.0,128000.0,108000.0,99000.0,94000.0,89000.0,94000.0,113000.0,118000.0,89000.0,128000.0,127000.0,158000.0,123000.0,104000.0,99000.0,94000.0,89000.0,94000.0,113000.0,118000.0,89000.0,123000.0,123000.0,148000.0,126000.0,1200000.0,385000.0,255000.0,185000.0,135000.0,118000.0,124000.0,92000.0,128000.0,128000.0,155000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3100.0,3600.0,3400.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3500.0,3300.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3000.0,3400.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,2900.0,3300.0,3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3500.0,3300.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,4200.0,3900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3900.0,3100.0,3400.0,3200.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,14500.0,4700.0,3200.0,2900.0,3300.0,3100.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2900.0,2700.0,3100.0,3000.0,42000.0,8500.0,4300.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3100.0,3500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1370.0,1370.0,1370.0,1300.0,1260.0,1210.0,1170.0,1200.0,1300.0,1330.0,1300.0,1240.0,1260.0,1260.0,1260.0,1200.0,1160.0,1120.0,1080.0,1100.0,1200.0,1220.0,1200.0,1140.0,1210.0,1210.0,1210.0,1150.0,1120.0,1070.0,1040.0,1060.0,1150.0,1170.0,1150.0,1090.0,1130.0,1130.0,1130.0,1080.0,1050.0,1000.0,970.0,990.0,1080.0,1100.0,1080.0,1030.0,1200.0,1200.0,1280.0,1300.0,1250.0,1180.0,1080.0,1080.0,1130.0,1170.0,1150.0,1090.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1020.0,980.0,940.0,960.0,1050.0,1450.0,1100.0,1000.0,970.0,970.0,970.0,920.0,890.0,860.0,830.0,850.0,920.0,940.0,920.0,870.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,860.0,830.0,800.0,770.0,790.0,860.0,880.0,860.0,820.0,860.0,860.0,860.0,820.0,790.0,760.0,740.0,750.0,820.0,840.0,820.0,780.0,860.0,6500.0,2800.0,1400.0,1000.0,880.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,870.0,850.0,800.0]}},{"title":"Harris Wittels","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Harris Wittels\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[56075,61311,28591,33156,24059,21051,22529,21935,43266,19357,27178,19287,33171,33548,28141,47713,124281,46595,32333,46539,35902,27930,25481,27205,43743,48333,36487,22161,20277,16629,19367,51611,17060,15843,16943,16793,20872,31241,16477,19209,14558,14787,22937,14212,19380,20195,57430,15691,17331,26530,17919,27952,24070,20961,16262,15162,13520,19965,11740,11850,12418,22354,15339,24363,23075,14900,10609,10979,11294,8722,10806,10216,13990,32076,10911,11585,9931,9682,9700,8530,11038,7398,8732,7727,9965,10312,12233,10922,10221,10947,9680,10166,7823,7662,7664,7252,9159,14497,14849,9182,8489,10663,8366,7942,7489,6747,8445,7108,8950,20517,14584,9250,15050,7724,7813,8692,10073,25958,8504,6721],"flat_reference_value":16965.927129403328,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[19000.0,32000.0,18500.0,15500.0,14800.0,14000.0,14500.0,13800.0,13200.0,14100.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,22500.0,13500.0,12000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11800.0,11200.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,18500.0,11600.0,10200.0,10500.0,9800.0,10100.0,9800.0,9700.0,10300.0,9600.0,9900.0,10500.0,16000.0,10200.0,9400.0,9600.0,9000.0,9300.0,9100.0,9000.0,9600.0,8900.0,9300.0,9800.0,15500.0,10500.0,12500.0,12000.0,10800.0,10500.0,10100.0,9800.0,10200.0,9500.0,9800.0,10200.0,15000.0,9500.0,8800.0,9000.0,8500.0,8700.0,8500.0,8300.0,8800.0,8100.0,8500.0,8800.0,13000.0,8500.0,7800.0,8100.0,7600.0,7900.0,7800.0,7600.0,8100.0,7400.0,7800.0,8000.0,12000.0,7800.0,7200.0,7600.0,7000.0,7300.0,7100.0,7000.0,7500.0,6900.0,7200.0,7500.0,11000.0,7300.0,6800.0,7000.0,6600.0,6900.0,6700.0,6600.0,7100.0,6500.0,6800.0,7200.0,17000.0,8000.0,6500.0,6800.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,6800.0,6200.0,6500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[24800.0,53400.0,25900.0,22100.0,20800.0,19500.0,20200.0,19100.0,18400.0,18900.0,18200.0,18700.0,19400.0,29600.0,19200.0,17800.0,24500.0,20100.0,18300.0,17400.0,16600.0,16900.0,16500.0,17200.0,18600.0,114000.0,66500.0,33200.0,24800.0,21100.0,19800.0,18500.0,17300.0,16800.0,16400.0,17100.0,17500.0,26400.0,17200.0,15900.0,15600.0,15200.0,20400.0,16700.0,15100.0,14900.0,14600.0,15300.0,15800.0,33800.0,17400.0,23600.0,28900.0,19700.0,18400.0,17800.0,18200.0,17900.0,15800.0,16100.0,16300.0,22500.0,15400.0,14300.0,14800.0,13900.0,13700.0,13400.0,12800.0,12900.0,12500.0,13100.0,13400.0,19200.0,13100.0,12200.0,11900.0,11500.0,11800.0,11600.0,11100.0,11300.0,10900.0,11200.0,11600.0,16800.0,11400.0,10700.0,10500.0,10200.0,10600.0,10300.0,9800.0,9900.0,9600.0,9900.0,10200.0,15400.0,10100.0,9400.0,9300.0,9000.0,9400.0,9200.0,8800.0,8900.0,8700.0,9100.0,9500.0,36200.0,12800.0,9600.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,8900.0,8500.0,8600.0,8400.0,8700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[18200.0,31500.0,19400.0,17100.0,16200.0,15400.0,14800.0,15100.0,14300.0,13900.0,14600.0,14200.0,15300.0,21800.0,14900.0,14100.0,16800.0,13700.0,13200.0,12900.0,12500.0,12200.0,13100.0,12800.0,13400.0,18200.0,13600.0,14100.0,15300.0,32800.0,22100.0,15600.0,13400.0,12500.0,12100.0,11800.0,12400.0,17100.0,12200.0,12800.0,11900.0,11300.0,11100.0,10800.0,10500.0,10200.0,10600.0,10400.0,11100.0,21500.0,12600.0,13400.0,12800.0,11200.0,10700.0,10300.0,9900.0,9800.0,10100.0,9700.0,10200.0,14100.0,10000.0,9800.0,9400.0,9100.0,8900.0,8700.0,8500.0,8400.0,8800.0,8600.0,9100.0,12900.0,9300.0,9200.0,8700.0,8400.0,8200.0,8100.0,7900.0,7800.0,8100.0,8000.0,8500.0,11800.0,8600.0,8700.0,8200.0,7900.0,7700.0,7600.0,7400.0,7300.0,7700.0,7500.0,7900.0,11200.0,8100.0,8200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7300.0,7200.0,7000.0,6900.0,7200.0,7100.0,7600.0,14500.0,8300.0,8100.0,7600.0,7300.0,7100.0,7000.0,6800.0,6700.0,7100.0,6900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[13500.0,21000.0,13000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,9800.0,9500.0,9500.0,9800.0,14500.0,9500.0,8800.0,8500.0,8200.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,7800.0,7600.0,7400.0,7800.0,22000.0,14000.0,9500.0,8500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7300.0,7000.0,7000.0,6800.0,6700.0,6800.0,9800.0,7200.0,7800.0,7500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,5900.0,8200.0,6500.0,7200.0,6900.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5300.0,5400.0,7200.0,5400.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,6000.0,4400.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,5000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,4300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,6500.0,3300.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[52000.0,56000.0,47000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,43000.0,42000.0,39000.0,37000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,35000.0,37000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,33000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,32000.0,35000.0,36000.0,40000.0,52000.0,55000.0,46000.0,44000.0,41000.0,37000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2450.0,5100.0,2600.0,2750.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2250.0,2100.0,2300.0,2000.0,3300.0,2000.0,2150.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1850.0,1800.0,2900.0,1750.0,2600.0,1900.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1600.0,1600.0,2600.0,1600.0,2300.0,1700.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1550.0,1500.0,3200.0,1700.0,2300.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1350.0,1450.0,1400.0,2100.0,1400.0,1450.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1600.0,1750.0,1400.0,1450.0,1350.0,1950.0,1350.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0,1150.0,1700.0,1150.0,1150.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,950.0,1050.0,1050.0,1550.0,1000.0,1050.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,850.0,950.0,1000.0,2600.0,1050.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,950.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[6200.0,10500.0,5400.0,6400.0,5100.0,4700.0,4300.0,4600.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,8600.0,4300.0,5200.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4100.0,3950.0,4200.0,7300.0,3800.0,4700.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,3700.0,3500.0,3900.0,6800.0,3500.0,4400.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,7100.0,3400.0,4200.0,4800.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,5900.0,3000.0,3700.0,2950.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2950.0,3100.0,2950.0,2800.0,3000.0,5400.0,2850.0,3400.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2750.0,2850.0,2700.0,2600.0,2850.0,5100.0,2650.0,3200.0,2600.0,2450.0,2350.0,2450.0,2600.0,2700.0,2550.0,2450.0,2700.0,4850.0,2500.0,3000.0,2450.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2450.0,2550.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,5300.0,2450.0,2950.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2350.0,2450.0,2300.0,2200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2800.0,7500.0,2700.0,2400.0,2500.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,1900.0,2200.0,5800.0,2100.0,2000.0,3200.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1700.0,1900.0,4600.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1600.0,1750.0,4100.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1500.0,1800.0,4500.0,2200.0,2900.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1750.0,1850.0,4300.0,1800.0,1750.0,2400.0,1950.0,1750.0,1700.0,1850.0,1900.0,1800.0,1650.0,1700.0,3800.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1450.0,1750.0,4000.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1700.0,1850.0,1750.0,1600.0,1850.0,4600.0,1800.0,2150.0,1850.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1800.0,1950.0,1850.0,1700.0,2000.0,6800.0,2100.0,1950.0,2050.0,1900.0,1850.0,1850.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1850.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4200.0,9500.0,4100.0,3800.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,5600.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,3400.0,6200.0,4300.0,2900.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,3700.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,6000.0,1900.0,3300.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,3200.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,2700.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,2200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1900.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,8500.0,1600.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1850.0,3400.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,2050.0,2050.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,2100.0,2150.0,1650.0,2250.0,1750.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1850.0,1900.0,1550.0,2100.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1750.0,1800.0,1650.0,2300.0,2150.0,1950.0,1800.0,1850.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1750.0,1900.0,2350.0,2000.0,3550.0,2550.0,2300.0,2650.0,2300.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2100.0,2250.0,2300.0,2500.0,2650.0,2050.0,2000.0,2050.0,2100.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,2000.0,2150.0,2200.0,1700.0,2350.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1950.0,2000.0,1600.0,2250.0,1700.0,1700.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1750.0,1700.0,1850.0,1900.0,1700.0,2350.0,1800.0,1800.0,2400.0,1900.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,1950.0,2000.0,1800.0,3850.0,2300.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,2000.0,2150.0,2500.0,1900.0,2050.0,2100.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2310.0,2200.0,7200.0,2200.0,2090.0,1980.0,1980.0,2020.0,2160.0,2240.0,2310.0,1870.0,2150.0,2050.0,5200.0,2600.0,1950.0,1850.0,1850.0,1890.0,2010.0,2090.0,2150.0,1740.0,2000.0,1900.0,4200.0,1900.0,1810.0,1710.0,1710.0,1750.0,1860.0,1940.0,2000.0,1620.0,1890.0,1800.0,3700.0,1800.0,1710.0,1620.0,3100.0,1900.0,1940.0,1840.0,1890.0,1530.0,1730.0,1820.0,3600.0,9500.0,5100.0,2700.0,2900.0,2300.0,2000.0,1680.0,1730.0,1400.0,1580.0,1500.0,2700.0,1500.0,1700.0,1350.0,1350.0,1380.0,1470.0,1530.0,1580.0,1280.0,1420.0,1350.0,2300.0,1350.0,1280.0,1220.0,1220.0,1240.0,1320.0,1380.0,1420.0,1150.0,1310.0,1250.0,2000.0,1250.0,1190.0,1125.0,1125.0,1150.0,1225.0,1275.0,1310.0,1060.0,1180.0,1120.0,1700.0,1340.0,1060.0,1010.0,1010.0,1030.0,1100.0,1140.0,1180.0,950.0,1050.0,1300.0,1800.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,920.0,980.0,1020.0,1050.0,850.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[360.0,315.0,385.0,470.0,430.0,455.0,375.0,410.0,1180.0,820.0,610.0,520.0,570.0,495.0,610.0,545.0,760.0,640.0,520.0,690.0,1020.0,176500.0,68400.0,34600.0,21800.0,17600.0,14300.0,12100.0,10200.0,8900.0,7700.0,8100.0,9600.0,18900.0,10300.0,8500.0,7200.0,6350.0,6000.0,5450.0,4900.0,4350.0,3850.0,4050.0,4550.0,9800.0,5100.0,4450.0,4500.0,4000.0,4900.0,4350.0,3900.0,3500.0,3100.0,3250.0,3550.0,7600.0,3850.0,3350.0,3450.0,3050.0,3300.0,2950.0,2750.0,2450.0,2200.0,2300.0,2550.0,5500.0,2750.0,2400.0,2500.0,2200.0,2350.0,2100.0,1950.0,1750.0,1600.0,1650.0,1850.0,4050.0,2000.0,1750.0,1850.0,1650.0,1700.0,1550.0,1450.0,1300.0,1200.0,1250.0,1400.0,3150.0,1550.0,1350.0,1450.0,1300.0,1350.0,1220.0,1140.0,1030.0,950.0,990.0,1100.0,2500.0,1230.0,1080.0,1150.0,1030.0,1080.0,980.0,920.0,830.0,770.0,800.0,890.0,2050.0,1000.0,870.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,4200.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,3200.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2700.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2400.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,2200.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,2100.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1900.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1800.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1700.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1700.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[900.0,5500.0,2200.0,1000.0,750.0,650.0,550.0,520.0,580.0,620.0,520.0,480.0,720.0,4200.0,1600.0,780.0,560.0,500.0,420.0,400.0,450.0,480.0,390.0,350.0,550.0,3000.0,1200.0,600.0,430.0,380.0,320.0,300.0,350.0,380.0,300.0,270.0,470.0,2300.0,950.0,480.0,340.0,300.0,260.0,240.0,280.0,310.0,240.0,220.0,430.0,1900.0,800.0,2800.0,1100.0,700.0,380.0,350.0,400.0,430.0,340.0,310.0,340.0,1300.0,600.0,380.0,280.0,250.0,210.0,200.0,230.0,260.0,210.0,185.0,280.0,1000.0,500.0,330.0,240.0,210.0,180.0,170.0,195.0,220.0,175.0,155.0,240.0,820.0,430.0,285.0,210.0,185.0,155.0,145.0,165.0,190.0,150.0,135.0,210.0,700.0,370.0,250.0,185.0,160.0,135.0,125.0,140.0,160.0,125.0,110.0,200.0,2600.0,1000.0,650.0,240.0,200.0,170.0,155.0,180.0,205.0,155.0,135.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[681.0,1520.0,880.0,700.0,650.0,690.0,640.0,620.0,690.0,720.0,650.0,590.0,610.0,1180.0,740.0,590.0,570.0,600.0,560.0,550.0,590.0,620.0,570.0,520.0,560.0,990.0,680.0,540.0,520.0,550.0,510.0,500.0,540.0,570.0,520.0,480.0,530.0,950.0,650.0,510.0,500.0,520.0,490.0,480.0,520.0,550.0,500.0,460.0,550.0,1200.0,820.0,680.0,620.0,590.0,560.0,540.0,570.0,600.0,550.0,500.0,500.0,850.0,610.0,480.0,470.0,490.0,460.0,450.0,480.0,510.0,470.0,430.0,480.0,820.0,590.0,450.0,440.0,460.0,430.0,420.0,450.0,480.0,440.0,410.0,490.0,880.0,620.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,440.0,430.0,470.0,500.0,460.0,420.0,510.0,900.0,640.0,480.0,470.0,490.0,460.0,450.0,490.0,530.0,480.0,440.0,570.0,1450.0,780.0,560.0,540.0,570.0,520.0,510.0,550.0,590.0,540.0,490.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1050.0,2100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,950.0,1550.0,950.0,920.0,920.0,880.0,850.0,850.0,880.0,900.0,900.0,930.0,850.0,1350.0,860.0,830.0,830.0,800.0,780.0,780.0,800.0,820.0,820.0,840.0,800.0,1250.0,800.0,780.0,790.0,760.0,740.0,740.0,760.0,780.0,780.0,800.0,820.0,1250.0,900.0,900.0,880.0,830.0,800.0,800.0,820.0,830.0,820.0,840.0,760.0,1150.0,760.0,740.0,740.0,710.0,690.0,690.0,710.0,720.0,720.0,740.0,720.0,1080.0,720.0,700.0,700.0,670.0,650.0,650.0,670.0,680.0,680.0,700.0,680.0,1000.0,680.0,660.0,660.0,630.0,620.0,620.0,640.0,650.0,650.0,670.0,650.0,960.0,650.0,630.0,630.0,600.0,590.0,590.0,610.0,620.0,620.0,640.0,630.0,920.0,630.0,610.0,610.0,580.0,570.0,570.0,590.0,600.0,600.0,620.0]}},{"title":"Google News","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Google News\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15552,14823,17120,15706,16009,14931,18352,18705,19519,19825,15466,11789,13073,13915,13620,12236,11974,10963,16932,15036,17356,19762,24834,25906,23119,19753,19209,16005,22692,7330,7525,8230,8602,9263,7821,10319,11364,9933,12171,12580,14643,13970,13031,17253,16960,18353,17536,20740,21397,19440,26395,22128,15115,13466,14392,15147,16502,16710,19184,18599,19030,17440,19186,14421,13930,11524,23494,338765,249811,68399,84552,18856,20041,18843,19904,15556,12165,12359,11801,10307,10936,11541,11195,10022,11072,10478,12382,8296,9221,12317,13725,14116,13156,14884,12153,12725,12636,10399,11548,10526,8762,7697,7007,6167,4844,4999,5088,8094,7528,5578,8732,13474,10934,12511,12313,12324,14241,10783,8074,8912],"flat_reference_value":16977.848866747398,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[26000.0,24500.0,27000.0,25500.0,26500.0,25000.0,23500.0,24000.0,26000.0,27500.0,32000.0,24500.0,28000.0,25500.0,27000.0,25500.0,26500.0,29000.0,24500.0,24500.0,26500.0,27000.0,26500.0,23500.0,27000.0,25000.0,27500.0,27000.0,48000.0,33000.0,27000.0,26500.0,28500.0,29000.0,28000.0,24500.0,27000.0,24500.0,26500.0,25500.0,26500.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,26000.0,27500.0,26000.0,23000.0,26000.0,25500.0,39000.0,33000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25500.0,25500.0,27500.0,30000.0,32000.0,24500.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24500.0,23000.0,23500.0,25000.0,25500.0,25000.0,22500.0,25000.0,24500.0,34000.0,26500.0,26000.0,33000.0,25000.0,23500.0,25000.0,25500.0,24500.0,22000.0,24500.0,22500.0,24500.0,23000.0,24500.0,28500.0,24000.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0,24500.0,22000.0,23500.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21500.0,22500.0,23500.0,24000.0,20500.0,22500.0,20500.0,22000.0,21500.0,22500.0,21000.0,20500.0,21000.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,19500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[31800.0,30200.0,32500.0,31900.0,30800.0,28400.0,27600.0,28900.0,32100.0,34500.0,46200.0,33400.0,32900.0,29800.0,33100.0,31700.0,30900.0,29500.0,27800.0,28300.0,30600.0,32400.0,31800.0,28700.0,30500.0,27900.0,31200.0,30400.0,54800.0,37600.0,31200.0,30100.0,31500.0,32800.0,31400.0,28900.0,31100.0,28400.0,33200.0,30700.0,29900.0,27800.0,27100.0,27900.0,30200.0,31900.0,30500.0,28100.0,30800.0,29400.0,41200.0,38500.0,34900.0,32100.0,30600.0,30900.0,32400.0,36800.0,37900.0,30200.0,36400.0,35100.0,31500.0,29400.0,28600.0,26900.0,25800.0,26400.0,28100.0,29300.0,32700.0,26500.0,27900.0,25600.0,28400.0,26800.0,26300.0,37400.0,29800.0,26700.0,31900.0,28200.0,27100.0,24600.0,26100.0,23800.0,26400.0,25100.0,24700.0,29600.0,24200.0,24500.0,25300.0,26200.0,25400.0,22800.0,24100.0,22300.0,23900.0,22800.0,29400.0,26100.0,21900.0,21600.0,22500.0,23800.0,25600.0,20400.0,21300.0,19400.0,20900.0,20100.0,19700.0,18500.0,17900.0,18200.0,19300.0,20100.0,19200.0,17600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[46200.0,42800.0,43500.0,40100.0,39400.0,38200.0,39100.0,40600.0,42300.0,45100.0,53800.0,46500.0,43100.0,39500.0,41200.0,38700.0,39300.0,37800.0,36500.0,37200.0,38900.0,39800.0,41100.0,38600.0,40500.0,37400.0,41600.0,42900.0,78200.0,61800.0,48300.0,44100.0,42500.0,43800.0,45200.0,41700.0,41300.0,38500.0,43100.0,39400.0,37600.0,36100.0,35400.0,36800.0,38200.0,39500.0,38400.0,35200.0,36400.0,35100.0,42600.0,38300.0,35200.0,33400.0,32800.0,33600.0,34900.0,36500.0,41200.0,35400.0,46800.0,48200.0,41100.0,35600.0,34200.0,33100.0,32400.0,31800.0,32500.0,33400.0,32600.0,31200.0,32100.0,33400.0,51500.0,38200.0,34100.0,44300.0,35200.0,33100.0,32400.0,31200.0,30500.0,29400.0,31200.0,28600.0,30400.0,29100.0,31500.0,28300.0,27400.0,28200.0,29100.0,31400.0,30200.0,28100.0,29500.0,28100.0,29200.0,27400.0,28300.0,26500.0,27200.0,28400.0,29600.0,31100.0,33200.0,28300.0,27800.0,26200.0,28100.0,26400.0,25700.0,25100.0,24600.0,25300.0,26400.0,27200.0,26500.0,25200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[42000.0,40500.0,41500.0,40000.0,39000.0,36500.0,35500.0,36000.0,37500.0,38500.0,40000.0,35500.0,38500.0,37000.0,38000.0,36500.0,36000.0,33500.0,32500.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34500.0,31000.0,34000.0,32500.0,33500.0,32500.0,39000.0,33000.0,30500.0,30000.0,30500.0,31000.0,30500.0,27500.0,29500.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27500.0,25500.0,25000.0,25000.0,25500.0,26000.0,25500.0,23000.0,25500.0,25000.0,30000.0,28500.0,26500.0,24500.0,23500.0,23000.0,23500.0,24000.0,25000.0,21500.0,24000.0,26500.0,23500.0,22000.0,21500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,20500.0,20000.0,18500.0,20000.0,19500.0,20500.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18500.0,17000.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18500.0,16000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,15000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,14000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,41000.0,44000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,39000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,47000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,33000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[27500.0,26200.0,27400.0,26100.0,27300.0,26200.0,25100.0,24800.0,26900.0,27600.0,26800.0,24900.0,25200.0,23900.0,25100.0,24300.0,25400.0,24100.0,23300.0,22900.0,24500.0,25200.0,24100.0,22800.0,24200.0,23200.0,24600.0,25300.0,64800.0,94600.0,47200.0,35400.0,30800.0,28500.0,27300.0,25900.0,26400.0,25100.0,26200.0,25400.0,26500.0,25200.0,24300.0,23900.0,25400.0,25600.0,24500.0,23800.0,25200.0,24100.0,29800.0,28900.0,27600.0,26200.0,25800.0,26100.0,27200.0,33800.0,30400.0,27400.0,26400.0,25200.0,26300.0,25500.0,27200.0,26400.0,28700.0,27500.0,29600.0,28300.0,27200.0,26100.0,26300.0,25100.0,26200.0,25900.0,27100.0,33800.0,36200.0,29400.0,28200.0,27900.0,26800.0,25700.0,26100.0,24900.0,26000.0,25700.0,26800.0,32900.0,34100.0,28300.0,27600.0,27400.0,26400.0,25400.0,25800.0,24600.0,25700.0,25400.0,26500.0,26300.0,26600.0,29200.0,28100.0,27600.0,26500.0,25300.0,25600.0,24400.0,25500.0,25200.0,26300.0,26000.0,25900.0,26400.0,26600.0,26400.0,25500.0,24300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[22134.0,19845.0,21872.0,20112.0,20358.0,17920.0,16844.0,17731.0,20087.0,21563.0,21019.0,18842.0,21402.0,19388.0,21145.0,19462.0,19930.0,17411.0,16680.0,17025.0,19612.0,21008.0,20551.0,18390.0,20944.0,18871.0,20633.0,18955.0,34217.0,22184.0,16203.0,16811.0,19076.0,20448.0,20012.0,17938.0,20311.0,18402.0,20054.0,18477.0,18925.0,16580.0,15812.0,16194.0,18588.0,19912.0,19481.0,17463.0,19754.0,18122.0,27485.0,20037.0,18412.0,16108.0,15244.0,15902.0,18091.0,26371.0,20948.0,17056.0,19283.0,17391.0,18964.0,17458.0,17809.0,15673.0,14921.0,15338.0,17577.0,18852.0,18420.0,16509.0,18742.0,16885.0,18411.0,16952.0,17398.0,21365.0,16412.0,15023.0,17068.0,18305.0,17911.0,16042.0,18204.0,16377.0,17889.0,20473.0,16855.0,14792.0,14088.0,14462.0,16571.0,17768.0,17390.0,15584.0,17658.0,16112.0,17324.0,15961.0,19347.0,14355.0,13672.0,14015.0,16083.0,17219.0,16854.0,15108.0,17091.0,15402.0,16798.0,15466.0,15853.0,13871.0,13240.0,13592.0,15568.0,16695.0,16321.0,14630.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[57200.0,58200.0,54600.0,52000.0,53000.0,49400.0,46800.0,45800.0,53000.0,55100.0,95000.0,58000.0,60500.0,61600.0,57800.0,55000.0,56100.0,52300.0,49500.0,48400.0,56100.0,58300.0,56700.0,47900.0,68200.0,69400.0,65100.0,62000.0,145000.0,82000.0,57600.0,56400.0,63200.0,65700.0,63900.0,53900.0,63800.0,65000.0,60900.0,58000.0,59200.0,55100.0,52200.0,51000.0,59200.0,61500.0,59700.0,50500.0,68200.0,69400.0,118000.0,95000.0,70000.0,58900.0,55800.0,54600.0,63200.0,65700.0,78000.0,53900.0,72000.0,96000.0,66000.0,58000.0,59200.0,55100.0,52200.0,51000.0,59200.0,61500.0,59700.0,50500.0,60500.0,61600.0,92000.0,68000.0,56100.0,52300.0,49500.0,48400.0,56100.0,58300.0,56700.0,47900.0,57200.0,58200.0,54600.0,52000.0,53000.0,49400.0,46800.0,45800.0,62000.0,74000.0,53600.0,45200.0,59400.0,60500.0,56700.0,54000.0,55100.0,51300.0,48600.0,84000.0,72000.0,57200.0,55600.0,47000.0,57200.0,58200.0,54600.0,52000.0,60000.0,49400.0,46800.0,45800.0,58000.0,55100.0,53600.0,45200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[40300.0,38000.0,39100.0,37200.0,38400.0,35700.0,34200.0,35000.0,38800.0,40300.0,39500.0,36900.0,44500.0,42000.0,43300.0,41200.0,42400.0,39500.0,37800.0,38600.0,42800.0,44500.0,43700.0,40700.0,53000.0,50000.0,51500.0,49000.0,140000.0,80000.0,55000.0,52000.0,56000.0,58000.0,55000.0,50000.0,55100.0,52000.0,53600.0,51000.0,52500.0,48900.0,46800.0,47800.0,53000.0,55100.0,54100.0,50400.0,61500.0,58000.0,85000.0,90000.0,75000.0,62000.0,54000.0,55000.0,61000.0,72000.0,63000.0,58000.0,65700.0,95000.0,67000.0,62000.0,64000.0,59000.0,56000.0,58000.0,64000.0,66000.0,65000.0,61000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64700.0,66700.0,95000.0,80000.0,65000.0,69000.0,71000.0,69000.0,65000.0,74200.0,70000.0,72100.0,68600.0,70700.0,85000.0,66000.0,65000.0,72000.0,74200.0,73000.0,90000.0,78400.0,74000.0,76200.0,72500.0,74700.0,69600.0,66600.0,68100.0,95000.0,80000.0,77000.0,72000.0,82700.0,78000.0,80300.0,76400.0,78800.0,73300.0,70200.0,71800.0,79600.0,82700.0,81100.0,75700.0],"meta/muse-ember":[52000.0,49000.0,47000.0,45000.0,72000.0,41000.0,38000.0,39000.0,43000.0,45000.0,68000.0,46000.0,51000.0,47000.0,64000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,50000.0,46000.0,75000.0,52000.0,44000.0,41000.0,39000.0,42000.0,44000.0,62000.0,54000.0,46000.0,48000.0,44000.0,47000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,47000.0,44000.0,85000.0,68000.0,46000.0,54000.0,58000.0,45000.0,44000.0,58000.0,70000.0,50000.0,48000.0,185000.0,85000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,44000.0,78000.0,72000.0,43000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,40000.0,40000.0,47000.0,42000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,58000.0,34000.0,35000.0,38000.0,50000.0,40000.0,60000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,46000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,36000.0,58000.0,40000.0,52000.0,38000.0,36000.0,44000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[58412.0,60233.0,66180.0,63450.0,64890.0,60112.0,55234.0,57001.0,65440.0,68210.0,78765.0,61987.0,62340.0,64112.0,70233.0,67102.0,68450.0,63890.0,59011.0,61230.0,69870.0,72340.0,73980.0,63120.0,68012.0,70230.0,76540.0,73120.0,74450.0,70011.0,65234.0,67890.0,75678.0,102340.0,88120.0,72450.0,74230.0,76110.0,84560.0,80120.0,81450.0,77230.0,71340.0,73120.0,80560.0,84890.0,85670.0,74230.0,100230.0,95120.0,131450.0,152340.0,122110.0,105670.0,95120.0,98340.0,110560.0,126780.0,163450.0,112340.0,136780.0,146230.0,116450.0,105230.0,100120.0,95340.0,88120.0,90450.0,100230.0,105670.0,108340.0,92110.0,95120.0,116780.0,126340.0,105890.0,100230.0,95670.0,88450.0,90120.0,98560.0,100890.0,102340.0,88230.0,85670.0,82340.0,88120.0,85230.0,90450.0,98560.0,92340.0,102890.0,88120.0,90670.0,92450.0,80230.0,72340.0,74120.0,80560.0,76230.0,88450.0,82340.0,76120.0,78450.0,84670.0,95890.0,106230.0,82340.0,64120.0,62340.0,68450.0,65230.0,66780.0,62890.0,58120.0,72340.0,78560.0,66230.0,64450.0,56780.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[980000.0,1020000.0,1060000.0,1080000.0,1090000.0,1060000.0,990000.0,1010000.0,1100000.0,1150000.0,1400000.0,1090000.0,1420000.0,1150000.0,1180000.0,1180000.0,1210000.0,1160000.0,1080000.0,1120000.0,1200000.0,1230000.0,1250000.0,1160000.0,1200000.0,1220000.0,1250000.0,1250000.0,1280000.0,1240000.0,1160000.0,1190000.0,1270000.0,1310000.0,1290000.0,1340000.0,1300000.0,1320000.0,1350000.0,1380000.0,1400000.0,1350000.0,1270000.0,1310000.0,1400000.0,1450000.0,1520000.0,1390000.0,1410000.0,1430000.0,2150000.0,2750000.0,2550000.0,2100000.0,1850000.0,1750000.0,1900000.0,1940000.0,2350000.0,1920000.0,2000000.0,1680000.0,1620000.0,1580000.0,1620000.0,1550000.0,1450000.0,1500000.0,1600000.0,1640000.0,1680000.0,1570000.0,1600000.0,1900000.0,2200000.0,1950000.0,1740000.0,1670000.0,1550000.0,1590000.0,1690000.0,1720000.0,1750000.0,1620000.0,1640000.0,1650000.0,1690000.0,1720000.0,1750000.0,1680000.0,1570000.0,1620000.0,1710000.0,2200000.0,1850000.0,1690000.0,1700000.0,1720000.0,1750000.0,1780000.0,1810000.0,1740000.0,1850000.0,1690000.0,1790000.0,1860000.0,2150000.0,1810000.0,2050000.0,1790000.0,1820000.0,1860000.0,1890000.0,1820000.0,1700000.0,1760000.0,1870000.0,1930000.0,1950000.0,1850000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2600.0,2600.0,2550.0,2450.0,2400.0,2300.0,2250.0,2300.0,2350.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2450.0,2450.0,2450.0,2350.0,2350.0,2250.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2350.0,2400.0,2250.0,2400.0,2400.0,2450.0,2350.0,2400.0,2200.0,2150.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2300.0,2150.0,2350.0,2350.0,2350.0,2250.0,2250.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2250.0,2250.0,2050.0,2250.0,2250.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2350.0,2400.0,2450.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2150.0,2100.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2150.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,2050.0,2050.0,1900.0,2050.0,2050.0,2050.0,2000.0,2000.0,2050.0,2000.0,2100.0,1950.0,2000.0,2000.0,1850.0,2000.0,2050.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,1950.0,1800.0,1950.0,1950.0,1950.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,1850.0,1850.0,1700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[26000.0,25000.0,24200.0,23800.0,24000.0,23300.0,22100.0,21800.0,24500.0,25200.0,24700.0,25800.0,28100.0,27000.0,26300.0,25700.0,26000.0,25200.0,23900.0,23700.0,28200.0,27300.0,26800.0,26000.0,32400.0,31200.0,30300.0,29700.0,30000.0,29100.0,27600.0,27300.0,30600.0,31500.0,30900.0,32500.0,41500.0,39500.0,38500.0,37600.0,41000.0,78000.0,56000.0,48000.0,46000.0,52000.0,47000.0,44000.0,39500.0,37500.0,50000.0,44000.0,38000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,46000.0,52000.0,48000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39500.0,38500.0,37500.0,50000.0,58000.0,46000.0,39000.0,41000.0,50000.0,43000.0,40000.0,36500.0,46000.0,41000.0,37000.0,35500.0,52000.0,39000.0,34000.0,37000.0,44000.0,39000.0,36000.0,33000.0,47000.0,42000.0,36000.0,32000.0,29500.0,27500.0,27200.0,31000.0,42000.0,37000.0,32000.0,30500.0,29200.0,28500.0,28000.0,55000.0,46000.0,34000.0,29000.0,31000.0,43000.0,36000.0,33000.0,26500.0,25000.0,24200.0,23800.0,42000.0,31000.0,24000.0,22500.0,26500.0,37000.0,29000.0,25000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[14500.0,13200.0,14000.0,13600.0,13900.0,14800.0,13700.0,14100.0,14500.0,16000.0,23800.0,16400.0,15100.0,13900.0,14400.0,14100.0,14300.0,15000.0,14000.0,14300.0,14800.0,15300.0,18900.0,15800.0,14700.0,13700.0,14200.0,13900.0,16600.0,15300.0,14000.0,14400.0,14800.0,15100.0,17600.0,15500.0,14500.0,13500.0,13900.0,13600.0,13900.0,14500.0,13500.0,13900.0,14200.0,14800.0,17300.0,15000.0,14200.0,13700.0,19600.0,23100.0,20400.0,18100.0,16700.0,16300.0,17000.0,19400.0,25200.0,17600.0,15900.0,15000.0,15800.0,15300.0,15500.0,16000.0,15100.0,15300.0,15800.0,16600.0,18700.0,15900.0,14800.0,14300.0,21300.0,16000.0,15400.0,15700.0,14800.0,15100.0,15400.0,15800.0,17900.0,15100.0,14100.0,13200.0,13700.0,13400.0,13600.0,14100.0,13200.0,13500.0,13800.0,14300.0,16300.0,13900.0,13400.0,12900.0,13500.0,13200.0,13400.0,14100.0,13300.0,13600.0,14100.0,17100.0,22100.0,15400.0,13800.0,12900.0,13400.0,13100.0,13300.0,13900.0,13000.0,13200.0,13600.0,14100.0,15700.0,13500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[48300.0,48300.0,48300.0,46000.0,46000.0,42780.0,41400.0,42320.0,46920.0,47380.0,46000.0,40480.0,52500.0,52500.0,52500.0,50000.0,50000.0,46500.0,45000.0,46000.0,51000.0,51500.0,50000.0,44000.0,54600.0,54600.0,54600.0,52000.0,52000.0,48360.0,46800.0,47840.0,53040.0,53560.0,52000.0,45760.0,56700.0,56700.0,56700.0,54000.0,54000.0,50220.0,48600.0,49680.0,55080.0,55620.0,54000.0,47520.0,63000.0,63000.0,63000.0,60000.0,60000.0,55800.0,54000.0,55200.0,61200.0,64000.0,60000.0,52800.0,69300.0,95000.0,72000.0,66000.0,66000.0,61380.0,59400.0,60720.0,67320.0,67980.0,66000.0,58080.0,60900.0,60900.0,60900.0,58000.0,58000.0,53940.0,52200.0,53360.0,59160.0,59740.0,58000.0,51040.0,54600.0,54600.0,54600.0,52000.0,52000.0,48360.0,46800.0,47840.0,53040.0,53560.0,52000.0,45760.0,47250.0,47250.0,47250.0,45000.0,45000.0,41850.0,40500.0,41400.0,45900.0,46350.0,45000.0,39600.0,39900.0,39900.0,39900.0,38000.0,38000.0,35340.0,34200.0,34960.0,38760.0,39140.0,38000.0,33440.0]}},{"title":"Earth mover's distance","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Earth mover's distance\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[1925,2035,2425,2285,2207,2141,1873,1910,2060,2320,2533,2071,2531,3811,3565,3394,3518,3461,3821,3030,2952,3801,6290,3344,3578,3473,3976,3913,4103,3769,3847,3839,3578,4287,3914,3564,4226,4367,5350,5652,5378,4193,4399,4381,4964,5254,5379,4463,4903,4744,4803,5495,5241,4749,4679,4008,4157,4602,4800,4599,4703,4569,5887,5398,5085,4456,4011,3916,3945,4332,4485,3900,4040,4222,4913,4907,4907,4371,4098,4235,4112,4469,4829,3794,4354,4797,5164,4558,4880,4598,4342,4212,4188,4342,4577,3928,4511,4264,4407,4438,4576,4056,4080,3684,3739,4013,4225,3583,4186,4167,4378,3952,3575,3059,3014,2888,3197,3547,3284,2969],"flat_reference_value":17090.237337995288,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2500.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2600.0,3000.0,3400.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,3900.0,4100.0,4400.0,4200.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,3900.0,4200.0,4300.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4600.0,4900.0,4700.0,4100.0,4400.0,4500.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4900.0,5200.0,5000.0,4400.0,4700.0,4800.0,5200.0,5300.0,5100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5100.0,5400.0,5200.0,4600.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5500.0,5300.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,5300.0,5600.0,5400.0,4800.0,5100.0,5200.0,5600.0,5700.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5500.0,5800.0,5600.0,4900.0,5200.0,5300.0,5700.0,5900.0,5700.0,5300.0,5100.0,5200.0,5600.0,6000.0,5700.0,5000.0,5300.0,5400.0,5800.0,6000.0,5800.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,5700.0,6100.0,5800.0,5100.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[5400.0,5850.0,6300.0,6450.0,6200.0,5750.0,5300.0,5450.0,6100.0,6650.0,6800.0,5900.0,6500.0,8900.0,10200.0,9850.0,9600.0,8700.0,8150.0,8300.0,8950.0,9700.0,9900.0,8450.0,8900.0,9250.0,10100.0,10300.0,9950.0,8850.0,8400.0,8550.0,9200.0,10250.0,10100.0,8500.0,9100.0,9450.0,10350.0,10450.0,10150.0,8900.0,8650.0,8500.0,9400.0,10500.0,10200.0,8650.0,9150.0,9500.0,9800.0,10400.0,10250.0,9350.0,8900.0,8700.0,9450.0,10150.0,9900.0,8550.0,8950.0,9100.0,9850.0,9750.0,9400.0,8500.0,8050.0,7950.0,8650.0,9350.0,9200.0,7900.0,8300.0,8450.0,9200.0,9050.0,8800.0,7950.0,7450.0,7550.0,8150.0,8750.0,8600.0,7250.0,7600.0,7550.0,8150.0,7800.0,7550.0,6750.0,6350.0,6400.0,6850.0,7350.0,7150.0,6050.0,6350.0,6450.0,6850.0,6750.0,6500.0,5800.0,5550.0,5500.0,5950.0,6400.0,6150.0,5250.0,5500.0,5550.0,5950.0,5850.0,5650.0,5050.0,4850.0,4800.0,5200.0,5550.0,5350.0,4600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5120.0,5780.0,6250.0,6110.0,5430.0,4350.0,4180.0,4090.0,5260.0,6390.0,6680.0,4810.0,6450.0,11300.0,15600.0,16900.0,16200.0,12600.0,12100.0,11800.0,14100.0,16700.0,17400.0,12900.0,13800.0,15400.0,16800.0,16200.0,14900.0,12100.0,11600.0,11400.0,13900.0,16200.0,16900.0,12400.0,13500.0,14800.0,15900.0,15300.0,14100.0,11200.0,10700.0,10500.0,12800.0,15100.0,15600.0,11700.0,12900.0,14200.0,13100.0,13600.0,12800.0,10400.0,9900.0,9700.0,12100.0,14200.0,14600.0,10800.0,11900.0,13100.0,14200.0,13800.0,12400.0,9900.0,9400.0,9200.0,11400.0,13300.0,13700.0,10100.0,11100.0,12300.0,13200.0,12700.0,11500.0,9100.0,8600.0,8400.0,10500.0,12200.0,12600.0,9200.0,9800.0,10800.0,11500.0,11100.0,9900.0,7900.0,7500.0,7300.0,8900.0,10400.0,10700.0,7800.0,8400.0,9300.0,9900.0,9600.0,8700.0,6900.0,6600.0,6400.0,7900.0,9100.0,9400.0,6900.0,7400.0,8200.0,8700.0,8400.0,7600.0,6100.0,5800.0,5700.0,7000.0,8100.0,8300.0,6100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[5300.0,5700.0,6000.0,5900.0,5700.0,5200.0,4900.0,4800.0,5300.0,5900.0,6000.0,4700.0,6200.0,8200.0,9000.0,8900.0,8800.0,8000.0,7700.0,7600.0,8400.0,9400.0,9700.0,7600.0,9500.0,10200.0,10900.0,10700.0,10400.0,9400.0,8900.0,8700.0,9700.0,10700.0,10900.0,8400.0,9300.0,9900.0,10400.0,10200.0,9900.0,9000.0,8500.0,8300.0,9300.0,10200.0,10400.0,8000.0,8800.0,9400.0,9800.0,9900.0,9600.0,8600.0,8100.0,7900.0,8800.0,9700.0,9900.0,7600.0,8300.0,8900.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,8000.0,7600.0,7400.0,8300.0,9100.0,9300.0,7200.0,7700.0,8200.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,7400.0,7000.0,6800.0,7600.0,8400.0,8500.0,6600.0,7100.0,7600.0,7900.0,7700.0,7500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,7000.0,7700.0,7900.0,6100.0,6500.0,6900.0,7200.0,7100.0,6900.0,6200.0,5900.0,5800.0,6400.0,7100.0,7200.0,5600.0,5900.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5800.0,6400.0,6500.0,5000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[8200.0,8600.0,9100.0,9000.0,8800.0,8000.0,7500.0,7600.0,8200.0,8900.0,9200.0,8300.0,9000.0,10200.0,11200.0,11000.0,11000.0,10300.0,9800.0,9700.0,10000.0,11000.0,11600.0,10300.0,11000.0,11000.0,12200.0,12300.0,12200.0,11300.0,10800.0,10500.0,10800.0,12000.0,12300.0,10800.0,11300.0,11000.0,12300.0,12200.0,12000.0,10900.0,10600.0,10000.0,10400.0,11500.0,11600.0,10200.0,10500.0,10300.0,10600.0,11200.0,11300.0,10600.0,10000.0,9400.0,9600.0,10400.0,10500.0,9500.0,9600.0,9400.0,10400.0,10000.0,9800.0,9000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8500.0,9100.0,9300.0,8300.0,8300.0,8200.0,9000.0,8700.0,8600.0,7900.0,7400.0,7200.0,7500.0,8000.0,8200.0,7300.0,7400.0,7400.0,8000.0,7700.0,7700.0,7000.0,6700.0,6500.0,6700.0,7200.0,7300.0,6500.0,6700.0,6700.0,7100.0,7000.0,6900.0,6300.0,6100.0,5900.0,6100.0,6600.0,6600.0,5900.0,6000.0,5900.0,6400.0,6300.0,6200.0,5700.0,5500.0,5300.0,5500.0,5900.0,5900.0,5300.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2490.0,2760.0,3010.0,2870.0,2740.0,2360.0,2240.0,2530.0,3120.0,3390.0,3120.0,2500.0,3060.0,4210.0,4290.0,4080.0,3670.0,3160.0,3010.0,3330.0,4050.0,4330.0,3960.0,3170.0,3980.0,4380.0,4570.0,4460.0,4160.0,3580.0,3430.0,3800.0,4730.0,5060.0,4690.0,3770.0,4600.0,5060.0,5250.0,5090.0,4740.0,4050.0,3880.0,4280.0,5310.0,5660.0,5230.0,4190.0,5100.0,5610.0,6070.0,5750.0,5280.0,4500.0,4330.0,4750.0,5890.0,6280.0,5820.0,4670.0,5640.0,6210.0,6440.0,6250.0,5830.0,4980.0,4780.0,5250.0,6520.0,6940.0,6440.0,5170.0,6220.0,6840.0,7080.0,6870.0,6400.0,5460.0,5230.0,5730.0,7110.0,7570.0,7000.0,5650.0,6790.0,7440.0,7670.0,7410.0,6870.0,5830.0,5570.0,5840.0,7520.0,7960.0,7340.0,5860.0,7040.0,7690.0,7920.0,7640.0,7080.0,6000.0,5720.0,6240.0,7700.0,8140.0,7500.0,5980.0,6980.0,7370.0,7460.0,7110.0,6660.0,5670.0,4600.0,5000.0,6160.0,6520.0,6010.0,4790.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1048.0,1012.0,1079.0,987.0,976.0,815.0,702.0,771.0,1037.0,1104.0,1031.0,748.0,1638.0,2015.0,2194.0,1962.0,1891.0,1610.0,1437.0,1712.0,2238.0,2391.0,2136.0,1489.0,2324.0,2251.0,2368.0,2193.0,2157.0,1771.0,1589.0,1665.0,2327.0,2430.0,2298.0,1692.0,2541.0,2470.0,2592.0,2401.0,2359.0,1942.0,1738.0,1827.0,2546.0,2659.0,2514.0,1853.0,2302.0,2279.0,2641.0,2718.0,2330.0,1796.0,1562.0,1694.0,2297.0,2428.0,2301.0,1668.0,2213.0,2147.0,2255.0,2088.0,2053.0,1687.0,1512.0,1589.0,2216.0,2314.0,2187.0,1613.0,2102.0,2039.0,2141.0,1983.0,1950.0,1602.0,1438.0,1507.0,2104.0,2198.0,2076.0,1531.0,2158.0,2092.0,2197.0,2035.0,2001.0,1645.0,1475.0,1573.0,2132.0,2455.0,2159.0,1548.0,2215.0,2146.0,2258.0,2112.0,2028.0,1713.0,1489.0,1612.0,2187.0,2317.0,2191.0,1610.0,2268.0,2201.0,2310.0,2140.0,2104.0,1730.0,1550.0,1627.0,2269.0,2372.0,2241.0,1652.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2300.0,2450.0,2700.0,2600.0,2450.0,2250.0,2100.0,2150.0,2550.0,2750.0,2700.0,2050.0,2400.0,4300.0,5600.0,5200.0,3900.0,3300.0,3050.0,3150.0,3900.0,3850.0,3800.0,2950.0,3150.0,3350.0,3750.0,3650.0,3550.0,3350.0,3100.0,3200.0,3700.0,3950.0,3900.0,3350.0,3400.0,3650.0,4300.0,3950.0,3850.0,3600.0,3350.0,3500.0,4050.0,4350.0,4300.0,3350.0,3550.0,3800.0,4550.0,4900.0,4350.0,3950.0,3750.0,3900.0,4550.0,4850.0,4800.0,3700.0,4200.0,4500.0,5050.0,5000.0,4850.0,4500.0,4200.0,4350.0,5150.0,5650.0,5600.0,4300.0,4800.0,5050.0,5700.0,6600.0,6350.0,5850.0,5550.0,6700.0,6600.0,6850.0,7350.0,5450.0,6800.0,7400.0,8900.0,8700.0,8300.0,7800.0,7350.0,7650.0,8950.0,9850.0,9750.0,7300.0,8250.0,8850.0,10150.0,9950.0,9550.0,9050.0,8550.0,8900.0,10450.0,11550.0,11450.0,8600.0,9300.0,9950.0,11400.0,11200.0,10800.0,10200.0,9650.0,10050.0,11800.0,13050.0,12950.0,9750.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[600.0,640.0,680.0,690.0,640.0,600.0,570.0,590.0,700.0,730.0,690.0,600.0,820.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,950.0,850.0,800.0,820.0,950.0,980.0,930.0,800.0,880.0,930.0,1000.0,1020.0,940.0,860.0,820.0,860.0,1040.0,1080.0,1030.0,880.0,940.0,990.0,1040.0,1060.0,980.0,900.0,850.0,890.0,1100.0,1150.0,1070.0,920.0,1020.0,1080.0,1160.0,1200.0,1120.0,1010.0,960.0,1000.0,1210.0,1250.0,1180.0,1020.0,1180.0,1240.0,1310.0,1340.0,1240.0,1140.0,1080.0,1130.0,1360.0,1430.0,1350.0,1160.0,1320.0,1390.0,1460.0,1480.0,1370.0,1260.0,1190.0,1250.0,1540.0,1620.0,1510.0,1300.0,1460.0,1530.0,1630.0,1660.0,1530.0,1410.0,1330.0,1400.0,1690.0,1770.0,1670.0,1440.0,1600.0,1680.0,1770.0,1800.0,1670.0,1530.0,1450.0,1510.0,1870.0,1960.0,1820.0,1560.0,1740.0,1830.0,1940.0,1980.0,1830.0,1680.0,1590.0,1670.0,2020.0,2110.0,2000.0,1720.0],"meta/muse-ember":[204.0,238.0,216.0,221.0,196.0,167.0,134.0,178.0,258.0,246.0,233.0,155.0,237.0,236.0,278.0,228.0,227.0,167.0,160.0,180.0,274.0,300.0,238.0,194.0,250.0,286.0,291.0,281.0,222.0,213.0,171.0,216.0,307.0,311.0,300.0,203.0,306.0,314.0,346.0,337.0,299.0,229.0,212.0,230.0,375.0,366.0,320.0,251.0,314.0,359.0,401.0,352.0,286.0,250.0,207.0,264.0,396.0,386.0,359.0,252.0,347.0,331.0,377.0,330.0,317.0,247.0,231.0,256.0,386.0,419.0,345.0,271.0,329.0,401.0,384.0,368.0,329.0,279.0,229.0,283.0,425.0,414.0,401.0,267.0,388.0,406.0,443.0,376.0,368.0,282.0,271.0,298.0,453.0,491.0,389.0,324.0,398.0,456.0,455.0,439.0,374.0,323.0,262.0,341.0,475.0,510.0,455.0,326.0,453.0,456.0,498.0,444.0,431.0,333.0,299.0,359.0,540.0,526.0,508.0,343.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[1980.0,2150.0,2280.0,2240.0,2170.0,1900.0,1680.0,1620.0,2360.0,2320.0,2210.0,1700.0,2250.0,2900.0,3350.0,3300.0,3050.0,2500.0,2150.0,2080.0,3050.0,3000.0,2880.0,2250.0,2800.0,3150.0,3400.0,3350.0,3250.0,2850.0,2750.0,2680.0,3650.0,3600.0,3450.0,2700.0,3200.0,3600.0,3900.0,3850.0,3700.0,3200.0,2800.0,2750.0,4200.0,4150.0,3950.0,3100.0,3500.0,3900.0,4900.0,4600.0,4400.0,3800.0,3300.0,3250.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0,3450.0,4200.0,4700.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4200.0,3700.0,3650.0,5300.0,5600.0,5400.0,4300.0,4600.0,5000.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,4500.0,4000.0,3950.0,5500.0,5400.0,6300.0,6800.0,5200.0,5500.0,5800.0,5600.0,5400.0,4800.0,4300.0,4250.0,5600.0,5500.0,5200.0,4200.0,4400.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,5300.0,4500.0,4100.0,4050.0,4900.0,4800.0,4550.0,3700.0,3900.0,4200.0,4500.0,4400.0,4250.0,3750.0,3400.0,3350.0,4400.0,4350.0,4150.0,3350.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1080.0,1050.0,1010.0,970.0,940.0,880.0,850.0,900.0,990.0,1090.0,1060.0,1010.0,1210.0,1160.0,1120.0,1080.0,1040.0,970.0,940.0,990.0,1100.0,1190.0,1160.0,1090.0,1330.0,1280.0,1230.0,1180.0,1140.0,1060.0,1020.0,1070.0,1180.0,1290.0,1260.0,1200.0,1510.0,1450.0,1380.0,1330.0,1280.0,1190.0,1150.0,1220.0,1340.0,1460.0,1430.0,1360.0,1760.0,1690.0,1810.0,1790.0,1730.0,1530.0,1480.0,1550.0,1680.0,1800.0,1760.0,1660.0,1930.0,1860.0,1810.0,1750.0,1690.0,1570.0,1530.0,1600.0,1740.0,1870.0,1830.0,1740.0,2180.0,2100.0,2040.0,1970.0,1900.0,1770.0,1720.0,1800.0,1960.0,2100.0,2060.0,1970.0,2650.0,2550.0,2490.0,2420.0,2340.0,2180.0,2110.0,2200.0,2400.0,2550.0,2500.0,2410.0,2950.0,2850.0,2760.0,2670.0,2580.0,2420.0,2340.0,2450.0,2650.0,2820.0,2770.0,2670.0,3190.0,3080.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2620.0,2540.0,2650.0,2860.0,3040.0,2990.0,2890.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2500.0,2700.0,2700.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2500.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3300.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,3600.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,3800.0,4100.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4000.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,4400.0,4200.0,4200.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,4400.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4400.0,4900.0,5100.0,5200.0,4500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1450.0,1520.0,1480.0,1260.0,1400.0,1060.0,930.0,1140.0,1600.0,1470.0,1270.0,1180.0,4300.0,3600.0,2900.0,2250.0,2450.0,1800.0,1620.0,1900.0,2750.0,2500.0,2200.0,2050.0,3950.0,4150.0,4050.0,3450.0,3750.0,2900.0,2550.0,3100.0,4350.0,3950.0,3400.0,3200.0,5850.0,6150.0,5950.0,5100.0,5650.0,4300.0,3750.0,4550.0,6550.0,5900.0,5200.0,4850.0,9000.0,9400.0,10900.0,10400.0,9700.0,7300.0,6400.0,7900.0,11400.0,9200.0,7800.0,7400.0,14200.0,13900.0,13500.0,11400.0,13600.0,9600.0,8600.0,10300.0,15100.0,13300.0,11400.0,10900.0,17100.0,17900.0,17600.0,14900.0,16500.0,12600.0,10900.0,13300.0,19200.0,17100.0,16300.0,14600.0,26500.0,25600.0,28300.0,21200.0,23300.0,18500.0,15600.0,18900.0,29400.0,23100.0,22100.0,19100.0,29300.0,30600.0,29100.0,24600.0,27600.0,20900.0,18300.0,22200.0,31700.0,28600.0,26100.0,23600.0,36200.0,35300.0,35600.0,29600.0,32100.0,24600.0,21100.0,25600.0,38600.0,34200.0,29700.0,27200.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[330.0,310.0,350.0,360.0,345.0,330.0,300.0,315.0,350.0,370.0,350.0,300.0,350.0,335.0,375.0,390.0,370.0,355.0,325.0,340.0,380.0,400.0,375.0,320.0,380.0,360.0,405.0,420.0,400.0,385.0,350.0,365.0,410.0,435.0,405.0,345.0,410.0,390.0,440.0,455.0,435.0,420.0,380.0,400.0,450.0,475.0,445.0,380.0,465.0,450.0,510.0,540.0,520.0,500.0,455.0,480.0,540.0,570.0,535.0,455.0,500.0,480.0,550.0,570.0,550.0,525.0,480.0,505.0,570.0,600.0,560.0,480.0,520.0,500.0,575.0,600.0,575.0,550.0,500.0,530.0,595.0,625.0,585.0,500.0,570.0,550.0,630.0,660.0,630.0,610.0,555.0,590.0,665.0,700.0,655.0,560.0,630.0,605.0,690.0,720.0,690.0,665.0,610.0,645.0,725.0,760.0,710.0,610.0,680.0,650.0,740.0,775.0,740.0,710.0,650.0,690.0,780.0,820.0,765.0,660.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1350.0,1150.0,1100.0,1400.0,1500.0,1450.0,1100.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,1700.0,1500.0,1450.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1500.0,2000.0,2100.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,1800.0,1600.0,1550.0,1900.0,2000.0,1950.0,1600.0,2050.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,1850.0,1650.0,1600.0,1950.0,2050.0,2000.0,1650.0,2150.0,2200.0,2400.0,2450.0,2300.0,2000.0,1800.0,1750.0,2100.0,2200.0,2150.0,1800.0,2250.0,2300.0,2350.0,2300.0,2200.0,1950.0,1750.0,1700.0,2050.0,2150.0,2100.0,1750.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,1900.0,1700.0,1650.0,2000.0,2100.0,2050.0,1700.0,2150.0,2200.0,2250.0,2200.0,2100.0,1850.0,1650.0,1600.0,1950.0,2050.0,2000.0,1650.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,1800.0,1600.0,1550.0,1900.0,2000.0,1950.0,1600.0,2000.0,2050.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,1750.0,1550.0,1500.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,1550.0]}},{"title":"Zacarias Moussaoui","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Zacarias Moussaoui\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[23439,12236,16458,14976,25179,13246,15022,13540,36406,12413,11676,12549,24462,14304,14074,15193,15500,22766,14338,14596,27768,13395,15820,17865,16008,13870,16434,16971,15038,11730,15057,16081,34207,14602,13513,12817,18519,46191,14338,12272,13327,14895,28016,14969,39664,16548,13404,14096,14198,14550,12790,17875,17748,12625,13999,14684,33283,12360,11046,15035,15594,13516,13183,14230,16612,14317,15913,23371,111457,13954,10960,11925,13735,9808,11485,10799,11781,11922,15425,21965,24161,13281,12659,15073,17300,13661,15383,22694,22252,27893,23637,25206,92270,23820,18481,21743,22999,19746,24624,22221,24459,26219,27034,25151,54668,19426,18276,20591,20674,18257,20180,21735,35514,29372,30415,27149,50319,23115,19178,19586],"flat_reference_value":16956.370815063812,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[10500.0,9600.0,10200.0,10400.0,11500.0,9800.0,9500.0,11000.0,29000.0,14000.0,10500.0,9800.0,10200.0,9100.0,9800.0,9400.0,9800.0,9000.0,9000.0,10500.0,22000.0,11500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9700.0,8800.0,9500.0,9200.0,9600.0,8700.0,9000.0,10500.0,21500.0,11200.0,9200.0,9000.0,9500.0,8700.0,9300.0,9000.0,9400.0,8600.0,9000.0,10300.0,22000.0,11000.0,9200.0,8800.0,9500.0,8800.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,9000.0,9300.0,11000.0,24000.0,12000.0,9800.0,9300.0,9800.0,9000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9900.0,9800.0,10500.0,17000.0,55000.0,21000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10500.0,9600.0,10200.0,9800.0,10000.0,9200.0,9700.0,11500.0,25000.0,12500.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9100.0,9800.0,9300.0,9800.0,9000.0,9400.0,11000.0,23000.0,12000.0,9800.0,9300.0,9800.0,9000.0,9600.0,9200.0,9600.0,8900.0,9500.0,13000.0,24000.0,11500.0,9500.0,9100.0,9600.0,8800.0,9400.0,9000.0,9400.0,8700.0,9100.0,10800.0,23000.0,11500.0,9300.0,9000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[19500.0,18200.0,19800.0,31500.0,22400.0,18900.0,34800.0,22100.0,86000.0,26500.0,19200.0,18400.0,19600.0,17500.0,18800.0,17900.0,18300.0,17100.0,17600.0,19400.0,54000.0,21500.0,17800.0,16900.0,18200.0,17400.0,23500.0,29200.0,20800.0,17200.0,17900.0,19600.0,56500.0,21200.0,17600.0,17100.0,18300.0,16800.0,18100.0,17500.0,17900.0,17200.0,27400.0,20500.0,61000.0,22300.0,18000.0,17400.0,19100.0,17600.0,18900.0,20400.0,26800.0,19200.0,18700.0,20900.0,59500.0,22100.0,18400.0,17900.0,19300.0,17800.0,18600.0,19400.0,18200.0,17500.0,19100.0,38500.0,165000.0,34000.0,21200.0,18500.0,18900.0,16700.0,17600.0,16900.0,17200.0,16400.0,17100.0,26500.0,56000.0,20800.0,16900.0,16200.0,17100.0,15400.0,16500.0,15900.0,16800.0,27800.0,17900.0,18600.0,58500.0,21400.0,16700.0,15800.0,16400.0,14900.0,15600.0,15100.0,15400.0,14700.0,16800.0,28900.0,55000.0,19200.0,15100.0,14500.0,16900.0,13800.0,14600.0,14100.0,14400.0,13900.0,14800.0,16700.0,51500.0,17800.0,14200.0,13600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[23400.0,21800.0,22500.0,20900.0,21300.0,20600.0,21100.0,24200.0,54600.0,25100.0,20400.0,19800.0,21500.0,19600.0,21200.0,19800.0,20400.0,19200.0,20100.0,23000.0,51200.0,23800.0,19500.0,18900.0,20300.0,18700.0,19900.0,18400.0,19200.0,18100.0,19400.0,21800.0,48300.0,22100.0,18600.0,17900.0,19200.0,17800.0,18900.0,17600.0,18100.0,17400.0,18300.0,21200.0,45600.0,21400.0,17800.0,16900.0,18400.0,17200.0,16500.0,16800.0,17100.0,16200.0,17500.0,20400.0,58700.0,26800.0,18200.0,16700.0,18100.0,16800.0,17900.0,17300.0,17500.0,17100.0,19200.0,28400.0,132000.0,27400.0,19100.0,17500.0,17800.0,16100.0,17200.0,15900.0,16400.0,15800.0,16700.0,18900.0,41500.0,19400.0,16500.0,15700.0,16800.0,15200.0,16400.0,15100.0,15600.0,14900.0,15800.0,17600.0,37900.0,18100.0,15700.0,14800.0,15900.0,14600.0,15500.0,14400.0,14900.0,14200.0,15300.0,17100.0,35200.0,17300.0,15100.0,14200.0,15200.0,14000.0,14800.0,13900.0,14400.0,13700.0,14600.0,16300.0,33400.0,16500.0,14300.0,13600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[12500.0,11800.0,12300.0,11900.0,11500.0,10800.0,10500.0,11000.0,22000.0,12500.0,11500.0,10500.0,11200.0,10800.0,11300.0,10900.0,10600.0,9900.0,9700.0,10100.0,19500.0,11200.0,10400.0,9600.0,10200.0,9800.0,10300.0,10000.0,9700.0,9100.0,8900.0,9300.0,18000.0,10300.0,9600.0,8900.0,9500.0,9100.0,9600.0,9300.0,9000.0,8500.0,8300.0,8700.0,17000.0,9600.0,9000.0,8400.0,9000.0,8600.0,9500.0,10200.0,9600.0,8500.0,8300.0,8600.0,16500.0,9200.0,8600.0,8000.0,8600.0,8200.0,8400.0,8100.0,7900.0,7600.0,7700.0,10500.0,42000.0,13000.0,9200.0,8000.0,8100.0,7700.0,7900.0,7600.0,7400.0,7000.0,6900.0,7200.0,14500.0,7900.0,7300.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,6900.0,6700.0,6400.0,6300.0,6600.0,13500.0,7300.0,6800.0,6300.0,6700.0,6400.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0,6800.0,8200.0,12500.0,6900.0,6400.0,6000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6600.0,7200.0,6500.0,5900.0,5800.0,6100.0,11800.0,6500.0,6100.0,5700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,31000.0,27000.0,58000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,50000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,30000.0,48000.0,50000.0,30000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,50000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,48000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,24000.0,27000.0,30000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,47000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,32000.0,120000.0,32000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,48000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,42000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,25000.0,44000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,30000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,42000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3800.0,3500.0,58000.0,9500.0,5000.0,4200.0,3900.0,4300.0,15000.0,6000.0,4400.0,4000.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,11500.0,4400.0,4600.0,3800.0,3900.0,4800.0,7000.0,5000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,11000.0,4300.0,3900.0,3600.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3400.0,10500.0,4200.0,3800.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,11500.0,4300.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,7000.0,32000.0,6000.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,12500.0,4200.0,3700.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,6000.0,14000.0,4500.0,3800.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,12000.0,4000.0,3500.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,11000.0,3800.0,3300.0,3000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9532.0,8621.0,9145.0,8720.0,8930.0,8412.0,8765.0,9540.0,25680.0,9420.0,8680.0,8425.0,9085.0,7920.0,8735.0,8350.0,10340.0,8560.0,8210.0,8755.0,17620.0,8840.0,8120.0,7950.0,8610.0,7485.0,8340.0,8025.0,8180.0,7760.0,8045.0,8420.0,16540.0,8240.0,7730.0,7510.0,8350.0,7150.0,7980.0,7720.0,7890.0,7420.0,7650.0,8110.0,15870.0,7940.0,7390.0,7180.0,8020.0,7360.0,8620.0,8840.0,7960.0,7420.0,7580.0,7850.0,15230.0,7710.0,7230.0,7050.0,7820.0,6950.0,7630.0,7480.0,7720.0,7350.0,7920.0,11540.0,43850.0,9050.0,7680.0,7350.0,7850.0,6820.0,7480.0,7120.0,7350.0,6980.0,7190.0,7650.0,14820.0,7420.0,6950.0,6680.0,7520.0,6520.0,7180.0,6850.0,7020.0,6680.0,6930.0,7340.0,14250.0,7480.0,6720.0,6440.0,7280.0,6350.0,6920.0,6680.0,6840.0,6420.0,6710.0,7050.0,13580.0,6880.0,6410.0,6230.0,7050.0,6120.0,6720.0,6480.0,6620.0,6250.0,6510.0,6830.0,13120.0,6650.0,6210.0,6040.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3200.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2700.0,2300.0,2200.0,3000.0,30000.0,5500.0,3400.0,2900.0,3000.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2500.0,2100.0,2100.0,2700.0,18500.0,4200.0,3000.0,2600.0,2800.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0,2100.0,2000.0,2600.0,16500.0,4400.0,3400.0,2600.0,3000.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2800.0,17500.0,4100.0,3000.0,2700.0,3300.0,3000.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3800.0,19500.0,4300.0,3700.0,3500.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,11000.0,58000.0,10500.0,5200.0,4400.0,4200.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,3500.0,3500.0,4200.0,23000.0,5200.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3400.0,3000.0,3000.0,3500.0,18000.0,4400.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,2800.0,3200.0,15500.0,3900.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2900.0,2600.0,2600.0,3000.0,14500.0,3600.0,2900.0,2700.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3300.0,11500.0,3900.0,3400.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,3200.0,10500.0,3700.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,9800.0,3500.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,10800.0,3600.0,3100.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,7500.0,3000.0,3200.0,12500.0,3800.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,3000.0,32000.0,5200.0,3400.0,2900.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2800.0,10500.0,3400.0,2900.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2700.0,9800.0,3300.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,5500.0,13500.0,3400.0,2800.0,2500.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2500.0,9200.0,3100.0,2600.0,2400.0],"meta/muse-ember":[14520.0,20048.0,15840.0,16170.0,16500.0,15510.0,15180.0,16170.0,47850.0,15840.0,15180.0,14190.0,19096.0,13950.0,14880.0,15190.0,15500.0,14570.0,14260.0,15190.0,40300.0,14880.0,14260.0,13330.0,13024.0,13320.0,14208.0,14504.0,14800.0,13912.0,13616.0,14504.0,37000.0,31258.0,19062.0,12728.0,12320.0,12600.0,13440.0,13720.0,14000.0,13160.0,12880.0,13720.0,33600.0,13440.0,12880.0,12040.0,11704.0,11970.0,12768.0,13034.0,13300.0,12502.0,12236.0,13034.0,34580.0,12768.0,12236.0,11438.0,11264.0,11520.0,12288.0,20070.0,12800.0,12032.0,11776.0,15680.0,53760.0,24576.0,16486.0,11008.0,10648.0,10890.0,11616.0,11858.0,12100.0,11374.0,11132.0,11858.0,32670.0,11616.0,11132.0,10406.0,10120.0,10350.0,11040.0,22540.0,14950.0,10810.0,10580.0,11270.0,33350.0,11040.0,10580.0,9890.0,9680.0,9900.0,10560.0,10780.0,11000.0,10340.0,13662.0,23716.0,34100.0,13200.0,10120.0,9460.0,13860.0,12285.0,12600.0,25725.0,14700.0,9870.0,9660.0,10290.0,34650.0,10080.0,9660.0,9030.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2510.0,2480.0,2620.0,2530.0,2440.0,2960.0,2760.0,2120.0,12500.0,2680.0,2720.0,2980.0,2310.0,2280.0,2720.0,2260.0,3050.0,2810.0,1980.0,2450.0,5600.0,2920.0,2480.0,2350.0,2120.0,2090.0,2210.0,2030.0,1980.0,1810.0,1740.0,1780.0,5100.0,2150.0,2210.0,2080.0,2030.0,1990.0,2400.0,2150.0,1900.0,1740.0,1680.0,1710.0,4900.0,2080.0,2140.0,2010.0,1900.0,1880.0,2050.0,1980.0,1850.0,1720.0,1680.0,1700.0,4700.0,1960.0,2020.0,1930.0,1800.0,1770.0,1880.0,1750.0,1700.0,1560.0,1520.0,4200.0,68000.0,3400.0,1960.0,1870.0,1580.0,1550.0,1640.0,1520.0,1490.0,1360.0,1310.0,1340.0,4300.0,1620.0,1680.0,1580.0,1480.0,1450.0,1540.0,1420.0,1390.0,1270.0,1220.0,1280.0,42000.0,3800.0,1560.0,1480.0,1260.0,1240.0,1320.0,1210.0,1180.0,1080.0,1040.0,1060.0,3700.0,1300.0,1350.0,1270.0,1150.0,1130.0,1200.0,1110.0,1080.0,990.0,950.0,970.0,3500.0,1190.0,1230.0,1160.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3450.0,3080.0,3210.0,3010.0,3060.0,2900.0,2840.0,2960.0,6540.0,3260.0,3090.0,2930.0,11800.0,5050.0,3250.0,3020.0,5580.0,3040.0,2900.0,3610.0,6960.0,3300.0,3140.0,2990.0,3140.0,2810.0,2870.0,2720.0,2770.0,2630.0,2560.0,2680.0,6120.0,2850.0,2740.0,2630.0,2930.0,2680.0,2760.0,2620.0,2660.0,2530.0,2470.0,2580.0,7880.0,3110.0,2990.0,2840.0,3080.0,4050.0,11900.0,6470.0,9460.0,5030.0,3150.0,3090.0,8610.0,4070.0,5650.0,3440.0,4130.0,3090.0,3000.0,2850.0,2810.0,4400.0,2860.0,2920.0,6460.0,3130.0,2990.0,2850.0,3130.0,3320.0,24000.0,10050.0,4290.0,3420.0,3190.0,3250.0,6930.0,3600.0,4810.0,20850.0,6260.0,3400.0,5280.0,3260.0,3160.0,3020.0,2940.0,3030.0,6410.0,3240.0,3100.0,2960.0,3230.0,2850.0,2930.0,2780.0,2750.0,2630.0,2560.0,2670.0,5990.0,2880.0,2780.0,2730.0,3820.0,2770.0,2810.0,2660.0,2650.0,2530.0,2460.0,2570.0,5880.0,2750.0,2660.0,2700.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1700.0,1500.0,1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,2400.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1900.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1700.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1600.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1500.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,1000.0,1900.0,1100.0,1000.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,1400.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,1300.0,950.0,850.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,800.0,1200.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,750.0,750.0,700.0,700.0,750.0,1100.0,800.0,750.0,700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1200.0,1000.0,1150.0,1350.0,1500.0,1100.0,1150.0,1500.0,8200.0,2200.0,1450.0,1250.0,1300.0,1100.0,1250.0,1500.0,1650.0,1200.0,1250.0,1700.0,9500.0,2600.0,1600.0,1350.0,1400.0,1150.0,1300.0,1600.0,1800.0,1300.0,1350.0,1900.0,11200.0,3000.0,1750.0,1450.0,1500.0,1250.0,1400.0,1750.0,1950.0,1400.0,1500.0,2100.0,13000.0,3500.0,1900.0,1550.0,1700.0,1350.0,1600.0,2000.0,2200.0,1600.0,1750.0,2400.0,16800.0,4600.0,2150.0,1750.0,2050.0,1600.0,2000.0,2600.0,3000.0,2200.0,3000.0,5200.0,38000.0,12500.0,3200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1650.0,1950.0,2400.0,2700.0,2000.0,2150.0,2800.0,15200.0,4100.0,2200.0,1850.0,1850.0,1500.0,1800.0,2200.0,2450.0,1800.0,1900.0,2500.0,11800.0,3100.0,1950.0,1650.0,1900.0,1550.0,1850.0,2300.0,2550.0,1850.0,4800.0,3400.0,21500.0,6200.0,2300.0,1850.0,1800.0,1500.0,1750.0,2150.0,2400.0,1700.0,1850.0,2350.0,12700.0,3300.0,1950.0,1600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[561.0,505.0,548.0,519.0,534.0,510.0,545.0,630.0,1620.0,748.0,574.0,601.0,520.0,480.0,532.0,515.0,501.0,492.0,530.0,585.0,1375.0,680.0,548.0,560.0,506.0,481.0,523.0,492.0,517.0,505.0,549.0,611.0,1450.0,705.0,563.0,577.0,532.0,506.0,568.0,526.0,540.0,521.0,571.0,644.0,1580.0,730.0,589.0,616.0,575.0,541.0,598.0,560.0,573.0,560.0,612.0,730.0,1710.0,812.0,643.0,678.0,630.0,586.0,649.0,610.0,638.0,624.0,701.0,1035.0,2860.0,1020.0,745.0,728.0,601.0,563.0,620.0,592.0,605.0,587.0,641.0,755.0,1700.0,820.0,670.0,683.0,588.0,547.0,603.0,576.0,594.0,571.0,628.0,740.0,1625.0,797.0,651.0,666.0,550.0,519.0,567.0,539.0,555.0,542.0,591.0,703.0,1490.0,756.0,618.0,634.0,537.0,501.0,556.0,528.0,543.0,529.0,574.0,681.0,1540.0,772.0,625.0,642.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[900.0,850.0,880.0,860.0,840.0,830.0,820.0,850.0,1400.0,950.0,880.0,800.0,820.0,800.0,790.0,780.0,770.0,760.0,750.0,760.0,1150.0,800.0,760.0,720.0,740.0,720.0,710.0,700.0,690.0,680.0,670.0,680.0,1050.0,720.0,680.0,650.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,640.0,630.0,620.0,610.0,620.0,980.0,650.0,620.0,600.0,640.0,620.0,640.0,630.0,620.0,610.0,600.0,610.0,950.0,630.0,600.0,580.0,600.0,580.0,590.0,580.0,570.0,560.0,570.0,700.0,1500.0,800.0,650.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,570.0,550.0,540.0,530.0,520.0,530.0,900.0,580.0,540.0,520.0,540.0,520.0,530.0,510.0,500.0,500.0,490.0,500.0,880.0,560.0,520.0,500.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,820.0,520.0,490.0,470.0,480.0,460.0,470.0,450.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,450.0,780.0,480.0,450.0,430.0]}},{"title":"Flotilla","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Flotilla\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3930,3804,4049,4105,4601,4803,4360,4299,4201,4882,4340,4659,4680,5001,4371,5385,5510,4579,6676,6021,5131,4265,4204,4590,4577,3909,4582,5261,4521,4073,4536,4546,3719,3629,3612,3788,4035,3849,4354,3865,5096,4309,4866,4509,4245,4218,4344,4134,4429,3877,4479,6805,4934,5296,5145,5025,4944,4359,4031,3960,4325,4003,5245,4638,4467,4118,4653,4118,3808,3570,3423,4119,4189,3794,4863,4077,3840,3402,3837,3965,3680,4203,3922,3284,3890,3150,3745,3766,4149,4115,4428,4418,3894,4840,4424,4176,4242,3934,4588,5088,4404,4145,3861,3559,3347,3680,3809,4354,4230,3688,4105,3557,4503,13741,3680,4069,16442,36096,4768,4748],"flat_reference_value":17079.001061762097,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[4400.0,4200.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,4600.0,4500.0,4800.0,4500.0,5100.0,4900.0,5100.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4800.0,5100.0,4700.0,5300.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,6600.0,6100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,5100.0,5500.0,5000.0,5700.0,5500.0,5800.0,5800.0,6100.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,5600.0,5500.0,5900.0,5500.0,6100.0,6200.0,6500.0,6300.0,6700.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,5900.0,6300.0,5800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6800.0,6500.0,6900.0,6800.0,6400.0,6600.0,6300.0,6200.0,6600.0,6200.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,7300.0,7100.0,6800.0,7000.0,6600.0,6500.0,6900.0,6400.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,7100.0,7500.0,7300.0,7000.0,8000.0,7600.0,7100.0,7400.0,6900.0,7600.0,8800.0,8300.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7400.0,7800.0,7300.0,7100.0,7600.0,7100.0,7900.0,8100.0,11000.0,26000.0,14000.0,11000.0,29000.0,45000.0,12000.0,8500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4900.0,4700.0,5100.0,5200.0,5800.0,12500.0,6200.0,6700.0,5600.0,5400.0,5100.0,4800.0,5200.0,4800.0,5300.0,8800.0,5900.0,6100.0,6300.0,6900.0,6500.0,5400.0,5100.0,4700.0,5100.0,4600.0,5200.0,5400.0,6600.0,6200.0,7100.0,6800.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,4800.0,5300.0,4800.0,5400.0,5500.0,6000.0,6400.0,6600.0,6300.0,5600.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,5400.0,5000.0,5500.0,6200.0,7400.0,8100.0,8800.0,13500.0,29000.0,9600.0,6200.0,5300.0,5500.0,5000.0,6600.0,5800.0,6400.0,6500.0,10800.0,6700.0,5800.0,5500.0,5100.0,4800.0,5300.0,6400.0,8500.0,8900.0,7200.0,8400.0,6400.0,6200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5000.0,4600.0,4900.0,4500.0,4900.0,5100.0,5600.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,5100.0,5800.0,5200.0,4700.0,5200.0,4800.0,5300.0,13500.0,8200.0,23000.0,7400.0,6300.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4800.0,4400.0,4900.0,5400.0,16500.0,48000.0,18500.0,21000.0,68000.0,74000.0,14500.0,7200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[8210.0,7840.0,8490.0,8120.0,7950.0,7630.0,7980.0,7720.0,8390.0,17450.0,12380.0,8910.0,8420.0,8010.0,8330.0,8870.0,8140.0,7790.0,8230.0,8040.0,8510.0,8730.0,8410.0,8150.0,8520.0,8190.0,8610.0,8430.0,9780.0,8920.0,10450.0,9560.0,8320.0,8640.0,8950.0,8210.0,8340.0,7930.0,8410.0,8220.0,8090.0,7960.0,7820.0,7940.0,8290.0,8530.0,8380.0,7840.0,8230.0,8110.0,9250.0,9780.0,11340.0,8860.0,8520.0,8630.0,8710.0,8840.0,8490.0,8140.0,8410.0,7920.0,8310.0,8130.0,8640.0,8220.0,8390.0,8040.0,8280.0,8490.0,8210.0,7940.0,8060.0,9520.0,10240.0,9630.0,8810.0,8420.0,8330.0,8510.0,8740.0,8890.0,8480.0,8120.0,8340.0,8020.0,8450.0,8210.0,8530.0,8140.0,8260.0,8410.0,8330.0,9840.0,9510.0,9230.0,9120.0,8790.0,8680.0,10450.0,11180.0,15230.0,9380.0,8620.0,8510.0,8780.0,8600.0,8390.0,8550.0,8210.0,8470.0,8320.0,8590.0,8250.0,8180.0,8310.0,8460.0,8620.0,8430.0,8190.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[4300.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4100.0,3700.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,3500.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,3900.0,4200.0,4400.0,4900.0,4600.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3400.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3200.0,3500.0,3400.0,3700.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3600.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3600.0,9500.0,6500.0,7500.0,26000.0,30000.0,7500.0,5000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,6700.0,6900.0,7000.0,6800.0,6400.0,6900.0,6500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6700.0,6400.0,6300.0,6300.0,6400.0,6500.0,6400.0,6000.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,5900.0,5900.0,5800.0,6000.0,6100.0,5600.0,6000.0,5600.0,5800.0,5600.0,5700.0,5500.0,5500.0,5400.0,5400.0,5500.0,5400.0,5100.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,5800.0,5900.0,5500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,5300.0,4900.0,5100.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,5000.0,5800.0,6800.0,6500.0,5800.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,4500.0,5200.0,11000.0,7000.0,12000.0,32000.0,38000.0,7500.0,5500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4700.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4600.0,6200.0,4500.0,4100.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4800.0,5600.0,4400.0,4000.0,3900.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,4400.0,4300.0,5500.0,7500.0,6800.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3700.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,6500.0,4200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,3100.0,5200.0,4400.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,4200.0,4800.0,4500.0,3600.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,5800.0,130000.0,35000.0,10000.0,200000.0,280000.0,15000.0,5500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[6143.0,5712.0,5528.0,5184.0,4986.0,4521.0,4218.0,4356.0,5044.0,5389.0,5512.0,4987.0,5984.0,5593.0,5371.0,5082.0,4865.0,4448.0,4123.0,4287.0,4902.0,5256.0,5401.0,4869.0,5821.0,5456.0,5234.0,4963.0,4752.0,4329.0,4035.0,4178.0,4795.0,5123.0,5284.0,4756.0,5689.0,5321.0,5112.0,4854.0,4623.0,4238.0,3956.0,4092.0,4687.0,5018.0,5153.0,4632.0,5562.0,5284.0,6423.0,6128.0,5789.0,4285.0,3987.0,4125.0,4721.0,5054.0,5210.0,4688.0,5654.0,5312.0,5089.0,4821.0,4602.0,4189.0,3902.0,4045.0,4638.0,4967.0,5092.0,4589.0,5843.0,6985.0,8421.0,6823.0,5123.0,4654.0,4321.0,4456.0,5089.0,5432.0,5567.0,5012.0,5365.0,5023.0,4832.0,4589.0,4387.0,4012.0,3745.0,3879.0,4456.0,4987.0,5123.0,4621.0,5245.0,4912.0,4723.0,5234.0,4765.0,4189.0,3823.0,3956.0,4521.0,4832.0,4965.0,4478.0,5321.0,4987.0,4852.0,5432.0,11845.0,27430.0,14210.0,12875.0,38742.0,62318.0,18456.0,9234.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3750.0,3540.0,3460.0,3380.0,4300.0,3690.0,3180.0,3110.0,3350.0,3940.0,3520.0,3680.0,3990.0,3760.0,3670.0,3580.0,3510.0,3420.0,3360.0,3300.0,3560.0,3760.0,3830.0,3920.0,4170.0,3970.0,3880.0,3760.0,3830.0,3680.0,3600.0,4120.0,3880.0,4050.0,3970.0,4120.0,4360.0,4180.0,4100.0,4000.0,4420.0,4680.0,4320.0,3860.0,3980.0,4140.0,4180.0,4320.0,4760.0,4520.0,4380.0,4220.0,4180.0,4060.0,3960.0,3900.0,5200.0,4620.0,4520.0,4700.0,5060.0,4830.0,5760.0,4880.0,4520.0,4440.0,4320.0,4240.0,4700.0,5000.0,4940.0,5100.0,5400.0,6600.0,7200.0,7800.0,5900.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5050.0,5600.0,5200.0,5350.0,5650.0,5420.0,5300.0,5150.0,5000.0,4920.0,4800.0,4700.0,5100.0,6400.0,6900.0,6300.0,7600.0,6200.0,5700.0,5800.0,5500.0,5350.0,5600.0,5250.0,5350.0,5700.0,5550.0,5750.0,6150.0,5900.0,5800.0,5700.0,5650.0,8400.0,6300.0,6600.0,10500.0,22000.0,9800.0,6900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[460.0,440.0,480.0,500.0,540.0,560.0,580.0,570.0,620.0,1800.0,650.0,520.0,470.0,450.0,490.0,500.0,540.0,560.0,590.0,580.0,540.0,520.0,490.0,460.0,480.0,460.0,500.0,520.0,1800.0,600.0,620.0,610.0,560.0,540.0,510.0,480.0,470.0,450.0,490.0,510.0,550.0,570.0,590.0,580.0,540.0,520.0,490.0,460.0,430.0,410.0,450.0,470.0,500.0,520.0,540.0,530.0,490.0,470.0,450.0,420.0,430.0,410.0,450.0,470.0,1500.0,520.0,540.0,530.0,490.0,470.0,450.0,420.0,410.0,390.0,430.0,450.0,480.0,500.0,520.0,510.0,470.0,450.0,430.0,400.0,440.0,420.0,460.0,480.0,510.0,530.0,550.0,540.0,500.0,1600.0,700.0,600.0,550.0,520.0,560.0,2200.0,1600.0,650.0,680.0,660.0,620.0,600.0,570.0,540.0,600.0,580.0,620.0,650.0,700.0,3500.0,900.0,3000.0,18000.0,9000.0,1500.0,800.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1850.0,1720.0,1980.0,1910.0,2050.0,2250.0,2300.0,2180.0,2050.0,3300.0,2150.0,1650.0,1680.0,1580.0,1780.0,1720.0,1850.0,2000.0,1950.0,3400.0,2100.0,1750.0,1620.0,1480.0,1540.0,1470.0,1620.0,1580.0,1690.0,2150.0,4300.0,2700.0,1780.0,1620.0,1530.0,1390.0,1410.0,1340.0,1500.0,1460.0,1570.0,1680.0,1740.0,1690.0,1620.0,1490.0,1410.0,1290.0,1310.0,1240.0,1460.0,1510.0,1430.0,1380.0,1340.0,1330.0,1270.0,1210.0,1180.0,1090.0,1170.0,1110.0,1230.0,1190.0,1450.0,1520.0,1330.0,1270.0,1210.0,1150.0,1090.0,1010.0,1070.0,1170.0,1880.0,1660.0,1390.0,1260.0,1210.0,1160.0,1090.0,1030.0,980.0,920.0,970.0,920.0,1010.0,980.0,1060.0,1130.0,1090.0,1050.0,1000.0,5800.0,3600.0,2050.0,1560.0,1430.0,1510.0,1390.0,1560.0,1490.0,1410.0,1360.0,1310.0,1430.0,1260.0,1160.0,1240.0,1170.0,1290.0,1230.0,1360.0,18500.0,24000.0,38000.0,82000.0,68000.0,9500.0,4200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[58000.0,54000.0,58000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,53000.0,53000.0,104000.0,176000.0,80000.0,48000.0,60000.0,56000.0,60000.0,59000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,55000.0,60000.0,61000.0,59000.0,50000.0,62000.0,58000.0,62000.0,61000.0,140000.0,72000.0,57000.0,57000.0,62000.0,63000.0,61000.0,52000.0,67000.0,62000.0,66000.0,65000.0,66000.0,64000.0,61000.0,61000.0,66000.0,67000.0,65000.0,55000.0,73000.0,68000.0,72000.0,71000.0,72000.0,70000.0,67000.0,67000.0,72000.0,74000.0,71000.0,60000.0,79000.0,74000.0,78000.0,77000.0,102000.0,87000.0,72000.0,72000.0,78000.0,80000.0,78000.0,65000.0,77000.0,72000.0,76000.0,75000.0,76000.0,74000.0,70000.0,70000.0,76000.0,78000.0,75000.0,64000.0,75000.0,70000.0,74000.0,73000.0,74000.0,72000.0,68000.0,68000.0,74000.0,121000.0,95000.0,62000.0,73000.0,68000.0,86000.0,81000.0,252000.0,126000.0,67000.0,67000.0,72000.0,74000.0,71000.0,60000.0,69000.0,64000.0,68000.0,67000.0,102000.0,530000.0,251000.0,125000.0,476000.0,970000.0,236000.0,74000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,3400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2000.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,3000.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,1900.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,3100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,3300.0,9000.0,3100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2200.0,2500.0,2300.0,2600.0,2400.0,4500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,3800.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2500.0,2800.0,3200.0,5200.0,4500.0,5000.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,4100.0,3900.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,4300.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,6200.0,21000.0,10500.0,6500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,9000.0,6000.0,4400.0,4000.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,4000.0,4100.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,6000.0,14000.0,7500.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3100.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,4000.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3500.0,3700.0,4000.0,4600.0,4800.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,4200.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4200.0,4300.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4600.0,6500.0,5000.0,6000.0,9500.0,12000.0,6500.0,5000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1236.0,1074.0,1272.0,1203.0,1557.0,1112.0,1056.0,1081.0,1290.0,1317.0,1350.0,1221.0,1310.0,1137.0,1345.0,1263.0,1974.0,1165.0,1109.0,1128.0,1342.0,1373.0,1403.0,1275.0,1394.0,1205.0,1422.0,1338.0,12840.0,1486.0,1230.0,1256.0,3428.0,1463.0,1508.0,1357.0,1450.0,1254.0,1476.0,1394.0,3820.0,1300.0,1229.0,1253.0,1513.0,1557.0,1602.0,1442.0,1550.0,1343.0,1572.0,1485.0,7310.0,3954.0,1463.0,1396.0,1654.0,1688.0,1738.0,1560.0,1655.0,1435.0,1692.0,1597.0,9920.0,5144.0,1538.0,1467.0,1749.0,1794.0,1844.0,1668.0,1767.0,2544.0,3270.0,2910.0,7624.0,4530.0,1587.0,1501.0,1784.0,1829.0,1882.0,1696.0,1914.0,1720.0,2011.0,1910.0,3125.0,1996.0,1847.0,1864.0,2138.0,16240.0,9302.0,5967.0,4560.0,2870.0,2170.0,1944.0,4890.0,2385.0,1980.0,2064.0,8310.0,20140.0,13560.0,6462.0,3120.0,2615.0,3044.0,2820.0,6200.0,5040.0,3315.0,7980.0,15320.0,24180.0,13420.0,4926.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[480.0,450.0,500.0,470.0,490.0,520.0,480.0,500.0,460.0,760.0,610.0,490.0,450.0,430.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,500.0,470.0,460.0,440.0,470.0,450.0,480.0,460.0,440.0,480.0,470.0,520.0,850.0,1400.0,1100.0,650.0,560.0,520.0,490.0,460.0,430.0,470.0,450.0,480.0,510.0,490.0,470.0,440.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,450.0,460.0,500.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,500.0,470.0,460.0,850.0,620.0,700.0,520.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,450.0,480.0,520.0,490.0,470.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,460.0,440.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,470.0,650.0,560.0,520.0,490.0,470.0,500.0,520.0,490.0,510.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,500.0,480.0,500.0,500.0,480.0,520.0,550.0,750.0,1800.0,850.0,1000.0,5000.0,8500.0,1400.0,800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1650.0,1700.0,1750.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1650.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1550.0,1600.0,1650.0,1500.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,2100.0,2400.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,4200.0,2600.0,1400.0,1300.0,6500.0,14000.0,4800.0,2200.0]}},{"title":"Hank Green","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Hank Green\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[27663,32283,35287,37892,38063,30721,25867,31323,32200,33238,32240,26385,27705,27290,28053,27903,27301,29564,23539,21282,23999,32211,24360,22816,24375,22814,22371,23498,22815,23544,29062,21630,25828,29593,22138,21953,23905,20202,18915,18443,21107,20469,25193,24397,22171,25160,22427,21097,21699,20683,22123,27906,29415,45846,41272,31314,31557,50500,57872,56361,72093,46677,50176,64139,52477,48244,32555,30127,30753,31031,25070,27727,41539,37257,31159,31148,27009,30068,39452,28826,28480,48974,55082,34660,39677,35592,30826,34770,193043,152839,72099,75531,54858,47468,41590,36611,65560,56827,45777,37817,40993,41020,43791,37494,31341,29627,35201,31617,49797,39278,32976,41377,53403,55782,46047,62281,116247,70510,57953,49936],"flat_reference_value":16900.897043866466,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[28000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,29000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,33000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,40000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,31000.0,29000.0,35000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,44000.0,39000.0,43000.0,95000.0,70000.0,48000.0,41000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,50000.0,47000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,43000.0,42000.0,50000.0,55000.0,58000.0,65000.0,110000.0,80000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,85000.0,78000.0,82000.0,80000.0,82000.0,85000.0,80000.0,79000.0,76000.0,78000.0,75000.0,72000.0,80000.0,74000.0,78000.0,76000.0,78000.0,90000.0,85000.0,78000.0,74000.0,76000.0,72000.0,70000.0,76000.0,70000.0,74000.0,75000.0,480000.0,220000.0,130000.0,150000.0,110000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,90000.0,80000.0,85000.0,83000.0,90000.0,160000.0,120000.0,95000.0,85000.0,82000.0,80000.0,76000.0,100000.0,80000.0,85000.0,80000.0,82000.0,90000.0,85000.0,80000.0,76000.0,78000.0,74000.0,72000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[31200.0,28400.0,29100.0,28700.0,30500.0,34800.0,31900.0,27600.0,32400.0,31800.0,33500.0,29800.0,32100.0,28900.0,30400.0,29600.0,31200.0,36200.0,33100.0,28500.0,33800.0,37400.0,34100.0,30900.0,33600.0,30200.0,32800.0,31500.0,33900.0,38400.0,34700.0,36100.0,78500.0,64200.0,45800.0,41200.0,42900.0,36800.0,38500.0,37200.0,39100.0,41600.0,44300.0,37900.0,41500.0,40800.0,42100.0,43700.0,46500.0,44200.0,54800.0,62300.0,65100.0,68400.0,96200.0,74500.0,71800.0,75400.0,79200.0,83600.0,91400.0,86700.0,94200.0,88500.0,82100.0,76800.0,74300.0,71900.0,75600.0,72400.0,69800.0,68200.0,71500.0,64300.0,66800.0,63900.0,65400.0,69700.0,66100.0,62800.0,64500.0,63200.0,61900.0,60400.0,64800.0,58900.0,62400.0,61200.0,475000.0,168000.0,104000.0,182000.0,108000.0,84500.0,76200.0,72800.0,74100.0,66400.0,68200.0,65900.0,71400.0,114000.0,82500.0,68900.0,65200.0,63800.0,62100.0,59400.0,63200.0,56800.0,59500.0,57900.0,60400.0,62800.0,58600.0,64100.0,59200.0,57400.0,55800.0,54300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[42000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,41000.0,46000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,37000.0,44000.0,39000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,45000.0,39000.0,37000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,45000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,47000.0,43000.0,49000.0,125000.0,82000.0,52000.0,56000.0,47000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,49000.0,52000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,46000.0,51000.0,49000.0,46000.0,53000.0,56000.0,51000.0,53000.0,85000.0,62000.0,54000.0,52000.0,55000.0,61000.0,59000.0,53000.0,55000.0,56000.0,58000.0,59000.0,57000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,56000.0,63000.0,62000.0,56000.0,57000.0,55000.0,58000.0,63000.0,59000.0,57000.0,55000.0,56000.0,57000.0,65000.0,61000.0,54000.0,58000.0,57000.0,415000.0,145000.0,86000.0,135000.0,79000.0,65000.0,62000.0,68000.0,64000.0,59000.0,62000.0,60000.0,63000.0,65000.0,59000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,58000.0,57000.0,52000.0,54000.0,53000.0,55000.0,57000.0,54000.0,52000.0,51000.0,52000.0,51000.0,56000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,33000.0,34000.0,68000.0,48000.0,40000.0,36000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,35000.0,34000.0,40000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,62000.0,50000.0,49000.0,52000.0,53000.0,54000.0,60000.0,58000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,58000.0,57000.0,58000.0,57000.0,55000.0,58000.0,55000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,55000.0,56000.0,55000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,60000.0,57000.0,58000.0,57000.0,330000.0,120000.0,85000.0,75000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0,110000.0,75000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,65000.0,64000.0,63000.0,65000.0,66000.0,63000.0,66000.0,62000.0,63000.0,62000.0,61000.0,62000.0,75000.0,140000.0,90000.0,75000.0,70000.0,66000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,75000.0,58000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,48000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,68000.0,62000.0,62000.0,65000.0,68000.0,72000.0,82000.0,85000.0,90000.0,92000.0,90000.0,88000.0,88000.0,85000.0,85000.0,84000.0,82000.0,82000.0,88000.0,80000.0,82000.0,80000.0,80000.0,78000.0,78000.0,78000.0,78000.0,80000.0,80000.0,80000.0,88000.0,85000.0,88000.0,88000.0,420000.0,160000.0,125000.0,120000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,98000.0,90000.0,90000.0,86000.0,88000.0,110000.0,95000.0,85000.0,82000.0,82000.0,80000.0,80000.0,85000.0,78000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,75000.0,76000.0,120000.0,100000.0,82000.0,78000.0,76000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[45000.0,40000.0,44000.0,42000.0,46000.0,41000.0,37000.0,38000.0,48000.0,50000.0,47000.0,40000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48000.0,60000.0,52000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,55000.0,57000.0,52000.0,44000.0,55000.0,50000.0,60000.0,52000.0,55000.0,45000.0,43000.0,48000.0,75000.0,85000.0,62000.0,48000.0,58000.0,52000.0,54000.0,50000.0,53000.0,44000.0,55000.0,46000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,47000.0,56000.0,50000.0,62000.0,68000.0,58000.0,46000.0,62000.0,55000.0,62000.0,58000.0,56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,56000.0,60000.0,50000.0,47000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,47000.0,46000.0,58000.0,55000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,46000.0,65000.0,47000.0,620000.0,150000.0,120000.0,95000.0,125000.0,110000.0,100000.0,75000.0,65000.0,62000.0,62000.0,63000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,75000.0,85000.0,100000.0,75000.0,90000.0,82000.0,75000.0,70000.0,72000.0,73000.0,74000.0,70000.0,80000.0,76000.0,73000.0,68000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[15500.0,13200.0,14300.0,13700.0,13100.0,11800.0,11500.0,12100.0,12900.0,13400.0,12900.0,11200.0,14800.0,12600.0,13800.0,12400.0,11900.0,10800.0,11200.0,11500.0,12200.0,12800.0,12100.0,10500.0,13500.0,11800.0,12900.0,12200.0,11800.0,11000.0,11500.0,13200.0,48000.0,31200.0,18000.0,13400.0,14800.0,12300.0,13100.0,12500.0,12000.0,10900.0,11300.0,11800.0,12200.0,12900.0,12400.0,10800.0,13900.0,12900.0,16500.0,17800.0,16200.0,15400.0,38500.0,22400.0,16800.0,15900.0,15200.0,13800.0,17200.0,15000.0,16800.0,15900.0,15500.0,14200.0,14800.0,15400.0,16200.0,17500.0,16800.0,14900.0,19500.0,17200.0,19800.0,20500.0,21200.0,19800.0,20500.0,22300.0,23500.0,24800.0,23600.0,20700.0,25100.0,22800.0,26500.0,25800.0,212000.0,98000.0,54200.0,45800.0,36200.0,31500.0,29800.0,26200.0,30500.0,27500.0,28900.0,27200.0,28100.0,24900.0,25300.0,26100.0,27500.0,28900.0,27400.0,23800.0,27300.0,23200.0,25400.0,24100.0,23600.0,21800.0,22200.0,22900.0,23800.0,24500.0,23100.0,20500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,32000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,29000.0,35000.0,37000.0,33000.0,28000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,41000.0,46000.0,39000.0,32000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0,39000.0,128000.0,86000.0,58000.0,43000.0,54000.0,51000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,43000.0,48000.0,43000.0,53000.0,55000.0,50000.0,41000.0,53000.0,54000.0,78000.0,82000.0,71000.0,63000.0,122000.0,92000.0,73000.0,76000.0,68000.0,57000.0,78000.0,74000.0,79000.0,77000.0,73000.0,67000.0,63000.0,68000.0,83000.0,87000.0,81000.0,70000.0,85000.0,82000.0,85000.0,83000.0,81000.0,75000.0,71000.0,77000.0,91000.0,94000.0,88000.0,76000.0,91000.0,89000.0,93000.0,91000.0,525000.0,282000.0,172000.0,152000.0,195000.0,121000.0,106000.0,89000.0,106000.0,102000.0,107000.0,101000.0,103000.0,93000.0,89000.0,95000.0,112000.0,115000.0,109000.0,91000.0,117000.0,113000.0,116000.0,113000.0,111000.0,101000.0,96000.0,103000.0,120000.0,123000.0,118000.0,98000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,52000.0,61000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,46000.0,46000.0,44000.0,58000.0,53000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,173000.0,113000.0,70000.0,65000.0,53000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,68000.0,53000.0,53000.0,50000.0,65000.0,68000.0,62000.0,65000.0,62000.0,65000.0,62000.0,212000.0,92000.0,68000.0,68000.0,65000.0,87000.0,74000.0,67000.0,70000.0,67000.0,70000.0,67000.0,67000.0,67000.0,74000.0,74000.0,70000.0,92000.0,65000.0,59000.0,62000.0,59000.0,62000.0,59000.0,59000.0,59000.0,65000.0,65000.0,62000.0,78000.0,58000.0,52000.0,55000.0,52000.0,655000.0,302000.0,152000.0,132000.0,98000.0,58000.0,55000.0,71000.0,65000.0,59000.0,62000.0,59000.0,62000.0,59000.0,59000.0,59000.0,65000.0,65000.0,62000.0,78000.0,61000.0,55000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,61000.0,61000.0,58000.0,74000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[12400.0,11700.0,13000.0,12500.0,13200.0,14700.0,14200.0,13600.0,14800.0,13200.0,12700.0,11500.0,13900.0,23800.0,17800.0,15000.0,15300.0,16900.0,16200.0,17900.0,17600.0,15200.0,14800.0,13400.0,15100.0,14600.0,15600.0,15100.0,15900.0,17600.0,17000.0,16300.0,17200.0,15500.0,15100.0,13700.0,19100.0,16800.0,17400.0,17000.0,17700.0,19400.0,18600.0,18100.0,19300.0,17200.0,18600.0,15900.0,17500.0,18200.0,27900.0,26300.0,21400.0,21200.0,20100.0,19700.0,20700.0,19100.0,20400.0,18100.0,21300.0,19700.0,20400.0,19800.0,20600.0,22400.0,21500.0,20900.0,22200.0,19900.0,19500.0,17900.0,20800.0,23300.0,22700.0,21000.0,21600.0,23500.0,22600.0,21800.0,23200.0,20900.0,20500.0,18900.0,22000.0,21300.0,22500.0,21800.0,89000.0,57000.0,37000.0,32500.0,31000.0,38000.0,45000.0,35500.0,23100.0,22400.0,28800.0,23700.0,27800.0,25800.0,25000.0,24400.0,25700.0,24100.0,23600.0,21700.0,23300.0,22600.0,23200.0,22700.0,23900.0,25100.0,24300.0,23600.0,24600.0,22900.0,22400.0,20600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[55000.0,56000.0,59000.0,58000.0,57000.0,53000.0,49000.0,50000.0,60000.0,59000.0,56000.0,51000.0,50000.0,51000.0,54000.0,53000.0,52000.0,48500.0,44000.0,45000.0,55000.0,54000.0,51000.0,46000.0,48000.0,49000.0,51000.0,51000.0,50000.0,47000.0,43000.0,44000.0,52000.0,96000.0,60000.0,45000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,48000.0,47000.0,44000.0,40000.0,41000.0,49000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,48000.0,49000.0,59000.0,63000.0,50000.0,47000.0,43000.0,44000.0,52000.0,86000.0,60000.0,45000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,45000.0,49000.0,41000.0,37000.0,38000.0,46000.0,45000.0,43000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,436000.0,193000.0,100000.0,66000.0,127000.0,67000.0,45000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,29000.0,29000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4800.0,5100.0,5400.0,5700.0,6000.0,6300.0,5500.0,5800.0,6600.0,7400.0,25000.0,12500.0,20000.0,8500.0,9200.0,9700.0,10100.0,10600.0,9100.0,9600.0,10800.0,11500.0,16000.0,13500.0,13200.0,14000.0,22000.0,15200.0,23000.0,16200.0,13800.0,14600.0,16000.0,17200.0,20500.0,18000.0,16500.0,17200.0,18500.0,19800.0,21000.0,22300.0,18700.0,20000.0,22000.0,23500.0,25500.0,33000.0,23500.0,33000.0,54000.0,63000.0,57000.0,46000.0,38000.0,45000.0,49000.0,57000.0,88000.0,54000.0,145000.0,76000.0,55000.0,49000.0,51000.0,54000.0,43000.0,49000.0,62000.0,58000.0,64000.0,57000.0,51000.0,47000.0,68000.0,52000.0,56000.0,82000.0,45000.0,43000.0,50000.0,54000.0,70000.0,58000.0,60000.0,57000.0,64000.0,155000.0,780000.0,115000.0,62000.0,58000.0,66000.0,69000.0,76000.0,69000.0,62000.0,58000.0,66000.0,72000.0,95000.0,105000.0,66000.0,61000.0,73000.0,180000.0,1250000.0,160000.0,1350000.0,105000.0,95000.0,100000.0,105000.0,100000.0,70000.0,68000.0,105000.0,110000.0,120000.0,140000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,41000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,42000.0,48000.0,48000.0,60000.0,62000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,56000.0,57000.0,56000.0,52000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,56000.0,56000.0,58000.0,72000.0,62000.0,62000.0,62000.0,62000.0,57000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,63000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,66000.0,67000.0,68000.0,62000.0,70000.0,68000.0,72000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,68000.0,68000.0,75000.0,78000.0,76000.0,70000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,88000.0,150000.0,105000.0,95000.0,98000.0,100000.0,98000.0,92000.0,100000.0,98000.0,102000.0,100000.0,98000.0,95000.0,95000.0,96000.0,108000.0,112000.0,110000.0,100000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3350.0,2600.0,2700.0,2450.0,2250.0,2300.0,2150.0,2200.0,2550.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0,4150.0,2800.0,2950.0,2700.0,2550.0,2750.0,2500.0,2650.0,3250.0,3050.0,2950.0,2750.0,4500.0,3050.0,3350.0,3000.0,2800.0,3100.0,2850.0,3050.0,3850.0,3550.0,3300.0,3100.0,5100.0,3500.0,3850.0,3350.0,3150.0,3500.0,3250.0,3500.0,4650.0,4150.0,4350.0,4700.0,6100.0,5400.0,6900.0,6300.0,7100.0,6600.0,5900.0,6100.0,6800.0,8300.0,9100.0,8000.0,10300.0,8100.0,8600.0,7600.0,7300.0,7900.0,7100.0,7600.0,9100.0,8500.0,8900.0,8300.0,12800.0,9700.0,10400.0,9100.0,8700.0,9300.0,8400.0,8800.0,10800.0,10100.0,10600.0,9900.0,14800.0,11000.0,12400.0,10400.0,9900.0,10900.0,9700.0,10300.0,13400.0,12400.0,12900.0,12000.0,16600.0,12500.0,14000.0,11600.0,11100.0,12100.0,10600.0,11200.0,14100.0,13200.0,13800.0,12800.0,17700.0,13300.0,14800.0,12300.0,11800.0,12900.0,11300.0,11900.0,15300.0,14000.0,14500.0,13500.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3600.0,3400.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4400.0,4500.0,4200.0,3800.0,4200.0,3900.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4400.0,4800.0,4500.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5400.0,5700.0,6200.0,7000.0,13000.0,8500.0,6500.0,6200.0,5800.0,6300.0,6100.0,6400.0,6600.0,6800.0,7100.0,7400.0,7600.0,7000.0,6200.0,7000.0,6800.0,7500.0,8500.0,10500.0,11200.0,10000.0,9300.0,9000.0,9200.0,8500.0,7600.0,8000.0,7600.0,8500.0,8200.0,8700.0,9000.0,8800.0,9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,9100.0,8200.0,8800.0,8500.0,9400.0,9200.0,9800.0,10500.0,11200.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,10000.0,10500.0,72000.0,33000.0,19000.0,12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,9800.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9800.0,9200.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9800.0,9000.0,8200.0,8500.0,8200.0,9000.0,8800.0,9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,10000.0,9600.0,9300.0,8800.0,8000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,4200.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,3700.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4600.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3800.0,4000.0,4300.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,5200.0,4300.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,4800.0,5200.0,4800.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3100.0,3100.0,3600.0,4100.0,3500.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0]}},{"title":"Eran Zahavi","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Eran Zahavi\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5102,4591,4301,6223,7881,15781,22879,9523,8988,7394,7608,8214,9988,6375,8401,9713,8817,9672,13258,12877,12065,6661,8628,7268,9338,8074,15047,6290,6950,6405,8206,8312,7075,6008,9402,4555,8847,5589,40451,9086,9008,36074,17079,10865,42091,38704,34685,11194,10191,9661,6441,7429,7048,6442,8371,20634,53784,50291,24226,10347,21609,30900,23388,9557,47655,17934,23746,18292,38696,44206,19306,8912,11946,10838,19432,19911,13456,15393,10416,16813,10319,8966,7625,8229,7440,5804,8734,5686,5121,7954,8042,10083,8467,11114,18953,9989,8007,7920,24209,7575,9482,8110,7804,4908,7003,7169,10836,4847,5566,4155,6162,4417,7104,7571,5539,6097,7451,7065,5146,4299],"flat_reference_value":17005.75740695597,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[3200.0,3000.0,3700.0,3800.0,5200.0,14000.0,19000.0,9200.0,6200.0,5100.0,4200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4800.0,5900.0,5200.0,4700.0,6500.0,4700.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3900.0,3900.0,4100.0,3600.0,3900.0,4200.0,4700.0,4200.0,4000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,14500.0,7100.0,5200.0,12000.0,6100.0,5600.0,13500.0,11500.0,8200.0,5700.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,3000.0,3400.0,4000.0,4400.0,6800.0,24000.0,14000.0,10000.0,8500.0,8300.0,8500.0,11000.0,8200.0,17000.0,8500.0,9200.0,14500.0,12500.0,10500.0,9800.0,7600.0,7200.0,7400.0,7500.0,6900.0,8400.0,15000.0,11000.0,9300.0,6900.0,6500.0,5900.0,5200.0,5500.0,5700.0,6200.0,5900.0,6000.0,5100.0,5600.0,6800.0,7200.0,8500.0,6800.0,6200.0,6100.0,6500.0,16000.0,7600.0,8500.0,5900.0,5700.0,7100.0,6400.0,6700.0,6600.0,5900.0,6000.0,6100.0,7000.0,6400.0,7600.0,6200.0,6200.0,7200.0,6500.0,6100.0,6000.0,5500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[8200.0,6800.0,7100.0,7900.0,11500.0,19500.0,22000.0,11200.0,9400.0,8800.0,7600.0,6500.0,7200.0,6400.0,8500.0,7800.0,7400.0,8900.0,11800.0,10500.0,18500.0,9200.0,12400.0,7800.0,8100.0,7300.0,9800.0,8200.0,7900.0,7100.0,8400.0,8700.0,10200.0,9600.0,11500.0,7400.0,7800.0,7100.0,26500.0,10400.0,9500.0,24000.0,11200.0,10800.0,19500.0,18200.0,23500.0,10500.0,9800.0,8200.0,7600.0,6400.0,6900.0,7500.0,9200.0,14500.0,46000.0,34000.0,21500.0,16800.0,18500.0,27500.0,22000.0,16500.0,38000.0,15200.0,34500.0,31000.0,28500.0,21000.0,17500.0,24000.0,14200.0,17800.0,23500.0,33000.0,21500.0,26000.0,14500.0,16200.0,18500.0,11800.0,10500.0,9600.0,10200.0,9400.0,10800.0,9500.0,9800.0,8900.0,9700.0,12800.0,12200.0,29500.0,34000.0,16500.0,12800.0,11500.0,28500.0,12400.0,16800.0,10500.0,11200.0,12600.0,11800.0,10900.0,11400.0,9800.0,10200.0,8900.0,9400.0,9800.0,17500.0,11200.0,8600.0,8200.0,7800.0,7400.0,7100.0,6800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5800.0,5200.0,6100.0,6900.0,8400.0,19500.0,41200.0,17400.0,14200.0,11800.0,10500.0,9100.0,8900.0,8200.0,9800.0,11200.0,12100.0,11500.0,14800.0,13900.0,11400.0,10800.0,12600.0,8700.0,8400.0,8100.0,13200.0,11500.0,10900.0,8800.0,9700.0,11200.0,10400.0,12100.0,11800.0,7900.0,8500.0,8800.0,34100.0,12800.0,14200.0,26800.0,16100.0,15400.0,22300.0,27900.0,36500.0,17200.0,12400.0,7600.0,5100.0,4900.0,5800.0,7100.0,8900.0,14200.0,74500.0,41200.0,21800.0,17300.0,24100.0,21500.0,18200.0,14600.0,98400.0,19100.0,47600.0,28900.0,22400.0,17800.0,19600.0,24300.0,15200.0,13800.0,14900.0,12700.0,17100.0,28400.0,22100.0,16300.0,11800.0,11200.0,9800.0,8900.0,9400.0,8800.0,10500.0,9200.0,9700.0,8500.0,9800.0,12400.0,10600.0,11800.0,16200.0,12100.0,10100.0,9500.0,21800.0,11400.0,12900.0,9200.0,8900.0,10400.0,9800.0,9100.0,8700.0,8100.0,7900.0,7400.0,8200.0,7800.0,8600.0,7900.0,7500.0,8100.0,7700.0,7300.0,7100.0,6900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,5400.0,6500.0,7800.0,14500.0,9500.0,8200.0,8000.0,7400.0,6800.0,7000.0,6500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8500.0,7800.0,8400.0,8200.0,8600.0,9500.0,8800.0,7200.0,7000.0,6300.0,7400.0,7000.0,6600.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,7000.0,7400.0,7600.0,6200.0,6500.0,6400.0,16500.0,9000.0,7800.0,9500.0,7000.0,6800.0,8600.0,8800.0,9200.0,6400.0,6200.0,5800.0,5000.0,4600.0,4700.0,5200.0,7500.0,11500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8200.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6400.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,6800.0,6000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,3000.0,2700.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[13000.0,12000.0,14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,27000.0,22000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,15000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,14000.0,16000.0,15000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,38000.0,16000.0,14000.0,20000.0,15000.0,15000.0,28000.0,27000.0,38000.0,20000.0,17000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,14000.0,16000.0,20000.0,55000.0,38000.0,35000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,30000.0,26000.0,30000.0,20000.0,25000.0,32000.0,32000.0,28000.0,26000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,15000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10500.0,9800.0,11000.0,12200.0,21000.0,58000.0,32000.0,10500.0,9200.0,8800.0,8600.0,9000.0,9500.0,8800.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,10000.0,9800.0,10500.0,12000.0,26000.0,29000.0,9500.0,8800.0,8200.0,9000.0,8500.0,8200.0,7800.0,8200.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,11800.0,8600.0,9200.0,8800.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10000.0,9800.0,12500.0,14000.0,16000.0,30000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9200.0,6500.0,5800.0,6000.0,6800.0,8200.0,12000.0,62000.0,38000.0,26000.0,15000.0,13500.0,11500.0,14000.0,10500.0,9800.0,10500.0,9500.0,13000.0,21000.0,46000.0,42000.0,13000.0,12000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9200.0,11000.0,15000.0,31000.0,13000.0,9800.0,8600.0,8200.0,7500.0,7800.0,6800.0,7600.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,8200.0,8600.0,7400.0,12500.0,9200.0,7800.0,6600.0,5800.0,6400.0,5600.0,6400.0,6800.0,7200.0,6400.0,5600.0,6200.0,15500.0,7400.0,6200.0,5400.0,5800.0,5600.0,6400.0,9500.0,11500.0,7200.0,6200.0,5800.0,5600.0,5800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3400.0,4200.0,11500.0,8500.0,5200.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,3600.0,3400.0,5800.0,4500.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2600.0,2400.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,14800.0,6500.0,4200.0,4800.0,3200.0,3600.0,5600.0,11800.0,7200.0,5000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4800.0,5200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,5500.0,13800.0,8200.0,6000.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4200.0,4000.0,4800.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,4200.0,4100.0,4800.0,10200.0,8800.0,6200.0,4500.0,4200.0,3800.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3800.0,3000.0,3500.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,6200.0,3500.0,3300.0,2800.0,2500.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,2500.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2400.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6500.0,5000.0,6000.0,7500.0,9000.0,24000.0,14000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,8000.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,16000.0,22000.0,12000.0,8000.0,6500.0,8000.0,9000.0,9500.0,11000.0,10500.0,9000.0,11000.0,12500.0,14000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8000.0,12000.0,9500.0,10000.0,12500.0,10000.0,9500.0,18000.0,26000.0,20000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,8000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,6500.0,8500.0,11000.0,12500.0,32000.0,14000.0,11000.0,12000.0,26000.0,11000.0,10500.0,17000.0,12000.0,11500.0,32000.0,45000.0,22000.0,11500.0,9500.0,8500.0,12500.0,8500.0,9500.0,13000.0,9500.0,9000.0,11500.0,10500.0,14000.0,12000.0,9000.0,8500.0,11500.0,8500.0,9000.0,11000.0,8500.0,8500.0,11000.0,13000.0,12000.0,9500.0,9000.0,12000.0,18000.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,9500.0,13000.0,16000.0,17000.0,14000.0,10500.0,9500.0,8500.0,11500.0,8500.0,10000.0,15000.0,10000.0,8500.0,11000.0,11500.0,13000.0,8500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[600.0,650.0,700.0,750.0,800.0,900.0,4500.0,2200.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,750.0,800.0,750.0,850.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,650.0,800.0,850.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1500.0,1400.0,1600.0,1800.0,3000.0,2000.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,1500.0,3000.0,12000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3200.0,2800.0,2500.0,3500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3500.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,2600.0,2500.0,3000.0,6000.0,4500.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,3500.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,3000.0,3200.0,4000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,3000.0,3500.0,4000.0,4500.0,15000.0,6000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,2400.0],"meta/muse-ember":[13200.0,13800.0,15200.0,16800.0,15800.0,17500.0,43000.0,24500.0,21500.0,20200.0,18800.0,12800.0,11200.0,15200.0,19200.0,21500.0,20200.0,17800.0,19800.0,20500.0,21800.0,20800.0,19200.0,12400.0,12800.0,16800.0,20200.0,22500.0,21800.0,16200.0,21500.0,22800.0,23200.0,22400.0,21200.0,13800.0,14200.0,17800.0,21400.0,23500.0,22800.0,18500.0,21500.0,22500.0,23800.0,23200.0,24500.0,22800.0,14800.0,15800.0,16500.0,13200.0,12800.0,12200.0,13500.0,18500.0,38500.0,24500.0,23200.0,21200.0,22500.0,26800.0,23500.0,21500.0,19800.0,14200.0,18200.0,22500.0,24500.0,23200.0,22500.0,20200.0,21200.0,23500.0,22200.0,21500.0,24500.0,34500.0,24800.0,25500.0,23200.0,22800.0,20200.0,17800.0,19800.0,26500.0,32500.0,33500.0,21200.0,26800.0,18200.0,28500.0,24500.0,23800.0,22200.0,20200.0,20200.0,26800.0,38500.0,24500.0,28500.0,43000.0,19200.0,26800.0,34500.0,27500.0,25500.0,22500.0,21200.0,24500.0,23500.0,24800.0,26500.0,17500.0,18500.0,24500.0,23500.0,22500.0,21200.0,18500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[11000.0,12500.0,16000.0,14000.0,15000.0,280000.0,420000.0,95000.0,140000.0,90000.0,70000.0,45000.0,22000.0,20000.0,38000.0,25000.0,24000.0,35000.0,22000.0,26000.0,48000.0,42000.0,36000.0,24000.0,20000.0,19000.0,30000.0,22000.0,21000.0,26000.0,19000.0,23000.0,40000.0,34000.0,30000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,28000.0,20000.0,19000.0,25000.0,17000.0,21000.0,32000.0,28000.0,26000.0,18000.0,20000.0,19000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,25000.0,45000.0,70000.0,120000.0,380000.0,140000.0,85000.0,40000.0,38000.0,75000.0,45000.0,42000.0,70000.0,28000.0,30000.0,85000.0,70000.0,60000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,55000.0,46000.0,65000.0,80000.0,550000.0,90000.0,75000.0,65000.0,60000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,70000.0,50000.0,130000.0,75000.0,40000.0,55000.0,85000.0,380000.0,220000.0,70000.0,55000.0,52000.0,650000.0,190000.0,140000.0,85000.0,45000.0,60000.0,95000.0,80000.0,100000.0,55000.0,48000.0,46000.0,100000.0,50000.0,48000.0,90000.0,42000.0,45000.0,140000.0,90000.0,160000.0,50000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1160.0,1190.0,1280.0,1240.0,1350.0,1380.0,1190.0,1090.0,1460.0,1580.0,1510.0,1350.0,1240.0,1290.0,1370.0,1420.0,1510.0,1450.0,1270.0,1160.0,1550.0,1670.0,1610.0,1430.0,1390.0,1460.0,1520.0,1480.0,2140.0,4620.0,2640.0,1570.0,1730.0,1830.0,1760.0,1590.0,1510.0,1570.0,1650.0,1600.0,1770.0,1860.0,1580.0,1430.0,1880.0,2170.0,2360.0,1810.0,1640.0,1700.0,2050.0,2280.0,2420.0,1950.0,1670.0,1510.0,2020.0,2290.0,2180.0,1940.0,1810.0,1880.0,1980.0,1910.0,2070.0,2190.0,1860.0,1690.0,2290.0,2550.0,2440.0,2180.0,2030.0,2120.0,2250.0,2170.0,2370.0,2460.0,2100.0,1900.0,2620.0,2860.0,2740.0,2450.0,2310.0,2380.0,2490.0,2420.0,2610.0,2710.0,2290.0,2100.0,2830.0,3090.0,2960.0,2670.0,2510.0,2610.0,2750.0,2660.0,2850.0,2960.0,2510.0,2310.0,3070.0,3350.0,3210.0,2900.0,2740.0,2860.0,3000.0,2910.0,3130.0,3280.0,2780.0,2560.0,3370.0,3660.0,3480.0,3160.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[6000.0,9000.0,6000.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,4000.0,3800.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,4000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,4000.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3500.0,5000.0,12000.0,9000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,6500.0,5000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,5000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2700.0,1900.0,1650.0,1800.0,1750.0,1650.0,1550.0,2000.0,2050.0,2250.0,2050.0,1750.0,2450.0,2050.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,2150.0,2050.0,2200.0,1850.0,1700.0,2150.0,1850.0,1750.0,1950.0,1850.0,2600.0,2750.0,2350.0,2250.0,2450.0,2150.0,2050.0,2300.0,2150.0,2200.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2700.0,3100.0,3600.0,4200.0,4900.0,9000.0,4100.0,3150.0,2550.0,2450.0,2400.0,2550.0,2650.0,3050.0,3150.0,3350.0,3150.0,5650.0,17500.0,11500.0,5300.0,4050.0,5350.0,29500.0,41000.0,7600.0,5250.0,5800.0,6250.0,5050.0,4900.0,3700.0,3150.0,3050.0,3250.0,3550.0,4050.0,4450.0,3850.0,3650.0,4150.0,5900.0,14500.0,9200.0,4700.0,4100.0,4500.0,3800.0,4000.0,4600.0,4100.0,3900.0,4350.0,4650.0,4100.0,3500.0,3700.0,4100.0,4900.0,6800.0,5350.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4750.0,4200.0,4100.0,3700.0,4050.0,4350.0,5050.0,6600.0,5300.0,4850.0,4600.0,4300.0,4900.0,6300.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1250.0,1200.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,3000.0,6200.0,3500.0,2200.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1800.0,1600.0,2000.0,1800.0,2300.0,2600.0,2400.0,2100.0,1900.0,2100.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1600.0,1900.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1450.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,1550.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1450.0,1250.0,1300.0,1450.0,1700.0,6500.0,3800.0,3200.0,2700.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,3100.0,2300.0,1900.0,2200.0,1800.0,1900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2200.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,5200.0,3300.0,3800.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,2100.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2000.0,1750.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1650.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4000.0,3500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2400.0,1800.0,1700.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1100.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,750.0,720.0,800.0,850.0,820.0,780.0,750.0,800.0,780.0,800.0,760.0,720.0,680.0,650.0,720.0,750.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,700.0,680.0,700.0,660.0,620.0,600.0,580.0,640.0,660.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,620.0,600.0,620.0,580.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,570.0,580.0,560.0,550.0,530.0,560.0,540.0,550.0,520.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,510.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,470.0]}},{"title":"Physical geography","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Physical geography\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[16359,15303,13955,13646,13587,14996,12656,17487,31049,20262,17884,14915,19073,17786,16788,14913,15615,15881,16251,20017,33930,22970,20724,17724,20815,18874,18192,16021,16156,16981,17587,21124,30468,22037,20657,21223,19190,14615,14882,14420,14336,13634,13303,18782,24672,18268,17636,14654,16932,16204,13838,16466,12924,12610,11303,16531,29638,23501,19872,17353,23495,21109,21598,15177,14458,13563,14636,19080,24245,19465,17006,16253,17877,15596,16405,14237,15305,14211,12455,13930,20317,16171,14265,11084,13163,12766,11169,8937,9039,8277,8320,11176,15379,13267,10606,10337,11181,10743,10086,9442,9154,7391,7671,10486,14510,11133,8375,7905,8615,7113,6285,5248,5430,4841,4816,6029,7685,5926,5006,4789],"flat_reference_value":16979.912423985596,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[19500.0,20500.0,21800.0,20600.0,19400.0,15700.0,14200.0,16500.0,22200.0,25000.0,23600.0,18100.0,20700.0,21100.0,22900.0,21300.0,20500.0,16500.0,15100.0,17600.0,23500.0,26200.0,24600.0,18800.0,21500.0,21900.0,23700.0,22200.0,21100.0,17000.0,15600.0,18300.0,24400.0,27000.0,25400.0,19400.0,22200.0,22600.0,24400.0,23100.0,21800.0,17600.0,16100.0,18800.0,25100.0,27800.0,26000.0,19900.0,22800.0,23100.0,20500.0,19300.0,19800.0,17000.0,16400.0,19500.0,26700.0,29400.0,27800.0,21400.0,24000.0,24200.0,26000.0,24500.0,22900.0,18400.0,16800.0,19700.0,26500.0,29200.0,27400.0,20800.0,23200.0,23500.0,25200.0,23700.0,22500.0,17900.0,16300.0,19200.0,25800.0,28500.0,26700.0,20300.0,22700.0,22900.0,24500.0,22900.0,21600.0,17200.0,15600.0,18400.0,24800.0,27400.0,25700.0,19500.0,21700.0,21900.0,23400.0,21900.0,20600.0,16400.0,14900.0,17600.0,23700.0,26200.0,24500.0,18600.0,20600.0,20700.0,22200.0,20800.0,19500.0,15500.0,14100.0,16700.0,22500.0,24900.0,23300.0,17600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[34200.0,38500.0,39100.0,38800.0,37400.0,28100.0,25600.0,32900.0,46800.0,47500.0,42300.0,31800.0,35100.0,38900.0,40200.0,37900.0,36800.0,27400.0,25100.0,32400.0,46200.0,47100.0,41900.0,30900.0,34600.0,37800.0,38700.0,37500.0,35900.0,26800.0,24800.0,31900.0,45100.0,46300.0,40800.0,30200.0,33900.0,37200.0,38400.0,36900.0,35400.0,26500.0,24600.0,31500.0,44800.0,45600.0,39900.0,29800.0,33700.0,36800.0,33200.0,36400.0,35800.0,28400.0,26900.0,34200.0,48900.0,49600.0,43800.0,33400.0,37600.0,39500.0,40800.0,38600.0,36200.0,27300.0,25200.0,31800.0,43900.0,44200.0,39100.0,29100.0,32800.0,35400.0,36700.0,34800.0,33500.0,25100.0,23400.0,29600.0,41200.0,41800.0,36900.0,27200.0,30400.0,32600.0,33400.0,31200.0,29800.0,22400.0,20800.0,26100.0,35800.0,36200.0,31900.0,23600.0,26500.0,28400.0,28900.0,27300.0,26100.0,19500.0,18200.0,22800.0,31200.0,31600.0,27800.0,20500.0,22900.0,24600.0,25200.0,23800.0,22600.0,17100.0,15900.0,19800.0,27400.0,27900.0,24300.0,18100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[21500.0,27800.0,29200.0,28100.0,26400.0,16200.0,13800.0,15600.0,29500.0,31400.0,30100.0,20200.0,20800.0,26500.0,28100.0,26800.0,25200.0,15500.0,13100.0,14900.0,28200.0,30100.0,28900.0,19400.0,19800.0,25300.0,26900.0,25600.0,24100.0,14800.0,12500.0,14200.0,27000.0,28800.0,27600.0,18500.0,18900.0,24200.0,25700.0,24400.0,23000.0,14100.0,11900.0,13500.0,25800.0,27500.0,26300.0,17600.0,18000.0,23000.0,21500.0,24800.0,22500.0,13800.0,11400.0,13100.0,24600.0,26200.0,25100.0,16800.0,17100.0,21900.0,23300.0,22100.0,20900.0,12800.0,10800.0,12300.0,23400.0,24900.0,23800.0,16000.0,16200.0,20700.0,22100.0,21000.0,19800.0,12100.0,10200.0,11600.0,22100.0,23600.0,22500.0,15100.0,14800.0,18900.0,20200.0,19100.0,18100.0,11100.0,9400.0,10700.0,20300.0,21600.0,20600.0,13800.0,13500.0,17200.0,18400.0,17400.0,16500.0,10100.0,8500.0,9700.0,18400.0,19600.0,18700.0,12500.0,12600.0,16100.0,17200.0,16200.0,15400.0,9400.0,7900.0,9100.0,17200.0,18300.0,17400.0,11700.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[50000.0,54500.0,55500.0,52500.0,50000.0,40000.0,35000.0,39000.0,50000.0,55000.0,54000.0,40000.0,46000.0,50000.0,51000.0,48000.0,46000.0,37000.0,32000.0,36000.0,46000.0,50500.0,49500.0,37000.0,42000.0,45500.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,33500.0,29500.0,33000.0,42000.0,46000.0,45500.0,33500.0,39000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,39000.0,31000.0,27500.0,30500.0,39000.0,43000.0,42000.0,31000.0,37500.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,35000.0,29000.0,26000.0,28500.0,36500.0,40000.0,39500.0,29500.0,34000.0,37000.0,37500.0,35500.0,34000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26500.0,34000.0,37500.0,36500.0,27000.0,30500.0,33000.0,33500.0,31500.0,30000.0,24000.0,21000.0,23500.0,30000.0,33000.0,32500.0,24000.0,28000.0,30500.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,22500.0,19500.0,22000.0,28000.0,31000.0,30000.0,22500.0,26000.0,28000.0,28500.0,27000.0,26000.0,21000.0,18500.0,20500.0,26000.0,28500.0,28000.0,21000.0,24000.0,26000.0,26500.0,25000.0,24000.0,19000.0,17000.0,19000.0,24000.0,26500.0,26000.0,19000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[48000.0,49500.0,48000.0,45000.0,43500.0,38500.0,37000.0,42500.0,51000.0,49500.0,46000.0,37000.0,43500.0,44000.0,43000.0,39500.0,38500.0,34000.0,32500.0,37500.0,45000.0,43500.0,40500.0,32500.0,38500.0,38500.0,37500.0,34500.0,33500.0,29500.0,28500.0,32500.0,39000.0,37500.0,35000.0,28000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29500.0,28500.0,25500.0,24500.0,28000.0,33500.0,32500.0,30500.0,24500.0,30000.0,30500.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,27000.0,25500.0,27500.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,23500.0,27500.0,27500.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,21500.0,20500.0,23000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,19500.0,22500.0,22500.0,22000.0,20000.0,19500.0,17500.0,16500.0,19000.0,22500.0,21500.0,20000.0,16000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0,17000.0,16500.0,14500.0,14000.0,16000.0,19000.0,18500.0,17000.0,14000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,15000.0,14500.0,13000.0,12500.0,14000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15000.0,12500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,12500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,11000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[44300.0,46200.0,47100.0,42400.0,39800.0,33200.0,30700.0,33900.0,48600.0,46300.0,42100.0,33800.0,43100.0,45000.0,46200.0,41300.0,38900.0,32100.0,29800.0,33200.0,47400.0,45200.0,41000.0,32900.0,42000.0,43800.0,45000.0,40200.0,37800.0,30900.0,28600.0,32100.0,46100.0,44000.0,39800.0,31700.0,41000.0,42700.0,43900.0,39100.0,36700.0,29800.0,27500.0,31000.0,44900.0,42800.0,38600.0,30600.0,40200.0,42000.0,47600.0,45100.0,40300.0,33400.0,31200.0,33800.0,43200.0,41700.0,37900.0,29800.0,38800.0,40600.0,41900.0,37400.0,35600.0,28700.0,26500.0,29900.0,42800.0,40900.0,36800.0,28600.0,37500.0,39300.0,40400.0,36200.0,34300.0,27600.0,25400.0,28800.0,41600.0,39700.0,35700.0,27500.0,36300.0,38000.0,39200.0,35000.0,33200.0,26600.0,24400.0,27700.0,40300.0,38400.0,34500.0,26500.0,35100.0,36700.0,37900.0,33900.0,32100.0,25600.0,23400.0,26700.0,39000.0,37200.0,33300.0,25500.0,34000.0,35500.0,36700.0,32800.0,31000.0,24700.0,22600.0,25800.0,37800.0,36000.0,32200.0,24600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[14420.0,13910.0,14580.0,13040.0,12455.0,10710.0,8620.0,10150.0,13830.0,15120.0,13600.0,9680.0,14100.0,13550.0,14240.0,12720.0,12110.0,10450.0,8450.0,9850.0,13300.0,14780.0,13350.0,9400.0,13620.0,13100.0,13700.0,12280.0,11740.0,10120.0,8150.0,9530.0,13050.0,14270.0,12860.0,9120.0,13050.0,12520.0,13110.0,11750.0,11230.0,9680.0,7820.0,9120.0,12510.0,13680.0,12310.0,8730.0,14450.0,13980.0,18050.0,17800.0,15600.0,11700.0,8800.0,10200.0,13900.0,15150.0,13820.0,9850.0,13150.0,12680.0,13200.0,11850.0,11320.0,9750.0,7890.0,9230.0,12610.0,13790.0,12420.0,8810.0,12120.0,11650.0,12200.0,10920.0,10430.0,8990.0,7260.0,8490.0,11620.0,12710.0,11440.0,8110.0,11310.0,10860.0,11380.0,10200.0,9730.0,8400.0,6780.0,7920.0,10850.0,11860.0,10670.0,7570.0,10500.0,10100.0,10560.0,9470.0,9030.0,7800.0,6290.0,7360.0,10080.0,11010.0,9910.0,7030.0,9920.0,9540.0,9980.0,8950.0,8540.0,7370.0,5940.0,6950.0,9520.0,10400.0,9360.0,6640.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[53400.0,51700.0,50600.0,48700.0,47000.0,42600.0,41400.0,46900.0,56800.0,54300.0,53900.0,47800.0,54600.0,52400.0,51500.0,49300.0,48100.0,43500.0,42600.0,47800.0,57900.0,55200.0,55000.0,48700.0,55700.0,53300.0,52800.0,50200.0,49000.0,44400.0,43100.0,48900.0,59300.0,56100.0,56200.0,49800.0,56200.0,53900.0,53100.0,50700.0,49600.0,44900.0,43700.0,49300.0,60100.0,56600.0,56800.0,50200.0,55300.0,55700.0,58400.0,61200.0,54300.0,50700.0,46300.0,52800.0,63100.0,60200.0,59800.0,52100.0,57300.0,54800.0,54100.0,51800.0,50100.0,45300.0,44200.0,49800.0,60400.0,57700.0,57800.0,50700.0,54700.0,52300.0,51600.0,49200.0,48000.0,43300.0,42100.0,47800.0,57900.0,55100.0,55200.0,48600.0,51200.0,48900.0,48100.0,45800.0,44600.0,40300.0,39600.0,44300.0,53900.0,51200.0,51100.0,45300.0,45700.0,43400.0,43100.0,40800.0,40000.0,35900.0,35500.0,39900.0,48300.0,45800.0,46100.0,40800.0,41600.0,39400.0,39000.0,36900.0,36000.0,32400.0,32000.0,35900.0,43800.0,41300.0,41600.0,36800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[32760.0,34020.0,34650.0,33390.0,31500.0,27090.0,24570.0,27720.0,35910.0,35910.0,33390.0,25830.0,32240.0,33480.0,34100.0,32860.0,31000.0,26660.0,24180.0,27280.0,35340.0,35340.0,32860.0,25420.0,31720.0,32940.0,33550.0,32330.0,30500.0,26230.0,23790.0,26840.0,34770.0,34770.0,32330.0,25010.0,31200.0,32400.0,33000.0,31800.0,30000.0,25800.0,23400.0,26400.0,34200.0,34200.0,31800.0,24600.0,35360.0,36720.0,39270.0,45050.0,40800.0,32164.0,27846.0,31416.0,42636.0,40698.0,36761.0,27880.0,32240.0,33480.0,34100.0,32860.0,31000.0,26660.0,24180.0,27280.0,35340.0,35340.0,32860.0,25420.0,30160.0,31320.0,31900.0,30740.0,29000.0,24940.0,22620.0,25520.0,33060.0,33060.0,30740.0,23780.0,28080.0,29160.0,29700.0,28620.0,27000.0,23220.0,21060.0,23760.0,30780.0,30780.0,28620.0,22140.0,26000.0,27000.0,27500.0,26500.0,25000.0,21500.0,19500.0,22000.0,28500.0,28500.0,26500.0,20500.0,24960.0,25920.0,26400.0,25440.0,24000.0,20640.0,18720.0,21120.0,27360.0,27360.0,25440.0,19680.0],"meta/muse-ember":[22200.0,22400.0,23400.0,21200.0,21800.0,17700.0,16000.0,19500.0,25000.0,26200.0,22600.0,18400.0,22800.0,23100.0,24000.0,21900.0,22200.0,18200.0,16500.0,20000.0,25700.0,26900.0,23300.0,18900.0,21900.0,22600.0,23000.0,21200.0,21500.0,17600.0,15900.0,19400.0,24900.0,26000.0,22500.0,18300.0,21300.0,21900.0,22300.0,20600.0,20900.0,17100.0,15500.0,18900.0,24200.0,25300.0,21900.0,17800.0,22500.0,22900.0,27800.0,24400.0,23500.0,18000.0,16200.0,19600.0,25400.0,26500.0,23000.0,18600.0,21800.0,22000.0,22900.0,20900.0,21200.0,17400.0,15700.0,19100.0,24500.0,25700.0,22200.0,18100.0,20700.0,21100.0,22400.0,19900.0,20200.0,16600.0,14900.0,18200.0,23400.0,24500.0,21200.0,17200.0,19300.0,19500.0,20200.0,18500.0,18800.0,15400.0,13900.0,16900.0,21800.0,22700.0,19700.0,16000.0,18000.0,18400.0,18800.0,17300.0,17600.0,14400.0,13000.0,15800.0,20400.0,21300.0,18400.0,15000.0,17000.0,17300.0,17700.0,16300.0,16600.0,13600.0,12300.0,14900.0,19200.0,20100.0,17300.0,14100.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,100000.0,80000.0,70000.0,85000.0,125000.0,115000.0,105000.0,80000.0,111300.0,116600.0,121900.0,116600.0,106000.0,84800.0,74200.0,94600.0,132500.0,121900.0,111300.0,84800.0,117600.0,123200.0,128800.0,123200.0,112000.0,89600.0,78400.0,95200.0,140000.0,128800.0,117600.0,89600.0,123900.0,129800.0,135700.0,129800.0,118000.0,94400.0,82600.0,100300.0,147500.0,135700.0,123900.0,102000.0,144700.0,143000.0,201800.0,236000.0,182000.0,112300.0,94600.0,114900.0,172300.0,155500.0,136500.0,108200.0,161700.0,169400.0,177100.0,166300.0,147000.0,115400.0,98000.0,119000.0,175000.0,161000.0,147000.0,112000.0,154200.0,149600.0,156400.0,149600.0,136000.0,108800.0,95200.0,115600.0,170000.0,156400.0,142800.0,108800.0,132300.0,146900.0,152100.0,138600.0,126000.0,100800.0,88200.0,107100.0,157500.0,144900.0,132300.0,100800.0,121800.0,127600.0,133400.0,127600.0,116000.0,92800.0,81200.0,98600.0,145000.0,133400.0,121800.0,92800.0,112500.0,116700.0,120800.0,114400.0,103000.0,81600.0,70700.0,85000.0,123700.0,112600.0,101700.0,76700.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[78400.0,80100.0,84900.0,87600.0,77200.0,64700.0,62300.0,79600.0,96800.0,104300.0,92400.0,71800.0,79000.0,80800.0,85600.0,88400.0,77800.0,65000.0,62700.0,80000.0,97200.0,105000.0,92800.0,72000.0,77700.0,79400.0,84300.0,87000.0,76500.0,64200.0,61900.0,79100.0,96000.0,103800.0,91700.0,71200.0,76200.0,78000.0,82800.0,85600.0,75300.0,63100.0,60800.0,77800.0,94700.0,102400.0,90600.0,70300.0,72600.0,73900.0,84800.0,86100.0,74400.0,62000.0,59700.0,75800.0,92600.0,99800.0,88100.0,68900.0,70900.0,74800.0,77600.0,80200.0,70700.0,58900.0,56800.0,72900.0,89300.0,96500.0,85400.0,66600.0,68700.0,70400.0,75900.0,78400.0,69000.0,57500.0,55400.0,71200.0,87400.0,94300.0,83500.0,64900.0,66800.0,68300.0,73700.0,76100.0,67000.0,55800.0,53900.0,69400.0,85000.0,91800.0,81200.0,63100.0,65700.0,67100.0,72400.0,74900.0,66000.0,54800.0,52900.0,68300.0,83900.0,90600.0,80100.0,62200.0,64600.0,66000.0,71300.0,73800.0,64900.0,54000.0,52100.0,67400.0,83000.0,89600.0,79200.0,61500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,40000.0,28000.0,24000.0,30000.0,41000.0,45000.0,45000.0,32000.0,40000.0,44000.0,47000.0,44000.0,41000.0,28000.0,25000.0,31000.0,42000.0,46000.0,46000.0,33000.0,41000.0,45000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,29000.0,25000.0,32000.0,43000.0,47000.0,46000.0,33000.0,41000.0,45000.0,48000.0,45000.0,41000.0,28000.0,25000.0,32000.0,43000.0,47000.0,46000.0,33000.0,41000.0,44000.0,46000.0,47000.0,42000.0,30000.0,25000.0,31000.0,44000.0,48000.0,47000.0,34000.0,43000.0,46000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,29000.0,24000.0,31000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,32000.0,40000.0,43000.0,46000.0,43000.0,40000.0,27000.0,23000.0,30000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,31000.0,38000.0,41000.0,44000.0,41000.0,38000.0,26000.0,22000.0,28000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,29000.0,35000.0,38000.0,41000.0,38000.0,35000.0,24000.0,20000.0,26000.0,35000.0,38000.0,37000.0,27000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,35000.0,32000.0,22000.0,19000.0,24000.0,32000.0,35000.0,34000.0,25000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[25100.0,24800.0,27200.0,28000.0,28500.0,27600.0,24100.0,29500.0,30100.0,27300.0,25600.0,24900.0,29700.0,30400.0,32300.0,33100.0,34000.0,32600.0,28500.0,34900.0,35700.0,32200.0,30900.0,29500.0,35100.0,36000.0,38500.0,39800.0,40900.0,39300.0,34100.0,41700.0,42600.0,38100.0,36800.0,35100.0,41100.0,41800.0,44500.0,46000.0,47200.0,45400.0,39300.0,48400.0,49600.0,44300.0,42700.0,40500.0,53700.0,54800.0,61300.0,64800.0,62200.0,59700.0,52100.0,63800.0,65500.0,58300.0,55900.0,53400.0,57800.0,59000.0,63400.0,66100.0,65200.0,62900.0,55500.0,67200.0,69100.0,61500.0,58800.0,57100.0,56700.0,57800.0,61600.0,63500.0,64300.0,61900.0,54300.0,65700.0,67300.0,60300.0,57900.0,56100.0,52000.0,53100.0,56400.0,58100.0,59000.0,56700.0,49800.0,60400.0,62100.0,55200.0,52900.0,51000.0,49200.0,50200.0,53100.0,54800.0,55800.0,53400.0,47000.0,57000.0,58500.0,52300.0,50000.0,48200.0,47400.0,48200.0,50600.0,52200.0,53400.0,51100.0,45100.0,54600.0,55900.0,49800.0,47600.0,46000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[10800.0,10000.0,11000.0,10600.0,10900.0,10100.0,9800.0,10500.0,11700.0,11200.0,10100.0,9000.0,10300.0,9600.0,10400.0,10000.0,10200.0,9500.0,9200.0,9900.0,11000.0,10500.0,9500.0,8500.0,9700.0,9000.0,9800.0,9400.0,9600.0,9000.0,8700.0,9300.0,10300.0,9800.0,8900.0,8000.0,8900.0,8300.0,9000.0,8600.0,8800.0,8200.0,8000.0,8500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8200.0,7400.0,8800.0,8500.0,9000.0,9200.0,9400.0,8800.0,8600.0,9300.0,10400.0,9800.0,8900.0,8200.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8300.0,7900.0,7700.0,8200.0,9100.0,8600.0,7800.0,7100.0,7800.0,7300.0,7800.0,7500.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,7500.0,8300.0,7900.0,7200.0,6500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7300.0,6900.0,6700.0,7200.0,8000.0,7600.0,6900.0,6300.0,7200.0,6700.0,7200.0,6900.0,7000.0,6600.0,6400.0,6900.0,7700.0,7300.0,6600.0,6000.0,6900.0,6400.0,6900.0,6600.0,6700.0,6300.0,6100.0,6600.0,7400.0,7000.0,6300.0,5700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[5250.0,5400.0,5500.0,5350.0,5250.0,4600.0,4250.0,4600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,4400.0,5150.0,5290.0,5390.0,5240.0,5150.0,4510.0,4170.0,4510.0,5390.0,5490.0,5290.0,4310.0,4940.0,5080.0,5170.0,5030.0,4940.0,4320.0,4000.0,4320.0,5170.0,5260.0,5080.0,4140.0,4730.0,4860.0,4950.0,4820.0,4730.0,4140.0,3830.0,4140.0,4950.0,5040.0,4860.0,3960.0,4730.0,4860.0,6200.0,6270.0,5680.0,4550.0,4020.0,4140.0,4950.0,5040.0,4860.0,3960.0,4410.0,4540.0,4620.0,4490.0,4410.0,3860.0,3570.0,3860.0,4620.0,4700.0,4540.0,3700.0,4100.0,4210.0,4290.0,4170.0,4100.0,3590.0,3320.0,3590.0,4290.0,4370.0,4210.0,3430.0,3780.0,3890.0,3960.0,3850.0,3780.0,3310.0,3060.0,3310.0,3960.0,4030.0,3890.0,3170.0,3360.0,3460.0,3520.0,3420.0,3360.0,2940.0,2720.0,2940.0,3520.0,3580.0,3460.0,2820.0,2940.0,3020.0,3080.0,3000.0,2940.0,2580.0,2380.0,2580.0,3080.0,3140.0,3020.0,2460.0]}},{"title":"Hainish Cycle","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Hainish Cycle\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5451,4641,4506,4970,4704,4891,4509,9671,4340,11312,4859,4813,5216,5028,5023,4825,4701,4352,4865,5006,5360,5000,4992,5127,21283,10171,8630,7324,7313,6280,6727,6775,5863,5804,5706,6480,6993,5925,7457,6850,7373,6428,7380,8039,6727,8100,6886,7418,7819,7081,7310,8169,8895,8063,8356,8446,8468,7827,8072,9258,9270,7884,9158,8848,9863,8472,8907,8967,7883,9711,8817,9171,10547,8729,9059,8553,8887,8507,10565,9998,8403,8392,8396,8747,10605,10592,10573,9615,9651,9384,10802,10809,10046,9660,10378,10321,12469,10414,12154,10516,20732,11282,12149,11776,10473,11323,12239,11803,13280,10827,12021,11497,12576,16905,15014,15464,12328,12013,11956,15189],"flat_reference_value":17024.879494033474,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5600.0,5900.0,5200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5700.0,5900.0,6600.0,6200.0,5800.0,6200.0,34000.0,16000.0,10500.0,8900.0,8000.0,7400.0,7800.0,7600.0,7100.0,7600.0,7100.0,7300.0,7900.0,7000.0,7600.0,7100.0,7300.0,6900.0,7400.0,7600.0,7100.0,7800.0,7000.0,7400.0,7900.0,7200.0,8200.0,8700.0,8300.0,7800.0,8200.0,8100.0,7500.0,8000.0,7400.0,7700.0,8200.0,7200.0,7800.0,7200.0,7400.0,6900.0,7400.0,7600.0,7000.0,7500.0,6900.0,7200.0,7700.0,6800.0,7300.0,6800.0,7000.0,6600.0,7100.0,7300.0,6700.0,7200.0,6600.0,6900.0,7400.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6700.0,6300.0,6900.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6400.0,6700.0,7200.0,6400.0,6800.0,6500.0,7300.0,6600.0,7000.0,6900.0,6400.0,6800.0,6300.0,6500.0,7000.0,6100.0,6500.0,6200.0,6400.0,6000.0,6500.0,6600.0,6100.0,6500.0,6000.0,6300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[9400.0,8600.0,8900.0,8500.0,8300.0,8100.0,8700.0,8800.0,8600.0,9100.0,9300.0,9000.0,9800.0,8900.0,9200.0,8800.0,8600.0,8400.0,9000.0,9300.0,11800.0,10900.0,9800.0,9600.0,32500.0,16800.0,12900.0,11400.0,10700.0,10200.0,10800.0,10900.0,10400.0,10800.0,10600.0,10300.0,11600.0,10200.0,10700.0,10100.0,9800.0,9500.0,10100.0,12400.0,10600.0,10800.0,10500.0,10200.0,11400.0,10300.0,10900.0,12200.0,12600.0,11900.0,12300.0,12500.0,11800.0,12100.0,11900.0,11700.0,13100.0,11600.0,11800.0,11200.0,11000.0,10700.0,11300.0,11500.0,11400.0,12600.0,12100.0,11500.0,12400.0,10900.0,11100.0,10600.0,10400.0,10100.0,10800.0,11000.0,10500.0,10900.0,10700.0,11200.0,11900.0,10400.0,10800.0,10200.0,9900.0,9600.0,10300.0,10500.0,9900.0,10300.0,10100.0,9800.0,10900.0,9700.0,10600.0,9800.0,9400.0,9100.0,9700.0,9900.0,9300.0,9600.0,9400.0,9200.0,10100.0,8900.0,9300.0,8800.0,8600.0,8400.0,8900.0,9100.0,8600.0,8900.0,8700.0,8500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[11400.0,10900.0,11300.0,10800.0,10500.0,9900.0,10700.0,11100.0,11600.0,12400.0,12100.0,12600.0,13100.0,11800.0,12500.0,11700.0,11200.0,10900.0,11500.0,12300.0,14600.0,15900.0,15100.0,14200.0,56800.0,28500.0,19400.0,16800.0,15600.0,14900.0,15400.0,15800.0,16100.0,17300.0,16500.0,16200.0,17100.0,15300.0,15900.0,14600.0,14200.0,13800.0,14500.0,15000.0,15600.0,16400.0,15800.0,15500.0,16300.0,14800.0,17200.0,20400.0,19600.0,17800.0,17200.0,16900.0,16500.0,16800.0,16100.0,16700.0,17000.0,15100.0,15600.0,14800.0,14100.0,13600.0,14200.0,14600.0,15200.0,15700.0,15400.0,15200.0,16200.0,14400.0,14900.0,14200.0,13700.0,13200.0,13900.0,14300.0,14700.0,15400.0,14800.0,14600.0,15500.0,13800.0,14400.0,13600.0,13100.0,12700.0,13300.0,13800.0,14100.0,14600.0,14200.0,14000.0,14900.0,13300.0,13700.0,12900.0,12500.0,12000.0,12600.0,13100.0,13400.0,13900.0,13500.0,13400.0,14200.0,12700.0,13100.0,12400.0,12000.0,11600.0,12100.0,12500.0,12900.0,13400.0,13000.0,12800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[14000.0,13200.0,13500.0,12800.0,12300.0,11500.0,11800.0,11600.0,11900.0,12600.0,12800.0,12400.0,13300.0,12600.0,12900.0,12300.0,11800.0,11000.0,11200.0,11000.0,11300.0,12100.0,12200.0,11700.0,48000.0,24000.0,16500.0,14500.0,13300.0,12200.0,12300.0,12000.0,12100.0,12900.0,12600.0,12000.0,13000.0,12200.0,12300.0,11700.0,11200.0,10500.0,10700.0,10500.0,10600.0,11300.0,11200.0,10800.0,11800.0,11200.0,12400.0,13600.0,12800.0,11400.0,11300.0,10900.0,10600.0,11000.0,10800.0,10500.0,11200.0,10500.0,10600.0,10000.0,9600.0,9100.0,9200.0,9100.0,9200.0,9900.0,9700.0,9400.0,10000.0,9400.0,9500.0,9100.0,8800.0,8300.0,8400.0,8300.0,8400.0,9000.0,8900.0,8600.0,9200.0,8600.0,8800.0,8400.0,8100.0,7700.0,7800.0,7700.0,7800.0,8300.0,8200.0,7900.0,8500.0,8000.0,8100.0,7800.0,7500.0,7100.0,7200.0,7100.0,7300.0,7800.0,7700.0,7400.0,7900.0,7400.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6600.0,6700.0,6600.0,6800.0,7200.0,7100.0,6900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[8200.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,7500.0,7300.0,7800.0,7900.0,7400.0,7600.0,7800.0,8300.0,8900.0,8200.0,8500.0,8100.0,8200.0,8000.0,8400.0,8500.0,8100.0,8400.0,8500.0,9000.0,27000.0,17000.0,12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10200.0,10400.0,10500.0,9800.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,9800.0,10200.0,9800.0,9900.0,9700.0,10200.0,10500.0,9800.0,9900.0,9900.0,10400.0,11000.0,10300.0,11500.0,12800.0,12800.0,11800.0,11800.0,11600.0,10800.0,10800.0,10900.0,11500.0,12000.0,10800.0,11200.0,10600.0,10500.0,10200.0,10500.0,10500.0,9900.0,10200.0,10200.0,10600.0,11000.0,9900.0,10300.0,9800.0,9800.0,9500.0,9900.0,9900.0,9300.0,9500.0,9500.0,9900.0,10400.0,9400.0,9800.0,9400.0,9500.0,9200.0,9500.0,9500.0,8900.0,9100.0,9100.0,9500.0,10000.0,9100.0,9300.0,8900.0,9000.0,8800.0,9100.0,9100.0,8600.0,8800.0,8900.0,9300.0,9600.0,8700.0,9000.0,8700.0,8800.0,8500.0,8700.0,8700.0,8200.0,8300.0,8300.0,8600.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[14200.0,12600.0,13400.0,12100.0,11800.0,10800.0,10400.0,11000.0,12900.0,13700.0,12800.0,11500.0,12800.0,11500.0,12300.0,11200.0,10800.0,9900.0,9600.0,10200.0,15800.0,14200.0,12100.0,11000.0,82000.0,26000.0,18000.0,14300.0,13200.0,12100.0,11700.0,12300.0,14100.0,13900.0,13300.0,12400.0,13500.0,12500.0,14800.0,13100.0,12600.0,14200.0,12900.0,12200.0,13400.0,13900.0,12800.0,11700.0,13200.0,12300.0,14100.0,13600.0,12800.0,11900.0,11500.0,11900.0,13300.0,13700.0,12500.0,11400.0,12600.0,11500.0,12400.0,11700.0,11100.0,10400.0,10100.0,10500.0,11800.0,12400.0,11500.0,10600.0,11400.0,10400.0,11200.0,10600.0,10100.0,9500.0,9200.0,9500.0,10800.0,11300.0,10400.0,9700.0,10300.0,9500.0,10100.0,9600.0,9300.0,8700.0,8400.0,8700.0,9900.0,10300.0,9500.0,8900.0,9400.0,8700.0,9200.0,9800.0,11400.0,9800.0,9100.0,8900.0,10100.0,10500.0,9600.0,8800.0,9000.0,8300.0,8800.0,8400.0,8100.0,7600.0,7300.0,7600.0,8600.0,9400.0,8300.0,7800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3150.0,2850.0,3220.0,2980.0,3105.0,2650.0,2420.0,2590.0,3050.0,3280.0,3120.0,2760.0,3300.0,2950.0,3350.0,3100.0,3250.0,2750.0,2550.0,2700.0,3200.0,3400.0,3250.0,2900.0,28500.0,11500.0,6800.0,5200.0,4600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,4100.0,4300.0,4000.0,3600.0,3900.0,3500.0,3800.0,3650.0,3750.0,3100.0,2950.0,3150.0,3700.0,3950.0,3750.0,3300.0,3800.0,3600.0,4400.0,4800.0,4300.0,3600.0,3350.0,3500.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,3700.0,4000.0,3650.0,3950.0,3750.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3750.0,3900.0,3700.0,3350.0,3700.0,3350.0,3650.0,3450.0,3550.0,3000.0,2850.0,3000.0,3500.0,3650.0,3500.0,3150.0,3500.0,3150.0,3450.0,3300.0,3400.0,2900.0,2750.0,2900.0,3350.0,3500.0,3350.0,3000.0,3350.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,2800.0,2650.0,2800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3250.0,2950.0,3250.0,2950.0,3200.0,3100.0,3150.0,2700.0,2550.0,2700.0,3100.0,3300.0,3150.0,2850.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3800.0,3450.0,3550.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3050.0,3350.0,3550.0,3450.0,3500.0,4250.0,3900.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3450.0,3300.0,3400.0,3750.0,3950.0,3850.0,3900.0,20500.0,9800.0,7200.0,6300.0,5800.0,5400.0,5100.0,5200.0,5700.0,5900.0,5700.0,5750.0,5900.0,5200.0,5900.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,5300.0,5800.0,5200.0,6900.0,7200.0,6300.0,5600.0,5200.0,5100.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,6100.0,5400.0,5600.0,5300.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,5300.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,6200.0,5500.0,5700.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,5400.0,5700.0,5600.0,6800.0,7000.0,5700.0,5800.0,5500.0,5300.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,5500.0,5800.0,5700.0,5800.0,6500.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5600.0,5900.0,5800.0,5900.0,6600.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,5550.0,5300.0,5100.0,5200.0,5700.0,6000.0,5900.0,6000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1450.0,1400.0,1380.0,1320.0,1270.0,1170.0,1120.0,1140.0,1300.0,1430.0,1410.0,1200.0,1600.0,1550.0,1530.0,1470.0,1420.0,1300.0,1250.0,1270.0,1450.0,1600.0,1570.0,1340.0,16000.0,6500.0,4000.0,3000.0,2500.0,2100.0,1900.0,1950.0,2200.0,2500.0,2400.0,2000.0,2300.0,2150.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1750.0,1650.0,1680.0,1900.0,2100.0,2050.0,1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,1850.0,1750.0,1600.0,1500.0,1550.0,1750.0,1950.0,1900.0,1650.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,1850.0,1700.0,1600.0,1650.0,1850.0,2050.0,2000.0,1750.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1800.0,1650.0,1550.0,1600.0,1800.0,2000.0,1950.0,1700.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,1900.0,1750.0,1650.0,1700.0,1900.0,2100.0,2050.0,1800.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,2050.0,2300.0,2200.0,1950.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,2150.0,2400.0,2350.0,2100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2120.0,2045.0,2130.0,1980.0,2075.0,2260.0,1940.0,2110.0,2780.0,2620.0,2380.0,1990.0,2360.0,2270.0,2320.0,2205.0,2160.0,2310.0,2055.0,2190.0,2775.0,2680.0,2485.0,2105.0,17500.0,9200.0,5100.0,3600.0,3150.0,3350.0,2900.0,3050.0,3700.0,3600.0,3350.0,2750.0,4100.0,3150.0,3250.0,3100.0,3050.0,3350.0,2950.0,3100.0,3850.0,4350.0,4100.0,2850.0,3550.0,3400.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,3900.0,3400.0,3550.0,4300.0,4100.0,3800.0,3200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3850.0,3650.0,3600.0,4100.0,3500.0,3700.0,4500.0,4380.0,4050.0,3450.0,4350.0,3950.0,4100.0,3900.0,3850.0,4350.0,3700.0,3900.0,4750.0,4600.0,4250.0,3600.0,4550.0,4150.0,4300.0,4050.0,4000.0,4550.0,3900.0,4100.0,5000.0,4850.0,4500.0,3800.0,4750.0,4350.0,4500.0,4250.0,4600.0,5050.0,4100.0,4350.0,5250.0,5100.0,4750.0,4000.0,5100.0,4600.0,4750.0,4500.0,4450.0,5300.0,4350.0,4600.0,5550.0,5400.0,5000.0,4250.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[342.0,318.0,356.0,305.0,291.0,264.0,231.0,226.0,278.0,318.0,312.0,252.0,286.0,268.0,296.0,257.0,246.0,224.0,198.0,193.0,240.0,272.0,267.0,219.0,258.0,241.0,268.0,233.0,224.0,205.0,183.0,178.0,431.0,256.0,251.0,205.0,244.0,228.0,253.0,220.0,211.0,193.0,172.0,168.0,208.0,235.0,231.0,190.0,232.0,219.0,289.0,301.0,262.0,226.0,198.0,194.0,232.0,262.0,258.0,212.0,226.0,213.0,384.0,224.0,205.0,188.0,168.0,164.0,202.0,229.0,225.0,186.0,220.0,207.0,230.0,200.0,193.0,176.0,157.0,153.0,190.0,216.0,212.0,175.0,212.0,199.0,221.0,192.0,185.0,169.0,151.0,147.0,183.0,208.0,204.0,168.0,206.0,194.0,215.0,187.0,181.0,165.0,298.0,158.0,179.0,203.0,199.0,164.0,200.0,188.0,209.0,182.0,176.0,161.0,143.0,140.0,174.0,198.0,194.0,160.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1830.0,1970.0,2140.0,2200.0,2070.0,1930.0,1800.0,1830.0,2020.0,2190.0,2240.0,2000.0,1800.0,1940.0,2110.0,2170.0,2030.0,1900.0,1770.0,1800.0,1990.0,2160.0,2200.0,1960.0,1900.0,2920.0,2460.0,2200.0,2070.0,1930.0,1800.0,1840.0,2030.0,2200.0,2250.0,2010.0,1850.0,1990.0,2140.0,2210.0,2080.0,1950.0,1820.0,1850.0,2040.0,2210.0,2450.0,2110.0,1910.0,2050.0,2250.0,2250.0,2120.0,1980.0,1840.0,1880.0,2070.0,2240.0,2290.0,2050.0,1910.0,2070.0,2250.0,2310.0,2180.0,2040.0,1900.0,1940.0,2140.0,2320.0,2510.0,2200.0,1980.0,2130.0,2470.0,2260.0,2120.0,1980.0,1840.0,1880.0,2080.0,2260.0,2300.0,2060.0,1870.0,2020.0,2160.0,2220.0,2090.0,1960.0,1820.0,1860.0,2050.0,2220.0,2260.0,2020.0,1850.0,1990.0,2120.0,2180.0,2050.0,1920.0,1780.0,1820.0,2010.0,2180.0,2230.0,3650.0,2230.0,2390.0,2490.0,2550.0,2400.0,2240.0,2080.0,2130.0,2350.0,2550.0,2600.0,2310.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,3600.0,2600.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1850.0,1950.0,2000.0,2000.0,1950.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1850.0,1850.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2050.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2150.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2150.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2050.0,2050.0,2200.0,2250.0,2250.0,2150.0,2200.0,2200.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2250.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[729.0,681.0,738.0,706.0,762.0,793.0,846.0,815.0,778.0,734.0,690.0,742.0,955.0,887.0,926.0,931.0,973.0,1012.0,1084.0,996.0,1033.0,941.0,892.0,947.0,20374.0,6813.0,2634.0,2016.0,1807.0,1682.0,1729.0,1846.0,1705.0,1563.0,1482.0,1605.0,1679.0,1528.0,1592.0,1647.0,1721.0,1804.0,1892.0,1736.0,1691.0,1608.0,1517.0,1594.0,2071.0,1936.0,3814.0,3372.0,2821.0,2438.0,2354.0,2509.0,2413.0,2152.0,2028.0,2207.0,2459.0,2338.0,2441.0,2568.0,2543.0,2712.0,2867.0,2811.0,2734.0,2513.0,2352.0,2557.0,2784.0,2641.0,2732.0,2834.0,2819.0,2956.0,3158.0,3069.0,2931.0,2812.0,2583.0,2776.0,3102.0,2978.0,3057.0,3156.0,3084.0,3299.0,3512.0,3428.0,3306.0,3127.0,2908.0,3138.0,3426.0,3302.0,3361.0,7394.0,5218.0,4378.0,4116.0,3905.0,3713.0,3498.0,3271.0,3534.0,3617.0,3458.0,3562.0,3695.0,3603.0,3834.0,4052.0,3926.0,3788.0,3567.0,3351.0,3634.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[213.0,205.0,224.0,218.0,230.0,241.0,256.0,248.0,237.0,244.0,229.0,220.0,227.0,216.0,238.0,251.0,259.0,267.0,271.0,263.0,255.0,278.0,249.0,240.0,3120.0,1020.0,530.0,410.0,365.0,342.0,330.0,326.0,319.0,345.0,310.0,295.0,276.0,260.0,285.0,298.0,306.0,320.0,317.0,301.0,294.0,311.0,282.0,270.0,289.0,277.0,301.0,315.0,330.0,348.0,355.0,339.0,323.0,342.0,310.0,298.0,312.0,300.0,327.0,345.0,359.0,371.0,365.0,350.0,341.0,366.0,332.0,318.0,325.0,310.0,342.0,350.0,364.0,381.0,372.0,356.0,349.0,373.0,338.0,322.0,333.0,318.0,347.0,365.0,379.0,390.0,382.0,367.0,359.0,391.0,352.0,338.0,350.0,335.0,366.0,381.0,397.0,405.0,398.0,383.0,374.0,410.0,369.0,351.0,358.0,343.0,371.0,388.0,402.0,417.0,405.0,391.0,380.0,421.0,379.0,360.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[950.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,780.0,820.0,950.0,1000.0,980.0,900.0,880.0,860.0,950.0,920.0,880.0,820.0,760.0,800.0,900.0,950.0,930.0,850.0,4200.0,2100.0,1400.0,1150.0,1050.0,950.0,880.0,900.0,980.0,1000.0,950.0,850.0,900.0,880.0,980.0,950.0,880.0,820.0,780.0,800.0,900.0,940.0,920.0,840.0,1000.0,980.0,1150.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,930.0,1000.0,1020.0,980.0,900.0,880.0,850.0,920.0,900.0,840.0,790.0,740.0,760.0,860.0,880.0,860.0,800.0,800.0,780.0,850.0,820.0,770.0,720.0,680.0,700.0,790.0,810.0,780.0,730.0,740.0,720.0,790.0,760.0,720.0,680.0,640.0,660.0,740.0,760.0,730.0,690.0,640.0,620.0,680.0,650.0,620.0,580.0,550.0,570.0,640.0,650.0,620.0,580.0,560.0,540.0,590.0,560.0,530.0,500.0,470.0,480.0,540.0,550.0,520.0,490.0]}},{"title":"Plain","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Plain\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[21323,17339,13338,11698,14034,14370,15646,17691,21689,20278,18820,14876,20563,18569,16512,12928,15463,18770,22375,19859,23550,26265,22126,16504,24611,20204,17543,14248,17055,19732,23732,22462,21526,22247,17943,18544,22877,17979,14979,12692,15040,19307,20696,19451,20613,20075,17910,13860,19348,16040,13647,16851,16137,13762,14224,14970,22477,22136,19147,17680,18945,16345,17647,11381,11160,12014,13480,12521,14625,13659,11860,11276,12141,10608,10551,8461,9552,10125,10548,11941,13604,11891,10959,9120,10795,9900,9712,8188,10800,10775,11671,13331,13128,12147,9781,8975,12308,11521,10249,10484,10146,9522,10014,11644,12081,18496,12372,9290,9950,8226,9626,7265,7829,7138,6742,7491,7493,7284,6374,5810],"flat_reference_value":16980.81757939916,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[23500.0,24600.0,26100.0,25500.0,24100.0,18800.0,15800.0,18300.0,25200.0,27800.0,26400.0,21500.0,23900.0,25000.0,26700.0,25300.0,24700.0,19000.0,16100.0,18700.0,25700.0,28400.0,27000.0,21900.0,24400.0,25200.0,27000.0,25800.0,24900.0,19300.0,16400.0,19100.0,26000.0,28700.0,27300.0,22100.0,24100.0,24900.0,26600.0,25700.0,24500.0,19000.0,16200.0,18900.0,25800.0,28300.0,26800.0,21600.0,23700.0,24500.0,25400.0,23900.0,23000.0,18100.0,15300.0,18100.0,25000.0,27500.0,26400.0,21100.0,23200.0,24200.0,26000.0,24900.0,23700.0,18300.0,15500.0,18100.0,24900.0,27400.0,25800.0,20900.0,22800.0,23700.0,25500.0,24400.0,23200.0,17900.0,15100.0,17600.0,24300.0,26800.0,25200.0,20400.0,22300.0,23100.0,24900.0,23800.0,22600.0,17400.0,14800.0,17200.0,23700.0,26000.0,24500.0,19800.0,21700.0,22500.0,24100.0,23100.0,21900.0,16900.0,14300.0,16700.0,22900.0,25100.0,23700.0,19200.0,21000.0,21700.0,23300.0,22300.0,21100.0,16200.0,13700.0,16000.0,22000.0,24100.0,22700.0,18300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[28400.0,29600.0,30800.0,29900.0,28200.0,22600.0,20500.0,23800.0,32900.0,33700.0,30400.0,24800.0,27900.0,28800.0,30200.0,29100.0,27600.0,22100.0,20100.0,23400.0,32100.0,33100.0,29800.0,24100.0,26900.0,27800.0,29100.0,28400.0,26700.0,21300.0,19600.0,22700.0,31200.0,32000.0,28600.0,23300.0,26300.0,27200.0,28500.0,27700.0,26100.0,20900.0,19300.0,22400.0,30800.0,31500.0,28100.0,22900.0,26500.0,27400.0,25800.0,31600.0,30900.0,24700.0,22300.0,26400.0,36800.0,37900.0,33500.0,27200.0,30400.0,31500.0,32200.0,30600.0,28400.0,22800.0,20700.0,24100.0,32400.0,33000.0,29200.0,23800.0,26100.0,26800.0,27900.0,26700.0,25100.0,20100.0,18400.0,21200.0,28900.0,29500.0,26200.0,21400.0,23400.0,24100.0,25000.0,23900.0,22300.0,17900.0,16500.0,18900.0,25600.0,26200.0,23100.0,18800.0,20600.0,21300.0,22000.0,21100.0,19700.0,15800.0,14600.0,16600.0,22500.0,23100.0,20300.0,16500.0,18200.0,18800.0,19500.0,18700.0,17400.0,14100.0,13100.0,14900.0,20100.0,20700.0,18200.0,14900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[31200.0,35400.0,37100.0,35800.0,33100.0,21800.0,19400.0,23200.0,34900.0,38200.0,37600.0,26100.0,30800.0,34500.0,36200.0,34100.0,31900.0,20900.0,18700.0,22400.0,33600.0,36900.0,35800.0,24900.0,29600.0,33100.0,34700.0,32800.0,30400.0,19800.0,17800.0,21300.0,32100.0,35200.0,34000.0,23600.0,28100.0,31400.0,33200.0,31100.0,28900.0,18800.0,16900.0,20200.0,30500.0,33600.0,32400.0,22400.0,27200.0,30200.0,26800.0,25100.0,26900.0,17500.0,15800.0,18900.0,28400.0,31500.0,30300.0,21100.0,25600.0,28800.0,30500.0,28700.0,26400.0,17100.0,15200.0,18300.0,27800.0,30600.0,29400.0,20300.0,24700.0,27600.0,29200.0,27400.0,25100.0,16300.0,14500.0,17400.0,26500.0,29100.0,28000.0,19400.0,23500.0,26100.0,27700.0,25900.0,23800.0,15400.0,13800.0,16500.0,25100.0,27600.0,26400.0,18300.0,22100.0,24800.0,26200.0,24500.0,22400.0,14500.0,12900.0,15500.0,23600.0,25900.0,24800.0,17200.0,20800.0,23200.0,24600.0,23000.0,21100.0,13700.0,12100.0,14600.0,22200.0,24400.0,23300.0,16200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[32000.0,34000.0,35500.0,33500.0,32000.0,25500.0,22000.0,25000.0,31500.0,35000.0,35000.0,25500.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31500.0,30000.0,24000.0,21000.0,23500.0,29500.0,33000.0,33000.0,24000.0,28000.0,29500.0,31000.0,29500.0,28000.0,22500.0,19500.0,22000.0,27500.0,30500.0,30500.0,22500.0,26000.0,27500.0,28500.0,27500.0,26000.0,21000.0,18000.0,20500.0,25500.0,28500.0,28500.0,21000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,20500.0,17500.0,19500.0,24500.0,27000.0,27000.0,20000.0,23500.0,24500.0,25500.0,24000.0,23000.0,18500.0,16000.0,18000.0,22500.0,25000.0,25000.0,18500.0,20500.0,21500.0,22500.0,21000.0,20000.0,16000.0,14000.0,16000.0,19500.0,21500.0,21500.0,16000.0,18500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,14500.0,12500.0,14500.0,17500.0,19500.0,19500.0,14500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16000.0,13000.0,11000.0,12500.0,15500.0,17000.0,17000.0,12500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,11000.0,9800.0,11000.0,13500.0,15000.0,15000.0,11000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[31000.0,31500.0,30500.0,29500.0,28500.0,23500.0,22000.0,25500.0,32500.0,33000.0,31500.0,25500.0,29500.0,29000.0,28500.0,26500.0,26500.0,21500.0,20500.0,23500.0,29500.0,30000.0,28500.0,23000.0,26500.0,25500.0,25000.0,24000.0,23500.0,19000.0,18500.0,21000.0,26000.0,26500.0,25000.0,20500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,21500.0,21500.0,17500.0,17000.0,19500.0,24000.0,24000.0,22500.0,18500.0,22000.0,21500.0,21500.0,24000.0,24500.0,20500.0,19500.0,20500.0,24000.0,24000.0,22500.0,19000.0,21500.0,20500.0,20000.0,18500.0,18500.0,16000.0,15500.0,16500.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,15000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,13000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,12000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,11000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,10500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[31.0,34.0,33.0,36.0,29.0,24.0,21.0,25.0,34.0,38.0,35.0,23.0,30.0,35.0,37.0,35.0,32.0,25.0,22.0,24.0,35.0,40.0,38.0,22.0,34.0,37.0,39.0,38.0,33.0,27.0,23.0,27.0,37.0,42.0,39.0,25.0,35.0,38.0,40.0,39.0,34.0,27.0,25.0,26.0,38.0,43.0,41.0,25.0,41.0,45.0,56.0,62.0,49.0,37.0,33.0,37.0,45.0,51.0,47.0,31.0,38.0,41.0,42.0,40.0,37.0,29.0,26.0,28.0,41.0,46.0,42.0,28.0,33.0,36.0,38.0,36.0,33.0,26.0,23.0,25.0,36.0,41.0,37.0,24.0,31.0,34.0,35.0,33.0,30.0,25.0,22.0,23.0,34.0,38.0,35.0,23.0,30.0,33.0,34.0,32.0,29.0,24.0,21.0,24.0,33.0,37.0,34.0,22.0,29.0,32.0,33.0,31.0,28.0,23.0,20.0,23.0,32.0,36.0,33.0,22.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[12084.0,11532.0,12345.0,11210.0,10956.0,8312.0,7289.0,8421.0,11033.0,12177.0,11428.0,9123.0,11492.0,10615.0,11830.0,10642.0,10488.0,7915.0,6942.0,8010.0,10455.0,11560.0,10912.0,8645.0,10895.0,10091.0,11185.0,10170.0,9912.0,7520.0,6605.0,7576.0,9964.0,10976.0,10340.0,8256.0,10355.0,9608.0,10635.0,9666.0,9432.0,7160.0,6290.0,7214.0,9487.0,10450.0,9845.0,7860.0,10880.0,10452.0,13405.0,12210.0,11420.0,8015.0,6610.0,7595.0,10010.0,11015.0,10355.0,8260.0,10305.0,9554.0,10575.0,9612.0,9380.0,7120.0,6255.0,7168.0,9434.0,10390.0,9790.0,7820.0,9715.0,9016.0,9981.0,9072.0,8853.0,6720.0,5904.0,6768.0,8904.0,9808.0,9240.0,7379.0,9259.0,8587.0,9507.0,8640.0,8431.0,6400.0,5621.0,6445.0,8480.0,9341.0,8800.0,7027.0,8970.0,8615.0,9210.0,8370.0,8168.0,6200.0,5445.0,6244.0,8215.0,9049.0,8525.0,6801.0,8680.0,8050.0,8916.0,8100.0,7902.0,6000.0,5270.0,6045.0,7950.0,8757.0,8250.0,6588.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[40700.0,42500.0,40000.0,37100.0,34900.0,31300.0,29200.0,30600.0,34900.0,37800.0,38500.0,33500.0,42000.0,43900.0,41300.0,38300.0,36100.0,32400.0,30100.0,31600.0,36100.0,39100.0,39800.0,34600.0,43400.0,45300.0,42600.0,39600.0,37200.0,33400.0,31100.0,32600.0,37200.0,40300.0,41100.0,35700.0,44700.0,46700.0,44000.0,40800.0,38400.0,34500.0,32100.0,33700.0,38400.0,41600.0,42400.0,36800.0,45400.0,47400.0,45200.0,39600.0,36700.0,33600.0,31600.0,33200.0,38200.0,41400.0,42300.0,36600.0,46300.0,48400.0,45500.0,42200.0,39800.0,35700.0,33200.0,34900.0,39800.0,43100.0,43900.0,38100.0,47500.0,49600.0,46600.0,43300.0,40700.0,36500.0,34000.0,35700.0,40700.0,44100.0,44900.0,39100.0,48600.0,50700.0,47700.0,44300.0,41700.0,37400.0,34800.0,36600.0,41700.0,45200.0,46000.0,40000.0,49300.0,51400.0,48400.0,44900.0,42300.0,37900.0,35300.0,37100.0,42300.0,45800.0,46700.0,40500.0,49900.0,52200.0,49100.0,45500.0,42900.0,38500.0,35800.0,37600.0,42900.0,46400.0,47300.0,41100.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[14040.0,14040.0,13650.0,13000.0,12350.0,10920.0,10400.0,11440.0,13780.0,14300.0,14170.0,12610.0,14796.0,14796.0,14385.0,13700.0,13015.0,11508.0,10960.0,12056.0,14522.0,15070.0,14933.0,13289.0,15552.0,15552.0,15120.0,14400.0,13680.0,12096.0,11520.0,12672.0,15264.0,15840.0,15696.0,13968.0,16200.0,16200.0,15750.0,15000.0,14250.0,12600.0,12000.0,13200.0,15900.0,16500.0,16350.0,14550.0,15336.0,15336.0,14910.0,14200.0,13490.0,11928.0,11360.0,12496.0,15052.0,15620.0,15478.0,13774.0,14580.0,14580.0,14175.0,13500.0,12825.0,11340.0,10800.0,11880.0,14310.0,14850.0,14715.0,13095.0,13716.0,13716.0,13335.0,12700.0,12065.0,10668.0,10160.0,11176.0,13462.0,13970.0,13843.0,12319.0,12852.0,12852.0,12495.0,11900.0,11305.0,9996.0,9520.0,10472.0,12614.0,13090.0,12971.0,11543.0,12096.0,12096.0,11760.0,11200.0,10640.0,9408.0,8960.0,9856.0,11872.0,12320.0,12208.0,10864.0,11448.0,11448.0,11130.0,10600.0,10070.0,8904.0,8480.0,9328.0,11236.0,11660.0,11554.0,10282.0],"meta/muse-ember":[17820.0,17490.0,17655.0,16995.0,16335.0,14190.0,12045.0,13695.0,19635.0,19305.0,17490.0,14685.0,17496.0,17172.0,17334.0,16686.0,16038.0,13932.0,11826.0,13446.0,19278.0,18954.0,17172.0,14418.0,17172.0,16854.0,17013.0,16377.0,15741.0,13674.0,11607.0,13197.0,18921.0,18603.0,16854.0,14151.0,16848.0,16536.0,16692.0,16068.0,15444.0,13416.0,11388.0,12948.0,18564.0,18252.0,16536.0,13884.0,16524.0,16218.0,20464.0,18911.0,16965.0,13421.0,11169.0,12699.0,20938.0,19678.0,17029.0,14087.0,17576.0,17250.0,17244.0,16437.0,15642.0,13588.0,11534.0,13114.0,18802.0,18486.0,16748.0,14062.0,16308.0,16006.0,16157.0,15553.0,14949.0,12986.0,11023.0,12533.0,17969.0,17667.0,16006.0,13439.0,15660.0,15370.0,15515.0,14935.0,14355.0,12470.0,10585.0,12035.0,17255.0,16965.0,15370.0,12905.0,14904.0,14628.0,14766.0,14214.0,13662.0,11868.0,10074.0,11454.0,16422.0,16146.0,14628.0,12282.0,13716.0,13462.0,13589.0,13081.0,12573.0,10922.0,9271.0,10541.0,15113.0,14859.0,13462.0,11303.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[7800.0,8190.0,8580.0,8346.0,8034.0,7254.0,6630.0,6786.0,8268.0,8502.0,8190.0,7020.0,8400.0,8820.0,9240.0,8988.0,8652.0,7812.0,7140.0,7600.0,9200.0,9156.0,8820.0,7560.0,9200.0,9660.0,10120.0,9844.0,9476.0,8556.0,7820.0,8004.0,9752.0,10028.0,9660.0,8280.0,9600.0,10080.0,10560.0,10272.0,9888.0,8928.0,8160.0,8352.0,10176.0,10464.0,10080.0,8640.0,9300.0,9765.0,10230.0,9951.0,9579.0,8649.0,7905.0,8091.0,9858.0,10137.0,9765.0,8370.0,9800.0,10290.0,10780.0,10486.0,10094.0,9114.0,8330.0,8526.0,10388.0,10682.0,10290.0,8820.0,9500.0,9975.0,10450.0,10165.0,9785.0,8835.0,8075.0,8665.0,10470.0,10355.0,9975.0,8550.0,8900.0,9345.0,9790.0,9523.0,9167.0,8277.0,7565.0,7743.0,9434.0,9701.0,9345.0,8010.0,8400.0,8820.0,9240.0,8988.0,8652.0,7812.0,7140.0,7708.0,9304.0,9156.0,8820.0,7560.0,7900.0,8295.0,8690.0,8453.0,8137.0,7347.0,6715.0,6873.0,8374.0,8611.0,8295.0,7110.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[25980.0,24100.0,25250.0,23600.0,22900.0,21300.0,20750.0,22100.0,24000.0,25700.0,28400.0,23700.0,25000.0,22900.0,23600.0,23100.0,21800.0,20500.0,20100.0,21400.0,23200.0,24600.0,26200.0,23300.0,24200.0,22300.0,22900.0,22400.0,21200.0,19900.0,19600.0,20700.0,22300.0,23900.0,25500.0,22300.0,23900.0,21700.0,22300.0,21800.0,20500.0,19400.0,19100.0,20200.0,21800.0,23200.0,24900.0,21500.0,24600.0,23000.0,24800.0,23500.0,24900.0,22600.0,21700.0,23000.0,23400.0,25200.0,28000.0,24300.0,25500.0,22300.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19800.0,19300.0,20300.0,21700.0,23100.0,24300.0,21900.0,23700.0,21300.0,21900.0,21100.0,19900.0,18800.0,18300.0,19300.0,20700.0,22100.0,23300.0,20700.0,22600.0,20400.0,20900.0,20000.0,18900.0,17800.0,17400.0,18400.0,19700.0,21100.0,22200.0,19800.0,21700.0,19500.0,20100.0,19400.0,18300.0,17200.0,16900.0,17800.0,19000.0,20300.0,23800.0,19000.0,22200.0,19900.0,20400.0,19700.0,18500.0,17500.0,17100.0,18000.0,19200.0,20500.0,21700.0,19500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,31000.0,27000.0,29000.0,39000.0,42000.0,41000.0,34000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,31000.0,27000.0,30000.0,40000.0,43000.0,42000.0,34000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,31000.0,27000.0,30000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,33000.0,39000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,30000.0,26000.0,29000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,32000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,33000.0,28000.0,30000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,32000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,30000.0,26000.0,28000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,31000.0,36000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,28000.0,25000.0,27000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,29000.0,34000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,25000.0,22000.0,24000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,26000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,23000.0,21000.0,23000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,25000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[15800.0,15100.0,14900.0,14200.0,13300.0,11200.0,10900.0,14100.0,18700.0,17300.0,15100.0,12600.0,16100.0,15500.0,14900.0,14700.0,13600.0,11400.0,11200.0,14200.0,19200.0,17800.0,15300.0,12800.0,16800.0,16300.0,15600.0,15200.0,14000.0,11800.0,11600.0,15100.0,19500.0,18400.0,16100.0,13500.0,17300.0,16600.0,16000.0,15700.0,14400.0,12200.0,11900.0,15500.0,20400.0,19000.0,16400.0,13800.0,18800.0,18000.0,21000.0,22000.0,18200.0,13600.0,13100.0,19600.0,23200.0,21300.0,18400.0,15300.0,20800.0,20000.0,19600.0,19000.0,17400.0,14600.0,14100.0,18600.0,24400.0,23100.0,20100.0,16900.0,19800.0,18800.0,18500.0,18000.0,16600.0,14200.0,13800.0,17800.0,23100.0,21800.0,19000.0,16100.0,19300.0,18700.0,18000.0,17700.0,16300.0,13900.0,13500.0,17400.0,22800.0,21100.0,18400.0,15400.0,19000.0,18200.0,17700.0,17300.0,16100.0,13700.0,13200.0,17100.0,22300.0,20900.0,18200.0,15200.0,19300.0,18600.0,18100.0,17700.0,16300.0,13900.0,13500.0,17400.0,22800.0,21300.0,18600.0,15600.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[4800.0,4950.0,5300.0,5200.0,5350.0,5000.0,4700.0,4800.0,5400.0,5500.0,5250.0,4500.0,4950.0,5050.0,5450.0,5350.0,5500.0,5150.0,4850.0,4950.0,5550.0,5650.0,5400.0,4650.0,5100.0,5250.0,5600.0,5500.0,5700.0,5300.0,4950.0,5100.0,5750.0,5800.0,5550.0,4800.0,5300.0,5400.0,5800.0,5650.0,5850.0,5450.0,5100.0,5200.0,5900.0,6000.0,5700.0,4950.0,5600.0,5700.0,6100.0,6500.0,6700.0,6300.0,5900.0,6000.0,6600.0,6700.0,6350.0,5500.0,5850.0,5950.0,6350.0,6250.0,6500.0,6050.0,5650.0,5800.0,6450.0,6550.0,6200.0,5350.0,5700.0,5800.0,6200.0,6100.0,6350.0,5900.0,5500.0,5650.0,6250.0,6350.0,6000.0,5150.0,5650.0,5750.0,6150.0,6050.0,6300.0,5850.0,5450.0,5600.0,6200.0,6300.0,5950.0,5100.0,5700.0,5800.0,6200.0,6100.0,6350.0,5900.0,5500.0,5650.0,6250.0,6350.0,6000.0,5150.0,5750.0,5850.0,6250.0,6150.0,6400.0,5950.0,5550.0,5700.0,6300.0,6400.0,6050.0,5200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3960.0,3960.0,3890.0,3670.0,3600.0,3310.0,3100.0,3240.0,3780.0,3820.0,3670.0,3310.0,3850.0,3840.0,3780.0,3570.0,3500.0,3220.0,3010.0,3150.0,3680.0,3710.0,3570.0,3220.0,3740.0,3740.0,3670.0,3470.0,3400.0,3130.0,2920.0,3060.0,3570.0,3600.0,3470.0,3130.0,3630.0,3630.0,3560.0,3370.0,3300.0,3040.0,2840.0,2970.0,3470.0,3500.0,3370.0,3040.0,3500.0,3550.0,4100.0,4200.0,3900.0,3500.0,3150.0,3200.0,3600.0,3700.0,3550.0,3300.0,3500.0,3450.0,3500.0,3350.0,3250.0,3000.0,2850.0,2950.0,3400.0,3450.0,3300.0,3000.0,3300.0,3250.0,3250.0,3150.0,3050.0,2850.0,2700.0,2780.0,3150.0,3200.0,3080.0,2850.0,3100.0,3050.0,3050.0,2950.0,2850.0,2680.0,2520.0,2600.0,2950.0,3000.0,2880.0,2660.0,2900.0,2850.0,2830.0,2750.0,2700.0,2480.0,2320.0,2430.0,2830.0,2860.0,2750.0,2480.0,2700.0,2650.0,2620.0,2550.0,2500.0,2300.0,2150.0,2250.0,2620.0,2650.0,2550.0,2300.0]}},{"title":"Ramanuja","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Ramanuja\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[17119,16965,13788,12920,21049,17057,19103,22279,18145,18012,18638,24073,26745,19102,18493,25747,31289,18625,19982,17068,17453,20223,17898,19890,22185,17442,17490,19542,16177,14722,22213,23328,16994,17772,18152,20549,23446,17489,14705,14630,20842,13940,16629,18030,16096,16453,16959,19917,20914,20263,15238,32507,18634,14704,16852,17541,17268,16339,14587,17042,19560,18805,20481,22108,18528,15640,19450,17471,23773,21909,20590,23745,53433,268530,34585,26203,29560,30329,25169,24745,26986,27027,24974,29120,32084,24766,25750,31056,26146,24935,25288,27566,25042,25309,23355,30092,41991,28060,21990,20639,24940,20204,20000,24626,21450,19545,19798,24638,25649,18212,18182,17671,20262,17198,18643,18877,15916,16794,15787,18163],"flat_reference_value":16943.867009547233,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[18000.0,16500.0,18500.0,22000.0,28000.0,19500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,19000.0,18500.0,19000.0,20500.0,19500.0,22000.0,52000.0,72000.0,30000.0,24500.0,23000.0,21500.0,22500.0,21000.0,22000.0,22500.0,20500.0,22000.0,31000.0,30000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20500.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,23000.0,32000.0,29000.0,22500.0,21500.0,22500.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22500.0,25000.0,34000.0,32000.0,25000.0,23500.0,24500.0,22500.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,25000.0,34000.0,33000.0,24500.0,23000.0,24500.0,22500.0,24000.0,23000.0,26000.0,40000.0,150000.0,60000.0,42000.0,39000.0,30000.0,27500.0,28500.0,26000.0,27500.0,26000.0,27500.0,28000.0,26000.0,27500.0,37000.0,35000.0,27000.0,25500.0,26500.0,25000.0,26500.0,25000.0,26000.0,27500.0,25000.0,27000.0,36000.0,34000.0,26000.0,24500.0,26000.0,24500.0,26000.0,24500.0,25500.0,27000.0,24500.0,26500.0,35000.0,34000.0,25500.0,24500.0,25500.0,24000.0,25500.0,24000.0,25000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[22400.0,21100.0,22800.0,24500.0,31200.0,22900.0,23600.0,24100.0,23800.0,24400.0,25200.0,23900.0,25800.0,24200.0,26900.0,38500.0,74000.0,28400.0,27100.0,27600.0,26800.0,27900.0,28500.0,26400.0,28200.0,26100.0,28900.0,39200.0,31400.0,27800.0,29100.0,29800.0,28700.0,30200.0,29400.0,27900.0,30100.0,28300.0,31200.0,32800.0,41500.0,29600.0,31000.0,32400.0,31800.0,32900.0,33500.0,30800.0,33200.0,31400.0,34100.0,46800.0,41200.0,37900.0,38600.0,39400.0,38200.0,37500.0,35800.0,34200.0,36500.0,33900.0,36200.0,37800.0,48500.0,36900.0,35400.0,36100.0,35200.0,34800.0,33600.0,32500.0,38900.0,235000.0,54200.0,39500.0,47800.0,34600.0,63500.0,36800.0,34100.0,33700.0,33200.0,31400.0,33100.0,31800.0,32900.0,44200.0,35600.0,30800.0,31500.0,32100.0,30900.0,33400.0,30200.0,28900.0,30400.0,28700.0,29800.0,31500.0,40800.0,28200.0,29100.0,29600.0,28400.0,28900.0,27600.0,26500.0,28100.0,26800.0,27900.0,30200.0,38900.0,26700.0,27400.0,27800.0,26900.0,27300.0,26400.0,25600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[26100.0,25400.0,27200.0,29800.0,38200.0,24900.0,26300.0,28100.0,27500.0,26800.0,25900.0,26400.0,27800.0,28300.0,31500.0,46200.0,63800.0,32100.0,30400.0,31200.0,29800.0,28600.0,29100.0,28700.0,29300.0,28100.0,30200.0,35400.0,41200.0,28700.0,29900.0,31500.0,30800.0,29400.0,28200.0,29100.0,31200.0,29800.0,32100.0,34800.0,42600.0,30100.0,31400.0,32800.0,31900.0,30500.0,29800.0,31000.0,32400.0,31100.0,33500.0,38900.0,45100.0,34200.0,35600.0,36100.0,33800.0,32900.0,31800.0,32500.0,33800.0,32400.0,34100.0,37200.0,44800.0,33100.0,34500.0,35200.0,33900.0,33400.0,34800.0,38100.0,46500.0,324000.0,88500.0,52100.0,56400.0,41200.0,39800.0,40500.0,37900.0,36400.0,35800.0,37200.0,38400.0,42100.0,39600.0,48200.0,47100.0,36500.0,37200.0,38100.0,36400.0,35100.0,34800.0,36200.0,37400.0,36100.0,37800.0,42300.0,46800.0,35200.0,36100.0,37400.0,35800.0,34900.0,34200.0,35500.0,36800.0,35900.0,37100.0,41800.0,45900.0,34700.0,35400.0,36200.0,34900.0,34100.0,33800.0,35000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,34000.0,37000.0,52000.0,58000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,36000.0,33000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,33000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,36000.0,35000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,38000.0,115000.0,40000.0,30000.0,29000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,48000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,62000.0,85000.0,50000.0,50000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,50000.0,56000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,51000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,49000.0,51000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,55000.0,48000.0,50000.0,51000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,49000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,60000.0,60000.0,56000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,53000.0,53000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,56000.0,57000.0,54000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,51000.0,51000.0,52000.0,60000.0,210000.0,65000.0,56000.0,58000.0,51000.0,51000.0,51000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,47000.0,47000.0,52000.0,49000.0,46000.0,47000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,46000.0,50000.0,45000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,49000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,43000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[26000.0,27500.0,28500.0,29500.0,30000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25500.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27500.0,28500.0,30000.0,31000.0,33500.0,38000.0,30000.0,29000.0,45000.0,30500.0,30500.0,29500.0,31000.0,30500.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,30000.0,29500.0,30500.0,30500.0,31500.0,30500.0,32000.0,31500.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,37000.0,31500.0,30500.0,32500.0,31500.0,33500.0,31500.0,33500.0,33500.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,34500.0,33500.0,34500.0,33500.0,35000.0,33500.0,35000.0,34000.0,35500.0,36500.0,37500.0,41000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35500.0,34000.0,36000.0,52000.0,190000.0,58000.0,44000.0,48000.0,38500.0,37500.0,38500.0,37500.0,39000.0,37500.0,39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,47000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,41000.0,41500.0,42500.0,43500.0,44000.0,48000.0,40500.0,39500.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40500.0,42500.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,50000.0,42000.0,41500.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42500.0,44500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4120.0,3845.0,3910.0,3650.0,3420.0,3280.0,3355.0,3490.0,3710.0,3980.0,4105.0,3950.0,4200.0,4380.0,5120.0,11850.0,14200.0,7850.0,5200.0,4950.0,5100.0,5450.0,5680.0,4920.0,4780.0,4420.0,4610.0,4890.0,4520.0,4180.0,3950.0,4100.0,4330.0,4710.0,4980.0,4525.0,5120.0,4850.0,5025.0,5340.0,5180.0,4750.0,4620.0,4790.0,5040.0,5480.0,5730.0,5205.0,5640.0,5420.0,6230.0,7120.0,6840.0,6320.0,5980.0,5850.0,6120.0,6480.0,6720.0,6150.0,6380.0,6020.0,6310.0,6590.0,6420.0,5980.0,5840.0,6030.0,6280.0,6740.0,6980.0,6480.0,11250.0,68400.0,21400.0,10200.0,8340.0,7420.0,7150.0,7380.0,7620.0,8150.0,8430.0,7690.0,7540.0,6980.0,7240.0,7510.0,6980.0,6420.0,6290.0,6540.0,6820.0,7350.0,7620.0,7040.0,7680.0,7320.0,7450.0,7820.0,7350.0,6780.0,6540.0,6790.0,7040.0,7580.0,7910.0,7250.0,7820.0,7350.0,7610.0,7950.0,7480.0,6920.0,6710.0,6950.0,7220.0,7760.0,8080.0,7480.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[26300.0,24100.0,25800.0,28400.0,29600.0,24300.0,22100.0,23300.0,25600.0,27000.0,26400.0,24000.0,35200.0,31000.0,33500.0,40500.0,48000.0,35500.0,32000.0,32500.0,36500.0,40500.0,37500.0,34000.0,30800.0,26700.0,29400.0,32600.0,34200.0,27800.0,25200.0,26600.0,29300.0,31900.0,30100.0,27600.0,32400.0,28900.0,31200.0,34800.0,36100.0,30200.0,27600.0,28100.0,31000.0,33400.0,31800.0,29000.0,35900.0,32300.0,38500.0,46200.0,49000.0,37600.0,33200.0,33800.0,35700.0,39300.0,37200.0,34100.0,38400.0,34600.0,37900.0,44300.0,46800.0,38200.0,34100.0,34700.0,37400.0,41600.0,39200.0,35800.0,43000.0,112000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49500.0,41500.0,37500.0,38000.0,41000.0,45500.0,43500.0,39500.0,42700.0,39100.0,41300.0,47200.0,49600.0,41900.0,38100.0,38600.0,41900.0,46300.0,43900.0,40000.0,45200.0,41000.0,44100.0,50100.0,52600.0,44300.0,40100.0,40800.0,44700.0,48900.0,46300.0,42000.0,48200.0,43600.0,46900.0,53200.0,55600.0,46700.0,42300.0,42900.0,47100.0,51400.0,48900.0,44600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[15400.0,14000.0,14000.0,17500.0,15400.0,12600.0,12600.0,13300.0,13300.0,14700.0,14700.0,16100.0,17600.0,16000.0,16000.0,75000.0,29600.0,14400.0,14400.0,15200.0,15200.0,16800.0,24800.0,18400.0,19800.0,18000.0,18000.0,22500.0,19800.0,16200.0,16200.0,17100.0,17100.0,18900.0,18900.0,20700.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,25000.0,22000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,24200.0,22000.0,22000.0,27500.0,24200.0,19800.0,19800.0,20900.0,20900.0,23100.0,23100.0,25300.0,26400.0,24000.0,24000.0,30000.0,26400.0,21600.0,21600.0,22800.0,22800.0,25200.0,25200.0,27600.0,28600.0,206000.0,26000.0,32500.0,38600.0,23400.0,23400.0,24700.0,24700.0,27300.0,27300.0,29900.0,30800.0,28000.0,28000.0,35000.0,30800.0,25200.0,25200.0,26600.0,26600.0,29400.0,29400.0,32200.0,31900.0,29000.0,29000.0,36250.0,31900.0,26100.0,26100.0,27550.0,27550.0,30450.0,30450.0,33350.0,33000.0,30000.0,30000.0,37500.0,33000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28500.0,28500.0,31500.0,31500.0,34500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[6200.0,5800.0,6400.0,8900.0,5600.0,6100.0,6600.0,6900.0,6400.0,6100.0,5800.0,6600.0,7500.0,8200.0,9500.0,18800.0,12500.0,8800.0,9200.0,9800.0,9100.0,8600.0,9300.0,10800.0,6800.0,6500.0,8600.0,7900.0,6600.0,7000.0,7400.0,7700.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,7100.0,7000.0,6700.0,7100.0,9600.0,6900.0,7300.0,7700.0,8000.0,7400.0,7000.0,6700.0,7300.0,7200.0,6900.0,7900.0,10200.0,7400.0,7600.0,7800.0,8100.0,7500.0,7100.0,6800.0,7600.0,7400.0,7900.0,7600.0,11500.0,8400.0,7800.0,8100.0,8400.0,7800.0,7400.0,7100.0,7900.0,9500.0,28400.0,14200.0,13800.0,9300.0,8600.0,8900.0,9200.0,8700.0,8300.0,8000.0,8800.0,8600.0,9600.0,8400.0,11200.0,8800.0,8500.0,8800.0,9100.0,8600.0,9100.0,8400.0,8900.0,10200.0,9000.0,8700.0,11800.0,9200.0,8900.0,9200.0,9500.0,9000.0,8700.0,8400.0,9300.0,9600.0,9900.0,9200.0,12500.0,9600.0,9300.0,9600.0,9900.0,9400.0,9100.0,8800.0,9700.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[10200.0,10800.0,12100.0,13400.0,13100.0,10600.0,9400.0,9700.0,10500.0,11600.0,12200.0,9900.0,28000.0,38000.0,55000.0,78000.0,95000.0,62000.0,40000.0,33000.0,30000.0,34000.0,42000.0,35000.0,14800.0,15500.0,17200.0,18800.0,18400.0,14900.0,13100.0,13500.0,14700.0,16000.0,16800.0,13600.0,14200.0,15000.0,16700.0,18300.0,18000.0,14500.0,12800.0,13200.0,14300.0,15700.0,16600.0,13500.0,15500.0,16400.0,18500.0,20500.0,20000.0,16000.0,14200.0,14700.0,15900.0,17400.0,18300.0,14800.0,16400.0,17300.0,19400.0,21400.0,21000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15500.0,16800.0,18500.0,19500.0,15800.0,45000.0,150000.0,80000.0,65000.0,50000.0,36000.0,28000.0,24000.0,22000.0,26000.0,30000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19500.0,18000.0,17500.0,14500.0,13000.0,13200.0,14000.0,15000.0,15500.0,13000.0,12000.0,12700.0,14200.0,15600.0,15300.0,12400.0,10900.0,11300.0,12200.0,13400.0,14100.0,11400.0,11000.0,11600.0,13000.0,14300.0,14000.0,11400.0,10000.0,10400.0,11200.0,12300.0,13000.0,10500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[29800.0,25400.0,22300.0,20600.0,21900.0,22600.0,23100.0,23900.0,25700.0,30800.0,49500.0,58700.0,43500.0,31200.0,27300.0,24700.0,25600.0,25900.0,26800.0,27600.0,29400.0,35100.0,148500.0,91000.0,51000.0,36000.0,30400.0,27600.0,28700.0,28900.0,29800.0,30700.0,32600.0,38900.0,67500.0,63200.0,44600.0,34100.0,28900.0,26200.0,27400.0,27800.0,28700.0,29600.0,31100.0,37000.0,46800.0,50300.0,43900.0,33600.0,29400.0,39800.0,45200.0,40700.0,35900.0,34200.0,35800.0,40700.0,47300.0,49600.0,47300.0,35800.0,30200.0,27800.0,28900.0,29700.0,30800.0,31900.0,33400.0,39900.0,47900.0,51800.0,42600.0,32700.0,27900.0,25500.0,26700.0,27600.0,28600.0,29700.0,31200.0,37200.0,43900.0,46800.0,40100.0,30900.0,26400.0,24100.0,25300.0,26200.0,27200.0,28100.0,29500.0,35200.0,41000.0,44700.0,37300.0,28800.0,24700.0,22500.0,23700.0,24500.0,25400.0,26300.0,27700.0,33000.0,38200.0,41600.0,34800.0,27100.0,23200.0,21300.0,22400.0,23200.0,24100.0,24900.0,26200.0,31200.0,36100.0,39300.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1250.0,1200.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1400.0,1300.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1450.0,1350.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1450.0,1500.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1550.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1700.0,3200.0,2200.0,1800.0,1800.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1650.0,1800.0,1750.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1650.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1850.0,1850.0,1650.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1850.0,1800.0,1650.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2600.0,2100.0,2700.0,2800.0,2200.0,1900.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,3100.0,3800.0,4200.0,2800.0,2300.0,3200.0,3800.0,3000.0,2500.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,4200.0,6300.0,7000.0,2900.0,2400.0,3200.0,3400.0,2500.0,2100.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,3600.0,5000.0,5400.0,3000.0,2500.0,3500.0,3800.0,2700.0,2300.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,4000.0,5700.0,6200.0,3200.0,2600.0,3300.0,3500.0,2500.0,2100.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,4100.0,6000.0,6400.0,3100.0,2700.0,3600.0,3900.0,2800.0,2400.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,4400.0,6200.0,6700.0,3300.0,2800.0,3800.0,4100.0,2900.0,2500.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,4700.0,6600.0,7100.0,3500.0,3000.0,4000.0,4300.0,3100.0,2700.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,5000.0,7000.0,7500.0,3700.0,3100.0,4200.0,4500.0,3300.0,2800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,5300.0,7400.0,7900.0,3800.0,3300.0,4300.0,4700.0,3400.0,2900.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,5500.0,7600.0,8200.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[4200.0,3900.0,4400.0,4800.0,6100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4900.0,4300.0,4000.0,4700.0,4500.0,6000.0,17800.0,24600.0,10800.0,6500.0,5900.0,5500.0,5600.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,4600.0,5000.0,5400.0,6900.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,5300.0,4700.0,4400.0,5200.0,4800.0,5300.0,5900.0,7300.0,5600.0,5300.0,5400.0,5100.0,5700.0,5000.0,4700.0,5500.0,5200.0,5700.0,6500.0,8100.0,6500.0,6200.0,6400.0,6100.0,6800.0,6000.0,5600.0,5900.0,5500.0,6100.0,6900.0,8500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,7000.0,6200.0,5800.0,7800.0,22400.0,11200.0,7900.0,9700.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,7500.0,6600.0,6200.0,6400.0,6000.0,6500.0,7400.0,9200.0,7300.0,7000.0,7200.0,6900.0,7600.0,6700.0,6300.0,6700.0,6200.0,6800.0,7700.0,9500.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7900.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,7100.0,8100.0,9900.0,7900.0,7600.0,7800.0,7500.0,8200.0,7300.0,6800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,2700.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2600.0,2400.0,3000.0,3400.0,3200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3100.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2800.0,2600.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2500.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2800.0,16000.0,6000.0,3500.0,2800.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0]}},{"title":"Alex Wolff","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Alex Wolff\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[17465,13381,33215,34998,26214,25587,29398,24941,22518,32932,26211,49570,72595,32042,41793,39568,28056,37290,49987,40837,37202,32315,35907,105204,118930,60167,120235,118390,78223,300371,111887,102364,120962,80590,61061,66961,84700,68559,75922,49391,53631,57753,98628,60566,55782,65368,69341,122578,80573,71247,94323,95797,93203,77902,101534,78504,60433,79877,67601,52515,64009,72295,55223,50639,73017,71872,246862,124688,76472,82636,72177,66550,72388,52396,65676,61753,72574,59041,60977,56756,64557,70570,45849,53147,82743,82540,75074,99422,74839,76168,135032,86268,71490,66951,63103,65367,80130,78288,68148,59548,65930,129908,145079,95148,82225,98795,69471,57076,76199,76271,51849,47091,50573,98056,62552,54072,46840,57972,60177,48927],"flat_reference_value":16848.09494451064,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,32000.0,65000.0,39000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,42000.0,65000.0,220000.0,280000.0,130000.0,90000.0,85000.0,95000.0,520000.0,300000.0,210000.0,170000.0,210000.0,125000.0,110000.0,100000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,80000.0,82000.0,78000.0,75000.0,95000.0,85000.0,250000.0,240000.0,125000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,90000.0,88000.0,85000.0,80000.0,110000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,75000.0,85000.0,330000.0,260000.0,150000.0,130000.0,105000.0,95000.0,90000.0,80000.0,80000.0,78000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,80000.0,75000.0,105000.0,80000.0,78000.0,75000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,70000.0,75000.0,155000.0,160000.0,100000.0,115000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,75000.0,80000.0,72000.0,75000.0,155000.0,180000.0,110000.0,85000.0,110000.0,80000.0,78000.0,75000.0,75000.0,130000.0,145000.0,100000.0,85000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,100000.0,75000.0,78000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[42000.0,39000.0,68000.0,54000.0,41000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,43000.0,48000.0,78000.0,225000.0,105000.0,72000.0,68000.0,58000.0,52000.0,55000.0,51000.0,49000.0,56000.0,85000.0,195000.0,255000.0,120000.0,95000.0,88000.0,82000.0,385000.0,195000.0,115000.0,145000.0,135000.0,85000.0,88000.0,82000.0,68000.0,72000.0,70000.0,66000.0,69000.0,74000.0,68000.0,64000.0,86000.0,75000.0,210000.0,185000.0,92000.0,88000.0,105000.0,86000.0,76000.0,78000.0,74000.0,69000.0,95000.0,72000.0,76000.0,75000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,70000.0,82000.0,290000.0,175000.0,98000.0,115000.0,85000.0,82000.0,78000.0,65000.0,68000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,66000.0,63000.0,59000.0,84000.0,62000.0,66000.0,68000.0,61000.0,65000.0,60000.0,62000.0,68000.0,215000.0,155000.0,88000.0,92000.0,96000.0,78000.0,74000.0,68000.0,76000.0,65000.0,78000.0,165000.0,210000.0,125000.0,105000.0,130000.0,110000.0,95000.0,82000.0,70000.0,68000.0,64000.0,62000.0,65000.0,68000.0,64000.0,60000.0,82000.0,63000.0,67000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[18200.0,17500.0,25400.0,21300.0,19100.0,18400.0,19800.0,18900.0,17200.0,18600.0,21400.0,38200.0,56400.0,28100.0,22300.0,20800.0,21500.0,23200.0,22100.0,24500.0,23900.0,26800.0,31200.0,68400.0,84100.0,41200.0,32500.0,34800.0,42100.0,322000.0,212000.0,81500.0,52300.0,48700.0,42100.0,44800.0,41500.0,35200.0,33400.0,32100.0,31600.0,33200.0,34100.0,32900.0,37800.0,36200.0,41500.0,76200.0,53400.0,31200.0,28400.0,30500.0,27300.0,25200.0,26800.0,24900.0,23500.0,29800.0,24200.0,26100.0,25800.0,24100.0,24900.0,23200.0,27500.0,34200.0,118000.0,67300.0,38400.0,34100.0,29800.0,28700.0,27400.0,24100.0,25200.0,23800.0,22600.0,23100.0,24500.0,23900.0,22400.0,26100.0,23500.0,24800.0,25300.0,23400.0,24100.0,25800.0,28200.0,32400.0,136000.0,94500.0,46200.0,35800.0,31200.0,32800.0,31500.0,27400.0,28900.0,26800.0,30200.0,58400.0,62100.0,37200.0,29800.0,32100.0,27400.0,28600.0,27200.0,25100.0,24800.0,23900.0,24200.0,25600.0,26300.0,25400.0,24100.0,26800.0,24500.0,25900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[24000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,55000.0,75000.0,45000.0,38000.0,36000.0,45000.0,190000.0,120000.0,75000.0,58000.0,62000.0,48000.0,50000.0,50000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,40000.0,38000.0,62000.0,65000.0,45000.0,45000.0,50000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,42000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,45000.0,170000.0,110000.0,65000.0,55000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,36000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,32000.0,95000.0,90000.0,50000.0,45000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,36000.0,45000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[65000.0,60000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0,60000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,95000.0,170000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,75000.0,80000.0,85000.0,75000.0,75000.0,75000.0,85000.0,420000.0,620000.0,300000.0,300000.0,230000.0,170000.0,520000.0,330000.0,240000.0,260000.0,210000.0,170000.0,190000.0,180000.0,140000.0,130000.0,125000.0,120000.0,130000.0,140000.0,125000.0,115000.0,120000.0,125000.0,430000.0,340000.0,170000.0,200000.0,240000.0,190000.0,160000.0,150000.0,140000.0,120000.0,120000.0,115000.0,130000.0,130000.0,110000.0,105000.0,105000.0,105000.0,120000.0,650000.0,420000.0,200000.0,190000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,115000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,105000.0,110000.0,100000.0,90000.0,95000.0,90000.0,100000.0,100000.0,85000.0,85000.0,80000.0,80000.0,85000.0,300000.0,200000.0,110000.0,100000.0,105000.0,115000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,85000.0,85000.0,220000.0,330000.0,150000.0,110000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,110000.0,95000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[13500.0,12800.0,13800.0,14700.0,14200.0,15300.0,14900.0,15600.0,16400.0,17200.0,18500.0,38000.0,108000.0,43000.0,31000.0,27500.0,26000.0,25400.0,24800.0,24200.0,24600.0,27300.0,32600.0,122000.0,152000.0,61000.0,36500.0,33000.0,48000.0,258000.0,104000.0,47000.0,31000.0,37200.0,27400.0,29300.0,24800.0,23100.0,24500.0,26700.0,25900.0,27200.0,26400.0,28800.0,58000.0,52000.0,36500.0,71000.0,34800.0,27200.0,24900.0,86000.0,39000.0,27600.0,26200.0,25400.0,26800.0,30500.0,25600.0,26900.0,24200.0,23100.0,23800.0,29600.0,33500.0,41800.0,148000.0,63000.0,35200.0,38600.0,28400.0,26200.0,23500.0,21900.0,22600.0,23400.0,22800.0,24100.0,27500.0,56000.0,33500.0,31200.0,23800.0,24600.0,23000.0,21500.0,22200.0,24800.0,26300.0,34500.0,27600.0,25900.0,26800.0,32700.0,24900.0,25700.0,24100.0,22400.0,24600.0,28300.0,34200.0,121000.0,57000.0,31400.0,28200.0,33400.0,26800.0,25300.0,23500.0,21800.0,22700.0,23900.0,24800.0,28600.0,30200.0,33400.0,49000.0,35200.0,26400.0,27800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[14200.0,13100.0,14800.0,13900.0,15200.0,16100.0,17800.0,17400.0,18900.0,20500.0,22400.0,38200.0,24800.0,19600.0,18400.0,17900.0,18600.0,19200.0,21100.0,20500.0,22800.0,26400.0,48700.0,164500.0,118300.0,62400.0,34800.0,29600.0,31400.0,275800.0,184600.0,94500.0,52400.0,68300.0,41200.0,38500.0,32600.0,28900.0,27400.0,30500.0,29800.0,31200.0,33500.0,32100.0,30800.0,38700.0,58200.0,192400.0,135800.0,58200.0,45600.0,51200.0,43800.0,38900.0,36400.0,35200.0,34100.0,48900.0,38200.0,35600.0,34800.0,32900.0,31500.0,34200.0,36800.0,44700.0,132600.0,68400.0,42500.0,51800.0,39800.0,37200.0,33500.0,31200.0,30800.0,29600.0,32400.0,35100.0,33800.0,32200.0,31500.0,42600.0,33800.0,32900.0,31400.0,30800.0,32900.0,35600.0,41200.0,85600.0,268500.0,156200.0,78300.0,54200.0,41800.0,37600.0,35200.0,34800.0,38500.0,47200.0,68500.0,213800.0,148500.0,72400.0,46800.0,55900.0,41200.0,38900.0,36400.0,33800.0,35200.0,34100.0,33500.0,32800.0,36700.0,35400.0,38200.0,47100.0,36900.0,35800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[14000.0,12500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,13500.0,14500.0,18500.0,16500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13500.0,17000.0,19000.0,32000.0,310000.0,260000.0,55000.0,34000.0,28000.0,27000.0,360000.0,135000.0,55000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,36000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,23500.0,23500.0,42000.0,32000.0,38000.0,245000.0,92000.0,42000.0,44000.0,68000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,98000.0,58000.0,42000.0,39000.0,39000.0,43000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,48000.0,39000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,52000.0,47000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,43000.0,175000.0,118000.0,55000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,49000.0,46000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,52000.0,49000.0,48000.0,53000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5500.0,5300.0,5100.0,5200.0,5400.0,5800.0,6000.0,6200.0,6500.0,6300.0,6800.0,7000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,7500.0,9000.0,45000.0,80000.0,25000.0,18000.0,15000.0,18000.0,180000.0,70000.0,35000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16000.0,17000.0,20000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,25000.0,90000.0,45000.0,25000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,22000.0,110000.0,45000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,24000.0,30000.0,260000.0,90000.0,40000.0,28000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,26000.0,70000.0,60000.0,35000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,30000.0,25000.0,24000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3800.0,3400.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,4500.0,4700.0,4400.0,4000.0,4300.0,5100.0,4700.0,4900.0,4600.0,5200.0,5400.0,5800.0,6300.0,6600.0,6100.0,7500.0,13500.0,10800.0,21500.0,17500.0,15500.0,13500.0,14800.0,16500.0,44000.0,36000.0,21000.0,14500.0,12500.0,11500.0,10500.0,9800.0,9200.0,9500.0,10200.0,10800.0,11200.0,11800.0,10700.0,9900.0,10300.0,10800.0,10400.0,10200.0,9900.0,10800.0,10600.0,11000.0,11300.0,11600.0,11900.0,11400.0,12800.0,20500.0,17500.0,13800.0,13200.0,14200.0,14800.0,15800.0,17500.0,25500.0,20500.0,16800.0,15800.0,16200.0,16800.0,15200.0,14700.0,15500.0,16200.0,17000.0,17800.0,18500.0,17600.0,16800.0,17200.0,17800.0,18400.0,19500.0,20500.0,21500.0,23500.0,27500.0,34000.0,68000.0,52000.0,38000.0,33000.0,30500.0,29000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25500.0,26500.0,27500.0,28500.0,27000.0,25500.0,26000.0,27000.0,26500.0,24500.0,23500.0,25000.0,25500.0,26500.0,27500.0,28500.0,27000.0,26000.0,25500.0,25000.0,24500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[120.0,100.0,430.0,260.0,180.0,160.0,150.0,160.0,190.0,220.0,300.0,370.0,420.0,540.0,680.0,390.0,260.0,220.0,200.0,210.0,310.0,500.0,640.0,720.0,780.0,880.0,950.0,520.0,330.0,250.0,230.0,240.0,340.0,540.0,720.0,820.0,900.0,1150.0,46000.0,9500.0,2700.0,1600.0,1250.0,1150.0,1500.0,2100.0,2700.0,2300.0,2500.0,3100.0,4300.0,1900.0,1250.0,950.0,850.0,900.0,1150.0,1550.0,1850.0,1650.0,2300.0,2700.0,3100.0,1900.0,1600.0,68000.0,42000.0,8500.0,5200.0,4600.0,3900.0,4300.0,4900.0,5300.0,5700.0,18000.0,7800.0,2700.0,9200.0,3300.0,2900.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,3700.0,2300.0,1900.0,1700.0,2700.0,2300.0,2500.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3700.0,6800.0,2700.0,1900.0,1500.0,1250.0,1150.0,1050.0,1250.0,1600.0,1400.0,1500.0,1250.0,1150.0,1050.0,850.0,750.0,680.0,620.0,650.0,780.0,930.0,880.0,820.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[310.0,340.0,390.0,430.0,500.0,470.0,410.0,380.0,440.0,520.0,590.0,720.0,3400.0,1900.0,1350.0,1100.0,980.0,930.0,1010.0,970.0,1080.0,1210.0,1370.0,1580.0,1720.0,1560.0,5900.0,26500.0,18300.0,10200.0,6900.0,5600.0,7100.0,5300.0,5700.0,11200.0,7300.0,5700.0,4800.0,5000.0,6300.0,14600.0,9000.0,6200.0,9600.0,8100.0,11200.0,19300.0,16800.0,10800.0,6700.0,12900.0,19500.0,58500.0,30200.0,19400.0,12800.0,15800.0,11700.0,9800.0,8600.0,7300.0,6500.0,5900.0,5400.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,5600.0,6600.0,6900.0,7400.0,7900.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6100.0,5700.0,5100.0,5200.0,6100.0,7100.0,6700.0,6900.0,7100.0,6700.0,7500.0,6900.0,7500.0,8600.0,12600.0,9100.0,7900.0,8300.0,8900.0,9500.0,9900.0,10300.0,15700.0,12100.0,11600.0,21200.0,13200.0,38200.0,23700.0,34200.0,19300.0,29200.0,22400.0,18700.0,16800.0,16200.0,17700.0,19700.0,23200.0,72400.0,61500.0,82500.0,47300.0,51200.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,48000.0,90000.0,95000.0,75000.0,70000.0,75000.0,80000.0,130000.0,120000.0,95000.0,85000.0,85000.0,75000.0,80000.0,75000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,65000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,80000.0,130000.0,100000.0,78000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,54000.0,53000.0,52000.0,52000.0,52000.0,51000.0,53000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,46000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3200.0,2600.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,5000.0,3400.0,3100.0,3600.0,4600.0,16000.0,8000.0,6200.0,38000.0,22000.0,12500.0,8000.0,5500.0,9000.0,36000.0,21000.0,9000.0,6000.0,5200.0,4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,3800.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,3400.0,3600.0,4600.0,16000.0,8500.0,5300.0,4800.0,3500.0,3000.0,2400.0,2000.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2600.0,2400.0,2200.0,2500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2600.0,2500.0,2800.0,3100.0,3400.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3800.0,3700.0,3400.0,3800.0,4100.0,4400.0,4700.0,5000.0,5400.0,5700.0,5900.0,6300.0,6800.0,7200.0,7000.0,14000.0,10500.0,13000.0,38000.0,115000.0,65000.0,35000.0,22000.0,18000.0,26000.0,18000.0,14000.0,20000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,9500.0,14000.0,48000.0,21000.0,15000.0,10000.0,7500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,7500.0,8500.0,10000.0,14000.0,18000.0,13000.0,10000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2600.0,2800.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3800.0,5000.0,8500.0,14500.0,12000.0,7000.0,6000.0,6000.0,10000.0,28000.0,18000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,4000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3800.0,8500.0,6500.0,4200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,3400.0,4500.0,18000.0,22000.0,9000.0,5000.0,4200.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,4200.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1250.0,1280.0,1320.0,1300.0,1270.0,1240.0,1200.0,1180.0,1280.0,1330.0,1320.0,1350.0,1400.0,1380.0,1420.0,1400.0,1370.0,1350.0,1380.0,3200.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,3800.0,4000.0,1700.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,9000.0,4500.0,2500.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,3000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,1950.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,1750.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0]}},{"title":"Christie Hefner","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Christie Hefner\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[60947,25075,29303,34632,27075,29124,23041,28190,19788,25427,22243,26423,25988,36525,20613,55713,28265,25157,46368,28215,719669,140567,27833,24068,21997,13849,16052,14681,12688,12117,16388,15330,15499,13498,14590,13407,13285,10675,12729,11888,12186,11522,12916,16578,14238,18439,19981,17872,16785,14405,20242,23537,18486,16181,20092,20914,18832,19506,18322,17761,20583,19049,20318,31065,18124,18435,17482,16092,14150,17221,24130,35193,74754,88800,56900,31935,16578,15186,16760,32604,19392,16064,17249,28520,43215,33064,19249,21749,17402,21486,27181,24639,16251,15102,16481,15367,42833,25368,19538,14784,14490,12417,12196,12330,11779,16098,10938,11225,12970,10434,11183,11598,17991,11958,11585,11539,9045,9630,10074,9222],"flat_reference_value":16948.30961848611,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":null,"google/gemini-4-carbon":[11200.0,13400.0,14800.0,10900.0,10400.0,11100.0,10600.0,17500.0,11300.0,10800.0,10200.0,10500.0,11400.0,12600.0,11800.0,26500.0,15200.0,11400.0,10900.0,11200.0,285000.0,112000.0,24500.0,18200.0,15600.0,12800.0,12400.0,11900.0,11100.0,10600.0,10800.0,10500.0,13200.0,10400.0,9900.0,10200.0,10800.0,9700.0,10300.0,10900.0,9800.0,9500.0,9900.0,10100.0,9600.0,9400.0,11200.0,9800.0,10400.0,9600.0,9900.0,10800.0,10200.0,9400.0,9700.0,9500.0,9100.0,8900.0,8700.0,9200.0,9600.0,10800.0,9500.0,9100.0,8800.0,8600.0,8900.0,9200.0,8700.0,8500.0,8300.0,9400.0,38500.0,52000.0,26400.0,16800.0,11500.0,9800.0,9400.0,10600.0,9500.0,8900.0,8600.0,8800.0,9300.0,8500.0,8900.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,14500.0,13200.0,9100.0,8300.0,7900.0,8400.0,21500.0,14800.0,9600.0,8500.0,8100.0,7800.0,8000.0,7900.0,7600.0,7500.0,7300.0,7700.0,8200.0,7400.0,7800.0,7500.0,7300.0,7100.0,7400.0,7200.0,7600.0,7100.0,6900.0,7300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[13400.0,15200.0,12800.0,11500.0,11900.0,12300.0,11100.0,14600.0,11800.0,12100.0,11400.0,10900.0,11700.0,11200.0,12600.0,11500.0,10800.0,10400.0,10900.0,11300.0,62000.0,118000.0,24500.0,15800.0,14200.0,12900.0,13500.0,12100.0,11800.0,11300.0,11600.0,11000.0,13100.0,11700.0,10800.0,10500.0,11400.0,10600.0,11900.0,11200.0,10400.0,9800.0,10500.0,10200.0,11600.0,10800.0,10100.0,9700.0,10600.0,10100.0,12400.0,13800.0,12900.0,11200.0,10800.0,10500.0,11100.0,10300.0,9800.0,9500.0,10400.0,9900.0,10700.0,10200.0,9700.0,9400.0,9800.0,9600.0,10500.0,10100.0,9800.0,10300.0,21500.0,36800.0,27400.0,16200.0,12900.0,11400.0,10800.0,10200.0,10900.0,10400.0,9600.0,9400.0,10300.0,9700.0,10100.0,9500.0,9200.0,8800.0,9100.0,9400.0,9900.0,9300.0,8900.0,8700.0,9400.0,9100.0,9600.0,8900.0,8700.0,8400.0,8800.0,8600.0,9200.0,8900.0,8400.0,8200.0,8900.0,8500.0,8800.0,8300.0,8100.0,7900.0,8200.0,8000.0,8500.0,8200.0,7800.0,7600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[7400.0,6800.0,7000.0,6700.0,6600.0,6500.0,6800.0,6900.0,6400.0,6500.0,6300.0,6400.0,6800.0,6300.0,6500.0,6200.0,6100.0,6000.0,6300.0,6400.0,65000.0,22000.0,10000.0,8200.0,7800.0,6800.0,6600.0,6200.0,6000.0,5800.0,6000.0,6100.0,6500.0,5700.0,5500.0,5600.0,5900.0,5300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5300.0,5400.0,5300.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5600.0,5300.0,5900.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,24000.0,12000.0,8000.0,6000.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,4100.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[30000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,85000.0,50000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,420000.0,230000.0,50000.0,38000.0,36000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,24000.0,110000.0,140000.0,90000.0,50000.0,36000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,32000.0,27000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2700.0,2600.0,2900.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,3100.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,4300.0,3800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2900.0,34000.0,6200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,3000.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,11000.0,5200.0,3200.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2600.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,2100.0,3600.0,2700.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1900.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4123.0,3789.0,4105.0,3890.0,4012.0,3654.0,3780.0,3950.0,3875.0,4100.0,4250.0,3800.0,3900.0,3600.0,4050.0,3800.0,3950.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,26400.0,13200.0,6800.0,5200.0,4800.0,4300.0,4600.0,4200.0,4300.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,4350.0,4000.0,3800.0,3500.0,3800.0,3200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3350.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3800.0,4100.0,3900.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3150.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,3400.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2850.0,2700.0,9800.0,13500.0,8200.0,4800.0,3500.0,3100.0,3000.0,2950.0,3200.0,3050.0,2900.0,2750.0,3000.0,2750.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2650.0,2800.0,2750.0,2600.0,2450.0,5800.0,4200.0,3200.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2350.0,2600.0,2300.0,2500.0,2350.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2250.0,2400.0,2350.0,2250.0,2100.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,5900.0,5700.0,5500.0,5300.0,5100.0,5400.0,5800.0,6500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,6000.0,8500.0,5800.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,32000.0,58000.0,12000.0,7000.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,4100.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,12000.0,18000.0,9000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4600.0,7500.0,5500.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,5200.0,4800.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2100.0,1950.0,2050.0,1900.0,1850.0,1750.0,1650.0,1700.0,1850.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,2200.0,2050.0,2150.0,2000.0,1950.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,28000.0,18000.0,6500.0,3500.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,1950.0,1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1550.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1500.0,5200.0,4200.0,3000.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1450.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1075.0,1030.0,1130.0,1185.0,1100.0,1155.0,1120.0,1085.0,1175.0,1550.0,1265.0,1220.0,1020.0,975.0,1070.0,1125.0,1040.0,1090.0,1050.0,1280.0,19500.0,7800.0,2350.0,2850.0,930.0,890.0,950.0,1950.0,950.0,990.0,970.0,940.0,1020.0,1000.0,1095.0,1055.0,865.0,830.0,910.0,950.0,880.0,925.0,1480.0,875.0,945.0,925.0,1015.0,980.0,815.0,780.0,850.0,900.0,830.0,875.0,850.0,825.0,895.0,875.0,960.0,925.0,760.0,1750.0,1250.0,840.0,775.0,815.0,790.0,765.0,830.0,815.0,895.0,860.0,3150.0,1750.0,750.0,1480.0,725.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,780.0,760.0,835.0,805.0,660.0,635.0,700.0,735.0,675.0,710.0,690.0,670.0,725.0,710.0,780.0,1780.0,625.0,600.0,660.0,690.0,635.0,670.0,650.0,630.0,685.0,1280.0,735.0,710.0,565.0,545.0,600.0,630.0,580.0,610.0,590.0,570.0,620.0,605.0,665.0,640.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[5200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5900.0,5300.0,5700.0,5100.0,6900.0,5900.0,6200.0,5500.0,4700.0,8600.0,7300.0,6800.0,6500.0,6200.0,6600.0,6000.0,6500.0,52000.0,26000.0,14000.0,8000.0,6800.0,5900.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,4900.0,5700.0,5100.0,4800.0,4300.0,5900.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,3900.0,4600.0,4700.0,5500.0,5700.0,5500.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4400.0,4700.0,4500.0,6300.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,7600.0,5200.0,4700.0,4300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4700.0,30000.0,15000.0,8600.0,6200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,3900.0,5300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,4300.0,6900.0,4500.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3600.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[142000.0,133000.0,145000.0,151000.0,149000.0,158000.0,165000.0,158000.0,166000.0,174000.0,187000.0,193000.0,181000.0,173000.0,186000.0,191000.0,187000.0,195000.0,202000.0,284000.0,790000.0,370000.0,226000.0,302000.0,211000.0,194000.0,286000.0,238000.0,204000.0,184000.0,174000.0,168000.0,192000.0,178000.0,214000.0,192000.0,176000.0,165000.0,179000.0,187000.0,218000.0,202000.0,181000.0,173000.0,214000.0,184000.0,208000.0,187000.0,176000.0,166000.0,193000.0,213000.0,229000.0,234000.0,241000.0,226000.0,215000.0,195000.0,225000.0,203000.0,190000.0,176000.0,192000.0,184000.0,198000.0,203000.0,211000.0,199000.0,218000.0,189000.0,214000.0,194000.0,177000.0,163000.0,178000.0,169000.0,183000.0,187000.0,194000.0,181000.0,199000.0,176000.0,201000.0,184000.0,207000.0,181000.0,192000.0,183000.0,194000.0,209000.0,216000.0,198000.0,204000.0,185000.0,213000.0,195000.0,181000.0,168000.0,182000.0,173000.0,186000.0,192000.0,196000.0,187000.0,202000.0,186000.0,227000.0,1380000.0,505000.0,325000.0,276000.0,248000.0,288000.0,330000.0,306000.0,260000.0,249000.0,234000.0,251000.0,283000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,4200.0,2200.0,1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1500.0,1700.0,1300.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[240.0,220.0,255.0,760.0,280.0,260.0,245.0,270.0,250.0,265.0,285.0,340.0,285.0,270.0,310.0,820.0,330.0,305.0,295.0,315.0,300.0,325.0,390.0,15800.0,4900.0,1850.0,1120.0,970.0,820.0,760.0,720.0,740.0,700.0,730.0,800.0,3300.0,1320.0,810.0,700.0,780.0,650.0,610.0,570.0,590.0,540.0,560.0,620.0,2300.0,820.0,900.0,1750.0,930.0,720.0,650.0,600.0,630.0,560.0,580.0,640.0,1950.0,790.0,540.0,470.0,630.0,490.0,430.0,400.0,415.0,380.0,400.0,440.0,1500.0,560.0,420.0,370.0,490.0,400.0,360.0,335.0,345.0,320.0,335.0,370.0,1200.0,480.0,360.0,320.0,430.0,350.0,320.0,300.0,310.0,290.0,305.0,330.0,980.0,430.0,860.0,470.0,530.0,390.0,350.0,325.0,335.0,305.0,320.0,350.0,960.0,460.0,330.0,300.0,420.0,340.0,310.0,290.0,300.0,280.0,295.0,320.0,890.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[850.0,780.0,820.0,790.0,900.0,850.0,880.0,910.0,870.0,940.0,920.0,1000.0,1050.0,980.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,28000.0,9000.0,3500.0,2200.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1700.0,1450.0,1350.0,1250.0,1300.0,1200.0,1250.0,1150.0,1250.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1400.0,1350.0,1250.0,1450.0,1550.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,4200.0,3200.0,2200.0,1800.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1650.0,1600.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1700.0,1650.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1650.0,1600.0,1750.0,1650.0,1600.0,1750.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1150.0,1080.0,1120.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,940.0,900.0,1000.0,1020.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1200.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,870.0,9800.0,3800.0,1900.0,1300.0,1250.0,1000.0,1050.0,980.0,930.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,880.0,900.0,880.0,860.0,900.0,870.0,880.0,830.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,800.0,790.0,800.0,780.0,820.0,800.0,850.0,830.0,800.0,780.0,770.0,760.0,800.0,790.0,800.0,810.0,830.0,800.0,820.0,790.0,770.0,750.0,740.0,730.0,780.0,760.0,770.0,760.0,800.0,770.0,780.0,750.0,730.0,720.0,700.0,700.0,740.0,730.0,740.0,730.0,760.0,740.0,750.0,720.0,700.0,690.0,680.0,670.0,780.0,720.0,710.0,700.0,730.0,1000.0,1500.0,1100.0,900.0,800.0,760.0,740.0,760.0,730.0,720.0,710.0,700.0,680.0,690.0,660.0,650.0,640.0,630.0,620.0,680.0,650.0,640.0,630.0]}},{"title":"Santa Catarina (state)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Santa Catarina (state)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[8547,7438,7473,8074,8038,8050,7827,11736,7322,8163,27553,17510,9699,8742,9476,8432,9010,8090,8340,8557,7893,10068,10229,8824,8787,8461,10290,9728,9864,11821,12242,10069,9597,11919,9351,9199,10111,8527,9471,8329,8781,9539,9406,9603,8561,9165,9456,10200,9522,8777,11926,12521,11435,9223,10595,9709,8596,9138,9897,10575,10471,10644,11128,10495,11179,11606,15576,11690,10057,9811,10111,11255,11580,9484,10202,10101,11099,10391,11707,11579,11092,16089,15868,13773,13788,11173,11899,11519,11764,11449,11619,11364,10604,10619,11422,11458,13129,12071,12442,11903,13841,11644,11513,11674,12276,10854,10919,11228,11994,10708,11895,10667,11178,15350,12119,10758,11382,11328,12406,13554],"flat_reference_value":17003.86783786027,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[11800.0,10800.0,10400.0,9900.0,10300.0,10100.0,10600.0,10500.0,10100.0,10500.0,14500.0,14000.0,12500.0,11200.0,11000.0,10500.0,10800.0,10500.0,11100.0,10900.0,10600.0,11000.0,10800.0,11600.0,13200.0,11700.0,11400.0,10800.0,11200.0,10900.0,11500.0,11300.0,11300.0,12500.0,11300.0,12100.0,13700.0,12100.0,11900.0,11300.0,11600.0,11300.0,12000.0,11800.0,11500.0,11900.0,11700.0,12500.0,14100.0,12400.0,12000.0,10300.0,10800.0,11200.0,12400.0,11900.0,11800.0,12200.0,11900.0,12700.0,14300.0,12600.0,12400.0,11800.0,12400.0,11800.0,12500.0,12400.0,12100.0,12500.0,12200.0,13000.0,14800.0,13000.0,12800.0,12200.0,12600.0,12300.0,13000.0,12900.0,12700.0,14000.0,14200.0,14200.0,15300.0,13400.0,13200.0,15100.0,13000.0,12700.0,13400.0,13200.0,12900.0,14300.0,13400.0,14100.0,15800.0,13900.0,13600.0,13000.0,13900.0,13100.0,13800.0,13600.0,13300.0,13700.0,13400.0,14300.0,16100.0,14100.0,13900.0,13200.0,13600.0,13300.0,14000.0,13800.0,13500.0,13900.0,13600.0,14500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[13200.0,12400.0,12100.0,11500.0,11600.0,11200.0,12000.0,13500.0,11800.0,12200.0,16800.0,19400.0,13800.0,12600.0,12500.0,11700.0,11900.0,11300.0,12100.0,12000.0,11600.0,12400.0,12200.0,12700.0,13900.0,12800.0,12600.0,11800.0,11700.0,11400.0,12200.0,12100.0,12000.0,16200.0,13100.0,13000.0,14200.0,13100.0,12900.0,12100.0,12000.0,11600.0,12500.0,12400.0,12100.0,12800.0,12500.0,13300.0,14500.0,13400.0,11800.0,10900.0,11200.0,11900.0,13800.0,12300.0,11900.0,12200.0,12400.0,12800.0,13600.0,12500.0,13100.0,12300.0,12200.0,11800.0,12600.0,12400.0,12000.0,12500.0,12300.0,13100.0,14100.0,12900.0,12800.0,12000.0,12100.0,11700.0,12500.0,12400.0,12300.0,16900.0,15800.0,13500.0,14600.0,13300.0,13000.0,14800.0,12200.0,11800.0,12600.0,12300.0,11900.0,12900.0,12400.0,13000.0,14000.0,12800.0,12400.0,11700.0,17200.0,12500.0,12100.0,11800.0,11500.0,12100.0,11800.0,12500.0,13500.0,12300.0,11900.0,11200.0,11100.0,10800.0,11500.0,11300.0,11000.0,11600.0,11400.0,12100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[7120.0,6840.0,7310.0,6980.0,7150.0,6820.0,7540.0,8920.0,7240.0,7090.0,11450.0,15230.0,9840.0,7650.0,7890.0,7420.0,7580.0,7210.0,7830.0,7690.0,7350.0,7710.0,7480.0,7320.0,7810.0,7190.0,7640.0,7510.0,7380.0,7720.0,8050.0,7940.0,8310.0,10850.0,8420.0,7680.0,8150.0,7420.0,7890.0,7610.0,7750.0,7340.0,8120.0,8040.0,7780.0,7910.0,7560.0,7430.0,8020.0,7580.0,8940.0,10320.0,9780.0,8510.0,8740.0,8390.0,8120.0,8050.0,7860.0,7690.0,8190.0,7540.0,8320.0,8110.0,8460.0,7920.0,8380.0,8150.0,7940.0,8070.0,7730.0,7580.0,8250.0,7490.0,8120.0,7880.0,7950.0,7620.0,8090.0,8240.0,8670.0,10620.0,9180.0,7830.0,8340.0,7610.0,8190.0,12850.0,8620.0,7980.0,8320.0,8160.0,8040.0,9410.0,8750.0,7720.0,8280.0,7690.0,8040.0,7810.0,8150.0,7620.0,8210.0,8090.0,7840.0,8350.0,7910.0,7650.0,8140.0,7520.0,7980.0,7760.0,7890.0,7530.0,8050.0,7920.0,7710.0,7950.0,7680.0,7510.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,52000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,23000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,22000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,21000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,24000.0,20000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,18000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25500.0,28000.0,25000.0,25500.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,24500.0,26000.0,24500.0,25500.0,24000.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23500.0,25500.0,23500.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,25000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23500.0,27000.0,24500.0,22500.0,25000.0,23000.0,24500.0,23500.0,24000.0,23000.0,23500.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23500.0,22500.0,24500.0,22500.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23500.0,24000.0,23500.0,22500.0,23000.0,22500.0,22500.0,24000.0,22000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22500.0,21500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,21500.0,21000.0,22500.0,20500.0,21500.0,20500.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,21000.0,20500.0,24500.0,23500.0,21500.0,23500.0,20500.0,21500.0,21500.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20000.0,21500.0,21500.0,20500.0,22000.0,20500.0,21000.0,20500.0,24500.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20500.0,21000.0,25000.0,21500.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[8600.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,7400.0,7600.0,9600.0,8200.0,7400.0,14800.0,52000.0,8800.0,7900.0,7400.0,7100.0,7000.0,7200.0,7300.0,7000.0,7100.0,7400.0,7800.0,9100.0,9200.0,8300.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,9600.0,10400.0,8100.0,8000.0,9900.0,8400.0,9200.0,8600.0,8100.0,7500.0,7200.0,7100.0,7500.0,7900.0,7300.0,7200.0,7400.0,7600.0,8700.0,8300.0,7800.0,11200.0,16800.0,17200.0,14800.0,12800.0,11000.0,9900.0,9300.0,8800.0,9800.0,10600.0,9900.0,12400.0,11800.0,10600.0,9600.0,9000.0,8600.0,8500.0,8600.0,8400.0,9300.0,9400.0,8800.0,8200.0,8100.0,8300.0,8100.0,8300.0,8700.0,9200.0,11500.0,10200.0,12500.0,9800.0,8700.0,8200.0,27500.0,11200.0,8800.0,8600.0,8200.0,8300.0,8200.0,11800.0,9600.0,9200.0,8600.0,8100.0,8300.0,12800.0,9400.0,8500.0,8100.0,8200.0,8400.0,8100.0,9100.0,8700.0,8100.0,7700.0,7600.0,7500.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,7600.0,7700.0,7500.0,8400.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[6842.0,6410.0,5438.0,5311.0,4893.0,5027.0,5150.0,5304.0,5567.0,5421.0,13400.0,10850.0,8100.0,6544.0,5872.0,5480.0,5305.0,5156.0,5593.0,5432.0,5891.0,5726.0,6184.0,7055.0,7421.0,6987.0,5920.0,5776.0,5331.0,5489.0,5635.0,5792.0,5944.0,6523.0,6238.0,7314.0,7842.0,7051.0,6283.0,5812.0,5669.0,5514.0,5958.0,5824.0,6301.0,6128.0,6597.0,7522.0,8210.0,7392.0,8234.0,7805.0,7246.0,5941.0,6098.0,6267.0,6423.0,6589.0,6741.0,7912.0,8613.0,7745.0,6890.0,6382.0,6205.0,6057.0,6542.0,6391.0,6876.0,6724.0,7231.0,8258.0,8672.0,8143.0,6924.0,6735.0,6221.0,6384.0,6581.0,6712.0,6935.0,7589.0,7284.0,8521.0,9114.0,8196.0,7287.0,6763.0,6562.0,6410.0,6925.0,6778.0,7312.0,8942.0,7648.0,8735.0,9240.0,8312.0,7385.0,6859.0,7824.0,6653.0,6861.0,7018.0,7227.0,7394.0,7582.0,8871.0,9345.0,8427.0,7492.0,6958.0,6743.0,6589.0,7115.0,6964.0,7481.0,7326.0,7859.0,8973.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[19400.0,18700.0,16200.0,15300.0,14800.0,15300.0,16100.0,17300.0,15900.0,16200.0,17100.0,19500.0,20500.0,19600.0,17100.0,16200.0,15600.0,16200.0,17100.0,15700.0,16200.0,17100.0,17900.0,20500.0,21600.0,20800.0,18100.0,17200.0,16600.0,19200.0,21500.0,16700.0,17200.0,18600.0,19000.0,21700.0,22800.0,22000.0,19100.0,18100.0,17500.0,18100.0,19100.0,17600.0,18100.0,19100.0,20100.0,22900.0,24100.0,23100.0,25000.0,21000.0,18200.0,17600.0,18600.0,17100.0,17700.0,18700.0,20200.0,23600.0,24200.0,23000.0,20600.0,19500.0,18900.0,19900.0,21200.0,19000.0,19600.0,20600.0,21600.0,24700.0,25900.0,24800.0,21600.0,20500.0,19800.0,20500.0,21600.0,19900.0,20500.0,21600.0,24600.0,28100.0,27100.0,25900.0,22600.0,21500.0,20800.0,21500.0,22600.0,20800.0,23800.0,22600.0,23800.0,27200.0,28300.0,27100.0,23600.0,22400.0,24200.0,25000.0,23600.0,21800.0,22500.0,23600.0,24800.0,28400.0,29500.0,28300.0,24600.0,23400.0,22600.0,23400.0,24600.0,22700.0,23400.0,24600.0,25800.0,29600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2250.0,2160.0,1890.0,1800.0,1764.0,1710.0,1944.0,1764.0,1800.0,1890.0,1836.0,2070.0,2313.0,2220.0,1943.0,1850.0,1813.0,1758.0,1998.0,1813.0,1850.0,1943.0,1887.0,2128.0,2375.0,2280.0,1995.0,1900.0,1862.0,1805.0,2052.0,1862.0,1900.0,3000.0,1938.0,2185.0,2438.0,2340.0,2048.0,1950.0,1911.0,1853.0,2106.0,1911.0,1950.0,2048.0,1989.0,2243.0,2500.0,2400.0,2250.0,2100.0,2050.0,1900.0,2160.0,1960.0,2000.0,2100.0,2040.0,2300.0,2563.0,2460.0,2153.0,2050.0,2009.0,1948.0,2214.0,2009.0,2050.0,2153.0,2091.0,2358.0,2625.0,2520.0,2205.0,2100.0,2058.0,1995.0,2268.0,2058.0,2100.0,3300.0,2142.0,2415.0,2688.0,2580.0,2258.0,2150.0,2107.0,2043.0,2322.0,2107.0,3000.0,2800.0,2193.0,2473.0,2750.0,2640.0,2310.0,2200.0,2600.0,2090.0,2376.0,2156.0,2200.0,2310.0,2244.0,2530.0,2813.0,2700.0,2363.0,2250.0,2205.0,2138.0,2430.0,2205.0,2250.0,2363.0,2295.0,2588.0],"meta/muse-ember":[41480.0,39780.0,37060.0,33320.0,31620.0,30940.0,33915.0,44982.0,39491.0,43010.0,70414.0,57596.0,42944.0,41184.0,42205.0,34496.0,32736.0,32032.0,33440.0,34496.0,35552.0,38720.0,42972.0,42592.0,44530.0,42705.0,39785.0,35770.0,40734.0,41519.0,39876.0,35770.0,47925.0,60225.0,43764.0,44165.0,66868.0,44226.0,41202.0,37044.0,35154.0,34398.0,35910.0,37044.0,38178.0,41580.0,41202.0,45738.0,48190.0,48526.0,60277.0,50323.0,40409.0,37742.0,37525.0,56130.0,47874.0,43450.0,53819.0,47795.0,49044.0,47034.0,59154.0,51215.0,41125.0,36582.0,38190.0,47275.0,50753.0,44220.0,43818.0,48642.0,48556.0,46566.0,45551.0,39004.0,37014.0,36218.0,37810.0,42904.0,54267.0,67859.0,52058.0,48158.0,79056.0,54493.0,44145.0,61520.0,41432.0,42383.0,38475.0,39690.0,55222.0,64598.0,50767.0,58806.0,50996.0,48906.0,50118.0,51205.0,66086.0,45646.0,39710.0,40964.0,50662.0,62073.0,63787.0,55636.0,60048.0,50076.0,46652.0,44041.0,39804.0,44791.0,48792.0,46138.0,58358.0,61204.0,55982.0,51788.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[15000.0,13800.0,11400.0,10800.0,10800.0,11400.0,13200.0,12000.0,11400.0,13600.0,12000.0,14400.0,16000.0,14700.0,12200.0,11500.0,11500.0,12200.0,14100.0,12800.0,12200.0,13400.0,12800.0,15400.0,17000.0,15600.0,12900.0,12200.0,13500.0,12900.0,15000.0,13600.0,12900.0,16400.0,13600.0,16300.0,18100.0,16700.0,13800.0,13100.0,13100.0,13800.0,16000.0,14500.0,13800.0,15200.0,14500.0,17400.0,20600.0,19000.0,18800.0,20000.0,18600.0,15700.0,18200.0,16500.0,15700.0,18700.0,16500.0,19800.0,22500.0,20700.0,17100.0,16200.0,16200.0,17100.0,31700.0,23400.0,17100.0,18900.0,18000.0,21600.0,21500.0,19800.0,16300.0,15500.0,15500.0,16300.0,18900.0,17200.0,16300.0,20200.0,18900.0,20600.0,20300.0,18600.0,15400.0,14600.0,14600.0,18500.0,17800.0,16200.0,19200.0,22100.0,17800.0,19400.0,19000.0,17500.0,14400.0,13700.0,17100.0,14400.0,16700.0,15200.0,14400.0,17200.0,15200.0,18200.0,17800.0,16300.0,13500.0,12800.0,12800.0,13500.0,15600.0,14200.0,13500.0,14900.0,14200.0,17000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[49218.0,50134.0,47206.0,44891.0,44105.0,45342.0,47896.0,52674.0,48125.0,46983.0,45517.0,49642.0,48406.0,49122.0,46077.0,43884.0,43215.0,44538.0,46391.0,45204.0,44193.0,44708.0,43965.0,48127.0,48952.0,49481.0,46325.0,44118.0,43724.0,48639.0,54117.0,49873.0,46321.0,46809.0,45672.0,50438.0,51286.0,50714.0,47308.0,44725.0,44191.0,46872.0,48109.0,45733.0,44482.0,45067.0,44639.0,49372.0,50214.0,49788.0,56146.0,47935.0,45618.0,44591.0,46128.0,45072.0,43781.0,44936.0,44583.0,48846.0,49672.0,49903.0,47341.0,44512.0,43876.0,44538.0,45947.0,45124.0,44176.0,44982.0,44715.0,49208.0,50391.0,50742.0,47608.0,44826.0,44392.0,44983.0,47261.0,46135.0,47718.0,62485.0,59217.0,53546.0,52733.0,53118.0,49476.0,46527.0,45832.0,46694.0,48315.0,47106.0,94736.0,82458.0,62184.0,58437.0,53508.0,53791.0,50062.0,46915.0,81347.0,60428.0,49376.0,48204.0,51283.0,49847.0,49162.0,55036.0,56284.0,57913.0,53642.0,50189.0,49073.0,50817.0,52641.0,51318.0,54176.0,52705.0,51483.0,56392.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[24000.0,24500.0,28000.0,28500.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29500.0,29500.0,30000.0,29500.0,26000.0,25000.0,25500.0,29500.0,29000.0,30500.0,29500.0,28000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31500.0,31000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26500.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31500.0,29500.0,32500.0,32500.0,34000.0,33000.0,28500.0,27500.0,28000.0,32500.0,33000.0,34000.0,32500.0,31000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,29500.0,28500.0,29000.0,33500.0,35500.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,36500.0,37000.0,36500.0,31500.0,30500.0,31500.0,36500.0,37000.0,37500.0,36500.0,35000.0,37500.0,37500.0,38000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31500.0,36500.0,36000.0,36500.0,35000.0,33500.0,36000.0,36000.0,38500.0,36500.0,31500.0,30000.0,30500.0,35000.0,34500.0,35500.0,34000.0,32500.0,35000.0,35500.0,36500.0,35000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29500.0,33500.0,33500.0,36000.0,33000.0,31500.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33500.0,28500.0,27500.0,28000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32500.0,31000.0,29500.0,32000.0,32000.0,32500.0,31000.0,26500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[12000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8800.0,9500.0,11500.0,15500.0,9300.0,10000.0,9400.0,11500.0,12800.0,11700.0,10200.0,9700.0,9200.0,10100.0,12300.0,10900.0,9500.0,10700.0,9800.0,11800.0,13800.0,14700.0,11600.0,11000.0,10600.0,13100.0,15900.0,12800.0,11200.0,16300.0,12100.0,14500.0,14200.0,14900.0,11900.0,11300.0,10900.0,12400.0,14600.0,13300.0,12900.0,13700.0,12400.0,14600.0,17300.0,16200.0,18700.0,17000.0,14400.0,16000.0,20000.0,16800.0,15000.0,17600.0,17100.0,19500.0,20300.0,16800.0,14900.0,14200.0,13500.0,15300.0,18700.0,16000.0,14400.0,15900.0,14700.0,17100.0,18500.0,20000.0,16200.0,15300.0,14700.0,16200.0,19300.0,17000.0,15200.0,22000.0,19500.0,20300.0,18900.0,16600.0,14700.0,14000.0,13300.0,15100.0,17600.0,15700.0,14100.0,15900.0,14900.0,17200.0,16200.0,16300.0,14500.0,13900.0,14900.0,15500.0,18200.0,15800.0,14200.0,19000.0,15200.0,17600.0,16300.0,16000.0,13900.0,13100.0,12600.0,14500.0,17400.0,15200.0,13600.0,16500.0,14300.0,16700.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3720.0,3150.0,3200.0,3060.0,3120.0,3300.0,3400.0,3950.0,3200.0,3150.0,3200.0,3750.0,3450.0,2950.0,3000.0,2870.0,2920.0,2980.0,3100.0,3050.0,2900.0,2950.0,3000.0,3400.0,3380.0,2900.0,2950.0,2880.0,3050.0,3820.0,3320.0,3020.0,2900.0,2950.0,2920.0,3350.0,3220.0,2750.0,2780.0,2680.0,2720.0,2750.0,2860.0,2790.0,2650.0,2700.0,2730.0,3100.0,3050.0,2640.0,2980.0,3520.0,3350.0,3030.0,2950.0,2880.0,2750.0,2800.0,2780.0,3150.0,2920.0,2480.0,2720.0,2650.0,2540.0,2500.0,2580.0,2500.0,2420.0,2460.0,2480.0,2820.0,2800.0,2380.0,2450.0,2370.0,2420.0,2490.0,2580.0,2480.0,2400.0,2620.0,3090.0,2950.0,2860.0,2380.0,2450.0,4250.0,3350.0,2650.0,2670.0,2580.0,2480.0,2550.0,2600.0,2920.0,2860.0,2350.0,2420.0,2520.0,3050.0,2700.0,2580.0,2500.0,2400.0,2430.0,2460.0,2810.0,2700.0,2230.0,2290.0,2200.0,2240.0,2260.0,2350.0,2270.0,2180.0,2220.0,2250.0,2580.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4140.0,3960.0,3600.0,3420.0,3420.0,3420.0,3600.0,3528.0,3600.0,3600.0,4100.0,4000.0,3910.0,3740.0,3400.0,3230.0,3230.0,3230.0,3400.0,3332.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3672.0,3795.0,3630.0,3300.0,3135.0,3135.0,3135.0,3300.0,3234.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3564.0,3565.0,3410.0,3100.0,2945.0,2945.0,2945.0,3100.0,3038.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3348.0,3450.0,3300.0,3300.0,2850.0,2850.0,2850.0,3000.0,2940.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3240.0,3220.0,3080.0,2800.0,2660.0,2660.0,2660.0,2800.0,2744.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,3024.0,2990.0,2860.0,2600.0,2470.0,2470.0,2470.0,2600.0,2548.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2808.0,2760.0,2640.0,2400.0,2280.0,2280.0,2280.0,2400.0,2352.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2592.0,2530.0,2420.0,2200.0,2090.0,2090.0,2090.0,2200.0,2156.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2376.0,2300.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,1960.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2160.0]}},{"title":"Ilya Prigogine","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Ilya Prigogine\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[4877,4787,4957,4684,4656,4152,4013,4495,4455,4871,4969,4898,6009,4875,5958,5178,5227,4251,4298,4447,4650,5240,4906,4619,4943,4640,5146,4704,4718,4111,4491,4105,4167,4920,4431,4665,4755,4252,4574,4410,4338,3906,4156,4098,4968,5026,4629,4467,5040,4512,4864,6116,5282,3978,3767,4058,3924,4278,3780,3904,4334,4096,4451,4112,3900,3373,3130,3630,3450,4019,3482,3602,3927,3408,3507,3538,3421,3438,3272,3340,3300,4181,3903,3675,4530,3850,4293,3695,4757,8209,4884,6917,4616,5133,3886,3917,4395,3789,3920,3847,3709,3289,3370,3499,3330,3942,3850,3623,3960,3509,4119,3831,3681,3371,3450,3404,3512,4176,3987,3838],"flat_reference_value":17083.464918708123,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[5800.0,5200.0,5700.0,5500.0,5100.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,5200.0,6400.0,5900.0,4900.0,155000.0,8600.0,6800.0,6000.0,5600.0,5000.0,4700.0,4800.0,5500.0,6900.0,6100.0,5100.0,6000.0,5300.0,5900.0,5600.0,5300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4700.0,5300.0,6500.0,5900.0,5000.0,5900.0,5200.0,5800.0,5600.0,5300.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,5500.0,6600.0,6000.0,5100.0,6100.0,5400.0,5700.0,5400.0,5300.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5700.0,6900.0,6200.0,5300.0,6300.0,5600.0,6200.0,5900.0,5600.0,5100.0,4900.0,5100.0,5800.0,7000.0,6400.0,5400.0,6600.0,5700.0,6300.0,6000.0,5700.0,5200.0,5000.0,5200.0,5900.0,7100.0,6500.0,5500.0,6600.0,5800.0,6400.0,6100.0,5800.0,5300.0,5100.0,5300.0,6000.0,7200.0,6600.0,5600.0,6800.0,5900.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,5400.0,5200.0,5400.0,6100.0,7300.0,6700.0,5700.0,6900.0,6000.0,6600.0,6300.0,6000.0,5500.0,5300.0,5500.0,6200.0,7400.0,6800.0,5800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[14800.0,14900.0,15800.0,15600.0,15200.0,12900.0,12200.0,12500.0,14400.0,16400.0,15900.0,14100.0,18600.0,14800.0,16100.0,15500.0,15300.0,13000.0,12400.0,12600.0,14500.0,16600.0,15800.0,14000.0,14900.0,14400.0,15900.0,15600.0,15100.0,12700.0,12300.0,12500.0,14300.0,16300.0,15600.0,13900.0,14800.0,14500.0,16000.0,15700.0,15300.0,12900.0,12500.0,12800.0,14600.0,16700.0,15800.0,14200.0,15100.0,14700.0,14900.0,16400.0,16600.0,14300.0,13800.0,14600.0,16800.0,17500.0,16400.0,15000.0,15800.0,15000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15700.0,13400.0,12900.0,13100.0,14800.0,20800.0,16300.0,14500.0,15200.0,14300.0,15600.0,15100.0,14800.0,12600.0,12100.0,12300.0,13900.0,16100.0,15000.0,13500.0,14400.0,13800.0,14900.0,14300.0,14200.0,16800.0,12900.0,17900.0,14100.0,15400.0,14200.0,12800.0,13500.0,12900.0,13900.0,13600.0,13300.0,11400.0,11000.0,11200.0,12600.0,14600.0,13400.0,12100.0,12800.0,12200.0,13300.0,13000.0,12700.0,10900.0,10500.0,10700.0,12000.0,13900.0,12800.0,11600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[14200.0,15300.0,15800.0,15100.0,13900.0,11400.0,10800.0,11200.0,13500.0,15700.0,16100.0,12500.0,18400.0,16200.0,16500.0,15200.0,14100.0,11800.0,11100.0,11500.0,13900.0,16200.0,16600.0,12900.0,14800.0,15500.0,16100.0,15400.0,13800.0,11600.0,10900.0,11400.0,13700.0,15900.0,16300.0,12600.0,14600.0,15100.0,15700.0,15000.0,13500.0,11300.0,10600.0,11100.0,13300.0,15400.0,15800.0,12200.0,14100.0,14800.0,17200.0,18500.0,16900.0,12800.0,11900.0,12200.0,14200.0,16100.0,16400.0,13000.0,14500.0,15200.0,15600.0,14900.0,13400.0,11200.0,10500.0,10900.0,13100.0,15200.0,15500.0,12100.0,13900.0,14600.0,15100.0,14400.0,12900.0,10800.0,10100.0,10500.0,12600.0,14700.0,15100.0,11800.0,13500.0,14200.0,14700.0,14000.0,12600.0,10500.0,9800.0,10200.0,12300.0,14400.0,14800.0,11500.0,13200.0,13900.0,14400.0,13700.0,12300.0,10200.0,9500.0,9900.0,12000.0,14100.0,14500.0,11200.0,12900.0,13600.0,14100.0,13400.0,12000.0,9900.0,9200.0,9600.0,11700.0,13800.0,14200.0,10900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[14200.0,14500.0,15300.0,14600.0,14100.0,12400.0,11900.0,11800.0,13200.0,14700.0,15000.0,12500.0,13300.0,13500.0,14200.0,13500.0,13100.0,11500.0,11100.0,11000.0,12300.0,13600.0,13900.0,11600.0,12400.0,12500.0,13200.0,12600.0,12200.0,10700.0,10300.0,10200.0,11400.0,12600.0,12900.0,10800.0,11800.0,11900.0,12500.0,11900.0,11500.0,10100.0,9800.0,9700.0,10900.0,12000.0,12300.0,10300.0,11500.0,11700.0,12700.0,13000.0,12500.0,10800.0,10300.0,10100.0,10900.0,11800.0,12000.0,10000.0,10800.0,10900.0,11400.0,10900.0,10500.0,9200.0,8900.0,8900.0,9900.0,10900.0,11200.0,9400.0,9800.0,9900.0,10400.0,9900.0,9600.0,8400.0,8100.0,8100.0,9000.0,9900.0,10200.0,8500.0,9200.0,9300.0,9800.0,9300.0,9000.0,7900.0,7600.0,7600.0,8500.0,9400.0,9600.0,8000.0,8700.0,8800.0,9200.0,8800.0,8500.0,7500.0,7200.0,7200.0,8000.0,8800.0,9100.0,7600.0,8200.0,8300.0,8700.0,8300.0,8000.0,7000.0,6800.0,6800.0,7600.0,8300.0,8600.0,7200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[19500.0,19000.0,19800.0,19000.0,19200.0,17000.0,16200.0,16000.0,17500.0,18800.0,19000.0,17500.0,23500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18200.0,18500.0,16500.0,15800.0,15800.0,17000.0,18200.0,18300.0,16800.0,18500.0,17200.0,18200.0,17500.0,17800.0,15800.0,15200.0,15200.0,16300.0,17500.0,17500.0,16000.0,17500.0,16300.0,17300.0,16500.0,16800.0,15000.0,14600.0,14600.0,15500.0,16500.0,16500.0,15300.0,16800.0,15800.0,16800.0,18500.0,18800.0,16800.0,16000.0,15800.0,15800.0,16500.0,16500.0,15800.0,17000.0,15800.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,14200.0,14000.0,14000.0,14300.0,15200.0,15200.0,14300.0,15500.0,14500.0,15300.0,14500.0,14600.0,13300.0,13200.0,13300.0,13600.0,14500.0,14500.0,13800.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14300.0,14500.0,13300.0,13300.0,13400.0,13500.0,14300.0,14200.0,13500.0,14800.0,14000.0,14600.0,14000.0,14300.0,13200.0,13300.0,13500.0,13500.0,14200.0,14000.0,13600.0,14800.0,13800.0,14600.0,14200.0,14500.0,13300.0,13300.0,13500.0,13500.0,14200.0,14000.0,13500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6000.0,6200.0,6400.0,6100.0,5900.0,5500.0,5100.0,5200.0,5900.0,6300.0,6200.0,5400.0,8600.0,7000.0,6600.0,6400.0,6100.0,5700.0,5300.0,5400.0,6100.0,6500.0,6300.0,5500.0,6100.0,6400.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,6000.0,6300.0,6200.0,5400.0,5900.0,6200.0,6300.0,6100.0,5900.0,5400.0,5000.0,5100.0,5800.0,6100.0,6000.0,5200.0,5900.0,6100.0,6600.0,6400.0,6000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5300.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,5300.0,5800.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,5700.0,5300.0,4900.0,5000.0,5700.0,6000.0,5900.0,5100.0,5600.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,5500.0,5800.0,5700.0,4900.0,5300.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5800.0,6200.0,5200.0,6000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,4600.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5100.0,4900.0,4600.0,4200.0,4300.0,4900.0,5200.0,5100.0,4400.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,4400.0,4000.0,4100.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,4200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2854.0,3120.0,3285.0,2950.0,2760.0,2185.0,1840.0,1965.0,2730.0,3155.0,3080.0,2140.0,135800.0,3560.0,3310.0,2895.0,2705.0,2120.0,1795.0,1920.0,2650.0,3040.0,2955.0,2075.0,2780.0,3015.0,3180.0,2840.0,2620.0,2085.0,1725.0,1880.0,2595.0,3010.0,2925.0,2020.0,2705.0,2950.0,3105.0,2765.0,2550.0,2010.0,1680.0,1815.0,2520.0,2935.0,2850.0,1975.0,2650.0,2890.0,3450.0,3300.0,2950.0,2150.0,1750.0,1850.0,2650.0,3000.0,2950.0,2100.0,2600.0,2850.0,3050.0,2750.0,2500.0,1980.0,1650.0,1780.0,2500.0,2880.0,2800.0,1950.0,2550.0,2780.0,2950.0,2650.0,2420.0,1900.0,1600.0,1720.0,2420.0,2780.0,2700.0,1880.0,2480.0,2700.0,2870.0,2570.0,2350.0,1840.0,1550.0,1670.0,2350.0,2700.0,2620.0,1820.0,2400.0,2620.0,2790.0,2500.0,2280.0,1780.0,1500.0,1620.0,2280.0,2620.0,2540.0,1760.0,2330.0,2540.0,2710.0,2420.0,2210.0,1720.0,1450.0,1560.0,2200.0,2540.0,2460.0,1700.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[9900.0,9500.0,9850.0,9400.0,9050.0,7900.0,7400.0,7750.0,9700.0,10250.0,10100.0,8150.0,20000.0,11700.0,10550.0,10000.0,9600.0,8450.0,7900.0,8250.0,10350.0,10950.0,10750.0,8650.0,11000.0,10600.0,11000.0,10400.0,10000.0,8800.0,8200.0,8600.0,10800.0,11400.0,11200.0,9000.0,11350.0,10900.0,11350.0,10700.0,10300.0,9050.0,8450.0,8850.0,11100.0,11750.0,11550.0,9250.0,12300.0,11850.0,14150.0,14550.0,12900.0,9850.0,9200.0,9650.0,12100.0,12750.0,12550.0,10100.0,12750.0,12300.0,12750.0,12050.0,11600.0,10200.0,9500.0,9950.0,12550.0,13200.0,13000.0,10450.0,12950.0,12500.0,12950.0,12250.0,11800.0,10400.0,9700.0,10150.0,12750.0,13450.0,13200.0,10600.0,13850.0,13350.0,13850.0,13100.0,12600.0,11100.0,10350.0,10850.0,13600.0,14350.0,14100.0,11350.0,14750.0,14200.0,14750.0,13950.0,14750.0,11800.0,11000.0,11500.0,15900.0,15300.0,15000.0,12050.0,15400.0,14850.0,15400.0,14550.0,14000.0,12300.0,11500.0,12050.0,15100.0,15950.0,15700.0,12600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[756.0,720.0,756.0,756.0,720.0,648.0,612.0,612.0,720.0,792.0,792.0,684.0,41200.0,760.0,798.0,798.0,760.0,684.0,646.0,646.0,760.0,836.0,836.0,722.0,861.0,820.0,861.0,861.0,820.0,738.0,697.0,697.0,820.0,902.0,902.0,779.0,893.0,850.0,893.0,893.0,850.0,765.0,723.0,723.0,850.0,935.0,935.0,808.0,998.0,950.0,998.0,998.0,950.0,855.0,808.0,808.0,950.0,1045.0,1045.0,903.0,966.0,920.0,966.0,966.0,920.0,828.0,782.0,782.0,920.0,1012.0,1012.0,874.0,903.0,860.0,903.0,903.0,860.0,774.0,731.0,731.0,860.0,946.0,946.0,817.0,840.0,800.0,840.0,840.0,900.0,720.0,680.0,680.0,800.0,880.0,880.0,760.0,788.0,750.0,788.0,788.0,750.0,675.0,638.0,638.0,750.0,825.0,825.0,713.0,756.0,720.0,756.0,756.0,720.0,648.0,612.0,612.0,720.0,792.0,792.0,684.0],"meta/muse-ember":[6700.0,6900.0,7300.0,7100.0,7400.0,5900.0,4900.0,5200.0,7300.0,7600.0,7200.0,5800.0,9500.0,7200.0,7500.0,7300.0,8500.0,6100.0,5000.0,5300.0,7500.0,7900.0,7400.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,7200.0,7000.0,7500.0,5800.0,4800.0,5100.0,7200.0,7500.0,7300.0,5700.0,6600.0,6800.0,7200.0,7000.0,7300.0,5800.0,4800.0,5100.0,7100.0,7500.0,7100.0,5700.0,7300.0,7600.0,8800.0,8900.0,8900.0,6500.0,5300.0,5700.0,8000.0,8300.0,7900.0,6400.0,7200.0,7500.0,7900.0,7700.0,8000.0,6300.0,5200.0,5600.0,7900.0,8200.0,7800.0,6300.0,6400.0,6800.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,5700.0,4700.0,5000.0,7000.0,7400.0,7000.0,5600.0,6200.0,6500.0,6800.0,6700.0,7000.0,5500.0,4600.0,6300.0,7300.0,7100.0,6800.0,5500.0,6100.0,6400.0,6700.0,6500.0,6800.0,5400.0,4500.0,4800.0,6700.0,7000.0,6700.0,5400.0,6000.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6700.0,5300.0,4400.0,4700.0,6600.0,6900.0,6600.0,5300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4270.0,4030.0,4100.0,3990.0,3880.0,3500.0,3230.0,3340.0,3990.0,4100.0,3990.0,3560.0,5730.0,4450.0,4540.0,4410.0,4280.0,3860.0,3570.0,3700.0,4410.0,4540.0,4410.0,3930.0,5160.0,4880.0,4970.0,4830.0,4690.0,4230.0,3910.0,4050.0,4830.0,4970.0,4830.0,4310.0,5730.0,5410.0,5510.0,5360.0,5200.0,4690.0,4340.0,4490.0,5360.0,5510.0,5360.0,4770.0,6520.0,6150.0,6640.0,6580.0,6270.0,5500.0,4930.0,5100.0,6090.0,6260.0,6090.0,5430.0,7190.0,6780.0,6910.0,6720.0,6530.0,5890.0,5440.0,5630.0,6720.0,6910.0,6720.0,5990.0,7980.0,7910.0,8600.0,8950.0,9410.0,9280.0,9350.0,10310.0,13050.0,14200.0,14170.0,12630.0,17720.0,17490.0,19440.0,20480.0,21420.0,31740.0,21680.0,57420.0,30710.0,25920.0,22050.0,16850.0,18900.0,16960.0,16420.0,15120.0,14280.0,12140.0,10540.0,12320.0,13020.0,12960.0,12180.0,10480.0,12740.0,11750.0,11790.0,11290.0,10800.0,9430.0,8570.0,8720.0,10580.0,11070.0,10580.0,9030.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[8450.0,7020.0,7310.0,7080.0,8050.0,6730.0,5940.0,6240.0,7080.0,7310.0,6820.0,6510.0,31800.0,8170.0,7540.0,7760.0,14600.0,7060.0,6260.0,6490.0,7310.0,7590.0,7190.0,6830.0,9280.0,7340.0,7460.0,7180.0,8090.0,6970.0,6190.0,6320.0,7220.0,7350.0,7060.0,6740.0,8930.0,7090.0,7250.0,6960.0,7910.0,6760.0,5960.0,6210.0,7010.0,7230.0,6890.0,6570.0,8880.0,7590.0,9150.0,9720.0,9340.0,8040.0,7180.0,7360.0,8420.0,8650.0,8210.0,7870.0,9420.0,7370.0,7960.0,7710.0,8620.0,7350.0,6520.0,6680.0,7570.0,7750.0,7430.0,7220.0,9010.0,7250.0,8190.0,7650.0,8350.0,7170.0,6280.0,6560.0,7480.0,7690.0,7360.0,7170.0,8820.0,7030.0,7360.0,7190.0,11150.0,7430.0,6540.0,6650.0,7540.0,7720.0,7390.0,7150.0,8560.0,6930.0,7170.0,6980.0,8150.0,6820.0,5960.0,6180.0,7040.0,7260.0,6940.0,6720.0,8470.0,6820.0,7030.0,6870.0,7980.0,6650.0,5830.0,6080.0,6960.0,7180.0,6870.0,6640.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2450.0,2400.0,2000.0,1850.0,1850.0,2300.0,2450.0,2450.0,2100.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2450.0,2450.0,2050.0,1900.0,1900.0,2300.0,2450.0,2450.0,2050.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,1950.0,1800.0,1800.0,2200.0,2400.0,2400.0,2000.0,2250.0,2350.0,2450.0,2350.0,2350.0,1900.0,1750.0,1750.0,2150.0,2350.0,2350.0,1950.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,1950.0,1800.0,1800.0,2200.0,2350.0,2350.0,1950.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,1900.0,1750.0,1750.0,2150.0,2300.0,2300.0,1900.0,2150.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2250.0,1850.0,1700.0,1700.0,2100.0,2250.0,2250.0,1850.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,1800.0,1650.0,1650.0,2050.0,2200.0,2200.0,1800.0,2050.0,2150.0,2250.0,2150.0,2150.0,1750.0,1600.0,1600.0,2000.0,2150.0,2150.0,1750.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,1700.0,1550.0,1550.0,1950.0,2100.0,2100.0,1700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[8200.0,8900.0,9600.0,7400.0,8150.0,5900.0,5200.0,4800.0,10400.0,8550.0,7800.0,5950.0,8700.0,9450.0,10250.0,7950.0,8650.0,6300.0,5550.0,5100.0,11050.0,9100.0,8350.0,6350.0,9650.0,10450.0,11350.0,8800.0,9550.0,7000.0,6150.0,5700.0,12250.0,10100.0,9200.0,7050.0,10600.0,11500.0,12450.0,9650.0,10400.0,7700.0,6800.0,6250.0,13500.0,11150.0,10200.0,7750.0,12300.0,13400.0,16200.0,13100.0,13900.0,9600.0,8300.0,7600.0,16600.0,13700.0,12600.0,9800.0,13800.0,15000.0,16300.0,12700.0,13600.0,10000.0,8900.0,8200.0,17600.0,14500.0,13200.0,10100.0,14600.0,15900.0,17100.0,13300.0,14400.0,10600.0,9300.0,8600.0,18400.0,15100.0,13900.0,10600.0,15600.0,16800.0,18200.0,14200.0,15500.0,11400.0,9900.0,9200.0,19600.0,16300.0,14900.0,11400.0,14800.0,15900.0,17100.0,13400.0,14600.0,10800.0,9000.0,8300.0,18000.0,14900.0,13700.0,10500.0,13600.0,14700.0,15900.0,12400.0,13400.0,9900.0,8600.0,8000.0,17100.0,14200.0,13000.0,9900.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[862.0,914.0,951.0,881.0,850.0,810.0,775.0,790.0,870.0,915.0,902.0,780.0,835.0,890.0,923.0,860.0,842.0,790.0,761.0,776.0,851.0,896.0,878.0,759.0,806.0,852.0,889.0,833.0,810.0,764.0,742.0,751.0,827.0,864.0,849.0,735.0,782.0,833.0,865.0,808.0,794.0,741.0,720.0,737.0,809.0,851.0,832.0,718.0,810.0,850.0,946.0,913.0,852.0,795.0,773.0,790.0,860.0,899.0,876.0,766.0,774.0,819.0,852.0,801.0,785.0,738.0,715.0,727.0,802.0,842.0,820.0,706.0,748.0,796.0,830.0,773.0,758.0,708.0,690.0,704.0,779.0,817.0,800.0,685.0,724.0,770.0,799.0,748.0,731.0,687.0,669.0,682.0,754.0,789.0,771.0,663.0,705.0,748.0,783.0,727.0,715.0,670.0,651.0,665.0,736.0,772.0,749.0,647.0,687.0,729.0,761.0,710.0,696.0,653.0,635.0,648.0,716.0,750.0,730.0,628.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2310.0,2420.0,2530.0,2420.0,2310.0,1980.0,1760.0,1760.0,2420.0,2530.0,2420.0,1870.0,2205.0,2310.0,2415.0,2310.0,2205.0,1890.0,1680.0,1680.0,2310.0,2415.0,2310.0,1785.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,1800.0,1600.0,1600.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,1700.0,1995.0,2090.0,2185.0,2090.0,1995.0,1710.0,1520.0,1520.0,2090.0,2185.0,2090.0,1615.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,1800.0,1600.0,1600.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,1700.0,1890.0,1980.0,2070.0,1980.0,1890.0,1620.0,1440.0,1440.0,1980.0,2070.0,1980.0,1530.0,1785.0,1870.0,1955.0,1870.0,1785.0,1530.0,1360.0,1360.0,1870.0,1955.0,1870.0,1445.0,1680.0,1760.0,1840.0,1760.0,1680.0,1440.0,1280.0,1280.0,1760.0,1840.0,1760.0,1360.0,1470.0,1540.0,1610.0,1540.0,1470.0,1260.0,1120.0,1120.0,1540.0,1610.0,1540.0,1190.0,1310.0,1375.0,1440.0,1375.0,1310.0,1125.0,1000.0,1000.0,1375.0,1440.0,1375.0,1060.0]}},{"title":"University of Göttingen","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"University of Göttingen\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[8502,8957,9362,8315,8727,8087,7700,8349,10584,12903,10432,9133,10033,9654,11012,9753,9939,8849,8441,8729,9634,9963,9447,15850,10174,9578,11257,12023,11207,9277,10903,10041,10234,10948,10458,10525,10813,9428,10125,9653,9997,8872,11355,9982,9976,12882,10654,10603,10847,9699,10155,11952,10916,9713,11111,20278,9876,11621,11016,11583,11594,10029,11217,10967,10635,9998,11733,11231,10830,12683,10835,10211,11775,11775,12013,11658,12969,10567,12231,11295,10295,11498,11179,16056,13312,10720,12550,13098,25819,25952,186240,64817,24323,16999,30494,33370,33029,31524,36343,22585,18150,17981,16397,14837,14714,14717,14967,15680,17102,14726,16971,18013,14942,16244,17524,16680,15287,14663,14288,15530],"flat_reference_value":16987.156873594548,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[13800.0,13200.0,14400.0,13900.0,13500.0,12300.0,11400.0,11900.0,13300.0,15200.0,14600.0,12300.0,14100.0,13500.0,14800.0,14200.0,13900.0,12600.0,11700.0,12200.0,13700.0,15700.0,14900.0,12600.0,14500.0,13900.0,15100.0,14500.0,14200.0,12900.0,12000.0,12500.0,14000.0,16100.0,15300.0,12900.0,14800.0,14200.0,15500.0,14900.0,14500.0,13200.0,12300.0,12800.0,14300.0,16500.0,15600.0,13200.0,15100.0,14500.0,15700.0,15400.0,15100.0,13700.0,12700.0,13200.0,14700.0,16900.0,16000.0,13600.0,15500.0,14900.0,16100.0,15400.0,15000.0,13700.0,12700.0,13200.0,14900.0,17200.0,16200.0,13700.0,15600.0,15000.0,16300.0,15600.0,15200.0,13900.0,12900.0,13400.0,15000.0,17300.0,16300.0,13800.0,15800.0,15100.0,16500.0,15800.0,15400.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,15200.0,17500.0,16500.0,13900.0,16000.0,15400.0,16700.0,16000.0,15600.0,14200.0,13200.0,13700.0,15400.0,17800.0,16700.0,14100.0,16200.0,15500.0,16900.0,16200.0,15800.0,14400.0,13300.0,13900.0,15600.0,18000.0,16900.0,14300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[19400.0,18100.0,19200.0,18500.0,18300.0,17100.0,17600.0,18200.0,19800.0,20900.0,19700.0,17400.0,19800.0,17900.0,19500.0,18400.0,18600.0,17200.0,17800.0,18300.0,19900.0,21200.0,20100.0,17600.0,20100.0,18000.0,19600.0,18700.0,18400.0,16900.0,17500.0,18100.0,19600.0,20800.0,19500.0,17300.0,19900.0,18200.0,19700.0,18600.0,18800.0,17400.0,20600.0,18500.0,20100.0,21400.0,20000.0,17800.0,20300.0,18600.0,17200.0,16800.0,17500.0,16900.0,17400.0,18100.0,19300.0,20400.0,19600.0,18100.0,20500.0,18400.0,19800.0,18900.0,18700.0,17300.0,17700.0,18300.0,19700.0,20700.0,19500.0,17600.0,19600.0,17700.0,19100.0,18100.0,18300.0,16800.0,17400.0,17900.0,19200.0,20300.0,19100.0,17500.0,19400.0,17600.0,19000.0,18000.0,18800.0,17900.0,54200.0,63800.0,31500.0,23600.0,24800.0,21900.0,22400.0,21100.0,29700.0,19800.0,18400.0,16700.0,17200.0,17400.0,18300.0,19100.0,17900.0,16100.0,17800.0,16000.0,17300.0,16500.0,16400.0,15200.0,15600.0,15900.0,17100.0,17900.0,16800.0,15100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[20400.0,19800.0,21300.0,20100.0,19500.0,17200.0,15800.0,16100.0,18200.0,22400.0,23100.0,17900.0,19700.0,19100.0,20800.0,19400.0,18900.0,16500.0,15200.0,15600.0,17800.0,21900.0,22500.0,17300.0,19100.0,18400.0,20200.0,18800.0,18300.0,15900.0,14700.0,15000.0,17100.0,20900.0,21600.0,16600.0,18500.0,17900.0,19500.0,18200.0,17800.0,15400.0,14200.0,14500.0,16600.0,20200.0,20900.0,16100.0,17800.0,17300.0,20500.0,22100.0,19800.0,16200.0,14800.0,15200.0,17000.0,19600.0,20400.0,16400.0,17500.0,16900.0,18700.0,17600.0,17100.0,14900.0,13800.0,14100.0,15900.0,19200.0,19800.0,15500.0,16800.0,16200.0,17900.0,16700.0,16300.0,14200.0,13300.0,13600.0,15200.0,18400.0,18900.0,14900.0,16400.0,15800.0,17300.0,16200.0,15900.0,14600.0,29800.0,32500.0,20800.0,19500.0,19100.0,15200.0,16200.0,15600.0,17100.0,15900.0,15500.0,13600.0,12900.0,13200.0,14800.0,17600.0,18100.0,14300.0,15700.0,15100.0,16600.0,15400.0,15000.0,13200.0,12400.0,12700.0,14300.0,17100.0,17600.0,13900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[18400.0,17700.0,18900.0,18500.0,18000.0,16700.0,15800.0,15600.0,17400.0,19800.0,19800.0,16500.0,17300.0,16700.0,17900.0,17500.0,17000.0,15800.0,15000.0,14800.0,16500.0,18700.0,18700.0,15600.0,16300.0,15700.0,16800.0,16500.0,16000.0,14900.0,14100.0,13900.0,15500.0,17600.0,17600.0,14700.0,15300.0,14700.0,15800.0,15500.0,15000.0,14000.0,13200.0,13100.0,14600.0,16500.0,16500.0,13800.0,14800.0,14200.0,15600.0,15800.0,15000.0,13500.0,12800.0,12600.0,14100.0,15900.0,15900.0,13300.0,13800.0,13200.0,14200.0,13900.0,13500.0,12600.0,11900.0,11700.0,13100.0,14900.0,14900.0,12400.0,12800.0,12300.0,13100.0,12900.0,12500.0,11600.0,11000.0,10900.0,12100.0,13800.0,13800.0,11500.0,12200.0,11800.0,12600.0,12400.0,12000.0,11200.0,10600.0,10400.0,11600.0,13200.0,13200.0,11000.0,11200.0,10800.0,11600.0,11300.0,11000.0,10200.0,9700.0,9600.0,10700.0,12100.0,12100.0,10100.0,10200.0,9800.0,10400.0,10100.0,9800.0,9100.0,8600.0,8500.0,9400.0,10700.0,10600.0,8900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[29500.0,28500.0,28800.0,28000.0,28200.0,26500.0,25800.0,25500.0,26500.0,28500.0,28800.0,26000.0,28500.0,26800.0,28000.0,26500.0,27000.0,25500.0,25000.0,25000.0,25500.0,27500.0,27500.0,25000.0,27500.0,25500.0,26500.0,25500.0,25500.0,24000.0,23500.0,23500.0,24000.0,25500.0,25500.0,23000.0,25500.0,23500.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,22500.0,22500.0,22500.0,23000.0,24500.0,24500.0,22500.0,24500.0,22500.0,23000.0,24500.0,25000.0,23500.0,23000.0,22500.0,22500.0,23500.0,23000.0,22000.0,23500.0,21500.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20500.0,20500.0,21500.0,21500.0,20000.0,21500.0,19500.0,20500.0,19500.0,20000.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,19500.0,19500.0,18500.0,20000.0,18500.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,36000.0,32000.0,22500.0,21000.0,20500.0,19500.0,21000.0,19500.0,20500.0,19500.0,19500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,19500.0,18000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[33.0,27.0,26.0,27.0,25.0,25.0,22.0,21.0,24.0,31.0,27.0,23.0,31.0,26.0,25.0,26.0,24.0,24.0,21.0,20.0,24.0,30.0,26.0,23.0,30.0,25.0,24.0,25.0,24.0,23.0,20.0,19.0,23.0,29.0,25.0,22.0,29.0,25.0,23.0,25.0,23.0,22.0,22.0,19.0,22.0,28.0,25.0,21.0,30.0,25.0,36.0,34.0,28.0,26.0,23.0,21.0,26.0,30.0,27.0,23.0,28.0,24.0,22.0,24.0,22.0,21.0,19.0,18.0,21.0,31.0,24.0,20.0,27.0,23.0,21.0,23.0,21.0,20.0,18.0,17.0,20.0,26.0,23.0,19.0,27.0,23.0,22.0,23.0,21.0,21.0,132.0,55.0,33.0,26.0,23.0,20.0,28.0,24.0,26.0,23.0,21.0,23.0,19.0,18.0,21.0,26.0,23.0,20.0,28.0,24.0,23.0,24.0,22.0,21.0,19.0,18.0,21.0,27.0,24.0,20.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9284.0,8761.0,9743.0,8422.0,8156.0,7189.0,5893.0,6521.0,9012.0,10345.0,9210.0,6714.0,8931.0,8745.0,9256.0,8098.0,7864.0,6852.0,5820.0,6033.0,8722.0,9987.0,8894.0,6421.0,8493.0,8102.0,8834.0,7715.0,7498.0,6543.0,5389.0,5927.0,8276.0,9481.0,8490.0,6148.0,8321.0,7794.0,8512.0,7431.0,7189.0,9254.0,5183.0,5714.0,7953.0,9128.0,8176.0,5923.0,8112.0,7745.0,10984.0,9785.0,7021.0,6124.0,5038.0,5562.0,7734.0,8892.0,7956.0,5763.0,7784.0,7289.0,7912.0,6923.0,6718.0,5874.0,4821.0,5334.0,7428.0,8523.0,7612.0,5519.0,7542.0,7061.0,7703.0,6724.0,6528.0,5698.0,4689.0,5187.0,7215.0,8284.0,7395.0,5362.0,7228.0,6743.0,7356.0,6421.0,6237.0,5448.0,4472.0,4953.0,6892.0,7914.0,7073.0,5124.0,6891.0,6432.0,7024.0,6128.0,5943.0,5192.0,4268.0,4721.0,6583.0,7552.0,6748.0,4887.0,6672.0,6224.0,6791.0,5928.0,5754.0,5023.0,4128.0,4572.0,6361.0,7305.0,6527.0,4732.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[10800.0,10100.0,10700.0,10300.0,10000.0,9200.0,8000.0,8700.0,11700.0,12100.0,11100.0,9300.0,11400.0,10600.0,11200.0,10800.0,10500.0,9700.0,8600.0,9000.0,12300.0,12700.0,11800.0,9800.0,11900.0,11100.0,11700.0,11500.0,11000.0,10100.0,8900.0,9500.0,12800.0,13300.0,12300.0,10200.0,12300.0,11700.0,12100.0,11800.0,11400.0,10400.0,9300.0,9800.0,13300.0,13700.0,12800.0,10600.0,13200.0,12300.0,15200.0,14500.0,13400.0,12100.0,10100.0,10400.0,14200.0,14700.0,13600.0,11300.0,12800.0,12200.0,12600.0,12300.0,11900.0,10900.0,9700.0,10200.0,13800.0,14300.0,13300.0,11100.0,12600.0,12000.0,12400.0,12100.0,11700.0,10700.0,9600.0,10000.0,13600.0,14000.0,13100.0,10900.0,12900.0,12300.0,12700.0,12400.0,12000.0,11000.0,9800.0,10200.0,13900.0,14400.0,13400.0,11200.0,13300.0,12400.0,13000.0,12800.0,12200.0,11300.0,10000.0,10500.0,14300.0,14800.0,13700.0,11500.0,13500.0,12800.0,13200.0,13000.0,12400.0,11400.0,10200.0,10700.0,14500.0,15000.0,14000.0,11700.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[6448.0,6262.0,6200.0,6076.0,6138.0,5828.0,5642.0,5828.0,6448.0,7192.0,6386.0,5828.0,6344.0,6161.0,6100.0,5978.0,6039.0,5734.0,5551.0,5734.0,6344.0,7076.0,6283.0,5734.0,6240.0,6060.0,6000.0,5880.0,5940.0,5640.0,5460.0,5640.0,6240.0,6960.0,6180.0,5640.0,6136.0,7600.0,5900.0,5782.0,5841.0,5546.0,5369.0,5546.0,6136.0,6844.0,6077.0,5546.0,5928.0,5757.0,5700.0,5586.0,5643.0,5358.0,5187.0,5358.0,5928.0,6612.0,5871.0,5358.0,5824.0,5656.0,5600.0,5488.0,5544.0,5264.0,5096.0,5264.0,5824.0,9200.0,5768.0,5264.0,5720.0,5555.0,5500.0,5390.0,5445.0,5170.0,5005.0,5170.0,5720.0,6380.0,5665.0,5170.0,5512.0,5353.0,5300.0,5194.0,5247.0,4982.0,4823.0,4982.0,5512.0,6148.0,5459.0,4982.0,5304.0,5151.0,5100.0,4998.0,5049.0,4794.0,4641.0,4794.0,5304.0,5916.0,5253.0,4794.0,5096.0,4949.0,4900.0,4802.0,4851.0,4606.0,4459.0,4606.0,5096.0,5684.0,5047.0,4606.0],"meta/muse-ember":[4470.0,4255.0,4550.0,4775.0,4170.0,4350.0,3420.0,3455.0,5225.0,5320.0,4605.0,3835.0,4630.0,4410.0,4955.0,4900.0,4590.0,3880.0,3615.0,3655.0,5365.0,5735.0,4630.0,4180.0,4985.0,4470.0,5125.0,5275.0,4655.0,4220.0,3595.0,3895.0,5435.0,5935.0,5035.0,4280.0,5095.0,4850.0,5240.0,5445.0,5045.0,4225.0,3860.0,3940.0,5895.0,6000.0,5195.0,4420.0,5510.0,5140.0,7225.0,6640.0,5675.0,4525.0,4175.0,4260.0,6380.0,6690.0,5455.0,4975.0,5835.0,5230.0,6000.0,5990.0,5610.0,4790.0,4375.0,4420.0,6555.0,8850.0,5890.0,5010.0,5765.0,5490.0,6170.0,6100.0,5655.0,4830.0,4455.0,4545.0,6740.0,6930.0,5940.0,5050.0,5725.0,5135.0,5775.0,6060.0,5290.0,4800.0,4170.0,4515.0,6310.0,6885.0,5555.0,5020.0,5405.0,5145.0,5670.0,5605.0,5250.0,4530.0,4135.0,4180.0,6260.0,7090.0,5405.0,4880.0,6240.0,4900.0,5350.0,5610.0,4900.0,4445.0,3860.0,4180.0,5960.0,6125.0,5300.0,4555.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[27900.0,29700.0,31800.0,33300.0,32100.0,30900.0,28800.0,25800.0,30900.0,33900.0,31800.0,26700.0,30690.0,32670.0,34980.0,36630.0,35310.0,33990.0,31680.0,28380.0,33990.0,37290.0,45474.0,29370.0,33945.0,36135.0,38690.0,40515.0,39055.0,37595.0,35040.0,31390.0,37595.0,41245.0,38690.0,32485.0,37200.0,39600.0,42400.0,44400.0,42800.0,41200.0,38400.0,34400.0,41200.0,45200.0,42400.0,35600.0,37200.0,39600.0,51728.0,63048.0,56496.0,46144.0,40704.0,34400.0,41200.0,45200.0,42400.0,35600.0,34875.0,37125.0,39750.0,41625.0,40125.0,38625.0,36000.0,32250.0,38625.0,42375.0,39750.0,33375.0,31620.0,33660.0,38202.0,37740.0,36380.0,35020.0,32640.0,29240.0,35020.0,38420.0,36040.0,30260.0,29295.0,31185.0,33390.0,34965.0,33705.0,32445.0,30240.0,27090.0,32445.0,35595.0,33390.0,28035.0,31155.0,33165.0,35510.0,37185.0,35845.0,34505.0,32160.0,28810.0,34505.0,37855.0,35510.0,29815.0,33015.0,35145.0,37630.0,39405.0,37985.0,36565.0,34080.0,30530.0,36565.0,40115.0,37630.0,31595.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[18400.0,19100.0,20300.0,20900.0,23800.0,27600.0,22100.0,14700.0,19900.0,25400.0,23200.0,18900.0,19200.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,25500.0,29000.0,24500.0,15500.0,21300.0,26800.0,24400.0,19600.0,20100.0,21000.0,22200.0,23000.0,25800.0,29700.0,24100.0,16200.0,22100.0,28200.0,25300.0,20500.0,21000.0,21800.0,23300.0,24200.0,27400.0,31200.0,25400.0,17000.0,23400.0,30000.0,27000.0,21800.0,22500.0,23400.0,27500.0,28500.0,30400.0,34500.0,27700.0,18400.0,25000.0,32200.0,28700.0,22900.0,25000.0,25700.0,27300.0,27800.0,31200.0,35500.0,28000.0,18800.0,26700.0,34400.0,30200.0,23700.0,25000.0,25900.0,27800.0,32000.0,31600.0,36200.0,29000.0,19400.0,27500.0,35200.0,31000.0,24500.0,26200.0,27000.0,28800.0,29500.0,33000.0,38000.0,30000.0,20000.0,28800.0,37000.0,32000.0,25200.0,27000.0,27800.0,29800.0,30800.0,34200.0,39500.0,31200.0,20800.0,29700.0,38200.0,33200.0,25800.0,28000.0,28800.0,31000.0,32000.0,35800.0,41000.0,32400.0,21500.0,30700.0,39500.0,34000.0,26400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[42000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,44000.0,40000.0,37000.0,40000.0,46000.0,47000.0,39000.0,43000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,40000.0,37000.0,40000.0,46000.0,47000.0,39000.0,43000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,40000.0,37000.0,40000.0,46000.0,46000.0,38000.0,42000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,39000.0,36000.0,39000.0,45000.0,45000.0,37000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,46000.0,46000.0,44000.0,40000.0,37000.0,40000.0,45000.0,46000.0,38000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,39000.0,36000.0,39000.0,44000.0,44000.0,37000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,37000.0,35000.0,38000.0,43000.0,43000.0,36000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,42000.0,42000.0,35000.0,39000.0,38000.0,41000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,41000.0,41000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,40000.0,40000.0,33000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[10040.0,7900.0,8600.0,9700.0,9000.0,7500.0,6800.0,12100.0,12700.0,9400.0,7900.0,7200.0,10100.0,8300.0,9100.0,10400.0,9400.0,7900.0,7300.0,12900.0,13400.0,10100.0,8200.0,7800.0,10700.0,8700.0,9500.0,11000.0,9800.0,8200.0,7600.0,13600.0,14100.0,10400.0,8500.0,8100.0,11400.0,9200.0,10000.0,11300.0,16800.0,14600.0,8400.0,14200.0,14700.0,10800.0,8900.0,8600.0,11000.0,10200.0,11600.0,13100.0,12000.0,9700.0,9200.0,16400.0,17800.0,13000.0,10300.0,9500.0,10500.0,9100.0,10100.0,11600.0,10400.0,8600.0,8100.0,14800.0,15400.0,11600.0,9000.0,8600.0,11200.0,9400.0,10500.0,12300.0,10900.0,9000.0,8400.0,15900.0,16400.0,11900.0,9300.0,8800.0,11800.0,9900.0,11100.0,13000.0,11300.0,9400.0,8800.0,17200.0,17900.0,12500.0,9800.0,9200.0,12400.0,10300.0,11600.0,13800.0,12100.0,9900.0,9200.0,18600.0,19500.0,13200.0,10400.0,9700.0,13000.0,10800.0,12200.0,14500.0,15900.0,13400.0,10000.0,19800.0,20600.0,14000.0,11000.0,10400.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[4800.0,4550.0,4700.0,4400.0,4620.0,4300.0,4150.0,4650.0,5700.0,5350.0,4900.0,4450.0,4600.0,4350.0,4700.0,4500.0,4750.0,4400.0,4200.0,4700.0,5600.0,5200.0,4800.0,4350.0,4750.0,4500.0,4800.0,4550.0,4900.0,4450.0,4250.0,4850.0,5900.0,5400.0,5000.0,4500.0,4700.0,4450.0,4800.0,4600.0,4850.0,4500.0,4300.0,4900.0,5750.0,5350.0,4950.0,4450.0,4700.0,4500.0,4900.0,4600.0,4800.0,4400.0,4100.0,4600.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,4500.0,5400.0,5000.0,4600.0,4200.0,4350.0,4100.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,4450.0,5300.0,4950.0,4550.0,4100.0,4250.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4350.0,4050.0,3850.0,4400.0,5200.0,4850.0,4500.0,4050.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,3900.0,3750.0,4250.0,5000.0,4700.0,4350.0,3950.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,3800.0,4050.0,3750.0,3600.0,4100.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,3800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2520.0,2592.0,2592.0,2400.0,2328.0,2208.0,2040.0,2040.0,2520.0,2760.0,2688.0,2112.0,2415.0,2484.0,2484.0,2300.0,2231.0,2116.0,1955.0,1955.0,2415.0,2645.0,2576.0,2024.0,2363.0,2430.0,2430.0,2250.0,2183.0,2070.0,1913.0,1913.0,2363.0,2588.0,2520.0,1980.0,2258.0,2322.0,2322.0,2150.0,2086.0,1978.0,1828.0,1828.0,2258.0,2473.0,2408.0,1892.0,2100.0,2160.0,2160.0,2000.0,1940.0,1840.0,1700.0,1700.0,2100.0,2300.0,2240.0,1760.0,2153.0,2214.0,2214.0,2050.0,1989.0,1886.0,1743.0,1743.0,2153.0,2358.0,2296.0,1804.0,2100.0,2160.0,2160.0,2000.0,1940.0,1840.0,1700.0,1700.0,2100.0,2300.0,2240.0,1760.0,1995.0,2052.0,2052.0,1900.0,1843.0,1748.0,1615.0,1615.0,1995.0,2185.0,2128.0,1672.0,1838.0,1890.0,1890.0,1750.0,1698.0,1610.0,1488.0,1488.0,1838.0,2013.0,1960.0,1540.0,1733.0,1782.0,1782.0,1650.0,1601.0,1518.0,1403.0,1403.0,1733.0,1898.0,1848.0,1452.0]}},{"title":"Let Love In (Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds album)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Let Love In (Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds album)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[4000,4077,3972,3701,4634,4808,3979,4933,12056,5947,5278,5204,5985,5328,4710,4357,5473,4853,3886,4001,4555,6525,5845,5012,5497,4455,4617,5003,4404,5346,4933,3978,5321,5498,4175,4097,4666,4015,3944,4049,3624,3431,3838,4725,5051,10350,5430,4502,4692,4190,4448,6009,6061,4392,4996,4190,4000,4229,4678,5011,4696,4422,5837,4649,4037,3739,3609,3811,3857,4125,3684,3500,4589,3670,5365,4171,4136,4588,4360,4818,4124,3977,3634,3689,4147,3632,3887,3696,3833,3358,4155,3709,3856,4193,3840,3810,4143,3887,4825,5157,3724,3425,3491,5732,6783,6705,5679,3868,3889,3338,3360,4190,3825,2803,3129,3354,3096,3633,3578,3829],"flat_reference_value":17079.94217147754,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[3100.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,3400.0,5100.0,4200.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3200.0,3500.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3900.0,4500.0,4800.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,3500.0,3900.0,4100.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3400.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,5000.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3600.0,4300.0,3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,4200.0,4700.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3300.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4950.0,4520.0,4780.0,4690.0,4810.0,5240.0,4980.0,5420.0,10650.0,6480.0,5320.0,5040.0,5190.0,4610.0,4920.0,4780.0,5640.0,5180.0,4890.0,4760.0,5080.0,5340.0,5790.0,5620.0,5140.0,4480.0,4830.0,4670.0,4720.0,4650.0,4810.0,4690.0,4580.0,4940.0,4620.0,4590.0,4820.0,4350.0,4710.0,5180.0,4760.0,4590.0,4720.0,5190.0,5640.0,8350.0,5780.0,5020.0,4960.0,4540.0,4880.0,5260.0,5190.0,4870.0,5040.0,4820.0,4680.0,4790.0,4950.0,4760.0,4890.0,5380.0,5760.0,4820.0,4690.0,4480.0,4560.0,4490.0,4420.0,4870.0,4580.0,4460.0,5120.0,4680.0,5540.0,5480.0,6240.0,4920.0,4650.0,4510.0,4380.0,4490.0,4290.0,4180.0,4360.0,3910.0,4620.0,4180.0,4090.0,3980.0,4120.0,4040.0,3950.0,4160.0,4080.0,4540.0,4190.0,3820.0,4380.0,4320.0,4060.0,3940.0,4080.0,4960.0,6840.0,5190.0,4580.0,4050.0,4020.0,3610.0,3920.0,4280.0,4340.0,3890.0,3840.0,3790.0,3720.0,3860.0,3690.0,3640.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2120.0,1960.0,1840.0,1890.0,2580.0,2790.0,2210.0,2080.0,2740.0,2390.0,2180.0,2140.0,2190.0,1980.0,2040.0,1960.0,1910.0,1840.0,1810.0,1940.0,2080.0,2160.0,2540.0,2810.0,2380.0,2110.0,2060.0,2140.0,1990.0,1880.0,1840.0,1910.0,1990.0,2090.0,2040.0,2120.0,2160.0,1940.0,2010.0,2240.0,2030.0,1950.0,2020.0,2420.0,3120.0,3410.0,2780.0,2490.0,2290.0,2090.0,2240.0,2660.0,2480.0,2310.0,2390.0,2140.0,2040.0,2110.0,2140.0,2010.0,2110.0,2340.0,2380.0,2120.0,1990.0,1940.0,1890.0,1860.0,1980.0,2090.0,2030.0,2140.0,2210.0,2680.0,3520.0,3310.0,2590.0,2380.0,2120.0,2060.0,2010.0,2080.0,1960.0,1920.0,2040.0,1890.0,1940.0,1860.0,1810.0,1760.0,1790.0,1840.0,1910.0,1990.0,1940.0,1890.0,1940.0,1880.0,2040.0,3080.0,2420.0,2110.0,2140.0,2860.0,2690.0,2380.0,2130.0,2060.0,2090.0,1940.0,1980.0,1910.0,1860.0,1810.0,1840.0,1890.0,1940.0,1990.0,1930.0,1880.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,5600.0,5300.0,4300.0,4200.0,5000.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,5200.0,5000.0,4400.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4100.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3800.0,4200.0,4000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3900.0,4600.0,4400.0,3900.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[4600.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,5200.0,4900.0,4300.0,4300.0,6200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4800.0,4300.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,5400.0,6000.0,5400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4500.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4900.0,6000.0,6800.0,5300.0,4900.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,5400.0,5200.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,6500.0,6800.0,5200.0,6200.0,5000.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,4000.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,4700.0,4300.0,4300.0,3900.0,4100.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3900.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4300.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,6300.0,4800.0,4300.0,4100.0,6200.0,4600.0,4200.0,3800.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,6500.0,5900.0,4400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,2900.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,4900.0,4400.0,3500.0,3000.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2500.0,2700.0,3300.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2500.0,3100.0,5200.0,6500.0,4800.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2500.0,2700.0,2700.0,3600.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2400.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,3200.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,5000.0,3100.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2400.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1723.0,1618.0,1594.0,1542.0,1498.0,1521.0,1587.0,1764.0,2835.0,2389.0,1912.0,1684.0,1711.0,1492.0,1548.0,1443.0,1397.0,1362.0,1348.0,1395.0,1491.0,1447.0,1392.0,1284.0,1412.0,1248.0,1315.0,1267.0,1239.0,1214.0,1198.0,1241.0,1293.0,1276.0,1245.0,1158.0,1294.0,1153.0,1227.0,1191.0,1175.0,1149.0,1163.0,1218.0,1489.0,2234.0,1786.0,1392.0,1348.0,1297.0,1684.0,1823.0,1639.0,1447.0,1382.0,1356.0,1412.0,1389.0,1341.0,1275.0,1398.0,1243.0,1331.0,1287.0,1264.0,1238.0,1219.0,1257.0,1314.0,1298.0,1272.0,1189.0,1384.0,2127.0,2543.0,2318.0,1564.0,1432.0,1398.0,1421.0,1478.0,1763.0,1489.0,1327.0,1446.0,1372.0,1689.0,1423.0,1387.0,1359.0,1342.0,1388.0,1435.0,1417.0,1391.0,1298.0,1423.0,1358.0,1492.0,1924.0,1487.0,1439.0,1524.0,2317.0,2084.0,1673.0,1512.0,1389.0,1472.0,1318.0,1394.0,1357.0,1331.0,1294.0,1278.0,1312.0,1368.0,1345.0,1321.0,1214.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4100.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,4300.0,4200.0,3900.0,5800.0,10500.0,6800.0,5200.0,5600.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,4600.0,5000.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,5200.0,5800.0,4700.0,4400.0,4400.0,5400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,5200.0,4800.0,4700.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,5600.0,6400.0,12500.0,8200.0,7600.0,5800.0,5600.0,6200.0,6000.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5600.0,6400.0,6000.0,5400.0,6800.0,5800.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,6800.0,5800.0,5600.0,5300.0,6200.0,8200.0,7600.0,8000.0,6200.0,5800.0,5800.0,6000.0,6400.0,6000.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,5500.0,5700.0,5900.0,6500.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,5800.0,5900.0,6100.0,7200.0,6600.0,6400.0,9200.0,11200.0,8200.0,7200.0,7000.0,6400.0,6300.0,6800.0,6800.0,6600.0,7400.0,7600.0,6800.0,6600.0,7200.0,6800.0,6600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[620.0,580.0,640.0,610.0,650.0,600.0,630.0,680.0,1800.0,2600.0,1400.0,1000.0,900.0,820.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,800.0,820.0,900.0,850.0,830.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,820.0,780.0,800.0,760.0,780.0,800.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,830.0,850.0,820.0,860.0,900.0,1100.0,2400.0,1600.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1200.0,2200.0,3500.0,2800.0,1600.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1200.0,2000.0,2600.0,1600.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1944.0,1929.0,2112.0,2068.0,2091.0,1989.0,1968.0,2048.0,2902.0,2595.0,2088.0,1903.0,1803.0,1825.0,2017.0,1957.0,1939.0,1825.0,1880.0,1844.0,2197.0,2176.0,1976.0,1765.0,1657.0,1763.0,1799.0,1891.0,1746.0,1799.0,1728.0,1711.0,2042.0,2059.0,1814.0,1671.0,1710.0,1712.0,1856.0,1931.0,1765.0,2154.0,1941.0,1817.0,2240.0,2819.0,2339.0,1606.0,1600.0,1668.0,1998.0,2078.0,1806.0,1817.0,1635.0,1685.0,1896.0,1837.0,1931.0,1596.0,1595.0,1982.0,2474.0,2114.0,1715.0,1749.0,1663.0,1714.0,1909.0,1946.0,1782.0,1608.0,1581.0,1616.0,1839.0,2240.0,1836.0,1878.0,1665.0,1616.0,1892.0,1797.0,1892.0,1593.0,1584.0,1668.0,1719.0,1825.0,1771.0,1839.0,1701.0,1618.0,1932.0,1912.0,1788.0,1581.0,1721.0,1811.0,2478.0,2546.0,2170.0,1885.0,1918.0,1994.0,3233.0,3564.0,2692.0,1936.0,1802.0,2131.0,2310.0,2033.0,1938.0,2064.0,1990.0,1933.0,2440.0,2255.0,2075.0,1694.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[7950.0,7725.0,7950.0,7500.0,7500.0,9360.0,6900.0,6750.0,23175.0,25920.0,14715.0,8460.0,7208.0,7004.0,7208.0,6800.0,8160.0,7834.0,6256.0,6120.0,7004.0,8078.0,18530.0,8949.0,6572.0,6386.0,6572.0,6200.0,6200.0,5952.0,5704.0,5580.0,6386.0,6696.0,6758.0,5828.0,6996.0,10877.0,6996.0,6600.0,6600.0,6336.0,6072.0,5940.0,6798.0,18533.0,21582.0,8686.0,7738.0,7519.0,9673.0,9490.0,8395.0,7358.0,12089.0,7227.0,7519.0,7884.0,7957.0,6862.0,6996.0,10877.0,8395.0,6600.0,6600.0,6336.0,6072.0,5940.0,6798.0,7128.0,7194.0,6204.0,7738.0,24061.0,32500.0,24820.0,20440.0,25229.0,13432.0,11115.0,9785.0,10260.0,10355.0,8930.0,9540.0,9270.0,9540.0,9000.0,9000.0,8640.0,8280.0,8100.0,9270.0,9720.0,9810.0,8460.0,9964.0,23237.0,27899.0,15040.0,9400.0,9024.0,8648.0,21996.0,17428.0,10152.0,10246.0,8836.0,9328.0,9064.0,9328.0,8800.0,8800.0,8448.0,8096.0,7920.0,9064.0,9504.0,14388.0,21507.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2530.0,2700.0,2750.0,3325.0,2915.0,2695.0,3085.0,2960.0,2695.0,2805.0,2970.0,2830.0,2250.0,2400.0,2450.0,2945.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2330.0,2400.0,2500.0,2645.0,2520.0,2070.0,2205.0,2250.0,2575.0,2385.0,2205.0,2120.0,2140.0,2205.0,2300.0,2430.0,2320.0,2120.0,2250.0,2300.0,3130.0,2440.0,2250.0,2160.0,2190.0,2250.0,3200.0,3880.0,2920.0,2020.0,2160.0,2200.0,2520.0,2330.0,2160.0,2070.0,2090.0,2160.0,2240.0,3030.0,2270.0,2070.0,2205.0,2250.0,2475.0,2785.0,2455.0,2120.0,2140.0,2405.0,2300.0,2730.0,2320.0,2070.0,2205.0,2250.0,2475.0,2385.0,2205.0,2120.0,2140.0,2205.0,2300.0,2430.0,2320.0,2250.0,2400.0,2450.0,3000.0,2600.0,2400.0,2900.0,3830.0,3050.0,2500.0,3200.0,2520.0,2530.0,2700.0,2750.0,4325.0,2920.0,2700.0,3090.0,3410.0,3200.0,2805.0,3670.0,3130.0,2550.0,2750.0,2850.0,3050.0,2900.0,2750.0,2900.0,3500.0,4300.0,3550.0,3100.0,3000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[520.0,540.0,520.0,530.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,560.0,820.0,700.0,640.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,560.0,540.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,520.0,540.0,560.0,560.0,560.0,560.0,540.0,560.0,540.0,540.0,520.0,520.0,520.0,560.0,600.0,580.0,580.0,580.0,560.0,580.0,560.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,560.0,600.0,680.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,600.0,620.0,640.0,620.0,720.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,620.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,580.0,580.0,560.0,560.0,580.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,620.0,660.0,640.0,620.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,600.0,640.0,660.0,640.0,620.0,620.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,560.0,580.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,620.0,640.0,620.0,680.0,720.0,680.0,660.0,640.0,640.0,620.0,620.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,580.0,580.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1550.0,1450.0,1280.0,1220.0,1260.0,1210.0,1080.0,1050.0,1180.0,1310.0,1420.0,1490.0,1510.0,1430.0,1950.0,1780.0,1620.0,1480.0,1350.0,1390.0,1520.0,1710.0,1840.0,1920.0,1830.0,1690.0,1750.0,1820.0,2600.0,2220.0,1920.0,1840.0,2020.0,2160.0,2320.0,2410.0,2240.0,2070.0,2110.0,1960.0,1880.0,1830.0,1750.0,1710.0,3700.0,3320.0,3010.0,2810.0,2640.0,2410.0,2540.0,2960.0,3120.0,2980.0,2790.0,2730.0,3120.0,2950.0,2820.0,2900.0,2720.0,3020.0,2860.0,2640.0,2480.0,2360.0,2220.0,2180.0,2470.0,2630.0,2740.0,2670.0,2530.0,2460.0,2580.0,2490.0,2420.0,2360.0,2280.0,2330.0,2560.0,5600.0,4750.0,3420.0,3050.0,2760.0,2610.0,2480.0,2390.0,2330.0,2220.0,2260.0,2510.0,2680.0,2820.0,2910.0,3060.0,2850.0,5200.0,3800.0,3250.0,3050.0,7800.0,5900.0,6100.0,5100.0,4200.0,3600.0,4100.0,6400.0,6900.0,5400.0,4300.0,3700.0,3200.0,3350.0,3800.0,3950.0,3600.0,3200.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[88.0,82.0,91.0,86.0,92.0,99.0,105.0,102.0,165.0,142.0,120.0,104.0,88.0,81.0,90.0,83.0,95.0,92.0,98.0,89.0,101.0,93.0,84.0,88.0,82.0,79.0,89.0,86.0,90.0,96.0,105.0,110.0,94.0,89.0,91.0,85.0,89.0,84.0,96.0,90.0,104.0,106.0,145.0,132.0,102.0,95.0,91.0,88.0,96.0,102.0,100.0,115.0,110.0,120.0,130.0,125.0,112.0,110.0,101.0,104.0,95.0,93.0,102.0,99.0,105.0,108.0,122.0,117.0,104.0,99.0,96.0,101.0,110.0,105.0,116.0,127.0,145.0,132.0,120.0,118.0,112.0,108.0,103.0,107.0,103.0,99.0,111.0,107.0,112.0,118.0,126.0,130.0,115.0,108.0,105.0,112.0,120.0,115.0,130.0,145.0,150.0,160.0,175.0,220.0,195.0,155.0,140.0,130.0,125.0,120.0,135.0,128.0,130.0,140.0,150.0,160.0,145.0,135.0,130.0,128.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1045.0,969.0,969.0,950.0,931.0,902.0,874.0,874.0,950.0,969.0,950.0,874.0,990.0,918.0,918.0,900.0,882.0,855.0,828.0,828.0,900.0,918.0,900.0,828.0,935.0,867.0,867.0,850.0,833.0,808.0,782.0,782.0,850.0,867.0,850.0,782.0,902.0,836.0,836.0,820.0,804.0,779.0,754.0,754.0,820.0,836.0,820.0,754.0,880.0,816.0,816.0,800.0,784.0,760.0,736.0,736.0,800.0,816.0,800.0,736.0,814.0,755.0,755.0,740.0,725.0,703.0,681.0,681.0,740.0,755.0,740.0,681.0,770.0,714.0,714.0,700.0,686.0,665.0,644.0,644.0,700.0,714.0,700.0,644.0,715.0,663.0,663.0,650.0,637.0,618.0,598.0,598.0,650.0,663.0,650.0,598.0,638.0,592.0,592.0,580.0,568.0,551.0,534.0,534.0,580.0,592.0,580.0,534.0,583.0,541.0,541.0,530.0,519.0,504.0,488.0,488.0,530.0,541.0,530.0,488.0]}},{"title":"Marta Kristen","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Marta Kristen\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[9385,8050,8262,7400,8844,8861,11529,8157,8453,9055,7752,7118,12590,10570,8004,7604,6594,8336,10830,7256,7242,18526,12351,17994,12828,12403,17114,50912,18191,10854,11430,11706,15546,14057,12209,13800,11509,12611,14148,11471,9122,10049,11852,10616,10351,10038,8349,16682,20733,13458,12366,16386,11522,12728,10610,10358,9672,9067,11451,9672,11449,10957,10829,10037,8918,8432,8157,9825,9302,12595,12797,20724,15148,12710,12668,14177,12061,9629,15130,11994,12716,10425,11437,13174,12079,17550,13820,11536,11185,15315,16553,12721,13207,26591,9325,16072,14912,14405,12789,9937,11092,8481,9128,8853,9844,9565,9196,9443,10192,11850,13699,10586,10280,12081,10467,12416,11140,25332,9329,7751],"flat_reference_value":16996.54749171543,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2400.0,2700.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2700.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,3300.0,9000.0,5500.0,3600.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,4000.0,3200.0,2700.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2200.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,6000.0,2900.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2400.0,2400.0,3200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2600.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2200.0,2400.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[18200.0,17400.0,17900.0,16800.0,17100.0,18500.0,18900.0,18100.0,17600.0,17200.0,18400.0,18000.0,19100.0,17800.0,18300.0,17500.0,17700.0,17200.0,18600.0,18000.0,17900.0,17400.0,17100.0,18200.0,19300.0,18800.0,23500.0,65000.0,36500.0,22400.0,20800.0,19500.0,18700.0,18100.0,17800.0,18600.0,19400.0,18200.0,18700.0,17900.0,17600.0,17400.0,18500.0,18300.0,17800.0,18100.0,18900.0,31000.0,39000.0,22500.0,21200.0,22800.0,22100.0,20400.0,20900.0,20200.0,19300.0,19100.0,18800.0,19600.0,20500.0,19200.0,19600.0,18500.0,18200.0,17800.0,18700.0,18400.0,18000.0,18600.0,20200.0,36000.0,24800.0,18900.0,18200.0,17400.0,17100.0,16800.0,17600.0,17300.0,16900.0,16700.0,16500.0,17200.0,17900.0,16800.0,17100.0,16400.0,16200.0,15900.0,16800.0,16500.0,16100.0,34000.0,18500.0,17100.0,17600.0,16900.0,16700.0,15800.0,15600.0,15400.0,16200.0,16000.0,15700.0,15500.0,15300.0,16100.0,16600.0,18800.0,16200.0,15500.0,15300.0,17900.0,16100.0,15800.0,18500.0,38000.0,22400.0,16800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[8200.0,8500.0,7800.0,7400.0,7600.0,7100.0,7500.0,7300.0,7200.0,7600.0,7900.0,8100.0,8300.0,8600.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,7400.0,7700.0,7300.0,7500.0,7800.0,7600.0,8000.0,8100.0,8700.0,10500.0,36000.0,22000.0,14000.0,11500.0,10200.0,9400.0,9100.0,8800.0,9500.0,9200.0,9800.0,8900.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,8400.0,8300.0,8100.0,8400.0,8900.0,13500.0,14200.0,10500.0,11200.0,12100.0,11500.0,10200.0,9800.0,9400.0,9100.0,8900.0,8800.0,9600.0,9300.0,9700.0,8800.0,8400.0,8100.0,8000.0,8300.0,8200.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,13800.0,11500.0,9600.0,8700.0,8200.0,7900.0,7600.0,7900.0,7700.0,7500.0,7800.0,7600.0,8100.0,8000.0,8500.0,7800.0,7400.0,7200.0,7000.0,7300.0,7100.0,7200.0,19500.0,10800.0,8500.0,8200.0,8800.0,7700.0,7500.0,7300.0,7100.0,7400.0,7200.0,7000.0,7300.0,7100.0,7600.0,7500.0,8200.0,7400.0,7100.0,6900.0,6800.0,7000.0,6900.0,6700.0,7100.0,6900.0,7300.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10800.0,10500.0,10800.0,10600.0,10200.0,10500.0,10800.0,11500.0,11800.0,10800.0,11000.0,10500.0,10300.0,10000.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,10200.0,10500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,12000.0,42000.0,22000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10800.0,10500.0,11000.0,10800.0,9800.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9300.0,9500.0,9300.0,9000.0,9200.0,9500.0,18000.0,13000.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9800.0,9800.0,8800.0,9000.0,8700.0,8500.0,8300.0,8500.0,8300.0,8000.0,8200.0,8500.0,14000.0,11000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,7800.0,7500.0,7700.0,7800.0,8200.0,8200.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7200.0,7000.0,7200.0,7100.0,6900.0,7100.0,7200.0,7600.0,7600.0,7000.0,7100.0,6900.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,6700.0,6500.0,6700.0,6800.0,7200.0,7200.0,6500.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6100.0,6300.0,6400.0,6800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[19000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,85000.0,48000.0,30000.0,25000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18500.0,20000.0,20000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,36000.0,34000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,32000.0,25000.0,18000.0,17500.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,17000.0,15500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,42000.0,18500.0,16500.0,17000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,40000.0,22000.0,16000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[910.0,780.0,820.0,800.0,740.0,760.0,810.0,730.0,760.0,740.0,700.0,840.0,870.0,740.0,780.0,760.0,700.0,690.0,720.0,660.0,700.0,680.0,640.0,760.0,780.0,700.0,2400.0,19500.0,4800.0,2600.0,1900.0,1500.0,1300.0,1100.0,1000.0,1150.0,980.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,800.0,750.0,780.0,760.0,820.0,3400.0,2900.0,1500.0,1200.0,1150.0,1000.0,900.0,950.0,850.0,870.0,840.0,900.0,1050.0,950.0,800.0,780.0,800.0,760.0,740.0,790.0,720.0,760.0,800.0,1300.0,9800.0,4300.0,2100.0,1500.0,1200.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,780.0,800.0,760.0,720.0,850.0,800.0,700.0,680.0,690.0,650.0,640.0,680.0,620.0,650.0,640.0,610.0,740.0,720.0,620.0,610.0,600.0,580.0,570.0,600.0,560.0,590.0,580.0,550.0,680.0,660.0,560.0,550.0,560.0,540.0,1400.0,800.0,620.0,850.0,3600.0,1700.0,950.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3821.0,3455.0,3620.0,3389.0,3512.0,3185.0,3350.0,3284.0,3122.0,3598.0,3371.0,3195.0,3664.0,3328.0,3591.0,3415.0,3568.0,3342.0,3489.0,3612.0,3405.0,3720.0,3894.0,4128.0,4385.0,4012.0,4520.0,12480.0,9620.0,6245.0,5120.0,4630.0,4185.0,4450.0,4095.0,3810.0,3925.0,3540.0,3780.0,3655.0,3790.0,3520.0,3685.0,3595.0,3470.0,3815.0,4030.0,9120.0,7580.0,5120.0,4680.0,4855.0,4520.0,4195.0,4380.0,4255.0,4070.0,4325.0,4180.0,3950.0,4105.0,3750.0,3985.0,3820.0,3915.0,3680.0,3850.0,3765.0,3595.0,3920.0,4285.0,11240.0,7150.0,5080.0,4220.0,3895.0,3970.0,3625.0,3780.0,3695.0,3510.0,3785.0,3605.0,3420.0,3590.0,3185.0,3425.0,3250.0,3355.0,3085.0,3220.0,3155.0,3010.0,3340.0,3195.0,3025.0,3350.0,3085.0,3260.0,3115.0,3225.0,2950.0,3080.0,3015.0,2890.0,3185.0,3040.0,2915.0,3080.0,2785.0,3015.0,2890.0,2965.0,2735.0,2860.0,2795.0,2680.0,18450.0,11800.0,6120.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5400.0,5600.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,5300.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5100.0,5300.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,22000.0,12000.0,7500.0,6200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5400.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,6500.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5300.0,13000.0,7500.0,5600.0,5200.0,6000.0,5300.0,5100.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,5500.0,5900.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,5600.0,5100.0,4900.0,5200.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,5300.0,11000.0,6200.0,5000.0,4700.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,4700.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,11000.0,5600.0,5200.0,4600.0,4700.0,4400.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4700.0,5000.0,4300.0,4500.0,4200.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,5200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4400.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1050.0,1250.0,980.0,920.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,880.0,1150.0,1000.0,980.0,1100.0,1080.0,1200.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,830.0,800.0,860.0,1050.0,950.0,940.0,1050.0,1100.0,1300.0,1150.0,2800.0,2100.0,1600.0,1400.0,1350.0,1600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,2400.0,2100.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,1450.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1350.0,1250.0,1250.0,2600.0,2200.0,1600.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1250.0,1400.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1150.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1250.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,880.0,1050.0,950.0,900.0,1000.0,1000.0,2400.0,1200.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1900.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1020.0,1080.0,1100.0,980.0,1120.0,1180.0,1260.0,1160.0,1090.0,1140.0,1040.0,1080.0,1090.0,1180.0,1140.0,1120.0,1190.0,1250.0,1340.0,1240.0,1210.0,1290.0,1370.0,1780.0,1680.0,1580.0,1880.0,3350.0,2620.0,2050.0,2180.0,1900.0,1720.0,1760.0,1590.0,1710.0,1470.0,1540.0,1480.0,1590.0,1640.0,1750.0,1840.0,1690.0,1610.0,1660.0,1960.0,3050.0,2450.0,1760.0,2080.0,2180.0,2020.0,1960.0,2120.0,1930.0,1790.0,1840.0,1730.0,1890.0,1590.0,1630.0,1560.0,1610.0,1700.0,1820.0,1900.0,1750.0,1660.0,1710.0,2050.0,2950.0,2300.0,1470.0,1350.0,1390.0,1470.0,1540.0,1620.0,1480.0,1370.0,1420.0,1280.0,1340.0,1190.0,1230.0,1140.0,1180.0,1250.0,1330.0,1390.0,1270.0,1190.0,5900.0,2600.0,1220.0,1070.0,1100.0,1020.0,1060.0,1120.0,1180.0,1270.0,1170.0,1100.0,1150.0,1050.0,1080.0,1020.0,1430.0,1190.0,1100.0,1160.0,1230.0,1310.0,1200.0,1120.0,5600.0,8900.0,3200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[505.0,490.0,510.0,495.0,480.0,465.0,950.0,595.0,2000.0,510.0,495.0,430.0,570.0,550.0,565.0,550.0,540.0,525.0,600.0,620.0,1100.0,565.0,550.0,485.0,630.0,610.0,630.0,610.0,720.0,585.0,680.0,570.0,620.0,820.0,615.0,540.0,970.0,675.0,695.0,675.0,660.0,640.0,800.0,630.0,680.0,695.0,675.0,595.0,1700.0,840.0,990.0,920.0,820.0,795.0,900.0,1010.0,845.0,1120.0,840.0,740.0,945.0,920.0,945.0,920.0,900.0,875.0,1000.0,1030.0,3000.0,1130.0,920.0,810.0,1030.0,1000.0,1030.0,1000.0,1750.0,950.0,1200.0,2300.0,1100.0,1030.0,1000.0,880.0,1100.0,1500.0,1100.0,1700.0,1050.0,1500.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1070.0,945.0,1200.0,1175.0,1200.0,1175.0,1700.0,1115.0,1400.0,1090.0,1300.0,1400.0,1175.0,1300.0,1700.0,1275.0,1310.0,1275.0,1250.0,1210.0,38000.0,11000.0,6200.0,3400.0,2500.0,2050.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[18000.0,12500.0,9200.0,6800.0,5900.0,5000.0,4300.0,3900.0,3600.0,3700.0,4100.0,4500.0,3900.0,3500.0,3600.0,5000.0,8500.0,6500.0,5000.0,4100.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,4300.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,5200.0,8400.0,6300.0,4900.0,4100.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,4300.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,4700.0,6200.0,9800.0,14200.0,19500.0,10400.0,7600.0,33000.0,16500.0,9500.0,6800.0,5200.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,4000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3500.0,3900.0,15000.0,7600.0,5100.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,4000.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,6000.0,3900.0,3500.0,3700.0,4000.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,6200.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,5200.0,5800.0,4100.0,4200.0,6300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3900.0,3400.0,3600.0,3900.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1250.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1300.0,1500.0,1300.0,1300.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1700.0,1500.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0,1250.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1150.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,880.0,880.0,880.0,950.0,950.0,880.0,880.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,830.0,830.0,830.0,900.0,900.0,830.0,830.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,780.0,780.0,780.0,850.0,850.0,780.0,780.0,760.0,760.0,750.0,750.0,750.0,740.0,740.0,740.0,800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[24.0,35.0,28.0,26.0,31.0,23.0,18.0,21.0,30.0,27.0,20.0,19.0,28.0,42.0,31.0,29.0,34.0,26.0,20.0,23.0,33.0,30.0,23.0,21.0,33.0,48.0,36.0,34.0,38.0,29.0,23.0,26.0,38.0,34.0,27.0,24.0,38.0,55.0,42.0,40.0,43.0,33.0,26.0,29.0,43.0,39.0,30.0,27.0,42.0,62.0,47.0,44.0,48.0,37.0,30.0,33.0,48.0,43.0,34.0,31.0,610.0,270.0,160.0,115.0,95.0,82.0,70.0,74.0,86.0,89.0,76.0,64.0,195.0,120.0,78.0,62.0,57.0,49.0,43.0,47.0,61.0,59.0,49.0,42.0,155.0,98.0,66.0,56.0,51.0,45.0,39.0,44.0,55.0,145.0,72.0,50.0,128.0,88.0,58.0,49.0,45.0,39.0,34.0,39.0,51.0,92.0,55.0,46.0,112.0,76.0,50.0,42.0,39.0,35.0,31.0,35.0,46.0,70.0,48.0,43.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[138.0,126.0,143.0,132.0,150.0,145.0,161.0,154.0,149.0,158.0,170.0,152.0,148.0,136.0,152.0,141.0,155.0,163.0,174.0,158.0,169.0,181.0,165.0,177.0,190.0,180.0,205.0,620.0,410.0,300.0,240.0,225.0,210.0,230.0,250.0,280.0,220.0,205.0,215.0,200.0,195.0,210.0,225.0,218.0,230.0,250.0,260.0,390.0,280.0,245.0,230.0,250.0,270.0,290.0,310.0,295.0,280.0,300.0,315.0,330.0,285.0,270.0,280.0,265.0,275.0,290.0,305.0,300.0,315.0,330.0,350.0,480.0,300.0,275.0,260.0,250.0,265.0,255.0,270.0,245.0,260.0,280.0,270.0,290.0,260.0,245.0,255.0,240.0,250.0,265.0,250.0,245.0,260.0,275.0,255.0,280.0,250.0,235.0,245.0,255.0,240.0,250.0,260.0,270.0,265.0,280.0,300.0,275.0,260.0,245.0,255.0,270.0,280.0,265.0,275.0,290.0,310.0,340.0,320.0,360.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[720.0,690.0,700.0,680.0,650.0,640.0,620.0,610.0,650.0,680.0,660.0,640.0,690.0,670.0,660.0,640.0,620.0,610.0,600.0,590.0,620.0,640.0,630.0,610.0,650.0,640.0,680.0,1250.0,900.0,760.0,700.0,680.0,650.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,640.0,720.0,650.0,620.0,600.0,590.0,580.0,570.0,600.0,610.0,590.0,580.0,600.0,590.0,640.0,660.0,630.0,610.0,600.0,590.0,580.0,600.0,590.0,600.0,720.0,680.0,640.0,620.0,600.0,590.0,580.0,570.0,560.0,580.0,570.0,560.0,580.0,560.0,570.0,550.0,540.0,530.0,520.0,520.0,510.0,530.0,520.0,510.0,520.0,510.0,530.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,480.0,470.0,480.0,490.0,480.0,470.0,480.0,470.0,480.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,440.0,450.0,460.0,450.0,440.0,450.0,440.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,410.0,420.0,430.0,420.0,410.0]}},{"title":"Heidi Range","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Heidi Range\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[14759,14906,17243,16498,25465,13488,17765,12404,15695,11241,12840,15462,15439,15321,12587,11368,10666,9017,11177,13330,11403,12494,12686,14090,17400,11784,13540,12136,16519,11361,14867,13040,13540,20226,14369,13258,15435,13035,19977,11749,11659,10814,13147,11897,10982,32480,17361,13415,12897,22134,12409,19762,16160,16097,13891,14142,13614,12859,14858,19075,15721,12651,16107,16417,21111,12265,29061,16201,15220,20377,12358,12081,17025,9923,12150,11938,13260,40980,27506,14789,11521,15274,15051,24139,28780,26756,21500,14139,19508,23000,18935,15670,20618,46997,20687,32252,49649,20145,13674,11866,12672,82865,32876,18966,24353,27153,32491,15690,13727,10762,29320,25955,15527,13570,11137,11606,13904,13324,55201,10382],"flat_reference_value":16965.921922624817,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[8500.0,7600.0,7900.0,7200.0,8000.0,7400.0,8200.0,9700.0,28000.0,12500.0,8200.0,8600.0,9100.0,7300.0,7500.0,6900.0,7200.0,6800.0,7200.0,8800.0,7600.0,6900.0,7100.0,7600.0,21000.0,14500.0,8200.0,7500.0,7900.0,7100.0,6900.0,7000.0,6700.0,7200.0,6800.0,7400.0,8100.0,6800.0,7100.0,6500.0,6800.0,6400.0,6600.0,6900.0,7100.0,6500.0,6200.0,6900.0,7600.0,6400.0,7000.0,7300.0,7000.0,6400.0,6600.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,6800.0,7200.0,6100.0,6500.0,6200.0,6800.0,7200.0,7100.0,18000.0,9800.0,6900.0,6200.0,6800.0,7400.0,6200.0,6500.0,6300.0,6600.0,12500.0,9300.0,7500.0,7200.0,8000.0,6900.0,7200.0,7900.0,6700.0,7100.0,6700.0,7200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7100.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,7200.0,7800.0,6500.0,6800.0,6400.0,6700.0,7000.0,7200.0,6900.0,6400.0,6600.0,6200.0,7000.0,7600.0,6300.0,6600.0,6200.0,6700.0,7100.0,7300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6500.0,6200.0,6900.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[13800.0,12400.0,12900.0,12100.0,12600.0,11900.0,12300.0,13100.0,23400.0,14200.0,12100.0,11800.0,12900.0,11400.0,11900.0,11500.0,11800.0,11200.0,16800.0,13200.0,11900.0,11600.0,11400.0,11700.0,21200.0,13500.0,12100.0,11300.0,11500.0,10900.0,11200.0,11400.0,11000.0,10800.0,10600.0,10900.0,11800.0,10500.0,11100.0,10700.0,11200.0,10800.0,11400.0,11900.0,14600.0,20600.0,13200.0,11500.0,12100.0,10900.0,10400.0,11200.0,11600.0,10800.0,10500.0,10700.0,10200.0,10400.0,10100.0,10600.0,11500.0,10800.0,14900.0,11200.0,12800.0,11100.0,11400.0,18600.0,12700.0,11300.0,10900.0,11200.0,11900.0,10700.0,11100.0,10900.0,11600.0,26100.0,16400.0,13800.0,12500.0,14900.0,13400.0,17400.0,13900.0,12200.0,12500.0,11800.0,12400.0,13100.0,12900.0,13200.0,16800.0,13100.0,12000.0,12600.0,13200.0,11800.0,12300.0,11900.0,12500.0,28200.0,17600.0,14100.0,12800.0,13400.0,12400.0,12900.0,13400.0,12100.0,16200.0,19400.0,15800.0,14200.0,13600.0,13300.0,12500.0,12200.0,11900.0,12400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[13420.0,12850.0,13110.0,12380.0,11950.0,12240.0,12890.0,13600.0,21450.0,15230.0,12760.0,12100.0,12450.0,11800.0,12210.0,11540.0,11200.0,11670.0,13120.0,12050.0,11840.0,11420.0,11090.0,11350.0,16890.0,13120.0,11480.0,10920.0,11240.0,10830.0,11560.0,11110.0,10740.0,10450.0,10180.0,10620.0,11410.0,10850.0,11290.0,10640.0,10320.0,10780.0,11450.0,11230.0,12890.0,11940.0,10650.0,10910.0,11340.0,10820.0,12150.0,13620.0,12840.0,11490.0,11210.0,11580.0,10830.0,10310.0,10740.0,10920.0,11150.0,10480.0,11720.0,10890.0,10610.0,10980.0,11240.0,14850.0,12310.0,11140.0,10860.0,10520.0,11480.0,10930.0,11840.0,11270.0,12390.0,34180.0,23650.0,18240.0,17890.0,19410.0,18120.0,14230.0,14610.0,13950.0,14420.0,13260.0,13810.0,15480.0,14190.0,14750.0,15320.0,13870.0,12940.0,12480.0,13150.0,12390.0,12840.0,12110.0,12450.0,13780.0,13220.0,12960.0,12140.0,11830.0,11460.0,11290.0,11820.0,11210.0,11540.0,10980.0,11230.0,11890.0,11650.0,11380.0,11020.0,10740.0,10510.0,10680.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[8200.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,6900.0,7000.0,6900.0,7600.0,7400.0,6500.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,6100.0,6000.0,6600.0,6500.0,5800.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,5500.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5500.0,5400.0,5900.0,5800.0,5300.0,5600.0,5300.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,5100.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5400.0,5300.0,4900.0,5200.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,5100.0,5100.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,5300.0,5000.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,5600.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,4000.0,4000.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[19500.0,18000.0,18200.0,17500.0,17800.0,17000.0,17500.0,17800.0,16500.0,16800.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,15500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15800.0,15000.0,15500.0,16500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14800.0,15500.0,19000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14200.0,13800.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13200.0,13800.0,14000.0,12800.0,13000.0,12800.0,13000.0,12800.0,13200.0,14000.0,13500.0,15500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,16000.0,16500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13800.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,14500.0,13000.0,13200.0,12500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,15000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12800.0,13500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,27000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14500.0,17000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,20000.0,15000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,7800.0,4300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,5200.0,4600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,8800.0,5200.0,3400.0,3100.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,3600.0,2300.0,2300.0,3700.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3500.0,6400.0,3500.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,3200.0,3900.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,3000.0,3100.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,3300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[68.0,55.0,62.0,58.0,64.0,51.0,49.0,52.0,57.0,61.0,59.0,48.0,65.0,52.0,60.0,57.0,55.0,45.0,42.0,46.0,53.0,56.0,54.0,44.0,62.0,50.0,58.0,54.0,52.0,43.0,40.0,44.0,50.0,53.0,51.0,42.0,60.0,48.0,55.0,52.0,50.0,41.0,38.0,42.0,48.0,51.0,49.0,40.0,65.0,55.0,70.0,68.0,55.0,42.0,39.0,43.0,50.0,54.0,52.0,45.0,58.0,46.0,53.0,50.0,48.0,39.0,36.0,40.0,46.0,49.0,47.0,38.0,55.0,44.0,51.0,48.0,46.0,37.0,34.0,38.0,44.0,47.0,45.0,36.0,52.0,42.0,48.0,46.0,44.0,35.0,32.0,36.0,42.0,45.0,43.0,34.0,50.0,40.0,46.0,44.0,42.0,33.0,30.0,34.0,40.0,43.0,41.0,32.0,48.0,38.0,44.0,42.0,40.0,31.0,28.0,32.0,38.0,41.0,39.0,30.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3600.0,3300.0,2900.0,2700.0,3100.0,3300.0,3000.0,3500.0,3000.0,2750.0,2600.0,2650.0,3150.0,2800.0,2500.0,2350.0,2650.0,2800.0,2950.0,3250.0,2800.0,2550.0,2450.0,2350.0,2950.0,2600.0,6200.0,3100.0,2550.0,2650.0,2850.0,3050.0,2750.0,5400.0,3100.0,2500.0,3000.0,2650.0,2350.0,2200.0,2500.0,2650.0,2800.0,3100.0,2650.0,2450.0,2300.0,2150.0,2700.0,2400.0,2250.0,2150.0,2400.0,2550.0,4800.0,3100.0,2850.0,2700.0,2650.0,2900.0,3300.0,6000.0,3400.0,3100.0,3300.0,7500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,4200.0,12000.0,6500.0,5000.0,4300.0,6500.0,4000.0,3900.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,4000.0,8000.0,5200.0,4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4600.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4600.0,14000.0,7200.0,5500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,4700.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,4400.0,7000.0,4600.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,6000.0,4200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,3400.0,6500.0,4800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,3200.0,5500.0,7500.0,4300.0,3800.0,5800.0,4000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,6500.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3800.0,9000.0,3800.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3400.0,9000.0,5500.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1774.0,1692.0,1518.0,1578.0,1535.0,1644.0,1502.0,1483.0,1625.0,1660.0,1594.0,2044.0,1781.0,1538.0,1570.0,1379.0,1495.0,1524.0,1586.0,1321.0,1632.0,1420.0,1632.0,1856.0,1647.0,1554.0,1395.0,1395.0,1382.0,1539.0,1380.0,1310.0,1494.0,1467.0,1450.0,1841.0,1628.0,1363.0,1381.0,1287.0,1394.0,1366.0,1367.0,1295.0,1391.0,1380.0,1406.0,1784.0,1480.0,1398.0,1267.0,1317.0,1280.0,1344.0,1293.0,1131.0,1397.0,1267.0,1411.0,1622.0,1454.0,1280.0,1281.0,1148.0,1244.0,1244.0,1294.0,1122.0,1253.0,1294.0,1267.0,1578.0,1316.0,1243.0,1161.0,1149.0,1116.0,1244.0,1149.0,1090.0,1241.0,1116.0,1256.0,1428.0,1299.0,1122.0,1146.0,1038.0,1091.0,1089.0,1135.0,984.0,1179.0,1069.0,1191.0,1382.0,1192.0,1113.0,1019.0,1009.0,1010.0,1072.0,1009.0,976.0,1080.0,1061.0,1059.0,1332.0,1144.0,1008.0,999.0,912.0,989.0,988.0,979.0,901.0,1006.0,980.0,988.0,1266.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4600.0,5300.0,6500.0,4900.0,4750.0,4550.0,4300.0,4400.0,4700.0,4850.0,4950.0,4250.0,4350.0,4450.0,4550.0,4450.0,4300.0,4200.0,4050.0,4150.0,4450.0,4550.0,4650.0,4050.0,4250.0,4350.0,4450.0,4350.0,4250.0,4150.0,3950.0,4650.0,5500.0,4850.0,4700.0,4050.0,4050.0,4150.0,4250.0,4150.0,4050.0,3950.0,3750.0,3850.0,4150.0,4250.0,4350.0,3750.0,4150.0,4250.0,4950.0,5450.0,5250.0,4900.0,4450.0,4350.0,4650.0,4750.0,4650.0,4050.0,4400.0,4500.0,4750.0,4650.0,4550.0,4450.0,4250.0,4350.0,4650.0,5850.0,6250.0,4650.0,4750.0,4850.0,5050.0,6450.0,6050.0,5250.0,4850.0,4950.0,5150.0,5050.0,5150.0,4550.0,4650.0,4750.0,4850.0,4750.0,4650.0,4550.0,4350.0,4450.0,4750.0,4850.0,4950.0,4350.0,4850.0,4950.0,5050.0,4950.0,4850.0,4750.0,4550.0,5050.0,7550.0,10500.0,18000.0,16000.0,34000.0,58000.0,33000.0,13500.0,10500.0,9500.0,7500.0,8000.0,10000.0,12000.0,13500.0,11500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4180.0,3860.0,4020.0,4110.0,4360.0,4190.0,3940.0,3880.0,4140.0,4280.0,4420.0,4690.0,4120.0,3790.0,3950.0,4040.0,4220.0,4070.0,3860.0,3910.0,4130.0,4260.0,4390.0,4610.0,9300.0,5850.0,5280.0,4550.0,4620.0,4430.0,4170.0,4210.0,4390.0,4520.0,4680.0,5050.0,4610.0,4330.0,4470.0,4590.0,4680.0,4470.0,4210.0,4250.0,4440.0,4590.0,4860.0,13700.0,43500.0,21800.0,8600.0,6500.0,5850.0,5550.0,5160.0,5080.0,5280.0,5510.0,5760.0,11800.0,29800.0,13900.0,6600.0,5700.0,5150.0,4850.0,4580.0,4520.0,4670.0,4860.0,5080.0,5650.0,5200.0,4720.0,4780.0,4870.0,4980.0,4700.0,4440.0,4370.0,4500.0,4650.0,4830.0,5040.0,4850.0,4390.0,4450.0,4540.0,4640.0,4380.0,4140.0,4090.0,4200.0,4340.0,4480.0,4620.0,4480.0,4020.0,4080.0,4160.0,4270.0,4020.0,3800.0,3760.0,3860.0,3990.0,4110.0,4260.0,4120.0,3720.0,3780.0,3860.0,3960.0,3740.0,3520.0,3480.0,3580.0,3700.0,3820.0,3980.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2150.0,2100.0,2200.0,2150.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2050.0,1950.0,1950.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1900.0,1900.0,1950.0,1950.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2600.0,2200.0,2000.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[170.0,155.0,165.0,160.0,250.0,165.0,140.0,155.0,185.0,175.0,160.0,150.0,175.0,210.0,170.0,160.0,260.0,180.0,150.0,165.0,195.0,235.0,180.0,165.0,205.0,190.0,215.0,200.0,310.0,420.0,175.0,195.0,280.0,240.0,210.0,195.0,195.0,180.0,205.0,190.0,290.0,400.0,165.0,180.0,255.0,215.0,195.0,185.0,190.0,175.0,195.0,180.0,275.0,380.0,155.0,170.0,235.0,195.0,190.0,180.0,210.0,195.0,330.0,195.0,270.0,315.0,165.0,180.0,360.0,275.0,215.0,200.0,260.0,235.0,275.0,250.0,320.0,360.0,205.0,240.0,450.0,400.0,420.0,330.0,250.0,225.0,265.0,240.0,330.0,370.0,195.0,225.0,420.0,380.0,310.0,275.0,450.0,320.0,280.0,235.0,330.0,360.0,200.0,235.0,430.0,360.0,290.0,250.0,245.0,220.0,255.0,230.0,325.0,355.0,190.0,215.0,410.0,350.0,250.0,230.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[155.0,142.0,161.0,149.0,168.0,182.0,171.0,158.0,174.0,186.0,163.0,190.0,172.0,157.0,180.0,166.0,185.0,196.0,182.0,173.0,201.0,188.0,176.0,207.0,194.0,179.0,203.0,218.0,236.0,292.0,260.0,324.0,238.0,222.0,211.0,245.0,218.0,205.0,231.0,248.0,267.0,302.0,291.0,338.0,612.0,431.0,306.0,274.0,251.0,232.0,219.0,208.0,216.0,229.0,225.0,213.0,241.0,229.0,218.0,247.0,226.0,210.0,224.0,239.0,252.0,275.0,286.0,319.0,268.0,254.0,241.0,273.0,248.0,229.0,255.0,278.0,303.0,574.0,438.0,336.0,302.0,287.0,265.0,298.0,271.0,249.0,262.0,278.0,295.0,322.0,309.0,296.0,314.0,287.0,273.0,301.0,278.0,259.0,282.0,301.0,327.0,419.0,382.0,335.0,318.0,302.0,286.0,312.0,289.0,268.0,283.0,297.0,315.0,343.0,328.0,311.0,329.0,305.0,291.0,319.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[470.0,450.0,480.0,460.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,440.0,450.0,460.0,500.0,455.0,440.0,470.0,450.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,430.0,440.0,450.0,470.0,480.0,460.0,490.0,470.0,455.0,440.0,430.0,425.0,450.0,460.0,470.0,490.0,445.0,430.0,455.0,440.0,425.0,410.0,400.0,395.0,420.0,430.0,440.0,460.0,450.0,520.0,470.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,425.0,435.0,445.0,470.0,410.0,395.0,420.0,405.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,365.0,390.0,400.0,410.0,430.0,380.0,365.0,390.0,375.0,360.0,350.0,345.0,340.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,400.0,360.0,345.0,370.0,355.0,340.0,335.0,325.0,320.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,375.0,350.0,335.0,355.0,345.0,330.0,320.0,315.0,310.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,365.0,330.0,315.0,335.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,295.0,290.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,345.0]}},{"title":"Yung Lean","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Yung Lean\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[47829,49963,57820,43985,44927,38397,33978,69538,43234,34606,37527,43212,31210,23709,26321,21152,19758,17413,19469,20886,26018,23394,56694,45444,41037,31515,40738,27483,24403,26846,25782,24992,29308,25611,29368,19967,19486,16821,17582,16291,17188,16832,17224,19704,17004,17328,19803,19790,21109,21605,24342,37868,44924,19326,24406,21410,21270,22092,26973,27739,27726,41143,31782,35404,26464,23446,24646,24310,26898,24265,47035,41141,61626,127542,69422,63556,36623,44786,35750,39111,31134,27914,31764,39167,45705,38227,30629,26432,24524,22904,41242,34411,25856,24630,23862,33351,26852,23030,32435,59727,39700,42081,36758,32316,27196,44604,34768,32093,37154,43807,45863,24998,34669,23750,23113,26993,30732,34503,48572,31253],"flat_reference_value":16911.94699869903,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[30000.0,47000.0,40000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,38000.0,59000.0,42000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,43000.0,34000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,35000.0,39000.0,68000.0,48000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,51000.0,45000.0,39000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,41000.0,110000.0,125000.0,85000.0,90000.0,65000.0,57000.0,55000.0,53000.0,50000.0,49000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,60000.0,62000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,43000.0,68000.0,54000.0,46000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,52000.0,55000.0,69000.0,55000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[58400.0,96200.0,74500.0,59100.0,56800.0,84300.0,63200.0,81500.0,59400.0,53700.0,54900.0,72600.0,56300.0,48200.0,50400.0,47900.0,48600.0,46500.0,47800.0,49200.0,53400.0,58900.0,98400.0,69300.0,57200.0,49800.0,51200.0,47600.0,48300.0,46100.0,47500.0,48900.0,47200.0,52400.0,68700.0,53100.0,48500.0,41900.0,44200.0,43800.0,45100.0,41600.0,43200.0,44000.0,40800.0,42300.0,46700.0,45900.0,47100.0,46800.0,54200.0,68900.0,106400.0,64300.0,53800.0,51200.0,47600.0,48900.0,61500.0,58700.0,52400.0,46300.0,48700.0,47200.0,48100.0,45600.0,46900.0,47800.0,44500.0,46200.0,49300.0,58400.0,128500.0,142300.0,94600.0,91200.0,68400.0,57900.0,54300.0,52800.0,49100.0,50600.0,51400.0,50200.0,51800.0,54600.0,49700.0,47300.0,48200.0,46900.0,76400.0,89500.0,54100.0,49800.0,48300.0,49100.0,48600.0,45900.0,64800.0,52300.0,54700.0,79200.0,68500.0,61400.0,52600.0,64100.0,51800.0,48900.0,47500.0,44200.0,48600.0,51300.0,57800.0,52400.0,48900.0,47600.0,44800.0,45900.0,44700.0,45300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[52000.0,81000.0,74000.0,58000.0,51000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,49000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,45000.0,48000.0,55000.0,52000.0,82000.0,64000.0,54000.0,50000.0,49000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,45000.0,62000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,46000.0,49000.0,55000.0,88000.0,58000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,51000.0,48000.0,46000.0,43000.0,45000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,46000.0,52000.0,85000.0,185000.0,210000.0,175000.0,120000.0,95000.0,80000.0,72000.0,68000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,56000.0,52000.0,54000.0,51000.0,50000.0,53000.0,85000.0,92000.0,64000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,78000.0,65000.0,54000.0,49000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[34000.0,46000.0,36000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,36000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,21000.0,22000.0,32000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,52000.0,38000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,36000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,32000.0,45000.0,35000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,42000.0,35000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[75000.0,88000.0,80000.0,76000.0,72000.0,68000.0,68000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,66000.0,64000.0,58000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,53000.0,54000.0,54000.0,55000.0,58000.0,75000.0,66000.0,64000.0,58000.0,57000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,53000.0,53000.0,52000.0,54000.0,60000.0,56000.0,57000.0,52000.0,53000.0,51000.0,51000.0,50000.0,51000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,51000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,60000.0,68000.0,88000.0,72000.0,68000.0,68000.0,66000.0,72000.0,85000.0,95000.0,110000.0,105000.0,105000.0,98000.0,95000.0,90000.0,92000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,86000.0,90000.0,98000.0,95000.0,95000.0,110000.0,95000.0,88000.0,90000.0,88000.0,82000.0,82000.0,82000.0,85000.0,85000.0,78000.0,78000.0,75000.0,75000.0,72000.0,74000.0,73000.0,70000.0,70000.0,72000.0,74000.0,76000.0,78000.0,100000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,80000.0,78000.0,115000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,90000.0,95000.0,125000.0,100000.0,95000.0,92000.0,88000.0,88000.0,85000.0,85000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[30500.0,28800.0,29500.0,27200.0,26100.0,24900.0,24200.0,25300.0,23800.0,23500.0,22800.0,37900.0,31400.0,112000.0,42600.0,31200.0,28400.0,26800.0,25700.0,26100.0,24900.0,24600.0,23800.0,26300.0,24100.0,23300.0,22800.0,21900.0,21600.0,20800.0,20500.0,20900.0,21800.0,24400.0,96000.0,33800.0,25400.0,23200.0,22100.0,20900.0,20100.0,19200.0,18900.0,19100.0,19300.0,19900.0,20200.0,21400.0,20500.0,20200.0,22400.0,61500.0,47800.0,24600.0,22300.0,21400.0,20800.0,20400.0,19700.0,21500.0,20200.0,19100.0,18800.0,19300.0,18400.0,18100.0,17900.0,18200.0,18900.0,20400.0,22300.0,24100.0,26200.0,25900.0,29800.0,71000.0,33400.0,28700.0,27200.0,26500.0,26100.0,27400.0,28300.0,30400.0,29100.0,27900.0,30200.0,28400.0,28800.0,27600.0,26800.0,27700.0,28100.0,29300.0,31400.0,32700.0,34100.0,40800.0,106000.0,45200.0,36400.0,33900.0,33100.0,33400.0,34200.0,42100.0,45600.0,39800.0,37700.0,41900.0,44800.0,56200.0,124000.0,49700.0,42500.0,40100.0,38400.0,37200.0,38600.0,43900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[11200.0,23800.0,17400.0,13200.0,11500.0,10800.0,10400.0,10200.0,10500.0,10800.0,11100.0,9800.0,10500.0,10200.0,10800.0,11000.0,11200.0,10900.0,10700.0,11500.0,12300.0,14800.0,21500.0,15600.0,12300.0,11800.0,12100.0,11900.0,12400.0,13200.0,12800.0,12500.0,11900.0,12100.0,11800.0,10200.0,11500.0,11800.0,12500.0,13200.0,13800.0,14500.0,14200.0,13900.0,13100.0,12900.0,13500.0,12000.0,13800.0,14500.0,16800.0,18900.0,28300.0,20500.0,17800.0,16500.0,15800.0,15400.0,15100.0,13900.0,14700.0,14300.0,15200.0,15500.0,15800.0,15200.0,14900.0,15100.0,16200.0,16800.0,15900.0,14100.0,15500.0,16200.0,17800.0,24500.0,19200.0,17800.0,17400.0,17100.0,16900.0,17500.0,17200.0,15500.0,16300.0,16500.0,17200.0,17000.0,17500.0,18300.0,19800.0,18600.0,17400.0,16900.0,16700.0,14800.0,15200.0,15800.0,24200.0,18900.0,16500.0,15800.0,15200.0,14900.0,14700.0,15000.0,15300.0,13600.0,13800.0,13500.0,13200.0,14000.0,14500.0,13800.0,13600.0,13400.0,14200.0,14800.0,14500.0,12900.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[40000.0,120000.0,78000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,132000.0,58000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,55000.0,115000.0,52000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,45000.0,54000.0,50000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,45000.0,41000.0,42000.0,45000.0,54000.0,60000.0,178000.0,88000.0,70000.0,63000.0,59000.0,58000.0,61000.0,55000.0,58000.0,60000.0,63000.0,65000.0,68000.0,80000.0,73000.0,71000.0,69000.0,71000.0,76000.0,68000.0,74000.0,76000.0,92000.0,218000.0,112000.0,98000.0,92000.0,90000.0,87000.0,89000.0,92000.0,83000.0,84000.0,86000.0,89000.0,91000.0,96000.0,106000.0,112000.0,106000.0,96000.0,97000.0,101000.0,90000.0,93000.0,96000.0,238000.0,132000.0,112000.0,118000.0,113000.0,110000.0,106000.0,110000.0,118000.0,102000.0,106000.0,108000.0,110000.0,114000.0,122000.0,138000.0,132000.0,126000.0,168000.0,132000.0,128000.0,118000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[14000.0,38000.0,26000.0,19000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,15000.0,52000.0,34000.0,20000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,15000.0,18000.0,62000.0,35000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,26000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,20000.0,35000.0,65000.0,55000.0,40000.0,95000.0,60000.0,40000.0,32000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,65000.0,42000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7200.0,6800.0,7300.0,7600.0,7900.0,8200.0,8400.0,8100.0,7700.0,8000.0,7400.0,6800.0,14800.0,12200.0,10800.0,9600.0,9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,9600.0,9300.0,17200.0,13400.0,10200.0,9800.0,10200.0,10600.0,10800.0,12600.0,11200.0,11500.0,12100.0,11200.0,10900.0,10400.0,9500.0,10200.0,10500.0,10900.0,11600.0,12800.0,12000.0,12400.0,12200.0,11800.0,11500.0,11200.0,10300.0,10800.0,11400.0,12800.0,13200.0,13000.0,13100.0,13400.0,13200.0,12800.0,12500.0,12100.0,11100.0,11800.0,12400.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14800.0,14600.0,15200.0,14900.0,14300.0,13200.0,13800.0,14700.0,15800.0,16500.0,17300.0,18000.0,18700.0,18400.0,17800.0,17300.0,16700.0,15300.0,16200.0,17200.0,18300.0,19200.0,20100.0,21000.0,22200.0,23100.0,22700.0,21900.0,21000.0,19300.0,19800.0,22400.0,24000.0,24800.0,26200.0,27100.0,26400.0,26800.0,26100.0,25400.0,24600.0,22800.0,23600.0,24800.0,26000.0,26800.0,27800.0,28600.0,29500.0,30800.0,32200.0,31500.0,29800.0,27700.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4160.0,14300.0,7700.0,4330.0,4370.0,4240.0,4030.0,3910.0,4280.0,7060.0,5460.0,4430.0,4550.0,4600.0,4690.0,4740.0,4780.0,4650.0,4420.0,4280.0,4690.0,4830.0,4780.0,4420.0,5940.0,6000.0,6120.0,6180.0,6240.0,6060.0,5760.0,5580.0,7340.0,15200.0,16850.0,8640.0,7430.0,7500.0,7650.0,7730.0,7800.0,7580.0,7200.0,6980.0,7650.0,7880.0,10530.0,21600.0,12630.0,8500.0,10840.0,10340.0,9720.0,8590.0,8160.0,7910.0,8670.0,8930.0,8840.0,8160.0,12230.0,9500.0,9690.0,9790.0,9880.0,11330.0,9120.0,8840.0,9690.0,9980.0,9880.0,10030.0,12870.0,13000.0,17240.0,41510.0,22980.0,16410.0,13730.0,12090.0,13260.0,13650.0,13520.0,12480.0,13370.0,13500.0,17900.0,13910.0,14040.0,13640.0,12960.0,12560.0,13770.0,14180.0,14040.0,12960.0,18810.0,19000.0,19380.0,27400.0,63230.0,34540.0,23710.0,20320.0,19380.0,19950.0,19760.0,18240.0,19800.0,20000.0,20400.0,20600.0,20800.0,24240.0,19200.0,18600.0,20400.0,21000.0,22880.0,19200.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,31000.0,27000.0,25000.0,30000.0,34000.0,32000.0,28000.0,31000.0,46000.0,41000.0,49000.0,79000.0,67000.0,54000.0,47000.0,49000.0,50000.0,45000.0,39000.0,35000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,24000.0,22000.0,28000.0,32000.0,30000.0,26000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,37000.0,44000.0,45000.0,50000.0,74000.0,52000.0,49000.0,53000.0,51000.0,68000.0,56000.0,52000.0,44000.0,39000.0,44000.0,48000.0,52000.0,43000.0,39000.0,37000.0,49000.0,42000.0,46000.0,41000.0,34000.0,30000.0,36000.0,40000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,37000.0,48000.0,42000.0,35000.0,31000.0,60000.0,49000.0,44000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,37000.0,30000.0,25000.0,23000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,21000.0,20000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,31000.0,37000.0,62000.0,51000.0,41000.0,45000.0,45000.0,40000.0,35000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[8700.0,11200.0,10100.0,10400.0,12600.0,26300.0,18100.0,14900.0,13800.0,12800.0,12100.0,11400.0,10300.0,11900.0,15400.0,31500.0,22800.0,18200.0,15800.0,14800.0,16100.0,18700.0,21200.0,16500.0,17600.0,16900.0,17900.0,18800.0,28200.0,21900.0,18700.0,17400.0,19500.0,36100.0,25600.0,19800.0,17800.0,16900.0,18000.0,18800.0,19300.0,18100.0,16300.0,15500.0,18100.0,20600.0,19400.0,17700.0,17100.0,25200.0,31300.0,22800.0,34100.0,26400.0,21700.0,19900.0,20100.0,19300.0,18200.0,17500.0,17300.0,19100.0,30600.0,22400.0,19900.0,18100.0,16600.0,15800.0,16900.0,18300.0,18000.0,16700.0,18700.0,34900.0,25100.0,22300.0,28400.0,53600.0,37500.0,30100.0,26800.0,24500.0,23300.0,22000.0,20900.0,21600.0,23700.0,22100.0,27300.0,30100.0,26200.0,23700.0,21900.0,24400.0,22600.0,20100.0,23100.0,24600.0,27900.0,31200.0,36300.0,62100.0,43700.0,37900.0,35200.0,33100.0,30700.0,28300.0,27100.0,26300.0,26900.0,27400.0,29500.0,32700.0,29900.0,27800.0,26500.0,26100.0,24900.0,24100.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[15000.0,13000.0,11500.0,11000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12500.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13500.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,22000.0,17000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,16000.0,19000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,14000.0,22000.0,20000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,14500.0,18000.0,23000.0,21000.0,18500.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,16500.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15500.0,17000.0,19000.0,18000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16500.0,15500.0,14000.0,15000.0,21000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,18000.0,22000.0,36000.0,28000.0,20000.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,16500.0,15000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2100.0,2000.0,2040.0,1960.0,1900.0,1840.0,1800.0,1900.0,2040.0,2080.0,2060.0,2000.0,2415.0,2300.0,2346.0,2254.0,2185.0,2116.0,2070.0,2185.0,2346.0,2392.0,2369.0,2300.0,1995.0,1900.0,1938.0,1862.0,1805.0,1748.0,1710.0,1805.0,1938.0,1976.0,1957.0,1900.0,1575.0,1500.0,1530.0,1470.0,1425.0,1380.0,1350.0,1425.0,1530.0,1560.0,1545.0,1500.0,1785.0,1700.0,1734.0,1666.0,1615.0,1564.0,1530.0,1615.0,1734.0,1768.0,1751.0,1700.0,1260.0,1200.0,1224.0,1176.0,1140.0,1104.0,1080.0,1140.0,1224.0,1248.0,1236.0,1200.0,1103.0,1050.0,1071.0,1029.0,998.0,966.0,945.0,998.0,1071.0,1092.0,1082.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1020.0,980.0,950.0,920.0,900.0,950.0,1020.0,1040.0,1030.0,1000.0,945.0,900.0,918.0,882.0,855.0,828.0,810.0,855.0,918.0,936.0,927.0,900.0,840.0,800.0,816.0,784.0,760.0,736.0,720.0,760.0,816.0,832.0,824.0,800.0]}},{"title":"Jimeoin","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Jimeoin\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[4332,3651,2785,3674,2542,1820,2592,3076,2934,3252,2125,2320,4614,2837,2981,4589,2583,3328,2400,3389,2413,3034,5663,3424,3349,6654,4924,3172,2228,2744,2592,6464,4394,4242,2626,4972,3871,4200,4156,4917,5966,3350,3379,3410,4642,5726,6374,3121,3965,4880,6551,5054,4788,2479,5507,2665,5836,3000,4893,3392,3931,4512,5876,4283,3526,5475,3602,8016,5532,6467,4686,4053,5490,5508,3696,3401,3532,6170,4314,3973,3375,4724,2706,2917,6900,5583,14268,3898,3928,3779,3693,5144,4246,5772,5206,3243,3135,5322,3724,4337,3069,3647,3534,3688,2736,8204,2855,2470,3258,2734,5190,4588,3763,3184,2713,3570,13502,21878,5776,5537],"flat_reference_value":17087.345414448337,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6200.0,5700.0,6800.0,7800.0,6300.0,5300.0,5100.0,6100.0,5300.0,5100.0,5600.0,6500.0,6100.0,5600.0,6700.0,7600.0,6400.0,5500.0,5200.0,6800.0,5700.0,5400.0,5900.0,6700.0,6500.0,6000.0,7400.0,8500.0,6900.0,5700.0,5400.0,7100.0,5900.0,5600.0,6100.0,7000.0,6400.0,5900.0,7200.0,8000.0,6800.0,5600.0,5300.0,6900.0,5700.0,5400.0,5900.0,6500.0,6100.0,5700.0,6200.0,5800.0,5300.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5400.0,6200.0,5900.0,5400.0,5900.0,6200.0,5500.0,4900.0,4700.0,5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,5700.0,6300.0,6200.0,5700.0,6600.0,7400.0,6300.0,5200.0,5000.0,6300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5800.0,6600.0,6400.0,5900.0,7000.0,7900.0,6500.0,5400.0,5200.0,6700.0,5700.0,5500.0,6100.0,6800.0,6600.0,6100.0,7300.0,8200.0,6800.0,5600.0,5300.0,7000.0,6000.0,5700.0,6300.0,7100.0,6800.0,6200.0,7500.0,8400.0,7000.0,5800.0,5500.0,7200.0,6200.0,5900.0,6500.0,7300.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[6800.0,7400.0,9600.0,9100.0,6900.0,5800.0,5900.0,8700.0,7100.0,8200.0,7900.0,6100.0,6500.0,7300.0,9800.0,9200.0,6700.0,5600.0,5800.0,8900.0,7200.0,8100.0,7800.0,5900.0,6400.0,7200.0,9500.0,8800.0,6500.0,5500.0,5700.0,8500.0,6900.0,7700.0,7400.0,5800.0,6900.0,18500.0,21800.0,10400.0,6800.0,5700.0,5800.0,8400.0,6700.0,7600.0,7300.0,5700.0,6300.0,7100.0,5900.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,5100.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,5200.0,5800.0,7400.0,7600.0,5800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5400.0,5300.0,6200.0,6100.0,5000.0,5500.0,6400.0,8200.0,8000.0,6100.0,5100.0,5200.0,7600.0,6300.0,7100.0,6800.0,5200.0,5600.0,6500.0,8100.0,7800.0,5900.0,4900.0,5100.0,7400.0,6100.0,6900.0,6600.0,5000.0,5400.0,6300.0,7900.0,7500.0,5700.0,4800.0,4900.0,7100.0,5900.0,6600.0,6400.0,4900.0,5200.0,6100.0,7600.0,7300.0,5500.0,4700.0,4800.0,6900.0,5700.0,6400.0,6200.0,4800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[9200.0,7800.0,8900.0,11500.0,7400.0,6600.0,7100.0,12800.0,8300.0,7900.0,8500.0,10400.0,9100.0,7600.0,8400.0,10800.0,7100.0,6400.0,7300.0,13100.0,8000.0,7700.0,8900.0,11200.0,8800.0,7300.0,8700.0,11400.0,6900.0,6100.0,6800.0,12400.0,7600.0,7200.0,9500.0,10900.0,8400.0,7100.0,8200.0,10600.0,6800.0,6300.0,7000.0,11900.0,7400.0,7100.0,8300.0,10200.0,8000.0,6900.0,6100.0,6500.0,5800.0,5200.0,5500.0,6200.0,5400.0,5800.0,6900.0,8200.0,7100.0,5900.0,6600.0,7400.0,5600.0,5100.0,5800.0,7600.0,6100.0,6400.0,7800.0,9100.0,7500.0,6300.0,7900.0,9400.0,6200.0,5700.0,6400.0,10800.0,6900.0,6700.0,8100.0,9600.0,7800.0,6200.0,7600.0,9200.0,5900.0,5400.0,6100.0,10400.0,6600.0,6400.0,7700.0,9300.0,7400.0,6000.0,7300.0,8900.0,5700.0,5200.0,5900.0,9800.0,6300.0,6100.0,7400.0,8900.0,7100.0,5800.0,7000.0,8600.0,5500.0,5100.0,5700.0,9500.0,6100.0,5900.0,7100.0,8600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[3900.0,3500.0,3800.0,4100.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3600.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,3700.0,3300.0,3600.0,3800.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3400.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3000.0,3300.0,3500.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3200.0,2800.0,3100.0,3200.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2900.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2900.0,3000.0,2700.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2700.0,2800.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2400.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2400.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2100.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,2100.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[11500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9800.0,11000.0,9800.0,10000.0,10200.0,11000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9800.0,10500.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9200.0,9300.0,10000.0,10000.0,8800.0,9000.0,9800.0,8600.0,8200.0,8500.0,9400.0,8400.0,8500.0,8600.0,9200.0,9500.0,8300.0,8500.0,9000.0,8000.0,7700.0,7900.0,8700.0,7900.0,8000.0,8000.0,8600.0,8800.0,7800.0,8000.0,9000.0,8800.0,7800.0,7600.0,7600.0,7300.0,7400.0,7400.0,8000.0,8300.0,7200.0,7400.0,7800.0,7200.0,6900.0,7000.0,7300.0,6900.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7800.0,6900.0,7200.0,7600.0,7000.0,6700.0,6900.0,7600.0,6800.0,6900.0,6900.0,7300.0,7600.0,6800.0,7000.0,7400.0,6900.0,6500.0,6700.0,7300.0,6600.0,6700.0,6700.0,7100.0,7300.0,6500.0,6700.0,7000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6300.0,6900.0,6300.0,6300.0,6300.0,6700.0,6900.0,6100.0,6300.0,6600.0,6200.0,5900.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6300.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6300.0,5700.0,7500.0,7900.0,6000.0,5600.0,5800.0,6900.0,5700.0,5900.0,6100.0,6700.0,6400.0,6000.0,7600.0,8000.0,6100.0,5800.0,6000.0,7100.0,5900.0,6000.0,6300.0,6900.0,6600.0,6200.0,7800.0,8200.0,6300.0,6000.0,6100.0,7300.0,6000.0,6100.0,6400.0,7100.0,6900.0,6500.0,8100.0,8500.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,13000.0,10500.0,7200.0,6800.0,7500.0,6700.0,6200.0,7900.0,7000.0,5600.0,5300.0,5400.0,6300.0,5500.0,5600.0,5800.0,6400.0,6100.0,5800.0,6900.0,7100.0,5800.0,5500.0,5600.0,6500.0,5600.0,5800.0,6000.0,6700.0,6900.0,6400.0,8400.0,8800.0,6600.0,6300.0,6500.0,7700.0,6500.0,6600.0,6900.0,7600.0,7100.0,6700.0,9000.0,9400.0,6900.0,6700.0,6800.0,8100.0,6800.0,7000.0,8200.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,9800.0,9300.0,40000.0,31000.0,25000.0,13500.0,9600.0,9200.0,9400.0,10300.0,9700.0,9100.0,11800.0,11200.0,9100.0,8800.0,8900.0,10600.0,8900.0,9100.0,9400.0,10400.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2480.0,2310.0,2520.0,2450.0,2280.0,2150.0,2290.0,2450.0,2220.0,2110.0,2050.0,1840.0,2350.0,2180.0,2400.0,2320.0,2140.0,2020.0,2150.0,2370.0,2100.0,1980.0,1920.0,1720.0,2180.0,2020.0,2250.0,2180.0,2000.0,1880.0,2010.0,2210.0,1950.0,1840.0,1780.0,1590.0,2020.0,1880.0,2100.0,2030.0,1860.0,1750.0,1880.0,2070.0,1820.0,1710.0,1660.0,1470.0,1850.0,1720.0,2600.0,2700.0,1900.0,1620.0,1720.0,1890.0,1680.0,1580.0,1520.0,1350.0,1700.0,1580.0,1760.0,1700.0,1550.0,1460.0,1560.0,1750.0,1520.0,1430.0,1390.0,1240.0,1560.0,1450.0,1620.0,1570.0,1430.0,1340.0,1440.0,1620.0,1400.0,1720.0,1280.0,1150.0,1430.0,1320.0,1490.0,1440.0,1310.0,1220.0,1320.0,1500.0,1280.0,1210.0,1170.0,1040.0,1300.0,1210.0,1360.0,1310.0,1190.0,1110.0,1200.0,1370.0,1160.0,1100.0,1060.0,940.0,1190.0,1100.0,1240.0,1200.0,1090.0,1010.0,1090.0,1250.0,1060.0,1000.0,970.0,860.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[9400.0,7700.0,11700.0,12200.0,7200.0,6800.0,7700.0,11300.0,7700.0,8100.0,9900.0,10800.0,10500.0,8500.0,13000.0,14800.0,8000.0,7500.0,8500.0,12500.0,8500.0,9000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,9400.0,14300.0,15200.0,8800.0,8200.0,9300.0,13700.0,9300.0,9900.0,12100.0,13200.0,12600.0,10200.0,15600.0,16200.0,9600.0,9000.0,10200.0,15000.0,10200.0,10800.0,13200.0,14400.0,12000.0,10000.0,11000.0,6500.0,5200.0,5000.0,6000.0,7500.0,6500.0,7000.0,8500.0,9500.0,11500.0,8000.0,12500.0,13000.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,9500.0,8500.0,9000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12500.0,10000.0,15000.0,16000.0,9500.0,9000.0,10000.0,14500.0,10500.0,11000.0,13500.0,15000.0,13500.0,11000.0,17000.0,18000.0,10500.0,10000.0,11000.0,15500.0,11500.0,12000.0,14500.0,16000.0,12000.0,9800.0,14500.0,15500.0,9200.0,8600.0,9700.0,13800.0,9800.0,10300.0,12700.0,13800.0,10500.0,8500.0,12500.0,13500.0,8000.0,7500.0,8500.0,12000.0,8500.0,9000.0,11000.0,12000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2250.0,1890.0,1800.0,1890.0,1710.0,1620.0,1800.0,4750.0,1890.0,1800.0,1800.0,1980.0,2375.0,1995.0,1900.0,1995.0,1805.0,1710.0,1900.0,4375.0,1995.0,1900.0,1900.0,2090.0,2625.0,2205.0,2100.0,2205.0,1995.0,1890.0,2100.0,5125.0,2205.0,2100.0,2100.0,2310.0,2875.0,2415.0,2300.0,2415.0,2185.0,2070.0,2300.0,5875.0,2415.0,2300.0,2300.0,2530.0,2500.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2500.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,2750.0,2310.0,2200.0,2310.0,2090.0,1980.0,2200.0,5250.0,2310.0,2200.0,2200.0,2420.0,3125.0,2625.0,2500.0,2625.0,2375.0,2250.0,2500.0,6625.0,2625.0,2500.0,2500.0,2750.0,4000.0,3360.0,3200.0,3360.0,8040.0,2880.0,3200.0,7000.0,3360.0,3200.0,3200.0,3520.0,4375.0,7675.0,3500.0,3675.0,3325.0,3150.0,3500.0,7375.0,3675.0,3500.0,3500.0,3850.0,22000.0,9000.0,3600.0,3360.0,3040.0,2880.0,3200.0,6500.0,3360.0,3200.0,3200.0,3520.0],"meta/muse-ember":[92.0,86.0,98.0,90.0,97.0,118.0,124.0,119.0,103.0,95.0,88.0,81.0,96.0,90.0,102.0,95.0,104.0,132.0,126.0,121.0,108.0,100.0,93.0,86.0,102.0,96.0,110.0,103.0,112.0,121.0,128.0,124.0,113.0,105.0,97.0,89.0,108.0,101.0,148.0,110.0,119.0,127.0,134.0,130.0,119.0,110.0,102.0,94.0,115.0,109.0,165.0,178.0,152.0,140.0,145.0,141.0,131.0,124.0,126.0,118.0,124.0,118.0,131.0,138.0,146.0,154.0,160.0,156.0,198.0,148.0,139.0,128.0,136.0,130.0,143.0,150.0,158.0,166.0,173.0,169.0,157.0,148.0,139.0,128.0,148.0,141.0,155.0,163.0,171.0,180.0,188.0,183.0,170.0,161.0,151.0,139.0,158.0,150.0,166.0,174.0,183.0,192.0,201.0,196.0,235.0,186.0,173.0,160.0,155.0,148.0,160.0,167.0,175.0,183.0,190.0,185.0,172.0,163.0,152.0,140.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[26000.0,30000.0,28000.0,25000.0,23000.0,21000.0,19500.0,26000.0,24000.0,28000.0,30000.0,24000.0,29000.0,33000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,22000.0,30000.0,27000.0,32000.0,34000.0,27000.0,33000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,34000.0,30000.0,36000.0,38000.0,30000.0,36000.0,41000.0,39000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,28000.0,38000.0,34000.0,40000.0,43000.0,34000.0,39000.0,44000.0,55000.0,70000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,45000.0,40000.0,46000.0,49000.0,38000.0,42000.0,48000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,33000.0,40000.0,38000.0,45000.0,48000.0,37000.0,41000.0,47000.0,44000.0,39000.0,37000.0,35000.0,32000.0,39000.0,36000.0,43000.0,46000.0,35000.0,38000.0,43000.0,41000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,37000.0,34000.0,40000.0,43000.0,33000.0,36000.0,41000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,29000.0,35000.0,33000.0,38000.0,41000.0,32000.0,34000.0,39000.0,37000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,34000.0,31000.0,37000.0,40000.0,30000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1510.0,1285.0,1390.0,1260.0,1075.0,965.0,910.0,1610.0,1810.0,1485.0,1690.0,2030.0,1340.0,1135.0,1230.0,1135.0,955.0,850.0,805.0,1460.0,1585.0,1325.0,1455.0,1760.0,1190.0,1010.0,1095.0,1005.0,875.0,790.0,745.0,1280.0,1435.0,1205.0,1325.0,1585.0,1285.0,1095.0,1175.0,1080.0,930.0,830.0,785.0,1390.0,1540.0,1290.0,1420.0,1695.0,1375.0,1165.0,1255.0,1140.0,980.0,875.0,830.0,3300.0,1950.0,1510.0,10800.0,23800.0,4250.0,1980.0,1510.0,1300.0,1100.0,985.0,925.0,1640.0,1790.0,1500.0,1630.0,1990.0,1420.0,1175.0,1250.0,1125.0,975.0,875.0,825.0,1510.0,1670.0,1400.0,1515.0,1810.0,1540.0,1270.0,1360.0,1225.0,1040.0,930.0,875.0,1600.0,1760.0,1470.0,1595.0,1940.0,1620.0,1335.0,1425.0,1285.0,1095.0,975.0,915.0,1690.0,1855.0,1550.0,1690.0,2050.0,1710.0,1405.0,1500.0,1350.0,1150.0,1020.0,955.0,4700.0,2950.0,3600.0,28500.0,56000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,2000.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1900.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1600.0,1600.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[45.0,50.0,60.0,55.0,70.0,60.0,65.0,70.0,80.0,75.0,90.0,105.0,130.0,160.0,210.0,260.0,380.0,520.0,900.0,460.0,260.0,210.0,190.0,240.0,280.0,330.0,400.0,460.0,540.0,760.0,1120.0,1380.0,640.0,420.0,310.0,290.0,310.0,520.0,290.0,210.0,180.0,220.0,240.0,220.0,190.0,180.0,210.0,260.0,270.0,250.0,220.0,330.0,430.0,580.0,390.0,310.0,260.0,240.0,220.0,300.0,620.0,400.0,260.0,210.0,200.0,260.0,310.0,280.0,240.0,210.0,250.0,310.0,330.0,270.0,250.0,230.0,260.0,340.0,420.0,340.0,300.0,340.0,850.0,1800.0,1080.0,470.0,300.0,240.0,210.0,240.0,300.0,260.0,220.0,200.0,190.0,250.0,230.0,200.0,190.0,170.0,180.0,580.0,350.0,250.0,220.0,200.0,180.0,240.0,210.0,520.0,260.0,200.0,180.0,220.0,280.0,250.0,700.0,280.0,200.0,310.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[724.0,782.0,836.0,891.0,814.0,768.0,801.0,779.0,752.0,824.0,793.0,681.0,708.0,779.0,858.0,917.0,872.0,803.0,838.0,789.0,761.0,824.0,766.0,672.0,691.0,746.0,819.0,867.0,803.0,757.0,779.0,742.0,728.0,781.0,734.0,633.0,662.0,718.0,789.0,841.0,798.0,724.0,758.0,719.0,696.0,747.0,714.0,617.0,653.0,704.0,826.0,793.0,762.0,731.0,768.0,742.0,711.0,758.0,729.0,638.0,634.0,687.0,744.0,789.0,752.0,697.0,728.0,691.0,678.0,721.0,682.0,596.0,628.0,683.0,753.0,812.0,771.0,703.0,742.0,709.0,681.0,734.0,692.0,604.0,616.0,668.0,731.0,779.0,746.0,689.0,718.0,673.0,661.0,713.0,674.0,589.0,615.0,672.0,748.0,821.0,773.0,706.0,738.0,695.0,681.0,729.0,691.0,602.0,593.0,649.0,718.0,774.0,739.0,682.0,711.0,674.0,652.0,703.0,666.0,578.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[560.0,520.0,540.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,510.0,530.0,520.0,540.0,530.0,510.0,500.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,480.0,470.0,470.0,460.0,470.0,480.0,470.0,450.0,460.0,480.0,470.0,455.0,440.0,430.0,425.0,420.0,430.0,440.0,440.0,420.0,430.0,450.0,440.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,395.0,390.0,400.0,410.0,470.0,450.0,520.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,410.0,420.0,430.0,430.0,410.0,420.0,430.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,385.0,380.0,375.0,385.0,395.0,400.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,385.0,370.0,360.0,355.0,350.0,345.0,355.0,365.0,370.0,355.0,360.0,375.0,365.0,350.0,345.0,340.0,335.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,345.0,350.0,365.0,355.0,340.0,335.0,330.0,325.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,335.0,340.0,355.0,345.0,330.0,325.0,320.0,315.0,310.0,320.0,330.0]}},{"title":"New (film)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"New (film)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5849,5196,5792,6149,6800,7692,6450,6174,5873,6155,7442,6445,5891,6444,8475,7769,7221,7116,8000,8156,11938,15519,13231,10447,7139,5531,6505,5465,8517,5295,5673,5450,5168,4876,5654,5926,5748,4811,6168,5368,7948,6763,6113,6452,6966,6647,8347,7226,7075,6538,8863,14612,11301,9261,10527,8954,6877,5860,5672,6188,6536,5846,8970,7645,12779,10189,9711,10314,7312,7107,11804,18382,13028,8974,8335,6552,11491,9815,9729,9856,7787,8792,8912,13021,14675,13340,9550,8719,10250,12045,12706,9732,25396,17057,18543,12762,12064,10740,17579,18331,10357,8318,15084,25868,19896,13789,9673,12031,16383,8531,10716,12697,13057,9818,11698,9191,8635,8243,6562,6981],"flat_reference_value":17020.02941996369,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2600.0,2400.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,4200.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,4800.0,7200.0,5300.0,4300.0,4000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4000.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,3900.0,3500.0,3700.0,4000.0,5800.0,4800.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,3700.0,4300.0,5200.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,4500.0,4700.0,5100.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,8800.0,8500.0,6800.0,5600.0,5700.0,5900.0,6200.0,5700.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,5900.0,5700.0,6100.0,6000.0,5400.0,5600.0,5900.0,6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,6300.0,10500.0,8500.0,11000.0,9000.0,7600.0,6500.0,6800.0,7100.0,7500.0,7000.0,11000.0,11500.0,9400.0,7800.0,7400.0,7900.0,7600.0,6800.0,7000.0,7300.0,9200.0,8000.0,7700.0,7500.0,7200.0,7600.0,7300.0,7800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[2350.0,2180.0,2310.0,2420.0,2590.0,3180.0,2760.0,2640.0,2710.0,2890.0,2840.0,2980.0,3120.0,2810.0,3050.0,3190.0,3310.0,3240.0,3380.0,3450.0,4620.0,5180.0,4190.0,3560.0,3420.0,3080.0,3290.0,3360.0,3510.0,3340.0,3480.0,3390.0,3270.0,3410.0,3350.0,3490.0,3440.0,3120.0,3380.0,3470.0,4380.0,3890.0,3620.0,3540.0,3460.0,3590.0,3510.0,3680.0,3710.0,3450.0,3980.0,4820.0,5140.0,4790.0,4650.0,4520.0,4310.0,4240.0,4180.0,4290.0,4210.0,3840.0,4060.0,4190.0,4620.0,4480.0,4310.0,4150.0,4090.0,4230.0,5640.0,6120.0,4850.0,4120.0,4260.0,4180.0,4940.0,4510.0,4320.0,4190.0,4080.0,4210.0,4140.0,4560.0,4390.0,3920.0,4180.0,4250.0,4370.0,4290.0,4460.0,4580.0,6740.0,5890.0,6420.0,5310.0,4780.0,4320.0,4450.0,4390.0,4520.0,4480.0,6150.0,5840.0,5490.0,5120.0,4460.0,4380.0,5140.0,4190.0,4760.0,4310.0,4080.0,3940.0,4120.0,3980.0,3850.0,3920.0,3790.0,3880.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[3100.0,2900.0,3200.0,3050.0,3300.0,4400.0,4100.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3250.0,3300.0,3150.0,3400.0,3200.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,3800.0,6200.0,8900.0,6800.0,4500.0,4100.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,3950.0,3800.0,3900.0,3750.0,3850.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3950.0,4100.0,5600.0,5100.0,4300.0,4100.0,3950.0,4200.0,4050.0,4150.0,4200.0,4000.0,5200.0,6800.0,6500.0,5900.0,5400.0,5100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4800.0,4900.0,5200.0,9400.0,11200.0,7800.0,6100.0,5400.0,5200.0,7500.0,6900.0,5800.0,5300.0,5100.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,4800.0,5100.0,4900.0,5300.0,5100.0,5400.0,5800.0,12500.0,11800.0,9200.0,7600.0,6200.0,5700.0,5500.0,5300.0,5600.0,5800.0,8100.0,8400.0,6700.0,5900.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,5300.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[3900.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2700.0,3200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4700.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,5400.0,5800.0,4900.0,4600.0,4600.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,5600.0,6800.0,7000.0,6500.0,6400.0,6200.0,5900.0,5800.0,5700.0,5800.0,6000.0,5600.0,5800.0,6000.0,6600.0,6400.0,6200.0,6000.0,5900.0,6100.0,8200.0,8800.0,7200.0,6400.0,6400.0,6300.0,7400.0,7000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6100.0,6200.0,6100.0,6300.0,6600.0,6100.0,6300.0,6400.0,6500.0,6400.0,6800.0,7000.0,10200.0,8800.0,9200.0,8000.0,7400.0,6800.0,6900.0,6900.0,7000.0,7200.0,8600.0,9400.0,9200.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,7200.0,6400.0,6800.0,6500.0,6400.0,6200.0,6300.0,6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,5900.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[58.0,52.0,61.0,49.0,55.0,47.0,60.0,53.0,48.0,56.0,50.0,62.0,55.0,49.0,57.0,51.0,46.0,53.0,58.0,47.0,52.0,45.0,50.0,44.0,48.0,53.0,46.0,51.0,44.0,49.0,55.0,43.0,47.0,50.0,42.0,46.0,45.0,50.0,43.0,47.0,41.0,46.0,52.0,44.0,40.0,45.0,38.0,42.0,40.0,45.0,38.0,43.0,47.0,41.0,44.0,39.0,42.0,36.0,40.0,44.0,41.0,37.0,43.0,39.0,35.0,40.0,44.0,38.0,42.0,36.0,39.0,43.0,38.0,42.0,36.0,40.0,35.0,39.0,43.0,37.0,34.0,38.0,33.0,37.0,36.0,40.0,35.0,38.0,34.0,37.0,41.0,35.0,39.0,44.0,68.0,75.0,60.0,52.0,48.0,45.0,50.0,55.0,85.0,95.0,78.0,60.0,52.0,58.0,50.0,46.0,72.0,65.0,54.0,48.0,44.0,41.0,45.0,38.0,42.0,47.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[782.0,618.0,750.0,689.0,743.0,771.0,802.0,720.0,673.0,712.0,648.0,580.0,695.0,545.0,663.0,610.0,658.0,682.0,710.0,638.0,597.0,629.0,575.0,512.0,628.0,492.0,600.0,551.0,595.0,617.0,642.0,576.0,539.0,569.0,519.0,463.0,583.0,457.0,557.0,512.0,552.0,573.0,596.0,535.0,500.0,528.0,482.0,430.0,561.0,440.0,748.0,812.0,690.0,551.0,573.0,514.0,481.0,508.0,463.0,413.0,516.0,404.0,493.0,453.0,488.0,507.0,527.0,473.0,443.0,467.0,834.0,380.0,482.0,378.0,461.0,423.0,457.0,473.0,493.0,443.0,414.0,689.0,399.0,356.0,449.0,352.0,428.0,394.0,425.0,441.0,458.0,412.0,720.0,406.0,371.0,331.0,415.0,325.0,397.0,364.0,393.0,408.0,424.0,381.0,357.0,376.0,343.0,306.0,381.0,299.0,364.0,335.0,361.0,374.0,390.0,350.0,327.0,345.0,315.0,281.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3800.0,3150.0,3000.0,3350.0,3250.0,3100.0,3050.0,3150.0,3250.0,3650.0,3450.0,3300.0,3900.0,3250.0,3150.0,3500.0,3350.0,3250.0,3200.0,3350.0,8200.0,11800.0,6100.0,4100.0,3850.0,3150.0,3000.0,3350.0,3250.0,3150.0,3100.0,3200.0,3350.0,3700.0,3500.0,3350.0,3950.0,3300.0,3200.0,3550.0,3450.0,3300.0,3350.0,3300.0,3400.0,3750.0,3550.0,3450.0,3850.0,3250.0,3050.0,2850.0,3050.0,3450.0,3650.0,3750.0,3700.0,3950.0,3800.0,3700.0,4350.0,3800.0,3700.0,4150.0,4000.0,3900.0,3950.0,4000.0,4100.0,4500.0,4300.0,4150.0,4950.0,4250.0,4100.0,4650.0,4450.0,6600.0,5300.0,4700.0,4750.0,6150.0,5250.0,4700.0,5650.0,4850.0,4650.0,5350.0,5150.0,6350.0,5500.0,5300.0,17500.0,23500.0,9800.0,6400.0,6350.0,5550.0,5350.0,6050.0,5850.0,5950.0,14200.0,9100.0,6700.0,7050.0,6450.0,6250.0,7350.0,6350.0,6150.0,6950.0,6750.0,6650.0,8200.0,24500.0,13500.0,8200.0,7350.0,6950.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2600.0,2400.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,4500.0,3200.0,2600.0,2800.0,2400.0,2600.0,4200.0,6500.0,9000.0,5000.0,3500.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,5000.0,4200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,5500.0,4500.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,3000.0,7000.0,9000.0,6000.0,4000.0,3500.0,6000.0,4500.0,5000.0,4000.0,3200.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1610.0,1500.0,1160.0,1120.0,1090.0,1060.0,1100.0,1110.0,1160.0,1190.0,1180.0,1130.0,1170.0,1140.0,1090.0,1050.0,1020.0,1000.0,1030.0,1040.0,1090.0,1120.0,1110.0,1060.0,1110.0,1080.0,1030.0,1000.0,970.0,945.0,980.0,990.0,1030.0,1060.0,1050.0,1010.0,1060.0,1030.0,980.0,950.0,920.0,900.0,930.0,940.0,980.0,1010.0,1000.0,960.0,1040.0,1015.0,1110.0,1220.0,1130.0,1020.0,920.0,930.0,970.0,990.0,990.0,945.0,1000.0,970.0,920.0,900.0,870.0,850.0,875.0,1155.0,1300.0,1190.0,945.0,900.0,950.0,920.0,880.0,850.0,830.0,810.0,840.0,850.0,880.0,910.0,900.0,865.0,910.0,880.0,840.0,810.0,790.0,770.0,800.0,805.0,840.0,870.0,850.0,830.0,860.0,840.0,800.0,780.0,750.0,735.0,760.0,920.0,960.0,990.0,810.0,780.0,820.0,790.0,910.0,920.0,710.0,690.0,720.0,730.0,760.0,780.0,770.0,740.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[210.0,198.0,232.0,228.0,246.0,258.0,272.0,258.0,236.0,240.0,252.0,276.0,205.0,195.0,228.0,224.0,242.0,255.0,268.0,255.0,233.0,238.0,250.0,272.0,198.0,188.0,220.0,216.0,234.0,246.0,260.0,247.0,226.0,230.0,242.0,264.0,190.0,182.0,212.0,208.0,226.0,238.0,252.0,240.0,219.0,223.0,234.0,256.0,240.0,235.0,330.0,470.0,440.0,390.0,370.0,345.0,300.0,280.0,285.0,320.0,205.0,198.0,232.0,228.0,246.0,258.0,272.0,258.0,236.0,240.0,252.0,276.0,195.0,188.0,220.0,216.0,234.0,246.0,260.0,247.0,620.0,240.0,250.0,272.0,188.0,181.0,212.0,208.0,226.0,238.0,252.0,240.0,219.0,223.0,234.0,256.0,200.0,205.0,260.0,300.0,420.0,700.0,620.0,750.0,1400.0,1150.0,850.0,950.0,1200.0,1600.0,5200.0,3000.0,2100.0,12000.0,6800.0,4300.0,2900.0,2300.0,2000.0,2400.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[45.0,39.0,43.0,52.0,57.0,49.0,44.0,41.0,48.0,54.0,50.0,46.0,43.0,47.0,40.0,54.0,59.0,52.0,46.0,43.0,51.0,57.0,53.0,49.0,48.0,44.0,41.0,56.0,62.0,55.0,50.0,46.0,53.0,59.0,56.0,51.0,52.0,47.0,45.0,60.0,66.0,58.0,53.0,49.0,57.0,62.0,58.0,54.0,61.0,56.0,53.0,67.0,73.0,65.0,60.0,56.0,64.0,70.0,66.0,61.0,64.0,58.0,55.0,70.0,77.0,69.0,62.0,58.0,66.0,72.0,68.0,63.0,68.0,62.0,59.0,74.0,80.0,72.0,66.0,61.0,70.0,76.0,72.0,68.0,80.0,88.0,98.0,115.0,132.0,150.0,175.0,205.0,250.0,320.0,450.0,600.0,2200.0,1400.0,1600.0,4200.0,9000.0,6800.0,4200.0,2400.0,2600.0,2000.0,1550.0,1400.0,1750.0,2000.0,1850.0,1500.0,1250.0,1050.0,950.0,820.0,700.0,600.0,520.0,480.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[470.0,440.0,455.0,430.0,445.0,420.0,460.0,450.0,430.0,440.0,425.0,450.0,445.0,410.0,430.0,415.0,420.0,400.0,435.0,425.0,410.0,420.0,405.0,430.0,425.0,395.0,410.0,400.0,405.0,385.0,415.0,405.0,390.0,400.0,385.0,410.0,400.0,375.0,390.0,380.0,385.0,365.0,395.0,385.0,370.0,380.0,365.0,390.0,395.0,380.0,420.0,450.0,430.0,410.0,415.0,400.0,385.0,390.0,375.0,395.0,385.0,360.0,375.0,365.0,370.0,350.0,380.0,370.0,355.0,365.0,350.0,375.0,365.0,340.0,355.0,345.0,350.0,330.0,360.0,350.0,335.0,345.0,330.0,355.0,345.0,325.0,340.0,330.0,335.0,315.0,345.0,335.0,320.0,330.0,315.0,340.0,335.0,315.0,330.0,320.0,325.0,305.0,335.0,325.0,310.0,320.0,305.0,330.0,325.0,305.0,320.0,310.0,315.0,295.0,325.0,315.0,300.0,310.0,295.0,320.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[275.0,224.0,209.0,209.0,231.0,242.0,264.0,268.0,220.0,231.0,246.0,286.0,300.0,245.0,228.0,228.0,252.0,264.0,288.0,293.0,240.0,252.0,269.0,312.0,337.0,275.0,257.0,257.0,284.0,297.0,324.0,329.0,270.0,284.0,302.0,351.0,375.0,306.0,285.0,285.0,315.0,330.0,360.0,366.0,300.0,315.0,336.0,390.0,525.0,428.0,399.0,598.0,617.0,647.0,605.0,589.0,462.0,441.0,470.0,546.0,600.0,490.0,456.0,456.0,504.0,528.0,576.0,586.0,480.0,504.0,538.0,624.0,750.0,612.0,720.0,570.0,1000.0,1800.0,1300.0,950.0,820.0,780.0,850.0,920.0,938.0,1100.0,712.0,712.0,788.0,1000.0,1050.0,980.0,750.0,788.0,840.0,975.0,1350.0,867.0,807.0,807.0,1200.0,1150.0,1220.0,1100.0,850.0,892.0,952.0,1105.0,1350.0,1200.0,1450.0,1250.0,1180.0,1150.0,1220.0,1180.0,950.0,997.0,1064.0,1235.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[380.0,370.0,420.0,390.0,410.0,425.0,400.0,390.0,415.0,430.0,400.0,385.0,390.0,405.0,420.0,430.0,455.0,470.0,520.0,610.0,780.0,690.0,550.0,460.0,430.0,415.0,440.0,460.0,470.0,450.0,430.0,455.0,470.0,500.0,475.0,445.0,460.0,470.0,490.0,510.0,760.0,620.0,520.0,500.0,530.0,570.0,520.0,480.0,500.0,490.0,540.0,620.0,700.0,650.0,590.0,560.0,570.0,610.0,580.0,550.0,560.0,540.0,570.0,590.0,600.0,610.0,580.0,590.0,620.0,700.0,880.0,690.0,620.0,600.0,630.0,670.0,700.0,720.0,680.0,650.0,700.0,760.0,720.0,680.0,660.0,640.0,680.0,700.0,720.0,690.0,710.0,780.0,1050.0,850.0,730.0,690.0,680.0,650.0,700.0,720.0,750.0,730.0,760.0,980.0,820.0,740.0,700.0,680.0,930.0,800.0,700.0,680.0,700.0,680.0,710.0,730.0,760.0,820.0,780.0,740.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[260.0,240.0,255.0,230.0,245.0,220.0,210.0,225.0,240.0,250.0,235.0,220.0,230.0,215.0,240.0,225.0,210.0,200.0,205.0,215.0,230.0,225.0,210.0,200.0,215.0,200.0,220.0,205.0,195.0,190.0,185.0,200.0,210.0,205.0,195.0,185.0,200.0,190.0,205.0,195.0,185.0,180.0,175.0,185.0,195.0,190.0,180.0,175.0,190.0,185.0,200.0,215.0,210.0,195.0,185.0,190.0,200.0,195.0,185.0,180.0,180.0,170.0,185.0,175.0,170.0,160.0,165.0,170.0,180.0,175.0,165.0,160.0,165.0,155.0,170.0,160.0,155.0,150.0,150.0,160.0,170.0,165.0,155.0,150.0,160.0,150.0,165.0,155.0,150.0,145.0,145.0,150.0,160.0,155.0,150.0,140.0,155.0,145.0,160.0,150.0,145.0,140.0,140.0,145.0,155.0,150.0,145.0,140.0,150.0,140.0,155.0,145.0,140.0,135.0,135.0,140.0,150.0,145.0,140.0,135.0]}},{"title":"Trachea","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Trachea\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[27833,29992,39504,33167,35417,39793,22641,24601,32041,33439,31756,24983,30563,29268,33794,28427,30517,38576,22805,24085,27829,30291,28036,23177,28300,26516,29906,28449,28843,30949,22566,22645,23910,29034,30530,25975,28912,27636,36125,29851,28874,29082,23750,20539,24261,27469,26248,20456,22459,22017,29212,36757,30541,23540,20589,21588,26142,37709,26142,23591,26116,23207,24893,21059,20252,18711,17641,19128,22947,20723,19105,17441,18559,17147,17951,16164,15875,16513,14513,16685,19605,20472,21102,16800,20256,20443,21974,17800,20266,18205,17495,17618,18811,19815,21447,32449,33223,25398,26414,26074,24454,18150,20522,20033,20093,21900,20366,19627,19050,13579,17620,21976,21084,15469,16396,18379,19379,16619,12960,11659],"flat_reference_value":16935.40590558053,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[57000.0,59000.0,63000.0,61000.0,57000.0,49000.0,46000.0,49000.0,59000.0,65000.0,63000.0,51000.0,61000.0,62000.0,67000.0,63000.0,60000.0,51000.0,49000.0,52000.0,62000.0,69000.0,67000.0,54000.0,64000.0,65000.0,71000.0,68000.0,63000.0,54000.0,51000.0,55000.0,65000.0,73000.0,70000.0,57000.0,67000.0,68000.0,73000.0,71000.0,66000.0,56000.0,53000.0,57000.0,68000.0,76000.0,72000.0,59000.0,71000.0,73000.0,105000.0,98000.0,79000.0,65000.0,60000.0,63000.0,73000.0,81000.0,77000.0,64000.0,74000.0,73000.0,79000.0,75000.0,69000.0,59000.0,56000.0,60000.0,71000.0,79000.0,75000.0,61000.0,71000.0,69000.0,76000.0,72000.0,67000.0,57000.0,54000.0,58000.0,69000.0,76000.0,73000.0,59000.0,69000.0,67000.0,74000.0,69000.0,65000.0,55000.0,52000.0,56000.0,66000.0,73000.0,70000.0,57000.0,66000.0,65000.0,71000.0,67000.0,63000.0,53000.0,50000.0,54000.0,64000.0,70000.0,67000.0,54000.0,63000.0,61000.0,68000.0,64000.0,60000.0,50000.0,47000.0,51000.0,61000.0,67000.0,63000.0,51000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[54200.0,61500.0,60800.0,59400.0,54100.0,41200.0,37800.0,40500.0,55600.0,61200.0,58900.0,46300.0,53400.0,57800.0,62100.0,58700.0,54900.0,40800.0,37200.0,39900.0,54800.0,60500.0,58200.0,45100.0,52900.0,56900.0,60900.0,58400.0,53800.0,39600.0,36800.0,39400.0,53700.0,59800.0,56700.0,44200.0,52100.0,56200.0,60400.0,57900.0,53200.0,39100.0,36500.0,39200.0,54100.0,60100.0,56400.0,44800.0,53600.0,57400.0,64800.0,61900.0,55700.0,44300.0,41200.0,43600.0,56800.0,62400.0,59100.0,48500.0,55200.0,58100.0,61700.0,58300.0,52600.0,40900.0,37900.0,40200.0,52400.0,56900.0,54300.0,43100.0,49800.0,52700.0,56100.0,52400.0,48200.0,37400.0,34800.0,36900.0,47900.0,51800.0,49400.0,39600.0,45700.0,47800.0,50600.0,46900.0,43100.0,33500.0,31400.0,33200.0,42800.0,46200.0,46800.0,58400.0,52300.0,44600.0,46100.0,43800.0,39900.0,31200.0,29400.0,30800.0,39500.0,42700.0,40100.0,32900.0,37400.0,39200.0,41500.0,39600.0,36200.0,28700.0,27100.0,28500.0,36400.0,39300.0,37100.0,30400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[52400.0,61200.0,64800.0,58300.0,51500.0,38100.0,34200.0,38600.0,58100.0,68400.0,69200.0,46100.0,54300.0,63100.0,66500.0,59400.0,52800.0,39200.0,35100.0,39800.0,60200.0,71100.0,70400.0,47500.0,55800.0,62900.0,67400.0,60800.0,53600.0,40500.0,36200.0,41100.0,61500.0,72800.0,71600.0,48200.0,56400.0,64200.0,68100.0,59700.0,53100.0,39600.0,35400.0,40200.0,59800.0,70500.0,68900.0,46300.0,54600.0,59300.0,58100.0,51400.0,48200.0,36500.0,34100.0,38400.0,55200.0,66100.0,65300.0,44200.0,51800.0,58400.0,63200.0,56100.0,49400.0,36100.0,33200.0,37500.0,54300.0,64500.0,63100.0,42800.0,49200.0,56400.0,61300.0,54200.0,47600.0,34400.0,31500.0,35800.0,52100.0,61800.0,60400.0,41200.0,48100.0,54300.0,58600.0,51200.0,45100.0,32800.0,29600.0,33700.0,49500.0,58400.0,57100.0,38500.0,45600.0,51800.0,55400.0,48900.0,43200.0,30900.0,28100.0,32200.0,46800.0,54600.0,53500.0,36200.0,43400.0,49200.0,52800.0,46500.0,41100.0,29400.0,26900.0,30800.0,44700.0,52100.0,51200.0,34800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,57500.0,59500.0,57500.0,55000.0,48000.0,45000.0,46500.0,55000.0,59500.0,59500.0,48000.0,49500.0,54500.0,56000.0,54500.0,52000.0,45500.0,42500.0,44000.0,52000.0,56000.0,56000.0,45500.0,45500.0,50500.0,52000.0,50500.0,48000.0,42000.0,39500.0,41000.0,48000.0,52000.0,52000.0,42000.0,43500.0,48500.0,49500.0,48500.0,46000.0,40500.0,37500.0,39000.0,46000.0,49500.0,49500.0,40500.0,43000.0,47000.0,56000.0,53000.0,46000.0,39500.0,37000.0,38000.0,45000.0,48500.0,48000.0,39500.0,39000.0,43000.0,44500.0,43000.0,41000.0,36000.0,33500.0,35000.0,41000.0,44000.0,44000.0,36000.0,35000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,32500.0,30500.0,31500.0,37000.0,40000.0,40000.0,32500.0,32500.0,35500.0,36500.0,35500.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,34000.0,36500.0,36500.0,30000.0,29500.0,32500.0,33500.0,32500.0,31000.0,27500.0,25500.0,26500.0,31000.0,33500.0,33500.0,27500.0,26500.0,29500.0,30000.0,29500.0,28000.0,24500.0,23000.0,24000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,24500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[79000.0,80000.0,82000.0,78000.0,76000.0,66000.0,63000.0,65000.0,76000.0,80000.0,79000.0,68000.0,75000.0,74000.0,77000.0,72000.0,71000.0,61000.0,58000.0,60000.0,69000.0,73000.0,72000.0,61000.0,66000.0,64000.0,66000.0,62000.0,61000.0,53000.0,51000.0,53000.0,60000.0,63000.0,62000.0,53000.0,59000.0,57000.0,59000.0,56000.0,55000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,55000.0,58000.0,57000.0,50000.0,57000.0,57000.0,66000.0,70000.0,65000.0,56000.0,52000.0,51000.0,56000.0,59000.0,58000.0,52000.0,56000.0,54000.0,56000.0,52000.0,51000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,48000.0,50000.0,49000.0,42000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,37000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,39000.0,39000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,27000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[19420.0,21180.0,22310.0,21050.0,21270.0,18140.0,16890.0,18260.0,20870.0,22410.0,20930.0,16150.0,20680.0,23120.0,24260.0,23080.0,23340.0,19750.0,18920.0,20140.0,23210.0,24370.0,22860.0,17980.0,22540.0,25180.0,26420.0,25130.0,25560.0,21870.0,20490.0,21930.0,25240.0,26380.0,25010.0,19320.0,25610.0,28240.0,29870.0,28430.0,28690.0,24320.0,22910.0,24580.0,28460.0,29920.0,28180.0,21740.0,28130.0,30460.0,49850.0,74620.0,44910.0,33270.0,29840.0,31590.0,34210.0,35780.0,34160.0,27690.0,29940.0,32780.0,34310.0,33150.0,33420.0,28240.0,26380.0,27910.0,32960.0,34280.0,32870.0,25240.0,30520.0,33860.0,35290.0,34180.0,34460.0,29180.0,27240.0,28940.0,34060.0,35320.0,33940.0,26180.0,31380.0,34720.0,36240.0,35120.0,35460.0,30080.0,28160.0,30220.0,35140.0,36410.0,34920.0,26540.0,32260.0,35940.0,37380.0,36210.0,36540.0,31160.0,29240.0,31320.0,36180.0,37460.0,35940.0,27380.0,33180.0,37020.0,38460.0,37290.0,37620.0,32240.0,30320.0,32410.0,37260.0,38540.0,37020.0,28220.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[38400.0,30900.0,30300.0,28200.0,25700.0,22100.0,20200.0,21700.0,25800.0,29900.0,30400.0,26100.0,31400.0,29600.0,29300.0,27100.0,24800.0,21200.0,19300.0,20900.0,25000.0,28800.0,29200.0,25200.0,30200.0,28500.0,28100.0,26000.0,23800.0,20300.0,18600.0,20100.0,23900.0,27700.0,28150.0,24200.0,29500.0,28000.0,27500.0,25600.0,23300.0,19900.0,18200.0,19700.0,23500.0,27100.0,27600.0,23800.0,33500.0,41000.0,78500.0,70000.0,54000.0,39000.0,33000.0,33500.0,39000.0,42500.0,44800.0,40200.0,36500.0,34800.0,34000.0,31200.0,28200.0,24400.0,22300.0,24200.0,28900.0,33400.0,33800.0,29000.0,32600.0,30800.0,30000.0,28100.0,25400.0,22000.0,20000.0,21800.0,26000.0,30000.0,30400.0,26000.0,29800.0,28600.0,27800.0,25900.0,23600.0,20200.0,18500.0,20200.0,24000.0,27800.0,28200.0,24000.0,29000.0,27400.0,26700.0,25000.0,22700.0,19500.0,17800.0,19400.0,23100.0,26700.0,27000.0,23100.0,27800.0,26300.0,25600.0,24000.0,21700.0,18700.0,17100.0,18600.0,22100.0,25600.0,25900.0,22200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[10300.0,10100.0,9500.0,8900.0,8600.0,7800.0,7600.0,8100.0,10300.0,10200.0,9400.0,8500.0,10100.0,9900.0,9300.0,8700.0,8400.0,7700.0,7500.0,7900.0,10100.0,10000.0,9200.0,8300.0,9600.0,9500.0,8900.0,8300.0,8000.0,7300.0,7100.0,7600.0,9600.0,9500.0,8800.0,7900.0,9200.0,9000.0,8400.0,8000.0,7600.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,9200.0,9100.0,8400.0,7500.0,9200.0,9000.0,16000.0,13600.0,10300.0,8000.0,7500.0,7900.0,10600.0,10500.0,9600.0,8300.0,10900.0,10200.0,9100.0,8100.0,7800.0,7100.0,7000.0,7400.0,9400.0,9300.0,8600.0,7700.0,8700.0,8600.0,8000.0,7600.0,7300.0,6600.0,6500.0,6900.0,8700.0,8700.0,8000.0,7200.0,8200.0,8000.0,7500.0,7100.0,6800.0,6200.0,6100.0,6400.0,8200.0,8100.0,7400.0,6700.0,7800.0,7700.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,6000.0,5800.0,6200.0,7800.0,7800.0,7100.0,6400.0,7500.0,7400.0,6900.0,6500.0,6200.0,5700.0,5600.0,5900.0,7500.0,7400.0,6800.0,6200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[41800.0,41040.0,39520.0,37240.0,35720.0,33440.0,32680.0,34200.0,38000.0,39900.0,41040.0,41800.0,41250.0,40500.0,39000.0,36750.0,35250.0,33000.0,32250.0,33750.0,37500.0,39375.0,40500.0,41250.0,40700.0,39960.0,38480.0,36260.0,34780.0,32560.0,31820.0,33300.0,37000.0,38850.0,39960.0,40700.0,40150.0,39420.0,37960.0,35770.0,34310.0,32120.0,31390.0,32850.0,36500.0,38325.0,39420.0,40150.0,50400.0,49520.0,55760.0,58120.0,49360.0,41720.0,39840.0,41600.0,46000.0,48200.0,49520.0,50400.0,47000.0,46200.0,43600.0,39200.0,37600.0,35200.0,34400.0,36000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43200.0,44000.0,41800.0,41040.0,39520.0,37240.0,35720.0,33440.0,32680.0,34200.0,38000.0,39900.0,41040.0,41800.0,40700.0,39960.0,38480.0,36260.0,34780.0,32560.0,31820.0,33300.0,37000.0,38850.0,39960.0,40700.0,39600.0,38880.0,37440.0,35280.0,33840.0,31680.0,30960.0,32400.0,36000.0,37800.0,38880.0,39600.0,38500.0,37800.0,36400.0,34300.0,32900.0,30800.0,30100.0,31500.0,35000.0,36750.0,37800.0,38500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[51500.0,49900.0,48400.0,46800.0,45600.0,42100.0,41400.0,45000.0,54000.0,52400.0,50300.0,50000.0,55400.0,53800.0,52100.0,50400.0,49200.0,45400.0,44600.0,48500.0,58100.0,56400.0,54100.0,53900.0,59500.0,57700.0,55800.0,54000.0,52700.0,48600.0,47800.0,51900.0,62200.0,60300.0,57800.0,57500.0,63500.0,61600.0,59600.0,57600.0,56200.0,51800.0,50900.0,55300.0,66200.0,64200.0,61500.0,61200.0,67500.0,68000.0,140000.0,129000.0,95500.0,74300.0,70200.0,70400.0,77200.0,78200.0,81500.0,77800.0,82000.0,72800.0,67100.0,64800.0,63100.0,58200.0,57200.0,71300.0,85400.0,79100.0,68900.0,75400.0,81300.0,71100.0,68200.0,65400.0,63200.0,57900.0,56400.0,60700.0,72100.0,69300.0,65900.0,65100.0,71100.0,68400.0,65600.0,62900.0,60800.0,55600.0,54200.0,58400.0,69300.0,66600.0,63300.0,62500.0,68300.0,65700.0,63000.0,60400.0,58400.0,53400.0,52000.0,56000.0,66500.0,63900.0,60800.0,60000.0,65700.0,85300.0,81900.0,75500.0,56200.0,51400.0,50000.0,53900.0,64000.0,61500.0,58400.0,57600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[29300.0,32400.0,33300.0,31800.0,30800.0,25000.0,22600.0,24500.0,35400.0,36100.0,32700.0,26000.0,32300.0,35600.0,36700.0,34900.0,33900.0,27600.0,24900.0,26900.0,39000.0,39700.0,36000.0,28600.0,35200.0,38900.0,40000.0,38100.0,37000.0,30100.0,27100.0,29300.0,42500.0,43300.0,39200.0,31200.0,38100.0,42100.0,43300.0,41300.0,40100.0,32600.0,29400.0,31800.0,46100.0,46900.0,42500.0,33800.0,60600.0,67000.0,86100.0,115000.0,86000.0,57000.0,46700.0,50500.0,73200.0,74500.0,108200.0,72500.0,61100.0,54000.0,55600.0,68900.0,51400.0,41800.0,37700.0,40800.0,59100.0,60100.0,54500.0,52000.0,62400.0,54600.0,48900.0,46600.0,45200.0,36700.0,33200.0,35900.0,52000.0,52900.0,48000.0,38100.0,39100.0,43200.0,44400.0,42400.0,41100.0,33400.0,30200.0,32600.0,47200.0,48100.0,43600.0,34600.0,36200.0,40000.0,41100.0,39200.0,38000.0,30900.0,27900.0,30200.0,43700.0,44500.0,40300.0,32000.0,32300.0,35600.0,36700.0,34900.0,33900.0,27600.0,21900.0,23600.0,34200.0,34900.0,31600.0,25100.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[14900.0,13600.0,14200.0,14700.0,14100.0,13300.0,12700.0,12300.0,13900.0,15100.0,15100.0,14100.0,15400.0,14100.0,14800.0,15500.0,14900.0,14100.0,13500.0,13100.0,14600.0,15900.0,16000.0,15000.0,16300.0,14900.0,15600.0,16300.0,15800.0,15000.0,14200.0,13800.0,15400.0,16700.0,16900.0,15900.0,17500.0,16000.0,16700.0,17500.0,17000.0,16100.0,15300.0,14900.0,16600.0,17900.0,18100.0,17100.0,18500.0,19600.0,72000.0,176000.0,107000.0,55000.0,36500.0,28800.0,28200.0,33100.0,35300.0,29500.0,34200.0,31900.0,29400.0,29800.0,28900.0,28000.0,27200.0,26700.0,28700.0,31200.0,33000.0,29000.0,40800.0,34900.0,31300.0,30500.0,29600.0,28800.0,28000.0,27500.0,29600.0,31400.0,33200.0,29400.0,32400.0,30100.0,31100.0,31800.0,30800.0,30000.0,28900.0,28400.0,30600.0,32400.0,34200.0,30400.0,32900.0,30500.0,31700.0,32300.0,31300.0,30400.0,29200.0,28700.0,31000.0,32900.0,34800.0,30900.0,33800.0,31600.0,33000.0,33900.0,32700.0,31700.0,30500.0,29900.0,32200.0,34200.0,36200.0,32100.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,3900.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,4000.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3900.0,4900.0,5100.0,5200.0,4100.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5200.0,4900.0,3700.0,3600.0,4000.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,4200.0,5100.0,5300.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,5300.0,5500.0,5500.0,4400.0,5300.0,5500.0,5700.0,5500.0,5100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4300.0,5200.0,5400.0,5400.0,4300.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,4900.0,3800.0,3700.0,4100.0,5000.0,5200.0,5200.0,4100.0,4900.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3900.0,4800.0,5000.0,5000.0,3900.0,4700.0,4900.0,5100.0,4800.0,4500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4800.0,3800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4900.0,4600.0,4300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,4400.0,4600.0,4600.0,3600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[7830.0,6720.0,6490.0,6640.0,7680.0,7120.0,7250.0,7780.0,8410.0,7860.0,7320.0,6620.0,8420.0,7270.0,6900.0,7100.0,7390.0,7610.0,7740.0,8190.0,8920.0,8300.0,7980.0,7060.0,9090.0,7860.0,7520.0,7620.0,7960.0,8210.0,8370.0,8980.0,9510.0,10030.0,8520.0,7630.0,9870.0,8430.0,8170.0,8260.0,8610.0,8870.0,9050.0,9670.0,10400.0,9740.0,9230.0,8240.0,10520.0,10260.0,9670.0,9580.0,9650.0,9470.0,9690.0,10330.0,10990.0,10470.0,9820.0,8810.0,10840.0,9370.0,8980.0,9050.0,9490.0,9760.0,10020.0,10640.0,11360.0,10880.0,10160.0,9080.0,10420.0,8990.0,8620.0,8710.0,9100.0,9380.0,9580.0,10220.0,10910.0,10430.0,9740.0,8730.0,9970.0,8610.0,8250.0,8350.0,8720.0,8980.0,9170.0,9810.0,10450.0,9970.0,9320.0,8360.0,9860.0,8510.0,9310.0,8280.0,8630.0,8870.0,9080.0,9720.0,10410.0,9870.0,9240.0,8270.0,10200.0,8790.0,8430.0,8520.0,8900.0,9170.0,9380.0,10040.0,11520.0,10210.0,9560.0,8540.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[14520.0,13280.0,13840.0,13050.0,12890.0,12610.0,12740.0,12580.0,13120.0,13690.0,14350.0,14920.0,15140.0,13960.0,14510.0,13780.0,13520.0,13190.0,13360.0,13240.0,13810.0,14320.0,15080.0,15460.0,14890.0,13640.0,14280.0,13410.0,13180.0,12850.0,12940.0,12790.0,13360.0,13950.0,14620.0,15010.0,14980.0,13720.0,14360.0,13540.0,13220.0,12980.0,13040.0,12860.0,13410.0,14020.0,14730.0,15210.0,15180.0,16840.0,24850.0,29120.0,25260.0,22640.0,21580.0,20790.0,21420.0,22610.0,24280.0,23540.0,24980.0,22860.0,23240.0,21910.0,20780.0,19820.0,19460.0,18930.0,19210.0,19860.0,20740.0,21320.0,20560.0,18420.0,17890.0,16980.0,16340.0,15780.0,15520.0,15190.0,15740.0,16380.0,17210.0,17860.0,17340.0,15720.0,16210.0,15180.0,14860.0,14420.0,14290.0,14110.0,14780.0,15360.0,16090.0,16640.0,16280.0,14810.0,15260.0,14420.0,14090.0,13710.0,13580.0,13390.0,13960.0,14520.0,15280.0,15840.0,15490.0,14160.0,14630.0,13780.0,13490.0,13120.0,12980.0,12840.0,13410.0,13980.0,14720.0,15260.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4200.0,4480.0,4600.0,4320.0,4200.0,3400.0,3120.0,3400.0,4200.0,4480.0,4400.0,3400.0,4150.0,4500.0,4550.0,4300.0,4180.0,3380.0,3150.0,3370.0,4220.0,4450.0,4380.0,3400.0,4100.0,4370.0,4480.0,4200.0,4090.0,3320.0,3050.0,3300.0,4100.0,4350.0,4280.0,3300.0,3990.0,4250.0,4370.0,4100.0,3980.0,3230.0,2960.0,3220.0,3980.0,4240.0,4170.0,3220.0,4300.0,4600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4500.0,3500.0,3200.0,3480.0,4300.0,4590.0,4500.0,3480.0,4150.0,4400.0,4500.0,4280.0,4150.0,3420.0,3100.0,3380.0,4180.0,4420.0,4350.0,3380.0,3900.0,4150.0,4250.0,4000.0,3880.0,3150.0,2880.0,3140.0,3880.0,4130.0,4060.0,3140.0,3680.0,3920.0,4020.0,3780.0,3670.0,2980.0,2730.0,2970.0,3670.0,3910.0,3850.0,2970.0,3470.0,3700.0,3790.0,3560.0,3460.0,2800.0,2570.0,2800.0,3460.0,3690.0,3620.0,2800.0,3150.0,3350.0,3440.0,3230.0,3140.0,2540.0,2330.0,2540.0,3140.0,3350.0,3290.0,2540.0]}},{"title":"IIHF World Ranking","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"IIHF World Ranking\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[9499,6757,6801,11781,36034,7923,5579,11638,16893,5896,6222,10401,11085,8313,8445,17549,42301,10061,8419,8379,9244,16147,13854,19067,19959,76605,10365,17232,42565,11941,11506,9138,5340,7750,9322,15135,10344,5925,5986,11869,50311,7454,4241,4273,4478,5707,6999,8023,8793,7256,4749,5392,5786,3499,3720,5155,4785,4803,4673,7977,9135,5372,6198,6431,19955,23316,15739,15422,6002,5688,6850,7666,7384,44833,8876,6340,30278,5902,3274,4436,3702,3392,5671,9325,9486,4178,6555,10388,44667,6283,4101,4729,4022,4956,5367,7342,9036,7218,6092,10247,46952,7252,7965,8762,5124,4410,4996,8734,10320,30014,7750,11594,46553,9175,5894,5842,6284,7544,11253,20221],"flat_reference_value":17018.415415271218,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6200.0,7100.0,6800.0,8800.0,38000.0,16000.0,6700.0,6500.0,12000.0,6900.0,6100.0,6500.0,6900.0,7600.0,7100.0,10000.0,42000.0,18000.0,7200.0,6800.0,7100.0,6800.0,6500.0,7200.0,10000.0,42000.0,13000.0,10500.0,46000.0,19000.0,7600.0,7100.0,7300.0,7000.0,6700.0,7600.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,11000.0,48000.0,20000.0,8000.0,7400.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,7500.0,6100.0,10000.0,7800.0,6500.0,6500.0,6800.0,6800.0,6500.0,7400.0,7900.0,7600.0,7500.0,9200.0,25000.0,30000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7400.0,8400.0,10000.0,48000.0,15000.0,11000.0,52000.0,22000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8200.0,7800.0,7500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8700.0,8500.0,12000.0,55000.0,23000.0,9000.0,8200.0,8300.0,8000.0,7700.0,8700.0,8800.0,9000.0,8800.0,12500.0,58000.0,24000.0,9200.0,10000.0,9500.0,8200.0,8000.0,9000.0,9200.0,18000.0,10000.0,13000.0,62000.0,25000.0,9800.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,8500.0,10000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[13200.0,10400.0,9800.0,18500.0,82000.0,11500.0,7200.0,7800.0,16400.0,7600.0,7400.0,10200.0,13800.0,8900.0,9600.0,19200.0,84500.0,11200.0,7100.0,7300.0,7900.0,7800.0,8500.0,11400.0,16500.0,89000.0,13400.0,18900.0,81000.0,10800.0,7000.0,7100.0,7400.0,7500.0,7800.0,10900.0,14600.0,8800.0,9900.0,21500.0,91000.0,13200.0,7400.0,7500.0,7800.0,7700.0,8100.0,11800.0,15200.0,10500.0,9400.0,11200.0,8600.0,5800.0,5500.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6500.0,11500.0,15800.0,8400.0,8900.0,12800.0,52000.0,46500.0,8200.0,22500.0,9600.0,8100.0,8700.0,12900.0,16800.0,86000.0,17500.0,19800.0,88000.0,14500.0,7900.0,15400.0,9200.0,7600.0,7900.0,12400.0,16200.0,9100.0,10600.0,22400.0,93500.0,14800.0,7800.0,8100.0,8300.0,7900.0,8200.0,12600.0,15900.0,11200.0,10800.0,23500.0,96000.0,14200.0,7600.0,19500.0,14800.0,7800.0,8100.0,12200.0,15600.0,41000.0,11400.0,21800.0,89000.0,13900.0,7500.0,7800.0,8400.0,8600.0,9800.0,15400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[8400.0,7800.0,7200.0,11500.0,38400.0,12600.0,6800.0,6100.0,8900.0,6300.0,5900.0,7500.0,8700.0,7600.0,7400.0,12100.0,41200.0,13400.0,6900.0,6300.0,7100.0,6800.0,7900.0,9400.0,12800.0,36500.0,9800.0,14200.0,45100.0,14700.0,7200.0,6500.0,6900.0,6700.0,6400.0,8200.0,9100.0,7900.0,8100.0,13600.0,47300.0,15100.0,7800.0,6700.0,7300.0,6900.0,7200.0,8900.0,9800.0,8100.0,6200.0,6500.0,14800.0,8700.0,5800.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,6200.0,7800.0,8900.0,7600.0,8100.0,11200.0,29800.0,33400.0,8200.0,11500.0,8400.0,7300.0,8100.0,10500.0,13900.0,41200.0,11600.0,15400.0,54600.0,17800.0,8900.0,8400.0,7900.0,7400.0,7700.0,9600.0,10800.0,8900.0,9300.0,14900.0,51300.0,16500.0,8700.0,7600.0,7900.0,7300.0,7800.0,9700.0,11200.0,9500.0,9900.0,16400.0,58200.0,18200.0,9100.0,11400.0,10200.0,8100.0,8400.0,10500.0,11600.0,9800.0,10100.0,16800.0,53500.0,17400.0,8900.0,8100.0,8300.0,7900.0,8500.0,11200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[11500.0,11800.0,10800.0,13000.0,26000.0,12500.0,7800.0,8200.0,10500.0,10000.0,10800.0,11500.0,12500.0,12800.0,11500.0,14000.0,29000.0,13500.0,8500.0,9000.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12500.0,15000.0,30000.0,13000.0,14500.0,32000.0,14000.0,8800.0,9200.0,10200.0,10800.0,11800.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,11500.0,14000.0,30000.0,13500.0,8500.0,8800.0,9800.0,10200.0,11000.0,11800.0,12000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9000.0,13000.0,8500.0,7000.0,7200.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,11000.0,26000.0,12500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,12000.0,14000.0,32000.0,14000.0,13000.0,30000.0,13000.0,8000.0,8500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,12000.0,27000.0,12000.0,7500.0,8000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,12000.0,28000.0,12000.0,7800.0,8200.0,9200.0,9800.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,10500.0,12500.0,29000.0,12500.0,8200.0,8800.0,10000.0,10800.0,11800.0,13500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[13000.0,10000.0,10500.0,16000.0,75000.0,11000.0,8000.0,9000.0,22000.0,9500.0,9000.0,11000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10500.0,16000.0,78000.0,11000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,12000.0,16000.0,55000.0,12000.0,16000.0,75000.0,11000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,11000.0,13000.0,10000.0,10000.0,16000.0,80000.0,11000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,11000.0,13000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,9500.0,12000.0,8500.0,8500.0,10000.0,38000.0,36000.0,8000.0,9500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,10500.0,13000.0,45000.0,11000.0,13000.0,65000.0,10000.0,7500.0,9500.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,10000.0,12000.0,8500.0,8500.0,12000.0,62000.0,9500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,10000.0,12000.0,9000.0,8500.0,12000.0,62000.0,9500.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,10000.0,12000.0,22000.0,9500.0,12000.0,60000.0,10000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,11500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4000.0,3300.0,3400.0,4500.0,14000.0,5500.0,2600.0,2400.0,3000.0,3400.0,3500.0,4200.0,4000.0,3200.0,3300.0,4800.0,15500.0,5800.0,2600.0,2500.0,3000.0,3500.0,3400.0,4400.0,4300.0,12000.0,3600.0,5000.0,16500.0,6000.0,2700.0,2600.0,3100.0,3600.0,3500.0,4500.0,4500.0,3400.0,3500.0,5200.0,17000.0,6200.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,3500.0,3400.0,4400.0,4300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,4800.0,3500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,4000.0,4500.0,3400.0,3400.0,4500.0,12000.0,9000.0,3000.0,2700.0,3000.0,3400.0,3500.0,4400.0,4800.0,14000.0,4200.0,5000.0,15000.0,6000.0,2800.0,2600.0,3100.0,3600.0,3500.0,4500.0,4600.0,3500.0,3600.0,5200.0,18000.0,6500.0,2900.0,2800.0,3200.0,3700.0,3600.0,4700.0,4800.0,3700.0,3800.0,5600.0,26000.0,9000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3800.0,3700.0,4900.0,5000.0,3800.0,3900.0,5800.0,20000.0,7000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3800.0,3700.0,5000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3800.0,4200.0,4800.0,6500.0,13200.0,7600.0,3900.0,3400.0,6800.0,4100.0,4300.0,5200.0,5100.0,4600.0,5200.0,7100.0,14200.0,7900.0,3800.0,3600.0,4200.0,4400.0,4800.0,5600.0,6200.0,22500.0,7500.0,7300.0,15300.0,8200.0,4000.0,3700.0,3900.0,4300.0,4600.0,5400.0,5600.0,4800.0,5400.0,7200.0,15600.0,8400.0,4100.0,3800.0,4000.0,4400.0,4700.0,5600.0,5800.0,5000.0,6200.0,5900.0,5200.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,4100.0,4500.0,4800.0,5500.0,6000.0,5200.0,5600.0,6800.0,9800.0,12100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,4900.0,5800.0,7500.0,24800.0,8200.0,7600.0,16400.0,8800.0,4300.0,4000.0,4300.0,4700.0,5000.0,6000.0,6200.0,5400.0,5800.0,7400.0,14800.0,8600.0,4200.0,3900.0,4400.0,4700.0,5100.0,6100.0,6400.0,5600.0,6000.0,7800.0,15900.0,9000.0,4500.0,4100.0,4600.0,4900.0,5300.0,6300.0,6600.0,9200.0,6200.0,8000.0,18500.0,9800.0,4800.0,4300.0,5000.0,5400.0,5800.0,6800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[7800.0,5200.0,5300.0,6300.0,22000.0,6800.0,3600.0,3900.0,6400.0,4600.0,4800.0,6200.0,8600.0,5400.0,5500.0,6600.0,24000.0,7200.0,3800.0,3700.0,4400.0,4700.0,5000.0,6600.0,10200.0,30000.0,7800.0,8200.0,28000.0,8000.0,4200.0,4000.0,4400.0,4900.0,5200.0,7000.0,9800.0,6000.0,6200.0,7400.0,26000.0,7800.0,4300.0,6600.0,5600.0,5000.0,5300.0,6800.0,9600.0,6200.0,4400.0,3100.0,3300.0,2900.0,2500.0,2400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,4200.0,8400.0,5000.0,5600.0,7000.0,23000.0,9500.0,4600.0,12000.0,6200.0,5600.0,6000.0,6600.0,5800.0,38000.0,9500.0,8600.0,30000.0,8400.0,4400.0,12500.0,6000.0,5200.0,5400.0,7200.0,10000.0,6200.0,6400.0,7600.0,27000.0,8000.0,4300.0,4600.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,7000.0,9600.0,6400.0,6600.0,8000.0,30000.0,8600.0,4600.0,8200.0,5600.0,5200.0,5600.0,7400.0,10400.0,15000.0,7000.0,8600.0,34000.0,9200.0,4800.0,6200.0,5800.0,5600.0,6200.0,8200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[900.0,850.0,800.0,950.0,3200.0,1400.0,700.0,750.0,1800.0,1100.0,950.0,850.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,1000.0,3800.0,1500.0,750.0,800.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,1100.0,9000.0,2500.0,1200.0,4500.0,1800.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,1100.0,4200.0,1600.0,850.0,900.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,1200.0,900.0,1200.0,800.0,700.0,750.0,850.0,950.0,1000.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1100.0,3500.0,1500.0,800.0,850.0,950.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1200.0,11000.0,3000.0,1400.0,5000.0,2000.0,1000.0,950.0,1100.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1200.0,4500.0,1800.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,1150.0,1050.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1250.0,4800.0,1900.0,1000.0,2500.0,1600.0,1300.0,1250.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1300.0,5200.0,2100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[620.0,580.0,640.0,950.0,3600.0,1900.0,750.0,680.0,720.0,780.0,850.0,980.0,950.0,680.0,700.0,980.0,3400.0,1750.0,720.0,660.0,700.0,760.0,820.0,920.0,900.0,4200.0,1200.0,1050.0,4600.0,2400.0,800.0,720.0,760.0,830.0,900.0,1050.0,950.0,720.0,780.0,1300.0,5200.0,2800.0,850.0,760.0,820.0,890.0,960.0,1100.0,1050.0,950.0,2100.0,1500.0,1250.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,1050.0,1100.0,1250.0,1100.0,850.0,950.0,1300.0,2800.0,5800.0,950.0,850.0,950.0,1050.0,1150.0,1300.0,1100.0,6800.0,1500.0,1500.0,7200.0,4200.0,1050.0,950.0,1050.0,1150.0,1250.0,1400.0,1350.0,980.0,1050.0,1600.0,5800.0,3600.0,1100.0,980.0,1080.0,1200.0,1300.0,1500.0,1450.0,1050.0,1150.0,1700.0,6800.0,4100.0,1200.0,1050.0,1150.0,1300.0,1450.0,1650.0,1600.0,1200.0,1300.0,1900.0,9500.0,5800.0,1400.0,1200.0,1350.0,1500.0,1700.0,1900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2210.0,1640.0,1730.0,2180.0,15400.0,2410.0,1680.0,1590.0,1710.0,1790.0,1660.0,1930.0,2420.0,1880.0,1930.0,2510.0,18200.0,2690.0,1870.0,1790.0,1920.0,2010.0,1850.0,2160.0,2920.0,14500.0,2280.0,3040.0,23500.0,3260.0,2270.0,2180.0,2320.0,2430.0,2260.0,2610.0,3310.0,2570.0,2630.0,3420.0,22400.0,3690.0,2580.0,2470.0,2640.0,2760.0,2550.0,3030.0,3420.0,2750.0,2820.0,2900.0,2720.0,2650.0,2610.0,2560.0,2720.0,2830.0,2690.0,3140.0,3680.0,2870.0,2940.0,3820.0,21800.0,4110.0,2860.0,3250.0,2930.0,3070.0,2840.0,3370.0,3930.0,17200.0,3080.0,4080.0,28100.0,4390.0,3060.0,3900.0,3130.0,3280.0,3050.0,3600.0,3800.0,2970.0,3040.0,3960.0,24300.0,4260.0,2960.0,2830.0,3040.0,3190.0,2950.0,3490.0,3680.0,2880.0,2940.0,3830.0,25100.0,4120.0,2860.0,2740.0,2940.0,3080.0,2850.0,3370.0,3420.0,2670.0,2740.0,3560.0,21900.0,3830.0,2660.0,2540.0,2740.0,2870.0,2650.0,3140.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1600.0,1250.0,1350.0,1900.0,8500.0,2400.0,1250.0,1100.0,1650.0,2050.0,2350.0,1550.0,1750.0,1300.0,1400.0,1950.0,9000.0,2550.0,1300.0,1150.0,1700.0,2000.0,2150.0,1600.0,2500.0,6800.0,2500.0,2700.0,10500.0,2900.0,1450.0,1300.0,1800.0,2150.0,2350.0,1750.0,2300.0,1500.0,1750.0,2200.0,9500.0,2700.0,1400.0,1250.0,1700.0,2100.0,2250.0,1700.0,1900.0,1450.0,4200.0,1550.0,1800.0,1300.0,1450.0,1350.0,1550.0,1750.0,1900.0,1550.0,3600.0,1550.0,1750.0,1550.0,2500.0,1450.0,1350.0,1250.0,1600.0,1900.0,2050.0,1650.0,2800.0,7600.0,2600.0,2800.0,10500.0,2900.0,1550.0,1350.0,1850.0,2200.0,2400.0,1800.0,2400.0,1700.0,3100.0,3200.0,11500.0,3000.0,1600.0,1400.0,1900.0,2250.0,2450.0,1850.0,2550.0,1850.0,2200.0,2850.0,11000.0,3100.0,1700.0,1450.0,1950.0,2300.0,2500.0,1900.0,2700.0,2450.0,2350.0,3000.0,11500.0,3200.0,1750.0,1500.0,2000.0,2350.0,2550.0,1950.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1700.0,2600.0,1700.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1800.0,2800.0,1800.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,3200.0,2000.0,1900.0,3000.0,1900.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,3200.0,2100.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1700.0,1900.0,1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,2600.0,2000.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,3300.0,2200.0,2000.0,3000.0,2200.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,3300.0,2300.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,3400.0,2400.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,3500.0,2500.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[10800.0,10400.0,10000.0,10500.0,61000.0,24500.0,12000.0,10500.0,49000.0,18500.0,11500.0,17500.0,13000.0,10800.0,10500.0,11200.0,57000.0,21000.0,12000.0,10200.0,10800.0,11200.0,11800.0,15500.0,12500.0,42000.0,18000.0,12500.0,64000.0,22000.0,12500.0,11200.0,11800.0,12000.0,12500.0,18000.0,13200.0,11200.0,11000.0,11800.0,61000.0,20000.0,12500.0,11200.0,11800.0,12200.0,12800.0,17000.0,13500.0,11800.0,11000.0,10400.0,20000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12200.0,15500.0,12500.0,11000.0,11400.0,11800.0,50000.0,58000.0,15500.0,12200.0,12800.0,13200.0,13500.0,16200.0,14000.0,46000.0,17000.0,13500.0,72000.0,22500.0,13500.0,12500.0,13200.0,14200.0,14500.0,17500.0,14800.0,12200.0,12800.0,14200.0,68000.0,20500.0,14200.0,13400.0,13800.0,14400.0,14800.0,17500.0,15000.0,12800.0,13400.0,14700.0,73000.0,21000.0,14700.0,14000.0,15000.0,15400.0,15800.0,18000.0,15800.0,13800.0,14400.0,15400.0,74000.0,21500.0,15400.0,15000.0,15800.0,16200.0,16800.0,19000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[280.0,270.0,300.0,330.0,470.0,380.0,300.0,280.0,430.0,330.0,300.0,290.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,360.0,520.0,380.0,320.0,300.0,310.0,330.0,340.0,320.0,400.0,1450.0,560.0,410.0,620.0,400.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,400.0,680.0,440.0,350.0,330.0,340.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,360.0,370.0,350.0,320.0,410.0,300.0,270.0,260.0,280.0,300.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,350.0,650.0,430.0,340.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,420.0,1700.0,600.0,430.0,720.0,440.0,350.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,350.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,420.0,700.0,460.0,360.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,390.0,420.0,400.0,430.0,760.0,490.0,390.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,440.0,720.0,470.0,380.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,360.0,350.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1300.0,1600.0,1400.0,1500.0,1900.0,1000.0,900.0,850.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1400.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,2000.0,1000.0,900.0,900.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,3500.0,1700.0,1600.0,2000.0,1000.0,900.0,900.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,1900.0,1000.0,850.0,850.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1500.0,1600.0,1400.0,1100.0,900.0,800.0,800.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1100.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1400.0,900.0,800.0,800.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1400.0,2800.0,1600.0,1400.0,1800.0,1000.0,850.0,850.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1300.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1700.0,900.0,800.0,800.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1100.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1500.0,800.0,700.0,700.0,900.0,1000.0,1000.0,900.0,950.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1200.0,700.0,600.0,600.0,800.0,850.0,850.0,750.0]}},{"title":"Human Rights Watch","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Human Rights Watch\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15814,15633,16577,16896,17277,13772,13155,14215,15280,17043,21136,17818,19604,18977,20213,18122,18533,15638,15016,12444,17810,16733,17539,14946,14844,14779,17821,18333,17729,13519,12082,13438,14076,17950,17537,15284,16606,15885,17192,17288,17617,13980,16151,13994,15385,19209,20576,18038,19691,17017,16171,19294,16775,17467,14022,13822,14822,18347,16059,15807,15517,16306,18127,24127,29387,16032,16357,15256,13860,14573,15378,14659,15245,16837,23074,21694,15659,12501,11468,12593,12242,14433,16952,13603,17107,12322,14566,13717,15339,13739,14188,15211,13865,42768,28306,21677,21764,17253,17478,17280,19562,14919,15364,15305,14483,17096,17774,16648,15892,14679,19021,15363,15635,12876,12200,13113,13229,16766,15602,12247],"flat_reference_value":16966.44802661641,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[24500.0,22800.0,25100.0,23900.0,23200.0,21900.0,21000.0,20500.0,24100.0,24900.0,27800.0,23500.0,29900.0,27600.0,26800.0,25900.0,24900.0,23600.0,22100.0,23200.0,32000.0,29400.0,27200.0,24900.0,29100.0,26200.0,27800.0,26900.0,26000.0,24500.0,23100.0,23900.0,27900.0,35500.0,31800.0,27300.0,31200.0,27500.0,28300.0,27400.0,26600.0,25200.0,24000.0,25100.0,28800.0,30100.0,28800.0,26300.0,32000.0,28500.0,30700.0,29100.0,30200.0,37500.0,29200.0,27900.0,30600.0,30500.0,29700.0,27900.0,33100.0,29900.0,31600.0,38000.0,43000.0,32300.0,27800.0,31500.0,33300.0,31500.0,30800.0,28700.0,34000.0,43500.0,61000.0,48300.0,38400.0,34300.0,30100.0,30300.0,34600.0,34400.0,33000.0,29900.0,35300.0,31900.0,33800.0,32000.0,31400.0,29700.0,28000.0,28800.0,32200.0,67000.0,56700.0,46300.0,47000.0,40500.0,42100.0,39500.0,40200.0,36200.0,33400.0,33600.0,36500.0,42400.0,42300.0,44700.0,44500.0,37200.0,38300.0,36500.0,36900.0,34500.0,36000.0,35400.0,39600.0,39900.0,37700.0,34900.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[32400.0,33800.0,35100.0,34200.0,31900.0,26400.0,25100.0,25800.0,30700.0,35600.0,36200.0,31500.0,34900.0,33700.0,36400.0,34100.0,31800.0,26100.0,24800.0,27300.0,34600.0,35900.0,35200.0,29800.0,32700.0,31900.0,34500.0,33600.0,30800.0,25200.0,24100.0,24600.0,29400.0,34800.0,34300.0,29100.0,31800.0,31200.0,33900.0,32500.0,30100.0,24900.0,23800.0,24500.0,29200.0,33700.0,34100.0,33400.0,41200.0,31400.0,28600.0,30900.0,29700.0,25800.0,24300.0,24700.0,28900.0,32800.0,31900.0,27800.0,30400.0,29800.0,32600.0,46500.0,58400.0,27900.0,24200.0,26100.0,28400.0,31200.0,30600.0,26500.0,29100.0,30800.0,36900.0,35400.0,29300.0,23800.0,22400.0,25900.0,27100.0,29800.0,29400.0,25100.0,38700.0,26800.0,28400.0,26200.0,24900.0,20800.0,19900.0,20400.0,23600.0,59200.0,64800.0,37400.0,33200.0,28500.0,27900.0,26800.0,27400.0,20500.0,19600.0,19800.0,22400.0,25100.0,24800.0,32900.0,24600.0,23200.0,24500.0,23400.0,21900.0,18400.0,17800.0,18200.0,20900.0,23100.0,22600.0,19700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[38400.0,42100.0,44500.0,41200.0,37800.0,32100.0,29800.0,32500.0,37900.0,42300.0,43800.0,33900.0,39200.0,41800.0,45100.0,40600.0,38200.0,31500.0,30200.0,33100.0,38700.0,43400.0,44600.0,34500.0,38900.0,42500.0,44900.0,41300.0,37600.0,31900.0,29400.0,32800.0,37200.0,42900.0,45100.0,33800.0,37800.0,40900.0,43200.0,39800.0,36700.0,30500.0,28900.0,31400.0,36500.0,41800.0,43100.0,32600.0,37200.0,39600.0,35400.0,34100.0,35800.0,33200.0,29100.0,31700.0,37400.0,41200.0,40800.0,31900.0,36100.0,37800.0,41500.0,82400.0,78100.0,44900.0,33800.0,36200.0,39500.0,42700.0,41900.0,33400.0,36500.0,42300.0,48200.0,46100.0,38900.0,31800.0,29600.0,33400.0,37100.0,40500.0,39800.0,31700.0,57900.0,41600.0,39800.0,37500.0,36200.0,30800.0,28400.0,31200.0,34600.0,72800.0,68400.0,47900.0,45200.0,42100.0,40800.0,38300.0,37100.0,30900.0,28600.0,31500.0,34800.0,39700.0,38900.0,32400.0,36800.0,38200.0,39500.0,36900.0,35400.0,29800.0,27900.0,30500.0,34200.0,38600.0,37900.0,31200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[26000.0,24500.0,25500.0,24500.0,24000.0,21500.0,21000.0,20500.0,23000.0,24000.0,24500.0,21500.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,20000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,19500.0,18500.0,18500.0,20500.0,22000.0,21000.0,18500.0,21500.0,20500.0,21000.0,20500.0,20000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,19000.0,20500.0,20000.0,17500.0,21000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,19000.0,21000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18500.0,16500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,27000.0,24000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,15500.0,17500.0,18500.0,21000.0,18000.0,16500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,18500.0,15500.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,14500.0,30000.0,28000.0,21000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,14500.0,15500.0,15500.0,17000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[46000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,43000.0,46000.0,46000.0,40000.0,44000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,36000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0,38000.0,37000.0,32000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,29000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,28000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,36000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,27000.0,29000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,42000.0,39000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[33412.0,29850.0,28430.0,27310.0,27120.0,28300.0,26240.0,25410.0,28120.0,30140.0,33210.0,31550.0,40120.0,36410.0,34870.0,33310.0,32140.0,31250.0,29430.0,31600.0,30500.0,31300.0,30420.0,31650.0,33800.0,31450.0,30320.0,31100.0,30240.0,35600.0,30210.0,29400.0,30310.0,36240.0,34310.0,32150.0,33200.0,30240.0,30120.0,31150.0,30240.0,34100.0,30250.0,32300.0,31240.0,33300.0,31250.0,32400.0,34100.0,33200.0,45200.0,42100.0,45400.0,86200.0,61400.0,51300.0,45200.0,42300.0,44100.0,40300.0,42100.0,38300.0,38400.0,50300.0,71200.0,45300.0,38100.0,45200.0,38400.0,36300.0,35200.0,36400.0,38100.0,45300.0,72400.0,51300.0,45200.0,42300.0,38400.0,40200.0,43100.0,44200.0,42300.0,44100.0,40200.0,38300.0,38400.0,40300.0,42100.0,40300.0,42100.0,42300.0,45200.0,50400.0,72300.0,50100.0,58300.0,48300.0,48200.0,51400.0,62300.0,55200.0,52100.0,48300.0,50200.0,56400.0,58200.0,54300.0,52300.0,48200.0,50300.0,48200.0,50100.0,60200.0,52300.0,50200.0,52400.0,55300.0,50200.0,52100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[30500.0,29100.0,31200.0,27800.0,26500.0,23800.0,22400.0,23500.0,28000.0,30800.0,36800.0,29500.0,41200.0,31500.0,29200.0,26500.0,25600.0,22800.0,21500.0,23500.0,30500.0,28200.0,27800.0,23800.0,26800.0,25400.0,25800.0,24400.0,22800.0,20200.0,19200.0,20500.0,23800.0,33500.0,27500.0,22000.0,24500.0,23200.0,23800.0,22000.0,21000.0,18800.0,17600.0,18500.0,21800.0,24200.0,23800.0,19500.0,22800.0,21500.0,23500.0,22800.0,24200.0,28500.0,20800.0,18500.0,20500.0,22200.0,24800.0,19800.0,26800.0,24200.0,25200.0,52800.0,58500.0,30200.0,22800.0,22500.0,24800.0,26200.0,25500.0,21800.0,25200.0,28500.0,34800.0,26800.0,23500.0,20200.0,19200.0,22800.0,23800.0,25200.0,24500.0,20500.0,23800.0,22800.0,24500.0,23200.0,21800.0,19500.0,18800.0,19800.0,22500.0,44500.0,48200.0,43600.0,35200.0,32800.0,34500.0,31800.0,30500.0,26200.0,24800.0,25500.0,27200.0,30500.0,29200.0,24800.0,33800.0,28500.0,27200.0,25800.0,24500.0,23200.0,20800.0,21500.0,24800.0,27200.0,26200.0,22500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":null,"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[30000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,44000.0,41000.0,37000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,39000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,44000.0,41000.0,35000.0,34000.0,39000.0,37000.0,35000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,49000.0,54000.0,47000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,44000.0,54000.0,59000.0,51000.0,74000.0,79000.0,59000.0,54000.0,69000.0,57000.0,54000.0,53000.0,51000.0,57000.0,74000.0,79000.0,59000.0,57000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,61000.0,64000.0,59000.0,57000.0,59000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,57000.0,108000.0,118000.0,98000.0,88000.0,83000.0,78000.0,83000.0,88000.0,78000.0,73000.0,76000.0,73000.0,78000.0,83000.0,73000.0,78000.0,73000.0,68000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,63000.0,64000.0,62000.0,63000.0,61000.0,60000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[28500.0,24000.0,23500.0,23000.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,22000.0,24000.0,23500.0,26000.0,23000.0,38000.0,32000.0,25000.0,31000.0,24500.0,23500.0,23000.0,25000.0,36000.0,29000.0,26000.0,24000.0,33000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,24500.0,32000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,30000.0,29000.0,25000.0,34000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,30000.0,36000.0,30000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,44000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,32000.0,38000.0,46000.0,40000.0,42000.0,52000.0,36000.0,34000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35000.0,35000.0,32000.0,40000.0,44000.0,58000.0,52000.0,44000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,82000.0,72000.0,62000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,44000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,46000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,38000.0,35000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,35000.0,42000.0,58000.0,44000.0,62000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,58000.0,66000.0,54000.0,45000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,42000.0,62000.0,48000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,45000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,46000.0,43000.0,50000.0,52000.0,78000.0,92000.0,85000.0,105000.0,78000.0,66000.0,62000.0,78000.0,125000.0,82000.0,98000.0,62000.0,58000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,58000.0,92000.0,70000.0,60000.0,56000.0,52000.0,58000.0,95000.0,165000.0,105000.0,72000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,66000.0,58000.0,64000.0,56000.0,62000.0,55000.0,58000.0,54000.0,56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,58000.0,60000.0,190000.0,285000.0,210000.0,95000.0,80000.0,78000.0,82000.0,95000.0,78000.0,82000.0,72000.0,88000.0,85000.0,175000.0,120000.0,110000.0,95000.0,70000.0,68000.0,72000.0,150000.0,125000.0,105000.0,78000.0,82000.0,75000.0,80000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[68000.0,63000.0,60000.0,59000.0,58000.0,57000.0,53000.0,54000.0,57000.0,59000.0,64000.0,59000.0,84000.0,69000.0,63000.0,62000.0,61000.0,59000.0,55000.0,57000.0,60000.0,62000.0,63000.0,60000.0,61000.0,62000.0,68000.0,70000.0,63000.0,60000.0,56000.0,58000.0,61000.0,67000.0,64000.0,61000.0,62000.0,63000.0,64000.0,67000.0,64000.0,67000.0,62000.0,63000.0,66000.0,70000.0,71000.0,65000.0,64000.0,65000.0,78000.0,88000.0,80000.0,97000.0,82000.0,79000.0,79000.0,81000.0,85000.0,76000.0,98000.0,87000.0,79000.0,76000.0,72000.0,68000.0,64000.0,71000.0,70000.0,70000.0,73000.0,73000.0,82000.0,97000.0,93000.0,86000.0,80000.0,74000.0,70000.0,73000.0,77000.0,335000.0,165000.0,92000.0,82000.0,88000.0,86000.0,82000.0,80000.0,75000.0,70000.0,73000.0,79000.0,132000.0,148000.0,107000.0,90000.0,100000.0,93000.0,89000.0,85000.0,79000.0,74000.0,79000.0,87000.0,103000.0,118000.0,97000.0,108000.0,99000.0,91000.0,89000.0,83000.0,77000.0,72000.0,77000.0,86000.0,103000.0,96000.0,89000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3100.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3400.0,3900.0,3500.0,3300.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,4000.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3100.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,2900.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2500.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[5980.0,6175.0,6695.0,6890.0,6760.0,6630.0,5850.0,6305.0,7508.0,7644.0,8073.0,6211.0,8252.0,8892.0,8436.0,8268.0,8518.0,7956.0,7020.0,7944.0,9438.0,9173.0,9266.0,7098.0,9614.0,10379.0,9785.0,10070.0,9880.0,11628.0,8550.0,9215.0,10973.0,13832.0,11286.0,8213.0,9177.0,10474.0,10815.0,11130.0,10920.0,12317.0,9923.0,12222.0,13283.0,12936.0,14175.0,9555.0,11109.0,10925.0,13030.0,12190.0,13156.0,18768.0,12938.0,11155.0,16445.0,14168.0,15525.0,10465.0,16146.0,12825.0,15991.0,14310.0,14742.0,15836.0,12150.0,17024.0,20790.0,16632.0,15309.0,12285.0,16422.0,25840.0,26265.0,24327.0,19448.0,18207.0,15300.0,18139.0,28050.0,24752.0,22032.0,17017.0,21252.0,22943.0,21630.0,24486.0,24024.0,21420.0,18900.0,20370.0,26565.0,58800.0,49896.0,34398.0,25392.0,24035.0,23690.0,24380.0,31096.0,25806.0,22770.0,22310.0,27830.0,43792.0,47196.0,27209.0,25392.0,25080.0,24720.0,25440.0,26208.0,25704.0,21600.0,23280.0,29040.0,30912.0,28512.0,21840.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[16300.0,14500.0,13300.0,12800.0,13000.0,12900.0,12100.0,12800.0,13300.0,14200.0,18700.0,12500.0,24300.0,20700.0,15500.0,14700.0,14300.0,14600.0,13600.0,14900.0,15100.0,15400.0,14900.0,13100.0,21400.0,16400.0,15300.0,14800.0,15000.0,14600.0,14100.0,15100.0,15400.0,24200.0,17500.0,13900.0,20300.0,16300.0,15400.0,15100.0,15300.0,15800.0,14600.0,15500.0,16100.0,16700.0,16400.0,14300.0,22600.0,18500.0,21400.0,22700.0,31500.0,29000.0,22000.0,24000.0,21000.0,21700.0,25800.0,18400.0,28600.0,21000.0,19700.0,20300.0,22700.0,21300.0,20500.0,30000.0,22500.0,21100.0,21800.0,18800.0,25500.0,41000.0,36000.0,28800.0,26000.0,25300.0,24900.0,26800.0,31500.0,27700.0,26800.0,22300.0,28000.0,24700.0,23300.0,23800.0,24400.0,25100.0,23700.0,24900.0,25800.0,43000.0,39500.0,29200.0,33000.0,28200.0,27900.0,29400.0,33000.0,31000.0,28700.0,29500.0,30500.0,32200.0,30500.0,26000.0,31000.0,27800.0,27000.0,26800.0,27300.0,28100.0,26500.0,27600.0,28500.0,29700.0,28300.0,24400.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[10450.0,11550.0,11880.0,11550.0,11000.0,9900.0,9350.0,9350.0,11220.0,11550.0,11000.0,9680.0,10925.0,13000.0,12420.0,12075.0,11500.0,10350.0,9775.0,9775.0,11730.0,12075.0,11500.0,10120.0,11400.0,12600.0,12960.0,12600.0,12000.0,10800.0,10200.0,10200.0,12240.0,14500.0,12000.0,10560.0,11875.0,13125.0,13500.0,13125.0,12500.0,11250.0,10625.0,10625.0,12750.0,13125.0,12500.0,11000.0,13300.0,14700.0,15120.0,14700.0,14000.0,16500.0,12000.0,11900.0,14280.0,14700.0,14000.0,12320.0,11875.0,13125.0,13500.0,13125.0,12500.0,11250.0,10625.0,11500.0,12750.0,13125.0,12500.0,11000.0,10925.0,12075.0,12420.0,12075.0,11500.0,10350.0,9775.0,9775.0,11730.0,12075.0,11500.0,10120.0,10925.0,12075.0,12420.0,12075.0,11500.0,10350.0,9775.0,9775.0,11730.0,16000.0,14000.0,10120.0,9500.0,10500.0,10800.0,10500.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,10200.0,10500.0,10000.0,8800.0,8075.0,8925.0,9180.0,8925.0,8500.0,7650.0,7225.0,7225.0,8670.0,8925.0,8500.0,7480.0]}},{"title":"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (short story)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (short story)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[22624,17925,16501,15473,15234,12672,15943,15596,15853,15470,13152,14324,18375,17217,17642,17991,16533,17285,22210,17885,14267,16279,12450,20080,15213,12837,13600,11930,12897,10469,10780,10920,10337,13627,13552,12949,15142,11307,11525,10975,11956,9378,9329,11036,10097,10112,9831,10458,11540,9936,12059,19322,36087,21105,11642,11048,17897,13987,17567,14163,15398,12920,12883,13810,13100,10553,11272,11750,9763,9910,9411,8780,11645,9844,9640,10911,11465,12858,9641,9395,8417,8334,10164,9877,10956,15700,12595,10221,14742,11345,10825,9628,9132,9781,11350,13972,15607,10126,10731,9474,10215,8780,9151,9223,13321,12115,13807,12806,13519,9970,12122,12342,10376,9971,10134,10310,9357,10632,14418,12469],"flat_reference_value":16989.343106596894,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[14200.0,15100.0,15800.0,14700.0,13800.0,11900.0,11400.0,12100.0,14500.0,15900.0,15300.0,13500.0,14700.0,15500.0,16300.0,15100.0,14200.0,12300.0,11900.0,12500.0,14900.0,16400.0,15700.0,13900.0,15300.0,15800.0,16500.0,15300.0,14500.0,12600.0,12100.0,12800.0,15200.0,16600.0,16000.0,14300.0,15100.0,15500.0,16200.0,15100.0,14200.0,12400.0,12000.0,12600.0,14900.0,16300.0,15700.0,14000.0,15000.0,15500.0,17900.0,19100.0,17100.0,14500.0,13600.0,14000.0,16000.0,17400.0,16500.0,15000.0,15800.0,16400.0,17100.0,15800.0,15000.0,13100.0,12700.0,13300.0,15500.0,16900.0,16200.0,14500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16800.0,15700.0,17600.0,13700.0,12500.0,13100.0,15300.0,16700.0,15900.0,14300.0,15300.0,15700.0,16400.0,15200.0,14300.0,12500.0,12100.0,12800.0,14900.0,16300.0,15500.0,13900.0,15000.0,15300.0,16000.0,14800.0,13900.0,12100.0,11700.0,12400.0,14500.0,15800.0,15000.0,13500.0,14500.0,14800.0,15400.0,14200.0,13300.0,11600.0,11200.0,11900.0,13900.0,15100.0,14400.0,12900.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[10840.0,9620.0,10250.0,10110.0,9980.0,8640.0,8810.0,8950.0,9730.0,10380.0,10210.0,9940.0,10690.0,9480.0,10120.0,9890.0,9760.0,8420.0,8590.0,8710.0,9540.0,10190.0,9980.0,9720.0,10410.0,9150.0,9680.0,9520.0,9390.0,8150.0,8340.0,8480.0,9210.0,9840.0,9670.0,10560.0,10280.0,8990.0,9510.0,9380.0,9820.0,8210.0,8390.0,8520.0,9140.0,9760.0,9590.0,9410.0,10350.0,9680.0,10420.0,11890.0,11460.0,9640.0,9510.0,9680.0,10120.0,10640.0,10390.0,10180.0,11420.0,9560.0,9940.0,9780.0,9610.0,8320.0,8490.0,8610.0,9180.0,9690.0,9450.0,9230.0,9870.0,8640.0,9120.0,8950.0,10140.0,7780.0,7920.0,8040.0,8560.0,9080.0,8890.0,8670.0,9240.0,8020.0,8460.0,8290.0,8650.0,7690.0,7740.0,7480.0,7960.0,8410.0,8230.0,8050.0,8620.0,7580.0,7940.0,7810.0,7690.0,6840.0,7020.0,7150.0,7820.0,9640.0,9280.0,8910.0,9150.0,8120.0,8690.0,10780.0,9420.0,7950.0,7880.0,7790.0,8140.0,8560.0,8320.0,8190.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[15200.0,16100.0,17800.0,16900.0,14500.0,10200.0,9100.0,10400.0,13800.0,17200.0,18100.0,12400.0,14600.0,15400.0,17100.0,16200.0,13900.0,9800.0,8700.0,9900.0,13200.0,16500.0,17300.0,11800.0,13900.0,14800.0,16300.0,15400.0,13200.0,9300.0,8300.0,9500.0,12600.0,15700.0,16400.0,11200.0,13100.0,13900.0,15400.0,14600.0,13500.0,9100.0,8000.0,9100.0,12100.0,15000.0,15600.0,10600.0,12800.0,13400.0,14100.0,16500.0,14800.0,9600.0,8200.0,9000.0,11800.0,14400.0,14900.0,10200.0,12100.0,12800.0,14200.0,13500.0,11800.0,8200.0,7400.0,8300.0,11000.0,13600.0,14100.0,9500.0,11400.0,12100.0,13400.0,12700.0,11000.0,7700.0,6900.0,7800.0,10400.0,12900.0,13300.0,8900.0,10800.0,11500.0,12700.0,12100.0,10500.0,7300.0,6500.0,7400.0,9800.0,12200.0,12600.0,8500.0,10200.0,10900.0,12000.0,11400.0,9900.0,6900.0,6200.0,7100.0,9500.0,13100.0,13800.0,9800.0,10500.0,11200.0,12100.0,11300.0,9800.0,6800.0,6100.0,7000.0,9200.0,11600.0,12100.0,8100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[13000.0,13700.0,14300.0,13600.0,13000.0,11000.0,11100.0,11700.0,13000.0,13700.0,13600.0,11000.0,12000.0,12600.0,13200.0,12600.0,12000.0,10200.0,10200.0,10800.0,12000.0,12600.0,12600.0,10200.0,11000.0,11600.0,12100.0,11500.0,11000.0,9400.0,9300.0,9900.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,9300.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10500.0,8500.0,9800.0,10300.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,8800.0,8600.0,8900.0,9600.0,10000.0,10000.0,8200.0,9000.0,9400.0,9900.0,9400.0,9000.0,7700.0,7600.0,8100.0,9000.0,9400.0,9400.0,7600.0,8000.0,8400.0,8800.0,8400.0,8000.0,6800.0,6800.0,7200.0,8000.0,8400.0,8400.0,6800.0,7500.0,7900.0,8200.0,7900.0,7500.0,6400.0,6400.0,6700.0,7500.0,7900.0,7900.0,6400.0,7000.0,7300.0,7700.0,7300.0,7000.0,6000.0,5900.0,6300.0,7000.0,7300.0,7300.0,5900.0,6500.0,6800.0,7100.0,6800.0,6500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5800.0,6500.0,6800.0,6800.0,5500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[24000.0,23000.0,23500.0,22500.0,21500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,21000.0,22500.0,22500.0,21500.0,22500.0,21000.0,21500.0,20500.0,19500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,19000.0,20500.0,20500.0,19500.0,20500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,17500.0,18500.0,18500.0,17500.0,19000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,16500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18500.0,17000.0,18500.0,21000.0,20500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,16500.0,17000.0,15500.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15500.0,14000.0,14500.0,13500.0,13000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,13500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,9800.0,9800.0,9800.0,10500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9610.0,9460.0,10140.0,9950.0,9790.0,7110.0,6290.0,6640.0,9760.0,10570.0,9620.0,7690.0,9330.0,8950.0,10090.0,9620.0,9730.0,6860.0,6330.0,6370.0,9440.0,10350.0,9590.0,7520.0,9270.0,8650.0,9890.0,9430.0,9540.0,6840.0,6070.0,6380.0,9270.0,10010.0,9400.0,7530.0,9060.0,8700.0,9780.0,9350.0,9310.0,6780.0,6020.0,6320.0,9300.0,10060.0,9890.0,7440.0,9340.0,9050.0,11060.0,10680.0,10420.0,7600.0,6130.0,6440.0,9360.0,10260.0,9500.0,7460.0,9450.0,8820.0,9950.0,9760.0,9590.0,6980.0,6190.0,6510.0,11470.0,10380.0,9580.0,7530.0,9240.0,8860.0,9850.0,9670.0,10890.0,7180.0,6260.0,6300.0,9490.0,10110.0,9350.0,7600.0,8900.0,8300.0,9510.0,9060.0,9160.0,6460.0,5960.0,5990.0,8910.0,9750.0,9030.0,7090.0,8720.0,8420.0,9170.0,9010.0,8840.0,6450.0,5830.0,5870.0,8850.0,9860.0,9140.0,7280.0,8730.0,8080.0,9100.0,9380.0,8960.0,6310.0,5590.0,5880.0,8540.0,9350.0,8660.0,6790.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4523.0,3761.0,3984.0,3589.0,3412.0,2684.0,2511.0,2718.0,3795.0,4162.0,3870.0,3228.0,4428.0,3692.0,3895.0,3510.0,3361.0,2632.0,2458.0,2661.0,3718.0,4071.0,3798.0,3162.0,4339.0,3615.0,3817.0,3442.0,3294.0,2581.0,2409.0,2605.0,3644.0,3990.0,3721.0,3100.0,4248.0,3541.0,3741.0,3375.0,3228.0,2529.0,2361.0,2553.0,3571.0,3910.0,3646.0,3038.0,4151.0,3487.0,3653.0,3321.0,3155.0,2490.0,2324.0,2490.0,3487.0,3818.0,3586.0,2989.0,6820.0,4250.0,3579.0,3254.0,3091.0,2440.0,2278.0,2440.0,3417.0,3742.0,3514.0,2929.0,3986.0,3349.0,3508.0,3189.0,3029.0,2391.0,2232.0,2391.0,3349.0,3667.0,3444.0,2870.0,3907.0,3282.0,3438.0,3125.0,2969.0,2343.0,2188.0,2343.0,3282.0,3594.0,3375.0,3820.0,3829.0,3216.0,3369.0,3063.0,7520.0,6015.0,4210.0,2815.0,3610.0,4215.0,3306.0,2756.0,3752.0,3152.0,3302.0,8540.0,5025.0,3010.0,2100.0,2250.0,3152.0,3452.0,3241.0,2701.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[13900.0,13300.0,13600.0,14400.0,13100.0,9700.0,8100.0,9300.0,12200.0,13300.0,13900.0,11500.0,13600.0,13000.0,13400.0,14200.0,13000.0,9600.0,7900.0,9100.0,11900.0,13000.0,13600.0,11300.0,15900.0,14200.0,13000.0,13800.0,12700.0,9300.0,7700.0,8800.0,11500.0,12700.0,13200.0,11700.0,12900.0,12400.0,12700.0,13500.0,12400.0,9200.0,7500.0,8600.0,11300.0,12400.0,12900.0,10800.0,13200.0,12600.0,15300.0,17900.0,14200.0,9500.0,7700.0,8800.0,10600.0,12000.0,12500.0,10800.0,12500.0,12000.0,12300.0,13100.0,12000.0,8900.0,7300.0,8400.0,11000.0,12000.0,12500.0,10500.0,12300.0,11800.0,12100.0,12800.0,11800.0,8700.0,7200.0,8200.0,10700.0,11800.0,12300.0,10200.0,12100.0,11600.0,11900.0,12600.0,11600.0,8600.0,7100.0,8100.0,10600.0,11600.0,12100.0,10100.0,11900.0,11400.0,11700.0,12400.0,11400.0,8400.0,6900.0,7900.0,10400.0,11800.0,12300.0,9900.0,11600.0,11100.0,11400.0,12100.0,11100.0,8200.0,6800.0,7700.0,10200.0,11100.0,11600.0,9700.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2180.0,2320.0,2160.0,2230.0,2070.0,1760.0,1650.0,1810.0,2190.0,2350.0,2210.0,2020.0,2080.0,2230.0,2090.0,2130.0,1980.0,1680.0,1580.0,1730.0,2070.0,2240.0,2110.0,1930.0,2220.0,2340.0,2180.0,2230.0,2070.0,1760.0,1650.0,1810.0,2190.0,2360.0,2210.0,3600.0,2950.0,2160.0,2030.0,2070.0,1930.0,1640.0,1540.0,1680.0,2030.0,2170.0,2060.0,1870.0,2400.0,2550.0,3050.0,3800.0,3350.0,1980.0,1850.0,1970.0,2400.0,2550.0,2420.0,2200.0,1960.0,2050.0,1920.0,1960.0,1830.0,1550.0,1460.0,1590.0,1930.0,2060.0,1950.0,1780.0,1860.0,1950.0,1820.0,1850.0,1730.0,1470.0,1380.0,1500.0,1820.0,1950.0,1850.0,1680.0,2020.0,2110.0,1980.0,2030.0,1910.0,1600.0,1500.0,1630.0,2010.0,3100.0,2300.0,3000.0,2500.0,1840.0,1710.0,1750.0,1630.0,1380.0,1300.0,1420.0,1710.0,1840.0,1740.0,1590.0,1600.0,1660.0,1560.0,1590.0,1480.0,1260.0,1180.0,1290.0,1560.0,1670.0,1590.0,1440.0],"meta/muse-ember":[11000.0,11300.0,11800.0,11500.0,10500.0,8900.0,8200.0,9200.0,12100.0,12800.0,12400.0,9500.0,10300.0,10600.0,11000.0,10800.0,9800.0,8300.0,7600.0,8600.0,11300.0,12000.0,11600.0,8800.0,9500.0,9700.0,10100.0,9900.0,9000.0,7700.0,7000.0,7900.0,10400.0,11000.0,10600.0,8100.0,8700.0,9000.0,9300.0,9100.0,8300.0,7100.0,6500.0,7300.0,9600.0,10100.0,9800.0,7500.0,9000.0,9300.0,11600.0,11800.0,10300.0,8000.0,6700.0,7600.0,9900.0,10500.0,10100.0,7700.0,11300.0,8600.0,9000.0,8800.0,8000.0,6800.0,6200.0,7000.0,9200.0,9800.0,9400.0,7200.0,9300.0,8000.0,8300.0,8100.0,7400.0,6300.0,6600.0,6500.0,8500.0,9000.0,8700.0,6700.0,7100.0,7300.0,7600.0,9000.0,6800.0,5800.0,5300.0,6000.0,7800.0,9300.0,8000.0,6100.0,6600.0,6800.0,7100.0,6900.0,6300.0,5400.0,4900.0,5500.0,7200.0,9600.0,7400.0,5700.0,6200.0,6400.0,7600.0,9100.0,6800.0,5900.0,5300.0,5200.0,6800.0,7200.0,7000.0,5300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[13100.0,12300.0,11600.0,11400.0,11100.0,10300.0,10000.0,10500.0,12500.0,13000.0,11900.0,9300.0,12000.0,12000.0,11600.0,10500.0,10600.0,9700.0,9200.0,9800.0,11600.0,12200.0,11300.0,8800.0,36000.0,16500.0,12500.0,9900.0,10000.0,9200.0,8700.0,9300.0,11100.0,11500.0,10700.0,10900.0,10900.0,10100.0,9900.0,9300.0,9400.0,8700.0,8200.0,8700.0,10300.0,10900.0,9900.0,7800.0,11700.0,11200.0,12300.0,13400.0,12800.0,10600.0,9100.0,9400.0,11400.0,11700.0,11000.0,8500.0,10700.0,10000.0,9800.0,9400.0,9100.0,8700.0,8300.0,8500.0,10400.0,10700.0,9800.0,7900.0,9700.0,9200.0,8700.0,10800.0,25000.0,9600.0,7900.0,7800.0,9200.0,9700.0,9000.0,7000.0,8800.0,8200.0,8100.0,7700.0,7500.0,7100.0,6600.0,7100.0,8500.0,8600.0,8200.0,6300.0,7900.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6900.0,6200.0,6100.0,6400.0,7500.0,7900.0,7200.0,5800.0,7200.0,6600.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5600.0,6900.0,7000.0,6700.0,5100.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4420.0,4080.0,4330.0,4060.0,4720.0,3530.0,3190.0,3020.0,3720.0,4260.0,4410.0,4180.0,4180.0,3960.0,4120.0,3830.0,4430.0,3390.0,3080.0,2930.0,3580.0,4110.0,4260.0,3990.0,8360.0,4070.0,4250.0,3990.0,4680.0,3480.0,3140.0,2960.0,3650.0,4190.0,4370.0,4320.0,4090.0,3790.0,3970.0,3720.0,4410.0,3260.0,2980.0,2850.0,3490.0,4010.0,4140.0,3890.0,4360.0,4100.0,4270.0,4090.0,4630.0,3530.0,3220.0,3020.0,3690.0,4240.0,4430.0,4180.0,8050.0,5760.0,5180.0,4370.0,5050.0,3760.0,3430.0,3230.0,3970.0,4570.0,4740.0,4470.0,5420.0,4660.0,5030.0,4630.0,9650.0,4060.0,3710.0,3480.0,4270.0,4920.0,5090.0,4790.0,7430.0,5860.0,5920.0,5090.0,5760.0,4180.0,3820.0,3590.0,4390.0,5050.0,5230.0,5030.0,4890.0,4570.0,4760.0,4480.0,5210.0,3970.0,3640.0,3420.0,4150.0,4780.0,4950.0,4670.0,4760.0,4450.0,4630.0,4360.0,5080.0,3860.0,3550.0,3330.0,4050.0,4670.0,4830.0,4570.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1900.0,2100.0,2100.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,2000.0,2000.0,1700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[10400.0,7600.0,8400.0,8400.0,7600.0,6800.0,6400.0,7600.0,10000.0,9600.0,8000.0,11800.0,11100.0,8100.0,8900.0,8900.0,8100.0,7200.0,6800.0,8100.0,10600.0,10200.0,8500.0,12500.0,11700.0,8600.0,9500.0,9500.0,8600.0,7700.0,7200.0,8600.0,12100.0,10800.0,9000.0,22000.0,12000.0,8700.0,9700.0,9700.0,8700.0,7800.0,7400.0,8700.0,11500.0,11000.0,9200.0,12400.0,14500.0,9500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,8500.0,8000.0,9500.0,12500.0,12000.0,10000.0,13500.0,13700.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,8900.0,8400.0,10000.0,13100.0,12600.0,10500.0,34500.0,12700.0,9300.0,10300.0,10300.0,9300.0,8300.0,7800.0,9300.0,12300.0,11800.0,9800.0,13200.0,12400.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8100.0,7600.0,9000.0,11900.0,11400.0,9500.0,25000.0,12100.0,8800.0,9800.0,9800.0,8800.0,7900.0,7400.0,8800.0,11600.0,11200.0,9300.0,12600.0,11800.0,8600.0,9600.0,9600.0,8600.0,7700.0,7300.0,8600.0,11400.0,10900.0,9100.0,12300.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[198.0,185.0,194.0,176.0,169.0,160.0,166.0,174.0,182.0,188.0,201.0,224.0,210.0,187.0,179.0,171.0,165.0,158.0,164.0,171.0,178.0,185.0,194.0,218.0,205.0,181.0,174.0,168.0,159.0,154.0,161.0,169.0,176.0,183.0,198.0,236.0,216.0,188.0,180.0,169.0,163.0,157.0,164.0,170.0,181.0,190.0,206.0,252.0,232.0,214.0,206.0,224.0,218.0,201.0,196.0,192.0,187.0,194.0,206.0,228.0,204.0,186.0,179.0,172.0,166.0,158.0,164.0,170.0,176.0,184.0,197.0,221.0,219.0,201.0,196.0,211.0,205.0,190.0,184.0,181.0,178.0,186.0,198.0,230.0,211.0,190.0,182.0,175.0,168.0,162.0,166.0,173.0,179.0,188.0,203.0,247.0,218.0,194.0,186.0,178.0,171.0,165.0,169.0,176.0,181.0,189.0,202.0,230.0,205.0,184.0,177.0,169.0,164.0,157.0,163.0,169.0,176.0,183.0,195.0,222.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1365.0,1430.0,1430.0,1365.0,1300.0,1170.0,1105.0,1235.0,1430.0,1430.0,1365.0,1170.0,1281.0,1342.0,1342.0,1281.0,1220.0,1098.0,1037.0,1159.0,1342.0,1342.0,1281.0,1098.0,1208.0,1265.0,1265.0,1208.0,1150.0,1035.0,978.0,1093.0,1265.0,1265.0,1208.0,1035.0,1134.0,1188.0,1188.0,1134.0,1080.0,972.0,918.0,1026.0,1188.0,1188.0,1134.0,972.0,1103.0,1155.0,1155.0,1103.0,1050.0,945.0,893.0,998.0,1155.0,1155.0,1103.0,945.0,966.0,1012.0,1012.0,966.0,920.0,828.0,782.0,874.0,1012.0,1012.0,966.0,828.0,861.0,902.0,902.0,861.0,820.0,738.0,697.0,779.0,902.0,902.0,861.0,738.0,777.0,814.0,814.0,777.0,740.0,666.0,629.0,703.0,814.0,814.0,777.0,666.0,693.0,726.0,726.0,693.0,660.0,594.0,561.0,627.0,726.0,726.0,693.0,594.0,609.0,638.0,638.0,609.0,580.0,522.0,493.0,551.0,638.0,638.0,609.0,522.0]}},{"title":"Marder (IFV)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Marder (IFV)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[9292,8951,8707,7873,10128,8711,8776,8832,8726,8999,9810,10722,10347,10534,11158,9090,9073,7903,7831,7959,7954,8843,9062,8448,9388,8335,9490,8321,8022,8467,7820,7981,7904,8460,7912,9222,8976,7440,8665,7796,8310,7368,7960,7545,8145,9445,7728,7291,8209,8031,8582,9957,9367,7870,8426,8744,8659,9561,8971,8929,8842,9148,11415,9912,18291,14896,11443,14435,12225,9520,10084,9201,10771,12658,19731,93475,8610,6795,5185,4754,7218,6803,5158,9559,23724,6718,7202,5488,5178,5671,5515,5152,5941,5013,4728,5061,6246,4803,5326,4792,4868,4843,4391,5010,4064,4490,3852,4201,4333,3684,4219,3567,3703,3030,3141,3500,2957,3293,3604,3535],"flat_reference_value":17033.547881797916,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6100.0,5900.0,6500.0,6600.0,6100.0,6400.0,6500.0,6700.0,7100.0,6500.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,6700.0,7300.0,7400.0,6900.0,7200.0,7100.0,7400.0,8000.0,7300.0,7900.0,7700.0,8000.0,7800.0,8400.0,8500.0,7900.0,8300.0,8200.0,8500.0,9100.0,8300.0,9000.0,8700.0,9000.0,8700.0,9500.0,9600.0,9000.0,9400.0,9300.0,9700.0,10300.0,9800.0,11000.0,12000.0,11900.0,11000.0,11500.0,11800.0,10800.0,11200.0,11000.0,11400.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11700.0,12000.0,11800.0,12700.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12800.0,13500.0,16000.0,42000.0,75000.0,85000.0,65000.0,47000.0,38000.0,36000.0,41000.0,33000.0,30000.0,33000.0,160000.0,70000.0,75000.0,47000.0,42000.0,85000.0,65000.0,50000.0,45000.0,37000.0,33000.0,32000.0,35000.0,32000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[9800.0,9100.0,9600.0,9300.0,9500.0,9000.0,9400.0,9700.0,9200.0,9600.0,9400.0,9500.0,10100.0,9000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9700.0,9200.0,9500.0,9600.0,9100.0,9400.0,9300.0,9200.0,9700.0,8700.0,9500.0,9200.0,9100.0,8800.0,9300.0,9400.0,8900.0,9300.0,9100.0,9200.0,9800.0,8900.0,9600.0,9300.0,9500.0,9100.0,9600.0,9800.0,9300.0,9700.0,9500.0,9600.0,10600.0,9700.0,11200.0,11800.0,11400.0,10500.0,10700.0,10800.0,10300.0,10600.0,10400.0,10700.0,11100.0,10000.0,10800.0,10600.0,12200.0,14800.0,12400.0,11500.0,13600.0,11800.0,11000.0,10900.0,11500.0,19500.0,36000.0,86000.0,52000.0,38000.0,27000.0,23000.0,34000.0,26000.0,21000.0,23500.0,185000.0,48000.0,44000.0,29000.0,26500.0,31000.0,25000.0,35000.0,32500.0,23000.0,19500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17200.0,17800.0,17500.0,20500.0,16800.0,16200.0,27500.0,19000.0,16500.0,15200.0,14500.0,14800.0,16500.0,18200.0,14600.0,13800.0,13100.0,12900.0,12700.0,12400.0,12600.0,12100.0,11900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[13200.0,12800.0,13900.0,12400.0,13100.0,12100.0,13500.0,12900.0,12600.0,13800.0,14100.0,13400.0,14300.0,13100.0,14500.0,13600.0,14200.0,12700.0,13800.0,14000.0,13500.0,14600.0,15100.0,13900.0,15300.0,13800.0,14700.0,13900.0,14100.0,12800.0,13200.0,13700.0,14400.0,15200.0,14800.0,13600.0,15100.0,13900.0,14800.0,13700.0,14000.0,12900.0,13500.0,14200.0,13800.0,14600.0,14900.0,13700.0,14800.0,14200.0,16100.0,17800.0,16900.0,14300.0,13900.0,14500.0,14100.0,15300.0,15800.0,14700.0,16200.0,14500.0,15700.0,15100.0,14600.0,13400.0,13800.0,14100.0,13900.0,14800.0,15400.0,15000.0,16200.0,28400.0,54200.0,62800.0,53100.0,47600.0,36200.0,32800.0,41500.0,34900.0,31400.0,35200.0,155000.0,72400.0,67800.0,51200.0,47800.0,64300.0,57100.0,53600.0,44800.0,38200.0,34500.0,32100.0,34800.0,33200.0,35600.0,31900.0,33800.0,30700.0,28900.0,71800.0,44600.0,37200.0,32400.0,29800.0,31200.0,29100.0,30400.0,28200.0,27900.0,26100.0,25400.0,26800.0,26200.0,27500.0,27100.0,25800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[11500.0,10800.0,11200.0,10900.0,10600.0,10200.0,10400.0,10300.0,10100.0,10500.0,10600.0,10300.0,10900.0,10200.0,10600.0,10300.0,10000.0,9600.0,9800.0,9700.0,9600.0,9900.0,10000.0,9700.0,10200.0,9600.0,10000.0,9700.0,9400.0,9000.0,9200.0,9100.0,9000.0,9300.0,9400.0,9100.0,9600.0,9000.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,8500.0,8700.0,8600.0,8500.0,8800.0,8900.0,8700.0,9300.0,8800.0,9800.0,10200.0,9600.0,8900.0,8800.0,8700.0,8500.0,8700.0,8800.0,8600.0,8900.0,8300.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,7900.0,8000.0,8100.0,7900.0,8200.0,8300.0,8400.0,9500.0,16000.0,38000.0,52000.0,45000.0,30000.0,24000.0,21000.0,30000.0,26000.0,22000.0,24000.0,130000.0,55000.0,40000.0,32000.0,27000.0,30000.0,24000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,19000.0,15000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10300.0,10200.0,9900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[12500.0,11800.0,12000.0,11500.0,11800.0,11200.0,11800.0,12000.0,11300.0,11600.0,11800.0,12000.0,12800.0,11800.0,12200.0,11500.0,11600.0,11000.0,11500.0,11600.0,10800.0,11200.0,11300.0,11500.0,12200.0,11200.0,11600.0,11000.0,11200.0,10600.0,11000.0,11200.0,10500.0,10900.0,11000.0,11200.0,11800.0,10800.0,11200.0,10800.0,11000.0,10400.0,10800.0,11000.0,10400.0,10700.0,10800.0,11000.0,11500.0,10800.0,11500.0,12800.0,12800.0,11500.0,11500.0,11400.0,10800.0,11000.0,11000.0,11200.0,11800.0,10800.0,11200.0,10800.0,10800.0,10200.0,10500.0,10800.0,10300.0,10500.0,10600.0,11000.0,12500.0,17000.0,34000.0,46000.0,34000.0,27000.0,23000.0,21000.0,27000.0,25000.0,21000.0,24000.0,125000.0,48000.0,42000.0,36000.0,33000.0,45000.0,35000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,24000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[7900.0,8300.0,8800.0,8500.0,8700.0,8400.0,8000.0,8100.0,9000.0,9200.0,8600.0,7600.0,7400.0,7800.0,8500.0,8200.0,8300.0,8000.0,7600.0,7700.0,8400.0,8600.0,8100.0,7100.0,7000.0,7400.0,8100.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,7200.0,7400.0,8000.0,8200.0,7700.0,6800.0,6600.0,7000.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7100.0,6800.0,6900.0,7500.0,8600.0,7300.0,6400.0,6200.0,6500.0,6900.0,6700.0,6600.0,6300.0,6000.0,6100.0,6700.0,6800.0,6400.0,5800.0,6000.0,6300.0,6700.0,6600.0,6800.0,6700.0,6500.0,6600.0,7100.0,7300.0,7800.0,8600.0,11000.0,30000.0,17000.0,12000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9800.0,10200.0,10500.0,11500.0,17000.0,105000.0,48000.0,29000.0,21000.0,16000.0,24000.0,17000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9800.0,10200.0,11500.0,10800.0,10500.0,10000.0,11500.0,10800.0,16500.0,12500.0,11200.0,10600.0,11000.0,11500.0,15000.0,13500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10800.0,10500.0,10800.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[7823.0,7345.0,7589.0,7120.0,6784.0,6231.0,5812.0,5945.0,6510.0,7098.0,7234.0,6789.0,7954.0,7412.0,7698.0,7185.0,6850.0,6340.0,5925.0,6031.0,6642.0,7205.0,7350.0,6912.0,8050.0,7523.0,7710.0,7250.0,6920.0,6410.0,6015.0,6120.0,6725.0,7310.0,7445.0,7020.0,8120.0,7600.0,7785.0,7320.0,6985.0,6480.0,6080.0,6205.0,6810.0,7395.0,7520.0,7105.0,8230.0,7715.0,8150.0,8450.0,7620.0,6590.0,6180.0,6290.0,6900.0,7480.0,7610.0,7250.0,8350.0,7820.0,7950.0,7450.0,7100.0,6600.0,6250.0,6350.0,6980.0,7560.0,7700.0,7320.0,9500.0,28000.0,22000.0,24000.0,18000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,14500.0,13500.0,13000.0,14000.0,65000.0,32000.0,35000.0,22000.0,18000.0,20000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,11500.0,12500.0,15000.0,11500.0,10500.0,9500.0,10000.0,8500.0,8300.0,9200.0,9800.0,9600.0,9000.0,10000.0,13000.0,10500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8000.0,7900.0,8800.0,9200.0,9000.0,8500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,3800.0,4000.0,3500.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,3800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,4100.0,4800.0,4900.0,5600.0,6200.0,5700.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,5500.0,5600.0,5000.0,5600.0,5500.0,5700.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,5100.0,5200.0,5600.0,5900.0,6300.0,6800.0,7200.0,22000.0,30000.0,18000.0,14000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,17000.0,58000.0,34000.0,24000.0,18000.0,15000.0,21000.0,17000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[600.0,550.0,600.0,550.0,500.0,450.0,400.0,450.0,500.0,550.0,600.0,550.0,550.0,500.0,550.0,500.0,480.0,450.0,420.0,450.0,500.0,550.0,600.0,550.0,600.0,550.0,600.0,550.0,520.0,480.0,450.0,480.0,520.0,580.0,620.0,600.0,650.0,600.0,650.0,600.0,580.0,520.0,500.0,520.0,560.0,620.0,680.0,650.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,650.0,620.0,580.0,550.0,580.0,620.0,680.0,720.0,700.0,750.0,700.0,750.0,700.0,680.0,620.0,600.0,620.0,680.0,740.0,800.0,760.0,900.0,2500.0,4500.0,5000.0,3500.0,2500.0,2000.0,1800.0,2200.0,2500.0,2000.0,2200.0,35000.0,18000.0,12000.0,8000.0,7000.0,9000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4500.0,5000.0,5500.0,6000.0,5000.0,4500.0,5000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4000.0,4000.0,4500.0,4500.0,5000.0,4500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[6800.0,6300.0,7100.0,6900.0,7400.0,7200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7300.0,7000.0,6600.0,6100.0,7100.0,6600.0,7300.0,7100.0,7500.0,7800.0,8100.0,7900.0,7600.0,7200.0,6900.0,6400.0,7400.0,7000.0,7600.0,7400.0,7800.0,8100.0,8400.0,8200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7100.0,6600.0,7600.0,7300.0,8000.0,7700.0,8100.0,8400.0,8700.0,8500.0,8200.0,7800.0,7300.0,6900.0,7900.0,7600.0,8800.0,9200.0,9500.0,9100.0,9400.0,9200.0,8800.0,8500.0,8300.0,7600.0,8400.0,8100.0,8900.0,8700.0,9100.0,9400.0,9700.0,9500.0,9100.0,8700.0,9000.0,8600.0,10200.0,28500.0,42500.0,27000.0,22500.0,21500.0,16500.0,14000.0,13800.0,13400.0,14500.0,19800.0,68000.0,48000.0,36000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13800.0,14200.0,12500.0,13500.0,12800.0,14000.0,13500.0,14200.0,16500.0,19800.0,15500.0,14800.0,15200.0,16800.0,13800.0,15200.0,17500.0,19500.0,16200.0,16800.0,15800.0,16200.0,15500.0,15000.0,14800.0,15200.0,13500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3100.0,2700.0,3000.0,2900.0,2650.0,2450.0,2250.0,2350.0,3000.0,2950.0,2850.0,2300.0,3250.0,2850.0,3200.0,3050.0,2800.0,2550.0,2400.0,2500.0,3150.0,3100.0,3000.0,2450.0,3400.0,3000.0,3350.0,3200.0,2950.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,3300.0,3250.0,3150.0,2550.0,3650.0,3200.0,3550.0,3400.0,3150.0,2850.0,2650.0,2750.0,3550.0,3450.0,3350.0,2750.0,4000.0,3500.0,4700.0,4900.0,4300.0,3150.0,2900.0,3000.0,3850.0,3800.0,3650.0,3000.0,4400.0,3900.0,4300.0,4100.0,3800.0,3500.0,3250.0,3350.0,4300.0,4200.0,4050.0,3300.0,4600.0,12000.0,18000.0,12000.0,8500.0,7200.0,6400.0,6200.0,6900.0,6500.0,6100.0,5400.0,60000.0,26000.0,18000.0,12000.0,9500.0,17000.0,13000.0,11000.0,9800.0,9000.0,8400.0,7400.0,8200.0,13000.0,8000.0,7600.0,7000.0,6400.0,6000.0,10000.0,8000.0,7800.0,7500.0,6100.0,7500.0,11000.0,7350.0,7000.0,6900.0,5900.0,5500.0,5700.0,7300.0,7150.0,6850.0,5650.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[18214.0,16487.0,18932.0,17862.0,18241.0,16955.0,16374.0,15983.0,17876.0,19128.0,19044.0,16117.0,17562.0,16135.0,18734.0,17625.0,18917.0,17221.0,16482.0,16038.0,17738.0,18904.0,19153.0,16526.0,18063.0,16541.0,18876.0,18047.0,18713.0,17304.0,16783.0,16201.0,17915.0,19137.0,19004.0,16751.0,18512.0,16734.0,19207.0,18349.0,19106.0,17624.0,17037.0,16592.0,18148.0,19314.0,19241.0,16971.0,20184.0,18273.0,21145.0,20335.0,20577.0,18973.0,18057.0,17618.0,19304.0,20852.0,20611.0,18089.0,21982.0,19805.0,22876.0,22744.0,23126.0,21372.0,27384.0,24768.0,22451.0,23182.0,23871.0,20844.0,48238.0,65914.0,126487.0,82621.0,57746.0,44132.0,38485.0,34912.0,33166.0,34044.0,32271.0,27983.0,31642.0,23874.0,26451.0,25218.0,29766.0,24613.0,23184.0,22957.0,24376.0,25772.0,25893.0,22187.0,22972.0,23116.0,25138.0,23756.0,22184.0,20721.0,19837.0,19436.0,20918.0,22341.0,22016.0,20184.0,23887.0,21342.0,24141.0,27102.0,23678.0,41941.0,32485.0,24157.0,22287.0,24744.0,25128.0,21674.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3600.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,3300.0,16000.0,8500.0,6000.0,5200.0,4800.0,5200.0,4400.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1315.0,1238.0,1210.0,1125.0,1065.0,1032.0,1054.0,1088.0,1258.0,1169.0,1146.0,1178.0,1353.0,1268.0,1234.0,1150.0,1093.0,1056.0,1080.0,1116.0,1291.0,1198.0,1174.0,1208.0,1398.0,1311.0,1275.0,1190.0,1128.0,1091.0,1115.0,1152.0,1335.0,1237.0,1213.0,1249.0,1463.0,1374.0,1335.0,1246.0,1182.0,1144.0,1169.0,1207.0,1398.0,1296.0,1270.0,1308.0,1541.0,1446.0,1404.0,1311.0,1244.0,1202.0,1230.0,1271.0,1471.0,1363.0,1336.0,1376.0,1621.0,1521.0,1478.0,1379.0,1308.0,1265.0,1293.0,1336.0,1548.0,1435.0,1407.0,1450.0,1705.0,3550.0,14380.0,7210.0,4320.0,3220.0,2790.0,2610.0,3120.0,3350.0,2910.0,2460.0,2520.0,4210.0,9520.0,5630.0,4120.0,3050.0,2640.0,2710.0,3210.0,3020.0,2730.0,2320.0,2260.0,2120.0,1960.0,1870.0,1760.0,1700.0,1840.0,2010.0,2160.0,2060.0,1960.0,1910.0,2380.0,2240.0,2070.0,1960.0,1870.0,1820.0,1920.0,2080.0,2210.0,2120.0,2030.0,2070.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1250.0,1180.0,1320.0,1210.0,1280.0,1300.0,1400.0,1250.0,1240.0,1320.0,1450.0,1380.0,1320.0,1260.0,1390.0,1310.0,1360.0,1420.0,1500.0,1360.0,1300.0,1410.0,1530.0,1470.0,1450.0,1380.0,1520.0,1460.0,1510.0,1590.0,1680.0,1500.0,1470.0,1600.0,1720.0,1650.0,1580.0,1490.0,1650.0,1550.0,1630.0,1720.0,1810.0,1650.0,1580.0,1700.0,1850.0,1760.0,1690.0,1580.0,1740.0,1680.0,1750.0,1850.0,1920.0,1750.0,1680.0,1820.0,1940.0,1870.0,1770.0,1690.0,1850.0,1760.0,1830.0,1940.0,2050.0,1870.0,1800.0,1960.0,2150.0,2080.0,1800.0,3300.0,5800.0,4100.0,3500.0,3900.0,3400.0,3100.0,3500.0,3700.0,4200.0,5600.0,26000.0,15500.0,9500.0,6800.0,7600.0,11500.0,8500.0,6200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,4200.0,5300.0,3900.0,4500.0,4800.0,4000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4200.0,4600.0,3900.0,3400.0,3200.0,3600.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,3800.0,3400.0,3000.0,3200.0,2900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1650.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1650.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1650.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,5500.0,6500.0,3800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,14000.0,9500.0,6500.0,5000.0,4000.0,3500.0,3200.0,2800.0,2900.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2100.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0]}},{"title":"BMW 3 Series (E46)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"BMW 3 Series (E46)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[74923,71789,74515,70171,70790,65373,72824,72303,70758,75761,68731,68290,77680,72791,78250,71790,73812,71273,73760,79117,78181,80920,76494,71193,80247,75328,79881,74217,75504,69333,74923,76029,72602,78285,68829,70413,78093,69449,75279,72428,74523,67071,70178,72002,69754,69778,64923,63742,71195,68843,70387,72061,80714,80176,83077,82035,74375,75489,70902,66485,76622,68585,79529,75072,73479,72505,72405,71979,67935,68615,62627,62894,70471,61874,61896,62557,62143,56888,68031,71094,66723,71122,67679,59414,72237,68318,76613,70596,77120,72551,73155,73395,69724,76048,69544,71137,81142,72711,78192,75187,74725,68886,73152,69809,64582,65940,61715,61591,62942,54629,63984,60765,60316,49645,52028,56317,53835,55887,49153,46202],"flat_reference_value":16840.858672777893,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[34000.0,32500.0,35500.0,35000.0,36500.0,36000.0,37500.0,38000.0,35500.0,36500.0,34500.0,33500.0,36500.0,35000.0,38500.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,41500.0,39000.0,40000.0,37500.0,36500.0,39000.0,37500.0,41000.0,40500.0,42500.0,41500.0,43500.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,40500.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,44500.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47500.0,48000.0,45000.0,46500.0,43500.0,42500.0,45500.0,43500.0,42000.0,39500.0,45000.0,47500.0,50500.0,51500.0,48500.0,50000.0,47000.0,46500.0,50000.0,47500.0,52500.0,51500.0,54000.0,52500.0,55000.0,55500.0,52000.0,53500.0,50000.0,48500.0,51000.0,48000.0,52000.0,51000.0,53000.0,51000.0,53500.0,54000.0,50500.0,52000.0,48500.0,47000.0,49500.0,46500.0,50500.0,49000.0,51000.0,49000.0,51500.0,52000.0,48500.0,49500.0,46000.0,45000.0,47500.0,45000.0,48500.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,49500.0,50000.0,46500.0,47500.0,44000.0,43000.0,45500.0,42500.0,46000.0,44500.0,46500.0,44500.0,47000.0,46500.0,44000.0,45000.0,41500.0,40500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[84200.0,77800.0,85600.0,84900.0,87400.0,86100.0,89300.0,88700.0,82400.0,81900.0,77500.0,78200.0,85900.0,78100.0,87200.0,86400.0,88900.0,87500.0,91200.0,90400.0,83800.0,83100.0,78900.0,79400.0,86800.0,77600.0,86900.0,85700.0,88100.0,86600.0,90100.0,89500.0,83200.0,82600.0,78400.0,79100.0,87500.0,78900.0,88400.0,87100.0,89600.0,88200.0,92300.0,91800.0,85100.0,84300.0,79800.0,80900.0,88700.0,82400.0,78600.0,81200.0,93400.0,95800.0,99600.0,98900.0,91700.0,90400.0,86800.0,88500.0,96200.0,87400.0,96800.0,94900.0,95700.0,92400.0,94800.0,93600.0,86300.0,85400.0,80900.0,81500.0,88400.0,79200.0,87100.0,85300.0,87600.0,85900.0,89200.0,88100.0,81400.0,80600.0,76200.0,76900.0,83800.0,75400.0,83200.0,81900.0,84100.0,82700.0,85900.0,84800.0,78300.0,77500.0,73400.0,74100.0,80200.0,74300.0,79600.0,77800.0,79400.0,77900.0,80800.0,79700.0,73200.0,72600.0,74800.0,79300.0,76400.0,68500.0,75200.0,73800.0,75400.0,73900.0,76800.0,75600.0,69400.0,68700.0,65200.0,66100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[56200.0,54800.0,61200.0,63400.0,65100.0,62800.0,64500.0,61900.0,58700.0,59400.0,55300.0,53200.0,59100.0,57400.0,65800.0,67200.0,68900.0,66400.0,67800.0,64200.0,61500.0,62300.0,58900.0,56100.0,62400.0,60100.0,68500.0,70200.0,71600.0,68400.0,69700.0,66100.0,63400.0,64800.0,60700.0,58200.0,64100.0,61800.0,69400.0,71000.0,72500.0,69100.0,70400.0,67300.0,63900.0,64500.0,61200.0,59000.0,65300.0,64200.0,74800.0,84100.0,86300.0,79500.0,78200.0,74600.0,70900.0,69400.0,66800.0,65100.0,71200.0,68400.0,76500.0,75900.0,77400.0,72800.0,73100.0,69500.0,65400.0,64800.0,61700.0,59800.0,63500.0,59800.0,66900.0,67400.0,68200.0,64100.0,65300.0,62000.0,58400.0,59100.0,55800.0,53400.0,57900.0,54600.0,61200.0,62400.0,63500.0,60100.0,61300.0,58200.0,55100.0,55700.0,52400.0,50100.0,54200.0,51900.0,57800.0,58900.0,60100.0,56800.0,57400.0,54600.0,51800.0,52400.0,49100.0,47300.0,51200.0,48900.0,54300.0,55400.0,56500.0,53200.0,54100.0,51400.0,48700.0,49200.0,46100.0,44500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[68000.0,64000.0,69000.0,68000.0,70000.0,68000.0,70000.0,69000.0,65000.0,64000.0,61000.0,60000.0,64000.0,60000.0,65000.0,64000.0,65000.0,63000.0,65000.0,64000.0,60000.0,60000.0,57000.0,56000.0,60000.0,56000.0,61000.0,60000.0,61000.0,59000.0,61000.0,60000.0,56000.0,56000.0,53000.0,52000.0,56000.0,52000.0,57000.0,56000.0,57000.0,55000.0,57000.0,56000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,53000.0,50000.0,58000.0,64000.0,63000.0,59000.0,59000.0,58000.0,54000.0,53000.0,51000.0,51000.0,54000.0,50000.0,54000.0,53000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,51000.0,48000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,45000.0,49000.0,48000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,47000.0,44000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,44000.0,41000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,41000.0,39000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,35000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[48000.0,45000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,48000.0,44000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,47000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,47000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,47000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,47000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,47000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,46000.0,43000.0,45000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,49000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,47000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,41000.0,42000.0,42000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,41000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,33000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[40200.0,38400.0,45100.0,47600.0,48900.0,44000.0,37300.0,38700.0,46800.0,48900.0,44100.0,38100.0,42600.0,40800.0,47900.0,50900.0,52400.0,46800.0,39700.0,42000.0,50000.0,51400.0,47200.0,41200.0,46100.0,44200.0,52000.0,54600.0,55800.0,49900.0,43000.0,45400.0,53500.0,54400.0,49700.0,43500.0,50700.0,48400.0,57800.0,60100.0,61000.0,54300.0,47000.0,49700.0,58800.0,60200.0,54500.0,46900.0,52500.0,50200.0,57500.0,52200.0,56300.0,58400.0,50900.0,55000.0,64400.0,66400.0,60500.0,50800.0,60100.0,57700.0,67400.0,70000.0,71200.0,63900.0,57500.0,61000.0,73400.0,86100.0,79400.0,66700.0,71600.0,69200.0,90400.0,84200.0,81700.0,74900.0,68700.0,71000.0,82100.0,86200.0,77800.0,66400.0,72600.0,70200.0,82600.0,86000.0,88400.0,79500.0,72700.0,75300.0,88800.0,90700.0,81800.0,70300.0,77100.0,74700.0,89400.0,91900.0,93900.0,84900.0,77700.0,80000.0,94200.0,96900.0,106600.0,82600.0,86200.0,83600.0,99200.0,101700.0,107300.0,94900.0,84800.0,87300.0,102200.0,104900.0,105800.0,90400.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[10742.0,9421.0,10910.0,10135.0,10587.0,9724.0,9688.0,9765.0,9982.0,10610.0,9620.0,8745.0,10620.0,9250.0,10680.0,9940.0,10350.0,9550.0,9580.0,9440.0,9830.0,10390.0,9450.0,8550.0,10280.0,8950.0,10320.0,9620.0,10050.0,9280.0,9250.0,9180.0,9530.0,10080.0,9150.0,8300.0,9900.0,8680.0,10020.0,9320.0,9720.0,8950.0,8980.0,8850.0,9250.0,9750.0,8850.0,8020.0,10200.0,9050.0,12350.0,12680.0,11500.0,9400.0,9350.0,9300.0,9700.0,10200.0,9400.0,8500.0,10900.0,9600.0,11100.0,10400.0,10750.0,9900.0,9800.0,9750.0,10150.0,10700.0,9850.0,8900.0,10550.0,9300.0,10650.0,10000.0,10300.0,9550.0,9500.0,9600.0,9850.0,10400.0,9400.0,8600.0,9700.0,8450.0,9800.0,9100.0,9500.0,8750.0,8700.0,8800.0,9050.0,9600.0,8650.0,7850.0,9350.0,8300.0,9450.0,8800.0,9200.0,8450.0,8400.0,8500.0,8750.0,9300.0,8350.0,7550.0,8900.0,7800.0,8950.0,8400.0,8800.0,8050.0,8000.0,8100.0,8350.0,8850.0,7950.0,7200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[31842.0,30215.0,35908.0,34226.0,36150.0,34983.0,32470.0,31022.0,36540.0,35782.0,33915.0,29860.0,34320.0,32884.0,38590.0,36975.0,39110.0,37652.0,35240.0,33860.0,39640.0,38870.0,37125.0,32940.0,36215.0,34680.0,40820.0,39155.0,41360.0,39940.0,37290.0,35810.0,41905.0,45120.0,39780.0,35420.0,37640.0,36120.0,42480.0,40860.0,43110.0,41690.0,39020.0,37540.0,43780.0,42960.0,41220.0,36880.0,39180.0,40020.0,48640.0,50310.0,46280.0,43960.0,41470.0,39950.0,45820.0,45180.0,43340.0,38720.0,42610.0,41180.0,47340.0,45720.0,48190.0,46830.0,44120.0,42640.0,49080.0,48260.0,48470.0,42180.0,44220.0,42760.0,48940.0,47310.0,49760.0,48350.0,45620.0,44110.0,50580.0,49840.0,48020.0,43460.0,43120.0,41640.0,47880.0,46220.0,50340.0,47150.0,44380.0,42870.0,48920.0,48180.0,46340.0,41880.0,40540.0,39120.0,45080.0,43460.0,45820.0,44310.0,41720.0,40260.0,46140.0,45380.0,43620.0,39240.0,38620.0,37240.0,42940.0,41380.0,43620.0,42140.0,39620.0,38180.0,43940.0,43180.0,41420.0,37180.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[31500.0,32000.0,34000.0,35500.0,36500.0,37500.0,36800.0,34800.0,34000.0,33500.0,32000.0,30500.0,34000.0,34800.0,37000.0,38500.0,40000.0,41000.0,40200.0,38000.0,37200.0,36500.0,35000.0,33500.0,36800.0,37500.0,40000.0,41800.0,43000.0,44000.0,43200.0,41000.0,40000.0,39500.0,38000.0,36500.0,39500.0,40500.0,43000.0,45000.0,46500.0,47500.0,46800.0,44000.0,43200.0,42500.0,40800.0,39000.0,41000.0,41500.0,39000.0,36000.0,38000.0,42000.0,43500.0,43000.0,42000.0,41500.0,40000.0,38500.0,47000.0,48000.0,50500.0,52000.0,53500.0,54500.0,54000.0,51500.0,50000.0,49000.0,47500.0,45500.0,49000.0,50000.0,52500.0,54000.0,55500.0,56500.0,56000.0,53500.0,52000.0,51000.0,49500.0,47500.0,45000.0,46000.0,48500.0,50000.0,51000.0,52000.0,51500.0,49000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45500.0,43500.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45500.0,46500.0,47500.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41500.0,40000.0,37500.0,38000.0,40000.0,41500.0,42500.0,43000.0,42500.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37500.0,36000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7850.0,7600.0,8350.0,7950.0,7800.0,7350.0,7100.0,7050.0,7600.0,7700.0,7500.0,6700.0,8000.0,7750.0,8400.0,8100.0,7950.0,7500.0,7150.0,7200.0,7700.0,7900.0,7600.0,6750.0,8250.0,8050.0,8600.0,8350.0,8150.0,7700.0,7300.0,7400.0,7850.0,8100.0,7800.0,6950.0,8400.0,9050.0,9250.0,8550.0,8350.0,7900.0,7500.0,7600.0,8050.0,8300.0,8000.0,7100.0,9400.0,9150.0,10800.0,10600.0,9800.0,8800.0,8350.0,8450.0,8950.0,9250.0,8900.0,7900.0,9200.0,8950.0,9750.0,9300.0,9100.0,8600.0,8150.0,8250.0,8800.0,9050.0,9850.0,7750.0,9000.0,8700.0,9350.0,9100.0,9750.0,8400.0,8000.0,8050.0,8550.0,8800.0,8450.0,8250.0,8750.0,8500.0,9100.0,8850.0,8700.0,8200.0,7800.0,7900.0,8350.0,8800.0,8250.0,7400.0,8450.0,8200.0,8750.0,8500.0,8350.0,7900.0,7500.0,7600.0,8050.0,8300.0,8000.0,7100.0,8150.0,7900.0,8450.0,8200.0,8050.0,7600.0,7200.0,7300.0,7750.0,8000.0,7700.0,6850.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[28200.0,29000.0,30800.0,31000.0,30200.0,29000.0,27900.0,27300.0,29900.0,31000.0,30800.0,25000.0,30600.0,31500.0,33400.0,33700.0,32800.0,31500.0,30300.0,29700.0,32500.0,33700.0,33400.0,27100.0,35300.0,36800.0,39500.0,40200.0,39000.0,37200.0,35600.0,34900.0,37800.0,39300.0,38900.0,31500.0,39800.0,41200.0,43500.0,43900.0,42600.0,41200.0,39400.0,38500.0,42300.0,43900.0,43500.0,35300.0,44500.0,46500.0,60000.0,64000.0,56000.0,48500.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,50500.0,50000.0,40000.0,52500.0,53500.0,57500.0,58000.0,56000.0,54500.0,51500.0,50500.0,55000.0,57500.0,57000.0,46500.0,48000.0,49000.0,52500.0,53000.0,51500.0,49500.0,47500.0,46500.0,49000.0,51500.0,51000.0,42000.0,45000.0,46500.0,49500.0,50000.0,48500.0,46500.0,44500.0,43500.0,47500.0,49500.0,49000.0,39500.0,41500.0,43000.0,46000.0,46500.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45500.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40500.0,41000.0,40000.0,38500.0,36500.0,35500.0,39000.0,43500.0,65000.0,54000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[42800.0,38900.0,48500.0,50200.0,46600.0,43700.0,40700.0,44300.0,49400.0,49800.0,45200.0,40700.0,39500.0,35900.0,44600.0,46200.0,43300.0,40200.0,37800.0,40800.0,45400.0,45800.0,41600.0,37600.0,36700.0,33500.0,41400.0,43900.0,40100.0,37300.0,35000.0,37800.0,42000.0,42400.0,38600.0,34900.0,34800.0,31800.0,39200.0,40600.0,38000.0,35400.0,33200.0,35800.0,39900.0,40200.0,36600.0,33100.0,37100.0,33700.0,42100.0,45100.0,41900.0,38800.0,35900.0,38600.0,42700.0,43100.0,39100.0,35200.0,35200.0,32100.0,40000.0,41300.0,38200.0,35600.0,33400.0,36000.0,41000.0,40700.0,37000.0,33200.0,31600.0,28800.0,35400.0,36700.0,34400.0,32100.0,30000.0,32400.0,36200.0,36500.0,33100.0,30000.0,30100.0,27500.0,34700.0,35600.0,32900.0,30700.0,28700.0,31000.0,36500.0,36000.0,31900.0,28900.0,28600.0,26700.0,31400.0,32300.0,30300.0,28200.0,26400.0,28500.0,31900.0,32100.0,29200.0,26400.0,27100.0,24800.0,30200.0,31300.0,29200.0,27300.0,25500.0,27500.0,30900.0,31200.0,28500.0,25800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4300.0,4400.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,4400.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4300.0,4300.0,4600.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,4200.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4300.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3600.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[13650.0,13950.0,15200.0,16100.0,16450.0,16150.0,15500.0,16300.0,16950.0,16150.0,15650.0,14250.0,15000.0,15300.0,16700.0,17700.0,18050.0,17700.0,17000.0,17900.0,18550.0,17700.0,17200.0,15650.0,16300.0,16650.0,18150.0,20800.0,19650.0,19250.0,18500.0,19450.0,21200.0,19250.0,18700.0,17050.0,18500.0,18900.0,20600.0,21850.0,22250.0,21850.0,23100.0,22050.0,22900.0,21850.0,21200.0,19300.0,21100.0,23350.0,29400.0,32450.0,30000.0,27450.0,24000.0,25200.0,26150.0,24950.0,24250.0,22100.0,25200.0,24300.0,29650.0,28100.0,28600.0,32300.0,27000.0,28350.0,34700.0,28100.0,27250.0,24850.0,26850.0,30200.0,29900.0,36500.0,38800.0,31750.0,34200.0,32050.0,33250.0,34300.0,30800.0,28050.0,27750.0,28350.0,33350.0,32750.0,33400.0,32750.0,31500.0,36400.0,34350.0,32750.0,33400.0,29000.0,25950.0,26550.0,28900.0,33150.0,31250.0,30700.0,33050.0,30950.0,35350.0,30700.0,29800.0,27150.0,23750.0,26250.0,26450.0,28100.0,28600.0,29500.0,27000.0,28350.0,29400.0,29750.0,27250.0,24850.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[7200.0,7000.0,8200.0,8500.0,9000.0,9300.0,9200.0,8800.0,8300.0,8100.0,7600.0,7000.0,7600.0,7400.0,8600.0,9000.0,9600.0,9800.0,9700.0,9300.0,8800.0,8500.0,8000.0,7400.0,8100.0,7900.0,9200.0,9700.0,10300.0,10600.0,10400.0,9900.0,9400.0,9000.0,8500.0,7800.0,8500.0,8300.0,9800.0,10300.0,11000.0,11300.0,11100.0,10600.0,10000.0,9600.0,9000.0,8300.0,9000.0,8800.0,10400.0,12000.0,12700.0,13000.0,12700.0,12300.0,11700.0,11200.0,10600.0,9800.0,10500.0,10100.0,11500.0,11900.0,12500.0,12600.0,12300.0,11900.0,11200.0,10800.0,10200.0,9500.0,10000.0,9700.0,11000.0,11300.0,11800.0,12000.0,11600.0,11200.0,10600.0,10200.0,9600.0,9000.0,9500.0,9300.0,10800.0,11200.0,11900.0,12100.0,11800.0,11400.0,10800.0,10400.0,9800.0,9200.0,9800.0,9600.0,11100.0,11600.0,12300.0,12500.0,12200.0,11800.0,11200.0,10800.0,10200.0,9500.0,10000.0,9800.0,11300.0,11700.0,12400.0,12600.0,12300.0,11900.0,11300.0,10900.0,10300.0,9600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1995.0,2100.0,2268.0,2268.0,2205.0,2142.0,2058.0,1932.0,2142.0,2205.0,2100.0,1848.0,1900.0,2000.0,2160.0,2160.0,2100.0,2040.0,1960.0,1840.0,2040.0,2100.0,2000.0,1760.0,1805.0,1900.0,2052.0,2052.0,1995.0,1938.0,1862.0,1748.0,1938.0,1995.0,1900.0,1672.0,1710.0,1800.0,1944.0,1944.0,1890.0,1836.0,1764.0,1656.0,1836.0,1890.0,1800.0,1584.0,1663.0,1750.0,1890.0,1890.0,1838.0,1785.0,1715.0,1610.0,1785.0,1838.0,1750.0,1540.0,1615.0,1700.0,1836.0,1836.0,1785.0,1734.0,1666.0,1564.0,1734.0,1785.0,1700.0,1496.0,1520.0,1600.0,1728.0,1728.0,1680.0,1632.0,1568.0,1472.0,1632.0,1680.0,1600.0,1408.0,1425.0,1500.0,1620.0,1620.0,1575.0,1530.0,1470.0,1380.0,1530.0,1575.0,1500.0,1320.0,1330.0,1400.0,1512.0,1512.0,1470.0,1428.0,1372.0,1288.0,1428.0,1470.0,1400.0,1232.0,1140.0,1200.0,1296.0,1296.0,1260.0,1224.0,1176.0,1104.0,1224.0,1260.0,1200.0,1056.0]}},{"title":"Ishikawa diagram","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Ishikawa diagram\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[39567,42464,45663,43224,43810,41411,34220,36639,41452,44609,47842,38168,40859,42141,48732,42142,45316,38550,33339,33414,35381,37613,40367,30670,35389,34286,38787,39591,38479,33004,35595,39061,39475,42480,38720,32667,36876,36645,39792,38326,37364,32308,33441,31246,32768,35844,35746,28180,59401,37819,32890,31996,30585,28496,27217,26281,31707,39168,36385,30137,30167,33012,39120,32108,30559,30632,27123,25547,29166,29983,31016,24846,26480,28819,34147,29537,27144,25319,23433,25866,29908,31289,34209,25456,30250,29949,33037,24862,28629,27317,25642,26725,27297,32257,30483,23108,36628,31729,30900,28149,25553,21416,22571,21180,25167,25052,23721,23133,21771,20131,20520,18187,16842,14697,15657,15153,17411,18278,16208,12857],"flat_reference_value":16911.578089138642,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[27000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,29000.0,33000.0,31000.0,25000.0,28000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,30000.0,34000.0,32000.0,26000.0,29000.0,31000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,31000.0,35000.0,33000.0,27000.0,30000.0,32000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,32000.0,36000.0,34000.0,28000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,34000.0,38000.0,36000.0,29000.0,32000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,35000.0,39000.0,37000.0,30000.0,33000.0,35000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,36000.0,40000.0,38000.0,31000.0,34000.0,36000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,37000.0,41000.0,39000.0,31000.0,34000.0,36000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,37000.0,41000.0,38000.0,31000.0,33000.0,35000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,36000.0,40000.0,37000.0,30000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[49800.0,54100.0,58200.0,57300.0,55000.0,47900.0,44100.0,45300.0,53800.0,59100.0,55900.0,42500.0,48100.0,51900.0,56200.0,54600.0,53100.0,46000.0,42400.0,43700.0,51800.0,56800.0,53900.0,40800.0,45400.0,48900.0,52800.0,51900.0,49700.0,43100.0,40100.0,41200.0,48700.0,53600.0,50600.0,38500.0,43500.0,46800.0,50500.0,49600.0,47800.0,41300.0,38600.0,39200.0,46900.0,51400.0,48300.0,36900.0,41200.0,44100.0,39800.0,38500.0,41600.0,38200.0,35900.0,36400.0,43100.0,46700.0,44200.0,34500.0,38100.0,40900.0,44300.0,43100.0,41200.0,35800.0,33100.0,34000.0,40200.0,43900.0,41800.0,32100.0,35400.0,37900.0,41100.0,39600.0,38200.0,33400.0,30700.0,31800.0,37400.0,40800.0,38600.0,29400.0,32200.0,34300.0,37100.0,35400.0,34200.0,29800.0,27300.0,28100.0,32900.0,35800.0,33700.0,25600.0,27800.0,29600.0,31700.0,30800.0,29400.0,25300.0,23400.0,23900.0,27800.0,30400.0,28500.0,21800.0,23600.0,25100.0,27100.0,26300.0,25000.0,21700.0,20100.0,20500.0,23900.0,26100.0,24400.0,18900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[62400.0,69200.0,75800.0,74100.0,71500.0,58300.0,49800.0,52700.0,68400.0,78900.0,77200.0,48100.0,63800.0,70900.0,77600.0,73200.0,72400.0,59100.0,51200.0,54600.0,70300.0,80100.0,78400.0,49500.0,65100.0,71400.0,78200.0,74500.0,71800.0,58200.0,50900.0,53700.0,69100.0,79500.0,76800.0,47900.0,63500.0,68900.0,76200.0,71800.0,69400.0,56100.0,48700.0,51300.0,66800.0,76300.0,73900.0,46200.0,61200.0,67400.0,61800.0,62500.0,64100.0,53200.0,46800.0,49100.0,64500.0,73100.0,71200.0,44900.0,59800.0,66100.0,73400.0,69800.0,66200.0,53900.0,46300.0,48900.0,63700.0,72400.0,70100.0,43800.0,57900.0,63500.0,70800.0,66700.0,63400.0,51600.0,44500.0,47200.0,61100.0,69200.0,66800.0,41700.0,54200.0,58900.0,65300.0,61400.0,58200.0,47100.0,40800.0,43200.0,55800.0,63400.0,61100.0,37900.0,49800.0,54700.0,60500.0,57100.0,53900.0,43400.0,37600.0,39800.0,51200.0,58600.0,56400.0,35200.0,46500.0,51200.0,56800.0,53400.0,50100.0,40600.0,35100.0,37300.0,48200.0,54900.0,52700.0,33100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[71250.0,78750.0,84000.0,78750.0,75000.0,66000.0,61500.0,63750.0,75000.0,84000.0,84000.0,63750.0,66500.0,73500.0,78400.0,73500.0,70000.0,61600.0,57400.0,59500.0,70000.0,78400.0,78400.0,59500.0,61750.0,68250.0,72800.0,68250.0,65000.0,57200.0,53300.0,55250.0,65000.0,72800.0,72800.0,55250.0,57000.0,63000.0,67200.0,63000.0,60000.0,52800.0,49200.0,51000.0,60000.0,67200.0,67200.0,51000.0,52250.0,57750.0,58000.0,55000.0,55000.0,48400.0,45100.0,46750.0,55000.0,61600.0,61600.0,46750.0,47500.0,52500.0,56000.0,52500.0,50000.0,44000.0,41000.0,42500.0,50000.0,56000.0,56000.0,42500.0,43700.0,48300.0,51520.0,48300.0,46000.0,40480.0,37720.0,39100.0,46000.0,51520.0,51520.0,39100.0,39900.0,44100.0,47040.0,44100.0,42000.0,36960.0,34440.0,35700.0,42000.0,47040.0,47040.0,35700.0,36100.0,39900.0,42560.0,39900.0,38000.0,33440.0,31160.0,32300.0,38000.0,42560.0,42560.0,32300.0,32300.0,35700.0,38080.0,35700.0,34000.0,29920.0,27880.0,28900.0,34000.0,38080.0,38080.0,28900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[93000.0,99000.0,104000.0,100000.0,96000.0,86000.0,80000.0,83000.0,95000.0,104000.0,104000.0,80000.0,90000.0,94000.0,99000.0,93000.0,90000.0,80000.0,75000.0,78000.0,88000.0,96000.0,95000.0,72000.0,82000.0,85000.0,89000.0,84000.0,80000.0,71000.0,67000.0,69000.0,78000.0,85000.0,84000.0,64000.0,73000.0,75000.0,78000.0,73000.0,70000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,68000.0,74000.0,73000.0,55000.0,63000.0,65000.0,64000.0,66000.0,64000.0,56000.0,51000.0,52000.0,58000.0,63000.0,62000.0,47000.0,54000.0,55000.0,58000.0,53000.0,50000.0,45000.0,41000.0,42000.0,47000.0,51000.0,50000.0,38000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,42000.0,40000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,42000.0,41000.0,31000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,34000.0,37000.0,36000.0,28000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31000.0,24000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,21000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[28400.0,30100.0,29200.0,27300.0,26600.0,25100.0,23200.0,24300.0,28600.0,29400.0,27100.0,23600.0,31700.0,33200.0,32500.0,30200.0,29500.0,27800.0,25600.0,27100.0,31600.0,32500.0,30100.0,26500.0,34800.0,36400.0,35600.0,33100.0,32600.0,30700.0,28200.0,29600.0,34700.0,35600.0,33200.0,29100.0,38000.0,39700.0,39100.0,36200.0,35500.0,33300.0,30700.0,32600.0,38000.0,39200.0,36100.0,31800.0,42100.0,44300.0,49800.0,52400.0,49300.0,42700.0,35900.0,36200.0,42300.0,44000.0,40300.0,35200.0,44300.0,46400.0,45700.0,42200.0,41300.0,38700.0,35800.0,38100.0,44200.0,45700.0,42100.0,37200.0,48400.0,50700.0,49800.0,46300.0,45200.0,42600.0,39300.0,41700.0,48300.0,49800.0,46100.0,40600.0,52700.0,55200.0,54300.0,50200.0,49100.0,46300.0,42700.0,45200.0,52600.0,54100.0,50300.0,44100.0,56900.0,59600.0,58500.0,54300.0,53200.0,49800.0,46200.0,48800.0,56800.0,58600.0,54200.0,47600.0,58700.0,61400.0,60300.0,55800.0,54300.0,50600.0,46100.0,47200.0,54300.0,55600.0,51600.0,45600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[12480.0,11930.0,12750.0,11720.0,11280.0,9280.0,8310.0,8745.0,10960.0,12810.0,12240.0,9380.0,13510.0,13120.0,13940.0,12830.0,12310.0,10150.0,9120.0,9680.0,11940.0,13920.0,13360.0,10240.0,15230.0,14780.0,15620.0,14490.0,13820.0,11410.0,10080.0,10890.0,13470.0,15680.0,15020.0,11530.0,16380.0,15920.0,16810.0,15540.0,14830.0,12270.0,10940.0,11650.0,14520.0,16890.0,16140.0,12410.0,18420.0,17980.0,19250.0,17500.0,16840.0,13890.0,12210.0,13180.0,16530.0,19120.0,18460.0,14180.0,19630.0,19150.0,20280.0,18820.0,17910.0,14820.0,13050.0,14020.0,17540.0,20210.0,19580.0,15030.0,19050.0,18620.0,19680.0,18240.0,17350.0,14380.0,12720.0,13610.0,17020.0,19640.0,18930.0,14560.0,17980.0,17540.0,18460.0,17210.0,16320.0,13540.0,11980.0,12830.0,16010.0,18490.0,17820.0,13720.0,16320.0,15890.0,16750.0,15580.0,14810.0,12240.0,10820.0,11610.0,14480.0,16720.0,16100.0,12380.0,14620.0,14280.0,15010.0,13940.0,13260.0,10980.0,9730.0,10420.0,13010.0,15040.0,14470.0,11120.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[32100.0,33000.0,35200.0,36200.0,33900.0,28800.0,25900.0,26900.0,33000.0,35200.0,34600.0,28800.0,34100.0,35000.0,37400.0,38400.0,36000.0,30600.0,27500.0,28600.0,35000.0,37400.0,36700.0,30600.0,36100.0,37100.0,39600.0,40700.0,38200.0,32400.0,29200.0,30200.0,37100.0,42000.0,38900.0,32400.0,38100.0,39100.0,45100.0,42900.0,40300.0,34200.0,30800.0,31900.0,39100.0,41800.0,41000.0,34200.0,41100.0,42200.0,53200.0,53200.0,47000.0,38000.0,33200.0,34400.0,42200.0,45100.0,44300.0,36900.0,43100.0,44300.0,47300.0,48600.0,45600.0,38700.0,34800.0,36100.0,44300.0,47300.0,46400.0,38700.0,45100.0,46400.0,49500.0,50900.0,47700.0,40500.0,36500.0,37800.0,46400.0,49500.0,48600.0,40500.0,47100.0,48400.0,51700.0,53100.0,49800.0,42300.0,38100.0,39500.0,48400.0,51700.0,50800.0,42300.0,51600.0,51200.0,50600.0,52000.0,48800.0,41400.0,37300.0,38600.0,47400.0,50600.0,49700.0,41400.0,44100.0,45300.0,48400.0,49700.0,46600.0,39600.0,35600.0,37000.0,45300.0,48400.0,47500.0,39600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[29200.0,32100.0,33800.0,32700.0,30900.0,25500.0,24200.0,26700.0,33300.0,34500.0,32100.0,26100.0,30900.0,33400.0,35300.0,34700.0,32100.0,27100.0,25200.0,27700.0,34700.0,35900.0,34000.0,27100.0,32300.0,35000.0,37000.0,36300.0,33700.0,28400.0,26400.0,29000.0,36300.0,37600.0,35600.0,28400.0,33800.0,36600.0,38600.0,38000.0,35200.0,29700.0,27600.0,30400.0,38000.0,39300.0,37300.0,29700.0,35300.0,38200.0,40300.0,39600.0,36700.0,31000.0,28800.0,31700.0,39600.0,41000.0,38900.0,31000.0,38200.0,41300.0,43700.0,42900.0,39800.0,33500.0,31200.0,34300.0,42900.0,44500.0,42100.0,33500.0,40200.0,43500.0,45900.0,45100.0,41800.0,35300.0,32800.0,36100.0,45100.0,46700.0,44300.0,35300.0,42100.0,45600.0,48200.0,47300.0,43900.0,37000.0,34400.0,37800.0,47300.0,49000.0,46400.0,37000.0,43600.0,47200.0,49800.0,49000.0,45400.0,38300.0,35600.0,39200.0,49000.0,50700.0,48100.0,38300.0,44600.0,48200.0,51000.0,50100.0,46400.0,39100.0,36400.0,40000.0,50100.0,51900.0,49100.0,39100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[8225.0,6984.0,8158.0,7479.0,7420.0,6558.0,5904.0,6440.0,8145.0,8446.0,7841.0,6146.0,8342.0,7752.0,8360.0,8298.0,7519.0,7131.0,5983.0,6601.0,8767.0,8653.0,8444.0,6822.0,8937.0,7821.0,8864.0,8207.0,8058.0,7339.0,6672.0,6590.0,8760.0,9085.0,8951.0,6813.0,9203.0,8549.0,8947.0,8886.0,8381.0,7636.0,6670.0,7281.0,9482.0,9640.0,9039.0,7304.0,9841.0,8700.0,10336.0,9960.0,9406.0,8404.0,7348.0,7856.0,10524.0,10805.0,10144.0,7810.0,9868.0,9078.0,9790.0,9623.0,8987.0,8269.0,7079.0,7884.0,10068.0,10235.0,9986.0,7675.0,9632.0,8428.0,9649.0,9025.0,8858.0,7754.0,7123.0,7322.0,9440.0,9989.0,9460.0,7644.0,9368.0,8200.0,9110.0,8518.0,8364.0,7469.0,6724.0,6911.0,8908.0,9241.0,8930.0,7000.0,8506.0,7828.0,8440.0,8379.0,7747.0,7130.0,6292.0,6732.0,8680.0,9091.0,8355.0,6820.0,8314.0,7277.0,8085.0,7635.0,7572.0,6694.0,5906.0,6321.0,8150.0,8538.0,7923.0,6339.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3680.0,4410.0,4890.0,4530.0,4100.0,3260.0,2920.0,3080.0,4380.0,4880.0,4510.0,3460.0,3960.0,4720.0,5060.0,4960.0,4410.0,3510.0,3080.0,3390.0,4660.0,5220.0,4860.0,3740.0,4240.0,5040.0,5420.0,5200.0,4790.0,3760.0,3300.0,3610.0,5030.0,5610.0,5190.0,4000.0,4610.0,5490.0,6120.0,5660.0,5200.0,4090.0,3590.0,3930.0,5450.0,6080.0,5640.0,4340.0,5170.0,6140.0,7200.0,7450.0,5900.0,4520.0,3980.0,4300.0,6250.0,6950.0,6300.0,4830.0,5540.0,6580.0,7080.0,6920.0,6160.0,4910.0,4300.0,4720.0,6640.0,7460.0,6760.0,5210.0,5260.0,6250.0,6720.0,6450.0,5850.0,4660.0,4080.0,4470.0,6260.0,6960.0,6420.0,4960.0,4980.0,5920.0,6370.0,6100.0,5540.0,4410.0,3860.0,4240.0,5900.0,6580.0,6080.0,4690.0,4700.0,5600.0,6010.0,5760.0,5230.0,4170.0,3640.0,4010.0,5580.0,6260.0,5740.0,4420.0,4510.0,5380.0,5770.0,5540.0,5030.0,4000.0,3500.0,3850.0,5360.0,5990.0,5520.0,4250.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6650.0,6050.0,6250.0,6000.0,5750.0,5400.0,4950.0,5250.0,6400.0,6050.0,5850.0,5150.0,6850.0,6250.0,6500.0,6250.0,5950.0,5650.0,5150.0,5450.0,6650.0,6300.0,6050.0,5350.0,7150.0,6550.0,6750.0,6550.0,6250.0,5900.0,5450.0,5700.0,7000.0,6650.0,6400.0,5650.0,7500.0,6950.0,7700.0,7150.0,6850.0,6400.0,5850.0,6150.0,7450.0,7100.0,6850.0,6050.0,7850.0,7300.0,9200.0,9700.0,9300.0,8650.0,7850.0,8300.0,9500.0,9100.0,8800.0,7850.0,8900.0,8150.0,8650.0,8400.0,8100.0,7550.0,6900.0,7250.0,8350.0,8000.0,7750.0,6900.0,8050.0,7400.0,7850.0,7600.0,7350.0,6850.0,6250.0,6600.0,7650.0,7300.0,7050.0,6250.0,8150.0,7550.0,7900.0,7650.0,7400.0,6900.0,6300.0,6650.0,7750.0,7450.0,7150.0,6350.0,8450.0,7800.0,8150.0,7900.0,7600.0,7100.0,6500.0,6850.0,7950.0,7650.0,7350.0,6550.0,8650.0,7950.0,8350.0,8100.0,7850.0,7300.0,6650.0,7000.0,8150.0,7850.0,7550.0,6700.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[7000.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,6500.0,6000.0,6600.0,7800.0,8200.0,8300.0,6800.0,7600.0,8200.0,8700.0,8300.0,8100.0,6900.0,6400.0,7000.0,8300.0,8800.0,8900.0,7200.0,8100.0,8700.0,9200.0,8800.0,8600.0,7300.0,6800.0,7500.0,8800.0,9300.0,9300.0,7600.0,8500.0,9100.0,9600.0,9200.0,9000.0,7600.0,7100.0,7800.0,9200.0,9700.0,9600.0,7900.0,8800.0,9300.0,9800.0,9600.0,9300.0,8000.0,7500.0,8200.0,9600.0,10000.0,9800.0,8100.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9600.0,9300.0,8000.0,7500.0,8200.0,9500.0,9800.0,9700.0,7900.0,8800.0,9300.0,9700.0,9200.0,9000.0,7700.0,7100.0,7800.0,9100.0,9400.0,9300.0,7500.0,8400.0,8900.0,9300.0,8700.0,8500.0,7200.0,6700.0,7400.0,8600.0,8900.0,8800.0,7000.0,7900.0,8400.0,8700.0,8300.0,8000.0,6800.0,6300.0,6900.0,8100.0,8400.0,8200.0,6600.0,7400.0,7900.0,8200.0,7700.0,7500.0,6300.0,5900.0,6500.0,7600.0,7900.0,7700.0,6200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[5840.0,5090.0,5430.0,4870.0,5320.0,5010.0,3920.0,4290.0,6040.0,5770.0,5430.0,4380.0,6580.0,5460.0,5790.0,5290.0,5740.0,5320.0,4210.0,4650.0,6730.0,6170.0,5620.0,4700.0,6570.0,5730.0,6090.0,5540.0,5990.0,5620.0,4410.0,4870.0,7310.0,6560.0,5900.0,4930.0,6830.0,5970.0,6300.0,5720.0,6260.0,5810.0,4620.0,5040.0,7060.0,6770.0,6410.0,5120.0,7580.0,6510.0,7840.0,7120.0,7350.0,6780.0,5330.0,5970.0,8270.0,8010.0,7230.0,5840.0,7060.0,6120.0,6480.0,5990.0,6220.0,6010.0,4780.0,5160.0,7210.0,7680.0,6350.0,5250.0,6620.0,5720.0,6530.0,5610.0,5840.0,5670.0,4470.0,4840.0,6800.0,6540.0,5960.0,4950.0,6150.0,5340.0,5680.0,5210.0,5710.0,5260.0,4130.0,4500.0,6330.0,6100.0,5540.0,4610.0,5980.0,5180.0,5490.0,5040.0,5250.0,5080.0,4010.0,4360.0,6120.0,6700.0,5330.0,4420.0,5700.0,5010.0,5280.0,4860.0,5040.0,4870.0,3860.0,4200.0,5940.0,5700.0,5130.0,4260.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2600.0,2800.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,2950.0,2700.0,2750.0,3100.0,3300.0,3000.0,2500.0,2700.0,2850.0,3250.0,3150.0,3300.0,3000.0,2750.0,2800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3450.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,2900.0,2950.0,3400.0,3600.0,3250.0,2800.0,3100.0,3300.0,3600.0,3450.0,3700.0,3400.0,3100.0,3150.0,3550.0,3750.0,3400.0,2950.0,3200.0,3350.0,3650.0,3500.0,3650.0,3350.0,3050.0,3100.0,3500.0,3650.0,3300.0,2850.0,3000.0,3150.0,3450.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,2950.0,3000.0,3350.0,3500.0,3150.0,2750.0,2900.0,3050.0,3300.0,3200.0,3350.0,3100.0,2850.0,2900.0,3250.0,3400.0,3100.0,2700.0,2850.0,3000.0,3250.0,3150.0,3300.0,3050.0,2800.0,2850.0,3200.0,3350.0,3000.0,2650.0,2800.0,2950.0,3200.0,3100.0,3250.0,3000.0,2750.0,2800.0,3150.0,3300.0,2950.0,2600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2730.0,2912.0,2912.0,2730.0,2652.0,2470.0,2210.0,2210.0,2730.0,2860.0,2730.0,2288.0,2835.0,3024.0,3024.0,2835.0,2754.0,2565.0,2295.0,2295.0,2835.0,2970.0,2835.0,2376.0,2940.0,3136.0,3136.0,2940.0,2856.0,2660.0,2380.0,2380.0,2940.0,3080.0,2940.0,2464.0,2783.0,2968.0,2968.0,2783.0,2703.0,2518.0,2253.0,2253.0,2783.0,2915.0,2783.0,2332.0,3255.0,3472.0,3472.0,3255.0,3162.0,2945.0,2635.0,2635.0,3255.0,3410.0,3255.0,2728.0,3098.0,3304.0,3304.0,3098.0,3009.0,2803.0,2508.0,2508.0,3098.0,3245.0,3098.0,2596.0,2940.0,3136.0,3136.0,2940.0,2856.0,2660.0,2380.0,2380.0,2940.0,3080.0,2940.0,2464.0,2730.0,2912.0,2912.0,2730.0,2652.0,2470.0,2210.0,2210.0,2730.0,2860.0,2730.0,2288.0,2468.0,2632.0,2632.0,2468.0,2397.0,2233.0,1998.0,1998.0,2468.0,2585.0,2468.0,2068.0,2258.0,2408.0,2408.0,2258.0,2193.0,2043.0,1828.0,1828.0,2258.0,2365.0,2258.0,1892.0]}},{"title":"Dinesh Vijan","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Dinesh Vijan\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[2790,2269,3845,3521,2650,5394,5160,6084,4816,7478,4250,4780,6337,4848,4687,28159,20559,22259,6303,4676,3719,3959,3320,3069,4100,3201,3154,3398,2478,3675,8167,10434,23053,7056,8451,40201,18668,12440,24370,7547,6861,12648,9773,9396,13151,17941,30440,16540,22633,21310,16499,18467,12325,39357,14562,8980,6132,8967,8546,8235,8662,9415,14710,11759,8229,9155,32572,21285,11814,20652,13559,8429,10326,6972,7658,12065,9586,9992,10649,8319,8892,24059,39118,19280,9757,9422,14272,13015,24065,25301,12858,10806,7094,7671,5811,8555,14589,26540,18444,12058,11075,25811,20202,128846,96304,41591,22930,15903,56804,127181,57912,39155,28851,24059,17840,51467,28520,57207,20331,25729],"flat_reference_value":16993.42394437807,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[900.0,850.0,1000.0,950.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1700.0,2000.0,5000.0,12000.0,5000.0,3000.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,3000.0,6500.0,12000.0,6000.0,4000.0,3500.0,4000.0,5000.0,12000.0,6500.0,4500.0,4000.0,4000.0,4500.0,4000.0,5000.0,12000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5000.0,11000.0,6000.0,4500.0,5000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,6000.0,5500.0,6000.0,5000.0,4500.0,5000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4500.0,10000.0,10000.0,6000.0,5500.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,8000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,15000.0,11000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,8000.0,17000.0,10000.0,20000.0,12000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,10000.0,25000.0,15000.0,11000.0,11000.0,28000.0,20000.0,125000.0,80000.0,35000.0,25000.0,22000.0,35000.0,120000.0,100000.0,45000.0,40000.0,28000.0,25000.0,40000.0,30000.0,40000.0,30000.0,25000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[3400.0,3200.0,3600.0,4100.0,3800.0,4500.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,4300.0,4800.0,5200.0,5600.0,6400.0,14500.0,24000.0,56000.0,18500.0,10200.0,8400.0,7600.0,7200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7100.0,7900.0,8200.0,7800.0,8500.0,9400.0,19000.0,34000.0,15500.0,14000.0,68000.0,16500.0,13500.0,24500.0,13000.0,11500.0,11000.0,18500.0,13500.0,12500.0,21000.0,28000.0,15500.0,16000.0,26500.0,29000.0,18500.0,16000.0,88000.0,54000.0,46000.0,35000.0,112000.0,28000.0,19000.0,16500.0,17500.0,29500.0,16000.0,14500.0,16500.0,34000.0,22000.0,16000.0,26000.0,18500.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,15500.0,23000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,19500.0,42000.0,24000.0,16500.0,15000.0,16000.0,15500.0,19000.0,38000.0,24000.0,19500.0,18000.0,19000.0,17500.0,18500.0,21000.0,36000.0,25000.0,21500.0,24000.0,58000.0,45000.0,195000.0,92000.0,48000.0,36000.0,34000.0,52000.0,105000.0,64000.0,38000.0,44000.0,33000.0,35000.0,42000.0,34000.0,78000.0,46000.0,36000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[1820.0,1940.0,1750.0,1890.0,2100.0,2350.0,2040.0,2180.0,1920.0,2050.0,2210.0,2400.0,2600.0,2750.0,3100.0,3800.0,6200.0,13900.0,5800.0,4600.0,4100.0,3950.0,4200.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4700.0,4900.0,5200.0,5800.0,7100.0,17800.0,23500.0,9800.0,8400.0,16200.0,8600.0,9400.0,12800.0,8900.0,7800.0,7200.0,8400.0,8100.0,7600.0,8900.0,13400.0,8200.0,7900.0,8300.0,9100.0,5600.0,5200.0,11400.0,9800.0,9200.0,8500.0,26400.0,18200.0,9700.0,8400.0,8900.0,11200.0,7800.0,6900.0,8100.0,15800.0,11400.0,8700.0,9800.0,8900.0,8300.0,7900.0,8500.0,9200.0,10800.0,8900.0,8400.0,8700.0,9100.0,9800.0,12400.0,22100.0,13500.0,10200.0,9800.0,11400.0,9900.0,10500.0,15200.0,11800.0,10600.0,10200.0,10800.0,11500.0,12100.0,13400.0,16800.0,14200.0,12900.0,14100.0,29500.0,22400.0,87500.0,68200.0,27900.0,21800.0,19400.0,18200.0,31200.0,23500.0,18900.0,17800.0,18400.0,19200.0,21500.0,20400.0,24800.0,19600.0,18700.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,2300.0,3500.0,6500.0,3200.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,7500.0,9000.0,4500.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,6000.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3400.0,6500.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3400.0,5200.0,3600.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3400.0,6500.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,6000.0,4200.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4500.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,9000.0,8000.0,32000.0,18000.0,10000.0,8500.0,8000.0,14000.0,30000.0,17000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,16000.0,11000.0,9000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,5200.0,5500.0,7000.0,14000.0,28000.0,9000.0,7000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5200.0,5500.0,5300.0,5500.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,7000.0,14000.0,22000.0,12000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9500.0,15000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,13000.0,17000.0,10000.0,10000.0,15000.0,15000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,14000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,14000.0,13000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,11000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9000.0,15000.0,13000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,20000.0,13000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,20000.0,14000.0,11000.0,11000.0,25000.0,18000.0,85000.0,65000.0,32000.0,20000.0,20000.0,35000.0,110000.0,75000.0,35000.0,30000.0,22000.0,18000.0,25000.0,22000.0,40000.0,25000.0,20000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[640.0,610.0,690.0,670.0,710.0,680.0,730.0,700.0,660.0,690.0,720.0,750.0,880.0,860.0,900.0,950.0,2600.0,3100.0,1600.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,3600.0,9500.0,4200.0,2300.0,1900.0,1600.0,1900.0,5200.0,2400.0,1900.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1900.0,3900.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,4800.0,8200.0,13500.0,3200.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,3300.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,3100.0,2700.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1700.0,1600.0,1650.0,2500.0,1750.0,1700.0,2300.0,1800.0,2100.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2600.0,5600.0,2900.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,3300.0,7200.0,4100.0,3200.0,3000.0,4700.0,4200.0,38000.0,55000.0,28000.0,17000.0,14000.0,18000.0,70000.0,45000.0,22000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,16000.0,14000.0,22000.0,16000.0,13000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[850.0,790.0,820.0,880.0,910.0,760.0,840.0,890.0,920.0,980.0,1010.0,940.0,1050.0,1100.0,1250.0,1800.0,3200.0,6500.0,2800.0,1600.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,1350.0,1500.0,1400.0,1650.0,1800.0,2500.0,8500.0,5200.0,3200.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,3800.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,1950.0,2050.0,2200.0,2600.0,4200.0,2800.0,2100.0,2000.0,3500.0,2800.0,2400.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2800.0,2400.0,2100.0,2200.0,4800.0,3000.0,2600.0,2500.0,2800.0,3500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,6500.0,3800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,5500.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,6500.0,4200.0,3800.0,4000.0,7500.0,8500.0,26000.0,18000.0,12000.0,8000.0,7000.0,6500.0,16000.0,9000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,9500.0,8000.0,14000.0,9000.0,7500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,3800.0,4300.0,4600.0,4200.0,5900.0,4400.0,4100.0,4600.0,4000.0,5000.0,5300.0,5700.0,5200.0,9500.0,22000.0,9000.0,6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,6400.0,5600.0,6000.0,5700.0,6100.0,5900.0,6300.0,6600.0,7200.0,12500.0,58000.0,17000.0,11000.0,8800.0,8200.0,8600.0,26000.0,11500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9300.0,10800.0,10200.0,17500.0,33000.0,11500.0,11500.0,34000.0,19000.0,9000.0,8500.0,25000.0,13500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,13000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,31000.0,12500.0,9000.0,8800.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,18500.0,11500.0,10500.0,11500.0,11000.0,12000.0,12500.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14500.0,23000.0,15500.0,52000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17500.0,18500.0,17500.0,18500.0,35000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,21500.0,22500.0,20500.0,23000.0,22500.0,23500.0,24000.0,26500.0,68000.0,42000.0,145000.0,52000.0,32000.0,28500.0,25500.0,38000.0,140000.0,65000.0,33000.0,28000.0,29500.0,28500.0,36000.0,32000.0,58000.0,34500.0,30500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[450.0,420.0,400.0,430.0,480.0,520.0,500.0,700.0,650.0,550.0,500.0,480.0,500.0,520.0,550.0,600.0,800.0,4500.0,2500.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,750.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,950.0,1200.0,12000.0,8000.0,3000.0,1500.0,1200.0,1200.0,1800.0,6000.0,2500.0,1500.0,2000.0,3500.0,1800.0,1500.0,2000.0,7000.0,3000.0,1800.0,2200.0,5000.0,2500.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,2200.0,6000.0,2500.0,2000.0,2200.0,5000.0,2500.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,2500.0,2000.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,3000.0,7000.0,3500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2800.0,3500.0,8000.0,5000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,3200.0,3500.0,4000.0,4500.0,12000.0,6000.0,60000.0,25000.0,8000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,5500.0,6000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[520.0,540.0,580.0,610.0,600.0,640.0,660.0,680.0,700.0,720.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,820.0,1300.0,1100.0,4600.0,2900.0,1600.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1650.0,2100.0,2700.0,7200.0,10800.0,4600.0,3000.0,2400.0,2300.0,3600.0,7200.0,5100.0,2900.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3800.0,6400.0,4000.0,3200.0,3800.0,5200.0,6800.0,3600.0,3400.0,4100.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,5800.0,8400.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5100.0,5200.0,5400.0,5600.0,5700.0,5900.0,6000.0,6100.0,6200.0,6800.0,11000.0,7200.0,6800.0,7600.0,9800.0,14500.0,42000.0,31000.0,20000.0,10200.0,8000.0,13800.0,9200.0,7600.0,7300.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,12500.0,18000.0,34000.0,17000.0,10200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[120.0,115.0,118.0,120.0,128.0,125.0,128.0,132.0,134.0,142.0,148.0,158.0,195.0,185.0,195.0,198.0,210.0,205.0,215.0,340.0,225.0,240.0,250.0,265.0,265.0,250.0,265.0,268.0,285.0,278.0,288.0,295.0,300.0,318.0,330.0,350.0,356.0,340.0,360.0,365.0,388.0,378.0,392.0,402.0,410.0,710.0,475.0,505.0,432.0,410.0,430.0,560.0,510.0,500.0,515.0,530.0,540.0,575.0,595.0,635.0,518.0,495.0,520.0,525.0,560.0,545.0,565.0,580.0,590.0,630.0,650.0,700.0,615.0,588.0,620.0,625.0,668.0,900.0,705.0,725.0,740.0,790.0,815.0,875.0,734.0,700.0,740.0,745.0,795.0,775.0,800.0,820.0,835.0,895.0,1690.0,970.0,1058.0,2800.0,1906.0,1310.0,1134.0,957.0,835.0,806.0,785.0,840.0,867.0,913.0,821.0,765.0,798.0,780.0,843.0,822.0,1270.0,831.0,820.0,882.0,910.0,968.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[7200.0,16500.0,31000.0,11500.0,8500.0,6600.0,6100.0,5700.0,5300.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,5100.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3700.0,3900.0,4200.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3700.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,4200.0,4700.0,4200.0,8500.0,6400.0,7200.0,4500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,6500.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3900.0,4000.0,3500.0,4300.0,3700.0,4500.0,4000.0,28000.0,12500.0,15500.0,7000.0,5200.0,4700.0,4900.0,8000.0,4700.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,5000.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,3800.0,3500.0,3700.0,7500.0,4000.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,20000.0,5500.0,4000.0,4200.0,3600.0,5000.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[300.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,250.0,260.0,250.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,260.0,270.0,260.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,270.0,270.0,280.0,290.0,280.0,280.0,290.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,380.0,520.0,900.0,650.0,500.0,450.0,450.0,520.0,800.0,600.0,520.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,480.0,470.0,460.0,470.0,480.0,520.0,700.0,560.0,520.0,560.0,520.0,500.0,500.0,490.0,500.0,500.0,510.0,520.0,560.0,560.0,560.0,600.0,580.0,600.0,620.0,640.0,660.0,680.0,700.0,720.0,740.0,760.0,900.0,900.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,1000.0,1600.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1900.0,2100.0,2400.0,4200.0,4000.0,9500.0,6500.0,4200.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,4600.0,3800.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[220.0,180.0,140.0,115.0,100.0,90.0,85.0,95.0,105.0,115.0,108.0,130.0,105.0,88.0,82.0,78.0,74.0,80.0,72.0,70.0,84.0,92.0,86.0,98.0,92.0,84.0,80.0,78.0,74.0,80.0,76.0,84.0,88.0,95.0,100.0,112.0,105.0,98.0,92.0,88.0,86.0,90.0,85.0,95.0,110.0,125.0,120.0,135.0,125.0,110.0,85.0,75.0,68.0,65.0,70.0,82.0,95.0,105.0,100.0,90.0,95.0,90.0,82.0,78.0,74.0,80.0,85.0,95.0,105.0,115.0,120.0,128.0,125.0,118.0,110.0,105.0,100.0,108.0,115.0,125.0,130.0,140.0,150.0,165.0,160.0,148.0,138.0,130.0,128.0,135.0,140.0,150.0,162.0,175.0,190.0,220.0,380.0,540.0,2600.0,1900.0,3200.0,2500.0,1900.0,1550.0,1450.0,1350.0,1650.0,1850.0,1650.0,1250.0,1000.0,900.0,1150.0,950.0,850.0,900.0,1000.0,1100.0,1250.0,1400.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[250.0,230.0,280.0,270.0,300.0,280.0,320.0,300.0,350.0,340.0,400.0,380.0,410.0,390.0,430.0,420.0,800.0,700.0,470.0,450.0,480.0,500.0,470.0,520.0,500.0,480.0,520.0,490.0,530.0,550.0,600.0,1800.0,1400.0,950.0,850.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,1300.0,780.0,720.0,750.0,900.0,720.0,800.0,850.0,1500.0,900.0,750.0,720.0,1500.0,700.0,620.0,650.0,650.0,700.0,750.0,700.0,720.0,680.0,700.0,1050.0,740.0,650.0,620.0,700.0,1700.0,1000.0,800.0,780.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,800.0,750.0,800.0,780.0,750.0,780.0,850.0,900.0,1700.0,1100.0,900.0,850.0,880.0,900.0,950.0,1500.0,1150.0,950.0,900.0,920.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,980.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1300.0,5500.0,3500.0,2100.0,1700.0,1400.0,2000.0,3800.0,2600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1500.0,2200.0,1600.0,1400.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[350.0,340.0,360.0,350.0,380.0,340.0,330.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,340.0,380.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,420.0,600.0,500.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,380.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,400.0,1800.0,1100.0,900.0,600.0,500.0,450.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,380.0,380.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,380.0,380.0,390.0,500.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,380.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,420.0,450.0,400.0,390.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,410.0,430.0,900.0,700.0,500.0,480.0,450.0,430.0,420.0,420.0,430.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,430.0,450.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,430.0,420.0,700.0,550.0,2600.0,1500.0,1000.0,700.0,600.0,550.0,1100.0,800.0,600.0,550.0,500.0,480.0,470.0,480.0,520.0,500.0,480.0]}},{"title":"Sex position","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Sex position\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[174915,160951,180629,179813,199289,184901,183591,190124,271555,182063,176385,193742,185437,222435,237873,219017,234584,215883,212800,197161,189156,200450,196558,199488,202590,179594,188711,176668,183042,182646,187763,196515,171279,169392,169507,169320,174899,151265,170814,167790,167837,164998,175933,184712,177184,194461,174739,165365,171632,153109,201189,210313,196193,169633,174761,161712,155987,168166,175282,175226,185886,166076,209390,245881,291789,280602,277602,262248,238568,256615,220561,208739,225869,201493,228279,244225,269793,245429,245000,246712,240530,263769,263013,284428,288044,254071,309328,296474,282138,284392,265859,226799,237588,261189,271322,295968,331764,278391,295340,318563,315090,323011,334278,336399,348106,389693,375635,414309,445294,392051,286445,259270,258678,228035,226337,232123,227327,254449,247008,263837],"flat_reference_value":16741.256758465202,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[159000.0,154000.0,163000.0,158000.0,162000.0,155000.0,152000.0,157000.0,160000.0,166000.0,163000.0,168000.0,170000.0,158000.0,173000.0,166000.0,170000.0,163000.0,160000.0,165000.0,168000.0,175000.0,171000.0,176000.0,178000.0,165000.0,181000.0,174000.0,179000.0,171000.0,168000.0,172000.0,175000.0,182000.0,178000.0,183000.0,185000.0,172000.0,188000.0,181000.0,185000.0,177000.0,174000.0,179000.0,182000.0,189000.0,185000.0,190000.0,192000.0,181000.0,211000.0,229000.0,224000.0,211000.0,205000.0,204000.0,199000.0,207000.0,202000.0,210000.0,212000.0,195000.0,210000.0,201000.0,204000.0,195000.0,190000.0,194000.0,195000.0,201000.0,195000.0,200000.0,201000.0,185000.0,198000.0,190000.0,193000.0,185000.0,181000.0,185000.0,186000.0,191000.0,186000.0,190000.0,190000.0,174000.0,187000.0,178000.0,182000.0,174000.0,171000.0,174000.0,175000.0,180000.0,175000.0,179000.0,179000.0,166000.0,176000.0,168000.0,171000.0,164000.0,162000.0,165000.0,164000.0,170000.0,165000.0,168000.0,168000.0,153000.0,165000.0,158000.0,161000.0,154000.0,152000.0,154000.0,153000.0,158000.0,153000.0,156000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[532000.0,488000.0,518000.0,496000.0,515000.0,502000.0,534000.0,538000.0,498000.0,516000.0,499000.0,528000.0,548000.0,492000.0,536000.0,514000.0,532000.0,519000.0,552000.0,556000.0,518000.0,535000.0,516000.0,546000.0,565000.0,508000.0,554000.0,531000.0,550000.0,538000.0,572000.0,578000.0,542000.0,568000.0,562000.0,590000.0,604000.0,542000.0,588000.0,562000.0,580000.0,566000.0,596000.0,599000.0,556000.0,572000.0,550000.0,578000.0,588000.0,546000.0,615000.0,658000.0,642000.0,592000.0,602000.0,598000.0,554000.0,566000.0,544000.0,568000.0,574000.0,512000.0,552000.0,526000.0,540000.0,520000.0,544000.0,542000.0,502000.0,514000.0,492000.0,512000.0,518000.0,462000.0,496000.0,472000.0,484000.0,466000.0,488000.0,485000.0,448000.0,458000.0,438000.0,456000.0,464000.0,414000.0,444000.0,422000.0,432000.0,415000.0,434000.0,430000.0,398000.0,408000.0,390000.0,406000.0,412000.0,378000.0,398000.0,379000.0,388000.0,374000.0,392000.0,390000.0,362000.0,372000.0,356000.0,371000.0,378000.0,338000.0,366000.0,350000.0,360000.0,348000.0,365000.0,364000.0,338000.0,348000.0,334000.0,349000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[212400.0,218900.0,204500.0,196200.0,191800.0,184500.0,195100.0,192300.0,188700.0,194200.0,189600.0,198300.0,215200.0,221800.0,208400.0,199100.0,194600.0,189200.0,197800.0,195400.0,191200.0,196800.0,193500.0,202100.0,218700.0,224300.0,211500.0,202400.0,197100.0,188600.0,196400.0,194100.0,189800.0,195200.0,191400.0,200800.0,214600.0,219800.0,206200.0,197500.0,191300.0,183400.0,192100.0,189700.0,185200.0,191000.0,187600.0,196500.0,208300.0,216700.0,242500.0,268200.0,251400.0,219800.0,214300.0,208900.0,201200.0,206500.0,203100.0,211400.0,215800.0,222100.0,205400.0,194200.0,188700.0,179500.0,186300.0,183100.0,178400.0,184200.0,180600.0,189500.0,198200.0,204100.0,189600.0,179200.0,173500.0,166400.0,172800.0,169500.0,164800.0,170200.0,166700.0,174300.0,183500.0,188900.0,174200.0,165800.0,160400.0,153100.0,159200.0,156300.0,151700.0,157400.0,153800.0,161200.0,169800.0,175400.0,161500.0,152800.0,147600.0,141200.0,146500.0,143800.0,139400.0,144700.0,141300.0,148200.0,154600.0,159200.0,147500.0,139800.0,135200.0,129400.0,134100.0,131600.0,127800.0,132400.0,129500.0,136100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[172000.0,158000.0,168000.0,163000.0,162000.0,155000.0,157000.0,156000.0,150000.0,155000.0,150000.0,152000.0,154000.0,137000.0,146000.0,142000.0,140000.0,134000.0,136000.0,135000.0,130000.0,134000.0,130000.0,132000.0,133000.0,117000.0,125000.0,121000.0,120000.0,114000.0,116000.0,115000.0,111000.0,114000.0,110000.0,112000.0,114000.0,102000.0,108000.0,105000.0,104000.0,99000.0,101000.0,100000.0,97000.0,99000.0,96000.0,98000.0,101000.0,92000.0,108000.0,118000.0,110000.0,100000.0,98000.0,96000.0,92000.0,93000.0,90000.0,91000.0,93000.0,83000.0,88000.0,85000.0,84000.0,80000.0,81000.0,80000.0,77000.0,79000.0,77000.0,78000.0,80000.0,72000.0,77000.0,75000.0,74000.0,71000.0,72000.0,71000.0,69000.0,70000.0,68000.0,69000.0,72000.0,65000.0,70000.0,68000.0,67000.0,64000.0,65000.0,64000.0,62000.0,63000.0,61000.0,62000.0,65000.0,59000.0,63000.0,61000.0,60000.0,58000.0,59000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,55000.0,56000.0,58000.0,52000.0,56000.0,54000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[460000.0,430000.0,440000.0,425000.0,430000.0,420000.0,435000.0,430000.0,405000.0,400000.0,385000.0,395000.0,410000.0,370000.0,385000.0,370000.0,370000.0,360000.0,370000.0,360000.0,340000.0,335000.0,320000.0,330000.0,340000.0,300000.0,315000.0,300000.0,300000.0,295000.0,300000.0,295000.0,280000.0,275000.0,265000.0,270000.0,280000.0,250000.0,262000.0,252000.0,255000.0,250000.0,255000.0,250000.0,238000.0,236000.0,228000.0,235000.0,245000.0,228000.0,255000.0,285000.0,280000.0,260000.0,255000.0,250000.0,235000.0,232000.0,226000.0,232000.0,240000.0,215000.0,228000.0,220000.0,222000.0,215000.0,218000.0,212000.0,200000.0,198000.0,190000.0,195000.0,200000.0,178000.0,188000.0,180000.0,180000.0,175000.0,178000.0,175000.0,166000.0,165000.0,160000.0,164000.0,170000.0,152000.0,162000.0,156000.0,158000.0,154000.0,157000.0,155000.0,147000.0,146000.0,141000.0,145000.0,150000.0,138000.0,142000.0,137000.0,138000.0,134000.0,137000.0,135000.0,128000.0,127000.0,123000.0,126000.0,130000.0,116000.0,123000.0,119000.0,120000.0,117000.0,119000.0,118000.0,112000.0,111000.0,108000.0,110000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[472400.0,588200.0,476100.0,481500.0,487300.0,468200.0,457600.0,462400.0,479100.0,486800.0,478300.0,503500.0,481200.0,604700.0,492300.0,497600.0,503100.0,484500.0,471800.0,477200.0,493400.0,506700.0,493000.0,521400.0,491300.0,619500.0,502100.0,511400.0,516800.0,493200.0,482600.0,487100.0,503500.0,515900.0,504200.0,532300.0,503600.0,643800.0,517200.0,526500.0,531100.0,508400.0,497300.0,502700.0,521500.0,531800.0,517400.0,546900.0,512300.0,656400.0,588700.0,597200.0,576500.0,543100.0,527600.0,533400.0,551200.0,556800.0,542500.0,571300.0,546100.0,671500.0,541300.0,532700.0,521200.0,510600.0,500300.0,506400.0,512800.0,505200.0,494700.0,516300.0,499500.0,617800.0,484200.0,473600.0,462100.0,451400.0,441800.0,447300.0,453700.0,446200.0,434500.0,456900.0,445300.0,557400.0,432100.0,421600.0,411200.0,400500.0,390800.0,396300.0,402700.0,394100.0,383400.0,405600.0,403200.0,517600.0,391400.0,380800.0,370300.0,359500.0,349100.0,355600.0,361200.0,353700.0,342500.0,364800.0,361400.0,465300.0,348600.0,337200.0,331500.0,320800.0,315200.0,320600.0,326100.0,318400.0,308700.0,327300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[718452.0,823117.0,758904.0,731266.0,709381.0,742598.0,751023.0,762445.0,728912.0,711367.0,698204.0,751839.0,749832.0,918475.0,801263.0,769548.0,751902.0,781436.0,792117.0,799864.0,771302.0,749655.0,739128.0,791473.0,781294.0,951682.0,821547.0,789321.0,771084.0,801956.0,812338.0,819712.0,791045.0,769823.0,760419.0,811256.0,1018423.0,951208.0,839764.0,811395.0,789672.0,821489.0,832054.0,841327.0,810918.0,789544.0,781263.0,832691.0,1048735.0,982416.0,1102348.0,1247962.0,1148531.0,1051274.0,1001839.0,981652.0,921478.0,899635.0,890214.0,941873.0,921556.0,981342.0,901273.0,879864.0,861192.0,881457.0,891023.0,901688.0,1019542.0,901375.0,869418.0,911206.0,861342.0,941758.0,861924.0,831467.0,811283.0,841596.0,861124.0,871349.0,839672.0,821435.0,809862.0,861978.0,839541.0,911864.0,841273.0,811592.0,791348.0,821675.0,841092.0,851437.0,921856.0,801423.0,791068.0,841519.0,811274.0,881593.0,811862.0,781345.0,761928.0,791462.0,811083.0,821754.0,791326.0,771189.0,761452.0,811678.0,791342.0,861475.0,791863.0,761294.0,741582.0,771346.0,791128.0,801963.0,771457.0,751283.0,741069.0,791845.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[912000.0,963000.0,877000.0,834000.0,826000.0,851000.0,886000.0,877000.0,808000.0,826000.0,800000.0,903000.0,869000.0,918000.0,836000.0,795000.0,787000.0,812000.0,845000.0,836000.0,771000.0,787000.0,763000.0,861000.0,848000.0,968000.0,816000.0,776000.0,768000.0,792000.0,824000.0,816000.0,752000.0,768000.0,744000.0,840000.0,880000.0,930000.0,847000.0,805000.0,797000.0,822000.0,855000.0,847000.0,780000.0,797000.0,772000.0,872000.0,1018000.0,1075000.0,1077000.0,1257000.0,1152000.0,1093000.0,1068000.0,1028000.0,902000.0,922000.0,893000.0,1008000.0,986000.0,1042000.0,949000.0,902000.0,893000.0,1105000.0,1392000.0,1093000.0,874000.0,893000.0,865000.0,977000.0,901000.0,952000.0,867000.0,825000.0,816000.0,842000.0,876000.0,867000.0,799000.0,816000.0,791000.0,893000.0,827000.0,874000.0,859000.0,757000.0,749000.0,772000.0,803000.0,796000.0,733000.0,749000.0,725000.0,819000.0,763000.0,806000.0,734000.0,698000.0,691000.0,713000.0,742000.0,734000.0,677000.0,691000.0,670000.0,756000.0,689000.0,728000.0,663000.0,631000.0,624000.0,644000.0,670000.0,663000.0,611000.0,624000.0,605000.0,683000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[259000.0,242000.0,237000.0,223000.0,235000.0,247000.0,259000.0,244000.0,228000.0,240000.0,221000.0,242000.0,268000.0,260000.0,243000.0,240000.0,241000.0,260000.0,267000.0,252000.0,242000.0,240000.0,237000.0,255000.0,281000.0,262000.0,260000.0,245000.0,255000.0,263000.0,281000.0,260000.0,253000.0,252000.0,250000.0,260000.0,289000.0,281000.0,262000.0,260000.0,257000.0,276000.0,290000.0,273000.0,265000.0,265000.0,257000.0,267000.0,330000.0,315000.0,330000.0,349000.0,342000.0,334000.0,337000.0,321000.0,300000.0,303000.0,294000.0,315000.0,329000.0,299000.0,293000.0,275000.0,290000.0,305000.0,319000.0,299000.0,287000.0,287000.0,284000.0,296000.0,330000.0,315000.0,297000.0,294000.0,294000.0,315000.0,334000.0,306000.0,297000.0,300000.0,291000.0,312000.0,345000.0,319000.0,313000.0,295000.0,313000.0,322000.0,342000.0,319000.0,310000.0,307000.0,301000.0,316000.0,327000.0,321000.0,297000.0,294000.0,291000.0,312000.0,327000.0,309000.0,297000.0,300000.0,294000.0,303000.0,319000.0,302000.0,293000.0,278000.0,290000.0,296000.0,316000.0,302000.0,287000.0,287000.0,281000.0,296000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[60000.0,65700.0,59300.0,55900.0,57500.0,54200.0,51400.0,54700.0,57500.0,59900.0,57600.0,51900.0,62300.0,82700.0,62400.0,59400.0,60000.0,56400.0,55200.0,58100.0,60600.0,62400.0,61800.0,54100.0,68100.0,85400.0,63600.0,63600.0,61100.0,61700.0,57400.0,59800.0,65600.0,64300.0,62400.0,57400.0,65000.0,70800.0,65200.0,60800.0,61400.0,57700.0,58300.0,57700.0,63800.0,62600.0,63200.0,57100.0,70000.0,77200.0,77900.0,78100.0,74500.0,75000.0,69300.0,68700.0,73800.0,73800.0,72400.0,68000.0,71400.0,78300.0,68600.0,68700.0,65900.0,66600.0,61300.0,64500.0,70800.0,69300.0,68700.0,61900.0,66400.0,73000.0,66600.0,63400.0,64000.0,60800.0,58300.0,61400.0,64600.0,66600.0,62700.0,58900.0,63000.0,69200.0,63000.0,58800.0,59400.0,56400.0,55200.0,57000.0,62400.0,61200.0,60600.0,54100.0,59100.0,64600.0,59200.0,56500.0,54800.0,54300.0,52200.0,54300.0,57500.0,59700.0,56500.0,52200.0,55500.0,60600.0,55000.0,52500.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,50500.0,54500.0,54000.0,53500.0,48600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2320000.0,2814000.0,2189000.0,2124000.0,2102000.0,2124000.0,2189000.0,2315000.0,2212000.0,2189000.0,2144000.0,2430000.0,2217000.0,3295000.0,2292000.0,2110000.0,2008000.0,2030000.0,2092000.0,2154000.0,2113000.0,2092000.0,2050000.0,2322000.0,2083000.0,2986000.0,2116000.0,1907000.0,1887000.0,1907000.0,1966000.0,2024000.0,1990000.0,1966000.0,1923000.0,2182000.0,1980000.0,2316000.0,1868000.0,1812000.0,1793000.0,1812000.0,1868000.0,1924000.0,1887000.0,1868000.0,1830000.0,2074000.0,2041000.0,2388000.0,2427000.0,3168000.0,2748000.0,2318000.0,2177000.0,2134000.0,2046000.0,2007000.0,1947000.0,2238000.0,2439000.0,2797000.0,2242000.0,2156000.0,2115000.0,2096000.0,2162000.0,2224000.0,2183000.0,2162000.0,2114000.0,2398000.0,1907000.0,2231000.0,1800000.0,1746000.0,1728000.0,1746000.0,1800000.0,1854000.0,1819000.0,1800000.0,1763000.0,1998000.0,1608000.0,1881000.0,1518000.0,1471000.0,1457000.0,1471000.0,1518000.0,1563000.0,1533000.0,1518000.0,1487000.0,1685000.0,1371000.0,1604000.0,1294000.0,1256000.0,1243000.0,1256000.0,1294000.0,1373000.0,1310000.0,1294000.0,1267000.0,1436000.0,1165000.0,1363000.0,1100000.0,1067000.0,1056000.0,1067000.0,1100000.0,1131000.0,1112000.0,1100000.0,1078000.0,1220000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[130000.0,110000.0,120000.0,118000.0,125000.0,127000.0,134000.0,130000.0,120000.0,124000.0,122000.0,135000.0,147000.0,124000.0,134000.0,132000.0,140000.0,142000.0,149000.0,145000.0,134000.0,139000.0,136000.0,149000.0,167000.0,141000.0,151000.0,149000.0,157000.0,159000.0,166000.0,162000.0,150000.0,155000.0,152000.0,167000.0,188000.0,158000.0,171000.0,168000.0,177000.0,179000.0,187000.0,182000.0,170000.0,175000.0,171000.0,190000.0,204000.0,180000.0,225000.0,345000.0,415000.0,390000.0,375000.0,365000.0,335000.0,325000.0,360000.0,445000.0,410000.0,275000.0,235000.0,210000.0,205000.0,210000.0,225000.0,230000.0,215000.0,215000.0,235000.0,275000.0,280000.0,222000.0,205000.0,195000.0,200000.0,210000.0,222000.0,225000.0,210000.0,205000.0,225000.0,255000.0,260000.0,205000.0,190000.0,183000.0,188000.0,200000.0,212000.0,216000.0,200000.0,195000.0,215000.0,245000.0,245000.0,192000.0,180000.0,175000.0,180000.0,188000.0,200000.0,204000.0,188000.0,184000.0,205000.0,232000.0,238000.0,188000.0,176000.0,172000.0,178000.0,188000.0,200000.0,204000.0,188000.0,184000.0,205000.0,232000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[380000.0,350000.0,360000.0,350000.0,350000.0,340000.0,350000.0,350000.0,350000.0,360000.0,350000.0,370000.0,390000.0,350000.0,360000.0,350000.0,350000.0,340000.0,350000.0,350000.0,350000.0,360000.0,350000.0,370000.0,390000.0,350000.0,360000.0,350000.0,350000.0,340000.0,340000.0,340000.0,340000.0,350000.0,340000.0,360000.0,380000.0,340000.0,350000.0,340000.0,340000.0,330000.0,330000.0,330000.0,330000.0,340000.0,330000.0,350000.0,370000.0,340000.0,370000.0,400000.0,380000.0,350000.0,340000.0,340000.0,330000.0,330000.0,320000.0,340000.0,360000.0,320000.0,330000.0,320000.0,310000.0,300000.0,300000.0,300000.0,300000.0,300000.0,290000.0,310000.0,330000.0,290000.0,300000.0,290000.0,280000.0,270000.0,270000.0,270000.0,270000.0,270000.0,260000.0,280000.0,300000.0,260000.0,270000.0,260000.0,250000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,240000.0,230000.0,250000.0,270000.0,235000.0,240000.0,230000.0,225000.0,215000.0,215000.0,215000.0,215000.0,215000.0,210000.0,225000.0,240000.0,210000.0,215000.0,205000.0,200000.0,190000.0,190000.0,190000.0,190000.0,190000.0,185000.0,200000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[206000.0,290000.0,218000.0,242000.0,266000.0,278000.0,230000.0,206000.0,218000.0,267000.0,206000.0,254000.0,230000.0,340000.0,232000.0,258000.0,297000.0,311000.0,245000.0,219000.0,232000.0,270000.0,230000.0,270000.0,232000.0,359000.0,246000.0,286000.0,300000.0,345000.0,259000.0,232000.0,246000.0,309000.0,232000.0,309000.0,249000.0,393000.0,264000.0,293000.0,338000.0,370000.0,278000.0,249000.0,277000.0,338000.0,249000.0,332000.0,307000.0,439000.0,375000.0,450000.0,476000.0,459000.0,349000.0,284000.0,315000.0,385000.0,306000.0,402000.0,346000.0,475000.0,319000.0,354000.0,408000.0,406000.0,336000.0,325000.0,319000.0,408000.0,301000.0,408000.0,352000.0,543000.0,355000.0,414000.0,476000.0,498000.0,374000.0,369000.0,383000.0,475000.0,335000.0,463000.0,399000.0,614000.0,411000.0,434000.0,535000.0,574000.0,434000.0,414000.0,422000.0,547000.0,389000.0,511000.0,435000.0,668000.0,440000.0,488000.0,587000.0,630000.0,477000.0,443000.0,452000.0,600000.0,416000.0,561000.0,472000.0,718000.0,482000.0,520000.0,653000.0,694000.0,517000.0,485000.0,491000.0,649000.0,455000.0,612000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[26300.0,25500.0,24600.0,24100.0,23900.0,23400.0,22900.0,23400.0,23900.0,24400.0,23900.0,22900.0,25400.0,24800.0,24000.0,23400.0,23200.0,22800.0,22200.0,22600.0,23200.0,23700.0,23300.0,22200.0,24200.0,23400.0,22700.0,22200.0,22000.0,21600.0,21100.0,21600.0,22100.0,22500.0,22200.0,21200.0,22700.0,22100.0,21400.0,21000.0,20800.0,20400.0,19900.0,20400.0,20800.0,21200.0,20900.0,19900.0,23500.0,23000.0,22600.0,23500.0,24000.0,22800.0,22000.0,22100.0,21800.0,22100.0,21500.0,20500.0,22200.0,21600.0,20900.0,20500.0,20300.0,19900.0,19400.0,19800.0,20300.0,20700.0,20300.0,19400.0,20900.0,20300.0,19700.0,19300.0,19100.0,18700.0,18300.0,18700.0,19100.0,19500.0,19100.0,18300.0,19800.0,19200.0,18700.0,18300.0,18100.0,17700.0,17300.0,17700.0,18100.0,18500.0,18100.0,17300.0,18900.0,18400.0,17900.0,17500.0,17300.0,17000.0,16600.0,17000.0,17300.0,17700.0,17400.0,16600.0,18200.0,17700.0,17200.0,16800.0,16600.0,16300.0,15900.0,16300.0,16700.0,17000.0,16700.0,15900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[44100.0,44100.0,44100.0,42000.0,42000.0,39900.0,37800.0,39900.0,44100.0,44100.0,42000.0,37800.0,43050.0,43050.0,43050.0,41000.0,41000.0,38950.0,36900.0,38950.0,43050.0,43050.0,41000.0,36900.0,40950.0,40950.0,40950.0,39000.0,39000.0,37050.0,35100.0,37050.0,40950.0,40950.0,39000.0,35100.0,38850.0,38850.0,38850.0,37000.0,37000.0,35150.0,33300.0,35150.0,38850.0,38850.0,37000.0,33300.0,45150.0,45150.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,42000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,39000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,36000.0,39900.0,39900.0,39900.0,38000.0,38000.0,36100.0,34200.0,36100.0,39900.0,39900.0,38000.0,34200.0,38850.0,38850.0,38850.0,37000.0,37000.0,35150.0,33300.0,35150.0,38850.0,38850.0,37000.0,33300.0,37800.0,37800.0,37800.0,36000.0,36000.0,34200.0,32400.0,34200.0,37800.0,37800.0,36000.0,32400.0,36750.0,36750.0,36750.0,35000.0,35000.0,33250.0,31500.0,33250.0,36750.0,36750.0,35000.0,31500.0]}},{"title":"Only Lovers Left Alive","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Only Lovers Left Alive\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[32830,28564,32636,31648,35521,47051,31140,29806,25126,25664,27357,25499,32808,25492,26379,22189,19171,20189,20128,17474,17588,20995,23641,19470,23090,17809,21821,22091,27546,20301,20738,17895,15757,17558,16622,14923,16454,14126,18063,25207,31247,30734,21676,18713,18915,22338,19691,17978,19501,19622,21500,28621,24816,22818,20251,20375,18366,26422,24731,19163,24522,24741,23130,22020,22546,30700,52979,40362,39710,28880,19446,15385,17546,15806,19719,20000,20757,17185,18271,23577,23170,21777,19197,14487,17416,17268,20032,15815,15318,13978,18776,31840,23460,28618,25175,18953,30335,26671,20710,18408,17298,18383,18623,17071,17807,28749,24055,22785,28084,20418,17342,16419,19166,17033,25490,22322,23536,25591,19040,17485],"flat_reference_value":16940.23741309273,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,34000.0,42000.0,35000.0,29000.0,38000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,35000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,33000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,34000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,29000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,36000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,34000.0,36000.0,27000.0,25000.0,35000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,33000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,36000.0,26000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,33000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,32000.0,22000.0,21000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[36500.0,32800.0,33400.0,31200.0,32900.0,54200.0,41500.0,35600.0,32400.0,43800.0,33900.0,34200.0,44600.0,35100.0,33800.0,30900.0,30200.0,29400.0,31000.0,30500.0,29800.0,42500.0,32600.0,31800.0,33400.0,29200.0,30600.0,29500.0,31200.0,28400.0,29700.0,29100.0,28800.0,41200.0,30400.0,30900.0,32100.0,28300.0,29600.0,28900.0,43500.0,39800.0,33200.0,30400.0,29500.0,42900.0,31200.0,32800.0,33900.0,30500.0,36800.0,44200.0,41600.0,35400.0,34200.0,33500.0,32800.0,48500.0,34100.0,33600.0,34800.0,30200.0,30800.0,29400.0,29900.0,35600.0,36900.0,31200.0,29500.0,43200.0,29800.0,29400.0,30900.0,26800.0,27400.0,26500.0,26900.0,25800.0,27200.0,26600.0,26400.0,39400.0,27100.0,26800.0,28200.0,24500.0,25400.0,24800.0,25100.0,24200.0,25600.0,24900.0,25200.0,38800.0,27600.0,25900.0,26800.0,23600.0,24100.0,22900.0,23200.0,22500.0,23400.0,23100.0,23800.0,35600.0,24400.0,28500.0,29200.0,22800.0,22400.0,21600.0,22100.0,21400.0,22200.0,22900.0,24600.0,34800.0,23900.0,25400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,46000.0,35000.0,32000.0,31000.0,42000.0,32000.0,31000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,36000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,33000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,32000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,27000.0,34000.0,31000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,32000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,27000.0,26000.0,22000.0,20000.0,30000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,27000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,27000.0,21000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,25000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,24000.0,16000.0,16000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,24000.0,20000.0,18000.0,21000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,15500.0,16000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,13500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,11500.0,13500.0,12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,12500.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,11500.0,11000.0,9500.0,9000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,10500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,7800.0,7800.0,7800.0,7800.0,9500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7800.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,6800.0,6800.0,6800.0,8500.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,6500.0,6700.0,6500.0,6500.0,6300.0,6300.0,6500.0,7500.0,8500.0,7000.0,7200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[50000.0,47000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,78000.0,55000.0,47000.0,43000.0,45000.0,42000.0,43000.0,56000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,33000.0,38000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,31000.0,37000.0,36000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,37000.0,36000.0,30000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,25000.0,23000.0,27000.0,30000.0,25000.0,25000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9500.0,13000.0,12000.0,11500.0,9000.0,12000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8300.0,12500.0,11000.0,8200.0,11000.0,9000.0,10000.0,8200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,8400.0,12600.0,10800.0,8400.0,8100.0,7800.0,7600.0,9600.0,8100.0,7500.0,7300.0,7400.0,8300.0,12700.0,9600.0,7900.0,7700.0,7500.0,7400.0,9200.0,9800.0,11200.0,8400.0,7800.0,8500.0,12900.0,8300.0,8000.0,7900.0,7700.0,8600.0,9000.0,8300.0,7900.0,7700.0,7800.0,8500.0,13100.0,8400.0,8200.0,8100.0,7900.0,8000.0,7900.0,8300.0,10600.0,9900.0,8400.0,8700.0,13600.0,8500.0,8300.0,8100.0,8000.0,8200.0,8100.0,8300.0,8400.0,8300.0,9200.0,9500.0,13900.0,8700.0,8400.0,8500.0,8300.0,8400.0,8500.0,8900.0,8600.0,8500.0,8700.0,9100.0,14500.0,9700.0,8700.0,8900.0,8600.0,8700.0,8900.0,8800.0,8700.0,8600.0,8900.0,9300.0,14600.0,9100.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,9000.0,10800.0,10400.0,9400.0,9300.0,9700.0,11800.0,15700.0,10200.0,9400.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[15400.0,14100.0,15800.0,15500.0,14900.0,14400.0,13600.0,14200.0,17800.0,23500.0,17200.0,13800.0,14800.0,13600.0,15100.0,14800.0,14300.0,13900.0,13200.0,13800.0,16900.0,22800.0,21000.0,13400.0,14200.0,13100.0,14500.0,14200.0,13700.0,13200.0,12600.0,13200.0,16000.0,21800.0,15900.0,12800.0,13600.0,12600.0,14000.0,13600.0,13100.0,15100.0,12200.0,12700.0,15400.0,21000.0,15300.0,12300.0,13000.0,12100.0,15200.0,15600.0,14200.0,12100.0,11600.0,12100.0,14600.0,20200.0,14600.0,12200.0,12400.0,11600.0,12800.0,12500.0,12100.0,17500.0,15600.0,11600.0,14000.0,19200.0,13900.0,11500.0,11800.0,11000.0,12200.0,11900.0,11500.0,11100.0,10600.0,11000.0,13300.0,18200.0,13200.0,10800.0,11200.0,10400.0,11600.0,11300.0,10900.0,10500.0,10000.0,10400.0,12700.0,17400.0,12600.0,10300.0,10700.0,9900.0,11000.0,10800.0,10400.0,10000.0,9500.0,9900.0,12100.0,16600.0,12000.0,9800.0,10200.0,9400.0,10500.0,10300.0,9900.0,9500.0,9100.0,11500.0,11600.0,15900.0,11400.0,9300.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6200.0,6800.0,5800.0,5600.0,6000.0,12500.0,8500.0,6200.0,5800.0,8000.0,6000.0,6500.0,10500.0,6800.0,6000.0,5800.0,6200.0,6400.0,7000.0,6200.0,5800.0,8200.0,6800.0,6800.0,6000.0,6500.0,6200.0,8000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6000.0,5800.0,5800.0,8000.0,6000.0,6400.0,6000.0,7000.0,6000.0,5800.0,6200.0,8500.0,7200.0,6000.0,5800.0,8200.0,6200.0,6600.0,6200.0,6800.0,7500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6200.0,8500.0,6800.0,7200.0,6800.0,7200.0,6800.0,7000.0,7200.0,11500.0,8500.0,7000.0,6800.0,9000.0,7000.0,7400.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7200.0,9500.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,7000.0,9500.0,7200.0,7800.0,7200.0,8000.0,7200.0,7000.0,7400.0,7200.0,7000.0,7200.0,7500.0,12500.0,8500.0,7800.0,7400.0,8200.0,7400.0,7200.0,7200.0,7200.0,7000.0,7200.0,8500.0,9500.0,7500.0,7800.0,7400.0,8400.0,7200.0,7200.0,7200.0,7400.0,7200.0,7500.0,11000.0,10500.0,8000.0,8200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[8000.0,8500.0,7800.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,7600.0,7500.0,8000.0,9500.0,8200.0,8500.0,7400.0,8200.0,10500.0,7600.0,7800.0,7300.0,7400.0,7200.0,7600.0,9000.0,12500.0,8500.0,6800.0,7400.0,6800.0,10500.0,9500.0,6900.0,6700.0,6500.0,6800.0,8200.0,7000.0,7200.0,6200.0,6700.0,6200.0,9800.0,8500.0,6200.0,6000.0,5900.0,6100.0,7400.0,6300.0,6600.0,6200.0,6600.0,7500.0,9000.0,8500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,8000.0,6900.0,7200.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6400.0,11500.0,9500.0,6800.0,6600.0,7800.0,7000.0,7200.0,5500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5400.0,5800.0,5500.0,7000.0,5600.0,5500.0,6800.0,5700.0,5900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5000.0,4900.0,7200.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,8200.0,7000.0,5400.0,4500.0,4900.0,4500.0,6500.0,5200.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,5800.0,4700.0,4900.0,4200.0,4600.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,5200.0,4300.0,4500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[4100.0,4250.0,3980.0,4050.0,3900.0,3750.0,3650.0,3550.0,3850.0,4550.0,4950.0,3600.0,4400.0,6800.0,4600.0,3700.0,3550.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3450.0,4100.0,4600.0,3350.0,3350.0,3500.0,3400.0,4600.0,4300.0,3300.0,3150.0,3050.0,3250.0,3850.0,3600.0,3050.0,3100.0,3250.0,3150.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,2850.0,3050.0,3550.0,3300.0,2850.0,3000.0,3100.0,3800.0,3950.0,3700.0,3350.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3150.0,3250.0,3400.0,5800.0,6200.0,4700.0,3600.0,4200.0,3800.0,3300.0,3150.0,3250.0,3150.0,3300.0,4600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3050.0,3750.0,4100.0,3600.0,2950.0,2850.0,2950.0,2850.0,2950.0,3250.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2850.0,3950.0,3350.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2900.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2300.0,2500.0,3100.0,2850.0,2350.0,2350.0,2450.0,2350.0,2400.0,2650.0,3400.0,2800.0,2400.0,2500.0,2950.0,2750.0,2450.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3200.0,3150.0,3100.0,3050.0,3000.0,2950.0,2900.0,2880.0,2850.0,3000.0,3500.0,3200.0,2900.0,2850.0,3100.0,2750.0,2700.0,2650.0,2600.0,2550.0,2500.0,2480.0,2450.0,2400.0,2350.0,2320.0,2300.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2600.0,2500.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1820.0,1800.0,1780.0,1750.0,1700.0,1680.0,1660.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,1680.0,1650.0,1620.0,1600.0,1550.0,1520.0,1500.0,1480.0,1460.0,1450.0,2100.0,2300.0,1700.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1380.0,1350.0,1330.0,1300.0,1280.0,1250.0,1230.0,1200.0,1180.0,1150.0,1130.0,1100.0,1080.0,1060.0,1050.0,1250.0,1300.0,1120.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,920.0,900.0,880.0,860.0,840.0,820.0,950.0,880.0,820.0,780.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,710.0,700.0,690.0,680.0,670.0,660.0,650.0,640.0,630.0,625.0,620.0,615.0,610.0,600.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[17200.0,18600.0,18900.0,20500.0,19400.0,18200.0,17600.0,17300.0,18500.0,19400.0,20300.0,18900.0,17900.0,18400.0,19000.0,20300.0,19300.0,18600.0,18100.0,17800.0,18900.0,20100.0,31800.0,21300.0,17600.0,18100.0,18600.0,19800.0,18700.0,17900.0,17400.0,17200.0,18300.0,19100.0,19700.0,18200.0,17900.0,18700.0,19200.0,20300.0,25800.0,30500.0,22700.0,21600.0,22200.0,23000.0,24000.0,21800.0,21700.0,22500.0,23200.0,32500.0,39500.0,30000.0,27500.0,28000.0,26800.0,27700.0,28800.0,25900.0,25900.0,27000.0,27600.0,37500.0,29500.0,39500.0,42500.0,32500.0,30800.0,31800.0,33000.0,30500.0,29900.0,31200.0,32000.0,33800.0,40500.0,42000.0,45500.0,36000.0,39500.0,34500.0,36500.0,43000.0,34500.0,35800.0,40500.0,46000.0,42500.0,48500.0,53000.0,40500.0,39000.0,42000.0,43500.0,39500.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,48500.0,42500.0,40000.0,39500.0,46500.0,43500.0,44500.0,40500.0,44000.0,42000.0,43500.0,46000.0,47500.0,55000.0,45500.0,50500.0,52000.0,46500.0,48000.0,43500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1900.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1800.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4300.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4500.0,6200.0,4500.0,6700.0,5300.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,4200.0,3900.0,3400.0,3600.0,4100.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,4000.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3700.0,6900.0,5400.0,3800.0,3700.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3800.0,3500.0,3200.0,7800.0,11800.0,9300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,4500.0,3900.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,4100.0,14800.0,12400.0,8600.0,5300.0,4000.0,4100.0,4700.0,3800.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3500.0,3900.0,3600.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3900.0,3600.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,4600.0,4000.0,4000.0,3700.0,9800.0,7300.0,6200.0,3300.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3600.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3300.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2500.0,2200.0,2400.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2300.0,2250.0,2300.0,2800.0,2500.0,2600.0,2350.0,2100.0,2300.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0,2150.0,2200.0,2700.0,2350.0,2450.0,2250.0,2000.0,2200.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,2100.0,2050.0,2100.0,2550.0,2250.0,2350.0,2100.0,1900.0,2050.0,1950.0,1850.0,1800.0,1950.0,1900.0,2000.0,2400.0,2100.0,2200.0,2350.0,2200.0,2500.0,2900.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,3100.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2450.0,2600.0,2450.0,2300.0,2250.0,2400.0,2350.0,2450.0,2900.0,2550.0,2650.0,2400.0,2200.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2650.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2050.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1950.0,2050.0,2000.0,2150.0,2700.0,2300.0,2400.0,2350.0,2150.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,2250.0,2150.0,2300.0,2900.0,2450.0,2600.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,2100.0,2050.0,2150.0,2600.0,2250.0,2350.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[8550.0,8550.0,9000.0,9000.0,8820.0,8550.0,8280.0,8280.0,9000.0,11250.0,9450.0,9000.0,7700.0,7700.0,8100.0,8100.0,7940.0,7700.0,7450.0,7450.0,8100.0,10130.0,8510.0,8100.0,6940.0,6940.0,7300.0,7300.0,7150.0,6940.0,6720.0,6720.0,7300.0,9130.0,7670.0,7300.0,6270.0,6270.0,6600.0,6600.0,6470.0,6270.0,6070.0,6070.0,6600.0,8250.0,6930.0,6600.0,6180.0,6180.0,7480.0,7480.0,6370.0,6180.0,5980.0,5980.0,6500.0,8130.0,6830.0,6500.0,5320.0,5320.0,5600.0,5600.0,5490.0,5850.0,5150.0,5150.0,5600.0,7000.0,5880.0,5600.0,4560.0,4560.0,4800.0,4800.0,4700.0,4560.0,4420.0,4420.0,4800.0,6000.0,5040.0,4800.0,4090.0,4090.0,4300.0,4300.0,4210.0,4090.0,3960.0,3960.0,4300.0,5380.0,4520.0,4300.0,3800.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,3920.0,3800.0,3680.0,3680.0,4000.0,5000.0,4200.0,4000.0,3520.0,3520.0,3700.0,3700.0,3630.0,3520.0,3400.0,3400.0,3700.0,4630.0,3890.0,3700.0]}},{"title":"Battle of the Java Sea","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Battle of the Java Sea\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5909,8970,7593,6996,7086,5971,5939,5867,5761,5813,46077,10061,7825,14896,8992,7196,7623,6262,5764,6327,5013,5548,7182,6621,10456,11383,8723,6640,6767,6548,5821,7219,5893,6068,5885,8163,7329,10504,11493,6672,8905,6393,6683,8015,6121,7737,10878,7575,7452,11630,8823,8768,7805,6959,6751,7954,6536,5980,6310,6814,7683,14612,11354,9466,7947,7775,7677,6798,10564,10764,7300,11610,8002,10330,7992,5605,6611,5813,6066,6178,5325,5883,5294,6129,7138,9241,7793,6663,7429,6624,6879,6608,5912,5399,6064,6758,8503,11959,7526,6654,7091,7083,6177,6300,6170,6167,5950,6296,7798,9804,7686,6891,9418,7956,7224,7540,6512,6926,6669,6888],"flat_reference_value":17033.968264395167,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[8200.0,12300.0,9100.0,7900.0,7800.0,7500.0,7700.0,7600.0,7400.0,8000.0,31000.0,13000.0,9500.0,18000.0,10500.0,8500.0,8300.0,7900.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8200.0,9000.0,8400.0,8600.0,12600.0,9100.0,8000.0,8000.0,7600.0,7900.0,7800.0,7600.0,8000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8500.0,12400.0,9000.0,8000.0,8100.0,7700.0,8000.0,7900.0,7700.0,8100.0,8500.0,8300.0,8700.0,12800.0,10200.0,10000.0,9700.0,9100.0,9300.0,9000.0,8500.0,8700.0,9000.0,8800.0,9000.0,13000.0,9400.0,8500.0,8400.0,8000.0,8300.0,8200.0,8000.0,8400.0,8900.0,8600.0,9000.0,18000.0,11000.0,8500.0,8300.0,7900.0,8200.0,8100.0,7900.0,8300.0,8800.0,8500.0,8700.0,12600.0,9200.0,8200.0,8100.0,7700.0,8000.0,7900.0,7700.0,8100.0,8500.0,8200.0,8500.0,12200.0,9000.0,8000.0,7900.0,7500.0,7800.0,7700.0,7500.0,7900.0,8300.0,8000.0,8300.0,11800.0,8700.0,7700.0,7600.0,7200.0,7500.0,7400.0,7200.0,7600.0,8000.0,7700.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[19200.0,27500.0,21400.0,18100.0,18600.0,17400.0,18200.0,18900.0,17800.0,18500.0,84000.0,23800.0,20500.0,46500.0,24900.0,19100.0,19400.0,18000.0,18700.0,19300.0,18200.0,18900.0,19600.0,19000.0,20200.0,31200.0,22300.0,18600.0,18800.0,17500.0,18400.0,19100.0,17900.0,18600.0,19300.0,18800.0,20100.0,29400.0,21800.0,18500.0,18900.0,17800.0,18600.0,19500.0,18300.0,19400.0,19800.0,19200.0,20800.0,30500.0,23600.0,23900.0,24200.0,27800.0,25100.0,23400.0,21200.0,21600.0,22100.0,21500.0,22900.0,32400.0,24100.0,20900.0,21200.0,19600.0,20300.0,21100.0,19500.0,20100.0,20600.0,20000.0,21400.0,36800.0,23800.0,19400.0,19700.0,18300.0,19100.0,19800.0,18400.0,19000.0,19500.0,18900.0,20100.0,28600.0,21500.0,18200.0,18500.0,17200.0,18100.0,18700.0,17500.0,18000.0,18400.0,17900.0,19000.0,27200.0,20400.0,17100.0,17400.0,16200.0,16900.0,17500.0,16400.0,16800.0,17200.0,16700.0,17600.0,25400.0,19100.0,16000.0,16300.0,15200.0,15800.0,16400.0,15400.0,15900.0,16200.0,15700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[27400.0,35200.0,28600.0,26100.0,25800.0,24900.0,26300.0,25400.0,24800.0,26200.0,112500.0,41200.0,31400.0,48600.0,33100.0,27900.0,28500.0,26400.0,27100.0,28300.0,25900.0,26700.0,28100.0,26500.0,28200.0,37800.0,30500.0,26400.0,26100.0,25200.0,25900.0,24800.0,24100.0,25300.0,26200.0,25700.0,27400.0,36100.0,29800.0,25900.0,26300.0,24700.0,25400.0,24900.0,23800.0,25100.0,24600.0,24200.0,26100.0,35400.0,30200.0,33600.0,32100.0,28400.0,27900.0,26800.0,25300.0,26100.0,25800.0,25400.0,27200.0,35800.0,28900.0,26400.0,25900.0,24300.0,25100.0,24600.0,23800.0,24900.0,24500.0,24100.0,26300.0,44200.0,32800.0,26100.0,25400.0,23900.0,24800.0,24100.0,23200.0,24300.0,23900.0,23600.0,25800.0,34600.0,27900.0,24500.0,24100.0,22900.0,23700.0,23100.0,22400.0,23600.0,23300.0,22800.0,24900.0,33700.0,27100.0,23900.0,23500.0,22400.0,23200.0,22600.0,21900.0,23100.0,22700.0,22300.0,24200.0,32900.0,26500.0,23400.0,22900.0,21800.0,22500.0,22100.0,21400.0,22600.0,22200.0,21800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[23000.0,25500.0,25000.0,22000.0,21500.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20000.0,21000.0,68000.0,32000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,20500.0,20000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19500.0,21000.0,20500.0,18500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,19500.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,21000.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,19500.0,22000.0,20500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,18000.0,17500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15000.0,14500.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13000.0,14000.0,13500.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[20500.0,24000.0,21000.0,19500.0,20000.0,19000.0,19500.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,46000.0,23000.0,21500.0,28000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20500.0,19000.0,19500.0,19500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19500.0,20500.0,23500.0,20500.0,18500.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,19000.0,21500.0,19500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,20500.0,23000.0,23000.0,20500.0,20000.0,19500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,20000.0,21500.0,19500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,22500.0,19000.0,16500.0,16500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,18500.0,16500.0,15500.0,16000.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,17500.0,16000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14500.0,15000.0,17000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6800.0,11500.0,6900.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,6300.0,6300.0,6600.0,6900.0,32000.0,11000.0,13000.0,48000.0,15000.0,9500.0,8200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7500.0,7400.0,7300.0,7600.0,7400.0,7000.0,12000.0,6800.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5900.0,5900.0,5800.0,5900.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,10500.0,6200.0,5700.0,5500.0,5400.0,5500.0,5600.0,5400.0,5500.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,9500.0,6800.0,6200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5300.0,5300.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,5300.0,5100.0,9000.0,5600.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,16000.0,7500.0,5800.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,5000.0,4900.0,4900.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,9500.0,5300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,9000.0,5000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,9000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2643.0,5821.0,3420.0,2518.0,2445.0,2289.0,2391.0,2564.0,2347.0,2498.0,14872.0,19235.0,5120.0,9478.0,4823.0,3124.0,2956.0,2789.0,2894.0,3052.0,2821.0,2987.0,3120.0,2895.0,2754.0,6583.0,3654.0,2832.0,2715.0,2598.0,2689.0,2812.0,2624.0,2748.0,2861.0,2689.0,2687.0,5932.0,3498.0,2721.0,2614.0,2489.0,2578.0,2694.0,2512.0,2643.0,2719.0,2584.0,3024.0,6821.0,3984.0,3821.0,3412.0,3125.0,3189.0,3294.0,3087.0,3215.0,3358.0,3142.0,2987.0,6495.0,3824.0,3012.0,2898.0,2754.0,2863.0,2989.0,2812.0,2945.0,3032.0,2876.0,3324.0,11284.0,5236.0,3421.0,3215.0,3048.0,3156.0,3289.0,3074.0,3198.0,3321.0,3148.0,2894.0,6412.0,3768.0,2924.0,2815.0,2678.0,2754.0,2891.0,2689.0,2823.0,2914.0,2735.0,2789.0,6187.0,3624.0,2812.0,2698.0,2564.0,2651.0,2778.0,2593.0,2712.0,2834.0,2647.0,2698.0,5984.0,3512.0,2724.0,2611.0,2487.0,2569.0,2683.0,2504.0,2621.0,2718.0,2559.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[7200.0,9800.0,7100.0,6600.0,6400.0,6100.0,5900.0,6000.0,6400.0,6800.0,7000.0,7300.0,7600.0,17500.0,8200.0,7100.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,6800.0,7300.0,11200.0,7600.0,7100.0,10800.0,6900.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,5900.0,6100.0,6400.0,6700.0,7200.0,7400.0,7300.0,14200.0,7600.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,6900.0,7400.0,11800.0,7800.0,7600.0,11400.0,8400.0,8100.0,7600.0,7100.0,6900.0,7600.0,7200.0,7600.0,7800.0,8100.0,7900.0,11800.0,7800.0,7400.0,7200.0,6900.0,6800.0,7000.0,7400.0,7900.0,8200.0,11500.0,8600.0,26500.0,9800.0,10400.0,8600.0,8100.0,7800.0,8000.0,8400.0,8900.0,9100.0,9400.0,8300.0,10600.0,8100.0,7800.0,7600.0,7300.0,7200.0,7500.0,7900.0,8400.0,8600.0,8900.0,8800.0,11200.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,7700.0,7500.0,7800.0,8300.0,9400.0,9000.0,9300.0,9100.0,11600.0,8900.0,8500.0,8300.0,7900.0,7800.0,8100.0,8500.0,9000.0,9200.0,9600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2600.0,4200.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,18000.0,5200.0,3500.0,4300.0,2900.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,4500.0,2700.0,2600.0,3900.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,3600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2300.0,3500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,3700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2700.0,5200.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,3900.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2500.0,3800.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,3500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1080.0,1620.0,1240.0,1060.0,1010.0,970.0,950.0,930.0,1040.0,1070.0,2900.0,3600.0,2800.0,3150.0,4600.0,3200.0,2100.0,1500.0,1320.0,1260.0,1360.0,1310.0,1220.0,1160.0,1120.0,1720.0,1190.0,1040.0,1480.0,960.0,920.0,900.0,990.0,1010.0,970.0,930.0,940.0,1520.0,1080.0,950.0,910.0,870.0,850.0,830.0,920.0,930.0,1020.0,950.0,920.0,1480.0,1350.0,1220.0,1100.0,1000.0,960.0,930.0,1020.0,1000.0,1010.0,910.0,880.0,1410.0,1060.0,950.0,900.0,860.0,840.0,820.0,900.0,910.0,870.0,830.0,890.0,2150.0,1320.0,960.0,900.0,860.0,840.0,810.0,890.0,900.0,860.0,820.0,810.0,1360.0,1000.0,900.0,860.0,1180.0,950.0,780.0,860.0,870.0,1150.0,800.0,780.0,1310.0,960.0,860.0,1180.0,1240.0,800.0,770.0,840.0,850.0,810.0,770.0,790.0,1380.0,980.0,860.0,830.0,790.0,770.0,750.0,920.0,880.0,830.0,790.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[6180.0,8700.0,7580.0,5880.0,5760.0,5520.0,5400.0,5640.0,6120.0,6300.0,6480.0,6660.0,6590.0,14100.0,11000.0,6270.0,6140.0,5890.0,5760.0,6020.0,6530.0,6720.0,6910.0,7100.0,7110.0,10010.0,8710.0,6760.0,6620.0,6350.0,6210.0,6490.0,7040.0,7250.0,7450.0,7660.0,7520.0,10590.0,9220.0,7150.0,7010.0,6720.0,6570.0,6860.0,7450.0,7670.0,7880.0,8100.0,8240.0,14400.0,11720.0,7840.0,7680.0,7360.0,7200.0,7520.0,8160.0,8400.0,8640.0,11100.0,8650.0,12180.0,10610.0,8230.0,8060.0,7730.0,7560.0,7900.0,8570.0,8820.0,9070.0,9320.0,8030.0,18720.0,14180.0,7640.0,7490.0,7180.0,7020.0,7330.0,7960.0,8190.0,8420.0,8660.0,7420.0,10440.0,9090.0,7060.0,6910.0,6620.0,6480.0,6770.0,7340.0,7560.0,7780.0,7990.0,6900.0,9720.0,8460.0,6570.0,6430.0,6160.0,6030.0,6300.0,6830.0,7040.0,7240.0,7440.0,6390.0,10540.0,8770.0,6080.0,5950.0,5700.0,5580.0,5830.0,6320.0,6510.0,6700.0,6880.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[5841.0,9287.0,6269.0,5221.0,5116.0,4934.0,5312.0,5058.0,5372.0,5557.0,5864.0,6241.0,6398.0,58742.0,9684.0,5548.0,5386.0,5142.0,5517.0,5279.0,5568.0,5746.0,6097.0,6518.0,5817.0,9164.0,6198.0,5165.0,5044.0,4883.0,5268.0,5041.0,5289.0,5472.0,5777.0,6175.0,6033.0,9436.0,6398.0,5338.0,5187.0,5006.0,5314.0,5106.0,5367.0,5529.0,5861.0,6239.0,5562.0,8617.0,6628.0,5734.0,5552.0,4798.0,5187.0,4938.0,5203.0,5374.0,5683.0,6342.0,5198.0,7816.0,5526.0,4577.0,4484.0,4318.0,4672.0,4486.0,4706.0,4862.0,5149.0,5730.0,6358.0,96315.0,13842.0,5702.0,5451.0,5048.0,5468.0,5196.0,5478.0,5627.0,5937.0,6429.0,4826.0,7288.0,5082.0,4232.0,4141.0,3964.0,4298.0,4092.0,4318.0,4464.0,4738.0,5326.0,4648.0,6986.0,4858.0,4034.0,3948.0,3782.0,4104.0,3912.0,4128.0,4262.0,4536.0,5102.0,4547.0,6798.0,4746.0,3958.0,3876.0,3712.0,4022.0,3838.0,4054.0,4172.0,4448.0,4998.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1800.0,2100.0,2300.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2400.0,2500.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,2000.0,2100.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1900.0,2000.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1900.0,2000.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1700.0,1800.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1650.0,1750.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1550.0,1600.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1500.0,1550.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1450.0,1500.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1820.0,2910.0,2210.0,1610.0,1780.0,1920.0,2390.0,1730.0,2320.0,1900.0,1690.0,1560.0,1940.0,4230.0,2990.0,1770.0,1880.0,2060.0,2520.0,1830.0,2480.0,1980.0,1810.0,1690.0,2070.0,3480.0,2410.0,1740.0,1910.0,2090.0,2560.0,1870.0,2470.0,2020.0,1830.0,1710.0,2130.0,3310.0,2490.0,1810.0,1970.0,2120.0,2600.0,1910.0,2530.0,2060.0,1890.0,1780.0,2460.0,4820.0,3810.0,2890.0,2520.0,2560.0,2930.0,2390.0,3120.0,2690.0,2380.0,2210.0,2230.0,3940.0,2710.0,2010.0,2180.0,2310.0,2740.0,2140.0,2720.0,2330.0,2120.0,1980.0,2540.0,7010.0,4590.0,2420.0,2640.0,2730.0,3240.0,2510.0,3350.0,2680.0,2410.0,2270.0,2330.0,3980.0,2790.0,2110.0,2310.0,2430.0,2810.0,2230.0,2820.0,2440.0,2260.0,2100.0,2450.0,4170.0,2920.0,2160.0,2370.0,2480.0,2920.0,2280.0,2940.0,2460.0,2290.0,2130.0,2510.0,4480.0,3090.0,2220.0,2410.0,2560.0,3010.0,2350.0,3030.0,2550.0,2360.0,2200.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[980.0,2350.0,1420.0,1080.0,1010.0,960.0,930.0,940.0,980.0,1040.0,990.0,1060.0,1020.0,3400.0,1660.0,1150.0,1080.0,1010.0,970.0,990.0,1020.0,1090.0,1040.0,1100.0,1000.0,2250.0,1450.0,1080.0,1010.0,960.0,920.0,940.0,980.0,1030.0,990.0,1050.0,970.0,2180.0,1390.0,1040.0,980.0,930.0,900.0,910.0,950.0,1010.0,960.0,1020.0,1010.0,2510.0,1620.0,1200.0,1120.0,1020.0,980.0,1000.0,1040.0,1070.0,1010.0,1060.0,930.0,2050.0,1300.0,980.0,920.0,880.0,850.0,870.0,910.0,950.0,910.0,970.0,950.0,2900.0,1530.0,1030.0,960.0,900.0,860.0,880.0,920.0,960.0,920.0,980.0,900.0,1950.0,1250.0,940.0,880.0,840.0,810.0,830.0,870.0,910.0,880.0,930.0,880.0,1900.0,1210.0,910.0,850.0,810.0,780.0,800.0,840.0,880.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,1850.0,1180.0,890.0,830.0,790.0,760.0,780.0,820.0,860.0,830.0,880.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[950.0,1800.0,1500.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,900.0,903.0,1710.0,1425.0,950.0,950.0,903.0,903.0,950.0,998.0,998.0,950.0,855.0,855.0,1620.0,1350.0,900.0,900.0,855.0,855.0,900.0,945.0,945.0,900.0,810.0,808.0,1530.0,1275.0,850.0,850.0,808.0,808.0,850.0,893.0,893.0,850.0,765.0,798.0,1512.0,1260.0,840.0,840.0,798.0,798.0,840.0,882.0,882.0,840.0,756.0,760.0,1440.0,1200.0,800.0,800.0,760.0,760.0,800.0,840.0,840.0,800.0,720.0,713.0,1350.0,1125.0,750.0,750.0,713.0,713.0,750.0,788.0,788.0,750.0,675.0,684.0,1296.0,1080.0,720.0,720.0,684.0,684.0,720.0,756.0,756.0,720.0,648.0,646.0,1224.0,1020.0,680.0,680.0,646.0,646.0,680.0,714.0,714.0,680.0,612.0,570.0,1080.0,900.0,600.0,600.0,570.0,570.0,600.0,630.0,630.0,600.0,540.0]}},{"title":"Flag Desecration Amendment","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Flag Desecration Amendment\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[4436,6681,8976,7474,5653,5982,9579,4664,7535,5346,59605,16798,11067,6921,4748,3786,4110,3380,3270,3466,13045,7646,4071,3302,3655,3492,3542,3507,4407,3528,4176,3270,5722,5284,5281,3491,4573,10695,4035,3545,3660,6303,8589,3775,6660,7094,5931,8813,8320,6962,4931,5901,8211,30503,10789,6465,6893,6348,6172,3953,6027,3565,3674,3165,3290,3808,3389,2662,3156,3060,1896,1694,1954,1917,1849,1726,2079,2147,2247,2166,2574,2243,2236,1731,1923,1765,1819,1620,1579,2004,2156,1583,2454,2151,1715,1458,1589,1658,1418,1687,2183,1625,3494,2021,1937,1850,1737,1458,1706,1801,1410,1485,1047,2444,1180,7935,2864,3386,2021,1424],"flat_reference_value":17098.580665314388,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[1250.0,1300.0,1450.0,1350.0,1500.0,1650.0,2100.0,1900.0,3200.0,2300.0,8500.0,4900.0,2300.0,1750.0,1600.0,1500.0,1550.0,1700.0,1900.0,1600.0,5500.0,3700.0,2300.0,1600.0,1450.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1450.0,1700.0,1200.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,5200.0,2700.0,1350.0,1450.0,1400.0,1300.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1050.0,1000.0,1700.0,8500.0,5200.0,2400.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1250.0,1650.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1350.0,1650.0,1100.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,900.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1250.0,1550.0,1000.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,850.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1200.0,1500.0,950.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,850.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1200.0,1350.0,3500.0,2000.0,1650.0,1900.0,1750.0,1100.0,1250.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1200.0,2100.0,4200.0,2000.0,1400.0,1250.0,1150.0,950.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[2350.0,2600.0,2850.0,2900.0,2750.0,2650.0,2400.0,2500.0,3700.0,3200.0,34500.0,12400.0,4300.0,3100.0,3250.0,3050.0,2950.0,2700.0,2250.0,2150.0,5100.0,3600.0,3050.0,2300.0,2550.0,2650.0,2800.0,2850.0,3450.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,3300.0,2950.0,2750.0,2050.0,2350.0,2500.0,2700.0,2750.0,2650.0,19200.0,4400.0,2300.0,2600.0,2850.0,2600.0,2000.0,2300.0,2450.0,2050.0,1950.0,2350.0,11500.0,5400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3900.0,3750.0,2350.0,3400.0,2450.0,2550.0,2500.0,2350.0,2900.0,2150.0,1850.0,2150.0,2300.0,2150.0,1750.0,1950.0,2050.0,2250.0,2200.0,2150.0,2350.0,1900.0,1650.0,1950.0,2100.0,2050.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2050.0,2000.0,2250.0,1800.0,1550.0,1850.0,1950.0,1850.0,1500.0,1750.0,1850.0,2000.0,2050.0,2100.0,2450.0,9800.0,4700.0,2850.0,3400.0,4900.0,2250.0,3150.0,2200.0,2250.0,2150.0,2050.0,4400.0,2450.0,23500.0,7600.0,3100.0,2350.0,1850.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[3400.0,3200.0,3600.0,3800.0,4100.0,4200.0,4900.0,3300.0,3700.0,4200.0,32400.0,26800.0,7100.0,4900.0,4400.0,4200.0,4800.0,4600.0,4300.0,3600.0,4100.0,3700.0,3500.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3600.0,3700.0,4100.0,4300.0,3900.0,3000.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,2900.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3600.0,4400.0,18500.0,5600.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3200.0,2800.0,3100.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,3800.0,13900.0,11200.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,2800.0,3400.0,2900.0,3300.0,3500.0,3900.0,4100.0,3600.0,2700.0,3100.0,3300.0,3000.0,2600.0,2900.0,2700.0,3200.0,3300.0,3800.0,3900.0,3500.0,2600.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,2500.0,2800.0,2600.0,3100.0,3200.0,3600.0,3900.0,3400.0,2500.0,2800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2400.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,3200.0,3500.0,4100.0,12800.0,5100.0,3400.0,3500.0,3200.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2900.0,3100.0,3400.0,3600.0,3200.0,2500.0,2800.0,2900.0,2700.0,2400.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1500.0,1600.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,7500.0,5200.0,2200.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1450.0,1450.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1050.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1300.0,1300.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,3200.0,1700.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,1400.0,1500.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,850.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,1050.0,1050.0,850.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,780.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,950.0,950.0,780.0,800.0,800.0,780.0,720.0,780.0,780.0,800.0,760.0,750.0,880.0,880.0,720.0,760.0,760.0,740.0,680.0,740.0,740.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,850.0,900.0,720.0,740.0,760.0,800.0,700.0,780.0,760.0,760.0,740.0,740.0,1000.0,950.0,7000.0,5500.0,2000.0,1400.0,1100.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[4200.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,5200.0,6000.0,4800.0,5500.0,5000.0,42000.0,12000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,5000.0,5200.0,4800.0,6500.0,5500.0,4500.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,7000.0,5500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3800.0,10000.0,6500.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3300.0,4000.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3600.0,3800.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3500.0,3500.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,3200.0,3200.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,3500.0,5500.0,4500.0,3000.0,3000.0,3500.0,2800.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,4500.0,3800.0,22000.0,7000.0,3800.0,3200.0,2900.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5200.0,4600.0,4900.0,4400.0,5600.0,13500.0,16800.0,6800.0,5900.0,6900.0,155000.0,21000.0,22000.0,7500.0,6200.0,5800.0,6900.0,11800.0,9500.0,6300.0,5600.0,5200.0,5800.0,5400.0,6000.0,5300.0,5600.0,5100.0,5900.0,10500.0,8800.0,6100.0,5400.0,5000.0,5300.0,4900.0,5300.0,4800.0,5100.0,4700.0,5500.0,9800.0,8200.0,5700.0,5100.0,4800.0,5200.0,4700.0,5400.0,5000.0,5600.0,5900.0,9000.0,62000.0,31000.0,8500.0,6200.0,6000.0,7500.0,5300.0,13500.0,6200.0,5500.0,5200.0,5800.0,9500.0,7800.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,5400.0,9200.0,7400.0,5300.0,4900.0,4600.0,5000.0,4600.0,4900.0,4500.0,4700.0,4400.0,5100.0,8800.0,7000.0,5000.0,4700.0,5600.0,5400.0,4600.0,4900.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,8500.0,12000.0,38000.0,7200.0,5600.0,5400.0,6800.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,5000.0,6500.0,5600.0,11500.0,9800.0,45000.0,13500.0,5800.0,5400.0,5000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1900.0,1790.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2730.0,2940.0,2310.0,2100.0,2100.0,18000.0,9000.0,4000.0,1700.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2600.0,2800.0,2200.0,5500.0,3500.0,2000.0,1800.0,1710.0,1620.0,1810.0,1810.0,1900.0,2470.0,2660.0,2090.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1710.0,1620.0,1530.0,1710.0,1710.0,1800.0,2600.0,2520.0,1980.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1620.0,1530.0,1450.0,1620.0,1620.0,1700.0,7000.0,5000.0,1870.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1530.0,2300.0,1400.0,1570.0,1570.0,1650.0,2150.0,2310.0,1820.0,1650.0,1650.0,1650.0,1490.0,1440.0,1360.0,1520.0,1520.0,1600.0,2080.0,2240.0,1760.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1440.0,1400.0,1320.0,1470.0,1470.0,1550.0,2020.0,2170.0,1710.0,1550.0,1550.0,1550.0,1400.0,1350.0,1280.0,1430.0,1430.0,1500.0,2100.0,2100.0,1650.0,1500.0,1500.0,1650.0,1350.0,1350.0,1280.0,1430.0,1430.0,1500.0,4500.0,3000.0,45000.0,18000.0,6000.0,3000.0,2200.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1200.0,1450.0,2900.0,1350.0,1900.0,2000.0,3600.0,15500.0,5200.0,2300.0,1650.0,1450.0,1400.0,1700.0,2100.0,1500.0,2800.0,1850.0,1650.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1550.0,1950.0,1500.0,2250.0,1800.0,1700.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1550.0,1950.0,1450.0,1550.0,1550.0,1550.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1300.0,1350.0,1750.0,5400.0,3300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2500.0,1700.0,3600.0,2000.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1750.0,2150.0,1600.0,1650.0,1650.0,1650.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1900.0,1800.0,2250.0,1650.0,1750.0,1750.0,1700.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1750.0,2150.0,1650.0,1750.0,1750.0,1750.0,1550.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,2400.0,4300.0,2500.0,2300.0,3900.0,2200.0,2200.0,2700.0,2300.0,4300.0,2000.0,1850.0,1850.0,1900.0,5300.0,3100.0,1950.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[520.0,480.0,500.0,520.0,550.0,700.0,850.0,500.0,550.0,600.0,4200.0,1400.0,800.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,650.0,800.0,950.0,650.0,650.0,600.0,650.0,550.0,550.0,500.0,550.0,550.0,600.0,750.0,900.0,550.0,550.0,550.0,600.0,500.0,600.0,550.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,800.0,1100.0,650.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,550.0,650.0,600.0,650.0,650.0,800.0,3000.0,1800.0,900.0,800.0,800.0,1500.0,800.0,1600.0,900.0,800.0,750.0,750.0,900.0,1100.0,750.0,750.0,700.0,750.0,650.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,700.0,750.0,900.0,1000.0,700.0,700.0,650.0,700.0,600.0,600.0,550.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,800.0,900.0,600.0,600.0,600.0,650.0,550.0,650.0,600.0,650.0,700.0,800.0,1000.0,1200.0,800.0,800.0,900.0,2500.0,1000.0,900.0,700.0,700.0,700.0,750.0,900.0,2500.0,1500.0,900.0,800.0,800.0,700.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1750.0,1700.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,2400.0,2450.0,2050.0,3200.0,2700.0,2900.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,2250.0,2350.0,2300.0,3400.0,3000.0,2100.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1700.0,1650.0,1800.0,2100.0,2200.0,1850.0,2900.0,1900.0,1600.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1600.0,1550.0,1700.0,2000.0,2100.0,1750.0,1750.0,1650.0,1550.0,1350.0,1600.0,1550.0,1850.0,1800.0,2100.0,3600.0,2600.0,2400.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,1450.0,4200.0,2400.0,1750.0,1600.0,1750.0,2300.0,2200.0,1800.0,2400.0,1650.0,1600.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1550.0,1500.0,1650.0,1950.0,2200.0,1700.0,1700.0,1550.0,1600.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1450.0,1400.0,1550.0,1850.0,1900.0,1550.0,1600.0,1700.0,1400.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1400.0,2200.0,2100.0,1800.0,1900.0,1600.0,1900.0,2100.0,1800.0,1200.0,1500.0,1300.0,1400.0,1350.0,1500.0,3400.0,2100.0,8500.0,11000.0,2600.0,1700.0,1200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2900.0,2700.0,3000.0,3200.0,4200.0,6500.0,5300.0,4600.0,5600.0,4800.0,18000.0,6500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,3400.0,5100.0,4300.0,2600.0,5200.0,3800.0,3200.0,2400.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,2900.0,4400.0,3700.0,2200.0,2500.0,2300.0,3600.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2600.0,4000.0,3400.0,2000.0,2300.0,2100.0,3100.0,1900.0,2200.0,2000.0,2300.0,2600.0,3600.0,9000.0,5200.0,2700.0,2900.0,2600.0,5600.0,2400.0,8500.0,2400.0,2100.0,2200.0,2800.0,4200.0,3500.0,2100.0,3200.0,2200.0,3000.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2500.0,3800.0,3200.0,1900.0,2200.0,2000.0,3000.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1800.0,2300.0,3400.0,2900.0,1700.0,2000.0,1800.0,2400.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,6500.0,7500.0,4300.0,3400.0,1800.0,2100.0,1900.0,4500.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1600.0,1700.0,2100.0,3200.0,2700.0,1600.0,1900.0,1700.0,2300.0,1500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2200.0,2300.0,3200.0,4100.0,2400.0,2250.0,2400.0,5000.0,3100.0,3300.0,4300.0,3000.0,2350.0,2400.0,3350.0,4300.0,4000.0,2400.0,2450.0,2650.0,2500.0,3200.0,12500.0,52000.0,8500.0,2700.0,3600.0,4900.0,2800.0,2550.0,2700.0,3100.0,2850.0,2700.0,4300.0,5500.0,2400.0,2450.0,3200.0,4150.0,2450.0,2300.0,2400.0,2650.0,2500.0,2700.0,2550.0,2850.0,2450.0,3500.0,18500.0,7200.0,3000.0,2550.0,2650.0,3850.0,9200.0,28500.0,10000.0,4100.0,2500.0,2500.0,3250.0,4250.0,2500.0,2350.0,2450.0,2650.0,2500.0,2400.0,3950.0,3050.0,2250.0,2300.0,3000.0,3900.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2700.0,2400.0,2400.0,4500.0,3600.0,2200.0,2250.0,2950.0,3800.0,2300.0,2150.0,2250.0,2500.0,2300.0,2500.0,4650.0,3600.0,2250.0,2300.0,3000.0,4500.0,2350.0,2200.0,2300.0,3000.0,2400.0,4600.0,12500.0,9000.0,4000.0,2450.0,3250.0,4400.0,2500.0,2250.0,2350.0,2650.0,2400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[220.0,200.0,210.0,200.0,190.0,230.0,220.0,210.0,230.0,260.0,420.0,2600.0,700.0,400.0,330.0,300.0,280.0,300.0,280.0,270.0,420.0,380.0,300.0,270.0,260.0,250.0,240.0,230.0,230.0,300.0,260.0,240.0,250.0,270.0,230.0,220.0,220.0,210.0,210.0,200.0,210.0,320.0,280.0,230.0,220.0,220.0,200.0,190.0,200.0,190.0,180.0,180.0,200.0,330.0,260.0,200.0,190.0,200.0,190.0,170.0,180.0,170.0,170.0,160.0,170.0,230.0,200.0,170.0,160.0,170.0,160.0,150.0,160.0,150.0,160.0,150.0,150.0,200.0,180.0,150.0,150.0,160.0,150.0,140.0,150.0,150.0,150.0,140.0,150.0,190.0,170.0,140.0,140.0,150.0,140.0,130.0,140.0,140.0,140.0,130.0,140.0,180.0,150.0,140.0,130.0,150.0,140.0,130.0,140.0,130.0,140.0,130.0,140.0,170.0,150.0,3200.0,1300.0,450.0,300.0,250.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,1950.0,1850.0,2600.0,4200.0,3000.0,3200.0,11000.0,9500.0,2700.0,3400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2250.0,2100.0,2800.0,5300.0,3200.0,8200.0,6300.0,3100.0,2400.0,2300.0,2050.0,2150.0,2000.0,1900.0,2350.0,3050.0,2150.0,2000.0,2600.0,2150.0,1900.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1850.0,1700.0,2200.0,2950.0,1900.0,1950.0,2350.0,1800.0,1600.0,1900.0,1750.0,2050.0,1850.0,3100.0,14000.0,10500.0,7300.0,5800.0,9800.0,7500.0,4300.0,5000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2100.0,2000.0,4300.0,3200.0,2200.0,1850.0,1950.0,1700.0,1400.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,2200.0,2900.0,2000.0,2450.0,3500.0,2600.0,1800.0,1600.0,1450.0,1650.0,1450.0,1350.0,1800.0,2350.0,1650.0,1500.0,1900.0,1550.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,1350.0,1250.0,1700.0,3400.0,4300.0,6000.0,9000.0,7200.0,3000.0,1500.0,1250.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,1450.0,2050.0,1250.0,1150.0,1350.0,1150.0,900.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[260.0,240.0,270.0,250.0,280.0,310.0,340.0,300.0,320.0,410.0,8500.0,2900.0,1150.0,620.0,480.0,430.0,460.0,440.0,470.0,520.0,610.0,560.0,490.0,420.0,430.0,390.0,410.0,380.0,420.0,470.0,500.0,460.0,480.0,530.0,490.0,400.0,410.0,370.0,390.0,360.0,400.0,440.0,480.0,450.0,430.0,470.0,420.0,360.0,390.0,370.0,440.0,420.0,480.0,1050.0,850.0,610.0,520.0,590.0,720.0,510.0,680.0,460.0,410.0,390.0,420.0,450.0,480.0,430.0,410.0,440.0,400.0,350.0,370.0,340.0,360.0,330.0,360.0,400.0,420.0,390.0,370.0,410.0,390.0,330.0,350.0,320.0,340.0,310.0,340.0,390.0,410.0,370.0,350.0,390.0,360.0,310.0,340.0,320.0,350.0,340.0,370.0,420.0,530.0,470.0,440.0,560.0,850.0,490.0,380.0,350.0,370.0,340.0,360.0,400.0,430.0,390.0,370.0,410.0,390.0,330.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[380.0,360.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,420.0,450.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,400.0,360.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,350.0,340.0,360.0,380.0,420.0,350.0,330.0,340.0,320.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,700.0,500.0,3800.0,1700.0,700.0,500.0,420.0,380.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,380.0,350.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,300.0,320.0,330.0,360.0,1900.0,900.0,500.0,420.0,380.0,360.0,340.0,350.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,350.0,330.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,290.0,280.0,290.0,300.0,290.0,300.0,330.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,280.0,270.0,270.0,280.0,280.0,290.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,270.0,260.0,270.0,280.0,280.0,290.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,350.0,300.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,380.0,420.0,6500.0,5200.0,2000.0,1000.0,700.0]}},{"title":"North American P-51 Mustang variants","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"North American P-51 Mustang variants\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5187,5211,4710,4495,4678,4339,4518,4738,4436,8429,4597,4849,4892,4486,4962,4019,4530,4242,4731,5229,8177,5418,5064,5161,5475,4264,4950,5146,5502,4763,5334,5825,5047,4833,5681,5968,6660,6202,5999,6104,6096,5826,5775,6285,6079,6501,6501,6399,6403,6575,7160,8400,9090,7187,6814,6871,7741,7108,7481,7551,7556,7559,8141,7729,7279,6441,6952,6429,6144,6555,5835,6409,7323,6221,5997,6524,8179,10253,8341,8081,6886,7064,6764,6585,7046,5977,6538,6776,8383,6822,8142,8633,8701,7426,8731,8492,9500,10783,12045,8039,8102,7278,7189,7263,6250,6521,5937,6959,7541,7445,7458,7681,7084,6138,6778,7082,6140,6539,6049,5990],"flat_reference_value":17047.168733203784,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[5900.0,5600.0,6100.0,5700.0,6000.0,6300.0,6800.0,6500.0,6100.0,5900.0,5500.0,5300.0,6000.0,5700.0,6200.0,5900.0,6200.0,6600.0,7000.0,6700.0,6300.0,6100.0,5700.0,5500.0,6100.0,5800.0,6300.0,6000.0,6400.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,5700.0,6300.0,5900.0,6500.0,6200.0,6600.0,7100.0,7400.0,7200.0,6700.0,6400.0,6200.0,5900.0,6500.0,6200.0,7100.0,7900.0,8400.0,8100.0,8500.0,8200.0,7600.0,7300.0,6900.0,6700.0,7100.0,6700.0,7200.0,6900.0,7300.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7300.0,7000.0,6600.0,6400.0,6900.0,6500.0,7100.0,6800.0,7400.0,7900.0,8200.0,7800.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,6300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6900.0,6600.0,7000.0,7400.0,7800.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6400.0,6200.0,7600.0,8200.0,7900.0,7100.0,7300.0,7900.0,8100.0,7800.0,7200.0,6900.0,6600.0,6400.0,7000.0,6600.0,7200.0,7100.0,7900.0,8000.0,8300.0,8100.0,7500.0,7000.0,6700.0,6500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[7540.0,6890.0,7480.0,7150.0,7320.0,7180.0,7610.0,7430.0,6850.0,7020.0,6740.0,6910.0,7460.0,6720.0,7390.0,7080.0,7250.0,7120.0,7840.0,7690.0,6930.0,7050.0,6680.0,6820.0,7380.0,6610.0,7310.0,6980.0,7140.0,6950.0,7490.0,7280.0,6760.0,6910.0,6590.0,6750.0,7320.0,6580.0,7260.0,6940.0,7190.0,7680.0,7540.0,7360.0,6810.0,6970.0,6640.0,6890.0,7450.0,6920.0,7860.0,8940.0,9180.0,8420.0,8350.0,8490.0,7820.0,7760.0,7480.0,7650.0,8120.0,7290.0,7940.0,7510.0,7460.0,7180.0,7530.0,7340.0,6790.0,6920.0,6610.0,6780.0,7240.0,6520.0,7150.0,6890.0,8460.0,9680.0,8310.0,7540.0,6820.0,6790.0,6540.0,6670.0,7080.0,6340.0,6950.0,6620.0,6780.0,6590.0,6980.0,6810.0,6290.0,6420.0,6580.0,6710.0,7850.0,9640.0,12480.0,8720.0,7390.0,7460.0,6950.0,6620.0,6080.0,6190.0,5890.0,6040.0,6380.0,5690.0,6240.0,5960.0,6680.0,6120.0,6390.0,6210.0,5710.0,5840.0,5560.0,5720.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[4650.0,4410.0,4720.0,4380.0,4890.0,4620.0,4450.0,4310.0,4200.0,4350.0,4610.0,4290.0,4800.0,4320.0,4670.0,4410.0,4750.0,4580.0,4690.0,4390.0,4250.0,4480.0,4710.0,4390.0,5020.0,4550.0,4890.0,4610.0,4920.0,4730.0,4560.0,4400.0,4380.0,4650.0,4910.0,4520.0,5100.0,4620.0,4980.0,4700.0,5150.0,5480.0,4710.0,4520.0,4390.0,4600.0,4880.0,4510.0,5050.0,4790.0,5620.0,6240.0,6110.0,5350.0,5120.0,4890.0,4750.0,4910.0,5180.0,4820.0,5340.0,4860.0,5120.0,4790.0,5080.0,4850.0,4620.0,4510.0,4430.0,4670.0,4950.0,4630.0,5120.0,4730.0,5010.0,4890.0,6200.0,7850.0,6920.0,5580.0,4890.0,4740.0,4930.0,4650.0,5210.0,4780.0,4990.0,4680.0,5110.0,4820.0,4610.0,4450.0,4380.0,4590.0,4810.0,4550.0,5420.0,7650.0,8100.0,5890.0,5320.0,5150.0,4720.0,4510.0,4350.0,4480.0,4760.0,4420.0,4890.0,4530.0,4780.0,4490.0,4820.0,4650.0,4390.0,4270.0,4180.0,4360.0,4580.0,4310.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[15200.0,14100.0,14600.0,13900.0,13800.0,13200.0,13500.0,13300.0,12700.0,13400.0,13700.0,14200.0,14300.0,13200.0,13600.0,12900.0,12800.0,12300.0,12900.0,12500.0,11900.0,12400.0,12600.0,13100.0,13200.0,12100.0,12500.0,11900.0,11800.0,11300.0,11700.0,11500.0,10900.0,11400.0,11600.0,12000.0,12100.0,11000.0,11400.0,10900.0,11000.0,11200.0,10800.0,10600.0,10100.0,10500.0,10700.0,11100.0,11300.0,10500.0,12200.0,13100.0,12400.0,11300.0,11000.0,10700.0,10100.0,10400.0,10700.0,11000.0,11200.0,10200.0,10400.0,9900.0,9700.0,9300.0,9500.0,9300.0,8900.0,9300.0,9500.0,9800.0,9900.0,9100.0,9600.0,9200.0,11800.0,15300.0,12100.0,10300.0,9300.0,9200.0,9300.0,9700.0,9600.0,8800.0,9100.0,8700.0,8600.0,8300.0,8500.0,8300.0,7900.0,8200.0,8400.0,8700.0,9900.0,10800.0,10100.0,8800.0,8300.0,8200.0,7900.0,7800.0,7400.0,7700.0,7800.0,8100.0,8200.0,7500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7600.0,7200.0,7300.0,7100.0,6800.0,7000.0,7100.0,7400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,6900.0,6600.0,6900.0,6800.0,6400.0,6500.0,6600.0,6800.0,7300.0,6700.0,7000.0,6700.0,6800.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,6400.0,6500.0,6500.0,6700.0,7100.0,6500.0,6800.0,6500.0,6600.0,6300.0,6600.0,6600.0,6200.0,6300.0,6400.0,6500.0,6900.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6600.0,6400.0,6700.0,6600.0,6200.0,6300.0,6400.0,6600.0,7000.0,6600.0,7200.0,8200.0,8300.0,7500.0,7500.0,7400.0,6900.0,6900.0,7000.0,7300.0,7600.0,6900.0,7200.0,6900.0,7000.0,6700.0,6900.0,6900.0,6400.0,6500.0,6500.0,6700.0,7000.0,6500.0,6900.0,6600.0,7300.0,8000.0,7400.0,7100.0,6600.0,6500.0,6500.0,6800.0,7000.0,6400.0,6700.0,6400.0,6600.0,6400.0,6700.0,6700.0,6300.0,6300.0,6400.0,6700.0,7400.0,7800.0,7900.0,6900.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,6800.0,6400.0,6400.0,6400.0,6700.0,7000.0,6400.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,6500.0,6700.0,6700.0,6300.0,6300.0,6200.0,6400.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5900.0,5300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5700.0,6100.0,5400.0,5100.0,5200.0,5500.0,6000.0,5400.0,5500.0,5100.0,5300.0,5100.0,5400.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5500.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,5100.0,5500.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,5300.0,4800.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4800.0,5200.0,4900.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,5100.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,5900.0,6300.0,7000.0,6600.0,5900.0,5800.0,6200.0,5400.0,5700.0,5100.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,5200.0,5500.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,5300.0,4800.0,4700.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,5000.0,4700.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4800.0,4300.0,4500.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4400.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4600.0,4100.0,7200.0,10500.0,8200.0,4700.0,4600.0,5300.0,4900.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4900.0,4500.0,4400.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4600.0,4200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3724.0,3512.0,3774.0,3621.0,4145.0,4368.0,3771.0,3589.0,3518.0,3628.0,3924.0,3405.0,3605.0,3421.0,3672.0,3528.0,4034.0,4248.0,3673.0,3492.0,3418.0,3529.0,3817.0,3312.0,3502.0,3324.0,3571.0,3432.0,3918.0,4128.0,3569.0,3396.0,3327.0,3431.0,3708.0,3218.0,3401.0,3228.0,3468.0,3332.0,4948.0,5417.0,3469.0,3298.0,3231.0,3333.0,3604.0,3127.0,3352.0,3183.0,4102.0,4098.0,5628.0,4948.0,3418.0,3248.0,3182.0,3283.0,3553.0,3084.0,3203.0,3041.0,3264.0,3137.0,3582.0,3778.0,3261.0,3102.0,3038.0,3139.0,3392.0,2943.0,3102.0,2948.0,3163.0,3038.0,5402.0,6798.0,5795.0,4508.0,2947.0,3039.0,3287.0,2852.0,3001.0,2853.0,3058.0,2941.0,3362.0,3538.0,3062.0,2908.0,2849.0,2942.0,3178.0,2758.0,4203.0,4638.0,4078.0,2842.0,3248.0,4639.0,2958.0,2812.0,2757.0,2841.0,3073.0,2668.0,2802.0,2658.0,2857.0,2743.0,3138.0,3304.0,2858.0,2718.0,2662.0,2741.0,2968.0,2577.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[7350.0,7180.0,7240.0,7110.0,7560.0,8050.0,8450.0,7820.0,7260.0,6840.0,7100.0,6410.0,7750.0,7560.0,7640.0,7520.0,8010.0,8500.0,9100.0,8280.0,7620.0,7230.0,7450.0,6810.0,8160.0,7980.0,8060.0,7920.0,8400.0,8920.0,9420.0,8730.0,8010.0,7580.0,7840.0,7150.0,8500.0,8280.0,8330.0,8220.0,8740.0,10300.0,10120.0,9080.0,8320.0,7890.0,8700.0,7700.0,9800.0,9620.0,10600.0,11300.0,11600.0,11700.0,11900.0,10900.0,9900.0,9300.0,9500.0,8600.0,9300.0,9080.0,9150.0,9050.0,9600.0,10200.0,10750.0,9950.0,9120.0,8700.0,8950.0,8150.0,9500.0,9280.0,9350.0,9250.0,9800.0,10400.0,11000.0,10200.0,9280.0,8900.0,9600.0,8550.0,9800.0,9560.0,9650.0,9550.0,10150.0,10750.0,11350.0,10550.0,9580.0,9200.0,9500.0,8650.0,12600.0,14200.0,12900.0,11400.0,11900.0,13400.0,13600.0,12300.0,11100.0,10600.0,11000.0,10100.0,10750.0,10480.0,10520.0,10450.0,11550.0,12350.0,12550.0,11750.0,10480.0,10050.0,10550.0,9450.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[300.0,290.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,360.0,370.0,350.0,330.0,310.0,300.0,280.0,310.0,300.0,330.0,340.0,360.0,380.0,390.0,370.0,350.0,330.0,320.0,300.0,330.0,320.0,350.0,360.0,380.0,400.0,410.0,390.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,320.0,350.0,340.0,370.0,380.0,400.0,800.0,450.0,420.0,390.0,370.0,360.0,340.0,370.0,360.0,390.0,420.0,900.0,480.0,500.0,470.0,440.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,400.0,390.0,420.0,430.0,460.0,490.0,510.0,480.0,450.0,430.0,410.0,390.0,420.0,410.0,440.0,450.0,900.0,2200.0,1800.0,1100.0,700.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,470.0,460.0,490.0,500.0,530.0,560.0,580.0,550.0,520.0,500.0,480.0,460.0,800.0,1500.0,1300.0,900.0,600.0,620.0,640.0,610.0,580.0,550.0,530.0,510.0,520.0,510.0,540.0,550.0,1200.0,900.0,700.0,650.0,620.0,600.0,580.0,560.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1020.0,930.0,1180.0,1290.0,1520.0,1950.0,1780.0,1680.0,1440.0,1310.0,1150.0,960.0,940.0,910.0,1080.0,1230.0,1390.0,1740.0,1760.0,1590.0,1400.0,1210.0,1090.0,930.0,880.0,860.0,1040.0,1210.0,1330.0,1660.0,1680.0,1520.0,1290.0,1180.0,1030.0,870.0,920.0,890.0,1070.0,1200.0,1520.0,2600.0,1750.0,1580.0,1330.0,1190.0,1060.0,920.0,850.0,820.0,1150.0,1250.0,1580.0,1750.0,1520.0,1700.0,1380.0,1100.0,1020.0,830.0,810.0,770.0,960.0,1070.0,1220.0,1500.0,1480.0,1420.0,1170.0,1080.0,950.0,790.0,780.0,730.0,920.0,1030.0,1380.0,1620.0,1500.0,1380.0,1120.0,1010.0,910.0,750.0,740.0,700.0,880.0,970.0,1120.0,1380.0,1350.0,1280.0,1080.0,960.0,870.0,720.0,1020.0,1120.0,1240.0,1180.0,1320.0,2350.0,1450.0,1300.0,1090.0,980.0,890.0,730.0,710.0,660.0,830.0,930.0,1500.0,1600.0,1280.0,1220.0,1020.0,920.0,820.0,680.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[14880.0,14570.0,15970.0,15500.0,16430.0,17210.0,17520.0,17050.0,15970.0,15500.0,15190.0,18830.0,15550.0,15230.0,16690.0,16200.0,17170.0,17980.0,19770.0,17820.0,16690.0,16200.0,15880.0,14580.0,16320.0,15980.0,17510.0,17000.0,18020.0,18870.0,19210.0,18700.0,17510.0,17000.0,16660.0,15300.0,17280.0,16920.0,18540.0,18000.0,19080.0,25970.0,22370.0,19800.0,18540.0,18000.0,17640.0,16200.0,19680.0,19270.0,29560.0,26650.0,30420.0,25030.0,24320.0,28190.0,25340.0,20500.0,20090.0,20300.0,21600.0,21150.0,25490.0,22500.0,23850.0,24980.0,25430.0,24750.0,23180.0,22500.0,22050.0,25310.0,18720.0,18330.0,21090.0,19500.0,24800.0,24890.0,23880.0,21450.0,21690.0,19500.0,21020.0,17550.0,16130.0,15790.0,17300.0,16800.0,17810.0,18650.0,18980.0,18480.0,18170.0,16800.0,16460.0,15120.0,23760.0,27920.0,24640.0,18980.0,18360.0,24730.0,20510.0,19060.0,16995.0,16500.0,17790.0,15590.0,12960.0,12690.0,13910.0,13500.0,17170.0,15730.0,15260.0,16340.0,14600.0,13500.0,13230.0,12760.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2850.0,2700.0,2850.0,2800.0,2750.0,2650.0,2550.0,2500.0,2750.0,3000.0,3200.0,3350.0,3200.0,3050.0,3200.0,3150.0,3050.0,3000.0,2900.0,2850.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3350.0,3500.0,3450.0,3350.0,3400.0,3250.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,3850.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3850.0,3800.0,3700.0,4900.0,3950.0,3750.0,4050.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4250.0,4100.0,4700.0,5500.0,6100.0,5100.0,4550.0,5150.0,4650.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,4650.0,4400.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4950.0,4450.0,4350.0,4650.0,4750.0,4800.0,5200.0,4550.0,4400.0,4800.0,4650.0,4550.0,4750.0,4300.0,4200.0,4450.0,4600.0,4700.0,4850.0,4650.0,4450.0,4600.0,4550.0,4450.0,4700.0,4300.0,4350.0,4450.0,4550.0,4700.0,4750.0,4600.0,4400.0,4550.0,4500.0,4700.0,6300.0,5000.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4650.0,4700.0,5400.0,5200.0,4650.0,4500.0,4650.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1900.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2210.0,1955.0,2070.0,2160.0,2640.0,3105.0,2270.0,1935.0,2050.0,2145.0,2720.0,2360.0,2460.0,2225.0,2355.0,2410.0,2980.0,3565.0,2535.0,2195.0,2300.0,2450.0,3085.0,2715.0,2740.0,2495.0,2620.0,2705.0,3320.0,3955.0,2850.0,2475.0,2560.0,2745.0,3435.0,3030.0,2835.0,2590.0,2715.0,2810.0,4145.0,5170.0,2960.0,2565.0,2655.0,2845.0,4125.0,3140.0,2730.0,2415.0,2315.0,2455.0,3860.0,5045.0,2635.0,2320.0,2465.0,2620.0,3735.0,3120.0,2635.0,2420.0,2530.0,2625.0,3240.0,3825.0,2770.0,2405.0,2485.0,2655.0,3370.0,2930.0,2560.0,2340.0,2480.0,2590.0,3950.0,4825.0,2735.0,2360.0,2435.0,2580.0,3815.0,2940.0,2340.0,2175.0,2265.0,2330.0,3160.0,3930.0,2460.0,2165.0,2260.0,2370.0,3260.0,2665.0,2495.0,2285.0,2440.0,2605.0,4280.0,5360.0,2790.0,2330.0,2425.0,2560.0,3860.0,2905.0,2260.0,2065.0,2140.0,2275.0,3365.0,4215.0,2385.0,2115.0,2180.0,2305.0,3210.0,2565.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[760.0,730.0,790.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,920.0,880.0,820.0,800.0,760.0,700.0,750.0,720.0,780.0,810.0,850.0,900.0,910.0,870.0,810.0,790.0,750.0,690.0,770.0,740.0,800.0,840.0,880.0,940.0,950.0,900.0,840.0,810.0,780.0,720.0,790.0,760.0,830.0,900.0,1120.0,1300.0,1030.0,960.0,870.0,840.0,800.0,740.0,810.0,780.0,850.0,890.0,940.0,1000.0,1010.0,1080.0,910.0,870.0,820.0,760.0,800.0,770.0,830.0,860.0,910.0,960.0,970.0,920.0,860.0,830.0,790.0,730.0,790.0,760.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,950.0,960.0,910.0,850.0,820.0,780.0,720.0,780.0,750.0,810.0,840.0,890.0,940.0,950.0,900.0,840.0,810.0,770.0,710.0,800.0,770.0,850.0,920.0,1200.0,1500.0,1100.0,970.0,880.0,840.0,800.0,740.0,780.0,750.0,820.0,860.0,1030.0,1100.0,980.0,920.0,850.0,820.0,780.0,720.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1395.0,1472.0,1628.0,1674.0,1705.0,1674.0,1628.0,1581.0,1550.0,1550.0,1473.0,1318.0,1350.0,1425.0,1575.0,1620.0,1650.0,1620.0,1575.0,1530.0,1500.0,1500.0,1425.0,1275.0,1278.0,1349.0,1491.0,1534.0,1562.0,1534.0,1491.0,1448.0,1420.0,1420.0,1349.0,1207.0,1215.0,1283.0,1418.0,1458.0,1485.0,1458.0,1418.0,1377.0,1350.0,1350.0,1283.0,1148.0,1242.0,1311.0,1449.0,1530.0,1560.0,1490.0,1449.0,1408.0,1380.0,1380.0,1311.0,1173.0,1152.0,1216.0,1344.0,1382.0,1408.0,1382.0,1344.0,1306.0,1280.0,1280.0,1216.0,1088.0,1125.0,1188.0,1313.0,1350.0,1375.0,1380.0,1313.0,1275.0,1250.0,1250.0,1188.0,1063.0,1035.0,1093.0,1208.0,1242.0,1265.0,1242.0,1208.0,1173.0,1150.0,1150.0,1093.0,978.0,918.0,969.0,1071.0,1102.0,1122.0,1102.0,1071.0,1040.0,1020.0,1020.0,969.0,867.0,828.0,874.0,966.0,994.0,1012.0,994.0,966.0,938.0,920.0,920.0,874.0,782.0]}},{"title":"Winnie-the-Pooh (book)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Winnie-the-Pooh (book)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[8783,7657,8201,7903,8634,7427,6491,6928,7865,11178,8890,8525,9295,7907,9024,8600,8933,14464,8949,16361,13065,19664,12285,12001,21365,15610,33178,14043,20174,20720,34280,55803,20390,17520,20890,18694,18708,13309,22455,13721,11586,10068,10387,10117,10150,14936,10461,9423,10553,9824,10568,13433,12091,11509,9803,10369,10998,11164,10997,12120,13121,10266,11746,11136,10968,9688,9875,10945,11751,15565,11326,18409,24315,11811,13862,11305,18783,13902,16988,17256,24684,16227,14209,12932,16735,19454,19229,15807,14762,13607,13461,13710,12727,17743,14240,14166,22013,14927,18532,17004,12736,13011,11928,12165,11833,14493,13588,12367,13111,10162,11190,10019,10356,9456,9783,10735,9743,12035,10861,12522],"flat_reference_value":16986.571169189836,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[12500.0,8100.0,8500.0,7900.0,8400.0,8200.0,8600.0,8900.0,10300.0,34000.0,11200.0,10300.0,11800.0,8100.0,8500.0,7900.0,8200.0,7800.0,8200.0,8800.0,12500.0,18000.0,13300.0,10500.0,12700.0,9100.0,9500.0,9000.0,9400.0,9700.0,13500.0,27500.0,16900.0,13900.0,11300.0,10800.0,12800.0,9000.0,9300.0,8800.0,9200.0,8500.0,9000.0,9300.0,9700.0,11300.0,9700.0,9900.0,12400.0,8800.0,9200.0,9400.0,9000.0,8300.0,8700.0,9200.0,9600.0,11100.0,9500.0,10300.0,13300.0,9000.0,9600.0,9000.0,9300.0,8700.0,9200.0,9600.0,10100.0,14500.0,11500.0,22000.0,85000.0,24000.0,17000.0,14000.0,26000.0,18500.0,14500.0,15300.0,14200.0,16800.0,13200.0,14500.0,18000.0,28000.0,19500.0,15000.0,13900.0,12200.0,12600.0,13200.0,12900.0,15900.0,12600.0,13200.0,19000.0,12400.0,17000.0,14500.0,12600.0,11200.0,11700.0,12100.0,12300.0,14500.0,11900.0,12500.0,15900.0,11000.0,11700.0,11100.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11400.0,11800.0,14200.0,11600.0,12500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[9400.0,7600.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,6600.0,6800.0,6900.0,7800.0,15800.0,9600.0,8500.0,9800.0,7700.0,8100.0,7600.0,7400.0,6700.0,6900.0,7500.0,10200.0,19500.0,16400.0,10500.0,10800.0,8200.0,9800.0,8300.0,8900.0,7800.0,9500.0,24500.0,12400.0,10600.0,9800.0,9200.0,10400.0,7900.0,8400.0,7800.0,7600.0,6900.0,7100.0,7400.0,8100.0,9500.0,8600.0,8400.0,10600.0,8300.0,9200.0,10800.0,10200.0,8600.0,8300.0,8400.0,8900.0,10400.0,9500.0,9800.0,12200.0,8900.0,9100.0,8500.0,8300.0,7600.0,7800.0,8100.0,8800.0,11500.0,10800.0,18500.0,112000.0,22000.0,14500.0,12200.0,46000.0,19500.0,13800.0,21000.0,14200.0,14800.0,13200.0,14500.0,24000.0,48000.0,23500.0,14200.0,12400.0,10800.0,11200.0,11500.0,11800.0,13400.0,12600.0,15200.0,31000.0,14200.0,18500.0,13200.0,10900.0,9600.0,9800.0,9900.0,10300.0,11800.0,10600.0,11200.0,15400.0,10200.0,10500.0,9600.0,9200.0,8400.0,8600.0,8800.0,9300.0,11200.0,9900.0,10400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[13800.0,13100.0,14200.0,12900.0,12400.0,11500.0,11800.0,12600.0,13400.0,16200.0,14800.0,13500.0,13900.0,12800.0,13700.0,12300.0,12100.0,11400.0,12000.0,13100.0,13600.0,15400.0,14200.0,13000.0,14100.0,13300.0,14500.0,13600.0,14200.0,15100.0,19400.0,27800.0,18500.0,16900.0,15300.0,13700.0,14600.0,13500.0,14400.0,13200.0,12900.0,12100.0,12500.0,13400.0,14100.0,15800.0,14700.0,13300.0,14200.0,13600.0,16100.0,18200.0,16900.0,13800.0,13400.0,14100.0,14900.0,16000.0,15200.0,13900.0,14700.0,13800.0,14900.0,13500.0,13200.0,12600.0,13000.0,14200.0,15100.0,17800.0,16900.0,21500.0,84300.0,32100.0,25400.0,21800.0,38600.0,27200.0,21900.0,22400.0,21100.0,22600.0,20400.0,21800.0,25900.0,34200.0,27100.0,20800.0,18700.0,16900.0,17400.0,18100.0,18900.0,19800.0,18200.0,17100.0,19400.0,18200.0,21500.0,17900.0,16800.0,15400.0,15900.0,16700.0,17300.0,18500.0,17200.0,16100.0,18000.0,16500.0,17400.0,16200.0,15800.0,14900.0,15300.0,16000.0,16800.0,17900.0,16700.0,15600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[13500.0,12000.0,12200.0,11600.0,11300.0,10500.0,10200.0,10400.0,11000.0,15500.0,12000.0,11800.0,12800.0,11500.0,11600.0,11000.0,10800.0,10200.0,10600.0,10800.0,12500.0,17500.0,14500.0,12500.0,12500.0,11200.0,11000.0,10500.0,10300.0,10000.0,11000.0,15500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10800.0,11800.0,10500.0,10400.0,10000.0,9800.0,9300.0,9200.0,9400.0,9800.0,10500.0,10200.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10800.0,11800.0,11000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9400.0,9600.0,10200.0,9900.0,10500.0,10800.0,9600.0,9500.0,9200.0,9000.0,8600.0,8500.0,8600.0,9000.0,9600.0,9500.0,12500.0,52000.0,18000.0,13500.0,12000.0,13500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,14000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,20000.0,24000.0,14000.0,11000.0,10500.0,9800.0,9500.0,9400.0,9600.0,10200.0,9800.0,10500.0,12000.0,10500.0,11000.0,9600.0,9300.0,8800.0,8600.0,8700.0,9000.0,9500.0,9200.0,9400.0,10800.0,9300.0,9200.0,8900.0,8700.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,8500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9500.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,10000.0,14000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,12000.0,27000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,12000.0,11500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,12000.0,55000.0,20000.0,15000.0,13000.0,20000.0,16000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,22000.0,40000.0,24000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,17000.0,13000.0,15000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,13500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6200.0,5600.0,5900.0,5600.0,5700.0,6100.0,6300.0,6100.0,6400.0,6300.0,7000.0,12000.0,7000.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,7000.0,7600.0,8300.0,9600.0,10500.0,10200.0,7800.0,13000.0,7600.0,8800.0,12000.0,8200.0,8300.0,9200.0,12500.0,20000.0,10200.0,9200.0,8700.0,14000.0,8200.0,7600.0,7700.0,7600.0,7700.0,8100.0,8500.0,8600.0,8200.0,9400.0,8200.0,13500.0,8600.0,8100.0,9000.0,9200.0,8600.0,8700.0,9100.0,9000.0,8600.0,8700.0,9100.0,14000.0,9600.0,8700.0,9000.0,8800.0,10000.0,9600.0,9700.0,9700.0,9500.0,10200.0,11500.0,26000.0,120000.0,11500.0,10800.0,10200.0,10300.0,10600.0,10700.0,10700.0,10300.0,10600.0,11200.0,16000.0,14000.0,28000.0,17500.0,11500.0,11300.0,11200.0,11300.0,11600.0,11200.0,11300.0,12000.0,17000.0,30000.0,12600.0,17000.0,12200.0,12500.0,12600.0,12700.0,12600.0,12200.0,12500.0,13000.0,18000.0,14000.0,13200.0,13500.0,13200.0,13300.0,13600.0,13700.0,13600.0,13200.0,13600.0,14100.0,19000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[16800.0,15200.0,17600.0,16000.0,15200.0,13600.0,12800.0,13600.0,16800.0,17600.0,16800.0,14400.0,16275.0,14725.0,17050.0,15500.0,14725.0,13175.0,12400.0,13175.0,16275.0,28000.0,20000.0,13950.0,15750.0,14250.0,16500.0,15000.0,14250.0,12750.0,26000.0,58000.0,30000.0,16500.0,15750.0,13500.0,15225.0,13775.0,15950.0,14500.0,13775.0,12325.0,11600.0,12325.0,15225.0,15950.0,15225.0,13050.0,14700.0,13300.0,18500.0,18200.0,17200.0,11900.0,11200.0,11900.0,14700.0,15400.0,14700.0,12600.0,14175.0,12825.0,14850.0,13500.0,12825.0,11475.0,10800.0,11475.0,14175.0,14850.0,14175.0,12150.0,45000.0,21000.0,14300.0,13000.0,19000.0,17500.0,10400.0,11050.0,13650.0,14300.0,13650.0,11700.0,13125.0,28500.0,21000.0,12500.0,11875.0,10625.0,10000.0,10625.0,13125.0,13750.0,13125.0,11250.0,12600.0,11400.0,18500.0,12000.0,11400.0,10200.0,9600.0,10200.0,12600.0,13200.0,12600.0,10800.0,12075.0,10925.0,12650.0,11500.0,10925.0,9775.0,9200.0,9775.0,12075.0,12650.0,12075.0,10350.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[44200.0,31600.0,30900.0,32400.0,30800.0,29900.0,31700.0,33400.0,36200.0,43100.0,45300.0,74800.0,42300.0,31900.0,30200.0,31100.0,31000.0,29400.0,31000.0,32100.0,40200.0,47200.0,44100.0,73500.0,41600.0,30400.0,29800.0,30200.0,30600.0,29900.0,39200.0,57400.0,42500.0,40600.0,42100.0,71200.0,40800.0,29300.0,28900.0,29200.0,28400.0,27800.0,29100.0,30200.0,33400.0,35100.0,41200.0,68300.0,41500.0,30200.0,35900.0,37700.0,35600.0,32100.0,33200.0,33800.0,34000.0,36700.0,41600.0,70200.0,40900.0,29800.0,29600.0,29900.0,29100.0,28200.0,29700.0,31000.0,33500.0,36100.0,41300.0,68800.0,72000.0,31600.0,28500.0,29300.0,31900.0,27400.0,28900.0,30300.0,33800.0,35700.0,41100.0,70300.0,46000.0,48000.0,32300.0,28800.0,28400.0,27100.0,28600.0,29900.0,32200.0,34900.0,39900.0,66300.0,44500.0,28200.0,37500.0,28600.0,27300.0,26400.0,27200.0,29400.0,31300.0,34000.0,38900.0,64400.0,37900.0,27100.0,26500.0,27000.0,26800.0,25200.0,26900.0,28100.0,30400.0,32700.0,37500.0,62800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,2100.0,4200.0,2600.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,4200.0,6500.0,4800.0,3000.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,5500.0,11000.0,6500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,2900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,7500.0,22000.0,9000.0,6500.0,5500.0,11000.0,8000.0,6000.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,12000.0,28000.0,15000.0,8000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,7000.0,7000.0,14000.0,9000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[17600.0,16800.0,16800.0,20500.0,18800.0,16300.0,17300.0,17800.0,18500.0,20200.0,17500.0,17000.0,17300.0,16400.0,16400.0,19500.0,17200.0,19800.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18200.0,17200.0,16600.0,16800.0,16000.0,21000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,28000.0,32000.0,23500.0,18500.0,16800.0,16200.0,16200.0,15400.0,15400.0,15700.0,15400.0,14900.0,15800.0,16300.0,16900.0,17200.0,16200.0,15700.0,16400.0,15600.0,19500.0,18800.0,16800.0,15100.0,16000.0,16400.0,17100.0,17300.0,16300.0,15800.0,16300.0,15500.0,15500.0,15800.0,15500.0,15000.0,15900.0,16400.0,17000.0,17300.0,35000.0,46000.0,78000.0,43000.0,28000.0,21500.0,20000.0,32000.0,22000.0,22500.0,27000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19300.0,65000.0,38000.0,25500.0,22000.0,20000.0,19300.0,20000.0,20600.0,20400.0,20600.0,19500.0,18900.0,24000.0,21500.0,32000.0,43000.0,26500.0,22000.0,22800.0,23400.0,22800.0,23100.0,21800.0,21100.0,27000.0,22800.0,22100.0,21400.0,22100.0,25500.0,22100.0,22800.0,23500.0,25000.0,24000.0,25500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[59400.0,56100.0,55000.0,52300.0,51200.0,49500.0,49000.0,51200.0,55000.0,105500.0,61600.0,72600.0,62600.0,59200.0,58000.0,55100.0,53900.0,52200.0,51600.0,53900.0,58000.0,118800.0,65000.0,76600.0,67000.0,63200.0,62000.0,58900.0,57700.0,55800.0,55200.0,177700.0,102000.0,68200.0,69400.0,81800.0,71300.0,67300.0,66000.0,62700.0,61400.0,59400.0,58700.0,61400.0,66000.0,72600.0,73900.0,87100.0,81000.0,76500.0,95000.0,86300.0,69800.0,67500.0,66800.0,69800.0,75000.0,82500.0,84000.0,99000.0,91800.0,86700.0,85000.0,80800.0,79100.0,76500.0,75700.0,79100.0,85000.0,93500.0,95200.0,262200.0,586400.0,201600.0,80000.0,76000.0,224400.0,112000.0,71200.0,74400.0,80000.0,88000.0,89600.0,105600.0,81000.0,426500.0,875000.0,321300.0,149800.0,67500.0,66800.0,69800.0,75000.0,82500.0,84000.0,99000.0,75600.0,71400.0,70000.0,66500.0,65100.0,63000.0,62300.0,65100.0,70000.0,77000.0,78400.0,92400.0,73400.0,289400.0,248000.0,64600.0,63200.0,61200.0,60500.0,63200.0,68000.0,74800.0,76200.0,89800.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[39300.0,32300.0,34000.0,31000.0,30700.0,29000.0,30400.0,33700.0,34300.0,60300.0,36000.0,43300.0,42300.0,36300.0,38100.0,34800.0,34400.0,32600.0,34000.0,37700.0,38500.0,44900.0,40200.0,48300.0,47300.0,40200.0,42200.0,38500.0,38100.0,36100.0,42700.0,63800.0,51600.0,50600.0,45500.0,54300.0,49700.0,42600.0,44800.0,40900.0,40500.0,38300.0,40000.0,44400.0,45200.0,51500.0,48100.0,57400.0,53000.0,45600.0,50900.0,46200.0,44700.0,40900.0,42800.0,47400.0,48400.0,53900.0,50300.0,60100.0,61500.0,49000.0,51500.0,47000.0,46500.0,44000.0,46000.0,51000.0,54000.0,76000.0,58000.0,65500.0,55900.0,48000.0,50500.0,46100.0,45600.0,43100.0,45100.0,50000.0,52000.0,58800.0,53900.0,64300.0,54200.0,46600.0,48900.0,44700.0,44200.0,41800.0,43700.0,48500.0,49400.0,56100.0,51400.0,62400.0,53000.0,45600.0,47900.0,43700.0,43200.0,40900.0,42800.0,47400.0,49400.0,55900.0,49300.0,61100.0,55300.0,47500.0,50000.0,45600.0,45100.0,42700.0,44600.0,55500.0,57400.0,63300.0,55400.0,65600.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,3200.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,3100.0,4000.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,4200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,3200.0,5800.0,4000.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,3200.0,3800.0,4800.0,3600.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,3000.0,3300.0,4600.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,3100.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[37400.0,30600.0,28900.0,32300.0,35700.0,36000.0,38500.0,36700.0,38100.0,33300.0,32300.0,44900.0,40700.0,33300.0,31500.0,35200.0,38900.0,37000.0,40700.0,40000.0,41400.0,36300.0,35200.0,48800.0,46200.0,37800.0,35700.0,39900.0,44100.0,42000.0,46200.0,61200.0,54100.0,41200.0,39900.0,55400.0,50600.0,41400.0,39100.0,43700.0,48300.0,46000.0,50600.0,49700.0,51500.0,45100.0,43700.0,60700.0,55000.0,45000.0,52000.0,57000.0,65600.0,60000.0,63300.0,62100.0,61600.0,49000.0,47500.0,68000.0,60500.0,49500.0,46800.0,52300.0,57800.0,55000.0,60500.0,59400.0,61600.0,53900.0,52300.0,72600.0,132000.0,86400.0,58700.0,57000.0,63000.0,60000.0,66000.0,64800.0,67200.0,58800.0,57000.0,79200.0,78600.0,140000.0,100000.0,71000.0,68300.0,65000.0,71500.0,70200.0,72800.0,63700.0,61800.0,85800.0,74800.0,61200.0,57800.0,64600.0,121000.0,85000.0,74800.0,73400.0,76200.0,66600.0,64600.0,89800.0,77000.0,63000.0,59500.0,66500.0,73500.0,70000.0,77000.0,75600.0,78400.0,68600.0,66500.0,92400.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2750.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,2850.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3600.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3800.0,5200.0,10500.0,6200.0,4200.0,3700.0,3900.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4200.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4500.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4100.0,26000.0,9000.0,6200.0,4800.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4300.0,5000.0,18000.0,9500.0,6200.0,4700.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4200.0,4600.0,5000.0,4400.0,7200.0,5200.0,4500.0,4200.0,4800.0,4300.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4600.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,4400.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[6000.0,5800.0,6000.0,5900.0,5600.0,5000.0,4700.0,4800.0,5300.0,8500.0,6000.0,5200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5300.0,5100.0,4700.0,4400.0,4500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,7800.0,5300.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,4400.0,4200.0,4300.0,4700.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,5200.0,6500.0,6800.0,6000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,14000.0,9000.0,7000.0,6200.0,5800.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,4800.0,12000.0,16000.0,9000.0,6500.0,5800.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5300.0,5000.0,4800.0,7000.0,6200.0,5800.0,5500.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,5000.0,4700.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0]}},{"title":"Ria Money Transfer","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Ria Money Transfer\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[2042,2011,2235,2122,2102,2284,2788,3132,2919,2874,2901,2748,3102,2917,3388,3378,3345,3315,3443,3660,3739,3579,3971,3628,4252,3959,4451,4529,5265,4682,5056,5807,5454,6041,6152,6065,6788,5729,5842,5786,7729,7607,8304,9161,8432,9699,11399,12765,11512,10181,11949,12327,10568,7859,8259,8092,7238,6510,6634,8720,6914,6607,7162,6783,6594,6357,6392,6741,7073,7208,6581,6375,6945,6981,8616,8054,7884,7716,8583,9367,8988,8693,7841,7079,6606,6169,8258,7642,6847,9186,12885,10929,9854,6911,7573,12128,11987,6756,7351,7240,7061,6671,6669,6209,6656,6272,5907,7886,7433,5455,6755,5406,5678,5145,5402,5078,4939,5989,5073,5327],"flat_reference_value":17053.483120346467,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[2600.0,2500.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2850.0,3100.0,3150.0,2950.0,3000.0,2900.0,3050.0,3200.0,2950.0,3250.0,3100.0,3350.0,3300.0,3450.0,3550.0,3300.0,3450.0,3350.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3650.0,3500.0,3750.0,3650.0,3850.0,3900.0,3650.0,3800.0,3700.0,3850.0,3950.0,3650.0,3950.0,3900.0,4150.0,4000.0,4250.0,4300.0,4050.0,4200.0,4100.0,4250.0,4350.0,4050.0,4500.0,4750.0,4850.0,4600.0,4800.0,4750.0,4550.0,4700.0,4550.0,4800.0,4900.0,4550.0,5000.0,4800.0,5050.0,5000.0,5200.0,5250.0,4950.0,5100.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,6100.0,5550.0,5650.0,5500.0,5700.0,5800.0,5500.0,5700.0,5500.0,5750.0,5900.0,5450.0,6000.0,5700.0,6100.0,6000.0,6250.0,6300.0,6000.0,6150.0,6000.0,6250.0,6400.0,6000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6600.0,6450.0,6750.0,6800.0,6450.0,6650.0,6450.0,6700.0,6900.0,6400.0,7000.0,6750.0,7100.0,6950.0,7250.0,7300.0,6900.0,7150.0,6900.0,7200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[3650.0,3420.0,3780.0,3810.0,4050.0,3920.0,4100.0,4180.0,4020.0,4150.0,4220.0,4380.0,4310.0,4010.0,4490.0,4380.0,4690.0,4560.0,4720.0,4850.0,4680.0,4890.0,4950.0,5120.0,5080.0,4710.0,5260.0,5190.0,5480.0,5320.0,5510.0,5640.0,5420.0,5690.0,5780.0,5940.0,5890.0,5450.0,6050.0,5980.0,6290.0,6110.0,6340.0,6420.0,6250.0,6480.0,8950.0,7420.0,7150.0,8340.0,9620.0,7850.0,8190.0,7740.0,7680.0,8410.0,7390.0,7520.0,7460.0,7790.0,7580.0,7120.0,7890.0,7450.0,7820.0,7360.0,7490.0,7550.0,7280.0,7610.0,7490.0,7680.0,7390.0,7150.0,8450.0,7780.0,7690.0,7320.0,7410.0,7380.0,7120.0,7250.0,7080.0,7290.0,7140.0,6580.0,7190.0,6890.0,7120.0,6780.0,6850.0,6910.0,6620.0,6740.0,6590.0,6710.0,6540.0,6080.0,6490.0,6280.0,6450.0,6120.0,6190.0,6150.0,5890.0,5960.0,5820.0,5940.0,5780.0,5310.0,5720.0,5560.0,5740.0,5480.0,5520.0,5490.0,5290.0,5380.0,5240.0,5390.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[1750.0,1680.0,1850.0,1790.0,1920.0,1880.0,1950.0,2010.0,1980.0,2100.0,2050.0,2150.0,2200.0,2080.0,2350.0,2280.0,2390.0,2310.0,2420.0,2480.0,2410.0,2550.0,2490.0,2600.0,2650.0,2480.0,2780.0,2710.0,2850.0,2790.0,2910.0,2980.0,2920.0,3100.0,3020.0,3150.0,3200.0,2980.0,3350.0,3280.0,3420.0,3380.0,3510.0,3600.0,3490.0,3650.0,3580.0,3720.0,3750.0,3550.0,4300.0,4550.0,4400.0,4100.0,4150.0,4220.0,4080.0,4250.0,4180.0,4320.0,4350.0,4050.0,4500.0,4380.0,4490.0,4410.0,4520.0,4610.0,4470.0,4650.0,4510.0,4600.0,4550.0,4180.0,4620.0,4450.0,4580.0,4420.0,4560.0,4680.0,4490.0,4590.0,4430.0,4480.0,4450.0,4080.0,4490.0,4310.0,4400.0,4250.0,4380.0,4450.0,4290.0,4380.0,4220.0,4310.0,4280.0,3950.0,4320.0,4150.0,4240.0,4100.0,4190.0,4250.0,4080.0,4160.0,4020.0,4090.0,4050.0,3750.0,4120.0,3980.0,4050.0,3920.0,3990.0,4060.0,3910.0,3990.0,3880.0,3950.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[2300.0,2200.0,2350.0,2250.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2350.0,2250.0,2500.0,2450.0,2900.0,3100.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2450.0,2800.0,2700.0,2850.0,2750.0,2700.0,2600.0,2550.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2850.0,2700.0,3000.0,2900.0,3050.0,2950.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2850.0,2950.0,3050.0,3050.0,2900.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3250.0,3300.0,3300.0,3150.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3450.0,3350.0,3300.0,3350.0,3450.0,3550.0,3600.0,3400.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,3650.0,3550.0,3450.0,3400.0,3450.0,3550.0,3650.0,3650.0,3450.0,3700.0,3550.0,3700.0,3550.0,3500.0,3400.0,3350.0,3400.0,3450.0,3550.0,3550.0,3350.0,3550.0,3400.0,3500.0,3350.0,3300.0,3150.0,3100.0,3150.0,3200.0,3250.0,3250.0,3050.0,3200.0,3050.0,3150.0,3000.0,2950.0,2800.0,2750.0,2800.0,2850.0,2900.0,2900.0,2750.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[2900.0,2850.0,3000.0,2950.0,3050.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3150.0,3250.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3650.0,3800.0,3900.0,3850.0,4000.0,3950.0,3800.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4250.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0,4900.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,5200.0,5300.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,5100.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,5300.0,5500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,4900.0,4900.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,4200.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[2100.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1900.0,2000.0,2400.0,2200.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,2000.0,1950.0,2000.0,2100.0,2700.0,2300.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2300.0,5500.0,3800.0,2700.0,2600.0,3200.0,2800.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2700.0,3600.0,3000.0,2700.0,2700.0,3400.0,3000.0,2700.0,4200.0,3800.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,4000.0,3400.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,4200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,4300.0,3800.0,3400.0,5600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,4400.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,4600.0,4000.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,4000.0,4600.0,5000.0,4400.0,4300.0,5000.0,4500.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,8500.0,6000.0,6500.0,5500.0,6000.0,38000.0,16000.0,11000.0,8500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,6300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3320.0,2890.0,3210.0,2885.0,3155.0,2830.0,2985.0,2905.0,3040.0,3225.0,3055.0,3610.0,3650.0,3015.0,3480.0,3150.0,3395.0,3080.0,3245.0,3150.0,3285.0,3350.0,3430.0,3890.0,3980.0,3290.0,3785.0,3420.0,3710.0,3355.0,3520.0,3440.0,3570.0,3795.0,3610.0,4255.0,4300.0,3565.0,4090.0,3715.0,4010.0,5180.0,3680.0,3850.0,3720.0,4105.0,3915.0,4590.0,4780.0,4120.0,4620.0,6850.0,5430.0,4050.0,4235.0,4150.0,4290.0,4550.0,4365.0,5120.0,5110.0,4255.0,4860.0,4435.0,4760.0,4340.0,4525.0,4440.0,4575.0,4865.0,4670.0,5455.0,5480.0,4580.0,5225.0,4765.0,5115.0,4660.0,4855.0,4780.0,4910.0,5220.0,5020.0,5860.0,5810.0,4855.0,5530.0,5050.0,5415.0,4945.0,5140.0,5070.0,5195.0,5535.0,5320.0,6205.0,6075.0,5270.0,5785.0,5290.0,5665.0,5180.0,5375.0,5310.0,5435.0,5780.0,5570.0,6490.0,6340.0,5315.0,6035.0,5530.0,5915.0,5415.0,5615.0,5550.0,5675.0,6040.0,5825.0,6780.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3100.0,2800.0,2950.0,2900.0,3050.0,3250.0,3450.0,3300.0,3100.0,3250.0,3700.0,4600.0,3500.0,3200.0,3350.0,3300.0,3500.0,3750.0,3950.0,3800.0,5200.0,5600.0,4400.0,5300.0,4100.0,3800.0,3950.0,3900.0,4100.0,4400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,5100.0,6400.0,4700.0,4300.0,4500.0,4450.0,4700.0,5000.0,5350.0,5100.0,4900.0,5150.0,5800.0,7300.0,5400.0,5000.0,7600.0,9200.0,7200.0,6000.0,5900.0,5700.0,5500.0,5800.0,6600.0,8400.0,6200.0,5700.0,6000.0,5900.0,6300.0,6700.0,7100.0,6800.0,6500.0,6800.0,7800.0,9800.0,7100.0,6600.0,7000.0,6900.0,7300.0,7800.0,8300.0,7900.0,7500.0,7800.0,8800.0,11000.0,8200.0,7600.0,7900.0,7800.0,8300.0,8900.0,9500.0,9000.0,8600.0,8900.0,10100.0,12700.0,9600.0,8900.0,9300.0,9200.0,9800.0,10500.0,11300.0,10700.0,10200.0,10600.0,12100.0,15200.0,11200.0,10400.0,10800.0,10900.0,12600.0,15400.0,17200.0,13600.0,12100.0,12400.0,14000.0,18200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1800.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,2150.0,2050.0,1950.0,1950.0,2000.0,2050.0,2200.0,2450.0,1950.0,2000.0,2150.0,2100.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2350.0,2600.0,2100.0,2150.0,2300.0,2250.0,2550.0,2400.0,2250.0,2250.0,2300.0,2350.0,2500.0,2800.0,2250.0,2300.0,2450.0,2400.0,2700.0,2550.0,2400.0,2400.0,2450.0,2500.0,2650.0,3000.0,2500.0,2550.0,3800.0,4300.0,3600.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,2950.0,3100.0,3450.0,2850.0,2900.0,3150.0,3100.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3250.0,3450.0,3800.0,3150.0,3200.0,3450.0,3400.0,3850.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3500.0,3550.0,3750.0,4150.0,3450.0,3500.0,3750.0,3700.0,4150.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3850.0,4050.0,4500.0,3700.0,3750.0,4000.0,3950.0,4450.0,4200.0,4050.0,4050.0,4150.0,4200.0,4400.0,4850.0,3950.0,4000.0,4250.0,4200.0,4700.0,4450.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4450.0,4650.0,5100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[511.0,562.0,577.0,607.0,625.0,689.0,687.0,696.0,583.0,664.0,971.0,1028.0,589.0,574.0,659.0,647.0,735.0,725.0,769.0,720.0,707.0,659.0,734.0,833.0,638.0,693.0,691.0,734.0,779.0,850.0,806.0,818.0,735.0,796.0,786.0,956.0,744.0,726.0,808.0,848.0,848.0,954.0,934.0,945.0,816.0,867.0,964.0,1052.0,893.0,942.0,1369.0,1298.0,1069.0,1167.0,1164.0,1157.0,998.0,1103.0,1134.0,1365.0,983.0,1070.0,1088.0,1144.0,1264.0,1285.0,1361.0,1236.0,1227.0,1155.0,1287.0,1475.0,1084.0,1485.0,1919.0,1411.0,1446.0,1440.0,1529.0,1404.0,1263.0,1224.0,1391.0,1563.0,1113.0,1212.0,1283.0,1270.0,1460.0,1485.0,1467.0,1487.0,1337.0,1432.0,1428.0,2727.0,1288.0,1267.0,1975.0,1469.0,1544.0,1700.0,1629.0,2025.0,1515.0,1484.0,1652.0,1856.0,1374.0,1925.0,2116.0,1882.0,1750.0,1760.0,1903.0,1764.0,1683.0,1616.0,1782.0,2104.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[458.0,499.0,530.0,520.0,582.0,530.0,489.0,494.0,551.0,520.0,551.0,718.0,493.0,538.0,571.0,560.0,627.0,571.0,526.0,532.0,594.0,560.0,594.0,773.0,528.0,576.0,612.0,600.0,672.0,612.0,564.0,570.0,636.0,600.0,636.0,828.0,572.0,624.0,663.0,650.0,728.0,663.0,611.0,618.0,689.0,650.0,689.0,897.0,642.0,701.0,1117.0,1241.0,1186.0,931.0,755.0,728.0,774.0,730.0,774.0,1007.0,713.0,778.0,826.0,810.0,907.0,826.0,761.0,770.0,859.0,810.0,859.0,1118.0,783.0,983.0,1316.0,1157.0,1146.0,953.0,837.0,846.0,943.0,890.0,943.0,1228.0,827.0,902.0,959.0,940.0,1053.0,959.0,884.0,893.0,996.0,940.0,996.0,1297.0,871.0,950.0,1010.0,990.0,1109.0,1010.0,931.0,941.0,1049.0,990.0,1049.0,1366.0,906.0,989.0,1051.0,1030.0,1154.0,1051.0,968.0,979.0,1092.0,1030.0,1092.0,1421.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1390.0,1310.0,1360.0,1290.0,1280.0,1240.0,1200.0,1235.0,1320.0,1380.0,1425.0,1490.0,1520.0,1370.0,1400.0,1350.0,1330.0,1430.0,1260.0,1300.0,1370.0,1410.0,1490.0,1530.0,1510.0,1450.0,1560.0,1430.0,1420.0,1370.0,1290.0,1360.0,1470.0,1530.0,1570.0,1610.0,1680.0,1520.0,1570.0,1510.0,1490.0,1450.0,1390.0,1480.0,1530.0,1600.0,1650.0,1700.0,1900.0,1800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2200.0,1950.0,1850.0,1950.0,2050.0,2200.0,2250.0,2100.0,2400.0,2200.0,2250.0,2150.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2150.0,2250.0,2350.0,2500.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,2050.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,2100.0,2250.0,2250.0,2150.0,2800.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1850.0,1800.0,2000.0,1950.0,2050.0,2100.0,2200.0,2050.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,2100.0,1850.0,1950.0,2050.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,1950.0,1850.0,1800.0,1950.0,2050.0,2150.0,2250.0,2200.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[520.0,500.0,520.0,510.0,520.0,500.0,510.0,520.0,500.0,510.0,520.0,560.0,540.0,500.0,520.0,500.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,510.0,550.0,520.0,490.0,500.0,490.0,500.0,480.0,490.0,500.0,470.0,490.0,500.0,540.0,510.0,480.0,490.0,480.0,490.0,470.0,480.0,490.0,460.0,480.0,490.0,530.0,510.0,480.0,520.0,560.0,540.0,520.0,520.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,500.0,550.0,530.0,490.0,510.0,490.0,500.0,480.0,490.0,490.0,470.0,480.0,490.0,530.0,500.0,470.0,480.0,460.0,470.0,450.0,460.0,470.0,440.0,460.0,460.0,500.0,470.0,440.0,460.0,440.0,450.0,430.0,440.0,450.0,420.0,440.0,440.0,480.0,450.0,420.0,440.0,420.0,430.0,410.0,420.0,430.0,400.0,420.0,420.0,460.0,430.0,400.0,420.0,400.0,410.0,390.0,400.0,410.0,380.0,400.0,400.0,440.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[9500.0,8800.0,8700.0,8300.0,8400.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,8600.0,8800.0,9200.0,9800.0,10200.0,9400.0,9200.0,8900.0,9000.0,9200.0,8600.0,8400.0,9100.0,9400.0,9800.0,10500.0,11200.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9600.0,9800.0,9100.0,8900.0,9700.0,10000.0,10500.0,11400.0,12000.0,10800.0,10500.0,10100.0,10200.0,12500.0,10700.0,9500.0,10400.0,11000.0,12000.0,13500.0,13800.0,12400.0,15500.0,14300.0,12100.0,12300.0,11200.0,10200.0,11300.0,12000.0,13300.0,15200.0,14500.0,12700.0,12800.0,12100.0,12200.0,12800.0,11600.0,10800.0,11900.0,12600.0,14200.0,16200.0,15000.0,13300.0,30000.0,18000.0,13400.0,13700.0,12400.0,11600.0,12800.0,13800.0,15600.0,17500.0,16200.0,14300.0,13900.0,13200.0,13400.0,14000.0,16800.0,12400.0,13600.0,14800.0,16900.0,19200.0,17300.0,15200.0,14900.0,14200.0,14400.0,15000.0,13700.0,12800.0,14100.0,15500.0,17800.0,20500.0,19200.0,17000.0,16600.0,15800.0,22500.0,20000.0,15200.0,14000.0,15500.0,17000.0,19500.0,23000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[482.0,451.0,508.0,476.0,493.0,522.0,470.0,498.0,515.0,489.0,474.0,530.0,510.0,488.0,542.0,519.0,527.0,558.0,501.0,536.0,549.0,525.0,511.0,572.0,534.0,510.0,581.0,547.0,563.0,612.0,529.0,568.0,590.0,558.0,545.0,624.0,577.0,551.0,635.0,588.0,602.0,681.0,566.0,610.0,649.0,597.0,585.0,704.0,652.0,618.0,711.0,802.0,861.0,948.0,829.0,793.0,846.0,777.0,741.0,881.0,764.0,723.0,817.0,788.0,834.0,902.0,771.0,813.0,862.0,801.0,779.0,926.0,798.0,742.0,856.0,817.0,850.0,919.0,784.0,829.0,887.0,812.0,790.0,943.0,832.0,781.0,891.0,848.0,879.0,956.0,823.0,869.0,924.0,847.0,825.0,982.0,871.0,816.0,929.0,883.0,916.0,991.0,852.0,902.0,956.0,879.0,858.0,1018.0,904.0,847.0,964.0,917.0,949.0,1028.0,886.0,936.0,995.0,913.0,889.0,1057.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[441.0,441.0,441.0,420.0,420.0,399.0,386.0,386.0,420.0,433.0,433.0,399.0,473.0,473.0,473.0,450.0,450.0,428.0,414.0,414.0,450.0,464.0,464.0,428.0,588.0,588.0,588.0,560.0,560.0,532.0,515.0,515.0,560.0,577.0,577.0,532.0,672.0,672.0,672.0,640.0,640.0,608.0,589.0,589.0,640.0,659.0,659.0,608.0,819.0,819.0,819.0,780.0,780.0,741.0,718.0,718.0,780.0,803.0,803.0,741.0,735.0,735.0,735.0,700.0,700.0,665.0,644.0,644.0,700.0,721.0,721.0,665.0,683.0,683.0,683.0,650.0,650.0,618.0,598.0,598.0,650.0,670.0,670.0,618.0,630.0,630.0,630.0,600.0,600.0,570.0,552.0,552.0,600.0,618.0,618.0,570.0,567.0,567.0,567.0,540.0,540.0,513.0,497.0,497.0,540.0,556.0,556.0,513.0,504.0,504.0,504.0,480.0,480.0,456.0,442.0,442.0,480.0,494.0,494.0,456.0]}},{"title":"Biwi No.1","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Biwi No.1\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[12171,9294,11021,9403,11392,11246,13078,10744,9129,8783,9238,10993,11171,11279,13063,11833,11332,11881,11424,11963,11547,15115,10370,15073,13303,11502,14092,12364,12423,11754,15108,17286,13940,13628,13767,12543,12338,9032,10093,9931,11938,11631,10904,12194,14615,14548,14165,9623,10182,9250,13959,20622,17089,14150,14081,9625,8504,14686,10121,16299,12949,8541,8787,9759,14682,13338,11712,10039,8845,9973,8744,9841,10601,8389,10090,9387,9585,11180,14289,10808,9873,9531,9689,8688,11065,10842,11199,10895,11462,12298,11495,12764,12417,10994,11237,13769,14664,12717,11978,12143,15198,13008,12805,13130,14266,16749,18135,15437,14640,11103,11771,12118,12372,11160,12647,12842,10860,11802,9268,9027],"flat_reference_value":16994.605972709272,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7800.0,7100.0,7600.0,7400.0,8500.0,8300.0,8900.0,8100.0,7900.0,8400.0,8000.0,9000.0,8700.0,8100.0,8800.0,9000.0,10200.0,9800.0,10100.0,9500.0,11000.0,11600.0,9300.0,10300.0,9700.0,9000.0,10000.0,9800.0,11500.0,11200.0,10800.0,10400.0,10100.0,10700.0,10300.0,11700.0,11200.0,10300.0,11200.0,11400.0,14600.0,13300.0,12400.0,11900.0,11500.0,12100.0,11600.0,13200.0,12500.0,11500.0,13800.0,17600.0,19500.0,18900.0,17800.0,16500.0,15300.0,15000.0,14500.0,17500.0,16000.0,13800.0,15000.0,15800.0,17500.0,16500.0,15700.0,15100.0,14300.0,14700.0,14100.0,15900.0,15300.0,13300.0,14100.0,13900.0,15700.0,15000.0,14800.0,14300.0,13600.0,14500.0,13700.0,15300.0,14800.0,13200.0,14300.0,15300.0,16200.0,15100.0,14700.0,14500.0,14000.0,14600.0,15300.0,15900.0,15000.0,13800.0,14700.0,15100.0,18700.0,16200.0,15400.0,14900.0,14300.0,15300.0,23800.0,36000.0,22000.0,16800.0,16500.0,16900.0,18600.0,19100.0,16800.0,16000.0,15100.0,16000.0,15500.0,17200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[9600.0,8900.0,9500.0,9400.0,10300.0,9900.0,10400.0,10600.0,11200.0,11900.0,11800.0,12600.0,12900.0,11700.0,12800.0,12700.0,13800.0,13400.0,13700.0,14100.0,16800.0,17200.0,14200.0,14500.0,14600.0,13100.0,14200.0,14000.0,16400.0,15800.0,14700.0,14500.0,14100.0,14300.0,14000.0,14800.0,14900.0,13400.0,14500.0,14400.0,18600.0,15900.0,14800.0,15100.0,14600.0,15000.0,14700.0,15200.0,15100.0,13900.0,17600.0,23400.0,24100.0,21800.0,19600.0,18700.0,17500.0,17200.0,18400.0,23200.0,18600.0,15100.0,15800.0,17900.0,19400.0,17200.0,16100.0,15600.0,14800.0,14900.0,14600.0,15000.0,15200.0,13300.0,14000.0,13600.0,14700.0,13800.0,17800.0,14500.0,13400.0,13600.0,13100.0,13700.0,13800.0,12200.0,14600.0,12800.0,13500.0,12600.0,12900.0,13100.0,12400.0,12500.0,13700.0,13200.0,12900.0,11800.0,12700.0,12100.0,16800.0,13200.0,12400.0,12600.0,12100.0,12500.0,26500.0,23800.0,14600.0,11200.0,11600.0,11100.0,12300.0,11300.0,11400.0,11500.0,10800.0,11000.0,11200.0,11600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[13420.0,12150.0,11890.0,12430.0,13110.0,12760.0,13850.0,12940.0,11620.0,13080.0,12340.0,13910.0,14120.0,12870.0,13450.0,13190.0,14030.0,14620.0,14210.0,13890.0,15740.0,16420.0,14350.0,15110.0,15480.0,13720.0,14260.0,14610.0,15830.0,16120.0,15340.0,14970.0,14410.0,15630.0,15180.0,16840.0,16210.0,14890.0,15370.0,16120.0,21850.0,23410.0,17890.0,16540.0,15210.0,16730.0,15980.0,17450.0,16820.0,15430.0,19250.0,26840.0,28120.0,24350.0,21670.0,19430.0,18210.0,19050.0,21420.0,24960.0,20850.0,17340.0,16910.0,18760.0,19840.0,17620.0,16980.0,16240.0,15370.0,16480.0,17120.0,18050.0,17430.0,15610.0,15120.0,15890.0,16740.0,16180.0,15920.0,15210.0,14380.0,15720.0,15240.0,16390.0,16040.0,14210.0,14850.0,15230.0,16110.0,15670.0,15420.0,14780.0,14190.0,15060.0,15840.0,16720.0,16250.0,14830.0,15170.0,15620.0,19430.0,18120.0,16480.0,15340.0,14610.0,15290.0,15870.0,16940.0,16410.0,14520.0,14890.0,15310.0,16080.0,15740.0,15230.0,14650.0,14120.0,14870.0,15340.0,16210.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[18500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17200.0,18200.0,17800.0,17000.0,16800.0,16500.0,17200.0,17000.0,17500.0,17800.0,16000.0,16500.0,16200.0,17000.0,16500.0,15800.0,15500.0,15200.0,15800.0,15500.0,15800.0,16000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14800.0,15200.0,14800.0,14200.0,14000.0,13800.0,14200.0,14000.0,14300.0,14500.0,13200.0,13800.0,13600.0,15500.0,14000.0,13200.0,13000.0,12800.0,13300.0,13100.0,13400.0,13500.0,12600.0,14500.0,18500.0,17500.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,12800.0,12600.0,12400.0,12500.0,12500.0,11300.0,11600.0,12200.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10800.0,10500.0,10700.0,10600.0,10700.0,10800.0,9800.0,10200.0,10000.0,10300.0,9900.0,9600.0,9500.0,9300.0,9600.0,9400.0,9500.0,9600.0,8800.0,9100.0,9000.0,9200.0,8900.0,8700.0,8600.0,8400.0,8700.0,8600.0,8700.0,8800.0,8100.0,8400.0,8300.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,7900.0,7700.0,8000.0,7900.0,8000.0,8100.0,7500.0,7800.0,7700.0,7900.0,10500.0,9000.0,7800.0,7400.0,7600.0,7500.0,7600.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[17500.0,16500.0,16800.0,17000.0,17800.0,17500.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18500.0,19500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18500.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,18500.0,19500.0,20000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19000.0,19500.0,20500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,19500.0,19500.0,17500.0,18500.0,18500.0,21500.0,21000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,18500.0,19500.0,19500.0,18500.0,21000.0,27000.0,27500.0,24500.0,23500.0,22500.0,21000.0,20500.0,20500.0,24500.0,22500.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,22000.0,20500.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,27000.0,24000.0,16500.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3550.0,3420.0,3610.0,3480.0,3590.0,3510.0,3460.0,3630.0,3440.0,3570.0,3490.0,3810.0,3620.0,3390.0,3470.0,3350.0,3440.0,3310.0,3380.0,3520.0,3290.0,3410.0,3300.0,3580.0,3520.0,3340.0,3410.0,3280.0,3390.0,3250.0,3310.0,3430.0,3220.0,3350.0,3240.0,3490.0,3360.0,3180.0,3270.0,3780.0,3150.0,3240.0,3100.0,3190.0,3050.0,3140.0,3030.0,3270.0,3150.0,2980.0,3070.0,2950.0,3040.0,4250.0,3300.0,3120.0,3050.0,3140.0,3030.0,6100.0,4400.0,3150.0,2980.0,2850.0,2920.0,2780.0,2840.0,2720.0,2760.0,2680.0,2640.0,2890.0,2760.0,2600.0,2680.0,2560.0,2630.0,2540.0,2590.0,2500.0,2540.0,2470.0,2430.0,2640.0,2570.0,2440.0,3850.0,2520.0,2470.0,2430.0,2460.0,3050.0,2400.0,2430.0,2390.0,3320.0,2540.0,2410.0,4780.0,4420.0,2520.0,2460.0,2430.0,2410.0,2390.0,4650.0,3120.0,2760.0,6350.0,3320.0,2610.0,2520.0,2470.0,7280.0,4730.0,3480.0,2580.0,2510.0,2460.0,2680.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2789.0,2312.0,2684.0,2428.0,2705.0,2561.0,3524.0,2713.0,2398.0,2577.0,2531.0,2862.0,2734.0,2268.0,2615.0,2379.0,2642.0,2520.0,2778.0,2601.0,2324.0,2510.0,2663.0,3318.0,3045.0,2198.0,2543.0,2312.0,2587.0,3089.0,2724.0,2441.0,2286.0,2479.0,2594.0,2741.0,2612.0,2156.0,2483.0,2250.0,2788.0,3021.0,2645.0,2389.0,2214.0,2418.0,2523.0,2937.0,2558.0,2102.0,2794.0,2812.0,2735.0,2498.0,2581.0,2320.0,2167.0,2364.0,2471.0,2623.0,2496.0,2038.0,2345.0,2131.0,2764.0,2428.0,2513.0,2269.0,2104.0,2298.0,2405.0,2562.0,2431.0,1978.0,2284.0,2073.0,2326.0,2369.0,2457.0,2203.0,2046.0,2241.0,2348.0,2490.0,2375.0,1921.0,4728.0,2894.0,2543.0,2308.0,2396.0,2142.0,1987.0,2180.0,2958.0,2691.0,2314.0,1863.0,2167.0,2932.0,2589.0,2246.0,2335.0,2081.0,1928.0,3614.0,2798.0,2382.0,2256.0,1802.0,2487.0,1993.0,2145.0,4387.0,2761.0,2024.0,1871.0,2062.0,2168.0,2319.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,2900.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,3000.0,3400.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3100.0,3800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2900.0,3900.0,3200.0,3600.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,3600.0,3900.0,4300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3300.0,3200.0,3900.0,3300.0,3100.0,3600.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4400.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3900.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,7500.0,5200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4000.0,5200.0,5800.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,5400.0,4400.0,4300.0,5600.0,4600.0,4300.0,4200.0,5200.0,5000.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4500.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,5400.0,5200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4600.0,4900.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[420.0,450.0,480.0,460.0,500.0,620.0,1150.0,700.0,560.0,540.0,650.0,1450.0,700.0,620.0,600.0,580.0,610.0,850.0,700.0,650.0,620.0,640.0,760.0,1550.0,800.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,720.0,1250.0,850.0,780.0,740.0,760.0,880.0,1650.0,900.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,820.0,1000.0,900.0,860.0,840.0,880.0,980.0,1950.0,1100.0,1000.0,1400.0,2900.0,2200.0,1600.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1350.0,2250.0,1500.0,1200.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,920.0,1050.0,1850.0,1200.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,920.0,1150.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,900.0,1050.0,1750.0,1150.0,1000.0,980.0,950.0,980.0,1450.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,1020.0,1150.0,1950.0,1250.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1020.0,1300.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1650.0,1850.0,1200.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,1000.0,1250.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,1000.0,1100.0,1750.0],"meta/muse-ember":[172.0,167.0,196.0,209.0,215.0,222.0,326.0,178.0,174.0,196.0,202.0,191.0,191.0,185.0,217.0,232.0,238.0,381.0,226.0,197.0,193.0,217.0,223.0,211.0,214.0,207.0,244.0,260.0,267.0,414.0,253.0,221.0,216.0,244.0,251.0,237.0,237.0,230.0,270.0,288.0,296.0,734.0,281.0,245.0,240.0,270.0,278.0,263.0,279.0,270.0,509.0,495.0,348.0,792.0,462.0,288.0,282.0,318.0,327.0,309.0,312.0,302.0,355.0,379.0,583.0,402.0,369.0,322.0,315.0,355.0,365.0,656.0,335.0,518.0,382.0,407.0,418.0,432.0,396.0,346.0,338.0,382.0,392.0,371.0,367.0,356.0,963.0,625.0,458.0,474.0,435.0,379.0,371.0,419.0,689.0,407.0,400.0,387.0,456.0,486.0,499.0,1290.0,473.0,413.0,404.0,456.0,469.0,443.0,432.0,419.0,493.0,788.0,539.0,949.0,512.0,446.0,437.0,493.0,507.0,479.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[210.0,3200.0,2400.0,1500.0,1050.0,1900.0,1700.0,950.0,1350.0,880.0,1080.0,1250.0,960.0,1050.0,900.0,980.0,1500.0,1400.0,900.0,920.0,1250.0,800.0,1800.0,1050.0,880.0,940.0,800.0,880.0,1300.0,1250.0,780.0,1080.0,700.0,740.0,880.0,1400.0,780.0,1300.0,720.0,800.0,1150.0,1100.0,700.0,980.0,620.0,660.0,800.0,880.0,720.0,800.0,1900.0,3300.0,2700.0,1150.0,950.0,1050.0,640.0,660.0,760.0,850.0,600.0,660.0,580.0,1550.0,1450.0,800.0,1150.0,850.0,560.0,540.0,620.0,700.0,470.0,510.0,440.0,950.0,900.0,440.0,800.0,400.0,380.0,400.0,460.0,510.0,370.0,410.0,720.0,680.0,340.0,620.0,330.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,360.0,400.0,320.0,350.0,640.0,600.0,300.0,540.0,1200.0,2000.0,450.0,290.0,330.0,370.0,290.0,320.0,640.0,270.0,260.0,520.0,250.0,235.0,230.0,240.0,650.0,380.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1320.0,1180.0,1260.0,1150.0,1380.0,1190.0,1570.0,1050.0,1210.0,1510.0,1940.0,2320.0,1260.0,1130.0,1230.0,1110.0,1370.0,1760.0,1460.0,1080.0,1290.0,1580.0,1930.0,2240.0,1390.0,1260.0,1340.0,1220.0,1500.0,1290.0,1660.0,1150.0,1460.0,1770.0,2240.0,2800.0,1510.0,1370.0,1830.0,1450.0,3820.0,1760.0,1810.0,1320.0,1770.0,2200.0,2500.0,3740.0,1720.0,1560.0,1650.0,1500.0,2460.0,1690.0,1990.0,1420.0,1740.0,2130.0,3020.0,3490.0,1700.0,1530.0,1620.0,1480.0,1760.0,1710.0,1950.0,1420.0,1690.0,2090.0,2480.0,3050.0,1940.0,1750.0,1900.0,1730.0,1980.0,1700.0,2010.0,1430.0,1900.0,2310.0,4460.0,3640.0,3320.0,2310.0,2050.0,1880.0,2260.0,2170.0,2300.0,2450.0,3300.0,3540.0,4060.0,4310.0,2480.0,2210.0,2460.0,2230.0,4940.0,2500.0,2880.0,2020.0,2330.0,2830.0,3880.0,4540.0,4730.0,2470.0,2380.0,2160.0,2600.0,2260.0,2640.0,2020.0,2380.0,2920.0,3800.0,4850.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1080.0,780.0,740.0,860.0,790.0,840.0,920.0,880.0,760.0,960.0,850.0,1010.0,1150.0,780.0,830.0,910.0,860.0,880.0,960.0,970.0,840.0,1020.0,900.0,1080.0,1210.0,860.0,840.0,970.0,900.0,950.0,1030.0,980.0,890.0,1060.0,960.0,1120.0,1300.0,920.0,880.0,1010.0,950.0,1030.0,1080.0,1060.0,940.0,1150.0,1000.0,1180.0,1480.0,2300.0,1450.0,1220.0,1700.0,2050.0,1350.0,1310.0,1150.0,1420.0,2200.0,1780.0,1620.0,1180.0,1250.0,1330.0,1270.0,1550.0,1600.0,2800.0,1420.0,1540.0,1390.0,1650.0,1880.0,2600.0,2350.0,1520.0,1420.0,1600.0,1680.0,1760.0,1520.0,1800.0,1650.0,1900.0,1900.0,1500.0,1580.0,1720.0,1650.0,1800.0,1860.0,1900.0,1640.0,1920.0,2800.0,4500.0,2900.0,1700.0,1500.0,1380.0,1420.0,1500.0,1580.0,1620.0,1480.0,1650.0,1600.0,1750.0,1620.0,1250.0,1290.0,1320.0,1280.0,1360.0,1400.0,1440.0,1300.0,1400.0,1320.0,1480.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[230.0,215.0,220.0,205.0,210.0,275.0,230.0,215.0,205.0,210.0,225.0,260.0,220.0,205.0,215.0,200.0,210.0,270.0,225.0,210.0,195.0,200.0,215.0,245.0,210.0,195.0,205.0,190.0,200.0,260.0,215.0,200.0,190.0,195.0,210.0,240.0,205.0,190.0,200.0,185.0,195.0,250.0,210.0,195.0,185.0,190.0,205.0,235.0,220.0,205.0,230.0,280.0,390.0,650.0,420.0,310.0,270.0,250.0,290.0,330.0,230.0,215.0,220.0,205.0,215.0,300.0,245.0,225.0,210.0,215.0,235.0,280.0,225.0,205.0,220.0,205.0,215.0,295.0,240.0,220.0,205.0,210.0,230.0,275.0,240.0,220.0,235.0,215.0,225.0,330.0,270.0,245.0,225.0,235.0,260.0,310.0,260.0,245.0,310.0,360.0,270.0,380.0,290.0,260.0,240.0,250.0,280.0,320.0,250.0,235.0,245.0,230.0,240.0,330.0,270.0,245.0,230.0,235.0,255.0,300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[720.0,690.0,710.0,680.0,660.0,640.0,650.0,630.0,620.0,640.0,610.0,700.0,660.0,640.0,650.0,620.0,600.0,590.0,600.0,580.0,570.0,590.0,560.0,640.0,610.0,600.0,620.0,580.0,560.0,550.0,560.0,540.0,530.0,550.0,520.0,600.0,570.0,560.0,580.0,540.0,520.0,510.0,520.0,500.0,490.0,510.0,480.0,560.0,540.0,530.0,620.0,680.0,640.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,540.0,530.0,510.0,540.0,500.0,490.0,500.0,470.0,460.0,450.0,455.0,440.0,430.0,445.0,420.0,480.0,460.0,450.0,470.0,440.0,425.0,415.0,420.0,405.0,395.0,410.0,385.0,440.0,425.0,415.0,430.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,385.0,370.0,365.0,375.0,355.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,395.0,365.0,355.0,345.0,350.0,335.0,330.0,340.0,320.0,365.0,355.0,345.0,360.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,315.0,300.0,295.0,305.0,285.0,330.0]}},{"title":"Clare of Assisi","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Clare of Assisi\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[13849,14389,14610,13845,12963,11939,12721,26511,14501,20752,16599,11615,13476,13333,17063,13891,12613,12076,12598,27484,12604,19598,15735,13730,14185,13454,16569,14984,14181,12433,13322,28801,13268,18477,14672,11724,12878,11185,13076,13215,12326,11472,12575,23671,12745,19720,14719,15907,13060,11852,12081,12018,10922,9672,11260,39831,11608,18668,14411,11128,11374,11128,12982,12644,11532,10124,11079,35020,10489,15449,12193,9425,10865,10141,11814,10888,10065,9399,10983,31466,10950,16815,12344,10126,12637,11771,14245,12673,13249,12147,14515,37665,14269,21756,17351,14161,16327,15092,17829,18719,14370,12202,13531,25858,14714,20240,16097,14077,16909,14219,16887,21539,19526,14828,15593,37705,16527,21269,17756,13508],"flat_reference_value":16975.59980918482,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[11200.0,10800.0,11900.0,11600.0,12100.0,11500.0,12700.0,24500.0,11900.0,12600.0,11300.0,11800.0,11900.0,11100.0,12300.0,12500.0,12600.0,11900.0,13300.0,25700.0,12300.0,13200.0,11900.0,12400.0,12500.0,11600.0,12900.0,12800.0,13100.0,12300.0,13800.0,26900.0,12800.0,13700.0,12300.0,12900.0,13000.0,12000.0,13400.0,13600.0,13500.0,12700.0,14200.0,27800.0,13200.0,14200.0,12800.0,13300.0,13200.0,12500.0,13000.0,12400.0,12600.0,12000.0,13600.0,26400.0,12600.0,13800.0,12500.0,13000.0,13300.0,12200.0,13600.0,13700.0,13700.0,12900.0,14400.0,28200.0,13500.0,14500.0,13100.0,13600.0,13600.0,12500.0,14000.0,14100.0,14000.0,13200.0,14700.0,28800.0,13900.0,15100.0,13900.0,14500.0,14000.0,12800.0,14300.0,14500.0,14300.0,13400.0,15000.0,29400.0,14000.0,15100.0,13600.0,14100.0,14200.0,13200.0,14800.0,14500.0,14600.0,13600.0,15300.0,30100.0,14200.0,15400.0,13800.0,14400.0,14500.0,13200.0,14800.0,15800.0,15100.0,13800.0,15500.0,30600.0,14500.0,15700.0,14100.0,14600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[23400.0,25800.0,26900.0,26100.0,22300.0,19200.0,19500.0,38400.0,23100.0,29600.0,26800.0,20400.0,23800.0,25400.0,27900.0,25200.0,22700.0,19400.0,19800.0,39100.0,23500.0,30200.0,27100.0,20100.0,23600.0,26200.0,27400.0,25900.0,22100.0,18900.0,19300.0,37800.0,22900.0,29400.0,26400.0,19900.0,23200.0,25100.0,27600.0,25500.0,22400.0,19100.0,19600.0,38600.0,23300.0,29800.0,26700.0,20300.0,23900.0,25700.0,26800.0,28400.0,24600.0,21200.0,21500.0,41900.0,24800.0,31400.0,27900.0,21600.0,24100.0,25300.0,27100.0,25400.0,22200.0,19000.0,19400.0,37900.0,22800.0,28900.0,25900.0,19800.0,22700.0,24200.0,26100.0,24500.0,21400.0,18400.0,18800.0,36500.0,25600.0,28200.0,25100.0,22400.0,22100.0,23400.0,25200.0,23600.0,20500.0,17600.0,18100.0,35100.0,21400.0,27100.0,24200.0,18700.0,20900.0,22300.0,23900.0,22400.0,19600.0,16800.0,17300.0,33400.0,20300.0,25800.0,23100.0,17800.0,19800.0,21100.0,22700.0,21300.0,18600.0,16100.0,16500.0,31800.0,19400.0,24600.0,21900.0,17100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[20450.0,19620.0,21840.0,20120.0,19930.0,18210.0,19450.0,32800.0,21100.0,23450.0,21200.0,18900.0,21300.0,19800.0,22400.0,20950.0,20300.0,18750.0,19800.0,33900.0,21600.0,24100.0,21900.0,19400.0,22100.0,20500.0,23200.0,21800.0,21100.0,19200.0,20400.0,35400.0,22500.0,25100.0,22600.0,20100.0,22800.0,21200.0,23900.0,22400.0,21600.0,19800.0,21100.0,36800.0,23200.0,25900.0,23100.0,20600.0,23100.0,21900.0,25400.0,26100.0,24300.0,21500.0,22300.0,39200.0,24600.0,27200.0,24100.0,21400.0,23900.0,22100.0,24700.0,23200.0,22500.0,20400.0,21900.0,38100.0,24200.0,26800.0,23700.0,21100.0,23400.0,21700.0,24100.0,22800.0,22000.0,19900.0,21400.0,37600.0,23600.0,26200.0,23200.0,20700.0,23800.0,21900.0,24500.0,23100.0,22300.0,20200.0,21700.0,38400.0,23900.0,26500.0,23500.0,20900.0,24100.0,22500.0,24800.0,23400.0,22600.0,20500.0,22000.0,39100.0,24300.0,26900.0,23800.0,21200.0,24200.0,22400.0,25000.0,23600.0,22800.0,20700.0,22200.0,39500.0,24500.0,27100.0,24000.0,21500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[18050.0,19000.0,20900.0,19950.0,19000.0,17100.0,18050.0,25650.0,18050.0,19950.0,18050.0,16150.0,17100.0,18000.0,19800.0,18900.0,18000.0,16200.0,17100.0,24300.0,17100.0,18900.0,17100.0,15300.0,16150.0,17000.0,18700.0,17850.0,17000.0,15300.0,16150.0,22950.0,16150.0,17850.0,16150.0,14450.0,15675.0,16500.0,18150.0,17325.0,16500.0,14850.0,15675.0,22275.0,15675.0,17325.0,15675.0,14025.0,15675.0,16500.0,18500.0,19000.0,17500.0,15000.0,15700.0,22000.0,15500.0,17000.0,15500.0,14000.0,14250.0,15000.0,16500.0,15750.0,15000.0,13500.0,14250.0,20250.0,14250.0,15750.0,14250.0,12750.0,13300.0,14000.0,15400.0,14700.0,14000.0,12600.0,13300.0,18900.0,13300.0,14700.0,13300.0,11900.0,12350.0,13000.0,14300.0,13650.0,13000.0,11700.0,12350.0,17550.0,12350.0,13650.0,12350.0,11050.0,11875.0,12500.0,13750.0,13125.0,12500.0,11250.0,11875.0,16875.0,11875.0,13125.0,11875.0,10625.0,10925.0,11500.0,12650.0,12075.0,11500.0,10350.0,10925.0,15525.0,10925.0,12075.0,10925.0,9775.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,66000.0,31000.0,36000.0,30000.0,26000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,62000.0,29000.0,34000.0,28000.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,57000.0,27000.0,31000.0,26000.0,23000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,54000.0,25000.0,30000.0,25000.0,22000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,29000.0,28000.0,24000.0,24000.0,55000.0,26000.0,30000.0,25000.0,22000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,50000.0,24000.0,28000.0,23000.0,20000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,46000.0,22000.0,26000.0,21000.0,19000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,44000.0,21000.0,25000.0,21000.0,18000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,18000.0,19000.0,43000.0,21000.0,24000.0,20000.0,18000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,24000.0,24000.0,19000.0,20000.0,43000.0,21000.0,24000.0,20000.0,18000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10150.0,9700.0,10200.0,10800.0,10750.0,10500.0,10900.0,16800.0,11050.0,12300.0,10700.0,10300.0,9900.0,9600.0,9850.0,10150.0,10300.0,10000.0,10350.0,16250.0,10450.0,11400.0,9850.0,9800.0,9700.0,9450.0,9650.0,9950.0,10050.0,9850.0,10150.0,15950.0,10250.0,11050.0,9750.0,9650.0,9500.0,9250.0,9450.0,9750.0,9850.0,9600.0,9950.0,15450.0,10050.0,10750.0,9550.0,9400.0,9300.0,9200.0,9800.0,10050.0,9750.0,9400.0,9700.0,14900.0,9800.0,12400.0,9500.0,9600.0,9200.0,8950.0,9100.0,9500.0,9650.0,9400.0,9600.0,14600.0,10050.0,10850.0,9300.0,9450.0,9350.0,9100.0,9250.0,9600.0,9750.0,9500.0,9700.0,14700.0,10500.0,11200.0,9400.0,9300.0,9400.0,9250.0,9450.0,9850.0,9950.0,9750.0,9950.0,15050.0,10250.0,11050.0,9550.0,9500.0,9450.0,9300.0,9500.0,9950.0,10050.0,9850.0,10050.0,15100.0,10350.0,11150.0,9650.0,9600.0,10250.0,10100.0,10350.0,13800.0,13250.0,11050.0,11000.0,16550.0,12600.0,12050.0,10800.0,10700.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[14912.0,13645.0,15820.0,14103.0,15087.0,12744.0,13022.0,20534.0,13789.0,15366.0,13102.0,12145.0,14120.0,12987.0,15244.0,14268.0,13984.0,12903.0,12611.0,19870.0,13912.0,14203.0,13345.0,11890.0,14185.0,12456.0,14792.0,13277.0,14250.0,11984.0,12863.0,19245.0,12894.0,14602.0,12410.0,11532.0,13210.0,12684.0,13722.0,13540.0,13288.0,12172.0,11845.0,18790.0,12560.0,14115.0,12034.0,11208.0,13950.0,13210.0,17540.0,17420.0,16385.0,13520.0,13280.0,20315.0,13650.0,14720.0,13110.0,11840.0,13980.0,12890.0,13960.0,13670.0,13420.0,12340.0,12050.0,18930.0,12740.0,14310.0,12210.0,11390.0,13120.0,11590.0,13680.0,12320.0,13150.0,11080.0,11920.0,17890.0,11950.0,13420.0,11460.0,10680.0,12100.0,11620.0,13110.0,11790.0,12630.0,10640.0,11420.0,18540.0,11490.0,12910.0,10980.0,10240.0,12180.0,11120.0,12680.0,11410.0,11720.0,10810.0,10520.0,16640.0,11100.0,12460.0,10630.0,9890.0,11320.0,10840.0,11750.0,11510.0,11280.0,10420.0,10150.0,16080.0,11520.0,12010.0,10280.0,9550.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5900.0,5750.0,6250.0,6450.0,6700.0,6850.0,8050.0,12750.0,6800.0,7750.0,6450.0,7050.0,6150.0,6050.0,6500.0,6900.0,6750.0,7250.0,8300.0,13400.0,7050.0,8000.0,6950.0,7300.0,6300.0,6200.0,6700.0,7050.0,7100.0,7300.0,8600.0,13750.0,7300.0,8150.0,6950.0,7400.0,6450.0,6350.0,6850.0,7250.0,7050.0,7600.0,8800.0,14100.0,7450.0,8350.0,7250.0,7650.0,6800.0,6750.0,7300.0,7750.0,7650.0,7900.0,9050.0,14600.0,8050.0,8850.0,7600.0,8050.0,6450.0,6550.0,6850.0,7250.0,7350.0,7550.0,8850.0,13900.0,7650.0,8250.0,7050.0,7600.0,6350.0,6300.0,6750.0,7150.0,7250.0,7500.0,8550.0,13600.0,7400.0,8200.0,7150.0,7500.0,6650.0,6600.0,7050.0,7450.0,7400.0,7800.0,9000.0,14250.0,7750.0,8550.0,7400.0,7850.0,6800.0,6900.0,7200.0,7650.0,7600.0,8050.0,9150.0,14800.0,7950.0,8750.0,7500.0,8050.0,7100.0,7050.0,7450.0,9900.0,9150.0,8350.0,9550.0,15500.0,8200.0,8950.0,7750.0,8250.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2000.0,1850.0,2050.0,2100.0,2150.0,2100.0,2300.0,6000.0,2200.0,2350.0,2000.0,2150.0,2050.0,1950.0,2100.0,2200.0,2250.0,2200.0,2400.0,4600.0,2300.0,2450.0,2100.0,2250.0,2150.0,2050.0,2200.0,2250.0,2350.0,2250.0,2500.0,4800.0,2400.0,2550.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2350.0,2450.0,2350.0,2600.0,5000.0,2500.0,2650.0,2250.0,2400.0,2350.0,2250.0,2450.0,2850.0,2600.0,2500.0,2800.0,5300.0,2650.0,3500.0,2400.0,2550.0,2450.0,2350.0,2500.0,2600.0,2650.0,2600.0,2850.0,5450.0,2750.0,2900.0,2500.0,2650.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2750.0,2700.0,2950.0,5650.0,2850.0,3000.0,2600.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2750.0,2850.0,2750.0,3050.0,5850.0,2950.0,3100.0,2650.0,2850.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2850.0,2950.0,2850.0,3150.0,6000.0,3550.0,3300.0,2750.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,4500.0,3700.0,3200.0,3400.0,7200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3000.0,3200.0],"meta/muse-ember":[5824.0,5952.0,6400.0,6656.0,6400.0,6976.0,7296.0,8192.0,9120.0,7465.0,6144.0,5952.0,5733.0,5859.0,6300.0,6552.0,6300.0,6867.0,7182.0,8064.0,7182.0,6804.0,6048.0,5859.0,5642.0,5766.0,6200.0,6448.0,6200.0,6758.0,7068.0,7936.0,7068.0,6696.0,5952.0,5766.0,5551.0,5673.0,6100.0,6344.0,6100.0,6649.0,6954.0,7808.0,6954.0,6588.0,5856.0,5673.0,5642.0,5766.0,7130.0,8382.0,7316.0,7096.0,7068.0,7936.0,7633.0,9040.0,5952.0,5766.0,5460.0,5580.0,6000.0,6240.0,6000.0,6540.0,6840.0,7680.0,6840.0,6480.0,5760.0,5580.0,5324.0,5440.0,5850.0,6084.0,5850.0,6377.0,6669.0,7488.0,6669.0,6318.0,5616.0,5440.0,5187.0,5301.0,5700.0,5928.0,5700.0,6213.0,6498.0,7296.0,6498.0,6156.0,5472.0,5301.0,5096.0,5208.0,5600.0,5824.0,5600.0,6104.0,6384.0,7168.0,7342.0,7137.0,5376.0,5208.0,5005.0,5115.0,5500.0,8294.0,8250.0,7194.0,6772.0,7040.0,6270.0,5940.0,5280.0,5115.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[10800.0,10480.0,11560.0,10910.0,10580.0,10150.0,9720.0,19440.0,10800.0,11450.0,10690.0,9400.0,11200.0,10860.0,11980.0,11310.0,10980.0,10530.0,10080.0,20160.0,11200.0,11870.0,11090.0,9740.0,11600.0,11250.0,12410.0,11720.0,11370.0,10900.0,10440.0,20880.0,11600.0,12300.0,11480.0,10090.0,12100.0,11740.0,12950.0,12220.0,11860.0,11370.0,10890.0,21780.0,12100.0,12830.0,11980.0,10530.0,13600.0,13190.0,14550.0,13740.0,13330.0,12780.0,12240.0,24480.0,13600.0,14420.0,13460.0,11830.0,14200.0,13770.0,15190.0,14340.0,13920.0,13350.0,12780.0,25560.0,14200.0,15050.0,14060.0,12350.0,13700.0,13290.0,14660.0,13840.0,13430.0,12880.0,12330.0,24660.0,13700.0,14520.0,13560.0,11920.0,13100.0,12710.0,14020.0,13230.0,12840.0,12310.0,11790.0,23580.0,13100.0,13890.0,12970.0,12200.0,12600.0,12220.0,13480.0,12730.0,12350.0,11840.0,11340.0,22680.0,13900.0,14600.0,12470.0,10960.0,12100.0,11740.0,12950.0,50000.0,15700.0,11370.0,10890.0,21780.0,12100.0,12830.0,11980.0,10530.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1490.0,1380.0,1470.0,1490.0,1410.0,1340.0,1390.0,1430.0,1510.0,3420.0,1940.0,1430.0,1530.0,1420.0,1520.0,1510.0,1440.0,1370.0,1420.0,1460.0,1540.0,3620.0,2070.0,1480.0,1580.0,1460.0,1590.0,1570.0,1480.0,1410.0,1460.0,1510.0,2450.0,4700.0,2420.0,1540.0,1600.0,1480.0,1610.0,1580.0,1490.0,1420.0,1470.0,1510.0,1580.0,3920.0,2170.0,1560.0,1680.0,1510.0,1680.0,2100.0,1670.0,1510.0,1550.0,1570.0,1650.0,4210.0,2530.0,1660.0,1690.0,1540.0,1710.0,1650.0,1570.0,1490.0,1540.0,1570.0,1690.0,4350.0,2600.0,1680.0,1720.0,1560.0,1740.0,1680.0,1580.0,1510.0,1560.0,1580.0,1730.0,4450.0,2700.0,2050.0,1740.0,1580.0,1760.0,1690.0,1590.0,1520.0,1570.0,1590.0,2350.0,4950.0,2740.0,1730.0,1750.0,1590.0,1780.0,1700.0,1600.0,1530.0,1580.0,1600.0,1770.0,4580.0,2790.0,1750.0,1770.0,1610.0,1800.0,1720.0,1610.0,1540.0,1590.0,1610.0,1790.0,4650.0,2840.0,1770.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,4300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,4400.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,4500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,4500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3700.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,4300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,4200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,4300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,4000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3800.0,3100.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[231.0,223.0,275.0,256.0,240.0,281.0,313.0,1200.0,315.0,290.0,303.0,481.0,275.0,238.0,294.0,275.0,269.0,300.0,338.0,1275.0,325.0,319.0,313.0,519.0,250.0,269.0,325.0,306.0,288.0,319.0,356.0,1400.0,363.0,344.0,338.0,563.0,294.0,288.0,338.0,328.0,313.0,344.0,400.0,1563.0,394.0,375.0,381.0,606.0,335.0,336.0,445.0,425.0,393.0,408.0,435.0,1625.0,435.0,409.0,409.0,660.0,300.0,281.0,335.0,328.0,315.0,344.0,390.0,1475.0,398.0,375.0,373.0,598.0,306.0,313.0,356.0,350.0,328.0,365.0,413.0,1575.0,410.0,394.0,400.0,638.0,338.0,344.0,413.0,400.0,369.0,406.0,456.0,2000.0,481.0,431.0,438.0,713.0,315.0,323.0,373.0,363.0,344.0,378.0,428.0,1650.0,438.0,410.0,415.0,660.0,335.0,340.0,398.0,390.0,370.0,403.0,450.0,1813.0,465.0,438.0,448.0,706.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1020.0,930.0,1010.0,960.0,1000.0,980.0,1130.0,3260.0,1080.0,1010.0,960.0,1000.0,1040.0,970.0,1050.0,1000.0,1020.0,990.0,1160.0,3410.0,1100.0,1030.0,980.0,1020.0,1010.0,940.0,1000.0,970.0,1000.0,970.0,1110.0,3290.0,1050.0,990.0,940.0,980.0,1000.0,930.0,990.0,950.0,970.0,950.0,1090.0,3210.0,1030.0,980.0,930.0,970.0,980.0,920.0,1010.0,1050.0,1030.0,1010.0,1170.0,3500.0,1080.0,1020.0,1000.0,1040.0,970.0,900.0,960.0,940.0,960.0,930.0,1080.0,3290.0,1010.0,960.0,920.0,960.0,930.0,880.0,940.0,910.0,930.0,900.0,1050.0,3160.0,980.0,930.0,890.0,930.0,920.0,870.0,930.0,910.0,940.0,920.0,1070.0,3360.0,1000.0,950.0,910.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,910.0,890.0,920.0,900.0,1040.0,3190.0,970.0,920.0,880.0,920.0,900.0,860.0,930.0,910.0,940.0,920.0,1080.0,3400.0,1000.0,950.0,910.0,960.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2300.0,2300.0,2415.0,2300.0,2185.0,2070.0,2070.0,3680.0,2530.0,2415.0,2300.0,2070.0,2250.0,2250.0,2363.0,2250.0,2138.0,2025.0,2025.0,3600.0,2475.0,2363.0,2250.0,2025.0,2150.0,2150.0,2258.0,2150.0,2043.0,1935.0,1935.0,3440.0,2365.0,2258.0,2150.0,1935.0,2050.0,2050.0,2153.0,2050.0,1948.0,1845.0,1845.0,3280.0,2255.0,2153.0,2050.0,1845.0,2200.0,2200.0,2310.0,2200.0,2090.0,1980.0,1980.0,3520.0,2420.0,2310.0,2200.0,1980.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,3200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1995.0,1900.0,1805.0,1710.0,1710.0,3040.0,2090.0,1995.0,1900.0,1710.0,1800.0,1800.0,1890.0,1800.0,1710.0,1620.0,1620.0,2880.0,1980.0,1890.0,1800.0,1620.0,1650.0,1650.0,1733.0,1650.0,1568.0,1485.0,1485.0,2640.0,1815.0,1733.0,1650.0,1485.0,1400.0,1400.0,1470.0,1400.0,1330.0,1260.0,1260.0,2240.0,1540.0,1470.0,1400.0,1260.0]}},{"title":"Twelve Apostles","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Twelve Apostles\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[14506,13758,21070,13974,13026,11975,10860,10803,11609,12536,11430,14178,13330,11397,13378,19031,12038,10270,10829,10379,10633,11533,11337,13647,13806,11594,18366,20442,12155,11800,11584,11544,10358,11093,10678,12659,11912,10133,11165,18427,11275,9672,9943,10440,10525,11734,10354,11956,12310,10544,11060,21490,12207,9767,10428,10467,9766,10450,9960,12024,11163,8556,11355,13262,10178,9187,10550,10239,10470,11158,10264,11599,12034,11624,13487,19349,13646,10796,11639,11696,11403,12219,11790,15710,17404,13120,15203,21197,13766,12115,13338,14390,13883,15370,13962,15341,16047,13639,17053,15534,13146,11777,12317,12033,12368,13448,12579,17004,15997,13610,15587,41343,33437,12268,12592,13320,13723,13763,12753,13708],"flat_reference_value":16987.287672913488,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[51000.0,49000.0,72000.0,54000.0,49000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,46000.0,49000.0,50000.0,61000.0,52000.0,48000.0,51000.0,73000.0,51000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,50000.0,51000.0,62000.0,53000.0,49000.0,61000.0,66000.0,51000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,48000.0,51000.0,52000.0,63000.0,54000.0,50000.0,53000.0,75000.0,52000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,49000.0,52000.0,53000.0,64000.0,55000.0,51000.0,57000.0,82000.0,57000.0,51000.0,49000.0,49000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,68000.0,58000.0,54000.0,61000.0,76000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,68000.0,58000.0,54000.0,58000.0,80000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,68000.0,58000.0,54000.0,58000.0,80000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,68000.0,57000.0,53000.0,71000.0,67000.0,55000.0,49000.0,47000.0,48000.0,51000.0,54000.0,55000.0,67000.0,56000.0,52000.0,56000.0,78000.0,54000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,50000.0,53000.0,54000.0,66000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[13800.0,14200.0,21400.0,14600.0,13100.0,11800.0,11500.0,11700.0,12600.0,13200.0,13400.0,14800.0,14100.0,13500.0,15200.0,20800.0,13600.0,12000.0,11800.0,11900.0,12700.0,13400.0,13600.0,14900.0,14300.0,13900.0,19600.0,17400.0,13500.0,11900.0,11700.0,11800.0,12800.0,13500.0,13700.0,15100.0,14500.0,13800.0,15100.0,20500.0,13900.0,12300.0,12100.0,12200.0,13100.0,13700.0,13900.0,15400.0,15200.0,14600.0,17200.0,25400.0,17800.0,15400.0,15100.0,15300.0,15600.0,16100.0,16300.0,17600.0,17100.0,16200.0,19800.0,24200.0,17900.0,16600.0,15800.0,15200.0,15400.0,15900.0,16100.0,17500.0,16800.0,15700.0,17100.0,22800.0,16200.0,14800.0,14600.0,14700.0,15300.0,15900.0,16400.0,18600.0,18900.0,17800.0,18700.0,23900.0,17200.0,16100.0,16400.0,17500.0,22000.0,48000.0,89000.0,118000.0,116000.0,126000.0,186000.0,144000.0,114000.0,121000.0,136000.0,124000.0,110000.0,113000.0,114000.0,123000.0,117000.0,112000.0,138000.0,208000.0,135000.0,129000.0,111000.0,106000.0,104000.0,107000.0,109000.0,118000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[73200.0,71800.0,98500.0,76400.0,74100.0,62300.0,59800.0,61400.0,72900.0,75600.0,77100.0,74500.0,76800.0,72400.0,81200.0,103400.0,75300.0,63900.0,61100.0,62800.0,73700.0,76900.0,78500.0,75800.0,78200.0,73900.0,105600.0,82400.0,76100.0,64500.0,62100.0,63700.0,74400.0,77800.0,79200.0,76300.0,79500.0,74600.0,84100.0,108300.0,77200.0,65100.0,63200.0,64800.0,75900.0,78900.0,80400.0,77500.0,80800.0,76500.0,89200.0,118400.0,84700.0,69300.0,67400.0,68900.0,79600.0,83100.0,84500.0,81900.0,85400.0,80200.0,94800.0,112100.0,82600.0,68500.0,66100.0,67800.0,78700.0,82400.0,83900.0,80600.0,83500.0,77900.0,86300.0,114500.0,81400.0,67200.0,65300.0,66900.0,77500.0,80800.0,82100.0,79400.0,82800.0,76400.0,85100.0,111800.0,79600.0,66400.0,64200.0,65800.0,76300.0,79500.0,81200.0,78600.0,81900.0,77300.0,110200.0,83400.0,78500.0,65100.0,63400.0,64700.0,75100.0,78200.0,79800.0,77100.0,80500.0,74900.0,83600.0,107900.0,77800.0,64200.0,62500.0,63800.0,74200.0,77400.0,78900.0,76200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[6200.0,6400.0,7600.0,6600.0,6000.0,5500.0,5400.0,5500.0,5900.0,6000.0,6000.0,6300.0,6000.0,6100.0,6400.0,7400.0,5900.0,5400.0,5300.0,5300.0,5700.0,5900.0,5900.0,6200.0,5900.0,6000.0,7200.0,6500.0,5700.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,5600.0,5700.0,5700.0,6000.0,5700.0,5800.0,6000.0,7100.0,5600.0,5100.0,5000.0,5000.0,5400.0,5600.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,5700.0,6400.0,7500.0,6200.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,5400.0,5500.0,5500.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,6200.0,6500.0,5400.0,60000.0,58000.0,57000.0,61000.0,63000.0,63000.0,66000.0,64000.0,63000.0,67000.0,76000.0,62000.0,57000.0,55000.0,55000.0,59000.0,61000.0,61000.0,64000.0,62000.0,61000.0,64000.0,73000.0,60000.0,55000.0,53000.0,53000.0,57000.0,58000.0,58000.0,61000.0,59000.0,59000.0,69000.0,62000.0,56000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,54000.0,55000.0,55000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,58000.0,66000.0,54000.0,49000.0,47000.0,47000.0,51000.0,52000.0,52000.0,55000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[118000.0,120000.0,150000.0,122000.0,112000.0,100000.0,98000.0,100000.0,108000.0,112000.0,108000.0,100000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,15000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0,15000.0,14000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,12500.0,11000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9200.0,9200.0,9500.0,9000.0,9800.0,10500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8300.0,8300.0,8500.0,8500.0,8300.0,8200.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9500.0,8200.0,7600.0,7500.0,7500.0,7600.0,7700.0,7500.0,7400.0,7800.0,7400.0,7900.0,8700.0,7500.0,7000.0,6900.0,6900.0,7000.0,7100.0,6900.0,6900.0,7200.0,6900.0,8200.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6400.0,6400.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6400.0,6700.0,6300.0,6700.0,7800.0,6800.0,6200.0,6100.0,6100.0,6200.0,6300.0,6100.0,6100.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[33000.0,34000.0,45000.0,41000.0,35000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,40000.0,32000.0,34000.0,37000.0,47000.0,35000.0,33000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,40000.0,31000.0,32000.0,41000.0,44000.0,34000.0,32000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,39000.0,31000.0,33000.0,38000.0,46000.0,35000.0,33000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,41000.0,32000.0,34000.0,51000.0,60000.0,43000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,45000.0,34000.0,36000.0,45000.0,51000.0,38000.0,35000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,43000.0,33000.0,35000.0,43000.0,49000.0,37000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,36000.0,46000.0,36000.0,38000.0,47000.0,51000.0,38000.0,35000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,45000.0,36000.0,41000.0,51000.0,47000.0,37000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,44000.0,33000.0,34000.0,42000.0,48000.0,34000.0,31000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,35000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[31200.0,33500.0,46800.0,35200.0,33800.0,30500.0,28100.0,29400.0,32400.0,33100.0,31800.0,34500.0,30000.0,29800.0,34200.0,44500.0,33000.0,30000.0,27500.0,28600.0,31500.0,32800.0,31000.0,33800.0,29500.0,28300.0,39500.0,40200.0,31800.0,29200.0,26800.0,27900.0,30500.0,31800.0,30200.0,32900.0,28800.0,27400.0,31200.0,38800.0,30500.0,28200.0,26100.0,27000.0,29800.0,31000.0,29500.0,32200.0,28500.0,29800.0,43500.0,51200.0,41800.0,35200.0,33000.0,33800.0,36000.0,36500.0,35000.0,38500.0,34000.0,32500.0,39800.0,44200.0,34800.0,31200.0,29500.0,30200.0,32800.0,33500.0,31800.0,35200.0,30800.0,28900.0,32400.0,39800.0,31200.0,28500.0,26800.0,27800.0,30000.0,31200.0,29500.0,32500.0,29200.0,27500.0,30800.0,37500.0,29800.0,27200.0,25600.0,26500.0,28700.0,29800.0,28200.0,31200.0,28000.0,26800.0,36500.0,30500.0,28500.0,26000.0,24500.0,25200.0,27500.0,28600.0,27000.0,30000.0,26800.0,25400.0,28200.0,34800.0,27800.0,25200.0,23800.0,24500.0,26400.0,27500.0,26000.0,28900.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[78000.0,67000.0,59000.0,55000.0,49000.0,52000.0,66000.0,57000.0,53000.0,55000.0,59000.0,73000.0,77000.0,66000.0,58000.0,54000.0,48000.0,51000.0,65000.0,56000.0,52000.0,54000.0,58000.0,72000.0,75000.0,65000.0,57000.0,53000.0,48000.0,50000.0,64000.0,55000.0,51000.0,53000.0,57000.0,71000.0,73000.0,63000.0,55000.0,52000.0,46000.0,48000.0,62000.0,53000.0,49000.0,52000.0,55000.0,70000.0,72000.0,58000.0,48000.0,30000.0,31000.0,37000.0,53000.0,47000.0,44000.0,47000.0,51000.0,63000.0,69000.0,59000.0,48000.0,41000.0,38000.0,41000.0,55000.0,46000.0,43000.0,48000.0,55000.0,70000.0,72000.0,63000.0,58000.0,55000.0,48000.0,50000.0,65000.0,55000.0,51000.0,54000.0,57000.0,71000.0,82000.0,71000.0,62000.0,58000.0,52000.0,54000.0,69000.0,60000.0,55000.0,58000.0,62000.0,77000.0,84000.0,73000.0,64000.0,60000.0,53000.0,56000.0,72000.0,62000.0,57000.0,60000.0,64000.0,79000.0,86000.0,74000.0,65000.0,61000.0,54000.0,57000.0,73000.0,63000.0,58000.0,61000.0,65000.0,80000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[54600.0,49400.0,67600.0,54600.0,51000.0,46800.0,45800.0,45800.0,48900.0,49900.0,52000.0,58200.0,51500.0,47000.0,51000.0,66000.0,49000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,47000.0,48000.0,50000.0,56000.0,50500.0,46000.0,51500.0,63700.0,48000.0,44100.0,43100.0,43100.0,46100.0,47000.0,49000.0,54900.0,49400.0,45100.0,49000.0,63400.0,47000.0,43200.0,42200.0,42200.0,45100.0,46100.0,48000.0,53800.0,56100.0,52300.0,60500.0,74300.0,57800.0,50600.0,49500.0,49500.0,52300.0,53400.0,55000.0,60500.0,50500.0,46100.0,51500.0,63700.0,48000.0,44100.0,43100.0,43100.0,46100.0,47000.0,49000.0,54900.0,48400.0,44200.0,47900.0,62000.0,46100.0,42300.0,41400.0,41400.0,44200.0,45100.0,47000.0,52600.0,55000.0,52500.0,54000.0,65000.0,49000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,47000.0,48000.0,50000.0,56000.0,50400.0,51800.0,60000.0,51800.0,47000.0,43200.0,42200.0,42200.0,45100.0,46100.0,48000.0,53800.0,47400.0,43200.0,46900.0,66700.0,48300.0,41400.0,40500.0,40500.0,43200.0,44200.0,46000.0,51500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[17820.0,16830.0,20698.0,18975.0,15675.0,13530.0,13200.0,14190.0,16170.0,17160.0,17820.0,21450.0,22302.0,17850.0,17850.0,24640.0,16625.0,14350.0,14000.0,15050.0,17150.0,18200.0,18900.0,22750.0,19980.0,18870.0,19425.0,26048.0,17575.0,15170.0,14800.0,15910.0,18130.0,19240.0,19980.0,24050.0,21060.0,19890.0,19890.0,29652.0,18525.0,15990.0,15600.0,16770.0,19110.0,20280.0,21060.0,25350.0,21600.0,20400.0,19380.0,24781.0,12540.0,10332.0,10720.0,12040.0,14700.0,17264.0,19224.0,24440.0,18376.0,17355.0,18727.0,25978.0,17528.0,14289.0,13612.0,14104.0,16675.0,19614.0,21697.0,27450.0,22000.0,22705.0,24847.0,33116.0,21147.0,16703.0,16296.0,18421.0,21815.0,23369.0,24268.0,29211.0,24300.0,24327.0,24327.0,33581.0,21375.0,18450.0,18000.0,19350.0,22050.0,23400.0,24300.0,29250.0,26957.0,25459.0,30106.0,27600.0,22800.0,19680.0,19200.0,20640.0,23520.0,24960.0,25920.0,33384.0,27000.0,27030.0,26775.0,38016.0,26600.0,20500.0,20000.0,21500.0,24500.0,26000.0,27000.0,32500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[40700.0,46200.0,70100.0,42000.0,43300.0,37000.0,42000.0,41200.0,41200.0,43700.0,42800.0,53800.0,45600.0,51700.0,57300.0,76100.0,46100.0,43700.0,47000.0,46100.0,46100.0,48900.0,47900.0,60200.0,50400.0,57200.0,81600.0,65000.0,53600.0,45800.0,45800.0,45800.0,51000.0,51000.0,53000.0,66600.0,56300.0,63800.0,66700.0,128800.0,56800.0,53900.0,51000.0,51000.0,56800.0,56800.0,59200.0,74200.0,71800.0,81400.0,86600.0,119900.0,76200.0,65100.0,65100.0,65100.0,72500.0,72500.0,97700.0,113200.0,77600.0,88000.0,113600.0,113600.0,82400.0,70400.0,70400.0,70400.0,78400.0,78400.0,81600.0,102400.0,77600.0,88000.0,97600.0,129600.0,82400.0,70400.0,70400.0,70400.0,78400.0,90400.0,105600.0,126400.0,85400.0,96800.0,105600.0,140800.0,90600.0,77400.0,77400.0,77400.0,86200.0,86200.0,89800.0,112600.0,97000.0,135000.0,180000.0,150000.0,103000.0,88000.0,88000.0,88000.0,98000.0,98000.0,102000.0,128000.0,101900.0,115500.0,128100.0,165000.0,132000.0,97700.0,92400.0,92400.0,102900.0,102900.0,107100.0,134400.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[43800.0,38600.0,34200.0,30700.0,27900.0,26100.0,27800.0,30100.0,33500.0,37200.0,41300.0,46200.0,46700.0,40100.0,35700.0,33100.0,29900.0,27800.0,30100.0,31900.0,34800.0,39200.0,44100.0,48800.0,49200.0,43100.0,37900.0,35100.0,31900.0,29700.0,32100.0,33800.0,37200.0,40900.0,45800.0,51200.0,51800.0,44900.0,40100.0,36600.0,32800.0,30700.0,33100.0,35100.0,38200.0,42300.0,46900.0,53700.0,48700.0,45200.0,38600.0,27900.0,22100.0,19400.0,20300.0,22800.0,26900.0,33100.0,39200.0,45800.0,46100.0,41800.0,36600.0,32300.0,27900.0,21300.0,20100.0,22700.0,27100.0,33800.0,40200.0,45900.0,47200.0,43100.0,38800.0,35100.0,31800.0,29600.0,30900.0,33700.0,38100.0,42800.0,48900.0,54200.0,51800.0,45700.0,40900.0,36800.0,32900.0,30700.0,32900.0,35200.0,38900.0,44300.0,49200.0,55100.0,54700.0,47900.0,42700.0,38900.0,34700.0,32600.0,34900.0,37100.0,41200.0,46100.0,50800.0,56800.0,56900.0,49800.0,44900.0,40700.0,36800.0,34600.0,36900.0,38800.0,43100.0,47900.0,52900.0,58700.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[16500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,12500.0,11500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13500.0,14500.0,14500.0,16500.0,17500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17500.0,18000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,13500.0,12500.0,13500.0,13500.0,14500.0,15500.0,15500.0,18000.0,18500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,14000.0,12500.0,13500.0,13500.0,14500.0,15500.0,15500.0,17500.0,17500.0,14500.0,10000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8000.0,9500.0,9500.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,10000.0,10500.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,9500.0,8500.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,13000.0,13500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,10500.0,9500.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13500.0,13500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,10000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,11500.0,11500.0,13000.0,13000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,9500.0,8800.0,9500.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2810.0,2150.0,3020.0,3250.0,2030.0,1790.0,1660.0,1590.0,1980.0,2070.0,2260.0,3290.0,2950.0,2230.0,3080.0,3410.0,2120.0,1890.0,1750.0,1620.0,2090.0,2170.0,2400.0,3380.0,3020.0,2410.0,3290.0,3480.0,2210.0,1950.0,1830.0,1710.0,2160.0,2270.0,2520.0,3460.0,3170.0,2510.0,3320.0,3720.0,2290.0,2020.0,1900.0,1780.0,2250.0,2370.0,2590.0,3620.0,3550.0,2890.0,4300.0,4820.0,2950.0,2480.0,2190.0,2110.0,2620.0,2780.0,3010.0,4270.0,3220.0,2710.0,3580.0,3890.0,2560.0,2300.0,2040.0,1910.0,2430.0,2620.0,2790.0,3860.0,3190.0,2610.0,3620.0,3840.0,2390.0,2190.0,1970.0,1840.0,2340.0,2520.0,2700.0,3750.0,3300.0,2760.0,3650.0,4080.0,2620.0,2330.0,2100.0,1950.0,2470.0,2650.0,2850.0,3990.0,3240.0,2670.0,3620.0,3910.0,2440.0,2260.0,2010.0,1880.0,2380.0,2550.0,2740.0,3850.0,3180.0,2600.0,3560.0,3820.0,2400.0,2220.0,1970.0,1850.0,2330.0,2510.0,2710.0,3760.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[29200.0,26800.0,31000.0,34200.0,28700.0,27000.0,26100.0,26300.0,27500.0,28100.0,27800.0,32600.0,28400.0,25900.0,29800.0,33100.0,27900.0,26200.0,25400.0,25600.0,26700.0,27300.0,27100.0,31800.0,27800.0,25300.0,29200.0,32400.0,27300.0,25600.0,24900.0,25000.0,26100.0,26800.0,26500.0,31300.0,27000.0,24600.0,28400.0,31500.0,26500.0,24900.0,24100.0,24300.0,25400.0,26000.0,25800.0,30500.0,27600.0,26400.0,31600.0,37200.0,34100.0,31700.0,30800.0,30100.0,31400.0,32500.0,31900.0,36800.0,31000.0,28100.0,31900.0,34900.0,29200.0,27200.0,26500.0,26600.0,27500.0,28300.0,27900.0,32900.0,28700.0,26000.0,29600.0,32400.0,27100.0,25300.0,24600.0,24700.0,25600.0,26300.0,25900.0,30600.0,26700.0,24200.0,27600.0,30500.0,25500.0,23800.0,23100.0,23300.0,24100.0,24700.0,24400.0,28900.0,25500.0,23300.0,26900.0,30000.0,25000.0,23400.0,22800.0,23000.0,23800.0,24400.0,24100.0,28600.0,24900.0,22600.0,26100.0,29100.0,24300.0,22700.0,22100.0,22300.0,23100.0,23700.0,23400.0,27800.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3300.0,2850.0,3300.0,3450.0,2850.0,2700.0,2850.0,2850.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3450.0,3190.0,2755.0,3190.0,3335.0,2755.0,2610.0,2755.0,2755.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3335.0,3080.0,2660.0,3080.0,3220.0,2660.0,2520.0,2660.0,2660.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,3220.0,2970.0,2565.0,2970.0,3105.0,2565.0,2430.0,2565.0,2565.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,3105.0,3080.0,2660.0,2900.0,3300.0,2750.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,2750.0,2375.0,2750.0,2875.0,2375.0,2250.0,2375.0,2375.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2875.0,2640.0,2280.0,2640.0,2760.0,2280.0,2160.0,2280.0,2280.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2760.0,2420.0,2090.0,2420.0,2530.0,2090.0,1980.0,2090.0,2090.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2530.0,2090.0,1805.0,2090.0,2185.0,1805.0,1710.0,1805.0,1805.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2185.0,1870.0,1615.0,1870.0,1955.0,1615.0,1530.0,1615.0,1615.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1955.0]}},{"title":"Ariane de Rothschild","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Ariane de Rothschild\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[2958,2433,6054,5705,4001,2984,3738,3754,3666,4308,5185,4120,4416,3512,3845,3844,4174,4882,3899,3493,2992,3699,3544,3382,3541,2951,3652,3153,2930,3208,3218,3253,2916,3582,2697,2919,3209,2506,5311,2799,2939,3165,2908,2686,2482,4538,2726,2578,3748,4749,3718,5127,3673,2850,4125,3349,3082,3208,3312,3256,64953,6593,4362,3905,5505,4069,3868,4112,4440,4416,4191,4584,5012,3852,4315,3848,4701,3195,4057,4139,3762,4024,4818,4274,4587,4988,5970,6988,10654,4859,7368,6893,5147,7038,7883,6746,8245,9160,5360,4315,5001,8832,7378,5573,6455,5503,5824,5456,5229,4939,4880,5013,4989,5632,6974,6472,7470,8785,13038,14874],"flat_reference_value":17078.206897389544,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[1700.0,1550.0,1650.0,1600.0,1750.0,1650.0,1500.0,1450.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1600.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,1800.0,1950.0,1900.0,1750.0,1700.0,1950.0,2100.0,2050.0,1850.0,2050.0,1950.0,2200.0,2100.0,2250.0,2150.0,2000.0,1950.0,2200.0,2300.0,2250.0,2050.0,2300.0,2200.0,3400.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,3200.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2350.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2750.0,2700.0,2550.0,2500.0,2800.0,2900.0,2850.0,2600.0,32000.0,8500.0,5500.0,4600.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3500.0,3900.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3900.0,5000.0,11500.0,6500.0,5200.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4800.0,4000.0,4800.0,4100.0,4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,3900.0,4300.0,4100.0,4500.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,8500.0,6500.0,5400.0,4800.0,6000.0,5000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[3400.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,2950.0,2700.0,2600.0,2550.0,2850.0,3200.0,3350.0,3100.0,3300.0,2900.0,3150.0,3000.0,3600.0,2950.0,2800.0,2750.0,3050.0,3250.0,3400.0,3200.0,3500.0,3000.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,2850.0,2750.0,2700.0,2950.0,3300.0,3450.0,3300.0,3600.0,3100.0,4200.0,3500.0,3300.0,2950.0,3400.0,3800.0,3350.0,3450.0,3550.0,3400.0,3700.0,3300.0,3900.0,4300.0,3850.0,3400.0,3500.0,3350.0,3450.0,3600.0,3750.0,3800.0,48000.0,9500.0,5800.0,4900.0,4600.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4150.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,4200.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,3850.0,3750.0,3700.0,4000.0,4300.0,8200.0,4800.0,4700.0,4400.0,7600.0,6200.0,24000.0,6800.0,5200.0,4900.0,5300.0,38000.0,9400.0,6200.0,13500.0,11000.0,8500.0,5400.0,5100.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4800.0,5100.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,8800.0,6100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,9500.0,6400.0,6200.0,5800.0,11500.0,7200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2840.0,3120.0,3410.0,2980.0,3050.0,2720.0,2650.0,2890.0,3150.0,3300.0,3420.0,3210.0,3520.0,3110.0,3640.0,3290.0,3180.0,2940.0,3220.0,3380.0,3510.0,3450.0,3610.0,3720.0,3890.0,3420.0,3910.0,3750.0,3880.0,3620.0,3540.0,3710.0,3950.0,4120.0,4250.0,4010.0,4320.0,3890.0,4450.0,4180.0,4310.0,4200.0,6850.0,7420.0,5120.0,4650.0,4510.0,4380.0,4720.0,4210.0,4890.0,5210.0,4950.0,4420.0,4680.0,4810.0,4520.0,4730.0,4910.0,4650.0,65400.0,14200.0,8950.0,7420.0,6810.0,6250.0,6420.0,6710.0,6550.0,6390.0,6820.0,6610.0,7120.0,6280.0,6940.0,6510.0,6380.0,5920.0,6150.0,6480.0,6620.0,6810.0,7050.0,6720.0,7250.0,6810.0,7420.0,8150.0,48300.0,13900.0,9850.0,8720.0,8120.0,7950.0,8210.0,8450.0,14300.0,8920.0,7850.0,7410.0,7650.0,7180.0,7320.0,7510.0,7680.0,7920.0,8110.0,7850.0,8050.0,7320.0,7780.0,7450.0,7610.0,7200.0,7350.0,7520.0,7740.0,7910.0,8120.0,7880.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,4200.0,3200.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,4500.0,14000.0,5000.0,3500.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,3800.0,4200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,5200.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,4700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,5300.0,4900.0,5400.0,5100.0,5100.0,4900.0,5200.0,5600.0,5100.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5800.0,6500.0,6500.0,6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,5900.0,6000.0,6200.0,62000.0,13000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7300.0,7400.0,7000.0,7200.0,7300.0,7400.0,7800.0,7200.0,7500.0,7200.0,7200.0,6900.0,6900.0,7000.0,6900.0,7100.0,7200.0,7200.0,7600.0,7200.0,10500.0,9000.0,21000.0,10500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,16000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8500.0,8600.0,8500.0,8300.0,8500.0,8800.0,8800.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9200.0,15000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,30000.0,32000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[1250.0,1080.0,1180.0,1050.0,1220.0,1150.0,980.0,940.0,1150.0,1210.0,1130.0,1060.0,1220.0,1150.0,1260.0,1140.0,1280.0,1190.0,1040.0,1000.0,1240.0,1320.0,1250.0,1180.0,1320.0,1240.0,1380.0,1260.0,1400.0,1310.0,1150.0,1100.0,1350.0,1420.0,1340.0,1260.0,1450.0,1360.0,1520.0,1400.0,1550.0,1470.0,1280.0,1220.0,1480.0,1600.0,1520.0,1430.0,1580.0,1490.0,1650.0,1400.0,1450.0,1380.0,1300.0,1250.0,1470.0,1520.0,1430.0,1360.0,15500.0,4600.0,3100.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2050.0,2180.0,2050.0,2250.0,2020.0,2150.0,2050.0,1850.0,1780.0,2050.0,2120.0,2000.0,1900.0,3400.0,2900.0,2600.0,2350.0,2400.0,2250.0,2050.0,1950.0,2300.0,3200.0,2600.0,2350.0,2550.0,2350.0,2500.0,2300.0,2420.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2280.0,2150.0,2450.0,2250.0,2400.0,2200.0,2350.0,2220.0,2050.0,1950.0,2250.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[753.0,712.0,683.0,642.0,608.0,572.0,538.0,552.0,612.0,651.0,682.0,658.0,791.0,748.0,718.0,679.0,648.0,602.0,571.0,583.0,642.0,689.0,721.0,698.0,832.0,791.0,758.0,721.0,684.0,633.0,601.0,612.0,676.0,724.0,759.0,736.0,872.0,831.0,798.0,761.0,722.0,668.0,634.0,647.0,712.0,764.0,802.0,774.0,921.0,883.0,954.0,902.0,762.0,708.0,672.0,681.0,751.0,812.0,852.0,901.0,28500.0,9820.0,5230.0,3420.0,2810.0,2410.0,2110.0,2155.0,2410.0,2545.0,2650.0,2505.0,2765.0,2635.0,2515.0,2405.0,2275.0,2155.0,2045.0,2035.0,2278.0,2402.0,2522.0,2398.0,2985.0,2860.0,9510.0,4210.0,3010.0,2610.0,2315.0,2355.0,2695.0,2810.0,2905.0,2748.0,3215.0,3075.0,2935.0,2805.0,2655.0,7210.0,3810.0,2795.0,2955.0,3095.0,3205.0,3005.0,3295.0,3095.0,3005.0,2845.0,2695.0,2545.0,2395.0,2455.0,2698.0,2848.0,2948.0,2795.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3420.0,3280.0,3350.0,3190.0,3240.0,3010.0,2880.0,2950.0,3180.0,3470.0,3560.0,3120.0,3390.0,3250.0,3460.0,3320.0,3410.0,3180.0,3020.0,3090.0,3340.0,3620.0,3810.0,3390.0,4020.0,3890.0,4140.0,3980.0,4260.0,3910.0,3720.0,3830.0,4120.0,4460.0,4580.0,4150.0,4780.0,4620.0,4950.0,4810.0,5140.0,4720.0,4480.0,4560.0,5020.0,5380.0,5610.0,5020.0,5320.0,5180.0,5640.0,5290.0,5120.0,4820.0,4690.0,4780.0,5210.0,5580.0,5830.0,5260.0,58200.0,15800.0,10400.0,8600.0,7900.0,7350.0,6920.0,6740.0,7180.0,7520.0,7810.0,7120.0,8420.0,7680.0,8010.0,7840.0,8230.0,7620.0,7180.0,7340.0,7960.0,8540.0,8890.0,8120.0,8740.0,8520.0,8960.0,8780.0,9180.0,8640.0,8120.0,8310.0,8840.0,14200.0,11300.0,9520.0,9180.0,8960.0,9340.0,9520.0,9120.0,8740.0,8320.0,8510.0,8960.0,11200.0,9740.0,8960.0,8860.0,8640.0,9020.0,8840.0,9260.0,8720.0,8180.0,8340.0,8720.0,9480.0,9120.0,8320.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[420.0,400.0,450.0,470.0,440.0,400.0,380.0,390.0,430.0,460.0,480.0,450.0,470.0,450.0,500.0,520.0,490.0,450.0,420.0,440.0,480.0,520.0,540.0,500.0,520.0,500.0,550.0,570.0,540.0,500.0,470.0,490.0,530.0,570.0,590.0,550.0,580.0,560.0,610.0,640.0,600.0,550.0,520.0,540.0,590.0,640.0,660.0,620.0,650.0,630.0,680.0,710.0,670.0,620.0,590.0,610.0,660.0,710.0,730.0,690.0,12000.0,4000.0,2200.0,1700.0,1500.0,1300.0,1200.0,1250.0,1400.0,1600.0,1500.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1350.0,1250.0,1300.0,1450.0,1600.0,1700.0,1550.0,1600.0,1500.0,1800.0,1900.0,1700.0,1550.0,1450.0,1500.0,1650.0,1800.0,1900.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1750.0,1650.0,1700.0,1850.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,1950.0,1850.0,1900.0,2050.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[520.0,505.0,560.0,460.0,480.0,430.0,415.0,425.0,495.0,505.0,530.0,470.0,550.0,540.0,590.0,510.0,485.0,475.0,430.0,455.0,515.0,560.0,545.0,485.0,610.0,560.0,635.0,540.0,520.0,510.0,470.0,485.0,550.0,590.0,575.0,520.0,630.0,615.0,680.0,585.0,560.0,545.0,505.0,515.0,640.0,625.0,620.0,555.0,710.0,685.0,760.0,680.0,650.0,610.0,560.0,575.0,670.0,710.0,720.0,660.0,7300.0,2600.0,1900.0,1250.0,900.0,820.0,700.0,730.0,850.0,900.0,880.0,790.0,970.0,1150.0,1500.0,950.0,880.0,840.0,760.0,790.0,900.0,950.0,1550.0,850.0,1030.0,990.0,2100.0,1650.0,1350.0,2300.0,1800.0,950.0,980.0,1900.0,1500.0,950.0,1080.0,2900.0,3200.0,1250.0,980.0,920.0,860.0,880.0,1010.0,1080.0,1050.0,1800.0,2200.0,1500.0,1250.0,1020.0,1000.0,950.0,880.0,900.0,1050.0,1100.0,1080.0,960.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[760.0,700.0,690.0,640.0,620.0,590.0,540.0,520.0,610.0,670.0,700.0,600.0,820.0,760.0,740.0,700.0,690.0,660.0,610.0,590.0,690.0,760.0,790.0,680.0,880.0,820.0,800.0,770.0,740.0,720.0,670.0,640.0,740.0,810.0,840.0,730.0,950.0,890.0,870.0,1400.0,840.0,820.0,770.0,740.0,850.0,920.0,940.0,820.0,1000.0,950.0,1080.0,1120.0,1040.0,980.0,900.0,870.0,980.0,1050.0,1080.0,920.0,3600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1450.0,48000.0,14000.0,6200.0,4300.0,3400.0,2900.0,2400.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,2800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1350.0,1500.0,1400.0,1380.0,1320.0,1300.0,1260.0,1900.0,1280.0,1240.0,1220.0,1200.0,1080.0,1300.0,1230.0,1210.0,1180.0,1160.0,1140.0,1750.0,1150.0,1120.0,1100.0,1080.0,980.0,1180.0,1120.0,1100.0,1080.0,1060.0,1040.0,1600.0,1050.0,1020.0,1000.0,980.0,900.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[930.0,870.0,980.0,940.0,1050.0,1120.0,1260.0,1080.0,1030.0,1150.0,1020.0,1110.0,1150.0,1080.0,1220.0,1260.0,1600.0,9800.0,5200.0,2700.0,1550.0,1650.0,1480.0,1600.0,1350.0,1180.0,1320.0,1450.0,2900.0,1600.0,1550.0,1360.0,1480.0,1500.0,1380.0,1430.0,1480.0,1300.0,1480.0,3600.0,1750.0,1680.0,1900.0,1600.0,1750.0,1700.0,1550.0,1650.0,1680.0,1450.0,2300.0,2750.0,3100.0,2050.0,2150.0,1800.0,1950.0,1900.0,1750.0,1850.0,1950.0,1650.0,1900.0,2650.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,1900.0,2050.0,2000.0,1850.0,2000.0,2050.0,1800.0,3100.0,2400.0,2300.0,2900.0,2300.0,2050.0,6500.0,2800.0,2250.0,2300.0,2350.0,2050.0,2400.0,3200.0,4300.0,5500.0,6800.0,3000.0,2900.0,2600.0,2350.0,2650.0,2700.0,2350.0,2700.0,3000.0,2650.0,3700.0,5400.0,2900.0,3500.0,3000.0,2750.0,2850.0,2900.0,2500.0,3100.0,2700.0,2850.0,3400.0,4300.0,3700.0,3400.0,2950.0,2700.0,2850.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[900.0,850.0,900.0,880.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,880.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,830.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,980.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,930.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1800.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,2000.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,1750.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2050.0,2000.0,2200.0,2050.0,2100.0,2050.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2250.0,2150.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[730.0,568.0,568.0,511.0,533.0,470.0,493.0,420.0,595.0,591.0,518.0,664.0,817.0,667.0,661.0,595.0,624.0,557.0,584.0,498.0,706.0,699.0,615.0,783.0,906.0,735.0,734.0,657.0,692.0,910.0,645.0,548.0,781.0,774.0,681.0,868.0,975.0,801.0,795.0,916.0,746.0,672.0,700.0,603.0,846.0,839.0,737.0,940.0,1052.0,862.0,1258.0,900.0,804.0,724.0,754.0,649.0,911.0,904.0,793.0,1012.0,11297.0,4031.0,1955.0,1297.0,727.0,656.0,683.0,588.0,823.0,817.0,722.0,903.0,1432.0,853.0,844.0,762.0,1094.0,717.0,743.0,643.0,899.0,892.0,788.0,988.0,1598.0,903.0,895.0,1108.0,842.0,760.0,1040.0,681.0,952.0,1745.0,1336.0,1050.0,1024.0,1093.0,834.0,753.0,784.0,709.0,735.0,635.0,887.0,1480.0,780.0,975.0,950.0,780.0,774.0,697.0,727.0,906.0,682.0,588.0,824.0,817.0,722.0,909.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[145.0,138.0,162.0,151.0,158.0,149.0,131.0,126.0,154.0,168.0,157.0,139.0,161.0,148.0,174.0,166.0,183.0,171.0,146.0,140.0,177.0,192.0,181.0,152.0,178.0,169.0,197.0,188.0,205.0,191.0,162.0,155.0,204.0,222.0,213.0,178.0,205.0,192.0,680.0,534.0,372.0,296.0,241.0,229.0,258.0,274.0,249.0,218.0,237.0,229.0,266.0,251.0,263.0,249.0,228.0,220.0,254.0,271.0,259.0,248.0,5400.0,1920.0,880.0,610.0,468.0,392.0,334.0,319.0,354.0,382.0,361.0,310.0,336.0,318.0,367.0,349.0,378.0,356.0,319.0,307.0,348.0,374.0,359.0,312.0,348.0,332.0,412.0,386.0,421.0,398.0,622.0,481.0,407.0,429.0,394.0,348.0,382.0,361.0,418.0,397.0,432.0,409.0,365.0,354.0,401.0,438.0,416.0,359.0,398.0,377.0,435.0,412.0,449.0,421.0,379.0,366.0,418.0,452.0,431.0,372.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[410.0,399.0,391.0,380.0,372.0,361.0,323.0,323.0,388.0,395.0,380.0,342.0,389.0,378.0,371.0,360.0,353.0,342.0,306.0,306.0,367.0,374.0,360.0,324.0,454.0,441.0,433.0,420.0,650.0,500.0,357.0,357.0,428.0,437.0,420.0,378.0,432.0,420.0,412.0,400.0,392.0,380.0,340.0,340.0,408.0,416.0,400.0,360.0,518.0,504.0,494.0,480.0,470.0,456.0,408.0,408.0,560.0,499.0,480.0,432.0,464.0,452.0,443.0,430.0,421.0,409.0,366.0,366.0,439.0,447.0,430.0,387.0,432.0,420.0,412.0,400.0,392.0,380.0,340.0,340.0,408.0,416.0,400.0,360.0,410.0,399.0,391.0,380.0,372.0,361.0,323.0,323.0,388.0,480.0,380.0,342.0,389.0,378.0,371.0,360.0,353.0,342.0,306.0,306.0,367.0,374.0,360.0,324.0,367.0,357.0,350.0,340.0,333.0,323.0,289.0,289.0,347.0,354.0,340.0,306.0]}},{"title":"Japanese school uniform","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Japanese school uniform\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15288,13330,14801,15748,16792,15908,15651,15176,15370,16048,14997,15189,16836,14240,15550,16123,20542,15192,15044,14868,17119,16308,14203,15164,17092,16947,33371,16692,17851,15998,16822,16000,14297,15578,14486,14542,16167,14136,15237,17086,17140,15744,16686,16294,15863,17023,15627,15088,16433,14526,8367,8938,8417,7243,7327,7124,6702,6486,6613,6562,8799,7117,7531,7222,7510,7140,7161,6652,7517,18000,8248,5013,5195,4389,5136,5363,4687,5095,5203,4958,4627,4532,4050,5092,4958,4281,5102,4216,4534,4728,5124,7650,5113,4431,3852,4436,5041,4680,4655,4570,5470,5173,5803,5928,5063,6609,5751,5348,4671,3806,4214,4348,4256,4275,4152,4188,4266,4121,3854,4072],"flat_reference_value":17021.70548609915,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[12500.0,11900.0,13700.0,14600.0,13200.0,12600.0,11900.0,13800.0,15600.0,14900.0,13800.0,12400.0,13400.0,12500.0,14500.0,15500.0,14000.0,13300.0,12800.0,14600.0,16500.0,15800.0,14600.0,13000.0,14500.0,22000.0,17500.0,16500.0,15100.0,14400.0,13700.0,15600.0,17700.0,17000.0,15600.0,14000.0,15100.0,14200.0,16300.0,17700.0,15800.0,15000.0,14400.0,16400.0,18500.0,17900.0,16300.0,14800.0,15800.0,15000.0,16400.0,15600.0,15300.0,15100.0,15000.0,16800.0,18500.0,18100.0,16900.0,15700.0,16900.0,15800.0,18100.0,19500.0,17900.0,17300.0,16600.0,18500.0,20700.0,19900.0,18200.0,16500.0,17600.0,16400.0,18700.0,20100.0,18300.0,17500.0,16800.0,18800.0,21000.0,20200.0,18500.0,16800.0,17600.0,16300.0,18500.0,19900.0,18100.0,17300.0,16600.0,18600.0,20700.0,19800.0,18100.0,16500.0,17200.0,16100.0,18200.0,19500.0,17700.0,16800.0,16300.0,18100.0,20100.0,19200.0,17500.0,15900.0,16600.0,15300.0,17400.0,18700.0,16900.0,16100.0,15600.0,17400.0,19300.0,18500.0,16800.0,15200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[31200.0,28900.0,30800.0,32400.0,31100.0,29500.0,30200.0,31600.0,33400.0,37800.0,31500.0,28200.0,31400.0,28400.0,31000.0,32600.0,31300.0,29400.0,30500.0,31900.0,33800.0,39600.0,34800.0,29600.0,31800.0,37900.0,32500.0,33900.0,30800.0,28700.0,29800.0,30900.0,32600.0,36900.0,30400.0,27600.0,30100.0,28300.0,31200.0,32100.0,30400.0,28500.0,29700.0,31000.0,32800.0,36500.0,30200.0,27800.0,30500.0,28900.0,27400.0,33600.0,36800.0,36200.0,37500.0,39400.0,40800.0,43500.0,36900.0,34100.0,37200.0,34600.0,36800.0,37400.0,35900.0,33800.0,34900.0,35600.0,36400.0,40900.0,33500.0,30800.0,35200.0,33800.0,35400.0,33100.0,31200.0,29100.0,29800.0,30700.0,31900.0,35800.0,29400.0,26900.0,29300.0,26800.0,28900.0,29600.0,27800.0,25900.0,26700.0,27500.0,28600.0,32100.0,26400.0,24100.0,26200.0,24500.0,25800.0,26500.0,24900.0,23100.0,23800.0,24600.0,25700.0,28900.0,23600.0,21400.0,23100.0,21200.0,22800.0,23500.0,22100.0,20600.0,21300.0,22000.0,23100.0,26200.0,21100.0,19200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[31400.0,29800.0,34100.0,35200.0,32600.0,31200.0,33900.0,34800.0,36100.0,46200.0,30500.0,31900.0,33200.0,31100.0,35800.0,36400.0,33800.0,32400.0,35100.0,36700.0,37900.0,48300.0,32100.0,33500.0,34100.0,30900.0,34800.0,35900.0,33100.0,31600.0,34200.0,35400.0,36800.0,45900.0,31400.0,32200.0,32800.0,29600.0,33700.0,34200.0,31800.0,30500.0,33100.0,34200.0,35300.0,44100.0,29800.0,30900.0,31700.0,30200.0,37100.0,41800.0,39500.0,34200.0,35600.0,36400.0,36900.0,45800.0,31200.0,32400.0,32100.0,28900.0,32600.0,33100.0,30800.0,29400.0,31900.0,32800.0,33700.0,42500.0,28600.0,29800.0,29500.0,26800.0,30400.0,30900.0,28500.0,27200.0,29600.0,30800.0,31900.0,39600.0,26800.0,27900.0,27600.0,25100.0,28400.0,28900.0,26700.0,25400.0,27600.0,28700.0,29800.0,37200.0,25200.0,26100.0,25800.0,23900.0,26700.0,27200.0,25100.0,24000.0,26100.0,27300.0,28200.0,35100.0,23800.0,24700.0,24500.0,22600.0,25400.0,25900.0,23800.0,22700.0,24800.0,25900.0,26800.0,33400.0,22500.0,23400.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[72000.0,69000.0,74000.0,75000.0,73000.0,69000.0,71000.0,70000.0,67000.0,69000.0,67000.0,64000.0,68000.0,64000.0,69000.0,70000.0,67000.0,63000.0,65000.0,64000.0,61000.0,62000.0,60000.0,57000.0,61000.0,57000.0,61000.0,62000.0,59000.0,55000.0,57000.0,56000.0,53000.0,55000.0,53000.0,51000.0,54000.0,50000.0,54000.0,55000.0,53000.0,50000.0,52000.0,51000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,49000.0,47000.0,53000.0,58000.0,56000.0,51000.0,51000.0,50000.0,47000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,44000.0,47000.0,47000.0,45000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,38000.0,41000.0,38000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,33000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,44000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,39000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,29000.0,31000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,20000.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,18000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[28700.0,27300.0,30400.0,34900.0,29200.0,28100.0,28900.0,30600.0,34600.0,37900.0,31200.0,31700.0,29500.0,28200.0,31600.0,35400.0,30200.0,29100.0,29900.0,31700.0,35900.0,38600.0,32400.0,32900.0,31800.0,30600.0,33900.0,36500.0,31200.0,30100.0,30800.0,32600.0,36400.0,40700.0,33500.0,33800.0,32700.0,31900.0,33100.0,39200.0,32100.0,31300.0,33200.0,34100.0,38300.0,41600.0,34500.0,34600.0,29300.0,28400.0,30800.0,35800.0,30200.0,29100.0,29800.0,31200.0,34200.0,37600.0,32400.0,32700.0,35400.0,34100.0,36300.0,41200.0,35100.0,34000.0,37200.0,38700.0,41600.0,45800.0,37600.0,37900.0,52300.0,51700.0,50900.0,51400.0,42600.0,40800.0,42900.0,44600.0,48500.0,53600.0,45100.0,45300.0,41600.0,40300.0,44200.0,53200.0,43000.0,41700.0,44100.0,43800.0,50800.0,55600.0,46100.0,46400.0,45800.0,44100.0,48300.0,55100.0,47200.0,45800.0,46900.0,48400.0,55400.0,74200.0,60700.0,56500.0,47800.0,46200.0,50300.0,57600.0,49100.0,47400.0,58200.0,56800.0,57600.0,63800.0,52700.0,53100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[19074.0,17493.0,17170.0,18176.0,16635.0,14994.0,15640.0,16796.0,17809.0,18207.0,16830.0,15796.0,20757.0,19037.0,18500.0,20579.0,17048.0,16817.0,16850.0,17927.0,19580.0,19619.0,18315.0,17531.0,21780.0,21420.0,19600.0,21600.0,19380.0,17460.0,18584.0,18810.0,22248.0,20370.0,20200.0,18032.0,23887.0,22349.0,21930.0,22756.0,20425.0,19737.0,19187.0,20629.0,23684.0,22124.0,21500.0,19978.0,25850.0,25169.0,25850.0,30456.0,25674.0,22208.0,21620.0,22772.0,26141.0,24675.0,23030.0,22052.0,29172.0,27027.0,26260.0,27238.0,24700.0,23868.0,23442.0,24947.0,29203.0,27300.0,25740.0,23920.0,27775.0,25725.0,25750.0,27000.0,23038.0,22725.0,22770.0,24225.0,27000.0,26775.0,24500.0,23000.0,26136.0,25452.0,24000.0,25402.0,23256.0,21384.0,22301.0,22800.0,26438.0,32760.0,25200.0,21638.0,25300.0,24633.0,22540.0,25088.0,21632.0,20700.0,21583.0,21413.0,25088.0,23909.0,23460.0,20525.0,24998.0,23389.0,22500.0,24786.0,20948.0,20453.0,20493.0,21375.0,24786.0,23625.0,22275.0,20286.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[61600.0,58900.0,73700.0,79100.0,68300.0,61600.0,67000.0,75000.0,72300.0,77700.0,64300.0,56300.0,65200.0,62400.0,78000.0,83700.0,72400.0,65200.0,70900.0,79400.0,76600.0,82300.0,68100.0,59600.0,69800.0,66800.0,83500.0,89600.0,77400.0,69800.0,75800.0,85000.0,81900.0,88000.0,72800.0,63800.0,74300.0,71100.0,88900.0,95400.0,82400.0,74300.0,80800.0,90500.0,87300.0,93700.0,77600.0,67900.0,79700.0,76300.0,104900.0,117600.0,95500.0,83700.0,86700.0,97100.0,93600.0,100600.0,83200.0,72800.0,86900.0,83200.0,104100.0,111600.0,96500.0,86900.0,108800.0,118600.0,102100.0,109700.0,90800.0,79500.0,101600.0,99000.0,121700.0,118700.0,102500.0,92400.0,108500.0,112500.0,108500.0,116600.0,96500.0,84500.0,97800.0,93600.0,117100.0,135600.0,108500.0,97800.0,106400.0,119100.0,114900.0,123400.0,102200.0,89400.0,104200.0,99700.0,124700.0,133700.0,115600.0,104200.0,113300.0,126800.0,122300.0,131400.0,108800.0,95200.0,108700.0,104000.0,130100.0,139600.0,120600.0,108700.0,118200.0,132400.0,127700.0,137200.0,113500.0,99400.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[18400.0,17800.0,20100.0,22300.0,21000.0,19000.0,18500.0,20600.0,23100.0,22000.0,19700.0,17000.0,19500.0,18900.0,21000.0,23100.0,22300.0,20200.0,19700.0,21800.0,23900.0,22900.0,20800.0,18100.0,20900.0,20300.0,22500.0,24800.0,23900.0,21600.0,21200.0,23400.0,25700.0,24500.0,22300.0,19400.0,22800.0,22100.0,24500.0,27000.0,26000.0,23500.0,23000.0,25500.0,27900.0,26700.0,24300.0,22000.0,24500.0,24000.0,29000.0,34000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26500.0,29500.0,33000.0,31500.0,28500.0,24500.0,30500.0,29500.0,33000.0,36500.0,35000.0,31500.0,31000.0,34500.0,38000.0,36000.0,32500.0,28000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36500.0,40500.0,39000.0,35500.0,35000.0,38500.0,42500.0,40500.0,36500.0,31500.0,37500.0,36500.0,40500.0,44500.0,43000.0,39000.0,38500.0,42500.0,46500.0,44500.0,40000.0,34500.0,40000.0,39000.0,43000.0,47500.0,46000.0,41500.0,41000.0,45000.0,49500.0,47500.0,42500.0,36500.0,38000.0,37000.0,41000.0,45000.0,43500.0,39500.0,39000.0,43000.0,47000.0,45000.0,40500.0,35000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[13200.0,13400.0,14300.0,16200.0,13900.0,12800.0,13400.0,20000.0,18400.0,17400.0,15200.0,13100.0,14400.0,14500.0,15600.0,19200.0,15100.0,14100.0,14300.0,16200.0,16000.0,18500.0,14700.0,14200.0,15200.0,15400.0,16500.0,20000.0,16000.0,14900.0,15300.0,17100.0,17000.0,19100.0,15700.0,15100.0,16400.0,16600.0,17700.0,19900.0,17200.0,16100.0,16400.0,18400.0,21900.0,20600.0,16900.0,16200.0,18200.0,18400.0,24700.0,28800.0,23000.0,17900.0,18300.0,20500.0,20300.0,27300.0,20700.0,18000.0,20200.0,20400.0,37100.0,34400.0,21200.0,19800.0,23200.0,26100.0,22500.0,24100.0,20800.0,20000.0,22100.0,22300.0,23900.0,35000.0,26700.0,21700.0,22100.0,24900.0,24600.0,31700.0,27400.0,28000.0,32700.0,28200.0,26300.0,33900.0,25500.0,23800.0,30300.0,27300.0,27000.0,32500.0,25000.0,24000.0,25600.0,34900.0,30500.0,34300.0,26900.0,25100.0,25600.0,34500.0,28500.0,34300.0,26400.0,25300.0,27000.0,27200.0,29200.0,41000.0,28400.0,26400.0,32400.0,30300.0,30000.0,35500.0,27800.0,26700.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[39900.0,38000.0,43700.0,45600.0,39900.0,36100.0,36100.0,34200.0,39900.0,51300.0,36100.0,32300.0,44100.0,42000.0,48300.0,50400.0,44100.0,39900.0,39900.0,37800.0,44100.0,56700.0,39900.0,35700.0,48300.0,46000.0,52900.0,55200.0,48300.0,43700.0,43700.0,41400.0,48300.0,62100.0,43700.0,39100.0,52500.0,50000.0,57500.0,60000.0,52500.0,47500.0,47500.0,45000.0,52500.0,67500.0,47500.0,42500.0,57750.0,55000.0,82200.0,82500.0,63500.0,52250.0,52250.0,49500.0,57750.0,74250.0,52250.0,46750.0,63000.0,60000.0,69000.0,72000.0,63000.0,57000.0,57000.0,54000.0,63000.0,81000.0,57000.0,51000.0,58800.0,56000.0,64400.0,67200.0,58800.0,53200.0,53200.0,50400.0,58800.0,75600.0,53200.0,47600.0,50400.0,48000.0,55200.0,57600.0,50400.0,45600.0,45600.0,43200.0,50400.0,64800.0,45600.0,40800.0,44100.0,42000.0,48300.0,50400.0,44100.0,39900.0,39900.0,37800.0,44100.0,56700.0,39900.0,35700.0,39900.0,38000.0,43700.0,45600.0,39900.0,36100.0,36100.0,34200.0,39900.0,51300.0,36100.0,32300.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[7300.0,6700.0,9800.0,12100.0,8900.0,8100.0,7700.0,10400.0,11500.0,9200.0,8600.0,7900.0,7600.0,7000.0,10300.0,12700.0,9500.0,8700.0,8200.0,11100.0,12300.0,9900.0,9100.0,8300.0,8000.0,7500.0,11000.0,13400.0,10000.0,9200.0,8700.0,11700.0,13000.0,10400.0,9700.0,8800.0,8400.0,7900.0,11700.0,14200.0,10700.0,9800.0,9300.0,12500.0,14100.0,12700.0,10500.0,9400.0,9100.0,8600.0,10800.0,9800.0,9200.0,9400.0,9600.0,11800.0,13000.0,10700.0,10000.0,9300.0,9600.0,9000.0,12300.0,13900.0,10800.0,9900.0,10200.0,14500.0,15000.0,11700.0,10900.0,10000.0,10000.0,9400.0,12800.0,14300.0,11000.0,10100.0,9800.0,15000.0,15200.0,12000.0,11200.0,10300.0,10700.0,10000.0,13700.0,15400.0,11900.0,10900.0,13800.0,15900.0,16100.0,12700.0,11800.0,10900.0,11300.0,10500.0,14500.0,16400.0,12700.0,11600.0,14700.0,17000.0,17300.0,14900.0,13700.0,12200.0,12000.0,11100.0,15200.0,17000.0,13300.0,12200.0,12800.0,16100.0,16600.0,14200.0,13200.0,12000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[32000.0,30400.0,33600.0,35200.0,32000.0,30400.0,30400.0,32000.0,33600.0,33600.0,32000.0,30400.0,33000.0,31350.0,34650.0,36300.0,33000.0,31350.0,31350.0,33000.0,34650.0,34650.0,33000.0,31350.0,33500.0,31800.0,34600.0,36000.0,33000.0,31500.0,31000.0,33000.0,34500.0,34800.0,33000.0,31500.0,34000.0,32300.0,35700.0,37400.0,34000.0,32300.0,32300.0,34000.0,35700.0,35700.0,34000.0,32300.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,36000.0,37000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29500.0,32500.0,34000.0,31000.0,29500.0,29500.0,31000.0,32500.0,32500.0,31000.0,29500.0,29000.0,27500.0,30500.0,32000.0,29000.0,27500.0,27500.0,29000.0,30500.0,30500.0,29000.0,27500.0,28000.0,26600.0,29400.0,30800.0,28000.0,26600.0,26600.0,28000.0,29400.0,29400.0,28000.0,26600.0,26000.0,24700.0,27300.0,28600.0,26000.0,24700.0,24700.0,26000.0,27300.0,27300.0,26000.0,24700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[26300.0,25000.0,24500.0,26500.0,24500.0,23500.0,25000.0,28500.0,26600.0,30500.0,23300.0,28000.0,29400.0,28000.0,27400.0,29700.0,27400.0,26300.0,28000.0,28800.0,27700.0,30200.0,26000.0,28300.0,32000.0,30500.0,29900.0,32300.0,29900.0,28700.0,30500.0,31400.0,30200.0,32900.0,28400.0,30800.0,34100.0,32500.0,31900.0,34500.0,31900.0,30600.0,32500.0,33500.0,32200.0,35100.0,30200.0,32800.0,33600.0,32000.0,33400.0,34900.0,31400.0,30100.0,32800.0,33000.0,31700.0,34800.0,29800.0,32300.0,31500.0,30000.0,30400.0,32300.0,29400.0,28200.0,30000.0,30900.0,29700.0,32400.0,27900.0,30300.0,29900.0,28500.0,29400.0,32000.0,27900.0,26800.0,28500.0,29400.0,28200.0,30800.0,26500.0,28800.0,28400.0,27000.0,26500.0,28600.0,26500.0,25400.0,27000.0,27800.0,26700.0,29200.0,25100.0,27300.0,29900.0,28500.0,27900.0,31200.0,27900.0,26800.0,28500.0,29400.0,28200.0,30800.0,26500.0,28800.0,28900.0,27500.0,27000.0,29200.0,27000.0,25900.0,27500.0,28300.0,27200.0,29700.0,25600.0,27800.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[5800.0,5600.0,7200.0,8400.0,6600.0,6100.0,6300.0,5900.0,6500.0,7000.0,6000.0,5700.0,6000.0,5700.0,7500.0,8700.0,6800.0,6200.0,6400.0,6000.0,6600.0,7200.0,6100.0,5800.0,6200.0,5900.0,7800.0,9000.0,7000.0,6400.0,6600.0,6200.0,6800.0,7400.0,6300.0,6000.0,6300.0,6000.0,8000.0,9300.0,7200.0,6600.0,6800.0,6400.0,7000.0,7600.0,6500.0,6100.0,6000.0,5700.0,7000.0,7800.0,6200.0,5700.0,6000.0,5800.0,6300.0,6800.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,5600.0,7300.0,8400.0,6600.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6100.0,5800.0,6100.0,5800.0,7600.0,8900.0,7000.0,6500.0,6700.0,6400.0,6900.0,7500.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,8000.0,9300.0,7300.0,6700.0,6900.0,6600.0,7200.0,7800.0,6700.0,6300.0,6500.0,6200.0,8300.0,9700.0,7500.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,7400.0,8000.0,6900.0,6500.0,6600.0,6300.0,8500.0,9900.0,7700.0,7100.0,7300.0,7000.0,7600.0,8200.0,7100.0,6700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[6500.0,6175.0,6825.0,8125.0,7150.0,6500.0,6175.0,5525.0,6500.0,6500.0,6175.0,5850.0,6800.0,6460.0,7140.0,8500.0,7480.0,6800.0,6460.0,5780.0,6800.0,6800.0,6460.0,6120.0,7200.0,6840.0,7560.0,9000.0,7920.0,7200.0,6840.0,6120.0,7200.0,7200.0,6840.0,6480.0,7500.0,7125.0,7875.0,9375.0,8250.0,7500.0,7125.0,6375.0,7500.0,7500.0,7125.0,6750.0,9000.0,8550.0,9450.0,11250.0,9900.0,9000.0,8550.0,7650.0,9000.0,9000.0,8550.0,8100.0,9500.0,9025.0,9975.0,11875.0,10450.0,9500.0,9025.0,8075.0,9500.0,9500.0,9025.0,8550.0,9000.0,8550.0,9450.0,11250.0,9900.0,9000.0,8550.0,7650.0,9000.0,9000.0,8550.0,8100.0,8800.0,8360.0,9240.0,11000.0,9680.0,8800.0,8360.0,7480.0,8800.0,8800.0,8360.0,7920.0,8500.0,8075.0,8925.0,10625.0,9350.0,8500.0,8075.0,7225.0,8500.0,8500.0,8075.0,7650.0,8200.0,7790.0,8610.0,10250.0,9020.0,8200.0,7790.0,6970.0,8200.0,8200.0,7790.0,7380.0]}},{"title":"The Belgariad","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"The Belgariad\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[12504,10887,10740,10223,10914,10663,11685,11870,11039,10382,10344,11228,12061,10011,10550,10078,9785,9733,10980,11494,9706,9384,9681,9371,11130,9877,10941,10674,10163,9869,11178,11168,10045,9995,9112,9986,11319,9109,9895,9741,13172,10318,10446,10374,9501,9387,9378,9590,10388,9887,9640,11444,12016,9886,10316,10476,9701,9652,9656,9712,10236,9015,10191,9888,10231,9385,9920,9994,9410,9510,10888,10685,10635,8502,8558,8081,7825,8404,9795,9140,10008,8836,7273,7574,8828,8207,8991,8040,9078,8222,8684,10623,8664,7822,7814,9876,11494,9976,10977,8991,9784,8385,8845,9106,8242,7997,10869,9406,9922,8004,8803,8611,7900,8186,8537,9619,7651,7617,7246,7945],"flat_reference_value":17011.58615694856,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6900.0,6500.0,6700.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,6400.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6200.0,6800.0,7100.0,6200.0,6500.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,6200.0,6300.0,5900.0,6100.0,6000.0,6500.0,6900.0,6000.0,6300.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,6100.0,6200.0,5800.0,6000.0,5900.0,6400.0,6700.0,5900.0,6100.0,5700.0,5900.0,9000.0,7600.0,6500.0,5900.0,6100.0,5900.0,6300.0,6600.0,6000.0,6800.0,7100.0,6700.0,6100.0,6300.0,6400.0,5800.0,6000.0,5900.0,6500.0,6800.0,5800.0,6100.0,5600.0,5800.0,5500.0,5900.0,6000.0,5500.0,5700.0,5600.0,6200.0,6500.0,5500.0,5800.0,5400.0,5600.0,5300.0,5700.0,5800.0,5300.0,5500.0,5400.0,6000.0,6200.0,5300.0,5600.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,5500.0,5600.0,5100.0,5400.0,5200.0,5800.0,6000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,5300.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,5600.0,5800.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,5000.0,4700.0,5100.0,5200.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[16850.0,14920.0,15640.0,14880.0,15210.0,15530.0,16420.0,16190.0,14710.0,14950.0,14620.0,15780.0,16490.0,14410.0,15320.0,14650.0,14980.0,15190.0,16050.0,15870.0,14380.0,14590.0,14250.0,15340.0,16020.0,13980.0,14950.0,14310.0,14690.0,14820.0,15740.0,15510.0,14120.0,14350.0,13990.0,15080.0,15840.0,13760.0,14780.0,14190.0,14560.0,14730.0,15620.0,15480.0,14050.0,14290.0,14110.0,15240.0,16120.0,14390.0,16450.0,18620.0,20480.0,18290.0,18740.0,18150.0,16380.0,16190.0,15840.0,16920.0,17450.0,15120.0,15980.0,15230.0,15490.0,15180.0,15940.0,15720.0,14260.0,14480.0,14890.0,15610.0,15920.0,13680.0,14450.0,13820.0,14090.0,13950.0,14810.0,14690.0,13340.0,13520.0,13180.0,14150.0,14780.0,12740.0,13560.0,12980.0,13210.0,13090.0,13920.0,13750.0,12460.0,12640.0,12310.0,13190.0,13720.0,12180.0,12690.0,12050.0,12280.0,12140.0,12890.0,12710.0,11520.0,11680.0,11390.0,12190.0,12680.0,10940.0,11650.0,11080.0,11290.0,11150.0,11840.0,11690.0,10580.0,10740.0,10460.0,11210.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[19450.0,18120.0,17890.0,16950.0,16540.0,17200.0,18600.0,18350.0,16820.0,16210.0,16750.0,18400.0,19200.0,16850.0,17300.0,16120.0,15980.0,16750.0,17820.0,17400.0,15630.0,15200.0,15850.0,17100.0,17950.0,15620.0,16100.0,15300.0,14950.0,15400.0,16650.0,16300.0,14800.0,14500.0,15150.0,16400.0,17150.0,14920.0,15480.0,14750.0,14320.0,14900.0,15800.0,15550.0,14100.0,13950.0,14600.0,16100.0,22400.0,26150.0,21800.0,23500.0,21300.0,18900.0,19400.0,18200.0,16100.0,15450.0,15800.0,17350.0,17100.0,14850.0,15200.0,14300.0,13750.0,14100.0,15050.0,14800.0,13400.0,13100.0,13650.0,14900.0,15300.0,13400.0,13750.0,12850.0,12400.0,12950.0,13800.0,13500.0,12100.0,11850.0,12300.0,13600.0,13950.0,12200.0,12600.0,11750.0,11400.0,11950.0,12700.0,12450.0,11100.0,10850.0,11300.0,12500.0,12850.0,11300.0,11700.0,10900.0,10600.0,11150.0,11850.0,11600.0,10350.0,10100.0,10550.0,11650.0,12000.0,10600.0,11000.0,10250.0,9950.0,10450.0,11100.0,10850.0,9700.0,9450.0,9900.0,10950.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[10200.0,9100.0,9500.0,9200.0,9300.0,9100.0,9600.0,9500.0,8800.0,8900.0,8700.0,9300.0,9800.0,8700.0,9100.0,8800.0,8900.0,8700.0,9200.0,9000.0,8400.0,8500.0,8300.0,8900.0,9300.0,8200.0,8600.0,8300.0,8400.0,8200.0,8700.0,8500.0,7900.0,8000.0,7800.0,8400.0,8800.0,7800.0,8100.0,7900.0,7900.0,7700.0,8200.0,8000.0,7500.0,7600.0,7400.0,8000.0,8400.0,7600.0,8900.0,9800.0,9400.0,8700.0,8600.0,8300.0,7700.0,7700.0,7600.0,8100.0,8500.0,7500.0,7700.0,7400.0,7300.0,7100.0,7400.0,7300.0,6900.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,6700.0,7000.0,6800.0,6800.0,6600.0,6900.0,6800.0,6400.0,6500.0,6300.0,6700.0,7100.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6400.0,6200.0,6500.0,6400.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,6300.0,6700.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,6100.0,6000.0,5600.0,5700.0,5500.0,5900.0,6300.0,5600.0,5800.0,5600.0,5600.0,5400.0,5700.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,5100.0,5500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[30500.0,28000.0,28500.0,27000.0,27500.0,27000.0,28500.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25500.0,27000.0,28500.0,25500.0,26500.0,25000.0,25000.0,24500.0,26000.0,25500.0,23500.0,23500.0,23000.0,24500.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22500.0,22500.0,22000.0,23500.0,23000.0,21500.0,21500.0,21000.0,22500.0,24000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,20500.0,21500.0,21500.0,20000.0,20000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22500.0,20500.0,22500.0,26000.0,36000.0,33000.0,27000.0,25000.0,22500.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24500.0,22000.0,22500.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0,19500.0,20500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,18500.0,16500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15500.0,16500.0,17500.0,15500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,16000.0,16000.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,15500.0,16500.0,14500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[8000.0,7250.0,7400.0,7400.0,7550.0,7550.0,7850.0,7770.0,7180.0,7400.0,8300.0,11500.0,7550.0,6860.0,7000.0,7050.0,7140.0,7140.0,7420.0,7350.0,6790.0,7000.0,7840.0,10800.0,7240.0,6570.0,6700.0,7250.0,7000.0,13500.0,7100.0,7040.0,6500.0,6700.0,7500.0,10400.0,6590.0,5980.0,6100.0,6150.0,6220.0,6500.0,6470.0,6400.0,5920.0,6100.0,6830.0,9500.0,6480.0,5880.0,6900.0,7200.0,6120.0,6800.0,6360.0,6300.0,5820.0,7200.0,6720.0,10200.0,6160.0,5590.0,5700.0,6100.0,5810.0,5810.0,6040.0,5990.0,5530.0,5700.0,6800.0,9800.0,5830.0,5290.0,5400.0,5800.0,5510.0,5510.0,5720.0,5950.0,5500.0,5400.0,6050.0,8700.0,5510.0,5000.0,5100.0,5150.0,5200.0,5200.0,5400.0,5360.0,4950.0,5100.0,5710.0,8200.0,5290.0,4800.0,4900.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,5190.0,5150.0,4750.0,4900.0,5490.0,7900.0,5080.0,4610.0,4700.0,4750.0,4790.0,4790.0,4980.0,4940.0,4560.0,4700.0,5260.0,7500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[5614.0,5038.0,5417.0,4982.0,4946.0,4431.0,4318.0,4542.0,4963.0,5312.0,5137.0,4789.0,5512.0,4936.0,5264.0,4889.0,4841.0,4362.0,4237.0,4461.0,4844.0,5218.0,5039.0,4688.0,5419.0,4837.0,5163.0,4788.0,4742.0,4261.0,4139.0,4364.0,4738.0,5116.0,4938.0,4637.0,5317.0,4748.0,5062.0,4709.0,4651.0,4193.0,4067.0,4294.0,4648.0,5013.0,4869.0,4914.0,5216.0,4689.0,6218.0,6814.0,6017.0,4812.0,4388.0,4516.0,4887.0,5214.0,5088.0,4891.0,5918.0,5387.0,5812.0,5489.0,5413.0,4886.0,4762.0,4938.0,5416.0,5763.0,5587.0,5289.0,5714.0,5138.0,5517.0,5189.0,5162.0,4638.0,4513.0,4689.0,5164.0,5518.0,5337.0,4988.0,5463.0,4887.0,5264.0,4938.0,4912.0,4389.0,4314.0,4487.0,4913.0,5267.0,5089.0,4786.0,5318.0,4738.0,5114.0,4789.0,4763.0,4238.0,4162.0,4339.0,4764.0,5117.0,4936.0,4638.0,5163.0,4589.0,4964.0,4638.0,4612.0,4089.0,4013.0,4188.0,4614.0,4963.0,4787.0,4489.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[8020.0,6870.0,7220.0,7560.0,7690.0,8330.0,8910.0,8440.0,7650.0,7280.0,7540.0,8210.0,8380.0,7260.0,7700.0,7940.0,8110.0,8940.0,10200.0,9600.0,8150.0,7770.0,7990.0,8610.0,8820.0,7610.0,8060.0,8320.0,8510.0,9270.0,9880.0,9320.0,8540.0,8150.0,8280.0,9120.0,9240.0,8050.0,8470.0,8750.0,8960.0,9860.0,10280.0,9750.0,8930.0,8620.0,8750.0,9590.0,10460.0,9040.0,11900.0,13200.0,12400.0,11160.0,11700.0,11100.0,10160.0,9700.0,9860.0,10840.0,10910.0,9440.0,10010.0,10350.0,10610.0,11520.0,12260.0,11580.0,10490.0,10180.0,10410.0,11900.0,11800.0,9940.0,10510.0,10870.0,11130.0,12230.0,12770.0,15400.0,11900.0,10710.0,10870.0,11900.0,12090.0,10380.0,10980.0,11350.0,11620.0,12900.0,13330.0,12710.0,11640.0,11120.0,11290.0,12430.0,12550.0,10820.0,11440.0,11830.0,12120.0,13310.0,13900.0,13250.0,12130.0,15200.0,12600.0,12960.0,13060.0,11220.0,11850.0,12270.0,12560.0,13790.0,14410.0,13730.0,12570.0,12010.0,12210.0,13420.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2600.0,5000.0,4000.0,2500.0,2700.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2600.0,2800.0,4100.0,3800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2880.0,2920.0,2770.0,2760.0,2420.0,2460.0,2190.0,2380.0,2620.0,2840.0,2440.0,2340.0,2910.0,3610.0,2746.0,2626.0,2599.0,2205.0,2263.0,2179.0,2706.0,2572.0,2601.0,2344.0,2797.0,2834.0,2720.0,2678.0,2377.0,2321.0,2284.0,2114.0,2601.0,2548.0,2625.0,2207.0,2824.0,2564.0,2802.0,2497.0,2425.0,2141.0,2132.0,2159.0,2448.0,2624.0,2328.0,2275.0,2882.0,2724.0,3256.0,3129.0,2749.0,2367.0,2219.0,2202.0,2758.0,2864.0,2703.0,2414.0,2966.0,2698.0,2831.0,2522.0,2450.0,2139.0,2240.0,2181.0,2575.0,2574.0,2550.0,2184.0,2739.0,2538.0,2744.0,3245.0,2258.0,2184.0,2046.0,2179.0,2373.0,2521.0,2352.0,2249.0,2596.0,2579.0,2498.0,2413.0,2160.0,2195.0,1937.0,2086.0,2366.0,2461.0,2250.0,2005.0,2609.0,2372.0,2464.0,2217.0,2219.0,1959.0,1990.0,1857.0,2310.0,2286.0,2220.0,1980.0,2444.0,2311.0,2306.0,2249.0,2016.0,1948.0,1752.0,1868.0,2140.0,2271.0,2035.0,1948.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[10300.0,10700.0,11200.0,10900.0,10300.0,9000.0,8600.0,8800.0,10500.0,11200.0,10700.0,8200.0,10710.0,11130.0,11650.0,11340.0,10710.0,9360.0,8940.0,9150.0,10920.0,11650.0,11130.0,8530.0,11120.0,11560.0,12100.0,11770.0,11120.0,9720.0,9290.0,9500.0,11340.0,12100.0,11560.0,8860.0,11740.0,12200.0,12770.0,12430.0,11740.0,10260.0,9800.0,10030.0,11970.0,12770.0,12200.0,9350.0,12570.0,13050.0,17080.0,15960.0,14070.0,11530.0,10490.0,10740.0,12810.0,13660.0,13050.0,10000.0,11950.0,12410.0,12990.0,12640.0,11950.0,10440.0,9980.0,10210.0,12180.0,12990.0,12410.0,9510.0,11540.0,11980.0,12540.0,13180.0,13270.0,10890.0,10110.0,9860.0,11760.0,12540.0,11980.0,9180.0,10710.0,11130.0,34940.0,17000.0,12850.0,10110.0,8940.0,9150.0,10920.0,11650.0,11130.0,8530.0,9680.0,10060.0,10530.0,10250.0,9680.0,8460.0,8080.0,8270.0,9870.0,10530.0,10060.0,7710.0,8760.0,9100.0,9520.0,9270.0,8760.0,7650.0,7310.0,7480.0,8930.0,9520.0,9100.0,6970.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2450.0,2280.0,2390.0,2950.0,2590.0,2320.0,2230.0,2290.0,2340.0,2610.0,3040.0,2520.0,2450.0,2340.0,2520.0,2480.0,2350.0,2440.0,2710.0,4650.0,4100.0,3050.0,2640.0,2460.0,3100.0,2700.0,2440.0,2560.0,2310.0,2180.0,2160.0,3400.0,2460.0,2310.0,2390.0,2270.0,2610.0,2300.0,2450.0,2240.0,2450.0,2170.0,2080.0,2510.0,2230.0,2270.0,2190.0,2130.0,6700.0,21900.0,4700.0,2960.0,2490.0,2250.0,2170.0,2200.0,2290.0,2400.0,2550.0,2640.0,3720.0,3350.0,2620.0,2420.0,2470.0,2250.0,2160.0,2190.0,2260.0,2380.0,2520.0,2550.0,3030.0,2700.0,2480.0,2340.0,2360.0,2180.0,2100.0,2140.0,2200.0,2330.0,2450.0,2350.0,2870.0,2500.0,2300.0,2160.0,2300.0,2110.0,2030.0,2070.0,2130.0,2250.0,2360.0,2260.0,3220.0,2730.0,2480.0,2310.0,2690.0,2340.0,2190.0,2200.0,2270.0,2390.0,2540.0,2440.0,2960.0,2580.0,2350.0,2200.0,2290.0,2100.0,2010.0,2060.0,2120.0,2230.0,2340.0,2230.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3500.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2600.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1265.0,1018.0,1152.0,1174.0,1042.0,1231.0,1320.0,1245.0,1116.0,1128.0,1147.0,1219.0,1162.0,949.0,1108.0,1117.0,988.0,1174.0,1204.0,1183.0,1029.0,1043.0,1113.0,1157.0,1234.0,957.0,1181.0,1109.0,1062.0,1187.0,1292.0,1223.0,1071.0,1104.0,1128.0,1199.0,1342.0,1027.0,1263.0,1191.0,1128.0,1272.0,1374.0,1310.0,1155.0,1187.0,1207.0,1289.0,1432.0,1168.0,1515.0,1528.0,1316.0,1438.0,1492.0,1421.0,1274.0,1311.0,1347.0,1438.0,1391.0,1075.0,1322.0,1249.0,1184.0,1338.0,1443.0,1371.0,1203.0,1241.0,1297.0,1328.0,1487.0,1182.0,1419.0,1373.0,1292.0,1461.0,1568.0,1494.0,1412.0,1521.0,1448.0,1472.0,2836.0,1746.0,1608.0,1487.0,1392.0,1772.0,1693.0,1615.0,1452.0,1471.0,1523.0,1598.0,1528.0,1253.0,1621.0,1432.0,1388.0,1540.0,1599.0,1556.0,1374.0,1503.0,1467.0,1526.0,1464.0,1198.0,1405.0,1393.0,1281.0,1475.0,1558.0,1489.0,1312.0,1347.0,1402.0,1456.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1650.0,1450.0,1550.0,1480.0,1500.0,1420.0,1600.0,1510.0,1450.0,1520.0,1600.0,1700.0,1580.0,1410.0,1490.0,1430.0,1470.0,1390.0,1530.0,1460.0,1400.0,1480.0,1540.0,1620.0,1690.0,1480.0,1580.0,1520.0,1550.0,1460.0,1650.0,1540.0,1490.0,1570.0,1640.0,1730.0,1660.0,1500.0,1600.0,1540.0,1710.0,6200.0,3400.0,2400.0,1900.0,1810.0,1770.0,1850.0,1800.0,1660.0,1830.0,2240.0,2380.0,2250.0,2460.0,2300.0,2080.0,2010.0,2140.0,2260.0,2160.0,1850.0,1940.0,1830.0,1880.0,1770.0,1960.0,1870.0,1780.0,1850.0,1920.0,2010.0,1980.0,1760.0,1830.0,1740.0,1790.0,1690.0,1880.0,1800.0,1710.0,1780.0,1850.0,1940.0,1900.0,1690.0,1760.0,1670.0,1710.0,1620.0,1810.0,1730.0,1650.0,1710.0,1790.0,1870.0,1830.0,1630.0,1700.0,1600.0,1650.0,1560.0,1740.0,1660.0,1580.0,1640.0,1710.0,1790.0,1760.0,1560.0,1640.0,1540.0,1580.0,1500.0,1680.0,1600.0,1520.0,1580.0,1650.0,1730.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[480.0,470.0,500.0,490.0,460.0,440.0,430.0,420.0,450.0,470.0,460.0,480.0,470.0,460.0,490.0,475.0,450.0,430.0,420.0,415.0,440.0,455.0,445.0,465.0,455.0,440.0,470.0,460.0,435.0,420.0,410.0,405.0,430.0,445.0,435.0,450.0,440.0,430.0,455.0,445.0,425.0,410.0,400.0,395.0,420.0,435.0,425.0,440.0,470.0,455.0,485.0,500.0,480.0,445.0,430.0,425.0,440.0,450.0,440.0,455.0,445.0,430.0,455.0,440.0,420.0,405.0,395.0,390.0,410.0,425.0,415.0,430.0,425.0,415.0,440.0,430.0,410.0,395.0,385.0,380.0,400.0,415.0,405.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,420.0,415.0,395.0,385.0,375.0,370.0,390.0,400.0,392.0,405.0,395.0,385.0,405.0,398.0,380.0,370.0,362.0,358.0,375.0,390.0,380.0,392.0,380.0,370.0,390.0,382.0,365.0,355.0,348.0,343.0,360.0,372.0,365.0,375.0]}},{"title":"Cultural relativism","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Cultural relativism\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[19965,26651,21300,20137,18483,16911,18189,16480,25511,25455,22323,20301,20891,24980,23864,18835,19804,19311,20020,17072,24515,25951,24533,22552,23557,26199,23546,19527,18053,19261,21705,19088,29853,27017,24201,21403,24181,25080,24647,23229,20174,19624,19776,17652,26363,25260,20667,17590,19913,21973,18136,17307,15924,16232,14830,15807,39015,57523,37329,25022,21862,24086,23896,18026,15693,12099,9990,11202,21548,25287,16043,12431,12534,16066,18263,13959,13821,11008,9385,14937,23952,19883,16694,12713,13700,15458,16340,10023,10523,9226,7499,9022,19010,17047,12062,9964,12474,15090,18575,13565,12970,9718,9158,14446,18114,11461,8575,7424,10472,9000,8163,6257,6488,5408,5214,5710,6874,6527,5793,5597],"flat_reference_value":16967.037657422177,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[24800.0,29300.0,31200.0,30100.0,25100.0,18500.0,17000.0,19100.0,28900.0,32600.0,31000.0,23000.0,25400.0,30200.0,32000.0,30600.0,25900.0,19000.0,17500.0,19700.0,29700.0,33500.0,32100.0,23700.0,26500.0,31100.0,32700.0,31800.0,26500.0,19700.0,18100.0,20400.0,30500.0,34600.0,33000.0,24500.0,27200.0,32000.0,33700.0,32600.0,27300.0,20300.0,18800.0,21200.0,31500.0,35600.0,33900.0,25100.0,28100.0,32900.0,34000.0,34800.0,28900.0,22400.0,20700.0,22600.0,33500.0,37800.0,35900.0,26700.0,28700.0,33500.0,35600.0,34400.0,28200.0,20800.0,19300.0,22000.0,32800.0,36900.0,35000.0,25800.0,27600.0,32400.0,34200.0,32900.0,27300.0,20100.0,18600.0,21100.0,31500.0,35400.0,33600.0,24700.0,26600.0,31100.0,32900.0,31400.0,26000.0,19100.0,17700.0,20100.0,30000.0,33700.0,32000.0,23500.0,25100.0,29300.0,30900.0,29800.0,24500.0,18000.0,16600.0,19000.0,28300.0,31900.0,30100.0,22000.0,23500.0,27300.0,28800.0,27800.0,22800.0,16600.0,15400.0,17600.0,26300.0,29700.0,28000.0,20400.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[41200.0,51800.0,50400.0,49100.0,43600.0,28400.0,25100.0,36900.0,61500.0,63800.0,53200.0,36400.0,40800.0,50900.0,49700.0,47800.0,42500.0,27300.0,24600.0,35800.0,59800.0,61900.0,51400.0,34900.0,38900.0,47600.0,46200.0,45500.0,39800.0,25200.0,22900.0,34100.0,55600.0,57900.0,48300.0,32800.0,36700.0,45300.0,44100.0,43600.0,38200.0,24100.0,21800.0,32600.0,53400.0,55100.0,46200.0,31500.0,35900.0,44800.0,39400.0,45700.0,40300.0,26400.0,24100.0,35200.0,58900.0,62400.0,50800.0,34200.0,37400.0,46100.0,45300.0,43800.0,37600.0,23500.0,20900.0,31800.0,49700.0,51600.0,43900.0,29800.0,33600.0,41900.0,40800.0,39200.0,34500.0,21200.0,19100.0,28700.0,45800.0,47300.0,41600.0,27100.0,30200.0,36800.0,35400.0,33900.0,29100.0,18200.0,16400.0,24300.0,38400.0,39700.0,33200.0,22400.0,25600.0,31400.0,30100.0,29300.0,25200.0,15800.0,14300.0,20900.0,32800.0,34100.0,28400.0,19200.0,22100.0,27300.0,26400.0,25600.0,22300.0,14100.0,12900.0,18700.0,29100.0,30400.0,25300.0,17400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[38200.0,55800.0,61400.0,58100.0,46300.0,28400.0,24100.0,29800.0,60200.0,68500.0,65100.0,37900.0,39700.0,57900.0,63200.0,59400.0,47200.0,28100.0,23900.0,30500.0,61300.0,69400.0,66200.0,38800.0,38900.0,55300.0,60100.0,56400.0,44200.0,26300.0,22400.0,28900.0,58200.0,65800.0,62100.0,36200.0,36400.0,52100.0,56800.0,53200.0,41500.0,24500.0,20800.0,27100.0,54900.0,62700.0,58400.0,33900.0,34800.0,49700.0,41200.0,43100.0,35300.0,23400.0,19800.0,25200.0,50100.0,57900.0,53800.0,31700.0,32400.0,46800.0,51600.0,47900.0,36200.0,22100.0,18900.0,23800.0,48300.0,55100.0,50900.0,29800.0,29200.0,42700.0,47100.0,43800.0,32900.0,20200.0,17100.0,21800.0,43900.0,50200.0,46100.0,26800.0,25900.0,37800.0,41900.0,38700.0,28900.0,17800.0,15200.0,19100.0,38200.0,43800.0,40100.0,23200.0,22800.0,33900.0,37200.0,34800.0,25900.0,16200.0,13900.0,17400.0,34200.0,39100.0,35800.0,20900.0,20700.0,31200.0,34100.0,32000.0,23800.0,14900.0,12800.0,15900.0,31300.0,35900.0,32700.0,19200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[43700.0,49680.0,51520.0,49680.0,43700.0,35880.0,33120.0,36800.0,48300.0,52900.0,51520.0,39100.0,40850.0,46440.0,48160.0,46440.0,40850.0,33540.0,30960.0,34400.0,45150.0,49450.0,48160.0,36550.0,38000.0,43200.0,44800.0,43200.0,38000.0,31200.0,28800.0,32000.0,42000.0,46000.0,44800.0,34000.0,35150.0,39960.0,41440.0,39960.0,35150.0,28860.0,26640.0,29600.0,38850.0,42550.0,41440.0,31450.0,33250.0,37800.0,39200.0,40000.0,34000.0,27300.0,25200.0,28000.0,36750.0,40250.0,39200.0,29750.0,30400.0,34560.0,35840.0,34560.0,30400.0,24960.0,23040.0,25600.0,33600.0,36800.0,35840.0,27200.0,27550.0,31320.0,32480.0,31320.0,27550.0,22620.0,20880.0,23200.0,30450.0,33350.0,32480.0,24650.0,25650.0,29160.0,30240.0,29160.0,25650.0,21060.0,19440.0,21600.0,28350.0,31050.0,30240.0,22950.0,23750.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,23750.0,19500.0,18000.0,20000.0,26250.0,28750.0,28000.0,21250.0,21850.0,24840.0,25760.0,24840.0,21850.0,17940.0,16560.0,18400.0,24150.0,26450.0,25760.0,19550.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[45000.0,49500.0,49500.0,47000.0,43000.0,36000.0,34000.0,40500.0,56000.0,56000.0,49500.0,38000.0,43000.0,47000.0,47000.0,45000.0,41000.0,34000.0,32000.0,39000.0,54000.0,54000.0,47000.0,36500.0,40000.0,44000.0,44000.0,42000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,36000.0,50000.0,50000.0,44000.0,34000.0,37000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,33000.0,46000.0,46000.0,41000.0,31500.0,36000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,36000.0,29000.0,27000.0,32000.0,45000.0,45000.0,40000.0,30500.0,33000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,26000.0,25000.0,30000.0,41000.0,41000.0,36000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,22000.0,20000.0,24000.0,34000.0,34000.0,30000.0,23000.0,23000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,18500.0,17000.0,21000.0,29000.0,29000.0,25000.0,19500.0,21000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,17000.0,16000.0,19000.0,26000.0,26000.0,23000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14500.0,17000.0,24000.0,24000.0,21000.0,16000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[31200.0,34800.0,33400.0,29900.0,27600.0,22800.0,20900.0,23700.0,33100.0,35900.0,32300.0,24600.0,38400.0,37200.0,36100.0,32800.0,29400.0,23900.0,21800.0,24900.0,34700.0,37800.0,34200.0,25900.0,35300.0,39100.0,37400.0,33700.0,30600.0,25600.0,23200.0,26800.0,36900.0,40200.0,36300.0,27600.0,35000.0,38700.0,37800.0,33900.0,30700.0,25000.0,22800.0,26200.0,36400.0,39300.0,35100.0,27000.0,37100.0,41300.0,44600.0,42100.0,37400.0,28300.0,25400.0,28100.0,39200.0,42400.0,38200.0,29300.0,38000.0,42300.0,40100.0,36300.0,33200.0,27100.0,24700.0,28000.0,39000.0,42000.0,37300.0,28800.0,36200.0,43400.0,40300.0,35400.0,32100.0,26000.0,23800.0,27200.0,37100.0,39400.0,34900.0,27100.0,34200.0,37900.0,36700.0,33000.0,30200.0,24700.0,22300.0,25300.0,35200.0,37300.0,33300.0,26000.0,31400.0,35200.0,34300.0,30400.0,27700.0,23100.0,21200.0,24100.0,33200.0,35300.0,31400.0,24700.0,28300.0,31700.0,30900.0,27200.0,24800.0,20700.0,19000.0,21400.0,29200.0,31000.0,27800.0,21900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[20934.0,21112.0,21847.0,19620.0,18891.0,15023.0,12918.0,14955.0,19310.0,21903.0,20085.0,14102.0,20150.0,20280.0,20940.0,18870.0,18055.0,14410.0,12420.0,14305.0,18540.0,20970.0,19260.0,13580.0,19120.0,19630.0,19850.0,18240.0,17100.0,13820.0,11850.0,13700.0,17920.0,19830.0,18650.0,12980.0,18350.0,18780.0,18960.0,17450.0,16320.0,13200.0,11320.0,13150.0,16900.0,19180.0,17600.0,12400.0,17480.0,17920.0,22150.0,20340.0,18970.0,12640.0,10800.0,12530.0,16380.0,18290.0,16750.0,11820.0,16650.0,17080.0,18120.0,15890.0,15050.0,11830.0,10450.0,11720.0,15560.0,17180.0,16140.0,11200.0,15820.0,16230.0,16370.0,15080.0,14100.0,11420.0,9750.0,11300.0,14540.0,16510.0,15100.0,10620.0,15160.0,15170.0,15730.0,14080.0,13540.0,10600.0,9400.0,10520.0,13950.0,15400.0,14470.0,10050.0,14150.0,14530.0,14620.0,13510.0,12610.0,10200.0,8720.0,10110.0,12960.0,14720.0,13440.0,9480.0,13320.0,13670.0,13750.0,12710.0,11850.0,9590.0,8180.0,9490.0,12160.0,13830.0,12610.0,8850.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[48600.0,46900.0,45100.0,41700.0,43000.0,35300.0,34000.0,38700.0,50300.0,49000.0,50900.0,37000.0,52300.0,50500.0,46700.0,43200.0,44500.0,36500.0,35200.0,42600.0,52100.0,50700.0,48100.0,38300.0,53700.0,51800.0,49900.0,46100.0,47500.0,39000.0,37500.0,42800.0,55600.0,58200.0,51300.0,40900.0,54800.0,52900.0,50900.0,47000.0,48500.0,39800.0,38300.0,43700.0,56700.0,55300.0,52400.0,41700.0,59300.0,57200.0,62600.0,59500.0,57200.0,48600.0,43000.0,47300.0,61400.0,59900.0,61700.0,45200.0,62100.0,55600.0,53600.0,49500.0,51000.0,46300.0,41300.0,45900.0,59700.0,58100.0,55100.0,43900.0,56500.0,54500.0,52500.0,48500.0,50000.0,41000.0,39500.0,45000.0,63500.0,61500.0,57500.0,46500.0,54200.0,52300.0,50400.0,46600.0,48000.0,39400.0,37900.0,43200.0,56200.0,57200.0,52300.0,41300.0,53100.0,51200.0,49400.0,45600.0,47000.0,38500.0,37100.0,42300.0,55000.0,53600.0,53800.0,40400.0,53700.0,49500.0,46200.0,42700.0,44000.0,36100.0,34800.0,39600.0,51500.0,50200.0,47500.0,37800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[39100.0,40200.0,41400.0,39300.0,37000.0,33100.0,31600.0,34500.0,40700.0,43800.0,44500.0,35100.0,40100.0,41300.0,42500.0,40300.0,37900.0,34100.0,32600.0,38600.0,41600.0,44900.0,43100.0,35200.0,41100.0,42300.0,43500.0,41400.0,38900.0,35000.0,33400.0,36300.0,42800.0,46100.0,44300.0,36100.0,42100.0,43400.0,46800.0,42400.0,39900.0,35800.0,34200.0,37200.0,43800.0,47100.0,45400.0,37100.0,45200.0,46800.0,48900.0,46300.0,43600.0,44500.0,38200.0,40500.0,47200.0,51000.0,49200.0,40700.0,43100.0,44400.0,45700.0,43400.0,40900.0,36700.0,35100.0,38600.0,44800.0,48300.0,46500.0,37900.0,40100.0,41300.0,42400.0,40300.0,37900.0,35500.0,32500.0,35400.0,41600.0,44800.0,43100.0,35200.0,39100.0,40200.0,41300.0,39200.0,36900.0,33100.0,31700.0,34500.0,40600.0,46500.0,44100.0,35800.0,37000.0,38100.0,39200.0,37100.0,35600.0,31500.0,30000.0,32700.0,38500.0,41400.0,39900.0,33100.0,35900.0,37000.0,38100.0,36100.0,34600.0,30600.0,29200.0,31800.0,37400.0,40200.0,38800.0,32100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7900.0,8600.0,8400.0,8100.0,7200.0,6100.0,5600.0,6800.0,9500.0,9300.0,8800.0,6900.0,9000.0,10200.0,8900.0,8500.0,7700.0,6600.0,6000.0,7400.0,10200.0,9900.0,8700.0,7300.0,9000.0,9700.0,9400.0,8900.0,8200.0,7000.0,6500.0,7800.0,10600.0,10400.0,9300.0,7800.0,9800.0,10300.0,10800.0,9700.0,8800.0,7500.0,6900.0,8300.0,11300.0,11100.0,9900.0,8400.0,10600.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,10200.0,11800.0,9500.0,9200.0,12400.0,12100.0,10900.0,9100.0,10900.0,11500.0,11200.0,10800.0,9800.0,9800.0,9000.0,10500.0,12800.0,12500.0,11200.0,9400.0,10400.0,11500.0,11100.0,10300.0,9400.0,9800.0,7600.0,8800.0,12000.0,11800.0,13500.0,10100.0,9900.0,10400.0,10100.0,9800.0,8900.0,7600.0,7000.0,8800.0,11400.0,14500.0,12200.0,9200.0,9000.0,9400.0,9200.0,10800.0,9900.0,7000.0,7800.0,8500.0,10200.0,10100.0,10400.0,7700.0,8800.0,8500.0,8300.0,7900.0,7200.0,6100.0,5700.0,6800.0,9200.0,9000.0,8200.0,6900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[15200.0,14600.0,14000.0,13200.0,13800.0,10500.0,9200.0,9800.0,16500.0,17200.0,18500.0,12000.0,17000.0,16500.0,15000.0,14200.0,14800.0,11200.0,9800.0,10500.0,17500.0,18000.0,16000.0,12500.0,15500.0,15000.0,14200.0,13500.0,14000.0,10800.0,9500.0,10200.0,17000.0,17500.0,15800.0,12800.0,16500.0,16000.0,15200.0,14500.0,15000.0,11500.0,10200.0,10900.0,18500.0,19000.0,17200.0,13500.0,18000.0,17500.0,22500.0,24000.0,25000.0,26500.0,17000.0,15500.0,20000.0,20800.0,22000.0,15500.0,24000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17200.0,17800.0,13500.0,12000.0,12800.0,20000.0,20500.0,18800.0,15000.0,18000.0,23000.0,20000.0,18000.0,19500.0,20500.0,14000.0,14200.0,21000.0,20000.0,21500.0,15500.0,18500.0,17500.0,16800.0,16000.0,16500.0,12800.0,11500.0,12200.0,21000.0,36000.0,29000.0,18500.0,19500.0,18800.0,18000.0,17200.0,17800.0,13500.0,12200.0,13000.0,22000.0,23500.0,26000.0,16500.0,22500.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,14000.0,12500.0,13200.0,22500.0,23000.0,20500.0,16000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[78000.0,74000.0,77000.0,74000.0,75000.0,68000.0,66000.0,73000.0,84000.0,105000.0,133000.0,115000.0,111000.0,90000.0,85000.0,83000.0,81000.0,75000.0,72000.0,78000.0,87000.0,94000.0,99000.0,87000.0,93000.0,83000.0,79000.0,78000.0,75000.0,70000.0,68000.0,74000.0,82000.0,87000.0,91000.0,79000.0,85000.0,76000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,64000.0,61000.0,66000.0,74000.0,79000.0,83000.0,70000.0,72000.0,69000.0,81000.0,94000.0,104000.0,108000.0,101000.0,94000.0,112000.0,107000.0,111000.0,91000.0,99000.0,80000.0,74000.0,72000.0,71000.0,67000.0,65000.0,71000.0,79000.0,82000.0,86000.0,74000.0,79000.0,91000.0,99000.0,91000.0,85000.0,79000.0,75000.0,79000.0,87000.0,92000.0,93000.0,79000.0,83000.0,72000.0,67000.0,68000.0,66000.0,62000.0,59000.0,64000.0,72000.0,75000.0,79000.0,67000.0,76000.0,67000.0,65000.0,64000.0,63000.0,59000.0,57000.0,62000.0,68000.0,73000.0,81000.0,67000.0,80000.0,68000.0,66000.0,65000.0,64000.0,60000.0,58000.0,62000.0,68000.0,72000.0,76000.0,65000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4300.0,4700.0,5000.0,5100.0,4600.0,3300.0,3000.0,3600.0,4800.0,5200.0,5100.0,3800.0,4300.0,4800.0,5100.0,5200.0,4600.0,3300.0,3000.0,3700.0,4900.0,5300.0,5100.0,3800.0,4400.0,4900.0,5100.0,5200.0,4500.0,3200.0,3000.0,3700.0,4900.0,5300.0,5000.0,3700.0,4300.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,4400.0,3200.0,2900.0,3600.0,4800.0,5200.0,4900.0,3600.0,4300.0,4800.0,5200.0,5400.0,4800.0,3600.0,3200.0,3800.0,5000.0,5400.0,5100.0,3800.0,4400.0,4900.0,5100.0,5100.0,4400.0,3300.0,3000.0,3600.0,4800.0,5100.0,4900.0,3500.0,4100.0,4600.0,4800.0,4800.0,4200.0,3000.0,2800.0,3400.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,3300.0,3900.0,4400.0,4600.0,4600.0,4000.0,2900.0,2700.0,3300.0,4300.0,4600.0,4400.0,3100.0,3700.0,4100.0,4300.0,4300.0,3700.0,2700.0,2500.0,3100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,2900.0,3400.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,3500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2900.0,3700.0,4000.0,3800.0,2700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[48250.0,43180.0,40610.0,39720.0,44560.0,27980.0,24160.0,41230.0,51870.0,43940.0,40350.0,33290.0,52310.0,46720.0,42880.0,43670.0,48190.0,29740.0,25360.0,43980.0,56120.0,47940.0,43210.0,35480.0,54280.0,48170.0,44690.0,44130.0,48960.0,30270.0,26410.0,44760.0,58340.0,49180.0,44050.0,36820.0,55610.0,49830.0,45720.0,45340.0,50490.0,31480.0,27250.0,45960.0,59880.0,50320.0,45170.0,37640.0,59370.0,53120.0,56840.0,61720.0,66340.0,48560.0,32190.0,54870.0,70610.0,58440.0,51720.0,41380.0,56920.0,50810.0,48370.0,46980.0,50120.0,34790.0,29460.0,49180.0,63540.0,54310.0,47920.0,38270.0,46280.0,41170.0,38260.0,37840.0,41590.0,28310.0,23920.0,40120.0,51730.0,44380.0,39170.0,31840.0,41350.0,37480.0,34920.0,33870.0,37650.0,25710.0,22180.0,36240.0,46470.0,39350.0,34780.0,28560.0,37640.0,33280.0,31470.0,30260.0,34120.0,23140.0,19980.0,33470.0,43280.0,36570.0,32460.0,26710.0,34820.0,31590.0,29710.0,28360.0,32240.0,21790.0,18870.0,32460.0,41350.0,35190.0,31270.0,25630.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[6900.0,6500.0,7300.0,7000.0,7100.0,6200.0,6000.0,6400.0,7900.0,8100.0,7400.0,6800.0,6700.0,6200.0,6900.0,6600.0,6700.0,5900.0,5700.0,6100.0,7600.0,7800.0,7100.0,6500.0,6400.0,6000.0,6600.0,6300.0,6400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5900.0,7300.0,7500.0,6800.0,6200.0,6100.0,5700.0,6300.0,6000.0,6100.0,5400.0,5200.0,5600.0,7000.0,7200.0,6500.0,5900.0,6200.0,6000.0,6800.0,7100.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,8400.0,8700.0,7900.0,7200.0,7000.0,6600.0,7300.0,7000.0,7100.0,6300.0,6100.0,6500.0,8000.0,8200.0,7500.0,6900.0,6500.0,6100.0,6700.0,6400.0,6500.0,5800.0,5600.0,6000.0,7400.0,7600.0,6900.0,6300.0,6200.0,5800.0,6400.0,6100.0,6200.0,5500.0,5300.0,5700.0,7000.0,7200.0,6500.0,5900.0,5900.0,5500.0,6100.0,5800.0,5900.0,5200.0,5000.0,5400.0,6700.0,6900.0,6200.0,5600.0,5600.0,5200.0,5800.0,5500.0,5600.0,4900.0,4700.0,5100.0,6400.0,6600.0,5900.0,5300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3800.0,4200.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3680.0,3280.0,3520.0,4320.0,4480.0,4400.0,3520.0,3610.0,3990.0,4180.0,3990.0,3800.0,3496.0,3116.0,3344.0,4104.0,4256.0,4180.0,3344.0,3420.0,3780.0,3960.0,3780.0,3600.0,3312.0,2952.0,3168.0,3888.0,4032.0,3960.0,3168.0,3325.0,3675.0,3850.0,3675.0,3500.0,3220.0,2870.0,3080.0,3780.0,3920.0,3850.0,3080.0,3515.0,3885.0,4070.0,3885.0,3700.0,3404.0,3034.0,3256.0,3996.0,4144.0,4070.0,3256.0,3230.0,3570.0,3740.0,3570.0,3400.0,3128.0,2788.0,2992.0,3672.0,3808.0,3740.0,2992.0,2850.0,3150.0,3300.0,3150.0,3000.0,2760.0,2460.0,2640.0,3240.0,3360.0,3300.0,2640.0,2565.0,2835.0,2970.0,2835.0,2700.0,2484.0,2214.0,2376.0,2916.0,3024.0,2970.0,2376.0,2280.0,2520.0,2640.0,2520.0,2400.0,2208.0,1968.0,2112.0,2592.0,2688.0,2640.0,2112.0,1995.0,2205.0,2310.0,2205.0,2100.0,1932.0,1722.0,1848.0,2268.0,2352.0,2310.0,1848.0]}},{"title":"Lockheed A-12","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Lockheed A-12\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[39863,38999,38542,29297,33051,32428,29855,28549,33256,31571,28021,31099,34762,28290,33197,32138,31535,32133,34275,35585,32331,30086,28239,32114,40735,30523,30792,30288,30943,26675,32457,34352,27017,28814,27072,31122,38405,27340,36595,45525,31351,33498,63788,32362,40707,29358,31534,30735,31126,40346,28968,39206,351646,53843,58513,38299,39044,36082,34066,38796,55409,39168,47925,42886,50635,51815,41541,41582,45894,48827,35384,41466,54042,41047,51190,57854,48076,60030,53467,46961,51216,44429,77900,57265,56890,61617,52112,39915,46773,39983,48368,48674,58328,53242,44140,43214,50548,41977,46773,47483,39016,41229,43072,38630,35182,41841,41545,53046,48998,39546,41674,40418,31094,48914,37692,33280,30091,33750,30316,30937],"flat_reference_value":16889.197511360344,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37000.0,39000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,37000.0,34000.0,37000.0,41000.0,46000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,39000.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,41000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,49000.0,52000.0,61000.0,43000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,42000.0,46000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,41000.0,43000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,39000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,41000.0,45000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,40000.0,44000.0,49000.0,55000.0,75000.0,67000.0,56000.0,48000.0,47000.0,44000.0,46000.0,47000.0,42000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,44000.0,49000.0,50000.0,45000.0,47000.0,43000.0,45000.0,48000.0,44000.0,47000.0,49000.0,48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,51000.0,47000.0,49000.0,45000.0,47000.0,50000.0,45000.0,49000.0,51000.0,50000.0,48000.0,52000.0,53000.0,49000.0,51000.0,47000.0,49000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[37400.0,34800.0,36500.0,35900.0,36800.0,34200.0,36100.0,35500.0,33900.0,35200.0,34600.0,36300.0,38900.0,34500.0,37800.0,36400.0,37100.0,35300.0,38200.0,36900.0,34700.0,36100.0,35400.0,37000.0,39500.0,35100.0,38400.0,37200.0,36600.0,34900.0,37800.0,36700.0,35000.0,36400.0,35800.0,37600.0,40200.0,36300.0,39100.0,37900.0,38500.0,36800.0,41200.0,39400.0,37100.0,38300.0,37500.0,39200.0,42100.0,38700.0,41500.0,44200.0,580000.0,86000.0,52400.0,47800.0,44900.0,45600.0,44100.0,46800.0,48500.0,44200.0,46900.0,45300.0,49100.0,43800.0,45700.0,44600.0,43900.0,44800.0,43500.0,51200.0,47600.0,43100.0,52800.0,48900.0,56400.0,68500.0,54200.0,49300.0,45800.0,46500.0,44900.0,46100.0,48200.0,62400.0,49500.0,46800.0,47200.0,44500.0,46900.0,45800.0,55300.0,46200.0,44100.0,45400.0,47100.0,43600.0,45900.0,43800.0,44500.0,41900.0,43700.0,42800.0,41200.0,43900.0,54600.0,48300.0,56200.0,92500.0,54800.0,44300.0,43600.0,40900.0,42400.0,41500.0,39800.0,40700.0,39500.0,41200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[31400.0,29800.0,32100.0,28900.0,30500.0,28100.0,31200.0,29700.0,28400.0,30800.0,32600.0,30100.0,33900.0,28700.0,31500.0,29200.0,30100.0,27800.0,29900.0,28600.0,27400.0,29800.0,32100.0,29400.0,32800.0,28100.0,30400.0,27900.0,28600.0,26500.0,28300.0,27400.0,26100.0,28700.0,30200.0,28000.0,31100.0,27200.0,29500.0,26800.0,27300.0,26000.0,31900.0,30400.0,35200.0,28900.0,27600.0,25800.0,28700.0,26300.0,31200.0,36800.0,34100.0,28500.0,27900.0,26800.0,25400.0,26600.0,27800.0,26100.0,29300.0,25400.0,27100.0,25800.0,24900.0,23600.0,25100.0,24200.0,23500.0,25300.0,26400.0,24800.0,27200.0,24100.0,25600.0,24300.0,32800.0,39500.0,34100.0,28200.0,25100.0,25700.0,26300.0,24500.0,26800.0,23500.0,25200.0,23800.0,24100.0,22600.0,23900.0,23100.0,22400.0,23700.0,24600.0,22900.0,25300.0,22800.0,24100.0,22500.0,23000.0,21400.0,22800.0,21900.0,21100.0,22400.0,23200.0,21600.0,24000.0,21500.0,22800.0,21200.0,21700.0,20100.0,21400.0,20600.0,19800.0,21000.0,21900.0,20400.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,28000.0,31000.0,29000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,33000.0,40000.0,32000.0,28000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0,47000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,48000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,39000.0,42000.0,46000.0,720000.0,85000.0,60000.0,52000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,47000.0,48000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,41000.0,44000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,52000.0,62000.0,50000.0,46000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,44000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,41000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,40000.0,41000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[12200.0,12350.0,12400.0,12100.0,12000.0,11500.0,11150.0,11300.0,11950.0,12200.0,12100.0,11400.0,12650.0,12750.0,12720.0,12500.0,12400.0,11900.0,11550.0,11650.0,12400.0,12600.0,12500.0,11800.0,13150.0,13300.0,13250.0,13000.0,12900.0,12400.0,12900.0,13000.0,13000.0,13150.0,13000.0,12250.0,13900.0,14000.0,14000.0,13700.0,13600.0,13050.0,13900.0,12850.0,26400.0,15300.0,13750.0,12900.0,14750.0,14950.0,16150.0,16750.0,16150.0,14650.0,13650.0,13750.0,14650.0,14900.0,14700.0,13750.0,17600.0,14400.0,14300.0,14100.0,13900.0,13300.0,12900.0,13100.0,13900.0,14100.0,14000.0,13200.0,13900.0,14000.0,14000.0,15500.0,24600.0,18400.0,14150.0,13350.0,14150.0,14400.0,14250.0,13450.0,13400.0,13500.0,13500.0,13250.0,13100.0,12600.0,12250.0,12350.0,13100.0,13400.0,13250.0,12500.0,12900.0,13000.0,13000.0,12800.0,12600.0,12100.0,11750.0,11850.0,12600.0,12900.0,12800.0,12000.0,12650.0,12750.0,13300.0,12550.0,12350.0,12900.0,12550.0,12150.0,12400.0,12650.0,12500.0,11750.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":null,"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[8400.0,8700.0,8900.0,8600.0,8200.0,7300.0,7000.0,7200.0,8300.0,8700.0,8400.0,7600.0,9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,9500.0,9000.0,8100.0,7700.0,7900.0,9100.0,10200.0,9100.0,8200.0,9900.0,10300.0,10600.0,10300.0,9800.0,8800.0,8400.0,8600.0,11400.0,10400.0,10000.0,8900.0,10500.0,10900.0,11200.0,10800.0,10200.0,9300.0,8800.0,9100.0,10400.0,10900.0,10500.0,9400.0,11800.0,12200.0,13200.0,15500.0,13800.0,11500.0,10800.0,11000.0,12300.0,12900.0,12400.0,11200.0,11500.0,11900.0,12300.0,12000.0,11500.0,10300.0,9800.0,10000.0,11200.0,11800.0,11400.0,10300.0,11800.0,12300.0,12700.0,12400.0,16500.0,18200.0,15000.0,12600.0,11900.0,12400.0,12000.0,10800.0,11200.0,11600.0,12000.0,11700.0,11200.0,10100.0,9600.0,9800.0,11000.0,11500.0,11100.0,10000.0,10600.0,11000.0,11300.0,11000.0,10600.0,9500.0,9100.0,9300.0,10400.0,10900.0,10500.0,9500.0,9900.0,10300.0,10600.0,10300.0,9900.0,8900.0,8500.0,8700.0,9700.0,10200.0,9800.0,8800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[9700.0,9000.0,9500.0,10300.0,9200.0,8600.0,8300.0,8100.0,9000.0,9600.0,9200.0,9600.0,10000.0,9300.0,9800.0,10600.0,9500.0,8900.0,8600.0,8400.0,9300.0,9900.0,9500.0,9900.0,10500.0,9800.0,10300.0,11200.0,10000.0,9400.0,9000.0,8800.0,9800.0,10400.0,10000.0,10400.0,11000.0,10200.0,10700.0,11600.0,10400.0,9800.0,15500.0,14000.0,17000.0,11000.0,10400.0,10800.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,11800.0,11000.0,10600.0,10400.0,11500.0,12200.0,11700.0,12200.0,11700.0,10800.0,11300.0,12200.0,11000.0,10300.0,10000.0,9800.0,10800.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,18000.0,15000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12200.0,11700.0,12200.0,11400.0,10500.0,11000.0,11900.0,10700.0,10100.0,9700.0,9500.0,10500.0,11200.0,10700.0,11200.0,11700.0,10800.0,11300.0,12200.0,11000.0,10400.0,10000.0,9800.0,10800.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11100.0,11600.0,12500.0,11300.0,10700.0,10300.0,10100.0,11100.0,11800.0,11300.0,11800.0],"meta/muse-ember":null,"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[6834.0,6700.0,6901.0,6834.0,6767.0,6499.0,6365.0,6231.0,7035.0,7169.0,7102.0,6566.0,7446.0,7300.0,7519.0,7446.0,7373.0,7081.0,6935.0,6789.0,7665.0,7811.0,7738.0,7154.0,8262.0,8100.0,8343.0,8262.0,8181.0,7857.0,7695.0,7533.0,8505.0,8667.0,8586.0,7938.0,9384.0,9200.0,9476.0,9384.0,9292.0,8924.0,12673.0,9839.0,9660.0,9844.0,9752.0,9016.0,9894.0,9700.0,11989.0,12862.0,11952.0,10350.0,9676.0,9021.0,10185.0,10379.0,10282.0,9506.0,10710.0,10500.0,10815.0,10710.0,10605.0,10185.0,9975.0,9765.0,11025.0,11235.0,11130.0,10290.0,10506.0,10300.0,10609.0,10506.0,11963.0,14487.0,13210.0,11974.0,11897.0,11021.0,10918.0,10094.0,9690.0,9500.0,9785.0,9690.0,9595.0,9215.0,10108.0,9542.0,9975.0,10165.0,10070.0,9310.0,8772.0,8600.0,8858.0,8772.0,8686.0,8342.0,8170.0,7998.0,9030.0,9202.0,9116.0,8428.0,7956.0,7800.0,8034.0,7956.0,7878.0,7566.0,7410.0,7254.0,8190.0,8346.0,8268.0,7644.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[6100.0,5500.0,5800.0,6050.0,6300.0,6900.0,8400.0,6550.0,6050.0,6700.0,7000.0,15100.0,5950.0,5300.0,5600.0,5850.0,6050.0,6650.0,9200.0,6400.0,5900.0,10800.0,6500.0,11350.0,5850.0,5200.0,5500.0,8500.0,6000.0,6550.0,7900.0,6250.0,5750.0,6400.0,6550.0,9900.0,5900.0,5250.0,5600.0,5850.0,6150.0,6750.0,7550.0,6350.0,5850.0,6500.0,6750.0,9400.0,6350.0,5850.0,6900.0,7550.0,7700.0,7050.0,8400.0,7000.0,6400.0,7150.0,7450.0,11100.0,6550.0,5850.0,6200.0,6350.0,6650.0,8500.0,8150.0,6750.0,6200.0,6850.0,7150.0,10500.0,6600.0,5900.0,6250.0,6450.0,6750.0,7250.0,8700.0,7100.0,6500.0,7150.0,7450.0,10600.0,6950.0,6200.0,6550.0,6750.0,7050.0,8600.0,8900.0,7300.0,6700.0,7400.0,7700.0,11050.0,7350.0,6550.0,6900.0,7100.0,7450.0,10100.0,9200.0,7550.0,6900.0,7650.0,7950.0,11350.0,8000.0,7150.0,7550.0,8600.0,18400.0,14600.0,12100.0,8850.0,8100.0,8950.0,9300.0,12200.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3700.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,4600.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[6500.0,5500.0,6000.0,6700.0,6100.0,5900.0,6100.0,6800.0,6700.0,6000.0,6200.0,5700.0,6800.0,5800.0,6300.0,7500.0,6600.0,6200.0,6500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6500.0,6600.0,6100.0,7300.0,6200.0,6900.0,7300.0,6800.0,9800.0,7800.0,7600.0,7500.0,7000.0,7200.0,6500.0,7600.0,6500.0,7000.0,7700.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,7800.0,7700.0,7200.0,7300.0,6800.0,8200.0,7200.0,9600.0,9900.0,8900.0,8400.0,8600.0,9300.0,9200.0,8500.0,8800.0,8000.0,8700.0,7700.0,8200.0,8800.0,8200.0,7800.0,8000.0,8600.0,8500.0,7900.0,8100.0,7500.0,10000.0,8800.0,9500.0,22000.0,16500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11300.0,10500.0,10700.0,9800.0,10500.0,9200.0,9900.0,12500.0,10200.0,9600.0,9900.0,10600.0,10400.0,9800.0,10000.0,9400.0,10400.0,9200.0,9800.0,11000.0,10000.0,9600.0,9800.0,10500.0,10300.0,9700.0,9900.0,9300.0,10600.0,9300.0,10000.0,12000.0,10100.0,9800.0,9900.0,10600.0,10400.0,9700.0,9900.0,9400.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3900.0,3700.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,4100.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3900.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3700.0,3900.0,5400.0,4300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3900.0,4600.0,4400.0,4000.0,4300.0,4100.0,3800.0,3900.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0,3100.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2310.0,2420.0,2420.0,2310.0,2200.0,1980.0,1870.0,1980.0,2310.0,2310.0,2200.0,1870.0,2205.0,2310.0,2310.0,2205.0,2100.0,1890.0,1785.0,1890.0,2205.0,2205.0,2100.0,1785.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,1700.0,2415.0,2530.0,2530.0,2415.0,2300.0,2070.0,2155.0,2420.0,3015.0,2415.0,2300.0,1955.0,2205.0,2310.0,2310.0,2205.0,2100.0,1890.0,1785.0,1890.0,2205.0,2205.0,2100.0,1785.0,1995.0,2090.0,2090.0,1995.0,1900.0,1710.0,1615.0,1710.0,1995.0,1995.0,1900.0,1615.0,1890.0,1980.0,1980.0,1890.0,1800.0,1620.0,1530.0,1620.0,1890.0,1890.0,1800.0,1530.0,1785.0,1870.0,1870.0,1785.0,1700.0,1530.0,1445.0,1530.0,1785.0,1785.0,1700.0,1445.0,1575.0,1650.0,1650.0,1575.0,1500.0,1350.0,1275.0,1350.0,1575.0,1575.0,1500.0,1275.0,1365.0,1430.0,1430.0,1365.0,1300.0,1170.0,1105.0,1170.0,1365.0,1365.0,1300.0,1105.0]}},{"title":"Hervé Renard","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Hervé Renard\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[6066,7622,5608,3371,2610,4970,3025,2671,2829,4741,3421,3553,44590,5848,3828,2233,2504,2960,1840,1849,3243,6113,35375,9467,4683,3928,6697,5393,17668,270206,15721,5763,3917,4081,5196,4684,10321,4747,10582,5118,5941,26546,35605,6189,5954,5374,5994,7286,3635,3175,3153,4530,5064,3820,3469,4293,3432,4332,5383,2951,3772,4010,6939,10967,6315,9856,7136,4885,13694,11780,22968,7216,31307,11911,10389,14644,4618,7425,4335,4353,8709,9664,1177423,108975,21463,8442,36399,22811,8569,11265,114060,146039,10382,9510,9908,7522,75062,24947,8871,9893,6768,17743,72074,15896,8333,19255,55451,12643,8118,6025,11415,9466,6603,44885,12754,5263,8557,23746,10689,29225],"flat_reference_value":17018.78912974034,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6500.0,11000.0,8500.0,6000.0,5800.0,7200.0,5200.0,5000.0,7200.0,7500.0,8500.0,6000.0,42000.0,22000.0,8000.0,6500.0,6200.0,8500.0,6800.0,6500.0,10000.0,12000.0,30000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8500.0,11000.0,10000.0,18000.0,220000.0,50000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,10000.0,8500.0,10000.0,45000.0,65000.0,20000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7000.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,9000.0,7500.0,7000.0,10000.0,8000.0,7500.0,11000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,16000.0,12000.0,18000.0,12000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,14000.0,18000.0,750000.0,280000.0,50000.0,30000.0,130000.0,60000.0,35000.0,45000.0,220000.0,200000.0,45000.0,30000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,30000.0,28000.0,25000.0,22000.0,25000.0,85000.0,90000.0,28000.0,50000.0,30000.0,35000.0,26000.0,20000.0,30000.0,20000.0,19000.0,45000.0,35000.0,20000.0,22000.0,50000.0,25000.0,22000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[8500.0,22000.0,11500.0,7500.0,7200.0,8800.0,7000.0,6800.0,7900.0,9200.0,9500.0,7800.0,48000.0,26000.0,9500.0,7400.0,7600.0,8200.0,7100.0,7500.0,12500.0,14000.0,42000.0,21000.0,11500.0,9800.0,13500.0,11000.0,19000.0,390000.0,45000.0,16500.0,12000.0,11000.0,13500.0,10500.0,12000.0,9500.0,11500.0,9800.0,10500.0,46000.0,68000.0,16000.0,13500.0,12000.0,14500.0,15500.0,9800.0,8200.0,7200.0,6500.0,6800.0,6900.0,7100.0,7400.0,7600.0,8200.0,9500.0,7800.0,8500.0,7900.0,9800.0,7600.0,8100.0,12500.0,8800.0,8400.0,13000.0,16500.0,15000.0,18500.0,24000.0,16000.0,26000.0,29000.0,12500.0,14000.0,11500.0,12000.0,16500.0,24000.0,1150000.0,210000.0,38000.0,29000.0,135000.0,42000.0,24000.0,26000.0,145000.0,195000.0,32000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,78000.0,64000.0,28000.0,21000.0,22000.0,26000.0,88000.0,95000.0,29000.0,92000.0,54000.0,38000.0,31000.0,19000.0,34000.0,18500.0,19500.0,58000.0,26000.0,18000.0,25000.0,68000.0,36000.0,52000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[7800.0,26500.0,15400.0,9800.0,8900.0,9200.0,7600.0,8100.0,11300.0,13400.0,15200.0,11000.0,29400.0,26100.0,14200.0,10500.0,9800.0,12700.0,9100.0,11600.0,17400.0,18200.0,41500.0,19800.0,16200.0,14300.0,21500.0,18900.0,28600.0,118400.0,37200.0,14600.0,16100.0,17900.0,19500.0,13400.0,12800.0,11500.0,17600.0,13200.0,16400.0,29800.0,62300.0,33100.0,17800.0,16200.0,19400.0,14700.0,11200.0,9800.0,6900.0,5200.0,6100.0,6800.0,7400.0,7100.0,8500.0,9900.0,12600.0,9300.0,8900.0,8200.0,13400.0,9100.0,9700.0,17200.0,10400.0,9800.0,14100.0,21800.0,22400.0,15300.0,16900.0,18400.0,27200.0,18600.0,14200.0,16300.0,13100.0,13900.0,17800.0,26500.0,535000.0,87400.0,28600.0,23100.0,98400.0,42100.0,24800.0,28500.0,76400.0,128200.0,29600.0,24100.0,22300.0,19800.0,18500.0,26400.0,21200.0,20800.0,22500.0,24300.0,52100.0,78600.0,23400.0,81200.0,54700.0,31200.0,26800.0,23500.0,34200.0,22100.0,20400.0,38600.0,21800.0,20200.0,28400.0,32100.0,29500.0,24000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[9000.0,16000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,30000.0,22000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8500.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,11000.0,12000.0,32000.0,22000.0,14000.0,12000.0,14000.0,13000.0,20000.0,110000.0,30000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,13000.0,40000.0,55000.0,20000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,14000.0,16000.0,17000.0,14000.0,15000.0,22000.0,24000.0,15000.0,13000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,14000.0,18000.0,650000.0,130000.0,55000.0,40000.0,65000.0,35000.0,30000.0,32000.0,55000.0,50000.0,28000.0,25000.0,28000.0,24000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,25000.0,40000.0,38000.0,22000.0,50000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,22000.0,28000.0,21000.0,20000.0,28000.0,24000.0,21000.0,25000.0,60000.0,38000.0,50000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[14000.0,32000.0,18000.0,11000.0,10000.0,12000.0,9000.0,9000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,65000.0,22000.0,12000.0,9000.0,9000.0,11000.0,9000.0,9000.0,12000.0,13000.0,26000.0,14000.0,13000.0,11000.0,15000.0,12000.0,16000.0,160000.0,30000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,11000.0,40000.0,65000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,14000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,11000.0,650000.0,85000.0,20000.0,18000.0,60000.0,25000.0,15000.0,18000.0,70000.0,95000.0,18000.0,15000.0,13000.0,13000.0,17000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,40000.0,35000.0,13000.0,40000.0,22000.0,18000.0,14000.0,11000.0,15000.0,11000.0,11000.0,17000.0,12000.0,10000.0,12000.0,22000.0,14000.0,25000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[7000.0,22000.0,9000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,5500.0,4500.0,4500.0,5000.0,18000.0,12000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5000.0,6000.0,5000.0,5000.0,6500.0,8000.0,25000.0,12000.0,6000.0,5500.0,7000.0,5000.0,14000.0,80000.0,45000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,9000.0,6000.0,8000.0,38000.0,60000.0,18000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7000.0,8000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5500.0,7000.0,7000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,11000.0,8000.0,8000.0,12000.0,8000.0,8500.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,18000.0,10000.0,12000.0,14000.0,12000.0,14000.0,20000.0,18000.0,190000.0,75000.0,9000.0,15000.0,85000.0,28000.0,12000.0,14000.0,85000.0,120000.0,15000.0,16000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12000.0,18000.0,55000.0,70000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,35000.0,100000.0,25000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4200.0,11800.0,6800.0,5200.0,4800.0,4300.0,3900.0,4600.0,5900.0,6200.0,5800.0,4700.0,13500.0,8900.0,5400.0,4600.0,4800.0,5100.0,3800.0,4500.0,6500.0,11200.0,9800.0,5200.0,5300.0,4800.0,7200.0,5600.0,9400.0,38200.0,14200.0,5100.0,5600.0,5200.0,4900.0,4300.0,4800.0,4200.0,5000.0,4600.0,5200.0,12600.0,15400.0,7800.0,6800.0,6200.0,6500.0,7100.0,5600.0,5200.0,4100.0,3800.0,3600.0,3900.0,4200.0,4500.0,5100.0,5400.0,5800.0,4900.0,5100.0,4700.0,5500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,5200.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,8200.0,7400.0,6800.0,7900.0,5600.0,5400.0,5800.0,5200.0,6100.0,8900.0,10200.0,135400.0,48200.0,9800.0,7600.0,21300.0,10800.0,7400.0,6900.0,17400.0,22800.0,8200.0,7800.0,8100.0,6400.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,6200.0,6600.0,7800.0,24600.0,18500.0,8300.0,25400.0,11200.0,9800.0,7200.0,6600.0,8400.0,6800.0,6400.0,7100.0,6200.0,6700.0,8900.0,12300.0,10600.0,8600.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3500.0,4200.0,3400.0,3000.0,2800.0,3600.0,3000.0,2800.0,3300.0,4800.0,5600.0,3600.0,13500.0,5200.0,3600.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3000.0,3000.0,5200.0,7200.0,11500.0,6200.0,5800.0,5000.0,5200.0,4800.0,6500.0,85000.0,22000.0,8000.0,8200.0,8000.0,8800.0,6200.0,7000.0,6600.0,6400.0,6000.0,7000.0,28000.0,34000.0,10500.0,11000.0,8500.0,8500.0,7500.0,8500.0,7800.0,6200.0,4800.0,4800.0,5200.0,5200.0,5600.0,8200.0,8200.0,9000.0,7200.0,8200.0,8000.0,8200.0,7200.0,7200.0,8500.0,7500.0,7000.0,10500.0,10500.0,11500.0,7800.0,9500.0,8500.0,12500.0,8500.0,8500.0,10500.0,8200.0,8200.0,9500.0,13500.0,300000.0,48000.0,24000.0,15000.0,42000.0,19000.0,15500.0,19000.0,42000.0,52000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,14500.0,15500.0,21000.0,15500.0,13500.0,14500.0,15500.0,32000.0,42000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,14500.0,14500.0,14500.0,15500.0,13500.0,14500.0,21000.0,45000.0,26000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,14000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3000.0,9000.0,5000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3000.0,3500.0,4000.0,3500.0,15000.0,8000.0,5000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4500.0,4000.0,4000.0,5000.0,6000.0,10000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,7000.0,7000.0,10000.0,80000.0,25000.0,10000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9000.0,20000.0,35000.0,20000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,10000.0,7000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,7000.0,6000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,9000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,10000.0,12000.0,10000.0,10000.0,12000.0,15000.0,350000.0,120000.0,40000.0,20000.0,35000.0,20000.0,15000.0,15000.0,60000.0,80000.0,25000.0,18000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,18000.0,20000.0,70000.0,60000.0,25000.0,45000.0,25000.0,20000.0,18000.0,16000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,20000.0,18000.0,16000.0,18000.0,20000.0,25000.0,20000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[515.0,483.0,497.0,460.0,451.0,432.0,391.0,386.0,446.0,483.0,497.0,451.0,498.0,467.0,481.0,445.0,436.0,418.0,378.0,374.0,432.0,467.0,481.0,436.0,482.0,452.0,464.0,430.0,421.0,404.0,366.0,361.0,417.0,452.0,464.0,421.0,465.0,436.0,448.0,415.0,407.0,390.0,353.0,349.0,402.0,436.0,448.0,407.0,493.0,462.0,546.0,506.0,496.0,476.0,374.0,370.0,427.0,462.0,475.0,431.0,459.0,431.0,443.0,410.0,402.0,385.0,349.0,344.0,398.0,431.0,443.0,402.0,437.0,410.0,421.0,390.0,382.0,367.0,332.0,328.0,378.0,410.0,421.0,382.0,414.0,389.0,400.0,370.0,363.0,348.0,315.0,311.0,359.0,389.0,400.0,363.0,392.0,368.0,378.0,350.0,343.0,329.0,298.0,294.0,340.0,368.0,378.0,343.0,370.0,347.0,356.0,330.0,323.0,310.0,281.0,277.0,320.0,347.0,356.0,323.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4200.0,12500.0,8500.0,6500.0,6000.0,5800.0,5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,6500.0,7200.0,8200.0,19000.0,15000.0,8200.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,6000.0,5800.0,6500.0,7400.0,8300.0,9200.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,13000.0,18000.0,58000.0,42000.0,16000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,14500.0,16000.0,18000.0,21000.0,38000.0,27000.0,19000.0,17500.0,19000.0,27000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,21000.0,18500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,18500.0,20500.0,22000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,29000.0,26000.0,24500.0,28000.0,25500.0,24000.0,27000.0,30000.0,36000.0,48000.0,40000.0,43000.0,48000.0,45000.0,50000.0,68000.0,42000.0,44000.0,48000.0,54000.0,250000.0,135000.0,58000.0,62000.0,66000.0,60000.0,64000.0,70000.0,98000.0,118000.0,68000.0,60000.0,57000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,54000.0,49000.0,52000.0,58000.0,86000.0,102000.0,62000.0,76000.0,60000.0,53000.0,50000.0,52000.0,60000.0,54000.0,51000.0,66000.0,49000.0,47000.0,68000.0,62000.0,72000.0,58000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[29800.0,31600.0,19400.0,30900.0,57800.0,52400.0,24200.0,20600.0,19400.0,20800.0,19200.0,18800.0,39500.0,35800.0,18200.0,17500.0,18200.0,18900.0,112600.0,61500.0,19200.0,18100.0,17600.0,17400.0,17900.0,18300.0,38600.0,18100.0,19200.0,76800.0,92500.0,43200.0,20100.0,18600.0,18400.0,18100.0,18700.0,18400.0,18900.0,18600.0,20100.0,72500.0,104800.0,68700.0,31800.0,20400.0,19200.0,18800.0,18600.0,19100.0,66500.0,30800.0,20800.0,29500.0,24200.0,18900.0,20400.0,19600.0,22100.0,107500.0,18700.0,18300.0,19200.0,18900.0,21500.0,106000.0,63500.0,25400.0,21200.0,19800.0,19400.0,20100.0,47500.0,45200.0,19700.0,18900.0,21300.0,23800.0,22400.0,21700.0,21200.0,26500.0,83000.0,109500.0,68400.0,77200.0,20300.0,19900.0,39500.0,68800.0,42300.0,25900.0,23100.0,22200.0,23000.0,36500.0,28700.0,20400.0,19800.0,38600.0,74200.0,85800.0,97500.0,25100.0,21300.0,20100.0,21400.0,20300.0,174600.0,101500.0,61200.0,47800.0,53400.0,105500.0,94800.0,88700.0,65200.0,58900.0,63400.0,56800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,13000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,45000.0,80000.0,30000.0,22000.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,22000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,30000.0,120000.0,70000.0,30000.0,25000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,22000.0,25000.0,22000.0,22000.0,45000.0,50000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,22000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,24000.0,30000.0,40000.0,280000.0,110000.0,50000.0,45000.0,42000.0,45000.0,45000.0,55000.0,90000.0,85000.0,50000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,50000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,36000.0,42000.0,36000.0,36000.0,42000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,52000.0,42000.0,40000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[18000.0,24000.0,22000.0,15000.0,13000.0,18000.0,26000.0,20000.0,12000.0,9000.0,7500.0,7000.0,28000.0,25000.0,15000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,12000.0,16000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,35000.0,30000.0,16000.0,14000.0,20000.0,95000.0,150000.0,42000.0,25000.0,18000.0,26000.0,14000.0,13000.0,16000.0,12000.0,11000.0,12000.0,55000.0,92000.0,48000.0,22000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,10000.0,12500.0,9000.0,7000.0,7000.0,9500.0,10500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,11500.0,14000.0,15000.0,12500.0,14500.0,22000.0,16000.0,14000.0,19000.0,17500.0,32000.0,27000.0,16000.0,31000.0,21000.0,15500.0,14500.0,18000.0,15500.0,17000.0,26000.0,55000.0,720000.0,230000.0,20000.0,75000.0,52000.0,23000.0,20000.0,26000.0,48000.0,210000.0,55000.0,32000.0,20000.0,18000.0,38000.0,31000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,18000.0,23000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,15000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,19000.0,32000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1800.0,4200.0,2400.0,1900.0,1800.0,2100.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2200.0,3300.0,2100.0,13000.0,4300.0,2300.0,2000.0,2200.0,3100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2500.0,3100.0,9000.0,2800.0,2300.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,3500.0,42000.0,12000.0,3400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2700.0,2200.0,2400.0,2100.0,2600.0,2200.0,2600.0,10500.0,22000.0,11000.0,4800.0,4000.0,3200.0,2800.0,2800.0,2600.0,2100.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,2600.0,2700.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,3000.0,2000.0,2200.0,2600.0,2800.0,2400.0,4800.0,3200.0,4000.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,5200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3200.0,3500.0,5500.0,85000.0,18000.0,4500.0,3800.0,13500.0,12000.0,5000.0,4300.0,10000.0,19000.0,7000.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,4000.0,3500.0,3600.0,4200.0,8000.0,11000.0,5500.0,9500.0,8500.0,5000.0,4200.0,4000.0,4800.0,3900.0,4200.0,6000.0,3900.0,4100.0,5000.0,10000.0,5500.0,4300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[380.0,400.0,390.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,420.0,460.0,430.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,355.0,350.0,350.0,345.0,340.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,360.0,355.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,420.0,410.0,400.0,430.0,440.0,450.0,460.0,440.0,420.0,400.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,390.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,370.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,380.0,450.0,400.0,400.0,380.0,380.0,390.0,400.0,420.0,800.0,60000.0,15000.0,4500.0,2200.0,1600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,800.0,780.0,740.0,720.0,700.0,690.0,680.0,670.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,640.0]}},{"title":"Czech Republic national football team","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Czech Republic national football team\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[17547,17616,33142,21262,48279,159094,27879,18300,20232,23742,19665,10788,12215,11427,23547,14150,14984,28177,14921,18321,26465,25709,20501,14800,13597,12185,26247,13972,19243,52753,39808,18435,25638,21025,20347,19109,16324,13782,65825,16343,17347,23836,13396,14768,26860,48708,29825,14164,15038,14051,15850,19878,19185,17223,16830,17446,36747,27015,27978,20825,30743,16832,53574,24691,37758,320892,92319,21931,25023,24301,28310,17450,16287,15647,37605,16618,19414,38660,16198,18199,38299,20619,34759,45589,21835,21090,41258,18013,19158,31982,20856,21737,32582,34170,39642,25428,21606,23113,40732,23041,33943,186392,37583,16628,22150,20684,19289,14293,15460,12651,25901,14098,14953,24081,13802,16052,22366,27481,52108,23431],"flat_reference_value":16933.878116740903,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[18000.0,20000.0,30000.0,22000.0,38000.0,240000.0,42000.0,20000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,26000.0,19000.0,20000.0,30000.0,17000.0,20000.0,39000.0,28000.0,25000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,28000.0,19000.0,20000.0,27000.0,22000.0,18000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,19000.0,17000.0,19000.0,44000.0,21000.0,20000.0,31000.0,18000.0,19000.0,31000.0,55000.0,38000.0,24000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,37000.0,23000.0,30000.0,280000.0,105000.0,27000.0,40000.0,36000.0,34000.0,22000.0,20000.0,22000.0,43000.0,23000.0,22000.0,50000.0,21000.0,21000.0,38000.0,23000.0,26000.0,23000.0,19000.0,20000.0,36000.0,21000.0,21000.0,30000.0,18000.0,20000.0,30000.0,32000.0,40000.0,27000.0,21000.0,22000.0,32000.0,23000.0,34000.0,300000.0,38000.0,21000.0,35000.0,32000.0,35000.0,22000.0,19000.0,20000.0,34000.0,21000.0,22000.0,39000.0,19000.0,21000.0,35000.0,34000.0,42000.0,24000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[14200.0,13600.0,23500.0,15800.0,31400.0,155000.0,22400.0,15900.0,23800.0,26400.0,22100.0,13400.0,12900.0,12200.0,22600.0,13500.0,14100.0,24300.0,13200.0,14500.0,27800.0,25900.0,19800.0,13100.0,12800.0,11900.0,19400.0,12600.0,15200.0,29500.0,21200.0,13700.0,23400.0,24100.0,23600.0,16500.0,13200.0,12700.0,56200.0,14800.0,14200.0,23900.0,13600.0,14400.0,26100.0,59800.0,36400.0,17900.0,13800.0,13100.0,10800.0,8600.0,9200.0,10400.0,10900.0,13500.0,28400.0,25700.0,26900.0,16800.0,13900.0,13400.0,39200.0,17500.0,29800.0,385000.0,155000.0,18600.0,27400.0,25800.0,31500.0,16200.0,14800.0,14100.0,41200.0,15300.0,16400.0,37800.0,14900.0,15200.0,29600.0,17800.0,38400.0,29100.0,14600.0,13500.0,32400.0,14700.0,14900.0,24800.0,13800.0,14500.0,25600.0,27200.0,37900.0,25400.0,16100.0,14200.0,24900.0,16800.0,28700.0,255000.0,42500.0,15600.0,26800.0,25100.0,27900.0,17400.0,12900.0,11800.0,26400.0,13200.0,13600.0,25800.0,12400.0,13100.0,27100.0,28500.0,33200.0,23600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[18200.0,17500.0,21300.0,20400.0,38500.0,185000.0,35000.0,19000.0,25200.0,24100.0,22800.0,16500.0,17100.0,15800.0,22400.0,18200.0,17500.0,23000.0,17200.0,18900.0,24500.0,22100.0,19800.0,16200.0,16800.0,16200.0,20500.0,17400.0,19200.0,27800.0,24100.0,17500.0,22300.0,24500.0,21400.0,16800.0,16500.0,15900.0,28400.0,17200.0,18100.0,24600.0,16500.0,17200.0,23800.0,36500.0,29200.0,18400.0,17100.0,16500.0,13200.0,10800.0,11500.0,14200.0,15600.0,16200.0,24800.0,22500.0,23100.0,16400.0,17800.0,16900.0,28500.0,19200.0,35400.0,275000.0,115000.0,22500.0,27200.0,25800.0,24100.0,18200.0,17500.0,16800.0,32400.0,18100.0,18900.0,32500.0,18200.0,17600.0,26400.0,19500.0,23100.0,21500.0,18400.0,16500.0,28200.0,17800.0,17100.0,24200.0,17500.0,18200.0,23900.0,25100.0,31500.0,19200.0,19500.0,17800.0,26200.0,21500.0,36400.0,225000.0,32000.0,18500.0,24800.0,23500.0,22900.0,17200.0,17500.0,16200.0,24800.0,18500.0,17200.0,23500.0,16800.0,17500.0,24100.0,23800.0,22500.0,16900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[24000.0,23000.0,30000.0,26000.0,45000.0,160000.0,40000.0,24000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,24000.0,20000.0,20000.0,24000.0,19000.0,20000.0,25000.0,25000.0,22000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,22000.0,19000.0,20000.0,28000.0,24000.0,19000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,26000.0,19000.0,18000.0,24000.0,17000.0,17000.0,25000.0,30000.0,27000.0,24000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,24000.0,20000.0,30000.0,230000.0,110000.0,27000.0,28000.0,24000.0,25000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,27000.0,18000.0,17000.0,22000.0,16000.0,16000.0,20000.0,17000.0,22000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,22000.0,16000.0,15000.0,19000.0,14000.0,14000.0,19000.0,21000.0,23000.0,20000.0,17000.0,17000.0,22000.0,19000.0,30000.0,150000.0,35000.0,17000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,20000.0,14000.0,14000.0,20000.0,13000.0,13000.0,20000.0,22000.0,24000.0,18000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[42000.0,40000.0,58000.0,48000.0,78000.0,320000.0,68000.0,40000.0,50000.0,54000.0,48000.0,34000.0,36000.0,33000.0,44000.0,35000.0,34000.0,45000.0,35000.0,36000.0,48000.0,50000.0,42000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,42000.0,32000.0,36000.0,58000.0,48000.0,30000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,46000.0,29000.0,28000.0,40000.0,29000.0,28000.0,42000.0,56000.0,48000.0,32000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,26000.0,46000.0,40000.0,40000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,50000.0,32000.0,50000.0,380000.0,190000.0,36000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,48000.0,28000.0,28000.0,46000.0,27000.0,26000.0,40000.0,28000.0,44000.0,42000.0,27000.0,25000.0,42000.0,26000.0,25000.0,36000.0,25000.0,25000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,38000.0,28000.0,42000.0,270000.0,60000.0,28000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,38000.0,26000.0,25000.0,38000.0,26000.0,26000.0,38000.0,44000.0,40000.0,30000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6500.0,6000.0,7500.0,5500.0,9000.0,55000.0,25000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,7000.0,4500.0,5000.0,6500.0,4500.0,5000.0,7500.0,8000.0,6000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4200.0,7000.0,4000.0,5500.0,12000.0,9000.0,4500.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,8000.0,4000.0,4500.0,8000.0,3800.0,4000.0,8500.0,12000.0,9000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3500.0,5000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,7000.0,8000.0,8500.0,3200.0,3500.0,3400.0,9000.0,3800.0,8000.0,85000.0,60000.0,6000.0,8000.0,9000.0,10000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,12000.0,3400.0,4000.0,12000.0,3500.0,3500.0,12000.0,4000.0,10000.0,6000.0,3800.0,3600.0,9000.0,3400.0,3800.0,8000.0,3400.0,3600.0,8000.0,8000.0,11000.0,3600.0,3800.0,3600.0,8000.0,3600.0,7000.0,75000.0,12000.0,3800.0,8000.0,8000.0,9000.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,7000.0,3400.0,4000.0,5000.0,3500.0,3500.0,5000.0,8000.0,10000.0,3500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[14500.0,13800.0,17800.0,17200.0,24800.0,135000.0,18500.0,15200.0,24300.0,22800.0,21600.0,12400.0,12800.0,12500.0,20700.0,14200.0,14800.0,20800.0,12500.0,18900.0,22400.0,23500.0,16800.0,11800.0,12000.0,11800.0,16500.0,12500.0,14300.0,16800.0,11200.0,13200.0,20100.0,22500.0,21000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11800.0,28500.0,13200.0,13800.0,22500.0,11800.0,14200.0,26800.0,34500.0,31200.0,12800.0,12200.0,12600.0,10800.0,8200.0,8800.0,10200.0,9600.0,11800.0,17800.0,19200.0,18500.0,11000.0,12400.0,12100.0,20800.0,13800.0,22500.0,185000.0,72000.0,14500.0,21800.0,22500.0,21000.0,12500.0,12800.0,13500.0,28500.0,13200.0,14000.0,19800.0,10800.0,12500.0,19200.0,13500.0,14800.0,11200.0,11800.0,11500.0,19800.0,12200.0,12800.0,20800.0,10500.0,13000.0,21500.0,22800.0,26500.0,11200.0,12500.0,12800.0,19200.0,13500.0,21800.0,142000.0,17800.0,13200.0,20500.0,19800.0,18700.0,10800.0,11500.0,11800.0,19500.0,12100.0,12800.0,18200.0,10200.0,12800.0,20800.0,22500.0,21800.0,10800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[34000.0,32000.0,36000.0,32000.0,45000.0,320000.0,120000.0,30000.0,55000.0,60000.0,55000.0,28000.0,32000.0,30000.0,48000.0,28000.0,28000.0,38000.0,26000.0,28000.0,58000.0,52000.0,38000.0,25000.0,30000.0,28000.0,32000.0,26000.0,28000.0,45000.0,38000.0,28000.0,48000.0,55000.0,48000.0,25000.0,32000.0,30000.0,75000.0,30000.0,30000.0,55000.0,28000.0,28000.0,70000.0,145000.0,115000.0,32000.0,35000.0,32000.0,22000.0,18000.0,20000.0,24000.0,22000.0,24000.0,85000.0,60000.0,55000.0,28000.0,38000.0,35000.0,65000.0,38000.0,55000.0,720000.0,480000.0,70000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,110000.0,35000.0,35000.0,130000.0,38000.0,32000.0,105000.0,35000.0,55000.0,45000.0,38000.0,35000.0,85000.0,35000.0,32000.0,85000.0,30000.0,32000.0,70000.0,80000.0,95000.0,35000.0,48000.0,42000.0,55000.0,42000.0,55000.0,340000.0,190000.0,55000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,85000.0,40000.0,40000.0,75000.0,38000.0,38000.0,85000.0,95000.0,90000.0,42000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,4800.0,5200.0,28000.0,16000.0,5600.0,6500.0,6000.0,5600.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,5800.0,5200.0,5000.0,6200.0,5200.0,5600.0,7200.0,6800.0,6200.0,5200.0,5200.0,5600.0,6800.0,5400.0,5800.0,7200.0,6200.0,6000.0,7800.0,8200.0,7600.0,5800.0,5800.0,6200.0,9000.0,6800.0,6200.0,7800.0,6200.0,6800.0,8400.0,14500.0,9800.0,6800.0,6800.0,7200.0,8800.0,6200.0,5800.0,6800.0,6200.0,6800.0,8800.0,9800.0,9200.0,6800.0,6800.0,7200.0,10000.0,7200.0,7800.0,58000.0,28000.0,8800.0,10500.0,9800.0,10500.0,7200.0,7800.0,8200.0,11500.0,7800.0,8200.0,14500.0,8800.0,8200.0,11500.0,8800.0,9800.0,7800.0,7800.0,8200.0,11500.0,8800.0,8200.0,11500.0,8200.0,8800.0,11500.0,10500.0,11500.0,8200.0,8200.0,8800.0,9800.0,8800.0,9200.0,44000.0,19000.0,9200.0,11500.0,10500.0,10500.0,8800.0,8800.0,9200.0,11500.0,9200.0,9200.0,10500.0,9200.0,9200.0,11500.0,10500.0,10500.0,8800.0],"meta/muse-ember":[17500.0,18000.0,23500.0,17500.0,30000.0,130000.0,34000.0,18500.0,27500.0,24000.0,25000.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,22500.0,17500.0,19000.0,20500.0,17000.0,17000.0,28500.0,21500.0,20000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18500.0,22500.0,17500.0,25000.0,26500.0,20000.0,18000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,26000.0,18000.0,25000.0,30000.0,18000.0,18000.0,28500.0,47500.0,34000.0,19000.0,18500.0,19000.0,22500.0,17000.0,18000.0,20000.0,17500.0,18500.0,24000.0,26000.0,27500.0,18000.0,19000.0,19500.0,28500.0,19000.0,27500.0,205000.0,58000.0,26000.0,28500.0,30000.0,26000.0,20000.0,19500.0,20000.0,24000.0,19000.0,24000.0,34000.0,19000.0,19000.0,30000.0,20000.0,22500.0,18500.0,20000.0,20500.0,35000.0,20000.0,21500.0,26000.0,19000.0,19500.0,30000.0,28500.0,35000.0,26000.0,21500.0,22000.0,25000.0,21000.0,28500.0,118000.0,24000.0,21500.0,27500.0,27000.0,28500.0,22000.0,22000.0,22500.0,30000.0,22000.0,23500.0,32000.0,23000.0,22500.0,34000.0,32000.0,37500.0,24000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[37000.0,40000.0,52000.0,44000.0,48000.0,650000.0,430000.0,75000.0,55000.0,53000.0,50000.0,34000.0,40000.0,43000.0,60000.0,48000.0,52000.0,59000.0,55000.0,50000.0,78000.0,72000.0,66000.0,37000.0,43000.0,46000.0,62000.0,52000.0,56000.0,72000.0,66000.0,54000.0,88000.0,92000.0,82000.0,40000.0,48000.0,52000.0,132000.0,58000.0,63000.0,175000.0,61000.0,57000.0,108000.0,128000.0,142000.0,44000.0,54000.0,58000.0,72000.0,48000.0,53000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,96000.0,106000.0,92000.0,40000.0,62000.0,66000.0,165000.0,72000.0,79000.0,1180000.0,1640000.0,215000.0,152000.0,162000.0,142000.0,58000.0,66000.0,70000.0,520000.0,74000.0,80000.0,79000.0,73000.0,70000.0,112000.0,122000.0,106000.0,62000.0,58000.0,62000.0,152000.0,68000.0,74000.0,188000.0,67000.0,64000.0,132000.0,152000.0,235000.0,54000.0,60000.0,64000.0,148000.0,70000.0,76000.0,780000.0,390000.0,152000.0,142000.0,162000.0,148000.0,56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,138000.0,60000.0,66000.0,195000.0,58000.0,56000.0,138000.0,152000.0,128000.0,42000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[43200.0,40800.0,48900.0,43600.0,71800.0,716000.0,124000.0,39200.0,62400.0,57500.0,55100.0,43500.0,41700.0,39600.0,53800.0,60900.0,43900.0,40300.0,37200.0,35900.0,49600.0,101000.0,86200.0,43600.0,44100.0,42000.0,57600.0,43800.0,42400.0,54100.0,41500.0,39600.0,48700.0,44300.0,49500.0,42400.0,43000.0,40900.0,55200.0,42100.0,41200.0,58400.0,42500.0,39700.0,52300.0,54900.0,57800.0,43200.0,44100.0,42600.0,31000.0,27600.0,26000.0,27800.0,29200.0,28500.0,42600.0,44900.0,50100.0,44300.0,47300.0,45000.0,65600.0,50200.0,83200.0,798000.0,221000.0,70800.0,52500.0,45400.0,43700.0,44500.0,45700.0,44100.0,186000.0,48400.0,41500.0,50700.0,39700.0,38200.0,51400.0,47100.0,55600.0,44900.0,48100.0,46500.0,61300.0,50600.0,52700.0,61200.0,46700.0,44000.0,55400.0,57700.0,68000.0,50200.0,59300.0,61600.0,64500.0,57100.0,115000.0,1220000.0,328000.0,63500.0,76200.0,66100.0,141000.0,61100.0,63200.0,61700.0,72100.0,56600.0,54500.0,70500.0,52300.0,47700.0,64000.0,57400.0,68200.0,59800.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,12000.0,16000.0,48000.0,18000.0,11000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,12000.0,9500.0,9500.0,12000.0,8500.0,8500.0,13000.0,13000.0,10000.0,8000.0,8000.0,7800.0,10000.0,8000.0,8000.0,11000.0,8000.0,7500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,7500.0,7500.0,7500.0,12000.0,8500.0,8000.0,11000.0,8000.0,7500.0,10000.0,12500.0,13000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,8000.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,6500.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,11000.0,7500.0,9500.0,30000.0,13000.0,8000.0,9000.0,8000.0,9000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6800.0,8500.0,6800.0,6800.0,9000.0,6500.0,6500.0,9000.0,7000.0,8500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,10500.0,7000.0,7000.0,9500.0,6500.0,6500.0,8500.0,9500.0,10000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,9500.0,7500.0,9500.0,26000.0,9000.0,7000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,11500.0,7500.0,7500.0,10000.0,7000.0,7000.0,9500.0,10000.0,11500.0,8000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3900.0,4100.0,5200.0,4600.0,7300.0,68000.0,45000.0,16000.0,12500.0,11200.0,9400.0,5100.0,4300.0,4400.0,9800.0,10300.0,7600.0,11800.0,5300.0,5600.0,10800.0,12400.0,8800.0,5200.0,4500.0,4600.0,8200.0,5300.0,6000.0,11500.0,10400.0,5800.0,9000.0,10200.0,9700.0,5500.0,4700.0,4800.0,13500.0,14200.0,12800.0,16500.0,6200.0,6500.0,17800.0,19500.0,21400.0,6800.0,5000.0,5100.0,5900.0,4000.0,4500.0,6200.0,7100.0,8200.0,16200.0,17800.0,19700.0,6700.0,5300.0,5500.0,13800.0,14600.0,19800.0,145000.0,325000.0,28000.0,19500.0,20800.0,25400.0,7200.0,5400.0,5600.0,92000.0,12500.0,7800.0,12800.0,13900.0,10200.0,16800.0,18200.0,9800.0,6500.0,5200.0,5400.0,15200.0,16400.0,12700.0,17800.0,6300.0,6500.0,17000.0,19800.0,22500.0,7600.0,5600.0,5800.0,14000.0,8500.0,12900.0,112000.0,76000.0,13800.0,19500.0,20800.0,16800.0,7400.0,5200.0,5400.0,15600.0,16900.0,11200.0,17600.0,6800.0,7200.0,16000.0,18400.0,15800.0,7000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[6200.0,5800.0,7500.0,6500.0,7800.0,48000.0,14500.0,7000.0,8000.0,9000.0,9000.0,6000.0,5600.0,5300.0,7200.0,6000.0,6300.0,8200.0,5600.0,5700.0,8500.0,9000.0,7200.0,5200.0,5100.0,4800.0,6800.0,5400.0,5700.0,7000.0,5600.0,5900.0,9500.0,8500.0,9000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,10500.0,5400.0,5700.0,8500.0,5200.0,5600.0,9500.0,11000.0,10500.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,6200.0,4300.0,4400.0,5200.0,4500.0,4700.0,7800.0,8300.0,8000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,7500.0,4800.0,5400.0,78000.0,39000.0,6500.0,8500.0,8200.0,8000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,22000.0,5000.0,5200.0,15500.0,5000.0,4800.0,10500.0,4800.0,4600.0,5000.0,4400.0,4200.0,8500.0,4600.0,4800.0,8200.0,4500.0,4700.0,7600.0,9500.0,11000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,8500.0,4700.0,5200.0,62000.0,9000.0,5000.0,7500.0,8500.0,7800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,7800.0,4400.0,4600.0,7000.0,4300.0,4500.0,10500.0,9500.0,10000.0,4300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3900.0,3700.0,4300.0,3600.0,4200.0,9800.0,4800.0,3200.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3600.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,2800.0,3000.0,3400.0,3100.0,3500.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,3200.0,2600.0,2900.0,3400.0,3300.0,2300.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2900.0,2300.0,2400.0,2700.0,2000.0,2200.0,2600.0,2600.0,2900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,1900.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2600.0,2100.0,2800.0,6800.0,4500.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,2300.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,1900.0,2400.0,2200.0,1800.0,1700.0,2000.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1900.0,1500.0,1700.0,3200.0,1500.0,1500.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1700.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1200.0,1300.0,1500.0,1400.0,1600.0,1300.0]}},{"title":"App store","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"App store\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[13198,13544,14306,11659,11743,10982,10979,11438,12460,11768,12234,15808,15500,15223,16612,13948,82815,12834,13123,12742,10550,10272,9874,10076,10078,9330,12759,12180,11485,12213,13134,12837,12264,12748,13446,13395,12746,11843,15460,15798,12902,12465,10568,11036,10433,13853,12842,12896,14771,11620,14387,15201,10895,8275,9060,10089,11882,10876,11199,9853,10381,9484,10311,9559,9559,7916,7925,8491,8200,9357,9025,10712,15685,13092,13836,12671,13016,12554,12200,12376,12496,14467,36088,45856,49159,43386,30031,20533,26466,21731,14802,11446,11216,9620,8622,9223,11117,11330,13334,12645,10782,10396,11391,11637,12363,20588,17579,20762,21525,16029,15276,13813,23796,18055,25433,33410,30880,28861,28587,27114],"flat_reference_value":16980.658532274632,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[15800.0,15100.0,16600.0,15800.0,16200.0,15200.0,14600.0,15300.0,16100.0,17100.0,16400.0,15700.0,16300.0,14800.0,16500.0,15600.0,16200.0,15300.0,14500.0,15100.0,16400.0,16700.0,15800.0,15100.0,16000.0,14500.0,16100.0,15400.0,15700.0,14900.0,14300.0,15000.0,15600.0,16200.0,15300.0,14800.0,15500.0,14100.0,15500.0,14800.0,15500.0,14400.0,13900.0,14600.0,15100.0,15700.0,14900.0,14500.0,15100.0,14300.0,16300.0,17200.0,16600.0,16000.0,15500.0,27000.0,21500.0,18300.0,16900.0,16200.0,16900.0,15500.0,17100.0,17400.0,20500.0,17400.0,16000.0,16700.0,19200.0,17300.0,16300.0,15600.0,16200.0,14700.0,16200.0,15300.0,15700.0,14900.0,14200.0,14900.0,15600.0,16000.0,15000.0,14300.0,15100.0,13600.0,15000.0,14200.0,14900.0,14000.0,13400.0,14000.0,14600.0,15200.0,14400.0,13800.0,15800.0,16000.0,19000.0,15700.0,15100.0,14300.0,13900.0,15100.0,14900.0,15200.0,14200.0,13600.0,14300.0,13000.0,14300.0,13900.0,14800.0,13400.0,12900.0,13400.0,14000.0,14400.0,13600.0,13000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[25400.0,23600.0,25100.0,24300.0,24000.0,21800.0,21500.0,22100.0,23900.0,24800.0,24200.0,23100.0,24500.0,22100.0,24200.0,23100.0,22800.0,20900.0,20400.0,20800.0,22400.0,23300.0,22700.0,21500.0,22600.0,20300.0,22100.0,21400.0,21000.0,19100.0,18800.0,19200.0,20500.0,21400.0,20800.0,19700.0,20900.0,18900.0,20700.0,19800.0,23400.0,18900.0,18200.0,18500.0,19900.0,20600.0,19800.0,18900.0,20100.0,18600.0,20800.0,21900.0,21200.0,19500.0,19100.0,27800.0,22900.0,21100.0,20200.0,19300.0,19900.0,17900.0,19400.0,18900.0,22300.0,18100.0,17200.0,17600.0,21400.0,18800.0,18100.0,17100.0,17800.0,16100.0,17600.0,16800.0,16500.0,15100.0,14800.0,15000.0,16200.0,16700.0,16100.0,15200.0,15800.0,14100.0,15300.0,14400.0,14000.0,12900.0,12500.0,12700.0,13600.0,14000.0,13500.0,12600.0,13900.0,13400.0,16800.0,13700.0,12800.0,11600.0,11300.0,11500.0,12200.0,12600.0,12000.0,11300.0,11800.0,10600.0,11500.0,11100.0,10900.0,9900.0,9700.0,9800.0,10500.0,10800.0,10300.0,9700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[31200.0,32800.0,34100.0,33500.0,31900.0,28400.0,27100.0,28900.0,32200.0,34600.0,33900.0,28700.0,30400.0,31100.0,32600.0,30800.0,29500.0,26200.0,24900.0,26700.0,29800.0,31500.0,30600.0,26100.0,28200.0,27900.0,29400.0,27800.0,26400.0,23600.0,22400.0,24100.0,26800.0,28100.0,27300.0,23200.0,25400.0,25100.0,26900.0,25300.0,23900.0,21500.0,20400.0,21800.0,24200.0,25700.0,24800.0,21100.0,23300.0,22900.0,24100.0,23500.0,22200.0,20100.0,19500.0,26400.0,25100.0,23800.0,22700.0,19600.0,21400.0,20800.0,22100.0,21300.0,24200.0,19200.0,18100.0,19400.0,21200.0,21900.0,21100.0,18200.0,19800.0,19400.0,20600.0,19500.0,18700.0,16800.0,15900.0,17100.0,18900.0,19600.0,18800.0,16200.0,17800.0,17200.0,18400.0,17100.0,16500.0,14900.0,14200.0,15300.0,16800.0,17400.0,16700.0,14400.0,17900.0,18300.0,19100.0,16600.0,15800.0,14200.0,13600.0,14500.0,15900.0,16400.0,15700.0,13500.0,14900.0,14500.0,15400.0,14300.0,13800.0,12400.0,11800.0,12700.0,14100.0,14600.0,13900.0,12100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[26000.0,24000.0,24500.0,23500.0,23000.0,21500.0,20500.0,21000.0,22500.0,23000.0,23500.0,24500.0,25000.0,23000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22000.0,20500.0,19500.0,20000.0,21500.0,21500.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21500.0,20500.0,20000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,20500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,16500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,24000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,18500.0,15500.0,14500.0,16000.0,17500.0,15000.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,14500.0,13500.0,16000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[66000.0,62000.0,63000.0,60000.0,60000.0,57000.0,58000.0,58000.0,59000.0,60000.0,59000.0,60000.0,62000.0,56000.0,58000.0,54000.0,54000.0,51000.0,51000.0,51000.0,52000.0,52000.0,51000.0,51000.0,53000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,45000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,39000.0,36000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,40000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,18500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[30000.0,28000.0,29500.0,28000.0,27500.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27500.0,28000.0,28500.0,27000.0,29000.0,28500.0,30000.0,29500.0,29500.0,28500.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30500.0,30500.0,29500.0,31000.0,30500.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32500.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32500.0,33000.0,32500.0,35000.0,34000.0,33500.0,34000.0,33500.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34500.0,36000.0,35000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38500.0,38000.0,38500.0,58000.0,50000.0,46000.0,53000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,56000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,58000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,52000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,85000.0,78000.0,90000.0,72000.0,62000.0,56000.0,52000.0,58000.0,54000.0,60000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,50000.0,75000.0,72000.0,55000.0,52000.0,58000.0,54000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[49500.0,46800.0,47200.0,43600.0,42100.0,39200.0,36900.0,40100.0,51300.0,45200.0,43800.0,37900.0,46900.0,43200.0,44500.0,41000.0,40300.0,36800.0,34600.0,37500.0,47800.0,43400.0,40900.0,35400.0,43600.0,39800.0,41200.0,38100.0,36900.0,33700.0,32100.0,34900.0,44200.0,39600.0,37800.0,32500.0,39400.0,36100.0,42300.0,34600.0,33200.0,30800.0,28900.0,31400.0,40500.0,36100.0,34200.0,29300.0,37800.0,35200.0,42400.0,40100.0,32000.0,29600.0,28200.0,68500.0,48700.0,38200.0,32800.0,28100.0,35600.0,32400.0,33800.0,30900.0,54300.0,31500.0,26300.0,28700.0,47900.0,32100.0,30600.0,26200.0,32900.0,29600.0,30500.0,28700.0,27500.0,25400.0,24100.0,26300.0,33800.0,29800.0,28200.0,24000.0,31200.0,27900.0,28700.0,27100.0,25800.0,24200.0,22800.0,24900.0,31500.0,28300.0,26700.0,29400.0,41800.0,33500.0,52600.0,34200.0,27800.0,24900.0,23200.0,25100.0,32400.0,28600.0,27100.0,23300.0,28400.0,25700.0,26200.0,31500.0,44800.0,27300.0,20900.0,22400.0,29100.0,25500.0,24200.0,20800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[74400.0,72400.0,69000.0,66200.0,64300.0,69800.0,58400.0,61000.0,79100.0,70400.0,72400.0,73700.0,72700.0,71200.0,67500.0,65500.0,62900.0,68200.0,58300.0,59600.0,79900.0,68800.0,70700.0,72100.0,70500.0,68600.0,65400.0,63500.0,61000.0,65000.0,56500.0,62400.0,74900.0,65900.0,68600.0,69900.0,69400.0,67500.0,72100.0,62500.0,59200.0,65100.0,55600.0,56900.0,76300.0,65600.0,67500.0,68800.0,72200.0,70200.0,73600.0,72800.0,67400.0,71100.0,57900.0,79900.0,81300.0,68300.0,71000.0,71500.0,66600.0,64800.0,60900.0,60000.0,62200.0,62500.0,53400.0,54600.0,73200.0,63000.0,64800.0,66000.0,62700.0,61000.0,61100.0,56500.0,58600.0,58900.0,50300.0,52300.0,66700.0,59300.0,61000.0,62200.0,59400.0,57800.0,55100.0,52700.0,55500.0,55700.0,47600.0,48700.0,63100.0,56200.0,62400.0,67700.0,63200.0,58800.0,58600.0,49500.0,52300.0,52900.0,44100.0,48600.0,58400.0,51200.0,53500.0,54500.0,51600.0,50200.0,47100.0,46500.0,51300.0,48400.0,41400.0,42300.0,54900.0,48800.0,50200.0,51200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[45000.0,43000.0,44500.0,42000.0,41000.0,38000.0,37500.0,39000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42500.0,41000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,39500.0,41000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44500.0,43000.0,49000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46500.0,45000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,60000.0,48000.0,46000.0,48000.0,52000.0,53000.0,51000.0,49000.0,55000.0,54000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,50000.0,49000.0,75000.0,70000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,58000.0,57000.0,59000.0,60000.0,80000.0,58000.0,55000.0,56000.0,70000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,60000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,51000.0,50000.0,52000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,57000.0,54000.0,55000.0,53000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,49000.0,54000.0,55000.0,53000.0,51000.0,58000.0,57000.0,75000.0,65000.0,60000.0,55000.0,54000.0,56000.0,61000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,52000.0,53000.0,51000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,52000.0,53000.0,51000.0,49000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[8600.0,8200.0,8700.0,8400.0,8800.0,9800.0,13500.0,10800.0,11200.0,9200.0,8900.0,11800.0,9100.0,8600.0,9000.0,8800.0,9200.0,10500.0,9400.0,9100.0,11800.0,9600.0,9200.0,10200.0,9700.0,9300.0,9900.0,9600.0,10100.0,10800.0,11800.0,12400.0,11000.0,10200.0,9900.0,13500.0,10400.0,10000.0,11200.0,10600.0,16800.0,14200.0,10800.0,10400.0,11100.0,12500.0,10800.0,11800.0,11300.0,10800.0,15200.0,14800.0,13200.0,13800.0,13000.0,32000.0,17600.0,14900.0,16200.0,14500.0,12800.0,12200.0,13000.0,13500.0,19200.0,14200.0,12600.0,12300.0,17800.0,13200.0,12800.0,13800.0,11800.0,11200.0,14200.0,13800.0,12800.0,13600.0,11400.0,11100.0,11900.0,12400.0,11600.0,12200.0,11100.0,10600.0,11200.0,10800.0,11000.0,12200.0,10200.0,10000.0,12800.0,10600.0,10400.0,11200.0,15800.0,14200.0,16200.0,12800.0,12400.0,13100.0,11200.0,11800.0,12000.0,14500.0,12200.0,11800.0,15600.0,12400.0,11200.0,14800.0,15200.0,12600.0,10800.0,10500.0,11400.0,10900.0,12800.0,11500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[61000.0,64000.0,66000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,105000.0,55000.0,86000.0,72000.0,65000.0,58000.0,55000.0,57000.0,60000.0,56000.0,54000.0,52000.0,47000.0,48000.0,78000.0,64000.0,58000.0,51000.0,52000.0,54000.0,57000.0,53000.0,51000.0,50000.0,45000.0,46000.0,70000.0,59000.0,54000.0,48000.0,51000.0,53000.0,56000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,44000.0,45000.0,72000.0,58000.0,53000.0,47000.0,50000.0,53000.0,68000.0,75000.0,62000.0,56000.0,50000.0,118000.0,95000.0,68000.0,60000.0,55000.0,49000.0,51000.0,54000.0,51000.0,70000.0,55000.0,46000.0,47000.0,66000.0,56000.0,51000.0,46000.0,47000.0,49000.0,52000.0,48000.0,46000.0,49000.0,42000.0,43000.0,60000.0,52000.0,48000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,50000.0,46000.0,44000.0,55000.0,40000.0,41000.0,57000.0,49000.0,45000.0,41000.0,44000.0,54000.0,92000.0,52000.0,48000.0,60000.0,43000.0,75000.0,80000.0,56000.0,50000.0,46000.0,43000.0,45000.0,58000.0,44000.0,42000.0,56000.0,39000.0,40000.0,62000.0,50000.0,46000.0,42000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[920000.0,770000.0,840000.0,800000.0,820000.0,880000.0,900000.0,890000.0,1450000.0,1010000.0,1080000.0,1160000.0,1080000.0,870000.0,910000.0,900000.0,890000.0,1030000.0,960000.0,950000.0,1670000.0,1090000.0,1260000.0,1200000.0,1190000.0,950000.0,980000.0,950000.0,950000.0,1060000.0,1170000.0,1010000.0,1780000.0,1140000.0,1190000.0,1250000.0,1210000.0,940000.0,1030000.0,960000.0,950000.0,1030000.0,990000.0,970000.0,1660000.0,1120000.0,1190000.0,1240000.0,1160000.0,930000.0,1200000.0,1250000.0,1120000.0,1100000.0,1040000.0,1020000.0,1530000.0,1130000.0,1220000.0,1290000.0,1220000.0,920000.0,970000.0,1190000.0,1290000.0,1050000.0,980000.0,950000.0,1370000.0,1020000.0,1090000.0,1170000.0,1110000.0,860000.0,920000.0,890000.0,880000.0,990000.0,900000.0,870000.0,1250000.0,960000.0,1030000.0,1090000.0,1080000.0,840000.0,900000.0,870000.0,1100000.0,940000.0,890000.0,850000.0,1190000.0,940000.0,1000000.0,1060000.0,1040000.0,800000.0,880000.0,1030000.0,1110000.0,970000.0,880000.0,830000.0,1160000.0,1020000.0,980000.0,1030000.0,1010000.0,760000.0,800000.0,900000.0,830000.0,930000.0,830000.0,790000.0,1090000.0,880000.0,930000.0,980000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[9800.0,9500.0,9600.0,9300.0,9200.0,8700.0,8600.0,8800.0,9400.0,9500.0,9400.0,9900.0,10000.0,9600.0,9700.0,9200.0,9300.0,8700.0,8600.0,8800.0,9300.0,9400.0,9300.0,9700.0,9800.0,9400.0,9500.0,9100.0,9000.0,8400.0,8300.0,8500.0,9000.0,9200.0,9100.0,9400.0,9500.0,9200.0,9300.0,8900.0,8800.0,8200.0,8200.0,8300.0,8800.0,9000.0,8900.0,9100.0,9300.0,9200.0,10200.0,10800.0,10000.0,9300.0,9100.0,9200.0,9600.0,9800.0,9700.0,10100.0,10200.0,9800.0,9900.0,9600.0,10800.0,9400.0,9000.0,9100.0,9500.0,9500.0,9400.0,9700.0,9600.0,9200.0,9300.0,8900.0,8800.0,8300.0,8200.0,8300.0,8700.0,8800.0,8700.0,8900.0,9000.0,8600.0,8700.0,8300.0,8200.0,7700.0,7700.0,7800.0,8200.0,8300.0,8200.0,8400.0,8500.0,8200.0,9000.0,8300.0,8000.0,7500.0,7500.0,7600.0,8000.0,8100.0,8000.0,8200.0,8300.0,8000.0,8100.0,7800.0,8000.0,7300.0,7200.0,7300.0,7700.0,7800.0,7700.0,7900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[288000.0,238000.0,298000.0,250000.0,263000.0,275000.0,238000.0,250000.0,405000.0,363000.0,290000.0,213000.0,353000.0,271000.0,299000.0,310000.0,299000.0,349000.0,271000.0,285000.0,491000.0,426000.0,339000.0,242000.0,299000.0,277000.0,273000.0,285000.0,273000.0,326000.0,247000.0,260000.0,438000.0,380000.0,286000.0,221000.0,276000.0,228000.0,317000.0,270000.0,252000.0,314000.0,228000.0,240000.0,427000.0,360000.0,289000.0,204000.0,414000.0,342000.0,458000.0,460000.0,413000.0,456000.0,342000.0,360000.0,588000.0,550000.0,446000.0,520000.0,507000.0,350000.0,326000.0,430000.0,376000.0,416000.0,295000.0,310000.0,513000.0,448000.0,366000.0,294000.0,312000.0,233000.0,257000.0,270000.0,257000.0,340000.0,233000.0,245000.0,424000.0,361000.0,295000.0,208000.0,247000.0,239000.0,251000.0,215000.0,226000.0,307000.0,204000.0,215000.0,375000.0,314000.0,262000.0,183000.0,334000.0,276000.0,445000.0,290000.0,305000.0,424000.0,346000.0,290000.0,492000.0,433000.0,344000.0,247000.0,265000.0,219000.0,297000.0,230000.0,242000.0,323000.0,219000.0,230000.0,399000.0,343000.0,253000.0,196000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[7800.0,7200.0,7600.0,7400.0,7500.0,7200.0,7700.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,8000.0,7900.0,7600.0,7000.0,7400.0,7200.0,7100.0,6900.0,7300.0,7400.0,7000.0,7200.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7100.0,7400.0,7300.0,7600.0,7800.0,9500.0,8800.0,7900.0,7600.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,6800.0,7100.0,6900.0,7000.0,6800.0,7100.0,7000.0,6900.0,7000.0,7400.0,7100.0,7000.0,6800.0,8200.0,8700.0,8500.0,8200.0,9000.0,13000.0,12000.0,9700.0,10300.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9200.0,9400.0,11500.0,10000.0,9000.0,8800.0,9300.0,8500.0,9000.0,8200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7800.0,7400.0,7600.0,7200.0,7400.0,7300.0,7000.0,7200.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6400.0,6700.0,6500.0,6600.0,6300.0,6600.0,6500.0,6200.0,6400.0,6800.0,6300.0,6100.0,5800.0,6000.0,5900.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,5800.0,5600.0,5700.0,6100.0,5700.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,5500.0,5100.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[11660.0,11330.0,11550.0,11000.0,10780.0,10230.0,10010.0,10120.0,11440.0,11220.0,11220.0,10450.0,13250.0,12875.0,13125.0,12500.0,12250.0,11625.0,11375.0,11500.0,13000.0,12875.0,12750.0,11875.0,14840.0,14420.0,14700.0,14000.0,13720.0,13020.0,12740.0,12880.0,14560.0,14420.0,14280.0,13300.0,15900.0,15450.0,15750.0,15000.0,14700.0,13950.0,13650.0,13800.0,15600.0,15450.0,15300.0,14250.0,20140.0,19570.0,19950.0,19000.0,18620.0,17670.0,17290.0,32480.0,23760.0,19570.0,19380.0,18050.0,18550.0,18025.0,18375.0,17500.0,17150.0,16275.0,15925.0,16100.0,18200.0,18025.0,17850.0,16625.0,17490.0,16995.0,17325.0,16500.0,16170.0,15345.0,15015.0,15180.0,17160.0,16995.0,16830.0,15675.0,16960.0,16480.0,16800.0,16000.0,15680.0,14880.0,14560.0,14720.0,16640.0,16480.0,16320.0,15200.0,15900.0,15450.0,18750.0,15000.0,14700.0,13950.0,13650.0,13800.0,15600.0,15450.0,15300.0,14250.0,13780.0,13390.0,13650.0,13000.0,12740.0,12090.0,11830.0,11960.0,13520.0,13390.0,13260.0,12350.0]}},{"title":"Lower East Side","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Lower East Side\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[19857,17923,18680,18434,18706,16695,17481,16648,17775,19353,17897,17631,18286,17775,18068,16976,17877,15610,19894,16271,15174,16671,15764,15339,17227,14750,16454,15588,16028,14548,16087,15731,15696,17400,24840,17743,17429,14629,16023,14852,15308,14994,16109,15415,14804,16940,15350,16060,18625,14885,15150,17912,16902,13519,14835,12848,12675,13822,14404,15504,14845,14505,16154,14752,16114,14336,15728,14248,15165,15013,15011,15432,15773,14038,14652,15420,14163,13800,14664,14670,13564,14834,14344,14785,16248,14292,16080,16581,15723,15507,17856,17230,15404,14893,15115,15164,15837,15765,16828,15636,14757,14105,15492,14907,14824,15054,13775,15084,14757,13241,13549,12405,14853,13635,15237,16568,17020,16845,16247,36607],"flat_reference_value":16968.581137047502,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[30200.0,29100.0,32500.0,33100.0,34700.0,33900.0,35600.0,35100.0,34200.0,35400.0,31800.0,30900.0,31700.0,29400.0,33300.0,34100.0,35900.0,34500.0,37100.0,36200.0,34800.0,36600.0,32600.0,31300.0,31200.0,28800.0,32900.0,33700.0,35200.0,34100.0,36500.0,35700.0,34400.0,35900.0,32000.0,30800.0,31000.0,28400.0,32400.0,33300.0,35100.0,34000.0,36400.0,35500.0,34300.0,35800.0,31600.0,30600.0,30700.0,28900.0,27100.0,22400.0,23700.0,26100.0,26700.0,26800.0,27500.0,28700.0,26700.0,25700.0,26300.0,24300.0,27400.0,28600.0,30100.0,30900.0,32200.0,31700.0,31200.0,32800.0,29200.0,28400.0,28400.0,26500.0,29800.0,31000.0,33000.0,32400.0,34400.0,33800.0,32700.0,34200.0,30400.0,29200.0,28900.0,26700.0,30300.0,31200.0,33000.0,32200.0,34300.0,33700.0,32500.0,34100.0,30100.0,29100.0,28500.0,26700.0,29800.0,30700.0,32400.0,31500.0,33600.0,33000.0,31700.0,33300.0,29400.0,28200.0,27400.0,25100.0,28200.0,29100.0,30600.0,29800.0,31700.0,31000.0,29900.0,31300.0,27500.0,26400.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[33400.0,31200.0,34800.0,33600.0,33900.0,31500.0,34200.0,34600.0,33100.0,35100.0,32800.0,31400.0,34100.0,30900.0,35400.0,33800.0,34200.0,31800.0,34500.0,34900.0,33400.0,35600.0,33700.0,34300.0,34600.0,30800.0,34900.0,33500.0,33700.0,31100.0,33900.0,34400.0,32600.0,34700.0,32400.0,33200.0,33800.0,32500.0,35100.0,33200.0,33400.0,30900.0,33600.0,34100.0,32300.0,34200.0,31900.0,32700.0,33500.0,30600.0,27800.0,24900.0,25600.0,24800.0,26400.0,28900.0,27200.0,28600.0,27100.0,27500.0,29200.0,26800.0,29800.0,28900.0,29500.0,28400.0,30800.0,31200.0,29700.0,31500.0,29600.0,29900.0,30400.0,28700.0,31800.0,31400.0,31100.0,28900.0,31300.0,31600.0,29800.0,31200.0,28800.0,28100.0,29400.0,26500.0,29700.0,29200.0,28800.0,26900.0,28900.0,29100.0,27400.0,28600.0,26700.0,26100.0,27200.0,25100.0,27500.0,26400.0,26700.0,24800.0,26600.0,26900.0,25300.0,26500.0,24900.0,25400.0,25800.0,23100.0,25600.0,24500.0,24800.0,23200.0,24900.0,25100.0,23700.0,24800.0,23300.0,22800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[25200.0,23400.0,26100.0,24800.0,23900.0,21800.0,21200.0,22100.0,23500.0,26400.0,25800.0,21900.0,24700.0,22800.0,25300.0,24100.0,23200.0,21100.0,20800.0,21400.0,22900.0,25600.0,25100.0,21300.0,24100.0,22100.0,24900.0,23500.0,22700.0,20400.0,19900.0,20700.0,22100.0,24800.0,24200.0,20500.0,23400.0,21300.0,23900.0,22600.0,21800.0,19700.0,19200.0,20100.0,21500.0,23800.0,23100.0,19800.0,22500.0,21100.0,21800.0,22400.0,21600.0,19100.0,18700.0,19400.0,20800.0,22900.0,22100.0,19200.0,21900.0,20200.0,22800.0,21400.0,20900.0,18800.0,18400.0,19100.0,20500.0,22600.0,21900.0,18900.0,21400.0,19600.0,22100.0,20800.0,20200.0,18300.0,17800.0,18600.0,19800.0,21900.0,21200.0,18200.0,20800.0,18900.0,21300.0,20100.0,19500.0,17600.0,17200.0,17900.0,19200.0,21100.0,20400.0,17500.0,19900.0,18400.0,20500.0,19400.0,18800.0,16900.0,16600.0,17300.0,18500.0,20200.0,19600.0,16800.0,19200.0,17700.0,19800.0,18700.0,18200.0,16300.0,15900.0,16700.0,17800.0,19500.0,18900.0,16200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[38500.0,37800.0,40200.0,39500.0,37600.0,34200.0,33500.0,33800.0,35600.0,38400.0,37900.0,32800.0,36200.0,35400.0,37800.0,36900.0,35100.0,32300.0,31600.0,31900.0,33400.0,35800.0,35200.0,30400.0,33800.0,33100.0,35200.0,34300.0,32700.0,30100.0,29400.0,29700.0,31100.0,33200.0,32600.0,28300.0,31500.0,30900.0,32800.0,32000.0,30500.0,28100.0,27600.0,27800.0,29000.0,30900.0,30300.0,26400.0,29600.0,28900.0,31800.0,33200.0,31000.0,27500.0,26800.0,26500.0,27400.0,28800.0,28200.0,25100.0,27900.0,27200.0,28700.0,27900.0,26600.0,24700.0,24200.0,24400.0,25500.0,27100.0,26600.0,23300.0,25900.0,25200.0,26600.0,25800.0,24600.0,22800.0,22300.0,22500.0,23500.0,25000.0,24500.0,21500.0,23900.0,23300.0,24600.0,23800.0,22700.0,21000.0,20600.0,20800.0,21700.0,23100.0,22600.0,19800.0,22000.0,21400.0,22600.0,21900.0,20900.0,19300.0,18900.0,19100.0,19900.0,21200.0,20700.0,18200.0,20200.0,19600.0,20700.0,20100.0,19200.0,17700.0,17300.0,17500.0,18300.0,19500.0,19000.0,16800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[31000.0,29500.0,31000.0,30500.0,30500.0,29000.0,29500.0,29500.0,28500.0,29500.0,28500.0,27500.0,30000.0,27500.0,29500.0,28500.0,28500.0,27000.0,27500.0,27500.0,26500.0,27500.0,26500.0,26000.0,28000.0,25500.0,27500.0,26500.0,26500.0,25000.0,25500.0,25500.0,24500.0,25500.0,24500.0,24000.0,26000.0,23500.0,25500.0,25000.0,25000.0,23500.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,24500.0,22500.0,23000.0,25000.0,26000.0,23500.0,23500.0,23000.0,22000.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,24000.0,22000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22500.0,21500.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20500.0,20500.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19500.0,20500.0,18500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18000.0,19500.0,18000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[26000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,28000.0,27000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,27000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,30000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,34000.0,40000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,23000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,29000.0,27000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,29000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[17684.0,15891.0,17042.0,15512.0,15377.0,13845.0,13792.0,14218.0,14755.0,16203.0,15184.0,14390.0,17245.0,14987.0,16690.0,15412.0,15033.0,13622.0,13508.0,13904.0,14531.0,15722.0,15108.0,14115.0,16951.0,14582.0,16177.0,14703.0,14859.0,12948.0,13342.0,13275.0,14084.0,15462.0,14421.0,13698.0,16378.0,14492.0,15621.0,14648.0,14315.0,12971.0,12834.0,13247.0,13792.0,15136.0,14102.0,13381.0,16084.0,14312.0,19184.0,20537.0,18293.0,14376.0,13258.0,12804.0,13391.0,14682.0,13715.0,12984.0,15731.0,13496.0,15048.0,13652.0,13785.0,12038.0,12394.0,12532.0,15027.0,14348.0,13372.0,12708.0,15142.0,13418.0,14463.0,13579.0,13251.0,11964.0,11887.0,12258.0,12791.0,14025.0,13084.0,12417.0,14812.0,13127.0,14385.0,13042.0,13178.0,11732.0,11615.0,11987.0,12268.0,13712.0,12804.0,12132.0,14628.0,12975.0,13978.0,12674.0,12812.0,11395.0,11286.0,11648.0,12152.0,13329.0,12426.0,11794.0,14175.0,12132.0,13548.0,12278.0,12416.0,11028.0,10932.0,11286.0,11778.0,12918.0,12034.0,11428.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[26600.0,23200.0,26000.0,26900.0,28000.0,30200.0,32800.0,31400.0,26900.0,28000.0,26000.0,29700.0,28000.0,24500.0,27400.0,28300.0,29500.0,31900.0,34500.0,33000.0,28300.0,29500.0,27400.0,31300.0,29500.0,25700.0,28800.0,29800.0,31000.0,33500.0,36300.0,34700.0,29800.0,31000.0,28800.0,32900.0,31800.0,27000.0,30200.0,31200.0,32500.0,35100.0,38000.0,36400.0,31200.0,32500.0,30200.0,34500.0,29500.0,25700.0,36000.0,35500.0,32500.0,27000.0,24800.0,25000.0,25300.0,27900.0,27400.0,31200.0,29000.0,25300.0,28400.0,29300.0,30500.0,31300.0,31400.0,30100.0,27800.0,30500.0,28400.0,32300.0,31400.0,27400.0,30700.0,31700.0,33000.0,35600.0,38600.0,37000.0,31700.0,33000.0,30700.0,35000.0,33700.0,29500.0,33000.0,34100.0,35500.0,38300.0,41500.0,39800.0,34100.0,36200.0,33000.0,37600.0,35600.0,31100.0,34900.0,39600.0,40500.0,41700.0,43900.0,42000.0,36000.0,37500.0,34900.0,39800.0,38000.0,32000.0,35800.0,37000.0,38500.0,41600.0,45000.0,43100.0,37000.0,38500.0,35800.0,40800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[29000.0,29500.0,32000.0,33300.0,34200.0,33000.0,33600.0,32600.0,32000.0,33300.0,31000.0,28500.0,30600.0,31300.0,34000.0,35400.0,36400.0,35000.0,35700.0,34700.0,34000.0,35400.0,33000.0,30300.0,32400.0,33100.0,36000.0,37400.0,38500.0,37100.0,37800.0,36700.0,36000.0,37400.0,34900.0,32000.0,34200.0,35000.0,38000.0,39500.0,40700.0,39100.0,39900.0,38800.0,38000.0,39500.0,36900.0,33800.0,36000.0,37000.0,48000.0,56000.0,50000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,39000.0,36000.0,39000.0,40000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43500.0,44500.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,37500.0,36800.0,37600.0,40000.0,41600.0,42800.0,41200.0,42000.0,40800.0,40000.0,41600.0,38800.0,35600.0,35000.0,35700.0,38000.0,39500.0,40700.0,39100.0,39900.0,38800.0,38000.0,39500.0,36900.0,33800.0,32400.0,33100.0,36000.0,37400.0,38500.0,37100.0,37800.0,36700.0,36000.0,37400.0,34900.0,32000.0,30600.0,31300.0,34000.0,35400.0,36400.0,35000.0,35700.0,34700.0,34000.0,35400.0,33000.0,30300.0],"meta/muse-ember":[21000.0,20000.0,23000.0,26000.0,29000.0,32000.0,33500.0,33000.0,28500.0,27000.0,23000.0,20500.0,21500.0,20500.0,23500.0,26500.0,30000.0,32500.0,34000.0,33500.0,29000.0,27500.0,23500.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,23000.0,26000.0,29500.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,28500.0,27000.0,23000.0,20500.0,22000.0,21000.0,24000.0,27000.0,31500.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,29500.0,27500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,21500.0,17500.0,13500.0,15000.0,21500.0,24500.0,25000.0,22000.0,19500.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,19500.0,23000.0,27500.0,32000.0,34000.0,33500.0,30000.0,27000.0,24000.0,21500.0,20000.0,19000.0,21500.0,24000.0,27500.0,30500.0,32000.0,31000.0,27000.0,25500.0,22500.0,20000.0,19500.0,18500.0,21000.0,23500.0,27000.0,29500.0,31000.0,30000.0,32500.0,29500.0,23500.0,21000.0,19000.0,18000.0,20500.0,22500.0,25500.0,28500.0,30000.0,29000.0,25500.0,24000.0,21500.0,19500.0,18000.0,17500.0,20000.0,22000.0,25000.0,27500.0,29000.0,28000.0,25500.0,36000.0,30500.0,21000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[29400.0,29960.0,31080.0,29120.0,28000.0,26600.0,24360.0,23520.0,26320.0,28560.0,31450.0,26040.0,32550.0,33170.0,34410.0,32240.0,31000.0,29450.0,26970.0,26040.0,29140.0,31620.0,33480.0,28830.0,36225.0,36915.0,38295.0,35880.0,34500.0,32775.0,30015.0,28980.0,32430.0,35190.0,37260.0,32085.0,40425.0,41195.0,42735.0,40040.0,38500.0,36575.0,33495.0,32340.0,36190.0,39270.0,41580.0,35805.0,41475.0,42265.0,50860.0,50939.0,45030.0,40152.0,35740.0,34507.0,37501.0,40290.0,42660.0,36735.0,39900.0,40660.0,42180.0,39520.0,38000.0,38627.0,34713.0,33197.0,35720.0,38760.0,41040.0,35340.0,37800.0,38520.0,39960.0,37440.0,36000.0,34200.0,31320.0,30240.0,33840.0,36720.0,38880.0,33480.0,36225.0,36915.0,38295.0,35880.0,34500.0,32775.0,30015.0,28980.0,32430.0,35190.0,37260.0,32085.0,34650.0,35310.0,36630.0,34320.0,33000.0,31350.0,28710.0,27720.0,31020.0,33660.0,35640.0,30690.0,33075.0,33705.0,34965.0,32760.0,31500.0,29925.0,27405.0,26460.0,29610.0,32130.0,34020.0,29295.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[28900.0,28500.0,30400.0,31200.0,32700.0,34300.0,35000.0,34400.0,33100.0,32000.0,30600.0,29800.0,30800.0,30300.0,32400.0,33200.0,34900.0,36600.0,37400.0,36800.0,35400.0,34200.0,32700.0,31800.0,32800.0,32300.0,34300.0,35100.0,36700.0,38300.0,39100.0,38500.0,37000.0,35800.0,34300.0,33400.0,37000.0,36500.0,38500.0,39300.0,41000.0,42600.0,43300.0,42700.0,41200.0,40000.0,38500.0,37500.0,41500.0,42300.0,47000.0,50000.0,54000.0,61000.0,57000.0,53500.0,50500.0,48000.0,45500.0,43500.0,44000.0,43300.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,50000.0,51000.0,50200.0,48200.0,46500.0,44500.0,43500.0,41000.0,40300.0,42000.0,43000.0,44500.0,46200.0,47000.0,46300.0,44400.0,42900.0,41100.0,40000.0,39500.0,38800.0,40500.0,41500.0,44000.0,45000.0,45700.0,45000.0,43300.0,41800.0,40200.0,39200.0,41500.0,40800.0,42400.0,43400.0,44600.0,46400.0,47600.0,46900.0,45000.0,43500.0,41900.0,40800.0,42800.0,42000.0,43700.0,44700.0,46000.0,47800.0,48700.0,48000.0,46200.0,44700.0,43200.0,42000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[30000.0,31000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,22000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,21000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,18000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[20350.0,17320.0,18610.0,18050.0,19190.0,20520.0,21040.0,20930.0,19190.0,19195.0,21560.0,19130.0,21000.0,18970.0,20370.0,18620.0,20400.0,21600.0,22150.0,22250.0,19990.0,20600.0,18600.0,19570.0,22270.0,19140.0,20780.0,21150.0,21000.0,23590.0,24200.0,22910.0,20580.0,21850.0,19530.0,20950.0,22660.0,20480.0,21570.0,20710.0,22450.0,23780.0,24140.0,24020.0,21800.0,22460.0,20270.0,21120.0,21410.0,19890.0,25930.0,26330.0,19800.0,18180.0,21260.0,21810.0,19600.0,21000.0,20260.0,24450.0,22580.0,20400.0,21690.0,20630.0,21500.0,25080.0,25510.0,22760.0,21500.0,22150.0,20800.0,22470.0,25700.0,22100.0,23280.0,23030.0,24720.0,27220.0,28750.0,26700.0,24000.0,24730.0,22320.0,23940.0,27040.0,23720.0,25230.0,24230.0,26270.0,28640.0,31410.0,28090.0,25500.0,26530.0,23720.0,25190.0,28920.0,24860.0,26450.0,25650.0,27810.0,30620.0,32950.0,30040.0,27000.0,28360.0,26870.0,26160.0,28880.0,25830.0,27210.0,26130.0,28600.0,31190.0,33560.0,30290.0,27500.0,28610.0,25580.0,26650.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[4200.0,3980.0,4330.0,4210.0,4390.0,4580.0,4710.0,4620.0,4480.0,4300.0,4110.0,4020.0,4260.0,4100.0,4400.0,4330.0,4510.0,4720.0,4890.0,4770.0,4600.0,4450.0,4230.0,4170.0,4200.0,4050.0,4350.0,4290.0,4510.0,4690.0,4810.0,4720.0,4590.0,4410.0,4210.0,4160.0,4140.0,4000.0,4350.0,4290.0,4500.0,4920.0,4800.0,4690.0,4540.0,4380.0,4200.0,4150.0,4200.0,4100.0,4750.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,4720.0,4600.0,4450.0,4300.0,4250.0,4300.0,4150.0,4420.0,4370.0,4590.0,4780.0,4900.0,4800.0,4660.0,4480.0,4320.0,4250.0,4100.0,3980.0,4260.0,4180.0,4400.0,4590.0,4700.0,4610.0,4460.0,4310.0,4150.0,4080.0,4020.0,3890.0,4200.0,4130.0,4350.0,4540.0,4630.0,4530.0,4400.0,4230.0,4070.0,4000.0,3940.0,3800.0,4110.0,4030.0,4260.0,4470.0,4550.0,4450.0,4310.0,4150.0,3990.0,3920.0,3840.0,3710.0,4010.0,3940.0,4160.0,4360.0,4440.0,4340.0,4200.0,4040.0,3890.0,3820.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4085.0,4300.0,4515.0,4515.0,4515.0,4300.0,4000.0,3956.0,4515.0,4515.0,4300.0,3870.0,3990.0,4200.0,4410.0,4410.0,4410.0,4200.0,3906.0,3864.0,4410.0,4410.0,4200.0,3780.0,3895.0,4100.0,4305.0,4305.0,4305.0,4100.0,3813.0,3772.0,4305.0,4305.0,4100.0,3690.0,3705.0,3900.0,4095.0,4095.0,4095.0,3900.0,3627.0,3588.0,4095.0,4095.0,3900.0,3510.0,3800.0,4000.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4000.0,3720.0,3680.0,4200.0,4200.0,4000.0,3600.0,3325.0,3500.0,3675.0,3675.0,3675.0,3500.0,3255.0,3220.0,3675.0,3675.0,3500.0,3150.0,3135.0,3300.0,3465.0,3465.0,3465.0,3300.0,3069.0,3036.0,3465.0,3465.0,3300.0,2970.0,2850.0,3000.0,3150.0,3150.0,3150.0,3000.0,2790.0,2760.0,3150.0,3150.0,3000.0,2700.0,2660.0,2800.0,2940.0,2940.0,2940.0,2800.0,2604.0,2576.0,2940.0,2940.0,2800.0,2520.0,2375.0,2500.0,2625.0,2625.0,2625.0,2500.0,2325.0,2300.0,2625.0,2625.0,2500.0,2250.0]}},{"title":"Sukhoi Su-24","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Sukhoi Su-24\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[35846,36225,36424,89820,29585,26444,27420,42565,33099,32754,25093,29148,26396,32346,26767,43031,25675,29304,21140,21775,21602,27744,26780,21355,24882,26360,23405,30602,18939,15219,29689,20435,19224,18169,18589,18040,21616,21874,24940,18949,19458,19424,20449,19038,18602,19973,15751,15731,33131,24811,52367,20781,27333,21301,21931,21595,21242,21542,26757,19560,19996,23507,22144,22817,25411,40454,24390,24212,21846,21524,26574,25542,31137,81553,152276,55518,50579,35673,37406,85364,61912,56177,49322,47891,41356,58151,84828,51695,73617,43795,39528,46896,50918,41615,36923,66036,45115,39610,38489,63867,35823,37135,28404,56914,41422,50428,38668,47310,30188,31235,31498,26588,34062,82809,29486,27744,32022,27346,31795,29121],"flat_reference_value":16909.439412282693,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[42000.0,33000.0,29000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,24000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,24000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,19000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,19000.0,35000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,24000.0,75000.0,110000.0,75000.0,60000.0,51000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,44000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,60000.0,54000.0,48000.0,45000.0,62000.0,48000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[54200.0,41800.0,35600.0,76400.0,38900.0,33200.0,31500.0,32100.0,30800.0,33400.0,34900.0,31200.0,30900.0,32400.0,30100.0,33800.0,29700.0,34200.0,28900.0,28400.0,29100.0,41300.0,29800.0,28500.0,29600.0,31400.0,30200.0,34600.0,28700.0,27300.0,27800.0,27500.0,31200.0,28100.0,27900.0,27400.0,28800.0,26900.0,28500.0,27200.0,27600.0,26800.0,27900.0,28300.0,27400.0,29500.0,28600.0,27800.0,31400.0,32900.0,58200.0,33700.0,31800.0,30500.0,29900.0,30400.0,31900.0,32600.0,30800.0,29700.0,31100.0,28900.0,31500.0,33800.0,30600.0,52400.0,32700.0,30200.0,29400.0,30100.0,31800.0,33500.0,39400.0,132000.0,175600.0,92400.0,74300.0,58900.0,52100.0,78500.0,61200.0,59800.0,51400.0,53700.0,48900.0,46500.0,49200.0,44800.0,96300.0,64700.0,58400.0,51200.0,56800.0,45300.0,42100.0,49400.0,43200.0,41600.0,42900.0,38700.0,39500.0,37800.0,38400.0,42600.0,47300.0,38900.0,43800.0,41200.0,36800.0,34900.0,35600.0,33400.0,34100.0,32800.0,31900.0,32400.0,31500.0,31200.0,30600.0,29800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[78200.0,52100.0,44300.0,38900.0,36100.0,33400.0,32200.0,30500.0,31800.0,33100.0,31400.0,29600.0,30800.0,28400.0,31200.0,34100.0,29500.0,28100.0,27300.0,28600.0,29100.0,36700.0,28900.0,27400.0,29800.0,32500.0,31000.0,33400.0,27800.0,26500.0,27200.0,26900.0,28300.0,27600.0,29400.0,26800.0,29100.0,27400.0,28900.0,27500.0,26300.0,25700.0,26400.0,28100.0,27900.0,29300.0,27000.0,26100.0,28400.0,31200.0,34800.0,33100.0,30200.0,27500.0,28300.0,29400.0,27800.0,28600.0,27200.0,26500.0,29100.0,26800.0,28200.0,30400.0,27600.0,32800.0,29500.0,28300.0,27900.0,28400.0,29800.0,32100.0,34600.0,115000.0,184500.0,82300.0,65100.0,55400.0,51200.0,48900.0,54100.0,53600.0,47300.0,45800.0,46200.0,57400.0,50100.0,46800.0,74300.0,68200.0,58900.0,56400.0,83100.0,57200.0,49800.0,61500.0,52300.0,49100.0,47500.0,44800.0,43200.0,41700.0,40600.0,42100.0,41500.0,39800.0,38400.0,37900.0,39200.0,37800.0,38600.0,36900.0,36100.0,35400.0,34800.0,35600.0,35100.0,34500.0,33900.0,33400.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,39000.0,35000.0,46000.0,33000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,34000.0,55000.0,33000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,28000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[62000.0,55000.0,50000.0,78000.0,48000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,38000.0,40000.0,44000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,46000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,32000.0,75000.0,130000.0,70000.0,55000.0,48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,65000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,62000.0,47000.0,43000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,46000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[88000.0,70000.0,62000.0,78000.0,56000.0,50000.0,48000.0,66000.0,54000.0,60000.0,56000.0,54000.0,50000.0,46000.0,46000.0,62000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,44000.0,48000.0,45000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,50000.0,72000.0,50000.0,46000.0,43000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,43000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,45000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,40000.0,52000.0,44000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,42000.0,50000.0,42000.0,48000.0,260000.0,230000.0,130000.0,95000.0,78000.0,68000.0,72000.0,85000.0,92000.0,72000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,58000.0,58000.0,72000.0,78000.0,62000.0,66000.0,88000.0,66000.0,60000.0,56000.0,55000.0,62000.0,56000.0,55000.0,68000.0,56000.0,55000.0,72000.0,62000.0,56000.0,76000.0,56000.0,52000.0,56000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,60000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":null,"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[13800.0,11200.0,9600.0,8800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7400.0,8600.0,8300.0,9400.0,9200.0,11800.0,9100.0,8400.0,8600.0,11400.0,8700.0,10900.0,8300.0,7900.0,8800.0,8700.0,8900.0,7800.0,8600.0,10700.0,9200.0,13600.0,9700.0,8600.0,8400.0,8300.0,9300.0,10100.0,8600.0,7900.0,8200.0,7900.0,8100.0,8600.0,8900.0,8200.0,8500.0,9100.0,10300.0,8800.0,8400.0,7900.0,9100.0,8600.0,8900.0,8700.0,8800.0,8100.0,7900.0,8400.0,11700.0,13400.0,10800.0,8600.0,8700.0,9800.0,9300.0,10400.0,9100.0,8800.0,8600.0,10200.0,9600.0,10300.0,13900.0,14700.0,16200.0,187000.0,341000.0,128000.0,81000.0,56000.0,46000.0,41000.0,54000.0,47000.0,42000.0,35000.0,31000.0,29500.0,28000.0,25500.0,43000.0,38000.0,35500.0,31000.0,27500.0,26500.0,24500.0,27000.0,23500.0,22500.0,25500.0,22000.0,21500.0,20500.0,21000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17500.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,17500.0,14500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,11500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[30000.0,14000.0,9000.0,7000.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,4800.0,4500.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,5200.0,5500.0,5000.0,4800.0,5000.0,5500.0,5200.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,7500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,8000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,9000.0,10000.0,11000.0,15000.0,40000.0,55000.0,30000.0,20000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,14000.0,16000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,15000.0,16000.0,35000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,22000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,22000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[13200.0,8800.0,6400.0,5100.0,4700.0,5200.0,5400.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,5300.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,3800.0,4000.0,4300.0,4400.0,4100.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,4600.0,5800.0,4800.0,4200.0,3900.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3300.0,4200.0,7600.0,4200.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3800.0,4100.0,4400.0,5200.0,7400.0,16800.0,12500.0,9800.0,8400.0,7200.0,6800.0,7500.0,6400.0,5900.0,5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5800.0,7000.0,11500.0,8800.0,6800.0,6400.0,8200.0,6600.0,6100.0,5800.0,5700.0,5800.0,6000.0,5900.0,6200.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,5900.0,5800.0,5600.0,6400.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,6200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[120000.0,72000.0,46000.0,30000.0,23000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,20000.0,18000.0,24000.0,20000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,48000.0,24000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,19000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,42000.0,22000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,28000.0,50000.0,26000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,24000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,20000.0,24000.0,42000.0,430000.0,390000.0,190000.0,150000.0,115000.0,98000.0,95000.0,115000.0,125000.0,105000.0,95000.0,80000.0,95000.0,72000.0,62000.0,72000.0,66000.0,60000.0,56000.0,51000.0,49000.0,46000.0,43000.0,41000.0,50000.0,43000.0,41000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,58000.0,49000.0,43000.0,41000.0,46000.0,43000.0,52000.0,46000.0,41000.0,43000.0,39000.0,37000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,39000.0,37000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[136000.0,104000.0,92000.0,84000.0,79000.0,76000.0,74000.0,82000.0,91000.0,94000.0,101000.0,108000.0,93000.0,85000.0,79000.0,76000.0,83000.0,81000.0,78000.0,80000.0,88000.0,84000.0,158000.0,95000.0,96000.0,1280000.0,360000.0,1510000.0,330000.0,155000.0,121000.0,113000.0,124000.0,112000.0,119000.0,108000.0,99000.0,92000.0,88000.0,86000.0,101000.0,93000.0,90000.0,95000.0,125000.0,108000.0,101000.0,106000.0,109000.0,98000.0,91000.0,88000.0,91000.0,94000.0,235000.0,330000.0,520000.0,610000.0,390000.0,480000.0,360000.0,240000.0,205000.0,185000.0,178000.0,171000.0,165000.0,175000.0,190000.0,330000.0,255000.0,225000.0,320000.0,760000.0,2350000.0,2100000.0,1480000.0,990000.0,720000.0,610000.0,560000.0,650000.0,600000.0,570000.0,510000.0,480000.0,505000.0,490000.0,520000.0,485000.0,450000.0,470000.0,460000.0,650000.0,550000.0,520000.0,490000.0,450000.0,475000.0,495000.0,525000.0,2150000.0,1080000.0,760000.0,650000.0,700000.0,640000.0,590000.0,535000.0,480000.0,515000.0,495000.0,530000.0,565000.0,550000.0,585000.0,575000.0,620000.0,650000.0,610000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3200.0,2300.0,2100.0,2900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1700.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1900.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1500.0,1500.0,1900.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1500.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,2800.0,3600.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,2300.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[8200.0,5600.0,3800.0,3100.0,2700.0,2500.0,2900.0,3400.0,2800.0,2500.0,3200.0,4100.0,2950.0,2550.0,2100.0,2000.0,2250.0,2500.0,2800.0,3100.0,2600.0,2300.0,2700.0,3200.0,2400.0,2100.0,1900.0,1850.0,2050.0,2300.0,2550.0,2800.0,2350.0,2600.0,2400.0,2900.0,2200.0,2000.0,1800.0,1950.0,2100.0,2350.0,2500.0,2750.0,2400.0,2600.0,2450.0,2850.0,2350.0,2150.0,1900.0,2200.0,2050.0,2250.0,2600.0,2900.0,2450.0,2300.0,2150.0,2700.0,2450.0,2200.0,2050.0,2150.0,2350.0,2500.0,2750.0,3000.0,2650.0,2800.0,2600.0,3200.0,2800.0,22000.0,13000.0,7800.0,4800.0,6000.0,8200.0,6300.0,4500.0,6800.0,3900.0,5200.0,3100.0,7800.0,4700.0,5200.0,3600.0,4300.0,5900.0,7200.0,4200.0,5100.0,3700.0,4600.0,4900.0,11000.0,6800.0,7800.0,5600.0,8600.0,10200.0,7400.0,5900.0,7200.0,5200.0,6600.0,6300.0,9800.0,7100.0,8200.0,6600.0,7400.0,8900.0,7600.0,6000.0,6500.0,5500.0,6100.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[16000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8500.0,12500.0,10000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,8500.0,11000.0,9000.0,8200.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,8500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,7800.0,7500.0,7600.0,8000.0,7400.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,7600.0,7200.0,7500.0,7300.0,8500.0,8200.0,9000.0,12500.0,10000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7800.0,7500.0,8500.0,9000.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,8500.0,14000.0,28000.0,25000.0,29000.0,24000.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,26000.0,23000.0,20000.0,21000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,19000.0,22000.0,18500.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,24000.0,19000.0,18000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,20000.0,19000.0,17500.0,17500.0,16500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,16500.0,15500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2100.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1450.0,1400.0,1380.0,1550.0,1650.0,1600.0,1450.0,1480.0,1420.0,1430.0,1380.0,1370.0,1260.0,1220.0,1210.0,1330.0,1400.0,1380.0,1260.0,1370.0,1330.0,1340.0,1300.0,1290.0,1180.0,1150.0,1140.0,1250.0,1310.0,1290.0,1190.0,1260.0,1230.0,1240.0,1200.0,1190.0,1090.0,1060.0,1050.0,1150.0,1210.0,1190.0,1100.0,1200.0,1180.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1060.0,1020.0,1010.0,1100.0,1150.0,1130.0,1060.0,1100.0,1080.0,1090.0,1050.0,1040.0,970.0,940.0,930.0,1020.0,1070.0,1050.0,970.0,1150.0,2600.0,3900.0,2400.0,1900.0,1600.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1250.0,1300.0,1280.0,1290.0,1240.0,1230.0,1130.0,1100.0,1090.0,1200.0,1260.0,1230.0,1140.0,1050.0,1030.0,1040.0,1000.0,990.0,920.0,890.0,880.0,970.0,1020.0,1000.0,920.0,880.0,860.0,870.0,840.0,880.0,780.0,750.0,740.0,820.0,860.0,840.0,780.0]}},{"title":"IUPAC nomenclature of organic chemistry","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"IUPAC nomenclature of organic chemistry\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[36121,36345,30805,27897,28398,27259,24306,30601,43223,44393,46966,39860,41282,41895,43916,31361,31771,29466,29560,32567,47983,48130,48729,43606,45766,45836,41914,35644,36764,31706,32462,38366,49502,50974,40769,38641,38213,32251,26971,23191,22564,19969,20741,22954,28623,33971,34072,29037,31132,32649,30402,33068,28743,24666,24351,27748,37792,38740,34790,36362,37700,34427,33659,27025,22374,19960,20714,18176,20503,19113,19096,21673,22148,20433,21611,18127,16079,13310,13276,12972,16881,17797,18979,16689,16808,15556,13940,10590,11645,11136,10732,10548,14553,15711,14844,13002,14303,13902,14118,12179,12021,10548,9416,9217,13016,14498,14991,14202,14582,13086,10607,8880,9457,8721,7824,7422,8709,8915,8658,7549],"flat_reference_value":16939.88386648493,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[52000.0,57000.0,55000.0,49000.0,39000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,50000.0,57000.0,55000.0,42000.0,53000.0,58000.0,57000.0,50000.0,41000.0,34000.0,35000.0,42000.0,53000.0,60000.0,57000.0,44000.0,56000.0,61000.0,59000.0,52000.0,42000.0,35000.0,36000.0,43000.0,55000.0,62000.0,59000.0,46000.0,58000.0,63000.0,61000.0,54000.0,44000.0,36000.0,38000.0,45000.0,57000.0,65000.0,61000.0,47000.0,60000.0,65000.0,59000.0,49000.0,43000.0,38000.0,40000.0,47000.0,62000.0,70000.0,68000.0,52000.0,65000.0,70000.0,68000.0,59000.0,49000.0,41000.0,42000.0,49000.0,63000.0,71000.0,67000.0,51000.0,63000.0,68000.0,66000.0,58000.0,47000.0,39000.0,41000.0,48000.0,61000.0,69000.0,65000.0,49000.0,61000.0,66000.0,64000.0,56000.0,45000.0,37000.0,39000.0,46000.0,59000.0,67000.0,63000.0,47000.0,59000.0,64000.0,62000.0,54000.0,43000.0,35000.0,37000.0,44000.0,57000.0,64000.0,60000.0,45000.0,56000.0,61000.0,59000.0,51000.0,41000.0,33000.0,35000.0,42000.0,54000.0,61000.0,57000.0,43000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[62000.0,74000.0,76000.0,78000.0,71000.0,52000.0,46000.0,53000.0,79000.0,88000.0,85000.0,64000.0,61000.0,72000.0,75000.0,74000.0,69000.0,50000.0,45000.0,51000.0,77000.0,86000.0,83000.0,62000.0,60000.0,70000.0,73000.0,73000.0,67000.0,49000.0,44000.0,50000.0,75000.0,84000.0,80000.0,60000.0,58000.0,68000.0,71000.0,71000.0,66000.0,48000.0,43000.0,49000.0,74000.0,82000.0,78000.0,59000.0,57000.0,67000.0,65000.0,76000.0,72000.0,54000.0,48000.0,53000.0,78000.0,86000.0,82000.0,63000.0,61000.0,69000.0,73000.0,72000.0,66000.0,49000.0,44000.0,49000.0,71000.0,78000.0,75000.0,57000.0,55000.0,64000.0,68000.0,66000.0,61000.0,45000.0,40000.0,45000.0,67000.0,74000.0,71000.0,53000.0,51000.0,59000.0,62000.0,60000.0,55000.0,41000.0,37000.0,41000.0,60000.0,66000.0,63000.0,48000.0,46000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,49000.0,37000.0,34000.0,38000.0,54000.0,60000.0,57000.0,43000.0,42000.0,48000.0,50000.0,49000.0,45000.0,34000.0,31000.0,35000.0,50000.0,55000.0,52000.0,40000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[42100.0,51400.0,57800.0,54600.0,50200.0,32100.0,26400.0,34500.0,53700.0,63800.0,60900.0,38200.0,44300.0,53800.0,60500.0,57100.0,52400.0,33600.0,27500.0,35900.0,55800.0,66400.0,63200.0,39800.0,46100.0,55900.0,62800.0,59300.0,54100.0,34800.0,28600.0,37200.0,57900.0,68900.0,65700.0,41500.0,45200.0,54500.0,61300.0,57800.0,52700.0,33400.0,27300.0,36100.0,56200.0,66800.0,63500.0,40100.0,44500.0,52900.0,43100.0,48300.0,47500.0,31200.0,25400.0,34100.0,52600.0,63500.0,61200.0,38400.0,41800.0,50400.0,57200.0,54100.0,48600.0,30500.0,24800.0,33200.0,51500.0,61800.0,59100.0,37000.0,39600.0,48200.0,54500.0,51300.0,46100.0,28900.0,23200.0,31400.0,48600.0,58200.0,55400.0,34500.0,34200.0,41500.0,46800.0,43700.0,39200.0,24400.0,19600.0,26500.0,40800.0,48900.0,46500.0,29100.0,31400.0,38200.0,42900.0,39800.0,35600.0,21800.0,17400.0,23900.0,36900.0,44500.0,42200.0,26400.0,29300.0,35500.0,39800.0,36700.0,33100.0,20200.0,16100.0,22400.0,34800.0,41700.0,39400.0,24600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[42800.0,48600.0,50400.0,47300.0,44100.0,36000.0,32400.0,36000.0,47300.0,53100.0,51800.0,38300.0,39900.0,45400.0,47000.0,44100.0,41200.0,33600.0,30200.0,33600.0,44100.0,49600.0,48300.0,35700.0,38000.0,43200.0,44800.0,42000.0,39200.0,32000.0,28800.0,32000.0,42000.0,47200.0,46000.0,34000.0,35200.0,40000.0,41400.0,38900.0,36300.0,29600.0,26600.0,29600.0,38900.0,43700.0,42600.0,31500.0,34200.0,38900.0,42500.0,40500.0,37000.0,29500.0,26000.0,28800.0,37800.0,42500.0,41400.0,30600.0,30400.0,34600.0,35800.0,33600.0,31400.0,25600.0,23000.0,25600.0,33600.0,37800.0,36800.0,27200.0,26600.0,30200.0,31400.0,29400.0,27400.0,22400.0,20200.0,22400.0,29400.0,33000.0,32200.0,23800.0,23800.0,27000.0,28000.0,26200.0,24500.0,20000.0,18000.0,20000.0,26200.0,29500.0,28800.0,21200.0,20900.0,23800.0,24600.0,23100.0,21600.0,17600.0,15800.0,17600.0,23100.0,26000.0,25300.0,18700.0,18000.0,20500.0,21300.0,20000.0,18600.0,15200.0,13700.0,15200.0,20000.0,22400.0,21900.0,16200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[57750.0,59400.0,57750.0,55000.0,52250.0,45100.0,44000.0,49500.0,61600.0,63250.0,60500.0,49500.0,52500.0,54000.0,52500.0,50000.0,47500.0,41000.0,40000.0,45000.0,56000.0,57500.0,55000.0,45000.0,44100.0,45400.0,44100.0,42000.0,39900.0,34400.0,33600.0,37800.0,47000.0,48300.0,46200.0,37800.0,39900.0,41000.0,39900.0,38000.0,36100.0,31200.0,30400.0,34200.0,42600.0,43700.0,41800.0,34200.0,42000.0,43200.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,36000.0,34650.0,35600.0,34650.0,33000.0,31350.0,27000.0,26400.0,29700.0,37000.0,38000.0,36300.0,29700.0,27300.0,28100.0,27300.0,26000.0,24700.0,21300.0,20800.0,23400.0,29100.0,29900.0,28600.0,23400.0,24150.0,24800.0,24150.0,23000.0,21850.0,18900.0,18400.0,20700.0,25800.0,26450.0,25300.0,20700.0,22050.0,22700.0,22050.0,21000.0,19950.0,17200.0,16800.0,18900.0,23500.0,24150.0,23100.0,18900.0,20000.0,20500.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,15600.0,15200.0,17100.0,21300.0,21800.0,20900.0,17100.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[33800.0,34900.0,37200.0,36100.0,31500.0,22900.0,18100.0,27800.0,39000.0,41200.0,33100.0,22400.0,36100.0,38300.0,39800.0,38400.0,34600.0,24300.0,19100.0,29600.0,41500.0,43700.0,34900.0,23900.0,38400.0,40200.0,42100.0,40700.0,36600.0,25700.0,20300.0,31200.0,43900.0,46100.0,37200.0,25400.0,39500.0,41300.0,43200.0,41900.0,37400.0,26400.0,21000.0,32100.0,45000.0,47000.0,38300.0,26000.0,37100.0,38900.0,46300.0,44200.0,36600.0,23600.0,19900.0,28200.0,37800.0,39300.0,32200.0,23700.0,38600.0,40400.0,42900.0,41600.0,36900.0,25600.0,20700.0,31400.0,45200.0,47300.0,39000.0,26200.0,40700.0,42500.0,45100.0,43800.0,38700.0,27000.0,22200.0,33000.0,46500.0,49000.0,40600.0,27700.0,38900.0,40600.0,42700.0,41400.0,36800.0,25700.0,20200.0,29600.0,41800.0,43600.0,36500.0,25000.0,33400.0,34900.0,36600.0,35500.0,31700.0,22100.0,18300.0,26900.0,38200.0,39800.0,33300.0,22800.0,29200.0,30400.0,31900.0,31000.0,27600.0,19300.0,16000.0,23400.0,33100.0,34400.0,29000.0,19900.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[26412.0,31875.0,33984.0,31920.0,22745.0,16520.0,15988.0,21430.0,33850.0,36720.0,32810.0,17105.0,25980.0,31940.0,33215.0,31100.0,21850.0,16230.0,16110.0,20900.0,33380.0,35500.0,32670.0,16840.0,25340.0,30120.0,32150.0,30780.0,20890.0,15720.0,15580.0,20120.0,31540.0,34790.0,30960.0,16150.0,24010.0,29580.0,30320.0,29100.0,20650.0,15080.0,14920.0,19380.0,30890.0,32940.0,30310.0,15560.0,26890.0,32950.0,42360.0,44520.0,27540.0,18690.0,16820.0,21840.0,35180.0,38120.0,34250.0,17480.0,25930.0,31380.0,32100.0,30820.0,21350.0,15960.0,15840.0,20570.0,32750.0,34920.0,32110.0,16490.0,23040.0,28420.0,29180.0,27900.0,19320.0,14480.0,14390.0,18610.0,29680.0,31570.0,29140.0,14920.0,21180.0,26120.0,26740.0,25590.0,17760.0,13280.0,13210.0,17130.0,27280.0,28960.0,26790.0,13680.0,20250.0,24980.0,25540.0,24510.0,16980.0,12670.0,12620.0,16380.0,26050.0,27720.0,25610.0,13090.0,19320.0,23810.0,24380.0,23340.0,16150.0,12090.0,12030.0,15620.0,24870.0,26410.0,24420.0,12480.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[52800.0,53800.0,49900.0,49000.0,41700.0,38100.0,35600.0,41300.0,58200.0,54700.0,47600.0,41200.0,53900.0,54900.0,51500.0,50000.0,43100.0,39200.0,36800.0,41700.0,58800.0,56400.0,49000.0,41700.0,55600.0,56600.0,53000.0,51500.0,44400.0,40400.0,37900.0,42900.0,60600.0,58100.0,50500.0,42900.0,57200.0,58200.0,54600.0,53000.0,45800.0,41600.0,39000.0,44200.0,62400.0,59800.0,52000.0,44200.0,61600.0,62700.0,67600.0,71400.0,56700.0,49300.0,43000.0,48000.0,70000.0,66000.0,56500.0,47000.0,63900.0,63700.0,61100.0,57900.0,51300.0,45200.0,43600.0,48100.0,70400.0,65200.0,58300.0,48100.0,61900.0,64500.0,58800.0,59000.0,49400.0,46300.0,42100.0,49300.0,67100.0,66400.0,56100.0,49300.0,63100.0,62400.0,60200.0,56700.0,50500.0,44400.0,43200.0,47300.0,68700.0,64100.0,57300.0,47300.0,62300.0,65300.0,59600.0,59500.0,49800.0,46800.0,42400.0,49600.0,68100.0,66900.0,56600.0,49600.0,65700.0,65200.0,62900.0,59300.0,52600.0,46400.0,45100.0,49500.0,71600.0,67100.0,59800.0,49400.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4980.0,5520.0,5680.0,6070.0,6510.0,4410.0,3740.0,4260.0,5790.0,6030.0,5560.0,5120.0,5480.0,5920.0,6210.0,6390.0,7010.0,4890.0,4020.0,4710.0,6090.0,6520.0,6110.0,5670.0,5760.0,6350.0,6680.0,6960.0,7520.0,5090.0,4310.0,5030.0,6540.0,6970.0,6410.0,6070.0,6190.0,6660.0,7010.0,7290.0,7890.0,5480.0,4520.0,5270.0,6880.0,7310.0,6860.0,6380.0,6710.0,7180.0,7590.0,8020.0,8610.0,5920.0,4890.0,5710.0,7540.0,7890.0,7420.0,6910.0,6880.0,7420.0,7780.0,8120.0,8790.0,6110.0,5030.0,5890.0,7790.0,8120.0,7640.0,7080.0,6460.0,6990.0,7330.0,7660.0,8270.0,5740.0,4740.0,5530.0,7310.0,7660.0,7190.0,6670.0,5960.0,6460.0,6780.0,7080.0,7630.0,5310.0,4390.0,5120.0,6760.0,7080.0,6650.0,6160.0,5480.0,5930.0,6220.0,6500.0,7000.0,4870.0,4030.0,4700.0,6210.0,6500.0,6100.0,5650.0,5090.0,5510.0,5780.0,6040.0,6510.0,4520.0,3740.0,4370.0,5770.0,6040.0,5670.0,5250.0],"meta/muse-ember":[10150.0,11100.0,11500.0,10750.0,10200.0,8300.0,6400.0,7700.0,12000.0,11500.0,9800.0,7600.0,10700.0,11700.0,12100.0,11300.0,10800.0,8700.0,6800.0,8200.0,12700.0,11900.0,10700.0,8000.0,11200.0,12300.0,12700.0,12000.0,11300.0,9200.0,7100.0,8600.0,13300.0,12400.0,11100.0,8400.0,11800.0,12900.0,13300.0,12600.0,11800.0,9600.0,7400.0,9000.0,14000.0,13100.0,11600.0,8800.0,12400.0,13600.0,17100.0,16000.0,13400.0,9800.0,7800.0,9500.0,17700.0,16300.0,13800.0,9900.0,13400.0,14600.0,15100.0,14300.0,13400.0,10900.0,8400.0,10200.0,15900.0,14800.0,13100.0,9900.0,12800.0,13900.0,14300.0,13700.0,12800.0,10400.0,8000.0,9700.0,15000.0,14200.0,12600.0,9500.0,11900.0,12900.0,13200.0,12700.0,11600.0,9500.0,7300.0,8800.0,13800.0,13100.0,11600.0,8700.0,10900.0,11900.0,12300.0,11800.0,10800.0,8800.0,6800.0,8200.0,12800.0,12200.0,10800.0,8100.0,10100.0,11000.0,11400.0,11000.0,10000.0,8200.0,6300.0,7600.0,11900.0,11300.0,10000.0,7400.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[22140.0,19800.0,18720.0,17640.0,18000.0,13500.0,11700.0,15300.0,22860.0,21060.0,19080.0,16200.0,24600.0,22000.0,20800.0,19600.0,20000.0,15000.0,13000.0,17000.0,25400.0,23400.0,21200.0,18000.0,27060.0,24200.0,22880.0,21560.0,22000.0,16500.0,14300.0,18700.0,27940.0,25740.0,23320.0,19800.0,29520.0,26400.0,24960.0,23520.0,24000.0,18000.0,15600.0,20400.0,30480.0,28080.0,25440.0,21600.0,34440.0,30800.0,29120.0,27440.0,28000.0,21000.0,18200.0,23800.0,35560.0,32760.0,29680.0,25200.0,38130.0,34100.0,32240.0,30380.0,31000.0,23250.0,20150.0,26350.0,39370.0,36270.0,32860.0,27900.0,35055.0,31350.0,29640.0,27930.0,28500.0,21375.0,18525.0,24225.0,36195.0,33345.0,30210.0,25650.0,31980.0,28600.0,27040.0,25480.0,26000.0,19500.0,16900.0,22100.0,33020.0,30420.0,27560.0,23400.0,28905.0,25850.0,24440.0,23030.0,23500.0,17625.0,15275.0,19975.0,29845.0,27495.0,24910.0,21150.0,25830.0,23100.0,21840.0,20580.0,21000.0,15750.0,13650.0,17850.0,26670.0,24570.0,22260.0,18900.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[124000.0,117000.0,137000.0,129000.0,116000.0,101000.0,94000.0,143000.0,208000.0,247000.0,224000.0,137000.0,132000.0,125000.0,144000.0,135000.0,122000.0,106000.0,99000.0,151000.0,220000.0,260000.0,237000.0,145000.0,139000.0,131000.0,151000.0,143000.0,130000.0,112000.0,105000.0,159000.0,231000.0,273000.0,249000.0,153000.0,144000.0,136000.0,158000.0,148000.0,134000.0,116000.0,108000.0,164000.0,238000.0,281000.0,255000.0,157000.0,154000.0,147000.0,203000.0,229000.0,216000.0,190000.0,175000.0,242000.0,316000.0,378000.0,345000.0,209000.0,181000.0,172000.0,202000.0,199000.0,183000.0,160000.0,149000.0,217000.0,289000.0,346000.0,316000.0,194000.0,171000.0,161000.0,187000.0,178000.0,162000.0,141000.0,132000.0,198000.0,263000.0,307000.0,279000.0,174000.0,163000.0,155000.0,180000.0,171000.0,155000.0,135000.0,126000.0,187000.0,252000.0,294000.0,268000.0,165000.0,168000.0,159000.0,185000.0,175000.0,159000.0,139000.0,130000.0,193000.0,260000.0,302000.0,275000.0,169000.0,161000.0,153000.0,177000.0,168000.0,152000.0,133000.0,124000.0,186000.0,248000.0,288000.0,263000.0,161000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,41800.0,41800.0,39900.0,36100.0,26600.0,24700.0,28500.0,38000.0,43700.0,43700.0,32300.0,40000.0,44000.0,44000.0,42000.0,38000.0,28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,40000.0,46000.0,46000.0,34000.0,42000.0,46200.0,46200.0,44100.0,39900.0,29400.0,27300.0,31500.0,42000.0,48300.0,48300.0,35700.0,43000.0,47300.0,47300.0,45200.0,40900.0,30100.0,28000.0,32300.0,43000.0,49500.0,49500.0,36500.0,46000.0,50600.0,52000.0,50000.0,43000.0,32000.0,29000.0,34000.0,44000.0,50000.0,50000.0,37000.0,45000.0,49500.0,49500.0,47200.0,42800.0,31500.0,29300.0,33800.0,45000.0,51800.0,51800.0,38300.0,42000.0,46200.0,46200.0,44100.0,39900.0,29400.0,27300.0,31500.0,42000.0,48300.0,48300.0,35700.0,40000.0,44000.0,44000.0,42000.0,38000.0,28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,40000.0,46000.0,46000.0,34000.0,36000.0,39600.0,39600.0,37800.0,34200.0,25200.0,23400.0,27000.0,36000.0,41400.0,41400.0,30600.0,31000.0,34100.0,34100.0,32500.0,29500.0,21700.0,20200.0,23300.0,31000.0,35600.0,35600.0,26400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[27320.0,25080.0,29210.0,27050.0,31040.0,21650.0,19100.0,23540.0,36910.0,38260.0,34210.0,34950.0,31510.0,28440.0,32850.0,31050.0,35420.0,24180.0,21680.0,26640.0,42030.0,43620.0,38880.0,39350.0,33160.0,30210.0,35450.0,32860.0,37040.0,25710.0,23540.0,28310.0,44690.0,45420.0,41830.0,42260.0,32020.0,29740.0,33850.0,31430.0,36470.0,25380.0,22830.0,27490.0,42760.0,44910.0,40120.0,40590.0,33320.0,30760.0,36410.0,34520.0,38900.0,27560.0,24820.0,29850.0,46120.0,48350.0,42760.0,42940.0,29140.0,27260.0,31380.0,29050.0,32820.0,23210.0,20450.0,25590.0,39020.0,40980.0,36460.0,36850.0,28510.0,25880.0,30250.0,28120.0,32260.0,22030.0,20160.0,24290.0,38320.0,39070.0,35740.0,35880.0,27110.0,24590.0,28720.0,26260.0,30580.0,21340.0,18730.0,23480.0,35770.0,37620.0,33450.0,33980.0,26240.0,23700.0,27760.0,25320.0,29580.0,20570.0,18080.0,22630.0,34460.0,36270.0,32940.0,32760.0,25290.0,23710.0,27280.0,24860.0,28540.0,20270.0,17720.0,22240.0,33890.0,35610.0,32280.0,32110.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[7900.0,8300.0,8900.0,8700.0,9000.0,8000.0,6500.0,6800.0,9600.0,9400.0,8600.0,6200.0,8100.0,8500.0,9200.0,9000.0,9300.0,8200.0,6700.0,7000.0,9900.0,9700.0,8900.0,6400.0,8500.0,8900.0,9600.0,9400.0,9700.0,8500.0,7000.0,7300.0,10300.0,10100.0,9200.0,6600.0,9000.0,9500.0,10300.0,10100.0,10500.0,9200.0,7600.0,7900.0,11100.0,10800.0,9900.0,7100.0,9700.0,10100.0,11000.0,10800.0,11400.0,10100.0,8500.0,8900.0,12100.0,11900.0,10900.0,7900.0,10200.0,10600.0,11500.0,11300.0,11800.0,10500.0,8800.0,9200.0,12500.0,12200.0,11200.0,8100.0,10000.0,10400.0,11200.0,11000.0,11500.0,10200.0,8600.0,9000.0,12200.0,11900.0,10900.0,7900.0,9800.0,10200.0,11000.0,10800.0,11300.0,10000.0,8400.0,8800.0,12000.0,11700.0,10700.0,7700.0,9700.0,10100.0,10900.0,10700.0,11200.0,9900.0,8300.0,8700.0,11900.0,11600.0,10600.0,7600.0,9500.0,9900.0,10700.0,10500.0,11000.0,9700.0,8100.0,8500.0,11700.0,11400.0,10400.0,7400.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1235.0,1365.0,1430.0,1365.0,1365.0,1170.0,1040.0,1105.0,1430.0,1495.0,1430.0,1040.0,1188.0,1313.0,1375.0,1313.0,1313.0,1125.0,1000.0,1063.0,1375.0,1438.0,1375.0,1000.0,1140.0,1260.0,1320.0,1260.0,1260.0,1080.0,960.0,1020.0,1320.0,1380.0,1320.0,960.0,1093.0,1208.0,1265.0,1208.0,1208.0,1035.0,920.0,978.0,1265.0,1323.0,1265.0,920.0,1140.0,1260.0,1380.0,1320.0,1290.0,1080.0,960.0,1020.0,1320.0,1380.0,1320.0,960.0,1045.0,1155.0,1210.0,1155.0,1155.0,990.0,880.0,935.0,1210.0,1265.0,1210.0,880.0,950.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,900.0,800.0,850.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,800.0,903.0,998.0,1045.0,998.0,998.0,855.0,760.0,808.0,1045.0,1093.0,1045.0,760.0,808.0,893.0,935.0,893.0,893.0,765.0,680.0,723.0,935.0,978.0,935.0,680.0,741.0,819.0,858.0,819.0,819.0,702.0,624.0,663.0,858.0,897.0,858.0,624.0]}},{"title":"Sukhoi Su-30MKI","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Sukhoi Su-30MKI\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[53925,54283,34791,36034,39056,38928,44803,38921,64797,63967,33237,33479,36965,36008,34203,28763,42120,31108,37022,34770,26558,28497,32510,26901,31197,26676,24061,23254,24272,21277,22078,26239,26392,26774,22289,18830,27700,127143,158279,37297,26841,25153,31279,41379,39155,38252,21551,22208,38285,24914,22964,27377,45970,74622,116064,55911,39296,28569,21582,19197,26574,26387,24534,23632,29627,25670,27571,30725,32942,27707,24604,29958,31499,32759,59373,27311,24761,27299,28104,37315,34746,36100,24825,26854,43848,38904,33970,32649,27223,24901,28405,33400,36216,32572,32654,37171,54059,41638,41369,41598,32776,30693,31333,34541,35300,40054,31175,38332,33759,48104,33818,43878,183018,54781,35678,33130,30756,35215,40306,26377],"flat_reference_value":16902.002135366467,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,43000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,57000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,52000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,39000.0,39000.0,41000.0,125000.0,95000.0,57000.0,49000.0,45000.0,46000.0,50000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,48000.0,48000.0,62000.0,63000.0,54000.0,52000.0,48000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,45000.0,48000.0,53000.0,59000.0,50000.0,49000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,50000.0,47000.0,48000.0,68000.0,55000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,48000.0,51000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,49000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,51000.0,60000.0,53000.0,55000.0,52000.0,53000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,54000.0,68000.0,300000.0,110000.0,75000.0,68000.0,61000.0,59000.0,55000.0,55000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[34200.0,33800.0,34500.0,33100.0,35400.0,34900.0,36200.0,37800.0,54600.0,58900.0,41200.0,38400.0,37900.0,42500.0,39100.0,37600.0,48300.0,41200.0,46800.0,47500.0,40300.0,43600.0,55400.0,39800.0,38500.0,36900.0,38200.0,42700.0,37400.0,46900.0,38800.0,39600.0,38100.0,43900.0,37200.0,36800.0,38400.0,118500.0,168000.0,64200.0,49500.0,42100.0,41800.0,58400.0,45200.0,47800.0,39600.0,38900.0,39200.0,37800.0,39500.0,42800.0,51400.0,96500.0,89200.0,67400.0,61800.0,53900.0,44100.0,41600.0,40800.0,46200.0,39700.0,38200.0,39100.0,38400.0,39900.0,41200.0,38700.0,43800.0,38500.0,44600.0,39100.0,53400.0,66800.0,46900.0,45800.0,38900.0,38200.0,39800.0,37600.0,42900.0,36800.0,43500.0,65200.0,51800.0,38900.0,36400.0,35800.0,35200.0,36700.0,37900.0,46800.0,41200.0,34900.0,34600.0,35400.0,34100.0,35800.0,34700.0,35200.0,48900.0,36800.0,42600.0,45900.0,40800.0,35600.0,41900.0,36200.0,47500.0,36900.0,58400.0,182000.0,71500.0,45800.0,41200.0,38400.0,41900.0,39600.0,36800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[68200.0,63400.0,65100.0,61200.0,59800.0,62500.0,64800.0,67300.0,76500.0,81200.0,70400.0,66100.0,71800.0,67400.0,69200.0,63800.0,84500.0,71200.0,78900.0,76400.0,68500.0,70300.0,66200.0,64100.0,72500.0,68100.0,70200.0,74300.0,66900.0,75800.0,67400.0,65200.0,69800.0,74100.0,68500.0,67200.0,74800.0,242000.0,315000.0,138000.0,96200.0,82400.0,76100.0,87500.0,75200.0,73800.0,71400.0,68300.0,73200.0,69500.0,72100.0,70800.0,78200.0,142000.0,136000.0,94500.0,84100.0,76200.0,71800.0,68900.0,71200.0,67400.0,68800.0,62100.0,61500.0,64800.0,67200.0,69400.0,65100.0,68300.0,64700.0,67800.0,66500.0,78400.0,81200.0,69100.0,64500.0,62800.0,65400.0,67100.0,63900.0,68200.0,62100.0,61400.0,74200.0,63500.0,64800.0,60200.0,58900.0,61200.0,59800.0,62400.0,64100.0,67500.0,61800.0,58200.0,63400.0,59100.0,61500.0,57800.0,56200.0,68500.0,58400.0,66100.0,59300.0,62800.0,58100.0,56400.0,60200.0,57100.0,58900.0,55400.0,54200.0,56100.0,55800.0,58200.0,56700.0,59400.0,55100.0,53800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[74000.0,70000.0,72000.0,69000.0,68000.0,66000.0,67000.0,68000.0,71000.0,70000.0,66000.0,63000.0,66000.0,62000.0,63000.0,61000.0,64000.0,60000.0,59000.0,58000.0,58000.0,60000.0,63000.0,56000.0,56000.0,54000.0,55000.0,54000.0,53000.0,51000.0,55000.0,52000.0,53000.0,52000.0,49000.0,48000.0,50000.0,135000.0,165000.0,72000.0,60000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,50000.0,46000.0,44000.0,47000.0,48000.0,68000.0,60000.0,50000.0,49000.0,47000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,42000.0,44000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,34000.0,150000.0,60000.0,42000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,74000.0,76000.0,70000.0,68000.0,72000.0,72000.0,70000.0,68000.0,85000.0,76000.0,74000.0,72000.0,68000.0,68000.0,72000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,64000.0,64000.0,63000.0,64000.0,66000.0,66000.0,66000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,68000.0,150000.0,210000.0,95000.0,80000.0,78000.0,72000.0,74000.0,72000.0,75000.0,62000.0,60000.0,64000.0,60000.0,60000.0,66000.0,80000.0,120000.0,125000.0,90000.0,85000.0,75000.0,66000.0,62000.0,66000.0,62000.0,58000.0,54000.0,54000.0,54000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,52000.0,58000.0,65000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48000.0,55000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,47000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,50000.0,47000.0,48000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,52000.0,58000.0,52000.0,70000.0,260000.0,90000.0,68000.0,64000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[31500.0,29800.0,30400.0,29100.0,30200.0,28600.0,31800.0,30900.0,36400.0,35100.0,32200.0,27600.0,28400.0,29200.0,30100.0,31300.0,28900.0,34200.0,39100.0,37400.0,33200.0,31800.0,35900.0,30800.0,29300.0,30100.0,31200.0,29800.0,32100.0,30200.0,31300.0,31900.0,33600.0,38200.0,32600.0,28300.0,34100.0,176000.0,96000.0,51000.0,56000.0,41000.0,32600.0,33400.0,32900.0,30300.0,29400.0,27200.0,29100.0,30200.0,34300.0,31400.0,32900.0,68500.0,55200.0,40700.0,42100.0,34100.0,30200.0,28400.0,30200.0,29300.0,30400.0,32600.0,29500.0,32200.0,30100.0,31300.0,31900.0,30400.0,33200.0,31800.0,61500.0,32400.0,39800.0,29300.0,30100.0,31200.0,29800.0,30900.0,29200.0,30300.0,31200.0,28900.0,28100.0,27300.0,29400.0,28200.0,29800.0,28900.0,30400.0,29100.0,31300.0,30600.0,31900.0,28400.0,27500.0,28200.0,31400.0,28600.0,29300.0,31100.0,30200.0,28900.0,29800.0,29200.0,31300.0,28100.0,27900.0,28800.0,30100.0,38400.0,158000.0,76000.0,49000.0,37000.0,32400.0,30600.0,29300.0,28200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":null,"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[48000.0,45000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,41000.0,78000.0,62000.0,46000.0,42000.0,47000.0,54000.0,47000.0,43000.0,42000.0,52000.0,72000.0,63000.0,52000.0,51000.0,45000.0,42000.0,50000.0,48000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,43000.0,50000.0,57000.0,53000.0,48000.0,56000.0,455000.0,195000.0,88000.0,72000.0,63000.0,60000.0,112000.0,76000.0,70000.0,63000.0,58000.0,64000.0,62000.0,50000.0,45000.0,49000.0,96000.0,86000.0,79000.0,71000.0,68000.0,63000.0,58000.0,69000.0,81000.0,65000.0,58000.0,55000.0,53000.0,51000.0,55000.0,58000.0,63000.0,56000.0,52000.0,59000.0,76000.0,71000.0,56000.0,53000.0,55000.0,53000.0,53000.0,62000.0,61000.0,56000.0,53000.0,56000.0,73000.0,59000.0,53000.0,51000.0,56000.0,53000.0,56000.0,61000.0,59000.0,53000.0,51000.0,59000.0,61000.0,53000.0,51000.0,56000.0,53000.0,53000.0,59000.0,56000.0,59000.0,53000.0,51000.0,60000.0,70000.0,56000.0,92000.0,325000.0,118000.0,76000.0,66000.0,63000.0,70000.0,59000.0,55000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2900.0,3000.0,2700.0,2450.0,5600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2800.0,2550.0,2500.0,2400.0,2200.0,3100.0,3400.0,2900.0,2600.0,4800.0,2700.0,2650.0,3000.0,2750.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3100.0,2800.0,2950.0,5200.0,2900.0,3200.0,2950.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,3700.0,32000.0,9000.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3800.0,3900.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,4200.0,3400.0,3700.0,3450.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3800.0,3900.0,3500.0,3200.0,3350.0,3250.0,3300.0,3650.0,3400.0,3350.0,3250.0,3050.0,4000.0,4200.0,3700.0,3400.0,3550.0,3450.0,3500.0,3850.0,3600.0,3550.0,3450.0,3250.0,4100.0,4600.0,3800.0,3500.0,3650.0,3550.0,3600.0,3950.0,3700.0,3650.0,3550.0,3350.0,4300.0,4500.0,4050.0,3700.0,3850.0,5200.0,3800.0,4150.0,3900.0,3850.0,3750.0,3550.0,4700.0,5400.0,4400.0,6000.0,40000.0,12000.0,4300.0,4600.0,4300.0,4250.0,4150.0,3950.0],"meta/muse-ember":[8500.0,8000.0,8900.0,8300.0,8100.0,7600.0,7800.0,8300.0,10800.0,9200.0,8700.0,8100.0,9000.0,8600.0,9500.0,9100.0,13200.0,11200.0,8700.0,9100.0,9600.0,9900.0,9700.0,8900.0,9800.0,9300.0,10200.0,9900.0,9500.0,8900.0,8800.0,9400.0,10100.0,10400.0,12200.0,9800.0,10700.0,33000.0,19500.0,12200.0,11400.0,10700.0,10400.0,11100.0,11900.0,13600.0,12100.0,11100.0,12400.0,11800.0,11500.0,11000.0,14300.0,23200.0,17500.0,13600.0,13100.0,12800.0,13400.0,12200.0,13400.0,12800.0,14100.0,14800.0,13500.0,12600.0,12800.0,13600.0,14300.0,14700.0,14100.0,13000.0,14200.0,22500.0,20200.0,16100.0,14900.0,14000.0,13800.0,14500.0,15100.0,21400.0,15400.0,16200.0,21500.0,18200.0,17000.0,16300.0,15700.0,14800.0,15000.0,15800.0,16500.0,17200.0,16700.0,17800.0,18200.0,19100.0,19900.0,19100.0,18400.0,18100.0,17600.0,18500.0,19400.0,20200.0,19600.0,18600.0,19800.0,21600.0,20700.0,19800.0,88000.0,38000.0,24000.0,21000.0,21700.0,22400.0,21800.0,20300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[18414.0,17748.0,19902.0,19620.0,19716.0,17280.0,16740.0,17112.0,18180.0,19902.0,19440.0,16554.0,20255.0,18850.0,21892.0,21582.0,48000.0,21500.0,18414.0,18823.0,19998.0,21892.0,21384.0,18209.0,22405.0,21594.0,24214.0,23872.0,23989.0,21024.0,20367.0,20820.0,22119.0,24214.0,23652.0,20140.0,25166.0,230000.0,72000.0,40000.0,26946.0,23616.0,22877.0,23386.0,24846.0,27199.0,26568.0,22624.0,29157.0,28101.0,37800.0,38800.0,37500.0,62000.0,66000.0,37900.0,33100.0,31512.0,30780.0,26210.0,33145.0,39900.0,35824.0,40600.0,40800.0,31104.0,30132.0,30802.0,32724.0,35824.0,34992.0,29797.0,35291.0,54400.0,68700.0,56400.0,49100.0,35500.0,34500.0,35000.0,36000.0,39000.0,38500.0,33500.0,32225.0,40400.0,34829.0,34335.0,34503.0,30240.0,29295.0,29946.0,35000.0,34829.0,34020.0,28970.0,30690.0,29580.0,41500.0,36000.0,36100.0,28800.0,27900.0,28520.0,30300.0,33170.0,32400.0,27590.0,30077.0,37700.0,32510.0,65000.0,240000.0,55000.0,35500.0,28500.0,30000.0,32500.0,31800.0,27500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[49000.0,53000.0,46000.0,48000.0,56000.0,76000.0,102000.0,62000.0,55000.0,60000.0,75000.0,58000.0,62000.0,54000.0,83000.0,51000.0,56000.0,91000.0,96000.0,58000.0,57000.0,64000.0,74000.0,61000.0,64000.0,116000.0,58000.0,68000.0,59000.0,79000.0,58000.0,54000.0,60000.0,77000.0,69000.0,63000.0,88000.0,760000.0,185000.0,52000.0,48000.0,69000.0,75000.0,88000.0,77000.0,172000.0,96000.0,87000.0,90000.0,126000.0,99000.0,82000.0,76000.0,245000.0,163000.0,115000.0,94000.0,141000.0,94000.0,89000.0,100000.0,141000.0,101000.0,91000.0,89000.0,188000.0,133000.0,102000.0,98000.0,119000.0,106000.0,101000.0,115000.0,183000.0,252000.0,154000.0,129000.0,137000.0,114000.0,151000.0,127000.0,154000.0,146000.0,130000.0,137000.0,126000.0,215000.0,153000.0,144000.0,147000.0,121000.0,141000.0,125000.0,137000.0,157000.0,140000.0,147000.0,135000.0,141000.0,168000.0,455000.0,188000.0,145000.0,141000.0,151000.0,143000.0,160000.0,148000.0,156000.0,173000.0,164000.0,330000.0,1280000.0,350000.0,190000.0,165000.0,153000.0,168000.0,164000.0,156000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[42000.0,45000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,75000.0,60000.0,47000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,48000.0,47000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,46000.0,55000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,45000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,85000.0,60000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,49000.0,48000.0,48000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1208.0,1265.0,1093.0,1150.0,1328.0,1380.0,1438.0,1785.0,1127.0,1104.0,1150.0,1265.0,2625.0,2475.0,1188.0,1250.0,1375.0,1575.0,1563.0,1438.0,1286.0,1200.0,1375.0,1375.0,1675.0,1595.0,1378.0,1450.0,5573.0,1740.0,1994.0,1751.0,1421.0,1462.0,1450.0,1675.0,1874.0,9350.0,2584.0,1700.0,2057.0,2142.0,2231.0,2054.0,1834.0,1795.0,1700.0,1870.0,1488.0,1485.0,1348.0,1350.0,2153.0,2268.0,1688.0,2329.0,2117.0,1685.0,1485.0,1485.0,1386.0,1320.0,1140.0,1440.0,1320.0,1440.0,1500.0,1518.0,1176.0,1267.0,1440.0,1584.0,1638.0,1573.0,1235.0,1430.0,1716.0,1638.0,1788.0,1645.0,1400.0,1373.0,1300.0,1573.0,1953.0,11083.0,2209.0,1705.0,1876.0,1953.0,2043.0,1958.0,1594.0,1637.0,1705.0,1876.0,1559.0,1485.0,1411.0,1485.0,1708.0,1701.0,1856.0,1785.0,1389.0,1361.0,1418.0,1634.0,1953.0,5968.0,1621.0,7750.0,11083.0,3720.0,2325.0,1958.0,1668.0,1637.0,1705.0,2046.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3900.0,3400.0,3600.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3900.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,5700.0,29000.0,21000.0,10500.0,8500.0,7800.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,7500.0,7200.0,6800.0,7300.0,7000.0,7800.0,7600.0,8200.0,11500.0,9200.0,11200.0,9400.0,8500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7200.0,6800.0,7000.0,6500.0,6400.0,6600.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,6200.0,6000.0,6300.0,6500.0,6900.0,6600.0,6400.0,7200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7100.0,7300.0,6800.0,6500.0,14500.0,9000.0,7300.0,7000.0,6800.0,7100.0,7400.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,7200.0,6900.0,7400.0,8000.0,7500.0,12000.0,9200.0,8000.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,7800.0,9000.0,45000.0,22000.0,11500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,8500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[14000.0,13500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,13500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,14500.0,14000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,16000.0,65000.0,42000.0,22000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18500.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,19000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18500.0,22000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,19000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,22000.0,90000.0,35000.0,22000.0,19000.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0]}},{"title":"Caveat emptor","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Caveat emptor\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[18788,18692,19707,17392,18126,16263,14256,16159,17123,17260,17990,16052,16726,15584,19720,16644,17442,14136,15830,14555,15450,16626,15669,14221,19608,14589,16488,16665,15817,15006,13621,14859,13275,14673,13779,13103,13242,12568,15574,14723,13708,12501,12625,11083,12292,13952,13770,14764,12448,11580,11946,13026,13746,11331,11482,12251,12008,13359,13232,13231,13343,12170,12879,11772,10062,10151,10826,9345,9147,9441,9719,9717,10181,9346,9281,8184,7891,7281,7550,7421,6609,6628,6818,5980,6792,5810,6670,5929,6308,6683,6665,7076,6763,8137,7022,6428,7242,6586,8259,7527,7861,7870,7343,6135,6409,7262,6441,6808,7470,6946,8235,7291,7143,6340,6593,7374,6742,6849,6545,6273],"flat_reference_value":17003.199714631795,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[22200.0,23100.0,24500.0,23700.0,23100.0,21000.0,20200.0,21500.0,24100.0,25700.0,24800.0,21800.0,23900.0,24200.0,26500.0,25000.0,25200.0,22500.0,21900.0,23000.0,25500.0,27400.0,26200.0,23200.0,25100.0,25400.0,27800.0,26600.0,26700.0,23900.0,23100.0,24500.0,26700.0,29100.0,27900.0,24400.0,26300.0,26300.0,28700.0,27800.0,27700.0,24900.0,24200.0,25300.0,27900.0,30200.0,28700.0,25200.0,27400.0,27300.0,27900.0,25500.0,25000.0,23800.0,24400.0,25100.0,27800.0,29100.0,28000.0,25400.0,27900.0,27900.0,31000.0,30000.0,29300.0,26700.0,25800.0,27200.0,29900.0,32000.0,31000.0,27300.0,29200.0,28700.0,31700.0,30200.0,30400.0,27400.0,26600.0,28000.0,30600.0,32500.0,31200.0,27500.0,29600.0,28600.0,31800.0,29900.0,30300.0,27400.0,26300.0,27800.0,30000.0,32100.0,30600.0,26900.0,28800.0,28400.0,30500.0,29700.0,29400.0,26300.0,25500.0,26900.0,29100.0,31000.0,29100.0,25900.0,27800.0,26900.0,29200.0,28200.0,27800.0,24800.0,24100.0,25200.0,27500.0,29400.0,27600.0,24400.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[34200.0,36800.0,37500.0,36100.0,33400.0,28900.0,27600.0,30200.0,37900.0,39400.0,38100.0,31500.0,33800.0,35900.0,37100.0,35200.0,32800.0,28100.0,26900.0,29400.0,36700.0,38200.0,36900.0,30400.0,32500.0,34200.0,35600.0,34100.0,31500.0,26800.0,25900.0,28300.0,35100.0,36800.0,35400.0,29100.0,31200.0,32900.0,34300.0,32800.0,30400.0,25900.0,25100.0,27400.0,33900.0,35500.0,33800.0,28200.0,30600.0,32100.0,30800.0,31900.0,30500.0,27200.0,26400.0,28100.0,33400.0,34900.0,33200.0,27900.0,29800.0,31400.0,33100.0,31800.0,29500.0,25800.0,24900.0,26700.0,31900.0,33200.0,31600.0,26400.0,28300.0,29700.0,31200.0,29600.0,27400.0,23800.0,22900.0,24600.0,29800.0,31100.0,29500.0,24500.0,26200.0,27400.0,28600.0,26900.0,24800.0,21300.0,20500.0,21900.0,26400.0,27500.0,26100.0,21600.0,23100.0,24200.0,25100.0,23800.0,21900.0,18700.0,18100.0,19300.0,23200.0,24100.0,22800.0,18900.0,20100.0,21200.0,22100.0,20900.0,19200.0,16500.0,15900.0,17100.0,20600.0,21400.0,20200.0,16800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[46200.0,51400.0,54200.0,52100.0,43500.0,33100.0,31200.0,36800.0,50900.0,56100.0,54300.0,37200.0,45100.0,50800.0,53600.0,50900.0,42100.0,32400.0,30500.0,35900.0,49800.0,54900.0,53200.0,36400.0,44300.0,49500.0,52100.0,49400.0,41200.0,31500.0,29800.0,34600.0,48200.0,53100.0,51600.0,35100.0,42800.0,47900.0,50400.0,47800.0,39800.0,30200.0,28600.0,33400.0,46500.0,51300.0,49700.0,33900.0,41500.0,46200.0,44100.0,38900.0,36200.0,29100.0,27400.0,32100.0,45100.0,49800.0,48200.0,33100.0,41100.0,46100.0,48900.0,46400.0,38700.0,29500.0,27800.0,32600.0,45200.0,49900.0,48100.0,32700.0,39800.0,44500.0,47200.0,44800.0,37200.0,28400.0,26900.0,31400.0,43600.0,48100.0,46300.0,31500.0,38200.0,42700.0,45300.0,42900.0,35600.0,27100.0,25800.0,30200.0,41800.0,46200.0,44500.0,30100.0,36800.0,41200.0,43600.0,41400.0,34200.0,26200.0,24900.0,29100.0,40100.0,44400.0,42800.0,28900.0,35200.0,39500.0,41900.0,39800.0,32900.0,25100.0,23800.0,27900.0,38500.0,42600.0,41100.0,27800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[23500.0,24200.0,25800.0,24900.0,23600.0,21200.0,20400.0,20900.0,22800.0,24300.0,24100.0,20500.0,22300.0,22800.0,24100.0,22900.0,22100.0,19800.0,19100.0,19500.0,21300.0,22600.0,22400.0,18900.0,20700.0,21100.0,22200.0,21300.0,20500.0,18400.0,17800.0,18100.0,19700.0,20900.0,20600.0,17400.0,19200.0,19600.0,20500.0,19800.0,19000.0,17100.0,16600.0,16900.0,18300.0,19400.0,19100.0,16200.0,18100.0,18400.0,20100.0,20800.0,19500.0,17300.0,16500.0,16400.0,17200.0,18000.0,17700.0,15300.0,17000.0,16900.0,17600.0,17100.0,16600.0,15000.0,14500.0,14700.0,15600.0,16300.0,16500.0,14200.0,15600.0,15400.0,15900.0,15200.0,15000.0,13700.0,13200.0,13300.0,14100.0,14800.0,15100.0,12900.0,14100.0,14000.0,14600.0,13900.0,13600.0,12400.0,12000.0,12100.0,12900.0,13500.0,13400.0,11600.0,12800.0,12700.0,13200.0,12700.0,12400.0,11300.0,10900.0,11000.0,11700.0,12200.0,12100.0,10500.0,11600.0,11500.0,11900.0,11400.0,11100.0,10100.0,9800.0,9900.0,10500.0,10900.0,10800.0,9400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[46000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,45000.0,47000.0,47000.0,40000.0,44000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,42000.0,37000.0,35000.0,37000.0,42000.0,44000.0,44000.0,37000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,40000.0,40000.0,33000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36000.0,31000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,23000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,21000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,19000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,18000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3760.0,3540.0,3490.0,3410.0,3260.0,3020.0,2930.0,2960.0,3790.0,3620.0,3180.0,2980.0,3610.0,3470.0,3390.0,3180.0,3090.0,2870.0,2760.0,2810.0,3640.0,3450.0,3040.0,2850.0,3390.0,3230.0,3150.0,3020.0,2940.0,2760.0,2640.0,2560.0,3410.0,3330.0,2900.0,2700.0,3220.0,3060.0,3010.0,2940.0,2700.0,2630.0,2490.0,2510.0,3260.0,3140.0,2720.0,2560.0,3060.0,2910.0,3380.0,3240.0,3050.0,2440.0,2310.0,2370.0,3090.0,2950.0,2600.0,2440.0,2950.0,3120.0,2820.0,2610.0,2540.0,2360.0,2280.0,2220.0,2960.0,2830.0,2500.0,2350.0,2720.0,2540.0,2590.0,2410.0,2330.0,2170.0,2060.0,2110.0,2740.0,2640.0,2950.0,2180.0,2500.0,2330.0,2390.0,2220.0,2150.0,2000.0,1920.0,1880.0,2520.0,2410.0,2100.0,1990.0,2380.0,2270.0,2300.0,2120.0,2050.0,1940.0,1840.0,1870.0,2400.0,2350.0,2260.0,1910.0,2090.0,1980.0,2020.0,1880.0,1810.0,1700.0,1600.0,1640.0,2100.0,2040.0,1780.0,1690.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3865.0,3920.0,4105.0,3798.0,3724.0,3185.0,3012.0,3120.0,3810.0,4025.0,3755.0,2980.0,3650.0,3690.0,3915.0,3645.0,3580.0,3050.0,2885.0,2990.0,3635.0,3840.0,3595.0,2855.0,3490.0,3525.0,3750.0,3480.0,3425.0,2915.0,2760.0,2865.0,3485.0,3695.0,3440.0,2735.0,3325.0,3370.0,3575.0,3320.0,3270.0,2785.0,2630.0,2725.0,3320.0,3510.0,3290.0,2605.0,3540.0,3595.0,4280.0,4520.0,4085.0,3080.0,2830.0,3015.0,3550.0,3735.0,3590.0,2780.0,3235.0,3260.0,3450.0,3215.0,3165.0,2690.0,2555.0,2640.0,3220.0,3405.0,3185.0,2525.0,3015.0,3040.0,3230.0,3005.0,2960.0,2515.0,2385.0,2470.0,3010.0,3175.0,3650.0,2580.0,2860.0,2885.0,3065.0,2845.0,2805.0,2380.0,2265.0,2335.0,2855.0,3015.0,2810.0,2235.0,2755.0,2780.0,2950.0,2735.0,2700.0,2295.0,2180.0,2250.0,2745.0,2905.0,2705.0,2150.0,2645.0,2675.0,2835.0,2630.0,2595.0,2205.0,2095.0,2165.0,2640.0,2790.0,2605.0,2065.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[7300.0,7150.0,6900.0,6550.0,6350.0,5850.0,5650.0,5950.0,6750.0,6950.0,6900.0,6200.0,7600.0,7450.0,7250.0,6900.0,6650.0,6100.0,5900.0,6250.0,7050.0,7300.0,7800.0,8200.0,7900.0,7250.0,6900.0,6550.0,6350.0,5900.0,5750.0,6100.0,6850.0,7050.0,7050.0,6400.0,7500.0,7350.0,7150.0,6800.0,6550.0,6000.0,5800.0,6150.0,6950.0,7150.0,7150.0,6500.0,8350.0,8200.0,8900.0,8600.0,7800.0,7100.0,6900.0,7300.0,8150.0,8400.0,8450.0,7600.0,9900.0,9400.0,8800.0,8300.0,7950.0,7450.0,7150.0,7550.0,8600.0,8850.0,9100.0,8150.0,9350.0,9100.0,9000.0,8550.0,8300.0,8100.0,7750.0,8150.0,8900.0,9350.0,11200.0,8900.0,8850.0,8700.0,9300.0,8150.0,7850.0,7300.0,7100.0,7550.0,8300.0,8650.0,8550.0,7850.0,9500.0,9350.0,9300.0,8750.0,8450.0,7950.0,7700.0,8150.0,8950.0,9450.0,10200.0,8600.0,9950.0,9750.0,9700.0,9200.0,8900.0,8350.0,8100.0,8550.0,9400.0,9800.0,10050.0,8950.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[8050.0,7700.0,7480.0,7720.0,7150.0,6250.0,5850.0,6300.0,7480.0,7900.0,7700.0,6550.0,8300.0,8050.0,7950.0,7900.0,7450.0,6550.0,6100.0,6500.0,7950.0,8200.0,8000.0,6850.0,8650.0,8350.0,8250.0,8300.0,7750.0,6800.0,6450.0,6750.0,8250.0,8500.0,8300.0,7100.0,9000.0,8700.0,8550.0,8650.0,8050.0,7050.0,6700.0,7000.0,8550.0,8800.0,8650.0,7400.0,9500.0,9200.0,9100.0,9300.0,8700.0,7600.0,7100.0,7500.0,9000.0,9400.0,9200.0,7900.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,9050.0,8450.0,7450.0,6950.0,7350.0,8900.0,9250.0,9050.0,7800.0,9200.0,8900.0,8750.0,8850.0,8250.0,7250.0,6850.0,7200.0,8700.0,9000.0,8800.0,7600.0,8850.0,8600.0,8450.0,8500.0,7950.0,7000.0,6600.0,6900.0,8350.0,8700.0,8500.0,7300.0,8300.0,8050.0,7900.0,8000.0,7450.0,6550.0,6200.0,6500.0,7800.0,8150.0,7950.0,6850.0,7850.0,7600.0,7500.0,7550.0,7050.0,6200.0,5850.0,6150.0,7400.0,7700.0,7550.0,6500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2280.0,2050.0,2190.0,1980.0,2100.0,1880.0,2040.0,2140.0,2430.0,2260.0,2120.0,1980.0,2350.0,2210.0,2300.0,2150.0,2000.0,1950.0,2080.0,2220.0,2510.0,2380.0,2240.0,2050.0,2450.0,2300.0,2410.0,2180.0,2220.0,2050.0,2160.0,2330.0,2600.0,2470.0,2320.0,2140.0,2560.0,2380.0,2490.0,2310.0,2350.0,2160.0,2280.0,2420.0,2690.0,2540.0,2400.0,2210.0,2620.0,2540.0,3400.0,3300.0,3050.0,2780.0,2760.0,2890.0,3120.0,2950.0,3100.0,2900.0,2950.0,2720.0,2860.0,2620.0,2700.0,2480.0,2560.0,2710.0,3050.0,2880.0,3020.0,2730.0,2980.0,2740.0,2810.0,2690.0,3120.0,2980.0,2720.0,2840.0,3080.0,2910.0,3650.0,3280.0,3120.0,2840.0,2920.0,2710.0,2680.0,2520.0,2620.0,2750.0,2980.0,2820.0,2890.0,2630.0,2890.0,2660.0,2740.0,2580.0,2610.0,2420.0,2510.0,2640.0,2870.0,2720.0,2780.0,2540.0,2760.0,2550.0,2630.0,2470.0,2500.0,2310.0,2400.0,2530.0,2750.0,2610.0,2670.0,2430.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[34830.0,35330.0,39230.0,37260.0,37400.0,34770.0,34100.0,33730.0,37610.0,39600.0,39120.0,33000.0,37740.0,36960.0,42500.0,40360.0,40520.0,37670.0,36940.0,36540.0,44820.0,42900.0,42380.0,35750.0,40640.0,39800.0,48060.0,43470.0,43630.0,40570.0,39780.0,39350.0,43880.0,46200.0,45640.0,38500.0,44510.0,43590.0,50130.0,47610.0,47790.0,44430.0,43570.0,43100.0,49020.0,50600.0,50460.0,42170.0,50320.0,51030.0,73670.0,64580.0,58340.0,51730.0,49250.0,48720.0,54320.0,57200.0,56510.0,47670.0,65990.0,58750.0,84460.0,77000.0,83740.0,65870.0,58730.0,58090.0,68010.0,68200.0,73790.0,56840.0,63860.0,71920.0,86310.0,80600.0,76800.0,68850.0,65640.0,64930.0,72400.0,79860.0,99040.0,72600.0,61730.0,59360.0,68270.0,63030.0,62060.0,56020.0,54940.0,54350.0,60590.0,63800.0,63030.0,53170.0,55880.0,53980.0,62940.0,56920.0,57140.0,53120.0,52100.0,51540.0,59180.0,60500.0,60330.0,50420.0,52250.0,51170.0,65910.0,61470.0,60590.0,52160.0,51150.0,50600.0,56410.0,59400.0,59240.0,49500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[24200.0,23300.0,24000.0,23100.0,23800.0,22300.0,21400.0,22200.0,24300.0,25200.0,23700.0,22300.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24700.0,23300.0,22300.0,23100.0,26500.0,27000.0,24800.0,23200.0,24400.0,23500.0,24200.0,23200.0,25500.0,22900.0,21900.0,22700.0,24900.0,25800.0,24100.0,22700.0,23200.0,22300.0,23000.0,22100.0,22700.0,21400.0,20500.0,21200.0,23400.0,24200.0,22700.0,21300.0,22900.0,22100.0,28500.0,31500.0,29700.0,27300.0,25700.0,27500.0,25400.0,26300.0,24600.0,23200.0,28000.0,26600.0,27400.0,26900.0,30800.0,28900.0,27400.0,29200.0,27500.0,28500.0,27000.0,25700.0,26300.0,25000.0,25800.0,25200.0,29000.0,27600.0,26200.0,27600.0,26200.0,27000.0,25700.0,24300.0,24900.0,23700.0,24800.0,24000.0,24600.0,23100.0,22000.0,22900.0,25300.0,26200.0,24600.0,23100.0,23900.0,22700.0,23600.0,23200.0,23900.0,22400.0,21300.0,22200.0,24500.0,25300.0,23800.0,22300.0,24100.0,22900.0,23700.0,23400.0,24800.0,23500.0,22400.0,23200.0,24500.0,25100.0,23800.0,22400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3900.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,4000.0,4300.0,4300.0,3600.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4100.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,4100.0,4400.0,4400.0,3700.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,4100.0,4400.0,4400.0,3700.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,3600.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,4000.0,4300.0,4200.0,3600.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3900.0,4200.0,4200.0,3500.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3800.0,4100.0,4100.0,3400.0,3900.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,4000.0,4300.0,4300.0,3600.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,4000.0,4300.0,4200.0,3500.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3800.0,4100.0,4000.0,3400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[80000.0,66000.0,71000.0,63000.0,61000.0,55000.0,53000.0,62000.0,74000.0,65000.0,69000.0,49000.0,71000.0,61000.0,65000.0,58000.0,54000.0,50000.0,48000.0,60000.0,72000.0,61000.0,57000.0,45000.0,68000.0,58000.0,61000.0,55000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,57000.0,66000.0,60000.0,57000.0,43000.0,67000.0,58000.0,60000.0,54000.0,52000.0,47000.0,45000.0,56000.0,66000.0,58000.0,55000.0,42000.0,76000.0,65000.0,84000.0,73000.0,59000.0,53000.0,50000.0,62000.0,81000.0,65000.0,71000.0,48000.0,96000.0,86000.0,118000.0,88000.0,92000.0,76000.0,68000.0,78000.0,93000.0,116000.0,134000.0,76000.0,90000.0,74000.0,85000.0,90000.0,79000.0,67000.0,57000.0,70000.0,88000.0,89000.0,91000.0,58000.0,89000.0,73000.0,77000.0,63000.0,65000.0,53000.0,53000.0,67000.0,84000.0,71000.0,74000.0,61000.0,69000.0,65000.0,65000.0,59000.0,53000.0,54000.0,50000.0,62000.0,77000.0,62000.0,59000.0,48000.0,68000.0,57000.0,59000.0,54000.0,51000.0,46000.0,44000.0,54000.0,66000.0,57000.0,55000.0,43000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[930.0,850.0,910.0,880.0,920.0,870.0,840.0,810.0,900.0,960.0,890.0,850.0,880.0,820.0,870.0,840.0,910.0,860.0,830.0,790.0,850.0,900.0,870.0,820.0,850.0,790.0,840.0,820.0,860.0,810.0,780.0,760.0,830.0,880.0,840.0,800.0,810.0,760.0,800.0,780.0,830.0,790.0,750.0,730.0,800.0,850.0,810.0,770.0,900.0,850.0,940.0,1050.0,980.0,920.0,880.0,850.0,900.0,960.0,930.0,890.0,920.0,860.0,900.0,870.0,910.0,850.0,820.0,790.0,860.0,910.0,880.0,830.0,840.0,790.0,830.0,800.0,850.0,810.0,770.0,750.0,820.0,860.0,830.0,780.0,800.0,750.0,790.0,770.0,810.0,770.0,740.0,720.0,780.0,830.0,790.0,750.0,790.0,740.0,800.0,780.0,840.0,790.0,750.0,730.0,800.0,850.0,810.0,760.0,780.0,730.0,770.0,750.0,800.0,760.0,720.0,700.0,770.0,820.0,780.0,740.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4330.0,4490.0,4620.0,4410.0,4280.0,3900.0,3610.0,3530.0,4200.0,4410.0,4280.0,3700.0,4430.0,4600.0,4730.0,4520.0,4390.0,4000.0,3700.0,3610.0,4300.0,4520.0,4600.0,5600.0,4220.0,4390.0,4510.0,4300.0,4180.0,3810.0,3530.0,3440.0,4100.0,4300.0,4180.0,3600.0,3910.0,4070.0,4180.0,3990.0,3880.0,3530.0,3270.0,3190.0,3800.0,3990.0,3880.0,3340.0,4020.0,4170.0,4600.0,4300.0,3980.0,3630.0,3350.0,3280.0,3900.0,4100.0,3980.0,3430.0,4120.0,4280.0,4400.0,4500.0,4080.0,3720.0,3440.0,3360.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,3520.0,3810.0,3960.0,4070.0,3890.0,3770.0,3440.0,3180.0,3110.0,3700.0,3880.0,3770.0,3260.0,3500.0,3640.0,3740.0,3570.0,3470.0,3160.0,2920.0,2860.0,3400.0,3570.0,3470.0,2990.0,3400.0,3530.0,3630.0,3470.0,3370.0,3070.0,2840.0,2770.0,3300.0,3470.0,3370.0,2900.0,3300.0,3420.0,3520.0,3360.0,3260.0,2980.0,2750.0,2690.0,3200.0,3360.0,3260.0,2820.0]}},{"title":"Mockingbird","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Mockingbird\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[24391,38732,33167,36865,44256,33639,25844,20271,20863,20082,18498,18043,22284,21092,26866,31802,37430,30177,25813,18348,17710,19707,18801,16950,19747,18641,23569,26695,33385,27875,22423,16918,16921,16986,14830,14833,17381,16419,20681,23482,28176,23792,18684,13650,13868,14037,11850,11490,13826,14233,20180,31753,37919,30453,22301,16514,14474,15119,14306,12826,16568,17907,22035,25856,33321,26254,19492,13058,13297,14124,11810,13920,15310,15736,19171,23255,28387,24735,19629,15344,15426,31205,33562,26818,30828,30712,43753,49723,62408,55929,43112,29583,26083,24133,28713,27877,31275,28704,34469,40120,44340,34436,26121,18575,16547,23203,17157,17178,21815,20529,32029,28130,35284,22306,19373,15581,13354,13678,12993,11441],"flat_reference_value":16939.630739487566,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[10500.0,10200.0,12300.0,15800.0,19200.0,17300.0,14800.0,13000.0,12000.0,11800.0,10500.0,9900.0,10600.0,10200.0,13000.0,16400.0,20100.0,18000.0,15400.0,13600.0,12500.0,12300.0,11000.0,10400.0,11200.0,10600.0,13200.0,17100.0,21000.0,18700.0,16000.0,14100.0,13000.0,12700.0,11300.0,10700.0,11500.0,10900.0,13600.0,17600.0,21600.0,19200.0,16400.0,14400.0,13300.0,13000.0,11600.0,11000.0,11900.0,11400.0,15100.0,21300.0,26200.0,22500.0,18700.0,16000.0,14500.0,13900.0,12400.0,11700.0,12600.0,11900.0,15300.0,19800.0,24200.0,21300.0,17900.0,15600.0,14400.0,14000.0,12500.0,11900.0,12900.0,12200.0,15500.0,20100.0,24500.0,21500.0,18200.0,15800.0,14600.0,14300.0,12900.0,12600.0,13600.0,12900.0,16200.0,20700.0,25200.0,22100.0,18700.0,16400.0,15100.0,14700.0,13200.0,12500.0,13400.0,12800.0,16200.0,21000.0,25800.0,22500.0,19000.0,16600.0,15300.0,14900.0,13400.0,12700.0,13700.0,13000.0,16500.0,21400.0,26200.0,22900.0,19300.0,16900.0,15600.0,15100.0,13600.0,12900.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[36200.0,35800.0,46500.0,51200.0,61800.0,58400.0,52100.0,43900.0,41200.0,40500.0,36800.0,33900.0,36500.0,35900.0,43200.0,50800.0,60400.0,57900.0,51600.0,43500.0,40800.0,40100.0,36400.0,33400.0,35800.0,35100.0,42900.0,50200.0,61200.0,58100.0,51900.0,43200.0,40400.0,39800.0,36100.0,33200.0,36100.0,35400.0,43600.0,51500.0,62500.0,59200.0,52800.0,44100.0,41100.0,40600.0,36900.0,34100.0,37200.0,36800.0,47500.0,66400.0,81200.0,74800.0,63500.0,51800.0,46200.0,44500.0,40200.0,37800.0,40100.0,39400.0,47200.0,55800.0,66900.0,62400.0,55100.0,46300.0,42500.0,41400.0,38900.0,53600.0,40800.0,37200.0,44500.0,52100.0,62800.0,58900.0,52400.0,44200.0,40600.0,40200.0,38400.0,36900.0,38500.0,36400.0,43100.0,50200.0,59800.0,56100.0,50300.0,42100.0,38900.0,38200.0,34800.0,32400.0,34600.0,33900.0,40800.0,47600.0,56900.0,53400.0,47800.0,39900.0,36800.0,36100.0,32900.0,30600.0,32800.0,31900.0,38600.0,45200.0,54100.0,50800.0,45400.0,38100.0,35100.0,34400.0,31200.0,29100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[28500.0,29200.0,34100.0,37800.0,39200.0,35400.0,31200.0,27600.0,29400.0,30800.0,29100.0,26400.0,28000.0,29500.0,33800.0,38200.0,40100.0,34500.0,30200.0,26800.0,28900.0,31400.0,28500.0,25600.0,27500.0,28200.0,33000.0,36900.0,38500.0,33100.0,29400.0,26100.0,28200.0,30500.0,28100.0,24900.0,26800.0,27400.0,32500.0,36200.0,38000.0,32800.0,28500.0,25400.0,27600.0,29800.0,27200.0,24100.0,25900.0,26800.0,33500.0,44200.0,48600.0,42100.0,35400.0,30200.0,31500.0,32400.0,28800.0,26200.0,28200.0,29100.0,35400.0,41200.0,43500.0,36800.0,32100.0,28500.0,30200.0,31800.0,32500.0,48200.0,38500.0,31200.0,36500.0,42000.0,44200.0,37500.0,33100.0,30500.0,34200.0,38500.0,44100.0,48500.0,52400.0,54200.0,58100.0,56200.0,53500.0,46200.0,41500.0,38200.0,37100.0,36500.0,34200.0,32100.0,32500.0,33200.0,38400.0,42500.0,44100.0,37200.0,32800.0,29100.0,30800.0,32200.0,29500.0,27400.0,28500.0,29200.0,34800.0,39200.0,41000.0,35100.0,30900.0,27500.0,29100.0,30800.0,28200.0,26000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[10500.0,10800.0,13200.0,16500.0,18800.0,17200.0,14300.0,12600.0,11800.0,11200.0,10400.0,9600.0,10300.0,10600.0,13000.0,16200.0,18500.0,16900.0,14000.0,12400.0,11500.0,11000.0,10200.0,9400.0,10100.0,10300.0,12700.0,15900.0,18100.0,16500.0,13700.0,12100.0,11200.0,10700.0,9900.0,9200.0,9800.0,10100.0,12400.0,15500.0,17700.0,16100.0,13400.0,11800.0,10900.0,10400.0,9700.0,9000.0,9700.0,10000.0,13800.0,19500.0,21500.0,18300.0,14600.0,12500.0,11300.0,10700.0,9900.0,9300.0,9800.0,9900.0,12300.0,15600.0,17600.0,15800.0,13000.0,11400.0,10500.0,10000.0,9300.0,8700.0,9200.0,9300.0,11500.0,14500.0,16300.0,14700.0,12200.0,10700.0,9900.0,9500.0,8900.0,8300.0,8800.0,9000.0,11200.0,14100.0,15900.0,14400.0,12000.0,10600.0,9900.0,9600.0,9800.0,8900.0,9300.0,9200.0,11300.0,14000.0,15600.0,14000.0,11600.0,10200.0,9400.0,9000.0,8500.0,7900.0,8300.0,8400.0,10300.0,12900.0,14400.0,13000.0,10800.0,9500.0,8800.0,8400.0,7900.0,7400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[25000.0,34000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,23000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,21000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,19500.0,19000.0,21000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,19500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,18500.0,18000.0,21000.0,26000.0,27000.0,24000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,18500.0,18000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,18500.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17000.0,16500.0,18500.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18500.0,20500.0,20500.0,21000.0,21500.0,21500.0,19500.0,17500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,16500.0,16000.0,17500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18000.0,16500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,15500.0,15000.0,16500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[41000.0,37000.0,48000.0,67000.0,86000.0,73000.0,61000.0,50000.0,44000.0,42000.0,36000.0,33000.0,40000.0,36000.0,49000.0,66000.0,83000.0,74000.0,58000.0,47000.0,43000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,39000.0,37000.0,45000.0,65000.0,80000.0,73000.0,59000.0,49000.0,42000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,41000.0,35000.0,47000.0,62000.0,81000.0,70000.0,56000.0,46000.0,44000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,43000.0,39000.0,58000.0,105000.0,124000.0,98000.0,69000.0,51000.0,46000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,41000.0,37000.0,46000.0,67000.0,85000.0,73000.0,60000.0,48000.0,42000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,38000.0,34000.0,46000.0,63000.0,79000.0,71000.0,55000.0,47000.0,41000.0,37000.0,34000.0,31000.0,37000.0,36000.0,43000.0,62000.0,78000.0,68000.0,54000.0,44000.0,40000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32000.0,39000.0,33000.0,45000.0,59000.0,77000.0,67000.0,53000.0,46000.0,42000.0,36000.0,32000.0,30000.0,36000.0,35000.0,42000.0,60000.0,74000.0,66000.0,55000.0,43000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,31000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[36214.0,53427.0,41982.0,47350.0,49210.0,39145.0,31872.0,30218.0,35740.0,38105.0,33980.0,29455.0,34890.0,36520.0,40560.0,45830.0,47640.0,38210.0,31140.0,29580.0,35270.0,36980.0,32940.0,28860.0,33820.0,35410.0,39480.0,44720.0,46150.0,37120.0,30250.0,28640.0,34310.0,36020.0,32680.0,33145.0,32840.0,34420.0,38260.0,43210.0,44980.0,35970.0,29320.0,27890.0,33250.0,34910.0,31080.0,27230.0,33280.0,34960.0,43820.0,50840.0,51530.0,38620.0,30480.0,28730.0,33890.0,35420.0,32110.0,27980.0,32450.0,33870.0,37120.0,41940.0,43580.0,34960.0,28420.0,27050.0,32380.0,33840.0,30120.0,26480.0,30860.0,32310.0,35940.0,40620.0,42170.0,33850.0,27560.0,26180.0,31240.0,32810.0,29230.0,25690.0,29840.0,31270.0,34780.0,39320.0,40860.0,32740.0,26720.0,25380.0,30250.0,31890.0,30720.0,33840.0,37820.0,38210.0,37540.0,39870.0,38620.0,31120.0,25410.0,24080.0,28760.0,30140.0,26890.0,23560.0,27320.0,28640.0,31890.0,36020.0,37480.0,30010.0,24520.0,23210.0,27780.0,29120.0,25940.0,22780.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[74200.0,104500.0,97500.0,99000.0,98500.0,89000.0,81000.0,77000.0,82500.0,88500.0,76500.0,69500.0,70500.0,73500.0,82500.0,90000.0,91500.0,84500.0,76000.0,72500.0,77500.0,83000.0,71500.0,65500.0,66500.0,70000.0,78000.0,85500.0,87000.0,80500.0,72000.0,68500.0,73500.0,79000.0,67000.0,68000.0,72000.0,72500.0,79500.0,91000.0,94500.0,84000.0,74500.0,70500.0,75500.0,81000.0,69500.0,63500.0,75500.0,80500.0,99000.0,110000.0,109500.0,95000.0,84000.0,77000.0,84500.0,88500.0,77500.0,70000.0,74500.0,77500.0,86500.0,94000.0,97500.0,88000.0,81000.0,75000.0,82500.0,86500.0,76000.0,68500.0,80500.0,84000.0,93500.0,102000.0,105500.0,96500.0,87000.0,82500.0,89500.0,94000.0,83500.0,78500.0,88000.0,92500.0,101500.0,112000.0,114000.0,105000.0,95500.0,89000.0,97500.0,105000.0,94500.0,83000.0,94500.0,100500.0,110000.0,121000.0,124500.0,128000.0,121000.0,104000.0,107500.0,111500.0,97000.0,87500.0,101000.0,106000.0,118000.0,129000.0,132500.0,121000.0,110000.0,102500.0,112500.0,119000.0,103500.0,93000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[10900.0,18500.0,12100.0,12650.0,12900.0,12100.0,10900.0,10600.0,12100.0,12400.0,11700.0,10900.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11600.0,11800.0,11000.0,10000.0,9700.0,11000.0,11300.0,10700.0,10000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11200.0,10500.0,9500.0,9200.0,10500.0,10800.0,10200.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10600.0,10000.0,9000.0,8700.0,10000.0,10300.0,9700.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,12500.0,13000.0,11500.0,10000.0,9500.0,10500.0,10800.0,10200.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10600.0,10000.0,9000.0,8700.0,10000.0,10300.0,9700.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11200.0,10500.0,9500.0,9200.0,10500.0,10800.0,10200.0,9500.0,10500.0,11000.0,13000.0,14500.0,15000.0,13500.0,11500.0,10500.0,11500.0,11800.0,11200.0,10500.0,9500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11200.0,10500.0,9500.0,9200.0,10500.0,10800.0,10200.0,9500.0,8500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9900.0,10000.0,9500.0,8500.0,8300.0,9500.0,9700.0,9200.0,8500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3300.0,8200.0,3150.0,3200.0,3000.0,2650.0,4100.0,3050.0,3800.0,3600.0,3100.0,2850.0,3050.0,3250.0,2950.0,3000.0,2800.0,2500.0,2500.0,2850.0,3550.0,3350.0,2900.0,2650.0,2950.0,3150.0,2850.0,2900.0,2700.0,2400.0,2450.0,2750.0,3400.0,3250.0,3600.0,5200.0,2800.0,2950.0,2700.0,2750.0,2550.0,2300.0,2300.0,2600.0,3250.0,3050.0,2650.0,2450.0,2900.0,3100.0,3800.0,3950.0,3450.0,2950.0,5000.0,3600.0,3950.0,3200.0,2750.0,2550.0,2700.0,2850.0,2600.0,2600.0,2450.0,2200.0,2200.0,2500.0,3100.0,2950.0,2550.0,2350.0,2600.0,2750.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2100.0,2150.0,2400.0,3000.0,4300.0,3400.0,2950.0,2550.0,4600.0,4700.0,2450.0,2350.0,2050.0,2100.0,2350.0,4100.0,2800.0,2400.0,2200.0,2450.0,2550.0,2350.0,2350.0,2250.0,3500.0,3900.0,2250.0,2800.0,2650.0,2300.0,2100.0,2300.0,3900.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,1850.0,2950.0,2100.0,2600.0,2500.0,2150.0,2000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[9900.0,27450.0,14900.0,9450.0,8550.0,5850.0,4950.0,8550.0,13500.0,11700.0,10800.0,9450.0,10780.0,10290.0,10780.0,10290.0,9310.0,6370.0,5390.0,9310.0,14700.0,12740.0,11760.0,10290.0,11880.0,11340.0,11880.0,11340.0,10260.0,7020.0,5940.0,10260.0,16200.0,14040.0,18960.0,19340.0,12760.0,12180.0,12760.0,12180.0,11020.0,7540.0,6380.0,11020.0,17400.0,15080.0,13920.0,12180.0,13420.0,12810.0,13420.0,13810.0,11590.0,7930.0,6710.0,11590.0,18300.0,15860.0,14640.0,12810.0,14080.0,13440.0,14080.0,13440.0,12160.0,8320.0,7040.0,12160.0,19200.0,16640.0,15360.0,13440.0,13640.0,13020.0,13640.0,13020.0,11780.0,8060.0,6820.0,11780.0,18600.0,16120.0,14880.0,13020.0,13200.0,12600.0,13200.0,12600.0,11400.0,7800.0,6600.0,11400.0,18000.0,17100.0,23400.0,16600.0,12320.0,11760.0,12320.0,11760.0,10640.0,7280.0,6160.0,10640.0,16800.0,14560.0,13440.0,11760.0,11440.0,10920.0,16440.0,10920.0,9880.0,6760.0,5720.0,9880.0,15600.0,13520.0,12480.0,10920.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[7600.0,8600.0,8200.0,8800.0,9600.0,9600.0,10000.0,9700.0,8800.0,8600.0,7900.0,7800.0,7500.0,7400.0,8100.0,8500.0,9000.0,9300.0,9500.0,9400.0,8700.0,8500.0,8000.0,8200.0,7400.0,7200.0,7900.0,8300.0,8700.0,9000.0,9100.0,9000.0,8400.0,8200.0,7600.0,7700.0,7300.0,7100.0,7700.0,8200.0,8500.0,8800.0,8900.0,8700.0,8200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7400.0,7300.0,6800.0,7400.0,7800.0,8300.0,9300.0,8900.0,8600.0,8100.0,7700.0,7400.0,7300.0,7100.0,6900.0,7300.0,7800.0,8100.0,8400.0,8500.0,8400.0,7900.0,7600.0,7200.0,7100.0,6900.0,6700.0,7200.0,7600.0,7900.0,8200.0,8300.0,8100.0,7700.0,7400.0,7000.0,6900.0,6700.0,6500.0,7000.0,7400.0,7700.0,8000.0,8100.0,8000.0,7500.0,7300.0,6900.0,6800.0,6700.0,6500.0,6900.0,7500.0,8100.0,8700.0,8600.0,8400.0,8000.0,7700.0,7300.0,7200.0,6800.0,6600.0,7000.0,7500.0,7900.0,8200.0,8300.0,8100.0,7700.0,7500.0,7100.0,7000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4200.0,6200.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,3300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3200.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,3300.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4200.0,4000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3000.0,3800.0,3900.0,4200.0,4300.0,3800.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3000.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,2900.0,2800.0,3100.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,2900.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3600.0,2800.0,2700.0,3000.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,2800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2900.0,3500.0,3500.0,3400.0,2700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,2600.0,2500.0,2800.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,2600.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2700.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,2500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[21500.0,48900.0,33500.0,27200.0,24800.0,24100.0,23300.0,25000.0,26700.0,26100.0,26800.0,23400.0,21400.0,22000.0,24500.0,25200.0,24600.0,24000.0,23100.0,24800.0,25900.0,25300.0,24000.0,22700.0,23300.0,23800.0,26500.0,27400.0,26900.0,25800.0,25100.0,26700.0,28300.0,27600.0,27100.0,31900.0,30100.0,28900.0,28600.0,29800.0,28300.0,27600.0,26700.0,28100.0,29900.0,29200.0,28000.0,26500.0,27800.0,28900.0,36400.0,41800.0,39500.0,36800.0,35700.0,37500.0,41200.0,42000.0,35300.0,32400.0,27900.0,28500.0,33100.0,35200.0,34000.0,32400.0,31200.0,33000.0,35300.0,35000.0,32600.0,30100.0,28900.0,29600.0,31700.0,33100.0,32000.0,30600.0,30100.0,31400.0,33800.0,32900.0,31000.0,29700.0,29100.0,30400.0,32600.0,34000.0,33100.0,31600.0,30800.0,32000.0,34300.0,33500.0,31800.0,30300.0,30200.0,31000.0,33500.0,34800.0,33900.0,32400.0,31700.0,32800.0,35100.0,34400.0,32500.0,30800.0,30500.0,31200.0,33600.0,34900.0,33700.0,32200.0,31100.0,32300.0,34600.0,33900.0,32100.0,30400.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[10500.0,9800.0,11900.0,13200.0,12800.0,11600.0,11000.0,10400.0,9900.0,10200.0,9300.0,9600.0,10000.0,9400.0,11500.0,12600.0,12100.0,11100.0,10500.0,9900.0,9500.0,9700.0,9000.0,9300.0,9600.0,9000.0,11000.0,12100.0,11700.0,10700.0,10100.0,9500.0,9200.0,9300.0,8700.0,9000.0,9200.0,8700.0,10600.0,11600.0,11300.0,10300.0,9700.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,8400.0,8700.0,10000.0,9500.0,11800.0,13000.0,12600.0,11400.0,10800.0,10300.0,9700.0,9900.0,9300.0,9600.0,10100.0,9500.0,11600.0,12700.0,12200.0,11200.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9700.0,9000.0,9300.0,9800.0,9200.0,11200.0,12300.0,11800.0,10800.0,10200.0,9700.0,9200.0,9400.0,8800.0,9100.0,9500.0,8900.0,10800.0,11900.0,11400.0,10400.0,9800.0,9300.0,8900.0,9100.0,8500.0,8800.0,9300.0,8700.0,10500.0,11600.0,11100.0,10200.0,9600.0,9100.0,8700.0,8900.0,8300.0,8600.0,9100.0,8500.0,10300.0,11400.0,10900.0,10000.0,9400.0,8900.0,8500.0,8700.0,8100.0,8400.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4500.0,14000.0,6800.0,5200.0,5200.0,4500.0,4250.0,5200.0,5500.0,5500.0,5000.0,4250.0,4320.0,4560.0,5040.0,5040.0,5040.0,4320.0,4080.0,5040.0,5280.0,5280.0,4800.0,4080.0,4050.0,4275.0,4725.0,4725.0,4725.0,4050.0,3825.0,4725.0,4950.0,4950.0,4500.0,3825.0,3870.0,4085.0,4515.0,4515.0,4515.0,3870.0,3655.0,4515.0,4730.0,4730.0,4300.0,3655.0,4140.0,4370.0,4830.0,4830.0,5200.0,5380.0,3910.0,4830.0,5060.0,5060.0,4600.0,3910.0,3870.0,4085.0,4515.0,4515.0,4515.0,3870.0,3655.0,4515.0,4730.0,4730.0,4300.0,3655.0,3510.0,3705.0,4095.0,4095.0,4095.0,3510.0,3315.0,4095.0,4290.0,4290.0,3900.0,3315.0,3240.0,3420.0,3780.0,3780.0,3780.0,3240.0,3060.0,3780.0,3960.0,3960.0,3600.0,3060.0,2970.0,3135.0,3465.0,3465.0,3465.0,2970.0,2805.0,3465.0,3630.0,3630.0,3300.0,2805.0,2610.0,2755.0,3045.0,3045.0,3045.0,2610.0,2465.0,3045.0,3190.0,3190.0,2900.0,2465.0]}},{"title":"Georgian language","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Georgian language\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[26194,24847,27324,31330,29201,25461,25679,26603,26092,28693,29577,30758,34240,29703,31370,30204,33177,36958,28804,28642,29291,30483,30425,30205,32306,30869,33239,31231,37876,27979,30504,29274,28483,30582,29332,27990,32634,27006,32081,29881,30632,30956,31619,31943,33116,32243,29799,28142,31541,27722,28670,32676,31338,27832,40978,31168,28925,36440,37329,30796,31018,28792,35071,35517,37740,31599,36423,37938,32401,33341,31030,30706,35929,49716,60465,40644,36039,33988,33638,34869,40574,40350,38362,38330,39261,38758,53021,43017,40011,63321,47421,40621,42783,41279,41400,40401,43512,52677,45565,44354,48957,72754,43038,39424,45838,49019,42243,47520,41491,33386,37121,33748,38570,42907,37172,32764,33056,34066,32012,30481],"flat_reference_value":16901.03349068925,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[32900.0,31900.0,34300.0,32500.0,33400.0,30700.0,31500.0,32300.0,33200.0,35700.0,34200.0,32200.0,34800.0,33200.0,36500.0,34200.0,35400.0,32700.0,33700.0,34600.0,34900.0,37400.0,35800.0,33600.0,36800.0,34800.0,37900.0,36100.0,37200.0,34200.0,35400.0,36500.0,36900.0,39500.0,37600.0,35100.0,38100.0,36100.0,39100.0,37400.0,38200.0,36800.0,37300.0,37900.0,38200.0,40700.0,38900.0,36500.0,39700.0,37600.0,39100.0,40300.0,41000.0,37700.0,38900.0,39600.0,40200.0,42800.0,41000.0,38200.0,41600.0,39400.0,42700.0,40600.0,41400.0,38300.0,39400.0,40500.0,41100.0,43500.0,41700.0,38900.0,42000.0,40700.0,48700.0,45200.0,44500.0,41500.0,42700.0,43500.0,44200.0,46600.0,44100.0,41200.0,44500.0,41600.0,48200.0,43000.0,43700.0,40600.0,41600.0,42500.0,43100.0,45500.0,43500.0,40700.0,44000.0,41400.0,46200.0,45000.0,46300.0,51000.0,49100.0,43500.0,43300.0,46300.0,46700.0,47200.0,45600.0,42100.0,45400.0,43500.0,44200.0,40900.0,41900.0,42700.0,43200.0,45600.0,43600.0,40800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[33400.0,31800.0,33900.0,32700.0,33100.0,30800.0,31200.0,31900.0,32800.0,35100.0,34200.0,32100.0,34600.0,32200.0,35300.0,33800.0,34400.0,31900.0,32500.0,33100.0,34000.0,36400.0,35200.0,33000.0,35800.0,33100.0,36200.0,34900.0,35500.0,32800.0,33600.0,34700.0,35100.0,37300.0,36800.0,34500.0,37100.0,34200.0,37500.0,35900.0,36400.0,38900.0,36700.0,35800.0,36200.0,38400.0,37200.0,35100.0,38200.0,35900.0,37800.0,41200.0,40600.0,37400.0,36900.0,37500.0,38300.0,40900.0,39800.0,37600.0,40300.0,37100.0,39500.0,38200.0,38700.0,35900.0,36400.0,36800.0,37200.0,39100.0,38000.0,35800.0,38400.0,43600.0,51200.0,42500.0,39800.0,37200.0,37600.0,38900.0,45800.0,44100.0,39200.0,36900.0,38700.0,35400.0,44300.0,37100.0,36200.0,33800.0,34200.0,34600.0,34900.0,36300.0,35100.0,33400.0,35200.0,32900.0,36800.0,39400.0,43800.0,59400.0,46200.0,34800.0,34100.0,41200.0,38900.0,42300.0,36400.0,31800.0,33200.0,31900.0,32100.0,29800.0,30200.0,30500.0,31100.0,32900.0,31600.0,29700.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[27840.0,26910.0,28750.0,27430.0,26820.0,23910.0,23450.0,24120.0,27280.0,30540.0,29810.0,25620.0,28930.0,27120.0,30210.0,28340.0,27480.0,24890.0,25110.0,25930.0,28410.0,31870.0,31200.0,26840.0,29650.0,27890.0,31050.0,29120.0,31840.0,25730.0,26310.0,26890.0,29420.0,36780.0,32910.0,27650.0,30820.0,28650.0,31940.0,29810.0,30720.0,33950.0,32680.0,27940.0,30120.0,33410.0,31890.0,27150.0,29980.0,28720.0,35840.0,42110.0,37920.0,31240.0,30150.0,29870.0,32640.0,34180.0,33290.0,28670.0,31750.0,29130.0,31420.0,29380.0,28190.0,25340.0,25890.0,26710.0,28950.0,31220.0,30450.0,26380.0,28840.0,33750.0,44120.0,37860.0,33150.0,28940.0,28210.0,29430.0,36890.0,35120.0,31280.0,27450.0,30120.0,28430.0,35890.0,30420.0,29180.0,26340.0,26850.0,27210.0,29340.0,30870.0,30560.0,27190.0,29450.0,28120.0,34290.0,32150.0,35480.0,51840.0,41250.0,29310.0,29840.0,37920.0,33450.0,30820.0,29750.0,28310.0,30640.0,29180.0,28420.0,25890.0,25340.0,26110.0,28250.0,30480.0,29630.0,26520.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[51000.0,49000.0,52500.0,51000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48500.0,52500.0,56000.0,49000.0,48000.0,46000.0,49500.0,48000.0,47000.0,43000.0,42500.0,43000.0,45500.0,49000.0,49500.0,46000.0,45000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,40500.0,39500.0,40500.0,42500.0,46000.0,46500.0,43000.0,43000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38500.0,38500.0,40500.0,44000.0,44500.0,41000.0,42000.0,40500.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40500.0,43000.0,43500.0,40000.0,39500.0,37500.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34500.0,36500.0,39500.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32500.0,33000.0,35000.0,37500.0,38000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33500.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,31500.0,31000.0,31000.0,33000.0,35500.0,36000.0,33500.0,33500.0,32000.0,34500.0,35000.0,39000.0,31500.0,30000.0,30500.0,32000.0,36500.0,38000.0,40000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32500.0,31000.0,30500.0,28000.0,27500.0,27500.0,29000.0,31000.0,31500.0,29000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,55000.0,55000.0,51000.0,51000.0,52000.0,52000.0,54000.0,54000.0,51000.0,56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,52000.0,53000.0,49000.0,49000.0,50000.0,49000.0,52000.0,52000.0,49000.0,54000.0,50000.0,53000.0,51000.0,51000.0,48000.0,49000.0,49000.0,48000.0,51000.0,50000.0,47000.0,52000.0,48000.0,51000.0,49000.0,49000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,46000.0,48000.0,48000.0,46000.0,51000.0,48000.0,51000.0,56000.0,56000.0,51000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,49000.0,53000.0,49000.0,51000.0,49000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,47000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,47000.0,54000.0,49000.0,48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,45000.0,51000.0,46000.0,46000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,46000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,60000.0,50000.0,44000.0,42000.0,45000.0,45000.0,46000.0,45000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[13200.0,12100.0,12600.0,10900.0,10900.0,9800.0,9200.0,9200.0,12600.0,13200.0,12100.0,10400.0,13800.0,12600.0,13200.0,11400.0,11400.0,10200.0,9600.0,9600.0,13200.0,13800.0,12600.0,10800.0,14400.0,13100.0,13800.0,11900.0,11900.0,10600.0,10000.0,10000.0,13800.0,14400.0,13100.0,11300.0,15000.0,13700.0,14300.0,12400.0,12400.0,15500.0,10400.0,10400.0,14300.0,15000.0,13700.0,11700.0,15500.0,14200.0,17100.0,12800.0,12800.0,11500.0,10800.0,10800.0,14900.0,15500.0,14200.0,12200.0,16700.0,15200.0,16000.0,13800.0,13800.0,12300.0,11600.0,11600.0,16000.0,16700.0,15200.0,13100.0,17300.0,15800.0,26400.0,18500.0,16400.0,12800.0,12000.0,12000.0,16500.0,17300.0,15800.0,13500.0,17300.0,15800.0,16500.0,14300.0,14300.0,12800.0,12000.0,12000.0,16500.0,17300.0,15800.0,16900.0,16700.0,15200.0,16000.0,14500.0,14500.0,12300.0,11600.0,11600.0,16000.0,25000.0,30500.0,22200.0,26900.0,21800.0,21500.0,16100.0,14200.0,12200.0,10400.0,10400.0,15000.0,17900.0,17100.0,12300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[17970.0,17525.0,17720.0,16930.0,17100.0,14920.0,13890.0,14610.0,16420.0,17940.0,17480.0,21430.0,17350.0,16690.0,17410.0,16240.0,16720.0,14280.0,13450.0,14190.0,15930.0,17390.0,16850.0,14560.0,16820.0,16110.0,16890.0,15700.0,16240.0,13820.0,13010.0,13750.0,15420.0,16860.0,16340.0,14100.0,16150.0,15680.0,16320.0,15190.0,15760.0,16480.0,14310.0,13140.0,14960.0,16280.0,15810.0,13670.0,16680.0,16390.0,19820.0,19940.0,18350.0,14980.0,13920.0,13710.0,15480.0,16810.0,16330.0,14150.0,16020.0,15410.0,16050.0,14980.0,15540.0,13210.0,12430.0,13120.0,14750.0,16080.0,15620.0,13480.0,16140.0,17830.0,20310.0,16250.0,16380.0,13420.0,12610.0,13280.0,14920.0,16270.0,15840.0,13690.0,15380.0,14820.0,15410.0,14360.0,14970.0,12650.0,11980.0,12560.0,14140.0,15420.0,14980.0,12910.0,14620.0,14090.0,14650.0,15840.0,16890.0,12080.0,11360.0,11940.0,13460.0,16630.0,14720.0,13980.0,13010.0,12520.0,13040.0,12130.0,12850.0,10720.0,10110.0,10630.0,11940.0,13020.0,12650.0,10920.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[31300.0,33300.0,35700.0,36700.0,34700.0,31300.0,29900.0,30600.0,36700.0,37400.0,35700.0,32300.0,32700.0,34800.0,37300.0,38300.0,36200.0,32700.0,31200.0,32000.0,38300.0,39000.0,37300.0,33700.0,34000.0,36300.0,38900.0,40000.0,37700.0,34000.0,32600.0,33300.0,40000.0,40700.0,39500.0,35200.0,35400.0,37700.0,40400.0,41600.0,39300.0,37200.0,33900.0,34700.0,41600.0,42400.0,40400.0,36600.0,38200.0,40700.0,47100.0,50200.0,44400.0,38200.0,36500.0,37400.0,44800.0,46800.0,43600.0,39400.0,37700.0,40200.0,43100.0,44300.0,41800.0,37700.0,36100.0,36900.0,44300.0,45100.0,43100.0,39000.0,40000.0,42600.0,58500.0,54000.0,46600.0,40000.0,38300.0,39200.0,52600.0,51700.0,45700.0,41300.0,41400.0,44100.0,54000.0,49000.0,46000.0,41400.0,39600.0,40500.0,48600.0,49500.0,47300.0,45500.0,43200.0,46100.0,49400.0,58400.0,53700.0,44500.0,41400.0,42300.0,50800.0,56900.0,56800.0,60000.0,47000.0,48500.0,48200.0,49100.0,46400.0,41900.0,40000.0,41000.0,49100.0,50100.0,47800.0,43200.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[13200.0,12800.0,13500.0,12900.0,12300.0,11000.0,10700.0,11100.0,12500.0,13000.0,13200.0,12400.0,14000.0,13700.0,14300.0,13800.0,13200.0,11800.0,11500.0,11900.0,13400.0,14000.0,14200.0,13300.0,14800.0,14500.0,15200.0,14700.0,14000.0,12600.0,12300.0,12700.0,14200.0,14800.0,15000.0,14100.0,15600.0,15300.0,16000.0,15500.0,14800.0,13300.0,13000.0,13400.0,15000.0,15600.0,15800.0,14900.0,16400.0,16100.0,17200.0,16500.0,15800.0,14200.0,13900.0,14300.0,16000.0,16600.0,16800.0,15900.0,17400.0,17100.0,17800.0,17200.0,16500.0,14900.0,14600.0,15000.0,16800.0,17400.0,17600.0,16700.0,18200.0,18000.0,19500.0,18300.0,17500.0,15800.0,15500.0,15900.0,17800.0,18400.0,18600.0,17700.0,19400.0,19100.0,28000.0,19800.0,19000.0,17200.0,16900.0,17300.0,19400.0,20000.0,20200.0,21500.0,21000.0,20700.0,21500.0,25000.0,32000.0,24000.0,22000.0,20500.0,21000.0,23000.0,28000.0,30000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20500.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,20000.0,20500.0,20000.0,19500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[18400.0,19100.0,20400.0,20900.0,21300.0,20200.0,19600.0,19300.0,22600.0,23300.0,21600.0,18100.0,18800.0,19700.0,21100.0,21700.0,22100.0,21000.0,20400.0,20100.0,23400.0,24100.0,22400.0,18700.0,19300.0,20100.0,21500.0,22100.0,22600.0,21500.0,20900.0,20600.0,24000.0,24800.0,23000.0,19200.0,19800.0,20600.0,22100.0,22700.0,23200.0,27800.0,26500.0,21400.0,24700.0,25400.0,23600.0,19700.0,20200.0,21000.0,26800.0,27900.0,26100.0,22800.0,21800.0,21500.0,26400.0,27200.0,25600.0,21100.0,20700.0,21500.0,23000.0,23600.0,24100.0,23000.0,22400.0,22000.0,25500.0,28700.0,27200.0,22600.0,21400.0,29800.0,37600.0,34200.0,31800.0,33900.0,31500.0,29800.0,33600.0,32800.0,30600.0,25800.0,23100.0,23900.0,25200.0,25800.0,26300.0,25100.0,24400.0,24000.0,27700.0,28500.0,26500.0,22100.0,23500.0,24300.0,25600.0,27200.0,29800.0,28100.0,25600.0,25100.0,28900.0,33700.0,38900.0,35600.0,31800.0,28900.0,27400.0,26800.0,27200.0,26100.0,25400.0,25000.0,28600.0,29200.0,27100.0,22800.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[12672.0,13728.0,14256.0,13728.0,13700.0,11880.0,11088.0,11352.0,15048.0,14916.0,13860.0,11352.0,14016.0,15184.0,19710.0,16399.0,14454.0,13140.0,12264.0,12556.0,16644.0,16498.0,15330.0,12556.0,15552.0,16848.0,17496.0,16848.0,16038.0,15309.0,14152.0,16022.0,18468.0,18306.0,17010.0,13932.0,17280.0,18720.0,19440.0,18720.0,17820.0,21870.0,16934.0,17338.0,24624.0,24001.0,18900.0,15480.0,17088.0,18512.0,22645.0,20363.0,17974.0,15219.0,14204.0,14543.0,20292.0,20114.0,18690.0,15308.0,18432.0,19968.0,20736.0,19968.0,19008.0,17280.0,16128.0,17338.0,21888.0,21696.0,20160.0,16512.0,22080.0,27508.0,36018.0,29900.0,25047.0,21735.0,19320.0,19780.0,38019.0,36386.0,27773.0,19780.0,20160.0,21840.0,22680.0,21840.0,20790.0,18900.0,17640.0,19505.0,28249.0,27290.0,22050.0,18060.0,21120.0,22880.0,26136.0,28600.0,28314.0,21780.0,18480.0,20434.0,25080.0,33561.0,28875.0,20812.0,22291.0,24149.0,25078.0,22360.0,21285.0,19350.0,18060.0,20339.0,28187.0,27939.0,23704.0,18490.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[46200.0,45400.0,47900.0,47100.0,48800.0,46900.0,44800.0,45600.0,49700.0,50600.0,49200.0,48100.0,48000.0,47100.0,50200.0,49800.0,51900.0,49700.0,47600.0,48500.0,52800.0,53700.0,51900.0,51000.0,50200.0,49100.0,52400.0,51900.0,54100.0,52000.0,49800.0,50900.0,55300.0,56200.0,54600.0,53800.0,53100.0,52000.0,55400.0,55900.0,57800.0,55100.0,52900.0,53800.0,58700.0,59800.0,57900.0,56800.0,55900.0,55000.0,62400.0,59800.0,56200.0,53500.0,51200.0,52400.0,56800.0,58700.0,57400.0,57000.0,58300.0,56800.0,60100.0,61000.0,62800.0,59900.0,57000.0,58200.0,62800.0,64600.0,62700.0,61800.0,61500.0,59600.0,65800.0,63000.0,64900.0,61800.0,59200.0,60400.0,65100.0,66800.0,65700.0,64800.0,64600.0,62700.0,65400.0,66100.0,67800.0,64900.0,61800.0,62900.0,67700.0,69500.0,68400.0,67500.0,67800.0,66400.0,69300.0,72100.0,87500.0,83400.0,78200.0,73800.0,76900.0,84700.0,119800.0,154600.0,128000.0,106000.0,95000.0,87000.0,97000.0,93000.0,88000.0,84000.0,86000.0,91000.0,99000.0,105000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4300.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,4500.0,4800.0,4800.0,4100.0,4500.0,4800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4800.0,4100.0,4000.0,4000.0,4800.0,5100.0,5100.0,4300.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,4300.0,4200.0,4200.0,5000.0,5300.0,5300.0,4500.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,5200.0,5500.0,5400.0,4600.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5500.0,5200.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,5200.0,5500.0,5400.0,4600.0,5100.0,5300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,5300.0,5500.0,5500.0,4700.0,5200.0,5500.0,5900.0,5500.0,5300.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,5400.0,5700.0,5600.0,4800.0,5300.0,5500.0,5800.0,5500.0,5500.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,5500.0,5800.0,5700.0,5000.0,5400.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,6000.0,5400.0,5300.0,4900.0,5600.0,5900.0,5900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5600.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,5500.0,5800.0,5700.0,4900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3040.0,3160.0,3090.0,2720.0,2450.0,2230.0,1900.0,2110.0,2940.0,3060.0,2850.0,2430.0,3300.0,3460.0,3220.0,3310.0,3320.0,2490.0,2100.0,2310.0,3180.0,3300.0,3040.0,2670.0,3350.0,3640.0,3400.0,3030.0,2780.0,2450.0,2100.0,2380.0,3260.0,3400.0,3120.0,2730.0,3520.0,3650.0,3450.0,3310.0,2790.0,3300.0,2150.0,2400.0,3350.0,3440.0,3260.0,2900.0,3730.0,3930.0,3850.0,3510.0,3100.0,2730.0,2380.0,2610.0,3560.0,3730.0,3510.0,3100.0,3370.0,3550.0,3460.0,3090.0,2780.0,2480.0,2180.0,2420.0,3300.0,3450.0,3250.0,2950.0,3600.0,3780.0,3560.0,3110.0,2700.0,2470.0,2100.0,2350.0,3200.0,3340.0,3150.0,2820.0,3830.0,3920.0,4100.0,4610.0,4000.0,3400.0,2570.0,2620.0,3650.0,3700.0,3460.0,3150.0,4260.0,4370.0,4180.0,3620.0,3270.0,2930.0,2530.0,2810.0,3880.0,4280.0,5420.0,4170.0,4340.0,4130.0,3900.0,3470.0,3140.0,2760.0,2400.0,2650.0,3660.0,3800.0,3470.0,3050.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[12600.0,11900.0,13200.0,12400.0,12800.0,11600.0,11200.0,11900.0,13200.0,13000.0,12100.0,10900.0,12300.0,11700.0,12900.0,12100.0,12600.0,11400.0,11000.0,11700.0,13000.0,12700.0,11800.0,10600.0,11900.0,11400.0,12500.0,11700.0,12200.0,11100.0,10800.0,11400.0,12700.0,12400.0,11500.0,10400.0,11600.0,11100.0,12100.0,11400.0,11800.0,10800.0,10500.0,11100.0,12300.0,12000.0,11100.0,10000.0,11900.0,11800.0,13000.0,12000.0,12200.0,11300.0,10900.0,11500.0,12600.0,12400.0,11500.0,10400.0,11400.0,10900.0,11900.0,11200.0,11600.0,10600.0,10300.0,10900.0,12100.0,11800.0,10900.0,9800.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,10800.0,11200.0,10200.0,9900.0,10500.0,11700.0,11400.0,10500.0,9500.0,10800.0,10300.0,11400.0,10700.0,11100.0,10100.0,9800.0,10400.0,11800.0,11200.0,10300.0,9400.0,10700.0,10400.0,11700.0,10900.0,11200.0,10200.0,9900.0,10600.0,11900.0,11500.0,10900.0,9800.0,10500.0,10100.0,11200.0,10500.0,10900.0,9900.0,9600.0,10200.0,11500.0,11100.0,10300.0,9300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[87000.0,93500.0,93000.0,85000.0,81000.0,70000.0,65000.0,68000.0,89000.0,93000.0,89000.0,78000.0,84000.0,90000.0,90000.0,82000.0,78000.0,67000.0,62000.0,66000.0,86000.0,90000.0,86000.0,75000.0,82000.0,88000.0,88000.0,80000.0,76000.0,66000.0,61000.0,64000.0,84000.0,88000.0,84000.0,74000.0,80000.0,86000.0,86000.0,78000.0,74000.0,64000.0,59000.0,62000.0,82000.0,86000.0,82000.0,72000.0,82000.0,88000.0,92000.0,88000.0,80000.0,67000.0,62000.0,65000.0,85000.0,88000.0,84000.0,74000.0,77000.0,82000.0,82000.0,75000.0,71000.0,62000.0,57000.0,60000.0,79000.0,82000.0,79000.0,69000.0,71000.0,77000.0,77000.0,70000.0,66000.0,57000.0,53000.0,56000.0,73000.0,77000.0,73000.0,64000.0,63000.0,68000.0,68000.0,62000.0,59000.0,51000.0,47000.0,50000.0,65000.0,68000.0,65000.0,57000.0,56000.0,60500.0,60500.0,55000.0,52000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,58000.0,60500.0,58000.0,51000.0,49000.0,53000.0,53000.0,48000.0,46000.0,39000.0,36000.0,38000.0,50000.0,53000.0,50000.0,44000.0]}},{"title":"Five Points, Manhattan","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Five Points, Manhattan\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[33676,29793,37663,30709,28528,24425,29181,30238,33005,28283,48892,58103,111896,61479,50100,34886,37221,38296,39096,30847,77314,53046,48418,46312,51702,42795,52266,35686,31957,33143,33561,31693,46252,30266,27205,27182,27526,29082,26404,21279,24989,27586,27020,37366,40321,33411,34320,31370,29009,30158,45837,35467,34493,27781,29453,26183,29417,24891,30179,30044,32519,25415,30197,24033,24669,19870,21074,26138,25016,25827,26471,23653,48997,28172,30301,26880,21800,23186,22076,21202,18904,21135,21928,26011,35396,28460,36889,26909,30735,25228,30194,23776,45424,37286,32030,29814,39932,29112,61483,26538,32227,27517,28253,27971,27761,29030,28436,31723,33057,28110,25053,31415,26393,26101,26601,26856,22266,37483,42808,29533],"flat_reference_value":16909.180242741437,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[14500.0,13700.0,14200.0,13100.0,12600.0,11900.0,12500.0,13000.0,12700.0,13900.0,13600.0,15100.0,15700.0,14500.0,14900.0,13900.0,13500.0,12800.0,13400.0,13900.0,13600.0,14700.0,14400.0,15900.0,16800.0,15100.0,15700.0,14600.0,14100.0,13400.0,14200.0,14600.0,14100.0,15500.0,15100.0,16600.0,17500.0,16200.0,16800.0,15500.0,15000.0,14400.0,15100.0,15500.0,15000.0,16400.0,16000.0,17700.0,18300.0,17100.0,19000.0,20500.0,18800.0,17300.0,17700.0,18100.0,17100.0,18100.0,17500.0,19500.0,20400.0,18800.0,19200.0,17800.0,17100.0,16400.0,17100.0,17700.0,17000.0,18300.0,17900.0,19800.0,21800.0,22800.0,21600.0,19400.0,18100.0,17400.0,18100.0,18700.0,17900.0,19200.0,18700.0,20700.0,21400.0,19700.0,20200.0,18700.0,18000.0,17300.0,18100.0,18600.0,17800.0,19400.0,20100.0,21500.0,22100.0,20000.0,20400.0,18800.0,18100.0,17400.0,18000.0,18400.0,17600.0,19000.0,18500.0,20400.0,21100.0,19000.0,19500.0,18000.0,17200.0,16600.0,17200.0,17700.0,16900.0,18300.0,17800.0,19600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[28400.0,25600.0,29100.0,26200.0,25400.0,23800.0,25100.0,24300.0,24700.0,26100.0,25800.0,27500.0,28900.0,25200.0,29600.0,26400.0,25700.0,23900.0,25500.0,24600.0,24900.0,26500.0,26000.0,27800.0,31200.0,27800.0,30800.0,26900.0,25800.0,24100.0,25600.0,24800.0,25100.0,26700.0,26300.0,28200.0,29400.0,25900.0,30100.0,26800.0,26100.0,24500.0,26000.0,25400.0,25600.0,27100.0,29800.0,31500.0,30400.0,27100.0,31800.0,35600.0,34200.0,30500.0,31900.0,30800.0,28400.0,28900.0,28600.0,30700.0,32100.0,28300.0,31900.0,28700.0,27600.0,25800.0,27200.0,26500.0,25900.0,27400.0,26800.0,28900.0,29800.0,25900.0,29400.0,26300.0,25500.0,24100.0,25800.0,25100.0,24600.0,26000.0,26400.0,32800.0,29100.0,24800.0,27900.0,24900.0,24100.0,22600.0,24300.0,23500.0,23100.0,26800.0,25900.0,26700.0,26900.0,23600.0,26400.0,23200.0,22400.0,21100.0,22500.0,21800.0,21400.0,22900.0,22300.0,24100.0,24800.0,21500.0,24600.0,21700.0,20900.0,19600.0,20800.0,20200.0,19900.0,21300.0,20800.0,22500.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[33100.0,31800.0,35400.0,32900.0,30200.0,26100.0,25400.0,26800.0,30100.0,34600.0,33800.0,29500.0,32400.0,31100.0,34800.0,31900.0,29400.0,25700.0,24900.0,26200.0,29800.0,33900.0,32800.0,28600.0,31600.0,30200.0,33700.0,31100.0,28500.0,24800.0,24200.0,25500.0,28900.0,33200.0,31900.0,27800.0,30800.0,29500.0,32900.0,30400.0,27800.0,24100.0,23600.0,24800.0,28100.0,32300.0,31000.0,27200.0,30100.0,28900.0,36500.0,44200.0,39800.0,30500.0,27800.0,27200.0,29900.0,33700.0,31500.0,28900.0,29800.0,28400.0,31600.0,29200.0,26900.0,23400.0,22800.0,24100.0,27300.0,31100.0,29800.0,26400.0,28900.0,27400.0,30500.0,28100.0,25800.0,22600.0,21900.0,23200.0,26500.0,32400.0,31800.0,30200.0,27900.0,26500.0,29400.0,27200.0,24900.0,21800.0,21200.0,22400.0,25600.0,29100.0,27800.0,24500.0,26800.0,25400.0,28200.0,26100.0,23900.0,20900.0,20300.0,21500.0,24600.0,28100.0,26700.0,23600.0,25900.0,24600.0,27300.0,25200.0,23100.0,20100.0,19600.0,20700.0,23700.0,27100.0,25800.0,22800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[34000.0,33500.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28500.0,29000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31500.0,33000.0,31000.0,29500.0,27000.0,27500.0,27000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,27500.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27500.0,25000.0,25500.0,25500.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25500.0,27500.0,27000.0,28000.0,26500.0,25500.0,23500.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,26000.0,25500.0,28000.0,31000.0,28500.0,25500.0,25000.0,24000.0,24500.0,25500.0,24500.0,23000.0,25000.0,23500.0,24500.0,23000.0,22000.0,20500.0,21000.0,21000.0,21500.0,23000.0,22500.0,21000.0,22500.0,21500.0,22500.0,21500.0,20500.0,19500.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,20500.0,21500.0,19000.0,19500.0,19500.0,20000.0,21500.0,20500.0,19000.0,20500.0,20000.0,20500.0,19500.0,19000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,18500.0,20000.0,19500.0,18000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17000.0,17500.0,19000.0,18500.0,17000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[42000.0,40000.0,44000.0,40000.0,39000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,39000.0,42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,36000.0,39000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,34000.0,37000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,38000.0,44000.0,43000.0,39000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,26000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[8150.0,7880.0,9420.0,8590.0,7720.0,6980.0,7430.0,7340.0,9050.0,9380.0,8560.0,7790.0,8420.0,8010.0,9640.0,8810.0,7960.0,7170.0,7580.0,7530.0,9210.0,9620.0,8830.0,7980.0,12480.0,11870.0,9860.0,9040.0,8180.0,7390.0,7790.0,7720.0,9430.0,9870.0,9020.0,8210.0,8790.0,8430.0,10120.0,9240.0,8380.0,7560.0,7990.0,7940.0,9660.0,10080.0,10640.0,9720.0,9660.0,9210.0,15220.0,13640.0,11300.0,9110.0,10050.0,9190.0,10590.0,11020.0,10110.0,9230.0,9470.0,9040.0,10820.0,9890.0,9010.0,8090.0,8540.0,8510.0,10360.0,10810.0,9920.0,9010.0,13470.0,12360.0,13690.0,10460.0,9510.0,8560.0,9010.0,8990.0,10920.0,11410.0,10460.0,12340.0,10510.0,10030.0,12010.0,11010.0,10020.0,9010.0,9520.0,9480.0,11520.0,14800.0,11700.0,10020.0,10710.0,10230.0,12260.0,11210.0,10210.0,9190.0,9700.0,9660.0,11710.0,12240.0,11190.0,10210.0,11020.0,10540.0,12610.0,11560.0,10520.0,11820.0,11460.0,10010.0,12060.0,12590.0,11540.0,10510.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4798.0,4400.0,4759.0,4366.0,4242.0,3548.0,3713.0,3581.0,4116.0,4763.0,4363.0,3711.0,5100.0,5067.0,4908.0,5023.0,4416.0,4088.0,3793.0,4122.0,4463.0,4968.0,5022.0,4192.0,5656.0,5292.0,5720.0,5040.0,5100.0,4356.0,4250.0,4133.0,5047.0,5238.0,5353.0,4604.0,5927.0,6007.0,5940.0,5613.0,5508.0,4609.0,4636.0,4604.0,5504.0,5832.0,6010.0,4821.0,6875.0,6763.0,8696.0,9346.0,7983.0,6547.0,5940.0,6052.0,6483.0,7101.0,6572.0,5593.0,6626.0,6139.0,6380.0,5907.0,5974.0,5053.0,5030.0,4844.0,5741.0,6201.0,6394.0,5124.0,6209.0,6169.0,5975.0,5939.0,5488.0,4928.0,4712.0,5018.0,5378.0,8467.0,7346.0,5844.0,6048.0,5657.0,6059.0,5557.0,5454.0,4704.0,4728.0,4557.0,5292.0,5950.0,5667.0,4871.0,5882.0,5560.0,5892.0,5296.0,5200.0,4668.0,4332.0,4569.0,5045.0,5616.0,5677.0,4643.0,5488.0,5454.0,5445.0,5355.0,4850.0,4400.0,4335.0,4307.0,5047.0,5292.0,5353.0,4418.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[34200.0,33400.0,38900.0,41600.0,45200.0,49800.0,54300.0,51600.0,44200.0,43100.0,38600.0,39400.0,35800.0,35200.0,40600.0,43900.0,47800.0,52400.0,57100.0,54300.0,46300.0,45200.0,40400.0,41500.0,38300.0,41900.0,46700.0,48200.0,51400.0,56300.0,61200.0,58100.0,49700.0,48300.0,43100.0,44200.0,39900.0,39300.0,45200.0,49600.0,53800.0,59100.0,64300.0,61200.0,52600.0,51300.0,46100.0,47200.0,40100.0,41800.0,52300.0,57600.0,55900.0,54200.0,57800.0,55100.0,49300.0,51600.0,47200.0,48300.0,38700.0,38200.0,44100.0,49300.0,54200.0,59800.0,65400.0,62100.0,53200.0,52100.0,46800.0,47900.0,43200.0,44600.0,49800.0,52100.0,56900.0,62400.0,68200.0,64900.0,55300.0,53600.0,48200.0,49400.0,38900.0,38400.0,44300.0,49100.0,53700.0,58600.0,63900.0,60700.0,51900.0,50300.0,45100.0,46200.0,37800.0,37300.0,43100.0,47800.0,52300.0,57100.0,62200.0,59100.0,50600.0,49100.0,44100.0,45200.0,36700.0,36200.0,41900.0,46400.0,50800.0,55300.0,60200.0,57100.0,48900.0,47400.0,42700.0,43600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4030.0,3990.0,3910.0,3840.0,3800.0,3610.0,3420.0,3500.0,3840.0,4100.0,4100.0,3610.0,4130.0,4100.0,4020.0,3940.0,3900.0,3710.0,3510.0,3590.0,3940.0,4210.0,4210.0,3710.0,6000.0,5410.0,4830.0,4240.0,4200.0,3990.0,3780.0,3860.0,4240.0,4540.0,4540.0,3990.0,4560.0,4520.0,4430.0,4340.0,4300.0,4090.0,3870.0,3960.0,4340.0,4640.0,4640.0,4090.0,4980.0,4940.0,5140.0,5350.0,5200.0,4470.0,4230.0,4320.0,4750.0,5080.0,5080.0,4470.0,5190.0,5150.0,5050.0,4950.0,4900.0,4660.0,4410.0,4510.0,4950.0,5290.0,5290.0,4660.0,5410.0,5360.0,5250.0,5150.0,5100.0,4850.0,4590.0,4690.0,5150.0,5510.0,5510.0,6050.0,5620.0,5570.0,5460.0,5350.0,5300.0,5040.0,4770.0,4880.0,5350.0,5720.0,5720.0,5040.0,5940.0,5880.0,5770.0,5660.0,5600.0,5320.0,5040.0,5150.0,5660.0,6900.0,7100.0,6100.0,6550.0,6290.0,5970.0,5860.0,5800.0,5510.0,5220.0,5340.0,5860.0,6260.0,6260.0,5510.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1340.0,1680.0,1740.0,1560.0,1870.0,2020.0,1880.0,2240.0,1720.0,1820.0,1850.0,1350.0,1700.0,1650.0,1370.0,1720.0,1650.0,2080.0,1850.0,1990.0,1590.0,1890.0,1480.0,1540.0,1410.0,1350.0,1650.0,1400.0,1690.0,1730.0,2110.0,1630.0,1790.0,1570.0,1590.0,1280.0,1150.0,1560.0,1510.0,1420.0,1780.0,1710.0,2000.0,1600.0,1780.0,1810.0,1720.0,1470.0,1250.0,1500.0,1700.0,1680.0,1200.0,1580.0,1320.0,1350.0,1360.0,1330.0,1300.0,1110.0,1000.0,1290.0,1400.0,1260.0,1480.0,1660.0,1570.0,1740.0,1350.0,1420.0,1180.0,1140.0,1230.0,1370.0,1220.0,1550.0,1380.0,1790.0,1640.0,1820.0,1370.0,1490.0,1250.0,1290.0,1050.0,1420.0,1350.0,1210.0,1530.0,1500.0,2080.0,1690.0,1390.0,1640.0,1360.0,1090.0,1180.0,1320.0,1170.0,1390.0,1250.0,1860.0,1850.0,1620.0,1300.0,1490.0,1420.0,1100.0,1120.0,1370.0,1130.0,1370.0,1270.0,1600.0,1410.0,1660.0,1290.0,1470.0,1450.0,1030.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[5170.0,5310.0,6300.0,6970.0,7830.0,8490.0,8890.0,8620.0,6970.0,7300.0,6300.0,5840.0,5540.0,5690.0,6750.0,7460.0,8390.0,9100.0,9525.0,9240.0,7460.0,7820.0,6750.0,6260.0,5910.0,6060.0,7200.0,7960.0,8940.0,9700.0,10160.0,9860.0,7960.0,8340.0,7200.0,6670.0,6430.0,6600.0,7830.0,8660.0,9730.0,10550.0,11050.0,10720.0,8660.0,9070.0,7830.0,7260.0,7830.0,8030.0,9940.0,10550.0,11850.0,12860.0,13460.0,13060.0,12150.0,12250.0,9540.0,8840.0,8720.0,8930.0,10620.0,11740.0,13190.0,14310.0,14990.0,14540.0,11740.0,12310.0,10620.0,9840.0,8350.0,8560.0,10170.0,11240.0,12630.0,13710.0,14350.0,13920.0,11240.0,11790.0,10970.0,12020.0,7390.0,7580.0,9000.0,9950.0,11180.0,12130.0,12700.0,12320.0,9950.0,10430.0,9000.0,8340.0,6800.0,6970.0,8280.0,9150.0,10290.0,11160.0,11680.0,11330.0,9150.0,9600.0,8280.0,7670.0,6210.0,6370.0,7560.0,8360.0,9390.0,10190.0,10670.0,10350.0,8360.0,8760.0,7560.0,7010.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[10800.0,11300.0,12200.0,13000.0,14200.0,15700.0,17100.0,17800.0,26200.0,24300.0,16700.0,14300.0,12500.0,13200.0,14100.0,14900.0,16200.0,17600.0,18700.0,19200.0,18300.0,17200.0,15800.0,14500.0,13100.0,13700.0,14600.0,15400.0,16700.0,18000.0,19200.0,19700.0,18700.0,17600.0,16200.0,15000.0,13800.0,14400.0,15300.0,16100.0,17400.0,18800.0,20000.0,20500.0,19400.0,18300.0,16800.0,15500.0,15200.0,15500.0,17400.0,14200.0,11700.0,12800.0,9800.0,10600.0,11300.0,11900.0,11500.0,12100.0,12500.0,12900.0,13700.0,14200.0,15100.0,16000.0,16700.0,17100.0,16500.0,15900.0,15000.0,14600.0,14800.0,14400.0,15400.0,16200.0,17300.0,18600.0,19500.0,20000.0,18900.0,17900.0,16900.0,15900.0,15600.0,16100.0,17000.0,17700.0,18900.0,20200.0,21100.0,21600.0,20400.0,19500.0,18300.0,17100.0,16700.0,17200.0,18200.0,18900.0,20100.0,21500.0,22400.0,23000.0,21800.0,20800.0,19500.0,18200.0,17600.0,18200.0,19200.0,19900.0,21200.0,22600.0,23500.0,24100.0,22800.0,21800.0,20400.0,19000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[7200.0,7000.0,7600.0,7800.0,7700.0,6800.0,6500.0,6400.0,7200.0,7900.0,7600.0,6700.0,7300.0,7200.0,7800.0,7900.0,7700.0,6800.0,6600.0,6500.0,7300.0,8000.0,7700.0,6800.0,7400.0,7300.0,7900.0,8000.0,7800.0,6900.0,6700.0,6600.0,7400.0,8100.0,7800.0,6900.0,7500.0,7400.0,8000.0,8200.0,7900.0,7000.0,6800.0,6700.0,7500.0,8300.0,7900.0,7500.0,7400.0,7200.0,6200.0,5600.0,5700.0,5800.0,5900.0,5800.0,6400.0,6900.0,6700.0,6100.0,6500.0,6500.0,6800.0,6900.0,6700.0,6100.0,6000.0,5900.0,6500.0,7000.0,6700.0,6000.0,6400.0,6400.0,6700.0,6800.0,6600.0,5900.0,5800.0,5700.0,6300.0,6800.0,6500.0,5800.0,6100.0,6100.0,6400.0,6500.0,6300.0,5600.0,5500.0,5400.0,6000.0,6500.0,6200.0,5500.0,5800.0,5800.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,5700.0,6200.0,5900.0,5200.0,5500.0,5500.0,5800.0,5900.0,5700.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,5400.0,5900.0,5600.0,4900.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1638.0,1658.0,1989.0,2170.0,2009.0,2265.0,2243.0,2087.0,2521.0,2148.0,1833.0,1599.0,1680.0,1700.0,2040.0,2220.0,2060.0,2200.0,2300.0,2140.0,2530.0,2080.0,1880.0,2420.0,1638.0,1658.0,1989.0,1950.0,2009.0,2145.0,2573.0,2087.0,2471.0,2028.0,1833.0,1599.0,1596.0,1615.0,1938.0,2120.0,1957.0,2090.0,2185.0,2033.0,2492.0,1976.0,1786.0,1558.0,1838.0,1658.0,1989.0,1950.0,2009.0,2845.0,2563.0,2087.0,2501.0,2028.0,1833.0,1599.0,1638.0,1658.0,3089.0,1950.0,2009.0,2145.0,2243.0,2087.0,2471.0,2028.0,2003.0,1599.0,1554.0,1573.0,1887.0,2270.0,1906.0,2035.0,2348.0,1980.0,2353.0,1924.0,2039.0,1517.0,1512.0,1530.0,1836.0,1970.0,1854.0,2150.0,2070.0,1926.0,2124.0,2342.0,1692.0,1476.0,2332.0,1530.0,1836.0,1800.0,2054.0,1980.0,2070.0,1926.0,2704.0,1872.0,1992.0,1476.0,1554.0,1573.0,1887.0,1850.0,2466.0,2035.0,2128.0,2180.0,2183.0,2294.0,1739.0,1517.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1320.0,1280.0,1450.0,1490.0,1580.0,1670.0,1760.0,1690.0,1570.0,1510.0,1420.0,1360.0,1390.0,1340.0,1510.0,1560.0,1640.0,1740.0,1830.0,1770.0,1630.0,1580.0,1470.0,1410.0,1450.0,1400.0,1580.0,1640.0,1710.0,1820.0,1900.0,1830.0,1710.0,1640.0,1530.0,1470.0,1510.0,1460.0,1640.0,1700.0,1790.0,1890.0,1990.0,1920.0,1780.0,1710.0,1590.0,1530.0,1580.0,1540.0,1720.0,1810.0,1880.0,1930.0,2020.0,1950.0,1800.0,1750.0,1620.0,1560.0,1500.0,1460.0,1630.0,1680.0,1760.0,1850.0,1930.0,1870.0,1740.0,1680.0,1570.0,1510.0,1550.0,1500.0,1680.0,1740.0,1830.0,1920.0,2010.0,1940.0,1810.0,1750.0,1630.0,1570.0,1600.0,1550.0,1730.0,1790.0,1880.0,1970.0,2060.0,1990.0,1850.0,1790.0,1670.0,1610.0,1630.0,1580.0,1760.0,1820.0,1910.0,2000.0,2100.0,2020.0,1890.0,1820.0,1700.0,1640.0,1660.0,1610.0,1790.0,1850.0,1940.0,2040.0,2140.0,2060.0,1920.0,1860.0,1730.0,1670.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1026.0,1007.0,1017.0,969.0,931.0,884.0,855.0,855.0,988.0,1007.0,979.0,903.0,972.0,954.0,963.0,918.0,882.0,837.0,810.0,810.0,936.0,954.0,927.0,855.0,950.0,933.0,942.0,898.0,862.0,818.0,792.0,792.0,915.0,933.0,906.0,836.0,918.0,901.0,910.0,867.0,833.0,791.0,765.0,765.0,884.0,901.0,876.0,808.0,918.0,901.0,960.0,920.0,833.0,791.0,765.0,765.0,884.0,901.0,876.0,808.0,864.0,848.0,856.0,816.0,784.0,744.0,720.0,720.0,832.0,848.0,824.0,760.0,842.0,827.0,835.0,796.0,764.0,725.0,702.0,702.0,811.0,827.0,803.0,741.0,778.0,763.0,770.0,734.0,706.0,670.0,648.0,648.0,749.0,763.0,742.0,684.0,702.0,689.0,696.0,663.0,637.0,605.0,585.0,585.0,676.0,689.0,670.0,618.0,626.0,615.0,621.0,592.0,568.0,539.0,522.0,522.0,603.0,615.0,597.0,551.0]}},{"title":"Cherimoya","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Cherimoya\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[35204,22835,25788,21510,19237,57159,33002,28478,24621,31748,31006,38476,39807,23640,33149,34610,31301,24523,38157,27740,30198,41334,38045,29815,31788,36192,33831,30999,26295,19233,20879,23502,20400,25169,22742,21704,33139,20147,23946,20991,19726,16583,18710,20455,21566,26209,26117,20419,21770,19133,17798,20627,23138,20856,23046,21931,22372,26350,26061,24720,23899,19975,23682,30770,22421,17890,20557,18425,23371,27803,26823,22767,21614,20947,25320,26198,21885,16692,17959,19579,29515,36558,25510,22718,23218,20591,23068,22446,21774,21349,23244,22087,29557,33908,29739,25240,27372,26766,30044,35011,25216,19764,20377,18203,26144,33353,30830,23627,20026,17629,23124,22105,17928,13963,12687,13873,15914,20330,17658,14494],"flat_reference_value":16932.15422115407,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[19000.0,18500.0,20500.0,19200.0,16800.0,15000.0,15400.0,14800.0,14600.0,16000.0,17600.0,18700.0,20500.0,19400.0,21700.0,20200.0,17800.0,15800.0,16300.0,15600.0,15300.0,17000.0,18400.0,19600.0,21600.0,20200.0,22400.0,21100.0,18500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16200.0,16000.0,17600.0,19300.0,20300.0,22500.0,21100.0,23600.0,22000.0,19400.0,17200.0,17800.0,17000.0,16600.0,18400.0,20000.0,21200.0,23400.0,22200.0,24100.0,23200.0,21400.0,19200.0,19800.0,18800.0,18000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22200.0,24400.0,23100.0,26000.0,24500.0,21900.0,19600.0,20400.0,19300.0,18400.0,20200.0,21800.0,23100.0,25300.0,23900.0,26800.0,25200.0,22500.0,20100.0,20900.0,19800.0,19000.0,20800.0,22400.0,23800.0,26100.0,24700.0,27800.0,25900.0,23200.0,20700.0,21500.0,20400.0,19600.0,21400.0,23100.0,24500.0,26800.0,25600.0,28500.0,26700.0,23900.0,21300.0,22200.0,21000.0,20100.0,22000.0,23700.0,25200.0,27600.0,26100.0,29300.0,27400.0,24500.0,21900.0,22800.0,21600.0,20700.0,22600.0,24400.0,25900.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[34200.0,35800.0,36500.0,33100.0,29400.0,25800.0,24100.0,23600.0,23900.0,26200.0,29500.0,31000.0,35400.0,36900.0,37800.0,34200.0,30100.0,26400.0,24800.0,24200.0,24600.0,27100.0,30400.0,31800.0,52400.0,108500.0,58200.0,43600.0,36800.0,31500.0,29200.0,28400.0,28100.0,30500.0,33900.0,35200.0,41200.0,42800.0,43500.0,38900.0,34100.0,29800.0,28300.0,27600.0,27900.0,30200.0,33400.0,35100.0,40800.0,41900.0,44200.0,48500.0,43100.0,36400.0,33800.0,32900.0,32100.0,34500.0,37200.0,38900.0,44600.0,45800.0,46900.0,42300.0,37400.0,32800.0,30900.0,30100.0,29600.0,31800.0,35400.0,37100.0,42900.0,44100.0,45200.0,40600.0,35900.0,31200.0,29500.0,28800.0,28400.0,30900.0,34200.0,36000.0,41800.0,43200.0,44500.0,39800.0,35100.0,30400.0,28900.0,28200.0,29500.0,33800.0,38900.0,41200.0,51400.0,56800.0,52100.0,44300.0,37600.0,31800.0,29400.0,28100.0,27600.0,29800.0,33100.0,34900.0,39500.0,41200.0,40800.0,36400.0,31500.0,27200.0,25600.0,24900.0,24500.0,26800.0,29900.0,31400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[31200.0,30400.0,32800.0,31500.0,29800.0,27600.0,26900.0,28100.0,29400.0,32100.0,33500.0,31800.0,33100.0,31600.0,33900.0,30500.0,28700.0,27200.0,26400.0,27900.0,28600.0,30800.0,32400.0,30900.0,32700.0,30100.0,31900.0,29600.0,28200.0,26100.0,25400.0,26800.0,27900.0,31500.0,33200.0,29800.0,31400.0,29700.0,31800.0,28900.0,27300.0,25800.0,24900.0,26200.0,27100.0,29500.0,31100.0,28600.0,30200.0,29100.0,37800.0,44200.0,41500.0,33600.0,31800.0,30400.0,31200.0,32900.0,34100.0,31700.0,33400.0,30800.0,32600.0,29900.0,27500.0,25100.0,24300.0,25600.0,26900.0,29300.0,30700.0,28400.0,30200.0,28100.0,29800.0,27600.0,25800.0,23900.0,23100.0,24200.0,25500.0,27800.0,29100.0,26900.0,28800.0,26700.0,28100.0,25900.0,24300.0,22400.0,21800.0,22900.0,24100.0,26500.0,27900.0,25600.0,27200.0,25400.0,26800.0,24600.0,23100.0,21300.0,20800.0,21900.0,23200.0,25400.0,26700.0,24800.0,26100.0,24300.0,25500.0,23800.0,22200.0,20500.0,19900.0,21100.0,22400.0,24600.0,25800.0,23900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[38000.0,37500.0,37000.0,35500.0,33500.0,30500.0,30000.0,30000.0,30500.0,32000.0,34000.0,35500.0,35500.0,35000.0,35000.0,33500.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28800.0,30500.0,32000.0,33500.0,33500.0,33000.0,33000.0,31500.0,30000.0,27000.0,26500.0,26500.0,27000.0,28500.0,30000.0,31500.0,32000.0,32000.0,31500.0,30500.0,29000.0,26000.0,25500.0,25500.0,26000.0,27500.0,29000.0,30500.0,31000.0,30500.0,32000.0,33000.0,30500.0,26000.0,25000.0,24500.0,25000.0,26500.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28500.0,28500.0,27500.0,26000.0,23500.0,23000.0,23000.0,23500.0,24500.0,26000.0,27000.0,26500.0,26500.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21000.0,21500.0,22500.0,24000.0,25000.0,24500.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,19800.0,19500.0,19500.0,19800.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21500.0,21500.0,20500.0,19500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17000.0,17500.0,18500.0,19500.0,20500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[46200.0,46000.0,48300.0,46200.0,42000.0,37800.0,35700.0,35900.0,37800.0,39900.0,44100.0,46000.0,46500.0,46000.0,48500.0,46000.0,42200.0,37500.0,35500.0,35800.0,37600.0,39800.0,43800.0,45500.0,42500.0,41800.0,43700.0,41800.0,38000.0,34200.0,32300.0,32300.0,34000.0,36000.0,39500.0,41000.0,40000.0,39600.0,41400.0,39600.0,36000.0,32400.0,30600.0,30600.0,32400.0,34200.0,37800.0,39600.0,40500.0,40000.0,43000.0,45000.0,42000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32500.0,33500.0,35500.0,39000.0,40500.0,39500.0,38000.0,39500.0,37500.0,34000.0,30500.0,28800.0,28500.0,29500.0,31000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31500.0,32500.0,31000.0,28000.0,25200.0,23800.0,23800.0,25000.0,26500.0,29000.0,30000.0,29500.0,28800.0,30000.0,28600.0,26000.0,23400.0,22100.0,22100.0,23400.0,24700.0,27300.0,28300.0,28000.0,27500.0,28800.0,27500.0,25000.0,22500.0,21300.0,21300.0,22500.0,23800.0,26200.0,27000.0,26000.0,25300.0,26500.0,25300.0,23000.0,20700.0,19600.0,19600.0,20700.0,21800.0,24000.0,25000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[26000.0,24500.0,21000.0,18500.0,17000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,21000.0,24000.0,27000.0,26000.0,22500.0,19500.0,18000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,19000.0,22500.0,25000.0,28500.0,27500.0,24000.0,21000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,20000.0,24000.0,27000.0,30000.0,29000.0,25000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,21000.0,25000.0,28000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,27500.0,25000.0,22500.0,21000.0,20500.0,21000.0,23000.0,27500.0,31000.0,36000.0,48000.0,30000.0,26500.0,24000.0,21500.0,21500.0,21500.0,23000.0,25000.0,30000.0,34000.0,37500.0,36000.0,31000.0,27500.0,25000.0,22500.0,22500.0,22500.0,24000.0,26000.0,31000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,32500.0,28500.0,26000.0,23500.0,23500.0,23500.0,25000.0,27500.0,32500.0,36500.0,39000.0,37500.0,32500.0,28500.0,26000.0,23500.0,23500.0,23500.0,25000.0,27500.0,32500.0,36500.0,40500.0,39000.0,34000.0,29500.0,27000.0,24500.0,24500.0,24500.0,26000.0,28500.0,34000.0,38000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[5123.0,4450.0,4520.0,4020.0,3880.0,3690.0,3710.0,3795.0,3950.0,4380.0,4590.0,5025.0,5310.0,4490.0,4760.0,4230.0,4150.0,3770.0,3890.0,3975.0,4090.0,4600.0,4820.0,5250.0,5680.0,4790.0,5080.0,4510.0,4440.0,4030.0,4160.0,4240.0,4380.0,4920.0,5150.0,5620.0,6050.0,5110.0,5400.0,4790.0,4710.0,4290.0,4420.0,4520.0,4660.0,5230.0,5480.0,5970.0,7020.0,6220.0,7150.0,6750.0,6430.0,5560.0,5120.0,5240.0,5450.0,6070.0,6340.0,6920.0,6650.0,5620.0,5930.0,5280.0,5190.0,4720.0,4860.0,4970.0,5120.0,5750.0,6020.0,6560.0,6400.0,5410.0,5720.0,5080.0,5000.0,4550.0,4680.0,4790.0,4930.0,5540.0,5800.0,6320.0,6160.0,5210.0,5510.0,4890.0,4810.0,4380.0,4510.0,4610.0,4750.0,5330.0,5580.0,6090.0,5800.0,5080.0,5180.0,4600.0,4530.0,4120.0,4240.0,4340.0,4470.0,5020.0,5250.0,5730.0,5560.0,4700.0,4970.0,4410.0,4340.0,3950.0,4070.0,4160.0,4280.0,4810.0,5030.0,5490.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[35900.0,33300.0,31900.0,28000.0,25300.0,22600.0,21300.0,21800.0,24000.0,26600.0,30600.0,34600.0,37900.0,35100.0,33700.0,29500.0,26600.0,23800.0,22400.0,23000.0,25200.0,28000.0,32300.0,36500.0,39800.0,36800.0,35400.0,31000.0,28000.0,25100.0,23600.0,24200.0,26500.0,29500.0,33900.0,38300.0,42400.0,39200.0,37700.0,32900.0,29800.0,26700.0,25100.0,25700.0,28200.0,31400.0,36100.0,40800.0,48800.0,45200.0,51200.0,45500.0,39500.0,32200.0,28900.0,29600.0,32500.0,36100.0,41600.0,47000.0,50100.0,46400.0,44500.0,38900.0,35200.0,31500.0,37100.0,30400.0,33400.0,37100.0,42600.0,48200.0,51300.0,47500.0,45600.0,39900.0,36100.0,32300.0,30400.0,31200.0,34200.0,38000.0,43700.0,49400.0,61800.0,51100.0,49100.0,42900.0,38800.0,34800.0,32700.0,33500.0,36800.0,40900.0,47100.0,53200.0,59100.0,54700.0,52500.0,45900.0,41600.0,37200.0,35000.0,35900.0,46500.0,43700.0,50300.0,56900.0,62900.0,58200.0,55900.0,48900.0,44300.0,48300.0,37300.0,38200.0,41900.0,46600.0,53600.0,60600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1040.0,1120.0,1050.0,960.0,860.0,800.0,780.0,830.0,880.0,940.0,1000.0,1060.0,1100.0,1200.0,1080.0,1010.0,910.0,840.0,820.0,880.0,930.0,990.0,1050.0,1120.0,1140.0,1220.0,1110.0,1040.0,940.0,870.0,850.0,910.0,960.0,1020.0,1080.0,1150.0,1180.0,1260.0,1150.0,1100.0,980.0,900.0,880.0,940.0,1000.0,1060.0,1120.0,1200.0,1300.0,1380.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1000.0,980.0,1040.0,1100.0,1170.0,1240.0,1320.0,1380.0,1480.0,1340.0,1260.0,1130.0,1040.0,1020.0,1090.0,1160.0,1230.0,1300.0,1400.0,1280.0,1360.0,1260.0,1170.0,1050.0,970.0,950.0,1010.0,1080.0,1140.0,1210.0,1290.0,1340.0,1420.0,1290.0,1210.0,1090.0,1010.0,990.0,1050.0,1120.0,1190.0,1250.0,1340.0,1460.0,1560.0,1420.0,1320.0,1190.0,1100.0,1080.0,1150.0,1220.0,1290.0,1370.0,1460.0,1520.0,1620.0,1500.0,1380.0,1240.0,1150.0,1120.0,1200.0,1280.0,1350.0,1430.0,1520.0],"meta/muse-ember":[10100.0,10900.0,12100.0,10600.0,9600.0,7900.0,8100.0,7600.0,9100.0,9600.0,10400.0,8300.0,10800.0,11400.0,12400.0,11100.0,9900.0,8500.0,7800.0,8400.0,9000.0,10200.0,10700.0,8800.0,10900.0,12100.0,12600.0,11400.0,10100.0,8600.0,8200.0,8500.0,9500.0,10400.0,11100.0,9100.0,11500.0,12400.0,13200.0,11900.0,10400.0,8900.0,8600.0,8800.0,9900.0,10800.0,11500.0,9400.0,12800.0,13800.0,15200.0,14500.0,12400.0,10400.0,9900.0,10100.0,11200.0,12400.0,13100.0,11000.0,12500.0,13300.0,14100.0,13000.0,11400.0,9800.0,9400.0,9600.0,10700.0,11800.0,12400.0,10400.0,11600.0,12100.0,13000.0,11900.0,10300.0,9100.0,8600.0,8900.0,9800.0,11000.0,11400.0,9600.0,10700.0,11200.0,12100.0,11000.0,9600.0,8300.0,8000.0,8200.0,9000.0,10100.0,10600.0,8800.0,10300.0,10900.0,11800.0,10700.0,9300.0,8100.0,7700.0,7900.0,8800.0,9800.0,10300.0,8500.0,10100.0,10600.0,11500.0,10400.0,9100.0,7900.0,7600.0,7800.0,8600.0,9500.0,10000.0,8300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2250.0,1980.0,1800.0,1656.0,1548.0,1476.0,1440.0,1476.0,1620.0,1836.0,2178.0,2340.0,2363.0,2079.0,1890.0,1739.0,1625.0,1550.0,1512.0,1550.0,1701.0,1928.0,2287.0,2457.0,2481.0,2183.0,1985.0,1826.0,1707.0,1627.0,1588.0,1627.0,1786.0,2024.0,2401.0,2580.0,2605.0,2292.0,2084.0,1917.0,1792.0,1709.0,1667.0,1709.0,1875.0,2125.0,2521.0,2709.0,2735.0,2407.0,2516.0,2717.0,2352.0,2009.0,1838.0,1794.0,1969.0,2232.0,2647.0,3072.0,3101.0,2527.0,2412.0,2114.0,1976.0,1884.0,1838.0,1884.0,2068.0,2343.0,2780.0,2986.0,3015.0,2653.0,2412.0,2219.0,2074.0,1978.0,1930.0,1978.0,2171.0,2460.0,2919.0,3136.0,3166.0,2786.0,2533.0,2330.0,2178.0,2077.0,2026.0,2077.0,2280.0,2583.0,3065.0,3293.0,3324.0,2925.0,2659.0,2447.0,2287.0,2181.0,2128.0,2181.0,2393.0,2713.0,3218.0,3457.0,3490.0,3072.0,2792.0,2569.0,2401.0,2290.0,2234.0,2290.0,2513.0,2848.0,3379.0,3630.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[18400.0,16800.0,15800.0,14500.0,13500.0,12600.0,12200.0,12700.0,13900.0,15300.0,16500.0,17800.0,19300.0,17700.0,16600.0,15300.0,14200.0,13200.0,12900.0,13400.0,14700.0,16100.0,17400.0,18300.0,20200.0,18600.0,17400.0,16000.0,14800.0,13800.0,13500.0,14000.0,15300.0,16800.0,18100.0,19100.0,21000.0,19400.0,18100.0,16700.0,15500.0,14400.0,14100.0,14600.0,16000.0,17500.0,19000.0,20000.0,24000.0,22300.0,22200.0,21900.0,20700.0,19100.0,18700.0,19300.0,20700.0,22500.0,24100.0,25900.0,27800.0,25700.0,24000.0,22900.0,21300.0,19900.0,19500.0,20200.0,21600.0,23700.0,25300.0,27300.0,27000.0,25100.0,23400.0,22200.0,20600.0,19200.0,18800.0,19500.0,21000.0,22800.0,24400.0,26200.0,27400.0,25400.0,23700.0,22500.0,20900.0,19500.0,19100.0,19800.0,21300.0,23100.0,24700.0,26500.0,29100.0,26900.0,25100.0,23700.0,22000.0,20600.0,20100.0,20900.0,22400.0,24400.0,26200.0,28200.0,30400.0,28100.0,26300.0,24800.0,23000.0,21400.0,21000.0,21800.0,23400.0,25500.0,27400.0,29500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1150.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1450.0,1550.0,1600.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1650.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1550.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1750.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1650.0,1750.0,1800.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[610.0,542.0,595.0,790.0,615.0,505.0,502.0,570.0,660.0,825.0,880.0,830.0,690.0,590.0,705.0,880.0,720.0,560.0,525.0,645.0,725.0,890.0,990.0,905.0,785.0,658.0,740.0,970.0,815.0,665.0,570.0,700.0,810.0,945.0,1045.0,1000.0,840.0,705.0,850.0,995.0,880.0,675.0,645.0,765.0,900.0,1005.0,1165.0,1040.0,855.0,725.0,995.0,1220.0,1015.0,770.0,715.0,805.0,930.0,1105.0,1275.0,1155.0,1015.0,835.0,965.0,1205.0,1030.0,815.0,735.0,855.0,990.0,1150.0,1330.0,1205.0,1040.0,880.0,995.0,1255.0,1070.0,860.0,775.0,895.0,1035.0,1205.0,1360.0,1260.0,1010.0,845.0,960.0,1220.0,1025.0,830.0,770.0,870.0,1015.0,1170.0,1335.0,1210.0,970.0,820.0,925.0,1175.0,985.0,790.0,730.0,820.0,960.0,1120.0,1270.0,1160.0,930.0,790.0,890.0,1145.0,950.0,760.0,700.0,790.0,920.0,1080.0,1220.0,1110.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[5700.0,5500.0,5100.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4900.0,5400.0,5800.0,5600.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,4400.0,4100.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4800.0,5200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,4000.0,4600.0,5000.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4300.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,4400.0,4800.0,5200.0,5400.0,5200.0,4900.0,4600.0,4300.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4800.0,5200.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4300.0,4000.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,4300.0,4700.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,4400.0,4100.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,4100.0,4500.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,4200.0,3900.0,3600.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3900.0,4300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4000.0,3700.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3800.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4100.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3600.0,4000.0,4300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3740.0,3604.0,3536.0,3400.0,3264.0,3128.0,3060.0,3128.0,3264.0,3400.0,3604.0,3740.0,3630.0,3498.0,3432.0,3300.0,3168.0,3036.0,2970.0,3036.0,3168.0,3300.0,3498.0,3630.0,3520.0,3392.0,3328.0,3200.0,3072.0,2944.0,2880.0,2944.0,3072.0,3200.0,3392.0,3520.0,3300.0,3180.0,3120.0,3000.0,2880.0,2760.0,2700.0,2760.0,2880.0,3000.0,3180.0,3300.0,3630.0,3498.0,3432.0,3300.0,3168.0,3036.0,2970.0,3036.0,3168.0,3300.0,3498.0,3630.0,3190.0,3074.0,3016.0,2900.0,2784.0,2668.0,2610.0,2668.0,2784.0,2900.0,3074.0,3190.0,2970.0,2862.0,2808.0,2700.0,2592.0,2484.0,2430.0,2484.0,2592.0,2700.0,2862.0,2970.0,2750.0,2650.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2250.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2650.0,2750.0,2420.0,2332.0,2288.0,2200.0,2112.0,2024.0,1980.0,2024.0,2112.0,2200.0,2332.0,2420.0,2090.0,2014.0,1976.0,1900.0,1824.0,1748.0,1710.0,1748.0,1824.0,1900.0,2014.0,2090.0]}},{"title":"Natural disaster","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Natural disaster\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[129313,100098,73079,75541,126847,140084,92411,82473,91091,134981,143429,112845,141137,108164,94892,74942,120765,145796,98751,94665,139166,146413,137160,100293,124773,89940,77453,73631,134515,159246,100882,103446,114515,140138,130802,102445,136398,100662,80608,65212,108695,137652,85871,74105,88536,110822,102208,81487,105340,85695,71273,61696,60150,61807,47913,51392,66356,86312,78830,77837,79414,80268,87917,61143,80057,80933,56149,62569,86563,111696,92884,81600,89653,91205,83210,63661,94987,109029,57820,56578,83280,96557,83699,71185,89086,88563,71836,51743,84673,101948,61938,65037,74624,99597,86456,70616,93099,75217,59011,59357,75700,74221,47728,55889,60658,73723,52201,37944,49795,32643,30930,32242,36270,34292,22638,23985,26651,28758,25109,19812],"flat_reference_value":16831.763692353343,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[61000.0,59000.0,68000.0,65000.0,62000.0,51000.0,47000.0,53000.0,67000.0,74000.0,69000.0,54000.0,62000.0,61000.0,69000.0,65000.0,63000.0,52000.0,49000.0,68000.0,109000.0,85000.0,71000.0,55000.0,64000.0,62000.0,69000.0,66000.0,64000.0,53000.0,50000.0,62000.0,82000.0,79000.0,72000.0,56000.0,64000.0,62000.0,70000.0,67000.0,65000.0,54000.0,50000.0,59000.0,76000.0,77000.0,71000.0,59000.0,74000.0,65000.0,72000.0,63000.0,61000.0,51000.0,50000.0,60000.0,78000.0,79000.0,72000.0,56000.0,65000.0,62000.0,69000.0,66000.0,64000.0,53000.0,55000.0,64000.0,79000.0,78000.0,71000.0,55000.0,64000.0,61000.0,68000.0,65000.0,63000.0,52000.0,50000.0,60000.0,76000.0,76000.0,69000.0,53000.0,61000.0,79000.0,69000.0,63000.0,61000.0,50000.0,49000.0,64000.0,85000.0,74000.0,67000.0,52000.0,64000.0,59000.0,65000.0,62000.0,59000.0,49000.0,48000.0,57000.0,73000.0,76000.0,65000.0,50000.0,64000.0,56000.0,65000.0,61000.0,57000.0,47000.0,46000.0,55000.0,69000.0,71000.0,62000.0,47000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[89000.0,94000.0,96000.0,98000.0,88000.0,69000.0,63000.0,75000.0,104000.0,112000.0,101000.0,79000.0,88000.0,93000.0,97000.0,92000.0,86000.0,67000.0,62000.0,84000.0,168000.0,124000.0,103000.0,80000.0,86000.0,91000.0,94000.0,90000.0,83000.0,65000.0,60000.0,73000.0,108000.0,114000.0,98000.0,76000.0,83000.0,88000.0,92000.0,89000.0,82000.0,64000.0,59000.0,71000.0,102000.0,105000.0,94000.0,74000.0,112000.0,92000.0,121000.0,116000.0,98000.0,74000.0,66000.0,79000.0,101000.0,104000.0,93000.0,75000.0,82000.0,86000.0,89000.0,85000.0,78000.0,62000.0,61000.0,72000.0,92000.0,95000.0,86000.0,69000.0,75000.0,78000.0,81000.0,76000.0,70000.0,55000.0,51000.0,61000.0,84000.0,86000.0,77000.0,60000.0,64000.0,87000.0,71000.0,65000.0,59000.0,46000.0,43000.0,52000.0,69000.0,71000.0,64000.0,50000.0,55000.0,58000.0,59000.0,56000.0,51000.0,40000.0,38000.0,45000.0,63000.0,69000.0,56000.0,44000.0,53000.0,51000.0,53000.0,50000.0,46000.0,36000.0,34000.0,40000.0,54000.0,56000.0,50000.0,39000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[42000.0,50000.0,56000.0,58000.0,48000.0,32000.0,28000.0,34000.0,52000.0,62000.0,65000.0,38000.0,44000.0,52000.0,58000.0,59000.0,50000.0,33000.0,29000.0,38000.0,82000.0,72000.0,66000.0,39000.0,45000.0,53000.0,60000.0,61000.0,51000.0,34000.0,30000.0,36000.0,56000.0,65000.0,67000.0,40000.0,46000.0,54000.0,62000.0,63000.0,52000.0,33000.0,29000.0,35000.0,58000.0,66000.0,68000.0,41000.0,52000.0,53000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,28000.0,26000.0,31000.0,48000.0,55000.0,56000.0,34000.0,38000.0,46000.0,53000.0,55000.0,46000.0,29000.0,27000.0,33000.0,50000.0,58000.0,60000.0,36000.0,40000.0,47000.0,54000.0,56000.0,47000.0,30000.0,28000.0,34000.0,51000.0,59000.0,61000.0,37000.0,41000.0,58000.0,55000.0,54000.0,45000.0,28000.0,26000.0,32000.0,47000.0,54000.0,56000.0,34000.0,38000.0,45000.0,51000.0,52000.0,43000.0,27000.0,25000.0,30000.0,46000.0,53000.0,54000.0,33000.0,36000.0,43000.0,49000.0,50000.0,41000.0,26000.0,24000.0,29000.0,44000.0,51000.0,52000.0,32000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[80000.0,89000.0,93000.0,89000.0,85000.0,68000.0,64000.0,72000.0,89000.0,93000.0,89000.0,68000.0,74000.0,82000.0,86000.0,82000.0,78000.0,62000.0,58000.0,72000.0,98000.0,88000.0,82000.0,62000.0,66000.0,73000.0,77000.0,73000.0,70000.0,56000.0,53000.0,60000.0,76000.0,79000.0,73000.0,56000.0,59000.0,65000.0,68000.0,65000.0,62000.0,50000.0,47000.0,53000.0,65000.0,68000.0,65000.0,50000.0,58000.0,58000.0,57000.0,50000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,46000.0,56000.0,59000.0,56000.0,44000.0,48000.0,52000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,40000.0,38000.0,43000.0,52000.0,55000.0,52000.0,40000.0,43000.0,47000.0,50000.0,47000.0,45000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,36000.0,42000.0,55000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,35000.0,33000.0,38000.0,46000.0,48000.0,46000.0,35000.0,38000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,42000.0,48000.0,42000.0,32000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,29000.0,27000.0,31000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,29000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[140000.0,145000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,105000.0,95000.0,105000.0,135000.0,145000.0,145000.0,115000.0,130000.0,130000.0,130000.0,115000.0,120000.0,95000.0,90000.0,115000.0,210000.0,160000.0,140000.0,105000.0,115000.0,112000.0,112000.0,105000.0,105000.0,85000.0,80000.0,88000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,88000.0,98000.0,95000.0,97000.0,90000.0,90000.0,73000.0,68000.0,72000.0,90000.0,93000.0,90000.0,73000.0,88000.0,82000.0,85000.0,90000.0,85000.0,70000.0,62000.0,62000.0,75000.0,76000.0,74000.0,62000.0,68000.0,68000.0,68000.0,62000.0,60000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,60000.0,62000.0,60000.0,50000.0,55000.0,54000.0,56000.0,51000.0,51000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,52000.0,53000.0,52000.0,43000.0,48000.0,56000.0,50000.0,45000.0,46000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,38000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,41000.0,44000.0,40000.0,34000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[108000.0,84000.0,86000.0,96000.0,114000.0,89000.0,91000.0,124000.0,116000.0,172000.0,95000.0,87000.0,104000.0,91000.0,93000.0,93000.0,96000.0,101000.0,96000.0,228000.0,545000.0,184000.0,102000.0,118000.0,106000.0,95000.0,92000.0,93000.0,134000.0,124000.0,124000.0,164000.0,248000.0,196000.0,212000.0,114000.0,106000.0,93000.0,138000.0,96000.0,98000.0,96000.0,114000.0,193000.0,176000.0,164000.0,134000.0,162000.0,258000.0,126000.0,152000.0,116000.0,104000.0,100000.0,114000.0,146000.0,174000.0,116000.0,130000.0,100000.0,114000.0,252000.0,104000.0,104000.0,106000.0,138000.0,224000.0,264000.0,184000.0,116000.0,106000.0,134000.0,198000.0,130000.0,108000.0,120000.0,106000.0,128000.0,154000.0,224000.0,284000.0,186000.0,114000.0,162000.0,154000.0,518000.0,150000.0,112000.0,130000.0,178000.0,184000.0,298000.0,294000.0,132000.0,112000.0,138000.0,214000.0,134000.0,118000.0,150000.0,164000.0,120000.0,144000.0,124000.0,298000.0,308000.0,164000.0,152000.0,388000.0,128000.0,254000.0,134000.0,130000.0,134000.0,348000.0,186000.0,142000.0,228000.0,140000.0,134000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[55893.0,50417.0,53208.0,79845.0,52110.0,49876.0,57432.0,74891.0,62954.0,82934.0,66178.0,48502.0,54820.0,49563.0,52341.0,53729.0,49812.0,51094.0,56208.0,94612.0,134876.0,69844.0,52207.0,47635.0,52844.0,47612.0,50398.0,51523.0,47936.0,53127.0,58412.0,68874.0,70953.0,87410.0,71286.0,46108.0,50872.0,45819.0,64358.0,48452.0,45987.0,47123.0,50964.0,55412.0,83145.0,54218.0,53891.0,44376.0,74823.0,43984.0,42917.0,41853.0,43209.0,45112.0,48765.0,64932.0,56874.0,53318.0,57264.0,42587.0,46532.0,61248.0,44387.0,43812.0,42195.0,43568.0,59673.0,78915.0,61427.0,49843.0,44312.0,45893.0,70418.0,40215.0,51264.0,42387.0,40132.0,48752.0,44589.0,53418.0,76284.0,48912.0,42345.0,38762.0,42984.0,121437.0,52318.0,40965.0,38942.0,39817.0,44123.0,61954.0,84312.0,54876.0,40873.0,37542.0,69852.0,35118.0,36942.0,47835.0,34876.0,35214.0,38763.0,41427.0,62894.0,57418.0,36782.0,33845.0,58126.0,31845.0,54682.0,49217.0,31764.0,32893.0,43958.0,37512.0,39674.0,37485.0,33562.0,30618.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[245000.0,215000.0,210000.0,255000.0,250000.0,268000.0,258000.0,325000.0,310000.0,330000.0,275000.0,230000.0,250000.0,228000.0,248000.0,240000.0,272000.0,292000.0,302000.0,435000.0,455000.0,355000.0,300000.0,280000.0,295000.0,245000.0,240000.0,255000.0,315000.0,335000.0,335000.0,370000.0,405000.0,365000.0,350000.0,295000.0,282000.0,255000.0,292000.0,270000.0,310000.0,300000.0,358000.0,395000.0,400000.0,370000.0,330000.0,345000.0,375000.0,275000.0,272000.0,305000.0,340000.0,355000.0,380000.0,420000.0,430000.0,395000.0,395000.0,300000.0,315000.0,340000.0,288000.0,300000.0,315000.0,385000.0,425000.0,445000.0,445000.0,370000.0,375000.0,335000.0,385000.0,318000.0,335000.0,340000.0,330000.0,385000.0,415000.0,450000.0,475000.0,445000.0,350000.0,325000.0,385000.0,455000.0,355000.0,335000.0,405000.0,425000.0,425000.0,495000.0,535000.0,470000.0,370000.0,350000.0,425000.0,330000.0,330000.0,400000.0,385000.0,415000.0,465000.0,430000.0,550000.0,520000.0,425000.0,365000.0,520000.0,375000.0,460000.0,370000.0,385000.0,430000.0,500000.0,460000.0,520000.0,460000.0,415000.0,385000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[44000.0,40000.0,42000.0,57000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,66000.0,48000.0,71000.0,50000.0,40000.0,47000.0,43000.0,45000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,45000.0,80000.0,107000.0,75000.0,45000.0,43000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,48000.0,53000.0,85000.0,63000.0,78000.0,51000.0,53000.0,48000.0,65000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,50000.0,65000.0,88000.0,55000.0,60000.0,73000.0,93000.0,52000.0,70000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,55000.0,66000.0,103000.0,76000.0,65000.0,57000.0,55000.0,69000.0,52000.0,52000.0,49000.0,49000.0,77000.0,92000.0,85000.0,57000.0,52000.0,69000.0,103000.0,57000.0,55000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,55000.0,86000.0,103000.0,71000.0,55000.0,72000.0,61000.0,255000.0,78000.0,58000.0,55000.0,55000.0,58000.0,109000.0,122000.0,99000.0,68000.0,55000.0,100000.0,64000.0,62000.0,62000.0,59000.0,59000.0,77000.0,68000.0,116000.0,128000.0,72000.0,59000.0,158000.0,72000.0,115000.0,75000.0,62000.0,62000.0,80000.0,82000.0,110000.0,97000.0,75000.0,67000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[170000.0,154000.0,151000.0,208000.0,195000.0,160000.0,144000.0,182000.0,180000.0,194000.0,180000.0,153000.0,164000.0,143000.0,165000.0,142000.0,139000.0,144000.0,163000.0,186000.0,329000.0,213000.0,159000.0,151000.0,175000.0,144000.0,151000.0,148000.0,195000.0,179000.0,154000.0,202000.0,256000.0,210000.0,190000.0,172000.0,175000.0,147000.0,215000.0,157000.0,179000.0,153000.0,162000.0,187000.0,240000.0,199000.0,190000.0,166000.0,226000.0,173000.0,181000.0,168000.0,215000.0,158000.0,203000.0,233000.0,248000.0,231000.0,211000.0,161000.0,205000.0,197000.0,165000.0,162000.0,159000.0,157000.0,217000.0,237000.0,211000.0,195000.0,195000.0,186000.0,246000.0,173000.0,161000.0,158000.0,165000.0,164000.0,178000.0,213000.0,257000.0,201000.0,191000.0,172000.0,186000.0,318000.0,191000.0,158000.0,180000.0,169000.0,173000.0,248000.0,271000.0,210000.0,171000.0,162000.0,235000.0,174000.0,151000.0,188000.0,185000.0,149000.0,194000.0,182000.0,226000.0,250000.0,175000.0,157000.0,230000.0,159000.0,216000.0,173000.0,170000.0,144000.0,189000.0,172000.0,230000.0,214000.0,190000.0,147000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[236412.0,229845.0,241902.0,263117.0,289540.0,238774.0,233209.0,302663.0,257118.0,438905.0,246530.0,241287.0,252114.0,249876.0,263045.0,258332.0,271487.0,266921.0,272410.0,561238.0,942517.0,431766.0,281204.0,274918.0,271655.0,278430.0,286112.0,281509.0,293274.0,331846.0,292058.0,305637.0,524913.0,482375.0,438290.0,283447.0,292318.0,286704.0,297551.0,301926.0,306842.0,299113.0,312476.0,438209.0,526884.0,367530.0,311245.0,435672.0,331208.0,354917.0,768430.0,528662.0,363805.0,342917.0,384229.0,642518.0,571940.0,529287.0,471356.0,386742.0,361483.0,438205.0,344916.0,333027.0,338514.0,356782.0,486914.0,634207.0,552865.0,361438.0,343926.0,492318.0,742615.0,334271.0,356908.0,332540.0,344183.0,355472.0,438926.0,574361.0,531284.0,345207.0,336815.0,327492.0,344860.0,918742.0,387519.0,342665.0,354208.0,343917.0,366431.0,579246.0,638910.0,364785.0,352640.0,345119.0,641337.0,333482.0,348276.0,366914.0,529408.0,345773.0,378252.0,356918.0,694185.0,718442.0,534671.0,356908.0,912384.0,365247.0,834519.0,362815.0,374930.0,363058.0,657246.0,386472.0,408315.0,574663.0,384219.0,376540.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[58400.0,57200.0,61000.0,78000.0,65000.0,58000.0,57500.0,60000.0,66500.0,84000.0,67500.0,61000.0,60500.0,59500.0,63000.0,63500.0,64500.0,58500.0,60000.0,84000.0,99000.0,70000.0,67500.0,62500.0,61500.0,61000.0,63500.0,65000.0,64500.0,58500.0,59500.0,63500.0,73000.0,76000.0,72000.0,67000.0,63500.0,65000.0,70000.0,67500.0,66500.0,60500.0,61500.0,65000.0,85000.0,82000.0,87000.0,69000.0,72000.0,76000.0,126000.0,161000.0,139000.0,96000.0,87000.0,98000.0,91000.0,101000.0,96000.0,89000.0,88000.0,91000.0,85000.0,84000.0,83000.0,78000.0,87000.0,97000.0,117000.0,91000.0,87000.0,83000.0,118000.0,87000.0,84000.0,88000.0,86000.0,79000.0,83000.0,84000.0,103000.0,89000.0,87000.0,84000.0,85000.0,165000.0,128000.0,93000.0,90000.0,83000.0,84000.0,86000.0,126000.0,91000.0,91000.0,87000.0,90000.0,94000.0,105000.0,94000.0,111000.0,86000.0,87000.0,91000.0,122000.0,139000.0,96000.0,91000.0,142000.0,95000.0,146000.0,100000.0,97000.0,88000.0,89000.0,92000.0,97000.0,104000.0,99000.0,94000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,23000.0,22000.0,25000.0,32000.0,36000.0,32000.0,25000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,24000.0,23000.0,27000.0,42000.0,38000.0,34000.0,26000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,23000.0,23000.0,27000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0,25000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,23000.0,22000.0,26000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,25000.0,32000.0,32000.0,36000.0,35000.0,31000.0,24000.0,22000.0,26000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,25000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,30000.0,22000.0,21000.0,26000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,24000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,29000.0,21000.0,20000.0,24000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,23000.0,29000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,20000.0,19000.0,23000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,21000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,18000.0,17000.0,21000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,19000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0,17000.0,16000.0,20000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,18000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,34000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,42000.0,46000.0,65000.0,38000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,33000.0,32000.0,35000.0,38000.0,44000.0,85000.0,160000.0,95000.0,42000.0,34000.0,35000.0,31000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,43000.0,48000.0,58000.0,105000.0,88000.0,60000.0,40000.0,37000.0,33000.0,55000.0,52000.0,42000.0,46000.0,50000.0,54000.0,105000.0,92000.0,55000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,58000.0,68000.0,115000.0,130000.0,118000.0,65000.0,47000.0,50000.0,45000.0,55000.0,56000.0,60000.0,68000.0,110000.0,92000.0,135000.0,82000.0,62000.0,52000.0,95000.0,55000.0,62000.0,66000.0,70000.0,92000.0,98000.0,100000.0,135000.0,122000.0,82000.0,60000.0,65000.0,190000.0,80000.0,72000.0,74000.0,100000.0,85000.0,125000.0,175000.0,115000.0,80000.0,66000.0,125000.0,78000.0,85000.0,75000.0,76000.0,88000.0,120000.0,98000.0,155000.0,138000.0,85000.0,68000.0,135000.0,82000.0,90000.0,82000.0,80000.0,92000.0,100000.0,108000.0,145000.0,118000.0,78000.0,65000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[14500.0,13700.0,14200.0,15500.0,14300.0,14000.0,14800.0,16600.0,17900.0,16900.0,14800.0,14200.0,15000.0,14200.0,15000.0,14700.0,15100.0,15300.0,16400.0,20500.0,24800.0,19000.0,16300.0,15900.0,15100.0,14300.0,14900.0,14500.0,14600.0,15000.0,15400.0,16300.0,20100.0,19100.0,18300.0,15400.0,14800.0,13700.0,14100.0,13900.0,14100.0,14500.0,15100.0,16900.0,17700.0,15800.0,14800.0,17100.0,18200.0,16100.0,17700.0,19300.0,17000.0,16800.0,18100.0,19900.0,22900.0,18800.0,16900.0,17500.0,16600.0,19000.0,16500.0,15900.0,15900.0,16400.0,16700.0,19600.0,20300.0,17300.0,16300.0,18700.0,17700.0,15700.0,15400.0,14900.0,15100.0,15800.0,16300.0,17400.0,19700.0,19900.0,16000.0,15400.0,16400.0,25400.0,20000.0,16600.0,16800.0,17100.0,18500.0,23100.0,27000.0,19100.0,17400.0,16600.0,22400.0,17000.0,16600.0,19900.0,18500.0,17800.0,18100.0,18900.0,24800.0,25900.0,18200.0,17100.0,22800.0,17500.0,21700.0,18100.0,17700.0,17900.0,20800.0,19500.0,19000.0,18100.0,17500.0,16900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[100000.0,95000.0,98000.0,104000.0,96000.0,93000.0,91000.0,112000.0,97000.0,116000.0,128000.0,102000.0,95000.0,90000.0,92000.0,90000.0,91000.0,90000.0,93000.0,130000.0,165000.0,120000.0,100000.0,95000.0,92000.0,88000.0,90000.0,88000.0,89000.0,87000.0,90000.0,105000.0,125000.0,98000.0,110000.0,92000.0,88000.0,84000.0,100000.0,84000.0,85000.0,84000.0,86000.0,88000.0,90000.0,85000.0,84000.0,105000.0,115000.0,90000.0,100000.0,95000.0,92000.0,90000.0,92000.0,98000.0,95000.0,92000.0,90000.0,92000.0,85000.0,105000.0,82000.0,80000.0,80000.0,82000.0,95000.0,115000.0,92000.0,85000.0,82000.0,84000.0,80000.0,78000.0,78000.0,79000.0,78000.0,80000.0,85000.0,105000.0,115000.0,88000.0,82000.0,80000.0,78000.0,110000.0,80000.0,76000.0,75000.0,76000.0,80000.0,100000.0,98000.0,80000.0,76000.0,74000.0,95000.0,72000.0,70000.0,70000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,74000.0,100000.0,105000.0,82000.0,72000.0,110000.0,66000.0,80000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,75000.0,65000.0,66000.0,85000.0,64000.0,62000.0]}},{"title":"Metric (band)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Metric (band)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[24901,27511,33477,22213,15647,15380,19360,15563,15562,13175,13115,14730,17166,13181,15031,13174,13450,13145,14602,15203,13120,13096,12451,12309,13651,13244,14563,13505,14617,13182,28149,31980,33076,21900,18345,16922,16123,19222,24037,21230,16295,14178,15248,13186,15014,13933,11986,11788,12797,12113,12455,14405,13052,11884,16034,14706,12460,12406,12422,12632,14180,13145,16114,14526,15039,22069,15633,13358,13449,12498,11687,10954,12912,12550,12372,15267,21546,19935,31345,27278,21082,26801,15256,16775,18754,17334,14769,13986,13601,20536,23244,17569,17528,24863,31013,22209,18081,13665,14761,13623,16223,13973,18133,12000,12398,12878,11997,11180,12372,13509,12615,12575,12222,16608,11493,12927,11629,13488,11657,11615],"flat_reference_value":16970.240465218543,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21500.0,20500.0,19500.0,21000.0,20500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,17500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,19000.0,18500.0,17500.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,19000.0,18500.0,19000.0,21000.0,23000.0,25000.0,38000.0,30000.0,25000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18500.0,18000.0,19000.0,17500.0,18500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,18500.0,22000.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18500.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,36000.0,27000.0,25000.0,25000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,32000.0,28000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18500.0,20000.0,18000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,19000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18500.0,18000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[31800.0,32400.0,36900.0,33500.0,30200.0,28900.0,29400.0,28600.0,27200.0,27800.0,26900.0,26500.0,27900.0,24800.0,27100.0,26200.0,26800.0,26100.0,27400.0,27900.0,29500.0,26800.0,25400.0,25100.0,26400.0,24200.0,26900.0,26500.0,28200.0,29600.0,45200.0,58400.0,67800.0,41500.0,33200.0,29800.0,29400.0,32600.0,33800.0,30900.0,28700.0,27400.0,28100.0,27800.0,26400.0,26100.0,25600.0,25200.0,26700.0,24900.0,24200.0,25800.0,27100.0,25900.0,26800.0,28900.0,27500.0,28400.0,29200.0,28600.0,29500.0,27100.0,29800.0,31200.0,35600.0,38900.0,37400.0,31800.0,27900.0,26800.0,25900.0,25400.0,26200.0,23800.0,25500.0,29400.0,28800.0,30600.0,48200.0,35400.0,33900.0,34800.0,28200.0,25600.0,25900.0,23400.0,25200.0,25800.0,27400.0,35600.0,38200.0,30400.0,31200.0,41600.0,57800.0,39400.0,29600.0,25400.0,25800.0,24600.0,24900.0,25700.0,26800.0,26200.0,23900.0,24400.0,22800.0,22100.0,22900.0,20400.0,22200.0,21800.0,22600.0,23800.0,24500.0,23900.0,21700.0,21400.0,20600.0,20200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[38400.0,35200.0,36100.0,33800.0,32900.0,34100.0,35500.0,33200.0,31800.0,30500.0,29800.0,31200.0,32100.0,29400.0,30800.0,28900.0,31200.0,30400.0,32600.0,31500.0,34800.0,31900.0,28600.0,29300.0,31100.0,30200.0,33400.0,32800.0,34500.0,41200.0,52400.0,58600.0,64200.0,48900.0,39500.0,36100.0,35400.0,34200.0,37100.0,35800.0,36900.0,34500.0,33100.0,32400.0,31200.0,29800.0,28400.0,27900.0,28500.0,27100.0,25800.0,26900.0,28100.0,29400.0,33200.0,38700.0,32100.0,28900.0,27400.0,26800.0,27500.0,25400.0,26800.0,26100.0,27200.0,28400.0,29800.0,28900.0,27300.0,26500.0,25800.0,26100.0,27400.0,26200.0,28100.0,34500.0,35200.0,38900.0,47600.0,41200.0,36100.0,33800.0,29700.0,28400.0,28100.0,26300.0,27500.0,26800.0,27400.0,26900.0,28800.0,29600.0,31200.0,39400.0,43500.0,33800.0,28900.0,26400.0,27100.0,25800.0,26300.0,25700.0,26500.0,25900.0,24800.0,24100.0,23600.0,23900.0,24500.0,23100.0,24200.0,23400.0,23800.0,24600.0,25100.0,24300.0,23500.0,22800.0,22100.0,22600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[23000.0,21500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21000.0,20500.0,20000.0,20000.0,20500.0,21000.0,20500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,25000.0,21000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,17000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,12500.0,15500.0,12000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8800.0,8300.0,8500.0,8200.0,8400.0,8300.0,8200.0,8300.0,8500.0,9000.0,11500.0,10000.0,9000.0,8200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,27000.0,29000.0,34000.0,28000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17500.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,16500.0,16500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,15500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,24000.0,21000.0,19500.0,20000.0,18500.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,20000.0,24000.0,20000.0,17500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[16000.0,15000.0,17000.0,15000.0,16000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,22000.0,20000.0,22000.0,38000.0,26000.0,20000.0,17000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,13000.0,14000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,32000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,20000.0,22000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[9500.0,8400.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,7500.0,7200.0,7600.0,8200.0,8600.0,8800.0,7200.0,8600.0,7700.0,8400.0,7900.0,8100.0,6800.0,6500.0,6900.0,7700.0,8100.0,7900.0,6400.0,8000.0,7200.0,7800.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,8500.0,9800.0,16500.0,11200.0,8900.0,7200.0,8800.0,7800.0,8400.0,8100.0,8300.0,7000.0,6700.0,7000.0,7600.0,7900.0,7700.0,6300.0,8000.0,7500.0,9500.0,10200.0,9500.0,7800.0,7200.0,7400.0,8000.0,8400.0,8200.0,6800.0,7900.0,7000.0,7800.0,7300.0,7400.0,6200.0,6000.0,6400.0,9200.0,8000.0,7700.0,6200.0,7300.0,8100.0,7700.0,7300.0,8300.0,8900.0,13500.0,9800.0,8500.0,8300.0,8000.0,6500.0,7600.0,6800.0,7400.0,7000.0,7200.0,6100.0,5900.0,6500.0,7800.0,13800.0,19200.0,12400.0,9400.0,8300.0,8600.0,7900.0,8000.0,6700.0,6400.0,6800.0,7400.0,7800.0,7600.0,6100.0,7500.0,6700.0,7200.0,6800.0,7000.0,5900.0,5700.0,6000.0,6800.0,8300.0,7200.0,5800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6200.0,5400.0,5700.0,6000.0,6700.0,7800.0,8900.0,7400.0,6200.0,5800.0,5500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4200.0,4400.0,4700.0,5200.0,5800.0,6500.0,5500.0,5000.0,5400.0,4900.0,4100.0,4400.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,6300.0,6100.0,7600.0,13500.0,11800.0,8800.0,6700.0,6300.0,5600.0,6000.0,6500.0,7100.0,7800.0,9100.0,7400.0,6300.0,6000.0,5500.0,4800.0,4700.0,4300.0,4100.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,4100.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,3700.0,4000.0,4500.0,5100.0,4500.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3600.0,4100.0,5600.0,6900.0,11200.0,9800.0,8300.0,7300.0,6300.0,5300.0,5100.0,4800.0,4900.0,5200.0,5700.0,6700.0,7400.0,6400.0,7800.0,12400.0,10300.0,8000.0,6200.0,5400.0,5500.0,5800.0,6300.0,7100.0,7900.0,6600.0,5800.0,5400.0,5000.0,4300.0,4200.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4400.0,4900.0,5400.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3300.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[6100.0,5700.0,5500.0,5300.0,5400.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,5800.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,6400.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,6200.0,7200.0,18500.0,12500.0,7600.0,5800.0,5200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,5100.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,4800.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,5200.0,4600.0,6500.0,24500.0,12500.0,7600.0,6200.0,5400.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4500.0,6200.0,6800.0,15800.0,6800.0,5200.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[5600.0,5300.0,4900.0,5400.0,5600.0,6200.0,6400.0,5900.0,5200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4600.0,4800.0,5100.0,5600.0,6000.0,5800.0,5100.0,4600.0,4300.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,5100.0,5800.0,5500.0,8200.0,7800.0,6200.0,4800.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,4500.0,4800.0,5400.0,5600.0,5300.0,4700.0,4400.0,4200.0,3700.0,4300.0,4200.0,4600.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,2800.0,2900.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,4100.0,7200.0,6800.0,6000.0,5400.0,4800.0,3600.0,4700.0,4100.0,4800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4800.0,5100.0,4900.0,4400.0,4100.0,3800.0,3300.0,2700.0,2900.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3200.0,2700.0,2500.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3500.0,4300.0,5400.0,5800.0,6400.0,5900.0,4600.0,3500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[23900.0,25000.0,27600.0,28600.0,28100.0,26000.0,23900.0,24700.0,28100.0,29100.0,28100.0,22100.0,23000.0,24000.0,26500.0,27500.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,21300.0,22100.0,23000.0,45700.0,58100.0,41400.0,30000.0,24300.0,23900.0,29800.0,29600.0,27200.0,20400.0,20700.0,21600.0,23900.0,24800.0,24300.0,22500.0,20700.0,21400.0,24300.0,25200.0,24300.0,19100.0,21200.0,22100.0,28000.0,31600.0,29800.0,25300.0,22300.0,21900.0,26000.0,27100.0,24800.0,19600.0,19800.0,20600.0,22800.0,23700.0,23200.0,21500.0,19800.0,20400.0,23200.0,24100.0,23200.0,18300.0,18900.0,19700.0,23900.0,24900.0,24300.0,20500.0,18900.0,25400.0,44200.0,59500.0,42000.0,22600.0,17900.0,18700.0,20700.0,21500.0,21100.0,19500.0,17900.0,18500.0,21100.0,28300.0,73900.0,108100.0,37400.0,28500.0,26500.0,23500.0,21000.0,18500.0,17000.0,17600.0,21000.0,21700.0,20000.0,15700.0,16100.0,16800.0,18600.0,19300.0,18900.0,17500.0,16100.0,16600.0,18900.0,19600.0,18900.0,14900.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2450.0,2350.0,2600.0,4200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2750.0,2700.0,2650.0,2550.0,2500.0,2450.0,2400.0,2300.0,2450.0,2500.0,2700.0,3900.0,3050.0,2950.0,2700.0,2600.0,2450.0,2350.0,2300.0,2200.0,2350.0,2400.0,2450.0,2500.0,2600.0,2850.0,2600.0,2450.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2350.0,2450.0,2650.0,3600.0,2950.0,2700.0,2550.0,2450.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2300.0,2100.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,2050.0,2200.0,2400.0,2900.0,2350.0,2250.0,2600.0,3800.0,3000.0,2800.0,2750.0,2850.0,2700.0,2550.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2250.0,2400.0,2450.0,2600.0,2750.0,2800.0,3050.0,2750.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2750.0,4200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3150.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2850.0,2750.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2650.0,2750.0,2900.0,3250.0,3000.0,2950.0,2850.0,2750.0,2650.0,2600.0,2650.0,2550.0,2750.0,3400.0,3150.0,3000.0,2950.0,3050.0,3150.0,2950.0,2800.0,2750.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1750.0,1800.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,1600.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,2500.0,2300.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1450.0,1700.0,2400.0,2300.0,1700.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1600.0,2300.0,2000.0,1600.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[6500.0,6100.0,3900.0,4300.0,4000.0,4500.0,4600.0,4200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2600.0,3000.0,3300.0,3100.0,3400.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,3200.0,3400.0,8800.0,12500.0,7000.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3700.0,4000.0,4200.0,3800.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3500.0,3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,3100.0,3400.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3800.0,4500.0,4800.0,5200.0,5800.0,8800.0,11500.0,8500.0,6800.0,5900.0,6500.0,5600.0,4800.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,5200.0,7200.0,9500.0,16500.0,12800.0,9800.0,8500.0,6800.0,5000.0,4200.0,3900.0,4200.0,4500.0,4100.0,3700.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3000.0,3300.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[980.0,910.0,1040.0,1010.0,1120.0,1180.0,1260.0,1210.0,1100.0,1080.0,990.0,850.0,920.0,860.0,930.0,950.0,1080.0,1130.0,1200.0,1160.0,1080.0,1020.0,940.0,820.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,960.0,1090.0,1050.0,1160.0,1390.0,2460.0,1810.0,1320.0,1010.0,940.0,870.0,930.0,950.0,1060.0,1110.0,1200.0,1140.0,1060.0,1030.0,930.0,800.0,900.0,850.0,930.0,900.0,880.0,910.0,970.0,940.0,900.0,920.0,860.0,760.0,820.0,780.0,850.0,870.0,940.0,980.0,1050.0,1010.0,960.0,930.0,860.0,760.0,850.0,810.0,900.0,930.0,1060.0,1240.0,2260.0,1740.0,1430.0,1300.0,1180.0,990.0,1050.0,980.0,1060.0,1080.0,1200.0,1260.0,1340.0,1290.0,1450.0,2290.0,1680.0,1210.0,1150.0,1070.0,1180.0,1260.0,1590.0,1790.0,1940.0,1880.0,1750.0,1620.0,1390.0,1120.0,1080.0,1010.0,1100.0,1230.0,1480.0,1580.0,1720.0,1860.0,2480.0,1970.0,1510.0,1240.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1300.0,1350.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0]}},{"title":"Smedley Butler","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Smedley Butler\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[20068,20471,22205,22807,21922,19384,20293,26936,131504,31617,28766,25315,26595,23668,20825,197425,20095,18635,20784,24109,21990,22376,20078,17937,18843,19683,19036,21887,22237,18908,21918,19956,21535,18920,31341,24759,21406,19264,27004,31073,22711,21035,25653,19907,21703,28746,25265,24043,31647,20233,20129,22918,25724,24837,27341,19618,22647,20193,34865,19057,30620,32626,27868,23859,23325,27173,25180,64800,29474,22537,25685,19976,44117,30448,31934,27812,40716,25187,27610,26223,23513,68053,52745,106586,70017,41774,44137,46289,40067,32839,39780,31850,30376,33646,30661,33026,32782,31609,30878,26475,28117,30759,46280,31375,27035,26721,28835,24012,29747,34709,41929,29795,38363,64984,32051,29105,35022,31147,34766,40882],"flat_reference_value":16917.679226304917,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[15900.0,15100.0,16200.0,15700.0,16600.0,16300.0,15400.0,16000.0,17200.0,18800.0,21800.0,17900.0,20300.0,17400.0,18200.0,17600.0,18500.0,17000.0,16200.0,17700.0,18200.0,18800.0,19400.0,17100.0,18000.0,16400.0,17800.0,17100.0,18000.0,16500.0,15800.0,16700.0,17400.0,18200.0,19000.0,16600.0,18000.0,16700.0,17900.0,17400.0,18700.0,17300.0,16600.0,17400.0,18400.0,19300.0,20100.0,17800.0,21600.0,19000.0,20500.0,21800.0,22000.0,26300.0,24100.0,23100.0,25600.0,27500.0,30200.0,24400.0,41000.0,25300.0,22800.0,21500.0,22600.0,20700.0,19800.0,25900.0,24000.0,21900.0,22500.0,19400.0,20600.0,22500.0,27300.0,23000.0,22500.0,20600.0,19500.0,21100.0,24500.0,53000.0,30500.0,22000.0,21500.0,19800.0,21300.0,20400.0,21700.0,19800.0,19100.0,20000.0,20900.0,26200.0,25100.0,21800.0,22400.0,20600.0,21800.0,21200.0,22500.0,20900.0,22100.0,22500.0,23900.0,25800.0,30400.0,23700.0,27500.0,23500.0,23400.0,22600.0,23900.0,31000.0,24900.0,22000.0,23100.0,24300.0,25900.0,21900.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[46500.0,44200.0,47800.0,45100.0,48300.0,43900.0,46200.0,47500.0,46800.0,51200.0,62400.0,49100.0,55300.0,49800.0,51400.0,48900.0,50600.0,45700.0,48200.0,52100.0,49400.0,50800.0,59600.0,47300.0,51200.0,46500.0,50900.0,48400.0,52300.0,45800.0,49100.0,47900.0,48600.0,51700.0,61200.0,48500.0,52800.0,47600.0,51900.0,49200.0,53100.0,48400.0,54600.0,51200.0,50300.0,53800.0,63500.0,50900.0,58400.0,51700.0,56200.0,59800.0,61400.0,68900.0,57600.0,58200.0,62100.0,66500.0,74800.0,69200.0,165000.0,78400.0,61200.0,56800.0,57900.0,53400.0,55100.0,58600.0,56200.0,57800.0,65400.0,55900.0,96500.0,74200.0,64800.0,57300.0,56900.0,54200.0,58100.0,56400.0,64500.0,275000.0,168000.0,145000.0,92400.0,68500.0,63200.0,58700.0,59400.0,54800.0,57200.0,55900.0,54600.0,58300.0,66100.0,56400.0,59200.0,55800.0,58400.0,56100.0,57500.0,53900.0,62400.0,57800.0,58900.0,68200.0,82500.0,71400.0,79600.0,68400.0,64200.0,59800.0,58900.0,69500.0,57400.0,55600.0,56800.0,59400.0,68200.0,57100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[38200.0,35800.0,39100.0,37400.0,41200.0,38500.0,42100.0,40300.0,39200.0,41500.0,46300.0,39800.0,42500.0,39700.0,43200.0,41100.0,44300.0,42000.0,44800.0,52400.0,46100.0,44900.0,48200.0,43600.0,45100.0,42800.0,46400.0,44700.0,48100.0,45900.0,47200.0,48300.0,46200.0,47500.0,53100.0,46800.0,48500.0,45200.0,49100.0,47300.0,51200.0,48400.0,50100.0,51800.0,49200.0,51400.0,56300.0,49800.0,64200.0,52100.0,49800.0,48200.0,53400.0,58600.0,51900.0,50700.0,50100.0,53200.0,61800.0,55400.0,146000.0,82300.0,67900.0,61800.0,61200.0,58100.0,59400.0,64500.0,60800.0,58300.0,65100.0,58900.0,59800.0,67800.0,64100.0,57900.0,59200.0,56800.0,61400.0,68200.0,88500.0,234000.0,131500.0,93800.0,71600.0,62800.0,61200.0,58400.0,59100.0,56700.0,55900.0,58100.0,55300.0,68900.0,74200.0,64800.0,62100.0,58300.0,59200.0,56100.0,58400.0,56900.0,64700.0,58200.0,56400.0,62800.0,77600.0,62100.0,64300.0,58100.0,59400.0,56800.0,58200.0,55900.0,57100.0,56200.0,55100.0,57400.0,61200.0,57800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[72000.0,68000.0,70000.0,66000.0,67000.0,60000.0,61000.0,60000.0,63000.0,66000.0,74000.0,68000.0,75000.0,72000.0,68000.0,70000.0,65000.0,58000.0,58000.0,62000.0,61000.0,63000.0,66000.0,60000.0,64000.0,60000.0,61000.0,60000.0,60000.0,54000.0,55000.0,55000.0,56000.0,58000.0,62000.0,56000.0,60000.0,57000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,52000.0,53000.0,53000.0,54000.0,56000.0,58000.0,54000.0,64000.0,56000.0,55000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,53000.0,53000.0,55000.0,58000.0,54000.0,70000.0,56000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,48000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,52000.0,48000.0,50000.0,50000.0,54000.0,48000.0,48000.0,45000.0,46000.0,46000.0,52000.0,135000.0,95000.0,62000.0,60000.0,55000.0,54000.0,50000.0,50000.0,46000.0,46000.0,46000.0,46000.0,48000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,46000.0,50000.0,56000.0,82000.0,70000.0,66000.0,60000.0,56000.0,54000.0,52000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,56000.0,52000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[70000.0,68000.0,72000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,70000.0,66000.0,64000.0,66000.0,80000.0,70000.0,80000.0,78000.0,74000.0,72000.0,72000.0,68000.0,72000.0,76000.0,72000.0,72000.0,76000.0,72000.0,76000.0,72000.0,74000.0,72000.0,74000.0,70000.0,74000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,78000.0,74000.0,80000.0,76000.0,78000.0,74000.0,78000.0,76000.0,82000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,84000.0,80000.0,100000.0,85000.0,88000.0,95000.0,95000.0,130000.0,115000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,115000.0,105000.0,190000.0,125000.0,110000.0,105000.0,105000.0,105000.0,110000.0,125000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,98000.0,105000.0,105000.0,110000.0,98000.0,95000.0,92000.0,100000.0,98000.0,110000.0,260000.0,150000.0,130000.0,115000.0,100000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,92000.0,98000.0,95000.0,90000.0,95000.0,98000.0,92000.0,95000.0,90000.0,92000.0,88000.0,90000.0,88000.0,95000.0,90000.0,86000.0,88000.0,100000.0,92000.0,105000.0,105000.0,105000.0,98000.0,95000.0,105000.0,98000.0,95000.0,95000.0,98000.0,95000.0,92000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[21000.0,21500.0,21500.0,19500.0,20500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,17000.0,26000.0,26500.0,25500.0,23000.0,23500.0,20000.0,19500.0,25000.0,23000.0,23500.0,24500.0,19000.0,23000.0,23500.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,19000.0,18500.0,18500.0,20500.0,21000.0,22000.0,17500.0,21000.0,21500.0,21000.0,19500.0,20500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,18500.0,19500.0,20500.0,16000.0,20500.0,21500.0,36000.0,31000.0,27000.0,28500.0,31000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23500.0,29500.0,21000.0,105000.0,58000.0,37000.0,27000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,21000.0,21500.0,22500.0,26000.0,19500.0,21500.0,22000.0,21500.0,19500.0,20500.0,18000.0,18500.0,18000.0,23000.0,88000.0,44000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23500.0,22500.0,20500.0,21000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,20000.0,42000.0,30000.0,20500.0,23000.0,23000.0,22500.0,20500.0,21500.0,19000.0,26000.0,20000.0,21500.0,25000.0,34000.0,22000.0,29000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22500.0,55000.0,32000.0,23500.0,23000.0,22500.0,23500.0,17500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[21400.0,20500.0,20100.0,18900.0,17600.0,15800.0,14300.0,15600.0,18600.0,23500.0,33500.0,18300.0,28500.0,25400.0,22900.0,21400.0,19800.0,17500.0,16200.0,30800.0,22100.0,23400.0,23800.0,16500.0,22800.0,21900.0,21500.0,20300.0,18700.0,16800.0,15400.0,16800.0,19800.0,22400.0,24600.0,16200.0,22600.0,21800.0,21400.0,20500.0,19200.0,17200.0,15900.0,17100.0,20300.0,22900.0,23400.0,16800.0,23800.0,23100.0,26500.0,25800.0,22600.0,24500.0,19800.0,20600.0,24800.0,29500.0,36800.0,22800.0,94200.0,54300.0,34200.0,26800.0,23800.0,21500.0,19800.0,22500.0,24600.0,26400.0,27200.0,19800.0,26100.0,24800.0,24200.0,22800.0,21100.0,18900.0,17500.0,19200.0,27500.0,65800.0,47200.0,29800.0,24500.0,23200.0,22800.0,21400.0,19800.0,17800.0,16300.0,17700.0,20800.0,23200.0,23800.0,17100.0,24800.0,23900.0,24600.0,23200.0,21800.0,19900.0,22600.0,23800.0,29400.0,46500.0,56400.0,31200.0,38400.0,30500.0,28200.0,26500.0,24800.0,22900.0,21500.0,22800.0,25900.0,27800.0,28400.0,20500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[14900.0,14200.0,13800.0,13200.0,13000.0,12400.0,12200.0,12600.0,13200.0,13800.0,16500.0,13200.0,15400.0,14700.0,14300.0,13700.0,13400.0,12900.0,12600.0,13700.0,13700.0,14300.0,14800.0,13700.0,16300.0,15500.0,15100.0,14500.0,14200.0,13600.0,13300.0,13800.0,14500.0,15100.0,15700.0,14500.0,17000.0,16300.0,15800.0,15200.0,14900.0,14300.0,14000.0,14400.0,15200.0,15800.0,16400.0,15200.0,18200.0,17300.0,16800.0,16200.0,15800.0,17500.0,14900.0,15300.0,16200.0,16800.0,20100.0,16200.0,50000.0,27500.0,19600.0,17200.0,16800.0,16100.0,15800.0,16300.0,17200.0,17900.0,18600.0,17200.0,20400.0,35000.0,30200.0,21800.0,18600.0,17000.0,16700.0,17200.0,18100.0,18900.0,19600.0,18100.0,20900.0,20000.0,19400.0,18600.0,18200.0,17500.0,17100.0,17700.0,18600.0,29000.0,26200.0,20500.0,21800.0,20800.0,20200.0,19400.0,19000.0,18200.0,17800.0,18400.0,19400.0,20200.0,24100.0,19400.0,23600.0,21500.0,20900.0,20100.0,19700.0,18900.0,18500.0,19100.0,20100.0,20900.0,21700.0,20100.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3800.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,4500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3900.0,4100.0,4700.0,4200.0,4300.0,4000.0,4200.0,3900.0,4800.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,4200.0,4400.0,5100.0,4500.0,4700.0,4400.0,4600.0,4300.0,5300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4600.0,4800.0,5600.0,4900.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,4800.0,5800.0,5000.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,5300.0,6100.0,5400.0,5900.0,5700.0,6200.0,6000.0,6900.0,7800.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,7200.0,8200.0,7700.0,160000.0,18000.0,12000.0,10000.0,11000.0,9500.0,9000.0,8800.0,9500.0,10000.0,11500.0,10500.0,12000.0,24000.0,32000.0,18000.0,14000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,11000.0,12500.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,11000.0,15000.0,13000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,13500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,12000.0,12500.0,14000.0,12500.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12500.0,13000.0,14500.0,13000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[5100.0,4750.0,9200.0,4900.0,4700.0,4500.0,5700.0,4600.0,5050.0,6900.0,11700.0,4300.0,8800.0,5050.0,5500.0,8850.0,5000.0,4750.0,6050.0,4900.0,5400.0,5300.0,9300.0,4500.0,6100.0,5500.0,6000.0,5700.0,5550.0,5200.0,8900.0,5450.0,5900.0,8350.0,21900.0,4950.0,9500.0,5450.0,7350.0,5600.0,5400.0,5150.0,6500.0,5300.0,5800.0,5650.0,9400.0,4850.0,7300.0,6750.0,11600.0,6900.0,6700.0,11400.0,17700.0,6600.0,7100.0,10500.0,15800.0,6000.0,11700.0,7150.0,7700.0,7300.0,7100.0,6700.0,8500.0,11900.0,15900.0,7450.0,12300.0,6350.0,7650.0,11400.0,14400.0,7250.0,7000.0,6600.0,8400.0,6900.0,7500.0,7300.0,12100.0,6250.0,8000.0,7350.0,11500.0,7550.0,7300.0,6900.0,8750.0,7200.0,7800.0,15200.0,14450.0,6500.0,8550.0,7850.0,8450.0,12100.0,13400.0,7350.0,14000.0,7650.0,8300.0,13000.0,18300.0,6950.0,15700.0,10900.0,8650.0,8250.0,8050.0,7550.0,12900.0,7850.0,8500.0,8350.0,12400.0,7150.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[7680.0,8240.0,8720.0,8560.0,8480.0,8570.0,6640.0,6480.0,8480.0,8880.0,10710.0,6880.0,8450.0,9060.0,9590.0,9420.0,9330.0,9420.0,7300.0,7130.0,9330.0,9770.0,10910.0,7570.0,9410.0,10090.0,10680.0,10490.0,10390.0,10500.0,8130.0,7940.0,10390.0,10880.0,16410.0,8430.0,10370.0,11120.0,11770.0,11560.0,11450.0,11570.0,8960.0,8750.0,12010.0,11990.0,13390.0,9290.0,11520.0,12360.0,15950.0,16440.0,15260.0,12850.0,9960.0,9720.0,12720.0,13320.0,16370.0,10320.0,19200.0,15270.0,14060.0,13800.0,13670.0,13820.0,10710.0,10450.0,13670.0,14320.0,16000.0,11090.0,13150.0,24690.0,29120.0,22740.0,18890.0,15650.0,11370.0,11100.0,14500.0,15210.0,17820.0,11780.0,12190.0,13080.0,13840.0,13590.0,13460.0,13600.0,10540.0,10290.0,13460.0,20450.0,19690.0,12560.0,12460.0,12760.0,13130.0,12630.0,12510.0,12640.0,9790.0,9560.0,12510.0,13100.0,16830.0,10150.0,11610.0,11540.0,12820.0,11980.0,11870.0,13710.0,10420.0,9070.0,11870.0,12430.0,13890.0,9630.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,49000.0,65000.0,76000.0,52000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,59000.0,52000.0,72000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,66000.0,78000.0,53000.0,49000.0,50000.0,51000.0,55000.0,52000.0,49000.0,47000.0,48000.0,49000.0,67000.0,80000.0,54000.0,50000.0,51000.0,52000.0,58000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,68000.0,82000.0,55000.0,51000.0,52000.0,53000.0,57000.0,53000.0,54000.0,51000.0,58000.0,61000.0,84000.0,104000.0,66000.0,58000.0,59000.0,60000.0,80000.0,65000.0,112000.0,70000.0,65000.0,62000.0,88000.0,110000.0,69000.0,61000.0,62000.0,64000.0,73000.0,66000.0,64000.0,58000.0,57000.0,58000.0,80000.0,98000.0,63000.0,58000.0,59000.0,60000.0,65000.0,61000.0,60000.0,57000.0,56000.0,57000.0,79000.0,97000.0,62000.0,58000.0,59000.0,60000.0,64000.0,60000.0,61000.0,58000.0,57000.0,58000.0,81000.0,100000.0,64000.0,59000.0,60000.0,61000.0,84000.0,69000.0,108000.0,73000.0,65000.0,66000.0,91000.0,114000.0,70000.0,63000.0,64000.0,65000.0,73000.0,67000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,23000.0,26000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0,38000.0,36000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,43000.0,48000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2530.0,2185.0,2530.0,2415.0,2185.0,2070.0,2024.0,2185.0,2576.0,2645.0,6800.0,1955.0,3840.0,2280.0,2640.0,2520.0,2280.0,2160.0,2112.0,2280.0,2688.0,2760.0,2520.0,2040.0,2750.0,2375.0,2750.0,2625.0,2375.0,2250.0,2200.0,2375.0,2800.0,3575.0,3500.0,2125.0,3080.0,2660.0,3080.0,2940.0,2660.0,2520.0,2464.0,2660.0,3136.0,3220.0,2940.0,2380.0,3740.0,3230.0,3740.0,3570.0,4830.0,4260.0,2992.0,4730.0,5008.0,6110.0,11570.0,2890.0,9690.0,3755.0,3190.0,3045.0,2755.0,2610.0,2552.0,2755.0,3248.0,3335.0,3045.0,2465.0,2860.0,2470.0,2860.0,2730.0,2470.0,2340.0,2288.0,2470.0,2912.0,2990.0,3530.0,2210.0,2640.0,2280.0,2640.0,2520.0,2280.0,2160.0,2112.0,2280.0,2688.0,2760.0,2520.0,2040.0,3300.0,2850.0,3300.0,3150.0,2850.0,2700.0,2640.0,3450.0,4760.0,5650.0,9650.0,2550.0,4640.0,2880.0,2640.0,2520.0,2280.0,2160.0,2112.0,2280.0,2688.0,2760.0,2520.0,2040.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,2100.0,2600.0,2200.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2400.0,2200.0,2500.0,2300.0,2600.0,2800.0,2600.0,2800.0,2500.0,2700.0,3000.0,3600.0,4500.0,3500.0,4200.0,3100.0,2700.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3600.0,4200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,2100.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1800.0,1850.0,2100.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1750.0,1800.0,2050.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1950.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1700.0,1750.0,2000.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1650.0,1900.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1650.0,1700.0,1950.0,1600.0,1900.0,1850.0,2300.0,2400.0,2350.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2250.0,2500.0,2150.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1950.0,2150.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1900.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1650.0,1700.0,1850.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1550.0,1700.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1700.0,1450.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1600.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1400.0,1450.0,1600.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1400.0,1300.0,1450.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1250.0,1300.0,1450.0,1250.0]}},{"title":"St John's Wood","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"St John's Wood\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[7648,7725,6740,6438,6721,6801,7100,6729,6665,6755,6717,9027,7480,7325,7562,6807,7417,7812,9174,6934,7132,6776,6742,6615,7495,6971,7081,7319,9340,7850,7929,8320,6615,6613,6480,8251,7327,7012,6796,6824,8036,11243,13539,10645,7453,7698,5948,6455,6669,5991,5740,8371,7911,6618,6830,7347,9233,9525,9907,8995,8574,7711,8048,10119,8487,8253,7846,11104,8145,7517,7596,9814,8838,6891,7314,7334,8891,11087,8886,8167,8488,7889,7177,7252,8602,7953,8102,8764,9309,11177,11593,9453,9335,8811,8626,8193,8581,7655,9405,8341,8010,8223,7982,7752,8170,6856,6941,8432,7792,6597,7130,6672,7169,7997,11930,8117,7237,6999,7008,6885],"flat_reference_value":17029.541682884803,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[10100.0,9800.0,10800.0,11000.0,11600.0,12500.0,13700.0,12900.0,11600.0,11100.0,10400.0,9700.0,10600.0,10000.0,11100.0,11400.0,11900.0,13000.0,14100.0,13200.0,12100.0,11500.0,10800.0,10100.0,11000.0,10400.0,11500.0,11700.0,12500.0,13400.0,14500.0,13700.0,12400.0,11900.0,11200.0,10400.0,11400.0,10700.0,11900.0,12200.0,12800.0,14100.0,15400.0,14600.0,13900.0,12300.0,11500.0,10800.0,11800.0,11000.0,11700.0,11300.0,11600.0,12000.0,12500.0,12300.0,11900.0,11700.0,11100.0,10600.0,11700.0,10900.0,12100.0,12300.0,12800.0,13700.0,14500.0,13900.0,12800.0,12400.0,11700.0,11000.0,12100.0,11300.0,12500.0,12800.0,13400.0,14300.0,15500.0,14700.0,13500.0,12900.0,12100.0,11300.0,12500.0,11600.0,12900.0,13200.0,13800.0,14900.0,16300.0,15200.0,13900.0,13300.0,12800.0,11600.0,12800.0,12100.0,13200.0,13500.0,14200.0,15200.0,16400.0,15500.0,14100.0,13600.0,12800.0,11900.0,13100.0,12200.0,13500.0,13800.0,14500.0,15600.0,16900.0,15800.0,14500.0,13900.0,13000.0,12200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[15800.0,14600.0,15700.0,16000.0,16900.0,17600.0,18400.0,18100.0,16600.0,15900.0,14900.0,14500.0,15900.0,14400.0,15800.0,16100.0,16800.0,17700.0,18500.0,18200.0,16500.0,15700.0,14800.0,14300.0,15600.0,14100.0,15400.0,15700.0,16600.0,17200.0,18000.0,17900.0,16200.0,15500.0,14600.0,14200.0,15500.0,14000.0,15300.0,15600.0,16700.0,17800.0,20800.0,21400.0,18600.0,16100.0,14900.0,14500.0,15600.0,14300.0,12700.0,11500.0,12300.0,13200.0,14400.0,14800.0,13900.0,13500.0,13100.0,13000.0,14400.0,13100.0,14200.0,14500.0,15100.0,15900.0,16600.0,16300.0,15000.0,14400.0,14700.0,14500.0,14600.0,13200.0,14300.0,14600.0,15400.0,16100.0,16800.0,16400.0,14900.0,14200.0,13500.0,13100.0,14200.0,12900.0,14000.0,14300.0,15200.0,16700.0,17300.0,16100.0,14600.0,13900.0,13800.0,12900.0,13600.0,12500.0,13400.0,13600.0,14400.0,15000.0,15600.0,15300.0,13900.0,13200.0,12400.0,12000.0,12700.0,11500.0,12500.0,12800.0,13500.0,14200.0,14800.0,14500.0,13100.0,12400.0,11700.0,11300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[9800.0,9200.0,10100.0,10400.0,11200.0,12000.0,12500.0,12800.0,11000.0,10500.0,9600.0,8900.0,9500.0,9100.0,10200.0,10600.0,11400.0,12100.0,12900.0,12400.0,11200.0,10400.0,9700.0,9000.0,9400.0,8900.0,9900.0,10300.0,11100.0,11800.0,12600.0,12200.0,10800.0,10100.0,9300.0,8700.0,9200.0,8800.0,9800.0,10200.0,11500.0,13200.0,16800.0,15200.0,12100.0,10500.0,9400.0,8600.0,9100.0,8700.0,8200.0,7800.0,8900.0,9400.0,9800.0,10200.0,9500.0,9100.0,8400.0,8000.0,8200.0,7900.0,8800.0,9300.0,10100.0,10800.0,11400.0,11800.0,10300.0,9600.0,8900.0,8300.0,8600.0,8200.0,9300.0,9800.0,10600.0,11500.0,12200.0,12000.0,10500.0,9800.0,9100.0,8400.0,8700.0,8300.0,9100.0,9600.0,10400.0,11900.0,12400.0,11700.0,10200.0,9500.0,8800.0,8200.0,8500.0,8100.0,8900.0,9400.0,10200.0,11100.0,11800.0,11500.0,10000.0,9300.0,8600.0,8000.0,8300.0,7900.0,8700.0,9200.0,10000.0,10900.0,11500.0,11200.0,9800.0,9100.0,8400.0,7900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[13800.0,13200.0,13900.0,13500.0,13700.0,13600.0,14600.0,14200.0,13300.0,13400.0,13000.0,12100.0,13200.0,12400.0,13000.0,12800.0,13100.0,12900.0,13800.0,13500.0,12600.0,12500.0,12200.0,11400.0,12300.0,11600.0,12100.0,11900.0,12200.0,12000.0,13000.0,12700.0,11800.0,11700.0,11400.0,10700.0,11600.0,10900.0,11400.0,11200.0,11800.0,12000.0,14200.0,12600.0,13400.0,11500.0,11000.0,10300.0,11000.0,10400.0,9800.0,9600.0,10000.0,10100.0,10500.0,10600.0,10000.0,9900.0,9800.0,9300.0,10200.0,9500.0,9700.0,9500.0,9700.0,9800.0,10300.0,10100.0,9600.0,9500.0,10400.0,9800.0,9800.0,9100.0,9400.0,9200.0,9400.0,9500.0,10000.0,9800.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,8400.0,9000.0,8400.0,8800.0,8600.0,8800.0,9000.0,9500.0,9200.0,8600.0,8500.0,8600.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,8300.0,8100.0,8300.0,8400.0,8900.0,8700.0,8100.0,8000.0,7800.0,7400.0,7900.0,7400.0,7700.0,7600.0,7800.0,7900.0,8400.0,8200.0,7600.0,7500.0,7300.0,6900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[15800.0,14900.0,15200.0,14800.0,15100.0,14900.0,15600.0,15300.0,14600.0,14800.0,14500.0,14200.0,15400.0,14000.0,14600.0,14200.0,14500.0,14300.0,14900.0,14600.0,13900.0,14000.0,13700.0,13400.0,14500.0,13200.0,13700.0,13300.0,13600.0,13400.0,13900.0,13800.0,13000.0,13100.0,12800.0,12500.0,13600.0,12400.0,12900.0,12700.0,12900.0,13200.0,14600.0,13600.0,12600.0,12500.0,12300.0,12100.0,13200.0,12200.0,12600.0,14000.0,14600.0,13400.0,13000.0,12900.0,12300.0,12400.0,12600.0,12700.0,13600.0,12500.0,12800.0,12200.0,12000.0,11700.0,11900.0,11900.0,11400.0,11600.0,12400.0,12600.0,12300.0,11100.0,11500.0,11200.0,11300.0,11200.0,11400.0,11300.0,10900.0,10900.0,10700.0,10600.0,11400.0,10400.0,10800.0,10600.0,10800.0,10900.0,11200.0,10900.0,10400.0,10500.0,10300.0,10200.0,11000.0,10200.0,10500.0,10300.0,10500.0,10400.0,10700.0,10600.0,10100.0,10200.0,10000.0,9900.0,10600.0,9700.0,10200.0,10100.0,10300.0,10200.0,10500.0,10300.0,9800.0,9900.0,9700.0,9600.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[15432.0,14665.0,16318.0,16872.0,17549.0,19236.0,20618.0,19743.0,17986.0,16422.0,15237.0,16064.0,15120.0,14487.0,15958.0,16642.0,17893.0,20145.0,21607.0,20874.0,18215.0,16778.0,15543.0,16392.0,15586.0,14921.0,16378.0,17142.0,18306.0,20654.0,22418.0,21577.0,18564.0,17065.0,15842.0,16873.0,16087.0,15312.0,17056.0,18145.0,19624.0,24132.0,27418.0,26879.0,24456.0,19532.0,18064.0,18592.0,17964.0,17028.0,13246.0,9437.0,10582.0,13064.0,16532.0,15478.0,14026.0,12845.0,11537.0,14018.0,11642.0,11073.0,12548.0,14127.0,16046.0,18524.0,19086.0,18437.0,17025.0,15486.0,16218.0,16674.0,16045.0,15513.0,16687.0,18142.0,19634.0,23548.0,22086.0,21157.0,19864.0,17563.0,17028.0,17645.0,16582.0,15846.0,17135.0,18264.0,19586.0,24612.0,27184.0,23048.0,20136.0,18052.0,19248.0,18537.0,17086.0,16532.0,17614.0,18547.0,19628.0,21584.0,21063.0,20541.0,19087.0,18124.0,17563.0,18246.0,18052.0,17634.0,18548.0,19136.0,20247.0,25184.0,23062.0,22145.0,20528.0,19134.0,18627.0,19243.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4743.0,4521.0,4388.0,4052.0,3895.0,3921.0,3712.0,3815.0,4256.0,4489.0,4370.0,3864.0,4450.0,4145.0,4280.0,3890.0,3725.0,3750.0,3540.0,3685.0,4055.0,4270.0,4180.0,3650.0,4225.0,3940.0,4030.0,3680.0,3555.0,3520.0,3360.0,3450.0,3840.0,4060.0,3965.0,3480.0,4150.0,4015.0,3975.0,3750.0,3590.0,3510.0,5985.0,4240.0,6845.0,4525.0,4020.0,3455.0,4195.0,4025.0,5020.0,4955.0,4235.0,3605.0,3505.0,3480.0,3865.0,4020.0,3985.0,3520.0,3765.0,3530.0,3605.0,3295.0,3180.0,3155.0,3010.0,3095.0,3440.0,3615.0,4395.0,3610.0,3550.0,3315.0,3385.0,3100.0,2985.0,2970.0,2845.0,2910.0,3245.0,3405.0,3330.0,2905.0,3440.0,3220.0,3280.0,3005.0,2895.0,2875.0,2750.0,2825.0,3140.0,3290.0,3885.0,2810.0,3335.0,3110.0,3185.0,2910.0,2795.0,2785.0,2660.0,2735.0,3045.0,3195.0,3125.0,2715.0,3220.0,3005.0,3075.0,2810.0,2700.0,2690.0,2575.0,2645.0,2945.0,3085.0,3020.0,2625.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[19700.0,19900.0,22400.0,24100.0,25600.0,27900.0,32100.0,30800.0,26700.0,23200.0,21400.0,19500.0,20400.0,21300.0,22800.0,25900.0,26000.0,29800.0,33500.0,31900.0,27800.0,24200.0,22300.0,20200.0,22100.0,23000.0,24800.0,27200.0,28900.0,31500.0,36200.0,34600.0,30100.0,26500.0,23500.0,22400.0,23800.0,24700.0,26700.0,29200.0,31000.0,33800.0,39100.0,41500.0,33000.0,28400.0,25500.0,23500.0,24400.0,24800.0,25200.0,17200.0,17800.0,21000.0,26500.0,28500.0,23800.0,22000.0,20600.0,19600.0,20500.0,20400.0,22500.0,23200.0,25500.0,30100.0,33800.0,32900.0,28500.0,26100.0,27200.0,23500.0,25500.0,25900.0,29100.0,31400.0,33200.0,36200.0,42000.0,39800.0,34900.0,30500.0,27100.0,25600.0,28000.0,29300.0,31400.0,34200.0,36500.0,39800.0,46100.0,43600.0,37600.0,33100.0,32600.0,28100.0,29700.0,30200.0,33300.0,36200.0,38600.0,42100.0,48900.0,46200.0,39800.0,35100.0,32000.0,30100.0,31400.0,33100.0,35200.0,38400.0,40800.0,45100.0,51400.0,48900.0,42100.0,37000.0,33600.0,31000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[7200.0,7100.0,7500.0,7900.0,8200.0,8400.0,8100.0,7800.0,7900.0,7600.0,7400.0,6800.0,7600.0,7500.0,7900.0,8300.0,8600.0,8800.0,8500.0,8200.0,8300.0,8000.0,7800.0,7200.0,8000.0,7900.0,8300.0,8700.0,9000.0,9200.0,8900.0,8600.0,8700.0,8400.0,8200.0,7600.0,8500.0,8400.0,8800.0,9200.0,9500.0,9700.0,9400.0,9100.0,12000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8200.0,8800.0,8700.0,9000.0,9200.0,9300.0,9400.0,9000.0,8700.0,8900.0,8600.0,8400.0,7800.0,8200.0,8100.0,8500.0,8900.0,9200.0,9400.0,9100.0,8800.0,9000.0,8700.0,8500.0,7900.0,8600.0,8500.0,8900.0,9300.0,9600.0,9800.0,9500.0,9200.0,9400.0,9100.0,8900.0,8300.0,9000.0,8900.0,9300.0,9700.0,10000.0,10500.0,10200.0,9800.0,10000.0,9700.0,12500.0,9500.0,9400.0,9300.0,9700.0,10100.0,10400.0,10600.0,10300.0,9900.0,10100.0,9800.0,10000.0,9200.0,9600.0,9500.0,9900.0,10300.0,10600.0,10800.0,10500.0,10100.0,10300.0,10000.0,9800.0,9000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3700.0,3500.0,4100.0,4500.0,5100.0,5600.0,6000.0,5900.0,5000.0,4500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,4200.0,4600.0,5200.0,5700.0,6200.0,6100.0,5100.0,4600.0,4100.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,4300.0,4700.0,5300.0,5900.0,6400.0,6200.0,5200.0,4700.0,4200.0,3700.0,4000.0,3800.0,4400.0,4900.0,5600.0,7200.0,11000.0,8200.0,7600.0,5100.0,4500.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,4200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,4100.0,4100.0,3600.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,3300.0,3500.0,4100.0,4900.0,5300.0,5700.0,4700.0,4200.0,3700.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,4000.0,4500.0,5200.0,5900.0,6300.0,6500.0,5300.0,4700.0,4200.0,3700.0,3600.0,3400.0,4100.0,4600.0,5400.0,7100.0,6700.0,6100.0,5200.0,4600.0,4100.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3900.0,4400.0,5100.0,5700.0,6000.0,6200.0,5200.0,4500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3800.0,4300.0,5000.0,6400.0,5900.0,5700.0,4900.0,4300.0,3800.0,3300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2200.0,2150.0,2260.0,2310.0,2400.0,2540.0,2640.0,2600.0,2400.0,2320.0,2220.0,2460.0,2500.0,2420.0,2650.0,2610.0,2720.0,2900.0,2980.0,2930.0,2720.0,2620.0,2510.0,2770.0,2990.0,2900.0,3050.0,3120.0,3240.0,3440.0,3560.0,5800.0,3260.0,3130.0,3000.0,3310.0,3670.0,3560.0,3750.0,3830.0,3980.0,4220.0,15800.0,10500.0,8200.0,3850.0,3680.0,4060.0,4450.0,4320.0,6100.0,6900.0,5800.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4800.0,4260.0,4130.0,4360.0,4460.0,4620.0,4900.0,5070.0,7800.0,4640.0,4460.0,4280.0,4720.0,4050.0,3920.0,4130.0,4210.0,4390.0,4640.0,4810.0,4720.0,4720.0,4180.0,3960.0,4150.0,3300.0,3180.0,3360.0,3420.0,3560.0,6400.0,6900.0,4200.0,3560.0,3380.0,3220.0,3500.0,2920.0,2810.0,2970.0,3030.0,3150.0,3330.0,3450.0,3380.0,4050.0,2980.0,2840.0,3120.0,2520.0,2430.0,2560.0,2610.0,2720.0,2880.0,2960.0,2900.0,2680.0,2560.0,2440.0,2650.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2460.0,2380.0,2680.0,2780.0,3010.0,3380.0,3120.0,2860.0,3180.0,3060.0,2840.0,2580.0,2600.0,2490.0,2800.0,2920.0,3160.0,6120.0,4760.0,3510.0,3340.0,3190.0,2960.0,2660.0,2720.0,2590.0,2910.0,3030.0,3280.0,3490.0,3370.0,3010.0,3350.0,3200.0,2970.0,2680.0,2860.0,2710.0,3050.0,3180.0,3440.0,3570.0,3450.0,3100.0,3440.0,3280.0,3050.0,2730.0,3050.0,2860.0,3650.0,4050.0,4080.0,3730.0,3640.0,3250.0,3610.0,3450.0,3200.0,2890.0,3090.0,2920.0,3290.0,4010.0,3650.0,3760.0,3620.0,3250.0,3600.0,3440.0,3190.0,2870.0,3220.0,3040.0,3450.0,3580.0,3890.0,6660.0,4220.0,3560.0,5920.0,3920.0,3610.0,3260.0,3330.0,3140.0,3560.0,3710.0,6550.0,4580.0,4190.0,3750.0,4140.0,3950.0,3650.0,3280.0,3400.0,3200.0,3640.0,3790.0,4140.0,4300.0,4170.0,3740.0,4140.0,3960.0,3670.0,3300.0,3440.0,3240.0,3690.0,3840.0,4180.0,4340.0,4200.0,3760.0,4160.0,3980.0,3680.0,3320.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[9500.0,9300.0,9800.0,9900.0,10200.0,10500.0,10800.0,9800.0,9900.0,10000.0,9700.0,8600.0,9600.0,9400.0,9900.0,9700.0,10100.0,10400.0,10600.0,9700.0,9800.0,9900.0,9600.0,8500.0,9400.0,9200.0,9700.0,9600.0,9900.0,10200.0,10300.0,9500.0,9600.0,9700.0,9400.0,8300.0,9300.0,9100.0,9500.0,9400.0,9800.0,10100.0,10400.0,9400.0,9400.0,9500.0,9200.0,8100.0,9000.0,8900.0,7600.0,6200.0,6600.0,7100.0,7500.0,7600.0,8000.0,8100.0,7500.0,7000.0,7400.0,7500.0,7900.0,8000.0,8300.0,8600.0,8800.0,8200.0,8400.0,8500.0,8300.0,7500.0,8300.0,8200.0,8500.0,8400.0,8600.0,8800.0,8900.0,8200.0,8300.0,8400.0,8200.0,7300.0,8100.0,8000.0,8300.0,8200.0,8400.0,8600.0,8700.0,8000.0,8100.0,8200.0,8000.0,7100.0,7900.0,7800.0,8100.0,8000.0,8200.0,8400.0,8500.0,7800.0,7900.0,8000.0,7800.0,6900.0,7700.0,7600.0,7900.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,8300.0,7600.0,7700.0,7800.0,7600.0,6700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[19000.0,16500.0,17800.0,19200.0,20100.0,21400.0,24500.0,23800.0,20500.0,19000.0,16600.0,18200.0,19550.0,17020.0,18340.0,19730.0,20750.0,22130.0,25210.0,24540.0,21120.0,19510.0,17140.0,18820.0,20080.0,17430.0,18860.0,20240.0,21210.0,22730.0,25920.0,25240.0,21630.0,20030.0,17650.0,19310.0,20550.0,17920.0,19460.0,20930.0,22080.0,23710.0,28950.0,27480.0,22620.0,20660.0,18140.0,19890.0,20990.0,18470.0,29450.0,26820.0,23780.0,19840.0,20910.0,21760.0,20230.0,19320.0,17280.0,18810.0,24830.0,21040.0,18960.0,17910.0,18680.0,20150.0,21890.0,21470.0,19040.0,18030.0,16240.0,17560.0,19520.0,17240.0,18510.0,19980.0,20960.0,22530.0,25480.0,25010.0,22960.0,20690.0,18240.0,19870.0,20430.0,18020.0,19410.0,20970.0,22140.0,23720.0,26810.0,26230.0,23040.0,21430.0,18940.0,20560.0,20930.0,18390.0,19920.0,21530.0,22690.0,24220.0,28870.0,27940.0,23620.0,21910.0,19440.0,21020.0,21340.0,18830.0,20320.0,22010.0,23320.0,24780.0,28040.0,27010.0,23920.0,22240.0,19710.0,21430.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[980.0,920.0,1050.0,1020.0,1100.0,1180.0,1320.0,1250.0,1080.0,1030.0,960.0,900.0,990.0,950.0,1080.0,1060.0,1150.0,1270.0,1580.0,1330.0,1120.0,1070.0,1000.0,930.0,1010.0,960.0,1120.0,1080.0,1180.0,1290.0,1420.0,1360.0,1140.0,1090.0,1010.0,950.0,1040.0,980.0,1150.0,1130.0,1280.0,1530.0,2160.0,1660.0,1210.0,1150.0,1050.0,970.0,1070.0,1010.0,1150.0,1080.0,1130.0,1210.0,1310.0,1260.0,1120.0,1100.0,1040.0,1000.0,1090.0,1030.0,1200.0,1160.0,1240.0,1360.0,1450.0,1370.0,1200.0,1150.0,1080.0,1020.0,1100.0,1050.0,1210.0,1180.0,1280.0,1410.0,1510.0,1420.0,1240.0,1170.0,1100.0,1040.0,1120.0,1060.0,1240.0,1220.0,1360.0,2010.0,1880.0,1490.0,1280.0,1200.0,1120.0,1060.0,1110.0,1040.0,1200.0,1170.0,1270.0,1390.0,1490.0,1400.0,1230.0,1160.0,1080.0,1010.0,1050.0,990.0,1140.0,1110.0,1210.0,1320.0,1420.0,1340.0,1180.0,1110.0,1030.0,970.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2290.0,2390.0,2600.0,2730.0,2810.0,2810.0,2910.0,2990.0,2730.0,2600.0,2470.0,2340.0,2380.0,2480.0,2700.0,2840.0,2920.0,2920.0,3020.0,3110.0,2840.0,2700.0,2570.0,2430.0,2460.0,2580.0,2800.0,2940.0,3020.0,3020.0,3140.0,3220.0,2940.0,2800.0,2660.0,2520.0,2730.0,2850.0,3100.0,3260.0,3350.0,3350.0,3470.0,4770.0,4060.0,3100.0,2950.0,2790.0,2550.0,2670.0,2950.0,3050.0,3130.0,3130.0,3250.0,3340.0,3050.0,2900.0,2760.0,2610.0,2330.0,2440.0,2650.0,2780.0,2860.0,2860.0,2970.0,3050.0,2780.0,2650.0,2520.0,2390.0,2240.0,2350.0,2550.0,2680.0,2750.0,2750.0,2860.0,2930.0,2680.0,2550.0,2420.0,2300.0,2070.0,2160.0,2350.0,2470.0,2540.0,2540.0,2630.0,2700.0,2470.0,2350.0,2230.0,2120.0,1890.0,1980.0,2150.0,2260.0,2320.0,2320.0,2410.0,2470.0,2260.0,2150.0,2040.0,1940.0,1720.0,1790.0,1950.0,2050.0,2110.0,2110.0,2180.0,2240.0,2050.0,1950.0,1850.0,1760.0]}},{"title":"Change data capture","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Change data capture\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3340,3805,3839,3517,3702,3558,3299,3579,3608,3827,4246,3309,4096,4458,4525,3686,4169,3811,3685,3955,4278,4165,4145,3303,3920,3771,4365,4284,4540,4173,4349,4595,4181,4649,4690,3907,4904,5012,5727,6454,6173,5204,6318,5274,5382,5890,6073,5382,6645,6377,6807,6556,6276,6155,6298,6108,6324,6888,6439,5781,6871,6583,8774,6933,6709,7238,6552,6131,6142,6352,5871,5360,5534,5978,6665,5631,5454,5273,5108,6572,6758,6928,6757,4926,5607,5991,7686,6215,7004,6149,6247,6169,5956,6615,6114,4968,7331,6355,6737,6509,6382,5849,6642,5455,5426,6186,5369,5566,6628,5283,4893,4307,3749,3773,3945,3948,4082,4061,4357,4490],"flat_reference_value":17065.3642711687,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[1150.0,1200.0,1350.0,1290.0,1370.0,1330.0,1260.0,1340.0,1440.0,1530.0,1490.0,1320.0,1540.0,1510.0,1690.0,1580.0,1710.0,1680.0,1570.0,1690.0,1740.0,1900.0,1850.0,1640.0,1910.0,1840.0,2050.0,1980.0,2130.0,2040.0,1980.0,2120.0,2180.0,2350.0,2260.0,2010.0,2310.0,2240.0,2400.0,2440.0,2570.0,2390.0,2470.0,2510.0,2640.0,2820.0,2670.0,2370.0,2720.0,2640.0,2850.0,2920.0,2940.0,3050.0,3030.0,3070.0,3270.0,3370.0,3250.0,2920.0,3420.0,3300.0,3670.0,3590.0,3690.0,3780.0,3540.0,3730.0,3940.0,4050.0,3960.0,3470.0,4000.0,3850.0,4290.0,4090.0,4310.0,4220.0,3960.0,4230.0,4370.0,4510.0,4460.0,3900.0,4520.0,4270.0,4700.0,4360.0,4720.0,4580.0,4320.0,4660.0,4630.0,4930.0,4790.0,4170.0,4890.0,4680.0,4870.0,5010.0,5050.0,4740.0,4770.0,4800.0,5020.0,5280.0,4960.0,4380.0,5090.0,4830.0,5150.0,5240.0,5160.0,4940.0,5040.0,4940.0,5290.0,5480.0,5100.0,4500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[9800.0,9950.0,10900.0,10500.0,10800.0,10400.0,9700.0,10100.0,10700.0,11100.0,10900.0,9100.0,10600.0,10300.0,11800.0,11100.0,11700.0,11400.0,10800.0,11200.0,11600.0,12300.0,12100.0,9900.0,11800.0,11400.0,12900.0,12600.0,13100.0,12500.0,12200.0,12600.0,13000.0,13900.0,13500.0,11100.0,13300.0,12900.0,14400.0,14200.0,14800.0,13900.0,14100.0,13800.0,14600.0,15600.0,15100.0,12600.0,14900.0,14500.0,14700.0,14400.0,15300.0,15800.0,15500.0,15200.0,16400.0,17200.0,16800.0,14300.0,16700.0,16400.0,18400.0,17900.0,18200.0,17800.0,17000.0,17400.0,18500.0,19300.0,19100.0,15800.0,18400.0,17900.0,20100.0,18900.0,19600.0,18800.0,17700.0,18500.0,19200.0,19800.0,19400.0,15600.0,18200.0,17300.0,18900.0,17100.0,17400.0,16300.0,15200.0,15600.0,15400.0,16100.0,15500.0,12700.0,14600.0,14100.0,14800.0,14300.0,14200.0,13100.0,12800.0,12500.0,13000.0,13600.0,12900.0,10600.0,12100.0,11500.0,12400.0,11900.0,11700.0,11000.0,10500.0,10300.0,10900.0,11300.0,10700.0,8900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2780.0,2950.0,3310.0,3200.0,3140.0,2980.0,2810.0,2890.0,3340.0,3480.0,3420.0,2450.0,3120.0,3350.0,3820.0,3610.0,3740.0,3490.0,3210.0,3360.0,3870.0,4120.0,4050.0,2860.0,3750.0,3980.0,4460.0,4380.0,4410.0,4150.0,3890.0,4030.0,4620.0,4910.0,4790.0,3370.0,4580.0,4820.0,5410.0,5290.0,5350.0,5020.0,4780.0,4910.0,5620.0,6050.0,5810.0,4120.0,5420.0,5890.0,5710.0,5940.0,6320.0,6280.0,5950.0,6120.0,6940.0,7250.0,7090.0,5150.0,6680.0,7120.0,7910.0,7680.0,7590.0,7210.0,6840.0,7020.0,7890.0,8320.0,8110.0,5820.0,7450.0,7830.0,8590.0,8140.0,8210.0,7630.0,7180.0,7320.0,8160.0,8470.0,8090.0,5690.0,7040.0,7290.0,7880.0,7410.0,7350.0,6890.0,6430.0,6590.0,7250.0,7560.0,7210.0,5120.0,6410.0,6680.0,7120.0,6790.0,6720.0,6230.0,5840.0,6010.0,6620.0,6890.0,6510.0,4650.0,5890.0,6120.0,6540.0,6250.0,6180.0,5740.0,5390.0,5510.0,6110.0,6370.0,6020.0,4310.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[4000.0,4080.0,4240.0,4080.0,4000.0,3840.0,3760.0,3800.0,4000.0,4160.0,4120.0,3400.0,4400.0,4488.0,4664.0,4488.0,4400.0,4224.0,4136.0,4180.0,4400.0,4576.0,4532.0,3740.0,4900.0,4998.0,5194.0,4998.0,4900.0,4704.0,4606.0,4655.0,4900.0,5096.0,5047.0,4165.0,5600.0,5712.0,5936.0,5712.0,5600.0,5376.0,5264.0,5320.0,5600.0,5824.0,5768.0,4760.0,6400.0,6528.0,6784.0,6528.0,6400.0,6144.0,6016.0,6080.0,6400.0,6656.0,6592.0,5440.0,7200.0,7344.0,7632.0,7344.0,7200.0,6912.0,6768.0,6840.0,7200.0,7488.0,7416.0,6120.0,7600.0,7752.0,8056.0,7752.0,7600.0,7296.0,7144.0,7220.0,7600.0,7904.0,7828.0,6460.0,7000.0,7140.0,7420.0,7140.0,7000.0,6720.0,6580.0,6650.0,7000.0,7280.0,7210.0,5950.0,5800.0,5916.0,6148.0,5916.0,5800.0,5568.0,5452.0,5510.0,5800.0,6032.0,5974.0,4930.0,4600.0,4692.0,4876.0,4692.0,4600.0,4416.0,4324.0,4370.0,4600.0,4784.0,4738.0,3910.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[11800.0,12000.0,12600.0,12000.0,12200.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,12200.0,12400.0,12500.0,10500.0,12500.0,12300.0,13500.0,12300.0,13000.0,12600.0,12400.0,12900.0,12700.0,13300.0,13400.0,11000.0,13500.0,13000.0,14000.0,13600.0,14000.0,13300.0,13500.0,13800.0,13400.0,14600.0,14300.0,11800.0,14500.0,14000.0,15000.0,14600.0,14800.0,14000.0,14800.0,14500.0,14800.0,15600.0,15000.0,12500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15200.0,15000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16200.0,15800.0,16200.0,16500.0,16200.0,14000.0,16500.0,16200.0,17800.0,16800.0,16800.0,17000.0,16500.0,16800.0,16800.0,16600.0,16800.0,14000.0,16000.0,15500.0,16800.0,15200.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15200.0,14800.0,14800.0,14500.0,12000.0,13800.0,13200.0,14200.0,12500.0,13000.0,12200.0,12000.0,12200.0,11500.0,11800.0,11500.0,9500.0,11000.0,10600.0,10800.0,10500.0,10400.0,9600.0,10000.0,9700.0,9600.0,9800.0,9300.0,8000.0,9000.0,8500.0,9000.0,8600.0,8500.0,8000.0,8200.0,7900.0,8000.0,8100.0,7700.0,6800.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4950.0,5210.0,5180.0,5030.0,4870.0,4610.0,4440.0,4530.0,5060.0,5300.0,5190.0,4330.0,6480.0,6720.0,6810.0,6430.0,6390.0,6010.0,5760.0,5920.0,6690.0,6890.0,6750.0,5560.0,9120.0,9350.0,9900.0,8980.0,8850.0,8370.0,7940.0,8090.0,9270.0,9580.0,9390.0,7720.0,12150.0,12480.0,12560.0,12090.0,11760.0,11140.0,10620.0,10880.0,12350.0,12740.0,12580.0,10260.0,16240.0,16610.0,17100.0,16200.0,15890.0,15120.0,14280.0,14560.0,17300.0,17020.0,16730.0,13640.0,21300.0,21870.0,22050.0,21140.0,20680.0,19730.0,18590.0,19040.0,21560.0,23100.0,21980.0,17920.0,26350.0,27020.0,27260.0,26180.0,25640.0,24380.0,23110.0,23570.0,26730.0,27640.0,27150.0,22270.0,31400.0,32180.0,32570.0,31290.0,30680.0,31800.0,27540.0,28160.0,31920.0,32910.0,32380.0,26570.0,37480.0,38560.0,38890.0,37340.0,36670.0,34760.0,32910.0,33640.0,38120.0,39270.0,38760.0,31720.0,41520.0,42680.0,43010.0,41380.0,40610.0,38480.0,36420.0,37250.0,42240.0,43490.0,42870.0,35120.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1592.0,1314.0,1618.0,1452.0,1537.0,1359.0,1284.0,1301.0,1473.0,1588.0,1439.0,1156.0,1915.0,1598.0,1874.0,1812.0,1796.0,1689.0,1542.0,1563.0,1731.0,1904.0,1748.0,1398.0,2358.0,1902.0,2381.0,2165.0,2269.0,2014.0,1968.0,1861.0,2184.0,2273.0,2198.0,1725.0,2834.0,2417.0,2859.0,2741.0,2722.0,2548.0,2351.0,2365.0,2688.0,2872.0,2641.0,2128.0,3542.0,3056.0,4451.0,4518.0,4023.0,3427.0,2958.0,2834.0,3287.0,3511.0,3254.0,2619.0,4305.0,3519.0,4358.0,3987.0,4146.0,3715.0,3592.0,3441.0,3998.0,4284.0,3952.0,3187.0,4736.0,3958.0,4695.0,4479.0,4482.0,4171.0,3878.0,3865.0,4398.0,4612.0,4435.0,3512.0,4924.0,4025.0,4978.0,4568.0,4745.0,4251.0,4109.0,3938.0,4563.0,4881.0,4521.0,3648.0,4689.0,4037.0,4632.0,4428.0,4431.0,4123.0,3832.0,3821.0,4342.0,4558.0,4385.0,3471.0,4418.0,3608.0,4459.0,4092.0,4253.0,3809.0,3682.0,3527.0,4091.0,4291.0,4128.0,3268.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2650.0,2720.0,2880.0,2810.0,2900.0,2760.0,2640.0,2700.0,2980.0,3120.0,3050.0,2580.0,3150.0,3280.0,3520.0,3450.0,3560.0,3380.0,3250.0,3300.0,3640.0,3820.0,3700.0,3120.0,3950.0,4100.0,4380.0,4300.0,4450.0,4200.0,4020.0,4120.0,4550.0,4820.0,4680.0,3980.0,5050.0,5250.0,5600.0,5500.0,5750.0,5420.0,5180.0,5300.0,5850.0,6180.0,5980.0,5050.0,6150.0,6350.0,7150.0,7250.0,7150.0,6800.0,6450.0,6550.0,7150.0,7600.0,7350.0,6250.0,7550.0,7850.0,8300.0,8450.0,8700.0,8300.0,7900.0,8050.0,8750.0,9300.0,9050.0,7850.0,9350.0,9700.0,10150.0,10300.0,10600.0,10100.0,9600.0,9750.0,10550.0,11250.0,10900.0,9400.0,10900.0,11250.0,11750.0,11950.0,12300.0,11750.0,11150.0,11300.0,12150.0,12900.0,12550.0,10950.0,11950.0,12300.0,12850.0,13050.0,13400.0,12850.0,12250.0,12400.0,13250.0,14050.0,13650.0,11950.0,12650.0,12950.0,13550.0,13750.0,14100.0,13550.0,12950.0,13100.0,13950.0,14750.0,14350.0,12550.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[560.0,585.0,610.0,575.0,545.0,520.0,490.0,505.0,555.0,590.0,570.0,465.0,675.0,690.0,710.0,665.0,640.0,615.0,580.0,600.0,660.0,700.0,680.0,555.0,780.0,800.0,820.0,775.0,745.0,710.0,670.0,690.0,760.0,805.0,785.0,640.0,940.0,960.0,985.0,930.0,895.0,850.0,805.0,825.0,965.0,970.0,945.0,770.0,1150.0,1170.0,1210.0,1140.0,1095.0,1040.0,985.0,1010.0,1125.0,1185.0,1155.0,940.0,1360.0,1385.0,1415.0,1350.0,1295.0,1230.0,1165.0,1195.0,1325.0,1395.0,1360.0,1110.0,1580.0,1600.0,1635.0,1555.0,1495.0,1420.0,1345.0,1380.0,1535.0,1610.0,1570.0,1280.0,1520.0,1540.0,1570.0,1505.0,1445.0,1375.0,1300.0,1335.0,1480.0,1555.0,1520.0,1240.0,1685.0,1705.0,1735.0,1660.0,1595.0,1515.0,1435.0,1470.0,1635.0,1715.0,1680.0,1370.0,1840.0,1860.0,1895.0,1815.0,1745.0,1660.0,1570.0,1610.0,1785.0,1875.0,1835.0,1500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[980.0,1020.0,1100.0,1080.0,1030.0,990.0,950.0,970.0,1120.0,1180.0,1100.0,950.0,1200.0,1280.0,1350.0,1320.0,1290.0,1250.0,1170.0,1200.0,1400.0,1420.0,1360.0,1180.0,1480.0,1520.0,1680.0,1580.0,1560.0,1500.0,1440.0,1520.0,1720.0,1760.0,1680.0,1470.0,1820.0,1880.0,2000.0,2020.0,1960.0,1860.0,1780.0,1840.0,2140.0,2100.0,2080.0,1820.0,2300.0,2380.0,2850.0,2750.0,2680.0,2500.0,2280.0,2400.0,2720.0,2780.0,2580.0,2320.0,2900.0,3100.0,3330.0,3260.0,3180.0,3480.0,3020.0,3050.0,3520.0,3650.0,3480.0,3050.0,3550.0,3650.0,3980.0,3950.0,3900.0,3820.0,3580.0,3740.0,4300.0,4380.0,4650.0,4050.0,4080.0,4280.0,4620.0,4550.0,4520.0,4300.0,4180.0,4220.0,4900.0,4980.0,4750.0,4150.0,4600.0,4750.0,5150.0,5100.0,5050.0,4950.0,4650.0,4780.0,5480.0,5650.0,5400.0,4720.0,4800.0,5030.0,5450.0,5430.0,5250.0,5070.0,4830.0,5050.0,5800.0,5830.0,5630.0,4900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[690.0,765.0,840.0,810.0,765.0,660.0,600.0,615.0,788.0,840.0,825.0,638.0,874.0,969.0,1064.0,1026.0,969.0,836.0,760.0,779.0,998.0,1064.0,1045.0,808.0,1104.0,1224.0,1344.0,1296.0,1224.0,1056.0,960.0,984.0,1260.0,1344.0,1320.0,1020.0,1380.0,1530.0,1680.0,1620.0,1530.0,1320.0,1200.0,1230.0,1575.0,1680.0,1650.0,1275.0,1518.0,1683.0,2310.0,2580.0,2190.0,1452.0,1320.0,1353.0,1733.0,1848.0,1815.0,1403.0,1748.0,1938.0,2128.0,2052.0,1938.0,1672.0,1520.0,1558.0,1995.0,2128.0,2090.0,1615.0,1564.0,1734.0,1904.0,1836.0,1734.0,1496.0,1360.0,1394.0,1785.0,1904.0,1777.0,1301.0,1288.0,1428.0,1568.0,1512.0,1428.0,1232.0,1120.0,1148.0,1470.0,1568.0,1540.0,1190.0,1058.0,1173.0,1288.0,1242.0,1173.0,1012.0,920.0,943.0,1208.0,1288.0,1265.0,978.0,874.0,969.0,1064.0,1026.0,969.0,836.0,760.0,779.0,998.0,1064.0,1045.0,808.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[610.0,630.0,670.0,690.0,660.0,620.0,580.0,570.0,640.0,690.0,670.0,630.0,640.0,660.0,700.0,690.0,700.0,660.0,620.0,610.0,680.0,740.0,720.0,670.0,690.0,730.0,760.0,820.0,790.0,740.0,700.0,690.0,760.0,820.0,800.0,740.0,760.0,790.0,830.0,850.0,830.0,790.0,740.0,720.0,810.0,870.0,850.0,790.0,800.0,830.0,900.0,960.0,920.0,760.0,650.0,670.0,760.0,840.0,820.0,780.0,800.0,830.0,870.0,850.0,830.0,790.0,750.0,760.0,850.0,910.0,890.0,850.0,880.0,900.0,950.0,940.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,810.0,900.0,970.0,960.0,900.0,930.0,970.0,1010.0,1000.0,980.0,930.0,880.0,900.0,990.0,1060.0,1030.0,980.0,1000.0,1040.0,1080.0,1060.0,1030.0,980.0,940.0,950.0,1040.0,1110.0,1090.0,1030.0,1060.0,1100.0,1140.0,1130.0,1100.0,1040.0,990.0,1010.0,1110.0,1180.0,1160.0,1100.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[380.0,400.0,420.0,410.0,420.0,410.0,390.0,400.0,430.0,440.0,450.0,390.0,440.0,460.0,490.0,470.0,490.0,480.0,450.0,470.0,500.0,520.0,530.0,450.0,520.0,540.0,570.0,560.0,570.0,550.0,520.0,540.0,580.0,610.0,620.0,520.0,610.0,640.0,670.0,660.0,680.0,650.0,630.0,640.0,690.0,720.0,720.0,600.0,720.0,740.0,760.0,760.0,740.0,740.0,720.0,710.0,780.0,810.0,810.0,690.0,790.0,830.0,880.0,870.0,860.0,850.0,820.0,830.0,900.0,930.0,940.0,780.0,900.0,950.0,1010.0,990.0,1000.0,990.0,930.0,950.0,1030.0,1070.0,1080.0,900.0,1050.0,1090.0,1150.0,1100.0,1130.0,1100.0,1020.0,1050.0,1120.0,1160.0,1170.0,950.0,1100.0,1140.0,1190.0,1160.0,1170.0,1080.0,1040.0,1060.0,1130.0,1170.0,1150.0,930.0,1080.0,1110.0,1150.0,1120.0,1120.0,1040.0,1000.0,1010.0,1080.0,1110.0,1090.0,890.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[362.0,342.0,333.0,317.0,301.0,291.0,285.0,298.0,342.0,349.0,358.0,282.0,463.0,439.0,426.0,406.0,385.0,373.0,365.0,381.0,439.0,447.0,459.0,361.0,588.0,556.0,541.0,515.0,489.0,473.0,463.0,484.0,556.0,567.0,582.0,458.0,735.0,696.0,676.0,644.0,611.0,592.0,579.0,605.0,696.0,709.0,728.0,572.0,904.0,856.0,832.0,792.0,752.0,728.0,712.0,744.0,856.0,872.0,896.0,704.0,1130.0,1070.0,1040.0,990.0,940.0,910.0,890.0,930.0,1070.0,1090.0,1120.0,880.0,1356.0,1284.0,1248.0,1188.0,1128.0,1092.0,1068.0,1116.0,1284.0,1308.0,1344.0,1056.0,1526.0,1445.0,1404.0,1337.0,1269.0,1229.0,1202.0,1256.0,1445.0,1472.0,1512.0,1188.0,1695.0,1605.0,1560.0,1485.0,1410.0,1365.0,1335.0,1395.0,1605.0,1635.0,1680.0,1320.0,1808.0,1712.0,1664.0,1584.0,1504.0,1456.0,1424.0,1488.0,1712.0,1744.0,1792.0,1408.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[780.0,810.0,860.0,820.0,870.0,830.0,800.0,790.0,850.0,900.0,870.0,760.0,850.0,880.0,920.0,890.0,930.0,900.0,870.0,860.0,910.0,960.0,920.0,810.0,950.0,980.0,1050.0,1010.0,1070.0,1030.0,990.0,970.0,1040.0,1100.0,1050.0,920.0,1080.0,1130.0,1200.0,1160.0,1210.0,1180.0,1120.0,1100.0,1190.0,1240.0,1170.0,1010.0,1200.0,1300.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1470.0,1420.0,1400.0,1510.0,1580.0,1490.0,1320.0,1550.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1750.0,1680.0,1600.0,1580.0,1710.0,1800.0,1680.0,1480.0,1750.0,1820.0,1950.0,1880.0,1960.0,1900.0,1800.0,1770.0,1930.0,2020.0,1900.0,1670.0,1950.0,2040.0,2200.0,2100.0,2250.0,2140.0,2030.0,1990.0,2170.0,2310.0,2150.0,1890.0,2200.0,2320.0,2450.0,2370.0,2520.0,2390.0,2280.0,2240.0,2440.0,2580.0,2410.0,2120.0,2450.0,2580.0,2750.0,2630.0,2810.0,2670.0,2520.0,2480.0,2700.0,2860.0,2660.0,2340.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2520.0,2592.0,2592.0,2448.0,2400.0,2232.0,2040.0,2040.0,2448.0,2520.0,2400.0,2112.0,3045.0,3132.0,3132.0,2958.0,2900.0,2697.0,2465.0,2465.0,2958.0,3045.0,2900.0,2552.0,3465.0,3564.0,3564.0,3366.0,3300.0,3069.0,2805.0,2805.0,3366.0,3465.0,3300.0,2904.0,3675.0,3780.0,3780.0,3570.0,3500.0,3255.0,2975.0,2975.0,3570.0,3675.0,3500.0,3080.0,4620.0,4752.0,4752.0,4488.0,4400.0,4092.0,3740.0,3740.0,4488.0,4620.0,4400.0,3872.0,5145.0,5292.0,5292.0,4998.0,4900.0,4557.0,4165.0,4165.0,4998.0,5145.0,4900.0,4312.0,5565.0,5724.0,5724.0,5406.0,5300.0,4929.0,4505.0,4505.0,5406.0,5565.0,5300.0,4664.0,5460.0,5616.0,5616.0,5304.0,5200.0,4836.0,4420.0,4420.0,5304.0,5460.0,5200.0,4576.0,5040.0,5184.0,5184.0,4896.0,4800.0,4464.0,4080.0,4080.0,4896.0,5040.0,4800.0,4224.0,4200.0,4320.0,4320.0,4080.0,4000.0,3720.0,3400.0,3400.0,4080.0,4200.0,4000.0,3520.0]}},{"title":"Two Generals' Problem","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Two Generals' Problem\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5989,5066,5963,5955,7380,5315,5219,7092,5811,6218,7200,7558,8403,7403,9196,7141,7727,12456,10083,9044,9089,9819,10484,14705,12291,7523,6137,5646,5216,4891,4556,3948,5256,5508,4675,3706,3951,3871,4851,4173,4308,3743,3556,14501,7189,6256,6707,6306,8347,7093,6320,7207,5987,6249,5176,4975,5190,7029,6090,5269,6033,6177,7922,6747,6997,5896,10105,7060,6408,6973,6733,6302,6376,6864,7392,6210,7905,5806,5164,7071,11629,6754,5761,4987,5620,4705,5972,5958,6613,6070,7257,5406,5097,5525,6587,5112,5766,5046,6026,6243,5451,5185,4234,4932,11042,6751,5666,4398,5165,4676,5979,4926,4290,4326,4293,4011,4307,5876,5084,5172],"flat_reference_value":17050.979848794515,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[5100.0,5700.0,6100.0,6500.0,6800.0,5400.0,4800.0,5100.0,6100.0,6800.0,7100.0,5900.0,5800.0,6300.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,6200.0,5700.0,6100.0,7000.0,7800.0,8300.0,7900.0,9100.0,8600.0,8800.0,9200.0,9600.0,7800.0,7000.0,7400.0,8600.0,9700.0,10200.0,8200.0,7600.0,8300.0,9100.0,9700.0,10200.0,8200.0,7400.0,7800.0,9300.0,10400.0,10900.0,8800.0,8200.0,8900.0,9700.0,10800.0,11200.0,9300.0,8500.0,9000.0,10400.0,11800.0,12300.0,10100.0,9700.0,10300.0,11400.0,12100.0,12600.0,10300.0,9200.0,9800.0,11200.0,12500.0,13200.0,10700.0,9900.0,10600.0,11600.0,12300.0,12800.0,10400.0,9300.0,9900.0,11400.0,12600.0,13000.0,10500.0,9800.0,10400.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,10100.0,9100.0,9700.0,11100.0,12300.0,12700.0,10200.0,9600.0,10200.0,11200.0,11800.0,12200.0,9800.0,8800.0,9400.0,10800.0,12000.0,12400.0,9900.0,9200.0,9900.0,10800.0,11400.0,11800.0,9500.0,8500.0,9100.0,10400.0,11600.0,12000.0,9600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[10200.0,11400.0,12100.0,11900.0,11200.0,9600.0,8900.0,9300.0,11500.0,12600.0,12400.0,10500.0,11300.0,11800.0,12900.0,12300.0,12100.0,10800.0,9900.0,10400.0,12200.0,13500.0,14800.0,18400.0,19200.0,15600.0,15100.0,14300.0,13600.0,11500.0,10900.0,11200.0,12800.0,14100.0,13700.0,11600.0,12400.0,12900.0,13800.0,13400.0,12800.0,11100.0,10800.0,64500.0,22400.0,17900.0,16500.0,13900.0,14800.0,15200.0,15900.0,16400.0,15800.0,13900.0,13100.0,13500.0,15400.0,16800.0,16200.0,14500.0,17600.0,18900.0,18400.0,17800.0,17200.0,14300.0,13200.0,13800.0,15600.0,16900.0,16500.0,14100.0,15200.0,15400.0,16100.0,15300.0,14700.0,12600.0,11800.0,12200.0,14100.0,15200.0,14800.0,12300.0,13100.0,13400.0,14200.0,13100.0,12500.0,10800.0,10100.0,10400.0,11900.0,12800.0,12300.0,10200.0,11100.0,11500.0,12100.0,11600.0,10900.0,9400.0,8900.0,9100.0,10500.0,11300.0,10800.0,9100.0,9600.0,10100.0,10700.0,10300.0,9800.0,8400.0,7900.0,8100.0,9400.0,10200.0,9700.0,8200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[9800.0,11900.0,13800.0,13500.0,11200.0,8700.0,8100.0,8900.0,12100.0,14600.0,15200.0,10400.0,10800.0,12800.0,14900.0,14200.0,12100.0,9600.0,9200.0,10500.0,14100.0,16800.0,18500.0,17200.0,19400.0,18200.0,19600.0,17800.0,14100.0,10800.0,10200.0,11100.0,14500.0,17100.0,17400.0,11900.0,11600.0,13400.0,15800.0,15200.0,12600.0,9500.0,8900.0,9700.0,13300.0,16100.0,16500.0,11200.0,11400.0,13600.0,14100.0,14800.0,12900.0,9800.0,9200.0,10100.0,13900.0,16400.0,16800.0,11700.0,12800.0,15100.0,17900.0,17200.0,15400.0,11200.0,10300.0,11100.0,14700.0,17800.0,18200.0,12400.0,11900.0,13700.0,15900.0,15300.0,12500.0,9400.0,8700.0,9500.0,13100.0,15800.0,16100.0,10900.0,11200.0,13100.0,15200.0,14600.0,11800.0,8900.0,8300.0,9100.0,12500.0,15100.0,15400.0,10400.0,10700.0,12600.0,14500.0,14100.0,11400.0,8600.0,8000.0,8800.0,12200.0,14700.0,15000.0,10100.0,10400.0,12300.0,14200.0,13800.0,11100.0,8400.0,7800.0,8600.0,11900.0,14300.0,14600.0,9800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[8400.0,9300.0,9800.0,9400.0,8900.0,7900.0,7700.0,7900.0,8900.0,9700.0,9700.0,7800.0,8700.0,9700.0,10200.0,9700.0,9300.0,8300.0,8100.0,8300.0,9300.0,10200.0,10500.0,8900.0,9400.0,9900.0,10100.0,9500.0,9000.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8900.0,9700.0,9700.0,7800.0,8100.0,8900.0,9400.0,8900.0,8500.0,7600.0,7400.0,7600.0,8500.0,9200.0,9200.0,7400.0,7800.0,8500.0,9100.0,9000.0,8400.0,7300.0,7100.0,7200.0,8000.0,8700.0,8700.0,7000.0,7300.0,8000.0,8400.0,8000.0,7600.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,7500.0,8100.0,8100.0,6600.0,6800.0,7500.0,7800.0,7400.0,7100.0,6300.0,6200.0,6300.0,7000.0,7600.0,7600.0,6100.0,6300.0,6900.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,5900.0,5700.0,5800.0,6500.0,7000.0,7000.0,5700.0,5800.0,6400.0,6600.0,6300.0,6000.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0,6000.0,6500.0,6500.0,5300.0,5300.0,5800.0,6000.0,5700.0,5400.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,5400.0,5800.0,5800.0,4700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,7500.0,7200.0,6300.0,6000.0,6100.0,7200.0,8000.0,8200.0,7000.0,7400.0,7800.0,8300.0,8000.0,7900.0,7200.0,7000.0,7300.0,8300.0,9300.0,9800.0,9500.0,11000.0,10800.0,11000.0,10500.0,10200.0,9200.0,8800.0,8700.0,9500.0,10500.0,10500.0,9000.0,9500.0,9600.0,10200.0,10000.0,9800.0,8800.0,8700.0,24000.0,14500.0,13000.0,12800.0,11000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12800.0,12500.0,11000.0,10500.0,10300.0,11200.0,12500.0,12800.0,11200.0,11800.0,11800.0,12300.0,11800.0,11500.0,10200.0,9800.0,9700.0,10500.0,11500.0,11700.0,10200.0,10500.0,10300.0,10800.0,10300.0,10200.0,9000.0,8600.0,8600.0,9400.0,10300.0,10300.0,9000.0,9500.0,9300.0,9800.0,9300.0,9200.0,8200.0,7900.0,7900.0,8600.0,9500.0,9500.0,8300.0,8800.0,8600.0,9000.0,8700.0,8600.0,7700.0,7500.0,7500.0,8200.0,9000.0,9000.0,7900.0,8300.0,8100.0,8500.0,8200.0,8100.0,7300.0,7100.0,7100.0,7700.0,8400.0,8400.0,7400.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5400.0,5700.0,6100.0,5500.0,5200.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,5900.0,6200.0,5600.0,4900.0,6300.0,6600.0,6900.0,6400.0,6000.0,5700.0,5800.0,6100.0,7000.0,7400.0,7100.0,7600.0,8400.0,7900.0,7800.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6400.0,6700.0,7600.0,7800.0,7300.0,6800.0,7100.0,7400.0,7600.0,7100.0,6800.0,6700.0,15000.0,12500.0,10500.0,9800.0,8900.0,8000.0,8600.0,8900.0,12000.0,12300.0,10400.0,9400.0,8700.0,8900.0,10100.0,9600.0,8900.0,8500.0,8700.0,9000.0,9200.0,8600.0,8200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7800.0,9100.0,8800.0,8200.0,7700.0,8000.0,8300.0,8100.0,7800.0,7500.0,7300.0,7200.0,7400.0,8900.0,8300.0,7700.0,7200.0,7400.0,7600.0,7400.0,7000.0,6800.0,6600.0,6400.0,6600.0,7400.0,7100.0,6700.0,6300.0,6600.0,6800.0,6600.0,6300.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,6000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,6200.0,6400.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,5700.0,6400.0,6200.0,5900.0,5600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1412.0,1518.0,1563.0,1449.0,1291.0,1072.0,1008.0,1085.0,1425.0,1560.0,1472.0,1018.0,1613.0,1752.0,1805.0,1659.0,1460.0,1228.0,1175.0,1256.0,1641.0,1798.0,1914.0,1658.0,2684.0,2245.0,2261.0,2083.0,1837.0,1542.0,1489.0,1573.0,2062.0,2258.0,2120.0,1445.0,1930.0,2095.0,2140.0,1976.0,1742.0,1468.0,1402.0,1495.0,1958.0,2153.0,2018.0,1362.0,2451.0,2648.0,3392.0,3325.0,2694.0,1910.0,1783.0,1902.0,2489.0,2725.0,2601.0,1748.0,3015.0,3220.0,3305.0,3712.0,3135.0,2298.0,2156.0,2304.0,3028.0,3310.0,3638.0,2115.0,2765.0,2984.0,3071.0,2839.0,2498.0,2105.0,2003.0,2142.0,2805.0,3078.0,2892.0,1964.0,2590.0,2772.0,2845.0,2628.0,2305.0,1942.0,1858.0,1975.0,2598.0,2840.0,2672.0,1810.0,2398.0,2595.0,2668.0,2462.0,2168.0,1825.0,1742.0,1856.0,2439.0,2671.0,2684.0,1702.0,2294.0,2481.0,2552.0,2358.0,2075.0,1746.0,1668.0,1779.0,2335.0,2558.0,2402.0,1635.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[88500.0,90000.0,92000.0,86000.0,83500.0,72000.0,67000.0,69500.0,83500.0,90000.0,92000.0,80500.0,95000.0,96800.0,98500.0,92500.0,89800.0,77500.0,72000.0,75000.0,90000.0,97000.0,98500.0,105000.0,112000.0,109000.0,106500.0,100000.0,97000.0,83500.0,78000.0,81000.0,97000.0,104500.0,106500.0,93000.0,108000.0,110000.0,112000.0,105000.0,102000.0,88000.0,82000.0,85000.0,102000.0,110000.0,112000.0,98000.0,117000.0,119000.0,133000.0,130000.0,121000.0,104000.0,93000.0,96000.0,110000.0,119000.0,121000.0,106000.0,124000.0,127000.0,129000.0,135000.0,127000.0,101000.0,94000.0,98000.0,117000.0,127000.0,142000.0,118000.0,127000.0,130000.0,132000.0,124000.0,120000.0,104000.0,97000.0,100000.0,120000.0,130000.0,152000.0,133000.0,121000.0,123000.0,125000.0,118000.0,114000.0,99000.0,92000.0,95000.0,114000.0,123000.0,125000.0,110000.0,124000.0,127000.0,129000.0,121000.0,117000.0,101000.0,125000.0,110000.0,117000.0,127000.0,129000.0,113000.0,111000.0,113000.0,115000.0,108000.0,105000.0,91000.0,84000.0,88000.0,105000.0,113000.0,115000.0,101000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1650.0,1550.0,1350.0,1250.0,1300.0,1700.0,1800.0,1850.0,1500.0,1650.0,1550.0,1750.0,1700.0,1600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1350.0,1750.0,1850.0,1900.0,1550.0,1750.0,1650.0,1850.0,1800.0,1700.0,1450.0,1350.0,1400.0,1850.0,1950.0,2000.0,1650.0,1850.0,1750.0,1950.0,1900.0,1800.0,1550.0,1450.0,1500.0,1950.0,2050.0,2100.0,1750.0,1950.0,1850.0,2050.0,2000.0,1900.0,1650.0,1550.0,1600.0,2100.0,2200.0,2250.0,1850.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2150.0,2050.0,1750.0,1650.0,1700.0,2250.0,2350.0,2400.0,2000.0,2250.0,2150.0,2350.0,2300.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,2400.0,2500.0,2550.0,2150.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2050.0,1950.0,2000.0,2550.0,2650.0,2700.0,2300.0,2550.0,2450.0,2650.0,2600.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2150.0,2700.0,2800.0,2850.0,2450.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2750.0,2650.0,2350.0,2250.0,2300.0,2850.0,2950.0,3000.0,2600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[798.0,865.0,934.0,882.0,795.0,602.0,545.0,670.0,891.0,960.0,921.0,652.0,842.0,907.0,983.0,931.0,834.0,628.0,571.0,708.0,934.0,998.0,1005.0,665.0,884.0,951.0,1032.0,974.0,872.0,662.0,595.0,744.0,979.0,1061.0,1018.0,718.0,928.0,995.0,1078.0,1022.0,912.0,693.0,625.0,781.0,1024.0,1087.0,1096.0,728.0,1014.0,1102.0,1225.0,1198.0,1045.0,762.0,695.0,868.0,1138.0,1205.0,1236.0,804.0,1105.0,1182.0,1280.0,1215.0,1088.0,822.0,741.0,928.0,1214.0,1288.0,1302.0,864.0,1130.0,1218.0,1315.0,1248.0,1116.0,845.0,762.0,955.0,1250.0,1325.0,1338.0,889.0,1150.0,1240.0,1338.0,1272.0,1135.0,860.0,775.0,972.0,1270.0,1350.0,1361.0,905.0,1182.0,1273.0,1375.0,1306.0,1168.0,884.0,796.0,998.0,1305.0,1385.0,1398.0,930.0,1212.0,1305.0,1410.0,1340.0,1196.0,906.0,816.0,1024.0,1338.0,1422.0,1434.0,954.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[500.0,600.0,620.0,640.0,600.0,560.0,640.0,580.0,700.0,740.0,720.0,640.0,700.0,780.0,820.0,840.0,800.0,760.0,780.0,800.0,900.0,1050.0,1300.0,1650.0,1500.0,1200.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,900.0,980.0,1020.0,980.0,900.0,950.0,1050.0,1080.0,1100.0,1020.0,950.0,930.0,980.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1150.0,1300.0,1450.0,1300.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1600.0,1850.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2400.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2300.0,2600.0,3200.0,2600.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2400.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1850.0,1900.0,2500.0,1900.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1450.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1400.0,1700.0,2000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,1850.0,1800.0,1850.0,2000.0,2300.0,2800.0,3000.0,2700.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2500.0,2100.0,2000.0,2400.0,2100.0,2200.0,1750.0,1650.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3060.0,2840.0,3370.0,3480.0,3330.0,3550.0,3120.0,3320.0,3540.0,3620.0,3390.0,2810.0,3420.0,3190.0,3690.0,3890.0,3740.0,3920.0,3450.0,4620.0,3880.0,4010.0,3760.0,3140.0,3710.0,3480.0,9200.0,4240.0,4140.0,4300.0,3820.0,4070.0,4260.0,4410.0,4100.0,3520.0,3520.0,3280.0,3800.0,3920.0,3850.0,4030.0,3600.0,3790.0,4010.0,4140.0,3880.0,3260.0,4300.0,4030.0,5260.0,5580.0,5470.0,5320.0,4650.0,4900.0,5180.0,5270.0,5050.0,4200.0,4360.0,4060.0,4720.0,4930.0,4810.0,4990.0,4390.0,4690.0,4930.0,5740.0,4850.0,4040.0,3990.0,3700.0,4320.0,4480.0,4390.0,4570.0,4020.0,4310.0,4520.0,4650.0,4440.0,3680.0,4110.0,3810.0,4460.0,4630.0,4520.0,4750.0,4180.0,4460.0,4680.0,4800.0,5540.0,3870.0,4070.0,3730.0,4430.0,4620.0,4500.0,4690.0,4960.0,4480.0,4650.0,4790.0,4560.0,3770.0,4260.0,3920.0,4670.0,4830.0,4720.0,4900.0,4330.0,4650.0,4850.0,4970.0,4780.0,4000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1550.0,1350.0,1250.0,1300.0,1500.0,1600.0,1600.0,1350.0,1550.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1650.0,1450.0,1350.0,1400.0,1650.0,1750.0,1800.0,1650.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1550.0,1450.0,1500.0,1800.0,1950.0,1900.0,1600.0,1850.0,1900.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1650.0,1550.0,1600.0,1900.0,2050.0,2000.0,1700.0,1950.0,2000.0,2050.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,1650.0,1700.0,2000.0,2150.0,2100.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,2050.0,2200.0,2150.0,1850.0,2050.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2050.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,2050.0,2200.0,2150.0,1800.0,2000.0,2050.0,2150.0,2050.0,2000.0,1750.0,1650.0,1700.0,1950.0,2100.0,2050.0,1750.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,1950.0,1900.0,1650.0,1550.0,1600.0,1850.0,1950.0,1900.0,1600.0,1750.0,1800.0,1850.0,1800.0,1750.0,1500.0,1400.0,1450.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1450.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1912.0,1597.0,2111.0,2178.0,2486.0,1212.0,959.0,1600.0,2304.0,2079.0,2393.0,1969.0,2012.0,1682.0,2221.0,2293.0,2616.0,1277.0,1009.0,1685.0,2424.0,2189.0,2518.0,2074.0,2162.0,1810.0,2386.0,2466.0,2811.0,1375.0,1084.0,1813.0,2604.0,2354.0,2706.0,2232.0,2362.0,1980.0,2606.0,2696.0,3071.0,1505.0,1184.0,1983.0,2844.0,2574.0,2956.0,2442.0,2762.0,2320.0,3266.0,3416.0,3771.0,1765.0,1384.0,2323.0,3444.0,3014.0,3456.0,2862.0,2912.0,2447.0,3211.0,3508.0,4086.0,1862.0,1459.0,2450.0,3704.0,3179.0,3793.0,3139.0,2712.0,2277.0,2991.0,3198.0,3646.0,1732.0,1359.0,2280.0,3714.0,2959.0,3543.0,2809.0,2662.0,2235.0,2936.0,3121.0,3621.0,1700.0,1334.0,2238.0,3384.0,2904.0,3431.0,2837.0,2962.0,2405.0,3156.0,3521.0,3921.0,1830.0,1434.0,2408.0,3664.0,3124.0,3881.0,2967.0,3142.0,2575.0,3496.0,3621.0,4181.0,2010.0,1534.0,2578.0,3904.0,3344.0,4081.0,3177.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1480.0,1420.0,1510.0,1450.0,1390.0,1320.0,1240.0,1290.0,1510.0,1570.0,1470.0,1180.0,1580.0,1510.0,1640.0,1570.0,1530.0,1440.0,1350.0,1400.0,1650.0,1700.0,1580.0,1270.0,1750.0,1660.0,1790.0,1720.0,1650.0,1570.0,1480.0,1530.0,1780.0,1840.0,1690.0,1380.0,1680.0,1600.0,1740.0,1660.0,1590.0,1510.0,1420.0,1470.0,1710.0,1770.0,1620.0,1320.0,1950.0,1870.0,2040.0,2150.0,2220.0,2070.0,1900.0,1980.0,2250.0,2310.0,2140.0,1740.0,2240.0,2130.0,2300.0,2220.0,2140.0,2050.0,1940.0,2010.0,2330.0,2410.0,2200.0,1810.0,2300.0,2180.0,2260.0,2190.0,2100.0,1990.0,1870.0,1940.0,2240.0,2310.0,2110.0,1710.0,2030.0,1940.0,2050.0,1980.0,1900.0,1810.0,1700.0,1760.0,2040.0,2110.0,1940.0,1580.0,2100.0,2010.0,2140.0,2060.0,1980.0,1880.0,1770.0,1830.0,2130.0,2200.0,2020.0,1640.0,1980.0,1900.0,2020.0,1950.0,1870.0,1780.0,1680.0,1730.0,2010.0,2070.0,1900.0,1540.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1575.0,1650.0,1650.0,1575.0,1500.0,1275.0,1200.0,1275.0,1575.0,1650.0,1575.0,1275.0,1523.0,1595.0,1595.0,1523.0,1450.0,1233.0,1160.0,1233.0,1523.0,1595.0,1523.0,1233.0,1418.0,1485.0,1485.0,1418.0,1350.0,1148.0,1080.0,1148.0,1418.0,1485.0,1418.0,1148.0,1313.0,1375.0,1375.0,1313.0,1250.0,1063.0,1000.0,1063.0,1313.0,1375.0,1313.0,1063.0,1313.0,1375.0,1500.0,1450.0,1300.0,1063.0,1000.0,1063.0,1313.0,1375.0,1313.0,1063.0,1208.0,1265.0,1265.0,1208.0,1150.0,978.0,920.0,978.0,1208.0,1265.0,1208.0,978.0,1103.0,1155.0,1155.0,1103.0,1050.0,893.0,840.0,893.0,1103.0,1155.0,1103.0,893.0,1029.0,1078.0,1078.0,1029.0,980.0,833.0,784.0,833.0,1029.0,1078.0,1029.0,833.0,924.0,968.0,968.0,924.0,880.0,748.0,704.0,748.0,924.0,968.0,924.0,748.0,819.0,858.0,858.0,819.0,780.0,663.0,624.0,663.0,819.0,858.0,819.0,663.0]}},{"title":"Second Temple","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Second Temple\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[25075,24277,27853,25280,23853,19496,19586,21810,22754,26693,25684,33149,31804,28773,31344,31998,32083,24176,29649,27002,25458,29017,29164,54304,35623,29187,37909,33277,32081,26925,30094,36445,30428,32245,36085,45687,36684,32317,38167,46611,34841,27895,30486,36326,31971,34274,35939,42937,39213,33781,36279,54419,43750,36130,43737,40093,37960,38660,35703,50088,36053,34273,44183,44045,117517,39414,37180,39748,34930,34759,39756,38751,34763,30544,34647,46048,35155,31191,35743,39326,33721,36236,39168,47948,41996,34818,44282,52101,37965,34215,42877,43322,39905,127727,75096,67636,49540,42874,58992,55274,44496,40063,37729,54366,40696,46896,42276,64110,45083,36394,42040,52171,42017,46301,41139,46948,44251,44838,41095,48724],"flat_reference_value":16893.93360263674,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[16400.0,15800.0,18100.0,19400.0,16900.0,15400.0,16300.0,19800.0,17300.0,18500.0,16100.0,17800.0,16900.0,16100.0,17500.0,20700.0,17400.0,15900.0,17200.0,20400.0,18800.0,19000.0,16900.0,22100.0,18300.0,16900.0,18800.0,21700.0,19200.0,16700.0,20100.0,19600.0,19800.0,18800.0,17200.0,19100.0,18200.0,17300.0,19000.0,22200.0,18700.0,17200.0,18400.0,22500.0,19300.0,20400.0,17700.0,20000.0,19000.0,17800.0,18800.0,22600.0,19400.0,18000.0,21400.0,20600.0,20200.0,20100.0,18400.0,20700.0,19500.0,18400.0,21300.0,22800.0,20900.0,18600.0,23600.0,20400.0,22000.0,20300.0,19400.0,21300.0,20100.0,18900.0,20600.0,24200.0,20500.0,19000.0,20400.0,24300.0,21300.0,22300.0,19600.0,21800.0,20700.0,19400.0,21500.0,25100.0,21300.0,19700.0,24800.0,21500.0,22400.0,32000.0,27800.0,26900.0,24200.0,22000.0,24000.0,27800.0,24000.0,21800.0,23200.0,28100.0,23400.0,26700.0,22600.0,25500.0,22800.0,21100.0,23300.0,27200.0,22900.0,21800.0,23500.0,27800.0,23800.0,25000.0,22000.0,24600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[34120.0,30450.0,36890.0,37410.0,32980.0,29640.0,31250.0,35780.0,32410.0,34620.0,32190.0,37850.0,35640.0,31280.0,36150.0,40820.0,35190.0,31420.0,35890.0,36940.0,34760.0,35410.0,34280.0,51630.0,39420.0,33850.0,42760.0,41390.0,43810.0,33540.0,40920.0,36180.0,37450.0,37890.0,36720.0,42150.0,39840.0,34910.0,39760.0,45680.0,38920.0,34850.0,37120.0,42640.0,38310.0,40590.0,37940.0,43870.0,41950.0,37420.0,45830.0,55910.0,48620.0,41350.0,46780.0,44290.0,42810.0,43650.0,42190.0,48940.0,45320.0,39180.0,47650.0,46210.0,67840.0,41920.0,46530.0,40870.0,42360.0,41290.0,42780.0,45120.0,42640.0,36890.0,40750.0,51830.0,41260.0,35940.0,38420.0,43710.0,39680.0,41150.0,38520.0,44390.0,41870.0,36140.0,41920.0,49860.0,39740.0,35610.0,44890.0,38950.0,39820.0,91450.0,68720.0,57940.0,49630.0,43580.0,48120.0,57460.0,45390.0,38740.0,40210.0,46380.0,39850.0,43920.0,39410.0,44670.0,40520.0,35180.0,39460.0,45290.0,37840.0,34920.0,36750.0,41630.0,36480.0,37910.0,35640.0,40850.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[35400.0,34100.0,37800.0,39200.0,35600.0,32100.0,34500.0,38200.0,34800.0,36900.0,35700.0,36200.0,38100.0,35400.0,39600.0,42100.0,37300.0,33900.0,36500.0,40400.0,37800.0,39100.0,38600.0,48300.0,41200.0,37900.0,42700.0,41800.0,43500.0,36100.0,41400.0,38900.0,39700.0,41500.0,40800.0,42000.0,43600.0,39800.0,44500.0,46100.0,41300.0,37200.0,40900.0,44800.0,41600.0,43100.0,42400.0,44000.0,45100.0,42300.0,48700.0,54200.0,51000.0,43600.0,46800.0,45200.0,43900.0,45700.0,46200.0,47500.0,48900.0,44100.0,49600.0,48200.0,58300.0,43800.0,47200.0,44500.0,43100.0,45600.0,44800.0,46300.0,47800.0,42900.0,46500.0,50100.0,45800.0,41200.0,43900.0,46700.0,44100.0,45900.0,44300.0,45800.0,48200.0,43600.0,47900.0,49500.0,46100.0,42000.0,47400.0,44600.0,43200.0,63400.0,58100.0,52700.0,51200.0,48900.0,66800.0,74300.0,54100.0,46500.0,48700.0,52400.0,47600.0,50300.0,48500.0,49100.0,50200.0,45800.0,51400.0,53600.0,48200.0,44100.0,47900.0,50800.0,46900.0,48700.0,47100.0,48500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,51000.0,46000.0,45000.0,52000.0,49000.0,52000.0,51000.0,55000.0,51000.0,50000.0,52000.0,53000.0,50000.0,46000.0,48000.0,50000.0,47000.0,50000.0,49000.0,60000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,50000.0,51000.0,44000.0,48000.0,44000.0,45000.0,47000.0,46000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,48000.0,45000.0,41000.0,41000.0,46000.0,43000.0,45000.0,45000.0,49000.0,46000.0,44000.0,47000.0,50000.0,46000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,47000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,44000.0,50000.0,40000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,43000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,41000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,44000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,39000.0,36000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,72000.0,58000.0,55000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,44000.0,40000.0,40000.0,45000.0,41000.0,45000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,43000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,44000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[44000.0,43000.0,46000.0,46000.0,44000.0,41000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,43000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,48000.0,48000.0,54000.0,50000.0,47000.0,51000.0,50000.0,51000.0,45000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,49000.0,49000.0,51000.0,50000.0,47000.0,50000.0,52000.0,49000.0,45000.0,46000.0,49000.0,46000.0,49000.0,49000.0,51000.0,52000.0,49000.0,53000.0,60000.0,57000.0,51000.0,55000.0,53000.0,52000.0,54000.0,54000.0,57000.0,56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,55000.0,68000.0,51000.0,53000.0,50000.0,49000.0,51000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,49000.0,52000.0,54000.0,51000.0,46000.0,47000.0,50000.0,47000.0,50000.0,50000.0,53000.0,53000.0,50000.0,53000.0,55000.0,52000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,115000.0,98000.0,80000.0,72000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0,66000.0,60000.0,61000.0,66000.0,60000.0,66000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,57000.0,60000.0,62000.0,59000.0,62000.0,57000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[29000.0,28000.0,33000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31500.0,29000.0,46000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30500.0,34000.0,29000.0,28000.0,38000.0,33000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,42000.0,29000.0,28000.0,33000.0,33000.0,29000.0,28000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31500.0,30000.0,28500.0,40000.0,29000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,29000.0,28000.0,31000.0,32500.0,31000.0,32000.0,28500.0,45000.0,29500.0,28500.0,35000.0,38000.0,30000.0,28500.0,32000.0,30500.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,43000.0,29000.0,27500.0,31000.0,34000.0,37000.0,28500.0,32000.0,29500.0,30000.0,29500.0,34000.0,36000.0,28500.0,27000.0,32000.0,36500.0,29000.0,28000.0,31000.0,31500.0,30500.0,30000.0,28000.0,40000.0,28500.0,27000.0,32000.0,35500.0,29000.0,28000.0,32500.0,29500.0,30500.0,37000.0,34000.0,44000.0,30500.0,29000.0,33500.0,36000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32000.0,31500.0,30500.0,33000.0,29500.0,45000.0,31000.0,28000.0,31000.0,33000.0,27500.0,24500.0,27000.0,26500.0,26000.0,26500.0,25000.0,37000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[31150.0,30000.0,28600.0,31900.0,27300.0,22800.0,21900.0,29100.0,26800.0,28500.0,29300.0,28600.0,30050.0,29000.0,28500.0,31500.0,26900.0,22500.0,24500.0,25700.0,26400.0,28300.0,28600.0,31500.0,29200.0,28950.0,31800.0,29200.0,30800.0,22100.0,26900.0,22400.0,26100.0,27800.0,28100.0,27700.0,28900.0,28200.0,27600.0,30450.0,26200.0,21800.0,21000.0,27800.0,25700.0,27400.0,27950.0,27300.0,28400.0,27850.0,34300.0,40400.0,31100.0,23800.0,26100.0,21700.0,28000.0,27000.0,27350.0,26800.0,28100.0,27400.0,30300.0,27900.0,30700.0,23400.0,25700.0,21400.0,25100.0,26400.0,28400.0,26400.0,27600.0,26900.0,26400.0,29000.0,25100.0,20800.0,20200.0,26500.0,24500.0,26100.0,26600.0,26000.0,27000.0,26500.0,26200.0,32800.0,24700.0,20600.0,24900.0,20700.0,24100.0,42400.0,36600.0,32000.0,30700.0,30100.0,29600.0,35000.0,27900.0,23300.0,21500.0,28200.0,26200.0,30300.0,28300.0,27700.0,28800.0,27000.0,25300.0,27600.0,23900.0,25900.0,21100.0,27700.0,23400.0,24800.0,25300.0,24700.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,55000.0,48000.0,45000.0,53000.0,54000.0,52000.0,62000.0,50000.0,54000.0,52000.0,49000.0,52000.0,62000.0,52000.0,49000.0,72000.0,57000.0,56000.0,62000.0,53000.0,70000.0,56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,64000.0,65000.0,52000.0,58000.0,54000.0,62000.0,58000.0,55000.0,60000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,70000.0,58000.0,55000.0,63000.0,62000.0,62000.0,68000.0,58000.0,64000.0,62000.0,59000.0,66000.0,72000.0,62000.0,58000.0,66000.0,63000.0,66000.0,70000.0,60000.0,66000.0,62000.0,58000.0,62000.0,72000.0,78000.0,58000.0,62000.0,60000.0,68000.0,64000.0,60000.0,64000.0,59000.0,55000.0,59000.0,68000.0,59000.0,56000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,66000.0,58000.0,62000.0,60000.0,56000.0,60000.0,70000.0,60000.0,57000.0,64000.0,62000.0,72000.0,130000.0,95000.0,78000.0,74000.0,68000.0,70000.0,82000.0,72000.0,66000.0,72000.0,70000.0,78000.0,84000.0,70000.0,74000.0,68000.0,62000.0,65000.0,74000.0,65000.0,60000.0,68000.0,66000.0,76000.0,80000.0,66000.0,70000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[21500.0,20500.0,22000.0,23500.0,21000.0,20000.0,22000.0,24500.0,23000.0,23500.0,21000.0,22000.0,22500.0,21500.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,35000.0,26000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,32000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24500.0,36000.0,23000.0,26000.0,23500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22500.0,21000.0,22000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22500.0,21500.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21500.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,23500.0,25000.0,22500.0,21500.0,21000.0,21500.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,24500.0,42000.0,24000.0,27000.0,23000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,22500.0,21500.0,23000.0,29000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,27000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,23000.0,22500.0,23500.0,30000.0,24000.0,22500.0,24000.0,23500.0,24000.0,65000.0,55000.0,45000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,48000.0,42000.0,50000.0,43000.0,40000.0,38000.0,35000.0,36000.0,42000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,42000.0,37000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[35800.0,33400.0,36800.0,39200.0,33900.0,31200.0,34600.0,38100.0,37500.0,36800.0,33700.0,37200.0,35200.0,32800.0,35200.0,38300.0,36800.0,30800.0,33800.0,37200.0,38100.0,36400.0,32900.0,34400.0,34800.0,32100.0,37400.0,37100.0,37500.0,30200.0,35800.0,34200.0,38400.0,35500.0,32200.0,33900.0,33600.0,31200.0,33900.0,36900.0,31800.0,29400.0,33300.0,37100.0,37200.0,34700.0,31400.0,33100.0,34400.0,31900.0,35600.0,36500.0,32800.0,30100.0,35200.0,34100.0,36800.0,35200.0,31800.0,33400.0,33100.0,30700.0,34800.0,35200.0,49200.0,37100.0,34300.0,31900.0,36100.0,34600.0,30800.0,32400.0,32100.0,29800.0,31800.0,37800.0,30200.0,27900.0,29800.0,33700.0,35400.0,33800.0,29600.0,31100.0,33800.0,29200.0,31900.0,34600.0,29800.0,27400.0,32600.0,31300.0,34800.0,57400.0,60500.0,52000.0,42000.0,38500.0,41000.0,43500.0,39800.0,36800.0,38400.0,42200.0,44200.0,45800.0,39500.0,41500.0,40800.0,37200.0,38800.0,42200.0,37600.0,43800.0,39800.0,42200.0,43300.0,44500.0,38400.0,40300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[55000.0,58000.0,67000.0,78000.0,58000.0,55000.0,58000.0,64000.0,61000.0,64000.0,58000.0,99000.0,64000.0,61000.0,61000.0,85000.0,61000.0,58000.0,104000.0,64000.0,67000.0,64000.0,61000.0,122000.0,60000.0,63000.0,82000.0,69000.0,85000.0,60000.0,69000.0,63000.0,69000.0,63000.0,63000.0,107000.0,63000.0,66000.0,66000.0,92000.0,66000.0,63000.0,66000.0,73000.0,69000.0,73000.0,66000.0,112000.0,67000.0,70000.0,91000.0,125000.0,80000.0,67000.0,77000.0,70000.0,77000.0,70000.0,70000.0,119000.0,69000.0,73000.0,95000.0,84000.0,140000.0,69000.0,80000.0,73000.0,80000.0,73000.0,95000.0,110000.0,67000.0,71000.0,71000.0,100000.0,71000.0,67000.0,71000.0,82000.0,78000.0,75000.0,71000.0,120000.0,70000.0,74000.0,74000.0,110000.0,74000.0,70000.0,81000.0,74000.0,81000.0,340000.0,260000.0,350000.0,109000.0,115000.0,144000.0,161000.0,125000.0,109000.0,125000.0,125000.0,120000.0,138000.0,120000.0,200000.0,115000.0,121000.0,121000.0,154000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,121000.0,121000.0,125000.0,110000.0,187000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4200.0,4300.0,4600.0,5000.0,4450.0,4050.0,3850.0,4050.0,4500.0,5600.0,4650.0,5100.0,4400.0,4500.0,4800.0,5200.0,4650.0,4250.0,4050.0,4250.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,5350.0,4600.0,4700.0,5050.0,5450.0,4900.0,4650.0,4230.0,4400.0,4900.0,5200.0,5100.0,5550.0,4800.0,4900.0,5650.0,5700.0,5050.0,4600.0,4400.0,4600.0,5100.0,5400.0,5300.0,5800.0,5150.0,5250.0,6300.0,7000.0,5800.0,4950.0,4750.0,4950.0,5450.0,5800.0,5650.0,6200.0,5300.0,5400.0,5800.0,6250.0,5550.0,5100.0,4850.0,5500.0,6050.0,5950.0,5850.0,6400.0,5100.0,5200.0,6100.0,6950.0,6700.0,5850.0,4680.0,4900.0,5400.0,5700.0,5600.0,6150.0,4650.0,4750.0,5100.0,6050.0,4900.0,5000.0,4275.0,4450.0,4950.0,6550.0,6400.0,7000.0,5200.0,4900.0,5600.0,6150.0,5050.0,5150.0,4410.0,4600.0,5100.0,6450.0,6350.0,6950.0,4750.0,4850.0,5200.0,5600.0,5000.0,5950.0,4350.0,4550.0,5050.0,5750.0,5650.0,6200.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,42000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,40000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,43000.0,43000.0,45000.0,45000.0,42000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,40000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,43000.0,45000.0,44000.0,41000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,43000.0,40000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,41000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,40000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,37000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,36000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,35000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,35000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,34000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,35000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,33000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[11450.0,9380.0,9920.0,10640.0,10190.0,8620.0,11260.0,12480.0,10730.0,12250.0,10960.0,14120.0,12640.0,9250.0,10180.0,10820.0,11140.0,9080.0,11720.0,13380.0,11040.0,12630.0,11370.0,14280.0,12050.0,9670.0,10340.0,11050.0,21760.0,14390.0,11580.0,13720.0,11830.0,12910.0,11260.0,15490.0,12670.0,9940.0,11090.0,12460.0,12050.0,10280.0,12310.0,14830.0,12120.0,13680.0,12290.0,15520.0,14260.0,11340.0,14470.0,21580.0,16820.0,13490.0,15360.0,17480.0,16290.0,18740.0,13680.0,20610.0,15930.0,12780.0,14390.0,17210.0,34920.0,20870.0,16450.0,18390.0,17280.0,19120.0,14790.0,22760.0,15140.0,12380.0,13690.0,17260.0,18490.0,13540.0,15360.0,18630.0,16550.0,19280.0,14290.0,20860.0,15820.0,12730.0,14490.0,17710.0,19620.0,14680.0,16740.0,20490.0,18530.0,36740.0,22080.0,27350.0,21180.0,17260.0,19390.0,30170.0,25390.0,19930.0,17220.0,22740.0,21080.0,24890.0,18930.0,23740.0,27820.0,19870.0,21530.0,29270.0,24150.0,20830.0,18050.0,23390.0,21390.0,25080.0,21840.0,27030.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,5900.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,5500.0,5700.0,5500.0,5200.0,4900.0,5300.0,5100.0,5800.0,6100.0,5600.0,5400.0,7600.0,5900.0,6000.0,5700.0,5400.0,5100.0,5500.0,5300.0,6100.0,6400.0,5800.0,5500.0,5700.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,5500.0,5200.0,5700.0,5500.0,6300.0,6600.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,6100.0,6300.0,6000.0,5700.0,5400.0,6000.0,5900.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,6600.0,6800.0,7000.0,7200.0,6800.0,6400.0,6200.0,6700.0,6500.0,7400.0,7600.0,10200.0,7500.0,7300.0,7500.0,7700.0,7400.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,6800.0,7700.0,8000.0,7600.0,7300.0,7500.0,7800.0,8000.0,7700.0,7400.0,7100.0,7400.0,7200.0,8200.0,8500.0,8000.0,7700.0,7900.0,8200.0,8500.0,15600.0,13900.0,12000.0,11000.0,10200.0,11600.0,12200.0,11800.0,11000.0,11200.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,11500.0,10800.0,10000.0,9600.0,10800.0,11200.0,10600.0,9900.0,10200.0,10500.0,11000.0,10800.0,10100.0,9500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2400.0,2350.0,2500.0,2450.0,2300.0,2150.0,2050.0,2300.0,2400.0,2450.0,2350.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2100.0,2500.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2100.0,2050.0,2050.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,2050.0,2100.0,2150.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2250.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2350.0,2250.0,2150.0,2000.0,2000.0,2150.0,2250.0,2600.0,2150.0,2050.0,2050.0,2100.0,2150.0,2050.0,1950.0,1900.0,1900.0,2050.0,2000.0,1950.0,1850.0,1850.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1800.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1800.0,1850.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1850.0,1850.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,1850.0,1750.0,1650.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1650.0,1550.0,1450.0]}},{"title":"List of governors of Virginia","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"List of governors of Virginia\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[10,11,8,6,9,6,10,12,8,14,108,62,53,33,39,38,43,33,33,24,21,26,48,32,29,23,33,20,16,28,21,27,10,26,17,19,24,22,24,68,2406,4188,4589,4886,5427,6613,11387,6773,9072,8225,9064,12545,10521,12227,9984,10502,10609,12128,13817,12091,10327,8763,9824,12952,13391,12229,7168,7198,10101,31637,101178,7651,19866,6671,5688,5274,5696,6241,6305,5502,5727,6081,8408,5376,5936,5259,5763,5639,5498,5821,6198,6193,5228,4696,8544,4809,5865,5572,5509,5151,5355,6686,8272,7588,8847,8092,10139,5353,7094,6170,6382,6544,6421,6752,6051,6762,8343,11574,63364,6892],"flat_reference_value":17200.61540011773,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[4700.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4300.0,3900.0,4100.0,4400.0,4600.0,4900.0,6100.0,4200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5400.0,4200.0,6500.0,5200.0,7100.0,18500.0,5700.0,8300.0,4900.0,5000.0,4700.0,4500.0,4100.0,4300.0,4600.0,4900.0,5200.0,5800.0,4300.0,5100.0,19500.0,6500.0,5100.0,4800.0,4400.0,4500.0,4800.0,5100.0,5600.0,6900.0,4600.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,4800.0,5000.0,5700.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,5700.0,6900.0,4700.0,5400.0,5100.0,5400.0,5200.0,5500.0,6500.0,5200.0,5500.0,6500.0,9600.0,26000.0,6500.0,10200.0,5700.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,5100.0,5400.0,5700.0,6400.0,4800.0,5500.0,5200.0,5500.0,5200.0,4900.0,4600.0,4700.0,5100.0,5400.0,5900.0,7200.0,4800.0,5500.0,5200.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4700.0,4900.0,5300.0,5600.0,6100.0,7400.0,5000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5700.0,5500.0,5500.0,6200.0,5400.0,5800.0,6900.0,10400.0,28500.0,7800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[11800.0,11400.0,11900.0,11500.0,11100.0,10600.0,23400.0,13800.0,12600.0,15200.0,18900.0,10800.0,12700.0,11900.0,12400.0,12100.0,12800.0,16400.0,11700.0,15300.0,14200.0,18600.0,40500.0,12900.0,21800.0,11800.0,12200.0,11700.0,11300.0,10500.0,10400.0,10900.0,11600.0,12800.0,15900.0,10400.0,12300.0,56200.0,15400.0,11900.0,11400.0,10600.0,10500.0,10900.0,11500.0,15600.0,17400.0,10900.0,13900.0,12400.0,13800.0,14600.0,13200.0,12500.0,12100.0,13100.0,13400.0,15700.0,20800.0,12400.0,15600.0,13200.0,13700.0,13500.0,17900.0,18400.0,13900.0,14600.0,18900.0,32800.0,72400.0,15800.0,30400.0,12600.0,12100.0,11600.0,11400.0,10700.0,10800.0,11200.0,11700.0,12900.0,16100.0,10500.0,11900.0,11100.0,11500.0,10900.0,10700.0,10400.0,10200.0,10600.0,11400.0,12500.0,16800.0,10300.0,11600.0,11200.0,11700.0,11100.0,10900.0,11300.0,15200.0,13400.0,12300.0,14600.0,20400.0,11500.0,13800.0,12400.0,12900.0,13900.0,13200.0,16900.0,14100.0,15300.0,20200.0,34500.0,74200.0,17600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[9200.0,10100.0,9800.0,9400.0,8800.0,8100.0,8900.0,8700.0,10500.0,11200.0,13400.0,8900.0,10200.0,9600.0,10100.0,9500.0,9900.0,12800.0,10100.0,11300.0,12900.0,16200.0,31400.0,12800.0,15800.0,10900.0,10400.0,9800.0,9200.0,8500.0,8300.0,8900.0,10100.0,10600.0,12300.0,8400.0,9900.0,62400.0,15300.0,11100.0,9800.0,9100.0,8600.0,8800.0,10300.0,11500.0,13900.0,8600.0,9800.0,9500.0,10100.0,10400.0,9300.0,8700.0,8400.0,8200.0,9800.0,11200.0,13100.0,8900.0,10300.0,9700.0,10200.0,10600.0,11400.0,12900.0,11100.0,12200.0,14600.0,24800.0,57900.0,14800.0,21300.0,11600.0,10500.0,9700.0,9100.0,8200.0,8400.0,8600.0,9800.0,10400.0,11800.0,8100.0,9200.0,8900.0,9300.0,8700.0,8300.0,7700.0,7800.0,8100.0,9200.0,10100.0,11500.0,7600.0,8900.0,8700.0,9000.0,8400.0,8100.0,7600.0,7900.0,8100.0,9400.0,10200.0,12000.0,7800.0,8800.0,8500.0,9100.0,8900.0,9400.0,12100.0,10300.0,11200.0,13900.0,19500.0,42100.0,12600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[11500.0,10800.0,11200.0,10500.0,9800.0,9000.0,9600.0,9200.0,9900.0,10800.0,12500.0,9500.0,10500.0,10200.0,10400.0,9800.0,9500.0,10200.0,9000.0,11000.0,9600.0,11500.0,21000.0,11000.0,16000.0,10500.0,10200.0,9600.0,9200.0,8500.0,8300.0,8400.0,8900.0,9600.0,10500.0,8600.0,10000.0,42000.0,13000.0,9800.0,9000.0,8200.0,7900.0,8000.0,8700.0,9300.0,10500.0,8200.0,9500.0,9200.0,9800.0,10500.0,9400.0,9000.0,8300.0,8100.0,8500.0,9000.0,10200.0,8000.0,8800.0,8300.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,8200.0,7400.0,7600.0,8500.0,11000.0,24000.0,10000.0,15500.0,9500.0,9000.0,8300.0,7800.0,7300.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,9000.0,7200.0,7800.0,7600.0,7700.0,7300.0,7000.0,6700.0,6500.0,6600.0,7000.0,7400.0,8200.0,6600.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,6800.0,6500.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6700.0,7200.0,8400.0,6500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6900.0,6600.0,6500.0,7000.0,6400.0,6500.0,7400.0,9500.0,21000.0,9500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15000.0,30000.0,19000.0,17500.0,20000.0,24000.0,15500.0,18000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,17000.0,14500.0,19000.0,16000.0,20000.0,52000.0,16000.0,24000.0,16000.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0,15000.0,17000.0,13500.0,15000.0,95000.0,18000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,17000.0,13000.0,17000.0,14000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15500.0,16000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,14500.0,17000.0,13500.0,15500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,15000.0,13000.0,13500.0,16000.0,28000.0,85000.0,16000.0,27000.0,15000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,12000.0,12500.0,14000.0,11500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11500.0,13500.0,10500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,14000.0,10500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12500.0,11000.0,11500.0,13000.0,20000.0,65000.0,15000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3700.0,3900.0,4600.0,3300.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,4200.0,3600.0,3800.0,5000.0,7000.0,11000.0,4200.0,6500.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,3400.0,4000.0,8500.0,5200.0,4400.0,4100.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,4200.0,4300.0,4700.0,3500.0,6800.0,4600.0,5600.0,5200.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,4000.0,4500.0,4800.0,5800.0,3700.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4000.0,3800.0,4400.0,6200.0,9000.0,16000.0,5200.0,7500.0,5000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,4300.0,4600.0,5000.0,3700.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,4400.0,5200.0,6500.0,3800.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4400.0,4700.0,5900.0,3900.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4100.0,3900.0,4200.0,6800.0,9500.0,18000.0,5200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[4118.0,3607.0,3942.0,3534.0,3451.0,3058.0,2913.0,3129.0,3466.0,3859.0,5124.0,3147.0,3893.0,3408.0,3764.0,3381.0,3283.0,4386.0,2776.0,3917.0,3394.0,6348.0,9653.0,3946.0,6823.0,3116.0,3563.0,3294.0,3171.0,2758.0,2694.0,2841.0,3214.0,3571.0,4354.0,2847.0,3608.0,15473.0,7624.0,4246.0,3083.0,2677.0,2629.0,2751.0,3034.0,3347.0,3169.0,2731.0,3502.0,3047.0,3923.0,3546.0,3024.0,2627.0,2534.0,2648.0,2983.0,3276.0,4253.0,2678.0,3453.0,2826.0,3224.0,2947.0,2814.0,4047.0,2373.0,2471.0,5854.0,11213.0,21784.0,5746.0,9457.0,2784.0,3146.0,2879.0,2756.0,2483.0,2381.0,2514.0,2827.0,3129.0,3916.0,2533.0,3284.0,2736.0,3133.0,2827.0,2729.0,2431.0,2354.0,2487.0,2789.0,3076.0,2879.0,2476.0,3229.0,2783.0,3086.0,2794.0,2676.0,2394.0,2311.0,2453.0,2731.0,3044.0,3867.0,2419.0,3157.0,2594.0,2931.0,2709.0,2591.0,2354.0,2261.0,2384.0,4683.0,9647.0,20138.0,4874.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5300.0,5000.0,5250.0,5000.0,4750.0,4350.0,4350.0,4550.0,5000.0,5400.0,7000.0,5050.0,5700.0,5400.0,5700.0,5400.0,5150.0,4700.0,4700.0,4900.0,5400.0,6800.0,22000.0,9500.0,8500.0,6100.0,6200.0,5900.0,5600.0,5150.0,5150.0,5400.0,5900.0,6400.0,7800.0,5950.0,6450.0,8800.0,6900.0,6100.0,5800.0,5300.0,5300.0,5550.0,6100.0,6600.0,7200.0,6150.0,7000.0,6600.0,7200.0,7400.0,6600.0,5900.0,5900.0,6100.0,6700.0,7300.0,8800.0,6650.0,7000.0,6600.0,7000.0,6600.0,6300.0,5750.0,5750.0,6050.0,6900.0,9500.0,30000.0,11500.0,10500.0,6600.0,6600.0,6300.0,6000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5750.0,6300.0,6800.0,7000.0,6350.0,6550.0,6200.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,5400.0,5400.0,5650.0,6200.0,6700.0,7200.0,6250.0,6550.0,6200.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,5400.0,5400.0,5650.0,6200.0,6700.0,8800.0,6250.0,6900.0,6500.0,6850.0,6500.0,6200.0,5650.0,5650.0,5900.0,7800.0,12500.0,45000.0,13500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[950.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,850.0,950.0,1000.0,1300.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1500.0,1300.0,1500.0,3000.0,6500.0,13000.0,4000.0,5000.0,2200.0,1600.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,2200.0,1600.0,1700.0,22000.0,7500.0,3200.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,2100.0,2600.0,4200.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1900.0,2600.0,4200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,3200.0,3800.0,4800.0,8500.0,16000.0,30000.0,11000.0,13000.0,4500.0,2800.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2700.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2200.0,2700.0,3300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2800.0,3800.0,2700.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2400.0,4500.0,5000.0,5500.0,8500.0,16000.0,34000.0,12000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1550.0,1480.0,1620.0,1420.0,1380.0,1320.0,1280.0,1340.0,1480.0,1580.0,2150.0,1680.0,1580.0,1500.0,1450.0,1520.0,1680.0,2350.0,1920.0,6200.0,2850.0,3400.0,5150.0,2320.0,6150.0,2520.0,2210.0,2020.0,1920.0,1860.0,1810.0,1860.0,1960.0,2160.0,2420.0,2010.0,2210.0,10200.0,4750.0,2380.0,2190.0,2110.0,2050.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2520.0,2200.0,3050.0,2650.0,2950.0,2780.0,2500.0,2420.0,2580.0,2380.0,2750.0,2600.0,3080.0,2680.0,2750.0,2560.0,2520.0,2580.0,2820.0,3650.0,2980.0,3120.0,4150.0,5520.0,7650.0,3920.0,6400.0,3150.0,2980.0,2820.0,2780.0,2840.0,2750.0,2830.0,2940.0,3120.0,3450.0,3020.0,2980.0,2820.0,2750.0,2700.0,2760.0,2880.0,2790.0,2830.0,2930.0,3140.0,3680.0,2980.0,3050.0,2910.0,2910.0,3000.0,3100.0,3330.0,4220.0,3710.0,3350.0,3540.0,3980.0,3260.0,3750.0,3380.0,3290.0,3380.0,3500.0,4300.0,3520.0,3610.0,4140.0,5150.0,6580.0,3760.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[6000.0,5700.0,5700.0,5500.0,5500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,6000.0,6200.0,5800.0,4200.0,6700.0,6400.0,6400.0,6100.0,6100.0,4900.0,4600.0,6900.0,7200.0,10000.0,17000.0,6000.0,8300.0,6900.0,6900.0,6600.0,6600.0,5400.0,5000.0,5400.0,7200.0,7300.0,7900.0,5000.0,7800.0,22000.0,12000.0,8600.0,8200.0,5800.0,8200.0,5800.0,7800.0,10200.0,15700.0,6500.0,9200.0,8800.0,19000.0,22000.0,17000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12500.0,9000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11400.0,10400.0,10400.0,8400.0,8300.0,10000.0,16500.0,23000.0,30000.0,11000.0,10800.0,8600.0,8600.0,8200.0,8200.0,6600.0,6200.0,6600.0,9000.0,9000.0,10200.0,6200.0,8500.0,8100.0,8100.0,7800.0,7800.0,6300.0,5900.0,6300.0,8500.0,11000.0,15500.0,7100.0,8100.0,7700.0,7700.0,7400.0,7400.0,6000.0,5600.0,6000.0,8100.0,8100.0,8500.0,5600.0,7800.0,7500.0,7500.0,7100.0,7100.0,5800.0,5400.0,7000.0,12500.0,17000.0,21000.0,7600.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[63000.0,59000.0,62000.0,61000.0,66000.0,71000.0,66000.0,82000.0,76000.0,103000.0,214000.0,72000.0,83000.0,64000.0,65000.0,67000.0,71000.0,99000.0,81000.0,83000.0,96000.0,151000.0,316000.0,112000.0,94000.0,72000.0,67000.0,65000.0,68000.0,67000.0,63000.0,64000.0,68000.0,73000.0,82000.0,88000.0,73000.0,65000.0,66000.0,67000.0,70000.0,70000.0,67000.0,68000.0,71000.0,77000.0,88000.0,83000.0,76000.0,68000.0,73000.0,75000.0,79000.0,77000.0,72000.0,71000.0,74000.0,81000.0,103000.0,87000.0,86000.0,74000.0,77000.0,96000.0,103000.0,138000.0,112000.0,104000.0,120000.0,204000.0,526000.0,192000.0,147000.0,107000.0,91000.0,88000.0,91000.0,92000.0,85000.0,86000.0,91000.0,98000.0,110000.0,111000.0,95000.0,82000.0,80000.0,80000.0,83000.0,84000.0,79000.0,80000.0,83000.0,88000.0,101000.0,96000.0,89000.0,78000.0,79000.0,80000.0,83000.0,85000.0,79000.0,80000.0,87000.0,95000.0,114000.0,92000.0,91000.0,80000.0,82000.0,92000.0,116000.0,179000.0,139000.0,127000.0,148000.0,250000.0,635000.0,231000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[6500.0,6800.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,6500.0,6800.0,7000.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6500.0,6800.0,7500.0,10500.0,8000.0,8500.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6300.0,6800.0,7000.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,14000.0,9000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6500.0,7000.0,7200.0,7500.0,6800.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6500.0,7000.0,7200.0,7500.0,6800.0,7200.0,7000.0,7000.0,6800.0,7500.0,8000.0,7000.0,6500.0,7000.0,8000.0,12500.0,9000.0,9500.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,5800.0,6200.0,6500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6300.0,6300.0,6200.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5600.0,6000.0,6200.0,6500.0,5800.0,6000.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,5300.0,5300.0,5400.0,5800.0,6000.0,6300.0,5600.0,6000.0,5800.0,5800.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,5200.0,5300.0,5800.0,7000.0,10500.0,7500.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4520.0,4080.0,4260.0,4180.0,4130.0,4060.0,3920.0,3880.0,4300.0,4450.0,5340.0,4380.0,4820.0,4290.0,4470.0,4380.0,4330.0,4250.0,4110.0,4060.0,4520.0,4680.0,6020.0,4930.0,5020.0,4480.0,4660.0,4570.0,4520.0,4440.0,4300.0,4250.0,4710.0,4860.0,5450.0,4810.0,5070.0,4530.0,4700.0,4610.0,4560.0,4480.0,4340.0,4290.0,4750.0,4900.0,5140.0,4690.0,5310.0,4750.0,5600.0,5800.0,5200.0,5060.0,4910.0,4860.0,5370.0,5540.0,6410.0,5290.0,6000.0,5330.0,5550.0,5430.0,5380.0,5270.0,5100.0,5050.0,5610.0,5780.0,7260.0,6120.0,5950.0,5350.0,5570.0,5470.0,5410.0,5300.0,5120.0,5070.0,5630.0,5800.0,6230.0,5380.0,5520.0,4980.0,5780.0,5070.0,5020.0,4910.0,4750.0,4700.0,5210.0,5370.0,5620.0,5230.0,5480.0,4970.0,5160.0,5050.0,5000.0,4910.0,4750.0,4700.0,5220.0,5370.0,6210.0,5260.0,5580.0,5050.0,5250.0,5150.0,5100.0,5000.0,4840.0,4790.0,5310.0,5470.0,7360.0,6280.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[920.0,850.0,940.0,900.0,960.0,920.0,950.0,980.0,930.0,1010.0,1150.0,1000.0,1030.0,950.0,1080.0,1000.0,1060.0,980.0,1020.0,990.0,1150.0,1450.0,3100.0,1700.0,2200.0,1250.0,1120.0,1080.0,1110.0,1020.0,1050.0,1090.0,1010.0,1100.0,1200.0,1040.0,1750.0,1600.0,1550.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,1080.0,1050.0,1030.0,1100.0,1250.0,1080.0,1020.0,990.0,1150.0,1080.0,1020.0,980.0,1010.0,1000.0,1060.0,1180.0,1320.0,1080.0,1150.0,980.0,1000.0,1010.0,1080.0,1300.0,1120.0,1100.0,1250.0,1800.0,3300.0,1650.0,2100.0,1150.0,1000.0,960.0,980.0,930.0,910.0,920.0,950.0,980.0,1020.0,900.0,950.0,850.0,890.0,850.0,880.0,820.0,800.0,820.0,840.0,870.0,920.0,810.0,880.0,800.0,830.0,810.0,840.0,790.0,780.0,800.0,820.0,900.0,1000.0,830.0,880.0,810.0,850.0,830.0,900.0,860.0,840.0,880.0,1050.0,1650.0,2800.0,1450.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1300.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1400.0,2600.0,1800.0,2400.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,6000.0,2500.0,1700.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1500.0,1200.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1500.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1400.0,1800.0,3200.0,2100.0,3500.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,1150.0,2400.0,1400.0]}},{"title":"Cheech Marin","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Cheech Marin\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[50800,47249,51638,51171,49998,47543,52435,46934,51621,47615,51761,56381,56755,48616,75222,59187,52709,49072,52929,47023,42672,47133,53506,56829,51545,40973,48851,71032,54607,50504,57455,49515,39144,44838,42092,43178,122364,50254,55286,60442,61536,45908,66992,64613,51161,50544,47537,44638,46040,43448,47764,76950,60271,52497,67728,56862,51565,60167,59867,64127,62231,55375,57742,62627,53031,45894,54972,49221,49074,55067,55114,47170,74915,53674,43349,47250,49192,51443,52350,58853,49934,60971,51294,62567,103742,80895,69881,61862,58016,49468,70433,58159,66495,56007,55478,60930,56853,47677,55545,88405,57505,52882,78842,61115,61868,55295,50549,61562,63336,57567,61675,109079,102677,55445,51989,58340,43861,43155,45851,49291],"flat_reference_value":16860.33824066142,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[46000.0,42000.0,45000.0,62000.0,44000.0,43000.0,58000.0,45000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,48000.0,47000.0,42000.0,43000.0,61000.0,45000.0,68000.0,65000.0,49000.0,43000.0,44000.0,75000.0,85000.0,69000.0,49000.0,45000.0,67000.0,45000.0,44000.0,57000.0,47000.0,42000.0,43000.0,47000.0,49000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,66000.0,44000.0,43000.0,57000.0,45000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,48000.0,47000.0,44000.0,50000.0,72000.0,52000.0,47000.0,58000.0,49000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,51000.0,48000.0,44000.0,46000.0,67000.0,46000.0,45000.0,72000.0,48000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,43000.0,44000.0,65000.0,47000.0,71000.0,63000.0,48000.0,43000.0,44000.0,46000.0,49000.0,63000.0,51000.0,59000.0,67000.0,46000.0,44000.0,57000.0,46000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,48000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,65000.0,44000.0,43000.0,56000.0,45000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,47000.0,45000.0,41000.0,45000.0,85000.0,65000.0,48000.0,58000.0,45000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,47000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[91200.0,83400.0,88700.0,112500.0,89300.0,86100.0,104800.0,89500.0,84200.0,87600.0,92400.0,90100.0,91800.0,84900.0,156400.0,134200.0,96500.0,106800.0,98200.0,88400.0,83900.0,86700.0,85300.0,89600.0,92100.0,81500.0,87900.0,116300.0,89400.0,84800.0,91200.0,87600.0,83100.0,95400.0,86900.0,89200.0,91500.0,82700.0,88600.0,113800.0,89100.0,86400.0,116900.0,94300.0,85200.0,87800.0,86500.0,90800.0,93400.0,85600.0,101200.0,138500.0,108400.0,96700.0,99300.0,95800.0,91400.0,117600.0,104200.0,111500.0,105300.0,92800.0,98400.0,121700.0,96900.0,92100.0,97500.0,93600.0,89400.0,92700.0,128900.0,124300.0,97800.0,86400.0,91200.0,114600.0,93800.0,152400.0,111300.0,92500.0,86700.0,88900.0,87200.0,91600.0,116800.0,141200.0,131500.0,146800.0,106400.0,89700.0,96200.0,115400.0,85300.0,84100.0,82600.0,86900.0,84500.0,77800.0,96300.0,116700.0,84200.0,79600.0,126400.0,104800.0,78500.0,77200.0,75900.0,80400.0,81600.0,71400.0,94800.0,184500.0,121300.0,83700.0,79800.0,74600.0,70200.0,71800.0,69500.0,73400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[52000.0,46000.0,48000.0,68000.0,49000.0,47000.0,51000.0,48000.0,45000.0,47000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,42000.0,46000.0,63000.0,47000.0,58000.0,52000.0,48000.0,44000.0,46000.0,59000.0,64000.0,51000.0,44000.0,45000.0,61000.0,46000.0,43000.0,48000.0,44000.0,41000.0,45000.0,43000.0,46000.0,45000.0,41000.0,44000.0,59000.0,46000.0,44000.0,48000.0,43000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,48000.0,67000.0,53000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,44000.0,58000.0,51000.0,48000.0,45000.0,41000.0,43000.0,58000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,46000.0,44000.0,40000.0,43000.0,57000.0,48000.0,69000.0,55000.0,46000.0,45000.0,105000.0,68000.0,52000.0,72000.0,52000.0,44000.0,59000.0,45000.0,43000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,45000.0,43000.0,40000.0,44000.0,58000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,39000.0,41000.0,55000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,42000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[92000.0,84000.0,88000.0,112000.0,86000.0,84000.0,86000.0,85000.0,80000.0,82000.0,83000.0,88000.0,90000.0,82000.0,98000.0,118000.0,86000.0,92000.0,88000.0,84000.0,78000.0,80000.0,80000.0,84000.0,84000.0,76000.0,80000.0,102000.0,78000.0,76000.0,78000.0,77000.0,72000.0,74000.0,74000.0,78000.0,78000.0,71000.0,74000.0,96000.0,73000.0,72000.0,74000.0,72000.0,70000.0,82000.0,74000.0,76000.0,76000.0,70000.0,80000.0,104000.0,84000.0,76000.0,75000.0,73000.0,68000.0,70000.0,69000.0,73000.0,74000.0,66000.0,70000.0,90000.0,68000.0,66000.0,67000.0,66000.0,62000.0,64000.0,63000.0,67000.0,68000.0,61000.0,64000.0,84000.0,64000.0,76000.0,66000.0,63000.0,60000.0,62000.0,72000.0,66000.0,66000.0,60000.0,62000.0,80000.0,61000.0,59000.0,60000.0,59000.0,56000.0,58000.0,57000.0,60000.0,61000.0,56000.0,58000.0,74000.0,57000.0,56000.0,57000.0,56000.0,53000.0,55000.0,55000.0,58000.0,64000.0,60000.0,66000.0,82000.0,64000.0,66000.0,60000.0,57000.0,54000.0,55000.0,54000.0,57000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[135000.0,125000.0,128000.0,140000.0,125000.0,120000.0,125000.0,122000.0,118000.0,117000.0,118000.0,125000.0,128000.0,115000.0,118000.0,130000.0,116000.0,115000.0,118000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,125000.0,135000.0,130000.0,112000.0,112000.0,125000.0,112000.0,108000.0,110000.0,108000.0,102000.0,103000.0,105000.0,110000.0,112000.0,102000.0,105000.0,118000.0,105000.0,102000.0,106000.0,104000.0,98000.0,98000.0,100000.0,105000.0,108000.0,100000.0,108000.0,130000.0,122000.0,112000.0,112000.0,108000.0,100000.0,98000.0,100000.0,105000.0,108000.0,100000.0,102000.0,112000.0,100000.0,97000.0,100000.0,98000.0,93000.0,92000.0,93000.0,97000.0,98000.0,90000.0,92000.0,100000.0,92000.0,100000.0,95000.0,90000.0,86000.0,86000.0,87000.0,92000.0,95000.0,88000.0,98000.0,100000.0,90000.0,87000.0,88000.0,86000.0,83000.0,83000.0,84000.0,88000.0,90000.0,84000.0,86000.0,95000.0,86000.0,84000.0,85000.0,83000.0,80000.0,80000.0,82000.0,86000.0,88000.0,82000.0,86000.0,115000.0,95000.0,86000.0,85000.0,83000.0,80000.0,79000.0,80000.0,83000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[58000.0,54000.0,61000.0,66000.0,56000.0,57000.0,67000.0,57000.0,55000.0,57000.0,54000.0,51000.0,52000.0,49000.0,54000.0,60000.0,51000.0,52000.0,61000.0,51000.0,49000.0,51000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,44000.0,48000.0,56000.0,46000.0,47000.0,56000.0,47000.0,46000.0,52000.0,50000.0,45000.0,44000.0,42000.0,45000.0,54000.0,43000.0,44000.0,52000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,47000.0,64000.0,53000.0,50000.0,58000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,44000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,44000.0,54000.0,43000.0,43000.0,51000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,39000.0,48000.0,44000.0,95000.0,72000.0,47000.0,42000.0,41000.0,39000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,45000.0,35000.0,35000.0,43000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,33000.0,43000.0,34000.0,34000.0,41000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,50000.0,70000.0,54000.0,36000.0,43000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[35100.0,29800.0,33800.0,40200.0,30400.0,32900.0,30700.0,29200.0,31800.0,34200.0,33100.0,29500.0,33900.0,28600.0,32800.0,39200.0,30100.0,52200.0,36700.0,29600.0,31100.0,33700.0,45900.0,36700.0,32700.0,27900.0,31900.0,38100.0,29300.0,31600.0,29400.0,28400.0,30300.0,32800.0,31500.0,28600.0,31700.0,27100.0,30700.0,36600.0,28400.0,30500.0,34400.0,27600.0,29000.0,31600.0,30700.0,27700.0,32100.0,28600.0,35900.0,42600.0,33300.0,31100.0,29000.0,28100.0,29700.0,32300.0,31200.0,29400.0,30500.0,26200.0,29500.0,35300.0,27500.0,29500.0,27400.0,26600.0,28100.0,30600.0,41400.0,28600.0,29900.0,25700.0,29200.0,34700.0,27000.0,58100.0,35300.0,26200.0,27600.0,30100.0,29100.0,26400.0,28800.0,24800.0,28200.0,33400.0,26100.0,27900.0,26100.0,25200.0,26600.0,29000.0,28100.0,25300.0,27900.0,24700.0,37900.0,33900.0,25100.0,26900.0,25100.0,24300.0,25600.0,27800.0,26900.0,24400.0,27200.0,23400.0,29800.0,62500.0,34600.0,26500.0,24600.0,23800.0,25100.0,27400.0,26400.0,23900.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[28500.0,27500.0,30000.0,31500.0,30000.0,31500.0,32500.0,30500.0,29000.0,30000.0,30500.0,32500.0,29000.0,28000.0,30500.0,32000.0,45000.0,38000.0,36000.0,31000.0,29500.0,30500.0,31000.0,33000.0,27500.0,26500.0,29000.0,30500.0,29000.0,37000.0,32000.0,29500.0,28000.0,29000.0,29500.0,31500.0,26500.0,25500.0,28000.0,29500.0,28000.0,29500.0,30000.0,28500.0,27000.0,28000.0,28500.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,31000.0,32000.0,28500.0,30000.0,30500.0,29000.0,27500.0,28500.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29500.0,31000.0,29500.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28500.0,29500.0,36000.0,31500.0,29500.0,28500.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,55000.0,42000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31500.0,33500.0,29000.0,28000.0,30500.0,32000.0,30500.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29500.0,30500.0,31000.0,33000.0,30500.0,29500.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,50000.0,38000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32500.0,34500.0,31500.0,30500.0,33000.0,62000.0,48000.0,38000.0,35500.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33500.0,35500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[25900.0,25000.0,24500.0,24000.0,23500.0,23000.0,22300.0,22800.0,24000.0,24500.0,25200.0,25700.0,28100.0,27000.0,26500.0,26000.0,27000.0,85000.0,65000.0,42000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28500.0,30200.0,29100.0,28600.0,28000.0,27400.0,26900.0,26000.0,26600.0,28000.0,28600.0,29400.0,30000.0,32400.0,31200.0,30600.0,30000.0,29400.0,28800.0,27900.0,28500.0,30000.0,30600.0,31500.0,32100.0,33500.0,32200.0,31600.0,31000.0,30400.0,29800.0,28800.0,29500.0,31000.0,31600.0,32600.0,33200.0,35600.0,34300.0,33700.0,33000.0,32300.0,31700.0,30700.0,31400.0,33000.0,33700.0,34700.0,35300.0,37800.0,36400.0,35700.0,35000.0,38000.0,160000.0,85000.0,55000.0,45000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,75000.0,55000.0,44000.0,37000.0,36300.0,35500.0,34400.0,35200.0,37000.0,37700.0,38900.0,39600.0,42100.0,40600.0,70000.0,50000.0,38200.0,37400.0,36300.0,37100.0,39000.0,39800.0,41000.0,41700.0,44300.0,42600.0,41800.0,65000.0,52000.0,43000.0,38100.0,39000.0,41000.0,41800.0,43100.0,43900.0],"meta/muse-ember":[50500.0,48432.0,50904.0,78043.0,51306.0,52763.0,54718.0,55667.0,49098.0,50551.0,49500.0,51449.0,49900.0,47856.0,50298.0,77113.0,50694.0,52133.0,54064.0,55001.0,48510.0,49945.0,56242.0,78787.0,66555.0,52008.0,49692.0,76183.0,50082.0,51503.0,53410.0,78785.0,55110.0,49339.0,48312.0,50213.0,48700.0,46704.0,49086.0,75253.0,59364.0,78852.0,68583.0,53669.0,47334.0,48733.0,47718.0,49595.0,48100.0,46128.0,55752.0,100335.0,56187.0,50243.0,52102.0,53003.0,46746.0,48127.0,47124.0,48977.0,47500.0,45552.0,47874.0,73393.0,48246.0,49613.0,51448.0,52337.0,46158.0,47521.0,46530.0,48359.0,46900.0,44976.0,47268.0,72463.0,47634.0,48983.0,50794.0,51671.0,45570.0,46915.0,45936.0,47741.0,46300.0,44400.0,46662.0,71533.0,47022.0,48353.0,50140.0,79057.0,53978.0,46309.0,45342.0,47123.0,45700.0,43824.0,46056.0,70603.0,46410.0,47723.0,49486.0,50339.0,44394.0,45703.0,44748.0,46505.0,45100.0,43248.0,45450.0,87091.0,59537.0,94185.0,117197.0,74509.0,50377.0,45097.0,44154.0,45887.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[50200.0,47100.0,48800.0,47600.0,48500.0,45200.0,43100.0,42300.0,48200.0,49100.0,47300.0,39800.0,51000.0,48000.0,49500.0,48400.0,49200.0,116000.0,79000.0,56000.0,49200.0,50100.0,48200.0,40500.0,49000.0,46000.0,49500.0,49000.0,49500.0,44000.0,42200.0,41500.0,47000.0,47600.0,46000.0,38800.0,50500.0,48000.0,49500.0,48500.0,73000.0,58000.0,44500.0,43500.0,49000.0,50000.0,48000.0,40500.0,52000.0,49500.0,52500.0,53000.0,53500.0,47000.0,45200.0,44000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,41500.0,49500.0,47000.0,48500.0,47500.0,48000.0,45000.0,43200.0,42400.0,48000.0,48500.0,47000.0,39500.0,50500.0,48000.0,49500.0,48500.0,49000.0,46000.0,44200.0,43000.0,79000.0,64500.0,48000.0,40500.0,56000.0,53000.0,55000.0,54000.0,55000.0,71000.0,64500.0,60000.0,54500.0,55500.0,53000.0,45000.0,54000.0,51000.0,52500.0,51500.0,52000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46200.0,52500.0,53500.0,51000.0,43000.0,64000.0,61500.0,63500.0,62500.0,92000.0,148000.0,102000.0,76000.0,70500.0,72000.0,66000.0,55000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[29000.0,25500.0,27000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26500.0,24500.0,27000.0,28500.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,25500.0,26500.0,30000.0,27500.0,25500.0,26000.0,24500.0,26500.0,28000.0,28500.0,30000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,31500.0,28500.0,26500.0,26500.0,25000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29500.0,31000.0,30000.0,27000.0,29000.0,32500.0,29500.0,27500.0,27000.0,25500.0,28000.0,30000.0,30500.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,38000.0,46000.0,42000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,40000.0,37000.0,32000.0,33000.0,37500.0,34500.0,32000.0,31500.0,29500.0,32000.0,34500.0,35500.0,38000.0,37000.0,32500.0,33500.0,38500.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,33000.0,35000.0,44000.0,46000.0,38000.0,33000.0,34000.0,39000.0,35000.0,42000.0,32000.0,31500.0,33000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,38000.0,33000.0,35000.0,40000.0,42000.0,68000.0,45000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31500.0,29500.0,32000.0,35000.0,35000.0,37000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[85000.0,80000.0,82000.0,105000.0,82000.0,78000.0,76000.0,76000.0,74000.0,78000.0,80000.0,80000.0,82000.0,78000.0,80000.0,100000.0,80000.0,76000.0,75000.0,74000.0,74000.0,80000.0,120000.0,100000.0,85000.0,80000.0,82000.0,100000.0,80000.0,76000.0,75000.0,74000.0,73000.0,76000.0,78000.0,78000.0,80000.0,76000.0,78000.0,98000.0,78000.0,75000.0,78000.0,76000.0,74000.0,76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,78000.0,82000.0,100000.0,82000.0,78000.0,76000.0,76000.0,75000.0,76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,78000.0,80000.0,98000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,76000.0,75000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,82000.0,78000.0,82000.0,100000.0,88000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,82000.0,78000.0,80000.0,98000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,76000.0,75000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,82000.0,78000.0,80000.0,98000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,76000.0,75000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0,82000.0,78000.0,80000.0,98000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,76000.0,75000.0,78000.0,80000.0,82000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[5120.0,4420.0,4280.0,5880.0,4900.0,4950.0,4750.0,4450.0,4230.0,4560.0,4840.0,5450.0,4850.0,4180.0,4050.0,5560.0,4630.0,4270.0,4540.0,3960.0,4010.0,4320.0,4580.0,5160.0,5350.0,4600.0,4450.0,6450.0,5100.0,6450.0,5650.0,4400.0,4450.0,4750.0,5050.0,5680.0,5560.0,4790.0,4640.0,6380.0,5300.0,5390.0,5720.0,4540.0,4590.0,4950.0,5250.0,5920.0,5670.0,4890.0,4730.0,7670.0,5410.0,4990.0,5300.0,4630.0,4680.0,5040.0,5360.0,6340.0,5400.0,4650.0,4510.0,7180.0,5150.0,4750.0,5050.0,4410.0,4460.0,4800.0,5100.0,5740.0,5830.0,5030.0,4870.0,7690.0,6570.0,8200.0,6270.0,5000.0,4820.0,5190.0,5510.0,6210.0,5940.0,5120.0,4960.0,8310.0,5670.0,6170.0,6670.0,6060.0,4910.0,5290.0,5610.0,6320.0,5560.0,4790.0,4640.0,7520.0,5840.0,5490.0,5200.0,4540.0,4590.0,5200.0,5250.0,5920.0,5230.0,4510.0,4370.0,7200.0,4990.0,4610.0,5790.0,4700.0,4320.0,4660.0,4940.0,5570.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[6500.0,6100.0,6700.0,6400.0,6800.0,7100.0,7800.0,7300.0,6900.0,6600.0,6800.0,7500.0,6900.0,6400.0,7100.0,6800.0,7000.0,7400.0,8100.0,7500.0,7200.0,6900.0,7100.0,7900.0,7200.0,6700.0,7400.0,7100.0,7500.0,7800.0,8500.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,7400.0,8200.0,7600.0,7000.0,7800.0,7400.0,7700.0,8100.0,8900.0,8200.0,7800.0,7500.0,7700.0,8600.0,7900.0,7400.0,8700.0,9200.0,8500.0,8200.0,9000.0,8400.0,8000.0,7800.0,8000.0,8900.0,8200.0,7600.0,8500.0,8100.0,8400.0,8800.0,9600.0,8900.0,8400.0,8100.0,8300.0,9200.0,8500.0,7900.0,9100.0,8900.0,10500.0,27000.0,17000.0,12300.0,10500.0,9600.0,9800.0,11000.0,9300.0,8600.0,9400.0,9100.0,9500.0,9900.0,10800.0,10000.0,9500.0,9200.0,9400.0,10500.0,9700.0,9000.0,11500.0,10300.0,10800.0,11200.0,12100.0,11100.0,10400.0,10100.0,10400.0,11600.0,10100.0,9400.0,10000.0,9700.0,10200.0,10600.0,11500.0,10700.0,10100.0,9800.0,10100.0,11300.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3570.0,3400.0,3400.0,4080.0,3400.0,3298.0,3230.0,3230.0,3332.0,3400.0,3332.0,3298.0,3360.0,3200.0,3200.0,3840.0,3200.0,3104.0,3040.0,3040.0,3136.0,3200.0,3136.0,3104.0,3150.0,3000.0,3000.0,3600.0,3000.0,2910.0,2850.0,2850.0,2940.0,3000.0,2940.0,2910.0,3045.0,2900.0,2900.0,3480.0,2900.0,2813.0,2755.0,2755.0,2842.0,2900.0,2842.0,2813.0,3780.0,3600.0,3600.0,4320.0,3600.0,3492.0,3420.0,3420.0,3528.0,3600.0,3528.0,3492.0,3465.0,3300.0,3300.0,3960.0,3300.0,3201.0,3135.0,3135.0,3234.0,3300.0,3234.0,3201.0,3255.0,3100.0,3100.0,3720.0,3100.0,3007.0,2945.0,2945.0,3038.0,3100.0,3038.0,3007.0,3150.0,3000.0,3000.0,3600.0,3000.0,2910.0,2850.0,2850.0,2940.0,3000.0,2940.0,2910.0,3255.0,3100.0,3100.0,3720.0,3100.0,3007.0,2945.0,2945.0,3038.0,3100.0,3038.0,3007.0,3045.0,2900.0,2900.0,3480.0,2900.0,2813.0,2755.0,2755.0,2842.0,2900.0,2842.0,2813.0]}},{"title":"Midrand","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Midrand\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3987,3494,3824,4597,3978,3168,3314,5808,3657,3201,3827,2980,3758,4510,3924,3300,3735,3495,3612,4603,3987,3918,4004,3463,4338,4135,4065,3426,4064,3034,3437,3940,3160,3332,3049,3078,3708,3598,4429,3790,4122,3528,4133,4391,3970,6028,4456,4450,4154,4131,3509,3852,3935,3481,3414,3549,3494,3873,3682,3791,3847,3962,4528,4057,3932,3704,4878,5771,4404,3878,4089,3782,4084,3958,4278,4397,3802,3906,4384,5453,4367,4335,4065,3485,3977,4158,4589,3811,4389,4418,4618,5893,4801,4593,4957,4636,5810,5916,5062,5200,4523,3891,4079,4903,3678,3923,3687,3276,4191,3904,3642,3920,3378,3121,3199,3694,2985,2851,2877,2831],"flat_reference_value":17089.143213641946,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[4500.0,4800.0,5100.0,8500.0,7200.0,5500.0,5300.0,5200.0,5400.0,5500.0,5200.0,4600.0,5100.0,5200.0,5600.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,5700.0,5500.0,4900.0,5400.0,5500.0,5900.0,5600.0,5900.0,5600.0,5900.0,6000.0,5800.0,6100.0,5800.0,5100.0,5700.0,5800.0,6200.0,5900.0,6300.0,5900.0,6200.0,6300.0,6200.0,6400.0,6100.0,5300.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,5100.0,5500.0,5800.0,6100.0,6200.0,6300.0,6500.0,6200.0,5500.0,6100.0,6200.0,6700.0,6300.0,7200.0,6900.0,7400.0,6800.0,6600.0,6800.0,6500.0,5700.0,6400.0,6500.0,7000.0,6600.0,7000.0,6700.0,7000.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,6800.0,5900.0,6700.0,6800.0,7300.0,6900.0,7300.0,7000.0,7300.0,7600.0,7200.0,7500.0,7100.0,6200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7600.0,7200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7700.0,7800.0,7500.0,7800.0,7400.0,6400.0,7200.0,7300.0,7800.0,7400.0,7900.0,7500.0,7900.0,8000.0,7700.0,8000.0,7600.0,6600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4150.0,4480.0,4520.0,6350.0,5890.0,4610.0,4540.0,4720.0,4650.0,4580.0,4390.0,3620.0,4280.0,4590.0,4750.0,4320.0,4560.0,4410.0,4490.0,4680.0,4530.0,4610.0,4350.0,3540.0,4210.0,4510.0,4640.0,4290.0,4470.0,4310.0,4420.0,4580.0,4460.0,4520.0,4270.0,3480.0,4190.0,4460.0,4590.0,4250.0,4430.0,4220.0,4380.0,4510.0,4390.0,4450.0,4290.0,3410.0,4120.0,4380.0,4050.0,3390.0,3520.0,3680.0,3790.0,3910.0,3980.0,4060.0,3890.0,3250.0,3690.0,3980.0,4190.0,3920.0,4150.0,3880.0,4020.0,4110.0,4040.0,4090.0,3910.0,3210.0,3780.0,4060.0,4210.0,3850.0,4020.0,3910.0,4080.0,4290.0,4050.0,4010.0,3840.0,3140.0,3680.0,3950.0,4120.0,3760.0,3940.0,3810.0,3920.0,4380.0,3960.0,3890.0,3710.0,3020.0,3510.0,3740.0,3820.0,3560.0,3690.0,3480.0,3590.0,3680.0,3540.0,3580.0,3390.0,2780.0,3240.0,3460.0,3550.0,3280.0,3390.0,3210.0,3320.0,3410.0,3290.0,3340.0,3180.0,2610.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[6200.0,6900.0,7300.0,10800.0,9200.0,7400.0,7100.0,7800.0,7600.0,7900.0,7700.0,5900.0,6800.0,7400.0,8100.0,7600.0,8200.0,7500.0,7300.0,8000.0,8100.0,8400.0,8200.0,6300.0,7100.0,7700.0,8400.0,7900.0,8500.0,7800.0,7600.0,8300.0,8400.0,8700.0,8500.0,6500.0,7300.0,8000.0,8800.0,8200.0,8900.0,8100.0,8000.0,8700.0,8800.0,9100.0,8800.0,6700.0,7500.0,8300.0,9200.0,10400.0,10100.0,8800.0,8600.0,8900.0,8800.0,9000.0,8600.0,6800.0,7400.0,8100.0,8700.0,8300.0,8800.0,8200.0,9400.0,8600.0,8500.0,8700.0,8400.0,6600.0,7100.0,7800.0,8400.0,7900.0,8300.0,7700.0,7500.0,8100.0,8200.0,8400.0,8000.0,6300.0,6900.0,7500.0,8100.0,7600.0,8000.0,7400.0,7300.0,7800.0,7900.0,8100.0,7800.0,6100.0,6700.0,7300.0,7900.0,7400.0,8200.0,7500.0,7300.0,7700.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,5900.0,6500.0,7200.0,7700.0,7300.0,7800.0,7200.0,7100.0,7500.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,5800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[5200.0,5600.0,5800.0,5400.0,5700.0,5300.0,5200.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5300.0,4300.0,4900.0,5300.0,5500.0,5000.0,5300.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,5000.0,4000.0,4600.0,5000.0,5100.0,4700.0,5000.0,4700.0,4600.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,3800.0,4400.0,4700.0,4800.0,4400.0,4600.0,4300.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,3500.0,4100.0,4400.0,4300.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4200.0,4000.0,3300.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3100.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,2900.0,3300.0,3600.0,3700.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,2800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3400.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,2600.0,3000.0,3200.0,3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2400.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9200.0,9000.0,9100.0,8800.0,9000.0,8700.0,8900.0,9100.0,8900.0,9000.0,8800.0,7600.0,9300.0,8800.0,9200.0,8500.0,8900.0,8500.0,8700.0,8900.0,8600.0,8800.0,8500.0,7300.0,8900.0,8300.0,8500.0,8100.0,8300.0,7900.0,8200.0,8300.0,8000.0,8300.0,8000.0,6900.0,8400.0,7800.0,8000.0,7600.0,7800.0,7400.0,7700.0,7800.0,7600.0,7800.0,7500.0,6600.0,7900.0,7500.0,7600.0,7400.0,7800.0,7700.0,7900.0,7700.0,7500.0,7500.0,7200.0,6500.0,7600.0,7000.0,7300.0,6900.0,7100.0,6900.0,7400.0,7100.0,6800.0,6900.0,6700.0,6000.0,7000.0,6500.0,6800.0,6400.0,6600.0,6300.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6500.0,6300.0,5600.0,6600.0,6100.0,6400.0,6000.0,6300.0,6000.0,6200.0,6300.0,6100.0,6200.0,6000.0,5400.0,6300.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,6100.0,5800.0,6000.0,6100.0,5900.0,6000.0,5800.0,5200.0,6100.0,5700.0,6000.0,5700.0,5900.0,5600.0,5800.0,5900.0,5700.0,5800.0,5600.0,5100.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[7200.0,6400.0,6500.0,7250.0,6900.0,7050.0,6750.0,6950.0,6800.0,6600.0,6400.0,7150.0,7600.0,6750.0,6900.0,6700.0,7000.0,6950.0,7250.0,6700.0,7050.0,6900.0,6700.0,7550.0,8000.0,7150.0,7250.0,7100.0,7350.0,7350.0,7750.0,7100.0,7500.0,7300.0,7100.0,7900.0,8300.0,7450.0,7500.0,7400.0,7750.0,7700.0,8000.0,7400.0,7750.0,7600.0,7900.0,8150.0,8100.0,7250.0,7050.0,5600.0,6100.0,6950.0,7250.0,7200.0,7300.0,7400.0,7200.0,7600.0,7450.0,7150.0,7250.0,7150.0,7250.0,7450.0,8100.0,7250.0,7350.0,7300.0,7450.0,7800.0,8750.0,7850.0,7900.0,7850.0,8050.0,8100.0,8500.0,7750.0,8250.0,8000.0,7750.0,8650.0,9400.0,8450.0,8500.0,8350.0,8700.0,8700.0,9100.0,8350.0,8850.0,8600.0,8350.0,9300.0,10050.0,9000.0,9100.0,8900.0,9350.0,9400.0,9650.0,8900.0,9500.0,9200.0,8950.0,9950.0,10700.0,10300.0,9600.0,9600.0,10000.0,9900.0,10400.0,9500.0,10100.0,10000.0,11150.0,11100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[938.0,743.0,954.0,814.0,888.0,787.0,920.0,1330.0,836.0,948.0,875.0,842.0,928.0,815.0,897.0,889.0,858.0,919.0,891.0,958.0,939.0,915.0,926.0,822.0,1021.0,780.0,988.0,850.0,1003.0,873.0,961.0,935.0,954.0,1048.0,893.0,886.0,1007.0,850.0,973.0,963.0,1299.0,885.0,1034.0,988.0,1395.0,1043.0,1013.0,854.0,1073.0,848.0,1295.0,1127.0,1043.0,944.0,1039.0,979.0,1031.0,1036.0,1067.0,892.0,1055.0,944.0,1051.0,1000.0,1005.0,1015.0,1989.0,1044.0,1044.0,1059.0,1378.0,988.0,1178.0,901.0,1118.0,960.0,1123.0,986.0,1151.0,1099.0,1003.0,1172.0,1061.0,1000.0,1111.0,977.0,1198.0,1043.0,1091.0,1090.0,1063.0,1414.0,1067.0,1196.0,1071.0,1071.0,1205.0,1002.0,1117.0,1150.0,1517.0,1101.0,1141.0,1226.0,1087.0,1219.0,1172.0,1018.0,1265.0,1016.0,1186.0,1139.0,1145.0,1166.0,1139.0,1225.0,1222.0,1217.0,1123.0,1123.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[2900.0,2650.0,2750.0,2850.0,2600.0,2560.0,2700.0,2750.0,2700.0,2800.0,2750.0,2480.0,3130.0,2840.0,2960.0,2900.0,2780.0,2760.0,2900.0,2960.0,2900.0,3000.0,2960.0,2670.0,3240.0,2940.0,3060.0,3000.0,2880.0,2850.0,3000.0,3060.0,3000.0,3090.0,3060.0,2760.0,3350.0,3040.0,3160.0,3300.0,3700.0,3100.0,3100.0,3160.0,3100.0,3190.0,3160.0,2850.0,3350.0,3040.0,2500.0,2200.0,2400.0,2800.0,3050.0,3100.0,3050.0,3150.0,3100.0,2800.0,3560.0,3230.0,3370.0,3300.0,3170.0,3130.0,5400.0,3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3050.0,3670.0,3330.0,3470.0,3600.0,3260.0,3230.0,3400.0,3470.0,3400.0,3500.0,3470.0,3130.0,3780.0,3430.0,3570.0,3500.0,3360.0,3330.0,3500.0,3570.0,3500.0,3610.0,3570.0,3220.0,4000.0,3630.0,3770.0,4000.0,4800.0,4100.0,3900.0,3780.0,3700.0,3810.0,3770.0,3400.0,4210.0,3820.0,3980.0,3900.0,3740.0,3710.0,3900.0,3980.0,3900.0,4020.0,3980.0,3590.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[3410.0,3286.0,3162.0,3038.0,3007.0,2945.0,3069.0,3962.0,3224.0,3255.0,3131.0,2728.0,3575.0,3445.0,3315.0,3185.0,3153.0,3088.0,3218.0,3315.0,3380.0,3413.0,3283.0,2860.0,3740.0,3604.0,3468.0,3332.0,3298.0,3230.0,3366.0,3468.0,3536.0,3570.0,3434.0,2992.0,3905.0,3763.0,3621.0,3479.0,3444.0,3373.0,3515.0,3621.0,4092.0,3728.0,3586.0,3124.0,4070.0,3922.0,4374.0,4426.0,3989.0,3515.0,3663.0,3774.0,3848.0,3885.0,3737.0,3256.0,4290.0,4134.0,3978.0,3822.0,3783.0,3705.0,5361.0,3978.0,4056.0,4095.0,3939.0,3432.0,4455.0,4293.0,4131.0,4469.0,3929.0,3848.0,4010.0,4131.0,4212.0,4253.0,4091.0,3564.0,4620.0,4452.0,4284.0,4116.0,4074.0,3990.0,4158.0,4784.0,4368.0,4410.0,4242.0,3696.0,4785.0,4611.0,4437.0,4263.0,4620.0,4133.0,4307.0,4437.0,4524.0,4568.0,4394.0,3828.0,4730.0,4558.0,4386.0,4214.0,4171.0,4085.0,4257.0,4386.0,4472.0,4515.0,4343.0,3784.0],"meta/muse-ember":[790.0,835.0,815.0,1040.0,930.0,820.0,845.0,800.0,770.0,785.0,845.0,905.0,875.0,905.0,875.0,845.0,830.0,860.0,875.0,845.0,815.0,830.0,890.0,940.0,955.0,985.0,940.0,905.0,890.0,920.0,940.0,905.0,875.0,890.0,955.0,1000.0,1030.0,1060.0,1015.0,985.0,970.0,1000.0,1015.0,985.0,955.0,970.0,1060.0,1110.0,1060.0,1045.0,1215.0,1125.0,1095.0,1060.0,1060.0,1030.0,1000.0,1015.0,1080.0,1170.0,1095.0,1110.0,1060.0,1030.0,1015.0,1030.0,2325.0,1210.0,1000.0,1015.0,1060.0,1125.0,1045.0,1030.0,1000.0,970.0,955.0,970.0,985.0,955.0,920.0,940.0,985.0,1045.0,970.0,955.0,920.0,890.0,875.0,905.0,920.0,890.0,860.0,990.0,940.0,1000.0,920.0,905.0,875.0,860.0,960.0,875.0,860.0,845.0,815.0,830.0,875.0,920.0,875.0,860.0,830.0,800.0,785.0,800.0,815.0,785.0,750.0,770.0,905.0,940.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[2389.0,2342.0,2410.0,2338.0,2358.0,2308.0,2534.0,3084.0,2442.0,2512.0,2607.0,2679.0,2651.0,2597.0,2670.0,2588.0,2608.0,2550.0,2544.0,2618.0,2692.0,2767.0,2870.0,2947.0,2914.0,2852.0,2930.0,2838.0,2858.0,2793.0,2784.0,2870.0,2958.0,3048.0,3168.0,3259.0,3229.0,3166.0,3258.0,3163.0,3575.0,3124.0,3120.0,3217.0,3815.0,3417.0,3552.0,3656.0,3623.0,3553.0,4206.0,4544.0,4228.0,3719.0,3504.0,3630.0,3758.0,3889.0,4060.0,4699.0,4925.0,4438.0,4246.0,4138.0,4192.0,4736.0,14861.0,5656.0,4675.0,4310.0,4939.0,4467.0,4358.0,4208.0,4264.0,4075.0,4050.0,3904.0,3840.0,3896.0,3950.0,4004.0,4095.0,4146.0,4043.0,3902.0,3952.0,3775.0,3750.0,3613.0,3552.0,3602.0,3650.0,3919.0,3969.0,3825.0,3728.0,3596.0,3640.0,3475.0,3864.0,3488.0,3264.0,3340.0,3417.0,3494.0,3605.0,4972.0,4528.0,3950.0,3966.0,3475.0,3483.0,3387.0,3864.0,3850.0,3798.0,3596.0,3710.0,3790.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[3260.0,3110.0,3200.0,3290.0,3140.0,2980.0,3050.0,3130.0,3350.0,3310.0,3510.0,3190.0,3450.0,3270.0,3380.0,3470.0,3300.0,3140.0,3210.0,3300.0,3540.0,3470.0,3740.0,3380.0,3570.0,3380.0,3500.0,3590.0,3410.0,3240.0,3780.0,3470.0,3700.0,3650.0,3860.0,3510.0,3720.0,3530.0,3650.0,3740.0,3560.0,3380.0,3450.0,3990.0,3870.0,3830.0,4090.0,3680.0,4040.0,3730.0,4010.0,3650.0,3550.0,3570.0,3630.0,3580.0,3780.0,3740.0,3930.0,3550.0,3880.0,3680.0,3760.0,3840.0,3650.0,3680.0,6020.0,4810.0,3960.0,3890.0,4050.0,3640.0,4090.0,3870.0,3940.0,4020.0,3820.0,4210.0,4090.0,3980.0,4040.0,4130.0,4280.0,3870.0,3990.0,3780.0,3870.0,3950.0,3750.0,3840.0,4110.0,3930.0,4040.0,4080.0,4190.0,3780.0,3920.0,3710.0,3810.0,3890.0,3700.0,3780.0,3920.0,3760.0,3870.0,3930.0,4030.0,3630.0,3860.0,3660.0,3750.0,3830.0,3640.0,3720.0,3850.0,3690.0,3800.0,3850.0,3960.0,3560.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,3200.0,3400.0,4000.0,4200.0,3900.0,4100.0,3900.0,3800.0,4100.0,4100.0,4200.0,4100.0,3100.0,3400.0,4000.0,4100.0,3800.0,4000.0,3700.0,3700.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3000.0,3300.0,3900.0,4000.0,3700.0,3900.0,3600.0,3600.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,2900.0,3200.0,3800.0,3600.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,2700.0,3000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3300.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,2600.0,2900.0,3400.0,3500.0,3200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,2500.0,2800.0,3300.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,2400.0,2700.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,2300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[978.0,758.0,899.0,808.0,957.0,833.0,945.0,1053.0,989.0,875.0,912.0,1013.0,1010.0,784.0,928.0,836.0,988.0,862.0,975.0,965.0,1021.0,905.0,941.0,1048.0,1064.0,828.0,976.0,882.0,1039.0,911.0,1025.0,1019.0,1074.0,955.0,990.0,1107.0,1096.0,854.0,1005.0,909.0,1220.0,940.0,1055.0,1051.0,1106.0,985.0,1020.0,1142.0,1032.0,802.0,1107.0,934.0,1009.0,882.0,995.0,987.0,1042.0,925.0,961.0,1072.0,999.0,775.0,918.0,826.0,978.0,852.0,1095.0,954.0,1010.0,895.0,1082.0,1036.0,957.0,741.0,880.0,790.0,936.0,814.0,925.0,912.0,968.0,855.0,892.0,990.0,914.0,706.0,841.0,753.0,895.0,775.0,885.0,869.0,925.0,815.0,853.0,943.0,935.0,723.0,861.0,771.0,1066.0,794.0,905.0,890.0,947.0,835.0,1033.0,966.0,871.0,671.0,803.0,716.0,854.0,736.0,845.0,826.0,883.0,775.0,814.0,896.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[620.0,680.0,730.0,700.0,760.0,780.0,820.0,790.0,750.0,770.0,720.0,610.0,690.0,740.0,790.0,760.0,800.0,830.0,880.0,850.0,810.0,830.0,780.0,660.0,720.0,770.0,810.0,780.0,830.0,850.0,910.0,870.0,840.0,860.0,800.0,680.0,740.0,790.0,850.0,820.0,870.0,900.0,950.0,910.0,880.0,900.0,840.0,710.0,760.0,800.0,820.0,780.0,750.0,730.0,790.0,820.0,780.0,810.0,770.0,650.0,700.0,760.0,820.0,790.0,850.0,880.0,950.0,900.0,870.0,900.0,840.0,700.0,740.0,800.0,860.0,830.0,890.0,920.0,980.0,940.0,900.0,930.0,870.0,730.0,780.0,850.0,920.0,880.0,940.0,1000.0,1300.0,1020.0,960.0,990.0,900.0,760.0,820.0,880.0,930.0,900.0,950.0,980.0,1050.0,1000.0,970.0,1020.0,930.0,790.0,800.0,860.0,910.0,880.0,940.0,970.0,1030.0,990.0,950.0,980.0,900.0,770.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[900.0,945.0,972.0,945.0,900.0,873.0,873.0,900.0,918.0,927.0,1200.0,810.0,820.0,861.0,886.0,861.0,820.0,795.0,795.0,820.0,836.0,845.0,970.0,738.0,760.0,798.0,821.0,798.0,760.0,737.0,737.0,760.0,775.0,783.0,760.0,684.0,720.0,756.0,778.0,756.0,720.0,698.0,698.0,720.0,734.0,742.0,720.0,648.0,680.0,714.0,734.0,714.0,680.0,660.0,660.0,680.0,694.0,700.0,680.0,612.0,620.0,651.0,670.0,651.0,620.0,601.0,601.0,620.0,632.0,639.0,620.0,558.0,600.0,630.0,648.0,630.0,600.0,582.0,582.0,600.0,612.0,618.0,600.0,540.0,560.0,588.0,605.0,588.0,560.0,543.0,543.0,560.0,571.0,577.0,560.0,504.0,540.0,567.0,583.0,567.0,540.0,524.0,524.0,540.0,551.0,556.0,540.0,486.0,500.0,525.0,540.0,525.0,500.0,485.0,485.0,500.0,510.0,515.0,500.0,450.0]}},{"title":"Kroger","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Kroger\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[44058,41462,43149,40958,44200,41981,43201,46372,44114,43326,42304,43956,47927,42233,49477,54808,50350,69480,56066,53708,49266,52195,50520,49086,55188,48372,67753,51231,54793,52200,55192,65344,47174,48544,49457,47139,52710,43866,50302,43727,44970,48571,46155,48279,54225,50472,49477,45238,48687,50657,64397,79636,67742,45980,50530,46839,44346,45295,44337,44760,49719,56560,62793,45183,46245,38540,43935,42307,47348,40043,39031,43476,50635,36966,40687,39299,38172,39233,40530,41781,39162,96079,48394,48834,47581,36882,45624,38155,41338,45637,46663,47657,52436,43599,43551,44072,49038,54467,42193,37451,38681,35949,51213,49792,43183,36987,36268,46685,38051,33660,42807,31771,34514,39228,36262,38822,33326,31524,38056,31018],"flat_reference_value":16876.8827548937,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[43000.0,41000.0,44000.0,42000.0,44000.0,46000.0,45000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,49000.0,47000.0,47000.0,44000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,56000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,47000.0,51000.0,49000.0,53000.0,54000.0,51000.0,53000.0,52000.0,75000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,48000.0,52000.0,51000.0,53000.0,54000.0,52000.0,55000.0,54000.0,55000.0,57000.0,54000.0,54000.0,52000.0,110000.0,85000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,65000.0,63000.0,65000.0,68000.0,64000.0,63000.0,60000.0,85000.0,67000.0,64000.0,66000.0,65000.0,67000.0,85000.0,69000.0,68000.0,65000.0,65000.0,61000.0,66000.0,64000.0,67000.0,68000.0,67000.0,69000.0,70000.0,170000.0,90000.0,75000.0,72000.0,68000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,74000.0,73000.0,76000.0,78000.0,75000.0,78000.0,73000.0,73000.0,85000.0,74000.0,72000.0,74000.0,76000.0,75000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,160000.0,80000.0,75000.0,90000.0,76000.0,76000.0,78000.0,75000.0,78000.0,77000.0,76000.0,79000.0,75000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[71200.0,66800.0,70400.0,68900.0,67500.0,65200.0,66100.0,67800.0,69300.0,71500.0,75800.0,70900.0,72400.0,67900.0,73100.0,70200.0,69800.0,89500.0,71400.0,70600.0,71800.0,74200.0,78600.0,73500.0,76200.0,71900.0,92400.0,75600.0,79800.0,71200.0,70500.0,74100.0,72800.0,75900.0,80400.0,74600.0,76800.0,71500.0,77200.0,74900.0,73800.0,70400.0,72100.0,75600.0,74300.0,77800.0,84500.0,78200.0,80400.0,96500.0,154000.0,138000.0,112000.0,91500.0,93200.0,89400.0,86800.0,88500.0,94200.0,89700.0,88900.0,104500.0,118000.0,91200.0,86400.0,82100.0,83500.0,85900.0,112500.0,87400.0,91800.0,88200.0,98400.0,84600.0,87200.0,85100.0,83900.0,81500.0,82800.0,84300.0,85700.0,198000.0,119000.0,95400.0,94800.0,86500.0,92100.0,88700.0,87400.0,84900.0,86200.0,88500.0,93400.0,91800.0,95600.0,89300.0,92400.0,126000.0,104500.0,93200.0,89600.0,86400.0,88900.0,138000.0,129000.0,98500.0,101200.0,176000.0,97500.0,85400.0,184000.0,106000.0,86200.0,81500.0,79800.0,81200.0,80400.0,82600.0,87500.0,81900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[55100.0,53200.0,56400.0,52100.0,50800.0,51400.0,49600.0,54300.0,52700.0,54500.0,59200.0,58400.0,57300.0,53100.0,56200.0,52600.0,51500.0,68400.0,53700.0,55200.0,54100.0,56800.0,61400.0,60200.0,62100.0,56300.0,58700.0,55400.0,65200.0,58300.0,56700.0,60500.0,58900.0,61200.0,66800.0,64500.0,63400.0,59100.0,64200.0,61500.0,60300.0,62400.0,61200.0,65700.0,64100.0,67300.0,73200.0,70600.0,68100.0,66400.0,135200.0,95600.0,78400.0,72100.0,69300.0,71500.0,70200.0,74100.0,82600.0,79400.0,72500.0,67300.0,88400.0,73200.0,69100.0,68400.0,67200.0,70800.0,69500.0,73400.0,80100.0,77500.0,75400.0,68200.0,70600.0,66100.0,65300.0,64200.0,63800.0,67400.0,66200.0,185300.0,115200.0,85400.0,78200.0,72400.0,76100.0,71500.0,69400.0,68200.0,67500.0,71300.0,74200.0,76800.0,83500.0,78100.0,76400.0,98200.0,84100.0,75300.0,72400.0,70100.0,73600.0,92400.0,104200.0,81500.0,84700.0,125300.0,85200.0,75400.0,73100.0,70200.0,68500.0,67100.0,66400.0,69200.0,68100.0,71300.0,76500.0,74200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[56000.0,52000.0,55000.0,53000.0,54000.0,53000.0,54000.0,55000.0,52000.0,54000.0,58000.0,57000.0,55000.0,50000.0,54000.0,52000.0,53000.0,60000.0,54000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,56000.0,55000.0,53000.0,49000.0,52000.0,50000.0,51000.0,50000.0,51000.0,52000.0,49000.0,51000.0,55000.0,53000.0,51000.0,47000.0,50000.0,49000.0,49000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,47000.0,49000.0,52000.0,51000.0,49000.0,47000.0,72000.0,62000.0,54000.0,50000.0,51000.0,49000.0,46000.0,47000.0,50000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,46000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,85000.0,55000.0,50000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,43000.0,50000.0,43000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,58000.0,45000.0,40000.0,50000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,40000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[112000.0,108000.0,112000.0,106000.0,104000.0,102000.0,104000.0,106000.0,104000.0,106000.0,110000.0,108000.0,116000.0,112000.0,118000.0,112000.0,114000.0,138000.0,122000.0,120000.0,116000.0,120000.0,124000.0,118000.0,128000.0,122000.0,130000.0,126000.0,128000.0,124000.0,126000.0,128000.0,124000.0,142000.0,130000.0,124000.0,128000.0,120000.0,126000.0,120000.0,120000.0,116000.0,118000.0,118000.0,114000.0,118000.0,120000.0,116000.0,122000.0,118000.0,165000.0,160000.0,138000.0,128000.0,130000.0,126000.0,120000.0,122000.0,126000.0,124000.0,128000.0,124000.0,150000.0,124000.0,118000.0,114000.0,114000.0,114000.0,128000.0,114000.0,116000.0,114000.0,116000.0,108000.0,112000.0,108000.0,108000.0,106000.0,106000.0,106000.0,104000.0,190000.0,120000.0,110000.0,112000.0,102000.0,106000.0,100000.0,100000.0,98000.0,100000.0,100000.0,102000.0,100000.0,102000.0,100000.0,104000.0,104000.0,100000.0,96000.0,96000.0,94000.0,96000.0,104000.0,98000.0,98000.0,100000.0,125000.0,100000.0,94000.0,112000.0,94000.0,92000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,88000.0,88000.0,90000.0,88000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[58000.0,55000.0,60000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,58000.0,56000.0,57000.0,56000.0,68000.0,66000.0,57000.0,55000.0,60000.0,58000.0,57000.0,56000.0,60000.0,58000.0,57000.0,58000.0,72000.0,68000.0,59000.0,57000.0,62000.0,60000.0,62000.0,59000.0,63000.0,62000.0,60000.0,64000.0,75000.0,70000.0,62000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,61000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,63000.0,65000.0,78000.0,72000.0,68000.0,75000.0,330000.0,170000.0,95000.0,82000.0,85000.0,78000.0,80000.0,90000.0,118000.0,122000.0,128000.0,105000.0,92000.0,84000.0,78000.0,72000.0,76000.0,82000.0,84000.0,82000.0,112000.0,105000.0,84000.0,95000.0,86000.0,82000.0,84000.0,80000.0,86000.0,90000.0,86000.0,185000.0,132000.0,102000.0,90000.0,86000.0,92000.0,86000.0,86000.0,90000.0,95000.0,92000.0,118000.0,96000.0,128000.0,104000.0,92000.0,112000.0,96000.0,90000.0,92000.0,96000.0,100000.0,108000.0,118000.0,108000.0,138000.0,210000.0,148000.0,92000.0,128000.0,84000.0,86000.0,104000.0,92000.0,88000.0,92000.0,96000.0,118000.0,100000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[38200.0,36500.0,42200.0,38100.0,41200.0,38900.0,41900.0,40100.0,39000.0,41800.0,43200.0,46100.0,39800.0,36800.0,44100.0,39300.0,42900.0,40200.0,43700.0,41400.0,40700.0,43600.0,45200.0,48100.0,41400.0,37900.0,45900.0,40500.0,44700.0,41800.0,45500.0,43100.0,42400.0,91200.0,59300.0,51600.0,43100.0,39000.0,47800.0,42100.0,46500.0,43500.0,47300.0,44800.0,44100.0,47100.0,48900.0,52300.0,45200.0,43800.0,74200.0,61800.0,48200.0,46700.0,49200.0,47600.0,45800.0,49300.0,50500.0,54200.0,46400.0,40800.0,50200.0,46800.0,49500.0,47500.0,50400.0,48900.0,46600.0,50700.0,52100.0,55800.0,49900.0,43900.0,54800.0,50900.0,53900.0,51200.0,54900.0,53200.0,50800.0,162800.0,109500.0,78200.0,56500.0,51400.0,62800.0,56200.0,59300.0,57400.0,60600.0,59400.0,56300.0,64800.0,62200.0,66800.0,63200.0,95600.0,108300.0,68500.0,71400.0,68800.0,72400.0,81800.0,85300.0,75900.0,77600.0,141500.0,69800.0,46800.0,88700.0,50600.0,53300.0,51500.0,54400.0,53200.0,50700.0,54500.0,55800.0,59800.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[195000.0,185000.0,195000.0,190000.0,195000.0,200000.0,205000.0,200000.0,205000.0,215000.0,245000.0,235000.0,225000.0,215000.0,225000.0,220000.0,225000.0,230000.0,235000.0,230000.0,235000.0,245000.0,275000.0,265000.0,245000.0,235000.0,245000.0,250000.0,330000.0,305000.0,260000.0,250000.0,255000.0,265000.0,295000.0,285000.0,265000.0,255000.0,265000.0,260000.0,265000.0,270000.0,275000.0,270000.0,280000.0,295000.0,330000.0,315000.0,300000.0,295000.0,780000.0,640000.0,450000.0,400000.0,375000.0,360000.0,350000.0,365000.0,420000.0,390000.0,370000.0,355000.0,520000.0,430000.0,385000.0,365000.0,355000.0,350000.0,355000.0,380000.0,430000.0,400000.0,385000.0,355000.0,360000.0,345000.0,335000.0,330000.0,340000.0,330000.0,345000.0,720000.0,560000.0,430000.0,400000.0,375000.0,370000.0,360000.0,355000.0,355000.0,365000.0,355000.0,385000.0,400000.0,440000.0,410000.0,385000.0,660000.0,470000.0,410000.0,385000.0,395000.0,380000.0,370000.0,520000.0,460000.0,430000.0,700000.0,470000.0,620000.0,430000.0,395000.0,380000.0,375000.0,425000.0,385000.0,385000.0,395000.0,435000.0,405000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,75000.0,45000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,41000.0,60000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,50000.0,52000.0,120000.0,95000.0,70000.0,60000.0,55000.0,55000.0,55000.0,58000.0,65000.0,60000.0,55000.0,50000.0,49000.0,47000.0,47000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,47000.0,49000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,50000.0,52000.0,180000.0,110000.0,65000.0,60000.0,65000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,60000.0,130000.0,75000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,65000.0,70000.0,160000.0,80000.0,65000.0,100000.0,60000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,56000.0,58000.0,55000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[30000.0,28500.0,29500.0,29000.0,30000.0,29500.0,27500.0,29000.0,30000.0,29500.0,31000.0,36000.0,46000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30500.0,30000.0,42000.0,28500.0,29500.0,30500.0,30000.0,32500.0,33000.0,32000.0,40000.0,33000.0,33000.0,55000.0,38000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,35000.0,35500.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35500.0,34500.0,36500.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,68000.0,62000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,43000.0,46000.0,47500.0,45000.0,44500.0,45000.0,44000.0,44500.0,43000.0,42000.0,43500.0,47000.0,45000.0,46500.0,47000.0,46000.0,45500.0,46500.0,45500.0,46000.0,44500.0,43500.0,45000.0,46500.0,135000.0,75000.0,62000.0,50000.0,49500.0,50500.0,49500.0,50000.0,56000.0,48500.0,54000.0,52000.0,50500.0,53000.0,54000.0,53000.0,75000.0,68000.0,54000.0,54000.0,52500.0,51000.0,53000.0,63000.0,58000.0,54500.0,105000.0,72000.0,56000.0,95000.0,62000.0,57000.0,55000.0,53500.0,55500.0,57000.0,56500.0,68000.0,58000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[672000.0,608000.0,640000.0,615000.0,608000.0,595000.0,590000.0,608000.0,640000.0,680000.0,715000.0,690000.0,714000.0,646000.0,680000.0,655000.0,646000.0,855000.0,720000.0,646000.0,680000.0,720000.0,760000.0,735000.0,756000.0,684000.0,864000.0,690000.0,740000.0,670000.0,660000.0,684000.0,720000.0,765000.0,805000.0,780000.0,810000.0,730000.0,770000.0,740000.0,730000.0,715000.0,710000.0,730000.0,770000.0,815000.0,860000.0,830000.0,870000.0,865000.0,1535000.0,1155000.0,905000.0,810000.0,765000.0,790000.0,830000.0,880000.0,930000.0,895000.0,915000.0,825000.0,870000.0,835000.0,825000.0,810000.0,800000.0,825000.0,870000.0,920000.0,975000.0,940000.0,850000.0,770000.0,810000.0,780000.0,770000.0,755000.0,745000.0,770000.0,810000.0,1505000.0,1225000.0,1050000.0,900000.0,780000.0,780000.0,750000.0,740000.0,725000.0,720000.0,740000.0,780000.0,825000.0,875000.0,840000.0,790000.0,735000.0,750000.0,720000.0,715000.0,700000.0,725000.0,785000.0,940000.0,1155000.0,1430000.0,2105000.0,980000.0,755000.0,725000.0,660000.0,655000.0,640000.0,635000.0,655000.0,690000.0,730000.0,775000.0,745000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[68500.0,63800.0,67200.0,70400.0,68100.0,71300.0,75600.0,82900.0,78400.0,80700.0,83900.0,112600.0,86200.0,79500.0,83700.0,82600.0,82900.0,85300.0,87800.0,88900.0,86700.0,90500.0,92400.0,116800.0,72500.0,67900.0,70300.0,72600.0,71800.0,73900.0,77400.0,78100.0,76200.0,81300.0,85600.0,80200.0,78900.0,74600.0,77200.0,79800.0,78900.0,81300.0,84700.0,86100.0,83500.0,88900.0,93200.0,89400.0,94800.0,90200.0,132500.0,158400.0,165700.0,142600.0,136800.0,132900.0,128700.0,137600.0,151300.0,139800.0,121600.0,112900.0,118700.0,116400.0,119800.0,123500.0,128300.0,126900.0,121800.0,133400.0,142600.0,134900.0,129700.0,124300.0,130800.0,135600.0,134200.0,137900.0,141500.0,144300.0,150800.0,296000.0,374500.0,285400.0,224300.0,207600.0,203400.0,196800.0,199700.0,202900.0,208400.0,203600.0,199200.0,218700.0,269800.0,241500.0,230400.0,217900.0,214600.0,208900.0,211800.0,215700.0,231200.0,220300.0,212600.0,228900.0,240700.0,261500.0,315600.0,486900.0,181500.0,108400.0,112700.0,116900.0,121300.0,117800.0,112600.0,126400.0,139200.0,124900.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[5200.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5000.0,4800.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,6800.0,6500.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,6800.0,6200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5100.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,5400.0,6200.0,6600.0,5800.0,6000.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4800.0,5300.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[28750.0,26820.0,29540.0,30880.0,30220.0,28640.0,27820.0,30120.0,32780.0,32250.0,30950.0,29510.0,31500.0,29760.0,32400.0,33880.0,33280.0,31490.0,30540.0,33250.0,36150.0,35520.0,34220.0,32640.0,34160.0,32420.0,35140.0,36720.0,36180.0,34290.0,32930.0,35830.0,38940.0,38310.0,36930.0,35350.0,37040.0,35180.0,38020.0,39660.0,39130.0,37260.0,35820.0,39140.0,42460.0,41730.0,40210.0,38540.0,39820.0,42650.0,76890.0,95240.0,70580.0,57420.0,51260.0,49830.0,48710.0,47490.0,53240.0,60150.0,55860.0,51190.0,52930.0,55810.0,54190.0,51630.0,50740.0,59380.0,57430.0,53980.0,54760.0,56890.0,55210.0,64320.0,61890.0,57980.0,58450.0,60030.0,57920.0,58960.0,62310.0,60520.0,57340.0,59070.0,56110.0,52140.0,53080.0,50970.0,50110.0,51850.0,49970.0,52460.0,55070.0,53960.0,52020.0,53440.0,54580.0,56940.0,53860.0,52790.0,54320.0,55910.0,57240.0,74820.0,96520.0,62950.0,59030.0,61180.0,128500.0,72300.0,54800.0,53200.0,55100.0,58200.0,56300.0,58700.0,60800.0,62900.0,60200.0,64100.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[16000.0,15700.0,17000.0,16300.0,16600.0,16900.0,16000.0,16400.0,16500.0,17000.0,16400.0,17800.0,16800.0,16500.0,18000.0,16900.0,17200.0,17500.0,16800.0,17000.0,17400.0,17700.0,17300.0,18500.0,17500.0,17200.0,18900.0,17800.0,18100.0,18400.0,17600.0,17900.0,18200.0,18600.0,18000.0,19500.0,18300.0,18000.0,19800.0,18500.0,18800.0,19300.0,18400.0,18800.0,19200.0,19800.0,19100.0,20700.0,18500.0,20500.0,46000.0,38000.0,32000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,28000.0,27000.0,23500.0,22000.0,24500.0,23000.0,23500.0,24000.0,22500.0,23500.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24500.0,23000.0,23500.0,24000.0,22500.0,23500.0,25000.0,37000.0,33000.0,28000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25500.0,24000.0,24500.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25500.0,26500.0,25500.0,27500.0,24000.0,31000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,31000.0,26000.0,32000.0,27000.0,29000.0,36000.0,45000.0,27000.0,25000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26500.0,27000.0,25500.0,26500.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29500.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4300.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,3850.0,3750.0,3700.0,3600.0,3550.0,3650.0,3750.0,3850.0,3900.0,3800.0,4200.0,4100.0,6000.0,6500.0,5800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4100.0,4200.0,4300.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,5000.0,14000.0,9000.0,6000.0,5000.0,6500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4800.0,5000.0,5500.0,11000.0,6500.0,5000.0,9000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0]}},{"title":"Ford Thunderbird","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Ford Thunderbird\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[30041,30029,32979,30881,31551,32606,31492,31442,31232,28989,26244,26460,29373,26564,30024,29184,30112,28873,30173,31766,28276,28088,27280,26704,29486,26485,29490,30678,30606,29973,32940,32311,30500,27643,23604,23756,26815,23838,26645,25611,27564,26981,27988,28773,35394,29568,23524,22802,24328,22759,25131,27775,29375,27577,31444,31049,28680,27850,24663,24576,27434,25302,30878,30409,31928,27949,31029,29580,26521,25629,22185,21559,23050,21412,23832,25212,26471,25549,27032,31246,25857,24531,22730,21418,24890,23359,26856,27258,29919,29627,31063,29372,27961,25474,22586,23586,24219,22714,25852,26164,27183,24385,23806,24268,23442,23143,20983,20651,21686,20778,24105,23327,24895,24629,24406,26110,23872,22434,18776,17953],"flat_reference_value":16923.86705331611,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[15400.0,14900.0,16500.0,16200.0,17400.0,18300.0,18000.0,17600.0,16400.0,16300.0,15100.0,15000.0,15700.0,14300.0,15900.0,15800.0,16800.0,17000.0,17600.0,17100.0,16100.0,15900.0,14800.0,14700.0,15300.0,14000.0,15600.0,15700.0,16500.0,16800.0,17500.0,16900.0,15600.0,15800.0,14700.0,14500.0,15000.0,14000.0,15400.0,15800.0,16600.0,16900.0,17500.0,17000.0,15800.0,15900.0,15400.0,15100.0,15400.0,14700.0,16600.0,18100.0,19000.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,17100.0,17000.0,15900.0,15800.0,16600.0,15300.0,17100.0,17300.0,18300.0,18100.0,18800.0,18300.0,16900.0,17100.0,15800.0,15700.0,16200.0,14800.0,16500.0,16400.0,17400.0,17700.0,18400.0,17800.0,16500.0,16700.0,15400.0,15200.0,16000.0,14600.0,16200.0,16200.0,17200.0,17500.0,18200.0,17600.0,16400.0,18300.0,15700.0,15000.0,15700.0,14800.0,16000.0,15900.0,17000.0,17200.0,17900.0,17500.0,16100.0,16300.0,15000.0,14900.0,15700.0,14400.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,17300.0,18000.0,17500.0,16200.0,16300.0,15000.0,14800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[54200.0,49800.0,54600.0,54100.0,56800.0,56200.0,58400.0,57900.0,52300.0,50900.0,47200.0,46500.0,53800.0,47900.0,54300.0,53900.0,56400.0,55800.0,58100.0,57300.0,51800.0,50400.0,46900.0,46100.0,53400.0,47400.0,53900.0,53200.0,55900.0,55100.0,57600.0,56800.0,51200.0,49800.0,46400.0,45900.0,52900.0,47100.0,53600.0,52800.0,55400.0,54900.0,60200.0,56700.0,51400.0,50100.0,51800.0,48200.0,54100.0,49600.0,47800.0,54900.0,60800.0,61400.0,63200.0,62500.0,56800.0,55200.0,51400.0,50900.0,78400.0,54200.0,58900.0,57600.0,60100.0,58400.0,59800.0,58700.0,53400.0,51900.0,48300.0,47600.0,53900.0,47800.0,53400.0,52600.0,55100.0,54800.0,56400.0,55300.0,49900.0,48600.0,45100.0,44400.0,50800.0,45200.0,50600.0,49800.0,52100.0,51500.0,53400.0,52600.0,47400.0,54300.0,43800.0,42900.0,48600.0,44700.0,48400.0,47600.0,49800.0,49100.0,50900.0,50200.0,45300.0,44100.0,40900.0,40200.0,46100.0,41200.0,46400.0,45900.0,48300.0,50400.0,49800.0,49100.0,43900.0,42800.0,39600.0,38900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[45200.0,41800.0,46100.0,48500.0,49200.0,47600.0,48900.0,47100.0,43500.0,42800.0,40600.0,41500.0,46300.0,43100.0,47200.0,49800.0,50400.0,48200.0,49100.0,46800.0,44200.0,43000.0,41200.0,42100.0,45800.0,42500.0,46900.0,48100.0,47800.0,46200.0,47500.0,45300.0,42100.0,41600.0,39800.0,40900.0,44200.0,41000.0,45100.0,46800.0,47200.0,45600.0,52100.0,46500.0,42800.0,41500.0,39200.0,40100.0,43800.0,41200.0,48500.0,56200.0,54100.0,49800.0,48200.0,46100.0,43200.0,42500.0,41100.0,42000.0,45200.0,42100.0,46300.0,47500.0,46900.0,45200.0,46100.0,44800.0,41900.0,40800.0,38900.0,39800.0,42800.0,39500.0,43200.0,44800.0,45100.0,43600.0,44200.0,42500.0,39800.0,38900.0,37200.0,38100.0,41200.0,38400.0,41900.0,43500.0,43800.0,42100.0,42900.0,41200.0,38600.0,37900.0,36100.0,37000.0,39800.0,37100.0,40500.0,42100.0,42500.0,41000.0,41800.0,40200.0,37500.0,36800.0,35200.0,36000.0,38900.0,36200.0,39500.0,41000.0,41400.0,39900.0,40600.0,39100.0,36500.0,35800.0,34200.0,35100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[42000.0,40500.0,45000.0,46500.0,49000.0,48500.0,49500.0,48000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40500.0,39000.0,40000.0,38000.0,42500.0,44000.0,46500.0,46000.0,47000.0,45500.0,41500.0,40500.0,38500.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,41500.0,44000.0,43500.0,44500.0,43000.0,39000.0,38500.0,36500.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,37500.0,39000.0,41500.0,41000.0,42000.0,40500.0,37000.0,36500.0,34500.0,33000.0,34500.0,33000.0,37000.0,42000.0,43500.0,41000.0,41000.0,39500.0,35500.0,34500.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,36500.0,37000.0,36000.0,33000.0,32500.0,30500.0,29500.0,30500.0,29000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34500.0,35000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30500.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27500.0,30500.0,31500.0,33500.0,33000.0,33500.0,32500.0,29500.0,29000.0,27500.0,26500.0,27500.0,26500.0,29000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31500.0,32000.0,31000.0,28500.0,28000.0,26500.0,25500.0,26500.0,26000.0,28500.0,29500.0,31500.0,31000.0,31500.0,30500.0,28000.0,29500.0,26500.0,25500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[72000.0,68000.0,71000.0,70000.0,72000.0,71000.0,73000.0,72000.0,67000.0,66000.0,65000.0,66000.0,70000.0,63000.0,67000.0,66000.0,67000.0,66000.0,68000.0,67000.0,62000.0,62000.0,61000.0,62000.0,66000.0,59000.0,63000.0,61000.0,62000.0,61000.0,63000.0,62000.0,57000.0,58000.0,57000.0,58000.0,62000.0,56000.0,60000.0,58000.0,59000.0,58000.0,60000.0,59000.0,55000.0,55000.0,54000.0,56000.0,59000.0,55000.0,58000.0,64000.0,66000.0,63000.0,63000.0,62000.0,58000.0,57000.0,56000.0,58000.0,64000.0,58000.0,60000.0,59000.0,59000.0,58000.0,59000.0,58000.0,54000.0,54000.0,53000.0,54000.0,57000.0,52000.0,55000.0,53000.0,54000.0,53000.0,54000.0,53000.0,50000.0,50000.0,49000.0,50000.0,53000.0,48000.0,51000.0,50000.0,51000.0,50000.0,52000.0,51000.0,48000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,51000.0,47000.0,49000.0,48000.0,49000.0,48000.0,49000.0,49000.0,46000.0,46000.0,45000.0,46000.0,49000.0,44000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,44000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[24500.0,25800.0,26300.0,26800.0,28400.0,29200.0,29800.0,28900.0,26100.0,25400.0,23900.0,24600.0,23800.0,24900.0,25600.0,26200.0,27800.0,28500.0,29100.0,28000.0,25300.0,24600.0,23200.0,23800.0,22900.0,24000.0,24700.0,25300.0,26700.0,27400.0,27900.0,26800.0,24400.0,23700.0,22400.0,23000.0,21900.0,23100.0,23700.0,24300.0,25600.0,26200.0,26700.0,25700.0,23300.0,22600.0,21400.0,22000.0,20900.0,22000.0,21500.0,18700.0,19400.0,20600.0,21400.0,21000.0,20200.0,19800.0,19200.0,20100.0,20300.0,21400.0,22100.0,22600.0,24600.0,23700.0,23400.0,22600.0,21200.0,20600.0,19700.0,20400.0,19400.0,20500.0,21200.0,21700.0,23000.0,23400.0,22800.0,22100.0,20400.0,19800.0,18900.0,19500.0,18300.0,19300.0,19900.0,20400.0,21700.0,22100.0,21600.0,20900.0,19300.0,18700.0,17900.0,18400.0,17500.0,18400.0,19000.0,19500.0,20700.0,21100.0,20600.0,19900.0,18400.0,17800.0,17000.0,17500.0,16900.0,17800.0,18300.0,18800.0,20000.0,20400.0,20000.0,19300.0,17800.0,17200.0,16500.0,17000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[23850.0,20420.0,24810.0,22030.0,23570.0,23180.0,25790.0,23140.0,22010.0,20900.0,21470.0,18490.0,22460.0,21710.0,21630.0,22970.0,22240.0,23720.0,22690.0,23860.0,20360.0,21590.0,19870.0,18710.0,21410.0,20510.0,22360.0,20600.0,22710.0,22380.0,29850.0,24290.0,19590.0,21170.0,18910.0,18000.0,22280.0,18380.0,22150.0,20630.0,21410.0,22830.0,20950.0,21660.0,20390.0,19740.0,19290.0,16780.0,20370.0,19130.0,26330.0,27570.0,24910.0,23420.0,21180.0,21620.0,19010.0,20510.0,17600.0,16770.0,35240.0,21610.0,19800.0,20190.0,19110.0,21240.0,20530.0,21350.0,18230.0,19120.0,18470.0,16070.0,19710.0,16910.0,19960.0,18400.0,20450.0,19570.0,20880.0,18520.0,18010.0,26550.0,19760.0,16180.0,18320.0,17540.0,18930.0,18900.0,25420.0,18730.0,19990.0,18090.0,18270.0,17520.0,16770.0,14880.0,18600.0,15970.0,18470.0,18620.0,17640.0,18830.0,18740.0,25480.0,26890.0,18790.0,15710.0,14950.0,17600.0,23590.0,19600.0,16930.0,18070.0,17270.0,18620.0,17020.0,16850.0,16310.0,15460.0,13980.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[44960.0,41292.0,43423.0,45542.0,47204.0,47970.0,48732.0,47281.0,44075.0,42204.0,40779.0,40236.0,42314.0,40029.0,42096.0,44153.0,45766.0,46509.0,47248.0,45842.0,42733.0,40918.0,39537.0,39012.0,41026.0,38812.0,40817.0,46235.0,46594.0,45096.0,45814.0,44451.0,41437.0,39678.0,38339.0,37830.0,39785.0,37638.0,39583.0,41517.0,43035.0,43736.0,44432.0,43110.0,40188.0,38483.0,41647.0,38526.0,38588.0,38696.0,42999.0,44294.0,43828.0,42419.0,43095.0,41813.0,38978.0,37324.0,36065.0,35587.0,37426.0,35407.0,37236.0,39057.0,41699.0,41145.0,41800.0,40557.0,37808.0,36204.0,34984.0,34520.0,36304.0,34346.0,36122.0,37888.0,39275.0,39916.0,43797.0,41314.0,36681.0,35124.0,33941.0,33493.0,35224.0,34657.0,35047.0,36761.0,38107.0,38729.0,39347.0,38179.0,35591.0,34082.0,32935.0,32499.0,34180.0,37188.0,36051.0,35673.0,36980.0,37584.0,38184.0,37051.0,34541.0,35723.0,31963.0,31540.0,33172.0,31384.0,36968.0,37392.0,36966.0,36476.0,37059.0,35917.0,33521.0,33706.0,31019.0,30609.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[11500.0,11600.0,12250.0,13000.0,13400.0,13100.0,13250.0,12750.0,12500.0,12500.0,11750.0,11250.0,10900.0,11000.0,11600.0,12300.0,15600.0,12400.0,12500.0,12000.0,11800.0,11800.0,11100.0,10600.0,10300.0,10400.0,11000.0,11600.0,12000.0,11800.0,11900.0,11400.0,11200.0,11200.0,10500.0,10100.0,9900.0,10000.0,10600.0,11200.0,11600.0,11300.0,11400.0,11000.0,10800.0,10800.0,10200.0,9700.0,10600.0,10700.0,11300.0,12000.0,16300.0,12100.0,12200.0,11700.0,11500.0,11500.0,10800.0,10400.0,9400.0,9500.0,10000.0,13600.0,10900.0,10700.0,10800.0,10400.0,10200.0,10200.0,9600.0,9200.0,8900.0,9000.0,9500.0,10100.0,10400.0,10200.0,10300.0,9900.0,9700.0,9700.0,9100.0,8700.0,8500.0,8600.0,9000.0,9600.0,9800.0,9700.0,9800.0,9400.0,9200.0,9200.0,8600.0,8300.0,8200.0,8300.0,8700.0,9300.0,9500.0,9300.0,9400.0,9100.0,8900.0,13900.0,8400.0,8000.0,14700.0,8800.0,9300.0,9900.0,10200.0,10000.0,10100.0,9700.0,9500.0,13500.0,8900.0,8600.0],"meta/muse-ember":[28900.0,29100.0,31600.0,35100.0,34900.0,35800.0,33100.0,34800.0,39700.0,31000.0,30300.0,26700.0,29100.0,27300.0,32100.0,34900.0,33500.0,33900.0,31800.0,33300.0,30200.0,31200.0,28200.0,25600.0,27000.0,27200.0,30800.0,31800.0,34000.0,33500.0,30400.0,32200.0,30100.0,30500.0,27000.0,25800.0,26900.0,25300.0,30000.0,36100.0,31900.0,32000.0,29600.0,31700.0,28500.0,28800.0,26300.0,24100.0,28200.0,27900.0,34000.0,39600.0,38000.0,35300.0,33400.0,33700.0,31500.0,31200.0,29900.0,27500.0,28400.0,27200.0,31400.0,33800.0,33700.0,34400.0,31000.0,32200.0,29800.0,29900.0,27000.0,25300.0,26600.0,25000.0,29200.0,31400.0,34200.0,31400.0,29100.0,30900.0,28300.0,28300.0,25600.0,24000.0,25900.0,23900.0,28400.0,30000.0,30200.0,30300.0,27800.0,30300.0,27500.0,30300.0,25900.0,22900.0,25200.0,23700.0,27900.0,33500.0,30500.0,29400.0,27500.0,29500.0,27000.0,27100.0,27200.0,22400.0,24500.0,22800.0,26800.0,28300.0,28500.0,28600.0,26500.0,27800.0,25700.0,25800.0,23500.0,21600.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[32000.0,32640.0,33600.0,32960.0,32320.0,31360.0,30720.0,31040.0,32320.0,33280.0,32960.0,28800.0,34000.0,34680.0,35700.0,35020.0,34340.0,33320.0,32640.0,32980.0,34340.0,35360.0,35020.0,30600.0,36000.0,36720.0,37800.0,37080.0,36360.0,35280.0,34560.0,34920.0,36360.0,37440.0,37080.0,32400.0,38000.0,38760.0,39900.0,39140.0,38380.0,37240.0,39398.0,38703.0,38380.0,39520.0,39140.0,34200.0,40000.0,45696.0,53130.0,44496.0,41612.0,39200.0,38400.0,38800.0,40400.0,41600.0,41200.0,36000.0,43000.0,43860.0,45150.0,44290.0,43430.0,42140.0,41280.0,41710.0,43430.0,44720.0,44290.0,38700.0,42000.0,42840.0,44100.0,43260.0,42420.0,41160.0,54432.0,59073.0,55146.0,48048.0,43260.0,37800.0,38000.0,38760.0,39900.0,39140.0,38380.0,37240.0,36480.0,36860.0,38380.0,39520.0,39140.0,34200.0,33000.0,33660.0,34650.0,33990.0,33330.0,32340.0,31680.0,32010.0,33330.0,39468.0,36709.0,29700.0,30000.0,39780.0,39375.0,33990.0,30300.0,29400.0,28800.0,29100.0,30300.0,31200.0,30900.0,27000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[47500.0,45000.0,47500.0,48500.0,48000.0,46000.0,45500.0,44000.0,46500.0,50500.0,50000.0,47000.0,48000.0,45500.0,48500.0,49500.0,49000.0,47500.0,49500.0,45500.0,47500.0,51500.0,51000.0,48000.0,49000.0,46500.0,49000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48500.0,51500.0,47500.0,49000.0,52500.0,52000.0,48500.0,50000.0,47500.0,50000.0,51000.0,50500.0,48500.0,47500.0,46000.0,48500.0,52500.0,52000.0,49500.0,51500.0,48500.0,51000.0,53000.0,54000.0,54000.0,79000.0,61000.0,56000.0,61000.0,57500.0,53500.0,52500.0,49000.0,52000.0,53000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49500.0,47500.0,49500.0,53000.0,52500.0,49000.0,50500.0,47000.0,50000.0,51000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47500.0,46000.0,48500.0,51500.0,51000.0,48000.0,49000.0,46000.0,48500.0,49500.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0,44500.0,46500.0,50000.0,49500.0,46500.0,47500.0,44500.0,47000.0,48000.0,47500.0,45500.0,44500.0,43500.0,45500.0,52500.0,50500.0,46000.0,46500.0,43500.0,47500.0,48000.0,47000.0,44500.0,68000.0,52000.0,47500.0,50500.0,49500.0,45500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[10500.0,10200.0,11200.0,11800.0,12200.0,12000.0,11800.0,11500.0,10800.0,10600.0,10200.0,9800.0,10300.0,10000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11900.0,11700.0,11500.0,11200.0,10500.0,10300.0,10000.0,9600.0,10100.0,9800.0,10700.0,11200.0,11600.0,11400.0,11200.0,10900.0,10200.0,10000.0,9700.0,9300.0,9800.0,9500.0,10400.0,10900.0,11300.0,11100.0,10900.0,10600.0,9900.0,9700.0,9400.0,9100.0,9500.0,9300.0,9800.0,10500.0,10800.0,10600.0,10400.0,10200.0,9700.0,9500.0,9300.0,9000.0,9400.0,9200.0,10000.0,10300.0,10600.0,10400.0,10200.0,9900.0,9300.0,9100.0,8900.0,8700.0,9000.0,8800.0,9500.0,9800.0,10100.0,9900.0,9700.0,9400.0,8900.0,8700.0,8500.0,8300.0,8700.0,8500.0,9200.0,9500.0,9800.0,9600.0,9400.0,9100.0,8600.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,8400.0,8200.0,8800.0,9100.0,9400.0,9200.0,9000.0,8700.0,8200.0,8100.0,7900.0,7700.0,8100.0,7900.0,8500.0,8800.0,9000.0,8900.0,8700.0,8400.0,7900.0,7800.0,7600.0,7400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[7412.0,5968.0,6402.0,6103.0,7688.0,7864.0,8271.0,8012.0,6889.0,6304.0,5792.0,5231.0,7351.0,5882.0,6275.0,5961.0,7482.0,7667.0,8194.0,7922.0,6673.0,6248.0,5714.0,5092.0,7218.0,5836.0,6161.0,5902.0,7399.0,7613.0,8057.0,7864.0,6572.0,6129.0,5617.0,5074.0,7104.0,5761.0,6038.0,5819.0,7289.0,7496.0,7972.0,7745.0,6458.0,6072.0,5567.0,5012.0,6879.0,5531.0,5724.0,5316.0,6488.0,7023.0,7412.0,7189.0,6142.0,5688.0,5237.0,4768.0,7182.0,5763.0,6088.0,5841.0,7332.0,7571.0,8014.0,7786.0,6572.0,6023.0,5531.0,5012.0,7958.0,6289.0,6652.0,6331.0,8067.0,8294.0,8748.0,8532.0,7187.0,6629.0,6104.0,5487.0,8034.0,6358.0,6701.0,6422.0,8119.0,8382.0,8837.0,8604.0,7256.0,6714.0,6168.0,5541.0,8286.0,6534.0,6892.0,6578.0,8387.0,8631.0,9124.0,8962.0,7489.0,6908.0,6342.0,5701.0,11842.0,8963.0,8742.0,8421.0,10287.0,10923.0,11954.0,11567.0,9812.0,10789.0,8294.0,7421.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[7600.0,6900.0,7300.0,7700.0,8100.0,8500.0,8800.0,8300.0,7800.0,7500.0,7100.0,6800.0,7400.0,6800.0,7200.0,7500.0,7900.0,8300.0,8600.0,8100.0,7600.0,7300.0,6900.0,6600.0,7200.0,6600.0,7000.0,7400.0,7800.0,8200.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,7000.0,6400.0,6800.0,7200.0,7600.0,8000.0,8300.0,7800.0,7300.0,7000.0,6600.0,6300.0,6700.0,6200.0,7500.0,8100.0,8000.0,7900.0,8000.0,7600.0,7200.0,6900.0,6500.0,6300.0,6600.0,6100.0,6500.0,6900.0,7300.0,7600.0,7900.0,7400.0,7000.0,6700.0,6300.0,6100.0,6400.0,6000.0,6300.0,6700.0,7100.0,7400.0,7700.0,7200.0,6800.0,6500.0,6200.0,5900.0,6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,6500.0,6900.0,7200.0,7500.0,7000.0,6600.0,6300.0,6000.0,5800.0,6000.0,5600.0,5900.0,6300.0,6700.0,7000.0,7300.0,6800.0,6400.0,6700.0,5800.0,5600.0,5800.0,5400.0,5700.0,6100.0,6500.0,6800.0,7100.0,6600.0,6200.0,6800.0,5900.0,5700.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[8550.0,8730.0,9450.0,9450.0,9720.0,9450.0,9180.0,8820.0,9000.0,9000.0,8550.0,7920.0,8075.0,8245.0,8925.0,8925.0,9180.0,8925.0,8670.0,8330.0,8500.0,8500.0,8075.0,7480.0,7600.0,7760.0,8400.0,8400.0,8640.0,8400.0,8160.0,7840.0,8000.0,8000.0,7600.0,7040.0,7125.0,7275.0,7875.0,7875.0,8100.0,7875.0,7650.0,7350.0,7500.0,7500.0,7125.0,6600.0,7600.0,7760.0,9240.0,9240.0,9500.0,8820.0,8160.0,7840.0,8000.0,8000.0,7600.0,7040.0,6650.0,6790.0,7350.0,7350.0,7560.0,7350.0,7140.0,6860.0,7000.0,7000.0,6650.0,6160.0,6460.0,6596.0,7140.0,7140.0,7344.0,7140.0,6936.0,6664.0,6800.0,6800.0,6460.0,5984.0,6175.0,6305.0,6825.0,6825.0,7020.0,6825.0,6630.0,6370.0,6500.0,6500.0,6175.0,5720.0,5700.0,5820.0,6300.0,6300.0,6480.0,6300.0,6120.0,5880.0,6000.0,6000.0,5700.0,5280.0,5225.0,5335.0,5775.0,5775.0,5940.0,5775.0,5610.0,5390.0,5500.0,5500.0,5225.0,4840.0]}},{"title":"Rick Astley discography","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Rick Astley discography\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3394,3774,3933,8998,5374,13029,6474,5130,4250,5735,6327,6374,5004,5164,4321,4141,3915,3361,3663,4439,3923,3286,3002,2964,3325,3861,4279,4536,3764,5100,9254,5457,5912,6460,5932,5129,4248,3321,3586,4626,5035,4561,4819,4178,4755,6146,5713,4642,5169,4250,4198,5841,5169,5049,4882,4817,5240,5636,5634,6852,5545,5571,5735,6369,5969,4593,5822,6111,5643,6195,4605,3776,4540,4318,5450,5601,5945,5478,6138,6864,4719,5955,4521,4293,5932,4780,4379,4313,5336,13642,7321,5615,8534,10285,5800,10656,12431,6338,5721,4636,4301,3987,4675,4312,4956,5803,4372,4297,4545,4233,4284,3759,3938,3693,3419,3815,4174,4064,3713,3620],"flat_reference_value":17068.35306196199,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[6100.0,5800.0,6400.0,6700.0,9200.0,24500.0,17700.0,12600.0,9800.0,8900.0,8600.0,9200.0,7900.0,7100.0,7600.0,8100.0,7500.0,7800.0,8200.0,7900.0,7300.0,7600.0,7200.0,8500.0,7600.0,6900.0,7200.0,7500.0,8700.0,10500.0,19700.0,13600.0,10100.0,9200.0,8800.0,9100.0,8100.0,7300.0,7600.0,7900.0,7500.0,7800.0,8200.0,7900.0,8900.0,14200.0,11000.0,9800.0,8700.0,7900.0,8800.0,9400.0,9000.0,13400.0,10200.0,9300.0,8700.0,9100.0,8600.0,9800.0,9000.0,8200.0,8700.0,9100.0,8800.0,9600.0,15700.0,12000.0,9800.0,9400.0,9100.0,10200.0,9200.0,8400.0,8800.0,9100.0,8900.0,9300.0,9700.0,9200.0,8800.0,9100.0,8500.0,9900.0,9000.0,8200.0,8700.0,9100.0,10300.0,22500.0,15600.0,11100.0,11300.0,21100.0,14600.0,11900.0,11200.0,10300.0,9800.0,9300.0,9100.0,9500.0,9900.0,9400.0,8800.0,9200.0,8600.0,10100.0,9200.0,8300.0,8700.0,9000.0,8700.0,11600.0,10400.0,9200.0,8500.0,8900.0,8300.0,9600.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[7400.0,6900.0,7300.0,10800.0,10200.0,28500.0,14200.0,10400.0,8900.0,8400.0,8100.0,8600.0,8200.0,7300.0,7700.0,8600.0,7500.0,7200.0,7400.0,10600.0,9400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7700.0,7600.0,6800.0,7400.0,8200.0,7800.0,9200.0,14600.0,9500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7400.0,7600.0,7500.0,6700.0,7200.0,8000.0,7100.0,6900.0,7100.0,7300.0,7400.0,9800.0,8700.0,8200.0,7900.0,7200.0,7800.0,9300.0,8400.0,11800.0,8600.0,8200.0,7700.0,7900.0,7800.0,8300.0,8400.0,7600.0,8100.0,9400.0,8000.0,7600.0,10900.0,11400.0,8100.0,7800.0,7500.0,7900.0,7800.0,6900.0,7300.0,8500.0,7200.0,7000.0,8300.0,10500.0,7600.0,7100.0,6800.0,7300.0,7200.0,6400.0,6900.0,7800.0,6800.0,19500.0,12400.0,8600.0,8900.0,15200.0,9400.0,11200.0,14800.0,7400.0,7600.0,7900.0,6700.0,6800.0,6600.0,6500.0,6400.0,9800.0,7200.0,7100.0,6800.0,5800.0,6200.0,7100.0,5900.0,5800.0,6000.0,5900.0,5600.0,5700.0,5600.0,6100.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2450.0,2320.0,2680.0,3850.0,4900.0,18400.0,11200.0,6700.0,5300.0,7100.0,4600.0,4150.0,3800.0,3350.0,3600.0,4450.0,3900.0,3750.0,3600.0,3450.0,3300.0,3400.0,3250.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3350.0,4200.0,3950.0,6200.0,9850.0,5600.0,4300.0,3900.0,3650.0,3800.0,3600.0,3250.0,3450.0,4350.0,3700.0,3650.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,5900.0,5100.0,4200.0,3550.0,3300.0,3450.0,4500.0,3900.0,3800.0,3650.0,3550.0,3400.0,3600.0,3450.0,3900.0,3650.0,3300.0,3500.0,4400.0,3600.0,3550.0,4200.0,3750.0,4600.0,4100.0,3500.0,3750.0,3450.0,3200.0,3400.0,4300.0,3850.0,4100.0,4050.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3350.0,3600.0,3400.0,3150.0,3350.0,4150.0,3800.0,10500.0,6900.0,4800.0,4950.0,7400.0,5100.0,4300.0,3800.0,3400.0,3600.0,4400.0,3750.0,3900.0,3650.0,3500.0,3700.0,5200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3600.0,3300.0,3450.0,4200.0,3650.0,3550.0,3500.0,3400.0,3350.0,3500.0,3400.0,3650.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[11500.0,11000.0,11800.0,13000.0,16000.0,26000.0,19000.0,15000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,11500.0,11500.0,12500.0,11000.0,10800.0,10800.0,10500.0,10300.0,10500.0,10300.0,10800.0,10500.0,9800.0,10000.0,10800.0,10200.0,11500.0,16500.0,13000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10200.0,10500.0,10000.0,9400.0,9600.0,10200.0,9500.0,9400.0,9500.0,9300.0,9500.0,12500.0,10800.0,10500.0,9800.0,9300.0,10000.0,11500.0,10800.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9200.0,9300.0,9200.0,9600.0,9400.0,8800.0,9000.0,9800.0,9000.0,9000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8800.0,8700.0,9200.0,8800.0,8300.0,8500.0,9200.0,8400.0,8300.0,8300.0,8200.0,8000.0,8100.0,8000.0,8400.0,8100.0,7700.0,7900.0,8500.0,8300.0,12000.0,11500.0,9500.0,9200.0,13500.0,10500.0,9800.0,8800.0,8100.0,8200.0,8800.0,8000.0,8200.0,8000.0,7800.0,7500.0,7600.0,7500.0,7900.0,7500.0,7000.0,7200.0,7800.0,7100.0,7200.0,7100.0,7000.0,6800.0,6900.0,6800.0,7200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,6800.0,7500.0,14500.0,9500.0,7200.0,6800.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,6200.0,5600.0,5900.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5400.0,5500.0,5300.0,5400.0,5500.0,5700.0,5600.0,5200.0,5500.0,5700.0,5800.0,6500.0,9000.0,7000.0,6200.0,6300.0,6400.0,6200.0,6000.0,5500.0,5800.0,6200.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,5800.0,5900.0,7000.0,6500.0,6300.0,6300.0,6000.0,6500.0,7800.0,7500.0,7200.0,7000.0,6900.0,6700.0,6900.0,7000.0,7300.0,7500.0,7200.0,7400.0,7600.0,7300.0,7200.0,8500.0,8000.0,7300.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7000.0,6500.0,6600.0,6500.0,6800.0,6600.0,6700.0,6800.0,6300.0,6200.0,6100.0,6200.0,6200.0,5800.0,6000.0,6000.0,6300.0,10500.0,8200.0,7000.0,6800.0,9800.0,7500.0,7000.0,6800.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,5700.0,5600.0,5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5500.0,5000.0,5200.0,5100.0,5100.0,5000.0,5100.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3400.0,3250.0,3500.0,6500.0,4300.0,11500.0,5600.0,3400.0,3550.0,3600.0,3550.0,3200.0,3650.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,3600.0,3300.0,3600.0,3650.0,3550.0,3250.0,3800.0,3550.0,3700.0,3800.0,3850.0,4100.0,10500.0,5200.0,3900.0,3850.0,3750.0,3400.0,3900.0,3650.0,3800.0,3850.0,3900.0,3950.0,3850.0,3550.0,3900.0,3950.0,3850.0,3500.0,4300.0,4100.0,5300.0,5500.0,4900.0,4400.0,4300.0,4000.0,4400.0,4500.0,6000.0,6200.0,5700.0,5100.0,5250.0,5300.0,5350.0,5400.0,24000.0,10200.0,6400.0,5800.0,5700.0,5300.0,5450.0,5050.0,5200.0,5300.0,5400.0,5400.0,7800.0,5450.0,5550.0,5550.0,5450.0,4950.0,6000.0,5650.0,5800.0,5900.0,6100.0,15500.0,8200.0,6200.0,6400.0,11500.0,7600.0,6300.0,6500.0,6100.0,6300.0,6400.0,6450.0,6550.0,6450.0,6050.0,6600.0,6650.0,6550.0,6050.0,7100.0,6700.0,6850.0,11000.0,8100.0,7300.0,7200.0,6700.0,7300.0,7350.0,7200.0,6700.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1523.0,1389.0,1612.0,2184.0,1598.0,1912.0,1624.0,1551.0,1489.0,4812.0,3054.0,2210.0,1846.0,1692.0,1915.0,1798.0,1872.0,1835.0,1904.0,1861.0,1794.0,1911.0,1805.0,1768.0,2013.0,1788.0,2024.0,1895.0,1967.0,2745.0,4238.0,2812.0,1943.0,2310.0,1908.0,1874.0,1755.0,1598.0,1810.0,1702.0,1771.0,1715.0,1798.0,1764.0,1691.0,1805.0,1719.0,1648.0,2115.0,2024.0,2451.0,2598.0,2412.0,2087.0,2154.0,2121.0,2045.0,2189.0,2052.0,1987.0,2104.0,1921.0,2175.0,2041.0,2128.0,2085.0,4985.0,3952.0,2583.0,2162.0,2038.0,1994.0,1958.0,1785.0,2011.0,1893.0,1972.0,1905.0,2819.0,1961.0,1898.0,2007.0,1902.0,1833.0,2264.0,2051.0,2327.0,2193.0,2280.0,5763.0,3324.0,2305.0,2241.0,5348.0,3439.0,2748.0,2161.0,2068.0,2215.0,2094.0,2182.0,2131.0,2204.0,2613.0,2097.0,4726.0,3345.0,2451.0,1963.0,1782.0,2512.0,1904.0,1975.0,1938.0,2001.0,1954.0,1891.0,1998.0,1896.0,1812.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[3900.0,3600.0,3800.0,4700.0,5900.0,14900.0,11300.0,6300.0,5400.0,5100.0,5600.0,6000.0,5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,6200.0,5600.0,5900.0,6400.0,5800.0,5500.0,5700.0,5900.0,6300.0,5600.0,5400.0,5700.0,6600.0,6300.0,7200.0,11800.0,7600.0,6400.0,6100.0,6300.0,6800.0,6200.0,5900.0,6100.0,7000.0,6400.0,6800.0,7100.0,6500.0,6900.0,9700.0,7900.0,7200.0,6500.0,6200.0,7400.0,8600.0,7300.0,6900.0,6600.0,6400.0,6700.0,6900.0,7200.0,7600.0,7000.0,6800.0,7300.0,8400.0,7600.0,8100.0,15800.0,11200.0,8400.0,8000.0,8300.0,8700.0,8100.0,7800.0,8200.0,9400.0,8500.0,9100.0,9800.0,8700.0,8400.0,8600.0,8900.0,9300.0,8600.0,8300.0,8700.0,9900.0,9200.0,13600.0,10400.0,9100.0,9400.0,12900.0,10100.0,9500.0,9000.0,8700.0,9100.0,10300.0,9500.0,10200.0,11400.0,9600.0,9200.0,9800.0,10600.0,9900.0,8900.0,8500.0,8800.0,9800.0,9000.0,9600.0,10100.0,8900.0,8600.0,8800.0,8700.0,8300.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[280.0,260.0,300.0,340.0,290.0,310.0,450.0,360.0,320.0,300.0,330.0,350.0,360.0,340.0,380.0,420.0,390.0,410.0,700.0,500.0,430.0,410.0,450.0,480.0,460.0,440.0,480.0,520.0,500.0,540.0,900.0,700.0,560.0,540.0,600.0,650.0,600.0,560.0,620.0,660.0,640.0,680.0,950.0,720.0,650.0,630.0,680.0,720.0,700.0,660.0,750.0,900.0,780.0,760.0,1100.0,850.0,760.0,780.0,820.0,880.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,980.0,1800.0,1200.0,1000.0,950.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,2200.0,1500.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,2600.0,2000.0,1600.0,1500.0,2300.0,1800.0,1600.0,1450.0,1350.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,2100.0,1700.0,1550.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,2400.0,1900.0,1750.0,1800.0,1850.0,1950.0],"meta/muse-ember":[950.0,920.0,980.0,1080.0,1030.0,1850.0,1450.0,1180.0,1020.0,1080.0,1050.0,1150.0,830.0,810.0,880.0,970.0,920.0,1020.0,1050.0,1000.0,880.0,900.0,870.0,940.0,800.0,790.0,860.0,940.0,900.0,980.0,1650.0,1250.0,920.0,880.0,860.0,930.0,820.0,810.0,880.0,960.0,920.0,990.0,1010.0,970.0,900.0,1520.0,1380.0,1020.0,900.0,920.0,1080.0,1250.0,1320.0,1150.0,1180.0,1120.0,1030.0,1070.0,1100.0,1180.0,1150.0,1120.0,1220.0,1350.0,1280.0,1380.0,2350.0,1750.0,1650.0,1420.0,1380.0,1500.0,1350.0,1320.0,1420.0,1550.0,1480.0,1850.0,1780.0,1950.0,1620.0,1500.0,1450.0,1580.0,1580.0,1540.0,1680.0,1850.0,1950.0,2100.0,2250.0,2650.0,2350.0,2050.0,2150.0,2200.0,1750.0,1820.0,1850.0,2020.0,1950.0,2120.0,2180.0,2280.0,2380.0,2000.0,1920.0,2100.0,1700.0,1680.0,1780.0,1950.0,1880.0,2000.0,2050.0,2100.0,1950.0,1850.0,1980.0,2050.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[1120.0,1180.0,1240.0,2600.0,2900.0,6800.0,3400.0,1620.0,1680.0,1720.0,1760.0,1820.0,1860.0,1900.0,1930.0,3900.0,1980.0,2010.0,2030.0,2050.0,2070.0,2090.0,2120.0,2160.0,2210.0,2240.0,2270.0,4600.0,2320.0,2350.0,2370.0,2400.0,2450.0,7600.0,4800.0,2700.0,2780.0,2820.0,2860.0,5900.0,2930.0,2960.0,2990.0,3010.0,3040.0,3070.0,3100.0,3140.0,3190.0,3230.0,3300.0,7200.0,3420.0,3450.0,3470.0,3490.0,3510.0,3530.0,3560.0,3600.0,3660.0,3700.0,3740.0,7900.0,3800.0,3830.0,3860.0,3880.0,3910.0,3940.0,3970.0,4010.0,4060.0,4100.0,4140.0,8800.0,4240.0,9500.0,26000.0,11500.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5120.0,5320.0,5420.0,5520.0,11500.0,5800.0,39000.0,16000.0,9800.0,7100.0,7250.0,7420.0,7600.0,7820.0,7960.0,8100.0,17000.0,8350.0,8480.0,8600.0,8720.0,8840.0,8960.0,9080.0,9300.0,9520.0,9680.0,9850.0,20500.0,10100.0,10600.0,10800.0,10950.0,11100.0,11250.0,11450.0,11800.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1420.0,1260.0,1350.0,1240.0,1310.0,1180.0,1340.0,1290.0,1390.0,1560.0,1720.0,1610.0,1510.0,1330.0,1470.0,1360.0,1450.0,1320.0,1870.0,1700.0,1520.0,1680.0,1790.0,1650.0,2180.0,1630.0,1740.0,1590.0,1690.0,1520.0,1630.0,1580.0,1730.0,1860.0,2150.0,2000.0,1840.0,1650.0,1780.0,1630.0,1720.0,1570.0,1680.0,1640.0,1790.0,1920.0,2080.0,1880.0,2050.0,1820.0,1950.0,2180.0,2120.0,1960.0,2100.0,2030.0,2160.0,2350.0,2500.0,2380.0,3600.0,3100.0,4700.0,3700.0,4200.0,4800.0,6300.0,20000.0,31000.0,14000.0,9500.0,7500.0,6300.0,5150.0,5450.0,5000.0,5300.0,4850.0,6100.0,5700.0,5300.0,5650.0,6200.0,5800.0,5100.0,4400.0,4650.0,4250.0,4500.0,4100.0,4400.0,4250.0,4500.0,4750.0,5250.0,4900.0,4600.0,3900.0,4100.0,3750.0,3950.0,4200.0,3850.0,3700.0,3950.0,4150.0,5900.0,4100.0,4250.0,3750.0,14500.0,7600.0,4600.0,4250.0,4350.0,4100.0,4300.0,4450.0,4650.0,4350.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,3400.0,4800.0,5200.0,4600.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,4300.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1200.0,1090.0,1020.0,1160.0,1100.0,1150.0,1450.0,1060.0,1180.0,1250.0,1130.0,1800.0,1300.0,1420.0,1260.0,1360.0,1450.0,1310.0,2350.0,1370.0,1450.0,1530.0,1460.0,2400.0,1550.0,1650.0,1500.0,1620.0,1700.0,1520.0,1780.0,1570.0,1670.0,1760.0,1690.0,2200.0,2000.0,2150.0,1950.0,2350.0,2150.0,2000.0,2750.0,2050.0,2250.0,2500.0,2300.0,3100.0,2380.0,2190.0,2710.0,3260.0,2600.0,2330.0,3190.0,2460.0,2580.0,2810.0,3090.0,4030.0,4000.0,3720.0,3560.0,4880.0,7360.0,4640.0,8240.0,4360.0,5840.0,6000.0,5360.0,7040.0,4000.0,3800.0,3560.0,4560.0,4360.0,3680.0,5440.0,3840.0,4240.0,4800.0,4400.0,6080.0,3600.0,3440.0,3280.0,4080.0,3920.0,3440.0,4960.0,3600.0,3920.0,4360.0,4000.0,5440.0,4000.0,3840.0,3600.0,4240.0,6480.0,4720.0,5840.0,4080.0,4800.0,5280.0,4640.0,6960.0,3280.0,3120.0,2960.0,3360.0,3280.0,3040.0,3680.0,3120.0,3280.0,3600.0,3360.0,4640.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[420.0,430.0,560.0,700.0,510.0,950.0,620.0,570.0,530.0,560.0,550.0,500.0,510.0,490.0,610.0,730.0,560.0,540.0,570.0,590.0,550.0,580.0,570.0,520.0,530.0,500.0,620.0,760.0,590.0,570.0,610.0,630.0,580.0,620.0,600.0,550.0,560.0,530.0,660.0,820.0,620.0,600.0,660.0,690.0,640.0,700.0,650.0,590.0,620.0,610.0,850.0,1450.0,1050.0,850.0,790.0,820.0,780.0,830.0,800.0,750.0,800.0,780.0,950.0,1100.0,900.0,920.0,1050.0,2600.0,1550.0,1100.0,970.0,900.0,930.0,870.0,1050.0,1250.0,980.0,950.0,1020.0,1000.0,930.0,980.0,950.0,880.0,920.0,890.0,1080.0,1320.0,990.0,1020.0,1100.0,1080.0,1250.0,1850.0,1350.0,1050.0,1080.0,1040.0,1220.0,1500.0,1150.0,1120.0,1200.0,1180.0,1120.0,1200.0,1160.0,1080.0,1120.0,1080.0,1280.0,1580.0,1200.0,1180.0,1250.0,1230.0,1180.0,1260.0,1210.0,1130.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1900.0,2000.0,1700.0,3200.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,2600.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1500.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,2300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1450.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,2200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1500.0,1400.0,1700.0,3500.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1650.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,2600.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1500.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,2400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1400.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,2300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1350.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,2200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1300.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,2100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1250.0]}},{"title":"Valentino Rossi","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Valentino Rossi\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[43702,54726,70850,126594,99149,108112,57435,60048,106106,103058,74250,46138,65718,59318,78819,100122,123637,120294,68850,88284,90759,82755,82693,45132,46380,72296,88560,92987,79397,99160,82398,89610,79627,100947,92284,49572,46410,71499,72381,74798,69340,80799,69562,94970,85899,111964,95048,67494,48162,71451,57426,67178,64911,62226,142060,170610,120366,88819,93255,67017,42440,64541,105417,114072,111514,103269,63134,288792,95678,117588,278514,66196,59769,53800,84403,92559,74729,66328,64681,68384,73985,77753,68084,38416,41132,59502,82400,70123,67521,75997,67855,67137,77370,77079,70759,50313,47278,57665,66258,63060,64825,64664,48477,45732,63119,51514,55377,37511,38632,48127,80831,74398,62497,77627,82860,68969,92274,62713,46588,55164],"flat_reference_value":16836.054772088155,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[103000.0,106000.0,135000.0,142000.0,139000.0,132000.0,125000.0,136000.0,143000.0,151000.0,138000.0,98000.0,99000.0,101000.0,126000.0,134000.0,130000.0,133000.0,125000.0,136000.0,218000.0,145000.0,125000.0,93000.0,95000.0,98000.0,120000.0,125000.0,127000.0,125000.0,121000.0,128000.0,133000.0,137000.0,123000.0,91000.0,92000.0,94000.0,119000.0,123000.0,121000.0,119000.0,115000.0,121000.0,125000.0,130000.0,117000.0,89000.0,91000.0,95000.0,95000.0,81000.0,83000.0,88000.0,120000.0,128000.0,132000.0,170000.0,119000.0,90000.0,94000.0,96000.0,115000.0,119000.0,120000.0,122000.0,126000.0,265000.0,150000.0,163000.0,285000.0,119000.0,103000.0,103000.0,109000.0,112000.0,108000.0,104000.0,102000.0,105000.0,107000.0,110000.0,104000.0,86000.0,91000.0,90000.0,102000.0,103000.0,101000.0,99000.0,98000.0,101000.0,104000.0,107000.0,102000.0,83000.0,89000.0,91000.0,100000.0,101000.0,100000.0,98000.0,97000.0,99000.0,103000.0,105000.0,99000.0,82000.0,90000.0,92000.0,101000.0,100000.0,99000.0,98000.0,97000.0,99000.0,103000.0,104000.0,98000.0,82000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[118000.0,109000.0,158000.0,164000.0,152000.0,182000.0,134000.0,138000.0,144000.0,149000.0,155000.0,94000.0,92000.0,95000.0,146000.0,139000.0,136000.0,172000.0,124000.0,138000.0,166000.0,129000.0,124000.0,84000.0,83000.0,94000.0,132000.0,212000.0,126000.0,121000.0,116000.0,111000.0,112000.0,115000.0,136000.0,81000.0,79000.0,106000.0,122000.0,134000.0,112000.0,106000.0,99000.0,104000.0,105000.0,101000.0,102000.0,114000.0,81000.0,76000.0,74000.0,69000.0,68000.0,71000.0,126000.0,162000.0,131000.0,124000.0,104000.0,75000.0,74000.0,79000.0,119000.0,96000.0,94000.0,89000.0,85000.0,245000.0,126000.0,142000.0,365000.0,112000.0,81000.0,75000.0,91000.0,76000.0,86000.0,71000.0,68000.0,67000.0,69000.0,71000.0,94000.0,62000.0,60000.0,58000.0,73000.0,65000.0,66000.0,75000.0,62000.0,63000.0,65000.0,66000.0,76000.0,56000.0,57000.0,55000.0,69000.0,65000.0,66000.0,81000.0,61000.0,63000.0,86000.0,71000.0,73000.0,55000.0,57000.0,72000.0,81000.0,72000.0,70000.0,79000.0,68000.0,71000.0,106000.0,114000.0,86000.0,61000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[145000.0,115000.0,165000.0,195000.0,170000.0,210000.0,155000.0,150000.0,160000.0,165000.0,150000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,135000.0,155000.0,145000.0,180000.0,130000.0,125000.0,175000.0,135000.0,130000.0,80000.0,82000.0,78000.0,125000.0,120000.0,130000.0,145000.0,135000.0,115000.0,110000.0,115000.0,120000.0,72000.0,75000.0,70000.0,115000.0,125000.0,110000.0,105000.0,95000.0,90000.0,98000.0,95000.0,92000.0,65000.0,68000.0,64000.0,55000.0,52000.0,58000.0,62000.0,92000.0,105000.0,112000.0,155000.0,95000.0,60000.0,62000.0,58000.0,88000.0,92000.0,86000.0,82000.0,78000.0,485000.0,135000.0,125000.0,395000.0,102000.0,72000.0,66000.0,75000.0,70000.0,68000.0,65000.0,62000.0,58000.0,56000.0,54000.0,58000.0,48000.0,49000.0,46000.0,54000.0,52000.0,55000.0,58000.0,68000.0,53000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0,43000.0,45000.0,44000.0,50000.0,48000.0,52000.0,88000.0,56000.0,51000.0,49000.0,48000.0,47000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,58000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,40000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[150000.0,130000.0,160000.0,150000.0,160000.0,165000.0,145000.0,140000.0,145000.0,150000.0,135000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,140000.0,135000.0,135000.0,145000.0,125000.0,120000.0,135000.0,120000.0,115000.0,90000.0,88000.0,90000.0,115000.0,120000.0,110000.0,115000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,95000.0,78000.0,78000.0,80000.0,100000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,80000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,70000.0,65000.0,62000.0,60000.0,75000.0,78000.0,75000.0,85000.0,72000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,75000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,75000.0,190000.0,95000.0,90000.0,150000.0,75000.0,60000.0,55000.0,65000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,43000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,58000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,38000.0,38000.0,48000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,32000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[190000.0,180000.0,260000.0,300000.0,310000.0,300000.0,260000.0,270000.0,290000.0,300000.0,260000.0,170000.0,170000.0,160000.0,240000.0,270000.0,260000.0,270000.0,220000.0,240000.0,310000.0,250000.0,210000.0,150000.0,150000.0,145000.0,220000.0,250000.0,220000.0,220000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,190000.0,135000.0,140000.0,140000.0,210000.0,210000.0,195000.0,200000.0,175000.0,185000.0,180000.0,180000.0,170000.0,130000.0,130000.0,125000.0,135000.0,140000.0,135000.0,125000.0,190000.0,190000.0,200000.0,210000.0,180000.0,125000.0,120000.0,115000.0,160000.0,180000.0,170000.0,170000.0,150000.0,330000.0,200000.0,220000.0,400000.0,150000.0,125000.0,115000.0,150000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,110000.0,120000.0,120000.0,120000.0,115000.0,95000.0,100000.0,95000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,115000.0,100000.0,105000.0,110000.0,110000.0,110000.0,90000.0,92000.0,88000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,92000.0,98000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,85000.0,88000.0,85000.0,98000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,88000.0,92000.0,92000.0,92000.0,90000.0,80000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[72000.0,84000.0,138000.0,152000.0,128000.0,158000.0,112000.0,96000.0,132000.0,118000.0,182000.0,74000.0,66000.0,80000.0,126000.0,108000.0,132000.0,158000.0,116000.0,118000.0,146000.0,156000.0,138000.0,68000.0,70000.0,78000.0,118000.0,102000.0,126000.0,138000.0,108000.0,100000.0,112000.0,104000.0,116000.0,62000.0,68000.0,76000.0,112000.0,104000.0,124000.0,136000.0,110000.0,104000.0,118000.0,116000.0,122000.0,62000.0,62000.0,70000.0,76000.0,64000.0,60000.0,66000.0,92000.0,98000.0,96000.0,158000.0,108000.0,66000.0,58000.0,68000.0,96000.0,92000.0,104000.0,112000.0,98000.0,260000.0,128000.0,106000.0,310000.0,150000.0,58000.0,66000.0,84000.0,60000.0,64000.0,74000.0,60000.0,66000.0,74000.0,78000.0,96000.0,58000.0,52000.0,54000.0,72000.0,58000.0,62000.0,72000.0,60000.0,64000.0,78000.0,70000.0,92000.0,56000.0,62000.0,56000.0,74000.0,58000.0,64000.0,72000.0,64000.0,58000.0,72000.0,62000.0,92000.0,58000.0,48000.0,52000.0,66000.0,52000.0,58000.0,64000.0,52000.0,56000.0,60000.0,52000.0,68000.0,46000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[83412.0,92147.0,117893.0,124563.0,134890.0,141752.0,118204.0,132468.0,157932.0,138045.0,144876.0,78193.0,75984.0,86432.0,111758.0,118342.0,125967.0,131845.0,114923.0,107654.0,164823.0,127945.0,124876.0,68142.0,69873.0,81954.0,104876.0,178342.0,121934.0,117845.0,101923.0,109876.0,127654.0,107932.0,107456.0,61984.0,64923.0,77984.0,98123.0,101876.0,107945.0,111732.0,94876.0,101934.0,117845.0,97932.0,101567.0,57943.0,61954.0,74873.0,68214.0,62187.0,58123.0,64987.0,94832.0,101764.0,107932.0,141876.0,117654.0,59983.0,57932.0,69874.0,87954.0,91873.0,87912.0,84987.0,97934.0,384753.0,144876.0,111932.0,309845.0,94873.0,61984.0,67932.0,81954.0,64987.0,69934.0,61987.0,54932.0,57987.0,67954.0,55987.0,59932.0,41987.0,39984.0,47932.0,61987.0,54987.0,57954.0,59987.0,49932.0,51987.0,64932.0,53987.0,57954.0,37987.0,37954.0,44987.0,57932.0,51987.0,55932.0,57987.0,47932.0,49987.0,61954.0,51932.0,54987.0,35987.0,36987.0,43954.0,59932.0,54932.0,57987.0,59954.0,49987.0,51954.0,67932.0,54987.0,59987.0,34987.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[90000.0,85000.0,130000.0,125000.0,135000.0,150000.0,110000.0,115000.0,140000.0,155000.0,200000.0,90000.0,80000.0,90000.0,125000.0,120000.0,135000.0,145000.0,115000.0,125000.0,250000.0,155000.0,165000.0,85000.0,75000.0,80000.0,115000.0,110000.0,125000.0,125000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,135000.0,140000.0,75000.0,75000.0,95000.0,115000.0,110000.0,125000.0,115000.0,105000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,125000.0,70000.0,65000.0,75000.0,60000.0,55000.0,55000.0,65000.0,115000.0,130000.0,115000.0,220000.0,130000.0,65000.0,75000.0,80000.0,115000.0,115000.0,125000.0,120000.0,115000.0,400000.0,175000.0,180000.0,300000.0,105000.0,85000.0,65000.0,85000.0,75000.0,90000.0,80000.0,70000.0,75000.0,95000.0,80000.0,80000.0,65000.0,55000.0,60000.0,75000.0,70000.0,80000.0,130000.0,75000.0,65000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,55000.0,50000.0,55000.0,65000.0,60000.0,65000.0,115000.0,65000.0,55000.0,65000.0,60000.0,65000.0,50000.0,50000.0,60000.0,65000.0,60000.0,65000.0,110000.0,65000.0,55000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,50000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[72000.0,76000.0,108000.0,102000.0,122000.0,108000.0,98000.0,102000.0,118000.0,104000.0,112000.0,78000.0,66000.0,70000.0,100000.0,92000.0,108000.0,100000.0,96000.0,90000.0,128000.0,94000.0,96000.0,66000.0,60000.0,62000.0,86000.0,80000.0,96000.0,86000.0,80000.0,76000.0,90000.0,80000.0,85000.0,58000.0,58000.0,60000.0,82000.0,78000.0,90000.0,82000.0,78000.0,75000.0,88000.0,78000.0,82000.0,55000.0,55000.0,58000.0,80000.0,65000.0,60000.0,56000.0,76000.0,70000.0,82000.0,88000.0,76000.0,50000.0,56000.0,60000.0,92000.0,86000.0,104000.0,98000.0,92000.0,300000.0,140000.0,125000.0,240000.0,105000.0,58000.0,52000.0,58000.0,52000.0,58000.0,52000.0,50000.0,46000.0,56000.0,48000.0,52000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,44000.0,40000.0,47000.0,42000.0,40000.0,37000.0,47000.0,40000.0,42000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,38000.0,35000.0,42000.0,37000.0,35000.0,32000.0,40000.0,35000.0,37000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,34000.0,32000.0,38000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,37000.0,32000.0,34000.0,28000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[22000.0,24000.0,36000.0,38000.0,58000.0,60000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,47000.0,62000.0,23000.0,21500.0,23500.0,35000.0,37000.0,45000.0,72000.0,39000.0,49000.0,52000.0,46000.0,50000.0,22000.0,20500.0,22500.0,33500.0,52000.0,45000.0,42000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,43000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21500.0,32000.0,65000.0,44000.0,41000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,43000.0,19500.0,19000.0,20000.0,27000.0,21000.0,20500.0,22000.0,34000.0,58000.0,38000.0,55000.0,38000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22500.0,36000.0,37000.0,42000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,85000.0,30000.0,17500.0,16500.0,21000.0,18000.0,28500.0,23000.0,17500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18500.0,36000.0,11500.0,9500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15500.0,17500.0,14500.0,14000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14500.0,29000.0,9000.0,7500.0,11000.0,12500.0,11000.0,14000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,11000.0,13000.0,9500.0,8500.0,10500.0,13000.0,11000.0,11500.0,15000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,11500.0,7000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[118000.0,112000.0,165000.0,235000.0,520000.0,300000.0,260000.0,170000.0,285000.0,340000.0,240000.0,140000.0,108000.0,100000.0,150000.0,210000.0,430000.0,265000.0,235000.0,155000.0,250000.0,285000.0,330000.0,125000.0,100000.0,94000.0,140000.0,190000.0,380000.0,240000.0,215000.0,140000.0,225000.0,255000.0,230000.0,115000.0,95000.0,88000.0,130000.0,175000.0,340000.0,220000.0,195000.0,130000.0,205000.0,235000.0,200000.0,105000.0,90000.0,86000.0,108000.0,95000.0,88000.0,130000.0,200000.0,195000.0,250000.0,215000.0,185000.0,125000.0,105000.0,160000.0,175000.0,195000.0,360000.0,235000.0,210000.0,320000.0,225000.0,250000.0,240000.0,140000.0,120000.0,135000.0,170000.0,205000.0,420000.0,250000.0,220000.0,150000.0,260000.0,260000.0,230000.0,130000.0,105000.0,98000.0,150000.0,185000.0,380000.0,225000.0,200000.0,140000.0,230000.0,245000.0,210000.0,115000.0,100000.0,95000.0,145000.0,180000.0,360000.0,215000.0,195000.0,135000.0,220000.0,235000.0,200000.0,110000.0,180000.0,210000.0,240000.0,290000.0,800000.0,450000.0,380000.0,260000.0,480000.0,620000.0,1250000.0,520000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[320000.0,330000.0,430000.0,355000.0,430000.0,460000.0,380000.0,360000.0,395000.0,405000.0,470000.0,325000.0,330000.0,325000.0,405000.0,375000.0,390000.0,470000.0,400000.0,370000.0,395000.0,380000.0,460000.0,330000.0,330000.0,325000.0,395000.0,370000.0,385000.0,450000.0,400000.0,375000.0,410000.0,375000.0,420000.0,330000.0,335000.0,330000.0,385000.0,365000.0,400000.0,480000.0,395000.0,370000.0,400000.0,375000.0,430000.0,330000.0,340000.0,330000.0,365000.0,350000.0,340000.0,380000.0,420000.0,470000.0,460000.0,440000.0,450000.0,330000.0,340000.0,335000.0,405000.0,385000.0,405000.0,420000.0,430000.0,520000.0,455000.0,425000.0,700000.0,380000.0,365000.0,350000.0,400000.0,370000.0,395000.0,410000.0,385000.0,370000.0,390000.0,380000.0,430000.0,340000.0,340000.0,335000.0,385000.0,365000.0,390000.0,400000.0,380000.0,370000.0,620000.0,395000.0,420000.0,335000.0,335000.0,330000.0,380000.0,360000.0,385000.0,395000.0,380000.0,370000.0,385000.0,375000.0,415000.0,330000.0,330000.0,325000.0,380000.0,360000.0,385000.0,395000.0,380000.0,375000.0,385000.0,375000.0,415000.0,330000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[330000.0,300000.0,340000.0,330000.0,350000.0,340000.0,300000.0,280000.0,300000.0,320000.0,300000.0,270000.0,280000.0,270000.0,310000.0,320000.0,330000.0,330000.0,290000.0,270000.0,300000.0,310000.0,290000.0,250000.0,260000.0,250000.0,290000.0,290000.0,300000.0,300000.0,260000.0,250000.0,270000.0,280000.0,260000.0,230000.0,240000.0,230000.0,270000.0,270000.0,280000.0,280000.0,240000.0,230000.0,250000.0,260000.0,240000.0,210000.0,230000.0,220000.0,210000.0,200000.0,190000.0,210000.0,260000.0,230000.0,240000.0,240000.0,230000.0,200000.0,200000.0,200000.0,230000.0,230000.0,230000.0,230000.0,220000.0,330000.0,310000.0,330000.0,420000.0,240000.0,200000.0,190000.0,200000.0,190000.0,180000.0,180000.0,170000.0,160000.0,170000.0,170000.0,170000.0,160000.0,170000.0,160000.0,180000.0,170000.0,170000.0,170000.0,160000.0,150000.0,160000.0,160000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,150000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,150000.0,150000.0,150000.0,140000.0,150000.0,140000.0,150000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,130000.0,130000.0,140000.0,140000.0,140000.0,130000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[360000.0,460000.0,640000.0,690000.0,730000.0,690000.0,550000.0,620000.0,700000.0,760000.0,710000.0,420000.0,330000.0,410000.0,560000.0,600000.0,640000.0,600000.0,480000.0,550000.0,610000.0,650000.0,600000.0,360000.0,300000.0,380000.0,500000.0,540000.0,580000.0,540000.0,440000.0,500000.0,550000.0,580000.0,540000.0,310000.0,250000.0,350000.0,430000.0,460000.0,490000.0,460000.0,370000.0,430000.0,460000.0,490000.0,440000.0,250000.0,220000.0,280000.0,300000.0,280000.0,320000.0,360000.0,450000.0,560000.0,560000.0,510000.0,440000.0,270000.0,350000.0,450000.0,560000.0,620000.0,680000.0,760000.0,640000.0,2200000.0,1800000.0,1600000.0,2800000.0,1000000.0,700000.0,1400000.0,520000.0,450000.0,420000.0,400000.0,330000.0,370000.0,350000.0,330000.0,380000.0,300000.0,260000.0,390000.0,300000.0,270000.0,290000.0,260000.0,220000.0,240000.0,250000.0,260000.0,240000.0,190000.0,210000.0,300000.0,240000.0,220000.0,230000.0,210000.0,180000.0,190000.0,200000.0,210000.0,190000.0,160000.0,170000.0,230000.0,190000.0,170000.0,180000.0,160000.0,140000.0,150000.0,160000.0,170000.0,150000.0,130000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[36000.0,34000.0,43000.0,39000.0,47000.0,51000.0,44000.0,49000.0,46000.0,48000.0,42000.0,35000.0,32000.0,30000.0,39000.0,36000.0,42000.0,48000.0,41000.0,45000.0,42000.0,44000.0,38000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,36000.0,34000.0,40000.0,45000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,35000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,35000.0,33000.0,38000.0,43000.0,38000.0,40000.0,39000.0,42000.0,36000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,25000.0,29000.0,31000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,62000.0,45000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,36000.0,34000.0,39000.0,42000.0,41000.0,150000.0,70000.0,55000.0,115000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,41000.0,39000.0,44000.0,47000.0,42000.0,43000.0,40000.0,42000.0,37000.0,32000.0,30000.0,29000.0,34000.0,32000.0,36000.0,38000.0,35000.0,37000.0,35000.0,38000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,34000.0,33000.0,37000.0,41000.0,36000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,34000.0,32000.0,37000.0,40000.0,36000.0,39000.0,37000.0,39000.0,34000.0,30000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[62000.0,68000.0,72000.0,70000.0,74000.0,80000.0,78000.0,82000.0,85000.0,92000.0,110000.0,65000.0,58000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,66000.0,70000.0,64000.0,66000.0,68000.0,72000.0,74000.0,56000.0,52000.0,54000.0,58000.0,56000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0,62000.0,60000.0,60000.0,50000.0,50000.0,52000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,66000.0,52000.0,52000.0,54000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,60000.0,62000.0,50000.0,52000.0,54000.0,60000.0,62000.0,64000.0,66000.0,62000.0,60000.0,64000.0,78000.0,90000.0,58000.0,46000.0,44000.0,48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,48000.0,46000.0,50000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,28000.0]}},{"title":"Less-than sign","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Less-than sign\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[81046,88920,72138,68358,63029,49922,32805,39005,57348,54696,35931,34077,49568,74556,80643,59491,49199,47018,40869,41532,44360,132973,43907,39704,38133,33018,34957,34149,38261,32149,29953,32263,37738,38178,34251,28583,37798,35945,37415,33448,38100,34441,35385,33088,33307,35439,35909,32275,39631,32598,36710,41226,35955,33750,37788,35711,46568,51693,44105,39422,42970,46341,49036,36772,32963,29033,32168,37297,44191,43002,37666,32681,33201,32696,37266,33019,28457,22382,19969,22306,26368,27131,26006,22684,28155,26092,27187,20555,25303,21645,21213,23421,27407,32349,31355,35398,45811,32072,31753,31319,24923,17086,16647,16786,18914,20952,20270,17808,20213,18786,20018,18486,18847,15964,18228,20495,22177,21063,18333,15959],"flat_reference_value":16904.58115034729,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[9200.0,9600.0,10100.0,9700.0,8900.0,7200.0,6800.0,8500.0,10800.0,11500.0,10800.0,7900.0,10300.0,10500.0,11300.0,10400.0,9800.0,8100.0,7500.0,9300.0,11900.0,12800.0,11900.0,8900.0,11400.0,11600.0,12400.0,11500.0,10800.0,8800.0,8200.0,10300.0,13000.0,13900.0,13000.0,9700.0,12500.0,12700.0,13500.0,12800.0,11900.0,9700.0,9100.0,11200.0,14300.0,15200.0,14000.0,10300.0,13500.0,13800.0,13400.0,12800.0,12500.0,10200.0,9800.0,12300.0,16000.0,17200.0,15800.0,11600.0,15100.0,15300.0,16500.0,15400.0,14300.0,11500.0,10800.0,13400.0,17100.0,18000.0,16700.0,12300.0,15600.0,15700.0,16900.0,15700.0,14600.0,11600.0,11000.0,13700.0,17500.0,18400.0,17000.0,12500.0,16000.0,16000.0,17300.0,15900.0,14800.0,11800.0,11200.0,14000.0,17700.0,18700.0,17200.0,12600.0,16100.0,16300.0,17200.0,16000.0,14900.0,11800.0,11100.0,13900.0,17600.0,18500.0,16900.0,12300.0,15700.0,15700.0,16900.0,15600.0,14400.0,11400.0,10800.0,13400.0,17000.0,17900.0,16300.0,11900.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[13150.0,12920.0,14110.0,13680.0,13340.0,10720.0,9680.0,10890.0,14250.0,15120.0,14680.0,11890.0,13940.0,13510.0,14980.0,14320.0,14090.0,11260.0,10240.0,11480.0,15040.0,15960.0,15430.0,12450.0,14720.0,14230.0,15690.0,15140.0,14820.0,11840.0,10790.0,12110.0,15780.0,16820.0,16210.0,13120.0,15410.0,14890.0,16450.0,15870.0,15490.0,12380.0,11340.0,12650.0,16520.0,17580.0,16940.0,13780.0,16050.0,15640.0,16210.0,17890.0,17340.0,13620.0,12410.0,13980.0,18240.0,19350.0,18610.0,15120.0,16840.0,16290.0,17680.0,16950.0,16320.0,13080.0,11920.0,13260.0,17190.0,18140.0,17560.0,14280.0,15560.0,14980.0,16420.0,15690.0,15280.0,12290.0,11210.0,12480.0,16120.0,17050.0,16490.0,13390.0,14520.0,13910.0,15240.0,14460.0,14080.0,11340.0,10380.0,11520.0,14860.0,15740.0,15190.0,12360.0,13480.0,13120.0,14110.0,13590.0,13180.0,10590.0,9720.0,10760.0,13840.0,14680.0,14120.0,11540.0,12610.0,12080.0,13190.0,12680.0,12310.0,9940.0,9120.0,10090.0,12960.0,13750.0,13240.0,10820.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[31200.0,34800.0,35600.0,33900.0,31400.0,23100.0,21500.0,24200.0,33500.0,37100.0,35800.0,26800.0,30500.0,33900.0,34800.0,32700.0,30600.0,22400.0,20800.0,23600.0,32400.0,36200.0,34700.0,25900.0,29600.0,32800.0,33500.0,31400.0,29300.0,21500.0,19900.0,22500.0,30900.0,34600.0,33100.0,24800.0,28200.0,31100.0,32000.0,29800.0,27900.0,20400.0,18800.0,21300.0,29300.0,32800.0,31400.0,23500.0,26900.0,29500.0,27400.0,28100.0,26800.0,19600.0,18100.0,20500.0,28200.0,31600.0,30100.0,22400.0,25800.0,28400.0,29100.0,27300.0,25400.0,18600.0,17200.0,19500.0,26900.0,30200.0,28800.0,21500.0,24500.0,27100.0,27800.0,25900.0,24100.0,17600.0,16300.0,18500.0,25400.0,28600.0,27200.0,20400.0,23100.0,25400.0,26200.0,24300.0,22700.0,16500.0,15200.0,17400.0,23800.0,26800.0,25400.0,19100.0,21800.0,24100.0,24800.0,23000.0,21500.0,15600.0,14400.0,16400.0,22500.0,25300.0,24000.0,18000.0,20500.0,22800.0,23400.0,21700.0,20200.0,14700.0,13600.0,15500.0,21300.0,23900.0,22700.0,17100.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[14200.0,15000.0,15600.0,14300.0,14100.0,11300.0,9900.0,11200.0,14000.0,14700.0,14000.0,11200.0,13600.0,14300.0,15000.0,13500.0,13600.0,10800.0,9500.0,10900.0,13500.0,14200.0,13500.0,10800.0,13100.0,13700.0,14300.0,13000.0,13000.0,10400.0,9100.0,10400.0,13000.0,13600.0,13000.0,10400.0,12600.0,13100.0,13700.0,12500.0,12500.0,10000.0,8800.0,10000.0,12500.0,13100.0,12500.0,10000.0,12500.0,13100.0,14200.0,14500.0,13600.0,10300.0,8900.0,10200.0,12900.0,13200.0,12600.0,10000.0,11900.0,12200.0,12700.0,11500.0,11400.0,9200.0,8100.0,9200.0,11500.0,12100.0,11500.0,9200.0,10600.0,11000.0,11600.0,10500.0,10500.0,8400.0,7400.0,8400.0,10500.0,11000.0,10500.0,8400.0,10100.0,10500.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,8000.0,7000.0,8000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,8000.0,9600.0,10000.0,10400.0,9500.0,9500.0,7600.0,6700.0,7600.0,9500.0,10000.0,9500.0,7600.0,8900.0,9200.0,9700.0,8800.0,8800.0,7000.0,6200.0,7000.0,8800.0,9200.0,8800.0,7000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17800.0,17500.0,15500.0,14500.0,15500.0,18500.0,19500.0,19000.0,16500.0,19000.0,19000.0,20000.0,18500.0,18500.0,16000.0,15000.0,16500.0,19500.0,20500.0,20000.0,17000.0,20000.0,19500.0,20500.0,19500.0,19500.0,17000.0,16000.0,17500.0,21000.0,22000.0,21500.0,18500.0,22000.0,21500.0,22500.0,21500.0,21500.0,18500.0,18000.0,19500.0,23500.0,24500.0,24000.0,20500.0,24000.0,23500.0,24500.0,27000.0,26500.0,22500.0,20500.0,21500.0,25500.0,26000.0,25000.0,21500.0,24500.0,23500.0,24000.0,22000.0,21500.0,18500.0,17500.0,18500.0,21500.0,22000.0,21500.0,18500.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,19500.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,19500.0,20000.0,19500.0,17000.0,19500.0,18500.0,19500.0,18000.0,18500.0,16000.0,15500.0,16500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,16000.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15500.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0,15000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,15500.0,15500.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,15000.0,15500.0,14500.0,13000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10900.0,10700.0,10600.0,9800.0,9500.0,8000.0,7700.0,8600.0,11200.0,10900.0,9600.0,8300.0,10300.0,10100.0,9900.0,9200.0,8900.0,7500.0,7200.0,8000.0,10400.0,10200.0,9000.0,7800.0,9600.0,9400.0,9300.0,8600.0,8300.0,7000.0,6700.0,7500.0,9800.0,9500.0,8400.0,7200.0,8800.0,8600.0,8500.0,7900.0,7600.0,6400.0,6200.0,6900.0,9000.0,8700.0,7700.0,6600.0,9000.0,8900.0,10400.0,10100.0,8600.0,6800.0,6600.0,7300.0,9200.0,9000.0,7900.0,6800.0,8100.0,8000.0,7800.0,7300.0,7000.0,5900.0,5700.0,6300.0,8300.0,8000.0,7100.0,6100.0,7900.0,7800.0,7600.0,7100.0,6900.0,5800.0,5500.0,6200.0,8000.0,7800.0,6900.0,6000.0,7700.0,7500.0,7400.0,6900.0,6700.0,5600.0,5400.0,6000.0,7800.0,7600.0,6700.0,5800.0,8000.0,7900.0,7700.0,7200.0,7000.0,5800.0,5600.0,6300.0,8100.0,7900.0,7000.0,6000.0,8300.0,8200.0,8100.0,7500.0,7400.0,6800.0,6700.0,7000.0,8400.0,8200.0,7300.0,6300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[15384.0,14274.0,16204.0,13868.0,14580.0,11138.0,10526.0,11286.0,14328.0,15330.0,14598.0,11426.0,16012.0,14362.0,16757.0,14558.0,15376.0,11988.0,10671.0,11852.0,14743.0,16355.0,14806.0,12363.0,16739.0,15360.0,17110.0,15498.0,15657.0,12548.0,11516.0,11878.0,15588.0,16639.0,15854.0,12600.0,17071.0,16057.0,18143.0,15698.0,16628.0,12758.0,11901.0,12804.0,15998.0,17764.0,16172.0,13457.0,17382.0,16887.0,23984.0,23762.0,22741.0,16387.0,14358.0,15392.0,20247.0,21483.0,19912.0,15584.0,18314.0,17114.0,19031.0,17160.0,17417.0,13980.0,12435.0,13632.0,17290.0,18898.0,17356.0,14409.0,17872.0,16127.0,18738.0,16230.0,17046.0,13120.0,12260.0,12786.0,16610.0,18234.0,16648.0,13842.0,17251.0,16153.0,18301.0,15885.0,16800.0,13135.0,11707.0,12838.0,16205.0,17927.0,16364.0,13548.0,17170.0,16090.0,18005.0,15630.0,16415.0,12910.0,11495.0,12611.0,15940.0,17510.0,16060.0,13305.0,17019.0,15383.0,17806.0,15712.0,15962.0,12802.0,11658.0,12156.0,15792.0,17356.0,15908.0,13183.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4438.0,4712.0,4825.0,4561.0,4447.0,3572.0,3618.0,3554.0,4621.0,4812.0,4538.0,3871.0,4862.0,4812.0,5108.0,4973.0,4542.0,3962.0,3648.0,3782.0,4881.0,5113.0,4802.0,4104.0,5248.0,5172.0,5513.0,5358.0,4882.0,4273.0,3922.0,4058.0,5271.0,5489.0,5176.0,4418.0,5622.0,5548.0,5901.0,5748.0,5231.0,4583.0,4202.0,4351.0,5638.0,5871.0,5544.0,4731.0,6392.0,6838.0,7528.0,7074.0,6981.0,5158.0,5196.0,5389.0,6402.0,6961.0,6548.0,5822.0,6792.0,6712.0,7128.0,6922.0,6342.0,5513.0,5092.0,5285.0,6811.0,6852.0,7001.0,5721.0,6322.0,6781.0,6618.0,6508.0,6401.0,5112.0,5158.0,5339.0,6314.0,6892.0,6497.0,5541.0,5862.0,6283.0,6131.0,6275.0,5691.0,4953.0,4561.0,4723.0,6108.0,6142.0,6279.0,5128.0,5342.0,5731.0,5594.0,5498.0,5413.0,4312.0,4368.0,4517.0,5338.0,5841.0,5487.0,4681.0,4882.0,5236.0,5112.0,5018.0,4942.0,3938.0,3988.0,4122.0,4873.0,5336.0,5017.0,4268.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[5460.0,5616.0,5616.0,5460.0,5096.0,4680.0,4420.0,4576.0,5720.0,5824.0,5616.0,4784.0,5880.0,6048.0,6048.0,5880.0,5488.0,5040.0,4760.0,4928.0,6160.0,6272.0,6048.0,5152.0,6300.0,6480.0,6480.0,6300.0,5880.0,5400.0,5100.0,5280.0,6600.0,6720.0,6480.0,5520.0,6720.0,6912.0,6912.0,6720.0,6272.0,5760.0,5440.0,5632.0,7040.0,7168.0,6912.0,5888.0,7560.0,7776.0,7776.0,7560.0,7056.0,6480.0,6120.0,6336.0,7920.0,8064.0,7776.0,6624.0,7980.0,8208.0,8208.0,7980.0,7448.0,6840.0,6460.0,6688.0,8360.0,8512.0,8208.0,6992.0,7770.0,7992.0,7992.0,7770.0,7252.0,6660.0,6290.0,6512.0,8140.0,8288.0,7992.0,6808.0,7350.0,7560.0,7560.0,7350.0,6860.0,6300.0,5950.0,6160.0,7700.0,7840.0,7560.0,6440.0,6930.0,7128.0,7128.0,6930.0,6468.0,5940.0,5610.0,5808.0,7260.0,7392.0,7128.0,6072.0,6510.0,6696.0,6696.0,6510.0,6076.0,5580.0,5270.0,5456.0,6820.0,6944.0,6696.0,5704.0],"meta/muse-ember":[9025.0,9124.0,9572.0,8765.0,8512.0,6853.0,6579.0,7749.0,9355.0,9928.0,8676.0,7807.0,9515.0,8701.0,9235.0,9427.0,8452.0,7596.0,6402.0,7555.0,9963.0,9280.0,9244.0,7675.0,8637.0,8825.0,9260.0,8649.0,8479.0,6833.0,6615.0,6926.0,9604.0,9138.0,9085.0,7551.0,8672.0,8176.0,8243.0,8761.0,8097.0,6925.0,5771.0,6816.0,8721.0,9171.0,8256.0,7497.0,8500.0,8510.0,11054.0,10732.0,9621.0,7173.0,6507.0,7877.0,10133.0,10650.0,9173.0,7720.0,8953.0,8277.0,8779.0,8272.0,8197.0,6738.0,6335.0,7319.0,8920.0,9193.0,8187.0,7517.0,7895.0,8141.0,7814.0,8062.0,7374.0,6434.0,5586.0,6202.0,8689.0,8352.0,8299.0,6561.0,7785.0,7194.0,7708.0,7338.0,7268.0,5856.0,5562.0,6181.0,7672.0,8152.0,7413.0,6536.0,6926.0,6934.0,7206.0,6727.0,6533.0,5314.0,5049.0,5498.0,6959.0,6813.0,6589.0,5698.0,6025.0,5735.0,5964.0,5972.0,5400.0,4718.0,4394.0,4782.0,6180.0,6309.0,5851.0,5110.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[43680.0,39150.0,44100.0,43680.0,42420.0,40320.0,38220.0,42000.0,45780.0,44940.0,42000.0,39060.0,48880.0,42300.0,49350.0,48880.0,47470.0,45120.0,42770.0,47000.0,51230.0,50290.0,47000.0,43710.0,54080.0,46800.0,54600.0,54080.0,52520.0,49920.0,47320.0,52000.0,56680.0,55640.0,52000.0,48360.0,59280.0,51300.0,59850.0,59280.0,57570.0,54720.0,51870.0,57000.0,62130.0,60990.0,57000.0,53010.0,66560.0,59670.0,67200.0,66560.0,64640.0,61440.0,58240.0,64000.0,69760.0,68480.0,64000.0,59520.0,72800.0,63000.0,73500.0,72800.0,70700.0,67200.0,63700.0,70000.0,76300.0,74900.0,70000.0,65100.0,68640.0,59400.0,69300.0,68640.0,66660.0,63360.0,60060.0,66000.0,71940.0,70620.0,66000.0,61380.0,65520.0,56700.0,66150.0,65520.0,63630.0,60480.0,57330.0,63000.0,68670.0,67410.0,63000.0,58590.0,62400.0,55930.0,63000.0,62400.0,60600.0,57600.0,54600.0,60000.0,65400.0,64200.0,60000.0,55800.0,60320.0,52200.0,60900.0,60320.0,58580.0,55680.0,52780.0,58000.0,63220.0,62060.0,58000.0,53940.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[48200.0,46100.0,46600.0,45300.0,46000.0,44300.0,42100.0,43200.0,47400.0,48900.0,46700.0,44600.0,49900.0,48200.0,48600.0,47300.0,48000.0,46300.0,43900.0,45100.0,49400.0,50900.0,48700.0,46600.0,52000.0,50300.0,50500.0,49300.0,50000.0,48300.0,45800.0,47000.0,51500.0,53000.0,50800.0,48500.0,50900.0,49200.0,49500.0,48300.0,49000.0,47300.0,44900.0,46100.0,50500.0,51900.0,49700.0,47500.0,57200.0,55300.0,55600.0,54200.0,55000.0,53100.0,50300.0,51700.0,56700.0,58300.0,55800.0,53400.0,60200.0,58300.0,58600.0,57100.0,58000.0,56000.0,52900.0,54500.0,59700.0,61500.0,58900.0,56300.0,55000.0,53200.0,53500.0,52200.0,53000.0,51100.0,48500.0,49800.0,54600.0,56200.0,53800.0,51400.0,52900.0,51300.0,51500.0,50200.0,51000.0,49200.0,46700.0,47900.0,52500.0,54100.0,51800.0,49500.0,54800.0,53100.0,53800.0,52400.0,53300.0,51200.0,48600.0,50100.0,54900.0,56500.0,53600.0,50900.0,57000.0,55200.0,55900.0,54100.0,55200.0,53200.0,50200.0,51900.0,56800.0,58600.0,55700.0,53100.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,2700.0,2500.0,2800.0,3400.0,3600.0,3600.0,3000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2900.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3100.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,2900.0,2700.0,3000.0,3600.0,3800.0,3800.0,3200.0,3700.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3000.0,2800.0,3100.0,3700.0,3900.0,3900.0,3300.0,3800.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,3400.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3100.0,2900.0,3200.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,3300.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3000.0,2800.0,3100.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3200.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,2900.0,2700.0,3000.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3100.0,3500.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,2700.0,2500.0,2800.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,2900.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,2700.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[640.0,565.0,630.0,555.0,510.0,455.0,425.0,475.0,625.0,575.0,545.0,485.0,740.0,650.0,720.0,620.0,580.0,520.0,495.0,550.0,720.0,660.0,620.0,555.0,880.0,770.0,860.0,900.0,700.0,620.0,595.0,655.0,850.0,775.0,730.0,650.0,1020.0,890.0,985.0,855.0,800.0,725.0,695.0,760.0,990.0,1080.0,855.0,755.0,1180.0,1035.0,1380.0,1520.0,1100.0,840.0,800.0,900.0,1250.0,1030.0,980.0,870.0,1250.0,1100.0,1450.0,1030.0,980.0,890.0,850.0,930.0,1215.0,1085.0,1030.0,920.0,1090.0,950.0,1040.0,900.0,990.0,770.0,735.0,810.0,1060.0,945.0,900.0,800.0,1040.0,910.0,1000.0,860.0,1100.0,745.0,710.0,785.0,1020.0,910.0,865.0,770.0,1005.0,880.0,965.0,830.0,790.0,720.0,685.0,755.0,980.0,875.0,930.0,745.0,950.0,835.0,915.0,785.0,750.0,710.0,645.0,710.0,925.0,825.0,785.0,700.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[3180.0,3020.0,3310.0,3200.0,3280.0,3050.0,2740.0,2690.0,3400.0,3510.0,3380.0,2940.0,3270.0,3090.0,3420.0,3290.0,3360.0,3100.0,2810.0,2760.0,3480.0,3580.0,3460.0,3020.0,3370.0,3150.0,3490.0,3320.0,3400.0,3140.0,2850.0,2790.0,3560.0,3660.0,3520.0,3060.0,3420.0,3200.0,3570.0,3400.0,3480.0,3190.0,2890.0,2840.0,3650.0,3750.0,3590.0,3120.0,3470.0,3300.0,3770.0,3910.0,4020.0,3790.0,3480.0,3420.0,4100.0,4190.0,4050.0,3530.0,3820.0,3590.0,3950.0,3790.0,3850.0,3540.0,3240.0,3180.0,3890.0,3990.0,3830.0,3330.0,3610.0,3400.0,3740.0,3560.0,3650.0,3370.0,3060.0,3010.0,3700.0,3780.0,3640.0,3160.0,3440.0,3220.0,3560.0,3390.0,3470.0,3190.0,2900.0,2840.0,3520.0,3620.0,3480.0,3010.0,3310.0,3090.0,3430.0,3260.0,3340.0,3070.0,2790.0,2740.0,3400.0,3490.0,3360.0,2910.0,3200.0,2990.0,3320.0,3150.0,3230.0,2960.0,2690.0,2640.0,3290.0,3380.0,3250.0,2820.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[5250.0,5400.0,5400.0,5200.0,5100.0,4600.0,4400.0,4750.0,5350.0,5500.0,5300.0,4500.0,5150.0,5290.0,5290.0,5100.0,4990.0,4510.0,4310.0,4660.0,5240.0,5390.0,5190.0,4410.0,5040.0,5180.0,5180.0,4990.0,4900.0,4420.0,4220.0,4560.0,5140.0,5280.0,5090.0,4320.0,4830.0,4970.0,4970.0,4780.0,4690.0,4230.0,4050.0,4370.0,4920.0,5060.0,4880.0,4140.0,5250.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4800.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,4600.0,5040.0,5180.0,5180.0,4990.0,4900.0,4420.0,4220.0,4560.0,5140.0,5280.0,5090.0,4320.0,4725.0,4860.0,4860.0,4680.0,4590.0,4140.0,3960.0,4275.0,4815.0,4950.0,4770.0,4050.0,4410.0,4540.0,4540.0,4370.0,4280.0,3860.0,3700.0,3990.0,4490.0,4620.0,4450.0,3780.0,3885.0,3995.0,3995.0,3850.0,3770.0,3400.0,3260.0,3515.0,3960.0,4070.0,3920.0,3330.0,3255.0,3350.0,3350.0,3225.0,3160.0,2850.0,2730.0,2945.0,3320.0,3410.0,3290.0,2790.0]}},{"title":"Brian Griffin","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Brian Griffin\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[30677,24087,24216,19300,21986,24315,26896,28295,25152,25622,22372,24650,24193,18999,24289,22338,21165,20425,19012,20329,22150,17086,19477,19624,19143,13263,17607,15583,15803,17197,19490,17637,14267,15436,15997,18993,21568,15716,19429,13189,12989,13674,14079,15276,14228,13584,13082,13753,14693,12305,13555,16334,16216,13766,12620,12654,13160,13007,15488,14962,16325,16479,19640,17915,16344,12820,14910,14936,18254,12231,12158,12323,11507,11868,18130,19509,17289,14901,18527,16546,17048,21146,24289,26490,24851,18112,17960,13101,14108,12815,13705,14595,13664,14872,20950,21299,23348,19784,14451,14008,13004,10946,12017,14160,13535,14186,24991,15224,15671,16316,18958,12279,11722,11545,11232,10760,9261,10360,9737,9812],"flat_reference_value":16965.72065841385,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[49000.0,45000.0,47000.0,45000.0,47000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,48000.0,51000.0,48000.0,50000.0,53000.0,49000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,46000.0,47000.0,48000.0,52000.0,65000.0,55000.0,53000.0,55000.0,51000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,48000.0,49000.0,50000.0,55000.0,76000.0,58000.0,56000.0,59000.0,54000.0,57000.0,55000.0,56000.0,52000.0,53000.0,54000.0,58000.0,62000.0,60000.0,59000.0,61000.0,57000.0,66000.0,72000.0,70000.0,64000.0,63000.0,62000.0,64000.0,69000.0,66000.0,66000.0,68000.0,62000.0,65000.0,63000.0,64000.0,59000.0,60000.0,61000.0,64000.0,68000.0,65000.0,65000.0,66000.0,60000.0,63000.0,61000.0,62000.0,57000.0,59000.0,60000.0,63000.0,67000.0,64000.0,64000.0,68000.0,62000.0,65000.0,63000.0,64000.0,59000.0,61000.0,62000.0,65000.0,69000.0,75000.0,67000.0,70000.0,65000.0,68000.0,66000.0,67000.0,62000.0,63000.0,64000.0,67000.0,71000.0,68000.0,69000.0,72000.0,66000.0,70000.0,68000.0,69000.0,64000.0,65000.0,66000.0,69000.0,73000.0,70000.0,71000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[37420.0,33180.0,35290.0,33840.0,34910.0,31650.0,32480.0,31920.0,32760.0,36140.0,37850.0,35120.0,34680.0,30450.0,33210.0,31890.0,32740.0,29830.0,31150.0,30620.0,31040.0,35890.0,44720.0,38940.0,34810.0,29760.0,32540.0,31280.0,31950.0,28740.0,30120.0,29680.0,30890.0,39450.0,35620.0,32410.0,32890.0,28340.0,31120.0,29870.0,30450.0,27920.0,29180.0,28760.0,29540.0,31820.0,33690.0,31240.0,32150.0,28940.0,35680.0,41230.0,39840.0,34520.0,33890.0,33120.0,32460.0,34180.0,35920.0,33470.0,33910.0,29650.0,32480.0,31190.0,31760.0,28940.0,30210.0,29850.0,30420.0,32680.0,34510.0,31890.0,32540.0,28470.0,31260.0,30890.0,32140.0,31680.0,34250.0,35890.0,36420.0,38150.0,39840.0,37920.0,39460.0,35120.0,38290.0,36940.0,37580.0,35410.0,36820.0,36190.0,35740.0,37860.0,47650.0,51840.0,42310.0,34680.0,34120.0,31850.0,31420.0,29360.0,30480.0,29750.0,28640.0,30190.0,31840.0,29420.0,29860.0,25940.0,28150.0,26890.0,27340.0,25480.0,26620.0,25910.0,25180.0,26940.0,28750.0,26410.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[53200.0,49100.0,47500.0,44800.0,43200.0,40100.0,41800.0,40500.0,43900.0,48200.0,46100.0,47800.0,46300.0,42100.0,41500.0,39800.0,38200.0,36100.0,37900.0,36800.0,39200.0,42500.0,41300.0,43100.0,41700.0,37900.0,38400.0,36200.0,34500.0,33100.0,34800.0,33900.0,35700.0,38900.0,37400.0,39100.0,37500.0,33800.0,34600.0,32100.0,30500.0,29800.0,31400.0,30200.0,32800.0,35600.0,34200.0,35900.0,34500.0,32200.0,39800.0,44300.0,38700.0,32900.0,32400.0,31100.0,32600.0,34800.0,33500.0,34900.0,33800.0,29900.0,31200.0,28700.0,27400.0,26500.0,28100.0,27300.0,29400.0,31900.0,30800.0,32400.0,31500.0,28200.0,29100.0,27300.0,25900.0,25100.0,26800.0,25700.0,27600.0,30200.0,29100.0,30500.0,29800.0,26400.0,27500.0,25800.0,24300.0,23600.0,25100.0,24400.0,26200.0,28700.0,27400.0,28900.0,30100.0,25300.0,25900.0,24200.0,23100.0,22400.0,23800.0,23100.0,24900.0,27200.0,25800.0,27100.0,26500.0,23400.0,24200.0,22800.0,21700.0,20900.0,22100.0,21500.0,23300.0,25400.0,24100.0,25600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[41000.0,38500.0,39500.0,38000.0,37500.0,36000.0,37000.0,35500.0,34000.0,35500.0,35000.0,36500.0,36500.0,34000.0,34500.0,33500.0,33000.0,32000.0,32500.0,31500.0,30000.0,31500.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30500.0,29500.0,29000.0,28000.0,28500.0,27500.0,26500.0,28000.0,27500.0,28500.0,28500.0,26500.0,27000.0,26000.0,25500.0,25000.0,25500.0,24500.0,23500.0,25000.0,24500.0,25500.0,26000.0,24500.0,27500.0,30500.0,29000.0,27000.0,26500.0,25500.0,24000.0,24500.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,23000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,21500.0,21000.0,20500.0,21500.0,21000.0,21500.0,22000.0,20500.0,21000.0,20500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19500.0,19000.0,18500.0,19500.0,19000.0,19500.0,20000.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,18000.0,17500.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14500.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[78000.0,72000.0,74000.0,70000.0,70000.0,68000.0,70000.0,69000.0,66000.0,68000.0,69000.0,72000.0,72000.0,64000.0,66000.0,63000.0,63000.0,60000.0,62000.0,61000.0,58000.0,60000.0,61000.0,64000.0,64000.0,56000.0,58000.0,55000.0,55000.0,53000.0,54000.0,53000.0,50000.0,52000.0,52000.0,55000.0,56000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,49000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,48000.0,50000.0,51000.0,47000.0,52000.0,58000.0,56000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0,46000.0,46000.0,46000.0,48000.0,49000.0,44000.0,45000.0,43000.0,43000.0,41000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,43000.0,44000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,40000.0,41000.0,39000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,38000.0,39000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[95000.0,100000.0,95000.0,90000.0,95000.0,80000.0,75000.0,75000.0,105000.0,110000.0,120000.0,100000.0,88000.0,92000.0,88000.0,82000.0,88000.0,72000.0,70000.0,70000.0,88000.0,100000.0,108000.0,88000.0,85000.0,88000.0,88000.0,80000.0,82000.0,70000.0,68000.0,70000.0,105000.0,130000.0,125000.0,95000.0,85000.0,85000.0,82000.0,75000.0,78000.0,66000.0,62000.0,63000.0,90000.0,95000.0,105000.0,85000.0,80000.0,82000.0,100000.0,115000.0,98000.0,78000.0,72000.0,72000.0,98000.0,100000.0,110000.0,95000.0,82000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,78000.0,66000.0,63000.0,63000.0,85000.0,90000.0,98000.0,82000.0,80000.0,82000.0,78000.0,72000.0,75000.0,63000.0,60000.0,60000.0,85000.0,88000.0,95000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,80000.0,75000.0,78000.0,72000.0,78000.0,84000.0,98000.0,112000.0,128000.0,100000.0,115000.0,105000.0,92000.0,85000.0,88000.0,78000.0,80000.0,84000.0,90000.0,92000.0,110000.0,95000.0,95000.0,122000.0,108000.0,95000.0,92000.0,84000.0,75000.0,73000.0,84000.0,94000.0,106000.0,90000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[34412.0,30012.0,33580.0,32245.0,31280.0,29103.0,27564.0,28491.0,30955.0,33520.0,31980.0,34083.0,34015.0,27440.0,32210.0,30485.0,29870.0,34920.0,29115.0,26890.0,29530.0,31675.0,30740.0,28055.0,30910.0,26085.0,30560.0,28930.0,28620.0,26340.0,24915.0,25780.0,27810.0,30345.0,28955.0,26620.0,29835.0,25170.0,29310.0,28185.0,27410.0,25420.0,24085.0,24890.0,27075.0,29260.0,27930.0,25715.0,30650.0,27210.0,41240.0,37855.0,32810.0,27905.0,25190.0,25540.0,28065.0,30095.0,29215.0,26605.0,29285.0,24720.0,28970.0,27415.0,27130.0,24985.0,23640.0,24425.0,26580.0,28735.0,27460.0,25210.0,28205.0,23815.0,27940.0,26405.0,26120.0,24055.0,22760.0,23515.0,25595.0,27685.0,26390.0,24310.0,27135.0,22905.0,26860.0,25385.0,25120.0,23135.0,21890.0,22620.0,24615.0,26635.0,25410.0,23385.0,33120.0,25710.0,26330.0,24860.0,24615.0,22670.0,21445.0,22175.0,24130.0,26085.0,24875.0,22920.0,24955.0,21045.0,24725.0,23340.0,23115.0,21270.0,20135.0,20820.0,22655.0,24500.0,23355.0,21505.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[129700.0,113200.0,116800.0,108300.0,107900.0,100400.0,95700.0,102600.0,131400.0,138300.0,143500.0,137700.0,124100.0,110400.0,111200.0,104100.0,103600.0,96200.0,93500.0,98300.0,124600.0,132100.0,138900.0,128300.0,118800.0,103900.0,106700.0,99300.0,98900.0,91700.0,89400.0,93600.0,117800.0,126400.0,133200.0,122900.0,113000.0,98600.0,101800.0,94900.0,94300.0,87400.0,85200.0,89700.0,111300.0,120600.0,126900.0,116900.0,122600.0,110300.0,115600.0,114500.0,110200.0,103900.0,99500.0,102300.0,126100.0,138700.0,147300.0,138700.0,122900.0,106400.0,109900.0,102100.0,101700.0,94300.0,92100.0,96800.0,119400.0,130800.0,137600.0,128800.0,119300.0,107400.0,106300.0,103100.0,99200.0,95400.0,89300.0,95800.0,118300.0,129700.0,135800.0,125300.0,124400.0,112300.0,113400.0,105700.0,105300.0,97600.0,95400.0,100700.0,123800.0,136100.0,141300.0,145700.0,136700.0,118900.0,117300.0,113600.0,109400.0,105200.0,98700.0,106300.0,130700.0,143600.0,149200.0,141200.0,137100.0,119400.0,122700.0,114200.0,113600.0,105300.0,102900.0,108200.0,133600.0,146900.0,152300.0,144800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[122000.0,119000.0,117000.0,115000.0,110000.0,100000.0,97000.0,99000.0,110000.0,125000.0,123000.0,116000.0,109000.0,107000.0,105000.0,103000.0,99000.0,90000.0,87000.0,89000.0,99000.0,112000.0,110000.0,104000.0,99000.0,97000.0,95000.0,93000.0,89000.0,81000.0,78000.0,80000.0,89000.0,101000.0,99000.0,94000.0,90000.0,88000.0,87000.0,85000.0,82000.0,74000.0,71000.0,73000.0,82000.0,93000.0,91000.0,86000.0,84000.0,82000.0,81000.0,79000.0,76000.0,69000.0,66000.0,68000.0,76000.0,86000.0,84000.0,80000.0,77000.0,76000.0,74000.0,73000.0,70000.0,63000.0,61000.0,63000.0,70000.0,80000.0,78000.0,74000.0,72000.0,71000.0,69000.0,68000.0,65000.0,59000.0,57000.0,58000.0,65000.0,74000.0,73000.0,69000.0,67000.0,66000.0,64000.0,63000.0,60000.0,55000.0,53000.0,54000.0,60000.0,69000.0,67000.0,64000.0,63000.0,61000.0,60000.0,59000.0,57000.0,51000.0,49000.0,50000.0,56000.0,64000.0,63000.0,60000.0,58000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,53000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,53000.0,60000.0,59000.0,56000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[525.0,500.0,600.0,530.0,620.0,1080.0,920.0,440.0,630.0,610.0,685.0,550.0,490.0,470.0,600.0,535.0,510.0,610.0,490.0,470.0,545.0,630.0,605.0,540.0,425.0,470.0,510.0,525.0,500.0,515.0,520.0,410.0,545.0,535.0,590.0,450.0,440.0,435.0,535.0,465.0,510.0,530.0,520.0,390.0,530.0,555.0,825.0,890.0,390.0,415.0,415.0,405.0,430.0,495.0,435.0,390.0,475.0,500.0,495.0,445.0,385.0,365.0,440.0,435.0,410.0,465.0,395.0,350.0,460.0,420.0,465.0,390.0,340.0,380.0,415.0,370.0,410.0,425.0,405.0,325.0,610.0,440.0,450.0,395.0,345.0,335.0,410.0,365.0,385.0,395.0,390.0,315.0,410.0,410.0,400.0,365.0,340.0,365.0,395.0,390.0,380.0,795.0,985.0,370.0,430.0,425.0,450.0,360.0,320.0,320.0,385.0,355.0,345.0,395.0,345.0,310.0,680.0,405.0,400.0,355.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[13400.0,12200.0,13600.0,13500.0,17000.0,11800.0,11500.0,11900.0,28500.0,14200.0,13800.0,19500.0,13900.0,12600.0,14200.0,14000.0,17500.0,12300.0,12000.0,12400.0,13600.0,29000.0,14300.0,13900.0,14400.0,13000.0,14800.0,14600.0,18200.0,12700.0,12400.0,12800.0,29500.0,15200.0,14700.0,14300.0,15000.0,13500.0,15300.0,15100.0,18800.0,13100.0,12800.0,13200.0,30500.0,15600.0,15200.0,14700.0,16800.0,15200.0,20500.0,21000.0,23500.0,18500.0,18200.0,18800.0,33500.0,17800.0,17400.0,16800.0,16500.0,14900.0,16800.0,16600.0,20500.0,14200.0,13900.0,14300.0,15800.0,31000.0,16900.0,16200.0,15000.0,13500.0,15300.0,15100.0,18800.0,12800.0,12500.0,12900.0,28000.0,15400.0,15000.0,14400.0,13600.0,12300.0,13900.0,13700.0,17000.0,11600.0,11300.0,11700.0,12900.0,26500.0,13900.0,13300.0,12100.0,10900.0,12400.0,12200.0,15500.0,10400.0,10100.0,10500.0,11400.0,23000.0,12300.0,11700.0,10600.0,15500.0,10800.0,10600.0,13500.0,9200.0,9000.0,9300.0,20500.0,10900.0,10500.0,10100.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1800.0,2200.0,3000.0,5200.0,19000.0,6500.0,2600.0,3600.0,2300.0,1700.0,2100.0,1700.0,2300.0,2100.0,2800.0,3000.0,3900.0,1800.0,900.0,2000.0,2100.0,1700.0,1900.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2300.0,2500.0,3800.0,1600.0,800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1100.0,1400.0,1300.0,1500.0,1700.0,1900.0,2400.0,4300.0,2300.0,900.0,1400.0,1300.0,1000.0,1300.0,1200.0,1300.0,1500.0,1700.0,1900.0,2300.0,1300.0,1400.0,3400.0,1400.0,1100.0,1300.0,1300.0,1800.0,1900.0,2200.0,2500.0,4700.0,2000.0,1000.0,1800.0,1800.0,1400.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,2100.0,2400.0,3500.0,1700.0,900.0,1400.0,1500.0,1200.0,1400.0,1400.0,2100.0,2200.0,2500.0,2800.0,6500.0,3300.0,1400.0,1600.0,1800.0,1500.0,1700.0,1600.0,2300.0,2400.0,2700.0,3100.0,6200.0,3000.0,1200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,2100.0,2400.0,2700.0,3900.0,1900.0,1000.0,1500.0,1600.0,1300.0,1500.0,1500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[6200.0,5800.0,6000.0,5600.0,5500.0,5000.0,5100.0,5000.0,5400.0,5600.0,5500.0,5600.0,5800.0,5400.0,5600.0,5300.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,5100.0,5300.0,5200.0,5300.0,5400.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4800.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4800.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,5100.0,4700.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4700.0,4500.0,5000.0,5200.0,4900.0,4500.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4600.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,4200.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,3800.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3300.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,3200.0,6500.0,4000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[13800.0,14900.0,33500.0,15200.0,12800.0,10600.0,10100.0,10900.0,12300.0,14200.0,15600.0,27800.0,12600.0,13400.0,14700.0,15300.0,12400.0,10300.0,9800.0,10700.0,13100.0,15900.0,16800.0,29500.0,12000.0,13000.0,14200.0,14800.0,12100.0,10000.0,9600.0,10400.0,12900.0,16500.0,17100.0,30200.0,11700.0,12800.0,14000.0,14600.0,11900.0,9800.0,9400.0,10200.0,12600.0,16100.0,16800.0,29900.0,12500.0,13700.0,15800.0,24900.0,17800.0,11800.0,11200.0,12300.0,13900.0,21700.0,18900.0,34600.0,13000.0,14100.0,15400.0,15900.0,12800.0,10700.0,10200.0,11000.0,13400.0,21800.0,18700.0,31800.0,12300.0,13300.0,14800.0,15200.0,12200.0,10200.0,9700.0,10300.0,12900.0,19700.0,17600.0,29200.0,12600.0,13600.0,15000.0,15400.0,12400.0,10400.0,9900.0,10500.0,13100.0,20000.0,18000.0,30300.0,12100.0,13200.0,14700.0,15100.0,12000.0,10000.0,9500.0,10200.0,12700.0,18400.0,16900.0,28100.0,11800.0,12700.0,14200.0,14600.0,11600.0,9700.0,9200.0,9900.0,12200.0,17600.0,16100.0,26700.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[8200.0,7600.0,7400.0,7100.0,7300.0,6800.0,6900.0,7200.0,7900.0,8500.0,8100.0,7800.0,7600.0,7100.0,6900.0,6800.0,7000.0,6500.0,6600.0,6900.0,7600.0,8100.0,7800.0,7500.0,7400.0,6900.0,6700.0,6600.0,6800.0,6300.0,6400.0,6700.0,7400.0,7900.0,7500.0,7200.0,7100.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0,6600.0,6100.0,6200.0,6500.0,7200.0,7700.0,7300.0,7000.0,7000.0,6800.0,7600.0,8200.0,7900.0,7300.0,7200.0,7500.0,8300.0,8800.0,8400.0,8000.0,7700.0,7100.0,6900.0,6800.0,7000.0,6500.0,6600.0,6900.0,7500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7300.0,7000.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,6500.0,6000.0,6100.0,6400.0,7000.0,7500.0,7200.0,6900.0,6700.0,6300.0,6100.0,6000.0,6200.0,5700.0,5800.0,6100.0,6800.0,7300.0,7000.0,6700.0,6400.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,5900.0,5400.0,5500.0,5800.0,6400.0,6900.0,6600.0,6300.0,6100.0,5700.0,5500.0,5400.0,5600.0,5100.0,5200.0,5500.0,6100.0,6600.0,6300.0,6000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[9500.0,9300.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7200.0,8200.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,9000.0,8800.0,8500.0,8000.0,7600.0,7100.0,6700.0,6800.0,7700.0,8500.0,8700.0,8300.0,8400.0,8200.0,7900.0,7500.0,7100.0,6600.0,6200.0,6300.0,7100.0,7800.0,8000.0,7700.0,7800.0,7600.0,7300.0,6900.0,6500.0,6100.0,5800.0,5900.0,6600.0,7200.0,7400.0,7100.0,7300.0,7200.0,7600.0,7400.0,7000.0,6600.0,6400.0,6400.0,6900.0,7300.0,7300.0,7000.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0,6100.0,5900.0,5600.0,5400.0,5400.0,5900.0,6300.0,6400.0,6100.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4600.0,5000.0,5400.0,5500.0,5200.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,4000.0,4300.0,4400.0,4200.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0]}},{"title":"Billy Dee Williams","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Billy Dee Williams\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[120196,48549,52178,59889,46775,34594,37032,46629,51198,58989,57424,111021,80122,66534,50776,61793,71344,43131,43992,37783,33171,54284,47453,104103,66796,55500,42189,56351,132635,64605,92397,57438,56505,46618,40279,60220,71464,62282,55940,119182,79628,49197,52083,59856,77751,85121,112289,370186,108028,49067,53605,71461,96673,57921,54765,49351,57933,44401,59938,79096,121767,60424,52555,48871,51968,41532,46417,44668,40816,37511,36386,40498,53796,47051,50536,49592,52148,62739,67606,43045,38512,39822,39824,50131,51247,44285,53651,64160,55856,47752,58177,54182,43944,44719,42354,45859,60217,200662,69648,84553,58814,65241,46267,48654,62641,52431,48304,49466,49579,44322,44538,56260,68730,49982,56007,48915,56608,46838,53884,46508],"flat_reference_value":16857.670353265457,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[58000.0,34000.0,32000.0,39000.0,35000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,32000.0,58000.0,46000.0,30000.0,31000.0,39000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,33000.0,34000.0,58000.0,45000.0,40000.0,37000.0,48000.0,165000.0,105000.0,125000.0,54000.0,41000.0,38000.0,35000.0,39000.0,36000.0,32000.0,35000.0,105000.0,48000.0,40000.0,45000.0,47000.0,43000.0,58000.0,70000.0,450000.0,190000.0,70000.0,52000.0,61000.0,50000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,37000.0,39000.0,45000.0,52000.0,44000.0,34000.0,35000.0,47000.0,40000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,40000.0,34000.0,34000.0,46000.0,41000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,38000.0,37000.0,32000.0,38000.0,48000.0,40000.0,34000.0,53000.0,37000.0,42000.0,32000.0,31000.0,35000.0,37000.0,115000.0,85000.0,68000.0,42000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,37000.0,35000.0,31000.0,33000.0,50000.0,39000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,35000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[92000.0,78000.0,81000.0,86000.0,89000.0,74000.0,76000.0,73000.0,71000.0,82000.0,79000.0,185000.0,115000.0,84000.0,88000.0,98000.0,95000.0,78000.0,80000.0,76000.0,74000.0,83000.0,86000.0,165000.0,96000.0,112000.0,89000.0,105000.0,380000.0,145000.0,195000.0,88000.0,82000.0,79000.0,81000.0,85000.0,84000.0,82000.0,86000.0,240000.0,110000.0,83000.0,85000.0,84000.0,80000.0,95000.0,490000.0,620000.0,160000.0,92000.0,88000.0,105000.0,155000.0,90000.0,86000.0,84000.0,79000.0,82000.0,94000.0,108000.0,91000.0,83000.0,85000.0,96000.0,98000.0,77000.0,79000.0,76000.0,74000.0,75000.0,78000.0,88000.0,82000.0,75000.0,78000.0,89000.0,102000.0,84000.0,76000.0,73000.0,71000.0,72000.0,74000.0,81000.0,77000.0,71000.0,76000.0,88000.0,94000.0,72000.0,78000.0,74000.0,69000.0,71000.0,73000.0,82000.0,79000.0,215000.0,110000.0,165000.0,105000.0,78000.0,74000.0,72000.0,135000.0,76000.0,73000.0,81000.0,76000.0,69000.0,72000.0,86000.0,92000.0,68000.0,70000.0,69000.0,66000.0,68000.0,71000.0,79000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[42100.0,39400.0,38200.0,44100.0,41300.0,36900.0,38500.0,37200.0,35800.0,55400.0,41800.0,46700.0,43500.0,40200.0,44800.0,49100.0,42600.0,39800.0,41200.0,38700.0,37100.0,39500.0,42300.0,48900.0,44200.0,52100.0,46500.0,49800.0,78300.0,58200.0,194000.0,76500.0,54200.0,51800.0,48300.0,52700.0,50400.0,48100.0,51200.0,142000.0,75300.0,58900.0,56400.0,81200.0,59800.0,88500.0,115000.0,665000.0,182000.0,72400.0,52100.0,56300.0,54800.0,43500.0,41200.0,39400.0,37100.0,38900.0,42300.0,61200.0,45300.0,41800.0,39100.0,42500.0,44100.0,36700.0,38200.0,35400.0,34100.0,36900.0,38400.0,41200.0,39800.0,37500.0,36200.0,42800.0,45300.0,37100.0,35900.0,34800.0,32900.0,35400.0,36700.0,39100.0,38200.0,36400.0,37900.0,44500.0,41800.0,35600.0,37200.0,34500.0,41300.0,36800.0,38900.0,43100.0,46500.0,105000.0,54200.0,47100.0,43800.0,36500.0,35900.0,34200.0,33100.0,35800.0,37400.0,39500.0,38200.0,36100.0,35300.0,40100.0,38900.0,33800.0,34600.0,33200.0,32100.0,34500.0,35800.0,37900.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,42000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,40000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,34000.0,36000.0,52000.0,42000.0,45000.0,40000.0,60000.0,170000.0,80000.0,45000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,40000.0,38000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,42000.0,38000.0,33000.0,40000.0,38000.0,33000.0,36000.0,90000.0,260000.0,95000.0,48000.0,45000.0,48000.0,52000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,30000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,33000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,32000.0,38000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,34000.0,48000.0,32000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,28000.0,30000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[260000.0,160000.0,140000.0,135000.0,135000.0,125000.0,125000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,120000.0,230000.0,170000.0,125000.0,120000.0,130000.0,125000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,110000.0,125000.0,125000.0,260000.0,180000.0,150000.0,130000.0,150000.0,400000.0,230000.0,330000.0,150000.0,140000.0,125000.0,120000.0,150000.0,140000.0,130000.0,130000.0,260000.0,160000.0,140000.0,140000.0,150000.0,130000.0,170000.0,220000.0,950000.0,380000.0,170000.0,160000.0,170000.0,170000.0,140000.0,130000.0,125000.0,115000.0,115000.0,120000.0,140000.0,130000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,110000.0,110000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,105000.0,105000.0,95000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,95000.0,95000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,90000.0,95000.0,180000.0,110000.0,150000.0,100000.0,95000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,95000.0,85000.0,90000.0,90000.0,85000.0,80000.0,85000.0,85000.0,80000.0,80000.0,78000.0,75000.0,75000.0,75000.0,80000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[21500.0,20000.0,19500.0,22500.0,23500.0,20000.0,19500.0,22500.0,19500.0,31000.0,23000.0,36000.0,29000.0,48000.0,24000.0,26000.0,27000.0,23500.0,22500.0,22000.0,21500.0,22500.0,25500.0,37000.0,28500.0,23500.0,22500.0,25000.0,56000.0,35000.0,53000.0,30000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,34000.0,27500.0,25000.0,112000.0,56000.0,33000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28500.0,27000.0,66000.0,57000.0,305000.0,82000.0,32000.0,34500.0,36000.0,56000.0,31500.0,29500.0,28000.0,27000.0,26500.0,28500.0,49000.0,30000.0,27000.0,25500.0,28500.0,30500.0,33500.0,26500.0,24500.0,24000.0,24000.0,24500.0,34000.0,26500.0,23500.0,22500.0,26500.0,35500.0,25500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,24000.0,32000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22500.0,38500.0,33500.0,24000.0,40500.0,25000.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,31000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21500.0,25500.0,29500.0,22000.0,23000.0,21500.0,38000.0,22500.0,22000.0,29500.0,22500.0,21000.0,21000.0,25000.0,28000.0,21500.0,22000.0,20500.0,20500.0,20500.0,21000.0,27500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[32450.0,22180.0,19640.0,18920.0,24310.0,18050.0,17620.0,17890.0,17340.0,18210.0,19050.0,38720.0,26430.0,19870.0,18540.0,21340.0,27850.0,18120.0,17560.0,17030.0,17480.0,20410.0,21960.0,34680.0,20150.0,18320.0,19040.0,26470.0,135800.0,68420.0,28310.0,19640.0,17890.0,17540.0,17120.0,18960.0,16840.0,15930.0,16210.0,58730.0,22410.0,16580.0,15720.0,19340.0,16120.0,34560.0,72480.0,248300.0,68150.0,28430.0,22180.0,19640.0,21750.0,15320.0,14890.0,14560.0,14120.0,16430.0,16980.0,18240.0,15210.0,13980.0,13650.0,13420.0,17840.0,13110.0,12860.0,12540.0,12730.0,13020.0,13880.0,15640.0,14920.0,13450.0,12980.0,12640.0,20310.0,15480.0,13120.0,12540.0,12890.0,12470.0,12830.0,13560.0,13240.0,12180.0,13680.0,14120.0,16540.0,12340.0,15870.0,13210.0,12960.0,12410.0,12080.0,12890.0,12340.0,32750.0,18420.0,13150.0,16820.0,12980.0,11940.0,11720.0,20460.0,12680.0,12150.0,13240.0,12080.0,11540.0,11890.0,15630.0,17240.0,11680.0,11210.0,10980.0,11040.0,11520.0,11310.0,12450.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[34500.0,24800.0,22400.0,21200.0,21800.0,20600.0,22300.0,19700.0,19200.0,19800.0,20400.0,31200.0,25600.0,21300.0,20500.0,22100.0,19800.0,18900.0,18200.0,18400.0,19300.0,22600.0,22900.0,33400.0,22800.0,18600.0,18100.0,29700.0,38900.0,22400.0,18300.0,33600.0,20200.0,19100.0,18800.0,19600.0,19800.0,18700.0,19100.0,44200.0,23600.0,20100.0,19800.0,19400.0,30800.0,31600.0,23900.0,68400.0,31200.0,23400.0,21600.0,20300.0,19400.0,17800.0,17200.0,17400.0,17600.0,17900.0,18100.0,19200.0,17600.0,15800.0,15400.0,16600.0,16900.0,15700.0,15300.0,15600.0,16200.0,16400.0,17100.0,18700.0,16200.0,14600.0,14200.0,15100.0,19400.0,15300.0,14100.0,13900.0,14300.0,14200.0,14400.0,15100.0,14200.0,13100.0,12800.0,13600.0,15200.0,13100.0,12700.0,14100.0,13000.0,12600.0,12500.0,13400.0,12600.0,11800.0,11500.0,13200.0,14600.0,11900.0,11600.0,11400.0,11700.0,11500.0,11300.0,12700.0,11800.0,11000.0,10700.0,12400.0,13800.0,11200.0,10900.0,10600.0,10800.0,10700.0,10500.0,11600.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[38000.0,26000.0,23000.0,30000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19000.0,21000.0,23000.0,25000.0,48000.0,30000.0,22000.0,20000.0,26000.0,20000.0,18000.0,20000.0,18000.0,20000.0,22000.0,24000.0,42000.0,26000.0,22000.0,22000.0,28000.0,95000.0,48000.0,165000.0,60000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,48000.0,38000.0,30000.0,32000.0,135000.0,48000.0,38000.0,38000.0,55000.0,38000.0,115000.0,65000.0,460000.0,230000.0,65000.0,52000.0,58000.0,42000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,42000.0,75000.0,48000.0,48000.0,37000.0,32000.0,42000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,48000.0,42000.0,34000.0,32000.0,40000.0,47000.0,37000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,42000.0,40000.0,32000.0,30000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,38000.0,42000.0,125000.0,58000.0,52000.0,40000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,37000.0,40000.0,42000.0,48000.0,44000.0,37000.0,34000.0,42000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,40000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[14800.0,11200.0,9600.0,10200.0,9200.0,8600.0,8100.0,8300.0,8000.0,7900.0,8100.0,9200.0,8200.0,7200.0,7100.0,9800.0,8900.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,6800.0,7200.0,7800.0,9500.0,8200.0,6900.0,6600.0,7200.0,13800.0,11900.0,8400.0,7600.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7600.0,7300.0,6600.0,6900.0,8600.0,7800.0,7200.0,6800.0,8600.0,7500.0,11200.0,14800.0,26900.0,18900.0,9800.0,8200.0,9100.0,7200.0,6400.0,6000.0,5900.0,5700.0,5600.0,5700.0,6200.0,5600.0,5100.0,5200.0,5800.0,6200.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,5200.0,5600.0,5200.0,4800.0,4900.0,6400.0,5800.0,6200.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,5100.0,5400.0,5600.0,6100.0,5000.0,5700.0,5500.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,4600.0,4700.0,5400.0,5200.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4900.0,4600.0,4900.0,4700.0,4400.0,4600.0,5900.0,6400.0,7200.0,9800.0,8600.0,6800.0,5600.0,5100.0,4900.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[58000.0,44000.0,36000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,72000.0,55000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,34000.0,23000.0,92000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,270000.0,20000.0,19000.0,62000.0,21000.0,47000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,23000.0,19000.0,18000.0,20000.0,55000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,48000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,390000.0,18000.0,17000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,20000.0,16000.0,15000.0,17000.0,17000.0,18000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,16000.0,16000.0,27000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,17000.0,14000.0,13000.0,15000.0,15000.0,16000.0,24000.0,16000.0,25000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,16000.0,13000.0,12000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,27000.0,12000.0,11000.0,13000.0,13000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,15000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2350.0,2180.0,2320.0,2280.0,2510.0,2420.0,2290.0,2180.0,2330.0,2480.0,2690.0,2860.0,2740.0,2480.0,2580.0,2920.0,28500.0,10400.0,3600.0,3290.0,3410.0,3650.0,4380.0,10200.0,4100.0,3350.0,3520.0,7600.0,34200.0,12600.0,4380.0,4020.0,4140.0,4450.0,4820.0,5200.0,3380.0,2960.0,3120.0,3280.0,3510.0,3200.0,3010.0,3090.0,3260.0,4720.0,5310.0,18600.0,3460.0,3350.0,3430.0,3620.0,5360.0,4060.0,3740.0,3610.0,3790.0,4070.0,4680.0,11400.0,6800.0,4620.0,4490.0,4720.0,9100.0,5680.0,4890.0,4680.0,4920.0,5220.0,5680.0,6370.0,5940.0,5360.0,5580.0,6420.0,15600.0,9080.0,6520.0,5910.0,6190.0,6510.0,7040.0,7620.0,7180.0,6610.0,24100.0,14500.0,13600.0,8480.0,7030.0,6620.0,6880.0,7310.0,7920.0,8620.0,7940.0,7210.0,14900.0,8310.0,7880.0,7240.0,6820.0,6790.0,7090.0,16400.0,524000.0,38200.0,24700.0,13600.0,9580.0,8240.0,9020.0,7640.0,7020.0,6740.0,7020.0,7540.0,8560.0,9480.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,48000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,58000.0,52000.0,42000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,40000.0,68000.0,48000.0,48000.0,55000.0,150000.0,75000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,72000.0,42000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,29000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[85000.0,62000.0,58000.0,70000.0,63000.0,65000.0,72000.0,75000.0,64000.0,66000.0,75000.0,165000.0,110000.0,70000.0,60000.0,75000.0,66000.0,62000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,68000.0,85000.0,120000.0,95000.0,70000.0,65000.0,80000.0,150000.0,105000.0,75000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,70000.0,110000.0,92000.0,68000.0,65000.0,82000.0,70000.0,75000.0,140000.0,92000.0,88000.0,92000.0,105000.0,2200000.0,1050000.0,390000.0,160000.0,105000.0,82000.0,70000.0,62000.0,60000.0,55000.0,52000.0,56000.0,85000.0,68000.0,54000.0,50000.0,72000.0,60000.0,55000.0,58000.0,58000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,65000.0,62000.0,48000.0,45000.0,65000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,46000.0,45000.0,48000.0,60000.0,56000.0,44000.0,42000.0,62000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,45000.0,58000.0,52000.0,42000.0,40000.0,60000.0,48000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,44000.0,56000.0,50000.0,40000.0,38000.0,57000.0,70000.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,39000.0,42000.0,54000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[10500.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,9100.0,8500.0,8800.0,8500.0,8200.0,8900.0,9000.0,10500.0,9300.0,8800.0,9000.0,9500.0,9800.0,9000.0,9200.0,8800.0,8500.0,9200.0,9500.0,12000.0,10500.0,18000.0,12500.0,23000.0,56000.0,26000.0,15000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,11000.0,11500.0,35000.0,17000.0,14000.0,18000.0,13000.0,12500.0,30000.0,19000.0,62000.0,22000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,14500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11800.0,12500.0,13500.0,12000.0,13000.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,11200.0,12000.0,10500.0,10800.0,10300.0,10000.0,10800.0,11000.0,12500.0,10500.0,9800.0,10200.0,11000.0,11500.0,10000.0,10300.0,9800.0,9600.0,10200.0,10500.0,11500.0,10200.0,9600.0,9900.0,10000.0,14500.0,11000.0,10500.0,9800.0,9600.0,10000.0,10500.0,11200.0,26000.0,22000.0,14000.0,17000.0,14500.0,12500.0,12000.0,18000.0,12000.0,11200.0,11500.0,12500.0,11000.0,10200.0,10500.0,10300.0,12500.0,10000.0,10200.0,9800.0,9600.0,10000.0,10300.0,11200.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3900.0,3880.0,3780.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3700.0,3780.0,4000.0,3550.0,3450.0,3400.0,3350.0,3350.0,3200.0,3100.0,3150.0,3300.0,3400.0,3450.0,3550.0,3600.0,3550.0,3500.0,3550.0,9500.0,6000.0,4000.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3000.0,3050.0,3150.0,3300.0,3400.0,8500.0,3800.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3150.0,3200.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3050.0,3000.0,2950.0,3050.0,2900.0,2850.0,2850.0,2900.0,3000.0,3050.0,3150.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2850.0,2900.0,2750.0,2700.0,2700.0,2750.0,2800.0,2850.0,2900.0,2850.0,2800.0,2750.0,2700.0,2750.0,2600.0,2550.0,2550.0,2600.0,2650.0,2700.0,2750.0,2650.0,2600.0,2550.0,2500.0,2550.0,2400.0,2350.0,2350.0,2400.0,2450.0,2500.0,2550.0,2420.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2350.0,2200.0,2150.0,2150.0,2200.0,2250.0,2300.0,2350.0]}},{"title":"Chungking Mansions","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Chungking Mansions\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[7076,5931,6703,6559,6926,5642,6764,6522,7239,7586,7216,6692,7589,6633,7775,8571,6792,6760,6982,7975,8846,7968,7818,6924,7636,6421,10045,9151,7693,10637,8263,8084,7864,8194,7610,7354,7339,8016,7733,6641,6459,8875,6424,5833,4977,8161,5685,4715,5696,3324,3548,5026,5803,3983,3764,3740,3709,3916,4369,4862,4525,4753,4395,4620,4548,3465,5131,4628,5285,5313,4825,3882,4668,3831,3929,4024,4624,4199,4547,4935,4589,4701,5150,4991,5775,6462,9400,6668,7198,6472,8266,7558,7369,7155,7771,7696,11089,7794,8212,6728,6515,5909,6638,6615,7393,7853,9869,8749,7914,7281,8172,7950,7885,9803,9450,14937,9946,8726,11687,10114],"flat_reference_value":17046.734320230225,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7900.0,7400.0,8100.0,7800.0,7600.0,7300.0,8000.0,8200.0,7500.0,8100.0,7900.0,8400.0,8600.0,7700.0,8200.0,7900.0,8100.0,7600.0,8400.0,8700.0,7900.0,8500.0,8200.0,8800.0,9000.0,8100.0,8800.0,8400.0,8200.0,8000.0,8800.0,9100.0,8300.0,9000.0,8700.0,9200.0,9500.0,8600.0,9100.0,8700.0,8900.0,10100.0,10500.0,11200.0,9800.0,10100.0,9600.0,9700.0,9600.0,9000.0,8900.0,8200.0,8100.0,7900.0,8300.0,8500.0,8000.0,8600.0,8400.0,9000.0,9400.0,8700.0,9900.0,9600.0,9000.0,8700.0,9200.0,9500.0,8900.0,9300.0,9100.0,9700.0,9800.0,8900.0,9500.0,9300.0,9100.0,8800.0,9500.0,9800.0,9200.0,9900.0,9600.0,10200.0,10500.0,9500.0,10200.0,9900.0,10100.0,9700.0,10500.0,11000.0,10100.0,10800.0,10400.0,11200.0,11400.0,10300.0,11000.0,10600.0,10800.0,10400.0,11900.0,11600.0,10700.0,11400.0,11000.0,11800.0,12000.0,10800.0,11500.0,11200.0,11300.0,10900.0,11700.0,12000.0,11000.0,11800.0,11400.0,12100.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[21400.0,19800.0,20900.0,19500.0,19100.0,18400.0,19700.0,20200.0,19600.0,21500.0,22100.0,20800.0,22300.0,20100.0,21600.0,20400.0,19800.0,18900.0,20300.0,20700.0,19900.0,21800.0,22400.0,21200.0,22900.0,20500.0,22100.0,20800.0,19900.0,19100.0,20400.0,21100.0,20300.0,22200.0,23100.0,21900.0,23400.0,21000.0,22500.0,21200.0,20600.0,23800.0,24500.0,26200.0,24100.0,46500.0,29800.0,22400.0,21800.0,18200.0,16500.0,16900.0,17200.0,16400.0,17800.0,17100.0,16200.0,16800.0,16500.0,17900.0,18600.0,17400.0,21500.0,20200.0,17900.0,16800.0,17500.0,17200.0,16400.0,16900.0,16600.0,17100.0,17800.0,16900.0,17300.0,16500.0,16200.0,15800.0,18400.0,17900.0,17500.0,18600.0,19200.0,19800.0,21500.0,22800.0,25400.0,24100.0,22600.0,20900.0,22300.0,23100.0,21800.0,23500.0,24200.0,22900.0,23600.0,21900.0,22700.0,27400.0,22100.0,20500.0,23800.0,21600.0,20200.0,21400.0,21900.0,20800.0,21500.0,19600.0,20800.0,19900.0,19200.0,18400.0,19500.0,19800.0,18700.0,20100.0,22600.0,20300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[11400.0,10800.0,12100.0,11700.0,11300.0,10900.0,11500.0,12200.0,11800.0,12500.0,13100.0,12400.0,12900.0,11800.0,13200.0,12600.0,12000.0,11500.0,12800.0,13400.0,12700.0,13100.0,13900.0,13200.0,13600.0,12400.0,14100.0,13300.0,12800.0,12100.0,13000.0,13700.0,12900.0,13800.0,14200.0,13500.0,14100.0,12800.0,14300.0,13700.0,13200.0,14800.0,15400.0,16100.0,15200.0,42300.0,21800.0,15600.0,14900.0,13800.0,14700.0,16200.0,15500.0,14100.0,13900.0,14400.0,13600.0,14200.0,15800.0,16700.0,15900.0,14500.0,15200.0,16800.0,15100.0,14200.0,14600.0,14300.0,13500.0,14100.0,13800.0,13600.0,13900.0,12400.0,13100.0,12800.0,12300.0,11900.0,12700.0,13100.0,12400.0,13300.0,13600.0,13200.0,14200.0,13500.0,14600.0,13900.0,13100.0,12700.0,13400.0,14100.0,13000.0,13800.0,14500.0,14000.0,14400.0,13200.0,14100.0,13600.0,12900.0,12400.0,13100.0,13700.0,12800.0,13500.0,14000.0,13600.0,14100.0,12900.0,13800.0,13400.0,12700.0,12200.0,12900.0,13500.0,12600.0,13300.0,13800.0,13400.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[13200.0,11800.0,12600.0,12300.0,12100.0,12000.0,12900.0,13100.0,11900.0,12200.0,11800.0,11500.0,12700.0,11300.0,12100.0,11900.0,11700.0,11600.0,12400.0,12600.0,11400.0,11800.0,11500.0,11200.0,12100.0,10800.0,11500.0,11300.0,11200.0,12400.0,12000.0,12100.0,11000.0,11300.0,11000.0,10800.0,11600.0,10400.0,11000.0,10900.0,10800.0,11900.0,12300.0,12800.0,11800.0,11900.0,12400.0,11000.0,11500.0,10300.0,10600.0,11800.0,11400.0,10900.0,10700.0,10500.0,9800.0,9900.0,9700.0,9600.0,11800.0,9600.0,9900.0,9700.0,9500.0,9300.0,9600.0,9500.0,9000.0,9200.0,9000.0,8900.0,9800.0,9100.0,9900.0,9000.0,8800.0,8700.0,9000.0,9100.0,8600.0,8800.0,8600.0,8500.0,9200.0,8600.0,9000.0,9100.0,8900.0,8800.0,9300.0,9500.0,8700.0,8900.0,8700.0,8600.0,9000.0,8300.0,8700.0,8600.0,8500.0,8400.0,8900.0,9000.0,8300.0,8500.0,8300.0,8200.0,8600.0,7900.0,8300.0,8200.0,8100.0,8000.0,8400.0,8500.0,7900.0,8000.0,7800.0,7700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[13500.0,12800.0,13200.0,12600.0,12500.0,12000.0,12800.0,13000.0,12000.0,12300.0,12000.0,12500.0,12800.0,11500.0,12200.0,12000.0,11800.0,11300.0,12000.0,12200.0,11200.0,11500.0,11300.0,11800.0,12000.0,10800.0,11500.0,11200.0,11000.0,10600.0,11200.0,11400.0,10500.0,10800.0,10600.0,11000.0,11200.0,10200.0,10800.0,10500.0,10500.0,10800.0,11200.0,11800.0,11000.0,14500.0,11500.0,10800.0,10500.0,9500.0,9200.0,9800.0,10000.0,9300.0,9300.0,9200.0,8800.0,8800.0,8700.0,9000.0,9200.0,8500.0,8800.0,8500.0,8600.0,8300.0,8500.0,8600.0,8200.0,8300.0,8200.0,8400.0,8600.0,8000.0,8300.0,8100.0,8200.0,8000.0,8300.0,8500.0,8200.0,8500.0,8600.0,9000.0,9800.0,9500.0,10200.0,10200.0,10300.0,10000.0,10500.0,10600.0,10000.0,10200.0,10000.0,10400.0,10500.0,9800.0,10300.0,10200.0,10200.0,9800.0,10200.0,10400.0,9800.0,10000.0,9900.0,10300.0,10400.0,9600.0,10200.0,10000.0,10100.0,9700.0,10000.0,10200.0,9600.0,9800.0,9700.0,10000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9400.0,8900.0,9800.0,10300.0,10600.0,11200.0,11800.0,11300.0,10100.0,10400.0,9700.0,10600.0,9900.0,9300.0,10200.0,10700.0,11100.0,11900.0,12700.0,12100.0,10600.0,11100.0,10300.0,11200.0,10700.0,10000.0,11200.0,11700.0,12100.0,12900.0,13600.0,13100.0,12600.0,11600.0,11100.0,12100.0,11200.0,10400.0,11400.0,11900.0,12800.0,17500.0,21000.0,23500.0,20000.0,18500.0,18000.0,14500.0,13500.0,16500.0,18500.0,14500.0,11500.0,13500.0,15500.0,13800.0,11800.0,11200.0,10800.0,11200.0,10200.0,9400.0,9800.0,9900.0,9600.0,10300.0,9800.0,9400.0,9100.0,9000.0,8700.0,9200.0,9000.0,8800.0,9600.0,8400.0,8200.0,9000.0,8800.0,8400.0,8200.0,8200.0,8300.0,8700.0,10200.0,10000.0,10600.0,11200.0,10900.0,11200.0,12100.0,11600.0,10900.0,11300.0,10600.0,11100.0,11400.0,11000.0,11800.0,12200.0,12400.0,12800.0,13800.0,13300.0,12400.0,12800.0,12100.0,12900.0,12300.0,11900.0,12700.0,13200.0,13100.0,13500.0,14300.0,13900.0,13000.0,13400.0,12700.0,13600.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[6850.0,5620.0,6480.0,6030.0,6350.0,6580.0,7240.0,7150.0,6120.0,6780.0,5930.0,6590.0,6620.0,5180.0,6250.0,5720.0,6130.0,6240.0,6890.0,6760.0,5840.0,6450.0,5560.0,6180.0,6430.0,5090.0,6160.0,5610.0,6020.0,6130.0,6770.0,6680.0,5750.0,6340.0,5470.0,6080.0,6840.0,5580.0,6520.0,6010.0,6420.0,6890.0,8280.0,8350.0,7180.0,7750.0,7420.0,7510.0,8420.0,6950.0,10340.0,10280.0,8950.0,9120.0,8720.0,8590.0,7430.0,8190.0,7080.0,7950.0,6730.0,5280.0,6360.0,5820.0,6230.0,6350.0,6980.0,6890.0,5940.0,6550.0,5660.0,6280.0,6180.0,5650.0,6710.0,5430.0,5720.0,5810.0,6410.0,6320.0,5450.0,6010.0,5180.0,5830.0,5840.0,4580.0,5510.0,5050.0,5410.0,5510.0,6650.0,6580.0,5150.0,5680.0,4900.0,5520.0,6060.0,4920.0,5730.0,5250.0,5610.0,6840.0,7540.0,6910.0,5350.0,5890.0,5090.0,5730.0,5620.0,4390.0,5310.0,4860.0,5200.0,5290.0,5830.0,5740.0,4950.0,5460.0,4710.0,5310.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[14200.0,13500.0,15000.0,14800.0,15200.0,16000.0,17200.0,16800.0,15000.0,14800.0,15200.0,16500.0,15200.0,14300.0,16000.0,15800.0,16200.0,17000.0,18500.0,18000.0,16000.0,15800.0,16200.0,17600.0,16400.0,15300.0,17000.0,16800.0,17300.0,18200.0,19800.0,19300.0,17100.0,16900.0,17300.0,18800.0,17500.0,16300.0,18000.0,17800.0,18500.0,22000.0,24000.0,32000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,21000.0,24000.0,21000.0,25000.0,28000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,18500.0,19500.0,21000.0,24000.0,22000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,20500.0,20000.0,18500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19800.0,21000.0,23000.0,20500.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,19500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,20500.0,22000.0,23000.0,21500.0,21000.0,21500.0,22500.0,25000.0,25500.0,22500.0,22000.0,22500.0,24000.0,23000.0,21500.0,23000.0,23500.0,24000.0,25500.0,28000.0,27500.0,24500.0,24000.0,24500.0,26000.0,25000.0,23500.0,25000.0,25500.0,26000.0,27500.0,30000.0,29500.0,26500.0,26000.0,26500.0,28000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,2700.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2900.0,2900.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2800.0,4000.0,5500.0,6500.0,4800.0,3800.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,2700.0,2400.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2400.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2600.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1900.0,1950.0,1850.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1950.0,2050.0,1750.0,1900.0,1800.0,2100.0,2150.0,1800.0,1950.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,2050.0,2150.0,1850.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2150.0,1900.0,1850.0,1950.0,2250.0,2350.0,2000.0,2150.0,2050.0,2400.0,2250.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2250.0,3400.0,3950.0,4700.0,4000.0,3500.0,3150.0,2850.0,2300.0,2000.0,1550.0,1350.0,1400.0,2250.0,1850.0,1550.0,1450.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1350.0,1450.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1550.0,1350.0,1250.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,1050.0,1100.0,1150.0,1250.0,1350.0,1500.0,1600.0,1750.0,1950.0,1900.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2550.0,2700.0,2600.0,2950.0,2750.0,2850.0,2700.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,2900.0,3000.0,2700.0,2850.0,2750.0,3150.0,2900.0,2900.0,2850.0,2650.0,2600.0,2750.0,3050.0,3150.0,2850.0,3000.0,2900.0,3300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[6500.0,7600.0,6200.0,6550.0,6800.0,6950.0,7200.0,7050.0,6450.0,7200.0,6550.0,6800.0,7950.0,7700.0,6900.0,7300.0,7600.0,7700.0,8000.0,7850.0,7150.0,8000.0,7300.0,7600.0,8100.0,9400.0,7700.0,8150.0,8450.0,8600.0,8950.0,8750.0,8000.0,8950.0,8150.0,8450.0,9250.0,10700.0,8800.0,9300.0,11600.0,18200.0,16300.0,15050.0,13250.0,15800.0,16300.0,14050.0,9550.0,9300.0,8300.0,8800.0,9150.0,10200.0,12500.0,10900.0,8650.0,9600.0,8800.0,9150.0,8000.0,9350.0,7600.0,8050.0,8350.0,8500.0,8800.0,8650.0,7900.0,8800.0,8050.0,8350.0,7050.0,8150.0,6700.0,7100.0,7350.0,7500.0,7750.0,7650.0,7300.0,8150.0,7450.0,7700.0,9450.0,10500.0,9000.0,8700.0,9000.0,9200.0,9500.0,9350.0,8500.0,9500.0,8700.0,9000.0,11000.0,12800.0,13100.0,12800.0,11550.0,14100.0,18900.0,14950.0,10900.0,12200.0,11150.0,12700.0,14000.0,13650.0,12200.0,12950.0,13400.0,13650.0,14150.0,13900.0,14600.0,16250.0,12950.0,14750.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1700.0,1850.0,1900.0,1750.0,1850.0,2050.0,2350.0,2450.0,1950.0,2150.0,2350.0,2550.0,2250.0,2350.0,2450.0,2200.0,2450.0,2650.0,3050.0,3250.0,2550.0,2750.0,2950.0,3150.0,2800.0,3000.0,3150.0,2850.0,3050.0,3350.0,3850.0,4150.0,3250.0,3550.0,3850.0,4150.0,3600.0,3800.0,4050.0,3750.0,4350.0,6200.0,5500.0,4650.0,3950.0,7000.0,18000.0,6000.0,5100.0,45000.0,14500.0,4800.0,3500.0,2850.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2800.0,3000.0,3300.0,3000.0,2650.0,2350.0,2050.0,1850.0,1650.0,1750.0,1850.0,1750.0,2050.0,2250.0,2450.0,2350.0,2150.0,2200.0,1950.0,2050.0,1950.0,2050.0,2150.0,2250.0,2650.0,2950.0,3450.0,4100.0,3750.0,3450.0,3500.0,3800.0,4200.0,4750.0,5150.0,4350.0,4650.0,4950.0,5350.0,4600.0,5000.0,4900.0,4750.0,5050.0,5550.0,6250.0,6850.0,5650.0,5950.0,6350.0,6950.0,6250.0,6050.0,6450.0,6150.0,6650.0,7250.0,150000.0,9200.0,6900.0,7350.0,7950.0,8450.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1550.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1350.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1450.0,1450.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1100.0,1000.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,950.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[850.0,800.0,760.0,740.0,880.0,1000.0,1120.0,1080.0,890.0,980.0,850.0,900.0,920.0,870.0,830.0,810.0,960.0,1100.0,1230.0,1190.0,980.0,1080.0,920.0,970.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,880.0,1040.0,1180.0,1320.0,1280.0,1060.0,1170.0,1000.0,1050.0,1020.0,980.0,920.0,900.0,1050.0,2200.0,2400.0,3000.0,2450.0,2650.0,2500.0,2100.0,900.0,620.0,540.0,480.0,560.0,880.0,630.0,600.0,540.0,650.0,550.0,700.0,720.0,580.0,520.0,500.0,600.0,700.0,820.0,760.0,620.0,700.0,600.0,680.0,850.0,650.0,620.0,600.0,680.0,820.0,960.0,900.0,720.0,840.0,750.0,1250.0,2200.0,1300.0,1100.0,1180.0,1350.0,1750.0,2100.0,1950.0,1350.0,1800.0,1300.0,1600.0,1500.0,1300.0,1150.0,1250.0,1400.0,1700.0,2000.0,1900.0,1450.0,1750.0,1350.0,1550.0,1450.0,1250.0,1100.0,1150.0,1300.0,1500.0,1750.0,1650.0,1250.0,1500.0,1200.0,1350.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2300.0,2200.0,2500.0,2400.0,2550.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2500.0,2200.0,2150.0,2350.0,2250.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2450.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2350.0,2100.0,2050.0,2300.0,2200.0,2350.0,2250.0,2450.0,2350.0,2200.0,2200.0,2150.0,2300.0,2150.0,2050.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2800.0,3400.0,3600.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2500.0,3800.0,4200.0,3500.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,1950.0,2150.0,2050.0,2150.0,2050.0,2200.0,2100.0,1950.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,1950.0,1850.0,1900.0,2000.0,2150.0,2000.0,1900.0,2150.0,2050.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2050.0,2100.0,2050.0,2250.0,2100.0,2000.0,2250.0,2150.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2150.0,2200.0,2150.0,2350.0,2200.0,2050.0,2300.0,2200.0,2350.0,2250.0,2450.0,2350.0,2200.0,2250.0,2150.0,2350.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4100.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,4200.0,4300.0,4200.0,3700.0,4000.0,4000.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,4000.0,4050.0,4000.0,3500.0,3900.0,3900.0,4000.0,3800.0,3750.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3850.0,3950.0,3850.0,3400.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4900.0,5300.0,5000.0,4800.0,4700.0,4500.0,4000.0,4500.0,5200.0,6500.0,7000.0,5500.0,4800.0,4300.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3700.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,2900.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,3050.0,3000.0,2700.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,2900.0,2850.0,2650.0,2600.0,2550.0,2800.0,2800.0,2750.0,2400.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2550.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2500.0,2500.0,2450.0,2200.0,2500.0,2500.0,2550.0,2400.0,2350.0,2200.0,2150.0,2100.0,2300.0,2300.0,2250.0,2000.0]}},{"title":"Grilled (Breaking Bad)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Grilled (Breaking Bad)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[3631,2999,3009,2523,2467,2265,2433,2243,2732,1963,1939,4543,3457,2067,2111,2887,3016,2643,3981,2783,2195,1982,1754,1938,4312,2367,2378,2389,2303,2388,3116,3791,2827,2653,2473,2358,2764,2354,2595,2548,3650,3728,3367,3595,5053,8285,3756,2707,4292,3979,6238,9003,6644,4496,4411,4303,4147,3760,3347,3653,4686,4296,4649,4594,4386,4074,4124,4829,3250,2877,2740,2613,3492,3301,4680,6346,6996,5556,7318,13106,8320,5823,4529,4447,5823,6394,6160,5953,5415,4460,4143,4504,4066,3544,3396,3078,3905,3796,3517,3045,3122,3254,3395,4133,4167,3693,3476,3544,4264,3721,3520,3709,3290,2900,3050,3945,3413,3380,3735,3665],"flat_reference_value":17097.33575014766,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[7200.0,6700.0,6900.0,6500.0,6600.0,6900.0,7500.0,7700.0,7100.0,7000.0,6900.0,7500.0,7900.0,7200.0,7400.0,7100.0,7300.0,7500.0,8100.0,8200.0,7600.0,7500.0,7300.0,8000.0,8500.0,7700.0,8000.0,7600.0,7800.0,8200.0,8900.0,9200.0,8700.0,8400.0,8000.0,8600.0,9100.0,8300.0,8600.0,8200.0,8500.0,8800.0,9400.0,10300.0,11500.0,16700.0,12500.0,11300.0,11200.0,10300.0,12200.0,15100.0,13900.0,12500.0,12300.0,12000.0,10800.0,10600.0,10300.0,11100.0,11700.0,10500.0,10800.0,10400.0,10700.0,11200.0,12100.0,12400.0,11300.0,11100.0,10800.0,11800.0,12500.0,11500.0,12100.0,13700.0,14300.0,13900.0,15500.0,19000.0,15500.0,14100.0,13200.0,13900.0,15000.0,13200.0,13500.0,12700.0,13000.0,13300.0,14300.0,17000.0,13400.0,12800.0,12100.0,13000.0,13700.0,12100.0,12400.0,11700.0,11900.0,12400.0,13300.0,13200.0,12000.0,11800.0,11300.0,12300.0,13000.0,11500.0,11900.0,11200.0,11500.0,12000.0,12800.0,12700.0,11600.0,11400.0,11000.0,12000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[6800.0,6900.0,8600.0,7900.0,6500.0,6600.0,7100.0,7000.0,5900.0,5700.0,5600.0,6100.0,6700.0,5900.0,6200.0,7300.0,7600.0,7800.0,7200.0,6900.0,5800.0,5600.0,5500.0,5900.0,7100.0,6000.0,6200.0,5900.0,5800.0,6100.0,6800.0,7700.0,7500.0,7200.0,6000.0,6300.0,6800.0,5900.0,6100.0,5800.0,5900.0,6200.0,6900.0,7800.0,9800.0,14600.0,9400.0,7600.0,7500.0,7300.0,9600.0,11200.0,10400.0,9100.0,8800.0,8500.0,7400.0,7100.0,7000.0,7400.0,7900.0,6900.0,7100.0,6800.0,6900.0,7100.0,7600.0,7500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6300.0,6800.0,7300.0,6500.0,7000.0,8600.0,9500.0,8900.0,11400.0,14800.0,11900.0,9200.0,8100.0,8000.0,8200.0,9100.0,7600.0,7000.0,6900.0,7100.0,7600.0,9800.0,6800.0,6300.0,6000.0,6300.0,6700.0,5900.0,6100.0,5700.0,5800.0,6000.0,6400.0,6300.0,5500.0,5300.0,5100.0,5500.0,5800.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,5300.0,5700.0,5600.0,4900.0,4800.0,4600.0,5000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[3950.0,4420.0,4210.0,3890.0,3610.0,3480.0,3720.0,3590.0,3410.0,3330.0,3260.0,3680.0,3920.0,3540.0,3410.0,3880.0,3690.0,3520.0,3460.0,3390.0,3150.0,3220.0,3380.0,3710.0,3840.0,3350.0,3510.0,3290.0,3180.0,3320.0,3640.0,4120.0,4290.0,3960.0,3580.0,3910.0,4250.0,3760.0,3820.0,3610.0,3450.0,3380.0,3560.0,3940.0,4410.0,6340.0,5120.0,4790.0,4860.0,4980.0,6120.0,7450.0,6890.0,5580.0,5210.0,4940.0,4620.0,4510.0,4680.0,5150.0,5290.0,4620.0,4480.0,4210.0,4150.0,3980.0,4120.0,4350.0,4110.0,4040.0,4280.0,4670.0,4950.0,4580.0,5120.0,6840.0,7420.0,7180.0,8690.0,9410.0,6550.0,5320.0,4910.0,5180.0,5420.0,4760.0,4610.0,4390.0,4280.0,4150.0,4470.0,16820.0,6740.0,4890.0,4510.0,4690.0,4830.0,4250.0,4190.0,3920.0,3810.0,3740.0,3950.0,4020.0,3780.0,3690.0,3840.0,4150.0,4320.0,3850.0,3790.0,3610.0,3520.0,3440.0,3620.0,3710.0,3540.0,3480.0,3590.0,3880.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[7200.0,6900.0,6800.0,6400.0,6000.0,5600.0,5800.0,5700.0,5300.0,5400.0,5500.0,6000.0,6300.0,5800.0,5700.0,5900.0,5600.0,5300.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,5000.0,5000.0,5400.0,5800.0,5200.0,5100.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4900.0,5300.0,4800.0,4800.0,4600.0,4500.0,4300.0,4300.0,4500.0,4800.0,6500.0,5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,4900.0,5600.0,6800.0,6200.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,4600.0,4600.0,4700.0,4900.0,5100.0,4600.0,4600.0,4400.0,4300.0,4100.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4400.0,4100.0,4200.0,4900.0,4800.0,4500.0,4900.0,5600.0,4700.0,4200.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3400.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2800.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[5600.0,5200.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4700.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4800.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4200.0,4200.0,4100.0,4400.0,4700.0,4200.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4300.0,4600.0,4100.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,4300.0,4600.0,4800.0,7200.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,5800.0,7000.0,6600.0,5600.0,5400.0,5200.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4900.0,5200.0,4600.0,4600.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4100.0,4100.0,4100.0,4400.0,4800.0,4500.0,4600.0,5600.0,5800.0,5200.0,6200.0,7200.0,5600.0,4900.0,4500.0,4600.0,4800.0,4300.0,4300.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,3600.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[6000.0,5400.0,5800.0,6300.0,5600.0,5200.0,5400.0,5700.0,5300.0,6100.0,5200.0,5600.0,5400.0,4900.0,5200.0,5600.0,5100.0,4800.0,4900.0,5100.0,4800.0,5400.0,4700.0,5000.0,9800.0,6600.0,6200.0,6400.0,5800.0,5500.0,5700.0,5900.0,5500.0,6200.0,5400.0,6100.0,6000.0,5500.0,5900.0,7600.0,6300.0,5800.0,6000.0,6200.0,7000.0,45000.0,14000.0,9500.0,8000.0,7200.0,8800.0,9800.0,8500.0,7300.0,7100.0,7500.0,6800.0,7300.0,6600.0,7300.0,6800.0,6200.0,6600.0,7000.0,6400.0,6100.0,8200.0,7400.0,6600.0,7000.0,6300.0,7000.0,6700.0,6100.0,6400.0,7400.0,7100.0,6900.0,7200.0,8800.0,7200.0,7400.0,6700.0,7400.0,7400.0,6100.0,6400.0,6700.0,6400.0,6100.0,6400.0,12000.0,7700.0,7300.0,6700.0,7300.0,6500.0,5900.0,6100.0,6800.0,5900.0,5700.0,5900.0,6200.0,5800.0,6000.0,5600.0,6200.0,5900.0,5400.0,5700.0,5900.0,5500.0,5300.0,5500.0,5800.0,5400.0,6000.0,6400.0,6100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3650.0,3520.0,3380.0,3240.0,3110.0,2950.0,3080.0,3150.0,3300.0,3590.0,3420.0,2980.0,3320.0,2980.0,3050.0,3420.0,2950.0,2720.0,2850.0,2900.0,3080.0,3350.0,3180.0,2750.0,3550.0,3050.0,3120.0,2980.0,2850.0,2700.0,2850.0,3650.0,3200.0,3400.0,3250.0,2800.0,3800.0,3450.0,3600.0,3500.0,3350.0,3200.0,3450.0,3600.0,3950.0,7850.0,5420.0,4380.0,4100.0,3950.0,5350.0,6320.0,5840.0,4920.0,4350.0,4180.0,4250.0,4520.0,4300.0,3750.0,4180.0,3750.0,3900.0,3750.0,3600.0,3420.0,3580.0,3700.0,3880.0,4120.0,3950.0,3400.0,3850.0,3500.0,3650.0,4620.0,4950.0,5120.0,5780.0,6540.0,4820.0,3980.0,3750.0,3280.0,3850.0,3350.0,3480.0,3320.0,3180.0,3020.0,3150.0,4520.0,3580.0,3750.0,3550.0,3050.0,3450.0,3080.0,3220.0,3100.0,2950.0,2780.0,2920.0,3000.0,3180.0,3420.0,3250.0,2820.0,3220.0,2850.0,2980.0,2850.0,2720.0,2580.0,2720.0,2800.0,2950.0,3150.0,2980.0,2620.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[4150.0,4980.0,5120.0,4760.0,3980.0,3860.0,4120.0,4240.0,3900.0,3780.0,3620.0,3950.0,3880.0,4610.0,4720.0,4390.0,3720.0,3680.0,3940.0,4020.0,3610.0,3520.0,3390.0,3720.0,3640.0,3700.0,3820.0,4680.0,4850.0,4310.0,3820.0,4620.0,4980.0,4710.0,3760.0,3900.0,3820.0,3760.0,3900.0,3840.0,3960.0,4120.0,4280.0,4210.0,4620.0,7480.0,5120.0,4240.0,4180.0,4920.0,5640.0,5380.0,5120.0,5240.0,5310.0,5180.0,4860.0,4720.0,4590.0,4980.0,4620.0,4280.0,4390.0,4510.0,4240.0,4420.0,4680.0,4510.0,4290.0,4120.0,3980.0,4320.0,4210.0,4340.0,4680.0,6420.0,7180.0,7460.0,7920.0,8640.0,6180.0,5020.0,4620.0,4780.0,4320.0,3960.0,3840.0,3720.0,3580.0,3460.0,3320.0,3180.0,3620.0,3240.0,3060.0,3180.0,3020.0,2860.0,2780.0,2690.0,2580.0,2520.0,2610.0,2540.0,2420.0,2380.0,2290.0,2460.0,2340.0,2210.0,2150.0,2080.0,1990.0,1940.0,2020.0,1960.0,1880.0,1840.0,1790.0,1920.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2200.0,2600.0,2300.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,4500.0,4000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,3500.0,4500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,4000.0,4200.0,3300.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,2600.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2500.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0],"meta/muse-ember":[810.0,790.0,830.0,860.0,780.0,830.0,850.0,820.0,750.0,740.0,680.0,640.0,770.0,740.0,750.0,800.0,770.0,800.0,810.0,780.0,710.0,700.0,650.0,610.0,800.0,690.0,710.0,750.0,700.0,730.0,750.0,780.0,730.0,670.0,620.0,580.0,720.0,670.0,680.0,730.0,660.0,700.0,720.0,700.0,640.0,820.0,720.0,560.0,780.0,740.0,950.0,1020.0,920.0,850.0,800.0,770.0,690.0,710.0,660.0,620.0,730.0,680.0,700.0,740.0,670.0,720.0,800.0,770.0,650.0,660.0,610.0,570.0,740.0,700.0,730.0,800.0,790.0,740.0,760.0,920.0,800.0,670.0,620.0,580.0,880.0,730.0,780.0,810.0,760.0,790.0,860.0,1080.0,880.0,700.0,660.0,610.0,700.0,660.0,680.0,720.0,650.0,690.0,710.0,700.0,630.0,640.0,590.0,550.0,670.0,630.0,650.0,690.0,620.0,660.0,680.0,660.0,590.0,600.0,710.0,640.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[9600.0,10400.0,11900.0,12100.0,11600.0,10700.0,10500.0,10900.0,8900.0,9600.0,8700.0,10300.0,10500.0,11600.0,13000.0,13400.0,12700.0,11900.0,11400.0,11800.0,9900.0,10400.0,9700.0,11200.0,12600.0,13100.0,14800.0,15200.0,14400.0,13500.0,13000.0,13600.0,11200.0,11900.0,11000.0,12800.0,13800.0,15200.0,17100.0,17700.0,16700.0,15700.0,15100.0,15600.0,13000.0,40000.0,20400.0,18500.0,18300.0,18400.0,25800.0,39500.0,32200.0,24600.0,20400.0,18900.0,15800.0,16600.0,15400.0,17900.0,18100.0,20000.0,22400.0,23200.0,21900.0,20500.0,19800.0,20500.0,17100.0,18000.0,16700.0,19400.0,21900.0,24200.0,27100.0,37900.0,34400.0,24800.0,35900.0,57100.0,32100.0,28400.0,22700.0,24900.0,26700.0,26000.0,28600.0,27600.0,27500.0,28100.0,27000.0,27600.0,26900.0,27200.0,22900.0,26500.0,23800.0,25000.0,27500.0,26500.0,26500.0,27000.0,26000.0,26500.0,22500.0,23800.0,22000.0,25500.0,21400.0,22500.0,24800.0,23900.0,23800.0,24300.0,23400.0,23900.0,17200.0,18200.0,16800.0,19500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2250.0,2350.0,2550.0,4300.0,2650.0,2300.0,2250.0,2300.0,2500.0,2750.0,2600.0,2400.0,2350.0,2500.0,2700.0,4500.0,2800.0,2450.0,2350.0,2450.0,2650.0,2900.0,2750.0,2550.0,2700.0,2850.0,3050.0,4850.0,3000.0,2600.0,2550.0,2600.0,2800.0,3150.0,2950.0,2750.0,2700.0,2850.0,3250.0,5150.0,3200.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,3500.0,3150.0,2950.0,3400.0,3600.0,4800.0,8000.0,6000.0,4800.0,4200.0,4300.0,4100.0,4250.0,4000.0,3900.0,3750.0,4550.0,4350.0,7100.0,4450.0,3850.0,3700.0,3850.0,4150.0,4600.0,4400.0,4050.0,3950.0,4200.0,4550.0,7600.0,4700.0,4050.0,3950.0,4050.0,4350.0,4900.0,4650.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4750.0,8000.0,4950.0,4300.0,4150.0,4300.0,4600.0,5100.0,4850.0,4500.0,4450.0,4650.0,5000.0,8500.0,5250.0,4550.0,4400.0,4550.0,4900.0,5400.0,5150.0,4800.0,4600.0,4850.0,5200.0,8900.0,5450.0,4750.0,4600.0,4750.0,5100.0,5600.0,5350.0,4950.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1250.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1150.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,1100.0,900.0,1300.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,1200.0,1400.0,1300.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,1050.0,900.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,850.0,800.0,800.0,780.0,780.0,750.0,750.0,750.0,750.0,750.0,750.0,770.0,770.0,730.0,720.0,700.0,700.0,680.0,680.0,680.0,670.0,680.0,680.0,700.0,700.0,660.0,650.0,650.0,640.0,620.0,620.0,630.0,620.0,620.0,620.0,640.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[4200.0,3600.0,4500.0,4100.0,5200.0,5800.0,6100.0,5600.0,5000.0,5300.0,4800.0,5700.0,5100.0,4500.0,5400.0,4900.0,6000.0,6400.0,6900.0,6300.0,5900.0,6300.0,5800.0,6900.0,5400.0,4700.0,5700.0,5100.0,6100.0,6500.0,7100.0,6600.0,6100.0,6600.0,6000.0,7300.0,5700.0,5000.0,5800.0,5200.0,6000.0,6300.0,6800.0,6200.0,5900.0,7200.0,58000.0,31000.0,8800.0,6600.0,11800.0,12600.0,10400.0,9600.0,10300.0,9500.0,9100.0,9800.0,11200.0,12500.0,7900.0,7200.0,7800.0,7300.0,8200.0,8700.0,9400.0,8800.0,8300.0,8900.0,8400.0,9800.0,7600.0,7000.0,8100.0,7900.0,9300.0,16500.0,128000.0,83000.0,57000.0,51000.0,48500.0,64000.0,38000.0,31000.0,28500.0,26000.0,24500.0,24000.0,36500.0,31000.0,28000.0,26500.0,25000.0,29500.0,17500.0,15000.0,16200.0,14800.0,16800.0,17800.0,20200.0,18900.0,18200.0,19400.0,18500.0,21600.0,12800.0,11200.0,12100.0,11400.0,12700.0,13500.0,15200.0,14100.0,13600.0,14500.0,13700.0,15800.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[180.0,210.0,190.0,175.0,185.0,170.0,200.0,190.0,185.0,210.0,200.0,225.0,190.0,200.0,220.0,260.0,290.0,250.0,230.0,215.0,210.0,220.0,205.0,230.0,220.0,210.0,225.0,230.0,220.0,240.0,260.0,320.0,300.0,280.0,250.0,260.0,220.0,220.0,230.0,240.0,250.0,260.0,240.0,260.0,310.0,650.0,380.0,300.0,310.0,400.0,390.0,450.0,420.0,400.0,380.0,370.0,350.0,340.0,360.0,390.0,330.0,340.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,350.0,340.0,360.0,400.0,380.0,420.0,430.0,480.0,550.0,650.0,580.0,450.0,410.0,390.0,420.0,390.0,370.0,380.0,370.0,360.0,370.0,390.0,650.0,440.0,400.0,380.0,390.0,360.0,350.0,370.0,360.0,350.0,370.0,390.0,410.0,380.0,370.0,350.0,370.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,340.0,360.0,380.0,350.0,340.0,320.0,350.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1155.0,1100.0,1122.0,1078.0,1067.0,1023.0,990.0,1012.0,1100.0,1133.0,1122.0,1078.0,998.0,950.0,969.0,931.0,922.0,884.0,855.0,874.0,950.0,979.0,969.0,931.0,893.0,850.0,867.0,833.0,825.0,791.0,765.0,782.0,850.0,876.0,867.0,833.0,840.0,800.0,816.0,784.0,776.0,744.0,720.0,736.0,800.0,1000.0,880.0,784.0,945.0,900.0,918.0,1000.0,990.0,900.0,810.0,828.0,900.0,927.0,918.0,882.0,788.0,750.0,765.0,735.0,728.0,698.0,675.0,690.0,750.0,773.0,765.0,735.0,683.0,650.0,663.0,637.0,631.0,605.0,585.0,598.0,650.0,670.0,663.0,637.0,630.0,600.0,612.0,588.0,582.0,558.0,540.0,552.0,600.0,618.0,612.0,588.0,588.0,560.0,571.0,549.0,543.0,521.0,504.0,515.0,560.0,577.0,571.0,549.0,546.0,520.0,530.0,510.0,504.0,484.0,468.0,478.0,520.0,536.0,530.0,510.0]}},{"title":"Hewlett-Packard","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Hewlett-Packard\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[109205,109478,101472,99595,93076,87570,89648,97760,107000,113067,99229,89150,97737,92060,98833,85848,85504,78260,86289,89864,85334,87579,88698,70729,76186,70581,88270,86467,85932,89740,97442,106605,89866,100355,95186,80484,85296,76405,76961,69484,72063,71006,71913,77157,78584,91892,90792,69996,76283,78417,73749,84616,90177,115557,103226,96358,89643,88497,81913,111132,81841,74442,81223,71117,77717,68389,77800,68596,71845,71921,64697,59447,64466,58873,62036,62995,54722,51784,53583,57397,62751,62445,62697,49313,54574,57189,61336,51069,55883,52717,55801,64590,61043,69840,69792,64143,78769,66209,67449,65246,61466,52602,50893,97629,67976,62619,59775,53542,53785,50320,49423,44895,42686,36668,39626,39759,40112,40352,40922,40057],"flat_reference_value":16838.27722285405,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[85000.0,78000.0,82000.0,77000.0,75000.0,72000.0,69000.0,71000.0,76000.0,79000.0,78000.0,68000.0,74000.0,67000.0,72000.0,68000.0,71000.0,67000.0,63000.0,65000.0,69000.0,71000.0,76000.0,62000.0,68000.0,61000.0,66000.0,63000.0,64000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,63000.0,66000.0,63000.0,55000.0,62000.0,56000.0,60000.0,58000.0,59000.0,56000.0,54000.0,56000.0,59000.0,60000.0,75000.0,56000.0,62000.0,59000.0,59000.0,52000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0,51000.0,55000.0,57000.0,54000.0,48000.0,54000.0,49000.0,53000.0,51000.0,50000.0,47000.0,45000.0,47000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,44000.0,52000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,47000.0,45000.0,43000.0,44000.0,47000.0,49000.0,47000.0,41000.0,47000.0,43000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,46000.0,44000.0,39000.0,45000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,48000.0,43000.0,44000.0,42000.0,37000.0,42000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,38000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,35000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[114200.0,108500.0,109800.0,104300.0,101600.0,91400.0,88900.0,90200.0,96700.0,101200.0,99400.0,87600.0,95800.0,93400.0,98900.0,94100.0,92500.0,83200.0,81500.0,83900.0,89400.0,94600.0,103800.0,82400.0,89700.0,87300.0,91800.0,88500.0,86100.0,77400.0,76200.0,78500.0,83600.0,88900.0,86700.0,76800.0,84500.0,82100.0,87400.0,84900.0,82800.0,73900.0,74600.0,76100.0,81300.0,86400.0,97200.0,78500.0,85300.0,86900.0,84200.0,81600.0,79800.0,73400.0,72800.0,74500.0,79200.0,82700.0,81400.0,106400.0,82300.0,78600.0,82900.0,79500.0,77100.0,69800.0,68900.0,70600.0,74800.0,78200.0,76900.0,68400.0,74600.0,72300.0,76800.0,108500.0,79400.0,68200.0,66900.0,68700.0,72400.0,75600.0,76200.0,65800.0,71400.0,68500.0,72900.0,69200.0,73800.0,63400.0,62100.0,63900.0,67200.0,70500.0,68800.0,60400.0,71200.0,64800.0,67500.0,65100.0,64300.0,71600.0,59800.0,96400.0,67900.0,65400.0,63200.0,56800.0,61500.0,58900.0,62400.0,60200.0,58700.0,53400.0,52600.0,54100.0,57800.0,60500.0,58900.0,52300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[138000.0,142000.0,146000.0,139000.0,128000.0,112000.0,105000.0,114000.0,131000.0,144000.0,137000.0,111000.0,126000.0,129000.0,138000.0,127000.0,121000.0,103000.0,98000.0,107000.0,122000.0,133000.0,129000.0,102000.0,118000.0,121000.0,128000.0,122000.0,114000.0,97000.0,92000.0,101000.0,116000.0,124000.0,119000.0,95000.0,109000.0,112000.0,118000.0,111000.0,104000.0,89000.0,85000.0,93000.0,106000.0,113000.0,121000.0,96000.0,105000.0,108000.0,102000.0,98000.0,92000.0,81000.0,79000.0,84000.0,97000.0,103000.0,99000.0,82000.0,93000.0,96000.0,102000.0,94000.0,87000.0,76000.0,73000.0,79000.0,90000.0,96000.0,92000.0,76000.0,86000.0,88000.0,94000.0,87000.0,80000.0,70000.0,67000.0,74000.0,84000.0,89000.0,85000.0,71000.0,81000.0,83000.0,89000.0,82000.0,76000.0,66000.0,63000.0,70000.0,79000.0,85000.0,81000.0,67000.0,77000.0,79000.0,84000.0,78000.0,73000.0,75000.0,64000.0,118000.0,83000.0,81000.0,77000.0,64000.0,73000.0,75000.0,80000.0,74000.0,69000.0,61000.0,58000.0,64000.0,72000.0,76000.0,73000.0,61000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[95000.0,92000.0,96000.0,90000.0,86000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,85000.0,88000.0,86000.0,76000.0,84000.0,82000.0,86000.0,80000.0,78000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,76000.0,79000.0,77000.0,68000.0,75000.0,73000.0,77000.0,72000.0,70000.0,65000.0,63000.0,65000.0,68000.0,71000.0,69000.0,61000.0,67000.0,65000.0,68000.0,64000.0,62000.0,57000.0,56000.0,57000.0,60000.0,63000.0,61000.0,54000.0,60000.0,58000.0,62000.0,64000.0,61000.0,56000.0,54000.0,54000.0,56000.0,57000.0,55000.0,50000.0,55000.0,53000.0,56000.0,53000.0,51000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,49000.0,51000.0,50000.0,45000.0,50000.0,48000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,47000.0,46000.0,41000.0,46000.0,44000.0,46000.0,43000.0,42000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,42000.0,38000.0,43000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,39000.0,41000.0,40000.0,36000.0,41000.0,39000.0,41000.0,39000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,35000.0,37000.0,39000.0,38000.0,34000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[178000.0,172000.0,175000.0,168000.0,166000.0,155000.0,150000.0,155000.0,162000.0,165000.0,163000.0,150000.0,162000.0,153000.0,160000.0,150000.0,150000.0,140000.0,137000.0,140000.0,145000.0,148000.0,146000.0,134000.0,146000.0,136000.0,140000.0,133000.0,132000.0,124000.0,122000.0,125000.0,128000.0,131000.0,128000.0,118000.0,128000.0,119000.0,123000.0,117000.0,116000.0,108000.0,109000.0,112000.0,114000.0,117000.0,126000.0,110000.0,116000.0,109000.0,108000.0,112000.0,113000.0,105000.0,104000.0,105000.0,107000.0,108000.0,105000.0,100000.0,108000.0,100000.0,104000.0,98000.0,97000.0,92000.0,91000.0,93000.0,95000.0,97000.0,95000.0,89000.0,96000.0,90000.0,94000.0,89000.0,89000.0,84000.0,83000.0,85000.0,87000.0,89000.0,88000.0,82000.0,90000.0,84000.0,88000.0,83000.0,84000.0,79000.0,79000.0,81000.0,82000.0,84000.0,82000.0,77000.0,85000.0,80000.0,82000.0,78000.0,79000.0,74000.0,75000.0,77000.0,78000.0,80000.0,78000.0,73000.0,80000.0,74000.0,77000.0,74000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,72000.0,73000.0,74000.0,72000.0,68000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[61900.0,57600.0,59800.0,55100.0,53700.0,47900.0,44800.0,46500.0,55900.0,53800.0,56300.0,47600.0,57200.0,54100.0,55700.0,52300.0,50400.0,44800.0,42900.0,43700.0,52100.0,49900.0,50800.0,43500.0,52800.0,49700.0,52500.0,49300.0,47900.0,42600.0,40900.0,41800.0,48900.0,46700.0,47900.0,40700.0,49700.0,46800.0,48700.0,45800.0,44600.0,39900.0,38000.0,38700.0,45700.0,44500.0,47600.0,41900.0,46700.0,45500.0,54900.0,51800.0,45700.0,40600.0,38700.0,39600.0,44900.0,43700.0,44800.0,38900.0,43600.0,41800.0,43700.0,40700.0,39800.0,35700.0,33800.0,34600.0,40700.0,39600.0,40600.0,34700.0,39600.0,37700.0,39600.0,52300.0,43700.0,37800.0,35700.0,35900.0,41800.0,39700.0,39600.0,33800.0,37700.0,35800.0,37600.0,35700.0,34800.0,31100.0,29900.0,30300.0,35800.0,34200.0,33900.0,29200.0,32900.0,31000.0,33700.0,36800.0,36100.0,39900.0,36200.0,45400.0,38300.0,34900.0,33800.0,29700.0,32600.0,30700.0,32800.0,30900.0,30100.0,27300.0,26100.0,26900.0,31000.0,29800.0,32200.0,27100.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[35612.0,29840.0,34210.0,32755.0,32980.0,30125.0,29680.0,31240.0,33310.0,35480.0,32890.0,31520.0,32450.0,26120.0,31980.0,29540.0,30210.0,27580.0,27230.0,28590.0,30520.0,32680.0,29970.0,28930.0,29510.0,23780.0,28460.0,27230.0,27640.0,25120.0,24790.0,25980.0,27810.0,29640.0,27280.0,26210.0,27280.0,21890.0,26740.0,24680.0,25320.0,23150.0,22840.0,23960.0,25630.0,26890.0,38650.0,32840.0,30620.0,25680.0,28930.0,27150.0,23890.0,21760.0,21480.0,22510.0,24120.0,25640.0,23620.0,22740.0,23680.0,18970.0,23210.0,21380.0,22040.0,20130.0,19760.0,20820.0,22290.0,23710.0,21840.0,20960.0,21720.0,17380.0,21290.0,19560.0,20210.0,18450.0,18120.0,19080.0,20430.0,21780.0,19940.0,19180.0,20410.0,16320.0,20020.0,18380.0,18960.0,17340.0,17020.0,17930.0,19210.0,20460.0,18740.0,18010.0,23480.0,17420.0,19050.0,17490.0,18040.0,16510.0,16230.0,17080.0,18290.0,19480.0,17820.0,17140.0,18460.0,14720.0,18110.0,16580.0,17120.0,15680.0,18890.0,16210.0,17380.0,18490.0,16920.0,16280.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[97000.0,92000.0,93000.0,90000.0,88000.0,83000.0,79000.0,81000.0,90000.0,93000.0,95000.0,86000.0,86000.0,82000.0,82000.0,84000.0,78000.0,74000.0,70000.0,72000.0,80000.0,82000.0,84000.0,76000.0,79000.0,74000.0,75000.0,73000.0,72000.0,67000.0,64000.0,66000.0,73000.0,75000.0,77000.0,69000.0,76000.0,71000.0,72000.0,70000.0,69000.0,64000.0,62000.0,68000.0,70000.0,72000.0,80000.0,70000.0,78000.0,85000.0,95000.0,78000.0,72000.0,67000.0,64000.0,66000.0,72000.0,74000.0,78000.0,69000.0,69000.0,65000.0,66000.0,64000.0,63000.0,59000.0,56000.0,58000.0,64000.0,66000.0,67000.0,61000.0,66000.0,62000.0,67000.0,61000.0,60000.0,57000.0,54000.0,57000.0,61000.0,63000.0,68000.0,58000.0,63000.0,59000.0,62000.0,58000.0,57000.0,53000.0,51000.0,52000.0,58000.0,60000.0,61000.0,55000.0,62000.0,57000.0,57000.0,55000.0,54000.0,51000.0,48000.0,50000.0,55000.0,57000.0,59000.0,53000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,52000.0,51000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,52000.0,54000.0,55000.0,50000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[155000.0,140000.0,145000.0,142000.0,139000.0,134000.0,128000.0,131000.0,145000.0,148000.0,152000.0,142000.0,130000.0,118000.0,122000.0,120000.0,118000.0,113000.0,108000.0,110000.0,122000.0,124000.0,128000.0,120000.0,114000.0,104000.0,108000.0,106000.0,104000.0,100000.0,96000.0,98000.0,108000.0,110000.0,114000.0,106000.0,110000.0,100000.0,104000.0,102000.0,100000.0,96000.0,92000.0,94000.0,104000.0,110000.0,150000.0,130000.0,130000.0,105000.0,115000.0,112000.0,105000.0,101000.0,97000.0,99000.0,109000.0,111000.0,114000.0,107000.0,103000.0,94000.0,98000.0,96000.0,94000.0,90000.0,86000.0,88000.0,98000.0,100000.0,102000.0,96000.0,109000.0,99000.0,103000.0,150000.0,115000.0,95000.0,91000.0,93000.0,103000.0,105000.0,108000.0,101000.0,98000.0,89000.0,93000.0,91000.0,89000.0,85000.0,82000.0,84000.0,93000.0,94000.0,97000.0,91000.0,128000.0,99000.0,98000.0,96000.0,94000.0,90000.0,86000.0,88000.0,98000.0,100000.0,102000.0,96000.0,94000.0,85000.0,89000.0,87000.0,85000.0,81000.0,78000.0,79000.0,89000.0,90000.0,93000.0,87000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[45200.0,41800.0,43500.0,41200.0,39800.0,36500.0,34800.0,37200.0,42800.0,39500.0,37800.0,33200.0,37200.0,31800.0,34100.0,32900.0,32400.0,29800.0,28300.0,30600.0,40200.0,34800.0,33100.0,29800.0,35900.0,29600.0,31800.0,30900.0,30200.0,27900.0,26500.0,28900.0,35200.0,32400.0,30600.0,27400.0,33200.0,28400.0,30800.0,35600.0,29500.0,29100.0,26200.0,29600.0,33800.0,31800.0,29400.0,26500.0,32800.0,34200.0,38600.0,38400.0,30800.0,28500.0,27200.0,31200.0,36500.0,33200.0,31900.0,28100.0,32800.0,28100.0,30000.0,29400.0,28900.0,26800.0,25400.0,27600.0,33100.0,30600.0,29800.0,26200.0,29800.0,25800.0,31200.0,26500.0,26100.0,24100.0,22800.0,24800.0,30200.0,27800.0,26200.0,23500.0,29100.0,26800.0,26300.0,24700.0,24300.0,25900.0,23500.0,23100.0,28100.0,25700.0,24200.0,25600.0,27200.0,25900.0,24000.0,23200.0,22900.0,21100.0,19900.0,32800.0,29800.0,24300.0,22900.0,20400.0,24800.0,23100.0,22500.0,25800.0,21400.0,19700.0,21100.0,20400.0,24900.0,22800.0,21400.0,19300.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[455000.0,372000.0,396000.0,379000.0,371000.0,365000.0,341000.0,354000.0,392000.0,400000.0,411000.0,348000.0,389000.0,353000.0,375000.0,359000.0,352000.0,346000.0,323000.0,335000.0,371000.0,398000.0,449000.0,356000.0,368000.0,333000.0,354000.0,339000.0,332000.0,326000.0,305000.0,316000.0,351000.0,358000.0,368000.0,312000.0,357000.0,323000.0,344000.0,329000.0,322000.0,317000.0,296000.0,307000.0,340000.0,347000.0,476000.0,374000.0,429000.0,353000.0,444000.0,420000.0,388000.0,346000.0,323000.0,335000.0,372000.0,379000.0,390000.0,330000.0,379000.0,343000.0,365000.0,349000.0,342000.0,336000.0,314000.0,326000.0,361000.0,368000.0,379000.0,321000.0,357000.0,323000.0,433000.0,375000.0,323000.0,317000.0,296000.0,307000.0,340000.0,347000.0,357000.0,303000.0,325000.0,294000.0,313000.0,299000.0,293000.0,288000.0,269000.0,280000.0,310000.0,316000.0,325000.0,275000.0,484000.0,404000.0,362000.0,299000.0,293000.0,288000.0,269000.0,280000.0,310000.0,316000.0,325000.0,275000.0,402000.0,345000.0,281000.0,269000.0,264000.0,259000.0,242000.0,251000.0,278000.0,284000.0,292000.0,247000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[91000.0,72500.0,74000.0,76000.0,79000.0,71500.0,69000.0,83000.0,87000.0,79000.0,88000.0,73500.0,85500.0,72000.0,73000.0,74500.0,77000.0,69500.0,67500.0,79000.0,82500.0,75500.0,83500.0,68500.0,80500.0,69000.0,70000.0,71500.0,74000.0,67000.0,65000.0,76500.0,79500.0,72500.0,79500.0,65500.0,77000.0,66500.0,67500.0,68500.0,70500.0,64500.0,62500.0,72500.0,76000.0,69500.0,76500.0,63500.0,74500.0,67500.0,75500.0,81500.0,83000.0,74500.0,71500.0,80000.0,85000.0,78500.0,86000.0,70500.0,82500.0,71000.0,72000.0,76000.0,78000.0,70500.0,68500.0,77000.0,81000.0,75500.0,82500.0,68000.0,76500.0,66000.0,67000.0,69000.0,71500.0,65000.0,63000.0,71500.0,75500.0,69500.0,76500.0,63000.0,74000.0,64500.0,65500.0,67000.0,81000.0,63500.0,61500.0,69500.0,74000.0,68500.0,75000.0,62500.0,73000.0,64000.0,65000.0,66500.0,68000.0,62000.0,60000.0,68500.0,73000.0,67500.0,75000.0,62000.0,76000.0,65500.0,66500.0,68000.0,70500.0,64000.0,62000.0,70500.0,75000.0,69500.0,77000.0,64000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[7200.0,6900.0,6800.0,6400.0,6300.0,5800.0,5500.0,5800.0,6300.0,6400.0,6200.0,5500.0,6000.0,6000.0,6100.0,5600.0,5700.0,5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,5700.0,5800.0,5700.0,5000.0,5500.0,5500.0,5600.0,5300.0,5300.0,4800.0,4700.0,4900.0,5300.0,5400.0,5300.0,4700.0,5200.0,5200.0,5300.0,5000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4400.0,4600.0,5000.0,5100.0,5600.0,5000.0,5500.0,6000.0,5600.0,5300.0,5000.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,5000.0,5100.0,5000.0,4500.0,4900.0,5000.0,5100.0,4800.0,4700.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4800.0,4900.0,4800.0,4300.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,4500.0,4500.0,4100.0,4000.0,4200.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4000.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,4200.0,4200.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,4300.0,4300.0,4200.0,3700.0,4100.0,4200.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,4000.0,3500.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3800.0,3900.0,3800.0,3400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[86000.0,80000.0,65000.0,62000.0,74000.0,60000.0,57000.0,63000.0,71000.0,110000.0,95000.0,78000.0,75000.0,67000.0,80000.0,58000.0,70000.0,55000.0,52000.0,62000.0,71000.0,118000.0,86000.0,70000.0,67000.0,58000.0,88000.0,54000.0,66000.0,53000.0,51000.0,60000.0,72000.0,115000.0,79000.0,61000.0,64000.0,52000.0,55000.0,49000.0,60000.0,48000.0,47000.0,53000.0,60000.0,78000.0,74000.0,62000.0,64000.0,55000.0,145000.0,124000.0,90000.0,60000.0,51000.0,72000.0,95000.0,115000.0,100000.0,72000.0,84000.0,68000.0,72000.0,63000.0,75000.0,67000.0,58000.0,71000.0,82000.0,105000.0,134000.0,88000.0,85000.0,68000.0,72000.0,58000.0,71000.0,61000.0,55000.0,67000.0,80000.0,127000.0,95000.0,72000.0,134000.0,83000.0,72000.0,70000.0,84000.0,70000.0,57000.0,71000.0,90000.0,132000.0,117000.0,80000.0,173000.0,96000.0,88000.0,82000.0,99000.0,81000.0,71000.0,87000.0,103000.0,122000.0,136000.0,95000.0,146000.0,90000.0,132000.0,83000.0,97000.0,75000.0,70000.0,81000.0,95000.0,118000.0,132000.0,95000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[9500.0,9000.0,9800.0,8900.0,8600.0,8500.0,9100.0,8800.0,8600.0,9200.0,9300.0,8700.0,8500.0,8200.0,8800.0,8100.0,7900.0,8000.0,8400.0,8200.0,7900.0,8400.0,8300.0,7800.0,8300.0,8000.0,8600.0,7900.0,7700.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7700.0,8200.0,8100.0,7600.0,8100.0,7800.0,8300.0,7700.0,7500.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,9200.0,13500.0,11200.0,10500.0,12500.0,14800.0,11200.0,9700.0,9300.0,9600.0,9200.0,8900.0,9500.0,9400.0,8700.0,9000.0,8600.0,9200.0,8400.0,8200.0,8300.0,8700.0,8500.0,8100.0,8600.0,8500.0,8000.0,8400.0,8100.0,8700.0,7900.0,7700.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7700.0,8100.0,8000.0,7500.0,8000.0,7700.0,8200.0,7500.0,7300.0,7400.0,7800.0,7600.0,7300.0,7700.0,7600.0,7100.0,7800.0,7500.0,8100.0,7400.0,7200.0,7300.0,7700.0,7500.0,7300.0,7900.0,7800.0,7300.0,7600.0,7300.0,7900.0,7200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7500.0,7300.0,7100.0,7600.0,7500.0,7000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[13650.0,13390.0,13650.0,13260.0,13000.0,12610.0,12220.0,12220.0,13260.0,13390.0,13130.0,12480.0,12075.0,11845.0,12075.0,11730.0,11500.0,11155.0,10810.0,10810.0,11730.0,11845.0,11615.0,11040.0,11025.0,10815.0,11025.0,10710.0,10500.0,10185.0,9870.0,9870.0,10710.0,10815.0,10605.0,10080.0,9975.0,9785.0,9975.0,9690.0,9500.0,9215.0,8930.0,8930.0,9690.0,9785.0,9595.0,9120.0,9450.0,9270.0,10200.0,9640.0,9000.0,8730.0,8460.0,8460.0,9180.0,9270.0,9090.0,8640.0,8925.0,8755.0,8925.0,8670.0,8500.0,8245.0,7990.0,7990.0,8670.0,8755.0,8585.0,8160.0,8400.0,8240.0,8400.0,8160.0,8000.0,7760.0,7520.0,7520.0,8160.0,8240.0,8080.0,7680.0,8190.0,8034.0,8190.0,7956.0,7800.0,7566.0,7332.0,7332.0,7956.0,8034.0,7878.0,7488.0,7875.0,7725.0,7875.0,7650.0,7500.0,7275.0,7050.0,7050.0,7650.0,7725.0,7575.0,7200.0,7350.0,7210.0,7350.0,7140.0,7000.0,6790.0,6580.0,6580.0,7140.0,7210.0,7070.0,6720.0]}},{"title":"Weimar","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Weimar\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[14810,14189,16028,14314,15595,13639,14015,14537,14807,18557,16130,15958,16754,15766,16926,16249,16679,13628,14252,16972,15087,15747,14583,13952,15622,14919,16961,16137,15211,17236,14870,13942,13238,14383,13998,12968,16073,14891,15498,19059,14879,13870,14291,14829,14300,15396,14704,12778,13777,13759,12887,14549,13696,12469,12564,14520,12774,14177,14043,14224,16711,13526,14426,14349,14748,12622,15249,14515,14184,14989,13725,13815,15902,14525,15546,15013,14189,14319,14350,15165,14913,15939,15984,16800,17305,15420,16716,17535,17407,16407,17421,17410,16543,16479,16283,16809,18092,17309,19887,17207,18721,18361,17455,16230,18679,16240,15987,15080,17978,19174,16594,14665,14600,11776,12939,14214,14595,17530,19113,14504],"flat_reference_value":16971.67060797945,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[22000.0,21500.0,23500.0,23000.0,22500.0,21500.0,24000.0,25000.0,23500.0,24500.0,23000.0,20500.0,22000.0,21000.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,22000.0,24500.0,25500.0,24000.0,25000.0,23500.0,21000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23500.0,23500.0,22500.0,25000.0,26000.0,24500.0,25500.0,25000.0,22000.0,35000.0,30000.0,29000.0,34000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,24500.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21500.0,21000.0,22000.0,23500.0,22500.0,24000.0,23000.0,21000.0,23500.0,22000.0,24500.0,23500.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24500.0,23500.0,25000.0,23500.0,21500.0,24000.0,23000.0,25500.0,24500.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24500.0,26000.0,24500.0,22000.0,24500.0,23000.0,25500.0,25000.0,24500.0,23500.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,26500.0,25000.0,22500.0,25000.0,23500.0,26000.0,25500.0,25000.0,24000.0,26500.0,27500.0,26000.0,27000.0,25500.0,23000.0,25500.0,24000.0,26500.0,27000.0,25500.0,24500.0,27000.0,28000.0,26500.0,27500.0,26000.0,23500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[30400.0,30100.0,31200.0,29800.0,29500.0,27600.0,28400.0,28100.0,28900.0,30800.0,33500.0,26200.0,32400.0,30600.0,32100.0,30200.0,29900.0,27800.0,28700.0,28300.0,29100.0,31400.0,31800.0,26500.0,31200.0,29400.0,31600.0,30500.0,29800.0,27400.0,28500.0,28900.0,29600.0,31900.0,34800.0,27100.0,33900.0,36200.0,35800.0,39400.0,34600.0,31500.0,32800.0,35100.0,32700.0,34200.0,33800.0,27900.0,32500.0,31400.0,28200.0,29600.0,30400.0,28100.0,28600.0,28900.0,29500.0,31800.0,33200.0,27800.0,36800.0,31900.0,32400.0,30600.0,30100.0,27900.0,28800.0,28400.0,29200.0,30900.0,31200.0,26400.0,30800.0,33100.0,33600.0,29900.0,29400.0,27800.0,28600.0,28200.0,28700.0,30400.0,30700.0,25600.0,29800.0,28300.0,29600.0,28100.0,27900.0,26100.0,27200.0,26900.0,27400.0,29100.0,31600.0,24800.0,28600.0,28900.0,29400.0,27300.0,27100.0,25800.0,26500.0,26800.0,30900.0,28900.0,30800.0,24500.0,28900.0,29600.0,28200.0,26400.0,25900.0,24400.0,25200.0,25000.0,25600.0,26800.0,27100.0,22900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[22400.0,23100.0,24500.0,23800.0,24200.0,21900.0,22600.0,23400.0,22800.0,25100.0,25800.0,19400.0,22900.0,23500.0,25300.0,24100.0,24600.0,22200.0,23000.0,23800.0,23600.0,26100.0,26700.0,20100.0,23200.0,22800.0,25900.0,24400.0,24800.0,21700.0,22900.0,24100.0,24000.0,26900.0,28300.0,21500.0,25600.0,27200.0,29800.0,33400.0,30500.0,26700.0,29400.0,32100.0,29200.0,30800.0,29500.0,23200.0,24100.0,23600.0,24900.0,25800.0,23700.0,20400.0,21200.0,22100.0,21600.0,23500.0,24200.0,18900.0,21800.0,22100.0,23900.0,23100.0,22800.0,19900.0,21300.0,22400.0,21900.0,23600.0,24500.0,18500.0,21200.0,20500.0,22700.0,21800.0,21500.0,19200.0,20400.0,21600.0,20900.0,22800.0,23400.0,17800.0,20600.0,19900.0,22100.0,21300.0,20800.0,18500.0,19700.0,20900.0,20200.0,22000.0,22600.0,17100.0,19800.0,19500.0,21500.0,20700.0,20100.0,17900.0,19200.0,20300.0,20800.0,22100.0,22300.0,16800.0,19400.0,19100.0,21100.0,20300.0,19800.0,17500.0,18900.0,19900.0,19500.0,21400.0,21800.0,16500.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[18500.0,19200.0,19800.0,19500.0,18700.0,16800.0,16200.0,16500.0,17800.0,19000.0,19300.0,16400.0,18000.0,18600.0,19100.0,18500.0,18000.0,16200.0,15700.0,15900.0,17100.0,18300.0,18600.0,15800.0,17200.0,17700.0,18200.0,17800.0,17200.0,15400.0,15000.0,15300.0,16500.0,17600.0,17900.0,15200.0,18800.0,20500.0,21000.0,23500.0,19500.0,16500.0,15800.0,17200.0,17000.0,17500.0,17300.0,14600.0,15800.0,16200.0,17400.0,18000.0,16500.0,14300.0,13800.0,14000.0,14800.0,15600.0,15800.0,13500.0,14800.0,15000.0,15400.0,14900.0,14400.0,13000.0,12600.0,12800.0,13600.0,14400.0,14600.0,12400.0,13600.0,13900.0,14300.0,13800.0,13300.0,12000.0,11600.0,11800.0,12600.0,13300.0,13500.0,11500.0,12700.0,12900.0,13300.0,12800.0,12400.0,11200.0,10800.0,11000.0,11700.0,12400.0,12500.0,10700.0,11900.0,12100.0,12400.0,12000.0,11600.0,10500.0,10100.0,10400.0,11000.0,11600.0,11700.0,10000.0,11000.0,11200.0,11500.0,11100.0,10700.0,9700.0,9400.0,9600.0,10200.0,10700.0,10800.0,9300.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[36000.0,34500.0,36000.0,35000.0,36500.0,34000.0,34500.0,35000.0,34000.0,35500.0,36500.0,32500.0,36500.0,34000.0,36000.0,34500.0,36000.0,33500.0,34000.0,34500.0,33500.0,35500.0,35500.0,32500.0,36000.0,34000.0,35500.0,34500.0,35500.0,33000.0,33500.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,37000.0,33000.0,39000.0,38500.0,38500.0,38500.0,38000.0,35500.0,36000.0,37000.0,35500.0,36000.0,35500.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30500.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30500.0,30500.0,29500.0,30500.0,30500.0,28500.0,31000.0,29000.0,30500.0,29000.0,29500.0,27500.0,28000.0,28500.0,27500.0,28500.0,28500.0,26500.0,28500.0,27000.0,28500.0,27500.0,28500.0,27000.0,27500.0,28000.0,26500.0,27500.0,27500.0,25500.0,28000.0,26500.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26500.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26500.0,24500.0,27000.0,25500.0,26500.0,26000.0,27000.0,25500.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25500.0,23500.0,26000.0,24500.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24500.0,24500.0,24500.0,23500.0,24500.0,24000.0,22500.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10000.0,9200.0,10500.0,10400.0,11000.0,11800.0,12100.0,11700.0,10500.0,10600.0,11200.0,9000.0,10500.0,9700.0,11000.0,11200.0,11600.0,12400.0,12800.0,12300.0,11800.0,11000.0,10600.0,9400.0,11000.0,10100.0,11600.0,11600.0,12100.0,13000.0,13300.0,12900.0,11600.0,11500.0,11000.0,9800.0,17000.0,18500.0,20000.0,25000.0,21500.0,22500.0,23000.0,32000.0,19000.0,16500.0,15800.0,14200.0,13000.0,11800.0,15500.0,14500.0,12800.0,12500.0,12400.0,12200.0,11400.0,11500.0,12000.0,10200.0,11500.0,10500.0,11800.0,11700.0,12300.0,13200.0,13600.0,13100.0,11800.0,11700.0,11200.0,10100.0,12200.0,11100.0,12600.0,12600.0,13200.0,14200.0,14700.0,14300.0,12700.0,12600.0,12100.0,11000.0,12800.0,11600.0,13100.0,13100.0,13700.0,15000.0,15400.0,15000.0,13300.0,13200.0,12700.0,11500.0,13300.0,12100.0,13600.0,13600.0,14100.0,16300.0,16800.0,16200.0,14200.0,13700.0,13200.0,12100.0,13800.0,12500.0,14100.0,16200.0,14800.0,15800.0,16200.0,15700.0,14100.0,13800.0,13300.0,12200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[17200.0,15300.0,17000.0,16300.0,17500.0,18000.0,19200.0,18800.0,18100.0,17400.0,19000.0,14100.0,18400.0,15600.0,16700.0,16200.0,17200.0,17700.0,18900.0,18700.0,17800.0,17200.0,16300.0,13900.0,17000.0,14900.0,16500.0,16100.0,17000.0,17500.0,18600.0,18500.0,17400.0,17000.0,21200.0,13800.0,20800.0,17700.0,19300.0,23000.0,19800.0,20300.0,21400.0,27500.0,20300.0,19800.0,19000.0,16600.0,17400.0,14600.0,22600.0,23800.0,20800.0,18800.0,18200.0,18100.0,17100.0,16600.0,16800.0,13500.0,18000.0,14400.0,16000.0,15700.0,16500.0,16900.0,18000.0,17900.0,17000.0,16500.0,15700.0,13300.0,16100.0,14100.0,15700.0,15300.0,16100.0,16600.0,17600.0,17500.0,16600.0,16100.0,15300.0,13000.0,15800.0,13800.0,15300.0,15000.0,15800.0,16200.0,17300.0,17200.0,16200.0,15800.0,15000.0,12800.0,15600.0,13700.0,15100.0,14900.0,15600.0,16000.0,17100.0,17900.0,18000.0,15600.0,14900.0,12600.0,16400.0,13500.0,15000.0,19700.0,15400.0,15900.0,16900.0,16800.0,15900.0,15400.0,14700.0,12500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[33600.0,35700.0,42000.0,44100.0,48300.0,50400.0,54600.0,52500.0,46200.0,39900.0,35700.0,35700.0,34300.0,36400.0,42800.0,45000.0,49300.0,51400.0,55700.0,53600.0,47100.0,40700.0,36400.0,36400.0,34600.0,36800.0,43300.0,45400.0,49700.0,51900.0,56200.0,54100.0,47600.0,41100.0,36800.0,36800.0,39600.0,42100.0,55500.0,61700.0,67700.0,70400.0,76100.0,73300.0,62900.0,47100.0,42100.0,42100.0,29600.0,31400.0,22900.0,21300.0,25500.0,31900.0,38400.0,39300.0,34700.0,29900.0,26700.0,28300.0,28700.0,30500.0,37900.0,39800.0,45900.0,50300.0,57100.0,54900.0,46100.0,37900.0,32300.0,32300.0,34300.0,36400.0,42800.0,45000.0,49300.0,51400.0,55700.0,53600.0,47100.0,40700.0,36400.0,36400.0,35300.0,37500.0,44100.0,46300.0,50700.0,52900.0,57300.0,55100.0,52400.0,45300.0,37500.0,37500.0,34300.0,36400.0,42800.0,45000.0,49300.0,51400.0,55700.0,60000.0,52800.0,39500.0,34200.0,33500.0,30600.0,32100.0,37900.0,39500.0,42500.0,44500.0,48100.0,46200.0,40700.0,35200.0,31500.0,31500.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[19200.0,18100.0,19800.0,18700.0,17900.0,16500.0,15800.0,16200.0,17600.0,19000.0,18400.0,15900.0,20100.0,19000.0,20700.0,19600.0,18800.0,17300.0,16600.0,17000.0,18500.0,20000.0,19300.0,16700.0,21000.0,19900.0,21600.0,20500.0,19700.0,18200.0,17400.0,17800.0,19400.0,21000.0,20300.0,17600.0,24500.0,26200.0,31500.0,42000.0,34000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,29500.0,31000.0,28000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23500.0,27000.0,26500.0,24500.0,22500.0,21500.0,22000.0,23500.0,25000.0,24000.0,21000.0,23500.0,22500.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,20500.0,19500.0,20000.0,21500.0,23000.0,22000.0,19000.0,22500.0,21500.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,19500.0,18500.0,19000.0,20500.0,22000.0,21000.0,18000.0,21500.0,20500.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,18500.0,17500.0,18000.0,19500.0,21000.0,20000.0,17000.0,20500.0,19500.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,18500.0,20000.0,19000.0,16000.0,20000.0,21500.0,22000.0,35000.0,27000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20500.0,21500.0,23000.0,22000.0,19000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[28400.0,30000.0,32900.0,36800.0,38400.0,41700.0,42300.0,42000.0,38600.0,34700.0,31800.0,26800.0,30200.0,29200.0,34700.0,35800.0,41300.0,41800.0,44600.0,42100.0,39100.0,36500.0,31300.0,28500.0,29400.0,30700.0,33700.0,37700.0,40500.0,44000.0,43300.0,44300.0,38700.0,36600.0,35200.0,28000.0,29700.0,31900.0,37800.0,47300.0,48700.0,51300.0,52100.0,56500.0,46100.0,39100.0,33900.0,28200.0,27900.0,29100.0,28400.0,24300.0,29700.0,35300.0,38200.0,38800.0,32300.0,28600.0,24500.0,19900.0,23400.0,24500.0,28300.0,31600.0,36800.0,40600.0,42700.0,41300.0,35500.0,29800.0,25100.0,21000.0,25800.0,29200.0,32700.0,35100.0,39700.0,43300.0,46000.0,44100.0,37200.0,32100.0,28300.0,23800.0,25100.0,27800.0,31400.0,31500.0,35300.0,37600.0,38800.0,37800.0,33400.0,31200.0,27500.0,23600.0,22900.0,24000.0,27400.0,28800.0,32600.0,34700.0,36200.0,34900.0,33300.0,28500.0,25100.0,21600.0,21300.0,26300.0,28500.0,27000.0,30500.0,32500.0,33600.0,32700.0,28900.0,26500.0,23300.0,20000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[34000.0,36000.0,44000.0,46000.0,47000.0,49000.0,52000.0,50000.0,44000.0,41000.0,37000.0,33000.0,35000.0,37000.0,45000.0,47000.0,48000.0,50000.0,53000.0,51000.0,45000.0,48000.0,39000.0,33000.0,36000.0,38000.0,46000.0,48000.0,49000.0,51000.0,55000.0,53000.0,47000.0,44000.0,39000.0,34000.0,44000.0,47000.0,66000.0,78000.0,62000.0,66000.0,70000.0,82000.0,62000.0,52000.0,45000.0,38000.0,44000.0,46000.0,64000.0,60000.0,54000.0,56000.0,56000.0,54000.0,50000.0,48000.0,43000.0,38000.0,46000.0,48000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,64000.0,68000.0,66000.0,58000.0,54000.0,48000.0,41000.0,44000.0,50000.0,60000.0,56000.0,58000.0,61000.0,65000.0,63000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,52000.0,54000.0,56000.0,59000.0,63000.0,61000.0,54000.0,60000.0,62000.0,36000.0,36000.0,38000.0,49000.0,51000.0,53000.0,56000.0,60000.0,60000.0,51000.0,47000.0,42000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,50000.0,62000.0,66000.0,58000.0,60000.0,57000.0,51000.0,46000.0,41000.0,34000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[18900.0,18200.0,19800.0,24300.0,22100.0,20700.0,19400.0,19000.0,21400.0,27800.0,24200.0,20100.0,19300.0,18700.0,20200.0,23600.0,22300.0,20900.0,19500.0,19200.0,25500.0,28700.0,24800.0,20700.0,19700.0,19100.0,20800.0,24000.0,22500.0,21100.0,19800.0,19400.0,22300.0,26200.0,32800.0,21300.0,33500.0,26900.0,36800.0,42500.0,35600.0,28900.0,25700.0,25100.0,29000.0,32500.0,30600.0,24800.0,25100.0,23800.0,27600.0,26400.0,23300.0,21200.0,19900.0,20300.0,23400.0,27600.0,30200.0,22000.0,28300.0,22200.0,22800.0,26500.0,23900.0,21700.0,20100.0,20600.0,23700.0,28200.0,25700.0,21600.0,22700.0,25100.0,21900.0,25300.0,23000.0,20800.0,19500.0,20100.0,23400.0,27000.0,24600.0,21100.0,21900.0,20600.0,22200.0,25600.0,23400.0,21300.0,19800.0,20400.0,24100.0,27300.0,25400.0,21500.0,22400.0,22100.0,23100.0,37800.0,29600.0,24700.0,22000.0,21700.0,27200.0,29800.0,28100.0,23000.0,26800.0,22600.0,23800.0,27500.0,24700.0,22300.0,20700.0,21200.0,24700.0,28200.0,26000.0,22300.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[4680.0,4680.0,5200.0,5200.0,5460.0,5200.0,5460.0,5460.0,5460.0,5460.0,5200.0,4680.0,4860.0,4860.0,5400.0,5400.0,5670.0,5400.0,5670.0,5670.0,5670.0,5670.0,5400.0,4860.0,4770.0,4770.0,5300.0,5300.0,5565.0,5300.0,5565.0,5565.0,5565.0,5565.0,5300.0,4770.0,4770.0,4770.0,5300.0,5300.0,5565.0,5300.0,5565.0,5565.0,5565.0,5565.0,5300.0,4770.0,4140.0,4140.0,3900.0,3200.0,3400.0,3800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4800.0,4800.0,4000.0,3900.0,4050.0,4050.0,4500.0,4300.0,4700.0,4500.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4700.0,4500.0,4050.0,4320.0,4320.0,4800.0,4800.0,5040.0,4800.0,5040.0,5040.0,5040.0,5040.0,4800.0,4320.0,4230.0,4230.0,4700.0,4700.0,4935.0,4700.0,4935.0,4935.0,4935.0,4935.0,4700.0,4230.0,3870.0,3870.0,4300.0,4300.0,4515.0,4300.0,4515.0,4515.0,4515.0,4515.0,4300.0,3870.0,3510.0,3510.0,3900.0,3900.0,4095.0,3900.0,4095.0,4095.0,4095.0,4095.0,3900.0,3510.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2600.0,2450.0,2800.0,3050.0,3350.0,3550.0,3750.0,3600.0,3200.0,2950.0,2750.0,2650.0,2750.0,2650.0,3000.0,3250.0,3600.0,3850.0,4050.0,3900.0,3450.0,3150.0,2950.0,2850.0,2850.0,2750.0,3150.0,3450.0,3800.0,4100.0,4350.0,4200.0,3750.0,3350.0,3400.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,4300.0,5300.0,6500.0,7600.0,8800.0,7500.0,5900.0,4400.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2750.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,3050.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2650.0,2800.0,3000.0,3300.0,3600.0,3850.0,3750.0,3350.0,3050.0,2850.0,2750.0,2900.0,2850.0,3000.0,3200.0,3450.0,3700.0,3950.0,3850.0,3450.0,3150.0,3000.0,2900.0,2850.0,2750.0,2900.0,3100.0,3350.0,3550.0,3800.0,3700.0,3350.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2750.0,2700.0,2850.0,3050.0,3250.0,3450.0,3650.0,3550.0,3300.0,3100.0,2950.0,2850.0,2800.0,2750.0,2950.0,3250.0,3600.0,3900.0,4200.0,4000.0,3550.0,3200.0,2950.0,2850.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[2700.0,2550.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2650.0,2750.0,2600.0,3000.0,3150.0,3350.0,3500.0,3750.0,3650.0,3400.0,3250.0,2950.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,3100.0,3250.0,3500.0,3650.0,3900.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,3200.0,3100.0,3600.0,4100.0,4800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,3000.0,3150.0,3350.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3350.0,3200.0,2950.0,2800.0,2650.0,2500.0,2850.0,3000.0,3200.0,3350.0,3550.0,3450.0,3200.0,3050.0,2800.0,2650.0,2600.0,2500.0,2850.0,2950.0,3150.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3150.0,3000.0,2750.0,2600.0,2550.0,2450.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,3250.0,3450.0,3350.0,3100.0,2950.0,2700.0,2550.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[11000.0,11550.0,12100.0,11550.0,11000.0,9900.0,8800.0,9020.0,11550.0,12100.0,11550.0,9350.0,10500.0,11025.0,11550.0,11025.0,10500.0,9450.0,8400.0,8610.0,11025.0,11550.0,11025.0,8925.0,11500.0,12075.0,12650.0,12075.0,11500.0,10350.0,9200.0,9430.0,12075.0,12650.0,14075.0,9775.0,12000.0,12600.0,13200.0,15600.0,12000.0,10800.0,9600.0,11340.0,12600.0,13200.0,12600.0,10200.0,10500.0,11025.0,12350.0,11825.0,10500.0,9450.0,8400.0,8610.0,11025.0,11550.0,11025.0,8925.0,9500.0,9975.0,10450.0,9975.0,9500.0,8550.0,7600.0,7790.0,9975.0,10450.0,9975.0,8075.0,9000.0,9450.0,9900.0,9450.0,9000.0,8100.0,7200.0,7380.0,9450.0,9900.0,9450.0,7650.0,8500.0,8925.0,9350.0,8925.0,8500.0,7650.0,6800.0,6970.0,8925.0,9350.0,8925.0,7225.0,7500.0,7875.0,8250.0,7875.0,7500.0,6750.0,6000.0,6150.0,7875.0,8250.0,7875.0,6375.0,6800.0,7140.0,7480.0,7140.0,6800.0,6120.0,5440.0,5580.0,7140.0,7480.0,7140.0,5780.0]}},{"title":"Figure of speech","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Figure of speech\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[70604,73297,62321,48643,51826,82621,75893,77618,78685,70493,66599,49373,68371,69473,67837,40975,43810,73004,57026,52308,56406,57190,54100,42093,59592,57757,57442,41277,41304,66051,57315,49570,45385,47354,41050,33862,41972,38325,45730,32006,33592,43336,34695,32065,36911,32616,31359,24570,29204,33609,30695,28130,28696,25987,26446,28843,35159,37374,32205,27612,32225,30467,31343,24136,21977,23012,22887,23541,26764,30330,29504,24970,26719,23287,25741,20488,19133,17762,16032,17611,20692,20968,19880,15476,16225,16032,18781,15575,15825,12581,11109,11963,13100,15989,17157,13203,15506,15465,16127,15580,16429,13081,14305,21128,19261,19436,15561,13150,14883,12354,12775,9753,10266,10259,9184,9430,13830,37057,31592,26383],"flat_reference_value":16918.02654378655,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[98000.0,102000.0,113000.0,104000.0,91000.0,80000.0,78000.0,99000.0,116000.0,122000.0,111000.0,88000.0,108000.0,112000.0,126000.0,116000.0,101000.0,88000.0,85000.0,109000.0,127000.0,135000.0,124000.0,97000.0,118000.0,121000.0,134000.0,125000.0,109000.0,93000.0,91000.0,117000.0,135000.0,143000.0,131000.0,103000.0,125000.0,128000.0,141000.0,130000.0,113000.0,97000.0,95000.0,122000.0,143000.0,151000.0,136000.0,107000.0,130000.0,134000.0,125000.0,116000.0,105000.0,92000.0,95000.0,127000.0,153000.0,164000.0,151000.0,119000.0,145000.0,149000.0,164000.0,148000.0,127000.0,108000.0,103000.0,132000.0,157000.0,166000.0,151000.0,117000.0,142000.0,146000.0,160000.0,145000.0,125000.0,106000.0,102000.0,130000.0,153000.0,161000.0,146000.0,114000.0,139000.0,141000.0,154000.0,139000.0,119000.0,100000.0,97000.0,123000.0,145000.0,153000.0,139000.0,108000.0,131000.0,133000.0,145000.0,131000.0,112000.0,95000.0,92000.0,116000.0,137000.0,145000.0,131000.0,101000.0,123000.0,124000.0,136000.0,123000.0,105000.0,89000.0,86000.0,109000.0,129000.0,136000.0,123000.0,95000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[67420.0,73850.0,75610.0,72190.0,66840.0,55920.0,53480.0,65730.0,83910.0,87450.0,81260.0,63590.0,71840.0,77620.0,82490.0,78310.0,72150.0,61480.0,63210.0,75890.0,91640.0,95380.0,89120.0,69450.0,75230.0,80940.0,84710.0,80160.0,73890.0,62740.0,63950.0,77420.0,94180.0,97860.0,90530.0,70810.0,77390.0,83120.0,86940.0,81570.0,75430.0,63820.0,64510.0,78960.0,96420.0,99750.0,91840.0,72190.0,78450.0,84290.0,76180.0,82640.0,78910.0,68350.0,66720.0,82490.0,104830.0,109460.0,97620.0,77840.0,85930.0,90140.0,94280.0,87650.0,79820.0,65940.0,62180.0,75630.0,93710.0,96240.0,87950.0,68120.0,73860.0,78410.0,82190.0,75930.0,69740.0,57820.0,55190.0,67940.0,84150.0,86380.0,78620.0,59870.0,64210.0,68350.0,71940.0,65780.0,59630.0,48290.0,46150.0,57840.0,71620.0,73890.0,66140.0,50280.0,54190.0,57830.0,60420.0,55910.0,50360.0,40480.0,38920.0,48150.0,59840.0,61970.0,55230.0,42860.0,46120.0,49380.0,51840.0,47950.0,43620.0,35890.0,34710.0,42960.0,53180.0,54920.0,48740.0,38150.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[98400.0,108200.0,118500.0,106300.0,88100.0,57400.0,51200.0,62300.0,122100.0,133400.0,117600.0,68500.0,103800.0,114100.0,124500.0,111800.0,92400.0,60200.0,53500.0,65100.0,128700.0,140300.0,123500.0,72100.0,108500.0,119800.0,130200.0,116400.0,96100.0,62800.0,55900.0,68200.0,135400.0,147200.0,129600.0,75400.0,110200.0,122400.0,133100.0,118600.0,98300.0,64100.0,57200.0,69800.0,138500.0,150800.0,132400.0,77200.0,112500.0,124800.0,95200.0,88400.0,84100.0,58300.0,52100.0,63400.0,122600.0,135200.0,120100.0,71800.0,103200.0,115400.0,125100.0,111900.0,92500.0,60400.0,53200.0,65400.0,128200.0,139800.0,122900.0,72400.0,95100.0,105300.0,114800.0,102100.0,84200.0,54900.0,48700.0,59800.0,117600.0,128300.0,109800.0,62400.0,74200.0,82100.0,89400.0,79100.0,65200.0,42800.0,38100.0,46900.0,91800.0,99400.0,85700.0,49100.0,64100.0,71300.0,77400.0,68800.0,56200.0,36900.0,32800.0,40300.0,79600.0,86200.0,74500.0,42700.0,57400.0,63800.0,69200.0,61500.0,50200.0,33100.0,29400.0,36100.0,71200.0,77100.0,66700.0,38200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,56200.0,57200.0,54600.0,52000.0,41600.0,36400.0,40600.0,53000.0,58200.0,57200.0,42600.0,48000.0,51800.0,52800.0,50400.0,48000.0,38400.0,33600.0,37400.0,49000.0,53800.0,52800.0,39400.0,44000.0,47500.0,48400.0,46200.0,44000.0,35200.0,30800.0,34300.0,44900.0,49300.0,48400.0,36100.0,40000.0,43200.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,32000.0,28000.0,31200.0,40800.0,44800.0,44000.0,32800.0,36000.0,38900.0,38500.0,36500.0,35000.0,28800.0,25200.0,28100.0,36700.0,40300.0,39600.0,29500.0,32000.0,34600.0,35200.0,33600.0,32000.0,25600.0,22400.0,25000.0,32600.0,35800.0,35200.0,26200.0,28000.0,30200.0,30800.0,29400.0,28000.0,22400.0,19600.0,21800.0,28600.0,31400.0,30800.0,23000.0,25000.0,27000.0,27500.0,26200.0,25000.0,20000.0,17500.0,19500.0,25500.0,28000.0,27500.0,20500.0,23000.0,24800.0,25300.0,24200.0,23000.0,18400.0,16100.0,17900.0,23500.0,25800.0,25300.0,18900.0,21000.0,22700.0,23100.0,22000.0,21000.0,16800.0,14700.0,16400.0,21400.0,23500.0,23100.0,17200.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[126000.0,127000.0,126000.0,120000.0,114000.0,102000.0,101000.0,113000.0,131000.0,130000.0,124000.0,105000.0,117000.0,116000.0,116000.0,109000.0,104000.0,93000.0,92000.0,103000.0,119000.0,118000.0,112000.0,95000.0,104000.0,102000.0,101000.0,96000.0,91000.0,81000.0,80000.0,89000.0,102000.0,101000.0,96000.0,81000.0,91000.0,90000.0,89000.0,84000.0,80000.0,71000.0,71000.0,79000.0,92000.0,91000.0,87000.0,74000.0,86000.0,85000.0,86000.0,95000.0,97000.0,88000.0,84000.0,88000.0,98000.0,97000.0,92000.0,79000.0,87000.0,85000.0,83000.0,78000.0,74000.0,66000.0,63000.0,68000.0,76000.0,74000.0,70000.0,59000.0,64000.0,62000.0,61000.0,57000.0,54000.0,48000.0,47000.0,52000.0,59000.0,58000.0,55000.0,46000.0,51000.0,50000.0,49000.0,46000.0,44000.0,39000.0,38000.0,42000.0,48000.0,47000.0,45000.0,38000.0,43000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,34000.0,33000.0,37000.0,43000.0,42000.0,40000.0,34000.0,39000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,30000.0,30000.0,33000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,30000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[30000.0,31000.0,36000.0,34000.0,35000.0,27000.0,25000.0,27000.0,36000.0,37000.0,34000.0,27000.0,31000.0,33000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,38000.0,38000.0,35000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,39000.0,40000.0,37000.0,29000.0,33000.0,35000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,40000.0,41000.0,38000.0,30000.0,34000.0,36000.0,52000.0,58000.0,46000.0,33000.0,29000.0,33000.0,44000.0,45000.0,41000.0,32000.0,35000.0,37000.0,43000.0,41000.0,42000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,42000.0,43000.0,39000.0,31000.0,34000.0,36000.0,41000.0,39000.0,40000.0,31000.0,29000.0,31000.0,41000.0,42000.0,38000.0,30000.0,33000.0,35000.0,40000.0,38000.0,39000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,40000.0,40000.0,37000.0,29000.0,32000.0,34000.0,39000.0,37000.0,38000.0,30000.0,28000.0,30000.0,39000.0,39000.0,36000.0,29000.0,31000.0,33000.0,38000.0,36000.0,37000.0,29000.0,27000.0,29000.0,38000.0,38000.0,35000.0,28000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[78234.0,75120.0,83145.0,73480.0,72960.0,49875.0,44520.0,48810.0,70935.0,83670.0,76820.0,54850.0,85210.0,76890.0,89450.0,78930.0,78340.0,53560.0,47890.0,52470.0,76120.0,89830.0,82310.0,58970.0,91580.0,82140.0,95720.0,84110.0,83890.0,57120.0,51180.0,56230.0,81340.0,96150.0,87960.0,62980.0,94560.0,85230.0,99480.0,87340.0,87120.0,59380.0,53150.0,58390.0,84470.0,99820.0,91250.0,65420.0,109680.0,103420.0,134500.0,129300.0,115800.0,86400.0,71850.0,76300.0,108400.0,123700.0,113900.0,81200.0,104150.0,93580.0,109230.0,96210.0,94780.0,64320.0,57680.0,63350.0,91890.0,108640.0,99140.0,70980.0,96840.0,87250.0,102080.0,89470.0,89230.0,60810.0,54420.0,59780.0,86560.0,102540.0,93580.0,66930.0,92110.0,83080.0,97140.0,85120.0,84970.0,57890.0,51740.0,56920.0,82430.0,97480.0,88950.0,63720.0,83840.0,78460.0,88420.0,77480.0,77410.0,52670.0,47120.0,51890.0,75180.0,88830.0,81020.0,58010.0,76890.0,69310.0,81150.0,71040.0,71080.0,48230.0,43150.0,47620.0,68940.0,81520.0,74210.0,53180.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[167000.0,161000.0,162000.0,155000.0,165000.0,136000.0,109000.0,106000.0,135000.0,157000.0,154000.0,132000.0,173000.0,165000.0,171000.0,162000.0,171000.0,141000.0,111000.0,108000.0,140000.0,165000.0,162000.0,137000.0,178000.0,171000.0,174000.0,167000.0,174000.0,146000.0,116000.0,112000.0,147000.0,167000.0,167000.0,139000.0,184000.0,178000.0,179000.0,173000.0,182000.0,148000.0,120000.0,115000.0,149000.0,173000.0,176000.0,146000.0,196000.0,185000.0,211000.0,209000.0,211000.0,166000.0,141000.0,139000.0,164000.0,181000.0,181000.0,150000.0,182000.0,174000.0,177000.0,169000.0,180000.0,149000.0,119000.0,116000.0,147000.0,171000.0,171000.0,144000.0,168000.0,163000.0,166000.0,160000.0,169000.0,142000.0,111000.0,107000.0,138000.0,160000.0,157000.0,135000.0,159000.0,154000.0,155000.0,149000.0,157000.0,130000.0,102000.0,99000.0,128000.0,151000.0,149000.0,126000.0,147000.0,141000.0,143000.0,138000.0,143000.0,120000.0,96000.0,92000.0,121000.0,138000.0,138000.0,114000.0,136000.0,130000.0,134000.0,127000.0,135000.0,111000.0,87000.0,85000.0,110000.0,127000.0,129000.0,107000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[47520.0,48400.0,49280.0,46640.0,43120.0,36080.0,34320.0,38720.0,49280.0,48400.0,44000.0,37840.0,51840.0,52800.0,53760.0,50880.0,47040.0,39360.0,37440.0,42240.0,53760.0,52800.0,48000.0,41280.0,55080.0,56100.0,57120.0,54060.0,49980.0,41820.0,39780.0,44880.0,57120.0,56100.0,51000.0,43860.0,58320.0,59400.0,60480.0,57240.0,52920.0,44280.0,42120.0,47520.0,60480.0,59400.0,54000.0,46440.0,56160.0,57200.0,58240.0,55120.0,50960.0,42640.0,40560.0,45760.0,58240.0,57200.0,52000.0,44720.0,60480.0,61600.0,62720.0,59360.0,54880.0,45920.0,43680.0,49280.0,62720.0,61600.0,56000.0,48160.0,62640.0,63800.0,64960.0,61480.0,56840.0,47560.0,45240.0,51040.0,64960.0,63800.0,58000.0,49880.0,59400.0,60500.0,61600.0,58300.0,53900.0,45100.0,42900.0,48400.0,61600.0,60500.0,55000.0,47300.0,55080.0,56100.0,57120.0,54060.0,49980.0,41820.0,39780.0,44880.0,57120.0,56100.0,51000.0,43860.0,50760.0,51700.0,52640.0,49820.0,46060.0,38540.0,36660.0,41360.0,52640.0,51700.0,47000.0,40420.0],"meta/muse-ember":[22500.0,24200.0,22100.0,19800.0,18600.0,15800.0,13900.0,17500.0,26800.0,27500.0,20200.0,16500.0,23800.0,25600.0,23300.0,22100.0,19400.0,16800.0,15200.0,19800.0,28100.0,27900.0,22400.0,17300.0,26200.0,25900.0,25500.0,21900.0,21300.0,17400.0,16100.0,19500.0,29600.0,28900.0,23300.0,18100.0,25900.0,28100.0,26800.0,23100.0,22200.0,18100.0,16800.0,21400.0,29800.0,31600.0,23500.0,19800.0,28300.0,29600.0,35600.0,30900.0,24900.0,19500.0,17100.0,22500.0,37900.0,37800.0,25200.0,20500.0,31200.0,30500.0,30100.0,26200.0,24100.0,20300.0,18100.0,23100.0,35000.0,34400.0,27400.0,21800.0,28900.0,31100.0,28400.0,26800.0,23600.0,21100.0,17900.0,23800.0,33100.0,34800.0,25900.0,22100.0,27900.0,29800.0,27300.0,25700.0,22800.0,20200.0,17200.0,21900.0,31800.0,32200.0,24600.0,20300.0,26600.0,28600.0,26100.0,24700.0,21900.0,19400.0,16500.0,21700.0,30500.0,31200.0,23900.0,19600.0,25400.0,27400.0,24900.0,23600.0,20800.0,18600.0,15800.0,20100.0,29200.0,29800.0,22800.0,18800.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[14800.0,14400.0,14600.0,14000.0,14800.0,12000.0,9800.0,10400.0,18500.0,14800.0,14100.0,10900.0,14400.0,14000.0,14100.0,13600.0,14400.0,11700.0,9500.0,10100.0,18000.0,14400.0,13700.0,10600.0,14100.0,13700.0,13800.0,13300.0,14100.0,11400.0,9300.0,9800.0,17600.0,14100.0,13400.0,10400.0,13700.0,13300.0,13400.0,12900.0,13700.0,11100.0,9000.0,9500.0,17000.0,13700.0,13000.0,10100.0,14600.0,14200.0,15500.0,15900.0,16400.0,11900.0,9700.0,10200.0,19300.0,15400.0,13900.0,10800.0,13400.0,13000.0,13100.0,12600.0,13400.0,10800.0,8800.0,9300.0,16600.0,13400.0,12700.0,9800.0,12300.0,11900.0,12100.0,11600.0,12300.0,10000.0,8100.0,8600.0,15300.0,12300.0,11700.0,9000.0,10200.0,9900.0,10000.0,9600.0,10200.0,8300.0,6000.0,6400.0,11400.0,9200.0,8700.0,6700.0,9400.0,9200.0,9300.0,8900.0,9400.0,7700.0,6200.0,6600.0,11700.0,9400.0,9000.0,6900.0,8800.0,8500.0,8600.0,8300.0,8800.0,7100.0,5800.0,6100.0,11000.0,8800.0,8400.0,6500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[65000.0,69700.0,76900.0,79500.0,74200.0,64700.0,53900.0,60200.0,78500.0,83800.0,72800.0,56400.0,75100.0,72000.0,79600.0,81300.0,76400.0,66700.0,55900.0,62300.0,81000.0,77500.0,69200.0,57900.0,70100.0,74700.0,82200.0,83700.0,78600.0,68700.0,57400.0,64200.0,83100.0,79600.0,71000.0,59500.0,69300.0,73500.0,80900.0,82400.0,77200.0,67700.0,56700.0,63300.0,81700.0,78400.0,69900.0,58600.0,83800.0,86400.0,112800.0,103600.0,95700.0,82400.0,69100.0,76800.0,101500.0,116900.0,90400.0,70900.0,111600.0,86900.0,94300.0,95600.0,89500.0,78300.0,65700.0,73600.0,96300.0,91900.0,81600.0,68200.0,86700.0,91500.0,96100.0,98600.0,98900.0,80600.0,67800.0,75500.0,126800.0,93100.0,82600.0,70000.0,80300.0,79100.0,87000.0,88600.0,82800.0,72500.0,60900.0,67900.0,88200.0,84200.0,74800.0,63100.0,79500.0,82200.0,90100.0,91900.0,85900.0,75400.0,63200.0,70500.0,91800.0,108800.0,82900.0,65700.0,100900.0,82400.0,86900.0,88600.0,83100.0,72900.0,61200.0,68200.0,88800.0,84600.0,75200.0,63500.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,28000.0,24000.0,28000.0,39000.0,42000.0,42000.0,32000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,29000.0,25000.0,29000.0,40000.0,43000.0,43000.0,33000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,30000.0,26000.0,30000.0,41000.0,44000.0,44000.0,34000.0,41000.0,43000.0,45000.0,43000.0,41000.0,29000.0,25000.0,29000.0,40000.0,43000.0,43000.0,33000.0,40000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,27000.0,24000.0,28000.0,38000.0,42000.0,42000.0,32000.0,40000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,28000.0,24000.0,28000.0,39000.0,42000.0,42000.0,32000.0,39000.0,41000.0,43000.0,41000.0,39000.0,27000.0,23000.0,27000.0,38000.0,41000.0,41000.0,31000.0,38000.0,40000.0,42000.0,39000.0,37000.0,26000.0,22000.0,26000.0,36000.0,39000.0,39000.0,29000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,24000.0,20000.0,24000.0,33000.0,36000.0,36000.0,27000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,31000.0,22000.0,18000.0,22000.0,30000.0,33000.0,33000.0,25000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[54000.0,48700.0,47200.0,45100.0,42800.0,30900.0,24900.0,28400.0,56300.0,50800.0,43900.0,32600.0,64300.0,58200.0,55500.0,52800.0,50600.0,36700.0,29800.0,35100.0,66900.0,60900.0,52900.0,40200.0,68200.0,62400.0,58900.0,56500.0,55100.0,39800.0,32200.0,37100.0,71800.0,66100.0,56900.0,42300.0,74100.0,67900.0,65200.0,62100.0,60400.0,43800.0,36100.0,40900.0,79300.0,71900.0,61700.0,45800.0,72400.0,67600.0,94800.0,111700.0,104600.0,61900.0,54700.0,68300.0,99700.0,84900.0,69600.0,64800.0,88400.0,81500.0,75800.0,71600.0,68300.0,48000.0,39200.0,47300.0,84900.0,74800.0,64400.0,48600.0,66300.0,61800.0,57900.0,54700.0,50900.0,37300.0,29000.0,34900.0,69600.0,62200.0,52900.0,39600.0,58300.0,53700.0,50200.0,46800.0,43400.0,31200.0,24100.0,28900.0,60700.0,53900.0,46000.0,33700.0,50800.0,46700.0,44100.0,40900.0,38100.0,27000.0,21300.0,25100.0,55200.0,48600.0,40900.0,30000.0,47100.0,43900.0,41300.0,37800.0,34900.0,24900.0,19700.0,23200.0,50400.0,44300.0,37100.0,28100.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[14400.0,13700.0,14900.0,15500.0,15100.0,13400.0,12300.0,13200.0,15400.0,15800.0,14600.0,12100.0,13900.0,13200.0,14600.0,15000.0,14700.0,13000.0,11900.0,12800.0,15000.0,15400.0,14100.0,11700.0,13600.0,12900.0,14300.0,14800.0,14400.0,12700.0,11600.0,12500.0,14600.0,15100.0,13800.0,11400.0,13300.0,12700.0,14000.0,14500.0,14100.0,12400.0,11300.0,12200.0,14300.0,14700.0,13500.0,11100.0,13200.0,12800.0,14200.0,15800.0,16200.0,14400.0,13200.0,14100.0,16400.0,16800.0,15300.0,12700.0,13700.0,13100.0,14600.0,15100.0,14700.0,13000.0,11800.0,12800.0,14900.0,15400.0,14100.0,11700.0,13100.0,12500.0,13900.0,14400.0,14000.0,12300.0,11200.0,12100.0,14100.0,14600.0,13300.0,11000.0,12700.0,12100.0,13500.0,13900.0,13600.0,12000.0,10900.0,11800.0,13700.0,14200.0,13000.0,10700.0,12300.0,11700.0,13100.0,13500.0,13200.0,11600.0,10500.0,11400.0,13300.0,13800.0,12600.0,10300.0,12000.0,11400.0,12800.0,13200.0,12900.0,11300.0,10200.0,11100.0,12900.0,13400.0,12200.0,10000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[26000.0,28600.0,29900.0,28600.0,26000.0,20800.0,18200.0,22100.0,31200.0,32500.0,28600.0,20800.0,25000.0,27500.0,28750.0,27500.0,25000.0,20000.0,17500.0,21250.0,30000.0,31250.0,27500.0,20000.0,24000.0,26400.0,27600.0,26400.0,24000.0,19200.0,16800.0,20400.0,28800.0,30000.0,26400.0,19200.0,23000.0,25300.0,26450.0,25300.0,23000.0,18400.0,16100.0,19550.0,27600.0,28750.0,25300.0,18400.0,25000.0,27500.0,31600.0,30200.0,27500.0,20000.0,17500.0,21250.0,30000.0,31250.0,27500.0,20000.0,23000.0,25300.0,26450.0,25300.0,23000.0,18400.0,16100.0,19550.0,27600.0,28750.0,25300.0,18400.0,21000.0,23100.0,24150.0,23100.0,21000.0,16800.0,14700.0,17850.0,25200.0,26250.0,23100.0,16800.0,19000.0,20900.0,21850.0,20900.0,19000.0,15200.0,13300.0,16150.0,22800.0,23750.0,20900.0,15200.0,17000.0,18700.0,19550.0,18700.0,17000.0,13600.0,11900.0,14450.0,20400.0,21250.0,18700.0,13600.0,15000.0,16500.0,17250.0,16500.0,15000.0,12000.0,10500.0,12750.0,18000.0,18750.0,16500.0,12000.0]}},{"title":"Stepan Bandera","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Stepan Bandera\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[12876,7704,8740,8088,9169,8255,15296,10125,8263,10788,8800,8695,17470,15189,11080,9467,10966,8423,11523,10118,7896,10029,10258,8311,15223,11629,11943,9079,10452,7635,11760,8768,9570,12681,10569,16255,17941,12000,10638,20621,11156,8565,10708,9766,9207,10282,9358,11522,18923,8852,7957,8529,10946,10684,11174,10612,9543,13051,9475,10016,18215,11673,14352,15177,12761,15041,11821,10829,9854,13528,11571,15695,40394,201441,580557,190400,121849,63501,117745,58368,66313,90822,64876,55857,110183,75615,71050,45644,54556,63556,65597,48222,65900,49511,29812,32704,40750,57528,47837,33771,39942,33653,32534,35174,34388,42345,37303,28844,35800,37966,57171,30069,39316,28895,27008,42726,33777,34689,31147,26497],"flat_reference_value":16946.4119095426,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[18000.0,14500.0,15000.0,14000.0,15500.0,14500.0,16500.0,15500.0,15000.0,17500.0,15000.0,14500.0,19500.0,15500.0,16000.0,15000.0,16500.0,16000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,19500.0,17000.0,16000.0,21000.0,18500.0,17500.0,16500.0,18000.0,17500.0,19500.0,18000.0,17500.0,20500.0,19500.0,18000.0,24500.0,19000.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,18000.0,21000.0,19000.0,18500.0,22000.0,19000.0,18000.0,24000.0,19500.0,18500.0,18000.0,19000.0,18500.0,20500.0,19000.0,19500.0,23000.0,20000.0,19000.0,26000.0,21000.0,22000.0,24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,45000.0,190000.0,420000.0,220000.0,145000.0,110000.0,100000.0,85000.0,80000.0,85000.0,70000.0,65000.0,90000.0,70000.0,65000.0,55000.0,55000.0,50000.0,55000.0,48000.0,60000.0,58000.0,47000.0,45000.0,60000.0,47000.0,45000.0,40000.0,43000.0,40000.0,45000.0,40000.0,39000.0,45000.0,42000.0,39000.0,52000.0,45000.0,43000.0,39000.0,42000.0,38000.0,43000.0,38000.0,38000.0,44000.0,39000.0,37000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[41800.0,33400.0,32900.0,31200.0,33600.0,29800.0,43500.0,34100.0,31700.0,37900.0,32400.0,31900.0,40200.0,31500.0,32800.0,30400.0,31900.0,28700.0,33200.0,29600.0,29100.0,31400.0,32600.0,30800.0,46300.0,54800.0,38200.0,32500.0,33100.0,29400.0,35900.0,30700.0,30200.0,33800.0,32900.0,41600.0,52400.0,34700.0,37100.0,39500.0,35800.0,30900.0,33400.0,31600.0,31200.0,34100.0,32700.0,33900.0,44900.0,32800.0,34600.0,37200.0,36500.0,31800.0,33900.0,33400.0,31900.0,33700.0,32800.0,34500.0,46200.0,34100.0,36800.0,41300.0,37400.0,33500.0,35200.0,34800.0,34200.0,36900.0,41700.0,48600.0,59400.0,418000.0,924000.0,312000.0,186000.0,124000.0,168000.0,106000.0,115000.0,99500.0,84300.0,81200.0,146000.0,91400.0,78600.0,71200.0,73800.0,69400.0,82500.0,67900.0,194000.0,108000.0,68400.0,65200.0,94800.0,342000.0,96300.0,64700.0,62900.0,57400.0,66800.0,61200.0,63500.0,64900.0,62100.0,58700.0,74600.0,93800.0,77400.0,58900.0,66200.0,64800.0,63400.0,87900.0,61500.0,56200.0,53800.0,52400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[42000.0,31000.0,28000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,48000.0,33000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,45000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,26000.0,36000.0,28000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,48000.0,44000.0,35000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,38000.0,28000.0,27000.0,33000.0,31000.0,36000.0,59000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,33000.0,30000.0,37000.0,32000.0,31000.0,35000.0,30000.0,29000.0,51000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,34000.0,28000.0,35000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,53000.0,34000.0,33000.0,38000.0,35000.0,30000.0,37000.0,33000.0,31000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,52000.0,165000.0,820000.0,410000.0,260000.0,190000.0,315000.0,175000.0,145000.0,130000.0,115000.0,105000.0,275000.0,135000.0,115000.0,98000.0,92000.0,88000.0,135000.0,84000.0,105000.0,145000.0,82000.0,73000.0,155000.0,165000.0,95000.0,78000.0,72000.0,66000.0,74000.0,67000.0,76000.0,79000.0,68000.0,62000.0,98000.0,68000.0,62000.0,57000.0,61000.0,54000.0,58000.0,52000.0,50000.0,49000.0,47000.0,46000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[52000.0,46000.0,47000.0,44000.0,43000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,41000.0,44000.0,43000.0,42000.0,50000.0,43000.0,44000.0,41000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,39000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,50000.0,68000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,37000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,47000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,45000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,36000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,44000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,37000.0,40000.0,52000.0,160000.0,430000.0,190000.0,120000.0,95000.0,115000.0,80000.0,78000.0,75000.0,68000.0,65000.0,75000.0,68000.0,62000.0,58000.0,56000.0,55000.0,52000.0,50000.0,85000.0,62000.0,55000.0,52000.0,60000.0,70000.0,55000.0,50000.0,49000.0,46000.0,45000.0,45000.0,46000.0,47000.0,47000.0,45000.0,54000.0,50000.0,52000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,42000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[52000.0,46000.0,46000.0,44000.0,46000.0,42000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,52000.0,45000.0,46000.0,43000.0,45000.0,41000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,45000.0,45000.0,43000.0,54000.0,48000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,58000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,45000.0,44000.0,44000.0,58000.0,46000.0,46000.0,50000.0,50000.0,46000.0,44000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0,46000.0,47000.0,62000.0,50000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,46000.0,46000.0,46000.0,46000.0,50000.0,52000.0,60000.0,95000.0,520000.0,820000.0,380000.0,270000.0,180000.0,200000.0,160000.0,150000.0,160000.0,140000.0,135000.0,190000.0,150000.0,130000.0,115000.0,115000.0,110000.0,110000.0,100000.0,140000.0,125000.0,100000.0,95000.0,115000.0,130000.0,105000.0,92000.0,92000.0,85000.0,84000.0,88000.0,82000.0,84000.0,86000.0,82000.0,100000.0,105000.0,100000.0,82000.0,82000.0,76000.0,74000.0,76000.0,72000.0,72000.0,72000.0,70000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[24000.0,19000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,65000.0,30000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,55000.0,30000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,24000.0,45000.0,26000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20000.0,24000.0,50000.0,100000.0,40000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,60000.0,28000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,45000.0,28000.0,26000.0,30000.0,24000.0,21000.0,30000.0,22000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,30000.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,22000.0,18000.0,26000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,28000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,25000.0,18000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,24000.0,35000.0,170000.0,280000.0,130000.0,80000.0,60000.0,52000.0,45000.0,48000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,45000.0,55000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,40000.0,85000.0,45000.0,110000.0,70000.0,42000.0,38000.0,45000.0,55000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,36000.0,45000.0,65000.0,50000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[13542.0,12876.0,13210.0,11984.0,10892.0,9431.0,22184.0,11873.0,11542.0,12308.0,12567.0,11793.0,13245.0,12108.0,12677.0,11432.0,10854.0,9620.0,8934.0,9215.0,10877.0,11643.0,12109.0,11486.0,13892.0,12234.0,12456.0,11023.0,11287.0,9876.0,9043.0,9356.0,10789.0,11534.0,11892.0,11234.0,14123.0,12543.0,13112.0,12876.0,11542.0,10023.0,9345.0,9678.0,10987.0,11654.0,11987.0,11345.0,13768.0,12345.0,11876.0,12543.0,11987.0,10234.0,9567.0,9876.0,11234.0,11987.0,12345.0,11876.0,14567.0,12876.0,13452.0,15234.0,13876.0,11987.0,16842.0,13245.0,14123.0,15876.0,18765.0,25678.0,38452.0,187543.0,462187.0,238456.0,154321.0,102456.0,87432.0,79234.0,88345.0,76321.0,68453.0,61876.0,114567.0,82345.0,67234.0,58321.0,54123.0,47876.0,44213.0,43187.0,48765.0,52341.0,49876.0,46321.0,51234.0,243876.0,68453.0,52341.0,47654.0,41234.0,37876.0,38542.0,42345.0,43876.0,41234.0,38987.0,42345.0,38765.0,41237.0,36452.0,33567.0,29876.0,27453.0,28341.0,31234.0,32678.0,33892.0,31567.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[21000.0,5600.0,5100.0,4700.0,5300.0,4500.0,7200.0,4200.0,4800.0,8200.0,5200.0,4900.0,23000.0,5800.0,5300.0,5000.0,5500.0,4900.0,4600.0,4400.0,5100.0,9200.0,5800.0,5500.0,27000.0,17000.0,7200.0,6600.0,7600.0,6200.0,5900.0,5700.0,6400.0,11500.0,7000.0,9000.0,36000.0,8200.0,7900.0,11500.0,7600.0,7100.0,6900.0,7300.0,8100.0,12500.0,8200.0,7800.0,31000.0,8800.0,11500.0,10200.0,10500.0,9000.0,8600.0,8400.0,9200.0,14000.0,10000.0,9400.0,38000.0,10500.0,12500.0,11000.0,11800.0,10500.0,10200.0,11500.0,13000.0,19500.0,17500.0,24000.0,52000.0,195000.0,215000.0,98000.0,66000.0,56000.0,50000.0,46000.0,52000.0,72000.0,50000.0,43000.0,68000.0,84000.0,58000.0,50000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,56000.0,50000.0,40000.0,35000.0,46000.0,56000.0,42000.0,38000.0,44000.0,36000.0,34000.0,32000.0,33000.0,36000.0,40000.0,32000.0,35000.0,45000.0,38000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,25000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,25000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,3600.0,3200.0,3000.0,4500.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3900.0,3400.0,3200.0,5000.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,4400.0,3900.0,3600.0,6000.0,4500.0,5000.0,9000.0,7000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4800.0,6000.0,5200.0,4800.0,6500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4800.0,5800.0,5200.0,4800.0,8000.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5500.0,5800.0,7000.0,6200.0,5800.0,10000.0,45000.0,220000.0,90000.0,50000.0,35000.0,28000.0,25000.0,30000.0,45000.0,35000.0,28000.0,35000.0,30000.0,28000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,19000.0,25000.0,21000.0,18000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,13000.0,16000.0,14000.0,12000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,11000.0,10000.0,9000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[9500.0,8200.0,9800.0,8100.0,10200.0,8400.0,11200.0,9600.0,8200.0,10800.0,8300.0,8600.0,12100.0,10300.0,9200.0,11500.0,9700.0,9000.0,10300.0,9100.0,8700.0,10200.0,8800.0,8900.0,10800.0,12400.0,10100.0,9200.0,9500.0,9400.0,11100.0,9400.0,9000.0,10100.0,9100.0,9300.0,18500.0,11800.0,12200.0,14200.0,10800.0,10200.0,11200.0,9800.0,9600.0,11000.0,9900.0,10100.0,13500.0,10600.0,10800.0,10200.0,10400.0,10100.0,10800.0,10300.0,10000.0,11200.0,10100.0,10300.0,14500.0,13200.0,11500.0,11800.0,14800.0,12300.0,11600.0,11200.0,11400.0,12500.0,11800.0,16200.0,23800.0,52000.0,128000.0,88000.0,69000.0,52000.0,41000.0,34000.0,29500.0,27000.0,28500.0,25000.0,29500.0,24000.0,20500.0,19500.0,21500.0,28000.0,19000.0,22000.0,34000.0,31500.0,22500.0,21000.0,26500.0,20500.0,19800.0,22500.0,19500.0,19000.0,18500.0,19200.0,27500.0,21500.0,27000.0,23500.0,26000.0,24000.0,22500.0,27000.0,33500.0,31000.0,26500.0,26000.0,21000.0,22500.0,19500.0,19000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[58000.0,44000.0,47000.0,42000.0,46000.0,36000.0,32000.0,34000.0,41000.0,52000.0,44000.0,38000.0,66000.0,50000.0,54000.0,48000.0,53000.0,41000.0,37000.0,39000.0,47000.0,58000.0,49000.0,43000.0,78000.0,58000.0,62000.0,55000.0,62000.0,58000.0,55000.0,50000.0,58000.0,70000.0,60000.0,64000.0,88000.0,66000.0,70000.0,72000.0,78000.0,56000.0,50000.0,54000.0,64000.0,78000.0,66000.0,58000.0,100000.0,76000.0,82000.0,74000.0,80000.0,62000.0,56000.0,60000.0,72000.0,88000.0,76000.0,66000.0,115000.0,88000.0,94000.0,86000.0,92000.0,74000.0,68000.0,72000.0,86000.0,104000.0,118000.0,150000.0,320000.0,1050000.0,2600000.0,1500000.0,1250000.0,950000.0,780000.0,680000.0,900000.0,760000.0,580000.0,470000.0,430000.0,560000.0,380000.0,300000.0,340000.0,260000.0,240000.0,250000.0,280000.0,330000.0,270000.0,230000.0,520000.0,320000.0,270000.0,250000.0,300000.0,230000.0,215000.0,330000.0,300000.0,310000.0,280000.0,240000.0,480000.0,560000.0,470000.0,300000.0,520000.0,270000.0,250000.0,265000.0,290000.0,340000.0,280000.0,240000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[14500.0,11200.0,10800.0,11000.0,11600.0,10400.0,14600.0,10300.0,10100.0,10900.0,13200.0,10600.0,12100.0,10800.0,10500.0,10600.0,11200.0,10100.0,13500.0,10200.0,10400.0,10800.0,12600.0,10900.0,15800.0,20500.0,11300.0,11200.0,11800.0,10900.0,16400.0,11000.0,10800.0,11300.0,13900.0,11200.0,28500.0,14200.0,16000.0,14500.0,16500.0,13800.0,28500.0,14000.0,13300.0,13800.0,16200.0,13700.0,22000.0,14200.0,13800.0,13600.0,14500.0,13500.0,18500.0,13500.0,13800.0,14200.0,15500.0,14000.0,24000.0,14500.0,14800.0,14200.0,15000.0,14000.0,19500.0,14000.0,14500.0,14800.0,16000.0,19000.0,34000.0,68000.0,188000.0,126000.0,174000.0,108000.0,156000.0,101000.0,94000.0,90000.0,110000.0,94000.0,192000.0,89000.0,92000.0,143000.0,96000.0,87000.0,128000.0,83000.0,80000.0,81000.0,99000.0,78000.0,158000.0,76000.0,78000.0,80000.0,79000.0,74000.0,116000.0,69000.0,67000.0,69000.0,89000.0,65000.0,142000.0,66000.0,67000.0,66000.0,65000.0,61000.0,104000.0,60000.0,59000.0,60000.0,81000.0,56000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[70000.0,65000.0,68000.0,64000.0,62000.0,58000.0,57000.0,56000.0,60000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,72000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,62000.0,58000.0,57000.0,56000.0,60000.0,64000.0,63000.0,60000.0,75000.0,70000.0,72000.0,68000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,60000.0,64000.0,68000.0,66000.0,64000.0,82000.0,74000.0,76000.0,78000.0,72000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,66000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,78000.0,72000.0,74000.0,72000.0,68000.0,64000.0,62000.0,62000.0,66000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,82000.0,74000.0,76000.0,74000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,68000.0,72000.0,76000.0,78000.0,84000.0,105000.0,210000.0,400000.0,240000.0,190000.0,170000.0,165000.0,155000.0,160000.0,160000.0,150000.0,145000.0,160000.0,145000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,135000.0,120000.0,135000.0,135000.0,125000.0,120000.0,135000.0,125000.0,125000.0,118000.0,115000.0,112000.0,110000.0,105000.0,112000.0,115000.0,110000.0,108000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,108000.0,105000.0,100000.0,98000.0,95000.0,102000.0,105000.0,100000.0,98000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[13421.0,10982.0,13155.0,11874.0,10532.0,10312.0,10784.0,11162.0,13175.0,14420.0,13122.0,11425.0,13122.0,10821.0,12933.0,11642.0,10411.0,10723.0,10542.0,10862.0,13245.0,14712.0,13265.0,11542.0,12833.0,10721.0,12633.0,11423.0,10321.0,10742.0,10432.0,10822.0,12923.0,14412.0,13032.0,11321.0,12433.0,10521.0,12332.0,11221.0,10132.0,10312.0,10121.0,10542.0,12732.0,14023.0,12611.0,11032.0,11823.0,10122.0,11732.0,10642.0,9821.0,10112.0,9932.0,10212.0,12032.0,13221.0,11621.0,10122.0,11032.0,9721.0,11322.0,10231.0,9722.0,10121.0,9931.0,10222.0,11932.0,13421.0,14812.0,18321.0,25631.0,284371.0,149826.0,86412.0,57302.0,38120.0,26731.0,18922.0,14521.0,16431.0,12923.0,14632.0,13221.0,11122.0,12531.0,11423.0,10432.0,10821.0,10532.0,10923.0,12632.0,14221.0,12731.0,11232.0,12521.0,10923.0,12222.0,11231.0,10321.0,10832.0,10423.0,10911.0,12431.0,13921.0,12521.0,11122.0,11731.0,10321.0,11522.0,10623.0,9811.0,10122.0,9821.0,10222.0,11731.0,13012.0,11622.0,10321.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[11000.0,10000.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,12000.0,12500.0,13000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10500.0,11500.0,12000.0,14000.0,12500.0,13500.0,15000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11000.0,14000.0,26000.0,18000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,16000.0,14500.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,11500.0,15000.0,14000.0,14500.0,18000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,12500.0,14500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,14000.0,14500.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,15000.0,16000.0,14500.0,15000.0,16500.0,19000.0,22000.0,120000.0,180000.0,105000.0,75000.0,52000.0,43000.0,38000.0,42000.0,35000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,26000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,32000.0,52000.0,33000.0,29000.0,31000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,42000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,28000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,4500.0,5500.0,9000.0,40000.0,70000.0,35000.0,25000.0,20000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7800.0,7500.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,6800.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6500.0,6300.0,6200.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,6000.0,5800.0,5800.0]}},{"title":"Kate Flannery","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Kate Flannery\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[25387,21899,19358,16140,15908,16994,16272,15927,14747,14193,14490,22260,22310,18999,17152,18949,19533,17824,20932,23726,19801,19592,20581,26332,34296,30843,34904,39192,29304,29225,33202,33138,27233,25103,28233,30724,34379,27899,27370,23436,24920,26494,31350,56610,108932,166436,75488,35712,32053,26225,30709,43563,38634,30909,32366,31274,28928,27451,26465,33654,44269,29553,27125,25715,26668,20069,20278,25764,21805,25656,28108,24535,34534,26071,24707,22926,20343,20628,21794,21933,17850,25762,19506,19051,23832,20167,21716,21837,21354,26895,27180,28456,18745,24733,21386,28662,29359,23753,26365,62337,42606,29317,20496,18470,18813,18663,23591,19467,24647,17613,23113,15520,15164,15799,18270,20294,28060,19938,16722,15916],"flat_reference_value":16928.816540550826,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[22000.0,19000.0,20500.0,18500.0,19000.0,18500.0,20000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22000.0,20500.0,23500.0,24500.0,21500.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21500.0,23500.0,22500.0,24000.0,24500.0,23000.0,26000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25500.0,24000.0,24500.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27500.0,29000.0,27000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,65000.0,180000.0,210000.0,130000.0,55000.0,48000.0,42000.0,50000.0,58000.0,54000.0,49000.0,50000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,45000.0,54000.0,55000.0,45000.0,47000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,43000.0,40000.0,39000.0,41000.0,38000.0,44000.0,45000.0,38000.0,40000.0,37000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,38000.0,35000.0,41000.0,41000.0,35000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,34000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,39000.0,39000.0,33000.0,35000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,32000.0,38000.0,38000.0,32000.0,34000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,33000.0,31000.0,37000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[36200.0,33400.0,34800.0,33100.0,35600.0,34200.0,36900.0,35500.0,32800.0,34100.0,33700.0,36500.0,38900.0,35200.0,37400.0,36100.0,37800.0,36500.0,39400.0,38200.0,35900.0,37100.0,36800.0,39800.0,44200.0,40500.0,43800.0,41900.0,43100.0,42400.0,45600.0,44100.0,41200.0,42500.0,43300.0,46800.0,48500.0,43200.0,46100.0,44300.0,45800.0,44900.0,47200.0,78400.0,148000.0,165000.0,118000.0,52400.0,51800.0,46500.0,56200.0,64800.0,62400.0,54900.0,53100.0,51600.0,47800.0,48900.0,49500.0,55300.0,58400.0,47200.0,46800.0,44100.0,45300.0,42900.0,44600.0,43200.0,39800.0,41200.0,40500.0,43900.0,45100.0,38900.0,40200.0,37800.0,39400.0,37500.0,39800.0,38400.0,35600.0,36900.0,36200.0,39100.0,40800.0,35400.0,36900.0,34200.0,35800.0,34500.0,36700.0,35100.0,32800.0,33900.0,33400.0,36200.0,37500.0,32900.0,34100.0,31800.0,33600.0,34900.0,33800.0,32400.0,30500.0,31600.0,31200.0,34400.0,35200.0,30800.0,31900.0,29700.0,31100.0,30400.0,32100.0,30900.0,33500.0,30200.0,29800.0,32600.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[27100.0,25800.0,28400.0,26200.0,27900.0,29300.0,31200.0,28900.0,27400.0,28600.0,26900.0,29500.0,31800.0,28100.0,30500.0,29700.0,28900.0,32400.0,34100.0,33200.0,31500.0,32800.0,33900.0,36200.0,38400.0,34100.0,36700.0,35200.0,33800.0,37100.0,39500.0,38200.0,35900.0,37600.0,39800.0,42100.0,43500.0,38900.0,41200.0,39700.0,38400.0,42100.0,44300.0,61200.0,178500.0,214000.0,108500.0,49200.0,47600.0,43100.0,54200.0,69800.0,58300.0,48900.0,46200.0,43500.0,41800.0,42900.0,45100.0,48200.0,43800.0,37200.0,38500.0,36100.0,34900.0,36400.0,38200.0,35800.0,33900.0,36100.0,34800.0,37200.0,38900.0,33200.0,34700.0,32800.0,31500.0,33800.0,35400.0,33600.0,31900.0,33100.0,32400.0,34800.0,36200.0,31100.0,32500.0,30800.0,29600.0,31400.0,33200.0,31900.0,29800.0,31500.0,30700.0,32900.0,34100.0,29800.0,31200.0,29400.0,28100.0,29900.0,31500.0,30200.0,28700.0,29800.0,29100.0,31200.0,32400.0,28200.0,29600.0,27900.0,26800.0,28400.0,29900.0,28700.0,27300.0,28500.0,27800.0,29700.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[38000.0,34000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,37000.0,40000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,37000.0,37000.0,40000.0,43000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,41000.0,44000.0,47000.0,43000.0,44000.0,43000.0,44000.0,44000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,46000.0,46000.0,49000.0,52000.0,48000.0,55000.0,62000.0,58000.0,54000.0,53000.0,65000.0,185000.0,160000.0,125000.0,65000.0,55000.0,46000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,41000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,43000.0,38000.0,38000.0,37000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,38000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,34000.0,35000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[50000.0,45000.0,45000.0,43000.0,42000.0,43000.0,45000.0,45000.0,44000.0,45000.0,46000.0,50000.0,55000.0,50000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,52000.0,56000.0,56000.0,54000.0,56000.0,58000.0,63000.0,70000.0,63000.0,66000.0,65000.0,64000.0,66000.0,70000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,70000.0,78000.0,82000.0,72000.0,75000.0,72000.0,70000.0,72000.0,76000.0,150000.0,380000.0,420000.0,260000.0,110000.0,100000.0,85000.0,95000.0,115000.0,110000.0,95000.0,95000.0,90000.0,80000.0,78000.0,78000.0,88000.0,85000.0,72000.0,72000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,62000.0,56000.0,56000.0,56000.0,60000.0,60000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,48000.0,47000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,47000.0,48000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,37000.0,37000.0,38000.0,40000.0,41000.0,38000.0,80000.0,45000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,36000.0,32000.0,33000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,31000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[9800.0,8600.0,10400.0,8900.0,9100.0,8400.0,8700.0,9200.0,9000.0,9600.0,9100.0,8500.0,9900.0,9200.0,11600.0,9800.0,10100.0,9400.0,9700.0,10300.0,10000.0,10800.0,10200.0,9800.0,12400.0,11600.0,14000.0,12200.0,12600.0,11800.0,12100.0,12900.0,12500.0,13400.0,12800.0,12200.0,13600.0,12800.0,15200.0,13400.0,13900.0,14600.0,14000.0,14500.0,95000.0,145000.0,115000.0,42000.0,26000.0,21000.0,33000.0,29000.0,21000.0,17500.0,15800.0,14600.0,14000.0,14800.0,13900.0,21500.0,25000.0,15500.0,13800.0,11700.0,10900.0,10300.0,10000.0,9700.0,9900.0,9400.0,9200.0,9000.0,9100.0,8300.0,9600.0,8200.0,8400.0,7900.0,8100.0,8300.0,8200.0,8600.0,8100.0,8000.0,7900.0,7300.0,8600.0,7400.0,7500.0,7100.0,7200.0,7400.0,7300.0,7600.0,7300.0,7200.0,7000.0,6600.0,7600.0,6700.0,6800.0,6500.0,6600.0,6700.0,6800.0,7100.0,6800.0,6900.0,7200.0,6900.0,8800.0,7400.0,7500.0,7400.0,8600.0,9200.0,11500.0,9000.0,8400.0,8200.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[18634.0,17122.0,17245.0,15987.0,15892.0,14210.0,14578.0,15033.0,16341.0,17915.0,16604.0,15328.0,19845.0,18310.0,18472.0,17002.0,16890.0,15123.0,15488.0,15965.0,17328.0,19012.0,17544.0,16273.0,21560.0,19877.0,19984.0,18453.0,18312.0,16405.0,16821.0,17340.0,18815.0,20654.0,19002.0,17789.0,23810.0,21984.0,22145.0,20388.0,20233.0,18142.0,18589.0,34217.0,118452.0,145830.0,84216.0,26845.0,27812.0,26610.0,30487.0,31892.0,28745.0,21230.0,21704.0,22318.0,24266.0,26615.0,24612.0,29540.0,27530.0,23018.0,23395.0,21542.0,21387.0,19185.0,19652.0,20251.0,21983.0,24118.0,22256.0,20745.0,23255.0,21448.0,21602.0,19908.0,23870.0,17710.0,18145.0,18702.0,20297.0,22274.0,20553.0,19112.0,22234.0,20506.0,20653.0,19034.0,18881.0,16933.0,17349.0,17881.0,19406.0,21296.0,19651.0,18244.0,21441.0,20512.0,19915.0,18354.0,18207.0,16328.0,16730.0,17242.0,18712.0,20535.0,18949.0,17598.0,20647.0,19038.0,19177.0,17675.0,17532.0,15724.0,16110.0,16603.0,18020.0,19774.0,18247.0,16946.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5800.0,5500.0,6200.0,5400.0,5900.0,6300.0,5200.0,5000.0,5600.0,5900.0,5700.0,7000.0,6200.0,6000.0,6800.0,6300.0,6600.0,7200.0,6000.0,5800.0,6400.0,6900.0,6700.0,8200.0,7300.0,7000.0,7800.0,7400.0,8000.0,8400.0,7200.0,7000.0,7600.0,8200.0,8000.0,9500.0,8600.0,8300.0,9000.0,8800.0,9400.0,9800.0,9000.0,12000.0,32000.0,55000.0,22000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9200.0,10500.0,11500.0,15000.0,11000.0,10000.0,9800.0,10200.0,10600.0,11000.0,13500.0,11000.0,8800.0,8200.0,7800.0,8400.0,8200.0,7400.0,7000.0,7600.0,8000.0,7800.0,9200.0,7400.0,6800.0,7200.0,6900.0,7400.0,7200.0,6500.0,6300.0,6800.0,7200.0,7000.0,8400.0,6800.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,6900.0,6800.0,6100.0,5900.0,6300.0,6700.0,6500.0,7800.0,6600.0,6200.0,6500.0,6300.0,6800.0,6700.0,6100.0,5900.0,6400.0,6900.0,6700.0,8000.0,6500.0,6200.0,6600.0,6400.0,7000.0,7200.0,6400.0,6200.0,8000.0,7200.0,6900.0,8300.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[7200.0,6800.0,7000.0,6900.0,7100.0,7000.0,7500.0,7600.0,7800.0,8000.0,8200.0,8500.0,8600.0,8200.0,8400.0,8300.0,8500.0,8600.0,9000.0,9200.0,9400.0,9600.0,9800.0,10200.0,10400.0,10000.0,10200.0,10100.0,10300.0,10400.0,10800.0,11000.0,11200.0,11400.0,11600.0,12000.0,12200.0,11800.0,12000.0,11900.0,12100.0,12200.0,12600.0,12800.0,65000.0,85000.0,45000.0,22000.0,24000.0,20000.0,22000.0,23000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17000.0,17500.0,26000.0,42000.0,28000.0,23000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,16000.0,15500.0,15000.0,15500.0,14500.0,15000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13800.0,14000.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11800.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,12000.0,11500.0,10800.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,10000.0,10200.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,10200.0,10000.0,9400.0,11500.0,9800.0,9000.0,8800.0,9000.0,9200.0,9500.0,9200.0,9000.0,9300.0],"meta/muse-ember":[7800.0,7300.0,7600.0,7100.0,7200.0,7700.0,6800.0,6800.0,7400.0,7800.0,7500.0,7100.0,8200.0,7800.0,8000.0,7500.0,7600.0,8100.0,7100.0,7200.0,7800.0,8300.0,7900.0,7500.0,9700.0,9200.0,9500.0,8900.0,9000.0,9600.0,8500.0,8600.0,9300.0,9800.0,9400.0,8900.0,11400.0,10800.0,11100.0,11800.0,10700.0,11200.0,10000.0,10100.0,10900.0,11500.0,11000.0,10500.0,13000.0,12200.0,19800.0,20500.0,17500.0,16600.0,14000.0,13600.0,14900.0,16000.0,15100.0,13900.0,15800.0,12400.0,12800.0,12100.0,12200.0,12900.0,11500.0,11600.0,12600.0,13200.0,12700.0,12100.0,10800.0,10200.0,10500.0,9900.0,10000.0,10600.0,9400.0,9500.0,10300.0,10800.0,10400.0,9900.0,9700.0,9200.0,9400.0,8900.0,12200.0,9600.0,8500.0,8600.0,9300.0,9700.0,9400.0,8900.0,10600.0,10000.0,13900.0,9700.0,9800.0,11400.0,11100.0,9300.0,10100.0,10600.0,10200.0,9700.0,11300.0,10700.0,11000.0,10400.0,10500.0,11100.0,9900.0,10000.0,15700.0,14200.0,10900.0,10400.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[5700.0,5900.0,6400.0,6100.0,6300.0,5800.0,5200.0,5100.0,6700.0,7000.0,6800.0,5500.0,5400.0,5500.0,6000.0,5700.0,5800.0,5400.0,4900.0,4800.0,6300.0,6600.0,6400.0,5200.0,5100.0,5200.0,5700.0,5400.0,5500.0,5100.0,4600.0,4500.0,6000.0,6300.0,6100.0,4900.0,4900.0,5000.0,5500.0,5100.0,5300.0,4800.0,4400.0,4300.0,5700.0,6000.0,5800.0,4600.0,4800.0,4700.0,13000.0,26000.0,16500.0,10500.0,8200.0,7700.0,9600.0,9000.0,8400.0,11800.0,10200.0,7600.0,7200.0,6300.0,6000.0,5400.0,4800.0,4700.0,5600.0,5800.0,5600.0,4900.0,4000.0,4000.0,4400.0,4100.0,4200.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,4600.0,4800.0,4600.0,3800.0,3800.0,3800.0,4200.0,3900.0,9800.0,4100.0,3400.0,3300.0,4400.0,4600.0,4500.0,3600.0,3600.0,3700.0,4100.0,3700.0,3900.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,3400.0,3700.0,3900.0,14500.0,9000.0,6800.0,5300.0,4300.0,4100.0,4700.0,4900.0,4700.0,3900.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2200.0,1900.0,2100.0,2000.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2600.0,2800.0,9000.0,6500.0,4300.0,3400.0,3100.0,3600.0,3400.0,3800.0,4000.0,3700.0,4500.0,4800.0,7600.0,6200.0,4800.0,4400.0,7500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4900.0,5200.0,4800.0,5800.0,6800.0,10100.0,8400.0,6300.0,5800.0,9200.0,5300.0,5600.0,6000.0,6400.0,5900.0,7100.0,9100.0,11000.0,9200.0,6900.0,7500.0,11500.0,8500.0,9300.0,17000.0,13000.0,9800.0,10200.0,11300.0,16000.0,12500.0,8900.0,8400.0,13500.0,7900.0,8300.0,9000.0,9400.0,8700.0,9900.0,11000.0,13200.0,10500.0,8700.0,7900.0,7400.0,8200.0,8600.0,9100.0,9500.0,8800.0,10000.0,10600.0,12300.0,9900.0,8000.0,7400.0,7000.0,7300.0,7800.0,8600.0,12500.0,9600.0,8500.0,9000.0,10400.0,9200.0,7800.0,6100.0,5700.0,6200.0,6500.0,7000.0,8500.0,7600.0,7900.0,8300.0,9300.0,8200.0,7100.0,6500.0,10000.0,6400.0,6700.0,7200.0,7600.0,7000.0,7600.0,7900.0,8700.0,8000.0,7100.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,95000.0,110000.0,120000.0,55000.0,45000.0,42000.0,48000.0,46000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,41000.0,40000.0,41000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,37000.0,35000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[300.0,240.0,280.0,260.0,240.0,260.0,230.0,220.0,260.0,270.0,290.0,310.0,285.0,230.0,295.0,255.0,245.0,260.0,225.0,220.0,250.0,265.0,285.0,305.0,315.0,255.0,325.0,290.0,270.0,285.0,250.0,245.0,285.0,300.0,325.0,345.0,345.0,280.0,600.0,320.0,295.0,315.0,275.0,270.0,315.0,330.0,360.0,395.0,550.0,470.0,780.0,860.0,720.0,650.0,540.0,510.0,560.0,600.0,680.0,760.0,550.0,430.0,530.0,480.0,450.0,510.0,420.0,390.0,450.0,480.0,520.0,560.0,450.0,360.0,430.0,390.0,360.0,410.0,340.0,330.0,380.0,400.0,430.0,470.0,400.0,320.0,380.0,350.0,325.0,370.0,310.0,300.0,340.0,360.0,390.0,430.0,380.0,310.0,365.0,335.0,310.0,350.0,300.0,295.0,325.0,345.0,375.0,415.0,390.0,320.0,820.0,450.0,380.0,580.0,340.0,320.0,370.0,400.0,430.0,480.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1500.0,1480.0,1650.0,1580.0,1690.0,1630.0,1720.0,1800.0,1880.0,1810.0,1950.0,2050.0,1900.0,1800.0,1950.0,2000.0,2100.0,2050.0,2150.0,2300.0,2200.0,2250.0,2400.0,2600.0,2400.0,2200.0,2450.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2900.0,3100.0,3000.0,3300.0,3800.0,3400.0,3000.0,3200.0,3500.0,3600.0,3900.0,4200.0,9800.0,19000.0,16500.0,10500.0,5300.0,4800.0,4200.0,5000.0,6500.0,5700.0,5200.0,4900.0,5100.0,5400.0,6000.0,5800.0,8500.0,6000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4500.0,4200.0,4600.0,3900.0,3400.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3200.0,3300.0,3100.0,3500.0,3000.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2450.0,2400.0,2350.0,2500.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2900.0,3100.0,2700.0,2600.0,2550.0,2500.0,2450.0,2400.0,2600.0,3000.0,3200.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2600.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,950.0,980.0,1050.0,1100.0,1080.0,1000.0,1080.0,1020.0,1010.0,980.0,940.0,900.0,880.0,900.0,960.0,1000.0,980.0,920.0,960.0,920.0,910.0,880.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,810.0,860.0,900.0,880.0,830.0,900.0,870.0,880.0,860.0,840.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,1000.0,980.0,950.0,920.0,950.0,920.0,1400.0,1800.0,1700.0,1500.0,1350.0,1250.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,980.0,950.0,1000.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,860.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,790.0,780.0,800.0,820.0,850.0,820.0,780.0,830.0,800.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,740.0,730.0,750.0,780.0,800.0,770.0,730.0,800.0,760.0,760.0,740.0,720.0,700.0,690.0,710.0,740.0,760.0,740.0,700.0,760.0,720.0,720.0,700.0,690.0,670.0,660.0,680.0,720.0,740.0,710.0,680.0]}},{"title":"Andrew Upton","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Andrew Upton\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[47220,46120,37192,21470,19308,19800,16598,16358,17367,19218,18491,26350,31821,20129,34342,33601,19952,16518,21852,20818,17783,46759,67373,38213,42278,33807,43801,29671,56390,90795,39231,36948,62863,28951,27299,40426,46393,33070,35976,29586,31487,26193,29511,50418,26513,24660,23940,29677,29369,23906,27657,62149,54282,40225,45204,31150,32910,23062,27628,33216,34582,27638,29401,27273,28779,22021,27361,23729,20690,21144,19323,62293,83798,42012,35441,24590,20267,19060,24606,22193,32449,66783,38289,46835,95367,96266,97317,37031,28848,35300,31347,25500,24537,23933,25127,31536,31774,36734,28777,21460,28217,21608,19499,38972,35322,50739,43128,34682,32761,25635,60769,37127,29237,27042,35917,25383,29345,24181,28476,26687],"flat_reference_value":16908.605280822547,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[11500.0,13200.0,10500.0,8200.0,7800.0,7400.0,7600.0,8000.0,8600.0,72000.0,24000.0,13000.0,11500.0,10200.0,9500.0,8500.0,8700.0,8200.0,7900.0,8300.0,9000.0,11200.0,9800.0,10400.0,10800.0,10300.0,11000.0,9500.0,18500.0,21000.0,12000.0,9700.0,9000.0,9500.0,9200.0,9800.0,10200.0,9500.0,8900.0,8300.0,8700.0,8200.0,8100.0,8700.0,9800.0,9500.0,9100.0,9600.0,10300.0,10000.0,8800.0,12500.0,13500.0,10500.0,9200.0,10500.0,11500.0,9500.0,9000.0,10000.0,10200.0,9200.0,9000.0,8500.0,8200.0,8500.0,8700.0,9800.0,11200.0,10300.0,10000.0,14500.0,15000.0,10500.0,11500.0,9000.0,8800.0,8500.0,8900.0,10200.0,12500.0,15000.0,14500.0,16000.0,28000.0,23000.0,30000.0,15000.0,11500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9200.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,10200.0,11500.0,10500.0,11000.0,9500.0,13500.0,10500.0,9800.0,13500.0,13000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10500.0,12000.0,11000.0,11500.0,10500.0,10000.0,9500.0,9000.0,9500.0,10500.0,10200.0,9800.0,10500.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[26500.0,38000.0,31000.0,13500.0,11800.0,10400.0,10100.0,9800.0,9500.0,10200.0,10600.0,12800.0,23500.0,16800.0,14900.0,10800.0,11500.0,10200.0,9900.0,9600.0,9800.0,15200.0,26400.0,15800.0,13900.0,13200.0,12600.0,10500.0,15600.0,27500.0,17800.0,13400.0,14200.0,11800.0,10900.0,11400.0,12200.0,12800.0,11500.0,10200.0,10400.0,9800.0,10100.0,14600.0,11900.0,10500.0,10800.0,11600.0,14200.0,12500.0,14800.0,21500.0,24800.0,16400.0,23200.0,16900.0,17500.0,12800.0,11900.0,12400.0,13100.0,11800.0,11600.0,11200.0,10900.0,10400.0,10800.0,10500.0,10200.0,10600.0,11400.0,27800.0,31500.0,18400.0,16900.0,12200.0,11500.0,10600.0,10400.0,10100.0,16800.0,19500.0,17200.0,15800.0,33500.0,31200.0,41800.0,15600.0,13400.0,11200.0,10800.0,10400.0,9900.0,9800.0,9600.0,10500.0,11200.0,13800.0,14500.0,10400.0,13200.0,9800.0,9500.0,14900.0,12400.0,21600.0,22800.0,13400.0,13900.0,13200.0,21400.0,16500.0,14200.0,13800.0,17600.0,10200.0,11800.0,9600.0,9200.0,9800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[22400.0,27800.0,18200.0,14100.0,13500.0,12800.0,13100.0,12400.0,11900.0,12600.0,13300.0,14200.0,13900.0,14800.0,12700.0,11800.0,12200.0,11600.0,12100.0,12500.0,13400.0,17800.0,21500.0,14900.0,13800.0,13100.0,14200.0,12900.0,20400.0,18700.0,14100.0,12600.0,13000.0,12200.0,11800.0,12400.0,12900.0,12300.0,11700.0,11100.0,11500.0,10800.0,11200.0,13400.0,12800.0,11500.0,10900.0,11300.0,11800.0,11200.0,10600.0,15900.0,16800.0,12400.0,11300.0,10800.0,10400.0,10900.0,10500.0,11100.0,11400.0,10800.0,11100.0,10500.0,10200.0,9800.0,10400.0,10100.0,10700.0,11200.0,11800.0,15400.0,14200.0,11900.0,12500.0,10800.0,11400.0,10600.0,11100.0,11800.0,16500.0,18300.0,15700.0,19100.0,27400.0,34600.0,43800.0,16200.0,14100.0,12900.0,13200.0,12700.0,13500.0,12800.0,12100.0,13300.0,13900.0,44500.0,36100.0,16800.0,14500.0,13200.0,12800.0,13700.0,16400.0,17900.0,14200.0,13500.0,14100.0,14800.0,13600.0,12300.0,12800.0,11900.0,12200.0,12000.0,12500.0,12700.0,12100.0,12600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[5200.0,6500.0,4300.0,3700.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3800.0,3300.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3000.0,5200.0,3400.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2800.0,2800.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2800.0,2600.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2600.0,2600.0,2400.0,2700.0,2300.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,3400.0,3800.0,3500.0,3400.0,5200.0,5000.0,6500.0,3000.0,2700.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,2400.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[95000.0,105000.0,65000.0,48000.0,47000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,40000.0,44000.0,48000.0,45000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,42000.0,60000.0,48000.0,52000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,65000.0,75000.0,48000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,42000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,42000.0,38000.0,35000.0,34000.0,38000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,75000.0,80000.0,50000.0,50000.0,42000.0,42000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0,40000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,36000.0,65000.0,62000.0,45000.0,45000.0,38000.0,37000.0,35000.0,36000.0,38000.0,52000.0,65000.0,60000.0,75000.0,150000.0,130000.0,140000.0,60000.0,52000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,48000.0,42000.0,42000.0,38000.0,42000.0,38000.0,36000.0,42000.0,45000.0,62000.0,55000.0,45000.0,48000.0,40000.0,58000.0,45000.0,40000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,36000.0,36000.0,35000.0,38000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5500.0,6800.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,5000.0,11000.0,12500.0,8200.0,4100.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,4200.0,9000.0,10500.0,5200.0,4300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,6000.0,4300.0,3500.0,4600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3800.0,6500.0,4000.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,3800.0,4200.0,5000.0,8000.0,6500.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,4200.0,3500.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,6000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3900.0,9000.0,8500.0,6500.0,7000.0,12000.0,13000.0,9000.0,3800.0,4000.0,3600.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,4800.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,5500.0,8500.0,5500.0,4000.0,3600.0,4000.0,7500.0,4200.0,4000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3300.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[1384.0,2147.0,1322.0,1089.0,1034.0,987.0,1012.0,996.0,1104.0,1078.0,1123.0,1045.0,1072.0,1189.0,1023.0,978.0,1015.0,963.0,1008.0,987.0,1034.0,1198.0,1964.0,1287.0,1084.0,1121.0,978.0,945.0,1022.0,1768.0,1235.0,986.0,912.0,957.0,923.0,898.0,934.0,901.0,945.0,912.0,876.0,893.0,945.0,1187.0,1024.0,891.0,862.0,845.0,878.0,912.0,1189.0,1124.0,1028.0,856.0,823.0,845.0,1087.0,923.0,867.0,812.0,834.0,845.0,812.0,823.0,789.0,802.0,834.0,791.0,856.0,812.0,834.0,1023.0,823.0,798.0,765.0,742.0,771.0,734.0,758.0,789.0,1112.0,1458.0,1294.0,1237.0,1423.0,1689.0,1864.0,1098.0,856.0,812.0,789.0,802.0,814.0,783.0,756.0,734.0,762.0,748.0,734.0,712.0,698.0,723.0,689.0,702.0,778.0,1267.0,1094.0,789.0,723.0,698.0,1089.0,812.0,734.0,689.0,702.0,671.0,688.0,714.0,692.0,654.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[18400.0,17200.0,9800.0,6600.0,6100.0,5800.0,5700.0,6000.0,6300.0,6600.0,6900.0,9600.0,21600.0,14200.0,10400.0,6900.0,8200.0,10600.0,6400.0,6100.0,6300.0,6700.0,8900.0,7200.0,9200.0,8000.0,7000.0,6700.0,6500.0,10200.0,6800.0,6500.0,8600.0,6800.0,7100.0,7000.0,8800.0,9600.0,7200.0,6800.0,7800.0,6800.0,6600.0,9200.0,7000.0,7100.0,7200.0,7500.0,9800.0,8600.0,8200.0,13600.0,10200.0,7800.0,12400.0,8400.0,9800.0,7800.0,8000.0,8400.0,9200.0,8600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7600.0,7400.0,7300.0,7500.0,8000.0,8300.0,8800.0,15200.0,13600.0,11800.0,10200.0,8600.0,8800.0,9000.0,8800.0,9600.0,17800.0,15400.0,13200.0,13800.0,22800.0,21000.0,17600.0,10200.0,9200.0,8800.0,8600.0,9000.0,9600.0,9800.0,10200.0,10800.0,12400.0,11000.0,10200.0,9600.0,10000.0,9200.0,9400.0,14200.0,10000.0,15600.0,13200.0,11000.0,16200.0,12600.0,15000.0,10800.0,9800.0,9200.0,11000.0,9400.0,10200.0,9400.0,9600.0,12000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[1600.0,2400.0,2100.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,2200.0,9000.0,6000.0,4000.0,2500.0,2100.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,3800.0,3000.0,2100.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1800.0,1900.0,3200.0,2200.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,2600.0,2000.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,3000.0,2600.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,4000.0,3000.0,2600.0,4500.0,4000.0,3500.0,2400.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,2600.0,1900.0,2600.0,2200.0,1900.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0],"meta/muse-ember":[13800.0,16200.0,11500.0,9800.0,13500.0,11800.0,9200.0,8700.0,11200.0,14500.0,10400.0,9600.0,10200.0,10800.0,9500.0,13200.0,11600.0,9800.0,9100.0,9400.0,10100.0,17500.0,15800.0,10900.0,10500.0,10200.0,9800.0,11000.0,16800.0,18500.0,12400.0,10600.0,10900.0,11300.0,12800.0,11000.0,11000.0,10700.0,11200.0,11800.0,11500.0,10800.0,10200.0,15600.0,12300.0,11800.0,11200.0,10800.0,12200.0,11800.0,17500.0,21500.0,19800.0,16500.0,12800.0,12200.0,12600.0,12400.0,12000.0,12800.0,12500.0,12200.0,12800.0,12400.0,13200.0,12600.0,12000.0,12400.0,16500.0,15800.0,14200.0,22000.0,17500.0,14500.0,15200.0,13500.0,13800.0,13200.0,12800.0,13400.0,19500.0,24800.0,20500.0,19800.0,28500.0,22800.0,25500.0,17800.0,19500.0,18200.0,15500.0,15000.0,15800.0,15200.0,14800.0,15500.0,15800.0,16800.0,18200.0,15500.0,22500.0,17800.0,15800.0,15200.0,20500.0,24800.0,21500.0,18500.0,19000.0,17500.0,19500.0,105000.0,62000.0,30000.0,22000.0,26000.0,32000.0,28500.0,22500.0,20500.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[9250.0,14340.0,7160.0,2800.0,1710.0,1710.0,1530.0,1530.0,1890.0,1980.0,1890.0,1620.0,6000.0,5600.0,2400.0,2000.0,4400.0,3900.0,1700.0,1700.0,2100.0,2200.0,3600.0,1800.0,2625.0,2730.0,2520.0,2100.0,1995.0,3495.0,2785.0,1785.0,2205.0,2310.0,2205.0,3390.0,3675.0,3490.0,2760.0,2300.0,2185.0,2185.0,1955.0,1955.0,2415.0,2530.0,2415.0,3570.0,4375.0,5010.0,4040.0,3500.0,3365.0,3365.0,2295.0,2295.0,2835.0,2970.0,2835.0,2430.0,3750.0,3900.0,3600.0,3000.0,2850.0,2850.0,2550.0,2550.0,3150.0,3300.0,3150.0,6700.0,6375.0,4030.0,3720.0,3100.0,2945.0,2945.0,2635.0,2635.0,5755.0,7410.0,6755.0,5790.0,8750.0,10900.0,9600.0,5000.0,4350.0,3650.0,2550.0,2550.0,3150.0,3300.0,3150.0,2700.0,3500.0,3640.0,3360.0,2800.0,2660.0,2660.0,2380.0,3880.0,5940.0,7580.0,5440.0,4520.0,4750.0,4380.0,3120.0,2600.0,2470.0,2470.0,4710.0,5710.0,6230.0,4360.0,2730.0,2340.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[1180.0,470.0,430.0,410.0,450.0,610.0,430.0,390.0,420.0,450.0,470.0,540.0,510.0,440.0,470.0,450.0,500.0,530.0,480.0,420.0,460.0,490.0,510.0,570.0,530.0,460.0,480.0,470.0,520.0,550.0,500.0,440.0,490.0,510.0,530.0,590.0,560.0,490.0,520.0,510.0,570.0,610.0,580.0,640.0,800.0,720.0,780.0,2100.0,1650.0,680.0,590.0,540.0,600.0,950.0,630.0,580.0,610.0,640.0,670.0,740.0,750.0,670.0,620.0,640.0,680.0,700.0,650.0,610.0,650.0,690.0,740.0,920.0,780.0,670.0,680.0,720.0,780.0,800.0,720.0,680.0,710.0,750.0,780.0,850.0,830.0,760.0,1450.0,4100.0,2100.0,1150.0,830.0,760.0,800.0,850.0,900.0,1000.0,900.0,800.0,830.0,870.0,890.0,900.0,820.0,780.0,810.0,860.0,910.0,970.0,920.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,930.0,950.0,860.0,810.0,840.0,880.0,920.0,980.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1900.0,2100.0,1700.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1400.0,1400.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1300.0,1300.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1200.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,900.0,900.0,900.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,1000.0,1300.0,1500.0,1200.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1000.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,900.0,900.0,950.0,950.0,950.0,950.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[480.0,590.0,660.0,550.0,700.0,520.0,500.0,540.0,590.0,560.0,600.0,470.0,550.0,640.0,720.0,600.0,740.0,570.0,540.0,600.0,660.0,630.0,670.0,520.0,610.0,720.0,800.0,670.0,820.0,650.0,620.0,680.0,750.0,710.0,750.0,580.0,700.0,830.0,900.0,750.0,930.0,720.0,690.0,750.0,820.0,780.0,820.0,640.0,800.0,920.0,1300.0,1220.0,1140.0,990.0,950.0,1020.0,1060.0,990.0,1030.0,840.0,940.0,1050.0,1120.0,950.0,1160.0,920.0,860.0,930.0,1010.0,1380.0,1560.0,1120.0,1020.0,1140.0,1220.0,1020.0,1260.0,980.0,940.0,1050.0,1560.0,2350.0,2020.0,1680.0,2250.0,2850.0,4100.0,2050.0,2350.0,1680.0,1450.0,1550.0,1780.0,1720.0,1900.0,1460.0,1560.0,1720.0,1630.0,1380.0,1960.0,1470.0,1350.0,1510.0,2250.0,2550.0,2120.0,1600.0,1480.0,1620.0,1420.0,1220.0,1500.0,1160.0,1080.0,1230.0,1350.0,1290.0,1210.0,1060.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[310.0,340.0,300.0,275.0,260.0,255.0,265.0,270.0,280.0,300.0,285.0,275.0,280.0,295.0,285.0,270.0,265.0,275.0,280.0,285.0,290.0,330.0,305.0,290.0,300.0,320.0,335.0,295.0,285.0,315.0,290.0,300.0,295.0,310.0,300.0,285.0,305.0,320.0,315.0,295.0,290.0,300.0,305.0,340.0,320.0,310.0,305.0,290.0,310.0,325.0,350.0,390.0,375.0,345.0,330.0,325.0,330.0,335.0,320.0,310.0,315.0,325.0,320.0,305.0,300.0,305.0,310.0,305.0,310.0,325.0,340.0,365.0,350.0,345.0,340.0,325.0,320.0,335.0,330.0,345.0,390.0,430.0,480.0,560.0,690.0,820.0,880.0,540.0,420.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,355.0,370.0,390.0,410.0,390.0,375.0,360.0,345.0,340.0,350.0,355.0,365.0,380.0,430.0,405.0,375.0,365.0,380.0,410.0,385.0,365.0,350.0,340.0,345.0,355.0,365.0,350.0,335.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[380.0,900.0,600.0,380.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,360.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,350.0,420.0,400.0,350.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,360.0,350.0,330.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,310.0,320.0,300.0,300.0,320.0,330.0,340.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,290.0,300.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,310.0,340.0,360.0,380.0,340.0,320.0,310.0,300.0,300.0,290.0,290.0,280.0,300.0,320.0,330.0,310.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,280.0,290.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,290.0,310.0,320.0,300.0,290.0,280.0,280.0,270.0,280.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,330.0,1100.0,1400.0,500.0,350.0,300.0,280.0,270.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,280.0,300.0,310.0,290.0,280.0,270.0,260.0,260.0,270.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,260.0,280.0,290.0,270.0,260.0,250.0,250.0,240.0,250.0,240.0,240.0,240.0]}},{"title":"Loch Ness Monster","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Loch Ness Monster\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[95354,80915,93850,148175,89175,78704,80048,72847,112309,85355,84174,69438,89157,79156,84767,95972,99250,84376,70980,78962,69823,75587,79276,70655,85277,73871,92057,87148,123786,86957,88771,99095,78676,80136,88330,71049,78640,82521,83947,97658,93659,90543,90743,87971,135459,82824,84193,67225,75990,84519,77529,105014,91466,107227,88950,84385,79901,94014,85335,81088,99514,85618,87909,95236,92152,82694,78436,82807,103255,85291,69411,62981,77205,69970,81905,100610,86151,75049,100992,99590,83140,84011,81515,66473,88027,83842,95080,85712,87768,89666,82635,206348,111161,87492,85312,72922,82547,75032,86563,93592,99006,80760,78028,75533,71568,77577,75670,72264,84134,64526,81883,76350,76303,62437,75844,77197,65055,67216,65721,57617],"flat_reference_value":16824.49454338165,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[82000.0,76000.0,85000.0,88000.0,95000.0,91000.0,105000.0,111000.0,90000.0,98000.0,85000.0,81000.0,83000.0,75000.0,83000.0,85000.0,98000.0,93000.0,103000.0,108000.0,92000.0,99000.0,84000.0,80000.0,81000.0,74000.0,82000.0,85000.0,97000.0,96000.0,104000.0,109000.0,90000.0,99000.0,83000.0,79000.0,80000.0,73000.0,81000.0,83000.0,90000.0,94000.0,103000.0,108000.0,210000.0,110000.0,85000.0,79000.0,80000.0,75000.0,87000.0,92000.0,95000.0,90000.0,98000.0,102000.0,85000.0,97000.0,81000.0,78000.0,82000.0,75000.0,83000.0,84000.0,89000.0,89000.0,101000.0,105000.0,87000.0,98000.0,82000.0,79000.0,80000.0,73000.0,81000.0,83000.0,90000.0,88000.0,100000.0,105000.0,86000.0,97000.0,81000.0,77000.0,79000.0,72000.0,80000.0,85000.0,110000.0,92000.0,105000.0,250000.0,130000.0,100000.0,81000.0,77000.0,78000.0,73000.0,79000.0,98000.0,102000.0,87000.0,97000.0,109000.0,85000.0,95000.0,79000.0,75000.0,77000.0,70000.0,78000.0,80000.0,87000.0,85000.0,97000.0,102000.0,83000.0,94000.0,78000.0,74000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[138000.0,129000.0,141000.0,236000.0,148000.0,134000.0,142000.0,146000.0,132000.0,139000.0,131000.0,118000.0,135000.0,126000.0,142000.0,145000.0,140000.0,131000.0,138000.0,144000.0,128000.0,136000.0,134000.0,116000.0,132000.0,121000.0,138000.0,141000.0,164000.0,158000.0,141000.0,147000.0,129000.0,135000.0,127000.0,114000.0,131000.0,122000.0,139000.0,144000.0,137000.0,133000.0,140000.0,146000.0,392000.0,158000.0,132000.0,119000.0,134000.0,126000.0,148000.0,168000.0,159000.0,145000.0,147000.0,149000.0,136000.0,141000.0,133000.0,138000.0,142000.0,128000.0,139000.0,143000.0,135000.0,127000.0,134000.0,138000.0,124000.0,129000.0,121000.0,111000.0,126000.0,115000.0,128000.0,134000.0,126000.0,119000.0,127000.0,131000.0,118000.0,123000.0,116000.0,105000.0,119000.0,109000.0,122000.0,127000.0,118000.0,114000.0,125000.0,315000.0,154000.0,118000.0,109000.0,98000.0,111000.0,102000.0,114000.0,119000.0,132000.0,124000.0,113000.0,118000.0,104000.0,108000.0,99000.0,91000.0,102000.0,94000.0,105000.0,109000.0,116000.0,103000.0,107000.0,112000.0,97000.0,101000.0,93000.0,86000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[118000.0,112000.0,115000.0,126000.0,122000.0,128000.0,139000.0,135000.0,114000.0,121000.0,111000.0,105000.0,112000.0,104000.0,111000.0,117000.0,115000.0,124000.0,131000.0,129000.0,110000.0,119000.0,106000.0,101000.0,108000.0,99000.0,107000.0,113000.0,138000.0,154000.0,133000.0,128000.0,109000.0,114000.0,102000.0,96000.0,103000.0,97000.0,105000.0,112000.0,110000.0,122000.0,145000.0,162000.0,465000.0,168000.0,116000.0,102000.0,107000.0,98000.0,118000.0,142000.0,135000.0,127000.0,129000.0,124000.0,111000.0,116000.0,103000.0,97000.0,104000.0,95000.0,102000.0,108000.0,105000.0,112000.0,121000.0,119000.0,101000.0,109000.0,96000.0,91000.0,98000.0,89000.0,97000.0,101000.0,104000.0,110000.0,124000.0,118000.0,100000.0,107000.0,94000.0,88000.0,95000.0,87000.0,94000.0,99000.0,102000.0,108000.0,117000.0,378000.0,164000.0,112000.0,95000.0,89000.0,93000.0,86000.0,92000.0,98000.0,101000.0,106000.0,114000.0,111000.0,95000.0,102000.0,90000.0,84000.0,89000.0,82000.0,88000.0,93000.0,96000.0,102000.0,109000.0,107000.0,91000.0,98000.0,86000.0,81000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[108000.0,102000.0,110000.0,165000.0,112000.0,108000.0,118000.0,120000.0,105000.0,108000.0,100000.0,95000.0,102000.0,96000.0,100000.0,98000.0,97000.0,96000.0,108000.0,112000.0,98000.0,102000.0,94000.0,88000.0,95000.0,90000.0,94000.0,92000.0,110000.0,105000.0,108000.0,110000.0,96000.0,98000.0,90000.0,84000.0,90000.0,86000.0,90000.0,88000.0,87000.0,88000.0,98000.0,102000.0,260000.0,115000.0,90000.0,82000.0,86000.0,82000.0,90000.0,98000.0,94000.0,88000.0,92000.0,94000.0,84000.0,86000.0,80000.0,76000.0,80000.0,76000.0,78000.0,76000.0,74000.0,72000.0,80000.0,82000.0,72000.0,75000.0,70000.0,66000.0,70000.0,66000.0,68000.0,66000.0,65000.0,64000.0,70000.0,72000.0,64000.0,66000.0,62000.0,58000.0,62000.0,58000.0,60000.0,60000.0,59000.0,60000.0,72000.0,155000.0,75000.0,64000.0,58000.0,54000.0,58000.0,55000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,55000.0,60000.0,64000.0,56000.0,58000.0,53000.0,50000.0,53000.0,50000.0,52000.0,51000.0,50000.0,50000.0,55000.0,58000.0,51000.0,53000.0,49000.0,46000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[215000.0,200000.0,210000.0,290000.0,215000.0,200000.0,210000.0,215000.0,200000.0,210000.0,195000.0,190000.0,200000.0,180000.0,195000.0,190000.0,195000.0,185000.0,195000.0,200000.0,180000.0,190000.0,180000.0,175000.0,190000.0,170000.0,185000.0,180000.0,215000.0,200000.0,190000.0,190000.0,175000.0,185000.0,175000.0,170000.0,185000.0,170000.0,180000.0,180000.0,180000.0,175000.0,260000.0,210000.0,420000.0,210000.0,180000.0,170000.0,180000.0,165000.0,175000.0,200000.0,200000.0,195000.0,185000.0,180000.0,170000.0,180000.0,165000.0,165000.0,175000.0,160000.0,170000.0,160000.0,160000.0,150000.0,155000.0,160000.0,150000.0,160000.0,145000.0,145000.0,155000.0,140000.0,150000.0,145000.0,150000.0,140000.0,150000.0,150000.0,140000.0,150000.0,140000.0,140000.0,150000.0,135000.0,145000.0,140000.0,145000.0,140000.0,150000.0,330000.0,180000.0,150000.0,135000.0,135000.0,145000.0,130000.0,135000.0,130000.0,135000.0,130000.0,135000.0,140000.0,130000.0,135000.0,125000.0,125000.0,135000.0,120000.0,125000.0,120000.0,125000.0,120000.0,125000.0,130000.0,120000.0,125000.0,115000.0,115000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[92000.0,77000.0,87000.0,165000.0,104000.0,121000.0,156000.0,174000.0,109000.0,119000.0,91000.0,84000.0,83000.0,71000.0,79000.0,101000.0,92000.0,111000.0,147000.0,161000.0,99000.0,111000.0,85000.0,78000.0,80000.0,69000.0,78000.0,97000.0,111000.0,230000.0,152000.0,166000.0,104000.0,117000.0,87000.0,79000.0,82000.0,70000.0,79000.0,97000.0,90000.0,124000.0,149000.0,156000.0,420000.0,152000.0,94000.0,85000.0,89000.0,75000.0,118000.0,132000.0,121000.0,141000.0,174000.0,186000.0,114000.0,126000.0,96000.0,88000.0,87000.0,72000.0,81000.0,99000.0,94000.0,121000.0,154000.0,166000.0,104000.0,117000.0,89000.0,81000.0,84000.0,70000.0,80000.0,96000.0,89000.0,114000.0,149000.0,171000.0,101000.0,112000.0,87000.0,80000.0,85000.0,71000.0,81000.0,99000.0,94000.0,119000.0,190000.0,460000.0,200000.0,131000.0,94000.0,83000.0,96000.0,74000.0,84000.0,99000.0,93000.0,117000.0,148000.0,176000.0,104000.0,114000.0,89000.0,81000.0,83000.0,70000.0,79000.0,97000.0,91000.0,114000.0,146000.0,158000.0,99000.0,110000.0,87000.0,79000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[44200.0,41800.0,48100.0,66800.0,56300.0,59800.0,65400.0,70200.0,54300.0,57900.0,46800.0,43500.0,43800.0,42500.0,47500.0,51200.0,68200.0,69800.0,64800.0,69500.0,53800.0,57200.0,46200.0,43100.0,43400.0,41900.0,47100.0,50800.0,55600.0,92500.0,64200.0,68800.0,53500.0,56800.0,45900.0,42800.0,42900.0,41200.0,46500.0,50200.0,54800.0,58500.0,62800.0,67400.0,278300.0,105400.0,45200.0,42100.0,42500.0,41800.0,58200.0,63800.0,60500.0,57800.0,63500.0,68200.0,52800.0,56200.0,48300.0,45200.0,41800.0,40200.0,45800.0,49500.0,53800.0,56800.0,61500.0,67200.0,51200.0,54800.0,44200.0,41500.0,40900.0,39500.0,44900.0,48600.0,52900.0,55900.0,60800.0,66500.0,49800.0,53900.0,43500.0,40800.0,40200.0,38800.0,44100.0,47800.0,51800.0,54800.0,59700.0,345600.0,132800.0,68200.0,42800.0,39900.0,39500.0,38100.0,43300.0,46900.0,50900.0,78500.0,58500.0,62800.0,48200.0,52500.0,41500.0,39200.0,38800.0,37400.0,42500.0,46100.0,49800.0,52800.0,57200.0,61500.0,47400.0,51200.0,40800.0,38500.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[71000.0,68000.0,75000.0,84000.0,92000.0,102000.0,119000.0,128000.0,100000.0,88000.0,78000.0,75000.0,74000.0,71000.0,78000.0,88000.0,97000.0,105000.0,124000.0,133000.0,106000.0,92000.0,81000.0,78000.0,77000.0,74000.0,82000.0,91000.0,101000.0,110000.0,130000.0,139000.0,111000.0,96000.0,84000.0,82000.0,80000.0,78000.0,85000.0,95000.0,105000.0,115000.0,135000.0,145000.0,350000.0,133000.0,93000.0,85000.0,78000.0,76000.0,91000.0,105000.0,111000.0,111000.0,127000.0,137000.0,113000.0,98000.0,87000.0,83000.0,80000.0,77000.0,85000.0,94000.0,105000.0,116000.0,135000.0,146000.0,115000.0,100000.0,88000.0,85000.0,81000.0,79000.0,87000.0,97000.0,107000.0,118000.0,138000.0,148000.0,117000.0,102000.0,89000.0,87000.0,84000.0,82000.0,89000.0,100000.0,110000.0,121000.0,142000.0,300000.0,170000.0,117000.0,92000.0,89000.0,85000.0,82000.0,90000.0,101000.0,111000.0,122000.0,143000.0,176000.0,122000.0,106000.0,93000.0,90000.0,85000.0,81000.0,90000.0,100000.0,112000.0,121000.0,144000.0,180000.0,124000.0,105000.0,93000.0,89000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[56000.0,52000.0,57000.0,59000.0,62000.0,66000.0,71000.0,74000.0,64000.0,61000.0,58000.0,56000.0,58000.0,54000.0,59000.0,61000.0,64000.0,68000.0,73000.0,76000.0,66000.0,63000.0,60000.0,58000.0,60000.0,56000.0,61000.0,63000.0,70000.0,74000.0,78000.0,81000.0,70000.0,67000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,60000.0,65000.0,67000.0,70000.0,74000.0,79000.0,82000.0,150000.0,72000.0,69000.0,66000.0,68000.0,64000.0,69000.0,72000.0,75000.0,79000.0,84000.0,87000.0,76000.0,73000.0,70000.0,68000.0,66000.0,62000.0,67000.0,69000.0,72000.0,76000.0,81000.0,84000.0,73000.0,70000.0,67000.0,65000.0,64000.0,60000.0,65000.0,67000.0,70000.0,74000.0,79000.0,82000.0,71000.0,68000.0,65000.0,63000.0,66000.0,62000.0,67000.0,69000.0,72000.0,76000.0,81000.0,620000.0,78000.0,74000.0,71000.0,68000.0,65000.0,61000.0,66000.0,110000.0,73000.0,77000.0,82000.0,85000.0,74000.0,71000.0,68000.0,66000.0,63000.0,59000.0,64000.0,66000.0,69000.0,73000.0,78000.0,81000.0,70000.0,67000.0,64000.0,62000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[46400.0,47560.0,52200.0,55100.0,59740.0,73370.0,72500.0,75400.0,63800.0,55680.0,49300.0,48140.0,48000.0,49200.0,62100.0,61560.0,61800.0,69000.0,75000.0,85800.0,66000.0,57600.0,51000.0,49800.0,50400.0,51660.0,56700.0,59850.0,64890.0,85491.0,78750.0,81900.0,69300.0,60480.0,53550.0,52290.0,52800.0,54120.0,59400.0,62700.0,74778.0,94875.0,82500.0,85800.0,123420.0,72864.0,56100.0,54780.0,56000.0,57400.0,63000.0,79800.0,72100.0,80500.0,87500.0,109200.0,77000.0,67200.0,59500.0,58100.0,57600.0,59040.0,64800.0,68400.0,87509.0,82800.0,90000.0,102960.0,79200.0,69120.0,61200.0,59760.0,58400.0,59860.0,65700.0,69350.0,75190.0,96543.0,91250.0,94900.0,80300.0,70080.0,62050.0,60590.0,60800.0,62320.0,68400.0,72200.0,93936.0,87400.0,95000.0,167960.0,100320.0,72960.0,64600.0,63080.0,59200.0,60760.0,66600.0,70300.0,87653.0,85100.0,92500.0,107744.0,81400.0,71040.0,62900.0,61420.0,57600.0,59040.0,64800.0,68400.0,92700.0,82800.0,90000.0,102960.0,79200.0,69120.0,61200.0,59760.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[355000.0,335000.0,385000.0,420000.0,465000.0,510000.0,560000.0,575000.0,435000.0,410000.0,365000.0,345000.0,385000.0,360000.0,415000.0,455000.0,505000.0,555000.0,610000.0,625000.0,470000.0,445000.0,395000.0,375000.0,415000.0,390000.0,450000.0,490000.0,560000.0,640000.0,660000.0,675000.0,500000.0,470000.0,420000.0,400000.0,445000.0,420000.0,480000.0,525000.0,575000.0,630000.0,690000.0,705000.0,1850000.0,1050000.0,560000.0,480000.0,460000.0,435000.0,565000.0,605000.0,645000.0,705000.0,765000.0,745000.0,545000.0,505000.0,460000.0,440000.0,470000.0,445000.0,510000.0,560000.0,625000.0,685000.0,755000.0,775000.0,560000.0,520000.0,470000.0,450000.0,450000.0,425000.0,495000.0,545000.0,605000.0,665000.0,735000.0,755000.0,545000.0,505000.0,455000.0,435000.0,440000.0,415000.0,485000.0,535000.0,595000.0,655000.0,725000.0,1750000.0,950000.0,540000.0,465000.0,425000.0,415000.0,390000.0,455000.0,505000.0,565000.0,625000.0,695000.0,715000.0,505000.0,475000.0,425000.0,405000.0,385000.0,360000.0,425000.0,475000.0,535000.0,595000.0,665000.0,685000.0,475000.0,445000.0,400000.0,380000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[205000.0,190000.0,215000.0,240000.0,230000.0,245000.0,270000.0,265000.0,240000.0,225000.0,210000.0,200000.0,195000.0,180000.0,200000.0,225000.0,220000.0,380000.0,260000.0,250000.0,230000.0,210000.0,195000.0,185000.0,200000.0,185000.0,205000.0,230000.0,225000.0,240000.0,270000.0,265000.0,240000.0,225000.0,210000.0,200000.0,205000.0,195000.0,320000.0,1050000.0,340000.0,275000.0,300000.0,290000.0,265000.0,245000.0,225000.0,210000.0,215000.0,210000.0,285000.0,390000.0,480000.0,430000.0,440000.0,420000.0,375000.0,345000.0,305000.0,280000.0,270000.0,255000.0,290000.0,330000.0,345000.0,355000.0,395000.0,385000.0,355000.0,335000.0,300000.0,285000.0,300000.0,280000.0,320000.0,370000.0,360000.0,395000.0,435000.0,425000.0,390000.0,365000.0,335000.0,315000.0,330000.0,310000.0,355000.0,410000.0,1100000.0,800000.0,790000.0,775000.0,680000.0,620000.0,555000.0,505000.0,525000.0,495000.0,610000.0,2100000.0,980000.0,900000.0,960000.0,930000.0,840000.0,775000.0,710000.0,655000.0,640000.0,610000.0,670000.0,780000.0,750000.0,810000.0,870000.0,850000.0,780000.0,730000.0,675000.0,645000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[150000.0,145000.0,140000.0,135000.0,135000.0,140000.0,160000.0,170000.0,150000.0,140000.0,135000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,130000.0,125000.0,125000.0,130000.0,145000.0,150000.0,130000.0,120000.0,115000.0,120000.0,120000.0,115000.0,115000.0,115000.0,115000.0,120000.0,130000.0,135000.0,120000.0,115000.0,110000.0,115000.0,115000.0,110000.0,105000.0,105000.0,105000.0,110000.0,120000.0,125000.0,150000.0,125000.0,110000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,125000.0,125000.0,115000.0,115000.0,120000.0,120000.0,110000.0,105000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,100000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,95000.0,105000.0,105000.0,95000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,95000.0,90000.0,90000.0,88000.0,85000.0,88000.0,95000.0,98000.0,88000.0,85000.0,82000.0,85000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,90000.0,90000.0,95000.0,105000.0,135000.0,110000.0,95000.0,90000.0,90000.0,92000.0,88000.0,85000.0,85000.0,82000.0,85000.0,95000.0,95000.0,85000.0,80000.0,78000.0,80000.0,85000.0,80000.0,80000.0,78000.0,76000.0,78000.0,88000.0,90000.0,80000.0,75000.0,72000.0,75000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[57600.0,53760.0,64000.0,66560.0,70400.0,78080.0,84480.0,83200.0,65720.0,90400.0,58880.0,51200.0,54900.0,51240.0,61000.0,63440.0,67100.0,74420.0,80520.0,79300.0,59780.0,88350.0,56120.0,48800.0,54000.0,50400.0,60000.0,62400.0,66000.0,73200.0,81700.0,78000.0,58800.0,84000.0,55200.0,48000.0,55800.0,52080.0,62000.0,64480.0,73200.0,78640.0,81840.0,80600.0,60760.0,87700.0,57040.0,49600.0,54000.0,50400.0,60000.0,70400.0,74000.0,80200.0,82200.0,79000.0,56800.0,86000.0,53200.0,51000.0,61200.0,57120.0,68000.0,86720.0,84800.0,90960.0,89760.0,88400.0,66640.0,91800.0,62560.0,54400.0,57200.0,48720.0,58000.0,60320.0,63800.0,70760.0,76560.0,75400.0,56840.0,78300.0,53360.0,46400.0,49500.0,46200.0,55000.0,57200.0,60500.0,67100.0,72600.0,71500.0,53900.0,81250.0,50600.0,44000.0,46800.0,43680.0,52000.0,54080.0,57200.0,69440.0,68640.0,69600.0,50960.0,70200.0,47840.0,41600.0,45000.0,47000.0,50000.0,58000.0,55000.0,61000.0,66000.0,65000.0,49000.0,67500.0,46000.0,40000.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[18500.0,17800.0,19200.0,19500.0,20700.0,22100.0,24100.0,25900.0,22000.0,20100.0,18400.0,19000.0,17900.0,17100.0,18500.0,18800.0,19900.0,21500.0,23100.0,24600.0,21100.0,19400.0,17700.0,18300.0,17400.0,16800.0,18100.0,18500.0,19800.0,21400.0,23500.0,25200.0,21700.0,19600.0,18000.0,18700.0,17800.0,17000.0,18600.0,19100.0,20500.0,22500.0,24900.0,32100.0,44600.0,25800.0,19500.0,20200.0,18200.0,17400.0,19000.0,18600.0,19800.0,21100.0,22400.0,23900.0,20900.0,19000.0,17500.0,18100.0,16900.0,16300.0,17600.0,18000.0,19300.0,20700.0,22100.0,23800.0,20400.0,18600.0,17100.0,17800.0,16600.0,16000.0,17400.0,17800.0,19000.0,20400.0,21900.0,23600.0,20300.0,18400.0,16900.0,17600.0,16700.0,16000.0,17400.0,17800.0,19400.0,21200.0,25500.0,78200.0,43800.0,22100.0,17400.0,18100.0,16400.0,15700.0,17100.0,17500.0,18800.0,20200.0,21600.0,23200.0,20000.0,18100.0,16600.0,17300.0,16000.0,15300.0,16700.0,17100.0,18400.0,19800.0,21200.0,22800.0,19600.0,17700.0,16200.0,16900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[81000.0,81000.0,90000.0,109000.0,95000.0,95000.0,105000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,90000.0,86000.0,78000.0,78000.0,87000.0,106000.0,92000.0,92000.0,101000.0,101000.0,92000.0,92000.0,87000.0,83000.0,75000.0,75000.0,84000.0,101000.0,88000.0,88000.0,97000.0,97000.0,88000.0,88000.0,200000.0,79000.0,68000.0,68000.0,76000.0,92000.0,80000.0,80000.0,88000.0,88000.0,80000.0,80000.0,76000.0,72000.0,66000.0,66000.0,74000.0,90000.0,78000.0,78000.0,86000.0,86000.0,78000.0,78000.0,74000.0,70000.0,60000.0,60000.0,66000.0,81000.0,70000.0,70000.0,77000.0,77000.0,70000.0,70000.0,66000.0,63000.0,53000.0,53000.0,59000.0,71000.0,62000.0,62000.0,68000.0,68000.0,62000.0,62000.0,59000.0,56000.0,48000.0,48000.0,53000.0,64000.0,56000.0,56000.0,62000.0,62000.0,56000.0,56000.0,53000.0,50000.0,43000.0,43000.0,48000.0,58000.0,50000.0,50000.0,55000.0,55000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,45000.0,36000.0,36000.0,40000.0,48000.0,42000.0,42000.0,46000.0,46000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0]}},{"title":"Flashdance... What a Feeling","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Flashdance... What a Feeling\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[8202,6992,7071,8014,6864,6539,6769,6346,6302,7221,6301,6493,7340,7996,8352,7657,7732,7010,6996,7778,7249,6409,6436,6190,7252,7714,8053,7512,8027,7910,6900,7132,6315,6308,6654,6247,6925,6688,7267,6981,7297,6813,7325,7611,6851,7001,6260,6404,8135,7706,9307,10863,8335,7166,7465,7136,7186,7134,6137,5834,7342,8014,7756,6986,7310,6456,6910,7099,6362,6409,6235,6072,7140,7567,8599,7613,11280,8328,8928,8212,7761,8141,52974,16162,11462,10929,11035,9466,9587,10179,10085,9392,9654,10000,9380,9855,11288,13571,12742,11098,9716,8979,8617,8412,9045,8145,7900,8269,9268,7763,8465,7318,8132,6746,7382,7610,7134,6933,6719,6661],"flat_reference_value":17028.885531618016,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[8200.0,7600.0,8900.0,8500.0,8100.0,7900.0,8400.0,8700.0,7800.0,8100.0,7900.0,8800.0,9100.0,8000.0,9400.0,9000.0,8700.0,8400.0,9200.0,9500.0,8500.0,8800.0,8500.0,9300.0,9600.0,8500.0,10200.0,9900.0,9200.0,9000.0,9800.0,10100.0,9200.0,9500.0,9200.0,10100.0,10200.0,9300.0,10900.0,10200.0,9800.0,9600.0,10400.0,10700.0,9900.0,10200.0,9800.0,10700.0,10900.0,9900.0,12000.0,12800.0,11600.0,10800.0,11300.0,11600.0,10600.0,11000.0,10600.0,11500.0,11600.0,10300.0,11700.0,11100.0,10700.0,10400.0,11200.0,11500.0,10600.0,11000.0,10600.0,11500.0,11800.0,10500.0,12100.0,11400.0,11000.0,10700.0,11500.0,11900.0,10900.0,11400.0,95000.0,52000.0,21000.0,15000.0,19000.0,26000.0,19000.0,15000.0,14500.0,14300.0,12800.0,13200.0,13400.0,13500.0,13300.0,11800.0,13700.0,12700.0,12200.0,11900.0,12700.0,13000.0,11900.0,12300.0,12000.0,12900.0,13200.0,11700.0,13500.0,12600.0,12100.0,11800.0,12600.0,12900.0,11800.0,12200.0,11900.0,12800.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[12800.0,13100.0,12900.0,12200.0,11900.0,11500.0,12100.0,11800.0,11200.0,11600.0,11400.0,12000.0,12700.0,13400.0,12800.0,12100.0,11900.0,11600.0,12200.0,11900.0,11300.0,11700.0,11500.0,12100.0,12900.0,13600.0,13500.0,12700.0,16800.0,13400.0,12500.0,12200.0,11600.0,11900.0,11800.0,12300.0,13100.0,13800.0,13000.0,12300.0,12100.0,11800.0,12400.0,12300.0,11700.0,12000.0,11900.0,12500.0,13300.0,13900.0,13800.0,15200.0,14900.0,13800.0,13600.0,13400.0,12600.0,12800.0,12700.0,13200.0,13900.0,13100.0,13600.0,13800.0,12900.0,12400.0,12800.0,12600.0,11900.0,12200.0,12000.0,12600.0,13200.0,12800.0,13700.0,12600.0,12400.0,12300.0,13100.0,12800.0,11900.0,12100.0,94500.0,32400.0,18200.0,21500.0,22800.0,18600.0,15200.0,13900.0,14100.0,13600.0,12700.0,12900.0,14800.0,13400.0,13800.0,24600.0,15400.0,13100.0,12600.0,12100.0,12500.0,12300.0,11500.0,11800.0,12200.0,12400.0,12900.0,12600.0,13200.0,11900.0,11600.0,11300.0,11800.0,11600.0,10900.0,11200.0,11500.0,11900.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[18450.0,21320.0,20110.0,17890.0,17240.0,16580.0,17920.0,18340.0,16750.0,17410.0,16980.0,18620.0,18120.0,20450.0,19230.0,17650.0,16890.0,16320.0,17400.0,16950.0,16120.0,16800.0,17230.0,18540.0,17980.0,20870.0,21450.0,22610.0,18340.0,17420.0,18190.0,17630.0,16890.0,17560.0,17120.0,19040.0,18670.0,21300.0,19820.0,17940.0,17250.0,16780.0,17340.0,17110.0,16420.0,17050.0,17680.0,18910.0,18530.0,21470.0,23650.0,25890.0,24710.0,21340.0,20820.0,20150.0,19340.0,19860.0,19210.0,20740.0,19680.0,21540.0,20310.0,19120.0,18450.0,17930.0,18670.0,18230.0,17560.0,18090.0,18740.0,20120.0,19450.0,21890.0,22100.0,19320.0,18760.0,17980.0,18540.0,18210.0,17630.0,18410.0,142800.0,68450.0,31250.0,24890.0,23410.0,26180.0,21340.0,19870.0,20560.0,19940.0,19120.0,19780.0,20450.0,22130.0,20890.0,22740.0,22150.0,20340.0,19650.0,18920.0,19810.0,19230.0,18670.0,19340.0,19980.0,21450.0,20310.0,22100.0,21540.0,19890.0,19250.0,18710.0,19480.0,19050.0,18420.0,19160.0,19740.0,21200.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[18500.0,17800.0,18900.0,18600.0,18200.0,17400.0,17000.0,16800.0,16500.0,17000.0,17200.0,17600.0,17800.0,16900.0,17500.0,17200.0,16900.0,16200.0,16000.0,15800.0,15500.0,16000.0,16100.0,16400.0,16600.0,15800.0,16400.0,16100.0,15800.0,15200.0,15000.0,14800.0,14600.0,15000.0,15100.0,15400.0,15600.0,14800.0,15300.0,15100.0,14800.0,14300.0,14100.0,14000.0,13800.0,14200.0,14300.0,14600.0,14800.0,14200.0,15500.0,16800.0,15900.0,14600.0,14200.0,13900.0,13500.0,13800.0,13700.0,14000.0,14100.0,13400.0,13800.0,13500.0,13200.0,12700.0,12500.0,12400.0,12200.0,12500.0,12600.0,12900.0,13000.0,12400.0,12800.0,12500.0,12200.0,11800.0,11600.0,11500.0,11300.0,11700.0,125000.0,48000.0,19500.0,14500.0,13800.0,14200.0,12900.0,12200.0,11800.0,11600.0,11300.0,11600.0,12400.0,11900.0,11800.0,11200.0,11500.0,11300.0,11000.0,10600.0,10400.0,10300.0,10100.0,10400.0,10700.0,10600.0,10600.0,10000.0,10300.0,10100.0,9900.0,9500.0,9300.0,9200.0,9000.0,9300.0,9600.0,9500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,8800.0,8700.0,8500.0,8600.0,8700.0,8300.0,8500.0,8600.0,9000.0,9400.0,8700.0,8900.0,8600.0,8600.0,8300.0,8500.0,8600.0,8200.0,8400.0,8500.0,8900.0,9300.0,8600.0,8800.0,8700.0,8600.0,8300.0,8500.0,8600.0,8200.0,8400.0,8600.0,9000.0,9300.0,8600.0,8900.0,8700.0,8800.0,8500.0,8700.0,8800.0,8400.0,8600.0,8700.0,9100.0,9500.0,9000.0,9800.0,11000.0,10800.0,9800.0,9600.0,9500.0,9000.0,9100.0,9200.0,9600.0,10000.0,9300.0,9500.0,9200.0,9100.0,8800.0,8900.0,8900.0,8500.0,8600.0,8700.0,9000.0,9300.0,8700.0,8900.0,8700.0,8700.0,8600.0,8700.0,8700.0,8400.0,8600.0,75000.0,27000.0,13500.0,11800.0,11500.0,11200.0,11000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10500.0,10000.0,10000.0,10500.0,10500.0,10800.0,10200.0,10200.0,10000.0,10000.0,9700.0,9800.0,9800.0,9400.0,9500.0,9700.0,10000.0,10300.0,9700.0,9900.0,9800.0,9900.0,9600.0,9700.0,9700.0,9300.0,9400.0,9500.0,9800.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5400.0,5700.0,5300.0,5100.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5100.0,5800.0,5300.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5000.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5900.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4900.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5000.0,4900.0,4900.0,5700.0,5200.0,5100.0,5000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4800.0,4900.0,4900.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5700.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,5400.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,4400.0,4400.0,4500.0,5400.0,4400.0,4400.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4300.0,4400.0,210000.0,62000.0,26000.0,15500.0,11500.0,10500.0,8800.0,7300.0,6300.0,5800.0,5500.0,5300.0,6900.0,5700.0,5100.0,5300.0,6400.0,5300.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4700.0,4800.0,4700.0,5700.0,5000.0,4800.0,4900.0,5700.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4600.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,5300.0,4800.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[13845.0,13210.0,12673.0,11983.0,13074.0,11540.0,12402.0,12918.0,11876.0,12555.0,11702.0,14213.0,13012.0,12687.0,11834.0,11209.0,12345.0,10987.0,11752.0,12218.0,11054.0,11973.0,10842.0,13408.0,11492.0,11635.0,12401.0,10278.0,11092.0,9984.0,10763.0,11245.0,10132.0,10987.0,9987.0,12276.0,11230.0,10954.0,10218.0,9832.0,10611.0,9412.0,10045.0,10483.0,9518.0,10294.0,9427.0,11592.0,11786.0,11532.0,13942.0,14418.0,13107.0,10124.0,10789.0,11132.0,10087.0,10842.0,9983.0,12154.0,10471.0,8874.0,11268.0,11304.0,9872.0,9035.0,9724.0,10058.0,9187.0,9912.0,9044.0,11120.0,9812.0,9458.0,11124.0,8843.0,9237.0,8521.0,9088.0,9421.0,8612.0,9275.0,93417.0,41258.0,14832.0,10647.0,12183.0,8791.0,8324.0,7742.0,8128.0,8493.0,7821.0,8345.0,10276.0,9458.0,8391.0,8452.0,9184.0,7238.0,7683.0,7027.0,7462.0,7918.0,7135.0,7654.0,8821.0,8643.0,7642.0,7783.0,8317.0,6884.0,7251.0,6648.0,7093.0,7426.0,6752.0,7189.0,7984.0,8197.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[9600.0,9100.0,9500.0,10800.0,10200.0,10400.0,9300.0,8900.0,9400.0,9800.0,9600.0,10700.0,9900.0,9400.0,9800.0,11100.0,10500.0,10700.0,9600.0,9200.0,9800.0,10100.0,10000.0,11100.0,10400.0,9900.0,10400.0,12700.0,11500.0,11200.0,10100.0,9700.0,10300.0,10700.0,10600.0,11800.0,11000.0,10400.0,10900.0,12200.0,11400.0,11100.0,10000.0,9700.0,10400.0,10900.0,10800.0,12000.0,11600.0,11000.0,12600.0,14400.0,13500.0,13100.0,12000.0,11600.0,12400.0,12900.0,12800.0,14100.0,13200.0,12600.0,13100.0,14400.0,13600.0,13200.0,12100.0,11800.0,12500.0,13100.0,13000.0,14300.0,13500.0,12900.0,13400.0,14900.0,14100.0,13700.0,12600.0,12200.0,13000.0,13600.0,66000.0,26000.0,18000.0,16200.0,15600.0,18800.0,16100.0,14900.0,13600.0,13100.0,13800.0,14200.0,16600.0,15100.0,13900.0,13300.0,13700.0,15300.0,14200.0,13600.0,12500.0,12100.0,12800.0,13300.0,14400.0,13700.0,13100.0,12600.0,12900.0,14600.0,13500.0,12900.0,11900.0,11600.0,12300.0,12800.0,13800.0,13100.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2800.0,2600.0,2700.0,3000.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,2500.0,2600.0,2900.0,2700.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2400.0,2500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2700.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2700.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,110000.0,35000.0,14000.0,9000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6000.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,4500.0,5500.0,4800.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4300.0,5000.0,4500.0,4500.0,4200.0,4200.0,4500.0,4200.0,3900.0,3800.0,3800.0,4000.0,4100.0,4700.0,4300.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2880.0,2750.0,3150.0,3350.0,3280.0,3420.0,3550.0,3480.0,3120.0,3050.0,3080.0,2950.0,2820.0,2700.0,3050.0,3180.0,3220.0,3300.0,3380.0,3150.0,3000.0,2920.0,2850.0,2780.0,2700.0,2620.0,2950.0,3080.0,3050.0,3180.0,3250.0,3100.0,2950.0,2800.0,2750.0,2680.0,2650.0,2550.0,4100.0,2950.0,3000.0,3080.0,3150.0,2980.0,2850.0,2720.0,2680.0,2600.0,2580.0,2500.0,3900.0,3650.0,3200.0,3250.0,3350.0,3150.0,2920.0,2780.0,2720.0,2680.0,2600.0,2520.0,2850.0,2980.0,2950.0,3050.0,3120.0,2980.0,2820.0,2700.0,2650.0,2580.0,2550.0,2480.0,2780.0,2900.0,2880.0,2980.0,3050.0,3400.0,2850.0,2720.0,24500.0,9800.0,6400.0,7200.0,4300.0,4800.0,4600.0,3500.0,3550.0,3350.0,3050.0,2900.0,4700.0,3200.0,2850.0,2780.0,3050.0,3150.0,3100.0,3180.0,3250.0,3080.0,2920.0,2800.0,3400.0,2750.0,2680.0,2600.0,2950.0,3020.0,2980.0,3050.0,3120.0,2950.0,2800.0,2720.0,3600.0,2680.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3800.0,4500.0,4700.0,4000.0,4400.0,4600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3700.0,4000.0,4100.0,4500.0,4000.0,4700.0,4900.0,4200.0,4600.0,4800.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,4200.0,4300.0,4700.0,4300.0,5000.0,5200.0,4500.0,6200.0,6600.0,4400.0,4200.0,4200.0,4500.0,4600.0,5000.0,4500.0,5200.0,5400.0,4700.0,5100.0,5400.0,4600.0,4400.0,4400.0,4700.0,4800.0,5300.0,4700.0,5200.0,6000.0,7200.0,6800.0,5900.0,4900.0,4600.0,4600.0,4900.0,5000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5500.0,5700.0,5300.0,5600.0,5900.0,5200.0,5000.0,5000.0,5300.0,5400.0,5900.0,5300.0,5900.0,6100.0,5600.0,6000.0,6300.0,5600.0,5400.0,5400.0,5700.0,38000.0,22000.0,14500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13500.0,17500.0,21500.0,14000.0,10800.0,9200.0,8700.0,8500.0,9300.0,7800.0,8200.0,8000.0,7300.0,7600.0,7900.0,7100.0,6800.0,6700.0,7000.0,6800.0,7400.0,6700.0,7100.0,6900.0,6300.0,6500.0,6700.0,6000.0,5800.0,5700.0,5900.0,5800.0,6300.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4200.0,3950.0,3800.0,3650.0,3450.0,3250.0,3100.0,2980.0,2900.0,3020.0,3220.0,3550.0,3430.0,3270.0,3130.0,3020.0,2900.0,2790.0,2690.0,2610.0,2560.0,2620.0,2730.0,2920.0,2860.0,2740.0,2640.0,2540.0,2450.0,2370.0,2300.0,2240.0,2190.0,2220.0,2310.0,2480.0,2400.0,2300.0,2220.0,2140.0,2080.0,2020.0,1970.0,1930.0,1900.0,1940.0,2010.0,2160.0,2110.0,2040.0,1980.0,1940.0,1910.0,1880.0,1860.0,1850.0,1850.0,1890.0,1960.0,2090.0,2050.0,2000.0,1970.0,1950.0,1940.0,1930.0,1930.0,1950.0,1990.0,2050.0,2140.0,2290.0,2250.0,2500.0,2700.0,2950.0,3500.0,3300.0,2850.0,2600.0,2500.0,2650.0,46000.0,28000.0,34000.0,18000.0,48000.0,108000.0,61000.0,33000.0,18500.0,12000.0,8500.0,6500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4100.0,4100.0,6500.0,5100.0,5300.0,4300.0,3500.0,3100.0,2850.0,2850.0,3100.0,3300.0,3150.0,3000.0,3500.0,3250.0,3050.0,2900.0,2800.0,2700.0,2750.0,2850.0,3150.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1400.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1350.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1300.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,7500.0,3200.0,2000.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1350.0,1400.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0,1300.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1150.0,1150.0,1150.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1200.0,1250.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[27438.0,25216.0,28671.0,26309.0,25542.0,24728.0,27156.0,29348.0,28234.0,30512.0,29385.0,31724.0,32051.0,29476.0,31389.0,27891.0,27104.0,25812.0,28074.0,30721.0,29938.0,33208.0,31946.0,34421.0,35067.0,32741.0,34918.0,30610.0,29422.0,28148.0,29876.0,32244.0,31672.0,35278.0,33922.0,36431.0,36835.0,33799.0,36427.0,31762.0,30742.0,29479.0,32241.0,35164.0,34517.0,37921.0,36752.0,39318.0,40912.0,37845.0,47862.0,52437.0,46901.0,42873.0,45519.0,48766.0,47229.0,53004.0,50418.0,55203.0,57591.0,53988.0,56407.0,51239.0,49396.0,46558.0,49642.0,52390.0,51124.0,55729.0,53392.0,58284.0,60372.0,56955.0,59140.0,53923.0,51688.0,48797.0,52041.0,54874.0,53512.0,57852.0,61424.0,724559.0,204931.0,101248.0,98776.0,69854.0,46322.0,40187.0,36743.0,34266.0,31892.0,33418.0,64981.0,45872.0,41875.0,37429.0,39951.0,48627.0,39743.0,33982.0,31064.0,29318.0,28117.0,32436.0,52786.0,40251.0,38452.0,34208.0,36417.0,31859.0,28746.0,26033.0,27691.0,29854.0,27315.0,30782.0,45123.0,36947.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[850.0,790.0,810.0,780.0,820.0,760.0,790.0,820.0,900.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,800.0,780.0,820.0,760.0,790.0,770.0,810.0,830.0,880.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,810.0,760.0,780.0,750.0,790.0,820.0,850.0,880.0,830.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,800.0,750.0,770.0,740.0,780.0,810.0,850.0,870.0,820.0,790.0,780.0,790.0,850.0,900.0,820.0,800.0,820.0,830.0,880.0,900.0,850.0,810.0,800.0,780.0,820.0,790.0,810.0,780.0,800.0,830.0,870.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,810.0,790.0,830.0,800.0,820.0,790.0,830.0,900.0,950.0,1000.0,10500.0,2200.0,1200.0,950.0,900.0,850.0,820.0,800.0,820.0,850.0,900.0,920.0,880.0,840.0,820.0,800.0,830.0,790.0,810.0,780.0,810.0,840.0,880.0,900.0,860.0,830.0,810.0,790.0,820.0,780.0,800.0,770.0,800.0,830.0,870.0,890.0,850.0,820.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2310.0,2205.0,2205.0,2100.0,2058.0,1995.0,1932.0,1932.0,2100.0,2142.0,2163.0,2205.0,2148.0,2051.0,2051.0,1953.0,1914.0,1855.0,1797.0,1797.0,1953.0,1992.0,2012.0,2051.0,1998.0,1907.0,1907.0,1816.0,1780.0,1725.0,1671.0,1671.0,1816.0,1852.0,1871.0,1907.0,1858.0,1773.0,1773.0,1689.0,1655.0,1605.0,1554.0,1554.0,1689.0,1723.0,1740.0,1773.0,1870.0,1785.0,1900.0,1830.0,1790.0,1615.0,1564.0,1564.0,1700.0,1734.0,1751.0,1785.0,1607.0,1534.0,1534.0,1461.0,1432.0,1388.0,1344.0,1344.0,1461.0,1490.0,1505.0,1534.0,1495.0,1427.0,1427.0,1359.0,1332.0,1291.0,1250.0,1250.0,1359.0,1386.0,2600.0,1800.0,1390.0,1327.0,1327.0,1264.0,1239.0,1201.0,1163.0,1163.0,1264.0,1289.0,1302.0,1327.0,1294.0,1235.0,1235.0,1176.0,1152.0,1117.0,1082.0,1082.0,1176.0,1200.0,1211.0,1235.0,1202.0,1148.0,1148.0,1093.0,1071.0,1038.0,1006.0,1006.0,1093.0,1115.0,1126.0,1148.0]}},{"title":"List of men's magazines","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"List of men's magazines\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[23159,19026,18873,17185,15792,15186,15792,14630,15155,16372,16021,15431,16549,15233,15883,14738,14453,13709,14577,13993,16240,16063,14210,14457,15542,13003,14595,13407,12934,12909,13238,13402,12368,13128,12905,13596,14941,12365,12692,12394,12369,12399,12965,13303,12769,13121,13244,12966,13434,11715,12697,16266,14863,13501,12639,12103,11487,12178,12273,12257,12878,12695,13140,12179,12701,12371,13300,11464,10991,11858,11203,10658,11386,9258,10095,9638,9213,8602,9058,8933,8940,9666,9310,14054,10091,8352,9293,8941,9342,8961,10185,9401,9112,9013,8927,8554,8948,7922,7647,8150,8065,13214,8896,7730,7292,7449,8170,7168,7532,6360,6708,6323,6245,6002,6579,6631,5926,6163,6269,5933],"flat_reference_value":16998.47437436549,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[1450.0,1580.0,1490.0,1360.0,1320.0,1280.0,1250.0,1340.0,1390.0,1430.0,1350.0,1300.0,1400.0,1520.0,1430.0,1320.0,1350.0,1280.0,1260.0,1310.0,2150.0,1670.0,1360.0,1270.0,1390.0,1310.0,1370.0,1280.0,1300.0,1240.0,1210.0,1280.0,1300.0,1350.0,1270.0,1200.0,1330.0,1260.0,1320.0,1230.0,1260.0,1200.0,1190.0,1250.0,1270.0,1320.0,1230.0,1180.0,1300.0,1220.0,1400.0,1520.0,1410.0,1280.0,1260.0,1300.0,1280.0,1320.0,1250.0,1190.0,1290.0,1720.0,1350.0,1220.0,1250.0,1170.0,1150.0,1210.0,1240.0,1280.0,1190.0,1140.0,1250.0,1180.0,1230.0,1140.0,1170.0,1110.0,1090.0,1160.0,1180.0,1220.0,1140.0,1090.0,1200.0,1120.0,1170.0,1090.0,1120.0,1060.0,1040.0,1110.0,1120.0,1160.0,1090.0,1040.0,1140.0,1070.0,1120.0,1040.0,1070.0,1010.0,1000.0,1060.0,1080.0,1100.0,1040.0,990.0,1080.0,1010.0,1060.0,990.0,1020.0,960.0,950.0,1000.0,1020.0,1050.0,990.0,940.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[8150.0,8300.0,8100.0,7650.0,7750.0,7400.0,7550.0,7500.0,7150.0,7350.0,7100.0,7400.0,7600.0,7750.0,7450.0,7050.0,7150.0,6850.0,7000.0,6950.0,8100.0,8650.0,6900.0,6850.0,7050.0,6250.0,6700.0,6350.0,6400.0,6100.0,6250.0,6200.0,5900.0,6050.0,5850.0,6000.0,6150.0,5500.0,5950.0,5650.0,5700.0,5450.0,5600.0,5550.0,5300.0,5400.0,5200.0,5350.0,5500.0,5050.0,5600.0,6150.0,6050.0,5450.0,5400.0,5300.0,5000.0,5100.0,4900.0,5050.0,5150.0,5300.0,4950.0,4700.0,4750.0,4500.0,4600.0,4550.0,4350.0,4450.0,4300.0,4400.0,4650.0,4450.0,4400.0,4150.0,4200.0,4000.0,4100.0,4050.0,3850.0,3950.0,3800.0,3900.0,4050.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3750.0,3550.0,3650.0,3600.0,3450.0,3500.0,3350.0,3450.0,3550.0,3300.0,3450.0,3300.0,3350.0,3150.0,3250.0,3200.0,3050.0,3150.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,2850.0,3100.0,2950.0,3000.0,2850.0,2950.0,2900.0,2750.0,2850.0,2700.0,2800.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[10850.0,9920.0,10410.0,10180.0,9740.0,9320.0,9890.0,9610.0,9480.0,9850.0,9520.0,9180.0,10210.0,9340.0,9860.0,9450.0,9120.0,8870.0,9230.0,9050.0,12840.0,14210.0,9680.0,9150.0,9780.0,8840.0,9310.0,9040.0,8720.0,8450.0,8910.0,8630.0,8480.0,8790.0,8510.0,8200.0,9120.0,8340.0,8810.0,8490.0,8260.0,7950.0,8380.0,8120.0,7980.0,8270.0,8010.0,7740.0,8450.0,8100.0,9620.0,11040.0,10380.0,8750.0,8420.0,8260.0,8110.0,8390.0,7940.0,7650.0,8230.0,7480.0,7940.0,7650.0,7380.0,7120.0,7510.0,7360.0,7240.0,7490.0,7180.0,6920.0,7610.0,6950.0,7380.0,7090.0,6840.0,6620.0,6980.0,6810.0,6730.0,6940.0,6680.0,6430.0,7140.0,6510.0,6890.0,6640.0,6410.0,6220.0,6540.0,6390.0,6280.0,6490.0,6250.0,6010.0,6650.0,6180.0,6470.0,6210.0,6020.0,5840.0,6120.0,5980.0,5890.0,6080.0,5870.0,5640.0,6240.0,5710.0,6050.0,5820.0,5640.0,5480.0,5740.0,5610.0,5530.0,5720.0,5510.0,5300.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[4000.0,3850.0,3950.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3550.0,3600.0,3650.0,3750.0,3700.0,3450.0,3700.0,3500.0,3600.0,3450.0,3350.0,3200.0,3250.0,3250.0,3600.0,3500.0,3350.0,3100.0,3300.0,3150.0,3250.0,3100.0,3000.0,2850.0,2900.0,2900.0,2950.0,3000.0,2950.0,2750.0,2950.0,2750.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2450.0,2500.0,2500.0,2550.0,2600.0,2550.0,2400.0,2600.0,2450.0,2750.0,2800.0,2600.0,2350.0,2300.0,2250.0,2250.0,2300.0,2250.0,2150.0,2250.0,2100.0,2150.0,2050.0,1950.0,1850.0,1850.0,1850.0,1900.0,1950.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1650.0,1550.0,1550.0,1550.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1450.0,1350.0,1350.0,1350.0,1400.0,1450.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1350.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1200.0,1200.0,1250.0,1250.0,1250.0,1150.0,1250.0,1150.0,1200.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[27500.0,25800.0,26400.0,25200.0,25600.0,24300.0,25100.0,24800.0,23200.0,23600.0,22700.0,22900.0,23800.0,21300.0,22100.0,20900.0,20600.0,19800.0,20400.0,20100.0,18900.0,19200.0,18400.0,18600.0,19300.0,17200.0,17800.0,16900.0,16700.0,15800.0,16200.0,16000.0,15100.0,15300.0,14700.0,14900.0,15600.0,13900.0,14400.0,13700.0,13500.0,12900.0,13300.0,13100.0,12400.0,12600.0,12100.0,12300.0,13000.0,12000.0,13200.0,14500.0,14100.0,12900.0,12700.0,12400.0,11700.0,11800.0,11400.0,11700.0,12300.0,10900.0,11400.0,10800.0,10700.0,10200.0,10400.0,10300.0,9700.0,9800.0,9400.0,9500.0,10000.0,8900.0,9300.0,8900.0,8900.0,8500.0,8700.0,8600.0,8200.0,8300.0,8000.0,8100.0,8600.0,7700.0,8100.0,7800.0,7900.0,7500.0,7700.0,7600.0,7200.0,7300.0,7000.0,7100.0,7500.0,6900.0,7100.0,6900.0,7000.0,6700.0,6800.0,6800.0,6500.0,6600.0,6400.0,6500.0,6900.0,6200.0,6600.0,6400.0,6400.0,6100.0,6200.0,6200.0,5900.0,6000.0,5800.0,5900.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[10100.0,9300.0,10200.0,8900.0,10400.0,8950.0,8400.0,9300.0,10500.0,9900.0,10100.0,8600.0,9550.0,8650.0,9700.0,8300.0,9800.0,8500.0,7900.0,8750.0,11500.0,9750.0,8900.0,8150.0,9150.0,8250.0,9150.0,8350.0,9150.0,7850.0,7500.0,8250.0,9300.0,9050.0,8550.0,7600.0,8550.0,7900.0,8550.0,7650.0,8800.0,7550.0,6950.0,7900.0,8900.0,8350.0,8200.0,7250.0,8450.0,8100.0,9200.0,9350.0,9050.0,7800.0,7150.0,7700.0,8700.0,8300.0,7800.0,7450.0,7800.0,7050.0,7800.0,6950.0,7850.0,6750.0,6250.0,7050.0,7900.0,7550.0,7100.0,6550.0,7400.0,6800.0,7400.0,6750.0,7450.0,6550.0,6050.0,6750.0,7500.0,7300.0,6900.0,6350.0,7050.0,6600.0,7000.0,6550.0,7150.0,6250.0,5900.0,6450.0,7200.0,7000.0,6600.0,6050.0,6750.0,6150.0,6600.0,6100.0,6650.0,5900.0,5500.0,6100.0,6800.0,6600.0,6200.0,5700.0,6250.0,5800.0,6200.0,5750.0,6250.0,5550.0,5200.0,5700.0,6200.0,6050.0,5700.0,5250.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[3120.0,2750.0,3050.0,2880.0,2935.0,2680.0,2705.0,2810.0,2990.0,3025.0,2860.0,2580.0,2980.0,2685.0,2910.0,2780.0,2825.0,2600.0,2615.0,2720.0,5230.0,3980.0,2840.0,2480.0,2815.0,2520.0,2760.0,2630.0,2675.0,2450.0,2510.0,2575.0,2730.0,2765.0,2610.0,2350.0,2650.0,2380.0,2605.0,2480.0,2520.0,2310.0,2365.0,2425.0,2570.0,2600.0,2465.0,2220.0,2440.0,2305.0,3890.0,2850.0,2680.0,2190.0,2215.0,2280.0,2425.0,2445.0,2315.0,2090.0,2330.0,2100.0,2290.0,2180.0,2215.0,2030.0,2075.0,2135.0,2260.0,2295.0,2165.0,1950.0,2225.0,2005.0,2185.0,2080.0,2120.0,1940.0,1985.0,2035.0,2160.0,2190.0,2065.0,1865.0,2120.0,1910.0,2085.0,1985.0,2015.0,1850.0,1885.0,1940.0,2060.0,2085.0,1970.0,1775.0,2015.0,1815.0,1980.0,1885.0,1915.0,1755.0,1795.0,1845.0,1955.0,1980.0,1870.0,1685.0,1910.0,1720.0,1875.0,1785.0,1815.0,1660.0,1700.0,1745.0,1855.0,1875.0,1770.0,1600.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[9800.0,9300.0,9500.0,9100.0,8800.0,8800.0,8900.0,8200.0,8900.0,9400.0,10200.0,8300.0,9500.0,9100.0,9300.0,9200.0,8600.0,8200.0,8400.0,8100.0,23800.0,14600.0,9200.0,8200.0,8900.0,8100.0,8600.0,8200.0,7900.0,7600.0,7700.0,7400.0,8000.0,8400.0,8700.0,7200.0,8400.0,8000.0,8100.0,7800.0,7500.0,7700.0,7300.0,7000.0,7600.0,8000.0,8200.0,7100.0,8400.0,7400.0,9200.0,9700.0,8600.0,8000.0,7800.0,7500.0,8100.0,8400.0,8600.0,7300.0,7800.0,11400.0,8000.0,7500.0,6800.0,7000.0,6900.0,8300.0,7100.0,7400.0,7600.0,6900.0,7400.0,7100.0,7600.0,6900.0,6700.0,6500.0,6400.0,6300.0,6800.0,7100.0,7300.0,6300.0,7100.0,7000.0,6900.0,6600.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,6000.0,6200.0,6800.0,7000.0,6100.0,6900.0,6600.0,6900.0,6400.0,6200.0,6100.0,5900.0,5800.0,6300.0,6600.0,7100.0,5900.0,6700.0,6700.0,6500.0,6200.0,6000.0,5900.0,5800.0,5400.0,6100.0,6400.0,6600.0,5700.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4410.0,4200.0,6784.0,4616.0,4200.0,4032.0,3990.0,4074.0,4200.0,5084.0,4326.0,4284.0,4095.0,3900.0,3978.0,3822.0,3900.0,3744.0,3705.0,3783.0,9900.0,5478.0,4017.0,3978.0,3780.0,3600.0,3672.0,3528.0,3600.0,3456.0,3420.0,3492.0,3600.0,3672.0,3708.0,3672.0,3570.0,3400.0,3468.0,3332.0,3400.0,3264.0,3230.0,3298.0,3400.0,3468.0,3502.0,3468.0,3360.0,3200.0,5264.0,4136.0,3200.0,3072.0,3040.0,3104.0,3200.0,3264.0,3296.0,3264.0,3150.0,3000.0,3060.0,2940.0,3000.0,2880.0,2850.0,2910.0,3000.0,3060.0,3090.0,3060.0,2993.0,2850.0,2907.0,2793.0,2850.0,2736.0,2708.0,2765.0,2850.0,2907.0,2936.0,2907.0,2835.0,2700.0,2754.0,2646.0,2700.0,2592.0,2565.0,2619.0,2700.0,2754.0,2781.0,2754.0,2678.0,2550.0,2601.0,2499.0,2550.0,2448.0,2423.0,2474.0,2550.0,2601.0,2627.0,2601.0,2520.0,2400.0,2448.0,2352.0,2400.0,2304.0,2280.0,2328.0,2400.0,2448.0,2472.0,2448.0],"meta/muse-ember":[3467.0,3405.0,3301.0,3404.0,3142.0,3473.0,3329.0,3472.0,3305.0,3337.0,3637.0,2983.0,3324.0,3013.0,3295.0,3014.0,3136.0,3072.0,4357.0,3753.0,4505.0,5279.0,3767.0,2978.0,3108.0,3083.0,3927.0,2964.0,2760.0,3053.0,3048.0,3144.0,2874.0,2876.0,3112.0,2702.0,3078.0,2737.0,2934.0,2654.0,2792.0,2819.0,2961.0,2992.0,2736.0,2792.0,2961.0,2573.0,2989.0,2850.0,3741.0,3631.0,3275.0,2848.0,3020.0,2847.0,2907.0,2738.0,2934.0,2546.0,2833.0,2596.0,2809.0,2518.0,2595.0,2674.0,2835.0,2618.0,2648.0,2647.0,2753.0,2391.0,3708.0,3064.0,2748.0,2475.0,2306.0,2525.0,2546.0,2625.0,2401.0,2426.0,2549.0,2258.0,2489.0,2212.0,2371.0,2325.0,2123.0,2372.0,2368.0,2419.0,2280.0,2279.0,2417.0,2079.0,2234.0,2130.0,2128.0,2130.0,2067.0,2151.0,2302.0,2106.0,2151.0,2026.0,2214.0,1963.0,2115.0,1899.0,2035.0,1842.0,1956.0,1976.0,2054.0,2056.0,1918.0,1934.0,2016.0,1767.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[7956.0,7722.0,8190.0,8034.0,7800.0,7254.0,6942.0,7098.0,8112.0,8268.0,7956.0,6864.0,8313.0,8069.0,8558.0,8395.0,8150.0,7580.0,7254.0,7417.0,11076.0,9939.0,8313.0,7172.0,8619.0,8366.0,8873.0,8704.0,8450.0,7859.0,7521.0,7690.0,8788.0,8957.0,10219.0,8436.0,9829.0,8861.0,9398.0,9219.0,8950.0,8324.0,7966.0,8141.0,9308.0,9487.0,9129.0,7876.0,10557.0,10247.0,14668.0,13661.0,11750.0,9626.0,9212.0,9419.0,10764.0,10971.0,10557.0,9108.0,11475.0,11138.0,11813.0,11588.0,11250.0,10463.0,10013.0,10238.0,11700.0,11925.0,11475.0,9900.0,10557.0,10247.0,10868.0,10661.0,10350.0,9626.0,9212.0,9419.0,10764.0,10971.0,10557.0,9108.0,9537.0,9257.0,9818.0,9611.0,9350.0,8696.0,8322.0,8509.0,9724.0,9891.0,9537.0,8228.0,8415.0,8168.0,8663.0,8498.0,8250.0,7673.0,7343.0,7508.0,8580.0,8745.0,8415.0,7260.0,7599.0,7376.0,7823.0,7664.0,7450.0,6929.0,6631.0,6780.0,7748.0,7897.0,7599.0,6556.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[2630.0,2480.0,2710.0,2590.0,2490.0,2380.0,2210.0,2180.0,2520.0,2700.0,2810.0,2550.0,2600.0,2500.0,2690.0,2600.0,2510.0,2390.0,2230.0,2190.0,7800.0,3500.0,2910.0,2680.0,2700.0,2570.0,2760.0,2670.0,2580.0,2460.0,2290.0,2240.0,2600.0,2810.0,2910.0,3500.0,2820.0,2690.0,3700.0,2890.0,2800.0,2670.0,2490.0,2440.0,2830.0,3070.0,3180.0,2900.0,3020.0,2900.0,3580.0,3510.0,3400.0,3220.0,2980.0,2910.0,3370.0,3650.0,3780.0,3440.0,3600.0,3460.0,3670.0,3570.0,3450.0,3270.0,3040.0,3320.0,3850.0,3710.0,3850.0,3500.0,3460.0,3310.0,3520.0,3420.0,3290.0,3120.0,2900.0,2850.0,3300.0,3570.0,3700.0,3360.0,3440.0,3290.0,3490.0,3390.0,3260.0,3090.0,2870.0,2810.0,3250.0,3520.0,3650.0,4300.0,3500.0,3330.0,3520.0,3420.0,3300.0,3120.0,2900.0,2840.0,3280.0,3550.0,3670.0,3330.0,3440.0,3280.0,3470.0,3370.0,3250.0,3080.0,2860.0,2800.0,3230.0,3500.0,3620.0,3280.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1580.0,1560.0,1480.0,1450.0,1500.0,1600.0,1620.0,1600.0,1500.0,1650.0,1600.0,1650.0,1560.0,1540.0,1450.0,1430.0,1480.0,1580.0,1600.0,1570.0,1480.0,1600.0,1550.0,1580.0,1500.0,1480.0,1400.0,1380.0,1420.0,1520.0,1540.0,1500.0,1420.0,1540.0,1500.0,1520.0,1450.0,1430.0,1350.0,1330.0,1370.0,1470.0,1490.0,1450.0,1370.0,1480.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1480.0,1380.0,1340.0,1350.0,1420.0,1440.0,1400.0,1320.0,1420.0,1390.0,1400.0,1350.0,1320.0,1260.0,1240.0,1260.0,1340.0,1360.0,1330.0,1260.0,1350.0,1320.0,1340.0,1280.0,1260.0,1200.0,1180.0,1200.0,1280.0,1300.0,1270.0,1200.0,1280.0,1250.0,1270.0,1210.0,1190.0,1140.0,1120.0,1140.0,1210.0,1230.0,1200.0,1140.0,1210.0,1180.0,1200.0,1150.0,1130.0,1080.0,1060.0,1080.0,1150.0,1170.0,1140.0,1080.0,1150.0,1120.0,1140.0,1090.0,1070.0,1020.0,1000.0,1020.0,1090.0,1110.0,1080.0,1020.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[2350.0,1640.0,1930.0,1760.0,1760.0,1950.0,1720.0,1740.0,2140.0,2120.0,2310.0,2620.0,2570.0,1790.0,2120.0,1930.0,1930.0,2140.0,1890.0,1910.0,2350.0,2680.0,2650.0,2810.0,2690.0,1870.0,2210.0,2020.0,2020.0,2230.0,1970.0,1990.0,2450.0,2430.0,2640.0,2980.0,3400.0,2260.0,2670.0,2440.0,2440.0,2700.0,2380.0,2410.0,2960.0,2930.0,3190.0,3720.0,4570.0,3440.0,3590.0,3280.0,3280.0,4130.0,3200.0,3240.0,4480.0,3940.0,4290.0,5400.0,5580.0,4540.0,4720.0,4830.0,4030.0,5660.0,3940.0,4980.0,4900.0,4850.0,5680.0,6360.0,5330.0,4030.0,4050.0,4000.0,4400.0,4090.0,3610.0,4150.0,4490.0,5040.0,4840.0,5190.0,4560.0,3360.0,3500.0,3190.0,3190.0,4030.0,3120.0,3150.0,4180.0,3840.0,4180.0,4980.0,4000.0,2570.0,3040.0,2970.0,2770.0,3070.0,2710.0,2990.0,3370.0,3330.0,3630.0,4190.0,3340.0,2180.0,2580.0,2350.0,2350.0,2800.0,2300.0,2320.0,2860.0,2830.0,3080.0,3550.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[850.0,820.0,900.0,870.0,850.0,810.0,800.0,820.0,790.0,810.0,780.0,700.0,760.0,750.0,800.0,780.0,760.0,730.0,750.0,780.0,1100.0,970.0,820.0,720.0,760.0,730.0,770.0,750.0,730.0,710.0,690.0,710.0,700.0,720.0,680.0,630.0,710.0,680.0,720.0,700.0,680.0,660.0,650.0,670.0,660.0,680.0,640.0,590.0,680.0,660.0,850.0,900.0,820.0,760.0,740.0,760.0,730.0,750.0,720.0,650.0,700.0,670.0,710.0,690.0,670.0,650.0,640.0,660.0,650.0,670.0,630.0,580.0,670.0,640.0,680.0,660.0,640.0,620.0,610.0,630.0,620.0,640.0,600.0,550.0,640.0,610.0,650.0,630.0,610.0,590.0,580.0,600.0,590.0,610.0,570.0,520.0,610.0,580.0,620.0,600.0,580.0,560.0,550.0,570.0,560.0,580.0,540.0,500.0,580.0,550.0,590.0,570.0,550.0,530.0,520.0,540.0,530.0,550.0,510.0,470.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[1100.0,1080.0,1230.0,1040.0,1000.0,950.0,920.0,920.0,1050.0,1060.0,1030.0,880.0,1045.0,1026.0,1026.0,988.0,950.0,903.0,874.0,874.0,1078.0,1007.0,979.0,836.0,990.0,972.0,972.0,936.0,900.0,855.0,828.0,828.0,945.0,954.0,927.0,792.0,946.0,929.0,929.0,894.0,860.0,817.0,791.0,791.0,903.0,912.0,886.0,757.0,913.0,896.0,896.0,863.0,830.0,789.0,764.0,764.0,872.0,880.0,855.0,730.0,836.0,821.0,821.0,790.0,760.0,722.0,699.0,699.0,798.0,806.0,783.0,669.0,770.0,756.0,756.0,728.0,700.0,665.0,644.0,644.0,735.0,742.0,721.0,616.0,682.0,670.0,670.0,645.0,620.0,589.0,570.0,570.0,651.0,657.0,639.0,546.0,594.0,583.0,583.0,562.0,540.0,513.0,497.0,497.0,567.0,572.0,556.0,475.0,517.0,508.0,508.0,489.0,470.0,447.0,432.0,432.0,494.0,498.0,484.0,414.0]}},{"title":"Christian X of Denmark","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Christian X of Denmark\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[15862,13410,14095,15828,14512,14503,12320,11929,12716,13013,18755,16809,24989,24394,15949,14679,16003,46764,13117,15930,12676,16141,14752,18762,21116,23135,17055,16825,20003,19422,15564,15439,12913,15623,14996,15527,16584,13525,15259,15695,15632,15510,17158,19283,14132,16506,16570,18446,21835,14594,16984,24697,21403,16806,17489,19301,17465,16694,20124,22258,20287,18424,24928,47216,26625,20727,19373,19003,19031,24200,20805,19115,25692,22941,21611,21504,21437,22020,18793,17658,61215,34568,22297,23818,31532,21549,23353,23612,28809,22747,23143,27498,21642,23962,25134,38641,105702,21510,21315,21639,23266,19379,18246,17764,18429,17888,16996,21150,24524,18108,19466,18785,11460,9867,10525,11640,10815,11074,11003,10467],"flat_reference_value":16953.478084383325,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[5200.0,4800.0,5300.0,6500.0,5700.0,4900.0,5100.0,5400.0,6100.0,5600.0,5100.0,5500.0,5600.0,5000.0,5500.0,6900.0,6000.0,5300.0,5400.0,5700.0,6400.0,5900.0,5600.0,6100.0,5900.0,5400.0,6000.0,7200.0,6300.0,5600.0,5800.0,6100.0,6800.0,6200.0,5900.0,6200.0,6100.0,5600.0,6200.0,7500.0,6500.0,5800.0,6000.0,6300.0,7100.0,6500.0,6100.0,6500.0,6400.0,5900.0,6700.0,10500.0,8100.0,6500.0,6300.0,6700.0,7900.0,6900.0,6500.0,6800.0,6600.0,6100.0,6800.0,8200.0,7100.0,6400.0,6500.0,6900.0,7800.0,7100.0,6700.0,7000.0,7600.0,6400.0,7000.0,8500.0,7300.0,6600.0,6800.0,7200.0,8500.0,7400.0,7100.0,7400.0,7200.0,6600.0,7200.0,8700.0,7700.0,6800.0,7000.0,7400.0,8200.0,8000.0,7400.0,8200.0,19000.0,10000.0,8700.0,9800.0,8500.0,7600.0,7800.0,8100.0,9100.0,8200.0,7800.0,8100.0,8300.0,7300.0,8000.0,10500.0,9800.0,7600.0,7800.0,8300.0,9200.0,8300.0,7900.0,8200.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[21800.0,20400.0,22100.0,24600.0,23500.0,19200.0,18900.0,19100.0,21500.0,22400.0,23800.0,21900.0,23100.0,21200.0,23400.0,25300.0,24100.0,19600.0,19300.0,19800.0,23600.0,22900.0,22300.0,24500.0,23200.0,29800.0,23700.0,25100.0,24200.0,19400.0,19000.0,19500.0,21800.0,22700.0,22900.0,21400.0,22800.0,20900.0,23100.0,25800.0,24700.0,19800.0,19600.0,20200.0,22300.0,23400.0,23900.0,22500.0,24100.0,22600.0,26400.0,36200.0,33800.0,26500.0,29400.0,24300.0,29800.0,26900.0,27600.0,25800.0,26900.0,24500.0,26200.0,38400.0,27900.0,22400.0,21800.0,22100.0,23900.0,24600.0,23800.0,22700.0,24200.0,22300.0,24800.0,26100.0,24900.0,21200.0,20600.0,21100.0,52400.0,30800.0,24700.0,22900.0,31400.0,22100.0,23500.0,25200.0,24800.0,19900.0,19700.0,20100.0,21900.0,28900.0,23400.0,35200.0,92500.0,30400.0,23600.0,24500.0,23800.0,19100.0,18700.0,19000.0,20600.0,21800.0,20900.0,19800.0,21400.0,19200.0,20800.0,25600.0,26900.0,18500.0,18100.0,18400.0,20100.0,21200.0,20300.0,19400.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[21300.0,19800.0,22100.0,25400.0,21800.0,19500.0,20400.0,21200.0,22600.0,20900.0,23500.0,20100.0,22800.0,19700.0,21500.0,24200.0,20800.0,19100.0,21700.0,22400.0,21000.0,23600.0,25100.0,20500.0,23200.0,27800.0,22900.0,26100.0,21400.0,19800.0,20600.0,21900.0,21200.0,22500.0,24300.0,21100.0,24000.0,20700.0,23100.0,27500.0,22300.0,20400.0,21600.0,22800.0,23400.0,24100.0,25600.0,21800.0,23900.0,22400.0,26800.0,36200.0,33100.0,26500.0,27900.0,25400.0,28100.0,26300.0,25700.0,23200.0,26100.0,23400.0,25200.0,28600.0,24100.0,21800.0,22900.0,23700.0,24500.0,25300.0,24800.0,22000.0,27400.0,23800.0,25100.0,26900.0,23500.0,21300.0,22700.0,24200.0,31500.0,26400.0,25100.0,23600.0,25900.0,22800.0,24600.0,27100.0,23900.0,21500.0,23200.0,24100.0,24800.0,25600.0,26300.0,29800.0,78500.0,34200.0,28400.0,29600.0,25300.0,22900.0,24100.0,24800.0,25700.0,26100.0,25400.0,23800.0,26500.0,23200.0,25000.0,27600.0,24300.0,22100.0,23500.0,24400.0,25200.0,25800.0,25100.0,23700.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[19500.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,20000.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,19000.0,19500.0,18000.0,19000.0,18500.0,19000.0,21000.0,19000.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,18000.0,18500.0,17000.0,18000.0,17500.0,18000.0,20000.0,18000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16500.0,17000.0,17500.0,17500.0,16500.0,17000.0,16500.0,17000.0,19000.0,17000.0,15500.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,16500.0,16500.0,15500.0,16500.0,16000.0,18000.0,24000.0,20000.0,16500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15500.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15500.0,17000.0,15500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,15000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14500.0,15000.0,16000.0,14500.0,13500.0,13500.0,13500.0,16500.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15000.0,13500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13500.0,15000.0,65000.0,24000.0,18000.0,17500.0,15500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,15000.0,13500.0,13500.0,15000.0,14000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,28000.0,29000.0,31000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,32000.0,38000.0,37000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,35000.0,36000.0,37000.0,34000.0,35000.0,42000.0,35000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,32000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,62000.0,36000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,35000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,38000.0,135000.0,42000.0,35000.0,33000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,29000.0,30000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[5100.0,4700.0,4800.0,5600.0,5100.0,4700.0,4300.0,4500.0,4800.0,4800.0,4700.0,4400.0,5300.0,4900.0,5000.0,5900.0,5400.0,4900.0,4500.0,4700.0,5000.0,5000.0,4900.0,4500.0,5400.0,5300.0,5200.0,6100.0,5500.0,5100.0,4700.0,4900.0,5200.0,5400.0,5700.0,6300.0,5600.0,5200.0,5300.0,6400.0,5700.0,5300.0,4900.0,5100.0,5400.0,5400.0,5300.0,4900.0,5900.0,5600.0,7200.0,13000.0,10000.0,7000.0,6200.0,6400.0,6700.0,6600.0,6400.0,6000.0,6400.0,6000.0,6100.0,8200.0,7000.0,6200.0,5700.0,5800.0,6100.0,6100.0,5900.0,5600.0,7300.0,6200.0,6300.0,8600.0,7400.0,6500.0,6000.0,6200.0,10000.0,7200.0,6700.0,6300.0,6500.0,6100.0,6200.0,8300.0,7200.0,6800.0,6200.0,6300.0,6600.0,6500.0,6300.0,6800.0,42000.0,13500.0,9500.0,11500.0,9000.0,7500.0,6800.0,6700.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,7000.0,7400.0,6900.0,7000.0,10500.0,10000.0,7300.0,6700.0,6800.0,7000.0,6900.0,6700.0,6500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[6100.0,5550.0,5850.0,5150.0,4900.0,4350.0,4050.0,4450.0,5600.0,5800.0,5750.0,4800.0,5900.0,5100.0,5450.0,6800.0,4700.0,4150.0,3900.0,4300.0,5400.0,5550.0,5450.0,4600.0,5600.0,4900.0,5300.0,4750.0,4500.0,4000.0,3750.0,4100.0,5150.0,5350.0,6000.0,5800.0,5350.0,4700.0,5100.0,4550.0,4300.0,3850.0,3600.0,3950.0,4950.0,5150.0,5100.0,4200.0,5300.0,4750.0,6000.0,5600.0,5400.0,4000.0,3600.0,3850.0,8800.0,5000.0,5050.0,4100.0,5000.0,4400.0,4750.0,4350.0,4000.0,3550.0,3350.0,3700.0,4650.0,4800.0,4750.0,3900.0,4850.0,4300.0,4600.0,6500.0,3950.0,3500.0,3250.0,3600.0,9500.0,4700.0,4600.0,3800.0,4650.0,4100.0,4450.0,3950.0,3750.0,3300.0,3100.0,3450.0,4350.0,4450.0,4400.0,4300.0,12500.0,4800.0,4500.0,4050.0,3850.0,3400.0,3150.0,3500.0,4400.0,4550.0,4500.0,3700.0,4400.0,3850.0,4150.0,3750.0,5200.0,3150.0,2950.0,3250.0,4100.0,4200.0,4150.0,3400.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[6840.0,6150.0,6320.0,6480.0,5920.0,5280.0,5140.0,5470.0,6310.0,6720.0,6290.0,6530.0,8230.0,6710.0,6840.0,7020.0,6380.0,5710.0,5520.0,5930.0,6740.0,7580.0,6810.0,7030.0,7820.0,7110.0,7230.0,7480.0,6720.0,6030.0,5810.0,6240.0,6730.0,7670.0,7210.0,7460.0,8270.0,7520.0,7640.0,7890.0,7120.0,6380.0,6160.0,6590.0,7140.0,8110.0,7620.0,7880.0,8830.0,8180.0,9410.0,9680.0,8520.0,6790.0,6580.0,7060.0,11040.0,9920.0,8170.0,8420.0,9240.0,8410.0,8590.0,10620.0,7990.0,7130.0,6870.0,7410.0,8010.0,9080.0,8570.0,8830.0,9140.0,8290.0,8510.0,10930.0,7910.0,7060.0,6820.0,7310.0,10320.0,8970.0,8480.0,8720.0,9720.0,8690.0,8910.0,9140.0,8320.0,7410.0,7130.0,7680.0,8290.0,19730.0,11240.0,9820.0,32710.0,14860.0,10920.0,10740.0,9340.0,7910.0,7620.0,8170.0,8840.0,11520.0,9480.0,9770.0,9910.0,8970.0,9210.0,9480.0,8560.0,7690.0,7380.0,7920.0,8570.0,9720.0,9190.0,9460.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[4410.0,3990.0,4200.0,4830.0,4620.0,3990.0,3780.0,3990.0,4620.0,4830.0,4200.0,3990.0,4200.0,3800.0,4000.0,4600.0,4400.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,4400.0,4600.0,4000.0,3800.0,4305.0,3895.0,4100.0,4715.0,4510.0,3895.0,3690.0,3895.0,4510.0,10715.0,4100.0,3895.0,4095.0,3705.0,3900.0,4485.0,4290.0,3705.0,3510.0,3705.0,4290.0,4485.0,3900.0,3705.0,4515.0,4085.0,4300.0,9945.0,12730.0,4085.0,3870.0,4085.0,4730.0,4945.0,4300.0,4085.0,3990.0,3610.0,3800.0,4370.0,4180.0,3610.0,3420.0,3610.0,4180.0,4370.0,3800.0,3610.0,4095.0,3705.0,3900.0,4485.0,4290.0,3705.0,3510.0,3705.0,6290.0,4485.0,3900.0,3705.0,3780.0,3420.0,3600.0,4140.0,3960.0,3420.0,3240.0,3420.0,3960.0,4140.0,3600.0,3420.0,26725.0,4275.0,4500.0,5175.0,4950.0,4275.0,4050.0,4275.0,4950.0,5175.0,4500.0,4275.0,3885.0,3515.0,3700.0,4255.0,10070.0,3515.0,3330.0,3515.0,4070.0,4255.0,3700.0,3515.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2400.0,2150.0,2250.0,2850.0,2350.0,2100.0,1950.0,2000.0,2600.0,2400.0,2200.0,2050.0,2300.0,2050.0,2150.0,2750.0,2200.0,1950.0,1900.0,2000.0,3150.0,2300.0,2100.0,1950.0,2250.0,6200.0,3200.0,2700.0,2100.0,1950.0,1850.0,1900.0,2450.0,2250.0,2050.0,1900.0,2200.0,2000.0,2150.0,2600.0,2050.0,1900.0,1800.0,1850.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2200.0,2050.0,3400.0,6200.0,2800.0,2300.0,2100.0,2200.0,3800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2400.0,2150.0,2300.0,2900.0,2250.0,2050.0,1950.0,2050.0,2650.0,2400.0,2200.0,2050.0,4600.0,2050.0,2150.0,2700.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1950.0,3400.0,2300.0,2050.0,1950.0,2100.0,3200.0,2100.0,2600.0,2400.0,1800.0,1700.0,1850.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,3600.0,16000.0,4200.0,2300.0,2600.0,1700.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1900.0,1750.0,1550.0,1450.0,3000.0,1500.0,1550.0,2800.0,1550.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1800.0,1650.0,1450.0,1350.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3780.0,3670.0,3820.0,3960.0,4030.0,3530.0,3240.0,3170.0,3740.0,3820.0,3710.0,3310.0,4100.0,3980.0,4130.0,6890.0,4370.0,3820.0,3510.0,3430.0,4060.0,4130.0,4020.0,3590.0,3890.0,3770.0,3920.0,4070.0,4140.0,3630.0,3330.0,3260.0,3850.0,3920.0,3810.0,3400.0,4100.0,3980.0,4130.0,4290.0,4370.0,3820.0,3510.0,3430.0,4060.0,4130.0,4020.0,3590.0,5880.0,5710.0,7540.0,12360.0,10870.0,5490.0,5040.0,4930.0,9120.0,5940.0,5770.0,6050.0,4830.0,4690.0,4880.0,5960.0,5850.0,4510.0,4140.0,4050.0,4780.0,4880.0,4740.0,4230.0,4200.0,4080.0,4240.0,8100.0,4480.0,3920.0,3600.0,3520.0,4160.0,4240.0,4120.0,3680.0,3680.0,3570.0,3710.0,3850.0,3920.0,3430.0,3150.0,3080.0,3640.0,3710.0,3610.0,6620.0,9060.0,4460.0,3290.0,3410.0,3470.0,3040.0,2790.0,2730.0,3220.0,3290.0,3190.0,2850.0,2840.0,2750.0,2860.0,4270.0,7120.0,2650.0,2430.0,2380.0,2810.0,2860.0,2780.0,2480.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4900.0,4500.0,5500.0,10800.0,6600.0,5400.0,5000.0,4600.0,5400.0,5900.0,5700.0,5100.0,5100.0,4700.0,5700.0,11400.0,6800.0,5600.0,5200.0,4800.0,5600.0,6100.0,5900.0,5200.0,5250.0,4800.0,5850.0,11700.0,7000.0,5800.0,5300.0,4900.0,5700.0,6300.0,6000.0,5400.0,5300.0,4850.0,6000.0,12100.0,7200.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,5800.0,6400.0,6200.0,5500.0,5700.0,5100.0,6300.0,18500.0,7700.0,6300.0,5800.0,5300.0,6200.0,6700.0,6500.0,5700.0,5200.0,4750.0,5850.0,12000.0,7400.0,6050.0,5600.0,5150.0,5900.0,6450.0,6250.0,5550.0,5350.0,4850.0,5950.0,13000.0,7450.0,6150.0,5650.0,5200.0,7600.0,6500.0,6300.0,5550.0,5400.0,4900.0,6050.0,12500.0,7600.0,6200.0,5750.0,5250.0,6050.0,8000.0,6400.0,5650.0,9200.0,7800.0,6300.0,13200.0,7700.0,6400.0,5850.0,5350.0,6150.0,6750.0,6500.0,5750.0,6100.0,5350.0,6200.0,13000.0,8200.0,6350.0,5800.0,5300.0,6100.0,6700.0,6500.0,5700.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3000.0,2800.0,2800.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,3500.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,3400.0,3200.0,3200.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3500.0,3300.0,3300.0,3700.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,3800.0,3800.0,4200.0,4800.0,4500.0,3900.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,4000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3900.0,3900.0,4100.0,4300.0,4200.0,3700.0,3500.0,3500.0,3900.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,4300.0,4500.0,4300.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,4200.0,4100.0,4100.0,3900.0,4000.0,4000.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,3800.0,3600.0,3600.0,4000.0,4200.0,4200.0,4300.0,6000.0,4800.0,4500.0,4600.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,4200.0,4400.0,4400.0,4200.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,3900.0,3900.0,4300.0,4500.0,4500.0,4300.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[968.0,788.0,837.0,861.0,1042.0,896.0,717.0,703.0,1106.0,926.0,859.0,838.0,1013.0,825.0,879.0,903.0,1089.0,934.0,758.0,733.0,1147.0,968.0,899.0,877.0,1057.0,862.0,916.0,944.0,1136.0,977.0,784.0,767.0,1203.0,1010.0,942.0,915.0,1103.0,904.0,947.0,982.0,1184.0,1017.0,826.0,798.0,1247.0,1053.0,976.0,949.0,1148.0,932.0,991.0,1022.0,1233.0,1058.0,856.0,831.0,1378.0,1096.0,1018.0,992.0,1192.0,967.0,1031.0,1062.0,1279.0,1104.0,883.0,866.0,1348.0,1137.0,1055.0,1028.0,1237.0,1005.0,1067.0,1102.0,1448.0,1144.0,919.0,892.0,1404.0,1179.0,1097.0,1063.0,1278.0,1046.0,1099.0,1139.0,1371.0,1187.0,954.0,926.0,1452.0,1215.0,1138.0,1098.0,1868.0,1312.0,1141.0,1177.0,1419.0,1226.0,982.0,961.0,1502.0,1264.0,1179.0,1142.0,1418.0,1119.0,1181.0,1217.0,1462.0,1267.0,1014.0,993.0,1551.0,1305.0,1218.0,1182.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[890.0,850.0,910.0,1060.0,1010.0,920.0,900.0,920.0,980.0,930.0,890.0,850.0,880.0,840.0,900.0,1050.0,990.0,910.0,890.0,910.0,970.0,920.0,880.0,840.0,870.0,830.0,900.0,1080.0,1010.0,920.0,900.0,920.0,990.0,930.0,890.0,850.0,880.0,840.0,920.0,1100.0,1020.0,930.0,910.0,930.0,1000.0,940.0,900.0,860.0,930.0,910.0,1050.0,1320.0,1280.0,1190.0,1140.0,1170.0,1240.0,1180.0,1120.0,1090.0,1110.0,1050.0,1110.0,1280.0,1210.0,1080.0,1030.0,1060.0,1130.0,1060.0,1010.0,970.0,990.0,950.0,1010.0,1210.0,1130.0,1020.0,980.0,1000.0,1080.0,1020.0,970.0,930.0,960.0,920.0,990.0,1180.0,1110.0,1010.0,980.0,1010.0,1100.0,1040.0,1000.0,980.0,2100.0,1540.0,1230.0,1420.0,1320.0,1160.0,1090.0,1120.0,1190.0,1110.0,1060.0,1010.0,1030.0,990.0,1040.0,1240.0,1160.0,1050.0,1010.0,1030.0,1110.0,1050.0,1000.0,960.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[2300.0,2415.0,2530.0,2415.0,2300.0,1955.0,1840.0,1955.0,2415.0,2530.0,2415.0,1955.0,2400.0,2520.0,3240.0,2520.0,2400.0,2040.0,1920.0,2040.0,2520.0,2640.0,2520.0,2040.0,2500.0,2625.0,2750.0,2625.0,2500.0,2125.0,2000.0,2125.0,2625.0,2750.0,2625.0,2925.0,2300.0,2415.0,2530.0,2415.0,2300.0,1955.0,1840.0,1955.0,2415.0,2530.0,2415.0,1955.0,2700.0,2835.0,2970.0,2835.0,2700.0,3495.0,2160.0,2295.0,2835.0,2970.0,2835.0,2295.0,2400.0,2520.0,2640.0,2520.0,2400.0,2040.0,1920.0,2040.0,2520.0,2640.0,2520.0,2040.0,2200.0,2310.0,2420.0,2310.0,2200.0,1870.0,1760.0,1870.0,2310.0,2420.0,2310.0,1870.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,1700.0,2200.0,1995.0,2090.0,1995.0,1900.0,1615.0,1520.0,1615.0,1995.0,2090.0,1995.0,1615.0,1500.0,1575.0,1650.0,1575.0,1500.0,1275.0,1200.0,1275.0,1575.0,1650.0,1575.0,1275.0]}},{"title":"National Assembly (Serbia)","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"National Assembly (Serbia)\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[1653,1629,2777,4772,3571,2147,1813,2124,1696,1859,2149,2423,2324,2182,2983,3683,2187,3850,2486,2000,2247,2583,2832,2440,2606,2481,2882,2976,2662,2926,3124,2534,2505,2668,2769,3481,3784,3412,4075,3686,3426,3006,3254,3025,3241,3508,3500,3484,3514,3401,4133,4196,5118,11755,9296,5786,4927,5700,4908,4563,4532,5106,7314,7403,7133,6890,6083,6059,6310,6948,8343,7172,9879,7618,11169,24253,8364,7237,8006,12091,7796,8758,7363,7998,7761,9036,7906,7405,12060,9370,8014,6952,7339,8367,10698,32507,9163,7594,8636,7154,8723,8276,6575,6526,5900,6628,8249,9514,13918,11292,27003,8454,6995,7407,8049,8763,7036,7158,7166,6655],"flat_reference_value":17067.070268807827,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[4200.0,4500.0,5600.0,9000.0,6200.0,5000.0,4400.0,3900.0,4300.0,4600.0,4500.0,4100.0,4300.0,4500.0,5200.0,6500.0,4800.0,4600.0,4200.0,3900.0,4300.0,4600.0,4500.0,4100.0,4300.0,4400.0,4800.0,4700.0,4800.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,4500.0,4800.0,4900.0,4600.0,4900.0,5000.0,5700.0,5500.0,5000.0,4700.0,4400.0,4200.0,4700.0,5000.0,4900.0,4600.0,4900.0,5000.0,5100.0,4700.0,5700.0,10500.0,8000.0,6200.0,5300.0,5700.0,5200.0,4700.0,4900.0,5000.0,5400.0,5200.0,5200.0,4900.0,4600.0,4400.0,4900.0,5300.0,5500.0,5200.0,5400.0,5700.0,7000.0,11500.0,7200.0,6200.0,5500.0,5800.0,5500.0,5900.0,5500.0,5100.0,5400.0,5600.0,5800.0,5500.0,7000.0,6500.0,5100.0,4800.0,5400.0,6000.0,7000.0,13000.0,8000.0,7000.0,6800.0,6000.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,5100.0,5500.0,5900.0,7000.0,7200.0,8500.0,9500.0,12000.0,8500.0,7200.0,7500.0,6800.0,5800.0,6200.0,6500.0,6800.0,6000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[4800.0,4600.0,5900.0,24500.0,9400.0,6800.0,4900.0,6300.0,4600.0,4700.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4300.0,5200.0,7900.0,5100.0,7100.0,4600.0,4200.0,4400.0,4700.0,4600.0,4500.0,4600.0,4300.0,4900.0,4500.0,4400.0,4200.0,4100.0,4000.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4800.0,5100.0,5400.0,5200.0,5700.0,4800.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,4700.0,4600.0,4700.0,5300.0,5800.0,5600.0,5100.0,6600.0,26500.0,16800.0,7900.0,5800.0,7600.0,5600.0,5400.0,5500.0,5100.0,5400.0,5200.0,5300.0,4900.0,4700.0,4600.0,4900.0,5100.0,5800.0,6400.0,6800.0,7200.0,9600.0,32000.0,11200.0,6800.0,6500.0,8900.0,6200.0,7900.0,5900.0,5700.0,5800.0,6400.0,5700.0,5400.0,8600.0,7200.0,5800.0,5300.0,6100.0,6800.0,9300.0,31000.0,12400.0,9800.0,8900.0,6800.0,7600.0,6400.0,5800.0,6200.0,5600.0,5900.0,8900.0,8200.0,9500.0,8400.0,28500.0,11400.0,7200.0,6800.0,6100.0,6400.0,6000.0,6200.0,7100.0,6300.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[2740.0,2890.0,3610.0,11450.0,6780.0,4210.0,3120.0,3890.0,2980.0,3150.0,2840.0,2690.0,2620.0,2810.0,3450.0,5230.0,3910.0,4120.0,2780.0,2490.0,2830.0,3210.0,3100.0,2740.0,2680.0,2820.0,3410.0,3250.0,3180.0,2870.0,2410.0,2350.0,2790.0,3120.0,3050.0,3310.0,3280.0,3140.0,3520.0,3890.0,3410.0,2980.0,2640.0,2510.0,2830.0,3350.0,3420.0,3180.0,3240.0,3510.0,3190.0,2980.0,3840.0,9210.0,32400.0,7120.0,4350.0,4890.0,3820.0,3410.0,3390.0,3250.0,3610.0,3540.0,3380.0,2950.0,2720.0,2810.0,3140.0,3450.0,3720.0,3890.0,3620.0,4150.0,5820.0,14750.0,6120.0,4230.0,3490.0,3980.0,3610.0,4510.0,3420.0,3250.0,3180.0,3320.0,3540.0,3410.0,6820.0,5190.0,3310.0,2980.0,3410.0,3920.0,5210.0,16420.0,7380.0,4210.0,3940.0,3820.0,4150.0,3210.0,3450.0,3280.0,3190.0,3510.0,4820.0,4350.0,3810.0,3540.0,3620.0,3480.0,3390.0,3120.0,2840.0,2790.0,3150.0,3420.0,3380.0,3250.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[4300.0,4500.0,5200.0,8200.0,5600.0,4700.0,3900.0,3800.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,3900.0,4000.0,4200.0,4600.0,5000.0,4400.0,4300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3900.0,4100.0,4100.0,3700.0,3900.0,3900.0,4100.0,4000.0,3900.0,3600.0,3300.0,3300.0,3700.0,3900.0,3900.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3500.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3700.0,3900.0,4000.0,4100.0,6200.0,4500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3900.0,3700.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,4300.0,6300.0,3900.0,3500.0,3100.0,3200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3200.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3500.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3200.0,4300.0,7200.0,4300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3400.0,3200.0,2900.0,2800.0,3000.0,3100.0,3600.0,4400.0,4600.0,4800.0,9500.0,5000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[3600.0,3700.0,4500.0,8500.0,4800.0,4200.0,3400.0,3500.0,3400.0,3500.0,3500.0,3300.0,3500.0,3400.0,3800.0,4500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3000.0,3300.0,3300.0,3400.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,3400.0,3400.0,3400.0,3600.0,3700.0,4000.0,4000.0,4500.0,9500.0,7000.0,4800.0,4000.0,4800.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,3700.0,3700.0,3500.0,3300.0,3200.0,3400.0,3600.0,3800.0,4000.0,4300.0,4500.0,5500.0,11000.0,5000.0,4300.0,4300.0,4800.0,4200.0,4500.0,4000.0,4000.0,4000.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,4800.0,4300.0,3800.0,3600.0,3800.0,4200.0,5500.0,13000.0,6500.0,5200.0,5200.0,4800.0,5000.0,4800.0,4300.0,4500.0,4300.0,4500.0,5800.0,6500.0,7500.0,7000.0,13000.0,6500.0,5800.0,5800.0,5500.0,5800.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,4900.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3200.0,3400.0,4800.0,13500.0,7800.0,5600.0,4300.0,4900.0,4100.0,3700.0,3400.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,4200.0,5500.0,4000.0,6000.0,3800.0,3300.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3200.0,3100.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,4800.0,6000.0,6500.0,6800.0,6000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3600.0,3500.0,4800.0,4000.0,3800.0,12000.0,16000.0,6500.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,3000.0,3100.0,3400.0,3800.0,6500.0,22000.0,8000.0,4500.0,4000.0,3800.0,4000.0,6500.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,3600.0,3400.0,6500.0,5500.0,4000.0,3500.0,4000.0,4800.0,8000.0,19000.0,5000.0,4000.0,3800.0,3700.0,5000.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3500.0,4000.0,8000.0,11000.0,9000.0,12000.0,18000.0,13000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,9000.0,7000.0,8000.0,12000.0,9000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[2205.0,2071.0,3169.0,5390.0,2988.0,1860.0,1650.0,1826.0,2139.0,2239.0,2213.0,1972.0,2134.0,1863.0,2684.0,3219.0,2205.0,1710.0,1548.0,1727.0,1891.0,2184.0,1986.0,1936.0,1904.0,1778.0,2429.0,1888.0,1862.0,1520.0,1486.0,1509.0,1823.0,1939.0,1909.0,2009.0,1809.0,1681.0,1851.0,1788.0,1731.0,1521.0,1381.0,1511.0,1664.0,1911.0,1756.0,1861.0,1927.0,1881.0,2484.0,1939.0,2523.0,5474.0,3387.0,1852.0,1862.0,1974.0,1962.0,1768.0,2030.0,1786.0,2117.0,1849.0,1944.0,1610.0,1571.0,1578.0,1912.0,2017.0,2003.0,1807.0,2205.0,2358.0,3669.0,6400.0,2898.0,1850.0,1690.0,1836.0,2039.0,2359.0,2413.0,2392.0,2462.0,2310.0,2554.0,2381.0,3052.0,2567.0,2094.0,2050.0,3065.0,2854.0,3314.0,7197.0,3783.0,3081.0,2874.0,2712.0,2928.0,2937.0,2128.0,2316.0,2570.0,2944.0,3637.0,3870.0,4980.0,3931.0,5818.0,4165.0,3898.0,3624.0,2876.0,3266.0,3512.0,4078.0,4311.0,3497.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[5200.0,5000.0,8200.0,13000.0,7800.0,5600.0,4800.0,4600.0,5600.0,5200.0,5000.0,4600.0,4800.0,5000.0,7200.0,10500.0,5800.0,5200.0,4600.0,4400.0,5400.0,5200.0,5200.0,4800.0,5000.0,5000.0,5800.0,5800.0,5600.0,5200.0,4600.0,4600.0,5400.0,5400.0,5600.0,6200.0,6400.0,5800.0,5800.0,5600.0,5400.0,5400.0,4800.0,4600.0,5600.0,5600.0,5600.0,5200.0,5400.0,5600.0,8800.0,7600.0,6200.0,14500.0,6000.0,5000.0,5400.0,6200.0,5800.0,5200.0,5200.0,5200.0,5400.0,5400.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,4800.0,5400.0,6200.0,7000.0,6600.0,5800.0,6600.0,8800.0,12800.0,6600.0,5800.0,5200.0,5200.0,5800.0,5800.0,6000.0,5800.0,5800.0,5800.0,6200.0,6200.0,10500.0,6600.0,5600.0,5400.0,5800.0,7200.0,7600.0,13500.0,7200.0,7800.0,8200.0,6400.0,6800.0,5600.0,5200.0,5200.0,5600.0,5800.0,8800.0,11500.0,10500.0,11500.0,17500.0,13500.0,11500.0,10500.0,9000.0,8500.0,9500.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[620.0,650.0,700.0,4800.0,1900.0,780.0,650.0,600.0,700.0,760.0,720.0,680.0,700.0,720.0,800.0,1500.0,950.0,750.0,650.0,620.0,700.0,760.0,720.0,680.0,700.0,720.0,780.0,820.0,780.0,700.0,620.0,600.0,680.0,740.0,700.0,660.0,720.0,760.0,820.0,860.0,820.0,740.0,660.0,640.0,720.0,780.0,740.0,700.0,760.0,800.0,900.0,850.0,950.0,5500.0,2400.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,880.0,820.0,850.0,880.0,920.0,960.0,900.0,820.0,740.0,700.0,800.0,860.0,820.0,780.0,850.0,1100.0,2800.0,7500.0,2300.0,1100.0,950.0,900.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,950.0,950.0,980.0,1020.0,1060.0,1000.0,920.0,850.0,800.0,900.0,1000.0,1800.0,8500.0,3500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1250.0,1200.0,1350.0,1100.0,1000.0,1100.0,1200.0,2600.0,3200.0,5200.0,4300.0,6500.0,3800.0,2800.0,2400.0,2100.0,1900.0,2100.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0],"meta/muse-ember":[6900.0,7100.0,7900.0,19500.0,9500.0,8600.0,6200.0,7400.0,7900.0,8100.0,7900.0,6800.0,7400.0,7600.0,9200.0,19000.0,9500.0,10200.0,6600.0,6200.0,8400.0,8600.0,8400.0,7200.0,7800.0,8100.0,9800.0,9200.0,8700.0,8300.0,7000.0,6600.0,8900.0,9200.0,8900.0,7700.0,8800.0,9000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9000.0,8600.0,7200.0,6900.0,9200.0,10000.0,9200.0,7900.0,9200.0,9500.0,16800.0,15100.0,12800.0,24500.0,14800.0,10900.0,10500.0,10800.0,10500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9300.0,10300.0,10600.0,10000.0,9600.0,8000.0,7600.0,10300.0,10600.0,11200.0,10200.0,10600.0,14200.0,15100.0,28000.0,13200.0,11300.0,9400.0,10800.0,12100.0,12400.0,12100.0,10400.0,11000.0,11400.0,12600.0,13000.0,23300.0,17600.0,9800.0,9400.0,12600.0,16900.0,15100.0,28500.0,11500.0,11900.0,13100.0,13500.0,12800.0,20000.0,14500.0,13500.0,13100.0,13500.0,23600.0,18000.0,14800.0,13800.0,28400.0,23300.0,13800.0,22500.0,13500.0,10500.0,15200.0,14600.0,14200.0,12200.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[3000.0,3120.0,4210.0,6930.0,3060.0,2880.0,2640.0,2580.0,3000.0,3150.0,3120.0,2640.0,3300.0,3430.0,4630.0,6930.0,4210.0,3170.0,2900.0,2840.0,3300.0,3470.0,3430.0,2900.0,5040.0,3740.0,3890.0,3780.0,3670.0,3460.0,3170.0,3100.0,3600.0,3780.0,3740.0,4750.0,5530.0,5550.0,5760.0,5390.0,5240.0,4930.0,3480.0,3400.0,3950.0,4150.0,4110.0,4170.0,4200.0,4370.0,5900.0,4410.0,5570.0,8060.0,4440.0,3610.0,4200.0,4410.0,4370.0,3700.0,4050.0,4210.0,4370.0,4250.0,4130.0,3890.0,3560.0,3480.0,4050.0,4250.0,4210.0,3560.0,4300.0,6260.0,7430.0,11290.0,5700.0,4130.0,3780.0,3700.0,4300.0,4520.0,4470.0,3780.0,4450.0,4630.0,4810.0,4670.0,7260.0,5980.0,5290.0,5170.0,6010.0,6540.0,6940.0,8620.0,5300.0,5510.0,5720.0,5570.0,5410.0,9160.0,4660.0,4560.0,5300.0,5570.0,10470.0,10260.0,26250.0,31200.0,40500.0,33080.0,27540.0,21600.0,17160.0,14840.0,21000.0,25200.0,29640.0,19800.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[8400.0,8900.0,10200.0,29500.0,15800.0,8800.0,7600.0,7900.0,9800.0,11200.0,10100.0,8700.0,9200.0,9600.0,10300.0,10800.0,13500.0,9000.0,8000.0,8300.0,10200.0,11100.0,10700.0,9100.0,9300.0,9800.0,12500.0,68000.0,28500.0,11800.0,9900.0,9500.0,12700.0,16000.0,26500.0,12800.0,11300.0,11800.0,14000.0,12200.0,13500.0,10400.0,9300.0,9500.0,11800.0,12800.0,12100.0,10000.0,10700.0,11100.0,16500.0,13200.0,10600.0,9700.0,61000.0,29500.0,19500.0,18500.0,11500.0,9700.0,10100.0,10700.0,12100.0,14000.0,15200.0,11600.0,9900.0,9700.0,11900.0,12500.0,11800.0,9900.0,10800.0,11900.0,15500.0,72000.0,31500.0,14200.0,11000.0,10400.0,31000.0,13800.0,15500.0,124000.0,42000.0,18500.0,20000.0,18500.0,46000.0,25500.0,14500.0,13000.0,16500.0,15800.0,16500.0,43000.0,54000.0,39000.0,29000.0,18500.0,20000.0,13500.0,11800.0,10800.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,41000.0,23000.0,16000.0,17500.0,19000.0,20500.0,14500.0,12500.0,11500.0,15000.0,16000.0,15500.0,17000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,3400.0,3000.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,3000.0,2700.0,2400.0,2100.0,2000.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2700.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2000.0,1900.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2300.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,3200.0,2900.0,2600.0,3200.0,3300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2100.0,2000.0,2400.0,2500.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,3600.0,3100.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2600.0,2700.0,2700.0,2800.0,2800.0,3000.0,2600.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,4000.0,3600.0,3000.0,3000.0,3000.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2700.0,2800.0,3000.0,3300.0,3600.0,3600.0,3800.0,3300.0,3200.0,3000.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,3300.0,3300.0,3200.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[3370.0,3025.0,3190.0,6740.0,4920.0,3865.0,2770.0,3065.0,3290.0,3345.0,3180.0,3010.0,3160.0,2880.0,2935.0,3010.0,3060.0,2735.0,2580.0,2840.0,3085.0,3175.0,2990.0,2775.0,3030.0,2695.0,2740.0,2785.0,2815.0,2555.0,2435.0,2660.0,2910.0,2965.0,3670.0,3925.0,3480.0,2565.0,2680.0,2625.0,2715.0,2465.0,2340.0,2555.0,2805.0,2855.0,2695.0,2485.0,2785.0,2435.0,4840.0,9620.0,6745.0,4215.0,5130.0,4690.0,4180.0,2755.0,2605.0,2390.0,2655.0,2385.0,2470.0,2435.0,2515.0,2305.0,2135.0,2410.0,2595.0,2680.0,2485.0,2305.0,2815.0,2455.0,4865.0,10340.0,7315.0,5225.0,3295.0,3535.0,5520.0,3985.0,3390.0,3205.0,2860.0,2535.0,2690.0,2635.0,5120.0,3890.0,3015.0,2760.0,3150.0,3280.0,2860.0,11680.0,12420.0,8065.0,2855.0,2785.0,2915.0,2585.0,2510.0,2745.0,3025.0,3070.0,9340.0,11895.0,7480.0,5790.0,4200.0,3600.0,3315.0,2785.0,2705.0,2955.0,3195.0,3310.0,2985.0,2760.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1300.0,1350.0,1550.0,2400.0,1800.0,1650.0,1450.0,1350.0,1500.0,1650.0,1550.0,1450.0,1450.0,1400.0,1550.0,1900.0,1750.0,1550.0,1450.0,1400.0,1500.0,1650.0,1600.0,1450.0,1500.0,1600.0,1750.0,1650.0,1550.0,1500.0,1400.0,1350.0,1500.0,1650.0,1750.0,1600.0,1900.0,2100.0,2400.0,2100.0,1900.0,1750.0,1600.0,1550.0,1700.0,1850.0,1950.0,1800.0,1850.0,2000.0,2300.0,2500.0,2800.0,4200.0,3300.0,2450.0,2200.0,2300.0,2100.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,2200.0,2050.0,1900.0,1850.0,1700.0,1650.0,1800.0,2000.0,2150.0,2050.0,2100.0,2300.0,3100.0,4600.0,3400.0,2700.0,2200.0,2100.0,2250.0,2400.0,2600.0,2450.0,2500.0,2700.0,2900.0,2800.0,3600.0,3200.0,2700.0,2500.0,3000.0,3500.0,4100.0,5800.0,4700.0,3700.0,3300.0,3200.0,3800.0,4400.0,3600.0,3200.0,3500.0,4200.0,6000.0,7200.0,8500.0,7800.0,9000.0,8200.0,7600.0,7000.0,6100.0,5700.0,6200.0,6800.0,7400.0,6900.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[5200.0,5000.0,5300.0,9500.0,6800.0,5000.0,4300.0,4000.0,4900.0,4800.0,4700.0,4000.0,4600.0,4400.0,4700.0,4500.0,4300.0,4000.0,3500.0,3300.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,3300.0,3700.0,3500.0,3700.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,3200.0,3300.0,3200.0,2800.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3100.0,3000.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2900.0,3000.0,2900.0,2600.0,2900.0,2800.0,3300.0,3200.0,3300.0,5500.0,4200.0,3000.0,3100.0,3000.0,2900.0,2600.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,2600.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2600.0,2600.0,2500.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,3300.0,5800.0,3500.0,2600.0,2300.0,2100.0,2400.0,2400.0,2300.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,2000.0,2100.0,2300.0,4800.0,2600.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1600.0,1500.0,1800.0,1900.0,2300.0,1900.0,2400.0,2600.0,4300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2300.0,2000.0,2200.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1700.0]}},{"title":"Harriet Walter","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Harriet Walter\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[30045,14187,13356,19983,12875,11298,13445,14235,15219,14167,39731,26137,41926,31238,24866,35630,25622,20187,19462,22166,16624,16115,15579,25793,24556,18030,19533,17498,17511,26225,19875,22899,35689,24052,17378,18555,29138,27932,22545,21134,32039,30357,23595,28152,31610,28935,25565,26467,29444,43889,57840,121131,94391,86329,54119,46435,38350,43956,54389,52071,72255,49224,45572,48451,39989,37260,48579,46063,53148,73143,42891,71214,73170,72131,52848,42276,33729,35082,39602,33516,40832,35500,31063,45466,32378,31655,71941,62534,135856,121901,88039,60532,45914,54186,53669,69676,69252,54564,49764,50749,52604,40192,37199,36444,45876,68641,82116,78852,134783,69486,51961,93948,56414,40340,39604,48784,41758,51879,45443,50790],"flat_reference_value":16894.42581186994,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[19000.0,14500.0,13500.0,12500.0,12000.0,11500.0,11000.0,11500.0,12000.0,13000.0,27000.0,24500.0,18500.0,15500.0,14500.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13500.0,14000.0,15000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,15500.0,16000.0,22500.0,17500.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15500.0,17000.0,16500.0,16000.0,17500.0,24500.0,28500.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,26000.0,48000.0,62000.0,34000.0,24500.0,23000.0,22000.0,21500.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,21000.0,20500.0,20000.0,19500.0,19000.0,21000.0,27000.0,32000.0,34000.0,37000.0,65000.0,39000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,24500.0,23000.0,22500.0,23000.0,24000.0,24500.0,26000.0,25500.0,24500.0,35000.0,57000.0,115000.0,62000.0,39000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28500.0,32000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25500.0,29000.0,31000.0,27500.0,26000.0,26500.0,28000.0,55000.0,78000.0,105000.0,46000.0,34000.0,30000.0,28500.0,27500.0,27000.0,27500.0,30000.0,29000.0,30000.0,34000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[68000.0,42000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,31000.0,34000.0,145000.0,115000.0,78000.0,48000.0,42000.0,38000.0,41000.0,37000.0,39000.0,36000.0,35000.0,37000.0,42000.0,64000.0,52000.0,39000.0,38000.0,36000.0,58000.0,46000.0,44000.0,76000.0,49000.0,41000.0,39000.0,43000.0,46000.0,38000.0,41000.0,44000.0,42000.0,40000.0,43000.0,54000.0,88000.0,72000.0,68000.0,58000.0,55000.0,46000.0,92000.0,235000.0,245000.0,125000.0,78000.0,66000.0,62000.0,58000.0,82000.0,74000.0,68000.0,54000.0,51000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,52000.0,61000.0,135000.0,148000.0,125000.0,215000.0,110000.0,128000.0,82000.0,64000.0,58000.0,54000.0,62000.0,55000.0,59000.0,53000.0,61000.0,58000.0,62000.0,54000.0,88000.0,135000.0,385000.0,210000.0,135000.0,86000.0,68000.0,60000.0,58000.0,62000.0,78000.0,56000.0,54000.0,51000.0,52000.0,49000.0,51000.0,48000.0,50000.0,54000.0,135000.0,155000.0,130000.0,72000.0,88000.0,145000.0,84000.0,62000.0,56000.0,53000.0,52000.0,54000.0,58000.0,64000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[22400.0,21800.0,23500.0,22100.0,24000.0,21500.0,22800.0,23100.0,24700.0,26200.0,46500.0,37200.0,28400.0,25100.0,26800.0,24900.0,25300.0,23800.0,24200.0,26100.0,27400.0,28100.0,29500.0,31200.0,27900.0,26300.0,27100.0,25800.0,26400.0,28900.0,31500.0,39400.0,29800.0,28500.0,29100.0,30400.0,28200.0,26900.0,27500.0,28100.0,29400.0,28700.0,30200.0,33100.0,36500.0,42800.0,33400.0,31800.0,29700.0,28500.0,41200.0,82500.0,96400.0,54100.0,41800.0,37200.0,35400.0,36800.0,38100.0,40500.0,53200.0,36100.0,35400.0,34200.0,33800.0,32900.0,35100.0,37800.0,46500.0,49200.0,68400.0,112000.0,66500.0,56100.0,48700.0,42300.0,39500.0,37800.0,36900.0,38400.0,41200.0,40100.0,39800.0,41500.0,40200.0,39100.0,56400.0,94800.0,162500.0,118200.0,68400.0,52100.0,47300.0,44800.0,43500.0,45100.0,44200.0,41800.0,42500.0,40900.0,41300.0,39800.0,38900.0,40200.0,41500.0,45100.0,62400.0,66800.0,54200.0,43800.0,41500.0,39800.0,38900.0,37500.0,38100.0,39400.0,40200.0,41500.0,42100.0,43600.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9500.0,9300.0,9500.0,10000.0,9800.0,10500.0,10500.0,9800.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,9300.0,9000.0,9000.0,9300.0,9500.0,9500.0,9800.0,10000.0,9500.0,9800.0,9500.0,9500.0,13000.0,14500.0,13000.0,11000.0,10500.0,10000.0,10500.0,10500.0,9800.0,10000.0,10000.0,9800.0,9500.0,10000.0,15000.0,17000.0,20000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,13000.0,32000.0,38000.0,22000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,14000.0,16000.0,15000.0,20000.0,26000.0,34000.0,20000.0,15500.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13000.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13500.0,13500.0,13000.0,24000.0,36000.0,42000.0,22000.0,17000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13500.0,13000.0,13500.0,13500.0,12500.0,13000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[75000.0,50000.0,48000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,36000.0,40000.0,95000.0,90000.0,70000.0,50000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,38000.0,40000.0,45000.0,80000.0,65000.0,48000.0,45000.0,42000.0,42000.0,50000.0,55000.0,50000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,50000.0,50000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,45000.0,60000.0,75000.0,70000.0,65000.0,65000.0,65000.0,55000.0,85000.0,220000.0,260000.0,130000.0,90000.0,75000.0,65000.0,65000.0,70000.0,70000.0,75000.0,65000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,70000.0,110000.0,130000.0,200000.0,230000.0,240000.0,130000.0,100000.0,90000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,75000.0,75000.0,80000.0,80000.0,85000.0,90000.0,95000.0,85000.0,150000.0,330000.0,400000.0,230000.0,130000.0,100000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,95000.0,100000.0,85000.0,80000.0,80000.0,75000.0,75000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,70000.0,110000.0,170000.0,200000.0,130000.0,95000.0,100000.0,85000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,70000.0,75000.0,75000.0,80000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[4640.0,4210.0,4470.0,5650.0,4380.0,4660.0,4290.0,4180.0,4890.0,4430.0,4360.0,5140.0,5360.0,5080.0,4720.0,4910.0,4650.0,4820.0,4510.0,4590.0,5180.0,4860.0,4740.0,4930.0,4760.0,4590.0,4720.0,4640.0,4780.0,6320.0,6540.0,6080.0,5420.0,5260.0,5180.0,8970.0,7040.0,5690.0,5380.0,5260.0,5340.0,5470.0,6010.0,8830.0,8610.0,8020.0,6540.0,5780.0,5460.0,5380.0,15270.0,24810.0,11930.0,8140.0,7560.0,6890.0,6620.0,6780.0,6410.0,6690.0,6240.0,6080.0,5970.0,6050.0,5930.0,6110.0,6020.0,6470.0,6830.0,10940.0,11380.0,10470.0,7890.0,6620.0,6410.0,6570.0,6360.0,6280.0,6140.0,6360.0,6940.0,6580.0,6470.0,6760.0,6690.0,6580.0,11870.0,14260.0,15830.0,13640.0,9270.0,7960.0,7720.0,7540.0,7360.0,7180.0,6970.0,6780.0,6860.0,6740.0,6830.0,6720.0,6610.0,6840.0,7390.0,8610.0,11270.0,10430.0,9640.0,7590.0,6680.0,6410.0,6170.0,5960.0,5780.0,5520.0,5940.0,5470.0,5280.0,5140.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[21487.0,13452.0,10833.0,9234.0,8761.0,7912.0,8034.0,8456.0,9421.0,9187.0,9764.0,11532.0,10234.0,8945.0,8521.0,8133.0,8298.0,7745.0,7612.0,7988.0,8834.0,9021.0,9456.0,12874.0,9632.0,8721.0,8934.0,8612.0,8955.0,10842.0,11237.0,24512.0,13564.0,10789.0,9845.0,9382.0,10212.0,9411.0,9678.0,9934.0,10123.0,9721.0,10245.0,14678.0,15432.0,18245.0,11567.0,10893.0,11234.0,10987.0,14532.0,36284.0,29873.0,18234.0,14211.0,13456.0,13987.0,14562.0,13894.0,12983.0,13245.0,12112.0,12456.0,11892.0,12341.0,11768.0,11543.0,12874.0,14982.0,19453.0,22871.0,26134.0,14123.0,12987.0,13654.0,17234.0,19382.0,15234.0,13112.0,12945.0,13678.0,13912.0,13456.0,12187.0,14321.0,15234.0,26873.0,39542.0,58317.0,31245.0,20873.0,17456.0,16234.0,15872.0,15123.0,13984.0,16234.0,15112.0,15456.0,14892.0,15234.0,14112.0,13874.0,14321.0,17984.0,16543.0,15211.0,13789.0,15234.0,13987.0,14562.0,14123.0,14678.0,13456.0,12987.0,13234.0,14892.0,15123.0,14356.0,12874.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[8900.0,8400.0,8100.0,7800.0,7700.0,7400.0,7200.0,7600.0,8600.0,9800.0,8900.0,9400.0,9200.0,8800.0,10300.0,8700.0,8400.0,8100.0,7900.0,8300.0,8900.0,9400.0,9700.0,10200.0,9900.0,9300.0,9100.0,9500.0,11300.0,9700.0,8900.0,9300.0,9900.0,10300.0,12500.0,11700.0,11200.0,10800.0,10500.0,10200.0,10700.0,10100.0,10500.0,14900.0,15800.0,17400.0,28600.0,21400.0,14800.0,13500.0,12900.0,33500.0,23600.0,16300.0,14500.0,15900.0,14300.0,14900.0,15700.0,16500.0,15300.0,14900.0,14500.0,14300.0,14700.0,14200.0,18700.0,19900.0,15700.0,26800.0,33100.0,28600.0,16300.0,19900.0,16500.0,15900.0,15500.0,15000.0,15300.0,15900.0,16500.0,17300.0,17900.0,18700.0,17700.0,17300.0,37500.0,45200.0,52600.0,27600.0,21800.0,19700.0,20500.0,21300.0,22100.0,21700.0,18500.0,17900.0,31800.0,21700.0,18300.0,16900.0,16300.0,16700.0,17500.0,18300.0,22500.0,20900.0,18300.0,16500.0,15900.0,15300.0,15700.0,14900.0,15500.0,16400.0,15800.0,16300.0,16900.0,17800.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2500.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,14000.0,11000.0,6000.0,3500.0,3000.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,3600.0,3800.0,5000.0,3500.0,3300.0,3400.0,3500.0,4000.0,6500.0,8000.0,9000.0,8500.0,7000.0,5500.0,5000.0,4500.0,4300.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,5000.0,9000.0,11000.0,10000.0,7500.0,6500.0,6000.0,6200.0,7000.0,22000.0,25000.0,15000.0,9000.0,10000.0,9000.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,7000.0,7000.0,7500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8500.0,12000.0,15000.0,14000.0,22000.0,30000.0,25000.0,15000.0,12000.0,10000.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,9000.0,9500.0,10000.0,10000.0,11000.0,12000.0,30000.0,60000.0,85000.0,35000.0,20000.0,15000.0,13000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,10000.0,9500.0,9500.0,9000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8500.0,9000.0,10000.0,16000.0,18000.0,14000.0,11000.0,9000.0,8500.0,8500.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0,8000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[1850.0,1750.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,1650.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,3200.0,2700.0,2100.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,1950.0,2000.0,1850.0,1900.0,2100.0,2200.0,2150.0,2200.0,2300.0,2150.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2600.0,3000.0,2800.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,2700.0,2600.0,2800.0,2700.0,3800.0,3400.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2850.0,3000.0,3050.0,3000.0,3100.0,3200.0,3100.0,3300.0,3200.0,3500.0,3400.0,3200.0,3300.0,3400.0,4200.0,4500.0,4100.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,3600.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,3600.0,3900.0,4000.0,3900.0,3800.0,4000.0,3900.0,4300.0,5200.0,5000.0,4300.0,4000.0,4100.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4500.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4400.0,4500.0,4800.0,4900.0,6200.0,5900.0,5500.0,4800.0,4900.0,5000.0,5100.0,5200.0,4900.0,5000.0,5300.0,5400.0,5300.0,5400.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4700.0,3400.0,2700.0,2630.0,2570.0,2500.0,2390.0,2310.0,2600.0,2730.0,32000.0,15000.0,7800.0,5200.0,3900.0,3330.0,3270.0,3170.0,3040.0,2940.0,3300.0,3470.0,3500.0,55000.0,20000.0,10000.0,6500.0,4340.0,4260.0,24000.0,13000.0,8200.0,5600.0,4520.0,4560.0,4090.0,4840.0,4700.0,4890.0,4750.0,4650.0,4510.0,34000.0,16000.0,9000.0,6200.0,4980.0,4470.0,5460.0,5300.0,5510.0,5350.0,5250.0,5090.0,4880.0,4720.0,5300.0,5570.0,5620.0,5040.0,6490.0,6300.0,6550.0,6360.0,6240.0,6050.0,8000.0,7000.0,13000.0,55000.0,30000.0,16000.0,5870.0,5700.0,5930.0,5760.0,5640.0,5470.0,5240.0,5070.0,5700.0,5990.0,6040.0,5420.0,7110.0,6900.0,45000.0,34000.0,30000.0,18000.0,15000.0,11000.0,8500.0,7250.0,7310.0,6560.0,8500.0,5900.0,6140.0,5960.0,5840.0,5660.0,5430.0,5250.0,5900.0,6200.0,6250.0,5610.0,5460.0,5300.0,5510.0,5350.0,5250.0,5090.0,4880.0,4720.0,5300.0,5570.0,5620.0,5040.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[720.0,680.0,760.0,700.0,760.0,820.0,670.0,610.0,720.0,790.0,750.0,690.0,1100.0,1350.0,900.0,850.0,900.0,920.0,800.0,760.0,1040.0,1120.0,1020.0,890.0,920.0,900.0,1300.0,950.0,1150.0,3300.0,3000.0,2650.0,2300.0,2250.0,2050.0,1850.0,1850.0,1750.0,1950.0,2100.0,4000.0,3200.0,2700.0,2450.0,2200.0,2050.0,1850.0,1700.0,2600.0,2250.0,3600.0,2800.0,2500.0,2350.0,3300.0,2250.0,1950.0,1900.0,1800.0,1750.0,1750.0,1650.0,1750.0,1850.0,2050.0,1900.0,1700.0,1550.0,1700.0,2500.0,2250.0,2100.0,2250.0,3200.0,3600.0,3400.0,3900.0,13500.0,7200.0,5900.0,4600.0,4100.0,3950.0,3500.0,3400.0,3100.0,3300.0,5000.0,6000.0,4600.0,7600.0,6200.0,4500.0,4800.0,6600.0,5200.0,4300.0,3800.0,3700.0,3800.0,3500.0,4700.0,3900.0,3300.0,3500.0,9500.0,7200.0,6900.0,8600.0,4800.0,4000.0,3600.0,3400.0,4600.0,3700.0,3100.0,2900.0,2800.0,2500.0,2300.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[24000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,22000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,30000.0,31000.0,29000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,30000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,34000.0,42000.0,38000.0,31000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[1000.0,940.0,1020.0,1080.0,1150.0,1320.0,1180.0,1100.0,1210.0,1400.0,1580.0,1620.0,1120.0,1070.0,1140.0,1210.0,1280.0,1470.0,1620.0,1430.0,1380.0,1520.0,1680.0,1760.0,1260.0,1210.0,1280.0,1330.0,1390.0,1460.0,1420.0,1330.0,1470.0,1880.0,2080.0,1890.0,1420.0,1350.0,1400.0,1480.0,1550.0,1620.0,1570.0,1460.0,1520.0,1650.0,2240.0,1970.0,1460.0,1410.0,1640.0,2320.0,2130.0,1900.0,1790.0,1720.0,1840.0,1990.0,2100.0,2000.0,1680.0,1620.0,1710.0,1780.0,1900.0,1940.0,1830.0,1780.0,2080.0,3150.0,2680.0,2220.0,1960.0,1870.0,2000.0,2070.0,2130.0,2180.0,2070.0,2000.0,2220.0,3600.0,5500.0,7800.0,9800.0,8200.0,5600.0,3700.0,2800.0,2550.0,2380.0,2260.0,2320.0,2500.0,2680.0,2500.0,2100.0,1970.0,2060.0,2150.0,2230.0,2280.0,2400.0,4100.0,3000.0,2550.0,2400.0,2250.0,2050.0,1950.0,2030.0,2130.0,2220.0,2300.0,2400.0,2500.0,2400.0,2550.0,2650.0,2450.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[1200.0,1100.0,1150.0,1120.0,1200.0,1180.0,1250.0,1200.0,1260.0,1350.0,2300.0,1850.0,1500.0,1350.0,1400.0,1320.0,1380.0,1350.0,1420.0,1400.0,1450.0,1500.0,1550.0,1400.0,1350.0,1300.0,1400.0,1380.0,1450.0,1900.0,2500.0,2200.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1550.0,1550.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1650.0,1600.0,1750.0,2800.0,3600.0,2900.0,2100.0,1800.0,1750.0,1650.0,1850.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,1850.0,1800.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1850.0,1800.0,2500.0,3100.0,2800.0,4300.0,4000.0,3000.0,2300.0,2100.0,2600.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1950.0,2050.0,2200.0,2050.0,1950.0,1850.0,1900.0,1850.0,3000.0,4300.0,6200.0,3900.0,2600.0,2300.0,2500.0,2200.0,2100.0,1950.0,2000.0,1900.0,2050.0,2000.0,2100.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,2050.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1850.0,2000.0,1950.0,2050.0,1950.0,1900.0,1950.0,2100.0,2050.0,1950.0,1850.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[900.0,870.0,940.0,910.0,880.0,820.0,800.0,780.0,870.0,920.0,950.0,1000.0,920.0,880.0,950.0,930.0,900.0,840.0,810.0,790.0,880.0,930.0,960.0,1000.0,960.0,930.0,980.0,950.0,920.0,1300.0,1500.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,930.0,1000.0,980.0,1020.0,1000.0,960.0,1050.0,1100.0,1400.0,1200.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1050.0,1200.0,1250.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1150.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1050.0,1000.0,1020.0,1000.0,980.0,950.0,930.0,900.0,1100.0,1300.0,1200.0,1050.0,1000.0,980.0,1000.0,1100.0,1000.0,950.0,920.0,900.0,1000.0,950.0,920.0,900.0,1000.0,1100.0,1500.0,1400.0,1700.0,1300.0,1200.0,1100.0,1300.0,1000.0,950.0,900.0,950.0,920.0,900.0,880.0,860.0,850.0,830.0,800.0,900.0,880.0,860.0,820.0,850.0,830.0,820.0,800.0,790.0,780.0,760.0,740.0,800.0,780.0,770.0,750.0]}},{"title":"Akihito","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Akihito\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[92837,70877,72009,75213,78204,61686,113800,160990,64224,86291,79415,100430,100475,92511,83061,83648,146564,96339,71093,73829,96355,83799,90107,124241,82234,86738,80841,80776,86730,88882,92171,85359,81218,113206,91383,121325,108035,80283,96431,343526,275524,66082,63927,68426,59756,119923,88262,69852,70423,56226,69754,83131,75926,59724,69474,111849,85806,70385,82169,84160,79796,86703,121863,108137,86916,96471,130079,100616,94994,190986,103540,79127,86080,79197,79704,78964,73077,72847,201460,69006,152054,81214,71698,80021,81882,72934,84437,87853,102436,88740,104134,113054,83626,72450,79163,100247,109797,91203,111012,111690,98394,106649,89427,88812,89348,80575,79367,79830,81805,72853,81649,82086,75405,72077,78930,93286,103619,114773,83905,74958],"flat_reference_value":16819.119890578582,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[28000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,28000.0,27000.0,160000.0,230000.0,44000.0,35000.0,32000.0,39000.0,33000.0,30000.0,31000.0,32000.0,62000.0,72000.0,34000.0,32000.0,30000.0,31000.0,33000.0,105000.0,39000.0,32000.0,33000.0,34000.0,35000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,33000.0,54000.0,44000.0,47000.0,53000.0,440000.0,275000.0,57000.0,43000.0,39000.0,37000.0,95000.0,47000.0,41000.0,36000.0,33000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,27000.0,28000.0,27000.0,34000.0,29000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,25000.0,29000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,32000.0,28000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,39000.0,27000.0,25000.0,32000.0,28000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,36000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,31000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,28000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,30000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[58000.0,52000.0,55000.0,54000.0,59000.0,51000.0,165000.0,215000.0,62000.0,58000.0,57000.0,72000.0,64000.0,53000.0,58000.0,56000.0,74000.0,108000.0,55000.0,63000.0,54000.0,57000.0,61000.0,98000.0,62000.0,54000.0,57000.0,56000.0,58000.0,52000.0,55000.0,66000.0,54000.0,59000.0,61000.0,92000.0,78000.0,72000.0,88000.0,580000.0,520000.0,76000.0,58000.0,62000.0,54000.0,145000.0,64000.0,56000.0,49000.0,43000.0,42000.0,44000.0,45000.0,38000.0,39000.0,46000.0,39000.0,38000.0,42000.0,44000.0,41000.0,36000.0,38000.0,37000.0,36000.0,34000.0,54000.0,47000.0,37000.0,42000.0,35000.0,39000.0,36000.0,32000.0,34000.0,33000.0,33000.0,31000.0,48000.0,39000.0,56000.0,34000.0,32000.0,37000.0,35000.0,30000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,29000.0,34000.0,41000.0,30000.0,31000.0,30000.0,48000.0,34000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,34000.0,28000.0,32000.0,34000.0,36000.0,31000.0,27000.0,29000.0,28000.0,46000.0,28000.0,33000.0,36000.0,28000.0,30000.0,28000.0,35000.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[135000.0,120000.0,130000.0,125000.0,140000.0,125000.0,380000.0,890000.0,210000.0,160000.0,150000.0,180000.0,145000.0,130000.0,135000.0,140000.0,180000.0,290000.0,160000.0,140000.0,135000.0,140000.0,155000.0,240000.0,150000.0,130000.0,140000.0,135000.0,130000.0,125000.0,120000.0,135000.0,125000.0,140000.0,150000.0,290000.0,180000.0,190000.0,250000.0,1950000.0,1100000.0,220000.0,140000.0,125000.0,120000.0,210000.0,150000.0,130000.0,95000.0,85000.0,75000.0,80000.0,75000.0,68000.0,65000.0,68000.0,64000.0,62000.0,60000.0,75000.0,65000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,59000.0,58000.0,75000.0,72000.0,60000.0,58000.0,56000.0,70000.0,58000.0,52000.0,54000.0,53000.0,51000.0,50000.0,68000.0,55000.0,115000.0,65000.0,52000.0,62000.0,54000.0,48000.0,51000.0,50000.0,58000.0,48000.0,46000.0,47000.0,45000.0,46000.0,48000.0,72000.0,78000.0,52000.0,49000.0,53000.0,48000.0,46000.0,45000.0,44000.0,43000.0,45000.0,44000.0,55000.0,48000.0,43000.0,45000.0,46000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,42000.0,41000.0,50000.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[58000.0,55000.0,57000.0,56000.0,55000.0,54000.0,210000.0,290000.0,95000.0,80000.0,85000.0,95000.0,90000.0,65000.0,58000.0,60000.0,62000.0,75000.0,55000.0,53000.0,52000.0,50000.0,52000.0,110000.0,65000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,47000.0,46000.0,47000.0,46000.0,48000.0,50000.0,70000.0,75000.0,62000.0,70000.0,560000.0,230000.0,65000.0,52000.0,48000.0,45000.0,70000.0,55000.0,48000.0,42000.0,38000.0,38000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,35000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0,34000.0,38000.0,35000.0,32000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,33000.0,31000.0,32000.0,38000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,32000.0,28000.0,30000.0,27000.0,27000.0,30000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,27000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,34000.0,27000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,27000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,25000.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[125000.0,105000.0,105000.0,110000.0,115000.0,105000.0,260000.0,330000.0,125000.0,125000.0,120000.0,150000.0,140000.0,115000.0,120000.0,115000.0,140000.0,145000.0,110000.0,115000.0,105000.0,105000.0,125000.0,190000.0,125000.0,110000.0,110000.0,115000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,110000.0,100000.0,105000.0,105000.0,150000.0,160000.0,140000.0,180000.0,950000.0,800000.0,170000.0,130000.0,125000.0,110000.0,260000.0,150000.0,130000.0,125000.0,115000.0,110000.0,120000.0,120000.0,100000.0,100000.0,105000.0,95000.0,95000.0,100000.0,110000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,120000.0,100000.0,95000.0,125000.0,115000.0,100000.0,110000.0,95000.0,105000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,90000.0,90000.0,95000.0,140000.0,100000.0,260000.0,105000.0,95000.0,105000.0,100000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,115000.0,85000.0,85000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,100000.0,100000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,85000.0,90000.0,85000.0,90000.0,80000.0,80000.0,80000.0,90000.0,90000.0,80000.0,80000.0,85000.0,85000.0,80000.0,80000.0,90000.0,80000.0,80000.0,80000.0,88000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[72000.0,61000.0,63000.0,68000.0,62000.0,59000.0,61000.0,300000.0,88000.0,70000.0,64000.0,85000.0,74000.0,61000.0,63000.0,66000.0,62000.0,95000.0,68000.0,92000.0,70000.0,69000.0,72000.0,130000.0,86000.0,63000.0,66000.0,72000.0,67000.0,66000.0,64000.0,95000.0,69000.0,70000.0,68000.0,90000.0,95000.0,72000.0,105000.0,800000.0,1150000.0,170000.0,140000.0,125000.0,112000.0,155000.0,100000.0,95000.0,84000.0,68000.0,88000.0,82000.0,76000.0,64000.0,61000.0,70000.0,63000.0,66000.0,62000.0,74000.0,76000.0,61000.0,64000.0,70000.0,64000.0,56000.0,62000.0,76000.0,60000.0,60000.0,56000.0,70000.0,74000.0,60000.0,61000.0,68000.0,62000.0,55000.0,120000.0,88000.0,180000.0,78000.0,60000.0,72000.0,72000.0,60000.0,61000.0,70000.0,65000.0,56000.0,60000.0,64000.0,60000.0,61000.0,64000.0,92000.0,78000.0,62000.0,62000.0,78000.0,70000.0,58000.0,62000.0,66000.0,62000.0,62000.0,60000.0,74000.0,76000.0,61000.0,62000.0,72000.0,66000.0,57000.0,61000.0,64000.0,61000.0,61000.0,59000.0,72000.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[27845.0,22310.0,26904.0,24672.0,23518.0,21940.0,68420.0,142350.0,37920.0,26115.0,25830.0,28410.0,26733.0,21940.0,25812.0,24103.0,22476.0,54280.0,19845.0,20512.0,22108.0,23392.0,24667.0,49730.0,27418.0,21873.0,26204.0,25091.0,22908.0,21540.0,20113.0,19764.0,22689.0,23875.0,25342.0,38940.0,46120.0,53860.0,84730.0,587420.0,384150.0,58320.0,18940.0,18210.0,15830.0,21460.0,15220.0,17890.0,15842.0,13412.0,17965.0,17284.0,15610.0,14083.0,11642.0,11918.0,12754.0,13620.0,14305.0,15120.0,15234.0,11987.0,14512.0,14915.0,12764.0,12103.0,12340.0,11208.0,12471.0,14287.0,13792.0,15034.0,14892.0,11745.0,14103.0,13276.0,12538.0,11903.0,11042.0,10987.0,29640.0,15120.0,13410.0,15876.0,14208.0,11326.0,13684.0,13042.0,17932.0,11410.0,10684.0,10512.0,11789.0,12445.0,13118.0,36720.0,14520.0,11082.0,13264.0,14180.0,11764.0,11203.0,10318.0,10096.0,11452.0,12108.0,12734.0,14893.0,13812.0,10842.0,13104.0,12561.0,11493.0,10977.0,10152.0,9986.0,11208.0,12034.0,12588.0,14210.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[122000.0,115000.0,118000.0,112000.0,106000.0,99000.0,96000.0,615000.0,198000.0,131000.0,121000.0,115000.0,112000.0,105000.0,108000.0,111000.0,103000.0,156000.0,105000.0,121000.0,101000.0,98000.0,103000.0,142000.0,121000.0,111000.0,115000.0,121000.0,118000.0,113000.0,115000.0,138000.0,128000.0,131000.0,152000.0,183000.0,180000.0,183000.0,242000.0,1850000.0,895000.0,240000.0,179000.0,169000.0,172000.0,162000.0,135000.0,141000.0,121000.0,108000.0,101000.0,145000.0,101000.0,87000.0,82000.0,84000.0,80000.0,77000.0,78000.0,94000.0,80000.0,72000.0,72000.0,90000.0,74000.0,67000.0,70000.0,66000.0,64000.0,62000.0,64000.0,74000.0,67000.0,62000.0,62000.0,74000.0,60000.0,57000.0,58000.0,60000.0,59000.0,57000.0,57000.0,70000.0,60000.0,57000.0,57000.0,68000.0,57000.0,55000.0,56000.0,57000.0,54000.0,57000.0,60000.0,115000.0,74000.0,64000.0,60000.0,70000.0,58000.0,54000.0,55000.0,54000.0,52000.0,54000.0,54000.0,67000.0,54000.0,125000.0,74000.0,77000.0,57000.0,52000.0,52000.0,54000.0,52000.0,52000.0,54000.0,64000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[32000.0,33000.0,35000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,34000.0,240000.0,60000.0,42000.0,38000.0,45000.0,50000.0,43000.0,41000.0,40000.0,43000.0,95000.0,50000.0,45000.0,42000.0,40000.0,39000.0,95000.0,50000.0,44000.0,42000.0,41000.0,40000.0,39000.0,40000.0,39000.0,38000.0,39000.0,39000.0,55000.0,80000.0,70000.0,90000.0,850000.0,550000.0,120000.0,80000.0,70000.0,65000.0,95000.0,65000.0,75000.0,45000.0,40000.0,40000.0,38000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,34000.0,32000.0,32000.0,32000.0,40000.0,34000.0,31000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,38000.0,31000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,26000.0,26000.0,26000.0,38000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,130000.0,45000.0,33000.0,31000.0,30000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,45000.0,33000.0,30000.0,29000.0,29000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,27000.0,38000.0],"meta/muse-ember":[41000.0,39000.0,42000.0,40000.0,68000.0,46000.0,38000.0,145000.0,56000.0,41000.0,38000.0,58000.0,52000.0,58000.0,47000.0,36000.0,34000.0,60000.0,35000.0,39000.0,34000.0,33000.0,36000.0,82000.0,34000.0,33000.0,34000.0,33000.0,32000.0,46000.0,31000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,31000.0,54000.0,38000.0,46000.0,36000.0,340000.0,185000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,21000.0,42000.0,36000.0,43000.0,23000.0,21000.0,20000.0,19000.0,18000.0,29000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,18000.0,38000.0,19000.0,17000.0,18000.0,17000.0,16000.0,22000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,32000.0,16000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,15000.0,14000.0,14000.0,30000.0,15000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13000.0,13000.0,13000.0,12000.0,13000.0,13000.0,16000.0,62000.0,14000.0,12000.0,12000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11000.0,11000.0,15000.0,18000.0,26000.0,12000.0,11000.0,19000.0,14000.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,22000.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[194000.0,189000.0,194000.0,191000.0,189000.0,185000.0,172000.0,560000.0,191000.0,194000.0,192000.0,213000.0,205000.0,199000.0,205000.0,201000.0,199000.0,195000.0,181000.0,181000.0,201000.0,205000.0,203000.0,430000.0,215000.0,209000.0,215000.0,211000.0,209000.0,205000.0,191000.0,191000.0,211000.0,215000.0,213000.0,360000.0,300000.0,270000.0,370000.0,2400000.0,1170000.0,440000.0,285000.0,245000.0,227000.0,430000.0,229000.0,286000.0,194000.0,189000.0,194000.0,191000.0,189000.0,185000.0,172000.0,172000.0,191000.0,194000.0,192000.0,213000.0,179000.0,173000.0,179000.0,175000.0,173000.0,170000.0,198000.0,190000.0,175000.0,179000.0,177000.0,196000.0,163000.0,158000.0,163000.0,160000.0,158000.0,155000.0,144000.0,144000.0,160000.0,163000.0,161000.0,178000.0,152000.0,148000.0,152000.0,149000.0,148000.0,145000.0,135000.0,135000.0,149000.0,152000.0,151000.0,167000.0,147000.0,143000.0,147000.0,144000.0,143000.0,140000.0,130000.0,130000.0,144000.0,147000.0,146000.0,161000.0,142000.0,138000.0,142000.0,139000.0,138000.0,135000.0,126000.0,126000.0,139000.0,142000.0,140000.0,155000.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[4700.0,4100.0,4400.0,4900.0,6000.0,5000.0,4500.0,68000.0,7000.0,5800.0,5200.0,10500.0,124000.0,18500.0,7500.0,6500.0,8200.0,6600.0,6100.0,6400.0,7600.0,41000.0,14000.0,11000.0,7600.0,6500.0,42000.0,15000.0,11000.0,7000.0,6000.0,6500.0,7000.0,18000.0,9500.0,12500.0,32000.0,12000.0,15000.0,760000.0,1720000.0,285000.0,118000.0,82000.0,62000.0,120000.0,78000.0,48000.0,25000.0,18500.0,15500.0,14500.0,30000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,17000.0,21000.0,19000.0,35000.0,21000.0,16000.0,14000.0,14000.0,27000.0,17000.0,38000.0,23000.0,17000.0,20000.0,18000.0,31000.0,21000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,28000.0,17000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,20000.0,19000.0,34000.0,22000.0,16000.0,15000.0,16000.0,29000.0,18000.0,15000.0,16000.0,17000.0,20000.0,20000.0,68000.0,23000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,28000.0,18000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,21000.0,20000.0,42000.0,24000.0,17000.0,16000.0,17000.0,29000.0,19000.0,16000.0,17000.0,18000.0,21000.0,21000.0,44000.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[85000.0,80000.0,80000.0,85000.0,80000.0,75000.0,90000.0,260000.0,140000.0,100000.0,95000.0,100000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,85000.0,140000.0,110000.0,100000.0,95000.0,95000.0,100000.0,190000.0,130000.0,110000.0,100000.0,100000.0,100000.0,95000.0,90000.0,90000.0,90000.0,95000.0,100000.0,150000.0,150000.0,130000.0,140000.0,550000.0,420000.0,140000.0,100000.0,90000.0,85000.0,85000.0,90000.0,90000.0,75000.0,70000.0,70000.0,65000.0,60000.0,60000.0,60000.0,58000.0,58000.0,58000.0,58000.0,62000.0,60000.0,55000.0,55000.0,52000.0,52000.0,50000.0,50000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,52000.0,50000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,48000.0,52000.0,48000.0,46000.0,46000.0,46000.0,48000.0,48000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,44000.0,42000.0,42000.0,42000.0,44000.0,44000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0,42000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,40000.0,42000.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[37500.0,27800.0,30200.0,33600.0,35400.0,29700.0,31500.0,34900.0,33100.0,34700.0,36200.0,43400.0,38880.0,30960.0,33840.0,36720.0,38520.0,33480.0,35640.0,37440.0,36720.0,38520.0,40320.0,52200.0,46000.0,36800.0,38100.0,41400.0,45500.0,40300.0,42600.0,45200.0,48000.0,54800.0,63200.0,88500.0,172500.0,75000.0,135000.0,1190000.0,2120000.0,275000.0,110000.0,81500.0,73200.0,115000.0,88400.0,97000.0,39200.0,24500.0,25100.0,27300.0,35800.0,22400.0,23900.0,25000.0,24300.0,25600.0,27000.0,38900.0,32400.0,21000.0,20600.0,23200.0,27900.0,19400.0,20200.0,22100.0,22900.0,61500.0,26800.0,34300.0,27800.0,18300.0,17900.0,19700.0,23800.0,16400.0,17500.0,18600.0,18900.0,20700.0,22300.0,30200.0,25400.0,17000.0,16400.0,18100.0,21800.0,15400.0,16200.0,17300.0,17800.0,19600.0,21000.0,28300.0,24300.0,16100.0,15700.0,17400.0,20900.0,14600.0,15500.0,16300.0,16800.0,18400.0,19700.0,26900.0,23100.0,15300.0,14700.0,16400.0,19200.0,13800.0,14500.0,15300.0,15900.0,17600.0,19000.0,25800.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[24000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,28000.0,26000.0,92000.0,39000.0,29000.0,31000.0,28000.0,27000.0,31000.0,27000.0,29000.0,33000.0,43000.0,31000.0,29000.0,30000.0,32000.0,31000.0,49000.0,29000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,30000.0,32000.0,29000.0,28000.0,29000.0,30000.0,33000.0,42000.0,34000.0,30000.0,36000.0,105000.0,185000.0,58000.0,39000.0,35000.0,38000.0,46000.0,53000.0,34000.0,28000.0,26000.0,26000.0,25000.0,26000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,26000.0,27000.0,28000.0,30000.0,25000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,28000.0,24000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,24000.0,26000.0,23000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,22000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,21000.0,19000.0,20000.0,20000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,21000.0,22000.0,23000.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[24000.0,23000.0,24000.0,24000.0,25000.0,26000.0,40000.0,90000.0,45000.0,32000.0,28000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,28000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,21000.0,23000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,26000.0,25000.0,24000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,23000.0,25000.0,30000.0,35000.0,70000.0,350000.0,180000.0,60000.0,40000.0,35000.0,35000.0,70000.0,45000.0,35000.0,30000.0,25000.0,25000.0,24000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,22000.0,25000.0,24000.0,22000.0,22000.0,21000.0,21000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,20000.0,19000.0,22000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,19000.0,19000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,21000.0,20000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,18000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,20000.0,19000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,17000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,19000.0,18000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,16000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,15000.0,18000.0]}},{"title":"Patrick Whitesell","prompt":"This is a chart-drawing game. The chart shows monthly pageviews of the English Wikipedia article \"Patrick Whitesell\" from 2016-01 to 2025-12 (human visitors only, desktop and mobile combined, as reported by the Wikimedia pageviews API).\n\nDraw the chart from what you know about the subject: its overall popularity, events that would have sent people to the article, seasonality and long-run drift. Give your best estimate of the absolute number of views for every month.\n\nEnd your reply with one JSON object mapping each month (\"YYYY-MM\") to an integer, with all 120 months from 2016-01 to 2025-12 in order.","ground_truth":[5338,3449,3625,3248,2988,3695,20795,8393,5323,5806,7896,8038,9539,6022,5172,4770,5713,5983,7034,7269,6406,7453,6983,5967,6068,4280,5070,5244,4574,5132,5277,5076,5152,9897,4951,6836,206660,85317,20055,34681,18556,12657,28232,24271,16205,15357,11587,17389,46839,37597,13644,17183,18833,13910,19227,16201,14053,12488,14405,25328,16541,32740,35881,26285,57669,35679,66714,24767,21522,32325,54975,42135,46419,22029,18090,21216,18768,12258,17919,22313,23926,21098,37956,20773,32563,17172,20368,44358,151670,45417,26949,42192,28475,21465,71055,37465,54984,32962,39039,48017,29045,27123,27512,22516,38391,24336,30031,64815,174245,38542,66302,121964,64573,491974,138732,42105,20943,22342,23480,25666],"flat_reference_value":16953.438669072537,"predictions":{"openai/gpt-6.1-terra":[9800.0,8700.0,9200.0,8900.0,9500.0,9300.0,8800.0,9100.0,9600.0,10200.0,9400.0,9000.0,10500.0,9800.0,10300.0,9700.0,10900.0,10400.0,9600.0,10100.0,11000.0,11600.0,10200.0,9900.0,11500.0,10800.0,11200.0,10900.0,12000.0,11400.0,10800.0,11200.0,12300.0,13000.0,11900.0,12500.0,280000.0,85000.0,45000.0,105000.0,42000.0,35000.0,32000.0,27000.0,26000.0,34000.0,25000.0,24000.0,26000.0,22000.0,20000.0,19000.0,20000.0,21000.0,19500.0,21000.0,22000.0,25000.0,45000.0,32000.0,28000.0,24000.0,24000.0,26000.0,55000.0,38000.0,28000.0,25000.0,25000.0,27000.0,24000.0,23000.0,25000.0,22000.0,23000.0,22000.0,24000.0,23000.0,22000.0,23000.0,24000.0,25000.0,23000.0,22000.0,27000.0,24000.0,25000.0,24000.0,85000.0,50000.0,35000.0,32000.0,29000.0,30000.0,27000.0,26000.0,30000.0,27000.0,28000.0,42000.0,33000.0,29000.0,28000.0,28000.0,30000.0,31000.0,28000.0,28000.0,32000.0,30000.0,34000.0,38000.0,36000.0,150000.0,85000.0,42000.0,35000.0,34000.0,31000.0,30000.0],"google/gemini-4-carbon":[5200.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,5300.0,5800.0,12400.0,6700.0,5500.0,5200.0,5000.0,4800.0,5600.0,6100.0,5400.0,5100.0,5300.0,5000.0,5200.0,5400.0,5700.0,8900.0,9400.0,6300.0,6500.0,6200.0,6800.0,5700.0,5500.0,5300.0,5400.0,5600.0,5800.0,9200.0,6400.0,6100.0,460000.0,185000.0,38000.0,68000.0,29000.0,21000.0,24000.0,19500.0,18000.0,42000.0,22000.0,17500.0,23000.0,21000.0,14500.0,13000.0,13500.0,12500.0,13200.0,14000.0,12800.0,13500.0,36000.0,16500.0,15000.0,18500.0,15500.0,26000.0,64000.0,22000.0,24000.0,16000.0,14500.0,14000.0,15500.0,14800.0,15200.0,13800.0,14200.0,13000.0,12600.0,12200.0,12800.0,12400.0,12000.0,12500.0,18500.0,13500.0,19000.0,13200.0,13600.0,15800.0,48000.0,21000.0,15500.0,16200.0,13400.0,12800.0,29000.0,15000.0,16500.0,13000.0,14200.0,21500.0,13800.0,12600.0,12400.0,12900.0,12200.0,12500.0,13100.0,16800.0,22000.0,14500.0,23500.0,31000.0,19500.0,98000.0,36000.0,16500.0,13800.0,13000.0,12600.0,13200.0],"google/gemini-3.8-flash":[5100.0,4800.0,5300.0,4900.0,5200.0,4700.0,4600.0,5000.0,5400.0,5100.0,4900.0,4500.0,5300.0,5100.0,5600.0,5200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5100.0,5500.0,6100.0,6300.0,5700.0,5200.0,5900.0,5600.0,6200.0,5800.0,6100.0,5700.0,5500.0,5800.0,6400.0,6200.0,5900.0,6100.0,425000.0,112000.0,46000.0,82000.0,38000.0,27000.0,24000.0,21000.0,19000.0,22000.0,18500.0,17000.0,16500.0,15000.0,13500.0,12800.0,13200.0,12500.0,13000.0,12400.0,13100.0,13800.0,34000.0,18000.0,16000.0,14500.0,15200.0,28000.0,48000.0,22000.0,18000.0,16500.0,15000.0,14200.0,13800.0,14000.0,14800.0,13200.0,14100.0,13500.0,14000.0,12900.0,13400.0,12700.0,13100.0,12800.0,12200.0,12500.0,13800.0,12900.0,13500.0,13100.0,46000.0,24000.0,16500.0,14800.0,13900.0,13200.0,12800.0,12500.0,14200.0,13000.0,13600.0,12900.0,13400.0,12500.0,12800.0,12200.0,12600.0,12100.0,11800.0,11500.0,12600.0,11800.0,12200.0,11700.0,12100.0,11500.0,11900.0,11400.0,11700.0,11300.0,11000.0,10800.0],"claude-opus-5-5":[1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1000.0,1050.0,1100.0,1050.0,1000.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,1050.0,1100.0,1100.0,1050.0,1050.0,42000.0,12000.0,5000.0,4500.0,3500.0,3000.0,3500.0,2800.0,2600.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2600.0,2700.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2800.0,2300.0,2100.0,2600.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,2000.0,1900.0,1900.0,2200.0,2000.0,2000.0,7500.0,3000.0,2500.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2000.0,2100.0,2000.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,5500.0,3000.0,2800.0,5000.0,4500.0,30000.0,8000.0,4000.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,2700.0],"claude-fable-5-2":[12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11000.0,12000.0,11500.0,11500.0,11000.0,11000.0,11500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12000.0,12500.0,12500.0,12500.0,14000.0,14000.0,13000.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,13500.0,14000.0,14000.0,14000.0,14500.0,14500.0,16000.0,480000.0,110000.0,60000.0,70000.0,45000.0,42000.0,45000.0,42000.0,36000.0,40000.0,34000.0,34000.0,40000.0,38000.0,30000.0,32000.0,30000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,40000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,28000.0,28000.0,45000.0,35000.0,55000.0,33000.0,29000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,32000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,28000.0,27000.0,27000.0,30000.0,29000.0,32000.0,30000.0,30000.0,30000.0,75000.0,48000.0,42000.0,42000.0,35000.0,34000.0,40000.0,38000.0,38000.0,36000.0,36000.0,36000.0,34000.0,34000.0,35000.0,36000.0,33000.0,34000.0,34000.0,36000.0,42000.0,38000.0,42000.0,110000.0,55000.0,150000.0,70000.0,45000.0,38000.0,35000.0,33000.0,33000.0],"z-ai/glm-5.3-flash":[3100.0,2900.0,3200.0,3100.0,2800.0,2700.0,2900.0,2600.0,3000.0,3200.0,3100.0,2700.0,3300.0,3100.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3100.0,2800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3300.0,3000.0,3600.0,3500.0,3800.0,3600.0,3400.0,3300.0,3500.0,3200.0,3700.0,3900.0,3800.0,3400.0,280000.0,95000.0,28000.0,42000.0,16000.0,12000.0,11000.0,10000.0,11000.0,22000.0,10000.0,9000.0,6500.0,6000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,18000.0,10000.0,8000.0,8500.0,20000.0,12000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,12000.0,45000.0,15000.0,9000.0,8000.0,8500.0,8000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0,6000.0,6200.0,6000.0,6500.0,6000.0,5800.0,5500.0,5700.0,6000.0,6500.0,5500.0,5500.0,5300.0,5600.0,6500.0,16000.0,10000.0,8000.0,6500.0,7000.0,6200.0,6500.0,5500.0,5800.0,6000.0,6200.0,6300.0,7000.0,6800.0,6500.0,6200.0,6500.0,7000.0,7200.0,6000.0,6500.0,8000.0,7500.0,9000.0,8000.0,45000.0,15000.0,8000.0,7000.0,7500.0,7000.0,6500.0],"meta/muse-spark-1.3":[718.0,673.0,706.0,648.0,695.0,752.0,2684.0,1473.0,812.0,768.0,692.0,608.0,724.0,681.0,792.0,733.0,771.0,808.0,843.0,799.0,862.0,828.0,782.0,639.0,847.0,791.0,883.0,839.0,912.0,953.0,898.0,923.0,978.0,1024.0,968.0,812.0,48732.0,32418.0,14573.0,18346.0,8421.0,5638.0,4822.0,4215.0,3894.0,5137.0,3418.0,2795.0,3046.0,2847.0,3422.0,3589.0,3214.0,2798.0,2643.0,2512.0,2698.0,2843.0,2617.0,2214.0,2698.0,2613.0,2917.0,6824.0,5438.0,3124.0,2893.0,2817.0,2984.0,2942.0,2718.0,2315.0,2694.0,2846.0,3012.0,2948.0,3047.0,2913.0,2748.0,2693.0,2941.0,3098.0,2842.0,2397.0,2813.0,2948.0,3094.0,3217.0,21483.0,9764.0,4821.0,3814.0,3592.0,3718.0,3484.0,2987.0,3412.0,3318.0,3594.0,6237.0,4219.0,3812.0,3597.0,3514.0,3712.0,3894.0,3618.0,3094.0,3618.0,3794.0,5218.0,4127.0,6834.0,38642.0,14187.0,5814.0,4718.0,4312.0,3987.0,3419.0],"xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-pro":[620.0,580.0,640.0,590.0,620.0,560.0,520.0,540.0,580.0,620.0,700.0,600.0,700.0,720.0,780.0,740.0,800.0,760.0,700.0,680.0,760.0,820.0,880.0,760.0,900.0,940.0,980.0,950.0,1050.0,1000.0,920.0,900.0,1000.0,1150.0,1300.0,1600.0,55000.0,12000.0,6500.0,5200.0,3800.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,2900.0,3800.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,2800.0,2600.0,3000.0,2400.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,2500.0,2200.0,2600.0,2800.0,3000.0,11000.0,5500.0,3600.0,5200.0,3200.0,3000.0,3200.0,3400.0,3100.0,3200.0,3000.0,3400.0,6500.0,4200.0,3200.0,3000.0,2800.0,3200.0,3400.0,3200.0,3000.0,3400.0,3600.0,6200.0,4200.0,16000.0,6500.0,4800.0,4200.0,4500.0,4800.0,4400.0,4200.0,5200.0,5600.0,5400.0,5600.0,6000.0,6200.0,5800.0,5400.0,5600.0,6200.0,6000.0,5800.0,6200.0,6400.0,6800.0,24000.0,14000.0,72000.0,22000.0,9000.0,7200.0,6600.0,6400.0,6000.0],"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017":[220.0,200.0,210.0,230.0,240.0,210.0,230.0,220.0,240.0,250.0,260.0,240.0,260.0,240.0,250.0,270.0,280.0,260.0,270.0,260.0,280.0,300.0,310.0,290.0,320.0,300.0,310.0,330.0,340.0,320.0,330.0,320.0,350.0,360.0,380.0,360.0,85000.0,15000.0,6000.0,12000.0,5000.0,3500.0,2800.0,2400.0,2600.0,2300.0,2100.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1300.0,1400.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,4500.0,2500.0,2000.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1900.0,1800.0,1700.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1700.0,1600.0,1500.0,1700.0,1600.0,1800.0,1700.0,18000.0,6500.0,3500.0,2800.0,2500.0,2200.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2100.0,2200.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,3500.0,75000.0,25000.0,8000.0,4000.0,3000.0,2700.0,2500.0],"meta/muse-ember":[2100.0,1950.0,2050.0,2000.0,2600.0,1750.0,1700.0,1800.0,2100.0,2150.0,1900.0,1750.0,2200.0,2050.0,2150.0,2100.0,2050.0,1850.0,2300.0,2800.0,2250.0,2300.0,2050.0,1900.0,2300.0,2200.0,2250.0,2350.0,2200.0,2000.0,1950.0,2100.0,2350.0,2400.0,2200.0,2000.0,2400.0,2300.0,2450.0,2400.0,2500.0,2200.0,2150.0,2300.0,2550.0,2600.0,2400.0,2200.0,2500.0,2450.0,2600.0,2800.0,2400.0,2150.0,2100.0,2250.0,2500.0,2450.0,2350.0,2150.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,2850.0,4200.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,2900.0,2850.0,2650.0,2400.0,2900.0,2800.0,2950.0,2900.0,2850.0,2600.0,2550.0,2700.0,3000.0,3050.0,2850.0,2600.0,3100.0,3000.0,3200.0,4700.0,3400.0,3000.0,2950.0,3100.0,3300.0,5200.0,3800.0,3100.0,3500.0,3400.0,5100.0,8900.0,5600.0,3600.0,3500.0,3700.0,4000.0,3950.0,3700.0,3400.0,6200.0,4800.0,5500.0,4600.0,4200.0,3800.0,3700.0,3900.0,4300.0,4400.0,4100.0,3800.0],"mistralai/mistral-large-4-0":[4600.0,4300.0,4500.0,4400.0,4700.0,4300.0,4200.0,4400.0,4600.0,4700.0,4600.0,4100.0,5000.0,4800.0,5100.0,5300.0,172000.0,89000.0,58000.0,43000.0,35000.0,29000.0,26000.0,23500.0,21500.0,19500.0,18500.0,17800.0,38000.0,22000.0,30000.0,52000.0,36000.0,22000.0,17500.0,15500.0,15000.0,13800.0,13500.0,13000.0,24000.0,14500.0,13200.0,12800.0,12500.0,12800.0,12300.0,11200.0,12200.0,12000.0,12800.0,13200.0,22000.0,13800.0,13000.0,12700.0,12900.0,13100.0,12600.0,11800.0,12800.0,12500.0,13200.0,13000.0,23500.0,14200.0,13400.0,13100.0,13000.0,13200.0,12700.0,11900.0,12400.0,12000.0,12300.0,11900.0,20500.0,12600.0,11800.0,11500.0,11400.0,11600.0,11200.0,10400.0,11000.0,10700.0,10900.0,10600.0,19000.0,11200.0,12000.0,10800.0,10500.0,10600.0,10300.0,9600.0,9900.0,9600.0,9800.0,9500.0,17500.0,9900.0,9400.0,9200.0,9100.0,9300.0,9000.0,8400.0,8800.0,8600.0,8700.0,8500.0,15500.0,8800.0,8400.0,8200.0,8100.0,8200.0,8000.0,7500.0],"minimax/minimax-m3.1-flash":[850.0,900.0,1050.0,1250.0,1600.0,2600.0,1900.0,1450.0,2100.0,1650.0,1500.0,1550.0,1500.0,2000.0,1700.0,1750.0,1900.0,2850.0,1750.0,1650.0,1800.0,3200.0,1800.0,1750.0,1900.0,2000.0,2300.0,1950.0,2050.0,2700.0,7500.0,9500.0,4500.0,2250.0,1950.0,2100.0,1900.0,2050.0,1950.0,1850.0,2050.0,2550.0,6500.0,4500.0,2350.0,2100.0,1950.0,2100.0,2050.0,2100.0,2000.0,1700.0,1750.0,2100.0,2050.0,7000.0,5500.0,2400.0,2250.0,2400.0,2350.0,2500.0,2600.0,2650.0,2850.0,3200.0,5500.0,10000.0,8000.0,14500.0,6000.0,4000.0,6000.0,4000.0,3300.0,4500.0,9000.0,7500.0,6500.0,4000.0,3600.0,7000.0,5500.0,4200.0,12500.0,9500.0,3800.0,4500.0,3700.0,4500.0,5000.0,3600.0,3000.0,3200.0,2900.0,3000.0,3000.0,8000.0,4800.0,3500.0,3000.0,3500.0,2900.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2500.0,2600.0,2700.0,6500.0,3100.0,2850.0,6500.0,3000.0,2700.0,2500.0,2400.0,2300.0,2400.0],"claude-sonnet-5-5":[1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1400.0,1500.0,1450.0,1500.0,1500.0,1550.0,1450.0,1600.0,1550.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1550.0,1700.0,1600.0,1650.0,1800.0,1700.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1600.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1650.0,1600.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1800.0,1750.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1650.0,1800.0,1700.0,1700.0,1600.0,1600.0,1650.0,1700.0,1700.0,1700.0,1750.0,1700.0,1700.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2600.0,2300.0,2200.0,2100.0,2100.0,2300.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2100.0,2300.0,2400.0,2200.0,2100.0,2400.0,2200.0,2200.0,2100.0,2200.0,2300.0,3500.0,3000.0,3200.0,3800.0,3500.0,3200.0,6500.0,4500.0,4200.0,3800.0,3600.0,3500.0,9500.0,6500.0,5500.0,5200.0,4800.0,4500.0,4400.0,4300.0,4200.0,4000.0,4800.0,4300.0,4200.0,4600.0,4500.0,4200.0,4000.0,3800.0,3800.0,3900.0,3700.0,3600.0,3500.0,3400.0],"qwen/qwen3.8-flash":[780.0,720.0,700.0,730.0,760.0,820.0,790.0,750.0,880.0,840.0,800.0,950.0,1100.0,1050.0,980.0,1000.0,1150.0,2400.0,2100.0,2600.0,3800.0,2300.0,1700.0,1800.0,3000.0,2000.0,1600.0,1500.0,1600.0,1800.0,1900.0,2700.0,4200.0,2400.0,1800.0,2000.0,2100.0,1700.0,1500.0,1450.0,1550.0,1750.0,1850.0,1700.0,2200.0,1900.0,1700.0,2100.0,1800.0,1600.0,1300.0,1100.0,1200.0,1300.0,1450.0,1500.0,1700.0,1550.0,1400.0,1700.0,1900.0,1650.0,1500.0,1550.0,1600.0,1750.0,1900.0,1800.0,2100.0,2000.0,1900.0,2700.0,2900.0,2400.0,2000.0,1800.0,1900.0,2000.0,2200.0,2400.0,2900.0,2500.0,2200.0,2700.0,2800.0,2200.0,3500.0,2500.0,2300.0,2500.0,2700.0,3000.0,3400.0,3000.0,2700.0,3100.0,3300.0,2900.0,2600.0,2500.0,2700.0,3000.0,3200.0,3600.0,7200.0,4600.0,3800.0,8500.0,12000.0,9500.0,5200.0,4300.0,4200.0,4500.0,5000.0,6200.0,8400.0,6900.0,5800.0,9100.0],"openai/gpt-6-luna":[170.0,155.0,180.0,165.0,195.0,210.0,185.0,175.0,205.0,190.0,180.0,160.0,185.0,170.0,205.0,190.0,220.0,235.0,210.0,195.0,230.0,215.0,200.0,180.0,210.0,195.0,225.0,215.0,250.0,275.0,245.0,230.0,260.0,245.0,235.0,220.0,16000.0,5200.0,2800.0,2100.0,1450.0,1100.0,950.0,850.0,900.0,1050.0,750.0,650.0,620.0,580.0,650.0,720.0,610.0,570.0,590.0,640.0,1050.0,780.0,620.0,540.0,570.0,540.0,610.0,700.0,680.0,620.0,590.0,560.0,640.0,610.0,580.0,520.0,540.0,510.0,570.0,550.0,600.0,620.0,560.0,530.0,590.0,570.0,540.0,490.0,520.0,500.0,550.0,580.0,2600.0,1250.0,800.0,650.0,600.0,620.0,570.0,520.0,540.0,510.0,570.0,550.0,610.0,650.0,590.0,560.0,630.0,610.0,580.0,530.0,850.0,700.0,820.0,1100.0,2100.0,3800.0,1900.0,1050.0,800.0,720.0,680.0,620.0],"claude-haiku-5-5":[170.0,165.0,175.0,170.0,160.0,155.0,150.0,145.0,165.0,170.0,175.0,160.0,180.0,185.0,190.0,180.0,185.0,190.0,175.0,170.0,185.0,200.0,190.0,175.0,185.0,180.0,190.0,185.0,190.0,185.0,170.0,165.0,180.0,185.0,180.0,170.0,190.0,185.0,195.0,190.0,200.0,195.0,180.0,175.0,190.0,195.0,190.0,180.0,200.0,195.0,210.0,205.0,215.0,210.0,195.0,190.0,200.0,205.0,200.0,190.0,200.0,195.0,205.0,200.0,210.0,205.0,190.0,185.0,195.0,200.0,195.0,185.0,190.0,185.0,195.0,190.0,200.0,195.0,180.0,175.0,185.0,190.0,185.0,175.0,185.0,180.0,190.0,185.0,195.0,190.0,175.0,170.0,180.0,185.0,180.0,170.0,180.0,175.0,185.0,180.0,190.0,185.0,170.0,165.0,175.0,180.0,175.0,165.0,175.0,170.0,180.0,175.0,185.0,180.0,165.0,160.0,170.0,175.0,170.0,160.0]}}],"input_sha256":{"research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/charts.json":"faa657343ec82d448090ec9c55fa46800a5e75fd538d10d7aad11cdb35ccb98e","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/leaderboard.json":"4453180931bb9118273175e2d1b061a0ac3e1c7f74be1a8aca5476ba983a6661","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/score.py":"bd058460443c109b2f78e1099341dc138e6f329a7c734b6cdcdbb08c2cfbb70f","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/claude-fable-5-2.json":"b63fe509afdc5d015f8ec5b06f13d4e50defaf7e58f4da29c4e5285e38f04e3e","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/claude-haiku-5-5.json":"2e5c2aaf183326552fea2eec81a8c2b7a703a40313b9658175467b752c83d397","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/claude-opus-5-5.json":"31df6e42fe0c02d07cf0c0653f58363a7dabc4e6992e89a3df0edbba5918a7c5","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/claude-sonnet-5-5.json":"a817ea90caacd85080226f34cd41dc284702a7ba215d96f777842bd69c0243ed","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/deepseek-deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017.json":"0e18f12304263f68ebc7adaaf882b11396aaf7e5aa7129b27a8e836da8087201","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/google-gemini-3.8-flash.json":"1c615ce64f6b4af3d249677c6eb5219fbed1cf5325403cc7712cfd954827eb89","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/google-gemini-4-carbon.json":"bdca1bb0210ff85b7ca7f65ce4ec2c8214d4e8d6d349be9a9b582220cb52d0ac","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/meta-muse-ember.json":"b93aec2010af92b8fbdbb5cb7e51d4b9acc4e3df040917fbde07655e911ba130","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/meta-muse-spark-1.3.json":"cd2eb73e04f50f7c595917d3e0641f3b27501a7adeb9898948946d5536fc2de3","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/minimax-minimax-m3.1-flash.json":"4c55e03038cd71909c4e688ff3cb5c6b585695daea9ccb0df004c213fd40b224","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/mistralai-mistral-large-4-0.json":"6d6182be64c1147b34fb3f17b0440fa63dd789a26216c65c727775dce92ee131","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/openai-gpt-6-luna.json":"fc33ee6395eab633176e4b2ecf28775dae41a4c7419c1b1bff403ac7d9dcbfb4","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/openai-gpt-6.1-terra.json":"9e0d478587f09090c3f8748e93afa8f0ca7b17ad697d554b0e87d057ee2b3167","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/qwen-qwen3.8-flash.json":"ff30e868f90f1e22f90e2affef72fb6d8a77ea6f206f30788470ef4c73863eaf","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/xiaomi-mimo-v2.6-pro.json":"a1ded53247bf8f289e17327609b61a3693bbf3ee26951b0a7dc5796c1862ccba","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/full/results/z-ai-glm-5.3-flash.json":"4b610f196886966a6180d9d6a20e276138c923a4670b8a766136b9d1f9d9cbd2","research/chart-recall-pilot-2026-11-10/run_model.py":"fdb97cf561ec775df0606bd5677b2032955f56f1dda54bbc393b52e59ebb94f9"}}